[top]
000
FXUS64 KHGX 212200
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW LOCATED ALONG THE SW LOUISIANA COAST WITH UPPER LOW
BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF SE TX. PRECIP HAS MOSTLY COME TO AN END
AT THIS POINT WITH SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW BEGINNING
TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. FINALLY SEEING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD MORE CONSERVATIVE NAM
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST...KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR AREA
WIDE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND WET GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF BY
MID MORNING SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AS WEAK SFC HIGH MOVES EAST. THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SUN NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS
MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY MODEST AS LOW LEVEL JET NEVER BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES DIFFLUENT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT BEST JET DYNAMICS
STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL...PWS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
1.1-1.4 INCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL AID IN
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED -SHRA MON NIGHT...AND A NARROW BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS
LATE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY. KEPT POPS GOING THROUGH TUE AFTN WITH
ECMWF/NAM SHOWING A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT THAN THE GFS.
RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED TUE NIGHT AS FRONT CLEARS THE COASTAL
WATERS.
DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER SE TX WEDNESDAY AND GETS
REINFORCED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTS
PASS THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE
VERY NICE WEATHER FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...DRY AND COOL WITH
LOTS OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S...MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS SATURDAY AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY BACK IN THE
FORECAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
35
&&
.AVIATION...
LOOKS LIKE FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS THE WET GROUNDS...CALMING
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES COME INTO PLAY OVERNIGHT. NOT SEEING A LOT
OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE THE AREA BEHIND THE EXIT-
ING STORM SYSTEM PER CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. AS SUCH THE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
CURRENTLY IN THE TAFS MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH AND LIFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE WIDESPREAD BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. 41
&&
.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE THINGS ARE IMPROVING THIS AFTN. WINDS/SEAS CONTINUING TO
SLOWLY FALL AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE ENE. WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP
THE SCA FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND GO WITH AN SCEC THROUGH THE NEXT
UPDATE/PACKAGE. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS UNTIL SUN NIGHT. THE RETURN OF
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA ON TUES. SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED BEHIND THIS FRONT
FROM TUES NIGHT THRU WEDS AFTN. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 48 70 48 75 56 / 10 0 0 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 48 70 48 76 61 / 10 0 0 10 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 53 66 55 73 64 / 10 0 0 10 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION/MARINE...41
[top]
000
FXUS64 KFWD 212139
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY INTO
THIS MORNING...HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AS OF 20Z.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF NORTH TEXAS. A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS HAVE HELD IN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF I-35
CORRIDOR TO THE CLEARING LINE...WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BREAKING UP. EXPECT TO
SEE THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH A WET GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 3 MILES IN
SPOTS...AND CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. FOR NOW HAVE
JUST MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG FROM 09Z TO 15Z. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AFTERWARD... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH COOL/COLD MORNINGS AND
SEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOONS. WE MAY SEE A FREEZE
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 47 69 49 70 47 / 0 5 0 5 20
WACO, TX 47 69 49 73 51 / 5 0 0 5 20
PARIS, TX 44 67 45 67 48 / 5 5 5 5 40
DENTON, TX 47 69 46 69 45 / 0 5 0 5 20
MCKINNEY, TX 43 68 44 69 45 / 0 5 0 5 30
DALLAS, TX 49 69 51 70 49 / 0 5 0 5 20
TERRELL, TX 44 68 48 71 52 / 0 5 0 5 30
CORSICANA, TX 46 67 49 71 50 / 5 0 5 5 30
TEMPLE, TX 46 68 50 73 53 / 5 0 5 5 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
[top]
000
FXUS64 KCRP 212115
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
315 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CLOUDS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY STARTING TO ERODE...AND GENERALLY EXPECT
THESE TO CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT BUT WILL MONITOR AND MAKE ANY
LAST MINUTE CHANGES IF NEEDED. MAIN ISSUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
BE FOG. WITH MUCH DRIER AIR LIGHT WINDS AND VERY WET GROUNDS...FOG
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WHETHER IT BE SUFFICIENTLY DENSE OVER A LARGE
AREA IS THE MAIN QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY DENSE
FOG ADVISORY YET AS NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT IN AREAL COVERAGE...
ALTHOUGH KALI AND KVCT WILL BE PRIME SUSPECTS...THE LATTER AS LONG
AS THE CLOUDS DO NOT LINGER. HAVE MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG WITH
PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...AFTERNOON SHIFT CAN ADJUST AS NEEDED.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...SHOULD SEE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK MOISTURE
ADVECTION (AGAIN WITH WET GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS) SHOULD BRING
FOG BACK AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ON THE LOW
SIDE OR BELOW GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST
WHERE DRIER AIR RESIDES. HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
70S...WITH PERHAPS 80F IN LAREDO. ABOUT A 5 TO 7 DEGREE WARM UP
MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AS MOISTURE AND
ONSHORE FLOW RETURN.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREAS OF FOG WILL START THE
PERIOD MONDAY IN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO AND MAYBE SLOW TO
CLEAR DUE TO LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. POTENT TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAW MOISTURE AND CLOUD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A CHANCE OF POPS MON NGT AND TUE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS...SATURDATED SOILS AND WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD LEAD TO FOG REDEVELOPING
AGAIN MON NGT-TUE AM. FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY TUE. DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND H85 WINDS
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS WILL UNDER CUT THE GFS MOS POPS
AND INDICATE ONLY 40-50%. CONVECTION MAY BE MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO OUR SOUTH AS GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME JET
DYNAMICS/DIFLUENCE ALOFT IN THOSE AREAS. PCPN WILL END FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUE NGT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF...WITH A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE GFS KEEPS US DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN JET.
KEPT THE DRY SCENARIO FOR NOW...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER ADDING POPS.
&&
.MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...THEN BECOME ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3
FEET BY SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 49 73 58 77 63 / 0 0 10 20 30
VICTORIA 46 71 53 77 58 / 0 0 10 10 30
LAREDO 50 80 59 78 62 / 0 0 10 10 20
ALICE 47 76 55 78 61 / 0 0 10 20 30
ROCKPORT 52 72 59 76 64 / 0 0 10 20 30
COTULLA 45 76 54 77 60 / 0 0 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 47 75 57 78 62 / 0 0 10 20 30
NAVY CORPUS 54 72 61 75 64 / 0 0 10 20 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEWX 212105
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
305 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH GAVE US FRIDAY`S BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION THIS EVENING RESULTING IN CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. THERE IS AMPLE GROUND MOISTURE FROM
THE RAINS AND WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT..
EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTH..
NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE SHALLOW FOG
CONDITION SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING AND WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW RETURNING TO VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY..SHOULD
HAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 70. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY MORNING FOG MONDAY..THEN A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY..PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF A RAPID MOVING UPPER AIR TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. CLEARING AND COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
30S HILL COUNTRY..40S ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL WEDNESDAY.
A MAMMOTH RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET DOMINATING THE ENTIRE U.S. ON
THANKSGIVING WILL ANCHOR A DRY SURFACE RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT A CHILLY THANKSGIVING
MORNING AND A MILD TO COOL AFTERNOON. THIS ANCHORED DRY RIDGE
PATTERN WILL KEEP THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 47 71 50 73 / - 0 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 41 69 44 74 / - 0 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 45 71 47 73 / - 0 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 47 69 52 70 / 20 0 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 46 72 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 47 68 50 71 / 20 0 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 46 72 48 72 / 0 0 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 46 69 48 74 / - 0 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 45 69 48 75 / 20 - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 49 71 50 74 / 0 0 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 47 71 49 73 / 0 0 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
02/04
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLUB 212055
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
255 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
SERN CO AND THEN PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO MUCH OF THE
CWFA...PERHAPS STALLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH RETURN FLOW QUICKLY PICKING UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT ON MONDAY. PREDOMINANT FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR NEAR-SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH A LITTLE BETTER SRLY FLOW TONIGHT...WILL
CALL FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH DENSITY/COVERAGE. ON THE
CAPROCK...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND NOT QUITE
AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FWFLUB...AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE GUSTY WINDS
COMBINE WITH LOW MOISTURE LEVELS AND CURED FUELS...PARTICULARLY WEST
OF THE I-27/US 87 CORRIDOR. 26
&&
.LONG TERM...
GFS HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH SEEM TO AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT EXITING THE CWA. ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
UA LOW THE NAM BRINGS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES...COULDN/T BITE GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THEREFORE DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE FORECAST. THOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS HINTED AT A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS
HOWEVER KEPT THE ASSOCIATED LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH...THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 26 61 27 62 24 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 29 63 30 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 30 65 32 64 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 30 66 38 67 28 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 33 66 38 67 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 33 68 38 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 32 68 37 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 39 64 43 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 37 67 37 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 40 66 41 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/40
000
FXUS64 KLUB 212052
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
252 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AID IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
SERN CO AND THEN PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO MUCH OF THE
CWFA...PERHAPS STALLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...BY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH RETURN FLOW QUICKLY PICKING UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT ON MONDAY. PREDOMINANT FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG AND/OR STRATUS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR NEAR-SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH A LITTLE BETTER SRLY FLOW TONIGHT...WILL
CALL FOR AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH DENSITY/COVERAGE. ON THE
CAPROCK...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND NOT QUITE
AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FWFLUB...AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE GUSTY WINDS
COMBINE WITH LOW MOISTURE LEVELS AND CURED FUELS...PARTICULARLY WEST
OF THE I-27/US 87 CORRIDOR. 26
&&
.LONG TERM...
GFS HAS REMAINED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ON MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH SEEM TO AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT EXITING THE CWA. ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
UA LOW THE NAM BRINGS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN
ZONES...COULDN/T BITE GIVEN PREVIOUS RUNS AND CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THEREFORE DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE FORECAST. THOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS HINTED AT A CHANCE OF PRECIP BY THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS
HOWEVER KEPT THE ASSOCIATED LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH...THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 68 26 61 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 67 29 63 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 67 30 65 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 69 30 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 69 33 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 69 33 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 70 32 68 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 69 39 64 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 68 37 67 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 68 40 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/40
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSJT 212047
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
247 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLY TUESDAY...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 40 IN MOST AREAS. USING THE UPS
FOG TOOL IN BUFKIT...IT DOES INDICATE THAT STRATUS IS FAVORED OVER
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
CROSSOVER TEMPS. HOWEVER...I WILL INSERT SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG
GIVEN THE FAIRLY HIGH SURFACE RH FORECAST FROM THE NAM.
AFTER THE LOW CIGS SCATTER OUT ON SUNDAY...A NICE MILD DAY IS IN
STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
LACY
.LONG TERM...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MIDWEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT ON
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FRONT AT
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH AND
EAST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BUT HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY...WHERE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IS LOCATED.
FOR MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...THIS WILL KEEP WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER DRY AND
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES BEING ON
THE COOL SIDE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY WITH THE ECMWF HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL OW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WITH GFS HAS WEAK RIDGING
IN PLACE OVER TEXAS...SO HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 44 67 47 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 40 70 46 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 39 69 44 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
LACY/28
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMAF 212019
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES THANKS TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING OR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALSO GREATLY LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
ENSURING VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS ARE GETTING IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TO OUR DOORSTEP BY PEAK HEATING
WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT BRINGING ABOUT A PERIOD OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HAVE TRENDED THIS FORECAST AT OR BELOW MEX GUIDANCE
THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS IT HAS BEEN A BIT HIGH LATELY...PARTICULARLY
ON LOW TEMPS. THANKSGIVING MORNING SHOULD BE THE COLDEST MORNING
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LITTLE WIND. THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME
STATIONARY NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL KEEP TEXAS IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUALLY REINFORCE THE
COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE. SO WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME WARMING LATE
NEXT WEEK...IT WILL BE VERY GRADUAL.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 38 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 34 70 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 40 71 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 43 75 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 41 67 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 34 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 26 69 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 35 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 35 71 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 34 76 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
01/10
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBRO 212017
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
217 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 STATES FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AS A STEADY
SERIES OF 500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE CONUS
REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FAIRLY
DRY AND BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE CURRENT COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL BE
STEADILY MOVING EAST ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
E-SE RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND WARMING
TEMPS. THE NEXT MAJOR MID LEVEL TROUGH TO AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AREA WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE MON
CUTTING OFF TUES AND WED. THIS WILL PUSH THE NEXT MIDWEST COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX ON TUES RESULTING IN THE NEXT GOOD
RAIN CHC FOR THE REGION. AFTER THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AN
EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED MID LEVEL BAJA LOW WILL FORM UP AND WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE LOW LEVELS AN E/NE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS COMBINATION
OF W-SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE E-NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN GENEROUS CLD COVER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
THIS BAJA LOW WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST
MEX AND SOUTHERN TEX FRI AND SAT WITH YET ANOTHER BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SOME SLGT CHC/CHC POPS AFTER TUES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING SITUATION. SHORT TERM
COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET TEMPS/POPS LOOK PRETTY CLOSE
AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THIS OVERALL TREND. RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LOOKS ABOVE
AVERAGE AND WILL GO CLOSE TO MEX POPS FROM DAYS 3 TO 7 AND NEAR TO
A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONGER RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE PREVAILING TDA ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. SOME HIGHER CIRRUS CLDS ARE
ADVECTING NWD FROM MEXICO AND WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THRU THIS AFTN
WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS. FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVRNGT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU
THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.MARINE...THE 1 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATES WINDS WERE
WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 16 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KTS AND SEAS WERE
AROUND 6 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THIS AFTN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE DAY BEGAN WITH SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD THE REST OF TDA THRU
MON. MARINE SC CLDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE TO THE ESE THRU THIS
AFTN/EVE. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO
TNGT. WINDS WILL VEER NE TO E OVRNGT THRU SUN NGT AND REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE. SE FLOW WILL RETURN ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW SUN INTO MON. THE ONSHORE SE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE MON INTO TUE IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT WORKING THRU NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SCEC TO POSSIBLY MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THRU THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUE. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FROPA AND
POSSIBLY PERSIST THRU WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 57 77 65 80 / 0 0 10 20
BROWNSVILLE 53 79 64 80 / 0 0 10 20
HARLINGEN 52 78 63 82 / 0 0 10 20
MCALLEN 53 81 62 83 / 0 0 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 53 81 60 82 / 0 0 10 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 76 64 79 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...57
MESO...MARTINEZ
[top]
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212000
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
100 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND CAUSE CONTINUED DRY BUT COOLER
WEATHER ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MOSTLY
SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO EARLIER OUTLOOK AS ALL MODELS
IN AGREEMENT THAT TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH SHORT WAVES ALOFT MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS EACH DAY. SOMEWHAT WEAK BUT SLOW MOVING
LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO COVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THUS INDUCING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE RESULT WILL BE TRANSPORT OF WARM DRY AIR MASS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH JET AXIS
WELL TO THE NORTH HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BELOW THE BREEZY
CATEGORY.
MONDAY`S TROUGH WILL ALSO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT TO ITS WEST ADVECTING SOMEWHAT
COOLER CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD. THUS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT INDUCING COOLER EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL ACCORDINGLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER. OTHERWISE
LANDWARD WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF DRY AIR CAUSING
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW. MODELS INDICATE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WHILE WEAK BUT BROAD UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO PULLING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT. AT MOMENT MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. THUS THANKSGIVING AND
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z-23/00Z...
VFR CONDS THRU PD. UPR TROF WL MV E OF RGN TNGT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING. A SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE
NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND RAISE
HUMIDITIES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER US OR A LITTLE TO OUR WEST FOR LATER NEXT
WEEKEND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 40 69 41 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 37 68 38 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 69 38 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 38 67 33 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 25 54 26 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 31 66 32 66 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 62 33 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 33 70 34 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 32 70 34 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05 ROGASH/02 MACBLAIN
[top]
000
FXUS64 KAMA 211928
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
128 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
THIS MEANS PERIODIC COLD FRONTS FOR THE PANHANDLES AS UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL SURGE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD BEHIND THESE
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE PANHANDLES SHOULD EQUAL OUT
TO ABOUT NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. SOME DAYS WE WILL BE JUST
BELOW NORMAL AND SOME DAYS WE WILL SEE READINGS JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE SLIM TO NONE FOR THE REGION THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A PATTERN CHANGE BY LATER IN THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY.
THIS MAY HELP TO DRAG SOME COLDER CANADIAN AIR THIS WAY. MODELS DO
NOT AGREE ON OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER. THE GFS KEEPS OUR REGION DRY...WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS OUT SOME HOPE FOR PRECIP JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST FOR
NEXT SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN.
KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT
COUPLE OF FRONTS BEST.
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ABQ.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL GET STRONG AT TIMES THIS WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONTS. BUT THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF
THE CRITICAL RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 31 60 30 58 27 / 0 0 0 5 5
BEAVER OK 36 57 30 54 23 / 0 0 0 5 5
BOISE CITY OK 32 58 27 51 20 / 0 0 0 5 5
BORGER TX 36 63 37 61 30 / 0 0 0 5 5
BOYS RANCH TX 31 62 26 60 21 / 0 0 0 5 5
CANYON TX 27 62 22 60 24 / 0 0 0 5 5
CLARENDON TX 34 63 37 64 33 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALHART TX 28 58 23 54 19 / 0 0 0 5 5
GUYMON OK 31 61 28 54 24 / 0 0 0 5 5
HEREFORD TX 26 62 21 62 22 / 0 0 0 5 5
LIPSCOMB TX 40 60 33 58 27 / 0 0 0 5 5
PAMPA TX 37 61 40 60 31 / 0 0 0 5 5
SHAMROCK TX 40 61 38 64 36 / 0 0 0 5 5
WELLINGTON TX 38 63 37 65 36 / 0 0 0 5 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/15
000
FXUS64 KSJT 211904
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
104 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE BELOW FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TILL AFT 06Z AS THE LOW LVL MOISTURE
THAT IS IN PLACE HAS NOWHERE TO GO. AS TEMPS COOL TONIGHT AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATES...IFR CIGS ARE EXPTD TO DVLP IN THE EAST
AND SPREAD WEST TOWARD 12Z AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF
TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO REDUCE VSBYS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBYS AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES AT THIS TIME.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 44 67 47 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 40 70 46 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 39 69 44 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 211745 AAC
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1145 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...WILL LET COASTAL FLOOD AND SCA EXPIRE. UPDATE ZFP
AND CWF SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUES ARE CLEARING OVER THE KCRP AND KVCT AREA
TODAY...THEN FOG ALL AREAS TONIGHT INTO THE NEXT MORNING. CLOUDS
ARE TAKING TIME TO CLEAR OUT (EXPECTED AT KVCT BUT NOT SO MUCH AT
KCRP)...WITH SKC AT KALI AND KNQI. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS (BASED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE) AROUND 20Z AT KCRP BUT NOT UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET AT KVCT. THEN...WITH CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND WET
GROUNDS...CONTINUED WITH THE NOTION OF FOG WITH VSBYS 1/4SM AT
KALI AND KVCT AND AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLRD AND KCRP. AFTER
FOG CLEARS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONING...SHOULD SEE SKC
BUT COULD SEE FEW050 LATE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 49 73 58 77 / 0 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 65 46 71 53 77 / 10 0 0 10 10
LAREDO 78 50 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 73 47 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 10 20
ROCKPORT 67 52 72 59 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
COTULLA 73 45 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 10 20
KINGSVILLE 74 47 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 69 54 72 61 75 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...REFUGIO.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KEWX 211743
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1143 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF KBWD TO KCVB TO
TILDEN LINE WITH IFR CIGS AND BR/DZ/-RA WITH MVFR VSBYS ALONG AND
EAST OF SAN SABA TO KEDC TO KBAZ TO KBEA LINE WILL VERY SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE EAST OF
KTPL TO K11R TO KARM LINE BY 05Z. CLOUDS WILL BECOME FEW-SCT AT
KSAT AND KSSF AROUND 21Z AND KAUS AROUND 03Z. OTHERWISE, VFR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. DUE TO RECENT RAINS, AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/FG WITH
LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z AND 16Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. NLY WINDS OF
3 TO 9 KTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, BECOME VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS
TONIGHT, THEN SLY AT 4 TO 10 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ALMOST AT A STANDSTILL LATE THIS MORNING AS
MORE ENERGY DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CWA. WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS..AND
DON`T EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVER FAR EASTERN CWA TIL THIS EVENING.
KEPT A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TIL AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN CWA TIL
NOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER ANTICIPATED CLOUD AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/-RA AND IFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THRU SUNRISE AND THEN
GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY MID TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CAUSE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM AFTER 06Z THE WILL BE ESPECIALLY QUICK
TO FORM IN LOW LYING VALLEYS AND RIVER BOTTOMS. HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE I35 TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. THE FOG
AND ASSOCIATED CIGS WILL OFTEN BE LIFR-VLIFR AT TIMES BETWEEN 08Z
AND 15Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CONTINUING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. SPRINKLES AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS
MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. WET SOILS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BEGINNING
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH SO CHANCES ARE GENERALLY ONLY 20-30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORNING LOWS
NEAR 40 WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 48 70 51 74 / - 0 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 40 68 44 73 / - 0 0 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 42 71 49 75 / - 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 42 65 49 72 / 20 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 47 72 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 45 67 51 72 / 20 0 0 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 43 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 41 71 50 74 / - 0 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 47 70 49 74 / 20 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 45 70 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 46 71 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/04
000
FXUS64 KMAF 211738
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TODAY. SURFACE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION... A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE IN
PLACE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE LIMITED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO DAMPENING OVERNIGHT AS A MINOR TROUGH
TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN THERMAL
RIDGING ALOFT AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RETURN FLOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN LOW
CLOUDINESS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
BASIN/WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND APACHE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRANSLATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN
THIS MORNING...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION
THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. HARD TO COMPLETELY DISMISS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...HOWEVER...BUT THE NET EFFECT HERE WOULD BE TO
INCREASE WINDS MONDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HAVE
GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS LOW GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WHILE STAYING
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT FORECAST...
POPS ARE NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
EARLY MORNING RAWS OBSERVATIONS SHOW POOR TO FAIR RH RECOVERY ACROSS
MOST OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...RH/S
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 25% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 6500 FEET) AND MOUNTAIN
GAPS/PASSES. THERE COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CONDITIONS OF
WESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH ALONG WITH RH/S OF 15% THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE
CONDITIONS...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
FOR TONIGHT...THE WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
AN INCREASE IN 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR
TO FAIR RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED.
ON MONDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND MINIMUM RH/S
MAY DROP TO NEAR 15%.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 211736 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1136 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF PACKAGE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING
WITH CEILINGS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR. MOST SITES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 ARE NOW REPORTING VFR WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 35 ARE REPORTING IFR. EITHER WAY...EXPECT CEILINGS
TO IMPROVE TO BKN050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL SITES
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO EAST TEXAS AND
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HELP HEAT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 850
MB WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL KEEP BKN VFR CIGS IN THE
TAF THROUGH 22/02Z. CLOUDS SHOULD THEN SCATTER AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
DUE TO MOISTURE ON THE GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL
PREVAIL 3 SM AT ALL SITES BEGINNING AT 22/07-08Z BUT LOWER KACT
INTO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE METROPLEX WILL
SEE IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.UPDATE...
THIS MORNING/S VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEARING LINE TO THE WEST OF AN ABILENE TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE AS OF 11 AM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST
TEXAS MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE
THE CLEARING LINE PROGRESS EASTWARD. HAVE BUMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON/S
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHERE
SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS...A WET GROUND AND
CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
TODAY...AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES SO PLACED MENTION OF FOG IN
THE MORNING FORECAST AS WELL. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF STRATIFORM
RAINFALL EXISTS IN THE WACO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS
SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LVL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING SUBSIDENCE THROUGH NORTH TX BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW UPPER
AND MID LVL CLOUDS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER
NORTH TX...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
RESILIENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DURING MID AFTERNOON HRS.
TODAY`S HIGHS ARE TRICKY AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 60S THAT ARE IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER AT FORECAST TIME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUED TO
EXPAND NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...SO LOW CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY TO
HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT IF NOT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS...AND A DRY FORECAST LOOKS IN STORE
FOR THIS PERIOD AS WEAK UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AND BRINGING A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
NORTH TX. SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...AND 24-36 HRS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AND INTO MO VALLEY BY MONDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU NORTH TX
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING SOUTH THRU THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DID NOT PLACE TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN NATURE
AND THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER PER 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS...THINK
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW
DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL OR ANY SVR WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG INTO THE BACK OF THE EXITING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY BRING A
BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT CHANCES
ARE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL...DRY AIR THROUGH THE REGION. WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW REMAINING
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...SO DID NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIP INTO
THE CWA WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE. BEYOND THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN...WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN ANY ONE SOLUTION HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AS ANY RETURN OF GOOD QUALITY GULF MOISTURE SEEMS
UNLIKELY WITH TWO SHOTS OF COOL...DRY AIR COMING IN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 62 46 67 47 70 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 62 46 68 49 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 61 43 66 45 67 / 20 0 10 0 0
DENTON, TX 62 44 67 45 69 / 20 0 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 63 43 66 45 68 / 20 0 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 62 47 67 50 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 63 43 67 45 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 63 44 68 48 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 62 47 69 47 70 / 30 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
000
FXUS64 KLUB 211735
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
KLBB-VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS OTHER THAN A FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY MORNING.
KCDS-A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE COMPLICATING THIS FCST. ONCE AGAIN
STRATUS OR FOG SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER DARK ALTHOUGH EXACT
TIMING/MODE IS A BIT UNCLEAR. UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY SERVE
TO DELAY OR REDUCE THE FOG THREAT SOMEWHAT ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ONCE
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CIG/VSBY SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL LATE
MORNING ONCE AGAIN BEFORE CLEARING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL TX WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. SAID
RIDGE IS ALREADY UNDERGOING DEAMPLIFICATION AHEAD OF A TROF
APPROACHING THE ROCKIES...SO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN
MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IN TURN HELP PUSH A LEE TROF CLOSE
TO OUR WESTERN ZONES. PRESENCE OF ALREADY LOW DEWPOINTS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL ASSIST LOW-LEVEL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT BY MIDDAY AND
SECURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BREED
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FOR OUR NW ZONES WHERE
STRONGER 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR MORE DETAILS.
MAIN CHALLENGE INVOLVES THREAT FOR A ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT IN THE ERN ROLLING PLAINS. WESTERN
EXTENT OF A VAST POOL OF RICHER MOISTURE IN OK DID MANAGE TO CREEP
INTO OUR NERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT DOWNSLOPING FLOW IN THE WRN ROLLIN PLAINS
HAS THWARTED A FASTER WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG.
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SLY FLOW
SHOULD SECURE A RIBBON OF LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE ERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. CONSEQUENTLY LOW TEMPS
LOOK RATHER MILD FOR A CHANGE OFF THE CAPROCK...HOWEVER AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK MAY STILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...
AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SHIFTS. MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK FRONT FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
STILL ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND
THIS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FORECASTS ALL THE WAY INTO TUESDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH MAY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FCST. GFS
HAS STARTED TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.
GFS IS ALSO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT TROF PUSHING OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF
WHICH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH AND TIMING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST AND IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
JORDAN
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. A SURFACE TROF WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT
LEVEL INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS...IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...WILL REQUIRE MORE CARE AND
PREPARATION WITH ANY CONTROLLED BURNS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 68 30 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 67 32 64 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 67 33 67 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 69 29 68 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 69 33 69 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 69 32 69 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 70 32 71 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 69 40 67 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 68 37 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 68 41 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
000
FXUS64 KAMA 211726 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1126 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 21
AND 00Z. THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
AFTER 06Z. BASED ON TRENDS OF RECENT COLD FRONTS...HAVE INCLUDED AN
EARLIER FRONTAL ARRIVAL IN THE TAFS THAN IS SHOWN BY MODEL GUIDANCE.
EXPECT THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS BY AROUND 09Z AT KDHT AND
KGUY...12Z AT KAMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH
CLOUDS.
SJOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
MIXES TOWARDS THE SURFACE TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST THOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20
KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING KDHT AND KGUY TOWARD 22/1200Z
AND IS LIKELY TO BE INTRODUCED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED.
NUNEZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL DRY AND MILD FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS IN REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURES FROM A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TX WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A REGION
OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW IN
WESTERN OK. HAVE SEEN SOME OF THESE CLOUDS EDGE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS ERODE THIS MORNING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN
CONTINUES AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN TODAY. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE
60S. LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP WHICH
WILL PROVIDE MILDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HAVE ACCEPTED MOS GUIDANCE
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...
BRINGING THE FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS
REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST
REMAINS DRY WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH THE FRONT. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FIRST TROUGH AND DIG INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO HAVE A FURTHER NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE DRY SLOTTED SO CONTINUED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AGAIN KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS DRY WITH ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
ACCEPTED THE 00Z MEX NUMBERS FOR TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM TODAY.
SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH AS A RESULT
AND COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 20
PERCENT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED DRY TREND NEXT WEEK...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOK LOW AS 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/15
000
FXUS64 KFWD 211722 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
THIS MORNING/S VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. THE CLEARING LINE TO THE WEST OF AN ABILENE TO SAN
ANTONIO LINE AS OF 11 AM. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EAST
TEXAS MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE
THE CLEARING LINE PROGRESS EASTWARD. HAVE BUMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON/S
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHERE
SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS...A WET GROUND AND
CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED WITH -RA/-DZ. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TODAY AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS EVACUATE WITH EXITING UPPER LOW.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF...
DISSOLVING ANY HINT OF OLD BOUNDARY.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
TODAY...AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES SO PLACED MENTION OF FOG IN
THE MORNING FORECAST AS WELL. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF STRATIFORM
RAINFALL EXISTS IN THE WACO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS
SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LVL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING SUBSIDENCE THROUGH NORTH TX BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW UPPER
AND MID LVL CLOUDS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER
NORTH TX...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
RESILIENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DURING MID AFTERNOON HRS.
TODAY`S HIGHS ARE TRICKY AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 60S THAT ARE IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER AT FORECAST TIME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUED TO
EXPAND NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...SO LOW CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY TO
HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT IF NOT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS...AND A DRY FORECAST LOOKS IN STORE
FOR THIS PERIOD AS WEAK UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AND BRINGING A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
NORTH TX. SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...AND 24-36 HRS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AND INTO MO VALLEY BY MONDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU NORTH TX
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING SOUTH THRU THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DID NOT PLACE TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN NATURE
AND THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER PER 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS...THINK
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW
DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL OR ANY SVR WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG INTO THE BACK OF THE EXITING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY BRING A
BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT CHANCES
ARE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL...DRY AIR THROUGH THE REGION. WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW REMAINING
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...SO DID NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIP INTO
THE CWA WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE. BEYOND THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN...WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN ANY ONE SOLUTION HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AS ANY RETURN OF GOOD QUALITY GULF MOISTURE SEEMS
UNLIKELY WITH TWO SHOTS OF COOL...DRY AIR COMING IN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 62 46 67 47 70 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 62 46 68 49 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 61 43 66 45 67 / 20 0 10 0 0
DENTON, TX 62 44 67 45 69 / 20 0 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 63 43 66 45 68 / 20 0 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 62 47 67 50 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 63 43 67 45 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 63 44 68 48 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 62 47 69 47 70 / 30 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/58
000
FXUS64 KEWX 211704
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1104 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
BACKEDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ALMOST AT A STANDSTILL LATE THIS MORNING AS
MORE ENERGY DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CWA. WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVEMENT EASTWARD OF THE BACKEDGE OF THE CLOUDS..AND
DON`T EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVER FAR EASTERN CWA TIL THIS EVENING.
KEPT A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN TIL AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN CWA TIL
NOON GIVEN RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER ANTICIPATED CLOUD AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/-RA AND IFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THRU SUNRISE AND THEN
GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY MID TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CAUSE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM AFTER 06Z THE WILL BE ESPECIALLY QUICK
TO FORM IN LOW LYING VALLEYS AND RIVER BOTTOMS. HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE I35 TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. THE FOG
AND ASSOCIATED CIGS WILL OFTEN BE LIFR-VLIFR AT TIMES BETWEEN 08Z
AND 15Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CONTINUING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. SPRINKLES AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS
MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. WET SOILS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BEGINNING
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH SO CHANCES ARE GENERALLY ONLY 20-30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORNING LOWS
NEAR 40 WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 61 48 70 51 74 / - 0 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 40 68 44 73 / - 0 0 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 64 42 71 49 75 / - 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 60 42 65 49 72 / 20 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 47 72 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 60 45 67 51 72 / 20 0 0 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 43 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 62 41 71 50 74 / - 0 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 61 47 70 49 74 / 20 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 45 70 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 46 71 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
02/04
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211635 CCA
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1035 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW LOCATED OFF THE SW LOUISIANA COAST AT LATE MORNING WITH
UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS SE TX. STILL HAVE GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
RAIN ON RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HAVE RAISED
POPS A BIT FOR THE AFTN HOURS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP WILL END
COMPLETELY FOR MOST AREAS BY MID AFTN IF NOT SOONER. THICK BLANKET
OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
WITH EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT OVER
THE EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY THIS EVENING WITH NICE
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
TIDE LEVELS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALL THE SITES ARE REPORTING LEVELS BELOW
3 FEET WITH PLEASURE PIER DOWN TO 1.8 FEET AND PIER 21 DOWN TO 2.3
FEET. CURRENTLY MOVING INTO ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDE SO LEVELS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
NEW CFW HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE AREA.
35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWS SIGNS OF ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN IN
THE NEAR FUTURE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SLOWLY-EXITING UPPER
LOW/WAVE INTO THE SABINE REGION THROUGH NOON. SLOW ROTATION OF
THIS LIGHT RAIN PER RADAR WILL KEEP -RA OR -SHRA AROUND THROUGH A
GOOD MAJORITY OF THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
UNDER LIFTING MVFR BKN-OVC DECKS THROUGH SUNSET. DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUND...OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN DECK...AND LIGHTENED WINDS
BROUGHT ON BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURES...THE FORMATION OF EARLY SAT
EVENING FOG IS A MENTIONABLE LIKELIHOOD. CONSERVATIVE WITH
TAFS...LOWERING VISBIES DOWN INTO MVFR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET TO
IFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPO`ED LIFR UNDER MILE ACROSS
KCXO/KLBX...BUT BELIEVE THAT IF THESE SITES DO IN FACT LOWER TO LIFR
THEN THERE IS A HIGH PROB OF VLIFR FG AND MORE AREA-WIDE LIFR FOG
ISSUES THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. AS OF NOW A HEADS UP THAT MONDAY
MORNING DENSE FOG LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS LOW EXITS FAR ENOUGH NE`WARD
TO INTRODUCE SKC AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY EVENING
ONWARD. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
EAST TEXAS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND TAKE ALL RAINS
WITH IT. WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME POPS FOR SE TX DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH RAINS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE BASED ON CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES SOONER THAN EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH COOLS NIGHT AND MILD DAYS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...WARMER SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS WILL
BE CARRIED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY AS SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DRIES OUT ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS BACK TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. MOISTURE LEVELS DON`T INCREASE AGAIN
UNTIL THE WEEKEND...AND THIS COULD END UP BRINGING THE AREA OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN. 42
MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLIES WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING
FOR A GRADUAL SUBSIDEMENT OF SEAS AND A LOWERING OF HIGH COASTAL
WATER LEVELS. ADVISORIES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY...SCEC
ACROSS THE LOCAL BAYS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LAGGING RUN-UP FROM THIS RECENT SWELL
BROUGHT ON BY THIS PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY FETCH. FORECAST IS FOR
SHORT PERIOD 6 TO NEAR 10 FOOT WAVES TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4 TO 7 FEET
THIS EVENING UNDER RELAXING NORTHERLIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS
OUT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST SEAS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO A TIGHTER
BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT. N-NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BACK TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL AGGRESSIVELY CROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 46 70 50 74 / 40 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 46 70 49 75 / 40 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 54 68 58 73 / 30 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...35
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211632
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW LOCATED OFF THE SW LOUISIANA COAST AT LATE MORNING WITH
UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS SE TX. STILL HAVE GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT
RAIN ON RADAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. HAVE RAISED
POPS A BIT FOR THE AFTN HOURS ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP WILL END
COMPLETELY FOR MOST AREAS BY MID AFTN IF NOT SOONER. THICK BLANKET
OF LOW CLOUDS PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
WITH EASTERN AREAS LIKELY TO NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT OVER
THE EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY THIS EVENING WITH NICE
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
35
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWS SIGNS OF ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN IN
THE NEAR FUTURE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SLOWLY-EXITING UPPER
LOW/WAVE INTO THE SABINE REGION THROUGH NOON. SLOW ROTATION OF
THIS LIGHT RAIN PER RADAR WILL KEEP -RA OR -SHRA AROUND THROUGH A
GOOD MAJORITY OF THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
UNDER LIFTING MVFR BKN-OVC DECKS THROUGH SUNSET. DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUND...OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN DECK...AND LIGHTENED WINDS
BROUGHT ON BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURES...THE FORMATION OF EARLY SAT
EVENING FOG IS A MENTIONABLE LIKELIHOOD. CONSERVATIVE WITH
TAFS...LOWERING VISBIES DOWN INTO MVFR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET TO
IFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPO`ED LIFR UNDER MILE ACROSS
KCXO/KLBX...BUT BELIEVE THAT IF THESE SITES DO IN FACT LOWER TO LIFR
THEN THERE IS A HIGH PROB OF VLIFR FG AND MORE AREA-WIDE LIFR FOG
ISSUES THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. AS OF NOW A HEADS UP THAT MONDAY
MORNING DENSE FOG LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS LOW EXITS FAR ENOUGH NE`WARD
TO INTRODUCE SKC AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY EVENING
ONWARD. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
EAST TEXAS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND TAKE ALL RAINS
WITH IT. WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME POPS FOR SE TX DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH RAINS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE BASED ON CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES SOONER THAN EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH COOLS NIGHT AND MILD DAYS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...WARMER SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS WILL
BE CARRIED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY AS SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DRIES OUT ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS BACK TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. MOISTURE LEVELS DON`T INCREASE AGAIN
UNTIL THE WEEKEND...AND THIS COULD END UP BRINGING THE AREA OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN. 42
MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLIES WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING
FOR A GRADUAL SUBSIDEMENT OF SEAS AND A LOWERING OF HIGH COASTAL
WATER LEVELS. ADVISORIES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY...SCEC
ACROSS THE LOCAL BAYS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LAGGING RUN-UP FROM THIS RECENT SWELL
BROUGHT ON BY THIS PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY FETCH. FORECAST IS FOR
SHORT PERIOD 6 TO NEAR 10 FOOT WAVES TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4 TO 7 FEET
THIS EVENING UNDER RELAXING NORTHERLIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS
OUT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST SEAS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO A TIGHTER
BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT. N-NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BACK TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL AGGRESSIVELY CROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 61 46 70 50 74 / 40 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 60 46 70 49 75 / 40 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 54 68 58 73 / 30 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...35
000
FXUS64 KCRP 211631 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1031 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO ERODE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ERODE...DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE LONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED. THUS...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT MAINLY EAST OF A ROBSTOWN
TO BEEVILLE LINE...DECREASING THEM THE MOST OVER THE
VICTORIA/CALHOUN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LAST THE LONGEST.
ALSO...OBSERVATIONS AT KCRP AND PUBLIC CONTINUE TO REPORT LIGHT
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA WHERE CLOUDS ARE...SO DID INCLUDE
A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY...TIDE LEVELS
HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY AT BOB HALL PIER SO ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED A BIT EARLY. FARTHER NORTHEAST...LEVELS AT ROCKPORT JUST
BELOW 2 FEET NOW...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE THAT LOW JUST YET FARTHER
UP THE COAST. THUS...FELT BEST TO KEEP ADVISORY GOING TIL NOON
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS. FOR NOW...THAT WAS ALL OF THE CHANGES THAT
WERE NOTABLE.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS AT BOY019 AND BOY020 WERE NEAR 7 FEET AS OF 8 OR 9
AM...SO HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS ONLY UNTIL
NOON. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A 1007 MB SFC LOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF BUOY 42019 WL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH
TNT. THE ATTENDANT MID/UPR CLOSED LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE RIGHT NOW AND WL CONTINUE AN EWD TREK
TWDS LOUISIANA TDA. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING TREND WL BE
THE RESULT AS NVA AND RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM
THE WEST. DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FCST HIGHS
EACH DAY. LEANED TWDS THE COOLER NAM MOS FOR THE LOWS GIVEN THE
AIRMASS ORIGINS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
AVIATION...THE FCST PROBLEM TDA WL BE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WL REDEVELOP
WESTWARD TO AROUND ALI THROUGH 15Z. AFTER THAT TIME...CEILINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE TO MVFR LEVELS AND THEN SLOWLY ERODE FROM
THE WEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE RGN. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND (VCT AREA)
AFTER 18Z. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS WL DIMINISH BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN BE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS WL BEGIN DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TNT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY ACROSS INERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX. EVEN
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z ACROSS
THE ALI-VCT CORRIDOR. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF.
MARINE...A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS WL OCCUR
TDA AS THE 1007 SFC LOW MOVES ENEWD THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WL ALSO WEAKEN BUT WL BE SLOWER TO FALL. WL
ISSUE AN SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND EXTEND THE
SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 20Z TDA. WK NORTH WINDS TNT WL
TRANSITION TO WK EAST WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE WK SFC RDG AXIS
PUSHES EAST.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY AHD OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGD TO MOVE
ACROSS S TX ON MONDAY PROVIDING WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND THE MODELS
SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA TO PRODUCE
ISOL SHRA`S. THIS CONTINUES THRU MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE WITH TSRA`S
CHCS INCREASING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO S TX. CAPE...LI...OMEGA
ALL INCREASE AHD OF THE FRONTAL BDRY...BUT THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINS WELL N OF THE REGION AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED
COMPARED TO THIS PAST EVENT. THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING HVY RAIN NOR
SVR TSRA`S. HAVE KEPT GENERALLY 30 PERCENT ON TUE WITH RAIN CHCS
DIMINISHING FROM N TO S THRU TUE NIGHT. BY WED...PRECIP SHOULD END
AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACROSS THE REGION AND USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LOW IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS MEX AND APPROACH TX BY FRI WITH A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DVLPG AND IN TURN BEGINING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 49 73 58 77 / 0 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 65 46 71 53 77 / 10 0 0 10 10
LAREDO 78 50 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 73 47 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 10 20
ROCKPORT 67 52 72 59 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
COTULLA 73 45 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 10 20
KINGSVILLE 74 47 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 69 54 72 61 75 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...REFUGIO.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 211504
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
904 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...A COOLER AND DRIER W-NW SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX WITH A MARINE SC DECK PERSISTING JUST ALONG
AND OFFSHORE OF PADRE ISLAND. THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD
ALLOW THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT TODAY DESPITE THE
CAA WITH THE MERCURY APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS WELL REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT ZFP WORDING AND
DO NO EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...THE 3 LOCAL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES WITH A
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND THIS MRNG. THE LOW BKN TO OVC CLD COVER
THAT WAS NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS BRO EARLIER THIS MRNG CONTINUES
TO ERODE AWAY TWD THE EAST. EXPECT CLEAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER EAST TNGT INTO
SUN MRNG WITH SKC CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
&&
.MARINE...THE 8 AM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATES WINDS WERE
WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 16 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 21 KTS AND SEAS WERE
AROUND 7 FT WITH AN 8 SEC PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 16Z. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW CRITERIA...BUT SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET OFFSHORE.
WILL LIKELY LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AS FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH TIME. A TRANSITION TO SCEC CONDITIONS THRU MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTN HRS TDA CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH
OVER TIME. SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU THIS AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL THRU SUN INTO MON. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND IS EXPECTED THRU THAT TIME. RETURN
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST SETS UP LATER MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EWD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNSVILLE 79 56 79 61 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 78 53 80 61 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 80 57 79 63 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 57 78 64 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 60 73 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10
AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
THE GRAPHICAST PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE/GRAPHICAST.HTM
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...57
MESO/GRAPHICAST...VEGA
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211229
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWS SIGNS OF ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN IN
THE NEAR FUTURE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SLOWLY-EXITING UPPER
LOW/WAVE INTO THE SABINE REGION THROUGH NOON. SLOW ROTATION OF
THIS LIGHT RAIN PER RADAR WILL KEEP -RA OR -SHRA AROUND THROUGH A
GOOD MAJORITY OF THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
UNDER LIFTING MVFR BKN-OVC DECKS THROUGH SUNSET. DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUND...OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN DECK...AND LIGHTENED WINDS
BROUGHT ON BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURES...THE FORMATION OF EARLY SAT
EVENING FOG IS A MENTIONABLE LIKELIHOOD. CONSERVATIVE WITH
TAFS...LOWERING VISBIES DOWN INTO MVFR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET TO
IFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPO`ED LIFR UNDER MILE ACROSS
KCXO/KLBX...BUT BELIEVE THAT IF THESE SITES DO IN FACT LOWER TO LIFR
THEN THERE IS A HIGH PROB OF VLIFR FG AND MORE AREA-WIDE LIFR FOG
ISSUES THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. AS OF NOW A HEADS UP THAT MONDAY
MORNING DENSE FOG LOOKS MORE LIKELY AS LOW EXITS FAR ENOUGH NE`WARD
TO INTRODUCE SKC AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY EVENING
ONWARD. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
EAST TEXAS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND TAKE ALL RAINS
WITH IT. WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME POPS FOR SE TX DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH RAINS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE BASED ON CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES SOONER THAN EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH COOLS NIGHT AND MILD DAYS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...WARMER SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS WILL
BE CARRIED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY AS SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DRIES OUT ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS BACK TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. MOISTURE LEVELS DON`T INCREASE AGAIN
UNTIL THE WEEKEND...AND THIS COULD END UP BRINGING THE AREA OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN. 42
MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLIES WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING
FOR A GRADUAL SUBSIDEMENT OF SEAS AND A LOWERING OF HIGH COASTAL
WATER LEVELS. ADVISORIES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY...SCEC
ACROSS THE LOCAL BAYS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LAGGING RUN-UP FROM THIS RECENT SWELL
BROUGHT ON BY THIS PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY FETCH. FORECAST IS FOR
SHORT PERIOD 6 TO NEAR 10 FOOT WAVES TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4 TO 7 FEET
THIS EVENING UNDER RELAXING NORTHERLIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS
OUT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST SEAS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO A TIGHTER
BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT. N-NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BACK TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL AGGRESSIVELY CROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 46 70 50 74 / 30 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 46 70 49 75 / 30 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 54 68 58 73 / 30 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211226
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWS SIGNS OF ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN IN
THE NEAR FUTURE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SLOWLY-EXITING UPPER
LOW/WAVE INTO THE SABINE REGION THROUGH NOON. SLOW ROTATION OF
THIS LIGHT RAIN PER RADAR WILL KEEP -RA OR -SHRA AROUND THROUGH A
GOOD MAJORITY OF THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
UNDER LIFTING MVFR BKN-OVC DECKS THROUGH SUNSET. DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUND... OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN DECK...AND LIGHTENED WINDS
BROUGHT ON BY SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURES...THE FORMATION OF EARLY SAT
EVENING FOG IS A MENTIONABLE LIKELIHOOD. CONSERVATIVE WITH
TAFS...LOWERING VISBIES DOWN INTO MVFR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET TO
IFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPO`ED LIFR UNDER MILE ACROSS
KCXO/KLBX...BUT BELIEVE THAT IF THESE SITES DO IN FACT LOWER TO LIFR
THEN THERE IS A HIGH PROB OF VLIFR FG AND MORE AREA-WIDE LIFR FOG
ISSUES THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. AS OF NOW A HEADS UP THAT MONDAY
MORNING DENSE FOG LOOKS MORE MORE LIKELY AS LOW EXITS FAR ENOUGH
NE`WARD TO INTRODUCE SKC AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING
ONWARD. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
EAST TEXAS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND TAKE ALL RAINS
WITH IT. WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME POPS FOR SE TX DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH RAINS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE BASED ON CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES SOONER THAN EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH COOLS NIGHT AND MILD DAYS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...WARMER SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS WILL
BE CARRIED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY AS SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DRIES OUT ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS BACK TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. MOISTURE LEVELS DON`T INCREASE AGAIN
UNTIL THE WEEKEND...AND THIS COULD END UP BRINGING THE AREA OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN. 42
MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLIES WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING
FOR A GRADUAL SUBSIDEMENT OF SEAS AND A LOWERING OF HIGH COASTAL
WATER LEVELS. ADVISORIES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY...SCEC
ACROSS THE LOCAL BAYS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LAGGING RUN-UP FROM THIS RECENT SWELL
BROUGHT ON BY THIS PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY FETCH. FORECAST IS FOR
SHORT PERIOD 6 TO NEAR 10 FOOT WAVES TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4 TO 7 FEET
THIS EVENING UNDER RELAXING NORTHERLIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS
OUT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST SEAS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO A TIGHTER
BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT. N-NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BACK TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL AGGRESSIVELY CROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 46 70 50 74 / 30 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 46 70 49 75 / 30 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 54 68 58 73 / 30 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211225
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWS SIGNS OF ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN IN
THE NEAR FUTURE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SLOWLY-EXITING UPPER
LOW/WAVE INTO THE SABINE REGION THROUGH NOON. SLOW ROTATION OF
THIS LIGHT RAIN PER RADAR WILL KEEP -RA OR -SHRA AROUND THROUGH A
GOOD MAJORITY OF THE MORNING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
UNDER LIFTING MVFR BKN-OVC DECKS THROUGH SUNSET. DUE TO THE
SATURATED GROUND... OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN DECK...AND LIGHTENED
WINDS BROUGHT ON SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURES...THE FORMATION OF
EARLY SAT EVENING FOG IS A MENTIONABLE LIKELIHOOD. CONSERVATIVE
WITH TAFS...LOWERING VISBIES DOWN INTO MVFR A FEW HOURS PAST
SUNSET TO IFR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPO`ED LIFR UNDER MILE
ACROSS KCXO/KLBX...BUT BELIEVE THAT IF THESE SITES DO IN FACT LOWER
TO LIFR THEN THERE IS A HIGH PROB OF VLIFR FG AND MORE AREA-WIDE
LIFR FOG ISSUES THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. AS OF NOW A HEADS UP
THAT MONDAY MORNING DENSE FOG LOOKS MORE MORE LIKELY AS LOW EXITS
FAR ENOUGH NE`WARD TO INTRODUCE SKC AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
SUNDAY EVENING ONWARD. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
EAST TEXAS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND TAKE ALL RAINS
WITH IT. WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME POPS FOR SE TX DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH RAINS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE BASED ON CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES SOONER THAN EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH COOLS NIGHT AND MILD DAYS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...WARMER SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS WILL
BE CARRIED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY AS SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DRIES OUT ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS BACK TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. MOISTURE LEVELS DON`T INCREASE AGAIN
UNTIL THE WEEKEND...AND THIS COULD END UP BRINGING THE AREA OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN. 42
MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLIES WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING
FOR A GRADUAL SUBSIDEMENT OF SEAS AND A LOWERING OF HIGH COASTAL
WATER LEVELS. ADVISORIES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY...SCEC
ACROSS THE LOCAL BAYS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LAGGING RUN-UP FROM THIS RECENT SWELL
BROUGHT ON BY THIS PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY FETCH. FORECAST IS FOR
SHORT PERIOD 6 TO NEAR 10 FOOT WAVES TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4 TO 7 FEET
THIS EVENING UNDER RELAXING NORTHERLIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS
OUT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST SEAS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO A TIGHTER
BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT. N-NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BACK TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL AGGRESSIVELY CROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 46 70 50 74 / 30 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 46 70 49 75 / 30 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 54 68 58 73 / 30 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KSJT 211149
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
549 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE LOW LVL /850-925MB/ WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
MORNING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE TO
ADVECT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
MORNING AND WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 16Z AT KABI. MVFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL TX MAY ALSO MAKE
IT AS FAR WEST AS KBBD THRU 17Z. AFTER THE LOW CIGS/FOG BURN OFF
LATER THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE A RETURN OF SOME
IFR CIGS AFT 06Z TNGT AT KBBD AND KJCT. SINCE THIS IS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WILL INSERT A SCT CLOUD GROUP FOR NOW.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE...AS
UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL TEXAS ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH...AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE TODAY IN MIDDLE OF THE AIRMASS AND
FULL SUN. GUIDANCE IS USUALLY CLOSE IN SUCH SITUATIONS. HOWEVER
WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT....SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY...
WHERE GOOD NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
04
LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO NOT BE AS COOL. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
STAY MIXED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/
ADVANCEMENT IS INDICATED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME THERMAL RIDGING INDICATED
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLANIS MONDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
BE A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR OUR AREA...REGARDLESS OF THE
SPECIFIC MODEL DIFFERENCES. COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND RESIDE IN OUR REGION TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIVING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE MIDWEST AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING
ON HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...MAY SEE A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA. APPEARS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THAT
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WOULD BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
EAST.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 65 44 71 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 67 42 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 66 36 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 211149 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
549 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO DEEPENS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE AS FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE LIMITED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO DAMPENING OVERNIGHT AS A MINOR TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT AND
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RETURN FLOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN LOW
CLOUDINESS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
BASIN/WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND APACHE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRANSLATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN
THIS MORNING...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION
THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. HARD TO COMPLETELY DISMISS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...HOWEVER...BUT THE NET EFFECT HERE WOULD BE TO
INCREASE WINDS MONDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HAVE
GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS LOW GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WHILE STAYING
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT FORECAST...
POPS ARE NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...
EARLY MORNING RAWS OBSERVATIONS SHOW POOR TO FAIR RH RECOVERY ACROSS
MOST OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...RH/S
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 25% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 6500 FEET) AND MOUNTAIN
GAPS/PASSES. THERE COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CONDITIONS OF
WESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH ALONG WITH RH/S OF 15% THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE
CONDITIONS...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
FOR TONIGHT...THE WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
AN INCREASE IN 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR
TO FAIR RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED.
ON MONDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND MINIMUM RH/S
MAY DROP TO NEAR 15%.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
000
FXUS64 KLUB 211147
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
ONLY IMPACTS OF CONCERN WILL BE DEALT TO CDS THIS PERIOD. LAYER
OF IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN
PANHANDLE SOUTH TO THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...HOWEVER
INDICATIONS ARE VFR CRITERIA WILL RETURN TO CDS AROUND 14Z AS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN SWLY USHERING IN DRIER AIR. WINDS
WILL BACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AT BOTH LBB AND
CDS...WITH A RETURN OF IFR STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG EXPECTED AT
CDS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL TX WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE. SAID
RIDGE IS ALREADY UNDERGOING DEAMPLIFICATION AHEAD OF A TROF
APPROACHING THE ROCKIES...SO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEEPEN
MARKEDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IN TURN HELP PUSH A LEE TROF CLOSE
TO OUR WESTERN ZONES. PRESENCE OF ALREADY LOW DEWPOINTS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL ASSIST LOW-LEVEL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT BY MIDDAY AND
SECURE ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BREED
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS PRIMARILY FOR OUR NW ZONES WHERE
STRONGER 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR MORE DETAILS.
MAIN CHALLENGE INVOLVES THREAT FOR A ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG LATER TONIGHT IN THE ERN ROLLING PLAINS. WESTERN
EXTENT OF A VAST POOL OF RICHER MOISTURE IN OK DID MANAGE TO CREEP
INTO OUR NERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT DOWNSLOPING FLOW IN THE WRN ROLLIN PLAINS
HAS THWARTED A FASTER WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS AND FOG.
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SLY FLOW
SHOULD SECURE A RIBBON OF LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE ERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. CONSEQUENTLY LOW TEMPS
LOOK RATHER MILD FOR A CHANGE OFF THE CAPROCK...HOWEVER AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK MAY STILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS AS WINDS DIMINISH LATE IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...
AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF SHIFTS. MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK FRONT FOR
SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.
STILL ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND
THIS COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES FORECASTS ALL THE WAY INTO TUESDAY.
ECMWF CONTINUES WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH MAY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY FCST. GFS
HAS STARTED TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH AND SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES.
GFS IS ALSO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT TROF PUSHING OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF
WHICH IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH AND TIMING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST AND IT SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
JORDAN
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. A SURFACE TROF WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT
LEVEL INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS...IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...WILL REQUIRE MORE CARE AND
PREPARATION WITH ANY CONTROLLED BURNS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 68 30 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 67 32 64 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 67 33 67 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 69 29 68 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 69 33 69 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 69 32 69 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 70 32 71 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 69 40 67 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 68 37 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 68 41 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14/93
000
FXUS64 KFWD 211143 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
IFR CIGS HAVE RETURNED WITH -RA/-DZ. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TODAY AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS EVACUATE WITH EXITING UPPER LOW.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF...
DISSOLVING ANY HINT OF OLD BOUNDARY.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
TODAY...AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES SO PLACED MENTION OF FOG IN
THE MORNING FORECAST AS WELL. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF STRATIFORM
RAINFALL EXISTS IN THE WACO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS
SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LVL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING SUBSIDENCE THROUGH NORTH TX BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW UPPER
AND MID LVL CLOUDS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER
NORTH TX...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
RESILIENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DURING MID AFTERNOON HRS.
TODAY`S HIGHS ARE TRICKY AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 60S THAT ARE IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER AT FORECAST TIME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUED TO
EXPAND NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...SO LOW CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY TO
HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT IF NOT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS...AND A DRY FORECAST LOOKS IN STORE
FOR THIS PERIOD AS WEAK UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AND BRINGING A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
NORTH TX. SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...AND 24-36 HRS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AND INTO MO VALLEY BY MONDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU NORTH TX
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING SOUTH THRU THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DID NOT PLACE TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN NATURE
AND THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER PER 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS...THINK
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW
DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL OR ANY SVR WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG INTO THE BACK OF THE EXITING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY BRING A
BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT CHANCES
ARE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL...DRY AIR THROUGH THE REGION. WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW REMAINING
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...SO DID NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIP INTO
THE CWA WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE. BEYOND THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN...WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN ANY ONE SOLUTION HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AS ANY RETURN OF GOOD QUALITY GULF MOISTURE SEEMS
UNLIKELY WITH TWO SHOTS OF COOL...DRY AIR COMING IN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 62 46 67 47 70 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 62 46 68 49 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 61 43 66 45 67 / 20 0 10 0 0
DENTON, TX 62 44 67 45 69 / 20 0 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 63 43 66 45 68 / 20 0 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 62 47 67 50 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 63 43 67 45 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 63 44 68 48 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 62 47 69 47 70 / 30 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/69
000
FXUS64 KEWX 211139
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
539 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/-RA AND IFR-MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I35
CORRIDOR WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THRU SUNRISE AND THEN
GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY MID TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AMPLE SOIL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CAUSE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO FORM AFTER 06Z THE WILL BE ESPECIALLY QUICK
TO FORM IN LOW LYING VALLEYS AND RIVER BOTTOMS. HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE I35 TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. THE FOG
AND ASSOCIATED CIGS WILL OFTEN BE LIFR-VLIFR AT TIMES BETWEEN 08Z
AND 15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CONTINUING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. SPRINKLES AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS
MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. WET SOILS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BEGINNING
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH SO CHANCES ARE GENERALLY ONLY 20-30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORNING LOWS
NEAR 40 WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 48 70 51 74 / - 0 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 40 68 44 73 / - 0 0 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 42 71 49 75 / - 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 42 65 49 72 / - 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 47 72 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 45 67 51 72 / 10 0 0 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 43 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 41 71 50 74 / - 0 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 47 70 49 74 / 10 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 45 70 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 46 71 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/01
000
FXUS64 KAMA 211122 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
522 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS DRIER AIR
MIXES TOWARDS THE SURFACE TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST THOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20
KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING KDHT AND KGUY TOWARD 22/1200Z
AND IS LIKELY TO BE INTRODUCED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED.
NUNEZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL DRY AND MILD FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS IN REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURES FROM A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TX WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A REGION
OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW IN
WESTERN OK. HAVE SEEN SOME OF THESE CLOUDS EDGE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS ERODE THIS MORNING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN
CONTINUES AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN TODAY. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE
60S. LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP WHICH
WILL PROVIDE MILDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HAVE ACCEPTED MOS GUIDANCE
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...
BRINGING THE FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS
REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST
REMAINS DRY WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH THE FRONT. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FIRST TROUGH AND DIG INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO HAVE A FURTHER NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE DRY SLOTTED SO CONTINUED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AGAIN KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS DRY WITH ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
ACCEPTED THE 00Z MEX NUMBERS FOR TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND.
CLK
FIRE WEATHER...
A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM TODAY.
SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH AS A RESULT
AND COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 20
PERCENT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED DRY TREND NEXT WEEK...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOK LOW AS 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.
CLK
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/05
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 211051
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
346 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND MILD PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE BORDERLAND OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WITH THE BORDERLAND REMAINING IN A DRY MOSTLY WEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS ALOFT MOVING PAST US. THESE TROUGHS ARE TOO
FAR NORTH TO BRING MUCH OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS
AND AFTERNOON BREEZES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS
PERIOD. A BIT DEEPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THANKSGIVING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND MOSTLY MILD WEEK AHEAD AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. PATTERN WILL STILL BE ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL UPPER TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHER U.S WITH JUST THE
BASES OF THE TROUGHS OVER OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. THE FIRST
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS FOR US. TIMING IS BAD FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS AS WELL
LATE TO USE AFTERNOON MIXING.
SECOND TROUGH DIGS DOWN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...OVER THE ROCKIES
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS JUST A BIT TOO FAST TO USE THE
AFTERNOON MIXING...SO AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS LIKELY FROM THIS.
WITH THIS SYSTEM DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH IT IS ABLE TO DRAG A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO THE CWA. AGAIN MODELS SHOWING LITTLE MOISTURE WITH
THIS BUT FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.
ONLY OTHER FEATURE TO BE CONCERNED WITH IS SUB TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING FROM OUT NEAR HAWAII AND ORGANIZING WEST OF THE BAJA TUESDAY
AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY. FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AS IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ON FRIDAY IT
WILL PUMP MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER GFS SHOWS DEFORMATION ZONE
DROPPING SOUTH AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
THIS HALTS THE MOISTURE AND RAIN NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF US. IN FACT
QUICK LOOK AT 06Z GFS RUN SHOWS EVEN STRONGER FORCING BY THIS
DEFORMATION ZONE IN KEEPING THE MOISTURE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...STILL SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. ECMWF IN QUITE CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SO WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z-22/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO PICK UP A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED DRY AND
MAINLY CLEAR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS TO THE LOWER TWENTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVING
IN MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 68 40 69 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 63 37 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 67 36 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 38 68 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 25 55 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 31 67 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 62 31 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 67 33 70 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 68 32 70 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17/HEFNER
000
FXUS64 KFWD 211048
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
448 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES SO PLACED MENTION OF FOG IN
THE MORNING FORECAST AS WELL. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF STRATIFORM
RAINFALL EXISTS IN THE WACO AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS
SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TX. THIS UPPER LVL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TODAY BRINGING SUBSIDENCE THROUGH NORTH TX BRINGING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW UPPER
AND MID LVL CLOUDS DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS OVER
NORTH TX...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE
RESILIENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DURING MID AFTERNOON HRS.
TODAY`S HIGHS ARE TRICKY AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 60S THAT ARE IN THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER AT FORECAST TIME LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUED TO
EXPAND NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...SO LOW CLOUDS LOOK LIKELY TO
HANG IN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT IF NOT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS...AND A DRY FORECAST LOOKS IN STORE
FOR THIS PERIOD AS WEAK UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS AND BRINGING A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
NORTH TX. SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...AND 24-36 HRS OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SEND SOME GULF
MOISTURE BACK NORTH THROUGH THE CWA AND INTO MO VALLEY BY MONDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU NORTH TX
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVING SOUTH THRU THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...DID NOT PLACE TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST AS THE GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW IN NATURE
AND THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF THE RED RIVER PER 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS...THINK
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW
DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL OR ANY SVR WX ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY TUESDAY EVENING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG INTO THE BACK OF THE EXITING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY BRING A
BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT THRU THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT CHANCES
ARE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COOL...DRY AIR THROUGH THE REGION. WITH MERIDIONAL FLOW REMAINING
OVER THE PLAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RETURN SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME...SO DID NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR PRECIP INTO
THE CWA WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE. BEYOND THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN...WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN ANY ONE SOLUTION HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AS ANY RETURN OF GOOD QUALITY GULF MOISTURE SEEMS
UNLIKELY WITH TWO SHOTS OF COOL...DRY AIR COMING IN EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 62 46 67 47 70 / 20 0 0 0 0
WACO, TX 62 46 68 49 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
PARIS, TX 61 43 66 45 67 / 20 0 10 0 0
DENTON, TX 62 44 67 45 69 / 20 0 10 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 63 43 66 45 68 / 20 0 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 62 47 67 50 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
TERRELL, TX 63 43 67 45 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 63 44 68 48 70 / 40 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 62 47 69 47 70 / 30 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 211046
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
446 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A 1007 MB SFC LOW LOCATED
JUST EAST OF BUOY 42019 WL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD THROUGH
TNT. THE ATTENDANT MID/UPR CLOSED LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE RIGHT NOW AND WL CONTINUE AN EWD TREK
TWDS LOUISIANA TDA. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING TREND WL BE
THE RESULT AS NVA AND RIDGING AT ALL LVLS BUILDS INTO THE CWA FROM
THE WEST. DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FCST HIGHS
EACH DAY. LEANED TWDS THE COOLER NAM MOS FOR THE LOWS GIVEN THE
AIRMASS ORIGINS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...THE FCST PROBLEM TDA WL BE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROGS AND FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IFR CONDITIONS WL REDEVELOP
WESTWARD TO AROUND ALI THROUGH 15Z. AFTER THAT TIME...CEILINGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO RISE TO MVFR LEVELS AND THEN SLOWLY ERODE FROM
THE WEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE RGN. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND (VCT AREA)
AFTER 18Z. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS WL DIMINISH BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN BE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS WL BEGIN DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z TNT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY ACROSS INERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TX. EVEN
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z ACROSS
THE ALI-VCT CORRIDOR. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF.
&&
.MARINE...A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS WL OCCUR
TDA AS THE 1007 SFC LOW MOVES ENEWD THROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND NRN
GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS WL ALSO WEAKEN BUT WL BE SLOWER TO FALL. WL
ISSUE AN SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 12Z AND EXTEND THE
SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 20Z TDA. WK NORTH WINDS TNT WL
TRANSITION TO WK EAST WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE WK SFC RDG AXIS
PUSHES EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY AHD OF THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGD TO MOVE
ACROSS S TX ON MONDAY PROVIDING WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND THE MODELS
SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA TO PRODUCE
ISOL SHRA`S. THIS CONTINUES THRU MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE WITH TSRA`S
CHCS INCREASING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO S TX. CAPE...LI...OMEGA
ALL INCREASE AHD OF THE FRONTAL BDRY...BUT THE MAIN UPPER ENERGY
REMAINS WELL N OF THE REGION AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED
COMPARED TO THIS PAST EVENT. THEREFORE AM NOT EXPECTING HVY RAIN NOR
SVR TSRA`S. HAVE KEPT GENERALLY 30 PERCENT ON TUE WITH RAIN CHCS
DIMINISHING FROM N TO S THRU TUE NIGHT. BY WED...PRECIP SHOULD END
AS HIGH PRESSURE BLDS ACROSS THE REGION AND USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LOW IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS MEX AND APPROACH TX BY FRI WITH A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW DVLPG AND IN TURN BEGINING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 72 49 73 58 77 / 0 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 68 46 71 53 77 / 10 0 0 10 10
LAREDO 77 50 80 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 74 47 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 10 20
ROCKPORT 71 52 72 59 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
COTULLA 75 45 76 54 77 / 0 0 0 10 20
KINGSVILLE 73 47 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 71 54 72 61 75 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KMAF 211028
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE AS FORCING AND
MOISTURE ARE LIMITED. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO DAMPENING OVERNIGHT AS A MINOR TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT AND
A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RETURN FLOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN LOW
CLOUDINESS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
BASIN/WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WILL LEAD TO STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND APACHE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRANSLATE SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
GFS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUN
THIS MORNING...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION
THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. HARD TO COMPLETELY DISMISS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...HOWEVER...BUT THE NET EFFECT HERE WOULD BE TO
INCREASE WINDS MONDAY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HAVE
GENERALLY UNDERCUT MOS LOW GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES WHILE STAYING
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT FORECAST...
POPS ARE NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
EARLY MORNING RAWS OBSERVATIONS SHOW POOR TO FAIR RH RECOVERY ACROSS
MOST OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...RH/S
WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 15 TO NEAR 25% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL LIKELY BRING GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (ABOVE 6500 FEET) AND MOUNTAIN
GAPS/PASSES. THERE COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CONDITIONS OF
WESTERLY 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH ALONG WITH RH/S OF 15% THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BRIEF AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE
CONDITIONS...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
FOR TONIGHT...THE WINDS IN THE MID-LEVELS INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
AN INCREASE IN 20 FOOT WESTERLY WINDS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR
TO FAIR RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED.
ON MONDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND MINIMUM RH/S
MAY DROP TO NEAR 15%.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 69 38 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 72 34 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 71 40 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 74 43 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 68 41 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 70 34 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 67 26 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 35 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 69 35 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 73 32 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/70
000
FXUS64 KHGX 211019
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADD MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EAST TEXAS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND TAKE ALL RAINS
WITH IT. WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME POPS FOR SE TX DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH RAINS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE BASED ON CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES SOONER THAN EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH COOLS NIGHT AND MILD DAYS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...WARMER SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS WILL
BE CARRIED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY AS SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DRIES OUT ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS BACK TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. MOISTURE LEVELS DON`T INCREASE AGAIN
UNTIL THE WEEKEND...AND THIS COULD END UP BRINGING THE AREA OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN. 42
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLIES WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING
FOR A GRADUAL SUBSIDEMENT OF SEAS AND A LOWERING OF HIGH COASTAL
WATER LEVELS. ADVISORIES ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE DAY...SCEC
ACROSS THE LOCAL BAYS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LAGGING RUN-UP FROM THIS RECENT SWELL
BROUGHT ON BY THIS PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY FETCH. FORECAST IS FOR
SHORT PERIOD 6 TO NEAR 10 FOOT WAVES TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4 TO 7 FEET
THIS EVENING UNDER RELAXING NORTHERLIES. AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS
OUT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN-MOST SEAS WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO A TIGHTER
BACKSIDE PRESSURE GRADIENT. N-NE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BACK TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT AND A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT WILL AGGRESSIVELY CROSS
THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 46 70 50 74 / 30 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 46 70 49 75 / 30 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 54 68 58 73 / 30 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KAMA 210956
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
356 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL DRY AND MILD FALL-LIKE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS IN REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURES FROM A COUPLE OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH TX WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A REGION
OF LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW IN
WESTERN OK. HAVE SEEN SOME OF THESE CLOUDS EDGE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS ERODE THIS MORNING AS
IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN
CONTINUES AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN TODAY. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPS UP INTO THE
60S. LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP WHICH
WILL PROVIDE MILDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. HAVE ACCEPTED MOS GUIDANCE
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...
BRINGING THE FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS
REACH INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. FORECAST
REMAINS DRY WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
WITH THE FRONT. NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FIRST TROUGH AND DIG INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES
TO HAVE A FURTHER NORTHERN TRACK WITH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
PANHANDLES WILL BE DRY SLOTTED SO CONTINUED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY.
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AGAIN KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
REMAINS DRY WITH ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS DRY NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
ACCEPTED THE 00Z MEX NUMBERS FOR TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND.
CLK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM TODAY.
SOUTHERLY 20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH AS A RESULT
AND COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 20
PERCENT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE TODAY. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED DRY TREND NEXT WEEK...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOK LOW AS 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH.
CLK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 66 34 60 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 5
BEAVER OK 59 36 55 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 5
BOISE CITY OK 62 31 56 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 5
BORGER TX 65 39 62 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
BOYS RANCH TX 66 32 61 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 5
CANYON TX 66 32 60 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 5
CLARENDON TX 67 38 64 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 5
DALHART TX 63 31 59 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
GUYMON OK 60 34 57 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 5
HEREFORD TX 66 31 61 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 5
LIPSCOMB TX 62 38 57 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 5
PAMPA TX 64 38 60 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 5
SHAMROCK TX 66 40 63 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 5
WELLINGTON TX 67 40 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 5
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/05
000
FXUS64 KHGX 210946
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EAST TEXAS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND TAKE ALL RAINS
WITH IT. WILL NEED TO CARRY SOME POPS FOR SE TX DURING THE DAY TODAY
WITH RAINS COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE BASED ON CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES SOONER THAN EXPECTED COULD RESULT IN WARMER
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY
AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH COOLS NIGHT AND MILD DAYS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON MONDAY...WARMER SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE...AND
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CHANCE POPS WILL
BE CARRIED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARY AS SOME MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING COULD RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS DRIES OUT ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS BACK TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING. MOISTURE LEVELS DON`T INCREASE AGAIN
UNTIL THE WEEKEND...AND THIS COULD END UP BRINGING THE AREA OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 46 70 50 74 / 30 0 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 46 70 49 75 / 30 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 54 68 58 73 / 30 0 0 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KEWX 210931
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CONTINUING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. SPRINKLES AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS
MORNING EAST OF A LINE FROM BURNET TO SAN MARCOS TO HALLETTSVILLE
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE REGION A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. WET SOILS...CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ENABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF BEGINNING
SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH SO CHANCES ARE GENERALLY ONLY 20-30
PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORNING LOWS
NEAR 40 WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 66 48 70 51 74 / - 0 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 65 40 68 44 73 / - 0 0 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 42 71 49 75 / - 0 0 0 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 42 65 49 72 / - 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 47 72 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 45 67 51 72 / 10 0 0 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 43 70 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 41 71 50 74 / - 0 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 47 70 49 74 / 10 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 45 70 52 74 / 0 0 0 0 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 70 46 71 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/01
000
FXUS64 KSJT 210931 CCA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE...AS
UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL TEXAS ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH...AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE TODAY IN MIDDLE OF THE AIRMASS AND
FULL SUN. GUIDANCE IS USUALLY CLOSE IN SUCH SITUATIONS. HOWEVER
WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT....SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY...
WHERE GOOD NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
04
.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO NOT BE AS COOL. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
STAY MIXED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/
ADVANCEMENT IS INDICATED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME THERMAL RIDGING INDICATED
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLANIS MONDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
BE A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR OUR AREA...REGARDLESS OF THE
SPECIFIC MODEL DIFFERENCES. COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND RESIDE IN OUR REGION TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIVING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE MIDWEST AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING
ON HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...MAY SEE A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA. APPEARS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THAT
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WOULD BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
EAST.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 65 44 71 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 67 42 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 66 36 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 210926
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
326 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNRISE...AS
UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL TEXAS ALSO MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
MPH...AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
WENT CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE TODAY IN MIDDLE OF THE AIRMASS AND
FULL SUN. GUIDANCE IS USUALLY CLOSE IN SUCH SITUATIONS. HOWEVER
WENT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT....SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY...
WHERE GOOD NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
04
.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY FOR
OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO NOT BE AS COOL. BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
STAY MIXED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/
ADVANCEMENT IS INDICATED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME THERMAL RIDGING INDICATED
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLANIS MONDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH PROGRESSING TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON TUESDAY. THOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
BE A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR OUR AREA...REGARDLESS OF THE
SPECIFIC MODEL DIFFERENCES. COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND RESIDE IN OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIVING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE MIDWEST AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING
ON HOW THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...MAY SEE A REINFORCING SURGE OF
COOLER AIR INTO OUR AREA. APPEARS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...THAT
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WOULD BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
EAST.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 65 44 71 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 67 42 73 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 66 36 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBRO 210827
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
227 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MIDLEVEL LOW CROSSING TEXAS CURRENTLY WITH SFC REFLECTION
BEGINNING TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NW GULF. DRY SLOT WRAPPING
INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL HAVE SKIES CLEAR AREAWIDE BY SUNRISE.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO CHAMBER
OF COMMERCE WEATHER FOR THE REGION TODAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN LATE MONDAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW WRAPS AROUND DEPARTING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS INDICATE TAIL END OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT THE SUBTROPICAL
JET JUST TO THE SOUTH MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT EITHER FROM ENTRANCE
REGION LIFT OR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND PROMPT DRYING LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WITH
ONLY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM SUBTROPICAL JET.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIFR OCCURRING ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND SHUD REMAIN AT IFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH 09Z TO
11Z...CIGS SLOWLY RISING BY DAWN. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. A STEADILY CLEARING OF CLOUDS XPCTD BY NOON TODAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE LATER TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 1 AM BUOY 20 REPORTED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 23 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 29 KNOTS...SEAS AT 8.2 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXITING THE REGION NOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. HAVE EVEN EXTENDED THE SCA FOR ALL LWR TX
GULF WATERS THRU 15Z TODAY. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE XPCTD
LATER TODAY WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. A STEADY
DETERIORATION OF MARINE CONDITIONS THEN BEGINS LATE MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 57 77 64 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNSVILLE 79 56 79 61 / 0 0 0 10
HARLINGEN 78 53 80 61 / 0 0 0 10
MCALLEN 80 57 79 63 / 0 0 0 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 80 57 78 64 / 0 0 0 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 60 73 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
64/58
000
FXUS64 KLUB 210554
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOW
LEVELS MAY OCCUR AT KCDS AROUND SUNRISE...WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT
OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER MOST MINIMUMS TONIGHT A CATEGORY AS
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY. DROPPED LOWS A BIT MORE THAN THAT
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY OCCUR AT KCDS
AROUND SUNRISE...WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. STOUT INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE EFFICIENTLY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE ENHANCED COOLING AND PRE-EXISTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY SO LONG
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THAT
REGION.
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE IN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AT PRESENT...
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA. 26
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS CYCLE AS FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AS WE MAY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
STRONGER TROUGH THEN EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. ECMWF STILL
DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS PREFERRED...BUT IN EITHER
CASE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
HIGHS AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE CHILLY
TOO...ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS AREA AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. WARMING TREND EXPECT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 21 65 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 26 66 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 26 66 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 23 68 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 29 67 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 25 68 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 26 69 31 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 35 65 39 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 27 67 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 35 67 42 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KMAF 210553
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST TAF SITES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA
STRENGTHENS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
000
FXUS64 KEWX 210546 AAC
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1146 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS PREVAIL AT KSAT/KSSF...BUT WILL DETERIORATE AROUND 10Z WHEN
LOW-END MVFR CIGS DEVELOP. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST AT
KAUS...WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR BY 16Z. LIFR VSBYS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KDRT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN BECOME ENE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TIMING IS MAINLY TO REFLECT EXPIRATION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
THE INCREASED DRYING TREND AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS ON THE
LAST ROUND OF RAINS IS ACCELERATING THE TEMPERATURE DROPS THIS
EVENING. THUS, WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AND
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS. ALSO, AN
EVENING INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS WAS ADDED FOR THE S/SE COUNTIES
WHERE A NEAR SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE SAT AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
A ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-04Z...WITH
IFR CIGS FORECAST. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KDRT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF REGION BY DAWN. CENTER OF LOW WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EASTERN HALF TIL MIDNIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT..SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN
CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM. MOSTLY SUNNY
TOMORROW WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE HILL
COUNTRY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS MONDAY WITH MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY WITH
A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COOL
RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SWEEPS
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. DISTURBANCES WILL CARVE A
TROUGH INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WEDNESDAY ANCHORING A COOL DRY
RIDGE OVER THE CWA FOR THANKSGIVING. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
WEATHER EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70. A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DRY PATTERN WILL SET UP A WARMING
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 69 47 72 55 / 40 - 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 48 70 41 75 50 / 50 - 0 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 50 70 44 73 52 / 60 - 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 67 47 68 52 / 30 - 0 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 44 74 50 72 53 / - 0 0 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 67 47 70 53 / 40 - 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 46 73 46 70 53 / 20 - 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 69 46 73 54 / 50 - 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 52 67 44 72 54 / 70 10 0 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 71 47 72 56 / 50 - 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 50 71 47 73 55 / 60 - 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18/11
000
FXUS64 KSJT 210546
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
MENTIONED LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES TOWARD MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN CWA...AS HIGH CLOUDS CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR
DEW POINTS. DRIER AIR IN WESTERN SECTION SHOULD INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION FARTHER WEST AT KSJT AND KSOA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE LIGHT. A COUPLE
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OUR PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...DECIDED TO BUMP OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TONIGHT.
ALSO...ADJUSTED WIND AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON TRENDS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. RECENT ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THESE CHANGES.
23/HUBER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT
THE BRADY...KBBD TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED AREAS AT
JUNCTION AND ABILENE. OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY
EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN ACROSS KIMBLE COUNTY. THE PCPN WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWFA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
21
LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACT EXPECTED OTHER THAN ANOTHER
COLD FROPA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY NICE AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MONDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
IF YOU READ MY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...I NOTED THERE WERE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE SOME
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TODAY`S RUNS
HAVE NOW COME AROUND TO THE IDEA OF A DEEPER...SLOWER TROUGH LIKE
THE ECMWF WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. THEY ARE...IN GENERAL...IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST THE NOTION OF DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVE AT THAT SOLUTION IN TWO DIFFERENT WAYS. THE
MODELS DIFFER MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE IDEA OF A COLD FROPA MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS
GOOD.
WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IN THE
REGION AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK OVERALL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE
BAJA AND LOTS OF PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM FROM IT OVER MEXICO.
THERE WAS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO TX YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THIS
MOISTURE INTO TX NOW AND INSTEAD KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH DUE TO
CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE POLAR WESTERLIES OVER OUR REGION. A
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE THEN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 38 67 46 72 49 / 10 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 36 69 44 73 48 / 10 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 37 69 43 73 50 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
000
FXUS64 KHGX 210539
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1139 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ONE FINAL BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE SE
TX TERMINALS TONIGHT. MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WILL
BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER
THAT. SUSPECT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAINING UNTIL 18Z. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE
AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES PAST THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AND TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
WITH A SFC LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE TX COAST IN THE GULF.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 841 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TSTMS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND THIS TREND APPEARS
LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT. EXTREME
SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE LAST
ORGANIZED PRECIP AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID/UPPER LOW IN CEN TX IS
APPROACHING SW AREAS OF SE TX. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAINFALL
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY WITH THIS AREA. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO TAPER FROM S TO N. EXPECT PRECIP TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIGHT BE SOME
SCT SHWRS LEFT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SAT MORN.
STILL CAN NOT FIND A DISTINCT SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
NW GULF...BUT THINK A BROAD SFC LOW IS LIKELY FORMING THIS
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. WINDS ALONG
THE SE TX COAST HAVE RECENTLY BACKED TO THE NE. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
BEACH FRONT AREAS OF BRAZORIA AND GALVESTON ARE AT HIGH TIDE
AND WATER LEVELS ARE AROUND 3.6 FEET. COULD RISE A LITTLE MORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL BE EXTENDING THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AS N/NE WINDS LATER TONIGHT MAY CAUSE A
FURTHER RISE ON THE W/NW FACING PORTIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 66 46 70 52 / 50 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 52 66 46 70 52 / 60 20 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 57 66 54 69 61 / 60 30 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KAMA 210531 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS EVENING AS WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND...MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
JOHNSON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BUT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COME AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AROUND MIDDAY DUE TO
THE DEEPENING LEE TROF. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH TX MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE
LEE TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HELP TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST
AND NORTH...WITH MID 30S EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST. MIN TEMPS MAY BE
REACHED A BIT EARLY THAN CLIMO TONIGHT GIVEN THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING A
LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS IN MANY AREAS.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
HAS RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS MEANS CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNRISE...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS BY
MIDDAY AS THE LEE TROF INTENSIFIES. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 30
KTS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN REMAINS DRY FOR THE SEVEN DAYS...ONLY WITH A COUPLE OF
DRY COLD FRONTS TO SPEAK OF.
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH TOMORROW WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SERVE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE CWA. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN STORE
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR
HIGH TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
SHORT TERM.
12Z GFS/EUROPEAN ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWLY MOVES UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NATION/S MID SECTION. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD STILL KEEP
THE PANHANDLES DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE ACROSS OUR AREA.
A FRONT OR TWO STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE ON
MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TAB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/08
000
FXUS64 KFWD 210446 AAD
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1046 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR AND AREA
ARPTS IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONT THAT HAS RETROGRADED SLOWLY WWD
DURING THE EVE HRS...WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS FURTHER EAST...AND VFR
CIGS WAY OUT WEST IN THE COLDER/DRIER AIR. OLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SLIDING SLOWLY WWD TOWARD DAYBREAK...BEFORE WASHING OUT BY LATE
MORNING SATURDAY AS LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND WINDS BECOME
SELY. WILL HOLD IFR/LIFR MENTION THROUGH 14Z OR SO...THE SLOWLY
BRING CIGS UP TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS WEAK WAA OCCURS...THEN TO
VFR CONDS BY 21Z-00 SAT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED
AND MOVES OFF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE STATE NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS WELL
DEFINED AND IS NOW ON THE MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. ACROSS OUR AREA...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 650MB...AND ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
WILL TRANSLATE EAST...LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
91/DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO KILLEEN
LINE AS OF 21Z...HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO
THE WEST...SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY. THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST SATURDAY
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. AFTERWARD...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL. SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM DAY FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 52 65 48 68 52 / 60 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 51 66 48 69 56 / 60 20 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 51 61 44 65 48 / 60 40 10 5 10
DENTON, TX 51 64 47 67 50 / 60 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 52 64 45 67 50 / 60 30 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 52 66 51 69 53 / 60 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 51 64 47 69 53 / 60 30 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 51 65 47 69 52 / 60 30 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 51 67 48 70 55 / 50 20 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/91
000
FXUS64 KCRP 210444
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST
ACRS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH STG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS. AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW (DEPICTED WELL ON MSAS) MOVES
EAST...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. WL EXTEND SCA OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS 07Z SAT AND
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO 12Z SAT. ISSUED A CFW FOR ENTIRE COAST
UNTIL 12Z SAT OWING TO RECENT TIDE LEVELS/HIGH TIDE. YET...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER HIGH TIDE IN RESPONSE TO NW FLOW AS
WATER WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT AREA TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ON THE DOWNSWING. WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE SURFACE FRONT
IS NEARLY THROUGH THE CRP CWA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN WINDS
TAPER DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS ACROSS THE TERRESTRIAL AREAS AND
SUBSIDING TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION FOR
THE COASTAL BEND UNTIL 6 PM WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE... EXPECTING LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS WITH SOME EMBEDDED ISOLD CONVECTION AS
UPPER TROF AND MIDDLE LEVEL COLD POOL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROSSROADS
REGION AND IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EARLY TO MID EVENING. OVERALL RH WILL
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS
DRIER AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SHALLOW RETURN RECOMMENCING AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN IN CONCERT WITH
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW PATCHY TO PERHAPS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MEX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAW A
RETURN FLOW NWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
INCREASING. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THE INITAL ONE DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY TOWARD THE TX
COAST BY NOON TUESDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE HOWEVER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AT THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH SO ONLY CARRIED LOW
CHANCE OF POPS FOR TUE. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS YET ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY
REINFORCIG THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS AREA. NO
SIGIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BEYOND TUE...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS OVERHEAD. LOWERED TEMPS
ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT DIDN`T STRAY TOO
FAR FROM GFS MOS...EXCEPT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING
AS THE SFC FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO
15 FT TDA OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS WL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE
NOCTURNAL PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 55 72 52 74 58 / 40 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 53 69 47 73 55 / 60 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 55 77 53 77 59 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 54 76 50 75 57 / 40 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 57 70 56 73 59 / 40 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 50 75 49 75 55 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 54 76 50 75 57 / 40 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 58 71 54 74 61 / 40 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
PATRICIO.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KLUB 210429
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1029 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER MOST MINIMUMS TONIGHT A CATEGORY AS
TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY. DROPPED LOWS A BIT MORE THAN THAT
OVER NORTHWEST ZONES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY OCCUR AT KCDS
AROUND SUNRISE...WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. STOUT INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE EFFICIENTLY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE ENHANCED COOLING AND PRE-EXISTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY SO LONG
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THAT
REGION.
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE IN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AT PRESENT...
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA. 26
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS CYCLE AS FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AS WE MAY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
STRONGER TROUGH THEN EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. ECMWF STILL
DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS PREFERRED...BUT IN EITHER
CASE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
HIGHS AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE CHILLY
TOO...ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS AREA AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. WARMING TREND EXPECT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 21 65 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 26 66 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 26 66 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 23 68 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 29 67 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 25 68 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 26 69 31 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 35 65 39 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 27 67 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 35 67 42 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/99
000
FXUS64 KSJT 210327
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
927 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE LIGHT. A COUPLE
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OUR PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT LOW FORECAST.
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...DECIDED TO BUMP OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TONIGHT.
ALSO...ADJUSTED WIND AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON TRENDS OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. RECENT ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS THESE CHANGES.
23/HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION/
AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT
THE BRADY...KBBD TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED AREAS AT
JUNCTION AND ABILENE. OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY
EAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN ACROSS KIMBLE COUNTY. THE PCPN WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWFA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
21
LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACT EXPECTED OTHER THAN ANOTHER
COLD FROPA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY NICE AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MONDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
IF YOU READ MY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...I NOTED THERE WERE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE SOME
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TODAY`S RUNS
HAVE NOW COME AROUND TO THE IDEA OF A DEEPER...SLOWER TROUGH LIKE
THE ECMWF WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. THEY ARE...IN GENERAL...IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST THE NOTION OF DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVE AT THAT SOLUTION IN TWO DIFFERENT WAYS. THE
MODELS DIFFER MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE IDEA OF A COLD FROPA MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS
GOOD.
WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IN THE
REGION AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK OVERALL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE
BAJA AND LOTS OF PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM FROM IT OVER MEXICO.
THERE WAS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO TX YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THIS
MOISTURE INTO TX NOW AND INSTEAD KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH DUE TO
CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE POLAR WESTERLIES OVER OUR REGION. A
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE THEN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 38 67 46 72 49 / 10 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 36 69 44 73 48 / 10 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 37 69 43 73 50 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/HUBER
000
FXUS64 KAMA 210324 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
924 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PULL AWAY FROM THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH TX MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BECOMING
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE
LEE TROF BEGINS TO DEVELOP. IN THE MEANTIME...STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL HELP TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST
AND NORTH...WITH MID 30S EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST. MIN TEMPS MAY BE
REACHED A BIT EARLY THAN CLIMO TONIGHT GIVEN THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING A
LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS IN MANY AREAS.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
HAS RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS MEANS CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNRISE...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS BY
MIDDAY AS THE LEE TROF INTENSIFIES. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 30
KTS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN REMAINS DRY FOR THE SEVEN DAYS...ONLY WITH A COUPLE OF
DRY COLD FRONTS TO SPEAK OF.
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH TOMORROW WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SERVE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE CWA. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN STORE
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR
HIGH TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
SHORT TERM.
12Z GFS/EUROPEAN ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWLY MOVES UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NATION/S MID SECTION. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD STILL KEEP
THE PANHANDLES DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE ACROSS OUR AREA.
A FRONT OR TWO STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE ON
MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TAB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24
000
FXUS64 KMAF 210324 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
924 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
WILL LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TONIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME LIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE IN THE PERMIAN BASIN BY SUNRISE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND COME BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AS LEESIDE TROUGH SETS UP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS WELL E WITH COLD FRONT S THRU THE TRANS
PECOS. NAM12 INDICATES SFC RIDGE ACRS W TX AND WITH DWPNTS LIKELY
IN THE M20S SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLDER MORNING...NEAR FREEZING IN
CNTRL PB. NICE WARM-UP SAT PM THOUGH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD WHILE LEE TROFFING ACRS ERN NM WILL BRINGS SLY WINDS BACK
TO NEAR 15 MPH. 7H WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ACRS GDP MTNS WILL MAKE FOR
GUSTY WINDS IN HIEST ELEVATIONS AND THRU GDP PASS. BY EARLY SUN
NEXT SHRTWV TROF WILL HAVE MOVED JUST E OF ROCKY MTNS AND SFC
LOW/LEE TROF WILL BE IN SW KS/W TX RESPECTIVELY. LEE TROF WILL
MOVE E AND WLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THRU DAY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG WITH EWD POSITION OF 85H THERMAL RIDGE WILL MAKE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS PB. EVEN THOUGH 7H WINDS REMAIN 20-25KTS
THEY VEER MORE TO THE NW SO WINDS IN GDP MTNS NOT AS GUSTY. BY
MONDAY MORNING NEXT NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF WILL BE MOVING E OF
ROCKY MTNS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW ACRS W TX
BY AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THRU PANHANDLE. WITH COLD
FRONT N THRU THE DAY TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SFC-85H
WINDS WILL REMAIN W. FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING AND MSLP
GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR BRIEF BREEZY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 10 MPH THRU SUNRISE TUE AM SO TEMPS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT. COOL TUE PM AS WELL WITH 85H
TEMPS SUPPORTING 55-60 MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR COOLER/DRY RE-ENFORCING CONTINENTAL AIR WITH
ANOTHER FRONT LATE WED OR EARLY THUR AM. NOT MUCH FOR THUR AND A
LITTLE WARMER FRI WITH LATEST GFS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP ACRS
BIG BEND THAN INDICATED IN YESTERDAY/S DATA FOR FRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 30 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 27 72 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 35 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 36 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 30 68 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 28 68 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 20 66 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 28 71 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 28 68 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 29 73 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 210254 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
854 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE STATE NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS WELL
DEFINED AND IS NOW ON THE MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. ACROSS OUR AREA...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 650MB...AND ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
WILL TRANSLATE EAST...LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
91/DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL HOLD CLOSE PERSISTENCE WITH CURRENT TAF FCST ON EVENING/00Z ISSUANCE
WITH ONE CAVEAT. IT APPEARS AFTER DARK THAT WEAK COLD FRONT JUST EAST
OF N TX ARPTS SHOULD BACK WWD WITH WINDS VEERING N/NELY ONCE AGAIN AND
LIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME IFR CIGS BY MIDNIGHT/06Z THROUGH AT
LEAST DAYBREAK/12Z SATURDAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COOL AND SATURATED.
WILL MAINTAIN A MORE PREVAILING IFR FCST AT WACO/KACT WITH MORE PREVALENT
-RA/-DZ...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LOW SLIDES SLOWLY
EWD.
UPR LO TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD E TX/LA BORDER BY 18Z/MIDDAY SATURDAY...
WILL TREND TO A GRADUAL RISE TO MVFR CIGS BY THIS TIME...WITH MVFR CIGS
BY 21Z/MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THOUGH IF GFS PANS OUT...IT COULD JUST
CLEAR OUT ALTOGETHER BY 00Z SUN/SATURDAY EVE. SO NEXT 24 HRS EXPECT
SOME ISSUES WITH ADDITIONAL FUEL REQUIREMENTS AND ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES
AT AREA ARPTS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO KILLEEN
LINE AS OF 21Z...HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO
THE WEST...SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY. THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST SATURDAY
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. AFTERWARD...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL. SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM DAY FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 52 65 48 68 52 / 60 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 51 66 48 69 56 / 60 20 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 51 61 44 65 48 / 60 40 10 5 10
DENTON, TX 51 64 47 67 50 / 60 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 52 64 45 67 50 / 60 30 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 52 66 51 69 53 / 60 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 51 64 47 69 53 / 60 30 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 51 65 47 69 52 / 60 30 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 51 67 48 70 55 / 50 20 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 210241
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
841 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TSTMS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND THIS TREND APPEARS
LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT. EXTREME
SOUTHERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME TSTM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE LAST
ORGANIZED PRECIP AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID/UPPER LOW IN CEN TX IS
APPROACHING SW AREAS OF SE TX. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAINFALL
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY WITH THIS AREA. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE POP FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO TAPER FROM S TO N. EXPECT PRECIP TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MIGHT BE SOME
SCT SHWRS LEFT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SAT MORN.
STILL CAN NOT FIND A DISTINCT SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
NW GULF...BUT THINK A BROAD SFC LOW IS LIKELY FORMING THIS
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE. WINDS ALONG
THE SE TX COAST HAVE RECENTLY BACKED TO THE NE. TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
BEACH FRONT AREAS OF BRAZORIA AND GALVESTON ARE AT HIGH TIDE
AND WATER LEVELS ARE AROUND 3.6 FEET. COULD RISE A LITTLE MORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL BE EXTENDING THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING UNTIL 6 AM AS N/NE WINDS LATER TONIGHT MAY CAUSE A
FURTHER RISE ON THE W/NW FACING PORTIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 66 46 70 52 / 50 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 52 66 46 70 52 / 60 20 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 57 66 54 69 61 / 60 30 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
000
FXUS64 KBRO 210156
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
756 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE BRO CWFA RIGHT NOW...MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO APPROACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THUS...HAVE INDICATED RAINFALL
UNTIL SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR ADVECTING INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM FARTHER NORTH IN THE
LONE STAR STATE...AND HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY MORNING TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.
NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO ARRIVE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATED ZONE FORECAST ISSUED A SHORT TIME AGO.
&&
.MARINE...AT 7 PM BUOY 20 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 16 KNOTS...SEAS AT 11.5 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND PERIOD. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EXITING THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING AND WITH MINIMAL 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA OF 20 KNOTS...AT LEAST
FOR TWO OR MORE HOURS. WILL CANCEL THE SCA ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAGUNA BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORIES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WITH SEAS STILL HIGHLY AGITATED. HAVE EVEN EXTENDED THE SCA UNTIL
12Z SATURDAY FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE ZONES WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND
OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN THE DECREASE. IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS
SATURDAY WITH EXCELLENT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. A STEADY DETERIORATION
OF MARINE CONDITIONS THEN COMMENCES LATER MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT
AND POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIFR OCCURRING ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. VISIBILITIES REMAIN IN THE MOST PART VFR AS WINDS
ARE NOW NORTHWEST AT MODERATE SPEEDS...HOWEVER PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. REGIONAL
AIRPORTS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY REMAIN AT IFR THROUGH 09Z WITH CIGS
SLOWLY RISING THEREAFTER. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
UNLESS WINDS RELAX AND CIGS LOWER WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED THIS TIME.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING NORTHEAST BUT SHOULD EXIT TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY ALLOW FOR A STEADILY CLEARING OF CLOUDS
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 75 60 79 / 30 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 58 77 60 80 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 56 78 58 80 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 54 80 57 81 / 20 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 53 81 54 79 / 20 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 77 61 78 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ170-175.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TOMASELLI-66
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...BOGORAD-59
000
FXUS64 KEWX 210024
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
624 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE TIMING IS MAINLY TO REFLECT EXPIRATION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
THE INCREASED DRYING TREND AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS ON THE
LAST ROUND OF RAINS IS ACCELERATING THE TEMPERATURE DROPS THIS
EVENING. THUS, WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AND
INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE MORNINGS. ALSO, AN
EVENING INCREASE TO LIKELY POPS WAS ADDED FOR THE S/SE COUNTIES
WHERE A NEAR SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ACROSS
THE SAT AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
A ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-04Z...WITH
IFR CIGS FORECAST. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KDRT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF REGION BY DAWN. CENTER OF LOW WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EASTERN HALF TIL MIDNIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT..SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN
CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM. MOSTLY SUNNY
TOMORROW WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE HILL
COUNTRY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS MONDAY WITH MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY WITH
A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COOL
RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SWEEPS
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. DISTURBANCES WILL CARVE A
TROUGH INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WEDNESDAY ANCHORING A COOL DRY
RIDGE OVER THE CWA FOR THANKSGIVING. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
WEATHER EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70. A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DRY PATTERN WILL SET UP A WARMING
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 69 47 72 55 / 40 - 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 48 70 41 75 50 / 50 - 0 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 50 70 44 73 52 / 60 - 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 67 47 68 52 / 30 - 0 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 44 74 50 72 53 / - 0 0 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 47 67 47 70 53 / 40 - 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 46 73 46 70 53 / 20 - 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 49 69 46 73 54 / 50 - 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 52 67 44 72 54 / 70 10 0 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 71 47 72 56 / 50 - 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 50 71 47 73 55 / 60 - 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
18/11
000
FXUS64 KHGX 202348
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OUT IN W TX SO AS IT MOVES EAST
TONIGHT...SE TX SHOULD STILL HAVE ONGOING RAIN MODERATE AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. TAFS WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE
MVFR/IFR LEVELS THROUGH 18Z AND THEN A GRADUAL LIFTING OF
CEILINGS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS SE TX. WINDS SHOULD ALSO TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH TOMORROW BUT REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS AS SFC RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE ARKLATEX. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TONIGHT AND
AMEND TAF FOR ANY HEAVIER PRECIP THAT MAY AFFECT TERMINALS AND
CAUSE LOWER VSBY.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO CNTL TX AND ANTICIPATE THIS
TO EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST OF SE TX SAT MORNING. WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT UNTIL
THE TROF AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HAVEN`T SEEN A WELL DEFINED
SFC LOW DEVELOP AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING ON FOR DAYS AS OF YET
WHICH HAS PROBABLY KEPT QPF TOTALS IN CHECK. ALTHOUGH AREAS SOUTH OF
I-10 HAVE SEEN 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 12-18 HOURS THINK
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE WATCH AREA CAN TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES
WITHOUT ANY MAJOR ISSUES (OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL LOCALIZED PROBLEM
SPOTS). PLAN ON LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 PM. MAY
STILL SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES AT HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL BE OUT IN A WHILE.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SAT.
REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH SFC HIGH PRES FILLING IN FROM
THE NE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES LATE SUN OR
MON AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE PLAINS. NEXT TROF DROPS DOWN INTO THE
PLAINS & MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THRU THE AREA TUE WITH A REINFORCING SURGE LATER IN THE WEEK. AS
OF NOW...THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S & LOWS IN
THE 40S. 47
MARINE...
STRONG EAST WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER SC TX. WHILE THE 1ST
ROUND OF PCPN HAS LEFT THE AREA...ANOTHER BATCH IS MOVING OFF THE
THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST ATTM. SO WILL BE KEEPING THE SCA ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE MARINE ZONES THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES IN THE POST STORM/FRONTAL REGIME (WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS SAT/MOST OF SUN). THE NEXT FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR
A TUES FROPA. 41
AVIATION...
TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PCPN ONE OF THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS
NEXT SET OF TAFS. BUT FROM THE LOOKS OF IT WE SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE AREA OF SH/TSRAS BY THE TIME THE NEXT SET IS DUE SO IT SHOULD
WHEN ALL OF THIS ENDS AS THE PROBLEM. GFS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED SFC WINDS BUT SO FAR IT HAS
NOT BEEN THAT GREAT WITH PCPN FOR THE TAFS. AND SO WILL LIKELY BE
STICKING WITH EXTRAPOLATION/TRENDS AS OUR FRIEND IN THE SHORTTERM.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 51 66 46 70 / 80 60 20 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 52 66 46 70 / 80 60 50 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 57 66 54 69 / 90 60 40 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
000
FXUS64 KBRO 202344
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
544 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS ARE KNOW NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH MVFR CIGS COVERING THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS. IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO ENSHROUD
ALL AREAS THIS EVENING WITH A SLOW RISING OF THE CEILINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT OR MORE LIKELY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY
WITH ISOLATED IFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. DRIER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 259 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009...MARINE...ADDED
SCA FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA MADRE ZONES 132 AND
135 UNTIL 21/03Z. SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD
HELPING INCREASE THE WINDS. THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SHORTLY AFTER 6 PM WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 218 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009...THE
SURFACE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE BRO CWA WITH A
INCREASING W-NW SURFACE FLOW BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SVR
CONV POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CURRENT LAPS CAPE VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG. THE CONV
POTENTIAL ALSO IS BEING LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA SUPRESSING THE AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL HEATING.
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED PRETTY QUICKLY BY THE
PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TX. OVERALL MEAN RH VALUES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
IN MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY A STEADY PROGRESSION OF 500 MB
SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL
CLOSED OFF OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST LATE MON INTO TUES AND THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH THROUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON TUES. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL
ENOUGH TO WARRENT SOME 20 TO 30 % POPS INTO THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. THE BIG QUESTION IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD CONCERNS THE
HANDLING OF THE POPS NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DRIES OUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE VALUES QUICKER VERSUS THE GFS WHICH WANTS TO HOLD ONTO
THE MOISTURE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. MODEL TO
MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE SHORT TERM BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE MET
ARE PRETTY GOOD FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM THIS TREND FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD IS NOT AS GOOD VERSUS THE
SHORT TERM ESPECIALLY CONCERNING TEMP TRENDS AFTER MON WITH THE
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS COMING IN QUITE A BIT COOLER VERSUS YESTERDAY.
DESPITE THE VARIATION IN EXPECTED TEMPS NEXT WEEK THE POPS
GENERATED BY THE MEX GUIDANCE REMAIN PRETTY STEADY AND WILL STICK
CLOSE TO THESE IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD AS THE INSTABILTY
MAY BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT TRW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 75 60 79 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 62 77 60 80 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 60 78 58 80 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 58 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 81 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 77 61 78 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
59/51
000
FXUS64 KCRP 202330 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
530 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT AREA TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ON THE DOWNSWING. WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE SURFACE FRONT
IS NEARLY THROUGH THE CRP CWA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN WINDS
TAPER DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS ACROSS THE TERRESTRIAL AREAS AND
SUBSIDING TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION FOR
THE COASTAL BEND UNTIL 6 PM WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE... EXPECTING LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS WITH SOME EMBEDDED ISOLD CONVECTION AS
UPPER TROF AND MIDDLE LEVEL COLD POOL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROSSROADS
REGION AND IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EARLY TO MID EVENING. OVERALL RH WILL
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS
DRIER AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SHALLOW RETURN RECOMMENCING AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN IN CONCERT WITH
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW PATCHY TO PERHAPS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MEX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAW A
RETURN FLOW NWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
INCREASING. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THE INITAL ONE DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY TOWARD THE TX
COAST BY NOON TUESDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE HOWEVER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AT THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH SO ONLY CARRIED LOW
CHANCE OF POPS FOR TUE. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS YET ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY
REINFORCIG THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS AREA. NO
SIGIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BEYOND TUE...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS OVERHEAD. LOWERED TEMPS
ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT DIDN`T STRAY TOO
FAR FROM GFS MOS...EXCEPT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING
AS THE SFC FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO
15 FT TDA OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS WL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE
NOCTURNAL PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 55 72 52 74 58 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 53 69 47 73 55 / 60 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 55 77 53 77 59 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 54 76 50 75 57 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 57 70 56 73 59 / 40 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 50 75 49 75 55 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 54 76 50 75 57 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 58 71 54 74 61 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
JAR/19...LONG TERM/AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KMAF 202330
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
530 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND COME BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AS LEESIDE TROUGH SETS UP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS WELL E WITH COLD FRONT S THRU THE TRANS
PECOS. NAM12 INDICATES SFC RIDGE ACRS W TX AND WITH DWPNTS LIKELY
IN THE M20S SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLDER MORNING...NEAR FREEZING IN
CNTRL PB. NICE WARM-UP SAT PM THOUGH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD WHILE LEE TROFFING ACRS ERN NM WILL BRINGS SLY WINDS BACK
TO NEAR 15 MPH. 7H WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ACRS GDP MTNS WILL MAKE FOR
GUSTY WINDS IN HIEST ELEVATIONS AND THRU GDP PASS. BY EARLY SUN
NEXT SHRTWV TROF WILL HAVE MOVED JUST E OF ROCKY MTNS AND SFC
LOW/LEE TROF WILL BE IN SW KS/W TX RESPECTIVELY. LEE TROF WILL
MOVE E AND WLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THRU DAY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG WITH EWD POSITION OF 85H THERMAL RIDGE WILL MAKE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS PB. EVEN THOUGH 7H WINDS REMAIN 20-25KTS
THEY VEER MORE TO THE NW SO WINDS IN GDP MTNS NOT AS GUSTY. BY
MONDAY MORNING NEXT NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF WILL BE MOVING E OF
ROCKY MTNS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW ACRS W TX
BY AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THRU PANHANDLE. WITH COLD
FRONT N THRU THE DAY TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SFC-85H
WINDS WILL REMAIN W. FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING AND MSLP
GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR BRIEF BREEZY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 10 MPH THRU SUNRISE TUE AM SO TEMPS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT. COOL TUE PM AS WELL WITH 85H
TEMPS SUPPORTING 55-60 MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR COOLER/DRY RE-ENFORCING CONTINENTAL AIR WITH
ANOTHER FRONT LATE WED OR EARLY THUR AM. NOT MUCH FOR THUR AND A
LITTLE WARMER FRI WITH LATEST GFS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP ACRS
BIG BEND THAN INDICATED IN YESTERDAY/S DATA FOR FRI.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 202329
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
529 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
/SEE BELOW FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION/
&&
.AVIATION...
STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN TO EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT
THE BRADY...KBBD TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED AREAS AT
JUNCTION AND ABILENE. OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY
EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN ACROSS KIMBLE COUNTY. THE PCPN WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWFA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
21
LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACT EXPECTED OTHER THAN ANOTHER
COLD FROPA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY NICE AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MONDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
IF YOU READ MY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...I NOTED THERE WERE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE SOME
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TODAY`S RUNS
HAVE NOW COME AROUND TO THE IDEA OF A DEEPER...SLOWER TROUGH LIKE
THE ECMWF WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. THEY ARE...IN GENERAL...IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST THE NOTION OF DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVE AT THAT SOLUTION IN TWO DIFFERENT WAYS. THE
MODELS DIFFER MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE IDEA OF A COLD FROPA MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS
GOOD.
WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IN THE
REGION AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK OVERALL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE
BAJA AND LOTS OF PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM FROM IT OVER MEXICO.
THERE WAS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO TX YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THIS
MOISTURE INTO TX NOW AND INSTEAD KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH DUE TO
CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE POLAR WESTERLIES OVER OUR REGION. A
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE THEN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 41 67 46 72 49 / 10 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 39 69 44 73 48 / 10 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 40 69 43 73 50 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
000
FXUS64 KLUB 202326
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY OCCUR AT KCDS
AROUND SUNRISE...WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. STOUT INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE EFFICIENTLY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE ENHANCED COOLING AND PRE-EXISTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY SO LONG
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THAT
REGION.
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE IN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AT PRESENT...
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA. 26
LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS CYCLE AS FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AS WE MAY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
STRONGER TROUGH THEN EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. ECMWF STILL
DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS PREFERRED...BUT IN EITHER
CASE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
HIGHS AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE CHILLY
TOO...ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS AREA AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. WARMING TREND EXPECT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 26 65 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 28 66 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 30 66 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 30 68 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 33 67 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 31 68 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 31 69 31 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 37 65 39 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 37 67 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 40 67 42 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KFWD 202325 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
WILL HOLD CLOSE PERSISTENCE WITH CURRENT TAF FCST ON EVENING/00Z ISSUANCE
WITH ONE CAVEAT. IT APPEARS AFTER DARK THAT WEAK COLD FRONT JUST EAST
OF N TX ARPTS SHOULD BACK WWD WITH WINDS VEERING N/NELY ONCE AGAIN AND
LIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME IFR CIGS BY MIDNIGHT/06Z THROUGH AT
LEAST DAYBREAK/12Z SATURDAY...AS BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS COOL AND SATURATED.
WILL MAINTAIN A MORE PREVAILING IFR FCST AT WACO/KACT WITH MORE PREVALENT
-RA/-DZ...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVE/OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LOW SLIDES SLOWLY
EWD.
UPR LO TRACKS SLOWLY TOWARD E TX/LA BORDER BY 18Z/MIDDAY SATURDAY...
WILL TREND TO A GRADUAL RISE TO MVFR CIGS BY THIS TIME...WITH MVFR CIGS
BY 21Z/MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY...THOUGH IF GFS PANS OUT...IT COULD JUST
CLEAR OUT ALTOGETHER BY 00Z SUN/SATURDAY EVE. SO NEXT 24 HRS EXPECT
SOME ISSUES WITH ADDITIONAL FUEL REQUIREMENTS AND ARRIVALS/DEPARTURES
AT AREA ARPTS.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO KILLEEN
LINE AS OF 21Z...HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO
THE WEST...SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY. THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST SATURDAY
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. AFTERWARD...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL. SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM DAY FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 65 48 68 52 / 20 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 52 66 48 69 56 / 30 20 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 49 61 44 65 48 / 40 40 10 5 10
DENTON, TX 49 64 47 67 50 / 20 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 49 64 45 67 50 / 30 30 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 52 66 51 69 53 / 30 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 51 64 47 69 53 / 40 30 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 50 65 47 69 52 / 50 30 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 52 67 48 70 55 / 40 20 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/58
000
FXUS64 KEWX 202322 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
522 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A ROUND OF RAIN WILL AFFECT I-35 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00-04Z...WITH
IFR CIGS FORECAST. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BETWEEN 18-19Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KDRT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF REGION BY DAWN. CENTER OF LOW WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EASTERN HALF TIL MIDNIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT..SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN
CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM. MOSTLY SUNNY
TOMORROW WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE HILL
COUNTRY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS MONDAY WITH MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY WITH
A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COOL
RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SWEEPS
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. DISTURBANCES WILL CARVE A
TROUGH INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WEDNESDAY ANCHORING A COOL DRY
RIDGE OVER THE CWA FOR THANKSGIVING. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
WEATHER EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70. A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DRY PATTERN WILL SET UP A WARMING
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 53 69 47 72 55 / 40 - 0 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 52 70 41 75 50 / 40 - 0 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 52 70 44 73 52 / 40 - 0 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 48 67 47 68 52 / 30 - 0 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 45 74 50 72 53 / 10 0 0 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 52 67 47 70 53 / 40 - 0 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 51 73 46 70 53 / 20 - 0 - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 69 46 73 54 / 40 - 0 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 54 67 44 72 54 / 40 10 0 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 71 47 72 56 / 40 - 0 - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 54 71 47 73 55 / 40 - 0 - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA...LEE.
&&
$$
18/11/JB
000
FXUS64 KAMA 202320 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
520 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
HAS RESULTED IN SUBSIDENCE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THIS MEANS CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNRISE...INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS BY
MIDDAY AS THE LEE TROF INTENSIFIES. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY EXCEED 30
KTS. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
JOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN REMAINS DRY FOR THE SEVEN DAYS...ONLY WITH A COUPLE OF
DRY COLD FRONTS TO SPEAK OF.
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH TOMORROW WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SERVE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE CWA. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN STORE
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR
HIGH TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
SHORT TERM.
12Z GFS/EUROPEAN ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWLY MOVES UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NATION/S MID SECTION. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD STILL KEEP
THE PANHANDLES DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE ACROSS OUR AREA.
A FRONT OR TWO STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE ON
MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TAB
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
24/09
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202207
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
307 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BORDERLAND AREA
LATE SATURDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE... DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...AND NEITHER OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
AFFECTING THE WEST COAST TODAY...AND WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS TO OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING REALLY
TO WRITE HOME ABOUT.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NOT QUITE AS DEEP WITH THIS FEATURE COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM-GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS SHOWN A
SLIGHT TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NON-GFS SOLUTION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...THIS JUST MEANS SLIGHTLY BREEZIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AT LEAST COMPARED TO SATURDAY...
BUT STILL NOT A BIG EVENT. ALSO...A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE COOLER AIR
HANGING BACK A LITTLE LONGER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CUTS OFF OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
A WEAK PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO
BREAK OFF INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN MEXICO...BUT IT
APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE
NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
SO OVERALL...DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL... THEN DROPPING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH THE LOWLANDS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 TUE/WED.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP A BIT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
CONTINUED DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER TWENTIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR A
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN BAJA THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 39 69 41 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 35 65 36 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 37 71 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 68 37 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 51 30 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 69 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 62 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 32 70 32 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 30 69 31 69 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25-HARDIMAN / 21-PARK
000
FXUS64 KFWD 202151
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MAIN
AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO KILLEEN
LINE AS OF 21Z...HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO
THE WEST...SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL
RETURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY. THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST SATURDAY
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. AFTERWARD...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
THANKSGIVING DAY WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL. SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARM DAY FOR NEXT SATURDAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 51 65 48 68 52 / 20 20 5 5 5
WACO, TX 52 66 48 69 56 / 30 20 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 49 61 44 65 48 / 40 40 10 5 10
DENTON, TX 49 64 47 67 50 / 20 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 49 64 45 67 50 / 30 30 10 5 5
DALLAS, TX 52 66 51 69 53 / 30 20 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 51 64 47 69 53 / 40 30 10 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 50 65 47 69 52 / 50 30 10 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 52 67 48 70 55 / 40 20 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/58
000
FXUS64 KCRP 202150
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE SURFACE FRONT
IS NEARLY THROUGH THE CRP CWA THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
MIGRATE THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN WINDS
TAPER DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS ACROSS THE TERRESTRIAL AREAS AND
SUBSIDING TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION FOR
THE COASTAL BEND UNTIL 6 PM WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE... EXPECTING LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MID EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS WITH SOME EMBEDDED ISOLD CONVECTION AS
UPPER TROF AND MIDDLE LEVEL COLD POOL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION...WITH SOME MODERATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE CROSSROADS
REGION AND IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EARLY TO MID EVENING. OVERALL RH WILL
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS
DRIER AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SHALLOW RETURN RECOMMENCING AHEAD OF A
WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN IN CONCERT WITH
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW PATCHY TO PERHAPS DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MEX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DRAW A
RETURN FLOW NWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
INCREASING. ANOTHER DEEPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BEHIND THE INITAL ONE DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY TOWARD THE TX
COAST BY NOON TUESDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE HOWEVER
DYNAMICS ARE WEAK AT THE TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH SO ONLY CARRIED LOW
CHANCE OF POPS FOR TUE. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS YET ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY
REINFORCIG THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS AREA. NO
SIGIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED BEYOND TUE...HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS OVERHEAD. LOWERED TEMPS
ACROSS THE BOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT DIDN`T STRAY TOO
FAR FROM GFS MOS...EXCEPT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING
AS THE SFC FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO
15 FT TDA OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS WL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE
NOCTURNAL PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 55 72 52 74 58 / 30 10 10 10 10
VICTORIA 53 69 47 73 55 / 60 10 10 10 10
LAREDO 55 77 53 77 59 / 20 10 10 10 10
ALICE 54 76 50 75 57 / 20 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 57 70 56 73 59 / 40 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 50 75 49 75 55 / 30 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 54 76 50 75 57 / 20 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 58 71 54 74 61 / 30 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SC/70...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KAMA 202122
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
322 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN REMAINS DRY FOR THE SEVEN DAYS...ONLY WITH A COUPLE OF
DRY COLD FRONTS TO SPEAK OF.
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH TOMORROW WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS SERVE TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE CWA. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN STORE
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR
HIGH TEMPS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST SO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
SHORT TERM.
12Z GFS/EUROPEAN ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN IS FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWLY MOVES UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NATION/S MID SECTION. REGARDLESS...BOTH SCENARIOS WOULD STILL KEEP
THE PANHANDLES DRY AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCARCE ACROSS OUR AREA.
A FRONT OR TWO STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE ON
MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH 50S ACROSS THE AREA. DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
TAB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 32 65 33 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 32 62 34 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 28 62 29 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 35 65 36 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 31 65 31 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 31 65 32 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 34 66 36 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 28 62 29 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 31 62 33 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 30 65 31 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 31 62 35 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 34 64 35 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 35 65 37 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 35 65 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/10
000
FXUS64 KSJT 202120
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
320 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN ACROSS KIMBLE COUNTY. THE PCPN WILL BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY...SO GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWFA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
21
.LONG TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACT EXPECTED OTHER THAN ANOTHER
COLD FROPA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY NICE AND MILD AHEAD OF THE MONDAY
NIGHT COLD FRONT.
IF YOU READ MY DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...I NOTED THERE WERE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN HOW THEY HANDLE SOME
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TODAY`S RUNS
HAVE NOW COME AROUND TO THE IDEA OF A DEEPER...SLOWER TROUGH LIKE
THE ECMWF WAS SUGGESTING YESTERDAY. THEY ARE...IN GENERAL...IN
BETTER AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST THE NOTION OF DEVELOPING TROUGHINESS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVE AT THAT SOLUTION IN TWO DIFFERENT WAYS. THE
MODELS DIFFER MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES
WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES...THE IDEA OF A COLD FROPA MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS
GOOD.
WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IN THE
REGION AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK OVERALL.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE
BAJA AND LOTS OF PRECIPITATION DOWNSTREAM FROM IT OVER MEXICO.
THERE WAS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO TX YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THIS
MOISTURE INTO TX NOW AND INSTEAD KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH DUE TO
CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE POLAR WESTERLIES OVER OUR REGION. A
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE THEN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 41 67 46 72 49 / 10 0 0 10 10
SAN ANGELO 39 69 44 73 48 / 10 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 40 69 43 73 50 / 10 0 0 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 202112
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO CNTL TX AND ANTICIPATE THIS
TO EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST OF SE TX SAT MORNING. WILL SEE PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL PUSH THRU OVERNIGHT UNTIL
THE TROF AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HAVEN`T SEEN A WELL DEFINED
SFC LOW DEVELOP AS MODELS HAVE BEEN PINGING ON FOR DAYS AS OF YET
WHICH HAS PROBABLY KEPT QPF TOTALS IN CHECK. ALTHOUGH AREAS SOUTH OF
I-10 HAVE SEEN 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 12-18 HOURS THINK
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE WATCH AREA CAN TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES
WITHOUT ANY MAJOR ISSUES (OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL LOCALIZED PROBLEM
SPOTS). PLAN ON LETTING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 PM. MAY
STILL SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES AT HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING. UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL BE OUT IN A WHILE.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SAT.
REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS NICE WITH SFC HIGH PRES FILLING IN FROM
THE NE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES LATE SUN OR
MON AS PRESSURES FALL IN THE PLAINS. NEXT TROF DROPS DOWN INTO THE
PLAINS & MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THRU THE AREA TUE WITH A REINFORCING SURGE LATER IN THE WEEK. AS
OF NOW...THANKSGIVING LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S & LOWS IN
THE 40S. 47
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG EAST WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER SC TX. WHILE THE 1ST
ROUND OF PCPN HAS LEFT THE AREA...ANOTHER BATCH IS MOVING OFF THE
THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST ATTM. SO WILL BE KEEPING THE SCA ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE MARINE ZONES THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES IN THE POST STORM/FRONTAL REGIME (WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS SAT/MOST OF SUN). THE NEXT FRONT STILL PROGGED FOR
A TUES FROPA. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF PCPN ONE OF THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS
NEXT SET OF TAFS. BUT FROM THE LOOKS OF IT WE SHOULD BE WELL INTO
THE AREA OF SH/TSRAS BY THE TIME THE NEXT SET IS DUE SO IT SHOULD
WHEN ALL OF THIS ENDS AS THE PROBLEM. GFS THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED SFC WINDS BUT SO FAR IT HAS
NOT BEEN THAT GREAT WITH PCPN FOR THE TAFS. AND SO WILL LIKELY BE
STICKING WITH EXTRAPOLATION/TRENDS AS OUR FRIEND IN THE SHORTTERM.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 66 46 70 52 / 60 20 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 52 66 46 70 52 / 60 50 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 57 66 54 69 61 / 60 40 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
WHARTON.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR CHAMBERS...
GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 202110
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. STOUT INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DECOUPLE EFFICIENTLY THIS EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE ENHANCED COOLING AND PRE-EXISTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND THE GRIDS REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY SO LONG
AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO DECREASE ACROSS THAT
REGION.
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DUE IN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AT PRESENT...
EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA. 26
&&
.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD THIS CYCLE AS FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES AS WE MAY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
STRONGER TROUGH THEN EMERGES OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY. ECMWF STILL
DEEPER/FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS PREFERRED...BUT IN EITHER
CASE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES.
HOWEVER...THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH A STRONGER FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL
AIR WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR
HIGHS AND WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...NIGHTTIME LOWS SHOULD BE CHILLY
TOO...ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS AREA AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT. WARMING TREND EXPECT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 26 65 30 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 28 66 33 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 30 66 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 30 68 32 66 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 33 67 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 31 68 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 31 69 31 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 37 65 39 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 37 67 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 40 67 42 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/33
000
FXUS64 KEWX 202103
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
303 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF REGION BY DAWN. CENTER OF LOW WILL
MIGRATE ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EASTERN HALF TIL MIDNIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT..SHOWERS EXITING EASTERN
CWA. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM. MOSTLY SUNNY
TOMORROW WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE HILL
COUNTRY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH ONLY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS MONDAY WITH MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY WITH
A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A COOL
RIDGE WILL BUILD DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SWEEPS
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. DISTURBANCES WILL CARVE A
TROUGH INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA WEDNESDAY ANCHORING A COOL DRY
RIDGE OVER THE CWA FOR THANKSGIVING. MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
WEATHER EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70. A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW DRY PATTERN WILL SET UP A WARMING
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 53 69 47 72 / 100 40 - 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 52 70 41 75 / 100 40 - 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 52 70 44 73 / 100 40 - 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 48 67 47 68 / 70 30 - 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 45 74 50 72 / 40 10 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 52 67 47 70 / 100 40 - 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 51 73 46 70 / 80 20 - 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 52 69 46 73 / 100 40 - 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 54 67 44 72 / 100 40 10 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 54 71 47 72 / 100 40 - 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 54 71 47 73 / 100 40 - 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA...LEE.
&&
$$
02/08
000
FXUS64 KBRO 202059
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
259 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...MARINE...ADDED SCA FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAGUNA
MADRE ZONES 132 AND 135 UNTIL 21/03Z. SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING
EAST OF PORT MANSFIELD HELPING INCREASE THE WINDS. THEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER 6 PM WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 218 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009...THE
SURFACE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE BRO CWA WITH A
INCREASING W-NW SURFACE FLOW BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SVR
CONV POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
CURRENT LAPS CAPE VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG. THE CONV
POTENTIAL ALSO IS BEING LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENT CLD COVER IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA SUPRESSING THE AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL HEATING.
THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED PRETTY QUICKLY BY THE
PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TX. OVERALL MEAN RH VALUES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PUSHES
IN MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY A STEADY PROGRESSION OF 500 MB
SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL
CLOSED OFF OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST LATE MON INTO TUES AND THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH THROUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON TUES. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL
ENOUGH TO WARRENT SOME 20 TO 30 % POPS INTO THE LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. THE BIG QUESTION IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD CONCERNS THE
HANDLING OF THE POPS NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DRIES OUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE VALUES QUICKER VERSUS THE GFS WHICH WANTS TO HOLD ONTO
THE MOISTURE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. MODEL TO
MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE SHORT TERM BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE MET
ARE PRETTY GOOD FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM THIS TREND FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD IS NOT AS GOOD VERSUS THE
SHORT TERM ESPECIALLY CONCERNING TEMP TRENDS AFTER MON WITH THE
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS COMING IN QUITE A BIT COOLER VERSUS YESTERDAY.
DESPITE THE VARIATION IN EXPECTED TEMPS NEXT WEEK THE POPS
GENERATED BY THE MEX GUIDANCE REMAIN PRETTY STEADY AND WILL STICK
CLOSE TO THESE IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD AS THE INSTABILTY
MAY BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT TRW.
AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MARINE...AT NOON BUOY 20 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS AT 29 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 36 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 13 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND
PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS INCREASED THE WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF
MEXICO COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SEAS. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY EARLY SATURDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 75 60 79 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 62 77 60 80 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 60 78 58 80 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 58 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 81 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 77 61 78 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ132-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
59
000
FXUS64 KBRO 202018
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
218 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE BRO
CWA WITH A INCREASING W-NW SURFACE FLOW BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE SVR CONV POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT LAPS CAPE VALUES REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG.
THE CONV POTENTIAL ALSO IS BEING LIMITED BY THE PERSISTENT CLD
COVER IN PLACE OVER THE AREA SUPRESSING THE AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
HEATING. THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED PRETTY
QUICKLY BY THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX. OVERALL MEAN RH VALUES WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS THE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT PUSHES IN MORE DRIER AND STABLE AIR INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY A STEADY PROGRESSION OF
500 MB SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES INTO NEXT WEEK. ONE OF THESE TROUGHS
WILL CLOSED OFF OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST LATE MON INTO TUES AND
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH THROUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON TUES. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRENT SOME 20 TO 30 % POPS INTO THE LONGER
RANGE PERIOD. THE BIG QUESTION IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD CONCERNS
THE HANDLING OF THE POPS NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DRIES OUT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE VALUES QUICKER VERSUS THE GFS WHICH WANTS TO HOLD ONTO
THE MOISTURE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. MODEL TO
MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE SHORT TERM BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE MET
ARE PRETTY GOOD FOR BOTH TEMPS AND POPS. SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO
MUCH FROM THIS TREND FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE LONGER TERM PERIOD IS NOT AS GOOD VERSUS THE
SHORT TERM ESPECIALLY CONCERNING TEMP TRENDS AFTER MON WITH THE
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS COMING IN QUITE A BIT COOLER VERSUS YESTERDAY.
DESPITE THE VARIATION IN EXPECTED TEMPS NEXT WEEK THE POPS
GENERATED BY THE MEX GUIDANCE REMAIN PRETTY STEADY AND WILL STICK
CLOSE TO THESE IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD AS THE INSTABILTY
MAY BE TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT TRW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MODERATE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AT NOON BUOY 20 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS AT 29 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 36 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 13 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND
PERIOD. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS INCREASED THE WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF
MEXICO COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND SEAS. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY EARLY SATURDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 75 60 79 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 62 77 60 80 / 20 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 60 78 58 80 / 20 0 0 0
MCALLEN 58 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 59 81 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 77 61 78 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3
AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
THE GRAPHICAST PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE/GRAPHICAST.HTM
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...63
MESO/GRAPHICAST...MARTINEZ
000
FXUS64 KMAF 202005
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
205 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS IS WELL E WITH COLD FRONT S THRU THE TRANS
PECOS. NAM12 INDICATES SFC RIDGE ACRS W TX AND WITH DWPNTS LIKELY
IN THE M20S SHOULD MAKE FOR A COLDER MORNING...NEAR FREEZING IN
CNTRL PB. NICE WARM-UP SAT PM THOUGH AS MID LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD WHILE LEE TROFFING ACRS ERN NM WILL BRINGS SLY WINDS BACK
TO NEAR 15 MPH. 7H WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ACRS GDP MTNS WILL MAKE FOR
GUSTY WINDS IN HIEST ELEVATIONS AND THRU GDP PASS. BY EARLY SUN
NEXT SHRTWV TROF WILL HAVE MOVED JUST E OF ROCKY MTNS AND SFC
LOW/LEE TROF WILL BE IN SW KS/W TX RESPECTIVELY. LEE TROF WILL
MOVE E AND WLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THRU DAY. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ALONG WITH EWD POSITION OF 85H THERMAL RIDGE WILL MAKE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACRS PB. EVEN THOUGH 7H WINDS REMAIN 20-25KTS
THEY VEER MORE TO THE NW SO WINDS IN GDP MTNS NOT AS GUSTY. BY
MONDAY MORNING NEXT NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF WILL BE MOVING E OF
ROCKY MTNS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW ACRS W TX
BY AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THRU PANHANDLE. WITH COLD
FRONT N THRU THE DAY TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS SFC-85H
WINDS WILL REMAIN W. FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING AND MSLP
GRADIENT LOOKS GOOD FOR BRIEF BREEZY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 10 MPH THRU SUNRISE TUE AM SO TEMPS
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BOTTOM OUT. COOL TUE PM AS WELL WITH 85H
TEMPS SUPPORTING 55-60 MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR COOLER/DRY RE-ENFORCING CONTINENTAL AIR WITH
ANOTHER FRONT LATE WED OR EARLY THUR AM. NOT MUCH FOR THUR AND A
LITTLE WARMER FRI WITH LATEST GFS LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP ACRS
BIG BEND THAN INDICATED IN YESTERDAY/S DATA FOR FRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 37 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 31 72 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 40 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 40 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 34 68 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 32 68 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 25 66 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 32 71 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 35 68 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 33 73 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 201948 AAE
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
148 PM
LATEST MODEL RUNS STALL THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND THEN
SLOWLY PUSH IT BACK WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THE CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN AND HAVE NOT RISEN ABOVE 2000FT EAST OF WISE COUNTY SO FEEL
THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW 2000FT THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS
ISSUED. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
1057 AM
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...
THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO HAMILTON LINE
AS OF 16Z...WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
I-35... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHERMAN...FORT
WORTH...BRADY LINE. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
AFTERNOON/S POPS/QPF... OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. 58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 AM CST
THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
BRECKENRIDGE TO SW OF ABILENE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT /CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH/ AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS LINE HAS SINCE EXPANDED AND HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP HAS FORMED IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR PARIS IN A REGION OF BROAD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION OVER
NORTH TEXAS TO MOVE SE. THIS SCENARIO EQUALS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR TODAY.
WE HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM DFW SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB IN THE 7 C/KM RANGE. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW...AND WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...FLOOD ADVISORIES AND PERHAPS
ONE TO TWO FLASH FLOOD WARNING CAN BE EXPECTED.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE AND WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE 20/30 POPS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
KEEP THANKSGIVING SEASONABLE. 85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 61 49 62 46 67 / 80 50 10 0 5
WACO, TX 63 49 64 47 70 / 100 50 10 0 5
PARIS, TX 59 48 58 43 63 / 100 60 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 59 46 63 43 69 / 70 50 10 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 47 62 42 67 / 90 50 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 62 50 64 48 67 / 90 60 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 64 49 62 45 68 / 100 60 20 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 62 49 62 45 69 / 100 60 20 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 64 49 67 46 72 / 100 50 10 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 201759
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1159 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS/LOW LOCATED NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...JUST
SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND. RADAR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING SHWRS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN HEARTLAND. HAVE KEPT CHC
POPS GOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOING A
WITH A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
21
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHWRS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AND
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
1/3 OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ONLY WENT WITH MVFR CIGS AT KBBD AFTER 08Z SATURDAY.
21
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BRADY TO SONORA...AND IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ALONG AND EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA. NAM AND GFS BOTH SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TRICKY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY IN THE 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. CLEARING
SHOULD BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. BOTH
GFS AND NAM WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW
TONIGHT. WE ARE GOING WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WITH UPPER 30S IN THE WEST. 09
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AS NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE
CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DEEPENS THE SYSTEM INTO
THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS IT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE PLACEMENT...BOTH MODELS PUSH THE ASSOCIATED DRY COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING/EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S ON MONDAY...A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO WEST
CENTRAL TX BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
DIG INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THAT SYSTEM FARTHER TO
THE EAST HOWEVER...ONLY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS INDICATED FOR
OUR AREA WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. 19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 60 40 65 43 72 / 10 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 63 39 69 42 73 / 10 10 0 0 0
JUNCTION 63 40 69 40 74 / 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 201748 CCA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR. ONLY CONCERN IS GUSTY NRLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 26
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN LITTLE FANFARE LOCALLY AS THE DEEPEST
ASCENT AND MOISTURE REMAIN COLLOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
ATTENDANT UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING NORTH TO THE ERN DAKOTAS IS
ON SCHEDULE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING THE
FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. A SURFACE PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL IN TURN INCH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY RESULTING IN RATHER
UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS AND LIGHTER NLY WINDS THAN THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
COOLER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT THAN WERE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AS LIGHTER
WINDS/LESS MIXING ACCOMPANY THE LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE.
LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING BIG
BEND SYSTEM AND ANOTHER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WEAK LEE SFC TROF FOR LATE SATURDAY AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. ZONAL FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC TROF BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT GET TOO HIGH AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER...THE NEXT TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THERE
ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPENS THE TROF A
BIT MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE TROF QUITE A BIT
MORE AND IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD ALLOW A STRONGER SFC LOW TO SET UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM...WHICH IN TURN WOULD PUT THE FCST
AREA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN. THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT H500 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH POSES SOME
ISSUES FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST.
THE ONLY THING THAT BOTH MODELS AGREE ON IS THE SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BUT THE ECMWF IS NOW QUITE
STRONG WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SPEED THE PUSH OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A MORE GRADUAL
TRANSITION. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FCST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW...FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 28 65 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 59 29 67 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 60 29 68 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 61 28 69 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 30 68 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 30 68 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 32 69 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 61 36 67 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 62 32 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 62 38 69 42 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
000
FXUS64 KCRP 201732
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1132 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...REFERENCE AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS WHERE AIRPORT TERMINALS RECEIVE
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. CONDITIONS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 23-02Z
THIS EARLY EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
TX AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WL BE THE NORTHEAST
COASTAL BEND (VCT AREA) WHERE MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MID AND LATE EVENING
HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO
COOLING AIRMASS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WHERE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS UNTIL A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFT 15Z SATURDAY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND A LIGHT NORTH WIND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION WILL BE ON RECEIVING OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 37 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 16 WILL HAVE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE SHOWERS FROM 16 TO 18Z. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS THAT CAME IN EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE LINGERING NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AS WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND AS COASTAL TROF AMELIORATED. GOOD
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY WITH UPSTREAM FRONT
SOUTH OF UVALDE AND AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RGV SFC LOW. WITH
EXCELLENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SWINGING IN EASTWARD FROM THE BRUSH COUNTY TO THE COAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL APPROACHES
THE REGION AND AS THE LLJ INCREASES TO 30 KNOTS. THE COASTAL
PLAINS...THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH ANTECEDENT WET SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...AND VICTORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 6
PM. WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FCST TO KEEP WITH THE CURRENT WIND AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
$$
MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL TROF IN CONCERT
WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ WL KEEP STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE THIS LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS NEWD AND USHERS IN COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO 8 TO 10 FT THIS MORNING AND WL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN TNT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS...
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY 20Z THIS AFTN AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO
SOUTH TX. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WL BE THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND (VCT
AREA) WHERE MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS WL REDEVELOP TNT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
BECOMES SATURATED DUE TO COOLER NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A STRONG S/WV MOVING THROUGH WEST
TX AND NRN MEXICO WL CONTINUE MOVING EWD TDA. MEANWHILE...A
SUBTROPICAL JET WL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
S/WV...ANOTHER JET STREAK WL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX RGN. A JET
COUPLET WITH VERY STRONG UPR LVL DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TDA ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A WARM FRONT
WHICH CURRENTLY LIES BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND BUOY 42020. STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE RESULT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
1.8-2.0 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WL BE THE RESULT. THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND LOOKS VERY GOOD AND WL BE
CONTINUED. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH THE WATERS
TDA...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL ACCELERATE SEWD AND AID IN THE
BOUNDARY LYR FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
RAIN WL TRACK NEWD WITH THE SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...WL LOWER POPS
FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
AIR BEGINS TO AFFECT SOUTH TX FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ASSCTD WITH THE APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT WL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE WL REALLY TAKE HOLD FROM THE LATE EVENING
ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TNT AS DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW
TAKES HOLD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH 18Z...CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NERN AREAS/WATERS FROM
18-00Z WITH CHC/LKLY ELSEWHERE.
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND LARGE SEAS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT
TIDAL LVLS. TIDES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 FOOT ABV
NORMAL. WITH HIGH TIDES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THE WINDS WL HAVE ALREADY BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME. THUS...THE IMPACT WL NOT BE AS MUCH AS IT
COULD HAVE BEEN. THE NRN WATERS WL APPROACH 2 FT MSL BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT. SO NO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WL KEEP A TIGHT
GRADIENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WL
GRADUALLY BECOME OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NEWD
AND USHERS IN A FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SEAS WL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT TDA AND WL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN TNT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PD.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE POTENT SHORT WAVE
WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLDG INTO
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS S TX. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES BY SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPS AND MOISTURE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING THE MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DVLPG ACROSS S TX AND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHC
OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST BY 12Z TUE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
BAGGY TROF TO THE SW OF OF TX WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP AND WITH THE
MAIN ENERGY FAR N...DO NOT WANT TO GO MORE THAN LOW CHC FOR TUE
WITH THE FRONT. MAIN FORCING LOOKS LIKE WILL BE WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BDRY. MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
BY MID WEEK AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAIN ACROSS S TX BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN CWA INTO WED WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST
TO THE S. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SRN CWA FOR
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORING THEN DRYING TAKES PLACE THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON INTO THU ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 55 72 52 76 / 100 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 72 53 69 47 74 / 100 40 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 55 77 53 79 / 80 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 54 76 50 79 / 90 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 73 57 70 56 74 / 100 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 50 75 49 78 / 80 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 54 76 50 77 / 100 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 58 71 54 75 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SC/70...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KFWD 201729 AAD
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1128 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
1128 AM
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN UP TO MVFR...AND THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN I EXPECT HIGH MVFR/OCNL VFR. ALTHOUGH MOS
PRODUCTS SHOW VFR CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND I EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO
MVFR AFTER SUNSET AND LIKELY REMAIN MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL BUMPS UP
AND DOWN...THROUGH TOMORROW MIDDAY AT LEAST. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING TOMORROW WITH NAM KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND GFS DRYING LOW LEVELS OUT MORE TO CREATE VFR CEILINGS.
WILL STICK WITH HIGH MVFR TOMORROW FOR NOW AND WE CAN RE-ASSESS
LATER. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
1057 AM
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...
THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO HAMILTON LINE
AS OF 16Z...WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
I-35... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHERMAN...FORT
WORTH...BRADY LINE. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
AFTERNOON/S POPS/QPF... OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE. 58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
250 AM CST
THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
BRECKENRIDGE TO SW OF ABILENE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT /CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH/ AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS LINE HAS SINCE EXPANDED AND HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP HAS FORMED IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR PARIS IN A REGION OF BROAD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION OVER
NORTH TEXAS TO MOVE SE. THIS SCENARIO EQUALS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR TODAY.
WE HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM DFW SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB IN THE 7 C/KM RANGE. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW...AND WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...FLOOD ADVISORIES AND PERHAPS
ONE TO TWO FLASH FLOOD WARNING CAN BE EXPECTED.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE AND WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE 20/30 POPS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
KEEP THANKSGIVING SEASONABLE. 85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 61 49 62 46 67 / 80 50 10 0 5
WACO, TX 63 49 64 47 70 / 100 50 10 0 5
PARIS, TX 59 48 58 43 63 / 100 60 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 59 46 63 43 69 / 70 50 10 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 47 62 42 67 / 90 50 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 62 50 64 48 67 / 90 60 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 64 49 62 45 68 / 100 60 20 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 62 49 62 45 69 / 100 60 20 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 64 49 67 46 72 / 100 50 10 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 201727
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR. ONLY CONCERN IS GUSTY NRLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 26
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
NO THREAT TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN LITTLE FANFARE LOCALLY AS THE DEEPEST
ASCENT AND MOISTURE REMAIN COLLOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
ATTENDANT UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING NORTH TO THE ERN DAKOTAS IS
ON SCHEDULE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING THE
FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. A SURFACE PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL IN TURN INCH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY RESULTING IN RATHER
UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS AND LIGHTER NLY WINDS THAN THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
COOLER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT THAN WERE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AS LIGHTER
WINDS/LESS MIXING ACCOMPANY THE LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE.
LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING BIG
BEND SYSTEM AND ANOTHER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WEAK LEE SFC TROF FOR LATE SATURDAY AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. ZONAL FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC TROF BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT GET TOO HIGH AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER...THE NEXT TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THERE
ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPENS THE TROF A
BIT MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE TROF QUITE A BIT
MORE AND IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD ALLOW A STRONGER SFC LOW TO SET UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM...WHICH IN TURN WOULD PUT THE FCST
AREA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN. THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT H500 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH POSES SOME
ISSUES FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST.
THE ONLY THING THAT BOTH MODELS AGREE ON IS THE SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BUT THE ECMWF IS NOW QUITE
STRONG WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SPEED THE PUSH OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A MORE GRADUAL
TRANSITION. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FCST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW...FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 28 65 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 59 29 67 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 60 29 68 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 61 28 69 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 30 68 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 30 68 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 32 69 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 61 36 67 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 62 32 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 62 38 69 42 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/26
000
FXUS64 KMAF 201720
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1120 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TEMPO MVFR CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST
OF ALL TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BIG BEND THIS
MORNING IS PUSHING THE CONVECTION EAST OF OUR CWA. THE FRONT HAS
PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH BRINGING COLDER TEMPS TODAY EVEN WITH
SKIES CLEARING UP. AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS
MAKING GOOD PROGRESS EAST WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A QUICK RETURN OF
WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH
THE GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST OF ALL SOLUTIONS. PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT WITH THE FRONT
DUE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE BIG BEND AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH THIS LAST FRONT.
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED COOLER
AIR INTO WEST TEXAS KEEPING TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THANKSGIVING WITH SOME WARMING POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEWX 201704
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1104 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL CHANCES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON TRENDS FROM 6AM TODAY THRU 10 AM...
AND INPUT FROM 12Z FORECAST SOLUTIONS. REST OF FORECAST
TRENDS ARE ON TRACK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL WITH
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MOVING NE AT 25 KNOTS. EXPECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN THE COLD FRONT IN
THE TX HILL COUNTRY WILL PUSH SWD THRU THE AREA AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR MOST AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
21-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SHIFT TO
NLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK SFC LOW IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OFF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST PROVIDING AN AMPLE INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND RESULT IN
A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TEXAS COAST TOWARDS LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE TOTALS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. HAVE LEFT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION ALONE.
WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STREET FLOODING
ACROSS URBAN AND METRO AREAS AS RAINFALL TOTALS AS LOW AS ONE INCH
CAN CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUTED TODAY
AND GENERALLY PEAK IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CONTINUE
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A SLIGHT MOISTENING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MUCH LOWER AS THE BULK OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUES.
MODELS ARE DIVERGENT AS FAR AS HOW LONG THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE FAVORED
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 64 53 65 46 71 / 100 40 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 51 66 39 70 / 100 40 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 50 70 43 73 / 100 30 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 63 49 64 44 69 / 70 40 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 66 46 72 50 74 / 40 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 63 51 66 45 71 / 100 50 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 45 72 43 75 / 80 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 49 68 43 72 / 100 30 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 52 64 44 71 / 100 60 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 66 50 70 46 74 / 100 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 66 51 71 48 75 / 100 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA...LEE.
&&
$$
08
000
FXUS64 KFWD 201657 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...
THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS NEAR A GAINESVILLE TO HAMILTON LINE
AS OF 16Z...WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
I-35... THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF A SHERMAN...FORT
WORTH...BRADY LINE. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
AFTERNOON/S POPS/QPF... OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
905 AM
06Z GFS/NAM AND 12Z RUC SHOW THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT CEILINGS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO METROPLEX
TAF SITES UNTIL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER NOON. UNTIL THEN CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/OCNL LIFR AND VFR. HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE LIFTING TREND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
BRECKENRIDGE TO SW OF ABILENE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT /CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH/ AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS LINE HAS SINCE EXPANDED AND HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP HAS FORMED IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR PARIS IN A REGION OF BROAD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION OVER
NORTH TEXAS TO MOVE SE. THIS SCENARIO EQUALS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR TODAY.
WE HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM DFW SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB IN THE 7 C/KM RANGE. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW...AND WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...FLOOD ADVISORIES AND PERHAPS
ONE TO TWO FLASH FLOOD WARNING CAN BE EXPECTED.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE AND WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE 20/30 POPS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
KEEP THANKSGIVING SEASONABLE. 85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 61 49 62 46 67 / 80 50 10 0 5
WACO, TX 63 49 64 47 70 / 100 50 10 0 5
PARIS, TX 59 48 58 43 63 / 100 60 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 59 46 63 43 69 / 70 50 10 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 47 62 42 67 / 90 50 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 62 50 64 48 67 / 90 60 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 64 49 62 45 68 / 100 60 20 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 62 49 62 45 69 / 100 60 20 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 64 49 67 46 72 / 100 50 10 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
84/58
000
FXUS64 KAMA 201651 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1051 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND
THEN IT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR
THE WINDS IS THAT THEY WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THEN THEY WILL PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE 17 TO 23
KNOT RANGE. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
1200 UTC TAFS...CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD. SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE BIG BEND REGION WILL PUSH ACROSS
SOUTHERN TX TODAY...WITH NO IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. SFC ANTICYCLONE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY AROUND 10 KTS BUT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. CLK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR FCST AREA.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS
VALUES AS COOL SFC HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE E AND S. WINDS TO BE
MUCH LIGHTER AS WELL.
ON SATURDAY...SFC LEE TROF TO ORGANIZE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT PASSING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL PROGGED TO BE
IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MINOR
COOLING ON SUNDAY.
00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH DIFFERNCES IN HANDLING NEXT
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LVL TROF FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...ALL SEEM TO AGREE
THAT THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE PNHDLS.
THE DIFFERENCE ARISES IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THRU DURG THIS PERIOD. LATEST
00Z MEX HAS COME IN LINE WITH GOING FCST HIGHS FOR MONDAY SO HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN WITH THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW...WITH WIGGLE ROOM TO
ADJUST DOWNWARD MORE IF ECMWF PANS OUT. MODELS ALSO PROG ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT TO ZIP ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. ALL POPS
5 PERCENT OR LESS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. OVERALL... PREVIOUS FCST PCKG
IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND HAVE RETAINED ITS INTEGRITY.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/10
000
FXUS64 KHGX 201620
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1020 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG/S OF I-10 AND WELL OUT INTO THE GULF.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS W/NW OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACHING TROF. QUICK LOOK AT THE
INCOMING 12Z RUNS DIDN`T EXACTLY INITIALIZE THE FINER DETAILS THAT
WELL WITH ISN`T SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE LARGE CLUSTER OFFSHORE
NOT BEING WELL SAMPLED. NO SIGNS OF A SFC LOW YET AND QUITE
FRANKLY DON`T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IF/WHEN/WHERE ONE WILL
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. SUSPECT NAM12 MIGHT BE THE SOLN OF CHOICE IN
THE SHORT TERM WHICH SHOWS CONTINUED RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST FOR
A WHILE...THEN AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW LATER THIS AFTN AND EVNG. WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION AS THIS AREA HAS
SEEN THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. NRN COUNTIES
MIGHT STILL GET SOME DECENT RAINS BUT ASIDE FROM THE USUAL
LOCALIZED ISSUES...THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE IT FOR THE MOST
PART. WILL ALSO KEEP THE MENTION OF ISO SVR NEAR THE COAST AFTER
GLANCING AT THE 88D VAD WIND PROFILE. TIDES RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL AT THE BEACHES AND 2 FEET ABOVE IN THE BAYS. DON`T
EXPECT MANY ISSUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME
ISSUES AT HIGH TIDE LATER THIS EVENING CONSIDERING MODERATE TO
STRONG ERLY WINDS. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 50 64 44 73 / 80 60 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 67 52 62 45 71 / 80 60 50 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 57 63 54 71 / 90 60 40 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
000
FXUS64 KCRP 201603
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1003 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION WILL BE ON RECEIVING OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 37 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 16 WILL HAVE A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM THE SHOWERS FROM 16 TO 18Z. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST BATCH OF
SHOWERS THAT CAME IN EARLIER THIS MORNING ARE LINGERING NEAR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AS WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND AS COASTAL TROF AMELIORATED. GOOD
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY WITH UPSTREAM FRONT
SOUTH OF UVALDE AND AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RGV SFC LOW. WITH
EXCELLENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SWINGING IN EASTWARD FROM THE BRUSH COUNTY TO THE COAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER LOW/COLD POOL APPROACHES
THE REGION AND AS THE LLJ INCREASES TO 30 KNOTS. THE COASTAL
PLAINS...THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH ANTECEDENT WET SOIL CONDITIONS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...AND VICTORIA COUNTIES UNTIL 6
PM. WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FCST TO KEEP WITH THE CURRENT WIND AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
$$
MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL TROF IN CONCERT
WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ WL KEEP STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE THIS LATE AFTN/EVE AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS NEWD AND USHERS IN COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. SEAS HAVE
BUILT TO 8 TO 10 FT THIS MORNING AND WL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN TNT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS...
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY 20Z THIS AFTN AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO
SOUTH TX. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WL BE THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND (VCT
AREA) WHERE MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS WL REDEVELOP TNT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
BECOMES SATURATED DUE TO COOLER NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A STRONG S/WV MOVING THROUGH WEST
TX AND NRN MEXICO WL CONTINUE MOVING EWD TDA. MEANWHILE...A
SUBTROPICAL JET WL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
S/WV...ANOTHER JET STREAK WL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX RGN. A JET
COUPLET WITH VERY STRONG UPR LVL DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TDA ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A WARM FRONT
WHICH CURRENTLY LIES BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND BUOY 42020. STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE RESULT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
1.8-2.0 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WL BE THE RESULT. THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND LOOKS VERY GOOD AND WL BE
CONTINUED. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH THE WATERS
TDA...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL ACCELERATE SEWD AND AID IN THE
BOUNDARY LYR FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
RAIN WL TRACK NEWD WITH THE SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...WL LOWER POPS
FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
AIR BEGINS TO AFFECT SOUTH TX FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ASSCTD WITH THE APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT WL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE WL REALLY TAKE HOLD FROM THE LATE EVENING
ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TNT AS DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW
TAKES HOLD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH 18Z...CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NERN AREAS/WATERS FROM
18-00Z WITH CHC/LKLY ELSEWHERE.
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND LARGE SEAS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT
TIDAL LVLS. TIDES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 FOOT ABV
NORMAL. WITH HIGH TIDES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THE WINDS WL HAVE ALREADY BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME. THUS...THE IMPACT WL NOT BE AS MUCH AS IT
COULD HAVE BEEN. THE NRN WATERS WL APPROACH 2 FT MSL BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT. SO NO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WL KEEP A TIGHT
GRADIENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WL
GRADUALLY BECOME OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NEWD
AND USHERS IN A FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SEAS WL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT TDA AND WL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN TNT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PD.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE POTENT SHORT WAVE
WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLDG INTO
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS S TX. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES BY SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPS AND MOISTURE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING THE MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DVLPG ACROSS S TX AND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHC
OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST BY 12Z TUE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
BAGGY TROF TO THE SW OF OF TX WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP AND WITH THE
MAIN ENERGY FAR N...DO NOT WANT TO GO MORE THAN LOW CHC FOR TUE
WITH THE FRONT. MAIN FORCING LOOKS LIKE WILL BE WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BDRY. MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
BY MID WEEK AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAIN ACROSS S TX BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN CWA INTO WED WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST
TO THE S. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SRN CWA FOR
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORING THEN DRYING TAKES PLACE THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON INTO THU ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 55 72 52 76 / 100 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 72 53 69 47 74 / 100 40 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 55 77 53 79 / 80 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 54 76 50 79 / 90 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 73 57 70 56 74 / 100 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 50 75 49 78 / 80 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 54 76 50 77 / 100 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 58 71 54 75 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SC/70...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
JM/75...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 201559
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
959 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE MORNING BRO SOUNDING AND LAPS CAPE VALUES SHOW
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE BRO CWA WITH
THE 12Z SOUNDING REPORTING A CAPE OF AROUND 1260 J/KG AND AN LI OF
-5.6. AS THE STG OVERNIGHT COASTAL AND GULF CONV CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST...THE ATTENTION IS NOW SHIFTING TO THE
APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEING THE
MAIN WX MAKER FOR DEEP SOUTH TX FOR TODAY AS THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASES. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO
THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE THE PERSISTING LOW LEVEL SC DECKS RESIDING AROUND THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE DRT AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BRO CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A DRIER
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WHICH
WILL HELP TO STABILIZE THE ATMS AND DIMINISH THE CONV CHCS TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LULL IN THE CURRENT ACTIVITY EXPECT THE THE
CONV TO REFORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER
TO THE AREA. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT TEMP AND
POP ALIGNMENT TO REFLECT THE SHORT TERM RADAR...SATL AND SURFACE OB
TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING LOOKS
ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO CALM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THE
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...AT 8 AM BUOY 20 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS AT 23 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 29 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 10 FEET WITH AN 8 SECOND
PERIOD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY
EARLY SATURDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 59 77 56 / 50 20 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 80 58 78 55 / 50 20 0 0
HARLINGEN 80 55 79 52 / 50 20 0 0
MCALLEN 81 56 80 55 / 50 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 55 80 52 / 50 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 61 74 60 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
THE GRAPHICAST PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE/GRAPHICAST.HTM
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...63
MESO/GRAPHICAST...CAMPBELL
000
FXUS64 KFWD 201506 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
905 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
905 AM
06Z GFS/NAM AND 12Z RUC SHOW THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT CEILINGS WILL NOT START FILTERING INTO METROPLEX
TAF SITES UNTIL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY AFTER NOON. UNTIL THEN CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN IFR/OCNL LIFR AND VFR. HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE LIFTING TREND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
BRECKENRIDGE TO SW OF ABILENE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT /CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH/ AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS LINE HAS SINCE EXPANDED AND HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP HAS FORMED IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR PARIS IN A REGION OF BROAD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION OVER
NORTH TEXAS TO MOVE SE. THIS SCENARIO EQUALS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR TODAY.
WE HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM DFW SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB IN THE 7 C/KM RANGE. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW...AND WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...FLOOD ADVISORIES AND PERHAPS
ONE TO TWO FLASH FLOOD WARNING CAN BE EXPECTED.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE AND WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE 20/30 POPS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
KEEP THANKSGIVING SEASONABLE. 85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 61 49 62 46 67 / 70 50 10 0 5
WACO, TX 63 49 64 47 70 / 80 50 10 0 5
PARIS, TX 59 48 58 43 63 / 70 60 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 59 46 63 43 69 / 70 50 10 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 47 62 42 67 / 70 50 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 62 50 64 48 67 / 80 60 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 64 49 62 45 68 / 80 60 20 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 49 62 45 69 / 80 60 20 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 64 49 67 46 72 / 90 50 10 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 201211 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
MULTIPLE AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WITH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION COUPLED WITH MVFR(BRIEF
IFR) CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND A WIND SHIFT.
WACO WILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF THUNDER THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW
TRANSLATES NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD END THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
HOWEVER...SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN
OVERCAST BETWEEN 5000 AND AND 7000 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE.
A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND EARLY WILL TURN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
BY MID MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
79
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
BRECKENRIDGE TO SW OF ABILENE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT /CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH/ AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS LINE HAS SINCE EXPANDED AND HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP HAS FORMED IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR PARIS IN A REGION OF BROAD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION OVER
NORTH TEXAS TO MOVE SE. THIS SCENARIO EQUALS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR TODAY.
WE HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM DFW SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB IN THE 7 C/KM RANGE. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW...AND WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...FLOOD ADVISORIES AND PERHAPS
ONE TO TWO FLASH FLOOD WARNING CAN BE EXPECTED.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE AND WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE 20/30 POPS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO KEEP THANKSGIVING SEASONABLE.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 61 49 62 46 67 / 70 50 10 0 5
WACO, TX 63 49 64 47 70 / 80 50 10 0 5
PARIS, TX 59 48 58 43 63 / 70 60 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 59 46 63 43 69 / 70 50 10 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 47 62 42 67 / 70 50 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 62 50 64 48 67 / 80 60 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 64 49 62 45 68 / 80 60 20 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 49 62 45 69 / 80 60 20 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 64 49 67 46 72 / 90 50 10 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/85
000
FXUS64 KMAF 201207
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS
AND STOCKTON PLATEAU THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR TAF SITES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST...LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF NORTH TODAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING 12KTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BIG BEND THIS MORNING IS PUSHING
THE CONVECTION EAST OF OUR CWA. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE
SOUTH BRINGING COLDER TEMPS TODAY EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING UP. AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS
EAST WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A QUICK RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS
SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH
THE GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST OF ALL SOLUTIONS. PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT WITH THE FRONT
DUE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE BIG BEND AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH THIS LAST FRONT.
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED COOLER
AIR INTO WEST TEXAS KEEPING TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THANKSGIVING WITH SOME WARMING POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
000
FXUS64 KHGX 201206
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
606 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CORE RAIN TO FALL SOUTH OF THE INTESTATE 10 CORRIDOR...PERIODS OF
IFR HEAVIER RAIN ALTHOUGH MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
-SHRA TO COVER REMAINDER OF NORTHERN HUBS. BROAD UPPER TROUGH
STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE (OR TWO) TO
KICK UP THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWERED MVFR
VISBIES IN HEAVIEST RAIN MAINLY FROM HOUSTON HUBS SOUTHWARD.
ELEVATED THUNDER (OR AN ISOLATED CELL) POSSIBLY ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING WARM FRONT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AROUND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. AS THE STRENGTHENING WEST
TEXAS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE EAST...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A SURFACE LOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO GENERALLY FOCUS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS
RAINFALL FORECAST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THE WATCH AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALIZED 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND OFFSHORE STILL
LOOKS GOOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS TOO WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOST STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
TOO AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS PILE WATER ALONG THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND LOCATION THAT THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES DURING THE DAY TODAY...BOTH
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING.
MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLIES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A BLANKET OF LIGHT RAIN ALL IN RELATION TO AN
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
TRAVELING UP THE COASTLINE. VERY AGITATED SEAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS STRONG EASTERLIES...TURNING NORTHEASTERLY...REMAIN IN THE
15 TO 25 GUST TO 35 KNOT RANGE. WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO
2 FEET OF WATER ON TOP OF A 1 TO 2 FOOT ACTUAL TIDE. SCA AND CFW OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO COVER THESE VERY DETERIORATED MARITIME
CONDITIONS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 50 64 44 73 / 80 60 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 52 62 45 71 / 80 60 50 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 57 63 54 71 / 90 60 40 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42
000
FXUS64 KAMA 201150 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
1200 UTC TAFS...CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD. SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE BIG BEND REGION WILL PUSH ACROSS
SOUTHERN TX TODAY...WITH NO IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. SFC ANTICYCLONE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOULD SEE NORTHERLY WINDS
TODAY AROUND 10 KTS BUT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS...WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. CLK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR FCST AREA.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS
VALUES AS COOL SFC HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE E AND S. WINDS TO BE
MUCH LIGHTER AS WELL.
ON SATURDAY...SFC LEE TROF TO ORGANIZE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT PASSING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL PROGGED TO BE
IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MINOR
COOLING ON SUNDAY.
00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH DIFFERNCES IN HANDLING NEXT
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LVL TROF FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...ALL SEEM TO AGREE
THAT THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE PNHDLS.
THE DIFFERENCE ARISES IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THRU DURG THIS PERIOD. LATEST
00Z MEX HAS COME IN LINE WITH GOING FCST HIGHS FOR MONDAY SO HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN WITH THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW...WITH WIGGLE ROOM TO
ADJUST DOWNWARD MORE IF ECMWF PANS OUT. MODELS ALSO PROG ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT TO ZIP ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. ALL POPS
5 PERCENT OR LESS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. OVERALL... PREVIOUS FCST PCKG
IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND HAVE RETAINED ITS INTEGRITY.
ANDRADE
FIRE WEATHER...
BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ANDRADE
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KCRP 201143
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
543 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY 20Z THIS AFTN AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO
SOUTH TX. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WL BE THE NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND (VCT
AREA) WHERE MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS WL REDEVELOP TNT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND
BECOMES SATURATED DUE TO COOLER NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A STRONG S/WV MOVING THROUGH WEST
TX AND NRN MEXICO WL CONTINUE MOVING EWD TDA. MEANWHILE...A
SUBTROPICAL JET WL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
S/WV...ANOTHER JET STREAK WL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX RGN. A JET
COUPLET WITH VERY STRONG UPR LVL DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TDA ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A WARM FRONT
WHICH CURRENTLY LIES BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND BUOY 42020. STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE RESULT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
1.8-2.0 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WL BE THE RESULT. THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND LOOKS VERY GOOD AND WL BE
CONTINUED. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH THE WATERS
TDA...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL ACCELERATE SEWD AND AID IN THE
BOUNDARY LYR FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
RAIN WL TRACK NEWD WITH THE SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...WL LOWER POPS
FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
AIR BEGINS TO AFFECT SOUTH TX FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ASSCTD WITH THE APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT WL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE WL REALLY TAKE HOLD FROM THE LATE EVENING
ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TNT AS DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW
TAKES HOLD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH 18Z...CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NERN AREAS/WATERS FROM
18-00Z WITH CHC/LKLY ELSEWHERE.
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND LARGE SEAS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT
TIDAL LVLS. TIDES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 FOOT ABV
NORMAL. WITH HIGH TIDES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THE WINDS WL HAVE ALREADY BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME. THUS...THE IMPACT WL NOT BE AS MUCH AS IT
COULD HAVE BEEN. THE NRN WATERS WL APPROACH 2 FT MSL BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT. SO NO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WL KEEP A TIGHT
GRADIENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WL
GRADUALLY BECOME OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NEWD
AND USHERS IN A FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SEAS WL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT TDA AND WL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN TNT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PD.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE POTENT SHORT WAVE
WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLDG INTO
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS S TX. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES BY SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPS AND MOISTURE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING THE MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DVLPG ACROSS S TX AND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHC
OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST BY 12Z TUE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
BAGGY TROF TO THE SW OF OF TX WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP AND WITH THE
MAIN ENERGY FAR N...DO NOT WANT TO GO MORE THAN LOW CHC FOR TUE
WITH THE FRONT. MAIN FORCING LOOKS LIKE WILL BE WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BDRY. MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
BY MID WEEK AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAIN ACROSS S TX BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN CWA INTO WED WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST
TO THE S. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SRN CWA FOR
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORING THEN DRYING TAKES PLACE THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON INTO THU ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 55 72 52 76 / 100 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 72 53 69 47 74 / 100 40 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 55 77 53 79 / 80 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 54 76 50 79 / 90 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 73 57 70 56 74 / 100 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 50 75 49 78 / 80 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 54 76 50 77 / 100 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 58 71 54 75 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
MB
000
FXUS64 KSJT 201133
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
533 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU 16Z THIS MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS EXC KABI AND KSJT. SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT THE
I-10 TERMINALS AND KBBD THRU 16Z AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BRADY TO SONORA...AND IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ALONG AND EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA. NAM AND GFS BOTH SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TRICKY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY IN THE 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. CLEARING
SHOULD BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. BOTH
GFS AND NAM WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW
TONIGHT. WE ARE GOING WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WITH UPPER 30S IN THE WEST. 09
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AS NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE
CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DEEPENS THE SYSTEM INTO
THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS IT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE PLACEMENT...BOTH MODELS PUSH THE ASSOCIATED DRY COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING/EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S ON MONDAY...A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO WEST
CENTRAL TX BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
DIG INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THAT SYSTEM FARTHER TO
THE EAST HOWEVER...ONLY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS INDICATED FOR
OUR AREA WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. 19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 63 40 65 43 72 / 40 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 65 39 69 42 73 / 30 10 0 0 0
JUNCTION 65 40 69 40 74 / 50 10 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLUB 201122
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
522 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
NO THREAT TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN LITTLE FANFARE LOCALLY AS THE DEEPEST
ASCENT AND MOISTURE REMAIN COLLOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
ATTENDANT UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING NORTH TO THE ERN DAKOTAS IS
ON SCHEDULE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING THE
FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. A SURFACE PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL IN TURN INCH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY RESULTING IN RATHER
UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS AND LIGHTER NLY WINDS THAN THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
COOLER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT THAN WERE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AS LIGHTER
WINDS/LESS MIXING ACCOMPANY THE LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE.
LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING BIG
BEND SYSTEM AND ANOTHER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WEAK LEE SFC TROF FOR LATE SATURDAY AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. ZONAL FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC TROF BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT GET TOO HIGH AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER...THE NEXT TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THERE
ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPENS THE TROF A
BIT MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE TROF QUITE A BIT
MORE AND IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD ALLOW A STRONGER SFC LOW TO SET UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM...WHICH IN TURN WOULD PUT THE FCST
AREA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN. THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT H500 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH POSES SOME
ISSUES FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST.
THE ONLY THING THAT BOTH MODELS AGREE ON IS THE SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BUT THE ECMWF IS NOW QUITE
STRONG WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SPEED THE PUSH OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A MORE GRADUAL
TRANSITION. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FCST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW...FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 28 65 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 59 29 67 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 60 29 68 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 61 28 69 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 30 68 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 30 68 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 32 69 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 61 36 67 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 62 32 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 62 38 69 42 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14/93
000
FXUS64 KBRO 201120 AAA
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
520 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...AS MENTIONED A LITTLE OVER AN HOUR AGO...THINGS CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY WHEN DEEP CONVECTION INTERFERES WITH THE BACKGROUND
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SURE ENOUGH...THIS MORNING`S CRANKED ACTIVITY
HAS COALESCED INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH IS
ITSELF MORPHING INTO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. ALL THIS ACTIVITY
HAS PUSHED WELL INTO THE GULF AND WELL NORTH OF THE LOWER VALLEY
WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR(!) RIGHT NOW. TRAILING THIN LINE OF THUNDER
IS ALL THAT`S LEFT RIGHT NOW BETWEEN FALFURRIAS AND FALCON DAM.
06Z GFS...AND TO A SIMILAR DEGREE THE NAM...EACH FAVOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH
LATE MORNING BEFORE THE TRAILING FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST. AT THAT
POINT...MOISTURE THICKENS UP BUT THE BEST FORCING IS LONG GONE.
IN SHORT...HAVE DONE SIGNIFICANT "SURGERY" ON THE GRIDS ESPECIALLY
EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE LEFT MORE OPTIMISM IN SKY COVER AND
REDUCED RAIN CHANCES GREATLY IN THE LOWER VALLEY. BETWEEN 9 AM AND
NOON HOWEVER EXPECT CLOUDS TO BUILD IN RESIDUAL UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WITH NO CAPPING INVERSION AND EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT...BUT HOW
MUCH REMAINS TO BE SEEN BEFORE THE DRYING WEST...THEN
NORTHWEST...WINDS ARRIVE. AT THIS POINT...HAVE BROUGHT 40/50
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE PICTURE INTO MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE TAILING OFF AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE IMPLIED.
THE QUICK CLOUD BUILDUP AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD CAP TEMPERATURES NOT
TOO FAR FROM CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS...STILL EXPECTING MID 70S
NORTH AND LOWER 80S SOUTH BEFORE THE WIND SHIFT AND AFTERNOON
COOLING BEGINS.
TEXT INFORMATION UPDATES WILL BE OUT SOON.
UPDATE: 52/BG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
..INCLEMENT FRIDAY WEATHER BUT A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD...
SYNOPSIS...MESOSCALE COMPLEX HAS FIRED...NOT TOO
SURPRISINGLY...FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS TO
CORPUS AND BACKBUILDING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS TAILING
THROUGH KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY. KENEDY STORM MOVING ACROSS THE
LAGUNA RECENTLY CARRIED 70+ DBZ AT THE FREEZING LEVEL (AT LEAST).
ALL THIS HAS CRANKED IN AREA WHERE EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
JUXTAPOSITION OF COUPLED JETS WHICH IS AIDING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...ALL THE WHILE SEEING ACTIVITY FOCUS ALONG THE OLD
WARM FRONT WHICH PASSED THE LOWER RGV EARLIER THURSDAY.
OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CRUISING EAST NORTHEAST INTO
ZAPATA/NW STARR/JIM HOGG COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE.
DISCUSSION...NEAR TERM/TODAY: AN EVOLVING SITUATION THROUGH
MIDDAY THAT MAY REQUIRE QUICK GRID UPDATES EVEN BEFORE DAYBREAK
WHEN OUR SHIFT ENDS. CONTINUING NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST UNTIL DAYBREAK (12Z) AS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND CONTINUES TO ACTIVATE CONVECTION IN THE WARM
SECTOR. QUESTION WILL BE...DOES ENERGY SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST SOONER THAN LATER? IF SO...SIGNIFICANT RAINS COULD BE
OVER ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND CURRENT MORNING RAIN
CHANCES ALONG COAST WOULD HAVE TO BE CUT BACK FROM NEAR CERTAIN
EXPECTATIONS TO SCATTERED. BELIEVE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO REFIRE MORE BANDS
OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER
DAYBREAK. FARTHER WEST...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AS SURFACE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY.
AS FOR ANY SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER...BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND PERHAPS INTO MID MORNING NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS
THE GULF WATERS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...A STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGEST HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR A SMALL TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT WITH DISCRETE CELLS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN WEAKENING LATER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF BUT
PERHAPS NOT MUCH LONGER THAN 2 OR 3 PM...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND CONTINUING FOR A FEW
HOURS BEHIND IT.
LASTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND HOW WARM IT GETS WILL
DEPEND ON DURATION OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND EXPECTED BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT LITTLE RISE ACROSS KENEDY-ZAPATA BEFORE
SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE LOWER VALLEY SHOULD POKE 80
ESPECIALLY IF/WHEN SURFACE WINDS VEER. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE 70S AND 60S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES. FRONT IS NOT THAT POTENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FRESH BUT NOT TOO BRISK AND IT WILL NOT
FEEL ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...SYSTEM EXITS STAGE RIGHT
EARLY...LEAVING BEHIND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS ENDING AROUND
OR AFTER SUNSET. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS HIDALGO/BROOKS AND
POINTS WEST LATER TONIGHT BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY UNDER LIGHT WINDS. SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN
HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THROUGH
THE 70S...AND A CLEAR MAINLY CALM NIGHT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS AND 50 TO 55
ELSEWHERE. A FEW CLOUDS SUNDAY WILL SIGNIFY A SLOW RETURN OF
HUMIDITY BUT BARELY NOTICEABLE AT THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...NOT MUCH TIME FOR FULL
ASSESSMENT. HOWEVER...TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME OVERRUNNING RAINS
BEHIND IT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THIS...AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAS RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO 70 PERCENT. GIVEN THIS...SEE NO REASON NOT TO BUMP
INTO THE CHANCE (30 PERCENT) RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH CALL
FOR SURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE MILD AND TUESDAY TRANSITION. RAW GFS 2
METER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST WEDNESDAY COULD STRUGGLE OUT OF THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OCCUR. FOR
NOW...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE JUST A TOUCH TO BEGIN A TREND.
THURSDAY IS A QUESTION MARK...FOR NOW HAVE KEPT OPTIMISM AND
BROUGHT SOME CLEARING BACK INTO THE MIX WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. RECENT BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
ABOVE 20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING
ABOVE 7 FEET. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FORM THROUGH THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
SHRAS/+TSRAS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THIS SURFACE LOW
EVENTUALLY KICKS EAST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY NOON AND
GRADUALLY VEER NORTH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND SUNNY WX WILL FOLLOW
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...WHEN MSTR CONVERGES TO OUR
REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FROPA TUESDAY.
AVIATION...MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERIODIC
IFR IN +TSRA W/VSBYS LESS THAN 3/4SM. MAIN THREAT TO FLYING DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBILITIES OF THIS CONVECTION. BY
SATURDAY SURFACE LOW KICKS EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND IT SWITCHING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST AND CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 59 77 56 / 50 20 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 80 58 78 55 / 50 20 0 0
HARLINGEN 80 55 79 52 / 50 20 0 0
MCALLEN 81 56 80 55 / 50 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 55 80 52 / 50 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 61 74 60 / 50 20 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
52/58
000
FXUS64 KEWX 201115
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
515 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL WITH
SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MOVING NE AT 25 KNOTS. EXPECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN THE COLD FRONT IN
THE TX HILL COUNTRY WILL PUSH SWD THRU THE AREA AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR MOST AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
21-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SHIFT TO
NLY WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK SFC LOW IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OFF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST PROVIDING AN AMPLE INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND RESULT IN
A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TEXAS COAST TOWARDS LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE TOTALS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. HAVE LEFT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION ALONE.
WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STREET FLOODING
ACROSS URBAN AND METRO AREAS AS RAINFALL TOTALS AS LOW AS ONE INCH
CAN CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUTED TODAY
AND GENERALLY PEAK IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CONTINUE
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A SLIGHT MOISTENING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MUCH LOWER AS THE BULK OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUES.
MODELS ARE DIVERGENT AS FAR AS HOW LONG THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE FAVORED
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 53 65 46 71 / 100 40 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 51 66 39 70 / 100 40 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 50 70 43 73 / 100 30 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 49 64 44 69 / 70 40 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 46 72 50 74 / 40 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 51 66 45 71 / 100 50 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 45 72 43 75 / 80 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 49 68 43 72 / 100 30 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 52 64 44 71 / 100 60 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 50 70 46 74 / 100 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 71 48 75 / 100 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA...LEE.
&&
$$
25/01
000
FXUS64 KHGX 201056
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADD MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
456 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AROUND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. AS THE STRENGTHENING WEST
TEXAS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE EAST...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A SURFACE LOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO GENERALLY FOCUS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS
RAINFALL FORECAST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THE WATCH AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALIZED 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND OFFSHORE STILL
LOOKS GOOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS TOO WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOST STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
TOO AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS PILE WATER ALONG THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND LOCATION THAT THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES DURING THE DAY TODAY...BOTH
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLIES...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A BLANKET OF LIGHT RAIN ALL IN RELATION TO AN
UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
TRAVELING UP THE COASTLINE. VERY AGITATED SEAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS STRONG EASTERLIES...TURNING NORTHEASTERLY...REMAIN IN THE
15 TO 25 GUST TO 35 KNOT RANGE. WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AND
COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS INEVITABLE AT THIS POINT WITH ANOTHER 1 TO
2 FEET OF WATER ON TOP OF A 1 TO 2 FOOT ACTUAL TIDE. SCA AND CFW OUT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO COVER THESE VERY DETERIORATED MARITIME
CONDITIONS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 50 64 44 73 / 80 60 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 52 62 45 71 / 80 60 50 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 57 63 54 71 / 90 60 40 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KAMA 201016
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
OUR FCST AREA.
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS
VALUES AS COOL SFC HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES OFF TO THE E AND S. WINDS TO BE
MUCH LIGHTER AS WELL.
ON SATURDAY...SFC LEE TROF TO ORGANIZE IN ADVANCE OF NEXT PASSING
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF
DOWNSLOPING SW WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL PROGGED TO BE
IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH SOME MINOR
COOLING ON SUNDAY.
00Z GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH DIFFERNCES IN HANDLING NEXT
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LVL TROF FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...ALL SEEM TO AGREE
THAT THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE PNHDLS.
THE DIFFERENCE ARISES IN HOW MUCH COLD AIR MAKES IT INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THRU DURG THIS PERIOD. LATEST
00Z MEX HAS COME IN LINE WITH GOING FCST HIGHS FOR MONDAY SO HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAN WITH THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW...WITH WIGGLE ROOM TO
ADJUST DOWNWARD MORE IF ECMWF PANS OUT. MODELS ALSO PROG ANOTHER WEAK
COLD FRONT TO ZIP ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. ALL POPS
5 PERCENT OR LESS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. OVERALL... PREVIOUS FCST PCKG
IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND HAVE RETAINED ITS INTEGRITY.
ANDRADE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 MPH. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ANDRADE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 58 32 65 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 57 32 62 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 57 28 62 29 54 / 0 0 0 0 0
BORGER TX 59 35 65 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 59 31 65 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
CANYON TX 58 31 65 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 60 34 66 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 58 28 62 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
GUYMON OK 59 31 62 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
HEREFORD TX 59 30 65 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 58 31 62 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
PAMPA TX 59 34 64 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 61 35 65 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 61 35 65 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201006
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
306 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL RESULT
IN CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE ON SATURDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. DRY AND GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS PART OF A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
A COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PATTERN OF DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THOUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE
OVER THE STATE TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS NO MOISTURE WITH IT WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SURFACE WINDS MAY INCREASE INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY BY THE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. AN ALMOST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUE TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH
SOME BREEZINESS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST EARLY TUESDAY THAT
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE MODELS SETTING UP A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA THAT COLD HELP PULL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION. LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN UNCERTAIN ON THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS POSSIBLE MOISTURE SURGE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY WITH
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON BREEZES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 65 40 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 61 37 65 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 65 36 71 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 36 68 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 48 23 51 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 33 69 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 59 32 62 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 32 70 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 66 29 69 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/04
000
FXUS64 KEWX 201000
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
400 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY. A WEAK SFC LOW IS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OFF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST PROVIDING AN AMPLE INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS DEEP MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND RESULT IN
A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TEXAS COAST TOWARDS LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE TOTALS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 OR MORE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. HAVE LEFT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION ALONE.
WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STREET FLOODING
ACROSS URBAN AND METRO AREAS AS RAINFALL TOTALS AS LOW AS ONE INCH
CAN CAUSE RUNOFF PROBLEMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUTED TODAY
AND GENERALLY PEAK IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CONTINUE
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A SLIGHT MOISTENING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MUCH LOWER AS THE BULK OF
THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUES.
MODELS ARE DIVERGENT AS FAR AS HOW LONG THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE FAVORED
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 65 53 65 46 71 / 100 40 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 51 66 39 70 / 100 40 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 67 50 70 43 73 / 100 30 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 49 64 44 69 / 70 40 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 71 46 72 50 74 / 40 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 51 66 45 71 / 100 50 10 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 71 45 72 43 75 / 80 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 66 49 68 43 72 / 100 30 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 66 52 64 44 71 / 100 60 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 69 50 70 46 74 / 100 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 51 71 48 75 / 100 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA...LEE.
&&
$$
25/01
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200955
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION THIS
MORNING WILL RESULT IN LITTLE FANFARE LOCALLY AS THE DEEPEST
ASCENT AND MOISTURE REMAIN COLLOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
ATTENDANT UPPER TROF AXIS STRETCHING NORTH TO THE ERN DAKOTAS IS
ON SCHEDULE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING ALLOWING THE
FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. A SURFACE PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL IN TURN INCH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY RESULTING IN RATHER
UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS AND LIGHTER NLY WINDS THAN THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE
COOLER MIN TEMPS TONIGHT THAN WERE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AS LIGHTER
WINDS/LESS MIXING ACCOMPANY THE LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PART OF THE FORECAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE
PLACE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING BIG
BEND SYSTEM AND ANOTHER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WEAK LEE SFC TROF FOR LATE SATURDAY AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. ZONAL FLOW THEN SETS UP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A DEEPER SFC TROF BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD NOT GET TOO HIGH AS THE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER...THE NEXT TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MONDAY AND THERE
ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DEEPENS THE TROF A
BIT MORE THAN THE ECMWF BUT KEEPS THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE TROF QUITE A BIT
MORE AND IS SLOWER WHICH WOULD ALLOW A STRONGER SFC LOW TO SET UP
OVER SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM...WHICH IN TURN WOULD PUT THE FCST
AREA IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE DRY SLOT TO MOVE OVERHEAD AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN. THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT H500 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH POSES SOME
ISSUES FOR MAX TEMP FORECAST.
THE ONLY THING THAT BOTH MODELS AGREE ON IS THE SFC COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY BUT THE ECMWF IS NOW QUITE
STRONG WITH THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD SPEED THE PUSH OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A MORE GRADUAL
TRANSITION. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FCST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL PUSH A SERIES OF
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW...FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
JORDAN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 58 28 65 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 59 29 67 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 60 29 68 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 61 28 69 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 61 30 68 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 62 30 68 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 62 32 69 27 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 61 36 67 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 62 32 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 62 38 69 42 69 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93/14
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200952
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
352 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A STRONG S/WV MOVING THROUGH WEST
TX AND NRN MEXICO WL CONTINUE MOVING EWD TDA. MEANWHILE...A
SUBTROPICAL JET WL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH IN A VERY FAVORABLE
LOCATION. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
S/WV...ANOTHER JET STREAK WL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX RGN. A JET
COUPLET WITH VERY STRONG UPR LVL DIFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE WL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TDA ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING WL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A WARM FRONT
WHICH CURRENTLY LIES BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND BUOY 42020. STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WL BE THE RESULT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
1.8-2.0 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN WL BE THE RESULT. THE CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND LOOKS VERY GOOD AND WL BE
CONTINUED. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH THE WATERS
TDA...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WL ACCELERATE SEWD AND AID IN THE
BOUNDARY LYR FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVY
RAIN WL TRACK NEWD WITH THE SFC LOW. AS A RESULT...WL LOWER POPS
FOR THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME AS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT
AIR BEGINS TO AFFECT SOUTH TX FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT ASSCTD WITH THE APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT WL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE WL REALLY TAKE HOLD FROM THE LATE EVENING
ONWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TNT AS DEEPENING NORTHWEST FLOW
TAKES HOLD. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS TEMPS. WIDESPREAD CATEGORICAL
POPS THROUGH 18Z...CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE NERN AREAS/WATERS FROM
18-00Z WITH CHC/LKLY ELSEWHERE.
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND LARGE SEAS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO IMPACT
TIDAL LVLS. TIDES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 FOOT ABV
NORMAL. WITH HIGH TIDES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...THE WINDS WL HAVE ALREADY BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME. THUS...THE IMPACT WL NOT BE AS MUCH AS IT
COULD HAVE BEEN. THE NRN WATERS WL APPROACH 2 FT MSL BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT. SO NO COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WL KEEP A TIGHT
GRADIENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WL
GRADUALLY BECOME OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EVE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NEWD
AND USHERS IN A FAST APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SEAS WL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT TDA AND WL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN TNT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE POTENT SHORT WAVE
WILL LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLDG INTO
THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS S TX. ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES BY SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPS AND MOISTURE. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING THE MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A WEAK SFC TROF DVLPG ACROSS S TX AND LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHC
OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH BRINGING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST BY 12Z TUE. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
BAGGY TROF TO THE SW OF OF TX WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP AND WITH THE
MAIN ENERGY FAR N...DO NOT WANT TO GO MORE THAN LOW CHC FOR TUE
WITH THE FRONT. MAIN FORCING LOOKS LIKE WILL BE WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BDRY. MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
BY MID WEEK AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP REMAIN ACROSS S TX BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS KEEPS
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE SRN CWA INTO WED WITH THE FRONT STALLING JUST
TO THE S. FOR NOW WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SRN CWA FOR
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORING THEN DRYING TAKES PLACE THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON INTO THU ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 55 72 52 76 / 100 20 10 10 10
VICTORIA 72 53 69 47 74 / 100 40 10 10 10
LAREDO 77 55 77 53 79 / 80 10 10 10 10
ALICE 76 54 76 50 79 / 90 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 73 57 70 56 74 / 100 20 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 50 75 49 78 / 80 10 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 77 54 76 50 77 / 100 10 10 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 76 58 71 54 75 / 100 20 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200942
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BRADY TO SONORA...AND IS MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
ALONG AND EAST OF A BROWNWOOD TO JUNCTION LINE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA. NAM AND GFS BOTH SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
TRICKY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STAY IN THE 60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. CLEARING
SHOULD BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. BOTH
GFS AND NAM WRAP SOME MOISTURE AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW
TONIGHT. WE ARE GOING WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...WITH UPPER 30S IN THE WEST. 09
.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...COULD HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING IN OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AS NARROW SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST.
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE
CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS DEEPENS THE SYSTEM INTO
THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF DEEPENS IT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE PLACEMENT...BOTH MODELS PUSH THE ASSOCIATED DRY COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING/EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 70S ON MONDAY...A COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO WEST
CENTRAL TX BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
DIG INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE FORECAST PLACEMENT OF THAT SYSTEM FARTHER TO
THE EAST HOWEVER...ONLY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS INDICATED FOR
OUR AREA WITH MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. 19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 63 40 65 43 72 / 40 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 65 39 69 42 73 / 30 10 0 0 0
JUNCTION 65 40 69 40 74 / 50 10 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200937
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
337 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL AROUND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA AND OFFSHORE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN SO FAR. AS THE STRENGTHENING WEST
TEXAS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE EAST...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BECOMES INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. A SURFACE LOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA AND SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO GENERALLY FOCUS NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDES ALL COUNTIES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS
RAINFALL FORECAST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH OF THE WATCH AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
WITH LOCALIZED 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA AND OFFSHORE STILL
LOOKS GOOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS TOO WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOST STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
TOO AS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS PILE WATER ALONG THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND LOCATION THAT THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES DURING THE DAY TODAY...BOTH
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 63 50 64 44 73 / 80 60 20 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 66 52 62 45 71 / 80 60 50 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 57 63 54 71 / 90 60 40 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT
BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...
WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200929
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
329 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BIG BEND THIS MORNING IS PUSHING
THE CONVECTION EAST OF OUR CWA. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE
SOUTH BRINGING COLDER TEMPS TODAY EVEN WITH SKIES CLEARING UP. AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS
EAST WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A QUICK RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS
SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH
THE GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST OF ALL SOLUTIONS. PREFER THE SLOWER
ECMWF BUT DIFFERENCES ARE NOT MUCH AT THIS POINT WITH THE FRONT
DUE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME THOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE BIG BEND AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH THIS LAST FRONT.
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED COOLER
AIR INTO WEST TEXAS KEEPING TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THANKSGIVING WITH SOME WARMING POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 63 37 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 66 33 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 68 40 72 44 / 20 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 64 38 76 46 / 10 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 31 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 67 32 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 62 27 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 62 33 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 62 35 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 69 34 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10
000
FXUS64 KBRO 200920
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
320 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
...INCLEMENT FRIDAY WEATHER BUT A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD...
.SYNOPSIS...MESOSCALE COMPLEX HAS FIRED...NOT TOO
SURPRISINGLY...FROM THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS TO
CORPUS AND BACKBUILDING INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS TAILING
THROUGH KENEDY AND BROOKS COUNTY. KENEDY STORM MOVING ACROSS THE
LAGUNA RECENTLY CARRIED 70+ DBZ AT THE FREEZING LEVEL (AT LEAST).
ALL THIS HAS CRANKED IN AREA WHERE EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
JUXTAPOSITION OF COUPLED JETS WHICH IS AIDING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...ALL THE WHILE SEEING ACTIVITY FOCUS ALONG THE OLD
WARM FRONT WHICH PASSED THE LOWER RGV EARLIER THURSDAY.
OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CRUISING EAST NORTHEAST INTO
ZAPATA/NW STARR/JIM HOGG COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NEAR TERM/TODAY: AN EVOLVING SITUATION THROUGH
MIDDAY THAT MAY REQUIRE QUICK GRID UPDATES EVEN BEFORE DAYBREAK
WHEN OUR SHIFT ENDS. CONTINUING NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION FROM WEST TO EAST UNTIL DAYBREAK (12Z) AS SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES AND CONTINUES TO ACTIVATE CONVECTION IN THE WARM
SECTOR. QUESTION WILL BE...DOES ENERGY SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST SOONER THAN LATER? IF SO...SIGNIFICANT RAINS COULD BE
OVER ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND CURRENT MORNING RAIN
CHANCES ALONG COAST WOULD HAVE TO BE CUT BACK FROM NEAR CERTAIN
EXPECTATIONS TO SCATTERED. BELIEVE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH APPROACHING WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO REFIRE MORE BANDS
OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ALONG ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES AFTER
DAYBREAK. FARTHER WEST...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF AS SURFACE
WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY.
AS FOR ANY SEVERE/HAZARDOUS WEATHER...BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND PERHAPS INTO MID MORNING NEAR THE COAST AS WELL AS
THE GULF WATERS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...A STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGEST HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR A SMALL TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT WITH DISCRETE CELLS BEFORE LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN WEAKENING LATER THIS MORNING.
BY AFTERNOON...THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF BUT
PERHAPS NOT MUCH LONGER THAN 2 OR 3 PM...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND CONTINUING FOR A FEW
HOURS BEHIND IT.
LASTLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND HOW WARM IT GETS WILL
DEPEND ON DURATION OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND EXPECTED BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION. EXPECT LITTLE RISE ACROSS KENEDY-ZAPATA BEFORE
SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THE LOWER VALLEY SHOULD POKE 80
ESPECIALLY IF/WHEN SURFACE WINDS VEER. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE 70S AND 60S UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES. FRONT IS NOT THAT POTENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FRESH BUT NOT TOO BRISK AND IT WILL NOT
FEEL ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...SYSTEM EXITS STAGE RIGHT
EARLY...LEAVING BEHIND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS ENDING AROUND
OR AFTER SUNSET. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ACROSS HIDALGO/BROOKS AND
POINTS WEST LATER TONIGHT BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG ON ACROSS THE
LOWER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE GREAT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY UNDER LIGHT WINDS. SUNSHINE THROUGH THIN
HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THROUGH
THE 70S...AND A CLEAR MAINLY CALM NIGHT WILL ALLOW READINGS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S IN NORMALLY COOLER RURAL AREAS AND 50 TO 55
ELSEWHERE. A FEW CLOUDS SUNDAY WILL SIGNIFY A SLOW RETURN OF
HUMIDITY BUT BARELY NOTICEABLE AT THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...NOT MUCH TIME FOR FULL
ASSESSMENT. HOWEVER...TRENDS ARE FAVORING ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE
BY TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME OVERRUNNING RAINS
BEHIND IT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THIS...AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAS RAIN
CHANCES BACK TO 70 PERCENT. GIVEN THIS...SEE NO REASON NOT TO BUMP
INTO THE CHANCE (30 PERCENT) RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH CALL
FOR SURE. MONDAY SHOULD BE MILD AND TUESDAY TRANSITION. RAW GFS 2
METER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST WEDNESDAY COULD STRUGGLE OUT OF THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN OCCUR. FOR
NOW...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE JUST A TOUCH TO BEGIN A TREND.
THURSDAY IS A QUESTION MARK...FOR NOW HAVE KEPT OPTIMISM AND
BROUGHT SOME CLEARING BACK INTO THE MIX WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST. RECENT BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
ABOVE 20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING
ABOVE 7 FEET. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FORM THROUGH THE DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
SHRAS/+TSRAS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THIS SURFACE LOW
EVENTUALLY KICKS EAST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY NOON AND
GRADUALLY VEER NORTH EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AND SUNNY WX WILL FOLLOW
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...WHEN MSTR CONVERGES TO OUR
REGION AHEAD OF ANOTHER FROPA TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PERIODIC
IFR IN +TSRA W/VSBYS LESS THAN 3/4SM. MAIN THREAT TO FLYING DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE POSSIBILITIES OF THIS CONVECTION. BY
SATURDAY SURFACE LOW KICKS EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND IT SWITCHING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST AND CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 59 77 56 / 80 20 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 80 58 78 55 / 80 20 0 0
HARLINGEN 80 55 79 52 / 80 20 0 0
MCALLEN 81 56 80 55 / 70 10 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 77 55 80 52 / 50 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 61 74 60 / 80 20 0 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...52/BSG
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...58/JP
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200852 CCA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
BRECKENRIDGE TO SW OF ABILENE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT /CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH/ AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS LINE HAS SINCE EXPANDED AND HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP HAS FORMED IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR PARIS IN A REGION OF BROAD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION OVER
NORTH TEXAS TO MOVE SE. THIS SCENARIO EQUALS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR TODAY.
WE HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM DFW SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB IN THE 7 C/KM RANGE. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING REMAINS LOW...AND WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...FLOOD ADVISORIES AND PERHAPS
ONE TO TWO FLASH FLOOD WARNING CAN BE EXPECTED.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE AND WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE 20/30 POPS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO KEEP THANKSGIVING SEASONABLE.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 61 49 62 46 67 / 70 50 10 0 5
WACO, TX 63 49 64 47 70 / 80 50 10 0 5
PARIS, TX 59 48 58 43 63 / 70 60 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 59 46 63 43 69 / 70 50 10 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 47 62 42 67 / 70 50 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 62 50 64 48 67 / 80 60 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 64 49 62 45 68 / 80 60 20 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 49 62 45 69 / 80 60 20 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 64 49 67 46 72 / 90 50 10 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/85
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200850
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS TO
BRECKENRIDGE TO SW OF ABILENE.
RAINFALL COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT /CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH/ AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THIS LINE HAS SINCE EXPANDED AND HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS LINE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN UPPER SUPPORT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM PRECIP WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THIS
LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL PRECIP HAS FORMED IN
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...NEAR PARIS IN A REGION OF BROAD
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION OVER
NORTH TEXAS TO MOVE SE. THIS SCENARIO EQUALS CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR TODAY.
WE HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM DFW SHOWS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB IN THE 7 C/KM RANGE. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS RATHER THAN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO LINGER FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-35
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS STILL SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE AND WILL JUST HOLD ONTO THE 20/30 POPS.
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO KEEP THANKSGIVING SEASONABLE.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 61 49 62 46 67 / 70 50 10 0 5
WACO, TX 63 49 64 47 70 / 80 50 10 0 5
PARIS, TX 59 48 58 43 63 / 70 60 40 10 5
DENTON, TX 59 46 63 43 69 / 70 50 10 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 62 47 62 42 67 / 70 50 20 5 5
DALLAS, TX 62 50 64 48 67 / 80 60 10 5 5
TERRELL, TX 64 49 62 45 68 / 80 60 20 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 61 49 62 45 69 / 80 60 20 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 64 49 67 46 72 / 90 50 10 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
79/85
000
FXUS64 KLUB 200558
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1158 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...AS NORTHERLY
WINDS PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE SOUTH PLAINS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS HINT
AT SLIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER NIGHT TONIGHT AT BOTH
KLBB AND KCDS...WHICH COULD INDUCE FOG POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP FOG
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR ABOVE THE
LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A DRY COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY
CLEARED THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS AND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF
THE LUB CWA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AREAWIDE AND THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO INFILTRATE THE REGION. TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVE LEVELED OFF IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...TEMPERATURES
WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BUT HAVE LIKELY
NEARED THEIR PEAK NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS PASSED.
THIS EVENING...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND TAKE WITH IT ANY POTENTIAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION WILL AGAIN BE
HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL STAY TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT AND ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST AREAS. TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME
MIXING. IN ADDITION...SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM NEW MEXICO
MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. DUE TO
THESE FACTORS...THINK THAT ALTHOUGH LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
BELOW FREEZING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
TOMORROW...SURFACE RIDGING WITH A PREVALENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONABLE AVERAGES IN THE LOWER 60S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER WILL PUSH EAST TO CENTRAL TEXAS BY
00Z SAT WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUING AS SRN LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. SUBTLE RIDGING BUILDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM DIGS DOWN INTO THE ROCKY MTN STATES ON MONDAY MORNING.
ECM GUIDANCE DIGS THE SYSTEM DEEPER SOUTH BEFORE MATURING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THE ENTIRE EXTENDED APPEARS DRY AT
THIS TIME.
NEXT SFC FRONT IS DUE IN SUNDAY MORNING AND LOOKS TO MAKE IT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWFA BEFORE WASHING OUT AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
FRONTAL ZONE ON MONDAY. WHILE INITIALLY MORE OF A BACK DOOR SYSTEM
MONDAY...BETTER PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
YET ANOTHER FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLEST AIR REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS AS SFC GRADIENT INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TIGHTENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 29 59 28 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 31 60 31 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 32 61 32 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 32 61 33 69 35 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 34 61 35 68 34 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 33 61 35 70 35 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 33 62 34 69 34 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 37 62 36 65 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 38 63 37 67 36 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 41 62 37 69 38 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200549
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...
JUST SENT ANOTHER QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.
23/HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...
/06Z UPDATE/
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND ENCOUNTERS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD END JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY
MID-MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING REACHING KABI AROUND 04Z AND
KSJT AROUND 05Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL TERMINALS
FROM AROUND 08Z THRU AROUND 14Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS
10-15 KTS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH TSTMS BREAKING OUT DUE TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY GOING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AS WARM AS 80 AT KSJT.
ALSO...SURFACE BOUNDARY GETTING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
FROM KLBB TO KCDS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MID 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT...SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...SOME UPPER LEVEL UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. HAVE
LKLY POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWFA...WITH LOCAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER.
21
LONG TERM...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TODAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE BRINGING RAIN AND TSTORMS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPARTING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN STORE.
AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SENDS A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT. FOR THIS FORECAST I WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AS IT HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. THE WARMEST DAY APPREAS TO BE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH COOLER HIGHS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER
SOME COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...I HAVE RAISED TUES
NIGHT LOWS UP SOME...HOWEVER I WILL DEFINITELY TREND TOWARD THE
LOW END OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING DOWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
WOULD ARGUE FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 45 63 39 67 47 / 40 20 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 51 65 38 71 43 / 40 20 10 0 0
JUNCTION 55 66 39 70 42 / 70 60 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/HUBER
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200537 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1137 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE TRANS
PECOS REGION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
TRANS PECOS...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. WILL TEMPO -TSRA IN
THE KFST TAF. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200537
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1137 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AREAWIDE AT
LEAST THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF PREVAILING
CEILINGS AND NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST. MODERATE/STRONG ONSHORE
WIND TO PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY THEN DECREASE
BY THE AFTN HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA DEPICT THE STG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT TO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY. PROXIMITY SOUNDING TREND
CLEARLY INDICATES INCREASED MSTR DRG THE PAST 12-HOURS. NAM/GFS
PROGS PW VALUES TO BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 150-200% ABOVE NORMAL
PRIMARILY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CWFA DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-18Z FRI
PERIOD. SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) PROG A SFC LOW/TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVR THE REGION TNGT THEN MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY...WITH
LOW/TROUGH EITHER OFFSHORE BY 18Z FRI OR 00Z SAT. CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FFA STRONG BASED ON RECENT/CURRENT CONVECTION OWING IN
PART TO SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST. YET...CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT FFA. EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS/TEMPS/WIND FOR THE CWFA OVERNIGHT REASONABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL AS VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE HAS SURGED
BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MSAS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -5 TO -6 DEGREES OVER THE
COASTAL BEND...AND LAPS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE COASTAL BEND...WITH KCRP RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME STRONGER
CELLS FORMING TO THE SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY MOVING NORTHWARD.
STAGE IS SET FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...JUST WEST OF
EL PASO THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE RIO GRANDE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND FRIDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/SREF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 12Z FRIDAY
AS THE 90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND A
POLAR JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE LEADS TO LARGE OMEGA FIELD OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO
BEEVILLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES MAINLY OVER
THE MID COAST REGION.
ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WHILE MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY
LINGERING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING INHIBITS
MENTIONING SEVERE IN ZONE FORECAST...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THIS TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING BY THE MID COAST REGION...WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING. ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS PROG ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY...REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. (DISCARDED THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH AND NEVER BRINGS A
FRONT...THUS KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL WED NGT.) MODERATE
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH FORCING
ALONG THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH A CHANCE OF SH/TSRA. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND AWAITS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AND COLD SFC RIDGE DIVES INTO THE MID SOUTH. A SWLY FLOW
ALOFT (SUBTROPICAL JET) WILL KEEP M/C SKIES IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY PERIOD.
MARINE...CONTINUED THE SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. RAPIDLY
CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG OFFSHORE BEHIND THE LOW/COLD FRONT. EXTENSION OF THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 74 56 73 52 / 70 90 30 10 10
VICTORIA 65 68 51 69 47 / 80 100 50 10 10
LAREDO 67 74 55 78 53 / 60 70 10 10 10
ALICE 66 73 54 77 50 / 70 90 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 68 73 55 70 56 / 80 100 50 10 10
COTULLA 64 70 50 76 49 / 60 90 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 68 74 55 76 50 / 70 90 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 70 75 58 71 54 / 70 100 40 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...KLEBERG...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KEWX 200527 AAC
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1127 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A MIXED-BAG OF LOW MVFR AND IFR CIGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AT 25
MPH. EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNTIL 15-16Z WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST BY 20-22Z FRIDAY. A MODERATE
SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW AFTER THE
FROPA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING THE LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LOW FORMING
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN AN AREA OF BEST
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALSO STREAMING NORTHWARD TO SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AS WAA
INCREASES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT INTI FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAWS NEARER.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE
PWS ARE 160% ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY ALSO RESULT IN URBAN
STREET FLOODING ACROSS AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. WILL KEEP CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AT I-35 TERMINALS AS SHOWERS ADVANCE
FROM THE COAST. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AT I-35
TERMINALS...DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE FURTHER INTO LIFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT KDRT...MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT
06Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 15Z. A MODERATE SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON PORTENDS OF RAINS TO COME TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR SOUTH-
EAST CWA. THIS EVENING..SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CWA AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
ENTERS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND UPPER LEVELS DESTABILIZE.
MOISTURE POOLING BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS AND SLAMS INTO A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS..JUST EAST OF OUR SOUTH-
EAST CWA SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. AS A
RESULT..RAIN TOTALS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP
TOWARD DAWN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH OVERRUNNING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF OUR CWA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 6 AM TO 6
PM TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
BY AFTERNOON WITH RAINS ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. CLEARING
AND DRIER WITH MILD DAYTIME READINGS SATURDAY AREAWIDE
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. FAIR
AND A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY AFTER A COOL MORNING. GULF
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS RETURN MONDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL OVERRUN MOISTURE
ATOP A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO MAKE
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AT THIS
POINT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 49 68 47 / 90 90 50 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 63 48 66 41 / 90 90 50 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 68 48 70 45 / 90 90 40 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 57 63 47 63 45 / 90 80 40 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 67 46 76 49 / 50 70 10 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 57 65 48 65 46 / 90 80 50 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 70 47 71 44 / 80 80 20 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 63 49 69 47 / 90 90 40 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 64 51 64 45 / 90 100 60 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 68 49 71 50 / 90 80 30 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 70 50 71 46 / 90 90 30 - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA...LEE.
&&
$$
13/11/PM
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200521 AAC
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1121 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
FG DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
REGION...INCLUDING KGUY. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM OBS SUGGEST DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THUS THINK VFR CONDITIONS
ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY. AFTER 18Z...A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE
NE WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THOUGH SPEEDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE 6KTS OR LESS.
SJOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
UPDATE...
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WERE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING. THOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD AID IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO...THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LOW GIVEN THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH.
NUNEZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE REGION...INCLUDING KAMA AND KGUY.
KDHT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH BY 02Z. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST
AVIATION DISCUSSION...THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SOME LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT DEW POINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...THUS PRECLUDING ANY LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SJOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE GRIDS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TO SET UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY MADE IT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRST OF A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS ON TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
ANTICIPATED AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK ONE.
12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EUROPEAN ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT...
STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS KEEP UPPER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING. AN ADDITIONAL FRONT OR TWO WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
PANHANDLES WITH ONE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED
FORECAST...CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MEX GUIDANCE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/08
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200520
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1120 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX FROM THE SW. MOST OF
THE TSRA WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISO
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST FOR KLBX AND KGLS. HAVE MENTION OF
CB/VCTS IN TAFS FOR ALL HOUSTON TERMINALS SOUTHWARD. MAINLY JUST
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING 09Z. BULK
OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE AN END TO
PRECIP STARTING AFTER 00Z SAT. CIGS WILL DROP THROUGH MVFR LEVELS
TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. CIGS AFTER 18Z ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT SHOULD STILL SEE LOWER VSBY AND CIGS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL AGAIN BACK
FROM SE TO E TO NE DURING THE DAY AS A DEVELOPING SFC LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF. STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST BUT
STILL COULD SEE 10-15 KTS INLAND.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE REPLACED THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING WIND FORECASTS FOR THE COAST SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN
THE ALREADY ELEVATED START TO GET COASTAL FLOOD GOING FRIDAY. THE
00Z GFS IS EVEN MORE CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS NE 35-40KT
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER GALVESTON ISLAND AT 00Z SATURDAY. SHOULD THIS
COME TO PASS TIDE LEVELS WOULD ANOTHER FOOT HIGHER BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE ELEVATED WINDS. STILL
NOT THAT CONFIDENT THAT WARM FRONT WON`T GET FARTHER NORTH THAN
GFS IS PROGGING.
ALSO UPGRADED SCEC TO SCA FOR TONIGHT.
45/39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PLANNING AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SW HALF OF THE AREA. SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP NE OF CRP AND MOVE TOWARD THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA-WHARTON-
COLUMBUS AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT INTO THE PSX/BYY
AREA AND WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS HEADED INTO THAT AREA FOR
ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. HEAVY RAINS A DECENT
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AND THOSE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PLAN TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS IT HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS.
OTHER CONCERN IS THE ELEVATED TIDES...ALREADY HIT 3.37 FT AT GLS
PLEASURE PIER AND WITH A FLAT EBB TIDE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXPECT
TO SEE THESE LEVELS RISE. WILL BE WAITING TO SEE THE NAM/GFS WIND
FORECASTS BUT MAY BE RAISING A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING SHORTLY...IF
NOT WILL REISSUE THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT BEFORE 10 PM.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE MAINLY SPREAD ACROSS SE TX THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF MODERATE
TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FRI. THIS
SHOULD BE WHEN IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE MOST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CIGS AND DECREASING VISIBILITY. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z SAT. TAFS WILL CARRY CB FOR THE ISO
THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIAH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
BUT QG LIFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH FORCED CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SE
TO E AND THEN NE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SFC LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL BEND AND MOVE OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST FOR KLBX AND KGLS.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
BASE OF TROF APPROACHING EL PASO SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN/DIG SWD
INTO CNTL & SRN TX FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY KICK OUT OF SE TX
WITH A POSITIVE TILT SAT MORNING. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL INITIATE PRECIP OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON FRI. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND CRP
(DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE) AND TREK EWD. WAS HOPING THE MODELS
WOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING POSITION AND TIMING/MOVEMENT
WITH THE LOW AS IT`LL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON HOW INTENSE
WX WILL BECOME. INSTEAD...THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YDAY. ECMWF FURTHER S WITH THE LOW AND A BIT SLOWER...ETC
ETC ETC. FACT OF THE MATTER IS IT IS GOING TO BE WET...WITH LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME IMPRESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10
FOR WIDESPREAD 2-4" TOTALS WITH LOCALIZED 5-7" POSSIBLE. (MODELS
HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN SHOWING QUITE A BIT MORE ACCUMULATIONS THAN
THAT - UP TO A FOOT - BUT WITH THE MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT
SUSPECT THERE MIGHT BE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES INVOLVED.) ALSO
DECIDED TO THROW IN THE MENTION OF SEVERE RIGHT AT THE COAST BUT
THREAT WILL HINGE ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP. GFS AND NAM
BRING IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST WHERE I`D BE UNCOMFORTABLE NOT
MENTIONING SOMETHING WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
HELICITIES.
WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND BEGINS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY/NICE AS UPPER
FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. ANTICIPATE THE NEXT
FRONT TUE OR WED AS TROF MOVES DOWN THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH RIDGING FURTHER WEST. 47
MARINE...
E/SELY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTN AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP AOA THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING ITS
PATH...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WX
SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO US WILL AL-
LOW FOR A MUCH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG WINDS ALL AROUND FOR
OUR COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREAWIDE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIAL PROGS HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSS-
IBLE. WAVE HEIGHT FCSTS FOR FRI THRU SAT RANGE FROM 5-7 FT NEARSHORE
AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE. AND AS STATED MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY...THE FCST
WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENT-
UAL TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE TIDES...LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME AN ISSUE FRI/
FRI NIGHT AS MODERATE TO STRONG E/SE WINDS PREVAIL. THIS SHOULD HELP
RAISE TIDE LEVELS ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LID ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR NOW. 41
AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE GOING TAFS TO THE NEXT SET COMING OUT.
PCPN LOOKS TO START OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE MOISTURE OVER
THE GULF MOVES ONSHORE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY MVFR TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOD-
ERATE TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE SFC. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 63 49 64 44 / 70 80 60 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 66 51 62 45 / 40 80 60 50 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 69 56 63 54 / 50 90 70 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...WALLER...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200516
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1116 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
CIGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONVECTION NOW
BEGINNING TO FIRE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TAF SITES AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTION INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
9Z/3AM AND 15Z/9AM. CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DOWN TO IFR
ONCE PRECIP ARRIVES AND AIDES IN COMPLETE SATURATION. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND CIGS MAY LIFT
TO MVFR AS WELL.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE/OVER NORTH TEXAS BY SUNSET FRIDAY.
THE EASTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS SATURATED...WITH
CIGS LIKELY IFR FRIDAY EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH BY
MORNING.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE FOR CURRENT TRENDS...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASES INTO FAR
NW COUNTIES AS OF 8 PM. ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES STEEP ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED
ON LATEST SOUNDINGS...FELT A MORE INCREASED MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS AREA WAS WARRANTED. HAVE ADDED SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TOWARD WACO AND TEMPLE BEFORE 12Z/DAYBREAK. NO
INTENTION FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...AS ORGANIZING CONVECTION
ALONG THE TX COASTAL BEND SHOULD LEND TO A COMPLEX NEAR THE COAST WHICH
SHOULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE RICHER MOISTURE...BUT THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 21Z. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO...WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. RAIN...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND
THEN OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN
THE GRIDS..WORDED FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE
HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY BUT WE WILL SEE
SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES...AND MAYBE A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS AGREE THAT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL HANG ON
INTO SATURDAY AS WE SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...IT LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 55 62 49 61 44 / 70 70 30 20 0
WACO, TX 57 63 48 62 44 / 80 90 50 20 0
PARIS, TX 54 60 46 61 43 / 30 80 40 20 5
DENTON, TX 53 62 47 62 43 / 60 60 30 20 0
MCKINNEY, TX 54 62 48 61 41 / 50 70 30 20 0
DALLAS, TX 56 63 50 61 47 / 70 80 30 20 0
TERRELL, TX 54 63 48 61 44 / 60 80 40 30 0
CORSICANA, TX 55 59 47 61 44 / 70 90 50 30 0
TEMPLE, TX 57 62 48 64 45 / 80 90 60 20 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200458
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1058 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
/06Z UPDATE/
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND ENCOUNTERS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD END JUST AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEGRADE TO IFR AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY
MID-MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING REACHING KABI AROUND 04Z AND
KSJT AROUND 05Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL TERMINALS
FROM AROUND 08Z THRU AROUND 14Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS
10-15 KTS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH TSTMS BREAKING OUT DUE TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY GOING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AS WARM AS 80 AT KSJT.
ALSO...SURFACE BOUNDARY GETTING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
FROM KLBB TO KCDS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MID 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT...SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...SOME UPPER LEVEL UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. HAVE
LKLY POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWFA...WITH LOCAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER.
21
LONG TERM...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TODAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE BRINGING RAIN AND TSTORMS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPARTING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN STORE.
AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SENDS A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT. FOR THIS FORECAST I WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AS IT HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. THE WARMEST DAY APPREAS TO BE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH COOLER HIGHS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER
SOME COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...I HAVE RAISED TUES
NIGHT LOWS UP SOME...HOWEVER I WILL DEFINITELY TREND TOWARD THE
LOW END OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING DOWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
WOULD ARGUE FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 74 45 63 39 67 / 0 40 20 10 0
SAN ANGELO 76 51 65 38 71 / 10 40 20 10 0
JUNCTION 73 55 66 39 70 / 10 70 60 20 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/15
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200428
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1028 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE REPLACED THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING WIND FORECASTS FOR THE COAST SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN
THE ALREADY ELEVATED START TO GET COASTAL FLOOD GOING FRIDAY. THE
00Z GFS IS EVEN MORE CONCERNING AS IT MAINTAINS NE 35-40KT
SUSTAINED WINDS OVER GALVESTON ISLAND AT 00Z SATURDAY. SHOULD THIS
COME TO PASS TIDE LEVELS WOULD ANOTHER FOOT HIGHER BUT THE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE ELEVATED WINDS. STILL
NOT THAT CONFIDENT THAT WARM FRONT WON`T GET FARTHER NORTH THAN
GFS IS PROGGING.
ALSO UPGRADED SCEC TO SCA FOR TONIGHT.
45/39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
PLANNING AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SW HALF OF THE AREA. SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP NE OF CRP AND MOVE TOWARD THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA-WHARTON-
COLUMBUS AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT INTO THE PSX/BYY
AREA AND WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS HEADED INTO THAT AREA FOR
ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. HEAVY RAINS A DECENT
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AND THOSE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PLAN TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS IT HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS.
OTHER CONCERN IS THE ELEVATED TIDES...ALREADY HIT 3.37 FT AT GLS
PLEASURE PIER AND WITH A FLAT EBB TIDE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXPECT
TO SEE THESE LEVELS RISE. WILL BE WAITING TO SEE THE NAM/GFS WIND
FORECASTS BUT MAY BE RAISING A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING SHORTLY...IF
NOT WILL REISSUE THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT BEFORE 10 PM.
45
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE MAINLY SPREAD ACROSS SE TX THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF MODERATE
TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FRI. THIS
SHOULD BE WHEN IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE MOST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CIGS AND DECREASING VISIBILITY. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z SAT. TAFS WILL CARRY CB FOR THE ISO
THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIAH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
BUT QG LIFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH FORCED CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SE
TO E AND THEN NE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SFC LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL BEND AND MOVE OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST FOR KLBX AND KGLS.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
BASE OF TROF APPROACHING EL PASO SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN/DIG SWD
INTO CNTL & SRN TX FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY KICK OUT OF SE TX
WITH A POSITIVE TILT SAT MORNING. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL INITIATE PRECIP OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON FRI. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND CRP
(DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE) AND TREK EWD. WAS HOPING THE MODELS
WOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING POSITION AND TIMING/MOVEMENT
WITH THE LOW AS IT`LL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON HOW INTENSE
WX WILL BECOME. INSTEAD...THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YDAY. ECMWF FURTHER S WITH THE LOW AND A BIT SLOWER...ETC
ETC ETC. FACT OF THE MATTER IS IT IS GOING TO BE WET...WITH LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME IMPRESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10
FOR WIDESPREAD 2-4" TOTALS WITH LOCALIZED 5-7" POSSIBLE. (MODELS
HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN SHOWING QUITE A BIT MORE ACCUMULATIONS THAN
THAT - UP TO A FOOT - BUT WITH THE MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT
SUSPECT THERE MIGHT BE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES INVOLVED.) ALSO
DECIDED TO THROW IN THE MENTION OF SEVERE RIGHT AT THE COAST BUT
THREAT WILL HINGE ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP. GFS AND NAM
BRING IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST WHERE I`D BE UNCOMFORTABLE NOT
MENTIONING SOMETHING WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
HELICITIES.
WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND BEGINS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY/NICE AS UPPER
FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. ANTICIPATE THE NEXT
FRONT TUE OR WED AS TROF MOVES DOWN THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH RIDGING FURTHER WEST. 47
MARINE...
E/SELY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTN AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP AOA THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING ITS
PATH...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WX
SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO US WILL AL-
LOW FOR A MUCH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG WINDS ALL AROUND FOR
OUR COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREAWIDE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIAL PROGS HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSS-
IBLE. WAVE HEIGHT FCSTS FOR FRI THRU SAT RANGE FROM 5-7 FT NEARSHORE
AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE. AND AS STATED MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY...THE FCST
WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENT-
UAL TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE TIDES...LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME AN ISSUE FRI/
FRI NIGHT AS MODERATE TO STRONG E/SE WINDS PREVAIL. THIS SHOULD HELP
RAISE TIDE LEVELS ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LID ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR NOW. 41
AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE GOING TAFS TO THE NEXT SET COMING OUT.
PCPN LOOKS TO START OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE MOISTURE OVER
THE GULF MOVES ONSHORE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY MVFR TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOD-
ERATE TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE SFC. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 63 49 64 44 / 70 80 60 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 66 51 62 45 / 40 80 60 50 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 69 56 63 54 / 50 90 70 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...WALLER...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KSJT 200421
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1021 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS HAVE INDICATED COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS ARE INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. LIGHTNING DATA...DURING THE LAST
HOUR...SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS ARE REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR
AREA...MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF CROCKETT COUNTY AND NEAR SAN
ANTONIO. THUS...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY...FOR THOSE COUNTIES WHERE WE DID ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. ALSO...ADJUSTED THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
FOR THIS PERIOD TO ISOLATED. BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT...POPS AND WEATHER
LOOKED GOOD. IN ADDITION...ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS INTO THE CLOUDY
RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LATEST ZONE PRODUCT REFLECTS
THESE CHANGES.
23/HUBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING REACHING KABI AROUND 04Z AND
KSJT AROUND 05Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL TERMINALS
FROM AROUND 08Z THRU AROUND 14Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS
10-15 KTS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH TSTMS BREAKING OUT DUE TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY GOING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AS WARM AS 80 AT KSJT.
ALSO...SURFACE BOUNDARY GETTING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
FROM KLBB TO KCDS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MID 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT...SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...SOME UPPER LEVEL UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. HAVE
LKLY POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWFA...WITH LOCAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER.
21
LONG TERM...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TODAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE BRINGING RAIN AND TSTORMS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPARTING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN STORE.
AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SENDS A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT. FOR THIS FORECAST I WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AS IT HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. THE WARMEST DAY APPREAS TO BE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH COOLER HIGHS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER
SOME COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...I HAVE RAISED TUES
NIGHT LOWS UP SOME...HOWEVER I WILL DEFINITELY TREND TOWARD THE
LOW END OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING DOWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
WOULD ARGUE FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 45 63 39 67 47 / 40 20 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 51 65 38 71 43 / 40 20 10 0 0
JUNCTION 55 66 39 70 42 / 70 60 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/HUBER
000
FXUS64 KAMA 200349 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
949 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WERE RUNNING A BIT COOLER THIS EVENING. THOUGH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD AID IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO...THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LOW GIVEN THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH.
NUNEZ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE REGION...INCLUDING KAMA AND KGUY.
KDHT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH BY 02Z. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST
AVIATION DISCUSSION...THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SOME LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT DEW POINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...THUS PRECLUDING ANY LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SJOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE GRIDS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TO SET UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY MADE IT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRST OF A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS ON TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
ANTICIPATED AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK ONE.
12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EUROPEAN ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT...
STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS KEEP UPPER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING. AN ADDITIONAL FRONT OR TWO WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
PANHANDLES WITH ONE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED
FORECAST...CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MEX GUIDANCE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/08
000
FXUS64 KHGX 200323
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
923 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PLANNING AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SW HALF OF THE AREA. SHRA/TSRA HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP NE OF CRP AND MOVE TOWARD THE MATAGORDA BAY-EDNA-WHARTON-
COLUMBUS AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT INTO THE PSX/BYY
AREA AND WILL BE WATCHING THESE STORMS HEADED INTO THAT AREA FOR
ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. HEAVY RAINS A DECENT
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AND THOSE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. PLAN TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS IT HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS.
OTHER CONCERN IS THE ELEVATED TIDES...ALREADY HIT 3.37 FT AT GLS
PLEASURE PIER AND WITH A FLAT EBB TIDE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXPECT
TO SEE THESE LEVELS RISE. WILL BE WAITING TO SEE THE NAM/GFS WIND
FORECASTS BUT MAY BE RAISING A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING SHORTLY...IF
NOT WILL REISSUE THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT BEFORE 10 PM.
45
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE MAINLY SPREAD ACROSS SE TX THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF MODERATE
TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FRI. THIS
SHOULD BE WHEN IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE MOST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CIGS AND DECREASING VISIBILITY. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z SAT. TAFS WILL CARRY CB FOR THE ISO
THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIAH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
BUT QG LIFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH FORCED CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SE
TO E AND THEN NE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SFC LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL BEND AND MOVE OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST FOR KLBX AND KGLS.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
BASE OF TROF APPROACHING EL PASO SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN/DIG SWD
INTO CNTL & SRN TX FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY KICK OUT OF SE TX
WITH A POSITIVE TILT SAT MORNING. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL INITIATE PRECIP OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON FRI. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND CRP
(DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE) AND TREK EWD. WAS HOPING THE MODELS
WOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING POSITION AND TIMING/MOVEMENT
WITH THE LOW AS IT`LL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON HOW INTENSE
WX WILL BECOME. INSTEAD...THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YDAY. ECMWF FURTHER S WITH THE LOW AND A BIT SLOWER...ETC
ETC ETC. FACT OF THE MATTER IS IT IS GOING TO BE WET...WITH LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME IMPRESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10
FOR WIDESPREAD 2-4" TOTALS WITH LOCALIZED 5-7" POSSIBLE. (MODELS
HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN SHOWING QUITE A BIT MORE ACCUMULATIONS THAN
THAT - UP TO A FOOT - BUT WITH THE MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT
SUSPECT THERE MIGHT BE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES INVOLVED.) ALSO
DECIDED TO THROW IN THE MENTION OF SEVERE RIGHT AT THE COAST BUT
THREAT WILL HINGE ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP. GFS AND NAM
BRING IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST WHERE I`D BE UNCOMFORTABLE NOT
MENTIONING SOMETHING WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
HELICITIES.
WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND BEGINS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY/NICE AS UPPER
FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. ANTICIPATE THE NEXT
FRONT TUE OR WED AS TROF MOVES DOWN THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH RIDGING FURTHER WEST. 47
MARINE...
E/SELY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTN AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP AOA THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING ITS
PATH...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WX
SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO US WILL AL-
LOW FOR A MUCH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG WINDS ALL AROUND FOR
OUR COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREAWIDE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIAL PROGS HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSS-
IBLE. WAVE HEIGHT FCSTS FOR FRI THRU SAT RANGE FROM 5-7 FT NEARSHORE
AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE. AND AS STATED MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY...THE FCST
WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENT-
UAL TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE TIDES...LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME AN ISSUE FRI/
FRI NIGHT AS MODERATE TO STRONG E/SE WINDS PREVAIL. THIS SHOULD HELP
RAISE TIDE LEVELS ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LID ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR NOW. 41
AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE GOING TAFS TO THE NEXT SET COMING OUT.
PCPN LOOKS TO START OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE MOISTURE OVER
THE GULF MOVES ONSHORE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY MVFR TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOD-
ERATE TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE SFC. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 63 49 64 44 / 70 80 60 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 66 51 62 45 / 40 80 60 50 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 69 56 63 54 / 50 90 70 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...WALLER...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
000
FXUS64 KEWX 200301 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
901 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING THE LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LOW FORMING
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN AN AREA OF BEST
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ALSO STREAMING NORTHWARD TO SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AS WAA
INCREASES AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT INTI FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAWS NEARER.
SATELLITE DERIVED PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE
PWS ARE 160% ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY ALSO RESULT IN URBAN
STREET FLOODING ACROSS AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. WILL KEEP CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AT I-35 TERMINALS AS SHOWERS ADVANCE
FROM THE COAST. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AT I-35
TERMINALS...DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE FURTHER INTO LIFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT KDRT...MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT
06Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 15Z. A MODERATE SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON PORTENDS OF RAINS TO COME TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR SOUTH-
EAST CWA. THIS EVENING..SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CWA AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
ENTERS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND UPPER LEVELS DESTABILIZE.
MOISTURE POOLING BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS AND SLAMS INTO A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS..JUST EAST OF OUR SOUTH-
EAST CWA SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. AS A
RESULT..RAIN TOTALS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP
TOWARD DAWN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH OVERRUNNING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF OUR CWA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 6 AM TO 6
PM TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
BY AFTERNOON WITH RAINS ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. CLEARING
AND DRIER WITH MILD DAYTIME READINGS SATURDAY AREAWIDE
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. FAIR
AND A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY AFTER A COOL MORNING. GULF
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS RETURN MONDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL OVERRUN MOISTURE
ATOP A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO MAKE
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AT THIS
POINT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 49 68 47 / 90 90 50 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 63 48 66 41 / 90 90 50 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 68 48 70 45 / 90 90 40 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 57 63 47 63 45 / 90 80 40 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 67 46 76 49 / 50 70 10 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 57 65 48 65 46 / 90 80 50 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 70 47 71 44 / 80 80 20 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 63 49 69 47 / 90 90 40 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 64 51 64 45 / 90 100 60 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 68 49 71 50 / 90 80 30 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 70 50 71 46 / 90 90 30 - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA...LEE.
&&
$$
13/11
000
FXUS64 KCRP 200239
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
839 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA DEPICT THE STG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT TO THE CWFA OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY. PROXIMITY SOUNDING TREND
CLEARLY INDICATES INCREASED MSTR DRG THE PAST 12-HOURS. NAM/GFS
PROGS PW VALUES TO BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 150-200% ABOVE NORMAL
PRIMARILY OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CWFA DRG THE APPROXIMATELY 06-18Z FRI
PERIOD. SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
DETERMINISTIC SOLNS (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) PROG A SFC LOW/TROUGH TO
DEVELOP OVR THE REGION TNGT THEN MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY...WITH
LOW/TROUGH EITHER OFFSHORE BY 18Z FRI OR 00Z SAT. CONFIDENCE IN
CURRENT FFA STRONG BASED ON RECENT/CURRENT CONVECTION OWING IN
PART TO SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST. YET...CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT FFA. EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
POPS/TEMPS/WIND FOR THE CWFA OVERNIGHT REASONABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL AS VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE HAS SURGED
BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MSAS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -5 TO -6 DEGREES OVER THE
COASTAL BEND...AND LAPS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE COASTAL BEND...WITH KCRP RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME STRONGER
CELLS FORMING TO THE SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY MOVING NORTHWARD.
STAGE IS SET FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...JUST WEST OF
EL PASO THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE RIO GRANDE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND FRIDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/SREF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 12Z FRIDAY
AS THE 90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND A
POLAR JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE LEADS TO LARGE OMEGA FIELD OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO
BEEVILLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES MAINLY OVER
THE MID COAST REGION.
ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WHILE MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY
LINGERING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING INHIBITS
MENTIONING SEVERE IN ZONE FORECAST...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THIS TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING BY THE MID COAST REGION...WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING. ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS PROG ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY...REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. (DISCARDED THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH AND NEVER BRINGS A
FRONT...THUS KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL WED NGT.) MODERATE
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH FORCING
ALONG THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH A CHANCE OF SH/TSRA. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND AWAITS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AND COLD SFC RIDGE DIVES INTO THE MID SOUTH. A SWLY FLOW
ALOFT (SUBTROPICAL JET) WILL KEEP M/C SKIES IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY PERIOD.
MARINE...CONTINUED THE SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. RAPIDLY
CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG OFFSHORE BEHIND THE LOW/COLD FRONT. EXTENSION OF THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 74 56 73 52 / 90 90 30 10 10
VICTORIA 65 68 51 69 47 / 100 100 50 10 10
LAREDO 67 74 55 78 53 / 70 70 10 10 10
ALICE 66 73 54 77 50 / 90 90 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 68 73 55 70 56 / 90 100 50 10 10
COTULLA 64 70 50 76 49 / 70 90 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 68 74 55 76 50 / 90 90 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 70 75 58 71 54 / 90 100 40 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
000
FXUS64 KBRO 200217
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
817 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES. A NEAR PERFECT DAY ON
THURSDAY THEN TODAY GRAY AND RAINING...A GREAT DAY IF YOU ARE A
DUCK. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH A
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE GULF AND NORTHEAST
MEXICO. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO TO TRACK ACROSS
TEXAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBTROPICAL JET OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO TO TRANSLATE EAST KEEPING SOUTH TEXAS IN A FAVORED
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER FROM
LOOKING AT 00Z BRO SOUNDING A 700MB INVERSION MIGHT PUT A LID ON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST EARLY ON UNTIL THIS CAP CAN BE
BROKEN ONCE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY GETS CLOSER INCREASING THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND COOLING OFF THE MID LAYERS. BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH ISOLATED CHANCES ELSEWHERE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO SHOW
THE LESSOR CHANCE OF THUNDER WHILE POPS REMAIN HIGH. SPC STILL
ADVERTISING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVING A REMOTE CHANCE OF REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ALL MODELS SUGGESTING THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION NORTH OF THE OUR CWA WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE
IN THE EVENING UPDATE. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS WITHIN TOLERANCE.
WEEKEND LOOKS FINE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS. RECENT BUOY REPORTS INDICATE
THAT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ABOVE 20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASING ABOVE 5 FEET. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FROM BAFFIN BAY NORTHWARD WITH A SECOND AREA
OF DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY TRYING TO GET UNDERWAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AS SUB TROPICAL JET PARCEL DIVERGENCE...H5 TROUGH...AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALL INTERACT. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
SURFACE LOW EVENTUALLY KICKS EAST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SWITCHING THE
WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTM IT
APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEK/S WX SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS POTENT AS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY/S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN THREAT TO FLYING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE POSSIBILITIES OF CONVECTION. WAA CONTINUES THIS EVENING FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO H85. THREE HOUR THETA-E ADVECTION TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ALMOST NULL SUGGESTING THAT PEAK OF WAA MAY BE/SOON TO BE OCCURRING.
CONVECTION TRYING TO GET UNDERWAY OVER OLD MEXICO THIS EVENING AS
PARCEL DIVERGENCE WITH OVERHEAD JET INCREASES AND H5 TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH. SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF FRIDAY. CB POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING...FROM
BRO-HRL-MFE NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH GREATEST CHANCES OF A STRONG STORM ALONG A
LINE FROM BRO-HRL-VCT AND POINTS EASTWARD. BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SURFACE LOW KICKS EAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND
IT SWITCHING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 145 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009...SOUTHERLY
SFC FLOW PULLING AMPLE MOISTURE...WHILE SUBTROPICAL JET RUNNING
JUST TO THE SOUTH PROVIDING LIFT FROM THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT.
THESE ARE PROVIDING ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE COASTAL REGIONS TODAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY...WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. RAIN WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND THUNDER WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL PUT US ON THE EDGE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ADDING
EVEN MORE LIFT. THIS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED INCREASING INSTABILITY
ALONG THE COAST...WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE LACK OF A SPECIFIC FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL
HELP PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER FROM FORMING...BUT SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST NEAR
DEVELOPING LLVL JET. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...BRINGING AN END TO THE
RAIN AND BRINGING BACK DRIER AIR SFC AND ALOFT. MOST OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD REMAIN TRANQUIL AS SUCCESSIVE AREAS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
INTRUDE INTO NORTH AND EAST TEXAS...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING
ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE IN THE REGION TO KEEP TEMPS MODERATE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS...WITH ON EXPECTED TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT RESOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UP
IN THE AIR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 76 60 74 / 70 60 30 0
BROWNSVILLE 69 77 60 77 / 70 60 30 0
HARLINGEN 69 77 57 77 / 70 60 30 0
MCALLEN 69 77 57 80 / 70 60 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 66 77 56 81 / 60 60 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 76 58 71 / 70 60 30 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
59/69
000
FXUS64 KFWD 200217 AAB
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
817 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE FOR CURRENT TRENDS...AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASES INTO FAR
NW COUNTIES AS OF 8 PM. ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES STEEP ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF I-20 FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED
ON LATEST SOUNDINGS...FELT A MORE INCREASED MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THIS AREA WAS WARRANTED. HAVE ADDED SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TOWARD WACO AND TEMPLE BEFORE 12Z/DAYBREAK. NO
INTENTION FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...AS ORGANIZING CONVECTION
ALONG THE TX COASTAL BEND SHOULD LEND TO A COMPLEX NEAR THE COAST WHICH
SHOULD INTERCEPT SOME OF THE RICHER MOISTURE...BUT THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED.
05/
&&
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO INITIALLY
BE AROUND 3500 FT...BUT WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 3Z/9PM AT KACT AND
5Z/11PM FOR THE METROPLEX. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL ERODE CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 800 MB...WHICH
WILL ALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT TO TAP INTO WEAK/MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTION INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 10Z/4AM AND 15Z/9AM. CIGS WILL LIKELY CRASH TO IFR ONCE
PRECIP ARRIVES AND AIDES IN COMPLETE SATURATION. BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES BY MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BELIEVE
THAT THE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING...AND
THUS HAVE KEPT IFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK AROUND AND
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 21Z. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO...WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. RAIN...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND
THEN OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN
THE GRIDS..WORDED FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE
HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY BUT WE WILL SEE
SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES...AND MAYBE A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS AGREE THAT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL HANG ON
INTO SATURDAY AS WE SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...IT LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 62 49 61 44 / 70 70 30 20 0
WACO, TX 58 63 48 62 44 / 80 90 50 20 0
PARIS, TX 52 60 46 61 43 / 30 80 40 20 5
DENTON, TX 54 62 47 62 43 / 60 60 30 20 0
MCKINNEY, TX 54 62 48 61 41 / 50 70 30 20 0
DALLAS, TX 55 63 50 61 47 / 70 80 30 20 0
TERRELL, TX 54 63 48 61 44 / 60 80 40 30 0
CORSICANA, TX 56 59 47 61 44 / 70 90 50 30 0
TEMPLE, TX 59 62 48 64 45 / 80 90 60 20 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/05
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192342
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS AVIATION
FORECAST PERIOD. A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS PECOS REGION THIS
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE...
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
SURFACE MOISTURE...SO FOR THIS FORECAST WE HAVE ONLY APPENDED CB
IN THE TAF AT KFST AND KPEQ LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW ACRS NRN
MEXICO WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS
ACRS NM/W TX AND IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTER OF MID LEVEL LOW
IN NRN MEXICO. ASSOCD SFC LOW HAS FORMED ACRS THE S PLAINS AND
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH FRONT MOVING S TO NEAR
MAF BY 00Z/FRI. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE E INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DRIER SFC AIR WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT.
FARTHER S ACRS LOWER TRANS PECOS DWPNTS ARE ONLY IN THE M30S AND
WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE. HOWEVER MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AS SEEN IN
STEEP LR/S OF 7.5-8 C/KM AND LIFT SEEN IN 7H-5H OMEGA WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE HIGH BASED PRECIP. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL
SERVE TO MOISTEN COLUMN WITH ISOLD TO SCT POPS WARRANTED. THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES BTWN THE MODELS WITH NAM12 TRENDING DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. ATTP WILL ATTEMPT TO REFINE TONIGHT/S POP GRID BY
SHAVING SOME OFF THE NW EDGE WHERE DRIEST AIR WILL BE. SAID LR/S
AND CAPES OF 300-500 J/KG WILL FAVOR HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. LINGERING POPS ACRS SE PB AND
LOWER TRANS PECOS TIL AROUND 18Z. AFTER 18Z MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
WILL BE E AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THCK COOLING AND FRONT WILL MAKE
FOR A COOLER DAY FRIDAY...WARMER SAT WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND
THERMAL TROF ACRS THE FAR W. NEXT SHRTWV TROF IN THIS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKY MTNS LATE SAT/EARLY SUN WHICH
WILL DRAG LEE TROF OR WEAK PAC FRONT E ACRS CWFA WITH W WIND SHIFT
AND DRY AIR ON SUN. MEANWHILE 25-30KT AT 7H SAT/SUN WILL MAKE FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE GDP MTNS. ON MON NRN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL PASS ACRS NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH ASSOCD COLD FRONT
PASSING INTO W TX LATE MON SO A LITTLE COOLER TUE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WED AS NEXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF/S DROPS SE
INTO THE MIDWEST. VERY BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ADVERTISED TO
MOVE INTO MEXICO THUR WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE BIG
BEND/LOWER TRANS PECOS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KFWD 192337
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
537 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO INITIALLY
BE AROUND 3500 FT...BUT WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY 3Z/9PM AT KACT AND
5Z/11PM FOR THE METROPLEX. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL ERODE CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 800 MB...WHICH
WILL ALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT TO TAP INTO WEAK/MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LATE TONIGHT. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTION INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 10Z/4AM AND 15Z/9AM. CIGS WILL LIKELY CRASH TO IFR ONCE
PRECIP ARRIVES AND AIDES IN COMPLETE SATURATION. BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF TAF SITES BY MID-LATE
MORNING...BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. BELIEVE
THAT THE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING...AND
THUS HAVE KEPT IFR CIGS IN THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR BY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK AROUND AND
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY MORNING.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 21Z. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z
FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO...WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THE
SURFACE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. RAIN...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND
THEN OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN
THE GRIDS..WORDED FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HAVE
HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FRIDAY BUT WE WILL SEE
SOME LOCAL 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST
SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES...AND MAYBE A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS AGREE THAT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL HANG ON
INTO SATURDAY AS WE SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AFTERWARD...IT LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 54 62 49 61 44 / 70 70 30 20 0
WACO, TX 58 63 48 62 44 / 80 90 50 20 0
PARIS, TX 52 60 46 61 43 / 30 80 40 20 5
DENTON, TX 54 62 47 62 43 / 60 60 30 20 0
MCKINNEY, TX 54 62 48 61 41 / 50 70 30 20 0
DALLAS, TX 55 63 50 61 47 / 70 80 30 20 0
TERRELL, TX 54 63 48 61 44 / 60 80 40 30 0
CORSICANA, TX 56 59 47 61 44 / 70 90 50 30 0
TEMPLE, TX 59 62 48 64 45 / 80 90 60 20 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHGX 192336
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
536 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE MAINLY SPREAD ACROSS SE TX THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF MODERATE
TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z FRI. THIS
SHOULD BE WHEN IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE MOST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CIGS AND DECREASING VISIBILITY. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AND
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 00Z SAT. TAFS WILL CARRY CB FOR THE ISO
THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS SOUTH OF KIAH. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED
BUT QG LIFT WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH FORCED CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SE
TO E AND THEN NE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SFC LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COASTAL BEND AND MOVE OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST FOR KLBX AND KGLS.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
BASE OF TROF APPROACHING EL PASO SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN/DIG SWD
INTO CNTL & SRN TX FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY KICK OUT OF SE TX
WITH A POSITIVE TILT SAT MORNING. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL INITIATE PRECIP OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREADING INTO SE TX AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON FRI. COASTAL
LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND CRP
(DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE) AND TREK EWD. WAS HOPING THE MODELS
WOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING POSITION AND TIMING/MOVEMENT
WITH THE LOW AS IT`LL MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE ON HOW INTENSE
WX WILL BECOME. INSTEAD...THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS TODAY THAN THIS
TIME YDAY. ECMWF FURTHER S WITH THE LOW AND A BIT SLOWER...ETC
ETC ETC. FACT OF THE MATTER IS IT IS GOING TO BE WET...WITH LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKELY SEEING SOME IMPRESSIVE ACCUMULATIONS.
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10
FOR WIDESPREAD 2-4" TOTALS WITH LOCALIZED 5-7" POSSIBLE. (MODELS
HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN SHOWING QUITE A BIT MORE ACCUMULATIONS THAN
THAT - UP TO A FOOT - BUT WITH THE MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT
SUSPECT THERE MIGHT BE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES INVOLVED.) ALSO
DECIDED TO THROW IN THE MENTION OF SEVERE RIGHT AT THE COAST BUT
THREAT WILL HINGE ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP. GFS AND NAM
BRING IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST WHERE I`D BE UNCOMFORTABLE NOT
MENTIONING SOMETHING WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
HELICITIES.
WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BEFORE A
GRADUAL CLEARING TREND BEGINS AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY/NICE AS UPPER
FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A MOSTLY ZONAL PATTERN. ANTICIPATE THE NEXT
FRONT TUE OR WED AS TROF MOVES DOWN THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH RIDGING FURTHER WEST. 47
MARINE...
E/SELY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTN AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP AOA THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING ITS
PATH...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS WX
SYSTEM. AT ANY RATE THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM SYSTEM TO US WILL AL-
LOW FOR A MUCH TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG WINDS ALL AROUND FOR
OUR COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT. AS SUCH HAVE GONE WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREAWIDE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIAL PROGS HAVE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSS-
IBLE. WAVE HEIGHT FCSTS FOR FRI THRU SAT RANGE FROM 5-7 FT NEARSHORE
AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE. AND AS STATED MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY...THE FCST
WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENT-
UAL TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.
AS FOR THE TIDES...LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME AN ISSUE FRI/
FRI NIGHT AS MODERATE TO STRONG E/SE WINDS PREVAIL. THIS SHOULD HELP
RAISE TIDE LEVELS ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE ON FRI/FRI NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A
LID ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR NOW. 41
AVIATION...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE GOING TAFS TO THE NEXT SET COMING OUT.
PCPN LOOKS TO START OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AS THE MOISTURE OVER
THE GULF MOVES ONSHORE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY MVFR TONIGHT GIVEN THE MOD-
ERATE TO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE SFC. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 60 63 49 64 44 / 70 80 60 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 66 51 62 45 / 40 80 60 50 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 64 69 56 63 54 / 50 90 70 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...WALLER...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5
AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...39
000
FXUS64 KEWX 192334 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
534 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE DEVELOPING AT I-35 TERMINALS AS SHOWERS ADVANCE
FROM THE COAST. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE AT I-35
TERMINALS...DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE FURTHER INTO LIFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AT KDRT...MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT
06Z...WITH IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 15Z. A MODERATE SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON PORTENDS OF RAINS TO COME TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR SOUTH-
EAST CWA. THIS EVENING..SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE CWA AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
ENTERS SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND UPPER LEVELS DESTABILIZE.
MOISTURE POOLING BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS AND SLAMS INTO A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS..JUST EAST OF OUR SOUTH-
EAST CWA SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. AS A
RESULT..RAIN TOTALS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO PICK UP
TOWARD DAWN ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH OVERRUNNING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF OUR CWA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 6 AM TO 6
PM TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
BY AFTERNOON WITH RAINS ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. CLEARING
AND DRIER WITH MILD DAYTIME READINGS SATURDAY AREAWIDE
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. FAIR
AND A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY AFTER A COOL MORNING. GULF
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS RETURN MONDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS UPPER LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL OVERRUN MOISTURE
ATOP A SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TO MAKE
THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AT THIS
POINT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 57 64 49 68 47 / 90 90 50 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 60 63 48 66 41 / 90 90 50 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 58 68 48 70 45 / 90 90 40 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 57 63 47 63 45 / 90 80 40 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 59 67 46 76 49 / 50 70 10 - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 57 65 48 65 46 / 90 80 50 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 62 70 47 71 44 / 80 80 20 - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 63 49 69 47 / 90 90 40 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 62 64 51 64 45 / 90 100 60 20 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 60 68 49 71 50 / 90 80 30 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 61 70 50 71 46 / 90 90 30 - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA...LEE.
&&
$$
13/11/PM
000
FXUS64 KAMA 192328 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
528 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE REGION...INCLUDING KAMA AND KGUY.
KDHT SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH BY 02Z. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST
AVIATION DISCUSSION...THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SOME LOW CLOUDS
OR FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT DEW POINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL...THUS PRECLUDING ANY LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SJOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ONCE AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE GRIDS THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TO SET UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY MADE IT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRST OF A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACH FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS ON TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
ANTICIPATED AS FRONT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK ONE.
12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EUROPEAN ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT...
STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...BOTH
SOLUTIONS KEEP UPPER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING. AN ADDITIONAL FRONT OR TWO WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
PANHANDLES WITH ONE ON MONDAY AND PERHAPS ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL PASSAGES IN THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED
FORECAST...CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLIGHTLY UNDERCUTTING MEX GUIDANCE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.
TAB
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/08
000
FXUS64 KCRP 192326 AAA
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
526 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL AS VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE HAS SURGED
BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MSAS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -5 TO -6 DEGREES OVER THE
COASTAL BEND...AND LAPS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE COASTAL BEND...WITH KCRP RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME STRONGER
CELLS FORMING TO THE SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY MOVING NORTHWARD.
STAGE IS SET FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...JUST WEST OF
EL PASO THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE RIO GRANDE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND FRIDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/SREF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 12Z FRIDAY
AS THE 90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND A
POLAR JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE LEADS TO LARGE OMEGA FIELD OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO
BEEVILLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES MAINLY OVER
THE MID COAST REGION.
ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WHILE MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY
LINGERING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING INHIBITS
MENTIONING SEVERE IN ZONE FORECAST...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THIS TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING BY THE MID COAST REGION...WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING. ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS PROG ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY...REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. (DISCARDED THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH AND NEVER BRINGS A
FRONT...THUS KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL WED NGT.) MODERATE
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH FORCING
ALONG THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH A CHANCE OF SH/TSRA. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND AWAITS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AND COLD SFC RIDGE DIVES INTO THE MID SOUTH. A SWLY FLOW
ALOFT (SUBTROPICAL JET) WILL KEEP M/C SKIES IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY PERIOD.
MARINE...CONTINUED THE SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. RAPIDLY
CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG OFFSHORE BEHIND THE LOW/COLD FRONT. EXTENSION OF THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MENTIONED THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 74 56 73 52 / 90 90 30 10 10
VICTORIA 65 68 51 69 47 / 100 100 50 10 10
LAREDO 67 74 55 78 53 / 70 70 10 10 10
ALICE 66 73 54 77 50 / 90 90 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 68 73 55 70 56 / 90 100 50 10 10
COTULLA 64 70 50 76 49 / 70 90 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 68 74 55 76 50 / 90 90 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 70 75 58 71 54 / 90 100 40 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
WC/87...SHORT TERM
JAR/19...LONG TERM/AVIATION
000
FXUS64 KLUB 192320
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SURFACE
WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS HINT
AT SLIGHT MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER NIGHT TONIGHT AT BOTH
KLBB AND KCDS...WHICH COULD INDUCE FOG POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP FOG
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME AS MUCH DRIER AIR ABOVE THE
LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A DRY COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY
CLEARED THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS AND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF
THE LUB CWA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION AREAWIDE AND THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO INFILTRATE THE REGION. TEMPERATURE READINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVE LEVELED OFF IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...TEMPERATURES
WERE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BUT HAVE LIKELY
NEARED THEIR PEAK NOW THAT THE FRONT HAS PASSED.
THIS EVENING...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND TAKE WITH IT ANY POTENTIAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AS APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION WILL AGAIN BE
HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL STAY TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT AND ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST AREAS. TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMOTE AT LEAST SOME
MIXING. IN ADDITION...SCT/BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM NEW MEXICO
MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. DUE TO
THESE FACTORS...THINK THAT ALTHOUGH LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
BELOW FREEZING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
TOMORROW...SURFACE RIDGING WITH A PREVALENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONABLE AVERAGES IN THE LOWER 60S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE OVER THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER WILL PUSH EAST TO CENTRAL TEXAS BY
00Z SAT WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUING AS SRN LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. SUBTLE RIDGING BUILDS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
NEXT SYSTEM DIGS DOWN INTO THE ROCKY MTN STATES ON MONDAY MORNING.
ECM GUIDANCE DIGS THE SYSTEM DEEPER SOUTH BEFORE MATURING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THE ENTIRE EXTENDED APPEARS DRY AT
THIS TIME.
NEXT SFC FRONT IS DUE IN SUNDAY MORNING AND LOOKS TO MAKE IT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CWFA BEFORE WASHING OUT AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
FRONTAL ZONE ON MONDAY. WHILE INITIALLY MORE OF A BACK DOOR SYSTEM
MONDAY...BETTER PUSH OF COOLER AIR COMES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
YET ANOTHER FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLEST AIR REMAINS WELL
NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS AS SFC GRADIENT INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TIGHTENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 29 59 28 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 31 60 31 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 32 61 32 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 32 61 33 69 35 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 34 61 35 68 34 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 33 61 35 70 35 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 33 62 34 69 34 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 37 62 36 65 40 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 38 63 37 67 36 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 41 62 37 69 38 / 10 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KSJT 192313
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
513 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009
.AVIATION...
/00Z UPDATE/
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING REACHING KABI AROUND 04Z AND
KSJT AROUND 05Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL TERMINALS
FROM AROUND 08Z THRU AROUND 14Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS
10-15 KTS. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009/
SHORT TERM...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH TSTMS BREAKING OUT DUE TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY GOING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AS WARM AS 80 AT KSJT.
ALSO...SURFACE BOUNDARY GETTING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
FROM KLBB TO KCDS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MID 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT...SHWRS AND TSTMS
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAINLY AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...SOME UPPER LEVEL UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB WHICH WILL RESULT IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND. HAVE
LKLY POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWFA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE
OVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CWFA...WITH LOCAL 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHS
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER.
21
LONG TERM...
THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TODAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE BRINGING RAIN AND TSTORMS TO THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPARTING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH A NICE WEEKEND IN STORE.
AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SENDS A DECENT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX
EARLY TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONT. FOR THIS FORECAST I WILL FOLLOW THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AS IT HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. THE WARMEST DAY APPREAS TO BE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH COOLER HIGHS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. AFTER
SOME COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...I HAVE RAISED TUES
NIGHT LOWS UP SOME...HOWEVER I WILL DEFINITELY TREND TOWARD THE
LOW END OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THE ECMWF SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING DOWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
WOULD ARGUE FOR COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 45 63 39 67 47 / 40 20 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 51 65 38 71 43 / 40 20 10 0 0
JUNCTION 55 66 39 70 42 / 70 60 20 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/15
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