000
FXAK69 PAFG 090114
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL PERSIST. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM POINT HOPE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO LIE
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST BY 3PM MON AND THEN PERSIST. THIS WILL
CAUSE EAST WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TO PERSIST.

A 995 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO EASTERN NORTON
SOUND AS A 990 MB LOW BY 3PM MON...AND TO NEAR TANANA AS A 1001 MB
LOW BY 4AM TUE. A WEATHER FRONT FROM THE LOW SOUTH WILL MOVE TO
NORTON SOUND TONIGHT INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR MON AND INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR ON TUE. THERE SHOULD BE A 12 HR PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW FALL WITH THIS PRODUCING 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SE WINDS 25-30 KT ALONG THE FRONT BECOMING SW 35 KT WEST OF THE
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. THE
WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW/FRONT MOVES INLAND.
THE WINDS POST FRONTAL WILL CAUSE HEAVY SURF IN ZONE 214 MON AND
MON NIGHT, AND IN ZONE 212 MON NIGHT.

A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA MON AND
BECOME A STRONG 973 MB LOW NEAR PROVIDENYIA BY 3PM TUE, AND A 970
MB LOW NEAR KIVALINA WED AM. RIGHT NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
STRONGEST STORM THIS FALL. EXPECT SOUTHWEST GALE-STORM FORCE
WINDS, HEAVY SNOW, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN, AND POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING WITH THIS STORM TUE-WED.
DETAILS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET THROUGH THE FIRST STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS HANDLING THE SERIES OF LOWS
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE LOW NOW IN THE GULF OF
ANADYR APPEARED TO HAVE ITS TRACK HANDLED BETTER BY NAM AT 12Z
BASED ON THE VERY FAST JET SUPPORTING THIS. THE GFS AND ECMF
APPEARED TO MOVE THIS LOW TOO SLOWLY. BUT, THE NAM APPEARS TO
WEAKEN THIS FEATURE TOO QUICKLY COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMF. FOR
THIS REASON WE USED THE NAM CREATE THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THROUGH
MON NIGHT, BUT INCREASED THE NAM WIND SPEEDS 5-10 KT ON MON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW NOT BEING MAINTAINED DEEP ENOUGH, AND TO
CLOSER REFLECT THE GFS/ECMF WIND SPEEDS.

THE SECOND LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN BERING MON NIGHT AND
MOVING TO PROVIDENYIA TUE IS TRACKED MUCH FASTER ON THE
GFS AND ECMF THAN ON THE NAM. PREFER THE GFS/ECMF AT THIS TIME.
THE ECMF IS BOMBING THIS LOW TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH
OVER THE BERING STRAIT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMF SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS
STORM TO BE VERY POTENT. SIGNIFICANTLY, THESE MODELS ARE BOTH
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALL ALONG
THE WEST COAST TUE PM-WED PM FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO KIVALINA.
THIS STORM NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HEAVY SURF IS EXPECTED MON AND MON NIGHT IN ZONES 214 AND 212.

A VERY STRONG STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS STORM...BUT DUE TO ITS FORECAST INTENSITY
IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING FROM THE BERING STRAIT
TO THE YUKON DELTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO
A POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT TO
KIVALINA WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING
IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...RESIDENTS OF COMMUNITIES ALONG THE
WEST COAST ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED SHOULD THIS STORM DEVELOP AS
FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

HYDRO...AN ICE JAM ON THE TANANA RIVER AT SALCHA IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SALCHA INCLUDING THE PILEDRIVER SLOUGH AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ216.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JB NOV 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 090054
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
354 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL DRIFT WWD AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN THRU MON. A DEVELOPING LOW ABOUT 150 NM SW OF THE
CHARLOTTES WILL MOVE N INTO THE SE GULF THIS EVENING...THEN DRIFT
NW BUT REMAIN OVER THE SE GULF LATER TONIGHT INTO MON. ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE SRN AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
GO ALOFT AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND MON MORNING. SECOND WRAP OF FRONT WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
COASTAL AREA TONIGHT AND CENTRAL COAST FROM PASI SWD MON.

 SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND MON. AM CONCERNED
ABOUT HOW MUCH WIND WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SRN OUTER COAST TONIGHT AND CENTRAL COAST MON. SHOULD BE A
BAND OF ADVY LEVEL WINDS AFFECTING SRN COAST BEGINNING EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH OCCLUDED FRONT...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVY WINDS
THERE LATER TONIGHT AS SECOND WRAP BEGINS TO AFFECT THEM. MAY
ALSO SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF ADVY LEVEL WINDS IN ZONE 28 BUT LESS
CONFIDENT THERE. THEN SECOND WRAP WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST
MON AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA FROM PASI SWD WILL SEE ADVY LEVEL
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND PORT ALEXANDER. PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVY FOR TONIGHT IN ZONE 27 AND MON FOR ZONE 23. DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING AN ADVY FOR 28 BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AS FRONT
APPROACHES THEM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE GALES FOR WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE ADVY AREA AS WELL AS CLARENCE STRAIT TONIGHT INTO
MON MORNING AT LEAST. FURTHER N...WILL LIKELY SEE SCA LEVEL N
WINDS IN THE N-S CHANNELS FOR A BIT LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BUT THOSE SHOULD DIMINISH MON AS FRONT MOVES LAST
THEM ALOFT. THE MORE E-W CHANNELS SHOULD STAY AT SCA LEVELS
THOUGH THRU MOST OF MON.

 SECOND CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. ATTM...SOME LIGHTNING HAS
OCCURRED ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
CAPE WILL BE DECREASING AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE FRONT SHOULD
OCCUR BY TIME IT GETS INTO THE SRN AREA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
AND MAKE FINAL DECISION ON WHETHER TO ADD PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS TO
THE FAR SRN AREAS THIS EVENING CLOSER TO ISSUANCE TIME. OTHER
THREAT FOR TSTMS WOULD BEGIN EARLY MON AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
WRAPS AROUND LOW INTO THE SRN AREA. CAPE FORECAST FOR THE FAR S
IS MARGINAL FOR TSTMS...BUT MID-VORT FIELD WILL BE SOMEWHAT
CHANNELED. ATTM...AM GOING TO KEEP MENTION OUT FOR MON AS WELL.

 AS FOR PRECIP...RAIN WITH THE FRONT SHOULD REACH SRN AREA BY
EARLY EVENING...THEN REACH S-CENTRAL AREA BY LATE EVENING. AS
BAND CONTINUES FURTHER N...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE
TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF IT AND THE FRONT GOING ALOFT. WILL
KEEP HIGHEST POPS WITH FRONT MAINLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE
AREA. AS FRONT GOES BY HOWEVER...THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO FLOW
WILL WEAKEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD AND ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR
N AS PAJN- PAEL CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MON...BEFORE
OFFSHORE FLOW  INCREASES AGAIN OVER THE N LATER MON.

 AS FOR THE ONGOING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...THEY SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH FROM S TO N THIS EVENING. THE PAYA AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE THRU A DEEPER
LAYER...AND MON WILL LIKELY REMAIN NICE THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM.../MON NIGHT THROUGH SUN/
LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BE
PROGRESSIVE DURING THE WEEK. ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN ERN GULF
GRADUALLY FILLS AND GETS SHOVED INLAND WED BY APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. RIDGE IS ONLY TEMPORARY. MODELS AGREE A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GULF ON THUR AND INLAND BY FRI.
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AFTER WED IS ONLY MEDIUM BECUASE OF
DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF/UKMET. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SHOW GREATEST SPREAD OVER PANHANDLE FRI.

ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL MODELS KEEP LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OVER ERN
GULF TUE-WED THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE PATTERN HINTS AT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. CHC FOR SHOWERS WIL BE HIGHEST SRN HALF
OF PANHANDLE TUE-WED WHILE NRN HALF MAY BENEFIT FROM A DRIER
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION N OF THE SFC LOW FCST TO GET TO ABOUT
SITKA SOUND AND STALLING. AS RIDGE APPROACHES UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE MAY ALSO HELP TO DIMINISH SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM NW TO
SE. SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TUES NIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR
COLD MORNING WED WITH TEMPS IN MID 20S IN YAKUTAT AND
HAINES/SKAWGWAY ZONES. BUT THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES QUICKLY
PAST...FASTER AND FLATTER IN EURO MODEL...SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLITUDE IN GFS. UKMET MODEL PREFERRED SLIGHTLY AS A COMPROMISE
AND IS SUPPORTED BY NCEP DISCUSSIONS TODAY TOO. LONG RANGE GRIDS
CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN HPC GUIDANCE TO EXISTING
GRIDS.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE FEATURES OF FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THU VARY DEPENDING
UPON MODEL. I EXPECT STEADY AND POSSIBLY HEAVY PRECIP ON THUR
DRAGGING FROM NRN ZONES TO SOUTHERN ZONES OVER 24HRS TO FRI
MORNING. THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE VERY SHARP GRADIENT ALG FRONT
AND VALUES DIPPING INTO THE 515 TO 520 DM RANGE SO SNOW IN FCST
NEAR END OF PERIOD LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET NORTH OF JUNEAU-CROSS
SOUND.


 &&


.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ027.
         WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM AKST MONDAY FOR AKZ023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041-042-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-043-051.

&&

$$

RWT/TA

000
FXAK68 PAFC 082357
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION AND THEN DIVERGE GREATLY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK. THEY ARE STILL A BIT UNSETTLED IN
THE BERING SEA.
FOR THE GULF FROM WEDNESDAY ON THE MODELS ARE IN A STATE OF FLUX. THE
GFS TOOK A WILD CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY DEVIATING FROM THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IT HAD ESTABLISHED FROM
NUMEROUS PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS ALSO MADE A BIT OF A
CHANGE BUT HAS NOT JUMPED TO A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT LONG WAVE
SITUATION AS THE GFS HAS. THERE IS NOTHING ABOUT THE TWO MODELS THAT
AGREE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON IN THE GULF AND EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SUSPICION IS THAT THE SOLUTIONS WILL BRING THE LOW
A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST AS NEWER MODEL RUNS COME IN.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE BERING SEA REGION SHOWS THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING
CLOSE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FIRST LOW THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE UKMET IS A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH
AND THE NAM WANTS TO HAVE A SECONDARY CENTER SOUTH OF THE MAIN LOW
THAT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.
FOR THE SECOND LOW THE THREE HEMISPHERIC MODELS ARE PUTTING THE SAME
TRACK BUT VARY ON THE INTENSITY. THE STRONGEST IS THE ECMWF RUN FROM
12Z TODAY WHICH DROPS IT INTO THE LOWER 960S BY TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH
OF THE BERING STRAIT. THE GFS IT ABOUT 10 MB WEAKER AND UKMET IS
WEAKER THAN THAT. THE MAIN ISSUE TO WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS THE SLIGHT THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT HAPPEN DUE TO THE
TRACK BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING IF THE LOW BECOMES AS STRONG AS THE
ECMWF IS FORECASTING...THOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG AT
THIS POINT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES DOWN THE ALCAN BORDER AND THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT DAY
AND THE LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
WILL EASE EASTWARD AND TWO LOWS WILL RIDE OVER IT IN THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
NARROWING DOWN THE FOCUS THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT IS
MOVING EASTWARD FROM BRISTOL BAY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE
LOW THAT IS STRENGTHENING NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND. THIS IS WHAT IS
BRINGING SOME SNOW INTO AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF
COAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE TRICKIEST AREA OF THE FORECAST TODAY IS IN
THE COOK INLET REGION AS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE MUCH SNOW WITH THE
SHORTWAVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA. THE SET UP IS NOT ONE THAT
SHOULD GIVE MUCH SNOW IN THE ANCHORAGE OR MAT-SU VALLEY AREAS BUT ONE
INCH OR LESS NEAR SEA LEVEL RANGING UP TO 3 INCHES AT ELEVATION LOOKS
REASONABLE.
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SHOULD SEE CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK IS MUCH LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS THE
MODELS HAVE MADE SOME MAJOR CHANGES. IF MODELS DO INDEED BRING A
WEAKER LOW EAST OF COOK INLET AS SPECULATED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION
SECTION...THE CHANCE OF SNOWFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE
INCREASED AGAIN FOR LATER THIS WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 150 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 081519
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
619 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS A 980 MB LOW
WELL SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT BAY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ANOTHER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE
LOW NORTHWESTWARD ALL THE WAY TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND ROUGH SEAS AROUND 12 FEET ARE
OCCURRING EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
ONSHORE...THE BOUNDARY PRODUCES SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE OCEAN
ENTRANCES WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTS FROM LINCOLN ROCK TO CAPE
DECISION TO CAPE SPENCER. TO THE SOUTH...A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS ENTERING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF AT THIS
TIME WITH A TROUGH FORMING ALONG 140W.

 MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WEAKENS TO 984 MB THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 988 MB NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND BY
TONIGHT. THE DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT. BLENDED THE INHERITED GRIDS WITH THE NAM AND GFS TO
MAINTAIN FORECAST CONSISTENCY.

 AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SMALL
CRAFT WINDS ACROSS THE OUTSIDE WATERS AND OCEAN ENTRANCES WILL
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE ROUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH THE WEAKENING LOW...RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH...SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
STRATIFORM TO A LINE FROM ELFIN COVE TO PETERSBURG AS THE LOW
TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. THIS LOW ALSO BRINGS
WARM AIR TO THE AREA AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN EXCEPT
YAKUTAT WHERE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUE-
TUE NIGHT PERIODS. A TRANSIENT RIDGE WILL FOLLOW WED. A NEW UPPER
LOW WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP SURFACE LOW...OCCLUSION...AND STRONG WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO GULF THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY. THIS COMPLEX EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO FIT THE EL NINO
MODEL FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

WILL NOT FRET THE TIMING AND INTENSITY DETAIL IN LONGER RANGE
PERIODS AT THIS TIME (ALTHOUGH WITH A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN YUKON FRIDAY DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND
EVENT IN EASTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
FRIDAY) BUT WILL CONCENTRATE ON MODIFYING KNOWN MODEL BIAS THIS
TIME OF YEAR FROM ENTERING GIRDED FORECAST. THIS WOULD BE `
NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THAT WATER TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF REMAIN
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S...SO WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS....NEED THICKNESS TO DROP INTO LOWER 520S IF NOT TO 518
BEFORE PRECIP GOES TO STRAIGHT SNOW. IT CAN TAKE SEVERAL WEEKS TO
RELEASE THIS BUILT UP GULF WARMTH INTO ATMO THROUGH RELEASE OF
LATENT HEAT BEFORE IT CAN BE ADVECTED OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP
LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND A NON-ACCUMULATING MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
(SHOWERS EARLIER PERIODS) FOR PUBLIC ZONES DURING THE WEEK. HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF ALL SNOW BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH STRONG CAA BEHIND
SECOND SYSTEM BUT DO NOT WANT TO START SECOND GUESSING MODEL
TIMING AT DAY 7.

GRIDS BASED ON MAINLY AKGFS HOWEVER BLENDED WITH HPC AND OFFICIAL
GRIDS TO TAME MODEL JUMPINESS. WILL ALLOW NORTHERLIES INTO INNER
CHANNELS MID WEEK BUT WILL TREND TO SOUTHERLY GALES LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031-033-035-036-041>043-051-
     052.

&&

$$

AHN/MM

000
FXAK69 PAFG 081431
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
531 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING BUT RAPIDLY DIVERGE MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA MUCH DEEPER AND SLOWER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER AND FASTER
MOVING STORM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON MONDAY
EVENING. FINALLY, THE ECMF TAKES THE MIDDLE GROUND...A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE GFS AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE NAM. SINCE THE
STORM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING JET STREAK PREFER THE ECMF
MOVEMENT WITH THE NAM`S PRECIPITATION.

ALOFT...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED FROM THE INTERIOR
OF ALASKA TO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. REPLACING
THE TROUGH WILL BE SUNDAY`S BERING SEA RIDGE MOVING TO THE INTERIOR
BY WEDNESDAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES TODAY IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL HAVE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AN ICE JAM ON THE
TANANA RIVER AT SALCHA WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.

ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY GIVING THE ARCTIC COAST FLURRIES AND PATCHY
STRATUS. EAST WINDS WILL START INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS BERING SEA STORM MOVES OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA MONDAY.

WEST COAST...THIS IS WHERE ALL THE ACTION WILL BE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS NORTHERN BERING SEA STORM MOVES OVER THE SEWARD
PENINSULA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE OUT
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS WHICH INCLUDES ZONES 211-212-213 AND 214 FOR
HEAVY SNOW AND POSSIBLE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG
WINDS BLOWING SNOW. SNOW TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 6 INCHES
WITH MODELS CREATING SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THESE AMOUNTS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THE YUKON DELTA AREA AS WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 30 TO 40
MPH THERE. THINGS WILL EASE ON TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER STORM IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE


HYDRO...AN ICE JAM ON THE TANANA RIVER AT SALCHA IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SALCHA INCLUDING THE PILEDRIVER SLOUGH AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

RL NOV 09

000
FXAK68 PAFC 081313
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MEAN UPPER LOW POSITION OVER ALASKA WITH ANOTHER (MUCH DEEPER) UPPER
LOW OVER NORTHEAST SIBERIA. JET STREAM VERY STRONG COMING OFF OF
MONGOLIA OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THEN ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
DIVING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN ALASKA MOVES EAST AND
SHARPENS...SOME MOISTURE IS BEING DRAGGED WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. SNOW SHOWERS (POSSIBLY RAIN IN COASTAL AREAS) ALREADY
REPORTED IN VALDEZ SHOULD MOVE INTO ANCHORAGE LATER TODAY AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS HOMER AND TALKEETNA BY MONDAY MORNING. A
SYSTEM PUSHING OFF OF EASTERN SIBERIA THIS MORNING SHOULD REACH THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA MONDAY MORNING...AND EJECT THE GULF LOW AND ITS
MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BIG WARM ADVECTION DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA
WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BRIEF CLEARING
IN SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WE THEN GET INTO A SITUATION WHERE THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS RETROGRADES
INTO THE BERING SEA AND A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND HARD TO TIME
SYSTEMS CROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE ONE
OUTSTANDING FEATURE IN ALL THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS IS A HUGE
(590 DM HEIGHT) RIDGE THAT BUILDS OUT AT ABOUT 170 DEGREES EAST
LONGITUDE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS POSITION SUPPORTS THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER ALASKA...WHICH WOULD GIVE US TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 09

000
FXAK68 PAFC 072358
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2009

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE GULF REGION THROUGH
TUE NIGHT AND THEN THE GFS AN ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THINGS ARE MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED WITH THE MODELS IN THE BERING SEA REGION...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF LOWS IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE MODELS REMAIN UNSETTLED ON HOW TO RESOLVE THEM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE MANIFESTATION OF THIS LOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SOUTH OF YAKUTAT. MOST OF THE BERING SEA REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS
CAUSING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THAT AREA. THERE
IS A SHORT WAVE JUST NORTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR THAT CAN BE SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL.
WHILE THE MAIN PART OF THE JET STREAM IS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
THERE IS A JET STREAK COMING OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA AND OVER THE
BERING SEA THAT LINKS UP WITH THE MAIN JET SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS JET WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND
A COUPLE OF LOWS WILL MOVE ALONG IT OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIAN AND
THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST
OF THE MARINE AREAS WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BERING SEA AND OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS EASTWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. THE SHORT
WAVE NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW SHOWERS THERE THIS
EVENING.
CLOUDS IN THE COOK INLET REGION AND INTO A LARGE PART OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY HAVE PACKED UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST AND ARE NOT IN
A BIG HURRY TO CLEAR OUT. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP OUT ANY FOG...BUT
STRATUS IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY. THE AREAS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG OFF SHORE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK
THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOWN BY NUMEROUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR. THERE WILL
BE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT SWEEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE 500 MB TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 40 BELOW OVER
THE ANCHORAGE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK. COMBINE THAT WITH A FEW LOWS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE FRONTAL
ZONE SETS UP OVER THE COOK INLET AREA. THIS BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SNOWFALL IN THE COOK INLET THROUGH SUSITNA VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DETAILS AS TO EXACTLY WHEN
SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR ARE NOT EASILY SEEN THIS FAR OUT...THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE DURING THAT PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 170 171 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 09

000
FXAK69 PAFG 072351
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
251 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON AND THEN MOVE EAST. THE FLAT LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WED.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE THROUGH THIS RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE BERING INTO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA SUN THROUGH MON.

A SHORT WAVE/SURFACE LOW COUPLET NEAR MAGADAN WILL MOVE TO NEAR
CAPE NAVARIN AS A 986 MB LOW BY 3AM MON AND TO NOME AS A 981 MB
LOW BY 3PM MON AND NEAR MCGRATH BY 3AM TUE. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH
THE LOW WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO ST MATTHEW IS BY 3AM
MON...TO NOME-BETHA STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO NORTON SOUND ON MONDAY. THIS COULD
BRING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
THE YUKON DELTA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
EL BY 3PM MON...AND MCGRATH SOUTH BY 3AM TUE.
WILL SEE 4-8 INCHES OF OVERRUNNING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 25-35KT AND BLOWING
SNOW. THIS COULD CAUSE HEAVY SNOW AND LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER WATCH SAYING SUCH. IN THE STRONG
COLD ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW AND WEST OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL
TURN W-NW 40 KT AND BRING ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND MORE BLOWING SNOW.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM POINT HOPE TO KOTZEBUE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUN PM THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON. THIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS ALONG
THE ARCTIC COAST TO PERSIST INTO SUN AND INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS THE
STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST BERING.

A LOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND
MOVE EAST SUN. AREAS OF FLURRIES AND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH SUN AM AS WELL.

AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MON
AND ALLOWS A CHANCE OF SNOW TO DEVELOP THERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3PM
SUN. THEREAFTER THE GFS IS DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE NAM/ECMF
IN MOVING A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING. PREFER THE
FASTER NAM/ECMF SOLUTION AS THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FAST MOVING JET STREAK, AND THE NAM/ECMF ARE MORE CONSISTENT RUN
TO RUN WITH THIS LOW FEATURE. THE NAM ALSO PRODUCES MORE PRECIPITATION
THAN THE GFS WITH THIS DEEP LOW WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS
SUPPLY OF WARM MOIST AIR MOVING OVER WELL ENTRENCHED ARCTIC AIR
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...HEAVY SURF ZONE 214 MON
INTO TUE.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

JB NOV 09

000
FXAK67 PAJK 072205
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
110 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...975 MB LOW OVER THE NE GULF WILL WOBBLE AROUND AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT WNW SUN. SEVERAL TROFS
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND MOVES THRU SE AK THRU SUN. ANOTHER
LOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE E OVER THE NE PAC TONIGHT AND
TURN NE TOWARD THE NRN CHARLOTTES SUN.

 MAIN FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW PREVALENT THE SHOWERS WILL
BE...AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY NUMEROUS OVER
THE ERN GULF AND SE AK ATTM...AND ARE MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR TROF
AXES THAT EXTENDS S AND E OF THE LOW. THE ERN TROF AXIS WILL MOVE
NW THEN WWD AROUND N SIDE OF LOW...WHILE SRN TROF TURNS NE AND
REACHES SRN COASTAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING N
THRU THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE TROFS ARE MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AM KEEPING POPS ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NRN INNER CHANNELS AND PAYA AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROF WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA SUN MORNING...KEEPING POPS HIGH OVER MOST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS TROF LIFTS N LATER SUN AND FLOW TURNS MORE
OFFSHORE AS NEXT LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE S...THE SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE SRN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

 AS FAR AS TSTM THREAT GOES...LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SERN AREA THIS EVENING AS MID-LEVEL VORT AND COLD
POOL MOVE ACROSS THAT AREA. PUT IN ISOLATED TSTMS FOR FAR SERN
AREA FOR THE EVENING TIME FRAME.

 OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN A BAND AROUND THE LOW
OVER THE NE GULF...AND THRU THE MORE E-W INNER CHANNELS. WENT
WITH SCA FOR MUCH OF THE OUTER WATERS AND THE MORE E-W INNER
CHANNELS FOR TONIGHT INCLUDING CLARENCE AND SUMNER STRAITS FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY LATER SUN BUT STILL
EXPECT SOME SCA LEVEL WINDS OUT OF ICY STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND
THRU THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE ROUGH SIDE...BUT NOT QUITE
AS HIGH AS THE AKWAVE MODEL HAD. ENDED UP LOWERING SEAS ABOUT
2-4 FT FOR THE SERN GULF FOR TONIGHT AND SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM...MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER DAY 3. AT THE
START OF THE LNG TERM DEVELOPING LOW ALONG 50N TRACKS E TOWARDS
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES THEN SWINGS NE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE FCST TRACK OF THIS LOW IS A BIT MORE EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUN THUS DIMINISHED WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTSIDE
WATERS. STILL EXPECTING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO HIT
THE SOUTHERN ZONES TRACK NORTH AND DIMINISH. A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD
MID WEEK FOLLOWED BUT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE W GULF. NEXT UPPER LVL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE W GULF TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT WEATHER ISSUE IS HOW A STRONG LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
BERING SEA WILL MOVE. GFS IS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH A
MUCH DEEPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE AK GULF WHILE THE EC WAS MUCH
SLOWER AND WEAKER. THE UKMET LOOKED LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE AS
SUGGESTED BY HPC GUIDANCE. PANC PREFERRED THE GFS SOLUTION IN
CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS PAJK USE OF THE EC. WHIT THAT SAID FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR THE LONG RANGE.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WERE LOWERS SLIGHTLY AS
COLD AIR IS BROUGHT DOWN FOR THE INTERIOR THEN A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND MID WEEK. COLD ARCTIC AIR WITH THE END OF WEEK LOW SHOULD
MOVE DOWN FROM THE INTERIOR BUT NOT GREAT CONFIDENCE WITH TEMPS
DUE TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
PKZ021-022-031>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

$$

RWT/PRB

000
FXAK67 PAJK 071416
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
516 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A VERY SLOW DRIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR
970 MB. THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF TROFS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
IS MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ATTM WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND BANDS OF SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR. NO LIGHTNING ATTM NOTED
OVER THE CWA BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ISOLATED STRIKES IN AND
NEAR QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO NEAR
30 KTS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS PASS...OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KTS THROUGH THE PUBLIC ZONES.
MARINE WINDS CONTINUE TO BUMP ALONG AT MAX GALE IN MZ 36 AND SCA
IN ALL OUTSIDE WATERS. SCA ALSO NOTED IN MOST INNER CHANNELS.
MOST PANHANDLE LOCATIONS ARE AT VFR OR MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH
OCCASIONAL IRF AS SHOWERS PASS.

 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF PAYA CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY
POPS ON TAP AGAIN FOR THE REST OF PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH IN THE GULF. ONSHORE FLOW
FROM SURFACE TO 500 MB AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS ABUNDANT. CAPES VALUES APPROACH 300 AND LIFTED INDEX IN
THE NEGATIVE RANGE FOR SOUTHERN MZ 310 41 AND 42 THIS AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER TROFF APPROACHES THE COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NO
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT BUT SHARP TROFF AND DECENT 500 MB
VORTMAX MAY BE ENOUGH TRIGGER FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AS THE TROFF
ROTATES ON SHORE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS IN AND NEAR STRONGEST STORMS AND RAIN
BANDS.

 00Z GFS INITIALIZED WELL AND IS HANDLING THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF GULF LOW VERY WELL. OFFICIAL PRESSURE AND WIND GIRDS
WERE NUDGED WITH 00Z GFS TO PROVIDE FINE TUNING ON GULF LOW
POSITION AND TRACK. CONTINUITY CHANGES WERE MINIMAL AND UPDATED
GRIDS MATCHED AFC WIND AND SEAS GRIDS WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS MODEL FAMILY SOLUTION
SPREAD HAS BEEN LOW AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT WEEK
TIME FRAME. THE NAM BECOMES A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH A
TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
SEEMS A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BETTER ADJUSTED WITH THE ECMWF. THUS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD BE
FAVORED AND THE GFS AND ECMWF DRAW A REASONABLE CONSENSUS AND
BLENDED INTO THE INHERITED GIRDS. BEGINNING ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...MODEL CONFLICTS BECOME WORSE AND NO WELL DEFINED CONSENSUS
FOR TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH. THUS PREFERRED TO STAY
WITH A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE HPC GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL
ALSO WEAKEN AND BECOME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RELATIVELY LOW POPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAIN UNDER PERSISTING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ROUGH SEAS AND UPPER MARGIN OF
SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE OUTSIDE WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
DOMAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY MAY EASE THE
PRECIPITATION BUT THE NEXT DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING POPS FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-031>035-041-042-052.

&&

$$

CCC/AHN

000
FXAK68 PAFC 071326
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ALCAN THIS MORNING WITH
EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOWS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. A SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE AKPEN. WEAK UPPER RIDGES ARE OVER
KAMCHATKA AND THE WESTERN LOWER 48. AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BRISTOL BAY. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING. SLOWLY
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND
AKPEN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS. A WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AKPEN TODAY AND
PROVIDES THE LAST BLAST OF STRONG WINDS FOR THE AREA. THE WESTERN
BERING LOW RACES TO THE PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATES
OVER THE AKPEN. AT THIS POINT MODEL UNCERTAINTY OVER THE BERING
INCREASES. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND WITH THE EC IN BRINGING A
SECOND LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SUN NIGHT AND THEN A THIRD LOW
TOWARD NUNIVAK ISLAND WED. IN THE EAST THE SOLUTION IS STABLE AS THE
GULF LOW SPINS AND SLOWLY WEAKENS BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING WED
AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN LOW AS IT RACES TO THE PRIBILOFS AND AKPEN THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BERING EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWER
ACTIVITY UNTIL THE THIRD BERING LOW MOVES TOWARD NUNIVAK ISLAND TUE
NIGHT INTO WED.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AKPEN WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RIDGING CROSSES THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL THE THIRD BERING LOW BRINGS SHOWERS
ONSHORE ON WED.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST...INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY DRY
UNTIL TUE AS THE GULF LOW WEAKENS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH
WED. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE CHUGACH INTO THE WRANGELLS TUE INTO
WED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

YET ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE BERING BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND THESE WILL ALSO REACH SW AK. A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE
AKPEN THU WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 130 132 150 155 165 170 171
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 09

000
FXAK69 PAFG 071302
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
402 AM AKST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
BERING SEA MOVES EAST INTO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THE GFS..BY
FAR..HAS THIS SYSTEM MUCH STRONGER THAN THE NAM OR THE ECMF. SINCE
ECMF HAS BEEN BETTER IN RECENT RUN-TO-RUN SITUATIONS WE HAVE IT AS
THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

ARCTIC COAST...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS FROM THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL HAVE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
AND PATCHY FOG WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH
TODAY...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST
AND FAIRLY LIGHT ALL ALONG THE COAST.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A LARGE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY FILL AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL GIVE THE EASTERN INTERIOR LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS TO
ONE INCH. THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL SEE FLURRIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER VALLEYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW ZERO. THE NEXT
MEASURABLE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE WEST
COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY
BUT MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT IN HOW SIGNIFICANT THIS STORM WILL
BE WITH RESPECT TO WIND AND SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.
&&

$$

RL NOV 09