000
FXUS65 KTWC 241757 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1055 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL THEN BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER SE AZ THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. BONE-DRY SURFACE REGIME WITH DEWPOINTS VALID
16Z RANGING FROM THE TEENS-LOWER 20S. 24/12Z KTWC SOUNDING DEPICTED
A VERY DRY PROFILE AS WELL...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.20 INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. 24/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ADJACENT
THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
OVER FAR NE KANSAS WITH LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW OVER SE AZ.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BUILD EWD OVER THE AREA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY-THUR ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS. STILL CONTINUED WARM AND DRY FRI AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THEREAFTER...
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE SWRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THERE WERE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 24/00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER/DEEPER/SLOWER
VERSUS THE GFS. AT ANY RATE...THE INHERITED FORECASTS DEPICT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT...AS WELL AS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ERN ZONES SAT NIGHT AND SUN. COOLER SAT
AND MUCH COOLER SUN WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGS OR SO
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE NEXT MON AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EWD AND RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FIRE ZONES 146
AND EASTERN 148...OR AREAS EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LESS
WIND NEXT MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KTWC 241757 AAA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1055 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF MAINLY
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL THEN BRING A COOLING TREND TO THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER SE AZ THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. BONE-DRY SURFACE REGIME WITH DEWPOINTS VALID
16Z RANGING FROM THE TEENS-LOWER 20S. 24/12Z KTWC SOUNDING DEPICTED
A VERY DRY PROFILE AS WELL...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.20 INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. 24/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ADJACENT
THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
OVER FAR NE KANSAS WITH LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW OVER SE AZ.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BUILD EWD OVER THE AREA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY-THUR ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS. STILL CONTINUED WARM AND DRY FRI AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THEREAFTER...
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE SWRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THERE WERE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 24/00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER/DEEPER/SLOWER
VERSUS THE GFS. AT ANY RATE...THE INHERITED FORECASTS DEPICT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT...AS WELL AS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ERN ZONES SAT NIGHT AND SUN. COOLER SAT
AND MUCH COOLER SUN WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGS OR SO
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE NEXT MON AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EWD AND RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FIRE ZONES 146
AND EASTERN 148...OR AREAS EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LESS
WIND NEXT MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 241630
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
930 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...AS A SERIES
OF MAINLY DRY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SURFACE OBS REFLECT MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION...AS DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING. STRONG SFC HIGH HAS SET UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE NEVADA. AS UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD...WE WILL SEE MODEST HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES
WED/THUR...LEADING TO A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO
REFLECT DRIER SFC AIR...AND NUDGED DEWPOINT GRIDS TOWARDS DRIER MET
GUIDANCE FOR LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS TO
OUR SOUTH IN THE FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE
ANY APPRECIABLE AFFECT THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS IT GINNING UP MOISTURE
OVER MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY ADVECTING SOME OF IT INTO SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. HOWEVER...ECMWF TENDS TO OVERDO THE MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY WITH A TROUGH PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COOLING INITIALLY. MODELS AGREE
THAT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL ENABLE A SHORT WAVE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE MUCH MORE INTENSE FEATURE. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY OF THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FOR INSTANCE...THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z...VERY CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE
PRECEDING SHORT WAVE. THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER
EAST...KEEPING MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION IS FASTER AND FURTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO RELATED TO THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS FOLDING OVER SOME.

IN LIGHT OF THE SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE THE ECMWF TENDS TO HAVE IN THE
EXTENDED...TRIED TO REFLECT THAT SOLUTION MORE SO THAN THE GFS. WITH
THE IMPRESSIVE QG FORCING...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ZONE 24
THIS WEEKEND...STARTING SATURDAY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THEN EXPANDING
TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...AT OR ABOVE 4500 FEET...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS...WILL NEED TO EXPAND
POPS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. THE MAIN EFFECT HOWEVER WILL BE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BUT LESS SO OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN EXITING ARIZONA MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY MONDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY
AT THE COOLEST LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS TO THE ABOVE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z WED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEAR KBLH
WHERE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
19Z TUE AND 01Z WED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT
24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR. MANY DESERT
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT
OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH MODEST RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BY THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN DESERTS...WITH PEAK GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL AROUND 15 DEGREES BY SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THE PEAK HIGH
TEMPERATURES THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION DESERT LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE HIGHER MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE COOLING.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ROGERS/AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB/ELLIS

000
FXUS65 KTWC 241610
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON.
QUITE COOL AND DRY NEXT MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER SE AZ THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. BONE-DRY SURFACE REGIME WITH DEWPOINTS VALID
16Z RANGING FROM THE TEENS-LOWER 20S. 24/12Z KTWC SOUNDING DEPICTED
A VERY DRY PROFILE AS WELL...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.20 INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. 24/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ADJACENT
THE WEST COAST AND RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
OVER FAR NE KANSAS WITH LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW OVER SE AZ.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BUILD EWD OVER THE AREA THRU THANKSGIVING DAY
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY-THUR ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS. STILL CONTINUED WARM AND DRY FRI AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EWD
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. THEREAFTER...
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE SWRN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THERE WERE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 24/00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF STRONGER/DEEPER/SLOWER
VERSUS THE GFS. AT ANY RATE...THE INHERITED FORECASTS DEPICT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SAT...AS WELL AS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ERN ZONES SAT NIGHT AND SUN. COOLER SAT
AND MUCH COOLER SUN WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGS OR SO
BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AREAWIDE NEXT MON AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EWD AND RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. A PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO FIRE ZONES 146
AND EASTERN 148...OR AREAS EAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH LESS
WIND NEXT MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

BF

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241604
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
GENERALLY MILD DAYS WITH COLD...CLEAR NIGHTS...THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY THIS COMING
WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&
.DISCUSSION...WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TO
REMOVE LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING. UPPER ELEVATIONS ALREADY HAVE
NORTHEAST WINDS ABOVE 10 MPH. OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /315 AM MST/...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OF COLORADO FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS OF ARIZONA BY SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO ARIZONA...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLATEAUS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING SUNDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES COLDER WITH EACH RUN...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST...LEAVING NORTHERN ARIZONA BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OF COLORADO UNDER THIS FLOW PATTERN. NORTHERN ARIZONA IS
FORECAST TO BE COOL AND DRY...WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................TC/MAS
AVIATION...............KD

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KPSR 241215 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
515 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. IT
WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY BREEZY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES ON THE LOW DESERTS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA...AND EL
CENTRO. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE WINDY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
ARIZONA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HAS
ALREADY TO LEAD TO SOME ATYPICAL NIGHTTIME WINDS AT A NUMBER OF
OBSERVATION POINTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ACCORDINGLY...TEMPS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME. THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS HAVE STAYED
DECOUPLED. THE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR MIXING. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH IN THE FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE.
THIS SHOULD HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE AFFECT THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS IT
GINNING UP MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY ADVECTING SOME OF IT
INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...ECMWF TENDS TO OVERDO THE
MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY WITH A TROUGH PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COOLING INITIALLY. MODELS AGREE
THAT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL ENABLE A SHORT WAVE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE MUCH MORE INTENSE FEATURE. THERE REMAIN
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY OF THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FOR INSTANCE...THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z...VERY CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE
PRECEDING SHORT WAVE. THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER
EAST...KEEPING MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION IS FASTER AND FURTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO RELATED TO THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS FOLDING OVER SOME.

IN LIGHT OF THE SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE THE ECMWF TENDS TO HAVE IN THE
EXTENDED...TRIED TO REFLECT THAT SOLUTION MORE SO THAN THE GFS. WITH
THE IMPRESSIVE QG FORCING...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ZONE 24
THIS WEEKEND...STARTING SATURDAY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THEN EXPANDING
TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...AT OR ABOVE 4500 FEET...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS...WILL NEED TO EXPAND
POPS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. THE MAIN EFFECT HOWEVER WILL BE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BUT LESS SO OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN EXITING ARIZONA MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY MONDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY
AT THE COOLEST LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS TO THE ABOVE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z WED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY NEAR KBLH
WHERE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
19Z TUE AND 01Z WED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS NEXT
24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR. MANY DESERT
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT
OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH MODEST RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BY THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY...STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND THE WESTERN DESERTS...WITH PEAK GUSTS OVER 30KT
EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
FALL AROUND 15 DEGREES BY SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THE PEAK HIGH
TEMPERATURES THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION DESERT LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL BE HIGHER MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE COOLING.

LESS WIND IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB/ELLIS

000
FXUS65 KPSR 241126
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
425 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. IT
WILL ALSO BE LOCALLY BREEZY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES ON THE LOW DESERTS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA...AND EL
CENTRO. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE WINDY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
ARIZONA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HAS
ALREADY TO LEAD TO SOME ATYPICAL NIGHTTIME WINDS AT A NUMBER OF
OBSERVATION POINTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ACCORDINGLY...TEMPS AT
THOSE LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AT
THE SAME TIME. THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS HAVE STAYED
DECOUPLED. THE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR MIXING. MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN...A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH IN THE FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE.
THIS SHOULD HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE AFFECT THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS IT
GINNING UP MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY ADVECTING SOME OF IT
INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. HOWEVER...ECMWF TENDS TO OVERDO THE
MOISTURE.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY WITH A TROUGH PASSING WELL
TO THE NORTH BUT WITH ONLY MINOR COOLING INITIALLY. MODELS AGREE
THAT THE FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY WITH A RIDGE AXIS OFFSHORE AND A
TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WILL ENABLE A SHORT WAVE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE MUCH MORE INTENSE FEATURE. THERE REMAIN
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING...TRACK...AND INTENSITY OF THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. FOR INSTANCE...THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z...VERY CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE
PRECEDING SHORT WAVE. THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER AND FURTHER
EAST...KEEPING MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING A
CLOSED LOW. THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION IS FASTER AND FURTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO RELATED TO THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS FOLDING OVER SOME.

IN LIGHT OF THE SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE THE ECMWF TENDS TO HAVE IN THE
EXTENDED...TRIED TO REFLECT THAT SOLUTION MORE SO THAN THE GFS. WITH
THE IMPRESSIVE QG FORCING...INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ZONE 24
THIS WEEKEND...STARTING SATURDAY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS THEN EXPANDING
TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW...AT OR ABOVE 4500 FEET...BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS...WILL NEED TO EXPAND
POPS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS. THE MAIN EFFECT HOWEVER WILL BE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING FROM WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA BUT LESS SO OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN EXITING ARIZONA MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY MONDAY MORNING WITH FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY
AT THE COOLEST LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT THE ABOVE TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY NEAR KBLH WHERE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z TUE AND 01Z WED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR. MANY
DESERT LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL BELOW 15
PERCENT OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH MODEST RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BY THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
AROUND 15 DEGREES BY SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THE PEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S IN
MOST LOWER ELEVATION DESERT LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER MOSTLY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLING.

IT WILL BE WINDY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 241021
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
GENERALLY MILD DAYS WITH COLD...CLEAR NIGHTS...THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY THIS COMING
WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THANKSGIVING.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OF COLORADO FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS OF ARIZONA BY SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO BRING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER
SOUTHWEST INTO ARIZONA...WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLATEAUS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING SUNDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES COLDER WITH EACH RUN...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE HAVING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 40S IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST...LEAVING NORTHERN ARIZONA BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST WITH A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OF COLORADO UNDER THIS FLOW PATTERN. NORTHERN ARIZONA IS
FORECAST TO BE COOL AND DRY...WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................TC
AVIATION...............DJO

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 240939
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
239 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
ONLY OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DROPS DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTER OF THE NATION AS A RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN
STATES. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO INCREASE A FEW DEGREES
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE
ECMWF BEING WETTER AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT
WITH A LOW/TROUGH IN SOME FORM OR FASHION MOVING INTO ARIZONA. WITH
THAT SAID...I INCREASED POPS A TAD FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THEREAFTER...I SHOW POPS DECREASE AS THE
LOW EXITS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...
GENERALLY ONLY ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGS OF WARMING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR TUCSON. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO OR NEAR ARIZONA HIGHS WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY WITH HIGHS
HOVERING AROUND 60 DEGS IN TUCSON FOR SUNDAY. A WARM UP IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AREA WIDE TODAY...BUT A FEW CIRRUS
LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES READINGS WILL SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...LOOKS LIKE THANKSGIVING 2009 WILL BE DRY AND WARM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE PREVIOUS TWO THANKSGIVINGS HAVE BEEN WET. IN
2008 WIDESPREAD RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA WHILE IN 2007 THERE WERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 240419
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
GENERALLY MILD DAYS WITH COLD...CLEAR NIGHTS...THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS BEHIND THIS AFTERNOONS COLD FRONT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD...BUT WE WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS WE COULD BE FROM THE RIM
NORTHWARD DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN LATER
IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. ALL THESE TRENDS ARE COVERED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................PETERSON
AVIATION...............PETERSON

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 240353
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR AND COOLER AS THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT. MOST SPOTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS IS ON PACE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
TRENDS. HANDLING OF WEAK DIRTY RIDGE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ENERGY
SPLITTING OUT OF THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND ALSO LOOKS GOOD...NO
UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THUS PROVIDING A WARMING TREND INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL
OCCUR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A BIT OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH FROM
CANADA ON TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA BEFORE BECOMING
A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA ON TURKEY DAY. THIS FEATURE
MAY PICK UP SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE RESIDING OVER
SONORA ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD IT NORTH OVER MAINLY COCHISE COUNTY.
SO COULD SEE SOME FLAT CU FIELDS SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY.

COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON
THE IDEA OF A COLD/MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM TO DROP INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN INLAND TRACK
SO MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS GOING BUT
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY ALSO.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO HAMMER OUT THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN READINGS WILL SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...LOOKS LIKE THANKSGIVING 2009 WILL BE DRY AND WARM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE PREVIOUS TWO THANKSGIVINGS HAVE BEEN WET. IN
2008 WIDESPREAD RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA WHILE IN 2007 THERE WERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 240211
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
715 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND
EL CENTRO. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO OUR AREA BY
SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...I.E. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.

HOWEVER...A BIG CHANGE TO COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN
AZ THIS WEEKEND AS EXPLAINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY LOOK OK. NO
UPDATES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES BY THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR AREA...WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ...INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24...SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT THE ABOVE TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY NEAR KBLH WHERE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z TUE AND 01Z WED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR. MANY
DESERT LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL BELOW 15
PERCENT OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH MODEST RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BY THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
AROUND 15 DEGREES BY SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THE PEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S IN
MOST LOWER ELEVATION DESERT LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER MOSTLY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLING.

IT WILL BE WINDY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS

000
FXUS65 KPSR 232317
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND
EL CENTRO. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO OUR AREA BY
SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME TO
A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA AND YUMA...AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES
COOLER IN JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...AND 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE GENERALLY 15 TO 25
MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST IN JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK AND FROM THE
NORTH IN EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING YUMA. WIND WAS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE NORTH
IN IMPERIAL COUNTY AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.

MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES BY THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL BRING
SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA
TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME BREEZINESS
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA
BY WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK SOMEWHAT
FRIDAY...AND MORE SO SATURDAY. THEN...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY.

IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS AS IF
IT WILL BE DRY FOR OUR AREA WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO STAY
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MAY GET CLOSE TO THE
EAST PORTION OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL THIN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...AT OR ABOVE 20
THOUSAND FEET ASL...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR AT ALL AIRFIELDS AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT KBLH ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR. MANY
DESERT LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL BELOW 15
PERCENT OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH MODEST RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BY THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
AROUND 15 DEGREES BY SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THE PEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S IN
MOST LOWER ELEVATION DESERT LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER MOSTLY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLING.

IT WILL BE WINDY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 232203
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
303 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...COLD
NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...CHILLY NIGHTS...AND PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE THIS COMING
WEEKEND...AND WE HAVE DROPPED AFTERNOON TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE AND
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................KD
AVIATION...............MCCOLLUM

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 232130
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY. THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A SMIDGE COOLER THAN SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES UNDER A CLEAR SKY WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT A BIT COOLER
THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THUS PROVIDING A WARMING TREND INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...A BIT OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA BEFORE BECOMING A WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA ON TURKEY DAY. THIS FEATURE MAY PICK
UP SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE RESIDING OVER SONORA ON
THURSDAY AND SPREAD IT NORTH OVER MAINLY COCHISE COUNTY. SO COULD
SEE SOME FLAT CU FIELDS SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY.

COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON
THE IDEA OF A COLD/MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM TO DROP INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN INLAND TRACK
SO MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS GOING BUT
HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY ALSO.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO HAMMER OUT THE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN READINGS WILL SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...LOOKS LIKE THANKSGIVING 2009 WILL BE DRY AND WARM ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE PREVIOUS TWO THANKSGIVINGS HAVE BEEN WET. IN
2008 WIDESPREAD RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA WHILE IN 2007 THERE WERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 231758
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1055 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND
EL CENTRO. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO OUR
AREA BY SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE SAME
LATE THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY...EXCEPT 1
TO 2 DEGREES LOWER IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING
THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA...AND 4 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER IN EASTERN
RIVERSIDE COUNTY. IT WAS ALSO UP TO 6 DEGREES COOLER IN JOSHUA TREE
NATIONAL PARK. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT...EXCEPT FROM THE
NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH DOWN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
10 TO 20 MPH IN JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK...AND 5 TO 15 MPH IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ELSEWHERE.

MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA
AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
BY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL BRING
SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH HAS ALREADY
INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST TO THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.

A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK SOMEWHAT FRIDAY...AND MORE SO
SATURDAY. THEN...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH
COOLER WEATHER TO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE DRY FOR OUR AREA WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL THIN HI CIRRUS...AOA 20K FEET...SKIES TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS ALL AIRFIELDS. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND DIURNAL...EXCEPT DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH WILL TIGHTEN
GRADIENT DOWN THE RIVER...AND CAUSE BREEZY NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP AT
KBLH AFTER ABOUT 18Z. EXPECT OCNL GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KT STARTING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TAPERING OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE NO AVIATION CONCERNS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER THE DESERTS. MANY
LOCALES WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
MODEST RECOVERY AT NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL AROUND 15 DEGREES OVER THIS TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS.
THIS WILL BE RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...PARTLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALSO
COOLING TEMPERATURES. BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER IS LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231659
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
959 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...COLD
NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...CHILLY NIGHTS...AND PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE THIS COMING
WEEKEND...AND WE WILL BEGIN TO DROP AFTERNOON TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE
AND INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................KD
AVIATION...............MCCOLLUM

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 231617
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
UNDER LOTS OF SUNSHINE. WILL SEE SOME THIN WISPS OF CIRRUS FLOAT BY
IN THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESS VALUES
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS BEING AT OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY...WHEN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE WEEK WILL OCCUR...THEN THE POTENTIAL TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION ONCE THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL
PACKAGE IS IN AND HAS BEEN DIGESTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 231242 AAA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
540 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY
THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON THE LOW
DESERTS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA...AND EL CENTRO. A LARGE COOLING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES...THE SOUTHERN END OF WHICH IS BRUSHING ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE NOTICEABLE WINDS...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE PACIFIC LEADING
TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO PEAK ON
THURSDAY. A STRONG NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY ORIENTED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH MOVES IN. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH IT THAN
THE ECMWF. WITH TIME...THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFYING LEADING TO A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HOWEVER THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF AMPLIFICATION AND A DIGGING
TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THAN MOST
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THOUGH ECMWF HAS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IT MAKES UP FOR IT BY RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST 6 RUNS NOW BUT IT HAS HAD RUN
TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE EVOLUTION/TRACK. SO THE GFS IS NOW
COMING AROUND TO A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE ECMWF.

THE SHORT OF ALL OF THIS IS MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND. CONSERVATIVELY...THE MAX TEMPS
OVER THE LOW DESERTS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AFTER PEAKING
NEAR 80 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED
MONDAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS WHILE OUR WESTERN AREAS
ACTUALLY START TO WARM UP. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY...THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF
INTRODUCING ANY MENTION OF PRECIP...BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUTSIDE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL THIN HI CIRRUS...AOA 20K FEET...SKIES TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR NEXT 24 HOURS ALL AIRFIELDS. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS
WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND DIURNAL...EXCEPT DOWN THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY TODAY. SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH WILL TIGHTEN
GRADIENT DOWN THE RIVER...AND CAUSE BREEZY NORTH WINDS TO DEVELOP AT
KBLH AFTER ABOUT 18Z. EXPECT OCNL GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KT STARTING
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TAPERING OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE NO AVIATION CONCERNS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL
AIRFIELDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EACH DAY...AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER THE DESERTS. MANY
LOCALES WILL SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH
MODEST RECOVERY AT NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SETTLING IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL AROUND 15 DEGREES OVER THIS TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY EXPECTED IN THE MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE LOWER DESERTS.
THIS WILL BE RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...PARTLY DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALSO
COOLING TEMPERATURES. BREEZY OR LOCALLY WINDY WEATHER IS LIKELY OVER
THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB

000
FXUS65 KPSR 231023 CCA
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
315 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY
THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON THE LOW
DESERTS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA...AND EL CENTRO. A LARGE COOLING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES...THE SOUTHERN END OF WHICH IS BRUSHING ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE NOTICEABLE WINDS...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE PACIFIC LEADING
TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO PEAK ON
THURSDAY. A STRONG NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY ORIENTED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH MOVES IN. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH IT THAN
THE ECMWF. WITH TIME...THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFYING LEADING TO A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HOWEVER THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF AMPLIFICATION AND A DIGGING
TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THAN MOST
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THOUGH ECMWF HAS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IT MAKES UP FOR IT BY RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST 6 RUNS NOW BUT IT HAS HAD RUN
TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE EVOLUTION/TRACK. SO THE GFS IS NOW
COMING AROUND TO A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE ECMWF.

THE SHORT OF ALL OF THIS IS MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND. CONSERVATIVELY...THE MAX TEMPS
OVER THE LOW DESERTS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AFTER PEAKING
NEAR 80 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED
MONDAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS WHILE OUR WESTERN AREAS
ACTUALLY START TO WARM UP. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
STRONGER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY...THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF
INTRODUCING ANY MENTION OF PRECIP...BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUTSIDE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE
ABOVE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TUE.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
WINDS WILL FAVOR DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE
WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS
REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT
AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND. AS USUAL...FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS/AJ

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 231018
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...COLD
NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH COLD
NIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
ZERO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXTENDED FORECAST...FROM SATURDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AND MERIDIONAL. THIS
CHANGE IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN COULD HERALD A CHANGE IN OUR CURRENT
DRY SPELL AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO PIN DOWN THESE POSSIBLE CHANGES
TO OUR WEATHER.

ANY CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE WELCOME AS THE CURRENT
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND MELTED SNOWFALL) TOTALS FOR FLAGSTAFF
FROM JANUARY THROUGH NOVEMBER OF 2009 STAND AT 8.56 INCHES...WHICH
IS APPROXIMATELY 12 INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS OF
NOVEMBER 23RD 2009...FLAGSTAFF IS FIRMLY IN SECOND PLACE FOR THE ALL
TIME LOWEST ANNUAL PRECIPITATION OVER A 111 YEAR RECORD PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS
OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................BOHLIN
AVIATION...............ONTON

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KPSR 231017
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
315 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THIS WEEK LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY
THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON THE LOW
DESERTS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA...AND EL CENTRO. A LARGE COOLING
TREND...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...IS ANTICIPATED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN STATES...THE SOUTHERN END OF WHICH IS BRUSHING ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR
WEATHER EXCEPT FOR SOME MORE NOTICEABLE WINDS...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE PACIFIC LEADING
TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO PEAK ON
THURSDAY. A STRONG NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY ORIENTED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH MOVES IN. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH IT THAN
THE ECMWF. WITH TIME...THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE FLOW PATTERN
AMPLIFYING LEADING TO A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE OPERATIONAL
CANADIAN SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HOWEVER THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF AMPLIFICATION AND A DIGGING
TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGHING OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THAN MOST
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THOUGH ECMWF HAS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF A
DIGGING TROUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA IT MAKES UP FOR IT BY RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA ON
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER
ARIZONA FOR THIS WEEKEND FOR AT LEAST 6 RUNS NOW BUT IT HAS HAD RUN
TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE EVOLUTION/TRACK. SO THE GFS IS NOW
COMING AROUND TO A SOLUTION MORE LIKE THE ECMWF.

THE SHORT OF ALL OF THIS IS MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND. CONSERVATIVELY...THE MAX TEMPS
OVER THE LOW DESERTS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...AFTER PEAKING
NEAR 80 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED
MONDAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS WHILE OUR WESTERN AREAS
ACTUALLY START TO WARM UP. GIVEN THE OVERLAND TRAJECTORY...THE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED AND THUS HAVE HELD OFF
INTRODUCING ANY MENTION OF PRECIP...BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OUTSIDE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE
ABOVE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TUE.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
WINDS WILL FAVOR DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE
WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS
REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT
AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND. AS USUAL...FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS/AJ

000
FXUS65 KTWC 230855
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
155 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTH AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH THE ONLY AFFECT THIS FAR SOUTH BEING
A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT EXTENDS GENERALLY EAST TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE TODAY. DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID
WEEK. A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WITH A WEAK LOW UNDER CUTTING THE HIGH.

WE SHOULD ONLY WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY
OR EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW ONLY
EXPECTING A DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...A
DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MODELS SHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL. NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230402
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...COLD
NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 245 PM MST...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS...CHILLY NIGHTS...AND PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED. A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS TONIGHT...BUT SIGNIFICANT APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT FEEL A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN
WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO SEASONAL NORMALS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................PETERSON/KD
AVIATION...............PETERSON

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.

000
FXUS65 KTWC 230355
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW AS ANOTHER IMPULSE CARVES THROUGH
THE BASIN NORTH OF US TONIGHT. COOLISH AIR BEHIND IT MAY SEE A
COUPLE OF COOLER MORNINGS TO START THE WEEK...THE 00Z NAM MOS CAME
IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT ANY RATE. OTHERWISE A WEAK AND DIRTY
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE AS
OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ANOTHER GORGEOUS CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UNDER ABUNDANT WARM SUNSHINE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
RUNNING ABOUT 1-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEY STILL
WERE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER THIRD OF NOVEMBER.

REALLY NO CHANGE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MINOR THICKNESS FALLS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-BUILDING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING WARMER HIGHS EACH DAY.

NEXT STRONG GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN
RIDGE OVERHEAD. SO A BIT OF COOLING ON FRIDAY WITH MORE ON SATURDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STILL BIG
QUESTION AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DAY 7 SUNDAY...WITH
RESPECTS TO THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GFS/CANADIAN
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THE EUROPEAN /ECMWF/ MODEL IS CURRENTLY THE
EXTREME OUTLIER BY DROPPING ENERGY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
MUCH MUCH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED MIDSHIFT IDEA OF A
MODEST COOL DOWN AND ALSO KEPT TOKEN 5% OR LESS POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY MORNING. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KPSR 230216
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
715 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...
YUMA AND EL CENTRO. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING BACK
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /SOUTHEAST
CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ / THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...CULMINATING IN
STRONG BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THANKSGIVING DAY. AN UPWARD
SPIKE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

CURRENT FORECASTS OF DRY UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THIS WEEK LOOKS
OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS IN THIS FLOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST
TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN
FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THAT FORECAST
SHOWS TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ALSO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AS USUAL...THE
FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE
ABOVE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z TUE.


AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
WINDS WILL FAVOR DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE
WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS
REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT
AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND. AS USUAL...FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS/AJ

000
FXUS65 KPSR 222301
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
350 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...
YUMA AND EL CENTRO. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DROPPING BACK
SOMEWHAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
BREEZINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
WERE 1 OR 2 DEGREES LOWER IN MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR
LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY.
A RELATIVELY SMALL AMOUNT OF HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS IN THIS FLOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA
AND BRING SOME BREEZINESS AT TIMES FROM THE NORTH AND EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING. IN FACT...BREEZINESS FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY FROM JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK EAST
TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THERE ARE STILL CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...AND
IN COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN
FLAGSTAFF AND TUCSON...HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THAT FORECAST
SHOWS TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ALSO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AS USUAL...THE
FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SOME INCREASE IN WIND FROM THE NORTH TO ABOVE 10 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED AT KBLH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ABOVE 6 KNOTS AT KPHX AND KIWA BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY.
SOME HIGH CIRRIFORM CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...OTHERWISE
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY.
WINDS WILL FAVOR DIRECTIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY...LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES AT THE RIDGETOPS...WITH
LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY. THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS AS TO WHAT THE
WEATHER WILL DO AFTER FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS
REFLECT CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK SOMEWHAT
AND SOME INCREASE IN WIND. AS USUAL...FORECASTS WILL BE ADJUSTED AS
WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
INCREASES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS/AJ

000
FXUS65 KTWC 222151
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA
AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. THUS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER GORGEOUS CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA UNDER ABUNDANT WARM SUNSHINE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
LAST NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RUNNING ABOUT
1-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEY STILL WERE ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE LATTER THIRD OF NOVEMBER.

REALLY NO CHANGE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. MINOR THICKNESS FALLS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS BEING A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY. WILL SEE PERIODS OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RE-BUILDING
OVER THE AREA RESULTING WARMER HIGHS EACH DAY.

NEXT STRONG GULF OF ALASKA SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL START TO KNOCK DOWN
RIDGE OVERHEAD. SO A BIT OF COOLING ON FRIDAY WITH MORE ON SATURDAY
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STILL BIG
QUESTION AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DAY 7 SUNDAY...WITH
REPSECTS TO THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GFS/CANADIAN
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN THEIR PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THE EUROPEAN /ECMWF/ MODEL IS CURRENTLY THE
EXTREME OUTLIER BY DROPPING ENERGY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
MUCH MUCH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME CONTINUED MIDSHIFT IDEA OF A
MODEST COOL DOWN AND ALSO KEPT TOKEN 5% OR LESS POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS MAINLY ABOVE 20K FT AGL THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY MORNING. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

000
FXUS65 KFGZ 222145
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MILD DAYS...COLD
NIGHTS...AND OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THANKSGIVING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN ARIZONA
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS...CHILLY NIGHTS...AND PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRUSH NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT...BUT SIGNIFICANT APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO
OUR WEATHER ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT FEEL A CONTINUED
DRY PATTERN WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO SEASONAL NORMALS IS THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................KD
AVIATION...............TC

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.