000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212041
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
341 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
BRING SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES
BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE CLOUDS ERODING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL HYDROLAPSE /VERTICAL HUMIDITY
PROFILE/ SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT...SUBSEQUENT
NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO FOG PATCHES BY EARLY
MORNING.

DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS AND HENCE
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MILDER THAN NORMALS USING CLOSE TO
RECENT BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES ALONG WITH SREF MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL SHOWERS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES CAN BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST...THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH WILL COME TO AN END.

EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EACH NIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEN FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE LOW
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE 3KFT MARK AT ALL TAF
SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY
SUNSET...WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BRING IN DRIER
AIR. MVFR CIGS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT FAVORED
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCTP 212038
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
338 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STUBBORN CLOUDINESS WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE OVER MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT PROMISES TO
BRING RAIN STATEWIDE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER WEATHER
TO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NAM BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLASSIC BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION AROUND THE 296K TO 298K LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PA BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FEET THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...
AS CENTER OF 1023 MB SFC HIGH MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF
ALOFT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LAURELS. ANY BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST THAT DO FORM FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
LAURELS...EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER QUICKLY FILL IN
AS A RESULT OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING IN THE NNW FLOW ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO
KEEP P/C CONDS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE COLD AIR DEPARTS TONIGHT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE INVERSION WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL SFC COOLING AND SHALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS EARLY
ON SUNDAY BEFORE BETTER MIXING AND BRIGHTER SKIES PREVAIL FOR
MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
WITH CONTINUED RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY EVERYWHERE WITH A MILDER AFTERNOON.
NAEFS GIVES HIGHER MAV MOS TEMPS...RANGING IN THE L/M50S MOST
SPOTS.

EXPECT INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE FROM DEEP EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE TRACKS TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING A
LARGE OVER WATER FETCH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...A DECAYING UPPER WAVE IMPINGING UPON THE UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY DAWN MONDAY...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES
LATER MONDAY AS THE CAD IS WELL ESTABLISHED BELOW WAA ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE WEAK SYSTEM LIFTING NE FROM THE GULF AREA LATER ON
MONDAY INTO TUE. DID SLOW THINGS DOWN SOME AND THINK BULK OF
ANY RAIN WOULD HOLD OFF TO AFT. DID CUT POPS BACK SOME. EXPECT
AMTS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

SOME CLDS AND LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE FOR THE MOST PART...COULD
LINGER INTO TUE.

QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD SEE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN AREAS STAYING DRY.

FOR WED...CENTRAL PA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS. GFS LOOKS FAST...
HPC NOT AS FAST... WEIGHTED FCST TO SLOWER SPEED.

OVERALL...ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

FOR THU INTO SAT...TEMPS COOLING OFF CLOSER TO NORMAL...AS
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...AND MORE OF A TROUGH
PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. SOME RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTS THU INTO FRIDAY.

ENOUGH RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY...TO KEEP MOST OF THE
AREA DRY.

OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR.
THU...MVFR WITH CHC -SHRASN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

000
FXUS61 KPHI 212030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER CANADA`S MARITIME
PROVINCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DRIFTING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 3:00 PM, TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION WERE MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THERE WERE SOME READINGS IN THE 40S UP IN THE POCONOS. THE SKY WAS
MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR THICK CIRRUS OVER PARTS OF THE DELMARVA
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE WAS ALSO A LITTLE STRATOCUMULUS
POKING DOWN OVER THE POCONO REGION.

THE CIRRUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST AND OFF THE
COAST. MEANWHILE, SOME OF THE STRATOCUMULUS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE POCONO REGION INTO TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED UP IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD MOVE TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE HIGH INFLUENCING OUR REGION, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR SUNDAY. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST, AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.

THE 12 UTC NAM AND THE 12 UTC GFS BOTH INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS A COASTAL LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. THE 12 UTC NAM IS A LITTLE
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW THAN THE 12 UTC GFS
AND THE 12 UTC ECMWF. WE WILL FAVOR A COMPROMISE FOR THE TIME
BEING.

AS THE LOW APPROACHES, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION
FOR TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS
DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. WE START OFF WITH A BROAD SW FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MIDWEST TROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT DEEPENS AS
IT HEADS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN BECOMES CLOSED OFF AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

THIS MEANS THAT WE HAVE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE SPREADING
OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE RAIN AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH FROM
THE WEST. THEN ON FRIDAY, COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES, BUT WE STILL
COULD HAVE RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY, IT GETS COLD ENOUGH THAT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE NORTH, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW. ALSO ON SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE BREEZY/WINDY
WITH THE NW FLOW.

HPC PROGS HAVE THE SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND IN GENERAL THEIR
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE WAS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
BUT THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, AND PROVIDE A
MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST NEVER MADE IT TO OUR ARA, AND WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH AT THIS TIME EITHER. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, AND WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTH, THEN
NORTHEAST TOMORROW. THE WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE GUSTY IN SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOWER VISIBILITY IN FOG TOWARD MORNING IN SOME ISOLATED
AREAS, BUT WE ONLY HAVE IT IN THE RDG TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND COULD LAST THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE GULF STATES. THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH AND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, THEN BEGIN
SLACKING ON TUESDAY. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE SEAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. FUTURE FORECASTS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY. IN FACT, AN ADVISORY MAY
BE POSSIBLE FOR BASICALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS THERE ARE
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION IN CASE THIS COMES TO FRUITION.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD HELP
TO INCREASE TIDE LEVELS FOR SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. TIDE
LEVELS WILL HAVE TO BE MORE THAN 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET ABOVE THE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN ORDER FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING TO
OCCUR. CURRENTLY, THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5
FEET IN TIDAL ANOMALIES, SO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS, THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING COULD INCREASE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION/MARINE...ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON

000
FXUS61 KCTP 211929
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
229 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STUBBORN CLOUDINESS WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE OVER MOST
SECTIONS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT PROMISES TO
BRING RAIN STATEWIDE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER WEATHER
TO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NAM BUFKIT PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLASSIC BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION AROUND THE 296K TO 298K LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PA BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FEET THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...
AS CENTER OF 1023 MB SFC HIGH MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR AT 850 MB ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF
ALOFT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LAURELS. ANY BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST THAT DO FORM FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...
LAURELS...EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER QUICKLY FILL IN
AS A RESULT OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING IN THE NNW FLOW ACROSS MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO
KEEP P/C CONDS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.

AS THE COLD AIR DEPARTS TONIGHT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE INVERSION WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL SFC COOLING AND SHALLOW OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS EARLY
ON SUNDAY BEFORE BETTER MIXING AND BRIGHTER SKIES PREVAIL FOR
MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
WITH CONTINUED RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY EVERYWHERE WITH A MILDER AFTERNOON.
NAEFS GIVES HIGHER MAV MOS TEMPS...RANGING IN THE L/M50S MOST
SPOTS.

EXPECT INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE FROM DEEP EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE TRACKS TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING A
LARGE OVER WATER FETCH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SAME
TIME...A DECAYING UPPER WAVE IMPINGING UPON THE UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE WEST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY DAWN MONDAY...WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES
LATER MONDAY AS THE CAD IS WELL ESTABLISHED BELOW WAA ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PD BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL UPR LEVEL TROFS ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INFLUENCE ON PA. OVERALL HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST TROF...IN THE SRN STREAM...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST TDY...THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE NRN STREAM MEAN UPR RIDGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A
SMALLER...FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW ASSCD WITH THE SRN
TROF AND FORECASTS DRIER THAN PVS RUNS. GFS APPEARS AN OUTLIER
WITH A SIG WET FORECAST FOR MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF PA...AND SUCH
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PD FOLLOWING THE MULTITUDE OF
OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

HIGHEST ENSEMBLE POPS ARE MONDAY DURING THE DAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME TIMING ISSUES. LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE MONDAY DURING THE DAY AND UPPED THEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. PRETTY WEAK SYSTEM
AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUE...WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT REACHING WRN ON WED AS
SUPPORTING CLOSED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO SERN CANADA. A STRONGER UPR
TROF/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH PA THANKSGIVING NIGHT...IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR
SHOPPERS NEXT FRIDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NW PA COULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW THUR-FRI AS 850 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP SOME MVFR
CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS. VFR WILL BE THE RULE IN THE EAST
WITH SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BRING MVFR CIGS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND CHC OF R- THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR.
THU...MVFR WITH CHC -SHRASN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR

000
FXUS61 KPHI 211505
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE, LOCATED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

AT 10:00 AM, HIGH CLOUDS COVERED OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CIRRUS
OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED TO THIN A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
ENTIRE CLOUD SHIELD DRIFTS TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, SOME
STRATOCUMULUS MAY NUDGE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND OVER SOME OF
OUR COUNTIES IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. ALL
IN ALL, A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST SHOULD COVER THE SITUATION.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN OUR
REGION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY
A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY. SO, OTHER THAN SOME
CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG
FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND
REMAIN INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT
BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME
BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH
OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH
THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY. OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK
TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO
FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY); LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF)
DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS WELL. ONCE IT STARTS,
WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS COMING WEEK.
OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER

000
FXUS61 KCTP 211356
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
856 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW AND A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
GULF SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS CHANGING...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE
OUT THE TROUGH BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A CLASSIC BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION AROUND
THE 296K TO 298K LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PA BETWEEN 3K
AND 5K FEET. WITH CENTER OF 1023 MB SFC HIGH MOVING ONLY SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...DO NOT EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL
ENOUGH MIXING TO CLEAR THE STRATUS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES...BUT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS BREAKS IN THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST... ONCE
THE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD STREAMS EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
OVERALL...A TYPICAL NOVEMBER SKY ACROSS CENTRAL PA.

CORE OF THE COLD AIR AT 850 MB ASSOCIATED WITH 5H TROF ALOFT
SINKING SOUTHWARD VEROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GLAKS WILL DROP
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EASING
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HELPING TO WEAKEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INVERSION. STILL EXPECTING MAXES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE MID 50S AIDED BY SUNBREAKS ACROSS THE
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH
THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME COOLER THAN THIS
MORNING...MINS STILL LIKELY TO BE 5-10F ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE M/U30S.

AFTER PATCHY AM FOG...RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE A MSUNNY
AND MILD SUNDAY. NAEFS SUPPORTS THE HIGHER MAV MOS TEMPS...RANGING
IN THE L/M50S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PD BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL UPR LEVEL TROFS ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INFLUENCE ON PA. OVERALL HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST TROF...IN THE SRN STREAM...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST TDY...THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE NRN STREAM MEAN UPR RIDGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A
SMALLER...FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW ASSCD WITH THE SRN
TROF AND FORECASTS DRIER THAN PVS RUNS. GFS APPEARS AN OUTLIER
WITH A SIG WET FORECAST FOR MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF PA...AND SUCH
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PD FOLLOWING THE MULTITUDE OF
OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

HIGHEST ENSEMBLE POPS ARE MONDAY DURING THE DAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME TIMING ISSUES. LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE MONDAY DURING THE DAY AND UPPED THEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. PRETTY WEAK SYSTEM
AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUE...WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT REACHING WRN ON WED AS
SUPPORTING CLOSED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO SERN CANADA. A STRONGER UPR
TROF/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH PA THANKSGIVING NIGHT...IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR
SHOPPERS NEXT FRIDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NW PA COULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW THUR-FRI AS 850 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE LAYER
TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BRING IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN TAFS...BUT THESE
SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL BE THE RULE IN
THE EAST WITH SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR EARLY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR

000
FXUS61 KCTP 211211
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW AND A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
GULF SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS CHANGING...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE
OUT THE TROUGH BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
DESPITE THE HIGH...MOISTURE IN THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS KEEPING
A BROAD REGION OF LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTING IN PTCLDY SKIES
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE MOST
SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.

UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST FROM MICHIGAN CURRENTLY PRODUCING
NO PRECIP TO OUR WEST AND SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF DOING SO AS IT
MOVES INTO DRIER AIR MASS OVR PA. WSW FLOW ABOVE 700 MB WILL KEEP
PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS FOR NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA CONTINUES
TO POINT TWD HIGHS SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL TDY...WITH MAXES RANGING
FROM U40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH
THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME COOLER THAN THIS
MORNING...MINS STILL LIKELY TO BE 5-10F ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE M/U30S.

AFTER PATCHY AM FOG...RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE A MSUNNY
AND MILD SUNDAY. NAEFS SUPPORTS THE HIGHER MAV MOS TEMPS...RANGING
IN THE L/M50S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PD BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL UPR LEVEL TROFS ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INFLUENCE ON PA. OVERALL HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST TROF...IN THE SRN STREAM...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST TDY...THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE NRN STREAM MEAN UPR RIDGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A
SMALLER...FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW ASSCD WITH THE SRN
TROF AND FORECASTS DRIER THAN PVS RUNS. GFS APPEARS AN OUTLIER
WITH A SIG WET FORECAST FOR MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF PA...AND SUCH
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PD FOLLOWING THE MULTITUDE OF
OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

HIGHEST ENSEMBLE POPS ARE MONDAY DURING THE DAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME TIMING ISSUES. LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE MONDAY DURING THE DAY AND UPPED THEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. PRETTY WEAK SYSTEM
AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUE...WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT REACHING WRN ON WED AS
SUPPORTING CLOSED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO SERN CANADA. A STRONGER UPR
TROF/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH PA THANKSGIVING NIGHT...IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR
SHOPPERS NEXT FRIDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NW PA COULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW THUR-FRI AS 850 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY. MOISTURE LAYER
TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BRING IFR/MVFR CIGS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING IN HIGHER TERRAIN TAFS...BUT THESE
SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL BE THE RULE IN
THE EAST WITH SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR EARLY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW
MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH  BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A
COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONCERN TODAY AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
AT KPIT...KBVI...AND KHLG WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AT
KDUJ AND KFKL LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH CIGS BREAKING AT
KMGW/KZZV THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTHWARD...CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
3-4KFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDUJ AND
KFKL THIS AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCTP 210936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
436 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW AND A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
GULF SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS CHANGING...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE
OUT THE TROUGH BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
DESPITE THE HIGH...MOISTURE IN THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS KEEPING
A BROAD REGION OF LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL PA
THIS MORNING...WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW RESULTING IN PTCLDY SKIES
ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE MOST
SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.

UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST FROM MICHIGAN CURRENTLY PRODUCING
NO PRECIP TO OUR WEST AND SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF DOING SO AS IT
MOVES INTO DRIER AIR MASS OVR PA. WSW FLOW ABOVE 700 MB WILL KEEP
PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS FOR NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA CONTINUES
TO POINT TWD HIGHS SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL TDY...WITH MAXES RANGING
FROM U40S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT
IN CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY RADIATION FOG TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH
THE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME COOLER THAN THIS
MORNING...MINS STILL LIKELY TO BE 5-10F ABV NORMAL WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE M/U30S.

AFTER PATCHY AM FOG...RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE A MSUNNY
AND MILD SUNDAY. NAEFS SUPPORTS THE HIGHER MAV MOS TEMPS...RANGING
IN THE L/M50S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PD BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL UPR LEVEL TROFS ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INFLUENCE ON PA. OVERALL HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST TROF...IN THE SRN STREAM...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST TDY...THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE NRN STREAM MEAN UPR RIDGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A
SMALLER...FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW ASSCD WITH THE SRN
TROF AND FORECASTS DRIER THAN PVS RUNS. GFS APPEARS AN OUTLIER
WITH A SIG WET FORECAST FOR MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF PA...AND SUCH
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PD FOLLOWING THE MULTITUDE OF
OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

HIGHEST ENSEMBLE POPS ARE MONDAY DURING THE DAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SOME TIMING ISSUES. LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT
RANGE MONDAY DURING THE DAY AND UPPED THEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. PRETTY WEAK SYSTEM
AND THE RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUE...WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT REACHING WRN ON WED AS
SUPPORTING CLOSED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO SERN CANADA. A STRONGER UPR
TROF/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH PA THANKSGIVING NIGHT...IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR
SHOPPERS NEXT FRIDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NW PA COULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW THUR-FRI AS 850 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY ARRIVING AT BFD ARND 06Z WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
CIGS TO ARND 1000-1500FT AGL. IFR CIGS ARRIVE AT JST/AOO/UNV/IPT
BTWN 08-12Z...BOUNCING BACK TO VFR CONDS BY 16-18Z WITH BETTER
MIXING. MDT SHUD HOLD AT VFR CONDS FROM WEAK DOWNSLOPING. BY 00Z
SUN LGT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNING NE SHUD KEEP VFR CONDS THRU EARLY
SUN WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS SUSQ-VALLEY AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR/VFR.
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR EARLY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER/RXR

000
FXUS61 KPHI 210902 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERALLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING TO OUR WEST, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
WANT TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST. WE`VE ACKNOWLEDGED THIS BY
CARRYING SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THAN
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES WAS CONSISTENT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS MIXING TO H925 AND WITH THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE MAV AND MET
STAT GUIDANCE, AND SO WE WENT THAT WAY. EXPECT A FAIRLY MODEST
NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROAHCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING
SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WAS FAILING
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY
FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS MORNING ON OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, AND SHOULD LESSEN
SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT
LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER,
THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER
SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND
CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY.
OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH
IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY);
LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF) DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS
WELL. ONCE IT STARTS, WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEK. OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

000
FXUS61 KPHI 210854
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN
RECEDE EAST SLOWLY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE NORTH SLOWLY, PASSING BY TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GENERALLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING TO OUR WEST, ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS
WANT TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION UP
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHWEST. WE`VE ACKNOWLEDGED THIS BY
CARRYING SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THAN
ELSEWHERE. CONTINUITY ON TEMPERATURES WAS CONSISTENT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS MIXING TO H925 AND WITH THE FAIRLY AGREEABLE MAV AND MET
STAT GUIDANCE, AND SO WE WENT THAT WAY. EXPECT A FAIRLY MODEST
NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS US TONIGHT, AND AGAIN THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOLD ONTO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVELY NORTHWEST, WHILE SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
APPROAHCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ADVANCING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM. WE GO WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST AND
SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE, BUT WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DECOUPLING AND RADIATING OVER THE NORMAL RADIATING SPOTS ON THE
MIN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE, WE STAY WITH THE CONTINUITY/GUIDANCE
COMBINATION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER US AND A MID LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTH
VERY MUCH RESEMBLE A REX BLOCK, AND THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO ALLOW A
LITTLE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF US THAT SLOWS DOWN ADVANCING ENERGY
FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WE HAVE BACKED DOWN A BIT ON OUR SUNDAY
POPS IN RESPONSE, AND NOW WE ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTH.
WE DO INCREASE THE CLOUDS SOME DOWN SOUTH, BUT WE BACK OFF ON THAT
TREND NORTH. THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TIGHTEN A BIT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND NASCENT SURFACE TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
COOLER H925 TEMPS OFF THE NAM HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
ECMWF, AND SO WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE
WITH REGARD TO MAXES.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE MODELS START TO DIFFER ON WHETHER THE REX
BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OR
THE ENERGY GETS PULLED TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE PART OF SAID BLOCK.
EVEN THE MODELS THAT FAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESS OF MOISTURE, I295 ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, SO WE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BACKING OFF SOME ON
THE POPS. WE DO BRING IN MORE CLOUDINESS. WE LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER MET STAT GUIDANCE AGAIN ON THE MINS, BASICALLY FOR THE SAME
REASON THAT WE SITED FOR SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT THAT
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS
/ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/ AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
/AGAIN, ESPECIALLY OFF THE COAST/. THE MID LEVEL BLOCK IS PROGGED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND OPEN, AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND LIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY TO SOMEWHERE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HOW ORGANIZED THAT
LOW GETS IS UP IN THE AIR, BUT EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF HAS A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. WE
HAVE GONE WITH POPS THAT RANGE FROM LIKELY SOUTHEAST TO CHANCE
ELSEWHERE AS THE INDICATION SEEMS TO BE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. WE DO CARRY A FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THIS REGIME, BUT HOPEFULLY NOTHING LIKE WE DEALT
WITH AROUND VETERAN`S DAY. WE GENERALLY CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AVIATION INTERESTS TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND PROBABLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
INITIALLY BE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WAS KICKING
SOME JET STREAM CIRRUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, PROBABLY A GOOD BIT OF THIS WILL BE THIN TODAY.
OTHERWISE, THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WAS FAILING
TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS, A FEW CUMULUS MAY
FORM TOWARD MIDDAY AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN NO TENDENCY FOR FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, VEERING TO NORTH BY DARK. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 10 KNOTS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP NORTHWARD MONDAY...AND PERHAPS
REMAIN JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TO
PLAGUE OUR AREA WITH AN OCEANIC FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WERE JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EARLY THIS MORNING ON OUR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS, AND SHOULD LESSEN
SOMEWHAT DURING TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG OR
NEAR THE COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY.
RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BECOME TOO STRONG, BUT AT
LEAST STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS, WITH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEING THE PRIME TIME. HOWEVER,
THE GRADIENT MAY BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATER
SUNDAY TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING SEAS TO 5 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS MORNING/S PACKAGE FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON (OUR THIRD PERIOD) AND
CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (OUR FOURTH PERIOD). THIS
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME AS WELL AS GEOGRAPHICALLY.
OUR NORTHERN WATERS DON/T LOOK TO START BEFORE SUNDAY NIGHT (WHICH
IS OUR FOURTH PERIOD AND TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO START AN ADVISORY);
LOWER (OR MAYBE EVEN ALL OF) DELAWARE BAY COULD NEED AN ADVISORY AS
WELL. ONCE IT STARTS, WAVEWATCH HAS ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEK. OBVIOUSLY, CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW AFTER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO AN
EXPECTED DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND PARTICULARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTRAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AVIATION STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS
PROBABLY UNDERDONE AT THIS EARLY STAGE, AND ANOMALIES MAY RISE TO
AROUND 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; THIS PERIOD IS BETWEEN NEW MOON AND FULL
MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE LAST
WEEK. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS,
BUT WITH THE SEVERE BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED WITH LAST WEEK`S
STORM, IT MAY BE THAT LOWER TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL HAVE AN EFFECT WHEN
THEY ORDINARILY WOULD NOT. IT IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED WHETHER THIS
MIGHT CAUSE ANY LEVEL OF TIDAL FLOODING, SO THE SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

000
FXUS61 KCTP 210742
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
242 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW AND A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
GULF SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS CHANGING...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE
OUT THE TROUGH BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
DESPITE THE HIGH...MOISTURE IN THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS KEEPING
A BROAD REGION OF LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE AS VIEWED IN THE 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE DATA. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOW THE COOLING AND BE
SLOW TO DISSIPATE. UPDATE GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND WITH THE CLOUDS STAYED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVR THE MTNS WITH PASSAGE OF TROF
ON SAT. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. WSW FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB WILL KEEP PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS FOR
NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TWD HIGHS SATURDAY SEVERAL
DEG ABV NORMAL...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S THROUGHOUT SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP 60% CLOUD COVER OR MORE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH (COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR) WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PENN WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW
LOW TEMPS IN THE M/U 30S OR ABOUT 3-6F ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO GEFS AND SREF INTRODUCED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GEFS
IS FASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PD BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL UPR LEVEL TROFS ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INFLUENCE ON PA. OVERALL HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST TROF...IN THE SRN STREAM...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST SATURDAY THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE NRN STREAM MEAN UPR RIDGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A
SMALLER...FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW ASSCD WITH THE SRN
TROF AND FORECASTS DRIER THAN PVS RUNS. GFS APPEARS AN OUTLIER WITH
A SIG WET FORECAST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
PA...AND SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PD FOLLOWING THE
MULTITUDE OF OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

THE NEW 18Z GEFS IS MORE IN LINE BUT STILL FASTER THAN THE 15Z SREF
SHOWING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST ENSEMBLE POPS ARE MONDAY DURING THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME TIMING ISSUES. LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
MONDAY DURING THE DAY AND UPPED THEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. PRETTY WEAK SYSTEM AND THE RAIN
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUE...WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT REACHING WRN ON WED AS
SUPPORTING CLOSED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO SERN CANADA. A STRONGER UPR
TROF/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH PA THANKSGIVING NIGHT...IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR
SHOPPERS NEXT FRIDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NW PA COULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW THUR-FRI AS 850 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY ARRIVING AT BFD ARND 06Z WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
CIGS TO ARND 1000-1500FT AGL. IFR CIGS ARRIVE AT JST/AOO/UNV/IPT
BTWN 08-12Z...BOUNCING BACK TO VFR CONDS BY 16-18Z WITH BETTER
MIXING. MDT SHUD HOLD AT VFR CONDS FROM WEAK DOWNSLOPING. BY 00Z
SUN LGT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNING NE SHUD KEEP VFR CONDS THRU EARLY
SUN WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS SUSQ-VALLEY AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR/VFR.
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR EARLY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER/RXR

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210723
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
223 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW
MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH  BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A
COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS TAF SITES NORTH OF KPIT. WITH KZZV
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BREAKING
CIGS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KDUJ AND KFKL BY 17Z SAT.

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210544
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS
TO COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR PERHAPS SOME
SUNNY BREAKS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT BASED ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.

HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. SREF MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM MOS AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10
DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
MODELS SHOW UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A COOLING TREND.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A COOLING TREND BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PRECIP TYPE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS TAF SITES NORTH OF KPIT. WITH KZZV
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BREAKING
CIGS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KDUJ AND KFKL BY 17Z SAT.

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPHI 210401
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1101 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS,
ALTHOUGH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE WARMER WATER WILL TEMPER
THIS SOME. LOW TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS
INTO THE 30S SEEM LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP WE
RAISED THEM A LITTLE. MIN TEMPS ALSO WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY AROUND
PHILADELPHIA AND SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 40 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DELISI/MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 210050
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
750 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND WILL BE HIGH CLOUDS. LOW
TEMPS WERE LOWERED A BIT ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPS INTO THE 30S
SEEM LIKELY TO OCCUR. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY AROUND
PHILADELPHIA AND SHOULD BE CLOSER TO 40 OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA

000
FXUS61 KCTP 210048
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW AND A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
GULF SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS CHANGING...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE
OUT THE TROUGH BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION.
DESPITE THE HIGH...MOISTURE IN THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS KEEPING
A BROAD REGION OF LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE AS VIEWED IN THE 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE DATA. THE CLOUDS SHOULD SLOW THE COOLING AND BE
SLOW TO DISSIPATE. UPDATE GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLOUDS THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND WITH THE CLOUDS STAYED
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVR THE MTNS WITH PASSAGE OF TROF
ON SAT. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. WSW FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB WILL KEEP PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS FOR
NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TWD HIGHS SATURDAY SEVERAL
DEG ABV NORMAL...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S THROUGHOUT SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP 60% CLOUD COVER OR MORE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH (COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR) WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PENN WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW
LOW TEMPS IN THE M/U 30S OR ABOUT 3-6F ABOVE NORMAL.

DUE TO GEFS AND SREF INTRODUCED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GEFS
IS FASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PD BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL UPR LEVEL TROFS ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INFLUENCE ON PA. OVERALL HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST TROF...IN THE SRN STREAM...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST SATURDAY THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE NRN STREAM MEAN UPR RIDGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A
SMALLER...FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW ASSCD WITH THE SRN
TROF AND FORECASTS DRIER THAN PVS RUNS. GFS APPEARS AN OUTLIER WITH
A SIG WET FORECAST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
PA...AND SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PD FOLLOWING THE
MULTITUDE OF OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

THE NEW 18Z GEFS IS MORE IN LINE BUT STILL FASTER THAN THE 15Z SREF
SHOWING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST ENSEMBLE POPS ARE MONDAY DURING THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SOME TIMING ISSUES. LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE 50 PERCENT RANGE
MONDAY DURING THE DAY AND UPPED THEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING. PRETTY WEAK SYSTEM AND THE RAIN
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUE...WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT REACHING WRN ON WED AS
SUPPORTING CLOSED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO SERN CANADA. A STRONGER UPR
TROF/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH PA THANKSGIVING NIGHT...IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR
SHOPPERS NEXT FRIDAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NW PA COULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW THUR-FRI AS 850 TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0C.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IR IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL MOISTURE ACROSS PA
AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER MOST CIGS ARE IN THE VFR CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY ARRIVING AT BFD ARND 06Z AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING CIGS TO ARND 1000-1500FT AGL. IFR CIGS ARRIVE AT
JST/AOO/UNV/IPT BTWN 07-12Z...BOUNCING BACK TO VFR CONDS BY
16-18Z WITH BETTER MIXING. MDT SHUD HOLD AT VFR CONDS FROM WEAK
DOWNSLOPING. BY 00Z SUN LGT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNING NE SHUD KEEP
VFR CONDS THRU EARLY SUN WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS SUSQ-VALLEY
AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR/VFR.
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR EARLY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210045 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
745 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS TO
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COULD PERSIST THROUGH  SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR
PERHAPS SOME SUNNY BREAKS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT BASED ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.

HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. SREF MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM MOS AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10
DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
MODELS SHOW UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A COOLING TREND.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A COOLING TREND BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PRECIP TYPE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS. LOW END VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY LATE...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT/HLG NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CLOUDS
FINALLY SCATTERING OUT LATE SAT AFTN...WITH SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS
EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.

RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCTP 210036
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
736 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. EASTERLY FLOW AND A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
GULF SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS CHANGING...THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN CANADA. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL CARVE
OUT THE TROUGH BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PICK UP
LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT SHALLOW) STRATO CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

AFTER A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...
A DECK OF BKN-OVC SHALLOW STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...
ASSOCIATED WITH APPCH OF A SECOND UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOST OF THE HIGHER RH VALUES ARE AOB 900 MB PER THE 20 KM
NAM...WITH HIGHER 850 MB MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS.

MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WILL BE QUITE UNIFORM AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVR THE MTNS WITH PASSAGE OF TROF
ON SAT. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. WSW FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB WILL KEEP PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS FOR
NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TWD HIGHS SATURDAY SEVERAL
DEG ABV NORMAL...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S THROUGHOUT SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP 60% CLOUD COVER OR MORE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH (COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR) WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PENN WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW
LOW TEMPS IN THE M/U 30S OR ABOUT 3-6F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PD BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL UPR LEVEL TROFS ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INFLUENCE ON PA. OVERALL HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST TROF...IN THE SRN STREAM...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST SATURDAY THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE NRN STREAM MEAN UPR RIDGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A
SMALLER...FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW ASSCD WITH THE SRN
TROF AND FORECASTS DRIER THAN PVS RUNS. GFS APPEARS AN OUTLIER WITH
A SIG WET FORECAST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
PA...AND SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PD FOLLOWING THE
MULTITUDE OF OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUE...WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT REACHING WRN ON WED AS
SUPPORTING CLOSED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO SERN CANADA. A STRONGER UPR
TROF/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH PA THANKSGIVING NIGHT...IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR
SHOPPERS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IR IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL MOISTURE ACROSS PA
AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER MOST CIGS ARE IN THE VFR CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY ARRIVING AT BFD ARND 06Z AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING CIGS TO ARND 1000-1500FT AGL. IFR CIGS ARRIVE AT
JST/AOO/UNV/IPT BTWN 07-12Z...BOUNCING BACK TO VFR CONDS BY
16-18Z WITH BETTER MIXING. MDT SHUD HOLD AT VFR CONDS FROM WEAK
DOWNSLOPING. BY 00Z SUN LGT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNING NE SHUD KEEP
VFR CONDS THRU EARLY SUN WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS SUSQ-VALLEY
AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR/VFR.
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR EARLY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER

000
FXUS61 KCTP 210007
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION
MONDAY...AS IT BECOMES LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BRISK AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PICK UP
LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT SHALLOW) STRATO CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

AFTER A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...
A DECK OF BKN-OVC SHALLOW STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...
ASSOCIATED WITH APPCH OF A SECOND UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOST OF THE HIGHER RH VALUES ARE AOB 900 MB PER THE 20 KM
NAM...WITH HIGHER 850 MB MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS.

MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WILL BE QUITE UNIFORM AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVR THE MTNS WITH PASSAGE OF TROF
ON SAT. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. WSW FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB WILL KEEP PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS FOR
NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TWD HIGHS SATURDAY SEVERAL
DEG ABV NORMAL...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S THROUGHOUT SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP 60% CLOUD COVER OR MORE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH (COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR) WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PENN WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW
LOW TEMPS IN THE M/U 30S OR ABOUT 3-6F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PD BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL UPR LEVEL TROFS ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INFLUENCE ON PA. OVERALL HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST TROF...IN THE SRN STREAM...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST SATURDAY THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE NRN STREAM MEAN UPR RIDGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A
SMALLER...FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW ASSCD WITH THE SRN
TROF AND FORECASTS DRIER THAN PVS RUNS. GFS APPEARS AN OUTLIER WITH
A SIG WET FORECAST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
PA...AND SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PD FOLLOWING THE
MULTITUDE OF OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUE...WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT REACHING WRN ON WED AS
SUPPORTING CLOSED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO SERN CANADA. A STRONGER UPR
TROF/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH PA THANKSGIVING NIGHT...IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR
SHOPPERS NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IR IMAGERY INDICATES CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL MOISTURE ACROSS PA
AIRFIELDS...HOWEVER MOST CIGS ARE IN THE VFR CATEGORY. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY ARRIVING AT BFD ARND 06Z AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHING CIGS TO ARND 1000-1500FT AGL. IFR CIGS ARRIVE AT
JST/AOO/UNV/IPT BTWN 07-12Z...BOUNCING BACK TO VFR CONDS BY
16-18Z WITH BETTER MIXING. MDT SHUD HOLD AT VFR CONDS FROM WEAK
DOWNSLOPING. BY 00Z SUN LGT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNING NE SHUD KEEP
VFR CONDS THRU EARLY SUN WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS SUSQ-VALLEY
AIRFIELDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR/VFR.
MON...MVFR LCL IFR. PSBL SHRA IN THE AFTN.
TUE...MVFR/IFR CIGS. SHRA IN THE AM.
WED...MVFR TO VFR EARLY.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 202142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
442 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE COMING FROM KENTUCKY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS TO
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COULD PERSIST INTO DAYTIME SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR
PERHAPS SOME SUNNY BREAKS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO 4-7 DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL BASED ON
RECENT BIAS CORRECTED GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.

HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. SREF MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM MOS AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10
DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
MODELS SHOW UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A COOLING TREND.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A COOLING TREND BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PRECIP TYPE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING SOUTH OF
KPIT. LOW END VFR WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME
LOWERING TO MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM PIT/HLG NORTH.
WEST WINDS 8-12 KT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 29 KT LATE THIS AFTN WILL
DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY...WITH LOWER CLOUDS FINALLY SCATTERING OUT SAT AFTN...WITH
SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY.

RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IS
PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST. BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FOR
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCTP 202053
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
353 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION
MONDAY...AS IT BECOMES LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BRISK AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PICK UP
LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT SHALLOW) STRATO CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

AFTER A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...
A DECK OF BKN-OVC SHALLOW STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...
ASSOCIATED WITH APPCH OF A SECOND UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOST OF THE HIGHER RH VALUES ARE AOB 900 MB PER THE 20 KM
NAM...WITH HIGHER 850 MB MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS.

MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WILL BE QUITE UNIFORM AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVR THE MTNS WITH PASSAGE OF TROF
ON SAT. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. WSW FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB WILL KEEP PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS FOR
NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TWD HIGHS SATURDAY SEVERAL
DEG ABV NORMAL...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S THROUGHOUT SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP 60% CLOUD COVER OR MORE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH (COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR) WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PENN WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW
LOW TEMPS IN THE M/U 30S OR ABOUT 3-6F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PD BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL UPR LEVEL TROFS ARE FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE THE CONUS IN BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAM FLOW WITH
VARYING LEVELS OF INFLUENCE ON PA. OVERALL HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FIRST TROF...IN THE SRN STREAM...IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
COAST SATURDAY THEN LIFT NE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE SUNDAY.
THE WAVE WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE NRN STREAM MEAN UPR RIDGE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A
SMALLER...FARTHER EAST SOLUTION OF THE SFC LOW ASSCD WITH THE SRN
TROF AND FORECASTS DRIER THAN PVS RUNS. GFS APPEARS AN OUTLIER WITH
A SIG WET FORECAST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
PA...AND SUCH HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THIS TIME PD FOLLOWING THE
MULTITUDE OF OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

AMPLIFICATION IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUE...WITH A WEAKENING SFC FRONT REACHING WRN ON WED AS
SUPPORTING CLOSED UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO SERN CANADA. A STRONGER UPR
TROF/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH PA THANKSGIVING NIGHT...IF
CURRENT TIMING HOLDS...WITH A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IN STORE FOR
SHOPPERS NEXT FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR VSBYS AND CIGS BASED AROUND 3.5 KFT AGL (WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
(KJST...KFIG AND KBFD) THRU EARLY TONIGHT AS THE MEAN 925-850 MB
FLOW (~3-5 KFT AGL) REMAINS OUT OF THE WNW. ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
PENN CLOUD...COVER WILL BE SCATTERED (WITH BASES OF 4-5 KFT AGL) FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME FROM 20Z THROUGH 06Z SAT.

SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

SOME MDT MECHANICAL TURBULENCE...RESULTING FROM A WEST TO NW SFC
WIND OF 10-15 KTS (GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES)...WILL AFFECT
FAP AND TAKEOFF AT ALL REGIONAL AIRWAYS UMTIL AROUND DUSK. WINDS
AFTERWARD...AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
NW AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR (AND SCT-BKN) CIGS THIS
EVENING... A DECK OF BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS TO HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AS A SECOND UPPER
TROF SLIDES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. INCLUDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
FOR IFR CIGS AT KJST AROUND THE TIME OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH
PASSAGE 8-12Z SATURDAY. KBFD SHOULD STAY WITHIN THE LOW END OF THE
MVFR CIG CATEGORY DURING THAT PERIOD.

VFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR STRATO CU CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE MEAN SFC-5 KFT FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO THE NNE. SFC WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR/VFR.

MON...MVFR. NUMEROUS SHRA. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT

000
FXUS61 KPHI 202015
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANY CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TOO.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO THE FCST
LOWS IN THE 30S LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

FCST MODELS SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVING NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BECOME VERY
STRONG, BUT IT DOES SEND ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LIKELY POPS FOR THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF TOTALS WILL MOST LIKELY
BE 1/2 INCH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING TRENDS FROM HPC WHICH GENERALLY WENT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWED
LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD MEAN DRYING TRENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY ON
TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONT FROM THE
WEST MOVE EAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

FOR THANKSGIVING, AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA AND DUE TO THIS COMBINATION THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW AND WE
GET INTO A COLD ADVECTION PATTERN FOR FRIDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

HPC TEMPS ARE GENLY REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING, THEN REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON SATURDAY. A HIGH BKN DECK FORMED
OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES BEFORE NOON, WITH A SCT DECK IN THE
SOUTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ONCE THE SUN GOES
DOWN. BASICALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH SEAS AROUND 4.5 FT AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE, SCA
CONDITIONS ARE BARELY BEING REACHED OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARD EVENING, THE SCA IN EFFECT
UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BOTH ON THE OCEAN
AND DELAWARE BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THIS LOW LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. THE
STRONGEST ONSHORE WINDS (30KT OR SO) WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES...
TIDAL ANOMALIES WITH THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 FOOT. WE`LL BE BETWEEN NEW MOON AND
FULL MOON, SO THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY LOW. UNDER NORMAL
CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS WOULDN`T POSE ANY PROBLEMS, BUT WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BEING WHAT THEY ARE FROM LAST WEEK`S STORM, WE`LL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES...MIKETTA

000
FXUS61 KCTP 201951
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
251 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND BECOME CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT. A STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION
MONDAY...AS IT BECOMES LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT. BRISK AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DEEP...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PICK UP
LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT SHALLOW) STRATO CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

AFTER A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...
A DECK OF BKN-OVC SHALLOW STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...
ASSOCIATED WITH APPCH OF A SECOND UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MOST OF THE HIGHER RH VALUES ARE AOB 900 MB PER THE 20 KM
NAM...WITH HIGHER 850 MB MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF
THE LAURELS AND NW MTNS.

MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WILL BE QUITE UNIFORM AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE MORE THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVR THE MTNS WITH PASSAGE OF TROF
ON SAT. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR
THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. WSW FLOW
ABOVE 700 MB WILL KEEP PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS FOR
NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA CONTINUES TO POINT TWD HIGHS SATURDAY SEVERAL
DEG ABV NORMAL...WITH MAXES RANGING FROM U40S ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S THROUGHOUT SUSQ VALLEY.

THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE
NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP 60% CLOUD COVER OR MORE
ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH (COMPARED TO 24 HOURS PRIOR) WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PENN WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW
LOW TEMPS IN THE M/U 30S OR ABOUT 3-6F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG-TERM LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER-
WISE...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVR PA SAT NITE/SUNDAY. A FAIR
AMT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH ABV SEASONAL
LVLS. 00Z NAEFS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE L/M50S.

A STORM SYSTEM GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
SLIDE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLDS AND A CHC FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PA...WITH DECREASING
POPS FARTHER WEST.

AFTER THAT...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT TUE/WED
TIME-FRAME...FOLLOWED BY SOME CHILLIER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR VSBYS AND CIGS BASED AROUND 3.5 KFT AGL (WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
(KJST...KFIG AND KBFD) THRU EARLY TONIGHT AS THE MEAN 925-850 MB
FLOW (~3-5 KFT AGL) REMAINS OUT OF THE WNW. ACROSS THE SE HALF OF
PENN CLOUD...COVER WILL BE SCATTERED (WITH BASES OF 4-5 KFT AGL) FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME FROM 20Z THROUGH 06Z SAT.

SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

SOME MDT MECHANICAL TURBULENCE...RESULTING FROM A WEST TO NW SFC
WIND OF 10-15 KTS (GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES)...WILL AFFECT
FAP AND TAKEOFF AT ALL REGIONAL AIRWAYS UMTIL AROUND DUSK. WINDS
AFTERWARD...AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO
NW AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR (AND SCT-BKN) CIGS THIS
EVENING... A DECK OF BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS TO HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AS A SECOND UPPER
TROF SLIDES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. INCLUDED A 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP
FOR IFR CIGS AT KJST AROUND THE TIME OF THE SECONDARY TROUGH
PASSAGE 8-12Z SATURDAY. KBFD SHOULD STAY WITHIN THE LOW END OF THE
MVFR CIG CATEGORY DURING THAT PERIOD.

VFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR STRATO CU CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE MEAN SFC-5 KFT FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO THE NNE. SFC WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 8 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...MVFR/VFR.

MON...MVFR. NUMEROUS SHRA. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUE...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT

000
FXUS61 KPHI 201712
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1212 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOW
BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE FRONT HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND RAPID CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
IN ITS WAKE. PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.

PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.

WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE JUST UNDER 5 FT AT BUOY 009 AROUND NOON. HOWEVER, WINDS
WERE STILL GUSTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND OR SLIGHTLY OVER 25
KT SO THE SCA WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM FOR BOTH THE OCEAN AND THE
BAY. AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
LATER TODAY AND WE WILL REEVALUATE THE SCA AS TIME GOES ON.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE
COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER/
AVIATION...MIKETTA
MARINE...MIKETTA

000
FXUS61 KCTP 201632
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1132 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COAST BY MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THE ENTIRE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRY/COOLER AIR WILL PROVIDE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD (ALBEIT SHALLOW) STRATO CU THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW...BRIEF/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASE WILL BE
4-5 KFT AGL THROUGH DUSK (BEFORE DIPPING TO UNDER 3 KFT AGL
THROUGH TONIGHT).

EVEN THE SUSQ VALLEY LIKELY TO BECOME MCLDY FOR A TIME THIS AFTN
WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MODEL 900MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM THE M/U40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN PENN...
TO BETWEEN 54-58F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
AFTER A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...
A DECK OF BKN-OVC SHALLOW STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SAT...
ASSOCIATED WITH APPCH OF A SECOND UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MEAGER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW -SHRA (OR MORE LIKELY SPRINKLES) OVR THE
MTNS WITH PASSAGE OF TROF LATE TONIGHT/SAT. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
ENSURE MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PA IN A
RELATIVELY MILD AIRMASS FOR NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA SUGGESTS HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL WITH MAXES RANGING FROM
U40S ALLEGHENIES...TO M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG-TERM LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER-
WISE...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVR PA SAT NITE/SUNDAY. A FAIR
AMT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH ABV SEASONAL
LVLS. 00Z NAEFS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE L/M50S.

A STORM SYSTEM GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
SLIDE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLDS AND A CHC FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PA...WITH DECREASING
POPS FARTHER WEST.

AFTER THAT...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT TUE/WED
TIME-FRAME...FOLLOWED BY SOME CHILLIER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS (WITH VFR VSBYS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN (KJST...KFIG AND KBFD) THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MEAN 925-850 MB FLOW (~3-5 KFT AGL) REMAINS OUT OF THE WNW.

SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

SOME MDT MECHANICAL TURBULENCE...RESULTING FROM A WEST TO NW SFC
WIND OF 10-15 KTS (GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES)...WILL AFFECT
FAP AND TAKEOFF AT ALL REGIONAL AIRWAYS.

AFTER A PERIOD OF MAINLY VFR (AND SCT-BKN) CIGS THIS EVENING...
A DECK OF BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AS A SECOND UPPER TROF SLIDES
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR W. VFR E.
SUN...MVFR/VFR.
MON...MVFR. NUMEROUS SHRA.
TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201615
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1115 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE COMING FROM KENTUCKY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS TO THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH RECENT RUC MODEL OUTPUT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE
LOWLEVEL COLD POOL EXITING EASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...EXPECT RELATED SURFACE LAYER INSTABILITY INDUCED CLOUDS
TO ERODE ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES
WHICH KEEP TEMPERATURES 3-6 DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY AND MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS
AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10 DEG F
WARMER THAN NORMAL.  AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. COULD HAVE A RELATIVE BREAK FROM RAIN
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TNGT. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES TO
THE NORTH. LOW END VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTN...WITH AREAS OF MVFR ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING SCATTERED BY SATURDAY.

RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPHI 201305
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MOVES
GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE FRONT HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE AND RAPID CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
IN ITS WAKE. PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR WORKING
ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.

PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.

WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE WATER
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/
SHORT TERM...O`HARA/
LONG TERM...STAUBER/
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI

000
FXUS61 KCTP 201204
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
704 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED JUST
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COAST BY MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL PUSHING EAST OF PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF FRONT...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALREADY
PRODUCING NUMEROUS BRKS IN THE OVERCAST EAST OF THE MTNS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DAY WILL DAWN MSUNNY ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS
WILL CREATE PERSISTENT STRATOCU OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TDY. COLD
TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WILL RESULT IN
ISOLD/SCT SHRA OVER THE NWRN MTNS...BUT THESE SHOULD DRY UP BEFORE
REACHING TOO FAR EAST OF ROUTE 219. EVEN THE SUSQ VALLEY LIKELY TO
BECOME MCLDY FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS REACHED.
MODEL 900MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO THE
M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
A DECK OF BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH APPCH OF A SECOND
UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MEAGER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW -SHRA OVR THE MTNS
WITH PASSAGE OF TROF FRI NITE/SAT. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE
MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY. WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD
AIRMASS FOR NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL WITH MAXES RANGING FROM U40S ALLEGHENIES...TO
M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG-TERM LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER-
WISE...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVR PA SAT NITE/SUNDAY. A FAIR
AMT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH ABV SEASONAL
LVLS. 00Z NEAFS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE L/M50S.

A STORM SYSTEM GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
SLIDE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLDS AND A CHC FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PA...WITH DECREASING
POPS FARTHER WEST.

AFTER THAT...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME...FOLLOWED BY SOME CHILLIER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY MVFR FLYING CONDS WILL PERSIST IN HIGHER TERRAIN THRU
ABOUT MIDDAY AS TAIL OF UPPER LOW SLIPS QUICKLY EASTWARD. LLVL
FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO FILTER IN...WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

A DECK OF BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS TO
HIGHER TERRAIN LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A SECOND UPPER TROF
SLIDES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR W. VFR E.
SUN...MVFR/VFR.
MON...MVFR. NUMEROUS SHRA.
TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR

000
FXUS61 KPHI 200946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MOVES
GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE
SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW JERSEY AT
0830Z...WAS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REFLECTIVITIES,
CONVECTION, AND RAIN AMOUNTS WERE MORE GENEROUS THAN ONE WOULD
HAVE THOUGHT FOR MID NOVEMBER, PROBABLY DUE TO THE MORE VIGOROUS
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION GENERATED BY THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE
MODEST INSTABILITY. IN ANY CASE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES OVER (MAINLY EASTERN) NEW
JERSEY WILL DRIBBLE OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE FORCING EXITS BY MID MORNING. THE BETTER FORCING WHICH
PRODUCED THE CONVECTION WAS ALREADY OUT OF OUR AREA.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS
MORNING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. MILD
TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT AROUND
SUNRISE, AND THEN RECOVER TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.

PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.

WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE WATER
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM...O`HARA/
LONG TERM...STAUBER/
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI

000
FXUS61 KCTP 200859
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
359 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED JUST
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COAST BY MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL PUSHING EAST OF PA EARLY
THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF FRONT...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALREADY
PRODUCING NUMEROUS BRKS IN THE OVERCAST EAST OF THE MTNS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE DAY WILL DAWN MSUNNY ACROSS THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE MTNS
WILL CREATE PERSISTENT STRATOCU OVR THE ALLEGHENIES TDY. COLD
TEMPS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WILL RESULT IN
ISOLD/SCT SHRA OVER THE NWRN MTNS...BUT THESE SHOULD DRY UP BEFORE
REACHING TOO FAR EAST OF ROUTE 219. EVEN THE SUSQ VALLEY LIKELY TO
BECOME MCLDY FOR A TIME THIS AFTN WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS REACHED.
MODEL 900MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M40S ALLEGHENIES...TO THE
M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DECK OF BKN STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT ASSOCIATED WITH APPCH OF A SECOND
UPPER TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MEAGER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW -SHRA OVR THE MTNS
WITH PASSAGE OF TROF FRI NITE/SAT. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENSURE
MOST SOLID CLOUD COVER OVR THE ALLEGHENIES AND MOST BRKS ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY. WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP PA IN A RELATIVELY MILD
AIRMASS FOR NOVEMBER. NAEFS DATA SUGGESTS HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE
SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL WITH MAXES RANGING FROM U40S ALLEGHENIES...TO
M50S SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG-TERM LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER-
WISE...AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVR PA SAT NITE/SUNDAY. A FAIR
AMT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH ABV SEASONAL
LVLS. 00Z NEAFS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE L/M50S.

A STORM SYSTEM GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
SLIDE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLDS AND A CHC FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PA...WITH DECREASING
POPS FARTHER WEST.

AFTER THAT...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME...FOLLOWED BY SOME CHILLIER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY POOR FLYING CONDS WILL PERSIST THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS VARYING BUT PERSISTING AT MOST AIRFIELDS. LLVL FLOW
WILL TURN W/NW AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. LLVL MOISTURE
DIMINISHES BTWN 14-18Z FRI...THUS EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLY VFR CIGS OF
5KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR NW. VFR SE.
SUN...VFR. MVFR POSS SE.
MON-TUE...MVFR. SCT SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER/RXR

000
FXUS61 KPHI 200830
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND MOVES GRADUALLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND IS LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
AT 08Z...WAS MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REFLECTIVITIES,
CONVECTION, AND RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MORE GENEROUS THAN ONE
WOULD THINK FOR MID NOVEMBER, PROBABLY DUE TO THE MORE VIGOROUS
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION GENERATED BY THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND THE
MODEST INSTABILITY. IN ANY CASE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING STAGE
RIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING. UNTIL THEN, THOUGH, RAIN CHANCES (WITH
THUNDER EAST) WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL DRIBBLE OFF
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE FOR THE EASTERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE FORCING EXITS BY MID MORNING. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
SHOWERS, AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE LEAD TO
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS, ONLY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND
IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING MID AND
LATE MORNING, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE SUNRISE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT AROUND
SUNRISE, AND THEN RECOVER TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
HIGHS TODAY. NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN GENERAL, HPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. THE MODELS
HAVE CHEWED ON THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKE A DOG WITH A NEW BONE FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, BUT
THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TIRED OF THIS PLAYTHING AND DIVERGED FROM
ITS PREVIOUS THINKING, FAILING TO DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AND
INSTEAD BRINGING A WEAK LOW THROUGH OUR AREA MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
IS A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THIS SCENARIO, AS WELL AS FROM ITS FORMER
COASTAL LOW THINKING, AND SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST
MONDAY. SO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, WE WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITIES SOUTH FOR NOW FOR MONDAY.

ON TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A
COLD FRONT IS SEEN TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION, WE STILL MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE
TO A TROUGH PERSISTING ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN
FREE.

PRECIPITATION TYPES SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

HPC TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.

WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE WATER
TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN
WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM...O`HARA /
LONG TERM...STAUBER /
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200824
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
324 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
LATE ON SUNDAY...RETURNING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN RIDGES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RUC 250MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A 90KT JET ACROSS WRN PA
PUSHING NE OF THE AREA. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON WITH A TROF AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE
HURON WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SEWD ACROSS
CNTRL NY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE AL/MS BORDER. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
NWD ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS. ASIDE FROM A FEW SPRINKLES
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR IN WRN PA...SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED NE OF THE AREA. US SAT WV IMAGERY IS INDICATING A DRY SWATH
OF AIR ADVECTING NEWD INTO THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINNING
TO BREAK IN SERN OH.

TODAY...THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DRYING OUT CONDITIONS. WITH A DRY SLOT
ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING ACROSS E-CNTRL OH AND N-CNTRL WV. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALONG WITH
WRN PA BEING IN A NWRLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL MAKE FOR A
CLOUDY AFTN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH CLOUD COVERAGE
DECREASING INTO N-CNTRL WV. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
TODAY...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 ACROSS THE CWA AND IN
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE ERN RIDGES.

TONIGHT...WITH MORE OF A SWRLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST...CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP TDS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING DESPITE THE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...LOWS ARE FCST CLOSER TO MAV
GUIDANCE...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FCST REMAINS DRY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTN AS THE HIGH PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT...TEMPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE TROF CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN TEXAS WILL BECOME A CLOSED LOW AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND INTO THE MS VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS THE NEXT CHC FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THE
GFS PHASES THE LOW INTO A MUCH BROADER TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WEAK SFC LOW CROSSING THE AREA EARLY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NAM ADVECTS A SHORT WAVE TROF WITH A SFC TROF
RIDING NEWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. HAVE SIDED CLOSER WITH THE NAM
SOLUTION...AS IT SEEMS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
THUS...BEST CHC OF RAINFALL IS FCST CLOSEST TO THE SFC TROF AXIS
ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. COULD HAVE A RELATIVE BREAK FROM RAIN
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS MORNING AND PROGRESS OVER NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT HAS COMPLETED A MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AND SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE.  HOWEVER, GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AS STRATOCUMULUS FORM IN THE COOLER
AIR/RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER THE REGION ON
THE FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW.  BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL SUPPORT IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD THEN PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

RESTRICTIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND BRING
SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS AS MID WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCTP 200717
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
217 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
THIS WEEKEND. A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE VIRGINIA COAST BY MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...WITH THE
TREND BEING FOR PRECIP TO DIMINISH OVERALL. I TRIMMED BACK THE
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS SHUD CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

I LEFT FCST LOWS PRETTY MUCH AS IS...MAINLY FROM THE LOW 40S OVER
THE NW TO UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE E OF THE SUSQ RIVER MAIN STEM BY 07Z.
THE CROSS-LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW (AND GLANCING BLOW BY A POCKET OF
COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C) LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WILL CREATE ISOLD/SCT SHRA OVER THE NWRN MTNS...BUT THESE
SHOULD DRY UP BEFORE REACHING TOO FAR EAST OF ROUTE 219. THE SE
WILL - OF COURSE - CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY. THIS AND DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WILL HELP THE SE GET WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
FRI...WHILE THE MORE CLOUDY NW WILL BE RIGHT ON NORMS. A DECK OF
MAINLY BKN STRATO/ALTO CU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT DUE TO THE APPCH OF A SECOND
UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND A FEW TO SVRL DEG F
WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U40S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE MID AND U50S
IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG-TERM LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER-
WISE...AS A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

A STORM SYSTEM GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
SLIDE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLDS AND A CHC FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PA...WITH DECREASING
POPS FARTHER WEST.

AFTER THAT...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME...FOLLOWED BY SOME CHILLIER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY POOR FLYING CONDS WILL PERSIST THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS VARYING BUT PERSISTING AT MOST AIRFIELDS. LLVL FLOW
WILL TURN W/NW AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN. LLVL MOISTURE
DIMINISHES BTWN 14-18Z FRI...THUS EXPECT MVFR POSSIBLY VFR CIGS OF
5KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR NW. VFR SE.
SUN...VFR. MVFR POSS SE.
MON-TUE...MVFR. SCT SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER/RXR

000
FXUS61 KPHI 200709
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
209 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY AND MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY AND MAY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
FOUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS ONE...AND EVEN
MINUS TWO ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A CHANCE WILL BE KEPT IN UNTIL MORNING
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
RECENTLY IMPROVED THERE, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF LOW
CLOUDS IMPINGING ON THE HILLS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO SOUTH AND FINALLY WEST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT A FEW LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START TO LOWER AFTER THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE
ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
WERE INDICATED FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR AND SOME
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS.
THE TAFS ARE CARRYING CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/, ALTHOUGH ANY ONE OF
THEM MAY REQUIRE AMENDING TO ADD A TSTM.

WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FROPA, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST, VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT.
WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY JUST ABOVE THE 10 TO 20
KNOT RANGE, AND THEY THEN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DUSK. THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE AROUND 5 FT AND WINDS WERE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE BAY BY 12Z AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WE WILL GET SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MIX TO
H925 IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT /AT LEAST INITIALLY/, AND THE
AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AFTER IT
MOVES THROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOT
THAT EXCITING AND THE H925 WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED MUCH ABOVE 25
KNOTS. WE WILL LET THE ADVISORY STAND UNTIL NOON AND WILL ADD THE
BAY TO IT AS A WEST NORTHWEST WIND LIKES TO FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE THE
WATER TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A BIT OF A DECREASE
IN WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST
AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY ON MONDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/RPW/
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/RPW/
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI

000
FXUS61 KPHI 200357
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1057 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY AND MOVE GRADUALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST
SUNDAY AND MAY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
FOUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS ONE...AND EVEN
MINUS TWO ON THE 00Z RUN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN
THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A CHANCE WILL BE KEPT IN UNTIL MORNING
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE
RECENTLY IMPROVED THERE, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF LOW
CLOUDS IMPINGING ON THE HILLS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO SOUTH AND FINALLY WEST AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT STRONGER AND
PERHAPS SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT A FEW LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
START TO LOWER AFTER THE RAIN AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH BEFORE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
OVER THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE
ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT
A LOT OF COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY. MORE CLOUDS
WERE INDICATED FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS THAT SHOWED VFR CONDITIONS
AT ACY/MIV, MVFR AT PHL/ILG AND CONTINUING IFR AT ABE/RDG/TTN. A
BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH AREAS FROM PHL WESTWARD.
WITHIN THIS AREA WERE SOME TSTMS THAT WERE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO SCATTERED TO THE EAST OF THIS MAIN AREA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR S OF PHL/ACY/MIV BUT
IFR TO THE WEST OF THERE. DUE TO THESE OBSERVED CONDITIONS, THE
TAFS HAVE CONDITIONS LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. HOWEVER, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOME OF THE LOWER CIG/VSBYS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL SITES WITH IFR FCST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW FROM 09-12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI
MORNING AND AFTN WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE WIND WILL VEER
FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WE
WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAY AT THIS TIME.

AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATER SHOULD DECREASE A BIT.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA / RPW
NEAR TERM.../ O`HARA / RPW
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO / STAUBER
MARINE...IOVINO / STAUBER

000
FXUS61 KCTP 200326
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1026 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING AN
END TO THE SHOWERS BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR
THIS WEEKEND. A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE VIRGINIA COAST BY MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...WITH THE
TREND BEING FOR PRECIP TO DIMINISH OVERALL. I TRIMMED BACK THE
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS SHUD CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

I LEFT FCST LOWS PRETTY MUCH AS IS...MAINLY FROM THE LOW 40S OVER
THE NW TO UPPER 40S OVER THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE E OF THE SUSQ RIVER MAIN STEM BY 07Z.
THE CROSS-LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW (AND GLANCING BLOW BY A POCKET OF
COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C) LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WILL CREATE ISOLD/SCT SHRA OVER THE NWRN MTNS...BUT THESE
SHOULD DRY UP BEFORE REACHING TOO FAR EAST OF ROUTE 219. THE SE
WILL - OF COURSE - CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY. THIS AND DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WILL HELP THE SE GET WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
FRI...WHILE THE MORE CLOUDY NW WILL BE RIGHT ON NORMS. A DECK OF
MAINLY BKN STRATO/ALTO CU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT DUE TO THE APPCH OF A SECOND
UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND A FEW TO SVRL DEG F
WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U40S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE MID AND U50S
IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG-TERM LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER-
WISE...AS A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

A STORM SYSTEM GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
SLIDE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLDS AND A CHC FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PA...WITH DECREASING
POPS FARTHER WEST.

AFTER THAT...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME...FOLLOWED BY SOME CHILLIER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POOR FLYING CONDS WILL PERSIST THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT MOST AIRFIELDS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRFIELDS COULD SEE VLIFR CIGS
IN WAKE OF ENDING PRECIP. SHRA ENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
AIRFIELDS BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING PRECIP FURTHER EAST FOR SUSQ-
VALLEY AIRFIELDS UNTIL 06Z. THEN EXPECT PATCHY DZ ISO SHRA. LLVL
FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL 10-12Z FRI TURNING W/NW AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO WESTERN AIRFIELDS FIRST THEN FURTHER
EAST AFT 16Z FRI. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORE OF WINDS
OFF OF THE DECK AT 1500FT AGL OF 30KTS FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS
THIS LLVL WS WILL LINGER THRU 06Z FOR MANY AIRFIELDS.

LLVL MOISTURE DIMINISHES BTWN 14-17Z FRI...THUS EXPECT MVFR
POSSIBLY VFR CIGS OF 5KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR NW. VFR SE.
SUN...VFR. MVFR POSS SE.
MON-TUE...MVFR. SCT SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 200124 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
824 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING INTO
CENTRAL PA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INDICATE THE SHOWERS LIMITED
TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TNGT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ADDED IN
MENTION OF SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UL WAVE SWINGS AROUND
SOUTHERN EDGE OF 50H LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. ECMWF REMAINS
THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE LOW TRACK...WITH THE GFS CLOSER
TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WILL INCLUDE MINOR CHANCES OF
SHWRS SUNDAY AFTN ALONG THE RIDGES OF WV/MD...WITH JUST SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE PULLING FAR ENOUGH NORTHWESTWARD
TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BRING PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST THAN ECMWF.

A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. COULD HAVE A RELATIVE BREAK FROM RAIN
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SCATTERED
POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED OVERNIGHT.
LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES. VIS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE VFR LEVEL OVERNIGHT AS DRIER LL AIR IS MOVING IN
BEHIND SFC FRONT. HOWEVER...RAIN OR SPRINKLES WITH NO VIS
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AFT 06Z.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME DRYING WITH MAINLY VFR
WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPHI 200102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
HAVE BECOME LESS CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE
CONVECTION THAT WAS EVIDENT EARLIER THIS EVENING IN OUR WESTERN
AREAS IS NOW GONE, SO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE
FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AND END TO THE RAINS
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE. WINDS WILL BE SERLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN TURN SRLY EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER FROPA WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER THE REMAINING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PULL AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AREAS FRI MORNING...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY OVER
THE AREA. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY ACROSS THE ZONES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
COLD AIR WAITING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH...SO TEMPERATURES FRI WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATES AND BEGIN TO
SPREAD MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST SUN. I HAVE INDICATED MORE CLOUDS
FOR THE AREA AND A SLGT CHC OR CHC OF RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS. THERE
IS A HIGHER CHC FOR RAINS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. THE WAVE
APPEARS TO BE MOVING QUICK ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WE FOLLOWED THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
ENSEMBLE FCST. THE NEW GFS ALSO SUPPORTS THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED TOO. IN GENERAL...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OVER THE
OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH THE THREAT OF RAIN
INTO MONDAY MORNING THEN POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. ON TUESDAY,
WE SHOULD SEE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING.
HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, WE STILL
MIGHT HAVE SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO A TROUGH LINGERING
ALOFT BUT MOST OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

PTYPE SHOULD ALL BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LATE THU
NIGHT, IT MIGHT GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE POCONOS FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

HPC TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS THAT SHOWED VFR CONDITIONS
AT ACY/MIV, MVFR AT PHL/ILG AND CONTINUING IFR AT ABE/RDG/TTN. A
BAND OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTH THROUGH AREAS FROM PHL WESTWARD.
WITHIN THIS AREA WERE SOME TSTMS THAT WERE WEST OF ALL TAF SITES.
SOME SHOWERS WERE ALSO SCATTERED TO THE EAST OF THIS MAIN AREA.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY MVFR S OF PHL/ACY/MIV BUT
IFR TO THE WEST OF THERE. DUE TO THESE OBSERVED CONDITIONS, THE
TAFS HAVE CONDITIONS LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH 03 OR 04Z. HOWEVER, AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, SOME OF THE LOWER CIG/VSBYS
SHOULD SPREAD INTO ALL SITES WITH IFR FCST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NW FROM 09-12Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY AFTER THAT TO VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRI
MORNING AND AFTN WITH SCATTERED STRATOCU.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNS FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, THE WIND WILL VEER
FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WE
WILL NOT RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAY AT THIS TIME.

AS THE AIR TEMPERATURE RISES CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPERATURE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATER SHOULD DECREASE A BIT.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE UP
THE COAST AND IT SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY
ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS FOR LATE SUNDAY AND FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA/RPW
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/RPW
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...STAUBER
AVIATION...IOVINO/STAUBER
MARINE...IOVINO

000
FXUS61 KCTP 200003
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
703 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OF
VARYING INTENSITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTER A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR THIS WEEKEND. A STORM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME LOCATED JUST
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA COAST BY MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
BRING SOME RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF PA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE ENTIRE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AXIS OF A FAIRLY STRONG...SOUTHERLY LLJ OF 40-45 KTS WILL MOVE NE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND SUSQ VALLEY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NEAR SFC LAYER REMAINS QUITE
STABLE...THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND EAST TO SE FLOW
WITH TEMPS IN THE U40S TO MID 50S. THIS SETUP WAS RESULTING IN A
SFC BASED AND MIXED LAYER LIFTED INDEX OF +3 TO +6 FROM THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND NCENT MTNS - EAST.

A TONGUE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY CENTERED AROUND 850MB WAS NOSING
NWD TWD THE SCENT PENN/MD BORDER...AND WAS PUSHING FURTHER NORTH
FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO NEAR I-80 AT 18Z. A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA
WERE NOTED IN THESE LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THIS INSTABILITY ALOFT HAS HELPED EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS...ALONG WITH THE STRONGER REFLECTIVITY CORES OF 35 TO 45
DBZ. THIS TREND TWD HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (AND EVEN
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE SUSQ
VALLEY REGION AND OUR NE MTN ZONES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL BY LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN 6 AND
9 TENTHS OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 1.25
INCHES.

TEMPS WILL VARY BY A JUST FEW DEG F (FROM THEIR 18Z VALUES) ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH DUSK.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH TWD THE WRN MTNS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND REACH THE CENTRAL MTNS AROUND 03-04Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL SLIDE TO THE E OF THE SUSQ RIVER MAIN STEM BY 07Z.
THE CROSS-LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW (AND GLANCING BLOW BY A POCKET OF
COLD MID LEVEL AIR WITH 700 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C) LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WILL CREATE ISOLD/SCT SHRA OVER THE NWRN MTNS...BUT THESE
SHOULD DRY UP BEFORE REACHING TOO FAR EAST OF ROUTE 219. THE SE
WILL - OF COURSE - CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY. THIS AND DOWNSLOPE
WARMING WILL HELP THE SE GET WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
FRI...WHILE THE MORE CLOUDY NW WILL BE RIGHT ON NORMS. A DECK OF
MAINLY BKN STRATO/ALTO CU CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT DUE TO THE APPCH OF A SECOND
UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND A FEW TO SVRL DEG F
WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO U40S ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE MID AND U50S
IN THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG-TERM LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER-
WISE...AS A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

A STORM SYSTEM GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL
SLIDE UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY
CLDS AND A CHC FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WX. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PA...WITH DECREASING
POPS FARTHER WEST.

AFTER THAT...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT TUE/WED
TIMEFRAME...FOLLOWED BY SOME CHILLIER TEMPS THAN WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POOR FLYING CONDS WILL PERSIST THRU MIDDAY FRI WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS
AT MOST AIRFIELDS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRFIELDS COULD SEE VLIFR CIGS
IN WAKE OF ENDING PRECIP. SHRA ENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
AIRFIELDS BY 03Z...WITH LINGERING PRECIP FURTHER EAST FOR SUSQ-
VALLEY AIRFIELDS UNTIL 06Z. THEN EXPECT PATCHY DZ ISO SHRA. LLVL
FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY UNTIL 10-12Z FRI TURNING W/NW AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO WESTERN AIRFIELDS FIRST THEN FURTHER
EAST AFT 16Z FRI. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A CORE OF WINDS
OFF OF THE DECK AT 1500FT AGL OF 30KTS FROM THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS
THIS LLVL WS WILL LINGER THRU 06Z FOR MANY AIRFIELDS.

LLVL MOISTURE DIMINISHES BTWN 14-17Z FRI...THUS EXPECT MVFR
POSSIBLY VFR CIGS OF 5KFT AGL.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR NW. VFR SE.
SUN...VFR. MVFR POSS SE.
MON-TUE...MVFR. SCT SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER