000
FXUS65 KPUB 082256 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
355 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)

CURRENTLY...WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS AS OF
21Z...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY SWINGING AROUND TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG I-25. STARTING TO SEE JUST A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A COUPLE WEAK HIGH BASED
RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP WEST OF DENVER. MAX TEMPS OVER THE EAST
AVERAGING ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN SATURDAY...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 10F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
STATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRODUCING A THICKENING/LOWERING MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT -SHRA/-SHSN
DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY AT
BEST AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY THE VERY LOW
POPS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MINS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND CURRENT FORECAST IN
GOOD AGREEMENT.

MONDAY...UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE STATE IN THE MORNING...WITH UPSLOPE
WEAKENING AND VERTICAL MOTION DECREASING AFTER 18Z. KEPT THE LOW
POPS GOING MOST AREAS...THOUGH AGAIN LOOKS LIKE LIKE
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH BEST CHANCE OF PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/TELLER COUNTY
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SUSPECT WE`LL GET JUST ENOUGH SUN TO REACH GUIDANCE
MAXES IN THE 40S AND 50S MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH
ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER.  --ETP

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WELL WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BUILDING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH TEMPS ALOFT
SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...HAVE STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ACROSS
THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE ONLY GONE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
WORDING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARM AND BREEZY PATTERN SETTING UP
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVES
OUT ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  WITH WARM AIR ALOFT (4C
TO 8C AT H7) AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS SUPPORTING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD TO SEE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF
I-25. HAVE STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS WELL
WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT
WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC NW SYSTEM AND HAVE CUT
BACK POPS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CLOSER TOGETHER ON PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND LOCATION. AT
ANY RATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
CURRENT PROGGED MOVEMENT WOULD KEEP BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS WITH MAINLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG JET CORE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW AND CENTRAL MTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SLIGHT
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS. IF CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE
TRUE...SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS WELL...IN CASE A SLOWER
SOLUTION EVOLVES. -MW

&&

.AVIATION...WILL SEE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR MOST
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES...THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MVFR AREAS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY W OF I-25 AND OVR
THE RAMPART RANGE AND PALMER DVD BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z...WITH SOME
VERY PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10/23

000
FXUS65 KPUB 082215
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)

CURRENTLY...WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL OF THE PLAINS AS OF
21Z...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY SWINGING AROUND TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG I-25. STARTING TO SEE JUST A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A COUPLE WEAK HIGH BASED
RADAR RETURNS SHOWING UP WEST OF DENVER. MAX TEMPS OVER THE EAST
AVERAGING ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN SATURDAY...WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 10F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

TONIGHT...SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE
STATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRODUCING A THICKENING/LOWERING MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING...WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT -SHRA/-SHSN
DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER 06Z. COVERAGE LOOKS SPOTTY AT
BEST AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY THE VERY LOW
POPS CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP MINS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR...WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND CURRENT FORECAST IN
GOOD AGREEMENT.

MONDAY...UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE STATE IN THE MORNING...WITH UPSLOPE
WEAKENING AND VERTICAL MOTION DECREASING AFTER 18Z. KEPT THE LOW
POPS GOING MOST AREAS...THOUGH AGAIN LOOKS LIKE LIKE
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MOST LOCATIONS...WITH BEST CHANCE OF PERHAPS A
LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT PRECIP OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE/TELLER COUNTY
BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SUSPECT WE`LL GET JUST ENOUGH SUN TO REACH GUIDANCE
MAXES IN THE 40S AND 50S MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH
ABOVE NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER.  --ETP

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WELL WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BUILDING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH TEMPS ALOFT
SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...HAVE STAYED ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG ACROSS
THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE ONLY GONE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
WORDING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...WARM AND BREEZY PATTERN SETTING UP
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CARVES
OUT ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  WITH WARM AIR ALOFT (4C
TO 8C AT H7) AND LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS SUPPORTING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...SHOULD TO SEE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF
I-25. HAVE STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS WELL
WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS COULD BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT
WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC NW SYSTEM AND HAVE CUT
BACK POPS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS ARE CLOSER TO TOGETHER ON PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND LOCATION. AT
ANY RATE...UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. CURRENT
PROGGED MOVEMENT WOULD KEEP BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL MTS WITH MAINLY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG JET CORE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SW
AND CENTRAL MTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS. IF CURRENT PROJECTIONS ARE TRUE...SHOULD
SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS WELL...IN CASE A SLOWER SOLUTION EVOLVES.
-MW

&&

.AVIATION...WILL SEE INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR MOST
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE TAF SITES...THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
MVFR AREAS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY W OF I-25 AND OVR
THE RAMPART RANGE AND PALMER DVD BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z...WITH SOME
VERY PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

10/23

000
FXUS65 KGJT 082208
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
308 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS NEVADA AND UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ARRIVING OVER WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
SHRTWV ENERGY AND WEAK JET SUPPORT WILL KICK OFF A FEW OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS...WHICH LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN STABILIZE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH FLAT RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FLOWING
THROUGH TO KEEP PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST. LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH READINGS CONTINUING TO RUN
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

HAVE DRIED OUT THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST US THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
WIND TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS TROUGH STAYS WEST OF THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF
TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RUN MOVES
SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND TO
A POSITION OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
FORCING OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME. HAVE GONE WITH A BROADBRUSH INCREASE OF POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SYSTEM WILL WIND DOWN ON SATURDAY WITH DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING BY THE LATE WEEKEND. ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF WESTERN COLORADO AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH
LOCAL IFR CIGS AND ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM.....JDC
LONG TERM......MPM
AVIATION.......JDC

000
FXUS65 KBOU 082057
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
230 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL SOME
STRONGER NW SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS...WHILE THE FRONT RANGE HAS BEEN
MORE UNDER A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE WITH A LIGHT SERLY WIND ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SOME WEAK UPSLOPE THIS EVENING BUT WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHEAST LATER TNT. A WEAK WAVE NOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO LATER TNT AND MONDAY AM. THERE IS SOME
WEAK ASCENT NOTED IN THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS BUT UPSTREAM
MOISTURE ALL APPEARS IN THE MID-UPPER LVLS. WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE
SOME MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ON ITS OWN DOWN TO AROUND 750MB THIS
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL
THINK IT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVE THE CURRENT MOISTURE SPARCITY
UPSTREAM. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT 10 POPS ON THE PLAINS BUT VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ANY PRECIP FURTHER EAST. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG
THE DIVIDE AND EAST SLOPES TNT. THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING EAST
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL REMOVE MOST OF THE POPS BY
AFTERNOON. A BIT COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE WAVE.

.LONG TERM...DRIER AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE CWFA ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.  THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A LEE SIDE TROF PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTN.  A MODERATE TO STRONG
SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.  THE LATEST
GFS RUNS SHOWS A DRIER AMS IN PLACE OVER COLORADO FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...AFTN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE LWR TO MID 60S.  WL DELAY THE POPS SOMEWHAT
ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE MTNS AND DELAY THE MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE NERN
PLAINS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.  THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS JUST
AS MUDDLED AS IT WAS TWO DAYS AGO.  THERE IS NO CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MDLS OR THE GFS ENSEMBLES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.  SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLES SWING A TROF ACRS CO ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE OTHER
WAIT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.  WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE
MTNS/SLGT CHC OVER THE NERN PLAINS UNTIL SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS CAN
BE REACHED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU NEXT 24 HOURS BUT MAY SEE CIGS
LOWERING TO 5000-6000FT AGL BETWEEN 02-06Z THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT LOCAL FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS. MAY SEE A STRAY
RAIN SHOWER ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THE LOWER CIGS WILL DISSIPATE.  CURRENT
LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE WILL KEEP A LIGHT SE-E WINDS AT AIRPORTS AND
THESE DIRECTIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF TNT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

KENTREKIN/COOPER

000
FXUS65 KBOU 081103
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
400 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS
PRESENTLY OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING...PRODUCING
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.  AS THIS JET REMAINS
IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BROAD LIFT AND MOISTENING
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE.  BY THIS EVENING WE SHOULD
SEE SOME BANDED PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN AT MID LEVELS...SO LOW POPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MODERATED BACK
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRESENCE OF A
WEAK FRONTAL SURGE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTH BY MID-AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT I DID CUT POPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM 20 PERCENT DOWN TO 10 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MON.  YESTERDAY THE GFS HAD MORE MOISTURE THAN THAN THE NAM BUT
TONIGHT THE ROLES HAVE REVERSED AS THE NAM HAS MORE MOISTURE THEN
THE GFS. THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN EITHER MODEL IS POOR AT BEST
WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL BE.  WILL KEEP A CHC OF
SNOW IN THE MTNS THRU MON MORNING AS THERE STILL WILL BE SOME QG
ASCENT THRU ABOUT 18Z.  OVER NERN CO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FCST TO
BECOME MORE SSE ON MON AS SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SO THERE IS NO UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE.  MEANWHILE BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS KEEP BEST MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE.  LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZEROS DROP TO AROUND 5500 FEET
BY 12Z SO COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX IF ANY SHOWERS DO
DVLP.  HIGHS ON MON WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUN BASED
ON LATEST 850-700 MB TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR TUE AND WED SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA AS A LEE TROUGH
SETS UP OVER NERN CO.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY WED AS SOME MOISTURE GETS
ADVECTED IN FM THE SW.  850-700 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO RISE FROM 5 TO
6 DEGREES C ON TUE AND ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES ON WED.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO RISE ABOVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL BOTH DAYS
OVER NERN CO.

BY THU OR FRI ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY AFFECT
THE AREA.  ONCE AGAIN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
FEATURE MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FM THU NIGHT INTO FRI.  FOR NOW WILL
KEEP A CHC OF POPS IN THE MTNS WITH LOW POPS OVER THE PLAINS.  A
CDFNT WILL LIKELY AFFECT NERN CO EITHER THU AFTN OR THU NIGHT. THUS
HIGHS ON THU WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST FNT MOVES INTO AREA.  IF FNT
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT THEN HIGHS ON THU MAY ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
60S AS DOWNSLOPE SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.  ON FRI TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS POSSIBLY DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 40S ACROSS NERN CO.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH END VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.  AFTER 01Z WE MAY SEE CIGS DROP TO BKN-OVC060-080
ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP.  DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
ALSO SEE WINDS SWITCH TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION DUE TO PASSAGE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT.  PRECIP MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

KDRBY/RPK

000
FXUS65 KGJT 081036
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE OVER SE ID WILL MOVE ACROSS WY THIS MORNING...BRUSHING THE
N. KGJX RADAR AND SFC OBS AT 10Z INDICATED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS NE UT/NW CO AND EXPECT SUCH TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH
AS THAT SHORTWAVE BRUSHES BY. REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT AND WEAK Q-G
FORCING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS STILL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. TEMPS A BIT COOLER TODAY...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS LATER TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET WILL GIVE SUPPORT
FOR A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
THIS BEST SHOWN IN THE NAM. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER MEAGER...SO ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL GENERATE ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH CLEARING ACROSS ERN UT AND
EXTREME WRN CO MON AFTERNOON. RIDGING BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WEAK LITTLE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TUE NIGHT AND WED...WHICH MAY CARRY ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN CO AND
EASTERN UT. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE...WITH CLOUD COVER THE THICKEST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE GFS TRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER SYSTEM IN
THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS...CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. HAVE HELD BACK
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND DECREASED IT WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHICH MAY BE UNDER A DRY SLOT TUE NGT
THROUGH WED NGT.

THURSDAY...THE 00Z GFS HAD THURSDAY AS THE PRIME DAY FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE 06Z RUN CONTINUED TO SHIFT
ITS SOLUTION TO THE SLOWER ECMWF. AGAIN...EMPHASIS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF I-70 WHICH WILL BE UNDER UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH BETTER MOISTURE.
HAVE DECREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP SOUTH OF I-70.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 06Z GFS CAME IN SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS DIGS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST
THU NIGHT AND FRI...PRODUCING A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM OVER THE SW U.S.
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BRING AN
OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BY A DEEPENING LOW THAT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE SINGLE HUGE LOW
OVER AZ SAT. AHEAD AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...PLENTY OF
DYNAMIC LIFT FROM DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND A TAP OF WARM MOISTURE FROM
BAJA IS PROJECTED OVER MUCH OF COLORADO. IF THIS COMES TRUE SAT COULD
BE QUITE CONVECTIVE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW PASSES
EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN MORNING.  WITH SUCH LARGE SWINGS IN SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN...THE END OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE MTS OF
NE UT AND NW CO...WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS AND ISOLD -SHRA/-SHSN POSSIBLE.
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS SHOULD EXPAND TO THE CENTRAL MTS TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM.....JAD
LONG TERM......CJC
AVIATION.......JAD

000
FXUS65 KPUB 081006
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET WX DAY IN STORE FOR TODAY. SOME WAVE CLOUDS
WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORN OVR THE PLAINS...BUT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE A BIT BY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPS
A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE PLAINS TODAY AS TEMPS ALOFT FALL
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH TODAY...WITH H7 TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 3 DEG
OR SO OVR THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COOLING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HOLD MAXES TO THE 60S TODAY.

TONIGHT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. TREND OVR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN FOR LESS AND
LESS QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE IN CUTTING
BACK POPS ESPECIALLY OVR THE LOWER TRRN. BEST SHOT OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVERNIGHT WILL BE OVER LAKE COUNTY AND THE NRN MTN
RANGES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY TELLER COUNTY AND THE PALMER DVD. COULD
SEE SOME LIGHT SN ACCUMS OVR THE SAWATCH AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAMPARTS
BY MON MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH OR
TWO. EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS BY MON MORN LOOKS LIMITED...MAINLY OVR
THE ERN SLOPES AND FAR SERN PLAINS CLOSE TO THE CO AND KS BORDER.
ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

ON MONDAY A WEAK SHRTWV TROF WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA. MSTR ACRS THE
AREA WL BE LIMITED BUT THERE MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS ON MON SHOULD BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. THAT SHRTWV TROF WL MOVE E OF THE AREA MON
NIGHT WITH AN UPR RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE AREA FOR TUE WITH DRY WEA
EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA AND TEMPS WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES. THE UPR
RIDGE WL KEEP THE WEA DRY THROUGH WED NIGHT AND TEMPS ON WED WL BE
A LITTLE WARMER THAN THOSE ON TUE...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 10 DEG F
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU...BUT THE
APPROACH OF A NEW UPR TROF WL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVR
THE FAR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR WED AFTERNOON...WHILE THE REST
OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THE UPR TROF THEN MOVES INTO CO THU NIGHT
AND A FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SE CO PLAINS. PCPN
CHANCES WL INCREASE OVR THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THU NIGHT...AND
THERE WL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS OVR THE ERN MTS. THE
UPR TROF WL MOVE ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI...BRINGING PCPN
CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPS WL ALSO BE COOLER AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL. THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
BY SAT MORNING AND THEN MOVES ACRS NRN NM AND SRN CO DURING THE
DAY SAT...WHICH COULD BRING SOME PCPN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WILL BRING UPSLOPE FLOW TO
THE PLAINS BY TONIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS BY MON
MORNING. DO NOT ANTICIPATE EXTENSIVE LOW CIGS AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES...BUT SOME MVFR AREAS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY W
OF I-25 AND OVR THE RAMPART RANGE AND PALMER DVD TONIGHT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

44/28

000
FXUS65 KPUB 072208
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

CURRENTLY...QUIET DAY OVER THE CWA WITH SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.  SURFACE HIGH CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS.  SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR
WARMING INTO THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...FIRST TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT.
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD...AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

SUNDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ANTICIPATE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THE PLAINS DURING
THE MORNING. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. COLD FRONT WILL ONLY BRING MODEST COOLING TO THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND DO
ANTICIPATE ANY LOWER CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...TROUGH IS RELATIVELY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE
STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ONLY PUT SOME SILENT POPS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. --PGW--

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)

WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND SHALLOW UPSLOPE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE APPEARS TO
BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH MAINLY JUST
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE COOLER
NUMBERS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO EARLY NOVEMBER NORMALS THAN THE WARM
READINGS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY...THEN PUSHES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SLOW
WARMING TREND THUS BEGINS TUESDAY...WITH BREEZY AND WARMER WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS INITIAL PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH A FEW
-SHSN DEVELOPING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD REGARDING EVOLUTION OF WESTERN
TROUGH WITH ECMWF SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE GFS INTO THE WEEKEND.
GIVEN RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW THE PAST COUPLE
WEEKS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AT THIS POINT...AND DOWNPLAY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CUT-OFF AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. INSTEAD...WILL GO WITH A BROADBRUSH OF LOW POPS
AND COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI...THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SAT.
OVERALL...DIDN`T MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE LOWER
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

06/10

000
FXUS65 KBOU 072205
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BANDED
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT PRETTY DRY LOW LEVELS. NAM SEEMS TO
UNDERDO THE HIGHER MOISTURE...BUT IS TOO MOIST AT THE SURFACE.
THREAT FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY LOW...MAINLY NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE MOISTURE...SO LOWERED OR
DROPPED POPS ELSEWHERE. COMBINATION OF A BIT MORE COOLING ALOFT AND
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THOUGH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BOTH MDLS SHOW SOME UPSLOPE
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  THE GFS40
REMAINS THE WETTER MDLS VS THE NAM12.  THE MDLS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT
PASSING ACRS NRN CO IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME...DIMINISHING QG ASCENT
THEN OCCURS ON MONDAY.  THE BEST CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  WL CONTINUE WITH CHC
POPS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS AT THAT TIME WITH JUST SLGT CHC POPS
ELSEWHERE.  CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY.  ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SUBSIDENT AMS WILL BE AN PLACE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE.  NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED
FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH PLENTY OF INCONSISTENCIES STILL
PRESENT.  THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING
SWLY FLOW OVR CO.  THE NEXT TROF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.  MSTR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE IN THE MTNS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW THEN.  THE TROF SPLITS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROF MOVING INTO CO ON
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.  SOLUTIONS VARY GREATLY IN THE GFS ENSEMBLES
FOR FRIDAY.  OTHER RUNS CLOSE THE TROF OVER CA FRIDAY...LIKE YDA/S
RUN DID...WHILE OTHERS MAINTAIN AN OPEN WAVE AND SWING IT ACROSS THE
STATE ON FRIDAY.  TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO BE ADDING TOO MANY
SPECIFICS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  WL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT HOLD OFF ADDING ADDITIONAL POPS TO THE
GRIDS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WIND
DIRECTION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONT DROPS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...BUT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

CMG/FMC

000
FXUS65 KGJT 072141
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
241 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A WEAK SFC FRONT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. APPROACHING SHRTWV ENERGY
WILL WORK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS...
GENERALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BETTER PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVES AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHED THE REGION FROM
THE PACNW. NOSE OF WEAK 60 KT JET AND PASSING H3 TROUGH WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE DIVIDE IN WESTERN
COLORADO. STILL NOT A HUGE PUSH OF MOISTURE...SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST THROUGH
MONDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH MONDAY READINGS SIMILAR
TO THOSE WE SEE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRACKS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
AXIS MOVING JUST EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY TUESDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT
WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN. THE
ATMOSPHERE STAYS RELATIVELY DRY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH JUST
ENTERING THE PAC NORTHWEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AS A FEW DISTURBANCES FLOW OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH KEEPING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODELS NOW HAVE THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FORM THE
PAC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY...AND OVER EASTERN UT MID TO LATE DAY ON
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST AND EXIT THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE THE GENERAL PATTERN ALTHOUGH
TIMING AND DETAILS ARE MUCH DIFFERENT AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP
CURRENT TREND IN FORECAST WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THE FARTHER OUT
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CIGS LOWERING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.
AREAS MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AFTER 08Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM.....JDC
LONG TERM......AS
AVIATION.......TGJT

000
FXUS65 KBOU 071056
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
350 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WERE NEEDED.  DRY
AND MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE
WEAK...RESULTING IN TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND FIELDS.  TEMPERATURES AT
LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...SO HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.  STILL QUITE NICE FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER.  ZERO POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND ONLY OCCASIONAL MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SUN WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE BY AFTN IN THE MTNS WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  OVER NERN CO A FNT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING A 5-6 DEGREE C DROP IN 700-850 TEMPS
AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DVLPS.  THUS SHOULD SEE 10-12 DEGREE DROP IN
HIGHS OVER NERN CO.  FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MINIMAL QG ASCENT.  NAM AND
GFS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE GFS IS
WETTER AND THE NAM DRIER. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS IN THE
MTNS WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.  850-700 MB
TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES C ON MON WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR THE PLAINS.

BY TUE AND WED SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ON TUE.  ON WED THE GFS SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL
MOISTURE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN SO WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS BUT CONTINUE
DRY FCST OVER THE PLAINS.  850-700 MB TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ONCE
AGAIN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER NERN CO.

FOR THU AND FRI THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS ON THE 00Z RUNS.  THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHEARING APART AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL
HANGING BACK OVER NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA.  AT THIS POINT ITS
CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR WHICH IF ANY SOLUTION IS CORRECT SO WILL NOT
ALTER PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...NO AVIATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.  ONLY
INTERMITTENT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AND THE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

KDRBY/RPK

000
FXUS65 KPUB 071042
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
342 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER THIS MORNING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.
WINDS STILL QUITE STRONG ABOVE 10K FEET...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND
45 MPH.

TODAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BE WEST SOUTHWEST...BUT WINDS WILL
SLOW...WITH NAM12 SHOWING 700MB WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20 MPH.
700MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S
READINGS. SO...ANOTHER PLEASANT NOVEMBER DAY ON TAP.  HIGHS
ANTICIPATED TO BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE RECORDS...WITH
THOSE RECORDS BEING 67 IN ALAMOSA...77 IN COLORADO SPRINGS...AND 84
IN PUEBLO.  WHILE MID-AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT FOR A FEW
HOURS...WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT GET CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. IN
FACT...WEAK LA JUNTA CYCLONE SHOWS UP IN THE NAM12...SO WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...LOOKING AT ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...AND READINGS ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE PLAINS. -TLM-


.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

LATEST NAM RUN IS A LITTLE QUICKER IN BRINGING A WEAK FRONT
THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPS AT H7 SHOULD FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A NRLY COMPONENT BY MID DAY. HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPS
ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WHICH IS GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR
THE PLAINS.

COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES SUN NIGHT INTO MON...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN SLOPES AND PIKES PK REGION. MODELS CONTINUE
TO LOOK RELATIVELY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH JUST LIGHT QPF POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN MTS AND ERN MTS ESPECIALLY MON. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SN ACCUMS OVR THE HYR ELEVS. LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND OVER THE ERN
SLOPES AND HYR TRRN W OF I-25 THROUGH TUE MORNING...AND IT SHOULD
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THRU TUE OVR THE PLAINS.

A BIT OF A WARM UP FOR MID WEEK...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING SWRLY FLOW. SHOULD SEE SOME
RESPECTABLE OROGRAPHIC SNOWS OVR THE DVD BEGINNING LATE WED AND
LASTING THRU THE END OF THE WK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER
AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND
IS FOR COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WK. ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. -TLM-


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/44

000
FXUS65 KGJT 071006
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
306 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

BROAD CYCLONIC AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXCEPTION WILL BE A PERIOD OF W-NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NE UT LATE
TODAY AND MOVE SE ACROSS WESTERN CO TONIGHT. 700 MB FRONT STALLS OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...WHERE ITS
REMNANTS THEN LINGER THROUGH SUN. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW AND MAINLY CONFINED NORTH OF HWY 50 TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT WHEN WHEN THE
300 MB TROUGH AXIS REACHES THE AREA. MILD TEMPS AGAIN TODAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH DROPPING MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS FROM
FRI. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.

BREEZY WINDS ACROSS NE UT AND NW CO TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AS THE SUNDAY TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY...CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST. GFS/NAM/EC
AGREE WITH THIS PROJECTION SO HAVE PLACED THE PRECIPITATION EMPHASIS
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE CO MTS EAST OF CRAIG...RIFLE...MONTROSE...AND
DURANGO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE THE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TUE SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THE
TRANSITORY RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET...SO TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
A ODDS IN TIMING THE NEXT TROUGH. THE GFS MOVES A MODERATE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THROUGH GREAT BASIN TUE NIGHT AND WED...AND THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO WESTERN CO WED NIGHT AND THUR. THE ECMWF SLOWS
THE FRONT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WED AND THU AND DOES NOT BRING IT
THROUGH EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO UNTIL THU AND FRI. AT THIS POINT IT
A BIT TOUGH TO DETERMINE WHICH MODEL`S TIMING IS BEST. HAVE KEPT THE
MID TO LATE WEEK GRIDS UNCHANGED WITH MID-RANGE PRECIP CHANCE WED
THRU FRI.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH APPEARS IN THE LATE PERIODS...SO HAVE LEFT
MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GRIDS WITH DECREASING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. CIGS LOWERING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. AREAS
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AFTER 05Z.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM.....JAD
LONG TERM......CJC
AVIATION.......JAD