[top]
000
FXUS62 KCHS 082128 CCA
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AND A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THE REGION THIS WEEK...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
MONDAY AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IDA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TUESDAY. IDA/S REMNANT LOW WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND EMERGE
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HOLDS ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. THE SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS HEATING WANES WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW EXTENSIVE CLOSED CELL STRATOCUMULUS
LURKING OVER MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE CELLS TRY AND PROPAGATE TO THE WEST
OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS...HOWEVER WE CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW PATCHES MOVING ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENS--MAINLY FROM HILTON HEAD SOUTH TO TYBEE
ISLAND AND SAPELO ISLAND. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM HURRICANE IDA WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLAN
TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DECOUPLE. THE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN A BIT OVERNIGHT AS IDA MOVES NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM WELL OFFSHORE.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING CIRRUS
ALOFT SHOULD HELP MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...EXCEPT
WELL INLAND WHERE COMPLETE DECOUPLING WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY. WILL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE BEACH FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
BREAKDOWN AND PROPAGATE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS POTENT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGS ACROSS TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DRIVE HURRICANE IDA NORTHWARD
TOWARDS ACROSS OPEN GULF TOWARDS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. WITH
DIMINISHING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND
RESULTING MOISTURE FLUX MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN FOR
THE UPPER GEORGIA AND LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. BOTH THE NAM AND
SREF SUGGEST THERE IS ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LIGHT...TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HIGHS TO
THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER
60S...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO SOLUTION DISPLAYING VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET A HANDLE ON THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IDA. AS A RESULT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE FORECAST TRACK PROVIDED BY THE HURRICANE
CENTER...AND SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL OF THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG WITH BEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
WILL HOLD POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. DEEP MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE PHASING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA PASS BY TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GEORGIA FLORIDA
BORDER...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY OR HIGH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES TO HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS NOW DEPICT THE REMNANTS OF
IDA DEVELOPING INTO A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW FOR THE
LATE WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTHWARD AND BEING THE DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
AREA. TO TRY AND MINIMIZE ERROR...HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST FOR THE LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION. AS FOR
FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF DEEP
MOISTURE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. HAVE THEN
KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT MUCH OF
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AS
WELL AS THE LOCATION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW IF INDEED IT DOES
END UP DEVELOPING.
COASTAL IMPACTS...
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...INCREASING TIDES...STRONG WINDS AND HIGH
SURF MAY IMPACT THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY MID WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE
EVENTUAL TRACK IDA/S REMNANTS TAKE. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES...WIND
ADVISORIES AND/OR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS THIS WEEK AS A
VARIETY OF HAZARDS COULD IMPACT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
FOR KCHS AND KSAV. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KSAV. WILL MAINTAIN FEW TO SCATTERED
STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ONSHORE.
BUT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...DON/T EXPECT WINDS TO GO CALM
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HINDER FOG/LOW CEILING DEVELOPMENT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HURRICANE IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TIGHTENS. SHOULD SEE
SIMILAR TRENDS SPREAD ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT THIS FAR NORTH BEGINS TO RESPOND TO IDA/S CONTINUED
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WHILE
10-15 KT SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. ITS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SEAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF BUOY
AND PILOT BOAT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. SEAS AT
41008 HAVE BEEN HOLDING AROUND 4 FT SINCE LATE MORNING WHICH IS A
LITTLE AHEAD OF THE LATEST WW4 OUTPUT. PLAN TO STAY ABOUT 0.5 TO 1
FT AHEAD OF WW4 GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WHICH WOULD PLACE 4-6 FT SEAS
IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS BY MID EVENING...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
LATE. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE LOOKS ON TRACK. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-5 FT OVER THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE MONDAY AS
COMBINED SEAS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING FLOW
BETWEEN IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 6 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AND SINCE THIS IS WITHIN THE SECOND
PERIOD SMALL CRAFT FLAGS WILL BE HOISTED FOR AMZ352-354. LOOKS
LIKE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5 FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS
NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 6-8
FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG...CREATING VERY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE REMNANTS OF IDA SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF THE WATERS POSSIBLY SEEING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE GRADIENT ENDS UP BECOMING...THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
AMZ354.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 082105
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AND A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THE REGION THIS WEEK...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
MONDAY AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IDA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
TUESDAY. IDA/S REMNANT LOW WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND EMERGE
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HOLDS ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION. THE SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS HEATING WANES WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW EXTENSIVE CLOSED CELL STRATOCUMULUS
LURKING OVER MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE CELLS PROPAGATE OVER THE RELATIVELY
COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS...HOWEVER WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
FEW PATCHES MOVING ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
DEEPENS--MAINLY FROM HILTON HEAD SOUTH TO TYBEE ISLAND AND SAPELO
ISLAND. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM HURRICANE IDA WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLAN TO KEEP
SKIES CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DECOUPLE. THE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN A BIT OVERNIGHT AS IDA MOVES NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM WELL OFFSHORE.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS COMBINED WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING CIRRUS
ALOFT SHOULD HELP MODERATE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT...EXCEPT
WELL INLAND WHERE COMPLETE DECOUPLING WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY. WILL SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE BEACH FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
BREAKDOWN AND PROPAGATE EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS POTENT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DIGS ACROSS TEXAS AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DRIVE HURRICANE IDA NORTHWARD
TOWARDS ACROSS OPEN GULF TOWARDS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST.
WITH DIMINISHING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
AND RESULTING MOISTURE FLUX MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY MAKE A RUN
FOR THE UPPER GEORGIA AND LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. BOTH THE
NAM AND SREF SUGGEST THERE IS ENOUGH OF A POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALBEIT LIGHT...TO
JUSTIFY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 75-77 DEGREE RANGE WITH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S...SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO SOLUTION DISPLAYING VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AS THEY STRUGGLE TO GET A HANDLE ON THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IDA. AS A RESULT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE FORECAST TRACK PROVIDED BY THE HURRICANE
CENTER...AND SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL OF THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. DEEPEST MOISTURE ALONG WITH BEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO
WILL HOLD POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. DEEP MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE PHASING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA PASS BY TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GEORGIA FLORIDA
BORDER...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY OR HIGH CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF POSSIBILITIES TO HOW THE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS NOW DEPICT THE REMNANTS OF
IDA DEVELOPING INTO A FAIRLY STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW FOR THE LATE
WEEK TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
SOUTHWARD AND BEING THE DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
AREA. TO TRY AND MINIMIZE ERROR...HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST FOR THE LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION. AS FOR
FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE EXIT OF DEEP
MOISTURE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. HAVE THEN
KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT MUCH OF
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AS
WELL AS THE LOCATION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW IF INDEED IT DOES
END UP DEVELOPING.
COASTAL IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...INCREASING TIDES...
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SURF MAY IMPACT THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY MID
WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK IDA/S REMNANTS TAKE. HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORIES AND/OR COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS THIS WEEK AS A VARIETY OF HAZARDS COULD IMPACT THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
FOR KCHS AND KSAV. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KSAV. WILL MAINTAIN FEW TO SCATTERED
STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ONSHORE.
BUT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...DON/T EXPECT WINDS TO GO CALM
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HINDER FOG/LOW CEILING DEVELOPMENT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HURRICANE IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TIGHTENS. SHOULD SEE
SIMILAR TRENDS SPREAD ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT THIS FAR NORTH BEGINS TO RESPOND TO IDA/S CONTINUED
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. THE HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WHILE
10-15 KT SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. ITS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SEAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LACK OF BUOY
AND PILOT BOAT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. SEAS AT
41008 HAVE BEEN HOLDING AROUND 4 FT SINCE LATE MORNING WHICH IS A
LITTLE AHEAD OF THE LATEST WW4 OUTPUT. PLAN TO STAY ABOUT 0.5 TO 1
FT AHEAD OF WW4 GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WHICH WOULD PLACE 4-6 FT SEAS
IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS BY MID EVENING...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
LATE. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE LOOKS ON TRACK. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-4 FT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-5 FT OVER THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE MONDAY AS
COMBINED SEAS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING FLOW
BETWEEN IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 6 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY AND SINCE THIS IS WITHIN THE SECOND
PERIOD SMALL CRAFT FLAGS WILL BE HOISTED FOR AMZ352-354. LOOKS
LIKE SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-5 FT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS
NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 6-8
FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG...CREATING VERY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION
AND THE REMNANTS OF IDA SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH PORTIONS OF THE WATERS POSSIBLY SEEING SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE GRADIENT ENDS UP BECOMING...THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
AMZ354.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS62 KFFC 082057
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
357 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE (SURFACE AND ALOFT) CONTINUING
TO SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST OUT OF
TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...IDA CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
TAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. LATEST GFS RUN A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER
...SHOWING IDA MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL BY
12Z TUESDAY...THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL GA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND
NHC TRACK...KEEPS IDA FARTHER SOUTH...MOVING IT ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA. NONETHELESS...INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR WIDESPREAD
RAIN EVENT FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...WITH HEAVY RAIN A
POSSIBILITY WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM IDA IN THE MIX. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SWATH OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWA BY
THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH GFS AND NOW HPC SHOWING HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. ECMWF PEGGING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GA...ESPECIALLY EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL
DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AND 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE 2+ INCHES...FEEL
WITH 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS COULD SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING. WILL ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON
TO AUGUSTA LINE FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THIS SYSTEM...COULD ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN IDA AND
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECAST ISSUANCE.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NHC TRACK TAKES REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE NE FL COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING REMNANTS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
BY THAT TIME. NAM STILL HOLDS REMNANTS SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO CONTINUE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND...ENDING PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
REGION SUNDAY AND MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 47 69 55 60 51 / 0 10 70 100 60
ATLANTA 52 68 57 61 51 / 0 20 80 100 50
BLAIRSVILLE 41 65 53 58 46 / 0 10 70 90 50
CARTERSVILLE 47 67 56 59 51 / 0 20 80 100 40
COLUMBUS 54 73 62 66 54 / 0 30 80 100 50
GAINESVILLE 49 67 55 57 50 / 0 10 70 100 50
MACON 51 75 63 67 55 / 0 20 80 90 60
ROME 45 68 54 60 51 / 0 5 80 90 30
PEACHTREE CITY 45 68 57 62 52 / 0 20 80 100 50
VIDALIA 53 76 63 70 57 / 0 10 70 80 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...
BIBB...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...JASPER...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...
MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...
PAULDING...PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...SPALDING...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TOWNS...
TROUP...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...WHITE...
WHITFIELD...WILKES.
&&
$$
49
[top]
000
FXUS62 KCAE 081754
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1254 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALTHOUGH WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING PREFER MAV
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY NOTED IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE MODELS AGREE KEEPING
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS
THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW BECAUSE OF LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY AFFECT MOVEMENT OF IDA. NAM REMAINS
SLOWER MOVING IDA INLAND WITH SREF POPS HIGHER ACROSS
GEORGIA/ALABAMA. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER IN THE MREF. BOTH
GFS/NAM INDICATE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE FLUX
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SO WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY. COULD BE
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FLUX. MODELS SHOW
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT TIMING DIFFERENT. 30 TO 50 KT 850MB
JET POSSIBLE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY LINGER IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS WITH AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG COASTAL FRONT AND CLOUDINESS LINGERING IN THE
MIDLANDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES
BUILDING SOUTHEAST...SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY THROUGH WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. SOME
CIRRUS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT E-SE AFTER 14Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE IDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 081733
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1233 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HURRICANE IDA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE LAKING LANDFALL AS A LARGE NON-TROPICAL
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING. IDA/S REMNANT
LOW WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE
REGION TODAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL HELP MODERATE CONDITIONS THERE SOMEWHAT. MEAN LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS OVER THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IT COULD BRUSH PARTS OF
MCINTOSH COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
A FEW PATCHES OF SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND JUST INLAND ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...BUT WE REALLY DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...WHILE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...PREVENTING WINDS FROM DECOUPLING ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. CIRRUS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...WHILE THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COULD
ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS TO ADVECT INLAND LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND/OR LACK OF DECOUPLED WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
COOLING TONIGHT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TOWARD THE
COAST. AREAS FARTHER INLAND COULD SEE LOWS AROUND 50 OR IN THE
LOWER 50S DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE EVOLUTION
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA AND ITS REMNANTS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH /TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA/ AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH TC IDA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE STORM AND THE
UPPER TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TAKING THE DEEP
MOISTURE WITH IT. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THIS EVENT BUT WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT. THUNDER PROSPECTS APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT IF THE WARM SECTOR GETS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
FOR KCHS AND KSAV. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KSAV. WILL MAINTAIN FEW TO SCATTERED
STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH ONSHORE.
BUT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...DON/T EXPECT WINDS TO GO CALM
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HINDER FOG/LOW CEILING DEVELOPMENT. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MON. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE UP TO 4 FT AT 41008 WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. OPTED TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS UP BY SEVERAL HOURS AS A RESULT.
OTHERWISE E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND BUILDING TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST
NHC FORECAST PLACES THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST THU MORNING. PER COORD WITH JAX...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THURSDAY/S FORECAST BUT SOME CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE IDA MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE ONSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 15 KT OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE
FAVORABLE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AS WELL...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRES SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW /TC IDA OR ITS REMNANTS/ MON AND
MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES LOOKS
TO PICK UP TC IDA /OR PART OF THE SYSTEM/ AND MOVE IT NE OVER/NEAR
THE MARINE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WED/THU. DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF TC IDA AND ITS REMNANTS...MARINERS ARE REMINDED
THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM ARE LIKELY
TO TRANSITION INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM MON NIGHT AS SEAS
BUILD TO 6 FT. A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP
B/W THE DEPARTING LOW AND A BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INLAND TUE
NIGHT/WED. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. IMPROVING
CONDS EXPECTED THU WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BY THU NIGHT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 081722
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1221 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE TODAY. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
VERIFICATION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS AGREED KEEPING DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS WAS FASTER MOVING MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT
ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE NAM. THE MAV MOS INDICATED CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MET MOS WAS MUCH LOWER. KEPT POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WERE AN AVERAGE OF THE MAV AND MET MOS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTED THE COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE REST OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE GFS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT TUESDAY. IT INDICATED H85 WINDS NEAR 45 KNOTS WITH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SUPPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOOD THREAT. THE NAM WAS
SLOWER AND SHOWED LESS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z SATURDAY ECMWF WAS CLOSER TO
THE NAM. THE 00Z SUNDAY ECMWF WAS CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH RESPECT
TO SPREADING THE DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT WAS SLOWER. BELIEVE
THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THE ECMWF TREND WITH POPS LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS AND OGB. SOME
CIRRUS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. SFC WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...BECOMING LIGHT E-SE AFTER 14Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
FUTURE TRACK OF HURRICANE IDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 081524
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1024 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HURRICANE IDA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE LAKING LANDFALL AS A LARGE NON-TROPICAL
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING. IDA/S REMNANT
LOW WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST THURSDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE
REGION TODAY RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES GENERALLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL HELP MODERATE CONDITIONS THERE SOMEWHAT. MEAN LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS OVER THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL REMAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME IT COULD BRUSH PARTS OF
MCINTOSH COUNTY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
A FEW PATCHES OF SHALLOW CUMULUS DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND JUST INLAND ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...BUT WE REALLY DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...WHILE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...PREVENTING WINDS FROM DECOUPLING ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. CIRRUS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...WHILE THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COULD
ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS TO ADVECT INLAND LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND/OR LACK OF DECOUPLED WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
COOLING TONIGHT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TOWARD THE
COAST. AREAS FARTHER INLAND COULD SEE LOWS AROUND 50 OR IN THE
LOWER 50S DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE EVOLUTION
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA AND ITS REMNANTS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH /TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA/ AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH TC IDA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE STORM AND THE
UPPER TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TAKING THE DEEP
MOISTURE WITH IT. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THIS EVENT BUT WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT. THUNDER PROSPECTS APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT IF THE WARM SECTOR GETS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING...
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD
RESULT IN A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR
KSAV...OTHERWISE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED FROM
THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MON. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE UP TO 4 FT AT 41008 WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. OPTED TO MOVE THE START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS UP BY SEVERAL HOURS AS A RESULT.
OTHERWISE E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND BUILDING TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. LATEST
NHC FORECAST PLACES THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST THU MORNING. PER COORD WITH JAX...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THURSDAY/S FORECAST BUT SOME CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE IDA MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE ONSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 15 KT OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE
FAVORABLE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AS WELL...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRES SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW /TC IDA OR ITS REMNANTS/ MON AND
MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES LOOKS
TO PICK UP TC IDA /OR PART OF THE SYSTEM/ AND MOVE IT NE OVER/NEAR
THE MARINE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WED/THU. DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF TC IDA AND ITS REMNANTS...MARINERS ARE REMINDED
THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM ARE LIKELY
TO TRANSITION INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM MON NIGHT AS SEAS
BUILD TO 6 FT. A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP
B/W THE DEPARTING LOW AND A BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INLAND TUE
NIGHT/WED. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT GALES ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. IMPROVING
CONDS EXPECTED THU WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BY THU NIGHT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 081140
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
640 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE TODAY. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
VERIFICATION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS AGREED KEEPING DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS WAS FASTER MOVING MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT
ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE NAM. THE MAV MOS INDICATED CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MET MOS WAS MUCH LOWER. KEPT POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WERE AN AVERAGE OF THE MAV AND MET MOS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTED THE COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE REST OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE GFS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT TUESDAY. IT INDICATED H85 WINDS NEAR 45 KNOTS WITH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SUPPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOOD THREAT. THE NAM WAS
SLOWER AND SHOWED LESS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z SATURDAY ECMWF WAS CLOSER TO
THE NAM. THE 00Z SUNDAY ECMWF WAS CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH RESPECT
TO SPREADING THE DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT WAS SLOWER. BELIEVE
THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THE ECMWF TREND WITH POPS LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN EARLY MORNING FOG WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY
TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER 09/06Z...WITH THE
HIGH BEGINNING TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE AREA EXPECT POSSIBLE MVFR
FOG. CURRENTLY HAVE LEFT FOG FOR 09/06Z AND LATER OUT OF TAFS
UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING FRONT AND MOISTURE FROM TS IDA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 081125
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
625 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF HURRICANE IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS...
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIN CIRRUS MAY ALSO BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS OF 76 OR
77. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER...AROUND 70...DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...WHILE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...PREVENTING WINDS FROM DECOUPLING ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. CIRRUS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...WHILE THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COULD
ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS TO ADVECT INLAND LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND/OR LACK OF DECOUPLED WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
COOLING TONIGHT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TOWARD THE
COAST. AREAS FARTHER INLAND COULD SEE LOWS AROUND 50 OR IN THE
LOWER 50S DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE EVOLUTION
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA AND ITS REMNANTS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH /TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA/ AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH TC IDA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE STORM AND THE
UPPER TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TAKING THE DEEP
MOISTURE WITH IT. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THIS EVENT BUT WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT. THUNDER PROSPECTS APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT IF THE WARM SECTOR GETS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING...
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD
RESULT IN A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR
KSAV...OTHERWISE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED FROM
THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MON. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGHOUT THE WATERS. DESPITE A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVES...THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD KEEP SEAS
UP AS HIGH AS 2-4 FT AS WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACT THE WATERS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE IDA MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE ONSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 15 KT OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE
FAVORABLE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AS WELL...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRES SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW /TC IDA OR ITS REMNANTS/ MON AND
MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES LOOKS
TO PICK UP TC IDA /OR PART OF THE SYSTEM/ AND MOVE IT NE OVER/NEAR
THE MARINE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WED/THU. DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF TC IDA AND ITS REMNANTS...MARINERS ARE REMINDED
THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM ARE LIKELY
TO TRANSITION INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM MON NIGHT AS SEAS
BUILD TO 6 FT. A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP
B/W THE DEPARTING LOW AND A BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INLAND TUE
NIGHT/WED. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE.
IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED THU WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED WITHIN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY THU NIGHT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
JAQ/RJB
000
FXUS62 KFFC 081025 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WANE LATE TODAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TOP GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ALLOWING A FEW CLOUDS TO START SPILLING INTO GEORGIA.
HURRICANE IDA WAS STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IS FORECAST
TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY. THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
THE EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF IDA...WITH A FEW
SUGGESTING THE REMNANTS OF IDA REACHING SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY.
SEVERAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM
BRING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H2 JET STREAK ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY...COINCIDENT WITH A PERIOD OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. FOCUSED THE
GREATEST POPS WHERE THESE FEATURES OVERLAPPED...ROUGHLY ALONG A LA
GRANGE TO ATHENS LINE. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAINT A
2-4 INCH RAIN SWATH OVER THAT AREA. THOUGH THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THOSE WETTER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THEIR DEPICTION OF A STRONGER
IDA...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL SREF/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO
HINT AT A MUCH DRIER FORECAST BY KEEPING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE STRONGER OVER US.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG 1030 MB DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL RUSH TO BUILD IN TO OUR REGION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND
REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ONLY THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS US FIRMLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
RRH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. VSBY WILL CONTINUE TO RESPOND BRIEFLY
TO GROUND FOG DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE AT THE TYPICAL SPOTS...EXPECT
AT WORST BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. WINDS ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE THIS
MORNING...VARIABLE DIRECTIONS OBSERVED AS SOME SITES ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE IN
EASTERN TENNESSEE...AND OTHER SITES REMAINING NORTHEAST. WILL
CONTINUE VARIABLE WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS SHOULD ALL
SWING TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 46 70 54 64 / 0 0 10 50 80
ATLANTA 74 52 69 56 63 / 0 5 10 60 80
BLAIRSVILLE 73 41 65 49 63 / 0 0 10 50 60
CARTERSVILLE 75 45 69 55 62 / 0 0 10 60 70
COLUMBUS 75 54 74 62 68 / 0 5 20 70 80
GAINESVILLE 74 49 68 55 63 / 0 0 10 50 80
MACON 75 50 74 61 68 / 0 5 10 60 70
ROME 75 43 70 52 66 / 0 0 10 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 75 43 68 55 64 / 0 5 10 60 80
VIDALIA 76 52 75 62 69 / 0 0 10 50 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 080856
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
356 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WANE LATE TODAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER TOP GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...ALLOWING A FEW CLOUDS TO START SPILLING INTO GEORGIA.
HURRICANE IDA WAS STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IS FORECAST
TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY. THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
THE EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF IDA...WITH A FEW
SUGGESTING THE REMNANTS OF IDA REACHING SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY.
SEVERAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM
BRING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H2 JET STREAK ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA ON TUESDAY...COINCIDENT WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. FOCUSED THE GREATEST
POPS WHERE THESE FEATURES OVERLAPPED...ROUGHLY ALONG A LA GRANGE
TO ATHENS LINE. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS PAINT A 2-4
INCH RAIN SWATH OVER THAT AREA. THOUGH THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THOSE WETTER SOLUTIONS GIVEN THEIR DEPICTION OF A STRONGER
IDA...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL SREF/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
DO HINT AT A MUCH DRIER FORECAST BY KEEPING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONFINED CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE STRONGER OVER
US.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG 1030 MB DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL RUSH TO BUILD IN TO OUR REGION STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND
REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. ONLY THE GFS TRIES
TO BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHEREAS THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS US FIRMLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE.
RRH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 75 46 70 54 64 / 0 0 10 50 80
ATLANTA 74 52 69 56 63 / 0 5 10 60 80
BLAIRSVILLE 73 41 65 49 63 / 0 0 10 50 60
CARTERSVILLE 75 45 69 55 62 / 0 0 10 60 70
COLUMBUS 75 54 74 62 68 / 0 5 20 70 80
GAINESVILLE 74 49 68 55 63 / 0 0 10 50 80
MACON 75 50 74 61 68 / 0 5 10 60 70
ROME 75 43 70 52 66 / 0 0 10 60 60
PEACHTREE CITY 75 43 68 55 64 / 0 5 10 60 80
VIDALIA 76 52 75 62 69 / 0 0 10 50 70
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 080832
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
332 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF HURRICANE IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS...
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WHILE EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIN CIRRUS MAY ALSO BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING HIGHS OF 76 OR
77. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER...AROUND 70...DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HURRICANE IDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...WHILE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...PREVENTING WINDS FROM DECOUPLING ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. CIRRUS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT...WHILE THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COULD
ALLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS TO ADVECT INLAND LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND/OR LACK OF DECOUPLED WINDS SHOULD LIMIT
COOLING TONIGHT...KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TOWARD THE
COAST. AREAS FARTHER INLAND COULD SEE LOWS AROUND 50 OR IN THE
LOWER 50S DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE EVOLUTION
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA AND ITS REMNANTS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH /TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA/ AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH TC IDA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY...PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE STORM AND THE
UPPER TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TAKING THE DEEP
MOISTURE WITH IT. STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
RAIN WITH THIS EVENT BUT WITH THE RECENT DRY WEATHER WE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AT THIS POINT. THUNDER PROSPECTS APPEAR
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE ON TUE/TUE
NIGHT IF THE WARM SECTOR GETS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING...
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD
RESULT IN A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR
KSAV...OTHERWISE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MON. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGHOUT THE WATERS. DESPITE A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVES...THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD KEEP SEAS
UP AS HIGH AS 2-4 FT AS WEAK EASTERLY SWELLS IMPACT THE WATERS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE IDA MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE ONSHORE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 15 KT OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE
FAVORABLE FETCH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD AS WELL...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AS A RESULT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL GIVE WAY TO A LOW
PRES SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW /TC IDA OR ITS REMNANTS/ MON AND
MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRES LOOKS
TO PICK UP TC IDA /OR PART OF THE SYSTEM/ AND MOVE IT NE OVER/NEAR
THE MARINE AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WED/THU. DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF TC IDA AND ITS REMNANTS...MARINERS ARE REMINDED
THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
ONGOING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM ARE LIKELY
TO TRANSITION INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 20 NM MON NIGHT AS SEAS
BUILD TO 6 FT. A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP
B/W THE DEPARTING LOW AND A BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INLAND TUE
NIGHT/WED. IT IS DURING THIS TIME THAT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE.
IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED THU WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED WITHIN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY THU NIGHT.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
JAQ/RJB
000
FXUS62 KCAE 080805
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
305 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE TODAY. USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
VERIFICATION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS AGREED KEEPING DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS WAS FASTER MOVING MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT
ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE NAM. THE MAV MOS INDICATED CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MET MOS WAS MUCH LOWER. KEPT POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WERE AN AVERAGE OF THE MAV AND MET MOS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
SUPPORTED THE COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE REST OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL
INCONSISTENCY. THE GFS SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT TUESDAY. IT INDICATED H85 WINDS NEAR 45 KNOTS WITH AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SUPPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLOOD THREAT. THE NAM WAS
SLOWER AND SHOWED LESS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH. THE 12Z SATURDAY ECMWF WAS CLOSER TO
THE NAM. THE 00Z SUNDAY ECMWF WAS CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH RESPECT
TO SPREADING THE DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD...BUT WAS SLOWER. BELIEVE
THE BEST FORECAST FOR NOW IS TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THE ECMWF TREND WITH POPS LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG
INVERSION ALREADY SET UP WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT AGS AND OGB. WILL
INCLUDE PREVAILING FOG CONDITIONS AT AGS/OGB AND TEMPO ELSEWHERE
THROUGH 12-13Z. FOG WILL RAPIDLY BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MP
000
FXUS62 KCAE 080559
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1259 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 30S...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
IN A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY SO WILL JUST ADVERTISE IN THE ZFP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
EACH DAY SO FORECAST TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST
ALONG WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S.
IDA. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA...BUT
MOISTURE AHEAD TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO GA/SC BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...STILL SOME QUESTION CONCERNING THE FUTURE
PATH OF T.S. IDA...BUT MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST
MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL BE ON TUESDAY. WILL GO
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE CSRA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
LATE TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY LATE
SATURDAY SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP BY THEN. FORECAST
TEMPS CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG
INVERSION ALREADY SET UP WITH FOG DEVELOPING AT AGS AND OGB. WILL
INCLUDE PREVAILING FOG CONDITIONS AT AGS/OGB AND TEMPO ELSEWHERE
THROUGH 12-13Z. FOG WILL RAPIDLY BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 080541
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1241 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS...
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES EXTENDS E-W OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FROST SEEMS LIKELY OVER
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS REGIONS. THE
GREATEST FROST POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY N OF A PERKINS-
HILLTONIA-CROCKETVILLE-SMOAKS LINE. WE BELIEVE THAT FROST SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY PATCHY...ALTHOUGH WE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALLENDALE BRIEFLY REACH 35-36
DEGREES TOWARD DAWN...SUGGESTING A VERY LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY GREAT FROST COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND IDA WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS LOOK TO GO NO HIGHER
THAN 10-15 MPH. A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
BECOME ABSORBED THE THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME
AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS AS IT DISSIPATES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD
SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHALLOW CUMULUS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW HOURS OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
REACH IN THE MID-UPPER 70S PER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS EXCEPT
AT THE BEACHES WHERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL LIFT TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF
THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. INITIALLY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LACK OF ANY DEEP
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOULD PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
ROLLING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY...AND WITH BOTH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING
SWINGING INTO THE REGION...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALL AREA.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. STILL SOME TIMING
DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN FREE
FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH
OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT PROBABILITIES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING...
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT. THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD
RESULT IN A FEW STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR
KSAV...OTHERWISE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MON. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
MARINE AREA AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES INLAND AND
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT NEAR
SHORE...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT COULD LOCALLY VEER
EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PERSIST WITH SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS
OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN THE
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
WINDS/SEAS OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH
THURSDAY. HEADLINE THRESHOLDS MAY NOT BE REACHED IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG WIND
SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT DEPENDING
ON THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...GALE CONDITIONS
MAY BE REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 080223
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS...
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES EXTENDS E-W OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY FROST SEEMS LIKELY OVER
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS REGIONS. THE
GREATEST FROST POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY N OF A PERKINS-
HILLTONIA-CROCKETVILLE-SMOAKS LINE. WE BELIEVE THAT FROST SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY PATCHY...ALTHOUGH WE WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE ISOLATED LOCATIONS SUCH AS ALLENDALE BRIEFLY REACH 35-36
DEGREES TOWARD DAWN...SUGGESTING A VERY LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR
SLIGHTLY GREAT FROST COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND IDA WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS LOOK TO GO NO HIGHER
THAN 10-15 MPH. A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
BECOME ABSORBED THE THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME
AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS AS IT DISSIPATES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD
SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHALLOW CUMULUS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW HOURS OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
REACH IN THE MID-UPPER 70S PER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS EXCEPT
AT THE BEACHES WHERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL LIFT TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF
THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. INITIALLY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LACK OF ANY DEEP
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOULD PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
ROLLING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY...AND WITH BOTH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING
SWINGING INTO THE REGION...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALL AREA.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. STILL SOME TIMING
DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN FREE
FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH
OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT PROBABILITIES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN CALM WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS. NORTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING THEN
VEER TO AN EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MON. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT
INTO THU.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
MARINE AREA AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES INLAND AND
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT NEAR
SHORE...BUILDING TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT COULD LOCALLY VEER
EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PERSIST WITH SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS
OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN THE
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
WINDS/SEAS OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH
THURSDAY. HEADLINE THRESHOLDS MAY NOT BE REACHED IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG WIND
SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT DEPENDING
ON THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...GALE CONDITIONS
MAY BE REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 080158
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
858 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND
WINDS IN GRIDS TO CATCH CURRENT TRENDS. NO UPDATE TO ZONES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS
WHERE DIFFERENCES BEGIN. ALL FOCUS IS ON THE FUTURE OF IDA. ECMWF
HAS HAD THE BEST RECORD OF THE MODELS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS WITH GFS COMING IN A CLOSE SECOND. WHILE BOTH MODELS DO
DIVERGE ON THE LOCATION OF IDA BY TUESDAY (WHICH IS IN THE LONG
TERM)...BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN THE H5 TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PICKING UP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND STREAMING
IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH K INDEX VALUES. BEING A
TROPICAL SYSTEM THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CAPES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SURFACE BASED LIFTED. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK OF IDA IS LOW...WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY.
LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS IT HINGES ON THE
WHEREABOUTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM IDA. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING IDA NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
THEN...AS THE H5 TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST...STEERS IDA
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF...PER THE CURRENT TPC TRACK. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS PER MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH SHOULD
DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS GEORGIA. MOISTENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS LARGE SFC HIGH
REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS GO DOWNHILL CONSIDERABLY MON-TUE AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND AFFECT THE AREA.
THROUGH 06Z MON...VFR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR BR AT THE
USUAL SPOTS...FTY...MCN...AHN IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THIS HAS
OCCURRED THE PAST TWO MORNINGS...AND WITH SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE
AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN CI...SCT250...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
TAF VALID PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EAST...SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM IDA DRIFTS NORTH. THE OTHER
ISSUE IS THE WIND DIRECTION. VERY WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. ATL
WIND HAS FLUCTUATED FROM SSW-SSE. HOWEVER...AFT SUNSET...SFC HIGH
DRIFTING EAST AND LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION RESPONDING TO IDA...EXPECT
FLOW TO BECOME MORE EAST AND REMAIN SO THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE ESE-ENE AFT 12Z
SUN...WITH SPEED APPROACHING 10KTS AT ATL SUN AFTERNOON.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 38 76 45 69 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
ATLANTA 45 74 50 68 55 / 0 0 0 10 50
BLAIRSVILLE 33 71 38 66 49 / 0 0 0 10 40
CARTERSVILLE 37 74 44 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
COLUMBUS 43 76 54 74 61 / 0 0 0 10 60
GAINESVILLE 42 72 48 68 53 / 0 0 0 10 40
MACON 38 76 49 74 59 / 0 0 0 10 60
ROME 35 73 42 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
PEACHTREE CITY 35 75 43 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
VIDALIA 47 79 56 76 60 / 0 0 0 10 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/49
000
FXUS62 KCHS 072352
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
652 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS...
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PATCHY
CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF INLAND MCINTOSH COUNTY
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING
WANES WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL
PROMOTE A STRONG RADIATIONAL SETUP AGAIN TONIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A RESIDUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
INLAND SURFACE HIGH AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT MORE MIXED. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SOME FROST FORMATION WELL INLAND TONIGHT
WHERE CO-OP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE
36-37 DEGREE RANGE IN A FEW SHELTERED POCKETS. THE GREATEST FROST
POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY NORTH OF A PERKINS-HILLTONIA-
CROCKETVILLE-SMOAKS LINE BUT ATTM WE BELIEVE ANY FROST THAT FORMS
WILL BE FAIRLY PATCHY. WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY
PER COORDINATION WITH WFO COLUMBIA...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL
CAREFULLY MONITOR TRENDS AS ANY LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA WILL NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND IDA WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS LOOK TO GO NO HIGHER
THAN 10-15 MPH. A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
BECOME ABSORBED THE THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME
AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS AS IT DISSIPATES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD
SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHALLOW CUMULUS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW HOURS OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
REACH IN THE MID-UPPER 70S PER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS EXCEPT
AT THE BEACHES WHERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL LIFT TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF
THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. INITIALLY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LACK OF ANY DEEP
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOULD PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
ROLLING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY...AND WITH BOTH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING
SWINGING INTO THE REGION...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALL AREA.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. STILL SOME TIMING
DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN FREE
FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH
OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT PROBABILITIES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN CALM WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS. NORTHEAST
WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY MORNING THEN
VEER TO AN EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW CUMULUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LLWS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND
AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SEAS 2 FT NEARSHORE
AND BUILDING TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT COULD LOCALLY VEER
EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PERSIST WITH SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS
OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN THE
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
WINDS/SEAS OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH
THURSDAY. HEADLINE THRESHOLDS MAY NOT BE REACHED IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG WIND
SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT DEPENDING
ON THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...GALE CONDITIONS
MAY BE REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 072327
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
627 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 30S...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
IN A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY SO WILL JUST ADVERTISE IN THE ZFP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
EACH DAY SO FORECAST TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST
ALONG WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S.
IDA. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA...BUT
MOISTURE AHEAD TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO GA/SC BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...STILL SOME QUESTION CONCERNING THE FUTURE
PATH OF T.S. IDA...BUT MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST
MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL BE ON TUESDAY. WILL GO
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE CSRA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
LATE TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY LATE
SATURDAY SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP BY THEN. FORECAST
TEMPS CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THREAT FOR FOG APPEARS HIGHER AT AGS AND OGB WHERE THE ADDED COOLING
AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER VALLEYS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR IFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR VISIBILITIES
FOR BRIEF PERIODS AT CAE AND CUB TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 072237 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS
WHERE DIFFERENCES BEGIN. ALL FOCUS IS ON THE FUTURE OF IDA. ECMWF
HAS HAD THE BEST RECORD OF THE MODELS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS WITH GFS COMING IN A CLOSE SECOND. WHILE BOTH MODELS DO
DIVERGE ON THE LOCATION OF IDA BY TUESDAY (WHICH IS IN THE LONG
TERM)...BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN THE H5 TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PICKING UP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND STREAMING
IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH K INDEX VALUES. BEING A
TROPICAL SYSTEM THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CAPES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SURFACE BASED LIFTED. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK OF IDA IS LOW...WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY.
.LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS IT HINGES ON THE
WHEREABOUTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM IDA. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING IDA NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
THEN...AS THE H5 TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST...STEERS IDA
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF...PER THE CURRENT TPC TRACK. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS PER MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH SHOULD
DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS GEORGIA. MOISTENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD AS LARGE SFC HIGH
REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS GO DOWNHILL CONSIDERABLY MON-TUE AS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA COMBINE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND AFFECT THE AREA.
THROUGH 06Z MON...VFR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR BR AT THE
USUAL SPOTS...FTY...MCN...AHN IN THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THIS HAS
OCCURRED THE PAST TWO MORNINGS...AND WITH SLOWLY INCREASING MOISTURE
AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN CI...SCT250...CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
TAF VALID PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS EAST...SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT...AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM IDA DRIFTS NORTH. THE OTHER
ISSUE IS THE WIND DIRECTION. VERY WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. ATL
WIND HAS FLUCTUATED FROM SSW-SSE. HOWEVER...AFT SUNSET...SFC HIGH
DRIFTING EAST AND LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION RESPONDING TO IDA...EXPECT
FLOW TO BECOME MORE EAST AND REMAIN SO THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE ESE-ENE AFT 12Z
SUN...WITH SPEED APPROACHING 10KTS AT ATL SUN AFTERNOON.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 38 76 45 69 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
ATLANTA 45 74 50 68 55 / 0 0 0 10 50
BLAIRSVILLE 33 71 38 66 49 / 0 0 0 10 40
CARTERSVILLE 37 74 44 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
COLUMBUS 43 76 54 74 61 / 0 0 0 10 60
GAINESVILLE 42 72 48 68 53 / 0 0 0 10 40
MACON 38 76 49 74 59 / 0 0 0 10 60
ROME 35 73 42 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
PEACHTREE CITY 35 75 43 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
VIDALIA 47 79 56 76 60 / 0 0 0 10 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17/19
000
FXUS62 KCHS 072050
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS...
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. PATCHY
CUMULUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF INLAND MCINTOSH COUNTY
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING
WANES WITH THE APPROACH OF SUNSET. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL
PROMOTE A STRONG RADIATIONAL SETUP AGAIN TONIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A RESIDUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
INLAND SURFACE HIGH AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH FORMING OFFSHORE
WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT MORE MIXED. EXPECT LOWS FROM THE
UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE BEACHES.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SOME FROST FORMATION WELL INLAND TONIGHT
WHERE CO-OP TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE
36-37 DEGREE RANGE IN A FEW SHELTERED POCKETS. THE GREATEST FROST
POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR ROUGHLY NORTH OF A PERKINS-HILLTONIA-
CROCKETVILLE-SMOAKS LINE BUT ATTM WE BELIEVE ANY FROST THAT FORMS
WILL BE FAIRLY PATCHY. WILL FORGO THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY
PER COORDINATION WITH WFO COLUMBIA...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL
CAREFULLY MONITOR TRENDS AS ANY LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES IN THIS
AREA WILL NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND IDA WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WINDS LOOK TO GO NO HIGHER
THAN 10-15 MPH. A WEAK AND DIFFUSE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL
BECOME ABSORBED THE THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME
AND WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS AS IT DISSIPATES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD
SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF SHALLOW CUMULUS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH A FEW HOURS OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM SAVANNAH SOUTH. HIGHS WILL
REACH IN THE MID-UPPER 70S PER LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS EXCEPT
AT THE BEACHES WHERE CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK TIME FRAME.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL LIFT TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS OF
THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. INITIALLY THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...LACK OF ANY DEEP
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOULD PRECLUDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER
ROLLING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH A RAIN FREE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY...AND WITH BOTH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING
SWINGING INTO THE REGION...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALL AREA.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE
TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. STILL SOME TIMING
DISCONTINUITIES IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO HOW QUICKLY THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE RAIN FREE
FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW THE POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH
OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS TO PUSH ONSHORE OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT PROBABILITIES
APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY FOR KCHS
AND KSAV. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS AN ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE INLAND
AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SEAS 2 FT NEARSHORE
AND BUILDING TO 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BUT COULD LOCALLY VEER
EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS. SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT WILL PERSIST WITH SEAS WILL BUILD TO
2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA OR THE REMNANTS
OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN THE
WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
WINDS/SEAS OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH
THURSDAY. HEADLINE THRESHOLDS MAY NOT BE REACHED IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS APPEAR FAIRLY
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG WIND
SURGE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT DEPENDING
ON THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
THE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...GALE CONDITIONS
MAY BE REACHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 071946
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 30S...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
IN A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE CSRA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY SO WILL JUST ADVERTISE IN THE ZFP. OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A BIT
EACH DAY SO FORECAST TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST
ALONG WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S.
IDA. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA...BUT
MOISTURE AHEAD TO THE SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO GA/SC BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...STILL SOME QUESTION CONCERNING THE FUTURE
PATH OF T.S. IDA...BUT MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST
MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL BE ON TUESDAY. WILL GO
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE CSRA. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
LATE TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES BY LATE
SATURDAY SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP BY THEN. FORECAST
TEMPS CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THREAT FOR
FOG APPEARS HIGHER AT AGS AND OGB WHERE THE ADDED COOLING AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER VALLEYS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR IFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 071923
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
223 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE NEAR TERM OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS
WHERE DIFFERENCES BEGIN. ALL FOCUS IS ON THE FUTURE OF IDA. ECMWF
HAS HAD THE BEST RECORD OF THE MODELS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS WITH GFS COMING IN A CLOSE SECOND. WHILE BOTH MODELS DO
DIVERGE ON THE LOCATION OF IDA BY TUESDAY (WHICH IS IN THE LONG
TERM)...BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE IN THE H5 TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PICKING UP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND STREAMING
IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH K INDEX VALUES. BEING A
TROPICAL SYSTEM THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CAPES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SURFACE BASED LIFTED. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK OF IDA IS LOW...WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE ON POPS
FOR MONDAY NIGHT GOING WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY.
.LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS IT HINGES ON THE
WHEREABOUTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM IDA. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING IDA NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
THEN...AS THE H5 TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST...STEERS IDA
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF...PER THE CURRENT TPC TRACK. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS PER MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH SHOULD
DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS GEORGIA. MOISTENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 38 76 45 69 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
ATLANTA 45 74 50 68 55 / 0 0 0 10 50
BLAIRSVILLE 33 71 38 66 49 / 0 0 0 10 40
CARTERSVILLE 37 74 44 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
COLUMBUS 43 76 54 74 61 / 0 0 0 10 60
GAINESVILLE 42 72 48 68 53 / 0 0 0 10 40
MACON 38 76 49 74 59 / 0 0 0 10 60
ROME 35 73 42 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
PEACHTREE CITY 35 75 43 71 53 / 0 0 0 10 50
VIDALIA 47 79 56 76 60 / 0 0 0 10 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
17
000
FXUS62 KCHS 071728
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1228 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIMIT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BEACH FRONT TO THE UPPER 60S WITH A
FEW MID 60S ALONG A FEW OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES. SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY PATCHY CUMULUS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INLAND...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATING AIRMASS WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INTO MONDAY LEADS TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THEN CONFIDENCE LOWERS A BIT THROUGH
MID WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TUE NIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW /TC IDA OR ITS
REMNANTS/ SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL YIELD INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY SO
HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE BUT DID NOT PULL POPS COMPLETELY JUST YET.
ALSO...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES /WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ AND THE AREA
BECOMES SITUATED IN A FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...MONDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY FOR KCHS
AND KSAV. WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS AN ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...CAUSING
NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS ANY GREATER
THAN 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...KEEPING
AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES /POSSIBLY TS IDA/ TRACKS N/NE OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEX. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW S AND E OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP B/W THE LOW AND A
BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS BY TUE AND GALES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
WED/WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 071726
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1226 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FOCUS REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST THROUGH 7AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
IN THE LOWER 30S. WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE COOLING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WILL REMAIN WITH THE FROST ADVISORY THROUGH 7AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM WITH SUNRISE AS SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SITUATION WILL REMAIN STATUS QUO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
APPLY TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH WILL END THE THREAT OF FROST. MONDAY
WILL SEE SOME CHANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS FROM TS IDA. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RAIN UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. MAIN ISSUE
IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TS IDA AND THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY
EXPECT THE FRONT TO KEEP IDA AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS IS
LOW. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THREAT FOR
FOG APPEARS HIGHER AT AGS AND OGB WHERE THE ADDED COOLING AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIVER VALLEYS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MVFR OR IFR FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07
000
FXUS62 KCHS 071446
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
946 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS WITH THE
MORNING UPDATE. QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE AGAIN TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
LIMIT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BEACH FRONT TO THE UPPER 60S WITH A
FEW MID 60S ALONG A FEW OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES. SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY PATCHY CUMULUS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INLAND...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATING AIRMASS WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INTO MONDAY LEADS TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THEN CONFIDENCE LOWERS A BIT THROUGH
MID WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TUE NIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW /TC IDA OR ITS
REMNANTS/ SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL YIELD INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY SO
HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE BUT DID NOT PULL POPS COMPLETELY JUST YET.
ALSO...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES /WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ AND THE AREA
BECOMES SITUATED IN A FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...MONDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
COULD ADVECT A FEW STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...CAUSING
NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS ANY GREATER
THAN 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...KEEPING
AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES /POSSIBLY TS IDA/ TRACKS N/NE OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEX. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW S AND E OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP B/W THE LOW AND A
BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS BY TUE AND GALES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
WED/WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
VERY MINOR FLOODING IN PARTS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 071403
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
903 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. A NEW SET OF ZONE
FORECASTS WILL BE SENT TO REMOVE THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE
WARNING HEADLINES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A MID/UPPER HIGH
IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY MONDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH
GEORGIA. PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MONDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS IT
HINGES ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA.
THE MODEL SPREAD IS CONSIDERABLE WITH THE NAM KEEPING IDA OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A MORE RAPID NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST BY THAT TIME. THE FORMER SCENARIO KEEPS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THE DRIEST...WHILE THAT LATTER/PREFERRED SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER WEDGE FRONT OVER US AND A
RESPECTABLE OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT OVER AT LEAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTH AS WELL ON TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST KEEPS IDA AND MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PER MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT
ACROSS GEORGIA. MOISTENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
RRH
AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SPOTTY FOG AT THE TYPICAL SITES...AHN MCN
FTY...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS 4-7KT
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. BUT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
AROUND WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND
BACK TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 40 75 47 70 / 0 0 0 5 10
ATLANTA 69 48 74 51 70 / 0 0 0 5 20
BLAIRSVILLE 66 35 71 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 70 36 73 46 68 / 0 0 0 5 20
COLUMBUS 73 46 78 56 74 / 0 0 0 5 20
GAINESVILLE 68 43 73 48 68 / 0 0 0 5 10
MACON 72 42 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 5 20
ROME 71 36 75 45 71 / 0 0 0 5 20
PEACHTREE CITY 71 34 75 44 69 / 0 0 0 5 20
VIDALIA 73 46 78 52 77 / 0 0 5 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20
000
FXUS62 KCHS 071247
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
747 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY
AS ITS CENTER GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THIS COULD ADVECT JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE INLAND TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY.
THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE...GENERALLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INLAND...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATING AIRMASS WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INTO MONDAY LEADS TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THEN CONFIDENCE LOWERS A BIT THROUGH
MID WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TUE NIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW /TC IDA OR ITS
REMNANTS/ SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL YIELD INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY SO
HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE BUT DID NOT PULL POPS COMPLETELY JUST YET.
ALSO...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES /WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ AND THE AREA
BECOMES SITUATED IN A FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...MONDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
COULD ADVECT A FEW STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...CAUSING
NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS ANY GREATER
THAN 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...KEEPING
AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES /POSSIBLY TS IDA/ TRACKS N/NE OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEX. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW S AND E OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP B/W THE LOW AND A
BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS BY TUE AND GALES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
WED/WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
JAQ/RJB
000
FXUS62 KCHS 071130
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
630 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY
AS ITS CENTER GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH.
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES...AND CALM WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE RESULTED IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED FROST IS EXPECTED FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...THUS NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY WHICH IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 8 AM THIS MORNING.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THIS COULD ADVECT JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE INLAND TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY.
THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE...GENERALLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INLAND...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATING AIRMASS WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INTO MONDAY LEADS TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THEN CONFIDENCE LOWERS A BIT THROUGH
MID WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TUE NIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW /TC IDA OR ITS
REMNANTS/ SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL YIELD INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY SO
HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE BUT DID NOT PULL POPS COMPLETELY JUST YET.
ALSO...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES /WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ AND THE AREA
BECOMES SITUATED IN A FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...MONDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
COULD ADVECT A FEW STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...CAUSING
NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS ANY GREATER
THAN 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...KEEPING
AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES /POSSIBLY TS IDA/ TRACKS N/NE OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEX. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW S AND E OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP B/W THE LOW AND A
BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS BY TUE AND GALES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
WED/WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114-115.
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
JAQ/RJB
000
FXUS62 KCAE 071126
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
626 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FOCUS REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST THROUGH 7AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
IN THE LOWER 30S. WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE COOLING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WILL REMAIN WITH THE FROST ADVISORY THROUGH 7AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM WITH SUNRISE AS SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SITUATION WILL REMAIN STATUS QUO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
APPLY TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH WILL END THE THREAT OF FROST. MONDAY
WILL SEE SOME CHANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS FROM TS IDA. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RAIN UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. MAIN ISSUE
IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TS IDA AND THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY
EXPECT THE FRONT TO KEEP IDA AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS IS
LOW. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS MAY
BE AT AGS AND OGB WHERE THE ADDED COOLING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIVER VALLEYS SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KFFC 071023 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A MID/UPPER HIGH
IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY MONDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH
GEORGIA. PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MONDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS IT
HINGES ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA.
THE MODEL SPREAD IS CONSIDERABLE WITH THE NAM KEEPING IDA OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A MORE RAPID NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST BY THAT TIME. THE FORMER SCENARIO KEEPS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THE DRIEST...WHILE THAT LATTER/PREFERRED SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER WEDGE FRONT OVER US AND A
RESPECTABLE OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT OVER AT LEAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTH AS WELL ON TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST KEEPS IDA AND MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PER MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT
ACROSS GEORGIA. MOISTENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
RRH
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SPOTTY FOG AT THE TYPICAL SITES...AHN MCN
FTY...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS 4-7KT
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. BUT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
AROUND WINDS MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON... AND
BACK TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 40 75 47 70 / 0 0 0 5 10
ATLANTA 69 48 74 51 70 / 0 0 0 5 20
BLAIRSVILLE 66 35 71 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 70 36 73 46 68 / 0 0 0 5 20
COLUMBUS 73 46 78 56 74 / 0 0 0 5 20
GAINESVILLE 68 43 73 48 68 / 0 0 0 5 10
MACON 72 42 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 5 20
ROME 71 36 75 45 71 / 0 0 0 5 20
PEACHTREE CITY 71 34 75 44 69 / 0 0 0 5 20
VIDALIA 73 46 78 52 77 / 0 0 5 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TOWNS...UNION.
&&
$$
07/TDP
000
FXUS62 KFFC 070920
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
420 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A MID/UPPER HIGH
IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST BY MONDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH
GEORGIA. PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEYOND MONDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS IT
HINGES ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA.
THE MODEL SPREAD IS CONSIDERABLE WITH THE NAM KEEPING IDA OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW A MORE RAPID NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST BY THAT TIME. THE FORMER SCENARIO KEEPS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THE DRIEST...WHILE THAT LATTER/PREFERRED SOLUTION OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER WEDGE FRONT OVER US AND A
RESPECTABLE OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT OVER AT LEAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
AND PERHAPS INTO THE NORTH AS WELL ON TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK FORECAST KEEPS IDA AND MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
PER MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT
ACROSS GEORGIA. MOISTENING SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS BACK IN ON FRIDAY.
RRH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 69 40 75 47 70 / 0 0 0 5 10
ATLANTA 69 48 74 51 70 / 0 0 0 5 20
BLAIRSVILLE 66 35 71 39 67 / 0 0 0 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 70 36 73 46 68 / 0 0 0 5 20
COLUMBUS 73 46 78 56 74 / 0 0 0 5 20
GAINESVILLE 68 43 73 48 68 / 0 0 0 5 10
MACON 72 42 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 5 20
ROME 71 36 75 45 71 / 0 0 0 5 20
PEACHTREE CITY 71 34 75 44 69 / 0 0 0 5 20
VIDALIA 73 46 78 52 77 / 0 0 5 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TOWNS...UNION.
&&
$$
07
000
FXUS62 KCAE 070855
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
355 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. MAIN FOCUS REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST THROUGH 7AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT MOST
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S WITH TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS
IN THE LOWER 30S. WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE COOLING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WILL REMAIN WITH THE FROST ADVISORY THROUGH 7AM.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM WITH SUNRISE AS SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SITUATION WILL REMAIN STATUS QUO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THIS WILL ALSO
APPLY TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH WILL END THE THREAT OF FROST. MONDAY
WILL SEE SOME CHANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS FROM TS IDA. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DO NOT
EXPECT ANY RAIN UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM. MAIN ISSUE
IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TS IDA AND THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY
EXPECT THE FRONT TO KEEP IDA AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
WITH FEW OTHER CHANGES AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS IS
LOW. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 070819
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA TODAY
AS ITS CENTER GRADUALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE DEEP SOUTH.
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES...AND CALM WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE RESULTED IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED FROST IS EXPECTED FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...THUS NO
CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ONGOING FROST ADVISORY WHICH IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 8 AM THIS MORNING.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THIS COULD ADVECT JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE INLAND TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL BE SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY.
THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
SLOWLY INCREASE...GENERALLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE LINGERS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INLAND...BUT TO WHAT EXTENT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATING AIRMASS WILL NOT ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S TOWARD THE COAST. AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT INTO MONDAY LEADS TO HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE...THEN CONFIDENCE LOWERS A BIT THROUGH
MID WEEK DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
IDA...OR ITS REMNANTS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE
THE HIGH BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TUE NIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW /TC IDA OR ITS
REMNANTS/ SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT WILL YIELD INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IS FOR LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY SO
HAVE FOLLOWED SUITE BUT DID NOT PULL POPS COMPLETELY JUST YET.
ALSO...AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES /WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ AND THE AREA
BECOMES SITUATED IN A FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...MONDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COULD
ADVECT A FEW STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AT KSAV...BUT NO CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...CAUSING
NORTHEAST WINDS TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS ANY GREATER
THAN 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT
ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...KEEPING
AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WITH WIND SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4
FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES /POSSIBLY TS IDA/ TRACKS N/NE OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEX. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TUE/TUE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE LOW S AND E OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL SET UP B/W THE LOW AND A
BUILDING HIGH PRES SYSTEM INLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS BY TUE AND GALES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
WED/WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114-115.
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
JAQ/RJB
000
FXUS62 KCHS 070535
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1235 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY CALM WINDS.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE END RESULT...WITH THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WE LOOK FOR AN
AVERAGE TEMP FALL OF ABOUT A DEGREE AN HOUR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOWEST TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE NEAR AND WEST OF US-17. WHILE WE
HAVE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FROST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
INTO CHARLESTON COUNTY AND ALSO INTO FAR NORTHERN BEAUFORT
COUNTY...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE COUNTIES IMPACTED BY OUR FROST
ADVISORY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY NW OF A
LINE FROM SHULERVILLE TO SUMMERVILLE TO JACKSONBORO AND RIDGELAND
IN SC...AND NW OF A LINE FROM RINCON TO CLAXTON AND REIDSVILLE IN
GA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE URBAN COMMUNITIES AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER...WHERE WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR.
NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST A N-NE BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST 15-20 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN INLAND...WITH MODERATING INFLUENCES FROM THE ATLANTIC.
LOOK FOR LOWEST READINGS AROUND 50 IN MANY AREAS EAST OF THE
INTRACOASTAL...BUT EVEN SOME LOWER TO MID 50S IN PLACES SUCH AS
FOLLY BEACH AND TYBEE ISLAND.
THERE WAS A LARGE PRESCRIBED BURN NEAR SHULERVILLE AGAIN EARLIER
TODAY...WHICH SHOWED UP NICELY ON IR 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND WAS ALSO VISIBLE IN THE DISTANT NE HORIZON FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. WE HAVE NOT YET HEARD FROM ANY FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
NEAR THAT SITE TO SEE IF ANY LINGERING SMOKE IS STILL
OCCURRING...AS THE BURN HAS LONG SINCE ENDED HAVING LAST SHOWN ON
SATELLITE AT 2015Z FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE AND THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE. COULD SEE A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER. BY MONDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF
POSSIBILITIES WITH RESPECT TO A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS LEAVE
QUITE A BIT TO BE DESIRED...GUIDANCE DOES AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
PUSHES THE STORM SYSTEM EASTWARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS
ISN/T AS STRONG AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AND STALLS THE STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD PERSISTENCE...AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL INCREASE
POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS A DECENT
RAIN EVENT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER TO
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FAVORED ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW THE SYSTEM PUSHING FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING AT BOTH
TERMINALS...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. A LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW COULD
ADVECT A FEW STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AT KSAV...BUT NO CEILINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SW
TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP SUBTLE PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AS NE WINDS REMAIN AS HIGH AS
AROUND 15 KT. THIS FAVORABLE FETCH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SEAS TO
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AT 5 FT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WE
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR AMZ374...AS THE HIGHEST REPORT OF SEAS WE
CAN FIND ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARINE AREA WOULD BE THE 5 FOOTERS AT
BUOY 41012 OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS...AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THE NEARSHORE WATERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WE MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114-115.
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 070520
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1220 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL REMAIN.
CURRENT OBS FOR BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FROST
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MOST AREAS WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE. HELD OFF ON UPGRADING TO A
FREEZE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT IF TEMPS DO FALL TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...THEY WILL BE THERE ONLY BRIEFLY AND QUICKLY REBOUND
ONCE THE SUN RISES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED...EXPECT FORECAST MIN TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE FA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK. WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECAST PATTERN BY
MIDWEEK. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS NOW SHOWS
THAT SOME COLD AIR DAMMING MAY OCCUR OVER THE SE STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATE WITH IDA...CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SOME
POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS TO THE FA WITH THE HELP OF A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER LATE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCAE 070343
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL REMAIN.
CURRENT OBS FOR BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS FOR CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FROST
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS MOST AREAS WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING BY SUNRISE. HELD OFF ON UPGRADING TO A
FREEZE WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THAT IF TEMPS DO FALL TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING...THEY WILL BE THERE ONLY BRIEFLY AND QUICKLY REBOUND
ONCE THE SUN RISES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LARGE AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WITH EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ANTICIPATED...EXPECT FORECAST MIN TEMPS TO DIP
INTO THE MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE FA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK. WILL CONTINUE
WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECAST PATTERN BY
MIDWEEK. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS NOW SHOWS
THAT SOME COLD AIR DAMMING MAY OCCUR OVER THE SE STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATE WITH IDA...CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SOME
POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS TO THE FA WITH THE HELP OF A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER LATE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO MONDAY. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BECOME POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 070321
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY CALM WINDS.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE END RESULT...WITH THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WE LOOK FOR AN
AVERAGE TEMP FALL OF ABOUT A DEGREE AN HOUR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOWEST TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE NEAR AND WEST OF US-17. WHILE WE
HAVE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FROST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
INTO CHARLESTON COUNTY AND ALSO INTO FAR NORTHERN BEAUFORT
COUNTY...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE COUNTIES IMPACTED BY OUR FROST
ADVISORY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY NW OF A
LINE FROM SHULERVILLE TO SUMMERVILLE TO JACKSONBORO AND RIDGELAND
IN SC...AND NW OF A LINE FROM RINCON TO CLAXTON AND REIDSVILLE IN
GA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE URBAN COMMUNITIES AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER...WHERE WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR.
NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST A N-NE BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AT LEAST 15-20 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN INLAND...WITH MODERATING INFLUENCES FROM THE ATLANTIC.
LOOK FOR LOWEST READINGS AROUND 50 IN MANY AREAS EAST OF THE
INTRACOASTAL...BUT EVEN SOME LOWER TO MID 50S IN PLACES SUCH AS
FOLLY BEACH AND TYBEE ISLAND.
THERE WAS A LARGE PRESCRIBED BURN NEAR SHULERVILLE AGAIN EARLIER
TODAY...WHICH SHOWED UP NICELY ON IR 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND WAS ALSO VISIBLE IN THE DISTANT NE HORIZON FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. WE HAVE NOT YET HEARD FROM ANY FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
NEAR THAT SITE TO SEE IF ANY LINGERING SMOKE IS STILL
OCCURRING...AS THE BURN HAS LONG SINCE ENDED HAVING LAST SHOWN ON
SATELLITE AT 2015Z FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE AND THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE. COULD SEE A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER. BY MONDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF
POSSIBILITIES WITH RESPECT TO A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS LEAVE
QUITE A BIT TO BE DESIRED...GUIDANCE DOES AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
PUSHES THE STORM SYSTEM EASTWARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS
ISN/T AS STRONG AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AND STALLS THE STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD PERSISTENCE...AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL INCREASE
POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS A DECENT
RAIN EVENT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER TO
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FAVORED ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW THE SYSTEM PUSHING FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE TOO DRY NOT ONLY FOR FOG...BUT ALSO FOR ANY CLOUDS.
THUS A VFR FORECAST WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. LITTLE TO
NO WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SE ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SW
TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP SUBTLE PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AS NE WINDS REMAIN AS HIGH AS
AROUND 15 KT. THIS FAVORABLE FETCH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SEAS TO
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AT 5 FT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WE
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR AMZ374...AS THE HIGHEST REPORT OF SEAS WE
CAN FIND ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARINE AREA WOULD BE THE 5 FOOTERS AT
BUOY 41012 OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS...AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THE NEARSHORE WATERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WE MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114-115.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS62 KCHS 070316
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1016 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY CALM WINDS.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE END RESULT...WITH THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WE LOOK FOR AN
AVERAGE TEMP FALL OF ABOUT A DEGREE AN HOUR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOWEST TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE NEAR AND WEST OF US-17. WHILE WE
HAVE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FROST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
INTO CHARLESTON COUNTY AND ALSO INTO FAR NORTHERN BEAUFORT
COUNTY...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE COUNTIES IMPACTED BY OUR FROST
ADVISORY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY NW OF A
LINE FROM SHULERVILLE TO SUMMERVILLE TO JACKSONBORO AND RIDGELAND
IN SC...AND NW OF A LINE FROM RINCON TO CLAXTON AND REIDSVILLE IN
GA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE URBAN COMMUNITIES AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER...WHERE WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR.
THERE WAS A LARGE PRESCRIBED BURN NEAR SHULERVILLE AGAIN EARLIER
TODAY...WHICH SHOWED UP NICELY ON IR 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGES...AND WAS ALSO VISIBLE IN THE DISTANT NE HORIZON FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. WE HAVE NOT YET HEARD FROM ANY FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS
NEAR THAT SITE TO SEE IF ANY LINGERING SMOKE IS STILL
OCCURRING...AS THE BURN HAS LONG SINCE ENDED HAVING LAST SHOWN ON
SATELLITE AT 2015Z FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE AND THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE. COULD SEE A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER. BY MONDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF
POSSIBILITIES WITH RESPECT TO A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS LEAVE
QUITE A BIT TO BE DESIRED...GUIDANCE DOES AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
PUSHES THE STORM SYSTEM EASTWARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS
ISN/T AS STRONG AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AND STALLS THE STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD PERSISTENCE...AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL INCREASE
POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS A DECENT
RAIN EVENT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER TO
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FAVORED ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW THE SYSTEM PUSHING FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE TOO DRY NOT ONLY FOR FOG...BUT ALSO FOR ANY CLOUDS.
THUS A VFR FORECAST WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. LITTLE TO
NO WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SE ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SW
TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP SUBTLE PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AS NE WINDS REMAIN AS HIGH AS
AROUND 15 KT. THIS FAVORABLE FETCH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SEAS TO
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AT 5 FT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WE
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR AMZ374...AS THE HIGHEST REPORT OF SEAS WE
CAN FIND ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARINE AREA WOULD BE THE 5 FOOTERS AT
BUOY 41012 OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS...AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THE NEARSHORE WATERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WE MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114-115.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS62 KCHS 070310
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1010 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY CALM WINDS.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE END RESULT...WITH THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WE LOOK FOR AN
AVERAGE TEMP FALL OF ABOUT A DEGREE AN HOUR THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOWEST TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE NEAR AND WEST OF US-17. WHILE WE
HAVE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FROST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
INTO CHARLESTON COUNTY AND ALSO INTO FAR NORTHERN BEAUFORT
COUNTY...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE COUNTIES IMPACTED BY OUR FROST
ADVISORY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF FROST WILL BE ROUGHLY NW OF A
LINE FROM SHULERVILLE TO SUMMERVILLE TO JACKSONBORO AND RIDGELAND
IN SC...AND NW OF A LINE FROM RINCON TO CLAXTON AND REIDSVILLE IN
GA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE URBAN COMMUNITIES AND LOCATIONS NEAR
LARGE BODIES OF WATER...WHERE WARMER TEMPS WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE AND THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE. COULD SEE A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER. BY MONDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF
POSSIBILITIES WITH RESPECT TO A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS LEAVE
QUITE A BIT TO BE DESIRED...GUIDANCE DOES AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
PUSHES THE STORM SYSTEM EASTWARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS
ISN/T AS STRONG AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AND STALLS THE STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD PERSISTENCE...AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL INCREASE
POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS A DECENT
RAIN EVENT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER TO
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FAVORED ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW THE SYSTEM PUSHING FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE TOO DRY NOT ONLY FOR FOG...BUT ALSO FOR ANY CLOUDS.
THUS A VFR FORECAST WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. LITTLE TO
NO WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SE ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING SW
TO THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL KEEP SUBTLE PINCHING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AS NE WINDS REMAIN AS HIGH AS
AROUND 15 KT. THIS FAVORABLE FETCH WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SEAS TO
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NIGHT...AT 5 FT OR LESS. AS A RESULT WE
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR AMZ374...AS THE HIGHEST REPORT OF SEAS WE
CAN FIND ANYWHERE NEAR THE MARINE AREA WOULD BE THE 5 FOOTERS AT
BUOY 41012 OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE TRACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS...AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THE NEARSHORE WATERS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
FLOODING WILL REMAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WE MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114-115.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS62 KFFC 070207 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
907 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
AND WINDS TO CATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
CLEAR SKIES WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ADEQUATE SURFACE MOISTURE AND NEAR CALM
OR LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN UNION AND TOWNS
COUNTIES SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THERE LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH THE DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...EXPECT A RAPID WARM-UP
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
USED OR LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MET
MOS HAS BEEN A BIT WARM LATELY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THREE CONCERNS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
MONDAY...TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PROGGED
TO MOVE NEAR WRN FL PANHANDLE TUES...AND REDEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK OF IDA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GOM.
00Z ECMWF JUST IN AND IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 00Z GFS/GEFS AND 00Z
GEM ON TRACK OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL LOW. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE SOURCE OF COPIOUS MOISTURE IN MODEL PROGS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BY TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE 24HR QPF OF 1 TO 2
IN. MODELS ALSO SHOW IDA AS CLOSED SFC LOW WITH SFC PRESSURE OF
1000-1008MB BY TUES. OTHER THAN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CAMPECHE
TROPICAL LOW... MAIN SIGNIFICANCE OF TWO FEATURES LIKELY JUST
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER NE SFC FLOW TUES AND WED.
THIS WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY. NHC PROGGING IDA TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PROGGED SHEAR. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF 12Z...18Z AND 00Z MODELS AND INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY ENVIRONMENT...HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR TUES. GFS AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING FRONT
AND SUBSIDENCE INTO THE AREA ON WED. HAVE SLOWED THIS TIMING DOWN
BUT STILL HAVE ONLY SLT CHC POPS FOR SE 1/2 OF CWA ON WED. REST OF
WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY FINE.
16
AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROBABLY SUNDAY TOO. LARGE SFC
HIGH ACROSS NC/SC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT
BACK WEST LATE SAT-EARLY SUN. ALOFT...A WEAK RIDGE WAS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID-SOUTH. EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS PRESENT
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH PWS LESS THAN 0.20 AND MEAN 1000-500MB RH
IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING RESULTING IN FEW250 NEAR THE TN
BORDER. OTHERWISE...SKC AND VFR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG AT AHN...MCN...FTY...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WORSE THAN 5SM...IF EVEN THAT MUCH. WINDS
REMAINING SE ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH...BUT GENERALLY CALM
OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION...WHERE NOT CALM AT NIGHT...WILL TREND
MORE TOWARD 90 DEGREES...THEN BACK MORE TOWARD 140 DURING THE
DAYTIME.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 37 70 39 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 5
ATLANTA 42 69 46 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 31 66 37 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 34 69 38 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 5
COLUMBUS 40 74 47 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 10
GAINESVILLE 39 68 43 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 5
MACON 34 72 41 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 5
ROME 35 71 38 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 33 71 35 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 5
VIDALIA 36 72 44 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TOWNS...UNION.
&&
$$
16/19/49
000
FXUS62 KCAE 070008
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
708 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
ANTICIPATED...EXPECT FORECAST MIN TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE MID
30S OVER MUCH OF THE FA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS
COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK. WILL CONTINUE WITH FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECAST PATTERN BY
MIDWEEK. GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS NOW SHOWS
THAT SOME COLD AIR DAMMING MAY OCCUR OVER THE SE STATES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATE WITH IDA...CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA MOVING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SOME
POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS TO THE FA WITH THE HELP OF A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS MAINLY
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER LATE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO MONDAY. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS COULD BECOME POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KCHS 062320
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
620 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
THINGS UNSETTLED DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES. AS A RESULT...FROST FORMATION APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS MOST INTERIOR ZONES...SO WILL KEEP THE FROST
ADVISORY IN PLACE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND EXPAND IT TO
INCLUDE JASPER...EFFINGHAM...EVANS...AND TATTNALL COUNTIES. CLOSER
TO THE COAST LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S...SO
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOW
LYING AREAS. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FROST TO SOME
ZONES CLOSER TO THE COAST AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT
ONSHORE AND THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE. COULD SEE A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THESE VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOLUTIONS THEN DIVERGING BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER. BY MONDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...AND ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN/T BE RULED OUT...PROBABILITIES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL
APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OFFERING UP A NUMBER OF
POSSIBILITIES WITH RESPECT TO A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS LEAVE
QUITE A BIT TO BE DESIRED...GUIDANCE DOES AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
PUSHES THE STORM SYSTEM EASTWARD AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GFS
ISN/T AS STRONG AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AND STALLS THE STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH
MAINTAINS GOOD PERSISTENCE...AND FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL INCREASE
POPS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS A DECENT
RAIN EVENT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER TO
FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FAVORED ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW THE SYSTEM PUSHING FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE TOO DRY NOT ONLY FOR FOG...BUT ALSO FOR ANY CLOUDS.
THUS A VFR FORECAST WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. LITTLE TO
NO WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SE ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
OR IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER THE
REGION...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WILL CONTINUE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS THEN REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE TRACK ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
GRADUALLY TIGHTEN UP SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LONG DURATION OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS...AND SEAS
MAY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THE
NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL REMAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114-115.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS62 KFFC 062240 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.
CLEAR SKIES WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ADEQUATE SURFACE MOISTURE AND NEAR CALM
OR LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST SO HAVE ISSUED A
FROST ADVISORY. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN UNION AND TOWNS
COUNTIES SO HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR THERE LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY.
WITH THE DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...EXPECT A RAPID WARM-UP
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
USED OR LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MET
MOS HAS BEEN A BIT WARM LATELY.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THREE CONCERNS IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA
MONDAY...TROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PROGGED
TO MOVE NEAR WRN FL PANHANDLE TUES...AND REDEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK OF IDA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GOM.
00Z ECMWF JUST IN AND IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH 00Z GFS/GEFS AND 00Z
GEM ON TRACK OF CAMPECHE TROPICAL LOW. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE SOURCE OF COPIOUS MOISTURE IN MODEL PROGS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BY TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE 24HR QPF OF 1 TO 2
IN. MODELS ALSO SHOW IDA AS CLOSED SFC LOW WITH SFC PRESSURE OF
1000-1008MB BY TUES. OTHER THAN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CAMPECHE
TROPICAL LOW... MAIN SIGNIFICANCE OF TWO FEATURES LIKELY JUST
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER NE SFC FLOW TUES AND WED.
THIS WILL INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY. NHC PROGGING IDA TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PROGGED SHEAR. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF 12Z...18Z AND 00Z MODELS AND INTERACTION WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY ENVIRONMENT...HAVE
BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR TUES. GFS AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING FRONT
AND SUBSIDENCE INTO THE AREA ON WED. HAVE SLOWED THIS TIMING DOWN
BUT STILL HAVE ONLY SLT CHC POPS FOR SE 1/2 OF CWA ON WED. REST OF
WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY FINE.
16
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AND PROBABLY SUNDAY TOO. LARGE SFC
HIGH ACROSS NC/SC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ACTUALLY BEGIN TO DRIFT
BACK WEST LATE SAT-EARLY SUN. ALOFT...A WEAK RIDGE WAS DRIFTING
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MID-SOUTH. EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS PRESENT
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH PWS LESS THAN 0.20 AND MEAN 1000-500MB RH
IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING RESULTING IN FEW250 NEAR THE TN
BORDER. OTHERWISE...SKC AND VFR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD. WILL NEED
TO WATCH FOR RADIATIONAL GROUND FOG AT AHN...MCN...FTY...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WORSE THAN 5SM...IF EVEN THAT MUCH. WINDS
REMAINING SE ON BACK SIDE OF SFC HIGH...BUT GENERALLY CALM
OVERNIGHT. WIND DIRECTION...WHERE NOT CALM AT NIGHT...WILL TREND
MORE TOWARD 90 DEGREES...THEN BACK MORE TOWARD 140 DURING THE
DAYTIME.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 37 70 39 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 5
ATLANTA 42 69 46 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 5
BLAIRSVILLE 31 66 37 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 5
CARTERSVILLE 34 69 38 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 5
COLUMBUS 43 74 47 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 10
GAINESVILLE 39 68 43 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 5
MACON 36 72 41 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 5
ROME 35 71 38 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 5
PEACHTREE CITY 33 71 35 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 5
VIDALIA 36 72 44 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BUTTS...CARROLL...
CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...
COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...
FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MURRAY...
NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TROUP...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES...WILKINSON.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TOWNS...UNION.
&&
$$
16/19
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