000
FXUS61 KRNK 230426
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1126 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE MID APPALACHIANS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG
WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHORT WAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WAS ENTERING SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY AT 01Z. A BROAD BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WAD JUST
ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z.
THE RUC...HRRR...LOCAL WRF...AND SREF ALL HAVE RAINFALL BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO
ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL CURRENTLY APPROACH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE
LATEST TIMING OF THE MODELS.

THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY STILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS LOWER AND RAIN
BEGINS.

00Z SOUNDINGS AT GSO AND RNK SHOW DEEPER EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS BELOW 700 MB AND A SATURATED AIRMASS AT MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AT THE BCB PROFILER HAS BEEN RISING
SHARPLY SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES
AT 01Z. WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA CLOUDY AND WITH
CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A SURFACE WEDGE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED. ALSO AIDING IN THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL
BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND MAINLY DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...PARTICULARLY NORTHEASTERN SLOPES. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...PARENT SYSTEM PULLS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH WITH
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS KEEPING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA. DO NOT THINK RAINFALL...IF ANY...WILL MEASURE BUT THERE COULD
BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING.
ALSO CHARACTERIZE DRIZZLE SIMILAR TO RAIN...CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE...TO KEEP TEXT PRODUCTS SIMPLE. DOES LOOK LIKE DRIZZLE WILL
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS TYPICAL WITH ANY SATURATED WEDGE...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FILL BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND COULD TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE MID WEST. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG LIKELY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ON EASTERN SLOPES POSSIBLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD CLOUDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS TEND TO ERODE WEDGE TO QUICK. AS
THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR BACK TO AND/OR
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WITH A WARM START. THE AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. GUIDANCE IS
IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS LOW IN TURN IS
PROGGED TO HELP PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
FRIDAY. THEN THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND BY SATURDAY...WITH A HEALTHY NORTHWEST FLOW
KICKING IN OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR WEATHER IS A THANKSGIVING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN
EARLY IN THE MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HEADING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NOTABLY COLDER AIR WILL RACE INTO THE AREA ON
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING AS
FAR EAST AS THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE SNOW
REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ON FRIDAY...COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME...BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE LATE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIMILAR...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...BUT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA.

ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN SO LOOK FOR SLOWER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...EVEN LESS MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND 30 OR IN
THE LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AIRMASS WAS BECOMING SATURATED THIS EVENING. BAND OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WAS SOUTHWEST OF
A LWB TO LYH LINE AT 04Z. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE ONGOING
AT ALL TAF SITES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS..FROM THE
SURFACE UP TO NEAR 700 MB WHICH WILL HELP LOWER CEILINGS TO IFR
AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED DOWN
THE APPALACHIANS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST
ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO VEER AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST...GRADUALLY
ERODING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS. MANY OF THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY HAVE PROLONGED LIFR CONDITIONS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLUEFIELD ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING UNDER A SOUTHEAST WIND. THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE APPALACHIANS MAY BE THE ONLY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR
CONDITION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOULD SEE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS BACK INTO VFR
BY WEDNESDAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE
AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THOSE AREAS MAINLY IN VFR RANGE
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS/WERT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 230253
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST
NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG ~1035MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA....WITH SFC RIDGING EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. TO THE SOUTH...SFC LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BE NOTED ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ALOFT...UPR LVL LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT....AS THE GULF COAST SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OVERNIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING GOOD SLUG OF ISENTROPIC MOISTURE
PROVIDING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HVY RAINFALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. NEAR TERM MODELS ALL AGREE IN SLOWLY
PUSHING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ON THE HEELS OF STRONG WAA
(SW FLOW) ALOFT ON THE ORDER OF 25-35KT AT H850-700.

WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVC FOR ALL
ZONES WITH LLVL ENE FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WL GO
AHEAD WITH CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MOST NC ZONES WITH PCPN LIKELY
COMING WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. FARTHER NORTH...WL STILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE MID/LLVLS. TRENDED UPWARDS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL
ZONES...BUT USED LGT RA/DZ WORDING OVER FAR NORTHERN TIER WITH THE
THOUGHT THAT PCPN SHIELD SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THESE
AREAS THROUGH 11Z TO PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
VALUES ALONG/NORTH OF A KLKU-KWAL LINE. FOR TEMPS...STAYED CLOSE
TO INHERITED LOW TEMPS...WHICH ARE JUST ABOVE LAMP MOS VALUES...IN
THE MID 40S NW TO LWR 50S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES MOVES UP THE ERN SEABOARD MON THRU TUE. MOIST NE ONSHR FLO
AHEAD OF THE LO WILL HELP TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
DAY...W/A DECENT RAINFALL EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA MON INTO ERLY
MON EVENG (ESPLY LWR MD). QPF AMTS SHUD BE BETWEEN .25 INCH TO .50
INCH MOST AREAS...WITH HIER TOTALS POSSIBLE OVR THE SE. MAX TEMPS
ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S.

LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY UP THE CST LATER MON NGT THRU TUE
WITH WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGON TUE AND TUE NGT. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT A MSTLY CLDY OR CLDY SKY TO DOMINATE OUR WX DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS FCST AREA REMAINS IN AN IN-SITU WEDGE SCENARIO WITH LO
LVLS MOIST ARND 850-900MB AND BELOW. VRY LGT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
STILL POSSIBLE ESPLY TUE MORNG...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ALL AREAS TUE NGT. LOWS MON NGT IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS
ON TUE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

GENERALLY MSTLY CLDY STILL ON WED WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE
AFTN/EVENG...AS A WEAK COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WED NGT/THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF NOW BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID ATLC...WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW
MOVING UP THE SE COAST. THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NNE AND OFF
THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST THU NGT/FRI. CARRIED 20-40% CHANCES FOR
SHWRS THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT (HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST).

AFTER THAT...GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPR
LOW...NOW CLOSING IT OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION FRI/FRI NGT.
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF STILL
KEEPING THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER VA (RATHER THAN THE
CAROLINAS). GIVEN THIS TRACK...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST A BIT CLOUDIER
AND ADDED 20-30% CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRI AFTN/EVENING FOR CNTRL AND
NRN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE SOUTH DRY. ADDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD CVR SAT (PTLY SUNNY) BUT OVERALL A COOL DRY PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL W/ WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW. HIGHS FRI/SAT...ARND 50 FAR NORTH
TO MID 50S SOUTH. DRY W/ A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY AS RIDGING
SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE E COAST FROM THE SW...HIGHS MID/UPR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCTD SHWRS CURRENTLY MVG NE
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. ADDED TEMPO GROUP AT RIC FOR THIS REASON.
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF RAIN HAS MVD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF
AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY IN TN. THIS LOW WL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN MVG INTO ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT SBY BY 09Z. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE EARLY MON MRNG
ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF HEAVIER PCPN.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES OUT MON EVNG BUT MOIST NRLY FLOW WL
LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA INTO TUE. CONDS WL IMPROVE BY
WED AS HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN AND LWR CIGS LOOKS TO BE THU AS A FNTL
SYSTEM MVS ACRS THE AREA. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OVER THE CSTL WATERS ARE RISING FAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE
BUMPED SEAS UP A FEW FEET...TO 5-7 FT S AND 6-8 FT NORTH. SCA HEADLINES
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS WILL BE THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST...AND A 1035+ MB HIGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST/OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES W/ THE POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAN THEY HAD SHOWN YSDY. WILL KEEP SCA HEADLINES FOR MON (NO
GALES)...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25
KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE COAST ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FCST SEAS ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH
(UP TO 8-9 FT OFFSHORE NRN CSTL WATERS). WINDS TURN TO THE NNW AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER MON NGT AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT SCA HEADLINES STAY UP THROUGH THE 4TH PERIOD/TUE AFTN
FOR THE CSTL WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL/SEAS 5 FT+. ANOTHER SFC
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A STRG WNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC REMAINS DOWN ATTM. TECHNICIANS WILL
RETURN TO THE SITE MONDAY. A RETURN TO SERVICE TIME ISN`T YET
KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KLWX 230216 AAB
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
OVERALL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION STILL ON TRACK FROM PREV FCST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCRS TNGT...WITH LOW-LVL CLD CVR XPCD TO SPREAD
ACRS FCST AREA LATE. RAIN WILL CONT TO SPREAD NWD AS MID-LVL
SHRTWV TROF APRCHS...BUT WILL ONLY ENCROACH UPON SRN ZONES THRU
TNGT. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF PCPN...AND THIS
TREND WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE EVE UPDATE. HAVE TRIMMED NRN EDGE OF
POPS DOWNWARD THRU TNGT. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE ACTUAL STORM SYSTEM REMAINING WELL TO
THE SOUTH...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...RAIN AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAIN WILL SPREAD NWD THRU FCST AREA DURG MID-LATE MRNG.
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK REASONABLE STILL FOR TMW AFTN AND WERE
RETAINED...ALTHO IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLGTLY
HIGHER WITH EWD EXTENT CLOSER TO XPCD PATH OF SHRTWV TROF. PREV
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHEARS APART AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS OUR REGION. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LACK
OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE RAINFALL...RANGING FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...TO NEAR 50 IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY PCPN LINGERING MON NGT WUD BE AS A RSLT OF THE DEF AXIS ACRS
CWFA. HWVR...LOPRES RATHER WEAK...AND FAR OFFSHORE...SO DONT THINK
THAT PCPN WUD BE PLENTIFUL. WUD BE MORE CONCERNED ABT DZ...BUT SFC
WNDS NLY NOT NE/ELY.

HIPRES BRIEFLY BLDS TUE-TUE NGT. BUT IT SHUD BE A DIRTY RDG AS AMPLE
LLVL MSTR STILL LINGERS. SUNSHN SHUD BE LMTD...ASSUMING IT CAN BRK
THRU MARINE STRATUS. BASED ON TKNS OF MARINE DECK ON MDL
TIME-HGTS...THAT/LL BE A BIG ASSUMPTION. SUSPECT LLVL CLDS WL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DZ TO DVLP TUE NGT...SPCLY SINCE SFC HIGH WEDGED A LA
CAD AND H9-8 FLOW BCMG SLY.

CMPLX SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR MID WK...AS S/WV ENERGY DROPS INTO
CNTRL PLAINS...CUTTING OFF H5 LOW BY TUE. ADDTL VORTS CARVE OUT A
2ND LOW...WHICH WL DEEPEN LOW OVR GRTLKS BY THU. LCLLY...CWFA WL
RECEIVE ISENT LIFT...THEN GLANCING BLOW OF PVA WED. THUS...CLDS
GOING NOWHERE...AND CHC SHRA RETURNS. SOME MIXING CUD PUNCH HOLES IN
THE CLD DECK BHD VORT LT WED-WED NGT.

TEMPS FAIRLY TEMPERATE THRU THE PD. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN MOS TEMPS
TMRW NGT-TUE...AND A SLGTLY LRGR SPREAD TUE NGT. CONSIDERING
CLDS...STAYED AWAY FM BIG DIURNAL SWINGS-- WARM SIDE OF MEAN FOR
MIN-T BUT COOLER SIDE FOR MAXT.

XTNDD...DP H5 TROF AXIS/CUTOFF LOW TO PIVOT ACRS CWFA THU-FRI. THIS
CYCLE...GDNC - SPCLY GFS - NOW TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO DVLPG CSTL
SYSTM LT THU NGT-ELY FRI MRNG. BUT EVEN THE MORE STBL ECMWF TRENDING
TWD GFS. EITHER WAY THE END RSLT WL BE SIMLR...FVRBL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN...AND SIGNALS THAT HIER ELEVS CUD RECEIVE SNW. WL INCR POPS
THU-THU NGT...AND STICK W/ MTN SNW/MIX ONCE CAA UPON US THU PM. NW
FLOW PTTN THRU SAT. WL ENHANCE UPSPL PCPN THRU THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS AOB 1.0 KFT XPCD TNGT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCRS ACRS RGN.
VSBYS ALSO XPCD TO DROP TO IFR-MVFR THRESHOLDS AS FOG DVLPS THIS
EVE. ONSET OF DRZL XPCD LATE TNGT...WITH RAIN MOVG NWD INTO SRN
PORTIONS OF FCST AREA BY 08-10 UTC. DRZL CONTS ACRS NRN TERMINALS
THRU MRNG UNTIL RAIN ARRIVES AT ALL TERMINALS DURG LATE MRNG.
RESTRICTIONS XPCD TO CONT THRU AT LEAST MON EVE.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL THRU MUCH OF WK AS UNSTTLD CONDS ABOUND. IF
THERE WERE A BRK IT WUD COME TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT LOW CLDS/DZ LKLY TO
RTN TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE SHARPENING SLGTLY EARLIER THAN
DEPICTED IN PREV GRIDS...MAINLY LWR PORTIONS OF MD CHSPK BAY AND
LWR TIDAL POTOMAC. HAVE ADJUSTED START TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADZY TO
PRESENT TIME FOR THESE ZONES..WHERE 17-20 KT GUSTS COMMON AND XPCD
TO PERSIST. RMNDR OF ADZY WILL BGN AT MIDNIGHT AS PREVLY ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LOW WILL BRING SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC OVERNIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY...MORE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE CAPPED WIND GUSTS MONDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT WITH FASTER WINDS LESS THAN A
THOUSAND FEET FROM THE SURFACE...ANY MIXING WOULD BRING STRONGER
WIND GUSTS LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.

G20KT LKLY TO CONT INTO TMRW NGT DUE TO NLY FLOW...SPCLY FOR MAIN
CHANNEL BAY BLO POOLES ISL AND FOR LWR PTMC. WL INCL BIG INLETS BUT
NOT BALT HARBOR/PAX RIVER. HIPRES RDG SHUD DECR WNDS TUE-WED...ALTHO
LOW CLDS SHUD BE PLENTIFUL AND RA A PSBLTY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH...AN ONSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND TIDAL ANOMALIES RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOUT ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. LATEST CBOFS AND EXTRATROPICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS FOR WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO ON THE
LOWER SIDE DUE TO THE LUNAR CYCLE APPROACHING THE FIRST QUARTER
PHASE. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO REASONS...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ531>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR
PREV DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/LASORSA/HTS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 230139
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
839 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE MID APPALACHIANS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG
WITH RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHORT WAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WAS ENTERING SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY AT 01Z. A BROAD BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WAD JUST
ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z.
THE RUC...HRRR...LOCAL WRF...AND SREF ALL HAVE RAINFALL BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO
ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL CURRENTLY APPROACH SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE
LATEST TIMING OF THE MODELS.

THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY STILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S BEFORE RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THE CLOUDS LOWER AND RAIN
BEGINS.

00Z SOUNDINGS AT GSO AND RNK SHOW DEEPER EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS BELOW 700 MB AND A SATURATED AIRMASS AT MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AT THE BCB PROFILER HAS BEEN RISING
SHARPLY SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WAS GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES
AT 01Z. WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA CLOUDY AND WITH
CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS...EXPECT NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A SURFACE WEDGE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED. ALSO AIDING IN THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL
BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND MAINLY DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...PARTICULARLY NORTHEASTERN SLOPES. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...PARENT SYSTEM PULLS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH WITH
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS KEEPING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA. DO NOT THINK RAINFALL...IF ANY...WILL MEASURE BUT THERE COULD
BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING.
ALSO CHARACTERIZE DRIZZLE SIMILAR TO RAIN...CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE...TO KEEP TEXT PRODUCTS SIMPLE. DOES LOOK LIKE DRIZZLE WILL
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS TYPICAL WITH ANY SATURATED WEDGE...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FILL BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND COULD TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE MID WEST. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG LIKELY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ON EASTERN SLOPES POSSIBLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD CLOUDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS TEND TO ERODE WEDGE TO QUICK. AS
THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR BACK TO AND/OR
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WITH A WARM START. THE AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. GUIDANCE IS
IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS LOW IN TURN IS
PROGGED TO HELP PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
FRIDAY. THEN THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND BY SATURDAY...WITH A HEALTHY NORTHWEST FLOW
KICKING IN OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR WEATHER IS A THANKSGIVING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN
EARLY IN THE MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HEADING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NOTABLY COLDER AIR WILL RACE INTO THE AREA ON
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING AS
FAR EAST AS THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE SNOW
REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ON FRIDAY...COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME...BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE LATE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIMILAR...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...BUT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA.

ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN SO LOOK FOR SLOWER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...EVEN LESS MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND 30 OR IN
THE LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO OVERRUN THE REGION...BUT MOST OF IT
IS STILL BE BEING USED TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...EXPECT TO SEE A TREND TOWARDS LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THIS BY 06Z. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE THIS BY 09Z...WITH A GENERAL TREND THROUGH
MORNING OF CONDITIONS WORSENING TO IFR. IFR CIGS LIGHT RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH VSBYS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

COOL WEDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
WEST ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO VEER AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST...GRADUALLY
ERODING AND DISPLACING TENACIOUS MOIST COOL.

EXPECT TO SEE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES REMAINING IN LIFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF RISING OF CEILING INTO MVFR RANGE IS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLUEFIELD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING
UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...BUT THIS NOT AT ALL CERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AND MAY BE THE ONLY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR CONDITION
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS INDICATED ABOVE...SHOULD SEE UNIVERSAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK INTO VFR OR UNRESTRICTED RANGE BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME
MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THOSE AREAS MAINLY IN VFR RANGE
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS/WERT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/WERT

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222346
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM SW TO NE TNGT IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES
MOVNG FM THE FL PANHANDLE NE TO JUST OFF THE SE CST. IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LO LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (SW-NE) OVR THE
REGION...WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOT MOVNG INTO THE SRN/SW CNTIES
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENG. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACRS THE REGION FM
SW TO NE OVRNGT INTO MON MORNG. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES MOVES UP THE ERN SEABOARD MON THRU TUE. MOIST NE ONSHR FLO
AHEAD OF THE LO WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A DECENT RAINFALL ACRS THE
AREA DURING MON INTO ERLY MON EVENG (ESPLY LWR MD). QPF AMTS SHUD
BE BETWEEN .25 INCH TO .50 INCH MOST AREAS...WITH HIER TOTALS
POSSIBLE OVR THE SE. MAX TEMPS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR
60S.

LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY UP THE CST LATER MON NGT THRU TUE
WITH WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGON TUE AND TUE NGT. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT A MSTLY CLDY OR CLDY SKY TO DOMINATE OUR WX DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS FCST AREA REMAINS IN AN IN-SITU WEDGE SCENARIO WITH LO
LVLS MOIST ARND 850-900MB AND BELOW. VRY LGT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
STILL POSSIBLE ESPLY TUE MORNG...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ALL AREAS TUE NGT. LOWS MON NGT IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS
ON TUE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

GENERALLY MSTLY CLDY STILL ON WED WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE
AFTN/EVENG...AS A WEAK COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WED NGT/THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF NOW BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID ATLC...WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW
MOVING UP THE SE COAST. THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NNE AND OFF
THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST THU NGT/FRI. CARRIED 20-40% CHANCES FOR
SHWRS THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT (HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST).

AFTER THAT...GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPR
LOW...NOW CLOSING IT OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION FRI/FRI NGT.
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF STILL
KEEPING THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER VA (RATHER THAN THE
CAROLINAS). GIVEN THIS TRACK...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST A BIT CLOUDIER
AND ADDED 20-30% CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRI AFTN/EVENING FOR CNTRL AND
NRN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE SOUTH DRY. ADDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD CVR SAT (PTLY SUNNY) BUT OVERALL A COOL DRY PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL W/ WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW. HIGHS FRI/SAT...ARND 50 FAR NORTH
TO MID 50S SOUTH. DRY W/ A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY AS RIDGING
SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE E COAST FROM THE SW...HIGHS MID/UPR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SCTD SHWRS CURRENTLY MVG NE
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA. ADDED TEMPO GROUP AT RIC FOR THIS REASON.
OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF RAIN HAS MVD INTO THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF
AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY IN TN. THIS LOW WL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN MVG INTO ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT SBY BY 09Z. PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE EARLY MON MRNG
ASSOCIATED WITH PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF HEAVIER PCPN.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES OUT MON EVNG BUT MOIST NRLY FLOW WL
LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA INTO TUE. CONDS WL IMPROVE BY
WED AS HI PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN AND LWR CIGS LOOKS TO BE THU AS A FNTL
SYSTEM MVS ACRS THE AREA. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OVER THE CSTL WATERS ARE RISING FAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE
BUMPED SEAS UP A FEW FEET...TO 5-7 FT S AND 6-8 FT NORTH. SCA HEADLINES
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS WILL BE THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST...AND A 1035+ MB HIGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST/OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES W/ THE POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAN THEY HAD SHOWN YSDY. WILL KEEP SCA HEADLINES FOR MON (NO
GALES)...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25
KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE COAST ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FCST SEAS ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH
(UP TO 8-9 FT OFFSHORE NRN CSTL WATERS). WINDS TURN TO THE NNW AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER MON NGT AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT SCA HEADLINES STAY UP THROUGH THE 4TH PERIOD/TUE AFTN
FOR THE CSTL WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL/SEAS 5 FT+. ANOTHER SFC
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A STRG WNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 222344
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
644 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE MID APPALACHIANS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG
WITH A THREAT OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. MID
LEVEL REFLECTION WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY INLAND OF SURFACE TRACK...PLACING
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA IN GOOD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH
INCREASINGLY MOIST 850-600 MILLIBAR LEVEL. COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND UPSLOPING
RESULTS IN BROAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE MAIN AREA OF LIFT BEGINS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF
BLACKSBURG AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO INITIALLY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...COOL
WEDGE WILL BE REINFORCED AND THEN PERSIST WITH NORTHEASTERLY-
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

ALTHOUGH HIGHEST QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SUFFICIENT UPGLIDE THROUGH
DEEP MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST FACING FLANKS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPING OVER EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WARRANTED SLIGHT LOWER POPS
DURING THE PERIOD.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A STRONG WEDGE SITUATION...ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND VERY FLAT/NEGLIGIBLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLDER MAVMOS AND
EXISTING SET OF GRIDS PREFERRED OVER THE SOMEWHAT MILDER METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A SURFACE WEDGE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED. ALSO AIDING IN THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL
BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND MAINLY DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...PARTICULARLY NORTHEASTERN SLOPES. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...PARENT SYSTEM PULLS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH WITH
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS KEEPING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA. DO NOT THINK RAINFALL...IF ANY...WILL MEASURE BUT THERE COULD
BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING.
ALSO CHARACTERIZE DRIZZLE SIMILAR TO RAIN...CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE...TO KEEP TEXT PRODUCTS SIMPLE. DOES LOOK LIKE DRIZZLE WILL
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS TYPICAL WITH ANY SATURATED WEDGE...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FILL BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND COULD TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE MID WEST. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG LIKELY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ON EASTERN SLOPES POSSIBLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD CLOUDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS TEND TO ERODE WEDGE TO QUICK. AS
THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR BACK TO AND/OR
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WITH A WARM START. THE AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. GUIDANCE IS
IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS LOW IN TURN IS
PROGGED TO HELP PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
FRIDAY. THEN THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND BY SATURDAY...WITH A HEALTHY NORTHWEST FLOW
KICKING IN OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR WEATHER IS A THANKSGIVING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN
EARLY IN THE MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HEADING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NOTABLY COLDER AIR WILL RACE INTO THE AREA ON
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING AS
FAR EAST AS THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE SNOW
REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ON FRIDAY...COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME...BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE LATE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIMILAR...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...BUT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA.

ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN SO LOOK FOR SLOWER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...EVEN LESS MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND 30 OR IN
THE LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO OVERRUN THE REGION...BUT MOST OF IT
IS STILL BE BEING USED TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSESS...EXPECT TO SEE A TREND TOWARDS LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN. MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE THIS BY 06Z. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE THIS BY 09Z...WITH A GENERAL TREND THROUGH
MORNING OF CONDITIONS WORSENING TO IFR. IFR CIGS LIGHT RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH VSBYS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

COOL WEDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
WEST ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO VEER AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST...GRADUALLY
ERODING AND DISPLACING TENACIOUS MOIST COOL.

EXPECT TO SEE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES REMAINING IN LIFR
CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF RISING OF CEILING INTO MVFR RANGE IS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLUEFIELD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING
UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...BUT THIS NOT AT ALL CERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AND MAY BE THE ONLY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR CONDITION
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS INDICATED ABOVE...SHOULD SEE UNIVERSAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK INTO VFR OR UNRESTRICTED RANGE BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME
MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THOSE AREAS MAINLY IN VFR RANGE
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS/WERT

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222259
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
559 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM SW TO NE TNGT IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES
MOVNG FM THE FL PANHANDLE NE TO JUST OFF THE SE CST. IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LO LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (SW-NE) OVR THE
REGION...WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOT MOVNG INTO THE SRN/SW CNTIES
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENG. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACRS THE REGION FM
SW TO NE OVRNGT INTO MON MORNG. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES MOVES UP THE ERN SEABOARD MON THRU TUE. MOIST NE ONSHR FLO
AHEAD OF THE LO WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A DECENT RAINFALL ACRS THE
AREA DURING MON INTO ERLY MON EVENG (ESPLY LWR MD). QPF AMTS SHUD
BE BETWEEN .25 INCH TO .50 INCH MOST AREAS...WITH HIER TOTALS
POSSIBLE OVR THE SE. MAX TEMPS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR
60S.

LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY UP THE CST LATER MON NGT THRU TUE
WITH WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGON TUE AND TUE NGT. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT A MSTLY CLDY OR CLDY SKY TO DOMINATE OUR WX DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS FCST AREA REMAINS IN AN IN-SITU WEDGE SCENARIO WITH LO
LVLS MOIST ARND 850-900MB AND BELOW. VRY LGT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
STILL POSSIBLE ESPLY TUE MORNG...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ALL AREAS TUE NGT. LOWS MON NGT IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS
ON TUE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

GENERALLY MSTLY CLDY STILL ON WED WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE
AFTN/EVENG...AS A WEAK COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WED NGT/THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF NOW BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID ATLC...WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW
MOVING UP THE SE COAST. THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NNE AND OFF
THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST THU NGT/FRI. CARRIED 20-40% CHANCES FOR
SHWRS THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT (HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST).

AFTER THAT...GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPR
LOW...NOW CLOSING IT OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION FRI/FRI NGT.
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF STILL
KEEPING THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER VA (RATHER THAN THE
CAROLINAS). GIVEN THIS TRACK...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST A BIT CLOUDIER
AND ADDED 20-30% CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRI AFTN/EVENING FOR CNTRL AND
NRN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE SOUTH DRY. ADDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD CVR SAT (PTLY SUNNY) BUT OVERALL A COOL DRY PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL W/ WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW. HIGHS FRI/SAT...ARND 50 FAR NORTH
TO MID 50S SOUTH. DRY W/ A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY AS RIDGING
SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE E COAST FROM THE SW...HIGHS MID/UPR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS AND STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE ONSHORE NE FLOW...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES.

RAIN OVER GEORGIA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS ALABAMA WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LAV USED TO FORECAST THE
START TIMES OF THE RAIN. CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH LGT
RAIN/BR AND TO IFR A FEW HOURS LATER IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH MET
AND MAV.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES OUT MON NIGHT BUT MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA INTO TUE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE
BY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC FOR PCPN
AND LOWER CEILINGS THU. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OVER THE CSTL WATERS ARE RISING FAST THIS EVENING AND HAVE
BUMPED SEAS UP A FEW FEET...TO 5-7 FT S AND 6-8 FT NORTH. SCA HEADLINES
ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS WILL BE THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST...AND A 1035+ MB HIGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST/OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES W/ THE POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAN THEY HAD SHOWN YSDY. WILL KEEP SCA HEADLINES FOR MON (NO
GALES)...BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE AND ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25
KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE COAST ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FCST SEAS ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH
(UP TO 8-9 FT OFFSHORE NRN CSTL WATERS). WINDS TURN TO THE NNW AND
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER MON NGT AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT SCA HEADLINES STAY UP THROUGH THE 4TH PERIOD/TUE AFTN
FOR THE CSTL WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL/SEAS 5 FT+. ANOTHER SFC
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A STRG WNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...NWS AKQ

000
FXUS61 KLWX 222216 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
516 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE ACTUAL STORM SYSTEM REMAINING WELL TO
THE SOUTH...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...RAIN AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHEARS APART AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OUR
REGION. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO THE RAINFALL...RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...TO NEAR 50 IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY PCPN LINGERING MON NGT WUD BE AS A RSLT OF THE DEF AXIS ACRS
CWFA. HWVR...LOPRES RATHER WEAK...AND FAR OFFSHORE...SO DONT THINK
THAT PCPN WUD BE PLENTIFUL. WUD BE MORE CONCERNED ABT DZ...BUT SFC
WNDS NLY NOT NE/ELY.

HIPRES BRIEFLY BLDS TUE-TUE NGT. BUT IT SHUD BE A DIRTY RDG AS AMPLE
LLVL MSTR STILL LINGERS. SUNSHN SHUD BE LMTD...ASSUMING IT CAN BRK
THRU MARINE STRATUS. BASED ON TKNS OF MARINE DECK ON MDL
TIME-HGTS...THAT/LL BE A BIG ASSUMPTION. SUSPECT LLVL CLDS WL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DZ TO DVLP TUE NGT...SPCLY SINCE SFC HIGH WEDGED A LA
CAD AND H9-8 FLOW BCMG SLY.

CMPLX SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR MID WK...AS S/WV ENERGY DROPS INTO
CNTRL PLAINS...CUTTING OFF H5 LOW BY TUE. ADDTL VORTS CARVE OUT A
2ND LOW...WHICH WL DEEPEN LOW OVR GRTLKS BY THU. LCLLY...CWFA WL
RECEIVE ISENT LIFT...THEN GLANCING BLOW OF PVA WED. THUS...CLDS
GOING NOWHERE...AND CHC SHRA RETURNS. SOME MIXING CUD PUNCH HOLES IN
THE CLD DECK BHD VORT LT WED-WED NGT.

TEMPS FAIRLY TEMPERATE THRU THE PD. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN MOS TEMPS
TMRW NGT-TUE...AND A SLGTLY LRGR SPREAD TUE NGT. CONSIDERING
CLDS...STAYED AWAY FM BIG DIURNAL SWINGS-- WARM SIDE OF MEAN FOR
MIN-T BUT COOLER SIDE FOR MAXT.

XTNDD...DP H5 TROF AXIS/CUTOFF LOW TO PIVOT ACRS CWFA THU-FRI. THIS
CYCLE...GDNC - SPCLY GFS - NOW TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO DVLPG CSTL
SYSTM LT THU NGT-ELY FRI MRNG. BUT EVEN THE MORE STBL ECMWF TRENDING
TWD GFS. EITHER WAY THE END RSLT WL BE SIMLR...FVRBL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN...AND SIGNALS THAT HIER ELEVS CUD RECEIVE SNW. WL INCR POPS
THU-THU NGT...AND STICK W/ MTN SNW/MIX ONCE CAA UPON US THU PM. NW
FLOW PTTN THRU SAT. WL ENHANCE UPSPL PCPN THRU THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS MONDAY
MORNING WHILE A NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER IN PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY. VSBYS WILL DROP
MAINLY TO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...BUT IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
THE RAIN BEGINS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL THRU MUCH OF WK AS UNSTTLD CONDS ABOUND. IF
THERE WERE A BRK IT WUD COME TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT LOW CLDS/DZ LKLY TO
RTN TUE NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE SHARPENING SLGTLY EARLIER THAN
DEPICTED IN PREV GRIDS...MAINLY LWR PORTIONS OF MD CHSPK BAY AND
LWR TIDAL POTOMAC. HAVE ADJUSTED START TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADZY TO
PRESENT TIME FOR THESE ZONES..WHERE 17-20 KT GUSTS COMMON AND XPCD
TO PERSIST. RMNDR OF ADZY WILL BGN AT MIDNIGHT AS PREVLY ISSUED.
PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LOW WILL BRING SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC OVERNIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY...MORE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE CAPPED WIND GUSTS MONDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS
ACROSS THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT WITH FASTER WINDS LESS THAN A
THOUSAND FEET FROM THE SURFACE...ANY MIXING WOULD BRING STRONGER
WIND GUSTS LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.

G20KT LKLY TO CONT INTO TMRW NGT DUE TO NLY FLOW...SPCLY FOR MAIN
CHANNEL BAY BLO POOLES ISL AND FOR LWR PTMC. WL INCL BIG INLETS BUT
NOT BALT HARBOR/PAX RIVER. HIPRES RDG SHUD DECR WNDS TUE-WED...ALTHO
LOW CLDS SHUD BE PLENTIFUL AND RA A PSBLTY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH...AN ONSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND TIDAL ANOMALIES RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOUT ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. LATEST CBOFS AND EXTRATROPICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS FOR WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO ON THE
LOWER SIDE DUE TO THE LUNAR CYCLE APPROACHING THE FIRST QUARTER
PHASE. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO REASONS...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ531>533-539>541.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-538-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR
PREV DISCUSSION...LASORSA/HTS

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 222138
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
438 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE LOW WILL MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM SW TO NE TNGT IN ADVANCE OF LO PRES
MOVNG FM THE FL PANHANDLE NE TO JUST OFF THE SE CST. IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LO LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (SW-NE) OVR THE
REGION...WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL NOT MOVNG INTO THE SRN/SW CNTIES
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENG. RAIN WILL THEN SPREAD ACRS THE REGION FM
SW TO NE OVRNGT INTO MON MORNG. MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LO PRES MOVES UP THE ERN SEABOARD MON THRU TUE. MOIST NE ONSHR FLO
AHEAD OF THE LO WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A DECENT RAINFALL ACRS THE
AREA DURING MON INTO ERLY MON EVENG (ESPLY LWR MD). QPF AMTS SHUD
BE BETWEEN .25 INCH TO .50 INCH MOST AREAS...WITH HIER TOTALS
POSSIBLE OVR THE SE. MAX TEMPS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR
60S.

LO PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY UP THE CST LATER MON NGT THRU TUE
WITH WEAK SFC HI PRES OVR THE REGON TUE AND TUE NGT. HOWEVER...STILL
EXPECT A MSTLY CLDY OR CLDY SKY TO DOMINATE OUR WX DURING THIS
PERIOD...AS FCST AREA REMAINS IN AN IN-SITU WEDGE SCENARIO WITH LO
LVLS MOIST ARND 850-900MB AND BELOW. VRY LGT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
STILL POSSIBLE ESPLY TUE MORNG...AND PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AGAIN
ALL AREAS TUE NGT. LOWS MON NGT IN THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S. HIGHS
ON TUE IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

GENERALLY MSTLY CLDY STILL ON WED WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHRAS IN THE
AFTN/EVENG...AS A WEAK COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WED NGT/THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF NOW BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY WEAK
SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID ATLC...WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW
MOVING UP THE SE COAST. THE LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT TRACKS NNE AND OFF
THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST THU NGT/FRI. CARRIED 20-40% CHANCES FOR
SHWRS THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT (HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST).

AFTER THAT...GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPR
LOW...NOW CLOSING IT OFF IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION FRI/FRI NGT.
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/ECMWF STILL
KEEPING THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER VA (RATHER THAN THE
CAROLINAS). GIVEN THIS TRACK...HAVE TRENDED THE FCST A BIT CLOUDIER
AND ADDED 20-30% CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRI AFTN/EVENING FOR CNTRL AND
NRN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP THE SOUTH DRY. ADDED A BIT MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD CVR SAT (PTLY SUNNY) BUT OVERALL A COOL DRY PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL W/ WESTERLY LOW LVL FLOW. HIGHS FRI/SAT...ARND 50 FAR NORTH
TO MID 50S SOUTH. DRY W/ A SLIGHT WARMING TREND SUNDAY AS RIDGING
SLOWLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE E COAST FROM THE SW...HIGHS MID/UPR 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS AND STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE ONSHORE NE FLOW...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES.

RAIN OVER GEORGIA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS ALABAMA WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LAV USED TO FORECAST THE
START TIMES OF THE RAIN. CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH LGT
RAIN/BR AND TO IFR A FEW HOURS LATER IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH MET
AND MAV.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES OUT MON NIGHT BUT MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA INTO TUE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE
BY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC FOR PCPN
AND LOWER CEILINGS THU. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OVER THE CSTL WATERS HAVE COME UP TO 4-5 FT THIS AFTN...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT...SCA HEADLINES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL EXCEPT THE BAY N OF NEW PT COMFORT (COMING UP THERE LATER
THIS EVENING). MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WILL BE THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST...AND A 1035+ MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST/OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES W/ THE
POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN THEY HAD SHOWN YSDY.
WILL KEEP SCA HEADLINES FOR MON (NO GALES). STILL...DO ANTICIPATE
20-25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE COAST ALONG WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FCST SEAS ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN
WAVEWATCH (UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE). WINDS TURN TO THE NNW AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATER MON NGT AS THE LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT SCA HEADLINES STAY UP THROUGH THE 4TH PERIOD/TUE AFTN
FOR THE CSTL WATERS DUE TO RESIDUAL SWELL/SEAS 5 FT+. ANOTHER SFC
LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A STRG WNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL FLOODING NOT LOOKING TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN AS ASTRONOMICAL
VALUES ARE FAIRLY LOW. ANOMALIES SHOULD BUILD TO 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL BY LATER MON/MON NGT (WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS).

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KLWX 222000
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS
TRACKING TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

A LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE INCREASE COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE ACTUAL STORM SYSTEM REMAINING WELL TO
THE SOUTH...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...RAIN AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHEARS APART AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OUR
REGION. A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO THE RAINFALL...RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY...TO NEAR 50 IN
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ACROSS LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANY PCPN LINGERING MON NGT WUD BE AS A RSLT OF THE DEF AXIS ACRS
CWFA. HWVR...LOPRES RATHER WEAK...AND FAR OFFSHORE...SO DONT THINK
THAT PCPN WUD BE PLENTIFUL. WUD BE MORE CONCERNED ABT DZ...BUT SFC
WNDS NLY NOT NE/ELY.

HIPRES BRIEFLY BLDS TUE-TUE NGT. BUT IT SHUD BE A DIRTY RDG AS AMPLE
LLVL MSTR STILL LINGERS. SUNSHN SHUD BE LMTD...ASSUMING IT CAN BRK
THRU MARINE STRATUS. BASED ON TKNS OF MARINE DECK ON MDL
TIME-HGTS...THAT/LL BE A BIG ASSUMPTION. SUSPECT LLVL CLDS WL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DZ TO DVLP TUE NGT...SPCLY SINCE SFC HIGH WEDGED A LA
CAD AND H9-8 FLOW BCMG SLY.

CMPLX SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR MID WK...AS S/WV ENERGY DROPS INTO
CNTRL PLAINS...CUTTING OFF H5 LOW BY TUE. ADDTL VORTS CARVE OUT A
2ND LOW...WHICH WL DEEPEN LOW OVR GRTLKS BY THU. LCLLY...CWFA WL
RECEIVE ISENT LIFT...THEN GLANCING BLOW OF PVA WED. THUS...CLDS
GOING NOWHERE...AND CHC SHRA RETURNS. SOME MIXING CUD PUNCH HOLES IN
THE CLD DECK BHD VORT LT WED-WED NGT.

TEMPS FAIRLY TEMPERATE THRU THE PD. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN MOS TEMPS
TMRW NGT-TUE...AND A SLGTLY LRGR SPREAD TUE NGT. CONSIDERING
CLDS...STAYED AWAY FM BIG DIURNAL SWINGS-- WARM SIDE OF MEAN FOR
MIN-T BUT COOLER SIDE FOR MAXT.

XTNDD...DP H5 TROF AXIS/CUTOFF LOW TO PIVOT ACRS CWFA THU-FRI. THIS
CYCLE...GDNC - SPCLY GFS - NOW TRANSFERRING ENERGY TO DVLPG CSTL
SYSTM LT THU NGT-ELY FRI MRNG. BUT EVEN THE MORE STBL ECMWF TRENDING
TWD GFS. EITHER WAY THE END RSLT WL BE SIMLR...FVRBL SUPPORT FOR
PCPN...AND SIGNALS THAT HIER ELEVS CUD RECEIVE SNW. WL INCR POPS
THU-THU NGT...AND STICK W/ MTN SNW/MIX ONCE CAA UPON US THU PM. NW
FLOW PTTN THRU SAT. WL ENHANCE UPSPL PCPN THRU THAT TIME.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS MONDAY
MORNING WHILE A NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER IN PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC. CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY. VSBYS WILL DROP
MAINLY TO MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...BUT IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
THE RAIN BEGINS.

FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL THRU MUCH OF WK AS UNSTTLD CONDS ABOUND. IF
THERE WERE A BRK IT WUD COME TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT LOW CLDS/DZ LKLY TO
RTN TUE NGT.
&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LOW WILL BRING SCA WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC OVERNIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY...MORE SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HAVE CAPPED WIND GUSTS MONDAY AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS
THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC...BUT WITH FASTER WINDS LESS THAN A THOUSAND
FEET FROM THE SURFACE...ANY MIXING WOULD BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
LATER MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY
LATER SHIFTS.

G20KT LKLY TO CONT INTO TMRW NGT DUE TO NLY FLOW...SPCLY FOR MAIN
CHANNEL BAY BLO POOLES ISL AND FOR LWR PTMC. WL INCL BIG INLETS BUT
NOT BALT HARBOR/PAX RIVER. HIPRES RDG SHUD DECR WNDS TUE-WED...ALTHO
LOW CLDS SHUD BE PLENTIFUL AND RA A PSBLTY BY WED.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH...AN ONSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND TIDAL ANOMALIES RANGE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOUT ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...THIS WILL CAUSE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIME. LATEST CBOFS AND EXTRATROPICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. THE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS FOR WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO ON THE
LOWER SIDE DUE TO THE LUNAR CYCLE APPROACHING THE FIRST QUARTER
PHASE. HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THESE TWO REASONS...BUT THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530-538-542.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LASORSA
NEAR TERM...LASORSA
SHORT TERM...LASORSA
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...LASORSA/HTS
MARINE...LASORSA/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LASORSA

000
FXUS61 KRNK 221905
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
205 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE MID APPALACHIANS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG
WITH A THREAT OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. MID
LEVEL REFLECTION WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY INLAND OF SURFACE TRACK...PLACING
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA IN GOOD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH
INCREASINGLY MOIST 850-600 MILLIBAR LEVEL. COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND UPSLOPING
RESULTS IN BROAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE MAIN AREA OF LIFT BEGINS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF
BLACKSBURG AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO INITIALLY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...COOL
WEDGE WILL BE REINFORCED AND THEN PERSIST WITH NORTHEASTERLY-
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

ALTHOUGH HIGHEST QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SUFFICIENT UPGLIDE THROUGH
DEEP MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST FACING FLANKS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPING OVER EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WARRANTED SLIGHT LOWER POPS
DURING THE PERIOD.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A STRONG WEDGE SITUATION...ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND VERY FLAT/NEGLIGIBLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLDER MAVMOS AND
EXISTING SET OF GRIDS PREFERRED OVER THE SOMEWHAT MILDER METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A SURFACE WEDGE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED. ALSO AIDING IN THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL
BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND MAINLY DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...PARTICULARLY NORTHEASTERN SLOPES. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...PARENT SYSTEM PULLS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH WITH
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS KEEPING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA. DO NOT THINK RAINFALL...IF ANY...WILL MEASURE BUT THERE COULD
BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING.
ALSO CHARACTERIZE DRIZZLE SIMILAR TO RAIN...CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE...TO KEEP TEXT PRODUCTS SIMPLE. DOES LOOK LIKE DRIZZLE WILL
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS TYPICAL WITH ANY SATURATED WEDGE...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FILL BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND COULD TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE MID WEST. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG LIKELY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ON EASTERN SLOPES POSSIBLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD CLOUDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS TEND TO ERODE WEDGE TO QUICK. AS
THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR BACK TO AND/OR
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WITH A WARM START. THE AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. GUIDANCE IS
IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS LOW IN TURN IS
PROGGED TO HELP PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
FRIDAY. THEN THE PHASED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND BY SATURDAY...WITH A HEALTHY NORTHWEST FLOW
KICKING IN OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR OUR WEATHER IS A THANKSGIVING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN
EARLY IN THE MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HEADING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NOTABLY COLDER AIR WILL RACE INTO THE AREA ON
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING AS
FAR EAST AS THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE SNOW
REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. ON FRIDAY...COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME...BUT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH A TREND TOWARDS DECREASING COVERAGE LATE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIMILAR...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...BUT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...NEIGHBORING
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA.

ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN SO LOOK FOR SLOWER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AS COMPARED TO
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...EVEN LESS MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST WITH THE COLDEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE COMMON IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AROUND 30 OR IN
THE LOWER 30S.

ON SUNDAY...WINDS TAKE ON A BIT MORE OF A SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS INTO MVFR RANGE
BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND DOWN FURTHER INTO IFR RANGE BY LATER
TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS NEAR
SURFACE WILL ENHANCE COOL WEDGE/INVERSION OVER AREA...WITH
MOISTURE THEN BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION LAYER DUE TO LIGHT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS.

COOL WEDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
WEST ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO VEER AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST...GRADUALLY
ERODING AND DISPLACING TENACIOUS MOIST COOL.

THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES REMAINING IN
LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF RISING OF CEILING INTO MVFR RANGE IS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLUEFIELD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING
UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...BUT THIS NOT AT ALL CERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AND MAY BE THE ONLY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR CONDITION
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED ABOVE...SHOULD SEE UNIVERSAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK INTO VFR OR UNRESTRICTED RANGE BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME
MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THOSE AREAS MAINLY IN VFR RANGE
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...WERT

000
FXUS61 KRNK 221852
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
152 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE MID APPALACHIANS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG
WITH A THREAT OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. MID
LEVEL REFLECTION WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY INLAND OF SURFACE TRACK...PLACING
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA IN GOOD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH
INCREASINGLY MOIST 850-600 MILLIBAR LEVEL. COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND UPSLOPING
RESULTS IN BROAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE MAIN AREA OF LIFT BEGINS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF
BLACKSBURG AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO INITIALLY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...COOL
WEDGE WILL BE REINFORCED AND THEN PERSIST WITH NORTHEASTERLY-
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

ALTHOUGH HIGHEST QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SUFFICIENT UPGLIDE THROUGH
DEEP MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST FACING FLANKS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPING OVER EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WARRANTED SLIGHT LOWER POPS
DURING THE PERIOD.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A STRONG WEDGE SITUATION...ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND VERY FLAT/NEGLIGIBLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLDER MAVMOS AND
EXISTING SET OF GRIDS PREFERRED OVER THE SOMEWHAT MILDER METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A SURFACE WEDGE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED. ALSO AIDING IN THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL
BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND MAINLY DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...PARTICULARLY NORTHEASTERN SLOPES. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...PARENT SYSTEM PULLS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH WITH
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS KEEPING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA. DO NOT THINK RAINFALL...IF ANY...WILL MEASURE BUT THERE COULD
BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING.
ALSO CHARACTERIZE DRIZZLE SIMILAR TO RAIN...CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE...TO KEEP TEXT PRODUCTS SIMPLE. DOES LOOK LIKE DRIZZLE WILL
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS TYPICAL WITH ANY SATURATED WEDGE...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FILL BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND COULD TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE MID WEST. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG LIKELY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ON EASTERN SLOPES POSSIBLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD CLOUDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS TEND TO ERODE WEDGE TO QUICK. AS
THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR BACK TO AND/OR
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WITH A WARM START. THE AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS INTO MVFR RANGE
BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND DOWN FURTHER INTO IFR RANGE BY LATER
TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS NEAR
SURFACE WILL ENHANCE COOL WEDGE/INVERSION OVER AREA...WITH
MOISTURE THEN BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION LAYER DUE TO LIGHT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS.

COOL WEDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
WEST ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO VEER AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST...GRADUALLY
ERODING AND DISPLACING TENACIOUS MOIST COOL.

THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES REMAINING IN
LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF RISING OF CEILING INTO MVFR RANGE IS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLUEFIELD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING
UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...BUT THIS NOT AT ALL CERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AND MAY BE THE ONLY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR CONDITION
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED ABOVE...SHOULD SEE UNIVERSAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK INTO VFR OR UNRESTRICTED RANGE BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME
MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THOSE AREAS MAINLY IN VFR RANGE
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...WERT

000
FXUS61 KRNK 221850
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO
THE MID APPALACHIANS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG
WITH A THREAT OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
AND BE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. MID
LEVEL REFLECTION WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY INLAND OF SURFACE TRACK...PLACING
BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA IN GOOD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH
INCREASINGLY MOIST 850-600 MILLIBAR LEVEL. COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND UPSLOPING
RESULTS IN BROAD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE MAIN AREA OF LIFT BEGINS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF
BLACKSBURG AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND
AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO INITIALLY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...COOL
WEDGE WILL BE REINFORCED AND THEN PERSIST WITH NORTHEASTERLY-
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

ALTHOUGH HIGHEST QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SUFFICIENT UPGLIDE THROUGH
DEEP MOIST LAYER SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
MEASURABLE RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST FACING FLANKS OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND FOOTHILLS.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPING OVER EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WARRANTED SLIGHT LOWER POPS
DURING THE PERIOD.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A STRONG WEDGE SITUATION...ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND VERY FLAT/NEGLIGIBLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLDER MAVMOS AND
EXISTING SET OF GRIDS PREFERRED OVER THE SOMEWHAT MILDER METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A SURFACE WEDGE WILL REMAIN WITH THE
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH THE PARENT SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVELS SATURATED. ALSO AIDING IN THE NORTHERLY FETCH WILL
BE A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL STAY OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOW CHANCE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND MAINLY DRIZZLE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...PARTICULARLY NORTHEASTERN SLOPES. DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...PARENT SYSTEM PULLS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH WITH
POSSIBLE SUNSHINE POKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS KEEPING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO HAVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CWA. DO NOT THINK RAINFALL...IF ANY...WILL MEASURE BUT THERE COULD
BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING.
ALSO CHARACTERIZE DRIZZLE SIMILAR TO RAIN...CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE...TO KEEP TEXT PRODUCTS SIMPLE. DOES LOOK LIKE DRIZZLE WILL
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS TYPICAL WITH ANY SATURATED WEDGE...ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL FILL BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND COULD TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ENTERS THE MID WEST. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG LIKELY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ON EASTERN SLOPES POSSIBLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WEDGE BREAKING BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD CLOUDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MODELS TEND TO ERODE WEDGE TO QUICK. AS
THE WEDGE BREAKS WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR BACK TO AND/OR
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WITH A WARM START. THE AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND POSSIBLY PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS INTO MVFR RANGE
BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND DOWN FURTHER INTO IFR RANGE BY LATER
TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS NEAR
SURFACE WILL ENHANCE COOL WEDGE/INVERSION OVER AREA...WITH
MOISTURE THEN BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION LAYER DUE TO LIGHT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS.

COOL WEDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
WEST ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO VEER AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST...GRADUALLY
ERODING AND DISPLACING TENACIOUS MOIST COOL.

THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES REMAINING IN
LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF RISING OF CEILING INTO MVFR RANGE IS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLUEFIELD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING
UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...BUT THIS NOT AT ALL CERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AND MAY BE THE ONLY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR CONDITION
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED ABOVE...SHOULD SEE UNIVERSAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK INTO VFR OR UNRESTRICTED RANGE BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME
MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THOSE AREAS MAINLY IN VFR RANGE
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...WERT

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221823
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
123 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK EAST
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TRACK UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES WILL STRENGTHEN OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN. HI CLDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVR THE GULF CST STATES...BUT WILL NOT REALLY
THICKEN TIL LTR TNGT. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME SC ALNG THE CST.
MSTLY SNY OR PRTLY SNY THIS AFTN WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LWR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N)
OVER THE RGN AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TIL LATE
EVE AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE FAR S. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY
LIGHT AT FIRST...AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM LATER TNT AND INTO MON AM. REALLY DO NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACCUMULATING TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
TRACES N TO NEAR 0.10 FAR S BY DAYBREAK MON...AS SYSTEM PUSHES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FCST SNDGS SHOW BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP TO
OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MON...AS SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER UP THE EAST
COAST BEFORE MORE OF A --RA/-DZ SCENARIO DVLPG INTO TUE OVER THE
AREA. GNRLY CALLING FOR NEAR A 0.10 OF AN INCH NW TO 0.25-0.35 FAR
S FOR STORM TOTAL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAR SE).

WITH THIS IN MIND...E/NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGN ON TUE.
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO NAM SOLN CALLING FOR A CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS
OF --RA/-DZ TO OCCUR...AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW MOISTURE AT LOW LVLS DOES NOT LOOK TO
ERODE TIL TUE NIGHT/ERLY WED. BUT IF SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...COULD SEE
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN CRNTLY FCSTG (ESP S/SW).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
AND LATEST GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE
MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLD COAST THU NGT/FRI AS UPR LVL ENERGY
OVER THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST GETS INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER
THE RGN...BUT BEARS WATCHING (ESPECIALLY BY THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS LATER THIS WK).

HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S WED/THU...COOLING
TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS AND STRATOCU HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE ONSHORE NE FLOW...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES.

RAIN OVER GEORGIA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
ACROSS ALABAMA WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LAV USED TO FORECAST THE
START TIMES OF THE RAIN. CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH LGT
RAIN/BR AND TO IFR A FEW HOURS LATER IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH MET
AND MAV.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES OUT MON NIGHT BUT MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP IFR CIGS IN THE AREA INTO TUE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE
BY WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHC FOR PCPN
AND LOWER CEILINGS THU. DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD BRING VFR
CONDITIONS BACK ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SRN SYSTM...HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINITY IN STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS WELL TO HOW IT WILL
INTERACT (P-GRDNT WISE) WITH 1035MB HIGH TO THE N. SO CRNT SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO XTND HEADLINES THRU
MON NITE (END OF 4TH PRD).

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTS THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW ENGLAND (1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH
THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015
MB...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE
PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. WILL CONT WITH WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT ON THE COAST...AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE. IF NAM
H925 WNDS VERIFY...MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTRN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST GALE WTCH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB/CCW
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KRNK 221754
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1254 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STAY RIDGED SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ALSO THINNING ALONG NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AS AREA PUSHES NORTH INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER READINGS IN
THE 40S HOLDING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

INCOMING 12Z NAM STILL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN (AS OPPOSED TO VIRGA) ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT LATEST RUN OF THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF DO NOT SUPPORT
THREAT MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL DELAY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

TONIGHT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO OCCUR
ALONG THE NC COAST WHICH MAY HINDER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 00Z ECMWF/GEM.
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...THE MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE AS
WRAPPED UP AROUND IT...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEST CHANCE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE SRN BLUE
RIDGE...EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. THE NAM QPF SEEMS A LITTLE
ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE 40S...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAS CONTINUED. HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE
SAME ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF
WITH THE EVENT...MORE LIKE A CONSISTENT VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO REGISTER 0.01" ESPECIALLY
IN THE LYH/DAN/FVX CORRIDOR.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. POPS
HAVE SLOWED WITH DIGGING MIDWEST H5 LOWS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARDS INTO MVFR RANGE
BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND DOWN FURTHER INTO IFR RANGE BY LATER
TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO INITIALLY DRY AIR MASS NEAR
SURFACE WILL ENHANCE COOL WEDGE/INVERSION OVER AREA...WITH
MOISTURE THEN BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION LAYER DUE TO LIGHT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS.

COOL WEDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
WEST ALLOWS SURFACE WINDS TO VEER AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST...GRADUALLY
ERODING AND DISPLACING TENACIOUS MOIST COOL.

THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES REMAINING IN
LIFR CONDITIONS. SOME BRIEF RISING OF CEILING INTO MVFR RANGE IS
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF BLUEFIELD ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNSLOPING
UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND...BUT THIS NOT AT ALL CERTAIN AT THIS
POINT AND MAY BE THE ONLY AREA TO EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR CONDITION
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED ABOVE...SHOULD SEE UNIVERSAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BACK INTO VFR OR UNRESTRICTED RANGE BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT ARRIVAL OF STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME
MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THOSE AREAS MAINLY IN VFR RANGE
DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WERT/WP
SHORT TERM...DS/KM
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...WERT

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221522
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1022 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK EAST
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TRACK UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES WILL STRENGTHEN OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN. HI CLDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVR THE GULF CST STATES...BUT WILL NOT REALLY
THICKEN TIL LTR TNGT. ALSO...THERE WILL BE SOME SC ALNG THE CST.
MSTLY SNY OR PRTLY SNY THIS AFTN WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO
LWR 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N)
OVER THE RGN AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TIL LATE
EVE AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE FAR S. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY
LIGHT AT FIRST...AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM LATER TNT AND INTO MON AM. REALLY DO NOT SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACCUMULATING TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
TRACES N TO NEAR 0.10 FAR S BY DAYBREAK MON...AS SYSTEM PUSHES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FCST SNDGS SHOW BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP TO
OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MON...AS SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER UP THE EAST
COAST BEFORE MORE OF A --RA/-DZ SCENARIO DVLPG INTO TUE OVER THE
AREA. GNRLY CALLING FOR NEAR A 0.10 OF AN INCH NW TO 0.25-0.35 FAR
S FOR STORM TOTAL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAR SE).

WITH THIS IN MIND...E/NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGN ON TUE.
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO NAM SOLN CALLING FOR A CLOUDY SKY AND PERIODS
OF --RA/-DZ TO OCCUR...AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW MOISTURE AT LOW LVLS DOES NOT LOOK TO
ERODE TIL TUE NIGHT/ERLY WED. BUT IF SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...COULD SEE
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN CRNTLY FCSTG (ESP S/SW).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
AND LATEST GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE
MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLD COAST THU NGT/FRI AS UPR LVL ENERGY
OVER THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST GETS INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER
THE RGN...BUT BEARS WATCHING (ESPECIALLY BY THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS LATER THIS WK).

HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S WED/THU...COOLING
TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU 00Z DESPITE HIGH/MID LVL CLDS (AOA 10K FT)
INCRS THRU THE DAY. SC DECK (BTWN 3-5K FT) OVRSPRDG RGN S-N AFTR
00Z AHEAD OF DVLPNG SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES. BY 05Z...CIGS LWR
INTO MVFR RANGE WITH LGHT RAIN/BR DVLPNG XCPT AT SBY WHERE PCPN
HOLDS OFF THRU FCST PRD.

MVFR CNDTNS LWR TO IFR AS LOW CLDS/RAIN AND FOG CONT MON AND MON NITE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS WED. ANTHR SYSTEM BRINGS A
RETURN OF LWR CIGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN THU.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SRN SYSTM...HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINITY IN STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS WELL TO HOW IT WILL
INTERACT (P-GRDNT WISE) WITH 1035MB HIGH TO THE N. SO CRNT SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO XTND HEADLINES THRU
MON NITE (END OF 4TH PRD).

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTS THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW ENGLAND (1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH
THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015
MB...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE
PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. WILL CONT WITH WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT ON THE COAST...AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE. IF NAM
H925 WNDS VERIFY...MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTRN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST GALE WTCH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-
     654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB/CCW
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KLWX 221501
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1001 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY BEFORE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST PAST THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WEDGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WHILE ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOISTURE
OFF THE OCEAN WILL RESULT IN A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU DECK THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HOLDING OVER
THE CENTRAL CWFA WHILE A SURFACE LOW EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UNTIL LATER IN
THE NIGHTTIME. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP. TEMP
PROFILES...EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NELSON/ALBEMARLE...SHOW
ALL RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PUSHES EAST OFF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...CONTINUING ELY FLOW/CAD FOR THE AREA. EXPECT MARINE
MOISTURE/RAIN/DRIZZLE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH EAST
FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHY. DUE TO OPAQUE LOW CLOUD COVER WITH SOME RAIN...EXPECT
LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MAX-T LOW TO MID 50S...MIN-T LOW TO MID 40S
/AROUND 50F NEAR SHORE/.

TUESDAY...COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MOIST
NELY/NLY FLOW CONTINUING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WELL INTO IF NOT THROUGH TUESDAY. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID WEST TO SPREAD SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...MID 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS BREAKING CAD WEDGE AND ADVECTING IN MOIST SWLY FLOW.
MORE MILD TEMPERATURES...MIN-T MID TO UPPER 40S...MAX-T MID TO UPPER
50S...PERHAPS 60F IN THE MIDDLE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...S/W ENERGY DIGS UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE SERN CONUS BY THURSDAY. ONE OR MORE COLD FRONT PASSAGES ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR THE CWA IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN /TO AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS/ FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID ATLANTIC A POSSIBILITY IN
THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...ADDED RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS /I.E. OVER 500 FT/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH COOLEST
AIR OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE A LOW OVER THE NERN
CONUS BY THE WEEKEND...INDICATING UPSLOPE SNOW IN NWLY FLOW FOR THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CU DECK WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE 3KFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...BUT CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AT ALL TERMINAL SITES...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG. SCT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KCHO TOWARDS 12Z MON.

ONSHORE NELY/ELY FLOW /AROUND 15 KT/ MONDAY WITH PRECIP BEGINNING BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INTO TUESDAY. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT/S/
WITH AN UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO CROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA...BEGINNING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. CERTAINLY PAY
ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TIGHTENING TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST. NE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
HATTERAS MONDAY BRINGS NELY FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR MONDAY /WINDS AROUND 20 KT/ FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC /WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INLAND EXTENT OF STRONGER WINDS/.
WINDS BECOME MORE NLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLY NEEDING EXTENSION. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO
BRING WLY FLOW...SOME PRECIP AND COLDER AIR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
LASORSA/LISTEMAA/BAJ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 221439
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
939 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STAY RIDGED SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ALSO THINNING ALONG NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AS AREA PUSHES NORTH INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TO ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER READINGS IN
THE 40S HOLDING ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

INCOMING 12Z NAM STILL INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN (AS OPPOSED TO VIRGA) ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS...BUT LATEST RUN OF THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF DO NOT SUPPORT
THREAT MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...SO WILL DELAY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION IN AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.

TONIGHT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO OCCUR
ALONG THE NC COAST WHICH MAY HINDER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE 00Z ECMWF/GEM.
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...THE MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE AS
WRAPPED UP AROUND IT...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
BLUE RIDGE. BEST CHANCE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE SRN BLUE
RIDGE...EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. THE NAM QPF SEEMS A LITTLE
ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE 40S...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAS CONTINUED. HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE
SAME ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF
WITH THE EVENT...MORE LIKE A CONSISTENT VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO REGISTER 0.01" ESPECIALLY
IN THE LYH/DAN/FVX CORRIDOR.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. POPS
HAVE SLOWED WITH DIGGING MIDWEST H5 LOWS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ASIDE FROM MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT DAN THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
CLEAR BY 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED.

INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE
LOW LVL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AS CIGS DROP TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR...WITH VSBYS IN
THE 3-6SM RANGE. MODELS DEPICTING LOWER CIGS BUT WITH TREND TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN DECIDED TO BE MORE OPTOMISTIC.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB VFR INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
B4 THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE NC COAST.

ANOTHE FRONT ARRIVES THANKSGIVING WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WERT/WP
SHORT TERM...DS/KM
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/WP

000
FXUS61 KRNK 221147
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
647 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STAY RIDGED SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z MODELS COMING IN SIMILAR IN POSITION OF UPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE SRN GULF COAST STATES. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN AS TO THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. ATTM...APPEARS
THE GEM/ECMWF CAMP HAS THE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS...WITH A LITTLE NAM
THROWN IN FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.

FIRST OFF...THERE IS A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS NUDGING SWD TOWARD THE
MY NRN CWA ATTM. THE 00Z GEM HAD THIS DEPICTED WELL...WITH THE
MOISTURE DISSIPATING TOWARD 12Z. THE CI/CS OVER THE TN VALLEY EAST
INTO NC OVERALL IS THIN...SO THINK TODAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS FROM A COOL
START. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN
CWA...BUT ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOW LVLS REMAINS DRY. WITH BEST LIFT NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL TONIGHT...HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN...BUT STILL
KEEPING CHANCE IN AFTER 4 PM IN THE NC MTNS WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW
OUT OF THE ESE HELPING MOISTEN UP THE ATMSOPHERE. STILL ONLY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS TODAY...BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES
DUE TO DELAY OF CLOUD COVER...CLOSE TO MET MOS.

TONIGHT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO OCCUR
ALONG THE NC COAST WHICH MAY HINDER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF/GEM.
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...THE MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE AS
WRAPPED UP AROUND IT...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. BEST CHANCE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE SRN BLUE
RIDGE...EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. THE NAM QPF SEEMS A LITTLE ON
THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 40S...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAS CONTINUED. HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE
SAME ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF
WITH THE EVENT...MORE LIKE A CONSISTENT VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO REGISTER 0.01" ESPECIALLY
IN THE LYH/DAN/FVX CORRIDOR.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. POPS
HAVE SLOWED WITH DIGGING MIDWEST H5 LOWS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ASIDE FROM MVFR VSBY DUE TO FOG AT DAN THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
CLEAR BY 13Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED.

INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE
LOW LVL MOISTURE INCREASING THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AS CIGS DROP TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR...WITH VSBYS IN
THE 3-6SM RANGE. MODELS DEPICTING LOWER CIGS BUT WITH TREND TO
SLOW THINGS DOWN DECIDED TO BE MORE OPTOMISTIC.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB VFR INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
B4 THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE NC COAST.

ANOTHE FRONT ARRIVES THANKSGIVING WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS/KM
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/WP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
606 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE ERN GRT LKS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BUT WILL NOT
REALLY THICKEN TILL LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WENT WITH M/S NRN
CWA TO P/S SOUTH. HIGHS TDY MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N)
OVER THE RGN AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TILL LATE EVE
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE FAR S. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM LATER TNT AND INTO MON AM. REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP ACCUMULATING TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TRACES N TO NEAR 0.10
FAR S BY DAYBREAK MON AS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FCST
SNDGS SHOW BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MON AS
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST BEFORE MORE OF A --RA/-DZ
SCENARIO DVLPG INTO TUE OVER THE AREA. GNRLY CALLING FOR NEAR A 0.10
OF AN INCH NW TO 0.25-0.35 FAR S FOR STORM TOTAL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FAR SE).

WITH THIS IN MIND...E/NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGN ON TUE.
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO NAM SOLN CALLING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS
OF --RA/-DZ TO OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW MOISTURE AT LOW LVLS DOES NOT LOOK TO
ERODE TILL TUE NIGHT/ERLY WED BUT IF SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...COULD SEE
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN CRNTLY FCSTG (ESP S/SW).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
AND LATEST GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE
MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLD COAST THU NGT/FRI AS UPR LVL ENERGY
OVER THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST GETS INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER
THE RGN...BUT BEARS WATCHING (ESPECIALLY BY THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS LATER THIS WK).

HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S WED/THU...COOLING
TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU 00Z DESPITE HIGH/MID LVL CLDS (AOA 10K FT)
INCRS THRU THE DAY. SC DECK (BTWN 3-5K FT) OVRSPRDG RGN S-N AFTR
00Z AHEAD OF DVLPNG SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES. BY 05Z...CIGS LWR
INTO MVFR RANGE WITH LGHT RAIN/BR DVLPNG XCPT AT SBY WHERE PCPN
HOLDS OFF THRU FCST PRD.

MVFR CNDTNS LWR TO IFR AS LOW CLDS/RAIN AND FOG CONT MON AND MON NITE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS WED. ANTHR SYSTEM BRINGS A
RETURN OF LWR CIGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN THU.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SRN SYSTM...HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINITY IN STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS WELL TO HOW IT WILL
INTERACT (P-GRDNT WISE) WITH 1035MB HIGH TO THE N. SO CRNT SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO XTND HEADLINES THRU
MON NITE (END OF 4TH PRD).

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTS THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW ENGLAND (1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH
THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015
MB...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE
PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. WILL CONT WITH WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT ON THE COAST...AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE. IF NAM
H925 WNDS VERIFY...MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTRN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST GALE WTCH.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB/CCW
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220858
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION.
THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE ERN GRT LKS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES BUT WILL NOT
REALLY THICKEN TILL LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WENT WITH M/S NRN
CWA TO P/S SOUTH. HIGHS TDY MAINLY IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF THE AIRMASS (S-N)
OVER THE RGN AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP TILL LATE EVE
AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE FAR S. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM LATER TNT AND INTO MON AM. REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP ACCUMULATING TO MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TRACES N TO NEAR 0.10
FAR S BY DAYBREAK MON AS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. FCST
SNDGS SHOW BEST CHCS FOR PRECIP TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MON AS
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST BEFORE MORE OF A --RA/-DZ
SCENARIO DVLPG INTO TUE OVER THE AREA. GNRLY CALLING FOR NEAR A 0.10
OF AN INCH NW TO 0.25-0.35 FAR S FOR STORM TOTAL (HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FAR SE).

WITH THIS IN MIND...E/NE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RGN ON TUE.
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO NAM SOLN CALLING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS
OF --RA/-DZ TO OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOW MOISTURE AT LOW LVLS DOES NOT LOOK TO
ERODE TILL TUE NIGHT/ERLY WED BUT IF SYSTEM SPEEDS UP...COULD SEE
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN CRNTLY FCSTG (ESP S/SW).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
AND LATEST GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE
MID ATLC/SRN NEW ENGLD COAST THU NGT/FRI AS UPR LVL ENERGY
OVER THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST GETS INCORPORATED INTO THE SYSTEM.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE WEATHER OVER
THE RGN...BUT BEARS WATCHING (ESPECIALLY BY THOSE WHO HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS LATER THIS WK).

HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S WED/THU...COOLING
TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD. XCPTN BEING SOME MVFR CNDTNS IN
PTCHY FOG (3-4SM) THRU 12Z. HIGH/MID LVL CLDS (AOA 10K FT) INCRS
THRU THE DAY SUN WITH SC DECK (BTWN 3-5K FT) OVRSPRDG RGN S-N AFTR
00Z AHEAD OF DVLPNG SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES.

MVFR CNDTNS LWR TO IFR AS LOW CLDS/RAIN AND FOG OVRSPRD RGN SUN NITE
AND MON. MVFR CNDTNS CONT MON NITE INTO TUE ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DRIZZLE AND FOG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS WED. ANTHR
SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN OF LWR CIGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN THU.

&&

.MARINE...
MODELS IN GNRL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF SRN SYSTM...HOWEVER STILL
SOME UNCERTAINITY IN STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS WELL TO HOW IT WILL
INTERACT (P-GRDNT WISE) WITH 1035MB HIGH TO THE N. SO CRNT SCA
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO XTND HEADLINES THRU
MON NITE (END OF 4TH PRD).

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTS THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW ENGLAND (1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH
THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015
MB...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE
PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. WILL CONT WITH WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT ON THE COAST...AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE. IF NAM
H925 WNDS VERIFY...MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALE GUSTS MONDAY
AFTRN...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST GALE WTCH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTL FLOODING...
NO TIDAL FLOODING CONCERNS ATTM AS ASTRONOMICAL VALUES ARE FAIRLY
LOW...BUT IF GALE FORCE GUSTS DO DVLP...AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLDG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT
ANOMALIES BTWN 1-1.5 FEET ABV NRML.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB/CCW
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220845
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
345 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STAY RIDGED SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z MODELS COMING IN SIMILAR IN POSITION OF UPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE SRN GULF COAST STATES. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN AS TO THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. ATTM...APPEARS
THE GEM/ECMWF CAMP HAS THE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS...WITH A LITTLE NAM
THROWN IN FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.

FIRST OFF...THERE IS A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS NUDGING SWD TOWARD THE
MY NRN CWA ATTM. THE 00Z GEM HAD THIS DEPICTED WELL...WITH THE
MOISTURE DISSIPATING TOWARD 12Z. THE CI/CS OVER THE TN VALLEY EAST
INTO NC OVERALL IS THIN...SO THINK TODAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS FROM A COOL
START. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN
CWA...BUT ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOW LVLS REMAINS DRY. WITH BEST LIFT NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL TONIGHT...HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN...BUT STILL
KEEPING CHANCE IN AFTER 4 PM IN THE NC MTNS WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW
OUT OF THE ESE HELPING MOISTEN UP THE ATMSOPHERE. STILL ONLY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS TODAY...BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES
DUE TO DELAY OF CLOUD COVER...CLOSE TO MET MOS.

TONIGHT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO OCCUR
ALONG THE NC COAST WHICH MAY HINDER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF/GEM.
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...THE MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE AS
WRAPPED UP AROUND IT...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. BEST CHANCE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE SRN BLUE
RIDGE...EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. THE NAM QPF SEEMS A LITTLE ON
THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 40S...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAS CONTINUED. HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE
SAME ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF
WITH THE EVENT...MORE LIKE A CONSISTENT VERY LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO REGISTER 0.01" ESPECIALLY
IN THE LYH/DAN/FVX CORRIDOR.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. POPS
HAVE SLOWED WITH DIGGING MIDWEST H5 LOWS PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT DAN. VISIBILITIES WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE AFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS/KM
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KLWX 220829
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST PAST THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO UPPER LOWS NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING...ONE OVER
NORTHEAST PA AND THE SECOND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. UPPER
LOW OVER PA WILL DROP SLIGHTLY SOUTH TODAY...ALONG THE MASON DIXON
LINE. THE MISSISSIPPI LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND FILL.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD
STRONG ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS
MOISTURE GETS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. AREAS ALONG
THE MASON DIXON LINE SHOULD SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH THE
PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY CLOUDING OVER THE EARLIEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HOLDING OVER
THE CENTRAL CWFA WHILE A SURFACE LOW EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UNTIL LATER IN
THE NIGHTTIME. HAVE MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP. TEMP
PROFILES...EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NELSON/ALBEMARLE...SHOW
ALL RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG HIGH PUSHES EAST OFF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC...CONTINUING ELY FLOW/CAD FOR THE AREA. EXPECT MARINE
MOISTURE/RAIN/DRIZZLE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH EAST
FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHY. DUE TO OPAQUE LOW CLOUD COVER WITH SOME RAIN...EXPECT
LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MAX-T LOW TO MID 50S...MIN-T LOW TO MID 40S
/AROUND 50F NEAR SHORE/.

TUESDAY...COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MOIST
NELY/NLY FLOW CONTINUING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WELL INTO IF NOT THROUGH TUESDAY. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID WEST TO SPREAD SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...MID 50S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL CONUS BREAKING CAD WEDGE AND ADVECTING IN MOIST SWLY FLOW.
MORE MILD TEMPERATURES...MIN-T MID TO UPPER 40S...MAX-T MID TO UPPER
50S...PERHAPS 60F IN THE MIDDLE SHENANDOAH VALLEY WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...S/W ENERGY DIGS UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE SERN CONUS BY THURSDAY. ONE OR MORE COLD FRONT PASSAGES ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR THE CWA IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN /TO AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS/ FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS IN THE MID ATLANTIC A POSSIBILITY IN
THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. CONTINUED CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...ADDED RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS /I.E. OVER 500 FT/ EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH COOLEST
AIR OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE A LOW OVER THE NERN
CONUS BY THE WEEKEND...INDICATING UPSLOPE SNOW IN NWLY FLOW FOR THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY ON UPPER TROUGH.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS LIKELY JUST BEFORE AND RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES...WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG. SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KCHO TOWARDS 12Z MON.

ONSHORE NELY/ELY FLOW /AROUND 15 KT/ MONDAY WITH PRECIP BEGINNING BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INTO TUESDAY. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT/S/
WITH AN UNCERTAIN AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO CROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA...BEGINNING A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. CERTAINLY PAY
ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TIGHTENING TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KT...AND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING OFF CAPE
HATTERAS MONDAY BRINGS NELY FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR MONDAY /WINDS AROUND 20 KT/ FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT UPPER TIDAL
POTOMAC /WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INLAND EXTENT OF STRONGER WINDS/.
WINDS BECOME MORE NLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
POSSIBLY NEEDING EXTENSION. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT
WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO
BRING WLY FLOW...SOME PRECIP AND COLDER AIR.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
LISTEMAA/BAJ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220742
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
242 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STAY RIDGED SOUTH FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME...AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z MODELS COMING IN SIMILAR IN POSITION OF UPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE SRN GULF COAST STATES. DIFFERENCES
REMAIN AS TO THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. ATTM...APPEARS
THE GEM/ECMWF CAMP HAS THE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS...WITH A LITTLE NAM
THROWN IN FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.

FIRST OFF...THERE IS A BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS NUDGING SWD TOWARD THE
MY NRN CWA ATTM. THE 00Z GEM HAD THIS DEPICTED WELL...WITH THE
MOISTURE DISSIPATING TOWARD 12Z. THE CI/CS OVER THE TN VALLEY EAST
INTO NC OVERALL IS THIN...SO THINK TODAY WILL START OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS FROM A COOL
START. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN
CWA...BUT ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOW LVLS REMAINS DRY. WITH BEST LIFT NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL TONIGHT...HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN...BUT STILL
KEEPING CHANCE IN AFTER 4 PM IN THE NC MTNS WITH THE LOW LVL FLOW
OUT OF THE ESE HELPING MOISTEN UP THE ATMSOPHERE. STILL ONLY LIGHT
RAIN EXPECTED. WITH HIGHS TODAY...BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES
DUE TO DELAY OF CLOUD COVER...CLOSE TO MET MOS.

TONIGHT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO OCCUR
ALONG THE NC COAST WHICH MAY HINDER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA.
THIS IS DEPICTED ON THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF/GEM.
HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...THE MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE AS
WRAPPED UP AROUND IT...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE BLUE
RIDGE. BEST CHANCE STILL LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE SRN BLUE
RIDGE...EAST INTO THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. THE NAM QPF SEEMS A LITTLE ON
THE HIGH SIDE...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM
THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 40S...WITH LOWS CLOSE TO MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THAT REFLECT A SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME
ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A
SLOWER EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
NUMBERS.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. BY LATE
TUESDAY...BUT MORE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT DAN. VISIBILITIES WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE AFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220525
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1225 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED
THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

OVERNIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E
TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY
CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL
LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO
MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.

RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.

CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.

FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD. XCPTN BEING SOME MVFR CNDTNS IN
PTCHY FOG (3-4SM) THRU 12Z. HIGH/MID LVL CLDS (AOA 10K FT) INCRS
THRU THE DAY SUN WITH SC DECK (BTWN 3-5K FT) OVRSPRDG RGN S-N AFTR
00Z AHEAD OF DVLPNG SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES.

MVFR CNDTNS LWR TO IFR AS LOW CLDS/RAIN AND FOG OVRSPRD RGN SUN NITE
AND MON. MVFR CNDTNS CONT MON NITE INTO TUE ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN
DRIZZLE AND FOG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS WED. ANTHR
SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN OF LWR CIGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN THU.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS THRU ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY 10-15 KT
ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ON
SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NE...AND LOW PRS
ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT WEEK.
WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY ON S AND FOR
THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).

NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.

&&

.TIDES/CSTL FLOODING...TIDAL FLOODING NOT LOOKING TO BE MAJOR CONCERN
AS ASTRONOMICAL VALES ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT IF STRONGER WINDS PREVAIL
AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY. STILL...THIS
IS NOT A REAL SLOW SYSTEM (LIKE LAST WEEK) SO THE ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY
ONLY BUILD TO 1-1.5 FEET.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...LKB/MPR/JEF
EQUIPMENT...AKQ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220441
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1141 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE SUNDAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 900 MB. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HPC AND SPC SREF...THE LOCAL WRF OR
BUFKIT SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
18Z...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
BY 00Z MONDAY THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REACH THE REST OF NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TIMING AND SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF RAINFALL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
GUIDANCE.

HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN AND
THICKENING LOUD COVER. WENT WITH ADJMAVBC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THAT REFLECT A SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME
ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A
SLOWER EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
NUMBERS.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. BY LATE
TUESDAY...BUT MORE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LACK OF CLOUDS COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN TO THE DEW POINT IN
SOME LOCATIONS. MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG AREA RIVERS AND
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GREENBRIER...NEW AND DAN RIVERS.
VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
LATE SUNDAY WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE AFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220424 AAB
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1124 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED
THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

OVERNIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E
TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY
CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL
LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO
MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.

RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.

CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.

FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES GENLY CLR TONIGHT WITH A FEW STRATOCU AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS THRU THE NIGHT WITH CHC OF PTCHY
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY ON SUN WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRES SYS TO THE
SOUTH CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT
WX SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).

NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME
ISN`T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...LKB/JEF
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220422
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1122 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE SUNDAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 900 MB. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HPC AND SPC SREF...THE LOCAL WRF OR
BUFKIT SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
18Z...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
BY 00Z MONDAY THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REACH THE REST OF NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TIMING AND SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF RAINFALL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
GUIDANCE.

HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN AND
THICKENING LOUD COVER. WENT WITH ADJMAVBC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THAT REFLECT A SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME
ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A
SLOWER EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
NUMBERS.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. BY LATE
TUESDAY...BUT MORE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA. SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MVFR FOG IN LWB DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
LATE SUNDAY. MODELS WERE STILL SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL TIME
OF THE RAIN...SO WITH THAT IN MIND WE MAY NOT SEE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE AFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220245
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED
THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

OVERNIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E
TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY
CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL
LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO
MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.

RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.

CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.

FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES GENLY CLR TONIGHT WITH A FEW STRATOCU AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDS THRU THE NIGHT WITH CHC OF PTCHY
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOME LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY ON SUN WITH APPROACH OF LOW PRES SYS TO THE
SOUTH CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT
WX SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON
THU.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).

NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...LKB/JEF

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 220135
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
835 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED
THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE
UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.

OVERNIGHT...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME
TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E
TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY
CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL
LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE
LOWER EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY
MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE
REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO
MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.

RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.

CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.

FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.

IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).

NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM
NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220132
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
832 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GULF COAST WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE SUNDAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 900 MB. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HPC AND SPC SREF...THE LOCAL WRF OR
BUFKIT SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
18Z...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
BY 00Z MONDAY THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REACH THE REST OF NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TIMING AND SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF RAINFALL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
GUIDANCE.

PLAYED LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE DELAYED ONSET OF
PCPN AND THICKENING LOUD COVER. WENT WITH ADJMAVBC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THAT REFLECT A SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME
ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A
SLOWER EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
NUMBERS.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. BY LATE
TUESDAY...BUT MORE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA. SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MVFR FOG IN LWB DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
LATE SUNDAY. MODELS WERE STILL SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL TIME
OF THE RAIN...SO WITH THAT IN MIND WE MAY NOT SEE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE AFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KRNK 220111
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
811 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST BY
LATE SUNDAY.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 600 AND 900 MB. NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HPC AND SPC SREF...THE LOCAL WRF OR
BUFKIT SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER
18Z...AND THAT IS JUST FOR THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
BY 00Z MONDAY THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REACH THE REST OF NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
TIMING AND SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF RAINFALL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
GUIDANCE.

PLAYED LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE DELAYED ONSET OF
PCPN AND THICKENING LOUD COVER. WENT WITH ADJMAVBC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THAT REFLECT A SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME
ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A
SLOWER EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
NUMBERS.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. BY LATE
TUESDAY...BUT MORE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA. SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MVFR FOG IN LWB DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
LATE SUNDAY. MODELS WERE STILL SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL TIME
OF THE RAIN...SO WITH THAT IN MIND WE MAY NOT SEE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE AFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KLWX 220015 AAA
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
715 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BRIEFLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BKN-OVC CLD CVRG RMNS SLOW TO ERODE OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF FCST
AREA. HAVE RESTRUCTURED CLD GRIDS TNGT AND INTRODUCED FOG INTO WX
GRIDS. OTHERWISE...FCST GENLY IN GOOD SHAPE. TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SPLIT JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
IS MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TRACKS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER PA SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY HANG
ON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH
NOT TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.

A LOW-LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GDNC TRENDING MUCH SLOER...HOLDING OFF PCPN SUN NGT AS STRONG HIPRES
OVR NEW ENGLND RDGS DWN ATLC CST. EMPHASIS OF RAFL NOW MON-MON
NGT...AS A WK WV IN THE SRN STREAM SPILLS MSTR NWD...AND EVENTUALLY
SPAWNS CSTL LOW. WAA ON SRN DOORSTEP SUNSET SUN...AND CLDS WL
THICKEN/LWR THRU EVE. WL BRING POPS INTO GRIDS LT SUN EVE/SUN
OVNGT...SPCLY SRN CNTYS WHICH IS NEARER TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

BY MON-MON NGT...ENERGY WL TRANSFER OFF CST. PCPN WL BE IN RESPONSE
TO DVLPG LOW...MOSTLY IN DEFORMATION ZN. HV LINGERED A CHC INTO
TUE...SPCLY NRN CNTYS. HWVR...CAA SHUD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEEP
MSTR. BUT...FLOW WONT GO WLY...AND AS SUCH AM AFRAID WL HOLD ONTO A
PRTL MARINE DECK INTO MIDWK. PER XTNDD DSCN 2 PARAGRAPHS DWN...FCST
AT THIS PT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...AND GRIDDED DETAILS BECOME
BROADER IN SCOPE.

PER TEMPS...HV LMTD DIURNAL SWINGS IN RESPONSE TO CLDCVR NXT CPL
DAYS...GOING ON HIGH SIDE FOR MIN-T...AND LOW END FOR MAXT. DID
SHADE DWNWD MON NGT SINCE CWFA WL BE AFFECTED BY CAA BY THEN.

WE/VE ENTERED THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN SPLIT FLOW WRECKS HAVOC ON MDL
SOLNS. IT APPEARS WE/RE ENTERING SUCH A PD. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES
REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY DIGGING INTO TROF ACRS THE PLAINS...LKLY
CUTTING OFF AN UPR LOW...AND THEN TRAVERSING THE CONUS AS ADDTL
PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY DIVE INTO THE TROF AXIS. GFS AND GGEM DEEPER
AND QUICKER W/ H5 LOW...WHICH IS ALMOST CONTRADICTORY. WL TAKE A
HIGHLY ENSEMBLED APPROACH...LEANING ON STEADIER ECMWF. REGARDLESS...
WL HV AN UPR TROF IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD /PRBLY CNTRD OVR THE GRTLKS/
THIS THXGVG...WHICH MEANS THE XTNDD FCST WL START OUT WARM...THEN HV
A CFP COOL CWFA OFF. THERE ALSO WL BE THE SUPPORT FOR PCPN-- RA AT
1ST...BUT HGTS/TKNSS/H8 TEMPS WUD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNW...SPCLY
FOR THE MTNS BY THU NGT..WHICH MAY CONT INTO FRI ACRS WRN UPSLP
AREAS. POP FCST LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM...BUT WL CONT TO BE MONITORED
DUE TO POTL TRVL IMPACTS. THE WRN UPSLP ASPECT TO THE FCST THE MOST
SOLID.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT VRB-NLY WINDS XPCD TNGT. CIGS AROUND 5 KFT MAKING SLOW WWD
PROGRESS. THESE CLDS XPCD TO LINGER THRU THIS EVE AT KMRB/KIAD BUT
WILL ERODE LATE THIS EVE. CLDS MAY BE REPLACED BY PATCHY MVFR FOG
AS RGN WILL BE FOUND IN SWRN QUADRANT OF BROAD SFC HIPRES CNTRD IN
NEW ENGLAND. INCRG CLDS SUN AFTN AS ENELY FETCH BGNS TO TRANSPORT
ATLC MSTR WWD.

VFR SUN EVE...AS CLDS THICKEN/LWR FM S-N. FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL
OVNGT AS RA SPREADS IN. RESTRICTIONS PREVALENT MON-MON NGT AS LOPRES
PASSES E OF TERMINALS.

SHUD BE A BREAK TUE-WED...THO MARINE LYR CUD POTENTIALLY HOLD ON.
THEN...ANTHR STORM SYSTEM MVS IN WED NGT-THU...FLLWD BY COLD AIR BY
END OF WK.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIPRES BUILDS ACRS NEW ENGLAND TNGT. NO HAZARDS XPCD THRU SUN
AS WINDS VEER SLGTLY FROM NLY TO NELY. SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 10 KT
XPCD SUN AMID MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WK WV OF LOPRES TRACKS ACRS SERN CONUS SUN NGT...AND
TRANSFERS/DEEPENS OFF DELMARVA MON-MON NGT. WNDS INCR DURING THIS
PD...W/ SCA CONDS PSBL.

IN WAKE OF THIS LOW AND IN ADVC OF NXT STORM SYSTM...N WNDS VEER
ELY. MORE PCPN WL SPREAD IN MIDWK...BUT SCA NOT XPCTD ATTM.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KRAMAR
PREV DISCUSSION...LASORSA/HTS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 212344
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
644 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST...THEN NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ONSET OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WEDGE AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. LEANED POPS TOWARDS A GFS/SREF BLEND.

USED GEM/GFS FOR CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS THINNING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE.  LIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
PLAYED LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY FOR SUNDAY WITH DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN AND THICKER CLOUD
COVER IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY. WENT WITH ADJMAVBC FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THAT REFLECT A SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME
ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A
SLOWER EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
NUMBERS.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. BY LATE
TUESDAY...BUT MORE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IN WEST VIRGINIA. SO HAVE
MAINTAINED MVFR FOG IN LWB DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
LATE SUNDAY. MODELS WERE STILL SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL TIME
OF THE RAIN...SO WITH THAT IN MIND WE MAY NOT SEE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE AFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/KK

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212151
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
451 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HI PRES OVR THE ERN GRT LKS WILL SLIDE E TWD NRN NEW ENGLAND TNGT
INTO SUN MORNG. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS
MAINTAINING A MSTLY CLR OR PRTL CLDY SKY. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE ALL AREAS THE FIRST PART OF SUN...THEN
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM S TO N THE REMAINDER OF SUN INTO
SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL
BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES
TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.

RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.

CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID
ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL
CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E
LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH
OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST
THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST
THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF
TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE
VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH
FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW.

FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND
SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT
DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE
NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S
WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S
FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.

IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS TONIGHT AND ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY
10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE
NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN
INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT).

NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A
PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS
AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF
THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE
MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS
(UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON
MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES
MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS
SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL.

&&

TIDES/CSTL FLOODING...TIDAL FLOODING NOT LOOKING TO BE MAJOR
CONCERN AS ASTRONOMICAL VALES ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT IF STRONGER
WINDS PREVAIL AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY. STILL...THIS IS NOT A REAL SLOW SYSTEM (LIKE LAST WEEK) SO
THE ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY ONLY BUILD TO 1-1.5 FEET.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTG
NEAR TERM...MTG
SHORT TERM...MTG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB
TIDES/CSTL FLOODING...LKB

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 212120
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
420 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE
EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HI PRES OVR THE ERN GRT LKS WILL SLIDE E TWD NRN NEW ENGLAND TNGT
INTO SUN MORNG. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS
MAINTAINING A MSTLY CLR OR PRTL CLDY SKY. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S
TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH
THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG.
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY
HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE ALL AREAS THE FIRST PART OF SUN...THEN
CLDS WILL INCRS AND THICKEN FM S TO N THE REMAINDER OF SUN INTO
SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL
BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES
TO JUST OFF THE SE CST.

RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST
ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING
RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS
FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY
ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST.

CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST
SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.

IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.

LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ630-631.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...LKB

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211944
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
244 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST...THEN NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ONSET OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WEDGE AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. LEANED POPS TOWARDS A GFS/SREF BLEND.

USED GEM/GFS FOR CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS THINNING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE.  LIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
PLAYED LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY FOR SUNDAY WITH DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN AND THICKER CLOUD
COVER IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY. WENT WITH ADJMAVBC FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THAT REFLECT A SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME
ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A
SLOWER EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
NUMBERS.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. BY LATE
TUESDAY...BUT MORE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ECMWF HAS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY
FOLLOWING AND SLIDING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CHANCE POPS
IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AND TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850MB...850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING TO NEAR FREEZING...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START COOLING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE WEST TO LOW 50S IN THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VA/NC.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIRRUS/CS CI GS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA BY TUESDAY. LOOK FOR LOWERING CI GS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BY LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWING THE RAIN START TIMES DOWN...SO
WITH THAT IN MIND WE MAY NOT SEE SUB VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE AFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...KK/WP

000
FXUS61 KLWX 211943
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING
OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A SPLIT JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
IS MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TRACKS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE STRATO CU DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER PA SHOULD DISSIPATE ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY HANG
ON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA INTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTO THE
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...TO THE MID 40S IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SOUTH
NOT TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.

A LOW-LEVEL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS
WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GDNC TRENDING MUCH SLOER...HOLDING OFF PCPN SUN NGT AS STRONG HIPRES
OVR NEW ENGLND RDGS DWN ATLC CST. EMPHASIS OF RAFL NOW MON-MON
NGT...AS A WK WV IN THE SRN STREAM SPILLS MSTR NWD...AND EVENTUALLY
SPAWNS CSTL LOW. WAA ON SRN DOORSTEP SUNSET SUN...AND CLDS WL
THICKEN/LWR THRU EVE. WL BRING POPS INTO GRIDS LT SUN EVE/SUN
OVNGT...SPCLY SRN CNTYS WHICH IS NEARER TRIGGERING MECHANISM.

BY MON-MON NGT...ENERGY WL TRANSFER OFF CST. PCPN WL BE IN RESPONSE
TO DVLPG LOW...MOSTLY IN DEFORMATION ZN. HV LINGERED A CHC INTO
TUE...SPCLY NRN CNTYS. HWVR...CAA SHUD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DEEP
MSTR. BUT...FLOW WONT GO WLY...AND AS SUCH AM AFRAID WL HOLD ONTO A
PRTL MARINE DECK INTO MIDWK. PER XTNDD DSCN 2 PARAGRAPHS DWN...FCST
AT THIS PT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...AND GRIDDED DETAILS BECOME
BROADER IN SCOPE.

PER TEMPS...HV LMTD DIURNAL SWINGS IN RESPONSE TO CLDCVR NXT CPL
DAYS...GOING ON HIGH SIDE FOR MIN-T...AND LOW END FOR MAXT. DID
SHADE DWNWD MON NGT SINCE CWFA WL BE AFFECTED BY CAA BY THEN.

WE/VE ENTERED THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN SPLIT FLOW WRECKS HAVOC ON MDL
SOLNS. IT APPEARS WE/RE ENTERING SUCH A PD. THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES
REVOLVE ARND S/WV ENERGY DIGGING INTO TROF ACRS THE PLAINS...LKLY
CUTTING OFF AN UPR LOW...AND THEN TRAVERSING THE CONUS AS ADDTL
PIECES OF S/WV ENERGY DIVE INTO THE TROF AXIS. GFS AND GGEM DEEPER
AND QUICKER W/ H5 LOW...WHICH IS ALMOST CONTRADICTORY. WL TAKE A
HIGHLY ENSEMBLED APPROACH...LEANING ON STEADIER ECMWF. REGARDLESS...
WL HV AN UPR TROF IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD /PRBLY CNTRD OVR THE GRTLKS/
THIS THXGVG...WHICH MEANS THE XTNDD FCST WL START OUT WARM...THEN HV
A CFP COOL CWFA OFF. THERE ALSO WL BE THE SUPPORT FOR PCPN-- RA AT
1ST...BUT HGTS/TKNSS/H8 TEMPS WUD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNW...SPCLY
FOR THE MTNS BY THU NGT..WHICH MAY CONT INTO FRI ACRS WRN UPSLP
AREAS. POP FCST LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM...BUT WL CONT TO BE MONITORED
DUE TO POTL TRVL IMPACTS. THE WRN UPSLP ASPECT TO THE FCST THE MOST
SOLID.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY BR MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS SUNDAY WITH THE DIRECTIONS VEERING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.

VFR SUN EVE...AS CLDS THICKEN/LWR FM S-N. FLGT RESTRICTIONS PSBL
OVNGT AS RA SPREADS IN. RESTRICTIONS PREVALENT MON-MON NGT AS LOPRES
PASSES E OF TERMINALS.

SHUD BE A BREAK TUE-WED...THO MARINE LYR CUD POTENTIALLY HOLD ON.
THEN...ANTHR STORM SYSTEM MVS IN WED NGT-THU...FLLWD BY COLD AIR BY
END OF WK.
&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WILL BUILD TOWARD THE NORTH
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WK WV OF LOPRES TRACKS ACRS SERN CONUS SUN NGT...AND
TRANSFERS/DEEPENS OFF DELMARVA MON-MON NGT. WNDS INCR DURING THIS
PD...W/ SCA CONDS PSBL.

IN WAKE OF THIS LOW AND IN ADVC OF NXT STORM SYSTM...N WNDS VEER
ELY. MORE PCPN WL SPREAD IN MIDWK...BUT SCA NOT XPCTD ATTM.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...BJL
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BJL/HTS
MARINE...BJL/HTS

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211937
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST...THEN NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SLOWING THE ONSET OF PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WEDGE AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. LEANED POPS TOWARDS A GFS/SREF BLEND.

USED GEM/GFS FOR CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS THINNING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH LATE.  LIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
PLAYED LOWS TONIGHT CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE TRICKY FOR SUNDAY WITH DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN AND THICKER CLOUD
COVER IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY. WENT WITH ADJMAVBC FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE TO SLOW THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS THAT REFLECT A SLOWER TIMING OF THE HIGHER
POPS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER HAVE MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME
ORIENTATION OF THOSE POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A
SLOWER EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
NUMBERS.

A STRONG...COOL...RAIN FED WEDGE WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY...AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. BY LATE
TUESDAY...BUT MORE ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE
HANGS ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH THICKNESSES 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING BY MID WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN THESE
SAME AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES...SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO REACH FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

GFS HAS BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED. IT HAS BEEN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN EACH RUN
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIRRUS/CS CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA BY TUESDAY. LOOK FOR LOWERING CIGS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BY LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWING THE RAIN START TIMES DOWN...SO
WITH THAT IN MIND WE MAY NOT SEE SUB VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...KK/WP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211754
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1254 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES CNTRD TO OUR N WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS AFTN...AS NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVES ALONG THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. N/NE WINDS OVR THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. HI CLDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACRS THE CWA...DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SYSTEM. SO...GENERALLY A PRTLY SNY AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OFF FAIRLY LIGHT
AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF
MAIN SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.

PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH
CIGS OF 050 NW OF RIC WAS SPREADING SE BUT APPEARS ON STLT TO BE
DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY SCT CLOUDS AT RIC AND SBY.

IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR FOG BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH SBY LOOKING AT NAM BUFR SOUNDING. LEFT OUT OF TAF
FOR NOW.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THICKEN ON SUN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS FOR TUE AND WED. THE NEXT WX
SYSTEM MAY BRING A RETURN OF LWR CEILINGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.

LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211734
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1234 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT
OUR WEATHER SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS MAY EFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. FOR TONIGHT
THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR AREA....WHILE THE TROUGH
OVER TX SLIDES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. QUESTION FOR TONIGHT
IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ? TREND OF MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL REVIEW 12Z RUNS BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS IN
POPS. DECIDED MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER THIS RUN WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COASTAL REGION. THE 00Z GFS ATTM...IS
DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE CS POURING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE SOME THINNING ACROSS
THE RIVER VALLEYS SO KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS
AND EFFECT ON TEMPS. DURING THE LATE FALL MONTHS THE GFS SEEMS TO DO
A BETTER JOB WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN TERMS OF ITS RH DEPICTION IN THE
UPPER LVLS...AND THE AMOUNT OF OPAQUENESS IS SOMETIMES
UNDERESTIMATED. FOR NOW...WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THINK THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL  GET SHUNTED
EAST...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING IN THE NWRN CWA...ALTHOUGH
NOT IMPRESSED WITH THAT ATTM. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RUN WITH A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR SKY COVER WITH 40-60 PERCENT
COVERAGE. HIGHS AS SUCH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF 50S IN THE MTNS TO LOWER 60S OUT EAST...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

TONIGHT...THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES SLOWLY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR
CWA....WHILE THE TROUGH OVER TX SLIDES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THINKING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS SOUTH OF
OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT THE CHANCE IN THERE
FOR POTENTIAL OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING FURTHER EAST. THE E-SE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT MAY HELP SATURATE THE LOW LVLS OVER THE NC MTNS.
ALL IN ALL...PRETTY DRY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
NORTH BUT INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME EVAP COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH VIRGA IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING SLOWER...DRIER AND KEEPING HEAVIER RAIN
SE OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WAS FORCED TO REDUCE AND
SLOW POPS...HOWEVER DID NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS
MAY PROBABLY AGAIN CHANGE DRASTICALLY. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE MOVES
UP THE COAST ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERING FROM
THE WEST IN ITS WAKE...MAY ALLOW ANOTHER RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP
LATER MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE AM OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT
WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 60F AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE
HANGS ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH THICKNESSES 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING BY MID WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN THESE
SAME AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES...SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO REACH FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

GFS HAS BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED. IT HAS BEEN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN EACH RUN
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIRRUS/CS CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA BY TUESDAY. LOOK FOR LOWERING CIGS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES BY LATE
SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWING THE RAIN START TIMES DOWN...SO
WITH THAT IN MIND WE MAY NOT SEE SUB VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...KM/WERT
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...KK/WP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HI PRES CNTRD TO OUR N WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
THIS AFTN...AS NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVES ALONG THE WRN
SECTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. N/NE WINDS OVR THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. HI CLDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACRS THE CWA...DUE TO SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
SYSTEM. SO...GENERALLY A PRTLY SNY AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OFF FAIRLY LIGHT
AT FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF
MAIN SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.

PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD DESPITE WDSPRD CI OVRSPRDG RGN FROM
SW. LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND
CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.

LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG/CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR/LSA
MARINE...MPR/LSA

000
FXUS61 KLWX 211450
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
950 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE UP COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY...THOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE JETSTREAM REMAINS SPLIT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH
IS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
LOCATED OVER TEXAS IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAS ALLOWED FOR HIGH
CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STRATO CU DECK HAS
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE DRY SLOT WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS LOCATED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE STRATO CU DECK WILL HANG ON THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS
SHOULD BE NEAR CLIMO...IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...BUT 40S IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS DECK IN THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT A
BIT BY THE EVENING...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...FLOW BECOMES NELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS IN THE REGION
DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL CLOUD
BANK ROLLS N-WARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WITH MORE SUN NRN
ZONES...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY COULD BE THE INVERSE OF NORMAL WITH WARMEST
/AROUND 60F/ LOCALES IN HARFORD/BALTIMORE AND COOLER /MID 50S/
NELSON/ALBEMARLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PUSHES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PUSHES EAST OF HATTERAS...BRINGING ELY FLOW/CAD TO THE AREA.
HAVING ALREADY MOISTENED...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. SHOULD BE QUITE CLOUDY WITH SOME
RAIN...EXPECT LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MINS MID 40S...MAXES MID 50S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
WEST TO BREAK CAD WITH SWLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /DID INCREASE
POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA DUE TO EXTENDED
CAD/. WARMING TREND TUE /UPPER 50S/ TO WED /AROUND 60F/ AHEAD OF
FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THANKSGIVING...S/W LOBE/S/ FROM THE LOW TO BRING ONE
OR MORE COLD FRONTS PASSAGES IN MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND MOUNTAIN WINTRY PRECIP.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS UNCERTAIN OF LOW INTENSITY AND
TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EARLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
IN NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FEEDING GREAT LAKE
MOISTURE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY/GREATER
DISCERNMENT. IF ANYTHING...COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BKN STRATO CU DECK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. THE
STRATO CU DECK WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING WITH PATCHY BR.

ONSHORE NELY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH MOISTENING/PRECIP BEGINNING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. QUANTITY OF PRECIP ASSOCD WITH FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH TIMING LATER
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY CERTAINLY PAY ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/NIGHT BRINGS ABOUT NELY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE
FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING SOME PRECIP AND
COLDER AIR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
LISTEMAA/LASORSA/BAJ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211422
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
922 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS MAY EFFECT TEMPERATURES. THE NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. FOR TONIGHT
THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES SLOWLY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR AREA....WHILE THE TROUGH
OVER TX SLIDES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. QUESTION FOR TONIGHT
IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ? TREND OF MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL REVIEW 12Z RUNS BEFORE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS IN
POPS. DECIDED MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER THIS RUN WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COASTAL REGION. THE 00Z GFS ATTM...IS
DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE CS POURING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE SOME THINNING ACROSS
THE RIVER VALLEYS SO KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS
AND EFFECT ON TEMPS. DURING THE LATE FALL MONTHS THE GFS SEEMS TO DO
A BETTER JOB WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN TERMS OF ITS RH DEPICTION IN THE
UPPER LVLS...AND THE AMOUNT OF OPAQUENESS IS SOMETIMES
UNDERESTIMATED. FOR NOW...WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THINK THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL  GET SHUNTED
EAST...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING IN THE NWRN CWA...ALTHOUGH
NOT IMPRESSED WITH THAT ATTM. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RUN WITH A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR SKY COVER WITH 40-60 PERCENT
COVERAGE. HIGHS AS SUCH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF 50S IN THE MTNS TO LOWER 60S OUT EAST...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

TONIGHT...THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES SLOWLY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR
CWA....WHILE THE TROUGH OVER TX SLIDES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THINKING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS SOUTH OF
OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT THE CHANCE IN THERE
FOR POTENTIAL OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING FURTHER EAST. THE E-SE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT MAY HELP SATURATE THE LOW LVLS OVER THE NC MTNS.
ALL IN ALL...PRETTY DRY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
NORTH BUT INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME EVAP COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH VIRGA IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING SLOWER...DRIER AND KEEPING HEAVIER RAIN
SE OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WAS FORCED TO REDUCE AND
SLOW POPS...HOWEVER DID NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS
MAY PROBABLY AGAIN CHANGE DRASTICALLY. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE MOVES
UP THE COAST ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERING FROM
THE WEST IN ITS WAKE...MAY ALLOW ANOTHER RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP
LATER MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE AM OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT
WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 60F AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE
HANGS ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH THICKNESSES 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING BY MID WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN THESE
SAME AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES...SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO REACH FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

GFS HAS BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED. IT HAS BEEN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN EACH RUN
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOG HAS BEEN SPARSE THANKS TO THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. AS
SUCH SHOULD ONLY SEE A SMALL PERIOD THIS MORNING OF MVFR FOG AT
LWB. OTHERWSIE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CIRRUS/CS CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE IS GOING TO SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA BY TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
LOWERING CIGS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWING THE RAIN START
TIMES DOWN...SO WITH THAT IN MIND WE MAY NOT SEE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...KM/WERT
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP

000
FXUS61 KRNK 211142
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
642 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER THIS RUN WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COASTAL REGION. THE 00Z GFS ATTM...IS
DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE CS POURING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE SOME THINNING ACROSS
THE RIVER VALLEYS SO KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS
AND EFFECT ON TEMPS. DURING THE LATE FALL MONTHS THE GFS SEEMS TO DO
A BETTER JOB WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN TERMS OF ITS RH DEPICTION IN THE
UPPER LVLS...AND THE AMOUNT OF OPAQUENESS IS SOMETIMES
UNDERESTIMATED. FOR NOW...WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THINK THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL  GET SHUNTED
EAST...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING IN THE NWRN CWA...ALTHOUGH
NOT IMPRESSED WITH THAT ATTM. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RUN WITH A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR SKY COVER WITH 40-60 PERCENT
COVERAGE. HIGHS AS SUCH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF 50S IN THE MTNS TO LOWER 60S OUT EAST...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

TONIGHT...THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES SLOWLY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR
CWA....WHILE THE TROUGH OVER TX SLIDES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THINKING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS SOUTH OF
OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT THE CHANCE IN THERE
FOR POTENTIAL OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING FURTHER EAST. THE E-SE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT MAY HELP SATURATE THE LOW LVLS OVER THE NC MTNS.
ALL IN ALL...PRETTY DRY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
NORTH BUT INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME EVAP COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH VIRGA IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING SLOWER...DRIER AND KEEPING HEAVIER RAIN
SE OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WAS FORCED TO REDUCE AND
SLOW POPS...HOWEVER DID NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS
MAY PROBABLY AGAIN CHANGE DRASTICALLY. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE MOVES
UP THE COAST ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERING FROM
THE WEST IN ITS WAKE...MAY ALLOW ANOTHER RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP
LATER MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE AM OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT
WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 60F AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE
HANGS ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH THICKNESSES 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING BY MID WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN THESE
SAME AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES...SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO REACH FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

GFS HAS BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED. IT HAS BEEN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN EACH RUN
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOG HAS BEEN SPARSE THANKS TO THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. AS
SUCH SHOULD ONLY SEE A SMALL PERIOD THIS MORNING OF MVFR FOG AT
LWB. OTHERWSIE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CIRRUS/CS CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE IS GOING TO SLIDE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA BY TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
LOWERING CIGS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED AT THE
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWING THE RAIN START
TIMES DOWN...SO WITH THAT IN MIND WE MAY NOT SEE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KM/WERT
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
630 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SOME VSBYS WILL FALL TO UNDER 2 MILES IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TDY AS
NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. WILL GENERALLY
CALL FOR P/C-P/S SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.

PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD DESPITE WDSPRD CI OVRSPRDG RGN FROM
SW. LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND
CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS DOMINATES.

LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR

000
FXUS61 KLWX 211051
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
551 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE UP COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY...THOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUICK UPDATE FOR SKY COVER EARLY THIS MORNING. STRATUS DECK
AROUND 4 KFT HAS MADE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WILL GO
AHEAD AND BUMP UP THE SKY COVER BETWEEN THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA
AND THE MASON DIXON LINE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.


HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SET
UP ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION...AND BOTH INITIALIZED RATHER WELL. THE NAM DEVELOPS A CUT
OFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHEAR AXIS. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING PRECIP...JUST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

250MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO HANG AROUND MOST OF
TODAY...AT TIMES BECOMING OPAQUE. HAVE OPTED TO GO PARTLY SUNNY FOR
TODAY...RATHER THAN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE NW CWFA
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK.
THICKER CIRRUS COULD LEND TO TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MAV MOS HAS BEEN PERFORMING RATHER WELL...HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS AND BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS DECK IN THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT A
BIT BY THE EVENING...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...FLOW BECOMES NELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS IN THE REGION
DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL CLOUD
BANK ROLLS N-WARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WITH MORE SUN NRN
ZONES...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY COULD BE THE INVERSE OF NORMAL WITH WARMEST
/AROUND 60F/ LOCALES IN HARFORD/BALTIMORE AND COOLER /MID 50S/
NELSON/ALBEMARLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PUSHES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PUSHES EAST OF HATTERAS...BRINGING ELY FLOW/CAD TO THE AREA.
HAVING ALREADY MOISTENED...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. SHOULD BE QUITE CLOUDY WITH SOME
RAIN...EXPECT LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MINS MID 40S...MAXES MID 50S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
WEST TO BREAK CAD WITH SWLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /DID INCREASE
POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA DUE TO EXTENDED
CAD/. WARMING TREND TUE /UPPER 50S/ TO WED /AROUND 60F/ AHEAD OF
FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THANKSGIVING...S/W LOBE/S/ FROM THE LOW TO BRING ONE
OR MORE COLD FRONTS PASSAGES IN MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND MOUNTAIN WINTRY PRECIP.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS UNCERTAIN OF LOW INTENSITY AND
TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EARLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
IN NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FEEDING GREAT LAKE
MOISTURE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY/GREATER
DISCERNMENT. IF ANYTHING...COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP
SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CIGS WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.
SOME LOWER STRATUS HAS SETTLED ACROSS KMRB...IN THE NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW...BUT CIGS ARE AROUND 4 KFT. EXPECT THE CIRRUS CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT TIMES BKN. THE LOWER STRATUS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE...BUT
CIGS BLO 3 KFT ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ONSHORE NELY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH MOISTENING/PRECIP BEGINNING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. QUANTITY OF PRECIP ASSOCD WITH FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH TIMING LATER
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY CERTAINLY PAY ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THOUGHT TONIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/NIGHT BRINGS ABOUT NELY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE
FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING SOME PRECIP AND
COLDER AIR.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...LISTEMAA

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 210856
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
356 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
BECOMES CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO
OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOOK FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING. SOME VSBYS WILL FALL TO UNDER 2 MILES IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TDY AS
NEXT SYSTEM TO EFFECT THE RGN MOVES ALONG THE WRN SECTIONS OF THE
GULF COAST. E/NE WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE UPR
50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION
TODAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM. WILL GENERALLY
CALL FOR P/C-P/S SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE MID/LOW LVLS OF
THE AIRMASS (S-N) OVER THE RGN. PRECIP WILL START OF FAIRLY LIGHT AT
FIRST AS OVERRUNNING DVLPS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
SYSTEM ON SUN. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 50S.

PRECIP CHCS INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. BEST SHOT OF PRECIP ACCUMS OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WILL BE OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS BY MON AFTN OVER THE FAR SE. FOLLOWING CLOSE TO/BUT NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AS SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER UP THE EAST COAST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF -RA/DZ CONTINUE INTO TUE AM BEFORE ENOUGH DRY AIR FILTERS
OUT THE BL LATER IN THE DAY. OVERALL FOR THIS SYSTEM...CRNTLY
LOOKING AT NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH OF PRECIP OVER THE NW AND AROUND
AN INCH OVER THE FAR SE. THIS WILL OCCUR ENOUGH OVER TIME TO KEEP
ANY FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO A MINIMUM WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL
WE HAVE SEEN AS OF LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...RIDGING DEVELOPS EITHER ALONG THE E COAST
(ECMWF) OR WELL OFF THE COAST (GFS). GNLY KEEPING SKIES PTLY
CLOUDY FOR THIS PERIOD WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
TEMPS...HIGHS INTO LWR 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY...GFS/ECMWF BRING NEXT
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH (ALTHOUGH AGAIN W/ MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK). BRING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
FCST...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SLGT CHC FOR SHWRS. FRONT LOOKS TO
PUSH THROUGH BY FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD XCPT FOR SOME MVFR CNDTNS THRU 12Z
IN PTCHY FOG. WENT AHEAD WITH A BKN250 FCST VICE SKC AS SAT LOOP
ALRDY INDCTG PLNTY OF CI APPRCHG FROM SW.

LOW APPRCHS FROM S BY LATE SUN WITH NXT CHC FOR LWR CIGS AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN INTO MON. THE WEATHER IMPROVES AGAIN BY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING ACROSS NC CSTL WTRS...SO WILL END SCA WITH
AM PACKAGE. CNDTNS REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU SUN MORN AS HIGH PRS
DOMINATES.

LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT
WEEK. NE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUN FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE CHES BAY ON S. MEANWHILE...SUSTAINED NE FETCH SLOWLY BUILDS SEAS
TO ARND 5 FT ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS SUN AFTRN AND BEYOND. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THIS SYSTM...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENUF ATTM TO HOIST (MARGINAL) SCA
HEADLINES STARTING SUN AFTRN AND CONTG SUN NITE ACROSS ALL CSTL
WTRS...CURRITUCK SND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. WILL END SCA
HEADLINES LATE SUN NITE (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PRD)...ALTHOUGH LTST
WAVEWATCH HAS SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGHEST TIDES FCSTD MON AM WITH SCND HIGHEST TIDE TUE AM. CRNT FCST
HAS TIDES AT 1 FT OR LESS ABV NRML DRNG THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
HISTORY HAS SHOWN THAT THESE NMBRS NRML INCRS THE CLOSER WE GET TO
THE EVENT. WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TIDAL DEPARTURES APPRCH THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS ERLY NXT WEEK IF CRNT TRACK HOLD TRUE.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCW
NEAR TERM...CCW
SHORT TERM...CCW
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR

000
FXUS61 KRNK 210846 CCA
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER THIS RUN WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COASTAL REGION. THE 00Z GFS ATTM...IS
DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE CS POURING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE SOME THINNING ACROSS
THE RIVER VALLEYS SO KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS
AND EFFECT ON TEMPS. DURING THE LATE FALL MONTHS THE GFS SEEMS TO DO
A BETTER JOB WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN TERMS OF ITS RH DEPICTION IN THE
UPPER LVLS...AND THE AMOUNT OF OPAQUENESS IS SOMETIMES
UNDERESTIMATED. FOR NOW...WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THINK THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL  GET SHUNTED
EAST...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING IN THE NWRN CWA...ALTHOUGH
NOT IMPRESSED WITH THAT ATTM. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RUN WITH A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR SKY COVER WITH 40-60 PERCENT
COVERAGE. HIGHS AS SUCH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF 50S IN THE MTNS TO LOWER 60S OUT EAST...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

TONIGHT...THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES SLOWLY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR
CWA....WHILE THE TROUGH OVER TX SLIDES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THINKING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS SOUTH OF
OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT THE CHANCE IN THERE
FOR POTENTIAL OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING FURTHER EAST. THE E-SE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT MAY HELP SATURATE THE LOW LVLS OVER THE NC MTNS.
ALL IN ALL...PRETTY DRY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
NORTH BUT INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME EVAP COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH VIRGA IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING SLOWER...DRIER AND KEEPING HEAVIER RAIN
SE OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WAS FORCED TO REDUCE AND
SLOW POPS...HOWEVER DID NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS
MAY PROBABLY AGAIN CHANGE DRASTICALLY. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE MOVES
UP THE COAST ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERING FROM
THE WEST IN ITS WAKE...MAY ALLOW ANOTHER RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP
LATER MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE AM OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT
WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 60F AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE
HANGS ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH THICKNESSES 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING BY MID WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN THESE
SAME AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES...SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO REACH FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

GFS HAS BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED. IT HAS BEEN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN EACH RUN
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEPT THE LIFR FOG IN AT LWB AT THE 10Z TIME FRAME...BUT THE DENSER
HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. DAN WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR VSBY THROUGH 12Z SO KEPT THEM PREDOMINANTLY
MVFR AT 5SM.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD BASES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT.
SUNDAY...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH CIGS FALLING BLO 3KFT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD OF -RA OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE IFR/MVFR CIGS...AND VSBYS MAY OBSCURE
THE MTN RIDGES.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP

000
FXUS61 KLWX 210842
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE UP COASTAL
CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY...THOUGH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. NO PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE BASE. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY...AND SET
UP ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE TROUGH
EVOLUTION...AND BOTH INITIALIZED RATHER WELL. THE NAM DEVELOPS A CUT
OFF LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWFA OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
A SHEAR AXIS. NEITHER MODEL IS PRODUCING PRECIP...JUST INCREASED
CLOUDINESS.

250MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE CWFA
EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE CIRRUS TO HANG AROUND MOST OF
TODAY...AT TIMES BECOMING OPAQUE. HAVE OPTED TO GO PARTLY SUNNY FOR
TODAY...RATHER THAN MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE CWFA. THE NW CWFA
SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE BKN/OVC STRATUS DECK.
THICKER CIRRUS COULD LEND TO TEMPS BEING A DEGREE OR SO COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. SINCE THE MAV MOS HAS BEEN PERFORMING RATHER WELL...HAVE
USED THOSE NUMBERS AND BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CIRRUS AND LOWER STRATUS DECK IN THE NW ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT A
BIT BY THE EVENING...HOWEVER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
VERIFY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND HAVE USED FOR
THE OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNDAY...FLOW BECOMES NELY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS. CLOUDS IN THE REGION
DUE TO COASTAL SYSTEM...SO EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL CLOUD
BANK ROLLS N-WARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. WITH MORE SUN NRN
ZONES...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY COULD BE THE INVERSE OF NORMAL WITH WARMEST
/AROUND 60F/ LOCALES IN HARFORD/BALTIMORE AND COOLER /MID 50S/
NELSON/ALBEMARLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PUSHES OFF NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PUSHES EAST OF HATTERAS...BRINGING ELY FLOW/CAD TO THE AREA.
HAVING ALREADY MOISTENED...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH EAST FACING SLOPES HAVING THE GREATEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL DUE TO TOPOGRAPHY. SHOULD BE QUITE CLOUDY WITH SOME
RAIN...EXPECT LOW DIURNAL RANGE...MINS MID 40S...MAXES MID 50S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID
WEST TO BREAK CAD WITH SWLY FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON /DID INCREASE
POPS FOR TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA DUE TO EXTENDED
CAD/. WARMING TREND TUE /UPPER 50S/ TO WED /AROUND 60F/ AHEAD OF
FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THANKSGIVING...S/W LOBE/S/ FROM THE LOW TO BRING ONE
OR MORE COLD FRONTS PASSAGES IN MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR
THE MID ATLANTIC IS UNCERTAIN. COLD AIR DOES LOOK TO FOLLOW THE
FRONT...BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND MOUNTAIN WINTRY PRECIP.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS UNCERTAIN OF LOW INTENSITY AND
TRACK...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR AN EARLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
IN NWLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW FEEDING GREAT LAKE
MOISTURE TO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND POSSIBLY RIDGES FURTHER EAST.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY/GREATER
DISCERNMENT. IF ANYTHING...COOLING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO HELP
SPREAD CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH CIGS WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.
SOME LOWER STRATUS HAS SETTLED ACROSS KMRB...IN THE NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW...BUT CIGS ARE AROUND 4 KFT. EXPECT THE CIRRUS CIGS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AT TIMES BKN. THE LOWER STRATUS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE...BUT
CIGS BLO 3 KFT ARE NOT EXPECTED.

ONSHORE NELY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY...WITH MOISTENING/PRECIP BEGINNING
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ELY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH
IMPROVED AVIATION CONDITIONS. QUANTITY OF PRECIP ASSOCD WITH FRONT
LOOKS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME THOUGH WITH TIMING LATER
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY CERTAINLY PAY ATTENTION TO SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
THOUGHT TONIGHT...WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A COASTAL LOW MOVING UP
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY/NIGHT BRINGS ABOUT NELY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SWLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE OR MORE
FROPAS LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO BRING SOME PRECIP AND
COLDER AIR.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
LISTEMAA/BAJ

000
FXUS61 KRNK 210842
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER THIS RUN WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COASTAL REGION. THE 00Z GFS ATTM...IS
DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE CS POURING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE SOME THINNING AROSS
THE RIVER VALLEYS SO KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS
AND EFFECT ON TEMPS. DURING THE LATE FALL MONTHS THE GFS SEEMS TO DO
A BETTER JOB WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN TERMS OF ITS RH DEPICTION IN THE
UPPER LVLS...AND THE AMOUNT OF OPAQUENESS IS SOMETIMES
UNDERESTIMATED. FOR NOW...WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THINK THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL  GET SHUNTED
EAST...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING IN THE NWRN CWA...ALTHOUGH
NOT IMPRESSED WITH THAT ATTM. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RUN WITH A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR SKY COVER WITH 40-60 PERCENT
COVERAGE. HIGHS AS SUCH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF 50S IN THE MTNS TO LOWER 60S OUT EAST...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

TONIGHT...THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES SLOWLY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR
CWA....WHILE THE TROUGH OVER TX SLIDES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THINKING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS SOUTH OF
OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT THE CHANCE IN THERE
FOR POTENTIAL OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING FURTHER EAST. THE E-SE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT MAY HELP SATURATE THE LOW LVLS OVER THE NC MTNS.
ALL IN ALL...PRETTY DRY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
NORTH BUT INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME EVAP COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH VIRGA IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING SLOWER...DRIER AND KEEPING HEAVIER RAIN
SE OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WAS FORCED TO REDUCE AND
SLOW POPS...HOWEVER DID NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS
MAY PROBABLY AGAIN CHANGE DRASTICALLY. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE MOVES
UP THE COAST ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERING FROM
THE WEST IN ITS WAKE...MAY ALLOW ANOTHER RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP
LATER MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE AM OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT
WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 60F AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE
HANGS ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH THICKNESSES 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING BY MID WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN THESE
SAME AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES...SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO REACH FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

GFS HAS BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED. IT HAS BEEN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN EACH RUN
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEPT THE LIFR FOG IN AT LWB AT THE 10Z TIME FRAME...BUT THE DENSER
HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. DAN WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR VSBY THROUGH 12Z SO KEPT THEM PREDOMINANTLY
MVFR AT 5SM.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD BASES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT.
SUNDAY...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH CIGS FALLING BLO 3KFT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD OF -RA OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE IFR/MVFR CIGS...AND VSBYS MAY OBSCURE
THE MTN RIDGES.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP

000
FXUS61 KRNK 210742
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
242 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL IMPACT OUR
WEATHER SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER THIS RUN WITH THE
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE GULF COASTAL REGION. THE 00Z GFS ATTM...IS
DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE CS POURING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL SHOULD SEE SOME THINNING AROSS
THE RIVER VALLEYS SO KEPT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS
AND EFFECT ON TEMPS. DURING THE LATE FALL MONTHS THE GFS SEEMS TO DO
A BETTER JOB WITH HIGH CLOUDS IN TERMS OF ITS RH DEPICTION IN THE
UPPER LVLS...AND THE AMOUNT OF OPAQUENESS IS SOMETIMES
UNDERESTIMATED. FOR NOW...WITH THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THINK THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL  GET SHUNTED
EAST...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARRIVING IN THE NWRN CWA...ALTHOUGH
NOT IMPRESSED WITH THAT ATTM. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE RUN WITH A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR SKY COVER WITH 40-60 PERCENT
COVERAGE. HIGHS AS SUCH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF 50S IN THE MTNS TO LOWER 60S OUT EAST...CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

TONIGHT...THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES SLOWLY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OCCURRING OVER OUR
CWA....WHILE THE TROUGH OVER TX SLIDES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS THINKING THAT THE RAIN SHIELD STAYS SOUTH OF
OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER...KEPT THE CHANCE IN THERE
FOR POTENTIAL OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING FURTHER EAST. THE E-SE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT MAY HELP SATURATE THE LOW LVLS OVER THE NC MTNS.
ALL IN ALL...PRETTY DRY TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
NORTH BUT INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO MOS...DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND SOME EVAP COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH VIRGA IN THE SOUTH.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT PLACEMENT AND TIMING ISSUES EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-
RANGE MODELS IN HANDLING THE EJECTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT AND FILL AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

NAM AND GEM SLOWEST OF THE MODELS BY ALLOWING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
TO BYPASS BLACKSBURG AREA WELL TO THE NORTH. PASSAGE OF NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AND SUBSEQUENT BUILDING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE SUPPORTS
AMPLIFICATION OF NEW ENGLAND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WEDGES
SOUTHWEST INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND RETARDS NORTHEASTWARD PUSH
OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES.
LATEST RUN OF GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN OF ECMWF A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...BUT PERHAPS A
BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS.

FINAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE MID RANGE
PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE EXTENT OF SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO OCCUR
SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE WAKE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE...EXPECT TO SEE AMPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CANOPY ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH ATMOSPHERE BELOW 600 MILLIBARS
REMAINING QUITE DRY...NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN
ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL LIKELY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS
BY LATE AT NIGHT. AN EARLY DROP OF TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED DUE TO
RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE THIN...TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A FLATTER FALL AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN. EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER WILL PREVENT RAPID INITIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURE...WITH
REDUCTION OCCURRING LATE AT NIGHT IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND
DRIVES TEMPERATURES TOWARD WET BULB VALUES.

TENACIOUS SURFACE WEDGE WILL LIKELY HOLD OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AS WEAK UPSLOPING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING DUE TO
PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE...BEST BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACKSBURG AREA...ALTHOUGH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE RESULTING FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN
STREAM AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE IN/NEAR THE
BLACKSBURG AREA OF CONCERN.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SLOW...AND INCREASING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW THAT
FORECASTED BY MOS GUIDANCE...AND THIS ALREADY WELL DEPICTED IN
CURRENT SET OF GRIDS. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS THOUGH INCREASINGLY SATURATED COLUMN OF ATMOSPHERE
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...
TRENDING DOWNWARDS FURTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD OUR WV COUNTIES.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND RESULTING DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A STRONG WEDGE SITUATION...MOS GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO WARM BY DAY AND CLOSE TO OR A BIT COOL BY NIGHT
CONSIDERING THE VERY COMPRESSED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THAT WILL
BE REALIZED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE
HANGS ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH THICKNESSES 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING BY MID WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN THESE
SAME AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES...SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO REACH FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

GFS HAS BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED. IT HAS BEEN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN EACH RUN
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEPT THE LIFR FOG IN AT LWB AT THE 10Z TIME FRAME...BUT THE DENSER
HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING. DAN WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR VSBY THROUGH 12Z SO KEPT THEM PREDOMINANTLY
MVFR AT 5SM.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD BASES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT.
SUNDAY...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH CIGS FALLING BLO 3KFT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD OF -RA OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE IFR/MVFR CIGS...AND VSBYS MAY OBSCURE
THE MTN RIDGES.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PM/WERT
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP

000
FXUS61 KRNK 210520
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1220 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. RNK AND GSO 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A GOOD INVERSION JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE THEN VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WHICH
WILL KEEP ANY FOG THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT SHALLOW. TEMPERATURES
COOLING OFF ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG OVER THE RIVERS AND LAKES.

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. HAVE CUT BACK ON THE AMOUNT OF FOG OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM ANY
WATER SOURCES. ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURE A COUPLE OF DEGREES UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...A PRECURSOR OF MORE
TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS GULF COAST SYSTEM INCHES
CLOSER. SATURDAYS T-MAX WILL BE DEPENDENT ON OVERALL THICKNESS OF
THE CIRRUS. ATTM THINK CIRRUS WILL BE THIN WITH SUN BLEEDING
THROUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THUS MOS ADVERTISED NUMBERS LOOK
PRETTY GOOD TO ME WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S.

SIGNIFICANT PLACEMENT AND TIMING ISSUES EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-RANGE
MODELS IN HANDLING THE EJECTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED
LOW...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT AND FILL AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

NAM AND GEM SLOWEST OF THE MODELS BY ALLOWING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
TO BYPASS BLACKSBURG AREA WELL TO THE NORTH. PASSAGE OF NORTHERN
STREAM TROF AND SUBSEQUENT BUILDING HEIGHTS IN ITS WAKE SUPPORTS
AMPLIFICATION OF NEW ENGLAND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WEDGES
SOUTHWEST INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND RETARDS NORTHEASTWARD PUSH
OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ADVANCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES.
LATEST RUN OF GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN OF ECMWF A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...BUT PERHAPS A
BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS.

FINAL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND THREAT OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE MID RANGE
PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE EXTENT OF SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO OCCUR
SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN THE WAKE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE...EXPECT TO SEE AMPLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CANOPY ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH ATMOSPHERE BELOW 600 MILLIBARS
REMAINING QUITE DRY...NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN
ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL LIKELY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH
THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS
BY LATE AT NIGHT. AN EARLY DROP OF TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED DUE TO
RADIATIVE COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE INITIALLY QUITE THIN...TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A FLATTER FALL AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN. EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE THICKER CLOUD
COVER WILL PREVENT RAPID INITIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURE...WITH
REDUCTION OCCURRING LATE AT NIGHT IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND
DRIVES TEMPERATURES TOWARD WET BULB VALUES.

TENACIOUS SURFACE WEDGE WILL LIKELY HOLD OVER THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AS WEAK UPSLOPING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING DUE TO
PRECIPITATION BEGINS OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE...BEST BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACKSBURG AREA...ALTHOUGH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE RESULTING FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF NORTHERN
STREAM AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE IN/NEAR THE
BLACKSBURG AREA OF CONCERN.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SLOW...AND INCREASING
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW THAT
FORECASTED BY MOS GUIDANCE...AND THIS ALREADY WELL DEPICTED IN
CURRENT SET OF GRIDS. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION FIELDS THOUGH INCREASINGLY SATURATED COLUMN OF ATMOSPHERE
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGHEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...
TRENDING DOWNWARDS FURTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD OUR WV COUNTIES.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND RESULTING DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...TO BE FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER A STRONG WEDGE SITUATION...MOS GUIDANCE
LIKELY TOO WARM BY DAY AND CLOSE TO OR A BIT COOL BY NIGHT
CONSIDERING THE VERY COMPRESSED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE THAT WILL
BE REALIZED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ECMWF INDICATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE THE SURFACE WEDGE
HANGS ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IT ALSO SUGGESTS A SURFACE AND
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST AND PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. HAVE AT LEAST CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH THICKNESSES 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES
LOWERING BY MID WEEK...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. IN THESE
SAME AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGES...SURFACE LOW TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO REACH FREEZING OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

GFS HAS BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME WITH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE
EXTENDED. IT HAS BEEN FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARD THE ECMWF AS IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN EACH RUN
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. LATE
NIGHT FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT
LIFR FOG IN THE LWB TAF SINCE FOG OFF THE RIVER WILL DRIFT INTO
THE AIRPORT. DAN IS DOWN TO 6SM AND THINK WITH THIN CI/CS THEY
SHOULD BE IN THE 5SM RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR VSBYS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT THREAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CLOUD BASES
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT.
SUNDAY...CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER WITH CIGS FALLING BLO 3KFT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A 12-24 HOUR PERIOD OF -RA OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE IFR/MVFR CIGS...AND VSBYS MAY OBSCURE
THE MTN RIDGES.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PM/WERT
LONG TERM...REB
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP