[top]
000
FXUS64 KMEG 230544 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...
RADAR AND SOME AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BIT OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3
MILES. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG ATTM. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO MENTION
PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
BORGHOFF
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHILE
UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NASHVILLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETROGRADED BACK
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN/DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THINK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES TO OCCUR.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID SOUTH MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AS THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER FROM THE 12Z
MODEL RUN. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE
HERE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z ECMWF/GFS LONG
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 AT BEST ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
MVFR CIGS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT DISCUSSION TIME...WITH
IFR CIGS NOTED ON KMEM...KTUP AND KUOX METARS. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A MOISTURE AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MS RIVER DELTA...WHILE
DRIER AIR WAS EDGING IN FROM FROM MIDDLE TN/NORTH AL INTO KMKL
AND KTUP. KJBR WAS ON THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE.
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE 00Z TAF PACKAGES...OTHER
THAN TO CARRY OVER TEMPO DRIZZLE FROM EARLIER AMENDMENTS. IT
APPEARS THAT ALL TAF SITES WITH HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF IFR
OVERNIGHT. IFR WILL REMAIN LIKELY KMEM AND PERHAPS KJBR...AS THESE
TERMINALS REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 48 63 49 62 / 10 0 10 50
MKL 47 56 46 60 / 10 10 10 40
JBR 48 61 46 60 / 0 10 10 50
TUP 49 59 46 65 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMRX 230522
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1222 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. CIG AND VIS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT IN THIS REGIME...SO
CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN USUAL. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PREDOMINATELY
MVFR CONDITIONS AT CHA AND MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT TYS...WITH MVFR
MAINLY EARLY AT TRI FOLLOWED BY VFR. HOWEVER...LOWER CIGS/VIS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KMEG 230348 AAB
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
RADAR AND SOME AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BIT OF FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPING...WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1 TO 3
MILES. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT...SO NOT
EXPECTING DENSE FOG ATTM. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO MENTION
PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE...OTHERWISE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHILE
UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NASHVILLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETROGRADED BACK
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN/DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THINK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES TO OCCUR.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID SOUTH MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AS THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER FROM THE 12Z
MODEL RUN. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE
HERE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z ECMWF/GFS LONG
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 AT BEST ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER MIDDLE TN...PULLING QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AT DISCUSSION TIME. LOW STRATUS OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
MS WAS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH... AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE OZARKS. EXPECT IFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 08Z. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT...HAVE KEPT CIGS NEAR THE UPPER
END OF IFR.
MVFR STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY...WITH
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER
THE AREA.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 47 63 49 62 / 10 0 10 50
MKL 46 56 46 60 / 10 10 10 40
JBR 47 61 46 60 / 0 10 10 50
TUP 48 59 46 65 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 230235
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
935 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...RADAR INDICATING HEAVIER RAIN HAS PUSHED INTO
NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS A BIT IN THE SOUTH AND
KEEP LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN AREAS...BUT MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND THE REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 55 46 65 46 / 50 20 0 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 54 45 65 47 / 50 30 10 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 54 44 64 47 / 50 30 10 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 53 41 62 42 / 70 30 20 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
[top]
000
FXUS64 KOHX 230135
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
735 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
RAIN HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY LAST HOUR OR SO. WILL UPDATE TO
LOWER POPS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MAG
000
FXUS64 KMEG 222357 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
557 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHILE
UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NASHVILLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETROGRADED BACK
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN/DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THINK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES TO OCCUR.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID SOUTH MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AS THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER FROM THE 12Z
MODEL RUN. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE
HERE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z ECMWF/GFS LONG
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 AT BEST ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER MIDDLE TN...PULLING QUICKLY
NORTHEAST AT DISCUSSION TIME. LOW STRATUS OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
MS WAS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH... AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE OZARKS. EXPECT IFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS WILL
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AFTER 08Z. GIVEN THE
LACK OF A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT...HAVE KEPT CIGS NEAR THE UPPER
END OF IFR.
MVFR STRATUS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY...WITH
WEAKENING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER
THE AREA.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 47 63 49 62 / 10 0 10 50
MKL 46 56 46 60 / 10 10 10 40
JBR 47 61 46 60 / 0 10 10 50
TUP 48 59 46 65 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 222353
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
653 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. EXPECTING LIFR CONDITIONS AT CHA AND IFR
CONDITIONS AT TYS AND TRI TONIGHT. IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
000
FXUS64 KOHX 222332
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
532 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ROTATING IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR AS
IT WORKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST WATER VAPOR
(23Z) WOULD PLACE CENTER OF ROTATION OVER COFFEE COUNTY TN. LOTS
OF LOW ETAGE CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL WORK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. EXPECT A CONTINUED DETERIORATION OF CIGS AND
VSBYS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AT BOTH BNA AND CSV WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY IN NRN AL MOVING NEWD. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD UNTIL THE
NEXT H5 WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NGT. THEN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TUE NGT AND WED AS THE WAVE TRANSITS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THEN A MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON WED/THU. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM THE +4C
TO AROUND -5C BY FRI AM. PRECIP WILL BE RAIN OR SHOWERS ON WED NGT
AND THU...BUT COULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE THU NGT.
A STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SAT AS COLD AIR
POURS INTO THE MIDSTATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FRI TO SUN. CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY
PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE ERN US. THE
DAY10 GFS IS SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE SFC RIDGE MOVING IN ON SUN WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C ON WED(12/02).
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 222146
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
346 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST WHILE
UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NASHVILLE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETROGRADED BACK
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN/DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THINK LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE/WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES TO OCCUR.
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID SOUTH MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AS THE NAM IS THE SLOW OUTLIER FROM THE 12Z
MODEL RUN. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SEEM REASONABLE
HERE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. ALSO KEPT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z ECMWF/GFS LONG
RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THANKSGIVING DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE RETURN OF CLOUDS
ACROSS AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 AT BEST ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE 12Z GFS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS POINT.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
AT KMEM...CHANGES WERE MADE TO BRING IN MVFR CEILINGS MUCH FASTER
AS THEY WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SITE WITH KOLV REPORTING BKN023
AT 1650Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AFTER 10Z...BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE...DID NOT MENTION.
AT KJBR AND KMKL...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KMKL 19-23Z AND KJBR 23-03Z. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z AT BOTH SITES WITH A BETTER
CHANCE AT KMKL...BUT DID NOT MENTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE. KEPT VCSH AT KMKL THROUGH 04Z THINKING -SHRA WILL
STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS SITE.
AT KTUP...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR 01-06Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 11Z...BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. KEPT VCSH THROUGH
02Z...BUT DOUBT -SHRA WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT SITE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 47 63 49 62 / 10 0 10 50
MKL 46 56 46 60 / 10 10 10 40
JBR 47 61 46 60 / 0 10 10 50
TUP 48 59 46 65 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 222123
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
323 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY IN NRN AL MOVING NEWD. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD UNTIL THE
NEXT H5 WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NGT. THEN ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TUE NGT AND WED AS THE WAVE TRANSITS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THEN A MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS ON WED/THU. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM THE +4C
TO AROUND -5C BY FRI AM. PRECIP WILL BE RAIN OR SHOWERS ON WED NGT
AND THU...BUT COULD TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE THU NGT.
A STRONG SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SAT AS COLD AIR
POURS INTO THE MIDSTATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FRI TO SUN. CPC 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY
PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE ERN US. THE
DAY10 GFS IS SHOWING ANOTHER LARGE SFC RIDGE MOVING IN ON SUN WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C ON WED(12/02).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 46 55 47 61 / 30 20 10 20
CLARKSVILLE 44 56 45 61 / 20 20 10 30
CROSSVILLE 43 52 43 58 / 50 30 10 10
COLUMBIA 46 56 46 61 / 30 20 10 20
LAWRENCEBURG 46 56 45 62 / 30 10 10 20
WAVERLY 45 56 46 61 / 20 10 10 30
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
JLM
000
FXUS64 KMRX 222028
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
328 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THE SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY MONDAY EVENING AS PER MODEL AND FORECAST TRENDS. FORECAST AREA
SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT TO BE IN A DECENT POSITION FOR FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS DOWN SLOPING
SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT SOME OF THE PRECIP IN THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TYS TO SEE OCCASIONAL RAIN UNTIL AROUND 05-06Z.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE IN SPITE OF FAVORABLE DOWN
SLOPING OCCURRING...AS FEEL THAT NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD PUSH PRECIP AREA EAST AND
NORTHEAST WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AS WEDGING SITUATION TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST SETS UP TONIGHT.
MOST OF MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL BE LOWERING AND DROPPING OUT MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 09-12Z MONDAY. WITH A STRONGER WEDGE
SITUATION SETTING UP TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA... WILL CONTINUE WITH
AT LEAST 30 POPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY...ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS PER GFS/NAM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO BE ALONG NC COAST BY
MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND IT TO THE
NW INTO SW VA AND EXTREME NE TN. SO CONTINUED A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE
AND RAIN SHOWERS EXTREME NE. TUESDAY HIGHER PRESSURE AND RIDGING
ALOFT WILL KEEP AREA DRY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP CLOUDS IN
MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE PARTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR NOW. MODELS BRING
WEAK IMPULSE FROM THE NW THROUGH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. THEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES WITH
MUCH COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. VALLEY AREAS MAY GET SOME SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE GROUND MAY BE TOO WARM
FOR ANY ACCUMULATION WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE STILL COOL IN THE NORTHEAST AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH POSSIBLE SNOW COVER LEFT OVER.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 55 46 65 46 / 80 20 0 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 54 45 65 47 / 70 30 10 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 46 54 44 64 47 / 60 30 10 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 53 41 62 42 / 60 30 20 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TT
000
FXUS64 KOHX 221808 AAA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1208 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
BROAD...WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NE ACROSS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GRADUAL N PUSH OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING STEADY BUT ONLY LIGHT RA TO BOTH BNA
AND CSV SITES BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT SLOW BUT STEADY DETERIORATION
OF CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR AT CSV BY MID AFTERNOON AND BNA BY EARLY EVENING.
CIGS/VSBYS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TO IFR AT CSV EARLY THIS EVENING.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED IN THE MS/AL BORDER AREA JUST NORTH OF MERIDIEN
MS AND IS MOVING NNE. MODELS EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE
MIDDLE APPALACHIANS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MOVEMENT IS BEING
URGED ON BY AN H5 SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND IS JUST SOUTH OF A CROSSVILLE-
MCMINNVILLE-COLUMBIA-LINDEN LINE. THIS RAIN PATTERN MAY SPREAD A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.
CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE SEEMS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
000
FXUS64 KMRX 221748 AAC
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...WILL BE KEEPING VSBY CONDITIONS AT CHA DOWN SOMEWHAT
WITH -SHRA/RA IN VICINITY AND CONTINUING AS OF 1730Z ON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ACCOUNT FOR GLANCING AREA OF -SHRA/RA MOVING
THROUGH TYS BETWEEN 18-19Z...BUT FEEL THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN UNTIL CLOSE TO 23Z. AS FAR AS TRI IS CONCERNED...CURRENT
TRENDING INDICATES THAT MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BECOME PREVALENT
UNTIL AROUND 05Z. HAVE LOWERED VSBY/CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...MORE IN
LINE WITH NAM GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASED VSBY/CEILINGS TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON MONDAY.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TT
000
FXUS64 KMEG 221742
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1034 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW NEAR MOBILE
ALABAMA WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/UPPER AIR PROFILERS
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HUNTINGDON/JACKSON TN TO OXFORD MS.
305-310K SURFACES FROM WRF/GFS/RUC SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES.
WILL UPDATE GRIDS FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND ADJUST OTHER
WEATHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 249 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
IT WAS CLOUDY OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
50S.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MS/AL MOVING NORTHEAST. VERY LIGHT RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER
NORTHEAST MS...TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS
DEPICTED BY THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR OVER N MS...AND PERHAPS EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MEMPHIS. IF IT
DOES EXTEND TO MEMPHIS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT I.E.
LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH.
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN RIVER AND NE MS THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. AGAIN...LIGHT RAIN MAY EXTEND
FARTHER WEST INTO MEMPHIS AND PERHAPS JACKSON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS THE MIDSOUTH COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING.
AC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
AT KMEM...CHANGES WERE MADE TO BRING IN MVFR CEILINGS MUCH FASTER
AS THEY WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SITE WITH KOLV REPORTING BKN023
AT 1650Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO IFR AFTER 10Z...BUT WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE...DID NOT MENTION.
AT KJBR AND KMKL...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KMKL 19-23Z AND KJBR 23-03Z. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z AT BOTH SITES WITH A BETTER
CHANCE AT KMKL...BUT DID NOT MENTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE. KEPT VCSH AT KMKL THROUGH 04Z THINKING -SHRA WILL
STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS SITE.
AT KTUP...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR 01-06Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER 11Z...BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. KEPT VCSH THROUGH
02Z...BUT DOUBT -SHRA WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT SITE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 62 48 62 47 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 60 45 60 45 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 61 44 62 45 / 10 0 10 10
TUP 56 48 63 47 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 221634
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1034 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW NEAR MOBILE
ALABAMA WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/UPPER AIR PROFILERS
INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM HUNTINGDON/JACKSON TN TO OXFORD MS.
305-310K SURFACES FROM WRF/GFS/RUC SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO DECREASED RAIN CHANCES.
WILL UPDATE GRIDS FOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND ADJUST OTHER
WEATHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
IT WAS CLOUDY OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
50S.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MS/AL MOVING NORTHEAST. VERY LIGHT RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER
NORTHEAST MS...TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS
DEPICTED BY THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR OVER N MS...AND PERHAPS EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MEMPHIS. IF IT
DOES EXTEND TO MEMPHIS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT I.E.
LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH.
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN RIVER AND NE MS THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. AGAIN...LIGHT RAIN MAY EXTEND
FARTHER WEST INTO MEMPHIS AND PERHAPS JACKSON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS THE MIDSOUTH COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING.
AC
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI (TUP TAF SITE) TODAY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT MKL LATER TODAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO
BUILD BACK INTO WEST TENNESSEE.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS RAIN PULLS EAST. CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
MEM...MKL...AND JBR. WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT TUP AFTER 02Z
MON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 62 48 62 47 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 60 45 60 45 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 61 44 62 45 / 10 0 10 10
TUP 56 48 63 47 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 221627
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1027 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED IN THE MS/AL BORDER AREA JUST NORTH OF MERIDIEN
MS AND IS MOVING NNE. MODELS EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE NEWD INTO THE
MIDDLE APPALACHIANS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MOVEMENT IS BEING
URGED ON BY AN H5 SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE WRN PLAINS.
THE LIGHT RAIN PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SRN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND IS JUST SOUTH OF A CROSSVILLE-
MCMINNVILLE-COLUMBIA-LINDEN LINE. THIS RAIN PATTERN MAY SPREAD A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.
CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE SEEMS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18
000
FXUS64 KMRX 221511 AAB
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1011 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...WEAK SURFACE LOW ANALYZED MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST IN
GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF SOUTH ALABAMA COAST AS PER 14Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. STEADY LARGE AREA OF SHRA/RA MOVING NORTH AND NORTHWEST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS OF LATEST 88-D AND IR SATELLITE IMAGES AS
OF 15Z. WILL BE ADJUSTING PRECIP AND CLOUD FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
MOVEMENT OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST
AND DOWN SLOPE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT SOME OF THE SHRA/RA FROM TRI CITIES
AND INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. WILL INCREASE POPS IN TYS AREA TO
OCCASIONAL AND TAPER OFF TOWARD VIRGINIA BORDER/TRI CITIES AREA.
TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AS FAR AS THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONCERNED...AND WILL NOT BE MAKING MANY CHANGES OTHERWISE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 46 55 46 65 / 90 80 20 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 45 54 45 65 / 50 70 30 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 46 54 44 64 / 50 60 30 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 41 53 41 62 / 30 60 30 20 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TT
000
FXUS64 KMEG 221134
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
IT WAS CLOUDY OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
50S.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MS/AL MOVING NORTHEAST. VERY LIGHT RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER
NORTHEAST MS...TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS
DEPICTED BY THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR OVER N MS...AND PERHAPS EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MEMPHIS. IF IT
DOES EXTEND TO MEMPHIS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT I.E.
LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH.
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN RIVER AND NE MS THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. AGAIN...LIGHT RAIN MAY EXTEND
FARTHER WEST INTO MEMPHIS AND PERHAPS JACKSON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS THE MIDSOUTH COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING.
AC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI (TUP TAF SITE) TODAY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE
INCLUDED VCSH AT MKL LATER TODAY AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO
BUILD BACK INTO WEST TENNESSEE.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING AS RAIN PULLS EAST. CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN
AVERAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT
MEM...MKL...AND JBR. WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT TUP AFTER 02Z
MON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 62 48 62 47 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 60 45 60 45 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 61 44 62 45 / 10 0 10 10
TUP 56 48 63 47 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 221117
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
617 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST. LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT EXPECT
PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE IT TO NORTHERN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS AND PRECIP AT
TYS AND TRI FOR A WHILE. WILL CARRY MVFR CONDITIONS AT CHA STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON...LOWERING TO IFR LATE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT AT TYS AND TRI.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 220921
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING CLOSED SFC AND UL LOWS OVER LA/SERN MS VICINITY
WITH DEEP MOISTURE/WDSPRD SHWRS WORKING UP INTO CENTRL MS/AL. ISOLD
SHWRS ON NERN FRINGE NOW JUST S OF THE CWA.
UL LOW EXPECTED TO OPEN UP EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE SFC LOW FILLS
LATER TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE EXPECTED SLIDE FURTHER N BUT MORE FAVORABLE
UVV REMAINS JUST S THIS MORNING THEN MOVES RAPIDLY E LATER TODAY.
THE SE CWA SEEMINGLY BEST CHC FOR PCPN TODAY...WITH POPS FALLING
BACK TOWARD THE NW. TONIGHT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK UVV REMAIN
OVER THE E AND HENCE PCPN CHCS LESSENING BACK TOWARD THE W ONCE
AGAIN. ON MONDAY...SECONDARY ML/UL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION
AS VERY WEAK INVERTED SFC/LL TROUGH OF SORTS HOLDS ACROSS THE
PLATEAU. THESE FEATURES WILL HELP MOISTURE TO BE SLOW TO VACATE
THUS WILL KEEP SMALL POPS RUNNING...ESPECIALLY E.
LATE TUE AFTERNOON...CLOSED UL LOW SET TO DROP OVER THE MO VICINITY
AND HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE FELT IN THE EXTREME W LATE IN THE DAY BUT MORE
SO AREA-WIDE TUES NIGHT...AND EARLY WED E...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
MODERATE MOISTURE SOURCE AND ML JET STREAK MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SMALL CHC OF PCPN WED NIGHT AS
WEAK LL BOUNDARY WORKS ACROSS...BUT CHCS INCREASE SOME THU AS
SHARP UL AXIS FROM DEEP LOW AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE FOLLOW.
LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE MAY BRING SHOWERS TO THE FAR N/E THU
NIGHT... WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH A SNOW FLAKE OR TWO AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS CANADIAN AIR SETTLES IN AND GOOD DYNAMICAL COOLING
TAKES PLACE.
DRYING AND SLIGHT WARMING OCCURS ACROSS THE MID-S BEHIND DEEPENING
SFC/UL LOWS AS THEY WORK UP INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI/SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 57 47 55 47 / 50 40 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 59 47 55 46 / 20 30 20 10
CROSSVILLE 52 43 51 43 / 50 60 30 10
COLUMBIA 56 48 55 47 / 50 30 20 10
LAWRENCEBURG 54 48 55 46 / 60 20 10 10
WAVERLY 58 46 58 46 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KMRX 220851
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
351 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF
COAST WILL TRACK EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE SHORT TERM.
MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA...WITH SOME MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
PUSHING IN TODAY AND LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW MAY ACT TO INHIBIT PRECIP IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY AREAS
TODAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE THERE...WITH CAT
POPS FAR SOUTH. TONIGHT WILL GO CAT POPS SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST ZONES. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY
LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE SHORT TERM...SO WILL STAY CLOSE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD
THE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY PASSED BY THE AREA TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS IN THE AREA...AND
A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY LOOK MOSTLY LIKE A DRIZZLE SOUNDING WITH
SATURATED CONDITIONS MOSTLY WARMER THAN 0 DEG C. SO WOULD EXPECT
VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GET A CLICK OR TWO ON THE RAIN GAGE...SO WILL
INCLUDE AT LEAST SOME POPS EVERYWHERE MONDAY...HIGHER POPS IN
MOUNTAINS. ALL DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IS ERODING TOP OF MOISTURE...PRECIP SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY.
FIRST WAVE OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...WITH SEVERAL WAVES PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR A COUPLE OF DEEP UPPER CYCLONES TO
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
COULD HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN SOME
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WILL GO MORE WIDESPREAD FOR
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE...AND LIMIT EXTENT
ON FRIDAY TO MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/2 OF AREA AND MOUNTAINS. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ON TEMPS FOR LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...IF MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THIS TREND...TEMPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EVEN COLDER.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TAKES TROUGH QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...SO SATURDAY
LOOKS TO BE CLEARING AND DRY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 46 55 46 65 / 90 80 20 0 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 45 54 45 65 / 50 70 30 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 54 46 54 44 64 / 50 60 30 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 41 53 41 62 / 30 60 30 20 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW/GM
000
FXUS64 KMEG 220849
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
IT WAS CLOUDY OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
50S.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MS/AL MOVING NORTHEAST. VERY LIGHT RETURNS WERE NOTED OVER
NORTHEAST MS...TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWEST. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS
DEPICTED BY THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR OVER N MS...AND PERHAPS EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MEMPHIS. IF IT
DOES EXTEND TO MEMPHIS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT I.E.
LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH.
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN RIVER AND NE MS THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. AGAIN...LIGHT RAIN MAY EXTEND
FARTHER WEST INTO MEMPHIS AND PERHAPS JACKSON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DIVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY AS THE MIDSOUTH COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING.
AC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE SLOWER TO MOVE INTO NORTH MS THIS EVENING.
KGWX RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH MS...DRIFTING NORTH
AND AND BORNE FROM VFR CIGS. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER NORTH MS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE SOUTH...NEARER THE UPPER LOW CORE TRACKING OVER SOUTH MS
INTO AL.
00Z NAM MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THE RAIN EAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE...BASED ON TRENDS SO FAR THIS
EVENING. BOTH NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PLACE IFR CIGS AT
KTUP IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES MVFR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCE OF
IFR AFTER TAF EXPIRATION TIME MONDAY MORNING.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 62 48 62 47 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 60 45 60 45 / 20 10 10 10
JBR 61 44 62 45 / 10 0 10 10
TUP 56 48 63 47 / 70 30 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 220544 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
AT 03Z...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
ORLEANS. RAIN HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PUSH NORTH OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AROUND 5
KFT WHICH HAS PREVENTED MUCH MORE THAN JUST SPRINKLES FROM
REACHING THE GROUND OVER NORTHERN MS THUS FAR. THE NEW 00Z NAM HAS
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE RAIN AGAIN AND KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEW 00Z GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS
THE RAIN WELL INTO TENNESSEE WHICH SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE BEST FORCING REMAINING SOUTH.
ALREADY TWEAKED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THEN RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO PLAYED WITH SOME
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR SAVANNAH WHERE THE TEMP HAS
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S.
BORGHOFF
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN RETURNS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE
SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A HUNDREDTH AT BEST
THUS FAR AND AGREES WELL THUS FAR WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ADVERTISED BY SHORT
TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH
OF I-40 TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT /LIFT/
WILL BE LOCATED. ANY LINGERING RAIN SUNDAY WILL DEPART THE MID
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAISED POPS
UP TO CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT EXPECT OVERALL RAIN
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE SLOWER TO MOVE INTO NORTH MS THIS EVENING.
KGWX RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH MS...DRIFTING NORTH
AND AND BORNE FROM VFR CIGS. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER NORTH MS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE SOUTH...NEARER THE UPPER LOW CORE TRACKING OVER SOUTH MS
INTO AL.
00Z NAM MODEL IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THE RAIN EAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE...BASED ON TRENDS SO FAR THIS
EVENING. BOTH NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PLACE IFR CIGS AT
KTUP IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING RAIN SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT THE
REMAINING TAF SITES MVFR SUNDAY EVENING...WITH BETTER CHANCE OF
IFR AFTER TAF EXPIRATION TIME MONDAY MORNING.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 49 62 46 62 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 45 60 45 60 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 45 61 44 62 / 0 0 0 10
TUP 47 56 46 63 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 220528
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1228 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS BY
12Z...BUT SHOULD BE SLOW TO MAKE IT TO NORTHERN AREAS AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT ARRIVAL OF LOWER CIGS AND PRECIP AT
TYS AND TRI FOR A WHILE. WILL CARRY MVFR CONDITIONS AT CHA STARTING
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TYS AND TRI BY LATE IN
TAF...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS VFR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR NOW.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 220520
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1122 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS SE 1/2 AND FOR WORDING ON CLOUDS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MAG
000
FXUS64 KMEG 220352 AAB
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
952 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
AT 03Z...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NEW
ORLEANS. RAIN HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PUSH NORTH OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AROUND 5
KFT WHICH HAS PREVENTED MUCH MORE THAN JUST SPRINKLES FROM
REACHING THE GROUND OVER NORTHERN MS THUS FAR. THE NEW 00Z NAM HAS
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE RAIN AGAIN AND KEEPS THE BEST CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEW 00Z GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER AND BRINGS
THE RAIN WELL INTO TENNESSEE WHICH SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE BEST FORCING REMAINING SOUTH.
ALREADY TWEAKED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THEN RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO PLAYED WITH SOME
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR SAVANNAH WHERE THE TEMP HAS
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S.
BORGHOFF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN RETURNS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE
SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A HUNDREDTH AT BEST
THUS FAR AND AGREES WELL THUS FAR WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ADVERTISED BY SHORT
TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH
OF I-40 TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT /LIFT/
WILL BE LOCATED. ANY LINGERING RAIN SUNDAY WILL DEPART THE MID
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAISED POPS
UP TO CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT EXPECT OVERALL RAIN
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE LA SHORE. MVFR
CIGS WERE NOTED NEAR THE COAST...WHILE SCATTERED MID AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
KGWX RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER CENTRAL
MS...HEADED NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE KTUP AREA
AROUND 03Z.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY... KMEM/KMKL SHOULD
BE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND NAM DERIVED GUIDANCE
BRINGS KTUP CIGS DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS...AS CIGS COULD EASILY GO IFR
BETWEEN BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 49 62 46 62 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 45 60 45 60 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 45 61 44 62 / 0 0 0 10
TUP 47 56 46 63 / 90 50 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 220225
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
925 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. RADAR INDICATING
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
NO CHANGES NEEDED.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 55 45 58 45 / 30 60 30 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 55 43 57 42 / 20 60 40 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 40 55 44 57 43 / 20 60 40 20 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 54 41 55 39 / 10 50 50 30 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
000
FXUS64 KMRX 212357 AAC
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
657 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN COVERAGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WILL GO THE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT CHA AND TYS DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS BUT TRI SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
GH
000
FXUS64 KOHX 212350
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
550 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL RETREAT INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ALONG WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS 8 DEGS AT BNA AND 6 DEGS AT CSV AT 12Z SUNDAY NOT EXPECTING
FOG TO DEVELOP AT FORECAST SITES OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS AT 00Z THIS EVENING
WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY 00Z MONDAY.
LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALONG ALABAMA/SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD TO ALONG INTERSTATE 40 BY 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT FORECAST SITES WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY
BKN035 AT BOTH BNA AND CSV THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF MODELS ALL FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN W GULF
OF MEXICO TO MOVE ENE TO NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER BY DAYBREAK SUN...AS
THE LOW WEAKENS EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING
NE AND INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WELL S AND SW OF THE MID
STATE AT THIS TIME. PRECIP SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE NE DUE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING ACROSS E GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC STATES
AREA.
BECAUSE BOTH GFS & NAM MODELS FORECAST ONLY VERY LOW PRECIP EFFICIENCY
VALUES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
IN S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E TX THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW...WILL MOVE NE AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON
SUN. THIS ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON...
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF
AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN SE HALF OF MIDSTATE. GFS MODEL MAY BE OVER
DOING THE POPS A TAD THOUGH WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT...WITH RIDGING
CONTINUING TO EXTEND W ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BUT BECAUSE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MON...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...BUT NOT AS HIGH. DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE MID STATE MON AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE W GREAT LAKES AREA TUE AND WED AND
THEN STALL OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID STATE TUE...
BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE E OF OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING WITH IT A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THEN DRY
WEATHER AGAIN IS EXPECTED ON WED AND WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF PRECIP...THIS TIME IN THE N AND NE THU AND FAR NE THU NIGHT. THE
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...SO WILL HAVE TO PUT A
RAIN /SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN NE. BUT IT SHOULD BE A LOW POP EVENT. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THAT FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 212337 AAB
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
537 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN RETURNS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE
SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A HUNDREDTH AT BEST
THUS FAR AND AGREES WELL THUS FAR WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ADVERTISED BY SHORT
TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH
OF I-40 TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT /LIFT/
WILL BE LOCATED. ANY LINGERING RAIN SUNDAY WILL DEPART THE MID
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAISED POPS
UP TO CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT EXPECT OVERALL RAIN
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE LA SHORE. MVFR
CIGS WERE NOTED NEAR THE COAST...WHILE SCATTERED MID AND BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
KGWX RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER CENTRAL
MS...HEADED NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE KTUP AREA
AROUND 03Z.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY... KMEM/KMKL SHOULD
BE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND NAM DERIVED GUIDANCE
BRINGS KTUP CIGS DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS...AS CIGS COULD EASILY GO IFR
BETWEEN BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 48 62 46 62 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 44 60 45 60 / 10 30 20 10
JBR 44 61 44 62 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 46 56 46 63 / 70 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 212140
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
340 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
GFS...NAM AND ECMWF MODELS ALL FORECAST A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN W GULF
OF MEXICO TO MOVE ENE TO NEAR MOUTH OF MS RIVER BY DAYBREAK SUN...AS
THE LOW WEAKENS EVEN MORE. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING
NE AND INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WELL S AND SW OF THE MID
STATE AT THIS TIME. PRECIP SHOULD BE SLOW TO MOVE NE DUE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING ACROSS E GREAT LAKES TO MID ATLANTIC STATES
AREA.
BECAUSE BOTH GFS & NAM MODELS FORECAST ONLY VERY LOW PRECIP EFFICIENCY
VALUES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
IN S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E TX THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
SURFACE LOW...WILL MOVE NE AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA ON
SUN. THIS ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON...
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW HALF
AND SHOWERS LIKELY IN SE HALF OF MIDSTATE. GFS MODEL MAY BE OVER
DOING THE POPS A TAD THOUGH WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS.
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT...WITH RIDGING
CONTINUING TO EXTEND W ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA. WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BUT BECAUSE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MON...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...BUT NOT AS HIGH. DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE MID STATE MON AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE W GREAT LAKES AREA TUE AND WED AND
THEN STALL OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID STATE TUE...
BUT SHOULD BE LOCATED TO THE E OF OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK WED. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING WITH IT A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THEN DRY
WEATHER AGAIN IS EXPECTED ON WED AND WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THU WITH ANOTHER CHANCE
OF PRECIP...THIS TIME IN THE N AND NE THU AND FAR NE THU NIGHT. THE
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...SO WILL HAVE TO PUT A
RAIN /SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN NE. BUT IT SHOULD BE A LOW POP EVENT. DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED AFTER THAT FOR FRI AND SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 45 57 46 58 / 10 50 50 20
CLARKSVILLE 43 59 44 59 / 10 30 40 20
CROSSVILLE 41 53 44 53 / 10 60 50 30
COLUMBIA 46 57 47 58 / 20 50 50 20
LAWRENCEBURG 46 56 47 59 / 20 60 50 10
WAVERLY 44 59 45 59 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
STEIGERWALDT
000
FXUS64 KMEG 212124
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST WHILE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EAST TEXAS. SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CST ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE.
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WRF/GFS SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN AN INCREASE IN RETURNS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AS
ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. METAR OBSERVATIONS HAVE
SHOWN HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING AROUND A HUNDREDTH AT BEST
THUS FAR AND AGREES WELL THUS FAR WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ADVERTISED BY SHORT
TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH
OF I-40 TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT /LIFT/
WILL BE LOCATED. ANY LINGERING RAIN SUNDAY WILL DEPART THE MID
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAISED POPS
UP TO CHANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT EXPECT OVERALL RAIN
AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY. RAIN FREE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY WITH EAST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND SLOWLY
LOWER. -RA MAY GET CLOSE TO KMEM AND KMKL AFTER 11Z...BUT THINK
MOST -RA WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE SITES...SO DID NOT
MENTION IN TAFS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY GET CLOSE TO KMEM AND KMKL
AFTER 16Z...BUT CHOSE TO KEEP OUT OF TAF FOR NOW THINKING THESE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THESE SITES AFTER 18Z.
AT KTUP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z...THEN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY 06-15Z AS
-RA MOVES INTO THIS SITE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP 07-10Z. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME AFTER 09Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 48 62 46 62 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 44 60 45 60 / 10 30 20 10
JBR 44 61 44 62 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 46 56 46 63 / 70 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 212000
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED ALONG
THE SOUTH LOUISIANA COAST AT 19Z...CONTINUES TO PUSH MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS NORTH TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT ALSO RULE OUT A STRAY
-SHRA/RA TOWARD SUNRISE IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPS LOOK
GENERALLY GOOD AS PER GOING FORECAST...AND LIKE GFS/NAM SOLUTION FOR
SOUTHWEST VIRGINA/TRI CITIES AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
THERE. WILL DROP PRECIP CHANCES DOWN CONSIDERABLY FORECAST AREA WIDE
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER SOLUTION BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDING
AND AS PER GFS/NAM MODELS.
GFS/NAM MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL FOLLOW A
COMPROMISE MORE TOWARD THE SREF MODEL AND IN BETWEEN GFS/NAM
SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS BEING
THE RULE FROM JUST NORTH TO TYS-IN BETWEEN CHA/TYS. WILL GO WITH
POPS BECOMING MORE TOWARD THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR CHA AREA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD AS PER GOING FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND
ACCEPTED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAKENING GULF COAST
SYSTEM SHOULD BE CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS EAST TN AND SW NC AND FINALLY
INTO SW VA. SYSTEM WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO HELD ON TO HIGHER POPS MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS HAS WEAK
UPPER LOW ACROSS MIDDLE TN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL FAIRLY UNIFORM
ACROSS FORECAST AREA BUT NAM MODEL HAS HIGHER AMOUNTS EAST CLOSER TO
WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT REDEVELOPS OFF SE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH HIGHER POPS EAST THEN SHIFTING
TO NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY AND LARGER QPF NUMBERS EAST IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS HINT AT BRIEF RIDGING TUESDAY AND THEN A QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM FROM THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY DRIES OUT AGAIN
BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT IS QUICK ON ITS HEELS SHOULD AFFECT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 55 45 58 45 / 30 60 30 20 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 41 55 43 57 42 / 20 60 40 20 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 40 55 44 57 43 / 20 60 40 20 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 54 41 55 39 / 10 50 50 30 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TT/TD
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211750
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1051 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS/METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND THUS FAR ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. 12Z WRF/GFS
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS
SOUTH OF I-40 AND ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. WILL MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND HOW COLD THE EXTENDED MAY GET.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING BACK ON PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH EACH RUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR IN FACT THAT I
WAS ABLE TO REMOVE ALL POPS. MODEL QPF THROUGH 00Z IS A HUNDREDTH
OR LESS...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. HIGHS TODAY
ARE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO KEEP THEM LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES...BUT WITH A REDUCED THREAT FOR RAIN AND
925 MB TEMPS OF +10 TO +11C...LOW TO MID 60S SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET AND IS CLOSE TO MOS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT AND THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TRACKS EAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MODELS
HAVE SHUNTED THE BEST QPF SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE IF THE LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT TO CONTINUE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS...SO TRIMMED THEM BACK TO LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTH AND TAPERED THEM OFF QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC JUST SOUTH OF
KMEM. SOME RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 5 KFT. THE RESULT
MAY BE A LOT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AND RAPIDLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NEAR IOWA. THIS
WILL CAUSE A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH TIMING...SO WILL
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND KEEP POPS GOING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND IT WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH
HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING ONLY IN THE 40S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF MEMPHIS MISSES THE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS EXPECTED...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT
TUESDAY...THEY WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING THE RECORD
FOR DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. IT IS VERY UNUSUAL TO HAVE A RECORD
WET MONTH FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A RECORD DRY MONTH FOR SURE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY WITH EAST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND SLOWLY
LOWER. -RA MAY GET CLOSE TO KMEM AND KMKL AFTER 11Z...BUT THINK
MOST -RA WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE SITES...SO DID NOT
MENTION IN TAFS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY GET CLOSE TO KMEM AND KMKL
AFTER 16Z...BUT CHOSE TO KEEP OUT OF TAF FOR NOW THINKING THESE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THESE SITES AFTER 18Z.
AT KTUP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z...THEN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY 06-15Z AS
-RA MOVES INTO THIS SITE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP 07-10Z. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME AFTER 09Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 66 48 63 45 / 10 20 10 10
MKL 65 44 60 41 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 65 44 62 41 / 10 10 10 0
TUP 63 46 57 46 / 20 70 30 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211742 AAC
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1242 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY
FOR ALL THREE LOCATIONS...AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST OUT
OF LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED TEMPO VSBY IN 15-18Z TIME
FRAME ON SUNDAY FOR CHA AIRPORT...AS -RA/SHRA SHOULD MOVE INTO
VICINITY. MAY ALSO SEE AN OCCASIONAL 5SM VSBY FROM CHA-TYS DUE TO
SCATTERED -RA/SHRA.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TT
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211651
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1051 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST THIS MORNING. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS/METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND THUS FAR ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. 12Z WRF/GFS
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS
SOUTH OF I-40 AND ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EARLY
EVENING. WILL MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND HOW COLD THE EXTENDED MAY GET.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING BACK ON PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH EACH RUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR IN FACT THAT I
WAS ABLE TO REMOVE ALL POPS. MODEL QPF THROUGH 00Z IS A HUNDREDTH
OR LESS...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. HIGHS TODAY
ARE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO KEEP THEM LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES...BUT WITH A REDUCED THREAT FOR RAIN AND
925 MB TEMPS OF +10 TO +11C...LOW TO MID 60S SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET AND IS CLOSE TO MOS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT AND THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TRACKS EAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MODELS
HAVE SHUNTED THE BEST QPF SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE IF THE LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT TO CONTINUE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS...SO TRIMMED THEM BACK TO LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTH AND TAPERED THEM OFF QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC JUST SOUTH OF
KMEM. SOME RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 5 KFT. THE RESULT
MAY BE A LOT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AND RAPIDLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NEAR IOWA. THIS
WILL CAUSE A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH TIMING...SO WILL
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND KEEP POPS GOING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND IT WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH
HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING ONLY IN THE 40S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF MEMPHIS MISSES THE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS EXPECTED...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT
TUESDAY...THEY WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING THE RECORD
FOR DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. IT IS VERY UNUSUAL TO HAVE A RECORD
WET MONTH FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A RECORD DRY MONTH FOR SURE.
BORGHOFF
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT
RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AT TUP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. ELSEWHERE...RAINFREE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS AND VISBYS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT (< 7 KTS) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 67 49 63 45 / 10 20 10 10
MKL 66 45 60 41 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 65 44 62 41 / 10 10 10 0
TUP 63 48 57 46 / 10 70 30 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KOHX 211612 AAA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1012 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
AT MID MORNING...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM N IL...ESE TO VA. MOSTLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THICKER
CLOUDS OVER MS. BUT AS THEY MOVE NE TOWARD THE MIDSTATE...THINNING
OCCURS AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE WEAK NW/SE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE AREA. I EXPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON.
MORNING 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER W KY/NW
TN...WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE MID STATE. BUT
MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AS A WHOLE...TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE DURING THE DAY TODAY.
I`LL BACK OFF ON THE CLOUD FORECAST SOMEWHAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AND DUE TO A TAD MORE SUNSHINE NOW EXPECTED...WILL RAISE FORECAST
TEMPS JUST A TAD.
UPDATED FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT WX WAS OCCURRING IN MID TN THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE GULF COAST LOW WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE GULF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR MID TN. LATEST GFS HAS
FLIPPED TO A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. EVEN WITH THIS
TRACK...MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING
INTO MID TN...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GENERALLY...POPS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT
SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH
MOST AREAS.
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
AREAS AND EVEN INTO MONDAY FOR THE EAST HALF. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE AREA MONDAY...SO SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED BY THANKSGIVING WITH COOL AND DRY WX TO FOLLOW.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
STEIGERWALDT
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211453 AAB
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
953 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...ONLY LIGHT FOG GENERALLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SCATTERED
TO THIN BROKEN DECK OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA. LATEST 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TEMPS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS/NAM NUMBERS AND ACCEPTED AS PER
GOING FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH BASICALLY MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF TYS AND KEEP PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 43 55 45 58 / 0 50 60 30 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 41 55 43 57 / 0 20 60 40 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 61 40 55 44 57 / 0 20 60 40 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 34 54 41 55 / 0 10 50 50 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TROUTMAN
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211148
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND HOW COLD THE EXTENDED MAY GET.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING BACK ON PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH EACH RUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR IN FACT THAT I
WAS ABLE TO REMOVE ALL POPS. MODEL QPF THROUGH 00Z IS A HUNDREDTH
OR LESS...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. HIGHS TODAY
ARE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO KEEP THEM LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES...BUT WITH A REDUCED THREAT FOR RAIN AND
925 MB TEMPS OF +10 TO +11C...LOW TO MID 60S SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET AND IS CLOSE TO MOS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT AND THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TRACKS EAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MODELS
HAVE SHUNTED THE BEST QPF SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE IF THE LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT TO CONTINUE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS...SO TRIMMED THEM BACK TO LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTH AND TAPERED THEM OFF QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC JUST SOUTH OF
KMEM. SOME RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 5 KFT. THE RESULT
MAY BE A LOT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AND RAPIDLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NEAR IOWA. THIS
WILL CAUSE A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH TIMING...SO WILL
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND KEEP POPS GOING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND IT WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH
HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING ONLY IN THE 40S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF MEMPHIS MISSES THE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS EXPECTED...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT
TUESDAY...THEY WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING THE RECORD
FOR DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. IT IS VERY UNUSUAL TO HAVE A RECORD
WET MONTH FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A RECORD DRY MONTH FOR SURE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT
RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AT TUP TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. ELSEWHERE...RAINFREE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS AND VISBYS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT (< 7 KTS) THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 67 49 63 45 / 10 20 10 10
MKL 66 45 60 41 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 65 44 62 41 / 10 10 10 0
TUP 63 48 57 46 / 10 70 30 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 211130
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
630 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA DURING MUCH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME MID
CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH LATE. MAY BE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN AT CHA LAST
FEW HOURS OF PERIOD. SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TRI LATE IN
PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS PROBABILITY DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW
000
FXUS64 KOHX 210941
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
341 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT WX WAS OCCURRING IN MID TN THIS
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. BKN-OVC HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE GULF COAST LOW WERE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE GULF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THIS WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS FOR MID TN. LATEST GFS HAS
FLIPPED TO A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. EVEN WITH THIS
TRACK...MODELS STILL SHOW MOISTURE AND SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING
INTO MID TN...MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GENERALLY...POPS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST TO ABOUT 50 PERCENT
SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH
MOST AREAS.
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INDICATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
AREAS AND EVEN INTO MONDAY FOR THE EAST HALF. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE AREA MONDAY...SO SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED BY THANKSGIVING WITH COOL AND DRY WX TO FOLLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 63 44 57 44 / 0 20 30 20
CLARKSVILLE 63 43 59 41 / 0 10 20 10
CROSSVILLE 59 41 52 43 / 0 30 60 30
COLUMBIA 63 45 56 45 / 0 30 40 20
LAWRENCEBURG 62 45 55 46 / 10 40 40 20
WAVERLY 63 44 58 42 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
13
000
FXUS64 KMEG 210929
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE RAIN CHANCES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND HOW COLD THE EXTENDED MAY GET.
.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING BACK ON PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH EACH RUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR IN FACT THAT I
WAS ABLE TO REMOVE ALL POPS. MODEL QPF THROUGH 00Z IS A HUNDREDTH
OR LESS...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. HIGHS TODAY
ARE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO KEEP THEM LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES...BUT WITH A REDUCED THREAT FOR RAIN AND
925 MB TEMPS OF +10 TO +11C...LOW TO MID 60S SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
BET AND IS CLOSE TO MOS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TONIGHT AND THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ATTEMPT TO SATURATE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TRACKS EAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MODELS
HAVE SHUNTED THE BEST QPF SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THIS TREND MAY
CONTINUE IF THE LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. WAS NOT CONFIDENT TO CONTINUE
THE CATEGORICAL POPS...SO TRIMMED THEM BACK TO LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTH AND TAPERED THEM OFF QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC JUST SOUTH OF
KMEM. SOME RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 5 KFT. THE RESULT
MAY BE A LOT OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO WATCH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AND RAPIDLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY TUESDAY NEAR IOWA. THIS
WILL CAUSE A RATHER POTENT COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH TIMING...SO WILL
ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND KEEP POPS GOING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THE FRONT WILL HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
AND IT WILL BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
A COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETTLE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH
HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING ONLY IN THE 40S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF MEMPHIS MISSES THE RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS EXPECTED...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT
TUESDAY...THEY WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING THE RECORD
FOR DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. IT IS VERY UNUSUAL TO HAVE A RECORD
WET MONTH FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY A RECORD DRY MONTH FOR SURE.
BORGHOFF
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
FEW CHANGES FROM THE 00Z TAFS...OTHER THAN TO PUSH BACK RAIN A
FEW HOURS AT KTUP UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
BROKEN/OVERCAST CIRRUS VEIL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... OVERSPREADING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDLEVEL ALTO CUMULUS. VFR WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
WITH SURFACE HIGH FIRMLY IN PLACE...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
RAIN EVENT APPEARS LIKELY OVER NORTH MS SATURDAY EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AT KMEM AND KMKL...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. KTUP WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD...03Z TO 06Z. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE KTUP VICINITY
BEYOND 06Z...WHEN KTUP WILL LIKELY FALL TO MVFR.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 67 49 63 45 / 10 20 10 10
MKL 66 45 60 41 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 65 44 62 41 / 10 10 10 0
TUP 63 48 57 46 / 10 70 30 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMRX 210903
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
RETREAT NORTHEAST AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ALONG
THE GULF COAST. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS AROUND AGAIN TODAY...THEN SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY MAKE IT INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT
WILL GO DRY NORTH TONIGHT. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE...SO
JUST A FEW TWEAKS.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST THEN TRIED TO USE A BLEND OF
ECMWF/GFS FROM MID WEEK ON. TWEAKED FORECAST POPS BACK A BIT IN TIME
AND GEOGRAPHICALLY ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST SYSTEM STILL PROGGED TO BE
RATHER WEAK AND DISPLACED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS ON ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE
NATION. ALSO SLOWED IMPROVEMENT SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS WEAK SYSTEM
SLOWER TO PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. PER MODEL SUGGESTION SLOWED DOWN ARRIVAL OF
MID WEEK UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING POPS FROM
DAYTIME PERIOD TUESDAY AND PLACING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER
TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH A DRY WEDNESDAY AS REGION AWAITS
AMPLIFICATION OF MEAN UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH A
HEALTHY BIT OF ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. USED SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW AS WE AWAIT BETTER MODEL DEPICTION
CONCERNING TIMING AND STRENGTH. AIR BECOMES COLD ENOUGH FOR MENTION
OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 43 55 45 58 / 0 50
60 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 41 55 43 57
/ 0 20 60 40 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 40
55 44 57 / 0 20 60 40 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN
59 34 54 41 55 / 0 10 50 50 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
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