[top]
000
FXUS63 KIWX 082339
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
640 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE SHOWING SCT CIRRUS TO OUR SOUTHWEST MOVING THIS WAY. THESE
HIGH CLOUDS COUPLED WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD
HELP LIMIT BR FORMATION. CONDITIONS STILL WARRANT CONTINUING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES ON MONDAY WITH
INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE LIMITED SO
JUST BROUGHT CIGS DOWN TO LOW END VFR FOR NOW BY END OF PERIOD. WIND
SHIFT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SECOND HALF OF A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED BACK NORTH RESUMING WARM SW FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RISE NEAR 70 ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z MODELS INDICATING SOME VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE H7 AOA 30C WRAPPING
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LAST GASP OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING BUT HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND WITH XOVER
TEMPS EVEN HIGHER IN THE LOW 50S FEEL THAT SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF GRADIENT WINDS...
SOMEWHAT LESS MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...AND POSSIBILITY OF
CIRRUS MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE REGION SHOULD MITIGATE THE MORE DENSE
VARIETY WE SAW THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
POTENTIALLY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE DAWN IN THE WEST PUTTING A CLAMP ON
TEMPERATURE DROP .
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW TODAY WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
TRAILING A LONG COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES SLOW MOVING AS UPPER FLOW
LARGELY PARALLELS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFT/EVENING IS SIMILARLY
PALE WITH LI/S OF -1/-2 AND MUCAPES AOB 200J/KG. ADDITIONALLY BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ALOFT TRASHING LAPSE RATES.
WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER WORDING...AND CONTINUE THE
GOING TREND OF POPS FROM NW TO SE ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL AS LOW
LEVELS ATTEMPT TO SATURATE WITHIN MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON 12Z
MODEL TIMING BUT THE GENERAL APPROACH REMAINS INTACT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO WANE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE
MOVEMENT AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF IDA THIS WEEK WILL
PLAY A STRONG ROLE IN AUGMENTING THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW PATTERN WITH
RAMIFICATIONS IN THIS AREA. THIS LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IS SHOWN WELL
IN THE GEFS RMOP GRAPHICS...WHICH FROM LAST NIGHT/S 00Z SIMULATION
SHOW LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THE GEFS MEAN FORECAST
VERIFYING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN IMPACT OF
IDA WILL LIKELY BE TO SLOW DOWN THE UPSTREAM FLOW PATTERN AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A PRETTY INTENSE CUT OFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
EASTERN US COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF IDA...THE CORE OF LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA WILL MOVE EAST...TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER ALASKA. THIS WILL
PUSH A LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
WESTERN NOAM...WITH IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS OUR AREA IMPEDED
BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMPACTS OF IDA.
FRONT PASSING TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAKE ON A ANA-FRONT STRUCTURE
WITH CONTINUED LIFT WELL BEHIND THE LLEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN
THIS STRUCTURE...AND THE INCREASED AMOUNT OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING...EXPANDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON POPS NORTH AND WEST...AND THIS
TREND MAY HAVE TO BE FURTHERED BY LATER SHIFTS. CLOUDS/PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN...AND WILL CONTINUE CONSERVATIVE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...A LITTLE
BELOW FULLY MIXED T92 VALUES.
THE NICE STRETCH OF MID/LATE WEEK WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE IN
TACT WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL NOT REBOUND EVEN WITH MORE SUN AS COLD
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF WILL
LOWER T92 TO AROUND 3C. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS ALOFT TO REBOUND. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S LOOK
GOOD GIVEN T92 7-8C.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRUDGE EAST...GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
INFLUENCE OF IDA OR IT/S REMNANTS...EXPECT THAT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
THE WEEKEND FOR ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO REACH OUR AREA. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...BUT INTRODUCE CHC POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. CERTAINLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE...BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...BELIEVE POPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO /ABOUT
30 PERCENT AT SBN-FWA / ARE WARRANTED. WILL CONTINUE TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO SATURDAY...AND THEN TREND TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH. THIS YIELDS MID
50S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...LASHLEY
[top]
000
FXUS63 KIND 082321
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
621 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 09/00Z TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. HI PRES WITH
RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINING DRY WX AND MSTLY CLR SKIES ATTM. LARGE
SWATH OF MID/HI LVL CLOUDS LIFTING NORTH THRU MISSISSIPPI VLY ERLY
THIS EVNG AROUND BACK SIDE OF HI PRES WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF AN
INCREASE IN THESE HI CLOUDS AND LGT SRLY FLO SHOULD KEEP ANY BR FROM
DVLPG AT THE TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MON.
MID/HI LVL MOISTURE INCREASES ACRS THE REGION MON AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPCHG FROM THE NORTHWEST. CIGS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
DURING THE AFTN...WITH MID LVL DECK BECMG PREDOMINANT. MAY SEE SCT
CU DVLP AT KLAF OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE FCST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRNTL BNDRY. SW WINDS FROM 5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AT 20Z...TEMPS ACRS THE CWA WERE IN THE LOW-MID
70S...W/ CLEAR SKIES...AND A WARM SRLY BREEZE. WATER VAPOR SAT
SHOWED A SLUG OF MOISTURE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH NWD ACRS THE WRN GULF
COAST ASSOC. W/ ENERGY SWINGING THRU TX AND A PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING UP FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST.
FCST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY WL BE THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP.
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE LTL IMPACT ON THE FINAL FCST AND A BLEND WAS
USED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WL APCH THE CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NGT
APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT SOME PRECIP APPEARS PSBL
ALONG AND BEHIND IT...PERHAPS EFFECTING THE NW CWA LATE MON
NGT...HAVE MADE LTL CHANGE FM PREV FCST HERE. AS UPR TROF
STRENGTHENS AND SWINGS THRU THE CWA ON TUES...BEST CHC OF PRECIP
XPCTD THEN...BUT AGAIN...W/ LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MEDIOCRE
MOISTURE...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HAVE
RAISED POPS SLGTLY HERE. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPR
TROF...SOME RAINFALL COULD PERSIST ACRS THE EAST EARLY TUES
EVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGE.
ON TEMPS...SPLIT THE DIFF ON WARM MET AND COOL MAV TNGT...AS WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE...BUT THERE WL BE GOOD
RAD COOLING CONDS PRIOR. LEANED TOWARD THE MET TMRW AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WL CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF PERSISTENCE...AND MAV
GRADIENT APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE. MON NGT...GOOD CAA BEGINS AND THUS
WL GO TO THE COOL MAV HERE...THIS CONTINUES INTO TUES...AND W/
PRECIP AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA...LEANED AGAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF MOS
HERE.
IN THE EXTENDED...SIG ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS XPCTD TO RETURN LATER IN
THE WEEK...AND NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE WEEKEND. SAW LTL
REASON TO DEVIATE SIG FM HPC GUIDE.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...NIELD
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS63 KIWX 082137 CCA
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SECOND HALF OF A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED BACK NORTH RESUMING WARM SW FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RISE NEAR 70 ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z MODELS INDICATING SOME VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE H7 AOA 30C WRAPPING
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LAST GASP OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING BUT HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND WITH XOVER
TEMPS EVEN HIGHER IN THE LOW 50S FEEL THAT SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF GRADIENT WINDS...
SOMEWHAT LESS MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...AND POSSIBILITY OF
CIRRUS MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE REGION SHOULD MITIGATE THE MORE DENSE
VARIETY WE SAW THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
POTENTIALLY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE DAWN IN THE WEST PUTTING A CLAMP ON
TEMPERATURE DROP .
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW TODAY WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
TRAILING A LONG COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES SLOW MOVING AS UPPER FLOW
LARGELY PARALLELS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFT/EVENING IS SIMILARLY
PALE WITH LI/S OF -1/-2 AND MUCAPES AOB 200J/KG. ADDITIONALLY BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ALOFT TRASHING LAPSE RATES.
WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER WORDING...AND CONTINUE THE
GOING TREND OF POPS FROM NW TO SE ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL AS LOW
LEVELS ATTEMPT TO SATURATE WITHIN MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON 12Z
MODEL TIMING BUT THE GENERAL APPROACH REMAINS INTACT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO WANE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE
MOVEMENT AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF IDA THIS WEEK WILL
PLAY A STRONG ROLE IN AUGMENTING THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW PATTERN WITH
RAMIFICATIONS IN THIS AREA. THIS LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IS SHOWN WELL
IN THE GEFS RMOP GRAPHICS...WHICH FROM LAST NIGHT/S 00Z SIMULATION
SHOW LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THE GEFS MEAN FORECAST
VERIFYING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN IMPACT OF
IDA WILL LIKELY BE TO SLOW DOWN THE UPSTREAM FLOW PATTERN AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A PRETTY INTENSE CUT OFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
EASTERN US COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF IDA...THE CORE OF LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA WILL MOVE EAST...TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER ALASKA. THIS WILL
PUSH A LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
WESTERN NOAM...WITH IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS OUR AREA IMPEDED
BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMPACTS OF IDA.
FRONT PASSING TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAKE ON A ANA-FRONT STRUCTURE
WITH CONTINUED LIFT WELL BEHIND THE LLEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN
THIS STRUCTURE...AND THE INCREASED AMOUNT OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING...EXPANDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON POPS NORTH AND WEST...AND THIS
TREND MAY HAVE TO BE FURTHERED BY LATER SHIFTS. CLOUDS/PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN...AND WILL CONTINUE CONSERVATIVE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...A LITTLE
BELOW FULLY MIXED T92 VALUES.
THE NICE STRETCH OF MID/LATE WEEK WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE IN
TACT WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL NOT REBOUND EVEN WITH MORE SUN AS COLD
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF WILL
LOWER T92 TO AROUND 3C. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS ALOFT TO REBOUND. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S LOOK
GOOD GIVEN T92 7-8C.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRUDGE EAST...GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
INFLUENCE OF IDA OR IT/S REMNANTS...EXPECT THAT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
THE WEEKEND FOR ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO REACH OUR AREA. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...BUT INTRODUCE CHC POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. CERTAINLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE...BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...BELIEVE POPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO /ABOUT
30 PERCENT AT SBN-FWA / ARE WARRANTED. WILL CONTINUE TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO SATURDAY...AND THEN TREND TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH. THIS YIELDS MID
50S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT PER
MODEL 850-500MB RH FIELDS...A PERIOD OF MVFR BR AGAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON GIVE WAY TO SKC
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT. CLOUDS
INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED TO IMPACT
THE AREA BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PD.
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...LUD
000
FXUS63 KIND 082041
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...AT 20Z...TEMPS ACRS THE CWA WERE IN THE LOW-MID
70S...W/ CLEAR SKIES...AND A WARM SRLY BREEZE. WATER VAPOR SAT
SHOWED A SLUG OF MOISTURE ATTEMPTING TO PUSH NWD ACRS THE WRN GULF
COAST ASSOC. W/ ENERGY SWINGING THRU TX AND A PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMING UP FM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE UPR
MIDWEST.
FCST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY WL BE THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP.
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE LTL IMPACT ON THE FINAL FCST AND A BLEND WAS
USED. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WL APCH THE CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY NGT
APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...BUT SOME PRECIP APPEARS PSBL
ALONG AND BEHIND IT...PERHAPS EFFECTING THE NW CWA LATE MON
NGT...HAVE MADE LTL CHANGE FM PREV FCST HERE. AS UPR TROF
STRENGTHENS AND SWINGS THRU THE CWA ON TUES...BEST CHC OF PRECIP
XPCTD THEN...BUT AGAIN...W/ LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND MEDIOCRE
MOISTURE...DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HAVE
RAISED POPS SLGTLY HERE. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPR
TROF...SOME RAINFALL COULD PERSIST ACRS THE EAST EARLY TUES
EVE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE MAJOR
CHANGE.
ON TEMPS...SPLIT THE DIFF ON WARM MET AND COOL MAV TNGT...AS WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE...BUT THERE WL BE GOOD
RAD COOLING CONDS PRIOR. LEANED TOWARD THE MET TMRW AS INCREASING
CLOUDS WL CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES OFF OF PERSISTENCE...AND MAV
GRADIENT APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE. MON NGT...GOOD CAA BEGINS AND THUS
WL GO TO THE COOL MAV HERE...THIS CONTINUES INTO TUES...AND W/
PRECIP AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA...LEANED AGAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF MOS
HERE.
IN THE EXTENDED...SIG ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS XPCTD TO RETURN LATER IN
THE WEEK...AND NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS WL BE OVER THE WEEKEND. SAW LTL
REASON TO DEVIATE SIG FM HPC GUIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 08/18Z TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT FOG DESPITE SOME HIGH NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE SHOWN IN THE MODEL TIME SECTIONS. AFTER 18Z...WILL START TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS AT IND. MODEL TIME SECTIONS
SUGGEST THIS COULD BE AN MVFR LYR.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...NIELD
AVIATION...MK
000
FXUS63 KIWX 082036
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
336 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SECOND HALF OF A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TODAY AS LAST NIGHTS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED BACK NORTH RESUMING WARM SW FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RISE NEAR 70 ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z MODELS INDICATING SOME VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ABOVE H7 AOA 30C WRAPPING
INTO THE REGION WITH THE LAST GASP OF RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING BUT HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND WITH XOVER
TEMPS EVEN HIGHER IN THE LOW 50S FEEL THAT SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF GRADIENT WINDS...
SOMEWHAT LESS MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER...AND POSSIBILITY OF
CIRRUS MAKING HEADWAY INTO THE REGION SHOULD MITIGATE THE MORE DENSE
VARIETY WE SAW THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
POTENTIALLY ARRIVE JUST BEFORE DAWN IN THE WEST PUTTING A CLAMP ON
TEMPERATURE DROP .
SFC LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NW TODAY WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS THROUGH
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
TRIALING A LONG COLD FRONT THAT BECOMES SLOW MOVING AS UPPER FLOW
LARGELY PARALLELS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE AND
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFT/EVENING IS SIMILARLY
PALE WITH LI/S OF -1/-2 AND MUCAPES AOB 200J/KG. ADDITIONALLY BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE WARM AIR ALOFT TRASHING LAPSE RATES.
WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE THUNDER WORDING...AND CONTINUE THE
GOING TREND OF POPS FROM NW TO SE ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL AS LOW
LEVELS ATTEMPT TO SATURATE WITHIN MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON 12Z
MODEL TIMING BUT THE GENERAL APPROACH REMAINS INTACT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO WANE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE
MOVEMENT AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF IDA THIS WEEK WILL
PLAY A STRONG ROLE IN AUGMENTING THE DOWNSTREAM FLOW PATTERN WITH
RAMIFICATIONS IN THIS AREA. THIS LOSS OF CONFIDENCE IS SHOWN WELL
IN THE GEFS RMOP GRAPHICS...WHICH FROM LAST NIGHT/S 00Z SIMULATION
SHOW LESS THAN A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THE GEFS MEAN FORECAST
VERIFYING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN IMPACT OF
IDA WILL LIKELY BE TO SLOW DOWN THE UPSTREAM FLOW PATTERN AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A PRETTY INTENSE CUT OFF LOW FORMING OFF THE
EASTERN US COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF IDA...THE CORE OF LOW HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA WILL MOVE EAST...TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER ALASKA. THIS WILL
PUSH A LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE
WESTERN NOAM...WITH IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS OUR AREA IMPEDED
BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMPACTS OF IDA.
FRONT PASSING TO START THE PERIOD WILL TAKE ON A ANA-FRONT STRUCTURE
WITH CONTINUED LIFT WELL BEHIND THE LLEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN
THIS STRUCTURE...AND THE INCREASED AMOUNT OF DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING...EXPANDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON POPS NORTH AND WEST...AND THIS
TREND MAY HAVE TO BE FURTHERED BY LATER SHIFTS. CLOUDS/PRECIP
CHANCES WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS DOWN...AND WILL CONTINUE CONSERVATIVE
HIGH TEMP FORECAST...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S...A LITTLE
BELOW FULLY MIXED T92 VALUES.
THE NICE STRETCH OF MID/LATE WEEK WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE IN
TACT WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME
PERIOD. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL NOT REBOUND EVEN WITH MORE SUN AS COLD
ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF DEVELOPING EAST COAST CUTOFF WILL
LOWER T92 TO AROUND 3C. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS ALOFT TO REBOUND. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S LOOK
GOOD GIVEN T92 7-8C.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
TRUDGE EAST...GIVEN PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING
INFLUENCE OF IDA OR IT/S REMNANTS...EXPECT THAT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
THE WEEKEND FOR ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM TO REACH OUR AREA. THEREFORE...
WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...BUT INTRODUCE CHC POPS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY. CERTAINLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS RANGE...BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...BELIEVE POPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO /ABOUT
30 PERCENT AT SBN-FWA / ARE WARRANTED. WILL CONTINUE TEMPS ABOVE
CLIMO SATURDAY...AND THEN TREND TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO SUNDAY GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVING TROUGH. THIS YIELDS MID
50S FOR HIGHS SATURDAY...AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT PER
MODEL 850-500MB RH FIELDS...A PERIOD OF MVFR BR AGAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON GIVE WAY TO SKC
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT. CLOUDS
INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED TO IMPACT
THE AREA BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PD.
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...LUD
000
FXUS63 KIWX 081850
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
150 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PD WITH EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
ABOVE YESTERDAYS LEVELS AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT PER
MODEL 850-500MB RH FIELDS...A PERIOD OF MVFR BR AGAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON GIVE WAY TO SKC
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5KTS TONIGHT. CLOUDS
INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY POISED TO IMPACT
THE AREA BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PD.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AS FOG HAS ESSENTIALLY
CLEARED THE AREA. CLEARED SKY GRIDS TO ZERO THROUGH MIDDAY AGAIN
PER SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. AC DECK OVER ILLINOIS WILL BRING SOME
OPAQUE CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT PERCENTAGE OF
OPAQUE SKY COVER WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND LIKELY OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE TO TEMPERATURES. SPEAKING OF...BUMPED TEMPS UP
GENERALLY 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES FROM
H92 REVEAL TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN 70 OVER MOST AREAS TODAY.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ERLY AM WORDING FOR PTCHY GROUND FOG. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
VARIABLE OWING TO LACK OF FOG DEPTH. GRDL INCRS IN MIXING DEPTH TWRD
DAYBREAK IS ALSO PSBL AS PRES GRD ICRS. CONTD UPWARD TREND ON
TEMPS SPCLY DY1 WITH RELATIVELY WARM START AND 1000-850 THERMAL
AXIS TO SET UP FM CNTL MO TO NWRN PART OF CWA BY THIS EVENING WITH
PROJECTED MAX TEMPS HOLDING JUST BLO NOV 8 RECORDS. FAVOR A
SIMILAR DIURNAL TREND AS YDAY WITH STRONG INSOLATION/WAA PATTERN.
STRONGER SRLY BACKGROUND FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE KBEH FM STRONG COLD
AIR DRAINAGE AS SEEN THIS AM WITH TEMPS INTO UPR 30S BY 07 UTC
THIS AM...WILL HOWEVER FAVOR A BIT COOLER THAN MOS TONIGHT. NRN
STREAM WAVE ACRS NRN ROCKIES COMBINE WITH CHIHUAHUAN DESERT/
EDWARDS PLATEAU DISTURBANCE TO AFFORD PROLONGED 7-5H HEIGHT FALL
AXIS AHEAD OF FNTL S FOR GENERAL ASCENT...DESPITE LLJ AXIS AND SFC
LOW PUSHING WELL N/NE OF CWA. FOCUS OF WX IN MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD
WITH LITTLE TIMING DIFF SEEN IN SREF/GFS/NAM. BY F42 I295 UPGLIDE
WITH AID OF 8-9 G/KG MSTR TAP SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SHRA
OVERCOME INITIALLY HI CPDS GIVEN H8-H5 DRY LYR FM NW TO SE ACRS CWA
THRU MON NIGHT AND HAVE AFFORDED SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL RESOLUTION
TO CHC POPS. RELUCTANT AT THIS TIME TO TREND HIR THAN 50 POP NRN
CWA GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCED ASCENT AND SLIGHT DOWNWARD
MODIFICATION OF HPC PRECIP AMNTS.
LONG TERM...
CDFNT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD TUE MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A BAND
OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY TUE IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS. RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WRT LOCATION
OF THIS BAND HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD, BUT 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH .1-.25" QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGH CHC TO LOW
LIKELY MOS POPS... SO TRENDED OUR POPS UP FOR TUE. NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM TUE...STAYED CLOSE TO
GOING FCST HIGHS IN THE L-M50S. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TUE NGT IN THE WAKE TUE`S SHRTWV, PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS CAUSING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO DVLP OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GOING MINS IN
L-M30S WHICH ARE A BIT BLO LATEST MEX FCSTS.
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT DIGGING SHRTWV WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE GRTLKS TUE WILL CLOSE OFF NR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS IT
PSBLY MERGES WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA BY THU MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF RIDGE FROM THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE ERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND LIKELY CAUSE
WKNG/DEFLECTION NEWD OF NEXT SGFNT SHRTWV TO MOVE FM THE ERN
PACIFIC ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS AND TO THE UPR GRTLKS DURING
THIS PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER MAINTAINING STRENGTH OF
THIS SHRTWV AND BREAKING DOWN ERN RIDGE FASTER THAN ECMWF/GLOBAL
GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ECMWF SUGGESTS IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS
WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE PD, IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, SO FOR NOW CONTD WITH A DRY WX FOR SATURDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH LIGHT WINDS WED, AND
GRADUAL WARMUP THU-FRI AS RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH DVLPS
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LUD
000
FXUS63 KIND 081631
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1130 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 08/18Z TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT FOG DESPITE SOME HIGH NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE SHOWN IN THE MODEL TIME SECTIONS. AFTER 18Z...WILL START TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS AT IND. MODEL TIME SECTIONS
SUGGEST THIS COULD BE AN MVFR LYR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...DOMINATE HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AND LOW PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE WRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN A
WARM SW FLOW INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE UPPER LVLS A
RIDGE WAS FOUND ACRS THE SERN STS...WHILE THE JET STREAMED FROM
WESTERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE TEMPS AND THE NEXT BEST CHC FOR RAIN.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WE WL USE A BLEND. UPPER RIDGE OVR
THE SE STS WL BUILD ACRS INDIANA AND ANOTHER DRY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE DRY AS ARE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CU
RULE IS VERY POSITIVE. THUS SUNNY SKIES TDY. WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR 13C
WE SHOULD EASILY BEAT MAVMOS HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. WL GO AOA
PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
RIDGE WL HOLD EVER SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS
TONIGHT AS A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS COULD START DRIFTING IN ON WEAK
RETURN FLOW. WL CONTINUE A INCREASING CLOUD TREND TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TOP
DOWN TYPE OF SATURATION OCCURRING. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WL AGAIN STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS AS H8 TEMPS STILL REMAIN WARM.
UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO APPROACH INDIANA ON MON NIGHT...BUT ATTM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR RATHER DRY IN THE LOWER LVLS AND STRONG
RIDGES LIKE THE ONE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACRS INDIANA TDY ARE OFTEN
SLOW TO MOVE EAST. THUS ATTM CONFIDENCE FOR PCPN ON MON NIGHT IS
RATHER LOW. WL USE A DRY FORECAST AND CONT THE INCREASING CLOUD
TREND...ALONG WITH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MAVMOS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN NOW REMAINS ON TUES AS THE QUICK MOVING UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPS OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS. WL KEEP PCPN
MENTION LIMITED TO TUE...WITH BEST CHCS ACRS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FA
AS DYNAMICS ARE BEST IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE CHCS FOR RAIN AND
CLOUDS...WL LEAN COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PUMA
AVIATION...MK
000
FXUS63 KIWX 081545
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1045 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AS FOG HAS ESSENTIALLY
CLEARED THE AREA. CLEARED SKY GRIDS TO ZERO THROUGH MIDDAY AGAIN
PER SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. AC DECK OVER ILLINOIS WILL BRING SOME
OPAQUE CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT PERCENTAGE OF
OPAQUE SKY COVER WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND LIKELY OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE TO TEMPERATURES. SPEAKING OF...BUMPED TEMPS UP
GENERALLY 3 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD AS MIX DOWN TECHNIQUES FROM
H92 REVEAL TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN 70 OVER MOST AREAS TODAY.
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AVIATION...
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. FOG
IS VERY SHALLOW AND THUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
STALLED CDFNT OVER THE AREA ATTM WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHER THAN BOUNDARY LAYER, AIR
MASS IS QUITE DRY SO JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT S-SW WINDS SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, PREVENTING A
REPEAT OF FOG FORMATION. 35KT LLJ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING SOME LLWS THREAT... HELD OFF ADDING ATTM
SINCE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AND LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ERLY AM WORDING FOR PTCHY GROUND FOG. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
VARIABLE OWING TO LACK OF FOG DEPTH. GRDL INCRS IN MIXING DEPTH TWRD
DAYBREAK IS ALSO PSBL AS PRES GRD ICRS. CONTD UPWARD TREND ON
TEMPS SPCLY DY1 WITH RELATIVELY WARM START AND 1000-850 THERMAL
AXIS TO SET UP FM CNTL MO TO NWRN PART OF CWA BY THIS EVENING WITH
PROJECTED MAX TEMPS HOLDING JUST BLO NOV 8 RECORDS. FAVOR A
SIMILAR DIURNAL TREND AS YDAY WITH STRONG INSOLATION/WAA PATTERN.
STRONGER SRLY BACKGROUND FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE KBEH FM STRONG COLD
AIR DRAINAGE AS SEEN THIS AM WITH TEMPS INTO UPR 30S BY 07 UTC
THIS AM...WILL HOWEVER FAVOR A BIT COOLER THAN MOS TONIGHT. NRN
STREAM WAVE ACRS NRN ROCKIES COMBINE WITH CHIHUAHUAN DESERT/
EDWARDS PLATEAU DISTURBANCE TO AFFORD PROLONGED 7-5H HEIGHT FALL
AXIS AHEAD OF FNTL S FOR GENERAL ASCENT...DESPITE LLJ AXIS AND SFC
LOW PUSHING WELL N/NE OF CWA. FOCUS OF WX IN MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD
WITH LITTLE TIMING DIFF SEEN IN SREF/GFS/NAM. BY F42 I295 UPGLIDE
WITH AID OF 8-9 G/KG MSTR TAP SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SHRA
OVERCOME INITIALLY HI CPDS GIVEN H8-H5 DRY LYR FM NW TO SE ACRS CWA
THRU MON NIGHT AND HAVE AFFORDED SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL RESOLUTION
TO CHC POPS. RELUCTANT AT THIS TIME TO TREND HIR THAN 50 POP NRN
CWA GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCED ASCENT AND SLIGHT DOWNWARD
MODIFICATION OF HPC PRECIP AMNTS.
LONG TERM...
CDFNT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD TUE MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A BAND
OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY TUE IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS. RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WRT LOCATION
OF THIS BAND HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD, BUT 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH .1-.25" QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGH CHC TO LOW
LIKELY MOS POPS... SO TRENDED OUR POPS UP FOR TUE. NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM TUE...STAYED CLOSE TO
GOING FCST HIGHS IN THE L-M50S. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TUE NGT IN THE WAKE TUE`S SHRTWV, PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS CAUSING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO DVLP OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GOING MINS IN
L-M30S WHICH ARE A BIT BLO LATEST MEX FCSTS.
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT DIGGING SHRTWV WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE GRTLKS TUE WILL CLOSE OFF NR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS IT
PSBLY MERGES WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA BY THU MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF RIDGE FROM THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE ERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND LIKELY CAUSE
WKNG/DEFLECTION NEWD OF NEXT SGFNT SHRTWV TO MOVE FM THE ERN
PACIFIC ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS AND TO THE UPR GRTLKS DURING
THIS PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER MAINTAINING STRENGTH OF
THIS SHRTWV AND BREAKING DOWN ERN RIDGE FASTER THAN ECMWF/GLOBAL
GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ECMWF SUGGESTS IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS
WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE PD, IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, SO FOR NOW CONTD WITH A DRY WX FOR SATURDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH LIGHT WINDS WED, AND
GRADUAL WARMUP THU-FRI AS RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH DVLPS
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
UPDATE...SIMPSON
000
FXUS63 KIWX 081155
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. FOG
IS VERY SHALLOW AND THUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
STALLED CDFNT OVER THE AREA ATTM WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY ALLOWING
FOR A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHER THAN BOUNDARY LAYER, AIR
MASS IS QUITE DRY SO JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT S-SW WINDS SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, PREVENTING A
REPEAT OF FOG FORMATION. 35KT LLJ SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING SOME LLWS THREAT... HELD OFF ADDING ATTM
SINCE THREAT LOOKS MARGINAL AND LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
ERLY AM WORDING FOR PTCHY GROUND FOG. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
VARIABLE OWING TO LACK OF FOG DEPTH. GRDL INCRS IN MIXING DEPTH TWRD
DAYBREAK IS ALSO PSBL AS PRES GRD ICRS. CONTD UPWARD TREND ON
TEMPS SPCLY DY1 WITH RELATIVELY WARM START AND 1000-850 THERMAL
AXIS TO SET UP FM CNTL MO TO NWRN PART OF CWA BY THIS EVENING WITH
PROJECTED MAX TEMPS HOLDING JUST BLO NOV 8 RECORDS. FAVOR A
SIMILAR DIURNAL TREND AS YDAY WITH STRONG INSOLATION/WAA PATTERN.
STRONGER SRLY BACKGROUND FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE KBEH FM STRONG COLD
AIR DRAINAGE AS SEEN THIS AM WITH TEMPS INTO UPR 30S BY 07 UTC
THIS AM...WILL HOWEVER FAVOR A BIT COOLER THAN MOS TONIGHT. NRN
STREAM WAVE ACRS NRN ROCKIES COMBINE WITH CHIHUAHUAN DESERT/
EDWARDS PLATEAU DISTURBANCE TO AFFORD PROLONGED 7-5H HEIGHT FALL
AXIS AHEAD OF FNTL S FOR GENERAL ASCENT...DESPITE LLJ AXIS AND SFC
LOW PUSHING WELL N/NE OF CWA. FOCUS OF WX IN MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD
WITH LITTLE TIMING DIFF SEEN IN SREF/GFS/NAM. BY F42 I295 UPGLIDE
WITH AID OF 8-9 G/KG MSTR TAP SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SHRA
OVERCOME INITIALLY HI CPDS GIVEN H8-H5 DRY LYR FM NW TO SE ACRS CWA
THRU MON NIGHT AND HAVE AFFORDED SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL RESOLUTION
TO CHC POPS. RELUCTANT AT THIS TIME TO TREND HIR THAN 50 POP NRN
CWA GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCED ASCENT AND SLIGHT DOWNWARD
MODIFICATION OF HPC PRECIP AMNTS.
LONG TERM...
CDFNT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD TUE MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A BAND
OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY TUE IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS. RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WRT LOCATION
OF THIS BAND HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD, BUT 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH .1-.25" QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGH CHC TO LOW
LIKELY MOS POPS... SO TRENDED OUR POPS UP FOR TUE. NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM TUE...STAYED CLOSE TO
GOING FCST HIGHS IN THE L-M50S. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TUE NGT IN THE WAKE TUE`S SHRTWV, PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS CAUSING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO DVLP OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GOING MINS IN
L-M30S WHICH ARE A BIT BLO LATEST MEX FCSTS.
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT DIGGING SHRTWV WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE GRTLKS TUE WILL CLOSE OFF NR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS IT
PSBLY MERGES WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA BY THU MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF RIDGE FROM THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE ERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND LIKELY CAUSE
WKNG/DEFLECTION NEWD OF NEXT SGFNT SHRTWV TO MOVE FM THE ERN
PACIFIC ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS AND TO THE UPR GRTLKS DURING
THIS PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER MAINTAINING STRENGTH OF
THIS SHRTWV AND BREAKING DOWN ERN RIDGE FASTER THAN ECMWF/GLOBAL
GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ECMWF SUGGESTS IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS
WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE PD, IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, SO FOR NOW CONTD WITH A DRY WX FOR SATURDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH LIGHT WINDS WED, AND
GRADUAL WARMUP THU-FRI AS RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH DVLPS
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
000
FXUS63 KIND 081143
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
643 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KLAF
TONIGHT...WHICH FELL TO IFR AND MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HI PRES AND DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TOM. SFC LO WILL DRIFT TO NORTH...AND FA WILL BE
IN BRIEF WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SFC LO WILL SLIDE TO NE
TONIGHT...DRAWING MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND RIDGE WILL
START BREAKING DOWN. SO...SLOWLY STARTED TRENDING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT/TOM MORN. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE SHOWING
SATURATION IN UPPER LEVELS...AND THEN SLOWLY INTO LOWER LEVELS TOM
NIGHT. NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS PAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...DOMINATE HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AND LOW PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE WRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN A
WARM SW FLOW INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE UPPER LVLS A
RIDGE WAS FOUND ACRS THE SERN STS...WHILE THE JET STREAMED FROM
WESTERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE TEMPS AND THE NEXT BEST CHC FOR RAIN.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WE WL USE A BLEND. UPPER RIDGE OVR
THE SE STS WL BUILD ACRS INDIANA AND ANOTHER DRY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE DRY AS ARE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CU
RULE IS VERY POSITIVE. THUS SUNNY SKIES TDY. WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR 13C
WE SHOULD EASILY BEAT MAVMOS HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. WL GO AOA
PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
RIDGE WL HOLD EVER SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS
TONIGHT AS A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS COULD START DRIFTING IN ON WEAK
RETURN FLOW. WL CONTINUE A INCREASING CLOUD TREND TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TOP
DOWN TYPE OF SATURATION OCCURRING. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WL AGAIN STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS AS H8 TEMPS STILL REMAIN WARM.
UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO APPROACH INDIANA ON MON NIGHT...BUT ATTM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR RATHER DRY IN THE LOWER LVLS AND STRONG
RIDGES LIKE THE ONE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACRS INDIANA TDY ARE OFTEN
SLOW TO MOVE EAST. THUS ATTM CONFIDENCE FOR PCPN ON MON NIGHT IS
RATHER LOW. WL USE A DRY FORECAST AND CONT THE INCREASING CLOUD
TREND...ALONG WITH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MAVMOS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN NOW REMAINS ON TUES AS THE QUICK MOVING UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPS OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS. WL KEEP PCPN
MENTION LIMITED TO TUE...WITH BEST CHCS ACRS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FA
AS DYNAMICS ARE BEST IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE CHCS FOR RAIN AND
CLOUDS...WL LEAN COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD
000
FXUS63 KIWX 080950
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
450 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
ERLY AM WORDING FOR PTCHY GROUND FOG. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN QUITE
VARIABLE OWING TO LACK OF FOG DEPTH. GRDL INCRS IN MIXING DEPTH TWRD
DAYBREAK IS ALSO PSBL AS PRES GRD ICRS. CONTD UPWARD TREND ON
TEMPS SPCLY DY1 WITH RELATIVELY WARM START AND 1000-850 THERMAL
AXIS TO SET UP FM CNTL MO TO NWRN PART OF CWA BY THIS EVENING WITH
PROJECTED MAX TEMPS HOLDING JUST BLO NOV 8 RECORDS. FAVOR A
SIMILAR DIURNAL TREND AS YDAY WITH STRONG INSOLATION/WAA PATTERN.
STRONGER SRLY BACKGROUND FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE KBEH FM STRONG COLD
AIR DRAINAGE AS SEEN THIS AM WITH TEMPS INTO UPR 30S BY 07 UTC
THIS AM...WILL HOWEVER FAVOR A BIT COOLER THAN MOS TONIGHT. NRN
STREAM WAVE ACRS NRN ROCKIES COMBINE WITH CHIHUAHUAN DESERT/
EDWARDS PLATEAU DISTURBANCE TO AFFORD PROLONGED 7-5H HEIGHT FALL
AXIS AHEAD OF FNTL S FOR GENERAL ASCENT...DESPITE LLJ AXIS AND SFC
LOW PUSHING WELL N/NE OF CWA. FOCUS OF WX IN MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD
WITH LITTLE TIMING DIFF SEEN IN SREF/GFS/NAM. BY F42 I295 UPGLIDE
WITH AID OF 8-9 G/KG MSTR TAP SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SHRA
OVERCOME INITIALLY HI CPDS GIVEN H8-H5 DRY LYR FM NW TO SE ACRS CWA
THRU MON NIGHT AND HAVE AFFORDED SOME TEMPORAL/SPATIAL RESOLUTION
TO CHC POPS. RELUCTANT AT THIS TIME TO TREND HIR THAN 50 POP NRN
CWA GIVEN LACK OF STRONG FORCED ASCENT AND SLIGHT DOWNWARD
MODIFICATION OF HPC PRECIP AMNTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
CDFNT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PD TUE MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SUGGESTING A BAND
OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY TUE IN
RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MOVG INTO THE GRTLKS. RUN-RUN CONTINUITY WRT LOCATION
OF THIS BAND HAS NOT BEEN VERY GOOD, BUT 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH .1-.25" QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGH CHC TO LOW
LIKELY MOS POPS... SO TRENDED OUR POPS UP FOR TUE. NAM/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS MOS TEMPS ARE TOO WARM TUE...STAYED CLOSE TO
GOING FCST HIGHS IN THE L-M50S. RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA TUE NGT IN THE WAKE TUE`S SHRTWV, PROVIDING CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS CAUSING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TO DVLP OVERNIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO GOING MINS IN
L-M30S WHICH ARE A BIT BLO LATEST MEX FCSTS.
00Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT DIGGING SHRTWV WHICH MOVES THROUGH
THE GRTLKS TUE WILL CLOSE OFF NR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS IT
PSBLY MERGES WITH REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA BY THU MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF RIDGE FROM THE GRTLKS
THROUGH THE ERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK AND LIKELY CAUSE
WKNG/DEFLECTION NEWD OF NEXT SGFNT SHRTWV TO MOVE FM THE ERN
PACIFIC ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PLAINS AND TO THE UPR GRTLKS DURING
THIS PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER MAINTAINING STRENGTH OF
THIS SHRTWV AND BREAKING DOWN ERN RIDGE FASTER THAN ECMWF/GLOBAL
GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. ECMWF SUGGESTS IF ANY PRECIP OCCURS
WITH THIS SYSTEM IN OUR AREA LATE IN THE PD, IT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, SO FOR NOW CONTD WITH A DRY WX FOR SATURDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH LIGHT WINDS WED, AND
GRADUAL WARMUP THU-FRI AS RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH DVLPS
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHALLOW MOISTURE...WITH SFC DPS POOLED INTO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ACRS
NRN IN...REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INCRGLY STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION
THIS AM. WITH WINDS DECOUPLED AT KSBN IN PRESCENCE OF COL AND 3-4F
SPREAD HAVE STRUCK A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EMPHASIS HERE WITH A 3 HR
TEMPO GROUP OF IFR/1SM BR. CONTD MIXED SWRLY WIND TO SFC AT KFWA MAY
DELAY BR FORMATION AND KEEP DEPTH MORE SHALLOW. OTHERWISE VFR BY MID
AM AND THROUGH REMAINDER OF FCST PD AND BEYOND WITH SRLY MIXED BL
WITH WEAK MSTR PROFILE INTO MON AFTN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MURPHY
000
FXUS63 KIND 080645
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
145 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...DOMINATE HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING AND LOW PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE WRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN A
WARM SW FLOW INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE UPPER LVLS A
RIDGE WAS FOUND ACRS THE SERN STS...WHILE THE JET STREAMED FROM
WESTERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE TEMPS AND THE NEXT BEST CHC FOR RAIN.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WE WL USE A BLEND. UPPER RIDGE OVR
THE SE STS WL BUILD ACRS INDIANA AND ANOTHER DRY PLEASANT DAY IS IN
STORE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE DRY AS ARE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CU
RULE IS VERY POSITIVE. THUS SUNNY SKIES TDY. WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR 13C
WE SHOULD EASILY BEAT MAVMOS HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. WL GO AOA
PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
RIDGE WL HOLD EVER SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS
TONIGHT AS A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS COULD START DRIFTING IN ON WEAK
RETURN FLOW. WL CONTINUE A INCREASING CLOUD TREND TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TOP
DOWN TYPE OF SATURATION OCCURRING. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WL AGAIN STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS AS H8 TEMPS STILL REMAIN WARM.
UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO APPROACH INDIANA ON MON NIGHT...BUT ATTM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR RATHER DRY IN THE LOWER LVLS AND STRONG
RIDGES LIKE THE ONE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACRS INDIANA TDY ARE OFTEN
SLOW TO MOVE EAST. THUS ATTM CONFIDENCE FOR PCPN ON MON NIGHT IS
RATHER LOW. WL USE A DRY FORECAST AND CONT THE INCREASING CLOUD
TREND...ALONG WITH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MAVMOS.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN NOW REMAINS ON TUES AS THE QUICK MOVING UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPS OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS. WL KEEP PCPN
MENTION LIMITED TO TUE...WITH BEST CHCS ACRS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FA
AS DYNAMICS ARE BEST IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE CHCS FOR RAIN AND
CLOUDS...WL LEAN COOLER THAN MAVMOS.
&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 08/06Z TAFS.
WEAK FRNTL BNDRY NEARLY STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA LATE
THIS EVNG. SKIES REMAINED MSTLY CLR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY FEW
CI DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. 00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTING IDEA OF
LESS SC DVLPG PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE REGION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BNDRY. WILL MAINTAIN SCT SC MENTION AT
TERMINALS AFT 08-09Z AND CONSIDERING SHALLOW LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT
SRLY FLO ANTICIPATE MVFR VSBYS WILL DVLP THRU DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
AT KLAF AND KHUF.
FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY AS UPR RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHES
ACRS OH VLY. SKIES WILL BECOME MSTLY SUNNY AS DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECT INTO THE REGION. SRLY WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS63 KIWX 080606
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
105 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...
SHALLOW MOISTURE...WITH SFC DPS POOLED INTO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ACRS
NRN IN...REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH INCRGLY STRONG SFC BASED INVERSION
THIS AM. WITH WINDS DECOUPLED AT KSBN IN PRESCENCE OF COL AND 3-4F
SPREAD HAVE STRUCK A SLIGHTLY STRONGER EMPHASIS HERE WITH A 3 HR
TEMPO GROUP OF IFR/1SM BR. CONTD MIXED SWRLY WIND TO SFC AT KFWA MAY
DELAY BR FORMATION AND KEEP DEPTH MORE SHALLOW. OTHERWISE VFR BY MID
AM AND THROUGH REMAINDER OF FCST PD AND BEYOND WITH SRLY MIXED BL
WITH WEAK MSTR PROFILE INTO MON AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER AFTERNOON UNDERWAY BENEATH FULL SUNSHINE
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST YET A
TOTAL LACK OF CLOUD COVER AS THIN NEAR SFC MOIST LAYER INSUFFICIENT
IN THE FACE OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MIXING TO NEAR H92 HAS
TOPPED OUT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THE LOW 70S SOUTHWEST...WITH BREEZY SW WINDS AROUND RIDGING OVER
THE SE CONUS CONTINUING WAA INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND APPROACHING BOUNDARY STALLS...EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL TO XOVER TEMPS WHICH ARE JUST BELOW 50 ACROSS THE
CWA. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW H92 ALONG THE
STALING BNDRY ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...THOUGH THIS IS
LESS CERTAIN ALONG NORTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN PROGGED POSITION
MOISTURE ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FOCUSED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ON SUNDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
CWA QUICKLY RETURNS TO SW FLOW ONCE AGAIN PUSHING THE BNDRY BACK
NORTH ALONG WITH ASSOC LLEVEL MOISTURE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THIS
IS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF CLOUDS OR IF MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO OVERDO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AS THEY DID FOR TODAY. FEELING IS THAT WHILE SOME
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IT WONT BE ENOUGH TO DAMPEN DIURNAL WARMUP
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILL FOLLOW NAM12 WHICH HAD BETTER HANDLE ON
TODAYS TEMP PROFILES. AS SUCH... ITS PROGS FOR H92 TEMPS ARE QUITE
SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN TODAYS INSOLATION AND RESULTANT MIXING ARE
COMPLETELY IDEAL...TOMORROW MAY DO WELL TO APPROACH THE SAME
READINGS RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS MUCH LIKE TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN INTENSE JET FROM
SIBERIA EAST INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. ANOTHER...WEAKER
JET IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND HELPING TO PUSH A DISTURBANCE INTO WESTERN NOAM TODAY/TONIGHT
THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONG UPSTREAM JET WILL HELP DISLODGE THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW AND
PUSH IT TOWARDS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A NEW LOW HEIGHT CENTER
SETTING UP OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE OVERALL SPLIT NATURE OF THE FLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL
ALSO BE SLOWER MOVING THAN THE EARLY WEAK DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL
MOBILE AND WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY...AND
DIVERGES QUICKLY AFTER THIS POINT WITH THE 12Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
IN PUSHING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING EASTWARD WITH THE ECMWF
SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND THE GGEM SLOWER STILL. FOR THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF/GGEM TIMING GIVEN THE
GFS/S PROPENSITY TO EJECT THESE FEATURES TOO QUICKLY...WHICH IS
CONFIRMED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN IT/S CONTROL MEMBER.
PERIOD STARTS WITH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AS THE H25 FLOW BEGINS TO BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AND EAST FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND IT/S ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS MAY LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING A LITTLE...BUT WITH T92 JUST BELOW 15C WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. STILL DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GIVEN A VERY
MEAGER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PREVENTING ANY GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP...BUT WITH A FROPA LIKELY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
UNDER DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY...BUT T92 BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DOESN/T FALL MUCH BELOW 5C...SO
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S LOOKS GOOD...VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A POTENT SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS IN THE CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT UPSTREAM FROM STRENGTHENING TROUGHING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN US COAST. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...PARTICULARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE MOVE WEST OF THE H5/H2 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY
UNDER MODEST WARM ADVECTION IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO THE LOWER 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLEVEL
MOISTURE.
BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THE TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EAST AS FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
FOLLOWING THE SLOWER ECMWF/GGEM TIMING STILL SUGGESTS THAT WE CAN
SQUEAK OUT SATURDAY WITHOUT ANY RAINFALL. WILL HOLD THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE SATURDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP TEMPS
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO...BUT NO HIGHER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN JUST HOW FAR EAST THE WESTERN TROUGH MAKES IT BY THIS POINT IN
THE FORECAST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...MURPHY
000
FXUS63 KIND 080447
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 08/06Z TAFS.
WEAK FRNTL BNDRY NEARLY STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST AREA LATE
THIS EVNG. SKIES REMAINED MSTLY CLR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH ONLY FEW
CI DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. 00Z MODEL DATA SUPPORTING IDEA OF
LESS SC DVLPG PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS MOISTURE POOLS OVER THE REGION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BNDRY. WILL MAINTAIN SCT SC MENTION AT
TERMINALS AFT 08-09Z AND CONSIDERING SHALLOW LO LVL MOISTURE AND LGT
SRLY FLO ANTICIPATE MVFR VSBYS WILL DVLP THRU DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
AT KLAF AND KHUF.
FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY AS UPR RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHES
ACRS OH VLY. SKIES WILL BECOME MSTLY SUNNY AS DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECT INTO THE REGION. SRLY WINDS TO AROUND 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FCST WL BE CLOUD COVER TNGT...TEMPS TNGT AND
TOMORROW AND TIMING/CVRG OF RW`S EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A NRN
STREAM S/W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CD FNT.
VSBL SATELLITE PIX REVEALED FULL SS ACRS THE OH VLY AND LWR GT LKS
WHICH ALONG WITH GUSTY SW LOW LVL FLOW HAS ALLOWED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACRS CNTRL INDIANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC ANLYS REVEALED HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE NC
COAST AND A CD FNT FM SERN WI TO NRN MO. FINALLY...UPR PATTERN
FEATURED FAST ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE OH VLY WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS NWRN
MEXICO.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE TO POOL AHEAD OF
THE CD FNT TNGT AS IT STALLS ACRS THE SRN GT LKS. WL DISCOUNT THE
GFS AS IT ALREADY HAD 95% RH AT 925 MB THIS AFTERNOON ACRS THE LOWER
GT LKS AND OH VLY AND YET THERE WAS NOT EVEN A PUFF OF CU. SO FAVOR
THE CANADIAN MODEL REGARDING LOW LVL MOISTURE PATTERN THAT WOULD
ONLY BRING SCT AT BEST CU ACRS THE FA TNGT. THUS...WENT WITH THE
COOLER GFS MOS TNGT. ALTHOUGH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
TNGT...SW WINDS SHOULD STILL STAY 5 KTS OR MORE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
FOG FM FORMING. TOMORROW...MODELS AGREE ON 15-16 DEGREES AT 850 MB
WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE
SIMILAR GFS AND NAM MOS AS THEY HAVE DONE TODAY WITH AGAIN NEAR FULL
SS EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKING LIKE MON NGT AND TUES ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE LWR GT LKS ON TUES
ALONG WITH A WEAK CD FNT. WENT WITH TIMING OF THE 00Z EURO AS IT HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTANT AND IS FAVORED BY HPC. ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FCST WL BE TO INTRODUCE A SLGT CHANCE OF RW`S SERN ZONES MON NGT.
KEPT SMALL CHC POPS IN ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN MIDWEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER CD FNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
THUS...INTRODUCED CHC POPS THEN COINCIDING WITH QPF FM BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MK
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS63 KIWX 072321
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
620 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
SUBTLE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE VERY SHALLOW AND LIMITED AND FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
SEEN ON SATELLITE WITH THIS BOUNDARY. WITH COOLING OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM...MVFR BR A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
ISSUANCE FOR CONTINUITY AS THIS STILL POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING AND AID IN
MOVING WEAK BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER AFTERNOON UNDERWAY BENEATH FULL SUNSHINE
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST YET A
TOTAL LACK OF CLOUD COVER AS THIN NEAR SFC MOIST LAYER INSUFFICIENT
IN THE FACE OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MIXING TO NEAR H92 HAS
TOPPED OUT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THE LOW 70S SOUTHWEST...WITH BREEZY SW WINDS AROUND RIDGING OVER
THE SE CONUS CONTINUING WAA INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND APPROACHING BOUNDARY STALLS...EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL TO XOVER TEMPS WHICH ARE JUST BELOW 50 ACROSS THE
CWA. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW H92 ALONG THE
STALING BNDRY ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...THOUGH THIS IS
LESS CERTAIN ALONG NORTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN PROGGED POSITION
MOISTURE ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FOCUSED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ON SUNDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
CWA QUICKLY RETURNS TO SW FLOW ONCE AGAIN PUSHING THE BNDRY BACK
NORTH ALONG WITH ASSOC LLEVEL MOISTURE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THIS
IS ENOUGH TO KICK OFF CLOUDS OR IF MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO OVERDO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AS THEY DID FOR TODAY. FEELING IS THAT WHILE SOME
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IT WONT BE ENOUGH TO DAMPEN DIURNAL WARMUP
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILL FOLLOW NAM12 WHICH HAD BETTER HANDLE ON
TODAYS TEMP PROFILES. AS SUCH... ITS PROGS FOR H92 TEMPS ARE QUITE
SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN TODAYS INSOLATION AND RESULTANT MIXING ARE
COMPLETELY IDEAL...TOMORROW MAY DO WELL TO APPROACH THE SAME
READINGS RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS MUCH LIKE TODAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN INTENSE JET FROM
SIBERIA EAST INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. ANOTHER...WEAKER
JET IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND HELPING TO PUSH A DISTURBANCE INTO WESTERN NOAM TODAY/TONIGHT
THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONG UPSTREAM JET WILL HELP DISLODGE THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW AND
PUSH IT TOWARDS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A NEW LOW HEIGHT CENTER
SETTING UP OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE OVERALL SPLIT NATURE OF THE FLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL
ALSO BE SLOWER MOVING THAN THE EARLY WEAK DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL
MOBILE AND WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY...AND
DIVERGES QUICKLY AFTER THIS POINT WITH THE 12Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
IN PUSHING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING EASTWARD WITH THE ECMWF
SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND THE GGEM SLOWER STILL. FOR THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF/GGEM TIMING GIVEN THE
GFS/S PROPENSITY TO EJECT THESE FEATURES TOO QUICKLY...WHICH IS
CONFIRMED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN IT/S CONTROL MEMBER.
PERIOD STARTS WITH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AS THE H25 FLOW BEGINS TO BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AND EAST FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND IT/S ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS MAY LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING A LITTLE...BUT WITH T92 JUST BELOW 15C WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. STILL DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GIVEN A VERY
MEAGER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PREVENTING ANY GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP...BUT WITH A FROPA LIKELY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
UNDER DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY...BUT T92 BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DOESN/T FALL MUCH BELOW 5C...SO
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S LOOKS GOOD...VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A POTENT SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS IN THE CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT UPSTREAM FROM STRENGTHENING TROUGHING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN US COAST. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...PARTICULARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE MOVE WEST OF THE H5/H2 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY
UNDER MODEST WARM ADVECTION IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO THE LOWER 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLEVEL
MOISTURE.
BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THE TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EAST AS FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
FOLLOWING THE SLOWER ECMWF/GGEM TIMING STILL SUGGESTS THAT WE CAN
SQUEAK OUT SATURDAY WITHOUT ANY RAINFALL. WILL HOLD THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE SATURDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP TEMPS
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO...BUT NO HIGHER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN JUST HOW FAR EAST THE WESTERN TROUGH MAKES IT BY THIS POINT IN
THE FORECAST.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...LASHLEY
000
FXUS63 KIND 072320
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
620 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 08/00Z TAFS.
WEAK FRNTL BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION OVER THE CNTRL GRT LKS
THIS EVNG WITH HI PRES AND CLR SKIES TO THE SOUTH ACRS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST AND OH VLY. WIND GUSTS HAVE SLACKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE
ONSET OF NIGHTFALL...AND EXPECT LIGHT S/SW FLO FOR THE DURATION OF
THE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION STILL FOCUSES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO POOL ACRS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE FCST AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DVLPMNT AND EXPANSION OF SC
LATE...BUT COVERAGE TO CLOUDS REMAINS IN QUESTION. HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDCG JUST SCT MVFR SC AFT 07-08Z AND PERSISTING THRU MID MRNG
SUNDAY. WHILE PERIODS OF BKN SC MAY OCCUR AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS...
DO NOT HAVE ENUF CONFIDENCE TO INDICATE IN FCST ATTM. CONSIDERING
TDS IN THE U40S AS WELL...SOME LOCALIZED MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE NEAR
DAYBREAK.
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH ANY CLOUD
COVER PUSHING NORTH WITH IT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD LEAVE FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE FOR SUN AFTN WITH ONLY SOME CI EXPECTED. SRLY WINDS TO
10 KTS ARE LIKELY THRU THE AFTN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FCST WL BE CLOUD COVER TNGT...TEMPS TNGT AND
TOMORROW AND TIMING/CVRG OF RW`S EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A NRN
STREAM S/W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CD FNT.
VSBL SATELLITE PIX REVEALED FULL SS ACRS THE OH VLY AND LWR GT LKS
WHICH ALONG WITH GUSTY SW LOW LVL FLOW HAS ALLOWED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACRS CNTRL INDIANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC ANLYS REVEALED HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE NC
COAST AND A CD FNT FM SERN WI TO NRN MO. FINALLY...UPR PATTERN
FEATURED FAST ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE OH VLY WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS NWRN
MEXICO.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE TO POOL AHEAD OF
THE CD FNT TNGT AS IT STALLS ACRS THE SRN GT LKS. WL DISCOUNT THE
GFS AS IT ALREADY HAD 95% RH AT 925 MB THIS AFTERNOON ACRS THE LOWER
GT LKS AND OH VLY AND YET THERE WAS NOT EVEN A PUFF OF CU. SO FAVOR
THE CANADIAN MODEL REGARDING LOW LVL MOISTURE PATTERN THAT WOULD
ONLY BRING SCT AT BEST CU ACRS THE FA TNGT. THUS...WENT WITH THE
COOLER GFS MOS TNGT. ALTHOUGH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
TNGT...SW WINDS SHOULD STILL STAY 5 KTS OR MORE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
FOG FM FORMING. TOMORROW...MODELS AGREE ON 15-16 DEGREES AT 850 MB
WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE
SIMILAR GFS AND NAM MOS AS THEY HAVE DONE TODAY WITH AGAIN NEAR FULL
SS EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKING LIKE MON NGT AND TUES ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE LWR GT LKS ON TUES
ALONG WITH A WEAK CD FNT. WENT WITH TIMING OF THE 00Z EURO AS IT HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTANT AND IS FAVORED BY HPC. ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FCST WL BE TO INTRODUCE A SLGT CHANCE OF RW`S SERN ZONES MON NGT.
KEPT SMALL CHC POPS IN ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN MIDWEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER CD FNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
THUS...INTRODUCED CHC POPS THEN COINCIDING WITH QPF FM BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MK
AVIATION...RYAN
000
FXUS63 KIWX 072022
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
A BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER AFTERNOON UNDERWAY BENEATH FULL SUNSHINE
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST YET A
TOTAL LACK OF CLOUD COVER AS THIN NEAR SFC MOIST LAYER INSUFFICIENT
IN THE FACE OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. MIXING TO NEAR H92 HAS
TOPPED OUT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE CWA INTO
THE LOW 70S SOUTHWEST...WITH BREEZY SW WINDS AROUND RIDGING OVER
THE SE CONUS CONTINUING WAA INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND APPROACHING BOUNDARY STALLS...EXPECTING
TEMPS TO FALL TO XOVER TEMPS WHICH ARE JUST BELOW 50 ACROSS THE
CWA. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW H92 ALONG THE
STALING BNDRY ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...THOUGH THIS IS
LESS CERTAIN ALONG NORTHERN COUNTIES GIVEN PROGGED POSITION
MOISTURE ALONG DIFFUSE BNDRY FOCUSED THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
ON SUNDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THE
CWA QUICKLY RETURNS TO SW FLOW ONCE AGAIN PUSHING THE BNDRY BACK NORTH
ALONG WITH ASSOC LLEVEL MOISTURE. BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THIS IS
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF CLOUDS OR IF MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO OVERDO
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AS THEY DID FOR TODAY. FEELING IS THAT WHILE SOME
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IT WONT BE ENOUGH TO DAMPEN DIURNAL WARMUP
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILL FOLLOW NAM12 WHICH HAD BETTER HANDLE ON
TODAYS TEMP PROFILES. AS SUCH... ITS PROGS FOR H92 TEMPS ARE QUITE
SIMILAR FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO A SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN TODAYS INSOLATION AND RESULTANT MIXING
ARE COMPLETELY IDEAL...TOMORROW MAY DO WELL TO APPROACH THE SAME
READINGS RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS MUCH LIKE TODAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN INTENSE JET FROM
SIBERIA EAST INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. ANOTHER...WEAKER
JET IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND HELPING TO PUSH A DISTURBANCE INTO WESTERN NOAM TODAY/TONIGHT
THAT WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONG UPSTREAM JET WILL HELP DISLODGE THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW AND
PUSH IT TOWARDS THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH A NEW LOW HEIGHT CENTER
SETTING UP OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY THE OVERALL SPLIT NATURE OF THE FLOW. THIS TROUGH WILL
ALSO BE SLOWER MOVING THAN THE EARLY WEAK DISTURBANCE...BUT STILL
MOBILE AND WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY...AND
DIVERGES QUICKLY AFTER THIS POINT WITH THE 12Z GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE
IN PUSHING THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING EASTWARD WITH THE ECMWF
SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND THE GGEM SLOWER STILL. FOR THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF/GGEM TIMING GIVEN THE
GFS/S PROPENSITY TO EJECT THESE FEATURES TOO QUICKLY...WHICH IS
CONFIRMED SOMEWHAT BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN IT/S CONTROL MEMBER.
PERIOD STARTS WITH MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AS THE H25 FLOW BEGINS TO BACK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH AND EAST FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND IT/S ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS MAY LIMIT
DAYTIME HEATING A LITTLE...BUT WITH T92 JUST BELOW 15C WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. STILL DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GIVEN A VERY
MEAGER MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PREVENTING ANY GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THE CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP...BUT WITH A FROPA LIKELY TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN THE MIDDLE 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY
UNDER DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN ON
MONDAY...BUT T92 BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DOESN/T FALL MUCH BELOW 5C...SO
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S LOOKS GOOD...VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
A GREAT STRETCH OF WEATHER APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A POTENT SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS IN THE CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT UPSTREAM FROM STRENGTHENING TROUGHING ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN US COAST. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN...PARTICULARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH SOMEWHAT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS WE MOVE WEST OF THE H5/H2 RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 50S THURSDAY/FRIDAY
UNDER MODEST WARM ADVECTION IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S WEDNESDAY
MORNING...GRADUALLY INCREASING TO THE LOWER 40S BY FRIDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE WARMING AIRMASS ALOFT...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LLEVEL
MOISTURE.
BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD THE TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EAST AS FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
FOLLOWING THE SLOWER ECMWF/GGEM TIMING STILL SUGGESTS THAT WE CAN
SQUEAK OUT SATURDAY WITHOUT ANY RAINFALL. WILL HOLD THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER PRECIP EVENT IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE SATURDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME. WILL KEEP TEMPS
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO...BUT NO HIGHER GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN JUST HOW FAR EAST THE WESTERN TROUGH MAKES IT BY THIS POINT IN
THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WITH GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES ABSENT OF CLOUDS DUE TO VERY DRY COLUMN ABOVE
SHALLOW LLEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GENERATION OF FOG DURING MORNING HOURS
CURRENTLY PROGGED MVFR BUT POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR VIS TO
DROP TO IFR. VIS RESTRICTIONS LIFT WITH ADDITION OF SUNSHINE
SUNDAY MORNING RETURNING TERMINALS TO VFR CONDS AND LIGHTER SE
WINDS 5-10KTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...LUD
000
FXUS63 KIND 071843
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
143 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FCST WL BE CLOUD COVER TNGT...TEMPS TNGT AND
TOMORROW AND TIMING/CVRG OF RW`S EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A NRN
STREAM S/W AND ASSOCIATED WEAK CD FNT.
VSBL SATELLITE PIX REVEALED FULL SS ACRS THE OH VLY AND LWR GT LKS
WHICH ALONG WITH GUSTY SW LOW LVL FLOW HAS ALLOWED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACRS CNTRL INDIANA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC ANLYS REVEALED HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE NC
COAST AND A CD FNT FM SERN WI TO NRN MO. FINALLY...UPR PATTERN
FEATURED FAST ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE OH VLY WITH AN UPR LOW ACRS NWRN
MEXICO.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE TO POOL AHEAD OF
THE CD FNT TNGT AS IT STALLS ACRS THE SRN GT LKS. WL DISCOUNT THE
GFS AS IT ALREADY HAD 95% RH AT 925 MB THIS AFTERNOON ACRS THE LOWER
GT LKS AND OH VLY AND YET THERE WAS NOT EVEN A PUFF OF CU. SO FAVOR
THE CANADIAN MODEL REGARDING LOW LVL MOISTURE PATTERN THAT WOULD
ONLY BRING SCT AT BEST CU ACRS THE FA TNGT. THUS...WENT WITH THE
COOLER GFS MOS TNGT. ALTHOUGH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME
TNGT...SW WINDS SHOULD STILL STAY 5 KTS OR MORE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
FOG FM FORMING. TOMORROW...MODELS AGREE ON 15-16 DEGREES AT 850 MB
WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THE
SIMILAR GFS AND NAM MOS AS THEY HAVE DONE TODAY WITH AGAIN NEAR FULL
SS EXPECTED.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKING LIKE MON NGT AND TUES ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROF THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE LWR GT LKS ON TUES
ALONG WITH A WEAK CD FNT. WENT WITH TIMING OF THE 00Z EURO AS IT HAS
BEEN THE MOST CONSISTANT AND IS FAVORED BY HPC. ONLY CHANGE IN THE
FCST WL BE TO INTRODUCE A SLGT CHANCE OF RW`S SERN ZONES MON NGT.
KEPT SMALL CHC POPS IN ON TUESDAY. THEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN MIDWEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER CD FNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
THUS...INTRODUCED CHC POPS THEN COINCIDING WITH QPF FM BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 07/18Z TAFS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25KT WITH
FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE NEAR 23Z. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS
TO POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG/CIGS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...AND WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR
FOG MOST SITES AFT 09Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW STRATUS
DECK...BUT MODELS ALSO HAD HIGH HUMIDITIES ACROSS AREA ATTM...AND
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THUS DO NOT TRUST MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...AREA
OF STRATUS TRIED TO WORK N FM TX INTO AR THIS MORNING...AND SOME OF
THIS MAY GET INTO THE AREA SUN MORNING. THUS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP PREV FORECAST OF JUST SCT012...BUT LATER FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO REEVALUATE POSSIBLE STRATUS DECK.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO NEAR 10KT AND THIS MIXING
WILL DISSIPATE FOG AND ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MK
AVIATION...CS
000
FXUS63 KIWX 071732
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1232 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WITH GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES ABSENT OF CLOUDS DUE TO VERY DRY COLUMN ABOVE
SHALLOW LLEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GENERATION OF FOG DURING MORNING HOURS
CURRENTLY PROGGED MVFR BUT POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR VIS TO
DROP TO IFR. VIS RESTRICTIONS LIFT WITH ADDITION OF SUNSHINE
SUNDAY MORNING RETURNING TERMINALS TO VFR CONDS AND LIGHTER SE
WINDS 5-10KTS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT TERM. RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS 1000-850MB THERMAL AXIS FM CNTL PLAINS INTO
WI TO LAY ACROSS FA LTR TODAY AS FRONTALYTIC ZONE ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY
BIFURCATING SFC HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OFF NRN ROCKIES PLATEAU AND
INTO SWRN GRTLKS BY THIS EVENING. SFC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
ESPECIALLY LATE AM/ERLY AFTN AT HEIGHT OF MIXING DEPTH AND PRIOR
TO BULK OF LLVL JET AXIS SLIDING EWD. RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALSO
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE AIRMASS EXCHANGE. SPLIT MAV/MET DIFFERENCE
AT KBEH WHERE DTC/LAND BREEZE MAY SET-UP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE TOWARD SHORELINE/METAR SITE. SRLY
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF SERN CO LOW EJECTING INTO PLAINS
WITH BAJA SYSTEM AT LEAST PROVIDING A LITTLE BUCKLE IN UPSTREAM
FLOW...DEVOID IN DY1 SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WHEN THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE AMONG GFS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...SELECTED A GENERAL NCEP
MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD WAS TOO LOW TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES. THE GFS ANALOGS WERE STILL SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL THAT INCLUDES A BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE
MAIN TROF WOULD HAVE LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM. THE
OVERALL MILD PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
BRIEFLY COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THE ONGOING TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY STILL APPEARS ON TRACK.
KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS.
LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LUD
000
FXUS63 KIND 071625
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1125 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 07/18Z TAFS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25KT WITH
FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE NEAR 23Z. CONCERN THEN SHIFTS
TO POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG/CIGS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE...AND WITH DECREASING WINDS THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR
FOG MOST SITES AFT 09Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW STRATUS
DECK...BUT MODELS ALSO HAD HIGH HUMIDITIES ACROSS AREA ATTM...AND
SKIES ARE CLEAR. THUS DO NOT TRUST MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...AREA
OF STRATUS TRIED TO WORK N FM TX INTO AR THIS MORNING...AND SOME OF
THIS MAY GET INTO THE AREA SUN MORNING. THUS WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP PREV FORECAST OF JUST SCT012...BUT LATER FORECASTS WILL
HAVE TO REEVALUATE POSSIBLE STRATUS DECK.
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP SUN MORNING TO NEAR 10KT AND THIS MIXING
WILL DISSIPATE FOG AND ANY STRATUS THAT DOES FORM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS AND RAIN
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IR SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES AND A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.
SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM INDIANA AND WESTWARD.
WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MAV/MET BLEND. HIGHS YESTERDAY
WERE IN THE LOWER 70S OR WARMER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER YESTERDAY. NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO 70 OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION. WIND PROFFERS
SHOW WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 500 METERS. MODELS GRADUALLY DECREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER TODAY...BUT WITH SOME MIXING WE SHOULD SEE
GUSTS AT LEAST TO 25 MPH.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT THEN
STALLS AND MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT INDICATING POSSIBLE STRATUS OR FOG. MODELS MAY
BE OVERDOING THIS A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM AND
ONLY FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF. WILL
MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH.
FRONT MOVES BACK TO NORTH SUNDAY AND WEATHER WILL BECOME SUNNY AND
MILD. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 17 DEGREES AND WILL
GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURES. LITTLE CHANGE ON MONDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
MODELS BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY AND
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. WILL MENTION
CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER AND A LITTLE COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEAR
THE END OF DAY 7...WHILE THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...CS
000
FXUS63 KIWX 071441
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
941 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO BUMP HIGHS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY AS FULL
SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN MIXING TO H92-H90 AND ALLOW CWA TO
REALIZE LOW LVL WARM AIR MASS AS H92 TEMPS PUSH INTO THE LOWER
TEENS. GIVEN CLOUD FREE VIS SAT IMAGE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER TO
ZERO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO EKE OUT A FEW CU DURING PEAK HEATING AHEAD
OF WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA. UPDATED
GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT TERM. RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS 1000-850MB THERMAL AXIS FM CNTL PLAINS INTO
WI TO LAY ACROSS FA LTR TODAY AS FRONTALYTIC ZONE ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY
BIFURCATING SFC HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OFF NRN ROCKIES PLATEAU AND
INTO SWRN GRTLKS BY THIS EVENING. SFC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
ESPECIALLY LATE AM/ERLY AFTN AT HEIGHT OF MIXING DEPTH AND PRIOR
TO BULK OF LLVL JET AXIS SLIDING EWD. RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALSO
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE AIRMASS EXCHANGE. SPLIT MAV/MET DIFFERENCE
AT KBEH WHERE DTC/LAND BREEZE MAY SET-UP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE TOWARD SHORELINE/METAR SITE. SRLY
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF SERN CO LOW EJECTING INTO PLAINS
WITH BAJA SYSTEM AT LEAST PROVIDING A LITTLE BUCKLE IN UPSTREAM
FLOW...DEVOID IN DY1 SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WHEN THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE AMONG GFS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...SELECTED A GENERAL NCEP
MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD WAS TOO LOW TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES. THE GFS ANALOGS WERE STILL SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL THAT INCLUDES A BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE
MAIN TROF WOULD HAVE LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM. THE
OVERALL MILD PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
BRIEFLY COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THE ONGOING TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY STILL APPEARS ON TRACK.
KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS.
LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
UPDATE...SIMPSON
000
FXUS63 KIWX 071207
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
700 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
AVIATION...
CONTD FOCUS ON WIND SHEAR INTO ERLY AM HOURS WITH PRIMARY FOCUS NOW
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD TO A KIND-KDAY AXIS ATTM PER VWP/PROFILER
DATA...ALONG WITH WLCI3 PROFILER DATA...SUGGESTING TOP OF SFC BASED
INVERSION LYR SWRLY FLOW TO 45-50 KFTS ERLY IN TAF PD. INCREASED
MIXING DEPTH AS SFC COLD FRONT...CRNTLY FM WRN LK SUP-NRN PLAINS...
APPROACHES. LITTLE MORE THAN SCT FAIR WX CU ANTICIPATED WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOME CONTD CONCERNS OF BR POTNL SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIR
LLVL THETA-E/SFC DPS POOLED ACRS NRN IN AND SFC TEMPS FALLING TO
JUST BLO PROJECTED XOVER TEMPS IN DECOUPLED BL. FOR NOW HAVE
INTRODUCED TEMPO MVFR CONDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUN AND ALLOW LATER
ISSUANCES TO FINE TUNE/PSBLY LWR TO IFR CONDS SHOULD CONDS CONT TO
APPEAR FAVORABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT TERM. RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS 1000-850MB THERMAL AXIS FM CNTL PLAINS INTO
WI TO LAY ACROSS FA LTR TODAY AS FRONTALYTIC ZONE ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY
BIFURCATING SFC HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OFF NRN ROCKIES PLATEAU AND
INTO SWRN GRTLKS BY THIS EVENING. SFC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
ESPECIALLY LATE AM/ERLY AFTN AT HEIGHT OF MIXING DEPTH AND PRIOR
TO BULK OF LLVL JET AXIS SLIDING EWD. RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALSO
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE AIRMASS EXCHANGE. SPLIT MAV/MET DIFFERENCE
AT KBEH WHERE DTC/LAND BREEZE MAY SET-UP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE TOWARD SHORELINE/METAR SITE. SRLY
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF SERN CO LOW EJECTING INTO PLAINS
WITH BAJA SYSTEM AT LEAST PROVIDING A LITTLE BUCKLE IN UPSTREAM
FLOW...DEVOID IN DY1 SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WHEN THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE AMONG GFS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...SELECTED A GENERAL NCEP
MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD WAS TOO LOW TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES. THE GFS ANALOGS WERE STILL SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL THAT INCLUDES A BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE
MAIN TROF WOULD HAVE LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM. THE
OVERALL MILD PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
BRIEFLY COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THE ONGOING TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY STILL APPEARS ON TRACK.
KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS.
LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
000
FXUS63 KIND 071120
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
620 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 071200Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VWP AND WIND PROFILERS INDICATING 500 METER WINDS ARE
22045KT...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT A BORDERLINE LLWS SITUATION. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AIR MASS WILL MIX OUT BY 15-16Z TO END LLWS.
HOWEVER WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. MODELS GRADUALLY EASE UP
ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES TO EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA
LATE TONIGHT.
VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. MODELS INDICATE
POSSIBLE STRATUS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL INDIANA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVERTS INTO AREA JUST SOUTH OF COLD FRONT. I
BELIEVE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THIS...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SCT012 WITH
5SM BR MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS AND RAIN
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IR SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES AND A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.
SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM INDIANA AND WESTWARD.
WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MAV/MET BLEND. HIGHS YESTERDAY
WERE IN THE LOWER 70S OR WARMER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER YESTERDAY. NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO 70 OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION. WIND PROFFERS
SHOW WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 500 METERS. MODELS GRADUALLY DECREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER TODAY...BUT WITH SOME MIXING WE SHOULD SEE
GUSTS AT LEAST TO 25 MPH.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT THEN
STALLS AND MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT INDICATING POSSIBLE STRATUS OR FOG. MODELS MAY
BE OVERDOING THIS A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM AND
ONLY FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF. WILL
MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH.
FRONT MOVES BACK TO NORTH SUNDAY AND WEATHER WILL BECOME SUNNY AND
MILD. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 17 DEGREES AND WILL
GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURES. LITTLE CHANGE ON MONDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
MODELS BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY AND
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. WILL MENTION
CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER AND A LITTLE COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEAR
THE END OF DAY 7...WHILE THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...JH
000
FXUS63 KIWX 071015
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
515 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IN SHORT TERM. RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AS 1000-850MB THERMAL AXIS FM CNTL PLAINS INTO
WI TO LAY ACROSS FA LTR TODAY AS FRONTALYTIC ZONE ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY
BIFURCATING SFC HIGH MOVES QUICKLY OFF NRN ROCKIES PLATEAU AND
INTO SWRN GRTLKS BY THIS EVENING. SFC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
ESPECIALLY LATE AM/ERLY AFTN AT HEIGHT OF MIXING DEPTH AND PRIOR
TO BULK OF LLVL JET AXIS SLIDING EWD. RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALSO
OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE AIRMASS EXCHANGE. SPLIT MAV/MET DIFFERENCE
AT KBEH WHERE DTC/LAND BREEZE MAY SET-UP BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE TOWARD SHORELINE/METAR SITE. SRLY
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF SERN CO LOW EJECTING INTO PLAINS
WITH BAJA SYSTEM AT LEAST PROVIDING A LITTLE BUCKLE IN UPSTREAM
FLOW...DEVOID IN DY1 SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
WHEN THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE AMONG GFS...ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...SELECTED A GENERAL NCEP
MODEL BLEND...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD WAS TOO LOW TO
MAKE ANY CHANGES. THE GFS ANALOGS WERE STILL SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNAL THAT INCLUDES A BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM. THIS WOULD IMPLY SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE
MAIN TROF WOULD HAVE LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM. THE
OVERALL MILD PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR
BRIEFLY COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. THE ONGOING TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY STILL APPEARS ON TRACK.
KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS.
LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONTD FOCUS ON WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO ERLY SAT AM PER STRONG
925MB WSR-88D VWP AT KIWX AND KORD...ALONG WITH WLCI3 PROFILER
DATA...SUGGESTING TOP OF SFC BASED INVERSION LYR SWRLY FLOW TO 50
KFTS ERLY IN TAF PD. INCREASED MIXING DEPTH AS SFC COLD
FRONT...CRNTLY OVER NRN PLAINS...APPROACHES. LITTLE MORE THAN SCT
FAIR WX CU ANTICIPATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME ERLY CONCERNS OF
BR POTNL SUNDAY MORNING/BEYOND CURRENT FOCUS OF 06 UTC TAFS/ AS SFC
TEMPS FALL JUST BLO XOVER TEMPS AND BL WINDS DECOUPLE. SUBSEQUENT
ISSUANCES MAY SEE FOCUS SHIFT TO THIS ISSUE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY
000
FXUS63 KIND 070853
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS AND RAIN
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IR SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES AND A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.
SATELLITE SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FROM INDIANA AND WESTWARD.
WILL GO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE MAV/MET BLEND. HIGHS YESTERDAY
WERE IN THE LOWER 70S OR WARMER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER YESTERDAY. NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO 70 OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION. WIND PROFFERS
SHOW WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 500 METERS. MODELS GRADUALLY DECREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER TODAY...BUT WITH SOME MIXING WE SHOULD SEE
GUSTS AT LEAST TO 25 MPH.
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT THEN
STALLS AND MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
LIGHT LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONT INDICATING POSSIBLE STRATUS OR FOG. MODELS MAY
BE OVERDOING THIS A LITTLE BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM AND
ONLY FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF. WILL
MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SOUTH.
FRONT MOVES BACK TO NORTH SUNDAY AND WEATHER WILL BECOME SUNNY AND
MILD. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 17 DEGREES AND WILL
GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURES. LITTLE CHANGE ON MONDAY
ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
MODELS BRING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY AND
HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. WILL MENTION
CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER AND A LITTLE COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEAR
THE END OF DAY 7...WHILE THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 070600Z TAF ISSUANCE. SOME CONCERN FOR
LLWS ACRS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS A 40-45KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA
BTWN 070600Z-071200Z. MODEL WND FIELDS...ALONG WITH PROFILER AND
070000Z UA...SUGGEST WNDS WITHIN THE LLJ WON/T BE STG ENOUGH FOR
LLWS MEETING TAF CRITERIA...BUT IT MAY CLOSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
IF WNDS CAN DECOUPLE MORE THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. WL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON WND TRENDS OVERNIGHT...BOTH AT THE SFC AND WITHIN
THE LLJ.
MODEL WND FIELD SUGGEST SFC WND GUSTS TO ARND 25 KTS FM 210-230
HEADINGS PROBABLE AFT ABOUT 071600Z. OTRW...NO SIG CLD COVER BLW 050
AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS XPCTD THRU 071800Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JH
AVIATION...JAS
000
FXUS63 KIWX 070605
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
117 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
CONTD FOCUS ON WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO ERLY SAT AM PER STRONG
925MB WSR-88D VWP AT KIWX AND KORD...ALONG WITH WLCI3 PROFILER
DATA...SUGGESTING TOP OF SFC BASED INVERSION LYR SWRLY FLOW TO 50
KFTS ERLY IN TAF PD. INCREASED MIXING DEPTH AS SFC COLD
FRONT...CRNTLY OVER NRN PLAINS...APPROAHCES. LITTLE MORE THAN SCT
FAIR WX CU ANTICIPATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME ERLY CONCERNS OF
BR POTNL SUNDAY MORNING/BEYOND CURRENT FOCUS OF 06 UTC TAFS/ AS SFC
TEMPS FALL JUST BLO XOVER TEMPS AND BL WINDS DECOUPLE. SUBSEQUENT
ISSUANCES MAY SEE FOCUS SHIFT TO THIS ISSUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
WAA CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF WARM FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND AMPLE SUNSHINE AND QUICK
WARMING INTO THE MID 50S. AFTER SUNSET STRONG LLEVEL JET DEVELOPS
WITH H92 WINDS TO 50KT OVERSPREADING THE AREA. SUFFICIENT SFC
GRADIENT TO FORCE SW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS BELOW INVERSION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HELPING TO MODERATE MORNING LOWS IN MID 40S WEST/LOW 40S
EAST. ON SATURDAY...WEAK TAIL END OF MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH BRINGING AN EXPECTED IN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATES LOW CLOUD DECK POSSIBLE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HELPING MODERATE WARMING POTENTIAL SO HAVE
REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH WARM UP KEEPING MOST LOCALES IN LOW TO
MID 60S. BNDRY SLOWS/STALLS TO OUR SOUTH WITH NAM12 PAINTING THE
CLOUDIEST PICTURE RELATIVE TO THE MORE DRIER 12Z GFS/9Z SREF. HWVR
TIME HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MODEL SUITE SHOW CONSIDERABLE NEAR SFC
MOISTURE NEAR THE BNDRY AND HAVE RETAINED CLOUDINESS ESP IN SOUTH
HALF WITH MILD LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER EASTERN SIBERIA WITH A STRONG POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY TO IT/S SOUTH OVER THE FAR WESTERN PACIFIC WILL
SUPPORT A POTENT NORTHERN PACIFIC JET THAT WILL MOVE EAST WITH
TIME...DISLODGING THE LOW HEIGHT ANOMALY CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND SENDING IT SOUTH AND EAST. THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DETERMINE OUR
LATE WEEK WEATHER...WHILE A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THIS
ENERGY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN OUR VICINITY ON SUNDAY WITH THE
SETUP STILL SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT BIT OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE H85 MOISTURE PLUME IS PRETTY PALTRY WITH
LITTLE CONNECTION TO THE GULF...THERE IS A BETTER CONNECTION BELOW
THIS LEVEL WITH BUFKIT AND RH PROGS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL
SUGGESTING A STRATUS LAYER TRAPPED BELOW AN H8 INVERSION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE SKY COVER...BUT HOLD JUST SHORT OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH OF THE
MOIST LAYER AND WHETHER IT WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A CLOUD
DECK. WILL KEPT TEMPS IN THE 60-65F RANGE...KEEPING TEMPS LOWER
THAN WHAT WE WOULD SEE GIVEN FULL SUN/MIXING...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING PULLS EAST AND ALLOWS FOR A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY NORTH. HIGHS
60-65 STILL LOOK VERY REASONABLE GIVEN T92 NEAR 11C AND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY WITH A FAST
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. AGAIN...WITH LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE
CONNECTION TO THE GULF...AND A FAST SYSTEM MOVEMENT...DON/T EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL TOTALS NOT
LIKELY EXCEEDING ONE TO TWO TENTHS. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHC POPS FOR
THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY CHANGE THIS SHIFT BEING TO SPEED POPS UP BY
ABOUT 6 HOURS. PRECIP/FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PUT A DAMPER ON TEMPS
WITH T92 DROPPING TO AROUND 5C BY LATE TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S ACCORDINGLY.
IMPRESSIVE 1035 HPA HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO LOOK REASONABLE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE WITH GUIDANCE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY
WILL BREAK FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE IT/S NORTHERN STREAM PARENT
CONTINUES EAST IN A NEARLY ZONAL MOTION. THIS WOULD KEEP ANY
SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEEK/S END. WILL KEEP TEMPS JUST A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO AS
THE WESTERN TROUGHING STILL LOOKS PRETTY WEAK/PROGRESSIVE WITH
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. STILL...NO SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER TEMPS ARE IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE BASED ON TODAY/S 12Z
GUIDANCE AND LATEST TRENDS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LUD
LONG TERM...ARNOTT
AVIATION...MURPHY
000
FXUS63 KIND 070445
AFDIND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1145 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 070600Z TAF ISSUANCE. SOME CONCERN FOR
LLWS ACRS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS A 40-45KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA
BTWN 070600Z-071200Z. MODEL WND FIELDS...ALONG WITH PROFILER AND
070000Z UA...SUGGEST WNDS WITHIN THE LLJ WON/T BE STG ENOUGH FOR
LLWS MEETING TAF CRITERIA...BUT IT MAY CLOSE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
IF WNDS CAN DECOUPLE MORE THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED. WL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON WND TRENDS OVERNIGHT...BOTH AT THE SFC AND WITHIN
THE LLJ.
MODEL WND FIELD SUGGEST SFC WND GUSTS TO ARND 25 KTS FM 210-230
HEADINGS PROBABLE AFT ABOUT 071600Z. OTRW...NO SIG CLD COVER BLW 050
AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS XPCTD THRU 071800Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM WL REMAIN TEMPERATURES AND DOWN THE
ROAD WL BE TIMING AND CVRG OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. VSBL SATELLITE
PICS AND SFC OBS WERE SHOWING A THICK EWD MOVING AC DECK ACRS THE
ERN HALF OF THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN WAA REGEME. SFC ANLYS HAD
A RIDGE EXTENDING FM THE ERN GT LKS S ACRS THE APLCHNS WITH A WARM
FNT ACRS THE PLAINS. FINALLY...UPR PATTERN FEATURED A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE JUST W OF THE FA WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE OH VLY. ALSO OF
NOTE WAS AN UPR LOW OFFSHORE JUST W OF BAJA CA.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SW LOW LVL
FLOW...WAA RESULTING IN MILD TEMPERATURES. MODELS ALSO AGREE ON
BRINGING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE ACRS THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUN MRNG IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FNT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER NON-THE-LESS. THIS WL ACT TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON PER SIMILAR MOS AND UP SATURDAY NGT PER THE
NAM MOS...BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE SUNDAY TO ALLOW
850 MB TEMPS 14 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS TO MIX DOWN AND RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 SW WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH
GFS AND NAM MOS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL TIME SECS AND SATELLITE TRENDS FAVORING
INCREASING CI TNGT AHEAD OF THE CD FNT. THAT AND SFC WINDS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SSW NEAR 10 KTS TNGT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING MUCH.
FAVOR THE WARMER GFS AS A RESULT.
THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN IS A BIT DICEY AS MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING
AND QPF FIELDS. SO...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO LACK OF MODEL
CONSENSUS...WL LEAVE SMALL CHC POPS IN MON NGT AND TUES. GFS WANTS
TO BRING SOME RW`S IN LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A CD FNT...BUT EURO
CONTS TO BE DRY. DUE TO CONSISTANCY...WL LEAVE REST OF THE FCST DRY
FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MK
AVIATION...JAS
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