[top]
000
FXUS65 KLKN 212207
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY...FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ANY ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NE NV WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE IN VALLEY
AREAS.
WINDS WILL BE A BIGGER CONCERN ON SUNDAY AS A 100+KT JET BRUSHES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRFARW MODEL SHOWING WINDS OVER AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEVADA BECOMING VERY WINDY...WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 55-65 MPH IN PLACES LIKE RUBY VALLEY AND CLOVER
VALLEY.
WINDS AND PRECIP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...KICKING OFF OFF A LONG STRETCH OF DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STORM SYSTEM IMPINGING UPON THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
EXTENDED DURING THE PERIOD AS MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STILL QUITE
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD TONIGHT...WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ELKO COUNTY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST NEVADA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF A
KU31-KP68-KELY LINE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500-5500
FEET...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
99/86/86
[top]
000
FXUS65 KVEF 211756 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME AND
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRUSH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH MCCARRAN AIRPORT
BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH THIS
MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. IN MORNING UPDATE WILL MASSAGE THE WINDS AND
REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THIS MORNINGS FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS BROUGHT
THE WINDS OVER TO THE NORTHWEST. THEY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOT OR LESS
TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEER OVER TO THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT THEY WILL GO TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED AND ABOVE
20KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY ARE WINDS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED PREFRONTAL...WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED
IN COVERAGE AND ABOVE 20KFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...250 AM PST SAT NOV 21...UPPER TROUGH WHICH
BROUGHT WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
DROPPING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CANCEL/EXPIRE THE WIND
ADVISORIES. SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS TODAY BEHIND THE TROUGH BUT NOTHING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY TO FORECAST AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ARE WAY UP BUT COOLING WAS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH. RAISED
INHERITED TEMPS UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM START TO THE DAY
AND GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN AVN AND NAM12 MOS
GUIDANCE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES INTO IDAHO AND NORTHEAST NEVADA. MAIN MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH AND JUST EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A REINFORCEMENT
OF NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...SO MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THE
GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID WEEK AND LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THERE ARE STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE NEXT FRIDAY AND BEYOND...WITH THE GFS INDICTING RIDGING
AND THE EC AND GEM SHOWING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH. DECIDED TO PLAY THE
CLIMO CARD THIS FAR OUT...BUT IF THE GEM/EC SOLUTION SHOW ANY
CONTINUITY...AND MORE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TREND THAT WAY...WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE TO DROP TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE POPS BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/JACQUES/HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 211151
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
350 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH FROM TIME TO TIME AND
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRUSH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY
AREAS YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN DROPPING OFF EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WILL CANCEL/EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORIES. SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS TODAY BEHIND THE TROUGH BUT
NOTHING NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
FORECAST AS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE WAY UP BUT COOLING WAS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE TROUGH. RAISED INHERITED TEMPS UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND GENERALLY WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN AVN AND NAM12 MOS GUIDANCE. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO IDAHO AND NORTHEAST NEVADA. MAIN
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH AND JUST EXPECT SOME HIGH
CLOUDS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A
REINFORCEMENT OF NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY...SO MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THE
GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID WEEK AND LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THERE ARE STILL MAJOR DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE NEXT FRIDAY AND BEYOND...WITH THE GFS INDICTING RIDGING
AND THE EC AND GEM SHOWING A RATHER DEEP TROUGH. DECIDED TO PLAY THE
CLIMO CARD THIS FAR OUT...BUT IF THE GEM/EC SOLUTION SHOW ANY
CONTINUITY...AND MORE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TREND THAT WAY...WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE TO DROP TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE POPS BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY....WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE
FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MCCARRAN AROUND 10 AM THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...THE CURRENT GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SWING TO THE NORTHWEST...AND PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREFRONTAL WINDS...BUT
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN NORTH OF
THE AREA...WINDS SHOULD CHANGE OVER FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND ABOVE
15KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY ARE WINDS...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED PREFRONTAL...WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND
ABOVE 15KFT...AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE.
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
[top]
000
FXUS65 KREV 211135
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
335 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
KRGX RADAR LOOP IS INDICATING A NARROW BAND OF PROBABLE SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE...WHILE FARTHER NORTH LIGHT SNOW IS
LIKELY OCCURRING IN FAR NWRN NV AND SURPRISE VALLEY. NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS FROM ALTURAS REPORTED LIGHT SNOW WHILE MESOWEST DATA
FROM CEDARVILLE AND FT BIDWELL HAVE ACCUMULATED 0.01 TO 0.02 INCH
OF PRECIP PER HOUR SINCE LATE FRI EVENING. WEAK SECONDARY VORT
CENTER MOVING ACROSS NRN CA ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP APPEARS
TO BE THE FORCE BEHIND THIS LIGHT SNOW. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE
REGION BY DAYBREAK SO ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WIND DOWN
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS THRU 15Z FOR A SMALL PART OF NWRN NV.
OTHERWISE TODAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE
40S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE NWRN US TONIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ONLY ISOLD
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF NERN CA-NWRN NV
AND PORTIONS OF THE TAHOE BASIN LATE TONIGHT THRU SUN MORNING.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EFFECT BEING INCREASED WINDS. 700 MB FLOW
BRIEFLY REACHES 50 KT BTWN 12Z-18Z SUNDAY WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN RIDGE WINDS. WHILE THE PEAK SPEEDS ARE
UNLIKELY TO COME CLOSE TO THE 100+ MPH VALUES THAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 70-80 MPH GUSTS IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY. WITH SOME MIXING LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH. LAKE WIND ADVY
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR BOTH TAHOE AND PYRAMID UNLESS NEXT
RUN OF GUIDANCE BACKS OFF ON THE 700 MB FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO THIS MIXING...WHICH WILL
PARTIALLY OFFSET THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
FOR SUN NGT-MONDAY...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER CA-NV AND PRODUCE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
WEAK NE SFC FLOW AND WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL PRODUCE
INVERSION CONDITIONS RESULTING IN LIMITED HEATING FOR VALLEYS BUT
PUSH TEMPS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM SUNDAY.
MJD
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST AS
THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES. RIDGE AXIS SHOULD PROGRESS
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC ENERGY TO ENTER THE WEST COAST...FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND INCREASED WINDS LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS...WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE SIERRA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN INVERSIONS IN THE NEVADA VALLEYS WITH
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO PREVENT A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND.
ECMWF REMAINS MORE CONSISTENT AND AGGRESSIVE WITH ENERGY ENTERING
THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THUS HAVE LEFT THE LOW CHANCE OR
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS
AND IT ENSEMBLES ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE ENERGY...WITH A WARMER
AND DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS WOULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA AND FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS.
WINDS MAY INCREASE AFTER 08Z TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
OREGON. GUSTS IN THE VALLEYS COULD REACH 30KTS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE NORTHERN SIERRA RIDGE WINDS NEAR 40-50 KTS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KLKN 211048
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
248 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND THE THREAT OF
LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. &&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
POPS AND QPF FOR NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST
INTO UTAH. MOUNTAINS OF ELKO COUNTY COULD RECEIVE UP TO AN INCH
OF NEW SNOW TODAY...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN VALLEY AREAS OF NORTHERN NEVADA HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER A SECOND
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWESTERN NEVADA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BRINGING A RETURNED THREAT OF SHOWERS TO HUMBOLDT...NORTHERN
LANDER AND EUREKA...AND ELKO COUNTY. ONCE AGAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE IN VALLEY
AREAS.
WINDS WILL BE A BIGGER CONCERN ON SUNDAY AS A 100+KT H3 JET
BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY OR WINDY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER RESOLUTION WRFARW MODEL SHOWING WINDS
OVER AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEVADA
BECOMING VERY WINDY...WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 50-60KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS AND PRECIP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...KICKOFF OFF A LONG STRETCH OF DAYS WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES
FOR DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MODELS
DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER. THE EURO IS MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORT WAVE ON FRIDAY TAKING IT ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPING OUR AREA DRY.
MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHORT
WAVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. CURRENT FCST ALREADY MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EURO SOLUTION AND CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NRN NV FRIDAY SO WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGES TO EXISTING FCST. &&
.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NERN NV THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NERN NV. CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. &&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
96/91/91
000
FXUS65 KLKN 210803
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1203 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY. A SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINNING
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. &&
.UPDATE...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN MOST AREAS OF CENTRAL NEVADA
EARLIER THIS EVENING...ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO END ON
SCHEDULE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
TONIGHT...EXPECT LOCALIZED AREAS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...MAINLY ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES ALTHOUGH FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VALLEY AREAS OF NORTHERN NEVADA.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 303 PM /
SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NOCAL/NW NV.
THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE
BEEN OVER CENTRAL NV WHERE PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 50-55 MPH HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED. THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN STIRRING UP A LOT OF DUST
AROUND THE AREA. KWMC HAS HAD THE LOWEST VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
DUST TODAY...DOWN TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES. WITH THE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL NV UNTIL 8PM. SO FAR
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A NEED FOR A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY OVER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
AND SHOULD ACTUALLY BE IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CLOUDS/PRECIP MOVE INTO THE AREA. STILL APPEARS AS IF REV`S AREA
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN NV TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...AND ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD END UP WITH
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW...BUT THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NV WILL BE
LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OVERNIGHT.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF NE NV BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NE NV.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CLIP EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA AS
WELL. TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE BIT AND GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE
BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH MAINLY
THANKSGIVING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AND
WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AVIATION...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BLOWING
DUST WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF A KU31-KP68-KELY LINE. WINDS
WILL EASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 5500
TO 6000 FEET ACROSS ELKO COUNTY AND 4500 FEET OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND ANY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW. LOOK FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR
-SHRA/-SHSN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 21/07Z.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
96/99/84
000
FXUS65 KVEF 210738
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1138 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF INYO COUNTY CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL GRAZE THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE OVER NV ZONE 14...BUT WILL
PERSIST OVER NV 17 A WHILE LONGER. WILL UPDATE TO EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 4 AM. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ADVISORIES FOR
NV 19 AND 20. WINDS WERE ALREADY HITTING CRITERIA AT RED ROCK CANYON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
341 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE WEST HAS
BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE PAC NW AND
NORCAL/NORTHERN NEVADA. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD
LATER TONIGHT IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THAT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
CONCERNED...THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MOST OF
THE AREA BEING RAINSHADOWED. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
WILL BARELY SPILL OVER INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA BUT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THAT...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL JUST BE MARKED BY SOME CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT IN THE REST OF THE AREA.
WIND PRODUCTS PRESENTLY OUT WERE LEFT AS IS...AS THEY APPEAR TO BE
WORKING OUT. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE ARW MODEL SHOW THAT GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE SIERRA MAY MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE
OWENS VALLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE
WARNING LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE FELT AT THE CREST AND DOWN TO MID-
SLOPE. THE LACK OF AN INVERSION ABOVE RIDGETOP SHOULD BE WHAT KEEPS
THE STRONGER WINDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER SLOPES. ELSEWHERE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WE HAVE KEPT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST WHERE
ADVISORIES ARE OUT FURTHER WEST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...NAMELY THE ARW...SHOW A
POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS TAKING PLACE IN A
NARROW WINDOW. THE NMM MODEL WAS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ISENTROPE
FOLDING...BUT STILL SUPPORTED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. SO A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE
FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. SEE RNONPWVEF FOR DETAILS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR TOMORROW...BUT
HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VALLEY INVERSIONS SETTING UP AND WEAK MIXING...WHICH WILL LIMIT
WARMING. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW SUNDAY MORNING AND
DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN IDAHO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WE FAVORED
THE ECMWF WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS
SYSTEM. THUS FOR SUNDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO DRIFT IN AHEAD OF
THIS...BUT WARMING LOOKS LIMITED AS MIXING IS WEAK AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE GETTING WIPED OUT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT NO HEADLINES LOOK NEEDED FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY A LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON NORTH BREEZE
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
THANKSGIVING DAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. ECMWF THE STRONGEST
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SRN NV FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE GFS
IT BRUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO DIFFERENCE HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. BEST ESTIMATE PLACES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MCCARRAN BETWEEN 8 AM - 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A ROTOR CIRCULATION PRODUCING
MODERATE TO SEVERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A
THICKER VEIL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR NVZ019 AND 020 /WEST
OF BUFFALO DRIVE/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR NVZ017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI/PIERCE
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 210555
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF INYO COUNTY CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL GRAZE THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR NV 14 AND NV 17 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40-50 MPH WERE PERSISTING.
ALLOWED THE WARNING FOR CA 519 AND THE ADVISORY FOR CA 520 AND CA
521 TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM...AND MADE NO CHANGE TO THE ADVISORY FOR NV
19 AND NV 20 WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT AT 10 PM. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
341 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE WEST HAS
BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE PAC NW AND
NORCAL/NORTHERN NEVADA. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD
LATER TONIGHT IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THAT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
CONCERNED...THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MOST OF
THE AREA BEING RAINSHADOWED. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
WILL BARELY SPILL OVER INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA BUT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THAT...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL JUST BE MARKED BY SOME CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT IN THE REST OF THE AREA.
WIND PRODUCTS PRESENTLY OUT WERE LEFT AS IS...AS THEY APPEAR TO BE
WORKING OUT. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE ARW MODEL SHOW THAT GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE SIERRA MAY MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE
OWENS VALLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE
WARNING LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE FELT AT THE CREST AND DOWN TO MID-
SLOPE. THE LACK OF AN INVERSION ABOVE RIDGETOP SHOULD BE WHAT KEEPS
THE STRONGER WINDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER SLOPES. ELSEWHERE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WE HAVE KEPT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST WHERE
ADVISORIES ARE OUT FURTHER WEST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...NAMELY THE ARW...SHOW A
POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS TAKING PLACE IN A
NARROW WINDOW. THE NMM MODEL WAS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ISENTROPE
FOLDING...BUT STILL SUPPORTED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. SO A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE
FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. SEE RNONPWVEF FOR DETAILS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR TOMORROW...BUT
HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VALLEY INVERSIONS SETTING UP AND WEAK MIXING...WHICH WILL LIMIT
WARMING. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW SUNDAY MORNING AND
DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN IDAHO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WE FAVORED
THE ECMWF WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS
SYSTEM. THUS FOR SUNDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO DRIFT IN AHEAD OF
THIS...BUT WARMING LOOKS LIMITED AS MIXING IS WEAK AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE GETTING WIPED OUT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT NO HEADLINES LOOK NEEDED FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY A LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON NORTH BREEZE
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
THANKSGIVING DAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. ECMWF THE STRONGEST
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SRN NV FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE GFS
IT BRUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO DIFFERENCE HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. BEST ESTIMATE PLACES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MCCARRAN BETWEEN 8 AM - 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A ROTOR CIRCULATION PRODUCING
MODERATE TO SEVERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A
THICKER VEIL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR NVZ019 AND 020 /WEST
OF BUFFALO DRIVE/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NVZ014-017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI/PIERCE
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 210530 AAB
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
930 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
SYSTEM WINDING DOWN FOR OUR AREA AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SRN NV
AND ERN GREAT BASIN AND DYNAMICS SHIFT WELL OFF TO THE EAST. RDG
WINDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS NEAR 100 MPH. HOWEVER EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY OVRNGT. WINDS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS CONT TO DECREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY AND
WARNING LVLS. WL ALLOW THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM
FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. WL ALSO CLEAN UP ZONE WORDING WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SIERRA CREST AND NR THE OR
BORDER. REMAINDER OF FCST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES OUT BY 10 PM.
HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
CANCELING WINTER STORM WARNINGS EARLY AS STEADY HEAVY SNOW HAS
ENDED. STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOCALIZED AND 2 INCHES AT MOST.
WILL ALSO CANCEL DUST STORM WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
RAPIDLY NEAR FALLON AND LOVELOCK AND THERE ARE NO FURTHER REPORTS
OF BLOWING DUST. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MONO/MINERAL
AND LET THEM RUN THEIR COURSE AS GUSTS ARE STILL AROUND 60 MPH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS THERE. UPDATES OUT BY 715 PM. WALLMANN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG
A DENIO TO MARKLEEVILLE LINE. NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT IS WHERE
PRECIP BAND IS WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW IN SIERRA WITH IT A
LITTLE LIGHTER IN LEE SIDE DESERTS. WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DUST STORM OVER BASIN AND RANGE. BLOWING DUST PLUMES
SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR IMAGERY.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...WARNINGS
LOOK GOOD. WIND STATEMENTS ALSO LOOK GOOD TO EXPIRE FOR RENO/TAHOE
AREA AT 4 PM...WITH WARNINGS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THRU 10 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 60-70 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD
OF FRONT.
AS FRONT CLEARS AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
AND WIND WITH FLAT RIDGE FOR SAT. WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH BY THE AREA
SUN MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH ROUGHLY. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HOWEVER...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY.
AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SUN...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL WARM IN MTNS BETTER THAN VALLEYS WHICH WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE INVERSIONS. WALLMANN
LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING DEEPER AND FASTER. LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS...THE TAIL END OF THE RIDGE KEEPS MOST
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCES MENTIONED
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO OVERALL MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
LABELLE
AVIATION...
STRONG AND FAST MOVING STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST...BUT THE EMPHASIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KWMC TO KRNO THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO KMMH. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCLUDING KLOL AND KNFL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS 40-50 KTS AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH 02Z. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCLUDING KRNO AND THE REST OF THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES IN...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DECREASE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS AND BEST GUESS ON TIMING IS TO OCCUR
FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z.
FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS INCLUDING KTRK AND KTVL...SNOW QUICKLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z HOWEVER SHSN AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENT ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. IF KTRK
CLEARS UP FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z. JORDAN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 210428
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
828 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF INYO COUNTY CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL GRAZE THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.UPDATE...SURFACE OBS AND SPOTTERS REPORT WINDS HAD SUBSIDED IN CA
519...SO PLAN TO ALLOW THE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. FARTHER
SOUTH...WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN NV 19...SO THE WIND
ADVISORY STARTING AT 10 PM THERE ALSO LOOKS GOOD. THE PROBLEM AREA
IS IN BETWEEN...WHERE WINDS WERE STILL GUSTING ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF CA 520...NV 14 AND NV 17. THESE ADVISORIES
ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM...AND WILL MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL
WHETHER TO EXTEND OR NOT. UPDATE WILL BE OUT AROUND 10 PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
341 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE WEST HAS
BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE PAC NW AND
NORCAL/NORTHERN NEVADA. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD
LATER TONIGHT IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THAT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
CONCERNED...THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MOST OF
THE AREA BEING RAINSHADOWED. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
WILL BARELY SPILL OVER INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA BUT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THAT...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL JUST BE MARKED BY SOME CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT IN THE REST OF THE AREA.
WIND PRODUCTS PRESENTLY OUT WERE LEFT AS IS...AS THEY APPEAR TO BE
WORKING OUT. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE ARW MODEL SHOW THAT GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE SIERRA MAY MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE
OWENS VALLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE
WARNING LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE FELT AT THE CREST AND DOWN TO MID-
SLOPE. THE LACK OF AN INVERSION ABOVE RIDGETOP SHOULD BE WHAT KEEPS
THE STRONGER WINDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER SLOPES. ELSEWHERE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WE HAVE KEPT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST WHERE
ADVISORIES ARE OUT FURTHER WEST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...NAMELY THE ARW...SHOW A
POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS TAKING PLACE IN A
NARROW WINDOW. THE NMM MODEL WAS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ISENTROPE
FOLDING...BUT STILL SUPPORTED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. SO A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE
FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. SEE RNONPWVEF FOR DETAILS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR TOMORROW...BUT
HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VALLEY INVERSIONS SETTING UP AND WEAK MIXING...WHICH WILL LIMIT
WARMING. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW SUNDAY MORNING AND
DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN IDAHO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WE FAVORED
THE ECMWF WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS
SYSTEM. THUS FOR SUNDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO DRIFT IN AHEAD OF
THIS...BUT WARMING LOOKS LIMITED AS MIXING IS WEAK AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE GETTING WIPED OUT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT NO HEADLINES LOOK NEEDED FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY A LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON NORTH BREEZE
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
THANKSGIVING DAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. ECMWF THE STRONGEST
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SRN NV FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE GFS
IT BRUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO DIFFERENCE HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. BEST ESTIMATE PLACES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MCCARRAN BETWEEN 8 AM - 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A ROTOR CIRCULATION PRODUCING
MODERATE TO SEVERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A
THICKER VEIL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
NVZ019 AND 020 /WEST OF BUFFALO DRIVE/.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ014-017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ519.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ520-521.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI/PIERCE
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 210257 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
657 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
CANCELING WINTER STORM WARNINGS EARLY AS STEADY HEAVY SNOW HAS
ENDED. STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOCALIZED AND 2 INCHES AT MOST.
WILL ALSO CANCEL DUST STORM WARNING EARLY AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
RAPIDLY NEAR FALLON AND LOVELOCK AND THERE ARE NO FURTHER REPORTS
OF BLOWING DUST. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR MONO/MINERAL
AND LET THEM RUN THEIR COURSE AS GUSTS ARE STILL AROUND 60 MPH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS THERE. UPDATES OUT BY 715 PM. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG
A DENIO TO MARKLEEVILLE LINE. NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT IS WHERE
PRECIP BAND IS WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW IN SIERRA WITH IT A
LITTLE LIGHTER IN LEE SIDE DESERTS. WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DUST STORM OVER BASIN AND RANGE. BLOWING DUST PLUMES
SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR IMAGERY.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...WARNINGS
LOOK GOOD. WIND STATEMENTS ALSO LOOK GOOD TO EXPIRE FOR RENO/TAHOE
AREA AT 4 PM...WITH WARNINGS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THRU 10 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 60-70 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD
OF FRONT.
AS FRONT CLEARS AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
AND WIND WITH FLAT RIDGE FOR SAT. WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH BY THE AREA
SUN MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH ROUGHLY. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HOWEVER...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY.
AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SUN...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL WARM IN MTNS BETTER THAN VALLEYS WHICH WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE INVERSIONS. WALLMANN
LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING DEEPER AND FASTER. LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS...THE TAIL END OF THE RIDGE KEEPS MOST
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCES MENTIONED
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO OVERALL MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
LABELLE
AVIATION...
STRONG AND FAST MOVING STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST...BUT THE EMPHASIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KWMC TO KRNO THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO KMMH. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCLUDING KLOL AND KNFL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS 40-50 KTS AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH 02Z. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCLUDING KRNO AND THE REST OF THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES IN...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DECREASE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS AND BEST GUESS ON TIMING IS TO OCCUR
FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z.
FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS INCLUDING KTRK AND KTVL...SNOW QUICKLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z HOWEVER SHSN AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. IF KTRK CLEARS
UP FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 15Z. JORDAN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 210043 CCA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
341 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF INYO COUNTY CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL GRAZE THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE WEST HAS
BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE PAC NW AND
NORCAL/NORTHERN NEVADA. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD
LATER TONIGHT IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THAT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
CONCERNED...THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MOST OF
THE AREA BEING RAINSHADOWED. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
WILL BARELY SPILL OVER INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA BUT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THAT...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL JUST BE MARKED BY SOME CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT IN THE REST OF THE AREA.
WIND PRODUCTS PRESENTLY OUT WERE LEFT AS IS...AS THEY APPEAR TO BE
WORKING OUT. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE ARW MODEL SHOW THAT GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE SIERRA MAY MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE
OWENS VALLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE
WARNING LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE FELT AT THE CREST AND DOWN TO MID-
SLOPE. THE LACK OF AN INVERSION ABOVE RIDGETOP SHOULD BE WHAT KEEPS
THE STRONGER WINDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER SLOPES. ELSEWHERE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WE HAVE KEPT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST WHERE
ADVISORIES ARE OUT FURTHER WEST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...NAMELY THE ARW...SHOW A
POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS TAKING PLACE IN A
NARROW WINDOW. THE NMM MODEL WAS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ISENTROPE
FOLDING...BUT STILL SUPPORTED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. SO A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE
FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. SEE RNONPWVEF FOR DETAILS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR TOMORROW...BUT
HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VALLEY INVERSIONS SETTING UP AND WEAK MIXING...WHICH WILL LIMIT
WARMING. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW SUNDAY MORNING AND
DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN IDAHO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WE FAVORED
THE ECMWF WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS
SYSTEM. THUS FOR SUNDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO DRIFT IN AHEAD OF
THIS...BUT WARMING LOOKS LIMITED AS MIXING IS WEAK AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE GETTING WIPED OUT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT NO HEADLINES LOOK NEEDED FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY A LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON NORTH BREEZE
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
THANKSGIVING DAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. ECMWF THE STRONGEST
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SRN NV FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE GFS
IT BRUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO DIFFERENCE HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. BEST ESTIMATE PLACES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MCCARRAN BETWEEN 8 AM - 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A ROTOR CIRCULATION PRODUCING
MODERATE TO SEVERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A
THICKER VEIL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
NVZ019 WEST OF BUFFALO DRIVE-020.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ014-017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ519.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ520-521.
&&
$$
STACHELSKI/PIERCE
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 202341
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
341 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF INYO COUNTY CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
CO0LER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL GRAZE THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATE
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE LATEST STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE WEST HAS
BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE PAC NW AND
NORCAL/NORTHERN NEVADA. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD
LATER TONIGHT IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THAT
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE
CONCERNED...THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MOST OF
THE AREA BEING RAINSHADOWED. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PRECIPITATION
WILL BARELY SPILL OVER INTO THE EASTERN SIERRA BUT ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THAT...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY LATER TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL JUST BE MARKED BY SOME CLOUDS
AND A WIND SHIFT IN THE REST OF THE AREA.
WIND PRODUCTS PRESENTLY OUT WERE LEFT AS IS...AS THEY APPEAR TO BE
WORKING OUT. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE ARW MODEL SHOW THAT GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE SIERRA MAY MAKE IT DOWN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE
OWENS VALLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE
WARNING LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE FELT AT THE CREST AND DOWN TO MID-
SLOPE. THE LACK OF AN INVERSION ABOVE RIDGETOP SHOULD BE WHAT KEEPS
THE STRONGER WINDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER SLOPES. ELSEWHERE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WE HAVE KEPT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST WHERE
ADVISORIES ARE OUT FURTHER WEST DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY
ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...NAMELY THE ARW...SHOW A
POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS TAKING PLACE IN A
NARROW WINDOW. THE NMM MODEL WAS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ISENTROPE
FOLDING...BUT STILL SUPPORTED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS. SO A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE
FAR WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. SEE RNONPWVEF FOR DETAILS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES IN FOR TOMORROW...BUT
HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
VALLEY INVERSIONS SETTING UP AND WEAK MIXING...WHICH WILL LIMIT
WARMING. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW SUNDAY MORNING AND
DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN IDAHO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WE FAVORED
THE ECMWF WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A MORE CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS
SYSTEM. THUS FOR SUNDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO DRIFT IN AHEAD OF
THIS...BUT WARMING LOOKS LIMITED AS MIXING IS WEAK AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE GETTING WIPED OUT. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS BY SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH BUT NO HEADLINES LOOK NEEDED FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. STRONG RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY A LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON NORTH BREEZE
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
THANKSGIVING DAY AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. ECMWF THE STRONGEST
BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SRN NV FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE GFS
IT BRUSHES THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO DIFFERENCE HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ALL WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. BEST ESTIMATE PLACES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
MCCARRAN BETWEEN 8 AM - 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A ROTOR CIRCULATION PRODUCING
MODERATE TO SEVERE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A
THICKER VEIL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS UP THE OWENS VALLEY AND ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE
COUNTIES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
NVZ019 WEST OF BUFFALO DRIVE-020.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ014-017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ519.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ520-521.
&&
$$
STACHELSKI/PIERCE
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 202303
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
303 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL BRUSH EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NOCAL/NW NV.
THIS SYSTEM IS CAUSING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE
BEEN OVER CENTRAL NV WHERE PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 50-55 MPH HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCED. THESE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN STIRRING UP A LOT OF DUST
AROUND THE AREA. KWMC HAS HAD THE LOWEST VISIBILITY IN BLOWING
DUST TODAY...DOWN TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES. WITH THE STORM SYSTEM
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS OUR CWA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH WIND ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL NV UNTIL 8PM. SO FAR
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A NEED FOR A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY OVER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS VSBYS BELOW 1 MILE ARE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
AND SHOULD ACTUALLY BE IMPROVING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
CLOUDS/PRECIP MOVE INTO THE AREA. STILL APPEARS AS IF REV`S AREA
WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN NV TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...AND ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NV OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD END UP WITH
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW...BUT THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NV WILL BE
LUCKY TO SEE A DUSTING OVERNIGHT.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF NE NV BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER FAR NE NV.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CLIP EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA AS
WELL. TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE BIT AND GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE
BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH MAINLY
THANKSGIVING. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AND
WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BLOWING
DUST WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...WITH AREAS
OF MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF A KU31-KP68-KELY LINE. WINDS
WILL EASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 5500
TO 6000 FEET ACROSS ELKO COUNTY AND 4500 FEET OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND ANY
RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW. LOOK FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR
-SHRA/-SHSN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 21/07Z.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ013-035-037.
&&
$$
99/86/86
000
FXUS65 KREV 202248
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
248 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY MOVE THROUGH AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG
A DENIO TO MARKLEEVILLE LINE. NEAR AND BEHIND FRONT IS WHERE
PRECIP BAND IS WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW IN SIERRA WITH IT A
LITTLE LIGHTER IN LEE SIDE DESERTS. WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DUST STORM OVER BASIN AND RANGE. BLOWING DUST PLUMES
SHOW UP WELL ON RADAR IMAGERY.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT...WARNINGS
LOOK GOOD. WIND STATEMENTS ALSO LOOK GOOD TO EXPIRE FOR RENO/TAHOE
AREA AT 4 PM...WITH WARNINGS CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST THRU 10 PM.
EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 60-70 MPH AT TIMES AHEAD
OF FRONT.
AS FRONT CLEARS AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT RAPID DECREASE IN PRECIP
AND WIND WITH FLAT RIDGE FOR SAT. WEAK SYSTEM TO BRUSH BY THE AREA
SUN MORNING WITH RAIN/SNOW NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH ROUGHLY. DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION HOWEVER...AND WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT...BUT NOTHING LIKE TODAY.
AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SUN...RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH N-NW FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPS WILL WARM IN MTNS BETTER THAN VALLEYS WHICH WILL SEE SOME
MODERATE INVERSIONS. WALLMANN
.LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION BEING DEEPER AND FASTER. LEANING
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH
OF THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS...THE TAIL END OF THE RIDGE KEEPS MOST
MOISTURE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP NORTH OF THE GREAT BASIN.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO KEEP PREVIOUS TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCES MENTIONED
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO OVERALL MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
LABELLE
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG AND FAST MOVING STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION. VERY
STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS CREATING WIDESPREAD
TURBULENCE AND BLOWING DUST...BUT THE EMPHASIS IS QUICKLY SHIFTING
TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WRN NEVADA LOCATIONS...THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG
INTERSTATE 80 FROM KWMC TO KRNO THEN EXTENDING SOUTH TO KMMH. AREAS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INCLUDING KLOL AND KNFL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
GUSTS 40-50 KTS AND BLOWING DUST THROUGH 02Z. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT
INCLUDING KRNO AND THE REST OF THE SIERRA FRONT WILL SEE QUICKLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS SNOW MOVES IN...HOWEVER WINDS WILL
DECREASE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVY
SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST 1-2 HOURS AND BEST GUESS ON TIMING IS TO OCCUR
FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z.
FOR SIERRA LOCATIONS INCLUDING KTRK AND KTVL...SNOW QUICKLY BROUGHT
CONDITIONS DOWN TO VLIFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER 06Z HOWEVER SHSN AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. IF KTRK CLEARS
UP FAST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 15Z. JORDAN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 202128 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
128 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
DUST CONTINUES TO BE PICKED UP OFF SINKS NEAR I-80/HWY 50 IN WRN
NV. VIS SAT SHOWS NEXT IMPRESSIVE PLUME COMING OFF CARSON SINK
CURRENTLY. ISSUING DUST STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 4 THROUGH 10 PM
TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR TAHOE AND LASSEN AS
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT. ALL OTHER STATEMENTS ON
TRACK AS WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45 TO 70 MPH...LOCALLY
STRONGER...EFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
BLOWING DUST...ROOFS LOOSING SHINGLES...POWER OUTAGES AND ISOLATED
TREES BEING BLOWN OVER. PRECIP IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPILL OVER INTO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS PRECIP AND FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP BAND IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS
WIDTH BUT HAS BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN
LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES. MILNE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND TO REMAIN
THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER PARTS OF ERN CA
AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 70-90 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN
TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN
REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. THE
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY BUSY
TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE PASSES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE RENO-CARSON
AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000 FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED
SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD MAY BE ICY PATCHES
LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY
OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AFTER
SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN
NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD TO A RAPID DROP IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS...ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 202054 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1250 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR TAHOE AND LASSEN AS
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT. ALL OTHER STATEMENTS ON
TRACK AS WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 45 TO 70 MPH...LOCALLY
STRONGER...EFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
BLOWING DUST...ROOFS LOOSING SHINGLES...POWER OUTAGES AND ISOLATED
TREES BEING BLOWN OVER. PRECIP IS NOW PUSHING INTO THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WILL GRADUALLY SPILL OVER INTO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE AS PRECIP AND FRONT PUSHES IN
FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP BAND IS NOT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE AS FAR AS
WIDTH BUT HAS BEEN PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN
LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES. MILNE
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND TO REMAIN
THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER PARTS OF ERN CA
AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 70-90 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN
TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN
REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. THE
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY BUSY
TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE PASSES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE RENO-CARSON
AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000 FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED
SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD MAY BE ICY PATCHES
LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY
OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AFTER
SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN
NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD TO A RAPID DROP IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS...ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 201835
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1035 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO UTAH BY SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE WINDS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN MAINLY OVER
THE SIERRA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...THEN
DROP TO AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC STORM
EXITS THE AREA.
&&
.UPDATE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
WINDS JUST AS OF THE LATEST REPORTS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AND BEGAN
TO GUST AT KTPH AND KBJN IN NYE COUNTY...SIGNS THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM IS EDGING CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME ELONGATED AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE STAYING WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A FEW
INTERESTING THINGS THAT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN
AHEAD OF AND WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. FIRST THERE WAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND BASED ON
THIS AND MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS POPS WERE FURTHER TRIMMED
BACK UP NORTH FOR TONIGHT WITH ONLY THE SIERRA AND MAYBE A FEW
PEAKS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ESMERALDA COUNTY SEEING ANY
SHOWERS. NEXT WAS THE LACK OF ANY INVERSION ABOVE RIDGETOP NOTED.
AN INVERSION ABOVE RIDGETOP IS USUALLY KEY IN HELPING WINDS TO BE
FORCED DOWN THE MOUNTAIN SLOPE. THE CURRENT WIND PRODUCTS ISSUED
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW...BUT THE THOUGHT
AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL...WAS THAT
STRONG WINDS OVER 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND
TO AT LEAST MID-SLOPE AND MAY POTENTIALLY SNEAK INTO THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OWENS VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE OF ADVISORY LEVEL.
ALSO GIVEN THE WIND PRODUCTS IN PLACE AND WEBCAM VIEWS OUT OF MONO
LAKE SHOWING BLOWING DUST WHERE WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING...AREAS
OF BLOWING SAND AND DUST WERE ADDED TO THE GRIDS AND ZONES WERE
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE VALLEYS.
THERE WAS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WARMING AT 700 MB NOTED IN THE
12Z DRA SOUNDING...UP TO +6C AND THE EDWARDS SOUNDING SHOWED
WARMING ALL THE WAY UP. GIVEN THIS AND CURRENT 24 HOUR TEMP
TRENDS...HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES IN
ALL AREAS.
THE LAST CONCERN IS FOR A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND IN THE LEE OF
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS FOR TONIGHT. THE LATEST RUN OF OUR LOCAL HIGH
RESOLUTION ARW MODEL JUST CAME IN AND SHOWS NEARLY 50 KTS NEAR RED
ROCK CANYON AROUND 12Z TONIGHT. WHILE A WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LOOKS
VERY LIKELY TO BE REACHED...THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT A
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. GIVEN THIS...WILL WAIT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MAKING A FINAL CALL WHEN THE RUN OF OUR OTHER HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SHOULD BE IN BY. LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY FOR
TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON TODAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 20 KTS LIKELY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY WILL SEE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE REST OF THE MORNING AND REACH SPEEDS OF
AROUND 20-30 KTS IN THE VALLEY AND 40-50 KTS ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS BY MID DAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25 KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A THICKER VEIL OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT
TO REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR IN THE OWENS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z...ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ROTOR CIRCULATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY CLOUD FREE SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE THE
INITIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO BE SEEN.
THIS TROUGH PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA BORDER BY 06Z SATURDAY AND GENERALLY
EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES OVER THE AREA WILL BE WINDS. MODERATE JET...80KTS OR SO TO
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA/NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY/
TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS DO NOT
INDICATE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INTO THE OWENS VALLEY WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT
ONLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WILL ALSO KEEP CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS SURFACE GRADIENTS/FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED WINDS
HERE TOO. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BE LIMITED OVER THE CWA...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AS RAPID DRYING
EXPECTED FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWA WITH THE RAINSHADOW PLAYING A
MAJOR RULE. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT/SATURDAY...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BE OVER THE CWA AND ALTHOUGH A WEAK RIPPLE
IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY...LITTLE IMPACT
FOR THE CWA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE DIRTY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
TO BE SIMILAR IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY...THEN COOLING
INTO SATURDAY TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND THEN
REMAIN THERE ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA/UTAH. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MY BE NEEDED. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. WILL MONITOR FOR NOW AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED IN FUTURE PACKAGES.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ014-017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ519.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ520-521.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STACHELSKI
AVIATION...CZYZYK
PREVIOUS...JENSEN/GORELOW
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 201707 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
907 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
STRONG COLD FRONT ON COAST WITH WELL DEFINED NCFR. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS EXPECTED WITH MANY AREAS
ALREADY GUSTING 40-60 MPH NEAR AND IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF SIERRA.
FALLON/LOVELOCK AREAS SLOWER TO SEE WINDS DUE TO STRONGER LLVL
INVERSION AS EXPECTED. SOME REPORTED PEAK GUSTS ACROSS AREA
ALREADY 70-80 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SIERRA FRONT. EXPECT
WINDS TO PEAK THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18 AND 22Z NORTH TO 00-04Z
SOUTH AND WILL UPDATE WIND STATEMENTS TO MENTION WORST WINDS AND
TO CLEAN UP WORDING AS WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.
OTHER CONCERN IS PRECIP ALONG FRONT...AND THIS STILL LOOKS ON
TRACK FOR SIERRA. HOWEVER...FOR WRN NV...WILL NEED TO INCREASE
POPS ALONG SIERRA FRONT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO OF
PRECIP ALONG FRONT OCCURRING NEAR OR JUST BEFORE EVENING RUSH SO
WANT TO EXPRESS HIGHER THAN JUST CHC WORDING ACROSS THE AREA. NAM
HAS BEEN DRY BUT NOW 12Z RUN DOES SHOW SPILLOVER OF RAIN/SNOW INTO
SIERRA FRONT WITH FRONT. STILL...IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH
PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 5000 FEET. ROADS
THERE COULD BECOME SLUSHY TOO DUE TO INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL IN THE
BAND DESPITE WARM GROUND TEMPS. ALL UPDATES OUT BY 930 AM.
WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND TO REMAIN
THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER PARTS OF ERN CA
AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 70-90 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN
TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN
REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. THE
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY BUSY
TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE PASSES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE RENO-CARSON
AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000 FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED
SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD MAY BE ICY PATCHES
LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY
OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AFTER
SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN
NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD TO A RAPID DROP IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS...ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 201331 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND TO REMAIN
THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER PARTS OF ERN CA
AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 70-90 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN
TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS
WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN
REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. THE
PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY BUSY
TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OVER THE PASSES FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOR THE RENO-CARSON
AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT LITTLE
ACCUMULATION...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000 FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED
SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD MAY BE ICY PATCHES
LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY
OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION AFTER
SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN
NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY KEEP SNOW
AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD TO A RAPID DROP IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE INVERSION.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS...ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 201244
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
444 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ALL WARNINGS ISSUED REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...WITH WIND LIKELY
TO REMAIN THE MAIN IMPACT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PICK UP OVER
PARTS OF ERN CA AND FAR WRN NV WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. RIDGE LEVEL
GUSTS HAVE REACHED 70-80 MPH AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. RIDGE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEYS BY MID OR LATE MORNING. PEAK
GUSTS OVER MOST AREAS WILL OCCUR IN A 2-4 HOUR TIME FRAME AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THRU NERN CA-NWRN
NV BTWN 18-21Z...THEN REACH THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS BTWN 21-00Z. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SRN MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES
BY 06Z THIS EVENING.
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM WIND TO PRECIPITATION AND POOR VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SIERRA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS SNOW INCREASES...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HARD TO MEASURE WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE WIND AND MAY FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA...BUT
THE PERIOD OF POTENTIAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DURING A TYPICALLY
BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON TRAVEL OVER
THE PASSES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
FOR THE RENO-CARSON AREAS...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND DUSK BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...MAYBE UP TO AN INCH ABOVE 5000
FT MAINLY ON UNPAVED SURFACES SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THE MAIN TRAVEL HAZARD
MAY BE ICY PATCHES LATER TONIGHT ON UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES THAT
ARE NOT ABLE TO DRY OUT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PRODUCE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT OVER NRN LASSEN COUNTY...SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NWRN NV LATER
THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL IN
THESE AREAS AFTER SNOW HAS LARGELY TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF ERN CA AND WRN NV. THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND ALSO LEAD
TO A RAPID DROP IN WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE CHILLY WITH MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH
DAY FOR MOST VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE
NWRN US BY LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND BRING SOME INCREASED
WINDS MAINLY TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT PRECIP PROSPECTS ARE
LOOKING LESS PROMISING AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. AS A RESULT...PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO SLGT CHC OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND
MOST OF NERN CA-NWRN NV. MJD
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST
MONDAY...AND THE AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MINIMAL WARMING TREND TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHT
FLOW. SIERRA WILL WARM FASTER DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERING
BELOW 6000 FEET.
WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST/GREAT BASIN...ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC
SHOULD BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE NEVADA
VALLEYS SHOULD WARM BY LATE IN THE WEEK...IF THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO INCREASE AND MIX OUT
THE INVERSION. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS AT THE SIERRA
TERMINALS GUSTING 30-40 KTS...WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-70 KTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH 21Z WHEN THE FRONT REACHES
THE AREA. PEAK WINDS AT THE SIERRA TERMINALS SHOULD REACH 45-50 KTS
WITH SIERRA RIDGE WINDS 70-80 KTS GUSTING TO 100-110 KTS. WIND OF
THIS MAGNITUDE WILL GENERATE MOUNTAIN WAVES AND MODERATE TO STRONG
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY DURING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT
HITS THE AREA AS THE FLOW TURNS PERPENDICULAR TO THE SIERRA.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SIERRA IS DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW SHOULD REACH THE SIERRA BY
21Z...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THRU 06Z THIS EVE. LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AS CONDITIONS
SLOWLY IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
FOR RENO...MAIN CONCERN IS THE WINDS. INITIALLY THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF MOUNTAIN WAVE AND ANY ROTORS NEAR
THE TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY BETWEEN 14-18Z...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 KTS) BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. FRONT SHOULD HIT
THE TERMINAL NEAR 21Z (GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR)...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
PERIOD FOR LLWS AND MORE ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AND ROTORS NEAR THE
TERMINAL. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL BEHIND THE FRONT 23Z-03Z...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ071-072.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 201031
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO UTAH BY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...THEN DROP TO
AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE PACIFIC STORM EXITS THE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...GENERALLY CLOUD FREE SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE THE
INITIAL CLOUDINESS FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO BE SEEN.
THIS TROUGH PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA BORDER BY 06Z SATURDAY AND GENERALLY
EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES OVER THE AREA WILL BE WINDS. MODERATE JET...80KTS OR SO TO
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA/NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY/
TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST
THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS DO NOT
INDICATE DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INTO THE OWENS VALLEY WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT
ONLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER ALONG WITH THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WILL ALSO KEEP CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES OUT FOR THE NORTHERN
ZONES AS SURFACE GRADIENTS/FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED WINDS
HERE TOO. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TO BE LIMITED OVER THE CWA...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AS RAPID DRYING
EXPECTED FURTHER EAST INTO THE CWA WITH THE RAINSHADOW PLAYING A
MAJOR RULE. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT/SATURDAY...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BE OVER THE CWA AND ALTHOUGH A WEAK RIPPLE
IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY...LITTLE IMPACT
FOR THE CWA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE DIRTY SKY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
TO BE SIMILAR IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY...THEN COOLING
INTO SATURDAY TO NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND THEN
REMAIN THERE ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
REALLY THE ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA/UTAH. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO
CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...HOWEVER LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES MY BE NEEDED. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. WILL MONITOR FOR NOW AND ADJUST
AS NEEDED IN FUTURE PACKAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON TODAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KNOTS AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AND OTHER
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20-30 KTS IN THE VALLEY AND 40-50
KTS ABOVE 7000 FEET BY LATE MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MID DAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-25
KTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ014-017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ519.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ520-521.
&&
$$
JENSEN/GORELOW
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 201031
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
231 AM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. A
WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. &&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. AS THE
TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PUSH ONSHORE THIS MORNING...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR SOUTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES AS WELL AS
WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...WITH BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES...EXTENDING EAST INTO
WESTERN ELKO COUNTY.
BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD
EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO VALLEY RAINS WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW FAIRLY
QUICKLY. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER. VALLEY
AREAS OF NORTHERN NEVADA WILL LIKELY ONLY RECEIVE BETWEEN A
DUSTING AND A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW...WITH MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
FACING SLOPES OF NORTHERN NEVADA RECEIVING BETWEEN A HALF AND
THREE INCHES OF SNOW.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...WITH VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CLIP EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. ROOD
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN EXTENDED FORECAST FROM 12Z GUIDANCE TO 00Z
GUIDANCE...WITH ECMWF CONSISTENTLY STRONGER THEN THE GFS WITH THE
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED. THE ELKO COUNTY CLIPPER ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WINDING DOWN BY DAYBREAK. CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
DEEPER AND WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION...DUE TO MODEL RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THIS FEATURE. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLD
AIR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE LOWER 40S ON MONDAY.
SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR BY MONDAY EVENING...AS STRONG SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. THE 500MB RIDGE
WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL NORMS
DURING THE WORKWEEK...WITH ABOVE AVG READINGS EXPECTED BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. CURRENTLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GOOD TRAVEL WEATHER
LEADING UP TO AND DURING THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS HINTING AT A
TROUGH AND UNSETTLED WEATHER BY FRIDAY...MEAN SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. &&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFT 20Z AT KWMC/KEKO WITH BLOWING DUST
REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL INCREASE AFT 18Z AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS WITH MAX GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS...ESPECIALLY AT KELY. AFT
03Z MVFR CIGS COULD IMPACT KWMC UNTIL 08Z AS CEILINGS DROP WITH
TEMPO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. &&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR NVZ013-035-037.
&&
$$
96/95/95
000
FXUS65 KREV 200551 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
951 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...
RDG LVL WINDS BEGINNING TO INCRS THIS EVE AS PAC TROF AND ASSOCD
INCRG WINDS ALF RAPIDLY APPROACHED THE WEST COAST. WINDS HAVE NOT
RESPONDED YET AT MOST VLY LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO SO
OVRNGT AS SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LLWS FOR SIERRA
TAF SITES OVRNGT UNTIL SFC WINDS RESPOND. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z MODEL
DATA SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE WITH PD OF STRONG WINDS AHD OF FRONT FRI
AND NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE/VERTICAL LIFT ALNG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAINLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NWD. 500MB RH FIELDS DRY OUT
QUICKLY WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH FRONT BECOMING
SHALLOW ONCE PASSAGE OCCURS 20Z FRI-00Z SAT. THUS HEAVY PCPN EAST
OF CREST IS GOING TO BE SHORTLIVED WITH ONLY BRIEF SPILLOVER INTO
WRN NV. LATEST MODEL QPF SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY MORE THAN A FOOT WL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE SIERRA
CREST ARND TAHOE AND NWD INTO WRN LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES WHILE AMTS
TAPER QUICKLY SWD/EWD AND DOWNWARD IN ELEVATION. WHILE LIKELY
POPS ARE BEING FCST FOR THE RENO/CARSON CITY AREA...QPF WL BE LGT
AND LIMITED TO A FEW HRS ARND SUNSET FRI. AREAS NORTH OF GERLACH
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING MEASUREABLE AMTS OF QPF AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LONGER PD OF DEEP MOIST ASCENT AHD OF PV LOBE
SWINGING THRU NRN CA ACRS NWRN NV.
THE PRIMARY THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE A NARROW WINDOW (2-4 HOURS)
WHERE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WL COMBINE TO PRODUCE NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDS FM WRN LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES SWD INTO THE TAHOE
BASIN. WINDS DROP OFF WITHIN A COUPLE OF HRS OF FROPA ALTHOUGH
BRISK CONDS WL LIKELY LINGER THRU THE EVENING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO WINDS FRI NGT TO REDUCE SPEEDS AND GUSTS BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA. THE EXCEPTION WAS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE
WINDS WL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF WIND AND
BLOWING DUST PRODUCTS LOOK REASONABLE WHILE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING MAY GO A BIT TOO LONG BASED ON SPEED OF SYSTEM. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM SOLN
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE FASTER GFS SOLN WL VERIFY
BASED ON EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND 21Z SREF ENSEMBLES.
HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. RIDGE TOP WINDS ALONG
THE SIERRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SPURRING THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS...REMAINING AT HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA...WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY
SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE FRONT. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SNOWY CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED STILL WARRANTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
CALIFORNIA...IN THE NORTHEASTERN SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP
TO MOST VALLEY SURFACES IN NEVADA BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION SEEN WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS IT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS AND A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. -LABELLE-
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE WEAKENING
TREND OF SHORT WAVE PUSHING OUT OF SRN OREGON AND THROUGH THE CWA
EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL HOLD ON TO SOME QPF ACROSS NRN CWA...BUT
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED. AND MOST MODELS DO NOT BRING QPF AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE TAHOE BASIN NOW. THUS WILL TRIM POPS BACK A BIT MORE IN
THE TAHOE AREA BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY AND RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE RGN
MONDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL TRYING TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT IT DOES NOT
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THUS WILL DISREGARD THIS
FOR NOW AND KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WILL SHOW SOME WARMING BY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SFC WINDS BECOME A BIT
MORE SE AS OPPOSED TO EASTERLY ALLOWING BETTER MIXING.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH
OPERATIONAL ECMWF NOW FASTER THAN GFS IN PUSHING NEXT TROF ON SHORE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO
TIMING. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE FAR NW CWA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTN AND INCREASE THIS A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO AS
HIGH AS ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT. GIVEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED
PREVIOUS LONG WAVE TROFS...HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING
SEVEN DAYS OUT. MLF
AVIATION...
APPROACH OF STRONG FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASCD
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID/UPPER WINDS TONIGHT AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY FRIDAY MRNG. SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY FRIDAY MRNG WITH AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA PICKING UP THE
STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. SFC WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 20/18 UTC WITH
KRNO POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 65 KTS AFTER 20/22 UTC. THESE
GUSTS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VSBYS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA IN
BLOWING DUST WITH KLOL POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AFTER 20/21 UTC.
RIDGE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA WILL BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AND REACH
AS HIGH AS 110 KTS AFTER 20/15 UTC. WIND DIRECTION CHANGE FROM SFC
TO MID LVLS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 30 TO 45 DEGREES SO DO NOT FORESEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL LLWS. SPEED SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE 20/14 UTC...BUT AFTER THAT SPEED SHEAR
WILL DECREASE AS SFC WINDS INCREASE.
SNOW/RAIN MIX SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AFTER 20/17 UTC WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING QUICKLY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT
KTVL/KTRK TO IFR AFTER 20/18 UTC. EAST OF THE SIERRA CIGS/VSBYS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE SIERRA AFTER 20/22 UTC WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS. MLF
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ071-
072.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 200420
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
820 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND TO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXIST MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE CROSSED THE AREA LEAVING DRY WEATHER IN ITS
WAKE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...THE INCOMING STORM IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT FAR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA...BUT EFFECTS IN OUR CWFA TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED TO
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
352 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...A MILD AND SUNNY AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
AREA COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.. THE
ONLY ISSUE OF REAL NOTE HAS BEEN SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
COURTESY OF A TIGHT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO THIS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT THESE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. TONIGHT EXPECT A CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO RIGHT
AROUND WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS MORNING.
OUR FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM PRESENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE
PAC NW COAST. OVERALL THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THAT IS
ABOUT IT. THE NORTHERN CWFA HOWEVER WILL BE WHERE THE BULK OF ANY
IMPACT IS FELT. PRECIPITATION-WISE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. A VERY SKIMPY AMOUNT LOOKS
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND THIS MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER EXPECT RAIN SHADOWING WILL
KICK IN BIG TIME...AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ALMOST NO
SPILLOVER TAKING PLACE EVEN INTO THE OWENS VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.
AS FOR WINDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 KTS FROM AROUND 10000 FEET UPWARDS. THUS RIDGETOPS IN BOTH
THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE VERY STRONG WINDS STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...MAINLY THE ARW...SHOW A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT
DEVELOPING DOWN TO AT LEAST MID-SLOPE IN THE SIERRA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. AS A
RESULT A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA...AND A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE OWENS VALLEY WAS ALSO ISSUED...THOUGH WINDS HERE
MAY JUST AS EASILY HIT LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS. EITHER WAY...ANY DOWNSLOPE WILL BE IN A VERY SMALL
WINDOW. OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER ESMERALDA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES AND A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
MAINLY FOR THE NEVADA TEST SITE WHICH LIKES TO BLOW IN SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT EVENTS. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS SHOULD WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPE OR AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS IN
THE LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THAT MAY FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL WIND DOWN ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. TEMPS WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO AT BEST HIGHS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND.
.LONG TERM...ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SYSTEM JUST
BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA
WEATHER OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
MORNING MOS GUIDANCE IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST EVENINGS
BUT DECIDED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR THOSE FORECAST BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT FORECASTER WHICH CALLED FOR ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT LATER IN THE WEEK BUT THERE IS
A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND THERE IS PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH AS MODELS ADJUST.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AREA WIDE BUT BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY...SPREADING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ014-017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ519.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ520-521.
&&
$$
MORGAN/STACHELSKI/SALMEN
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 192352
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
352 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WIND TO THE AREA FRIDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO EXIST MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE CROSSED THE AREA LEAVING DRY WEATHER IN ITS
WAKE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A MILD AND SUNNY AFTERNOON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
AREA COURTESY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.. THE
ONLY ISSUE OF REAL NOTE HAS BEEN SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
COURTESY OF A TIGHT NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS OVER 25 MPH OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO THIS
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT THESE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. TONIGHT EXPECT A CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO RIGHT
AROUND WHERE THEY WERE AT THIS MORNING.
OUR FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM PRESENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE
PAC NW COAST. OVERALL THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARKED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THAT IS
ABOUT IT. THE NORTHERN CWFA HOWEVER WILL BE WHERE THE BULK OF ANY
IMPACT IS FELT. PRECIPITATION-WISE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. A VERY SKIMPY AMOUNT LOOKS
TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND THIS MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER EXPECT RAIN SHADOWING WILL
KICK IN BIG TIME...AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ALMOST NO
SPILLOVER TAKING PLACE EVEN INTO THE OWENS VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.
AS FOR WINDS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 50 KTS FROM AROUND 10000 FEET UPWARDS. THUS RIDGETOPS IN BOTH
THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE VERY STRONG WINDS STARTING
FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...MAINLY THE ARW...SHOW A POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT
DEVELOPING DOWN TO AT LEAST MID-SLOPE IN THE SIERRA BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY. AS A
RESULT A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE SIERRA...AND A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE OWENS VALLEY WAS ALSO ISSUED...THOUGH WINDS HERE
MAY JUST AS EASILY HIT LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT WINDS. EITHER WAY...ANY DOWNSLOPE WILL BE IN A VERY SMALL
WINDOW. OTHERWISE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER ESMERALDA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES AND A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
MAINLY FOR THE NEVADA TEST SITE WHICH LIKES TO BLOW IN SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT EVENTS. EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS SHOULD WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A DOWNSLOPE OR AT LEAST SOME LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS IN
THE LEE OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THAT MAY FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL WIND DOWN ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. TEMPS WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT...SO AT BEST HIGHS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS JUST
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND.
.LONG TERM...ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SYSTEM JUST
BRUSHES BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA
WEATHER OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
MORNING MOS GUIDANCE IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST EVENINGS
BUT DECIDED TO HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR THOSE FORECAST BY THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT FORECASTER WHICH CALLED FOR ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A HIGHER IMPACT EVENT LATER IN THE WEEK BUT THERE IS
A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AND THERE IS PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH AS MODELS ADJUST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 6 KTS
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AREA WIDE BUT BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY...SPREADING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ014-017.
AZ...NONE.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ519.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ520-521.
&&
$$
STACHELSKI/SALMEN
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 192326
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
326 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGING OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A STRONG
PACIFIC CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS COMMENCING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATER FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY EXPECT MILD WEATHER...AS
A RESULT OF WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. ALL THE WHILE A MATURE SYSTEM
WILL DESCEND SOUTHEASTWARD...CLOSING IN ON THE SILVER STATE...AND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...THE ATTENDANT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE OVER NEVADA...AND STRONG GUSTS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL NEVADA UPLANDS WILL EXACERBATE
THE IMPACTS OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF WHITE
PINE...LANDER...EUREKA AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. FAVORABLE
DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH ENHANCED PWATS...SIGNAL THE LIKELY HOOD OF A
GOOD QPF EVENT. THIS EVENT WILL START OUT AS A VALLEY RAIN/ MT
SNOW EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN THE MODE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO PREDOMINATELY SNOW ON SATURDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE WILL PLUMMET MORE THAN 2000 FT OVER THE COURSE OF THIS EVENT.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. DIRTY RIDGE WILL KEEP
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS NORTHERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN NV. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...DRY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS WITH SURFACE INVERSIONS IN PLACE. EC AND GFS
FORECAST NEXT TROF TO MOVE INTO THE NEVADA NEXT FRIDAY. EC MUCH
STRONGER...DEEPER AND FASTER WITH TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...A RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY INTO NORTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ013-035-037.
&&
$$
97/87/87
000
FXUS65 KREV 192245
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PST THU NOV 19 2009
.SHORT TERM...A CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS. RIDGE TOP WINDS ALONG
THE SIERRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...SPURRING THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA.
THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS...REMAINING AT HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA...WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEVADA BY
SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE GUSTY WINDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE FRONT. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HOWEVER...SNOWY CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED STILL WARRANTED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
CALIFORNIA...IN THE NORTHEASTERN SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
CONSIDERABLY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP
TO MOST VALLEY SURFACES IN NEVADA BY FRIDAY EVENING...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION SEEN WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS IT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS AND A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. -LABELLE-
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE WEAKENING
TREND OF SHORT WAVE PUSHING OUT OF SRN OREGON AND THROUGH THE CWA
EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL HOLD ON TO SOME QPF ACROSS NRN CWA...BUT
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED. AND MOST MODELS DO NOT BRING QPF AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE TAHOE BASIN NOW. THUS WILL TRIM POPS BACK A BIT MORE IN
THE TAHOE AREA BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS LASSEN/PLUMAS COUNTIES AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY. THIS SHORT WAVE PROGRESSES EAST
RATHER QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY AND RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE RGN
MONDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL TRYING TO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROTATING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT. BUT IT DOES NOT
PRODUCE MUCH PCPN AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THUS WILL DISREGARD THIS
FOR NOW AND KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WILL SHOW SOME WARMING BY WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SFC WINDS BECOME A BIT
MORE SE AS OPPOSED TO EASTERLY ALLOWING BETTER MIXING.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH
OPERATIONAL ECMWF NOW FASTER THAN GFS IN PUSHING NEXT TROF ON SHORE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD WITH REGARD TO
TIMING. WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE FAR NW CWA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTN AND INCREASE THIS A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT GO AS
HIGH AS ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT. GIVEN HOW THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED
PREVIOUS LONG WAVE TROFS...HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING
SEVEN DAYS OUT. MLF
&&
.AVIATION...
APPROACH OF STRONG FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASCD
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID/UPPER WINDS TONIGHT AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY FRIDAY MRNG. SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY FRIDAY MRNG WITH AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA PICKING UP THE
STRONGEST WINDS BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTN. SFC WINDS GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 20/18 UTC WITH
KRNO POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 65 KTS AFTER 20/22 UTC. THESE
GUSTS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VSBYS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE SIERRA IN
BLOWING DUST WITH KLOL POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AFTER 20/21 UTC.
RIDGE WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA WILL BEGIN INCREASING TONIGHT AND REACH
AS HIGH AS 110 KTS AFTER 20/15 UTC. WIND DIRECTION CHANGE FROM SFC
TO MID LVLS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 30 TO 45 DEGREES SO DO NOT FORESEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL LLWS. SPEED SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE 20/14 UTC...BUT AFTER THAT SPEED SHEAR
WILL DECREASE AS SFC WINDS INCREASE.
SNOW/RAIN MIX SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AFTER 20/17 UTC WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING QUICKLY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT
KTVL/KTRK TO IFR AFTER 20/18 UTC. EAST OF THE SIERRA CIGS/VSBYS WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH
EAST OF THE SIERRA AFTER 20/22 UTC WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS. MLF
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ002.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ003-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ001.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR NVZ004.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ071-072.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ071-
072.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ073.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
| 
