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000
FXUS64 KLZK 081955
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
155 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE PRECIP CHANCES AND RAIN
AMOUNTS WITH INFLUENCE OF GULF SURFACE LOW...HUR IDA...AND COLD
FRONT.
SEEING CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY
PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MILD TEMPS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL WITH
UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE AND THE SOUTH WIND FLOW INTO AR. MOISTURE
INFLUX CONTINUING INTO AR WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS REACHING 60
OVER SOUTH TO CENTRAL...WHILE 50S ELSEWHERE. DID SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING...AND WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME AGAIN MONDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT IT TO BE OFF SET WITH CLOUDS. SOUNDING HAD A STRONG
INVERSION AT 3K TO 4K FT...THEN QUITE DRY ALOFT. THE INITIAL
ENERGY AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEX...HUR IDA WAS
NEAR THE YUCATAN PEN...AND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD DOWN
EXTENT. WHILE MODELS SHOWING INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY
SHIFTING EAST TO MAINLY LA...FAR SE AR...TO MS. GFS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH THAN NAM...AND ECMWF HOLDING IT BACK FARTHER SOUTH. ON
MONDAY...POP CHANCES COME UP TO SLIGHT CENTRAL AR...WHILE CHANCE
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PULLING THE
INITIAL ENERGY BACK EAST TOWARD THE MAIN CENTER OF IDA...HENCE
RAIN AMOUNTS AND POPS REFLECT THIS TREND. IS NO REASON TO CHANGE
THIS AT THIS TIME. THIS TREND HOLDS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE MODELS PULL PRECIP AND ENERGY EAST TO MS AND AL.
FORECAST TAPPERS RAIN TO TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE HOLD A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER AR AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE STATE.
THEN RAIN IS TAPERED OFF OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
EAST OF AR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. DRY AND COOLER WEDNESDAY.
SOME UNCERTAIN DOES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY INFLUENCE OF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND RAIN CHANCES AND RAIN AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO
ADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER...ESPECIALLY OVER SE AR...IF MOISTURE INFLUX
AND ENERGY STAYS CLOSER TO AR. CURRENT RAIN AMOUNT FORECAST HAS
AROUND A TENTH NORTHWEST AR...TO NEAR ONE INCH SE AR. AS FOR
TEMPS...WILL RUN NEAR NORMALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED...BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...AND KEEP DRY
WEATHER OVER THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS
SATURDAY... AND MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE...THE FRONT MAY SLOW OR STALL...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN
CHANCES IN THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 51 70 51 66 / 0 10 20 20
CAMDEN AR 54 70 53 72 / 10 30 30 20
HARRISON AR 50 72 49 63 / 10 10 20 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 53 71 51 69 / 10 10 20 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 53 70 52 69 / 10 20 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 54 69 54 71 / 10 40 30 20
MOUNT IDA AR 52 72 50 69 / 10 10 20 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 71 49 64 / 0 10 20 20
NEWPORT AR 52 70 51 67 / 0 10 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 54 70 53 70 / 10 30 30 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 51 71 50 66 / 10 10 20 20
SEARCY AR 52 70 52 68 / 10 10 20 20
STUTTGART AR 53 70 53 69 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 081723 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1123 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...AS LOWER
CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST MOVE NORTH. WILL KEEP VFR PREVAILING
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH STRATUS
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN. HAVE KEPT VSBY AND CIGS AT MVFR...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. SEEING CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND WILL
FINE TUNE WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE. PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT LOOSER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUING INTO AR WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS REACHING 60 OVER SOUTH TO CENTRAL...WHILE
50S ELSEWHERE. DID SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WHILE LOWER
STRATUS WELL DEPICTED IN 12Z KLZK SOUNDING WITH STRONG INVERSION AT
3-4K FT...THEN QUITE DRY ALOFT. MODELS STILL SURGING MOISTURE FLUX
INTO SOUTHERN LA BY MONDAY 12Z...WHILE EAST FLOW SETS UP INTO AR.
IDA NOW CAT 1 HUR...BUT FORECAST DOES WEAKEN IT BACK TO TS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES EAST NORTH EAST TUESDAY. (59)
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...58
000
FXUS64 KLZK 081655 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1055 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. SEEING CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
FROM THE SOUTH...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FORECAST AND WILL
FINE TUNE WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE. PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT LOOSER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUING INTO AR WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS REACHING 60 OVER SOUTH TO CENTRAL...WHILE
50S ELSEWHERE. DID SEE SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...WHILE LOWER
STRATUS WELL DEPICTED IN 12Z KLZK SOUNDING WITH STRONG INVERSION AT
3-4K FT...THEN QUITE DRY ALOFT. MODELS STILL SURGING MOISTURE FLUX
INTO SOUTHERN LA BY MONDAY 12Z...WHILE EAST FLOW SETS UP INTO AR.
IDA NOW CAT 1 HUR...BUT FORECAST DOES WEAKEN IT BACK TO TS AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST AND MOVES EAST NORTH EAST TUESDAY. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BUT
AFFECTING ARKANSAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CIRRUS
ARE OVERSPREADING THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT 3500 FT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
AFFECTING CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS. MORE FOG IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FOG.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY. WHILE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE GULF COAST...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
TIME...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE BUILDS...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS...
WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE
CAROLINAS.
IN ARKANSAS...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. IN
GENERAL...LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BRING DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY EVEN STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 74 51 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 75 54 70 53 / 0 10 30 30
HARRISON AR 75 50 72 49 / 0 10 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 53 71 51 / 0 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 53 70 52 / 0 10 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 74 54 69 54 / 0 10 40 30
MOUNT IDA AR 75 52 72 50 / 0 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 50 71 49 / 0 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 74 52 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 75 54 70 53 / 0 10 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 51 71 50 / 0 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 74 52 70 52 / 0 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 74 53 70 53 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 081202
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
602 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BUT
AFFECTING ARKANSAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. CIRRUS
ARE OVERSPREADING THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THRUOGH
SOUTH AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT 3500 FT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
AFFECTING CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS. MORE FOG IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FOG.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY. WHILE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE GULF COAST...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
TIME...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE BUILDS...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS...
WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE
CAROLINAS.
IN ARKANSAS...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. IN
GENERAL...LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BRING DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY EVEN STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 74 51 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 75 54 70 53 / 0 10 30 30
HARRISON AR 75 50 72 49 / 0 10 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 53 71 51 / 0 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 53 70 52 / 0 10 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 74 54 69 54 / 0 10 40 30
MOUNT IDA AR 75 52 72 50 / 0 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 50 71 49 / 0 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 74 52 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 75 54 70 53 / 0 10 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 51 71 50 / 0 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 74 52 70 52 / 0 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 74 53 70 53 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 081043
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
443 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION TODAY. WHILE CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN INCREASING SOMEWHAT FROM THE GULF COAST...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
TIME...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM.
AS MOISTURE BUILDS...A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS...
WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE
CAROLINAS.
IN ARKANSAS...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. IN
GENERAL...LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BRING DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE
FRONT MAY EVEN STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 74 51 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 75 54 70 53 / 0 10 30 30
HARRISON AR 75 50 72 49 / 0 10 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 75 53 71 51 / 0 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 53 70 52 / 0 10 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 74 54 69 54 / 0 10 40 30
MOUNT IDA AR 75 52 72 50 / 0 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 50 71 49 / 0 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 74 52 70 51 / 0 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 75 54 70 53 / 0 10 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 51 71 50 / 0 10 10 20
SEARCY AR 74 52 70 52 / 0 10 10 20
STUTTGART AR 74 53 70 53 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 080558
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1158 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
BE NOTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIOINS AND VFR ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE ONCE AGAIN BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFFECTING MAINLY KHOT...BRINGING VISIBILITIES IN THE
IFR RANGE. OTHER TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WILL
EXPERIENCE PATCHY LIGHT FOG...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES.
BY 14Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN STATEWIDE...WITH SOUTH WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF LOW...IDA...AND A COLD FRONT ON ARKANSAS
WEATHER.
THIS MORNING DID SEE STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL
PARTS OF AR...AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MOISTURE INFLUX...EXPECT A SIMILAR RESULT SUNDAY MORNING. DEW
POINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER 50S OVER
THE SOUTH...WHILE AROUND 50 NORTH. MORNING SOUNDING DID INDICATE
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH AREAS OF MIST AND
LIGHT FOG BEING SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE TO FORM OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION. STRATUS CLOUDS DID
THIN AROUND NOON TODAY...LEAVING A SUNNY SKY. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS TO SE IA. THE
UPPER RIDGE HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE U.S. WITH A ZONAL FLOW. TS
IDA WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARB SEA...AND FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL FORECAST THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL PARTS OF AR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF WITH FOG.
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE GULF WITH THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY...THEN AS
TS IDA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. PRECIP CHANCES MAKE IT IN THE
FORECAST AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY...INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH...THEN
SPREADING A BIT MORE NORTH TO CENTRAL AR BY MONDAY AM. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE COMING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL GULF
LOW REACHING THE GULF COASTAL STATES 12Z MONDAY...WHILE IDA
REMAINS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEY ALSO MOVE THE LOW OFF
TO THE EAST PROGRESSIVELY LIMITING THE IMPACT ON AR. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF RAIN AND RAIN AMOUNTS. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE
EXACT MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND FORECASTS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS. LATER TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS
MOVES THROUGH AR...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FORECAST SCENARIO PROJECTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE MID
SOUTH LATE IN THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES DO NOT POINT TOWARDS A LARGE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY BE AFFECTED BY
THE PATH OF T.S. IDA...WHILE FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 49 74 51 70 / 0 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 45 75 54 70 / 0 10 20 30
HARRISON AR 51 75 50 72 / 0 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 75 53 71 / 0 0 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 75 53 70 / 0 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 49 74 54 69 / 0 0 20 40
MOUNT IDA AR 51 75 52 72 / 0 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 75 50 71 / 0 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 50 74 52 70 / 0 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 48 75 54 70 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 74 51 71 / 0 0 10 20
SEARCY AR 49 74 52 70 / 0 0 10 20
STUTTGART AR 50 74 53 70 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 072332
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
532 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE ONCE AGAIN BY
EARLY SUNDAY AFFECTING MAINLY KHOT...BRINGING VISIBILITIES IN THE
IFR RANGE. OTHER TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WILL
EXPERIENCE PATCHY LIGHT FOG...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES.
BY 14Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN STATEWIDE...WITH SOUTH WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF LOW...IDA...AND A COLD FRONT ON ARKANSAS
WEATHER.
THIS MORNING DID SEE STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL
PARTS OF AR...AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MOISTURE INFLUX...EXPECT A SIMILAR RESULT SUNDAY MORNING. DEW
POINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER 50S OVER
THE SOUTH...WHILE AROUND 50 NORTH. MORNING SOUNDING DID INDICATE
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH AREAS OF MIST AND
LIGHT FOG BEING SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE TO FORM OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION. STRATUS CLOUDS DID
THIN AROUND NOON TODAY...LEAVING A SUNNY SKY. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS TO SE IA. THE
UPPER RIDGE HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE U.S. WITH A ZONAL FLOW. TS
IDA WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARB SEA...AND FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL FORECAST THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL PARTS OF AR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF WITH FOG.
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE GULF WITH THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY...THEN AS
TS IDA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. PRECIP CHANCES MAKE IT IN THE
FORECAST AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY...INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH...THEN
SPREADING A BIT MORE NORTH TO CENTRAL AR BY MONDAY AM. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE COMING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL GULF
LOW REACHING THE GULF COASTAL STATES 12Z MONDAY...WHILE IDA
REMAINS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEY ALSO MOVE THE LOW OFF
TO THE EAST PROGRESSIVELY LIMITING THE IMPACT ON AR. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF RAIN AND RAIN AMOUNTS. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE
EXACT MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND FORECASTS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS. LATER TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS
MOVES THROUGH AR...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FORECAST SCENARIO PROJECTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE MID
SOUTH LATE IN THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES DO NOT POINT TOWARDS A LARGE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY BE AFFECTED BY
THE PATH OF T.S. IDA...WHILE FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 51 74 51 70 / 0 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 52 75 54 70 / 0 10 20 30
HARRISON AR 52 75 50 72 / 0 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 75 53 71 / 0 0 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 75 53 70 / 0 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 50 74 54 69 / 0 0 20 40
MOUNT IDA AR 50 75 52 72 / 0 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 75 50 71 / 0 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 51 74 52 70 / 0 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 51 75 54 70 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 74 51 71 / 0 0 10 20
SEARCY AR 52 74 52 70 / 0 0 10 20
STUTTGART AR 52 74 53 70 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...61
000
FXUS64 KLZK 072009
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
209 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE REMAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF LOW...IDA...AND A COLD FRONT ON ARKANSAS
WEATHER.
THIS MORNING DID SEE STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL
PARTS OF AR...AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
MOISTURE INFLUX...EXPECT A SIMILAR RESULT SUNDAY MORNING. DEW
POINT TEMPS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER 50S OVER
THE SOUTH...WHILE AROUND 50 NORTH. MORNING SOUNDING DID INDICATE
TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW THE INVERSION...WITH AREAS OF MIST AND
LIGHT FOG BEING SEEN THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE TO FORM OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION. STRATUS CLOUDS DID
THIN AROUND NOON TODAY...LEAVING A SUNNY SKY. ALSO AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS TO SE IA. THE
UPPER RIDGE HAS FLATTENED ACROSS THE U.S. WITH A ZONAL FLOW. TS
IDA WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARB SEA...AND FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL FORECAST THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM AGAIN TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL PARTS OF AR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF WITH FOG.
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE GULF WITH THE SURFACE LOW INITIALLY...THEN AS
TS IDA MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. PRECIP CHANCES MAKE IT IN THE
FORECAST AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY...INITIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTH...THEN
SPREADING A BIT MORE NORTH TO CENTRAL AR BY MONDAY AM. GFS AND
ECMWF ARE COMING IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL GULF
LOW REACHING THE GULF COASTAL STATES 12Z MONDAY...WHILE IDA
REMAINS MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEY ALSO MOVE THE LOW OFF
TO THE EAST PROGRESSIVELY LIMITING THE IMPACT ON AR. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF RAIN AND RAIN AMOUNTS. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN THE
EXACT MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND FORECASTS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS. LATER TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS
MOVES THROUGH AR...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER INTO THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FORECAST SCENARIO PROJECTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE MID
SOUTH LATE IN THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST PARCEL
TRAJECTORIES DO NOT POINT TOWARDS A LARGE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY BE AFFECTED BY
THE PATH OF T.S. IDA...WHILE FUTURE FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 51 74 51 70 / 0 0 10 10
CAMDEN AR 52 75 54 70 / 0 10 20 30
HARRISON AR 52 75 50 72 / 0 0 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 75 53 71 / 0 0 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 75 53 70 / 0 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 50 74 54 69 / 0 0 20 40
MOUNT IDA AR 50 75 52 72 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 75 50 71 / 0 0 10 10
NEWPORT AR 51 74 52 70 / 0 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 51 75 54 70 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 74 51 71 / 0 0 10 10
SEARCY AR 52 74 52 70 / 0 0 10 10
STUTTGART AR 52 74 53 70 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60 / LONG TERM...55
000
FXUS64 KLZK 071706
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1106 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AGAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 9Z-14Z/8.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER DUE TO STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL PARTS. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE THINNING THIS LATER MORNING AND
EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY IN SOUTHWEST AREAS...WHILE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY ELSEWHERE. DID LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE TO TWO IN CLOUD AREA...
WHILE TEMPS ON TRACK ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST ON
TRACK. MODELS ARE SHOWING GULF SYSTEM MORE EAST WITH EACH RUN AND
AFFECTS ON AR MAY BE LESS. (59)
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE ARKANSAS WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH WILL KEEP ARKANSAS IN A DRY
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...MOISTURE SURROUNDING IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL END UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT KEEPING HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN OUT OF ARKANSAS.
FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. QPF WILL
BE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...IT IS RARE TO HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE
THIS FAR WEST IN NOVEMBER. IT IS MORE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN
GULF/ATLANTIC...WHICH FITS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE STATE. A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 73 51 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 77 52 75 54 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 75 52 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 77 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 76 50 75 52 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 51 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 72 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 50 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 74 52 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 75 52 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...99
000
FXUS64 KLZK 071636 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1035 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST EARLIER DUE TO STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL PARTS. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE THINNING THIS LATER MORNING AND
EXPECTING PARTLY SUNNY IN SOUTHWEST AREAS...WHILE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY ELSEWHERE. DID LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE TO TWO IN CLOUD AREA...
WHILE TEMPS ON TRACK ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST ON
TRACK. MODELS ARE SHOWING GULF SYSTEM MORE EAST WITH EACH RUN AND
AFFECTS ON AR MAY BE LESS. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE ARKANSAS WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH WILL KEEP ARKANSAS IN A DRY
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...MOISTURE SURROUNDING IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL END UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT KEEPING HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN OUT OF ARKANSAS.
FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. QPF WILL
BE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...IT IS RARE TO HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE
THIS FAR WEST IN NOVEMBER. IT IS MORE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN
GULF/ATLANTIC...WHICH FITS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE STATE. A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 73 51 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 77 52 75 54 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 75 52 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 77 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 77 50 75 52 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 51 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 72 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 50 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 74 52 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 75 52 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 071532 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
935 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FORECAST DUE TO STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL
PARTS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY THIN THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE TO TWO IN THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY REST OF STATE WITH MILD TEMPS. (59)
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE ARKANSAS WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH WILL KEEP ARKANSAS IN A DRY
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...MOISTURE SURROUNDING IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL END UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT KEEPING HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN OUT OF ARKANSAS.
FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. QPF WILL
BE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...IT IS RARE TO HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE
THIS FAR WEST IN NOVEMBER. IT IS MORE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN
GULF/ATLANTIC...WHICH FITS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE STATE. A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 73 51 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 77 52 75 54 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 75 52 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 77 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 77 50 75 52 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 51 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 72 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 50 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 74 52 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 75 52 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 071129
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
529 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE ARKANSAS WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOME
CIRRUS MOVING IN FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH WILL KEEP ARKANSAS IN A DRY
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...MOISTURE SURROUNDING IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL END UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT KEEPING HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN OUT OF ARKANSAS.
FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. QPF WILL
BE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...IT IS RARE TO HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE
THIS FAR WEST IN NOVEMBER. IT IS MORE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN
GULF/ATLANTIC...WHICH FITS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE STATE. A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 73 51 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 77 52 75 54 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 75 52 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 77 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 77 50 75 52 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 51 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 72 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 50 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 74 52 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 75 52 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 071008 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
405 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH WILL KEEP ARKANSAS IN A DRY
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...MOISTURE SURROUNDING IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL END UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT KEEPING HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN OUT OF ARKANSAS.
FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. QPF WILL
BE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...IT IS RARE TO HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE
THIS FAR WEST IN NOVEMBER. IT IS MORE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN
GULF/ATLANTIC...WHICH FITS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE STATE. A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 73 51 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 77 52 75 54 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 75 52 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 76 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 75 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 77 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 77 50 75 52 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 51 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 72 51 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 51 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 75 50 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 74 52 74 52 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 75 52 74 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 070948
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
348 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HIGH WILL KEEP ARKANSAS IN A DRY
PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SLOW
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...MOISTURE SURROUNDING IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SURGE NORTHWARD. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL END UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT KEEPING HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN OUT OF ARKANSAS.
FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. QPF WILL
BE A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH SEVERAL INCHES
POSSIBLE FROM MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...IT IS RARE TO HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE
THIS FAR WEST IN NOVEMBER. IT IS MORE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN
GULF/ATLANTIC...WHICH FITS THE EXPECTED SCENARIO.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY DRIER/SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER THE STATE. A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 72 49 72 51 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 76 49 74 54 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 75 52 75 50 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 50 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 49 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 75 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 74 49 73 52 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 74 51 74 50 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 69 49 70 52 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 74 49 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 73 50 73 51 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 72 49 72 52 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 72 49 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 070542
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1142 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS.
A FEW MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
ARKANSAS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH...AND GUSTS
TO 22 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AFFECTING ARKANSAS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF
AR AND A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW HAS RETURNED TO AR. A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
UPPER RIDGE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF FLATTENING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
UPPER PLAINS...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. PATCHY MID CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AR.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
DURING THE DAYS. THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE SOUTH FLOW...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT AS
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER THE GULF. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEARS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX
INTO LA AND SOUTHERN AR BY MONDAY MORNING THAN THE GFS. WHILE BOTH
HAVE A LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH AFFECTING THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
WHILE THE ANY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WOULD STAY FARTHER EAST AND
THEN RECURVE TOWARD FL TUESDAY. AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AND ITS MOVEMENT HAVE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THEM...WHILE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS WELL WITH
CHANCE POPS LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. AS THE WEEKEND
UNFOLDS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THE FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM AROUND A FEW TENTHS OVER
NORTHWEST AREAS TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO AR...RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO START
THE PERIOD. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS SHOW MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 51 72 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 54 76 49 74 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 53 75 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 53 74 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 53 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 52 75 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 52 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 53 74 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 51 69 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 54 74 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 52 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 52 72 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 53 72 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 062326
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
526 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AFFECTING ARKANSAS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF
AR AND A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND FLOW HAS RETURNED TO AR. A
GRADUAL MOISTURE INFLUX WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE
UPPER RIDGE WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF FLATTENING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
UPPER PLAINS...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST FROM THE NORTHWEST
U.S. PATCHY MID CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON AR.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY
DURING THE DAYS. THE MOISTURE INFLUX WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE SOUTH FLOW...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT AS
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WRAPS UP OVER THE GULF. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEARS THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE FLUX
INTO LA AND SOUTHERN AR BY MONDAY MORNING THAN THE GFS. WHILE BOTH
HAVE A LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH AFFECTING THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
WHILE THE ANY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WOULD STAY FARTHER EAST AND
THEN RECURVE TOWARD FL TUESDAY. AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW AND ITS MOVEMENT HAVE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THEM...WHILE CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS WELL WITH
CHANCE POPS LATER MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. AS THE WEEKEND
UNFOLDS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE THE FORECAST. AT THIS
TIME OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE FROM AROUND A FEW TENTHS OVER
NORTHWEST AREAS TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO AR...RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHER.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO START
THE PERIOD. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WORK WEEK...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS SHOW MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 48 72 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 51 76 49 74 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 51 75 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 50 74 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 50 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 50 75 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 49 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 74 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 49 69 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 51 74 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 49 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 50 72 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 51 72 49 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
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