[top]
000
FXUS62 KKEY 222033
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
333 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUD COVER HAS FINALLY STARTED TO THIN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 80F. PESKY AREAS OF RAIN HAVE HUNG AROUND OVER PORTIONS
OF THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...WITH RAIN CURRENTLY STILL FALLING
OVER THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
BAY AND HAWK CHANNEL. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE SLACKENED SINCE MORNING AS
EXPECTED.
THE BASIC FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE KEYS...AWAITING
THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE MID WEEK. A LACK OF LIFT AND DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL ENSURE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH A DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG UPPER WESTERLIES DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL INITIALLY COMMENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ON THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH A DEEPENING GALE CENTER APPROACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WEST OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE INTENSIFYING FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH
THE KEYS THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GO UP MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
FALLING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL
WARM THERMAL ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SUSTAINED SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
STRONGEST NORTH OF THE KEYS. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
APPROPRIATE SURFACE LIFT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WHEN MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND
LIFT WILL BE OPTIMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
ZONE. FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS MOST LIKELY ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT
THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE MSL PRESSURE PATTERN ESPECIALLY AFTER WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR OF CONTINENTAL ORIGIN SHOULD FILTER INTO THE KEYS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES DROPPING TO NEAR
ZERO.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF TONIGHT WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE A MORE DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP BY MID WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLE
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG NORTHWEST OR NORTH
BREEZES ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES -- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE
THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY ANY
SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 110 DEGREES
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 75 83 74 82 / 10 10 10 30
MARATHON 75 84 72 82 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......FUENTES
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KMLB 222010
AFDMLB
REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SO FAR DEBRIS RAIN HAS REMAINED NORTH OF THE CWA FOR THE
MOST PART...CLIPPING ONLY NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. SOME
WEAKER CELLULAR CONVECTION BRIEFLY FORMED OVER SRN BREVARD/INDIAN
RIVER COS...BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED QUICKLY. MAIN CONCERN IS SVR
TS ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRATIFORM RANSHILED...WHICH SEEMS TO BE RIDING
THETA GRAIDENT ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA. CORE SEEMS TO BE
JUST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE LAKE CO LINE...HOWEVER ACTIVITY DID
CLIP THE VILLAGES AND IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO MERIT SVR TSTM WARNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CELL AS IT MOVES EAST TWD NERN LAKE
AND NWRN VOLUSIA COS THROUGH LATE AFTN.
OVERNIGHT/MON...NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV THINKING. WEAK FRONTAL BDRY
WILL SAG ACROSS NRN CWA EARLY MON MORNING...WITH MOISTURE BAND
PUSHING ACROSS THE CTRL AND SRN CWA DURING THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHCS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT LIKE TODAY...
TONIGHT`S POPS LOOK AS THOUGH THEY ARE OVERDONE AND WILL UNDERCUT
BY ABOUT 10% ACROSS THE BOARD. MAV POPS FOR MON LOOK FINE AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION NEVER HAS
ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE SURFACE LOW QUICKLY
RACES OFF THE NORTHEAST BY THE CAROLINAS ALONG WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SAG SOUTHWARDS
ENOUGH TO LIMIT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS MON NIGHT.
BOUNDARY THEN DRIFTS A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARDS TUES AND TUES NIGHT
WITH MOISTURE LIFTING BACK OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SEVERAL MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN ADDITION TO THE JET ENERGY
OVERHEAD WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ELEVATED AT 30 PERCENT TUES/TUES
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARDS AGAIN.
NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL DROP BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS TUE WITH
SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF FRONTAL BAND...WITH HIGHS OVER THE SOUTH
REMAINING A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE LOW-MID 80S. OVERNIGHT MINS
GENERALLY LOW/MID 60S EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 50S NORTHERN INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
WED-SAT...THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE FROM MID
WEEK THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AS THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A TROF SKIRTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MOVE
IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
BOTH ARE SIMILAR IS THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ITS
RAINFALL. WHERE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES ARISE ARE IN THE TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS SWINGS THE AXIS OF
A DEEPLY AMPLIFYING TROF INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY WED NIGHT/EARLY
THURS...PICKING UP THE SFC LOW AND USHERING IT QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THURS AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER WITH THE SYSTEM...WITH THE FRONT STILL
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
SINCE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE MINIMAL COMPARED TO MOST MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...AND THE FACT THAT THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FROM ITS 00Z AND 06Z COUNTERPARTS. MADE A FEW CHANGES ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT TO KEEP HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...AND LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
TURNING DRIER AND MUCH COOLER BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAXES
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT MINS
STILL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S THANKSGIVING MORNING...THEN RANGING
FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH FRI MORN AND MOST OF EC FL
REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR MINS SAT MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TS CONTINUE TO BE AROUND THE LEE/DAB
VCNTY. POPS LOW ENOUGH TO WHERE 18Z SET DIDN`T INCLUDE ANY TEMPO
GROUPS...HOWEVER HAVE A PRETTY LONG PD OF VCSH OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED
AMD AS DAB...AND AMD FOR LEE IS FORTHCOMING SHORTLY.
&&
.MARINE...NIL CHGS. SLOWLY DIMINISHING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
ABOVE WHAT WINDS WOULD NORMALLY DICTATE THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS STARTING
OFF 3-4FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6FT WELL OFFSHORE TNGT...THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
TUE-FRI...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY E-NE AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE PENINSULA. WIND FORECAST WED-THU IS
UNCERTAIN AS THE EXACT DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
COMPONENT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY CONDITIONS. LINGERING E
SWELL DIMINISHES GRADUALLY THROUGH MID WEEK THEN INCREASES AGAIN BY
LATE THURS WITH NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 64 78 62 76 / 40 20 10 20
MCO 64 82 63 80 / 30 20 10 20
MLB 65 82 65 80 / 30 30 20 30
VRB 67 83 65 83 / 30 30 20 30
LEE 65 80 62 78 / 40 20 10 20
SFB 64 83 63 79 / 40 20 10 20
ORL 66 81 65 80 / 30 20 10 20
FPR 66 82 65 83 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....MOSES
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000
FXUS62 KJAX 222000
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
...LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTN...
.SYNOPSIS...AN OCCLUDED SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY WAS
SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CONTINUED
TO BEGIN DISPLACED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT TRACKED NWD
ACROSS THE MID-APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS
OUR N GA ZONES WAS SLOWLY YIELDING TO A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT WHICH EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM COASTAL SE GA WESTWARD TOWARD VLD.
CELLS BEGAN TO ROTATE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS WARE...CHARLTON AND BRANTLEY COUNTIES...BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN
VERY STABLE SO CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED. SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS N FL A DRY SLOT WAS EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHILE A SWATCH OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN WAS
SHIFTING EAST FROM SGJ-GNV WITH A FEW WEAK TS EMBEDDED OVER MARION
COUNTY.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WED...
STILL NOT CONVINCED THAT SVR WEATHER THREAT IS OVER FOR OUR CWA.
ALTHOUGH MID/UPR LEVEL DRY SLOT IS EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
FL...INCREASED INSOLATION AND HIGH SFC BASED INSTABILITIES NEAR THE
WARM FRONT IN CONCERT WITH WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL PVA ARE STILL
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A LOW TORNADO THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTN
ACROSS N FL AND S GA.
AS THE BROAD SFC LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS
DECOUPLE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND MID/UPR LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF
FOG WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. STILL NOT GOING TO
GO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES DUE TO PRESENCE
OF LINGERING LOW CLOUDS...BUT AS DEW PT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE TONIGHT
WE COULD SEE LOW CIGS LOWER TOWARD THE SFC. MINS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO NEAR 70 ALONG OUR SE FL COAST.
MON EXPECT DRY AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW PRESSURE
RE-DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST AND ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WORKS IT WAY DOWN THE APPALACHIANS OVER N GA. NNW
FLOW WILL VEER NNE MON NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AS
MINS DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO NEAR 60S
SOUTH.
TUE & WED...THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AMPLIFIES AS AN APPROACHING
BUT WEAKENING SFC FRONTAL ZONE NEARS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP A SFC
LOW IN THE GULF THAT WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND/OR RE-DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE FL EAST COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR FL ZONES...WILL
RAISE RAIN CHANCES LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY THU. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS FROM SGJ-GNV SOUTHWARD. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE
40S SE GA TO 60S SE FL ZONES...WITH MAXES NEAR 70 TO MID 70S UNDER
MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AN APPROACHING WEAK SFC FRONT AND THE
INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROGRESS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE REGION LATE THU. THIS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES FRI
AS DRY AIR FILTERS OVER THE AREA...BUT SKIES MAY REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY UNTIL SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CWA FROM THE GULF COAST THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER THE CWA FRI WITH
TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MINS IN THE
30S WELL INLAND/40S COAST WITH MAXES IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SAT AND SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE DOMINATING THE NE FL TERMINALS...WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT KSSI TERMINAL DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. LITTLE CHANGE IS IS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 02Z...WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. IN FACT...THE COMBINATION OF
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD FOG
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME LIKELY TO DOMINATE. THUS...WILL
RECOMBINE FL/GA ZONES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SEGMENT THE NEARSHORE/
OFFSHORE ZONES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE LEGS TONIGHT...AND CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
OFFSHORE LEGS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
LINGERING SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 50 67 48 67 / 30 0 0 0
SSI 58 71 54 66 / 40 0 0 10
JAX 59 75 54 70 / 40 10 10 20
SGJ 64 76 60 69 / 40 10 10 30
GNV 60 76 55 72 / 30 10 10 20
OCF 61 78 57 75 / 30 10 10 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZAPPE/WALKER
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTAE 221923
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 2 PM EST...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLOUDY WITH PERSISTENT 4-8 HUNDRED
FOOT STRATUS CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MAINLY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. TEMPS RANGED FROM
MID 50S EACH SE ALA/SRN GA TO MID 70S AT THE COAST. WINDS WERE
GENERALLY SOUTH 8-15 MPH IN FLA AND NE 10 TO 15 MPH IN ALA/GA. THE
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CONTRASTS REFLECTED THE POSITION OF WARM
FRONT.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH TROFFING
ACROSS WEST COAST...RIDGING OVER INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...TROFFING
OVER ROCKIES AND PLAINS...RIDGING OVER NERN THIRD...AND A TROUGH
OVER SERN THIRD OF U.S. LOOKING INTO REST OF SHORT TERM...PAC NW
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE SEWD AND CLOSE INTO A LOW OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. AND INTO SE NEB BY 12Z TUESDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS ERN CONUS BY END OF WORK WEEK. BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE SPINNING A LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA LATE
TUES WITH A SECONDARY LOBE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS LOCAL AREA MID WEEK.
OTHERWISE...A DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CLOSER TO HOME...SE REGION TROUGH MARKED BY UPPER LOW AND PARENT
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NEWD OVER EXTREME NRN AL...AND A MID TROPOSPHERIC
DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
ASSOCD STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE AND HAS EXHAUSTED ITS
POTENTIAL ENERGY. AS UPSTREAM ROCKIES TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO MS
VALLEY TONIGHT...AL LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO OH VALLEY BEFORE
BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW MONDAY MORNING. AS
PREDICTED...THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...
WHICH IS WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWED ELONGATED WEAK 1013 MB LOW FROM ERN LA THRU WRN
FL PANHANDLE WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO APALACHEE BAY AND
INTO SRN GULF...AND A RATHER DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD S
OF I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD N OF WARM FRONT. THIS REFLECTED IN ABOVE FL VS ALA/GA AIR
MASS CONTRASTS. AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS FURTHER NNE...THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT LOW TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS EVE BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS
FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. MOST OF THE ASSOCD PRECIP MOVING OUT TO THE EAST
AND NORTH OF THE CWA DURING LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WEAKENS AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THRU
MONDAY WHILE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING IT INTO EXTREME SE ALA/SRN GA THIS EVE
BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS LOW/FRONT PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CLEARING OF
RAIN CLEARING FROM SW TO NE INTO TONIGHT LEAVING A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
ALL OF ABOVE REFLECTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...I.E. GFS TAE WITH 1.55
INCH PWAT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL WARMING AT 12Z SUN DOWN TO 0.70 INCH
PWAT WITH SOME SIGNS OF LOW LEVEL COOLING AT 12Z MON DOWN TO 0.56
INCH PWAT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL COOLING AT 12Z TUES. THEN...MODELS
DIFFER. GFS BRINGS GULF LOW NEWD ACROSS GULF AND ACROSS EXTREME SE
BIG BEND 12Z WED...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES PWAT 18Z TUES-18Z WED.
CONVERSELY...NAM KEEPS LOW WELL S OF CWA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
PWAT. HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING GFS NOT REFLECTING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK AND UNTIL I SEE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT WILL NOT BITE ON GFS
SOLUTION AND LEAN TOWARDS DRIER NAM.
FURTHER UPSTREAM...ABOVE EWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERATE
A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON WED. DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER SE LOCAL REGION SHOULD
PREVENT ALL BUT VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CLOSEST TO LOW/FRONT
(NE TIER OF GA COUNTIES) EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
OR EXIT NEWD BY MIDNIGHT LEAVING ONLY LIGHT PATCHY DRIZZLE ASSOCD
WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS...WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
WILL GO WITH ZERO-30 PCT SW-NE POP GRADIENT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
WILL BE LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER ALA/GA ZONES
NEAR WARM FRONT AS REFLECTED IN SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS. WITH WARM FRONT
WASHING OUT OVER SE ALA/SRN GA THE AREA LOW STRATUS AND FOG
POTENTIAL HIGH NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE
FOG EVERYWHERE IN THE GRIDS. MIN TEMPS MID 40S SE ALA TO UPPER 50S
SE BIG BEND.
MONDAY...SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR MIST ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG
LINGERING IN MORNING. WILL GO WITH NO MEASURABLE POPS. HIGHS MID 60S
SE ALA TO MID 70S SE BIG BEND.
TUESDAY...NO POPS EXCEPT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT SE BIG BEND. HIGHS MID
60S SE ALA TO MID 70S SE BIG BEND.
WEDNESDAY...ZERO-30 PCT NW-SE POP GRADIENT. HIGHS UPPER 60S SE ALA
TO MID 70S SE BIG BEND.
.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
ECMWF AND GFS IS IN SOMEWHAT CLOSER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...THE
DEVIL CONTINUES TO BE IN THE DETAILS WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
TROF A LITTLE MORE SHARPLY AND FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...WITH
THE RESULTANT SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH.
SINCE EACH OF THE MODELS HAS CONTINUED TO EDGE A BIT CLOSER TO THE
OTHER...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND LEAN
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GFS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TRANSLATES INTO
MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS AND LOWER POPS THAN INDICATED
BY THE EURO. BOTH MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN-OVC THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
CIGS REMAINING IN THE IFR-MVFR CATEGORY. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ABOVE 1KFT. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS FROM ABY TO VLD TO TLH.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE WARM FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
HOWEVER...THE WAVE WATCH MODE INDICATES THAT THE SEAS MAY NOT
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP INHERITED SCEC MAINLY
FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING WILL KEEP THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF AS DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 50 71 48 71 51/ 20 0 0 10 10
PANAMA CITY 55 70 52 69 55/ 10 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 48 67 46 67 49/ 20 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 48 68 47 69 48/ 30 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 51 72 49 70 51 30 0 0 10 20
CROSS CITY 58 75 53 75 55/ 20 10 20 30 30
APALACHICOLA 57 73 53 72 55/ 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BLOCK/GIBBS/DUVAL
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMFL 221916
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN GULF
OF MEX WILL MOVE NORTHEAST DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...MOST ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, SO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DUE TO LACK OF SUPPORT. LOCAL AREA
WILL REMAIN UNDER A MOIST SW DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH A CHANCE OF
PRECIP ESPECIALLY AREAS TO THE NORTH AND VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WL NOT
SUPPORT TSTMS AND WL ONLY INDICATE SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WL BEGIN TO BUILD AND ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER A
CHANCE OF PRECIP. BELIEVE GFS STILL STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AS IT STILL SHOWS UNBELIEVABLE OMEGA VALUES WITH
EQUALLY RIDICULOUS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (NEAR 8 INCHES) OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER INSIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WL STAY AWAY FROM THE HIGH POPS ADVERTISED
BY GFS AND WL ONLY GO UP TO SCT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. ON WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
AROUND THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MAKING IT DIG SOUTH TO NRN
GULF OF MEX THURSDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN GIVE A STRONG ENOUGH PUSH
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE
PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL REPLACE IT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN A GOOD 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES DURING THIS PERIOD.
.MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE MAINLY
E-SE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS AOB 4 FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED AS MIN RH SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVEL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 83 69 83 / 30 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 84 73 84 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI 73 85 73 85 / 20 20 20 30
NAPLES 69 85 69 85 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...52/PS
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTBW 221820
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
120 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY...EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME NORTHERN ALABAMA IS QUICKLY ADVANCING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AS THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL AS IT MOVES OVER THE
PENINSULA. EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. DRIER
AIR MOVING IN OVER THE FL PANHANDLE HOWEVER MAY LIMIT CHANCES UP IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND OFFSHORE.
ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH UP ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WHERE THE BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP IS WHERE POPS
WILL BE FOCUSED...AND BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
TAMPA BAY AREA AND FORT MYERS (EACH MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE PUSHING IT
FURTHER NORTHWARD). DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL
AND HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AND
SOME ENERGY MOVES AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF. REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE HANGING
AROUND THE PENINSULA AS WELL...SO WILL CALL FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN. HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30% FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITHOUT ANY REAL COLD PUSH BEHIND THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN WITH THE ADDED CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOIST AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FEATURES MID WEEK THEN DRYING AND
COOLER BY NEXT WEEKEND. EXTENDED MODELS COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON OVERALL FEATURES BUT EXACT TIMING AND FINAL PLACEMENT STILL
UNCLEAR. ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM AND DGEX ARE THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTIONS WITH MID WEEK SYSTEM WHILE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE SLIGHTLY
FASTER. WILL GO WITH BLEND AND EXPECT MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE TO THE
AREA WHILE EJECTING MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXES THE REGION AS A
SURFACE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY FORM SOMEWHERE ALONG FRONT...BUT ALL
FEATURES TO COMBINE IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE 30 TO 50
POPS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST
POPS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO EXPECTED HIGHEST MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE AND BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS FEATURES UNFOLD GRIDS
WILL BE TAILORED TO THE METEOROLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS. TEMPS TO
HOLD SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.
DIGGING UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH TO PUSH ALL ACTIVITY TO THE EAST WITH
COLD FRONT CLEARING THROUGH THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN. TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT.
TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND NW...FLOW ALOFT AND COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO KEEP TEMPS 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FELT
OVER THE NATURE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA OVER
THE E GULF MOVING ASHORE WITH LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALSO TOWARDS
MORNING AREAS OF BR TO REDEVELOP WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL
AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY HOWEVER...SO DON`T EXPECT SPEEDS TO BE ALL THAT MUCH
MORE THAN 10KTS. WITH THIS DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGING OUT
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (IT`S EXACT LOCATION IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME)...EXPECT WINDS TO BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...BUT
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ENOUGH MOISTURE HANGS UP OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
THERE WILL BE NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 81 64 79 / 30 20 10 30
FMY 69 84 66 82 / 20 30 20 30
GIF 66 82 63 80 / 30 30 20 30
SRQ 67 80 64 79 / 30 30 20 30
BKV 62 80 57 79 / 30 20 10 30
SPG 67 78 67 77 / 30 20 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...23/MCNATT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 221753
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1253 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
MIA & FLL WL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE
SE, AS FNTL SYS KEEPS BEST MOISTURE & INSTABILITY WELL TO OUR N &
W. HWVR, SOME LOW LVL CONVRGNC MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
SHRA OVR S FL THIS AFTN, BUT MAINLY W & N OF MIA /FLL ARPTS AND
PERHAPS APF. THINK ANY SHRA AT THE AFFECTED TERMINALS SHOULD BE
BRIEF WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING EVERYWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONLY VCSH, IF ANYTHING, THIS AFTN/EVNG AT PBI BUT ALSO OVERNIGHT
FOR APF.
WINDS FROM SOUTH SOUTHEAST 7-10KT EAST COAST AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST APF...00Z
DIMINISHING 4-6KT...02-03Z AOB 3KT (NR CALM) AND VARIABLE... AFTER
14Z TOMORROW MORNING SE 6-8KT AND LIGHTER AT APF SHIFTING ONSHORE
THERE FOR AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS
000
FXUS62 KKEY 221556
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1056 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL LOWER KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES EXPERIENCED A CLOUDY AND RAINY
MORNING. NEARLY ONE INCH OF RAIN FELL IN PORTIONS OF KEY WEST WITH
MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER KEYS. THE 0.89 INCH TOTAL AT
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS JUST SHY OF THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD OF 0.93 SET IN 1942. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THE RECORD WILL REMAIN
IN TACT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS HAVE REMAINED
RAIN-FREE THUS FAR TODAY...RECENT DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW RAIN
FALLING ON LAYTON AND LOWER MATECUMBE KEY WITH SHOWERS APPROACHING
ISLAMORADA. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE
LOWER KEYS WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S AT MOST STATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING 80F IN THE UPPER KEYS.
THE KEY WEST MORNING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A DISTINCT
VEERING OF WIND WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 10000 FEET...
INDICATIVE OF WARM THERMAL ADVECTION IN THIS LAYER. THIS OBSERVATION
IS CONFIRMED BY FURTHER DIAGNOSIS...AS LOW-LEVEL AIR TRAJECTORIES
ORIGINATING IN THE KEYS ARE SLOPING UPWARD AND TOWARD A FRONTAL ZONE
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLIER THIS MORNING
REVEALED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH A MIGRATING
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOCAL MSL PRESSURE PATTERN.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY LATE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A
SUBTLE SLACKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST BREEZE. RAIN WILL BE AROUND IN
PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS WEAK
WARM THERMAL ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSISTS AND A FEW LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINES SERVE TO INITIATE INITIAL SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
CELLS. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO ADJUST SKY COVER...WEATHER...
RAIN CHANCES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL OCCUR LATE WHEN
SKY COVER SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE MAINLY SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
SUBTLE DROP IN WIND SPEEDS TOWARD EVENING. AREAS OF RAIN WILL BE
FOUND MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE REEFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
ONLY BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS...WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 150
DEGREES AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......ROSS/NELSON
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 221548
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
...ELEVATED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...
...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN TURNING MUCH
COOLER BY FRIDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...WEAK/BROADENING LOW PRES CTR FROM MOB-PNS DRIFTING NEWD
ATTM. WARM SECTOR HAS WORKED NWD ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH AN OCCLUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEAK LOW...
AND PUSHING EWD INTO THE NERN GOMEX ATTM. PARENT UPPER TROUGH IS
CTRD OVER THE SERN CONUS BTWN THE LWR MS AND TN RVR VLYS. DATA FM
12Z RAOBS...CCAFS 50MHZ PROFILER AND RUC H25 ANLYS SHOW JET WINDS
OF ABOUT 80-90KT OVHD...WHICH HAVE INCRSD AS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
SERN CONUS TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE S/T RIDGE TO THE SOUTH/EAST. THIS
IS CAUSING AN UPWARD SPIKE IN U/L DIVG...WHICH IN TURN IS HELPING
SUPPORT TWO SMALL/NARROW CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE ERN GOMEX. LOCAL
88D RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DECENT SWATH OF DEBRIS RAIN EXTENDING ENE
FROM THE NRN BAND ACROSS NORTH FL...WITH ITS SRN EDGE OVER MARION
/PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COS. THE SECOND BAND OFFSHORE SW FL HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE 12Z...AND WHATS LEFT OF ITS SPOTTY DEBRIS RAIN
IS FALLNG APART WELL TO OUR WEST. SEVERAL NARROW/SMALL MARINE BDRYS
NOTED ON KMLB...MNLY OFFSHORE THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. ONE HAS
PROPAGATED INLAND...WITH SMALL SHRA HAVING RECENTLY POPPED UP NR
I-95 OVER I.R. AND SRN BREVARD COS.
REST OF TODAY...MAIN FCST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POPS FOR TODAY.
06Z MAV/MET GUIDANCE PROGS POINT TO NRN AREAS AS HAVING BETTER RAIN
CHCS...BEING CLOSEST TO APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BDRY. SEEING HOW
THE MID/HIGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE LARGELY NORTH OF THE CWA
(A SMALLER SWATH IS IMPACTING THE SRN HALF CWA...BUT IS THINNING
ATTM)...WE SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE CU POP SHORTLY WITH DECENT AMOUNT
OF DAYTIME HEATING. PROSPECTS FOR TS LOOK RATHER LIMITED AS MEAN
CAPE VALUES DERIVED FROM MORNING RAOBS LOOK SCANT...HOWEVER THERE
IS SOME RESPECTABLE JET DIVG THAT WILL BE INCRSG OVHD...SO PROBABLY
NOT A BAD IDEA TO KEEP IN MENTION OF SLGT CHC TS FOR THE NORTH...AND
MAY ADD IT TO CTRL COS AS WELL. ANY UPDRAFTS THAT PUNCH INTO THE
DRIER AIR ABOVE H80 COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER OVERALL
COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT HIGH...AND TS COVRG
SHOULD BE LOWER STILL.
W/R/T GRIDS/ZFP CHGS...WILL NUDGE POPS UP BY ~10% ACROSS THE CTRL
CWA...AND WILL NEED TO UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP AND REMOVE REFFERENCES
TO THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO MASSAGE WINDS AROUND TWD THE SSE/SOUTH
AND TOUCH UP SKY COVER SOME AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...BEST CHC FOR SHRA TODAY WILL BE INVOF LEE-SFB-DAB...
CLOSEST TO FRONTAL BDRY. LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS...CHCS/
CVRG MORE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY...AND LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY
WILL PROBABLY MORE LKLY MISS THAN HIT ANY PARTICULAR AERODROME.
&&
.MARINE...LOCAL OBS FROM BUOYS SHOW NE SWELLS CONTINUE TO PUSH SEAS
UP TO AROUND 5FT FROM ABOUT 20-60NM. SWELL WILL BE VERY SLOW TO
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT H24. CWF COVERS ONGOING CONDS WELL...AND SEE
NOSIG REASON FOR ANY CHGS ATTM.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM...MOSES
000
FXUS62 KTBW 221503
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WITH FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE GULF JUST
SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE. TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ONE STRONGER ONE LOCATED
OFFSHORE OF CEDAR KEY AND ANOTHER WEAKER AREA OFFSHORE OF FORT
MYERS. INSTABILITY IS LACKING FURTHER SOUTH AS IS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
(LOOKING AT THE MFL SOUNDING)...SO EXPECT THE STORMS OFF FORT MYERS
TO BARELY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY...AND THE
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS...EXPECT ONGOING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN GA/AL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
HOWEVER...SO NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
THE ONLY QUESTION MARK IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA...THINK THIS IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT WOULDN`T
RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO GENERALLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST WINDS SLIGHTLY...OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO WARM FRONT HANGING OUT JUST NORTH OF US AND
AXIS OF MOISTURE CENTERED OVER THE PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED ISOLD TSRA OVER THE E GULF TO MOVE
ASHORE AND WITH LCL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION.
&&
.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KNOTS OFFSHORE AND WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO BUMP SPEEDS DOWN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OFFSHORE AROUND CEDAR KEY AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 67 80 64 / 40 30 20 10
FMY 83 69 83 66 / 30 20 30 20
GIF 82 66 81 63 / 40 30 20 10
SRQ 80 67 79 64 / 40 30 20 10
BKV 80 62 79 57 / 40 30 20 10
SPG 79 67 77 67 / 40 30 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...23/MCNATT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS
000
FXUS62 KTAE 221448
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AT 9 AM EST...SKIES WERE MAINLY CLOUDY WITH 5-8 HUNDRED
FOOT STRATUS CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR INDICATED LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER INCREASING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE RIVER. TEMPS/DEW POINTS RANGED FROM MID 50S EACH
SE ALA/SRN GA TO UPPER 60S EACH AT THE COAST. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
E-NE 5 TO 10 MPH.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH TROFFING
ACROSS WEST COAST...RIDGING OVER INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...TROFFING
OVER ROCKIES AND PLAINS...RIDGING OVER NERN THIRD...AND A TROUGH
OVER SERN THIRD OF U.S. LOOKING INTO REST OF SHORT TERM...UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE
SEWD AND CLOSE INTO A LOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AND INTO SE NEB BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT
TOWARDS LOCAL AREA MID WEEK.
CLOSER TO HOME...SE REGION TROUGH MARKED BY PARENT SHORT WAVE
LIFTING NEWD OVER AL...AND A MID TROPOSPHERIC DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO
ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ASSOCD STACKED LOW
CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE AND HAS EXHAUSTED ITS POTENTIAL ENERGY. IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS GA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
ABSORBED IN THE LONGWAVE FLOW MONDAY MORNING. AS PREDICTED...THE
MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...WHICH IS WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED. DURING THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND LIFT ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1009 MB LOW OVER WRN MOST MS COAST WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD IN TO GULF AND A RATHER DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN COASTAL WATERS OF THE FL BIG BEND.
THIS REFLECTED IN ABOVE FL VS ALA/GA AIR MASS CONTRASTS. THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT LOW TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE AND TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
ACROSS FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA TONIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCD PRECIP MOVING OUT TO THE
EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THIS AFTN. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TONIGHT LEAVING A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE TODAY THRU MONDAY WHILE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO
NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKING IT INTO
EXTREME SE ALA/SRN GA BEFORE STALLING OUT. ALL THIS REFLECTED IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...I.E. GFS TAE WITH 1.55 INCH PWAT AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL WARMING AT 12Z SUN DOWN TO 0.70 INCH PWAT WITH SOME SIGNS OF
LOW LEVEL COOLING AT 12Z MON DOWN TO 0.56 INCH PWAT AND MODEST LOW
LEVEL COOLING AT 12Z TUES.
FURTHER UPSTREAM...ABOVE EWD MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERATE
A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BRING A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON WED. DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL REGION SHOULD
PREVENT ALL BUT VERY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY)
THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE
STACKED LOW AND THE LARGE SCALE Q-G FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN
MOVES THROUGH.
AS FAR AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CHANCES MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THAN
6HRS AGO. HOWEVER...DESPITE UPPER/LOWER SUPPORT LIFTING NEWD AND
WEAKENING INTO TONIGHT...AS SPC NOTED...GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THERE IS ADEQUATE UPPER SUPPORT/SHEAR FOR A LOW END THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT
CAN OCCUR AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NWD ACROSS NRN FL. ON THE OTHER
HAND...GIVEN THE LOW STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CWA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO HEAT SUFFICIENTLY TO DEVELOP MUCH
MORE MLCAPE THAN ABOUT 500 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS WILL MONITOR THE
WEATHER CLOSELY IN THE VICINITY OF FRONTAL WHERE SOME ENHANCED SHEAR
COULD FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF
TORNADO AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE LOW STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER ALA/GA
ZONES AS REFLECTED IN SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS. WITH WARM FRONT WASHING
OUT OVER SE ALA/SRN GA THE AREA LOW STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL HIGH
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG EVERYWHERE
IN THE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN-OVC THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
CIGS REMAINING IN THE IFR-MVFR CATEGORY. LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ABOVE 1KFT. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS FROM ABY TO VLD TO TLH.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT TIGHTENED MORE THAN
FORECAST...AND WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL ZONES. BELIEVE
THAT BOTH SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW WEAKENS
AND THE WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE WAVE WATCH MODE
INDICATES THAT THE SEAS MAY NOT SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL TONIGHT.
WILL KEEP INHERITED SCEC MAINLY FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TODAY AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD MEAN NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...AS COOLER DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BLOCK/GIBBS
000
FXUS62 KJAX 221430
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
...POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...
.UPDATE...A WARM FRONT STRETCHES NE-SW ACROSS OUR N FL ZONES WITH A
BROADENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MS/AL GULF COAST. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH COOL ENE
FLOW ACROSS OUR GA ZONES (TEMPS & DEW PTS IN THE LOW/MID
60S)...WHILE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR FL ZONES WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAS RAISED TEMPS AND DEW PTS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION HAS IMPACTED MOST OF OUR GA CWA THIS MORNING
WITH A BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS OUR FL
ZONES FROM GNV TOWARD NIP. HAD AN ELEVATED STORM LAST HOUR WITH
DECENT MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES AND INBOUND VELOCITIES ACROSS WAYNE
AND INLAND GLYNN COUNTIES...BUT IT HAS LIFTED NE OUT OF OUR CWA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PERSISTENT SUPERCELL IN THE GOMEX AND
POSSIBLE POP-UP TS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT INITIAL FEELING IS THAT
THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED SFC BASED INSTABILITY...THUS LIMITING
SVR WX POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE WEDGE
AND THE WARM FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE NAM12 WHICH DID
A GOOD JOB YESTERDAY POSITIONING THE WARM FRONT ACROSS N FL THIS
MORNING. THIS AFTN THE BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER N...BUT
IT WILL BE WEAKENING AND LIKELY NOT MOVE MUCH FARTHER N THAN THE
FL-GA STATELINE. IF SOME INSOLATION CAN OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT TODAY ACROSS NE FL...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DUE TO MODEST SFC BASED CAPES AROUND
1000-1200 J/KG AND SRH VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2. SO...ALTHOUGH THREAT
OF SVR WX IS LOW...IT WILL EXIST THIS AFTN UNTIL FRONTAL INVERSION
DEVELOPS AS LOW PRESSURE RE-DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE SVR WX POSSIBILITY IN THE
HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
RAIN-COOLED ENVIRONMENT YIELDING LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH CEILING
HEIGHTS MAINLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FEET AS OF 9 AM EST. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KSSI WHERE CEILINGS ARE AROUND 1000 FEET AGL AS
STRONG NORTHEAST WEDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COAST. A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES NEAR THE STATE LINE AS THIS
FEATURE IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING ENERGY WITH APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PROMOTE EVEN LOWER CEILINGS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS TAF
CYCLE. ADDITIONALLY...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHEAST WEDGE REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WITH BUOY 41008 RESORTING 21G27KT. A SURFACE
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RESIDES NEAR THE STATE LINE...WITH BUOY 41012
REPORTING SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THE BALANCE OF TODAY...WITH AN
OPEN WAVE/SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
ATLANTIC WATERS...ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEGMENT NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE LEGS AS WELL AS SEGMENTING
FL/GA MARINE ZONES DUE TO VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION/WIND SPEED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 59 48 64 47 / 90 30 10 10
SSI 65 57 68 52 / 70 50 10 10
JAX 69 57 75 51 / 70 50 10 10
SGJ 75 64 76 57 / 50 50 10 10
GNV 77 59 78 53 / 60 50 10 10
OCF 79 61 79 55 / 60 50 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZAPPE/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KMFL 221126
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
626 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CEILINGS OF
AROUND 3K FT BY LATE MORNING. ALSO A FEW SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM APF TO PBI BY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS FAIRLY LOW FOR
ANY IMPACT TO ANY TERMINAL. WINDS WILL SE TO START THE DAY AND
THEN GOING S TONIGHT...BUT AT APF WINDS WILL BECOME SW FOR A TIME
WHEN THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND SETTLEMENT POINT. A THICK DECK OF
CIRROSTRATUS MOVING OVERHEAD IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
LIMITED THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
GULF COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WHICH COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT VERSIONS OF THE GFS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS A
RESULT. THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A
STRONG INVERSION OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE WITH SLIGHT TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE ANY
EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKER...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A STRONGER INFLUENCE
FROM MID- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INCREASING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE TREND OF HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES IN
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FURTHERMORE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH
MAY ALSO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD. MAJOR
AMPLIFICATION IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS
STILL FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A SECONDARY UPPER
LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER...AND IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ON SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
A SMALL 1-3 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS...AS WELL AS COMBINED SEAS
OF 3-4 FEET IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS. THERE ARE NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER ALL WATERS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
IN THE GULF STREAM FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNTIL THAT POINT...MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PRECLUDE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 83 69 / 30 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 85 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 84 69 84 68 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KMFL 220927
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND SETTLEMENT POINT. A THICK DECK OF
CIRROSTRATUS MOVING OVERHEAD IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
LIMITED THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY...AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
GULF COAST. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
WARM ADVECTION REGIME...WHICH COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...SHOULD RESULT IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT VERSIONS OF THE GFS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONGER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES AS A
RESULT. THE NAM/UKMET/ECMWF ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A
STRONG INVERSION OVER THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE WITH SLIGHT TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE. HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES...WHERE ANY
EFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE WEAKER...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS ON MONDAY...AS MOST MODELS AGREE ON A STRONGER INFLUENCE
FROM MID- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS A STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INCREASING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO A
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE TREND OF HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES IN
EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FURTHERMORE...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH
MAY ALSO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD. MAJOR
AMPLIFICATION IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS
STILL FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A SECONDARY UPPER
LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER...AND IT STILL
APPEARS AS IF THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR ON SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL 1-3 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL WILL PERSIST IN THE ATLANTIC
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TODAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS...AS WELL AS COMBINED SEAS
OF 3-4 FEET IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS. THERE ARE NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER ALL WATERS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
IN THE GULF STREAM FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNTIL THAT POINT...MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PRECLUDE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 83 69 / 30 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 85 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 84 69 84 68 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KMLB 220910
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
409 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
...ELEVATED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY...
...CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT FEW DAYS THEN TURNING COOLER LATE WEEK...
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SLOWLY
MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES THE FL PANHANDLE. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...BUT NOT CONSIDERABLY. MOS POPS
ARE NOW MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING OF LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD
OCCUR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AN INTO N FL AHEAD OF THE LOW AND ALONG
A WEAK WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER ISO-SCT SHRA STILL
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND OVER ECFL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (AROUND 40%) AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA...CLOSER TO
THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER N FL WHERE GREATER FORCING WILL RESIDE. WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
CREATING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND KEEPING A LOW END CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS
TODAY AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
MON-TUE...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY WEEK WITH COOL FRONT DRIFTING OVER THE AREA. ENHANCED MOISTURE
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT/JET STREAK
SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SLGHT CHC/CHC POPS AND HAVE DISTRIBUTED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS SOUTH VERSUS NORTH AS FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD.
TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAXES REACHING LOWER 80S MOST
AREAS MON AND AGAIN IN THE SOUTH ON TUE...NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY DROP
BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO HIGHS TUE WITH SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF FRONTAL BAND.
OVERNIGHT MINS GENERALLY LOW/MID 60S EXCEPT FOR A FEW UPPER 50S
NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS.
TUE NIGHT-SAT...SOME NOTICEABLE CHANGES IN STORE WED THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. BOTH ECMWF/GFS MODELS INDICATE DRIFT NORTHWARD
OF FRONTAL BAND LATE TUE INTO WED BEFORE A STRONG PUSH BACK TO TEH
SOUTH BY AMPLIFYING TROF ALOFT TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER EASTERN
CONUS BY LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...STILL SOME SIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
TWO WITH ECMWF STILL LIFTING DEEP MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH AND THEN IS
SLOWER TO PUSH IT BACK TO THE SOUTH. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS(CHC)
FOR ALL AREAS DAYTIME WED THEN TREND DOWN NORTH TO SOUTH ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED ONE DIRECTION OR THE
OTHER IN LATER FORECASTS ONCE THE MODELS GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT.
TURNING DRIER AND MUCH COOLER BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MAXES
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH AND LOW/MID 70S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT MINS
STILL IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S THANKSGIVING MORNING...THEN RANGING
FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH FRI MORN AND MOST OF EC FL
REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR MINS SAT MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY SEE
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS NEAR SUNRISE IN PATCHY FOG. ISO-SCT SHRA WILL FORM
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE...MAINLY
IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHERN TAF SITES FROM KLEE-KDAB LATER THIS AFT
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH NEAR THE 00Z TIME
FRAME AND INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...NE SWELLS WILL KEEP SEAS OFFSHORE UP TO 5 FT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BECOME S/SE
UP TO AROUND 10-15 KTS OFFSHORE AS A WEAK LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS AND
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.
MON-THU...WINDS W-SW MON AHEAD OF FRONT THEN SHIFTING TO MORE N-NE
COMPONENT TUE-WED AS FRONT DRIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH AREA.
WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS
DIMINISH GRADUALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY THURS
WITH NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 79 65 79 62 / 40 30 20 10
MCO 82 65 82 63 / 30 30 20 10
MLB 81 68 81 64 / 20 30 30 20
VRB 82 68 81 66 / 20 30 30 20
LEE 80 66 80 61 / 40 30 20 10
SFB 81 65 82 62 / 30 30 20 10
ORL 82 68 82 63 / 30 30 20 10
FPR 81 66 81 65 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....GLITTO
000
FXUS62 KKEY 220857
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
355 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN MIGRATING NORTHWARD FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN KEY
WEST AND DRY TORTUGAS AND SOUTH FOR 60 NM. ELSEWHERE...NO
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DETECTED...WHILE A STEADY...ALBEIT LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN. SURFACE WISE...A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS
NOSING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE A DECAYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
(1010 MB) IS LOCATED SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ACROSS THE MARINE
DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS AND SHIP REPORTS IN
THE STRAITS INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A DAMPENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY...LEAVING A
BROAD SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OLD MEXICO AND MOST OF
GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...THE ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT
TRANSLATES ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...BEFORE REFORMING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SO WHERE DOES OUR NEXT BOUT OF PRECIPITATION COME FROM.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.35 INCHES TODAY TO 1.6 INCHES ON
TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ABSENT.
HOWEVER...AN INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW COULD PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BEGINNING TUESDAY. BUT UNTIL THEN...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN OLD MEXICO WILL EJECT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DEPARTING THE
SUNSHINE STATE THURSDAY. WITHIN THIS DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND AN ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL HELP PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING DAY. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES OF NEAR 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH SOME LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL PROMPT ABOVE AVERAGE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND THE ALIGNMENT
AND INTENSITY OF DYNAMICS ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SLOWLY FILTER IN WITH POPS BEING REMOVED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 70S OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES
WILL FINALLY BE BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT ON ALL KEYS
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HENCE...NO
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW TOPPED SHOWERS
AROUND 12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 83 75 82 74 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 84 75 82 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.................APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....MS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 220855
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM (SUNDAY - TUESDAY)...M/L TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE
LOUISIANA/AL REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NE GULF WATERS...AND DATA FROM THE DOPPLER RADAR IN RUSKIN
FL AT 330 AM EST WAS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN LEVY
COUNTY. INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
PUSH INLAND TODAY...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEP THE BEST U/L DYNAMIC SUPPORT WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE STATE WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
AS THE TRAILING FRONT WEAKENS IT SEEMS TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY...AT LEAST PER LATEST
GFS/NAM. THE MOISTURE FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE DECAYING BOUNDARY
REMAINS LINGERING ACROSS THE STATE AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH MAYBE
BETTER CHANCES SOUTH. 20/30 POPS NORTH TO SOUTH ARE IN PLACE ON
MONDAY...THEN DECREASING TO 10/20 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BASICALLY VERY NEAR OR AT NORMALS...WITH MAYBE
MORNING LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH MODELS SHOWING SIMILAR SCENARIOS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY
WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH
A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXES ROTATING OVER THE REGION WILL COMBINE
WITH THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN DURING THURSDAY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BRINGING MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.
COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT BEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
&&
.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA. AT 330
AM EST DATA FROM THE DOPPLER RADAR IN RUSKIN WAS SHOWING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. THE FRONT STALLS AROUND THE CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY AND BEGINS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE...THUS ALLOWING FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 80 67 80 64 / 40 20 20 10
FMY 83 69 83 66 / 30 20 30 20
GIF 82 66 81 63 / 40 20 20 10
SRQ 80 67 79 64 / 40 20 20 10
BKV 80 62 79 57 / 40 20 20 10
SPG 79 67 77 67 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...22/AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/PRC
000
FXUS62 KJAX 220826
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
...FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON...
.SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...STACKED LOW ALONG THE LA COAST TRACKS ALONG
THE GULF COAST TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE. WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL PUSHES NORTH INTO NE FL NEAR THE I-10
CORRIDOR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKING IT INTO EXTREME SE GA THIS EVE
BEFORE STALLING OUT. WEAK OCCLUDED LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT BRINGING DRY SLOT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. HAVE GONE LIKELY
POPS ALL AREAS TODAY AND FOLLOWED HPC QPF. PCP ENDS FROM W-E TONIGHT
AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES THE AREA. QUITE A TEMP DIFF NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET. TEMPS IN FAR
NW CORNER OF FCST AREA REMAINING IN THE 50S WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
I-10 GET WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN NEAR 80. WITH FRONT WASHING
OUT IN THE AREA FOG POTENTIAL HIGH NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND HAVE
INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG EVERYWHERE IN THE GRIDS.
SVR WX POTENTIAL TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THAT WOULD DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. WITH THE STRONG WEDGE IN
THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.
THE NAM IS INDICATING EHI INDICES OF 1-1.5 NEAR THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TORNADO. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SEVERE
STORM IN THE HWO FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
OFFSHORE OF THE FL COAST WED AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK
SFC FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER OUR CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF LOW POPS WED AND WED NIGHT. POPS DECREASE THU AS COLD AND DRY AIR
FILTER OVER THE AREA FROM THE NW. LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK THEN A TREND TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AT TAF
SITES AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD ACRS NCNTRL FL...STALLING
OVER NRN FL THIS EVNG. WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF
WRMFNT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT S OF FRONT. TAFS SHOW LOWERING CIGS
EVENTUALLY INTO IFR RANGE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT PSBL DURING AFTN
FOR KGNV IF IT ENDS UP S OF WARM FRONT. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
REGARD TO HOW LOW CIGS GET DURING DAY AND HOW QUICKLY THEY LOWER.
MOS/LAMP GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LOWERING CIGS...BUT DIFFER A
LITTLE ON CIG VALUES BY AFTN...BUT INCREASE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY OF
LOW CIG DVLPMENT.
ATTM DID NOT INCLUDE TSRA IN TAFS GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ISOLD TS IN THE AFTN.
LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE TSRA...ESP KGNV.
MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON CONDITIONS LOWERING FURTHER TO LIFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE TNGT. ATTM...HINTED LOWERING CONDITIONS TOWARD
06Z IN PRIOR TAFS. WITH FRONT STALLING OVER THE AREA...WEAK WINDS...
AND MOIST GROUND FROM FCST RAINFALL...COULD SEE WIDESPREAD LOW
CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH MUCH OF TNGT INTO EARLY TMRW MRNG. CONFIDENCE ON
THIS SCENARIO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN AGREEMENT AMONG DIFFERENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SOURCES.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH EXERCISE CAUTION 20-60NM OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WITH CONTINUED 4-6FT EASTERLY SWELL TODAY.
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS...STALLING OVER FAR
NORTHERN FL AND COASTAL WATERS TNGT AND MON BEFORE SHIFTING S OF THE
AREA TUE. EXPECT SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MON-TUE...BEFORE
INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 59 48 64 47 / 90 30 10 10
SSI 65 57 68 52 / 70 50 10 10
JAX 69 57 75 51 / 70 50 10 10
SGJ 75 64 76 57 / 50 50 10 10
GNV 77 59 78 53 / 60 50 10 10
OCF 79 61 79 55 / 60 50 20 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/PW
000
FXUS62 KTAE 220819
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 04 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1009 MB LOW OVER
EASTERN LA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FL BIG BEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THIS FRONT
TIGHTENED MORE THAN FORECAST...AND WINDS AND SEAS HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL ZONES. VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED THE PARENT SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER MS...AND A MID TROPOSPHERIC DRY SLOT WRAPPING
INTO ITS SOUTHERN FLANK. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW HAS
RECENTLY BEEN OCCLUDING SO IT HAS EXHAUSTED ITS POTENTIAL ENERGY. AS
PREDICTED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE MARITIME TROPICAL
AIRMASS HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...WHICH IS WHERE THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN. WE RECENTLY ISSUED A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
FOR A LARGE...LONG-LIVED...CYCLICAL SUPERCELL PROPAGATING EASTWARD
ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS CELL HAD AN
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE...RADAR...AND LIGHTNING PRESENTATION...AND
WAS PROBABLY PELTING FISH WITH HAIL (OR ELECTROCUTING THEM WITH
LIGHTNING). THE 07 UTC HODOGRAPH FROM THE KTAE RADAR WAS
IMPRESSIVE...WITH 0-6 KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 50 KT AND 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 30 KT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END DURING THE MORNING
HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DRY SLOT CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE LOW AND THE LARGE SCALE Q-G FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN
MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOME OF THE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIRMASS TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND
AND NORTH FL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SBCAPE FROM 500 TO
1000 J/KG (WHICH COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS). ALTHOUGH THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FIELDS WILL BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME...THEY
WOULD STILL SUPPORT A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS THE NAM
AND NAM MOS ARE COOLER THAN THE GFS AND ITS MOS. IT IS UNCLEAR WHY
THIS IS GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS...SO WE
ARE TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS (WHICH IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY).
.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE
ECMWF AND GFS IS IN SOMEWHAT CLOSER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...THE
DEVIL CONTINUES TO BE IN THE DETAILS WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST
FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NEXT SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE MEAN
TROF A LITTLE MORE SHARPLY AND FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...WITH
THE RESULTANT SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH.
SINCE EACH OF THE MODELS HAS CONTINUED TO EDGE A BIT CLOSER TO THE
OTHER...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS AND LEAN
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GFS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS TRANSLATES INTO
MORE CLOUDS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS AND LOWER POPS THAN INDICATED
BY THE EURO. BOTH MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE MEAN TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK AND THEN TREND DOWNWARD TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DOMINATE THE TRI-STATE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL
AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
AND NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS...WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
MVFR TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE TIGHT GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE WARM
FRONT MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE WAVE WATCH MODE INDICATES THAT THE
SEAS MAY NOT SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL TONIGHT. WE ARE NOT
PLANNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED
QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD MEAN NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...AS COOLER
DRIER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 71 50 71 48 71 / 70 20 10 10 10
PANAMA CITY 74 56 70 52 69 / 50 10 10 10 10
DOTHAN 61 46 66 46 65 / 70 20 10 10 10
ALBANY 58 46 67 47 67 / 80 30 10 10 10
VALDOSTA 66 50 71 48 69 / 80 30 10 10 10
CROSS CITY 77 58 75 50 75 / 70 30 10 10 10
APALACHICOLA 74 57 71 53 70 / 60 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...DUVAL
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
000
FXUS62 KMFL 220553
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1253 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN LOW, SO OPTED TO LEAVE OUT VCSH.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SE DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS. AT APF THE
SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW THE WIND
DIRECTION TO BECOME S TO SW INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS HEATING OF THE
DAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR REST OF THE
NIGHT OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL REMOVE THE POP WORDING FOR THE
MAINLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE EVENING UPDATE FOR TONIGHT.
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS COULD STILL SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
TONIGHT...AS THE LAND BREEZES WILL SET UP OVER THE MAINLAND AND
PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO WORKED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SO
THE FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE LESS TONIGHT OVER THE CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MARINE ZONES EVENING UPDATE FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. STARTED WINDS
LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS AND STARTED THE SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AT THE
EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND A SSW SEA BREEZE AT KAPF ARND 19Z. NO
MENTION OF VCSH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DEVELOPING LOW OVER NW GULF
OF MEX OFF TX/LA COAST WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
MOST ENERGY WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT SHOULD MOVE TO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE FRONT LOOSING STEAM AND
STALLING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER
A WARM JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW USUALLY
YIELDS WARMER TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS...WL KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS JUST
FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES SINCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WL
LIMIT SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE DOW
THE PENINSULA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING OF A SERIOUS CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS
INDICATED BY THE PRECIP/OMEGA FIELD AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE GFS IS OVERDOING IT AND SO WL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN LOW SCT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A STRONG ENOUGH
PUSH TO THE FRONT TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG SFC HIGH OF MIXED ORIGIN (PACIFIC/ARCTIC) WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH TO EAST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW
ADVECTING, NOT ONLY LOWER TEMPS, BUT ALSO DRIER AIR DOWN THE
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY E/SE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL NE SWELL (2 TO 3 FEET) WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET BUT MAY
INCREASE ABOVE THAT THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH WITH NW WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED BEHIND IT.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 70 84 69 / 20 30 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 73 82 72 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 85 72 84 72 / 20 20 30 20
NAPLES 83 70 83 67 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KJAX 220248
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
948 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...RAINS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE W AHEAD OF UPPER
LOW WHICH IS PRESENTLY OPENING UP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SFC WARM
FRONT REMAINS S OF THE AREA AND IS NOT PROGGED TO LIFT N INTO THE
AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SUN. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MOSTLY
STRATIFORM OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CLOSER TO THE
GULF COAST. HAVE SCALED BACK ON QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AS WELL AS SUN
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO TONE DOWN WORDING A BIT IN THE OVERNIGHT
PORTION OF THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION...
HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SUNDAY AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPORARY PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO PROVIDE ANY TIMING ON THIS. NOT
EXPECTING FOG TO BE MUCH OF A PLAYER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
THICKEN...LIMITING AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY 4 TO 6 FT SWELLS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 54 62 50 66 / 60 80 30 0
SSI 59 67 58 70 / 40 70 40 0
JAX 59 73 59 75 / 40 70 30 0
SGJ 63 75 64 77 / 30 60 30 10
GNV 60 77 60 76 / 50 60 30 0
OCF 62 80 62 78 / 40 50 30 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
CARROLL/SHULER/KEEGAN
000
FXUS62 KKEY 220212
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
AREA FROM KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S. ONLY
ABOUT THREE DEGREES OF COOLING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO GENTLE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80
DEGREES.
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A DEEP-LAYERED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST...IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN
ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AND DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST BELOW ONE
AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. DESPITE THIS ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES TO ONLY 10 PERCENT FOR TONIGHT...WHICH IS ABOVE ALL
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS. THE CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS HANDLES THIS SITUATION WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ANTICIPATED ON ALL KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EYW AND MTH OVERNIGHT...
WITH SKC-FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. AROUND SUNRISE (12Z)...WE
SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID-CLOUDS AT OR ABOUT FL080.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1914...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS ONLY 61 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER
21ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 95 YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...
THIS HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 61 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE COOLEST HIGH
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................DFM
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 220134 AAB
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
834 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS HEATING OF THE
DAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CWA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR REST OF THE
NIGHT OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL REMOVE THE POP WORDING FOR THE
MAINLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE EVENING UPDATE FOR TONIGHT.
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS COULD STILL SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
TONIGHT...AS THE LAND BREEZES WILL SET UP OVER THE MAINLAND AND
PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO WORKED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SO
THE FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE LESS TONIGHT OVER THE CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MARINE ZONES EVENING UPDATE FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. STARTED WINDS
LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS AND STARTED THE SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AT THE
EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND A SSW SEA BREEZE AT KAPF ARND 19Z. NO
MENTION OF VCSH.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DEVELOPING LOW OVER NW GULF
OF MEX OFF TX/LA COAST WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
MOST ENERGY WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT SHOULD MOVE TO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE FRONT LOOSING STEAM AND
STALLING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER
A WARM JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW USUALLY
YIELDS WARMER TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS...WL KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS JUST
FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES SINCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WL
LIMIT SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE DOW
THE PENINSULA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING OF A SERIOUS CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS
INDICATED BY THE PRECIP/OMEGA FIELD AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE GFS IS OVERDOING IT AND SO WL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN LOW SCT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A STRONG ENOUGH
PUSH TO THE FRONT TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG SFC HIGH OF MIXED ORIGIN (PACIFIC/ARCTIC) WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH TO EAST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW
ADVECTING, NOT ONLY LOWER TEMPS, BUT ALSO DRIER AIR DOWN THE
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY E/SE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL NE SWELL (2 TO 3 FEET) WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET BUT MAY
INCREASE ABOVE THAT THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH WITH NW WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED BEHIND IT.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 70 84 / 10 20 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 83 73 82 / 10 20 20 30
MIAMI 72 85 72 84 / 10 20 20 30
NAPLES 69 83 70 83 / 10 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...17/ERA
000
FXUS62 KTAE 220126
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
830 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE LA COAST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER
OUR COASTAL WATERS AT 00Z. LOCAL RADARS SHOW RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WERE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE.
THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TO A POSITION
AROUND MOBILE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FL/AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND COASTAL FLORIDA ZONES. OTHERWISE...MOST IF NOT ALL ZONES
SHOULD RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL
NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
.MARINE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE INLAND WEST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND FROM THE EAST A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MAY HAVE TO HEADLINE
FIRST PERIOD FOR SCEC CONDITIONS ON THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN AND LOW CIGS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF
THIS EVENING. CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING
MVFR EVERYWHERE BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOW IN THE GULF IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY FILL OVERNIGHT AND BECOME DIFFUSE. THIS WILL SERVE TO TRAP
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. WHILE
THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY AROUND MID MORNING...CIGS WILL
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BARRY/CAMP
000
FXUS62 KTBW 220038
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
738 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHEAST MANATEE AND SOUTHWEST HARDEE COUNTY SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF
SARASOTA. MAIN U/L SUPPORT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH AREA OF WEAKENING SHOWERS MOVING OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 22/06Z) THROUGH MID DAY ON SUNDAY AS
LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM
000
FXUS62 KMFL 212337
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. STARTED WINDS
LIGHT AT 5 KTS OR LESS AND STARTED THE SOUTHEAST SEABREEZE AT THE
EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND A SSW SEABREEZE AT KAPF ARND 19Z. NO
MENTION OF VCSH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DEVELOPING LOW OVER NW GULF
OF MEX OFF TX/LA COAST WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
MOST ENERGY WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT SHOULD MOVE TO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE FRONT LOOSING STEAM AND
STALLING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER
A WARM JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW USUALLY
YIELDS WARMER TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS...WL KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS JUST
FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES SINCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WL
LIMIT SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE DOW
THE PENINSULA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING OF A SERIOUS CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS
INDICATED BY THE PRECIP/OMEGA FIELD AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE GFS IS OVERDOING IT AND SO WL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN LOW SCT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A STRONG ENOUGH
PUSH TO THE FRONT TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG SFC HIGH OF MIXED ORIGIN (PACIFIC/ARCTIC) WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH TO EAST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW
ADVECTING, NOT ONLY LOWER TEMPS, BUT ALSO DRIER AIR DOWN THE
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY E/SE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL NE SWELL (2 TO 3 FEET) WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET BUT MAY
INCREASE ABOVE THAT THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH WITH NW WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED BEHIND IT.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 70 84 / 20 20 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 83 73 82 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI 72 85 72 84 / 20 20 20 30
NAPLES 69 83 70 83 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
000
FXUS62 KMLB 211944
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
OVERNIGHT...STILL JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK
SUN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT CONVERGENCE IS
STILL WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END CHC POPS (30%) FOR THE
ORLANDO METRO NORTHWARD AND TAPER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (20%) SOUTHWARD
TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND MARTIN COUNTY. FEEL...HOWEVER...THAT MOST
OF THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. OUR EAST-
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. PRESENTLY FEEL THAT LOW OVERCAST (STRATUS)
WILL BE MORE OF AN ISSUE LATE OVERNIGHT THAN FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF
ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
SUN...THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH ITS
SLOW MARCH EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
DAY. A TRAILING COOL FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
REMAINING WEST OF THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES EVER SO CLOSER
TOWARD THE REGION. STILL THE FEELING HERE IS THAT THE MAV GUIDANCE
REMAINS TOO HIGH WITH POPS AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POP GRID. WILL GO WITH 20% ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND AS HIGH AS
35%-40% ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY. THOUGH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE AROUND DON`T SEE ANYTHING FROM ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TO
SOAR TO AROUND 80 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SUN NGT-TUE...H50 TROUGH SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO
DAMPEN OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TURNS NEWD THROUGH THE SERN CONUS/
TN VLY SUN NGT. WEAK SFC WAVE WILL REDEVELOP IN BAROCLINIC ZONE
OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD EARLY MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY EDGE NEWD.
COOL FRONT AND ASCD MEAN MOISTURE BAND SLOW QUITE A BIT OVER CTRL
FL MON...THEN ONLY SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE SRN LATE MON INTO TUE. GFS
/NAM GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A WEAK/STRUNG OUT H50 VORTLOBE MEANDERING
OVER ECFL. KETSTRK WINDS ARE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 90KT...
HOWEVER SPEED DIVG OVHD LOOKS RATHER MEAGER. HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED
TO 20-30 AREAWIDE FOR SUN NGT...AND ONLY 20 FOR THE SRN COUNTIES FOR
BOTH MON/TUE. MAINLY NR 80/L80S AREAWIDE FOR MON...FOLLOWED BY SLGT
COOLING OVER THE NORTH AND BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 FOR ALL BUT THE SERN COS...WHERE L80S WILL PREVAIL
ONCE AGAIN.
WED-SAT (MODIFIED PREV DISC)...LONGER TERM MODELS STILL DISAGREE
IN LOCATION OF FRONT OVER THE AREA INTO MID-LATE WEEK MAKING FOR
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MUCH LIKE 00Z...
THE 12Z GFS KEEPS FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO N FL AS WEAK LOW PUSHES OUT
OF THE GULF ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA
WED/EARLY THU. WHILE FCST WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE DRIER
AND FARTHER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT DISPLAYED BY THE GFS
...LATEST TREND IN THE OP-GFS IS WETTER. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THEN WILL NEED TO UP POPS FOR THE CTRL-SOUTH FOR THOSE TIME PDS.
GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO SHOW FRONT GETTING DISPLACED SWD BY LATE
WEEK AS DEEPENING U/L TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH
COOLER TEMPS ADVECTING IN FROM A STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH MORE CONCERNED FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARD EARLY SUN MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT
TAFS WITH SOME LATE NIGHT TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW STRATUS
POTENTIAL.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT...N/NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL VEER TO THE ESE-SE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. E-NE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE WITH SWELL
PERIODS AROUND 10 SEC. SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.
SUN...WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE S-SE AS THE SYSTEM MARCHES
EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION. SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 10-15 KTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE DAY.
SUN NGT-THU...WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT SW SUN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WEAK LOW THAT EVENTUALLY DRAGS THE WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS THE ECFL
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE N-NE BY WED.
WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN AOB 15 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SWELLS UP TO 6 FT OVER THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AOB 4FT LATE MON-WED...WITH
SEAS INCRSG AGAIN THU BEHIND SECONDARY POST-FRONTAL NRLY SURGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 61 80 65 80 / 30 30 30 10
MCO 62 82 66 81 / 30 30 30 20
MLB 66 82 67 80 / 20 30 30 20
VRB 67 82 68 81 / 20 20 30 20
LEE 64 80 65 81 / 30 40 30 10
SFB 62 82 65 82 / 30 30 30 20
ORL 65 81 66 81 / 30 30 30 20
FPR 67 83 66 81 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
000
FXUS62 KKEY 211931
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
WATER VAPOR AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 2 PM CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. A 75 TO 100 KNOT SOUTHERN JET AT 250 MB TRAVERSES
SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH AMERICA FROM THE BAJA...NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS AND THE GULF AND THEN STREAMS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A DISORGANIZED MID AND
UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE OZARKS. THE
FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WIDE BAND OF
THESE JET STREAM WINDS...WITH SPOTTY CIRRUS MOVING WELL OVERHEAD OF
THE KEYS.
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE SURFACE AND MARINE
OBSERVATIONS DETAIL AS OF 200 PM A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WELL
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SURFACE LOW. A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED PASSING
NEAR THE GULF COAST TO THE EAST OF THE LOW AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM INTO
CENTRAL MEXICO. CLOSER TO THE KEYS...VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS JUST A FEW
STUBBORN BUT WEAK LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT BOUNDARIES OVER THE STRAITS.
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. JUST A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LEFT
OVER FROM THE LATE MORNING CONFLUENT BOUNDARY THAT PRODUCED A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE KEYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE
LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF ARE NOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND EAST NEAR 10 MPH
OVER THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...TONIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z
ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW NOW NEAR THE OZARKS WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT DAMPENS OUT...WITH THE LEFTOVER ENERGY OR IMPULSES REACHING THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE KEYS WILL REMAIN BENEATH
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN NORMAL SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET
STREAM...OR ALSO ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP AND WARM
CORE MIDDLE AND UPPER NEAR 590 DECAMETERS AT 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT OF THIS
WILL BE CONTINUED MIDDLE AND UPPER DRYING...WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS
MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS FROM TIME TO TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z ECMWF...NAM...AND
ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY
INTO A FULL LATITUDINAL EAST COAST GYRE BY THANKSGIVING DAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM IS CARVED OUT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEEP MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LATEST TIME HEIGHT
FORECASTS SUGGESTING AMPLE MID LEVEL OMEGA IN PLACE OVER THE KEYS
DURING WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THIS WILL HELP TO ALLOW FOR ABOVE AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. GIVEN THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS...MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER WILL BE
TRANSPORTED SOUTHWARD TO THE KEYS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITHIN LARGE
AND DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS IS THAT LARGE SCALE
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN EITHER THE VERY LOW OR NONEXISTENT
CATEGORIES.
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE 1008 MB GULF
LOW APPEARS TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND SLIDES TO OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE LATEST AVAILABLE 12Z NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE A FAIRLY MOIST LOWER TROPOSPHERE...WITH
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) REMAINING BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING GIVEN THE
LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENCE FLOW IS ALWAYS GREATEST ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SUNNY...WARM AND HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMA...AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE MINIMA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. LIKE THE PRESENT FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER THE GULF...ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON
TUESDAY ALONG THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IN THIS CASE...A
MUCH DEEPER LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE IS INDICATED IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...WITH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) REMAINING NEAR 2.00 INCHES
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING...12Z ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH INDICATIONS THAT WEAK LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS WILL AID IN BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS.
GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...HAVE ONLY RAISED RAIN
CHANCES UP 10 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND OMEGA IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE AREA. SO FOR
NOW WILL ADVERTISE 40 PERCENT FOR THOSE TWO PERIODS...WHICH IS WELL
BELOW THE AVAIL MEX NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR 12 HR POPS FOR
THOSE TWO PERIODS. AFTER THIS FRONT PULLS THRU THE KEYS THURSDAY
NIGHT...DECENT 1000-850 MB COLD THICKNESS ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISLANDS THEREAFTER.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER...DRY AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A GENTLE EAST FLOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS LATER AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT GENTLE TO TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY REGARDING THE POSTING OF FOR MARINE CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEGINNING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 22/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT EYW AND MTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 75 83 74 83 73 / 10 10 20 20 20
MARATHON 75 84 74 84 72 / 10 10 20 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS..............KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR.....ROSS/FUENTES
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KJAX 211922
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...AN NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS TRACKING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH AN OCCLUDED CLOSED SFC LOW SOUTH OF THE
LA COAST. LOCALLY THE JAX CWA WAS BEING DOMINATED BY A SFC RIDGE
THAT WEDGED DOWN THE SE STATES FROM A CENTER OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. A COOL AND STABLE NNE FLOW PREVAILED IN THE LOW LEVELS AND
COMBINED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE SW...MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY ONLY NEAR THE MID 60S ACROSS SE GA TO THE LOW/MID 70S
ACROSS OUR FL ZONES.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...
SYNOPSIS...
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT FROM W-E AS THE GULF LOW TRACKS ALONG
THE COAST TOWARD FL. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WRT TO PRECIP
TIMING AND POP VALUES AND HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH ADVERTISES
THE HIGHEST POPS OF 70-80% BRUSHING OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN ACROSS OUR GA ZONES ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN THE MID/UPR LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MONDAY MAY CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SPRINKLES AS THE SFC LOW OPENS UP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN COOL ACROSS GA WITH MAXES IN THE 60S AND MINS IN THE
50S...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH MAX TEMPS WILL NEAR 80 ACROSS OUR FL ZONES
WITH MINS IN THE LOW/MID 60S. AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
SVR WX POTENTIAL TONIGHT-SUN...
A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FL TONIGHT AS
THE GULF LOW TRACKS EAST. THE NAM12 (MODEL OF CHOICE) POSITIONS THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS N FL AND GENERALLY KEEPS IT NEAR THE FL-GA STATELINE
SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONG WEDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH. NAM12 SFC
WINDS...BOUNDARY LAYER BEST LIFTED INDICES AND 0-1SM SRH VALUES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM
APALACHEE BAY AFTER 09Z TOMORROW MORNING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT...HOWEVER...SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO
ALMOST LACKING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. IT IS NOT UNTIL AFTER 15Z THAT
THE NAM12 INDICATES POSITIVE SFC BASED CAPES. SO...EVEN THOUGH A
FEW STORMS MAY BE ROTATING TOMORROW MORNING...THE CIRCULATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO STABLE LOW LEVELS. MIDDAY
TOMORROW...HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SLOWER TO MOVE PRECIP OUT OF THE
AREA...AND...IF ANY INSOLATION CAN OCCUR...THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLD STRONG OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTN AS
CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE MAIN CONCERN AN ISOLD TOR.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE
HWO ON SUNDAY...AND LEAVE OUT OF ZFP/GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT...
AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OFFSHORE OF THE FL
COAST WED AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
OUR CWA...SO HAVE INDICATED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WED AND WED
NIGHT. POPS DECREASE THU AS COLD AND DRY AIR FILTER OVER THE AREA
FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO VALUES FRI AND SAT WITH
MINS IN THE LOW/MID 40S INLAND WITH MAXES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z.
TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS AS
LOWERING TEMPERATURES INTERACT WITH EASTERLY FLOW REGIME /ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS/. IN ADDITION...VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TONIGHT IN
FOG AND INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOW CEILING/VSBYS WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS WHERE
COMBINED SEAS UPWARDS OF 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE...WITH EASTERLY SWELLS
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE AREA. WILL SEGMENT ZONES AT FERNANDINA BEACH
AS PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WEDGE WILL LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 54 62 50 66 / 60 80 30 0
SSI 59 67 58 70 / 40 70 40 0
JAX 59 73 59 75 / 40 70 30 0
SGJ 63 75 64 77 / 40 60 30 10
GNV 60 77 60 76 / 60 60 30 0
OCF 62 80 62 78 / 50 50 30 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZAPPE/KEEGAN
000
FXUS62 KTAE 211912
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
212 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOW THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE TX/LA LINE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION AND OPENING UP INTO A WAVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
OCCLUDED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE LA COAST WILL CONTINUE ON A
ENE TRACK ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...THEN INLAND AROUND MOBILE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW THIS LOW FILLING THROUGH
THIS TIME AS IT TRACKS OVER SE AL AND INTO GA MONDAY.
RECENT RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER LA/SRN
MS/AL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND INTO OUR SW GA COUNTIES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO SUNDAY AS THIS LOW/WARM FRONT APPROACH.
THIS SLOWER TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE
RAIN CHANCES UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AN INCH THROUGH THIS TIME WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE RESULTING POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. AS A
RESULT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS LOWER. HOWEVER THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WILL GO WITH A BLEND AS BASIC GUIDANCE...AND
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR CONSISTENCY...HOLDING ON TO MORE
CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. AS THE SECOND LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER DRIER AIR
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN NORTHEAST AND INLAND OVER OR AROUND
MOBILE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN WEST NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
A PERIOD OR TWO WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASING WIND AND SEAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN UP TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN TREND DOWN INTO THE
FIRST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO AREA. OVERNIGHT...
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN...LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. SOME
TSRA PSBL AT TLH OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING
DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 57 71 52 72 49 / 80 70 20 10 10
PANAMA CITY 60 73 55 70 51 / 80 40 10 10 10
DOTHAN 54 61 48 65 46 / 80 50 10 10 10
ALBANY 54 61 49 66 47 / 80 70 20 10 10
VALDOSTA 57 66 52 71 49 / 80 70 30 10 10
CROSS CITY 61 76 56 76 52 / 80 70 30 10 10
APALACHICOLA 62 74 57 71 53 / 80 60 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AG/PD/BG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211902
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DEVELOPING LOW OVER NW GULF
OF MEX OFF TX/LA COAST WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
MOST ENERGY WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED COLD FRNT SHOULD MOVE TO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE FRONT LOOSING STEAM AND
STALLING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER
A WARM JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...ALTHOUGH SW FLOW USUALLY
YIELDS WARMER TEMPS OVER EASTERN AREAS...WL KEEP AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS JUST
FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES SINCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WL
LIMIT SUNSHINE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING
CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE DOW
THE PENINSULA TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS
SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING OF A SERIOUS CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS
INDICATED BY THE PRECIP/OMEGA FIELD AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A SERIES
OF SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA UNDER
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. BELIEVE GFS IS OVERDOING IT AND SO WL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN LOW SCT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING
OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A STRONG ENOUGH
PUSH TO THE FRONT TO FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG SFC HIGH OF MIXED ORIGIN (PACIFIC/ARCTIC) WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTH TO EAST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW
ADVECTING, NOT ONLY LOWER TEMPS, BUT ALSO DRIER AIR DOWN THE
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
.MARINE...SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY E/SE THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. A SMALL NE SWELL (2 TO 3 FEET) WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET BUT MAY
INCREASE ABOVE THAT THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH WITH NW WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED BEHIND IT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 70 83 70 84 / 20 20 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 83 73 82 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI 72 85 72 84 / 20 20 20 30
NAPLES 69 83 70 83 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...17/ERA
000
FXUS62 KTBW 211815
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
115 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE TX/LA BORDER REALLY TAKING SHAPE. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD. GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS SYSTEM TAKING A
NORTHEAST TRACK TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LOSING ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY FALLING APART AFTER IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC.
GFS AND NAM START TO DIVERGE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. GFS WANTS TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER TAMPA BAY
BEFORE STALLING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. NAM SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
NATURE COAST BEFORE BREAKING DOWN AND WASHING OUT BY MONDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING KEEPING A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN FURTHER
NORTH WHILE DROPPING POPS DOWN TO 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY.
BY TOMORROW...MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY SO RAISED POPS TO 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE BAY BUT KEPT A
CHANCE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THERMODYNAMICS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE NOT ENTIRELY IMPRESSIVE SO WILL MAINTAIN
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW.
BY MONDAY...FRONT STARTS TO WASH OUT AS THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
PUSHES EAST OF THE CWA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH
DECREASED RAINFALL CHANCES.
DAILY HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...SW FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP
VORTICITY MAXES ROTATING OVER THE REGION WITH A STALLED SURFACE
FRONT OVER S FLORIDA AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.
OUR AREA TO BE BETWEEN THESE SURFACE SYSTEMS EARLY WITH DEEPEST
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS NEAR STALLED FRONT FOR SLIGHTER
HIGHER POPS WHILE COLD FRONT NEARS THROUGH MIDWEEK. COLD FRONT TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH DRY AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS REST OF TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AS WELL AROUND AROUND 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH TOMORROW AS
A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE BUT
WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE STATUS. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
TEMPORARY CHOPPY SEAS. THE FRONT SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WX CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 67 80 66 / 20 40 40 20
FMY 84 69 83 68 / 20 30 30 20
GIF 83 65 82 65 / 20 40 40 20
SRQ 81 67 80 66 / 20 40 40 20
BKV 82 64 80 61 / 20 50 40 20
SPG 80 70 79 66 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...25/DAVIS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211734
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1234 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE...NOT
AFFECTING ANY EASTERN TERMINAL. KEPT SCT CLOUD DECK AT 3000 FT
UNTIL 22/00Z...AFTER THAT KEPT THE CLOUD COVER AS FEW. PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...THEREFORE WILL AMEND
IF NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR KTMB AND KAPF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER APF, PBI, AND TMB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE REDUCED VIS THROUGH
13Z WITH BR. THIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY MID MORNING FROM THE NE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KAMX CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS ACTIVITY AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE PALM
BEACH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM
WINDS...AND NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH 8 AM EST. MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY
DIFFUSE ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW...WILL
KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS...AND WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA-WIDE...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOW-END CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR EASTERN ZONES
WITH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHERE A WEAK PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT AXIS MAY IGNITE DEVELOPMENT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
LOOS ITS IDENTITY RATHER QUICKLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGH LEVELS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NON-ZERO...WILL NOT
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WILL
USE CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW LEADING TO WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKIER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME MARITIME INFLUENCE POSSIBLE ALONG BOTH COASTS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF A WEAK FRONT
STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY CONTINUING.
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPER AND LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH IT AND DEVELOP A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID/LATE WEEK. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING AN END
TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES... AND RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FROM THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SMALL...1-3 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOCALLY
HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
AND COMBINED SEAS OF 1-3 FEET. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO MARINE
WEATHER CONCERNS...THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHEN NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND ALLOW SEAS TO INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET
FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC/GULF MARINE ZONES. STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH INCREASINGLY ROUGH CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 50-55 PERCENT. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT
IN LOWER RH VALUES AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 83 69 83 / 20 40 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 83 72 84 / 20 30 30 30
MIAMI 73 84 72 84 / 20 30 30 30
NAPLES 68 84 69 82 / 20 40 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RGH
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...17/ERA
000
FXUS62 KTAE 211436
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NWRN GULF OR JUST OFF THE LA COAST WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF.
RECENTLY ANIMATED VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE OVER THE TX COAST WITH PLENTY OF MID-TO-UPPER
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION. EXPECT
THIS LOW/WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE ON A ENE TRACK THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES TODAY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
COME LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THIS LOW/WARM FRONT TRACK
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE TX COAST TRACKS ENE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE MODELS ALL INDICATE IT WEAKENING OR
FILLING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LEAD TO A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT FOR
OUR AREA TONIGHT...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND CEILINGS AFFECTING ABY...TLH...VLD
THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS DURING MUCH OF DAY..BUT LOWERING CEILINGS
BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INTO AREA. OVERNIGHT... EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH RAIN...LOW CEILINGS AND FOG.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GIBBS/GOREE
000
FXUS62 KKEY 211423
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
WATER VAPOR AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AS OF 9 AM CONTINUE TO DEPICT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS. A NEAR 100 KNOT JET AT 250 MB TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AS IT MOVES ACROSS BAJA...NORTHERN
MEXICO...THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. A DISORGANIZED UPPER
LOW OVER OKLAHOMA DIVES THE NORTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM
OF THE OF THE JET. THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH A WIDE BAND OF THE
SOUTHERN JETSTREAM...WITH CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE SURFACE AND MARINE
OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WHILE A COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH FROM THE SYSTEM TO
CENTRAL MEXICO. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING
ILLUSTRATES A GENTLE BUT MOISTENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 10000 FEET...WITH PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) THAT HAS
RISEN IN 24 HOURS FROM 1.46 INCHES OR ALMOST 1.5 INCHES FROM ONLY
1.08 INCHES YESTERDAY MORNING. ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS AVAILABLE
ALONG THE 300K SURFACE...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DELIVERING BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000
FEET.
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ISLANDS
AND ADJOINING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR SCANS SHOW A DWINDLING AREA OF
LIGHT SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE WATERS WITHIN 30 NM OFFSHORE OF THE
FLORIDA REEF BETWEEN SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT AND EAST SAMBO LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE REGISTERING
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OUT AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SLIDE THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD AND FILL A FEW
DECAMETERS THROUGH 00Z. JUST A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE TRANSPORTED
OVER THE KEYS THRU THE DAY.
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...THE WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST BY DAYS END. DRYER AIR IN THE MIDDLE
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY FILTER ACROSS THE KEYS FROM THE EAST LATER
THIS MORNING...PUTTING AN END TO ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. WILL JUST DO A LAST
MINUTE UPDATE THIS MORNING TO TAKE OUT TRANSITIONAL WORDING AND
REMOVE SHOWER THREAT OVER THE ISLANDS.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 22/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT EYW AND MTH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF EYW THIS
MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS..............KASPER
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR.....ROSS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KJAX 211423
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
923 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...
.UPDATE...PATCHY DENSE MORNING FOG IS SLOWLY LIFTING AND LOW STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO STORM SYSTEM. A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE CONTINUES DOWN THE SE REGION FROM A HIGH CENTER OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS BRINGING COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE
LOCAL CWA. GIVING AMT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND COOL NNE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR GA ZONES TO MID/UPPER 70S FL ZONES. LOWERED
POPS FOR A SILENT 10% ACROSS OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY ZONES THIS AFTN.
TONIGHT...00Z/06Z MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WHICH IMPACTS HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW. DESPITE FRONTAL PLACEMENT DISCREPANCIES...BEST PHASING OF
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ENERGY LIFTING NNE ACROSS OUR GA ZONES DURING
THE DAY SUN AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS
OUR FL ZONES SUN AFTN. NOT A BIG RAIN EVENT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLD ROTATING STORMS SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
CRG WHERE LIFR CIGS CONTINUE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AT CRG...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR PREVAILING
THROUGH TODAY. CIGS LOWER TONIGHT AS GULF OF MEXICO STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH VISIBILITY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AFTER
MIDNIGHT DUE TO VCSH.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCEC FOR OFFSHORE LEGS. COMBINED SEAS
ARE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT WITH THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS LIKELY ACROSS OUR FL
LEG SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE...BUT AN ISOLD 6 FT SEA IS POSSIBLE WELL
OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY AS NNE WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 53 65 50 / 10 60 80 40
SSI 67 59 70 57 / 10 50 70 50
JAX 71 58 74 57 / 10 40 70 50
SGJ 71 62 76 61 / 10 40 60 40
GNV 74 59 77 59 / 10 50 60 40
OCF 77 62 79 61 / 10 40 50 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/ZAPPE/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 211413
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
912 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENT-TODAY...CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT A
MINIMUM OVERNIGHT NEGATING EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME LOWER STRATUS NEAR KLEE & KISM WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING LEAVING A MAINLY HIGH
BROKEN-OVERCAST SKY. GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN LOWERING POP CHANCES
TODAY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONES ONCE TO TAKE OUT MORNING FOG
MENTION BUT MAY HAVE TO DO SO AGAIN TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER...THOUGH
IT WILL BE MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS TYPE CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
TONIGHT...(PREVIOUS)...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS STILL PROGGED TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN A LITTLE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PRE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD STAY
TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WILL HOLD ONTO INHERITED SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES...WHICH ACTUALLY AGREE WITH THE LATEST MOS VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...ANTICIPATED FOG THIS MORNING DID NOT OCCUR AS FCST DUE
TO CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD REDUCING MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
LOW CIGS AT KISM/KLEE SHOULD BREAK SHORTLY...OTHERWISE VFR WITH
MAINLY HIGH OVERCAST.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...EAST/NORTHEAST SWELLS STILL PERSISTENT
AROUND 4.3 FT AT BUOY 41009 THIS MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO VEER MORE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AOB 10
KTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. NO CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI
000
FXUS62 KTBW 211412
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...MORNING FOG STILL LINGERS IN PARTS OF LEE COUNTY NEAR
RSW AND FMY SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. DID SEE PATCHY FOG AREA WIDE
TODAY WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA RECEIVING THE THICKEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT. SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH TOMORROW AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES NORTH
OF OUR REGION. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
ONLY ANTICIPATE MINOR UPDATES AND ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...ONLY PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SW FL THAT WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT SHORTLY.
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS INCREASING TODAY INTO THE 10-12KT RANGE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
CURRENT MARINE FORECAST IN ON TRACK WITH BRINGING IN SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE THIS EVENING IN OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 67 80 65 / 20 40 40 20
FMY 84 69 83 68 / 20 20 30 20
GIF 83 66 82 65 / 20 30 40 20
SRQ 81 67 81 66 / 20 30 40 20
BKV 82 63 80 61 / 20 40 40 20
SPG 80 70 79 66 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARIN...20/BARRON
AVIATION...25/DAVIS
000
FXUS62 KKEY 211335 RRA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
REMAINED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...A
FEW SMALL SHOWERS HAVE MIGRATED THROUGH THE LOWER AND WESTERNMOST
MIDDLE KEYS. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY IN OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE KEYS. SURFACE WISE...A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE (1008 MB) SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REACHING FROM THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACROSS THE MARINE
DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FLORIDA
BAY.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
FORMIDABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE DAMPENING OUT CONSIDERABLY
AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE...A VERY BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND SUNDAY...PULLING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.
THEREAFTER...A WEAK WESTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL NOSE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SO THE QUESTION BECOMES...WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION?
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION...A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 300 K
WILL HELP ERODE THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED POPS
WILL BE INSERTED FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BE MAINTAINED FOR
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE WISE...WINDS VEERING TO
SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING OF A DEGREE OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DUE TO A LIGHT EASTERLY TRAJECTORY.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH GFS
INDICATING WHAT APPEARS SPURIOUS UNDULATIONS DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MIGRATING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. IN ADDITION...IT INDICATES AN EASTERLY WAVE
WILL TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. BECAUSE OF
THIS ACTIVITY...A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS SHOWN
FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WHICH FINALLY KICKS OUT THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ON THE OTHER HAND...ECMWF APPEARS A LITTLE
SMOOTHER AND REALISTIC WITH A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THURSDAY...WHICH HELPS
PULL AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. WITH THIS
SOLUTION...ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL
GENERATE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THEREAFTER. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW...WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT 30 PERCENT POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GENTLE TO MODERATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REGARDLESS...NO EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE MTH AND EYW TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 82 75 82 74 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON 82 75 82 74 / 10 10 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.................APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....MS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211124
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
624 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER APF, PBI, AND TMB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE REDUCED VIS THROUGH
13Z WITH BR. THIS MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY MID MORNING FROM THE NE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KAMX CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS ACTIVITY AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE PALM
BEACH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM
WINDS...AND NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH 8 AM EST. MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY
DIFFUSE ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW...WILL
KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS...AND WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA-WIDE...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOW-END CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR EASTERN ZONES
WITH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHERE A WEAK PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT AXIS MAY IGNITE DEVELOPMENT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
LOOS ITS IDENTITY RATHER QUICKLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGH LEVELS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NON-ZERO...WILL NOT
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WILL
USE CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW LEADING TO WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKIER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME MARITIME INFLUENCE POSSIBLE ALONG BOTH COASTS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF A WEAK FRONT
STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY CONTINUING.
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPER AND LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH IT AND DEVELOP A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID/LATE WEEK. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING AN END
TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES... AND RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FROM THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SMALL...1-3 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOCALLY
HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
AND COMBINED SEAS OF 1-3 FEET. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO MARINE
WEATHER CONCERNS...THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHEN NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND ALLOW SEAS TO INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET
FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC/GULF MARINE ZONES. STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH INCREASINGLY ROUGH CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 50-55 PERCENT. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT
IN LOWER RH VALUES AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 83 69 / 10 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 83 72 / 10 20 30 30
MIAMI 85 73 84 72 / 10 20 30 30
NAPLES 86 68 84 69 / 10 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KMFL 210958
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KAMX CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED
LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS ACTIVITY AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE PALM
BEACH COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACROSS
INLAND AREAS...THE COMBINATION OF GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM
WINDS...AND NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH 8 AM EST. MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY
DIFFUSE ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY...AS PWATS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO STEERING FLOW...WILL
KEEP HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TODAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF LIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS...AND WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INLAND. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AREA-WIDE...AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF LOW-END CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH
RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR EASTERN ZONES
WITH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHERE A WEAK PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT AXIS MAY IGNITE DEVELOPMENT AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND OFFSHORE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
LOOS ITS IDENTITY RATHER QUICKLY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TOWARD THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO FOCUS
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN HIGH LEVELS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS NON-ZERO...WILL NOT
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER AT THIS TIME...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WILL
USE CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY...WITH EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW LEADING TO WARMEST TEMPS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKIER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AT
LEAST SOME MARITIME INFLUENCE POSSIBLE ALONG BOTH COASTS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/GFS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE LAST NIGHT...WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF A WEAK FRONT
STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY CONTINUING.
THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL LINGER IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPER AND LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST. A STRONG UPPER LOW IS
STILL FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER STRONG CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH IT AND DEVELOP A POTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MID/LATE WEEK. IT STILL APPEARS AS IF
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING AN END
TO SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES... AND RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER/DRIER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FROM THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SMALL...1-3 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...CONTRIBUTING TO A LOCALLY
HIGHER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST
AND COMBINED SEAS OF 1-3 FEET. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO MARINE
WEATHER CONCERNS...THROUGH MID-WEEK...WHEN NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND ALLOW SEAS TO INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET
FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC/GULF MARINE ZONES. STRONGER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH INCREASINGLY ROUGH CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 50-55 PERCENT. A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MAY RESULT
IN LOWER RH VALUES AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 83 69 / 10 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 74 83 72 / 10 20 30 30
MIAMI 85 73 84 72 / 10 20 30 30
NAPLES 86 68 84 69 / 10 20 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KTAE 210953
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 09 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
A 1008 MB LOW OFF THE TX COAST AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (AND
COOL DRY AIR) OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILED THE
LOW TO THE SOUTH...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOW. A SMALL BUT FAIRLY VIGOROUS MCS HAD DEVELOPED JUST EAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. THESE STORMS HAD A SHEARED...SUPER
CELL APPEARANCE. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED A TROUGH
PROPAGATING EASTWARD ALONG THE TX COAST...WITH ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE MODEL
RUNS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A CONSENSUS SHIFTING TOWARD A
WEAKER LOW WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. IN FACT...THE MAJORITY OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL BUT DISSIPATES THE SURFACE LOW AS IT QUICKLY
OCCLUDES NEAR OR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT...THE PROBABILITY
OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT...AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS SLOW-DOWN
MAY BE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE DEPTH OF DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION...AS IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR THE PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO
MOISTEN THE VERY DRY MID TROPOSPHERE.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS SMALL AT THIS TIME...IT IS
NOT NEGLIGIBLE. THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...LIFT...AND INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
BETWEEN 06 UTC TONIGHT AND 18 UTC SUNDAY. THE THREAT WILL BEGIN
OFFSHORE THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH FL
AND EXTREME SOUTH GA SUNDAY. THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE LOCAL
DEEP LAYER AND LOW LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE QUESTION...AS
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR...IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED SUPER CELLS. THE CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST...LIMITING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER LAND. BY THE TIME THE INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER LAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE BEST SHEAR AND LIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE WEAKENED
AND/OR MOVED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE SPC FORECASTS A 2 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TORNADO WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT...AND A 5 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. WE SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
ISOLATED SUPER CELLS NEAR AND SOUTH OF OUR COASTLINE...BUT THEN
THEY WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INLAND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
REMEMBER THAT EVEN THE BEST MODELS RARELY RESOLVE SMALL SCALE
DETAILS (LIKE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIR FROM
THE GULF) BEYOND 24 HOURS...SO IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT IF THE
COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND MORE THAN EXPECTED THERE WOULD BE AN
ENHANCED SEVERE STORM RISK.
.LONG TERM...
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THE RESULTING POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. AS A
RESULT...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS LOWER. HOWEVER THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. WILL GO WITH A BLEND AS BASIC GUIDANCE...AND
LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION FOR CONSISTENCY...HOLDING ON TO MORE
CLOUDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADJUSTING TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. AS THE SECOND LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...BOTH MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER DRIER AIR
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WILL SHOW TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...AND BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND AREAS OF LOW MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS SPREADING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
DAYBREAK...AS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS FOR KVLD AND KTLH. ELSEWHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY CIRRUS. BY AFTERNOON A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL SPREAD THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LATER AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING FORECAST BY THE MODELS...IT APPEARS LESS
LIKELY THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. THE
00 UTC WAVEWATCH INDICATES LOWER SEAS THAN 24 HOURS AGO...BUT WE
LOWERED ITS SEAS FORECAST A FOOT OR TWO MORE AS THE MEAN OF THE
MODEL SURFACE WINDS ARE LOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 21 UTC SREF SUPPORTS THIS IDEA OF LOWER
WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. AFTER THIS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH BUT CLOUDS WILL PERSIST..AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF. SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO FILTER INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 72 58 71 51 71 / 20 80 50 10 10
PANAMA CITY 70 60 72 57 70 / 30 80 40 10 10
DOTHAN 65 51 64 49 67 / 30 80 50 20 10
ALBANY 66 53 64 49 68 / 20 80 60 20 10
VALDOSTA 71 56 69 52 72 / 10 80 70 30 10
CROSS CITY 76 57 76 58 77 / 10 70 60 20 10
APALACHICOLA 71 62 73 57 70 / 20 70 40 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
000
FXUS62 KJAX 210934
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
425 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY TONIGHT...
...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...
.SHORT TERM (SAT-MON)...PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE GULF WHICH
IS HELPING THE DENSE FOG FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD DENSE. EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE FOG LIFTING
BY MID MORNING. TODAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH HOLDS FIRM. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN GULF. TONIGHT
WILL BE THE TRANSITION AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF COAST. BULK OF PCP BEGINS ACROSS WEST
HALF AFTER 06Z OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY
12Z SUN...WARM FRONT WILL DRAPED OVER NE FL AND WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO SE GA DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. HELICITIES
LOOK IMPRESSIVE EARLY SUNDAY AM BUT INSTABILITY LIMITED. WILL
PROBABLY HAVE SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO COOL DOWN IN STORE. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING CONSIDERABLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN SE GA SO SKIES
THERE REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU
WED THEN BELOW NORMAL THU-FRI AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN U.S. ALLOWING FOR MUCH COOLER AIR TO COME IN. SLIGHT CHC
POPS ON WED-WED NITE WITH FRONT OTHERWISE POPS NEAR NIL.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE NLY AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS ARE 3-5 FT WITH
SOME 6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS WINDS PICK UP A BIT. SCEC IS
HEADLINED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AS
THE SFC LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W. BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST BY MON NIGH WITH
WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO NLY BY TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...CONDS ARE BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND VLIFR MAKING TAF
FORECASTS A CHALLENGE. ANTICIPATE CONTINUING MVFR VIS AROUND SSI AND
OCNL VLIFR ARE REMAINING TAFS WITH LOW LEVELS SATURATED. IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED BY AROUND 13Z/14Z WITH VFR DURING THE DAYTIME THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM BRINGS IN A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW INSERTED PROB GROUPS
FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS BY 02Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 68 53 65 50 / 10 60 80 40
SSI 69 59 70 57 / 10 50 70 50
JAX 73 58 74 57 / 10 40 70 50
SGJ 73 62 76 61 / 10 40 60 40
GNV 76 59 77 59 / 20 50 60 40
OCF 79 62 79 61 / 20 40 50 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/ARS
000
FXUS62 KTBW 210855
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
...EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...AT 3 AM EST OBSERVATIONS ARE AGAIN
DEPICTING DEVELOPING FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ABUNDANT L/L
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WIDE SPREAD FOG THIS MORNING...
BECOMING DENSE AT TIMES.
MEANWHILE A DEVELOPING M/L SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/FRONT COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE PANHANDLE
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE SLOWS DOWN A BIT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE AND LOOKS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OF
LOWER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SEEMS THAT THE M/L TROUGH WEAKENS
RAPIDLY AND MUCH OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. BUT PLENTY OF L/L MOISTURE
AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
SUNDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON
SUNDAY. 20 POPS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE...THEN A
GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EARLY MORNING WITH 50 PERCENT
NORTH...40/30 PERCENT CENTRAL AND 20 SOUTH. WILL ALSO KEEP 40/30
POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
QUICKLY CLEAR OUT LATE SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WILL DEEPEN SOME AND
SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
DURING MIDWEEK THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING NORTH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN AND HAVE LEFT THE 20 POPS FOR THE FAR SOUTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND 20 TO 30 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. DURING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 30 POPS AT THIS
TIME. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH MUCH COOLER DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY 16Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...FOG WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 KT AT
TIMES...THEN APPROACH 20 KT LATE IN THE WEEK. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN
WELL INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN RUSKIN FL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 67 80 65 / 20 40 40 20
FMY 84 69 83 68 / 20 20 30 20
GIF 83 66 82 65 / 20 30 40 20
SRQ 81 67 81 66 / 20 30 40 20
BKV 82 63 80 61 / 20 40 40 20
SPG 80 70 79 66 / 20 40 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...22/AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/PRC
000
FXUS62 KMLB 210817
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
317 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY-TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST
GULF MOVES TO AROUND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. EXPECT EARLY MORNING
STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. A
NORTH FLOW EARLY WILL VEER TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD RETURN A
MODEST AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ONLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH MOS POPS ARE
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THERE.
TONIGHT...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS STILL PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN A LITTLE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND PRE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. WILL HOLD ONTO INHERITED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES...WHICH
ACTUALLY AGREE WITH THE LATEST MOS VALUES.
SUN-MON...LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE PROGRESSION AND
WEAKENING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LOOKS TO NOW NOT REACH THE
AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT AS IT THEN STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON. MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS OVER ECFL LOOKS TOO
HIGH WITH MOISTURE FAIRLY LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO HAVE UNDERCUT
MOS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL KEEP POPS FOR SUN CAPPED AT 40% MAINLY
OVER LAKE COUNTY CLOSER TO LOW AND STALLED BOUNDARY OVER N FL WITH
30% OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ALSO DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
FRONT WILL REMOVE THUNDERSTORM WORDING FROM THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
AS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE SOUTH MON MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO
HAVE ONLY INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY
POSITION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S SUN AND THEN WILL SEE SOME
SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE NORTH AND BEHIND THE FRONT MON WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 FROM ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD.
TUE-FRI...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN LOCATION OF FRONT
OVER THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK MAKING FOR CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. 00Z GFS KEEPS FRONT LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF DRAGS IT NORTHWARD INTO N FL AS WEAK LOW
PUSHES OUT OF THE GULF ADVECTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE
DRIER AND FARTHER SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT DISPLAYED BY THE
GFS AS THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 20% NEAR
THE BOUNDARY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ECFL. MODELS THEN
CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONT GETTING DISPLACED SOUTHWARD BY LATE WEEK AS
DEEPENING U/L TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH COOLER
TEMPS ADVECTING IN FROM A STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LOW LEVELS LOOK SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
STILL EXPECT THAT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL BE AREAS OF
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING. INLAND AREAS SHOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AS
FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS VEERED TO EASTERLY ACCORDING TO
THE CANAVERAL PROFILES...WHICH SHOULD BRING A LITTLE STRATOCU INTO
THE COAST AND INHIBIT FOG. SOME INTERIOR TERMINALS COULD AGAIN
EXPERIENCE LIFR UNTIL ABOUT 13Z.
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER TONIGHT BUT SO WILL THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
AND AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.
MOS IS SHOWING SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY NORTHEAST-EAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE AND KEEP SEA
HEIGHTS ELEVATED...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT
NORTH-EAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...STILL WITH SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
SUN-WED...WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SW SUN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND DRAG A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN
AOB 15 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS UP TO 6 FT OVER
THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AOB 4 FT MON-WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 77 64 80 64 / 10 30 30 20
MCO 81 64 82 65 / 10 30 30 20
MLB 80 67 81 66 / 10 20 30 20
VRB 82 66 83 66 / 10 20 30 20
LEE 80 65 80 64 / 20 30 40 20
SFB 81 64 82 65 / 10 30 30 20
ORL 81 66 81 66 / 10 30 30 20
FPR 82 66 83 65 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KMFL 210543
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1243 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER ISOLATED
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH CEILINGS BRIEFLY DEVELOPING AND
DISSIPATING AT NEAR 3K FT, OTHERWISE AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP, BUT
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. TMB AND APF ARE THE TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE REDUCED VIS, BUT PBI, OPF, AND FXE MAY ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING WITH VIS OF 3
TO 5 MILES IN BR.
A LAND BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND
LAST UNTIL AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE, AND THEN GIVE WAY TO THE
NE FLOW. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
UPDATE...
THE FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EAST
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE CWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SO FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE A
GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE UP THE FOG WORDING TO WIDESPREAD OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR INLAND METRO AREAS OF THE
EAST COAST AND THE WEST COAST FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE VISIBILITIES
COULD GET CLOSE TO 1/4 OF MILE EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT DECIDE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS OR NOT.
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT...DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING OF THE DAY. SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MARINE ZONES EVENING UPDATE FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH
SOUTHWEST TO THE LOXAHATCHEE SWAMP. LEFT OUT VCSH AT KPBI FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME ESE AT
8-9 KTS EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, SE AT 7 KTS ARND 15Z
WITH A SW SEABREEZE DVLPG AROUND 19Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTH (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF IT) TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF OF MEX. SFC TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE E-SE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
NRN GULF/SE U.S. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT STALLING. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RESULT IN RATHER WARM AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AND THIS COULD WORK AGAINST
IT. WL NOT MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH IT SOUTH OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME VARIABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW 6 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 69 85 67 / 10 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 71 85 70 / 10 20 30 20
MIAMI 85 70 85 69 / 10 20 30 20
NAPLES 85 67 83 67 / 10 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
000
FXUS62 KMLB 210312
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE H100-H70 RIDGE BLANKETING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. SE EXTENSION OF THE SFC RIDGE
HAS A RESPECTABLE PGRAD AND IS GENERATING A SHALLOW LYR OF 15-20KT
NRLY WINDS AS SEEN ON THE USAF 915HZ PROFILER AND THE 00Z KXMR
SOUNDING.
THESE WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT SHOULD THEY
MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH...THOUGH LATEST RUC80 ANALYSIS INDICATES
WINDS ARE WEAKER INLAND. INDEED...THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING SHOWS WINDS
AOB 5KTS THRU THE H100-H80 LYR. AFTN PACKAGE DOES HAVE GREATER FOG
CONCENTRATION OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES...SO NO NEED FOR UPDATES THIS
EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 21/06Z AREAS MVFR BR DVLPG ALL SITES. BTWN 21-08Z-21/12Z TEMPO
IFR VSBYS/LIFR CIGS ALNG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...IFR CIGS ALONG
THE COAST. BCMG VFR ALL SITES ~21/14Z.
&&
.MARINE...
LCL BUOY NETWORK MEASURING N/NE WINDS ~10KTS WITH A 4-5FT NERLY
SWELL. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY TO THE E/NE OVERNIGHT AS THE H100-H70
RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE
MATCHING UP WELL WITH THE AFTN FCST...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
BRAGAW
000
FXUS62 KJAX 210257
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
957 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND...
...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...
.PUBLIC UPDATE...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
HAS ENABLED ONSHORE /EASTERLY/ FLOW TO ESTABLISH TODAY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES...WHILE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT HAS MAINTAINED
DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE
MOISTURE TO INCREASE AOA 700 MB OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INITIALLY TRAVERSING THE AREA TRAILING BY SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT. FOG TOOLS INDICATE FOG WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO BELOW A
HALF-MILE. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED IN THE ZFP. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST AGAIN TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST NAM12 HAS COME IN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
WITH FOG ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH PATCHY
FOG ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT VQQ..JAX..AND SSI. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...AMENDMENTS WERE ISSUED TO INCLUDE PREVAILING GROUPS OF
IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN PATCHY DENSE FOG.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING 4 TO 6 FT SWELLS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES WILL BE NECESSARY.
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA WITH MOISTURE AXIS RESPONSIBLE
FOR FOG THE PAST FEW NIGHTS SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WITH THE
RETURN OF AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE AXIS HAS
ONCE AGAIN TAKEN A POSITION ALONG OUR IMMEDIATE COAST AND HAS
RESULTED IN SCT CU DEVELOPMENT. TO THE WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR
PLAYER FOR NE FL AND SE GA THIS WEEKEND.
FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN
TIER...FOG TOOLS HAVE NOT BEEN AS AGGRESSIVE FOR THIS CYCLE.
STILL...SOME INDICATIONS OF PATCHY DENSE CONDITIONS FROM THE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PLOTS AND LATEST NUMERIC GUIDANCE.
THIS MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT GRID SET AND ONLY LIMITED CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
SAT STILL LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH THE GFS
OPERATIONAL THE FASTEST...THE SREF THE SLOWEST...AND THE GS
ENSEMBLE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO THE LEAN TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS
JUST LOW END SCT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
THROUGH 00Z SUN. THEREAFTER...THE MAIN MOISTURE CORE WILL PUSH
INTO THE GA PORTION AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
WITH HIGH END LIKELY POPS. BY 12Z SUN...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY
FOR THE AREA AND THE INTRODUCTION OF SCT TSRA TO THE GRIDS.
AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH LOW NOW PROGGED TO REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE REGION AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO PUSH THROUGH SUN...DYNAMICS
ARE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND THE GA PORTION WHERE 06 KM SHEAR WILL BE THE
HIGHEST. 0-1KM HODOGRAPHS ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE NORTH
OF THE AREA. LIMITING FACTOR AS USUAL WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH
MODELS SHOWING A MAX 500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 0 TO -2 LIS. GOOD
DIFFLUENT SIGNATURE ALOFT COULD HELP OVERCOME THESE DEFICIENCIES
AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN LATEST HWO.
.LONG TERM...ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO
COOL DOWN IN STORE. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH HOW FAR MOISTURE
WILL SURGE AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND WILL LEAVE GRIDS WITH
NIL POPS BASED ON LATEST GFS RUN. DEEPER US EAST COAST TROUGH AND
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
$$
ZAPPE/SHULER
000
FXUS62 KKEY 210214
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S. ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY
MOIST FOR THE END OF NOVEMBER...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST
UNDER ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CONSTANT TONIGHT. LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LIMIT
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
OVERNIGHT. THIN...WISPY CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL SPEED ACROSS THE
CELESTIAL DOME FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HANDLES THIS SITUATION
WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES EXPECTED ON ALL KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS...WITH SKC-FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1873...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 54 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 20TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 136 YEARS LATER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................DFM
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 210146 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
THE FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON HAS MOVED NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EAST
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE CWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SO FOG FORMATION SHOULD BE A
GOOD BET ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE UP THE FOG WORDING TO WIDESPREAD OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS...WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR INLAND METRO AREAS OF THE
EAST COAST AND THE WEST COAST FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE VISIBILITIES
COULD GET CLOSE TO 1/4 OF MILE EARLY SATURDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT
SHIFT DECIDE IF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS OR NOT.
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE BY
MIDNIGHT...DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING OF THE DAY. SO WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING OVER THE
PALM BEACH ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MARINE ZONES EVENING UPDATE FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING HWO UPDATE.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH
SOUTHWEST TO THE LOXAHATCHEE SWAMP. LEFT OUT VCSH AT KPBI FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME ESE AT
8-9 KTS EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, SE AT 7 KTS ARND 15Z
WITH A SW SEABREEZE DVLPG AROUND 19Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTH (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF IT) TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF OF MEX. SFC TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE E-SE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
NRN GULF/SE U.S. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT STALLING. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RESULT IN RATHER WARM AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AND THIS COULD WORK AGAINST
IT. WL NOT MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH IT SOUTH OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME VARIABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW 6 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 66 83 69 85 / 10 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 84 71 85 / 10 10 20 30
MIAMI 69 85 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
NAPLES 65 85 67 83 / - 10 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KTAE 210046
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
750 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL IMPACT OUR CWA OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF SOUTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI THIS EVENING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE IT LIFTS
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TO A POSITION ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LA AT 12Z SAT WITH THE WARM FRONT STRETCHED EASTWARD OVER OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. WE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IF
IT OCCURS...IT WILL BE DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME
FRAME. UNTIL THEN...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN REACHING OUR WESTERNMOST
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO UPDATE TO GRIDS OR ZONES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
AVIATION...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST
SOME HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NON ZERO.
COULD STILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KTLH AND
KVLD...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MORNING. AFTER CLOUDS LIFT IN
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY...ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON IS THE PROBLEM OF THE FORECAST. MODELS VERY DIFFERENT IN
HANDLING APPROACHING LOW. HAVE GONE WITH HEDGE FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON...WITH PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
BARRY/CAMP
000
FXUS62 KTBW 210006
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE REGION
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. IDEAL LIGHT NORTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL POOL AND CONDENSE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL
BE LOCALLY DENSE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO
DRIVE WITH CAUTION AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS WHEN DRIVING IN FOG.
&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG AND LOW CIGS AND A
COMBINATION OF BOTH. HAVE USED THE CONDITIONS FROM LAST NIGHT AS A
GUIDE HOWEVER THE SKIES ARE CLEARER TONIGHT AND SO MORE FOG IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY INDICATE SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING SO WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE FORECAST AND CONDITIONS WILL
BE WORST 11-14Z. VFR WILL RETURN AFTER THEN.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...LJ
000
FXUS62 KMFL 202347
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
647 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH
SOUTHWEST TO THE LOXAHATCHEE SWAMP. LEFT OUT VCSH AT KPBI FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME ESE AT
8-9 KTS EAST TERMINALS ARND 15Z AND FOR KAPF, SE AT 7 KTS ARND 15Z
WITH A SW SEABREEZE DVLPG AROUND 19Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTH (OR WHATEVER IS LEFT
OF IT) TONIGHT AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF OF MEX. SFC TO LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE E-SE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA AS THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS
NRN GULF/SE U.S. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
CHANCES OF RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY, HOWEVER MOST ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRANSFERRED NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT STALLING. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT COULD RESULT IN RATHER WARM AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO BE EXPECTED AND THIS COULD WORK AGAINST
IT. WL NOT MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN STATIONARY JUST
NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL GIVE A
STRONG ENOUGH PUSH TO THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH IT SOUTH OF
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK.
MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KTS. WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME VARIABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SEAS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW 6 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 83 69 85 / 10 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 84 71 85 / 10 10 20 30
MIAMI 69 85 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
NAPLES 66 85 67 83 / - 10 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
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