[top]
000
FXUS64 KTSA 230515
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1115 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...HOWEVER AT TIMES MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 09Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. AFTER
02-03Z THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE AR TAF
SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILES INDICATE THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. LIGHT WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK...ESPECIALLY SERN OK...TO
DROP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND THEY ARE NEAR FORECASTED VALUES AT
THIS TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO FALL BEFORE
CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS...MAY
GO ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW FORECASTED VALUES SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND SKY COVER GRIDS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...23
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOUN 230442
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1042 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SUN EVENING WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS IN SW OK AT KLAW AND MVFR IN CENTRAL OK AT KOKC
AND KOUN. EXPECT THE FOG AND LOCAL IFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER... DRIER CONDITIONS IN NW OK... BEHIND
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA ON SUNDAY...
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL IN THAT AREA. ANY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THAT DO FORM OVERNIGHT SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE... A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW OK LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON... AND THROUGH REMAINING TERMINALS BY 06Z... WILL USHER
IN BRISK NW WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...
A FEW AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST /KLAW AND KAXS
CURRENTLY/ WITH VSBYS 1 TO 2SM ALTHOUGH HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT
YET. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL RH CLIMBING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PACKAGE THIS
EVENING. MAIN MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST IS EVENING CLOUD COVER
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA... ALTHOUGH
DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON
SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... THE
LINGERING PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 1 KFT AGL... WITH
AREAS OF FOG AOB 3 MI... LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW OK INTO
N-TX. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NW OK TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CONVERGENCE ZONES AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONT ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT
STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...FROM AROUND SPS/LAW/DUC NORTHWARD TO JUST
WEST OF OKC. STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA NEAR AND NORTH OF WWR. STILL THINK THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SAME ZONE WILL BE UP FOR MORE
STRATUS AND/OR DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
RELATIVE MOIST AXIS DOESN`T MOVE MUCH AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
WEAK TONIGHT...SO ALMOST A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING POSSIBLE. WE WILL
MENTION DENSE FOG WILL WE THINK CHANCES ARE HIGHEST...AND EVENING
SHIFT CAN MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT PROGD TO PASS THROUGH REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP ERODE THE PERSISTENT MOIST
AXIS THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH-CENTRAL DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY...BUT REGION WIDE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A COOLER AND BREEZY DAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR STILL LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. STILL THINK AIR WILL BE COOLER THAN PROGD...BUT WILL
NOT GET TOO DRASTIC. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT IF WE GET
SOME STRATOCU...IT WOULD BE A RAW DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS
REINFORCING SHOT SHOULD BE DRY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE
GFS STAYS MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF AND
INTENSIFIES SOUTHWEST U.S. SYSTEM. IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS INTRODUCED AHEAD OF SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT COLD...BUT GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY SURFACE
AIR...A MIX WOULD BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER...STRONG SUPPORT OF GFS
ENSEMBLES IN ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW US TO STICK
TO CURRENT FORECAST TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 63 42 58 / 0 10 10 10
HOBART OK 40 65 36 60 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 75 40 64 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 31 60 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 43 61 38 55 / 0 10 30 10
DURANT OK 46 67 45 63 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/11/32
000
FXUS64 KOUN 230350
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
A FEW AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST /KLAW AND KAXS
CURRENTLY/ WITH VSBYS 1 TO 2SM ALTHOUGH HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT
YET. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL RH CLIMBING THROUGH THE
NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PACKAGE THIS
EVENING. MAIN MODIFICATION TO THE FORECAST IS EVENING CLOUD COVER
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA... ALTHOUGH
DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON
SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... THE
LINGERING PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 1 KFT AGL... WITH
AREAS OF FOG AOB 3 MI... LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW OK INTO
N-TX. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NW OK TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CONVERGENCE ZONES AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONT ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT
STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...FROM AROUND SPS/LAW/DUC NORTHWARD TO JUST
WEST OF OKC. STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA NEAR AND NORTH OF WWR. STILL THINK THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SAME ZONE WILL BE UP FOR MORE
STRATUS AND/OR DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
RELATIVE MOIST AXIS DOESN`T MOVE MUCH AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
WEAK TONIGHT...SO ALMOST A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING POSSIBLE. WE WILL
MENTION DENSE FOG WILL WE THINK CHANCES ARE HIGHEST...AND EVENING
SHIFT CAN MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT PROGD TO PASS THROUGH REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP ERODE THE PERSISTENT MOIST
AXIS THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH-CENTRAL DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY...BUT REGION WIDE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A COOLER AND BREEZY DAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR STILL LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. STILL THINK AIR WILL BE COOLER THAN PROGD...BUT WILL
NOT GET TOO DRASTIC. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT IF WE GET
SOME STRATOCU...IT WOULD BE A RAW DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS
REINFORCING SHOT SHOULD BE DRY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE
GFS STAYS MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF AND
INTENSIFIES SOUTHWEST U.S. SYSTEM. IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS INTRODUCED AHEAD OF SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT COLD...BUT GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY SURFACE
AIR...A MIX WOULD BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER...STRONG SUPPORT OF GFS
ENSEMBLES IN ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW US TO STICK
TO CURRENT FORECAST TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 63 42 58 / 0 10 10 10
HOBART OK 40 65 36 60 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 75 40 64 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 31 60 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 43 61 38 55 / 0 10 30 10
DURANT OK 46 67 45 63 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KTSA 230306
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILES INDICATE THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AXIS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR AREA AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES QUICKLY TO THE EAST. LIGHT WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK...ESPECIALLY SERN OK...TO
DROP RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND THEY ARE NEAR FORECASTED VALUES AT
THIS TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE HOURS TO FALL BEFORE
CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS...MAY
GO ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW FORECASTED VALUES SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND SKY COVER GRIDS.
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 45 65 43 57 / 0 10 40 10
FSM 45 67 48 57 / 0 10 70 20
MLC 43 66 45 59 / 0 10 30 0
BVO 40 66 41 56 / 0 10 30 10
FYV 42 60 47 53 / 0 10 70 20
BYV 43 60 47 55 / 10 10 70 30
MKO 43 66 42 55 / 0 10 40 0
MIO 43 66 42 54 / 0 10 50 10
F10 42 66 43 57 / 0 10 40 10
HHW 45 68 50 62 / 0 10 30 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....69
000
FXUS64 KOUN 222312
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
512 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON
SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... THE
LINGERING PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH COULD
RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND 1 KFT AGL... WITH
AREAS OF FOG AOB 3 MI... LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW OK INTO
N-TX. THE CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NW OK TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CONVERGENCE ZONES AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONT ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT
STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...FROM AROUND SPS/LAW/DUC NORTHWARD TO JUST
WEST OF OKC. STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA NEAR AND NORTH OF WWR. STILL THINK THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SAME ZONE WILL BE UP FOR MORE
STRATUS AND/OR DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
RELATIVE MOIST AXIS DOESN`T MOVE MUCH AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
WEAK TONIGHT...SO ALMOST A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING POSSIBLE. WE WILL
MENTION DENSE FOG WILL WE THINK CHANCES ARE HIGHEST...AND EVENING
SHIFT CAN MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT PROGD TO PASS THROUGH REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP ERODE THE PERSISTENT MOIST
AXIS THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH-CENTRAL DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY...BUT REGION WIDE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A COOLER AND BREEZY DAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR STILL LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. STILL THINK AIR WILL BE COOLER THAN PROGD...BUT WILL
NOT GET TOO DRASTIC. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT IF WE GET
SOME STRATOCU...IT WOULD BE A RAW DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS
REINFORCING SHOT SHOULD BE DRY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE
GFS STAYS MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF AND
INTENSIFIES SOUTHWEST U.S. SYSTEM. IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS INTRODUCED AHEAD OF SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT COLD...BUT GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY SURFACE
AIR...A MIX WOULD BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER...STRONG SUPPORT OF GFS
ENSEMBLES IN ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW US TO STICK
TO CURRENT FORECAST TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 63 42 58 / 0 10 10 10
HOBART OK 40 65 36 60 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 75 40 64 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 31 60 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 43 61 38 55 / 0 10 30 10
DURANT OK 46 67 45 63 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/11/32
000
FXUS64 KTSA 222309
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL BEYOND
15Z AS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE PRESENT MIX OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY NICE FALL AFTERNOON WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A SMALL AREA OF MID CLOUDS PUSHING INTO SE SECTIONS. WEAK SFC
TROUGH TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS
SFC PRESSURES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO RESPOND TO
STRONGER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH PACIFIC NW. THUS WILL GENERALLY
SEE LIGHT WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS TO MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NW SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME
LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST SOLUTION
WHILE THE 18Z NAM COMING IN EVEN SLOWER MUCH LIKE THE UKMET.
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 75 BY 06Z...THEN THROUGH NW ARKANSAS
AROUND 15Z. TIMING OF THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED
AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT BEARING ON POP AND TEMP FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES OVER
FAR EASTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE 18Z NAM
ALSO INDICATES SOME POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS TUE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IN LATER FORECASTS.
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE EAST WITH WESTERN RIDGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE
TOP OF RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS IN TIME TO BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND LIKELY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...69
AVIATION...23
000
FXUS64 KTSA 222120
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY NICE FALL AFTERNOON WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND
A SMALL AREA OF MID CLOUDS PUSHING INTO SE SECTIONS. WEAK SFC
TROUGH TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT THIS EVENING AS
SFC PRESSURES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEGIN TO RESPOND TO
STRONGER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH PACIFIC NW. THUS WILL GENERALLY
SEE LIGHT WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS TO MOVE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST.
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NW SYSTEM AND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME
LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST SOLUTION
WHILE THE 18Z NAM COMING IN EVEN SLOWER MUCH LIKE THE UKMET.
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 75 BY 06Z...THEN THROUGH NW ARKANSAS
AROUND 15Z. TIMING OF THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED
AND WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT BEARING ON POP AND TEMP FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES OVER
FAR EASTERN AREAS AFTER 06Z MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. THE 18Z NAM
ALSO INDICATES SOME POSSIBILITY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS TUE AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IN LATER FORECASTS.
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH IN
THE EAST WITH WESTERN RIDGE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE
TOP OF RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS IN TIME TO BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLDER AIR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND LIKELY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 65 43 57 / 0 10 40 10
FSM 47 67 48 57 / 0 10 70 20
MLC 47 66 45 59 / 0 10 30 0
BVO 42 66 41 56 / 0 10 30 10
FYV 44 60 47 53 / 0 10 70 20
BYV 45 60 47 55 / 10 10 70 30
MKO 45 66 42 55 / 0 10 40 0
MIO 45 66 42 54 / 0 10 50 10
F10 45 66 43 57 / 0 10 40 10
HHW 47 68 50 62 / 0 10 30 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 222050
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CONVERGENCE ZONES AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONT ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT
STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...FROM AROUND SPS/LAW/DUC NORTHWARD TO JUST
WEST OF OKC. STRATOCU BEHIND FRONT CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA NEAR AND NORTH OF WWR. STILL THINK THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SAME ZONE WILL BE UP FOR MORE
STRATUS AND/OR DENSE FOG TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
RELATIVE MOIST AXIS DOESN`T MOVE MUCH AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
WEAK TONIGHT...SO ALMOST A REPEAT OF THIS MORNING POSSIBLE. WE WILL
MENTION DENSE FOG WILL WE THINK CHANCES ARE HIGHEST...AND EVENING
SHIFT CAN MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT PROGD TO PASS THROUGH REGION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL HELP ERODE THE PERSISTENT MOIST
AXIS THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
MAINLY FAR NORTH-CENTRAL DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT. SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY...BUT REGION WIDE...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A COOLER AND BREEZY DAY. REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR STILL LOOKS LIKELY ON THURSDAY...WITH FAVORABLE MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. STILL THINK AIR WILL BE COOLER THAN PROGD...BUT WILL
NOT GET TOO DRASTIC. MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE...BUT IF WE GET
SOME STRATOCU...IT WOULD BE A RAW DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS
REINFORCING SHOT SHOULD BE DRY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE
GFS STAYS MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF CUTS OFF AND
INTENSIFIES SOUTHWEST U.S. SYSTEM. IF ECMWF VERIFIES...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS INTRODUCED AHEAD OF SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT COLD...BUT GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY SURFACE
AIR...A MIX WOULD BE ON THE TABLE. HOWEVER...STRONG SUPPORT OF GFS
ENSEMBLES IN ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW US TO STICK
TO CURRENT FORECAST TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 63 42 58 / 0 10 10 10
HOBART OK 40 65 36 60 / 0 0 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 41 75 40 64 / 0 0 10 0
GAGE OK 31 60 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 43 61 38 55 / 0 10 30 10
DURANT OK 46 67 45 63 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/11
000
FXUS64 KOUN 221749
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1149 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL ERODE SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BUT WILL ACTUALLY
SPREAD INTO KPNC FOR A FEW HOURS. WITH WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVER OKLAHOMA...WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND
MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THIS WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. BEST
CHANCES WILL EXTEND FROM AROUND KLAW NORTHEAST THROUGH KOKC-KPNC.
WILL INCLUDE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS CENTRAL-NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH
TEMP VLIFR NEAR KLAW.
&&
.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL CONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY COVER GRIDS TO SHOW THIS. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
CURRENT TRENDS. FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR NORTHWEST OK THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BAND OF STRATUS IS QUITE NARROW. DRIER AIR
HOWEVER WILL LARGELY REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SEPARATES THE HUMID AIR MASS TO THE EAST. THIS RESIDENT
TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
EFFECTIVELY BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES LATER MONDAY AND
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE GONE BY TUESDAY
WHEN FINALLY A MORE TYPICAL AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND TROUGH AND FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN BRING SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMALS THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 41 63 39 / 10 0 10 20
HOBART OK 63 39 65 39 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 59 31 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 41 64 39 / 10 0 10 20
DURANT OK 67 44 67 45 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/11
000
FXUS64 KTSA 221741
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1141 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. NARROW BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS JUST TO OUR
WEST SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE BUT IT MAY AFFECT AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 BEFORE IT DOES SO.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
PLATE
000
FXUS64 KTSA 221732
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1132 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING MONDAY. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 15Z THIS MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AFTER
06Z....WHEN MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND COOL NIGHT UNDERWAY...AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE
40S UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS PRESENTLY ACROSS
WRN OK MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER E AND IMPACT WRN PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT...WITH ANY
LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING WELL TO OUR N.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO
THE PAC NW COAST AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND EXIT INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATE
TUESDAY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN OK INTO NWRN AR. HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
BUMP UP POPS AS TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
COOLER PACIFIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON THANKSGIVING
DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW ZIPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE APPEARS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
MEX/ECMWF NUMBERS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX
GUIDANCE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS IN STORE.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KOUN 221616 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL CONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY COVER GRIDS TO SHOW THIS. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
CURRENT TRENDS. FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR NORTHWEST OK THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY
BEFORE WASHING OUT. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BAND OF STRATUS IS QUITE NARROW. DRIER AIR
HOWEVER WILL LARGELY REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SEPARATES THE HUMID AIR MASS TO THE EAST. THIS RESIDENT
TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
EFFECTIVELY BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES LATER MONDAY AND
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE GONE BY TUESDAY
WHEN FINALLY A MORE TYPICAL AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND TROUGH AND FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN BRING SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMALS THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 41 63 39 / 10 0 10 20
HOBART OK 63 39 65 39 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 59 31 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 63 41 64 39 / 10 0 10 20
DURANT OK 67 44 67 45 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/11
000
FXUS64 KTSA 221139
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL 15Z THIS MORNING...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AFTER
06Z....WHEN MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND COOL NIGHT UNDERWAY...AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE
40S UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS PRESENTLY ACROSS
WRN OK MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER E AND IMPACT WRN PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT...WITH ANY
LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING WELL TO OUR N.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO
THE PAC NW COAST AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND EXIT INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATE
TUESDAY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN OK INTO NWRN AR. HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
BUMP UP POPS AS TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
COOLER PACIFIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON THANKSGIVING
DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW ZIPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE APPEARS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
MEX/ECMWF NUMBERS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX
GUIDANCE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS IN STORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 65 45 67 44 / 0 0 10 30
FSM 65 46 66 47 / 0 10 0 50
MLC 67 45 68 46 / 0 0 0 40
BVO 64 41 67 39 / 0 10 10 30
FYV 64 42 63 45 / 0 10 0 40
BYV 62 43 59 44 / 0 10 0 40
MKO 66 45 66 41 / 0 10 0 30
MIO 67 44 64 42 / 0 10 10 30
F10 65 45 67 41 / 0 0 10 30
HHW 66 46 69 52 / 0 10 0 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21
000
FXUS64 KOUN 220915
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND DENSE FOG IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE BAND OF STRATUS IS QUITE NARROW. DRIER AIR
HOWEVER WILL LARGELY REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES AS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SEPARATES THE HUMID AIR MASS TO THE EAST. THIS RESIDENT
TROUGH WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
EFFECTIVELY BECOME THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES LATER MONDAY AND
BRINGS A CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE GONE BY TUESDAY
WHEN FINALLY A MORE TYPICAL AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND TROUGH AND FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL DO
LITTLE MORE THAN BRING SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMALS THIS WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 41 63 39 / 10 0 10 20
HOBART OK 63 39 65 39 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 64 31 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 41 64 39 / 10 0 10 20
DURANT OK 64 44 67 45 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ023-027-
038>041-044>047-050-051.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ086-089-
090.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KTSA 220853
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND COOL NIGHT UNDERWAY...AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE
40S UNDER WEAK SFC RIDGING CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS PRESENTLY ACROSS
WRN OK MAY DEVELOP A BIT FARTHER E AND IMPACT WRN PARTS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT...WITH ANY
LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING WELL TO OUR N.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ONTO
THE PAC NW COAST AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH AN UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND EXIT INTO THE MS VALLEY BY LATE
TUESDAY. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN OK INTO NWRN AR. HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
BUMP UP POPS AS TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
COOLER PACIFIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON THANKSGIVING
DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW ZIPS THROUGH THE PLAINS. A WIDESPREAD
FREEZE APPEARS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
MEX/ECMWF NUMBERS...WHICH YIELDS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MEX
GUIDANCE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL GOING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MILDER TEMPS IN STORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 65 45 67 44 / 0 0 10 30
FSM 65 46 66 47 / 0 10 0 50
MLC 67 45 68 46 / 0 0 0 40
BVO 64 41 67 39 / 0 10 10 30
FYV 64 42 63 45 / 0 10 0 40
BYV 62 43 59 44 / 0 10 0 40
MKO 66 45 66 41 / 0 10 0 30
MIO 67 44 64 42 / 0 10 10 30
F10 65 45 67 41 / 0 0 10 30
HHW 66 46 69 52 / 0 10 0 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KOUN 220818
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATE... TO INCLUDE THE NEW COUNTY LIST.
WE ARE EXTENDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE AREAS FARTHER
EAST... WHERE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE
BECOMING EVIDENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A NARROW AREA FROM ARCHER AND
CLAY COUNTIES TEXAS NORTH TO CADDO COUNTY OKLAHOMA... INCLUDING
WICHITA FALLS... LAWTON AND A PORTION OF INTERSTATE 44. KLAW..
KFSI AND KSPS HAVE GONE DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR A WHILE. STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER WEST AND LOWER MOISTURE FARTHER EAST MAY KEEP FOG
CONFINED TO THIS RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR... ALTHOUGH THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EAST IF FOG DEVELOPS AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO FALL. AT LEAST INITIALLY THE MAV GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON FOG AREA BRINGING KLAW AND KFSI
VISIBILITIES CRASHING DOWN BUT KEEPING KDUC UNRESTRICTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT JUST TO THE EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS... WITH AREAS OF FOG... WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N-TX ALONG A BAND OF
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE... LOCAL
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL OK TOWARDS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE... MAINLY TO ADJUST SHORT-TERM SKY GRIDS
AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OUT WEST. DO HAVE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING... CURRENTLY IN THE KLAW AND KSPS AREAS. FOG IS IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SW OK AND
WESTERN N-TX WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER... AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW OK WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SLOW BUT CONTINUAL EROSION OF THIN CLOUD BAND FROM AROUND WICHITA
FALLS UP THROUGH OKC AND PNC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PARTICULAR AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS REGION...FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PATCHY OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT ENTERS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TOMORROW FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE HAVING LARGE SENSIBLE EFFECT ON REGION...OUTSIDE
OF WINDS SHIFTS OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA.
STRONGER FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT STILL PROGD TO AFFECT REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COOL...BEING PACIFIC
AND DOWNSLOPED ROCKY AIR. DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL ALLOW SOME CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE IT DOWN
INTO REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS THURSDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY BASED ON THIS FACT...WITH LATEST ECMWF CATCHING ON
TO GFS LOWER LEVEL EVOLUTION. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE CANADIAN SURGE EARLY THURSDAY...EXTENDED PORTION
OF FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 44 64 38 / 0 0 0 20
HOBART OK 63 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 43 64 41 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 61 32 55 26 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 61 42 60 39 / 10 0 10 20
DURANT OK 66 45 65 46 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ023-027-
038>041-044>047-050-051.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ086-089-
090.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KOUN 220815
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WE ARE EXTENDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE AREAS FARTHER
EAST... WHERE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE
BECOMING EVIDENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A NARROW AREA FROM ARCHER AND
CLAY COUNTIES TEXAS NORTH TO CADDO COUNTY OKLAHOMA... INCLUDING
WICHITA FALLS... LAWTON AND A PORTION OF INTERSTATE 44. KLAW..
KFSI AND KSPS HAVE GONE DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR A WHILE. STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER WEST AND LOWER MOISTURE FARTHER EAST MAY KEEP FOG
CONFINED TO THIS RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR... ALTHOUGH THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EAST IF FOG DEVELOPS AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO FALL. AT LEAST INITIALLY THE MAV GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON FOG AREA BRINGING KLAW AND KFSI
VISIBILITIES CRASHING DOWN BUT KEEPING KDUC UNRESTRICTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT JUST TO THE EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS... WITH AREAS OF FOG... WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N-TX ALONG A BAND OF
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE... LOCAL
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL OK TOWARDS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE... MAINLY TO ADJUST SHORT-TERM SKY GRIDS
AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OUT WEST. DO HAVE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING... CURRENTLY IN THE KLAW AND KSPS AREAS. FOG IS IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SW OK AND
WESTERN N-TX WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER... AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW OK WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SLOW BUT CONTINUAL EROSION OF THIN CLOUD BAND FROM AROUND WICHITA
FALLS UP THROUGH OKC AND PNC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PARTICULAR AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS REGION...FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PATCHY OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT ENTERS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TOMORROW FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE HAVING LARGE SENSIBLE EFFECT ON REGION...OUTSIDE
OF WINDS SHIFTS OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA.
STRONGER FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT STILL PROGD TO AFFECT REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COOL...BEING PACIFIC
AND DOWNSLOPED ROCKY AIR. DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL ALLOW SOME CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE IT DOWN
INTO REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS THURSDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY BASED ON THIS FACT...WITH LATEST ECMWF CATCHING ON
TO GFS LOWER LEVEL EVOLUTION. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE CANADIAN SURGE EARLY THURSDAY...EXTENDED PORTION
OF FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 64 44 64 38 / 0 0 0 20
HOBART OK 63 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 43 64 41 / 0 0 0 10
GAGE OK 61 32 55 26 / 10 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 61 42 60 39 / 10 0 10 20
DURANT OK 66 45 65 46 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ023-038-
044.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ086-089-
090.
&&
$$
23/09
000
FXUS64 KOUN 220521
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A NARROW AREA FROM ARCHER AND
CLAY COUNTIES TEXAS NORTH TO CADDO COUNTY OKLAHOMA... INCLUDING
WICHITA FALLS... LAWTON AND A PORTION OF INTERSTATE 44. KLAW..
KFSI AND KSPS HAVE GONE DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR A WHILE. STRONGER WINDS
FARTHER WEST AND LOWER MOISTURE FARTHER EAST MAY KEEP FOG
CONFINED TO THIS RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR... ALTHOUGH THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EAST IF FOG DEVELOPS AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO FALL. AT LEAST INITIALLY THE MAV GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON FOG AREA BRINGING KLAW AND KFSI
VISIBILITIES CRASHING DOWN BUT KEEPING KDUC UNRESTRICTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT JUST TO THE EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS... WITH AREAS OF FOG... WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N-TX ALONG A BAND OF
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE... LOCAL
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL OK TOWARDS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE... MAINLY TO ADJUST SHORT-TERM SKY GRIDS
AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OUT WEST. DO HAVE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING... CURRENTLY IN THE KLAW AND KSPS AREAS. FOG IS IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SW OK AND
WESTERN N-TX WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER... AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW OK WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SLOW BUT CONTINUAL EROSION OF THIN CLOUD BAND FROM AROUND WICHITA
FALLS UP THROUGH OKC AND PNC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PARTICULAR AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS REGION...FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PATCHY OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT ENTERS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TOMORROW FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE HAVING LARGE SENSIBLE EFFECT ON REGION...OUTSIDE
OF WINDS SHIFTS OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA.
STRONGER FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT STILL PROGD TO AFFECT REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COOL...BEING PACIFIC
AND DOWNSLOPED ROCKY AIR. DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL ALLOW SOME CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE IT DOWN
INTO REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS THURSDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY BASED ON THIS FACT...WITH LATEST ECMWF CATCHING ON
TO GFS LOWER LEVEL EVOLUTION. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE CANADIAN SURGE EARLY THURSDAY...EXTENDED PORTION
OF FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 64 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 63 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 67 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 39 61 32 55 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 61 42 60 / 0 10 0 10
DURANT OK 45 66 45 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ023-038-044.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ086-089-090.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KTSA 220515
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1115 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS NWRN AR THIS EVENING AND
WILL LIKELY SEE INTERMITTENT MID CLOUDS FAR ERN OK/NWRN AR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW OVER SRN LA TRANSLATES SLOWLY EWRD INTO SRN
AL OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOST
AREAS AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...MAINTAINING
LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK GIVEN LATEST DATA/TRENDS. NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS
EVENING...
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KOUN 220439
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1039 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS... WITH AREAS OF FOG... WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N-TX ALONG A BAND OF
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE... LOCAL
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL OK TOWARDS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE... MAINLY TO ADJUST SHORT-TERM SKY GRIDS
AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OUT WEST. DO HAVE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING... CURRENTLY IN THE KLAW AND KSPS AREAS. FOG IS IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SW OK AND
WESTERN N-TX WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER... AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW OK WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SLOW BUT CONTINUAL EROSION OF THIN CLOUD BAND FROM AROUND WICHITA
FALLS UP THROUGH OKC AND PNC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PARTICULAR AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS REGION...FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PATCHY OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT ENTERS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TOMORROW FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE HAVING LARGE SENSIBLE EFFECT ON REGION...OUTSIDE
OF WINDS SHIFTS OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA.
STRONGER FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT STILL PROGD TO AFFECT REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COOL...BEING PACIFIC
AND DOWNSLOPED ROCKY AIR. DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL ALLOW SOME CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE IT DOWN
INTO REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS THURSDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY BASED ON THIS FACT...WITH LATEST ECMWF CATCHING ON
TO GFS LOWER LEVEL EVOLUTION. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE CANADIAN SURGE EARLY THURSDAY...EXTENDED PORTION
OF FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 64 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 63 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 67 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 39 61 32 55 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 61 42 60 / 0 10 0 10
DURANT OK 45 66 45 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/11/32
000
FXUS64 KOUN 220350
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
950 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE... MAINLY TO ADJUST SHORT-TERM SKY GRIDS
AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS OUT WEST. DO HAVE AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING... CURRENTLY IN THE KLAW AND KSPS AREAS. FOG IS IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF ANY
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SW OK AND
WESTERN N-TX WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER... AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW OK WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SLOW BUT CONTINUAL EROSION OF THIN CLOUD BAND FROM AROUND WICHITA
FALLS UP THROUGH OKC AND PNC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PARTICULAR AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS REGION...FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PATCHY OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT ENTERS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TOMORROW FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE HAVING LARGE SENSIBLE EFFECT ON REGION...OUTSIDE
OF WINDS SHIFTS OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA.
STRONGER FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT STILL PROGD TO AFFECT REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COOL...BEING PACIFIC
AND DOWNSLOPED ROCKY AIR. DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL ALLOW SOME CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE IT DOWN
INTO REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS THURSDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY BASED ON THIS FACT...WITH LATEST ECMWF CATCHING ON
TO GFS LOWER LEVEL EVOLUTION. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE CANADIAN SURGE EARLY THURSDAY...EXTENDED PORTION
OF FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 64 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 63 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 67 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 39 61 32 55 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 61 42 60 / 0 10 0 10
DURANT OK 45 66 45 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KTSA 220259
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
859 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS NWRN AR THIS EVENING AND
WILL LIKELY SEE INTERMITTENT MID CLOUDS FAR ERN OK/NWRN AR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS UPPER LOW OVER SRN LA TRANSLATES SLOWLY EWRD INTO SRN
AL OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOST
AREAS AS NEXT SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE SRN PLAINS...MAINTAINING
LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK GIVEN LATEST DATA/TRENDS. NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS
EVENING...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 44 66 46 65 / 0 10 10 10
FSM 43 67 45 67 / 0 10 10 10
MLC 42 67 45 67 / 0 10 0 10
BVO 40 66 40 65 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 40 63 40 64 / 0 10 10 10
BYV 41 62 42 62 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 42 66 44 64 / 0 10 10 10
MIO 42 65 43 65 / 0 10 10 10
F10 42 66 44 65 / 0 10 0 10
HHW 44 67 45 68 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....69
000
FXUS64 KOUN 212323
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
523 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SW OK AND
WESTERN N-TX WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER... AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SW OK WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SLOW BUT CONTINUAL EROSION OF THIN CLOUD BAND FROM AROUND WICHITA
FALLS UP THROUGH OKC AND PNC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PARTICULAR AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS REGION...FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PATCHY OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT ENTERS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TOMORROW FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE HAVING LARGE SENSIBLE EFFECT ON REGION...OUTSIDE
OF WINDS SHIFTS OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA.
STRONGER FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT STILL PROGD TO AFFECT REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COOL...BEING PACIFIC
AND DOWNSLOPED ROCKY AIR. DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL ALLOW SOME CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE IT DOWN
INTO REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS THURSDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY BASED ON THIS FACT...WITH LATEST ECMWF CATCHING ON
TO GFS LOWER LEVEL EVOLUTION. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE CANADIAN SURGE EARLY THURSDAY...EXTENDED PORTION
OF FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 64 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 63 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 67 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 39 61 32 55 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 61 42 60 / 0 10 0 10
DURANT OK 45 66 45 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/11/32
000
FXUS64 KTSA 212319
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
519 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO SUN IN MOST AREAS
AND HAS TURNED INTO A LOVELY FALL AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW HAS
BEGUN TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS IN AND THIS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KICKED UP TO
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
THE SFC GRADIENT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW-MID 40S MOST PLACES. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY...BUT OTHERWISE ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MOSTLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO LACK CONSISTENCY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING BUT A GENERAL
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRACKING THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND PUSHING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE BUT LIKELY
ENOUGH GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM TO EKE OUT A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS THEREAFTER.
A SECOND UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS GIVES THE AREA A GOOD
SHOT AT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
WITH WARMING TREND FOR NEXT SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
000
FXUS64 KTSA 212114
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
314 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING HAVE GIVEN WAY TO SUN IN MOST AREAS
AND HAS TURNED INTO A LOVELY FALL AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW HAS
BEGUN TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS IN AND THIS SHOULD ALLEVIATE THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS HAVE KICKED UP TO
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
THE SFC GRADIENT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
LOW-MID 40S MOST PLACES. A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY...BUT OTHERWISE ANOTHER
WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON.
STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MOSTLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO LACK CONSISTENCY WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING BUT A GENERAL
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE TRACKING THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND PUSHING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE BUT LIKELY
ENOUGH GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM TO EKE OUT A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS THEREAFTER.
A SECOND UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL AIR FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS GIVES THE AREA A GOOD
SHOT AT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
WITH WARMING TREND FOR NEXT SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 44 66 46 65 / 0 10 10 10
FSM 43 67 45 67 / 0 10 10 10
MLC 42 67 45 67 / 0 10 0 10
BVO 40 66 40 65 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 40 63 40 64 / 0 10 10 10
BYV 41 62 42 62 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 42 66 44 64 / 0 10 10 10
MIO 42 65 43 65 / 0 10 10 10
F10 42 66 44 65 / 0 10 0 10
HHW 44 67 45 68 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....14
000
FXUS64 KOUN 212101
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SLOW BUT CONTINUAL EROSION OF THIN CLOUD BAND FROM AROUND WICHITA
FALLS UP THROUGH OKC AND PNC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS PARTICULAR AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS REGION...FOG NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AND SHOULD
BE FAIRLY PATCHY OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT ENTERS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA TOMORROW FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE HAVING LARGE SENSIBLE EFFECT ON REGION...OUTSIDE
OF WINDS SHIFTS OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA.
STRONGER FRONT WITH UPPER SUPPORT STILL PROGD TO AFFECT REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA. THIS NEW AIRMASS WILL NOT BE OVERLY COOL...BEING PACIFIC
AND DOWNSLOPED ROCKY AIR. DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH/CUTOFF WILL ALLOW SOME CANADIAN AIR TO MAKE IT DOWN
INTO REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS THURSDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY BASED ON THIS FACT...WITH LATEST ECMWF CATCHING ON
TO GFS LOWER LEVEL EVOLUTION. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE/LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE CANADIAN SURGE EARLY THURSDAY...EXTENDED PORTION
OF FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 44 64 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 45 63 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 67 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 39 61 32 55 / 0 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 45 61 42 60 / 0 10 0 10
DURANT OK 45 66 45 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/11
000
FXUS64 KOUN 211753
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
LIFR-IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LIFT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO HANG ON LONGEST AT/NEAR KPNC AND DOWN AROUND KLAW/KSPS.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP MIX OUT SOME OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. AREAS OF LOWER-END
IFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH INCREASING WIND AND
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...WILL NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE ATTM.
&&
.UPDATE...
FOG... DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS... AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. WITH MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT FLOW LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS...
FOG... AND DRIZZLE WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE SO HAVE
EXTENDED FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ADJUSTED SKY COVER. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING IN MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN A STEADY-STATE AIR MASS TODAY.
CLEARING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY APPROACHING 220600.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 43 60 43 / 10 0 10 0
HOBART OK 62 43 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 43 69 44 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 62 38 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 46 60 44 / 10 0 10 0
DURANT OK 58 44 63 48 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/11
000
FXUS64 KTSA 211737
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1137 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST
TAF SITES WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS WITH
TIME. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT THE ARKANSAS TAF
SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE
DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LARGE HOLES ARE OPENING
UP IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES. AS A
RESULT...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...05
000
FXUS64 KTSA 211705
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1105 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE
DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LARGE HOLES ARE OPENING
UP IN THE CLOUD DECK AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES. AS A
RESULT...WILL RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
PLATE
000
FXUS64 KOUN 211540 AAA
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
FOG... DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS... AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. WITH MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT FLOW LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS...
FOG... AND DRIZZLE WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE SO HAVE
EXTENDED FOG AND DRIZZLE INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ADJUSTED SKY COVER. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING IN MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN A STEADY-STATE AIR MASS TODAY.
CLEARING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY APPROACHING 220600.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 57 43 60 43 / 10 0 10 0
HOBART OK 62 43 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 43 69 44 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 62 38 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 46 60 44 / 10 0 10 0
DURANT OK 58 44 63 48 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/11
000
FXUS64 KOUN 211207
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
607 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING IN MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL RESULT IN A STEADY-STATE AIR MASS TODAY.
CLEARING IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY APPROACHING 220600.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 43 60 43 / 10 0 10 0
HOBART OK 62 43 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 43 69 44 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 63 38 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 46 60 44 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 61 44 63 48 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09/09
000
FXUS64 KTSA 210844
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
244 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK...ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG. FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES
ACROSS PARTS OF NW AR...AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS...BUT NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MIX OUT/DRY LATER TODAY
PER POINT SOUNDINGS...SO SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY FOR SOME
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SE OK AND WRN AR.
THE TX UPPER LOW WILL PUSH E THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES LATER
THIS WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE ZIPPING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOESN`T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL KEEP POPS OUT FOR NOW.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
DROP INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE
00Z GFS IS TRENDING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT
A FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH MARGINAL CHANCES OF
CONVECTION. COOLER PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS RUNNING NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. COULD SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE BY THANKSGIVING
MORNING...PRIMARILY N OF INTERSTATE 40. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 62 45 64 47 / 10 10 10 10
FSM 63 46 65 46 / 20 10 10 10
MLC 62 43 66 48 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 61 41 65 42 / 10 10 10 10
FYV 59 40 64 42 / 20 10 10 10
BYV 60 43 62 44 / 10 10 10 10
MKO 62 44 65 46 / 20 10 10 10
MIO 61 45 65 45 / 10 10 10 10
F10 61 44 65 46 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 59 42 65 49 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....18
000
FXUS64 KOUN 210841
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
241 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS IN A VERY MOIST LAYER AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL AGAIN ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
PERSIST MUCH OR ALL OF THE DAYTIME TODAY. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE
COMMON, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE COMING NIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL BEFORE WINDS INCREASE MODESTLY SUNDAY
IN THE DAYTIME. AFTER A QUITE WARM MONDAY, A FRONT IS EXPECTED
WITH THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT LATER
MONDAY. THE WEEK WILL HAVE NEAR SEASONABLE AND A SECOND FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WIND.
HOWEVER, NO COLD AIR MASS IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SOURCE REGION WILL
BE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. ROCKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 58 43 60 43 / 10 0 10 0
HOBART OK 62 43 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 43 69 44 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 63 38 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 46 60 44 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 61 44 63 48 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
23/09
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