[top]
000
FXUS62 KMFL 090001
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
701 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH STRONG/GUSTY EAST WINDS REMAINING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTATIONS OF A
GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND...DID INCLUDE VCSH FOR DURATION OF
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG ATLANTIC COAST...WITH VERY BRIEF LOW-VFR
CIGS /BKN030/ POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRA. ALSO MENTIONED VCSH
BEYOND 14Z AT APF...AS PERIPHERAL SHRA ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST...ALONG WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. ENE SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
18G28 KNOTS FLL/PBI TO 12G22 AT APF. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO
ESE AT ALL TERMINALS ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM
SPEEDS 16G26 KNOTS EAST COAST...AND 14G24 AT APF.
70/DD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALL LOCAL WATERS AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS EAST COAST TO CONTINUE...
DISCUSSION...NHC FORECASTS IDA TO MOVE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...NEARING THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AND BECOMING
EXTRA -TROPICAL AND DISSIPATING AS THE SYSTEM GETS ENTANGLED WITH
A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND INTO AND THROUGH S
FLA LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THE REMAINS OF IDA DEVELOP A STRONG
LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OFF OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT REDEVELOPS AND INCREASING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARD
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEST WEEKEND.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM BUT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NNE AND IDA TO THE
W...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN HIGH AND IT MAY BE EXTENDED TO
THE AFFECT THE COASTAL/METRO ZONES OF THE E COAST BUT WILL HAVE
THE EVENING SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION AFTER SOME MORE DATA
RECEIVED. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT LEAST THROUGH TUE. FOR
THE MOST PART S FLA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ALL
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE W. STRAY SHOWERS ON THE
BREEZE THOUGH WILL OCCUR AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. WINDS BECOME SE TUE WITH A GRADUAL
MOISTURE INCREASE WITH POPS A LITTLE HIGHER.
EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SUN...CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING
WED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COMBINED
WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
INCREASING WINDS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WITH A LESSOR CHANCE OF RAIN FAVORING THE E COASTAL AREAS AS
SHRA WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC.
MARINE...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ALL LOCAL
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUE INTO WED. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE
THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...SIGNIFICANT SWELLS MAY IMPACT THE ATLC WATERS LATE IN THE
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 83 78 86 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 84 79 85 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 77 85 77 86 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 70 86 70 84 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-
FLZ174.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ656-GMZ657-GMZ676.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTAE 082234 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
510 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
21Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER FLAT NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY/SOUTHERN CANADA.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO/TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1027MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE THE REGION.
AND...OF COURSE ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE IDA MOVING NORTH FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
AT 300 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 510 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 976MB OR
28.82 INCHES.
CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH
RESPECT TO IDA. THE CHALLENGING PART EVOLVES FROM THE COMPLEX
INTERACTION THAT IDA IS GOING TO HAVE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE EVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IDA AND THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST.
OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR OUR LAND ZONES WITH JUST
SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY ROUGH ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT WILL GIVE MORE
DETAILS ON THIS IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
HURRICANE IDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
DURING MONDAY. THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
ESSENTIALLY THIS MEANS THAT THE STORM WILL BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND START RESEMBLING A MORE TYPICAL WINTER-TYPE
STORM. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW RAPIDLY THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR. THIS PROCESS APPEARS NOW THAT IT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO
OCCUR AND IDA MAY APPROACH THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH AT
LEAST SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AS A RESULT HURRICANE WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE COASTLINE (SEE
WATCHES/WARNING SECTION BELOW). REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STORM
TYPE...COASTAL EFFECTS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE SAME. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH GALE
FORCE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE ENTIRE MARINE
AREA AND ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THESE
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING SURF IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
AREAS OF MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO
5 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY IN APALACHEE BAY...ESPECIALLY FOR MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS
ALONG FRANKLIN AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
PANHANDLE STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COAST.
AS IT STANDS NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WILL NOT BE THE WIND...BUT RATHER RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ONCE THE STORM
HAS COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED TO EXTRA-TROPICAL IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PASSING JUST TO OUR
WEST/NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTION ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN BANDS. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SET UP WILL DEPEND HIGHLY
ON THE EXACT PATH OF IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF IDA...BUT THE TIME FRAME
WOULD BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHEN THE DETAILS BECOME MORE
CERTAIN...FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTER LOOKS TO MOVE MORE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THAN
THE SOUTHEAST...THUS THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE A COUPLE OF
BREEZY DAYS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS FINALLY MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS BOTH
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS OF
15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST TAF
LOCATIONS. STILL...VLD...ABY...AND DHN MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS AND BR SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MID MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SURFACE HEATING. WIND GUSTS TO
20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ROUGH PERIOD UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HURRICANE IDA TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS ALREADY RESULTING IN SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS. THIS CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE FURTHER OVERNIGHT
WITH HURRICANE WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN LEGS AND GALE
WATCHES IN EFFECT FURTHER EAST. HURRICANE IDA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST WEST OF OUR MARINE LEGS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED. THE
REMNANTS OF IDA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER STRONG NW WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE IDA/THE COLD FRONTAL MERGER. DUE TO EXPECTED WET WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS...THUS NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 58 76 66 74 54 / 0 30 90 80 30
PANAMA CITY 63 75 67 73 55 / 10 60 100 70 30
DOTHAN 57 73 62 70 50 / 10 30 100 80 30
ALBANY 54 77 63 71 52 / 0 10 90 80 30
VALDOSTA 57 78 64 76 55 / 0 10 80 80 40
CROSS CITY 59 80 68 77 56 / 0 20 80 80 40
APALACHICOLA 65 75 67 75 55 / 10 60 90 70 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN...GULF.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN...GULF...WAKULLA.
GM...GALE WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION/FIRE WEATEHR...AUSTIN/FOURNIER
LONG TERM...GODSEY
000
FXUS62 KTAE 082214
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
510 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
21Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER FLAT NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY/SOUTHERN CANADA.
BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING APPROACHES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO/TEXAS.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1027MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE THE REGION.
AND...OF COURSE ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE IDA MOVING NORTH FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
AT 300 PM CST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 510 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 976MB OR
28.82 INCHES.
CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH
RESPECT TO IDA. THE CHALLENGING PART EVOLVES FROM THE COMPLEX
INTERACTION THAT IDA IS GOING TO HAVE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE EVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IDA AND THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST.
OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT FOR OUR LAND ZONES WITH JUST
SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY ROUGH ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT WILL GIVE MORE
DETAILS ON THIS IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
HURRICANE IDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
DURING MONDAY. THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
ESSENTIALLY THIS MEANS THAT THE STORM WILL BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND START RESEMBLING A MORE TYPICAL WINTER-TYPE
STORM. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW RAPIDLY THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR. THIS PROCESS APPEARS NOW THAT IT WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO
OCCUR AND IDA MAY APPROACH THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH AT
LEAST SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. AS A RESULT HURRICANE WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE COASTLINE (SEE
WATCHES/WARNING SECTION BELOW). REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STORM
TYPE...COASTAL EFFECTS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE SAME. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH GALE
FORCE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE ENTIRE MARINE
AREA AND ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS. THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THESE
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING SURF IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
AREAS OF MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO
5 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF HIGH MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY IN APALACHEE BAY...ESPECIALLY FOR MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS
ALONG FRANKLIN AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE
PANHANDLE STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED. COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES ARE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COAST.
AS IT STANDS NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WILL NOT BE THE WIND...BUT RATHER RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ONCE THE STORM
HAS COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED TO EXTRA-TROPICAL IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PASSING JUST TO OUR
WEST/NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONNECTION ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN BANDS. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SET UP WILL DEPEND HIGHLY
ON THE EXACT PATH OF IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF IDA BUT THE TIME FRAME
WOULD BE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHEN THE DETAILS BECOME MORE
CERTAIN...FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTER LOOKS TO MOVE MORE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THAN
THE SOUTHEAST...THUS THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE A COUPLE OF
BREEZY DAYS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS FINALLY MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS BOTH
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS OF
15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST TAF
LOCATIONS. STILL...VLD...ABY...AND DHN MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS AND BR SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MID MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SURFACE HEATING. WIND GUSTS TO
20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATER PART OF THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ROUGH PERIOD UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HURRICANE IDA TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH IS ALREADY RESULTING IN SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS. THIS CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE FURTHER OVERNIGHT
WITH HURRICANE WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN LEGS AND GALE
WATCHES IN EFFECT FURTHER EAST. HURRICANE IDA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
JUST WEST OF OUR MARINE LEGS MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED. THE
REMNANTS OF IDA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER STRONG NW WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST THEN SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE IDA/THE COLD FRONTAL MERGER. DUE TO EXPECTED WET WEATHER OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS...THUS NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 58 76 66 74 54 / 0 30 90 80 30
PANAMA CITY 63 75 67 73 55 / 10 60 100 70 30
DOTHAN 57 73 62 70 50 / 10 30 100 80 30
ALBANY 54 77 63 71 52 / 0 10 90 80 30
VALDOSTA 57 78 64 76 55 / 0 10 80 80 40
CROSS CITY 59 80 68 77 56 / 0 20 80 80 40
APALACHICOLA 65 75 67 75 55 / 10 60 90 70 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN...GULF.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN...GULF...WAKULLA.
GM...GALE WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION/FIRE WEATEHR...AUSTIN/FOURNIER
LONG TERM...GODSEY
[top]
000
FXUS62 KJAX 081946
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...T.C. IDA TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BREEZY EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST WITH LESS AS YOU MOVE
INLAND. A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED AT TIMES ON RADAR BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED. WILL LEAVE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH 4PM.
TONIGHT...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR A FEW MID/UPPER 50S ACRS INLD SERN GA.
MONDAY...T.C. IDA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GOMEX WITH MAIN OUTER
RAIN BANDS REMAINING IN THE ERN GOMEX. ENOUGH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ANOTHER MILD AND BREEZY DAY WITH LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND MAX TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT...T.C. IDA`S GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS FIRST OF
WEAKENING RAIN BANDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL BE
MILD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY...T.C. IDA WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND WILL PUSH
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
LIKELY RANGE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS. HPC QPF FORECAST HAS
BACKED OFF A LITTLE BIT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT STILL EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ONCE AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN EVENTUAL TRACK OF EXTRATROPICAL IDA
AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL SHIFT INTO THE WRN ATLC...MAKES FOR A
CHALLENGING FORECAST. GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM/TPC TRACK AND
HAVE TRIED TO FOSTER SOME SORT OF MODEL BLEND AND HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS TO KEEP A COLLABORATED POP/WX
FIELD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STILL SOME CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BUT WILL BE DIMINISHED IF GFS IS CORRECT AND DRY SLOT
PUNCHES ACRS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE BLENDED MAX TEMP FORECAST AND
EXPECT LOWER 70S ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SFC
LOW OFF THE SERN U.S./FLORIDA COAST AND THIS WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT
ON THE BACKSIDE AND WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH NORTH WINDS AT 20
TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY.
ISOLD SHOWERS WILL MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND DRIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN BUT
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...BUT HAVE
KEPT JUST SILENT 10% POPS IN FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AN ISSUE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BY MON AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST THIS CYCLE
WITH HURRICANE IDS STILL OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMBINE THIS
WITH EXTREME MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND AN EXPECTED TRANSITION TO
EXTRATROPICAL AT SOME POINT AND CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR THIS
FORECAST. AFTER COORDINATION...HAVE DETERMINED THE 12Z ECMWF TO BE
THE BEST COMPROMISE IN THIS SITUATION AS IT BRINGS LOW ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR IN LINE WITH NHC GUIDANCE AND THEN OFF OUR
NORTHEAST COAST...MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN OPERATIONAL
GFS. GFS JUST DOESNT SEEM A VIABLE OPTION IN THIS SITUATION GIVEN
THE LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE AND LATEST
OPERATIONAL BEING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THAT ENVELOPE.
USING THE NEW ECMWF SOLUTION WILL CERTAINLY YIELD CONTINUED SCA
FOR THE OFFSHORE PORTION INITIALLY...BUT WILL ALSO SEE SOME OF THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INCREASING THE GRADIENT. MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THE NEED FOR A GALE WATCH WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST ISSUANCES.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LOOKS ON TARGET AND WILL GO AHEAD AND
EXTEND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 54 78 61 74 / 0 20 50 70
SSI 66 76 69 75 / 0 20 50 70
JAX 61 79 67 78 / 10 20 50 60
SGJ 68 80 70 80 / 10 20 40 60
GNV 60 81 66 80 / 10 20 40 60
OCF 62 82 68 81 / 0 20 30 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER-ST
JOHNS.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FERNANDINA BEACH
TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
HESS/DEESE/WALKER
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMLB 081945
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY CONDITIONS...ROUGH SURF...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...AND
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEK...
TONIGHT/MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
WEST AS HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO OPEN WATERS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT BTW THESE SYSTEMS WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUING. WILL LIKELY NEED LAKE WIND ADVISORIES OVER MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE AREA AGAIN MONDAY AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
TREASURE AND SOUTHERN SPACE COASTS. INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED CONVERGENT SHOWER BANDS TO FORM OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
PUSH ONSHORE TOMORROW SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE MODERATING ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW.
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HURRICANE IDA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NRN
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ON THE FAR PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS SE LOW LVL FLOW AND
MOISTURE CONTINUE ON THE INCREASE. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
20-30 PCT RANGE MON NGT. IDA SHOULD BEGIN HER EASTWARD TURN ON
TUESDAY NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LVL FLOW TO VEER
TO S/SSE LOCALLY WITH BREEZY WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
COULD SEE SOME OF THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OUTER RAIN BANDS AFFECT LAKE
COUNTY LATE TUESDAY...OTHERWISE LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE TREASURE
COAST. IDA SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND
WEAKEN ACROSS THE N FL. STILL MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TWD THE AREA TUE INTO EARLY WED...HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS BUT SHOULD NOT SEE SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN OUR AREA. FORECAST GETS MORE
CHALLENGING DURING THE DAY ON WED INTO THU...AS IDA EITHER MOVE
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS OR CONTINUES NE TWD THE MID ATLC AND BOMBS OUT
OFFSHORE THE NC CAROLINA COAST AS ANOTHER TROUGH ABSORBS THE SYSTEM.
IF THE STRONGER LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC MATERIALIZES WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNW-NNE AND GUSTY FOR LATE WEEK. GFS IS DEEPER
WITH LOW AND KEEPS THE FLOW MORE BACKED TO THE NNW PORTENDING COOLER
TEMPS AND DEEP DRYING. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS FLOW MORE NNE WHICH WOULD
KEEP CSTL TEMPS UP AT NIGHT...BUT OVERALL COOLER FOR LATE WEEK.
EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WED NGT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE
DECREASED POPS AND WENT COOLER ON TEMPS BUT NOT AS COOL AS THE
LATEST TWO GFS RUNS.
QUICK LOOK AT 12Z ECMWF HAS THE REMAINS OF IDA MOVING OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK AND STALLING NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS WITH WINDY NORTH FLOW AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. ALREADY HAD STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE FORECAST SO FOR
NOW HAVE RE-INTRODUCED SOME LOW COASTAL POPS INTO THU. LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMAINS OF IDA LATE THIS
WEEK...WITH COASTAL IMPACTS OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ...ROUGH SURF
AND BEACH EROSION.
FRI-SAT...GFS INDICATES FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE TWD THE WEEKEND
WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING WINDS AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO. ECMWF HAS OTHER
IDEAS WITH REMNANT LOW STILL STALLING EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE NOT
MADE CHANGES TO THIS TIME PERIOD AS OF YET.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO TONIGHT BUT PICK
UP QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH EASTERLY FLOW INCREASING TO
16-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SCA IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BTW HURRICANE IDA BUILDING NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20-25 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ALSO...ADDITIONAL BUILDING
OF SEAS IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AS EASTERLY FETCH INCREASES.
TUE-FRI...HAVE EXTENDED SCA INTO TUE WITH SSE WINDS TO 20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE AND SEAS 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE. STILL
FORECASTING NORTHERLY SURGE AFTER THE REMAINS OF IDA MOVE BY OFF TO
THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. NEXT SURGE WILL HAVE A DRIER CAA
COMPONENT...WITH SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH DISPERSION VALUES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH GUSTY E-SE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 81 72 81 / 10 20 30 50
MCO 67 82 69 82 / 10 20 30 50
MLB 74 82 76 83 / 10 20 20 30
VRB 75 82 76 83 / 10 20 20 30
LEE 67 83 70 82 / 10 20 30 50
SFB 68 83 71 83 / 10 20 30 50
ORL 67 83 69 83 / 10 20 30 50
FPR 76 83 76 83 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INDIAN
RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
[top]
000
FXUS62 KKEY 081926
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM BIG PINE KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS
OVER LAND ARE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONLY ABOUT THREE DEGREES
OF COOLING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE SERVICE AREA WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN HURRICANE IDA IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT. THE LARGE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
STRONG EAST WINDS TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.
A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IDA MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. RAINFALL WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS THE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IDA SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE SERVICE AREA. AS A RESULT...POPS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL
BE ADVERTISED NEAR OR BELOW THE LOWEST OF NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS. IDA OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA WILL BE NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. NOTHING
MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT.
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE KEYS. THE GFS NUMERICAL MODEL IS QUICKEST...
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
TOO QUICK. BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL INVADE THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
DECREASED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 30
TO 35 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS. A GALE WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR GULF WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE
WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. A GALE
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR GULF WATERS AND ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF
THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BE THAT AS IT MAY...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL
KEYS WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ATLANTIC WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM FL035 TO FL100 WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM 070-090 DEGREES
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO 10K FEET
WILL ALSO BE FROM THE EAST AT SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. PILOTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ON
ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE. THERE IS AN ACTIVE AIRMET IN EFFECT FOR
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE KEYS FLIGHT AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FAST
MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER THE ISLAND TERMINALS THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF THIS POSSIBILITY REMAINS UNCLEAR...THEREFORE
NO MENTION OF THESE IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL ISSUE TIMELY AMENDMENTS
AS NEEDED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1888...0.6 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 8TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS
121 YEARS LATER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLZ076-077-078.
GM...GALE WARNING FOR GULF WATERS AND ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF THE
WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...GMZ032-033-054-074-075.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL WATERS...
GMZ031-052-053-072-073.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.............DR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 081903
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
..WIND ADVISORY PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 7
PM THIS EVENING...
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ALL LOCAL WATERS AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS EAST COAST TO CONTINUE...
.DISCUSSION...NHC FORECASTS IDA TO MOVE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...NEARING THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AND BECOMING EXTRA
-TROPICAL AND DISSIPATING AS THE SYSTEM GETS ENTANGLED WITH A COLD
FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND INTO AND THROUGH S FLA LATE
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. THE REMAINS OF IDA DEVELOP A STRONG LOW PRES
SYSTEM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OFF OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. COMBINED
WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
REDEVELOPS AND INCREASING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARD THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEST WEEKEND.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM BUT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NNE AND IDA TO THE W
...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN HIGH AND IT MAY BE EXTENDED TO THE
AFFECT THE COASTAL/METRO ZONES OF THE E COAST BUT WILL HAVE THE
EVENING SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION AFTER SOME MORE DATA RECEIVED.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT LEAST THROUGH TUE. FOR THE MOST
PART S FLA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS ALL MODELS KEEP
THE BULK OF MOISTURE TO THE W. STRAY SHOWERS ON THE BREEZE THOUGH
WILL OCCUR AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. WINDS BECOME SE TUE WITH A GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE
WITH POPS A LITTLE HIGHER.
.EXTENDED PERIOD...WED THROUGH SUN...CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASING WED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COMBINED WITH THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...INCREASING
WINDS CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A
LESSOR CHANCE OF RAIN FAVORING THE E COASTAL AREAS AS SHRA WILL BE
MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC.
&&
.MARINE...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ALL LOCAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE TUE INTO WED. WINDS/SEAS INCREASE THU INTO
NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...SIGNIFICANT SWELLS
MAY IMPACT THE ATLC WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 83 78 86 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 84 79 85 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 77 85 77 86 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 70 86 70 84 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ067-FLZ068-
FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTBW 081827
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
127 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE
HURRICANE IDA MOVES NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND IDA WILL
CREATE STRONG GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON MONDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IDA WILL PASS WELL
WEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND RAINBANDS ON THE EXTREME EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF IDA SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS.
THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
HURRICANE IDA IN THE LONGER RANGE...BUT AS IDA TRANSITIONS TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NEAR THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BEGINS TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE EAST...THIS
SHOULD PUSH RAINBANDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ONSHORE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NATURE COAST ON TUESDAY. ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST...TIDES MAY BECOME A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY
NORTH OF TAMPA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IDA WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THIS AND ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF IDA VIA NHC...BUT THE
NAM IS MUCH SLOWER IN ITS FORWARD MOTION COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF
AND HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA STILL OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SCENARIO WITH A DEEPENING BAROCLINIC LOW
MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EAR;Y ON THURSDAY.
AT THE MOMENT PREFER THE FASTER LOOKING GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND WILL
LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. IN ANY CASE CASE AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN TANDEM
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AN ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL DEPICT SCATTERED RANGE POPS (40%) ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES STRONG WIND FIELDS AND HIGH SHEAR VALUES TO THE EAST
OF IDA WILL KEEP AN INCREASED THREAT FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BAY
AREA NORTH.
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND FLORIDA WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS
THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS...THEN RETURN TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT THEN INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS VERY TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION AND HURRICANE IDA MOVING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
&&
.MARINE...CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL DETERIORATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH OUTER BANDS FROM THE
HURRICANE MOVING OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...WITH SEAS CLIMBING TO 10 FEET OR GREATER.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE LATE TUESDAY AS IDA MOVES INLAND
AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 85 71 80 / 10 20 30 60
FMY 70 86 71 83 / 10 20 30 50
GIF 68 85 69 81 / 10 20 30 50
SRQ 68 84 72 82 / 10 20 30 50
BKV 64 84 68 80 / 10 20 30 60
SPG 70 84 72 80 / 10 20 30 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM THIS
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT FOR THE TAMPA
BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM
000
FXUS62 KMFL 081735
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1235 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS. ERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20G30KT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AT ERN TERMINALS SO WILL NOT INDICATE MUCH IF ANY
DECREASE EXCEPT AT KAPF WHERE A BIT LESS NOCTURNAL MIXING WILL
OCCUR. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SOME TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. ISOLD SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHRA MAY HIT ERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY RAIN BANDS OVER GULF FOR APPROACH
TO KAPF TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT SO DID NOT
INCLUDE IN TAF THERE. CIGS COULD RUN AROUND 6000 FT FOR VERY BRIEF
PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 815 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
.WIND ADVISORY PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES 8 AM
THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...
.HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WITH
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...
DISCUSSION...HURRICANE IDA IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS MORNING. NHC FORECASTS IDA TO MOVE NNW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TURNING E-SE WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND
DISSIPATING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
IDA WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TIGHT...ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY AREA WIDE TODAY. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH
EXPECTED...AND EVEN UP TO 40 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...IT WILL BE
WINDY TOO...BUT THINKING WINDS WILL BE A FEW MPH LESS AND
ANTICIPATE THE STRONGER GUSTS TO BE LESS FREQUENT. THIS IS WHY
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...BUT DAY SHIFT
CAN ASSESS THIS WITH OBS TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED.
OTHERWISE...AS IDA TRACKS UP THE CENTRAL GULF...SOME 400 MI WEST
OF NAPLES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED WEST OF THE AREA OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA DRY WITH JUST A FEW FAST MOVING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS TURN SE BY TUESDAY...WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS GULF COAST BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES SO LOW SO HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER FOR TUE. DUE TO IDA BEING SO FAR TO THE WEST...THE
ONLY IMPACTS NOW EXPECTED LOCALLY ARE THE WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE
HEAVY RAIN/TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN GULF.
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR
THU...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SO WENT WITH DECREASING POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT NOW BOTH THE 08/00Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA FURTHER NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN BOTH MODELS BOMB A LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WOULD HAVE MAJOR MARINE IMPLICATIONS. ECWMF EVEN THEN HAS
THIS LOW MAKING A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WHILE WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY.
MARINE...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING IN EFFECT FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A GALE WARNING. DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS
WHETHER OR NOT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDE TUE BUT THEN BUILD BACK UP BY THU BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THE
STRONG LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE LATEST GFS AND
ECWMF DEPICT...THEN A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 83 78 86 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 84 79 86 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 77 85 77 86 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 70 88 71 86 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ067-FLZ068-
FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KTAE 081525 CCB
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1020 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING. BIG PICTURE FIRST. 14Z WATER VAPOR
AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER FLAT NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY/SOUTHERN CANADA. SEEING BROAD
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HELPING TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER FAIR...DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA. LONGWAVE
TROUGHING IS MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1029MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE THE REGION.
AND...OF COURSE ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE IDA CURRENTLY SPINNING HER
WAY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
FIRST THINGS FIRST THOUGH...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 75 TO 80 RANGE. GET OUT
THERE AND ENJOY IT.
VERY INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH RESPECT TO IDA. THE CHALLENGING PART EVOLVES FROM
THE COMPLEX INTERACTION THAT IDA IS GOING TO HAVE WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE EVER TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST.
HURRICANE IDA WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL THEN BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
ESSENTIALLY THIS MEANS THAT THE STORM WILL BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND START RESEMBLING A MORE TYPICAL WINTER-TYPE
STORM. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW RAPIDLY THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR...WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE KIND OF WATCHES/AND OR WARNINGS
THAT BECOME NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OR STORM TYPE...COASTAL
EFFECTS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE SAME. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY REACH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THESE
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING SURF IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN APALACHEE
BAY...ESPECIALLY FOR MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG FRANKLIN AND
WAKULLA COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE STORM TIDES OF 3
TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT BE WIND...BUT RATHER RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. ONCE THE STORM HAS COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED TO
EXTRA-TROPICAL IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN DEFORMATION
ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST/NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDS.
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT PFN WHERE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT. SHORT DURATIONS OF
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY OCCUR AT DHN...ABY...AND VLD LATE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAY ADD TEMPO GROUPS TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES INTO TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS WE EXPECT
TO HAVE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN LEGS ON
MONDAY...WITH SCA LEVELS FURTHER TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...WILL NEED
TO BREAK OUT THE CWF INTO 3 GROUPS TEMPORARILY THIS PACKAGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THE HAZARDS...TIMING...AND WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 78 58 76 67 76 / 00 05 40 70 70
PANAMA CITY 78 63 77 68 76 / 00 10 60 80 60
DOTHAN 74 55 75 65 73 / 00 05 50 80 60
ALBANY 76 53 75 65 73 / 00 05 30 70 70
VALDOSTA 79 56 77 67 75 / 00 05 30 70 70
CROSS CITY 82 59 82 67 79 / 00 05 30 70 70
APALACHICOLA 77 65 76 70 77 / 00 10 60 80 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL COASTAL
ZONES.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN
FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MROCZKA
AVIATION...AUSTIN/FOURNIER
MARINE...MROCZKA/GOULD
000
FXUS62 KTAE 081523 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1020 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING. BIG PICTURE FIRST. 14Z WATER VAPOR
AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER FLAT NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY/SOUTHERN CANADA. SEEING BROAD
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HELPING TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER FAIR...DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA. LONGWAVE
TROUGHING IS MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1029MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE THE REGION.
AND...OF COURSE ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE IDA CURRENTLY SPINNING HER
WAY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
FIRST THINGS FIRST THOUGH...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 75 TO 80 RANGE. GET OUT
THERE AND ENJOY IT.
VERY INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH RESPECT TO IDA. THE CHALLENGING PART EVOLVES FROM
THE COMPLEX INTERACTION THAT IDA IS GOING TO HAVE WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE EVER TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST.
HURRICANE IDA WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL THEN BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
ESSENTIALLY THIS MEANS THAT THE STORM WILL BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND START RESEMBLING A MORE TYPICAL WINTER-TYPE
STORM. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW RAPIDLY THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR...WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE KIND OF WATCHES/AND OR WARNINGS
THAT BECOME NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OR STORM TYPE...COASTAL
EFFECTS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE SAME. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY REACH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THESE
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING SURF IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN APALACHEE
BAY...ESPECIALLY FOR MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG FRANKLIN AND
WAKULLA COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE STORM TIDES OF 3
TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT BE WIND...BUT RATHER RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. ONCE THE STORM HAS COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED TO
EXTRA-TROPICAL IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN DEFORMATION
ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST/NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDS.
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT PFN WHERE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT. SHORT DURATIONS OF
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY OCCUR AT DHN...ABY...AND VLD LATE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAY ADD TEMPO GROUPS TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES INTO TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS WE EXPECT
TO HAVE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN LEGS ON
MONDAY...WITH SCA LEVELS FURTHER TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...WILL NEED
TO BREAK OUT THE CWF INTO 3 GROUPS TEMPORARILY THIS PACKAGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THE HAZARDS...TIMING...AND WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 78 58 76 67 76 / 00 05 40 70 70
PANAMA CITY 78 63 77 68 76 / 00 10 60 80 60
DOTHAN 74 55 75 65 73 / 00 05 50 80 60
ALBANY 76 53 75 65 73 / 00 05 30 70 70
VALDOSTA 79 56 77 67 75 / 00 05 30 70 70
CROSS CITY 82 59 82 67 79 / 00 05 30 70 70
APALACHICOLA 77 65 76 70 77 / 00 10 60 80 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM
KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT
20 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN
FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MROCZKA
AVIATION...AUSTIN/FOURNIER
MARINE...MROCZKA/GOULD
000
FXUS62 KTAE 081522
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1020 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
LOTS TO TALK ABOUT THIS MORNING. BIG PICTURE FIRST. 14Z WATER VAPOR
AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A RATHER FLAT NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTY/SOUTHERN CANADA. SEEING BROAD
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES HELPING TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER FAIR...DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY TO THE FORECAST AREA. LONGWAVE
TROUGHING IS MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG 1029MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN INTO THE THE REGION.
AND...OF COURSE ALL EYES ARE ON HURRICANE IDA CURRENTLY SPINNING HER
WAY THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IDA`S CURRENT INFO IS AS FOLLOWS:
LAT LON WINDS PRESSURE MOVEMENT.
FIRST THINGS FIRST THOUGH...FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 75 TO 80 RANGE. GET OUT
THERE AND ENJOY IT.
VERY INTERESTING AND CHALLENGING FORECAST UNFOLDING FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH RESPECT TO IDA. THE CHALLENGING PART EVOLVES FROM
THE COMPLEX INTERACTION THAT IDA IS GOING TO HAVE WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE EVER TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST.
HURRICANE IDA WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
MONDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL THEN BEGIN INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN WHAT IS REFERRED TO AS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
ESSENTIALLY THIS MEANS THAT THE STORM WILL BEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND START RESEMBLING A MORE TYPICAL WINTER-TYPE
STORM. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW RAPIDLY THIS TRANSITION WILL
OCCUR...WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE KIND OF WATCHES/AND OR WARNINGS
THAT BECOME NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OR STORM TYPE...COASTAL
EFFECTS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE SAME. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAY REACH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE EXTENDED DURATION OF THESE
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING SURF IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN APALACHEE
BAY...ESPECIALLY FOR MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG FRANKLIN AND
WAKULLA COUNTIES. FURTHER WEST ALONG THE PANHANDLE STORM TIDES OF 3
TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL NOT BE WIND...BUT RATHER RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. ONCE THE STORM HAS COMPLETELY TRANSITIONED TO
EXTRA-TROPICAL IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN DEFORMATION
ZONE/FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE PASSING JUST TO OUR WEST/NORTH.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION
ON ITS EASTERN SIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BANDS.
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY AT PFN WHERE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT. SHORT DURATIONS OF
MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY OCCUR AT DHN...ABY...AND VLD LATE THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAY ADD TEMPO GROUPS TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR FLYING WEATHER THROUGH
TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES INTO TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...THE FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS WE EXPECT
TO HAVE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN LEGS ON
MONDAY...WITH SCA LEVELS FURTHER TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...WILL NEED
TO BREAK OUT THE CWF INTO 3 GROUPS TEMPORARILY THIS PACKAGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THE HAZARDS...TIMING...AND WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT
CONDITIONS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 78 58 76 67 76 / 00 05 40 70 70
PANAMA CITY 78 63 77 68 76 / 00 10 60 80 60
DOTHAN 74 55 75 65 73 / 00 05 50 80 60
ALBANY 76 53 75 65 73 / 00 05 30 70 70
VALDOSTA 79 56 77 67 75 / 00 05 30 70 70
CROSS CITY 82 59 82 67 79 / 00 05 30 70 70
APALACHICOLA 77 65 76 70 77 / 00 10 60 80 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM
KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT
20 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN
FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...MROCZKA
AVIATION...AUSTIN/FOURNIER
MARINE...MROCZKA/GOULD
000
FXUS62 KJAX 081436 AAA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
935 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...BREEZY DAY WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...
.UPDATE...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 20 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PERIODS OF
STRATO-CU CLOUDS ONSHORE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AND MOSTLY SUNNY FURTHER INLAND. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE EXPECTED TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10%. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
WILL MIX DOWN BREEZY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE AND OVER THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND AND REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SCT/BKN STRATO-CU MOVING INLAND
OFF THE ATLC AT 4-5 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...
E/NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AND
SPREAD TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN SLOW TO
RESPOND BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 78 55 78 62 / 10 10 10 50
SSI 75 63 78 66 / 10 10 20 50
JAX 78 60 80 67 / 10 10 20 40
SGJ 78 67 78 70 / 10 10 20 40
GNV 80 59 82 66 / 10 10 20 40
OCF 81 61 84 68 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER-ST
JOHNS.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60
NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
HESS/DEESE/PRESNALL
000
FXUS62 KKEY 081436
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS
OVER LAND ARE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES. ONLY FIVE DEGREES OF
WARMING IS EXPECTED AT MOST TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
HURRICANE IDA WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. THE SERVICE AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED OUT IN TIME TO INCLUDE THE THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT PERIODS. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR MASS THAT IS OVER THE LOWER
KEYS AND THE AIR MASS THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z KMFL SOUNDING DEPICTS A PWAT VALUE OF
ONLY 1.11 INCHES. ONE WOULD ASSUME THAT THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS
SAGGING OVER THE UPPER KEYS AT THE LEAST. AS A RESULT...THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO SPLIT
ZONES AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS...
WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. A GALE WARNING
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
OTHER KEYS WATERS TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WATERS
WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BE THAT AS IT MAY...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON ALL KEYS WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
KEYS WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM FL035 TO FL100 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR FAST MOVING
SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE INCREASING LATER TODAY.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM 070-090 DEGREES WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS FROM JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE UP TO 10K FEET WILL ALSO BE FROM THE EAST AT SPEEDS OF
30 TO 40 KNOTS. PILOTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ON ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE. THERE IS AN ACTIVE AIRMET
IN EFFECT FOR TURBULENCE ACROSS THE KEYS FLIGHT AREA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1951...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 61 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 8TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 58 YEARS LATER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLZ076-077-078.
GM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...GMZ054-074-075.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...GMZ031-032-033-052-053-072-073.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.............MP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KJAX 081436 AAA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
935 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...BREEZY DAY WITH SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...
.UPDATE...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 20 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PERIODS OF
STRATO-CU CLOUDS ONSHORE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST AND MOSTLY SUNNY FURTHER INLAND. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASE EXPECTED TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SPRINKLES BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10%. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW
WILL MIX DOWN BREEZY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES AND LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE AND OVER THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S INLAND AND REMAIN IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SCT/BKN STRATO-CU MOVING INLAND
OFF THE ATLC AT 4-5 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...
E/NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AND
SPREAD TO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN SLOW TO
RESPOND BUT SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 78 55 78 62 / 10 10 10 50
SSI 75 63 78 66 / 10 10 20 50
JAX 78 60 80 67 / 10 10 20 40
SGJ 78 67 78 70 / 10 10 20 40
GNV 80 59 82 66 / 10 10 20 40
OCF 81 61 84 68 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER-ST
JOHNS.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60
NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
HESS/DEESE/PRESNALL
000
FXUS62 KKEY 081436
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS
OVER LAND ARE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. C-MAN
WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES. ONLY FIVE DEGREES OF
WARMING IS EXPECTED AT MOST TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
HURRICANE IDA WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. THE SERVICE AREA
WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED OUT IN TIME TO INCLUDE THE THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT PERIODS. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THERE IS
A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AIR MASS THAT IS OVER THE LOWER
KEYS AND THE AIR MASS THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 12Z KMFL SOUNDING DEPICTS A PWAT VALUE OF
ONLY 1.11 INCHES. ONE WOULD ASSUME THAT THIS DRIER AIR MASS IS
SAGGING OVER THE UPPER KEYS AT THE LEAST. AS A RESULT...THE ZONE
FORECASTS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO SPLIT
ZONES AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS
NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS...
WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. A GALE WARNING
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
OTHER KEYS WATERS TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WATERS
WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BE THAT AS IT MAY...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON ALL KEYS WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL
KEYS WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM FL035 TO FL100 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR FAST MOVING
SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE INCREASING LATER TODAY.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM 070-090 DEGREES WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS...AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS FROM JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE UP TO 10K FEET WILL ALSO BE FROM THE EAST AT SPEEDS OF
30 TO 40 KNOTS. PILOTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ON ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE. THERE IS AN ACTIVE AIRMET
IN EFFECT FOR TURBULENCE ACROSS THE KEYS FLIGHT AREA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1951...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 61 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 8TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 58 YEARS LATER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLZ076-077-078.
GM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF THE WEST END OF THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...GMZ054-074-075.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...GMZ031-032-033-052-053-072-073.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.............MP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 081436
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND NORTHWARD MOVING HURRICANE IDA
CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST...INDUCING EASTERLY
WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS. FARTHER NORTH OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH. ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT MARINE
STRATOCU ONSHORE WHICH WILL MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW OF THESE CLOUD BANDS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
SPRINKLES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED SO RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH NEAR 80 TO LOW
80S THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KTS
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE IDA TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN
WATERS SHOULD SEE MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN EAST WINDS...20 TO
25 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
THE TREASURE COAST. EXPECT VERY CHOPPY SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FEET
OFFSHORE TODAY AND 9 FEET TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND WILL INCLUDE ALL THE WATERS
TONIGHT.
ROUGH SURF AND A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE TODAY.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INDIAN
RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/VOLKMER
000
FXUS62 KTBW 081330
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HURRICANE IDA IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS IT HEADS NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND IDA TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE GUSTY
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY...WITH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ON MONDAY.
SEAS OF OVER 10 FEET ARE LIKELY ON THE OUTER WATERS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE FROM MID MORNING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN
THE 16 TO 26 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE SOME DURING THE EVENING BUT SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
HURRICANE IDA TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM THIS
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 11 AM TODAY UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT
FOR THE TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM
000
FXUS62 KMFL 081315
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
CURRENTLY KAMX DOPPLER DETECTS A FEW STRAY SHRA MOVING ACRS THE SW N
ATLC AND FLA STRAITS WITH A FEW OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONTO THE EXTREME
SE COAST. ALSO...SUSTAINED WINDS AT MID TO UPPER TEENS ALONG E COAST
WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20S FOR THE MOST PART. 12Z MIA RAOB
DETECTED AT 2-3 K FT WINDS 27 TO 30 KTS WHICH WILL MIX DOWNWARD
AFTER HEATING BEGINS SO PLAN ON KEEPING THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE ZFP
PACKAGE FOR THE E 1/2 OF S FLA. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS E COAST
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
..WIND ADVISORY PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES 8 AM
THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WITH
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...
DISCUSSION...HURRICANE IDA IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS MORNING. NHC FORECASTS IDA TO MOVE NNW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TURNING E-SE WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND
DISSIPATING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
IDA WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TIGHT...ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY AREA WIDE TODAY. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH
EXPECTED...AND EVEN UP TO 40 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...IT WILL BE
WINDY TOO...BUT THINKING WINDS WILL BE A FEW MPH LESS AND
ANTICIPATE THE STRONGER GUSTS TO BE LESS FREQUENT. THIS IS WHY
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...BUT DAY SHIFT
CAN ASSESS THIS WITH OBS TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED.
OTHERWISE...AS IDA TRACKS UP THE CENTRAL GULF...SOME 400 MI WEST
OF NAPLES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED WEST OF THE AREA OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA DRY WITH JUST A FEW FAST MOVING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS TURN SE BY TUESDAY...WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS GULF COAST BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES SO LOW SO HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER FOR TUE. DUE TO IDA BEING SO FAR TO THE WEST...THE
ONLY IMPACTS NOW EXPECTED LOCALLY ARE THE WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE
HEAVY RAIN/TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN GULF.
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR
THU...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SO WENT WITH DECREASING POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT NOW BOTH THE 08/00Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA FURTHER NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN BOTH MODELS BOMB A LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WOULD HAVE MAJOR MARINE IMPLICATIONS. ECWMF EVEN THEN HAS
THIS LOW MAKING A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WHILE WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY.
MARINE...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING IN EFFECT FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A GALE WARNING. DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS
WHETHER OR NOT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDE TUE BUT THEN BUILD BACK UP BY THU BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THE
STRONG LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE LATEST GFS AND
ECWMF DEPICT...THEN A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 78 83 78 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 78 84 79 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 83 77 85 77 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 87 70 88 71 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ067-FLZ068-
FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 081141
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS POSSIBLY REACHING 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE ELEVATED WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND THEN SLOWLY BEGINNING SO SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT QUICKLY MOVING SHOWERS WILL PASS ACROSS THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME. OCCASIONAL 4 TO 6 KFT CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
..WIND ADVISORY PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES 8 AM
THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WITH
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...
DISCUSSION...HURRICANE IDA IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS MORNING. NHC FORECASTS IDA TO MOVE NNW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TURNING E-SE WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND
DISSIPATING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
IDA WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TIGHT...ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY AREA WIDE TODAY. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH
EXPECTED...AND EVEN UP TO 40 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...IT WILL BE
WINDY TOO...BUT THINKING WINDS WILL BE A FEW MPH LESS AND
ANTICIPATE THE STRONGER GUSTS TO BE LESS FREQUENT. THIS IS WHY
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...BUT DAY SHIFT
CAN ASSESS THIS WITH OBS TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED.
OTHERWISE...AS IDA TRACKS UP THE CENTRAL GULF...SOME 400 MI WEST
OF NAPLES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED WEST OF THE AREA OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA DRY WITH JUST A FEW FAST MOVING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS TURN SE BY TUESDAY...WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS GULF COAST BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES SO LOW SO HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER FOR TUE. DUE TO IDA BEING SO FAR TO THE WEST...THE
ONLY IMPACTS NOW EXPECTED LOCALLY ARE THE WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE
HEAVY RAIN/TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN GULF.
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR
THU...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SO WENT WITH DECREASING POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT NOW BOTH THE 08/00Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA FURTHER NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN BOTH MODELS BOMB A LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WOULD HAVE MAJOR MARINE IMPLICATIONS. ECWMF EVEN THEN HAS
THIS LOW MAKING A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WHILE WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY.
MARINE...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING IN EFFECT FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A GALE WARNING. DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS
WHETHER OR NOT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDE TUE BUT THEN BUILD BACK UP BY THU BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THE
STRONG LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE LATEST GFS AND
ECWMF DEPICT...THEN A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 78 83 78 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 78 84 79 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 83 77 85 77 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 87 70 88 71 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ067-FLZ068-
FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 081022 CCA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
522 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...WIND ADVISORY PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES 8 AM
THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WITH
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...
.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE IDA IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS MORNING. NHC FORECASTS IDA TO MOVE NNW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TURNING E-SE WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND
DISSIPATING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
IDA WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TIGHT...ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY AREA WIDE TODAY. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH
EXPECTED...AND EVEN UP TO 40 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...IT WILL BE
WINDY TOO...BUT THINKING WINDS WILL BE A FEW MPH LESS AND
ANTICIPATE THE STRONGER GUSTS TO BE LESS FREQUENT. THIS IS WHY
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...BUT DAY SHIFT
CAN ASSESS THIS WITH OBS TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED.
OTHERWISE...AS IDA TRACKS UP THE CENTRAL GULF...SOME 400 MI WEST
OF NAPLES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED WEST OF THE AREA OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA DRY WITH JUST A FEW FAST MOVING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS TURN SE BY TUESDAY...WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS GULF COAST BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES SO LOW SO HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER FOR TUE. DUE TO IDA BEING SO FAR TO THE WEST...THE
ONLY IMPACTS NOW EXPECTED LOCALLY ARE THE WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE
HEAVY RAIN/TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN GULF.
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR
THU...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SO WENT WITH DECREASING POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT NOW BOTH THE 08/00Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA FURTHER NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN BOTH MODELS BOMB A LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WOULD HAVE MAJOR MARINE IMPLICATIONS. ECWMF EVEN THEN HAS
THIS LOW MAKING A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WHILE WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY.
&&
.MARINE...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING IN EFFECT FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A GALE WARNING. DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS
WHETHER OR NOT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDE TUE BUT THEN BUILD BACK UP BY THU BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THE
STRONG LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE LATEST GFS AND
ECWMF DEPICT...THEN A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 78 83 78 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 78 84 79 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 83 77 85 77 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 87 70 88 71 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ168-FLZ172-
FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 081002
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
502 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...WIND ADVISORY PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES 8 AM
THIS MORNING UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS WITH
STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...
.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE IDA IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS MORNING. NHC FORECASTS IDA TO MOVE NNW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TURNING E-SE WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND
DISSIPATING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
IDA WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TIGHT...ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY AREA WIDE TODAY. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL
BE ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH
EXPECTED...AND EVEN UP TO 40 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY EVEN AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST. ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...IT WILL BE
WINDY TOO...BUT THINKING WINDS WILL BE A FEW MPH LESS AND
ANTICIPATE THE STRONGER GUSTS TO BE LESS FREQUENT. THIS IS WHY
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS...BUT DAY SHIFT
CAN ASSESS THIS WITH OBS TO SEE IF THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED.
OTHERWISE...AS IDA TRACKS UP THE CENTRAL GULF...SOME 400 MI WEST
OF NAPLES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE/CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED WEST OF THE AREA OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA DRY WITH JUST A FEW FAST MOVING
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS TURN SE BY TUESDAY...WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS GULF COAST BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. INSTABILITY CONTINUES SO LOW SO HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER FOR TUE. DUE TO IDA BEING SO FAR TO THE WEST...THE
ONLY IMPACTS NOW EXPECTED LOCALLY ARE THE WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE
HEAVY RAIN/TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN OUT OVER THE OPEN GULF.
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME WED OR
THU...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SO WENT WITH DECREASING POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT NOW BOTH THE 08/00Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE
WHAT`S LEFT OF IDA FURTHER NORTHEAST AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...THEN BOTH MODELS BOMB A LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WOULD HAVE MAJOR MARINE IMPLICATIONS. ECWMF EVEN THEN HAS
THIS LOW MAKING A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WHILE WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY.
&&
.MARINE...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING IN EFFECT FOR
ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT...SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A GALE WARNING. DAY SHIFT CAN ASSESS
WHETHER OR NOT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDE TUE BUT THEN BUILD BACK UP BY THU BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD THE
STRONG LOW DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE LATEST GFS AND
ECWMF DEPICT...THEN A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVEN IS POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 78 83 78 / 10 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 78 84 79 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 83 77 85 77 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 87 70 88 71 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ168-FLZ172-
FLZ173-FLZ174.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KJAX 080944
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO IDA LIFTING NORTH INTO THE GULF. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. LAMP GUIDANCE DEPICTS SUSTAINED WINDS 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 30 MPH AT SGJ. THIS IS IN LINE WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MIXING HEIGHTS AT AROUND 875 MB. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...ONLY ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER...SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
NORMS. SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AS THEY MOVE
IN OFF THE ATLANTIC BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY.
INCREASING CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE ALONG THE
COAST BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY PRECIP WORDING IN THE
FORECAST.
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ON MONDAY AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS A GREATER PORTION OF THE
AREA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIFT A LITTLE HIGHER AND TEMPS
WILL CORRESPONDINGLY CLIMB BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NE FL AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF IDA.
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF IDA...POPS WILL REMAIN APPROXIMATELY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST LIFT COMING TOGETHER OVER
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
BUT AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE TRACK OF
IDA. THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SHOWS IDA
TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF
COAST AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE BY MID-WEEK. THE MAIN
THREAT FOR OUR AREA WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL BUT
EVEN THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS COOLER
AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH CALM WINDS HAS ALLOWED
IFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT CRG. A MORE NLY FLOW AT VQQ WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CONDS. STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION.
&&
.MARINE...BUOYS ARE REPORTING NE TO E WINDS 10-15KT AND SEAS FROM
2 TO 5 FT. SWELLS ARE 2-3 FT WITH A PERIOD ARND 9 SEC. ONSET OF
SCA CONDS IS ANTICIPATED BY THIS AFTN WHICH IS A FEW HOURS LATER
THAN PREV THINKING. LATEST GFS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM EARLIER
RUN FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND WILL FOLLOW THIS SOLN AS THE MUCH
HIGHER WINDS IN THE ECMWF BY MID WEEK SEEMS OVERDONE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 78 55 78 62 / 10 10 10 50
SSI 75 63 78 66 / 10 10 20 50
JAX 78 60 80 67 / 10 10 20 40
SGJ 78 67 78 70 / 10 10 20 40
GNV 80 59 82 66 / 10 10 20 40
OCF 81 61 84 68 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER-ST JOHNS.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60
NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHULER/TRABERT
000
FXUS62 KMLB 080943
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
443 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY TODAY AND MONDAY...
...ROUGH SURF AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
WEEK...
TODAY/TONIGHT...EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL FL AS TC IDA LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HAVE RAISED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOCUSING ON CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE
WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER...20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE
TREASURE COAST OF MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SOME
HIGHER GUSTS...UP TO 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH A FEW FAST MOVING LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL LIKELY PUSH ONSHORE...AND POSSIBLY WELL
INLAND...ATMOS REMAINS QUITE DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
TRACE. HAVE KEPT A SILENT 10% POP. TC IDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING ONLY PERIPHERAL
EFFECTS ON EC FL. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW
DISCRETE ATLANTIC SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATING RAINFALL TONIGHT IN A
FEW SPOTS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE.
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL
EFFECTS FROM IDA OR ITS REMAINS FOR MONDAY THRU THURSDAY. RIGHT
NOW SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF IDA IS NOT EXTENSIVE
AND WITH EXPECTED MOTION OF IDA OVER NEXT 48 HOURS THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULLED IN EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO WEST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. BUT CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND
MOVING ONSHORE AS IDA PULLS NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. THE WORKING
SCENARIO FOR THIS PACKAGE IS ON MONDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND IDA IN THE GULF AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY AS WELL. LOW RAIN CHANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE AND INLAND DURING DAY MONDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE ON MONDAY AS IDA MOVES INTO
NORTHERN GULF. SHEAR INCREASES OVER IDA ON MONDAY AND THE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING CONVECTION BUT THE
GREATEST HELICITY IS CURRENTLY PROGGED WELL WEST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ARE FROM TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TRW EXPECTED
AS THE REMAINS OF IDA RACE NORTHEAST AND EVOLVE INTO EXTRA
TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SPREADS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY EARLY THURSDAY AND A STRONG ET LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LARGE SWELL THAT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND HURRICANE IDA TO THE SOUTH SHOULD PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS
TODAY ESP MCO SOUTH. EXPECT RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS INTRR
AIRPORTS AROUND MID MORNING AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH SFC
HEATING. EAST WINDS 17 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY MCO
SOUTH. SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT FPR/SUA.
&&
.MARINE...
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE IDA TO THE SOUTH.
SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD SEE MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN EAST
WINDS...20 TO 25 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST. EXPECT VERY CHOPPY SEAS TO
BUILD TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE TODAY AND 9 FEET TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WATERS TODAY AND WILL INCLUDE
ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT.
ROUGH SURF AND A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE SURF ZONE TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE LIKELY BE
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY. LARGE SWELL WILL DEVELOP AS EXTRA TROPICAL
LOW STRENGTHENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS
UP UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 80 68 82 72 / 10 10 20 40
MCO 82 66 84 70 / 10 10 20 40
MLB 81 73 84 76 / 10 10 20 30
VRB 82 74 84 77 / 10 10 20 30
LEE 81 67 84 70 / 10 10 20 40
SFB 83 66 85 71 / 10 10 20 40
ORL 82 66 85 71 / 10 10 20 40
FPR 82 75 84 76 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....HAGEMEYER
000
FXUS62 KKEY 080911
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE KEYS AREA DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES...AND HURRICANE IDA IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A COUPLE OF CMAN STATIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO
GUST NEAR 40 KNOTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS. A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF KEY WATERS...AND A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO PERSISTENT BAND OF FAST
MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE OUTER STRAITS. ONLY A FEW ROUNDS OF SHORT
LIVED SHOWERS HAVE SO FAR BEEN ABLE TO DIRECTLY AFFECT THE KEYS.
THIS IS DUE TO A SHARP NORTH SOUTH GRADIENT IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LOCATED ALONG AN EAST WEST ZONE
OVER CUBA AND THE STRAITS. THESE STRONG WINDS HAS ALSO KEPT
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A NARROW RANGE...WITH YESTERDAY`S HIGHS NEAR TO
JUST ABOVE 80...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S.
FORECAST - THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE HURRICANE IDA
MOVES NORTH NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IDA WILL
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE KEYS...HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AS IDA IS DRAWN POLEWARD...THE ZONE OF HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE KEYS...WHILE THE FLOW BECOMES MORE CONVERGENT.
STILL ANTICIPATE A STRETCH OF RAINY WEATHER IN THE KEYS EARLY THIS
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATED BY THE HIGH
WINDS...CLOUD COVER...AND BOUTS OF RAIN. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BY TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF IDA BE NEARING THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WHILE HAVING BEEN ABSORBED INTO A MID LATITUDE SYSTEM.
MEANWHILE...A SPOKE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE KEYS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SLACKENING FLOW AND INCREASING RIDGING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND POPS
BY MID WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS
AREA AROUND THURSDAY. HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS AND A RESURGENCE IN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE KEYS. AMPLE DRY AIR AND
GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY AS IDA IS NEAR ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE KEYS...AND SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW...AND BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY. A GALE
WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE WEST END
OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...WHILE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS WATERS. ALL
CAUTIONS...ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED TUESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
KEYS...AND CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED
AGAIN...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM FL035 TO FL100 WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY. THE CHANCES
FOR FAST MOVING SHOWERS AROUND THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE INCREASING
LATER ON TODAY...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL REMAIN STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM 070-090 DEGREES WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...AND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
UP TO 10K FEET WILL ALSO BE FROM THE EAST AT SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40
KNOTS. PILOTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL
TURBULENCE ON ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE. THERE IS AN ACTIVE AIRMET IN EFFECT
FOR TURBULENCE ACROSS THE KEYS FLIGHT AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 83 77 84 78 / 60 60 60 40
MARATHON 84 77 85 78 / 60 60 60 40
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FOR FLZ076-077-078.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031-032-033-052-053-072-073
GALE WARNING FOR GMZ054-074-075.
&&
$$
11/CJ
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 080840
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...DESPITE A PORTION OF THE SFC RIDGE LINGERING SW INTO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA....TONIGHT IS SIGNIFICANTLY MILDER THAN
THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-WEST
LINE THROUGH ALBANY. THIS IS DUE TO MODERATION OF THE RIDGE...SFC
DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE ON THE RISE...ALONG WITH THICKER CIRRUS MOVING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SCA CONDITIONS
ARE WELL ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE...AND BELIEVE SCEC CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY UNDERWAY NEARSHORE...WITH SCA LEVELS TO FOLLOW BY LATE
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...TODAY WILL BE THE CALM
BEFORE THE STORM SO TO SPEAK...AS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD PRODUCE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE LOWER 80S TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL EYES WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH WHERE NOW HURRICANE IDA WILL
BE CROSSING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING...TO A POSITION NORTH
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING BEFORE REACHING A POSITION AS
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL FCST TO ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SST`S AS IT CONVERTS TO A WEAKER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO
THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING...THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN IT COULD
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH BEFORE TO CREATE NUMEROUS TROPICAL LIKE
PROBLEMS FOR COASTAL PARTS OF OUR CWA AND CLEARLY THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH STRONG WINDS UP TO AND EXCEEDING GALE FORCE...VERY
HIGH WAVES...AND BATTERING SURF WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME BEACH
EROSION...AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FOR OUR MORE SHALLOW
COASTLINE FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AND THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HURRICANE IDA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY).
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF IDA
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OR NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
NHC`S OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES THE REMNANT SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA.
THE EURO AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ACCORDINGLY SHOW A FASTER MERGER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A POSITION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST MUCH CLOSER TO THE NHC FORECAST WHICH
FAVORS HIGHER WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
ACROSS THE LAND MASS. THIS ALSO REQUIRES A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT NEAR AS DRAMATIC AS
INDICATED IN THE GFS.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE CENTER LOOKS TO MOVE MORE INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC THAN THE SOUTHEAST...THUS THE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE A COUPLE
OF BREEZY DAYS UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS FINALLY MOVES OVER
THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS BOTH
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. ADVANCING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTH WILL YIELD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL
LIKELY BE ADDING SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR CIGS POSSIBLY AROUND 12Z
MONDAY IN THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE FOR PFN AND TLH.
&&
.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING SCA
OFFSHORE...AND SCEC NEARSHORE THIS MORNING...THEN BLANKET THE WATERS
WITH AN SCA NO LATER THAN NOON TODAY. THEREAFTER...THE FCST BECOMES
A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS WE EXPECT TO HAVE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN LEGS ON MONDAY...WITH SCA LEVELS
FURTHER TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO BREAK OUT THE CWF INTO
3 GROUPS TEMPORARILY THIS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THE
HAZARDS...TIMING...AND WIND AND WAVE HEIGHT CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 78 58 76 67 76 / 00 05 40 70 70
PANAMA CITY 78 63 77 68 76 / 00 10 60 80 60
DOTHAN 74 55 75 65 73 / 00 05 50 80 60
ALBANY 76 53 75 65 73 / 00 05 30 70 70
VALDOSTA 79 56 77 67 75 / 00 05 30 70 70
CROSS CITY 82 59 82 67 79 / 00 05 30 70 70
APALACHICOLA 77 65 76 70 77 / 00 10 60 80 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM
KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT
20 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN
FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN
FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
FIRE WX/AVIATION/LONG TERM...GODSEY
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
000
FXUS62 KTBW 080822
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO HURRICANE IDA AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE TAMPA
BAY FORECAST AREA. THE WEATHER FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET
BUT INCREASINGLY BREEZY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA...WHILE IDA CRANKS NORTH THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. BUFKIT PROFILES FOR THE AFTERNOON INDICATE A WELL MIXED
LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE TO AROUND 5KFT. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER ARE NEARLY 30 KTS AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWS MEAN WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER OF 26 KNOTS. THUS WILL INCREASE SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS TO 20 KTS OR GREATER OVER THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS OF
26 KNOTS EXPECTED. THESE VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM 16 TO 23Z. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY THEY WILL BE
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS STRONG H5 RIDGING BUILDS OVER FLORIDA.
WITH A HEIGHT OF 586DM AND RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE AIR...THE MODEL
FORECASTS OF MID TO UPPER 80S LOOK GOOD...ALTHOUGH THE MAV MOS IS
PROBABLY STILL TOO WARM AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MOST RECENT NHC TRACK WILL KEEP IDA WELL OFFSHORE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF. THUS THE IMPACTS TO OUR LAND AREAS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE FAR DISTANCE FROM THE STORM. POPS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY...BUT SKY COVER WAS RAISED TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPANSIVE HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY DUE TO THE
STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
THE PRECIP HANGING TO THE WEST...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
REMAINING UNSEASONABLY STRONG. RECORD HIGH FOR TPA ON MONDAY IS
88. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR TEMPERATURES JUST SHY OF THIS. THINK
IT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT TO REACH RECORDS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
BY TUESDAY THE STORM WILL BE UNDERGOING ET TRANSITION AND WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST IN
THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH IDA
GAINING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID
LEVEL EASTWARD PROPAGATING TROUGH. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW IDA DECOUPLING OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AS ITS MOISTURE
DRIFTS TOWARDS THE NE AND MERGES WITH A SFC FRONT. LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT THIS DECOUPLING BUT SHOWS THE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION AS A SFC FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. EARLIER 12Z ECMWF WAS NOT
NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE PENINSULA AS NOW
THE 0Z SHOWS (WHICH IS BEGINNING TO AGREE WITH 0Z GFS).
REGARDLESS...BASED FORECAST OFF THE 12Z ECMWF STARTING THURSDAY
THINKING THAT THE SFC FRONT WILL NOT PUSH AS FAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THEREFORE...LEFT 20-30% POPS LINGERING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST OVER 25 KT ESPECIALLY FROM SRQ
SOUTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND HURRICANE IDA
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STRONG ABOVE 20 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FROM THE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE AS
HURRICANE IDA LIFTS FARTHER NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
MODEL FORECASTS OF WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ARE 25 TO 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED.THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN NHC TROPICAL STORM FORCE PROBABILITIES. THIS WILL REMAIN
BELOW GALE CRITERIA FOR NOW BUT THE FINAL INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
IDA AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE THE DECIDING
FACTOR ON GALES. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FINALLY DIMINISH BELOW
THRESHOLD CRITERIA BY MID WEEK. WAVE HEIGHTS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN
THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE WELL OFFSHORE. VALUES OF THIS LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE TO
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL NOT REACH THE
COAST...AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ELIMINATE HIGH SURF AND COASTAL
FLOODING HAZARDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOW
AGAIN TODAY IN THE INTERIOR PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE QUITE HIGH...SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTING
TO NEAR 30 MPH. DISPERSION INDICES WILL REMAIN HIGH AS WELL GIVEN
THE STRONG WINDS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY...AS OUR WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST WHICH
WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGHER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 68 87 71 / 10 10 20 30
FMY 86 70 87 71 / 10 10 20 30
GIF 83 68 86 67 / 10 10 10 30
SRQ 85 70 87 71 / 10 10 20 30
BKV 84 64 86 66 / 10 10 10 30
SPG 82 70 87 72 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-
LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60
NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON
000
FXUS62 KMFL 080536
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION. FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WINDS GENERALLY WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
27 KNOTS...BY MID SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 KTS. FOR KAPF...BY MID SUNDAY MORNING WINDS NEAR 17 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 27 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. OCCASIONAL CEILINGS IN THE 4 TO 6 KFT RANGE
POSSIBLE FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH A QUICKLY PASSING LIGHT
SHOWER POSSIBLE AS WELL.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TARGET AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED... ADDED ISOLD SHRA TO PALM BEACH
COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHRA ARE
ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE AND MORE CAN BE EXPECTED LATER. ALSO MADE A
MINOR TWEAK TO THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. /TINGLER
MARINE...AS IDA MOVES TOWARD THE GULF TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. CURRENTLY THE SCA WILL COVER THE
ONGOING CONDITIONS, HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY BEGIN
TO OCCUR TOWARD MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRIMARILY THE
GULF ZONES, AND INDEED AT SAND KEY LIGHT IN KEY WEST`S CWA THESE
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. LATER SUNDAY THESE CONDITIONS MAY
CREEP FARTHER NORTH AND COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WITH THE GULF ZONES RECEIVING THE
HIGHEST GUSTS... THEREFORE A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATER ON
SUNDAY, BUT ATTM WILL NOT PULL THE TRIGGER AND WILL LET THE MID
SHIFT LOOK IT OVER. /TINGLER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE MADE
THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS.
STRONG/GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT FLL/PBI...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST OF 15G25 KNOTS
AT THESE TERMINALS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CHANCES FOR SHRA...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
VCSH. EASTERLY WINDS 20G30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY...AND 17G27 KNOTS AT APF.
70/DD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.CONTINUED WINDY WITH ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY...
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIB NW ACROSS THE E
GULF OF MEX AND INTO THE SE U.S. GULF COAST STATES...GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC BY MON
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ALIGNED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH TROPICAL
STORM IDA IN THE W CARIB AND FORECASTED BY NHC TO CONTINUE TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MON...THE CURRENT HIGH PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...DUE TO THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING IDA TO THE SW...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
INCREASING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS S FLA.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE WIND AFFECTING THE
E COAST. WITH THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING...SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE STRONGEST WINDS SUN INTO MON. THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THOUGH UPON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF IDA. A WIND ADVISORY AFFECTING
PRIMARILY THE E MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON BUT AWAIT W CARIB/GULF
DEVELOPMENTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST RAOBS INDICATE DRY/STABLE MID
LEVELS WHICH GRADUALLY MOISTENS ALLOWING ESSENTIALLY ONLY PASSING
SHOWERS ON THE BREEZE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. SO...LOW POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SEEP NORTHWARD OVER S FLA MON AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SE. THIS WILL
INCREASE POPS OVER THE SW PORTION OF S FLA MON WITH AN INCREASE
POPS ALONG THE COASTS MON NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE /CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA REMAINS W OF S FLA
OVER THE GULF.
EXTENDED PERIOD...TUE THROUGH SATURDAY
A LOT DEPENDS UPON THE EXACT PATH OF IDA. SOME MODELS SEND THE
SYSTEM INTO THE FLA PANHANDLE AND SOME INTO THE E GULF. WILL
FOLLOW THE CURRENT NHC TRACK WHICH TAKES IDA TOWARD THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE E GULF BY WED IN A WEAKENED
CONDITION WHICH FINALLY HAS THE SYSTEM BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL AND
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SE U.S. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH S FLA WED. THUS...A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUE THRU EARLY WED WITH DECREASING CHANCES END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG
HIGH PRES OVER THE E U.S. MAY INCREASE WINDS AGAIN THU AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ZONES IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE MORNING AS
WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20+ KTS WITH INCREASES SUN AND MON POSSIBLE.
SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AS WELL. VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS E COAST BEACHES. THOUGH WINDS RELAX AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT THU
INDICATES A STRONG PRES GRADIENT REDEVELOPING WHICH LEADS TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN ON THU FROM N TO S.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 78 85 77 / 10 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 84 79 84 78 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI 83 78 85 77 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES 87 70 89 71 / 20 30 40 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KMLB 080314
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING/SURF CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...
...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
CURRENT...BRISK ENE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ECFL WITH TIGHT PGRAD
OF 6-7MB BTWN MIA-JAX. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO AROUND 5-10MPH
INLAND...BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO 15MPH (G20+)ALONG THE BEACHES. FEW SHRA
HAD MOVED ONSHORE THE TREASURE COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING...BUT
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED (OR WEAKENED TO LGT SPRINKLES FM LAKE OKEE TO
SUA)...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SPRINKLES UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC.
OVERNIGHT...LTL CHG TO PREV FCST REASONING. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY
FALL BACK TWD LWR 60S INLAND..BUT HOVER IN THE U60S-L70S ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ONLY CHG I CAN SEE
MAKING IS TO SHOW A RANGE OF TEMPS FROM BREVARD SWD TO SHOW LWR MINS
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COS WEST OF I-95. DON`T THINK
AREAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF SPRINKLES WILL BE ENOUGH TO MERIT MENTION.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. ENE/NE WINDS GETTING BACK UP TO AROUND 15G25KT
MOST SITES AGAIN SUN LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN. SOME AREAS OF BKN
VFR CIGS FL040-050 PSBL AGAIN...BUT LKLY NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
MERIT A TEMPO GROUP AT ANY SITE.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY OBS INDICATE WINDS AROUND 18-20KT WITH SEAS
4-6FT NR SHORE AND 7-8FT OFFSHORE...ABOUT A FOOT BELOW CURRENT FCST.
WITH LCL PGRAD FCST TO TIGHTEN A BIT OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD
PRETTY MUCH FALL WITHIN RANGE OF FCST VALUES. ONGOING AND FCST CONDS
WELL-HANDLED BY CURRENT SUITE OF ADVISORIES. NO CHGS NEEDED.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....MOSES
000
FXUS62 KTAE 080213
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
910 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...TROPICAL STORM IDA SHOULD BRING RAIN...INCREASING WINDS AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO LOCAL AREA DURING THE EARLY WORK
WEEK...
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 9 PM EST...SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT WITH MAINLY
CIRRUS CLOUDS. TEMPS RANGED FROM MID 50S NORTH TO LOW-MID 50S COAST.
24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISONS INDICATED THAT LOCAL AIRMASS
RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES WARMER AND WETTER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM TO LIGHT NLY.
AT UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE SCALE CONUS PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY A TROUGH OVER DESERT
SW/OLD MEX WITH A CUTOFF LOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN TX.
OTHERWISE...BROAD AND GENERALLY DEAMPLIFIED RIDGING ACROSS U.S. A
BROAD BELT OF FAST WSW FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE FROM THE WRN
CONUS INTO ERN CANADA...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE IMPULSES
PROGRESSING QUICKLY ENEWD. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SRN
U.S. WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER HEIGHTS. LOCALLY...THIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THRU REST OF WEEKEND
THROUGH SHORT TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS
AND SW TROUGH TO BOTH SHIFT EWD ALLOWING IDA TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NWD TRACK. BY SUN MORNING...RIDGE AXIS FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SWD INTO THE GULF/WRN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM UP AS
THE E FLOW TRANSITIONS TO SE DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SW AND W SUN TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN MON AND TUE WITH THE BEST LIFT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
MON INTO EARLY TUE WELL AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WHICH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NWD AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
AT LOWER LEVELS...
ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE NC COAST DOWN ATLC
SEABOARD AND THEN SWWD THRU LA AND INTO EAST TX. THIS REFLECTED IN
00Z REGIONAL RAOBS...I.E. TAE WITH 0.41 INCH PWAT. COLD FRONT FROM
ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS SRN NE AND INTO COLORADO. UNDER INFLUENCE OF
UPPER TROUGH OVER NEXT 3 DAYS.. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD
AND INTO CARIB AND IMPACT TROPICAL STORMS IDA (SEE BELOW.)
TROPICAL STORM IDA...
DURING SAT EVE...IDA WAS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
IDA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...AS IT ENTERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A LESS CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT AS WATER TEMPS COOL AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE
HOSTILE. IDA IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...AS IT ENTRAINS ABUNDANT MID LAYER DRY AIR FROM THE
WEST AND BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG A FRONT. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN THE APPROACHING H5 TROUGH (PROVIDING DYNAMICS)
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT (PROVIDING LIFT) WILL PICK UP THE MOISTURE
FROM IDA BEGINNING MONDAY AND STREAMING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS CWA
ESPECIALLY MON AFTN INTO TUES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW REMNANT
OF IDA NEARING THE FL PANHANDLE COASTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SO...LOCAL AREA WILL STILL RECEIVE AMPLE RAIN AND WINDS UP TO GALE
FORCE ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. WE EXPECT AT
LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN (STORM TOTAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...MAINLY WEST OF THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER BUT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE
DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THIS. ORIGINATING AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO CAPES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED LIFTED
WITH A SHALLOW STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED NORTH OF A DEVELOPING
FRONT.SO SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY OVER LAND AND TSTMS CHANCES
LOW...AND WILL BE FORECAST ONLY FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(REST OF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY)
A MORE ESE WIND HAS ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO CLIMB ACROSS THE AREA SO
EXPECTING LOWS TO BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS REFLECTED IN ABOVE
AIRMASS CONTRASTS. EXPECT LOWS FROM MIN 40S NORTH TO MID 50S COAST.
SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY SE
ALA/SRN GA AND SE BIG BEND AS REFLECTED IN SREF PROGS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
A TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ACROSS WELL OFFSHORE BUOYS ALREADY AT 6-8 FEET AND WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. SO INHERITED SCA FOR OFFSHORE PANHANDLE WATERS
JUSTIFIED. A GALE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY MID SHIFT...AS
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (OR EVEN A WATCH/WARNING) AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED. THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL STORM
SURGE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A SURGE UP TO 2 FEET AT APALACHICOLA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BUT OUR LOCAL SLOSH MODEL FOR A NORTHWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL STORM IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND KEEPING OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GIBBS
REST OF DISCUSSION...BLOCK
000
FXUS62 KKEY 080202
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
902 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
WINDS AT ISLAND STATIONS HAVE BEEN STEADY EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED SINCE SUNSET...WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CWOP STATION LOCATED ON LONG KEY HAS
REPORTED WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 32 KNOTS (37MPH). THE LONG KEY SITE IS
LOCATED CLOSE TO THE WESTERN END OF THE CHANNEL FIVE BRIDGE...AND IS
REPRESENTATIVE OF CONDITIONS ON THE BRIDGE. FROM THIS PERSPECTIVE...THE
WINDS MEASURED AT LONG KEY ALONE JUSTIFY THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS...GIVEN THE VULNERABILITY OF VEHICULAR TRAFFIC ON ONE OF
THE KEYS HIGHEST SPANS. THE CMAN STATIONS AT SAND KEY AND PULASKI
SHOAL LIGHT HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AT NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ABOVE
GALE FORCE. SAND KEY HAS MEASURED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS FOR THE
LAST FOUR HOURS. THIS CERTAINLY VERIFIES THE GALE WARNING IN ZONE
75...AND MAY INDICATE THAT THE GALE WARNING BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
MARINE ZONES TO THE EAST. KEY WEST RADAR IS PICKING UP ABUNDANT
SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE CUBAN COAST...BUT ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE ISLANDS.
.SHORT TERM...
MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINS THE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE EVENING UPDATE WILL WILL BE TO ADJUST
THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO SHOW GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS IN MARINE
ZONE 75. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ISLANDS...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT 75...AND GALE WARNING FOR ZONE 75 AS
IS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS WEST OF KEY
WEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS OF BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS...ARE EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. IN THE GULF WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST...SUSTAINED EAST
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 40
KNOTS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY. MARINERS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNLESS ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT THAT THEIR CRAFT
CAN SURVIVE IN THESE CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...OCCASIONAL VFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY WITH CLOUD BASES
AOA 3000-4000 FEET AT BOTH TERMINALS. VERY LIGHT FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 20 KNOTS FROM 060-080 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...PILOTS SHOULD
ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ON ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE.
THERE IS CURRENTLY AN ACTIVE AIRMET/SIGMET IN EFFECT FOR TURBULENCE
ACROSS THE KEYS FLIGHT AREA.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY FOR FLZ076-FLZ077-FLZ078.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-
GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ075.
GALE WARNING FOR GMZ075.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........DEVANAS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......ROSS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KJAX 080106
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
806 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...CONTINUED DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...
.UPDATE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS BACK INTO THE SERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC TO 700 MB FLOW WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MIX OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS COMING ACRS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE SCT STRATO-CU WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES INLAND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MIN TEMPS A BIT MORE MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER 40S TO 50S INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST. ON
SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN INCREASE IN EAST WINDS EXPECTED
WITH POSSIBLE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. A FEW SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH UPWARDS
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SATELLITE
SHOWS SCATTERED STRATOCU CLOUDS OVER NE FL AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. NO FOG EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DUE TO MODERATE NE WINDS
RIGHT ABOVE SURFACE.
&&
.MARINE...E TO NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE FL WATERS. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 45 79 56 78 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 60 76 63 76 / 0 0 10 20
JAX 54 78 60 78 / 0 0 10 20
SGJ 62 78 69 80 / 0 10 10 20
GNV 53 80 60 82 / 0 10 10 20
OCF 55 81 62 84 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
HESS/ZIBURA/KEEGAN
000
FXUS62 KTBW 080045
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
745 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT PERSISTS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS. ALTHOUGH TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA...EVENING INVERSION HAS SET UP WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL LIKELY LOWER
SCEC FOR TAMPA BAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE AND REINTRODUCE IT
TOMORROW AFTER INVERSION BREAKS AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP. CONTINUE TO MONITOR T.S. IDA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
AS WAS DISCUSSED EARLIER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH TRACK AND
HOW FAR EAST FROM THE CENTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND.
ALSO...WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...MAY NEED A GALE WATCH
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AT SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. CURRENT ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GUSTY EAST WINDS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TR
000
FXUS62 KMFL 080035
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TARGET AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED... ADDED ISOLD SHRA TO PALM BEACH
COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHRA ARE
ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE AND MORE CAN BE EXPECTED LATER. ALSO MADE A
MINOR TWEAK TO THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. /TINGLER
&&
.MARINE...AS IDA MOVES TOWARD THE GULF TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. CURRENTLY THE SCA WILL COVER THE
ONGOING CONDITIONS, HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY BEGIN
TO OCCUR TOWARD MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRIMARILY THE
GULF ZONES, AND INDEED AT SAND KEY LIGHT IN KEY WEST`S CWA THESE
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. LATER SUNDAY THESE CONDITIONS MAY
CREEP FARTHER NORTH AND COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WITH THE GULF ZONES RECEIVING THE
HIGHEST GUSTS... THEREFORE A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATER ON
SUNDAY, BUT ATTM WILL NOT PULL THE TRIGGER AND WILL LET THE MID
SHIFT LOOK IT OVER. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE MADE
THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS.
STRONG/GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT FLL/PBI...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST OF 15G25 KNOTS
AT THESE TERMINALS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CHANCES FOR SHRA...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
VCSH. EASTERLY WINDS 20G30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY...AND 17G27 KNOTS AT APF.
70/DD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
..CONTINUED WINDY WITH ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY...
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIB NW ACROSS THE E
GULF OF MEX AND INTO THE SE U.S. GULF COAST STATES...GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC BY MON
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ALIGNED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH TROPICAL
STORM IDA IN THE W CARIB AND FORECASTED BY NHC TO CONTINUE TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MON...THE CURRENT HIGH PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...DUE TO THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING IDA TO THE SW...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
INCREASING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS S FLA.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE WIND AFFECTING THE
E COAST. WITH THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING...SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE STRONGEST WINDS SUN INTO MON. THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THOUGH UPON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF IDA. A WIND ADVISORY AFFECTING
PRIMARILY THE E MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON BUT AWAIT W CARIB/GULF
DEVELOPMENTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST RAOBS INDICATE DRY/STABLE MID
LEVELS WHICH GRADUALLY MOISTENS ALLOWING ESSENTIALLY ONLY PASSING
SHOWERS ON THE BREEZE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. SO...LOW POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SEEP NORTHWARD OVER S FLA MON AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SE. THIS WILL
INCREASE POPS OVER THE SW PORTION OF S FLA MON WITH AN INCREASE
POPS ALONG THE COASTS MON NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE /CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA REMAINS W OF S FLA
OVER THE GULF.
EXTENDED PERIOD...TUE THROUGH SATURDAY
A LOT DEPENDS UPON THE EXACT PATH OF IDA. SOME MODELS SEND THE
SYSTEM INTO THE FLA PANHANDLE AND SOME INTO THE E GULF. WILL
FOLLOW THE CURRENT NHC TRACK WHICH TAKES IDA TOWARD THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE E GULF BY WED IN A WEAKENED
CONDITION WHICH FINALLY HAS THE SYSTEM BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL AND
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SE U.S. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH S FLA WED. THUS...A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUE THRU EARLY WED WITH DECREASING CHANCES END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG
HIGH PRES OVER THE E U.S. MAY INCREASE WINDS AGAIN THU AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ZONES IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE MORNING AS
WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20+ KTS WITH INCREASES SUN AND MON POSSIBLE.
SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AS WELL. VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS E COAST BEACHES. THOUGH WINDS RELAX AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT THU
INDICATES A STRONG PRES GRADIENT REDEVELOPING WHICH LEADS TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN ON THU FROM N TO S.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 83 78 85 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 84 79 84 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 76 83 78 85 / 20 20 30 20
NAPLES 68 87 70 89 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 080001
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
701 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE MADE
THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS.
STRONG/GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT FLL/PBI...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST OF 15G25 KNOTS
AT THESE TERMINALS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CHANCES FOR SHRA...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
VCSH. EASTERLY WINDS 20G30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY...AND 17G27 KNOTS AT APF.
70/DD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
...CONTINUED WINDY WITH ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY...
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIB NW ACROSS THE E
GULF OF MEX AND INTO THE SE U.S. GULF COAST STATES...GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC BY MON
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ALIGNED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH TROPICAL
STORM IDA IN THE W CARIB AND FORECASTED BY NHC TO CONTINUE TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MON...THE CURRENT HIGH PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...DUE TO THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING IDA TO THE SW...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
INCREASING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS S FLA.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE WIND AFFECTING THE
E COAST. WITH THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING...SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE STRONGEST WINDS SUN INTO MON. THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THOUGH UPON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF IDA. A WIND ADVISORY AFFECTING
PRIMARILY THE E MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON BUT AWAIT W CARIB/GULF
DEVELOPMENTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST RAOBS INDICATE DRY/STABLE MID
LEVELS WHICH GRADUALLY MOISTENS ALLOWING ESSENTIALLY ONLY PASSING
SHOWERS ON THE BREEZE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. SO...LOW POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SEEP NORTHWARD OVER S FLA MON AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SE. THIS WILL
INCREASE POPS OVER THE SW PORTION OF S FLA MON WITH AN INCREASE
POPS ALONG THE COASTS MON NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE /CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA REMAINS W OF S FLA
OVER THE GULF.
EXTENDED PERIOD...TUE THROUGH SATURDAY
A LOT DEPENDS UPON THE EXACT PATH OF IDA. SOME MODELS SEND THE
SYSTEM INTO THE FLA PANHANDLE AND SOME INTO THE E GULF. WILL
FOLLOW THE CURRENT NHC TRACK WHICH TAKES IDA TOWARD THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE E GULF BY WED IN A WEAKENED
CONDITION WHICH FINALLY HAS THE SYSTEM BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL AND
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SE U.S. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH S FLA WED. THUS...A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUE THRU EARLY WED WITH DECREASING CHANCES END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG
HIGH PRES OVER THE E U.S. MAY INCREASE WINDS AGAIN THU AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ZONES IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE MORNING AS
WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20+ KTS WITH INCREASES SUN AND MON POSSIBLE.
SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AS WELL. VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS E COAST BEACHES. THOUGH WINDS RELAX AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT THU
INDICATES A STRONG PRES GRADIENT REDEVELOPING WHICH LEADS TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN ON THU FROM N TO S.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 83 78 85 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 84 79 84 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 76 83 78 85 / 20 20 30 20
NAPLES 68 87 70 89 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD
000
FXUS62 KTAE 072041
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
THE 19 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO EAST TX. TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED AN
AREA OF HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A CUTOFF LOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN TX. IT WAS A MILD AND DRY DAY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...BRINGING IDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
ON MONDAY. IDA IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AS IT ENTRAINS ABUNDANT MID LAYER DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES STRETCHED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG A
FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE F.S.U. CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM SHOWS IDA
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE
THIS LIKELY TRANSITION...OUR AREA WILL STILL GET QUITE A BIT OF
RAIN AND WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THE GFS HAS THE HEAVIEST QPF JUST WEST AND NORTH
OF OUR AREA...WITHIN THE MAIN FRONTOGENESIS BAND. THE ECMWF HAS
THIS RAIN BAND ALL ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. THE NAM
SEEMED MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THE ANSWER PROBABLY LIES
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN
(STORM TOTAL FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. OF COURSE LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD BE DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THIS. FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE...WHICH
SHOULD CAP THE RAINFALL MAXIMA SOMEWHAT. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL...WE
WILL NOT BE USING THE TERMS OF UNCERTAINTY WORDING IN SOME OF OUR
FORECAST PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY
OVER LAND AT THIS TIME AS OUR AREA WILL LIKELY IN A SHALLOW STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.
.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WHAT
REMAINS OF IDA SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION AND KEEP THE WEATHER
RELATIVELY QUIET INTO THE APPROACHING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE SEEN MINOR VIS RESTRICTIONS PAST FEW NIGHT DUE TO A
PRESCRIBED BURN SOUTH OF THE KTLH AIRPORT. PILOTS SHOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL VIS RESTRICTIONS AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING IF THE BURN HAS BEEN CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND ALSO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
SCT AFTERNOON CU FIELDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN OUR OUTER COASTAL
WATERS SO WE ISSUED AN ADVISORY. A GALE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED SOON...AS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (OR EVEN A
WATCH/WARNING) AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED SOON.
THE LATEST EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A SURGE UP
TO 2 FEET AT APALACHICOLA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT OUR LOCAL SLOSH
MEOW FOR A NORTHWARD-MOVING TROPICAL STORM IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND KEEPING OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 50 79 59 76 66 / 0 0 10 30 60
PANAMA CITY 55 78 63 76 67 / 0 0 10 50 70
DOTHAN 47 77 57 73 61 / 0 0 10 40 60
ALBANY 46 77 56 75 64 / 0 0 10 20 60
VALDOSTA 49 77 57 77 64 / 0 0 10 10 60
CROSS CITY 52 80 59 81 65 / 0 0 10 20 60
APALACHICOLA 57 77 64 76 68 / 0 0 10 50 70
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...GODSEY
FIRE WX/AVIATION...MROCZKA
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
000
FXUS62 KKEY 071951 AAA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATED TO ADD WIND ADVISORY
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 20 TO 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES. ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE TO INCORPORATE A
FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL STORM IDA MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN INTO A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BEFORE ENCOUNTERING A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER WIND SHEAR. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT THAT TIME AS WELL.
IDA OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT DUE TO
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO LACK
OF LARGE SCALE LIFT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR SOMETIME THURSDAY. IN WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD INVADE THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR ONE INCH. THIS DRY AIR MASS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DECREASED BY 10 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST TONIGHT
DUE TO FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS. A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WATERS WEST OF
KEY WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON ALL KEYS WATERS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MINIMIZE CROSSWIND
IMPACTS...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ON APPROACH. FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL PASS IN
THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS...WITH A VFR OVERCAST LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1955...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 57 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 7TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 54 YEARS LATER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 77 83 77 84 / 40 60 60 60
MARATHON 77 84 77 85 / 40 60 60 60
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...FLZ076-077-078.
GM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST...GMZ075.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.............DR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 071928
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH
SURF TO CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...
...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
TONIGHT/SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO STRETCH INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 5-10 MPH. HOWEVER WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL REMAIN STRONGER UP TO 10-15 MPH. THE ELEVATED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE CAPE AND LOW-MID 70S FARTHER
SOUTH. FARTHER INLAND MIN TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 60S. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TC IDA WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY BECOMING BREEZY AROUND 15-20
MPH WITH A FEW AREAS POSSIBLY BUILDING TO 20-25 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE STRONGER GRADIENT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES STILL
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH ONSHORE MOVING STRATOCU AND HIGHS SHOULD
REACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES AGAIN IN THE LOW 80S. GFS IS INDICATING
SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS BUT WILL FOLLOW THE DRY MOS
GUIDANCE FOR NOW AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SUN NGT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEAR THE MID ATLC AND IDA MOVING NORTH FROM THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE
COAST AND BREEZY AT TIMES EVEN OVER OPEN INTERIOR AREAS. MODELS DO
NOT INDICATE THAT MUCH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...YET...BUT HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED ATLC SHOWERS.
MONDAY...A WINDY DAY IN STORE WITH E WINDS VEERING TO ESE/SE LATER
IN THE DAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN GULF BUT
STRENGTH OF LOW LVL FLOW TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLC SHOULD SUPPORT
ISOLD ATLC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. WILL LIKELY NEED WIND OR LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO POUND
THE BEACHES AND MAY BE LIFTING HIGH SURF ADVISORY BY MONDAY WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS AND 9-11
FT OFFSHORE. LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY SHOULD HAVE
SOME INCREASING CIRRUS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...IDA FORECAST TO MOVE TWD THE NRN/NE GULF WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND STRENGTHENING LOW LVL SE/S
FLOW. WILL NUDGE UP POPS ACROSS THE NORTH JUST A BIT TO NEAR 30
PCT...WITH 20 PCT FOR SE SECTIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...IDA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONT AND
S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE PENINSULA TUE AND THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH SCATTERED RANGE. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHOWERS. THE
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO TUE NIGHT OVER THE AREA AND MAY
HAVE TO INCREASE POPS THIS PERIOD WITH LATER FORECASTS...FOR NOW
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO THE SCATTERED RANGE.
WED-THU...WED STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WET WITH SCATTERED RANGE POPS AS
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH NEXT SURGE IN THE E/NE FLOW
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN TWD THE MID
ATLC. 12Z ECM HAD A 10 MB GRADIENT FROM JAX-MIA THU MORNING BEHIND
THE FRONT AND GFS HAS AN 8 MB GRADIENT. A SUB 990 LOW LOOKS TO BOMB
OFFSHORE CAPE COD WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO THE STRONG E-NE FLOW
WED NIGHT AND THU. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER BEYOND THU...BUT ANOTHER
WINDY PERIOD FOR THE COAST THU AND MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
ONCE AGAIN.
FRI-SAT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TWD THE MID ATLC AND PUSH
OFFSHORE SAT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS PERIOD WITH
RELATIVELY DRY ONSHORE FLOW THOUGH A FEW ATLC SHOWERS MAY MOVE
ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. E/NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KTS AND GUSTS 20-25 KTS
DECREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST TO 5-10 KTS INTERIOR
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN AFT 14Z TO 15-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT/SUNDAY...SCA CRITERIA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG EASTERLY
GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FROM THE MID ATLC
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IDA TRACKS NWD THROUGH THE GULF. HAVE ADDED
VOLUSIA NEAR SHORE WATERS IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUN NGT THROUGH
MON NGT. SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS NEAR THE
COAST AND 25 KNOT OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD. SFC WINDS BECOME SE TUE AND
DECREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BUT STILL ADVISORY LVL SEAS EXPECTED
OFFSHORE. MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE WINDS EARLY WED AS FRONT
APPROACHES BUT STRONG NE/E FLOW WILL COME BACK IN ERNEST WED NGT/THU
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TWD THE MID ATLC THROUGH LATE WEEK. ALL IN
ALL...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO AT LEAST
THU.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 75 THROUGH MONDAY
WITH STRONG ONSHORE SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 79 70 83 / 0 10 10 20
MCO 62 82 67 84 / 0 10 10 10
MLB 72 80 74 84 / 0 10 10 20
VRB 73 80 74 84 / 10 10 10 20
LEE 62 83 66 84 / 0 10 10 10
SFB 63 83 67 85 / 0 10 10 10
ORL 64 82 68 85 / 0 10 10 10
FPR 73 80 76 84 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
000
FXUS62 KJAX 071915
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE SRN U.S. WITH
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING RIDGE FROM NC TO LA AND ERN TX. OBSERVATIONS
SHOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S NOTED OVER
MARION COUNTY. A SCT STRATOCU FIELD HAS EXPANDED INTO MOST OF NE
FL AND PORTIONS OF SE GA. T.S. IDA NOW A BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS
OF NEAR 70 MPH AND PSN ABOUT 230 MILES SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...MOVING
N ABOUT 9 MPH AT 1 PM.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT-TUE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO
SHIFT EWD AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER S CONUS MOVING EWD AND ALLOWING
IDA TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NWD TRACK. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM UP AS
THE ENE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE E AND THEN SE DURING THE PERIOD.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SW AND W
BETWEEN MON AND TUE WITH THE BEST LIFT INDICATED FROM THE GFS MOVING
INTO THE AREA ON TUE. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE 00Z ECMWF AS FAR
AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE LLVL WIND FIELDS. POPS FORECAST SHOWS
10-20% ON MON TO 30-50% MON NIGHT AND 50-60% ON TUE...USING A BLEND
OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS MOS. FOR TUE TIME FRAME...
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY BUT
COMPENSATED BY RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE ON
THE HEAVY SIDE AT TIMES GIVEN THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. AS FAR AS WINDS ...ELY
FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT BREEZY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS IDA PROGRESS NWD BUMPING UP AGAIN THE SFC
RIDGE TO OUR N AND NE. ELY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH EXPECTED SUN AND
MON ALONG NE FL COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH WITH MORE
SELY FLOW EXPECTED ON TUE BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT LOWER AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT).
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST REGARDING REMAINS OF IDA. TPC HAS THE SYSTEM ABOUT 100
MILES S OF APALACHICOLA WED MORNING. LATE WED THROUGH THU...
EXPECTATION IS THAT IDA WILL SHIFT EWD AND THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
PUSH SWD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N THROUGH AS MID LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVES OFF THE E COAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
DOMINATE THE REGION JUST TO OUR N FRI AND SAT RESULTING IN
LITTLE...IF ANY...RAIN CHANCE AND AN ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT
INCREASED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD PRECLUDE REDUCTIONS BELOW
6SM. WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AND 25 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...TIGHTEST OBSERVED GRADIENT TODAY HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF
OUR COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH PREDOMINANT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NEARSHORE AND 15 TO 20 OVER THE OFFSHORE. THIS IS INLINE WITH
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS
IDA LIFTS NORTH AND MODERATELY STRONG HIGH REMAINS OVER THE
CAROLINAS...GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE LOOK TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS...BUT NOT UNTIL 12Z SUN AND WILL THEREFORE DELAY THE ONSET
OF SCA IN LATEST GRID SET FOR THE OFFSHORE FLORIDA PORTION.
CONSIDERING THE CIRCUMSTANCES WITH IDA LIKELY BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL IN THE EXTENDED...LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN OTHERWISE FOR AN EVENT SUCH AS THIS AND HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS
A LITTLE FURTHER IN THE LONG TERM. STILL NOT GOING AS HIGH AS THE
30 KNOTS SUSTAINED IN THE ECMWF BUT A BLEND WITH THE GFS YIELDS
CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES IN POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ON WED.
WILL LIKELY NEED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR AT LEAST THE
FLORIDA PORTION ON SUNDAY AS WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WILL UPDATE CURRENT OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 47 79 56 78 / 0 0 10 10
SSI 57 75 63 76 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 55 78 60 78 / 0 0 10 20
SGJ 62 78 69 80 / 0 0 10 20
GNV 53 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 56 82 62 84 / 10 0 0 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/DEESE/KEEGAN
000
FXUS62 KMFL 071903
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...CONTINUED WINDY WITH ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIB NW ACROSS THE E
GULF OF MEX AND INTO THE SE U.S. GULF COAST STATES...GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC BY MON
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ALIGNED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH TROPICAL
STORM IDA IN THE W CARIB AND FORECASTED BY NHC TO CONTINUE TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MON...THE CURRENT HIGH PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...DUE TO THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING IDA TO THE SW...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...INCREASING
THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS S FLA.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AREAWIDE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE WIND AFFECTING THE E COAST.
WITH THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING...SUSTAINED WINDS AND
GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE
STRONGEST WINDS SUN INTO MON. THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT THOUGH UPON THE
TRACK/INTENSITY OF IDA. A WIND ADVISORY AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE E
MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON BUT AWAIT W CARIB/GULF DEVELOPMENTS. OTHER
-WISE...FORECAST ROABS INDICATE DRY/STABLE MID LEVELS WHICH GRAD
-UALLY MOISTENS ALLOWING ESSENTIALLY ONLY PASSING SHOWERS ON THE
BREEZE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SO...
LOW POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO SEEP NORTHWARD
OVER S FLA MON AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SE. THIS WILL INCREASE POPS
OVER THE SW PORTION OF S FLA MON WITH AN INCREASE POPS ALONG THE
COASTS MON NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA REMAINS W OF S FLA OVER THE GULF.
.EXTENDED PERIOD...TUE THROUGH SATURDAY
A LOT DEPENDS UPON THE EXACT PATH OF IDA. SOME MODELS SEND THE
SYSTEM INTO THE FLA PANHANDLE AND SOME INTO THE E GULF. WILL FOLLOW
THE CURRENT NHC TRACK WHICH TAKES IDA TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE E GULF BY WED IN A WEAKENED CONDITION
WHICH FINALLY HAS THE SYSTEM BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SE U.S. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH S FLA WED. THUS...A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUE THRU
EARLY WED WITH DECREASING CHANCES END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE E U.S. MAY
INCREASE WINDS AGAIN THU AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ZONES IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE MORNING AS
WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20+ KTS WITH INCREASES SUN AND MON POSSIBLE.
SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AS WELL. VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS E COAST BEACHES. THOUGH WINDS RELAX AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE TUE INTO WED...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT THU INDICATES
A STRONG PRES GRADIENT REDEVELOPING WHICH LEADS TO INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS AGAIN ON THU FROM N TO S.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 83 78 85 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 84 79 84 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 76 83 78 85 / 20 20 30 20
NAPLES 68 87 70 89 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GS/GS
000
FXUS62 KKEY 071841
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
145 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM CRAIG KEY TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 20 TO 25
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES. ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
THE MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE TO INCORPORATE A
FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL STORM IDA MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN INTO A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...BEFORE ENCOUNTERING A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER WIND SHEAR. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AT THAT TIME AS WELL.
IDA OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BEGIN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO LACK
OF LARGE SCALE LIFT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR SOMETIME THURSDAY. IN WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD INVADE THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR ONE INCH. THIS DRY AIR MASS
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE DECREASED BY 10 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST TONIGHT
DUE TO FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS. A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR WATERS WEST OF
KEY WEST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON ALL KEYS WATERS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL MINIMIZE CROSSWIND
IMPACTS...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE ON APPROACH. FAST MOVING SHOWERS WILL PASS IN
THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS...WITH A VFR OVERCAST LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1955...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 57 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 7TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 54 YEARS LATER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 77 83 77 84 / 40 60 60 60
MARATHON 77 84 77 85 / 40 60 60 60
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST...GMZ075.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.............DR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 071820
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
120 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...KEEPING AN EYE ON IDA...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL ZONES AS DEEPER
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH INTO THE REGION ON A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AHEAD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
CURRENT NHC TRACK OF IDA ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA KEEPS IDA
WELL TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...AND IF IT TRACKS
EVEN FURTHER WEST...THEN SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM
WOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES QUITE LOW FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS EXACT TRACK WILL DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
POPS 20% FOR NOW MAINLY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH INLAND AREA
REMAINING DRY WITH POPS AT 10% OR LESS. OF COURSE IF THE STORMS DOES
TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
CONSIDERABLY IN LATER FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF THE RAIN CHANCES THOUGH
INCREASING WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL POSE AN INCREASED
RISK FOR TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION...SO STAY TUNED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY...THEN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE LONG
TERM WILL BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH IDA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TAKES
IDA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GOMEX
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM LIFTING OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WED
AND THURS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NW. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING. IDA
SHOULD THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LIFT OUT TO THE NE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE LOCAL AREA
AS STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT.
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON IDA`S TRACK. SHOULD IT
GO FURTHER WEST...THE LOCAL AREA MAY BE IN A MORE SUBSIDENT REGION
AND NOT SEE MUCH RAIN/WIND. SHOULD IT TRACK MORE EAST...RAIN AND
WINDS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED. EITHER WAY HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF TORNADOES.
PLEASE STAY ADVISED OF THE LATEST NHC FORECASTS FOR IDA.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY EVENING WINDS DECREASING TO 7-11KTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FOR LATER SUNDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT (6-8MB) BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY WIND/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IDA MOVES
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE GFS SHOWS WINDS IN THE 25
TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER MY OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH LOOKS
QUITE REASONABLE AT THE MOMENT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF IDA...SO WILL
DEPICT IN THE GRIDS AND MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE IDA OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MODERATE TO STRONG
20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS COMBINED WITH MIXING HEIGHT IN THE 3-4KFT
RANGE WILL PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSION INDICES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 64 83 67 86 / 5 10 10 20
FMY 66 83 68 86 / 5 10 10 20
GIF 63 80 67 85 / 5 10 10 10
SRQ 65 84 68 87 / 5 10 10 20
BKV 59 82 64 86 / 5 10 10 10
SPG 67 80 70 84 / 5 10 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KMFL 071743
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1243 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BE
MAIN IMPACTS. WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF A FEW MPH
AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY INTERIOR TERMINALS BUT KEPT WINDS NEAR UPR
RANGE OF MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO STRENGTHENING IDA TO THE SOUTH AND
WHATS LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FCST PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL GUST OVER 30KT AT TIMES. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH CIGS OF 4-6K FT AT TIMES THRU THE PERIOD.
/STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.WINDY WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL
STORM IDA NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COAST IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY. WHAT THIS ENTAILS
LOCALLY IS AN INCREASE IN THE ALREADY STRONG ENE WIND FLOW...AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER. SO IT WILL CONTINUE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS SHOW WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN THE 25-28KT
RANGE TODAY BUT INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH WILL PREVAIL TODAY (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)...BUT
SUN-MON EXPECT THE GUSTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY 40 MPH. SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON.
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL MOISTENING
OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS.
THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT PATH T.S. IDA TAKES. THE CURRENT NHC TAKES IDA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY...THEN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING
AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. ON THIS TRACK...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND ORGANIZED PRECIP/CONVECTION WOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE
GULF WEST OF SOUTH FL. 07/00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...OUR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST CONTINUE
TO LOOK LIKE THE RIGHT WAY TO GO. OF COURSE...IF IDA ENDS UP
TRENDING FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THIS WOULD PAINT A MUCH WETTER
PICTURE WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
INCREASING HELICITY TAKES PLACE BY MONDAY...BUT SOUNDING PROFILES
CONTINUE STABLE. HOWEVER...BY MON NIGHT/TUE...INSTABILITY
INCREASES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST...ALONG WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY IN THE 100-150 M2/S2 RANGE. GIVEN CURRENT FCST OF
IDA...THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OUTSIDE THE MOST FAVORABLE DISTANCE
FOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD BE A TIMEFRAME TO WATCH OUT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE
PRESENCE OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...ON THIS CURRENT TRACK...THIS RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AS SAID ABOVE CONCERNING RAIN...THIS WOULD ALL
CHANGE SHOULD THE IDA TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
GFS/ECWMF ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING IDA MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING OUT OF TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WED-THU.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...CREATING A
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH...CREATING ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS
(SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN LOCALLY MAY BE MID WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MUCH CAN
CHANGE THOUGH SO STAYED WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE >20 KT...EVEN INCREASING TO 25-30
KT SUN-MON. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LOOK PLAUSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
SO VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT HOW WINDS BEHIND A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK PLAYS OUT...BECAUSE BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
STRONG NE WINDS OFF THE NE/EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WED...SPREADING
INTO OUR PALM BEACH WATERS THU. THIS COULD PRODUCE A LARGE SWELL
BY THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS NEAR 5 METERS OFF EAST CENTRAL FL
EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING INTO OUR WATERS BY THU AFTERNOON. WE
HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 83 78 85 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 84 79 84 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 76 83 78 85 / 20 20 30 20
NAPLES 68 87 70 89 / 10 20 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KKEY 071431
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
935 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM MARATHON TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR 25
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S.
ONLY ABOUT FOUR DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TODAY. FARTHER NORTH...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE
CAROLINAS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SERVICE AREA WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS STRONG ANTICYCLONE TODAY. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AND QUITE MOIST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER...WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE MAY INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. BY
SUNSET THIS EVENING...PWAT VALUES SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. DESPITE THIS ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WHICH
WOULD PROMPT HIGHER POPS...WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON.
LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD CHANCES POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS BELOW ALL
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS. THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES A TAD
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 25
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AND SEAS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KEYS ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A VEERING NORTHEAST WIND WILL ALLOW CROSSWINDS TO
DROP BELOW 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS LATER TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE. FAST MOVING SHOWERS LIKELY WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS AFTER 18Z...AND A VFR OVERCAST IS
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1958...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 88 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 7TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 51 YEARS LATER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS...
GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.............MP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 071419
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
919 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE 13 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
FROM CAPE HATTERAS NC TO EAST TX. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12 UTC KTAE SOUNDING SHOWED
A TEN-FOLD INCREASE IN PRECIP WATER OVER 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH IS
UNUSUAL GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN. THE UPSTREAM OB AT KJAX DID NOT INDICATE SUCH A MOISTURE
INCREASE...SO WE THINK THERE WAS A BAD HUMIDITY SENSOR ON OURS.
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AREAS OF SMOKE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND KTLH HAVE
LIFTED WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES NOW BEING OBSERVED. WILL
CHECK IN ON THE PROGRESS OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE SMOKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...HOWEVER PILOTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE
SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL VIS RESTRICTIONS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING IF
THE BURN IS CONTINUED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AND ALSO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCT AFTERNOON
CU FIELDS.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MROCZKA
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER
000
FXUS62 KJAX 071410
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...UPPER AIR PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE AT 500 MB CENTERED
OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS SEWD INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. FLOW AT 250 MB IS ZONAL OVER OUR FORECAST WITH
FLOW OUT OF THE SW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SLY OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN AROUND T.S. IDA. PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
NOTED OVER THE THIS AREA. WE ANTICIPATE ONCL SCT CI OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SW AND W. AT SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER ERN NC WITH RIDGE INTO THE MS/LA
AREA. NE TO E FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE LOW
LEVELS AND EARLY VIS DOES SHOW SCT STRATO CU ADVECTING IN OFF THE
ATLC. THE JAX SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 900 MB SO A
FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXED LAYER TO ABOUT 3600 FT EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENE AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND ELY AROUND 10 KT INLAND. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST AND UPPER 70S INLAND.
OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS AND SKY CONDITIONS...NO OTHER
CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TODAY WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCU EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR
THE TAFS. WINDS ENE ABOUT 10-12 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE OBS SHOW WINDS ARE ELY 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 19 KT.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY AVERAGING 3-5 FT PER RECENT REPORTS. S OF OUR
SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. MAY GO AHEAD AND SCALE BACK THE SCA TO
SCEC HEADLINE FOR TODAY BUT KEEP UP TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS
MAY STILL BE BORDERLINE AT SCA CRITERIA.
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/DEESE/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 071407
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
907 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF
THE AREA AND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. E/NE WINDS ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COAST ARE ALREADY UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
THIS MORNING. INLAND COUNTIES AND ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST WILL
FOLLOW SUIT WITH WINDS INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MARINE
STRATOCU MOVING ONSHORE AND INLAND WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER A LITTLE
HIGHER DIRECTLY ALONG THE COAST BUT STILL SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE THROUGH OUT THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING NEAR TO AROUND
THE 80 DEGREE MARK MOST LOCATIONS. SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST
TO INDICATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. E/NE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN STRONG GRADIENT FLOW CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF
THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. CAUTION WILL BE USED NORTH OF THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA LINE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/VOLKMER
000
FXUS62 KTBW 071330
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
830 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE
25-30 KNOT RANGE NOTED UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND
850MB (VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN DURING THE DAY AS
HEATING OCCURS RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST. GIVEN THIS WILL BUMP UP WINDS INTO THE BREEZY RANGE (15
TO 25 MPH) IN A LATE MORNING UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO OTHER GRID/ZONE
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH AND TROPICAL STORM IDA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WITH HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES AND ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE...BUT WILL ADD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE BAY GIVEN
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE REST OF TODAY...BUT THESE
MODERATE WINDS COMBINED WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 4KFT WILL PRODUCE
HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TAMPA BAY.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KKEY 071329 CCA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND
LOWER PRESSURE...DUE TO TROPICAL STORM IDA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG EAST NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 25 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS. SEVERAL MARINE REPORTS HAVE
INDICATED 11 TO 12 FEET OVER PORTIONS OF KEYS ATLANTIC WATERS. THUS
FAR...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...EAST NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY...AND A FAIRLY
DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR THE KEYS. DOPPLER RADAR DOES INDICATE A SWATH OF FAST
MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER STRAITS.
FORECAST - THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THEN
NORTHWESTWARD...ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS WILL REMAIN VERY TIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARDS...LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FAST FLOW...AND THE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OF AN OLD BAND OF MOISTURE. THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM IDA IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS HAVE THE MAKINGS OF A FAIRLY WET FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...GENERAL WIND AND POP TRENDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE WILL BE PRETTY NARROW DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IDA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL DISTANCE ITSELF
FROM THE KEYS...WHILE THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WEAKER LOWER
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...AS WELL AS A DRYING OF THE AIR COLUMN WILL PROMPT
A QUICK TRANSITION TO NEAR NORMAL POPS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG BREEZES...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST...AND TURN TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY INTO
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SHIFTS
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVE NORTH OF OUR
LATITUDE INTO THEN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A GALE WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EYW AND MTH.
A VEERING NORTHEAST WIND WILL ALLOW CROSSWINDS TO DROP BELOW 12
KNOTS. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS LATER TODAY WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. SHOWERS LIKELY WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF TERMINALS AFTER 18Z...AND A VFR OVERCAST IS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 82 77 83 78 / 50 50 60 60
MARATHON 83 77 84 78 / 50 50 60 60
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL KEYS WATERS.
&&
$$
11/KBK
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 071318
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
817 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE
VA/NC AREA AND WITH IDA MOVING N THROUGH THE CARIB...A SLOWLY
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT REMAINS OVER S FLA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15
TO 20 MPH ALONG THE E COAST WITH GUSTS WILL OVER 25 MPH WITH SOME
BROACHING 30 MPH. MORNING UPPER AIR RAOB INDICATES VERY DRY STABLE
MID LEVEL AIR AND KAMX RADAR AT THE MOMENT ECHO FREE BUT A STRAY
SHOWER ON THE BREEZE POSSIBLE. THE DAY WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY
SUNNY AT BEST AS CLOUDS FROM THE NW CARIB WAFT OUR WAY.
IN THE MARINE ZONES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALREADY EXISTS FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES AND OF COURSE WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ATLC BEACHES AND HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
..WINDY WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL
STORM IDA NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COAST IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY. WHAT THIS ENTAILS
LOCALLY IS AN INCREASE IN THE ALREADY STRONG ENE WIND FLOW...AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER. SO IT WILL CONTINUE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS SHOW WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN THE 25-28KT
RANGE TODAY BUT INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH WILL PREVAIL TODAY (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)...BUT
SUN-MON EXPECT THE GUSTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY 40 MPH. SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON.
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL MOISTENING
OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS.
THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT PATH T.S. IDA TAKES. THE CURRENT NHC TAKES IDA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY...THEN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING
AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. ON THIS TRACK...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND ORGANIZED PRECIP/CONVECTION WOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE
GULF WEST OF SOUTH FL. 07/00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...OUR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST CONTINUE
TO LOOK LIKE THE RIGHT WAY TO GO. OF COURSE...IF IDA ENDS UP
TRENDING FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THIS WOULD PAINT A MUCH WETTER
PICTURE WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
INCREASING HELICITY TAKES PLACE BY MONDAY...BUT SOUNDING PROFILES
CONTINUE STABLE. HOWEVER...BY MON NIGHT/TUE...INSTABILITY
INCREASES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST...ALONG WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY IN THE 100-150 M2/S2 RANGE. GIVEN CURRENT FCST OF
IDA...THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OUTSIDE THE MOST FAVORABLE DISTANCE
FOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD BE A TIMEFRAME TO WATCH OUT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE
PRESENCE OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...ON THIS CURRENT TRACK...THIS RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AS SAID ABOVE CONCERNING RAIN...THIS WOULD ALL
CHANGE SHOULD THE IDA TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
GFS/ECWMF ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING IDA MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING OUT OF TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WED-THU.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...CREATING A
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH...CREATING ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS
(SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN LOCALLY MAY BE MID WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MUCH CAN
CHANGE THOUGH SO STAYED WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE >20 KT...EVEN INCREASING TO 25-30
KT SUN-MON. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LOOK PLAUSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
SO VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT HOW WINDS BEHIND A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK PLAYS OUT...BECAUSE BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
STRONG NE WINDS OFF THE NE/EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WED...SPREADING
INTO OUR PALM BEACH WATERS THU. THIS COULD PRODUCE A LARGE SWELL
BY THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS NEAR 5 METERS OFF EAST CENTRAL FL
EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING INTO OUR WATERS BY THU AFTERNOON. WE
HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 75 83 78 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 76 83 79 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 82 75 83 78 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 86 67 88 71 / - - 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...15/JR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 071137
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION TIGHTENS AND EASTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS SLOWLY
INCREASE. WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS TODAY...WITH TERMINAL KAPF FORECAST TO
HAVE 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH CEILINGS OF 4 TO 6 KFT POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS. AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT PASSING
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
..WINDY WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY...
DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL
STORM IDA NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COAST IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY. WHAT THIS ENTAILS
LOCALLY IS AN INCREASE IN THE ALREADY STRONG ENE WIND FLOW...AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER. SO IT WILL CONTINUE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS SHOW WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN THE 25-28KT
RANGE TODAY BUT INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH WILL PREVAIL TODAY (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)...BUT
SUN-MON EXPECT THE GUSTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY 40 MPH. SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON.
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL MOISTENING
OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS.
THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT PATH T.S. IDA TAKES. THE CURRENT NHC TAKES IDA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY...THEN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING
AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. ON THIS TRACK...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND ORGANIZED PRECIP/CONVECTION WOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE
GULF WEST OF SOUTH FL. 07/00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...OUR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST CONTINUE
TO LOOK LIKE THE RIGHT WAY TO GO. OF COURSE...IF IDA ENDS UP
TRENDING FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THIS WOULD PAINT A MUCH WETTER
PICTURE WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
INCREASING HELICITY TAKES PLACE BY MONDAY...BUT SOUNDING PROFILES
CONTINUE STABLE. HOWEVER...BY MON NIGHT/TUE...INSTABILITY
INCREASES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST...ALONG WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY IN THE 100-150 M2/S2 RANGE. GIVEN CURRENT FCST OF
IDA...THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OUTSIDE THE MOST FAVORABLE DISTANCE
FOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD BE A TIMEFRAME TO WATCH OUT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE
PRESENCE OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...ON THIS CURRENT TRACK...THIS RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AS SAID ABOVE CONCERNING RAIN...THIS WOULD ALL
CHANGE SHOULD THE IDA TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
GFS/ECWMF ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING IDA MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING OUT OF TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WED-THU.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...CREATING A
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH...CREATING ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS
(SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN LOCALLY MAY BE MID WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MUCH CAN
CHANGE THOUGH SO STAYED WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE >20 KT...EVEN INCREASING TO 25-30
KT SUN-MON. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LOOK PLAUSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
SO VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT HOW WINDS BEHIND A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK PLAYS OUT...BECAUSE BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
STRONG NE WINDS OFF THE NE/EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WED...SPREADING
INTO OUR PALM BEACH WATERS THU. THIS COULD PRODUCE A LARGE SWELL
BY THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS NEAR 5 METERS OFF EAST CENTRAL FL
EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING INTO OUR WATERS BY THU AFTERNOON. WE
HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 75 83 78 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 76 83 79 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 82 75 83 78 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 86 67 88 71 / - - 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KTAE 071010
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
510 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE SFC RIDGE HOLDING IN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LOW
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP BELOW THE PREVIOUS DAY
SHIFT FCST ONCE AGAIN....SO THE EVENING UPDATE LOW TEMPS FROM FRI
NIGHT ARE LOOKING VERY PROMISING AT THIS POINT. ALSO SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT THE TLH AIRPORT IS REPORTING SOME VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SMOKE FROM EARLIER PRESCRIBED BURNS...AND THIN CIRRUS IS ONCE AGAIN
TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY E-NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE E-NE
WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN ON THE FENCE BETWEEN SCA AND SCEC CONDITIONS...
BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SCEC IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS A RATHER
PROLONGED AND STOUT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE THE WATERS
TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AFTER YET ANOTHER CHILLY
START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC RIDGE MOVES A BIT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM
THE CWA TONIGHT...A MORE SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LOWS VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A QUICK WARMUP ON SUNDAY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. THEN...ALL
EYES WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH WHERE NOW TROPICAL STORM IDA
(WHICH HAS JUST INCREASED IN INTENSITY BACK TO TS STRENGTH AS OF 4
AM EST) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NNW FROM NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SUNDAY EVENING. BASED OF THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FCST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...IDA IS THEN
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY MONDAY EVENING...SO THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE INTRODUCTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER MON
MORNING...WITH HIGHER POPS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW...
BECOMES EVEN MORE COMPLEX...AS IDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A MORE
HOSTILE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRIES TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD
WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE IT TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY). QUITE THE
COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE
PREDICTED TRACK OF IDA AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING TROF.
WITH IDA MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...AT ABOUT THIS TIME IDA WILL BE WITHIN RATHER
STRONG WIND SHEAR AND LIKELY BE TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. AS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IDA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
CREATE A LARGE AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER LAND TUESDAY. HELD POPS BACK 10
TO 20 PERCENT FROM THE GUIDANCE VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NHC FORECAST.
WITH THE NEXT TROF MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY
EVENING...THE REMNANTS OF IDA INTERTWINED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE PUSHED BACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THERE SEEMS TO BE RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS ON
THIS POINT. IT IS IN THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING THAT OUR REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES WHAT REMAINS OF IDA SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL ACROSS THE
REGION AND KEEP THE WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET INTO THE APPROACHING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...SMOKE CONTINUES TO REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO AROUND
2SM TO 3SM AT TLH...THUS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING NEAR SUNRISE.
OTHER THAN THIS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL SITES TOMORROW
WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CI INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE STILL STRADDLING THE FENCE
WITH SCEC AND SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE
WITH THE SFC RIDGE INITIALLY MOVING FURTHER AWAY AS IDA BEGINS OUT
AS A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM...THAT WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. BY TONIGHT...
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE IN FULL FORCE WITH WINDS
AND SEAS CONTINUING TO INCREASE AS IDA APPROACHES...WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION LIKELY BEING WHEN TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH OR WARNING WHICH
APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE NEEDED FOR PERHAPS A DECENT PORTION OF
THIS EVENT GIVEN THE ENHANCEMENT OF GRADIENT WINDS FROM THE BUILDING
SFC RIDGE TO THE N.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH RH`S MAY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 2 TO 3
HOURS ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...
JUST ISSUED A REMARK AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 79 51 81 59 80 / 00 00 05 10 20
PANAMA CITY 77 58 81 63 79 / 00 00 05 10 40
DOTHAN 75 45 78 56 76 / 00 00 05 10 30
ALBANY 75 46 79 55 78 / 00 00 05 10 20
VALDOSTA 77 50 81 57 81 / 00 00 05 10 20
CROSS CITY 80 52 83 60 83 / 00 00 05 10 20
APALACHICOLA 75 58 78 66 78 / 00 00 05 10 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...GODSEY
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 070959
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
459 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...WINDY WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY...
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL
STORM IDA NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COAST IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY. WHAT THIS ENTAILS
LOCALLY IS AN INCREASE IN THE ALREADY STRONG ENE WIND FLOW...AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FURTHER. SO IT WILL CONTINUE
WINDY...ESPECIALLY ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
GFS SHOW WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET IN THE 25-28KT
RANGE TODAY BUT INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH WILL PREVAIL TODAY (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY)...BUT
SUN-MON EXPECT THE GUSTS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY 40 MPH. SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON.
THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES QUITE DRY. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL MOISTENING
OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AND SUNDAY.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS.
THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALL
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT PATH T.S. IDA TAKES. THE CURRENT NHC TAKES IDA
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY...THEN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY WHILE WEAKENING
AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. ON THIS TRACK...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE AND ORGANIZED PRECIP/CONVECTION WOULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE
GULF WEST OF SOUTH FL. 07/00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE HEAVY RAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...OUR LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE EXTENDED FCST CONTINUE
TO LOOK LIKE THE RIGHT WAY TO GO. OF COURSE...IF IDA ENDS UP
TRENDING FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THIS WOULD PAINT A MUCH WETTER
PICTURE WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
INCREASING HELICITY TAKES PLACE BY MONDAY...BUT SOUNDING PROFILES
CONTINUE STABLE. HOWEVER...BY MON NIGHT/TUE...INSTABILITY
INCREASES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST...ALONG WITH 0-3KM
HELICITY IN THE 100-150 M2/S2 RANGE. GIVEN CURRENT FCST OF
IDA...THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OUTSIDE THE MOST FAVORABLE DISTANCE
FOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD BE A TIMEFRAME TO WATCH OUT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND THE
PRESENCE OF SHEAR. HOWEVER...ON THIS CURRENT TRACK...THIS RISK
LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT AS SAID ABOVE CONCERNING RAIN...THIS WOULD ALL
CHANGE SHOULD THE IDA TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
GFS/ECWMF ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN HAVING IDA MERGING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING OUT OF TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WED-THU.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...CREATING A
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH...CREATING ADDITIONAL MARINE CONCERNS
(SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW). WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN LOCALLY MAY BE MID WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MUCH CAN
CHANGE THOUGH SO STAYED WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE
MORNING AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE >20 KT...EVEN INCREASING TO 25-30
KT SUN-MON. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LOOK PLAUSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
SO VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OUT HOW WINDS BEHIND A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK PLAYS OUT...BECAUSE BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
STRONG NE WINDS OFF THE NE/EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WED...SPREADING
INTO OUR PALM BEACH WATERS THU. THIS COULD PRODUCE A LARGE SWELL
BY THURSDAY. WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS NEAR 5 METERS OFF EAST CENTRAL FL
EARLY THURSDAY...SPREADING INTO OUR WATERS BY THU AFTERNOON. WE
HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 75 83 78 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 76 83 79 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 82 75 83 78 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 86 67 88 71 / - - 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KKEY 070930
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
430 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND
LOWER PRESSURE...DUE TO TROPICAL STORM IDA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONG EAST NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 25 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS. SEVERAL MARINE REPORTS HAVE
INDICATED 11 TO 12 FEET OVER PORTIONS OF KEYS ATLANTIC WATERS. THUS
FAR...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...EAST NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY...AND A FAIRLY
DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR THE KEYS. DOPPLER RADAR DOES INDICATE A SWATH OF FAST
MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER STRAITS.
FORECAST - THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THEN
NORTHWESTWARD...ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS WILL REMAIN VERY TIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KEYS. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARDS...LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FAST FLOW...AND THE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OF AN OLD BAND OF MOISTURE. THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM IDA IN
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FACTORS HAVE THE MAKINGS OF A FAIRLY WET FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...GENERAL WIND AND POP TRENDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. DIURNAL
TEMP RANGE WILL BE PRETTY NARROW DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IDA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL DISTANCE ITSELF
FROM THE KEYS...WHILE THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WEAKER LOWER
LOWER LEVEL FLOW...AS WELL AS A DRYING OF THE AIR COLUMN WILL PROMPT
A QUICK TRANSITION TO NEAR NORMAL POPS.
.MARINE...
STRONG BREEZES...WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST...AND TURN TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE MONDAY INTO
MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SHIFTS
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVE NORTH OF OUR
LATITUDE INTO THEN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A GALE WARNING MAY
BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EYW AND MTH.
A VEERING NORTHEAST WIND WILL ALLOW CROSSWINDS TO DROP BELOW 12
KNOTS. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS LATER TODAY WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
LOW-LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. SHOWERS LIKELY WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF TERMINALS AFTER 18Z...AND A VFR OVERCAST IS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 82 77 83 78 / 50 50 60 60
MARATHON 83 77 84 78 / 50 50 60 60
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL KEYS WATERS.
&&
$$
11/KBK
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 070912
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
412 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...
...PERIPHERAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM IDA POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...
TODAY/TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WITH A NORTH
COMPONENT WILL RESTRICT ANY SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE WITH
OTHERWISE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. OPEN CELL STRATO-CU OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL MOVE ASHORE
AND TO SOME DEGREE INLAND BEFORE ERODING IN DRY AIRMASS. LOWS
EXPECTED IN THE 60S WITH SOME NEAR 70 DEGREE READINGS ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS AND TREASURE COAST.
MON-TUE...THE TWO MAIN FEATURES AT PLAY WILL BE THE RATHER LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SEAWARD/EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTS AND TROPICAL STORM IDA MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. MON MORN WILL FIND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AROUND
THE EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING CONTINUED LONG FETCH
EASTERLIES...WHILE IDA SHOULD BE FINDING HER WAY TOWARD THE OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WILL
REINFORCE A BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL WINDY PATTERN WITH A PROLONGED
CONCERN FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF. IDA WILL
ENDEAVOR TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS...ALONG WITH THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF THE MARITIME FLOW
ACROSS ECFL...WILL OFFER A REINTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN MON FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/COUNTIES...THEN INCREASING AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE. THE GFS REMAINS
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN ITS HANDLING OF IDA BUT ITS SOLUTION
IS WITHIN THE REALM OF REASONABLE POSSIBILITIES. THUS...THE
FORECAST FOR TUE BEARS WATCHING AS IDA`S EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FACTORS. IDA MAY MOVE NORTH A LITTLE
FASTER AND THEREBY OFFER A HYBRID-STYLE TORNADO OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE PENINSULA TUE INTO WED. YET...OPPORTUNITIES FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAIN ALSO IMPROVE WITH IDA`S CLOSEST APPROACH.
EXTENDED...IDA SEEMS DESTINED FOR A TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL AS
IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AND BRING ADVERSE
MID-LEVEL SHEAR TO THE REGION. IDA WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED DUE TO
THE ADDED VERTICAL SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ASSIMLATED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...IT WILL INVIGORATE THE FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND ITS REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TUE NITE INTO WED BEFORE GRADUALLY REDUCING. FOR THU AND
FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ALONG WITH SOME OVERALL
DEEP LAYER DRYING.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH CIGS CONFINED AOA 4K FT IN MARINE CLOUDS
MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE COAST. SFC GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25KT AT
COASTAL SITES AND THOSE SITES FROM MLB-VRB-FPR-SUA AFT 13Z.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA CRITERIA IN
STRONG GRADIENT FLOW CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY
LINE. CAUTION WILL BE USED NORTH OF THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA LINE FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS SUPPORTING SCA CONDITIONS SUN THROUGH WED.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 79 63 81 69 / 0 10 0 10
MCO 80 63 81 67 / 0 10 0 10
MLB 79 68 82 74 / 0 10 0 10
VRB 80 70 82 75 / 0 10 0 10
LEE 80 62 83 66 / 0 10 10 10
SFB 81 62 83 67 / 0 10 10 10
ORL 81 63 82 68 / 0 10 10 10
FPR 80 71 82 75 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....DS
000
FXUS62 KTBW 070823 CCA
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
CORRECTED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES IN WHAT WILL REMAIN A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. AS IDA TRACKS NORTH OUT OF
THE CARRIBEAN BY SUNDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
INCREASE. ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO RAISE SKY
COVER A BIT EACH DAY...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE SHIELD OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN H5 RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ATOP FLORIDA. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND THE ACTUAL H8
TEMPERATURES THE MAV MOS SEEMED TO BE TOO HIGH ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD AND SO WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...FORECAST IS BEGINNING
TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE CLARITY THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. WITH IDA CURRENTLY IN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...A NORTHWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE
GOMEX AS A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BY NHC. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL PATH OF IDA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF STILL TRACKS A
LITTLE MORE WEST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
FOR TUESDAY...WITH IDA, OR IT`S REMNANTS, LINGERING IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GOMEX SFC WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THEY
VEER TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IDA SHOULD
GRADUALLY START INTERACTING WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROPAGATING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE SOME OF IT`S
MOISTURE TOWARDS OUR REGION. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30% ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUES AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY...GFS STARTS TO INDICATED A DECOUPLING OF IDA AND IT`S
MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. GFS TAKES
THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY
SHOW THE DECOUPLING...IT STILL HAS THE MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO 30%. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
LOSE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO SFC FLOW LOOKS TO
BRIEFLY WEAKEN. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BACK LATE
WEDNESDAY AS SFC FLOW BACKS TO A MORE ENE FLOW.
FOR THURS AND FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW RAINFALL CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. SFC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE ENE WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 IN THE AFTERNOON
&&
.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND IDA LIFTING NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 28 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF IDA CAN
BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RH
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 63 84 66 / 0 5 10 10
FMY 84 66 85 67 / 0 5 10 10
GIF 80 63 83 65 / 0 5 10 10
SRQ 83 64 85 68 / 0 5 10 10
BKV 82 56 84 64 / 0 5 10 10
SPG 80 67 82 70 / 0 5 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20
TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON
000
FXUS62 KTBW 070817
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES IN WHAT WILL REMAIN A VERY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR. AS IDA TRACKS NORTH OUT OF
THE CARRIBEAN BY SUNDAY..THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
INCREASE. ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO RAISE SKY
COVER A BIT EACH DAY...AS THERE LOOKS TO BE A LARGE SHIELD OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
CURRENTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR TODAY AND THEN
SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN H5 RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ATOP FLORIDA. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND THE ACTUAL H8
TEMPERATURES THE MAV MOS SEEMED TO BE TOO HIGH ON THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD AND SO WENT WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...FORECAST IS BEGINNING
TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE CLARITY THIS MORNING WITH REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. WITH IDA CURRENTLY IN THE WARM
WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...A NORTHWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE
GOMEX AS A TROPICAL STORM IS ANTICIPATED BY NHC. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT MORE AGREEMENT TO THE OVERALL PATH OF IDA
AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF STILL TRACKS A
LITTLE MORE WEST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
FOR TUESDAY...WITH IDA, OR IT`S REMNANTS, LINGERING IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GOMEX SFC WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THEY
VEER TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IDA SHOULD
GRADUALLY START INTERACTING WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROPAGATING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE SOME OF IT`S
MOISTURE TOWARDS OUR REGION. NUDGED POPS UP TO 30% ACROSS THE REGION
ON TUES AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY...GFS STARTS TO INDICATED A DECOUPLING OF IDA AND IT`S
MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. GFS TAKES
THIS MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY
SHOW THE DECOUPLING...IT STILL HAS THE MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS TO 30%. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
LOSE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SO SFC FLOW LOOKS TO
BRIEFLY WEAKEN. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BACK LATE
WEDNESDAY AS SFC FLOW BACKS TO A MORE ENE FLOW.
FOR THURS AND FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL WITH LOW RAINFALL CHANCES. ...
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...AND IDA LIFTING NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 28 KNOTS BY EARLY MONDAY IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF IDA CAN
BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RH
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. STRONG SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 82 63 84 66 / 0 5 10 10
FMY 84 66 85 67 / 0 5 10 10
GIF 80 63 83 65 / 0 5 10 10
SRQ 83 64 85 68 / 0 5 10 10
BKV 82 56 84 64 / 0 5 10 10
SPG 80 67 82 70 / 0 5 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60
NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...35/JOHNSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...20/BARRON
000
FXUS62 KJAX 070811
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER LOUISIANA WILL SHIFT IN OUR
DIRECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PERCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL AS HEIGHTS
RISE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTS TO ABOUT 900 MB. CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES IN ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL
BE A LITTLE LESS THAN ALONG THE COAST. MONDAY WILL BE A WARM
NOVEMBER TODAY OVER INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS TEMPERATURES TOP
OUT IN THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF IDA WILL DICTATE OUR WEATHER
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. INTRA-MODEL AND INTER-MODEL RUN DISCREPANCIES
ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM...THUS NO
CHANGES TO POPS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS PACKAGE. ENHANCED FORCING
WITHIN A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STILL LOOKS TO
WIN OUT BY THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW BUT ANY FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
TAFS ATTM.
&&
.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SEPARATION OF GA AND FL NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. WINDS ARE VEERING TO E AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELY
THRU THE WEEKEND WITH LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH. SCA CONDS FOR FL
OFFSHORE LEGS WILL BE BORDERLINE TODAY BUT SEAS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY. THUS WILL KEEP SCA AS IS FOR NOW
ESPECIALLY SINCE WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STORM SYSTEM IN THE GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 75 48 79 53 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 73 58 75 63 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 75 55 77 62 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 76 62 78 67 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 79 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 80 55 82 61 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FERNANDINA BEACH
TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHULER/TRABERT
000
FXUS62 KMFL 070538
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1238 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT BY
SATURDAY...WITH ENE WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS JUST UNDER 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE. OCCASIONAL CEILINGS IN THE 4 TO 6 KFT POSSIBLE
WITH CLOUDS STREAMING IN OFF ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009/
UPDATE...DEEP MOISTURE IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE SW
GULF AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND ATTM HAVE
DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DECIDED NOT
TO DIVE TOO DEEP INTO THE FORECAST SINCE THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF IDA, BUT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK MAY ALSO NEED A BUMP UP IN THE FUTURE. ALSO
ADDED THE MENTION OF SHRA TO COASTAL AND METRO PALM BEACH CO AS
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INLAND, ALBEIT VERY LIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECASTS LOOK AND NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED. /TINGLER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THRU
THE UPCOMING 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A STRONG EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SCT/BKN DECKS
OF SC BETWEEN 4-6 KFT...WITH VFR CIGS /20-25 KFT/ IN CS CONTINUING
AS WELL. SHRA THREAT IS MINIMAL...AND WILL AMEND TO INCLUDE VCSH
IF NECESSARY. ENE SURFACE WINDS ALONG EAST COAST WILL RANGE FROM
15G23 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AT PBI/FLL...TO 12 KNOTS AT TMB...WITH ALL
TERMINALS 20G30 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. WINDS AT APF WILL BE LIGHTER
WITH 5-10 KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND 12G20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.
70/DD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009/
.HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY...
.VERY HAZARDOUS AND ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING
THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE IMPACT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PENINSULA...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WL THE WINDS BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY? ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AD THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THEY MAY COME QUITE CLOSE TO 30 MPH
(SUSTAINED) WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG SOME EAST COAST LOCATIONS. IF
THIS HAPPENS, AN ADVISORY COULD POSSIBLY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY. A FEW
PATCHES OF CLOUDS/MOISTURE MAY BE ADVECTED OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY
THE STRONG EAST FLOW, SO WL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER ERN AREAS
WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WILL, AGAIN, DEPEND ON THE FINAL TRACK OF "IDA"
THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST HAS "IDA" MOVING
THROUGH THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MONDAY AND THEN N-NE TO A
POINT ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF TAMPA BY WEDNESDAY. GFS OUTPUT IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO THAT BUT HINTS AT A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO EXTRA-
TROPICAL OR HYBRID WITH THE AREA OF STRONG WX/WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. WE COULD SEE INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER S.
FLORIDA WHICH IN TURN COULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS THAN WHAT ARE
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WX TUE
THROUGH WED. THIS IS STILL FAR IN THE FUTURE, AND THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH, BOTH, "IDA`S" INTENSITY AND
FORECAST TRACK. SO WL KEEP POPS AS THEY ARE AND WAIT TO SEE FUTURE
TREND ON THIS SYSTEM.
MARINE...STRONG NE TO E WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. LIKEWISE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS
WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT. LATEST GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGEST HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MAYBE EVEN REACHING GALE
FORCE. A GALE FORCE WARNING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER
IF THE TREND IN THE MODELS CONTINUES, A WARNING MAY BE ISSUED
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...DEW POINT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO BE LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES NOT FALLING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. MIN RH COULD
FALL AS LOW AS UPPER LOW 40% IN MOST AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 75 82 78 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 77 83 80 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 82 75 84 78 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 85 68 88 70 / - - 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
GMZ676.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...57/DG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KKEY 070253
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
953 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
CMAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF HAVE BEEN STEADY NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20
AND 25 KNOTS ALL EVENING WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN SAND KEY...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY RECORDED GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND
35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE...FETCH LENGTH...AND DURATION OF THE
WINDS...AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE WINDS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM AT
CLOSE TO 180 DEGREES IN PLACES...SEAS OF 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IN FACT...IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND WEST
OF KEY WEST IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEAS MAY EVEN BE A FOOT OR TWO HIGHER
THAN THAT. THIS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY A SHIP REPORT 20 NM OFF THE
UPPER KEYS AT 00Z...WHICH REPORTED SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FEET WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...RUNNING FROM ABOUT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT ALL THE WAY TO THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF CUBA. INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS IN THE LINE ARE MOVING
ALONG AT AROUND 20 KNOTS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THIS IS SOMEWHAT
SURPRISING SINCE THE KEY WEST EVENING SOUNDING FOUND FAIRLY DRY AIR
IN THE LOWEST 100MB BELOW A SCATTERED LAYER OF CUMULUS...AND MORE DRY
AIR FROM 800-550MB. OVERALL...A STABLE SOUNDING. HOWEVER...THE
DYNAMICS ARE ENOUGH TO FORCE SHALLOW SHOWERS ALONG THESE WIND
CONVERGENCE LINES IN THE STRONG BREEZES.
.SHORT TERM...
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH TOMORROW. THE GFS SHOWS THE KEYS SITUATED
ALONG A MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER TO THE
SOUTH AND MUCH DRIER TO THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO NEAR 2 INCHES AS WINDS
THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEER SLOWLY TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY...ALLOWING
THE MOIST AIR TO THE SOUTH TO CREEP NORTHWARD. THE ZONE FORECASTS
SHOW AN INCREASING RAIN CHANCE...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE
EVENING UPDATE.
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VERY STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
KEYS WHILE LOWER PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
SURFACE TO 5000 FEET AGL. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND SURFACE
VISIBILITY IN ANY SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS WILL EXIST AT BOTH
TERMINALS AS SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 050 DEGREES BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CROSSWIND COMPONENT OF 15 KNOTS.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-
GMZ033-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........DEVANAS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......RIZZO
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 070248
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...THE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES
WITH EASTERLY WINDS STREAMING OVER THE LOCAL AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL
NIGHT TONIGHT AS THIS PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. THE TLH (AIRPORT) OBSERVATION
ALREADY INDICATED 46 DEGREES IN THE LATEST ROUNDUP AT 9 PM EST.
THE EVENING SOUNDING OUTPUT A .29 PWAT VALUE WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE WINDS UP TO 10 KFT. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER MAJOR UPDATES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND/OR CONTINUATION OF A PRESCRIBED BURN
IN THE VICINITY OF KTLH WE COULD SEE OCCASIONAL VIS RESTRICTIONS
FROM ANY LINGERING SMOKE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY MORNING AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND SURFACE HEATING LEADS TO
DEEPER MIXED LAYER. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GIBBS/BLOCK
000
FXUS62 KJAX 070239
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
938 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
...SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A RIDGE BACK ACRS
THE SERN U.S. THE SFC TO 700MB FLOW HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEW POINTS ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO NOT BE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT
WITH 40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE COAST. SOME SCT HI CLDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL STRATO-CU OFF THE ATLC ALONG THE NERN FL COAST BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. FOR SATURDAY
ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WITH COMFORTABLE MAX TEMPS IN THE
70S WITH ONSHORE FLOW BECOMING BREEZY ALONG THE COAST AND 10-15
MPH INLAND. SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY ESPECIALLY RIGHT ABOVE SURFACE SO FOG
NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...MODERATE NE FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OVER NE FL WATERS WHERE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS TIGHTER THAN GA WATERS. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 41 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 56 72 58 75 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 49 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 59 76 62 78 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 48 79 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 51 80 55 83 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FERNANDINA BEACH
TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
HESS/ZIBURA
000
FXUS62 KMLB 070127
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINA
STRETCHES WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
HIGH AND PRESENT NORTH SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WERE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH OVER LAND.
LATEST CAPE CANAVERAL UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH 8000 FEET. WINDS ALONG THE COAST DIMINISH AND LOSE THEIR
GUST FACTOR LATE EVENING. DEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVER OCEAN WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE COAST WELL INLAND OVERNIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE
COAST AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WELL INLAND. WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE RECORDING 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS
JUST OFF THE BEACH TO 6 AND 7 FEET FROM 20 MILES AND BEYOND. NOAA
BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 17 KNOTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT UP
AND DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.
THROUGH SAT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RATHER STEADY NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAINLY FOR SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.
SUN-WED...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BTW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND TC IDA EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL KEEP A FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS NEARSHORE TO 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL
REMAIN UP TO 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE SUN WITH THEN
SOME INCREASE IN SEAS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A LONGER
EASTERLY FETCH DEVELOPING. SCA CONTINUES THROUGH SUN BUT WILL
MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS IF NOT
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN GOING INTO
MID WEEK AS LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF IDA BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
WIMMER/CRISTALDI
000
FXUS62 KTBW 070106
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
805 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL KEEP BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE ALOFT STREAMS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DUE TO U/L TROUGHING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CURRENT ZONES
ARE ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATE PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE TAMPA BAY WATERS.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...TR
| 
