[top]
000
FXUS65 KPSR 082333
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
425 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH VETERANS DAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES
IS FORECAST FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO VETERANS
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND AND BREEZY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE DESERT
AREAS. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1 OR 2 DEGREES
LOWER COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY...EXCEPT 4 OR 5 DEGREES
COOLER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT MOSTLY FROM THE EAST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH VETERANS DAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH JUST
SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST AT TIMES.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO WARMER MONDAY COMPARED WITH
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REACH A PEAK. THE GREATEST WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. IN FACT...A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES IS FORECAST FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR FOR
TUESDAY...THE 10TH OF NOVEMBER IS 90 DEGREES AND WAS SET IN 1989.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK 2 TO 4 DEGREES VETERANS DAY...BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER. A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO VETERANS DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND AND BREEZY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GENERALLY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE DRY IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A PARTIAL RECOVERY
OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUING
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA MOVES TOWARD ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS...BREEZY WEATHER...AND SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE IN ZONE 133 SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A PARTIAL RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
OUR AREA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
[top]
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 082234
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
335 PM MST SUN NOV 08 2009
.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ARIZONA. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH HGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A S/WV RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL...JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS.
LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE SEEMS SCARCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST RUN TO RUN...AND
MODEL TO MODEL. TIME WILL TELL ON THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
VARIABLE AND UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL SMOKE FROM BURNS
NEAR KGCN MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES LATE
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.................PETERSON
AVIATION...............MAS
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
[top]
000
FXUS65 KTWC 082110
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER AND WINDIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CIRRUS HAS THINNED AS IT HAS MOVED EAST INTO SE AZ.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT PEAKED YET...BUT WILL BE APPROACHING FORECAST
HIGHS AND POSSIBLY REACH THE SAME LEVELS AS SATURDAY. WITH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING ALONG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORD LEVELS
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF TUCSON.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS. HOWEVER A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE MAY KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
WARMER THOSE NIGHTS.
MODELS STILL POINT TO WESTERN US TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AND COULD CONTINUE EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IS
STILL IN QUESTION. WHILE COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...HAVE RAISED
MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THEREAFTER AS TROUGH AXIS PASSES. BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP FIGURES TO BE FRIDAY BUT STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GO WITH MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. 12Z ECMWF IS THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH THE MAIN LOW
HANGING BACK TO OUR SW UNTIL THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
SCENARIO TAPS MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF
A CONSENSUS FROM OTHER MODELS BEFORE FOLLOWING THIS SOLUTION...KD
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TO OCCUR
THROUGH MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SWLY
WINDS STARTING THURSDAY...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME WITH REGARD TO THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW THE
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
FIRE CREWS SHOULD MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...KD
&&
.CLIMATE...HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS TUESDAY.
FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL APT 87 91/1934
AJO 90 89/1980
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 90 90/1956
PICACHO PEAK 90 88/1996
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081738
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH VETERANS DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MIXED WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY
COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THERE WAS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS THIN
AND LETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WAS THICK ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE SUN SOUTH AND EAST OF
GILA BEND TO THE CASA GRANDE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. IF THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS REMAINS MOSTLY THIN...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
FROM MEXICO IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR AREA WITH
WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT DAY. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO RAISE THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR FOR TUESDAY TO THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE OF 90 DEGREES IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE THAT WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR OF 90 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
THE 10TH OF NOVEMBER WAS SET IN 1989. NO SHORT TERM UPDATES PLANNED
THIS MORNING...BUT IF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS LOOKS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN
THIN...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH
BROUGHT SOME THICKER MID AND HI CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA...HAS NOW
MOVED ON TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD COULD BE SEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DRY AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SERN
CA/SRN AZ WITH PWAT VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. PROGS AGREE THAT A RATHER ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
A VERY FLAT DIRTY RIDGE BUILDING OVER AZ TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. DUE
TO THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN AT TIMES...LEADING TO EITHER PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DAY
TO DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMER
DESERTS REACHING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WELL TO THE
EAST AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC
NW/NRN CA COAST. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AND THE CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH SOME THICKNESS COOLING WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL
OFF A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S
FOR THE MOST PART AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS
AND EUROPEAN HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...
AND ARE CALLING FOR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...AND THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE INCREASED WIND
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED AHEAD OF THE TROF...AND GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR...STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND NATURE OF OUR CLIMO
POPS...FELT IT PRUDENT TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST OVER OUR ZONE 24 THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
SINGLE DIGIT POPS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME CLEARING
FROM THE WEST LIKELY BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF NICELY
THURSDAY AND LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER MOST OF OUR
DESERTS...THEN DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK TO BE SATURDAY...AS HIGHS FALL ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLING TRENDS SUPPORTED NICELY BY MOS...GRIDDED MODEL OUTPUT
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUING
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND A SLOW COOLING TREND TO THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE IN ZONE 133 ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 081632
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SUN NOV 08 2009
.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ARIZONA. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NO ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM...OR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY
AND MONDAY...WITH HGHTS RISING SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MINIMAL...JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS.
NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED.
LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE SEEMS SCARCE WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST RUN TO RUN...AND
MODEL TO MODEL. TIME WILL TELL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS BECMG
SW10-15G25KT AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. LOCAL SMOKE FROM
BURNS NEAR KGCN MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES
LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.................PETERSON
AVIATION...............MAS
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KTWC 081607
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
907 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOLER AND WINDIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SWATHS OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE HEADED TOWARD SE AZ. LATEST NAM TIMES THE THICKEST CLOUD
COVER DURING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY...AS PER CURRENT FORECAST...KD
&&
.AVIATION...JUST FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECASTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR. STILL LOOKING
AT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME RELIEF IN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081220 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
520 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH
BROUGHT SOME THICKER MID AND HI CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA...HAS NOW
MOVED ON TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD COULD BE SEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DRY AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SERN
CA/SRN AZ WITH PWAT VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. PROGS AGREE THAT A RATHER ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
A VERY FLAT DIRTY RIDGE BUILDING OVER AZ TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. DUE
TO THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN AT TIMES...LEADING TO EITHER PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DAY
TO DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMER
DESERTS REACHING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WELL TO THE
EAST AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC
NW/NRN CA COAST. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AND THE CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH SOME THICKNESS COOLING WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL
OFF A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S
FOR THE MOST PART AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS
AND EUROPEAN HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...
AND ARE CALLING FOR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...AND THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE INCREASED WIND
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED AHEAD OF THE TROF...AND GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR...STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND NATURE OF OUR CLIMO
POPS...FELT IT PRUDENT TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST OVER OUR ZONE 24 THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
SINGLE DIGIT POPS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME CLEARING
FROM THE WEST LIKELY BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF NICELY
THURSDAY AND LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER MOST OF OUR
DESERTS...THEN DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK TO BE SATURDAY...AS HIGHS FALL ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLING TRENDS SUPPORTED NICELY BY MOS...GRIDDED MODEL OUTPUT
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THRU 09/06Z. LGT
SFC WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SKY HARBOR EXPECTING A WEST BREEZE
BY AROUND 18-20Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND A SLOW COOLING TREND TO THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE IN ZONE 133 ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 081036
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ARIZONA. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE MADE. FORECAST MODELS SHOW WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TODAY...A TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE WEST
COAST. THE RUN OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST...AND
HIGHS SHOULD WARM A DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PERIODS OF HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TURN BREEZY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL BRING A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW GENERATING QPF AMOUNTS
FROM .10 TO .30 FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY..ALTHOUGH AT DIFFERENT
12 HOURS TIME FRAMES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL WARMER THAN THE
EC AND GFS ENSEMBLES. SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE EC AND GFS...AND LOOK TO RANGE FROM 7000 FEET ON THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU TO AROUND 9000 FT IN THE WHITE MTNS THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND FALL ANOTHER 500 TO 1000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WX IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM 18Z SUN-01Z MON...
SFC WINDS SW 10-15KT G 25KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.................DL
AVIATION...............TEC
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KPSR 080945
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH
BROUGHT SOME THICKER MID AND HI CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA...HAS NOW
MOVED ON TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD COULD BE SEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DRY AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SERN
CA/SRN AZ WITH PWAT VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. PROGS AGREE THAT A RATHER ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
A VERY FLAT DIRTY RIDGE BUILDING OVER AZ TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. DUE
TO THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN AT TIMES...LEADING TO EITHER PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DAY
TO DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMER
DESERTS REACHING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WELL TO THE
EAST AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC
NW/NRN CA COAST. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AND THE CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH SOME THICKNESS COOLING WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL
OFF A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S
FOR THE MOST PART AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...THURSDAY THROUG SATURDAY...GFS
AND EUROPEAN HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...
AND ARE CALLING FOR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...AND THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE INCREASED WIND
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED AHEAD OF THE TROF...AND GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR...STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND NATURE OF OUR CLIMO
POPS...FELT IT PRUDENT TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST OVER OUR ZONE 24 THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
SINGLE DIGIT POPS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME CLEARING
FROM THE WEST LIKELY BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF NICELY
THURSDAY AND LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER MOST OF OUR
DESERTS...THEN DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK TO BE SATURDAY...AS HIGHS FALL ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLING TRENDS SUPPORTED NICELY BY MOS...GRIDDED MODEL OUTPUT
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COMPARED WITH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES
HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
DESERT AREAS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
000
FXUS65 KTWC 080927
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
227 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA WILL TAKE THE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH IT AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR. STILL LOOKING
AT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME RELIEF IN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ENTERS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECASTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KTWC 080447
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA WILL TAKE THE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH IT AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A VERY QUIET AND WARM EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS VALLEY LOCALS AS OF 930 PM MST WERE STILL IN
THE 60S. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CIRRUS THINNING OUT
AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. GIVEN CURRENT
TRENDS...WE HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER IN THE INHERITED FORECAST.
WILL MAKE A FEW TWEEKS TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND VIRGA
TO THE AREA YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND
TRACKING EAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING FILLING IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY AND FOLLWING BROAD RIDGING WILL KEEP
THINGS WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESPITE FROM THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERN END
OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT250 CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS WILL OCCUR INTO SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 080320
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ALLOWING A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND A GRADUAL
COOLING TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MX CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM AZ. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM AND FROM A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OVER
NRN MX EASTWARD WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS AZ ON
SUNDAY. A RIDGE IS FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
MON/TUE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE WEST COAST. PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TURN BREEZY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SHOW A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT
THERE SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS BCMG SW10-15G20KT
AFTER 18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.................DB
AVIATION...............DB
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KPSR 080303
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES MAINLY NORTH OF AZ THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC
HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN USUAL RESULTING
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT DRY FORECASTS LOOK OK...NO UPDATES PLANNED.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLY.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE DRY AND VERY WEAK SOUTHERN END OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER MONDAY COMPARED WITH
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REACH A PEAK. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDINESS IN A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GENERALLY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE DRY IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. THUS...IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLAGSTAFF
AND TUCSON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...WE HAVE SINGLE DIGIT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AT
LEAST FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COMPARED WITH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES
HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
DESERT AREAS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ/
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
000
FXUS65 KPSR 072307
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...SOMEWHAT THICKER IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL
AREA AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.
THE DRY AND VERY WEAK SOUTHERN END OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER MONDAY COMPARED WITH
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REACH A PEAK. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDINESS IN A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GENERALLY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE DRY IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. THUS...IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLAGSTAFF
AND TUCSON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...WE HAVE SINGLE DIGIT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AT
LEAST FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COMPARED WITH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES
HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
DESERT AREAS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 072225
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
325 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. FOR THE EXTENDED...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE SAME TUNES...MOVING THE
UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO EASTWARD TODAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY. A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN
THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE PERIODS OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TURN BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS FROM 00Z AND 12Z WANT TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THOUGH #1) IN JUST HOW
COLD THE TROUGH WILL BE...WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS COMING IN
COLDER THAN ITS 00Z RUN...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ECMWF. #2) THE EC IS SHOWING A VERY MUCH
COLDER CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WHILE NEITHER THE 00Z
OR 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS SHOW THIS COLD CLOSED LOW ON FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...IT IS SOMEWHAT REFLECTED IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS SEVERAL
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME FORM OF CLOSE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SOME FORM OF TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK WE ARE
CURRENTLY GOING WITH A COOLING TREND FOR MAX TEMPS...HOWEVER FRIDAYS
MAY NEED TO GO LOWER SHOULD THE EC VERIFY. IN ADDITION MODEL
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND POPS WERE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 01Z/SUN AND THEN
REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z/SUN. LOCAL SMOKE FROM BURNS MAY REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.................JVC
AVIATION...............MAS
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KTWC 072050
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
150 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA WILL TAKE THE THICKER CLOUDS
WITH IT AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. A CONTINUATION OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SONORA
CHIHUAHUA BORDER NEAR THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BROUGHT US A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. WHILE THE CONVECTION WAS HEADED NORTHWEST TOWARD
AZ...AND A FEW CLOUD BUILDUPS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20S...AND
THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WILL KEEP AZ DRY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS NEAR CLOUD
BUILDUPS.
AFTER THE LOW EXITS...EXPECT SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MILD TEMPS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO SE
AZ TUESDAY. MORE LIKELY WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME UPTICK IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ABOARD SE WINDS RATHER THAN ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING.
IN THE LONGER TERM...MODELS POINT TO AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN US DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES LIKELY TO AFFECT SE ARIZONA BUT AN INCREASE IN SWLY FLOW
AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. SOME
COOLING ALSO A GOOD BET AS HEIGHTS DECREASE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE WHITES FOR OROGRAPHIC PRECIP...KD
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TO OCCUR INTO
SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREAFTER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071735
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TODAY. DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LEAD TO A COOLING TREND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF PHOENIX LATE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS WAS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES THAT WERE GENERALLY 5 TO 11
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT MORE
SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVES EAST.
HOWEVER...IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET TEMPERATURES TO THEIR FORECAST
VALUES...BUT EXPECT THE HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THOSE
FORECAST VALUES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LATE THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. NO UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS MOVING INTO NWRN
MEXICO. IT WAS SPREADING MID/HI CLOUDS INTO MAINLY SERN AZ...BUT A
LOOK AT THE RECENT TUS SOUNDING SHOWED MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS AT
AND ABOVE 500MB...WITH THE AIRMASS RATHER DRY BELOW. AT 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER OUR LOWER DESERTS WERE A MIXED BAG RANGING FROM MID
20S TO THE MID 40S. PROGS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL KEEP MOVING EAST
AND AWAY FROM OUR CWA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TODAY
AND MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE DESERTS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO BE QUITE
ZONAL WITH A VERY FLAT AND SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE OVERMUCH...REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY WITH MAX
READINGS REACH NEAR 90 OVER THE WARMEST LOWER DESERTS...UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THE ECMWF IS A BIT DEEPER FRIDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS. PROGS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THIS TRANSITION TO TROFFING FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THIS
SOLUTION. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR
US...WITH WIND AND COOLING TO BE BIGGER FACTORS THAN PRECIPITATION.
LAST FEW MEX MOS RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SINGLE DIGIT POPS THRU DAY
7...FOR THE MOST PART...AND MODEL QPFS FOR SOUTHERN AZ ARE MINIMAL.
GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TROFFING SOLUTION...WILL GO WITH
CLIMO PLUS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
MENTIONED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMPS GRIDS AS WELL...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA BETTER FIT THE
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS. HIGHS
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST
AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RULE SOUTHEAST CALIF TODAY/TONIGHT.
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN 7 KTS...WITH A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE FORECAST AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT AFT 19Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY.
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO ARIZONA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR ZONE 133 WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 071636
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
936 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND. IN THE EXTENDED...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MAY
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER SONORA, MEXICO. THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY BROKEN CLOUD
COVER OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 401 AM...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS
SHOWING THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. BROKEN
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE COVERING
AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH YUMA. AREAS WEST
OF THIS LINE ARE UNDER A DEFORMATION AXIS AND ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE SAME
TUNES...MOVE THE BAJA LOW AND DEFORMATION AXIS EASTWARD
TODAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...A TRANSITORY RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE WEST
COAST. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO REDUCE OPAQUE SKY
COVER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO SHOW MORE MOSTLY SUNNY MOSTLY
CLEAR...AND TO COOL WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND PER RECENT MEX MOS FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE THE RUN OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.
ASIDE FROM THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AZ TODAY...PERIODS
OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TURN
BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS FROM 00Z WANT TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THOUGH #1) IN JUST HOW COLD
THOUGH... WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING WARMER THAN THE EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLES AND #2) THE EC IS SHOWING A VERY MUCH COLDER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. MODEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER AND POPS WERE CUT BY 10 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS SHOW A COOLING TREND...AND FRIDAYS MAY NEED TO GO LOWER SHOULD
THE EC VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WILL DEVELOP AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 01Z/SUN. LOCAL
SMOKE FROM BURNS MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE AT
TIMES LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.................JVC
AVIATION...............MAS
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KTWC 071551
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY THIN AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA CONTINUES TO WRAP MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SRN AZ...WITH THE LOWER THICK DECK COMING IN AROUND 600
MB. 12Z NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
CWFA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO HAVE THIS
ACCOUNTED FOR SO DO NOT BELIEVE ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...KD
&&
.AVIATION...BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL THROUGH 23Z...
THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL 23Z-05Z SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY CLR SKIES BETWEEN 05Z-15Z SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
UPPER LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE STATE. LATEST MODELS TRACK THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE
BY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOWED SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE COULD LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071150 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TODAY. DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LEAD TO A COOLING TREND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS MOVING INTO NWRN
MEXICO. IT WAS SPREADING MID/HI CLOUDS INTO MAINLY SERN AZ...BUT A
LOOK AT THE RECENT TUS SOUNDING SHOWED MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS AT
AND ABOVE 500MB...WITH THE AIRMASS RATHER DRY BELOW. AT 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER OUR LOWER DESERTS WERE A MIXED BAG RANGING FROM MID
20S TO THE MID 40S. PROGS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL KEEP MOVING EAST
AND AWAY FROM OUR CWA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TODAY
AND MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE DESERTS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO BE QUITE
ZONAL WITH A VERY FLAT AND SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE OVERMUCH...REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY WITH MAX
READINGS REACH NEAR 90 OVER THE WARMEST LOWER DESERTS...UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THE ECMWF IS A BIT DEEPER FRIDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS. PROGS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THIS TRANSITION TO TROFFING FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THIS
SOLUTION. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR
US...WITH WIND AND COOLING TO BE BIGGER FACTORS THAN PRECIPATION.
LAST FEW MEX MOS RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SINGLE DIGIT POPS THRU DAY
7...FOR THE MOST PART...AND MODEL QPFS FOR SOUTHERN AZ ARE MINIMAL.
GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TROFFING SOLUTION...WILL GO WITH
CLIMO PLUS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
MENTIONED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMPS GRIDS AS WELL...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA BETTER FIT THE
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS. HIGHS
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST
AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RULE SOUTHEAST CALIF TODAY/TONIGHT.
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN 7 KTS...WITH A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE FORECAST AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT AFT 19Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY.
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO ARIZONA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR ZONE 133 WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 071107
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES BRUSH ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. BROKEN OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE COVERING AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS THROUGH YUMA. AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE ARE UNDER A
DEFORMATION AXIS AND ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE SAME
TUNES...MOVE THE BAJA LOW AND DEFORMATION AXIS EASTWARD
TODAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...A TRANSITORY RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE WEST
COAST. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO REDUCE OPAQUE SKY
COVER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO SHOW MORE MOSTLY SUNNY MOSTLY
CLEAR...AND TO COOL WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND PER RECENT MEX MOS FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE THE RUN OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.
ASIDE FROM THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AZ TODAY...PERIODS
OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TURN
BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS FROM 00Z WANT TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THOUGH #1) IN JUST HOW COLD
THOUGH... WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING WARMER THAN THE EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLES AND #2) THE EC IS SHOWING A VERY MUCH COLDER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. MODEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER AND POPS WERE CUT BY 10 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS SHOW A COOLING TREND...AND FRIDAYS MAY NEED TO GO LOWER SHOULD
THE EC VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WILL DEVELOP AT MOST LOCATIONS FROM 18Z/SAT THROUGH
01Z/SUN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.................DL
AVIATION...............JJ
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 071107
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES BRUSH ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. BROKEN OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE COVERING AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS THROUGH YUMA. AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE ARE UNDER A
DEFORMATION AXIS AND ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE SAME
TUNES...MOVE THE BAJA LOW AND DEFORMATION AXIS EASTWARD
TODAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY...A TRANSITORY RIDGE ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES DOWN THE WEST
COAST. CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO REDUCE OPAQUE SKY
COVER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TO SHOW MORE MOSTLY SUNNY MOSTLY
CLEAR...AND TO COOL WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOW TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND PER RECENT MEX MOS FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE THE RUN OF ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST.
ASIDE FROM THE BROKEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN AZ TODAY...PERIODS
OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TURN
BREEZY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODELS FROM 00Z WANT TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES THOUGH #1) IN JUST HOW COLD
THOUGH... WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BEING WARMER THAN THE EC AND GFS
ENSEMBLES AND #2) THE EC IS SHOWING A VERY MUCH COLDER CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. MODEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER AND POPS WERE CUT BY 10 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD. MAX
TEMPS SHOW A COOLING TREND...AND FRIDAYS MAY NEED TO GO LOWER SHOULD
THE EC VERIFY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WILL DEVELOP AT MOST LOCATIONS FROM 18Z/SAT THROUGH
01Z/SUN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.................DL
AVIATION...............JJ
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070940
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
240 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TODAY. DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LEAD TO A COOLING TREND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS MOVING INTO NWRN
MEXICO. IT WAS SPREADING MID/HI CLOUDS INTO MAINLY SERN AZ...BUT A
LOOK AT THE RECENT TUS SOUNDING SHOWED MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS AT
AND ABOVE 500MB...WITH THE AIRMASS RATHER DRY BELOW. AT 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER OUR LOWER DESERTS WERE A MIXED BAG RANGING FROM MID
20S TO THE MID 40S. PROGS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL KEEP MOVING EAST
AND AWAY FROM OUR CWA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TODAY
AND MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE DESERTS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO BE QUITE
ZONAL WITH A VERY FLAT AND SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE OVERMUCH...REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY WITH MAX
READINGS REACH NEAR 90 OVER THE WARMEST LOWER DESERTS...UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THE ECMWF IS A BIT DEEPER FRIDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS. PROGS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THIS TRANSITION TO TROFFING FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THIS
SOLUTION. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR
US...WITH WIND AND COOLING TO BE BIGGER FACTORS THAN PRECIPATION.
LAST FEW MEX MOS RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SINGLE DIGIT POPS THRU DAY
7...FOR THE MOST PART...AND MODEL QPFS FOR SOUTHERN AZ ARE MINIMAL.
GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TROFFING SOLUTION...WILL GO WITH
CLIMO PLUS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
MENTIONED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMPS GRIDS AS WELL...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA BETTER FIT THE
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS. HIGHS
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST
AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH.
BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 18 THSD MSL...AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE ABOVE TERMINAL AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z SUN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
ZONE 133 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WINDS
AND HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
000
FXUS65 KTWC 070924
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS EARLY TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW
PASSING SOUTH OF THE STATE. LATEST MODELS TRACK THIS LOW FARTHER
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE BY THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOWED SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE COULD LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL THROUGH 23Z...
THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL 23Z-05Z SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY CLR SKIES BETWEEN 05Z-15Z SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KTWC 070415
AFDTWC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO SATURDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BAJA SPUR WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD TONIGHT AND SAT. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM ON SE AZ
WILL BE CONSIDERABLE MID AND MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INTO SAT MORNING. SOME CLEARING FROM WEST-EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE MAINLY ABOVE 500 MB TO
RESULT IN AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SAT AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TO
PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT AND SAT. NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS
TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
FORECAST DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE
15K FT AGL AND SURFACE WINDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL
DECLINE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH THE EXPECTATION WE WILL SHAVE OFF
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO SATURDAY AND HOLD IN THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE OUR COOLEST DAY...SO TO SPEAK...STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER. ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BUMPED UP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ABOUT 1-2 MORE DEGREES...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED ON
THE LOWER DESERTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESSES STILL DO NOT
SUPPORT A RETURN OF THE 90S...A BIT OF GOOD NEWS.
RATHER LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
NEXT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOW THIS TROUGH EVOLVES AND AFFECTS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK IS VARYING WILDLY BETWEEN MODELS AND
FROM RUN TO RUN. 12Z GFS PROGS A 548 DM 500 MB LOW OVER UTAH NEXT
FRIDAY...WITH BASICALLY A BIG WIND EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. 00Z
ECMWF ALSO HAD A STRONG CUTOFF LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS AT ABOUT THE SAME
TIME...BUT 12Z ECMWF CAME IN WITH A MUCH BROADER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MUCH LESS AMPLITUDE. AT THIS POINT...ALL I DID
WAS KNOCK ABOUT 5 DEGREES OFF NEXT FRIDAY`S MAX TEMPS...AND KEPT
SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE WHITES DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. DID TRIM INHERITED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS
MAJORITY OF CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY WIND FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 070333
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES BRUSH ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK CLOSED-LOW CONTINUED A SLOW EASTWARD TREK
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FROM TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD EASTWARD SPREADING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
GRADUAL COOL DOWN ESPECIALLY AFTER THE AXIS OF THE LOW MOVES TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...MILD WEATHER FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SET UP
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER
IMPULSES BRUSHING NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL INCREASE IN DAYTIME WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING FURTHER
AS AIR FROM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. VARIABLE
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOWING THAT A
STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. AS A RESULT...INCREASING WINDS AND EVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
VARIABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.................MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...............MCCOLLUM
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070240
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
740 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDINESS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT APPROACHED THE SAN DIEGO COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT...ABRUPTLY MOVED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL BAJA CA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY...STEERING FAR AWAY FROM AZ. AS A RESULT...VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ... INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY...HOWEVER A SERIES OF OTHER
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN STATES...NORTH OF AZ...WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MORE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO
UPDATES PLANNED. PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLY.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR SENDING THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WAS OFF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 117 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF ARIZONA.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. DRIER AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLOWLY DECREASING HIGH
CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA MOST OF
SATURDAY AND IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED
WITH TODAY.
THE DRY AND VERY WEAK SOUTHERN END OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST OVER OUR AREA
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK SLIGHTLY SUNDAY.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR
AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND LITTLE CHANGE
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDINESS IN A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT LEAST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
ARIZONA WEAKENS AND PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST AS A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
OPEN WAVE TROF PUSHES INLAND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND STARTS TO
SPREAD MOISTURE INTO MAINLY NORTHERN ARIZONA...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROF AXIS. WILL INTRODUCE CLIMO POPS INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY...GIVEN
INCREASING UVVS ALONG WITH THE HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL THEN
RAISE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...WHICH FITS NICELY WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES
FORECASTS. OF COURSE...AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND THICKNESSES FALL
OFF...MAX TEMPS WILL TAPER OFF EACH DAY...LOWERING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE DESERTS BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST
AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH.
BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 18 THSD MSL...AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE ABOVE TERMINAL AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z SUN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
ZONE 133 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WINDS
AND HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
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