000
FXUS61 KBGM 220848
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
348 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE SKIES BRIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...THE FORECAST TODAY IS ALL ABOUT THE CLOUDS AND WHEN
TO MOVE THEM OUT. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR HAZLETON NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONTICELLO. THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN PLACE NOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH NO MECHANISM IN PLACE TO SCOUR
THEM OUT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED AT NORWICH AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH 14Z. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DENSE WITH THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY UP THROUGH EASTERN PIKE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING CLEAR SKIES.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE GEM REGIONAL SKY GRID IS DOING A GREAT JOB
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH NOON. AFTER THAT
TIME...ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE GET SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. THIS WILL BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS DUE TO THE LOW SUN
ANGLE AND VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. WILL WORD THE FORECAST CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AFTER THAT TIME. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR THE FASTEST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND SLOWEST IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. NAM 925 TEMPS YESTERDAY NAILED THE FORECAST
HIGH AND WILL USE THESE FOR HIGHS TODAY. 925S AROUND RANGE FROM 1C
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO 4C AT KAVP. THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WYOMING
VALLEY OF PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING VS. YESTERDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP AND OFF
THE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY ACROSS NEPA.
THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST SOLUTION BUT OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 0Z GEM/NAM/GFS. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT I
WENT WITH THE NAM DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST AND THE BOTH SHOW IT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WHAT IS IN STORE. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL SOMEWHAT. THEN
ON THURSDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE OVER THE
REGION. SINCE IT IS STILL FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT REMOVE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT MAY AMEND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS IF IT
IS PERSISTENT IN THE MODELS.

AFTER THANKSGIVING...IT BECOMES INTERESTING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON HOW FAR THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...WHICH IS NORMAL AND EXPECTED FROM THE MODEL...SO WILL
PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF SLOWING IT DOWN SOME. BOTH MODEL DO
SHOW THE LOW TO CONTAIN COLD AIR...COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO MIXED PRECIP...TO EVEN SOME SNOW. THE MAIN CHANGE OVER
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. THE 1000-500 THICKNESS DROPS BELOW
540 DM FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE ECMWF. AGAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THIS. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY. IT IS REALLY TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE AN ESTIMATE OF LIQUID
PRECIP ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO WAVER AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE CEILINGS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO
INTO IFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBGM...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A LOW
CLOUD DECK. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE MORNING PERHAPS EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME TAFS SITES MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AS SOME
LIGHT HAZE/MIST DEVELOPS AND HANGS AROUND THE AIRPORTS. NOT
EXPECTING AND SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VIS ATTM.

WIND ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EMH
NEAR TERM...EMH
SHORT TERM...EMH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KALY 220825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9
IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220821
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PERIOD
STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN FM
MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH DOMINATES
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. TRICKY
CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER STRATUS
DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9 IR
SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBUF 220818
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK
AS A STRONG LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS
BLANKETING THE REGION. 00Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWING PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 35
HUNDRED FEET. SOME LIMITED POCKETS OF CLEARING WHICH HAVE TRIED TO
DEVELOP HAVE QUICKLY FILLED IN. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
STRATUS DECK AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WE WOULD EXPECT THE
CURRENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EARLY THIS
MORNING AND LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MORNING...EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD GET A BIT WARMER IF MORE
SUNSHINE CAN BE REALIZED SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY MIX OUT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH MID 30S CLOSER TO THE
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OF RECENT DAYS IS FINALLY MIXED OUT AND DISSIPATED.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
BACK NORTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT
MUCH RETURN FLOW AND HOLD 925MB TEMPS AT AROUND +4C. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT.
LAST NIGHT...THE GFS WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL BRINGING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP UP WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. NOW IT APPEARS THE OUTLIER MODEL WAS
CORRECT...WITH THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST COAST AND SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT TO SEA. A SECOND WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE UP ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A SURGE OF
HIGHER THETA-E CONTENT AIR WITH IT.

WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH IMPLIED
LIFT FROM THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT QPF TO BE MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS. STILL...WILL NEED TO
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DO RISE SOME TO +6C ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL
BE OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND
GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD WITH 850MB TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO...DEPENDING ON WHICH PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION IS
CHOSEN. THIS SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIQUID WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING. BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF
SUGGEST THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE TROUGH
RE-LOADS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THANKSGIVING. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...THE HOLIDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT LOWER TO LOW CHANCE.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. IN A GENERAL
SENSE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS HOWEVER. THE LATEST 00Z/22 GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A
MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS FARTHER WEST AND INLAND. BOTH OF
THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL OR EASTERN NY WITH SOME LIMITED
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THIS COASTAL LOW ONLY RECENTLY
APPEARED ON THE SCENE OF POSSIBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND SHOULD BE
TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS LONG TIME RANGE. FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH LOTS OF
TIME TO INTRODUCE DETAILS LATER. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DENSE STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE SATURATED WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

DURING SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDINESS/FOG GRADUALLY MIXES OUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE. THAT SAID...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EASTERLIES
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE SOME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

000
FXUS61 KBGM 220738
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE SKIES BRIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...THE FORECAST TODAY IS ALL ABOUT THE CLOUDS AND WHEN
TO MOVE THEM OUT. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR HAZLETON NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONTICELLO. THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN PLACE NOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH NO MECHANISM IN PLACE TO SCOUR
THEM OUT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED AT NORWICH AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH 14Z. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DENSE WITH THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY UP THROUGH EASTERN PIKE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING CLEAR SKIES.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE GEM REGIONAL SKY GRID IS DOING A GREAT JOB
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH NOON. AFTER THAT
TIME...ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE GET SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. THIS WILL BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS DUE TO THE LOW SUN
ANGLE AND VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. WILL WORD THE FORECAST CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AFTER THAT TIME. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR THE FASTEST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND SLOWEST IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. NAM 925 TEMPS YESTERDAY NAILED THE FORECAST
HIGH AND WILL USE THESE FOR HIGHS TODAY. 925S AROUND RANGE FROM 1C
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO 4C AT KAVP. THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WYOMING
VALLEY OF PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING VS. YESTERDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP AND OFF
THE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY ACROSS NEPA.
THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST SOLUTION BUT OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 0Z GEM/NAM/GFS. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT I
WENT WITH THE NAM DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY/S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DURING THIS
PERIOD. HPC FAVORS A ECMWF/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND WILL THUS STRICTLY
FOLLOW THEIR GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION. THESE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT A DEEP TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
WEDS-THURS TIME FRAME AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE EAST FRI-SAT.
INITIALLY THE TRENDS LOOK A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODELS...AND
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR TUES NIGHT BEFORE ALLOWING CHANCE POPS TO
COVER THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.
CNY/NEPA REMAINS ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY RAIN AS
THE PTYPE. THEN THE AIR LOOKS TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH ON NWLY FLOW FRI
NITE AND SATURDAY FOR POTENTIAL LES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WE HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAKE PRONE
VECTORS FROM 270-300 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A A LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST MVFR...AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY AFTER 15Z. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT
KELM/KBGM WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR IFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS
KITH DUE TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF CAYUGA LAKE. FOR THE
TIME BEING...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DESPITE
HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN
PLACE SHOULD LIMIT TO A LARGE DEGREE THE AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE CONCLUSION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...CMG

000
FXUS61 KALY 220644
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN
FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH
DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER
THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220622
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM EST SATURDAY...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT LAYER OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT AGL. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND MUCH OF ERN/SERN VT...OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ELIMINATE EXISTING
CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HRS...WITH A SLOW
DECREASING TREND TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS NRN NY
OWING TO OVC SKIES...BUT ELSEWHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL
/WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S/ AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH LONG MID-NOVEMEBER NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD BY LATE NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 220532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KOKX 220527
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1227 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND INTO THE
MARITIMES THOROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE UP COAST
MONDAY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE TRI-STATE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AS WINDS DIMINISH. THIS COMBINATION
WILL RESULT IN DECENT IF NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS...AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH
THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...SO EARLY MORNING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. THIS
IS NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT DECOUPLING SHOULD
ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AS NE WINDS PICK UP A BIT.

UNDERCUT MOS IN GENERAL IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS
ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTY AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LI. PERSISTENCE AND
MOS VERY CLOSE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE PASSES NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE TO INCREASE. ALL IN ALL A DECENT
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH
EAST WINDS.

TRICKY TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AS COLD AIR DAMMING AND LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THERE
MAY AGAIN BE A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING...THUS FORECAST LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO END UP CLOSE TO TONIGHT`S. THIS PERIOD IS PERHAPS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST OF THE SHORT TERM. IF SURFACE
WINDS STAY UP...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW GET HERE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
FORECAST.

MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A
DIFFUSE COASTAL LOW...BUT THE WIND FIELDS ARE BIT MORE ALIGNED.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED POP TO LIKELY FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON IF THE LOW
CENTER PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUT THE AREA IN THE BEST LIFT. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST IN TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE 18Z
RUN HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS 1 TO 1.5 INCH FORECAST EARLIER TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY WRAP AROUND...POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TEMP VARIATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR -RA ENDING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW
DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT
FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A LULL SETTLES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TO LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT WILL VEER NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. TOWARD
SUNRISE...A FEW TERMINAL SITES COULD SEE SOME RADIATION FOG...MVFR
VISIBILITIES IF WINDS DECOUPLE (KSWF/KGON)...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
TO MODERATE IN THIS HAPPENING. NYC METRO WILL BE OK DUE TO AMPLE
MIXING/HEAT ISLAND.

OVERALL...VFR TODAY IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST FLOW.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THE THE WATERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL NOT SEE
25 KTS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING GALE FORCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE WATERS FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM...GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...PW/BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 220330
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 955 PM...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...OWING TO A LAYER OF PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. WHILE SOME LIMITED POCKETS
OF CLEARING ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF TORONTO AND
PETERBOROUGH ONTARIO...MORE STRATUS IS ALREADY REDEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH OF THIS AREA OF CLEARING...AND WILL LIKELY CLOSE THIS GAP
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THIS AREA SUFFERING A SIMILAR
FATE TO A SMALL PATCH OF CLEARING THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO EARLIER THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE CURRENT EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK AND THE ABOVE
SATELLITE TRENDS...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION OR
EROSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN
INTACT INTO AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPPED
SKY COVER TO THE CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BLENDING BACK TO EXISTING
CONTINUITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE GREATER AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...FOG SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT LESS OF
AN ISSUE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...THOUGH STILL QUITE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY NARROW T/TD SPREADS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR
TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.

300 PM UPDATE...REGION COVERED UNDER A LOW STRATUS DECK AT MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME EARLIER SUNNY BREAKS HAVING FILLED IN AS EXPECTED.
JUST TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. SATELLITE LOOP SHOW A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS SW NY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...AS EVIDENT BY
CLEARING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...TOO LATE TO ALLOW FOR ANY SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON HERE...BUT PERHAPS SOME LIMITED CLEARING LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A DIFFICULT CALL HOWEVER...AND EVEN IF WE DO
CLEAR...FOG IS AGAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATER TONIGHT AND TWD
DAYBREAK DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEW PTS AND EXPERIENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING. SO...WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE SKY GRIDS A BIT
THIS EVENING...THEN ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TO 8-9 AM SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...OF WHICH WE HAVE
HAD QUITE A FEW DURING THIS UNUSUALLY PLEASANT NOVEMBER. FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND WE
WILL HAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL...UNLIKE TODAY WHERE
TROF WAS PRESENT. 925 MB TEMP OF +6C WOULD SUPPORT L-M 50S WITH A
DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE...AND THAT IS THE QUESTION. WE WILL LIKELY
START OFF THE DAY WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG...AND WITH SUCH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LATE NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...WILL AGAIN HAVE
DIFFICULTY BURNING IT OFF...BUT EXPECT THE MOIST LAYER TO BE MUCH
SHALLOWER THAN TODAY`S...SO WILL THEREFORE ERODE CLOUD QUICKLY IN
THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME..LEADING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSER
TO MAV MAXES...MOSTLY L-M 50S...BUT AN EARLIER BREAKOUT TO SUNSHINE
WOULD RESULT IN EVEN MILDER TEMPS. NORMAL FOR NOV 22 IS 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM NEW BRUNSWICK
SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SUNDAY
NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. EXPECT LOWS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S NORTH COUNTRY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER, TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.

THE HIGH WILL BRING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
850 TEMPS OF +2 TO +4C SHLD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS FROM
THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FINGER
LKS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LK ONTARIO COUNTIES AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKS WEST ARND THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE HAM KEEPS FAR WESTERN AREAS DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK WEST TO
THE CENTRAL LKS WHILE THE GFS TRIES SPREADING SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORT WAVE INTO THE FAR WEST
PTNS OF OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS IN
THE FAR WEST.

ON TUESDAY, WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA AS
MUCH OF OUR REGION IS BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE MORNING FROM THE COASTAL SYS MNLY JUST OVER ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND SE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL LKS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
SPREADING INTO AREAS FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST. RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ST LAW VALLEY SHLD KEEP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION DRY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHLD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
NOAM SECTOR IS MORE OR LESS ZONAL...WITH TRANSIENT RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO
FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE
MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS
SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A PATTERN. THE INDICIES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

CONTINUITY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LKS AND MOVING TO
WESTERN NY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

TEMPS SHLD STILL BE WARM ENOUGH THURSDAY FOR THE PRECIP TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT THEN IT WILL GET COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIP SHLD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT IT SHLD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE CHC OF
SNOW SHWRS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHWRS IN NW FLOW SE OF LK ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE
NW FLOW SHLD SHLD CONTINUE CHC MIXED PRECIP INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DENSE STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE SATURATED WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

DURING SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDINESS/FOG GRADUALLY MIXES OUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE. THAT SAID...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...JJP

000
FXUS61 KALY 220307
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBUF 220307
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1007 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 955 PM...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...OWING TO A LAYER OF PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3 KFT. WHILE SOME LIMITED POCKETS
OF CLEARING ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF TORONTO AND
PETERBOROUGH ONTARIO...MORE STRATUS IS ALREADY REDEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH OF THIS AREA OF CLEARING...AND WILL LIKELY CLOSE THIS GAP
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THIS AREA SUFFERING A SIMILAR
FATE TO A SMALL PATCH OF CLEARING THAT DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO EARLIER THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE CURRENT EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK AND THE ABOVE
SATELLITE TRENDS...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION OR
EROSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN
INTACT INTO AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING OUT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPPED
SKY COVER TO THE CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BLENDING BACK TO EXISTING
CONTINUITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH THE GREATER AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...HAVE ALSO ELECTED TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MINS A FEW
DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...FOG SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT LESS OF
AN ISSUE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...THOUGH STILL QUITE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY NARROW T/TD SPREADS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAVE A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR
TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.

300 PM UPDATE...REGION COVERED UNDER A LOW STRATUS DECK AT MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME EARLIER SUNNY BREAKS HAVING FILLED IN AS EXPECTED.
JUST TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. SATELLITE LOOP SHOW A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS SW NY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...AS EVIDENT BY
CLEARING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...TOO LATE TO ALLOW FOR ANY SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON HERE...BUT PERHAPS SOME LIMITED CLEARING LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A DIFFICULT CALL HOWEVER...AND EVEN IF WE DO
CLEAR...FOG IS AGAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATER TONIGHT AND TWD
DAYBREAK DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEW PTS AND EXPERIENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING. SO...WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE SKY GRIDS A BIT
THIS EVENING...THEN ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TO 8-9 AM SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...OF WHICH WE HAVE
HAD QUITE A FEW DURING THIS UNUSUALLY PLEASANT NOVEMBER. FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND WE
WILL HAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL...UNLIKE TODAY WHERE
TROF WAS PRESENT. 925 MB TEMP OF +6C WOULD SUPPORT L-M 50S WITH A
DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE...AND THAT IS THE QUESTION. WE WILL LIKELY
START OFF THE DAY WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG...AND WITH SUCH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LATE NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...WILL AGAIN HAVE
DIFFICULTY BURNING IT OFF...BUT EXPECT THE MOIST LAYER TO BE MUCH
SHALLOWER THAN TODAY`S...SO WILL THEREFORE ERODE CLOUD QUICKLY IN
THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME..LEADING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSER
TO MAV MAXES...MOSTLY L-M 50S...BUT AN EARLIER BREAKOUT TO SUNSHINE
WOULD RESULT IN EVEN MILDER TEMPS. NORMAL FOR NOV 22 IS 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM NEW BRUNSWICK
SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SUNDAY
NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. EXPECT LOWS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S NORTH COUNTRY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER, TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.

THE HIGH WILL BRING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
850 TEMPS OF +2 TO +4C SHLD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS FROM
THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FINGER
LKS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LK ONTARIO COUNTIES AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKS WEST ARND THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE HAM KEEPS FAR WESTERN AREAS DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK WEST TO
THE CENTRAL LKS WHILE THE GFS TRIES SPREADING SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORT WAVE INTO THE FAR WEST
PTNS OF OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS IN
THE FAR WEST.

ON TUESDAY, WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA AS
MUCH OF OUR REGION IS BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE MORNING FROM THE COASTAL SYS MNLY JUST OVER ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND SE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL LKS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
SPREADING INTO AREAS FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST. RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ST LAW VALLEY SHLD KEEP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION DRY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHLD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
NOAM SECTOR IS MORE OR LESS ZONAL...WITH TRANSIENT RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO
FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE
MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS
SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A PATTERN. THE INDICIES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

CONTINUITY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LKS AND MOVING TO
WESTERN NY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

TEMPS SHLD STILL BE WARM ENOUGH THURSDAY FOR THE PRECIP TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT THEN IT WILL GET COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIP SHLD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT IT SHLD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE CHC OF
SNOW SHWRS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHWRS IN NW FLOW SE OF LK ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE
NW FLOW SHLD SHLD CONTINUE CHC MIXED PRECIP INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DENSE STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE SATURATED
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

DURING SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDINESS/FOG GRADUALLY MIXES OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE. THAT SAID...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...JJP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 220306
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1006 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
MAKING FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT LOW LEVEL OVERCAST WILL
HOLD TOUGH UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS THERE IS NO
MIXING OR DRY ADVECTION IN EFFECT TO DISSIPATE. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HOLES
STARTING TO DEVELOP AND/OR CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST AS WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AFT 09Z...AND DOWNSLOPES OFF THE
ADIRONDACKS. THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE
CUTTING EDGE OF CLEAR VS CLOUDY. IN LIGHT OF EXTRA CLOUDINESS...
WILL CONTINUE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BRING DRYER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEFT OVER
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN. SOME
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS WILL AID THE
CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND
GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING`S
SREF`S INDICATE A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHC FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHEAST PA. BASED ON THIS HAVE EDGED POPS UP FROM LOW CHC
TO HIGH CHC DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY/S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DURING THIS
PERIOD. HPC FAVORS A ECMWF/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND WILL THUS STRICTLY
FOLLOW THEIR GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION. THESE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT A DEEP TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
WEDS-THURS TIME FRAME AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE EAST FRI-SAT.
INITIALLY THE TRENDS LOOK A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODELS...AND
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR TUES NIGHT BEFORE ALLOWING CHANCE POPS TO
COVER THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.
CNY/NEPA REMAINS ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY RAIN AS
THE PTYPE. THEN THE AIR LOOKS TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH ON NWLY FLOW FRI
NITE AND SATURDAY FOR POTENTIAL LES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WE HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAKE PRONE
VECTORS FROM 270-300 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A A LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST MVFR...AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY AFTER 15Z. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT
KELM/KBGM WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR IFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS
KITH DUE TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF CAYUGA LAKE. FOR THE
TIME BEING...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DESPITE
HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN
PLACE SHOULD LIMIT TO A LARGE DEGREE THE AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE CONCLUSION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...CMG

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
857 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM EST SATURDAY...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT LAYER OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT AGL. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND MUCH OF ERN/SERN VT...OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ELIMINATE EXISTING
CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HRS...WITH A SLOW
DECREASING TREND TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS NRN NY
OWING TO OVC SKIES...BUT ELSEWHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL
/WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S/ AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH LONG MID-NOVEMEBER NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD BY LATE NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WHICH HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AT MOST SITES ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1500-2500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH KSLK WILL DROP
BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 SM
WITH 2 SM AT KMPV. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 08Z-12Z.
THEREAFTER EXPECT FOG AND CEILINGS TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL
SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 220014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. WILL BE MAKING SOME
MINOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA
OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...LAKES ONTARIO AND
ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBGM 212346
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
MAKING FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS PRIMARILY THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION WITH THE LAKE
PLAIN AND NE PA SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

WITH OVERCAST SKIES WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE,
BASICALLY MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BRING DRYER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEFT OVER
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN. SOME
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS WILL AID THE
CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND
GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING`S
SREF`S INDICATE A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHC FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHEAST PA. BASED ON THIS HAVE EDGED POPS UP FROM LOW CHC
TO HIGH CHC DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY/S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DURING THIS
PERIOD. HPC FAVORS A ECMWF/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND WILL THUS STRICTLY
FOLLOW THEIR GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION. THESE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT A DEEP TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
WEDS-THURS TIME FRAME AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE EAST FRI-SAT.
INITIALLY THE TRENDS LOOK A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODELS...AND
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR TUES NIGHT BEFORE ALLOWING CHANCE POPS TO
COVER THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.
CNY/NEPA REMAINS ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY RAIN AS
THE PTYPE. THEN THE AIR LOOKS TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH ON NWLY FLOW FRI
NITE AND SATURDAY FOR POTENTIAL LES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WE HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAKE PRONE
VECTORS FROM 270-300 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A A LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST MVFR...AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY AFTER 15Z. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT
KELM/KBGM WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR IFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS
KITH DUE TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF CAYUGA LAKE. FOR THE
TIME BEING...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DESPITE
HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN
PLACE SHOULD LIMIT TO A LARGE DEGREE THE AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE CONCLUSION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...CMG

000
FXUS61 KOKX 212341
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
641 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND INTO THE
MARITIMES THOROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE UP COAST
MONDAY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE TRI- STATE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AS WINDS DIMINISH. THIS COMBINATION
WILL RESULT IN DECENT IF NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS...AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH
THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...SO EARLY MORNING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. THIS
IS NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT DECOUPLING SHOULD
ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AS NE WINDS PICK UP A BIT.

UNDERCUT MOS IN GENERAL IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS
ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTY AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LI. PERSISTENCE AND
MOS VERY CLOSE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE PASSES NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE TO INCREASE. ALL IN ALL A DECENT
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH
EAST WINDS.

TRICKY TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AS COLD AIR DAMMING AND LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THERE
MAY AGAIN BE A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING...THUS FORECAST LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO END UP CLOSE TO TONIGHT`S. THIS PERIOD IS PERHAPS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST OF THE SHORT TERM. IF SURFACE
WINDS STAY UP...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW GET HERE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
FORECAST.

MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A
DIFFUSE COASTAL LOW...BUT THE WIND FIELDS ARE BIT MORE ALIGNED.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED POP TO LIKELY FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON IF THE LOW
CENTER PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUT THE AREA IN THE BEST LIFT. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST IN TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE 18Z
RUN HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS 1 TO 1.5 INCH FORECAST EARLIER TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY WRAP AROUND...POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TEMP VARIATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES DEPARTS THE REGION TUE NGT WITH CHC POPS FOR -RA ENDING.
SW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY. H3
JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK AS
EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MRGNL MOISTURE...ONLY LGT PCPN
EXPECTED ATTM. A LULL SETTLES IN WED NGT INTO THU...THEN THE FOCUS
SHIFTS TO LATE THU AND FRI. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OH
VALLEY WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SFC. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST AND TRACKING NEWD OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN GREAT
LAKES. ALTHO THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLNS...IT APPEARS A
SHOT OF RA ON TRACK DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO
BE THE WIND IF THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ARE CLOSE AND A 980S LOW
OCCLUDES OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND SAT MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS INITIALLY AROUND 10 KTS AT A FEW LOCALES IN AND AROUND NYC
METRO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...NW FLOW UNDER 10 KT SHOULD VEER N
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN TURN NE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KT...HIGHER AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS...TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE THE OH VALLEY
BUILDS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND. RADIATION FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW...LATE
TONIGHT AT KSWF AND KGON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OTHER TERMINALS
OUTSIDE THE NYC URBAN HEAT ISLAND FOR THIS POSSIBILITY CLOSE
TO/JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

VFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS 9 TO 12 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
TUE NIGHT-WED...BECOMING VFR.
THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THE THE WATERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL NOT SEE
25 KTS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING GALE FORCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LINGER TUE NGT INTO WED...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AS LOW PRES WEAKENS N OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI. DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS/PW
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY
WX. ONLY PROBLEMATICAL QUESTION IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
LONG PESKY LL STRATOCUMULUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT ACARS DATA OUT OF MONTREAL (CYUL) CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE THOUGH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MANY AREAS TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
BR/FG. WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT BY LATE
NOVEMBER STANDARDS ...BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WHICH HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AT MOST SITES ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1500-2500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH KSLK WILL DROP
BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 SM
WITH 2 SM AT KMPV. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 08Z-12Z.
THEREAFTER EXPECT FOG AND CEILINGS TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL
SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB

000
FXUS61 KBUF 212325
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
625 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...REGION COVERED UNDER A LOW STRATUS DECK AT MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME EARLIER SUNNY BREAKS HAVING FILLED IN AS EXPECTED.
JUST TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. SATELLITE LOOP SHOW A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS SW NY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...AS EVIDENT BY
CLEARING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...TOO LATE TO ALLOW FOR ANY SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON HERE...BUT PERHAPS SOME LIMITED CLEARING LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A DIFFICULT CALL HOWEVER...AND EVEN IF WE DO
CLEAR...FOG IS AGAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATER TONIGHT AND TWD
DAYBREAK DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEW PTS AND EXPERIENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING. SO...WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE SKY GRIDS A BIT
THIS EVENING...THEN ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TO 8-9 AM SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...OF WHICH WE HAVE
HAD QUITE A FEW DURING THIS UNUSUALLY PLEASANT NOVEMBER. FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND WE
WILL HAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL...UNLIKE TODAY WHERE
TROF WAS PRESENT. 925 MB TEMP OF +6C WOULD SUPPORT L-M 50S WITH A
DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE...AND THAT IS THE QUESTION. WE WILL LIKELY
START OFF THE DAY WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG...AND WITH SUCH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LATE NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...WILL AGAIN HAVE
DIFFICULTY BURNING IT OFF...BUT EXPECT THE MOIST LAYER TO BE MUCH
SHALLOWER THAN TODAY`S...SO WILL THEREFORE ERODE CLOUD QUICKLY IN
THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME..LEADING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSER
TO MAV MAXES...MOSTLY L-M 50S...BUT AN EARLIER BREAKOUT TO SUNSHINE
WOULD RESULT IN EVEN MILDER TEMPS. NORMAL FOR NOV 22 IS 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM NEW BRUNSWICK
SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SUNDAY
NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. EXPECT LOWS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S NORTH COUNTRY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER, TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.

THE HIGH WILL BRING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
850 TEMPS OF +2 TO +4C SHLD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS FROM
THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FINGER
LKS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LK ONTARIO COUNTIES AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKS WEST ARND THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE HAM KEEPS FAR WESTERN AREAS DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK WEST TO
THE CENTRAL LKS WHILE THE GFS TRIES SPREADING SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORT WAVE INTO THE FAR WEST
PTNS OF OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS IN
THE FAR WEST.

ON TUESDAY, WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA AS
MUCH OF OUR REGION IS BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE MORNING FROM THE COASTAL SYS MNLY JUST OVER ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND SE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL LKS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
SPREADING INTO AREAS FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST. RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ST LAW VALLEY SHLD KEEP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION DRY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHLD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
NOAM SECTOR IS MORE OR LESS ZONAL...WITH TRANSIENT RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO
FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE
MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS
SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A PATTERN. THE INDICIES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

CONTINUITY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LKS AND MOVING TO
WESTERN NY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

TEMPS SHLD STILL BE WARM ENOUGH THURSDAY FOR THE PRECIP TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT THEN IT WILL GET COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIP SHLD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT IT SHLD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE CHC OF
SNOW SHWRS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHWRS IN NW FLOW SE OF LK ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE
NW FLOW SHLD SHLD CONTINUE CHC MIXED PRECIP INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DENSE STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE SATURATED
WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

DURING SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDINESS/FOG GRADUALLY MIXES OUT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE. THAT SAID...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...JJP

000
FXUS61 KOKX 212116
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
416 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND INTO THE
MARITIMES THOROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE UP COAST
MONDAY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE TRI- STATE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. SOLID SC/ST WEST OF THE CWA IS DRYING
SHARPLY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS...AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...SO EARLY MORNING FOG IS
A POSSIBILITY. THIS IS NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT
DECOUPLING SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AS NE WINDS PICK UP A BIT.

UNDERCUT MOS IN GENERAL IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS
ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTY AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LI. PERSISTENCE AND
MOS VERY CLOSE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PASSES NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE SOUTH SIDE TO INCREASE. ALL IN ALL A DECENT DAY WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH EAST WINDS.

TRICKY TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AS COLD AIR DAMMING AND LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THERE
MAY AGAIN BE A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING...THUS FORECAST LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO END UP CLOSE TO TONIGHT`S. THIS PERIOD IS PERHAPS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST OF THE SHORT TERM. IF SURFACE
WINDS STAY UP...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW GET HERE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
FORECAST.

MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A
DIFFUSE COASTAL LOW...BUT THE WIND FIELDS ARE BIT MORE ALIGNED.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED POP TO LIKELY FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON IF THE LOW
CENTER PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUT THE AREA IN THE BEST LIFT. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST IN TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE 18Z
RUN HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS 1 TO 1.5 INCH FORECAST EARLIER TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY WRAP AROUND...POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TEMP VARIATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRES DEPARTS
THE REGION TUE NGT WITH CHC POPS FOR -RA ENDING. SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS WED AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES
SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME
HEIGHTS. WITH MRGNL MOISTURE...ONLY LGT PCPN EXPECTED ATTM. A LULL
SETTLES IN WED NGT INTO THU...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE THU
AND FRI. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH A COMPLEX
REFLECTION AT THE SFC. MODELS HINT AT LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG
THE NRN GULF COAST AND TRACKING NEWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHO THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLNS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLNS ARE CLOSE AND A 980S LOW OCCLUDES OVER NRN NEW
ENGLAND SAT MRNG.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NW FLOW UNDER 10 KT SHOULD VEER N TONIGHT...AND THEN NE WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT...HIGHER AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS...
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE THE OH VALLEY BUILDS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND. RADIATION FOG WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT KSWF AND KGON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OTHER TERMINALS OUTSIDE THE NYC URBAN HEAT
ISLAND FOR THIS POSSIBILITY CLOSE TO/JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR.
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
TUE NIGHT-WED...BECOMING VFR.
THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON OCEAN WATERS
SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND
IT IS POSSIBLE THE THE WATERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND
WILL NOT SEE 25 KTS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING GALE FORCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LINGER TUE NGT INTO WED...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AS LOW PRES WEAKENS N OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A COMPLEX LOW
PRES SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI. DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 212057
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
357 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE FROM LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SRPEAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...REGION COVERED UNDER A LOW STRATUS DECK AT MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME EARLIER SUNNY BREAKS HAVING FILLED IN AS EXPECTED.
JUST TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. SATELLITE LOOP SHOW A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS SW NY AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...AS EVIDENT BY
CLEARING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...TOO LATE TO ALLOW FOR ANY SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON HERE...BUT PERHAPS SOME LIMITED CLEARING LATER THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A DIFFICULT CALL HOWEVER...AND EVEN IF WE DO
CLEAR...FOG IS AGAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY LATER TONIGHT AND TWD
DAYBREAK DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGH DEW PTS AND EXPERIENCE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING. SO...WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE SKY GRIDS A BIT
THIS EVENING...THEN ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TO 8-9 AM SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY...OF WHICH WE HAVE
HAD QUITE A FEW DURING THIS UNUSUALLY PLEASANT NOVEMBER. FAIRLY
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...AND WE
WILL HAVE RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL...UNLIKE TODAY WHERE
TROF WAS PRESENT. 925 MB TEMP OF +6C WOULD SUPPORT L-M 50S WITH A
DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE...AND THAT IS THE QUESTION. WE WILL LIKELY
START OFF THE DAY WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG...AND WITH SUCH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LATE NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE...WILL AGAIN HAVE
DIFFICULTY BURNING IT OFF...BUT EXPECT THE MOIST LAYER TO BE MUCH
SHALLOWER THAN TODAY`S...SO WILL THEREFORE ERODE CLOUD QUICKLY IN
THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME..LEADING TO A SUNNY AFTERNOON. WILL GO CLOSER
TO MAV MAXES...MOSTLY L-M 50S...BUT AN EARLIER BREAKOUT TO SUNSHINE
WOULD RESULT IN EVEN MILDER TEMPS. NORMAL FOR NOV 22 IS 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM NEW BRUNSWICK
SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. SUNDAY
NIGHT THE HIGH WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME PTCHY FOG
ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. EXPECT LOWS GENLY FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S NORTH COUNTRY AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER, TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE.

THE HIGH WILL BRING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION MONDAY.
850 TEMPS OF +2 TO +4C SHLD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS FROM
THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FINGER
LKS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LK ONTARIO COUNTIES AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WORKS WEST ARND THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE HAM KEEPS FAR WESTERN AREAS DRY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK WEST TO
THE CENTRAL LKS WHILE THE GFS TRIES SPREADING SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORT WAVE INTO THE FAR WEST
PTNS OF OUR CWA. AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS IN
THE FAR WEST.

ON TUESDAY, WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA AS
MUCH OF OUR REGION IS BETWEEN THE LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE MORNING FROM THE COASTAL SYS MNLY JUST OVER ALLEGANY
COUNTY AND SE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER
50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTSERN
AND CENTRAL LKS WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
SPREADING INTO AREAS FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST. RETREAING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ST LAW VALLEY SHLD KEEP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION DRY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHLD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
NOAM SECTOR IS MORE OR LESS ZONAL...WITH TRANSIENT RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO
FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE
MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS
SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

CONTINUITY STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A BIG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WITH
A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LKS AND MOVING TO
WESTERN NY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

TEMPS SHLD STILL BE WARM ENOUGH THURSDAY FOR THE PRECIP TO BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT THEN IT WILL GET COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW, CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS TOWARD FRIDAY
MORNING. THE PRECIP SHLD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN/SNOW SHWRS FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY NIGHT IT SHLD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL AREAS TO SEE CHC OF
SNOW SHWRS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHWRS IN NW FLOW SE OF LK ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE
NW FLOW SHLD SHLD CONTINUE CHC MIXED PRECIP INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DENSE STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING...PERHAPS BREAKING UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG TO FORM. WILL THEREFORE EXPECT
MVFR CIGS...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDINESS FINALLY BURNS OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT IS FAIRLY LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...JJP

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY
WX. ONLY PROBLEMATICAL QUESTION IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
LONG PESKY LL STRATOCUMULUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT ACARS DATA OUT OF MONTREAL (CYUL) CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE THOUGH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MANY AREAS TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
BR/FG. WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT BY LATE
NOVEMBER STANDARDS ...BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND MIST
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. ANY FOG OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z
SUNDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBGM 212021
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
MAKING FOR A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWEST TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS PRIMARILY THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION WITH THE LAKE
PLAIN AND NE PA SEEING IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

WITH OVERCAST SKIES WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE,
BASICALLY MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH TEMPS AROUND 40 IN THE LAKE PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BRING DRYER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEFT OVER
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN. SOME
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS WILL AID THE
CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND
GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING`S
SREF`S INDICATE A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHC FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHEAST PA. BASED ON THIS HAVE EDGED POPS UP FROM LOW CHC
TO HIGH CHC DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY/S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DURING THIS
PERIOD. HPC FAVORS A ECMWF/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND WILL THUS STRICTLY
FOLLOW THEIR GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION. THESE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT A DEEP TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
WEDS-THURS TIME FRAME AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE EAST FRI-SAT.
INITIALLY THE TRENDS LOOK A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODELS...AND
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR TUES NIGHT BEFORE ALLOWING CHANCE POPS TO
COVER THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.
CNY/NEPA REMAINS ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY RAIN AS
THE PTYPE. THEN THE AIR LOOKS TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH ON NWLY FLOW FRI
NITE AND SATURDAY FOR POTENTIAL LES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WE HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAKE PRONE
VECTORS FROM 270-300 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.
AT KSYR/KELM/KAVP, CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS AROUND
3,500 FT THIS EVENING BUT MVFR CIGS ARE AGAIN LIKELY BTW 08Z-12Z.
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT/BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY OR LIGHT NNE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KALY 211946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211927
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
227 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP OUR SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY
TODAY. ON SUNDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD OVERHEAD HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
MAKING FOR A BRIGHT END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE.
MAXES WILL BE AROUND 50. CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJ MADE.

THE OFTEN MOISTURE LADEN NAM KEEPS IN MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY THINNING OUT THE DECK
OF CLOUDS GRADUALLY. THE KEY WORD TONIGHT WILL BE GRADUALLY AS
EVEN THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS DOES NOT SHOW DRYING BELOW THE
INVERSION UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BRING DRYER AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. LEFT OVER
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN. SOME
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS WILL AID THE
CLEARING EARLY SUNDAY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF AND
GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS MORNING`S
SREF`S INDICATE A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHC FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH
THIS WAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER NORTHEAST PA. BASED ON THIS HAVE EDGED POPS UP FROM LOW CHC
TO HIGH CHC DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 101 AM...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL STAY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES
LOOK GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT.

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STILL CARRIES PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION (MORE LIKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT)...WITH WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS MUCH
FASTER IN CARRYING ENERGY EASTWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THAT POINT. GIVEN ALL THE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WON`T TINKER MUCH WITH OUR GOING
FORECAST...WHICH DOES MENTION AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONE WELL AGREED UPON SCENARIO IS THAT WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...AS A STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME LAKE RESPONSE...WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.
AT KSYR/KELM/KAVP, CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS AROUND
3,500 FT THIS EVENING BUT MVFR CIGS ARE AGAIN LIKELY BTW 08Z-12Z.
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT/BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY OR LIGHT NNE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EMH/RRM
NEAR TERM...EMH/RRM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY
WX. ONLY PROBLEMATICAL QUESTION IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
LONG PESKY LL STRATOCUMULUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT ACARS DATA OUT OF MONTREAL (CYUL) CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE THOUGH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MANY AREAS TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
BR/FG. WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT BY LATE
NOVEMBER STANDARDS ...BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND MIST
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. ANY FOG OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z
SUNDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 211829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 941 AM EST SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE TODAY AND TONIGHT
PERIOD...MAINLY TO REFLECT MUCH SLOWER EROSION OF PESKY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM CYUL THIS MORNING SHOWING
IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LL INVERSION NEAR 900 MB...WHICH IS ACTING TO
TRAP RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
OROGRAPHICALLY...ALBEIT LIGHT NORHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...HARD TO DISAGREE W/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FCSTS
SHOWING LL STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESP IN THE
NORTHERN MTNS. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC CHCS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY IN THESE AREAS. SOME PEEKS OF SUN MORE LIKELY BY
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SC VT. BY
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY THIN/ERODE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. REST OF FCST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE IN REGARD TO WIND/TEMPS...SO OTHER THAN SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS NOTED ABOVE NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST. EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA BFR BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LEFT OVER FOR MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE
CONSTRAINED FROM EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP W/RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND MIST
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
...AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANY FOG OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUNDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211811
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE TRI-STATE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW ST/SC OVER CENTRAL
NY/PA IS DRYING UP NICELY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR A MINOR
TWEAK TO CLOUD COVER (GENERALLY DOWNWARD). TEMPS APPROACHING
AFTERNOON HIGHS AT THIS TIME...WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM 700 HPA TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND
ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT SHOULD HAVE DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S (AROUND 40-MID 40S NYC
METRO). THESE VALUES ARE NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE NYC METRO AND FOLLOWED COOLER MET GUIDANCE (MAV TOO
WARM GIVEN EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF COLD AIR MOVING IN).

DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY...LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND
950 HPA AND MINIMIZING ANY CLOUD COVER. SO EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...WILL ONLY HAVE HIGHS AROUND 50 - OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR).

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE
FLOW TO SET UP...BUT DAMMING SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION...AS A RESULT WILL END UP SEEING LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT (ONCE AGAIN USED COOLER MET
GUIDANCE).

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FLATTER BASE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE THAN DO
THE NAM/CMC GGEM MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DIFFERENCE ALLOWS FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET FURTHER INLAND IN THE GFS/ECMWF THAN IN
THE NAM/GGEM. THE SREF SUPPORTS THE STRUCTURE OF THE GFS/ECMWF SO
HAVE OPTED FOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM.

WITH OVER RUNNING SETTING UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRING CHANCE POPS TO ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH
500 AND 700 HPA SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
TEMPERATURES USED MET/MAV BLEND MONDAY AND MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN
BLEND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT (CLOUD COVER/RAIN LIMITING
DIURNAL RANGE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED WITH ALL THE MODELS
SHOWING SOMETHING DIFFERENT. GGEM IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH
COASTAL LOW FOR TUESDAY...GEFS SLOWEST AND MOST SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH (LIKE YESTERDAY/S 12Z ECMWF) AND GFS AND ECMWF IN BETWEEN
(WITH ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS).

FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
MAINTAINS TWO DISTINCT CUTOFF LOWS (ACTUALLY LINKING THE FIRST
ONE WHICH IT HAS PASSING TO OUR NW WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK)...WHILE THE ECMWF ABSORBS THE
SECOND CHUNK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE FIRST CUTOFF LOW WITH
THIS LOW SLOWLY CROSSING THE NE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GGEM
MAINTAINS TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS WITHOUT ANY PHASING...BUT
DOES SUGGEST BY LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AS NOTED IN THE FIRST SENTENCE OF THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...SO EXPECT
CHANGES.

APPEARS FOR NOW THAT RAIN WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...THEN TAPER
OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS (CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT). WHILE THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION WEDNESDAY WILL END UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...IF GFS ENDS UP BEING RIGHT....COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ON THE FLIP SIDE...GFS WOULD
HAVE THINGS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF BRINGS IN
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATED CUTOFF...SO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BOTH PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST RAIN FROM CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW
N/W OF NYC DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF CUTOFF LOW AND HOW MUCH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ACTUALLY ENDS UP MOVING IN WITH IT)...SO
CHANCE POPS.

FOR TEMPERATURES USED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND WITH THE HIGH
MEMBER OF THE MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THOSE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NW FLOW UNDER 10 KT SHOULD VEER N TONIGHT...AND THEN NE WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT...HIGHER AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS...
TOWARD OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE THE OH VALLEY BUILDS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND. RADIATION FOG WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT KSWF AND KGON...AND
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OTHER TERMINALS OUTSIDE THE NYC URBAN HEAT
ISLAND FOR THIS POSSIBILITY CLOSE TO/JUST AFTER SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...VFR.
MON...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MON NIGHT-TUE...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
TUE NIGHT-WED...BECOMING VFR.
THU...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WATERS TODAY RESULTS IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STRENGTHENS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THE TO THE NORTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A COASTAL LOW TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS...GUSTS...AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE
BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW AT THIS TIME. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE REASONABLE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...PFM
LONG TERM...PFM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/PFM
HYDROLOGY...BG/PFM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211754
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1254 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP OUR SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY
TODAY. ON SUNDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD OVERHEAD HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
MAKING FOR A BRIGHT END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE.
MAXES WILL BE AROUND 50. CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJ MADE.

THE OFTEN MOISTURE LADEN NAM KEEPS IN MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY THINNING OUT THE DECK
OF CLOUDS GRADUALLY. THE KEY WORD TONIGHT WILL BE GRADUALLY AS
EVEN THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS DOES NOT SHOW DRYING BELOW THE
INVERSION UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM...SUNDAY WILL BE THE PAY OFF DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE A DISTANT
MEMORY WITH A SUN FILLED DAY. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW US BARELY MIXING TO 925 MB AND WITH HP
IN CONTROL WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ADDING TO THE TEMP FORECAST
PROBLEM SUNDAY IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS AND NAM ARE ABOUT 3C APART
ON 925 MB TEMP FORECASTS. THE GFS WITH 925S AROUND 5 OR 6 IS
SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S WHILE THE NAM IS CLOSER TO
50 AGAIN WITH 925S AROUND 3. I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT MY
GUT SAYS DESPITE THE SUNSHINE THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE WILL BE MORE
ACCURATE GIVEN THE LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL (LIGHT WINDS, LOW
INVERSION).

FORECAST PROBLEMS BEGIN BY MONDAY AS THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
TRYING TO RESOLVE THE 500 TROF NOW OVER SOUTHEAST TX. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING IN MOISTURE ON
MONDAY...BY KEEPING THE 500 TROF MUCH STRONGER. THE OTHER
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GEM AND NAM KEEP THE 500 TROF MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE AND FOCUS MORE ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE DELMARVA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM AND GEM WAS
USED WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEPA UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. THE NEW EURO IS IN AND SEEMS TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS CAMP AND THE GEM/NAM KEEP BY KEEPING
THE WAVE MORE OPEN (LIKE THE NAM/GEM MODELS) BUT STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE IN OUR AREA. OVERALL THE IDEA REMAINS THE
SAME...BEST CHANCES FOR MOISTURE WILL BE THE FARTHER SOUTH/EAST
YOU GO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 101 AM...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL STAY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES
LOOK GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT.

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STILL CARRIES PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION (MORE LIKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT)...WITH WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS MUCH
FASTER IN CARRYING ENERGY EASTWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THAT POINT. GIVEN ALL THE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WON`T TINKER MUCH WITH OUR GOING
FORECAST...WHICH DOES MENTION AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONE WELL AGREED UPON SCENARIO IS THAT WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...AS A STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME LAKE RESPONSE...WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY.
AT KSYR/KELM/KAVP, CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS AROUND
3,500 FT THIS EVENING BUT MVFR CIGS ARE AGAIN LIKELY BTW 08Z-12Z.
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH SCT/BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON SUNDAY OR LIGHT NNE.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EMH/RRM
NEAR TERM...EMH/RRM
SHORT TERM...EMH
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KALY 211736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL AT
ALB AND GFL AS MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU...SO
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AT BEST. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AT 10 KT OR LESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN...AND BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...CLEARING WILL BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD BE AROUND 04Z AT GFL...AND 06Z AT KALB.
ONCE THE SKY SLEARS...AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY AROUND KGFL...THROUGH SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM...BUT IN SOME AREAS LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED-THU...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 211726
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1226 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...REGION COVERED UNDER A LOW STRATUS DECK AT
MIDDAY...WITH SOME EARLIER SUNNY BREAKS HAVING FILLED IN AS
EXPECTED. JUST TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOW A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS NW PA AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS
WAKE...AS EVIDENT BY CLEARING OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT PROBABLY
TOO LATE TO ALLOW FOR ANY OF THIS CLEARING TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
TODAY...WITH SUNSET BEFORE 5 PM. AND...ANY CLEARING TONIGHT WOULD
LEAD TO SOME FOG TWD DAYBREAK. TEMPS STEADY IN M-U 40S ATTM AND
WILL BE GOING NOWHERE THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE DENSE LOW DECK. A
VERY NOVEMBERLIKE LOOK TO THE DAY. TWEAKED TEMP AND SKY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...

MODELS CONTINUING TO INSIST THAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE WILL HELP PUSH OUT THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME SHALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. ANY
CLEARING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WHICH CAN TAKE PLACE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED WILL
LEAN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TOWARD BIAS CORRECTION NUMBERS
SUGGESTING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRETCH FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER IN THE MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT EXPECT CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY ERODE THIS AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +4C
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. SIMILAR 850MB TEMPS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME
APPARENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM. MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
TAKE A PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM AND PLUME OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE UP TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SPAWNING
A WEAK COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS A NOTABLE PERIOD
OF RAIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
GFS SOLUTION. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM EMPHASIZE THE COASTAL SYSTEM
ONLY...KEEPING ALL OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS HUGE...
WITH A RAINY GFS SOLUTION VERSUS A DRY AND EVEN PARTLY SUNNY NAM
SOLUTION.

THE NEW 00Z ECMWF JUST COMING IN ALSO SUPPORTS THE NAM SOLUTION WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP FOCUSING ALONG THE COAST. WILL CHOOSE
TO FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THROW OUT THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
ALLOWS US TO STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
MOISTURE MAKING IT BACK THAT FAR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
NOAM SECTOR IS MORE OR LESS ZONAL...WITH TRANSIENT RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO
FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE
MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS
SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THERE ARE STILL THE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT A LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS
FIRST LOW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DOES COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN GEM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING BOTH SYSTEMS.

FOR NOW...GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL SIMPLY STICK WITH
FORECAST CONTINUITY AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE FORECAST. ON
THANKSGIVING...THE GFS FORECASTS 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -4C WHILE THE
ECMWF...WITH ITS SLOWER SINGLE LOW EVOLUTION HAS 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING STILL. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS/GEM IDEA... BUT EVEN
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
EVERYWHERE. AT THIS TIME...PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW...WITH JUST WEAK WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND AN
UNFAVORABLE NW FLOW PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING...PERHAPS BREAKING UP A BIT LATER
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG TO FORM. WILL THEREFORE EXPECT
MVFR CIGS...WITH PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDINESS FINALLY BURNS OFF AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDES FOR SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT IS FAIRLY LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE
WEST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SFM/TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211632
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1132 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP OUR SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY
TODAY. ON SUNDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD OVERHEAD HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
MAKING FOR A BRIGHT END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP
AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE.
MAXES WILL BE AROUND 50. CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJ MADE.

THE OFTEN MOISTURE LADEN NAM KEEPS IN MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY THINNING OUT THE DECK
OF CLOUDS GRADUALLY. THE KEY WORD TONIGHT WILL BE GRADUALLY AS
EVEN THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS DOES NOT SHOW DRYING BELOW THE
INVERSION UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM...SUNDAY WILL BE THE PAY OFF DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE A DISTANT
MEMORY WITH A SUN FILLED DAY. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW US BARELY MIXING TO 925 MB AND WITH HP
IN CONTROL WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ADDING TO THE TEMP FORECAST
PROBLEM SUNDAY IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS AND NAM ARE ABOUT 3C APART
ON 925 MB TEMP FORECASTS. THE GFS WITH 925S AROUND 5 OR 6 IS
SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S WHILE THE NAM IS CLOSER TO
50 AGAIN WITH 925S AROUND 3. I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT MY
GUT SAYS DESPITE THE SUNSHINE THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE WILL BE MORE
ACCURATE GIVEN THE LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL (LIGHT WINDS, LOW
INVERSION).

FORECAST PROBLEMS BEGIN BY MONDAY AS THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
TRYING TO RESOLVE THE 500 TROF NOW OVER SOUTHEAST TX. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING IN MOISTURE ON
MONDAY...BY KEEPING THE 500 TROF MUCH STRONGER. THE OTHER
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GEM AND NAM KEEP THE 500 TROF MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE AND FOCUS MORE ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE DELMARVA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM AND GEM WAS
USED WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEPA UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. THE NEW EURO IS IN AND SEEMS TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS CAMP AND THE GEM/NAM KEEP BY KEEPING
THE WAVE MORE OPEN (LIKE THE NAM/GEM MODELS) BUT STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE IN OUR AREA. OVERALL THE IDEA REMAINS THE
SAME...BEST CHANCES FOR MOISTURE WILL BE THE FARTHER SOUTH/EAST
YOU GO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 101 AM...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL STAY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES
LOOK GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT.

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STILL CARRIES PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION (MORE LIKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT)...WITH WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS MUCH
FASTER IN CARRYING ENERGY EASTWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THAT POINT. GIVEN ALL THE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WON`T TINKER MUCH WITH OUR GOING
FORECAST...WHICH DOES MENTION AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONE WELL AGREED UPON SCENARIO IS THAT WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...AS A STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME LAKE RESPONSE...WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR KSYR...KRME...KITH...AND KBGM...MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...CLEARING SKIES ANTICIPATED...WITH A RETURN TO VFR AT
THAT POINT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY...TURNING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

AT KELM...AFTER A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...CLOUD BASES
SHOULD LIFT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY...TURNING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

FOR KAVP...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY...WILL TURN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EMH/RRM
NEAR TERM...EMH/RRM
SHORT TERM...EMH
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KALY 211555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1055 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 941 AM EST SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE TODAY AND TONIGHT
PERIOD...MAINLY TO REFLECT MUCH SLOWER EROSION OF PESKY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM CYUL THIS MORNING SHOWING
IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LL INVERSION NEAR 900 MB...WHICH IS ACTING TO
TRAP RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
OROGRAPHICALLY...ALBEIT LIGHT NORHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...HARD TO DISAGREE W/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FCSTS
SHOWING LL STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESP IN THE
NORTHERN MTNS. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC CHCS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY IN THESE AREAS. SOME PEEKS OF SUN MORE LIKELY BY
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SC VT. BY
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY THIN/ERODE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. REST OF FCST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE IN REGARD TO WIND/TEMPS...SO OTHER THAN SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS NOTED ABOVE NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST. EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA BFR BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LEFT OVER FOR MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE
CONSTRAINED FROM EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP W/RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
AROUND 18Z...IMPROVING TO VFR EVENTUALLY SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z. SOME AREAS
OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER THIS MORNING...NOTABLY
AT KMPV...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY 14Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT
PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN TERRAINE OF SE VT TUE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 211433
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
933 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...LOCALLY DENSE FOG FORMED AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA..BUT IT HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AS OF 1430Z. WE
WILL THEN HAVE TO DEAL WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TODAY...WITH SOME BREAKS ON VIS SATELLITE ATTM..ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN
SRN TIER...SET TO FILL IN AS WE GET A BIT OF MIXING. WV LOOP SHOWS
WEAK MID LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS NRN OHIO WITH SOME ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS OVER LK ERIE AND EVEN A FEW LK EFF SHWRS NORTH OF
CLEVE. THESE SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE BY NOON AS THEY DRIFT EAST BUT
WILL INSERT SLGT CHC POPS CHAUT CO TILL ABOUT 17Z. OTHERWISE...OUR
PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE "DIRTY" SFC HIGH SPRAWLED OVER THE
LAKES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SUNNY BREAKS...BUT JUST TOO MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR MUCH...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WONT BUDGE MUCH...HOLDING
MOSTLY IN U40S WITH LGT WINDS.

MODELS CONTINUING TO INSIST THAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE WILL HELP PUSH OUT THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME SHALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. ANY
CLEARING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING
WHICH CAN TAKE PLACE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED WILL
LEAN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TOWARD BIAS CORRECTION NUMBERS
SUGGESTING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRETCH FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER IN THE MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT EXPECT CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY ERODE THIS AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +4C
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. SIMILAR 850MB TEMPS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME
APPARENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM. MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
TAKE A PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM AND PLUME OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE UP TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SPAWNING
A WEAK COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS A NOTABLE PERIOD
OF RAIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
GFS SOLUTION. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM EMPHASIZE THE COASTAL SYSTEM
ONLY...KEEPING ALL OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS HUGE...
WITH A RAINY GFS SOLUTION VERSUS A DRY AND EVEN PARTLY SUNNY NAM
SOLUTION.

THE NEW 00Z ECMWF JUST COMING IN ALSO SUPPORTS THE NAM SOLUTION WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP FOCUSING ALONG THE COAST. WILL CHOOSE
TO FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THROW OUT THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
ALLOWS US TO STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
MOISTURE MAKING IT BACK THAT FAR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
NOAM SECTOR IS MORE OR LESS ZONAL...WITH TRANSIENT RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO
FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE
MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS
SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THERE ARE STILL THE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT A LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS
FIRST LOW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DOES COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN GEM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING BOTH SYSTEMS.

FOR NOW...GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL SIMPLY STICK WITH
FORECAST CONTINUITY AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE FORECAST. ON
THANKSGIVING...THE GFS FORECASTS 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -4C WHILE THE
ECMWF...WITH ITS SLOWER SINGLE LOW EVOLUTION HAS 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING STILL. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS/GEM IDEA... BUT EVEN
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
EVERYWHERE. AT THIS TIME...PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW...WITH JUST WEAK WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND AN
UNFAVORABLE NW FLOW PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLIER IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG WILL HAVE IMPROVED TO
MVFR CIGS OVER ALL SITES BY 15Z. PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES
AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CLEARING
SKIES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY...ALTHOUGH CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...EAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CHOPPY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SFM/TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SFM/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211206
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER
BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE
WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BFR
BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR
MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE CONSTRAINED FROM
EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP W/
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
AROUND 18Z...IMPROVING TO VFR EVENTUALLY SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z. SOME AREAS
OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER THIS MORNING...NOTABLY
AT KMPV...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY 14Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT
PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN TERRAINE OF SE VT TUE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 211152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A MID LEVEL WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING TODAY AND
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MODELS CONTINUING TO INSIST THAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE WILL HELP PUSH OUT THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME SHALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. ANY
CLEARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING WHICH CAN TAKE PLACE. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED WILL LEAN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TOWARD BIAS CORRECTION NUMBERS SUGGESTING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRETCH FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER IN THE MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT EXPECT CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY ERODE THIS AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +4C
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. SIMILAR 850MB TEMPS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME
APPARENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM. MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
TAKE A PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM AND PLUME OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE UP TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SPAWNING
A WEAK COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS A NOTABLE PERIOD
OF RAIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
GFS SOLUTION. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM EMPHASIZE THE COASTAL SYSTEM
ONLY...KEEPING ALL OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS HUGE...
WITH A RAINY GFS SOLUTION VERSUS A DRY AND EVEN PARTLY SUNNY NAM
SOLUTION.

THE NEW 00Z ECMWF JUST COMING IN ALSO SUPPORTS THE NAM SOLUTION WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP FOCUSING ALONG THE COAST. WILL CHOOSE
TO FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THROW OUT THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
ALLOWS US TO STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
MOISTURE MAKING IT BACK THAT FAR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
NOAM SECTOR IS MORE OR LESS ZONAL...WITH TRANSIENT RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO
FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE
MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS
SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THERE ARE STILL THE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT A LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS
FIRST LOW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DOES COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN GEM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING BOTH SYSTEMS.

FOR NOW...GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL SIMPLY STICK WITH
FORECAST CONTINUITY AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE FORECAST. ON
THANKSGIVING...THE GFS FORECASTS 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -4C WHILE THE
ECMWF...WITH ITS SLOWER SINGLE LOW EVOLUTION HAS 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING STILL. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS/GEM IDEA... BUT EVEN
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
EVERYWHERE. AT THIS TIME...PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW...WITH JUST WEAK WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND AN
UNFAVORABLE NW FLOW PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE...PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO CIRCULATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY.
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CLEARING SKIES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY...ALTHOUGH CHOPPY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS...EAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CHOPPY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 211137
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE TRI-STATE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 700 HPA AND 500 HPA TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT MIXING TO AROUND 925 HPA...THIS COUPLED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL PRODUCE HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S (ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONSISTENT
WITH A MAV/MET BLEND).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM 700 HPA TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND
ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT SHOULD HAVE DECENT R ADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S (AROUND 40-MID 40S NYC
METRO). THESE VALUES ARE NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE NYC METRO AND FOLLOWED COOLER MET GUIDANCE (MAV TOO
WARM GIVEN EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF COLD AIR MOVING IN).

DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY...LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND
950 HPA AND MINIMIZING ANY CLOUD COVER. SO EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...WILL ONLY HAVE HIGHS AROUND 50 - OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR).

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE
FLOW TO SET UP...BUT DAMMING SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION...AS A RESULT WILL END UP SEEING LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT (ONCE AGAIN USED COOLER MET
GUIDANCE).

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FLATTER BASE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE THAN DO
THE NAM/CMC GGEM MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DIFFERENCE ALLOWS FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET FURTHER INLAND IN THE GFS/ECMWF THAN IN
THE NAM/GGEM. THE SREF SUPPORTS THE STRUCTURE OF THE GFS/ECMWF SO
HAVE OPTED FOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM.

WITH OVER RUNNING SETTING UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRING CHANCE POPS TO ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH
500 AND 700 HPA SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
TEMPERATURES USED MET/MAV BLEND MONDAY AND MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN
BLEND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT (CLOUD COVER/RAIN LIMITING
DIURNAL RANGE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED WITH ALL THE MODELS
SHOWING SOMETHING DIFFERENT. GGEM IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH
COASTAL LOW FOR TUESDAY...GEFS SLOWEST AND MOST SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH (LIKE YESTERDAY/S 12Z ECMWF) AND GFS AND ECMWF IN BETWEEN
(WITH ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS).

FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
MAINTAINS TWO DISTINCT CUTOFF LOWS (ACTUALLY LINKING THE FIRST
ONE WHICH IT HAS PASSING TO OUR NW WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK)...WHILE THE ECMWF ABSORBS THE
SECOND CHUNK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE FIRST CUTOFF LOW WITH
THIS LOW SLOWLY CROSSING THE NE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GGEM
MAINTAINS TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS WITHOUT ANY PHASING...BUT
DOES SUGGEST BY LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AS NOTED IN THE FIRST SENTENCE OF THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...SO EXPECT
CHANGES.

APPEARS FOR NOW THAT RAIN WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...THEN TAPER
OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS (CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT). WHILE THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION WEDNESDAY WILL END UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...IF GFS ENDS UP BEING RIGHT....COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ON THE FLIP SIDE...GFS WOULD
HAVE THINGS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF BRINGS IN
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATED CUTOFF...SO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BOTH PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST RAIN FROM CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW
N/W OF NYC DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF CUTOFF LOW AND HOW MUCH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ACTUALLY ENDS UP MOVING IN WITH IT)...SO
CHANCE POPS.

FOR TEMPERATURES USED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND WITH THE HIGH
MEMBER OF THE MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THOSE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS UNDER 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST...320...FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 10 KT. THE WINDS VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTH TO
NORTH NORTHEAST...360 TO 020...TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN-MON MORNING: VFR.
MON AFTERNOON-TUE: SUB-VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT: BECOMING VFR.
WED...MOST LIKELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WATERS TODAY RESULTS IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STRENGTHENS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THE TO THE NORTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A COASTAL LOW TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS...GUSTS...AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE
BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW AT THIS TIME. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE REASONABLE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PFM
NEAR TERM...PFM
SHORT TERM...PFM
LONG TERM...PFM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/PFM
HYDROLOGY...BG/PFM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 211136
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
636 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP OUR SKIES CLOUDY TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF 50. BY THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS MAKING FOR A
VERY BRIGHT END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT WITH DRY WEATHER. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKES
WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +2C/3C WE ARE JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRACK EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THAT RADAR IMAGERY TO OUR WEST SHOWS NOTHING I AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY OUR AREA WILL BE
STUCK WITH A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATO-CU BASED ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. BOTH MODELS SHOW GREATER THAN 90% RH FROM JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 3KFT. IT CERTAINLY IS A VERY SHALLOW
LAYER AS YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MUCH ABOVE THAT TO FIND AN ABSENCE
OF MOISTURE. WHILE A PEEK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY ALMOST ANYWHERE THIS SEEMS TO BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF ANY HOPE
FOR SUN. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS. 925 TEMPS AROUND 2/3 C SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 50...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925S NEAR KELM SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THAT AREA
CLOSER TO 53.

THE OFTEN MOISTURE LADEN NAM KEEPS IN MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY THINNING OUT THE DECK
OF CLOUDS GRADUALLY. THE KEY WORD TONIGHT WILL BE GRADUALLY AS
EVEN THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS DOES NOT SHOW DRYING BELOW THE
INVERSION UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM...SUNDAY WILL BE THE PAY OFF DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE A DISTANT
MEMORY WITH A SUN FILLED DAY. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW US BARELY MIXING TO 925 MB AND WITH HP
IN CONTROL WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ADDING TO THE TEMP FORECAST
PROBLEM SUNDAY IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS AND NAM ARE ABOUT 3C APART
ON 925 MB TEMP FORECASTS. THE GFS WITH 925S AROUND 5 OR 6 IS
SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S WHILE THE NAM IS CLOSER TO
50 AGAIN WITH 925S AROUND 3. I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT MY
GUT SAYS DESPITE THE SUNSHINE THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE WILL BE MORE
ACCURATE GIVEN THE LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL (LIGHT WINDS, LOW
INVERSION).

FORECAST PROBLEMS BEGIN BY MONDAY AS THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
TRYING TO RESOLVE THE 500 TROF NOW OVER SOUTHEAST TX. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING IN MOISTURE ON
MONDAY...BY KEEPING THE 500 TROF MUCH STRONGER. THE OTHER
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GEM AND NAM KEEP THE 500 TROF MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE AND FOCUS MORE ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE DELMARVA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM AND GEM WAS
USED WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEPA UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. THE NEW EURO IS IN AND SEEMS TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS CAMP AND THE GEM/NAM KEEP BY KEEPING
THE WAVE MORE OPEN (LIKE THE NAM/GEM MODELS) BUT STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE IN OUR AREA. OVERALL THE IDEA REMAINS THE
SAME...BEST CHANCES FOR MOISTURE WILL BE THE FARTHER SOUTH/EAST
YOU GO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 101 AM...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL STAY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES
LOOK GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT.

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STILL CARRIES PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION (MORE LIKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT)...WITH WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS MUCH
FASTER IN CARRYING ENERGY EASTWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THAT POINT. GIVEN ALL THE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WON`T TINKER MUCH WITH OUR GOING
FORECAST...WHICH DOES MENTION AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONE WELL AGREED UPON SCENARIO IS THAT WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...AS A STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME LAKE RESPONSE...WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR KSYR...KRME...KITH...AND KBGM...MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...CLEARING SKIES ANTICIPATED...WITH A RETURN TO VFR AT
THAT POINT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY...TURNING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

AT KELM...AFTER A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...CLOUD BASES
SHOULD LIFT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY...TURNING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET.

FOR KAVP...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KT TODAY...WILL TURN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EMH
NEAR TERM...EMH
SHORT TERM...EMH
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KALY 211119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210957
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
457 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER
BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE
WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BFR
BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR
MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE CONSTRAINED FROM
EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP W/
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210933
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
433 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY RETREATS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE TRI-STATE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A 700 HPA AND 500 HPA TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE WILL
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING IN WILL LIMIT MIXING TO AROUND 925 HPA...THIS COUPLED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL PRODUCE HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S (ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND CONSISTENT
WITH A MAV/MET BLEND).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM 700 HPA TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CREATE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...AND
ALLOW FOR DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT SHOULD HAVE DECENT R ADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S (AROUND 40-MID 40S NYC
METRO). THESE VALUES ARE NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE NYC METRO AND FOLLOWED COOLER MET GUIDANCE (MAV TOO
WARM GIVEN EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF COLD AIR MOVING IN).

DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY...LIMITING MIXING TO AROUND
950 HPA AND MINIMIZING ANY CLOUD COVER. SO EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...WILL ONLY HAVE HIGHS AROUND 50 - OR NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR).

RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE
FLOW TO SET UP...BUT DAMMING SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION...AS A RESULT WILL END UP SEEING LOWS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT (ONCE AGAIN USED COOLER MET
GUIDANCE).

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A FLATTER BASE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE THAN DO
THE NAM/CMC GGEM MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. THIS DIFFERENCE ALLOWS FOR
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET FURTHER INLAND IN THE GFS/ECMWF THAN IN
THE NAM/GGEM. THE SREF SUPPORTS THE STRUCTURE OF THE GFS/ECMWF SO
HAVE OPTED FOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM.

WITH OVER RUNNING SETTING UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON BRING CHANCE POPS TO ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH
500 AND 700 HPA SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
TEMPERATURES USED MET/MAV BLEND MONDAY AND MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN
BLEND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND 4-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT (CLOUD COVER/RAIN LIMITING
DIURNAL RANGE).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED WITH ALL THE MODELS
SHOWING SOMETHING DIFFERENT. GGEM IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH
COASTAL LOW FOR TUESDAY...GEFS SLOWEST AND MOST SURPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH (LIKE YESTERDAY/S 12Z ECMWF) AND GFS AND ECMWF IN BETWEEN
(WITH ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS).

FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
MAINTAINS TWO DISTINCT CUTOFF LOWS (ACTUALLY LINKING THE FIRST
ONE WHICH IT HAS PASSING TO OUR NW WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK)...WHILE THE ECMWF ABSORBS THE
SECOND CHUNK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE FIRST CUTOFF LOW WITH
THIS LOW SLOWLY CROSSING THE NE LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GGEM
MAINTAINS TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS WITHOUT ANY PHASING...BUT
DOES SUGGEST BY LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS THAT THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED FOR A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AS NOTED IN THE FIRST SENTENCE OF THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...SO EXPECT
CHANGES.

APPEARS FOR NOW THAT RAIN WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY...THEN TAPER
OFF TUESDAY EVENING AS COASTAL LOW DEPARTS (CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT). WHILE THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION WEDNESDAY WILL END UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN...IF GFS ENDS UP BEING RIGHT....COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. ON THE FLIP SIDE...GFS WOULD
HAVE THINGS DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF BRINGS IN
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATED CUTOFF...SO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BOTH PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST RAIN FROM CUTOFF
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH/CHANGING TO SNOW
N/W OF NYC DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF CUTOFF LOW AND HOW MUCH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ACTUALLY ENDS UP MOVING IN WITH IT)...SO
CHANCE POPS.

FOR TEMPERATURES USED A MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND WITH THE HIGH
MEMBER OF THE MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN BLENDED IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION AT THOSE TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
AREA. WEST WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL VEER TO THE
WEST/NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS VEER FURTHER TO THE NORTH TOWARD EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN-MON MORNING: VFR.
MON AFTERNOON-TUE: SUB-VFR LIKELY.
TUE NIGHT: BECOMING VFR.
WED...MOST LIKELY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WATERS TODAY RESULTS IN WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE HIGH BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND STRENGTHENS. WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THE TO THE NORTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR A COASTAL LOW TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS...GUSTS...AND SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD DROP
BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUESDAY AS THE FORECAST WATERS ARE
BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST DURING TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW AT THIS TIME. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN THE REASONABLE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...MALOIT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...MET

000
FXUS61 KALY 210908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z/SAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN 06Z/SAT TAF ISSUANCE.

SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/SUN AT KGFL DUE TO
GROUND FOG FORMATION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER
BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE
WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BFR
BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR
MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE CONSTRAINED FROM
EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP W/
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 210752
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
252 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A MID LEVEL WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING TODAY AND
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MODELS CONTINUING TO INSIST THAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE WILL HELP PUSH OUT THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME SHALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. ANY
CLEARING ALONG THW SOUTHERN TIER WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING WHICH CAN TAKE PLACE. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED WILL LEAN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TOWARD BIAS CORRECTION NUMBERS SUGGESTING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STRETCH FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS. SOME STRATUS MAY STILL LINGER IN THE MORNING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT EXPECT CONTINUED
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TO FINALLY ERODE THIS AND LEAVE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +4C
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. SIMILAR 850MB TEMPS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME
APPARENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A WEAK COASTAL SYSTEM. MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
TAKE A PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM AND PLUME OF ASSOCIATED MOISTURE UP TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY SPAWNING
A WEAK COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS ALLOWS A NOTABLE PERIOD
OF RAIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE
GFS SOLUTION. THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM EMPHASIZE THE COASTAL SYSTEM
ONLY...KEEPING ALL OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IS HUGE...
WITH A RAINY GFS SOLUTION VERSUS A DRY AND EVEN PARTLY SUNNY NAM
SOLUTION.

THE NEW 00Z ECMWF JUST COMING IN ALSO SUPPORTS THE NAM SOLUTION WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP FOCUSING ALONG THE COAST. WILL CHOOSE
TO FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THROW OUT THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS
ALLOWS US TO STAY CLOSE TO FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
MOISTURE MAKING IT BACK THAT FAR WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE
NOAM SECTOR IS MORE OR LESS ZONAL...WITH TRANSIENT RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLIES ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO
FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE
MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS
SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THERE ARE STILL THE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN
THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEMS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO EJECT A LEAD
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE MAIN
MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS
FIRST LOW ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DOES COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN GEM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWING BOTH SYSTEMS.

FOR NOW...GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL SIMPLY STICK WITH
FORECAST CONTINUITY AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY RIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES BECOME COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO BRING PRECIP TYPE ISSUES INTO THE FORECAST. ON
THANKSGIVING...THE GFS FORECASTS 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND -4C WHILE THE
ECMWF...WITH ITS SLOWER SINGLE LOW EVOLUTION HAS 850MB TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING STILL. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS/GEM IDEA... BUT EVEN
THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
EVERYWHERE. AT THIS TIME...PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL FAVORABLE
FOR ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW...WITH JUST WEAK WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND AN
UNFAVORABLE NW FLOW PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY.

AS A RESULT...THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF LATE EVENING WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS WILL START THE PERIOD IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW
VFR RANGE...BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS EVEN
BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
DURING SATURDAY...THESE CIGS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE BACK THROUGH THE
MVFR RANGE...BUT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BREAK UP WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS BLOWING DOWN THE FULL FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE
THROUGH DAYBREAK. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY...
ALTHOUGH CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS...EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

000
FXUS61 KBGM 210750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL KEEP OUR SKIES CLOUDY TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EITHER SIDE OF 50. BY THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS MAKING FOR A
VERY BRIGHT END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE
MOMENT WITH DRY WEATHER. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKES
WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND +2C/3C WE ARE JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE THAT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRACK EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THAT RADAR IMAGERY TO OUR WEST SHOWS NOTHING I AM NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY OUR AREA WILL BE
STUCK WITH A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF STRATO-CU BASED ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS. BOTH MODELS SHOW GREATER THAN 90% RH FROM JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH ABOUT 3KFT. IT CERTAINLY IS A VERY SHALLOW
LAYER AS YOU DON`T HAVE TO GO MUCH ABOVE THAT TO FIND AN ABSENCE
OF MOISTURE. WHILE A PEEK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY ALMOST ANYWHERE THIS SEEMS TO BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF ANY HOPE
FOR SUN. THE LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE
CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS. 925 TEMPS AROUND 2/3 C SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 50...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER 925S NEAR KELM SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THAT AREA
CLOSER TO 53.

THE OFTEN MOISTURE LADEN NAM KEEPS IN MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY THINNING OUT THE DECK
OF CLOUDS GRADUALLY. THE KEY WORD TONIGHT WILL BE GRADUALLY AS
EVEN THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS DOES NOT SHOW DRYING BELOW THE
INVERSION UNTIL AFTER 06Z.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM...SUNDAY WILL BE THE PAY OFF DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING RIGHT OVERHEAD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE A DISTANT
MEMORY WITH A SUN FILLED DAY. WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW US BARELY MIXING TO 925 MB AND WITH HP
IN CONTROL WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ADDING TO THE TEMP FORECAST
PROBLEM SUNDAY IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS AND NAM ARE ABOUT 3C APART
ON 925 MB TEMP FORECASTS. THE GFS WITH 925S AROUND 5 OR 6 IS
SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S WHILE THE NAM IS CLOSER TO
50 AGAIN WITH 925S AROUND 3. I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BUT MY
GUT SAYS DESPITE THE SUNSHINE THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE WILL BE MORE
ACCURATE GIVEN THE LIMITED MIXING POTENTIAL (LIGHT WINDS, LOW
INVERSION).

FORECAST PROBLEMS BEGIN BY MONDAY AS THE MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
TRYING TO RESOLVE THE 500 TROF NOW OVER SOUTHEAST TX. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING IN MOISTURE ON
MONDAY...BY KEEPING THE 500 TROF MUCH STRONGER. THE OTHER
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GEM AND NAM KEEP THE 500 TROF MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE AND FOCUS MORE ON THE POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE DELMARVA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM AND GEM WAS
USED WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY FROM NEPA UP
THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. THE NEW EURO IS IN AND SEEMS TO BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS CAMP AND THE GEM/NAM KEEP BY KEEPING
THE WAVE MORE OPEN (LIKE THE NAM/GEM MODELS) BUT STILL SHOWING
SOME MOISTURE IN OUR AREA. OVERALL THE IDEA REMAINS THE
SAME...BEST CHANCES FOR MOISTURE WILL BE THE FARTHER SOUTH/EAST
YOU GO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 101 AM...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD.

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL STAY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES
LOOK GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT.

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STILL CARRIES PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION (MORE LIKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT)...WITH WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS MUCH
FASTER IN CARRYING ENERGY EASTWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THAT POINT. GIVEN ALL THE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WON`T TINKER MUCH WITH OUR GOING
FORECAST...WHICH DOES MENTION AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONE WELL AGREED UPON SCENARIO IS THAT WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...AS A STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME LAKE RESPONSE...WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KSYR...KRME...KITH...AND KBGM...WE`RE LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. BY MIDDAY (15-18Z)...VFR SHOULD RETURN AREA-
WIDE...AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND CLOUD BASES LIFT.

WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT SATURDAY.

AT KELM AND KAVP...MAINLY VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WILL TURN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM..HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KBUF 210745
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH TRAILING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A MID LEVEL WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE IS
NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE WAVE TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
OVER THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND
FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING. WEAK FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING TODAY AND
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MODELS CONTINUING TO INSIST THAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGING ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE WILL HELP PUSH OUT THE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME SHALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD WEAKEN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. ANY
CLEARING ALONG THW SOUTHERN TIER WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING WHICH CAN TAKE PLACE. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS EXPECTED WILL LEAN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TOWARD BIAS CORRECTION NUMBERS SUGGESTING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT LOWS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. ON SUNDAY, THE HIGH MOVES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND KEEPS DRY
AIR OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MILDER AIR. UNDER
SUNNY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE ARE BIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
GFS, WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE ECMWF
AND NAM WHICH KEEP THE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK TO
WESTERN NY AND THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT GOING TOWARD THE DRIER
EC AND THE NAM. CLEAR TO MAINLY CLR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ON MONDAY, WILL CALL IT
PARTLY-MSTLY SUNNY ALTHOUGH SHLD GET AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SW
TO NE LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND STARTS OUT WITH THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE
ECMWF IN THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT WILL GO TOWARD HPC THAT IS GOING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP LOW CHC POPS GENLY FROM THE EASTERN
FINGER LKS EASTWARD.

ON TUESDAY THE GFS IS MORE INLAND WITH THE LOW MOVING IT NE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL OFFSHORE AND IT
HAS THE HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC EXTENDING SW TO THE LOWER LAKES.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HPC SOLUTION TWD ECMWF, AND KEEP FORECAST DRY
WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHLD GENLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WILL BRING IN LOW CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW OVER WESTERN LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL LKS REGION. ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS AHEAD OF
THE LOW BY SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES AT 850 BY 12Z WED. GOING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF AND HPC AND RAISING LOWS TUE NGT TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY, THE BIG DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS TAKING THE LOW
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARD JAMES BAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. HPC HAS THE LOW OVER WISCONSIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO
TOWARD HPC AND BRING IN LOW CHC OF SHWRS DURG THE DAY. GOING TWD
WARMER ECMWF SO WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S BUT HOT AS
HIGH AS HPC`S UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WED NGT FRNT GOES THROUGH WITH
CHC POPS. LATER WED NGT TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF SNOW SHWRS
MIXING IN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THANKSGIVING STILL A TOUGH CALL AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES.
SFC/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL LKS MOVES EAST AND KEEPS UNSETTLED
WX OVER THE AREA. NEW MEX GUID TEMPS SHOW MAX TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S AND HPC GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. GFS IS STILL
COLDER THAN ECMWF. AT THIS TIME GOING TWD COOLER MEX NUMBERS BUT
AFTER MIXED PRECIP IN MRNG ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
EXPECT BNDRY TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH TO BE MAINLY RAIN SHWRS BY MID DAY
INTO AFTERNOON.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW AS
IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS OVERNIGHT WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY.

AS A RESULT...THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF LATE EVENING WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS WILL START THE PERIOD IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW
VFR RANGE...BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS EVEN
BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
DURING SATURDAY...THESE CIGS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE BACK THROUGH THE
MVFR RANGE...BUT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BREAK UP WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS OF MID EVENING...HAVE DROPPED ALL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE FOR THE EAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. IN THIS LATTER
AREA...THESE SHLD DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY RANGE SAT MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...JJP/JJR

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210635
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DENSE CLOUD COVER WELL UPSTREAM INTO ONTARIO...SO ALSO
UPPED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY IN ALL AREAS. MUCH OF
THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL A FEW RETURNS APPEARING ON RADAR. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE VICINITY AND WINDS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN GREENS...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MB
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 210601
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
101 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. CUT BACK THE AREAL XTNT OF THE
LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND XPCT AREA OF SKC-SCT CLD
ACRS CNTRL NY TO FILL IN LATER TNGT. PREV BLO...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE AREA SOCKED UNDER A
LOW/MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK AS COOL WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AREA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING -RA NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO PLAIN WHICH IS THE RESULT OF A VORT MAX ROTATING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID UPPER LOW. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...GFS/WRF SFC FIELDS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY H85 TEMPS THIS EVENING
DESPITE WNW FLOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AS H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C. THAT SAID...FEEL
THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY
RESULT FROM WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING
FROM A DEVELOPING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. QUICK LOOK
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM KSYR YIELD SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH
ROUGHLY 5KFT WITH LOW-LEVEL OMEGA MAXIMIZED WITHIN THAT LAYER.
THUS...LIGHT -RA/DZ WILL LIKELY RESULT BASED ON LIMITED VERTICAL
DEPTH. OVERALL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE AND WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS LIQUID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING -RA/DZ ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE AREA REVEAL QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
AROUND THUS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF NY SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BY SUN...WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING THAT PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT
WILL BE A THING THE PAST AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS VALUES SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MODEL CONSISTENCY BEGINS TO DETERIORATE BY SUN NIGHT AS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY MON MORNING. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS THE
WRF/ECMWF/UKMET/ MAINTAIN STRONG SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS DO NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA
UNTIL MON AT THE EARLIEST AND EVEN THIS IS IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS JUST ARRIVED WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THAT SAID...HAVE CUT BACK ON POP/WX MENTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
WITH THE SURFACE WAVE OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY WILL STAY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES
LOOK GOOD FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT.

THE START OF THE HOLIDAY PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STILL CARRIES PLENTY OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION (MORE LIKE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OR THANKSGIVING
NIGHT)...WITH WEDNESDAY MAINLY DRY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS MUCH
FASTER IN CARRYING ENERGY EASTWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING AT THAT POINT. GIVEN ALL THE
MODEL DISCREPANCIES...WON`T TINKER MUCH WITH OUR GOING
FORECAST...WHICH DOES MENTION AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY. ONE WELL AGREED UPON SCENARIO IS THAT WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES.

BY FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...AS A STORM SYSTEM WINDS UP OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME LAKE RESPONSE...WITH A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KSYR...KRME...KITH...AND KBGM...WE`RE LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. BY MIDDAY (15-18Z)...VFR SHOULD RETURN AREA-
WIDE...AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND CLOUD BASES LIFT.

WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT SATURDAY.

AT KELM AND KAVP...MAINLY VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WILL TURN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210536
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1236 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH
WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY
ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL
LOW MAY APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WELL TO THE EAST ATTM. NW-W WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED...BUT REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KTS RANGE. THESE WINDS
SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE IDEAL RAD COOLING CONDITIONS. SO...IN SPITE
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN COASTAL AND URBAN
SECTIONS...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND. IF WINDS DO FULLY DECOUPLE
LATE TONIGHT...SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND THE LI PINE BARRENS
COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MIXING TO
ABOUT 950 MB /2 KFT/ SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE...WITH LOWER 60S IN URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH BUILDS MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...MINS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
AND MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING INLAND AND IN THE
LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN NYC AND HUDSON COUNTY NJ...THE ONLY REMAINING AREAS IN
THE CWA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET OFFICIALLY ENDED.
LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AND LOWER 850-1000 MB THICKNESSES
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH ARGUE FOR HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OF SAT BUT STILL A TOUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER AND
MID 50S.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN TO CREEP IN DURING SUN NIGHT-MON
REGARDING THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND
STRENGTHENS SUN NIGHT-MON...WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN FAIR WX. NAM/ECMWF AN SOME GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN GGEM REMAIN WET.
HAVE BACKED OFF EARLIER LIKELY POP...BUT WITH THE AXIS OF SURFACE
RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW...AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH...THINK
CHANCE POP IS STILL IN ORDER FOR MON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS LACK CONSISTENCY RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW SHEARING NE MON
NIGHT...AND DISPLACEMENT OF STACKED RIDGING. THIS IS RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHWARD TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD POP TO CHANCE FOR MON NIGHT.

FORECAST DETAILS CONTINUE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48.
MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD OF RIDGING TUE INTO WED AS UPPER ENERGY
DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH LATE A WEEK COASTAL SYSTEM
POSSIBLE AS UPPER ENERGY WORKS TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CHANCE POP FOR THIS PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
WEST WINDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL VEER TO THE WEST/NW AT
5 TO 10 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS VEER
FURTHER TO THE NORTH TOWARD EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN: VFR.
MON: SUB-VFR.
TUE AND WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KTS...AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
OVERALL...I EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
TOUCH 5 FEET FROM TIME TO TIME. AS SUCH...SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR THE TWO EASTERN OCEAN ZONES.

QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WHEN INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COASTAL
LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD YIELD SCA CONDITIONS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN...
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THROUGH WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPREAD IN MODEL QPF IS QUITE LARGE FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS VIRTUALLY DRY
AND STRONGER/WETTER SOLUTIONS BRINGING OVER AN INCH ESPECIALLY TO
NYC METRO. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE...SO HYDROLOGIC/FLOODING ISSUES APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 210526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1219 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED DEW POINT...POPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS. INCREASED CLOUDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO REPRESENT OVC SKIES ESP OVER
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN THOUGH SKY GRIDS
INCREASED...TEMPS AND MIN TEMP STILL ON TARGET. DECREASED POPS AS
RADAR SHOWS DECREASING DBZS ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA..WITH WINDS SHOWING A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DECREASE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z/SAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN 06Z/SAT TAF ISSUANCE.

SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/SUN AT KGFL DUE TO
GROUND FOG FORMATION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KGS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL/KGS/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KGS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 210456
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1156 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. CUT BACK THE AREAL XTNT OF THE
LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND XPCT AREA OF SKC-SCT CLD
ACRS CNTRL NY TO FILL IN LATER TNGT. PREV BLO...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE AREA SOCKED UNDER A
LOW/MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK AS COOL WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AREA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING -RA NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO PLAIN WHICH IS THE RESULT OF A VORT MAX ROTATING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID UPPER LOW. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...GFS/WRF SFC FIELDS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY H85 TEMPS THIS EVENING
DESPITE WNW FLOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AS H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C. THAT SAID...FEEL
THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY
RESULT FROM WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING
FROM A DEVELOPING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. QUICK LOOK
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM KSYR YIELD SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH
ROUGHLY 5KFT WITH LOW-LEVEL OMEGA MAXIMIZED WITHIN THAT LAYER.
THUS...LIGHT -RA/DZ WILL LIKELY RESULT BASED ON LIMITED VERTICAL
DEPTH. OVERALL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE AND WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS LIQUID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING -RA/DZ ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE AREA REVEAL QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
AROUND THUS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF NY SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BY SUN...WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING THAT PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT
WILL BE A THING THE PAST AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS VALUES SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MODEL CONSISTENCY BEGINS TO DETERIORATE BY SUN NIGHT AS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY MON MORNING. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS THE
WRF/ECMWF/UKMET/ MAINTAIN STRONG SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS DO NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA
UNTIL MON AT THE EARLIEST AND EVEN THIS IS IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS JUST ARRIVED WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THAT SAID...HAVE CUT BACK ON POP/WX MENTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY EAST OF I81. CARRIED
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REST OF EXTENDED
PERIOD, MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BUT AGREE UPON DEEP H5
TROF OVER THE MID WEST GRADUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WOULD BRING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
THANKSGIVING/THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THANKSGIVING NIGHT, BEHIND SFC LOW,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS, WITH
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KSYR...KRME...KITH...AND KBGM...WE`RE LOOKING FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. BY MIDDAY (15-18Z)...VFR SHOULD RETURN AREA-
WIDE...AS SKIES SLOWLY CLEAR AND CLOUD BASES LIFT.

WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT SATURDAY.

AT KELM AND KAVP...MAINLY VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WILL TURN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MLJ

000
FXUS61 KBUF 210419
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1119 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH TRAILING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 950 PM...HAVE MADE A QUICK SECOND UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO KEEP THE SKY COVER IN STEP WITH LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...AND BUMP UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...WHICH ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE AS OF 715 PM...PRECIPITATION HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL FORCING EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OR
LOWER FOR THIS REGION FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA...HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH SHOW A SIZABLE HOLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGIONS. FOR THIS AREA...HAVE INDICATED A SHORT PERIOD OF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT AS IS...
THE FULL EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL NOSE UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOL MOIST AIR BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF ZERO TO -2C
WILL NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THE LAKES WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUD COVER...NOT JUST TO ORGANIZED PCPN.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PCPN FREE
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HGTS RAPIDLY REBOUND OVERNIGHT. WILL USE LIKELY POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER THIS EVENT.

EXPANSIVE SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS ALL OF WRN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROFFINESS AT H5 WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PCPN TO WORRY
ABOUT...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FLOW
BELOW 10K FT SHOULD SERIOUS DELAY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING. THIS WILL
MEAN THAT CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING WHEN CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1500 FT (SEE AVIATION DISCO
BELOW).

ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH READINGS ONLY
FALLING TO AROUND 40 CLOSE TO LK ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. ALL IN ALL...TEMPS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL AVERAGE SOME 6 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT LOWS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. ON SUNDAY, THE HIGH MOVES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND KEEPS DRY
AIR OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MILDER AIR. UNDER
SUNNY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE ARE BIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
GFS, WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE ECMWF
AND NAM WHICH KEEP THE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK TO
WESTERN NY AND THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT GOING TOWARD THE DRIER
EC AND THE NAM. CLEAR TO MAINLY CLR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ON MONDAY, WILL CALL IT
PARTLY-MSTLY SUNNY ALTHOUGH SHLD GET AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SW
TO NE LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND STARTS OUT WITH THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE
ECMWF IN THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT WILL GO TOWARD HPC THAT IS GOING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP LOW CHC POPS GENLY FROM THE EASTERN
FINGER LKS EASTWARD.

ON TUESDAY THE GFS IS MORE INLAND WITH THE LOW MOVING IT NE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL OFFSHORE AND IT
HAS THE HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC EXTENDING SW TO THE LOWER LAKES.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HPC SOLUTION TWD ECMWF, AND KEEP FORECAST DRY
WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHLD GENLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WILL BRING IN LOW CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW OVER WESTERN LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL LKS REGION. ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS AHEAD OF
THE LOW BY SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES AT 850 BY 12Z WED. GOING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF AND HPC AND RAISING LOWS TUE NGT TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY, THE BIG DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS TAKING THE LOW
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARD JAMES BAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. HPC HAS THE LOW OVER WISCONSIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO
TOWARD HPC AND BRING IN LOW CHC OF SHWRS DURG THE DAY. GOING TWD
WARMER ECMWF SO WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S BUT HOT AS
HIGH AS HPC`S UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WED NGT FRNT GOES THROUGH WITH
CHC POPS. LATER WED NGT TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF SNOW SHWRS
MIXING IN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THANKSGIVING STILL A TOUGH CALL AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES.
SFC/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL LKS MOVES EAST AND KEEPS UNSETTLED
WX OVER THE AREA. NEW MEX GUID TEMPS SHOW MAX TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S AND HPC GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. GFS IS STILL
COLDER THAN ECMWF. AT THIS TIME GOING TWD COOLER MEX NUMBERS BUT
AFTER MIXED PRECIP IN MRNG ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
EXPECT BNDRY TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH TO BE MAINLY RAIN SHWRS BY MID DAY
INTO AFTERNOON.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW AS
IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS OVERNIGHT WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY.

AS A RESULT...THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF LATE EVENING WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL LINGER IN PLACE AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. CIG HEIGHTS WILL START THE PERIOD IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW
VFR RANGE...BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS EVEN
BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.
DURING SATURDAY...THESE CIGS WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE BACK THROUGH THE
MVFR RANGE...BUT WILL BE UNLIKELY TO BREAK UP WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS OF MID EVENING...HAVE DROPPED ALL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE FOR THE EAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. IN THIS LATTER
AREA...THESE SHLD DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY RANGE SAT MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...JJP/JJR

000
FXUS61 KOKX 210337
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH
WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY
ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL
LOW MAY APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WELL TO THE EAST ATTM. NW-W WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED...BUT REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KTS RANGE. THESE WINDS
SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE IDEAL RAD COOLING CONDITIONS. SO...IN SPITE
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN COASTAL AND URBAN
SECTIONS...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND. IF WINDS DO FULLY DECOUPLE
LATE TONIGHT...SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND THE LI PINE BARRENS
COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MIXING TO
ABOUT 950 MB /2 KFT/ SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE...WITH LOWER 60S IN URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH BUILDS MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...MINS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
AND MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING INLAND AND IN THE
LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN NYC AND HUDSON COUNTY NJ...THE ONLY REMAINING AREAS IN
THE CWA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET OFFICIALLY ENDED.
LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AND LOWER 850-1000 MB THICKNESSES
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH ARGUE FOR HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OF SAT BUT STILL A TOUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER AND
MID 50S.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN TO CREEP IN DURING SUN NIGHT-MON
REGARDING THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND
STRENGTHENS SUN NIGHT-MON...WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN FAIR WX. NAM/ECMWF AN SOME GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN GGEM REMAIN WET.
HAVE BACKED OFF EARLIER LIKELY POP...BUT WITH THE AXIS OF SURFACE
RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW...AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH...THINK
CHANCE POP IS STILL IN ORDER FOR MON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS LACK CONSISTENCY RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW SHEARING NE MON
NIGHT...AND DISPLACEMENT OF STACKED RIDGING. THIS IS RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHWARD TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD POP TO CHANCE FOR MON NIGHT.

FORECAST DETAILS CONTINUE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48.
MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD OF RIDGING TUE INTO WED AS UPPER ENERGY
DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH LATE A WEEK COASTAL SYSTEM
POSSIBLE AS UPPER ENERGY WORKS TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CHANCE POP FOR THIS PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEST/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT: VFR.
SUN: VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON: SUB-VFR.
TUE AND WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 25 KTS...AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE.
OVERALL...I EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD
TOUCH 5 FEET FROM TIME TO TIME. AS SUCH...SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR THE TWO EASTERN OCEAN ZONES.

QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WHEN INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COASTAL
LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD YIELD SCA CONDITIONS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN...
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THROUGH WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPREAD IN MODEL QPF IS QUITE LARGE FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS VIRTUALLY DRY
AND STRONGER/WETTER SOLUTIONS BRINGING OVER AN INCH ESPECIALLY TO
NYC METRO. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE...SO HYDROLOGIC/FLOODING ISSUES APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG/PW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG/NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG/NV

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DENSE CLOUD COVER WELL UPSTREAM INTO ONTARIO...SO ALSO
UPPED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY IN ALL AREAS. MUCH OF
THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL A FEW RETURNS APPEARING ON RADAR. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE VICINITY AND WINDS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN GREENS...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH IFR AT KSLK. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCT AT MOST SITES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS
OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS
DURING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST
AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MB
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 210250
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
950 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH TRAILING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 950 PM...HAVE MADE A QUICK SECOND UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST TO KEEP THE SKY COVER IN STEP WITH LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS...AND BUMP UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...WHICH ARE GENERALLY RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE AS OF 715 PM...PRECIPITATION HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL FORCING EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OR
LOWER FOR THIS REGION FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA...HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH SHOW A SIZABLE HOLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGIONS. FOR THIS AREA...HAVE INDICATED A SHORT PERIOD OF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT AS IS...
THE FULL EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL NOSE UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOL MOIST AIR BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF ZERO TO -2C
WILL NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THE LAKES WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUD COVER...NOT JUST TO ORGANIZED PCPN.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PCPN FREE
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HGTS RAPIDLY REBOUND OVERNIGHT. WILL USE LIKELY POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER THIS EVENT.

EXPANSIVE SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS ALL OF WRN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROFFINESS AT H5 WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PCPN TO WORRY
ABOUT...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FLOW
BELOW 10K FT SHOULD SERIOUS DELAY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING. THIS WILL
MEAN THAT CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING WHEN CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1500 FT (SEE AVIATION DISCO
BELOW).

ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH READINGS ONLY
FALLING TO AROUND 40 CLOSE TO LK ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. ALL IN ALL...TEMPS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL AVERAGE SOME 6 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT LOWS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. ON SUNDAY, THE HIGH MOVES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND KEEPS DRY
AIR OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MILDER AIR. UNDER
SUNNY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE ARE BIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
GFS, WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE ECMWF
AND NAM WHICH KEEP THE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK TO
WESTERN NY AND THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT GOING TOWARD THE DRIER
EC AND THE NAM. CLEAR TO MAINLY CLR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ON MONDAY, WILL CALL IT
PARTLY-MSTLY SUNNY ALTHOUGH SHLD GET AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SW
TO NE LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND STARTS OUT WITH THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE
ECMWF IN THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT WILL GO TOWARD HPC THAT IS GOING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP LOW CHC POPS GENLY FROM THE EASTERN
FINGER LKS EASTWARD.

ON TUESDAY THE GFS IS MORE INLAND WITH THE LOW MOVING IT NE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL OFFSHORE AND IT
HAS THE HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC EXTENDING SW TO THE LOWER LAKES.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HPC SOLUTION TWD ECMWF, AND KEEP FORECAST DRY
WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHLD GENLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WILL BRING IN LOW CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW OVER WESTERN LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL LKS REGION. ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS AHEAD OF
THE LOW BY SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES AT 850 BY 12Z WED. GOING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF AND HPC AND RAISING LOWS TUE NGT TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY, THE BIG DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS TAKING THE LOW
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARD JAMES BAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. HPC HAS THE LOW OVER WISCONSIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO
TOWARD HPC AND BRING IN LOW CHC OF SHWRS DURG THE DAY. GOING TWD
WARMER ECMWF SO WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S BUT HOT AS
HIGH AS HPC`S UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WED NGT FRNT GOES THROUGH WITH
CHC POPS. LATER WED NGT TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF SNOW SHWRS
MIXING IN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THANKSGIVING STILL A TOUGH CALL AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES.
SFC/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL LKS MOVES EAST AND KEEPS UNSETTLED
WX OVER THE AREA. NEW MEX GUID TEMPS SHOW MAX TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S AND HPC GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. GFS IS STILL
COLDER THAN ECMWF. AT THIS TIME GOING TWD COOLER MEX NUMBERS BUT
AFTER MIXED PRECIP IN MRNG ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
EXPECT BNDRY TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH TO BE MAINLY RAIN SHWRS BY MID DAY
INTO AFTERNOON.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW AS
IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS OVERNIGHT WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY.

AS A RESULT...THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF EARLY EVENING WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...THEN
WILL LINGER IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS FOR CIG HEIGHTS...THESE
WILL START THE PERIOD IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE...BEFORE
LOWERING TO MVFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPENS...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS EVEN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THEN DURING
SATURDAY...THESE CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE
WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS OF MID EVENING...HAVE DROPPED ALL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE FOR THE EAST END OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. IN THIS LATTER
AREA...THESE SHLD DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY RANGE SAT MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...JJR/JJP

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210226
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
926 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DENSE CLOUD COVER WELL UPSTREAM INTO ONTARIO...SO ALSO
UPPED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY IN ALL AREAS. MUCH OF
THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL A FEW RETURNS APPEARING ON RADAR. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE VICINITY AND WINDS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN GREENS...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS WITH SOME RAIN SHWRS AT KSLK/KMSS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS
(AROUND 3500 FT) AT REMAINDER OF TAF SITES ALONG WITH WIDELY SCT
SHWRS. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCT AT MOST SITES AFTER 18Z.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 04Z. WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST
AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MB
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 210043
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
743 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...CRNT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. CUT BACK THE AREAL XTNT OF THE
LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND XPCT AREA OF SKC-SCT CLD
ACRS CNTRL NY TO FILL IN LATER TNGT. PREV BLO...

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE AREA SOCKED UNDER A
LOW/MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK AS COOL WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AREA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING -RA NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO PLAIN WHICH IS THE RESULT OF A VORT MAX ROTATING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID UPPER LOW. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...GFS/WRF SFC FIELDS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY H85 TEMPS THIS EVENING
DESPITE WNW FLOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AS H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C. THAT SAID...FEEL
THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY
RESULT FROM WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING
FROM A DEVELOPING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. QUICK LOOK
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM KSYR YIELD SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH
ROUGHLY 5KFT WITH LOW-LEVEL OMEGA MAXIMIZED WITHIN THAT LAYER.
THUS...LIGHT -RA/DZ WILL LIKELY RESULT BASED ON LIMITED VERTICAL
DEPTH. OVERALL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE AND WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS LIQUID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING -RA/DZ ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE AREA REVEAL QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
AROUND THUS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF NY SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BY SUN...WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING THAT PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT
WILL BE A THING THE PAST AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS VALUES SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MODEL CONSISTENCY BEGINS TO DETERIORATE BY SUN NIGHT AS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY MON MORNING. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS THE
WRF/ECMWF/UKMET/ MAINTAIN STRONG SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS DO NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA
UNTIL MON AT THE EARLIEST AND EVEN THIS IS IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS JUST ARRIVED WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THAT SAID...HAVE CUT BACK ON POP/WX MENTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY EAST OF I81. CARRIED
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REST OF EXTENDED
PERIOD, MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BUT AGREE UPON DEEP H5
TROF OVER THE MID WEST GRADUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WOULD BRING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
THANKSGIVING/THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THANKSGIVING NIGHT, BEHIND SFC LOW,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS, WITH
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CRNTLY ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE PA WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT
DECK...BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD TO REDVLP ACRS CNTRL
NY AND NE PA LATER TNGT...GNRLY IN THE 05-08Z TIME FRAME ACRS
CNTRL NY AND CLOSER TO 09Z AT AVP. NAM/GFS/RUC PROFILES SHOW LOW
LVL MSTR INCRSNG LATER TNGT SUGGESTING LOWER MVFR TO IFR
CIGS...AND THIS TRNED IS ALSO REPRESENTED NICELY IN THE SREF CIG
PROBS FOR TNGT. XPCT MVFR CIGS TO HANG TUFF AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH SAT MRNG...WITH POTNL FOR IMPRVMNT TO BKN VFR CIGS DURING
THE AFTN. W 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM

000
FXUS61 KALY 210032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED DEW POINT...POPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS. INCREASED CLOUDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO REPRESENT OVC SKIES ESP OVER
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN THOUGH SKY GRIDS
INCREASED...TEMPS AND MIN TEMP STILL ON TARGET. DECREASED POPS AS
RADAR SHOWS DECREASING DBZS ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA..WITH WINDS SHOWING A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DECREASE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. REGION WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KALB-KGFL WHICH WE HAVE
INDICATED A BKN030...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM /OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ HAS RESULTED IN A
SCT-BKN020-040 WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THEREAFTER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER PRONOUNCED WITH
THIS CLOUD DECK BECOME DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PLACE A MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A SCT MID
LEVEL DECK EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KGS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KGS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 210022
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH TRAILING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 715 PM...PRECIPITATION HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL FORCING EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED POPS BACK TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE OR
LOWER FOR THIS REGION FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA...HAVE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH SHOW A SIZABLE HOLE IN THE LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGIONS. FOR THIS AREA...HAVE INDICATED A SHORT PERIOD OF
CLEARING THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADS
TO A REDEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT AS IS...
THE FULL EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW...

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL NOSE UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOL MOIST AIR BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF ZERO TO -2C
WILL NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THE LAKES WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUD COVER...NOT JUST TO ORGANIZED PCPN.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PCPN FREE
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HGTS RAPIDLY REBOUND OVERNIGHT. WILL USE LIKELY POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER THIS EVENT.

EXPANSIVE SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS ALL OF WRN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROFFINESS AT H5 WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PCPN TO WORRY
ABOUT...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FLOW
BELOW 10K FT SHOULD SERIOUS DELAY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING. THIS WILL
MEAN THAT CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING WHEN CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1500 FT (SEE AVIATION DISCO
BELOW).

ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH READINGS ONLY
FALLING TO AROUND 40 CLOSE TO LK ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. ALL IN ALL...TEMPS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL AVERAGE SOME 6 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT LOWS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. ON SUNDAY, THE HIGH MOVES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND KEEPS DRY
AIR OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MILDER AIR. UNDER
SUNNY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE ARE BIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
GFS, WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE ECMWF
AND NAM WHICH KEEP THE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK TO
WESTERN NY AND THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT GOING TOWARD THE DRIER
EC AND THE NAM. CLEAR TO MAINLY CLR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ON MONDAY, WILL CALL IT
PARTLY-MSTLY SUNNY ALTHOUGH SHLD GET AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SW
TO NE LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND STARTS OUT WITH THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE
ECMWF IN THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT WILL GO TOWARD HPC THAT IS GOING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP LOW CHC POPS GENLY FROM THE EASTERN
FINGER LKS EASTWARD.

ON TUESDAY THE GFS IS MORE INLAND WITH THE LOW MOVING IT NE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL OFFSHORE AND IT
HAS THE HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC EXTENDING SW TO THE LOWER LAKES.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HPC SOLUTION TWD ECMWF, AND KEEP FORECAST DRY
WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHLD GENLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WILL BRING IN LOW CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW OVER WESTERN LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL LKS REGION. ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS AHEAD OF
THE LOW BY SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES AT 850 BY 12Z WED. GOING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF AND HPC AND RAISING LOWS TUE NGT TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY, THE BIG DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS TAKING THE LOW
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARD JAMES BAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. HPC HAS THE LOW OVER WISCONSIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO
TOWARD HPC AND BRING IN LOW CHC OF SHWRS DURG THE DAY. GOING TWD
WARMER ECMWF SO WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S BUT HOT AS
HIGH AS HPC`S UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WED NGT FRNT GOES THROUGH WITH
CHC POPS. LATER WED NGT TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF SNOW SHWRS
MIXING IN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THANKSGIVING STILL A TOUGH CALL AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES.
SFC/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL LKS MOVES EAST AND KEEPS UNSETTLED
WX OVER THE AREA. NEW MEX GUID TEMPS SHOW MAX TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S AND HPC GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. GFS IS STILL
COLDER THAN ECMWF. AT THIS TIME GOING TWD COOLER MEX NUMBERS BUT
AFTER MIXED PRECIP IN MRNG ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
EXPECT BNDRY TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH TO BE MAINLY RAIN SHWRS BY MID DAY
INTO AFTERNOON.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW AS
IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS OVERNIGHT WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY.

AS A RESULT...THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF EARLY EVENING WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...THEN
WILL LINGER IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS FOR CIG HEIGHTS...THESE
WILL START THE PERIOD IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE...BEFORE
LOWERING TO MVFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPENS...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS EVEN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THEN DURING
SATURDAY...THESE CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE
WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVRYS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN
DROP THEM LATER TONIGHT FOR LAKE ERIE/BUF HARBOR AND FOR LK ONTARIO
FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY AND THE ST LAW RIVER AS WINDS
AND WAVES DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO DUE TO THE BRISK WESTERLY WINDS BUT THEY SHLD DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY RANGE SAT MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...JJP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 202354
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
654 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LINGERING UPPER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN
STORE FOR THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE AREA SOCKED UNDER A
LOW/MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK AS COOL WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AREA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING -RA NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO PLAIN WHICH IS THE RESULT OF A VORT MAX ROTATING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID UPPER LOW. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...GFS/WRF SFC FIELDS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY H85 TEMPS THIS EVENING
DESPITE WNW FLOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AS H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C. THAT SAID...FEEL
THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY
RESULT FROM WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING
FROM A DEVELOPING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. QUICK LOOK
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM KSYR YIELD SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH
ROUGHLY 5KFT WITH LOW-LEVEL OMEGA MAXIMIZED WITHIN THAT LAYER.
THUS...LIGHT -RA/DZ WILL LIKELY RESULT BASED ON LIMITED VERTICAL
DEPTH. OVERALL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE AND WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS LIQUID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING -RA/DZ ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE AREA REVEAL QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
AROUND THUS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF NY SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BY SUN...WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING THAT PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT
WILL BE A THING THE PAST AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS VALUES SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MODEL CONSISTENCY BEGINS TO DETERIORATE BY SUN NIGHT AS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY MON MORNING. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS THE
WRF/ECMWF/UKMET/ MAINTAIN STRONG SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS DO NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA
UNTIL MON AT THE EARLIEST AND EVEN THIS IS IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS JUST ARRIVED WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THAT SAID...HAVE CUT BACK ON POP/WX MENTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY EAST OF I81. CARRIED
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REST OF EXTENDED
PERIOD, MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BUT AGREE UPON DEEP H5
TROF OVER THE MID WEST GRADUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WOULD BRING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
THANKSGIVING/THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THANKSGIVING NIGHT, BEHIND SFC LOW,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS, WITH
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CRNTLY ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE PA WITH SCT-BKN 4-5KFT
DECK...BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD TO REDVLP ACRS CNTRL
NY AND NE PA LATER TNGT...GNRLY IN THE 05-08Z TIME FRAME ACRS
CNTRL NY AND CLOSER TO 09Z AT AVP. NAM/GFS/RUC PROFILES SHOW LOW
LVL MSTR INCRSNG LATER TNGT SUGGESTING LOWER MVFR TO IFR
CIGS...AND THIS TRNED IS ALSO REPRESENTED NICELY IN THE SREF CIG
PROBS FOR TNGT. XPCT MVFR CIGS TO HANG TUFF AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH SAT MRNG...WITH POTNL FOR IMPRVMNT TO BKN VFR CIGS DURING
THE AFTN. W 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 202352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT...BUT ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS WITH SOME RAIN SHWRS AT KSLK/KMSS...WITH MOSTLY VFR CIGS
(AROUND 3500 FT) AT REMAINDER OF TAF SITES ALONG WITH WIDELY SCT
SHWRS. EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY AROUND NOON
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUDS THEN BECOMING SCT AT MOST SITES AFTER 18Z.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AROUND 04Z. WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST
AREA EXPECTED TO BE UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 202349
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
649 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH
WILL RESULT IN FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY
ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL
LOW MAY APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WELL TO THE EAST ATTM. NW-W WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED...BUT REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KTS RANGE. THESE WINDS
SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE IDEAL RAD COOLING CONDITIONS. SO...IN SPITE
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN COASTAL AND URBAN
SECTIONS...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND. IF WINDS DO FULLY DECOUPLE
LATE TONIGHT...SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND THE LI PINE BARRENS
COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MIXING TO
ABOUT 950 MB /2 KFT/ SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE...WITH LOWER 60S IN URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH BUILDS MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...MINS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
AND MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING INLAND AND IN THE
LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN NYC AND HUDSON COUNTY NJ...THE ONLY REMAINING AREAS IN
THE CWA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET OFFICIALLY ENDED.
LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AND LOWER 850-1000 MB THICKNESSES
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH ARGUE FOR HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OF SAT BUT STILL A TOUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER AND
MID 50S.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN TO CREEP IN DURING SUN NIGHT-MON
REGARDING THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND
STRENGTHENS SUN NIGHT-MON...WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN FAIR WX. NAM/ECMWF AN SOME GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN GGEM REMAIN WET.
HAVE BACKED OFF EARLIER LIKELY POP...BUT WITH THE AXIS OF SURFACE
RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW...AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH...THINK
CHANCE POP IS STILL IN ORDER FOR MON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS LACK CONSISTENCY RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW SHEARING NE MON
NIGHT...AND DISPLACEMENT OF STACKED RIDGING. THIS IS RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHWARD TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD POP TO CHANCE FOR MON NIGHT.

FORECAST DETAILS CONTINUE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48.
MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD OF RIDGING TUE INTO WED AS UPPER ENERGY
DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH LATE A WEEK COASTAL SYSTEM
POSSIBLE AS UPPER ENERGY WORKS TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CHANCE POP FOR THIS PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WEST/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT: VFR.
SUN: VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON: SUB-VFR.
TUE AND WED...VFR LIKELY.


&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 KT...SO SCA CONTINUES THERE. OTHERWISE...SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WHEN INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COASTAL
LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD YIELD SCA CONDITIONS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN...
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THROUGH WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPREAD IN MODEL QPF IS QUITE LARGE FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS VIRTUALLY DRY
AND STRONGER/WETTER SOLUTIONS BRINGING OVER AN INCH ESPECIALLY TO
NYC METRO. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE...SO HYDROLOGIC/FLOODING ISSUES APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/PW
NEAR TERM...BG/PW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG/NV/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG/NV

000
FXUS61 KBUF 202345
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
645 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH TRAILING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL NOSE UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOL MOIST AIR BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF ZERO TO -2C
WILL NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THE LAKES WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUD COVER...NOT JUST TO ORGANIZED PCPN.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PCPN FREE
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HGTS RAPIDLY REBOUND OVERNIGHT. WILL USE LIKELY POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER THIS EVENT.

EXPANSIVE SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS ALL OF WRN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROFFINESS AT H5 WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PCPN TO WORRY
ABOUT...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FLOW
BELOW 10K FT SHOULD SERIOUS DELAY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING. THIS WILL
MEAN THAT CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING WHEN CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1500 FT (SEE AVIATION DISCO
BELOW).

ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH READINGS ONLY
FALLING TO AROUND 40 CLOSE TO LK ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. ALL IN ALL...TEMPS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL AVERAGE SOME 6 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT LOWS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. ON SUNDAY, THE HIGH MOVES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND KEEPS DRY
AIR OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MILDER AIR. UNDER
SUNNY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE ARE BIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
GFS, WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE ECMWF
AND NAM WHICH KEEP THE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK TO
WESTERN NY AND THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT GOING TOWARD THE DRIER
EC AND THE NAM. CLEAR TO MNLY CLR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO GTEH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ON MONDAY, WILL CALL IT PARTLY-MSTLY
SUNNY ALTHOUGH SHLD GET AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND STARTS OUT WITH THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE
ECMWF IN THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT WILL GO TOWARD HPC THAT IS GOING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP LOW CHC POPS GENLY FROM THE EASTERN
FINGER LKS EASTWARD.

ON TUESDAY THE GFS IS MORE INLAND WITH THE LOW MOVING IT NE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL OFFSHORE AND IT
HAS THE HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC EXTENDING SW TO THE LOWER LAKES.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HPC SOLUTION TWD ECMWF, AND KEEP FORECAST DRY
WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHLD GENLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WILL BRING IN LOW CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW OVER WESTERN LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL LKS REGION. ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS AHEAD OF
THE LOW BY SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES AT 850 BY 12Z WED. GOING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF AND HPC AND RAISING LOWS TUE NGT TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY, THE BIG DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS TAKING THE LOW
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARD JAMES BAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. HPC HAS THE LOW OVER WISCONSIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO
TOWARD HPC AND BRING IN LOW CHC OF SHWRS DURG THE DAY. GOING TWD
WARMER ECMWF SO WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S BUT HOT AS
HIGH AS HPC`S UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WED NGT FRNT GOES THROUGH WITH
CHC POPS. LATER WED NGT TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF SNOW SHWRS
MIXING IN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THANKSGIVING STILL A TOUGH CALL AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES.
SFC/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL LKS MOVES EAST AND KEEPS UNSETTLED
WX OVER THE AREA. NEW MEX GUID TEMPS SHOW MAX TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S AND HPC GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. GFS IS STILL
COLDER THAN ECMWF. AT THIS TIME GOING TWD COOLER MEX NUMBERS BUT
AFTER MIXED PRECIP IN MRNG ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
EXPECT BNDRY TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH TO BE MNLY RAIN SHWRS BY MID DAY
INTO AFTERNOON.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW AS
IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS OVERNIGHT WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CIRCULATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME
TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DURING SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES AND WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY.

AS A RESULT...THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF EARLY EVENING WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...THEN
WILL LINGER IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS FOR CIG HEIGHTS...THESE
WILL START THE PERIOD IN THE HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR RANGE...BEFORE
LOWERING TO MVFR AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPENS...WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS EVEN BECOMING POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THEN DURING
SATURDAY...THESE CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE
WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVRYS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN
DROP THEM LATER TONIGHT FOR LAKE ERIE/BUF HARBOR AND FOR LK ONTARIO
FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY AND THE ST LAW RIVER AS WINDS
AND WAVES DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO DUE TO THE BRISK WESTERLY WINDS BUT THEY SHLD DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY RANGE SAT MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...JJP

000
FXUS61 KALY 202315
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. REGION WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KALB-KGFL WHICH WE HAVE
INDICATED A BKN030...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM /OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ HAS RESULTED IN A
SCT-BKN020-040 WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THEREAFTER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER PRONOUNCED WITH
THIS CLOUD DECK BECOME DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PLACE A MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A SCT MID
LEVEL DECK EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...KGS


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KOKX 202110
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...
BRINGING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE STRENGTHENING
HIGH WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY ALLOW WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COASTAL LOW MAY
APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAD JUST CLEARED NEARBY KISP/KHWV...WITH AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NW...TEMP DROP OF SEVERAL DEGREES AND WINDS
GUSTING 30-35 MPH. NW-W WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT ONLY PARTIALLY DECOUPLE AS
WINDS BETWEEN 925-875 MB /1-2 KFT AGL/ STAY UP AT 15-20 KT.
SO DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE 40S IN COASTAL AND
URBAN SECTIONS...TO THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND. IF WINDS DO FULLY
DECOUPLE LATE TONIGHT...SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND THE LI PINE
BARRENS COULD DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE OH VALLEY WILL BE IN CONTROL
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND MIXING TO
ABOUT 950 MB /2 KFT/ SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST
GUIDANCE...WITH LOWER 60S IN URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...AND MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH BUILDS MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT...MINS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
AND MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING INLAND AND IN THE
LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FROST ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN NYC AND HUDSON COUNTY NJ...THE ONLY REMAINING AREAS IN
THE CWA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET OFFICIALLY ENDED.
LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND AND LOWER 850-1000 MB THICKNESSES
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH ARGUE FOR HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THOSE OF SAT BUT STILL A TOUCH ABOVE GUIDANCE...MAINLY LOWER AND
MID 50S.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES BEGIN TO CREEP IN DURING SUN NIGHT-MON
REGARDING THE APPROACH OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND
STRENGTHENS SUN NIGHT-MON...WHICH MAY SUPPRESS THE LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN FAIR WX. NAM/ECMWF AN SOME GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS
IDEA...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN GGEM REMAIN WET.
HAVE BACKED OFF EARLIER LIKELY POP...BUT WITH THE AXIS OF SURFACE
RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA AND MAINTAINING A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW...AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH...THINK
CHANCE POP IS STILL IN ORDER FOR MON...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS LACK CONSISTENCY RIGHT FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW SHEARING NE MON
NIGHT...AND DISPLACEMENT OF STACKED RIDGING. THIS IS RESULTING IN
DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHWARD TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD POP TO CHANCE FOR MON NIGHT.

FORECAST DETAILS CONTINUE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48.
MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD OF RIDGING TUE INTO WED AS UPPER ENERGY
DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH LATE A WEEK COASTAL SYSTEM
POSSIBLE AS UPPER ENERGY WORKS TOWARD THE COAST. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CHANCE POP FOR THIS PERIOD WITH UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DO
EXPECT AN OCNL GUST REPORT INTO THE LOWER 20S UNTIL 22Z.
SUSTAINED EXPECTED ABOVE 10 KT MOST OF THE TIME...THOUGH COULD
DIMINISH BRIEFLY BELOW 10 KT. DIRECTION PRIMARILY TO THE LEFT OF
300 (310 MAG).

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     20/18Z 28015KT
     20/19Z 28014G22KT
     20/20Z 29013KT
     20/21Z 29012G20KT
     20/22Z 29011KT
     20/23Z 30009KT
     21/00Z 30008KT
     21/01Z 30007KT
     21/02Z 30007KT
     21/03Z 30007KT

KJFK...AN OCNL GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S UNTIL 23Z.

KLGA...AN OCNL GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S UNTIL 22Z.

KTEB...AN OCNL GUST UP TO 20KT UNTIL 22Z.

KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

KGON...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...VFR.
MON-MON NIGHT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
TUE...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 KT...AND A BRIEF GUST TO 30 KT POSSIBLE BEFORE DARK AS A
SECONDARY FRONT MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS...SO SCA CONTINUES
THERE. ELSEWHERE AN OCCASIONAL 25-KT GUST IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE...UNTIL ABOUT DUSK.

QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL UNTIL LATE SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WHEN INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A COASTAL
LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD YIELD SCA CONDITIONS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN...
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THROUGH WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPREAD IN MODEL QPF IS QUITE LARGE FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT-MON NIGHT...WITH SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS VIRTUALLY DRY
AND STRONGER/WETTER SOLUTIONS BRINGING OVER AN INCH ESPECIALLY TO
NYC METRO. CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
ENVELOPE...SO HYDROLOGIC/FLOODING ISSUES APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JP/DSW
MARINE...BG/NV
HYDROLOGY...BG/NV

000
FXUS61 KBUF 202037
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH TRAILING LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE
WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL NOSE UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOL MOIST AIR BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF ZERO TO -2C
WILL NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THE LAKES WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUD COVER...NOT JUST TO ORGANIZED PCPN.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PCPN FREE
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HGTS RAPIDLY REBOUND OVERNIGHT. WILL USE LIKELY POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER THIS EVENT.

EXPANSIVE SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS ALL OF WRN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROFFINESS AT H5 WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PCPN TO WORRY
ABOUT...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FLOW
BELOW 10K FT SHOULD SERIOUS DELAY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING. THIS WILL
MEAN THAT CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING WHEN CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1500 FT (SEE AVIATION DISCO
BELOW).

ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH READINGS ONLY
FALLING TO AROUND 40 CLOSE TO LK ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. ALL IN ALL...TEMPS DUFRING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL AVERAGE SOME 6 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD THIN OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING
LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT LOWS GENLY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. ON SUNDAY, THE HIGH MOVES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND KEEPS DRY
AIR OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MILDER AIR. UNDER
SUNNY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE ARE BIG DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
GFS, WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE ECMWF
AND NAM WHICH KEEP THE RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING BACK TO
WESTERN NY AND THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THIS POINT GOING TOWARD THE DRIER
EC AND THE NAM. CLEAR TO MNLY CLR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO GTEH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ON MONDAY, WILL CALL IT PARTLY-MSTLY
SUNNY ALTHOUGH SHLD GET AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SW TO NE LATER IN
THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT, THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND STARTS OUT WITH THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN THE
ECMWF IN THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT WILL GO TOWARD HPC THAT IS GOING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEEP LOW CHC POPS GENLY FROM THE EASTERN
FINGER LKS EASTWARD.

ON TUESDAY THE GFS IS MORE INLAND WITH THE LOW MOVING IT NE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT WELL OFFSHORE AND IT
HAS THE HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC EXTENDING SW TO THE LOWER LAKES.
WILL GO ALONG WITH HPC SOLUTION TWD ECMWF, AND KEEP FORECAST DRY
WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHLD GENLY BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WILL BRING IN LOW CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW OVER WESTERN LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL LKS REGION. ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS AHEAD OF
THE LOW BY SOME 4 TO 8 DEGREES AT 850 BY 12Z WED. GOING TOWARD THE
WARMER ECMWF AND HPC AND RAISING LOWS TUE NGT TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY, THE BIG DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE GFS TAKING THE LOW
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TOWARD JAMES BAY WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY. HPC HAS THE LOW OVER WISCONSIN
WITH THE COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL GO
TOWARD HPC AND BRING IN LOW CHC OF SHWRS DURG THE DAY. GOING TWD
WARMER ECMWF SO WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S BUT HOT AS
HIGH AS HPC`S UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WED NGT FRNT GOES THROUGH WITH
CHC POPS. LATER WED NGT TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH FOR CHC OF SNOW SHWRS
MIXING IN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.

THANKSGIVING STILL A TOUGH CALL AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE GOES.
SFC/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL LKS MOVES EAST AND KEEPS UNSETTLED
WX OVER THE AREA. NEW MEX GUID TEMPS SHOW MAX TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID
40S AND HPC GUIDANCE GIVING HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 40S. GFS IS STILL
COLDER THAN ECMWF. AT THIS TIME GOING TWD COOLER MEX NUMBERS BUT
AFTER MIXED PRECIP IN MRNG ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
EXPECT BNDRY TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH TO BE MNLY RAIN SHWRS BY MID DAY
INTO AFTERNOON.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW AS
IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS WITH RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS OVERNIGHT WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. WHILE SOME DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FROM KBUF/KIAG TO KROC THIS
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WRN
SOUTHERN TIER.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH LOWERING CIGS
EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS OVER THE
WRN SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE EVENING
WILL EVNTUALLY INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF WRN NEW YORK.

WHILE MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON...THIS IS NOT EXPECETD TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COMMERCIAL TRAFFIC AT THE LARGER
(KBUF/KIAG/KROC) TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR
PRIVATE/GENERAL AVIATION. THESE CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLOW TO
LIFT.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVRYS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN
DROP THEM LATER TONIGHT FOR LAKE ERIE/BUF HARBOR AND FOR LK ONTARIO
FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY AND THE ST LAW RIVER AS WINDS
AND WAVES DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AT THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO DUE TO THE BRISK WESTERLY WINDS BUT THEY SHLD DIMINISH BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY RANGE SAT MRNG.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ044-
         045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJP

000
FXUS61 KALY 202035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KGS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 202026
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A
DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LINGERING UPPER DISTURBANCE
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE IN
STORE FOR THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE AREA SOCKED UNDER A
LOW/MID-LEVEL STRATOCU DECK AS COOL WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AREA RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING -RA NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO PLAIN WHICH IS THE RESULT OF A VORT MAX ROTATING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID UPPER LOW. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE...GFS/WRF SFC FIELDS SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NY OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY HELP
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY OVERNIGHT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY H85 TEMPS THIS EVENING
DESPITE WNW FLOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AS H85 TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C. THAT SAID...FEEL
THE BULK OF THE FORCING FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY
RESULT FROM WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG WITH WEAK FORCING
FROM A DEVELOPING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST. QUICK LOOK
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM KSYR YIELD SATURATED PROFILES THROUGH
ROUGHLY 5KFT WITH LOW-LEVEL OMEGA MAXIMIZED WITHIN THAT LAYER.
THUS...LIGHT -RA/DZ WILL LIKELY RESULT BASED ON LIMITED VERTICAL
DEPTH. OVERALL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FORM WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE AND WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...PRECIP SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS LIQUID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING -RA/DZ ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO NUDGE NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
ACROSS THE AREA REVEAL QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
AROUND THUS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF NY SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. BY SUN...WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING THAT PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION ON SAT
WILL BE A THING THE PAST AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN LAKES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS VALUES SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

MODEL CONSISTENCY BEGINS TO DETERIORATE BY SUN NIGHT AS THE GFS
SHOWS A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY MON MORNING. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER AS THE
WRF/ECMWF/UKMET/ MAINTAIN STRONG SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE EXITING TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS DO NOT BRING PRECIP INTO THE AREA
UNTIL MON AT THE EARLIEST AND EVEN THIS IS IN QUESTION AS THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS JUST ARRIVED WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THAT SAID...HAVE CUT BACK ON POP/WX MENTION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY EAST OF I81. CARRIED
CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REST OF EXTENDED
PERIOD, MODELS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BUT AGREE UPON DEEP H5
TROF OVER THE MID WEST GRADUALLY MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHEAST BY
NEXT WEEKEND.  ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WOULD BRING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
THANKSGIVING/THANKSGIVING NIGHT. THANKSGIVING NIGHT, BEHIND SFC LOW,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CHANGE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS, WITH
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LWR LVL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ARCS THE FA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NWD ACRS ERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS RIDGES NEWD. CEILINGS ARE VFR AND
MODELS STILL SHOWING THAT THERE MAY BE SOME FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
LATE THIS AFTN WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN AND LOSS OF SUNSHINE HELPING
TO DISSIPATE STRATOCU. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO HINTING THAT
IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SHORT LIVED...WITH MORE MOISTURE AND LWR
CEILINGS BACK ACROSS THE ERN LAKES THAT WILL PUSH SEWD INTO THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNGT. HAVE BROUGHT CEILINGS BACK
DOWN INTO PREDOMINATE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
EXCEPTION AT AVP WHERE TEMPO WAS USED.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY...THEN
DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...

SAT/SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING...ESP AT
RME/SYR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTN.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JML

000
FXUS61 KBTV 202016
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
316 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. SOME
AREAS OF SURFACE WIND GUST OF 20 KNOT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 14Z-17Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBUF 201939
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
239 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN CICULATE BACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LIMITED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AND SUNNIER SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL NOSE UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW OF COOL MOIST AIR BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF ZERO TO -2C
WILL NOT BE QUITE LOW ENOUGH FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ANY
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. THATS NOT TO SAY THAT THE LAKES WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUD COVER...NOT JUST TO ORGANIZED PCPN.

WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE PCPN FREE
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HGTS RAPIDLY REBOUND OVERNIGHT. WILL USE LIKELY POPS FOR
PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER THIS EVENT.

EXPANSIVE SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS ALL OF WRN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AS WEAK TROFFINESS AT H5 WILL
MOVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY PCPN TO WORRY
ABOUT...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK FLOW
BELOW 10K FT SHOULD SERIOUS DELAY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING. THIS WILL
MEAN THAT CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING WHEN CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1500 FT (SEE AVIATION DISCO
BELOW).

ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...WITH READINGS ONLY
FALLING TO AROUND 40 CLOSE TO LK ONTARIO AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL AS HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. ALL IN ALL...TEMPS DUFRING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL AVERAGE SOME 6 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CENTERED FROM THE LOWER
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL YIELD A SUNNIER DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTER LAKES WILL
SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. GFS IS
TAPPING INTO THE SHORT WAVE TO DEVELOP AN INLAND LOW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG A PHASED INVERTED TROUGH TO A LOW OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO. THE ECMWF CONCENTRATES THE ENERGY TO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND KEEPS THE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL REGION
BUT STILL BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL GO CLOSER TO
THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH PREFERS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE LIKELY POPS OFFERED BY GFS.

THE BIGGER QUESTION IS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A COLDER PERIOD WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW. A PACIFIC TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY WED
NIGHT...AND MAY PHASE WITH AN ARCTIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN AND TAP INTO COLDER AIR...ABOUT -6C TO -8C ON
THE GFS BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BRING THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR OVER
THE LAKES DURING THURSDAY WITH A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE SNOWS. ECMWF SHOWS A SMALLER BUBBLE
OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEFINED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT DOES BRING EVEN COLDER AIR IN FOR VERY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

THIS BEING SAID...WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WED NIGHT...THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS FALL DURING THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN IS LIMITED BY THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE
MODELS TO STICK TO ONE SOLUTION THROUGH THE FULL SEVEN DAYS...WHICH
HAS BEEN FLIPPING AND FLOPPING OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. WHILE SOME DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FROM KBUF/KIAG TO KROC THIS
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WRN
SOUTHERN TIER.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH LOWERING CIGS
EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS OVER THE
WRN SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE EVENING
WILL EVNTUALLY INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF WRN NEW YORK.

WHILE MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON...THIS IS NOT EXPECETD TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COMMERCIAL TRAFFIC AT THE LARGER
(KBUF/KIAG/KROC) TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR
PRIVATE/GENERAL AVIATION. THESE CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLOW TO
LIFT.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE NIAGARA RIVER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED
WAVE ACTION WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND...THOUGH
IT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...TMA

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
220 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF KYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD ENSURE
COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM GIVEN ONLY
MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A DECENT DEGREE
OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE HERE...
OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER-LIKE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELUSIVE...BY MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING MONDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...WITH THE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS SETUP WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS...BUT THIS TIME WITHOUT WIDE DIURNAL SWINGS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY. WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES TUES
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM...A WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT PATTERNS...WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN A SHOWERY REGIME. TOWARD
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST PUNCH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT IN
QUITE SOME TIME...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE
OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. SOME
AREAS OF SURFACE WIND GUST OF 20 KNOT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 14Z-17Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 201840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 201833
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
REGION WITHIN CAA. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...AS VORTICITY SPIRALING AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTN. SKIES HAVE BECOME SCT ACROSS THE HUDSON
AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS...SO HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS ALLOWED WESTERLY WINDS TO BE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED VALLEY
AREAS.


SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201808
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION OFF AND
ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...CLEARING
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EST FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST TIMING ON DEPARTING PCPN ACROSS VT...AND
WRAP-AROUND PCPN PUSHING INTO NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS
INDICATING BROAD OCCLUDED CYCLONE NORTH OF KYOW LATE THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO TRUDGE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. PRIMARY DEEP MOISTURE AND
ASSOC HEAVIER PCPN CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH SCT TO OCCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO NRN
PORTIONS OF VT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WANE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NY
WITH DEFORMATION/WRAP-AROUND FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE
ADJUSTED 3-HRLY POPS SLIGHTLY BASED OFF LATEST SREF SOLN WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION. WITH BROAD CAA
PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS WILL RECOVER
ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THIS MORNINGS MILD MIN TEMPS...BUT STILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMS. OTHER THAN CHGS NOTED
ABOVE...REST OF INHERITED FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO PROVINCE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RAIN SHIELD ACROSS VERMONT THIS MORNING BEFORE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST
EAST OF UPPER LOW...WHICH DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER
TODAY. THUS LOOKING AT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE LOWERING TO ABOUT 2000
FEET AND THERE COULD BE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
     ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE BECOMES
LIMITED. THIS DESPITE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM
EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING TREND WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MORE SUN
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER-LIKE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELUSIVE...BY MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING MONDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...WITH THE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS SETUP WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS...BUT THIS TIME WITHOUT WIDE DIURNAL SWINGS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY. WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES TUES
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM...A WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT PATTERNS...WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN A SHOWERY REGIME. TOWARD
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST PUNCH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT IN
QUITE SOME TIME...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE
OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z SATURDAY.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 14Z SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF
SURFACE WIND GUST OF 20 KNOT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BECOME VFR ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN 14Z-17Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 201744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 952 AM EST...OCCLUDED FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE CWA...CURRENTLY
CROSSING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITHIN CAA. WITH THE FORCING EAST OF THE
AREA...KENX RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO PRECIP LEFT ACROSS
THE REGION...SO WILL DROP POPS IN ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...AS VORTICITY
SPIRALING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTN. SKIES
HAVE BECOME SCT ACROSS THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS...SO
HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS ALLOWED
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE GUSTY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KOKX 201743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS AFTERNOON ARE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND ALONG SECONDARY FRONTAL
FEATURE MOVING SE TOWARD SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
ATTM...THEN TEMPERATURE TREND AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. ANY
VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWN BY RADAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FEATURE
ARE MORE LIKELY CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND NOT ACTUAL PRECIP... AND AS
IT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SHIFT MORE NW AND GUST UP
TO 25 MPH...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WINDS OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WEST 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL SEE A SLIGHT TREND DOWNWARD OF AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...WILL STILL STAY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE OPEN...SLOWER AND SUPPRESSED
COASTAL LOW SOLUTION FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...WITH
GOOD EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN STILL
APPEARS LIKELY FROM LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...POSSIBLY INTO MON
NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST DETAILS ARE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY RE
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48. AS A
RESULT HAVE SIDED WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LATER IN THE WEEK VIA ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY
FOLLOWING FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DO
EXPECT AN OCNL GUST REPORT INTO THE LOWER 20S UNTIL 22Z. SUSTAINED
EXPECTED ABOVE 10 KT MOST OF THE TIME, THOUGH COULD DIMINISH BRIEFLY
BELOW 10 KT. DIRECTION PRIMARILY TO THE LEFT OF 300 (310 MAG).

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     20/18Z 28015KT
     20/19Z 28014G22KT
     20/20Z 29013KT
     20/21Z 29012G20KT
     20/22Z 29011KT
     20/23Z 30009KT
     21/00Z 30008KT
     21/01Z 30007KT
     21/02Z 30007KT
     21/03Z 30007KT

KJFK...AN OCNL GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S UNTIL 23Z.

KLGA...AN OCNL GUST INTO THE LOWER 20S UNTIL 22Z.

KTEB...AN OCNL GUST UP TO 20KTS UNTIL 22Z.

KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

KGON...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT: VFR.
SAT: VFR.
SUN: VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON: SUB-VFR.
TUE...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED MAINLY TO BOOST SEAS VIA COMBO OF SE SWELL AND W FLOW
10-20 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...WHICH WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN BOTH PREV FORECAST AND WAVEWATCH ON THE OUTER
WATERS. THIS NECESSITATED EXTENSION OF SCAHS INTO THIS EVENING E
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
GUSTS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY COME BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT ON ALL THE
WATERS...AND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY EVEN APPROACH GALE FORCE.
SMALL CRAFT WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WEAK COASTAL LOW AND THE
STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SWELLS OVER 5 FT COULD
LINGER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY PLACES PICKED UP AT LEAST 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS DUMPING OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS OVER FAR WESTERN
ORANGE COUNTY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW CT AND LONG ISLAND.

QPF OVER 1/2 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A STORM SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201743
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1243 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
SETTLING BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE AT 1034 AM... REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE IN A POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY AS NOTED ON
THE KBUF 88D. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAK/UNORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO
AS H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C. WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE REGION...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH WHILE MAINTAINING A
MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES
DUE TO CURRENT AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY AND HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
PA ZONES. OVERALL...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AS INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 249AM...
OCCLUDED FNT PUSHING INTO WRN SXNS EARLY THIS MRNG AND IS LOCATED
FROM WAYNE CNTY SOUTH TO NR ELMIRA AND THRU CNTRL PA. RAIN SHIELD
HAS MOVED INTO AREAS EAST OF I-81 AT THIS POINT AND RIDES NORTH
AND EAST THRU THE AREA. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO STILL NOTED IN
NEPA/WRN CATSKILLS WITH WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS ACRS THE FAR EAST. EXPECT CHCS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ROTATING UP THRU WRN NY INTO SRN ONTARIO IN
ASSOC WITH VORT MAX ROTATING ARND PARENT UL LOW. BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL RMN OFF TO THE NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
DRG THE MRNG ACRS UPSTATE NY AS UL TROF MVS ACRS THE CWA. DRYING
ALOFT WILL PREVENT MUCH FM DVLPNG THIS AFTN THEREFORE WILL ONLY HV
SLGT TO LOCHC POPS THRU 15Z THEN VRY LITTLE ELSE AFT THIS TIME. MAY
SEE A SHOWER OR TWO FM ABOUT SYR-BOONVILLE IF LK EFFECT CLDS
GENERATE SOME SPRITZES...BUT H8 TEMPS NOT LOW ENUF TO GENERATE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BHND THIS SYSTEM.

CLDS GRADUALLY MIX OUT FM THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
CLD AIR IS PRESENT BHND THIS FNT BUT LL TEMPS ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAYS VALUES. H9 TEMPS RANGING FM +4C TO +6C WUD STILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S CONSISTENT WITH WHAT LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS
INDICATE. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LKLY BE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SUN
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE FIRST. HWVR MOST OF THE FA WILL JUMP INTO
THE 50S AGAIN TODAY...COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SOME 5-10
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW TODAY WILL INCRS BY AFTN. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
TO NR 25 MPH THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UL LOW EXITS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LK EFFECT
SHOWERS ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL. RMNDR OF CWA WILL SEE
GRADUAL DCRS IN POPS THRU MIDNIGHT THEN LKLY ENDING ALL TOGETHER.
WHILE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACRS LK EFFECT REGIONS...H8
TEMPS ARE JUST NOT COLD ENUF TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN 40% CHCS FOR
SHOWERS TONIGHT.

PCPN CHCS DWINDLE ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER ACRS
THE FAR NORTH BUT EVEN THAT MIGHT BE PUSHING IT. ANOTHER WK WV WILL
APPCH FM THE NORTHWEST WITH MAIN EFFECT TO KEEP CLDS IN A LITTLE
LONGER ACRS THE WEST.

PROGRESS OF TROF BYND SATURDAY IN QUESTION AS THE GFS MVS IT THRU
QUICKLY SAT NGT AND NAM CLOSES IT OFF FM THE MAIN FLOW ONLY TO
RETROGRADE AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE IN THE PD.
EURO/GEM APPEAR TO BE THE COMPROMISE WITH CLOSING WK LOW OFF OVR WRN
PA/NY BFR OPENING UP AND EJECTING OUT LATE IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL
SIDE WITH THIS SOLN AS GEM HAS BEEN HARD TO BEAT LATELY. IN THE
GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS THIS SOLN HAS LITTLE BEARING ON FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE ONLY PURPOSE THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE IS TO KEEP MORE PCLDY CONDS OVR FA UNDER SFC HIPRES.

GEM/ECMWF STILL INDICATING COASTAL FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK...DVLPNG
OFF THE SE COAST SUN NGT AND RIDING UP OFF OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY
12Z MON PER GEM WITH EURO LAGGING BHND BY ABOUT 12 HRS. GFS HAS
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS MORE INLAND THAN OTHER TWO SOLNS. WILL MAKE VRY
FEW CHGS TO IMPENDING PCPN SUN NGT AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME
SORT OF MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO SRN CWA BY 12Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WIDE RANGE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAY 7 AND 8. THE ERN PACIFIC UL TROF
HOLDS BUT THE MODELS ARE UNCERTAINTY HOW STRONG AND WHERE ANY UL
TROF OR CUTOFF WILL BE IN LONG TERM. COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK IT
WILL BE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS.

FOR SUNDAY NGT TO MONDAY NGT A SFC LOW IN SE US MOVES NE UP THE
COAST. YESTERDAY MOST MODELS HAD THE PRECIP JUST ALONG THE COAST
WITH OUR CWA DRY. NOW THE MODELS HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA WET. FOR
TUESDAY POSSIBLY A DRY BREAK BEFORE A STRONGER SFC LOW AND UL TROF
MOVES IN WED. SOME MODELS KEEP THIS TROF OVER THE NE US THROUGH
THANKSGIVING INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD NW FLOW WILL MEAN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LWR LVL MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ARCS THE FA AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NWD ACRS ERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS RIDGES NEWD. CEILINGS ARE VFR AND
MODELS STILL SHOWING THAT THERE MAY BE SOME FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
LATE THIS AFTN WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN AND LOSS OF SUNSHINE HELPING
TO DISSIPATE STRATOCU. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO HINTING THAT
IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SHORT LIVED...WITH MORE MOISTURE AND LWR
CEILINGS BACK ACROSS THE ERN LAKES THAT WILL PUSH SEWD INTO THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNGT. HAVE BROUGHT CEILINGS BACK
DOWN INTO PREDOMINATE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
EXCEPTION AT AVP WHERE TEMPO WAS USED.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY...THEN
DECREASE TO 10 KTS OR LESS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING.


OUTLOOK...

SAT/SAT NGT...SOME MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE MORNING...ESP AT
RME/SYR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IN THE AFTN.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/MON NGT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...JML

000
FXUS61 KBUF 201650
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1150 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LINGERING
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN CICULATE BACK ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LIMITED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AND SUNNIER SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGHY TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MIXING OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. VSBY IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE A LARGE AREA OF
NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKIES OVER LK ONTARIO AND ACROSS A LARGE PORTINO
OF THE IAG FRONTIER AT 1630Z. THIS AREA OF PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THOUGH SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

MEANWHILE...THE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS FOUND TO THE
SOUTH OF BUFFALO EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS SINCE FALLEN APART. THE
DIURNAL MIXING OF THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR COUPLED WITH THE OLD LAKE
BAND DRIFTING OFF THE LAKE ITSELF HAS LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION. HAVE
CUT WAY BACK ON THE POPS FOR THE SRN TIER AS A RESULT.

VSBY/IR IMGAERY IS SHOWING THAT DEEPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC IS CIRCULATING IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THE REGIONS CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OROGRAPHICALY ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A BREEZE WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS AROUND 40 NEAR
THE LAKES AND MID TO UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGESTING
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLIMATOLOGY...AND GIVEN A LOW NOVEMBER
SUN ANGLE WOULD FAVOR A CLOUDIER FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CENTERED FROM THE LOWER
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
YIELD A SUNNIER DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTER LAKES WILL
SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. GFS IS
TAPPING INTO THE SHORT WAVE TO DEVELOP AN INLAND LOW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG A PHASED INVERTED TROUGH TO A LOW OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO. THE ECMWF CONCENTRATES THE ENERGY TO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND KEEPS THE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL REGION
BUT STILL BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL GO CLOSER TO
THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH PREFERS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE LIKELY POPS OFFERED BY GFS.

THE BIGGER QUESTION IS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A COLDER PERIOD WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW. A PACIFIC TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY WED
NIGHT...AND MAY PHASE WITH AN ARCTIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN AND TAP INTO COLDER AIR...ABOUT -6C TO -8C ON
THE GFS BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BRING THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR OVER
THE LAKES DURING THURSDAY WITH A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE SNOWS. ECMWF SHOWS A SMALLER BUBBLE
OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEFINED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT DOES BRING EVEN COLDER AIR IN FOR VERY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

THIS BEING SAID...WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WED NIGHT...THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS FALL DURING THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN IS LIMITED BY THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE
MODELS TO STICK TO ONE SOLUTION THROUGH THE FULL SEVEN DAYS...WHICH
HAS BEEN FLIPPING AND FLOPPING OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. WHILE SOME DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FROM KBUF/KIAG TO KROC THIS
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WRN
SOUTHERN TIER.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH LOWERING CIGS
EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AS A RESULT...MVFR CIGS OVER THE
WRN SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE EVENING
WILL EVNTUALLY INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF WRN NEW YORK.

WHILE MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON...THIS IS NOT EXPECETD TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT COMMERICLA TRAFFIC AT THE LARGER
(KBUF/KIAG/KROC) TAF SITES. THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR
PRIVATE/GENERAL AVIATION.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MORNING MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE NIAGARA RIVER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED
WAVE ACTION WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND...THOUGH
IT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...TMA

000
FXUS61 KOKX 201643
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1143 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE NOW OFF TO THE
EAST. MAIN ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS AFTERNOON ARE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND ALONG SECONDARY FRONTAL
FEATURE MOVING SE TOWARD SOUTHERN CT AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
ATTM...THEN TEMPERATURE TREND AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.
ANY VERY LIGHT RETURNS SHOWN BY RADAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS
FEATURE ARE MORE LIKELY CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND NOT ACTUAL PRECIP...
AND AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY SHIFT MORE NW AND
GUST UP TO 30 MPH...FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WINDS OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WEST 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL SEE A SLIGHT TREND DOWNWARD OF AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...WILL STILL STAY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE OPEN...SLOWER AND SUPPRESSED
COASTAL LOW SOLUTION FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...WITH
GOOD EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN STILL
APPEARS LIKELY FROM LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...POSSIBLY INTO MON
NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST DETAILS ARE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY RE
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48. AS A
RESULT HAVE SIDED WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LATER IN THE WEEK VIA ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY
FOLLOWING FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE ON SATURDAY...BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DO
EXPECT AN OCNL GUST REPORTED. SUSTAINED EXPECTED ABOVE 10 KT
MOST OF THE TIME, THOUGH COULD DIMINISH BRIEFLY BELOW 10 KT.
DIRECTION PRIMARILY TO THE LEFT OF 300 (310 MAG).

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     20/13Z 29012G18KT
     20/14Z 29012G17KT
     20/15Z 28012KT
     20/16Z 28012KT
     20/17Z 29012KT
     20/18Z 29013KT
     20/19Z 29013KT
     20/20Z 29012KT
     20/21Z 29012G19KT
     20/22Z 30011G17KT
     20/23Z 30009KT

KJFK...AN OCNL GUST TO THE UPPER TEENS.

KLGA...AN OCNL GUST TO THE UPPER TEENS.

KTEB...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KISP...RAPID VFR. OTHERWISE BY FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KGON...RAPID VFR. OTHERWISE BY FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT: VFR.
SAT: VFR.
SUN: VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON: SUB-VFR.
TUE...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED MAINLY TO BOOST SEAS VIA COMBO OF SE SWELL AND W FLOW
10-20 KT WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...WHICH WERE RUNNING A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN BOTH PREV FORECAST AND WAVEWATCH ON THE OUTER
WATERS. THIS NECESSITATED EXTENSION OF SCAHS INTO THIS EVENING E
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THEREAFTER...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
GUSTS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY COME BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT ON ALL THE
WATERS...AND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY EVEN APPROACH GALE FORCE.
SMALL CRAFT WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WEAK COASTAL LOW AND THE
STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SWELLS OVER 5 FT COULD
LINGER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MANY PLACES PICKED UP AT LEAST 1/2 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS DUMPING OVER AN INCH IN SPOTS OVER FAR WESTERN
ORANGE COUNTY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW CT AND LONG ISLAND.

QPF OVER 1/2 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A STORM SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201537 CCA
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1036 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
SETTLING BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE AT 1034 AM... REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE IN A POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY AS NOTED ON
THE KBUF 88D. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAK/UNORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO
AS H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0C. WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE REGION...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH WHILE MAINTAINING A
MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES
DUE TO CURRENT AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY AND HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
PA ZONES. OVERALL...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AS INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 249AM...
OCCLUDED FNT PUSHING INTO WRN SXNS EARLY THIS MRNG AND IS LOCATED
FROM WAYNE CNTY SOUTH TO NR ELMIRA AND THRU CNTRL PA. RAIN SHIELD
HAS MOVED INTO AREAS EAST OF I-81 AT THIS POINT AND RIDES NORTH
AND EAST THRU THE AREA. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO STILL NOTED IN
NEPA/WRN CATSKILLS WITH WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS ACRS THE FAR EAST. EXPECT CHCS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ROTATING UP THRU WRN NY INTO SRN ONTARIO IN
ASSOC WITH VORT MAX ROTATING ARND PARENT UL LOW. BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL RMN OFF TO THE NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
DRG THE MRNG ACRS UPSTATE NY AS UL TROF MVS ACRS THE CWA. DRYING
ALOFT WILL PREVENT MUCH FM DVLPNG THIS AFTN THEREFORE WILL ONLY HV
SLGT TO LOCHC POPS THRU 15Z THEN VRY LITTLE ELSE AFT THIS TIME. MAY
SEE A SHOWER OR TWO FM ABOUT SYR-BOONVILLE IF LK EFFECT CLDS
GENERATE SOME SPRITZES...BUT H8 TEMPS NOT LOW ENUF TO GENERATE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BHND THIS SYSTEM.

CLDS GRADUALLY MIX OUT FM THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
CLD AIR IS PRESENT BHND THIS FNT BUT LL TEMPS ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAYS VALUES. H9 TEMPS RANGING FM +4C TO +6C WUD STILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S CONSISTENT WITH WHAT LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS
INDICATE. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LKLY BE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SUN
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE FIRST. HWVR MOST OF THE FA WILL JUMP INTO
THE 50S AGAIN TODAY...COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SOME 5-10
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW TODAY WILL INCRS BY AFTN. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
TO NR 25 MPH THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UL LOW EXITS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LK EFFECT
SHOWERS ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL. RMNDR OF CWA WILL SEE
GRADUAL DCRS IN POPS THRU MIDNIGHT THEN LKLY ENDING ALL TOGETHER.
WHILE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACRS LK EFFECT REGIONS...H8
TEMPS ARE JUST NOT COLD ENUF TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN 40% CHCS FOR
SHOWERS TONIGHT.

PCPN CHCS DWINDLE ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER ACRS
THE FAR NORTH BUT EVEN THAT MIGHT BE PUSHING IT. ANOTHER WK WV WILL
APPCH FM THE NORTHWEST WITH MAIN EFFECT TO KEEP CLDS IN A LITTLE
LONGER ACRS THE WEST.

PROGRESS OF TROF BYND SATURDAY IN QUESTION AS THE GFS MVS IT THRU
QUICKLY SAT NGT AND NAM CLOSES IT OFF FM THE MAIN FLOW ONLY TO
RETROGRADE AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE IN THE PD.
EURO/GEM APPEAR TO BE THE COMPROMISE WITH CLOSING WK LOW OFF OVR WRN
PA/NY BFR OPENING UP AND EJECTING OUT LATE IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL
SIDE WITH THIS SOLN AS GEM HAS BEEN HARD TO BEAT LATELY. IN THE
GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS THIS SOLN HAS LITTLE BEARING ON FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE ONLY PURPOSE THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE IS TO KEEP MORE PCLDY CONDS OVR FA UNDER SFC HIPRES.

GEM/ECMWF STILL INDICATING COASTAL FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK...DVLPNG
OFF THE SE COAST SUN NGT AND RIDING UP OFF OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY
12Z MON PER GEM WITH EURO LAGGING BHND BY ABOUT 12 HRS. GFS HAS
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS MORE INLAND THAN OTHER TWO SOLNS. WILL MAKE VRY
FEW CHGS TO IMPENDING PCPN SUN NGT AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME
SORT OF MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO SRN CWA BY 12Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WIDE RANGE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAY 7 AND 8. THE ERN PACIFIC UL TROF
HOLDS BUT THE MODELS ARE UNCERTAINTY HOW STRONG AND WHERE ANY UL
TROF OR CUTOFF WILL BE IN LONG TERM. COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK IT
WILL BE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS.

FOR SUNDAY NGT TO MONDAY NGT A SFC LOW IN SE US MOVES NE UP THE
COAST. YESTERDAY MOST MODELS HAD THE PRECIP JUST ALONG THE COAST
WITH OUR CWA DRY. NOW THE MODELS HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA WET. FOR
TUESDAY POSSIBLY A DRY BREAK BEFORE A STRONGER SFC LOW AND UL TROF
MOVES IN WED. SOME MODELS KEEP THIS TROF OVER THE NE US THROUGH
THANKSGIVING INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD NW FLOW WILL MEAN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
CYCLONE ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD ONTARIO PROVINCE.
DRY AIR PUNCH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP, AND SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR ENCROACHING
ON NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY PUNCH COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING WINDS
ALOFT HAS ALLOWED AVP TO REACH VFR CEILINGS EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED, AND THE TERMINAL MAY ACTUALLY SCATTER OUT TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. AS THE DRY AIR WORKS NORTHEAST, WE BRING
TERMINAL CEILINGS INTO VFR TERRITORY OVER NY STATE BETWEEN MID
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY.


OUTLOOK...

SAT/SAT NGT...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS AT RME/SYR.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201534
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1034 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
SETTLING BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE AT 1034 AM... REGION CONTINUES TO RESIDE IN A POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS THIS MORNING FOLLOWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY AS NOTED ON
THE KBUF 88D. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAK/UNORGANIZED
LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO
AS H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 0C. WITH THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WELL EAST OF THE REGION...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH WHILE MAINTAINING A
MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES
DUE TO CURRENT AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF HEATING TODAY AND HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
PA ZONES. OVERALL...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AS INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 249AM...
OCCLUDED FNT PUSHING INTO WRN SXNS EARLY THIS MRNG AND IS LOCATED
FROM WAYNE CNTY SOUTH TO NR ELMIRA AND THRU CNTRL PA. RAIN SHIELD
HAS MOVED INTO AREAS EAST OF I-81 AT THIS POINT AND RIDES NORTH
AND EAST THRU THE AREA. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO STILL NOTED IN
NEPA/WRN CATSKILLS WITH WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS ACRS THE FAR EAST. EXPECT CHCS FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ROTATING UP THRU WRN NY INTO SRN ONTARIO IN
ASSOC WITH VORT MAX ROTATING ARND PARENT UL LOW. BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL RMN OFF TO THE NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
DRG THE MRNG ACRS UPSTATE NY AS UL TROF MVS ACRS THE CWA. DRYING
ALOFT WILL PREVENT MUCH FM DVLPNG THIS AFTN THEREFORE WILL ONLY HV
SLGT TO LOCHC POPS THRU 15Z THEN VRY LITTLE ELSE AFT THIS TIME. MAY
SEE A SHOWER OR TWO FM ABOUT SYR-BOONVILLE IF LK EFFECT CLDS
GENERATE SOME SPRITZES...BUT H8 TEMPS NOT LOW ENUF TO GENERATE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BHND THIS SYSTEM.

CLDS GRADUALLY MIX OUT FM THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
CLD AIR IS PRESENT BHND THIS FNT BUT LL TEMPS ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAYS VALUES. H9 TEMPS RANGING FM +4C TO +6C WUD STILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S CONSISTENT WITH WHAT LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS
INDICATE. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LKLY BE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SUN
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE FIRST. HWVR MOST OF THE FA WILL JUMP INTO
THE 50S AGAIN TODAY...COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SOME 5-10
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW TODAY WILL INCRS BY AFTN. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
TO NR 25 MPH THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UL LOW EXITS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LK EFFECT
SHOWERS ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL. RMNDR OF CWA WILL SEE
GRADUAL DCRS IN POPS THRU MIDNIGHT THEN LKLY ENDING ALL TOGETHER.
WHILE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACRS LK EFFECT REGIONS...H8
TEMPS ARE JUST NOT COLD ENUF TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN 40% CHCS FOR
SHOWERS TONIGHT.

PCPN CHCS DWINDLE ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER ACRS
THE FAR NORTH BUT EVEN THAT MIGHT BE PUSHING IT. ANOTHER WK WV WILL
APPCH FM THE NORTHWEST WITH MAIN EFFECT TO KEEP CLDS IN A LITTLE
LONGER ACRS THE WEST.

PROGRESS OF TROF BYND SATURDAY IN QUESTION AS THE GFS MVS IT THRU
QUICKLY SAT NGT AND NAM CLOSES IT OFF FM THE MAIN FLOW ONLY TO
RETROGRADE AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE IN THE PD.
EURO/GEM APPEAR TO BE THE COMPROMISE WITH CLOSING WK LOW OFF OVR WRN
PA/NY BFR OPENING UP AND EJECTING OUT LATE IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL
SIDE WITH THIS SOLN AS GEM HAS BEEN HARD TO BEAT LATELY. IN THE
GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS THIS SOLN HAS LITTLE BEARING ON FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE ONLY PURPOSE THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE IS TO KEEP MORE PCLDY CONDS OVR FA UNDER SFC HIPRES.

GEM/ECMWF STILL INDICATING COASTAL FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK...DVLPNG
OFF THE SE COAST SUN NGT AND RIDING UP OFF OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY
12Z MON PER GEM WITH EURO LAGGING BHND BY ABOUT 12 HRS. GFS HAS
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS MORE INLAND THAN OTHER TWO SOLNS. WILL MAKE VRY
FEW CHGS TO IMPENDING PCPN SUN NGT AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME
SORT OF MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO SRN CWA BY 12Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WIDE RANGE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAY 7 AND 8. THE ERN PACIFIC UL TROF
HOLDS BUT THE MODELS ARE UNCERTAINTY HOW STRONG AND WHERE ANY UL
TROF OR CUTOFF WILL BE IN LONG TERM. COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK IT
WILL BE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS.

FOR SUNDAY NGT TO MONDAY NGT A SFC LOW IN SE US MOVES NE UP THE
COAST. YESTERDAY MOST MODELS HAD THE PRECIP JUST ALONG THE COAST
WITH OUR CWA DRY. NOW THE MODELS HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA WET. FOR
TUESDAY POSSIBLY A DRY BREAK BEFORE A STRONGER SFC LOW AND UL TROF
MOVES IN WED. SOME MODELS KEEP THIS TROF OVER THE NE US THROUGH
THANKSGIVING INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD NW FLOW WILL MEAN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
CYCLONE ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD ONTARIO PROVINCE.
DRY AIR PUNCH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP, AND SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR ENCROACHING
ON NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY PUNCH COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING WINDS
ALOFT HAS ALLOWED AVP TO REACH VFR CEILINGS EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED, AND THE TERMINAL MAY ACTUALLY SCATTER OUT TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. AS THE DRY AIR WORKS NORTHEAST, WE BRING
TERMINAL CEILINGS INTO VFR TERRITORY OVER NY STATE BETWEEN MID
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY.


OUTLOOK...

SAT/SAT NGT...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS AT RME/SYR.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201523
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1023 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION OFF AND
ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...CLEARING
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1023 AM EST FRIDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST TIMING ON DEPARTING PCPN ACROSS VT...AND
WRAP-AROUND PCPN PUSHING INTO NRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST ANALYSIS
INDICATING BROAD OCCLUDED CYCLONE NORTH OF KYOW LATE THIS MORNING
CONTINUING TO TRUDGE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. PRIMARY DEEP MOISTURE AND
ASSOC HEAVIER PCPN CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...WITH SCT TO OCCNLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO NRN
PORTIONS OF VT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WANE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS ACROSS NRN NY
WITH DEFORMATION/WRAP-AROUND FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER SYSTEM. HAVE
ADJUSTED 3-HRLY POPS SLIGHTLY BASED OFF LATEST SREF SOLN WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION. WITH BROAD CAA
PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW...TEMPS WILL RECOVER
ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THIS MORNINGS MILD MIN TEMPS...BUT STILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMS. OTHER THAN CHGS NOTED
ABOVE...REST OF INHERITED FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ATTM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.
THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO PROVINCE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RAIN SHIELD ACROSS VERMONT THIS MORNING BEFORE
DRY SLOT MOVES IN. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST
EAST OF UPPER LOW...WHICH DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER
TODAY. THUS LOOKING AT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE LOWERING TO ABOUT 2000
FEET AND THERE COULD BE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE BECOMES
LIMITED. THIS DESPITE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. THE CLOUDS
AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM
EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING TREND WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MORE SUN
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER-LIKE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELUSIVE...BY MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING MONDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...WITH THE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS SETUP WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS...BUT THIS TIME WITHOUT WIDE DIURNAL SWINGS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY. WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES TUES
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM...A WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT PATTERNS...WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN A SHOWERY REGIME. TOWARD
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST PUNCH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT IN
QUITE SOME TIME...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE
OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CEILING WITH MODERATE RAIN ACROSS VT. GENERALLY IFR AND MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MTNS OBSCURED IN CLDS. RAIN
HAS TAPERED TO SHOWERS ACROSS NY...BUT CIG AND VIS REMAIN MVFR AND
DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LLWS STILL
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION... BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 14Z AS LLJ
SHIFTS EAST. VIS AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES AFTER 17S...EXCEPT KSLK AS WSW FLOW WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER
00Z...AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT KMPV...KMSS...KSLK. SOUTH
TO SW AND INCR TO 12-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON...WILL DIMINISH AFTER TO
LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 02Z

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SAT...MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
18Z SAT-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
12Z MON-12Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
12Z TUE-00Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 201453
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 952 AM EST...OCCLUDED FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE CWA...CURRENTLY
CROSSING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITHIN CAA. WITH THE FORCING EAST OF THE
AREA...KENX RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO PRECIP LEFT ACROSS
THE REGION...SO WILL DROP POPS IN ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...AS VORTICITY
SPIRALING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTN. SKIES
HAVE BECOME SCT ACROSS THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS...SO
HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS ALLOWED
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE GUSTY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY.

KGFL...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
THEN...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z/SAT DUE TO GROUND FOG. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...THEN END.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 KT.

KALB...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THEN END. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE WEST...AND
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST AT 10-15 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

KPOU...INITIALLY VFR TO MVFR...MAINLY FOR CIGS...THEN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS FOR RAIN...WITH FRONT NOW EAST OF
KPOU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...CHC MVFR -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 201302
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
802 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION OFF AND
ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...CLEARING
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
PROVINCE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS VERMONT THIS MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST EAST OF UPPER
LOW...WHICH DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER TODAY. THUS
LOOKING AT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE LOWERING TO ABOUT 2000
FEET AND THERE COULD BE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VERTICAL DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. THIS DESPITE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM
EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING TREND WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MORE SUN
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER-LIKE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELUSIVE...BY MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING MONDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...WITH THE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS SETUP WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS...BUT THIS TIME WITHOUT WIDE DIURNAL SWINGS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY. WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES TUES
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM...A WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT PATTERNS...WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN A SHOWERY REGIME. TOWARD
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST PUNCH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT IN
QUITE SOME TIME...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE
OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...OCCLUDED BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CEILING WITH MODERATE RAIN ACROSS VT. GENERALLY IFR AND MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MTNS OBSCURED IN CLDS. RAIN
HAS TAPERED TO SHOWERS ACROSS NY...BUT CIG AND VIS REMAIN MVFR AND
DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LLWS STILL
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION... BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 14Z AS LLJ
SHIFTS EAST. VIS AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES AFTER 17S...EXCEPT KSLK AS WSW FLOW WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER
00Z...AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT KMPV...KMSS...KSLK. SOUTH
TO SW AND INCR TO 12-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON...WILL DIMINISH AFTER TO
LESS THAN 10KT AFTER 02Z

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SAT...MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
18Z SAT-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
12Z MON-12Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
12Z TUE-00Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 201251
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
751 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE UP
FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY WITH THE FRONT
THROUGH NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY.
UPDATED TO REMOVE SHOWERS FROM THE WESTERN ZONES...AND ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR FRONTAL POSITION. CLEARING IS
OCCURRING A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY TOO.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL SEE A SLIGHT TREND DOWNWARD OF AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...WILL STILL STAY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE OPEN...SLOWER AND SUPPRESSED
COASTAL LOW SOLUTION FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...WITH
GOOD EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN STILL
APPEARS LIKELY FROM LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...POSSIBLY INTO MON
NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST DETAILS ARE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY RE
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48. AS A
RESULT HAVE SIDED WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LATER IN THE WEEK VIA ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY
FOLLOWING FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE ON SATURDAY...BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...DO NOT EXPECT GUSTS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DO EXPECT AN OCNL
GUST REPORTED. SUSTAINED EXPECTED ABOVE 10 KT MOST OF THE TIME, THOUGH COULD
DIMINISH BRIEFLY BELOW 10 KT. DIRECTION PRIMARILY TO THE LEFT OF 300 (310 MAG).

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     20/13Z 29012G18KT
     20/14Z 29012G17KT
     20/15Z 28012KT
     20/16Z 28012KT
     20/17Z 29012KT
     20/18Z 29013KT
     20/19Z 29013KT
     20/20Z 29012KT
     20/21Z 29012G19KT
     20/22Z 30011G17KT
     20/23Z 30009KT

KJFK...AN OCNL GUST TO THE UPPER TEENS.

KLGA...AN OCNL GUST TO THE UPPER TEENS.

KTEB...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KISP...RAPID VFR. OTHERWISE BY FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

KGON...RAPID VFR. OTHERWISE BY FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED
AMENDMENTS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT: VFR.
SAT: VFR.
SUN: VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON: SUB-VFR.
TUE...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATED FOR WEATHER...ENDING MORE QUICKLY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST AT TIMES TO JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS OF 25 KT...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION. WINDS AND GUSTS THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE FORECAST WATERS. WILL MENTION
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND
WITH A COMPONENT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. SO...WILL KEEP THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TODAY. SEAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AS THE SOUTHEAST SWELL REMAINS. SEAS MAY STAY UP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
GUSTS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY COME BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT ON ALL THE
WATERS...AND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY EVEN APPROACH GALE FORCE.
SMALL CRAFT WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WEAK COASTAL LOW AND THE
STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SWELLS OVER 5 FT COULD
LINGER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND RAINFALL ACTIVITY TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE REMAINDER OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLATED TO
IMPACT THE TRI- STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBILITIES
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KOKX 201150
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
650 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
THIS MORNING.  CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES. SHOWERS EXIT THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING WITH SKIES
TURNING PARTLY CLOUDY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL SEE A SLIGHT TREND DOWNWARD OF AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...WILL STILL STAY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE OPEN...SLOWER AND SUPPRESSED
COASTAL LOW SOLUTION FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...WITH
GOOD EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN STILL
APPEARS LIKELY FROM LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...POSSIBLY INTO MON
NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST DETAILS ARE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY RE
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48. AS A
RESULT HAVE SIDED WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LATER IN THE WEEK VIA ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY
FOLLOWING FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE ON SATURDAY...BUT DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE 15-18KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
UNTIL 14Z.

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
     20/12Z 27014G23KT
     20/13Z 27014G22KT
     20/14Z 28013G21KT
     20/15Z 28013G21KT
     20/16Z 29014G21KT
     20/17Z 29013G20KT
     20/18Z 29013G20KT
     20/19Z 29013G20KT
     20/20Z 29012G19KT
     20/21Z 29012G19KT
     20/22Z 30011G17KT
     20/23Z 30009KT

KJFK...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE 15-18KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
UNTIL 14Z.

KLGA...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE 15-18KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
UNTIL 14Z.

KTEB...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE 13-16KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
UNTIL 14Z.

KHPN...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE 13-16KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
UNTIL 14Z.

KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED

KISP...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-13Z. SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY BE 14-17KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNTIL 14Z.

KBDR...SUSTAINED WINDS MAY BE 13-16KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
UNTIL 14Z.

KGON...LIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT: VFR.
SAT: VFR.
SUN: VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON: SUB-VFR.
TUE...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST AT TIMES TO JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
OF 25 KT...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS AND GUSTS THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE FORECAST WATERS. WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND WITH A
COMPONENT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. SO...WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TODAY. SEAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 5 FEET ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE
SOUTHEAST SWELL REMAINS. SEAS MAY STAY UP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
GUSTS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY COME BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT ON ALL THE
WATERS...AND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY EVEN APPROACH GALE FORCE.
SMALL CRAFT WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WEAK COASTAL LOW AND THE
STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SWELLS OVER 5 FT COULD
LINGER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND RAINFALL ACTIVITY TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE REMAINDER OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLATED TO
IMPACT THE TRI- STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBILITIES
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LJM
NEAR TERM...LJM
SHORT TERM...LJM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...LJM

000
FXUS61 KALY 201142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT AT 09Z JUST EAST OF KRME AND KMSV AND MOVING
QUICKLY E. HAVE ONLY LEFT THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND CAT POPS IN
UNTIL 12Z AS BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD ALREADY INTO MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER IN EASTERN
NY BY 12Z AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 14Z. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED AND THEY HAVE OCCURRED WITH KDDH
REPORTING 35 KTS AT 0715Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT AND IN AREAS WHERE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CHANNELED. EVEN AFTER FROPA SOME GUSTS TO 30
OR 35 MPH POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND IN EAST-WEST VALLEYS SUCH AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ONCE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...BULK OF FA WILL BE
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A LARGE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE ONLY AREA WHERE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
BEING ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY VORT LOBE.

TEMPS NEVER DROPPED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ROSE IN SOME AREAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WOULD
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
THUS HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S NEAR KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY.

KGFL...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
THEN...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z/SAT DUE TO GROUND FOG. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...THEN END.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 KT.

KALB...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THEN END. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE WEST...AND
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST AT 10-15 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

KPOU...INITIALLY VFR TO MVFR...MAINLY FOR CIGS...THEN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS FOR RAIN...WITH FRONT NOW EAST OF
KPOU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...CHC MVFR -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201141
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
SETTLING BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCCLUDED FNT PUSHING INTO WRN SXNS EARLY THIS MRNG AND IS LOCATED
FROM WAYNE CNTY SOUTH TO NR ELMIRA AND THRU CNTRL PA. RAIN SHIELD
HAS MOVED INTO AREAS EAST OF I-81 AT THIS POINT AND RIDES NORTH AND
EAST THRU THE AREA. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO STILL NOTED IN
NEPA/WRN CATSKILLS WITH WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HRS ACRS THE FAR EAST. EXPECT CHCS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS ROTATING UP THRU WRN NY INTO SRN ONTARIO IN
ASSOC WITH VORT MAX ROTATING ARND PARENT UL LOW. BULK OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL RMN OFF TO THE NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
DRG THE MRNG ACRS UPSTATE NY AS UL TROF MVS ACRS THE CWA. DRYING
ALOFT WILL PREVENT MUCH FM DVLPNG THIS AFTN THEREFORE WILL ONLY HV
SLGT TO LOCHC POPS THRU 15Z THEN VRY LITTLE ELSE AFT THIS TIME. MAY
SEE A SHOWER OR TWO FM ABOUT SYR-BOONVILLE IF LK EFFECT CLDS
GENERATE SOME SPRITZES...BUT H8 TEMPS NOT LOW ENUF TO GENERATE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BHND THIS SYSTEM.

CLDS GRADUALLY MIX OUT FM THE SOUTH THIS AFTN. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
CLD AIR IS PRESENT BHND THIS FNT BUT LL TEMPS ARE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAYS VALUES. H9 TEMPS RANGING FM +4C TO +6C WUD STILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S CONSISTENT WITH WHAT LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS
INDICATE. WARMEST TEMPS WILL LKLY BE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SUN
WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE FIRST. HWVR MOST OF THE FA WILL JUMP INTO
THE 50S AGAIN TODAY...COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL SOME 5-10
DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WINDS OUT OF THE S-SW TODAY WILL INCRS BY AFTN. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS
TO NR 25 MPH THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UL LOW EXITS INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LK EFFECT
SHOWERS ACRS THE MOHAWK VLY/SRN TUG HILL. RMNDR OF CWA WILL SEE
GRADUAL DCRS IN POPS THRU MIDNIGHT THEN LKLY ENDING ALL TOGETHER.
WHILE FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PCPN ACRS LK EFFECT REGIONS...H8
TEMPS ARE JUST NOT COLD ENUF TO JUSTIFY MUCH MORE THAN 40% CHCS FOR
SHOWERS TONIGHT.

PCPN CHCS DWINDLE ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER ACRS
THE FAR NORTH BUT EVEN THAT MIGHT BE PUSHING IT. ANOTHER WK WV WILL
APPCH FM THE NORTHWEST WITH MAIN EFFECT TO KEEP CLDS IN A LITTLE
LONGER ACRS THE WEST.

PROGRESS OF TROF BYND SATURDAY IN QUESTION AS THE GFS MVS IT THRU
QUICKLY SAT NGT AND NAM CLOSES IT OFF FM THE MAIN FLOW ONLY TO
RETROGRADE AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST LATE IN THE PD.
EURO/GEM APPEAR TO BE THE COMPROMISE WITH CLOSING WK LOW OFF OVR WRN
PA/NY BFR OPENING UP AND EJECTING OUT LATE IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL
SIDE WITH THIS SOLN AS GEM HAS BEEN HARD TO BEAT LATELY. IN THE
GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS THIS SOLN HAS LITTLE BEARING ON FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE ONLY PURPOSE THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE IS TO KEEP MORE PCLDY CONDS OVR FA UNDER SFC HIPRES.

GEM/ECMWF STILL INDICATING COASTAL FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK...DVLPNG
OFF THE SE COAST SUN NGT AND RIDING UP OFF OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY
12Z MON PER GEM WITH EURO LAGGING BHND BY ABOUT 12 HRS. GFS HAS
SIMILAR IDEA BUT IS MORE INLAND THAN OTHER TWO SOLNS. WILL MAKE VRY
FEW CHGS TO IMPENDING PCPN SUN NGT AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME
SORT OF MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO SRN CWA BY 12Z MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WIDE RANGE OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAY 7 AND 8. THE ERN PACIFIC UL TROF
HOLDS BUT THE MODELS ARE UNCERTAINTY HOW STRONG AND WHERE ANY UL
TROF OR CUTOFF WILL BE IN LONG TERM. COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK IT
WILL BE COOLER AND UNSETTLED WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS.

FOR SUNDAY NGT TO MONDAY NGT A SFC LOW IN SE US MOVES NE UP THE
COAST. YESTERDAY MOST MODELS HAD THE PRECIP JUST ALONG THE COAST
WITH OUR CWA DRY. NOW THE MODELS HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA WET. FOR
TUESDAY POSSIBLY A DRY BREAK BEFORE A STRONGER SFC LOW AND UL TROF
MOVES IN WED. SOME MODELS KEEP THIS TROF OVER THE NE US THROUGH
THANKSGIVING INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD NW FLOW WILL MEAN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
CYCLONE ROTATING NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE TOWARD ONTARIO PROVINCE.
DRY AIR PUNCH ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE IS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP, AND SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR ENCROACHING
ON NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE PRESENCE OF THE DRY PUNCH COMBINED WITH GOOD MIXING WINDS
ALOFT HAS ALLOWED AVP TO REACH VFR CEILINGS EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED, AND THE TERMINAL MAY ACTUALLY SCATTER OUT TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. AS THE DRY AIR WORKS NORTHEAST, WE BRING
TERMINAL CEILINGS INTO VFR TERRITORY OVER NY STATE BETWEEN MID
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL GUST CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES TODAY.


OUTLOOK...

SAT/SAT NGT...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS AT RME/SYR.
SUN/SUN NGT...VFR.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DJP

000
FXUS61 KBUF 201122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
622 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LIMITED
SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AND SUNNIER SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COMPLEX FORECAST EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A MULTITUDE OF
FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG
MOIST CONVEYOR WHICH PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NOW FOUND ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE AWAY FROM THE CWA AND WILL NO LONGER BE A CONCERN.
FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER COMPACT AREA OF RAIN IS LIFTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AT 11Z...AND WILL SWING THROUGH THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ASCENT WITHIN THE DPVA REGION AHEAD OF THE
MAIN MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. EXPECT THIS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 8 AM.

BY 18Z THE MID LEVEL CLOSED CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS TO BE CENTERED ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER JUST NORTHWEST OF
KMSS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW TO
SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF WESTERN NY
THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...DEEPER WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND SOME FORCING FROM SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING
CLOSED LOW WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE AT LINGERING SHOWERS. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MESOSCALE AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT RAIN OFF LAKE ERIE. A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IS
WELL ESTABLISHED AT 11Z EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY EXTENDING EAST INTO WYOMING AND
SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTIES. EXPECT A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED BAND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
FROM ABOUT 250 DEGREES. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -2C THIS
MORNING...YIELDING LAKE INDUCED CAPES OF AROUND 130J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF AROUND 10K FEET. PURE LAKE INDUCED
THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE
MOISTURE AND SOME RESIDUAL LIFT WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE RAIN TO TARGET THE SKI COUNTRY AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CHAUT/CATT
COUNTIES. WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BRUSH THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS... AND
EXPECT SOME INLAND PENETRATION INTO LIVINGSTON/ONTARIO COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST ALLEGANY COUNTY AS WELL.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY AND THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODERATE ALREADY...WHICH WILL
BRING A QUICK DEMISE TO THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN. WILL TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SKI COUNTRY...THEN END
ALTOGETHER THIS EVENING. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE.
DONT EXPECT MUCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH AIRMASS
ALREADY MODERATING TOO MUCH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE BY THE TIME THE FLOW
BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A BREEZE WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT...WITH LOWS AROUND 40 NEAR THE LAKES
AND MID TO UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WILL BE ON THEIR WAY OUT OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A DRY DAY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS SUGGESTING
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLIMATOLOGY...AND GIVEN A LOW NOVEMBER
SUN ANGLE WOULD FAVOR A CLOUDIER FORECAST. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME CENTERED FROM THE LOWER
LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
YIELD A SUNNIER DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTER LAKES WILL
SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND AS A SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. GFS IS
TAPPING INTO THE SHORT WAVE TO DEVELOP AN INLAND LOW ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO
THE GREAT LAKES ALONG A PHASED INVERTED TROUGH TO A LOW OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO. THE ECMWF CONCENTRATES THE ENERGY TO THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...AND KEEPS THE MOST OF THE PRECIP ALONG THE COASTAL REGION
BUT STILL BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION. WILL GO CLOSER TO
THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH PREFERS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MUCH
LOWER THAN THE LIKELY POPS OFFERED BY GFS.

THE BIGGER QUESTION IS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING A COLDER PERIOD WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW. A PACIFIC TROUGH OVER THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY WED
NIGHT...AND MAY PHASE WITH AN ARCTIC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN AND TAP INTO COLDER AIR...ABOUT -6C TO -8C ON
THE GFS BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN BRING THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR OVER
THE LAKES DURING THURSDAY WITH A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE SNOWS. ECMWF SHOWS A SMALLER BUBBLE
OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEFINED
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...BUT DOES BRING EVEN COLDER AIR IN FOR VERY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

THIS BEING SAID...WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND
WED NIGHT...THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS FALL DURING THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN IS LIMITED BY THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE
MODELS TO STICK TO ONE SOLUTION THROUGH THE FULL SEVEN DAYS...WHICH
HAS BEEN FLIPPING AND FLOPPING OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAIN CHALLENGE REVOLVING AROUND
TIMING AND EXTENT OF LOWER CIGS. ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS TODAY. TONIGHT BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST
PROFILES SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL OF MVFR CIGS...AND WILL INDICATE
A LOWERING TREND IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...
A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY. THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT MOIST LOW LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING AS
STEADY RAIN COMES TO AN END. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN
THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO COME BACK IN LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING AND LOWER
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WSW TODAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE...STRONGEST OVER AND JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MORNING MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE NIAGARA RIVER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BRING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED
WAVE ACTION WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE TOO FAR EAST TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WIND...THOUGH
IT STILL BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
         EST THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA

000
FXUS61 KALY 200943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT AT 09Z JUST EAST OF KRME AND KMSV AND MOVING
QUICKLY E. HAVE ONLY LEFT THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND CAT POPS IN
UNTIL 12Z AS BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD ALREADY INTO MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER IN EASTERN
NY BY 12Z AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 14Z. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED AND THEY HAVE OCCURRED WITH KDDH
REPORTING 35 KTS AT 0715Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT AND IN AREAS WHERE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CHANNELED. EVEN AFTER FROPA SOME GUSTS TO 30
OR 35 MPH POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND IN EAST-WEST VALLEYS SUCH AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ONCE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...BULK OF FA WILL BE
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A LARGE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE ONLY AREA WHERE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
BEING ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY VORT LOBE.

TEMPS NEVER DROPPED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ROSE IN SOME AREAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WOULD
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
THUS HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S NEAR KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY.

KGFL...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 08Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACCOMPANYING HEAVIER RAIN
AFTER 08Z. ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SW AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT DURING FRI MORNING...PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH
12Z...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SE...WHILE WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SSE AT 35-40 KT.

KALB...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 08Z...WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR POSSIBLE...ESP FOR VSBYS. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IFR SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...WITH VFR
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN...WITH
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST PERIOD OF RAIN BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT DUE TO OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE INCLUDED CB APPENDAGE TO CLOUDS...AND NO MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AFTER
11Z...AND END AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
5-10 KT...BEFORE BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME WEST...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH 12Z...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT FROM THE SE...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE
SSE AT 35-40 KT.

KPOU...TRICKY CALL FOR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS CONDITIONS
TO THE S/E OF KPOU ARE IFR TO LIFR...WHILE KPOU REMAINS MVFR. THIS
MAY BE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OF SE WINDS FROM NEARBY TACONIC RIDGE. WE
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...THEN INDICATED A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 11Z WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT AND POTENTIAL HEAVIER
RAINFALL. THEREAFTER...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN
VFR BY MID MORNING. AS FOR RAIN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...WITH A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHOWERS BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z-11Z. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THIS TIME...AND HAVE
INDICATED A CB APPENDAGE TO CLOUD GROUP DUE TO THIS. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 11Z...AND END BY 13Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 8-12 KT THROUGH 11Z...THEN
SHIFT INTO THE W AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH 12Z...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SE...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE SSE AT 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT-SUN NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...CHC MVFR -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 200933
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION OFF AND
ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER...CLEARING
SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN AHEAD OF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
PROVINCE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN RAIN SHIELD
ACROSS VERMONT THIS MORNING BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST EAST OF UPPER
LOW...WHICH DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATER TODAY. THUS
LOOKING AT SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SNOW LEVEL WILL BE LOWERING TO ABOUT 2000
FEET AND THERE COULD BE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS VERTICAL DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED. THIS DESPITE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM
EST FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
BECOMES ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRYING TREND WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MORE SUN
IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 322 AM EST FRIDAY...WINTER-LIKE WEATHER HAS BEEN
ELUSIVE...BY MAY BRUSH THE NORTH COUNTRY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

BEGINNING MONDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE...WITH THE RIDGE
SLIDING EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WITH THIS SETUP WE WILL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST...AND CONTINUE OUR TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS...BUT THIS TIME WITHOUT WIDE DIURNAL SWINGS THANKS TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN SHOWERS
BEGINNING MONDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY. WITH THE TAIL END OF
THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY MONDAY...THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...AND
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS WILL LIKELY
BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES TUES
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER SYSTEM...A WEAKENING
FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES...MOVES IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH...AT LEAST RELATIVE TO RECENT PATTERNS...WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING US IN A SHOWERY REGIME. TOWARD
THURSDAY WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST PUNCH OF COOLER AIR ALOFT IN
QUITE SOME TIME...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT COULD BE
OUR FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
RAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NY AND IS
APPROACHING VT. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-08Z. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CIGS
MOST TAF SITES 08Z-14Z AS OCCLUDED BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY IFR IN MODERATE
RAIN/BR. ALSO LLWS 06Z-12Z ACROSS NRN NY AND 06Z-14Z OVER VT AS
LLJ OF 30-40 KTS MOVES OVER THE REGION. IMPROVING CONDITIONS 17Z-
02Z FRIDAY AS FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  MVFR CIGS CONTINUE
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHWRS AT KSLK/KMPV...WHILE REST OF
SITES BECOME VFR. BUT THIS WILL BE JUST A BREAK... AS ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND -RA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z...AND CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT KMPV...KMSS...KSLK. SOUTH WINDS 10 KTS EARLY
FRIDAY WILL BECOME SW AND INCR TO 12-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
00Z SAT-18Z SAT...MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS.
18Z SAT-12Z MON...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
12Z MON-12Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
12Z TUE-00Z WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 200911
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
THIS MORNING.  CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN PA DOWN TO THE DELMARVA AREA.  WHILE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...INDICATIONS ARE THAT
MOST OF THE /MARGINAL/ INSTABILITY LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE
DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO HAVE COMPLETELY EXITED THE FORECAST
AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL SEE A SLIGHT TREND DOWNWARD OF AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...WILL STILL STAY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  LOWS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE OPEN...SLOWER AND SUPPRESSED
COASTAL LOW SOLUTION FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...WITH
GOOD EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN STILL
APPEARS LIKELY FROM LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...POSSIBLY INTO MON
NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST DETAILS ARE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY RE
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48. AS A
RESULT HAVE SIDED WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LATER IN THE WEEK VIA ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY
FOLLOWING FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT CROSSING KSWF AS OF RIGHT AROUND 09Z. EXPECTING IT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CITY TERMINALS IN THE 10Z-11Z TIME FRAME. HAVE ADDED
CB ATTACHMENTS FOR SCT TSTMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. ALSO ADDED LLWS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO TO SOME OF
THE TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND TDWR VAD WIND
PROFILES. SW WINDS NEAR 35 KT EXIST AT AROUND 2KFT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS...CIGS AND WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT: VFR.
SAT: VFR.
SUN: VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON: SUB-VFR.
TUE...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST AT TIMES TO JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
OF 25 KT...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS AND GUSTS THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE FORECAST WATERS. WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND WITH A
COMPONENT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. SO...WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TODAY. SEAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 5 FEET ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE
SOUTHEAST SWELL REMAINS. SEAS MAY STAY UP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
GUSTS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY COME BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT ON ALL THE
WATERS...AND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY EVEN APPROACH GALE FORCE.
SMALL CRAFT WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WEAK COASTAL LOW AND THE
STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SWELLS OVER 5 FT COULD
LINGER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND RAINFALL ACTIVITY TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE REMAINDER OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLATED TO
IMPACT THE TRI- STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBILITIES
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LJM
NEAR TERM...LJM
SHORT TERM...LJM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...LJM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 200857
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BUT WILL QUICKLY TAPER
OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL MOVE UP FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
THIS MORNING.  CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN PA DOWN TO THE DELMARVA AREA.  WHILE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...INDICATIONS ARE THAT
MOST OF THE /MARGINAL/ INSTABILITY LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...SO CONTINUED TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THE
DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION TO HAVE COMPLETELY EXITED THE FORECAST
AREA BY TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING BACK OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
WILL SEE A SLIGHT TREND DOWNWARD OF AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...WILL STILL STAY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  LOWS WILL REMAIN CONSISTENTLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE OPEN...SLOWER AND SUPPRESSED
COASTAL LOW SOLUTION FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...WITH
GOOD EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN STILL
APPEARS LIKELY FROM LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...POSSIBLY INTO MON
NIGHT-TUE.

FORECAST DETAILS ARE SHAKY THEREAFTER...WITH UNCERTAINTY RE
PROGRESSION OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FEATURES INTO THE LOWER 48. AS A
RESULT HAVE SIDED WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LATER IN THE WEEK VIA ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM QUICKLY
FOLLOWING FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AND AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM 10-12Z
WESTERN TERMINALS AND 12-14Z EASTERN TERMINALS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WITH MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT BY AN
HOUR OR TWO...AND DURING THIS SHORT PERIOD BEFORE FROPA...A
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN VSBYS/CIGS...HOWEVER SUB-VFR IS LIKELY UNTIL FROPA. WIND SHIFT
MAY OCCUR AN HOUR BEFORE INDICATED IN TAFS...AND GUSTS MAY NOT BE
AS FREQUENT AS INDICATED IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRI NIGHT: VFR.
SAT: VFR.
SUN: VFR.
SUN NIGHT-MON: SUB-VFR.
TUE...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST AT TIMES TO JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
OF 25 KT...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST COLD
ADVECTION. WINDS AND GUSTS THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD THE FORECAST WATERS. WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ON THE OCEAN
REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...AND WITH A
COMPONENT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. SO...WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT FOR
SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TODAY. SEAS MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE
BELOW 5 FEET ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE
SOUTHEAST SWELL REMAINS. SEAS MAY STAY UP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
GUSTS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY COME BACK UP TO SMALL CRAFT ON ALL THE
WATERS...AND GUSTS ON THE OCEAN MAY EVEN APPROACH GALE FORCE.
SMALL CRAFT WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WEAK COASTAL LOW AND THE
STRONG HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SWELLS OVER 5 FT COULD
LINGER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECT CURRENT SHOWER AND RAINFALL ACTIVITY TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE REMAINDER OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY SLATED TO
IMPACT THE TRI- STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBILITIES
CONTINUED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LJM
NEAR TERM...LJM
SHORT TERM...LJM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MT
HYDROLOGY...LJM