[top]
000
FXUS61 KBOX 230510
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1210 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM EASTERN MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK INTO
NOVA SCOTIA BY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS HIGH PRES PUSHES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND
AT 04Z. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MAY WORK ASHORE
ACROSS THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL WORK N OVERNIGHT. NOTING SOME RADAR RETURNS ON THE NE MOSAIC
RADAR...BUT REMAINS WELL S OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND FOR NOW.
NOTED THAT TEMPS WERE MILDER WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD ALREADY REACHED...
WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS N CENTRAL MA/S NH WHERE SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH IN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES STARTED OFF CLEAR. NE WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...
ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST
ERROR. 22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THAT SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...
BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST NOTED ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...E-NE WINDS CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. NOTED
THE FERRY ON THE NANTUCKET SOUND CROSSING HAD GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH
SEAS UP TO 4 FT. BROUGHT THE SMALL CRAFTS UP FOR THE S SOUNDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY
OF GALES FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/EVT/NMB
MARINE...BELK/EVT/NMB
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222341
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
641 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS INITIALLY OVER BOS TO PVD AND SE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS NW MA/FAR SW NH...WHILE CONDITIONS LOWER TO
MVFR-IFR CIGS TO THE S AND E. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY RAIN
WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY OF
GALES FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222145
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD. AREAS MVFR CIGS EAST OF
THAT LINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLWM-KPVD-KMVY...DUE TO MARINE STRATUS
MOVING ONSHORE.
TONIGHT...BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN
AND FOG...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY OF
GALES FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222125
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. QUITE
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AS NAM INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2
PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FORECAST...ALSO KEEPING IN MIND GFS INDICATES A
SHORT WAVE. BUT LOW LEVEL LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD. AREAS MVFR CIGS EAST OF
THAT LINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLWM-KPVD-KMVY...DUE TO MARINE STRATUS
MOVING ONSHORE.
TONIGHT...BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN
AND FOG...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY OF
GALES FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221943
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
243 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN. COLDER
BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY...MODELS NOW ALL IN LINE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY
EVENING. 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERED OUTLIER WITH THE LOW TOO FAR OFF THE
COAST AND LITTLE RAINFALL OVER LAND. ECMWF TIMING AND PRECIP WAS THE
BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST. NEW 06Z GFS RUN NOW IS MORE IN LINE...EVEN
THOUGH ITS LOW IS STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS...IT NOW
HAS RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE CT/RI/MA BORDER BY MON EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTHWEST AND 90 PERCENT SOUTHEAST.
IN GENERAL...0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ESE FLOW AT 925 MB OVERRUNNING
LESSER NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE IS
ALONG EASTERN MA COAST. GFS SHOWS MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE OPEN WATERS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.
STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE THEY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHES 90-100 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDY FORECAST. REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN NW HALF OF AREA BECAUSE GFS SHOWED A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD BE LIGHT IF ANYTHING
DUE TO DRYING AIR ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 50 TO 55.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...
MORE OF THE SAME...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS...BUT IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THE CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST. 00Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO 973 MB OVER
NEW ENGLAND COMPLETE WITH LOTS OF THUNDER ETC. 06Z GFS CONTINUES THIS
FORECAST WITH 974 MB. THESE WERE CONSIDERED TOO DEEP AS ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 998 MB WHICH IS WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF 993
MB. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WOULD FALL. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE ADDED 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TO
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN GGEM MODEL
IS DRY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM
THAT A STORM WILL FORM...AND EVEN LOWER AS TO ITS PLACEMENT.
SATURDAY...BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...EXPECT RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE
SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD. AREAS MVFR CIGS EAST OF
THAT LINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLWM-KPVD-KMVY...DUE TO MARINE STRATUS
MOVING ONSHORE.
TONIGHT...BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN
AND FOG...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND FOG. LOCALLY
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER BUT
MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET TO NOVA SCOTIA WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND
GOOD GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER
THIS TIME PERIOD. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF MARGINAL GALE FORCE
GUSTS MAINLY VERY LATE MON NIGHT OR ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY DIRECTION PERHAPS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATER THU.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221603
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1103 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO QUEBEC WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...THEN EAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN. COLDER
BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES ACROSS NY STATE INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
TODAY. THIS WILL INSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OCEAN AND MOVING SOUTHWEST. IT WILL BE A CONTEST
BETWEEN THE MARINE LAYER INTRUDING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND THE LATE
NOVEMBER SUNSHINE. CURRENT THINKING IS CLOUDS WILL LINGER PRIMARILY
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST MA AND RI FOR TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLE...BUT DID MAKE A FEW
TWEAKS TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...SLOWLY INCREASING THE E-NE
WIND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW
LOW CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40...THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WIND...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK NE. MODELS TRY TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE N...FEEL THE DRY AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD THE PRECIP OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...
AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NIGHTFALL OR AFTER ACROSS N MA/S NH. HAVE
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRECIP
WORKING UP THE COAST.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THE APPROACHING
PRECIP...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...
BUT THIS WILL STILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS NOW ALL IN LINE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
RGEM IS FASTEST OF 00Z MODELS RUNS WITH PRECIP IN RI AND CT BEFORE
7 PM MON. 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERED OUTLIER WITH THE LOW TOO FAR OFF
THE COAST AND LITTLE RAINFALL OVER LAND. ECMWF TIMING AND PRECIP WAS
THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST. NEW 06Z GFS RUN NOW IS MORE IN
LINE...EVEN THOUGH ITS LOW IS STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...IT NOW HAS RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE CT/RI/MA BORDER BY
MON EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTHWEST AND
90 PERCENT SOUTHEAST.
IN GENERAL...0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ESE FLOW AT 925 MB OVERRUNNING
LESSER NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE IS
ALONG EASTERN MA COAST. GFS SHOWS MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE OPEN WATERS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.
STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE THEY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHES 90-100 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDY FORECAST. REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN NW HALF OF AREA BECAUSE GFS SHOWED A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD BE LIGHT IF ANYTHING
DUE TO DRYING AIR ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 50 TO 55.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...
MORE OF THE SAME...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS...BUT IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THE CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST. 00Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO 973 MB OVER
NEW ENGLAND COMPLETE WITH LOTS OF THUNDER ETC. 06Z GFS CONTINUES THIS
FORECAST WITH 974 MB. THESE WERE CONSIDERED TOO DEEP AS ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 998 MB WHICH IS WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF 993
MB. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WOULD FALL. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE ADDED 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TO
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN GGEM MODEL
IS DRY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM
THAT A STORM WILL FORM...AND EVEN LOWER AS TO ITS PLACEMENT.
SATURDAY...BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...EXPECT RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE
SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM KLWM-KPVD DUE TO AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS MOVING ONSHORE.
TONIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
ALONG THE COAST S AND E OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD...MAINLY NEAR OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE E-NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN AND
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER BUT
MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASING WIND AND ONSHORE FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
MAINLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRES WORKS UP THE COAST...WILL SEE E-NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...MAINLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MOST OF THE
WATERS...SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE S SOUNDS.
MONDAY...E-NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO NOVA SCOTIA WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND GOOD GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
WATERS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS MAINLY VERY LATE MON NIGHT OR ON TUESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY DIRECTION PERHAPS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATER THU.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...EVT/GAF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221231
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO QUEBEC WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...THEN EAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN. COLDER
BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES ACROSS NY STATE INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
TODAY. THIS WILL INSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF
THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MOVING IN ALONG THE
COAST. THE RGEM TENDS TO HANDLE CLOUDS WELL. THIS TREND HAS CONTINUED
ON THE 06Z RUNS...SEEN BEST ON 925 MB RH FIELDS.
HAVE UPDATED THE SKY COVER CONDITIONS TO INDICATE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MA AND RI LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
AND THEN OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT.
AS LIGHT WINDS VEER AROUND TO N-NE...WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FORECASTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...WHICH CONTINUED TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...SLOWLY INCREASING THE E-NE
WIND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW
LOW CLOUD COVER OVERSPREADING THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40...THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WIND...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK NE. MODELS TRY TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE N...FEEL THE DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD THE PRECIP OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...
AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NIGHTFALL OR AFTER ACROSS N MA/S NH. HAVE
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRECIP
WORKING UP THE COAST.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THE APPROACHING
PRECIP...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...
BUT THIS WILL STILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS NOW ALL IN LINE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
RGEM IS FASTEST OF 00Z MODELS RUNS WITH PRECIP IN RI AND CT BEFORE
7 PM MON. 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERED OUTLIER WITH THE LOW TOO FAR OFF
THE COAST AND LITTLE RAINFALL OVER LAND. ECMWF TIMING AND PRECIP WAS
THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST. NEW 06Z GFS RUN NOW IS MORE IN
LINE...EVEN THOUGH ITS LOW IS STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...IT NOW HAS RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE CT/RI/MA BORDER BY
MON EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTHWEST AND
90 PERCENT SOUTHEAST.
IN GENERAL...0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ESE FLOW AT 925 MB OVERRUNNING
LESSER NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE IS
ALONG EASTERN MA COAST. GFS SHOWS MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE OPEN WATERS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.
STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE THEY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHES 90-100 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDY FORECAST. REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN NW HALF OF AREA BECAUSE GFS SHOWED A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD BE LIGHT IF ANYTHING
DUE TO DRYING AIR ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 50 TO 55.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...
MORE OF THE SAME... GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS... BUT IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THE CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST. 00Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO 973 MB OVER
NEW ENGLAND COMPLETE WITH LOTS OF THUNDER ETC. 06Z GFS CONTINUES THIS
FORECAST WITH 974 MB. THESE WERE CONSIDERED TOO DEEP AS ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 998 MB WHICH IS WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF 993
MB. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WOULD FALL. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE ADDED 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TO
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN GGEM MODEL
IS DRY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM
THAT A STORM WILL FORM...AND EVEN LOWER AS TO ITS PLACEMENT.
SATURDAY... BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...EXPECT RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE
SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
ALONG THE COAST S AND E OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD...MAINLY NEAR OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE E-NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS... RAIN AND
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER BUT
MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI... LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASING WIND AND ONSHORE FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
MAINLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRES WORKS UP THE COAST...WILL SEE E-NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...MAINLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MOST OF THE
WATERS...SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE S SOUNDS.
MONDAY...E-NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO NOVA SCOTIA WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND GOOD GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
WATERS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS MAINLY VERY LATE MON NIGHT OR ON TUESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY DIRECTION PERHAPS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATER THU.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT/GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT/GAF
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...EVT/GAF
MARINE...EVT/GAF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221052
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
552 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO QUEBEC WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...THEN EAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFFSHORE
THANKSGIVING DAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF MORE RAIN. COLDER
BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS A FEW OF THE NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEY AREAS. CAN ALSO SEE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM S
VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND ALL ACROSS NY STATE/PA ON THE SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT. ONCE THE SUN RISES...NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO
STICK AROUND TOO LONG...EVEN WITH LOW SUN ANGLE.
HIGH PRES ACROSS NY STATE INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
TODAY. THIS WILL INSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF
THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...HAS BEEN HINTING
AT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MOVING IN ALONG THE COAST. THE
RGEM TENDS TO HANDLE CLOUDS WELL. ALSO NOTED HIGH RH VALUES AND LOW
CLOUDS ON THE NAM BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. HAVE ADDED ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE MA...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW.
AS LIGHT WINDS VEER AROUND TO N-NE...WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FORECASTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...WHICH CONTINUED TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...SLOWLY INCREASING THE E-NE
WIND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. RGEM CONTINUES TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG INTO COASTAL AREAS...AND EVEN FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC...WILL ALSO START TO SEE
MOISTURE WORK UP THE COAST AS WELL. HAVE FORECASTED INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40...THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WIND...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK NE. MODELS TRY TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE N...FEEL THE DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD THE PRECIP OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...
AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NIGHTFALL OR AFTER ACROSS N MA/S NH. HAVE
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRECIP
WORKING UP THE COAST.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THE APPROACHING
PRECIP...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...
BUT THIS WILL STILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
MODELS NOW ALL IN LINE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MONDAY EVENING TO NEAR NOVA SCOTIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY EVENING.
RGEM IS FASTEST OF 00Z MODELS RUNS WITH PRECIP IN RI AND CT BEFORE
7 PM MON. 00Z GFS WAS CONSIDERED OUTLIER WITH THE LOW TOO FAR OFF
THE COAST AND LITTLE RAINFALL OVER LAND. ECMWF TIMING AND PRECIP WAS
THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST. NEW 06Z GFS RUN NOW IS MORE IN
LINE...EVEN THOUGH ITS LOW IS STILL FARTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...IT NOW HAS RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE CT/RI/MA BORDER BY
MON EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60 PERCENT NORTHWEST AND
90 PERCENT SOUTHEAST.
IN GENERAL...0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MOIST ESE FLOW AT 925 MB OVERRUNNING
LESSER NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE IS
ALONG EASTERN MA COAST. GFS SHOWS MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE OPEN WATERS...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS.
DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.
STUCK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE THEY WERE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT
WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
LOW PULLS OUT TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHES 90-100 PERCENT WED AFTERNOON.
HAVE GONE WITH CLOUDY FORECAST. REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT IN NW HALF OF AREA BECAUSE GFS SHOWED A WEAK VORTICITY MAX
MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD BE LIGHT IF ANYTHING
DUE TO DRYING AIR ALOFT. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE FROM 50 TO 55.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...
MORE OF THE SAME... GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS... BUT IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL INTENSIFY THE CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST. 00Z GFS DEEPENS IT TO 973 MB OVER
NEW ENGLAND COMPLETE WITH LOTS OF THUNDER ETC. 06Z GFS CONTINUES THIS
FORECAST WITH 974 MB. THESE WERE CONSIDERED TOO DEEP AS ECMWF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH 998 MB WHICH IS WEAKER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN OF 993
MB. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS STORM WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WOULD FALL. RIGHT NOW...WE HAVE ADDED 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS TO
THE FORECAST FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT FRI NIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN GGEM MODEL
IS DRY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM
THAT A STORM WILL FORM...AND EVEN LOWER AS TO ITS PLACEMENT.
SATURDAY... BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD...EXPECT RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE TOO WARM AT THE
SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
ALONG THE COAST S AND E OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD...MAINLY NEAR OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE E-NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS... RAIN AND
FOG. LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER BUT
MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI... LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASING WIND AND ONSHORE FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
MAINLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRES WORKS UP THE COAST...WILL SEE E-NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...MAINLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MOST OF THE
WATERS...SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE S SOUNDS.
MONDAY...E-NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE PASSING FROM
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET TO NOVA SCOTIA WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FLOW AND GOOD GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR
WATERS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF BRIEF
MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS MAINLY VERY LATE MON NIGHT OR ON TUESDAY
OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY DIRECTION PERHAPS BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATER THU.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...EVT/GAF
MARINE...EVT/GAF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221013
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK STATE INTO QUEBEC WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT...THEN EAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THREATENS THE REGION WITH MORE RAIN VERY LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...
EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS A FEW OF THE NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEY AREAS. CAN ALSO SEE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM S
VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND ALL ACROSS NY STATE/PA ON THE SATELLITE
FOG PRODUCT. ONCE THE SUN RISES...NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO
STICK AROUND TOO LONG...EVEN WITH LOW SUN ANGLE.
HIGH PRES ACROSS NY STATE INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE
TODAY. THIS WILL INSURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. SOME OF
THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN REGIONAL GEM...HAS BEEN HINTING
AT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MOVING IN ALONG THE COAST. THE
RGEM TENDS TO HANDLE CLOUDS WELL. ALSO NOTED HIGH RH VALUES AND LOW
CLOUDS ON THE NAM BUFKIT CROSS SECTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. HAVE ADDED ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE MA...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW.
AS LIGHT WINDS VEER AROUND TO N-NE...WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE
COOLER SIDE TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FORECASTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...WHICH CONTINUED TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES
OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...SLOWLY INCREASING THE E-NE
WIND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. RGEM CONTINUES TO PUSH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG INTO COASTAL AREAS...AND EVEN FURTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC...WILL ALSO START TO SEE
MOISTURE WORK UP THE COAST AS WELL. HAVE FORECASTED INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40...THOUGH MOS
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ONSHORE WIND...MAINLY S OF THE MASS PIKE.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW
STARTS TO SLOWLY WORK NE. MODELS TRY TO BRING PRECIP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE CANADIAN GEM MODELS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE N...FEEL THE DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE REGION WILL HOLD THE PRECIP OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...
AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NIGHTFALL OR AFTER ACROSS N MA/S NH. HAVE
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS MOISTENS UP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE PRECIP
WORKING UP THE COAST.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE AND THE APPROACHING
PRECIP...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...
BUT THIS WILL STILL BE UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN DILEMMA IS HOW CLOSE TO
THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS AND ALSO ITS INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT EVEN
IF THE SOUTHERN AND WEAKEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST SOME RAIN WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN EFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THE GEM/NAM CERTAINLY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING MAINLY
RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE VERY WET GEM/NAM
BUT IT DOES LEAN IN MORE OF THEIR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAN IN THE ECMWF/S DIRECTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS
TRACK RECORD IN THIS TIMEFRAME. WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. IN FACT...LATER SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS INTO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE
REGION.
DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COOL
AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE
LOWER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WHAT
EVER FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID VARIETY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SPINNING OFF
THE COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKSGIVING DAY MAY TURN OUT DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AGAIN...TIMING AND FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER...THIS
MAY BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO WARM SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT.
SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/PASSING RAIN SHOWER SO WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG
DEAL.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS MOVING IN
ALONG THE COAST S AND E OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD...MAINLY NEAR OR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE E-NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...MAINLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASING WIND AND ONSHORE FETCH...EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 5 FT
MAINLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.
TONIGHT...AS LOW PRES WORKS UP THE COAST...WILL SEE E-NE WINDS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...MAINLY ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON MOST OF THE
WATERS...SO HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS LATE TONIGHT FOR THE S SOUNDS.
MONDAY...E-NE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER
THIS TIME. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF MARGINAL GALE
AT SOME POINT.
THANKSGIVING...WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 212352
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
652 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THREATENS THE REGION
WITH MORE RAIN VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES EARLY
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT OVERNIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH
EVEN SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA. THE WARM SPOT SHOULD BE THE
URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON WITH LOWS AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S.
ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT
LEAST SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS AND ALSO ITS INTENSITY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH
SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE SOUTHERN AND WEAKEST
SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN EFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THE GEM/NAM CERTAINLY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING MAINLY
RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE VERY WET GEM/NAM
BUT IT DOES LEAN IN MORE OF THEIR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAN IN THE ECMWF/S DIRECTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS
TRACK RECORD IN THIS TIMEFRAME. WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. IN FACT...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS INTO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE REGION.
DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COOL
AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE
LOWER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WHAT
EVER FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID VARIETY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SPINNING OFF
THE COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKSGIVING DAY MAY TURN OUT DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AGAIN...TIMING AND FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO WARM SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT.
SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/PASSING RAIN SHOWER SO WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG
DEAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD AFFECT THE BAF/BDL TERMINALS
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...MAINLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED UPON THE BUILDING
SEAS...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER THIS
TIME. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF MARGINAL GALE
AT SOME POINT.
THANKSGIVING...WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
000
FXUS61 KBOX 212027
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THREATENS THE REGION
WITH MORE RAIN VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
THE THICKEST CLOUDS NOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. FARTHER
WEST...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BANKED UP AGAINST THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT
LEAST SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS AND ALSO ITS INTENSITY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH
SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE SOUTHERN AND WEAKEST
SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN EFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THE GEM/NAM CERTAINLY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING MAINLY
RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE VERY WET GEM/NAM
BUT IT DOES LEAN IN MORE OF THEIR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAN IN THE ECMWF/S DIRECTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS
TRACK RECORD IN THIS TIMEFRAME. WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. IN FACT...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS INTO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE REGION.
DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COOL
AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE
LOWER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WHAT
EVER FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID VARIETY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SPINNING OFF
THE COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKSGIVING DAY MAY TURN OUT DRY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AGAIN...TIMING AND FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO WARM SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT.
SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/PASSING RAIN SHOWER SO WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG
DEAL.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...MAINLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED UPON THE BUILDING
SEAS...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD
GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER THIS
TIME. SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF MARGINAL GALE
AT SOME POINT.
THANKSGIVING...WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
000
FXUS61 KBOX 211856
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY
THANKSGIVING...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
THE THICKEST CLOUDS NOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. FARTHER
WEST...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BANKED UP AGAINST THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.
SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.
WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERABLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON
000
FXUS61 KBOX 211535
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY THANKSGIVING BEFORE A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH
EXISTING FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THERE. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.
SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.
WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.
TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED AT 11 AM. WANT TO
GET ONE MORE ROUND OF BUOY REPORTS TO BE SURE. WINDS ARE NOT THE
CONCERN AT THIS POINT...BUT THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERABLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/RLG/THOMPSON
000
FXUS61 KBOX 210958
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY THANKSGIVING BEFORE A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT 08Z...
FOR NOW. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA/NJ ON
THE IR SATELLITE LOOP...HEADING E IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY...THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TODAY...WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR.
WITH THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...UPWARDS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.
SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SHREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.
WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.
TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL REPORTING SWELLS AT 5-6 FT. ONLY KEPT
IT GOING FOR THE MORNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY VEER TO MORE NW-N LATER TODAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERBLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/RLG/THOMPSON
000
FXUS61 KBOX 210850
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT 08Z...
FOR NOW. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA/NJ ON
THE IR SATELLITE LOOP...HEADING E IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY...THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TODAY...WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR.
WITH THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...UPWARDS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE. THIS
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY
FORECAST.
MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST. WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS
GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE.
MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL. GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON
NIGHT. GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT. NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT
DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE
POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT.
TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH
CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST. WE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO
FRI. BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVY PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.
TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUN NIGHT...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST.
MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN. VFR NORTH OF THE
PIKE.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL REPORTING SWELLS AT 5-6 FT. ONLY KEPT
IT GOING FOR THE MORNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY VEER TO MORE NW-N LATER TODAY.
TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES BUT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.
MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE. LOWERED
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.
WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/RLG
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