[top]
000
FXUS65 KBOI 090431
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
931 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF CIRRUS FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 9 PM DRIFTING AND THINNING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT. IDAHO VALLEY DOWNSLOPE WINDS BEING
ENHANCED BY EAST TO WEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF NEXT
COLD FRONT WHICH WAS OFFSHORE AROUND 130W AS OF 9 PM. EAST WINDS
UP TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST MAGIC VALLEY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH A MINOR UPDATE. CLOUDS WERE THINNING ACROSS NE
OREGON/CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH THE EVENING PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO
WARMING/DRYING ALOFT WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF OFFSHORE
SYSTEM. PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS STILL ON TRACK - THE
MOISTURE SOURCE IS FROM THE LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOWFALL YESTERDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR OVER THE AREA TONIGHT EXCEPT AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOCAL VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE.
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY OVER THE OREGON PORTION WITH CLEAR
OVER IDAHO PORTION. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. MODERATE SW WINDS ALOFT
AVERAGE 220/25KTS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
DATA INDICATED THAT THE SHORTWAVE IS INDEED PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
AS PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SHALLOW MOUNTAIN CU IN THE NORTH. THOSE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AROUND BAKER AND
MCCALL. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON MONDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COAST. THIS
WILL CAUSE GUSTY S-SE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. THIS COULD HELP PUSH TEMPS UP EVEN FURTHER
THAN SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. WITHOUT A
CLEAR-CUT WINNER...DECIDED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WITH THE FRONT INITIALLY LOOKS GOOD...BUT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES US IT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT. SO...AT THIS POINT QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WENT WITH MID-RANGE POPS WITH THIS
EVENT...GENERALLY IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AND PASS THROUGH IDAHO ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. DETAILS ON THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE
NEXT. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH MAY EVOLVE
INTO A RATHER DEEP CLOSED LOW THAT WILL LINGER DIRECTLY OVER IDAHO
INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN
WAVE WHICH WOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUR FORECAST
SHOWS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN THE OREGON ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE WET AND
COLD IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL IDAHO WHERE SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD SHOWERY PATTERN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT
MILDER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....PF
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB/JT
000
FXUS65 KBOI 082158
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
255 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
DATA INDICATED THAT THE SHORTWAVE IS INDEED PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
AS PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SHALLOW MOUNTAIN CU IN THE NORTH. THOSE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AROUND BAKER AND
MCCALL. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON MONDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COAST. THIS
WILL CAUSE GUSTY S-SE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. THIS COULD HELP PUSH TEMPS UP EVEN FURTHER
THAN SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. WITHOUT A
CLEAR-CUT WINNER...DECIDED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WITH THE FRONT INITIALLY LOOKS GOOD...BUT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES US IT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT. SO...AT THIS POINT QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WENT WITH MID-RANGE POPS WITH THIS
EVENT...GENERALLY IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AND PASS THROUGH IDAHO ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. DETAILS ON THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE
NEXT. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH MAY EVOLVE
INTO A RATHER DEEP CLOSED LOW THAT WILL LINGER DIRECTLY OVER IDAHO
INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN
WAVE WHICH WOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUR FORECAST
SHOWS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN THE OREGON ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE WET AND
COLD IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL IDAHO WHERE SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD SHOWERY PATTERN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT
MILDER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR
KMYL AND KBKE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST IN THE OREGON ZONES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB/JT
AVIATION.....JB
[top]
000
FXUS65 KPIH 082040
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
140 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE CHILLY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS
WILL FILTER THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. THINK THAT GUIDANCE
IS TOO COOL CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR PUMPING INTO THE
REGION COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLIDE
OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE POURING INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
BETTER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...SO ONLY EXPECT
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY PLACING IDAHO
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING THE TIMING...INTENSITY AND BREADTH OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WEST...WITH ONE MODEL INDICATING AN
OPEN TROUGH WHILE THE OTHER HAS THE SYSTEM SPLITTING WITH A CUT OFF
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST. OVERALL...PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON THE WET AND
COOL SIDE WITH SOME MEASURE OF A TROUGH LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO
FORECAST. UPPED POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN SLIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...CLIMO TYPE POPS
REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. HANKO
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDING. HANKO
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 081654
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BULK OF SE
OREGON/SW IDAHO THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WERE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY
SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS AND WILL THUS LOWER THE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN WESTERN
WA/OR...IS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH. ALONG WITH
LOWER POPS...THE MORNING UPDATE WILL INCLUDE LESS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO TODAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. A FEW PATCHES OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA BY LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR KMYL AND KBKE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS PASSED EWD ACROSS
OUR NRN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...NOW GOING INTO WRN MONTANA. ANOTHER
DISORGANIZED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS WAS MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS OREGON AT 09Z. PROGS EXPECT THE LATTER WAVE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES FURTHER ENEWD...WITH ONLY SMALL POPS AGAIN FOR OUR NRN ZONES
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN ALL ZONES TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE COMES INTO SRN OREGON. CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME
COLDER THAN THIS NIGHT...TEENS IN HIGHER MOUNTAINS...20S ELSEWHERE
...EXCEPT NEAR 30 AROUND BOI. COLD AIR WILL CONDENSE OUT PATCHY FOG
AROUND MYL AND BKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR IDAHO ZONES MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 3-5F BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE OREGON ZONES AND
IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO ON TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
AMPLIFIES AND TAPS INTO MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH DECREASING POPS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....CD
000
FXUS65 KPIH 081034
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
334 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TODAY AS ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN TO SOUTHWEST
AND EXPECT WARMING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER. THE MILD DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
GK
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW ON WED...SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MOST AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES THRU THE FCST AREA
WED EVE. THE TROF BROADENS AND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THU...SO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MTNS...AND ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THU
IS WHERE WE START THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF AXIS OVER
EASTERN WA/OR ON THU...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE. GETTING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE ECMWF DIGS ANOTHER
TROF INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE ZONAL. THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL NECESSITATE MAINTAINING POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO
VALUES FOR THE WEEKEND. HEDGES
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THRU MON MORNING. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 081007
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
307 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS PASSED EWD ACROSS
OUR NRN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...NOW GOING INTO WRN MONTANA. ANOTHER
DISORGANIZED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS WAS MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS OREGON AT 09Z. PROGS EXPECT THE LATTER WAVE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FURTHER ENEWD...WITH ONLY SMALL POPS AGAIN FOR OUR NRN
ZONES THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN ALL ZONES TONIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE COMES INTO SRN OREGON. CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO BECOME COLDER THAN THIS NIGHT...TEENS IN HIGHER MOUNTAINS...20S
ELSEWHERE ...EXCEPT NEAR 30 AROUND BOI. COLD AIR WILL CONDENSE OUT
PATCHY FOG AROUND MYL AND BKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR IDAHO ZONES MONDAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 3-5F BELOW NORMAL...RISING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE OREGON ZONES AND
IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO ON TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
AMPLIFIES AND TAPS INTO MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE EAST OF
THE AREA WITH DECREASING POPS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING NORTH OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM BURNS TO BOISE. OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION.....CD
000
FXUS65 KBOI 080347
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
847 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...RAIN
BELOW 3-4K FEET MSL...EXPECTED ACROSS BAKER COUNTY UNTIL 7Z...AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 9-10Z...AS THE GREATER LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN THE BLUES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE SNOWIEST PLACES UNDER WESTERLY FLOW INCLUDING
BRUNDAGE MTN. GUSTY WINDS SW TO W TO 30 MPH FAR NORTH AS THIS
QUICK MOVING MOIST TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
LEADS TO CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS
SUPPORTS PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES VS. TODAY LOOK
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY EXCEPT WITH MILDER SW FLOW WEST
OF THE STEENS AND FAR SOUTHERN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...IN THE WAKE OF
THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS MILDER BY
4-8 DEGREES EVERYWHERE...AND DRY. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO ONTARIO EAST. AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NORTH OF THIS LINE ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LINE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON SUNDAY EXPECT SOME MVFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TO PERSIST IN THE NORTH...OTHERWISE VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED. MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE
WHICH ENTERED WESTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON WILL TRACK E-NE AND BRUSH
BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL STAY
NORTH...BUT THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMES OFF THE PACIFIC AND TRACKS THROUGH THE
ID PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTH ON
SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PACNW.
DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS LATE SUN NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY GRADIENT
DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHEAST WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE WINDS WILL COME
A MILDER AIRMASS FOR MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
OREGON ZONES AND IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH DECREASING
POPS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....PF
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB/JT
000
FXUS65 KBOI 072149
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE
WHICH ENTERED WESTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON WILL TRACK E-NE AND BRUSH
BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL STAY
NORTH...BUT THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMES OFF THE PACIFIC AND TRACKS THROUGH THE
ID PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTH ON
SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PACNW.
DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS LATE SUN NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY GRADIENT
DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHEAST WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE WINDS WILL COME
A MILDER AIRMASS FOR MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
OREGON ZONES AND IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH DECREASING
POPS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KBKE AND KMYL TONIGHT WITH MTNS
OBSCURED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB/JT
AVIATION.....JB
000
FXUS65 KPIH 072043
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
143 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY PRODUCED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPS
FOR TONIGHT BUT AM WARMER ON MONDAY SINCE THE RIDGE LOOKS
RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE TEMPS GIVEN BY GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH STALLED OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT A WEAK WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY WHILE LEAVING THE REST OF REGION UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST RECENT MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION OF BRINGING A
STRONGER WAVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHICH DIGS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW IN THE PACIFIC HEADS ONSHORE ACROSS WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...EVENTUALLY OPENING TO A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON THURSDAY. THIS NEW SCENARIO RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS (ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS GFS).
WHILE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AM STILL SKEPTICAL
ABOUT THE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THAT SAID...HAVE UPPED POPS
ABOUT 20 PERCENT FOR MIDWEEK TO COVER ALL AREAS BUT WILL WAIT ON
FUTURE RUNS TO GO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. HANKO
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HANKO
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 071647
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
945 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND MOVING
SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT PRECIP OCCASIONALLY BEING
RECORDED AT TWIN FALLS ASOS AND JEROME ASOS. MODELS INDICATE FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE BAND AFTER 18Z SO WILL FORECAST LOWER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN THE
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT ALL INDICATIONS WERE THAT THE
PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
SUPPORT LOW-END POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. HOWEVER...LINGERING CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAIN TOPS AT
TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 09Z KCBX RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS CONTINUING IN A BAND
EXTENDING FROM THE SW CORNER OF IDAHO NEWD TO SRN CAMAS
COUNTY...PARALLEL TO THE REMAINS OF FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT WHICH WAS
NEAR THE SRN IDAHO BORDER. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO OUR CWA BUT SO FAR OTHER SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN HARD TO FIND. SAPIX SHOWED NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
PACIFIC ALONG THE CASCADES AT 09Z AND MOVING RAPIDLY EAST...FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT VERY LOW MOS POPS SUGGEST THEY WON/T HAPPEN. WE THINK
THEY WILL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DUE TO CONTINUING MIXING WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE 4000 FT
MSL BUT LITTLE CHANGE BELOW 4000 FEET UNDER STABLE INVERSION. A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH FOR HIGHER POPS TUESDAY...AND SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO AROUND 5K FEET MSL BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED MODELS REGARDING
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS THE GFS GIVES A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS SLOWER TIMING BUT PAINTS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THE
NATIONAL GUIDANCE PREFERRED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH THIS RESULTS IN ABOVE CLIMO POPS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....CD
000
FXUS65 KPIH 071032
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
332 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WORKING THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING MAINLY
IN HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT PERHAPS LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ABOVE THOSE LEVELS. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODERATE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GK
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THRU WED AS A NEW UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW TUE NIGHT. ISOLD
SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CEN MTNS ON TUE...MAINLY ON WINDWARD
SLOPES. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA BY WED AS THE UPPER
TROF MOVES INLAND. THE GFS HAS THE COLD FRONT PASSING THRU THE FCST
AREA ON WED. PRECIP DIMINISHES IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS BY THU AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN
FCST AREA MTNS THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN GEN
AGREEMENT THRU WED...BUT DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE PROGRESSION OF
THE TROF. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE TROF TO THE WEST THRU THURSDAY. THE ECMWF CLOSES OFF INTO AN
UPPER LOW OVER SW ID BY FRI MORN. THE GFS HAS A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER NV. THE ECMWF WOULD MAKE A STRONGER CASE FOR PRECIP ON FRI.
WILL BE KEEPING LOW CHC POPS OVER MAINLY THE NRN MTNS ON FRI...BUT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFS BRINGS ANOTHER UPPER
TROF THRU ON SAT...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS OVER THE MTNS WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE NRN MTNS. THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGS A TROF INTO THE AREA ON SAT...
BUT WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE. TEMPS WILL STAY COOL THRU THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD. HEDGES
&&
.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS WILL MOVE THRU THE CEN MTNS AND PARTS OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TODAY...AND TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTN. OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSUN THIS MORNING.
LIFR CIGS/FG WILL REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KBOI 070951
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z KCBX RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS CONTINUING IN A BAND
EXTEMDING FROM THE SW CORNER OF IDAHO NEWD TO SRN CAMAS COUNTY...
PARALLEL TO THE REMAINS OF FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT WHICH WAS NEAR THE
SRN IDAHO BORDER. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR INTO OUR CWA BUT SO FAR OTHER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HARD TO
FIND. SAPIX SHOWED NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC ALONG
THE CASCADES AT 09Z AND MOVING RAPIDLY EAST...FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR ZONES LATER THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LOW MOS
POPS SUGGEST THEY WON/T HAPPEN. WE THINK THEY WILL. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL DUE TO CONTINUING MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE 4000 FT
MSL BUT LITTLE CHANGE BELOW 4000 FEET UNDER STABLE INVERSION. A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH FOR HIGHER POPS TUESDAY...AND SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO AROUND 5K FEET MSL BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED MODELS REGARDING
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS THE GFS GIVES A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS SLOWER TIMING BUT PAINTS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THE
NATIONAL GUIDANCE PREFERRED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH THIS RESULTS IN ABOVE CLIMO POPS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR/MTN OBSCURATION OVER THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWEST 30 KTS WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION.....CD
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