[top]
000
FXUS64 KLZK 222353
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AS
LOW CLOUDS BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE REST OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AROUND SUNRISE.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY...AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL HANDLING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE
NAM BEING 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
GFS...WITH RAINFALL EXITING THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER QUESTION WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY IS THUNDER CHANCES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM...AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
TO THE NORTH. HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDER FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR FOR
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOW...WITH AN AVERAGE OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTH
AND EAST WARMED CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FOR WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID
SOUTH. GFS CONTINUES TO WAFFLE ON THE DEPTH AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
THE POSITIONING OF A DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ECMWF
ALSO ADVERTISING THIS FEATURE...IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN HOW IT
HANDLES IT AND IS THEREFORE...THE PREFERRED SOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH ONE FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PROVIDING NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS....EXPECT A BREEZY AND COOL THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS.
NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND WHILE SOME MOISTURE
DOES RETURN...WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS FAR OUT
BUT COOLER AIR WILL POUR BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 47 63 46 60 / 10 0 20 50
CAMDEN AR 45 70 49 64 / 10 0 20 50
HARRISON AR 45 62 43 57 / 0 0 30 40
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 67 48 62 / 0 0 20 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 46 66 48 62 / 10 0 20 50
MONTICELLO AR 46 69 48 65 / 10 0 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 45 67 47 61 / 0 0 30 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 46 62 44 58 / 0 0 20 50
NEWPORT AR 47 63 47 61 / 10 0 10 40
PINE BLUFF AR 47 67 48 64 / 10 0 10 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 46 65 46 59 / 0 0 30 50
SEARCY AR 47 64 47 61 / 10 0 10 40
STUTTGART AR 47 66 48 62 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...225
000
FXUS64 KLZK 222026
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
226 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS IN THE GRIDS
OVERNIGHT...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AROUND SUNRISE.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY...AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE STILL HANDLING THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE
NAM BEING 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER. HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
GFS...WITH RAINFALL EXITING THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER QUESTION WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY IS THUNDER CHANCES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM...AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
TO THE NORTH. HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDER FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR FOR
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE KEPT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOW...WITH AN AVERAGE OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE TRICKY...WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTH
AND EAST WARMED CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS ACROSS THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING THE DAY. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FOR WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID
SOUTH. GFS CONTINUES TO WAFFLE ON THE DEPTH AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
THE POSITIONING OF A DEEP UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE MOVING IT OFF TO NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ECMWF
ALSO ADVERTISING THIS FEATURE...IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN HOW IT
HANDLES IT AND IS THEREFORE...THE PREFERRED SOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH ONE FRONTAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PROVIDING NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS....EXPECT A BREEZY AND COOL THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AS UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS.
NEXT FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND WHILE SOME MOISTURE
DOES RETURN...WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS FAR OUT
BUT COOLER AIR WILL POUR BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 221734
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1134 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT LLQ...WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE AT LLQ AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OF BY MID
MORNING...WITH VRF CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF RAIN SE AR
TODAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WITH COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
AREA 88D RADARS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MS WITH
SOME PRECIP ROTATING BACK TO SE AR. PRECIP WAS VERY SPOTTY AND
VERY LITTLE REACHING GROUND. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF KNEW...WITH EAST FLOW BACK INTO AR. MAIN CONVECTION WAS
CLOSER TO THE LOW...AND LIKEWISE THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MS AND MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE OVER
MOST OF AR...BUT THINNING WAS SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST AR. ALSO
ALOFT A SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER MS TO THE EAST. 00Z KLZK
SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE UP TO 0.79 INCHES WITH THE EAST
WIND FLOW SURFACE TO 15K FEET.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SE AR THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN TODAY...BUT STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS TO THE
EAST. EAST WIND FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA. MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPS. SKIES STILL APPEAR TO BE PARTLY SUNNY
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA. LATE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH
THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE
GFS. ON TUESDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES DO REACH AROUND ONE INCH.
LOW LEVEL JET IS MARGINAL WITH ONLY AROUND 30 KNTS INTO AR ON
TUESDAY. ALSO INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW...AND HENCE HAVE KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOME ELEVATED LIGHTNING MAY
BE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS ISSUE. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN LATER TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD
AIR DOES FILTER INTO AR LATER WEDNESDAY TO THANKSGIVING DAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MIDWEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AS A RESULT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY BUT WILL FLATTEN OUT BY THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN LATE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...224
000
FXUS64 KLZK 221150
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE. PARTIAL CLEARING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE WEST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY THOUGH WILL STALL IN
OKLAHOMA. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BUT WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN. VFR IS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS
TODAY WOULD BE IN THE EAST AND THAT IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AND
DID NOT MENTION IN FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF RAIN SE AR
TODAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WITH COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
AREA 88D RADARS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MS WITH
SOME PRECIP ROTATING BACK TO SE AR. PRECIP WAS VERY SPOTTY AND
VERY LITTLE REACHING GROUND. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF KNEW...WITH EAST FLOW BACK INTO AR. MAIN CONVECTION WAS
CLOSER TO THE LOW...AND LIKEWISE THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MS AND MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE OVER
MOST OF AR...BUT THINNING WAS SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST AR. ALSO
ALOFT A SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER MS TO THE EAST. 00Z KLZK
SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE UP TO 0.79 INCHES WITH THE EAST
WIND FLOW SURFACE TO 15K FEET.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SE AR THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN TODAY...BUT STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS TO THE
EAST. EAST WIND FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA. MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPS. SKIES STILL APPEAR TO BE PARTLY SUNNY
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA. LATE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH
THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE
GFS. ON TUESDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES DO REACH AROUND ONE INCH.
LOW LEVEL JET IS MARGINAL WITH ONLY AROUND 30 KNTS INTO AR ON
TUESDAY. ALSO INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW...AND HENCE HAVE KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOME ELEVATED LIGHTNING MAY
BE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS ISSUE. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN LATER TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD
AIR DOES FILTER INTO AR LATER WEDNESDAY TO THANKSGIVING DAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MIDWEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AS A RESULT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY BUT WILL FLATTEN OUT BY THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN LATE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 61 42 62 46 / 0 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 62 43 68 49 / 20 10 0 40
HARRISON AR 63 42 62 43 / 0 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 43 65 48 / 10 0 0 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 44 64 47 / 10 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 60 45 67 48 / 30 10 0 30
MOUNT IDA AR 64 43 66 47 / 10 0 0 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 42 62 44 / 0 0 0 40
NEWPORT AR 61 44 62 46 / 10 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 61 45 66 48 / 10 0 0 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 43 63 46 / 0 0 0 40
SEARCY AR 61 44 63 46 / 10 0 0 30
STUTTGART AR 61 45 64 47 / 10 0 0 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 220907
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
307 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE ANY CHANCES OF RAIN SE AR
TODAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WITH COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
AREA 88D RADARS SHOWING VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MS WITH
SOME PRECIP ROTATING BACK TO SE AR. PRECIP WAS VERY SPOTTY AND
VERY LITTLE REACHING GROUND. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW TO THE
EAST OF KNEW...WITH EAST FLOW BACK INTO AR. MAIN CONVECTION WAS
CLOSER TO THE LOW...AND LIKEWISE THE UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
MS AND MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. OVERCAST CONDITIONS WERE OVER
MOST OF AR...BUT THINNING WAS SEEN OVER PARTS OF WEST AR. ALSO
ALOFT A SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OVER MS TO THE EAST. 00Z KLZK
SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE UP TO 0.79 INCHES WITH THE EAST
WIND FLOW SURFACE TO 15K FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SE AR THIS
MORNING...BUT THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN TODAY...BUT STILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOVING SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS TO THE
EAST. EAST WIND FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH
SOME RETURN FLOW INTO THE AREA. MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH
DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPS. SKIES STILL APPEAR TO BE PARTLY SUNNY
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA. LATE
MONDAY TO TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH
THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE
GFS. ON TUESDAY...PRECIP WATER VALUES DO REACH AROUND ONE INCH.
LOW LEVEL JET IS MARGINAL WITH ONLY AROUND 30 KNTS INTO AR ON
TUESDAY. ALSO INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW...AND HENCE HAVE KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOME ELEVATED LIGHTNING MAY
BE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS ISSUE. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN LATER TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD
AIR DOES FILTER INTO AR LATER WEDNESDAY TO THANKSGIVING DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MIDWEST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. AS A RESULT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THE RIDGE
WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY BUT WILL FLATTEN OUT BY THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN LATE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 61 41 62 46 / 0 0 0 30
CAMDEN AR 62 42 68 49 / 10 10 0 40
HARRISON AR 63 41 62 43 / 0 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 42 65 48 / 10 0 0 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 43 64 47 / 10 0 0 30
MONTICELLO AR 60 44 67 48 / 30 10 0 30
MOUNT IDA AR 64 42 66 47 / 10 0 0 40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 41 62 44 / 0 0 0 40
NEWPORT AR 61 43 62 46 / 10 0 0 30
PINE BLUFF AR 61 44 66 48 / 10 0 0 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 42 63 46 / 0 0 0 40
SEARCY AR 61 43 63 46 / 10 0 0 30
STUTTGART AR 61 44 64 47 / 20 0 0 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 220538
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1138 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
MAINLY MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL PERSIST ACRS THE AREA HEADING INTO
SUN...RESULTING IN VFR CONDS. SFC LOW PRES OVR SERN LA WL CONT TO
TRACK NEWD THRU THE PD. SOME LIGHT RAIN WL RMN POSSIBLE OVR SERN AR
BUT SHLD ONLY PRODUCE OCNL MVFR CIGS. DUE TO LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE...CONTD TO MENTION VCSH FOR KPBF AND KLLQ FOR LATE TNGT AND
MOST OF SUN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL PREVAIL OVR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO SUN...
WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. LOW PRES ALONG THE GLF COAST
WL CONT LIFTING NEWD TNGT AND SUN. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL ROTATE NWWD
INTO PARTS OF CNTRL AND SERN AR LATER TNGT AND SUN...WITH MOST
CIGS ARND 4-5KT FT. PTCHY LGT RAIN WL EFFECT SERN AR /MAINLY KLLQ/
WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST...WITH UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE STILL IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY
AND LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AND THINK THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
REDUCED. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR
MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING ANY MORE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT INITIALLY BEFORE DIVERGING
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. GFS PATTERN IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED VERSUS THE ECMWF AND DROPS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER
LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY VERSUS THE
ECMWF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH GFS ADVERTISING A NEARLY DRY ZONAL FLOW WITH ECMWF SHOWING
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THIS PERIOD WITH
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCES BUT LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH ONE UPPER LOW PULLING OUT AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND IT WILL ONLY BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.
AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEEPEN PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A COOL BUT DRY TURKEY DAY. AS UPPER
LOW PULLS OUT...FLOW DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES ZONAL TO END THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY AT THIS POINT BUT POPS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADDED IF ECMWF IS INDEED THE BETTER CHOICE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL BEYOND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 46 61 41 62 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 48 62 42 68 / 40 10 10 0
HARRISON AR 43 63 41 62 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 47 63 42 65 / 20 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 47 62 43 64 / 20 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 48 60 44 67 / 40 10 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 44 64 42 66 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 44 62 41 62 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 45 61 43 62 / 20 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 47 61 44 66 / 30 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 44 63 42 63 / 20 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 45 61 43 63 / 20 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 46 61 44 64 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
000
FXUS64 KLZK 212333
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
533 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL PREVAIL OVR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO SUN...
WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. LOW PRES ALONG THE GLF COAST
WL CONT LIFTING NEWD TNGT AND SUN. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL ROTATE NWWD
INTO PARTS OF CNTRL AND SERN AR LATER TNGT AND SUN...WITH MOST
CIGS ARND 4-5KT FT. PTCHY LGT RAIN WL EFFECT SERN AR /MAINLY KLLQ/
WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST...WITH UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE STILL IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY
AND LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AND THINK THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
REDUCED. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR
MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING ANY MORE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT INITIALLY BEFORE DIVERGING
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. GFS PATTERN IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED VERSUS THE ECMWF AND DROPS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER
LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY VERSUS THE
ECMWF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH GFS ADVERTISING A NEARLY DRY ZONAL FLOW WITH ECMWF SHOWING
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THIS PERIOD WITH
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCES BUT LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH ONE UPPER LOW PULLING OUT AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND IT WILL ONLY BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.
AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEEPEN PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A COOL BUT DRY TURKEY DAY. AS UPPER
LOW PULLS OUT...FLOW DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES ZONAL TO END THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY AT THIS POINT BUT POPS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADDED IF ECMWF IS INDEED THE BETTER CHOICE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL BEYOND.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLZK 211934
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
134 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST...WITH UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE STILL IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPOTTY
AND LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
IN MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST...AND THINK THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
REDUCED. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR
MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING ANY MORE.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MODELS IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT INITIALLY BEFORE DIVERGING
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. GFS PATTERN IS MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED VERSUS THE ECMWF AND DROPS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER UPPER
LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY VERSUS THE
ECMWF.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL WITH GFS ADVERTISING A NEARLY DRY ZONAL FLOW WITH ECMWF SHOWING
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND. NEEDLESS TO SAY CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW THIS PERIOD WITH
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEING WHAT THEY ARE. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCES BUT LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS.
PERIOD INITIATES WITH ONE UPPER LOW PULLING OUT AND UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND IT WILL ONLY BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR.
AS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEEPEN PROVIDING THE AREA WITH A COOL BUT DRY TURKEY DAY. AS UPPER
LOW PULLS OUT...FLOW DEAMPLIFIES AND BECOMES ZONAL TO END THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY AT THIS POINT BUT POPS WILL HAVE TO BE
ADDED IF ECMWF IS INDEED THE BETTER CHOICE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL BEYOND.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 211738
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH OF THE STATE TO THE EAST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
WESTERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES WITH THE EAST
THE LAST TO SEE DRYING CONDITIONS. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THEN
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT 88D RADARS DEPICTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF
COAST WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST. STRONGEST CONVECTION CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TX AND ROTATING
ENERGY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAS
MOISTENED UP TO NEAR ONE INCH FOR PRECIP WATER...WITH A LIGHT
VEERING PROFILE...WHILE QUITE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NOT SEEING MUCH
LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME...AND DONT EXPECT MUCH OVER AR DUE TO
STABLE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY EXPECTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NORTH AR
TODAY...WHILE TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTH AR. MAINLY
WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
RAIN OR SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. MODELS DO
CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST UPPER ENERGY OVER LA TO LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CONVECTION. OVER
AR...ENERGY WILL SHEAR OUT...HENCE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS OVER AR.
MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER LA...WITH SOME ENERGY
INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AR. POP HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST...THEN A BIT NORTHEAST...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AR SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW MAINLY EAST...BECOMING A BIT NORTHEAST...
BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY TO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SEEN WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MEAN FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
REACHES AR. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...AND OVERALL POP AND
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. SOME FRONTAL TIMING SEEN IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH GFS A BIT FASTER. FORECAST GENERALLY WENT WITH A BIT
FASTER TREND OF GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT COOLING TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. BEHIND
THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 64 43 62 43 / 20 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 61 45 66 44 / 50 30 10 10
HARRISON AR 62 41 63 44 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 43 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 44 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 61 46 65 43 / 50 30 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 63 42 64 44 / 40 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 42 62 44 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 65 44 61 43 / 20 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 62 45 64 43 / 40 30 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 42 64 44 / 20 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 64 44 62 44 / 20 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 64 45 63 43 / 30 20 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
000
FXUS64 KLZK 211110
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
510 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING...WHILE MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE STATE TONIGHT...BUT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THEN
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT 88D RADARS DEPICTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF
COAST WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST. STRONGEST CONVECTION CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TX AND ROTATING
ENERGY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAS
MOISTENED UP TO NEAR ONE INCH FOR PRECIP WATER...WITH A LIGHT
VEERING PROFILE...WHILE QUITE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NOT SEEING MUCH
LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME...AND DONT EXPECT MUCH OVER AR DUE TO
STABLE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY EXPECTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NORTH AR
TODAY...WHILE TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTH AR. MAINLY
WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
RAIN OR SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. MODELS DO
CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST UPPER ENERGY OVER LA TO LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CONVECTION. OVER
AR...ENERGY WILL SHEAR OUT...HENCE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS OVER AR.
MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER LA...WITH SOME ENERGY
INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AR. POP HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST...THEN A BIT NORTHEAST...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AR SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW MAINLY EAST...BECOMING A BIT NORTHEAST...
BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY TO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SEEN WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MEAN FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
REACHES AR. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...AND OVERALL POP AND
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. SOME FRONTAL TIMING SEEN IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH GFS A BIT FASTER. FORECAST GENERALLY WENT WITH A BIT
FASTER TREND OF GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT COOLING TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. BEHIND
THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 61 43 62 43 / 20 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 62 45 66 44 / 60 50 10 10
HARRISON AR 58 41 63 44 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 43 64 44 / 40 30 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 44 64 44 / 30 30 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 62 46 65 43 / 50 50 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 61 42 64 44 / 40 30 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 42 62 44 / 20 20 10 10
NEWPORT AR 62 44 61 43 / 20 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 62 45 64 43 / 40 40 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 42 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 61 44 62 44 / 30 30 10 10
STUTTGART AR 62 45 63 43 / 30 30 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210845
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
245 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THEN
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
CURRENT 88D RADARS DEPICTING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS
MOVING NORTH INTO AR. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF
COAST WITH WARM FRONT ALONG THE COAST. STRONGEST CONVECTION CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST TX AND ROTATING
ENERGY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND AR. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAS
MOISTENED UP TO NEAR ONE INCH FOR PRECIP WATER...WITH A LIGHT
VEERING PROFILE...WHILE QUITE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NOT SEEING MUCH
LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME...AND DONT EXPECT MUCH OVER AR DUE TO
STABLE CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY EXPECTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NORTH AR
TODAY...WHILE TRANSITIONING TO LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTH AR. MAINLY
WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
RAIN OR SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT WILL BE LIMITED. MODELS DO
CONCENTRATE THE GREATEST UPPER ENERGY OVER LA TO LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY...AND THIS AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CONVECTION. OVER
AR...ENERGY WILL SHEAR OUT...HENCE LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS OVER AR.
MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER LOW IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OVER LA...WITH SOME ENERGY
INTO MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AR. POP HAS BEEN FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST...THEN A BIT NORTHEAST...BEFORE MOVING OUT OF AR SUNDAY
MORNING. SURFACE FLOW MAINLY EAST...BECOMING A BIT NORTHEAST...
BEFORE BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATER SUNDAY TO MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL STILL BE SEEN WITH SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE MEAN FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THEN
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE BACK IN THE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
REACHES AR. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW...AND OVERALL POP AND
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. SOME FRONTAL TIMING SEEN IN GFS AND
ECMWF...WITH GFS A BIT FASTER. FORECAST GENERALLY WENT WITH A BIT
FASTER TREND OF GFS. THEN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT COOLING TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE STATE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. BEHIND
THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO SET UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 60 43 62 43 / 20 20 10 10
CAMDEN AR 62 45 66 44 / 40 30 10 10
HARRISON AR 60 41 63 44 / 20 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 43 65 44 / 30 20 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 44 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 62 46 65 43 / 50 40 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 61 42 65 44 / 30 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 60 42 62 44 / 20 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 60 44 61 43 / 20 20 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 61 45 64 43 / 30 30 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 42 64 44 / 30 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 60 44 62 44 / 30 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 61 45 63 43 / 40 30 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210525
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1125 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...
MID LVL CLOUDS WL RMN ABUNDANT ACRS MUCH OF THE FA DURG THE
OVERNIGHT HRS. PATCHY LGT RAIN WL ALSO OCCUR...MAINLY OVR THE NRN
HALF OF AR. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THRU MUCH OF THE PD...WITH PARTS OF
WRN AND NRN AR EXPECTED TO SEE OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE TNGT AND
EARLY SAT MRNG. WINDS WL BE LGT E/NELY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS ON SAT.
LOW PRES MOVG EWD ALONG THE GLF COAST COULD BRING SOME LGT RAIN INTO
SERN AR TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD ACROSS WRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR
DUE TO ONGOING -SHRA ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARDS MORNING. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA FOR
MUCH OF SAT. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW OTHER MINOR CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO CONTEND
WITH. FIRST UP IS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALSO
GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
NAM SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS DONE THE OPPOSITE...MOVING THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND SPEEDING IT UP. BASED ON THE MODEL TRENDS AND
PERFORMANCES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GFS BUT NOT
QUITE AS FAST AS THE MODEL IS SHOWING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT EVEN HERE ...ONLY SCATTERED
POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER VERSUS
DAYS PAST WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
FOLLOWING THE FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BEING SHOWN BY THE
GFS...I WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WILL SWING WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
COME MONDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN ADVANCING H5 TROF THAT WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AS THE TROF EJECTS EAST...THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE PERIOD ENDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM...THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE
LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN IS TRENDING MORE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION. FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY...AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE TO
START OFF THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL ONLY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 66 47 60 43 / 20 20 20 20
CAMDEN AR 63 50 62 45 / 30 40 40 30
HARRISON AR 63 48 60 41 / 20 30 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 49 61 43 / 30 40 30 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 49 61 44 / 30 30 20 20
MONTICELLO AR 61 50 62 46 / 20 40 40 40
MOUNT IDA AR 60 49 61 42 / 40 50 30 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 48 60 42 / 20 30 10 10
NEWPORT AR 66 46 60 44 / 20 20 20 20
PINE BLUFF AR 62 49 61 45 / 30 30 30 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 50 60 42 / 50 50 20 20
SEARCY AR 66 48 60 44 / 30 30 20 20
STUTTGART AR 64 48 61 45 / 30 30 30 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...60
000
FXUS64 KLZK 210246
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
846 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD ACROSS WRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AR
DUE TO ONGOING -SHRA ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TOWARDS MORNING. CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN CWA FOR
MUCH OF SAT. OTHERWISE...ONLY A FEW OTHER MINOR CHANGES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVR MUCH OF THE FA THRU THE PD.
THE EXCEPTION WL BE OVR PARTS OF NRN AR WHERE PTCHY LGT RAIN
OVERNIGHT WL PRODUCE OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. A STORM SYS WL PASS S
OF AR LATE SAT. SOME LOW CLOUDS/ISOLD SHRA ASSOCD WITH THIS SYS
COULD AFFECT PARTS OF SERN AR SAT AFTN. /44/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO CONTEND
WITH. FIRST UP IS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST
MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALSO
GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
NAM SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE
SURFACE SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS DONE THE OPPOSITE...MOVING THE LOW
TO THE SOUTH AND SPEEDING IT UP. BASED ON THE MODEL TRENDS AND
PERFORMANCES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE GFS BUT NOT
QUITE AS FAST AS THE MODEL IS SHOWING.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN FALLING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROF THAT IS MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE
EAST. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVIEST OF THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT EVEN HERE ...ONLY SCATTERED
POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER VERSUS
DAYS PAST WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
FOLLOWING THE FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BEING SHOWN BY THE
GFS...I WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WILL SWING WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTH FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS
LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
COME MONDAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN ADVANCING H5 TROF THAT WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AS THE TROF EJECTS EAST...THE
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME AND WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INHERITED FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT. FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE PERIOD ENDS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SIMILAR TO THE SHORT TERM...THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE
LONG TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EUROPEAN IS TRENDING MORE TO THE GFS
SOLUTION. FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY...AND
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE TO
START OFF THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL ONLY BRING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 47 60 43 62 / 20 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 50 62 45 66 / 40 40 30 10
HARRISON AR 48 60 41 63 / 30 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 49 61 43 65 / 40 30 20 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 61 44 64 / 30 20 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 50 62 46 65 / 40 40 40 10
MOUNT IDA AR 49 61 42 65 / 50 30 20 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 48 60 42 62 / 30 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 46 60 44 61 / 20 20 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 49 61 45 64 / 30 30 30 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 60 42 64 / 50 20 20 10
SEARCY AR 48 60 44 62 / 30 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 48 61 45 63 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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