000
FXUS65 KGJT 222237 CCA
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
337 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER NRN UT THIS AFTN CAUSING
SCTD SNOW-SHOWERS ACROSS SRN ID/NRN UT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS UT TRAILING INTO NV SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY.  ANTICIPATE
CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN WITH SOME SNOWFALL OVER
ERN UINTAS THOUGH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  ALL MODELS...
NAM12/GFS40/SREF/ECMWF...IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT AS STORM MOVES OVER
CWA LATER TONIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LINES UP VERY WELL FOR PRECIP
OVR CENTRAL/NRN MTNS AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET APPROACHES...THEN
MOVES OVER AREA. NAM12 18Z RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE TWO STRONG VORT
MAXES ROTATING THRU MEAN FLOW OVR SAME AREA AS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...DECENT QG FORCING SHOWING UP OVR NRN/CENT MTNS AND
FINALLY...H7 WIND FLOW FROM THE NW WILL AID OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  ALL OF
THESE INGREDIENTS ENSURE SOME SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
ELKHEAD PARK/GORE RANGE/ELK/FLATTOP RANGES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7
INCHES...POSSIBLY 8 INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THUS...WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTN VALID MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THRU
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW HIGHLIGHTING THIS SNOWFALL. REMAINING CWA WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES...MOSTLY TO THE N OF I-70 WITH SOME CLOUDS
TO THE S.

SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...A SUNNY AND MILD THANKSGIVING...

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
PROGRESSES OVER THIS FORECAST AREA BY THANKSGIVING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BRING INCREASED DIURNAL SPREAD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INVADE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL.

FRIDAY: THE PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO IDAHO BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SW GRADIENT WINDS OVER THIS FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THESE PERIODS FOR
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND THEREFORE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SHOOTING THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE EC/CANADIAN SLIDE THE LOW SWRD LEAVING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CUTOFF ENERGY IN ARIZONA. THEN THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEAKER TROUGH PASSES ON SUNDAY. THIS LATTER SOLUTION LOOKS
MORE LIKELY WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN FAVORED. FOR THIS FORECAST...
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MENTIONED IN THE MTNS OF NE UTAH FRIDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY...SPREADING TO ALL THE MTNS AND EVEN THE NW CO
PLATEAUS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN.  AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CIGS WILL DROP AT ALL TAF SITES THOUGH
ONLY KASE AND KEGE WILL FALL BELOW VFR.  BY MIDNIGHT...SNOW OVER
THOSE TWO SITES WILL DROP CIGS TO BELOW 1K FT AND CIGS TO BETWEEN 1
TO 3 MILES...POSSIBLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SNOW.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS SUPPORT CONTINUES SNOWFALL OVER NRN/CENTRAL
MTNS.  REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS BUT CLOUD BASES
WELL ABOVE 5K FT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TGR
LONG TERM......JOE
AVIATION.......TGR

000
FXUS65 KPUB 222230
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)

UPPER TROF FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS NRN CO TONIGHT.  MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  STRONGEST
UPPER LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FROM 09Z TO 15Z...PROVIDING
AROUND A 6 HOUR WINDOW OF OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED NORTHWEST
FLOW...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND SATURATION THROUGH THE -12 TO -18C
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWN ZONE.  SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE...TO
HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE MOSQUITO RANGE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SAWATCH RANGE...MAINLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS.  GRIDS ARE
GIVING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH 18Z ON
MON...WHICH JUST CROSSES INTO THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR
NOW DON/T THINK THE WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE MET
ACROSS ENOUGH OF ZONES 60 AND 58 TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
HIGHLIGHT...WITH THE BREVITY OF THE EVENT BEING THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR.  THUS...WILL BUMP UP POPS AND ADD SOME MENTION TO THE HWO
THAT TRAVEL COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE HIGHER PASSES IN THOSE
AREAS.

AFTER 18Z...TROF IS QUICKLY EJECTING INTO THE NRN/CEN PLAINS AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS NW KS/SW NE. COLD FRONT WILL RACE
THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 35
MPH CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
GOES...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS...BUT MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER
QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH MOST OF SE
CO UNDER THE DRY DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE STORM.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION COUNTERING THE MIXING BEHIND THE
FRONT.  WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLER
MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES.  MEANWHILE...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION.  WHILE THE MAIN AFFECT FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE COOLER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME.
-KT


.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

PRIMARY LONGER TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
LINGERING SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FOR NOW HAVE PAINTED ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM 00Z TO 07Z
TUESDAY.

LATEST LONGER TERM MODELS THEN INDICATE THAT DRY NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWFA FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO UPPER RIDGING FROM LATER THANKSGIVING
DAY INTO FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY
INCLUDES DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
EASTERN SECTIONS FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN
AGAIN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW THEN DEVELOPS DURING BY NEXT WEEKEND
AS UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS REGION. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND
INCLUDES DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING POPS BY NEXT
SUNDAY AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH NEXT 24 HRS AS MAIN
SYSTEM PASSES TOO FAR OFF TO THE NORTH TO BE A BIG PLAYER IN
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CO.  MAIN AFFECT WILL BE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES AFTER 09Z.  BRIEF GUSTY NORTH WINDS 10-20 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH
FROPA WITH WINDS INCREASING MONDAY MORNING AT 15-30 KTS.  WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH LATE AFTN.

KALS WILL SEE LESS AFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
THOUGH COULD SEE THE WESTERN EDGE OF SCT-BKN090 LAYER GLANCE BY TO
THE EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

MEANWHILE...CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KGJT 222229
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
329 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FINAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER NRN UT THIS AFTN CAUSING
SCTD SNOW-SHOWERS ACROSS SRN ID/NRN UT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS UT TRAILING INTO NV SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY.  ANTICIPATE
CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN WITH SOME SNOWFALL OVER
ERN UINTAS THOUGH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  ALL MODELS...
NAM12/GFS40/SREF/ECMWF...IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT AS STORM MOVES OVER
CWA LATER TONIGHT.  UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LINES UP VERY WELL FOR PRECIP
OVR CENTRAL/NRN MTNS AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET APPROACHES...THEN
MOVES OVER AREA. NAM12 18Z RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE TWO STRONG VORT
MAXES ROTATING THRU MEAN FLOW OVR SAME AREA AS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...DECENT QG FORCING SHOWING UP OVR NRN/CENT MTNS AND
FINALLY...H7 WIND FLOW FROM THE NW WILL AID OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  ALL OF
THESE INGREDIENTS ENSURE SOME SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR
ELKHEAD PARK/GORE RANGE/ELK/FLATTOP RANGES ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 7
INCHES...POSSIBLY 8 INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THUS...WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTN VALID MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THRU
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW HIGHLIGHTING THIS SNOWFALL. REMAINING CWA WILL SEEM
SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES...MOSTLY TO THE N OF I-70 WITH SOME CLOUDS
TO THE S.

THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...A SUNNY AND MILD THANKSGIVING...

TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
PROGRESSES OVER THIS FORECAST AREA BY THANKSGIVING. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL BRING INCREASED DIURNAL SPREAD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INVADE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL.

FRIDAY: THE PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS INTO IDAHO BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SW GRADIENT WINDS OVER THIS FORECAST AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THESE PERIODS FOR
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND THEREFORE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SHOOTING THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE EC/CANADIAN SLIDES THE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD LEAVING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CUTOFF IN ARIZONA...
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAKER TROUGH PASSING ON SUNDAY. THIS
LATTER SOLUTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
FAVORED. FOR THIS FORECAST...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW MENTIONED
IN THE MTNS OF NE UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SPREADING TO ALL
THE MTNS AND EVEN THE NORTHERN PLATEAUS SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN.  AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CIGS WILL DROP AT ALL TAF SITES THOUGH
ONLY KASE AND KEGE WILL FALL BELOW VFR.  BY MIDNIGHT...SNOW OVER
THOSE TWO SITES WILL DROP CIGS TO BELOW 1K FT AND CIGS TO BETWEEN 1
TO 3 MILES...POSSIBLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SNOW.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS SUPPORT CONTINUES SNOWFALL OVER NRN/CENTRAL
MTNS.  REMAINING TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS BUT CLOUD BASES
WELL ABOVE 5K FT.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TGR
LONG TERM......JOE
AVIATION.......TGR

000
FXUS65 KBOU 222218
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
317 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN BY SATELLITE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SURFACE DATA INDICATING FRONT JUST NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST
COLORADO...WITH CURRENT RADAR INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION STILL IN
UTAH. MODELS STILL INDICATE TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO
OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE FRONT REACHING FRONT RANGE AROUND 11Z.
MOISTURE TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH
CROSS SECTIONS HOLDING OFF ON THE DEEPER MOISTURE UNTIL AFTER 06Z
WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH. OROGRAPHICS BECOME FAVORABLE AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 C/KM...7H WINDS OF 20KTS...AND 7H TEMPS AROUND -7C... LOCAL
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL THROUGH AROUND 15Z MONDAY YIELDS ROUGHLY 3 TO
7 INCHES FOR ZONES 31..33 AND 34 WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ZONE 31.
THOUGH DYNAMICS COULD ADD A FEW MORE INCHES...AMOUNTS STILL LOOK
BELOW ADVISORY NUMBERS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HILITES. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MOUNTAINS IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS QG DESCENT MOVES
OVER AREA. DESPITE CONTINUED OROGRAPHICS...DESCENT WILL LIMIT
SNOWFALL. CURRENT TREND OF LOWER POPS FOR AFTERNOON STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE. AS FOR PLAINS...QG ASCENT INCREASES AFTER 06Z AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. BUT MODELS SHOW LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND
COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...
SNOW CHANCES LOOK LIMITED. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT LOW POPS FOR PLAINS
GOING FOR MOST OF AREA LATE TONIGHT MONDAY. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG
THE NORTHERN COLORADO BORDER INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER IN VICINITY
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS. TROUGH MOVES ONTO PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON... WITH QG ASCENT WEAKENING AND DOWNWARD MOTION TAKING
HOLD. LATEST NAM STILL INDICATING SURFACE WINDS TRYING TO GO UPSLOPE
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON....
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...THE DOWNWARD
MOTION PREVAILS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOW CHANCES. STILL THAT SMALL
THREAT FOR SNOW...FEEL THE 20 PERCENT POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.
TEMPERATURE AND THICKNESS PROGS AS WELL AS GUIDANCE  SUGGEST HIGHS
ROUGHLY AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS PLAINS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW AN UPPER CLOSED LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING AT 00Z.  STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE FLOW
ALOFT DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY AND BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND BECOMES MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN AS A WAVE MOVES DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  PRETTY STRONG DOWNWARD
MOTION IS INDICATED ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION IS PROGGED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS ARE SHOWING
DOWNSLOPING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FOR MOISTURE
...THERE IS SOME AROUND MONDAY EVENING.  THEN IT IS QUITE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE ONLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS IS ON THE GFS MONDAY EVENING...AND
IT IS A TINY AMOUNT.  WILL GO WITH LIMITED POPS IN THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY.
CONCERNING HIGH WINDS...THERE IS A BIT OF A MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE
LAYER PROGGED TUESDAY.  THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FAIR...BUT THE DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ARE NOT GREAT...NOR IS
THE CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT.  NO WIND EVENT EXPECTED.  FOR
TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 3-4 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S.
WEDNESDAY`S WARM UP 1.0-2.5 C FROM TUESDAY`S.  FOR THE LATER DAYS
...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE GFS HAS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PUSH ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF
AN UPPER LOW AND DROPS DOWN INTO ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  THE GFS KEEPS US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  WILL KEEP IT DRY UNTIL SUNDAY...WITH ONLY
MINIMAL POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT ABOVE NORMALS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...WITH LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY SHOULD PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH 5000-6000 FEET AGL CEILINGS
COULD AFFECT ILS APPROACHES. SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
AROUND 11Z WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST. TROUGH TO
EXIT AREA AFTER 18Z MONDAY...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING. STILL A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...NO ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SURFACE WINDS COULD GO NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT DOWNWARD MOTION BEHIND
EXITING TROUGH SHOULD LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

D-L/RJK

000
FXUS65 KPUB 221059
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
359 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
A NORTH SOUTH SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF AXIS...NORTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS.

TODAY...TROF AXIS WILL EXIT EASTERN COLORADO EARLY IN THE DAY.  IN
ITS WAKE...WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH NORTH
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
CELSIUS LOWER...SO INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 40S TO MID 50S PLAINS
AND HIGH VALLEYS AND 20S AND 30S MOUNTAINS LOOKS GOOD.  HAVE LEFT SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN THE HIGH REACHES OF THE LAKE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A
STRETCH.

TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE FORECAST BY NAM12 TO MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  TROF
AXIS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
THIS SYSTEM IS MORE POTENT THAN THE LAST...SO SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT.  BUMPED UP THE POPS TO 50 PERCENT AND GREATER ACROSS THE
SAWATCH RANGE.  A COUPLE INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE BY MORNING ABOVE
11K FEET AND A DUSTING BELOW THAT...INCLUDING LEADVILLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGH VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS...WITH 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS. -TLM-

.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

MONDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT NOW ON THE EXPECTED PATH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. MON MORNING THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD THRU WESTERN CO...QUICKLY REACHING THE SE
CORNER OF NEBRASKA BY EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS PATH KEEPS THE BRUNT
OF POSSIBLE PCPN TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...THO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE OCNLY GUSTY NW WINDS AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPS...5-7 DEG C OF COOLING AT 700 AND 850 MB AS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY. THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES...WITH A POSSIBLE
QUICK 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW THERE.

TUESDAY...WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING TO THE EAST...BRISK N-NW FLOW
ALOFT SETTLES IN FOR COLORADO...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING DISTURBANCE
CROSSING CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE TUE. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE TOO FAR NORTH TO TRULY AFFECT THE STATE...BUT EXPECT TUE
TO BE ONE MORE COOL DAY FOR THE STATE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WED AND THU...THEN ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
APPROACHES AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE. RIGHT NOW...EXTENDED MODELS KEEP
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY AND WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY ON
THANKSGIVING FOR TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT. DO NOT
THINK RESTRICTING CEILINGS OR -SHSN WILL REACH KCOS LATER TONIGHT.
-TLM-

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/27

000
FXUS65 KGJT 221050
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
350 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SNOW HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IT WILL END THIS
SIDE OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. THEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
AS FLAT RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WIGGLE THAT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH CLOUDS
THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THESE CLOUDS ALMOST TO OUR
WESTERN BORDER AT 0300 MST. THEN BY THE AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO THICKEN...MAINLY NORTH...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BE STRONGER/COLDER AND A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH. SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES OUR NORTHWEST CORNER. THEN
SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF DURING THE EVENING...
QUICKLY BECOMING LIKELY OVER THE PARK...GORE AND FLATTOPS RANGES AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS...ACCOMPANIED BY THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST INSTABILITY...SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT SNOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTH AND A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS WITH 3-5 INCHES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ACTIVITY WILL ALREADY BE
DIMINISHING AS THE TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AND STABILITY INCREASES. THEREFORE DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY HILITES FOR NOW. HOWEVER IF THIS MORNINGS
SNOW AMOUNTS COME IN HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...THE DAY SHIFT MAY WANT TO
RECONSIDER...SINCE TONIGHTS STORM WILL BE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COME IN LOWER THAN SATURDAYS DUE TO
COOLING BEHIND LAST NIGHTS WAVE AND THE IMPENDING CLOUDS. HOWEVER
TONIGHTS LOWS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE MILD SIDE AS THE UPCOMING
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVERHEAD. MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE STORM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY.  TUESDAY WILL BE COOL IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH...BUT TEMPS WILL SLOWLY REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.  THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE FROM FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER...THE GFS SHOWING STRONG WESTERLY FLOW (BUT KEEPS US
DRY?) WHILE THE EC SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE CURRENT
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH DAY
7 UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW IMPROVED CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR CIGS OVER PARTS OF NW COLORADO WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING
TO VFR.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BUT EXPECT
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH SNOW INCREASING OVER PARTS OF NW COLORADO AND THE NRN
MOUNTAINS...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS MONARCH PASS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....EH
LONG TERM......PF
AVIATION.......PF

000
FXUS65 KBOU 220952
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
250 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...CLEARING NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WITH THE 600-400MB TROUGH AXIS ABOUT TO PASS OVER THE FRONT
RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR ACCORDING TO LOCAL PROFILER NETWORK. REGIONAL
RADAR NETWORK IS STILL INDICATING A SMATTERING OF LIGHT SNOW UP
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA/SN ACROSS
THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE. MOST OF THIS PCPN DOES NOT APPEAR TO
REACHING THE GROUND WITH PREVAILING CIGS AT OR ABOVE 8 THSND FT AGL
AND TEMP/DEWPT TEMP SPREADS OF 4-6C ACCORDING TO SFC OBS. BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS SHOULD SEE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS SPOTTY PCPN EITHER
DISSIPATING OR EXITING THE CWA BY SUNRISE.

LOOKING TO THE NEXT WX SYSTEM UPSTREAM OVER THE SNAKE RIVER AND NRN
GREAT BASINS AT THIS TIME. BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUD OUT RACING THIS
SYSTEM AND NOW PASSING OVER IDAHO AND UTAH SHOULD REACH THE FRONT
RANGE SOMETIME BETWEEN 16-18Z THIS MORNING. COULD SEE MORE MTN WAVE
CLOUD DVLPMNT AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER ITS NOT UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN
PCPN BREAKS OUT ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
OVER WASHINGTON/OREGON RACES SWRD OVER WYOMING/NWRN COLORADO. NAM
AND GFS SHOW A SATURATED COLUMN UP THRU 500MBS...700MB TEMP OF
-8C...MEAN 700-500MB LAPSE RATE OF -8C/KM...AND 20-30KT W-SWLY 700
FLOW OVER THE NRN MTNS MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS RIDGETOP FLOW SHIFTS FM
SWLY TO W-NWLY AROUND 06Z/MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
COULD SEE A FEW HRS OF 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL RATES ON RIDGETOPS AND
WINDWARD SLOPES. LOCAL OROGRAPHIC MODEL USING WX PARAMETERS GIVEN
ABOVE CAME UP WITH SNOW TOTALS RANGING FM 3-7 INCHES IN MTN ZONES
31..33..34 BY 12Z/MONDAY. COULD SEE A BIT MORE THAN THAT ON WINDWARD
SLOPES NORTH OF I-70 WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BEST 700-400MB QG ASCENT.
THESE AMOUNTS ARE BELOW ADVSY CRITERIA BUT ONE MAY BECOME NECESSARY
IF MTN TOP FLOW STRENGTHENS AS THE NAM SUGGESTS. COULD SEE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ON THE NRN MTN PASSES SUCH AS CAMERON...RABBIT EARS AND
BERTHOUD PASSES.

EAST OF THE MTNS...W-NWLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WIDENING SFC TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS COUPLED WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALL POINT TO A DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. ALTHOUGH
MAY SEE A FEW LOWER 50S IN THE DENVER AREA. BY TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE
CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE BUT MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND QPF FIELDS
INDICATE A LACK OF PCPN ON THE PLAINS EXCEPT PERHAPS OUT ACROSS THE
NERN CORNER OF THE STATE TOWARDS DAWN. CURRENT FCST HAS LIKELY POPS
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND LOW POPS ON THE PLAINS GENERALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BASED ON WHAT WE KNOW NOW...WILL RAISE POPS BY
10-20PCT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WHILE LOWER POPS A SHADE ON THE PLAINS
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NERN CORNER WHERE 20-30PCT POPS APPEAR TO BE IN
ORDER.

.LONG TERM...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ATTM AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COLORADO LATE TNT
AND MONDAY BEFORE CLOSING OFF ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY.  MODELS
ARE SIMILAR BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WHERE THE NAM IS SLOWER
AND DEEPER WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE. EITHER WAY...THE MOUNTAINS WILL BENEFIT THE MOST WITH A
PERIOD OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE WILL BECOMING MORE SHALLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST OROGRAPHICS WILL SPELL A FEW MORE INCHES OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DECENT UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITIES ACROSS NRN CO THRU MON MORNING HOWEVER...NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A BIT CONCERNED WITH
THE NAM...THAT WINDS TRY AND GO UPSLOPE A BIT OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN WY. NAM QPF SHOWING SOME
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF NERN CO. WITH LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT THERE
IS STILL SOME THREAT OF SNOW OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. HAVE BUMPED POPS
UP SLIGHTLY FOR NOW.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES INTO COLORADO FOR TUESDAY FOR DRY
CONDITIONS. BEYOND THAT...A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY BRUSH NERN CO WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPS AND MORE
CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
RISING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PREVAILING WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW ENOUGH REASON TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AT
DENVER AREA AIRPORTS UNTIL 12Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE IN ORDER FOR THE DENVER AREA UNTIL 06Z/MONDAY.
WILL SEE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM RACING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY LATE
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL TO EFFECT OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF
LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. AT
THIS TIME...SNOW ACCUMULATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE DENVER AREA
PRIOR TO 12Z/MONDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

BAKER/ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KGJT 212155
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
300 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SECOND OF THREE DISTURBANCES JUST
ENTERING CWA OVR ERN UT ATTM.  LATEST 20Z SFC OBS NOT SHOWING ANY
PRECIP OVER CENTRAL UT CURRENTLY.  EVEN SO...KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERY
PRECIP FOR EXTREME NERN UT/NWRN CO AND CENTRAL MTNS THIS EVENING AS
MODELS DO HIGHLIGHT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME MINOR PRECIP.  SMALL
REPRIEVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BTWN OPEN WAVES UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTN/EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS DOWN.

APPROXIMATELY 100KT JET DIGS DOWN OVR INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LEAVING
UT/CO IN DIV SECTOR...OR AREA OF FAVORABLE UPWARD MOTION...AND AS
JET CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD...CHC FOR PRECIP INCREASES WITH
PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT. PREVIOUS GRIDS CAUGHT THIS THINKING VERY
WELL WITH CHC TO SCHC SNOW NOON SUNDAY THRU AFTN MONDAY SO MADE
ALMOST NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP POPS FOR
CEN/NRN MTNS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BTWN 3 TO
4 INCHES ABOVE 5000FT OR SO. REMAINING AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEEN LATELY DUE TO INCD
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A DRYING NWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT AS EXITING UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GRT BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED TUE AND WED WITH RIDGE TO OUR WEST PRODUCING A GENERALLY
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE MAY BE A FEW CLOUDS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH...OTHERWISE FAIR CONDITIONS AMD MILD TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE LINE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER OUR CWA THURSDAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS CONTINUING...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE EC SHOWING A
DIGGING TROUGH INTO NEVADA AND UTAH.  THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A SHORT
WAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE BUT KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY.  NO
CHANGES TO THE DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE AREA FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.  SOME SNOWSHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING
AND TOMORROW MAY CAUSE SOME IFR...POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR...DUE TO
DROPPING VIS AND LOWERED CIGS IN HEAVIER SNOWSHOWERS.  KEGE AND KASE
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE SNOWSHOWERS WHILE REMAINING TAF SITES
SHOULD SAY ABOVE VFR.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TGR
LONG TERM......MC
AVIATION.......TGR

000
FXUS65 KBOU 212143
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
243 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...LATEST RUC QG ANALYSES INDICATE STRENGTHENING ASCENT
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER UTAH.  CLOUDS ARE ALSO
THICKENING IN RESPONSE TO THIS LIFT.  ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR
WITH THIS FEATURE...DRAGGING IT ACROSS THE CWA BY 18Z SUNDAY.  THEY
ALSO ALL BRING SOME QPF IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER EAST OF THE HILLS
OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS PREDICTED BY THE 12Z NAM
AROUND DENVER SEEM OUT TO LUNCH.  WILL BUMP PLAINS POPS UP JUST A
LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TONIGHT/S
WAVE IS RATHER SHORT-LIVED IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH ASCENT FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM GRADUALLY ENCROACHING INTO THOSE LOCALES OF THE CWA
AFTER 18Z.  THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO LIFT A BIT OF MOISTURE IN ZONE
31 TO CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.  WARMER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER TOMORROW AS COLD AIR DRAGS ITSELF OVER THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO PUSH RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE
OVER NEBRASKA BY MONDAY.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WITH
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SNOW AND 1-4 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THEN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THERE
IS STILL A RISK THAT THE STORM COULD DIG A BIT MORE THAN INDICATED
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY STILL SEEN OUT IN THE PACIFIC...SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SNOW WORDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER ON MONDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION SUPPORTING HIGHS CLOSER TO 40F...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
40 KNOT GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO AS STORM
SYSTEM WINDS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

BY TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS FLOW SLOWLY
RELAXES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO KEEP COOLER READINGS IN PLACE
THROUGH THEN...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.  THIS FRONT APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE.  BY THANKSGIVING...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY.  BY NEXT WEEKEND...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS BY THE MEDIUM
RANGE ENSEMBLES THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT FROM AROUND 06Z TO AROUND 13Z.  LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM ANY SHOWERS THAT MAKE IT OFF THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY BE IMPACTED TO DISALLOW VISUAL
APPROACHES FOR A BIT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

ET/BARJENBRUCH

000
FXUS65 KPUB 212132
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
232 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
NRN U.S. ROCKIES.  STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UT...EASTERN ID...AND WRN WY ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE.
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE CEN MTS TOWARDS 00Z...EXPECT TO
SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MTS...AIDED BY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW.  AN INCH OR
TWO OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BEST ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...LEE TROF HAS STAYED PINNED UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE SE MTS THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS STILL RATHER LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PLAINS.  WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY
AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING SYSTEM WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS REPORTED AT
MYP.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MTS TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY UP IN WY WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 06Z.  12Z
NAM WAS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PIKES PEAK/NRN EL PASO
COUNTY TONIGHT AROUND 06Z.  HOWEVER...LATEST NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON
THIS.  WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED LOW GRADE ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS
AREA. ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE WILL BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL
STAY DRY WITH ONLY SOME PASSING WAVE CLOUDINESS.

UPPER TROF WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD
SEE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.  IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE DRY.  HAVE HUNG ON TO SOME
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO
RANGES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN
FAVORABLE NORTHWEST OROGRAPHIC FLOW. -KT


.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

LONGER TERM COMPUTER MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF NEBRASKA BY 00Z
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING OFF INTO ILLINOIS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

THIS PROJECTED PATH WILL ALLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA TO REMAIN
DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS(ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS) AND FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EVENING AND HAVE PAINTED GENERALLY LOW GRADE POPS
THESE AREAS.

AT THIS WRITING...EXPECT THAT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY
EXPERIENCE UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHER THAN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SNOW...PRIMARY SENSIBLE
WEATHER WITH THIS PASSING SYSTEM WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL
AS GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST TO
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE CWFA AS UPPER RIDGING
SETS UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AT TO ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES MOST AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY IN
COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS CWFA-WIDE. LATEST ECMWF STILL
SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK/DRY NORTHERLY SURGE MAY PUSH ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT SOME
CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WFO PUEBLO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FINALLY...12Z/21ST GFS40 SUGGESTS THAT DRY AND MILD PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE 12Z/21ST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT
UPPER SYSTEM ROTATES ACROSS REGION BY NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY NEXT SATURDAY. HAVE STARTED
TRENDING GRIDS/ZONES TO SHOW INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AROUND 00Z
AND MOVE THROUGH KPUB BY 03Z.  SOME BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY FROPA AND LAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.  THINK ANY
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...IF THEY OCCUR...WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF
KCOS...THEREFORE WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY -SHSN TO THE KCOS TAF.  ON
SUNDAY...AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND
8-12 KTS. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS65 KBOU 211104
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
350 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...STILL COUNTING ON ANOTHER MILD DAY EVEN WITH PERIODS
OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS. CLOUD BAND APPROACHING WESTERN
COLORADO AT THE MOMENT LARGELY ABOVE 15 THSND FT MSL ACCORDING TO
UPSTREAM RAOB AND ACARS SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE ALREADY
REACHING THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND SHOWING UP AS A STANDING MTN WAVE
CLOUD. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE MTN WAVE IN THE LEE OF THE
FRONT RANGE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THRU THE MORNING AS WLY WIND SPDS
ALOFT INCREASE. BELIEVE WE/LL SEE SOME DEGREE OF MTN WAVE CLOUDINESS
OVER AND NEAR THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COULD
ALSO GET A LITTLE ROUGH FOR GENERAL AVIATION OVER AND EAST THE
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 35 TO 45KT ON THE LEE SLOPE OF THE FRONT
RANGE DOWN TO ABOUT 8 THSND FT MSL. HAVE ALREADY SEEN GUSTS IN THE
30-38KT RANGE ATOP BERTHOUD PASS AND IN THE VICINITY OF ESTES PARK
THIS A.M.. ON THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SFC
FLOW SHIFTING TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIVES A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY WWRD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS SOMETIME BETWEEN 21Z/SAT AND
00Z/SUN ACCORDING TO THE NAM AND GFS.

TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN AS IT LOOKS NOW. SOUNDINGS
AND CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CLOUD BASES DOWN TO AROUND 9000-10 THSND
FT MSL...LOW ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD MTN TOP OBSCURATION. WEAK
OROGRAPHICS AND NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY MOST OF THE NIGHT. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO WEST FACING
SLOPES. ON THE PLAINS...PASSAGE OF THE 700-500 MB TROUGH AXIS AROUND
06Z/SUN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER WITH DRY
BNDRY LAYER CONDITIONS...SEE LITTLE IF ANY OF THIS MOISTURE REACHING
THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE OBSERVED
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO IN
THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST ONE WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
ACROSS COLORADO SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS SCARCE WITH THIS
WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. WILL
LEAVE THE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AM AS THE TROF AXIS PASSES BY
IN THE AM THEN A MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS BY AFTERNOON. A BIT COOLER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A BIT STRONGER
AND MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A BIT
MORE MOISTURE AND ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE SO A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS OPEN WAVE GENERALLY DEEPENS INTO
NEBRASKA BUT LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NW AND RESULTS IN A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH PRECIP CHANCES VERY LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. AGAIN WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW POPS ON THE PLAINS.

RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WED-FRI WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. GOOD TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER GENERALLY ABOVE 14000 FEET MSL
TODAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT...
CLOUD BASES IN THE DENVER AREA SHOULD LOWER TO AROUND 9000-10000 FT
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. MAY POSSIBLY SEE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES LATE THIS
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED. ALSO ANTICIPATE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS AND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

BAKER/ENTREKIN

000
FXUS65 KGJT 211100
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
400 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WAVES HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING NOTHING MORE THAN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY. ENERGY/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS IMPULSE WILL MAINLY STAY TO OUR NORTH. THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE
JUST A LITTLE STRONGER AND AGAIN STAY MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...
THIS IMPULSE IS JUST A LITTLE STRONGER AND COLDER. ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUDS...THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH A FAST MOVING RIDGE SWEEPING BY ON SUNDAY. THEN LATE SUNDAY THE
LAST AND STRONGEST SHORTWAVE OF THE SERIES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH. BUT
ENOUGH ENERGY WILL DIP INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE CHANCE OF SNOW
TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. THE BEST TIMING IS FOR SUNDAY EVENING AS AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON THE RIGHT TRACK SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUDS INHIBIT MUCH OF A WARM UP...
THOUGH NIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALSO BECAUSE OF BETTER CLOUD
COVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD BRING SOME
OROGRAPHIC SNOW TO THE NORTHERN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS.  COLD ADVECTION
APPEARS WEAK WITH THE COLD POCKET STAYING NORTH OF COLORADO...
THEREFORE THE AIR MASS MAY STAY SOMEWHAT STABLE DESPITE NW FLOW.
THIS WOULD LIMIT SNOW PRODUCTION AND THE MODELS SEEM TO AGREE AS QPF
OVER THE NRN DIVIDE MOUNTAINS IS LOW AND ENDS BY BY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
TO THE CANADIAN PLAINS.  THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.  BY FRIDAY
THE GFS AND EC DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE EC SHOWING A DIGGING
TROUGH INTO NEVADA AND UTAH.  THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A SHORT WAVE
FLATTENING THE RIDGE BUT KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY.  NO CHANGES TO
THE DRY FORECAST UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER NE UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....EH
LONG TERM......PF
AVIATION.......TGJT

000
FXUS65 KPUB 211029
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...

(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENTLY...LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING...INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AS WELL
AS BRINGING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS INTO WESTERN COLORADO. AS
OF 3 AM...TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND VALLEYS...WHILE THE LOWER AREAS HAVE COOLED INTO THE
20S TO LOWER 30S. SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT IN DECOUPLED AREAS...BUT
SOME OF THE HIGHER SPOTS ARE REPORTING SW WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS ROLLS ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL AS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTS...NORTHERN SANGRES AND RAMPART RANGE.
THE BRUNT OF THIS UPPER FEATURE IS STAYING TO THE NORTH...SO TRIMMED
AREAL COVERAGE AND POPS FOR THE POSSIBLE PCPN...AS WELL AS MAKING
SURE ONSET OF PCPN IS NOT UNTIL THE EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED
TOWARDS THE COOLER END OF THE RANGE FOR MAX TEMPS WHICH FAVORED THE
GFS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SFC COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTN...THEN FLIPPED AND STAYED A TOUCH WARMER TONIGHT DUE TO
EXPECTED BRISK WINDS KEEPING THINGS WELL-MIXED. MOORE

.LONG TERM...

(SUN-FRI)

...MAIN CONCERN IS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM...

MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH ALL SIMULATIONS HAVE COME
IN STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE...BEST UPWARD LOWER LVL FORCING WILL
BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. LIKEWISE...I DO NOT SEE ANY
REASON TO CHANGE THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
PLAINS.

MAIN IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE PLAINS WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WX FOR MONDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY AND THE WIND COMBINED
WITH THE COLD TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLE DAY ACROSS THE
AREA. IF PRECIP DOES FALL ON THE PLAINS IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITH STRONG VORT LOBE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE MONDAY
MORNING TIME PD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE N OF
HIGHWAY US 50.

THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE C MTNS. AS HAS
BEEN DISCUSSED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN. BEST CHANCE OF ACCUM SNOWS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ON NORTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES. SNOW ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR S/BS  MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED PD.

OTHERWISE...TROUGH COMING ACROSS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPS
TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 8F COOLER THAN TODAYS (SAT) HIGH TEMPS.

LOOKING FARTHER OUT...WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM BEING A BIT STRONGER
AND SLOWER...TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE A BIT COOLER AND HAVE
TWEAKED THE HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON THIS DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION WED
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SIMULATIONS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM...GFS IS A
BIT FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER...WHILE EC MUCH FARTHER TO THE EAST.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS CONSENSUS WITH OTHER WX OFFICES AND
LEAN TOWARDS THE EC GUIDANCE. EVEN IF THE GFS DOES VERIFY...THE
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WX CONCERNS THANKSGIVING WOULD BE SOME MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES...KCOS...
KPUB AND KALS...THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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