000
FXUS61 KALY 230529
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1229 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WERE CALM OR NEARLY
SO...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPING AND IN MANY LOCATIONS WERE WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES
OF THE DEWPOINT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS PER LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG. GLENS FALLS
ALREADY DROPPED BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD SHORTLY AFTER 8PM ALTHOUGH
IT HAD IMPROVED TO MVFR. WE EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
TEMPORARY. LOWERED TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON MOST RECENT OBS.

THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING SHOWED A RATHER STRONG INVERSION JUST BELOW
THE 850 HPA LEVEL WITH A TEMPERATURE OF PLUS 1 AT 880 HPA AND
PLUS 6 AT 860. THERE WAS AN ABRUPT DRYING ABOVE THAT LEVEL AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS
MAY FORM IN THE INVERSION OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
VALLEY FOG. MORE GENERAL CLOUDINESS...WHICH COVERED SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.

ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.

WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.

IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A STATUS DECK
EVOLVING AND MIGRATING FROM NEW ENGLAND.  THIS MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE WELL
ENTRENCHED BY SUNRISE.  HOWEVER...PRECEDING THIS MVFR
DECK...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE DOWN TO 1 WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
FOG/BR MAY DEVELOP AND WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE TAFS AS WELL /MORE
SO IN GFL THAN ALB-POU/.

THROUGH MONDAY...THIS STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...PERHAPS
LIFTING TOWARD THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS.  HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE WAVE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES APPROACHES
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN.  IN
FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO DEVELOP AND WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE TAF FORECAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON OVRNT-TUE AM...MVFR...CHC OF LT RAIN/DZ.
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU-FRI...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THRU FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...11

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KALY 230147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
845 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WERE CALM OR NEARLY
SO...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPING AND IN MANY LOCATIONS WERE WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES
OF THE DEWPOINT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS PER LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG. GLENS FALLS
ALREADY DROPPED BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD SHORTLY AFTER 8PM ALTHOUGH
IT HAD IMPROVED TO MVFR. WE EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
TEMPORARY. LOWERED TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON MOST RECENT OBS.

THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING SHOWED A RATHER STRONG INVERSION JUST BELOW
THE 850 HPA LEVEL WITH A TEMPERATURE OF PLUS 1 AT 880 HPA AND
PLUS 6 AT 860. THERE WAS AN ABRUPT DRYING ABOVE THAT LEVEL AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS
MAY FORM IN THE INVERSION OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
VALLEY FOG. MORE GENERAL CLOUDINESS...WHICH COVERED SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.

ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.

WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.

IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVE
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY. WITH T/TD SPREADS LOW AT
KALB/KGFL...AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FORECASTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT IFR FOG AT KGFL AS
EARLY AS 03Z...AND DEF FROM 06Z UNTIL SUNRISE. KALB IS A BIT
TRICKIER...AS WOULD EXPECT MVFR FOG THERE AS EARLY AS 05Z...AND DEF
AFTER 07Z...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL.
IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS AT THAT POINT. MEANWHILE...KPOU EXPERIENCED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTN...SO T/TD SPREAD NOT QUITE AS LARGE THERE. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER NJ...SO WILL ONLY EXPECT MVFR FOG AT WORST THERE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE.

ON MONDAY...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE AT KPOU...WHERE LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARBY THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS THERE. THIS STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...WHICH COULD EVEN LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR THE MON AFTN
HOURS. KGFL SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO REMAIN VFR ALL DAY. IN
ADDITION...SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KPOU BY THE MID
AFTN...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS THERE AS
WELL.

WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...A LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WIND OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 5
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN, MAINLY KPOU.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 230122
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
822 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE MAY SPARK
A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 814 PM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION
AT 01Z RANGED FROM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WITH GENERALLY SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER
HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED...WITH CLEARING NOTED ON 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY
ACROSS FAR WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. WITH CLOUDS HAVING
DISSIPATED...HAVE INCLUDED THE PROSPECT FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. KSLK IS
REPORTING 4SM BR AS OF 01Z. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR
30...NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCO...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AS STRONG 1032
SFC HIGH ACROSS SRN QUEBEC SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
PROBLEMATICAL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO WEAKEN THROUGH TIME PER
LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES...CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM CYUL
SHOWING CAP STILL VERY STRONG WITH TEMPS WARMING AN IMPRESSIVE 15
DEG (28 TO 43 F) IN THE 900-850 MB LYR. WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN
10KT THROUGH THE 10 KFT LYR OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT
ALL TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF BKN/OVC STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN...ESP
NORTHERN VT/NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE
AT THIS TIME...SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DUE TO CURRENT DEGREE OF CLEARING ACROSS
ERN VT...FEEL TEMPS HERE WILL FALL THE QUICKEST THIS
EVENING...LIKELY LEADING TO PATCHY BR/FG FORMATION IN THESE LOCNS.
OTW WITH TD VALUES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 30S AND LACK OF
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES BY MONDAY AS LL FLOW SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TIME. WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF RIDGE HOLDS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES HOWEVER...SO STILL LOOKING AT A NICE DAY ON
TAP DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OF MARITIME ORIGIN CREEPING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF VT BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN VERY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS WHERE SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
MAY OCCUR.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS THEN CREEP INTO THE FCST BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES
OFFSHORE NEAR THE BENCHMARK. NAM/GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE THE MORE
AGRESSIVE OF THE GROUP BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN NORTHWARD
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MEMBER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
KEEPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
AND HOLDING PRIMARY PCPN SOUTH. THUS WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS
QPF SOLN HERE AND WHILE OFFERING A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...KEEP ANY CHCS FOR LIGHT PCPN CONFINED TO THE
SRN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER HAVE LEANED MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MINS ACCORDINGLY.

BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANY CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MEAN THOUGH NARROW SFC TO
MID LVL RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED MOS SOLN
FOR TEMPS HERE AS SOME DISPARITIES ON CLOUD COVER APPARENT HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. GRIDDED MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE GONE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE ABOVE GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS INDICATE GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW.

THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
BEEN LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE FINALLY BEGUN
TO ERODE...AND EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BUFKIT INDICATES THE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST 36 HOURS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT/KMSS WILL JUST SEE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. KMPV AND KSLK MEANWHILE WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AROUND 1500
FT AND VISIBILITY OF 3SM CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE SITES. MOST SITES
WILL HAVE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AT KRUT
AND KMPV AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT....THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-8 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222338
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE MAY SPARK
A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AS
STRONG 1032 SFC HIGH ACROSS SRN QUEBEC SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. PROBLEMATICAL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TIME PER LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES...CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM
CYUL SHOWING CAP STILL VERY STRONG WITH TEMPS WARMING AN IMPRESSIVE
15 DEG (28 TO 43 F) IN THE 900-850 MB LYR. WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT THROUGH THE 10 KFT LYR OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
AT ALL TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF BKN/OVC STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN...ESP
NORTHERN VT/NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AT
THIS TIME...SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DUE TO CURRENT DEGREE OF CLEARING ACROSS ERN
VT...FEEL TEMPS HERE WILL FALL THE QUICKEST THIS EVENING...LIKELY
LEADING TO PATCHY BR/FG FORMATION IN THESE LOCNS. OTW WITH TD
VALUES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 30S AND LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES BY MONDAY AS LL FLOW SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TIME. WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF RIDGE HOLDS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES HOWEVER...SO STILL LOOKING AT A NICE DAY ON
TAP DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OF MARITIME ORIGIN CREEPING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF VT BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN VERY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS WHERE SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
MAY OCCUR.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS THEN CREEP INTO THE FCST BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES
OFFSHORE NEAR THE BENCHMARK. NAM/GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE THE MORE
AGRESSIVE OF THE GROUP BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN NORTHWARD
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MEMBER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
KEEPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
AND HOLDING PRIMARY PCPN SOUTH. THUS WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS
QPF SOLN HERE AND WHILE OFFERING A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...KEEP ANY CHCS FOR LIGHT PCPN CONFINED TO THE
SRN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER HAVE LEANED MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MINS ACCORDINGLY.

BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANY CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MEAN THOUGH NARROW SFC TO
MID LVL RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED MOS SOLN
FOR TEMPS HERE AS SOME DISPARITIES ON CLOUD COVER APPARENT HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. GRIDDED MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE GONE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE ABOVE GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS INDICATE GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW.

THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
BEEN LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE FINALLY BEGUN
TO ERODE...AND EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BUFKIT INDICATES THE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST 36 HOURS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT/KMSS WILL JUST SEE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. KMPV AND KSLK MEANWHILE WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AROUND 1500
FT AND VISIBILITY OF 3SM CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE SITES. MOST SITES
WILL HAVE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AT KRUT
AND KMPV AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT....THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-8 KNOTS MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 222336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS BULK OF FA AND EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWS IN MOST AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF LAST
NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP TO
NEAR DEWPOINT AND HAVE THUS PLACED FOG IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.

ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.

WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.

IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVE
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY. WITH T/TD SPREADS LOW AT
KALB/KGFL...AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FORECASTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT IFR FOG AT KGFL AS
EARLY AS 03Z...AND DEF FROM 06Z UNTIL SUNRISE. KALB IS A BIT
TRICKIER...AS WOULD EXPECT MVFR FOG THERE AS EARLY AS 05Z...AND DEF
AFTER 07Z...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL.
IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS AT THAT POINT. MEANWHILE...KPOU EXPERIENCED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTN...SO T/TD SPREAD NOT QUITE AS LARGE THERE. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER NJ...SO WILL ONLY EXPECT MVFR FOG AT WORST THERE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE.

ON MONDAY...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE AT KPOU...WHERE LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARBY THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS THERE. THIS STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...WHICH COULD EVEN LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR THE MON AFTN
HOURS. KGFL SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO REMAIN VFR ALL DAY. IN
ADDITION...SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KPOU BY THE MID
AFTN...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS THERE AS
WELL.

WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...A LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WIND OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 5
KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN, MAINLY KPOU.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KALY 222108
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS BULK OF FA AND EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWS IN MOST AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF LAST
NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP TO
NEAR DEWPOINT AND HAVE THUS PLACED FOG IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.

ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.

WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.

BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.

BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.

IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE
CLEARING LINE TRENDING TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED
BY 22-23Z AT KGFL AND KALB...BUT BECOME SCATTERED AT POU BY 19Z.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED...THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NO CEILING. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE BORDERLINE
IFR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL HAVE MORE DATA TO EVALUATE THE
FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED IN TAFS FOR
TONIGHT..STAY TUNED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST...AT
10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE...AND CLOUDS WILL
REFORM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. SO..BETWEEN
10-14Z...MVFR CEILING WILL DEVELOP AT POU...WHILE VFR CEILING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS KALB AND KGF TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 222035
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE MAY SPARK
A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AS
STRONG 1032 SFC HIGH ACROSS SRN QUEBEC SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. PROBLEMATICAL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TIME PER LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES...CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM
CYUL SHOWING CAP STILL VERY STRONG WITH TEMPS WARMING AN IMPRESSIVE
15 DEG (28 TO 43 F) IN THE 900-850 MB LYR. WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT THROUGH THE 10 KFT LYR OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
AT ALL TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF BKN/OVC STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN...ESP
NORTHERN VT/NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AT
THIS TIME...SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DUE TO CURRENT DEGREE OF CLEARING ACROSS ERN
VT...FEEL TEMPS HERE WILL FALL THE QUICKEST THIS EVENING...LIKELY
LEADING TO PATCHY BR/FG FORMATION IN THESE LOCNS. OTW WITH TD
VALUES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 30S AND LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES BY MONDAY AS LL FLOW SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TIME. WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF RIDGE HOLDS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES HOWEVER...SO STILL LOOKING AT A NICE DAY ON
TAP DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OF MARITIME ORIGIN CREEPING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF VT BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN VERY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS WHERE SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
MAY OCCUR.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS THEN CREEP INTO THE FCST BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES
OFFSHORE NEAR THE BENCHMARK. NAM/GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE THE MORE
AGRESSIVE OF THE GROUP BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN NORTHWARD
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MEMBER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
KEEPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
AND HOLDING PRIMARY PCPN SOUTH. THUS WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS
QPF SOLN HERE AND WHILE OFFERING A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...KEEP ANY CHCS FOR LIGHT PCPN CONFINED TO THE
SRN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER HAVE LEANED MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MINS ACCORDINGLY.

BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANY CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MEAN THOUGH NARROW SFC TO
MID LVL RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED MOS SOLN
FOR TEMPS HERE AS SOME DISPARITIES ON CLOUD COVER APPARENT HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. GRIDDED MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE GONE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE ABOVE GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS INDICATE GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW.

THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT...WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE
HANGING IN FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AS THESE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10000 FEET. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AREA WILL AGAIN BE UNDER A LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECTING ANY AREAS THAT
HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE A STRATUS DECK
REFORM OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE BECOME MVFR/VFR BY 16Z
MONDAY...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY MVFR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY
MAINLY VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

MAINLY IFR IN RAIN ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH UP
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221900
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE MAY SPARK
A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AS
STRONG 1032 SFC HIGH ACROSS SRN QUEBEC SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. PROBLEMATICAL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TIME PER LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES...CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM
CYUL SHOWING CAP STILL VERY STRONG WITH TEMPS WARMING AN IMPRESSIVE
15 DEG (28 TO 43 F) IN THE 900-850 MB LYR. WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT THROUGH THE 10 KFT LYR OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
AT ALL TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF BKN/OVC STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN...ESP
NORTHERN VT/NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AT
THIS TIME...SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DUE TO CURRENT DEGREE OF CLEARING ACROSS ERN
VT...FEEL TEMPS HERE WILL FALL THE QUICKEST THIS EVENING...LIKELY
LEADING TO PATCHY BR/FG FORMATION IN THESE LOCNS. OTW WITH TD
VALUES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 30S AND LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES BY MONDAY AS LL FLOW SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TIME. WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF RIDGE HOLDS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES HOWEVER...SO STILL LOOKING AT A NICE DAY ON
TAP DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OF MARITIME ORIGIN CREEPING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF VT BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN VERY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE  WRN DACKS WHERE SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT MAY OCCUR.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS THEN CREEP INTO THE FCST BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES
OFFSHORE NEAR THE BENCHMARK. NAM/GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE THE MORE
AGRESSIVE OF THE GROUP BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN NORTHWARD
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MEMBER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
KEEPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
AND HOLDING PRIMARY PCPN SOUTH. THUS WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS
QPF SOLN HERE AND WHILE OFFERING A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...KEEP ANY CHCS FOR LIGHT PCPN CONFINED TO THE
SRN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER HAVE LEANED MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MINS ACCORDINGLY.

BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANY CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MEAN THOUGH NARROW SFC TO
MID LVL RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED MOS SOLN
FOR TEMPS HERE AS SOME DISPARITIES ON CLOUD COVER APPARENT HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT...WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE
HANGING IN FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AS THESE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10000 FEET. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE AREA WILL AGAIN BE UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECTING ANY AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY SEE A STRATUS DECK REFORM OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME LOCAL IFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE BECOME
MVFR/VFR BY 16Z MONDAY...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY MVFR ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY
     MAINLY VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

MAINLY IFR IN RAIN ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH UP
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221813
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM EST SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST FCST TOWARDS LATEST SKY COVER TRENDS.
REALITY CHECK THIS MORNING THAT YES...HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IS OFTEN THE NORM AND NOT THE EXCEPTION THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXAMINATION OF VIS SAT SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH AND ONLY SLOWLY
BURN OFF AS LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK INSOLATION WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX
OUT LOWER LEVELS. COMPOUNDING THE CLEARING ISSUE IS WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH 12Z ALB SOUNDING AND CURRENT ACARS DATA
FROM CYUL SHOWING IMPRESSIVE 11F SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 900-850
MB. CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE GIVEN A CAP OF THIS STRENGTH
     THOUGH WILL AT LEAST LEAN ON THE SIDE OF OPTIMISM AND LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING PARTIAL CLEARING MOST AREAS BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WITH GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
EASED TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM EARLIER THINKING...MAINLY IN
THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND OTHER THAN
ABOVE ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EST SUNDAY...
ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK
UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG
AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/
SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS.
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS
OF TAP FOR THE CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS
MORNING...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT...WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE
HANGING IN FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AS THESE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10000 FEET. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE AREA WILL AGAIN BE UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECTING ANY AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY SEE A STRATUS DECK REFORM OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME LOCAL IFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE BECOME
MVFR/VFR BY 16Z MONDAY...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY MVFR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY
...MAINLY VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

MAINLY IFR IN RAIN ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH UP
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...AND
CLOUD COVER EXTENDS FROM THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER WESTWARD
ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA. BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...AND
LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME SLIGHT EROSION SEEN IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND PERHAPS SLOWLY BUILDING WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN LIKELY FROM PSF TO AQW AND DDH...RIGHT ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE
REGION TOWARD AND THROUGH THE EVENING...SO ACKNOWLEDGING SOME
BETTER EROSION TO THE CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET. NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WAS EXPANDED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...

MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE
CLEARING LINE TRENDING TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED
BY 22-23Z AT KGFL AND KALB...BUT BECOME SCATTERED AT POU BY 19Z.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED...THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NO CEILING. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE BORDERLINE
OFR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

HOWEVER...NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL HAVE MORE DATA TO EVALUATE THE
FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED IN TAFS FOR
TONIGHT..STAY TUNED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST...AT
10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE...AND CLOUDS WILL
REFORM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. SO..BETWEEN
10-14Z...MVFR CEILING WILL DEVELOP AT POU...WHILE VFR CEILING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS KALB AND KGF TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 221543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...AND
CLOUD COVER EXTENDS FROM THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER WESTWARD
ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA. BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...AND
LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME SLIGHT EROSION SEEN IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND PERHAPS SLOWLY BUILDING WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN LIKELY FROM PSF TO AQW AND DDH...RIGHT ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE
REGION TOWARD AND THROUGH THE EVENING...SO ACKNOWLEDGING SOME
BETTER EROSION TO THE CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET. NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WAS EXPANDED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...

MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB. WE EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING/ERODING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BENEATH THIS DECK...ESP AT KGFL...PRIOR TO 15Z...AND HAVE
INDICATED A TEMPO AT KGFL DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD...UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER 08Z/MON. WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPOU...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME RANGE TO KEEP LOW MVFR AT KPOU.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 5-10 KT TODAY.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221400
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
900 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM EST SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST FCST TOWARDS LATEST SKY COVER TRENDS.
REALITY CHECK THIS MORNING THAT YES...HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IS OFTEN THE NORM AND NOT THE EXCEPTION THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXAMINATION OF VIS SAT SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH AND ONLY SLOWLY
BURN OFF AS LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK INSOLATION WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX
OUT LOWER LEVELS. COMPOUNDING THE CLEARING ISSUE IS WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH 12Z ALB SOUNDING AND CURRENT ACARS DATA
FROM CYUL SHOWING IMPRESSIVE 11F SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 900-850
MB. CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE GIVEN A CAP OF THIS STRENGTH
...THOUGH WILL AT LEAST LEAN ON THE SIDE OF OPTIMISM AND LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING PARTIAL CLEARING MOST AREAS BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WITH GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
EASED TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM EARLIER THINKING...MAINLY IN
THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND OTHER THAN
ABOVE ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM. ENJOY YOUR DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EST SUNDAY...
ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK
UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG
AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/
SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS.
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS
OF TAP FOR THE CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS
MORNING...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS
MORNING BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z WITH MTNS OBSCURED. EXCEPTION
IS IFR THIS MORNING AT KRUT WITH BR...WILL BECOME MVFR BY 14-15Z
AND VFR AFTER 16Z. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 20Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 6KT. LATER
TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z...RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
IN SE VT AND SE DACKS...AIDING IN LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR IN
GREENS AND DACKS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN THE AM IN SE VT...OTHERWISE
VFR...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WED. DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KBTV 221250
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER
FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/ SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY
LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS OF TAP FOR THE
CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM SFC LOW OFF
THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS MORNING...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS
MORNING BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z WITH MTNS OBSCURED. EXCEPTION
IS IFR THIS MORNING AT KRUT WITH BR...WILL BECOME MVFR BY 14-15Z
AND VFR AFTER 16Z. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 20Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 6KT. LATER
TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z...RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
IN SE VT AND SE DACKS...AIDING IN LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR IN
GREENS AND DACKS.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN THE AM IN SE VT...OTHERWISE
VFR...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WED. DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 221128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB. WE EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING/ERODING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BENEATH THIS DECK...ESP AT KGFL...PRIOR TO 15Z...AND HAVE
INDICATED A TEMPO AT KGFL DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD...UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER 08Z/MON. WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPOU...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME RANGE TO KEEP LOW MVFR AT KPOU.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 5-10 KT TODAY.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220931
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER
FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/ SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY
LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS OF TAP FOR THE
CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM SFC LOW OFF
THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS MORNING...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220905
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER
FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/ SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY
LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS OF TAP FOR THE
CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM SFC LOW OFF
THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS MORNING...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 220825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9
IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220821
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PERIOD
STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN FM
MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH DOMINATES
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.

THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).

WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.

THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.

IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.

&&

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. TRICKY
CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER STRATUS
DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9 IR
SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220644
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN
FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH
DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER
THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220622
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM EST SATURDAY...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT LAYER OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT AGL. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND MUCH OF ERN/SERN VT...OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ELIMINATE EXISTING
CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HRS...WITH A SLOW
DECREASING TREND TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS NRN NY
OWING TO OVC SKIES...BUT ELSEWHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL
/WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S/ AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH LONG MID-NOVEMEBER NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD BY LATE NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 220532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220307
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 220157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
857 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM EST SATURDAY...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT LAYER OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT AGL. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND MUCH OF ERN/SERN VT...OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ELIMINATE EXISTING
CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HRS...WITH A SLOW
DECREASING TREND TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS NRN NY
OWING TO OVC SKIES...BUT ELSEWHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL
/WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S/ AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH LONG MID-NOVEMEBER NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD BY LATE NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WHICH HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AT MOST SITES ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1500-2500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH KSLK WILL DROP
BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 SM
WITH 2 SM AT KMPV. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 08Z-12Z.
THEREAFTER EXPECT FOG AND CEILINGS TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL
SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB

000
FXUS61 KALY 220014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. WILL BE MAKING SOME
MINOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA
OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...LAKES ONTARIO AND
ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212333
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY
WX. ONLY PROBLEMATICAL QUESTION IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
LONG PESKY LL STRATOCUMULUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT ACARS DATA OUT OF MONTREAL (CYUL) CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE THOUGH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MANY AREAS TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
BR/FG. WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT BY LATE
NOVEMBER STANDARDS ...BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION HAS
ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR IN SOME AREAS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS WHICH HAS KEPT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AT MOST SITES ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1500-2500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH KSLK WILL DROP
BELOW 1000 FT LATE TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 SM
WITH 2 SM AT KMPV. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 08Z-12Z.
THEREAFTER EXPECT FOG AND CEILINGS TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL
SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB

000
FXUS61 KBTV 212045
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY
WX. ONLY PROBLEMATICAL QUESTION IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
LONG PESKY LL STRATOCUMULUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT ACARS DATA OUT OF MONTREAL (CYUL) CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE THOUGH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MANY AREAS TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
BR/FG. WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT BY LATE
NOVEMBER STANDARDS ...BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND MIST
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. ANY FOG OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z
SUNDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 211946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211917
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
217 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...QUIET CONDS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT AS BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH DRY
WX. ONLY PROBLEMATICAL QUESTION IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
LONG PESKY LL STRATOCUMULUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. CURRENT ACARS DATA OUT OF MONTREAL (CYUL) CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERY SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 900 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE THOUGH WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MANY AREAS TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD IDEA OF SOME BRIEF CLEARING EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MORE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
BR/FG. WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT WINDS AND OVERALL LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES...MIN TEMPS WILL HOLD FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT BY LATE
NOVEMBER STANDARDS ...BOTTOMING OUT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S MOST LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND MIST
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. ANY FOG OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z
SUNDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 211829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211814
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
114 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 941 AM EST SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE TODAY AND TONIGHT
PERIOD...MAINLY TO REFLECT MUCH SLOWER EROSION OF PESKY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM CYUL THIS MORNING SHOWING
IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LL INVERSION NEAR 900 MB...WHICH IS ACTING TO
TRAP RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
OROGRAPHICALLY...ALBEIT LIGHT NORHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...HARD TO DISAGREE W/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FCSTS
SHOWING LL STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESP IN THE
NORTHERN MTNS. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC CHCS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY IN THESE AREAS. SOME PEEKS OF SUN MORE LIKELY BY
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SC VT. BY
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY THIN/ERODE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. REST OF FCST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE IN REGARD TO WIND/TEMPS...SO OTHER THAN SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS NOTED ABOVE NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST. EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA BFR BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LEFT OVER FOR MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE
CONSTRAINED FROM EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP W/RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED THIS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MVFR
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION. EXPECTING SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...EXCEPT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND PORTIONS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING SOME FOG AND MIST
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 05Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS
...AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
ANY FOG OR MVFR CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUNDAY...WITH SKIES BECOMING
MAINLY CLEAR.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FROM 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH

000
FXUS61 KALY 211736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL AT
ALB AND GFL AS MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU...SO
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AT BEST. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AT 10 KT OR LESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN...AND BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...CLEARING WILL BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD BE AROUND 04Z AT GFL...AND 06Z AT KALB.
ONCE THE SKY SLEARS...AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY AROUND KGFL...THROUGH SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM...BUT IN SOME AREAS LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED-THU...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 211555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1055 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
941 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 941 AM EST SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THE TODAY AND TONIGHT
PERIOD...MAINLY TO REFLECT MUCH SLOWER EROSION OF PESKY CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM CYUL THIS MORNING SHOWING
IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC LL INVERSION NEAR 900 MB...WHICH IS ACTING TO
TRAP RESIDUAL LL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH
OROGRAPHICALLY...ALBEIT LIGHT NORHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS
OUR AREA TODAY...HARD TO DISAGREE W/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FCSTS
SHOWING LL STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY...ESP IN THE
NORTHERN MTNS. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR MORE PESSIMISTIC CHCS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY IN THESE AREAS. SOME PEEKS OF SUN MORE LIKELY BY
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SC VT. BY
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY THIN/ERODE AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEEP LAYER DRYING CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. REST OF FCST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE IN REGARD TO WIND/TEMPS...SO OTHER THAN SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS NOTED ABOVE NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST. EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA BFR BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE LEFT OVER FOR MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE
CONSTRAINED FROM EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS
TO DROP W/RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
AROUND 18Z...IMPROVING TO VFR EVENTUALLY SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z. SOME AREAS
OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER THIS MORNING...NOTABLY
AT KMPV...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY 14Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT
PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN TERRAINE OF SE VT TUE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 211206
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
706 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER
BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE
WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BFR
BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR
MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE CONSTRAINED FROM
EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP W/
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
AROUND 18Z...IMPROVING TO VFR EVENTUALLY SCT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH 18Z. SOME AREAS
OF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER THIS MORNING...NOTABLY
AT KMPV...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY 14Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE W TO
NW AROUND 10 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT
PRONE LOCATIONS LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN TERRAINE OF SE VT TUE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 211119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210957
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
457 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER
BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE
WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BFR
BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR
MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE CONSTRAINED FROM
EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP W/
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES
UP THE ATLANTIC COAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN ZONES
INCREASES MON NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN VT AND
EVEN CENTRAL/EASTERN DACKS TUESDAY. FOR MID WEEK THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT OF GUIDANCE WITH HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
OVER THE HEARTLAND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...WITH THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT
BETWEEN THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW AND PACIFIC ENERGY THAT ENTERS THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE GFS OFFERS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION...THOUGH HAS BEEN MUCH MORE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE ECMWF`S LESS PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THEREFORE FAVORED. UNDER THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IS MARKEDLY LESS THAN MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES...AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE HOLIDAY...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BOTH ALSO BRING THE FIRST TRUE
SEASONAL AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES AND THUS
PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AIR...HAVE MAINTAINED THE RAIN/SNOW
FORECAST...EXCEPT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHICH SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.


&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KALY 210908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z/SAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN 06Z/SAT TAF ISSUANCE.

SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/SUN AT KGFL DUE TO
GROUND FOG FORMATION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210812
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
312 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
THE REGION TUESDAY...AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
PINWHEEL DOWN ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING...AS LL CLD COVER
BLANKETS THE CWA. THIS EXITING LOW OVER THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE
WAY TO BROAD SFC RIDGE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST.
EXPECTING INVERSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. AS A RESULT...LL CLDS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BFR
BREAKING LATE IN THE DAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT OVER FOR
MENTION OF --RW OVER HIR TRRN. TEMPS WILL BE CONSTRAINED FROM
EXTENSIVE CLDS...SO HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS...SKIES WILL CLR OUT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP W/
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EST SATURDAY...NICE WX CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION. INVERSION WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
DURING SUNDAY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN LATEST 850 TEMPS THAT WORK UP
AND OVER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN GREAT LKS REGION...AND DOWN UPON THE
NORTHEAST. DIFF IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES SO WILL ONLY ETCH UP HIR
ELEV...MAINLY IN NNY...HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY THAN IN ADJACENT
VALLEY LOCALES. SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CLRING SKIES OVERNGT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT LESS THAN PREVIOUS NGT. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TOWARDS MORNING. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO REST OF CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CLDS ON THE
INCR MONDAY AS LOW WORKS UP ALONG SE COAST. RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE NE WILL KEEP SYSTEM AT BAY FOR MONDAY...W/ ONLY SOUTHERN ZONES
SEEING SL CHANCE FOR --RW ON NORTHERN EDGE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/RJS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 210635
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
135 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ENDING.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY
HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WHERE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ATOP THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY FAIR
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 925 PM EST FRIDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING...MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DENSE CLOUD COVER WELL UPSTREAM INTO ONTARIO...SO ALSO
UPPED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY IN ALL AREAS. MUCH OF
THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING...BUT
STILL A FEW RETURNS APPEARING ON RADAR. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
STILL IN THE VICINITY AND WINDS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN GREENS...KEPT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...REMOVED MENTION OF SNOW FROM THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AS THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD PROHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
SWINGING BY NORTH OF CYUL THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN THROUGH TIME...THOUGH WITH PASSG OF UPPER
500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL CONTINUE WITH AT
LEAST CHC POPS FOR OUR NRN MTNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED AS WELL
MIXED BNDRY LYR COMBINED WITH MEAN WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT SHOULD
ENSURE COMPRESSIONAL/DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. TEMPS FAIRLY UNIFORM
GIVEN ONLY MARGINAL COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESSES AND AT LEAST A
DECENT DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. THUS STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE HERE... OFFERING MINS GENERALLY FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EST FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. CLOUDS MAY PROVE A TAD SLUGGISH TO
DEPART NRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY FLATTENS...OTW EXPECT SKIES TO
TREND MAINLY CLR BY SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE OFFERED MAX TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV
SEASONAL NORMS HERE BASED OFF 925 MB TEMPS AND THE EXPECTED CLEARING
TREND...THOUGH HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS AS RADIATIVE EFFECTS DOMINATE UNDER LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH NO PCPN...INCREASING
SUNSHINE...AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY THE GFS MODEL TAKES A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THEN BRING THIS LOW INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS
KEEP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MODEL KEEPING THIS HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS LOW. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST
SOLUTION AND WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THIS MODEL KEEPS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION.

ON THANKSGIVING DAY...12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS MODEL COLDER THEN THE ECMWF THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF MODEL MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS AND
IMPLIES MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY... WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

HAVE GONE LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR AT KSLK. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING
SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF SURFACE WIND
GUSTS OF 20 KTS OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 08Z. WINDS
WILL BE W TO NW AROUND 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY...DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM AFTER 05Z SUNDAY AT PRONE LOCATIONS
LIKE KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR VIS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR VIS POSSLIBLE AT KMPV
AND KSLK WITH BR THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/MB
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/RJS