[top]
000
FXUS64 KHUN 082330 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
530 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS N AL.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL
INTERESTING FEATURES WHICH WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE
WEATHER AROUND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.
WHILE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...SOUTH OF HERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HURRICANE IDA IS SPINNING JUST
ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING IN THE WESTERN GOMEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO HOME...CIRRUS CLOUDS WELL
AHEAD OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES HAVE KEPT A LID ON
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S. TO THE NORTHWEST...A COLD
FRONT IS TRAILING A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
AS DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING CLOUDS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY DETERIORATES AS IDA
BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...INTERACTS WITH WESTERN GOMEX
SHORTWAVE...AND IS EVENTUALLY SHUNTED EAST ACROSS GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HANDLE IDAS REMNANTS AND THE GOMEX
SHORTWAVES RATHER DIFFERENTLY...AND GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
REMNANT SURFACE LOW TO THE CWFA...THESE SMALL DEVIATIONS IN FORECAST
TRACK ARE INCREASING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE REMNANT CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL LAYS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR COULD
SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT...HAVE OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CENTERS AROUND GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON MONDAY...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH 40 TO
50KT AT 2K FT ON TUESDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT MAY END UP WITH A WIND ADVISORY DOWN
THE LINE.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JLL
AVIATION...SL.77
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBMX 082324
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
524 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT NATURE OF IDA...TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL...CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL STILL HAVE THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THESE THREATS APPEAR REASONABLY CERTAIN FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND DURATION WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING FORECAST EVOLUTION ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT
TERM. HURRICANE IDA HAS ENTERED THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. NHC HAS
THE STRENGTH FORECAST REMAINING NEAR 85 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE ALABAMA COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT NEARS
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ADDITIONALLY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND SEEMS REASONABLE AREAWIDE...
REGARDLESS OF WHAT IDA BECOMES. BUT CERTAINLY IDA`S REMNANTS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER EFFECTS.
THE NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GEM HAVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST AND
SLOWER WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUNS
CONSENSUS. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THIS PACKAGE AND
KEEP MUCH THE SAME FLAVOR AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH LOCATIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL
OTHER AREAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SOME SORT OF AN UPGRADE OR EXTENSION WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR THESE PRODUCTS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 MPH ALMOST ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS AND WHAT FEATURE KICK OFF THE GREATEST RAIN RATES. WILL
MENTION 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LOCALIZED RAIN RATES IN THE SHORT TERM MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED IF 2 TO 4 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS VERIFY. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HIGHER
DEPENDENT ON AERIAL PLACEMENT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
SCENARIO.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM. THE MAIN CORE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE JUST ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE
WHILE LOWS DIP TO SEASONAL READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE GULF
NEVER OPENS UP. WILL KEEP SMALL POP MENTION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
75
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS
OF THIS PERIOD...AND BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BEGINNING AROUND 12Z ON MONDAY. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND
15Z/09 OCT. THIS IS BECAUSE OF AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST...BUT WITH
THE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL COME GUSTIER WINDS. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MONDAY FOR AREAS AROUND MGM/TOI WHICH
MEANS THOSE TWO SITES WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER WINDS. OUR OTHER
4 SITES TCL/BHM/EET/ANB SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP AS WELL BUT NOT AS
STRONG.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TOMORROW EVENING...
ESPECIALLY FOR MGM/TOI...BUT BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WILL WAIT UNTIL 06Z ISSUANCE TO HELP NAIL DOWN A TIME FOR
PREVAILING RA.
27
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES PERRY-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-
ELMORE- MONTGOMERY-MACON- BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN- CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR- TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-
HALE-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA- TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS.
&&
$$
75/27
000
FXUS64 KBMX 082140
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
340 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT NATURE OF IDA...TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL...CENTRAL
ALABAMA WILL STILL HAVE THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. THESE THREATS APPEAR REASONABLY CERTAIN FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND DURATION WILL BE THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING FORECAST EVOLUTION ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT
TERM. HURRICANE IDA HAS ENTERED THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. NHC HAS
THE STRENGTH FORECAST REMAINING NEAR 85 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE ALABAMA COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT NEARS
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ADDITIONALLY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS EVERYTHING COMES
TOGETHER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THEN
PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND SEEMS REASONABLE AREAWIDE...
REGARDLESS OF WHAT IDA BECOMES. BUT CERTAINLY IDA`S REMNANTS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER EFFECTS.
THE NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GEM HAVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST AND
SLOWER WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUNS
CONSENSUS. THEREFORE...WILL HOLD THE COURSE WITH THIS PACKAGE AND
KEEP MUCH THE SAME FLAVOR AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER. HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH LOCATIONS AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL
OTHER AREAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SOME SORT OF AN UPGRADE OR EXTENSION WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR THESE PRODUCTS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 MPH ALMOST ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AS THIS COMPLEX
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST RAIN
TOTALS AND WHAT FEATURE KICK OFF THE GREATEST RAIN RATES. WILL
MENTION 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ALMOST ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL ALABAMA
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
THE LOCALIZED RAIN RATES IN THE SHORT TERM MAY PRODUCE SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED IF 2 TO 4 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS VERIFY. SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HIGHER
DEPENDENT ON AERIAL PLACEMENT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
SCENARIO.
75
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT TERM SYSTEM. THE MAIN CORE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE JUST ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE
WHILE LOWS DIP TO SEASONAL READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BOTH TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE LACKING DEEP MOISTURE AS THE GULF
NEVER OPENS UP. WILL KEEP SMALL POP MENTION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
75
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A GREATER IMPACT
FROM HURRICANE IDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3-5 KTS TONIGHT. BKN MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... AFFECTING
MGM/TOI BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13
KNOTS FROM THE EAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW AFTN AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 48 69 53 63 48 / 10 10 80 90 10
ANNISTON 49 70 56 63 47 / 10 20 80 90 20
BIRMINGHAM 54 74 56 63 47 / 10 20 80 70 10
TUSCALOOSA 52 72 61 68 49 / 10 30 80 60 10
CALERA 53 72 59 64 47 / 10 30 80 80 10
AUBURN 53 71 59 64 49 / 10 30 100 90 30
MONTGOMERY 55 73 61 67 50 / 10 50 90 90 20
TROY 54 72 63 67 50 / 10 50 100 90 20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES PERRY-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-
ELMORE- MONTGOMERY-MACON- BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-
BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN- CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-
JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR- TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-
HALE-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA- TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS.
&&
$$
75/75/14
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMOB 082119
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
319 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) QUITE A COMPLEX AND
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE IDA. HURRICANE
IDA HAS SLOWLY STRENGTHENED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THE SYSTEM
LOOKING IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE AND CANCUN RADAR. HOWEVER...THE LAST
FEW SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A LITTLE MORE RAGGED CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE
WITH SIGNS OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR MAY BE STARTING TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM.
IDA IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAKENING IS
STILL EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS IDA
APPROACHES MUCH COOLER GULF WATERS. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE HOSTILE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN TEXAS MOVES EAST TOWARD THE GULF. THIS SAME UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SEND IDA NORTHWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS HOW FAST DOES IDA WEAKEN AND WILL
IT MAINTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA?
THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME MIXED SIGNALS OUT THERE AND FORECASTING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ALWAYS CHALLENGING. THE GFS HAS
DEVELOPED AN INTERESTING SCENARIO WHERE IT FORECASTS A BAROCLINIC
LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN GULF TOMORROW...WHICH IN TURN HANGS UP
THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS ALLOWS IDA TO SHOOT
NORTH...REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DELAYING A TRANSITION. IN
FACT...THE CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM CHART FROM THE GFS REVEALS THE MODEL
MAINTAINING A TROPICAL SYSTEM UP UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH
THE TROUGH HOLDING BACK...THE COOLER WATER...COOLER DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR...AND INCREASING SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY
BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL FEATURES. TO MAKE IT EVEN MORE
COMPLICATED...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO ITS NORTH...WHICH MAY SERVE AS A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. ALL IN ALL...IT
IS GOING TO BE A VERY CLOSE CALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM
MAINTAINING THE PUNCH OF A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE COAST.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF INDEED IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...WE ARE
STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING IMPACT. AS
IDA TRANSITIONS...ITS WIND FIELD WILL BROADEN AND THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IDA AND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL PUT US IN QUITE THE
`SQUEEZE PLAY`...RESULTING IN STRONG GRADIENT WINDS. GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS SPREADING INLAND...HAVE ALSO ISSUED
A INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FOR INLAND ZONES. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO STRESS NOT TO FOCUS ON WHETHER THIS IS TROPICAL OR NON TROPICAL.
INSTEAD...PREPARE FOR THE WINDS AND POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING
REGARDLESS. PLEASE REFER TO OUR HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR
SPECIFIC INFORMATION REGARDING THE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA.
TONIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. REALLY RAMP UP POPS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ALL ZONES CATEGORICAL TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
THE STORM APPROACHING THE COAST. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT WITH
TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SINCE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. LATEST NHC TRACK HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT ON
REDUCING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. STUCK CLOSE TO MOS
TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD. /34 JFB
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ALL ATTENTION DEVOTED TO IDA. A RETURN
TO AUTUMN WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MID TO LATE WEEK AS IDA MOVES OUT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE WAFFLING ON THE WEEKEND PATTERN...SO WILL
LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW...BUT SUSPECT THAT CAN BE TAKEN
OUT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
MORNING ON MONDAY. HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND HURRICANE IDA INCREASES.
EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. /13
&&
.MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MARINE
AREA AS HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS HURRICANE IDA APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. AS IDA MOVES INLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
SHE WILL TRANSITION TO EXTRA TROPICAL AND DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT AS ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
THUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 61 70 62 71 / 20 80 80 40
PENSACOLA 63 71 63 70 / 05 80 90 40
DESTIN 65 73 65 69 / 05 80 90 50
EVERGREEN 55 71 61 70 / 05 60 90 60
WAYNESBORO 56 69 58 71 / 10 70 80 40
CAMDEN 55 71 60 69 / 05 60 90 60
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER
MOBILE.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.
FL...HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND WAYNE.
GM...HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 082044
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
244 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL
INTERESTING FEATURES WHICH WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE
WEATHER AROUND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.
WHILE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...SOUTH OF HERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES ARE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HURRICANE IDA IS SPINNING JUST
ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING IN THE WESTERN GOMEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO HOME...CIRRUS CLOUDS WELL
AHEAD OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES HAVE KEPT A LID ON
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S. TO THE NORTHWEST...A COLD
FRONT IS TRAILING A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH
AS DRY WEATHER AND INCREASING CLOUDS PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY DETERIORATES AS IDA
BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...INTERACTS WITH WESTERN GOMEX
SHORTWAVE...AND IS EVENTUALLY SHUNTED EAST ACROSS GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO HANDLE IDAS REMNANTS AND THE GOMEX
SHORTWAVES RATHER DIFFERENTLY...AND GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
REMNANT SURFACE LOW TO THE CWFA...THESE SMALL DEVIATIONS IN FORECAST
TRACK ARE INCREASING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. LATEST MODEL RUNS
INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL START ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND AS THE REMNANT CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHEAST...PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL LAYS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR COULD
SEE 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
EVENT...HAVE OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND HAVE ALSO ISSUED AN FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY OPT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OTHER CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM CENTERS AROUND GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ON MONDAY...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
DEVELOP AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH 40 TO
50KT AT 2K FT ON TUESDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AGAIN...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT MAY END UP WITH A WIND ADVISORY DOWN THE
LINE.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 50 71 53 63 47 / 0 10 60 70 20
SHOALS 50 72 54 64 46 / 0 10 60 60 10
VINEMONT 50 72 54 63 48 / 0 10 70 70 20
FAYETTEVILLE 47 70 52 63 46 / 0 10 60 70 20
ALBERTVILLE 47 72 54 63 49 / 0 10 80 80 20
FORT PAYNE 45 70 52 62 48 / 0 10 80 90 20
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JLL
000
FXUS64 KBMX 081751
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1151 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE DENSE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR HOURLY TRENDS AND TO GENERALLY
LOWER CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM
INTO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.
14
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BEGIN TO SEE A GREATER IMPACT
FROM HURRICANE IDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3-5 KTS TONIGHT. BKN MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... AFFECTING
MGM/TOI BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL TIGHTEN RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 8 AND 13
KNOTS FROM THE EAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TOMORROW AFTN AND
EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
14
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FROM DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 30
PERCENT...BUT WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 081725 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1125 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND
E TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1023 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
MID MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WITH LIGHT SERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TN VLY. IR IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE (ASSOCIATED WITH IDA) TRYING TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTN.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE AFTN INCLUDE FCST MAX TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS (POSSIBLE RED FLAG CRITERIA). BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S AS OF 16Z...EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REACH THE MID 70S BY MID AFTN. DWPTS WERE RUNNING IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS TREND IS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY THIS TIME. ALSO EXPECT VERTICAL MIXING TO BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH RIDGE SFC/ALOFT IN THE VICINITY.
THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...MAINLY FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTN MAX TEMPS.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...15
DISCUSSION...15
000
FXUS64 KBMX 081626
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1025 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY...WITH HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING MORE DENSE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING A BIT WARMER THAN
EXPECTED. WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR HOURLY TRENDS AND TO GENERALLY
LOWER CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM
INTO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE.
14
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS HURRICANE IDA STRENGTHENS IN THE GULF...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL TIGHTEN
RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN AROUND
5 KNOTS AT MGM AND TOI.
12/SIRMON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 081622 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1023 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...MID MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH LIGHT SERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TN
VLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE (ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA) TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IS KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN.
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE AFTN INCLUDE FCST MAX TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS (POSSIBLE RED FLAG CRITERIA). BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS...TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S AS OF 16Z...EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REACH THE MID 70S BY MID AFTN. DWPTS WERE RUNNING IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. THIS TREND IS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY THIS TIME. ALSO EXPECT VERTICAL MIXING TO BE
TEMPERED SOMEWHAT TODAY WITH RIDGE SFC/ALOFT IN THE VICINITY.
THUS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY...MAINLY FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
AFTN MAX TEMPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...MONDAY/TUESDAY...THINKING ATTM THAT UPPER HIGH WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER OUR CWA TO KEEP OUT ANY PCPN (FOR THE 3RD
PERIOD). AS IDA APPROACHES THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MRNG THE CHC OF PCPN WILL INCREASE. COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF PCPN WILL
ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF IDA. ATTM THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF IDA HAS
IT TURNING NE BY WEDNESDAY MRNG....OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.
BOTTOM LINE...THINK THE ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE PCPN BEFORE IT ENDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. HOWEVER OUR EXTREME SERN ZONES WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
RECEIVING HEAVIER RAIN. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX THRU THIS TIME
FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...STRONG RIDGING WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
SATURDAY...RIDGE MOVES EAST AS ANOTHER CDFNT APPROACHES...THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND
E TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
PREV DISCUSSION...07
DISCUSSION...15
000
FXUS64 KHUN 081124
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
524 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND
E TO SE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS...BUT DID LEAN A LITTLE MORE
TOWARDS THE GFS. DISREGARDED THE ECMWF. BIG WX NEWS IS IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WAS MOVING
NW AT 12 MPH. OTHERWISE LARGE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE SERN US.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SINCE LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER
70S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SCT CI CLOUDS TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA BUT DONT THINK THEY WILL HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
TEMPS. MORE CI CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...THINKING ATTM THAT UPPER HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER OUR CWA TO KEEP OUT ANY PCPN (FOR THE 3RD PERIOD). AS IDA
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MRNG THE CHC OF PCPN
WILL INCREASE. COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF PCPN WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK
OF IDA. ATTM THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF IDA HAS IT TURNING NE BY
WEDNESDAY MRNG....OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.
BOTTOM LINE...THINK THE ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE PCPN BEFORE IT ENDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. HOWEVER OUR EXTREME SERN ZONES WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
RECEIVING HEAVIER RAIN. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX THRU THIS TIME
FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...STRONG RIDGING WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
SATURDAY...RIDGE MOVES EAST AS ANOTHER CDFNT APPROACHES...THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BCC
DISCUSSION...07
000
FXUS64 KBMX 081116
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF NICE WEATHER BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE IDA.
ONLY CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS...AS AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOISTEN UP ON MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS HURRICANE IDA PUSHES
CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE ON
MONDAY WILL BE INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS...AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH REGARD TO FORECAST
MOVEMENT OF IDA. IT IS FINALLY SHOWING IDA BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF INSTEAD OF TRACKING BACK WEST TOWARDS TEXAS...
BUT IT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AND MUCH
LESS RAINFALL ON NORTH SIDE OF CYCLONE. IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ACROSS NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO ZONE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON NORTH SIDE OF IDA...CLOSE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF AXIS. HPC IS ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TOTALS OF 3-4
INCHES. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF ROTATING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IDA WILL GET ABSORBED PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO SHORT WAVE
TROF AND ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...SO
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXITING EAST ALABAMA BY
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 10-20
MPH RANGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACK SIDE
OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
NO RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS
NORTH ALABAMA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND KEPT
SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. AS HURRICANE IDA STRENGTHENS IN THE GULF...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL TIGHTEN
RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN AROUND
5 KNOTS AT MGM AND TOI.
12/SIRMON
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 081023
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
422 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE WIND LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A NORTHWARD MOVING IDA INTERACTS WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST. AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
RAINFALL FROM IDA UNTIL MONDAY. AS IDA MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEX
TODAY...AM EXPECTING SWELLS FROM IDA TO BEGIN REACHING THE FA
TONIGHT...CAUSING COASTAL WATER PROBLEMS...THOUGH A DECREASING TIDAL
RANGE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THAT.
/16
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IDA SHOULD BE
ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE AND NEAR ITS PEAK STRENGTH. ALSO
ABOUT THE TIME SHE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME RAIN MAY BE ONGOING
MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE ONSET OF HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. 6 HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ABOUT WHAT THE STORM TOTAL QPF IS SO AM NOT
ANTICIPATING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THE MOMENT. INCREASING WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND BEACHES
WITH A WIND ADVISORY LIKELY REQUIRED BY MONDAY EVENING FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES. AS IDA BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL THE WIND FIELD WILL
EXPAND AND THE SPEEDS WILL LOWER A BIT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS AS IDA AND
THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...MOST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY MORNING AND EASTERN SECTIONS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IDA
OR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MAKES IT CLOSER APPROACH TO THE COAST
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST. RAIN ENDING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING IN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL AND MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE VARIOUS
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. IF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...SHOULD BE ISSUED LATER BY THE HURRICANE
CENTER THEN THE SPECIFIC INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE HLS. /11
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) NO RAIN IN FORECAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DID PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE BACK IN FOR
SATURDAY OVER THE WEST AS MOISTURE BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN THE
PICTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. /11
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)AS IDA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX
TODAY...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE..THOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GENERALLY ABOVE 12K`. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AS THE COMBINATION OF IDA APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINA COAST CREATES A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. CURRENT NHC FORECAST PUTS RAINBANDS STARTING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. /16
&&
.MARINE...IDA WILL START MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY....WITH THE CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
MARINE FA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH NHC EXPECTING IDA TO BEGIN
TRANSITIONING TO EXTRA-TROPICAL...NO TROPICAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
ARE EXPECTED ATTM...THOUGH THIS MAY CHANGE. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY
PATH OF IDA...CLOSER TO THE FA...STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED...ALONG
WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME UNDER THE INFLUENCE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THE FA BUMPING STORM LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AM
HOLDING OFF ISSUING A STORM WATCH/WARNING ATTM...GIVING SOME TIME
FOR THE CURRENT CHANGES TO PROPAGATE.
FOR THE FORECAST...SCA LEVEL WINDS/SEAS INTO TONIGHT...WITH GALES
ARRIVING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK
INTO SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
/16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES WILL BE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THEN BECOMING NORTH AS IDA MOVES EAST. DRIER AIR BACK IN
THE AREA BY MID WEEK...BUT NOT FORECAST LOW ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG OR
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 74 60 70 62 / 05 20 80 90
PENSACOLA 74 63 70 64 / 05 05 80 90
DESTIN 75 67 72 66 / 05 05 70 90
EVERGREEN 74 55 73 62 / 00 05 60 90
WAYNESBORO 74 55 70 57 / 05 10 80 80
CAMDEN 74 54 73 59 / 00 05 60 90
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND
COASTAL SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL
TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM
DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM
PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 080944
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
344 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS...BUT DID LEAN
A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE GFS. DISREGARDED THE ECMWF. BIG WX NEWS
IS IDA IS NOW A HURRICANE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WAS MOVING NW AT 12 MPH. OTHERWISE LARGE UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES OVER THE SERN US.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SINCE LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS WILL GO WITH MID/UPPER
70S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SCT CI CLOUDS TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH IDA BUT DONT THINK THEY WILL HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON TEMPS. MORE
CI CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...THINKING ATTM THAT UPPER HIGH WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH OVER OUR CWA TO KEEP OUT ANY PCPN (FOR THE 3RD PERIOD).
AS IDA APPROACHES THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MRNG THE CHC
OF PCPN WILL INCREASE. COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF PCPN WILL ALL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF IDA. ATTM THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF IDA HAS IT TURNING NE
BY WEDNESDAY MRNG....OVER THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.
BOTTOM LINE...THINK THE ENTIRE CWA WILL SEE PCPN BEFORE IT ENDS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. HOWEVER OUR EXTREME SERN ZONES WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHC OF
RECEIVING HEAVIER RAIN. ALSO NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX THRU THIS
TIME FRAME.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...STRONG RIDGING WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.
SATURDAY...RIDGE MOVES EAST AS ANOTHER CDFNT APPROACHES...THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF PCPN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 77 48 70 53 64 / 0 0 10 40 50
SHOALS 78 49 71 54 65 / 0 0 10 40 50
VINEMONT 78 49 71 54 65 / 0 0 10 40 50
FAYETTEVILLE 75 46 69 52 63 / 0 0 10 40 50
ALBERTVILLE 78 50 71 54 65 / 0 0 10 40 50
FORT PAYNE 75 46 69 52 62 / 0 0 10 40 50
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KBMX 080943
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
343 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF NICE WEATHER BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF HURRICANE IDA.
ONLY CLOUDS TODAY WILL BE PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS...AS AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO
MOISTEN UP ON MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS HURRICANE IDA PUSHES
CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE ON
MONDAY WILL BE INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS...AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH REGARD TO FORECAST
MOVEMENT OF IDA. IT IS FINALLY SHOWING IDA BECOMING ABSORBED INTO
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF INSTEAD OF TRACKING BACK WEST TOWARDS TEXAS...
BUT IT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AND MUCH
LESS RAINFALL ON NORTH SIDE OF CYCLONE. IDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ACROSS NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO ZONE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON NORTH SIDE OF IDA...CLOSE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROF AXIS. HPC IS ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH TOTALS OF 3-4
INCHES. MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED IN LATER FORECASTS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM SECTOR
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY THREAT OF ROTATING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
IDA WILL GET ABSORBED PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO SHORT WAVE
TROF AND ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL LIFT QUICKLY EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...SO
MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXITING EAST ALABAMA BY
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 10-20
MPH RANGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT ON BACK SIDE
OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
NO RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT TOWARDS
NORTH ALABAMA NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND KEPT
SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN FOR SATURDAY.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CIG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ONLY CONCERNS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE MVFR VIS AT TCL/ANB AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN CALM AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE TO 2 OR 3. THIS BR SHOULD BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.
27
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 74 43 69 53 63 / 0 10 10 80 90
ANNISTON 74 48 69 56 64 / 0 10 20 80 90
BIRMINGHAM 75 53 72 56 66 / 0 10 20 80 70
TUSCALOOSA 75 51 72 61 68 / 0 10 30 80 60
CALERA 75 52 72 59 66 / 0 10 30 80 80
AUBURN 75 52 70 59 67 / 0 10 30 100 90
MONTGOMERY 75 53 72 61 68 / 0 10 50 90 90
TROY 75 52 71 63 70 / 0 10 50 100 90
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 080541 AAB
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH MOISTURE CLOUD SHIELD
MOVING NWD ACROSS GULF. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCH INTO AREA
TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUN AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS GULF. OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
LOOK FINE.
08
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CIG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ONLY CONCERNS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE MVFR VIS AT TCL/ANB AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN CALM AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE TO 2 OR 3. THIS BR SHOULD BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.
27
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
08/27
000
FXUS64 KBMX 080541 AAB
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1141 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH MOISTURE CLOUD SHIELD
MOVING NWD ACROSS GULF. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCH INTO AREA
TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUN AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS GULF. OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
LOOK FINE.
08
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CIG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE ONLY CONCERNS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE MVFR VIS AT TCL/ANB AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN CALM AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE TO 2 OR 3. THIS BR SHOULD BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.
27
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
08/27
000
FXUS64 KHUN 080534 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1134 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS N AL.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 915 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/ SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST NORTHWEST OF TS
IDA. THESE CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT TO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS FINE.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SL.77
000
FXUS64 KMOB 080529 AAA
AFDMOB
.AVIATION...(06 UTC ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA.
SITES ACROSS THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
CREATING CROSS WINDS CONCERNS.
/08 JVW
*****************PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION************************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA NOT YET IN THE GULF
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STILL BEING THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. A MORE ESE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TODAY
HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB ACROSS THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING
LOWS TO BE AS COLD TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S FAR INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
OF COURSE THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL
STORM IDA. IDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS
VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IDA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AS IT TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS WATER TEMPS COOL AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE HOSTILE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATING IDA NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
IDA NEARING THE AL/NW FL COASTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST MOTION AND POSITION...THESE MODELS MAY
A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE WEST. REGARDLESS...IDA IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT IN A WEAKENED
STATE AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND EXPERIENCES
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IDA TO
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT AND TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM. EVEN WITH IDA WEAKENING...THERE WILL BE A
LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...LARGE SWELLS FROM IDA WILL BEGIN ARRIVING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. COMBINE ALL OF THIS WITH ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES RUNNING 1.0 TO JUST OVER 1.5 FEET...AND THE STAGE IS SET
FOR SOME COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS
WILL REACH ABOUT 3 TO 4 FEET...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF IDA STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
COASTAL ZONES.
IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE
WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES ENTERING THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL TROUGH`S DYNAMICS COMBINES WITH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
IDA. CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORM TOTALS IN THE
2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF THE EVENT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEARS THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST ARE A
POSSIBILITY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS TEMPERED MONDAY WITH RAIN
AND CLOUDS AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL. 34/JFB
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BY LATE
IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON HOW TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF IDA`S REMNANT
LOW. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS THE LOW EAST ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...BRINGING AN END TO MUCH OF THE RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS IDA BACK SOUTH INTO THE GULF WITH RAIN
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE THE MOS
GUIDANCE AND END MOST POPS BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME FINE TUNING
TO THIS FORECAST WILL CERTAINLY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK DRY AND SEASONABLE AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE FRI/SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A SURFACE FRONT STALLED OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTH. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO SATURDAY BASED ON THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE AREA. /13
&&
.MARINE...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND MUCH LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
A RESULT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE. IDA WILL RAPIDLY BECOME EXTRA
TROPICAL AS SHE NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND DISCUSSIONS BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI ON THE
TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. /13
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 54 77 63 72 / 00 05 30 80
PENSACOLA 55 76 63 74 / 00 05 20 70
DESTIN 60 76 65 74 / 00 05 10 60
EVERGREEN 45 76 56 72 / 00 05 10 70
WAYNESBORO 46 75 58 69 / 00 05 20 80
CAMDEN 43 75 55 70 / 00 05 10 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND
COASTAL SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 080329 AAB
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
929 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...FOR EVENING FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH MOISTURE CLOUD SHIELD
MOVING NWD ACROSS GULF. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCH INTO AREA
TONIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUN AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NWD ACROSS GULF. OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
LOOK FINE.
08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE SOUTH.
LOWS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED REGARDLESS OF
THE CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL FEATURES MAKE THE OVERALL
FORECAST EVOLUTION SOMEWHAT COMPLEX. THESE FEATURES INCLUDE THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA OFF COZUMEL
MEXICO...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
FINALLY THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKER TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER ON THE 07/12Z RUN WHILE
THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY. THE NAM JUST DOES NOT HANDLE THE
CURRENT FEATURES TOO WELL AND WILL NOT BE INPUT INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THINKING REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO EXIT STAGE
RIGHT...BUT ONCE IT DOES...QUITE A CHANCE IS IN STORE. WITH REGARD
TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA...IDA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
EXTRA-TROPICAL BY THE HURRICANE CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE DEVELOPMENTS IN
REGARD TO IDA. BUT IDA`S MOISTURE AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER
WEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIP WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND 2+ INCHES IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH 3 INCHES ANYWHERE
IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE NEARBY...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A KICKER TROUGH WILL PUSH ALL THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP THINGS BREEZY. INSTABILITY LOOKS NON-EXISTENT FOR THE MOST
PART FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT AND ONLY MENTIONED RAIN AT THIS TIME.
DO NOT SEE ANY GLARING REASONS TO DEVIATE FROM MOS...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESSER RAIN CHANCES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE KICKER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE RAIN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SEASONAL CONDITIONS AREA WIDE UNTIL SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND AT THIS TIME ONLY
ADDED VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
75
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST...SO EXPECT VFR CIG
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN SHOULD
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR VIS AT TCL AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FALL
TO ABOUT 3...JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
27
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 38 74 43 71 54 / 0 0 10 20 70
ANNISTON 40 75 47 72 53 / 0 0 10 20 70
BIRMINGHAM 45 75 54 71 54 / 0 0 10 30 80
TUSCALOOSA 42 75 52 71 57 / 0 0 10 50 80
CALERA 44 75 53 71 56 / 0 0 10 40 80
AUBURN 47 76 53 72 56 / 0 0 10 30 70
MONTGOMERY 44 76 54 74 59 / 0 0 10 40 90
TROY 43 76 55 74 59 / 0 0 10 40 80
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
08/75/27
000
FXUS64 KHUN 080315 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
915 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...FOR CHANGES TO DEWPOINTS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM A WEAK
SHORTWAVE JUST NORTHWEST OF TS IDA. THESE CLOUDS MAY MAKE IT TO
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE DEWPOINT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS FINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 25 PERCENT
GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
OVERNIGHT. HAVE THUS ALLOWED RFW TO EXPIRE.
&&
.AVIATION.../FROM 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ NO CHANGES. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SL.77
000
FXUS64 KMOB 080036 AAA
AFDMOB
.AVIATION...(00 UTC ISSUANCE)...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. SITES ACROSS THE
REGION WILL EXPERIENCE EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY POTENTIALLY CREATING CROSS WINDS CONCERNS.
/08 JVW
*****************PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION************************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA NOT YET IN THE GULF
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STILL BEING THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. A MORE ESE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TODAY
HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB ACROSS THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING
LOWS TO BE AS COLD TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S FAR INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
OF COURSE THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL
STORM IDA. IDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS
VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IDA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AS IT TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS WATER TEMPS COOL AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE HOSTILE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATING IDA NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
IDA NEARING THE AL/NW FL COASTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST MOTION AND POSITION...THESE MODELS MAY
A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE WEST. REGARDLESS...IDA IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT IN A WEAKENED
STATE AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND EXPERIENCES
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IDA TO
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT AND TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM. EVEN WITH IDA WEAKENING...THERE WILL BE A
LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...LARGE SWELLS FROM IDA WILL BEGIN ARRIVING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. COMBINE ALL OF THIS WITH ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES RUNNING 1.0 TO JUST OVER 1.5 FEET...AND THE STAGE IS SET
FOR SOME COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS
WILL REACH ABOUT 3 TO 4 FEET...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF IDA STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
COASTAL ZONES.
IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE
WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES ENTERING THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL TROUGH`S DYNAMICS COMBINES WITH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
IDA. CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORM TOTALS IN THE
2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF THE EVENT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEARS THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST ARE A
POSSIBILITY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS TEMPERED MONDAY WITH RAIN
AND CLOUDS AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL. 34/JFB
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BY LATE
IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON HOW TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF IDA`S REMNANT
LOW. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS THE LOW EAST ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...BRINGING AN END TO MUCH OF THE RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS IDA BACK SOUTH INTO THE GULF WITH RAIN
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE THE MOS
GUIDANCE AND END MOST POPS BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME FINE TUNING
TO THIS FORECAST WILL CERTAINLY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK DRY AND SEASONABLE AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE FRI/SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A SURFACE FRONT STALLED OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTH. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO SATURDAY BASED ON THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE AREA. /13
&&
.MARINE...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND MUCH LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
A RESULT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE. IDA WILL RAPIDLY BECOME EXTRA
TROPICAL AS SHE NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND DISCUSSIONS BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI ON THE
TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. /13
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 54 77 63 72 / 00 05 30 80
PENSACOLA 55 76 63 74 / 00 05 20 70
DESTIN 60 76 65 74 / 00 05 10 60
EVERGREEN 45 76 56 72 / 00 05 10 70
WAYNESBORO 46 75 58 69 / 00 05 20 80
CAMDEN 43 75 55 70 / 00 05 10 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND
COASTAL SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 072335
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
535 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE SOUTH.
LOWS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED REGARDLESS OF
THE CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL FEATURES MAKE THE OVERALL
FORECAST EVOLUTION SOMEWHAT COMPLEX. THESE FEATURES INCLUDE THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA OFF COZUMEL
MEXICO...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
FINALLY THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKER TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER ON THE 07/12Z RUN WHILE
THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY. THE NAM JUST DOES NOT HANDLE THE
CURRENT FEATURES TOO WELL AND WILL NOT BE INPUT INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THINKING REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO EXIT STAGE
RIGHT...BUT ONCE IT DOES...QUITE A CHANCE IS IN STORE. WITH REGARD
TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA...IDA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
EXTRA-TROPICAL BY THE HURRICANE CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE DEVELOPMENTS IN
REGARD TO IDA. BUT IDA`S MOISTURE AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER
WEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIP WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND 2+ INCHES IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH 3 INCHES ANYWHERE
IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE NEARBY...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A KICKER TROUGH WILL PUSH ALL THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP THINGS BREEZY. INSTABILITY LOOKS NON-EXISTENT FOR THE MOST
PART FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT AND ONLY MENTIONED RAIN AT THIS TIME.
DO NOT SEE ANY GLARING REASONS TO DEVIATE FROM MOS...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESSER RAIN CHANCES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE KICKER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE RAIN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SEASONAL CONDITIONS AREAWIDE UNTIL SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND AT THIS TIME ONLY
ADDED VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
75
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST...SO EXPECT VFR CIG
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CONCERN SHOULD
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR VIS AT TCL AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FALL
TO ABOUT 3...JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT.
27
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
75/27
000
FXUS64 KHUN 072329 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
529 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...FOR EXPIRATION OF RFW AND 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 25 PERCENT GIVEN
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
HAVE THUS ALLOWED RFW TO EXPIRE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE CONUS...ALBEIT A FEW SHORTWAVES NORTH OF
HERE...AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. JUST TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM IDA IS SPINNING OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ITS CIRRUS DECK BRUSHING THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO BEACHES. CLOSER TO HOME...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...DEWPOINTS
TOOK A RAPID DIVE SOUTH AS MIXING TO AROUND 2.5K-3K FEET ENSUED AS
TEMPERATURES SPIKED INTO THE MID 70S. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5PM.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
CONTROL THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN
/ESPECIALLY EAST/ BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S AGAIN TOMORROW. EXPECT
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AS MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...SO WITH AMPLE
MIXING...CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN FLIRT WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES AS IDA BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND EJECTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LATEST
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE DECAYING CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE STATE.
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE SOUTH OF HERE...AND THERE SHOULD BE A
SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWARD FRINGE OF THE RAIN
SHIELD. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF SOME PLACES IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AL DON`T SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. THAT SAID...IF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...PORTIONS OF
CULLMAN/MARSHALL/DEKALB COUNTIES COULD LOOK TO PICK UP 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...A 10-14MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE
TENNESSEE/ALABAMA STATE LINE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THESE GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK IDAS REMNANTS...SO
THESE WILL CERTAINLY BE TWEAKED BY LATER SHIFTS. TIMING ISSUES
BETWEEN NAM AND THE GFS/ECMWF STILL PLAGUE THE FORECAST...BUT UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL PUNCH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE VALLEY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
H5 TROUGH JOGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
PREV DISCUSSION...JLL
UPDATE/AVIATION...SL.77
000
FXUS64 KMOB 072136
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) VERY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA NOT YET IN THE GULF
AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STILL BEING THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. A MORE ESE COMPONENT TO THE WIND TODAY
HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB ACROSS THE AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING
LOWS TO BE AS COLD TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S FAR INLAND TO MID 50S
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
OF COURSE THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL
STORM IDA. IDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS
VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IDA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AS IT TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER...AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AS WATER TEMPS COOL AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME MORE HOSTILE. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATING IDA NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
IDA NEARING THE AL/NW FL COASTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...BASED ON THE LATEST MOTION AND POSITION...THESE MODELS MAY
A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE WEST. REGARDLESS...IDA IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...BUT IN A WEAKENED
STATE AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND EXPERIENCES
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IDA TO
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT AND TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM. EVEN WITH IDA WEAKENING...THERE WILL BE A
LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THIS CAUSES A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SAME TIME...LARGE SWELLS FROM IDA WILL BEGIN ARRIVING EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY. COMBINE ALL OF THIS WITH ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES RUNNING 1.0 TO JUST OVER 1.5 FEET...AND THE STAGE IS SET
FOR SOME COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS
WILL REACH ABOUT 3 TO 4 FEET...BUT COULD BE HIGHER IF IDA STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
COASTAL ZONES.
IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE
WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES ENTERING THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL TROUGH`S DYNAMICS COMBINES WITH THE MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
IDA. CERTAINLY COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORM TOTALS IN THE
2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. BASED ON THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND THE
EXPECTED DURATION OF THE EVENT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEARS THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST ARE A
POSSIBILITY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
STAYED CLOSE TO GFS MOS ON TEMPS WITH HIGHS TEMPERED MONDAY WITH RAIN
AND CLOUDS AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL. 34/JFB
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE BY LATE
IN THE DAY TUESDAY ON HOW TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF IDA`S REMNANT
LOW. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS THE LOW EAST ALONG WITH THE
FRONT...BRINGING AN END TO MUCH OF THE RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE ECMWF SHIFTS IDA BACK SOUTH INTO THE GULF WITH RAIN
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE THE MOS
GUIDANCE AND END MOST POPS BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. SOME FINE TUNING
TO THIS FORECAST WILL CERTAINLY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK DRY AND SEASONABLE AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE FRI/SAT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A SURFACE FRONT STALLED OVER THE GULF BEGINS TO RETREAT
NORTH. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO SATURDAY BASED ON THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT. 34/JFB
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE AREA. /13
&&
.MARINE...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND MUCH LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AS
A RESULT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE. IDA WILL RAPIDLY BECOME EXTRA
TROPICAL AS SHE NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA...A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND DISCUSSIONS BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI ON THE
TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. /13
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. A SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 54 77 63 72 / 00 05 30 80
PENSACOLA 55 76 63 74 / 00 05 20 70
DESTIN 60 76 65 74 / 00 05 10 60
EVERGREEN 45 76 56 72 / 00 05 10 70
WAYNESBORO 46 75 58 69 / 00 05 20 80
CAMDEN 43 75 55 70 / 00 05 10 70
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND
COASTAL SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND MOBILE BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 072130
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
330 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE CONUS...ALBEIT A FEW SHORTWAVES NORTH OF
HERE...AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. JUST TO THE
SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM IDA IS SPINNING OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ITS CIRRUS DECK BRUSHING THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
BEACHES. CLOSER TO HOME...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...DEWPOINTS TOOK A
RAPID DIVE SOUTH AS MIXING TO AROUND 2.5K-3K FEET ENSUED AS
TEMPERATURES SPIKED INTO THE MID 70S. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5PM.
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
CONTROL THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN
/ESPECIALLY EAST/ BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 70S AGAIN TOMORROW. EXPECT
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW AS MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED...SO WITH AMPLE
MIXING...CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN FLIRT WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES AS IDA BEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND EJECTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LATEST
SUITE OF MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE DECAYING CIRCULATION
WILL TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE STATE.
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE SOUTH OF HERE...AND THERE SHOULD BE A
SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWARD FRINGE OF THE RAIN
SHIELD. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF SOME PLACES IN EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN AL DON`T SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. THAT SAID...IF THE
DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH...PORTIONS OF
CULLMAN/MARSHLL/DEKALB COUNTIES COULD LOOK TO PICK UP 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...A 10-14MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE
TENNESSEE/ALABAMA STATE LINE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...AND
SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OF COURSE...THE
MAGNITUDE OF THESE GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK IDAS REMNANTS...SO
THESE WILL CERTAINLY BE TWEAKED BY LATER SHIFTS. TIMING ISSUES
BETWEEN NAM AND THE GFS/ECMWF STILL PLAGUE THE FORECAST...BUT UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL PUNCH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING
USHERING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE VALLEY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
H5 TROUGH JOGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE STILL RUNNING BELOW 25 PERCENT AT THE
CURRENT HOUR...AND WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING GOING UNTIL
5PM AS SCHEDULED. PLEASE SEE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 43 75 50 71 52 / 0 0 0 10 50
SHOALS 43 74 51 72 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
VINEMONT 46 74 50 72 53 / 0 0 0 20 60
FAYETTEVILLE 41 73 50 70 53 / 0 0 0 10 40
ALBERTVILLE 41 74 46 72 52 / 0 0 0 10 60
FORT PAYNE 36 73 43 70 51 / 0 0 0 10 60
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
MORGAN.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
JLL
000
FXUS64 KBMX 072122
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
322 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD BY MONDAY.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD...WITH HIGH RAIN
CHANCES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN
MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH 3 INCH
TOTAL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT FRONT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SATURDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WEATHER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE PICTURE SOUTH.
LOWS WILL BE VERY SEASONAL IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED REGARDLESS OF
THE CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL FEATURES MAKE THE OVERALL
FORECAST EVOLUTION SOMEWHAT COMPLEX. THESE FEATURES INCLUDE THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL NEAR HE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA OFF COZUMEL
MEXICO...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
FINALLY THE NORTHERN STREAM KICKER TROUGH BY TUESDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT IN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER ON THE 07/12Z RUN WHILE
THE GFS REMAINS FAIRLY STEADY. THE NAM JUST DOES NOT HANDLE THE
CURRENT FEATURES TOO WELL AND WILL NOT BE INPUT INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL THINKING REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO EXIT STAGE
RIGHT...BUT ONCE IT DOES...QUITE A CHANCE IS IN STORE. WITH REGARD
TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA...IDA IS FORECASTED TO BECOME
EXTRA-TROPICAL BY THE HURRICANE CENTER BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OF THE DEVELOPMENTS IN
REGARD TO IDA. BUT IDA`S MOISTURE AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER
WEST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE PRECIP WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND 2+ INCHES IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH 3 INCHES ANYWHERE
IN CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE NEARBY...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A KICKER TROUGH WILL PUSH ALL THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP THINGS BREEZY. INSTABILITY LOOKS NON-EXISTENT FOR THE MOST
PART FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT AND ONLY MENTIONED RAIN AT THIS TIME.
DO NOT SEE ANY GLARING REASONS TO DEVIATE FROM MOS...ESPECIALLY FOR
LESSER RAIN CHANCES. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS IN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE KICKER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE RAIN.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SEASONAL CONDITIONS AREAWIDE UNTIL SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND AT THIS TIME ONLY
ADDED VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
75
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND
WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-6 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.
COULD SEE SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
TONIGHT FROM DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE GULF...BUT SHOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY AVIATION CONCERNS. CANT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS DUE TO
FOG AT TCL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.
14
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 38 74 43 71 54 / 0 0 10 20 70
ANNISTON 40 75 47 72 53 / 0 0 10 20 70
BIRMINGHAM 45 75 54 71 54 / 0 0 10 30 80
TUSCALOOSA 42 75 52 71 57 / 0 0 10 50 80
CALERA 44 75 53 71 56 / 0 0 10 40 80
AUBURN 47 76 53 72 56 / 0 0 10 30 70
MONTGOMERY 44 76 54 74 59 / 0 0 10 40 90
TROY 43 76 55 74 59 / 0 0 10 40 80
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
75/75/14
000
FXUS64 KHUN 071923 AAD
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
121 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
TO ADDRESS ISSUANCE OF RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES HAVE QUICKLY PLUMMETED THIS AFTN...IN DEFERENCE TO
EARLIER SUITE OF GUIDANCE. MIXING HAS BECOME DEEPER THAN
EXPECTED...WITH VERY DRY AIR (DEW POINTS BELOW 20F ABOVE ~2.5KFT)
BECOMING MIXED INTO THE BOUNDARY LYR. AS A RESULT DEW POINT TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH EFFICIENT
HEATING LEADING TO TEMP RISES INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. RESULTING RH
VALUES ARE GENERALLY BTWN 20-25 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS...AND THIS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM CST. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH
WINDS DO NOT MEET SPECIFIC CRITERIA...GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY PROMOTE
THE RAPID SPREADING OR GROWTH OF FIRE. IN LIGHT OF
ABOVE...RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN RAISED. CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR
ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.
&&
.AVIATION... /FROM 18Z ISSUANCE. NO CHANGES./
S-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. MIXING
WILL ABATE BY 00Z AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN
AL...JACKSON...
LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL... MORGAN.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
KDW
000
FXUS64 KHUN 071751 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1149 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
S-SW WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN. MIXING
WILL ABATE BY 00Z AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED DIURNAL
CURVE IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND A LITTLE BELOW MAINLY IN OUR TN
COUNTIES. THUS...ADJUSTED TEMPS UP OR DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
NECESSARY. HIGHS WILL STILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70-75F...WITH UPR
60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS MAY MAY GUST 15-20 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTN...MAINLY IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING RED FLAG
CRITERIA RH VALUES TODAY...WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE
AND FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
KDW
000
FXUS64 KMOB 071730 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 071711
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1111 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE US WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM DISTURBANCES
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THESE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON OVERALL CONDITIONS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED...AND WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
14
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND
WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-6 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET.
COULD SEE SCT HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
TONIGHT FROM DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE GULF...BUT SHOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY AVIATION CONCERNS. CANT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS DUE TO
FOG AT TCL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 071639
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1039 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...MORNING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR EAST WILL PROVIDE US WITH CLEAR SKIES AND EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. COULD SEE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM DISTURBANCES
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THESE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON OVERALL CONDITIONS.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED...AND WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR HOURLY TEMP TRENDS. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
14
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
PATCHY FOG AT TCL SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 1300Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 071618 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1016 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS/DEW POINTS TO FOLLOW LATEST
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED DIURNAL
CURVE IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND A LITTLE BELOW MAINLY IN OUR TN
COUNTIES. THUS...ADJUSTED TEMPS UP OR DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS
NECESSARY. HIGHS WILL STILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 70-75F...WITH UPR
60S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS MAY MAY GUST 15-20 MPH AT TIMES
THIS AFTN...MAINLY IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NOT EXPECTING RED
FLAG CRITERIA RH VALUES TODAY...WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LYR
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION... /FROM 12Z TAFS. NO CHANGES./
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009...
TODAY/SUNDAY...COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE/VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR
THE WINDS TO BECOME S/SE WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
F0R THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL TEAM UP
WITH AN UPPER TROF/TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...TO PRODUCE A CHC
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. NAM SHOWS THAT THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF/GFS HAS THE SHOWERS BEGINNING BY
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GFS.
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE VERY WEAK SO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE
IS THAT THE ECMWF/GFS KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO OUR SOUTH...WE MAY
JUST GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...PCPN SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY...HOWEVER ANOTHER CDFNT WILL BE
HEADING OUR WAY BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF
PCPN OVER THE CWA.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KDW
AVIATION...BCC
PREV DISCUSSION...07
000
FXUS64 KBMX 071113
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A NICE WEEKEND ON TAP FOR ALABAMA FOR A CHANGE WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AND BRING IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ALL
EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS AS TROPICAL STORM IDA TRACKS NORTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT LIKELY DIRECTLY
IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING TOWARDS LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS
(GFS,GEM,ECMWF) AND THE REGIONAL NAM MODEL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
TOTALS DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT FOR T.S. IDA AS IT MERGES WITH SHORT WAVE
TROF. THE NAM MODEL KEEPS IDA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
EVEN SHOWS IT SHIFTING WESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR IDA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET
PICKED UP BY ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROF...AND WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GRADIENT
WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF IDA COULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD SHOULD PULL EAST OF ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF COULD PICK UP JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
PATCHY FOG AT TCL SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 1300Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 071110 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
610 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 320 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009...
LARGE UPPER HIGH WAS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN US WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS SO
DRY OVER OUR CWA...DON`T EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MAKE IT THIS FAR
SOUTH. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARND THE AREA WERE IN THE MID 40S WITH A FEW
COLD SPOTS OF ARND 40. WINDS ARE LIGHT.
TODAY/SUNDAY...COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE/VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP SKIES SUNNY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR THE
WINDS TO BECOME S/SE WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND F0R
THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL TEAM UP
WITH AN UPPER TROF/TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...TO PRODUCE A CHC
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. NAM SHOWS THAT THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF/GFS HAS THE SHOWERS BEGINNING BY
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GFS.
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE VERY WEAK SO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE
IS THAT THE ECMWF/GFS KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO OUR SOUTH...WE MAY
JUST GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...PCPN SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY...HOWEVER ANOTHER CDFNT WILL BE
HEADING OUR WAY BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHC OF
PCPN OVER THE CWA.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BCC
DISCUSSION...07
000
FXUS64 KMOB 071000
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
400 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FL ATLANTIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO DEFLECT A SHORT APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ...WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMING EAST
OVER THE CONUS/CA BORDER...WILL STRETCH EASTWARD THIS SURFACE RIDGE.
AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE CENTER OF IDA IS EXPECTED TO
START APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WITH THE MOS TENDING TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...FOR TODAY`S
TEMPS...HAVE TRIED TO ROUND GUIDANCE DOWN A BIT...MAINTAINING THE
TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
/16
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS AND
SPREADS EAST WITH TIME. TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF SUNDAY EVENING. MAY BEGAN TO SEE SOME
ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIGHT RAIN SPREADING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AN H5
TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA MONDAY WILL INCREASE THE RAIN AND KEEP
IT GOING INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LATEST THINKING
IS IDA WILL TURN NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY THEN SOUTHEAST LATER ON
TUESDAY AS SHE GETS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND BEGINS THE
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR
DETAILS CONCERNING THE COASTAL WATERS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IDA MOVES NORTH WILL MAKE FOR SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AND A BIT STRONGER WINDS ALONG
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL ZONES. A GOOD CHANCE
THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. TIDE LEVELS HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL THE LAST
TWO HIGH TIDES AND WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THE HIGH TIDE
PERIOD LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE WATER LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SOME HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
FROM ORANGE BEACH EAST TO DESTIN THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. /11
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...IDA SHOULD BE AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AND WEAKENING AS SHE PULLS AWAY...POSSIBLY
BACK TO THE SOUTH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. RAIN WILL BE
ENDING BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS LIKELY TO SEE TWO INCHES OF MORE
OVER THE EVENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK
WHEN THEY WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. /11
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE AREA. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS ATTM.
/16
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY WILL
GET STRETCHED BY ABUNDANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OVER THE CONUS/CA
BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULT IS A GENERAL EASTERLY. IDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTH...HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF...WITH MODERATE FLOW BECOMING STRONG
BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. AS IDA
MOVES PAST CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY LATE SUDNAY...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
IN THE COMING WEEK WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK. THIS
IS LATER THAN YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING...SO THE FARTHEST
NORTH POINT OF IDA`S TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH. THE
CENTER AND SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THE 34 KNOTS WINDS STILL REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. /16
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...LOWEST HUMIDITY AROUND 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH CONTINUING. MOST
PLACES SHOULD GET A SOAKING RAIN ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 76 52 75 61 / 00 00 05 30
PENSACOLA 74 56 74 62 / 00 00 05 30
DESTIN 73 63 76 64 / 00 00 05 20
EVERGREEN 75 43 76 54 / 00 00 05 20
WAYNESBORO 76 44 74 57 / 00 00 05 20
CAMDEN 75 42 76 54 / 00 00 05 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 070927
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
327 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A NICE WEEKEND ON TAP FOR ALABAMA FOR A CHANGE WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AND BRING IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ALL
EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS AS TROPICAL STORM IDA TRACKS NORTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT LIKELY DIRECTLY
IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING TOWARDS LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS
(GFS,GEM,ECMWF) AND THE REGIONAL NAM MODEL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
TOTALS DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT FOR T.S. IDA AS IT MERGES WITH SHORT WAVE
TROF. THE NAM MODEL KEEPS IDA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
EVEN SHOWS IT SHIFTING WESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR IDA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET
PICKED UP BY ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROF...AND WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GRADIENT
WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF IDA COULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD SHOULD PULL EAST OF ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF COULD PICK UP JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT WITH ROUGHLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY...GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE IN THE FORECAST
WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 71 35 73 44 69 / 0 0 0 10 20
ANNISTON 73 40 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 73 45 75 54 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 75 42 75 55 71 / 0 0 0 10 30
CALERA 74 46 76 54 70 / 0 0 0 10 20
AUBURN 71 46 74 54 70 / 0 0 0 10 20
MONTGOMERY 75 44 76 54 73 / 0 0 0 10 30
TROY 75 42 76 53 73 / 0 0 0 10 30
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 070920
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE UPPER HIGH WAS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN US WITH A WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS SO DRY OVER OUR CWA...DONT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MAKE IT THIS
FAR SOUTH. OTHERWISE TEMPS ARND THE AREA WERE IN THE MID 40S WITH
A FEW COLD SPOTS OF ARND 40. WINDS ARE LIGHT.
TODAY/SUNDAY...COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE/VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME S/SE WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND F0R THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL TEAM UP
WITH AN UPPER TROF/TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...TO PRODUCE A CHC
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. NAM SHOWS THAT THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF/GFS HAS THE SHOWERS BEGINNING BY
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GFS.
INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE VERY WEAK SO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
ANY TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ANOTHER THING
TO NOTE IS THAT THE ECMWF/GFS KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO OUR
SOUTH...WE MAY JUST GET SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS NEXT
SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...PCPN SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY
WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPS MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY...HOWEVER ANOTHER CDFNT WILL
BE HEADING OUR WAY BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHC
OF PCPN OVER THE CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 72 42 74 49 71 / 0 0 0 10 10
SHOALS 73 43 75 50 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
VINEMONT 73 43 75 50 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 71 40 73 47 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 73 44 75 51 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
FORT PAYNE 70 40 73 48 70 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS64 KMOB 070539 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1134 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
06 UTC TAF CYCLE.
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION.
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL MAKE PATCHY SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER SOURCES AND LOW LYING AREAS WHICH
COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES NEAR THE SURFACE TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. 08/JVW
*****************************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*********************
.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SATURDAY]...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...MOVES EASTWARD TO OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A LARGE HIGH WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT GOING WELL BACK INTO EASTERN TEXAS. WILL REMAIN
RAINFREE IN THE NEAR TERM AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED
OVER THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE GULF...IN THE VICINITY OF AN OLD
TROF OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. COOLEST TEMPERATURES =>MID 30S TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STRONGEST AND
WINDS LIGHTER. DAYTIME HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S ON AVERAGE. /10
.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO HOLD INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES. MEANWHILE...A MORE
COMPLICATED PICTURE WILL BE EVOLVING OVER THE GULF. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODELS OF THE GFS...CANADIAN...UKMET AND EURO VARY ON THEIR
HANDLING OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE OLD SURFACE TROF OVER THE GULF
AND HOW IDA INTERACTS WITH IT. UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ALLOWS HEIGHT FALLS TO SPREAD OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO PULL LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE GULF...NORTHWARD. INITIALLY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...A NON-TROPICAL WAVE OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY AND
BEGIN LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS
FEATURE THEN LOOKS TO MERGE WITHIN THE BROADENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF
WHAT WILL BE TROPICAL STORM IDA...MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF ON MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TRANSITIONS IDA INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY OVER
THE EASTERN GULF.
WILL BE MOVING INTO A WET PERIOD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN CONCERNS THOUGH WILL BE OVER THE MARINE AREA AND COASTAL
ZONES AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STRONG
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS. CONSIDERING THE
LATEST FORECAST OF WINDS AND THAT WE ARE MOVING THROUGH A SPRING
TIDAL CYCLE...WHERE THERE ARE LARGE RANGES BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW
TIDE...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL ZONES BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
FORECASTERS FEEL THAT PROBLEMS COULD BEGIN ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...INCLUDING THE WESTERN COAST OF MOBILE BAY BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WE APPROACH HIGHER TIDES. AT SAME TIME 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF
EASTERLY WINDS IMPINGE ALONG THE COAST. WE ARE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
WINDOW FOR ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT ONE WILL
LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING ON LATER SHIFTS.
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF IDA AND ITS COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH THE NON-
TROPICAL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED.
IF IDA MOVES FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...A STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...ENHANCING THE COASTAL FLOODING
THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. STAY TUNED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION
BY MID AND LATE WEEK...WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA LOOKS TO BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR AREA BEING ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. DID TWEAK DAYTIME HIGHS LOWER MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO
THE IMPACT OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND EASTERLY WINDS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /10
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF CYCLE]...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF
OUR WEATHER. 34/JFB
&&
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND A NON-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WELL OFFSHORE
HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS ALREADY TODAY
AND WILL BE CLOSE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE SCA SO WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING IN FOR TONIGHT. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED SCA BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES EXCEPT MOBILE BAY AS WINDS APPROACH 20 KT AND SEAS BUILD
TO NEAR 5 FT CLOSE TO SHORE TO 7 FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS
LOOK TO ONLY INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR MOBILE BAY. AS IDA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
ON MONDAY...IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A NON TROPICAL
LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN
GULF. INCREASED SWELL AND WINDS APPROACHING NEAR GALE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALSO...THE
INCREASED SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CREATE TIDES ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE
NORMAL. IF IDA AND THE NON TROPICAL LOW MERGE FURTHER WEST THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY
MONDAY...WHICH WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE TIDE LEVELS AND THE COASTAL
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA...REFER TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN
MIAMI. 34/JFB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS
IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL STEADILY INCREASE BY SUNDAY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
THAT BEGINS TO EASE NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS RAINFREE. LOWEST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AVERAGE ENVIRONMENTAL DISPERSION ON
SATURDAY BECOMES GOOD BY SUNDAY. WET WEATHER MOVES IN AREA WIDE FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SETTING UP ALONG THE
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 47 78 54 79 / 00 00 05 05
PENSACOLA 51 76 56 77 / 00 00 05 05
DESTIN 57 74 61 76 / 00 00 00 05
EVERGREEN 37 77 43 79 / 00 00 00 05
WAYNESBORO 38 79 44 79 / 00 00 00 05
CAMDEN 38 77 43 79 / 00 00 00 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
MS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 070536
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1136 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS FINE.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
CALM OVERNIGHT WITH ROUGHLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY...GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE IN THE FORECAST
WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
50/88
000
FXUS64 KHUN 070530 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1130 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KMSL WHERE FOG FORMATION MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO SUNRISE
AROUND 11-12Z. THIS MAY DROP VIS TO MVFR.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
STILL DROP TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS AS THEY ARE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS FINE.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SL.77
000
FXUS64 KHUN 070506 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1106 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL STILL DROP TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS AS
THEY ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS FINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 538 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 25 PERCENT. HAVE THUS
ALLOWED RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION.../FROM 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ NO CHANGES. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS N AL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMSL. MVFR VIS IS LIKELY BY 10-12Z DUE TO FOG
FORMATION. VIS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 12Z.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SL.77
000
FXUS64 KBMX 070333
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...FOR ZONE FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HOURLY
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS FINE.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH ROUGHLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY...GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE IN FORECAST WITH WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
50/88
000
FXUS64 KBMX 070329
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
929 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE MONDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED OUT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG
AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS HAD BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAIN MOVING IN ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF IDA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS ARE NOW
DELAYING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE UNTIL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN FACT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT MOST OF THE RAIN
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THE DELAY OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR AN INCOMING COLD FRONT TO INTERACT WITH IDA AND BEGIN TO
PUSH IT EAST. IF IDA SLOWS DOWN EVEN MORE...THEN EXPECT FOR
RAINFALL COVERAGE TO BE MUCH LESS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE MOS IS ALSO STRUGGLING WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS
REFLECTED BY HIGH STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH IN
TURN WILL HELP PUSH ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. LONG
RANGE MODELS DO WANT TO KEEP THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MUCH FURTHER
TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUN AND THUS KEEPING MUCH OF THE COLDER
AIR AWAY FROM THE AREA. INCREASED FORECAST TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES AS A RESULT BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT WITH ROUGHLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE IN FORECAST WITH WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
10/88
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