000
FXUS63 KDMX 082338 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LO PRES CROSSING NWRN IA WILL LFT NEWD TNGT WITH ASSOCD CDFNT
SWINGING ACRS THE STATE OVR NGT.  LTL MORE THAN A WNDSHFT IS XPCTD
WITH THE FNT AS SIG LOW LVL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TNGT.  WILL
SEE AN INC IN CLDS OVR NGT...BUT ONLY AC AND CI.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING ISSUES.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER IS SLOWLY MOVING
NE AND THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT ON TIME...ENTERING THE NORTHWEST AT 3
PM.  THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THE EXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY HELD TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE STATE BUT WE WILL STEADILY BECOME OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXTREMELY DRY...IN THE
30S WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S.  HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.  THE
MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT IN EJECTING A SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHERN U.S. ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER ONLY SKIM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AND LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AT THAT.  I HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP MONDAY.  I REMOVED MORNING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IS THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING ENOUGH WITH IT TO PRODUCE
PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL NEED TO COME INTO
PLAY AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTERNOON.  I ALSO
TRIMMED POPS BACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THIS.  I DID HOWEVER BEEF UP
POPS AND QPF IN THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT
SHOULD SEE RAIN DEVELOP AND PROBABLY SOME THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN SOME
WEAK SHEAR AND CAPES OF 400-500 J/KG.  A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY OF
THIS MAGNITUDE IN THE SPRING WOULD BE EXPLOSIVE.  THE ONLY THING IS
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LARGELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CATCHES UP.

THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.  TEMPS WILL BE 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF THINGS
UNRESOLVED WHICH MAKES FORECASTING THE NEXT SYSTEM VERY DIFFICULT.
ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE GAINING CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
DIGGING AND WILL BE SLOWING THINGS DOWN.  THIS WAS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...THE SPLIT FLOW NOW SEEMS TO BE PLAYING MORE OF
A ROLE IN THE OUTCOME AND NEITHER THE GFS...EURO OR CANADIAN MODELS
AGREE ON ANYTHING...OTHER THAN WE WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE GFS AND EURO BOTH PULL THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR NW BUT THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS WHERE THE
EURO DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER NE IA AND THE CANADIAN KEEPS THE LOW WAY
TO THE SOUTH...OVER MISSOURI.  THIS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS MORE OF A BLEND OF THE EURO AND GFS WITH
MORE WEIGHT BEING GIVEN TO THE GFS AT THIS POINT.  IT HAD A BETTER
IDEA OF THE SOLUTION YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT.
TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED IN THE NW FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS INTRODUCED CWA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  IF THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ITS SOLUTION THOUGH THEN PRECIP
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER.  TEMPS IN THE MEANTIME
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A WEAK
COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN RAPIDLY BEHIND FROM THE NORTHWEST THE FRONT
AND MOVE ROUGHLY ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER ON MONDAY. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH
SCATTERED CIGS AROUND FL035-045 ATTM. EXPECT THESE TO AFFECT TAF
SITES AT TIMES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...WITH A
FEW BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY VFR HEIGHTS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGES ADVERTISED IN 00Z TAFS ARE FOR
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AS CURRENT SSW WINDS WHEEL AROUND TO NW
LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN NE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 09
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...LEE

000
FXUS63 KDMX 082131
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LO PRES CROSSING NWRN IA WILL LFT NEWD TNGT WITH ASSOCD CDFNT
SWINGING ACRS THE STATE OVR NGT.  LTL MORE THAN A WNDSHFT IS XPCTD
WITH THE FNT AS SIG LOW LVL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TNGT.  WILL
SEE AN INC IN CLDS OVR NGT...BUT ONLY AC AND CI.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR
TIMING ISSUES.  LOW PRESSURE OVER THE IA/MN BORDER IS SLOWLY MOVING
NE AND THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT ON TIME...ENTERING THE NORTHWEST AT 3
PM.  THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.
THE EXPECTED INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY HELD TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE STATE BUT WE WILL STEADILY BECOME OVERCAST OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE EXTREMELY DRY...IN THE
30S WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S.  HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S.  THE
MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT IN EJECTING A SHORTWAVE UP FROM THE
SOUTHERN U.S. ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER ONLY SKIM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE AND LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AT THAT.  I HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP MONDAY.  I REMOVED MORNING CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IS THE FRONT WILL NOT BRING ENOUGH WITH IT TO PRODUCE
PRECIP.  THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX WILL NEED TO COME INTO
PLAY AND THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTERNOON.  I ALSO
TRIMMED POPS BACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THIS.  I DID HOWEVER BEEF UP
POPS AND QPF IN THE FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS LOCATIONS NEAR THE FRONT
SHOULD SEE RAIN DEVELOP AND PROBABLY SOME THUNDER AS WELL GIVEN SOME
WEAK SHEAR AND CAPES OF 400-500 J/KG.  A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY OF
THIS MAGNITUDE IN THE SPRING WOULD BE EXPLOSIVE.  THE ONLY THING IS
THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LARGELY THROUGH THE CWA BEFORE
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CATCHES UP.

THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.  TEMPS WILL BE 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF THINGS
UNRESOLVED WHICH MAKES FORECASTING THE NEXT SYSTEM VERY DIFFICULT.
ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE GAINING CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
DIGGING AND WILL BE SLOWING THINGS DOWN.  THIS WAS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...THE SPLIT FLOW NOW SEEMS TO BE PLAYING MORE OF
A ROLE IN THE OUTCOME AND NEITHER THE GFS...EURO OR CANADIAN MODELS
AGREE ON ANYTHING...OTHER THAN WE WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE GFS AND EURO BOTH PULL THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR NW BUT THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER SIOUX FALLS WHERE THE
EURO DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER NE IA AND THE CANADIAN KEEPS THE LOW WAY
TO THE SOUTH...OVER MISSOURI.  THIS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS MORE OF A BLEND OF THE EURO AND GFS WITH
MORE WEIGHT BEING GIVEN TO THE GFS AT THIS POINT.  IT HAD A BETTER
IDEA OF THE SOLUTION YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT.
TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED IN THE NW FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS INTRODUCED CWA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.  IF THE GFS CONTINUES WITH ITS SOLUTION THOUGH THEN PRECIP
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER.  TEMPS IN THE MEANTIME
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS
IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
SFT LOW OVR NERN NEBRASKA WITH WRMFNT XTNTG EWD INTO SRN WI WILL LFT
NEWD THIS AFTN.  GUSTY SLY WNDS IN THE WRM SECTOR WILL DMSH OVR NWRN
IA BY MID AFT OR SO AND ARND SNST OVR THE REST OF THE AREA.  CDFNT
WILL SWEEP ACRS THE TAF SITES TNGT SHFGT WNDS TO THE NW ARND 10
KTS.  GUD VFR WX XPCTD THRU TAF PD WITH INC MID CLDS AND WNDS
SWINGING ARND TO NLY ON MON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MS NOV 09
LONG TERM...FAB

000
FXUS63 KDVN 082124
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT SURGED QUICKLY NORTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH MIXING.
THIS AFTN CWA SITS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN WARM SECTOR WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND FULL SOLAR INSOLATION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
TEMPS IN THE L/M 70S... WHICH IS ABOUT 20-25 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR TIME OF YEAR... AND ALSO AROUND 5 DEGS OR SO OFF RECORD HIGHS
AT CWA ASOS CLIMATE SITES. AT 20Z WEAK SFC LOW WAS POSITIONED IN
SOUTHWEST MN... WITH WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
AND SOUTHERN WHILE COLD FRONT TRAILS THROUGH EASTERN NE INTO CENTRAL
KS. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPTS IN THE MID 50S. DEEPER MOISTURE THOUGH LACKING AND HANGING
BACK ACROSS WESTERN TX WHERE H85 DEWPTS WERE IN THE RANGE OF 10-12C.
AS RESULT WITH FORCING LIMITED ATTIM COLD FRONT IS DRY. SUBJECTIVE
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH WESTERN TX. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES CENTRAL CONUS WITH
130 KT H3 JET PASSING THROUGH MN WITH LIFT FROM RRQ... MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND WEAK  SHORTWAVE ASSISTING BANDED LIGHT PCPN SHIELD
LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO ARROWHEAD OF MN. LAST BUT NOT
LEAST IS HURRICANE IDA WHICH EARLY AFTN WAS PASSING BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA.
    ..MCCLURE..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS PCPN CHCS. SFC FRONT TO CONTINUE SLIDING
EAST AND EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS CWA LATE TNGT AND MON AM...
ROUGHLY IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME. MUCH OF E/SE HALF OR SO
OF THE CWA TO REMAIN IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH S/SW WINDS AND COUPLED WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS HAVE GONE
AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE THIS AREA... WHILE SIDING NEAR BLEND
IN THE NORTHWEST.

AS FOR PCPN... WITH PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE SHALLOW... AND LACKING
COHERENT TRIGGER OR FORCING MECHANISM ASIDE FROM WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE... ANTICIPATE PCPN IN OUR CWA TO BE POST FRONTAL FORCED
NEAR THE H85 BOUNDARY. 12Z RUN OF NAM HAD SUGGESTED SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS S/E SECTIONS OVRNGT WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED
WARM ADVECTION ATTRIBUTED TO THE MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SFC WAVE
ALONG BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...18Z NAM NO LONGER SHOWING THIS WEAK SFC
LOW AND SUBSEQUENT RAMPING UP OF WARM ADVECTION...WHICH THE LACK OF
SUCH WAVE IS SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. AS RESULT OF ALL THIS BELIEVE
PCPN POTENTIAL TOO LIMITED FOR MENTION TNGT. DEPTH OF COLD AIR
PER NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS TO NEAR H85 AT KDBQ COUPLED WITH
DRY MID LEVELS PRECLUDES PCPN POTENTIAL FAR NORTH DURING DAY ON MON.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO FOCUS PROXIMITY OF H85 FRONTAL ZONE... OR
ROUGHLY FROM HWY 30 ON SOUTH... WITH HIGHEST POPS ALBEIT CHC ACROSS
THE SOUTH.  NAM AND GFS TSECTS SHOW SATURATION AND FORCING COMING
TOGETHER FOR GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN AFT 00Z TUE IN THE SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPS MON WILL BE COOLER MOST AREAS BY 10-15+ DEGS... AND IN THE
RANGE OF AROUND 60 NW TO M60S SE... BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. A SURE
SIGN OF JUST HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN AROUND HERE IN RECENT DAYS.
..MCCLURE..

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
INITIAL FOCUS IS RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT. REMAINDER OF WEEK LOOKS
DRY WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
MODELS THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN NEXT
WEEKEND.

SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES IS PROGGED TO SEND A WEAK
WAVE ALONG THE H8 FRONT PROGGED TO BE STALLED W-E ALONG THE IA/MO
BORDER TUE NIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE ISENTROPIC LIFT STRONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE MID LEVEL QG FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS FOCUSED FURTHER NORTH FROM E CENTRAL IA INTO NRN IL
LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN TAPPING
INTO THE AREA OF H8 MOISTURE LOCATED OVER W TX INTO THE OK PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. PW VALUES EXCEED 1 INCH...NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...ACROSS THE SOUTH BY MON EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS WITH QPF AS HIGH AS .25 TO .5 INCHES FOR THE EVENT.
FURTHER NORTH...INFLUX OF DRY AIR AROUND BASE OF SURFACE HIGH OVER
MN AND WI WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SHARP CUTOFF TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...AND HAVE POPS TAPERING FROM
SLIGHT TO NON MENTIONABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING OF THE SYSTEM KEEPING MID
LEVEL FORCING GOING A BIT LATER THAN EARLIER RUNS...HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POP IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH BUILDING SOUTHEAST...AND STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD THEN BRING CLEARING DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW MIXING TO AT LEAST 925 MB SHOULD THEN WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS THEN PASSES OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT. LOCAL TECHNIQUE BASED ON H8
TEMPERATURES AND SYNOPTIC SETUP SUPPORTS MINS NEAR TO JUST BELOW
COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK KEPT DRY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...STILL SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE A SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING LEE OF
THE ROCKIES FRI MORNING...THEN TRACKING EAST OR NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. HOWEVER...LARGE INCONSISTENCIES
AMONG THESE AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN AND
FROM MODEL TO MODEL...LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.
FOR NOW...KEPT FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC COMPROMISE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AND SUN AND TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT. MOST LIKELY AT LEAST SEVERAL OF THESE
PERIODS WILL REMAIN DRY AND IF AREA GETS IN WARM SECTOR OF A MORE
NRLY TRACK...ONE OF THESE DAYS COULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AS WELL.
..SHEETS..

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN NE WILL MOVE EAST AND PASS OVER THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. AHEAD OF FRONT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS THIS EVE. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT TRIGGER TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF
PCPN AT TERMINALS. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
FRONT AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG AND LOWER
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP... AS WAS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITHIN FEW HOURS PRIOR TO AND AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE... THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE AM WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING AROUND 10 KTS.   ..MCCLURE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

MCCLURE/SHEETS

000
FXUS63 KDMX 081741 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY.  BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH
AND HOW QUICKLY WILL IT MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...WHICH WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. BOTH
NAM/GFS HAVE FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN IOWA BORDER BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.  BUFR SOUNDING FORECAST HIGH CLOUD DECK STICKING AROUND
FOR MUCH OF THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...WHICH
SHOULD HINDER HIGH TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO WARM. HOWEVER...WITH
DECENT WAA BEHIND FRONT...STILL WENT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA FOR HIGHS TODAY. OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HIGH CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY STRONGER
WAA AS 850MB TEMPS RANGE AROUND +15-16C...SO MORE CONFIDENT WITH
GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.  WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL WITH THEM MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 900MB TO
AROUND 20 TO 25KTS.

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA WILL BEGIN TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN MN. THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. DESPITE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED DRY WEDGE IN THE MID LEVELS FROM 800-500 MB. WEAK FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT ABOVE THE DRY LAYER HOWEVER ANY HYDROMETERS FALLING
INTO THE DRY AIR WILL MOSTLY EVAPORATE AND ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH
THE SFC LIKELY WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE.

BETTER OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WHERE
THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE VICINITY. THE WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A
LAMONI TO OTTUMWA LINE...IS RELATIVELY NARROW AT 3-6 HOURS. SOME
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLD
THUNDER MENTION IN THIS REGION. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA VERY WELL
COULD STAY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE NAM SOLUTION OF HANGING THE BOUNDARY UP INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR PLAUSIBLE WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD.
DRY. THE GFS MAV/MEX GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE HAVING ISSUES FOR
TUESDAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE ITS OWN BUFR
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH OTHER GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED THEN RETURN FLOW
ARRIVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH THE GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
SFT LOW OVR NERN NEBRASKA WITH WRMFNT XTNTG EWD INTO SRN WI WILL LFT
NEWD THIS AFTN.  GUSTY SLY WNDS IN THE WRM SECTOR WILL DMSH OVR NWRN
IA BY MID AFT OR SO AND ARND SNST OVR THE REST OF THE AREA.  CDFNT
WILL SWEEP ACRS THE TAF SITES TNGT SHFGT WNDS TO THE NW ARND 10
KTS.  GUD VFR WX XPCTD THRU TAF PD WITH INC MID CLDS AND WNDS
SWINGING ARND TO NLY ON MON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 09
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS NOV 09

000
FXUS63 KDMX 081127 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
528 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATED 08/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY.  BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH
AND HOW QUICKLY WILL IT MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...WHICH WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. BOTH
NAM/GFS HAVE FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN IOWA BORDER BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.  BUFR SOUNDING FORECAST HIGH CLOUD DECK STICKING AROUND
FOR MUCH OF THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...WHICH
SHOULD HINDER HIGH TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO WARM. HOWEVER...WITH
DECENT WAA BEHIND FRONT...STILL WENT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA FOR HIGHS TODAY. OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HIGH CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY STRONGER
WAA AS 850MB TEMPS RANGE AROUND +15-16C...SO MORE CONFIDENT WITH
GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.  WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL WITH THEM MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 900MB TO
AROUND 20 TO 25KTS.

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA WILL BEGIN TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN MN. THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. DESPITE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED DRY WEDGE IN THE MID LEVELS FROM 800-500 MB. WEAK FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT ABOVE THE DRY LAYER HOWEVER ANY HYDROMETERS FALLING
INTO THE DRY AIR WILL MOSTLY EVAPORATE AND ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH
THE SFC LIKELY WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE.

BETTER OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WHERE
THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE VICINITY. THE WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A
LAMONI TO OTTUMWA LINE...IS RELATIVELY NARROW AT 3-6 HOURS. SOME
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLD
THUNDER MENTION IN THIS REGION. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA VERY WELL
COULD STAY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE NAM SOLUTION OF HANGING THE BOUNDARY UP INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR PLAUSIBLE WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD.
DRY. THE GFS MAV/MEX GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE HAVING ISSUES FOR
TUESDAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE ITS OWN BUFR
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH OTHER GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED THEN RETURN FLOW
ARRIVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH THE GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL YET AGAIN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN IS WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BRINGS A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH IOWA TODAY.  WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS LOOK TO MIX DOWN DURING PEAK
HEATING. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT KEPT WITH THE VFR TREND AS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SORT
OF MVFR CIGS ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

000
FXUS63 KDMX 080925
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
324 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH WARM FRONT OUT
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS
THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY.  BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR
NORTH AND HOW QUICKLY WILL IT MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY...WHICH WILL PLAY
A ROLE IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. BOTH
NAM/GFS HAVE FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN IOWA BORDER BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.  BUFR SOUNDING FORECAST HIGH CLOUD DECK STICKING AROUND
FOR MUCH OF THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...WHICH
SHOULD HINDER HIGH TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO WARM. HOWEVER...WITH
DECENT WAA BEHIND FRONT...STILL WENT AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA FOR HIGHS TODAY. OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...HIGH CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE OVERCOME BY STRONGER
WAA AS 850MB TEMPS RANGE AROUND +15-16C...SO MORE CONFIDENT WITH
GOING ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.  WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL WITH THEM MIXING DOWN FROM AROUND 900MB TO
AROUND 20 TO 25KTS.

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA WILL BEGIN TO DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH IOWA OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN MN. THE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. DESPITE SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW DUE TO A
PRONOUNCED DRY WEDGE IN THE MID LEVELS FROM 800-500 MB. WEAK FORCING
WILL BE PRESENT ABOVE THE DRY LAYER HOWEVER ANY HYDROMETERS FALLING
INTO THE DRY AIR WILL MOSTLY EVAPORATE AND ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH
THE SFC LIKELY WILL NOT BE MEASURABLE.

BETTER OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WHERE
THE SFC BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE VICINITY. THE WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH IS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A
LAMONI TO OTTUMWA LINE...IS RELATIVELY NARROW AT 3-6 HOURS. SOME
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE ISOLD
THUNDER MENTION IN THIS REGION. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA VERY WELL
COULD STAY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE NAM SOLUTION OF HANGING THE BOUNDARY UP INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR PLAUSIBLE WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD.
DRY. THE GFS MAV/MEX GUIDANCE STILL APPEARS TO BE HAVING ISSUES FOR
TUESDAY...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE ITS OWN BUFR
SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH OTHER GUIDANCE ARE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WED THEN RETURN FLOW
ARRIVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WITH THE GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED.
UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
TURN THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS CIGS
AROUND FL200-250 MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BUT NO LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED. AFTER SUNRISE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA USHERING IN INCREASING AND SOMETIMES GUSTY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE
TERMINALS WITHIN THE TAF PERIODS UNLESS IT JUST BARELY REACHES KFOD
BY 06Z MONDAY. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP EVERYTHING VFR AS
MVFR PROBS ARE UNCERTAIN AND ONLY IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO OF THE 06Z
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE

000
FXUS63 KDVN 080855
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
255 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
00Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A SUBTLE BUT APPARENT COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. A BORDERLINE LLJ
OF 30 KTS HAD DEVELOPED FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
RETURN MOISTURE HAD DEVELOPED OFF THE GULF WITH 10C DEW POINTS AS
FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL TEXAS. SATELLITE INDICATED MAINLY CI/CS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WITH SOME AC OVER THE PLAINS. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE
FRONT NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE H85 FRONT...RUNNING FROM SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN...TO THE IA/MO BORDER...AND ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH 40S AND 30S
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WARM AND DRY WX WILL BE SEEN TODAY AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE COOLER START...MAX TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY BREEZES PERSIST. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE
PRECIP STARTS TO REACH THE SURFACE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
THE KEY TO WHEN PRECIP BEGINS AND MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE SCARCE THROUGH SUNRISE.

SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING THE BEST FORCING IS ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG THE FRONT...ANY
PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
SPRINKLES OR -RA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO 40
PERCENT OF THE CWFA. MIN TEMPS TO BE QUITE MILD AGAIN.
...08...

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PCPN CHANCES WITH FROPA MONDAY AND UPPER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND S/W AS WELL AS THE
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF PCPN. BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE JUST NW OF THE CWFA AND SHOULD MOVE TO JUST EAST OF
THE CWFA BY 00Z TUESDAY.  THIS EVENINGS H8 ANALYSIS SHOWED H8
DEWPOINTS AROUND 10C ADVECTING NORTH AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST.   MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
ADVECTING THIS MOISTURE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  SO THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PCPN WHICH THE
MODELS BREAK OUT NR THE H8 FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEP PCPN OVER
THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT.  CURRENT PROGS
FAVOR THE SERN HALF OF THE CWFA FOR THE HIGHEST POPS.  HAVE UPPED
POPS TO 50S OVER SE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT
TO LIKELIES OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CWFA. POPS WERE TAPERED OFF
TO LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE NWRN CWFA.  THUNDER WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...BUT IT CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA MONDAY.
IT/S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTERNOON OR
DURING THE EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL FORCING INCREASES AND BEFORE IT
BECOMES SATURATED.

PCPN SHOULD END QUICKLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST SO DROPPED THE MENTION OF POPS AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT DROPPING TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 30S.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROF
FORMING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  PCPN CHANCES
SATURDAY STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOWING A
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY.  ...DLF...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WX EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/09. KBRL MAY DROP INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE
AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. THE OTHER TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN 6SM OR BETTER. CI/CS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH SUNSET
AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WFP WILL BE
NOTED WITH A CHANGE TO SOUTH WINDS WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER AFT 06Z/09 BUT BETTER FORCING
ALONG/BEHIND FRONT. KCID/KDBQ MAY SEE SPRINKLES OR -RA BY 12Z/09
WITH 3-5SM POSSIBLE. CIGS MAY DROP TO 3KFT NEAR THE COLD FRONT.
...08...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS63 KDMX 080536 AAB
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1136 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
QUIET WX WITH HI PRES MOVG OVR THE CWA TNGT.  HI LVL CLOUDINESS WILL
OVRSPRD THE AREA LATER TNGT AND FOR THAT REASON DID NOT GO WITH A
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS.  XPCT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEG
AFT 08Z WITH INC CLDS AND WNDS SWINGING ARND TO THE SE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS NW/NORTHERN
IA.  MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.  A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING
NORTHEAST COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA.  KEPT SUNDAY DRY BUT DID
THROW SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING.  THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 300-500 J/KG OF
CAPE AS WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.  I
KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED A LITTLE MORE NORTHEAST IF THE INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO SPREAD A BIT MORE NORTH.  TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH READINGS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
50S.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S WERE KEPT.  NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MAINLY FRIDAY  THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THEN PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING BUT
THERE ARE SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WITH FEATURES.  BROUGHT BEST CHANCES
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY GOING WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE EURO
BUT EVEN THIS MODEL WAS A TOUCH FASTER WITH THE 12Z RUN THAN WITH
THE 00Z RUN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE PRECIP IN EARLIER BUT GIVEN THE
DEEPENING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES I FELT THIS WAS IN
ERROR.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
TURN THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIRRUS CIGS
AROUND FL200-250 MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BUT NO LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED. AFTER SUNRISE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA USHERING IN INCREASING AND SOMETIMES GUSTY SOUTHERLY
BREEZES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE
TERMINALS WITHIN THE TAF PERIODS UNLESS IT JUST BARELY REACHES KFOD
BY 06Z MONDAY. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP EVERYTHING VFR AS
MVFR PROBS ARE UNCERTAIN AND ONLY IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO OF THE 06Z
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 09
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...LEE

000
FXUS63 KDMX 072329 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
529 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
QUIET WX WITH HI PRES MOVG OVR THE CWA TNGT.  HI LVL CLOUDINESS WILL
OVRSPRD THE AREA LATER TNGT AND FOR THAT REASON DID NOT GO WITH A
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS.  XPCT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEG
AFT 08Z WITH INC CLDS AND WNDS SWINGING ARND TO THE SE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS NW/NORTHERN
IA.  MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.  A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING
NORTHEAST COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA.  KEPT SUNDAY DRY BUT DID
THROW SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING.  THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 300-500 J/KG OF
CAPE AS WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.  I
KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED A LITTLE MORE NORTHEAST IF THE INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO SPREAD A BIT MORE NORTH.  TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH READINGS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
50S.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S WERE KEPT.  NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MAINLY FRIDAY  THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THEN PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING BUT
THERE ARE SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WITH FEATURES.  BROUGHT BEST CHANCES
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY GOING WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE EURO
BUT EVEN THIS MODEL WAS A TOUCH FASTER WITH THE 12Z RUN THAN WITH
THE 00Z RUN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE PRECIP IN EARLIER BUT GIVEN THE
DEEPENING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES I FELT THIS WAS IN
ERROR.

&&

.AVIATION...08/00Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT...TURNING FROM
NORTH TO EAST BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...WITH A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS WILL EXTEND AN
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST THAT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. NO PRECIP AND ONLY HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED...BUT AS THE FRONT PASSES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTH OR SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH
SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT KDSM AND KOTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 09
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...LEE

000
FXUS63 KDMX 072150
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
QUIET WX WITH HI PRES MOVG OVR THE CWA TNGT.  HI LVL CLOUDINESS WILL
OVRSPRD THE AREA LATER TNGT AND FOR THAT REASON DID NOT GO WITH A
DIURNAL TREND IN TEMPS.  XPCT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEG
AFT 08Z WITH INC CLDS AND WNDS SWINGING ARND TO THE SE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS NW/NORTHERN
IA.  MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20.  A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING
NORTHEAST COULD PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
PRECIP STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA.  KEPT SUNDAY DRY BUT DID
THROW SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING.  THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 300-500 J/KG OF
CAPE AS WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.  I
KEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED A LITTLE MORE NORTHEAST IF THE INSTABILITY IS
ABLE TO SPREAD A BIT MORE NORTH.  TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH READINGS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
50S.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S WERE KEPT.  NEXT SYSTEM TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MAINLY FRIDAY  THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THEN PUSHES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAST MOVING BUT
THERE ARE SEVERAL TIMING ISSUES WITH FEATURES.  BROUGHT BEST CHANCES
IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY GOING WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF THE EURO
BUT EVEN THIS MODEL WAS A TOUCH FASTER WITH THE 12Z RUN THAN WITH
THE 00Z RUN.  THE GFS BRINGS THE PRECIP IN EARLIER BUT GIVEN THE
DEEPENING NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES I FELT THIS WAS IN
ERROR.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
WK CDFNT ABOUT TO EXIT THE CWA WITH WNDS BCMG NNW-NLY THIS AFTN.
WINDS REL LGT ARND 10 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS WITH OVERTURNING TIL
SNST.  WNDS WILL DECOUPLE OVR NGT WITH A GENL NE-ELY FLOW OVR THE
STATE.  DVLPG WRMFNT TO THE S OF IA BY MRNG WITH SELY FLOW DVLPG ON
SUN.  NSW THRU PD WITH ONLY SCT-BKN HI CLDS XPCTD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MS NOV 09
LONG TERM...FAB

000
FXUS63 KDVN 072103
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009


.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WERE THE RULE THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE A WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. AT 2 PM...THE FRONT...WHICH WAS PRIMARILY A PRESSURE TROUGH
AND WIND SHIFT...EXTENDED FROM NE TO SW FROM FREEPORT TO
KIRKSVILLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S...WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TRAILING THE FROPA IN EASTERN
IA. LACK OF MOISTURE IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WAS PROVIDING
NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATED THE
NEXT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NW CONUS TOWARD THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS PROGGED TO INDUCE A RETURN FLOW...SENDING
THE WEAK FRONT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FOCUS. THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
AT THE 925 AND 850MB LEVELS WAS SHOWN IN SHORT TERM MODELS LAGGING
WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AS CLOSE AS MN INTO
FAR NE IA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AS
IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND STALL OVERHEAD TONIGHT BECOMING ORIENTED
MORE PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY
OF SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS FAR SE IA INTO W
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY IN
SE SD...SLIDING NEB ACROSS NRN IA TO SRN WI BY MIDNIGHT.

AS LOW LEVEL RETURN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...
RESULTING FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY
PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTH TOWARD SUNRISE. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVERAGE AND WILL STAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE OUT MORE
THAN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE GONE ROUGHLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER...IN THE
MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SHOWN REACHING THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY. RESULTING SW
RETURN FLOW AT 925 AND H8 PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK TO ROUGHLY 2
DEGREES SHY OF TODAY/S VALUES...SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY MILD
DAY FOR EARLY NOV AS LACK OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS MORE
SUNSHINE AND SIMILAR MIXING DEPTHS. MIXING TO AT LEAST 925 MB...
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.
..SHEETS..

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EVENT MONDAY...THEN DRY WITH MAINLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE RAIN NEXT WEEKEND...

SOLUTION INITIALIZATION ABOVE AVERAGE WITH VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HI-
RES ECMWF WITH SOME FORCING INPUTS FROM GFS.  PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE
PHASING OF TROPICAL STORM "IDA" WITH APPROACHING NEXT WAVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...TREND IS FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE
RAINFALL EVENT SE 2/3 CWFA AS DEWPOINTS RISE WELL INTO LOWER 50S
AHEAD OF COOL FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT BOUNDARY AND SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NE FROM SOUTH PLAINS SUGGEST ALL SOLUTIONS STILL TOO DRY
OVERALL WITH PRECIPITATION. LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3+
TENTHS AMOUNTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOCAL
INSTABILITY TOOL SUGGEST ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY OCCUR
MONDAY...BUT NEED STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE IN THE CARDS DUE TO LIMITED PHASING WITH "IDA` ATTM.  PASS FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS DUE TO THE PHASING QUESTION...PLUS MODEL
SMOOTHING THIS FAR OUT. MINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
POOLING MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL. DECENT TEMP GRADIENT FOR
HIGHS MONDAY WITH FRONT AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH PRECIPITATION
SUGGESTED AND NW SECTIONS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER. MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING RAIN TO END WITH
LIMITED COOLING. KEY ISSUE OF PHASING OF ENERGY FROM TS "IDA" KEY TO
CLOUDS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPS/POPS MONDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD BECOME
MORE EVIDENT NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY THOUGH PERIOD AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RISING TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY.  LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AM MAY STILL
NEED TRIMMING WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.  THURSDAY
SHOWS GOOD SOUTH WINDS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGESTING MAX
TEMPS MAY NEED RAISING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES HIGHER FOR LATER SHIFTS.
ALSO GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE IN STORE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EVIDENCE WITH SW UPPER FLOW AND MODERATE SIZE
UPPER TROUGH OF A SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HIGH END PRECIPITATION
EVENT BUT TIMING STILL A QUESTION.  KEPT POPS LOW ATTM WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EVENT
STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY.     ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 5 TO 10 KT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THEN BECOME
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MORNING. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND SUNRISE AT HAVE HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS IN FORECASTS. HAVE ALSO BROUGHT IN POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS IN THE BRL AREA AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
KTS FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA.   ..SHEETS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SHEETS/NICHOLS

000
FXUS63 KDMX 071733 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATED 07/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
STATE THIS MORNING BRINGING EVEN DRYER AIR INTO THE CWA AND A WIND
SHIFT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO REMAIN MILD...AND WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH RESULTED
IN TWEAKING HIGH TEMPS UP TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VERY DRY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...SO CLOUD COVER REMAINS
MINIMAL. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN MUCH CALMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IF IT DEVELOPS MAY LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MN BORDER. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK SOUTH AS
A COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE SLOW TO ERODE. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ENHANCED FORCING FROM A
WEAK COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY WITH 400-600
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEX GUIDANCE APPEARS MUCH TOO WARM ON TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
WK CDFNT ABOUT TO EXIT THE CWA WITH WNDS BCMG NNW-NLY THIS AFTN.
WINDS REL LGT ARND 10 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS WITH OVERTURNING TIL
SNST.  WNDS WILL DECOUPLE OVR NGT WITH A GENL NE-ELY FLOW OVR THE
STATE.  DVLPG WRMFNT TO THE S OF IA BY MRNG WITH SELY FLOW DVLPG ON
SUN.  NSW THRU PD WITH ONLY SCT-BKN HI CLDS XPCTD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS NOV 09

000
FXUS63 KDMX 071136 AAA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATED 07/12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
STATE THIS MORNING BRINGING EVEN DRYER AIR INTO THE CWA AND A WIND
SHIFT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO REMAIN MILD...AND WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH RESULTED
IN TWEAKING HIGH TEMPS UP TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VERY DRY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...SO CLOUD COVER REMAINS
MINIMAL. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN MUCH CALMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IF IT DEVELOPS MAY LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MN BORDER. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK SOUTH AS
A COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE SLOW TO ERODE. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ENHANCED FORCING FROM A
WEAK COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY WITH 400-600
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEX GUIDANCE APPEARS MUCH TOO WARM ON TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...07/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE STATE TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CUT
ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING...PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.  FOD/MCW EXPECTING WIND SHIFT AT
THE ONSET OF TAF ISSUANCE...THEN SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDDAY.
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO NOT MUCH OF THE WAY
OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

000
FXUS63 KDMX 070904
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
304 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009


.SHORT TERM...TODAY
NO MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
STATE THIS MORNING BRINGING EVEN DRYER AIR INTO THE CWA AND A WIND
SHIFT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO REMAIN MILD...AND WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WHICH RESULTED
IN TWEAKING HIGH TEMPS UP TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. VERY DRY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...SO CLOUD COVER REMAINS
MINIMAL. SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SO WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN MUCH CALMER THAN FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IF IT DEVELOPS MAY LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MN BORDER. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SATURATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS BACK SOUTH AS
A COLD FRONT. THAT SAID...MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY
WITH THE MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE SLOW TO ERODE. A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ENHANCED FORCING FROM A
WEAK COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY WITH 400-600
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY TUESDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MEX GUIDANCE APPEARS MUCH TOO WARM ON TUESDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL SUGGEST NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER
AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. SKC OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS ARND FL200-300 MOVING IN SAT AFTN. WEAK SFC TROF WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA BTWN ABT 10Z AND 18Z SAT WITH WINDS TURNING TO SW
THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
WHEEL AROUND THROUGH NE SAT AFTN/EVE AS SFC HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY
ACROSS NORTHERN IA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE

000
FXUS63 KDVN 070801
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
201 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
00Z UA ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG LLJ OF 40-50 KNOTS RUNNING FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. SATELLITE INDICATED THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WAA WERE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM
THE ND/MN BORDER DOWN INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF
RAN FROM WESTERN MN DOWN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINTS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH 50S AS CLOSE AS THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INDIAN SUMMER WX WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE QUESTION OF HOW WARM
WILL IT GET. DRY FROPA TO OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SAID FROPA SHOULD HELP PUT THE BRAKES ON THE TEMPERATURE
RISE. HOWEVER...THE RESPECTABLE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES QUITE
WEAK AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THUS TEMPERATURES MAY NOT SLOW DOWN
MUCH. GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES IT IS OBVIOUS THAT READINGS IN
THE 70S WILL BE SEEN ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWFA.

FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA TONIGHT AND RE-ORGANIZES AS A
WARM FRONT. THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CWFA WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WHILE A
COOLER EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA.
...08...

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THE
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL AND REMAINING MAINLY DRY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY.  MODEL
PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CWFA
SUNDAY MORNING.  SINCE THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME MIXING...HAVE CONTINUED TO HOLD HIGHS A CATEGORY OR SO
ABOVE GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOW 70S
SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
WITH MODELS STILL GENERATING A SWATH OF POST FRONTAL PCPN...TIED TO
A NARROW REGION OF MID LEVEL FGEN.  SINCE THE 00Z RUNS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCE
POPS.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE VCNTY OF THE FGEN ARE PROGGED TO
BE AROUND 6.5C/KM MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  IF THIS VERIFIES...THEN
SOME THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FCST.  AIR BEHIND THE S/W
WILL BE VERY DRY...SO SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP TO NEAR
NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  RETURN FLOW SETS
UP AGAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A TROF
MOVING INTO THE SWRN U.S.  MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING
THE WESTERN U.S. TROF AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS
MAINTAINING A SPLIT FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE PHASING.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS NOT STRONG ENUF TO WARRANT
CHANGING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
...DLF...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WX EXPECTED THROUGH 08/12Z. STRONG LLJ OF 40-50KTS AT 925MB IS
LIKELY CAUSING LLWS AROUND 2KFT AGL AT EACH TAF SITE. LLJ TO WEAKEN
AFT 07/12Z TO 20-30KTS ENDING LLWS THREAT. DRY FROPA TO OCCUR AT ALL
TAF SITES WITH KCID/KDBQ BEING AFFECTED FIRST WITH KMLI/KBRL AROUND
MID DAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF KBRL THIS EVENING
ALLOWING LLVL EASTERLY FLOW TO BE SEEN. KBRL MAY DROP TO 6SM PRIOR
TO 08/12Z DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT.
...08...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

$$

000
FXUS63 KDMX 070529 AAB
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1129 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
LITTLE IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR TONIGHT. HIGH
THIN CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA NOW...WILL GIVE WAY TO
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE TNT. SOUTH WINDS TO CONTINUE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WITH GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST AS A TROUGH SETTLES
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH MOISTURE ON THE RISE IN LOWER LAYERS
THIS EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE THE TEMPS REMAIN MILD. GREATER COOLING
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AS THE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MADE IT THROUGH BY SUNRISE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW...
ALLOWING FOR A STEEPER DROP OFF IN TEMPS DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW STAYS
LARGELY ZONAL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK...KEEPING LARGER SCALE FORCING TO
THE NORTH. FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE MEAN FLOW WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME GATHERING MUCH MOISTURE. COOL FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT COLD ADVECTION IS NEGLIBLE...SO EXPECT
SATURDAY TO BE A REALLY NICE DAY IF YOU LIKE TEMPS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 AND LIGHT WIND. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS AND SCOOTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA LATE SUNDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY
MONDAY MORNING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS SUNDAY...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR PATCHY DRIZZLE BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. KINEMATIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOT
TOO SHABBY...BUT AGAIN THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED...SO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW
SIDE. GFS THE MOST BULLISH ON BREAKING OUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
ACROSS SRN IOWA MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SINCE IT IS SOMEWHAT
OF AN OUTLIER...HAVE KEPT POPS LOW THERE AS WELL. THERE IS SOME
MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS MONDAY...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST YET.

AFTER ANOTHER MILD DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS COOL BACK
INTO THE 50S FOR NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRINGING THE NEXT
MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT THROUGH HERE IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. ALL IN ALL...A PRETTY BENIGN FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. SKC OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS ARND FL200-300 MOVING IN SAT AFTN. WEAK SFC TROF WILL
TRAVERSE THE AREA BTWN ABT 10Z AND 18Z SAT WITH WINDS TURNING TO SW
THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND
WHEEL AROUND THROUGH NE SAT AFTN/EVE AS SFC HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY
ACROSS NORTHERN IA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...MOYER
AVIATION...LEE