000
FXUS62 KCHS 222329
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
629 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPUR
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.
A LOBE OF VORTICITY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING
THE AREA. WEAK NVA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS CLEARING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. SOME
ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN SC MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE STREAMS OFF
THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER PRECIP SHOULD START TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE OVERNIGHT AS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING PUSHES NE OF THE AREA.
PRODIGIOUS CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW WHILE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH...WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES IN MOST AREAS WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE WELL
NE OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES /MID TO UPPER 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL ACT
TO REINFORCE THE EXISTING WEDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LOW CEILINGS MAY DROP TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST /SREF/ WHICH HAS RATHER HIGH PROBABILITIES OF LOW
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST HIGHS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY AS MODELS LIKELY DO
NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE
BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING/REDEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING FOR THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS...THE FORECAST REFLECTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY...ACROSS ALL COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION...THEN RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED AND/OR
EXPANDED ACROSS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE GRADUALLY BUILDS
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER ROUNDS
OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS REINFORCING COLD FRONTS
SHIFT THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS
INLAND...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BUT WILL ALSO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SC THIS EVENING WILL GENERATE AN HOUR OR
LESS OF MODERATE RAINS AT KCHS THROUGH 01Z...OTHERWISE THE STEADY
RAINS HAVE ENDED AT BOTH TERMINALS.

CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND WITH A LOWERING OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WE LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCHS
AND KSAV MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH 17Z WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT FOG. INVERSION LIFTS ENOUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WEATHER THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE EVENING SOUNDING ARE SHOWING 30 KT AT 1K FEET...AND
THUS WE HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT KSAV THROUGH 03Z WHERE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN AT KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS OFF OUR COAST. BRIEF NE WIND SURGE WILL PROBABLY TAKE
PLACE BEFORE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NE OF THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THE HARBOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADVISORY RUNNING
THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS FOR 6 FT SEAS.
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE AND GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL
KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BY LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

33

000
FXUS62 KCAE 222329
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING THEN REFORM OFF THE GA
COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO MILD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE CROSSING AL/GA
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER SRN GA WORKING ITS WAS INTO
WRN SC.


SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT LINGERING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDGE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WIND
AT THE SURFACE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION
WILL HOLD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS HIGH TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS
LIMITED, EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL.
MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT
LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA WELL AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 222329
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
629 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPUR
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.
A LOBE OF VORTICITY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING
THE AREA. WEAK NVA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS CLEARING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. SOME
ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN SC MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE STREAMS OFF
THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER PRECIP SHOULD START TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE OVERNIGHT AS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING PUSHES NE OF THE AREA.
PRODIGIOUS CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW WHILE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH...WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES IN MOST AREAS WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE WELL
NE OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES /MID TO UPPER 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL ACT
TO REINFORCE THE EXISTING WEDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LOW CEILINGS MAY DROP TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST /SREF/ WHICH HAS RATHER HIGH PROBABILITIES OF LOW
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST HIGHS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY AS MODELS LIKELY DO
NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE
BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING/REDEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING FOR THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS...THE FORECAST REFLECTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY...ACROSS ALL COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION...THEN RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED AND/OR
EXPANDED ACROSS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE GRADUALLY BUILDS
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER ROUNDS
OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS REINFORCING COLD FRONTS
SHIFT THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS
INLAND...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BUT WILL ALSO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SC THIS EVENING WILL GENERATE AN HOUR OR
LESS OF MODERATE RAINS AT KCHS THROUGH 01Z...OTHERWISE THE STEADY
RAINS HAVE ENDED AT BOTH TERMINALS.

CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND WITH A LOWERING OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WE LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KCHS
AND KSAV MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH 17Z WITH OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT FOG. INVERSION LIFTS ENOUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR WEATHER THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS FROM THE EVENING SOUNDING ARE SHOWING 30 KT AT 1K FEET...AND
THUS WE HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR AT KSAV THROUGH 03Z WHERE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN AT KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS OFF OUR COAST. BRIEF NE WIND SURGE WILL PROBABLY TAKE
PLACE BEFORE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NE OF THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THE HARBOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADVISORY RUNNING
THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS FOR 6 FT SEAS.
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE AND GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL
KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BY LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

33

000
FXUS62 KCAE 222329
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
629 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING THEN REFORM OFF THE GA
COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO MILD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE CROSSING AL/GA
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER SRN GA WORKING ITS WAS INTO
WRN SC.


SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT LINGERING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDGE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WIND
AT THE SURFACE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION
WILL HOLD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS HIGH TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS
LIMITED, EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL.
MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT
LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA WELL AFTER SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES UP THE ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 222232 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
531 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN STILL ABOUND BUT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE WITH PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE LIKELY BECOMING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS STILL VERY CLEAR THAT
SW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC WEDGE PATTERN TO PERSIST WELL AFTER DEPARTURE
OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT POPS AT MINIMUM OF 10 THROUGH
SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA AS DRIZZLE MAY BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO MEASURE IN A FEW GAGES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. THIS SW FLOW
ALOFT/SFC WEDGE PATTERN PATTERN WILL PROBABLY PERSIST INTO MID
WEEK BEFORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL CONUS AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER INITIALIZING
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND OF BIAS-ADJUSTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...MODERATED DIURNAL RANGES TO SHOW WARMER MIN TEMPS AND
COOLER MAX TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF LARGE UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MS VALLEY ON THURS MORNING THEN OVER THE
ERN CONUS ON FRI MORNING. STRONG DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IN THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
LATE THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
HAVE PUSHED TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH FOR FRIDAY. REST OF LONG TERM
PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS AND GEFS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT NOT SUPPORTED BY 12Z ECMWF.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE WEDGE AND STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. -RA/-DZ EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE BY
02Z...WITH SOME -DZ LINGERING OVERNIGHT. OVC IFR WILL DROP TO LIFR
BY 06Z...AND THEN TO VLIFR AROUND 10Z. IFR VSBY EXPECTED...WITH
TEMPO LIFR FOR 10-14Z. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED MON...WITH OVC
IFR THROUGH AFTERNOON...THEN LOW MVFR POSSIBLE BY 00Z. ENE WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CURRENT GUSTS ENDING AFTER 01Z.
13-15KTS BECOMING 11-13KTS OVERNIGHT...AND DROPPING TO 6-7KTS BY 12Z.

31/LEG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  52  45  58  47 /  70  20  10  10  20
ATLANTA         46  53  46  57  46 /  50  20  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     45  51  43  57  42 /  70  20  10  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  54  46  58  44 /  60  20  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        48  57  48  60  47 /  40  10  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     45  51  45  57  46 /  70  20  10  10  20
MACON           47  57  46  61  47 /  50  20  10  10  20
ROME            46  54  45  58  44 /  60  20  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  47  54  45  57  44 /  50  20  10  10  20
VIDALIA         48  57  48  63  51 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/31

000
FXUS62 KCHS 222122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
422 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW LIFTING UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SPUR
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC COAST TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL
LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.
A LOBE OF VORTICITY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING
THE AREA. WEAK NVA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS CLEARING
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. SOME
ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN SC MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE STREAMS OFF
THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER PRECIP SHOULD START TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO
NE OVERNIGHT AS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORCING PUSHES NE OF THE AREA.
PRODIGIOUS CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S COASTAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW WHILE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE COAST. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH...WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES IN MOST AREAS WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD BE WELL
NE OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. COLD ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES /MID TO UPPER 50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...THE RESULTING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL ACT
TO REINFORCE THE EXISTING WEDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXTEND
SOUTHWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. MODEL TIME/HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...LOW CEILINGS MAY DROP TO THE SURFACE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
FORECAST /SREF/ WHICH HAS RATHER HIGH PROBABILITIES OF LOW
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUE TO
FORECAST HIGHS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY AS MODELS LIKELY DO
NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE
BEGUN TO TREND TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTING/REDEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. ACCOUNTING FOR THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS...THE FORECAST REFLECTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY...ACROSS ALL COASTAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION...THEN RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED AND/OR
EXPANDED ACROSS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE GRADUALLY BUILDS
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER ROUNDS
OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS REINFORCING COLD FRONTS
SHIFT THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS
INLAND...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BUT WILL ALSO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADY RAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH KSAV THIS
EVENING...BUT WILL TAKE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AT KCHS BEFORE
TAPERING TO DRIZZLE. MVFR AND/OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IF WE ARE ABLE TO OBTAIN
ENOUGH OF A DOWNSLOPING NW WIND AT KSAV THERE MIGHT BE A SMALL
PERIOD OF VFR CIGS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THAT HOWEVER APPEARS UNLIKELY
AS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SHEAR IS OCCURRING AT
KSAV...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z BEFORE ENDING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS OFF OUR COAST. BRIEF NE WIND SURGE WILL PROBABLY TAKE
PLACE BEFORE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NE OF THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS AND THE HARBOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH AN ADVISORY RUNNING
THROUGH 11 AM MONDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS FOR 6 FT SEAS.
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
OFFSHORE AND GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL
KEEP A NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BY LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

JRL/JAQ

000
FXUS62 KFFC 222031
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
331 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN STILL ABOUND BUT EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NE WITH PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE LIKELY BECOMING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS STILL VERY CLEAR THAT
SW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC WEDGE PATTERN TO PERSIST WELL AFTER DEPARTURE
OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE. HAVE KEPT POPS AT MINIMUM OF 10 THROUGH
SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS ENTIRE AREA AS DRIZZLE MAY BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO MEASURE IN A FEW GAGES ON ANY GIVEN DAY. THIS SW FLOW
ALOFT/SFC WEDGE PATTERN PATTERN WILL PROBABLY PERSIST INTO MID
WEEK BEFORE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL CONUS AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER INITIALIZING
SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES WITH BLEND OF BIAS-ADJUSTED MAV/MET
GUIDANCE...MODERATED DIURNAL RANGES TO SHOW WARMER MIN TEMPS AND
COOLER MAX TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF LARGE UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE MS VALLEY ON THURS MORNING THEN OVER THE
ERN CONUS ON FRI MORNING. STRONG DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE IN THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
LATE THURSDAY RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS AND MOISTURE.
HAVE PUSHED TEMPS DOWN A TOUCH FOR FRIDAY. REST OF LONG TERM
PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND. 12Z GFS AND GEFS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY BUT NOT SUPPORTED BY 12Z ECMWF.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  52  45  58  47 /  70  20  10  10  20
ATLANTA         46  53  46  57  46 /  50  20  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     45  51  43  57  42 /  70  20  10  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  54  46  58  44 /  60  20  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        48  57  48  60  47 /  40  10  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     45  51  45  57  46 /  70  20  10  10  20
MACON           47  57  46  61  47 /  50  20  10  10  20
ROME            46  54  45  58  44 /  60  20  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  47  54  45  57  44 /  50  20  10  10  20
VIDALIA         48  57  48  63  51 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13

000
FXUS62 KCAE 222002
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
302 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING THEN REFORM OFF THE GA
COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF RETURN TO MILD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MOVES NORTH OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE CROSSING AL/GA
LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER SRN GA WORKING ITS WAS INTO
WRN SC.


SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT LINGERING DRIZZLE AND A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDGE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WIND
AT THE SURFACE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION
WILL HOLD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS HIGH TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A CLOSED LOW CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO DEEPEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. SINCE MOISTURE IS
LIMITED, EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL.
MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY MOVES OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
PRODUCE BANDS OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF GEORGIA. CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL GENERALLY START OUT VFR BUT CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO
MVFR AND VSBYS TO POSSIBLY IFR IN THE PERIODS OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT PLOTS INDICATE A GRADUAL SATURATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND AS COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TAKES SHAPE...EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS BY 03Z AND LIFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. VSBYS
WILL BE A BIT TOUGHER TO CALL DEPENDING ON HOW HEAVY DRIZZLE OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVERNIGHT...SO GENERALLY KEPT VSBYS IN THE
MVFR RANGE AT THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. LOW
CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...HC

000
FXUS62 KCHS 221755
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY
THEN RE-DEVELOP OVER OUR ADJACENT ATLC WATERS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON INTO TUE...AS HIGH
PRES REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. A
SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE W.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING ITS WHEELS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE LOW HAD PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA TOWARD THE SC MIDLANDS. THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...MAINLY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN GA. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ABOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE...A CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE THE
COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST STRENGTHEN WHICH SHOULD IN TURN
IMPROVE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THAT OCCURS WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN EAST OF I-95. WE PARED BACK POPS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE EXCEPT COASTAL CHARLESTON
COUNTY.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS VERY LOW BUT AN AREA OF
6-6.5C MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. TEMP FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS REMAINING
IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRES ALONG S ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL
WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER...THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE W WALL OF THE
GULF STREAM E OF CHARLESTON BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS A SOLID
WEDGE PATTERN GOING FOR OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL AND
FAIRLY STEADY. A PINCHED GRADIENT SUPPORTING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD RELAX LATE TONIGHT AS THE
EJECTING LOW BUCKLES THE WEDGE NW OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CHARLESTON...ST. GEORGE AND MONCKS CORNER MAY
SEE THEIR MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS BETWEEN DUSK AND MIDNIGHT AS THE
DYNAMICS TRAVERSE THE AREA. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE E
OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...MID
LEVEL DRYING STRIPS UPPER MOISTURE AND LEAVES SOUNDING PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTER RAINS AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE GEORGIA WHERE PRECIP MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE LATE. NEAR COASTAL
BREEZES SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS OUT OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE
IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MID-LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD
THE SOLUTION OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DETERIORATE TODAY DUE TO A SOLID DRY
SLOT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A HEAVIER BATCH OF
RAIN IS NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SHOULD SOON DROP
CEILINGS TO IFR AT KSAV. A FEW MORE HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY AT CHS BEFORE A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE TROUGH AND
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SW DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR. PREVAILING IFR
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT AS HIGH AT CHS TONIGHT DUE TO A DEEPER COOL
WEDGE AT THE SURFACE AND BETTER MOISTURE INLAND. HINTED AT SOME
LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT BUT MAINTAINED PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. WE IMPROVED CEILINGS TO MVFR AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AT SAV SINCE SOME DRIER AIR LOOKS TO SHIFT IN FROM
THE NW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
MON INTO TUE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WED THROUGH THU.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
DIGS IN FROM THE N AND PRES FALLS INCREASE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
AND N FLORIDA. WE HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY. A PINCHED GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY TILT NW INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 KT...LOCALLY
GUSTIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IN SE GEORGIA...WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KT AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER S
SUGGEST SEAS AT LEAST 4-6 FT TODAY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AS WELL AS THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ330-352-
     354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCAE 221742
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1242 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY THEN REFORM ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STRENGTHENS
AS IT RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FLUX AND WARM ADVECTION
ARE MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND RESULTING IN A BAND OF
RAIN EXTENDING FROM NORTH GEORGIA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SAVANNAH.
THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH TODAY WITH CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE AREA...WHICH
WILL ENHANCE A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE THAT IS
DEVELOPING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND AS THERE WILL
BE SOME DYNAMICS AVAILABLE AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT BUT A SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR INTRUSION IS WRAPPING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW AND PUSHING
ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BUT LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER
TIMING IN THE WARM ADVECTION BUT THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS NOT GOING TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SC
COAST. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN
DIMINISHING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTH AND WEST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. KEPT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEDGE POSSIBLY HOLDING AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTED BY MODEL T-SECTIONS. COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL,
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY IS REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SINCE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN (WHICH IS SLIGHT)
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DRY. SEASONABLY MILD MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE 40S MID-WEEK COOLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ALL THE TERMINALS AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
PRODUCE BANDS OF RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF GEORGIA. CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL GENERALLY START OUT VFR BUT CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO
MVFR AND VSBYS TO POSSIBLY IFR IN THE PERIODS OF RAIN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT PLOTS INDICATE A GRADUAL SATURATION OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AND AS COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE TAKES SHAPE...EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS BY 03Z AND LIFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. VSBYS
WILL BE A BIT TOUGHER TO CALL DEPENDING ON HOW HEAVY DRIZZLE OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVERNIGHT...SO GENERALLY KEPT VSBYS IN THE
MVFR RANGE AT THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. LOW
CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HC

000
FXUS62 KCHS 221529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY
THEN RE-DEVELOP OVER OUR ADJACENT ATLC WATERS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON INTO TUE...AS HIGH
PRES REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. A
SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE W.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING ITS WHEELS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE LOW HAD PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GA TOWARD THE SC MIDLANDS. THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...MAINLY WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN GA. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ABOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE...A CONSIDERABLE DRY SLOT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE THE
COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST STRENGTHEN WHICH SHOULD IN TURN
IMPROVE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS.
HOWEVER...UNTIL THAT OCCURS WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN EAST OF I-95. WE PARED BACK POPS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE EXCEPT COASTAL CHARLESTON
COUNTY.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS VERY LOW BUT AN AREA OF
6-6.5C MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. TEMP FORECAST STILL APPEARS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS REMAINING
IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRES ALONG S ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL
WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER...THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE W WALL OF THE
GULF STREAM E OF CHARLESTON BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS A SOLID
WEDGE PATTERN GOING FOR OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL AND
FAIRLY STEADY. A PINCHED GRADIENT SUPPORTING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD RELAX LATE TONIGHT AS THE
EJECTING LOW BUCKLES THE WEDGE NW OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CHARLESTON...ST. GEORGE AND MONCKS CORNER MAY
SEE THEIR MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS BETWEEN DUSK AND MIDNIGHT AS THE
DYNAMICS TRAVERSE THE AREA. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE E
OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...MID
LEVEL DRYING STRIPS UPPER MOISTURE AND LEAVES SOUNDING PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTER RAINS AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE GEORGIA WHERE PRECIP MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE LATE. NEAR COASTAL
BREEZES SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS OUT OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE
IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MID-LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD
THE SOLUTION OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON TAP TODAY...INITIALLY AT KSAV WHERE IFR
CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBYS IN MODERATE RAINS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING. AT KCHS...A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS MAY TAKE
AT BIT LONGER TO SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE CONTINUED THE
PREVIOUS TREND OF INTRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RAINS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER TO
DRIZZLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS AFTER
06Z/23. AT KSAV...MODELS ARE HITTING LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY
VSBYS 1/2 TO 1 MILE IN FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. KCHS SHOULD LOCK
IN WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
STAYING UP LONGER...VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS LOW AS KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MON INTO TUE.
VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WED THROUGH THU.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
DIGS IN FROM THE N AND PRES FALLS INCREASE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
AND N FLORIDA. WE HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY. A PINCHED GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY TILT NW INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 KT...LOCALLY
GUSTIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IN SE GEORGIA...WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KT AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER S
SUGGEST SEAS AT LEAST 4-6 FT TODAY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AS WELL AS THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ330-352-
     354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCAE 221501 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1001 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY THEN REFORM ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI
THIS MORNING WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STRENGTHENS
AS IT RIDGES DOWN THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FLUX AND WARM ADVECTION
ARE MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND RESULTING IN A BAND OF
RAIN EXTENDING FROM NORTH GEORGIA SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SAVANNAH.
THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SPREADING RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH TODAY WITH CONTINUED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE AREA...WHICH
WILL ENHANCE A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE THAT IS
DEVELOPING. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND AS THERE WILL
BE SOME DYNAMICS AVAILABLE AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT BUT A SIGNIFICANT
DRY AIR INTRUSION IS WRAPPING UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW AND PUSHING
ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AT THIS TIME AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BUT LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER AND DRIZZLE SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWER AS THE
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER
TIMING IN THE WARM ADVECTION BUT THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS NOT GOING TO BE VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE
FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SC
COAST. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN
DIMINISHING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTH AND WEST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. KEPT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEDGE POSSIBLY HOLDING AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTED BY MODEL T-SECTIONS. COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO WEDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL,
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY IS REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SINCE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN (WHICH IS SLIGHT)
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DRY. SEASONABLY MILD MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE 40S MID-WEEK COOLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN STRETCHING FROM ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA. THE
NORTHERN EDGE WAS ALONG THE CSRA THIS MORNING. AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES NE...EXPECT THE SHIELD OF PCPN TO
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17-18Z. TIME SECTIONS SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO MONDAY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BECOME IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS. EXPECT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY TO TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...THEN
REFORM ALONG THE NC/VA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEDGED IN ACRS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...HC

000
FXUS62 KCAE 221151
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY THEN REFORM ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE LOW AT 07Z OVER LOUISIANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
RADAR AT 07Z SHOWING RAIN MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EXTENDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS. COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPING. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 06Z
WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. CUT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DUE TO COOLER START TO THE DAY/WEDGE
SCHEME...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE. CATEGORICAL POPS
DEVELOPING FROM CSRA MID MORNING TO NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SC
COAST. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN
DIMINISHING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTH AND WEST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. KEPT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEDGE POSSIBLY HOLDING AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTED BY MODEL T-SECTIONS. COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO WEDGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL,
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY IS REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SINCE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN (WHICH IS SLIGHT)
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DRY. SEASONABLY MILD MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE 40S MID-WEEK COOLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE
RAIN STRETCHING FROM ALABAMA ACROSS GEORGIA. THE NORTHERN EDGE WAS
ALONG THE CSRA THIS MORNING. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY
MOVES NE...EXPECT THE SHIELD OF PCPN TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY ALL TAF SITES INDICATING
VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17-18Z.
TIME SECTIONS SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME IFR/LIFR THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS.
EXPECT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY TO TAPER OFF TO DRIZZLE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA...THEN
REFORM ALONG THE NC/VA COAST. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEDGED IN ACRS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 221136
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY
THEN RE-DEVELOP OVER OUR ADJACENT ATLC WATERS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON INTO TUE...AS HIGH
PRES REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. A
SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE W.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN E OF THE ROCKIES TO INITIALIZE THIS
MORNINGS PACKAGE. THE MAIN FEATURE WE ARE FOCUSED ON TODAY IS
THE LIFTING AND OPENING CUT-OFF MID LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PULLS
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY...INCREASING UPPER
DIFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA ENHANCING RAINFALL FROM SW TO NE WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...ALL OF OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A WEDGE
PATTERN WHICH WILL STAY LOCKED BY INCREASING RAINFALL AND VARIOUS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES. WE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES AND EXPECT ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 50S
TODAY. MANY AREAS ALONG TO THE W OF I-95 COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RAINS WITH A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE THROUGH
INLAND AREAS BY DAY/S END. ELEVATED THUNDER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLY
IN SE GEORGIA AND W OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
SUPPORTED BY GOOD LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB AND STRONG
QG-FORCING PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRES ALONG S ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL
WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER...THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE W WALL OF THE
GULF STREAM E OF CHARLESTON BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS A SOLID
WEDGE PATTERN GOING FOR OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL AND
FAIRLY STEADY. A PINCHED GRADIENT SUPPORTING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD RELAX LATE TONIGHT AS THE
EJECTING LOW BUCKLES THE WEDGE NW OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CHARLESTON...ST. GEORGE AND MONCKS CORNER MAY
SEE THEIR MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS BETWEEN DUSK AND MIDNIGHT AS THE
DYNAMICS TRAVERSE THE AREA. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE E
OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...MID
LEVEL DRYING STRIPS UPPER MOISTURE AND LEAVES SOUNDING PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTER RAINS AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE GEORGIA WHERE PRECIP MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE LATE. NEAR COASTAL
BREEZES SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS OUT OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE
IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MID-LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD
THE SOLUTION OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ON TAP TODAY...INITIALLY AT KSAV WHERE IFR
CIGS AND OCNL IFR VSBYS IN MODERATE RAINS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING. AT KCHS...A SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS MAY TAKE
AT BIT LONGER TO SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE CONTINUED THE
PREVIOUS TREND OF INTRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...RAINS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER TO
DRIZZLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS AFTER
06Z/23. AT KSAV...MODELS ARE HITTING LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY
VSBYS 1/2 TO 1 MILE IN FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. KCHS SHOULD LOCK
IN WITH CIGS AT OR BELOW 500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WITH WINDS
STAYING UP LONGER...VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS LOW AS KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MON INTO TUE.
VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WED THROUGH THU.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
DIGS IN FROM THE N AND PRES FALLS INCREASE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
AND N FLORIDA. WE HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY. A PINCHED GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY TILT NW INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 KT...LOCALLY
GUSTIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IN SE GEORGIA...WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KT AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER S
SUGGEST SEAS AT LEAST 4-6 FT TODAY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AS WELL AS THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND ARE BECOMING
MORE OF A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE MINOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATER THIS MORNING. IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WE
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TIDES NEARING 7 FT MLLW
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON FOR THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. CERTAINLY ANY RAINFALL
WOULD EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 221039
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN ANTICIPATED.
TWEAKING FIRST PERIOD TEMPERATURES BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL... AND
ARE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
MS/AL/GA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE
LONGWAVE FLOW MONDAY MORNING.  MODELS ARE ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AS FAR AS HANDLING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DISCREPANCIES CREEP IN
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ECMWF IS DEEPER AND A BIT FURTHER EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CANADIAN.  SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  GFS/NAM
INDICATE A MESOHIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY REINFORCING
THE DEVELOPING HYBRID DAMMING ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INITIAL SYSTEM...AS EASTERLY FLOW AND HYBRID WEDGE SETS UP
TODAY...COOL STABLE FLOW WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS AS
WELL SO NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ALL MODELS HOLD ON TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
E TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. HOW LONG THE CLOUDS LINGER WILL IMPACT AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH
LARGE DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN THE MAV/MET TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER
PERIODS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE...CSG HAS A
15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO ON TUESDAY. WILL START WITH A
MAV/MET BLEND AT THIS TIME AS GFS TENDS TO ERODE THE DAMMING TOO
QUICK. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOWING COOLER
EAST FLOW SETTING UP FASTER THAN IT CURRENTLY IS...THUS WILL GO
PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...ANTICIPATING THEM
TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY DROP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
FALLING THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE SPINNING IT
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE DROPPING OUT OF
CANADA WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB THE SECOND LOW
BY THURSDAY WHILE GFS ROTATES THE SECOND LOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS PUSH A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY...GFS IS DRIER THAN
ECMWF WHICH IS DRIER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.  BASED UPON THIS WILL
KEEP EXTENDED PERIODS DRY FOR NOW WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


AVIATION...
COOL WEDGE STRENGTHENING OVER GA THIS MORNING AS SHOWN BY INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR MS COAST MOVES EAST TODAY. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO IFR BY NOON WITH VISIBILITY GENERALLY 3 TO 5SM IN RAIN.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO MACON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 TO 15KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  43  54  44  63 /  80  50  20   5   5
ATLANTA         52  44  55  45  61 /  80  50  20   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     43  41  49  40  60 /  70  50  40   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  44  55  44  60 /  80  50  40   5   5
COLUMBUS        53  45  62  47  65 /  80  30   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     49  42  52  43  60 /  80  50  40   5   5
MACON           53  45  62  44  65 /  80  30   5   5   5
ROME            54  46  56  44  61 /  70  50  40   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  53  43  56  42  61 /  80  40  20   5   5
VIDALIA         53  45  66  45  66 /  80  60   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS62 KFFC 221020
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL... AND
ARE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
MS/AL/GA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE
LONGWAVE FLOW MONDAY MORNING.  MODELS ARE ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AS FAR AS HANDLING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DISCREPANCIES CREEP IN
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ECMWF IS DEEPER AND A BIT FURTHER EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CANADIAN.  SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  GFS/NAM
INDICATE A MESOHIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY REINFORCING
THE DEVELOPING HYBRID DAMMING ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INITIAL SYSTEM...AS EASTERLY FLOW AND HYBRID WEDGE SETS UP
TODAY...COOL STABLE FLOW WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS AS
WELL SO NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ALL MODELS HOLD ON TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
E TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. HOW LONG THE CLOUDS LINGER WILL IMPACT AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH
LARGE DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN THE MAV/MET TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER
PERIODS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE...CSG HAS A
15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO ON TUESDAY. WILL START WITH A
MAV/MET BLEND AT THIS TIME AS GFS TENDS TO ERODE THE DAMMING TOO
QUICK. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOWING COOLER
EAST FLOW SETTING UP FASTER THAN IT CURRENTLY IS...THUS WILL GO
PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...ANTICIPATING THEM
TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY DROP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
FALLING THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE SPINNING IT
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE DROPPING OUT OF
CANADA WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB THE SECOND LOW
BY THURSDAY WHILE GFS ROTATES THE SECOND LOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS PUSH A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY...GFS IS DRIER THAN
ECMWF WHICH IS DRIER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.  BASED UPON THIS WILL
KEEP EXTENDED PERIODS DRY FOR NOW WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
COOL WEDGE STRENGTHENING OVER GA THIS MORNING AS SHOWN BY INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR MS COAST MOVES EAST TODAY. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO IFR BY NOON WITH VISIBILITY GENERALLY 3 TO 5SM IN RAIN.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF COLUMBUS TO MACON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 20 TO 15KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  43  54  44  63 /  80  50  20   5   5
ATLANTA         52  44  55  45  61 /  80  50  20   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     49  41  49  40  60 /  70  50  40   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  44  55  44  60 /  80  50  40   5   5
COLUMBUS        54  45  62  47  65 /  80  30   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     49  42  52  43  60 /  80  50  40   5   5
MACON           53  45  62  44  65 /  80  30   5   5   5
ROME            54  46  56  44  61 /  70  50  40   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  53  43  56  42  61 /  80  40  20   5   5
VIDALIA         53  45  66  45  66 /  80  60   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

12/41

000
FXUS62 KCHS 220919
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
419 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY
THEN RE-DEVELOP OVER OUR ADJACENT ATLC WATERS TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL THEN LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON INTO TUE...AS HIGH
PRES REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. A
SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE W.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN E OF THE ROCKIES TO INITIALIZE THIS
MORNINGS PACKAGE. THE MAIN FEATURE WE ARE FOCUSED ON TODAY IS
THE LIFTING AND OPENING CUT-OFF MID LEVEL LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PULLS
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY...INCREASING UPPER
DIFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA ENHANCING RAINFALL FROM SW TO NE WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...ALL OF OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN A WEDGE
PATTERN WHICH WILL STAY LOCKED BY INCREASING RAINFALL AND VARIOUS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES. WE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES AND EXPECT ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL STAY IN THE 50S
TODAY. MANY AREAS ALONG TO THE W OF I-95 COULD SEE 1/2 TO 1 INCH
RAINS WITH A STRIPE OF HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE THROUGH
INLAND AREAS BY DAY/S END. ELEVATED THUNDER IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLY
IN SE GEORGIA AND W OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
SUPPORTED BY GOOD LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB AND STRONG
Q-FORCING PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRES ALONG S ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL
WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING...THEN REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER...THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE W WALL OF THE
GULF STREAM E OF CHARLESTON BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS KEEPS A SOLID
WEDGE PATTERN GOING FOR OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOL AND
FAIRLY STEADY. A PINCHED GRADIENT SUPPORTING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD RELAX LATE TONIGHT AS THE
EJECTING LOW BUCKLES THE WEDGE NW OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS CHARLESTON...ST. GEORGE AND MONCKS CORNER MAY
SEE THEIR MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS BETWEEN DUSK AND MIDNIGHT AS THE
DYNAMICS TRAVERSE THE AREA. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE E
OF I-95 IN SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...MID
LEVEL DRYING STRIPS UPPER MOISTURE AND LEAVES SOUNDING PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTER RAINS AND DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE GEORGIA WHERE PRECIP MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE LATE. NEAR COASTAL
BREEZES SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE LATE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY...BUT MODEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE VERY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS OUT OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION AND THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE
IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FOR THE MOST PART IN AGREEMENT FOR THE MID-LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE ECMWF WHICH CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY. GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TRENDING TOWARD
THE SOLUTION OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST RAIN FREE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH PRES WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...AND ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO BE FOUND IN PLACE. THUS WE
HAVE MAINTAINED VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...
SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAINS DEVELOPING
AROUND 15Z...AND ALSO FOR A LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO AROUND 5K
FEET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHORT WAVES ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A HEAVIER AND
STEADIER RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
WITH IT OUR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT 18Z AND TO IFR AT 21Z.
NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GUST OVER 15 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WE EXPECTED A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE FLOW GUSTING INTO THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE TOWARD THE END OF TAF CYCLE. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
INTO THE LATTER 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH RAINFALL ANTICIPATED
AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY NE SURFACE WINDS AT TIMES.

KSAV...THE HIGH PRES WEDGE AND ITS RESULTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHORT WAVE AND MORE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OF THE ISOBARS LATE TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT RAINS AND A
LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO OCCUR...FALLING TO MVFR AT 14Z. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND IFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FROM 18Z ONWARDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR
A LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AS SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO -1 OR -2 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACH 6C/KM. GIVEN THE WEDGE IN PLACE AND ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS TAPPED BY THE MODELS WE INCREASING NE SURFACE WINDS INTO
THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KT AT TIMES. AFTER DUSK...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO
LIGHTER RAINS AND DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WED THROUGH THU.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE WEDGE
DIGS IN FROM THE N AND PRES FALLS INCREASE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
AND N FLORIDA. WE HAVE RAISED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL
WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TODAY. A PINCHED GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY TILT NW INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...WITH NE WINDS BUILDING TO 20 TO 25 KT...LOCALLY
GUSTIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IN SE GEORGIA...WINDS REACHING NEAR
20 KT AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE AND POSSIBLY A BIT FURTHER S
SUGGEST SEAS AT LEAST 4-6 FT TODAY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AS WELL AS THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.

COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND ARE BECOMING
MORE OF A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE MINOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA LATER THIS MORNING. IF RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WE
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR TIDES NEARING 7 FT MLLW
IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON FOR THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. CERTAINLY ANY RAINFALL
WOULD EXACERBATE THE PROBLEM. WE HAVE HIGHLIGHTED POTENTIAL IN OUR HWO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

JRJ

000
FXUS62 KFFC 220756
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
256 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL... AND
ARE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
MS/AL/GA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE
LONGWAVE FLOW MONDAY MORNING.  MODELS ARE ALSO IN BETTER AGREEMENT
AS FAR AS HANDLING THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME DISCREPANCIES CREEP IN
BY MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ECMWF IS DEEPER AND A BIT FURTHER EAST
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CANADIAN.  SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
GULF COAST TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  GFS/NAM
INDICATE A MESOHIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY REINFORCING
THE DEVELOPING HYBRID DAMMING ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INITIAL SYSTEM...AS EASTERLY FLOW AND HYBRID WEDGE SETS UP
TODAY...COOL STABLE FLOW WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS AS
WELL SO NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ALL MODELS HOLD ON TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
WEDGE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
E TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. HOW LONG THE CLOUDS LINGER WILL IMPACT AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH
LARGE DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN THE MAV/MET TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER
PERIODS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE...CSG HAS A
15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO ON TUESDAY. WILL START WITH A
MAV/MET BLEND AT THIS TIME AS GFS TENDS TO ERODE THE DAMMING TOO
QUICK. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES. MODELS SHOWING COOLER
EAST FLOW SETTING UP FASTER THAN IT CURRENTLY IS...THUS WILL GO
PRETTY CLOSE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...ANTICIPATING THEM
TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR SLOWLY DROP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
FALLING THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE SPINNING IT
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A SECONDARY LOBE DROPPING OUT OF
CANADA WEDNESDAY.  ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB THE SECOND LOW
BY THURSDAY WHILE GFS ROTATES THE SECOND LOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS PUSH A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY...GFS IS DRIER THAN
ECMWF WHICH IS DRIER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.  BASED UPON THIS WILL
KEEP EXTENDED PERIODS DRY FOR NOW WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          50  43  54  44  63 /  80  50  20   5   5
ATLANTA         52  44  55  45  61 /  80  50  20   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     49  41  49  40  60 /  70  50  40   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    52  44  55  44  60 /  80  50  40   5   5
COLUMBUS        54  45  62  47  65 /  80  30   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     49  42  52  43  60 /  80  50  40   5   5
MACON           53  45  62  44  65 /  80  30   5   5   5
ROME            54  46  56  44  61 /  70  50  40   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  53  43  56  42  61 /  80  40  20   5   5
VIDALIA         53  45  66  45  66 /  80  60   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS62 KCAE 220725
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
225 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY THEN REFORM ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN
TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE LOW AT 07Z OVER LOUISIANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
RADAR AT 07Z SHOWING RAIN MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EXTENDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS. COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPING. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 06Z
WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. CUT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DUE TO COOLER START TO THE DAY/WEDGE
SCHEME...OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE. CATEGORICAL POPS
DEVELOPING FROM CSRA MID MORNING TO NORTHERN MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SC
COAST. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN
DIMINISHING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTH AND WEST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING. KEPT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH WEDGE POSSIBLY HOLDING AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTED BY MODEL T-SECTIONS. COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO WEDGE.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL,
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY IS REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SINCE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN (WHICH IS SLIGHT)
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DRY. SEASONABLY MILD MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE 40S MID-WEEK COOLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE TAF PERIOD WILL START OUT VFR
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 12Z-14Z WITH SOME SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE BY THEN. CONDITIONS BECOME IFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...

000
FXUS62 KCAE 220615
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN REFORM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW BEING SHOWN ON SATELLITE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LA. LOW LEVEL WEDGE FLOW FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION.  LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
GA HAVING HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO DRIER AIR TONIGHT. UPDATED
FORECAST TO HAVE DRY OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS...AND TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS FINALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF TEXAS TONIGHT WILL CROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SC COAST. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING. KEPT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

SINCE WEDGE PATTERN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS. KEPT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (WHICH MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE). LITTLE DIURNAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL,
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY IS REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SINCE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN (WHICH IS SLIGHT)
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DRY. SEASONABLY MILD MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE 40S MID-WEEK COOLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE TAF PERIOD WILL START OUT VFR
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 12Z-14Z WITH SOME SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE BY THEN. CONDITIONS BECOME IFR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE TUESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 220546
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1246 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A 1008 MB LOW IS FOUND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LA/MS...MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WHILE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE
AND IS WEDGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE WEDGE BECOMING
FURTHER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS RAINS START BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO
THE SOUTH AND SHORT WAVES MOVING NE FROM THE GULF. AS THE WEDGE
STRENGTHENS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WE LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN VERTICAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY FAR SOUTH...AS
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA LATE. GIVEN
THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS ALREADY A LITTLE FURTHER NE
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS...I FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD AT LEAST
SMALL POPS TO FAR SW ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BEGINNING AROUND 4 AM.

CLOUD COVER HAS DISPERSED A BIT SINCE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME
AREAS...AND HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO OUR EARLIER MIN
TEMP FORECAST. BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
JUST UPSTREAM...TEMP FALL WILL SLOW OR EVEN REVERSE OVERNIGHT. WE
WILL HOWEVER TWEAK TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MODERATE NE WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN OFF THE NC/SC COAST
SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE E.
MEANWHILE THE RESIDUAL GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE...ADVECTING QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST GA AND CENTRAL SC. RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. WE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A SLUG OF 6C
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO TREK THROUGH. COLD ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING VERY
MUCH AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ABOVE 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EJECTING WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST INTO MONDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
TO BECOME SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS THE
PARENT HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SOME CONSIDERATION NEEDS TO BE GIVEN TO
THE NAM WHICH SHOWS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE
SANTEE RIVER DECREASING TO ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. AS FOR MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE COULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERELY IMPACTED BY THE WEDGE...AND GUIDANCE APPEARS MUCH TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCENARIO...THEREFORE WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 TOWARD THE COAST ON MONDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IN PLACE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY MODERATE SOME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AND WELL BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH PRES WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...AND ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO BE FOUND IN PLACE. THUS WE
HAVE MAINTAINED VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...
SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAINS DEVELOPING
AROUND 15Z...AND ALSO FOR A LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO AROUND 5K
FEET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHORT WAVES ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A HEAVIER AND
STEADIER RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
WITH IT OUR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT 18Z AND TO IFR AT 21Z.
NE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GUST OVER 15 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WE EXPECTED A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE FLOW GUSTING INTO THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE TOWARD THE END OF TAF CYCLE. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
INTO THE LATTER 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH RAINFALL ANTICIPATED
AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY NE SURFACE WINDS AT TIMES.

KSAV...THE HIGH PRES WEDGE AND ITS RESULTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHORT WAVE AND MORE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OF THE ISOBARS LATE TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT RAINS AND A
LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO OCCUR...FALLING TO MVFR AT 14Z. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND IFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FROM 18Z ONWARDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR
A LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AS SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO -1 OR -2 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACH 6C/KM. GIVEN THE WEDGE IN PLACE AND ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS TAPPED BY THE MODELS WE INCREASING NE SURFACE WINDS INTO
THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KT AT TIMES. AFTER DUSK...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO
LIGHTER RAINS AND DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH...THAT 20 KT WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. EVEN CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL HAVE A SOLID
15 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COAST...AND UP TO 6 OR 7 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. THE
WATERS WILL BE QUITE AGITATED WITH THE NE OR NORTH WIND
WAVES...AND A 2-4 FOOT SWELL WAVE FROM THE EAST EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA/S FOR AMZ350-352-374...AND CAREFULLY KEEP
WATCH ON AMZ330-354 SHOULD THE PINCHING GET STRONGER AND INDUCE
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AS THE WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FROM THE NORTH WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. 20 OR 25 KT
WINDS WILL BE COMMON...WHILE SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS HIGH AS 5 TO
7 FEET. SCA/S MAY BE NEEDED FOR AMZ354 AND AMZ330...OTHERWISE
SOLID SCA WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND TRACKS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE
WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN OVER THE REMAINING SOUTH CAROLINA
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH SPEEDS 15
KT OR LESS. AN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 220342
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1042 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN REFORM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW BEING SHOWN ON SATELLITE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LA. LOW LEVEL WEDGE FLOW FROM THE NORTH CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION.  LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
GA HAVING HARD TIME ADVANCING INTO DRIER AIR TONIGHT. UPDATED
FORECAST TO HAVE DRY OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS...AND TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT
LOWS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS FINALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF TEXAS TONIGHT WILL CROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SC COAST. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING. KEPT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

SINCE WEDGE PATTERN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS. KEPT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (WHICH MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE). LITTLE DIURNAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL,
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY IS REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SINCE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN (WHICH IS SLIGHT)
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DRY. SEASONABLY MILD MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE 40S MID-WEEK COOLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE TAF PERIOD WILL START OUT VFR
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 12Z-14Z WITH SOME SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE BY THEN. CONDITIONS BECOME IFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 220210
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
910 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLDER HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A 1007 MB LOW IS FOUND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LA...MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD...WHILE 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE
AND IS WEDGING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE WEDGE BECOMING
FURTHER ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS RAINS START BREAKING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO
THE SOUTH AND SHORT WAVES MOVING NE FROM THE GULF. AS THE WEDGE
STRENGTHENS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WE LOOK FOR AN INCREASE
IN VERTICAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY FAR SOUTH...AS
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA LATE. GIVEN
THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS ALREADY A LITTLE FURTHER NE
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS...I FEEL COMPELLED TO ADD AT LEAST
SMALL POPS TO FAR SW ZONES LATE TONIGHT...BEGINNING AROUND 4 AM.

CLOUD COVER HAS DISPERSED A BIT SINCE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME
AREAS...AND HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO FALL CLOSE TO OUR EARLIER MIN
TEMP FORECAST. BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
JUST UPSTREAM...TEMP FALL WILL SLOW OR EVEN REVERSE OVERNIGHT. WE
WILL HOWEVER TWEAK TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS...BUT HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S
CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MODERATE NE WINDS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN OFF THE NC/SC COAST
SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE E.
MEANWHILE THE RESIDUAL GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE...ADVECTING QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST GA AND CENTRAL SC. RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. WE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A SLUG OF 6C
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO TREK THROUGH. COLD ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING VERY
MUCH AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ABOVE 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EJECTING WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST INTO MONDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
TO BECOME SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS THE
PARENT HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SOME CONSIDERATION NEEDS TO BE GIVEN TO
THE NAM WHICH SHOWS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE
SANTEE RIVER DECREASING TO ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. AS FOR MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE COULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERELY IMPACTED BY THE WEDGE...AND GUIDANCE APPEARS MUCH TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCENARIO...THEREFORE WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 TOWARD THE COAST ON MONDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IN PLACE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY MODERATE SOME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AND WELL BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO BE FOUND IN
PLACE. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAINS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z...AND ALSO FOR A LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO
AROUND 5K FEET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHORT WAVES ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A
HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WITH IT OUR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT 18Z
AND TO IFR AT 22Z. THE RISK OF WIND SHEAR IS MARGINAL BUT DOES
BEAR WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KSAV...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND ITS RESULTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHORT WAVE AND MORE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OF THE ISOBARS LATE TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT RAINS AND A
LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO OCCUR...FALLING TO MVFR AT 14Z. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND IFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FROM 18Z ONWARDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR
A LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AS SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO -1 OR -2 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACH 6C/KM. ALSO...THE RISK OF WIND SHEAR IS MARGINAL BUT
DOES BEAR WATCHING DURING SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TONIGHT BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH...THAT 20 KT WINDS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. EVEN CHARLESTON HARBOR WILL HAVE A SOLID
15 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR 6 FEET WITHIN 20 NM OF THE
COAST...AND UP TO 6 OR 7 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. THE
WATERS WILL BE QUITE AGITATED WITH THE NE OR NORTH WIND
WAVES...AND A 2-4 FOOT SWELL WAVE FROM THE EAST EVERY 8-9 SECONDS.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA/S FOR AMZ350-352-374...AND CAREFULLY KEEP
WATCH ON AMZ330-354 SHOULD THE PINCHING GET STRONGER AND INDUCE
HIGHER WINDS/SEAS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY AS THE WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FROM THE NORTH WHILE AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. 20 OR 25 KT
WINDS WILL BE COMMON...WHILE SEAS WILL BE AT LEAST AS HIGH AS 5 TO
7 FEET. SCA/S MAY BE NEEDED FOR AMZ354 AND AMZ330...OTHERWISE
SOLID SCA WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND TRACKS JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE
WATERS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN OVER THE REMAINING SOUTH CAROLINA
NEAR SHORE WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH SPEEDS 15
KT OR LESS. AN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

33

000
FXUS62 KFFC 220202 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
850 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH RESPECT TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVING ENE FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST. ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...TIMING AND MIN TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
QPF SHOULD STAY MOSTLY IN THE 1.0-1.5 INCH RAIN SUN...WHICH SHOULD
NOT CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOOD PROBLEMS. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA WITH COOL...STABLE WEDGE BOUNDARY HOLDING ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF CWA BORDER THROUGHOUT MOST OF EVENT. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN THE EXTENDED TO BETTER LINE UP WITH
NEIGHBORS AND LATEST ECMWF/GFS SHOWING THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE MINIMAL
WED-THU. ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD COLDER...DRIER PATTERN ADVERTISED
ALL ALONG THE BY THE GFS. GFS HINTING AT COLD ADVECTION SHRA
POSSIBLE NORTH AND ECMWF STILL HINTING AT POTENTIAL COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT...BUT PCPN WITH THIS REMAINING S-SE OF THE CWA THU. BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER PATTERN LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH DEEP TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE NE U.S....PUSHING THE
850MB 0C LINE WELL SOUTH INTO GA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

19
&&

.PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 545 PM EST...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SW
WITH MOST OF CENTRAL GA HAVING SEEN 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES. THIS IS
JUST THE INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY MORE FLOODING CONCERNS. THE MODELS SHOW
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LA GULF COAST DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS EAST
TONIGHT...HUGGING THE GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH TUE MORNING. BY THEN IT WILL HAVE PUSHED MOST OF ITS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO N GA
TONIGHT. THIS WEDGE SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE STATE FAIRLY
STABLE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW STRONG THIS WEDGE IS WE COULD SEE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
WEDGE BUILDING IN EXPECT TEMPS ACROSS NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA
TO STAY IN THE 50S ALL DAY SUN AND MOST OF MONDAY. HAVE GONE WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA MON. THIS WEDGE WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE MONDAY SO TEMPS MAY REBOUND SOME...MAINLY ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER A BIT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  GFS STRONGER WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...BUT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN MODEL IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AS FAR AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER
LOW...BUT TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF SURFACE ANALYSIS WHICH KEEPS THE
WEAK WEDGING AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EXITS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED PERIODS ARE
LOW BUT WILL BLEND THE MODELS HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

01
&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING OF CLOUDS...PRECIP...AND IFR CONDITIONS
NEXT 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH OF KATL STILL OBSERVED ON
RADAR...SFC PRECIP INTENSITY VERY LIGHT AND VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN SOLIDLY VFR. BASED ON SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE
MODEL PROGS...EXPECT THIS TREND OF VERY LIGHT AND WDLY SCT SHRA TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 12Z WHEN BULK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGGED TO
COMMENCE. PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW REACHING
KCSG AROUND 09Z...KATL AROUND 12Z AND KAHN AROUND 15Z. HAVE ALREADY
ADJUSTED KATL TAF WITH THIS TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITHIN AN
HOUR OF ONSET OF PRECIP AND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR DETERIORATE TO
LIFR DURING THE DAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MON EVEN AFTER
PRECIP PROGGED TO TAPER OFF. MDT SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT
8-13KTS THROUGH THE EVENT.


13
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  48  43  53  46 /  40  80  60  30  10
ATLANTA         47  52  44  55  48 /  60  80  40  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     39  49  45  50  42 /  30  70  50  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    45  53  45  52  46 /  50  80  50  20   5
COLUMBUS        52  58  50  62  49 / 100  80  30   5  10
GAINESVILLE     45  48  42  49  46 /  40  80  50  30   5
MACON           50  56  46  59  46 /  80  90  30  10  10
ROME            43  51  48  57  46 /  50  80  50  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  47  51  46  59  43 /  70  80  40  20   5
VIDALIA         49  57  46  63  48 /  60  90  50   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/13/19

000
FXUS62 KCHS 212336
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
OCCLUDE AND WEAKEN...ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE ENE
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR OUR WEATHER WILL BE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/SC COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS FROM THE SW THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE. WE CONTINUED
THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WITH POPS
BEGINNING AT 5 AM SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP NO LOWER THAN THE 50S
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND 3-5 KTS OF WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN OFF THE NC/SC COAST
SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE E.
MEANWHILE THE RESIDUAL GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE...ADVECTING QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST GA AND CENTRAL SC. RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. WE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A SLUG OF 6C
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO TREK THROUGH. COLD ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING VERY
MUCH AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ABOVE 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EJECTING WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST INTO MONDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
TO BECOME SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS THE
PARENT HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SOME CONSIDERATION NEEDS TO BE GIVEN TO
THE NAM WHICH SHOWS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE
SANTEE RIVER DECREASING TO ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. AS FOR MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE COULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERELY IMPACTED BY THE WEDGE...AND GUIDANCE APPEARS MUCH TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCENARIO...THEREFORE WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 TOWARD THE COAST ON MONDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IN PLACE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY MODERATE SOME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AND WELL BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE HOLDS IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AND ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO BE FOUND IN
PLACE. THUS WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE THROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK AND RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAINS
DEVELOPING AROUND 14Z...AND ALSO FOR A LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO
AROUND 5K FEET. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHORT WAVES ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A
HEAVIER AND STEADIER RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND WITH IT OUR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR AT 18Z
AND TO IFR AT 22Z. THE RISK OF WIND SHEAR IS MARGINAL BUT DOES
BEAR WATCHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KSAV...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND ITS RESULTING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
EARLY TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SHORT WAVE AND MORE CYCLONIC
CURVATURE OF THE ISOBARS LATE TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT RAINS AND A
LOWERING OF THE CIGS TO OCCUR...FALLING TO MVFR AT 14Z. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND IFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL FROM 18Z ONWARDS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCH FOR
A LITTLE ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AS SHOWALTER INDICES DROP TO -1 OR -2 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACH 6C/KM. ALSO...THE RISK OF WIND SHEAR IS MARGINAL BUT
DOES BEAR WATCHING DURING SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FROM THE NORTH
WHILE AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. 20-25 KT WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE 6 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO OUTER
PORTIONS OF THESE ZONES AS WELL. WE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO SOUTHWARD TO JOIN THE
EXISTING ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN LEG AND THE OFFSHORE GA LEG.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND TRACKS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN OVER THE REMAINING SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH SPEEDS 15 KT OR
LESS. AN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

33

000
FXUS62 KCAE 212317
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
617 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN REFORM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS WILL DE-AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM NORTH. SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLOUDY TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. RAIN SPREADING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES MAY REACH THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WENT
WITH CONSENSUS LOWS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS FINALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF TEXAS TONIGHT WILL CROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SC COAST. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING. KEPT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

SINCE WEDGE PATTERN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS. KEPT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (WHICH MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE). LITTLE DIURNAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL,
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY IS REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SINCE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN (WHICH IS SLIGHT)
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DRY. SEASONABLY MILD MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE 40S MID-WEEK COOLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES NORTHEAST. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE SE STATES ON SUNDAY BRINGING RAIN WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THE TAF PERIOD WILL START OUT VFR
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY AROUND 12Z-14Z WITH SOME SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE BY THEN. CONDITIONS BECOME IFR BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 212246 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SW
WITH MOST OF CENTRAL GA HAVING SEEN 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES. THIS IS
JUST THE INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY MORE FLOODING CONCERNS. THE MODELS SHOW
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LA GULF COAST DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS EAST
TONIGHT...HUGGING THE GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH TUE MORNING. BY THEN IT WILL HAVE PUSHED MOST OF ITS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO N GA
TONIGHT. THIS WEDGE SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE STATE FAIRLY
STABLE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW STRONG THIS WEDGE IS WE COULD SEE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
WEDGE BUILDING IN EXPECT TEMPS ACROSS NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA
TO STAY IN THE 50S ALL DAY SUN AND MOST OF MONDAY. HAVE GONE WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA MON. THIS WEDGE WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE MONDAY SO TEMPS MAY REBOUND SOME...MAINLY ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER A BIT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  GFS STRONGER WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...BUT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN MODEL IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AS FAR AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER
LOW...BUT TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF SURFACE ANALYSIS WHICH KEEPS THE
WEAK WEDGING AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EXITS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED PERIODS ARE
LOW BUT WILL BLEND THE MODELS HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS TIMING OF CLOUDS...PRECIP...AND IFR CONDITIONS
NEXT 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH OF KATL STILL OBSERVED ON
RADAR...SFC PRECIP INTENSITY VERY LIGHT AND VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
REMAIN SOLIDLY VFR. BASED ON SAT AND RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE
MODEL PROGS...EXPECT THIS TREND OF VERY LIGHT AND WDLY SCT SHRA TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 12Z WHEN BULK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PROGGED TO
COMMENCE. PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE SW REACHING
KCSG AROUND 09Z...KATL AROUND 12Z AND KAHN AROUND 15Z. HAVE ALREADY
ADJUSTED KATL TAF WITH THIS TIMING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITHIN AN
HOUR OF ONSET OF PRECIP AND SHOULD REMAIN STEADY OR DETERIORATE TO
LIFR DURING THE DAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MON EVEN AFTER
PRECIP PROGGED TO TAPER OFF. MDT SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT
8-13KTS THROUGH THE EVENT.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  48  43  53  46 /  40  80  60  30  10
ATLANTA         47  52  44  55  48 /  60  80  40  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     39  49  45  50  42 /  30  70  50  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    45  53  45  52  46 /  50  80  50  20   5
COLUMBUS        52  58  50  62  49 / 100  80  30   5  10
GAINESVILLE     45  48  42  49  46 /  40  80  50  30   5
MACON           50  56  46  59  46 /  80  90  30  10  10
ROME            43  51  48  57  46 /  50  80  50  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  47  51  46  59  43 /  70  80  40  20   5
VIDALIA         49  57  46  63  48 /  60  90  50   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01

000
FXUS62 KCHS 212056
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE INTO MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THURSDAY...THEN WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
OCCLUDE AND WEAKEN...ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE ENE
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR OUR WEATHER WILL BE SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/SC COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOSTLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS FROM THE SW THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE. WE CONTINUED
THE TREND OF A LATER ARRIVAL TIME FOR PRECIPITATION WITH POPS
BEGINNING AT 5 AM SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP NO LOWER THAN THE 50S
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND 3-5 KTS OF WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN OFF THE NC/SC COAST
SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE E.
MEANWHILE THE RESIDUAL GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE...ADVECTING QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST GA AND CENTRAL SC. RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. WE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A SLUG OF 6C
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO TREK THROUGH. COLD ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM INCREASING VERY
MUCH AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ABOVE 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EJECTING WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACKING IT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST INTO MONDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
TO BECOME SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS THE
PARENT HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...AND SOME CONSIDERATION NEEDS TO BE GIVEN TO
THE NAM WHICH SHOWS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE
SANTEE RIVER DECREASING TO ONLY A CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER SUNDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. AS FOR MONDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE WEDGE COULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
SEVERELY IMPACTED BY THE WEDGE...AND GUIDANCE APPEARS MUCH TOO WARM
GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCENARIO...THEREFORE WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 TOWARD THE COAST ON MONDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SHOULD PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY ERODING AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
IN PLACE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY MODERATE SOME...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL AND WELL BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY TONIGHT DUE
TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH PUSHING FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. WE SHOULD PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO WE INCLUDED -RA
STARTING AT 1330Z. CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. STARTED MVFR CEILINGS AT 08Z. RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 08Z WITH COVERAGE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK. BROUGHT IN PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEYOND 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS FROM THE NORTH
WHILE AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE. 20-25 KT WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE 6 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO OUTER
PORTIONS OF THESE ZONES AS WELL. WE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO SOUTHWARD TO JOIN THE
EXISTING ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN LEG AND THE OFFSHORE GA LEG.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND TRACKS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE WATERS
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN OVER THE REMAINING SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SHORE
WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH SPEEDS 15 KT OR
LESS. AN STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

JRL/JAQ

000
FXUS62 KFFC 212036
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
336 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SW
WITH MOST OF CENTRAL GA HAVING SEEN 0.01 TO 0.03 INCHES. THIS IS
JUST THE INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER 1 TO 1.5
INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY MORE FLOODING CONCERNS. THE MODELS SHOW
THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LA GULF COAST DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS EAST
TONIGHT...HUGGING THE GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH TUE MORNING. BY THEN IT WILL HAVE PUSHED MOST OF ITS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND UP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL PUSH DOWN INTO N GA
TONIGHT. THIS WEDGE SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE STATE FAIRLY
STABLE SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. DEPENDING ON JUST HOW STRONG THIS WEDGE IS WE COULD SEE
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
WEDGE BUILDING IN EXPECT TEMPS ACROSS NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GA
TO STAY IN THE 50S ALL DAY SUN AND MOST OF MONDAY. HAVE GONE WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA MON. THIS WEDGE WILL
BEGIN TO ERODE MONDAY SO TEMPS MAY REBOUND SOME...MAINLY ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER A BIT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  GFS STRONGER WITH
THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...BUT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. ECMWF ALSO SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN MODEL IS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AS FAR AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER
LOW...BUT TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF SURFACE ANALYSIS WHICH KEEPS THE
WEAK WEDGING AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EXITS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED PERIODS ARE
LOW BUT WILL BLEND THE MODELS HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          46  48  43  53  46 /  40  80  60  30  10
ATLANTA         47  52  44  55  48 /  60  80  40  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     39  49  45  50  42 /  30  70  50  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    45  53  45  52  46 /  50  80  50  20   5
COLUMBUS        52  58  50  62  49 / 100  80  30   5  10
GAINESVILLE     45  48  42  49  46 /  40  80  50  30   5
MACON           50  56  46  59  46 /  80  90  30  10  10
ROME            43  51  48  57  46 /  50  80  50  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  47  51  46  59  43 /  70  80  40  20   5
VIDALIA         49  57  46  63  48 /  60  90  50   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01

000
FXUS62 KCAE 211951
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN REFORM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE
INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING CLOUDS
AND RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS WILL DE-AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST. SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM NORTH. SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLOUDY TONIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. RAIN SPREADING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES MAY REACH THE SAVANNAH RIVER AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WENT
WITH CONSENSUS LOWS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS FINALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF TEXAS TONIGHT WILL CROSS GA INTO THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON AN INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE SC COAST. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO AROUND ONE INCH.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING. KEPT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.

SINCE WEDGE PATTERN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS. KEPT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S (WHICH MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE). LITTLE DIURNAL
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALL IN ALL,
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY
TUESDAY IS REPLACED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SINCE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY CHANCE FOR RAIN (WHICH IS SLIGHT)
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST
DRY. SEASONABLY MILD MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE 40S MID-WEEK COOLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING THE
PROGRESS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS. LOOKS LIKE MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE DELAYED TO
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED THE LOWERING
OF THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THEN NORTHEAST UP THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD SPREADING LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LM
NEAR TERM...LM
SHORT TERM...LM
LONG TERM...LM
AVIATION...GL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 211751
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLC OFF
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AS HIGH PRES HOLDS
IN PLACE INLAND. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE DOMINANT FROM
MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SW TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE THE LOW STRATUS
FROM THIS MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY BURN OFF...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR PRECIP EXCEPT JUST
OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL TROUGH. ONGOING FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S LOOKED GOOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SO WE MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAY/S GRAPHICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM SE TEXAS TODAY
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY 12Z ON SUNDAY. DYNAMIC
INFLUENCES WILL GUIDE SIGNIFICANT RAINS INTO WESTERN AND N GEORGIA
BY DAWN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS NOW A FASTER OUTLIER
IN SPREADING RAINS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OFF THE COAST AND
DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE AND UPPER FORCING WILL LIKELY INCITE
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT SW OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
THE APPROACHING DYNAMICS AND THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND WE
TRIMMED POPS BACK TO A LOW END CHANCE LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND
A LIGHT/STEADY NE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE CSRA AND
MIDLANDS WHERE THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DROPS BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAKENING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACKING ACROSS THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...HELPING TO RE-ENFORCE THE EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN REMAIN SPLIT ON DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOWING LITTLE PHASING. AS A
RESULT...THESE MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ON THE OTHER-HAND...THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS DEPICT THE TWO STREAMS PHASING...WHICH
RESULTS IN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
THEN COMES INTO AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICT SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF FORCING MOVING OVERHEAD...CAN/T RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION...SO WILL CARRY THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS RE-ENFORCED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL TIME HEIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS AND MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY OVERCAST CONDITIONS
AND SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SPLIT ON EVENTUAL PATTERN EVOLUTION. FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
WHICH MAINTAINS GOOD FORECAST CONTINUITY AND AWAIT BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY SWEEPING CHANGES. THIS RESULTS...IN A
RAIN FREE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...CEILING/VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOT LOOKING AS LIKELY TONIGHT DUE
TO THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH PUSHING FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. WE SHOULD PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SO WE INCLUDED -RA
STARTING AT 1330Z. CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. STARTED MVFR CEILINGS AT 08Z. RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AFTER 08Z WITH COVERAGE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK. BROUGHT IN PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEYOND 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WAS PINCHING PRE-DAWN FROM AROUND BUOY 41004 UP
TO THE BUOY 41013. NNE FLOW AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KT OVER OUR WATERS
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT COASTWARD FROM GRAYS REEF WHERE SPEEDS WERE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN A WEAKER GRADIENT. SEAS WERE ELEVATED BEYOND 40
NM OFF THE COAST ACCORDING TO STEADY WAVEWATCH OUTPUT AND FETCH
LENGTH AND PERSISTENCE PROGS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER OUR OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. THE COASTAL CAROLINAS PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT AND WITH STEADY NE FLOW...IT APPEARS SEAS WILL BUILD INTO
SCA RANGE OFF AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS COULD BE UNDERDONE WITH THE PINCHING AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
MAY TURN OUT SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC. OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL REMAIN
IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCAE 211728
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1228 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SPREAD
RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE AWAY MONDAY AND THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DECREASE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND AWAY MONDAY DECREASE THE
CHANCES OF RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
AND MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND
ONE INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG RANGE MODELS BRINGING LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN BACK TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AS A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE THE AREA COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COOL TO NEAR 60 THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S START OF PERIOD
LOWER TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SLOWING THE
PROGRESS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS. LOOKS LIKE MVFR TO IFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE DELAYED TO
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...SLOWED THE LOWERING
OF THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THEN NORTHEAST UP THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD SPREADING LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCHS 211506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1006 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLC OFF
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AS HIGH PRES HOLDS
IN PLACE INLAND. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE DOMINANT FROM
MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SW TODAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE THE LOW STRATUS
FROM THIS MORNING SHOULD SLOWLY BURN OFF...BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL PROBABLY INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR PRECIP EXCEPT JUST
OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD
DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL TROUGH. ONGOING FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S LOOKED GOOD BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SO WE MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAY/S GRAPHICS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM SE TEXAS TODAY
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY 12Z ON SUNDAY. DYNAMIC
INFLUENCES WILL GUIDE SIGNIFICANT RAINS INTO WESTERN AND N GEORGIA
BY DAWN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS NOW A FASTER OUTLIER
IN SPREADING RAINS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OFF THE COAST AND
DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE AND UPPER FORCING WILL LIKELY INCITE
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT SW OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
THE APPROACHING DYNAMICS AND THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND WE
TRIMMED POPS BACK TO A LOW END CHANCE LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND
A LIGHT/STEADY NE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE CSRA AND
MIDLANDS WHERE THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DROPS BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAKENING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACKING ACROSS THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...HELPING TO RE-ENFORCE THE EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN REMAIN SPLIT ON DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOWING LITTLE PHASING. AS A
RESULT...THESE MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ON THE OTHER-HAND...THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS DEPICT THE TWO STREAMS PHASING...WHICH
RESULTS IN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
THEN COMES INTO AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICT SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF FORCING MOVING OVERHEAD...CAN/T RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION...SO WILL CARRY THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS RE-ENFORCED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL TIME HEIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS AND MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY OVERCAST CONDITIONS
AND SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SPLIT ON EVENTUAL PATTERN EVOLUTION. FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
WHICH MAINTAINS GOOD FORECAST CONTINUITY AND AWAIT BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY SWEEPING CHANGES. THIS RESULTS...IN A
RAIN FREE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...LIFR CIGS EXPANDED OVERNIGHT AND BLANKET THE CHARLESTON
AREA AT DAWN ALONG WITH VSBY IN THE 1-3NM RANGE JUST UNDER 100
FT CIGS. THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 06Z WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISPERSE AGAIN THIS
MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS LIKELY OUT OF THE PICTURE
AND ONLY A MIX OF LAYERED CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
TONIGHT...INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT STRONGER
TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS POSSIBLE.

KSAV...STRATUS SHIELD HAS ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN BEAUFORT AND
JASPER COUNTIES AND APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
THAN YESTERDAY MORNING TO REACH THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT. CLOUD
PATTERN TRENDS HAVE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE PAST HOUR
AS HIGH CLOUDS BLOCK THE VSBL PROGRESS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATION CARRYING A FEW
STRATUS...WE CARRIED A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO OF IFR CIGS AT KSAV TO
BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STEADY NE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ON TAP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WAS PINCHING PRE-DAWN FROM AROUND BUOY 41004 UP
TO THE BUOY 41013. NNE FLOW AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KT OVER OUR WATERS
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT COASTWARD FROM GRAYS REEF WHERE SPEEDS WERE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN A WEAKER GRADIENT. SEAS WERE ELEVATED BEYOND 40
NM OFF THE COAST ACCORDING TO STEADY WAVEWATCH OUTPUT AND FETCH
LENGTH AND PERSISTENCE PROGS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER OUR OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. THE COASTAL CAROLINAS PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT AND WITH STEADY NE FLOW...IT APPEARS SEAS WILL BUILD INTO
SCA RANGE OFF AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS COULD BE UNDERDONE WITH THE PINCHING AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
MAY TURN OUT SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC. OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL REMAIN
IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

JRL

000
FXUS62 KCHS 211156
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLC OFF
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AS HIGH PRES HOLDS
IN PLACE INLAND. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE DOMINANT FROM
MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS OVER THE ATLC WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE TRANSLATING SSW THROUGH OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. WE UPDATED OUR FORECAST A SHORT
WHILE AGO TO INCLUDE SOME AREAS OF FOG TO THE E OF I-95...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA. THERE IS STILL A WEAK BAROCLINIC
REGION OVER THE GULF STREAM AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE SUGGESTS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN E
OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BRUSH
COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY AT SOME POINT TODAY...OTHERWISE WE
MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST WITH A FLAVOR FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OR
JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES...WE TRENDED A BIT
COOLER TODAY WITH 00Z GUIDANCE 3 HOUR NUMBERS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS ON ALL MODELS. OVERALL HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S
WITH SOME NEAR 70 READINGS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF INLAND SE GEORGIA
CLOSER TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM SE TEXAS TODAY
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY 12Z ON SUNDAY. DYNAMIC
INFLUENCES WILL GUIDE SIGNIFICANT RAINS INTO WESTERN AND N GEORGIA
BY DAWN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS NOW A FASTER OUTLIER
IN SPREADING RAINS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OFF THE COAST AND
DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE AND UPPER FORCING WILL LIKELY INCITE
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT SW OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
THE APPROACHING DYNAMICS AND THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND WE
TRIMMED POPS BACK TO A LOW END CHANCE LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND
A LIGHT/STEADY NE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE CSRA AND
MIDLANDS WHERE THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DROPS BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAKENING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACKING ACROSS THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...HELPING TO RE-ENFORCE THE EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN REMAIN SPLIT ON DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOWING LITTLE PHASING. AS A
RESULT...THESE MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ON THE OTHER-HAND...THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS DEPICT THE TWO STREAMS PHASING...WHICH
RESULTS IN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
THEN COMES INTO AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICT SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF FORCING MOVING OVERHEAD...CAN/T RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION...SO WILL CARRY THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS RE-ENFORCED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL TIME HEIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS AND MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY OVERCAST CONDITIONS
AND SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SPLIT ON EVENTUAL PATTERN EVOLUTION. FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
WHICH MAINTAINS GOOD FORECAST CONTINUITY AND AWAIT BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY SWEEPING CHANGES. THIS RESULTS...IN A
RAIN FREE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...LIFR CIGS EXPANDED OVERNIGHT AND BLANKET THE CHARLESTON
AREA AT DAWN ALONG WITH VSBY IN THE 1-3NM RANGE JUST UNDER 100
FT CIGS. THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE AND 06Z WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DISPERSE AGAIN THIS
MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW CLOUDS LIKELY OUT OF THE PICTURE
AND ONLY A MIX OF LAYERED CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.
TONIGHT...INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT STRONGER
TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS POSSIBLE.

KSAV...STRATUS SHIELD HAS ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN BEAUFORT AND
JASPER COUNTIES AND APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
THAN YESTERDAY MORNING TO REACH THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT. CLOUD
PATTERN TRENDS HAVE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE PAST HOUR
AS HIGH CLOUDS BLOCK THE VSBL PROGRESS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATION CARRYING A FEW
STRATUS...WE CARRIED A COUPLE HOUR TEMPO OF IFR CIGS AT KSAV TO
BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A STEADY NE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ON TAP.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WAS PINCHING PRE-DAWN FROM AROUND BUOY 41004 UP
TO THE BUOY 41013. NNE FLOW AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KT OVER OUR WATERS
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT COASTWARD FROM GRAYS REEF WHERE SPEEDS WERE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN A WEAKER GRADIENT. SEAS WERE ELEVATED BEYOND 40
NM OFF THE COAST ACCORDING TO STEADY WAVEWATCH OUTPUT AND FETCH
LENGTH AND PERSISTENCE PROGS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER OUR OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. THE COASTAL CAROLINAS PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT AND WITH STEADY NE FLOW...IT APPEARS SEAS WILL BUILD INTO
SCA RANGE OFF AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS COULD BE UNDERDONE WITH THE PINCHING AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
MAY TURN OUT SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC. OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL REMAIN
IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON STILL RUNNING OVER 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS. WE ARE WATCHING THE HIGH TIDE FOR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST IT WILL FALL SHY OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT NOT BY MUCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 211144
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
644 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SPREAD
RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE AWAY MONDAY AND THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DECREASE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND AWAY MONDAY DECREASE THE
CHANCES OF RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
AND MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND
ONE INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG RANGE MODELS BRINGING LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN BACK TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AS A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE THE AREA COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COOL TO NEAR 60 THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S START OF PERIOD
LOWER TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING GULF LOW THIS MORNING. THIS HAS INHIBITED MUCH OF
THE FOG FORMATION WITH MOST SITES REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. BOTH NAM/GFS LOOK TO HOLD OFF ANY
PCPN...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE CSRA UNTIL ARND/JUST AFTER 12. FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN IN FORECASTS.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 211027
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
520 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING OUT OF TEXAS. GFS IS FASTER LIFTING THE
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH NAM CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT
EXITS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CROSSING THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM DEVELOP A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH...
ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST TEXAS COAST...AND
THEN TRACKS EAST...HUGGING THE GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY. AGAIN
NAM/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND BOTH DEPICT STRONGER COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO AUGUSTA LINE.
BASED UPON THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST WITH HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GFS/NAM ARE
FURTHER NORTH WHEN DEPICTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL... ALONG A
COLUMBUS TO ATHENS LINE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. NAM/ECMWF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE
WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE LATEST HPC QPF GUIDANCE. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE INDICATE 6 HOUR TOTALS OF 3 TO 4.7 INCH TOTALS AND A
FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT I WILL CONTINUE SPSFFC.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AS HIGH CLOUDS
START TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 60S.  BETTER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AS MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS WEDGING BEGINS TO ERODE ON MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME...MAINLY ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE DAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE THERE DIFFERENCES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.  GFS STRONGER WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ECMWF.  ECMWF ALSO SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. CANADIAN MODEL IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AS FAR
AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF
SURFACE ANALYSIS WHICH KEEPS THE WEAK WEDGING AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED PERIODS ARE LOW BUT WILL
BLEND THE MODELS HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS TODAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW DEVELOPING
VICINITY OF  TEXAS COAST. CEILINGS LOWERING BELOW 3 THSD FT AFTER
00Z SUNDAY AND BECOMING IFR AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. RAIN BEGINNING AFTER
00Z AND SPREADING ACROSS GA DURING THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
EAST NEAR THE GULF COAST. SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS TO MACON. VISIBILITY TODAY UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT LOCALLY 3 TO
5SM IN FOG UNTIL 14Z. WINDS NORTHEAST INCREASING TO 10 TO 15KT AFTER
14Z.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  46  46  43  57 /   5  70  90  60  40
ATLANTA         64  48  49  44  56 /   5  70  80  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     60  43  46  43  54 /   0  50  70  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    63  45  50  44  57 /   5  70  80  30  20
COLUMBUS        67  52  57  47  57 /  10 100  90  40  20
GAINESVILLE     63  46  46  44  55 /   5  70  80  40  40
MACON           65  51  56  46  60 /   5 100 100  70  20
ROME            64  46  50  45  57 /   5  70  80  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  47  51  45  56 /   5  80  80  60  20
VIDALIA         66  52  58  47  61 /   0  70 100  60  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210901
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
401 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SPREAD
RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE AWAY MONDAY AND THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DECREASE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN OVER
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND AWAY MONDAY DECREASE THE
CHANCES OF RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD BE GONE LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S
AND MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND
ONE INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG RANGE MODELS BRINGING LONG WAVE TROUGH
PATTERN BACK TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE SURFACE AS A COUPLE OF DRY COLD FRONTS SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE THE AREA COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COOL TO NEAR 60 THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S START OF PERIOD
LOWER TO THE 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S AT CAE...CUB AND AGS. TEMPS NEAR 50
AT OGB AND MID 50S DNL. HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
GULF LOW MAY INHIBIT RADIATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STILL
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY
DURING THE 09Z TO 14Z PERIOD WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPO IFR. DNL MAY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIGHT WIND AND
MIXING WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.


CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ALL SITES AFTER 14Z WITH ONLY
THICKENING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR NOW
EXPECT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE AFTER 210600. THE FIRST
SITES TO BE AFFECTED BY RAIN WOULD BE AGS AND DNL.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...77

000
FXUS62 KCHS 210856
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE ATLC OFF
THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AS HIGH PRES HOLDS
IN PLACE INLAND. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE DOMINANT FROM
MID-LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ATLC WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WERE TRANSLATING WSW INTO OUR COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES
PER LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. THERE IS STILL A WEAK BAROCLINIC REGION
OVER THE GULF STREAM AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
SUGGESTS WEAK SURFACE LOW PRES AND CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN E OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BRUSH COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY AT SOME POINT TODAY...OTHERWISE WE MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST WITH A FLAVOR FOR INCREASING CLOUDS OR JUST MOSTLY
CLOUDY MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES...WE TRENDED A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH
00Z GUIDANCE 3 HOUR NUMBERS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS ON ALL
MODELS. OVERALL HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S WITH SOME NEAR
70 READINGS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF INLAND SE GEORGIA CLOSER TO THE
ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM SE TEXAS TODAY
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY 12Z ON SUNDAY. DYNAMIC
INFLUENCES WILL GUIDE SIGNIFICANT RAINS INTO WESTERN AND N GEORGIA
BY DAWN WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS NOW A FASTER OUTLIER
IN SPREADING RAINS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY PERSIST OFF THE COAST AND
DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE AND UPPER FORCING WILL LIKELY INCITE
RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT SW OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHORTLY BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN
THE APPROACHING DYNAMICS AND THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE AND WE
TRIMMED POPS BACK TO A LOW END CHANCE LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND
A LIGHT/STEADY NE FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 50S COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE CSRA AND
MIDLANDS WHERE THE SURFACE WEDGE WILL BE ENTRENCHED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN DROPS BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A WEAKENING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY AND
TRACKING ACROSS THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...HELPING TO RE-ENFORCE THE EXISTING HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN REMAIN SPLIT ON DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE
GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOWING LITTLE PHASING. AS A
RESULT...THESE MODELS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ON THE OTHER-HAND...THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS DEPICT THE TWO STREAMS PHASING...WHICH
RESULTS IN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
THEN COMES INTO AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS GOOD FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICT SOME DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.5 C/KM
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF FORCING MOVING OVERHEAD...CAN/T RULE OUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION...SO WILL CARRY THUNDER MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IS RE-ENFORCED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS THE SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL TIME HEIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
THAT THE 1000-850 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS AND MENTION OF
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MOS
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AS LIGHT WIND FIELDS COMBINED
WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE SHOULD LEAD TO PRIMARILY OVERCAST CONDITIONS
AND SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SPLIT ON EVENTUAL PATTERN EVOLUTION. FOR NOW
WILL STICK WITH A SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
WHICH MAINTAINS GOOD FORECAST CONTINUITY AND AWAIT BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY SWEEPING CHANGES. THIS RESULTS...IN A
RAIN FREE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS LATER
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED QUICKLY OVER THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND WITH TIME. WE HAVE RECENTLY
AMENDED THE TAF TO TEMPO IFR CIGS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING TO MAKE THE STRATUS PREVAILING. GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS...IT MAY BE SLOWER TO REACH VFR LATER THIS MORNING
AND WE WILL RE-EVALUATE ON THE 12Z RELEASE.

KSAV...MVFR VSBYS IN FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND WE HAVE
MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION BUT MODELS INDICATE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE N AND S OF THE TERMINAL. VFR LIKELY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUE. VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRADIENT WAS PINCHING PRE-DAWN FROM AROUND BUOY 41004 UP
TO THE BUOY 41013. NNE FLOW AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KT OVER OUR WATERS
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT COASTWARD FROM GRAYS REEF WHERE SPEEDS WERE
FAIRLY LIGHT IN A WEAKER GRADIENT. SEAS WERE ELEVATED BEYOND 40
NM OFF THE COAST ACCORDING TO STEADY WAVEWATCH OUTPUT AND FETCH
LENGTH AND PERSISTENCE PROGS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER OUR OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. THE COASTAL CAROLINAS PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TONIGHT AND WITH STEADY NE FLOW...IT APPEARS SEAS WILL BUILD INTO
SCA RANGE OFF AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MODELS COULD BE UNDERDONE WITH THE PINCHING AND FORECAST CONDITIONS
MAY TURN OUT SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC. OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL REMAIN
IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
MONDAY...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON STILL RUNNING OVER 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS. WE ARE WATCHING THE HIGH TIDE FOR LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST IT WILL FALL SHY OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT NOT BY MUCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

JRJ

000
FXUS62 KFFC 210813
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW SWINGING OUT OF TEXAS. GFS IS FASTER LIFTING THE
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH NAM CLOSER
TO THE SLOWER ECMWF. THE SHORT WAVE BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM DEEPENS AS IT
EXITS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CROSSING THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS/NAM DEVELOP A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH...
ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST TEXAS COAST...AND
THEN TRACKS EAST...HUGGING THE GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY. AGAIN
NAM/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND BOTH DEPICT STRONGER COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO AUGUSTA LINE.
BASED UPON THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST WITH HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. GFS/NAM ARE
FURTHER NORTH WHEN DEPICTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL... ALONG A
COLUMBUS TO ATHENS LINE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF MACON. NAM/ECMWF NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 1-2" RANGE
WHICH MATCHES UP WITH THE LATEST HPC QPF GUIDANCE. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE INDICATE 6 HOUR TOTALS OF 3 TO 4.7 INCH TOTALS AND A
FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT I WILL CONTINUE SPSFFC.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AS HIGH CLOUDS
START TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM
MID TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 60S.  BETTER MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AS MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE
INTO THE LOWER 50S. AS WEDGING BEGINS TO ERODE ON MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME...MAINLY ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE DAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE THERE DIFFERENCES INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST.  GFS STRONGER WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST...BUT FURTHER NORTH THE ECMWF.  ECMWF ALSO SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. CANADIAN MODEL IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AS FAR
AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF
SURFACE ANALYSIS WHICH KEEPS THE WEAK WEDGING AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED PERIODS ARE LOW BUT WILL
BLEND THE MODELS HOLDING ONTO CLOUDS AND LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  46  46  43  57 /   5  70  90  60  40
ATLANTA         64  48  49  44  56 /   5  70  80  50  30
BLAIRSVILLE     60  43  46  43  54 /   0  50  70  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    63  45  50  44  57 /   5  70  80  30  20
COLUMBUS        67  52  57  47  57 /  10 100  90  40  20
GAINESVILLE     63  46  46  44  55 /   5  70  80  40  40
MACON           65  51  56  46  60 /   5 100 100  70  20
ROME            64  46  50  45  57 /   5  70  80  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  47  51  45  56 /   5  80  80  60  20
VIDALIA         66  52  58  47  61 /   0  70 100  60  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

12

000
FXUS62 KCHS 210548
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1248 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES PER 21/02Z
OBSERVATIONS WITH 47 RECORDED AT THE NWS SENSOR AT RUFFIN...46 AT
WALTERBORO AND 50 DEGREES AT SYLVANIA. PLAN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
LOWS BY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD PER GOING TRENDS. WE DO THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OUT SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW STRATUS MOVES ONSHORE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. IN FACT A LOCALES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST MAY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO LATE AS THE INCOMING STRATUS HELPS TO INSULATE. WILL
SHOW LOWS FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE
COAST.

TRICKY SKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHILE LOW CLOUDS NOTED OFF THE
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE LOWER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW STRATUS
DECK REACHING THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SLOWLY SPREADING WEST AND SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ATTM WE
DO NOT BELIEVE THE STRATUS WILL MAKE MUCH IF ANY INROADS INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON BRINGING THE ISENTROPIC
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOW THE
OUTLIER SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE SPREADS
OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH...THE CONSENSUS NAM/ECMWF/GEM/HPC SOLUTION OF
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY SEEMS REASONABLE. WE
RESTRICTED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF SUN
ARE LIKELY...IN GENERAL SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT MUCH OF THE PERIOD
LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND DISSIPATE WHILE THEN TRANSFERRING IT/S ENERGY TO THE SE US
COAST SUN NIGHT. DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...MAINLY EARLY SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED  POPS A BIT
SAT NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST SREF AND PREFERRED WRF GUIDANCE. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME SUN...WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. MON LOOKS RATHER DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE DRIER GFS WHICH KEEPS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS LATER
TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE BATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT WATERS DRIFTING SW. MODELS
SHOW THE LEADING LEDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE KCHS
TERMINAL AFTER 09Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS. GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AROUND DAWN
BUT WRF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT REMAINS POSSIBLE. VFR BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
STRATOCUMULUS COULD REMAIN BROKEN IN THE 3-4 KFT RANGE THROUGH
SAT EVENING.

KSAV...MVFR VSBYS IN FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND WE HAVE
MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR ANY LOW CLOUD FORMATION BUT MODELS INDICATE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE N AND S OF THE TERMINAL. VFR LIKELY FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
SAT INTO TUE. VFR WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS...SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST SUN NIGHT/MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210528
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1228 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH BEFORE ENDING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOW EVENING TEMPS
TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THAT EARLIER FORECAST. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMP AND HOURLY GRIDS DOWNWARD ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES A
LITTLE BIT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISC...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. RADIATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S 7 AM. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS
AND AREAS NEAR MOISTURE SOURCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ECMWF/NAM MOVE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS WAS FASTER IN MOVING
THE SYSTEM. LEANED TO THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...SO REMOVED
THE CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY...REDUCING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGH
CHANCE AND INCREASING THE CHANCE TO 100 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT ANY WARMER AIR FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE SO EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE RANGES FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM BUFKIT
GRIDS FROM THE NAM TO OVER 1.75 INCHES FROM THE GFS. USED HPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST WHICH KEPT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES...BUT ALL MODELS GUIDANCE WEAKENS
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THEREFORE DID NOT MENTION HEAVY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUN SHOW A DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS FASTER IN
MOVING SYSTEMS THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. WITH FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH...IT LOOKS TO BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD AIR MASS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE  A COLD AIR MASS FROM CANADA THEN
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S AT CAE...CUB AND AGS. TEMPS NEAR 50
AT OGB AND MID 50S DNL. HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
GULF LOW MAY INHIBIT RADIATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. STILL
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MAINLY
DURING THE 09Z TO 14Z PERIOD WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AND
TEMPO IFR. DNL MAY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LIGHT WIND AND
MIXING WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.


CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ALL SITES AFTER 14Z WITH ONLY
THICKENING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR NOW
EXPECT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE AFTER 210600. THE FIRST
SITES TO BE AFFECTED BY RAIN WOULD BE AGS AND DNL.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210425
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1125 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH BEFORE ENDING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOW EVENING TEMPS
TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THAT EARLIER FORECAST. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMP AND HOURLY GRIDS DOWNWARD ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES A
LITTLE BIT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISC...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. RADIATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S 7 AM. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS
AND AREAS NEAR MOISTURE SOURCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ECMWF/NAM MOVE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS WAS FASTER IN MOVING
THE SYSTEM. LEANED TO THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...SO REMOVED
THE CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY...REDUCING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGH
CHANCE AND INCREASING THE CHANCE TO 100 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT ANY WARMER AIR FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE SO EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE RANGES FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM BUFKIT
GRIDS FROM THE NAM TO OVER 1.75 INCHES FROM THE GFS. USED HPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST WHICH KEPT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES...BUT ALL MODELS GUIDANCE WEAKENS
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THEREFORE DID NOT MENTION HEAVY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUN SHOW A DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS FASTER IN
MOVING SYSTEMS THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. WITH FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH...IT LOOKS TO BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD AIR MASS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE  A COLD AIR MASS FROM CANADA THEN
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S AT CAE...CUB AND AGS. TEMPS NEAR
50 AT OGB AND MID 50S DNL. HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING GULF LOW MAY INHIBIT RADIATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. STILL EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE 09Z TO 14Z PERIOD WITH PREVAILING
MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPO IFR. DNL MAY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS LIGHT WIND AND MIXING WILL LIKELY PREVENT FOG FORMATION.


CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ALL SITES AFTER 14Z WITH ONLY
THICKENING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR NOW
EXPECT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE AFTER 210600. THE FIRST
SITES TO BE AFFECTED BY RAIN WOULD BE AGS AND DNL.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS62 KCAE 210245
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
945 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD RAIN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH BEFORE ENDING MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES...DRIER AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOW EVENING TEMPS
TO FALL A LITTLE FASTER THAT EARLIER FORECAST. HAVE TWEAKED
OVERNIGHT TEMP AND HOURLY GRIDS DOWNWARD ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES A
LITTLE BIT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO DEWPOINTS AND WINDS.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISC...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. RADIATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD
AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S 7 AM. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS
AND AREAS NEAR MOISTURE SOURCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ECMWF/NAM MOVE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS WAS FASTER IN MOVING
THE SYSTEM. LEANED TO THE SLOWER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION...SO REMOVED
THE CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY...REDUCING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGH
CHANCE AND INCREASING THE CHANCE TO 100 PERCENT SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVENT ANY WARMER AIR FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE SO EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY.

MODEL GUIDANCE RANGES FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH FROM BUFKIT
GRIDS FROM THE NAM TO OVER 1.75 INCHES FROM THE GFS. USED HPC
GUIDANCE FOR THE RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST WHICH KEPT AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES...BUT ALL MODELS GUIDANCE WEAKENS
THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THEREFORE DID NOT MENTION HEAVY
RAIN IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUN SHOW A DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS FASTER IN
MOVING SYSTEMS THAN THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. A STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. WITH FORCING WELL TO THE NORTH...IT LOOKS TO BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD AIR MASS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE  A COLD AIR MASS FROM CANADA THEN
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR CAE...CUB AND DNL ...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z. VIS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN FOG FROM 10Z-14Z AS GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE LOWER
TONIGHT THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT VIS TO
STAY ABOVE IFR.

AT AGS AND OGB...DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER SO EXPECT VIS TO GO MVFR
AFTER 06Z TO 08Z WITH TEMPO IFR VIS FROM 10Z TO 13Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR ALL SITES AFTER 14Z WITH ONLY THICKENING
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS62 KFFC 210244 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
930 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.UPDATE...
NOT MANY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AS INTENSIFYING...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF SOUTH TX.
THIS IS A RATHER TYPICAL SYSTEM FOR AN EL NINO TYPE PATTERN.
GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF HOLDING OFF ON
BRINGING RAIN INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATE SAT. ECMWF HAS GENERALLY BEEN
VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR FIRST THREE
PERIODS AND INCREASED POPS FOR NEXT THREE PERIODS BASED ON SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION. QPF STILL IN QUESTION...BUT LATEST HPC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 2.0+ INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA AND 1.0-1.5
INCHES NORTH. INCREASING CONCERNING FOR AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING...BUT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 6 HR FFG VALUES OF 3 INCHES NORTH
TO 4.5 INCHES SOUTH. EARLIER SPS HIGHLIGHTS CONCERNS FOR
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT HAS ONLY BEEN A WEEK SINCE THE LAST
FLOOD EVENT. FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO SHOW HIGHER QPF FROM SLOWER MOVING/MORE INTENSE SYSTEM. HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD FALL SE OF A CSG-MCN-AGS LINE AS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN TRACKING SFC LOW ACROSS S GA. THERE IS ALSO SOME
CONCERN FOR TSRA IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. 18Z GFS AGREES WITH CURRENT
THINKING...HOWEVER...KEEPING TSRA THREAT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.
NONETHELESS...SOME TSRA THREAT 00Z-18Z SUN ACROSS OUR SE
COUNTIES...BUT WILL SHOW JUST SE OF CWA FOR NOW. AGAIN...MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN ON SATURATED SOIL.

19
&&

.PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED 525 PM EST FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
AREA DRY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG WAVE MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST...AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL ALLOW THE LOW TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GFS IS THE FASTEST OF
THE SHORT-TERM MODELS WITH BRINGING THE LOW EAST ALONG THE
COAST...AND ALLOWING MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD A COMPROMISE AS THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST...AND IS
EVEN SLOWER ON THE LATEST 12Z RUN. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BEGIN RIDGING DOWN
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IN A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT
BEGINNING TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NOTICEABLY COOLER
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY UNDER ALL THE CLOUD COVER...AND WILL
ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT FOR THE MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL LOW. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT DO EXPECT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL RAINFALL ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 1-2". THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN LATE IN THE SHORT
TERM...UNLESS YOU BELIEVE THE NAM WHICH LINGERS IT NEAR LOUISIANA.
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT AS THE NEXT
WAVE IN PLAINS KICKS THE COASTAL SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE COMING OFF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK
DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ATTENDANT FRONT NOT ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...AT LEAST
INITIALLY... DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. GFS FASTER...SLIGHTLY DEEPER...AND FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BRINGING THE WEAK REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HARDLY MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER INDICATED FOR OUR AREA. ECMWF HAS A VASTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTION...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE RETURN WITH THE SLOWER SYSTEM.
IT BRINGS WIDESPREAD MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE EXTREMELY
LOW TOWARD MIDWEEK. ABOUT THE ONLY THING BOTH MODELS ARE AGREEING
ON IS THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS THAT WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY...BUT EVEN THEN THE GFS INDICATING A MUCH DEEPER
AND COLDER TROUGH. WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED AS IS FOR NOW WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS WOULD INDICATE...
BUT WOULD NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED TO SEE THE ECMWF VERIFY (IT`S
BEEN DOING A MUCH BETTER JOB AT HANDLING THE SYSTEMS COMING
THROUGH LATELY).

25
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST...EXCEPT AFTER 00Z SUN IN ATL WHEN THE RAIN
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND MVFR CIGS WILL ENTER THE AREA.
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING IN DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
RAIN AFTER 21Z IN THE ATL/CSG/MCN AREAS AND WILL ADD A PROB30 TO
THOSE LOCATIONS AFTER 21Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10
KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

17
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          43  62  47  52  44 /   0  30  90  90  40
ATLANTA         46  61  48  54  46 /   0  40  90  70  30
BLAIRSVILLE     37  57  43  50  42 /   0  20  80  80  40
CARTERSVILLE    39  60  47  53  45 /   0  30  90  60  30
COLUMBUS        45  60  51  62  47 /   0  50  90  50  20
GAINESVILLE     44  61  46  50  44 /   0  30  90  80  40
MACON           44  64  51  62  46 /   0  40  90  70  20
ROME            39  61  47  56  45 /   0  30  80  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  39  61  47  56  43 /   0  40  90  60  30
VIDALIA         44  66  53  63  50 /   0  20  90  80  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

25/17/19

000
FXUS62 KCHS 210233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES PER 21/02Z
OBSERVATIONS WITH 47 RECORDED AT THE NWS SENSOR AT RUFFIN...46 AT
WALTERBORO AND 50 DEGREES AT SYLVANIA. PLAN TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
LOWS BY 2-3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD PER GOING TRENDS. WE DO THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OUT SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW STRATUS MOVES ONSHORE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. IN FACT A LOCALES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST MAY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE A
DEGREE OR TWO LATE AS THE INCOMING STRATUS HELPS TO INSULATE. WILL
SHOW LOWS FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE
COAST.

TRICKY SKY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHILE LOW CLOUDS NOTED OFF THE
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE LOWER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MODELS HAVE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW STRATUS
DECK REACHING THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SLOWLY SPREADING WEST AND SOUTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ATTM WE
DO NOT BELIEVE THE STRATUS WILL MAKE MUCH IF ANY INROADS INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE FAR NORTHERN AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON BRINGING THE ISENTROPIC
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS NOW THE
OUTLIER SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE SPREADS
OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH...THE CONSENSUS NAM/ECMWF/GEM/HPC SOLUTION OF
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY SEEMS REASONABLE. WE
RESTRICTED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST. ALTHOUGH SOME POCKETS OF SUN
ARE LIKELY...IN GENERAL SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT MUCH OF THE PERIOD
LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE INITIAL LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND DISSIPATE WHILE THEN TRANSFERRING IT/S ENERGY TO THE SE US
COAST SUN NIGHT. DESPITE THE DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF SOME UPPER LEVEL
FORCING...AND DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...MAINLY EARLY SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED  POPS A BIT
SAT NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST SREF AND PREFERRED WRF GUIDANCE. STILL
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME SUN...WITH DECREASING
CHANCES SUN NIGHT. MON LOOKS RATHER DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK BUT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE DRIER GFS WHICH KEEPS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE BATCH OF STRATUS OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA MOVING SOUTH. MODELS SHOW THE LEADING LEDGE OF THE
STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO THE KCHS TERMINAL AFTER 07Z WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL CEILINGS AS LOW AS 600-800 FT SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 09-12Z FOR IFR CEILINGS. FOG
PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL THINK
THERE WILL ENOUGH PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO 5SM DESPITE THE 15-20 KT 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC FLOW. LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF AFTER 15Z SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING.

KSAV...CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE KSAV TERMINAL TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL KEEP
CEILINGS OUT OF THE TAF...BUT AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE
THAT THE STRATUS COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT.
COULD SEE A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP AFTER 09Z DESPITE
15-20 KT 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC FLOW WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO
HIGH END MVFR THRESHOLDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS
POSSIBLE SAT THROUGH MON. VFR THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS...SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE HOISTED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST REGION WILL TRANSFER ITS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE US COAST SUN NIGHT/MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$