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000
FXUS65 KPSR 090235
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
735 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH VETERANS DAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES
IS FORECAST FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO VETERANS
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND AND BREEZY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE DESERT
AREAS. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN STATES WELL NORTH OF AZ IN THE COMING DAYS. AT OUR
LATITUDE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REPLETE WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL
REMAIN UNUSUALLY HIGH...PROVIDING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IN PHOENIX
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
CURRENT DRY AND WARM FORECASTS LOOK OK. NO UPDATES PLANNED. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH VETERANS DAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH JUST
SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST AT TIMES.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO WARMER MONDAY COMPARED WITH
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REACH A PEAK. THE GREATEST WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. IN FACT...A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES IS FORECAST FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR FOR
TUESDAY...THE 10TH OF NOVEMBER IS 90 DEGREES AND WAS SET IN 1989.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK 2 TO 4 DEGREES VETERANS DAY...BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER. A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO VETERANS DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND AND BREEZY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GENERALLY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE DRY IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A PARTIAL RECOVERY
OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUING
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA MOVES TOWARD ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS...BREEZY WEATHER...AND SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE IN ZONE 133 SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A PARTIAL RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
OUR AREA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 090012
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...A
MASS OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD
BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S...WE WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THE SATELLITE SHOWS
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG JETSTREAM REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG
40N. A WEAK WAVE SPREADS SHOWERS ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE
LASSEN PARK AREA AND SHASTA COUNTY MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...BUT IN
GENERAL THE EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL JUST BE SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM THEN DROPS DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW...SPLITTING IT BY TUESDAY. THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO A MODEST
1.25 INCH PRECIPITATE WATER PLUME AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN
PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. SNOW LEVELS BELOW 6000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE...MEANING
THIS STORM COULD IMPACT TRAVEL IN THE SIERRA. WE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM TO ALERT THE PUBLIC. SG
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUS STORMS THIS
YEAR...AND EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL FROM ABOVE PASS LEVEL ON
WEDNESDAY TO BETWEEN 3500 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 4500 FEET IN THE SIERRA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE SIERRA...AS THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE THE FIRST DECENT SNOW PRODUCER FOR THE SIERRA THIS SEASON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MORE WINTER LIKE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE VALLEY STRUGGLING TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY AND BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...EXTENDED MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EITHER SOMETIME SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...BUT VARY ON
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AND TIMES.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
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000
FXUS66 KMTR 082346
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
345 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:34 PM PST SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT HAVE WARMED NICELY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S AND 70S. A FEW NEAR-COASTAL SITES
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS THE
STATE REMAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE DISTRICT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS ONE TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH
RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS
HAS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY IN THE
FOLLOWING WEEK...BUT THEN BRINGS DECENT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS WAY BEYOND OUR CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 PM PST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS. NO MARINE INVERSION PRESENT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT DRAGS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BUT ANY
PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE AND ONLY AFFECT KSTS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT....SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS TIL 9 PM
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY TIL 9 PM
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR TIL 9 PM
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
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000
FXUS66 KLOX 082345 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
345 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CALIFORNIA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
COOLING...MORE CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...VERY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND WITH
A MIX OF WEAK GRADIENTS. NEARLY ALL STATIONS REPORTING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS TODAY OVER YESTERDAY AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY CLIMB AND THE
AIRMASS WARMS UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN TO
MAINLY LA COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOWERING MARINE INVERSION TONIGHT.
THE NEXT TWO DAYS SHOULD EACH SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING AS
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE NOTICEABLY DRIER VS. YESTERDAY AND THUS I EXPECT SOME
CHILLY MIN TEMPS AGAIN MONDAY BUT NOTHING OF A FROST THREAT. HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE 40-60 DM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WEAK NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PERSIST. EXPECT LESS FOG TONIGHT AND LIMITED TO LA COASTAL
AREAS WITH POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN DENSE CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. 12Z
MODELS BRING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO PUSH
INTO REGION DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN OUR COOLING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...18Z MODELS CONTINUED STORY FROM THE 12Z RUN
PUSHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING IS STILL THE QUESTION WITH THE
CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ON THE FAST TRACK. GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
REFLECT THIS TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ALONG THE
WEST COAST BY 18Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED VERY SMALL POPS
AND QPF FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THUS ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS TO REFLECT THIS
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AND EXPECT MORE CLOUDS
AND ONSHORE FLOW.
BEYOND FRIDAY MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUFFERS
AS SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD. HAVE LEFT THESE PERIODS ALONE
AND/OR STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MORE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL
TO MODEL CONSISTENCY OCCURS.
&&
.AVIATION...08/2340Z...THE MARINE LAYER WAS NEAR 1200 FEET DEEP.
GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE FOR CURRENT TAFS AT KPRB...KSBP...
KSMX...KBUR...KVNY...KWJF AND KPMD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAFS DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUD AND IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND/OR THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE LOW
CLOUDS. THERE IS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KSBA
AND KOXR LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING. FOR KLGB AND KLAX...THE
PROBABILITY OF HAVING LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING IS RATHER
HIGH BUT THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THE IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 07Z. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
CLEAR OFF THE COAST BY 18Z MON.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 07Z BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE LOW
CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 05Z AND A 15 PERCENT CHANCE LOW
CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AS LATE AS 09Z. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OFF THE COAST BY 18Z MON.
KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MON.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TRM
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...TRM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 082333
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
425 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH VETERANS DAY. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES
IS FORECAST FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO VETERANS
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND AND BREEZY WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE DESERT
AREAS. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SUNNY SKIES COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 1 OR 2 DEGREES
LOWER COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY...EXCEPT 4 OR 5 DEGREES
COOLER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK. WIND WAS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT MOSTLY FROM THE EAST IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
WEST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH VETERANS DAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH JUST
SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST AT TIMES.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO WARMER MONDAY COMPARED WITH
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REACH A PEAK. THE GREATEST WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. IN FACT...A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES IS FORECAST FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR TUESDAY.
THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR FOR
TUESDAY...THE 10TH OF NOVEMBER IS 90 DEGREES AND WAS SET IN 1989.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP BACK 2 TO 4 DEGREES VETERANS DAY...BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER. A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO VETERANS DAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND AND BREEZY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GENERALLY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE DRY IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A PARTIAL RECOVERY
OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUING
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA MOVES TOWARD ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS...BREEZY WEATHER...AND SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE IN ZONE 133 SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY/TONTO NATIONAL FOREST FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A PARTIAL RECOVERY OF TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
OUR AREA.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
[top]
000
FXUS65 KREV 082314
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
314 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PUSH A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THEN DROP TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE
A FRONT SHOULD PASS INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVE SOUTH
OF I-80 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTLY PLACING THE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT THAT
COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN AREAS. ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD
BE LIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MIXING OUT THE LOWER VALLEYS AND
BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF OF
ALASKA LOW DROPS SOUTH. FRONT SHOULD REACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS AND
STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENTS. WINDS LIKELY TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SOUTH OF I-80 WITH GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE POSSIBLE. PRECIP MAY
BE FALLING ON THE WEST SLOPES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
HELP ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE POTENTIAL. MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A STRONG
MOUNTAIN WAVE...SO A HIGH WIND EVENT SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW
STRONG LIFT TO GO ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN/SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE SIERRA. STRENGTH OF LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE
FRONT SUPPORTS PRECIP TO PUSHING OVER THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN
NEVADA. DID INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SIERRA AND HIGH CHANCE
FOR WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SNOW LEVELS START NEAR 7000-8000 FEET...AND
DROP TO NEAR 6000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT SNOW LEVELS SHOULD EASILY DROP TO 5000 FEET OR LESS. MODEL
QPF IS NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT DUE TO DIFFERING SPEED AND TRACK OF
THE FRONT SO ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE MOST UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. BRONG
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS IS INCREASING AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE TROUGH MOVING TO
THE WEST COAST WED-THU. ENSEMBLE SPREAD RELATIVELY SMALL
THURSDAY...BEGINNING TO DIVERGE ON FRIDAY. PRETTY FAVORABLE
JET STREAM WILL WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE WED-THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THE FRONT ON THE DRY SIDE THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS HAVE INCREASED MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY. INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH END CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO COME DOWN TO
VALLEY FLOORS BY THURSDAY WITH -10C TO -12C AT 700MB.
ALSO...LOWERED TEMPERATURES THU-FRI EVEN WITH THE TROUGH AND COLD
POOL OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPS ON THU-FRI LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR
THE DESERT VALLEYS AND UPPER 30S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS.
PAST FRIDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE JET STREAM. EURO IS
TRYING TO BUILD RIDGING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS INDICATES
ANOTHER WAVE COMING INTO NORTHERN CA/OR. FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCE...SO
WILL LEAVE POPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO SAT-SUN. TEMPS SHOULD
BOUNCE BACK SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING
FLAT OVER THE WEST...THEY WON`T BE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK MUCH.
KEPT MUCH OF THE FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...AS THIS SEEMS TO
BE THE BEST PERFORMER AS OF LATE. HOON
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR. MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW FREEZING GROUND FOG NEAR KTRK AND A
FEW OTHER SIERRA VALLEYS TONIGHT...BUT UNLIKELY. DEW POINTS HAVE
LOWERED TO ZERO F...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR FOG FORMATION. HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 082251
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CALIFORNIA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
COOLING...MORE CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...VERY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND WITH
A MIX OF WEAK GRADIENTS. NEARLY ALL STATIONS REPORTING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS TODAY OVER YESTERDAY AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY CLIMB AND THE
AIRMASS WARMS UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. MARINE LAYER SHOULD RETURN TO
MAINLY LA COASTAL AREAS WITH A LOWERING MARINE INVERSION TONIGHT.
THE NEXT TWO DAYS SHOULD EACH SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING AS
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE NOTICEABLY DRIER VS. YESTERDAY AND THUS I EXPECT SOME
CHILLY MIN TEMPS AGAIN MONDAY BUT NOTHING OF A FROST THREAT. HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE 40-60 DM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WEAK NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE
GRADIENTS PERSIST. EXPECT LESS FOG TONIGHT AND LIMITED TO LA COASTAL
AREAS WITH POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN DENSE CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. 12Z
MODELS BRING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NORTHERN CWA BORDER BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO PUSH
INTO REGION DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS STRONGER ONSHORE GRADIENTS
WHICH SHOULD BEGIN OUR COOLING TREND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...18Z MODELS CONTINUED STORY FROM THE 12Z RUN
PUSHING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING IS STILL THE QUESTION WITH THE
CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ON THE FAST TRACK. GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
REFLECT THIS TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ALONG THE
WEST COAST BY 18Z THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED VERY SMALL POPS
AND QPF FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD.
COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THUS ADJUSTED SNOW LEVELS TO REFLECT THIS
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE DOWN AND EXPECT MORE CLOUDS
AND ONSHORE FLOW.
BEYOND FRIDAY MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUFFERS
AS SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD. HAVE LEFT THESE PERIODS ALONE
AND/OR STAYED CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MORE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL
TO MODEL CONSISTENCY OCCURS.
&&
.AVIATION...08/1800Z.
MARINE LAYER AROUND 1200 TODAY...WITH MARINE LAYER STILL CLINGING TO
THE SBA...VTU...AND LA COUNTY COASTLINES. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY 19Z...POSSIBLY A HALF HOUR OR SO
LATER. GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MARINE LAYER REFORMING TONIGHT OVER LA
COUNTY...LIKELY UNDER 1000 FEET THOUGH. LESS CONFIDENT AT KOXR AND
KSBA...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY THOSE SITES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...AS WELL
AS THE VALLEYS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY 19Z. EXPECT
IFR CONDS TO REFORM AROUND 08Z +/- 1 HOUR...WITH LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF. IFR VSBYS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 19Z. GOOD CHANCE OF NO CIGS TONIGHT...BUT MVFR HZ
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TRM
MARINE...30
AVIATION...MEIER
SYNOPSIS...TRM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
[top]
000
FXUS66 KEKA 082238
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
238 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AFTER A SHORT BREAK...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
RAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY,
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THESE CLOUDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECASTED CONTINUE TO BE
ABOUT 0.75 INCHES OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY, 0.25-0.50 INCHES OVER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AND LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES OVER TRINITY AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICK TUESDAY
MORNING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A NICE DAY. THIS WON`T LAST LONG
BECAUSE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN TO
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BE COLDER,
CAUSING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP AFTER THE THREAT OF RAIN COMES TO AN END. STROZ
.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH SUN...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE PAC NW FRI SO UNDERCUT
CLIMO/GUIDANCE POPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
THIS WEEKEND BUT AGREE IN A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GIVEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN MODEL
OUTPUT...TRENDED TOWARDS CLIMO POPS WITH COOLER TEMPS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. BC
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH
AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MVFR CONDITIONS IN
-RA EXPECTED ALONG THE ORCA BORDER MON MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND INLAND THROUGH
MON AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. BC
&&
.MARINE...NW SWELL GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO HIGH END SCA
BY MON MORNING WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY
THE AFTERNOON. A LOW END GALE IS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AT THIS POINT SO ELECTED NOT TO HOIST A WATCH ATTM. BC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.
SCA FOR WINDS FOR PZZ450-470-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 082234
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
234 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:34 PM PST SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE DISTRICT HAVE WARMED NICELY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S AND 70S. A FEW NEAR-COASTAL SITES
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S. MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS THE
STATE REMAINS UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE DISTRICT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS ONE TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH
RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS
HAS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY IN THE
FOLLOWING WEEK...BUT THEN BRINGS DECENT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS WAY BEYOND OUR CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...
HOWEVER.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEVADA AND EASTERN OREGON WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS
AROUND 15 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT....SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
[top]
000
FXUS66 KHNX 082216
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
216 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...VARIABLE CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY BUT
REMAINING DRY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO PROVIDE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE DISTRICT AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS. AS THE CLOUD COVER FROM ONE PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE ZONAL FLOW PUSHES EAST OF THE DISTRICT...MORE CLOUDS
APPROACH THE AREA FROM ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY. YET...WILL NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP FROM THESE CLOUDS AS ITS TRAJECTORY MAY BE TOO
FAR NORTH...MOVE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...TO INFLUENCE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. WHILE SKIES MAY NOT BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BOTH HAVE BEEN RUNNING DOWN FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS ALONG WITH THESE LOWER CONDITIONS
MAY ALLOW FOR A COOLER NIGHT AS MORE LOCATIONS REACH THE UPPER 30S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PATTERN MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE RIDGE WILL PLACE THE DISTRICT UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROF SYSTEM DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODEL CONTINUE TO PROG THE TROF
ENTERING NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE DISTRICT
CLOSER TO THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE TIMING IS CURRENTLY SET FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ENSEMBLES DO SHOW SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTY. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND A CHANCE
NEAR YOSEMITE. BY FRIDAY...MODELS PLACE THE DISTRICT AN AREA OF
NVA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL. THE MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW OF THE MERIDIONAL PATTERN WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR INTO THE
DISTRICT FOR CONDITIONS BECOMING BELOW NORMAL. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AT ALMOST 10 DEG-F BELOW NORMAL BEFORE
TEMPERATURE BEGIN RECOVERING BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY NEXT SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS
ON DEVELOPING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEFORE INTRODUCING A FLAT RIDGE
BY SUNDAY. AFTER THE MID WEEK STORM...WILL KEEP FRIDAY...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
[top]
000
FXUS66 KSGX 082139
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND COASTAL CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER WITH SOME WIND AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL
BRING A MODEST WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
BOTH THE LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEARED OUT FULLY TODAY. THE FLAT ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE UP TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP TONIGHT. THAT WILL MEAN
LESS EXTENSIVE COASTAL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND EACH NIGHT AND MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GO UP ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY
INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE PACIFIC AND MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PAST
MODEL RUNS HAD SUCH LIMITED MOISTURE THAT RAIN WAS NOT CONSIDERED
MUCH...BUT RECENT RUNS SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW LESS OF IT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO
FOR NOW WE WILL NOT BITE ON INCLUDING CHANCES OF RAIN YET. DECENT
WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAPPEN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO FINALLY MOVE OUT
SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND IS REALLY A PUZZLE BECAUSE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
CONSISTENCY ARE VERY POOR. SOME HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD...BUT
OTHER SOLUTIONS LIKE A CUTOFF LOW HANGING AROUND CLOUD THE PICTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
082000Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH LOWERED TO AROUND 1500 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF
STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST AROUND
SUNSET AND SPREAD INLAND DURING THE EVENING. COASTAL AIRPORTS SHOULD
GET CEILINGS ANYTIME BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z. BREAK UP ON MONDAY SHOULD
BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.
ABOVE THE MARINE STRATUS LAYER...EXPECT SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE
FL250 WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HORTON
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION...HORTON
000
FXUS66 KLOX 081801 CCA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CALIFORNIA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
COOLING...MORE CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. VERY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHLAND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PRODUCING CANYON WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE LOW 30S THROUGH WIND-FAVORED LOCATIONS OF LA AND
VENTURA COUNTY. HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE 60 DM OR SO OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST. EXPECT LESS FOG TONIGHT AND
LIMITED TO LA COASTAL AREAS WITH POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN DENSE CONDITIONS. NO FORECAST UPDATES THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12Z MODELS ARE ALL NOW LATCHING ON TO A
STRONGER TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH CA DURING THE LATE WED-THU TIME
PERIOD. MODELS NOW ALL DEPICTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LA COUNTY. ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH COLD AIR ON FRIDAY
WHICH SHOULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE FIRST
LIGHT SNOWS TO OUR SOUTHERN CA MOUNTAINS. WILL REFLECT THESE CHANGES
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...08/1800Z.
MARINE LAYER AROUND 1200 TODAY...WITH MARINE LAYER STILL CLINGING TO
THE SBA...VTU...AND LA COUNTY COASTLINES. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY 19Z...POSSIBLY A HALF HOUR OR SO
LATER. GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MARINE LAYER REFORMING TONIGHT OVER LA
COUNTY...LIKELY UNDER 1000 FEET THOUGH. LESS CONFIDENT AT KOXR AND
KSBA...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY THOSE SITES WILL REMAIN CLEAR...AS WELL
AS THE VALLEYS.
KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY 19Z. EXPECT
IFR CONDS TO REFORM AROUND 08Z +/- 1 HOUR...WITH LIFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF. IFR VSBYS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 19Z. GOOD CHANCE OF NO CIGS TONIGHT...BUT MVFR HZ
POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TRM
AVIATION...MEIER
SYNOPSIS...TRM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 081757
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES DIDN`T GET AS COLD LAST NIGHT AS WAS EARLIER FEARED DUE
TO HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS ALOFT. 1028MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN PROVIDED GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH CANYONS ALONG THE WEST SLOPE
OF THE SIERRA...AND NORTH WINDS ABOVE INVERSIONS IN THE VALLEYS.
SOME FOG DEVELOPED IN THE QUINCY AND CHESTER AREAS. THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA BY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. THE WAVE ALSO LIFTED
SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT KOAK
SHOWED 850MB TEMPERATURES OF NEARLY 50 DEGREES. EXPECT A NICE DAY
ACROSS THE VALLEYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL ALSO REACH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY EAST WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL CHILLY.
SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG JETSTREAM REMAINS IN
PLACE ALONG 40N. ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM
DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW...SPLITTING IT BY
TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAP INTO
A MODEST 1.25 INCH PRECIPITATE WATER PLUME AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE ON
THIS SYSTEM IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...
AHEAD OF THIS...A WEAK WAVE SPREADS SHOWERS ONTO THE CALIFORNIA
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD
INTO THE LASSEN PARK AREA AND SHASTA COUNTY MOUNTAINS TUESDAY...BUT
IN GENERAL THE EFFECTS FROM THIS WILL JUST BE SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MINOR
FORECAST UPDATES THIS MORNING FOR FOG AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS. SG
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MASS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE W FLOW AT 10K FEET AND
STRONG ABOVE 25K. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. PATCHY FOG IN THE
HYR MTN VALLEYS THRU 19Z. GUSTY EAST SFC WNDS THRU CANYONS ALONG THE
W SLOPES OF THE SIERNEV THRU 21Z. SG
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 081742
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
908 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:08 AM PST SUNDAY...THE DISTRICT IS OFF
TO A COOLER START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
COULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS THE DISTRICT REMAINS UNDER A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SWELL HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 15 FEET AT COASTAL BUOYS. SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TODAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS ONE TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH
RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS
HAS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY IN THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEVADA AND EASTERN OREGON WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS
AROUND 15 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA....SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.UNTIL 4 PM TODAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 081742
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
908 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:08 AM PST SUNDAY...THE DISTRICT IS OFF
TO A COOLER START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
COULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS THE DISTRICT REMAINS UNDER A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SWELL HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 15 FEET AT COASTAL BUOYS. SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TODAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS ONE TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH
RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS
HAS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY IN THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEVADA AND EASTERN OREGON WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS
AROUND 15 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA....SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.UNTIL 4 PM TODAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081738
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH VETERANS DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MIXED WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY
COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THERE WAS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IN A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS THIN
AND LETTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS WAS THICK ENOUGH TO DIMINISH THE SUN SOUTH AND EAST OF
GILA BEND TO THE CASA GRANDE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. IF THE HIGH
CLOUDINESS REMAINS MOSTLY THIN...TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
FROM MEXICO IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH OVER OUR AREA WITH
WARMER WEATHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT DAY. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO RAISE THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT PHOENIX SKY
HARBOR FOR TUESDAY TO THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE OF 90 DEGREES IN
THE FORECAST PACKAGE THAT WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON. THE RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR PHOENIX SKY HARBOR OF 90 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY...
THE 10TH OF NOVEMBER WAS SET IN 1989. NO SHORT TERM UPDATES PLANNED
THIS MORNING...BUT IF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS LOOKS AS IF IT WILL REMAIN
THIN...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH
BROUGHT SOME THICKER MID AND HI CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA...HAS NOW
MOVED ON TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD COULD BE SEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DRY AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SERN
CA/SRN AZ WITH PWAT VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. PROGS AGREE THAT A RATHER ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
A VERY FLAT DIRTY RIDGE BUILDING OVER AZ TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. DUE
TO THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN AT TIMES...LEADING TO EITHER PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DAY
TO DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMER
DESERTS REACHING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WELL TO THE
EAST AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC
NW/NRN CA COAST. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AND THE CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH SOME THICKNESS COOLING WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL
OFF A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S
FOR THE MOST PART AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS
AND EUROPEAN HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...
AND ARE CALLING FOR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...AND THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE INCREASED WIND
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED AHEAD OF THE TROF...AND GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR...STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND NATURE OF OUR CLIMO
POPS...FELT IT PRUDENT TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST OVER OUR ZONE 24 THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
SINGLE DIGIT POPS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME CLEARING
FROM THE WEST LIKELY BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF NICELY
THURSDAY AND LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER MOST OF OUR
DESERTS...THEN DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK TO BE SATURDAY...AS HIGHS FALL ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLING TRENDS SUPPORTED NICELY BY MOS...GRIDDED MODEL OUTPUT
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AND SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUING
AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND A SLOW COOLING TREND TO THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE IN ZONE 133 ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KLOX 081732 CCA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CALIFORNIA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
COOLING...MORE CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. VERY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHLAND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PRODUCING CANYON WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE LOW 30S THROUGH WIND-FAVORED LOCATIONS OF LA AND
VENTURA COUNTY. HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE 60 DM OR SO OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST. EXPECT LESS FOG TONIGHT AND
LIMITED TO LA COASTAL AREAS WITH POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN DENSE CONDITIONS. NO FORECAST UPDATES THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12Z MODELS ARE ALL NOW LATCHING ON TO A
STRONGER TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH CA DURING THE LATE WED-THU TIME
PERIOD. MODELS NOW ALL DEPICTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LA COUNTY. ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH COLD AIR ON FRIDAY
WHICH SHOULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE FIRST
LIGHT SNOWS TO OUR SOUTHERN CA MOUNTAINS. WILL REFLECT THESE CHANGES
IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
08/1145Z.
MARINE LAYER NEAR 1600 FEET WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS EXTENDING AS
FAR NORTH AS KOXR. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING
WITH GOOD OFFSHORE TRENDS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IT IS QUESTIONABLE
THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL REFORM TONIGHT...IF IT DOES IT WILL
LIKELY ONLY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COASTS.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLOUDS MAY NOT REFORM THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.
KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD DISSIPATE 1 OR 2
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TRM
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...TRM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KLOX 081731
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER CALIFORNIA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REACH AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
COOLING...MORE CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. VERY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHLAND WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PRODUCING CANYON WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE LOW 30S THROUGH WIND-FAVORED LOCATIONS OF LA AND
VENTURA COUNTY. HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE 60 DM OR SO OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS PERSIST. EXPECT LESS FOG TONIGHT AND
LIMITED TO LA COASTAL AREAS WITH POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN DENSE CONDITIONS. NO FORECAST UPDATES THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12Z MODELS ARE ALL NOW LATCHING ON TO A
STRONGER TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH CA DURING THE LATE WED-THU TIME
PERIOD. MODELS NOW ALL DEPICTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LA COUNTY. ASSOCIATED
UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH COLD AIR ON FRIDAY
WHICH SHOULD LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE FIRST
LIGHT SNOWS TO OUR SOUTHERN CA MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
08/1145Z.
MARINE LAYER NEAR 1600 FEET WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS EXTENDING AS
FAR NORTH AS KOXR. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING
WITH GOOD OFFSHORE TRENDS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IT IS QUESTIONABLE
THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL REFORM TONIGHT...IF IT DOES IT WILL
LIKELY ONLY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COASTS.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLOUDS MAY NOT REFORM THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.
KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD DISSIPATE 1 OR 2
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TRM
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...TRM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KHNX 081711
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
911 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...VARIABLE CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY BUT
REMAINING DRY. POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS
MORNING AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN PRESIDES OVER CALIFORNIA. WILL
EXPECT CLOUDS TO ROLL OVER THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY AS PIECES OF
WEAK ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS THICKER CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE BAY AREA WHICH MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
YET...WILL KEEP THE DISTRICT DRY AS THE DYNAMICS REMAIN TOO WEAK
FOR ANY PRECIP TODAY. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SFO
TO LAS HAVE WEAKEN TO JUST OVER 5MB...THE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE
WITH COOLER AIR SURGING THROUGH THE AREA. 24 HOUR CHANGE SHOW MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS DOWN ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEG-F FROM THAT OF SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS SHOULD NOT HIT 70
DEG-F AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE
NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009/
STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM VISALIA SOUTH AND EXTENDING
INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA AND TEHACHAPIS. THESE
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE TODAY...HOWEVER VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS TODAY A LITTLE TRICKY AND CLOUD-
DEPENDENT...BUT OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
OTHERWISE A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST PAC WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG FETCH OF MAINLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IS SEEN ON SAT PIX FROM THE CENTRAL CA COAST ALL THE
WAY OUT PAST 150W. THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM TIME TO TIME BRINGING
PTCLDY SKIES TO THE REGION THRU TUES. THE EAST PAC FLOW IS FCST TO
BUCKLE BY WED WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPING WEST OF
160W...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF MOVING SE OUT OF THE GLF AK. GFS AND
THE EURO STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY IN HOW MUCH ENERGY/MOISTURE TO
DRAG ACROSS CA WED NITE AND THURS. THE 00Z ECMWF GRABS HOLD OF
SOME SUBTROP MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL PAC AROUND 20N...AND BRINGS A
RATHER ACTIVE FRONT THRU CENTRAL CA THURS. THE 00Z GFS WAS PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE WITH LITTLE PRECIP THURS...BUT THE 06Z RUN IS JUST AS
WET AS THE EURO...BUT IN THE THUR NITE/FRI TIME FRAME. SO...WITH
TOO MANY VARIABLES TO GO BY...BASICALLY LOADED CLIMO POPS TO WED
NITE AND THURS AND SEE IF SOME BETTER CONSENSUS IS FORTHCOMING
FROM THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
A MINOR WARMING TREND IS SEEN FOR MON AND TUES AS H85 TEMPS
MODIFY...BUT THIS COULD BE OFFSET A BIT DEPENDING ON CLOUD AMTS.
MUCH COOLER THURS AND FRI WITH AND BEHIND TROF...AND SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO 5-6K IN THE SIERRA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS SEEN FOR
AT LEAST SAT AND A LITTLE WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...LCL MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 081708
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
908 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:08 AM PST SUNDAY...THE DISTRICT IS OFF
TO A COOLER START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WHICH
COULD SERVE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR AS THE DISTRICT REMAINS UNDER A
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SWELL HEIGHTS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 15 FEET AT COASTAL BUOYS. SWELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TODAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE DISTRICT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST LATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THIS ONE TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH
RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS
HAS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE
00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY IN THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST SUNDAY...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE WITH KEEP VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY A 10-15 KT
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA....SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.UNTIL 4 PM TODAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: TENTINGER
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 081621
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
A MIX OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LOW CLOUDS GREET US AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND CLOUDS JUST AS EXTENSIVE AS
THEY WERE YESTERDAY...DESPITE AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE TREND. HOWEVER
THE ACTUAL CLOUD LAYER IS THINNER WITH HOLES IN IT...SO THE CLEARING
WILL BE QUICKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
DECREASE THIS MORNING. THE FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL WAIT ANOTHER
DAY BEFORE DECIDING TO PUMP UP A RIDGE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
ADDITION SOME WEAK OFFSHORE SETS UP TONIGHT. THAT WILL MEAN LESS
EXTENSIVE COASTAL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SO MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL
GO UP ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC AND MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. PAST MODEL RUNS HAD SUCH LIMITED MOISTURE THAT RAIN WAS
NOT CONSIDERED MUCH...BUT THE LATEST RUNS SHOW SOME RAIN FOR
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE IF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS PROVIDE MORE OR LESS
SUPPORT FOR RAIN. THE TROUGH WILL SLOW DOWN AS A SECOND SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH IT DURING FRIDAY...THEN IT IS SHOWN TO MOVE OUT
SATURDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS SHOW A DELAY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
TROUGH...BUT CONTINUITY ON MODEL SOLUTIONS IS POOR. IT APPEARS...FOR
NOW...THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A SERVING OF OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
081430Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH THIS MORNING WAS AROUND 2000 FEET AND
IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FEET TONIGHT AND MONDAY. STRATUS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BREAK UP BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z BUT SOME
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING BACK INLAND AFTER SUNSET. COASTAL
AIRPORTS SHOULD GET CEILINGS...AGAIN...ANYTIME BETWEEN SUNSET AND
05Z. BREAK UP ON MONDAY SHOULD BE BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z.
ABOVE THE MARINE STRATUS LAYER...EXPECT SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE
FL250 WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PG
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION...HORTON
000
FXUS66 KSTO 081253
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
450 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
ZONAL FLOW OVER NORCAL THIS EVENING WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. SFC
WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY FROM
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. WE HAD EXPECTED WINDS TO DECOUPLE
AND ALLOW AN INVERSION TO SET UP. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
MINIMAL...BUT THE NAM12 925 MB GRADIENT FROM RDD-SAC IS 18 DM WITH
WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 KTS. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES (VWP) SHOW
35-45 KTS AT 2000 FT AGL...BUT THE 0.9 VELOCITY SLICE ONLY SHOWS
20-30 KTS. THE 0.9 VELOCITY SLICE IS PROBABLY MORE ACCURATE AS LOW
NUMBER OF REFLECTORS IN THE ATMOS ARE PROBABLY SKEWING THE VWP...SO
THE 06Z NAM12 VERIFIED PRETTY WELL. AT ANY RATE...CANX FROST
ADVISORY.
TODAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR FROM YESTERDAY AS VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGING SLIDES OVER THE AREA...BUT IS COUNTERED BY HIGH
CLOUDS. UPPER RIDGE GETS PUMPED UP OVER THE WEST A BIT ON MONDAY BUT
BUMPED EASTWARD AS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST.
MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA BUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY BRING COOLING TO THE NORTH. EVENING MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN
DRAGGING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT POPS REMAIN LIMITED TO ABOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA AND QPF QUITE LOW AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SUPPORTS THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ON
WEDNESDAY. THE IMPACT WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR INTERIOR
NORCAL ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. JMC
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD POINT TOWARD
THURSDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE
CONSISTENCY IN DETAILS...AND SOLUTIONS HAVE FLIPPED WITH THE GFS NOW
INDICATING LESS PROGRESSION OF THURSDAY/S SYSTEM WHILE THE GEM AND
ECMWF ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS ALL LEADS TO VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...AND FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT
THIS WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH PERSISTENT MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD
REFLECTED IN LARGE-SCALE RIDGING INDICATED BY THE GEM AND ECMWF...
WHILE THE 06Z GFS HAS COME IN COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH A TROUGH
SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH SCTD HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPSR 081220 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
520 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH
BROUGHT SOME THICKER MID AND HI CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA...HAS NOW
MOVED ON TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD COULD BE SEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DRY AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SERN
CA/SRN AZ WITH PWAT VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. PROGS AGREE THAT A RATHER ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
A VERY FLAT DIRTY RIDGE BUILDING OVER AZ TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. DUE
TO THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN AT TIMES...LEADING TO EITHER PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DAY
TO DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMER
DESERTS REACHING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WELL TO THE
EAST AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC
NW/NRN CA COAST. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AND THE CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH SOME THICKNESS COOLING WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL
OFF A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S
FOR THE MOST PART AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS
AND EUROPEAN HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...
AND ARE CALLING FOR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...AND THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE INCREASED WIND
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED AHEAD OF THE TROF...AND GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR...STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND NATURE OF OUR CLIMO
POPS...FELT IT PRUDENT TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST OVER OUR ZONE 24 THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
SINGLE DIGIT POPS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME CLEARING
FROM THE WEST LIKELY BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF NICELY
THURSDAY AND LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER MOST OF OUR
DESERTS...THEN DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK TO BE SATURDAY...AS HIGHS FALL ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLING TRENDS SUPPORTED NICELY BY MOS...GRIDDED MODEL OUTPUT
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THRU 09/06Z. LGT
SFC WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH SKY HARBOR EXPECTING A WEST BREEZE
BY AROUND 18-20Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND A SLOW COOLING TREND TO THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL
INCREASE IN ZONE 133 ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KLOX 081210
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
344 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH DECREASING NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY...THEN A COOLING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...LOW CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED INTO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...AND INTO THE VALLEYS OF L.A.
COUNTY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOME LOW CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING THE
NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU COUNTY MTNS AND INTERIOR SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES. COASTAL MARINE INVERSION WAS LOCATED AT ABOUT 1600 FEET
AND WAS RATHER WEAK. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF THIS
MORNING...AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. GRADS WERE TRENDING
OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. EXPECT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF
WARMING IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
ON THE CENTRAL COAST. SOME GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR AND PASSES AND CANYONS THRU AND BELOW THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE...BUT EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED GUSTS...WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL RISE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE PUMPS UP ACROSS THE SWRN STATES...THEN ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ON TUE. GRADS WILL BE WEAKLY OFFSHORE AT
NIGHT AND WEAKLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE LESS IN THE
WAY OF NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
NIGHTS...AND WHATEVER DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IN
MOST AREAS ON MONDAY...BRINGING TEMPS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE A TAD MORE WARMING ON
TUE...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ON TUE...SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FCST AREA IN THE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ERN PAC.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL
CAUSE COOLING TO BEGIN ON WED...ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ADDITIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY THU AND FRI AS THE
TROUGH SWINGS ONSHORE. THE 06Z RUN OF GFS IS MUCH SHARPER AND
STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING THE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF JUST OFF
NRN CA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AS ENERGY PHASES IN FROM THE NORTH.
THEN THE UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS CENTRAL CA ON FRI. THE SCENARIO
SHOWS A DECENT FRONTAL SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU
THROUGH EARLY FRI...BRINGING WDSPRD RAIN TO THE REGION. WITH SUCH A
MAJOR CHANGE FROM ITS 00Z RUN...AM RELUCTANT TO JUMP ON THIS
SOLUTION...SO HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...THIS LATEST RUN BEARS SOME SIMILARITIES TO THE 00Z
ECMWF...SO IT CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED TOTALLY. HOPEFULLY...LATER RUNS
WILL SHED MORE LIGHT ON THE SITUATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
08/1145Z.
MARINE LAYER NEAR 1600 FEET WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS EXTENDING AS
FAR NORTH AS KOXR. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING
WITH GOOD OFFSHORE TRENDS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IT IS QUESTIONABLE
THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL REFORM TONIGHT...IF IT DOES IT WILL
LIKELY ONLY AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COASTS.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLOUDS MAY NOT REFORM THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.
KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD DISSIPATE 1 OR 2
HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BRUNO
AVIATION...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KEKA 081209
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
409 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN CA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ZONAL NW FLOW WILL BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN CA TODAY BUT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY WET AS A
PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW.
SIGNS OF THE NEXT RAIN PRODUCER IS OBSERVABLE WITH INFRARED IMAGERY
AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 48N 140W. THE NEXT EXPECTED RAIN
PRODUCER FOR NW CA IS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.
WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CA COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BEGIN PRODUCING RAIN OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING THAN THE MOST RECENT
FRONT PASSES WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT RAINFALL
FORECAST IS FOR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER BETWEEN MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING...A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY...AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.
A SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. DUE TO RUN TO RUN
MODEL VARIATIONS...THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION... AND WHETHER THE COLD AIR WILL ALIGN WITH
THE PRECIPITATION TO PRODUCE LOWER SNOW LEVELS.
MID-RANGE SYNOPTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
RAIN EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. TH
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR IFR IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE
NORTH COAST LATE AFTERNOON->EARLY EVENING...THEN INLAND AND SOUTH
MON NIGHT->EARLY TUE. DJB
&&
.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE LARGE NW SWELL AND POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH SURF. ENP HAS BEEN TOO HIGH AND TOO LONG ON THE DURATION OF
THE SWELL EVENT. THUS HAVE SCALED HEIGHTS DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEXT FRONT AND WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. GFS AND NAM12 SHOW
WINDS RAMPING UP TO 20-30 KTS BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH GUST POTENTIAL
TO 40 KT. A LOW END GALE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IT IS 24-36
HOURS OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO HOIST
A WATCH DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. DJB
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST TODAY FOR CAZ001-002.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST TODAY FOR PZZ450-455
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ470-475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KHNX 081153
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
353 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM VISALIA SOUTH
AND EXTENDING INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA AND
TEHACHAPIS. THESE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE TODAY...HOWEVER VARYING
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS TODAY A
LITTLE TRICKY AND CLOUD-DEPENDENT...BUT OVERALL...SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY.
OTHERWISE A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST PAC WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG FETCH OF MAINLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS IS SEEN ON SAT PIX FROM THE CENTRAL CA COAST ALL THE
WAY OUT PAST 150W. THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM TIME TO TIME BRINGING
PTCLDY SKIES TO THE REGION THRU TUES. THE EAST PAC FLOW IS FCST TO
BUCKLE BY WED WITH A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPING WEST OF
160W...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF MOVING SE OUT OF THE GLF AK. GFS AND
THE EURO STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY IN HOW MUCH ENERGY/MOISTURE TO
DRAG ACROSS CA WED NITE AND THURS. THE 00Z ECMWF GRABS HOLD OF
SOME SUBTROP MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL PAC AROUND 20N...AND BRINGS A
RATHER ACTIVE FRONT THRU CENTRAL CA THURS. THE 00Z GFS WAS PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE WITH LITTLE PRECIP THURS...BUT THE 06Z RUN IS JUST AS
WET AS THE EURO...BUT IN THE THUR NITE/FRI TIME FRAME. SO...WITH
TOO MANY VARIABLES TO GO BY...BASICALLY LOADED CLIMO POPS TO WED
NITE AND THURS AND SEE IF SOME BETTER CONSENSUS IS FORTHCOMING
FROM THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
A MINOR WARMING TREND IS SEEN FOR MON AND TUES AS H85 TEMPS
MODIFY...BUT THIS COULD BE OFFSET A BIT DEPENDING ON CLOUD AMTS.
MUCH COOLER THURS AND FRI WITH AND BEHIND TROF...AND SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO 5-6K IN THE SIERRA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS SEEN FOR
AT LEAST SAT AND A LITTLE WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...
LCL MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FACING
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BINGHAM
AVN/FW...DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 081147
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
347 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:30 AM PST SUNDAY...ANOTHER COUPLE OF NICE FALL
DAYS APPEAR TO BE IN THE WORKS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS A SLIGHT COOLING IN TEMPERATURES AND FALLING
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE. 850 MB LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOW VERY
LITTLE VARIATION THROUGH MID-WEED PERHAPS ONLY BY ONE OR TWO DEGREES
CELSIUS UP OR DOWN. OVERALL TODAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SHAPING UP TO
BE SIMILAR AS SUNDAY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF RAIN SHOULD
FOCUS ON NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA BUT SOME OF IT MAY REACH THE BAY
AREA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE
JET DYNAMICS ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT REALLY TEND TO DIMINISH
AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BACKS
OFF A BIT ON THIS SOLUTION INDICATING LESS QPF WITH THE SYSTEM BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES ALREADY ADVERTISED FOR
THESE DAYS. SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WHICH
WARRANTS CHANCE WORDING. OVERALL IT`S A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING IN MAINLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES. BY FRIDAY THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER THOUGH THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES STILL COULD SEE A FEW MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:45 AM PST SUNDAY...BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE WITH KEEP VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH ONLY A 10-15 KT
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA....SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.UNTIL 4 PM TODAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION/MARINE: TENTINGER
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 081038
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
INLAND. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS ALSO BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E WITH ABOUT 4 MB SAN-IPL AND
WEAK BUT INCREASING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM THE N.
FLAT W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASING MARINE LAYER...WITH LITTLE OR NO LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO
BE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. GRADUALLY WARMER WITH MAX TEMPS INLAND
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROGS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO
WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE ZONES FOR NOW. DRY NLY
OFFSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS SATURDAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
080930Z...MARINE LAYER STRATUS HAS FILLED IN OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. ITS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF FILLING
IN OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE. ALL COASTAL TAF SITES HAVE CIGS FROM 1300
FT TO 1500 FT MSL WITH TOPS AROUND 2000 FT MSL. KONT WILL HAVE
INTERMITTENT BKN CIGS BLO 010. EXPECT AREAS OF VIS 3-5SM...LOCALLY
1-3SM IN FOG WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
AS THE FOG LIFTS AND LOW CLOUDS BREAK UP BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z. MVFR
CIGS AND VIS SHOULD RETURN TO THE COASTAL TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z THIS EVENING.
ABOVE THE MARINE STRATUS LAYER...EXPECT SCT-BKN CIRRUS ABOVE FL200
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TODAY. PG
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SCV
AVIATION...PG
000
FXUS66 KMTR 081033
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
230 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:30 AM PST SUNDAY...ANOTHER COUPLE OF NICE FALL
DAYS APPEAR TO BE IN THE WORKS FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY.
24 HOUR CHANGE SHOWS A SLIGHT COOLING IN TEMPERATURES AND FALLING
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE. 850 MB LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOW VERY
LITTLE VARIATION THROUGH MID-WEED PERHAPS ONLY BY ONE OR TWO DEGREES
CELSIUS UP OR DOWN. OVERALL TODAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SHAPING UP TO
BE SIMILAR AS SUNDAY MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF RAIN SHOULD
FOCUS ON NORTHERNMOST CALIFORNIA BUT SOME OF IT MAY REACH THE BAY
AREA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL COAST. WEAK TO MODERATE
JET DYNAMICS ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT REALLY TEND TO DIMINISH
AS THEY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN BACKS
OFF A BIT ON THIS SOLUTION INDICATING LESS QPF WITH THE SYSTEM BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES ALREADY ADVERTISED FOR
THESE DAYS. SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL WHICH
WARRANTS CHANCE WORDING. OVERALL IT`S A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING IN MAINLY WEAK
SHORTWAVES. BY FRIDAY THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER THOUGH THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES STILL COULD SEE A FEW MORE LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENTS AND A DRY AIRMASS. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT VFR ALL DAY SUNDAY AT THE BAY AREA
TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPO GROUPS PUT IN
FOR CHANCE OF LOCALIZED CIGS NEAR KMRY AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
BELIEVE THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 9 PM COASTAL BUOYS REPORTING SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 16 TO 21 FEET. LARGE SWELLS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS. NEXT TIDAL CYCLE BRINGS A 4.8 FOOT HIGH TIDE TO THE
GOLDEN GATE AT 4:40 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA....SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.UNTIL 4 PM TODAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: CANEPA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW/TENTINGER
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 080945
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
245 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH
BROUGHT SOME THICKER MID AND HI CLOUDINESS TO OUR AREA...HAS NOW
MOVED ON TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. IR IMAGERY AT 2 AM SHOWED CLEAR
SKIES OVER THE CWA...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUD COULD BE SEEN
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DRY AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS SERN
CA/SRN AZ WITH PWAT VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 30S. PROGS AGREE THAT A RATHER ZONAL FLOW
WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH
A VERY FLAT DIRTY RIDGE BUILDING OVER AZ TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. DUE
TO THE ZONAL NATURE OF THE FLOW...PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN AT TIMES...LEADING TO EITHER PARTLY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DAY
TO DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S...PEAKING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THE WARMER
DESERTS REACHING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WELL TO THE
EAST AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC
NW/NRN CA COAST. INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...AND THE CLOUDS
COMBINED WITH SOME THICKNESS COOLING WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPS TO FALL
OFF A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE MID 80S
FOR THE MOST PART AND ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...THURSDAY THROUG SATURDAY...GFS
AND EUROPEAN HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...
AND ARE CALLING FOR A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROF TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR
AREA...AND THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE INCREASED WIND
ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED AHEAD OF THE TROF...AND GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR...STRENGTH OF THE TROF AND NATURE OF OUR CLIMO
POPS...FELT IT PRUDENT TO PUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST OVER OUR ZONE 24 THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
SINGLE DIGIT POPS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. MOST OF
THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL...AND WE SHOULD SEE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD...WITH SOME CLEARING
FROM THE WEST LIKELY BY SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL FALL OFF NICELY
THURSDAY AND LOWER INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER MOST OF OUR
DESERTS...THEN DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE
JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. EXPECT THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK TO BE SATURDAY...AS HIGHS FALL ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLING TRENDS SUPPORTED NICELY BY MOS...GRIDDED MODEL OUTPUT
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COMPARED WITH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES
HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
DESERT AREAS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
000
FXUS65 KREV 080940
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
BROAD ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WITH POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED WEAK VORT ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY TO RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. ALSO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED INTO THE
REGION WITH THE SLIDE MOUNTAIN DEW POINT CURRENTLY AT -21 F. THIS
DRY AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS.
A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW COAST
MONDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD THE CA
COAST. A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT GENERATES
A PRECIP BAND MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN CA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS EAST. MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS REGARDING
HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIP BAND SURVIVES WITH THE NAM BEING THE
WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION...WHICH IS SURPRISING AT 60
HOURS OUT. EITHER WAY FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
WARRANT CHANCE POPS SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE QPF IS ANTICIPATED.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER SIMILAR SHORTWAVE AND NARROW MOISTURE PLUME
APPROACH THE WEST COAST HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM. JORDAN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MADE A FEW CHANGES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE TO
REFLECT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE BEYOND THURSDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PROBLEMS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD OF DAYS 6 AND 7.
MODELS ALL CONTINUE TREND OF SLOWING LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE WEDNESDAY AS IS BUT DID TREND POPS UP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND TRENDED POPS UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY. STILL WILL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES THAT BEGIN
TO ARISE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT IT HAS VERY LIMITED
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT
EITHER THE SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF OR THE LESS AMPLIFIED BUT
LESS PROGRESSIVE...THAN THE GFS...CANADIAN. EITHER WAY THIS
WOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHER POPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY
GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ECMWF TENDS TO BE A LEADING INDICATOR
AND IF OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO TREND THIS WAY
WILL NEED TO RAISE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY EVEN MORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BEYOND THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE EVEN MORE WITH
PROGRESSIVE GFS PUSHING THIS FIRST TROUGH WELL EAST AND PASSING A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RATHER WEAK WNW FLOW. ON
THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF...AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY PUSH THE FIRST TROUGH EAST BY FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THEN ECMWF DROPS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE INTO NORTHERN NV FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS ALSO HAS SOME SUPPORT IN ENSEMBLES BUT NOT TO
THE EXTENT EARLIER PERIODS OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION DO. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE INTO MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 AND A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS I WOULD PREFER TO
SEE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLE DOWN BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS RATHER
NEW SOLUTION. MLF
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN VICINITY OF KTRK AND A FEW
OTHER VALLEYS IN THE SIERRA EACH NIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES. HAVE SEEN SOME FREEZING FOG THUS FAR THIS MORNING IN
VICINITY OF KTRK. FZFG IS LIMITED DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY LIFT BY 08/16 UTC. MLF
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 080921
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
120 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE DISCUSSION...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY FROM DROPPING
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SHOW 35-45KT AT
2000 FT AGL. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY THAT WAS IN PLACE
FOR THE SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. JMC
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW OVER NORCAL THIS EVENING WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE FAIR. EVENING NAM...18Z GFS AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATING BAND OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK JET AIMED INTO NORCAL WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS CIRRUS WILL PLAY INTO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND BIGGEST SHORT
TERM WEATHER CONCERN. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND EVENING NAM GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHER OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
FORECASTS THAN 12Z NAM DID. HAVE MODIFIED FROST ADVISORY CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF CONTINUING LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND
WILL NUDGE UP OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT. BELIEVE ISOLATED FROST IS A
POSSIBILITY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MID 30 DEGREE TEMPS IN
OUTLYING AREAS BUT ALSO BELIEVE THIS FROST WILL BE QUITE PATCHY AND
SHORT LIVED. TEMP TO DEW POINT SPREADS OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT THIS EVENING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY AS VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGING SLIDES OVER THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE GETS PUMPED UP OVER
THE WEST A BIT ON MONDAY BUT BUMPED EASTWARD AS PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA BUT
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BRING COOLING TO THE NORTH.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME HIGHS OR POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE WARMING. EVENING
MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DRAGGING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT POPS REMAIN
LIMITED TO ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND QPF QUITE LOW AT
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS COMING IN LINE ENOUGH THIS EVENING
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE VALLEY AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW BUT LOW QPF VALUES EXPECTED AGAIN FOR
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 080724 AAA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1120 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...TWO INVERSIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LATEST
ACARS SOUNDINGS AT LAX THIS EVENING...ONE AROUND 1000 FT AND ANOTHER
AROUND 4500 FT. LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT FROM CATALINA
ISLAND TO THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND POINTS SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
WERE BEGINNING TO EXPAND UP THE COAST AS A WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS. IT
LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND SOME OF
THE ADJACENT VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF
MOVING TO THE VTU COAST OVERNIGHT THANKS TO SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS. SOME LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN BANKED UP ON THE N
MOUNTAINS LOPES OF VTU/SBA COUNTIES AND OVER THE CUYAMA VALLEY THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS HAS HELPED INCREASE CANYON
WINDS ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR IN THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER CA THRU SUN.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN CA ON MON...THEN
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE E PAC ON
TUE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW...STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES...WILL CONTINUE SUN MORNING...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY
WEAK FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...ALTHO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE L.A. COUNTY COAST SUN MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THRU MON...THEN THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN HI CLOUDS FOR TUE RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART. HI TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUN THEN NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON AND TUE.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN WED AS AN
ADVANCING TROF REACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIZABLE
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BOTTOMING OUT FRI BEFORE
OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS SAT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...08/0600Z.
LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO KBUR AND
KVNY BY 09Z.
KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF. THERE IS A 20
PERCENT CHANCE IT MAY TAKE UNTIL 21Z TO CLEAR.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF. THERE IS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR CAT BY 13Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD/WOFFORD
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...WOFFORD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KREV 080627
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1027 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
VISIBILITY AT THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT FELL BRIEFLY TO ONE MILE THIS
EVENING...EVEN WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS NEAR ZERO AT TRUCKEE SO HAVE UPDATED
FORECASTS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING BOTH IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND IN THE SIERRA VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP THE JET DIRECTED INTO
THE WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGEST
PIECE ENERGY UNTIL MID WEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
A SLOW WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.
LOW THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WILL BE COLD AS LIGHT WINDS...NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS
FROM TRUCKEE NORTHWARD DUE TO RECENT RAINS. THERE WILL BE A DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE SIERRA LATE TONIGHT THAT SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
SINCE THE MODELS KEEP THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA REDUCED
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LOW
CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE JET AND POCKETS OF
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF A LIFTING
MECHANISM AND DRY SURFACE LAYERS WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND.
DID INCREASE WINDS WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. GFS/NAM SHOWING PERIODS OF 30-40KT 700MB FLOW MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NORTH OF I-80...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE TUESDAY...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE WINDIER DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO INCREASE DUE TO LIGHT SURFACE
SUNDAY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OR AT LEAST BE FROM THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE APPROACHING WAVE TURNS THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE LOWER VALLEYS. BRONG
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM. SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK STILL
UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH GOOD CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN TROUGH...WITH MODELS REALLY HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
DETAILS OF THE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AFTER
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE COMING THROUGH ON WED TO WED NIGHT.
INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER EACH DAY IN THE
MODELS...SO DON`T REALLY HAVE MUCH STOCK IN IT...BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE. DID
INCREASE TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WARM FLOW. LOWERED TEMPS FOR
THU-FRI...NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP US COOL. WE
MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER IF THE GFS PANS OUT. AFTER
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CA/NV ON BY FRIDAY..GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT
PRECIP. HOON
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 18 KTS
BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE. 50-50 CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG AT KTRK
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...DUE TO LIGHT EAST FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDS SUNDAY MORNING. HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 080539
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
940 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:38 PM PST SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
WATER VAPOUR SATELLITE IMAGE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 4 TO 8
DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY EVENING
WITH NO FOG EXPECTED OTHER THAN IN THE NORTHBAY VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
CHILLY DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST OUT OF THE
AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTHBAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SPREADING SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH
4PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST SWELLS MADE IT TO 20 TO 22 FEET TODAY
PROVIDING SOME IMPRESSIVE SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE LATEST
OBSERVATION FOR BUOY 13...LOCATED OFF OF BODEGA BAY...REPORTING 15
FEET AT 17 SECONDS. HOWEVER...BUOY 42...LOCATED OFF OF MONTEREY BAY
IS STILL REPORTING 19 FEET AT 17 SECONDS. THESE LARGE WAVES ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE AS WELL AS STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENTS AND A DRY AIRMASS. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT VFR ALL DAY SUNDAY AT THE BAY AREA
TERMINALS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR FORECAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPO GROUPS PUT IN
FOR CHANCE OF LOCALIZED CIGS NEAR KMRY AROUND SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
BELIEVE THIS IS LOW PROBABILITY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:40 PM PST SATURDAY...HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF 9 PM COASTAL BUOYS REPORTING SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 16 TO 21 FEET. LARGE SWELLS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
NEXT 18 HOURS. NEXT TIDAL CYCLE BRINGS A 4.8 FOOT HIGH TIDE TO THE
GOLDEN GATE AT 4:40 AM SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 080502
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW OVER NORCAL THIS EVENING WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE FAIR. EVENING NAM...18Z GFS AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATING BAND OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK JET AIMED INTO NORCAL WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS CIRRUS WILL PLAY INTO OVERNIGHT LOWS AND BIGGEST SHORT
TERM WEATHER CONCERN. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING AND EVENING NAM GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHER OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
FORECASTS THAN 12Z NAM DID. HAVE MODIFIED FROST ADVISORY CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF CONTINUING LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND
WILL NUDGE UP OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT. BELIEVE ISOLATED FROST IS A
POSSIBILITY GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MID 30 DEGREE TEMPS IN
OUTLYING AREAS BUT ALSO BELIEVE THIS FROST WILL BE QUITE PATCHY AND
SHORT LIVED. TEMP TO DEW POINT SPREADS OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT THIS EVENING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY AS VERY SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGING SLIDES OVER THE AREA. UPPER RIDGE GETS PUMPED UP OVER
THE WEST A BIT ON MONDAY BUT BUMPED EASTWARD AS PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE CWA BUT
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY BRING COOLING TO THE NORTH.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN DAYTIME HIGHS OR POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE WARMING. EVENING
MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DRAGGING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT POPS REMAIN
LIMITED TO ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND QPF QUITE LOW AT
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS COMING IN LINE ENOUGH THIS EVENING
THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE VALLEY AND CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW BUT LOW QPF VALUES EXPECTED AGAIN FOR
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION
BY FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADS TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE
SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. .
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 080442
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
840 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUE)...TWO INVERSIONS WERE NOTED IN THE LATEST
ACARS SOUNDINGS AT LAX THIS EVENING...ONE AROUND 1000 FT AND ANOTHER
AROUND 4500 FT. LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT FROM CATALINA
ISLAND TO THE ORANGE COUNTY COAST AND POINTS SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
WERE BEGINNING TO EXPAND UP THE COAST AS A WEAK EDDY DEVELOPS. IT
LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND SOME OF
THE ADJACENT VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF
MOVING TO THE VTU COAST OVERNIGHT THANKS TO SOME OFFSHORE FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS. SOME LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN BANKED UP ON THE N
MOUNTAINS LOPES OF VTU/SBA COUNTIES AND OVER THE CUYAMA VALLEY THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE NORTHERLY GRADIENTS HAS HELPED INCREASE CANYON
WINDS ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE I-5
CORRIDOR IN THE L.A./VTU COUNTY MOUNTAINS...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PERSIST OVER CA THRU SUN.
WEAK UPPER RIDGING CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN CA ON MON...THEN
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE E PAC ON
TUE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW...STRONGEST OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA
COUNTIES...WILL CONTINUE SUN MORNING...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY
WEAK FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...ALTHO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE LOW CLOUDS
NEAR THE L.A. COUNTY COAST SUN MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THRU MON...THEN THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN HI CLOUDS FOR TUE RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST
PART. HI TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUN THEN NEAR
NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON AND TUE.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN WED AS AN
ADVANCING TROF REACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIZABLE
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BOTTOMING OUT FRI BEFORE
OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS SAT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...08/0000Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAFS. CENTRAL COAST WILL LIKELY STAY CAVU
TONIGHT WITH BREEZY N TO NE WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONLY CIGS TONIGHT EXPECTED ALONG THE LA COUNTY COAST...WITH IFR TO
LOCAL LIFR CONDS TO FORM BETWEEN 06-09Z...THEN BURNOFF BY 20Z SUN
AM. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE SOME LLWS AND
UDDS AT KSBA THROUGH AROUND 08Z TONIGHT.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 01Z. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT CIGS WILL RETURN IN EARNEST
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...WITH IFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF. LIKELY THAT 4SM HZ WILL
AFFECT THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 14Z-18Z...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD/WOFFORD
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...WOFFORD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 080439
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND WARMER
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOCAL FOG
WERE INTO COASTAL ZONES AND LOCALLY INLAND THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
ALSO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING HAD AN INVERSION BASED
NEAR 2000 FT AND SHOWED THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN WLY WINDS ALOFT.
ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E WITH ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL AND WEAK BUT
INCREASING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS FROM THE N.
FLAT W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WEAKER
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASING MARINE LAYER...WITH LITTLE OR NO LOW CLOUDS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE NEAR THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS...INCREASING TUESDAY. GRADUALLY WARMER WITH MAX TEMPS
INLAND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BUT CLOSER TO SEASONAL NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INLAND TO THE N WEDNESDAY THEN A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG S ALONG THE
COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
TROUGH IS LACKING MOISTURE AND PROGS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT SO WILL
LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FROM THE ZONES FOR NOW. DRY NLY
OFFSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING HEIGHTS SATURDAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WARMER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...
080430Z...MARINE STRATUS SURGING INLAND ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AT 04Z
AND SHOULD FILL IN OVER MOST OF COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEFORE 08Z
WITH BASES BETWEEN 1.2K AND 1.6K FT AND TOPS NEAR FL020. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE AT KONT DUE TO RECENT ADVANCE OF THE STRATUS
INLAND AND INDICATIONS OF DEVELOPING WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE
NORTH. AT THIS TIME THINKING IS TO KEEP CURRENT TAF INTACT...WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS CLOSE...BUT JUST SHORT OF KONT OVERNIGHT WHERE VIS
COULD DROP TO 2-3SM IN HAZE/FOG 10Z-16Z. THE SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND 18Z SUN.
ABOVE THE MARINE STRATUS LAYER...EXPECT SCT-BKN CIRRUS ABOVE FL200
WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...JAD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 080438
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
838 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:38 PM PST SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
WATER VAPOUR SATELLITE IMAGE THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT. THE IR SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 4 TO 8
DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A CHILLY EVENING
WITH NO FOG EXPECTED OTHER THAN IN THE NORTHBAY VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
CHILLY DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST OUT OF THE
AREA WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. CLOUDS AND ONSHORE
WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE NORTHBAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SPREADING SOUTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH
4PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST SWELLS MADE IT TO 20 TO 22 FEET TODAY
PROVIDING SOME IMPRESSIVE SURF AND MINOR BEACH ERROSION ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. SWELLS ARE BEGINING TO SUBSIDE WITH THE LATEST
OBSERVATION FOR BUOY 13...LOCATED OFF OF BODEGA BAY...REPORTING 15
FEET AT 17 SECONDS. HOWEVER...BUOY 42...LOCATED OFF OF MONTEREY BAY
IS STILL REPORTING 19 FEET AT 17 SECONDS. THESE LARGE WAVES ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF
ZONE AS WELL AS STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR SKIES. STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT DOWN THE COAST WITH
AROUND 4 MB FROM ACV-SFO THEN 7 MB FROM SFO-SBA WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
GRADIENTS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. CURRENT PROFILER DATA
SHOWS COOLING ALOFT WITH NO DISTINCT INVERSION. ANY INVERSIONS
TONIGHT WILL BE RADIATIVE AND IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT VFR FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS TO START SUNDAY
AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. EVENING WINDS
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL EASE AFTER 03-04Z. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TO START THE DAY SUNDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THIS EVENING. NW WINDS OVER THE OCEAN
COULD BRING SOME LOCAL CIGS INTO KMRY OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THAT IS LOW. IF THEY DO COME IN IT SHOULD BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING AND ANY CIGS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST. AT 2 PM HALF MOON BAY BUOY REPORTED 21
FOOT SEAS. SWELLS IN THE 15 TO 18 FOOT RANGE WITH A 16 SECONDS PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL ADD ANOTHER FOOT
OR TWO TO THE COMBINED SEAS. SWELLS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE
ON SUNDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KHNX 080400 CCA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
800 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY. LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE VALLEY AND THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENON THIS EVENING WAS NOT METEOROLOGICAL.
RATHER...BRIGHT METEORS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAURID METEOR
SHOWER LIT THE SKY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AROUND 0130Z
SUNDAY /1730 PST SATURDAY/. THE TAURIDS TYPICALLY PEAK AROUND
NOVEMBER 8TH-10TH...AND RESULT FROM DEBRIS ALONG THE ORBIT OF COMET
2P/ENCKE COLLIDING WITH THE EARTH/S ATMOSPHERE AND BURNING UP. ALSO
OF INTEREST WAS A FAVORABLE PASS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SKY /AS SEEN FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA/ BETWEEN 0154Z-0158Z SUNDAY /1754-1758 PST SATURDAY/.
WINDS INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
EARLIER TODAY AS A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WERE REPORTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND WERE COVERED BY A SHORT-TERM FORECAST /NOWHNX/.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
AS OF 00Z SUNDAY /1600 PST SATURDAY/...RANGED FROM 66 /AT THE MERCED
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT/ TO 70 AT DELANO AND THE PORTERVILLE AND VISALIA
MUNICIPAL AIRPORTS. THE CHINA LAKE N.W.T.C. WAS THE HOT SPOT IN
THE HANFORD FORECAST/ WARNING AREA WITH A HIGH OF 74 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AT
03Z SUNDAY /1900 PST SATURDAY/ WERE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WERE DOWN 4-8 DEGREES FROM 03Z SATURDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY WERE DOWN 2-3 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH VALLEY WERE DOWN AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FROST
POSSIBLE ONLY IN THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED SPOTS.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS
EVENING. WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SJV. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY. LOW CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE VALLEY AND THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION...A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS PATCHY CLOUDS...COOLER CONDITIONS AND WINDS
NOW DOMINATE THE DISTRICT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CLOUDS BANKING UP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA...AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND INTO
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SFO TO
LAS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH A VALUE CURRENTLY AT 11.8MB...AND
SLOWLY TRENDING UP. THIS GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY AS LOCAL WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY
HAVE REACHED 15 TO 20 MPH. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM VBG AND OAK
WERE SHOWING STRONG WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 50 TO
70 KNOTS ABOVE 500MB. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THESE STRONGER WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEND SUPPORT FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
AS A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY. WHILE NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PIECE OF ENERGY...
WINDS COULD REMAIN AT BREEZY LEVELS FOR ONE MORE DAY...ALONG WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...MODELS PROG A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING OVER THE
DISTRICT BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
LATEST RUN OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT TROF PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DEEP THE
TROF COULD BECOME. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP THE
DISTRICT DRY ON MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING FOR WARMER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER TROF THEN ATTEMPTS TO
ENTER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TOWARD
THURSDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...
MAINLY TOWARD THE YOSEMITE AREA...FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE UNCERTAINTY
IS MINIMAL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...CLIMO
VALUES...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...
ENSEMBLES BEGIN SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE TROF WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD NEXT SATURDAY. YET...LONGER RANGE MODELS DO HAVE
GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHOWING A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SURGE
SOUTH AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE...AFTER HAVING
TEMPERATURES MODERATE UNDER THE RIDGE/TROF PATTERN... TEMPERATURES
MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP AS THE FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL. WILL
ONLY GO ABOUT 5 DEG-F BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR MID NOVEMBER.
AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FACING
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DUDLEY/DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KHNX 080400
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
800 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY. LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER
OVER THE VALLEY AND THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENON THIS EVENING WAS NOT METEOROLOGICAL.
RATHER...BRIGHT METEORS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAURID METEOR
SHOWER LIT THE SKY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AROUND 0130Z
SUNDAY /1730 PST SATURDAY/. THE TAURIDS TYPICALLY PEAK AROUND
NOVEMBER 8TH-10TH...AND RESULT FROM DEBRIS ALONG THE ORBIT OF COMET
2P/ENCKE COLLIDING WITH THE EARTH/S ATMOSPHERE AND BURNING UP. ALSO
OF INTEREST WAS A FAVORABLE PASS OF THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SKY /AS SEEN FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA/ BETWEEN 0154Z-0158Z SUNDAY /1754-1758 PST SATURDAY/.
WINDS INCREASED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
EARLIER TODAY AS A DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH WERE REPORTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND WERE COVERED BY A SHORT-TERM FORECAST /NOWHNX/.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
AS OF 00Z SUNDAY 1600 PST SATURDAY/...RANGED FROM 66 /AT THE MERCED
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT/ TO 70 AT DELANO AND THE PORTERVILLE AND VISALIA
MUNICIPAL AIRPORTS. THE CHINA LAKE N.W.T.C. WAS THE HOT SPOT IN
THE HANFORD FORECAST/ WARNING AREA WITH A HIGH OF 74 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AT
03Z SUNDAY /1900 PST SATURDAY/ WERE IN THE 50S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY WERE DOWN 4-8 DEGREES FROM 03Z SATURDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY WERE DOWN 2-3 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH VALLEY WERE DOWN AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT FROST
POSSIBLE ONLY IN THE COLDEST WIND-SHELTERED SPOTS.
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS
EVENING. WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SJV. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY. LOW CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE VALLEY AND THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION...A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS PATCHY CLOUDS...COOLER CONDITIONS AND WINDS
NOW DOMINATE THE DISTRICT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CLOUDS BANKING UP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA...AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND INTO
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SFO TO
LAS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH A VALUE CURRENTLY AT 11.8MB...AND
SLOWLY TRENDING UP. THIS GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY AS LOCAL WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY
HAVE REACHED 15 TO 20 MPH. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM VBG AND OAK
WERE SHOWING STRONG WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 50 TO
70 KNOTS ABOVE 500MB. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THESE STRONGER WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEND SUPPORT FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
AS A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY. WHILE NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PIECE OF ENERGY...
WINDS COULD REMAIN AT BREEZY LEVELS FOR ONE MORE DAY...ALONG WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...MODELS PROG A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING OVER THE
DISTRICT BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
LATEST RUN OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT TROF PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DEEP THE
TROF COULD BECOME. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP THE
DISTRICT DRY ON MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING FOR WARMER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER TROF THEN ATTEMPTS TO
ENTER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TOWARD
THURSDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...
MAINLY TOWARD THE YOSEMITE AREA...FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE UNCERTAINTY
IS MINIMAL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...CLIMO
VALUES...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...
ENSEMBLES BEGIN SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE TROF WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD NEXT SATURDAY. YET...LONGER RANGE MODELS DO HAVE
GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHOWING A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SURGE
SOUTH AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE...AFTER HAVING
TEMPERATURES MODERATE UNDER THE RIDGE/TROF PATTERN... TEMPERATURES
MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP AS THE FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL. WILL
ONLY GO ABOUT 5 DEG-F BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR MID NOVEMBER.
AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FACING
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...BROTHERTON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DUDLEY/DCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS65 KPSR 080303
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES MAINLY NORTH OF AZ THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC
HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN USUAL RESULTING
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT DRY FORECASTS LOOK OK...NO UPDATES PLANNED.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLY.
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE DRY AND VERY WEAK SOUTHERN END OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER MONDAY COMPARED WITH
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REACH A PEAK. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDINESS IN A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GENERALLY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE DRY IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. THUS...IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLAGSTAFF
AND TUCSON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...WE HAVE SINGLE DIGIT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AT
LEAST FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COMPARED WITH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES
HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
DESERT AREAS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ/
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
000
FXUS66 KSTO 080000
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING IN NORTH BREEZES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET AND A CHILLY NIGHT IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION. AREAS
AWAY FROM THE CITIES COULD SEE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING. THE 18Z MODELS AND 12Z WRF HAD SOMEWHAT MILDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ADDITIONALLY A MASS OF HIGH CLOUDS APPEARS
HEADED FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THE SATELLITE. THESE MAY HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES HOWEVER. A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
EARLIER FOR THE ENTIRE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY 3AM-9AM. THE ADVISORY IS MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 99 AND AWAY FROM METROPOLITAN AREAS. COLD SENSITIVE FRUITS
AND TREES SUCH AS APRICOTS...PEARS...GRAPES AND FIGS SHOULD BE
PROTECTED FROM COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE NEAR THE
DATELINE. WITH THIS WAVELENGTH IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET GOOD
STORMS INTO CALIFORNIA. SUNDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AFTER A CHILLY
START. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
MILDER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALOFT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF A SPLITTING SHORTWAVE MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT THE VALLEYS SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE
NORTHERN COAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT FORECAST MODELS WEAKEN IT RAPIDLY AS
IT DROPS SOUTH...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SYSTEM. THE GFS AND THE NAM
BOTH HANG THE FRONT UP NEAR THE COASTAL RANGE TUESDAY...KEEPING THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-80. SG
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS
STILL RELATIVELY LOW AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
VALLEY AND CHANCE OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM HEADS
TOWARDS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 072352
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
350 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH THE WEST COAST
TODAY WITH THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAGGING
THROUGH SRN CA. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT,
BEHIND IT A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. ALREADY
GETTING SOME WIND UP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOME WIND WILL LIKELY FILTER DOWN INTO THE
SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY TONIGHT AS WELL AS BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE LA/VTU VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE LA COUNTY
COAST AND ALONG OUR BOUNDARY WITH KERN COUNTY.
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH
SUPPORT ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE OK BUT NOTHING TO
WRITE HOME ABOUT. SO ANY OFFSHORE BREEZES THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED AND WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO HELP
BOOST TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES, WITH WARMER VALLEYS HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE 70S. THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR FROM THIS TROF WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGH 20S FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SLO COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY MORNINGS.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON GRADIENTS START TURNING STRONGLY ONSHORE, BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAPPEN SOON ENOUGH TO REACH THE VALLEYS SO
INLAND AREA HIGHS WILL PROBABLY PEAK TUE WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL
HAVE THEIR WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN WED AS AN
ADVANCING TROF REACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIZABLE
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BOTTOMING OUT FRI BEFORE
OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS SAT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
&&
&&
.AVIATION...08/0000Z.
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAFS. CENTRAL COAST WILL LIKELY STAY CAVU
TONIGHT WITH BREEZY N TO NE WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING.
ONLY CIGS TONIGHT EXPECTED ALONG THE LA COUNTY COAST...WITH IFR TO
LOCAL LIFR CONDS TO FORM BETWEEN 06-09Z...THEN BURNOFF BY 20Z SUN
AM. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE SOME LLWS AND
UDDS AT KSBA THROUGH AROUND 08Z TONIGHT.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 01Z. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT CIGS WILL RETURN IN EARNEST
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...WITH IFR AND OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDS EXPECTED.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF. LIKELY THAT 4SM HZ WILL
AFFECT THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN 14Z-18Z...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...MEIER/30
SYNOPSIS...WOFFORD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KMTR 072350
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
450 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:42 PM PST SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 60S MOST AREAS. WITH A CONTINUED
BROAD UPPER TROUGH/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT COOLING CAN BE ANTICIPATED EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS THE TAIL EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES THE STATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE DISTRICT AT TIMES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND AFFECTING THE STATE.
THE IMMEDIATE WEATHER HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL IMPACTING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. CURRENT BUOY REPORTS
INDICATE SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 18 FEET OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THUS...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 PM PST SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
WITH CLEAR SKIES. STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT DOWN THE COAST WITH
AROUND 4 MB FROM ACV-SFO THEN 7 MB FROM SFO-SBA WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
GRADIENTS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. CURRENT PROFILER DATA
SHOWS COOLING ALOFT WITH NO DISTINCT INVERSION. ANY INVERSIONS
TONIGHT WILL BE RADIATIVE AND IN THE VALLEYS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT VFR FOR BAY AREA TERMINALS TO START SUNDAY
AND THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. EVENING WINDS
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL EASE AFTER 03-04Z. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TO START THE DAY SUNDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THIS EVENING. NW WINDS OVER THE OCEAN
COULD BRING SOME LOCAL CIGS INTO KMRY OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THAT IS LOW. IF THEY DO COME IN IT SHOULD BE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING AND ANY CIGS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST. AT 2 PM HALF MOON BAY BUOY REPORTED 21
FOOT SEAS. SWELLS IN THE 15 TO 18 FOOT RANGE WITH A 16 SECONDS PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL ADD ANOTHER FOOT
OR TWO TO THE COMBINED SEAS. SWELLS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE
ON SUNDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: RWW
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 072307
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA AT MID AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...SOMEWHAT THICKER IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY 2 TO 4
DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE EL CENTRO/IMPERIAL
AREA AND JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK.
THE DRY AND VERY WEAK SOUTHERN END OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST OVER OUR AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER MONDAY COMPARED WITH
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REACH A PEAK. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDINESS IN A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GENERALLY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE DRY IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. THUS...IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLAGSTAFF
AND TUCSON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...WE HAVE SINGLE DIGIT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AT
LEAST FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
&&
.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COMPARED WITH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES
HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE
DESERT AREAS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS
AVIATION...ELLIS
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS
000
FXUS66 KMTR 072253
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
242 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:42 PM PST SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 60S MOST AREAS. WITH A CONTINUED
BROAD UPPER TROUGH/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT COOLING CAN BE ANTICIPATED EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS THE TAIL EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES THE STATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE DISTRICT AT TIMES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND AFFECTING THE STATE.
THE IMMEDIATE WEATHER HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL IMPACTING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. CURRENT BUOY REPORTS
INDICATE SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 18 FEET OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THUS...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 1:00 PM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS OUT
OF THE SFO BAY AREA BUT SOME PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM
AROUND MRY BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT SOME
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN MRY BAY WHICH IS OFTEN SHIELDED BY
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS COULD AFFECT MRY AND SNS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:00 PM PST SATURDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST. AT 2 PM HALF MOON BAY BUOY REPORTED 21
FOOT SEAS. SWELLS IN THE 15 TO 18 FOOT RANGE WITH A 16 SECONDS PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL ADD ANOTHER FOOT
OR TWO TO THE COMBINED SEAS. SWELLS WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE
ON SUNDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 072242
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
242 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:42 PM PST SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 60S MOST AREAS. WITH A CONTINUED
BROAD UPPER TROUGH/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT COOLING CAN BE ANTICIPATED EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS THE TAIL EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH BRUSHES THE STATE. THERE
COULD ALSO BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE DISTRICT AT TIMES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT AND AFFECTING THE STATE.
THE IMMEDIATE WEATHER HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL IMPACTING THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. CURRENT BUOY REPORTS
INDICATE SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 18 FEET OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS. THUS...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 1:00 PM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS OUT
OF THE SFO BAY AREA BUT SOME PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM
AROUND MRY BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT SOME
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN MRY BAY WHICH IS OFTEN SHIELDED BY
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS COULD AFFECT MRY AND SNS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:50 AM PST SATURDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OBSERVED
FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS EARLY THIS MORNING PER
COASTAL BUOYS. A FEW READINGS ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 FEET WITH SWELL
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS. LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WILL UPDATE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: W PI
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KREV 072235
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP THE JET DIRECTED INTO
THE WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGEST
PIECE ENERGY UNTIL MID WEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
A SLOW WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.
LOW THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WILL BE COLD AS LIGHT WINDS...NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS
FROM TRUCKEE NORTHWARD DUE TO RECENT RAINS. THERE WILL BE A DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE SIERRA LATE TONIGHT THAT SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.
SINCE THE MODELS KEEP THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA REDUCED
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LOW
CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE JET AND POCKETS OF
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF A LIFTING
MECHANISM AND DRY SURFACE LAYERS WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND.
DID INCREASE WINDS WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. GFS/NAM SHOWING PERIODS OF 30-40KT 700MB FLOW MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NORTH OF I-80...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE TUESDAY...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE WINDIER DAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO INCREASE DUE TO LIGHT SURFACE
SUNDAY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OR AT LEAST BE FROM THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE APPROACHING WAVE TURNS THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE LOWER VALLEYS. BRONG
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM. SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK STILL
UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH GOOD CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN TROUGH...WITH MODELS REALLY HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
DETAILS OF THE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AFTER
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE COMING THROUGH ON WED TO WED NIGHT.
INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER EACH DAY IN THE
MODELS...SO DON`T REALLY HAVE MUCH STOCK IN IT...BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE. DID
INCREASE TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WARM FLOW. LOWERED TEMPS FOR
THU-FRI...NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP US COOL. WE
MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER IF THE GFS PANS OUT. AFTER
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CA/NV ON BY FRIDAY..GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT
PRECIP. HOON
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 18 KTS
BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE. 50-50 CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG AT KTRK
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...DUE TO LIGHT EAST FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDS SUNDAY MORNING. HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 072231
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PATCHY FROST IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK, BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH THE WEST COAST
TODAY WITH THE TAIL END OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAGGING
THROUGH SRN CA. ALTHOUGH NO PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT,
BEHIND IT A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. ALREADY
GETTING SOME WIND UP IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. SOME WIND WILL LIKELY FILTER DOWN INTO THE
SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY TONIGHT AS WELL AS BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE LA/VTU VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP BOOST HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE LA COUNTY
COAST AND ALONG OUR BOUNDARY WITH KERN COUNTY.
LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH
SUPPORT ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. SURFACE GRADIENTS ARE OK BUT NOTHING TO
WRITE HOME ABOUT. SO ANY OFFSHORE BREEZES THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED AND WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO HELP
BOOST TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES, WITH WARMER VALLEYS HIGHS BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE 70S. THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR FROM THIS TROF WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGH 20S FOR INTERIOR VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY INTERIOR SLO COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY MORNINGS.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON GRADIENTS START TURNING STRONGLY ONSHORE, BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY NOT HAPPEN SOON ENOUGH TO REACH THE VALLEYS SO
INLAND AREA HIGHS WILL PROBABLY PEAK TUE WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL
HAVE THEIR WARMEST DAY ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN WED AS AN
ADVANCING TROF REACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIZABLE
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BOTTOMING OUT FRI BEFORE
OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS SAT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.
&&
&&
.AVIATION...07/1800Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SKIRT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS EAST OF THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 07/09Z OVER
THE AREA. A DISORGANIZED MARINE LAYER WILL TOPS AREA 1.6KFT WILL
WILL PERSIST WITH TOPS DESCENDING A SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET
OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...IT IS LIKELY CIGS 010 VSBY 2SM HZ WILL CLEAR
EARLY...OTHERWISE IT IS LIKELY CIGS 007 WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 08/06Z
THEN BECOME SCATTERED AROUND 08/20Z.
KBUR...IT IS LIKELY 4SM HAZE WILL CLEAR EARLY...OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...30
SYNOPSIS...WOFFORD
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KHNX 072230
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
230 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY. LOW CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE VALLEY AND THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS PATCHY CLOUDS...COOLER CONDITIONS AND WINDS
NOW DOMINATE THE DISTRICT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
CLOUDS BANKING UP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA...AND SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND INTO
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FROM SFO TO
LAS CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH A VALUE CURRENTLY AT 11.8MB...AND
SLOWLY TRENDING UP. THIS GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY AS LOCAL WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY
HAVE REACHED 15 TO 20 MPH. UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM VBG AND OAK
WERE SHOWING STRONG WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 50 TO
70 KNOTS ABOVE 500MB. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THESE STRONGER WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD LEND SUPPORT FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
AS A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES ACROSS DURING THE DAY. WHILE NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PIECE OF ENERGY...
WINDS COULD REMAIN AT BREEZY LEVELS FOR ONE MORE DAY...ALONG WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. BY MONDAY...MODELS PROG A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING OVER THE
DISTRICT BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.
LATEST RUN OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT TROF PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DEEP THE
TROF COULD BECOME. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP THE
DISTRICT DRY ON MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PROVIDING FOR WARMER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER TROF THEN ATTEMPTS TO
ENTER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TOWARD
THURSDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...
MAINLY TOWARD THE YOSEMITE AREA...FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. WHILE ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE UNCERTAINTY
IS MINIMAL ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...CLIMO
VALUES...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BY NEXT WEEKEND...
ENSEMBLES BEGIN SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE TROF WILL
EVOLVE TOWARD NEXT SATURDAY. YET...LONGER RANGE MODELS DO HAVE
GOOD CONSENSUS ON SHOWING A NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO SURGE
SOUTH AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE...AFTER HAVING
TEMPERATURES MODERATE UNDER THE RIDGE/TROF PATTERN... TEMPERATURES
MAY SEE A SIGNIFICANT DROP AS THE FLOW BECOMES MERIDIONAL. WILL
ONLY GO ABOUT 5 DEG-F BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR MID NOVEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FACING
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THROUGH
18Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KEKA 072204
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
230 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOONS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE CWA WHILE A LARGE AND DEEP GULF OF
ALASKA VORTEX SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN WAS SEEN
BETWEEN THE SHOWERS EARLY TODAY...THEN MAINLY ON SHORE MOUNTAIN CU
PREVAILED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LESSENS RAPIDLY AT H85 AND
THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN
SHALLOW MOISTURE EARLY TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND FORCING WITH BOTH
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTH SO WE ANTICIPATE VERY
LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA. A LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FROM THE
STRONG LOW NEAR ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND
BREAKER HEIGHTS OVER 20 FEET ALONG THE REDWOOD AND MENDOCINO COASTS
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY RISING H5 HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH
COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES MARKEDLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSORS AND BRING
A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH BROAD BUT WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW.
RECENT FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THREATEN
THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION
VARIES FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CLIMO POPS FOR THE EXTENDED. A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG MODEL
ENSEMBLES ADDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR VIS IN HZ ALONG THE
COAST. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER FRONT WILL RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FG IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS RESULTING IN
IFR CONDITIONS SUN MORNING. BC
&&
.MARINE...MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE NW SWELL FROM THE
STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF AK. SWELL CONTINUES AROUND 20 TO 22 FT AT
17 SEC THIS AFTERNOON. SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO HIGH END SCA WITH SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS MON AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. BC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ001-002.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455-470-
475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 072149
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
838 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:38 AM PST SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING EXCEPT
FOR A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
OBSERVATION AT SANTA ROSA ALSO INDICATES SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
THIS MORNING.
CALIFORNIA LIES UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERALL TEMPERATURE-WISE. THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY IS THE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AS LARGE NORTHWESTERLY
SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTLINE. LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATE
THAT THE PEAK HAS PASSED WITH BUOY 12 (HALF MOON BAY) REACHING 28
FEET AT MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 15 FEET...
THUS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE
COASTLINE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAINS
AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISTRICT FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 1:00 PM PST SATURDAY...CLEAR SKIES ALONG THE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP STRATUS OUT
OF THE SFO BAY AREA BUT SOME PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM
AROUND MRY BAY.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS
AROUNFD 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHOULD KEEP A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BUT SOME
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN MRY BAY WHICH IS OFTEN SHIELDED BY
THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS COULD AFFECT MRY AND SNS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:50 AM PST SATURDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OBSERVED
FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS EARLY THIS MORNING PER
COASTAL BUOYS. A FEW READINGS ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 FEET WITH SWELL
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS. LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WILL UPDATE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 072129
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY AND IT
WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER. THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...BUT BECOME LESS EXTENSIVE. ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND BRING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST ARE STUBBORN IN SOME AREAS...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON. A FLAT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA
TODAY WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER TO ALL AREAS.
RANDOM MOISTURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
THE HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT AND VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE THE
MARINE LAYER TO GO MORE SHALLOW AND SO THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT
NOT SO FAR INLAND INCREMENTALLY EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS THAT GUST
TO 25 MPH THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE OUR
WARMEST DAYS FOR A WHILE AS THE WEAK RIDGE PATTERN PEAKS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT LOSES MOISTURE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SO IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET NO RAIN. STRENGTHENED ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE
THINGS BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. WE CAN EXPECT COOLER
WEATHER AND MORE CLOUDS...BUT NOT OVERLY CLOUDY AS THE THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BE DISRUPTED AND THE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALOFT.
BEHIND THAT TROUGH A STRONGER RIDGE ALONG WITH OFFSHORE FLOW APPEAR
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
072000Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH REMAINS AROUND 1500 FEET AND SHOULD
LOWER TO AROUND 1200 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF
STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT. COASTAL
AIRPORTS SHOULD GET CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EARLIER BREAK UP
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BY 17Z.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE
FL250...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HORTON
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION...HORTON
000
FXUS66 KSTO 071905
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1050 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
WE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM 3
AM UNTIL 9 AM LATE TONIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY IS MAINLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 99 AND AWAY FROM METROPOLITAN AREAS. COLD
SENSITIVE FRUITS AND TREES SUCH AS APRICOTS...PEARS...GRAPES AND
FIGS SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. SG
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 900 AM SATURDAY)...
POTENT SHORT WAVE SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
DRIVEN BY A 110KT JET. WELL SOUTH OF US ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS MOVING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. OUT AREA IA IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A COLD FRONT
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY
TONIGHT.
FOG PERSISTS FROM EAST OF STOCKTON TO AUBURN. FOG ALSO CONTINUES TO
HANG IN AT BLUE CANYON. NORTH BREEZES HAVE BEGUN IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AT REDDING AND RED BLUFF. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES IT
WILL BE A NICE DAY IN THE VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO TRAVELING
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. WE KEPT SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE.
WE HAVE CONCERNS THAT TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE YIELDS A 38 FOR AN OVERNIGHT LOW IN SACRAMENTO AND
STOCKTON. WE WILL HAVE A LOOK AT FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ADDRESS
THIS SHORTLY. IN THE MEANTIME A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CLOUD/FOG COVER. SG
&&
.AVIATION...LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND MOTHERLODE TODAY...WITH IFR AND
AREAS OF LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER 7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGH 19Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AFTER 19Z.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NORTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY 3 AM THOUGH 9 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071903
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
OFFSHORE FLOW TO ESTABLISH TONIGHT...WARMING AND DRYING THE AIR MASS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...A WEAK TROF IS MOVING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TODAY. BEHIND IT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS OUR
AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALREADY TRENDING OFFSHORE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT STILL QUITE GUSTY
AT TIMES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMING TO THE CENTRAL
COAST TODAY, AND THE NKX SOUNDING SOUNDING INDICATES ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FEET. HOWEVER, MOST OTHER AREAS
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME AS FRIDAY.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE EVENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST TRENDS ESTABLISHING
BETWEEN KSBA-KSMX AND KBFL-KLAX. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE A
MARGINAL STANCE FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS
GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT 950
MB...THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND THE FIRST 2500
FEET OFF THE SURFACE. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN BELOW TYPICAL
ADVISORY LEVELS...AND 950 MB AND 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS ARE
MARGINAL. WITH MORE FACTORS WEIGHING HEAVILY AGAINST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT...FORECAST MENTIONS SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
AND THE NEXT SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SCENARIO.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHING...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL
ESTABLISH ON SUNDAY. MODEL 950 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY AND MIXING RATIOS CRASH ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY...WITH NAM-WRF 950 MB
TEMPERATURES AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THAT
TUESDAY COULD BE JUST AS WARM AS MONDAY. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW A
DEVELOPING TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DIG A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR MIDWEEK...BUT MODELS STILL
DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT. GFS SEEMS TO
BE THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO GET AN IDEA ON HOW STRONG THE TROUGH WILL BE
BASED UPON THE LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY. WITH
INSPECTION OF THE THREE MODELS HANDLING OF THE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SHOULD BE PLACED WITH THE GEM AND
ECMWF FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL AND FURTHER SOUTHERLY COLD
PUSH.
&&
.MARINE...THE COMBINED SEAS FROM A DISTANT STORM AND LOCALLY
GENERATED SEAS WILL CREATE SWELLS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20
FEET TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOCALLY GENERATED SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE DISTANT STORM
GRADUALLY SUBSIDES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
HIGH SURF WILL PERSIST ALONG EXPOSED WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING
SHORES FROM VENTURA COUNTY TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 5 AND 6 FEET WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 12 PM
PST TODAY AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LOWER HIGH TIDE
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET AROUND 3 AM PST SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1800Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SKIRT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS EAST OF THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 07/09Z OVER
THE AREA. A DISORGANIZED MARINE LAYER WILL TOPS AREA 1.6KFT WILL
WILL PERSIST WITH TOPS DESCENDING A SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET
OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...IT IS LIKELY CIGS 010 VSBY 2SM HZ WILL CLEAR
EARLY...OTHERWISE IT IS LIKELY CIGS 007 WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 08/06Z
THEN BECOME SCATTERED AROUND 08/20Z.
KBUR...IT IS LIKELY 4SM HAZE WILL CLEAR EARLY...OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC...WOFFORD/HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071852
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1050 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATED AVAITION SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
OFFSHORE FLOW TO ESTABLISH TONIGHT...WARMING AND DRYING THE AIR MASS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...A WEAK TROF IS MOVING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TODAY. BEHIND IT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS OUR
AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALREADY TRENDING OFFSHORE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT STILL QUITE GUSTY
AT TIMES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMING TO THE CENTRAL
COAST TODAY, AND THE NKX SOUNDING SOUNDING INDICATES ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FEET. HOWEVER, MOST OTHER AREAS
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME AS FRIDAY.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE EVENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST TRENDS ESTABLISHING
BETWEEN KSBA-KSMX AND KBFL-KLAX. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE A
MARGINAL STANCE FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS
GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT 950
MB...THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND THE FIRST 2500
FEET OFF THE SURFACE. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN BELOW TYPICAL
ADVISORY LEVELS...AND 950 MB AND 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS ARE
MARGINAL. WITH MORE FACTORS WEIGHING HEAVILY AGAINST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT...FORECAST MENTIONS SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
AND THE NEXT SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SCENARIO.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHING...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL
ESTABLISH ON SUNDAY. MODEL 950 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY AND MIXING RATIOS CRASH ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY...WITH NAM-WRF 950 MB
TEMPERATURES AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THAT
TUESDAY COULD BE JUST AS WARM AS MONDAY. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW A
DEVELOPING TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DIG A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR MIDWEEK...BUT MODELS STILL
DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT. GFS SEEMS TO
BE THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO GET AN IDEA ON HOW STRONG THE TROUGH WILL BE
BASED UPON THE LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY. WITH
INSPECTION OF THE THREE MODELS HANDLING OF THE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SHOULD BE PLACED WITH THE GEM AND
ECMWF FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL AND FURTHER SOUTHERLY COLD
PUSH.
&&
.MARINE...VERY LARGE NW SWELL...GENERATED BY A MONSTROUS STORM IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA...HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO THE OUTER WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 20 FT SEAS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CAPE
SAN MARTIN BUOY TO THE W OF PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS. SWELL AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...WITH COMBINED SEAS LIKELY REACHING 18 TO
23 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TODAY. SWELL PERIODS WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 17 SECOND RANGE. THIS LARGE AND MODERATELY LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGH SURF ON W AND NW FACING BEACHES OF SLO
AND SBA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. VERY HIGH SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
DUE TO THE NWLY DIRECTION OF THE SWELL...THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY
WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE SWELL PERIOD IS REASONABLY LONG...SOME SWELL ENERGY WILL REFRACT
AROUND PT CONCEPTION AND INTO THE INNER WATERS. SWELL OR COMBINED
SEAS COULD REACH 10 FEET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND ACROSS THE INNER WATERS NW OF SANTA
CATALINA ISLAND LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL SURF WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ON EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH ENERGY SPREADS THROUGH THE CHANNEL...HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1800Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SKIRT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS EAST OF THE AREA.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE
MID LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 07/09Z OVER
THE AREA. A DISORGANIZED MARINE LAYER WILL TOPS AREA 1.6KFT WILL
WILL PERSIST WITH TOPS DESCENDING A SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET
OVERNIGHT.
KLAX...IT IS LIKELY CIGS 010 VSBY 2SM HZ WILL CLEAR
EARLY...OTHERWISE IT IS LIKELY CIGS 007 WILL REDEVELOP AROUND 08/06Z
THEN BECOME SCATTERED AROUND 08/20Z.
KBUR...IT IS LIKELY 4SM HAZE WILL CLEAR EARLY...OTHERWISE CLEAR
SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY IS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC...WOFFORD/HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...30
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 071807
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
POTENT SHORT WAVE SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
DRIVEN BY A 110KT JET. WELL SOUTH OF US ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS MOVING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. OUT AREA IA IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A COLD FRONT
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY
TONIGHT.
FOG PERSISTS FROM EAST OF STOCKTON TO AUBURN. FOG ALSO CONTINUES TO
HANG IN AT BLUE CANYON. NORTH BREEZES HAVE BEGUN IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AT REDDING AND RED BLUFF. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES IT
WILL BE A NICE DAY IN THE VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO TRAVELING
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. WE KEPT SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE.
WE HAVE CONCERNS THAT TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE YIELDS A 38 FOR AN OVERNIGHT LOW IN SACRAMENTO AND
STOCKTON. WE WILL HAVE A LOOK AT FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ADDRESS
THIS SHORTLY. IN THE MEANTIME A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CLOUD/FOG COVER. SG
&&
.AVIATION...LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND MOTHERLODE TODAY...WITH IFR AND
AREAS OF LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER 7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGH 19Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AFTER 19Z.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KSTO 071806
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
POTENT SHORT WAVE SHIFTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
DRIVEN BY A 110KT JET. WELL SOUTH OF US ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS MOVING
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. OUT AREA IA IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A COLD FRONT
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY
TONIGHT.
FOG PERSISTS FROM EAST OF STOCKTON TO AUBURN. FOG ALSO CONTINUES TO
HANG IN AT BLUE CANYON. NORTH BREEZES HAVE BEGUN IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AT REDDING AND RED BLUFF. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES IT
WILL BE A NICE DAY IN TH VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT NO TRAVELING
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. WE KEPT SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION.
WE HAVE CONCERNS THAT TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY. THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE YIELDS A 38 FOR AN OVERNIGHT LOW IN SACRAMENTO AND
STOCKTON. WE WILL HAVE A LOOK AT FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA AND ADDRESS
THIS SHORTLY. IN THE MEANTIME A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CLOUD/FOG COVER. SG
&&
.AVIATION...LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA AND MOTHERLODE TODAY...WITH IFR AND
AREAS OF LIFR PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER 7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THROUGH 19Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
AFTER 19Z.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071738
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
935 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
OFFSHORE FLOW TO ESTABLISH TONIGHT...WARMING AND DRYING THE AIR MASS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...A WEAK TROF IS MOVING THROUGH THE WEST
COAST TODAY. BEHIND IT, NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS OUR
AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALREADY TRENDING OFFSHORE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING ALONG
THE CENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING AS WELL AS THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT STILL QUITE GUSTY
AT TIMES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME WARMING TO THE CENTRAL
COAST TODAY, AND THE NKX SOUNDING SOUNDING INDICATES ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OF WARMING BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FEET. HOWEVER, MOST OTHER AREAS
SHOULD HAVE HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME AS FRIDAY.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE EVENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST TRENDS ESTABLISHING
BETWEEN KSBA-KSMX AND KBFL-KLAX. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE A
MARGINAL STANCE FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS
GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT 950
MB...THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND THE FIRST 2500
FEET OFF THE SURFACE. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN BELOW TYPICAL
ADVISORY LEVELS...AND 950 MB AND 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS ARE
MARGINAL. WITH MORE FACTORS WEIGHING HEAVILY AGAINST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT...FORECAST MENTIONS SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
AND THE NEXT SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SCENARIO.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHING...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL
ESTABLISH ON SUNDAY. MODEL 950 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY AND MIXING RATIOS CRASH ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY...WITH NAM-WRF 950 MB
TEMPERATURES AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THAT
TUESDAY COULD BE JUST AS WARM AS MONDAY. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW A
DEVELOPING TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DIG A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR MIDWEEK...BUT MODELS STILL
DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT. GFS SEEMS TO
BE THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO GET AN IDEA ON HOW STRONG THE TROUGH WILL BE
BASED UPON THE LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY. WITH
INSPECTION OF THE THREE MODELS HANDLING OF THE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SHOULD BE PLACED WITH THE GEM AND
ECMWF FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL AND FURTHER SOUTHERLY COLD
PUSH.
&&
.MARINE...VERY LARGE NW SWELL...GENERATED BY A MONSTROUS STORM IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA...HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO THE OUTER WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 20 FT SEAS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CAPE
SAN MARTIN BUOY TO THE W OF PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS. SWELL AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...WITH COMBINED SEAS LIKELY REACHING 18 TO
23 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TODAY. SWELL PERIODS WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 17 SECOND RANGE. THIS LARGE AND MODERATELY LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGH SURF ON W AND NW FACING BEACHES OF SLO
AND SBA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. VERY HIGH SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
DUE TO THE NWLY DIRECTION OF THE SWELL...THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY
WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE SWELL PERIOD IS REASONABLY LONG...SOME SWELL ENERGY WILL REFRACT
AROUND PT CONCEPTION AND INTO THE INNER WATERS. SWELL OR COMBINED
SEAS COULD REACH 10 FEET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND ACROSS THE INNER WATERS NW OF SANTA
CATALINA ISLAND LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL SURF WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ON EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH ENERGY SPREADS THROUGH THE CHANNEL...HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1155Z...STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO GET MORE
ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. S OF PT CONCEPTION...IFR CIGS WERE
THE RULE IN COASTAL AREAS WITH MVFR VSBYS...WHILE N OF PT
CONCEPTION CIGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. EXPECT THE
VALLEYS TO REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING...AT LEAST WITH ABOUT 80
PERCENT CONFIDENCE. THE WRF SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
LINGERING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...SO BURN OFF TIMES
MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SOLID IFR CIGS TO PUSH INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY 12Z OR 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL
LINGER AS LATE AS 21 OR 22Z.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 13Z AND
16Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC...WOFFORD/HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071735
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TODAY. DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LEAD TO A COOLING TREND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF PHOENIX LATE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH
CLOUDINESS WAS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES THAT WERE GENERALLY 5 TO 11
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED WITH THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT MORE
SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERT AREAS INCLUDING THE GREATER
PHOENIX AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVES EAST.
HOWEVER...IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET TEMPERATURES TO THEIR FORECAST
VALUES...BUT EXPECT THE HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THOSE
FORECAST VALUES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA LATE THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. NO UPDATES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS MOVING INTO NWRN
MEXICO. IT WAS SPREADING MID/HI CLOUDS INTO MAINLY SERN AZ...BUT A
LOOK AT THE RECENT TUS SOUNDING SHOWED MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS AT
AND ABOVE 500MB...WITH THE AIRMASS RATHER DRY BELOW. AT 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER OUR LOWER DESERTS WERE A MIXED BAG RANGING FROM MID
20S TO THE MID 40S. PROGS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL KEEP MOVING EAST
AND AWAY FROM OUR CWA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TODAY
AND MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE DESERTS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO BE QUITE
ZONAL WITH A VERY FLAT AND SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE OVERMUCH...REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY WITH MAX
READINGS REACH NEAR 90 OVER THE WARMEST LOWER DESERTS...UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THE ECMWF IS A BIT DEEPER FRIDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS. PROGS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THIS TRANSITION TO TROFFING FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THIS
SOLUTION. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR
US...WITH WIND AND COOLING TO BE BIGGER FACTORS THAN PRECIPITATION.
LAST FEW MEX MOS RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SINGLE DIGIT POPS THRU DAY
7...FOR THE MOST PART...AND MODEL QPFS FOR SOUTHERN AZ ARE MINIMAL.
GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TROFFING SOLUTION...WILL GO WITH
CLIMO PLUS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
MENTIONED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMPS GRIDS AS WELL...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA BETTER FIT THE
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS. HIGHS
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST
AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RULE SOUTHEAST CALIF TODAY/TONIGHT.
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN 7 KTS...WITH A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE FORECAST AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT AFT 19Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY.
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO ARIZONA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR ZONE 133 WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...ELLIS/CB
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KHNX 071719
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
919 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY. LOW CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE VALLEY AND THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS.
&&
.UPDATE...POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS BANKING UP AGAINST THE SOUTH
END OF THE DISTRICT THIS MORE AS FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXTENT OF
THE CLOUDS MAINLY OVER TULARE KINGS AND KERN COUNTIES. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SECOND WAVE NORTH OF STOCKTON THAT MAY AFFECT
MERCED...MARIPOSA AND POSSIBLY YOSEMITE LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAKE NO UPDATES TO TEMPERATURES AS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS MAY NOT
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. IN
ADDITION...THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW COOLER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT VALLEY TEMP/S FROM REACHING THE 70S.
CURRENT SFO TO LAS GRADIENT AT 9.5MB AND TRENDING UP. WITH THIS
TREND AND ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMP/S...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...IN A POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. WEATHER GRIDS ALREADY SHOWING LOCAL WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH FOR TODAY...SO NO UPDATED NEEDED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/
REMAINS OF A MAINLY DISSIPATED FRONT ARE MOVING THRU THE REGION
THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEY
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND HIGH DESERTS OF KERN COUNTY SKIES ARE
MOCLEAR. BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WHERE AND HOW LONG
CLOUDS HANG AROUND. FOR THE VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS OF THE
SIERRA AND TEHACHAPIS...THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S OR HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. DONT BET ON
UPPER 60S ANYWHERE AND I HAVE GRAVE DOUBTS ABOUT MID 60S. PLUGGED
IN THE NAM12BC NUMBERS WHICH IS THE COOLEST MODEL...BUT IT MAY
STILL NOT BE ENOUGH. CLOUDS MAY ERODE A BIT SUN AS SOME LOW LEVEL
DRYING TAKES PLACE AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGS.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PAC WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THRU EARLY WED. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ON
MON AND TUES WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND TEMPS COULD
RETURN TO A FEW DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTER TUES...MODELS STILL HAVE
A GREAT DEAL OF DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT
DIGS SE WED/THURS. FOR THIS FORECAST...CONTINUED PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
AND LEFT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH SIERRA WED NITE
THRU THURS NITE. COOLER WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 22Z TODAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071638
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
838 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:38 AM PST SATURDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING EXCEPT
FOR A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
OBSERVATION AT SANTA ROSA ALSO INDICATES SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
THIS MORNING.
CALIFORNIA LIES UNDER A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVERALL TEMPERATURE-WISE. THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY IS THE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AS LARGE NORTHWESTERLY
SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COASTLINE. LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATE
THAT THE PEAK HAS PASSED WITH BUOY 12 (HALF MOON BAY) REACHING 28
FEET AT MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER...WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 15 FEET...
THUS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE
COASTLINE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAINS
AMONGST THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISTRICT FROM TIME TO TIME
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:50 AM PST SATURDAY...SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE
BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THE AIRMASS
IS MORE HUMID BUT DRYING IS EXPECTED HERE DURING THE MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z BUT
IN GENERAL THE CEILING SHOULD CLIMB TO MVFR AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL
AND DRY SOMEWHAT. VFR AFTER 19Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS BUT IN GENERAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY MID-LATE MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. CLEARING EXPECTED AT KMRY AND KSNS WITH VFR FORECAST FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:50 AM PST SATURDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OBSERVED
FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS EARLY THIS MORNING PER
COASTAL BUOYS. A FEW READINGS ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 FEET WITH SWELL
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS. LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WILL UPDATE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SSA
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSGX 071636
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD THROUGH TUESDAY AND IT
WILL BECOME A LITTLE WARMER. THE MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST...BUT BECOME LESS EXTENSIVE. ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND BRING MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MADE IT INTO THE CORNERS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE AND
INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW IN BAJA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL HAVE NO ADDITIONAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
VERY SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AND THAT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER TO ALL AREAS. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ALOFT THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT
AND VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE THE MARINE LAYER TO GO MORE
SHALLOW AND SO THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT NOT SO FAR INLAND
INCREMENTALLY EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW MAY
ALSO PRODUCE WINDS THAT GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST
DAYS FOR A WHILE AS THE WEAK RIDGE PATTERN PEAKS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE MEAN JET STREAM AND PASSES THROUGH
CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT LOSES MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE GET NO RAIN.
STRENGTHENED ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE THINGS BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL GET A BOOST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS AS WELL. BY FRIDAY THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD GET
WIPED OUT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION BRINGING US
MORE SUNSHINE BUT COOL WEATHER TOO. BEHIND THAT TROUGH A STRONGER
RIDGE ALONG WITH OFFSHORE FLOW APPEAR READY TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
071445Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH THIS MORNING WAS AROUND 1500 FEET AND
SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BREAK UP BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. EXPECT STRATUS
TO RETURN TO THE COAST BY SUNSET AND SPREAD INLAND OVERNIGHT.
COASTAL AIRPORTS SHOULD GET CEILINGS BETWEEN 02Z AND 07Z. EARLIER
BREAK UP IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...BY 17Z.
ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...EXCEPT FOR SOME CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE
FL250...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. HORTON
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION...HORTON
000
FXUS66 KLOX 071250
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
OFFSHORE FLOW TO ESTABLISH TONIGHT...WARMING AND DRYING THE AIR
MASS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...A CUTOFF TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS FALLING APART AT POINT CONCEPTION...STRETCHING
CURRENTLY FROM NEAR SAN NICOLAS ISLAND NORTH THROUGH THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL AND NORTHEAST TO KPTV IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
AS EXPECTED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IS WIPING
AWAY THE STRATUS...BUT THE OROGRAPHICS ON THE LAND MASS ARE
ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WAS
INCREASED FOR THIS MORNING...AND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN STRENGTHENS...THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
SHOULD ERODE AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE WITH SOME AREAS BECOME
MOSTLY SUNNY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL SOME PATCHES OF DENSE
FOG ARE PERSISTING EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ISSUES SHOULD DIMINISH
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...BUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LOCAL DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED
COMPLETELY OUT THIS MORNING.
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE EVENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL START TRENDING
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST TRENDS ESTABLISHING
BETWEEN KSBA-KSMX AND KBFL-KLAX. MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE A
MARGINAL STANCE FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS
GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AT 950
MB...THERE IS LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT BEYOND THE FIRST 2500
FEET OFF THE SURFACE. SURFACE GRADIENTS REMAIN BELOW TYPICAL
ADVISORY LEVELS...AND 950 MB AND 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENTS ARE
MARGINAL. WITH MORE FACTORS WEIGHING HEAVILY AGAINST ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT...FORECAST MENTIONS SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
AND THE NEXT SHIFT CAN REVISIT THE WIND SCENARIO.
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ESTABLISHING...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL
ESTABLISH ON SUNDAY. MODEL 950 AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY AND MIXING RATIOS CRASH ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY...WITH NAM-WRF 950 MB
TEMPERATURES AND GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SURFACE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST THAT
TUESDAY COULD BE JUST AS WARM AS MONDAY. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW A
DEVELOPING TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DIG A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR MIDWEEK...BUT MODELS STILL
DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGHS DEVELOPMENT. GFS SEEMS TO
BE THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE GEM CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO GET AN IDEA ON HOW STRONG THE TROUGH WILL BE
BASED UPON THE LACK OF AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CURRENTLY. WITH
INSPECTION OF THE THREE MODELS HANDLING OF THE WINDS IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA...HIGHER CONFIDENCE SHOULD BE PLACED WITH THE GEM AND
ECMWF FOR A SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL AND FURTHER SOUTHERLY COLD
PUSH.
&&
.MARINE...VERY LARGE NW SWELL...GENERATED BY A MONSTROUS STORM IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA...HAS BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO THE OUTER WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 20 FT SEAS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CAPE
SAN MARTIN BUOY TO THE W OF PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS. SWELL AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...WITH COMBINED SEAS LIKELY REACHING 18 TO
23 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TODAY. SWELL PERIODS WILL BE IN
THE 15 TO 17 SECOND RANGE. THIS LARGE AND MODERATELY LONG PERIOD
NW SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGH SURF ON W AND NW FACING BEACHES OF SLO
AND SBA COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. VERY HIGH SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
DUE TO THE NWLY DIRECTION OF THE SWELL...THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY
WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE SWELL PERIOD IS REASONABLY LONG...SOME SWELL ENERGY WILL REFRACT
AROUND PT CONCEPTION AND INTO THE INNER WATERS. SWELL OR COMBINED
SEAS COULD REACH 10 FEET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND ACROSS THE INNER WATERS NW OF SANTA
CATALINA ISLAND LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL SURF WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ON EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTIES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH ENERGY SPREADS THROUGH THE CHANNEL...HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...07/1155Z...STRATUS WAS BEGINNING TO GET MORE
ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING. S OF PT CONCEPTION...IFR CIGS WERE
THE RULE IN COASTAL AREAS WITH MVFR VSBYS...WHILE N OF PT
CONCEPTION CIGS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. EXPECT THE
VALLEYS TO REMAIN CLEAR THIS MORNING...AT LEAST WITH ABOUT 80
PERCENT CONFIDENCE. THE WRF SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
LINGERING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...SO BURN OFF TIMES
MAY BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.
KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SOLID IFR CIGS TO PUSH INTO THE
AIRFIELD BY 12Z OR 13Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL
LINGER AS LATE AS 21 OR 22Z.
KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT IFR CIGS WILL PUSH INTO THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 13Z AND
16Z.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSTO 071225
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
420 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
METSAT REVEALS A RATHER ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS MORNING. THE
JET PLACEMENT IS AROUND 42N AND NEAR THE ORE/CAL BORDER BASED ON THE
TRANSITION BETWEEN THE OPEN AND CLOSED CELL CUMULUS WEST OF 140W AND
A JET STREAK JUST EAST OF 140W. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OVER
NRN CAL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL OVER THE SIERRA
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE JET MAX POSITION AND OROGRAPHICS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CONVERGENT
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET MAX SETTLES OVER NRN CAL. WITH A
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS...LIGHT VALLEY WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. OF COURSE THIS
COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING OVER THE SRN SAC VALLEY AND THE EXTREME NRN SAC VALLEY
NEAR REDDING. FOG IS LIMITED THOUGH AS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE
PLAGUED FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT STRATOCU TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW
LEVEL HEATING. BUKIT SHOWS CONVECTIVE TEMP AT 18C/65F EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE 07/00Z KOAK SOUNDING SHOWED 16C/60F.
SUN MORNING MAY BE A BETTER DAY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE STRATOCU
WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE EVENING AND THE JET AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER THE BAY AREA...THUS PUTTING A DRY AREA ALOFT OVER NRN CAL FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
LIGHT NORTH WINDS TODAY THAT WOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL
DECOUPLE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EXIST TO GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG IN THE SRN SAC VALLEY...DELTA AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO NW COASTAL CAL MONDAY AND
INTERIOR NRN CAL MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO 4500 FT IN THE NORTH AND
6500 FT IN THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
SO PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...00Z RUNS OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AS
IT OFTEN IS SHOWS MORE PROGRESSION WITH A FASTER EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW THURSDAY. HAVE LEANED FORECAST TOWARD A LITTLE SLOWER
PROGRESSION...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF... INDICATING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY BEHIND THE LOW BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND INTO THE RIDGE ON
SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO FAR
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
&&
.AVIATION...
WKNG CDFNT WL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS INT NORCAL TDA. IFR
VSBYS/CIGS WITH NUMS -SHRA WITH -SHSN ABV 070 XPCTD NRN SIERNEV THRU
ABT 20Z...WITH IMPRVG CONDS AFT 00Z SUN. FOR THE CNTL VLY AND
FTHLS...VFR CONDS XPCTD TO PREDOMINATE WITH LCL IFR/LIFR CONDS IN
PTCHY FOG THRU 17Z.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071206
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
350 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING CAUSING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY REVEALING A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY...WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY.
OF CONCERN THIS WEEKEND IS HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTLINE. LONG PERIOD WAVES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON OUR
BEACHES AND ROCKY SHORE CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SERIES OF LARGE
WAVES OF UP TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CAN
EASILY CATCH BEACH GOERS AND WAVE WATCHERS OFF GUARD. IF YOU ARE NEAR
THE SHORE ALWAYS KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE WAVES AND PROVIDE YOURSELF
WITH AN EXTRA SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE BREAKING WAVES.
IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN CYCLONIC FLOW. TIMING
OF THESE IMPULSES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS. AS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED...THE NEXT
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY....PAVING THE WAY FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES. ANY SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT FOLLOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE STRONGER AND HAVE MORE
MOISTURE. SO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:50 AM PST SATURDAY...SOME DRYING NOTED IN THE
BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. OVER THE CENTRAL COAST THE AIRMASS
IS MORE HUMID BUT DRYING IS EXPECTED HERE DURING THE MORNING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z BUT
IN GENERAL THE CEILING SHOULD CLIMB TO MVFR AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL
AND DRY SOMEWHAT. VFR AFTER 19Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 20
KNOTS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS BUT IN GENERAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY MID-LATE MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. CLEARING EXPECTED AT KMRY AND KSNS WITH VFR FORECAST FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:50 AM PST SATURDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL OBSERVED
FROM POINT ARENA TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS EARLY THIS MORNING PER
COASTAL BUOYS. A FEW READINGS ARE AT OR ABOVE 20 FEET WITH SWELL
PERIODS NEAR 20 SECONDS. LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. WILL UPDATE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: EVANS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 071150 AAA
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
450 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TODAY. DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LEAD TO A COOLING TREND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS MOVING INTO NWRN
MEXICO. IT WAS SPREADING MID/HI CLOUDS INTO MAINLY SERN AZ...BUT A
LOOK AT THE RECENT TUS SOUNDING SHOWED MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS AT
AND ABOVE 500MB...WITH THE AIRMASS RATHER DRY BELOW. AT 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER OUR LOWER DESERTS WERE A MIXED BAG RANGING FROM MID
20S TO THE MID 40S. PROGS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL KEEP MOVING EAST
AND AWAY FROM OUR CWA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TODAY
AND MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE DESERTS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO BE QUITE
ZONAL WITH A VERY FLAT AND SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE OVERMUCH...REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY WITH MAX
READINGS REACH NEAR 90 OVER THE WARMEST LOWER DESERTS...UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THE ECMWF IS A BIT DEEPER FRIDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS. PROGS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THIS TRANSITION TO TROFFING FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THIS
SOLUTION. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR
US...WITH WIND AND COOLING TO BE BIGGER FACTORS THAN PRECIPATION.
LAST FEW MEX MOS RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SINGLE DIGIT POPS THRU DAY
7...FOR THE MOST PART...AND MODEL QPFS FOR SOUTHERN AZ ARE MINIMAL.
GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TROFFING SOLUTION...WILL GO WITH
CLIMO PLUS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
MENTIONED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMPS GRIDS AS WELL...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA BETTER FIT THE
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS. HIGHS
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST
AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RULE SOUTHEAST CALIF TODAY/TONIGHT.
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...LESS THAN 7 KTS...WITH A
GENTLE WEST BREEZE FORECAST AT SKY HARBOR AIRPORT AFT 19Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY.
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO ARIZONA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR ZONE 133 WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...SIPPLE
FIRE WEATHER...SIPPLE
000
FXUS66 KEKA 071144
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
344 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH COAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO OREGON WITH A LARGE AND DEEP GULF OF ALASKA VORTEX
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
SOUTHEAST AND CLIPS NW CA THIS MORNING...LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND INCREASED
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN
CAN BE EXPECTED IN BETWEEN THE SHOWERS TODAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT THAT PASSED YESTERDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL TODAY. MOISTURE LESSENS RAPIDLY AT H85 AND ABOVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE RESULTS IN SHALLOW
MOISTURE RETURN THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND
FORCING WITH BOTH SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL OFF TO THE NORTH SO
WE ANTICIPATE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RELATIVELY LOW QPF
THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD BECOME LOCALLY
HEAVY. OTHERWISE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL FROM THE STRONG
LOW NEAR ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH SURF AND BREAKER
HEIGHTS OVER 25 FEET ALONG THE REDWOOD AND MENDOCINO COASTS
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...RISING H5 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES SHOULD ENSURE A
MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES MARKEDLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSORS AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT ITSELF...BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFUSE.
A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH BROAD BUT WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE PAC NW. RECENT
FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THREATEN THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION
VARIES FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE EXTENDED. A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES ADDS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD. BETTWY
&&
.AVIATION... WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR IFR IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS...EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TAIL END OF A TROUGH WILL GENERATE
A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING. DJB
&&
.MARINE...MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE NW SWELL. SWELL
PEAKED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING YESTERDAY. HIGHEST REPORT WAS
FROM CDIP BUOY #13...COMING IN AT 27 FEET AT 17 SECONDS. ENP HAS
SWELL UP TO 18 FT AT 15 SECONDS CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT IS WAY TOO LONG AND HAVE SCALED HEIGHTS
DOWNWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH SWELL PERIODS OF 15-17 SECONDS
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR DANGEROUSLY HIGH SURF.
NEXT FRONT AND WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY. GFS HAS WIND
RAMPING UP TO NEAR GALE - 30 KTS. GFS HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTH WINDS...SO FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH 20-30
KTS. DJB
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ001-002.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455-470-
475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
000
FXUS66 KHNX 071135
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
335 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL THE SKY TODAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...REMAINS OF A MAINLY DISSIPATED FRONT ARE MOVING THRU
THE REGION THIS MORNING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA AND HIGH DESERTS OF KERN COUNTY
SKIES ARE MOCLEAR. BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE WHERE AND
HOW LONG CLOUDS HANG AROUND. FOR THE VALLEY AND LOWER FOOTHILLS OF
THE SIERRA AND TEHACHAPIS...THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S OR HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. DONT
BET ON UPPER 60S ANYWHERE AND I HAVE GRAVE DOUBTS ABOUT MID 60S.
PLUGGED IN THE NAM12BC NUMBERS WHICH IS THE COOLEST MODEL...BUT IT
MAY STILL NOT BE ENOUGH. CLOUDS MAY ERODE A BIT SUN AS SOME LOW
LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE A FEW DEGS.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PAC WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THRU EARLY WED. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ON
MON AND TUES WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND TEMPS COULD
RETURN TO A FEW DEGS ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTER TUES...MODELS STILL HAVE
A GREAT DEAL OF DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT
DIGS SE WED/THURS. FOR THIS FORECAST...CONTINUED PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
AND LEFT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGH SIERRA WED NITE
THRU THURS NITE. COOLER WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND VALLEY FACING SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...BINGHAM
AVN/FW...DS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KSGX 071130
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS IN SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. GRADUALLY WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN COOLER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...PATCHY STRATUS CONTINUES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER A WEAK INVERSION. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE IN
THE COLDER INLAND VALLEYS THIS MORNING DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL AND 3 MB SAN-DAG.
FLAT WEST FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER BAJA MOVES EAST. THIS WILL
BRING A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY SUNDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND A RESIDUAL MARINE LAYER
WILL CAUSE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS
ALONG THE COAST...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND ACROSS SAN DIEGO COUNTY.
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL REDUCE THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
AND BRING MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND OVERALL WEAK
PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE WEST COAST FROM THE NW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN
MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND A REDEVELOPING MARINE LAYER. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY DROP A COUPLE DEGREES ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN MUCH MORE COOLING
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
070930Z...LOW CLOUDS FILLING IN OVER THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. BKN-OVC CLOUD LYR WITH BASES FROM 015-020 MSL AND TOPS TO 030
OVER KSAN WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT KCRQ AND KSNA BTWN 10-12Z. EXPECT VIS
3-5SM AT TIMES IN FOG WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCD. THE BKN-OVC
CIGS WILL BREAK UP BTWN 16-19Z SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER THROUGH 01Z SUNDAY.
VFR ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER. PG
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SCV
AVIATION...PG
000
FXUS66 KMTR 071117
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
315 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST SATURDAY...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH CONTINUES OVER CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE SAN FRANCISCO
AND MONTEREY BAY AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING CAUSING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY REVEALING A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. COOL AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY...WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY.
OF CONCERN THIS WEEKEND IS HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTLINE. LONG PERIOD WAVES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON OUR
BEACHES AND ROCKY SHORE CAUSING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. SERIES OF LARGE
WAVES OF UP TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CAN
EASILY CATCH BEACH GOERS AND WAVE WATCHERS OFF GUARD. IF YOU ARE NEAR
THE SHORE ALWAYS KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE WAVES AND PROVIDE YOURSELF
WITH AN EXTRA SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE BREAKING WAVES.
IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA IN CYCLONIC FLOW. TIMING
OF THESE IMPULSES WILL BE DIFFICULT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS. AS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED...THE NEXT
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY....PAVING THE WAY FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES. ANY SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT FOLLOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE STRONGER AND HAVE MORE
MOISTURE. SO UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PST FRIDAY...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS
LEFT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS DEVELOPED ON FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
EVIDENCE THAT DRIER AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO MAINTAIN MVFR/IFR
CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN PICK UP SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OFFSHORE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH
18 OR 19Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL 17Z ON SATURDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHETHER LOWER CIGS WILL OCCUR. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. VFR THEREAFTER.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 17Z ON
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS BY 19Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:20 PM PST FRIDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL BEGAN
ARRIVING ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY EVENING. AT 10 PM BUOYS NORTH OF
MONTEREY BAY WERE REPORTING SEAS OF 16 TO 19 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 17
TO 20 SECONDS. EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SWELL HEIGHT BETWEEN 15 AND 19 FEET IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING SUNDAY
NIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDA...SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS
BLANCAS
...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: EVANS
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS65 KREV 071047
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND EMBEDDED VORT ENERGY
PASSING OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
JET MAX SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER NRN
CA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY LIGHT RAIN THAT
CONTINUES OVER THE SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE NORTH. IR SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY STRUGGLE AT SEEING THE LIGHT PRECIP AS IT IS QUITE
SHALLOW...WHICH IS EVIDENT BY THE 07/00Z KREV SOUNDING INDICATING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. LATEST MODELS SHOW PV ADVECTION
CONTINUING IN THE SAME REGION UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER 12Z...SO KEPT
SHOWERS GOING FROM TAHOE NORTH UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. SOME VIRGA MAY
REACH THE LEESIDE VALLEYS BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH VERTICAL
VELOCITY FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE.
WEAK TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EMBEDDED VORT ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER WRN NV THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON
MONDAY AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS
BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING AND ALLOW VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK NEAR
THE 60 DEGREE MARK. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A PRECIP BAND MOVING OVER NRN CA THAT QUICKLY
DISSIPATES AS IT DOES SO. KEPT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
FAR NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT MOST PRECIP ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL THE LONG TERM. JORDAN
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT JUST LIKE YESTERDAY THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND TODAY THIS
DIVERGENCE IS GREATER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS SHOW A GENERAL TREND
TOWARD SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH INTO AND THROUGH THE RGN STARTING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY AND HIGHER POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THAN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE TUESDAY AS IS AND JUST SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. AM NOT INCLINED TO JUMP TOO HEAVILY INTO WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE EVER CHANGING MODEL GUIDANCE.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FASTEST WITH PUSHING THE
TROUGH INTO THE RGN WHILE BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE BULK OF THE TROUGH OFF SHORE. THE CANADIAN IS NOW
THE FIRST TO SPLIT A CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH AND DROP IT INTO CA ON THURSDAY. MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AREA A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AT THIS POINT AS WELL.
DIVERGENCE INCREASES MORE BY THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED THE CANADIAN HAS
SPLIT THE SYSTEM BY THEN WITH A LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO CA. THIS HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS
STARTING TO CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER SE OREGON INTO NW NV. LASTLY THE
PROGRESSIVE GFS IS PUSHING THE TROUGH WELL EAST AND TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
ECMWF AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NE NV/SE IDAHO ON FRIDAY. BY THEN
THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW OVER NE NV AS WELL BUT DOES NOT
CLOSE IT OFF. THIS LOW IS MUCH STRONGER/COLDER IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. GIVEN THE VAST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER
DAY 5 HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY.
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO PUSH POPS A LITTLE MORE INTO
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. GFS TENDS
TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS AND GIVEN THAT
ECMWF IS TYPICALLY A LEADING MODEL THINK ITS SOLUTION OF SLOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW COULD WIN OUT. THIS WOULD
BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN CANADIAN/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS IN
SUBSEQUENT RUNS. MLF
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY MRNG
FOR AREAS OF THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH AS CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY
DROP BELOW 3K FT. THROUGH THE DAY THE LOW LVL MSTR WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE SIERRA EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
LOW LVL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT SO LIKELIHOOD OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN VCNTY KTRK IS LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION FOR
TONIGHT. MLF
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KPSR 070940
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
240 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY...BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES TODAY. DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND LEAD TO A COOLING TREND...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS BY NEXT
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONTINUED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS MOVING INTO NWRN
MEXICO. IT WAS SPREADING MID/HI CLOUDS INTO MAINLY SERN AZ...BUT A
LOOK AT THE RECENT TUS SOUNDING SHOWED MOST OF THE MOISTURE WAS AT
AND ABOVE 500MB...WITH THE AIRMASS RATHER DRY BELOW. AT 2 AM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER OUR LOWER DESERTS WERE A MIXED BAG RANGING FROM MID
20S TO THE MID 40S. PROGS AGREE THAT THE LOW WILL KEEP MOVING EAST
AND AWAY FROM OUR CWA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TODAY
AND MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE DESERTS.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW ALOFT FORECAST TO BE QUITE
ZONAL WITH A VERY FLAT AND SOMEWHAT DIRTY RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE OVERMUCH...REMAINING WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY WITH MAX
READINGS REACH NEAR 90 OVER THE WARMEST LOWER DESERTS...UNDER PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CHANGING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. LATEST EUROPEAN
AND GFS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE BEING THE ECMWF IS A BIT DEEPER FRIDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS. PROGS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THIS TRANSITION TO TROFFING FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THUS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THIS
SOLUTION. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY SYSTEM FOR
US...WITH WIND AND COOLING TO BE BIGGER FACTORS THAN PRECIPATION.
LAST FEW MEX MOS RUNS HAVE CALLED FOR SINGLE DIGIT POPS THRU DAY
7...FOR THE MOST PART...AND MODEL QPFS FOR SOUTHERN AZ ARE MINIMAL.
GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TROFFING SOLUTION...WILL GO WITH
CLIMO PLUS POPS FROM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
MENTIONED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMPS GRIDS AS WELL...AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA BETTER FIT THE
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS BEING ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS. HIGHS
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT THURSDAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWEST
AZ...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH.
BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 18 THSD MSL...AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE ABOVE TERMINAL AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH 03Z SUN.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
ZONE 133 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WINDS
AND HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
000
FXUS65 KREV 070623
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1023 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO BRING HIGHER POPS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...EXTENDING OVER LAKE TAHOE AND
NORTH TO TRUCKEE AND THE SIERRA VALLEY. RADAR THIS EVENING WAS
SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE NORTHWARD. LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED AT BLUE
CANYON SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM AND DROPPED MEASURABLE RAIN THERE.
REMAINDER OF CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH IF IT RAINS
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING NEAR TRUCKEE OR IN THE SIERRA VALLEY THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. RC
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST FROM US-50
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES.
SATELLITE SHOWS MOUNTAIN WAVES TO THE CLOUD PATTERN BUT THERE IS
RAIN STILL AFFECTING THESE AREAS...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR
TONIGHT AS MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
WARM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AS WINDS AND CLOUDS PREVENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS FROM DEVELOPING.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE JET FARTHER SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER TONIGHT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH ALLOWING COOL AIR
TO WORK INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY BE A BREEZY AT TIMES WITH THE
JET OVERHEAD...BUT MODEL DATA KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT BELOW
BELOW RIDGE LEVEL INTO MONDAY.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SYSTEM IS MOVING IN A BIT SLOWER...SO DID CUT
BACK RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. BRONG
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST
BY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN CA. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL KEEPING
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SURPRISE VALLEY...EASTERN LASSEN...AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY END UP PICKING UP MORE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW THE FRONT LOOKS PRETTY DRY OVERALL. SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
FAR NWRN NV AND NERN CA. BUMPED UP TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LEFT THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FAIRLY
UNTOUCHED.
WED-FRI...WE BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS AND SPLITTING OFF A LOW
INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV. THE 06.00Z EURO SHOWED THIS AS WELL...BUT
LOOKING AT THE 06.12Z EURO FROM TODAY...IT WANTS TO BRING IT TROUGH
NORTHERN CA AND THE GREAT BASIN. EITHER WAY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVER
OUR AREA...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. LOWER TEMPS FOR WED-FRI AS WELL...TO THE GENERAL
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE.
HOON
AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AT KTRK AND POSSIBLY KTVL THROUGH 03Z. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 06Z. HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS66 KMTR 070620
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
1020 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:02 PM PST FRIDAY...LOW CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THIS EVENING BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRIZZLE HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN THE MARINA
AND MONTEREY AREAS THEREFORE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DRIZZLE. NVA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THEREFORE EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CEASE BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT.
THE SUN WILL COME OUT TOMORROW HOWEVER COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL ONLY
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS WELL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN-STORE AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
THEREFORE NO FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ENTERING
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. BUOY 14 LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS REPORTING SEAS OF 19 FEET AT 19 SECONDS AND BUOY
13 LOCATED 48 MILES OFF OF BODEGA BAY IS AT 13 FEET AT 19 SECONDS.
SO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:15 PM PST FRIDAY...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS
LEFT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS DEVELOPED ON FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
EVIDENCE THAT DRIER AIR IS MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...
BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO MAINTAIN MVFR/IFR
CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN PICK UP SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
OFFSHORE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH
18 OR 19Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL 17Z ON SATURDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHETHER LOWER CIGS WILL OCCUR. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND UNTIL
ABOUT 18Z ON SATURDAY MORNING. VFR THEREAFTER.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 17Z ON
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS BY 19Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:20 PM FRIDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL BEGAN
ARRIVING ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY EVENING. AT 10 PM BUOYS NORTH OF
MONTEREY BAY WERE REPORTING SEAS OF 16 TO 19 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 17
TO 20 SECONDS. EXPECT LARGE SWELL TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SWELL HEIGHT BETWEEN 15 AND 19 FEET IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING SUNDAY
NIGHT. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS BLANCAS
AND MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
.THRU SUN AFTERNOON...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH
THROUGH THE MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KLOX 070436 RRA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
835 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW THE SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND STARTS MONDAY...BUT WILL BE
INTERRUPTED BY MIDWEEK WHEN A COLD LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A VERY WEAK MARINE INVERSION WAS ABOUT
1400 FEET DEEP AT LAX THIS EVENING. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...AND THESE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND A BIT MORE OVER THIS AREA THRU THE NIGHT. S
OF POINT CONCEPTION...THERE WERE LOW CLOUDS AROUND AND S OF CATALINA
ISLAND AND ALSO PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE PALOS VERDES
PENINSULA. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK EDDY IS GOING TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP THE MARINE LAYER TO BECOME A BIT BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING INTO
THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST LATE. LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS...THE
CUYAMA VALLEY AND THE NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SBP AND SBA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS BY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST THIS EVENING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL BAJA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO NW MEXICO
ON SAT. A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE MOST PART SAT THRU SUN...THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON MON
AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU MON. IT LOOKS LIKE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED S
OF POINT CONCEPTION SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING....ESPECIALLY FOR L.A.
COUNTY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
PREVAIL IN MANY AREAS SAT THRU MON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THRU SUN THEN WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS ON MON.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER SIBERIA MERGING INTO THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA ON
MON. THIS NEW SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY INTO A NARROW BUT FAIRLY
COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WORKS DOWN THE CA COAST WED OR THU. THE
REASON FOR THE BIG OR IN THAT TIME RANGE IS THE FRIENDLY
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS A FULL 24
HRS SLOWER BUT MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF THE DEEPNESS OF THE
LOW. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...A FEW OF ITS MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN
SUPPORT THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED THE COOLING TREND IN THE
FORECAST FROM TUE THROUGH THU...BUT SPREAD THE COOLING OUT MORE
EVENLY IN THAT PERIOD AS OPPOSED TO THE SHARP DROP ON WED THAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD GOING. IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN MTN SNOW COME THU...BUT COULD
NOT WARRANT MUCH ABOVE PTCLDY SKIES AND 10 PERCENT POPS WITH THIS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...07/0425Z.
VERY LARGE NW SWELL...GENERATED BY A MONSTROUS STORM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING.
SWELL AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON SATURDAY...WITH COMBINED
SEAS LIKELY REACHING 16 TO 20 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SWELL
PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND RANGE ON SATURDAY.
THIS LARGE AND MODERATELY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGH
SURF ON W AND NW FACING BEACHES OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS
WEEKEND...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. VERY HIGH SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
DUE TO THE NWLY DIRECTION OF THE SWELL...THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY
WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SWELL OR COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 10 FEET ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS NW OF SANTA CATALINA ISLAND SAT OR SAT NIGHT. ABOVE
NORMAL SURF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH SEAS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS W AND NW OF THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS THRU THIS WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT...AND SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06/2355Z...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF
PACKAGE MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER OR NOT
ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEYS. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE MOST OF THE TAF
SITES MAY NOT HAVE ANY LOW CLOUDS AT ALL. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AT KSMX AND KSBP. THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES STILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ANY LOW
CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR TO OR OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT
MORNING.
KLAX...A GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF NO
OR VERY LITTLE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AIRFIELD BY LATE SAT MORNING.
KBUR...A GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS LOW CLOUDS
THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 10Z MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OF THE AIRFIELD BY 17Z OR SO ON SAT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KLOX 070436
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
835 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW THE SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND STARTS MONDAY...BUT WILL BE
INTERRUPTED BY MIDWEEK WHEN A COLD LOW PRESSURE AREA BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...A VERY WEAK MARINE INVERSION WAS ABOUT
1400 FEET DEEP AT LAX THIS EVENING. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS WERE ALONG AND OFF THE CENTRAL COAST THIS EVENING...AND THESE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND A BIT MORE OVER THIS AREA THRU THE NIGHT. S
OF POINT CONCEPTION...THERE WERE LOW CLOUDS AROUND AND S OF CATALINA
ISLAND AND ALSO PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE PALOS VERDES
PENINSULA. IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK EDDY IS GOING TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP THE MARINE LAYER TO BECOME A BIT BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE SOCAL BIGHT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING INTO
THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND POSSIBLY THE VTU COUNTY COAST LATE. LOW
CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND PUSH INTO THE SLO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS...THE
CUYAMA VALLEY AND THE NORTH AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SBP AND SBA
COUNTY MOUNTAINS BY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE NIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST THIS EVENING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL BAJA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO NW MEXICO
ON SAT. A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE MOST PART SAT THRU SUN...THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON MON
AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THRU MON. IT LOOKS LIKE VARYING
AMOUNTS OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED S
OF POINT CONCEPTION SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING....ESPECIALLY FOR L.A.
COUNTY. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD
PREVAIL IN MANY AREAS SAT THRU MON. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THRU SUN THEN WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS ON MON.
...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER SIBERIA MERGING INTO THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA ON
MON. THIS NEW SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY INTO A NARROW BUT FAIRLY
COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WORKS DOWN THE CA COAST WED OR THU. THE
REASON FOR THE BIG OR IN THAT TIME RANGE IS THE FRIENDLY
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF IS A FULL 24
HRS SLOWER BUT MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF THE DEEPNESS OF THE
LOW. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
OPERATIONAL GFS...A FEW OF ITS MEMBERS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN
SUPPORT THE ECMWF. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED THE COOLING TREND IN THE
FORECAST FROM TUE THROUGH THU...BUT SPREAD THE COOLING OUT MORE
EVENLY IN THAT PERIOD AS OPPOSED TO THE SHARP DROP ON WED THAT WE
PREVIOUSLY HAD GOING. IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN MTN SNOW COME THU...BUT COULD
NOT WARRANT MUCH ABOVE PTCLDY SKIES AND 10 PERCENT POPS WITH THIS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.MARINE...07/0425Z.
VERY LARGE NW SWELL...GENERATED BY A MONSTROUS STORM IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE OUTER WATERS THIS EVENING.
SWELL AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON SATURDAY...WITH COMBINED
SEAS LIKELY REACHING 16 TO 20 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SWELL
PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 17 SECOND RANGE ON SATURDAY.
THIS LARGE AND MODERATELY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL GENERATE HIGH
SURF ON W AND NW FACING BEACHES OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES THIS
WEEKEND...AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. VERY HIGH SEAS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
DUE TO THE NWLY DIRECTION OF THE SWELL...THE BULK OF ITS ENERGY
WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE OUTER WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SWELL OR COMBINED SEAS COULD REACH 10 FEET ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN SECTION OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS NW OF SANTA CATALINA ISLAND SAT OR SAT NIGHT. ABOVE
NORMAL SURF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ON EXPOSED WEST FACING BEACHES OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THOSE LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH SEAS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS W AND NW OF THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS THRU THIS WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT...AND SMALL CRAFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...06/2355Z...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT TAF
PACKAGE MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER OR NOT
ORGANIZED LOW CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEYS. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE MOST OF THE TAF
SITES MAY NOT HAVE ANY LOW CLOUDS AT ALL. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THIS EVENING AT KSMX AND KSBP. THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY TAF SITES STILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ANY LOW
CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR TO OR OFF THE COAST BY LATE SAT
MORNING.
KLAX...A GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT OF NO
OR VERY LITTLE LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AIRFIELD BY LATE SAT MORNING.
KBUR...A GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS LOW CLOUDS
THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 10Z MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD CLEAR OUT
OF THE AIRFIELD BY 17Z OR SO ON SAT.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SETO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
000
FXUS66 KSGX 070431
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
LOCAL FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS IN SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT. GRADUALLY WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN COOLER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO...
ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...THERE WAS AN AREA OF STRATUS OFFSHORE
AND PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. THERE WERE
ALSO A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...MAINLY IN SE SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE 00Z NKX
SOUNDING HAD A VERY WEAK INVERSION BASED NEAR 1800 FT AND SHOWED THE
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN NE WINDS ALOFT CIRCULATING AROUND THE N SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA. ONSHORE GRADIENTS TO THE E WITH
ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL AND WEAK OFFSHORE FROM THE N.
THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO KICK OUT TO THE E
TONIGHT. FLAT W TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW AND A RESIDUAL MARINE
LAYER WILL CAUSE PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS...EXTENDING LOCALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW MAY DEVELOP BY MONDAY WHICH WILL REDUCE THE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS EVEN MORE. THERE WILL BE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS IN W
TO SW WINDS ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MAX TEMPS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT NEAR SEASONAL
INLAND. THE WARMING MONDAY WILL BRING COASTAL TEMPS UP TO NEAR
SEASONAL WITH MAX TEMPS INLAND ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE NW WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND A REDEVELOPING MARINE
LAYER. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GRADUALLY
COOLER WITH MAX TEMPS IN MOST AREAS GETTING ABOUT 4 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
070330Z...SCATTERED COASTAL CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION TO BKN-OVC CLOUD
DECK BTWN 04-09Z WITH BASES WILL FROM 015-020 MSL AND TOPS TO 030.
THE BKN-OVC DECK WILL BREAK UP BTWN 16-19Z SATURDAY WITH PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.
VFR ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...ATKIN
AVIATION...MOEDE
000
FXUS66 KHNX 070415
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
815 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WELL AS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGED TODAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT ROLLED
OVER THE DISTRICT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WERE WARMER TODAY OVER MUCH
OF THE DISTRICT...GRADIENTS BECAME MORE ONSHORE WITH THE UPPER
FLOW IN A MORE ZONAL POSITION. THIS STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR COOLER CONDITIONS TO FILTER INTO THE DISTRICT THIS
WEEKEND...AS TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN TO DROP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR SATURDAY WITH THE EXTREME REACHING 70.
THIS WILL BE A 5 DEG-F DROP WITH LITTLE CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FLOW BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY WITH EVEN MORE WARMING OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH THIS THINKING AS THE REGION
REMAINS DRY. THEREFORE...WILL MAKE NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG THE FIZZLING FRONT ARE MOSTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. SO DESPITE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR-MASS IN
PLACE...TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY ARE GENERALLY AT OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THIS TIME YESTERDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF CLOUDS
TODAY. MAY STILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS OF KERN AND TULARE COUNTY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME THIN
CIRRUS AT TIMES WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THIS WEEKEND THEN WARM SLIGHTLY FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE
PAC NW COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH ITS TRACK FOR
MIDWEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS SHOWED SOME CONSENSUS WITH
MOVING IT INLAND ACROSS NORCAL WEDNESDAY THEN OVER CENTRAL CA
THURSDAY. GFS WAS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF A 549
DM LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OPTED TO RAISE POPS ALONG THE SIERRA THURSDAY TO CLIMO GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO. HOWEVER THE NEWEST RUNS HAVE DIVERGED AGAIN WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF KEEPING THE TROUGH AND ANY MOISTURE OVER NORCAL WED-THURS
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. 18Z GFS STILL TRACKS IT ACROSS
THE SIERRA THURSDAY BUT AS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE WITH LESS MOISTURE.
SO STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT AT LEAST SOME COOLING WILL
OCCUR MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITY IN HAZE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVN/FW...JDB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
000
FXUS66 KMTR 070403
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
803 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:02 PM PST FRIDAY...LOW CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE MONTEREY BAY AREA THIS EVENING BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DRIZZLE HAS ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN THE MARINA
AND MONTEREY AREAS THEREFORE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE DRIZZLE. NVA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THEREFORE EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CEASE BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT.
THE SUN WILL COME OUT TOMORROW HOWEVER COOL ONSHORE FLOW WILL ONLY
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS WELL. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN-STORE AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK
THEREFORE NO FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
IN TERMS OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ENTERING
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. BUOY 14 LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS REPORTING SEAS OF 19 FEET AT 19 SECONDS AND BUOY
13 LOCATED 48 MILES OFF OF BODEGA BAY IS AT 13 FEET AT 19 SECONDS.
SO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:58 PM PST FRIDAY...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WAS
MOVING THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA FRIDAY MID-AFTERNOON. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 01-02Z...OTHERWISE LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOSTLY END BY 00Z. THE FRONT WILL LEAVE BEHIND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ALLOWING MFVR CIGS TO FORM OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCAL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN VALLEYS AND NEAR THE OCEAN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH MID-EVENING...AND THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE MVFR THROUGH THE
EVENING EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 01Z. MVFR CIGS
WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN CLEAR BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOCAL MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN THROUGH 02Z...
IFR CIGS FROM 02Z-08Z...MVFR CIGS FROM 08Z-18Z. CLEAR THEREAFTER.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z. MVFR CIGS FROM
06Z THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:45 AM FRIDAY...LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT. SWELL HEIGHTS TO 20 FEET WITH PERIODS OF 17
SECONDS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...PT. ARENA TO PT. PIEDRAS BLANCAS
AND MRY BAY
...ROUGH BAR FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAR
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY...SONOMA COAST SOUTH THROUGH THE
MONTEREY COUNTY COAST.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA
NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
000
FXUS66 KSTO 070401
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
800 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONT OVER INTERIOR NORCAL BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE ON
SATELLITE HOWEVER MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
MAINTAINING SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEHAMA
COUNTY. 88-D SHOWING RETURNS UP TO 55 DBZ IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST OF I-5 BETWEEN RED BLUFF AND LOS MOLINOS TO
JUST WEST OF MANZANITA LAKE. LOCAL MESOSCALE WRF_NMM MODEL HAS
PICKED UP ON THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SHOWS IT
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM. ELSEWHERE SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS
OCCURRING ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AROUND 6500 FEET AND COULD
LOWER TO AROUND 4500 FEET SATURDAY MORNING. BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN THE VALLEY WITH POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG
TOMORROW MORNING.
BROAD TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER NORCAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAIN
STORM TRACK REMAINING FOCUSED INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT INTERIOR NORCAL LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.
PCH
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ALTHOUGH THE
EXTENDED MODELS APPEARED TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TIMING
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM ON THE EARLIER RUNS...THEY ONCE AGAIN STARTED TO
DIVERGE ON THE 12Z RUNS. THE GFS IS DEFINITELY THE FASTEST
MODEL...DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER...IT
APPEARS TO HAVE DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING SOME
SORT OF WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY...BUT A MAIN TROUGH DOESN`T REALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD GIVE US A
BETTER CHANCE A PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHAT
WILL REALLY HAPPEN...BUT HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS
OVER THE SIERRA CREST ON THURSDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES
WILL MOST LIKELY AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...
WKNG CDFNT OVR INTR NORCAL WL CONT LCL MVFR CONDS IN NRN SAC VLY TIL
ARND 07Z WITH ISOLD IFR/LIFR CONDS IN PTCHY FOG BTWN 12Z-17Z. FOR
MTNS AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS...MNLY OVR SIERNEV IN -SHRA WITH -SHSN
ABV 065 LWRG TO ARND 045 SAT MRNG. CONDS IMPVG OVR MTNS SAT. W-NWLY
FLOW ALF.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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