000
FXUS61 KRLX 230533
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1222 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS UP N ARE EXODUS...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
ARRIVING FROM THE S IN RESPONSE TO S/W FEATURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
NAM AND ECMWF BEAT GFS AND UKMET ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL TAKE MOST OF ITS DYNAMICS S AND E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MON.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT AND MON IS UPSLOPE SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING.

FARTHER W...FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING AND FORCING IS MUCH LESS EVEN THOUGH
THE COLUMN IS ALMOST AS SATURATED.  SREF STILL SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OHIO IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN VORT LOBE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W FEATURE.

INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS PACKAGE IN GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING GULF AND THEN SE COASTS.  THIS
SET UP WEAKENS LATE MON AS NEW ENGLAND HIGH IS EXODUS AND LOW IS E
OF THE AREA OFF MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

NO IMPORTANT DEVIATIONS FROM MOS ANTICIPATED ON LOWS TONIGHT NOR
HIGHS MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK H5 VORT MAX REACHING THE AREA
BY TUE 00Z...UNDER A DESCENT MOISTURE LAYER UP TO H7. THEREFORE...BY
00Z TUE...BULK OF PCPN PROBABLY MOVING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE PCPN MOVES
NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. WITH LESS FORCING AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW
UP TO H8 BY TUE EVENING...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

BY WED...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER MI. MODELS SOLUTIONS
SEEMS SPLIT ON THE WED 12Z LOWS CENTER WITH THE NAM/ECMWF BEEN A BIT
WEST WHEN COMPARED WITH THE GFS/GEM POSITIONS. HOWEVER...THE GEM AND
GFS SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
WV BY THE SAME TIME. THIS FEATURE COULD BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ATTM...WITH
VERY LOW BUOYANCY IF ANY...AND PW UNDER ONE INCH...KEPT THUNDER OUT
FOR WED.

ALMOST IDENTICAL BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE SREF AND GMOS FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NOTICED TUE AND WED MORNING...WHICH RESULTED
INTO A BLEND FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S. MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TUE...AND
FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WED AS H5 TEMPS DROP 3-4 DEGREES ACCORDING TO
THE SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION PRODUCING A BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LIMITING RESTRICTIONS
HOWEVER...WITH JUST MVFR AT WORSE DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...A STRATUS DECK
WILL BE FORMING. THIS WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH VFR ON THE WESTERN SLOPES...AND VFR
OR MVFR IN KENTUCKY AND OHIO TODAY. THESE CLOUD CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY

000
FXUS61 KRLX 222350
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS UP N ARE EXODUS...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
ARRIVING FROM THE S IN RESPONSE TO S/W FEATURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
NAM AND ECMWF BEAT GFS AND UKMET ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL TAKE MOST OF ITS DYNAMICS S AND E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MON.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT AND MON IS UPSLOPE SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING.

FARTHER W...FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING AND FORCING IS MUCH LESS EVEN THOUGH
THE COLUMN IS ALMOST AS SATURATED.  SREF STILL SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OHIO IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN VORT LOBE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W FEATURE.

INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS PACKAGE IN GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING GULF AND THEN SE COASTS.  THIS
SET UP WEAKENS LATE MON AS NEW ENGLAND HIGH IS EXODUS AND LOW IS E
OF THE AREA OFF MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

NO IMPORTANT DEVIATIONS FROM MOS ANTICIPATED ON LOWS TONIGHT NOR
HIGHS MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK H5 VORT MAX REACHING THE AREA
BY TUE 00Z...UNDER A DESCENT MOISTURE LAYER UP TO H7. THEREFORE...BY
00Z TUE...BULK OF PCPN PROBABLY MOVING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE PCPN MOVES
NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. WITH LESS FORCING AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW
UP TO H8 BY TUE EVENING...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

BY WED...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER MI. MODELS SOLUTIONS
SEEMS SPLIT ON THE WED 12Z LOWS CENTER WITH THE NAM/ECMWF BEEN A BIT
WEST WHEN COMPARED WITH THE GFS/GEM POSITIONS. HOWEVER...THE GEM AND
GFS SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
WV BY THE SAME TIME. THIS FEATURE COULD BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ATTM...WITH
VERY LOW BUOYANCY IF ANY...AND PW UNDER ONE INCH...KEPT THUNDER OUT
FOR WED.

ALMOST IDENTICAL BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE SREF AND GMOS FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NOTICED TUE AND WED MORNING...WHICH RESULTED
INTO A BLEND FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S. MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TUE...AND
FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WED AS H5 TEMPS DROP 3-4 DEGREES ACCORDING TO
THE SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES...ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE
TOP DOWN...AND WILL SEE GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT. WILL
END UP A MVFR GENERALLY BEYOND 10Z GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH BKW AS IT MAY DROP TO IFR...AND THIS MAY NEED
A TEMPO GROUP FOR MONDAY. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING.

SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE...AND WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT BKW.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL THE WV
MTNS...MAINLY ALONG THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...MON AFTERNOON INTO
MON NIGHT IN LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KRLX 221922
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
223 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS UP N ARE EXODUS...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
ARRIVING FROM THE S IN RESPONSE TO S/W FEATURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
NAM AND ECMWF BEAT GFS AND UKMET ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL TAKE MOST OF ITS DYNAMICS S AND E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MON.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT AND MON IS UPSLOPE SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING.

FARTHER W...FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING AND FORCING IS MUCH LESS EVEN THOUGH
THE COLUMN IS ALMOST AS SATURATED.  SREF STILL SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OHIO IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN VORT LOBE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W FEATURE.

INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS PACKAGE IN GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING GULF AND THEN SE COASTS.  THIS
SET UP WEAKENS LATE MON AS NEW ENGLAND HIGH IS EXODUS AND LOW IS E
OF THE AREA OFF MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

NO IMPORTANT DEVIATIONS FROM MOS ANTICIPATED ON LOWS TONIGHT NOR
HIGHS MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK H5 VORT MAX REACHING THE AREA
BY TUE 00Z...UNDER A DESCENT MOISTURE LAYER UP TO H7. THEREFORE...BY
00Z TUE...BULK OF PCPN PROBABLY MOVING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE PCPN MOVES
NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. WITH LESS FORCING AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW
UP TO H8 BY TUE EVENING...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

BY WED...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER MI. MODELS SOLUTIONS
SEEMS SPLIT ON THE WED 12Z LOWS CENTER WITH THE NAM/ECMWF BEEN A BIT
WEST WHEN COMPARED WITH THE GFS/GEM POSITIONS. HOWEVER...THE GEM AND
GFS SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
WV BY THE SAME TIME. THIS FEATURE COULD BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ATTM...WITH
VERY LOW BUOYANCY IF ANY...AND PW UNDER ONE INCH...KEPT THUNDER OUT
FOR WED.

ALMOST IDENTICAL BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE SREF AND GMOS FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NOTICED TUE AND WED MORNING...WHICH RESULTED
INTO A BLEND FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S. MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TUE...AND
FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WED AS H5 TEMPS DROP 3-4 DEGREES ACCORDING TO
THE SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
AFTER VFR START...CLOUDS INCREASE...LOWER AND THICKEN FROM S TO N
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
MTNS...FIRST BKW WHERE FEW025 HAD ALREADY SHOWN UP...AND THEN LIKELY
BY DAWN MON EKN WHEN BKW MAY START EXPERIENCING IFR DECK.  ALSO HAVE
MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MON AT BKW ONLY...AS THIS
WEATHER WILL AFFECT SE FACING MTN SLOPES.

ELSEWHERE CIGS WILL LOWER BELOW 6KFT LATER TONIGHT BUT LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD..WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION ON HTS WHICH COULD
SEE MVFR DECK BY THE CLOSE OF THE PD.  NOTHING MORE THAN SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS MON...WITH NO IMPORTANT
VSBY RESTRICTION.

SE FLOW IN THE MTNS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON HILL AND
RIDGE TOPS LIKE BKW...WHILE LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
BECOMES SE.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MODERATE SE.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL THE WV
MTNS...MAINLY ALONG THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...MON AFTERNOON INTO
MON NIGHT IN LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KRLX 221806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
102 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST.  COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.  COLD AND CLOUDY FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS UP N ARE EXODUS...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
ARRIVING FROM THE S IN RESPONSE TO S/W FEATURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
NAM AND ECMWF BEAT GFS AND UKMET ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL TAKE MOST OF ITS DYNAMICS S AND E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MON.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT AND MON IS UPSLOPE SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING.

FARTHER W...FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING AND FORCING IS MUCH LESS EVEN THOUGH
THE COLUMN IS ALMOST AS SATURATED.  SREF STILL SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OHIO IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN VORT LOBE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W FEATURE.

INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS PACKAGE IN GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING GULF AND THEN SE COASTS.  THIS
SET UP WEAKENS LATE MON AS NEW ENGLAND HIGH IS EXODUS AND LOW IS E
OF THE AREA OFF MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

NO IMPORTANT DEVIATIONS FROM MOS ANTICIPATED ON LOWS TONIGHT NOR
HIGHS MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL
EXPAND POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TUESDAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS INTO
TUESDAY...BUT NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHTS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MID
WEEK...PUSHING IT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NOW. WILL ADJUST TIMING...BUT
NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
AFTER VFR START...CLOUDS INCREASE...LOWER AND THICKEN FROM S TO N
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
MTNS...FIRST BKW WHERE FEW025 HAD ALREADY SHOWN UP...AND THEN LIKELY
BY DAWN MON EKN WHEN BKW MAY START EXPERIENCING IFR DECK.  ALSO HAVE
MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MON AT BKW ONLY...AS THIS
WEATHER WILL AFFECT SE FACING MTN SLOPES.

ELSEWHERE CIGS WILL LOWER BELOW 6KFT LATER TONIGHT BUT LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD..WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION ON HTS WHICH COULD
SEE MVFR DECK BY THE CLOSE OF THE PD.  NOTHING MORE THAN SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS MON...WITH NO IMPORTANT
VSBY RESTRICTION.

SE FLOW IN THE MTNS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON HILL AND
RIDGE TOPS LIKE BKW...WHILE LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
BECOMES SE.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MODERATE SE.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL THE WV
MTNS...MAINLY ALONG THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...MON AFTERNOON INTO
MON NIGHT IN LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KRLX 221037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
537 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS IMPACT
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. COLD AND CLOUDY FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED THIS THINKING.  HOWEVER...
MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS SINCE
YESTERDAY.

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...APPEARS UPPER LOW OVER LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST.  THIS MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION DRY FOR ONE MORE DAY.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TODAY...SPREADING NORTH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO ON MONDAY.  COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO LATEST GUIDANCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.  SEE NO
REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL
EXPAND POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TUESDAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS INTO
TUESDAY...BUT NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHTS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MID
WEEK...PUSHING IT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NOW. WILL ADJUST TIMING...BUT
NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
AREA OF LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF PA AND
NORTHEAST OH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THAT PART OF THE REGION UNTIL 18Z...BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...PATCHY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

ANY FOG/MIST THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
OTHER FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY TODAY.

THE GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN....WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AFT 00Z MON. LIFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AFT 10Z MON.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE
WV MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...MONDAY IN
RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KRLX 220802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS IMPACT
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. COLD AND CLOUDY FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED THIS THINKING.  HOWEVER...
MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS SINCE
YESTERDAY.

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...APPEARS UPPER LOW OVER LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST.  THIS MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION DRY FOR ONE MORE DAY.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TODAY...SPREADING NORTH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO ON MONDAY.  COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO LATEST GUIDANCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.  SEE NO
REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL
EXPAND POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TUESDAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS INTO
TUESDAY...BUT NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHTS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MID
WEEK...PUSHING IT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NOW. WILL ADJUST TIMING...BUT
NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
AREA OF LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF PA AND
NORTHEAST OH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THAT PART OF THE REGION UNTIL 18Z...BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...PATCHY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE MVFR MIST AFT 06Z. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD IFR FOG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD LOCATIONS IN FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

THE FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

THE GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN....WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFT 00Z
MON.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KRLX 220518
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1218 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS NOT HANDING PATCHY STRATOCU DECKS AROUND THE AREA BUT IT
APPEARS THIS CLOUD WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FCST...OTHER THAN
THEIR EXODUS FROM THE FCST FOR TONIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES...WILL ADJUST AT LEAST TO THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG BY DAWN SUN...ESPECIALLY MTN
RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART BUT ALSO ALONG THE OHIO AGAIN.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BEGINNING SUN W/R UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.  BELIEVE S/W CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AT BAY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z SUN.  WITH
THIS...TOGETHER WITH SLOWER OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT...MOST
MODELS INCLUDING MOST SREF MEMBERS KEEP FCST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z
MON.  OPTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY KNOCK BACK...BUT ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE
POPS...FOR SE PORTION OF FCST AREA SUN...AS E COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO SET UP.

WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR SUN...IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OR TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NAM DAMPENS OUT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST A BIT MORE THAN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. NAM ALSO DRAGS
IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LEAVES THE CWA ONLY AFFECTED BY THE WELL
DEPICTED SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. NOT SOLD ON
THE NAM AT THIS POINT TAKING THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS DOES OVER DO THE CLOUD FORECAST
IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A CAREFUL EYE IS NEEDED FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHICH
OF THESE ACTUALLY PREVAILS WITH CONSISTENCY. POPS REMAIN HIGHEST IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND
HAVE REDUCED CONSIDERABLY THE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH AN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHER
THAN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE LOWLANDS ON
MONDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
MAY END UP WITH A SITUATION WHERE THE MAX T FORECASTS LOWERS EVEN
MORE WITH A SMALL DIURNAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
AREA OF LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF PA AND
NORTHEAST OH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THAT PART OF THE REGION UNTIL 18Z...BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...PATCHY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE MVFR MIST AFT 06Z. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD IFR FOG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD LOCATIONS IN FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

THE FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

THE GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN....WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFT 00Z
MON.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KRLX 220252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
850 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS NOT HANDING PATCHY STRATOCU DECKS AROUND THE AREA BUT IT
APPEARS THIS CLOUD WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FCST...OTHER THAN
THEIR EXODUS FROM THE FCST FOR TONIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES...WILL ADJUST AT LEAST TO THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG BY DAWN SUN...ESPECIALLY MTN
RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART BUT ALSO ALONG THE OHIO AGAIN.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BEGINNING SUN W/R UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.  BELIEVE S/W CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AT BAY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z SUN.  WITH
THIS...TOGETHER WITH SLOWER OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT...MOST
MODELS INCLUDING MOST SREF MEMBERS KEEP FCST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z
MON.  OPTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY KNOCK BACK...BUT ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE
POPS...FOR SE PORTION OF FCST AREA SUN...AS E COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO SET UP.

WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR SUN...IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OR TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NAM DAMPENS OUT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST A BIT MORE THAN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. NAM ALSO DRAGS
IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LEAVES THE CWA ONLY AFFECTED BY THE WELL
DEPICTED SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. NOT SOLD ON
THE NAM AT THIS POINT TAKING THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS DOES OVER DO THE CLOUD FORECAST
IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A CAREFUL EYE IS NEEDED FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHICH
OF THESE ACTUALLY PREVAILS WITH CONSISTENCY. POPS REMAIN HIGHEST IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND
HAVE REDUCED CONSIDERABLY THE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH AN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHER
THAN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE LOWLANDS ON
MONDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
MAY END UP WITH A SITUATION WHERE THE MAX T FORECASTS LOWERS EVEN
MORE WITH A SMALL DIURNAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
MVFR MIST WITH ISOLD IFR FOG IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR
THE TAF SITES...EKN WILL LIKELY BE THE LONE SITE TO GO IFR BEFORE
DAWN SUNDAY.  THE FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

A SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HI
LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY...WITH AT MOST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA BY 18Z SUN.

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ

000
FXUS61 KRLX 212002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS NOT HANDING PATCHY STRATOCU DECKS AROUND THE AREA BUT IT
APPEARS THIS CLOUD WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FCST...OTHER THAN
THEIR EXODUS FROM THE FCST FOR TONIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES...WILL ADJUST AT LEAST TO THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG BY DAWN SUN...ESPECIALLY MTN
RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART BUT ALSO ALONG THE OHIO AGAIN.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BEGINNING SUN W/R UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.  BELIEVE S/W CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AT BAY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z SUN.  WITH
THIS...TOGETHER WITH SLOWER OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT...MOST
MODELS INCLUDING MOST SREF MEMBERS KEEP FCST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z
MON.  OPTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY KNOCK BACK...BUT ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE
POPS...FOR SE PORTION OF FCST AREA SUN...AS E COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO SET UP.

WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR SUN...IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OR TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NAM DAMPENS OUT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST A BIT MORE THAN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. NAM ALSO DRAGS
IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LEAVES THE CWA ONLY AFFECTED BY THE WELL
DEPICTED SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. NOT SOLD ON
THE NAM AT THIS POINT TAKING THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS DOES OVER DO THE CLOUD FORECAST
IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A CAREFUL EYE IS NEEDED FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHICH
OF THESE ACTUALLY PREVAILS WITH CONSISTENCY. POPS REMAIN HIGHEST IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND
HAVE REDUCED CONSIDERABLY THE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH AN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHER
THAN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE LOWLANDS ON
MONDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
MAY END UP WITH A SITUATION WHERE THE MAX T FORECASTS LOWERS EVEN
MORE WITH A SMALL DIURNAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 4500-5500 FT AGL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BY AND LARGE
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET OF NOT EARLIER THIS AFTN.

LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MVFR MIST WITH ISOLD IFR FOG IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR THE TAF SITES...EKN WILL LIKELY
BE THE LONE SITE TO GO IFR BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY.  THE FOG/MIST SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

A SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HI
LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY...WITH AT MOST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA BY 18Z SUN.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KRLX 211805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
106 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS NOT HANDING PATCHY STRATOCU DECKS AROUND THE AREA BUT IT
APPEARS THIS CLOUD WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FCST...OTHER THAN
THEIR EXODUS FROM THE FCST FOR TONIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES...WILL ADJUST AT LEAST TO THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG BY DAWN SUN...ESPECIALLY MTN
RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART BUT ALSO ALONG THE OHIO AGAIN.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BEGINNING SUN W/R UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.  BELIEVE S/W CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AT BAY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z SUN.  WITH
THIS...TOGETHER WITH SLOWER OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT...MOST
MODELS INCLUDING MOST SREF MEMBERS KEEP FCST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z
MON.  OPTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY KNOCK BACK...BUT ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE
POPS...FOR SE PORTION OF FCST AREA SUN...AS E COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO SET UP.

WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR SUN...IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OR TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING BIG TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM
LAST NIGHTS RUNS...AND SERIOUS TIMING QUESTIONS REMAIN. WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE REGION...AND
LINGER POPS LONGER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SAME BASIC TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THE FASTEST
IN THE COOL DOWN...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SLOWER.

MAIN THEME IN OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL COOL
DOWN...WITH NO SUDDEN OR SHARP CHANGE.  ALSO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD...GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS.

LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARMING IN LOW
LEVELS THOUGHT WE COULD KEEP POP AOB 14 PCT 00Z TUESDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY.

LEFT OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT.  LULL IN POPS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO OUR CHANCE POP RANGE WITH
MID/UPPER AIR TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID HAVE A SMALL
LIKELY POP AREA AROUND ELKINS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FIGURING ON LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING SOUTHWEST. I AM A BIT WARMER THAN MY NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...STILL HAVE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THINKING SOME OF THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.  IF SO...WOULD BE THEIR FIRST
FLAKES.  THIS IS UNUSUALLY LATE FOR THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 4500-5500 FT AGL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BY AND LARGE
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET OF NOT EARLIER THIS AFTN.

LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MVFR MIST WITH ISOLD IFR FOG IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR THE TAF SITES...EKN WILL LIKELY
BE THE LONE SITE TO GO IFR BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY.  THE FOG/MIST SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

A SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HI
LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY...WITH AT MOST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA BY 18Z SUN.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KRLX 210950
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
450 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME CLOUDS AROUND SOME CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FT AGL
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ATTM.  THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE RATHER THIN...SO SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS AT 2 AM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST WITH TIME...IMPACTING THE REGION.  LATEST MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY.  IN FACT...THE NAM12
SUGGESTS REGION WILL GENERALLY BE DRY INTO MONDAY.

NAM12 IS MUCH SLOWER THAN GFS AND ENSEMBLES...SO WILL GENERALLY
TWEAK PREVIOUS POPS TOWARD THE GFS TIMING TO REFLECT SLOWER
TREND.

END RESULT OF THIS NEW TIMING WILL BE CLOUD THICKENING
TONIGHT...SPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO OUR VA
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST...MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.

MADE FEW CHANGES TO HIGH TODAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE WAS VERY SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LOOKS BELIEVABLE.  LOWS TONIGHT WERE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS.  ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY TWEAKED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING BIG TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM
LAST NIGHTS RUNS...AND SERIOUS TIMING QUESTIONS REMAIN. WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE REGION...AND
LINGER POPS LONGER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAME BASIC TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THE FASTEST
IN THE COOL DOWN...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SLOWER.

MAIN THEME IN OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL COOL
DOWN...WITH NO SUDDEN OR SHARP CHANGE.  ALSO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD...GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS.

LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARMING IN LOW
LEVELS THOUGHT WE COULD KEEP POP AOB 14 PCT 00Z TUESDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY.

LEFT OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT.  LULL IN POPS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO OUR CHANCE POP RANGE WITH
MID/UPPER AIR TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID HAVE A SMALL
LIKELY POP AREA AROUND ELKINS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FIGURING ON LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING SOUTHWEST. I AM A BIT WARMER THAN MY NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...STILL HAVE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THINKING SOME OF THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.  IF SO...WOULD BE THEIR FIRST
FLAKES.  THIS IS UNUSUALLY LATE FOR THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 3500-4500 FT AGL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. MODELS
INDICATE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

SOME LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/MIST WITH
ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE FOG/MIST SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

A SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HI
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA BY 12Z SUN

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KRLX 210733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
230 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME CLOUDS AROUND SOME CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FT AGL
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ATTM.  THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE RATHER THIN...SO SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS AT 2 AM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST WITH TIME...IMPACTING THE REGION.  LATEST MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY.  IN FACT...THE NAM12
SUGGESTS REGION WILL GENERALLY BE DRY INTO MONDAY.

NAM12 IS MUCH SLOWER THAN GFS AND ENSEMBLES...SO WILL GENERALLY
TWEAK PREVIOUS POPS TOWARD THE GFS TIMING TO REFLECT SLOWER
TREND.

END RESULT OF THIS NEW TIMING WILL BE CLOUD THICKENING
TONIGHT...SPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO OUR VA
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST...MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.

MADE FEW CHANGES TO HIGH TODAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE WAS VERY SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LOOKS BELIEVABLE.  LOWS TONIGHT WERE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS.  ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY TWEAKED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING BIG TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM
LAST NIGHTS RUNS...AND SERIOUS TIMING QUESTIONS REMAIN. WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE REGION...AND
LINGER POPS LONGER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAME BASIC TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THE FASTEST
IN THE COOL DOWN...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SLOWER.

MAIN THEME IN OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL COOL
DOWN...WITH NO SUDDEN OR SHARP CHANGE.  ALSO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD...GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS.

LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARMING IN LOW
LEVELS THOUGHT WE COULD KEEP POP AOB 14 PCT 00Z TUESDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY.

LEFT OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT.  LULL IN POPS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO OUR CHANCE POP RANGE WITH
MID/UPPER AIR TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID HAVE A SMALL
LIKELY POP AREA AROUND ELKINS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FIGURING ON LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING SOUTHWEST. I AM A BIT WARMER THAN MY NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...STILL HAVE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THINKING SOME OF THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.  IF SO...WOULD BE THEIR FIRST
FLAKES.  THIS IS UNUSUALLY LATE FOR THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 3500-4500 FT AGL
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
MODELS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THAT REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS POSSIBLE PRODUCING IFR
VISIBILITIES AT CRW...HTS AND EKN. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
LIFT/DISSIPATE AFT 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND SOUTHERN WV ON
SUNDAY IN RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH