[top]
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241648 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1048 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AT KMSL AND SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD ON AT KHSV
THROUGH 18Z OR 19Z...BUT THEN SEE VFR CONDITIONS. MORE CIGS
(MVFR/IFR) WILL PUSH INTO BOTH TAFS SITES THIS EVENING AFTER 01Z OR
02Z AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/-RASH
IS POSSIBLE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME...SINCE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE
FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
UPDATE...TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES AT 10 AM ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS STILL HANGING ON IN MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN ALABAMA
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA...WHERE A SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS BEING DRAWN UP INTO NW
ALABAMA BEHIND A WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THIS WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW OVER MISSOURI MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SHOULD DECREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE SUNSHINE IS STARTING SO EARLY IN NW
AL...CURRENT 60 TO 65 DEGREE HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE. IN CONTRAST...
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AL SHOULD NOT PUSH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S DUE
TO CLOUD COVER. OVERALL...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO CLOUD COVER
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...20
PREV DISCUSSION...20
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241625 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1025 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.UPDATE...TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES AT 10 AM ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS STILL HANGING ON IN MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA...WHERE A SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS BEING DRAWN UP INTO NW
ALABAMA BEHIND A WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THIS WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE LOW OVER MISSOURI MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SHOULD DECREASE CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I-65 SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS BY 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE SUNSHINE IS STARTING SO EARLY IN NW
AL...CURRENT 60 TO 65 DEGREE HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE. IN CONTRAST...
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AL SHOULD NOT PUSH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S DUE
TO CLOUD COVER. OVERALL...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO CLOUD COVER
&&
.AVIATION... /12Z ISSUANCE/
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFT 15-16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN BY LATE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED
TO SEE ISOLD SHRA ACTIVITY NEAR THE TERMINALS AFT 04Z...BUT
PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/ AN
INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC WX PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SEVERAL FRONTS BRINGING SUCCESSIVELY
COOLER AIRMASSES INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH...THESE FRONTS WILL
PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. INTERESTINGLY...MED RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A POTENT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL START OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AND THE DIURNAL RISE MAY BE SLOW DUE TO A VERY PERSISTENT
STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MULTI-SPECTRAL
SAT IMGRY INDICATES THE DECK IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT A BIT OVER THE
AREA...AND ESPECIALLY TO OUR SW...FROM MEM THROUGH EUPORA...AND
MERIDIAN. AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW OVER
THE SRN MISS/WRN TN VALLEY REGION. WHERE THE CLOUD CANOPY IS
SCT/BKN...BOUNDARY LYR MIXING/DRYING MAY HELP TO ERODE THE STRATUS
DECK A LITTLE FASTER. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE SUN PEAKING THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY THIS AFTN.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN WIDE DISPARITIES IN HIGH TEMPS OVER THE AREA
THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT HAVE NARROWED IN ON A SOLN IN THE LOW 60S
PER THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. WILL GO JUST A BIT ABOVE THIS FOR
NOW...OWING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION TODAY.
THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NWRN AL SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH
AMPLE DYNAMIC FORCING EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. RECENT TRENDS IN THE SRN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY SUGGEST
THE NAM MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE
REGION. THUS...WILL LEAN A BIT TOWARDS THE NAM...AND GO WITH CHANCE
POPS IN OUR FAR NW CORNER...AND SLGT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE MOISTURE
COLUMN IS FAIRLY SHALLOW (ONLY UP TO ABOUT 750MB)...SO ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAY EVEN JUST CONSIST OF DZ.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MARGINALLY COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON ITS HEELS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH VALUES GENERALLY ARND 60 DEGREES.
A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NEWLY ESTABLISHED ERN CONUS TROUGH...AND HELP CARVE OUT A LARGER
TROUGH ON THURS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ON
THURS MORNING...WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN TOW. AT THIS POINT...FCST
HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S...BUT NW WINDS
ARND 10-15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EVEN DRIER THAN THE ONE SLATED FOR
TONIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ON THANKSGIVING
MORNING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MILD CAA WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS
LIKELY FALLING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. BOUNDARY LYR WINDS ARND 5 TO
10 MPH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE EAST WILL BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPS...AND ACTUALLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AS WINDS/MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO GENERATE STEEP
LAPSE RATES.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THANKSGIVING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN VERY NEAR FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH WAA MAY BEGIN BY SAT MORNING ALOFT...DECOUPLING SHOULD LEAD
TO TEMP FALLS AT/NEAR THE SFC. THIS MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE. FOR NOW...AM HEDGING A LITTLE BELOW MOS VALUES
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SRN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEEP S-SWRLY FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE DIGGING
INTO THE WRN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INDICATING A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EWRD FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SUN...AND GIVE RISE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS
IN THE NW GOM BY MONDAY. THE GOM SOLN IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME...AND
IS BACKED UP BY THE ECMWF AND A CLUSTERING OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
AVERAGING OF SOLNS AT THIS POINT BRINGS IT ON A PATH SOMEWHERE BTWN
LITTLE ROCK AND HUNTSVILLE...A BIG SPREAD I KNOW...BUT THIS IS STILL
SEVEN DAYS OUT. RESULTING WX IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN/WIND
MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY. A LITTLE WRAPAROUND FROZEN PRECIP WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...15
PREV DISCUSSION...03
[top]
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241152 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
552 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 405 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS MORNING
AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE HELPS TO
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A CAPPING
INVERSION SINCE SUNDAY. THIS CAP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ERODING THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...AND PUSHES
A FAIRLY DRY DOME OF COLD AIR TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS DRY FRONT IS
VERY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS...EVENTUALLY ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARDS
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN WITH TONIGHTS POPS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THOUGH MOS HAS FALLEN BELOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY... I WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. I STILL THINK THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE AT SEEING A SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE.
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...CLEARING OUT
THE CLOUDS WE HAVE BEEN STUCK WITH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE THANKSGIVING MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST AS SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY GIVING US A SHOT AT ONE MORE
FROST ADVISORY BEFORE WE DISCONTINUE ISSUING THEM UNTIL SPRING.
.LONG TERM...TURKEY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...IT WILL TAKE A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO ROTATE AROUND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO BRING IN THE
MUCH COLDER AIR. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS REMAIN THE COLDEST
MORNINGS OF THE WEEK...AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCE AT SEEING EVERYBODY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH SOME OF
THE SHELTERED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING A 29 OR 30 DEGREE READING.
EITHER WAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN AS LATE AS
MONDAY. PERTAINING TO THE LONG RANGE POPS IN THE FORECAST...I
HESITATE TO JUMP POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY AS THESE
SYSTEMS TEND TO SLOW DOWN...SO CHANCE POPS WILL BEGIN MONDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ...FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...SLIDING JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST ON SUNDAY TO START SOME
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...PUSHING US BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING AS A FAIRLY
LARGE AND VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. THICKNESS VALUES HAVE FALLEN EVEN LOWER SINCE
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN...AS 5250DM VALUES PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
HATTIESBURG BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS FOR ALABAMA...WE ALL
KNOW EVERYTHING HAS TO PERFECTLY PHASE TOGETHER TO GET THE ESS
WORD. SO...THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW WILL BE ON MONDAYS WEATHER...WHICH
HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SET UP SO FAR...LOW LEVEL JET...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...ALL WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG STORMS...BUT I OBVIOUSLY WILL REFRAIN FROM JUMPING TO
ANY CONCLUSIONS AT THIS POINT.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD ALSO MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING US
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
27
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CIGS IN MVFR RANGE...AND A FEW IFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS WELL. SHOULD HAVE CIGS GO
ABOVE 3KFT UNLIKE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO
AL WILL SEE SOME LOW MOISTURE AND CIGS RETURN. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN EXISTS...WILL NOT MENTION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME
AS PROBABILITIES ARE LOW FOR POINT FCST.
08
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 61 43 61 35 55 / 0 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 61 44 64 37 57 / 0 20 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 62 45 63 40 55 / 0 20 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 64 44 63 38 58 / 0 20 10 0 10
CALERA 62 45 63 40 56 / 0 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 62 45 63 42 58 / 0 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 65 47 65 39 61 / 0 10 10 0 10
TROY 64 46 66 39 58 / 0 10 10 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/08
[top]
000
FXUS64 KMOB 241117
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
510 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE TOWARD THE FCST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS THIS EVENING BEFORE
FROPA...BUT INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FOG THREAT LATE. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TWO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH FROPA...BUT MOS POP GUIDANCE WAS SO LOW THAT WE
HAVE NOT INCLUDED A RAIN CHANCE AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE NEAR THE NORMALS OF MID 60S...PLUS/MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 40S OVER INTERIOR ZONES TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM...BY 12Z WED UPPER TROF AXIS TO THE WEST SHIFTS EAST TO
ABOUT CENTRAL LA USHERING A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWFA EARLY WED
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT A BAND OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS IS NOTED
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION MOSTLY DURING
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. UPPER TROF WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
EAST OF THE CWFA BY FRI EVENING ALLOWING MORE COLD AIR TO SPILL DOWN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI AFTERNOON.
THIS PUSH GIVES WAY TO THE COOLEST TEMPS FOR THE WEEK BOTH FRI AND
SAT MORNING...MINS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE LOWER 40S ALONG OR NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROF A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OVER
MUCH OF AL AND MS AND SE CONUS GIVING WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION SAT AND SAT
EVENING...THEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWFA EARLY SUN AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS QUICKLY EXITS TO EAST AND DAMPENS NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
MORE ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH SUN
FOLLOWED BY NEXT CUT OFF LOW WITH GOOD REFLECTION AT THE SFC MOVING
EAST OUT OF TX THEN SHIFTING NORTH TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12
TUE. THIS PATTEN GIVES WAY DEEP MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE WEST EARLY MON MORNING...
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MON EVENING. DUE TO A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST COULD EXPERIENCE STRONG FORCING IN MID TO UPPER
LEVELS RESULTING IN A ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE DAY ON MON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY THE GFS
DEPICTS A 50 TO 60 KT H8 JET SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES...APPROACHING 500 M2/S2
AND ABOVE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS
UPCOMING WX EVENT WILL BE AVAILABLE AFTER EACH MODEL RUN THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. /32
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)...VLIFR CONDITIONS OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 12Z THIS MORNING FOR
BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS. BY AROUND 13Z SFC VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
15Z. BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY WILL RETURN TO
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TO A MODERATE FLOW...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS...BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE MARINE AREA. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
WED GIVING WAY TO DRIER COOLER CONDITIONS THU THROUGH EARLY SAT AND
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THU AND
FRI. STAY TUNED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ON THIS POSSIBLE FIRE THREAT THU
THROUGH FRI. /32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 68 45 69 41 / 10 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 65 48 70 45 / 10 10 10 10
DESTIN 67 53 71 50 / 10 10 10 10
EVERGREEN 63 42 68 38 / 05 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 65 44 66 38 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN 63 43 67 39 / 10 05 10 10
CRESTVIEW 66 42 70 39 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 241115 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
515 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AS
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFT 15-16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A
WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN BY LATE EVENING. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED
TO SEE ISOLD SHRA ACTIVITY NEAR THE TERMINALS AFT 04Z...BUT
PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009/
AN INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC WX PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE TN VALLEY
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SEVERAL FRONTS BRINGING SUCCESSIVELY
COOLER AIRMASSES INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH...THESE FRONTS WILL
PASS THROUGH WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. INTERESTINGLY...MED RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A POTENT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL START OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AND THE DIURNAL RISE MAY BE SLOW DUE TO A VERY PERSISTENT
STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MULTI-SPECTRAL
SAT IMGRY INDICATES THE DECK IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT A BIT OVER THE
AREA...AND ESPECIALLY TO OUR SW...FROM MEM THROUGH EUPORA...AND
MERIDIAN. AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW OVER
THE SRN MISS/WRN TN VALLEY REGION. WHERE THE CLOUD CANOPY IS
SCT/BKN...BOUNDARY LYR MIXING/DRYING MAY HELP TO ERODE THE STRATUS
DECK A LITTLE FASTER. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE SUN PEAKING THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY THIS AFTN.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN WIDE DISPARITIES IN HIGH TEMPS OVER THE AREA
THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT HAVE NARROWED IN ON A SOLN IN THE LOW 60S
PER THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. WILL GO JUST A BIT ABOVE THIS FOR
NOW...OWING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION TODAY.
THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NWRN AL SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH
AMPLE DYNAMIC FORCING EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. RECENT TRENDS IN THE SRN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY SUGGEST
THE NAM MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE
REGION. THUS...WILL LEAN A BIT TOWARDS THE NAM...AND GO WITH CHANCE
POPS IN OUR FAR NW CORNER...AND SLGT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE MOISTURE
COLUMN IS FAIRLY SHALLOW (ONLY UP TO ABOUT 750MB)...SO ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAY EVEN JUST CONSIST OF DZ.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MARGINALLY COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON ITS HEELS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH VALUES GENERALLY ARND 60 DEGREES.
A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NEWLY ESTABLISHED ERN CONUS TROUGH...AND HELP CARVE OUT A LARGER
TROUGH ON THURS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ON
THURS MORNING...WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN TOW. AT THIS POINT...FCST
HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S...BUT NW WINDS
ARND 10-15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EVEN DRIER THAN THE ONE SLATED FOR
TONIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ON THANKSGIVING
MORNING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MILD CAA WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS
LIKELY FALLING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. BOUNDARY LYR WINDS ARND 5 TO
10 MPH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE EAST WILL BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPS...AND ACTUALLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AS WINDS/MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO GENERATE STEEP
LAPSE RATES.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THANKSGIVING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN VERY NEAR FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH WAA MAY BEGIN BY SAT MORNING ALOFT...DECOUPLING SHOULD LEAD
TO TEMP FALLS AT/NEAR THE SFC. THIS MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE. FOR NOW...AM HEDGING A LITTLE BELOW MOS VALUES
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SRN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEEP S-SWRLY FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE DIGGING
INTO THE WRN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INDICATING A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EWRD FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SUN...AND GIVE RISE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS
IN THE NW GOM BY MONDAY. THE GOM SOLN IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME...AND
IS BACKED UP BY THE ECMWF AND A CLUSTERING OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
AVERAGING OF SOLNS AT THIS POINT BRINGS IT ON A PATH SOMEWHERE BTWN
LITTLE ROCK AND HUNTSVILLE...A BIG SPREAD I KNOW...BUT THIS IS STILL
SEVEN DAYS OUT. RESULTING WX IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN/WIND
MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY. A LITTLE WRAPAROUND FROZEN PRECIP WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...15
DISCUSSION...03
000
FXUS64 KBMX 241005
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
405 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS MORNING
AS AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE HELPS TO
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A CAPPING
INVERSION SINCE SUNDAY. THIS CAP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ERODING THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...AND PUSHES
A FAIRLY DRY DOME OF COLD AIR TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS DRY FRONT IS
VERY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS...EVENTUALLY ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARDS
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN WITH TONIGHTS POPS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THOUGH MOS HAS FALLEN BELOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY... I WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. I STILL THINK THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE AT SEEING A SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
STATE.
THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...CLEARING OUT
THE CLOUDS WE HAVE BEEN STUCK WITH FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AREA WIDE THANKSGIVING MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST AS SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY GIVING US A SHOT AT ONE MORE
FROST ADVISORY BEFORE WE DISCONTINUE ISSUING THEM UNTIL SPRING.
.LONG TERM...TURKEY DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THOUGH THE DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...IT WILL TAKE A SECONDARY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO ROTATE AROUND THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO BRING IN THE
MUCH COLDER AIR. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS REMAIN THE COLDEST
MORNINGS OF THE WEEK...AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT
CHANCE AT SEEING EVERYBODY DROP INTO THE LOW 30S...WITH SOME OF
THE SHELTERED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING A 29 OR 30 DEGREE READING.
EITHER WAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL LATE SUNDAY...AND MAYBE EVEN AS LATE AS
MONDAY. PERTAINING TO THE LONG RANGE POPS IN THE FORECAST...I
HESITATE TO JUMP POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON SUNDAY AS THESE
SYSTEMS TEND TO SLOW DOWN...SO CHANCE POPS WILL BEGIN MONDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ...FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...SLIDING JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST ON SUNDAY TO START SOME
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD MODERATE
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...PUSHING US BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING AS A FAIRLY
LARGE AND VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. THICKNESS VALUES HAVE FALLEN EVEN LOWER SINCE
YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN...AS 5250DM VALUES PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS
HATTIESBURG BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS FOR ALABAMA...WE ALL
KNOW EVERYTHING HAS TO PERFECTLY PHASE TOGETHER TO GET THE ESS
WORD. SO...THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW WILL BE ON MONDAYS WEATHER...WHICH
HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SET UP SO FAR...LOW LEVEL JET...PLENTY OF MOISTURE
...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX...ALL WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG STORMS...BUT I OBVIOUSLY WILL REFRAIN FROM JUMPING TO
ANY CONCLUSIONS AT THIS POINT.
DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD ALSO MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING US
BACK TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
27
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WEAK WIND FLOW AND CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
AREA THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO LOWER SOME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 AFTER 8Z AT ALL SITES THROUGH 15Z. MAY SEE
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS REDUCING VIS AT MOST SITES. IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES LIKELY FROM 09Z THRU 14Z DUE TO FOG AND OR LOW
STRATUS. AFTER 14Z CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH VFR CONDS
BY 19 TO 21Z. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN TAFS...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME AS IT WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 5 TO 6Z TIME FRAME AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BEGIN TO SWING THROUGH OUTSIDE OF
THIS PERIOD.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 61 43 61 35 55 / 0 20 10 10 10
ANNISTON 61 44 64 37 57 / 0 20 10 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 62 45 63 40 55 / 0 20 10 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 64 44 63 38 58 / 0 20 10 0 10
CALERA 62 45 63 40 56 / 0 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 62 45 63 42 58 / 0 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 65 47 65 39 61 / 0 10 10 0 10
TROY 64 46 66 39 58 / 0 10 10 0 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/16
000
FXUS64 KHUN 240853
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASINGLY DYNAMIC WX PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE TN VALLEY FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SEVERAL FRONTS BRINGING SUCCESSIVELY COOLER
AIRMASSES INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH...THESE FRONTS WILL PASS THROUGH
WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. INTERESTINGLY...MED RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A POTENT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY)...
TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL START OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AND THE DIURNAL RISE MAY BE SLOW DUE TO A VERY PERSISTENT
STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MULTI-SPECTRAL
SAT IMGRY INDICATES THE DECK IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT A BIT OVER THE
AREA...AND ESPECIALLY TO OUR SW...FROM MEM THROUGH EUPORA...AND
MERIDIAN. AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SW OVER
THE SRN MISS/WRN TN VALLEY REGION. WHERE THE CLOUD CANOPY IS
SCT/BKN...BOUNDARY LYR MIXING/DRYING MAY HELP TO ERODE THE STRATUS
DECK A LITTLE FASTER. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE SUN PEAKING THROUGH THE
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER SW PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA BY THIS AFTN.
MOS GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN WIDE DISPARITIES IN HIGH TEMPS OVER THE AREA
THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT HAVE NARROWED IN ON A SOLN IN THE LOW 60S
PER THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. WILL GO JUST A BIT ABOVE THIS FOR
NOW...OWING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION TODAY.
THE SFC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NWRN AL SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH
AMPLE DYNAMIC FORCING EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...MOISTURE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED. RECENT TRENDS IN THE SRN PLAINS/MISS VALLEY SUGGEST
THE NAM MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON MOISTURE FIELDS IN THE
REGION. THUS...WILL LEAN A BIT TOWARDS THE NAM...AND GO WITH CHANCE
POPS IN OUR FAR NW CORNER...AND SLGT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE MOISTURE
COLUMN IS FAIRLY SHALLOW (ONLY UP TO ABOUT 750MB)...SO ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAY EVEN JUST CONSIST OF DZ.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MARGINALLY COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON ITS HEELS. HIGH TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH VALUES GENERALLY ARND 60 DEGREES.
A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NEWLY ESTABLISHED ERN CONUS TROUGH...AND HELP CARVE OUT A LARGER
TROUGH ON THURS. AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA ON
THURS MORNING...WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN TOW. AT THIS POINT...FCST
HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S...BUT NW WINDS
ARND 10-15 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT COOLER. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EVEN DRIER THAN THE ONE SLATED FOR
TONIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS FOR TRAVELERS ON THANKSGIVING
MORNING.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MILD CAA WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DEW POINT TEMPS
LIKELY FALLING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. BOUNDARY LYR WINDS ARND 5 TO
10 MPH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE EAST WILL BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING TEMPS...AND ACTUALLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN...AS WINDS/MIXING MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO GENERATE STEEP
LAPSE RATES.
TEMPS ON FRIDAY LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THANKSGIVING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN VERY NEAR FREEZING.
ALTHOUGH WAA MAY BEGIN BY SAT MORNING ALOFT...DECOUPLING SHOULD LEAD
TO TEMP FALLS AT/NEAR THE SFC. THIS MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE. FOR NOW...AM HEDGING A LITTLE BELOW MOS VALUES
DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SRN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION...AND DEEP S-SWRLY FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE DIGGING
INTO THE WRN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INDICATING A VERY POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EWRD FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SUN...AND GIVE RISE TO SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS
IN THE NW GOM BY MONDAY. THE GOM SOLN IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME...AND
IS BACKED UP BY THE ECMWF AND A CLUSTERING OF GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THIS SFC LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
AVERAGING OF SOLNS AT THIS POINT BRINGS IT ON A PATH SOMEWHERE BTWN
LITTLE ROCK AND HUNTSVILLE...A BIG SPREAD I KNOW...BUT THIS IS STILL
SEVEN DAYS OUT. RESULTING WX IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN/WIND
MAKER FOR THE TN VALLEY. A LITTLE WRAPAROUND FROZEN PRECIP WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE WITH THE SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 63 46 61 37 54 / 0 20 10 0 10
SHOALS 65 44 61 38 55 / 0 20 10 0 10
VINEMONT 63 45 60 37 53 / 0 20 10 0 10
FAYETTEVILLE 62 45 57 37 52 / 0 20 10 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 61 46 60 37 55 / 0 20 10 0 10
FORT PAYNE 61 45 59 37 56 / 0 20 10 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
KDW
000
FXUS64 KBMX 240540
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...FIR AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS
EVENING. THE DECREASING CLOUD LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THIS
CLEARING LINE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...CLOUDS ARE REDEVELOPING
BEHIND IT. 00Z RAOBS INDICATE A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF GROUND BASED
MOISTURE AND BELIEVE THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IF FACT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALL TUESDAY
MORNING TOO BEFORE SOME SUN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY UP A DEGREE OR TWO.
THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS...GENERALLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES AREA WIDE. LOOKING AT VARIOUS
LOCAL FOG TOOLS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG. LEFT MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW 2 MILES IN MOST
PLACES. LOCATIONS IN NORMALLY COOLER VALLEY...RURAL...AND NEAR WATER
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME. HAVE A NICE
NIGHT.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
75
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WEAK WIND FLOW AND CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
AREA THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS HAVE BEGUN TO LOWER SOME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO
BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 AFTER 8Z AT ALL SITES THROUGH 15Z. MAY SEE
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS REDUCING VIS AT MOST SITES. IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES LIKELY FROM 09Z THRU 14Z DUE TO FOG AND OR LOW
STRATUS. AFTER 14Z CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH VFR CONDS
BY 19 TO 21Z. MAY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN TAFS...BUT DID NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME AS IT WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE 5 TO 6Z TIME FRAME AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BEGIN TO SWING THROUGH OUTSIDE OF
THIS PERIOD.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 240506 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1105 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS/AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE XPCTED TO PERSIST WELL
INTO THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS
THE CNTRL TN VALLEY. REDUCED VIS/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/BETWEEN 10-14Z...MAINLY NEAR THE KMSL TERMINAL
UNDER A WEAK SFC INVERSION. CEILINGS MAY THEN BEGIN TO LIFT SOME
AFTER 18Z AS LOW LEVEL MIXING ALLOWS VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TEMPS ARND THE CWA WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID
50S. THICK CLOUD COVER (AS SHOWN BY 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM
OHX/BMX) AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ONLY A FEW MORE
DEGREES BY MRNG. ALSO ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS...COULD SEE SOME FOG
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...09
DISCUSSION...007
000
FXUS64 KBMX 240352
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
945 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS COVERS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE THIS
EVENING. THE DECREASING CLOUD LINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THIS
CLEARING LINE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...CLOUDS ARE REDEVELOPING
BEHIND IT. 00Z RAOBS INDICATE A RATHER DEEP LAYER OF GROUND BASED
MOISTURE AND BELIEVE THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. IF FACT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND ALL TUESDAY
MORNING TOO BEFORE SOME SUN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THEREFORE...HAVE TWEAKED OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY UP A DEGREE OR TWO.
THESE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS...GENERALLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES AREA WIDE. LOOKING AT VARIOUS
LOCAL FOG TOOLS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG. LEFT MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG BUT
DO NOT THINK THAT VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW 2 MILES IN MOST
PLACES. LOCATIONS IN NORMALLY COOLER VALLEY...RURAL...AND NEAR WATER
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME. HAVE A NICE
NIGHT.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
75
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WEAK WIND FLOW AND CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
AREA THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS HAVE MADE IT TO GENERALLY 1000 TO
1900 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THIS RANGE
OVERNIGHT BUT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AT MOST SITES AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN AND LOW LEVELS SATURATE. QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FOG WILL BE THOUGH. IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LIKELY FROM 09Z THRU 14Z
DUE TO FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS. AFTER 14Z CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
IMPROVE...WITH VFR CONDS BY 19 TO 21Z.
16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../336 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST...AND AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
WEDGE...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
STARTING TO SEE JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG TO REFORM. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST...IT WILL DRAG A WEAKENING FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TOMORROW NIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO...AND WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE NORTH. WILL SEE COOL AIR BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLEARING
SKIES...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH...LACKING IN
MOISTURE...WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TO THE AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IT WILL
CARRY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME PLACES IN THE NORTH STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RELAXING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SATURDAY...AND INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE
ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BRINGING A
SERIES OF IMPULSES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...
LEAVING MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
14
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 240322
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
922 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO FCST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...TEMPS ARND THE CWA WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID
50S. THICK CLOUD COVER (AS SHOWN BY 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM
OHX/BMX) AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP ONLY A FEW MORE
DEGREES BY MRNG. ALSO ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS...COULD SEE SOME FOG
ESPECIALLY IN OUR FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE SEE NO REASON TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS
AVIATION...SFC LOW WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS ACROSS THE SERN US. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(MVFR). THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BY 18Z TUESDAY AFTN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN/OVC
CLOUDS.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
007
000
FXUS64 KBMX 232341
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
540 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST...AND AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
WEDGE...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
STARTING TO SEE JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG TO REFORM. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST...IT WILL DRAG A WEAKENING FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TOMORROW NIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO...AND WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE NORTH. WILL SEE COOL AIR BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLEARING
SKIES...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH...LACKING IN
MOISTURE...WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TO THE AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IT WILL
CARRY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME PLACES IN THE NORTH STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW
30S IN THE NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RELAXING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SATURDAY...AND INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE
ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BRINGING A
SERIES OF IMPULSES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...
LEAVING MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
14
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WEAK WIND FLOW AND CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
AREA THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS HAVE MADE IT TO GENERALLY 1000 TO
1900 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THIS RANGE
OVERNIGHT BUT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AT MOST SITES AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN AND LOW LEVELS SATURATE. QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD THE
FOG WILL BE THOUGH. IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LIKELY FROM 09Z THRU 14Z
DUE TO FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS. AFTER 14Z CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
IMPROVE...WITH VFR CONDS BY 19 TO 21Z.
16
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 232331
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
531 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...SFC LOW WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS ACROSS THE SERN US. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
(MVFR). THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BY 18Z TUESDAY AFTN...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN/OVC
CLOUDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
SYNOPSIS...THE CUTOFF LOW THAT BROUGHT THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HAS SWIFTLY MOVED NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MOVING EASTWARD
BRINGING A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS BEHIND IT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL
BE THE MAJOR PLAYER ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE LOW CLOUD DECK
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT CONTRIBUTING TO A FOG THREAT
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. METMOS
HAS THE CLOUD DECK CLEARING TONIGHT RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 40S.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF ANYTHING CAUSING THE
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE TN VALLEY YET. SO...HAVE
IGNORED THE METMOS AND KEPT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
BY TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK THROUGHOUT THE DAY
PRIOR TO THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CLEARING CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOW 60S. THERE IS A WIDE ARRAY OF VARIANCE WITH THE TEMP FORECAST
BTWN THE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. RETAINED THE LOW END
POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTURE REMAINING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FROPA...TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S WITH THE SUNNY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM INVOLVES A LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING IN PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING
MAINLY CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE AT LEAST FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO
STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DUE TO THE STRONG CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS (THE LITTLE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE LEFT)
WILL DROP PRECIPITOUSLY INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING THAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOST OF THE EXTENDED IS MAINLY
A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HOWEVER...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF
FORECAST FOR THE TROUGH EXPECTED LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
FRIDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WITH THE COLD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL DROP
VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IF NOT BELOW IN SOME PLACES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
SUNDAY SHOULD ACTUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO SWWD TO WEST TX WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEFT POPS
MAINLY FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
007
000
FXUS64 KBMX 232136
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
336 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND DOWN THE EAST COAST...AND AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN MOIST...AND WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE
WEDGE...CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW.
STARTING TO SEE JUST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SUNSET...EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG TO REFORM. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIXTURE OF LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE
MIDWEST...IT WILL DRAG A WEAKENING FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
TOMORROW NIGHT. A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL MEAN VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO...AND WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE NORTH. WILL SEE COOL AIR BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH CLEARING
SKIES...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH...LACKING IN
MOISTURE...WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TO THE AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE MOST OF WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IT WILL CARRY
WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME PLACES IN THE NORTH STRUGGLING TO REACH 50
DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S IN
THE NORTH TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RELAXING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SATURDAY...AND INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BRINGING A
SERIES OF IMPULSES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...
LEAVING MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
14
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WEAK WIND FLOW AND CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
AREA THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH BASES REACHING
1500-2500 FEET BY 23Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THIS RANGE
OVERNIGHT BUT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AT MOST SITES AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN AND LOW LEVELS SATURATE. IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LIKELY FROM 08Z
THRU 14Z DUE TO FOG. AFTER 14Z CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH
VFR CONDS BY END OF PERIOD.
58/ROSE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 44 61 43 61 35 / 0 0 20 10 10
ANNISTON 45 61 44 64 37 / 0 0 20 10 10
BIRMINGHAM 50 62 45 63 40 / 0 0 20 10 10
TUSCALOOSA 47 64 44 63 38 / 0 0 20 10 0
CALERA 48 62 45 63 40 / 0 0 10 10 10
AUBURN 48 62 45 63 42 / 0 0 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 47 65 47 65 39 / 0 0 10 10 0
TROY 47 64 46 66 39 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 232051
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
251 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE CUTOFF LOW THAT BROUGHT THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HAS SWIFTLY MOVED NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS MOVING EASTWARD
BRINGING A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS BEHIND IT. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH
JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IS MOVING EASTWARD AND WILL
BE THE MAJOR PLAYER ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...THE LOW CLOUD DECK
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT CONTRIBUTING TO A FOG THREAT
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. METMOS
HAS THE CLOUD DECK CLEARING TONIGHT RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 40S.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF ANYTHING CAUSING THE
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE TN VALLEY YET. SO...HAVE
IGNORED THE METMOS AND KEPT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
BY TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BREAK THROUGHOUT THE DAY
PRIOR TO THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CLEARING CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOW 60S. THERE IS A WIDE ARRAY OF VARIANCE WITH THE TEMP FORECAST
BTWN THE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS...BUT CHOSE TO LEAVE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. RETAINED THE LOW END
POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTURE REMAINING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FROPA...TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S WITH THE SUNNY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM INVOLVES A LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING IN PRETTY
MUCH THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING
MAINLY CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE AT LEAST FOR THANKSGIVING MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR BY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO
STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DUE TO THE STRONG CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS (THE LITTLE MOISTURE THAT WILL BE LEFT)
WILL DROP PRECIPITOUSLY INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING THAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MOST OF THE EXTENDED IS MAINLY
A TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HOWEVER...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF
FORECAST FOR THE TROUGH EXPECTED LATE IN THE EXTENDED.
FRIDAY TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
WITH THE COLD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL DROP
VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING IF NOT BELOW IN SOME PLACES ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
SUNDAY SHOULD ACTUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO SWWD TO WEST TX WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OVER THE
REGION WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEFT POPS
MAINLY FOR MONDAY...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 47 60 44 61 38 / 10 10 20 10 10
SHOALS 49 61 44 61 39 / 10 10 20 10 10
VINEMONT 49 60 44 60 38 / 10 10 20 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 49 59 43 57 38 / 10 10 20 10 10
ALBERTVILLE 48 59 43 60 38 / 10 10 20 10 10
FORT PAYNE 45 60 43 59 37 / 10 10 20 10 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SL.77
000
FXUS64 KMOB 232030
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
229 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK
ALONG THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT ALREADY AT RELEASE OF
THE AFD. THINK THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MORE LIKELY IN AREAS THAT CAN
MANAGE TO GET SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTERNOON OVER
THE NORTHEAST AS THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THOSE AREAS. NEXT
SYSTEM SHOULD BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS WITH IT. BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LOSING ITS UPPER SUPPORT AS IT APPROACHES...THEREFORE AM NOT
EXPECTING RAIN WITH IT BUT COULD HAVE A FEW SPRINKLES LATE AS THE
FRONTAL BAND CROSSES. THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE SUNNY BUT ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. /11
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)CHANGES MADE TO LONG TERM WERE
TO REMOVE POPS FROM THURSDAY AND INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE PREVIOUS
DAY 8 WHICH IS NOW DAY 7(MONDAY). THE MONDAY SYSTEM IS LOOKING LIKE
IT WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. /11
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUING TO ERODE FROM
THE SOUTH. AS THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...
CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT THE FORECAST TERMINALS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING. DIFFICULT FORECAST OVERNIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE STRATUS DECK. THERE IS STILL LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT TO RESULT IN A RETURN TO MVFR TO POTENTIALLY
IFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 06Z. VFR LEVELS EXPECTED BY MID TUESDAY
MORNING. 34/JFB
&&
.MARINE...A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENING AND
SEAS BUILDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH
SEAS SUBSIDING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE MARINE AREA. 34/JFB
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RAINFREE BUT SOME
PATCHY FOG AROUND TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE LIGHT
DRIZZLE FROM TIME TO TIME. LOWEST HUMIDITY BETWEEN 45 AND 50 PERCENT
THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 48 69 48 67 / 05 10 05 10
PENSACOLA 51 67 51 70 / 05 10 10 10
DESTIN 55 65 54 71 / 05 10 10 10
EVERGREEN 43 68 43 68 / 05 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 42 69 45 64 / 05 05 05 10
CAMDEN 44 67 43 65 / 10 10 05 10
CRESTVIEW 46 69 47 71 / 05 10 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 231742 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/DISCUSSION FROM 404 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...FOG. THESE WILL BE THE KEY WORDS TODAY AROUND
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FROM YESTERDAY
HAVE MOVED UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...AND HAVE LEFT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND ALL DAY...WHICH WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL
TODAY AS THERE WON`T BE MUCH SUN TO HEAT THINGS UP.
THE THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOW I AM MORE INCLINED TO LEAVE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A QUASI-WEDGE SET UP BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS.
NOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHTS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR IT
TO PETER OUT BEFORE REACHING US. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
PRETTY DRY...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...AND THERE JUST IS NO FORCING TO
SPEAK OF AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SO...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS VERY WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TUESDAYS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL AGAIN BE THE CULPRIT IN SWINGING AT LEAST ONE...MAYBE
TWO MORE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST ONE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT BECAUSE OF SOME CLOUDS THAT WILL BE WITH
IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ONE THAT WILL COUNT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS IS THE ONE THAT SHOULD GIVE US CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A MUCH BETTER PUSH OF COLD CANADIAN AIR...LEAVING US WITH
POSSIBLY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. KEEP IN MIND
THAT NWS BIRMINGHAM DOES NOT ISSUE FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS AFTER
THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER COULD BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY MONDAY. LETS PUT IT THIS WAY...WHETHER THE EURO OR THE
GFS VERIFIES...WE COULD BE VERY BUSY WEATHER WISE BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
27
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
WEAK WIND FLOW AND CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
AREA THRU THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH BASES REACHING
1500-2500 FEET BY 23Z. CIGS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THIS RANGE
OVERNIGHT BUT FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AT MOST SITES AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN AND LOW LEVELS SATURATE. IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES LIKELY FROM 08Z
THRU 14Z DUE TO FOG. AFTER 14Z CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD IMPROVE...WITH
VFR CONDS BY END OF PERIOD.
58/ROSE
08
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 231725 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1125 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR STRATUS CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF THE SE. HOWEVER...
SOME BREAKS WITHIN THIS CLOUD DECK WERE EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
ANIMATION OVER FAR NORTHERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT PARTS OF NE ALABAMA MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW BREAKS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MAXIMA OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW WILL
HELP CONTINUE THE OVERCAST TRENDS. CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE MVFR THIS PERIOD...WITH A FEW REDUCTIONS TO THE IFR CATEGORY.
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SE UNITED STATES...FROM
EAST TEXAS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE EAST COAST. UPGLIDE
NOTED IN THE 290-300K REGION...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS CAUSED PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE VALLEY. THIS TREND HAS
SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE MORNING. 10 AM
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH 5-10 MPH SE WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE APPARENT ACROSS OF NW ALABAMA WHERE
THE UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ELSEWHERE. STATUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES. ALL ELSE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS OK.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
RSB
000
FXUS64 KMOB 231623 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1022 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...TRICKY TEMPERATURE AND SKY FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT OVERCAST LOW STRATUS DECK. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM LIX AND BMX INDICATED MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB
UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OVER THE AREA TODAY...THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO HELP TO CLEAR THIS STRATUS DECK OUT. SO
WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON THE NOVEMBER SUN TO HELP ERODE THE CLOUD
COVER. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOWS THE STRATUS
BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP IN THE SOUTH AND WEST
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ONLY NUDGED HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...IF THE BREAKS
DO NOT MATERIALIZE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN HIGHS WILL END UP
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA LOOK TO STAY IN THE CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AS THE LOW
NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE WILL SPEND MUCH OF THE DAY TRYING TO BREAK UP THE
4000-5000 FT THICK STRATUS DECK. THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED DOWN TEMPS
AT LEAST A CATEGORY (UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60).
UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECASTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. 34/JFB
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 445 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WILL DRIFT EAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE
NOTED OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
THIS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCE FOR
TODAY... BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MORNING COMMUTERS HAVE TO
SWIPE WINDSHIELD WIPERS OCCASIONALLY IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS TODAY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM...BY 12Z TUE SFC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEGINS TO
SHIFT N`WARD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT LONG WAVE TROF/CLOSED LOW MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUE DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
TO THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWFA BY 18Z WED WITH CHANCE POPS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
WELL OFFSHORE AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. AS UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES MORE NORTHWARD ON WED MODEL GUIDANCE PREFERABLY THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST DIGGING
MOSTLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER/COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BOTH FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND AND THE
LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRI. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. /32
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)...LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD DECK PRODUCING CIGS AROUND 400 FEET. THE
LOW CIG WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY
WILL RETURN TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...WEAKENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE TODAY
AND TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE
WINDS...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS...DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART
OF THE WEEK. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE MUCH LOWER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME HUMIDITIES LEVELS LOOK
TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS LATER IN THE WEEK BUT WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. /32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 68 48 72 48 / 10 05 10 05
PENSACOLA 67 51 69 51 / 10 05 10 10
DESTIN 67 54 67 54 / 10 05 10 10
EVERGREEN 64 44 70 42 / 10 05 10 10
WAYNESBORO 65 42 72 43 / 05 05 05 05
CAMDEN 62 44 71 45 / 10 10 10 05
CRESTVIEW 69 46 71 44 / 10 05 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 231612 AAB
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1012 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
CONTINUED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF THE SE UNITED STATES...FROM
EAST TEXAS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE EAST COAST. UPGLIDE
NOTED IN THE 290-300K REGION...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS CAUSED PATCHY DRIZZLE AROUND THE VALLEY. THIS TREND HAS
SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE MORNING. 10 AM
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH 5-10 MPH SE WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE APPARENT ACROSS OF NW ALABAMA WHERE
THE UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED...ALONG WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ELSEWHERE. STATUS CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH
TONIGHT. THUS HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES. ALL ELSE FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IS OK.
&&
.AVIATION... /12Z ISSUANCE/
EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR STRATUS CLOUD DECK WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. CIG HEIGHTS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN FALLING THIS
MORNING...AND UPSTREAM OBS SHOW IFR CONDITIONS. SO...EXPECTING
IFR CIGS AT KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS BY ABOUT 15-16Z. WEAK BOUNDARY LYR
MIXING MAY HELP CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR AGAIN BY ABOUT 18-20Z. PATCHY
LGT FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT
OF VIS RESTRICTIONS BELOW 6SM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS IN WEDGE TYPE
PATTERN...AND THIS HAS MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
DECK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER
PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE S/W TROUGHS MOVING BRISKLY EWD THROUGH A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST TODAY WITH VERY LITTLE DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE. WILL MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID MORNING...THOUGH
EXPECT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE. CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF CLEARING PERIOD IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTN.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
FOG SHOULD NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. SOME TIMING/SENSIBLE WX DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS PERSIST WITH THE NAM BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP. THE
SREFS TREND TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD THE LOWER RANGE POPS FOR THE MOMENT.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND A RATHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD ALSO
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THAT FOR NOW. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
SEASONABLY COOL BUT DRY WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE START TO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RSB
AVIATION...KDW
DISCUSSION...15/CBD
000
FXUS64 KBMX 231157 AAA
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
555 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/DISCUSSION FROM 404 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...FOG. THESE WILL BE THE KEY WORDS TODAY AROUND
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FROM YESTERDAY
HAVE MOVED UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...AND HAVE LEFT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND ALL DAY...WHICH WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL
TODAY AS THERE WON`T BE MUCH SUN TO HEAT THINGS UP.
THE THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOW I AM MORE INCLINED TO LEAVE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A QUASI-WEDGE SET UP BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS.
NOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHTS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR IT
TO PETER OUT BEFORE REACHING US. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
PRETTY DRY...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...AND THERE JUST IS NO FORCING TO
SPEAK OF AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SO...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS VERY WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TUESDAYS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL AGAIN BE THE CULPRIT IN SWINGING AT LEAST ONE...MAYBE
TWO MORE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST ONE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT BECAUSE OF SOME CLOUDS THAT WILL BE WITH
IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ONE THAT WILL COUNT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS IS THE ONE THAT SHOULD GIVE US CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A MUCH BETTER PUSH OF COLD CANADIAN AIR...LEAVING US WITH
POSSIBLY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. KEEP IN MIND
THAT NWS BIRMINGHAM DOES NOT ISSUE FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS AFTER
THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER COULD BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY MONDAY. LETS PUT IT THIS WAY...WHETHER THE EURO OR THE
GFS VERIFIES...WE COULD BE VERY BUSY WEATHER WISE BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
27
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN A FACTOR WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE THIS AM ACROSS C AL AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST STILL PLAGUES US ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE
SOME VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. BUT IT IS SO LIGHT...
THINKING THE BR COVERS BETTER. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT A LITTLE
HIGHER TO AROUND MVFR BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST. SOME FOG TO REMAIN FOR A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
FOG EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLIER FOR TONIGHT AND GO DOWN LOWER AND
ACROSS MORE SITES THAN THIS AM.
08
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 54 43 63 43 61 / 0 0 0 20 10
ANNISTON 52 44 63 42 64 / 0 0 0 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 57 47 64 45 63 / 0 0 0 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 56 45 66 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
CALERA 56 46 64 45 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
AUBURN 56 47 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 58 44 67 47 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
TROY 58 44 66 46 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/08
000
FXUS64 KHUN 231135 AAA
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
534 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR STRATUS CLOUD DECK WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. CIG HEIGHTS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN FALLING THIS
MORNING...AND UPSTREAM OBS SHOW IFR CONDITIONS. SO...EXPECTING
IFR CIGS AT KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS BY ABOUT 15-16Z. WEAK BOUNDARY LYR
MIXING MAY HELP CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR AGAIN BY ABOUT 18-20Z. PATCHY
LGT FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT
OF VIS RESTRICTIONS BELOW 6SM.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS IN WEDGE TYPE
PATTERN...AND THIS HAS MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
DECK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER
PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE S/W TROUGHS MOVING BRISKLY EWD THROUGH A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST TODAY WITH VERY LITTLE DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE. WILL MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID MORNING...THOUGH
EXPECT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE. CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF CLEARING PERIOD IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTN.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
FOG SHOULD NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. SOME TIMING/SENSIBLE WX DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS PERSIST WITH THE NAM BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP. THE
SREFS TREND TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD THE LOWER RANGE POPS FOR THE MOMENT.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND A RATHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD ALSO
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THAT FOR NOW. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
SEASONABLY COOL BUT DRY WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE START TO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KDW
DISCUSSION...15/CBD
000
FXUS64 KMOB 231048
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WILL DRIFT EAST AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE
NOTED OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
THIS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT MENTION ANY MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCE FOR
TODAY... BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MORNING COMMUTERS HAVE TO
SWIPE WINDSHIELD WIPERS OCCASIONALLY IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...GIVING
WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS TODAY AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 12/DS
&&
.LONG TERM...BY 12Z TUE SFC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BEGINS TO
SHIFT N`WARD IN RESPONSE TO NEXT LONG WAVE TROF/CLOSED LOW MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON TUE DUE TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER SYSTEM
TO THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE CWFA BY 18Z WED WITH CHANCE POPS MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
WELL OFFSHORE AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING. AS UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES MORE NORTHWARD ON WED MODEL GUIDANCE PREFERABLY THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ON THE HEALS OF THE FIRST DIGGING
MOSTLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER/COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BOTH FRI AND SAT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND AND THE
LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST ON FRI. SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OVER
THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS. /32
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z ISSUANCE)...LIFR CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD DECK PRODUCING CIGS AROUND 400 FEET. THE
LOW CIG WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...GRADUALLY SCATTERING OUT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY
WILL RETURN TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 12/DS
&&
.MARINE...WEAKENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE TODAY
AND TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE OFFSHORE
WINDS...ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS...DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE PART
OF THE WEEK. 12/DS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE MUCH LOWER
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION BY MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME HUMIDITIES LEVELS LOOK
TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS LATER IN THE WEEK BUT WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. /32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 68 48 72 48 / 10 05 10 05
PENSACOLA 67 51 69 51 / 10 05 10 10
DESTIN 67 54 67 54 / 10 05 10 10
EVERGREEN 64 44 70 42 / 10 05 10 10
WAYNESBORO 65 42 72 43 / 05 05 05 05
CAMDEN 62 44 71 45 / 10 10 10 05
CRESTVIEW 69 46 71 44 / 10 05 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 231004
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
404 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CLOUDS...DRIZZLE...FOG. THESE WILL BE THE KEY WORDS TODAY AROUND
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW FROM YESTERDAY
HAVE MOVED UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...AND HAVE LEFT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
STICK AROUND ALL DAY...WHICH WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY COOL
TODAY AS THERE WON`T BE MUCH SUN TO HEAT THINGS UP.
THE THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THAT WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOW I AM MORE INCLINED TO LEAVE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A QUASI-WEDGE SET UP BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW...AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY BECAUSE OF THIS.
NOW FOR TUESDAY NIGHTS FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR IT
TO PETER OUT BEFORE REACHING US. EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
PRETTY DRY...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...AND THERE JUST IS NO FORCING TO
SPEAK OF AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED WELL TO OUR
NORTH. SO...WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS VERY WEAK IMPULSE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TUESDAYS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL AGAIN BE THE CULPRIT IN SWINGING AT LEAST ONE...MAYBE
TWO MORE IMPULSES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST ONE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT BECAUSE OF SOME CLOUDS THAT WILL BE WITH
IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ONE THAT WILL COUNT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS IS THE ONE THAT SHOULD GIVE US CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A MUCH BETTER PUSH OF COLD CANADIAN AIR...LEAVING US WITH
POSSIBLY THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. KEEP IN MIND
THAT NWS BIRMINGHAM DOES NOT ISSUE FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS AFTER
THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER COULD BE ON OUR
DOORSTEP BY MONDAY. LETS PUT IT THIS WAY...WHETHER THE EURO OR THE
GFS VERIFIES...WE COULD BE VERY BUSY WEATHER WISE BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
27
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY 400 TO 600 AT TOI AND MGM. THIS WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE DZ AS
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BETWEEN 06Z SOUTH TO 10Z NORTH AND LASTING UNTIL 20Z. MAY EVEN SEE
PERIODS BETWEEN 09 AND 13Z WHERE VIS DROPS BELOW 1 SM AT TOI AND
MGM. SOME CLEARING TO AT LEAST MVFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 19 TO
21Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET THROUGH 06Z.
16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 54 43 63 43 61 / 0 0 0 20 10
ANNISTON 52 44 63 42 64 / 0 0 0 20 10
BIRMINGHAM 57 47 64 45 63 / 0 0 0 20 10
TUSCALOOSA 56 45 66 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
CALERA 56 46 64 45 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
AUBURN 56 47 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
MONTGOMERY 58 44 67 47 68 / 0 0 0 10 10
TROY 58 44 66 46 66 / 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
27/16
000
FXUS64 KHUN 230812
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS IN WEDGE TYPE
PATTERN...AND THIS HAS MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
DECK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX UPPER
PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE S/W TROUGHS MOVING BRISKLY EWD THROUGH A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER 48.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST TODAY WITH VERY LITTLE DIURNAL TEMP
RANGE. WILL MENTION PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG THROUGH MID MORNING...THOUGH
EXPECT MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN ISSUE. CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY INTO
TUESDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF CLEARING PERIOD IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTN.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT THOUGH
FOG SHOULD NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL SWING ACROSS THE
REGION TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. SOME TIMING/SENSIBLE WX DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS PERSIST WITH THE NAM BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP. THE
SREFS TREND TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD THE LOWER RANGE POPS FOR THE MOMENT.
LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON THANKSGIVING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AND A RATHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD ALSO
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THAT FOR NOW. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
SEASONABLY COOL BUT DRY WITH A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE START TO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 55 46 60 44 61 / 10 10 10 20 10
SHOALS 56 47 61 44 61 / 10 10 10 20 10
VINEMONT 54 47 60 44 60 / 10 10 10 20 10
FAYETTEVILLE 52 48 59 43 57 / 10 10 10 20 10
ALBERTVILLE 52 46 59 43 60 / 10 10 10 20 10
FORT PAYNE 54 44 60 43 59 / 10 10 10 20 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
15/CBD
000
FXUS64 KBMX 230545
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1145 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE A
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE UPPER
LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WAS MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WAS RELOADING INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROF OUT WEST.
LOW CLOUD COVER AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID REMOVE MENTION OF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN AS
RADAR TRENDS HAVE DECREASED ON THE RETURNS THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BACK UP THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS A BIT. CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNIFORM ACROSS
THE AREA AND NO GREAT FALLS IN TEMPERATURE ARE ANTICIPATED.
INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR SO AND HAVE A SLIGHT EAST TO
WEST DIFFERENCE IN LOWS DUE TO DRIER AIR EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND DRIZZLE AS
THIS COULD AIDE IN LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY...BUT FOR
NOW...THINK MOST VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2 MILES DUE TO
OVERALL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COOLING.
UPDATES OUT.
75
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY 400 TO 600 AT TOI AND MGM. THIS WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THE DZ AS
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
BETWEEN 06Z SOUTH TO 10Z NORTH AND LASTING UNTIL 20Z. MAY EVEN SEE
PERIODS BETWEEN 9 AND 13Z WHERE VIS DROPS BELOW 1 SM AT TOI AND
MGM. SOME CLEARING TO AT LEAST MVFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 19 TO
21Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FEET THROUGH 6Z.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 230520
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1120 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES THRU THE FCST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND REMOVED SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF NOW EAST OF OUR CWA WHILE LOCAL RADARS
WERE ONLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER OUR EXTREME NERN
ZONES. NEW NAM DATA SHOWS CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CWA. WENT AHEAD
AND REMOVED SHOWER WORDING AND KEPT PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S BY MONDAY MRNG.
UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT AND ZONES WILL SOON TO FOLLOW.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
007
000
FXUS64 KBMX 230350
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
950 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE A
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE UPPER
LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WAS MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WAS RELOADING INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROF OUT WEST.
LOW CLOUD COVER AND DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID REMOVE MENTION OF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN AS
RADAR TRENDS HAVE DECREASED ON THE RETURNS THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BACK UP THE VERY LIGHT PRECIP FALLING.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS A BIT. CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNIFORM ACROSS
THE AREA AND NO GREAT FALLS IN TEMPERATURE ARE ANTICIPATED.
INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR SO AND HAVE A SLIGHT EAST TO
WEST DIFFERENCE IN LOWS DUE TO DRIER AIR EAST. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE CLOUD HEIGHTS AND DRIZZLE AS
THIS COULD AIDE IN LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY...BUT FOR
NOW...THINK MOST VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2 MILES DUE TO
OVERALL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COOLING.
UPDATES OUT.
75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS BASICALLY KILLED OFF
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA IF THEY DO AT ALL BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WHEN THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT IS WHAT IS THROWING A WRENCH ON THIS
FORECAST. GENERALLY...WITH SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE...MODELS HAVE A
BIAS TO CLEAR SKIES WAY TOO FAST. I THINK THIS IS THE CASE FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT...WE MAY NOT CLEAR AT ALL UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS VERY EVIDENT WHEN COMPARING
THE MET AND THE MAV AND SEEING SUCH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES. FOR EXAMPLE...BIRMINGHAM SPREAD FOR THE NEXT 3
PERIODS ARE 7...8 AND 10 DEGREES. THIS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT. IN
CASES LIKE THIS...IT ALMOST WORKS BEST TO JUST TAKE A BLEND OF
BOTH MODELS WHICH IS WHAT I DID.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT ON THE TRAIL WILL BE A SECOND FRONT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT IS SET TO MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...LOW CLOUDS COULD THROW
IN YET ANOTHER WRINKLE AND KEEP THEM SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS 700 TO 1500 WILL CONTINUE THRU 03Z. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-65 WHERE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST. IN FACT WILL JUST MENTION -DZ AT MOST SITES
AS THE RAIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN ACCUMULATION.
AFTER 03Z...CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FEET WITH VSBYS 3-5
MILES IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 19Z. MAY EVEN SEE PERIODS BETWEEN 9 AND
13Z WHERE VIS DROPS BELOW 1 SM AT TOI AND MGM. SOME CLEARING TO AT
LEAST MVFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 19 TO 21Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 230333
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND REMOVED SHOWERS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF NOW EAST OF OUR CWA WHILE LOCAL RADARS
WERE ONLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER OUR EXTREME NERN
ZONES. NEW NAM DATA SHOWS CLOUDS WILL LOWER TONIGHT WHICH WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CWA. WENT AHEAD
AND REMOVED SHOWER WORDING AND KEPT PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE. ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S BY MONDAY MRNG.
UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT AND ZONES WILL SOON TO FOLLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS
AVIATION...UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AL/GA BORDER ATTM WITH A WEAK
UPPER HIGH ALONG THE MS RIVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING THAT THE
PCPN IS OVER FOR BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES ARND
09Z MONDAY MRNG. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL ARND
15Z. OTHERWISE MODEL TIME SECTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS (DUE TO CLOUDS) EXPECTED FROM
15Z AND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FCST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SYNOPSIS...A CUTOFF LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE FL PANHANDLE HAS
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
APPROACHES THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALSO...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES ITS TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WA/OR/ID. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BY TONIGHT THE
MAJORITY (IF NOT ALL) THE RAIN SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN
END...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
THUS...A COOL DRIZZLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE TN VALLEY AS THE
CUTOFF LOW IS SWIFTLY LIFTED NORTHEAST AND LOWS STAY NEAR STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FURTHERMORE...A LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED
WHICH WILL LEAD TO FOG PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS THE CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST...MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER LEADING TO A COOL DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS. THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAY PUSH THE CLOUD DECK EASTWARD SOMEWHAT BEFORE
LIFTING...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH HEADWAY IN CLEARING. THUS...AS
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT...HAVE KEPT LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NE AL DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH THE WEAK WAVES CROSSING THE REGION. HAVE KEPT
THE AREAS OF FOG FOR MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
PRESENT.
MEANWHILE BY TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING
A COOL DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMAINING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. HAVE PLACED SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY OVER NW AL TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONE THING THAT IS STILL PERPLEXING IS THE TEMP FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGHS. GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DIVERGENT FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WITH MAVMOS IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE METMOS IN THE LOW 50S.
AM THINKING THIS HAS TO DO WITH A DIFFERING SOLUTION TO THE TEMP OF
THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. HAVE
CHOSEN TO BLEND THE MET/MAV.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS OPPOSED TO
COLD. SKY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVING WAY TO LOW 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE REGION...EXPECTING NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THESE TEMPS MAY BE LOWER IF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INCREASES VELOCITY.
LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANOTHER WAVE
OF COLD AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
EARLY ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY COOL
PASSAGE. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL USHER TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S. IN
FACT...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS CLOUDS CLEAR LATE THAT DAY
INTO THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP RAPIDLY.
CLOSE TO FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE COLD
NW FLOW ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...IF
THE FIRST FREEZE HAS NOT ALREADY OCCURRED ON FRIDAY MORNING...
EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. TEMPS WILL THEN RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
007
000
FXUS64 KHUN 222353
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
553 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AL/GA BORDER ATTM WITH A WEAK
UPPER HIGH ALONG THE MS RIVER. LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING THAT THE
PCPN IS OVER FOR BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES ARND
09Z MONDAY MRNG. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE UNTIL ARND
15Z. OTHERWISE MODEL TIME SECTIONS KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL DAY
ON MONDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS (DUE TO CLOUDS) EXPECTED FROM
15Z AND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FCST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SYNOPSIS...A CUTOFF LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE FL PANHANDLE HAS
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
APPROACHES THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALSO...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES ITS TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WA/OR/ID. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BY TONIGHT THE
MAJORITY (IF NOT ALL) THE RAIN SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN
END...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
THUS...A COOL DRIZZLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE TN VALLEY AS THE
CUTOFF LOW IS SWIFTLY LIFTED NORTHEAST AND LOWS STAY NEAR STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FURTHERMORE...A LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED
WHICH WILL LEAD TO FOG PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS THE CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST...MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER LEADING TO A COOL DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS. THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAY PUSH THE CLOUD DECK EASTWARD SOMEWHAT BEFORE
LIFTING...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH HEADWAY IN CLEARING. THUS...AS
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT...HAVE KEPT LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NE AL DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH THE WEAK WAVES CROSSING THE REGION. HAVE KEPT
THE AREAS OF FOG FOR MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
PRESENT.
MEANWHILE BY TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING
A COOL DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMAINING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. HAVE PLACED SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY OVER NW AL TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONE THING THAT IS STILL PERPLEXING IS THE TEMP FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGHS. GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DIVERGENT FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WITH MAVMOS IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE METMOS IN THE LOW 50S.
AM THINKING THIS HAS TO DO WITH A DIFFERING SOLUTION TO THE TEMP OF
THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. HAVE
CHOSEN TO BLEND THE MET/MAV.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS OPPOSED TO
COLD. SKY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVING WAY TO LOW 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE REGION...EXPECTING NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THESE TEMPS MAY BE LOWER IF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INCREASES VELOCITY.
LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANOTHER WAVE
OF COLD AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
EARLY ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY COOL
PASSAGE. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL USHER TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S. IN
FACT...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS CLOUDS CLEAR LATE THAT DAY
INTO THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP RAPIDLY.
CLOSE TO FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE COLD
NW FLOW ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...IF
THE FIRST FREEZE HAS NOT ALREADY OCCURRED ON FRIDAY MORNING...
EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. TEMPS WILL THEN RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
007
000
FXUS64 KBMX 222352
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
550 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES JUST A BIT FOR EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...A FEW AREAS OF HEAVIER
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH GENERALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 THIS EVENING. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT
BUT A 20 TO 30 POP FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEMS REASONABLE. THE TREND
OF NO MEASURABLE PRECIP AFTER 10 PM LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
75
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 259 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS BASICALLY KILLED OFF
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA IF THEY DO AT ALL BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WHEN THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT IS WHAT IS THROWING A WRENCH ON THIS
FORECAST. GENERALLY...WITH SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE...MODELS HAVE A
BIAS TO CLEAR SKIES WAY TOO FAST. I THINK THIS IS THE CASE FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT...WE MAY NOT CLEAR AT ALL UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS VERY EVIDENT WHEN COMPARING
THE MET AND THE MAV AND SEEING SUCH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES. FOR EXAMPLE...BIRMINGHAM SPREAD FOR THE NEXT 3
PERIODS ARE 7...8 AND 10 DEGREES. THIS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT. IN
CASES LIKE THIS...IT ALMOST WORKS BEST TO JUST TAKE A BLEND OF
BOTH MODELS WHICH IS WHAT I DID.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT ON THE TRAIL WILL BE A SECOND FRONT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT IS SET TO MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...LOW CLOUDS COULD THROW
IN YET ANOTHER WRINKLE AND KEEP THEM SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS 700 TO 1500 WILL CONTINUE THRU 03Z. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-65 WHERE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST. IN FACT WILL JUST MENTION -DZ AT MOST SITES
AS THE RAIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN ACCUMULATION.
AFTER 03Z...CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FEET WITH VSBYS 3-5
MILES IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 19Z. MAY EVEN SEE PERIODS BETWEEN 9 AND
13Z WHERE VIS DROPS BELOW 1 SM AT TOI AND MGM. SOME CLEARING TO AT
LEAST MVFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 19 TO 21Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 222340
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
540 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS BASICALLY KILLED OFF
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA IF THEY DO AT ALL BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WHEN THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT IS WHAT IS THROWING A WRENCH ON THIS
FORECAST. GENERALLY...WITH SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE...MODELS HAVE A
BIAS TO CLEAR SKIES WAY TOO FAST. I THINK THIS IS THE CASE FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT...WE MAY NOT CLEAR AT ALL UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS VERY EVIDENT WHEN COMPARING
THE MET AND THE MAV AND SEEING SUCH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES. FOR EXAMPLE...BIRMINGHAM SPREAD FOR THE NEXT 3
PERIODS ARE 7...8 AND 10 DEGREES. THIS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT. IN
CASES LIKE THIS...IT ALMOST WORKS BEST TO JUST TAKE A BLEND OF
BOTH MODELS WHICH IS WHAT I DID.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT ON THE TRAIL WILL BE A SECOND FRONT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT IS SET TO MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...LOW CLOUDS COULD THROW
IN YET ANOTHER WRINKLE AND KEEP THEM SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS 700 TO 1500 WILL CONTINUE THRU 03Z. SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-65 WHERE BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST. IN FACT WILL JUST MENTION -DZ AT MOST SITES
AS THE RAIN WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN ACCUMULATION.
AFTER 03Z...CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO BELOW 1000 FEET WITH VSBYS 3-5
MILES IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 19Z. MAY EVEN SEE PERIODS BETWEEN 9 AND
13Z WHERE VIS DROPS BELOW 1 SM AT TOI AND MGM. SOME CLEARING TO AT
LEAST MVFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 19 TO 21Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 FEET.
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KBMX 222059
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
259 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS BASICALLY KILLED OFF
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT DRIZZLE. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA IF THEY DO AT ALL BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WHEN THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT IS WHAT IS THROWING A WRENCH ON THIS
FORECAST. GENERALLY...WITH SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE...MODELS HAVE A
BIAS TO CLEAR SKIES WAY TOO FAST. I THINK THIS IS THE CASE FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN FACT...WE MAY NOT CLEAR AT ALL UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS IS VERY EVIDENT WHEN COMPARING
THE MET AND THE MAV AND SEEING SUCH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPERATURES. FOR EXAMPLE...BIRMINGHAM SPREAD FOR THE NEXT 3
PERIODS ARE 7...8 AND 10 DEGREES. THIS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT. IN
CASES LIKE THIS...IT ALMOST WORKS BEST TO JUST TAKE A BLEND OF
BOTH MODELS WHICH IS WHAT I DID.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT ON THE TRAIL WILL BE A SECOND FRONT WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS FRONT IS SET TO MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...LOW CLOUDS COULD THROW
IN YET ANOTHER WRINKLE AND KEEP THEM SLIGHTLY WARMER. FOR NOW WILL
STICK WITH THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS.
10/ARM
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS 1500-2500 WILL CONTINUE THRU 03Z...WITH LCL
CIGS BLO 1000 FEET AT KTOI. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF I-65 WHERE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.
SHOWERS WILL NOT LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TEMPO
GROUP AND HANDLED WITH VCSH. AFTER 03Z...CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO BLO
1000 FEET WITH VSBYS 3-5 MILES IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE.
WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z.
58/ROSE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 44 54 43 58 38 / 20 10 10 10 20
ANNISTON 45 53 44 60 40 / 20 10 10 10 20
BIRMINGHAM 48 58 47 60 44 / 10 10 10 10 20
TUSCALOOSA 46 60 45 61 41 / 10 10 10 10 20
CALERA 46 59 46 60 43 / 10 10 10 10 10
AUBURN 45 56 47 58 44 / 20 10 10 10 10
MONTGOMERY 46 62 44 62 44 / 10 10 10 10 10
TROY 46 62 44 63 42 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 222049
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
249 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A CUTOFF LOW SITUATED JUST OFF THE FL PANHANDLE HAS
SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
APPROACHES THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. ALSO...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES ITS TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS WA/OR/ID. THIS
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...BY TONIGHT THE
MAJORITY (IF NOT ALL) THE RAIN SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN
END...BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY BRING SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
THUS...A COOL DRIZZLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE TN VALLEY AS THE
CUTOFF LOW IS SWIFTLY LIFTED NORTHEAST AND LOWS STAY NEAR STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FURTHERMORE...A LOW CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED
WHICH WILL LEAD TO FOG PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS THE CUTOFF LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST...MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER LEADING TO A COOL DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
LOW CLOUD DECK REMAINS. THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAY PUSH THE CLOUD DECK EASTWARD SOMEWHAT BEFORE
LIFTING...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH HEADWAY IN CLEARING. THUS...AS
WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT...HAVE KEPT LOW TO MID 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NE AL DUE TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WITH THE WEAK WAVES CROSSING THE REGION. HAVE KEPT
THE AREAS OF FOG FOR MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
PRESENT.
MEANWHILE BY TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL HAVE MOVED EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING
A COOL DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMAINING MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA. HAVE PLACED SOME LOW END POPS MAINLY OVER NW AL TUESDAY
NIGHT. ONE THING THAT IS STILL PERPLEXING IS THE TEMP FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY HIGHS. GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE DIVERGENT FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
WITH MAVMOS IN THE MID 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE METMOS IN THE LOW 50S.
AM THINKING THIS HAS TO DO WITH A DIFFERING SOLUTION TO THE TEMP OF
THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. HAVE
CHOSEN TO BLEND THE MET/MAV.
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS OPPOSED TO
COLD. SKY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVING WAY TO LOW 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE REGION...EXPECTING NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THESE TEMPS MAY BE LOWER IF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INCREASES VELOCITY.
.LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANOTHER WAVE
OF COLD AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
EARLY ON THANKSGIVING MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY A DRY COOL
PASSAGE. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL USHER TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S. IN
FACT...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY DROP DURING THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS CLOUDS CLEAR LATE THAT DAY
INTO THE EVENING...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP RAPIDLY.
CLOSE TO FREEZING TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE COLD
NW FLOW ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...IF
THE FIRST FREEZE HAS NOT ALREADY OCCURRED ON FRIDAY MORNING...
EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. TEMPS WILL THEN RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...HAVE INCREASED
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS MED RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 49 55 47 61 45 / 30 10 10 10 20
SHOALS 49 57 48 62 44 / 10 10 10 10 20
VINEMONT 47 55 48 61 44 / 20 10 10 10 10
FAYETTEVILLE 48 53 49 59 44 / 30 20 10 10 20
ALBERTVILLE 47 55 47 60 43 / 30 20 10 10 10
FORT PAYNE 46 54 45 61 44 / 30 20 10 0 10
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
SL.77
000
FXUS64 KMOB 222030
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
229 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)RATHER COMPLEX...BUT
WEAK OCCLUDED SYSTEM ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY EASE OFF
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE AMOUNTS EXPECTED. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO
LINGER INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST. WILL ALSO
HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IF CLOUDS BREAK LATE IN THE DAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
CALM MONDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM COMING TUESDAY EVENING...THEREFORE
WILL NOT BE MUCH TIME FOR CLEARING BUT ALSO NOT MUCH TIME FOR
MOISTURE TO RETURN. FOR NOW WILL ONLY HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY POST FRONTAL OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT MORE
TRICKY AS THERE IS 5 TO 10 DEGREES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...THE MET BEING THE COOLER OF
THE TWO. WILL SHAVE THE MAV A FEW DEGREES WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. /11
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO RAIN EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S TO THE 60S...COOLEST
MORNING ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
AREA. /11
&&
.AVIATION...[18/00Z ISSUANCE]...QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS SPINNING
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUFR DATA
AND TIME HEIGHT FCSTS OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS MAXIMUM WILL RESIDE IN
THE 1000-900 MILLIBAR LAYER THRU NEXT 24H. GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING
BY THE CLOUD EXPANSE ON SATELLITE AND FCST...WILL USE A BLEND OF
LIFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS. SOME -RA/-DZ BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
CLOUDS AND WILL MENTION THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FCST.
PATCHY BR WITH IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. /10
&&
.MARINE...BROAD...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME OFFSHORE AND DECREASE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS. SEAS WILL BE TRENDING LOWER AS WE ENTER THE NEW WEEK.
THE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH A BUILDING
TREND IN SEAS. THE BETTER DEVELOPED SEAS LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE 20 TO
60 NM ZONES THURSDAY/FRIDAY DUE TO THE DURATION AND STRENGTH OF THE
EXPECTED MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH. /10
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...COOL AND HUMID TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY
SOME DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME PATCHES OF FOG AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT. DRIEST AIR WILL BE LATE WEEK WHEN SURFACE HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 35 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOONS. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 48 68 46 71 / 10 05 05 10
PENSACOLA 50 67 50 67 / 10 05 05 10
DESTIN 54 66 53 67 / 10 05 05 10
EVERGREEN 44 65 44 69 / 10 05 05 10
WAYNESBORO 44 65 42 71 / 10 05 05 05
CAMDEN 44 62 44 70 / 10 05 05 10
CRESTVIEW 46 68 42 68 / 10 05 05 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 221819 AAB
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1215 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
MOBILE COUNTY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN IN
THE NEAR TERM. QUITE AN EXPANSE OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT
RAINS BEING SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. MAYBE A
HUNDREDTH OR SO IN SOME GAUGES THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR WEATHER...POP AND QPF THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE MAY SEE SOME OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG
AND WILL HAVE DRIZZLE IN THE MIX AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES. /10
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS SPINNING OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUFR DATA AND
TIME HEIGHT FCSTS OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS MAXIMUM WILL RESIDE IN
THE 1000-900 MILLIBAR LAYER THRU NEXT 24H. GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING
BY THE CLOUD EXPANSE ON SATELLITE AND FCST...WILL USE A BLEND OF
LIFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS. SOME -RA/-DZ BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
CLOUDS AND WILL MENTION THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FCST.
PATCHY BR WITH IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 65 50 68 48 / 10 10 05 05
PENSACOLA 67 52 68 51 / 10 10 05 05
DESTIN 68 55 68 54 / 10 10 05 05
EVERGREEN 62 48 67 45 / 10 20 10 05
WAYNESBORO 61 50 66 43 / 10 10 05 05
CAMDEN 59 50 64 45 / 10 30 10 05
CRESTVIEW 67 49 71 43 / 10 10 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMOB 221739 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1135 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS SPINNING OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUFR DATA AND
TIME HEIGHT FCSTS OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS MAXIMUM WILL RESIDE IN
THE 1000-900 MILLIBAR LAYER THRU NEXT 24H. GIVEN WHAT WE ARE SEEING
BY THE CLOUD EXPANSE ON SATELLITE AND FCST...WILL USE A BLEND OF
LIFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS. SOME -RA/-DZ BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF THE
CLOUDS AND WILL MENTION THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FCST.
PATCHY BR WITH IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 65 50 68 48 / 20 10 05 05
PENSACOLA 67 52 68 51 / 30 10 05 05
DESTIN 68 55 68 54 / 40 10 05 05
EVERGREEN 62 48 67 45 / 40 20 10 05
WAYNESBORO 61 50 66 43 / 40 10 05 05
CAMDEN 59 50 64 45 / 50 30 10 05
CRESTVIEW 67 49 71 43 / 40 10 05 05
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KHUN 221733 AAC
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1133 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SW TO
NE...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA.
HOWEVER...UPGLIDING OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRIZZLE INTO THE EVENING. DRIZZLE MIXED WITH MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT AREA WIDE. MAINLY IFR FLYING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG
BEFORE DAYBREAK MON.
&&
.DISCUSSION... / ISSUED 1033 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
WIDESPREAD...MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUED...AS A SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA/
FLORIDA BORDER...WHILE ITS UPPER REFLECTION (500MB ) WAS TILTED NW
TO NORTH OF TUSCALOOSA. A PRETTY SOLID CLOUD DECK COVERED MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN STATES...WITH SOME THINNING NOTED FROM WEST OF
BIRMINGHAM...TO ANNISTON AND WEST OF ATLANTA. GIVEN THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...ONLY OUR FAR SE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF OPENING IN THE CLOUD BEFORE THE OVERCAST RETURNS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA THUS FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER
OF AN INCH...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER NE ALABAMA AND ADJACENT TENNESSEE
PUSHING 1/2 OF AN INCH OR SO.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST...AS THIS SYSTEM SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SE COAST.
THAT BEING SAID...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR OUR FAR
NW AREAS...AS UPGLIDE IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING A LEAST SOME
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THERE. HAVE LEFT CATEGORICAL AMOUNTS IN
FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE
BORDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST SPOTS HAS ALREADY BEEN REACHED...
THEREFORE A NEAR STEADY WORDING CONJURED BY THE FORMATTER AND FROM
THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE SHOULD WORK.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/DISCUSSION...RSB
000
FXUS64 KBMX 221732
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE STORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF OVER NORTH ALABAMA
IS LIFTING NORTHEAST AND PUSHING BEST LIFT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO
TENNESSEE. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS MOVING INTO SOUTH ALABAMA ON SOUTH
SIDE OF EXITING SHORT WAVE TROF. WITH SUBSIDENCE ON BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SHORT WAVE TROF AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS AREA
TODAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...AND LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-65. CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
58/ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LOW CLOUDS WITH CIGS 1500-2500 WILL CONTINUE THRU 03Z...WITH LCL
CIGS BLO 1000 FEET AT KTOI. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
AREAS EAST OF I-65 WHERE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.
SHOWERS WILL NOT LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TEMPO
GROUP AND HANDLED WITH VCSH. AFTER 03Z...CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO BLO
1000 FEET WITH VSBYS 3-5 MILES IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE.
WIDESPREAD IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z.
58/ROSE
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
