[top]
000
FXUS63 KGLD 082153
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
253 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
240 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
THE FIRST FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN IN
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA MONDAY. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AT
19Z LIES FROM THE OMAHA AREA SOUTHWEST TO AROUND DODGE CITY AND
DOWN TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S HAVE PUSHED INTO SC KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE
900-800 MB LAYER WILL LIE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL ADVECT SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE BACK OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. 300K ISENTROPIC CHARTS SHOW
WARM ADVECTION AND HIGH RH VALUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRINGE OF THE
CWA TOMORROW...SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THAT
AREA.
ON TUESDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER MN/WI WILL RIDGE DOWN
INTO WESTERN KANSAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE IN THE
50S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER
IS SEEN FOR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT FORECAST CONSIDERATION INVOLVES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
TO ADVECT NORTH INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. ALL MODELS STRENGTHEN BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BRING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PATCHY DRIZZLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER WARMUP DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT ON ANY ONE
GIVEN SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE IN THE PAST
FEW RUNS AND THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER AND DEEPER. TODAYS GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS IN THE OVERALL PICTURE
BY SENDING A MESSAGE THAT THE FIRST PART OF THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A
FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THIS AREA ON THE MILDER
AND DRIER SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EUROPEAN BRING IN A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH MON NIGHT-TUESDAY BUT BOTH MODELS KEEP THIS TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE CURRENT LOW POPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND HAVE THINGS COVERED FOR NOW AND HAVENT MADE ANY
BIG CHANGES IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
DLF
&&
.AVIATION...
241 PM MDT SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET
AT BOTH KGLD/KMCK AND STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POINT
SOUNDINGS FOR THE SITES INDICATE BROKEN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS63 KDDC 082138
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SURPRISES IN THE FORECAST EXPECTATIONS IN THE
LAST FEW MODES RUNS AND WHAT THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING.
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING TROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS IN THE STRONGEST PVA/OMEGA ZONE. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ALLOWING A DEFORMATION AXIS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IN THE MEANTIME, A SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND SOUTHWARD BY LATE THIS EVENING, PROVIDING NORTHERLY LIGHT WINDS
EVERYWHERE BY LATE THIS EVENING.
A JET OF HIGHER THETA-E WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT, AND INCREASE
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODEL
OUTPUT CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE ENERGY CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THIS AREA
INDICATE UPWARDS OF 500 J/KG OF CAPE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST LIFT LAYER
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ISENTROPIC
LIFT/CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG AND ALOFT OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
IN GENERAL WE HAVE MAINTAINED SIMILAR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, AND NOT SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED THEM. THE
GENERALLY LOW QPF OF THE MODELS DOESN`T SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN BUT LOOKS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS DEFORMATION AXIS INTO
MONDAY, AS THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD
PULL IN SOME LOWER THETA-E AIR FROM THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS REGION
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER, LIKELY BY AROUND 20 DEGREES. THE REBOUND BY
TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT, WITH PERHAPS LOW 60S FOR HIGHS AND
INCREASED SUN AS WINDS BEGINNING TO BACK SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN.
RUSSELL
DAYS 3-7...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD ARE THE TIMING
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND IF ANY RAINFALL. THE NEW
ECMWF NOW IS IN LINE WITH THIS MORNINGS GFS ON THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT AROUND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF OUR FA. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITH MILD AIRMASS
INTO FRIDAY WITH WARMING OVERNIGHT LOWS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB AND SOUTH
WINDS KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED.
FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK FOR CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAYBE SOME
SPITS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FOG EARLY WITH LOWS AROUND 40. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THEN CLIMB TO AROUND 50 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. HIGH
TEMPS WARM FROM AROUND 60 ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH. TEMPS MAY BE WARMER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSOLATION AND
IF ANY THICK CIRRUS OR OTHER CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER THE
FROPA SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING LOWS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH NEAR DODGE CITY THIS EARLY
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT CLOUDS SHOULD
THICKEN AND LOWER BUT EXPECTED TO BE MVFR TO VFR CIGS.
06
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 50 53 36 56 / 30 30 20 10
GCK 45 54 35 61 / 10 20 10 10
EHA 42 53 37 62 / 10 20 10 10
LBL 49 54 38 62 / 20 30 20 10
HYS 48 54 35 57 / 10 30 20 10
P28 54 59 44 59 / 30 60 30 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN33/06
[top]
000
FXUS63 KICT 082120
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT MOISTURE HAS
REALLY INCREASED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER
50 DEWPOINTS FOUND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS.
TONIGHT-TUE:
THERE ARE SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP OVER SE KS/EASTERN OK WHICH
IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE
THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN PRECIP DEVELOPING...STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THE
MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
THEREFORE WILL LINGER PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS THROUGH
MON NIGHT. WHILE HIGHS ON MON WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT
THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AS THEY HOVER IN THE LOWER 60S.
EXTENDED: WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL BE BUILDING IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIG IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MAY EFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. COULD SEE THE LAST OF THE WARMTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
COLORADO WILL ENHANCE SOUTHERLY WINDS...BRINGING IN WARM AIR AND
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH THE
GFS DEEPENING THE SYSTEM MORE AS IT COMES THROUGH. DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON POPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
LAWSON/DUNTEN
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN NE INTO NWRN KS THIS PM...WILL SLIDE
SEWD TO S-CNTRL KS BY 12Z WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL FOR
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF SHOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AM ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS S-CNTRL KS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA (HUT AND ICT SITES). SHORTWAVE OVER W-CNTRL TX WILL EJECT
NEWD ACROSS SERN KS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AM. MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES/LIFT MAY SUPPORT SCT -SHRA/TS ALONG/E OF THE KS TURNPIKE
WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A
FEW -SHRA ALONG/BEHIND FRONT MONDAY.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 55 63 46 60 / 30 50 40 10
HUTCHINSON 53 60 45 60 / 30 50 30 0
NEWTON 54 62 45 59 / 30 50 40 10
ELDORADO 55 63 46 60 / 30 50 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 65 48 61 / 30 50 40 20
RUSSELL 45 57 37 60 / 20 40 20 0
GREAT BEND 47 57 41 60 / 20 50 30 0
SALINA 51 59 44 60 / 20 50 30 0
MCPHERSON 52 59 44 59 / 30 50 30 0
COFFEYVILLE 56 68 49 62 / 20 50 40 30
CHANUTE 56 68 48 61 / 20 50 40 20
IOLA 56 68 48 60 / 20 50 40 20
PARSONS-KPPF 56 68 49 62 / 20 50 40 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KTOP 082114
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
314 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON THE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCE OVERNIGHT.
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ALSO LIFTING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH TEXAS. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WAS ANALYZED TO STRETCH FROM NE NEBRASKA TO SW KANSAS. SFC BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO HANG OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. UPSTREAM KICKER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PAC NW LATE TUES.
LL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE BOUNDARY...AND PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PROVIDE
PERIODS OF LIFT BEGINNING AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. X-SECTION ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE 900:800MB LAYER SATURATES
FIRST...AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND OBS DEPICTING STRATUS MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SUPPORT THIS. DRY LL AIR MAY TAKE
A BIT TO OVERCOME...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT RAIN WILL COMMENCE A BIT
SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE
PERSISTS MONDAY MORNING...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WANES BETWEEN
PASSING SHORTWAVES...AND WAA TAKES SOME TIME TO BECOME
RE-ESTABLISHED. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MON DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCE ARRIVES AFTER 18Z WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
PRESENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY NECESSITATES
CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY POST-FROPA WILL BE 10F-15F COOLER THAN OBSERVED
TODAY. DID WARM THESE VALUES SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE
TO ANTICIPATED MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS...AND INSULATING CLOUD COVER
ALTHOUGH A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL.
LUNDE
&&
MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT MAXIMIZING LLVL
FRONTOGENISIS AFTER 00Z ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS ARE ALSO AT THEIR
PEAK AT THIS TIME SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN A NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST LINE ACROSS THE CWA. NOT A LOT OF QPF EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY...HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FAR
SE CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN HOLDING THIS OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS SO ADDED IT IN UNTIL NOON. AFTER THAT DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO
NE/NC KANSAS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PACNW. ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTER FRIDAY WITH THE GFS BREAKING DOWN THE EAST COAST RIDGE FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE PACNW SYSTEM SEEMS TO
BE IN ORDER ESPECIALLY WITH A MORE BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID HAVE KEPT THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
/ROUGHLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S/.
SALLY
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD. NORTHERN
ENERGY AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE KS AFTER 00Z.
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MVFR CIGS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA VIA
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MHK AFTER
08Z...AND TOP/FOE AFTER 11Z. DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS
COLUMN SHOULD TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE...BUT DID INTRODUCE VCSH
AT MHK AFTER 08Z NEARER THE DEEP LIFT. FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL
BETTER TIME PRECIP...AND POTENTIALLY ADD TO TOP/FOE SOONER WITH
PERSISTING WAA THAT MAY SATURATE A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INITIATE
RAINFALL SOONER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
LUNDE
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 081747
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD. NORTHERN
ENERGY AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NE KS AFTER 00Z.
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MVFR CIGS ALREADY EVIDENT ACROSS OKLAHOMA VIA
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MHK AFTER
08Z...AND TOP/FOE AFTER 11Z. DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...AS
COLUMN SHOULD TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE...BUT DID INTRODUCE VCSH
AT MHK AFTER 08Z NEARER THE DEEP LIFT. FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL
BETTER TIME PRECIP...AND POTENTIALLY ADD TO TOP/FOE SOONER WITH
PERSISTING WAA THAT MAY SATURATE A DEEP ENOUGH LAYER TO INITIATE
RAINFALL SOONER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
LUNDE
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
RECENT IMAGERY FROM WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IN
NORTHERN MEXICO. FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS SOUTHERLY
WITH UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS NORTH
ACROSS TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOW VERY
DRY AIR AROUND 850MB...MOVING THIS WAY PER AREA PROFILERS. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE. WITH THE DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. UPSTREAM SURFACE TEMPS FROM SATURDAY SUPPORT MOS NUMBERS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHERN WAVE WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FINALLY EXIT THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIFT ABOVE THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE LACKING GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN A
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY IS
A BIT DEEPER THAN EARLIER PROGS INDICATED...AND WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
THUNDER MENTION MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT AND LIMIT DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES /PERHAPS EVEN LESS/...AND WENT BELOW MOS HERE.
UPPER TROFFING DEVELOPING NEARBY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY RESULTS
FROM A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE...WITH PACIFIC JET SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FORCING DOWNSTREAM CHANGES. THE NAM IS THE
SLOW/WEST OUTLIER WITH THE TROF MOVING OUT ON TUESDAY...AND FAVORED
THE FASTER AND THUS DRIER ECMWF AND GFS GIVEN THEIR HEMISPHERIC
DOMAINS. MAV HIGHS SEEM A BIT WARM THOUGH GIVEN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WERE BUMPED UP WITH AIRMASS A BIT MORE MOIST THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 081739
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN NE INTO NWRN KS THIS PM...WILL SLIDE
SEWD TO S-CNTRL KS BY 12Z WHERE THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL FOR
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM-WRF SHOW SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AM ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS S-CNTRL KS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA (HUT AND ICT SITES). SHORTWAVE OVER W-CNTRL TX WILL EJECT
NEWD ACROSS SERN KS LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AM. MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES/LIFT MAY SUPPORT SCT -SHRA/TS ALONG/E OF THE KS TURNPIKE
WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A
FEW -SHRA ALONG/BEHIND FRONT MONDAY.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
TOUGHER AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS APPEAR ONCE AGAIN TO
BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE BACKED OFF FOR NOW WITH
ONLY SOME 4-5SM BR ANTICIPATED GIVEN FAIRLY DECENT MIXING. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME CUMULUS FINALLY
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF HE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. ANTICIPATED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING
EVENING/NIGHT AT KSLN/KHUT/KICT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
CORRECT WITH VERY MODEST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AT FACE
VALUE 0600 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL WOULD SUGGEST
IFR /LOW IFR CEILINGS/FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KICT/KHUT BY 09/12 UTC.
GIVEN MODEL TRACK RECORDS OVER THE LAST MONTH...WILL KEEP THIS
MVFR FOR NOW. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS
MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL
COOLING. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOW STRATOCUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS
TO BURN OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
PRECLUDE MAXIMUM HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
70S.
STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE AREA A BIT FASTER TONIGHT...SO INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT MAY ALSO BE AIDED
BY MID/UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX...EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS. MAY
SEE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (NOT STRONG/SEVERE) WITH THE
SHOWERS MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND
RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONT.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS SETTLES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS WARMING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FROM MID-LATE WEEK...AS THE MENTIONED MODELS DEVELOP
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONSEQUENTLY...BREEZY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GFS/ECMWF INCREASE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING...PROGRESSING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
BIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF FEATURES...SO DID NOT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.
ADK
FIRE WEATHER...
USING CURING VALUES OF 85-95%...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
WILL BE "HIGH" TO "VERY HIGH" LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...DUE TO STOUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. PASTURES/GRASSLANDS WITH LOWER CURING VALUES WILL
HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS FIRE DANGER. AFTER A FEW QUIET FIRE
WEATHER DAYS MONDAY-TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 74 56 61 43 / 0 20 40 30
HUTCHINSON 74 54 59 40 / 0 20 40 30
NEWTON 74 55 60 42 / 0 20 40 30
ELDORADO 75 56 62 44 / 0 20 40 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 75 56 64 46 / 0 20 40 40
RUSSELL 74 45 57 35 / 0 20 30 10
GREAT BEND 74 47 57 36 / 0 20 40 20
SALINA 74 50 58 39 / 0 20 40 20
MCPHERSON 74 53 59 40 / 0 20 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 75 56 68 47 / 0 10 30 40
CHANUTE 75 56 66 46 / 0 10 30 40
IOLA 75 56 66 46 / 0 10 40 40
PARSONS-KPPF 75 56 68 47 / 0 10 30 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 081727
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
244 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS THE SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAXES FOR TODAY AND MONDAY A SECONDARY
PROBLEM. SATELLITE SHOWING FAST WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE
NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. DECENT/MODERATE STRENGTH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO UTAH. AS OF 07Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 3 HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS SHOW FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND HAS MADE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON CURRENT JET THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT MID LEVELS...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT MODELS DID FINE ON
THE INITIAL ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWED THROUGH 06Z THAT
THEY WERE TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE NAM WAS THE WORST OFFENDER AND IS WAY TOO DEEP AND SLOW.
THE RUC WAS DOING VERY WELL FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE HANDLING CURRENT SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE
FRONTS LOCATION. THE LATEST RUC MATCHES THESE TWO WELL THROUGH
18Z. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE THERMAL FIELD...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THE WARMER AIR. THE GFS DID BETTER HERE AND OVERALL WAS THE BETTER
MODEL WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. FURTHER NORTH...THE NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE GFS.
GOING BY WHAT REALITY IS SHOWING...WILL MAINLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
RUC/SREF/ECMWF WITH A LITTLE NAM THROWN IN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INTERESTING/PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AS
FRONT MOVES NORTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 50S AS
WINDS INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 MPH. MODELS KEEP THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION GOING WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SETTING IN EVEN WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SHIFT DOES NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE AREA AND EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE/THICKEN
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS MID/UPPER LIFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT
THIS TIME...PLAN ON GOING TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE
WAS A LITTLE COOL YESTERDAY.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON JET POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MAIN PORTION OF THE JET STILL WELL TO THE NORTH. JET MAX COMING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO STILL WELL TO THE WEST. AIR
MASS IS STILL ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH MID LEVELS. THE WIND SHIFT
COMES IN SOON ENOUGH THAT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHED
EAST. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
STRONGEST...PUSHES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO CLEANS OUT THE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STILL THERE. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT IS LEFT
FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. QPF IS EVEN MORE SCANT THAN YESTERDAY. SO THE
CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE JET IS
DURING THE DAY WITH THE SAME TRENDS FROM THE MODELS AS YESTERDAY.
TO START THE DAY...THE ECMWF IS FLATTER/FURTHER EAST WITH JET COMING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/UKMET/GFS ARE SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST WITH
THE JET/TROUGH. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
NAM/UKMET ABOUT THE SAME. THE GFS COMES INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF BY THE END OF THE DAY.
EVEN GOING BY THE MOST FAVORABLE MODELS...JET LIFT LIFT REMAINS
WEAK AND MOSTLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE. WHEN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH A LITTLE BETTER LIFT BUT
NOT THAT STRONG...THERE IS EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
IS EVEN LESS QPF THAN YESTERDAY. SREF/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE NO QPF WITH
THE NAM HAVING BARELY A HUNDREDTH. THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE. WILL
EITHER LIMIT MEASURABLE TO THE FAR NORTH OR JUST HAVE SPRINKLES.
WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LOT OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...AND
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO COOL AND
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE
THE WINDS INCREASE FIRST WITH THE EASTERN HALF AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
THIRD BEING LIGHT FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT. SO LOWERED MINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE AREA PLENTY
OF SUN...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE IN DAY...AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY RECYCLED COOL AIR. EASTERN AREAS WILL
PROBABLY STAY BELOW GUIDANCE. ALSO PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...
MAINLY IN THE WEST...AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY. SO WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS OUT IN THE WEST.
NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THANKS TO ALL FOR
COLLABORATION
BULLER
&&
.AVIATION...
1027 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. CURRENT HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION TO A MID LEVEL CEILING BY ABOUT 00Z. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AFTER 12Z...BUT
WILL LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES. CURRENT WINDS FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 20G30KT WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FROM THE
NORTH BY 21Z...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN BELOW 10KT FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z.
BLM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 081158
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
558 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
TOUGHER AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS APPEAR ONCE AGAIN TO
BE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE BACKED OFF FOR NOW WITH
ONLY SOME 4-5SM BR ANTICIPATED GIVEN FAIRLY DECENT MIXING. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH SOME CUMULUS FINALLY
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF HE SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. ANTICIPATED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING
EVENING/NIGHT AT KSLN/KHUT/KICT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
CORRECT WITH VERY MODEST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AT FACE
VALUE 0600 UTC GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL WOULD SUGGEST
IFR /LOW IFR CEILINGS/FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KICT/KHUT BY 09/12 UTC.
GIVEN MODEL TRACK RECORDS OVER THE LAST MONTH...WILL KEEP THIS
MVFR FOR NOW. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS
MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL
COOLING. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOW STRATOCUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS
TO BURN OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
PRECLUDE MAXIMUM HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
70S.
STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE AREA A BIT FASTER TONIGHT...SO INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT MAY ALSO BE AIDED
BY MID/UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX...EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS. MAY
SEE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (NOT STRONG/SEVERE) WITH THE
SHOWERS MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND
RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONT.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS SETTLES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS WARMING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FROM MID-LATE WEEK...AS THE MENTIONED MODELS DEVELOP
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONSEQUENTLY...BREEZY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GFS/ECMWF INCREASE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING...PROGRESSING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
BIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF FEATURES...SO DID NOT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.
ADK
FIRE WEATHER...
USING CURING VALUES OF 85-95%...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX
WILL BE "HIGH" TO "VERY HIGH" LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...DUE TO STOUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. PASTURES/GRASSLANDS WITH LOWER CURING VALUES WILL
HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS FIRE DANGER. AFTER A FEW QUIET FIRE
WEATHER DAYS MONDAY-TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 56 61 43 / 0 20 40 30
HUTCHINSON 73 54 59 40 / 0 20 40 30
NEWTON 73 55 60 42 / 0 20 40 30
ELDORADO 74 56 62 44 / 0 20 40 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 56 64 46 / 0 20 40 40
RUSSELL 73 45 57 35 / 0 20 30 10
GREAT BEND 73 47 57 36 / 0 20 40 20
SALINA 73 50 58 39 / 0 20 40 20
MCPHERSON 73 53 59 40 / 0 20 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 74 56 68 47 / 0 10 30 40
CHANUTE 74 56 66 46 / 0 10 30 40
IOLA 74 56 66 46 / 0 10 40 40
PARSONS-KPPF 74 56 68 47 / 0 10 30 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 081148
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
548 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE LLWS FOR TOP AND MHK THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING WITH
925 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE IN
THE NIGHT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE 08Z-10Z TIME
PERIOD. VFR CIGS OF 5 KFT EXPECTED TO FORM AFTER 08Z MONDAY WITH
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. LEFT OUT SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT AS MUCH OF THE LIFT WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z MONDAY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.
53
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
RECENT IMAGERY FROM WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IN
NORTHERN MEXICO. FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS SOUTHERLY
WITH UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS NORTH
ACROSS TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOW VERY
DRY AIR AROUND 850MB...MOVING THIS WAY PER AREA PROFILERS. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE. WITH THE DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. UPSTREAM SURFACE TEMPS FROM SATURDAY SUPPORT MOS NUMBERS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHERN WAVE WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FINALLY EXIT THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIFT ABOVE THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE LACKING GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN A
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY IS
A BIT DEEPER THAN EARLIER PROGS INDICATED...AND WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
THUNDER MENTION MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT AND LIMIT DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES /PERHAPS EVEN LESS/...AND WENT BELOW MOS HERE.
UPPER TROFFING DEVELOPING NEARBY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY RESULTS
FROM A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE...WITH PACIFIC JET SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FORCING DOWNSTREAM CHANGES. THE NAM IS THE
SLOW/WEST OUTLIER WITH THE TROF MOVING OUT ON TUESDAY...AND FAVORED
THE FASTER AND THUS DRIER ECMWF AND GFS GIVEN THEIR HEMISPHERIC
DOMAINS. MAV HIGHS SEEM A BIT WARM THOUGH GIVEN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WERE BUMPED UP WITH AIRMASS A BIT MORE MOIST THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 081117
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
417 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
244 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS THE SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAXES FOR TODAY AND MONDAY A SECONDARY
PROBLEM. SATELLITE SHOWING FAST WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE
NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. DECENT/MODERATE STRENGTH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO UTAH. AS OF 07Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 3 HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS SHOW FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND HAS MADE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON CURRENT JET THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT MID LEVELS...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT MODELS DID FINE ON
THE INITIAL ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWED THROUGH 06Z THAT
THEY WERE TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE NAM WAS THE WORST OFFENDER AND IS WAY TOO DEEP AND SLOW.
THE RUC WAS DOING VERY WELL FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE HANDLING CURRENT SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE
FRONTS LOCATION. THE LATEST RUC MATCHES THESE TWO WELL THROUGH
18Z. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE THERMAL FIELD...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THE WARMER AIR. THE GFS DID BETTER HERE AND OVERALL WAS THE BETTER
MODEL WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. FURTHER NORTH...THE NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE GFS.
GOING BY WHAT REALITY IS SHOWING...WILL MAINLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
RUC/SREF/ECMWF WITH A LITTLE NAM THROWN IN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INTERESTING/PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AS
FRONT MOVES NORTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 50S AS
WINDS INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 MPH. MODELS KEEP THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION GOING WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SETTING IN EVEN WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SHIFT DOES NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE AREA AND EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE/THICKEN
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS MID/UPPER LIFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT
THIS TIME...PLAN ON GOING TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE
WAS A LITTLE COOL YESTERDAY.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON JET POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MAIN PORTION OF THE JET STILL WELL TO THE NORTH. JET MAX COMING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO STILL WELL TO THE WEST. AIR
MASS IS STILL ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH MID LEVELS. THE WIND SHIFT
COMES IN SOON ENOUGH THAT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHED
EAST. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
STRONGEST...PUSHES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO CLEANS OUT THE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STILL THERE. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT IS LEFT
FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. QPF IS EVEN MORE SCANT THAN YESTERDAY. SO THE
CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE JET IS
DURING THE DAY WITH THE SAME TRENDS FROM THE MODELS AS YESTERDAY.
TO START THE DAY...THE ECMWF IS FLATTER/FURTHER EAST WITH JET COMING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/UKMET/GFS ARE SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST WITH
THE JET/TROUGH. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
NAM/UKMET ABOUT THE SAME. THE GFS COMES INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF BY THE END OF THE DAY.
EVEN GOING BY THE MOST FAVORABLE MODELS...JET LIFT LIFT REMAINS
WEAK AND MOSTLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE. WHEN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH A LITTLE BETTER LIFT BUT
NOT THAT STRONG...THERE IS EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
IS EVEN LESS QPF THAN YESTERDAY. SREF/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE NO QPF WITH
THE NAM HAVING BARELY A HUNDREDTH. THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE. WILL
EITHER LIMIT MEASURABLE TO THE FAR NORTH OR JUST HAVE SPRINKLES.
WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LOT OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...AND
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO COOL AND
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE
THE WINDS INCREASE FIRST WITH THE EASTERN HALF AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
THIRD BEING LIGHT FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT. SO LOWERED MINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE AREA PLENTY
OF SUN...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE IN DAY...AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY RECYCLED COOL AIR. EASTERN AREAS WILL
PROBABLY STAY BELOW GUIDANCE. ALSO PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...
MAINLY IN THE WEST...AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY. SO WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS OUT IN THE WEST.
NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THANKS TO ALL FOR
COLLABORATION
BULLER
&&
.AVIATION...
415 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 16Z BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FOLTZ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 080944
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
244 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS THE SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAXES FOR TODAY AND MONDAY A SECONDARY
PROBLEM. SATELLITE SHOWING FAST WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE
NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. DECENT/MODERATE STRENGTH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO UTAH. AS OF 07Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 3 HOUR
PRESSURE FALLS SHOW FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND HAS MADE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON CURRENT JET THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT MID LEVELS...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT MODELS DID FINE ON
THE INITIAL ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWED THROUGH 06Z THAT
THEY WERE TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE NAM WAS THE WORST OFFENDER AND IS WAY TOO DEEP AND SLOW.
THE RUC WAS DOING VERY WELL FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE HANDLING CURRENT SURFACE
WIND/PRESSURE FIELD VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE
FRONTS LOCATION. THE LATEST RUC MATCHES THESE TWO WELL THROUGH
18Z. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE THERMAL FIELD...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THE WARMER AIR. THE GFS DID BETTER HERE AND OVERALL WAS THE BETTER
MODEL WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. FURTHER NORTH...THE NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE GFS.
GOING BY WHAT REALITY IS SHOWING...WILL MAINLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
RUC/SREF/ECMWF WITH A LITTLE NAM THROWN IN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INTERESTING/PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AS
FRONT MOVES NORTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 50S AS
WINDS INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 MPH. MODELS KEEP THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION GOING WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SETTING IN EVEN WHEN THE
WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SHIFT DOES NOT
CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE AREA AND EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE/THICKEN
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS MID/UPPER LIFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT
THIS TIME...PLAN ON GOING TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE
WAS A LITTLE COOL YESTERDAY.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON JET POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
MAIN PORTION OF THE JET STILL WELL TO THE NORTH. JET MAX COMING DOWN
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO STILL WELL TO THE WEST. AIR
MASS IS STILL ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH MID LEVELS. THE WIND SHIFT
COMES IN SOON ENOUGH THAT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHED
EAST. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
STRONGEST...PUSHES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO CLEANS OUT THE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STILL THERE. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT IS LEFT
FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. QPF IS EVEN MORE SCANT THAN YESTERDAY. SO THE
CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE JET IS
DURING THE DAY WITH THE SAME TRENDS FROM THE MODELS AS YESTERDAY.
TO START THE DAY...THE ECMWF IS FLATTER/FURTHER EAST WITH JET COMING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/UKMET/GFS ARE SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST WITH
THE JET/TROUGH. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
NAM/UKMET ABOUT THE SAME. THE GFS COMES INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF BY THE END OF THE DAY.
EVEN GOING BY THE MOST FAVORABLE MODELS...JET LIFT LIFT REMAINS
WEAK AND MOSTLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE. WHEN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH A LITTLE BETTER LIFT BUT
NOT THAT STRONG...THERE IS EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE
IS EVEN LESS QPF THAN YESTERDAY. SREF/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE NO QPF WITH
THE NAM HAVING BARELY A HUNDREDTH. THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE. WILL
EITHER LIMIT MEASURABLE TO THE FAR NORTH OR JUST HAVE SPRINKLES.
WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LOT OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...AND
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO COOL AND
CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AS
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE
THE WINDS INCREASE FIRST WITH THE EASTERN HALF AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
THIRD BEING LIGHT FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT. SO LOWERED MINS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE AREA PLENTY
OF SUN...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE IN DAY...AS RETURN FLOW
BEGINS WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY RECYCLED COOL AIR. EASTERN AREAS WILL
PROBABLY STAY BELOW GUIDANCE. ALSO PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...
MAINLY IN THE WEST...AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY. SO WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS OUT IN THE WEST.
NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THANKS TO ALL FOR
COLLABORATION
BULLER
&&
.AVIATION...
244 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VALID
PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION NEAR 15Z AND
BECOME GUSTY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 080942
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS PROGGED TO CROSS SW KS LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CROSSES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIALLY AS THIS FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KS PCPN
CHANCES NOT APPEARING TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES THE OKLAHOMA BORDER 85H MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS
85H WAA, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BETTER 925-85H FGEN DEVELOPS. AS A
RESULT WILL KEEP HIGH CHC POPS OF -RW DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT IN
OUR SE CWA WHILE LEAVING DRYER CONDITIONS FURTHER NW.
ON MONDAY A 5H S/W TROF IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWA WITH 7H WAA
AND MID LVL MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. LOW LVL MOISTURE
STILL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED IN OUR SE AND SOUTHERN
MOST CWA SO WILL BE KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS ON MONDAY IN OUR S/SE
CWA AND EVEN CONTINUE SOME LINGER POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON
THE TIMING OF THE 5H TROF.
AS FOR TODAY...LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NICE DAY BASED ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT AND NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH HIGHS TODAY SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DAYS 3-7...
MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES BY WED/THU
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ADVERTISED TO PASS NORTH OF OUR
AREA.
THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
FOR THE FRI-SUNDAY PERIOD. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
PREVIOUS FCST, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. HOW COOL WE GET
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CLOUD BASE MAY LOWER TO
6-10KFT BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z 9TH
IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 74 45 53 35 / 0 20 40 20
GCK 71 41 54 33 / 0 10 20 10
EHA 75 42 54 36 / 0 20 20 20
LBL 75 43 56 34 / 0 20 30 20
HYS 72 42 56 33 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 51 57 40 / 0 30 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN18/24/24
000
FXUS63 KDDC 080934
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER EARLIER THIS
MORNING REMAINS PROGGED TO CROSS SW KS LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CROSSES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIALLY AS THIS FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LVL DYNAMICS WERE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
BUT AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES THE OKLAHOMA BORDER 85H MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS 85H WAA, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BETTER 925-85H
FGEN DEVELOPS. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP HIGH CHC POPS OF -RW
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT IN OUR SE CWA WHILE LEAVING DRYER
CONDITIONS FURTHER NW.
ON MONDAY A 5H S/W TROF IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWA WITH 7H WAA
AND MID LVL MOISTURE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. LOW LVL MOISTURE
STILL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY CONFINED IN OUR SE AND SOUTHERN
MOST CWA SO WILL BE KEEPING THE HIGHER POPS ON MONDAY IN OUR S/SE
CWA AND EVEN CONTINUE SOME LINGER POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON
THE TIMING OF THE 5H TROF.
AS FOR TODAY...LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE NICE DAY BASED ON TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT AND NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH HIGHS TODAY SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DAYS 3-7...
MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES BY WED/THU
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ADVERTISED TO PASS NORTH OF OUR
AREA.
THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
FOR THE FRI-SUNDAY PERIOD. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. DECIDED TO KEEP THE
PREVIOUS FCST, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD COOL AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. HOW COOL WE GET
WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CLOUD BASE MAY LOWER TO 6-10KFT
BY THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z 9TH IMMEDIATELY NORTH
OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 74 45 53 35 / 0 20 40 20
GCK 71 41 54 33 / 0 10 20 10
EHA 75 42 54 36 / 0 20 20 20
LBL 75 43 56 34 / 0 20 30 20
HYS 72 42 56 33 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 51 57 40 / 0 30 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN18/24/24
000
FXUS63 KTOP 080934
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
334 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
RECENT IMAGERY FROM WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IN
NORTHERN MEXICO. FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS SOUTHERLY
WITH UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS NORTH
ACROSS TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHOW VERY
DRY AIR AROUND 850MB...MOVING THIS WAY PER AREA PROFILERS. MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT SURFACE DEWPOINTS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE. WITH THE DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
MOISTURE...ONLY EXPECTING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. UPSTREAM SURFACE TEMPS FROM SATURDAY SUPPORT MOS NUMBERS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S.
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHERN WAVE WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND FINALLY EXIT THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIFT ABOVE THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE LACKING GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN A
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY IS
A BIT DEEPER THAN EARLIER PROGS INDICATED...AND WILL GO AHEAD WITH A
THUNDER MENTION MONDAY. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY BE RATHER PERSISTENT AND LIMIT DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMPERATURES TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES /PERHAPS EVEN LESS/...AND WENT BELOW MOS HERE.
UPPER TROFFING DEVELOPING NEARBY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY RESULTS
FROM A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE...WITH PACIFIC JET SHIFTING NORTH
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FORCING DOWNSTREAM CHANGES. THE NAM IS THE
SLOW/WEST OUTLIER WITH THE TROF MOVING OUT ON TUESDAY...AND FAVORED
THE FASTER AND THUS DRIER ECMWF AND GFS GIVEN THEIR HEMISPHERIC
DOMAINS. MAV HIGHS SEEM A BIT WARM THOUGH GIVEN GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WERE BUMPED UP WITH AIRMASS A BIT MORE MOIST THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED.
65
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL SKEPTICAL ABOUT STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON LOW CIGS AND SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. PROFILER AND VAD PROFILES CONTINUE TO
SHOW 925 WINDS INCREASING WHICH WILL INCREASE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL WAIT TO SEE 05Z OBS...BUT MAY PULL THE TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS BECAUSE MODEL PROGS ARE SO SHALLOW WITH THE MOISTURE. LLWS
COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 1000 FT
OF 30-40KT.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 080925
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT.
ALL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS
MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL
COOLING. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOW STRATOCUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...BUT SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS
TO BURN OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY
PRECLUDE MAXIMUM HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
70S.
STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY-MONDAY
NIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES INTO THE AREA A BIT FASTER TONIGHT...SO INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT MAY ALSO BE AIDED
BY MID/UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX...EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS. MAY
SEE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (NOT STRONG/SEVERE) WITH THE
SHOWERS MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND
RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL...NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE
MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONT.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS SETTLES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND.
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE
GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS WARMING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS FROM MID-LATE WEEK...AS THE MENTIONED MODELS DEVELOP
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONSEQUENTLY...BREEZY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES) SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GFS/ECMWF INCREASE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING...PROGRESSING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
BIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF FEATURES...SO DID NOT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE SHALLOW STRATUS HASN`T FORMED OVER OK OR SRN KS...YET. HOWEVER
WITH RICHER 925 MB MOISTURE STREAMING NE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON
STRENGTHENING 40-45KT LOW-LVL JET...AM STILL CONFIDENT STRATUS OF
~1,000FT WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUN MORNING OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO
DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH 925 MB MOISTURE AXIS. STRENGTHENING
925 MB JET DICTATES LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR COMMENTARY OVER KHUT...KICT
& KCNU TIL 14Z. BEING SHALLOW IN NATURE THE STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID SUN MORNING.
EPS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
USING CURING VALUES OF 85-95%...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL
BE "HIGH" TO "VERY HIGH" LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...DUE TO STOUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. PASTURES/GRASSLANDS WITH LOWER CURING VALUES WILL
HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS FIRE DANGER. AFTER A FEW QUIET FIRE WEATHER
DAYS MONDAY-TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN
BY WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 56 61 43 / 0 20 40 30
HUTCHINSON 73 54 59 40 / 0 20 40 30
NEWTON 73 55 60 42 / 0 20 40 30
ELDORADO 74 56 62 44 / 0 20 40 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 74 56 64 46 / 0 20 40 40
RUSSELL 73 45 57 35 / 0 20 30 10
GREAT BEND 73 47 57 36 / 0 20 40 20
SALINA 73 50 58 39 / 0 20 40 20
MCPHERSON 73 53 59 40 / 0 20 40 30
COFFEYVILLE 74 56 68 47 / 0 10 30 40
CHANUTE 74 56 66 46 / 0 10 30 40
IOLA 74 56 66 46 / 0 10 40 40
PARSONS-KPPF 74 56 68 47 / 0 10 30 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 080543
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...06 TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE SHALLOW STRATUS HASN`T FORMED OVER OK OR SRN KS...YET. HOWEVER
WITH RICHER 925-MB MOISTURE STREAMING NE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON
STRENGTHENING 40-45KT LOW-LVL JET...AM STILL CONFIDENT STRATUS OF
~1,000FT WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUN MORNING OVER THESE AREAS WHERE
NO DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH 925-MB MOISTURE AXIS. STRENGTHENING
925-MB JET DICTATES LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR COMMENTARY OVER KHUT...KICT
& KCNU TIL ~08/14Z. BEING SHALLOW IN NATURE THE STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID SUN MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NUMBER 1 CONCERN IS FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP & SPREAD N ACROSS
MOST OF OK & SC/SE KS LATE TONIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES OVER
CNTRL KS BY 08/06Z & AS BOUNDARY LIFTS DUE N ACROSS KS/NEBRASKA
BORDER ENSUING LWR-DECK SLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE N
OVER MOST AREAS ~08/09Z. FOR NOW AM FAVORING THE DAMPER NAM MODEL
WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO A MORE PESSIMISTIC CIG FCST FOR ALL OF
SC & SE KS TERMINALS FROM ~08/09Z-08/16Z. GRADUALLY INCREASING SLY
FLOW SHOULD PREVENT IFR VSBYS FROM BEING REALIZED. MOISTURE LAYER
IS SHALLOW & WITH SLY WINDS STEADILY INCREASING EARLY SUN MORNING
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO ACHIEVE VFR STATUS MID-SUN MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES MON AND MON NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH A SMALL CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF BAJA. AT THE SURFACE
THERE IS SOME LEE TROUGH IN PLACE WITH A BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
SOUTH OF KGBD TO NEAR KMCI. THIS FEATURE HAS VERY LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY ACROSS IT AND IS MORE OF JUST A WIND SHIFT.
TONIGHT-SUN:
THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL TONIGHT INTO
SUN WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS. WITH THIS UPPER PATTERN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE MUCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE 70S. IN ADDITION WITH SOUTH
WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT...WE MAY THREATEN A FEW WARMEST LOW RECORDS.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON TAKING SOME ENERGY OUT OF THE
GULF AND TRACKING IT INTO SE KS. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER LIFTING THIS
ENERGY NORTH AND HAS IT AFFECTING THE AREA BY 00Z MON WHILE THE NAM
HAS IT MOVING IN AROUND 09Z MON. INITIAL THOUGHT WAS TO INSERT SOME
PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND TAKE A LOOK AT LATER
RUNS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH
SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME SOME MID AND UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
ALSO SLIDE THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS POINT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THETA-E ADVECTION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THE RESULT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG UP UNTIL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTH OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA ON MON EVENING. THUS WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCES
MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SE KS.
TUE-SAT:
THE AIRMASS TO MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
AND THUS WILL ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON WED AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN SOME WARM
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FOR WED WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THU WHICH WILL ALLOW THE MILD CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL. FRI INTO SAT OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHICH LEADS TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE
WILL NOT INSERT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 74 55 62 / 0 0 10 30
HUTCHINSON 52 74 53 61 / 0 0 10 30
NEWTON 54 74 54 61 / 0 0 10 30
ELDORADO 55 75 55 62 / 0 0 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 54 75 55 65 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELL 46 73 46 58 / 0 0 10 30
GREAT BEND 47 73 47 59 / 0 0 10 30
SALINA 51 74 50 60 / 0 0 10 30
MCPHERSON 52 74 52 61 / 0 0 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 55 77 55 68 / 0 0 10 30
CHANUTE 55 77 55 66 / 0 0 10 30
IOLA 55 77 55 65 / 0 0 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 55 77 55 67 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 080437
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1037 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL SKEPTICAL ABOUT STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON LOW CIGS AND SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. PROFILER AND VAD PROFILES CONTINUE TO
SHOW 925 WINDS INCREASING WHICH WILL INCREASE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. WILL WAIT TO SEE 05Z OBS...BUT MAY PULL THE TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS BECAUSE MODEL PROGS ARE SO SHALLOW WITH THE MOISTURE. LLWS
COULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 1000 FT
OF 30-40KT.
WOLTERS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
H5 LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS OVER NE KANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS BISECTING THE TOP CWA.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE AS WELL AS A LLVL INVERSION
SETTING UP. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND WILL LIKELY
SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK AT SUNRISE. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT CLOSER TO WARMER MOS NUMBERS.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA
TODAY COMES BACK AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR
WESTERN KANSAS. WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY FORECAST AND
CLEARED SKIES OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. HAVE KEPT
THE LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER SINCE
BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE FRONT NEAR THERE AT THAT TIME.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE BEST MOISTURE MOSTLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH NAM/GFS
315K ISENT SURFACE SHOW LOWEST COND PRESS DEF IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 18Z. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA.
TUESDAY...NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE TOP CWA WILL HELP TO BRING
HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE MID TO UPER 50S.
SALLY
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST LEFT RELATIVELY
UNTOUCHED. ECMWF INDICATES MOSTLY ZONAL H5 FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG SURGE OF
RELATIVELY WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH. WITH SEASONAL NORMS TYPICALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. CURRENTLY
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF 70 DEGREE WEATHER SHOULD THE SOUTHERLY SURGE
STRENGTHEN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF PREFERENCE. THE USUALLY
PROGRESSIVE GFS PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FROPA OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 080005
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
605 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
NUMBER 1 CONCERN IS FOR IFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP & SPREAD N ACROSS
MOST OF OK & SC/SE KS LATE TONIGHT. WARM FRONTOGENESIS ENSUES OVER
CNTRL KS BY 08/06Z & AS BOUNDARY LIFTS DUE N ACROSS KS/NEBRASKA
BORDER ENSUING LWR-DECK SLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT RICHER MOISTURE N
OVER MOST AREAS ~08/09Z. FOR NOW AM FAVORING THE DAMPER NAM MODEL
WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO A MORE PESSIMISTIC CIG FCST FOR ALL OF
SC & SE KS TERMINALS FROM ~08/09Z-08/16Z. GRADUALLY INCREASING SLY
FLOW SHOULD PREVENT IFR VSBYS FROM BEING REALIZED. MOISTURE LAYER
IS SHALLOW & WITH SLY WINDS STEADILY INCREASING EARLY SUN MORNING
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO ACHIEVE VFR STATUS MID-SUN MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES MON AND MON NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH A SMALL CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF BAJA. AT THE SURFACE
THERE IS SOME LEE TROUGH IN PLACE WITH A BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
SOUTH OF KGBD TO NEAR KMCI. THIS FEATURE HAS VERY LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY ACROSS IT AND IS MORE OF JUST A WIND SHIFT.
TONIGHT-SUN:
THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL TONIGHT INTO
SUN WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS. WITH THIS UPPER PATTERN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE MUCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE 70S. IN ADDITION WITH SOUTH
WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT...WE MAY THREATEN A FEW WARMEST LOW RECORDS.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON TAKING SOME ENERGY OUT OF THE
GULF AND TRACKING IT INTO SE KS. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER LIFTING THIS
ENERGY NORTH AND HAS IT AFFECTING THE AREA BY 00Z MON WHILE THE NAM
HAS IT MOVING IN AROUND 09Z MON. INITIAL THOUGHT WAS TO INSERT SOME
PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND TAKE A LOOK AT LATER
RUNS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH
SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME SOME MID AND UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
ALSO SLIDE THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS POINT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THETA-E ADVECTION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THE RESULT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG UP UNTIL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTH OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA ON MON EVENING. THUS WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCES
MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SE KS.
TUE-SAT:
THE AIRMASS TO MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
AND THUS WILL ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON WED AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN SOME WARM
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FOR WED WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THU WHICH WILL ALLOW THE MILD CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL. FRI INTO SAT OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHICH LEADS TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE
WILL NOT INSERT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 74 55 62 / 0 0 10 30
HUTCHINSON 52 74 53 61 / 0 0 10 30
NEWTON 54 74 54 61 / 0 0 10 30
ELDORADO 55 75 55 62 / 0 0 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 54 75 55 65 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELL 46 73 46 58 / 0 0 10 30
GREAT BEND 47 73 47 59 / 0 0 10 30
SALINA 51 74 50 60 / 0 0 10 30
MCPHERSON 52 74 52 61 / 0 0 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 55 77 55 68 / 0 0 10 30
CHANUTE 55 77 55 66 / 0 0 10 30
IOLA 55 77 55 65 / 0 0 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 55 77 55 67 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 072309
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
509 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL RH OVERNIGHT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE LIFTS THE
SFC TROUGH NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO SATURATE WITH
THE MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE SINCE THERE IS NOT A REAL STRONG SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WOULD PREFER TO SEE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SO CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS FORMATION IS
LOW...BUT SINCE PREV FORECAST ALREADY INTRODUCED IT...WILL NOT
REMOVE THE MVFR CIGS FROM TOP AND FOE. INCREASING MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE VSBY RESTRICTIONS HARD TO COME BY.
WOLTERS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
H5 LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS OVER NE KANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS BISECTING THE TOP CWA.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE AS WELL AS A LLVL INVERSION
SETTING UP. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND WILL LIKELY
SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK AT SUNRISE. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT CLOSER TO WARMER MOS NUMBERS.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA
TODAY COMES BACK AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR
WESTERN KANSAS. WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY FORECAST AND
CLEARED SKIES OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. HAVE KEPT
THE LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER SINCE
BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE FRONT NEAR THERE AT THAT TIME.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE BEST MOISTURE MOSTLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH NAM/GFS
315K ISENT SURFACE SHOW LOWEST COND PRESS DEF IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 18Z. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA.
TUESDAY...NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE TOP CWA WILL HELP TO BRING
HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE MID TO UPER 50S.
SALLY
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST LEFT RELATIVELY
UNTOUCHED. ECMWF INDICATES MOSTLY ZONAL H5 FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG SURGE OF
RELATIVELY WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH. WITH SEASONAL NORMS TYPICALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. CURRENTLY
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF 70 DEGREE WEATHER SHOULD THE SOUTHERLY SURGE
STRENGTHEN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF PREFERENCE. THE USUALLY
PROGRESSIVE GFS PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FROPA OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 072154
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
254 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
250 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS HAVING AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LIES FROM NORTH OF KANSAS CITY SOUTHWEST TO
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT SEPARATES TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER TX/OK FROM THE COOLER 60S-LOW 70S OVER
OUR REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AND DRIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE ONCE AGAIN BEING SHUNTED SOUTH BY AN
INTENSIFYING SURFACE HIGH OVER NEBRASKA MONDAY. FOR THE MOST
PART...NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS
FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS
WILL PLACE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SW AND SC
KANSAS ON MONDAY AS LIFT FROM AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
CONTINUED LOW POPS IN MONDAYS FORECAST. ISENTROPIC CHARTS MAINTAIN
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS OUR IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS WEAK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A
DECENT AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER MONDAY...THE
MODEL QPF FIELD KEEPS PRECIPITATION MORE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
FRONTAL POSITION TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. OTHER
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS OUTCOME.
FROM TUE-THU THE PATTERN LOOKS QUIET FOR THE TRI STATE AREA BEFORE
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES FOR THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
GFS IS FASTER AND HAS MOST OF THE ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND SCOOTS
THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH IN THE FRI-EARLY SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
AND DRAGS OUT THE RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT PRECIPITATION
TIMING IS A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE FOR FRI-SUN UNTIL THE MODELS MORE
CLOSELY ALIGN THEMSELVES WITH A FINAL SOLUTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEK UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.
DLF
&&
.AVIATION...
1027 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VALID
PERIOD. WINDS WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL SHIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT
FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE 15G20KT RANGE
AFTER ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
50
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 072137
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
WE HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST IN THE FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS, WITH THE MAIN PROBLEMS FOCUSING ON CHANCES FOR RAIN OR RAIN
SHOWERS, AND TO A LESSER DEGREES TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM TODAY`S 12 UTC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A BROAD DEEP ZONAL JET ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC REGION
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH ATTENDANT CYCLONE OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
A QUITE IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL WITH -30 DEG C AIR AT 500 MB WAS BEING
PULLED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLD, BUT SOME BAROCLINICITY
DOES EXIST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. A TRUE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WAS ALSO IN PLACE FROM AROUND CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHILE THE TROUGH OR WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDED
NORTHWEST WINDS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING.
THE WARM 850 MB AIR THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION HAS A FAIRLY
WEAK BUT DEFINED GRADIENT WITH STILL IMPRESSIVE +8 TO +10 DEG C AIR
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS NOT A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH WITH
THE SFC-850 MB COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT LATE TODAY, EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED WHICH WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASE
SURFACE DEW POINTS FOR TONIGHT PERHAPS IN THE FAR EAST, BUT
QUITE DRY AIR WILL BE INCREASING IN THE WEST. THE LARGE TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE AN EASTERLY TRACK INTO WEST TEXAS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEREFORE A PERIOD OF CIRRUS SHOULD
INCREASE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 700 MB COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SHIFTING FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL ON SUNDAY. WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT, AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION BEHIND THE NORTHWARD FLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR, A ZONE OF
ROUGHLY 305-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DO HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES HANDLING THE EPISODE. THE GFS APPEARS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONGER ASCENT AND HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS;
DEVELOPING IT FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY
ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHILE THE NAM/WRF MODEL
DEVELOPS A BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT SIGNAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
20-60 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING WITH OUR GREATEST CHANCES FROM AROUND
RUSH CENTER THROUGH GREENSBURG AND ASHLAND.
THE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO SOME RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50S IN MANY AREAS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS, THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE ONLY A FEW
DEGREES, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
RUSSELL
DAYS 3-7...
A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS KANSAS ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING MOSTLY IN THE EAST CWA, THEN
RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THURSDAY. AS HEIGHTS LOWER ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEW
ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE FASTER GFS ON THE COLD FRONT AND
WILL FOLLOW THAT SOLUTION. THE GFS IS STILL TRENDING FASTER WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF IS LAGGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF ALSO PAINTS MORE
QPF ACROSS THE PLAINS OF KANSAS BY THE WEEKEND SO WILL KEEP THAT
TREND GOING WITH LIGHT SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 30S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN MODERATING
UNDER SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WARM FROM AROUND 60 ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE 60S
TO AROUND 70 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE
50S BY THE WEEKEND OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS TOWARDS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTH AS A WEAK
COOL FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
06
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 48 75 50 55 / 0 10 20 40
GCK 42 69 45 53 / 0 10 10 20
EHA 41 73 44 52 / 0 10 20 20
LBL 45 77 46 55 / 0 10 20 30
HYS 48 70 47 54 / 0 10 20 30
P28 51 75 55 60 / 0 10 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN33/06
000
FXUS63 KTOP 072136
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
336 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...H5 LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
WAS OVER NE KANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS BISECTING THE TOP CWA.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TIME/HEIGHT
SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE AS WELL AS A LLVL INVERSION
SETTING UP. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS FROM MIDNIGHT ON AND WILL LIKELY
SEE A LOW STRATUS DECK AT SUNRISE. THIS WILL IN TURN KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT CLOSER TO WARMER MOS NUMBERS.
SUNDAY...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA
TODAY COMES BACK AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR
WESTERN KANSAS. WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY FORECAST AND
CLEARED SKIES OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. HAVE KEPT
THE LOW CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER SINCE
BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW THE FRONT NEAR THERE AT THAT TIME.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE BEST MOISTURE MOSTLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH NAM/GFS
315K ISENT SURFACE SHOW LOWEST COND PRESS DEF IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 18Z. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CWA...HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA.
TUESDAY...NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE TOP CWA WILL HELP TO BRING
HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE MID TO UPER 50S.
SALLY
&&
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST LEFT RELATIVELY
UNTOUCHED. ECMWF INDICATES MOSTLY ZONAL H5 FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING A FAIRLY STRONG SURGE OF
RELATIVELY WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH. WITH SEASONAL NORMS TYPICALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. CURRENTLY
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF 70 DEGREE WEATHER SHOULD THE SOUTHERLY SURGE
STRENGTHEN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY MORNING
OR AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF PREFERENCE. THE USUALLY
PROGRESSIVE GFS PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FROPA OFF UNTIL LATER
IN THE DAY.
JL
&&
.AVIATION...18 UTC AVIATION FORECAST
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. AN AIRMASS THAT PRODUCED
VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL BE
MOVING IN. ANTICIPATE SOME COMBO OF LOWER VIS AND PERHAPS SOME
STRATUS AS WELL BY MORNING. FOG COULD SET IN... PARTICULARLY AT
FOE IF THE WINDS CAN DROP OFF A BIT BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND VIS MAY STAY A BIT
BETTER THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TAKING OVER.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 072124
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES MON AND MON NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
CURRENTLY HAVE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW ON SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WITH A SMALL CLOSED LOW JUST EAST OF BAJA. AT THE SURFACE
THERE IS SOME LEE TROUGH IN PLACE WITH A BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
SOUTH OF KGBD TO NEAR KMCI. THIS FEATURE HAS VERY LITTLE
BAROCLINICITY ACROSS IT AND IS MORE OF JUST A WIND SHIFT.
TONIGHT-SUN:
THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL TONIGHT INTO
SUN WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS. WITH THIS UPPER PATTERN THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO MOVE MUCH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ALL LOCATIONS IN THE 70S. IN ADDITION WITH SOUTH
WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT...WE MAY THREATEN A FEW WARMEST LOW RECORDS.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON TAKING SOME ENERGY OUT OF THE
GULF AND TRACKING IT INTO SE KS. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER LIFTING THIS
ENERGY NORTH AND HAS IT AFFECTING THE AREA BY 00Z MON WHILE THE NAM
HAS IT MOVING IN AROUND 09Z MON. INITIAL THOUGHT WAS TO INSERT SOME
PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND TAKE A LOOK AT LATER
RUNS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON SUN NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO PUSH
SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME SOME MID AND UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO
ALSO SLIDE THROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. AT THIS POINT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR THERE WILL BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THETA-E ADVECTION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THE RESULT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO SLIDE THROUGH. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG UP UNTIL ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS SOUTH OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA ON MON EVENING. THUS WILL LINGER PRECIP CHANCES
MON NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SE KS.
TUE-SAT:
THE AIRMASS TO MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
AND THUS WILL ONLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON WED AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN SOME WARM
ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FOR WED WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THU WHICH WILL ALLOW THE MILD CONDITIONS TO ONCE AGAIN
PREVAIL. FRI INTO SAT OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. IN ADDITION THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHICH LEADS TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE
WILL NOT INSERT PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PRESSURE FALLS TO LEE OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN KS...TO LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT.
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL THEN RESUME AREAWIDE TONIGHT-SUNDAY.
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO OUR SOUTH IN ERN TX/SERN OK SHOWING SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING AS OF MIDDAY. THE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THAT
REGION WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN KS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THAT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD
TO TRANSIENT SCT-BKN IFR CLOUD DECKS IN OUR AREA EARLY SUN
AM...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE AM.
JMC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 54 74 55 62 / 0 0 10 30
HUTCHINSON 52 74 53 61 / 0 0 10 30
NEWTON 54 74 54 61 / 0 0 10 30
ELDORADO 55 75 55 62 / 0 0 10 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 54 75 55 65 / 0 0 10 30
RUSSELL 46 73 46 58 / 0 0 10 30
GREAT BEND 47 73 47 59 / 0 0 10 30
SALINA 51 74 50 60 / 0 0 10 30
MCPHERSON 52 74 52 61 / 0 0 10 30
COFFEYVILLE 55 77 55 68 / 0 0 10 30
CHANUTE 55 77 55 66 / 0 0 10 30
IOLA 55 77 55 65 / 0 0 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 55 77 55 67 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 071733
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
223 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW MUCH TO COOL MAXES OFF THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THAT MID/UPPER RIDGE
THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA HAS BEEN FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST. FAST
WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS OF 06Z COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN WYOMING
AND THROUGH MOST OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE STRONG JET SEGMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT MID
LEVELS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN. AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS
HAVING A REALLY BAD TIME IN DEPICTING SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THEY ALSO APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT. OVERALL THE ECMWF DID THE BEST. THE UKMET AND ECMWF
ARE HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD THE BEST. CONSIDERING
WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING...WILL BE BASING THIS FORECAST MOSTLY
ON THE ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF THE UPPER JET STARTS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES AWAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON. OTHERWISE MAIN JET AXIS
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. NOT SURE HOW COOLING WILL RECEIVE
TODAY. SERIES OF PREFRONTAL TROUGHS IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. MAIN
COOLING INITIALLY MAY BE JUST BECAUSE OF THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION. MSAS 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
MOST OF THE BIGGER PRESSURE RISES ARE STAYING WELL NORTH AND ARE
MOVING MORE WEST TO EAST. ALSO FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RATHER STRONG
FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL SERVE ENHANCE THE LEE TROUGH.
SO A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT/MAIN COOLING LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO
GO. EVEN DESPITE THAT...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS WARM. INTERESTING
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WHATEVER BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY...
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN SURGES BACK SOUTH LATE IN
THE NIGHT. DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF.
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVE
THROUGH UNTIL 18Z AND AFTER. THERE IS INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE A
LOT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THICKEST IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLED
OFF THE NORTHWEST HALF AND WARMED UP THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. TENDED
TO STAY BELOW GUIDANCE WHICH WAS THE 2 METER.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE NAM AND UKMET ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
INCOMING TROUGH AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN JET AXIS MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UKMET FURTHEST SOUTH. THE GFS IS
MORE LIKE THOSE TWO MODELS BUT IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE ECMWF
FURTHEST NORTH. THE NAM PUTS AREA IN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT WITH
POSSIBLE COUPLED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET. THE GFS HAS
THE AREA IN A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THIS SAME TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE
AREA IN A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET...WHICH IS NOT TOO STRONG...
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF KEEP THE
MAIN JET LIFT WELL NORTH. CONSIDERING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
LIKE THE FLATTER FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AT MID LEVELS AND CONSIDERING THE
FLOW ALOFT...WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS WILL GET RUNG OUT BY THE
MOUNTAINS. ALSO A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS/FRONTS AND RESULTING
SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD CONFIRM WHAT REALITY IS NOW
INDICATING. SO REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY...AND ADDED SPRINKLES. THE BEST LIFT...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
AND QPF FAVOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AND CONFIGURED THE
POPS THAT WAY. IF CANADIAN VERIFIES WILL RECEIVE NO PRECIPITATION.
NO MATTER HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS...LOOK TO HAVE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MAXES FROM NEAR 50 TO MAYBE 55
LOOK TO BE REASONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST HALF. THAT SUPPORTS GOING TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.
NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THANKS TO ALL FOR
COLLABORATION
BULLER
&&
.AVIATION...
1027 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VALID
PERIOD. WINDS WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL SHIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT
FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND THE 15G20KT RANGE
AFTER ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
50
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 071733
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1133 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PRESSURE FALLS TO LEE OF CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW WEAK FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN KS...TO LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT.
A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL THEN RESUME AREAWIDE TONIGHT-SUNDAY.
IFR/MVFR CIGS TO OUR SOUTH IN ERN TX/SERN OK SHOWING SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING AS OF MIDDAY. THE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THAT
REGION WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO ADVECT NWD INTO ERN KS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THAT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD
TO TRANSIENT SCT-BKN IFR CLOUD DECKS IN OUR AREA EARLY SUN
AM...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE AM.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS NEAR THE WEAK FRONT. THE FRONT IS THROUGH
KRSL AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KHUT.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AND BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING. WITH FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTH LATER TODAY...GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WINDS OFF DECK WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS FAIRLY MIXED AND
PREDOMINATELY GUSTY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING.
WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL KS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE MAXIMUM HEATING OVER CENTRAL KS DUE TO LIMITED
MIXING...ALTHOUGH STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...WITH
MID-UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER MIXING.
THESE READINGS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT JUST SHORT
OF RECORD HIGHS (RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE IN THE LOW 80S).
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
MONDAY DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THINKING THEY SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-LATE
MORNING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE CLOUDS TO AFFECT SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS ON
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CONUS...SURGING A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING...ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS
OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY ANY MEANS DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. ENDED UP INCREASING
POPS INTO THE 30-40% REALM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A PACIFIC
AIRMASS SETTLES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND.
DESPITE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS WARMING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS THE MENTIONED MODELS DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. SO...ONCE THE MONDAY SYSTEM
PASSES...BREEZY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES)
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN.
ADK
FIRE WEATHER... GIVEN OBSERVED AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY INFERRED
GRASSLAND CURING VALUES...DECIDED YESTERDAY TO INCREASE CURING
VALUES BY 5-10% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCREASING CURING VALUES
INTO THE 80-95% RANGE. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX FROM HERE ON OUT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANTICIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 15-30 DAYS CURING VALUES WILL BE INCREASED TO 100%
ALL AREAS...AS WINTER SETS IN.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 75 53 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 75 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 76 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 77 55 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 73 48 72 44 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 74 50 72 46 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 73 52 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 74 53 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 77 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 76 54 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 76 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 77 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 071717
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1117 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. AN AIRMASS THAT PRODUCED
VIS AND CIG RESTRICTIONS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL BE
MOVING IN. ANTICIPATE SOME COMBO OF LOWER VIS AND PERHAPS SOME
STRATUS AS WELL BY MORNING. FOG COULD SET IN... PARTICULARLY AT
FOE IF THE WINDS CAN DROP OFF A BIT BUT IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PROMOTE MIXING AND VIS MAY STAY A BIT
BETTER THAN IT OTHERWISE WOULD. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TAKING OVER.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
00Z UPPER AIR DATA AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL
UPSTREAM FEATURES OF NOTE. LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WITH BROAD AND SOMEWHAT FAST UPPER JET
FROM 35N TO 45N OVER THE PACIFIC. APPEARS ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW
WAS APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON COAST AT 08Z. FARTHER EAST...AN
UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE BAJA
REGION...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF WAS AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVED ALONG
THE SASKATCHEWAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA. A MODIFIED PACIFIC
FRONT WITH NEARLY VERTICAL CONTINUITY UP TO 850MB WITH THE LATTER
WAVE WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA AT 0Z...WITH RECENT PROFILER...RADAR VWP...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS PUTTING IT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 08Z.
ALTERATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE WAVE TO THE NORTH CONTINUING TO
PUSH EAST WILL STALL THE WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR INTERSTATE 70
TODAY...PROVIDING MUCH WEAKER WINDS THAN FRIDAY BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND SHOULD BE SAFE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 925MB TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS
NORTH...AND MODELS AGAIN SHOWING POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS MOVING IN LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WITH SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
SOLD ON WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. ANY CLOUD SHOULD BE RATHER
SHALLOW AND MIX OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING AND GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE PROVIDING
ANOTHER SIMILARLY WARM DAY EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD.
DESPITE THE MUDDLED AFOREMENTIONED FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST...THE
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN THE PAC NW WAVE DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THOUGH THE BAJA WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH DECENT MID
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME COUPLING OF EXITING UPPER JET TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WESTERN JET MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION TO RESULT MAINLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRETCHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER...AND THUNDER
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE LOW. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE MUCH
CLOSER TO MID NOVEMBER NORMALS.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 071151
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
551 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS NEAR THE WEAK FRONT. THE FRONT IS THROUGH
KRSL AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF KSLN/KHUT.
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AND BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING. WITH FRONT PUSHING BACK NORTH LATER TODAY...GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WINDS OFF DECK WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS FAIRLY MIXED AND
PREDOMINATELY GUSTY...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING.
WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL KS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE MAXIMUM HEATING OVER CENTRAL KS DUE TO LIMITED
MIXING...ALTHOUGH STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...WITH
MID-UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER MIXING.
THESE READINGS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT JUST SHORT
OF RECORD HIGHS (RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE IN THE LOW 80S).
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
MONDAY DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THINKING THEY SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-LATE
MORNING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE CLOUDS TO AFFECT SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS ON
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CONUS...SURGING A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING...ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS
OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY ANY MEANS DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. ENDED UP INCREASING
POPS INTO THE 30-40% REALM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A PACIFIC
AIRMASS SETTLES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND.
DESPITE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS WARMING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS THE MENTIONED MODELS DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. SO...ONCE THE MONDAY SYSTEM
PASSES...BREEZY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES)
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN.
ADK
FIRE WEATHER... GIVEN OBSERVED AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY INFERRED
GRASSLAND CURING VALUES...DECIDED YESTERDAY TO INCREASE CURING
VALUES BY 5-10% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...INCREASING CURING VALUES
INTO THE 80-95% RANGE. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX FROM HERE ON OUT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY DUE TO ANTICIPATED STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANTICIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 15-30 DAYS CURING VALUES WILL BE INCREASED TO 100%
ALL AREAS...AS WINTER SETS IN.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 75 53 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 75 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 76 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 77 55 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 73 48 72 44 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 74 50 72 46 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 73 52 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 74 53 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 77 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 76 54 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 76 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 77 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 071141
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF WITH TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. WINDS AT TOP AND MHK IN THE RIVER VALLEY ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH FOE SOUTH NEAR 7 KTS. BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MHK SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING. WINDS AT FOE AND TOP WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH LESS THAN 10 KTS
AS THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. INSERTED SOME BR AT MHK TOWARD SUNRISE.
53
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR DATA AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL
UPSTREAM FEATURES OF NOTE. LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WITH BROAD AND SOMEWHAT FAST UPPER JET FROM
35N TO 45N OVER THE PACIFIC. APPEARS ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS
APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON COAST AT 08Z. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE BAJA REGION...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROF WAS AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVED ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA. A MODIFIED PACIFIC FRONT WITH
NEARLY VERTICAL CONTINUITY UP TO 850MB WITH THE LATTER WAVE WAS
LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AT
0Z...WITH RECENT PROFILER...RADAR VWP...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
PUTTING IT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 08Z.
ALTERATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE WAVE TO THE NORTH CONTINUING TO
PUSH EAST WILL STALL THE WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR INTERSTATE 70
TODAY...PROVIDING MUCH WEAKER WINDS THAN FRIDAY BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND SHOULD BE SAFE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 925MB TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS
NORTH...AND MODELS AGAIN SHOWING POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS MOVING IN LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WITH SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
SOLD ON WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. ANY CLOUD SHOULD BE RATHER
SHALLOW AND MIX OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING AND GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE PROVIDING
ANOTHER SIMILARLY WARM DAY EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD.
DESPITE THE MUDDLED AFOREMENTIONED FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST...THE
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN THE PAC NW WAVE DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THOUGH THE BAJA WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH DECENT MID
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME COUPLING OF EXITING UPPER JET TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WESTERN JET MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION TO RESULT MAINLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRETCHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER...AND THUNDER
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE LOW. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE MUCH
CLOSER TO MID NOVEMBER NORMALS.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 071125
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
223 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW MUCH TO COOL MAXES OFF THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THAT MID/UPPER RIDGE
THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA HAS BEEN FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST. FAST
WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS OF 06Z COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN WYOMING
AND THROUGH MOST OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE STRONG JET SEGMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT MID
LEVELS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN. AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS
HAVING A REALLY BAD TIME IN DEPICTING SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THEY ALSO APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT. OVERALL THE ECMWF DID THE BEST. THE UKMET AND ECMWF
ARE HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD THE BEST. CONSIDERING
WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING...WILL BE BASING THIS FORECAST MOSTLY
ON THE ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF THE UPPER JET STARTS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES AWAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON. OTHERWISE MAIN JET AXIS
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. NOT SURE HOW COOLING WILL RECEIVE
TODAY. SERIES OF PREFRONTAL TROUGHS IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. MAIN
COOLING INITIALLY MAY BE JUST BECAUSE OF THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION. MSAS 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
MOST OF THE BIGGER PRESSURE RISES ARE STAYING WELL NORTH AND ARE
MOVING MORE WEST TO EAST. ALSO FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RATHER STRONG
FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL SERVE ENHANCE THE LEE TROUGH.
SO A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT/MAIN COOLING LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO
GO. EVEN DESPITE THAT...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS WARM. INTERESTING
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WHATEVER BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY...
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN SURGES BACK SOUTH LATE IN
THE NIGHT. DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF.
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVE
THROUGH UNTIL 18Z AND AFTER. THERE IS INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE A
LOT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THICKEST IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLED
OFF THE NORTHWEST HALF AND WARMED UP THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. TENDED
TO STAY BELOW GUIDANCE WHICH WAS THE 2 METER.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE NAM AND UKMET ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
INCOMING TROUGH AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN JET AXIS MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UKMET FURTHEST SOUTH. THE GFS IS
MORE LIKE THOSE TWO MODELS BUT IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE ECMWF
FURTHEST NORTH. THE NAM PUTS AREA IN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT WITH
POSSIBLE COUPLED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET. THE GFS HAS
THE AREA IN A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THIS SAME TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE
AREA IN A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET...WHICH IS NOT TOO STRONG...
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF KEEP THE
MAIN JET LIFT WELL NORTH. CONSIDERING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
LIKE THE FLATTER FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AT MID LEVELS AND CONSIDERING THE
FLOW ALOFT...WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS WILL GET RUNG OUT BY THE
MOUNTAINS. ALSO A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS/FRONTS AND RESULTING
SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD CONFIRM WHAT REALITY IS NOW
INDICATING. SO REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY...AND ADDED SPRINKLES. THE BEST LIFT...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
AND QPF FAVOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AND CONFIGURED THE
POPS THAT WAY. IF CANADIAN VERIFIES WILL RECEIVE NO PRECIPITATION.
NO MATTER HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS...LOOK TO HAVE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MAXES FROM NEAR 50 TO MAYBE 55
LOOK TO BE REASONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST HALF. THAT SUPPORTS GOING TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.
NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THANKS TO ALL FOR
COLLABORATION
BULLER
&&
.AVIATION...
406 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAF...LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE. VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD. VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER 08Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.
FOLTZ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 070949
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
349 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS PUSHED A
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CUT OFF THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS TODAY.
AN AREA OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVER NM/AZ SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR FCST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY, HELPING TO DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IS ADVERTISED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT FROM DDC SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN VICINITY
OF THE FRONT.
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND 15KT SOUTH WINDS FROM DDC EAST OUGHT TO KEEP
MINS HIGHER TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AND WEAKER SOUTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
COOLER MINS OUT WEST.
DAYS 3-7...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE EXTEND PERIODS THIS MORNING. A COOL
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CNTL PLAINS EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION SOME MID LVL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
AN UPPER LVL S/W TROF AS IT CROSSES KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTS THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN WILL BE OVER OUR ERN CWA BUT AM RELUCTANT JUST YET TO REMOVE
ALL MENTION OF POPS IN THE WEST.
AFTER THIS COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY 85H TEMP TREND STILL SUGGEST
A BRIEF WARMUP MID WEEK BUT ANOTHER FROPA LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE 60S AND BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S
LATE WEEK.
&&
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH
AND THEN BACK NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TODAY. AS IT MOVES BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR THE LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. AVERAGE WIND SPEED
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 77 51 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 76 47 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 77 46 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 78 50 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 74 51 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 78 55 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN24/18
000
FXUS63 KGLD 070923
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
223 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HOW MUCH TO COOL MAXES OFF THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING THAT MID/UPPER RIDGE
THAT WAS OVER OUR AREA HAS BEEN FLATTENED AND PUSHED EAST. FAST
WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS OF 06Z COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN WYOMING
AND THROUGH MOST OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON THE STRONG JET SEGMENT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT MID
LEVELS...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN. AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS
HAVING A REALLY BAD TIME IN DEPICTING SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THEY ALSO APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH
WITH THE FRONT. OVERALL THE ECMWF DID THE BEST. THE UKMET AND ECMWF
ARE HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELD THE BEST. CONSIDERING
WHAT THE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING...WILL BE BASING THIS FORECAST MOSTLY
ON THE ECMWF.
TODAY/TONIGHT...A WEAK PIECE OF THE UPPER JET STARTS OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES AWAY.
THIS MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS EARLY ON. OTHERWISE MAIN JET AXIS
REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. NOT SURE HOW COOLING WILL RECEIVE
TODAY. SERIES OF PREFRONTAL TROUGHS IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. MAIN
COOLING INITIALLY MAY BE JUST BECAUSE OF THE UNFAVORABLE SURFACE
WIND DIRECTION. MSAS 3 HOUR PRESSURE CHANGE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
MOST OF THE BIGGER PRESSURE RISES ARE STAYING WELL NORTH AND ARE
MOVING MORE WEST TO EAST. ALSO FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RATHER STRONG
FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL SERVE ENHANCE THE LEE TROUGH.
SO A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT/MAIN COOLING LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO
GO. EVEN DESPITE THAT...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS WARM. INTERESTING
LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WHATEVER BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TODAY...
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH INITIALLY AND THEN SURGES BACK SOUTH LATE IN
THE NIGHT. DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD KEEP WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF.
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE THE FRONT MOVE
THROUGH UNTIL 18Z AND AFTER. THERE IS INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE A
LOT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THICKEST IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLED
OFF THE NORTHWEST HALF AND WARMED UP THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. TENDED
TO STAY BELOW GUIDANCE WHICH WAS THE 2 METER.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE NAM AND UKMET ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
INCOMING TROUGH AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN JET AXIS MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE UKMET FURTHEST SOUTH. THE GFS IS
MORE LIKE THOSE TWO MODELS BUT IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE ECMWF
FURTHEST NORTH. THE NAM PUTS AREA IN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT WITH
POSSIBLE COUPLED RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE NORTHERN JET. THE GFS HAS
THE AREA IN A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THIS SAME TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE
AREA IN A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE JET...WHICH IS NOT TOO STRONG...
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF KEEP THE
MAIN JET LIFT WELL NORTH. CONSIDERING THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT
LIKE THE FLATTER FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM AT MID LEVELS AND CONSIDERING THE
FLOW ALOFT...WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS WILL GET RUNG OUT BY THE
MOUNTAINS. ALSO A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS/FRONTS AND RESULTING
SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. FORECAST POINT SOUNDINGS WOULD CONFIRM WHAT REALITY IS NOW
INDICATING. SO REDUCED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY...AND ADDED SPRINKLES. THE BEST LIFT...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
AND QPF FAVOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...AND CONFIGURED THE
POPS THAT WAY. IF CANADIAN VERIFIES WILL RECEIVE NO PRECIPITATION.
NO MATTER HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS...LOOK TO HAVE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MAXES FROM NEAR 50 TO MAYBE 55
LOOK TO BE REASONABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST HALF. THAT SUPPORTS GOING TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE.
NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THANKS TO ALL FOR
COLLABORATION
BULLER
&&
.AVIATION...
1034 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 20Z
SATURDAY BUT WILL GENERA LY REMAIN AOB 15KTS.
FOLTZ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 070919
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
319 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR DATA AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL
UPSTREAM FEATURES OF NOTE. LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OFF THE NORTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...WITH BROAD AND SOMEWHAT FAST UPPER JET FROM
35N TO 45N OVER THE PACIFIC. APPEARS ONE WAVE IN THIS FLOW WAS
APPROACHING THE WASHINGTON COAST AT 08Z. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE BAJA REGION...WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROF WAS AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVED ALONG THE
SASKATCHEWAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA. A MODIFIED PACIFIC FRONT WITH
NEARLY VERTICAL CONTINUITY UP TO 850MB WITH THE LATTER WAVE WAS
LOCATED FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AT
0Z...WITH RECENT PROFILER...RADAR VWP...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
PUTTING IT FROM NORTH CENTRAL IOWA TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 08Z.
ALTERATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE WAVE TO THE NORTH CONTINUING TO
PUSH EAST WILL STALL THE WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR INTERSTATE 70
TODAY...PROVIDING MUCH WEAKER WINDS THAN FRIDAY BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...AGAIN SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND SHOULD BE SAFE. SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AROUND 925MB TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY RETREATS
NORTH...AND MODELS AGAIN SHOWING POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS MOVING IN LATE
IN THE NIGHT. WITH SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT
SOLD ON WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. ANY CLOUD SHOULD BE RATHER
SHALLOW AND MIX OUT QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING AND GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE PROVIDING
ANOTHER SIMILARLY WARM DAY EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD.
DESPITE THE MUDDLED AFOREMENTIONED FLOW OFF THE WEST COAST...THE
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR IN THE PAC NW WAVE DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THOUGH THE BAJA WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH DECENT MID
LAYER FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME COUPLING OF EXITING UPPER JET TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WESTERN JET MOVING IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION TO RESULT MAINLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRETCHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER...AND THUNDER
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE LOW. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE MUCH
CLOSER TO MID NOVEMBER NORMALS.
65
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG SWLY LLVL JET IN THE VCNTY OF KTOP/KFOE WARRANTS KEEPING LLWS
IN THESE SITES FOR ANOTHER 3 HOURS BEFORE THE JET VEERS THEN
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WEAK SFC BOUDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
BETWEEN SITES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY BACKING LIGHT
WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
63
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 070906
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING.
WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL KS TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
PRECLUDE MAXIMUM HEATING OVER CENTRAL KS DUE TO LIMITED
MIXING...ALTHOUGH STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S...WITH
MID-UPPER 70S OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO BETTER MIXING.
THESE READINGS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT JUST SHORT
OF RECORD HIGHS (RECORDS FOR TODAY ARE IN THE LOW 80S).
WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
MONDAY DISTURBANCE...SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. THINKING THEY SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID-LATE
MORNING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING THE CLOUDS TO AFFECT SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE
MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S.
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS ON
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
CONUS...SURGING A PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
PROGRESS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY-MONDAY
EVENING...ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AND AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS
OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BY ANY MEANS DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. ENDED UP INCREASING
POPS INTO THE 30-40% REALM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO MORE NORMAL
READINGS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A PACIFIC
AIRMASS SETTLES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND.
DESPITE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS
ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS WARMING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM MID-LATE NEXT
WEEK...AS THE MENTIONED MODELS DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. SO...ONCE THE MONDAY SYSTEM
PASSES...BREEZY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES)
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ALL 5 TERMINALS TO REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 07/06Z TAF
CYCLE WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO VERY HIGH CIRROSTRATUS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE SE ACROSS CNTRL KS EARLY SAT MORNING WITH
THE BOUNDARY STALLING IN A W-E MANNER THROUGH CNTRL KS SAT
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS DRY...AS SUCH NO MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT WILL
SIGNAL THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL AT KRSL...KSLN & KHUT.
EPS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GIVEN OBSERVED AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY INFERRED GRASSLAND CURING
VALUES...DECIDED YESTERDAY TO INCREASE CURING VALUES BY 5-10% ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...INCREASING CURING VALUES INTO THE 80-95% RANGE.
THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX FROM
HERE ON OUT...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO
ANTICIPATED STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANTICIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
15-30 DAYS CURING VALUES WILL BE INCREASED TO 100% ALL AREAS...AS
WINTER SETS IN.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 76 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
HUTCHINSON 75 53 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
NEWTON 75 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
ELDORADO 76 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 77 55 75 54 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELL 73 48 72 44 / 0 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 74 50 72 46 / 0 0 0 10
SALINA 73 52 72 50 / 0 0 0 10
MCPHERSON 74 53 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
COFFEYVILLE 77 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
CHANUTE 76 54 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
IOLA 76 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 10
PARSONS-KPPF 77 55 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 070547
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ALL 5 TERMINALS TO REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 07/06Z TAF
CYCLE WITH CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO VERY HIGH CIRROSTRATUS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL VENTURE SE ACROSS CNTRL KS EARLY SAT MORNING WITH
THE BOUNDARY STALLING IN A W-E MANNER THROUGH CNTRL KS SAT
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS DRY...AS SUCH NO MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT WILL
SIGNAL THE FRONT`S ARRIVAL AT KRSL...KSLN & KHUT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON MON-MON NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
BROAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER MUCH MORE COMPACT PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN ADDITION ANOTHER SMALL
UPPER WAVE IS APPROACHING BAJA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS SOME WEAK
LEE TROUGHING IN PLACE SETTING UP SOME DOWNSLOPE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.
TONIGHT-SUN:
THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE NW CONUS WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH SAT
GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. WHILE HIGHS ON SAT AND SUN MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S WHICH
IS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MON-TUE:
ALL MODELS AGREE ON SLIDING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO START ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. AT THE SAME TIME
SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT MON INTO
MON NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE. THEREFORE WILL
JUST KEEP 20-30 POPS IN WITH THE THINKING MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE ISO-SCT IN NATURE. THE AIRMASS THAT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A PACIFIC AIRMASS THAT WILL ALLOW FAIRLY MILD TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE.
WED-FRI:
THROUGH THESE PERIODS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS BY WED EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH OFF OF THE WEST
COAST AND WILL KEEP BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. ONE OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPS
UP QUITE A BIT FOR WED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE TEMPS ARE
INCREASED EVEN FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL FORECASTS. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
JUNCTURE TO INSERT PRECIP CHANCES.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 48 74 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 51 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 52 74 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 52 76 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 43 74 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 43 75 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 47 73 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 48 73 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 53 73 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 52 72 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 54 75 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 070540 AAB
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1140 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG SWLY LLVL JET IN THE VCNTY OF KTOP/KFOE WARRANTS KEEPING
LLWS IN THESE SITES FOR ANOTHER 3 HOURS BEFORE THE JET VEERS THEN
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH ONLY A FEW
CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED AS WEAK SFC BOUDARY BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY BETWEEN SITES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY
BACKING LIGHT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE MONDAY.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MISSOURI VALLEY...A
SMALL CUTOFF LOW OFF OF THE BAJA COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE SOUTHERN HIGH PRESSURE HAS
EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED ANY SORT OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN THIS
WEEK...AND WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT HAS ONLY BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS TODAY.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIE DOWN...AND WHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL ABATE TOMORROW...THE WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ONCE
AGAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO LOW IN BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THIS TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE APPEARS SUPERIOR AND HAVE GONE EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE TROUGH OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND CREATE SOME LEE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...
LEADING TO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING...AND THUS WARM
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO OPEN UP THE
GULF JUST A BIT AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN BACK TO THE
PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER TRAILING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE USED TO DETERMINE THE APPROXIMATE TIME THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BOTH ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. A RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT
TO THE FORECAST WAS MADE FOR WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE AREA WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND IF THE PUSH OF WARMER AIR BECOMES STRONGER...THEN
WE MAY SEE SOME TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS...AND HAVE THUS LEFT THE ONGOING FORECAST
ALONE.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
63
000
FXUS63 KGLD 070536
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1036 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
211 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES WEAK RIDGING OVER THE TRI-STATE
REGION WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A CLOSED
LOW JUST WEST OF BAJA. CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST REVOLVE
AROUND A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE SHORT TERM AND UPPER LOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...IMPACTING TEMPERATURES AND BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
ZONAL FLOW BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
MOVE ACROSS THE FA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE TEMPS DOWN A TAD BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
AN OPEN H5 LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS TX/OK ON MONDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND LIFT WILL INCREASE EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ONLY CONCERN WITH THIS IS THAT
THE LOWER LEVELS APPEAR TO STAY QUITE DRY AND MAY IMPACT THE CHANCE
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP. WILL END
SHARPLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LIFT QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AFTERWORDS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD A PAC NW LOW SITS JUST WEST OF THE REGION & BRINGS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
KJ
&&
.AVIATION...
1034 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 20Z
SATURDAY BUT WILL GENERA LY REMAIN AOB 15KTS.
FOLTZ
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 070021 AAA
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
621 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 00 UTC TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH THE LLVL JET
INCREASING TO 40-50KTS THIS EVENING...CONTINUED TO MENTION LLWS
THROUGH 1500-2000FT UNTIL THE JET WEAKENS IN THE 06-09Z TIMEFRAME WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE WINDS THROUGH THE FCST
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH KMHK LATE TONIGHT
THEN WASHES OUT BY LATE SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALL AREAS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST. ONLY A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/08.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE MONDAY.
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES
WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MISSOURI VALLEY...A
SMALL CUTOFF LOW OFF OF THE BAJA COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THE SOUTHERN HIGH PRESSURE HAS
EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED ANY SORT OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN THIS
WEEK...AND WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...IT HAS ONLY BEEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE PLAINS TODAY.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIE DOWN...AND WHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL ABATE TOMORROW...THE WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S ONCE
AGAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO LOW IN BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND THIS TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE. NAM/MET
GUIDANCE APPEARS SUPERIOR AND HAVE GONE EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE THAT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE TROUGH OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND CREATE SOME LEE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE ANOTHER INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...
LEADING TO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MIXING...AND THUS WARM
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO OPEN UP THE
GULF JUST A BIT AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE RETURN BACK TO THE
PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER TRAILING
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CAUSE LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE USED TO DETERMINE THE APPROXIMATE TIME THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. BOTH ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. A RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT
TO THE FORECAST WAS MADE FOR WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
THE AREA WILL ALLOW WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE MID 60S FOR
WEDNESDAY...AND IF THE PUSH OF WARMER AIR BECOMES STRONGER...THEN
WE MAY SEE SOME TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN
NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS...AND HAVE THUS LEFT THE ONGOING FORECAST
ALONE.
JL
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
63
000
FXUS63 KICT 062315
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
515 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24HRS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AROUND
DAYBREAK AND STALL OUT...WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH
THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY.
JAKUB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON MON-MON NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS:
BROAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER MUCH MORE COMPACT PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN ADDITION ANOTHER SMALL
UPPER WAVE IS APPROACHING BAJA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS SOME WEAK
LEE TROUGHING IN PLACE SETTING UP SOME DOWNSLOPE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.
TONIGHT-SUN:
THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE NW CONUS WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH SAT
GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. WHILE HIGHS ON SAT AND SUN MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN TODAY...THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 70S WHICH
IS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MON-TUE:
ALL MODELS AGREE ON SLIDING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO START ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH. AT THE SAME TIME
SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT MON INTO
MON NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE. THEREFORE WILL
JUST KEEP 20-30 POPS IN WITH THE THINKING MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE ISO-SCT IN NATURE. THE AIRMASS THAT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE A PACIFIC AIRMASS THAT WILL ALLOW FAIRLY MILD TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE.
WED-FRI:
THROUGH THESE PERIODS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST CONUS BY WED EVENING. AT THE SAME
TIME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH OFF OF THE WEST
COAST AND WILL KEEP BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. ONE OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO BUMP TEMPS
UP QUITE A BIT FOR WED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE TEMPS ARE
INCREASED EVEN FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL FORECASTS. THERE IS SOME
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO WORK SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
JUNCTURE TO INSERT PRECIP CHANCES.
LAWSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 51 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
HUTCHINSON 48 74 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
NEWTON 51 74 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
ELDORADO 52 74 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 52 76 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELL 43 74 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
GREAT BEND 43 75 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
SALINA 47 73 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCPHERSON 48 73 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 54 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
CHANUTE 53 73 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
IOLA 52 72 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 54 75 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
| 
