000
FXHW60 PHFO 250131
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL INCREASE THE
TRADE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS RIDING THE TRADES WILL
BE FOCUSED ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-LATITUDES WILL DIRECT A SURFACE HIGH
EASTWARD ALONG 35N TO NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER TRADES STARTING
TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
RUNNING WEST TO EAST DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP THE MARINE
LAYER AT A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW 6000 FEET...WHICH TRANSLATES TO MOSTLY
LIGHT TRADE SHOWERS. THE HIGH WILL PROCEED TO THE EAST...BUT A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OF THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
LOCALLY BRISK TRADES THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PASS OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL THEN MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SAY THAT THE TROUGH WILL SLIGHTLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS RESULTING IN WEAKER SUBSIDENCE AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER...WHICH IN TURN COULD INCREASE THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY
OF THE TRADE SHOWERS. THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CALLS
FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS. LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY
UNLIKELY.

FINALLY...MODELS...THOUGH NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT...SUGGEST THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. AT
THIS POINT IN TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. WE WILL GET A BETTER FEEL
FOR THIS SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI. BASED
ON THE EXPECTED SWELL DIRECTION OF 320 DEGREES...WE DO NOT EXPECT
THAT SURF WILL REACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR NORTH OR WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
THE SWELL WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASE...BUT SURF
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL AND FOR INCREASING TRADE WINDS STARTING TONIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EFFECTIVE TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH SURF WARNING EFFECTIVE TONIGHT FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI.

&&

$$

CRAIG

000
ATHW40 PHFO 250034
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC TUE NOV 25 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 25 2009

LOW CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SINCE
DAYBREAK. ON KAUAI...LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE BIG ISLAND...WITH A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF
THE GARDEN ISLE. CLOUDS REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON
OAHU...AND HAVE FORMED OVER THE WAIANAE RANGE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE HALAWA VALLEY ON MAUI
THIS AFTERNOON. JUST A FEW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER LANAI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ON MAUI...CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS...AND THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA...AND THESE CLOUDS EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST COVERING
PORTIONS OF KAHOOLAWE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED OVER
THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI SINCE DAYBREAK. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE
SLOPES OF THE KAU DISTRICT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLOUD BAND DEPICTING A COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 370
MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD BAND/S EDGE IS
ALONG A ROUGH LINE FROM 40N 138W TO 26N 162W TO 24N 180.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS...THIS AREA HAS EXPANDED...AND AS OF 2PM EXTENDS
FROM 142W TO 165W BETWEEN 4N AND 10N.

$$

000
FXHW60 PHFO 241958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL INCREASE THE TRADE
WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS RIDING THE TRADES WILL BE
FOCUSED ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-LATITUDES WILL DIRECT A SURFACE HIGH
EASTWARD ALONG 35N TO NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER TRADES STARTING
WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
RUNNING WEST TO EAST DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP THE MOIST
MARINE LAYER AT A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW 6000 FEET...WHICH TRANSLATES TO
MOSTLY LIGHT TRADE SHOWERS. THE HIGH WILL PROCEED TO THE EAST...BUT
A HEFTY SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OF THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK TRADES THROUGH FRIDAY.

A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BE OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST THIS WEEKEND. MODELS SAY THAT THE TROUGH WILL SLIGHTLY
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS RESULTING IN WEAKER SUBSIDENCE AND A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER...WHICH IN TURN MAY INCREASE THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY
OF THE TRADE SHOWERS. HOPEFULLY...THE FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT THIS.
LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

FINALLY...MODELS...THOUGH NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT...SUGGEST THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. AT
THIS POINT IN TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. WE WILL GET A BETTER FEEL
FOR THIS SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT. A HIGH SURF
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND NORTH FACING SHORES
OF MAUI. BASED ON THE FORECAST SWELL DIRECTION OF 320 DEGREES...WE
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SURF REACHING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR NORTH OR
WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT SURF
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL AND THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS STARTING TONIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EFFECTIVE TONIGHT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.

&&

$$

CRAIG

000
ATHW40 PHFO 241840
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC TUE NOV 24 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS CONCENTRATED ALONG A LINE FROM 9N 143W TO 6N 166W WITH CLOUD
TOPS REACHING NEAR 55 THOUSAND FEET.

A COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 425 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS DEPICTING THE FRONT LIE ALONG A LINE
FROM 40N 140W TO 32N 150W TO 26N 164W TO 25N 178W.

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF KAUAI. BROKEN CLOUDS ARE OVER THE KOOLAU
MOUNTAINS ON OAHU. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
HALAWA VALLEY ON MOLOKAI. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE OVER LANAI. ON
MAUI...LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST
MAUI MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA. ON THE
BIG ISLAND...LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
KOHALA MOUNTAINS...AND SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SOUTH HILO AND
PUNA DISTRICTS.

$$

000
FXHW60 PHFO 241400
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE ALOHA STATE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TRADES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW SURFACE HIGH PASSING
FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN TRADE
WIND SPEEDS FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS CARRIED BY
THE TRADES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT EXPECT A FEW TRADE SHOWERS TO BE CARRIED LEEWARD
ON SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WESTERN END OF A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES NORTH
OF HONOLULU. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE IS SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE WEST AS A NEARBY SURFACE FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING
MODERATE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE THAT RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE WAS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS AT MOST LAND STATIONS WERE VERY
LIGHT. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LARGEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE 12 HOUR
PERIOD ENDING AT 200 AM HST THIS MORNING BY ISLAND WERE...0.11
INCHES AT WAINIHA AND MOUNT WAIALEALE ON KAUAI...0.01 INCHES AT
WAIMANALO ON OAHU...0.03 INCHES AT PUU KUKUI ON MAUI...AND 0.23
INCHES AT MOUNTAIN VIEW ON THE BIG ISLAND.

THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WAS MENTIONED ABOVE...IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT WHEN IT REACHES
A POINT ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. AT THE SAME TIME...A 1031 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE FAR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS HIGH TO
TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO INCREASE OUR TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS TONIGHT. THESE STRONGER TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHENS ALONG A TRACK FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. BASED ON THE PRESENT GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...MAY HAVE THE STRONGEST TRADES.
SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS...ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAY INCREASE TO
NEAR THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 30 MPH IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER LOCATIONS ON LAND...SUCH AS NEAR SOUTH POINT AND ALONG
RIDGES AND DOWNSLOPING SECTIONS OF THE KOHALA DISTRICTS ON THE BIG
ISLAND.

THE TRADES WILL WEAKEN TO MODERATE SPEEDS FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WHEN THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRADES WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY WHEN YET ANOTHER HIGH PASSES BY FAR
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE.

SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO A POSITION OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE MAY ENHANCE THE SHOWER COVERAGE SLIGHTLY BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STRONGER
TRADES MAY ALSO CARRY A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO SOME LEEWARD
SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. NOTE...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN HAS
AIMED A NEW VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS
LARGE OPEN OCEAN SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE ISLANDS
TONIGHT...WITH SURF HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE ABRUPTLY BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST SURF HEIGHTS
RESULTING FROM THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF WARNING
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...AND
MOLOKAI...AS WELL AS NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI. BASED ON THE
FORECAST SWELL DIRECTION OF 320 DEGREES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SURF
HEIGHTS REACHING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD ALONG NORTH OR
WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SWELL AND ITS POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT SURF
HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

THE NEW LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL...ALONG WITH INCREASING TRADE WIND
SPEEDS...WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SCA...FOR MOST HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING THE
CHANNELS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS SCA IS ISSUED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE LATER THIS MORNING...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

HOUSTON

000
ATHW40 PHFO 241200
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1200 UTC TUE NOV 24 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1130 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2009

CONDITIONS ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN
THIS EARLY MORNING.  HOWEVER...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...SOME WITH
EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...ARE OCCASIONALLY IMPACTING WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SECTIONS ON THE INDIVIDUAL ISLES.  THIS HAS ESPECIALLY BEEN
THE CASE IN KAUAI...LANAI...EAST MAUI...AND THE HILO AND PUNA
DISTRICTS ON THE BIG ISLAND.  LOW CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE EAST TO
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST NEAR 15 MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE.

A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EXISTS UPWIND
FROM THE ISLES...MOST PARTICULARLY FROM OAHU EASTWARD.  A MUCH
SMALLER CLUSTER OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS IS JUST
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF KAUAI.  ALSO...PLUMES ARE CAUSING LOW
CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHWEST OF LANAI.  SKIES ARE OTHERWISE CLEAR
TO SCATTERED IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH A COLD FRONT
IS 450 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...AND HAS MOVED TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH OVER THE PAST SEVEN HOURS.  MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
30N157W TO 27N166W TO 25.5N180.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
FAR SOUTH OF HAWAII SINCE LAST EVENING...AND IT HAS MARGINALLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD.  MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW
LOCATED WITHIN 120 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N140W TO
06N161.5W TO 02.5N171W.  MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 10N179W TO 04N172W TO 01N171W.

$$

KINEL

000
FXHW60 PHFO 240632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE ALOHA STATE WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TRADES THROUGH TUESDAY. A NEW SURFACE HIGH PASSING FAR
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN TRADE WIND
SPEEDS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
TRADES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT A FEW TRADE SHOWERS WILL BE CARRIED LEEWARD ON SOME OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE WESTERN END OF A SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED ABOUT 310 MILES NORTH
OF HONOLULU. THIS RIDGE IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM THE WEST AS A
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATE THAT TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS JUST EAST OF MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND...SO SOME SHOWERS WILL AFFECT WINDWARD FACING
SLOPES AND TERRAIN ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
WINDWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

RAINFALL WAS VERY SPARSE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE TODAY. FOR
EXAMPLE...THE LARGEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE 12 HOUR PERIOD ENDING
AT 500 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON BY ISLAND WERE...0.16 INCHES AT MOUNT
WAIALEALE ON KAUAI...0.12 INCHES AT OAHU FOREST NWR...0.30 INCHES AT
PUU KUKUI ON MAUI...AND 0.26 INCHES AT MOUNTAIN VIEW ON THE BIG
ISLAND.

THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH WAS MENTIONED EARLIER...IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT
REACHES A POINT ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. AT THE SAME TIME...A
1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE FAR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
STATE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS HIGH
TO TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO INCREASE OUR TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SPEEDS TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONGER TRADES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST ALONG A TRACK FAR NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE TRADES WILL RETURN TO MODERATE SPEEDS FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WHEN THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRADES WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY WHEN YET ANOTHER HIGH PASSES BY FAR
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE.

SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS WEEK. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TO A POSITION OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE
MAY ENHANCE THE SHOWER COVERAGE SLIGHTLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STRONGER TRADES MAY ALSO CARRY A
FEW OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO SOME LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. NOTE...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE WAIMEA BAY BUOY INDICATE THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT HAS DECREASED TO NEAR 5 FEET WITH A DOMINANT
WAVE PERIOD OF 14-15 SECONDS FROM AN AZIMUTH OF 320 DEGREES. THIS
INDICATES SURF ALONG ALL NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AS OF 700 PM HST.

A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN HAS
AIMED A NEW VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN. TWO
SURFACE LOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GENERATION OF THIS NEW SWELL WERE
MORE THAN 1600 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF HONOLULU EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE ISLANDS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SURF HEIGHTS FORECAST TO RISE ABRUPTLY BY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST SURF HEIGHTS
RESULTING FROM THIS SWELL WILL LIKELY REQUIRE HIGH SURF WARNINGS
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...AND
MOLOKAI...AS WELL AS NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI. BASED ON THE
FORECAST SWELL DIRECTION OF 320 DEGREES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SURF
HEIGHTS REACHING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD ALONG NORTH OR
WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED AT 315 PM HST WITH
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SWELL AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON
THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT SURF HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NEW LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL...ALONG WITH INCREASING TRADE WIND
SPEEDS...WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...SCA...FOR MOST HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING THE
CHANNELS...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE THIS SCA IS ISSUED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MANY
MARINE ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

HOUSTON

000
ATHW40 PHFO 240500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC TUE NOV 24 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2009

SKIES ARE PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EARLY EVENING.
THE LIMITED AREAS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS ON THE INDIVIDUAL ISLES...AND EVEN THESE
CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS OF BULLETIN TIME.  LOW CLOUD
MOTION IS FROM THE EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH
ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE.

EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF KAUAI...
CONDITIONS ARE CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT IS AROUND 500 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF KAUAI...AND HAS BEEN HEADING SOUTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.  MOST OF THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH THE
BOUNDARY ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM 30N159W TO 27N170W TO
26N180.

IN THE UPPER AIR...THE AXIS OF A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
TROUGH IS 800 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY TO THE EAST.  THE AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM 26N136W TO 20N141W
TO 15N146W.  A SWATH OF HIGH CLOUDS...MUCH DIMINISHED IN AREAL
EXTENT FROM YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...IS LOCATED EAST OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY ALOFT WEST OF THE SYSTEM...
INCLUDING OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

ONLY LIMITED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE FAR SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.  AS OF THIS WRITING...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 120 MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.5N152.5W TO 06N161W TO 02N168W.  MORE
ACTIVITY IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF 05N WEST OF 174W.

$$

KINEL

000
FXHW60 PHFO 240140
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE TRADES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST LOGIC OR ILLOGIC FROM THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. JUST FORGOT TO MENTION IN THAT DISCUSSION THAT AROUND
MID-WEEK THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS...PER THE GFS
MODEL. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...PLUS
THE EVER-PRESENT CORIOLIS EFFECT TURNING THE WINDS TO THE RIGHT...
MEANS MORE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN AN EAST-MOVING HIGH PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT GOES. THE
TRADES WILL RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN THE
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN PICK UP AGAIN WHEN YET
ANOTHER HIGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWERS
NEAR KAUAI NEXT SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RANDOM...
FAVORING THE USUAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS WITH AN EXPOSURE TO
THE EAST WINDS. THE ABSENCE OF A DESTABILIZING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR
LOW MEANS THAT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS TUESDAY THEN RISE ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
SECOND ROUND OF SURF COULD REQUIRE HIGH SURF WARNINGS FOR NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THEREAFTER...BUT
SURF MAY REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES
OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

CRAIG

000
ATHW40 PHFO 240039
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC MON NOV 24 2009

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2009

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEDGE OF VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO LARGE SCALE
SINKING MOTION OVER THE ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SPRAWLING
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CENTERED WEST OF THE ISLANDS. A RELATIVE MINIMA IN
TRADE WIND CUMULUS /CU/ AND STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ IS NOTED IN THE LOW
LEVELS BENEATH THIS AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT AN
AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER WINDWARD WATERS OF THE
ISLANDS HAS DECREASED.

LARGE SCALE VIEW OF THE TROPICAL CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC SHOWS THAT
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE IN AREA OF RELATIVELY FEW CLOUDS...
WITH LOW CLOUD MOTIONS OUTLINING THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS LOCATED NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF KAUAI. THIS RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS...AND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SHUNTED SOUTHWARD...AND THE HIGH
EASTWARD...DUE TO A SOUTHEAST-MOVING FRONTAL CLOUD BAND ABOUT 700
MILES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...AND IT/S POWERFUL EASTWARD-MOVING
PARENT LOW WELL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF BROKEN CU AND SC THAT WAS OVER WINDWARD WATERS OF THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE...WITH ONLY A SMALL
AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU LOCATED OVER WATERS NORTH OF OAHU
AND EAST OF KAUAI. ASIDE FROM A NARROW PLUME CLOUD EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM NIIHAU...SKIES OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS ARE
NEARLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER IS SEEN
EAST OF 155W...BUT THESE SCATTERED SMALL FAIR WEATHER CU APPEAR TO
CONTAIN LITTLE...IF ANY...IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...WITH THIS
MEAGER LOW CLOUD COVER EXTENDING EAST OF 150W TO NEAR 145W.

ON KAUAI...SCATTERED CU ARE OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES...WHILE
COASTAL AND LEEWARD AREAS ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. ON OAHU...THE KOOLAU
RANGE HAS BROKEN CU COVERAGE THAT IS TYPICAL FOR TRADE WIND FLOW...
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU OVER THE CENTRAL PLATEAU...AND ISOLATED
CU OVER LEEWARD AREAS. THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY HAVE A TYPICAL
TRADE WIND DISTRIBUTION OF LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BROKEN
CU ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI...AND BROKEN CU
OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF HALEAKALA SPREADING WESTWARD OVER
KAHOOLAWE AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE LANAI...WHERE
LOW CLOUDS ARE FEWER THAN NORMAL...AND SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE
BIG ISLAND/S LEEWARD COAST AND SLOPES ARE UNUSUALLY SUNNY FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED SC OVER THE SLOPES. OVERCAST SC
ARE OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE HAMAKUA AND HILO DISTRICTS...AND
OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE KAU DISTRICT.

$$

BIRCHARD

000
FXHW60 PHFO 232014
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MOVE EAST...AND THE TRADE WINDS
WILL BE AT MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN THE TRADES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...PLUS
THE EVER-PRESENT CORIOLIS EFFECT TURNING THE WINDS TO THE RIGHT...
MEANS MORE TRADE WINDS THIS WEEK. THE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE A
LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN AN EAST-MOVING HIGH PASSES
TO OUR NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT GOES. THE
TRADES WILL RETURN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN THE
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN PICK UP AGAIN WHEN YET
ANOTHER HIGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME ORGANIZATION TO THE SHOWERS
NEAR KAUAI THIS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RANDOM...
FAVORING THE USUAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS WITH AN EXPOSURE TO
THE EAST WINDS. THE ABSENCE OF A DESTABILIZING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR
LOW MEANS THAT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THIS WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SURF ALONG SELECT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THEN RISE ABRUPTLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
ROUND OF SURF MAY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF WARNING FOR WAVES EXCEEDING 25
FEET WEDNESDAY. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THEREAFTER. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST SHORES
OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

CRAIG

000
FXHW60 PHFO 231331
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST
ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS TO START THE WEEK.
TRADES WILL INCREASE AGAIN MID WEEK. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TO WRAP UP THE NIGHT
SHIFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WINDWARD FOCUSED MONDAY WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. KEPT WINDWARD AREAS AT POP 30-40 AT THE MOST
TOMORROW. LOOKING UPSTREAM TOWARDS THE EAST THERE IS AN AXIS OF
HIGHER PWAT/RH THAT COULD BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS TO WINDWARD
ZONES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. DID INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT POP INCREASE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. TRADES WILL BE A HAIR LIGHTER TO GET
THE WORK WEEK STARTED DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THEY
WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID WEEK AND HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 800 PM HST SUNDAY NIGHT/
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BENIGN TRADE WIND
PATTERN FROM THE DAY SHIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHEAR AXIS OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SOME MINOR INSTABILITY WELL ABOVE 15 KFT...WHICH IS
WELL OUT OF REACH OF THE LOCALLY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE WELL CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY REVEALS
GENERALLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM WITH HAWAII...WHICH IS SITTING JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RICH TROPICAL ITCZ MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY GRAZE THE STATE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...THIS WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SHOWERS KEEPING THEM WINDWARD TERRAIN FOCUSED MID WEEK.

TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST IS DISPLACED FURTHER EAST BY AN
AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MID LATITUDE FLOW WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE USHERING IN HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AGAIN BY MID WEEK ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE EQUATORWARD REACH OF
ANY ATTENDANT FRONTAL ACTIVITY. REGARDLESS OF FLUCTUATING BATCHES
OF MOISTURE PASSING IN THE TRADES THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. SURF WILL REMAIN
SOLID INTO TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY THEN.
THE SURF ALONG NORTH FACING BEACHES/REEFS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ABRUPTLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A HIGH SURF
WARNING FOR WAVES EXCEEDING 25 FEET ON THE FACE BY WEDNESDAY WITH A
SLOW DECREASE TO FOLLOW THEREAFTER. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES.

SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL SEE CONTINUED WAIST TO SHOULDER HIGH
SOUTHERN HEMI SWELL TODAY. A DECREASING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. MODEST SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL APPEAR DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY HITTING THE CHEST HIGH MARK
ALONG THE BETTER EXPOSED REEFS/BEACHES.

THE SURF FORECAST PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
300 PM HST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE CALL FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY WITH
GENERALLY DRY TRADE WINDS CONTINUING. PHNY WILL COULD SEE THE USUAL
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON DUE THE TO THE FIELD
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING
CONFINED TO WINDWARD TERRAIN.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

&&

$$

DEJESUS

000
FXHW60 PHFO 230556
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST
ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DROP TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY THIS WEEK.
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MID WEEK. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ON WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE BENIGN TRADE WIND
PATTERN FROM THE DAY SHIFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHEAR AXIS OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SOME MINOR INSTABILITY WELL ABOVE 15 KFT...WHICH IS
WELL OUT OF REACH OF THE LOCALLY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE WELL CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER. BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY REVEALS
GENERALLY DRY AIR UPSTREAM WITH HAWAII...WHICH IS SITTING JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RICH TROPICAL ITCZ MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY GRAZE THE STATE LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...THIS WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SHOWERS KEEPING THEM WINDWARD TERRAIN FOCUSED MID WEEK.

TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST IS DISPLACED FURTHER EAST BY AN
AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO THE NORTH. MID LATITUDE FLOW WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE USHERING IN HEIGHT RISES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AGAIN BY MID WEEK ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE EQUATORWARD REACH OF
ANY ATTENDANT FRONTAL ACTIVITY. REGARDLESS OF FLUCTUATING BATCHES
OF MOISTURE PASSING IN THE TRADES THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PLEASANT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 PM HST SATURDAY/
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY HAS BEEN SPARSE...MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWER CLOUDS
UPWIND...WHICH IS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...THAT MAY COME ASHORE LATER TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS WOULD BE
LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN LAST NIGHT. AFTERNOON BALLOON SOUNDINGS ARE
STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST KAUAI AND
NIIHAU...AS WELL AS NORTH SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI RUNS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

LARGER SURF IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURF ALONG
NORTH FACING SHORES COULD REACH OR EXCEED THE 25 FOOT WARNING LEVEL
MARK FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DROP SLOWLY INTO THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ADVISORY LEVEL SWELL
OVER THE WEEKEND.

SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL SEE CONTINUED WAIST TO SHOULDER HIGH
SOUTHERN HEMI SWELL MONDAY. A DECREASING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. MODEST SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL APPEAR DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY HITTING THE CHEST HIGH MARK
ALONG THE BETTER EXPOSED REEFS/BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. TRADE
WINDS WILL FOCUS -SHRA OVER WINDWARD/MT TERRAIN OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
END TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS/VIS. PHNY WILL COULD SEE THE USUAL
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE THE TO THE FIELD
ELEVATION. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/AVIATION...DEJESUS
MARINE...DEJESUS/HOAG
PREVIOUS...HOAG