[top]
000
FXUS63 KGLD 230005
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO IDAHO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN KANSAS BY
12Z TUESDAY AND IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE
DIVES OUT OF CANADA DEEPENING THE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WILL NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHERE COMBINATION OF 850-500 RH COINCIDES WITH FAVORABLE
AREA OF THE UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED BY MANY
OF THE MODELS. GFS QPF SEEMED TO LATCH ON TO THIS PRETTY WELL. AS
THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST MONDAY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW TIL 18Z MONDAY THEN AS TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40
CHANGEOVER TO MOSTLY RAIN. COULD HAVE A MIX OR TRANSITION ALL OVER
TO SNOW AS COOLING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVE IN...NAM
3 HOURLY TEMPS WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A SNOW PRECIP TYPE VS
LIQUID...SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO...HIGHEST FROM
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST/NORTHEAST. REST OF THE PERIOD
DRY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE 40S...WARMEST EAST. FOR TUESDAY VERY
SIMILAR TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. ON WEDNESDAY JUST A BIT
WARMER UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY TODAYS MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH 55 TO 60 BY FRIDAY. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ADVERTISE A TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S SATURDAY...40S ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CONFIDENCE LOW IN ANY ONE SCENARIO.
CANT RULE OUT SOME PRECIP SUNDAY...FOR NOW WILL KEEP SILENT POPS
TIL SOME TYPE OF AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
441 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TRICKY SET OF TAFS FOR BOTH SITES. AS LAST NIGHT...THE
INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS AND FOG GO...AND THEN
HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS GO. THE RUC OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS
HAS DONE THE BEST JOB WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. BASED ON THAT AND
SINCE THE STRATUS/FOG IS NOT THAT FAR EAST AT THIS TIME WITH THE WINDS
ALREADY SHIFTING BACK TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...FOG/STRATUS WILL PUSH
BACK TO KMCK NEAR 03Z AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL FRONT AND LIFT FROM
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL START MVFR/NEAR MVFR AND DROP TO IFR OR LOWER
BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND 15Z. NEAR THIS TIME AT BOTH SITES...
FRONT/PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO MOVE IN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AT KGLD WITH EVEN STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE THAN WHAT IS IN THERE.
SOME PRECIPITATION NEAR KGLD BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THERE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT KMCK WITH
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES APPROACHING MVFR AT THIS TIME. ONCE IT GETS
CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO
BE INTRODUCED WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
BULLER
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KICT 222345
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER
THE AREA FOR TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND COULD EXPAND INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE AND
LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY.
JAKUB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...CENTERED NEAR
PRATT. THE LOW IS MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WINDS AT KGBD JUST CHANGING TO NORTH AT 21Z.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.
THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE STEADILY APPROACHED THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS ON MONDAY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION...TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
CLEAR QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE UPPER LOW EAST MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH HPC FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
SUNNY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
SCHRECK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 41 61 35 52 / 10 10 30 10
HUTCHINSON 38 58 32 49 / 10 20 30 10
NEWTON 40 60 34 48 / 10 20 30 10
ELDORADO 39 61 36 49 / 10 10 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 42 63 38 52 / 10 10 40 10
RUSSELL 35 52 28 47 / 10 20 20 10
GREAT BEND 35 54 28 48 / 10 20 20 10
SALINA 39 55 31 47 / 10 20 30 20
MCPHERSON 40 57 32 49 / 10 20 30 10
COFFEYVILLE 46 63 42 51 / 10 10 40 10
CHANUTE 45 62 41 48 / 10 10 50 10
IOLA 45 62 40 46 / 10 10 50 20
PARSONS-KPPF 45 63 42 49 / 10 10 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KTOP 222326
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
526 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 0Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CTRL KS ATTM
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD MHK. UPPER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THIS
AREA ACROSS THE CWA IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD STILL GET
SOME REDUCED VISBYS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE AS WE DECOUPLE WITH
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRATUS/BR DEVELOP. BEYOND THE MORNING HOURS
MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CLOUDS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT THINK
THAT THIS MAY SCATTER OUT TOWARDS AFTERNOON. WILL ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)...
A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCT SPRINKLES
THROUGH 600 PM. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
THE 200 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WEAK SFC LOW EAST OF DDC WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS...JUST EAST
OF HLC. THE FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO WESTERN
MN.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC FRONT MAY SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. WEST OF THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA. AS THE 5H TROUGH DIGS AND AMPLIFIES INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH. THE RESULTING
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN STRATO CU AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SFC FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR HIGHER POP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWER TO MID
40S...THOUGH IF THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...THEN LOWS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES MAY DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON MONDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IF SOME AREAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS RECEIVE MORE INSOLATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN HIGHS MAY BE IN THE MID 60S.
GARGAN
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CUT OFF OVER SW NEBRASKA BY 00 UTC
TUESDAY WITH SOME WARM SECTOR PRECIP LIKELY OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT UNDER FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MODERATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL EVEN BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT
WHICH MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP. AT
LEAST SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE SCATTERING OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE JUST A BIT BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF BEING A BIT FASTER WITH THE
CLOSED LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT THAN THE MOST RECENT NAM RUNS.
AT THIS TIME...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RENDITION OF THE GFS WAS
PREFERRED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT TEMP PROFILES MAY BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE WEST AT TIMES. DYNAMIC LIFT
WILL BE RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM BUT THE QUALITY OF
DEEP MOISTURE FIELDS IS STILL A BIT OF AN UNKNOWN. REGARDLESS...DO
FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH BEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE
MOST RECENT NAM RUN HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS NAM FORECAST
WERE TO VERIFY...WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW MIXING IN.
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
DROP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH A SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT AS ANY
MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET SCOURED OUT PRETTY WELL BY THE FIRST SYSTEM.
THE COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE LONG WAVE RIDGING
BUILD BACK IN WITH A WARMING TREND AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT
START TO NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE AT
THAT TIME...BUT CAN AGREE THAT ANOTHER CHUNK OF ENERGY MAY BE
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE PLAINS BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BARJENBRUCH
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 222136
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
336 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
A SURFACE LOW IS SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...CENTERED NEAR
PRATT. THE LOW IS MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WINDS AT KGBD JUST CHANGING TO NORTH AT 21Z.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO
THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.
THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE STEADILY APPROACHED THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH
THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS ON MONDAY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EXPAND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION...TO BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GOING TO BE GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
CLEAR QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH
THE RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT STILL DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS
AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING THE UPPER LOW EAST MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH HPC FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. LOOKS LIKE A DRY AND
SUNNY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
SCHRECK
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONGOING MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG/W OF INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
NOT MUCH OF A SCOURING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING ON THE
EDGES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BUT RISE TO MVFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE SOME PROGRESS TO THE EAST. SFC TROF AXIS
OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN/STALL THRU TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...LIKELY LEADING TO
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF IFR STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROF AXIS
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLED. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY AFFECT THE KICT/KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS A LITTLE LOWER NEAR KCNU...WHERE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MON...BUT IFR STRATUS WILL STAY TO THE WEST
OF THIS SITE.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 41 61 35 52 / 10 10 30 10
HUTCHINSON 38 58 32 49 / 10 20 30 10
NEWTON 40 60 34 48 / 10 20 30 10
ELDORADO 39 61 36 49 / 10 10 40 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 42 63 38 52 / 10 10 40 10
RUSSELL 35 52 28 47 / 10 20 20 10
GREAT BEND 35 54 28 48 / 10 20 20 10
SALINA 39 55 31 47 / 10 20 30 20
MCPHERSON 40 57 32 49 / 10 20 30 10
COFFEYVILLE 46 63 42 51 / 10 10 40 10
CHANUTE 45 62 41 48 / 10 10 50 10
IOLA 45 62 40 46 / 10 10 50 20
PARSONS-KPPF 45 63 42 49 / 10 10 40 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 222120
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
320 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)...
A MINOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LIFTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED TO SCT SPRINKLES
THROUGH 600 PM. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
THE 200 PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A WEAK SFC LOW EAST OF DDC WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS...JUST EAST
OF HLC. THE FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NE INTO WESTERN
MN.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC FRONT MAY SLOWLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. WEST OF THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE CWA. AS THE 5H TROUGH DIGS AND AMPLIFIES INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH. THE RESULTING
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN STRATO CU AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SFC FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE EXTREME
WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR HIGHER POP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWER TO MID
40S...THOUGH IF THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...THEN LOWS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES MAY DIP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ON MONDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
IF SOME AREAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS RECEIVE MORE INSOLATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN HIGHS MAY BE IN THE MID 60S.
GARGAN
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CUT OFF OVER SW NEBRASKA BY 00 UTC
TUESDAY WITH SOME WARM SECTOR PRECIP LIKELY OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT UNDER FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MODERATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL EVEN BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT
WHICH MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP. AT
LEAST SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE SCATTERING OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE JUST A BIT BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF BEING A BIT FASTER WITH THE
CLOSED LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT THAN THE MOST RECENT NAM RUNS.
AT THIS TIME...A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RENDITION OF THE GFS WAS
PREFERRED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT TEMP PROFILES MAY BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE WEST AT TIMES. DYNAMIC LIFT
WILL BE RELATIVELY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM BUT THE QUALITY OF
DEEP MOISTURE FIELDS IS STILL A BIT OF AN UNKNOWN. REGARDLESS...DO
FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH BEST CHANCES
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE
MOST RECENT NAM RUN HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH. IF THIS NAM FORECAST
WERE TO VERIFY...WOULD SEE SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW MIXING IN.
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEARING BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
DROP IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH A SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT AS ANY
MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET SCOURED OUT PRETTY WELL BY THE FIRST SYSTEM.
THE COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE LONG WAVE RIDGING
BUILD BACK IN WITH A WARMING TREND AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT
START TO NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE AT
THAT TIME...BUT CAN AGREE THAT ANOTHER CHUNK OF ENERGY MAY BE
BRINGING PRECIP TO THE PLAINS BY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.AVIATION...
THE VFR STRATUS OVER KMHK MAY MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT AS THE NARROW MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST...MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS KMHK AFTER 9Z. THE 925MB
WINDS MAY VEER ENOUGH AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL KS...ACROSS KFOE AND KTOP TO PREVENT STRATUS FORMATION.
IF WE SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WE COULD DEVELOP
FOG...BUT WITH SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NIGHT
I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BECOME THAT DENSE...MAY BE 3 TO 5 MILES. I
CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS KFOE AND KTOP AFTER
12Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. I PLACED IN SCT IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KFOE AND KTOP IN CASE IFR STRATUS DEVELOPS.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 222100
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO IDAHO TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY THEN EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN KANSAS BY
12Z TUESDAY AND IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE
DIVES OUT OF CANADA DEEPENING THE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WILL NEED TO ADD SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHERE COMBINATION OF 850-500 RH COINCIDES WITH FAVORABLE
AREA OF THE UPPER JET AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED BY MANY
OF THE MODELS. GFS QPF SEEMED TO LATCH ON TO THIS PRETTY WELL. AS
THE UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST MONDAY AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. PRECIP
TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW TIL 18Z MONDAY THEN AS TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 40
CHANGEOVER TO MOSTLY RAIN. COULD HAVE A MIX OR TRANSITION ALL OVER
TO SNOW AS COOLING AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVE IN...NAM
3 HOURLY TEMPS WOULD FAVOR MORE OF A SNOW PRECIP TYPE VS
LIQUID...SOMETHING TO WATCH. OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO...HIGHEST FROM
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST/NORTHEAST. REST OF THE PERIOD
DRY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE 40S...WARMEST EAST. FOR TUESDAY VERY
SIMILAR TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. ON WEDNESDAY JUST A BIT
WARMER UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY TODAYS MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A SLOW WARMUP THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH 55 TO 60 BY FRIDAY. FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ADVERTISE A TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S SATURDAY...40S ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH CONFIDENCE LOW IN ANY ONE SCENARIO.
CANT RULE OUT SOME PRECIP SUNDAY...FOR NOW WILL KEEP SILENT POPS
TIL SOME TYPE OF AGREEMENT DEVELOPS.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
...
1205 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAF...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN ADVECT OVER KMCK
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. FORECASTED LIFR CEILINGS THERE. THESE CONDITIONS
MAY ALSO MOVE INTO KGLD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS63 KDDC 221932
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
132 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE MONDAY
AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
S/WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST
PUSHING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A +110KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS
NOSING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON STATE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...IS PUSHING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
COLORADO ROCKIES AND EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY
MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION OF COLORADO, NEBRASKA,
AND KANSAS BY 00Z TUESDAY THEN SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LACKING SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT WRAPS UP
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST JUST SOUTH OF THE NEBRASKA
BORDER. HOWEVER SLIGHT THE CHANCES, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON NAM AND GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS, ANY PRECIP MONDAY EVENING WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WITH A POSSIBLE SWITCHOVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT POPS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES.
A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TONIGHT HELPING TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGING FROM
AROUND 5C TO 8C ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OUR NORTH. COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
30S(F) EAST TO THE 20S(F) WEST, LOWS TONIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE 30S(F) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED BY LATE MORNING ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL BE JUST ABOVE 0C ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEAR 8C ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, SHOULD EXPECT HIGHS ONLY INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST WITH 50S(F) THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION TO FILTER INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF THE RECENT
COLD FROPA. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL DROP TO NEAR TO JUST BELOW 0C
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. SHOULD EXPECT LOWS DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) WEST
AND NORTHWEST TO THE 30S(F) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ON TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, EVEN THOUGH
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL BE PRESENT. ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGING FROM AROUND 0C ACROSS EASTERN ZONES TO
NEAR 5C ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. SHOULD EXPECT HIGHS ONLY UP
INTO THE 40S(F) NORTH WITH 50S(F) SOUTH TUESDAY. PLAN TO MAKE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
DAYS 3-7...
FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS WESTERN CONUS MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL INFLUENCE WX ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE UPPER LOW ACROSS
IOWA/ILLINOIS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE PLAINS WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE STILL LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS...WITH ANTICYCLONE INFLUENCING THE SURFACE PATTERN. WEAK
COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL
BECOME OFFSET A BIT BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...AND THUS MAXT WILL NOT
BE OVERLY COOL WITH UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S EXPECTED.
BY THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY ON THE UPPER
PATTERN AMONG THE GFS, THE CANADIAN, AND THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL WITH
RESPECT TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE
STRENGTH/INFLUENCE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
THAT BEING SAID...WHATEVER SOLUTION ONE "BUYS"...THE DIFFERENCE IN
SENSIBLE WX OUTCOME THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WOULD
BE MINIMAL. A DEEPER UPPER LOW AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS WOULD ARGUE
FOR A COOLER DAY THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES EVEN MORE
COMPLICATED...BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...THE WX FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL STILL BE TRANQUIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH DOWNSLOPE
WARM-UP EXPECTED. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES AROUND F132 (00Z SATURDAY). A SLOW EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH
OUT WEST WOULD SUGGEST SATURDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY...AS 00Z ECMWF
AND 12Z CANADIAN WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE WITH ITS SLOWER SOLUTION AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
GOING INTO THE FAR EXTENDED...IT SEEMS RATHER LIKELY THAT A STORM OF
SOME SORTS WILL ENTER THE WESTERN PLAINS (SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PART
OF THE HIGH PLAINS?) AROUND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY (29-30TH). SINCE
THIS IS DAY 7-8...IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO TELL IF A STORM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...BUT IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SMALL CORRIDOR OF IFR CEILING REMAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INCLUDING KDDC TERMINAL AS OF 19Z. THIS SMALL BAND
OF IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM KDDC THROUGH
ROUGHLY 22Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD (THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY)...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KDDC AND KGCK...HOWEVER
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AT KHYS...WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY DROPPING
BACK INTO THE MVFR ZONE AND PERHAPS DOWN TO IFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 53 28 50 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 32 50 27 48 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 30 52 25 52 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 32 55 26 52 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 35 50 28 47 / 0 20 20 10
P28 38 60 33 53 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN32/25/25
000
FXUS63 KGLD 221905
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1205 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
1246 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
H7-H3 DIV Q/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SUGGESTS LIMITED INSOLATION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18-19Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SPRINKLE MAY
BE POSSIBLE, BUT DEEP MOIST PROLONGED SATURATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN AFTER 18-20Z. WILL LIKELY
CARRY A MORNING FG/DZ MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE A
NARROW MOIST TONGUE HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN CONVERGENT ESE
FLOW NE OF SFC LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ESE THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROBUST TROUGH OVER
THE PACNW IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 04-06Z.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM/EC WITH PLACEMENT OF
H5 LOW WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z GEFS KEEPING THE H5 TROUGH NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SUBSIDENT REGIME
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND RAISES CONCERNS FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON MON AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WEIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES,
HOWEVER STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL EXIST IN THE H7-H3 LAYER
LIKELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WITH A NARROW WINDOW MON NIGHT FOR -SN/FLURRIES AS H65 MIXING RATIOS
ARE STEERED INTO THE AREA. LEFT A MENTION OF FLURRIES EARLY TUE TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.
TUE-WED...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ON TUE AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS TREND OF WARMING MAXIMUM VALUES
WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL OR IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA ON WED DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SFC MIXING RATIOS/LOW LVL
TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT TRENDING MAXIMUM VALUES DOWN ON WED.
DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.
MCGUIRE
&&
.AVIATION...
1205 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAF...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL AGAIN ADVECT OVER KMCK
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. FORECASTED LIFR CEILINGS THERE. THESE CONDITIONS
MAY ALSO MOVE INTO KGLD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAFS. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 221747
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1147 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 18 UTC AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE VFR STRATUS OVER KMHK MAY MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT AS THE NARROW MOIST AXIS SHIFTS EAST...MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS KMHK AFTER 9Z. THE 925MB
WINDS MAY VEER ENOUGH AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR NORTHEAST FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL KS...ACROSS KFOE AND KTOP TO PREVENT STRATUS FORMATION.
IF WE SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WE COULD DEVELOP
FOG...BUT WITH SOUTHWEST 925MB WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NIGHT
I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BECOME THAT DENSE...MAY BE 3 TO 5 MILES. I
CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS KFOE AND KTOP AFTER
12Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. I PLACED IN SCT IFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KFOE AND KTOP IN CASE IFR STRATUS DEVELOPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC OBS
SHOW A TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LOW STRATUS REMAINING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CLOSES OFF BY TUES
MORNING. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER DUE TO WEAKENING
FORCING AND NO REAL LIFT TO SPEAK OF. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS BUT DO NOT THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY
LIKELY. QPF FROM THE GFS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z MON ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE
IFFY WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS LAGGING THE UPPER WAVE AND PRECIP ON
THE BACK SIDE...SO NOT SURE WHAT THE 00Z GFS IS KEYING ON HERE. THE
NEXT UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
CUTS OFF. THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY
EVENING AS A VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW AND THE
COLD FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STEEPEN UP
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO PROG SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND SPC/S SWODY2 FOR GENERAL THUNDER...HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA MONDAY
EVENING. THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY IN QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF MEASURABLE SNOW WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN THAT
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD
CLIP NORTHEAST KS WED AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST KS FOR THE ENERGY TO WORK
WITH...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY AND COOL FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
GARGAN
000
FXUS63 KICT 221736
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONGOING MVFR TO IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
ALONG/W OF INTERSTATE 135 CORRIDOR GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
NOT MUCH OF A SCOURING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING ON THE
EDGES. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BUT RISE TO MVFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE SOME PROGRESS TO THE EAST. SFC TROF AXIS
OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS BY THIS EVENING WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN/STALL THRU TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON...LIKELY LEADING TO
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF IFR STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROF AXIS
WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLED. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY AFFECT THE KICT/KRSL/KSLN AND KHUT TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE
IS A LITTLE LOWER NEAR KCNU...WHERE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MON...BUT IFR STRATUS WILL STAY TO THE WEST
OF THIS SITE.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...
STRATUS MOVED BACK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE NEAR KHUT AND KINGMAN. SHORT
TERM MODELS DID AN OKAY JOB WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
DECK. CURRENT RUC AND NAM SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AS THIS STRATUS DECK MOVES ALONG. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME SMALL PATCHES OF DRIZZLE...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE
GRIDS/ZONE....GIVEN ITS ISOLATED NATURE. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS IN CENTRAL KS...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES HAVE
LEAD TO TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS ALREADY BEING REACHED.
KETCHAM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONGOING IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING ALONG/W
OF I-135 CORRIDOR GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT MUCH OF A
SCOURING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING ON THE ERN EDGE. THE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BUT RISE TO MVFR INTO THIS PM ALONG/W
OF HIGHWAY 14. SFC TROF AXIS OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH INTO
CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS BY EVENING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN/STALL THRU
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON AM...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF IFR
STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROF AXIS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLED.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM CNTRL NEBRASKA S/SW ACROSS NW KS TO NE NM AT 3 AM CST. COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE TODAY WITH BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH WRN CORRIDOR OF KICT COUNTRY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEREUPON
THE BOUNDARY WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF KICT CWA
TRAPPED IN A FAIRLY WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT THRU MON AFTERNOON WHEN MID
LVL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER WRN NEBRASKA WILL KICK IT`S ATTENDANT &
STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY MON NGT.
DISCUSSION...
TODAY & TONIGHT:
WITH MOISTURE-LADEN SLY LWR-DECK FLOW PREVAILING SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO INHIBIT THE FOG...IF IT DEVELOPS...FROM BECOMING DENSE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL IS FOR STRATUS TO INCREASE OVER CNTRL & SC KS & PERSIST THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT A WARM START TO TEMPS DICTATES KEEPING INHERITED
MAXES INTACT. WITH A WEAK MOIST SLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG SHOULD INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL KS WHERE
CLOSER TO THE DISSIPATING FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLIGHTS ON "HIGH
BEAM" FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CNTRL KS.
MON-WED:
PER "SYNOPSIS" THE CHANCES FOR SHRA & EMBEDDED TSRA ARE INCREASING MOST
AREAS MON NGT...ESPECIALLY ALONG & E OF I-135. WELL-DEFINED LWR-DECK
MOISTURE AXIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LIFT INDUCED BY THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LVL LOW DICTATES INCREASING POPS TO 30-50% OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ASSIGNED TO SE KS. MON NGT`S MINS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF
SLY FLOW INCREASES PRIOR TO COLD FRONT`S ARRIVAL. WITH THE INTENSIFYING
MID-UPR LOW MOVING SE TOWARD SE NEBRASKA/NE KS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOULD ACCELERATE AS IT SURGES E/SE ACROSS SE KS TUE MORNING. AS SUCH
ANY CHANCES FOR WRAP-AROUND ASSOCIATED RA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NE
CORRIDOR ON TUE. REST OF INHERITED FORECAST KEPT INTACT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 40 61 35 / 10 0 10 30
HUTCHINSON 57 39 58 32 / 10 0 20 30
NEWTON 59 40 60 34 / 10 0 20 30
ELDORADO 60 42 61 36 / 10 0 10 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 42 63 38 / 10 0 10 40
RUSSELL 55 37 52 28 / 10 0 20 10
GREAT BEND 56 37 54 28 / 10 0 20 10
SALINA 57 39 55 31 / 10 0 20 30
MCPHERSON 58 39 57 32 / 10 0 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40
CHANUTE 61 44 62 41 / 10 0 10 50
IOLA 61 43 62 40 / 10 0 10 50
PARSONS-KPPF 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 221622
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1022 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
STRATUS MOVED BACK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS
THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 135...WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE NEAR KHUT AND KINGMAN. SHORT
TERM MODELS DID AN OKAY JOB WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
DECK. CURRENT RUC AND NAM SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL
MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS AS THIS STRATUS DECK MOVES ALONG. COULD ALSO
SEE SOME SMALL PATCHES OF DRIZZLE...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE
GRIDS/ZONE....GIVEN ITS ISOLATED NATURE. WILL ALSO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPS IN CENTRAL KS...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES HAVE
LEAD TO TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS ALREADY BEING REACHED.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONGOING IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING ALONG/W
OF I-135 CORRIDOR GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT MUCH OF A
SCOURING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING ON THE ERN EDGE. THE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BUT RISE TO MVFR INTO THIS PM ALONG/W
OF HIGHWAY 14. SFC TROF AXIS OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH INTO
CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS BY EVENING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN/STALL THRU
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON AM...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF IFR
STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROF AXIS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLED.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM CNTRL NEBRASKA S/SW ACROSS NW KS TO NE NM AT 3 AM CST. COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE TODAY WITH BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH WRN CORRIDOR OF KICT COUNTRY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEREUPON
THE BOUNDARY WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF KICT CWA
TRAPPED IN A FAIRLY WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT THRU MON AFTERNOON WHEN MID
LVL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER WRN NEBRASKA WILL KICK IT`S ATTENDANT &
STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY MON NGT.
DISCUSSION...
TODAY & TONIGHT:
WITH MOISTURE-LADEN SLY LWR-DECK FLOW PREVAILING SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO INHIBIT THE FOG...IF IT DEVELOPS...FROM BECOMING DENSE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL IS FOR STRATUS TO INCREASE OVER CNTRL & SC KS & PERSIST THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT A WARM START TO TEMPS DICTATES KEEPING INHERITED
MAXES INTACT. WITH A WEAK MOIST SLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG SHOULD INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL KS WHERE
CLOSER TO THE DISSIPATING FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLIGHTS ON "HIGH
BEAM" FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CNTRL KS.
MON-WED:
PER "SYNOPSIS" THE CHANCES FOR SHRA & EMBEDDED TSRA ARE INCREASING MOST
AREAS MON NGT...ESPECIALLY ALONG & E OF I-135. WELL-DEFINED LWR-DECK
MOISTURE AXIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LIFT INDUCED BY THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LVL LOW DICTATES INCREASING POPS TO 30-50% OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ASSIGNED TO SE KS. MON NGT`S MINS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF
SLY FLOW INCREASES PRIOR TO COLD FRONT`S ARRIVAL. WITH THE INTENSIFYING
MID-UPR LOW MOVING SE TOWARD SE NEBRASKA/NE KS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOULD ACCELERATE AS IT SURGES E/SE ACROSS SE KS TUE MORNING. AS SUCH
ANY CHANCES FOR WRAP-AROUND ASSOCIATED RA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NE
CORRIDOR ON TUE. REST OF INHERITED FORECAST KEPT INTACT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 40 61 35 / 10 0 10 30
HUTCHINSON 57 39 58 32 / 10 0 20 30
NEWTON 59 40 60 34 / 10 0 20 30
ELDORADO 60 42 61 36 / 10 0 10 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 42 63 38 / 10 0 10 40
RUSSELL 55 37 52 28 / 10 0 20 10
GREAT BEND 56 37 54 28 / 10 0 20 10
SALINA 57 39 55 31 / 10 0 20 30
MCPHERSON 58 39 57 32 / 10 0 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40
CHANUTE 61 44 62 41 / 10 0 10 50
IOLA 61 43 62 40 / 10 0 10 50
PARSONS-KPPF 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 221316
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
716 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST AT TAF SITES. HOWEVER AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
MHK MAY SEE MVFR POTENTIAL BETWEEN 13-15Z PRIOR TO DEEPER MIXING
AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...8KFT CEILINGS HAVE EVOLVED
NEAR TOP/FOE...IN WHICH HEIGHTS MAY LOWER WITH FURTHER MOISTENING
WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS ANTICIPATED AT
TAF SITES BEGINNING BETWEEN 00-03Z.
BLAIR
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC OBS
SHOW A TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LOW STRATUS REMAINING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CLOSES OFF BY TUES
MORNING. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER DUE TO WEAKENING
FORCING AND NO REAL LIFT TO SPEAK OF. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS BUT DO NOT THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY
LIKELY. QPF FROM THE GFS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z MON ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE
IFFY WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS LAGGING THE UPPER WAVE AND PRECIP ON
THE BACK SIDE...SO NOT SURE WHAT THE 00Z GFS IS KEYING ON HERE. THE
NEXT UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
CUTS OFF. THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY
EVENING AS A VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW AND THE
COLD FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STEEPEN UP
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO PROG SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND SPC/S SWODY2 FOR GENERAL THUNDER...HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA MONDAY
EVENING. THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY IN QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF MEASURABLE SNOW WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN THAT
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD
CLIP NORTHEAST KS WED AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST KS FOR THE ENERGY TO WORK
WITH...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY AND COOL FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 221137
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
ONGOING IFR STRATUS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING ALONG/W
OF I-135 CORRIDOR GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT MUCH OF A
SCOURING MECHANISM OTHER THAN DIURNAL HEATING ON THE ERN EDGE. THE
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BUT RISE TO MVFR INTO THIS PM ALONG/W
OF HIGHWAY 14. SFC TROF AXIS OVER WRN KS WILL PUSH INTO
CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS BY EVENING WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN/STALL THRU
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MON AM...LIKELY LEADING TO ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF IFR
STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROF AXIS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL BE DECOUPLED.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM CNTRL NEBRASKA S/SW ACROSS NW KS TO NE NM AT 3 AM CST. COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE TODAY WITH BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH WRN CORRIDOR OF KICT COUNTRY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEREUPON
THE BOUNDARY WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF KICT CWA
TRAPPED IN A FAIRLY WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT THRU MON AFTERNOON WHEN MID
LVL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER WRN NEBRASKA WILL KICK IT`S ATTENDANT &
STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY MON NGT.
DISCUSSION...
TODAY & TONIGHT:
WITH MOISTURE-LADEN SLY LWR-DECK FLOW PREVAILING SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO INHIBIT THE FOG...IF IT DEVELOPS...FROM BECOMING DENSE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL IS FOR STRATUS TO INCREASE OVER CNTRL & SC KS & PERSIST THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT A WARM START TO TEMPS DICTATES KEEPING INHERITED
MAXES INTACT. WITH A WEAK MOIST SLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG SHOULD INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL KS WHERE
CLOSER TO THE DISSIPATING FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLIGHTS ON "HIGH
BEAM" FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CNTRL KS.
MON-WED:
PER "SYNOPSIS" THE CHANCES FOR SHRA & EMBEDDED TSRA ARE INCREASING MOST
AREAS MON NGT...ESPECIALLY ALONG & E OF I-135. WELL-DEFINED LWR-DECK
MOISTURE AXIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LIFT INDUCED BY THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LVL LOW DICTATES INCREASING POPS TO 30-50% OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ASSIGNED TO SE KS. MON NGT`S MINS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF
SLY FLOW INCREASES PRIOR TO COLD FRONT`S ARRIVAL. WITH THE INTENSIFYING
MID-UPR LOW MOVING SE TOWARD SE NEBRASKA/NE KS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOULD ACCELERATE AS IT SURGES E/SE ACROSS SE KS TUE MORNING. AS SUCH
ANY CHANCES FOR WRAP-AROUND ASSOCIATED RA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NE
CORRIDOR ON TUE. REST OF INHERITED FORECAST KEPT INTACT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 40 61 35 / 10 0 10 30
HUTCHINSON 57 39 58 32 / 10 0 20 30
NEWTON 59 40 60 34 / 10 0 20 30
ELDORADO 60 42 61 36 / 10 0 10 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 42 63 38 / 10 0 10 40
RUSSELL 51 37 52 28 / 10 0 20 10
GREAT BEND 52 37 54 28 / 10 0 20 10
SALINA 57 39 55 31 / 10 0 20 30
MCPHERSON 58 39 57 32 / 10 0 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40
CHANUTE 61 44 62 41 / 10 0 10 50
IOLA 61 43 62 40 / 10 0 10 50
PARSONS-KPPF 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 221117
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
415 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
1246 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
H7-H3 DIV Q/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SUGGESTS LIMITED INSOLATION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18-19Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SPRINKLE MAY
BE POSSIBLE, BUT DEEP MOIST PROLONGED SATURATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN AFTER 18-20Z. WILL LIKELY
CARRY A MORNING FG/DZ MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE A
NARROW MOIST TONGUE HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN CONVERGENT ESE
FLOW NE OF SFC LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ESE THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROBUST TROUGH OVER
THE PACNW IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 04-06Z.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM/EC WITH PLACEMENT OF
H5 LOW WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z GEFS KEEPING THE H5 TROUGH NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SUBSIDENT REGIME
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND RAISES CONCERNS FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON MON AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WEIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES,
HOWEVER STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL EXIST IN THE H7-H3 LAYER
LIKELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WITH A NARROW WINDOW MON NIGHT FOR -SN/FLURRIES AS H65 MIXING RATIOS
ARE STEERED INTO THE AREA. LEFT A MENTION OF FLURRIES EARLY TUE TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.
TUE-WED...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ON TUE AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS TREND OF WARMING MAXIMUM VALUES
WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL OR IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA ON WED DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SFC MIXING RATIOS/LOW LVL
TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT TRENDING MAXIMUM VALUES DOWN ON WED.
DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.
MCGUIRE
&&
.AVIATION...
415 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW STRATUS DECK WILL SLOWLY ERODE WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KGLD SHOULD CLEAR OUT RELATIVELY
EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE KMCK WILL NOT CLEAR UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN KMCK.
024
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 220927
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM CNTRL NEBRASKA S/SW ACROSS NW KS TO NE NM AT 3 AM CST. COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE TODAY WITH BOUNDARY NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH WRN CORRIDOR OF KICT COUNTRY UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEREUPON
THE BOUNDARY WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF KICT CWA
TRAPPED IN A FAIRLY WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT THRU MON AFTERNOON WHEN MID
LVL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER WRN NEBRASKA WILL KICK IT`S ATTENDANT &
STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KICT COUNTRY MON NGT.
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY & TONIGHT:
WITH MOISTURE-LADEN SLY LWR-DECK FLOW PREVAILING SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO INHIBIT THE FOG...IF IT DEVELOPS...FROM BECOMING DENSE. THE GREATER
POTENTIAL IS FOR STRATUS TO INCREASE OVER CNTRL & SC KS & PERSIST THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT A WARM START TO TEMPS DICTATES KEEPING INHERITED
MAXES INTACT. WITH A WEAK MOIST SLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG SHOULD INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL KS WHERE
CLOSER TO THE DISSIPATING FRONT. WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLIGHTS ON "HIGH
BEAM" FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN HALF OF CNTRL KS.
MON-WED:
PER "SYNOPSIS" THE CHANCES FOR SHRA & EMBEDDED TSRA ARE INCREASING MOST
AREAS MON NGT...ESPECIALLY ALONG & E OF I-135. WELL-DEFINED LWR-DECK
MOISTURE AXIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING LIFT INDUCED BY THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LVL LOW DICTATES INCREASING POPS TO 30-50% OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ASSIGNED TO SE KS. MON NGT`S MINS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF
SLY FLOW INCREASES PRIOR TO COLD FRONT`S ARRIVAL. WITH THE INTENSIFYING
MID-UPR LOW MOVING SE TOWARD SE NEBRASKA/NE KS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SHOULD ACCELERATE AS IT SURGES E/SE ACROSS SE KS TUE MORNING. AS SUCH
ANY CHANCES FOR WRAP-AROUND ASSOCIATED RA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NE
CORRIDOR ON TUE. REST OF INHERITED FORECAST KEPT INTACT.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...AS A WEAK FRONT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THUS VEERING
THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND SUNSET.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 40 61 35 / 10 0 10 30
HUTCHINSON 57 39 58 32 / 10 0 20 30
NEWTON 59 40 60 34 / 10 0 20 30
ELDORADO 60 42 61 36 / 10 0 10 40
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 42 63 38 / 10 0 10 40
RUSSELL 51 37 52 28 / 10 0 20 10
GREAT BEND 52 37 54 28 / 10 0 20 10
SALINA 57 39 55 31 / 10 0 20 30
MCPHERSON 58 39 57 32 / 10 0 20 30
COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40
CHANUTE 61 44 62 41 / 10 0 10 50
IOLA 61 43 62 40 / 10 0 10 50
PARSONS-KPPF 62 45 63 42 / 10 0 10 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 220922
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
UA ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND HEADING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR ELKHART
AND WAS HEADING OUT INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 08Z. SURFACE WINDS
WERE INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AS A
SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT HEAD INTO KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE
LOW WINDS WERE CONTINUING TO BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN A RETURN OF THE
STRATUS BUT FOG HAS NOT BEEN A PROBLEM DUE TO THE WINDS. WINDS
WILL BE DECREASING AS THE LOW/TROUGH MOVE EAST SO THERE COULD
STILL BE ENOUGH DECOUPLING FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
TO SEE STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA GRADUALLY
ERODING AS THE DAY GOES ON BUT THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES
DOWNWARD IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THAT IN MIND.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BUT SHOULD COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH IN THE WEST AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
ON MONDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS BRING THE
500 MB LOW OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OR FAR NORTHERN KANSAS.
THE UKMET IS THE FLIER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW COMING OUT THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MODELS BRING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER JET
OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT UPPER DYNAMICS
AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA WE COULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN
THIS BUT THE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD.
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY A BIT. MODEL 850
MB WINDS ARE AROUND 30-35 KNOTS BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW DEVELOPING UP THROUGH 700 MB. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS.
DAYS 3-7...
HAVE NOT MADE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST. WE
WILL TRANSITION TO A RIDGE TROF RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE CONUS
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MEAN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL THUS RESIDE OVER THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS WITH A COUPLE OF PV ANOMALIES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WHICH WILL DRAG SFC FRONTS AND REINFORCING COOL AIR THROUGH THE
PLAINS. THE FIRST OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. THE FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER IN
ITS WAKE. THE SECOND COMES LATE WED OR WED NIGHT. THE DEGREE OF
COOLING BEHIND THE MID WEEK FRONT DEPENDS ON THE PREFERRED MODEL. THE
EC DIGS THE TROF FURTHER WEST AND IS THUS MUCH COOLER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT DROP
TEMPS ANY FURTHER ON THU. BY FRI, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN
MOVING EAST AND BY SATURDAY MORNING IT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS LEADS TO A WARMUP GOING INTO NEXT FRI/SAT. THE MODELS
START TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS LATER NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO WK 2 BUT
ALL SHOW THE SAME BASIC PATTERN. WHICH IS TO DIG A TROF INTO THE SW
CONUS. THIS MAY ALLOW A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO BREAK OVER THE TOP
OF THE EAST PAC RIDGE AND DRIVE SOME COLDER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE
PLAINS. BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES YET. NEVERTHELESS, SOME COLDER WEATHER MAY BE ON THE WAY
LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT
&&
AVIATION...
THE LEE SFC TROUGH HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SE COLORADO AND STRETCHES
NE-WARD INTO NW KANSAS. GRADUALLY DECREASING SOUTH FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THE TROF MOVES PAST. THE TIMING OF
THE WIND SHIFT TO NW SHOULD BE AROUND 22/12Z AT KGCK AND BY 22/18Z
AT BOTH KDDC/KHYS. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CIGS TO CONTINUE (MAYBE EVEN SOME
BR) AT KDDC/KHYS UNTIL WINDS SHIFT THEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
HELP PUSH OUT LOW CLOUD. CIGS SHOULD THEN RISE TO AROUND 050 FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. -WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 34 52 29 / 0 0 10 20
GCK 53 30 48 26 / 0 0 10 20
EHA 57 32 51 26 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 56 32 52 28 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 50 33 49 29 / 0 0 20 20
P28 58 38 59 36 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN02/34
000
FXUS63 KTOP 220915
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
315 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC OBS
SHOW A TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LOW STRATUS REMAINING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT CLOSES OFF BY TUES
MORNING. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER DUE TO WEAKENING
FORCING AND NO REAL LIFT TO SPEAK OF. THERE COULD BE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS BUT DO NOT THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP IS VERY
LIKELY. QPF FROM THE GFS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z MON ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE
IFFY WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS LAGGING THE UPPER WAVE AND PRECIP ON
THE BACK SIDE...SO NOT SURE WHAT THE 00Z GFS IS KEYING ON HERE. THE
NEXT UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND
CUTS OFF. THINK THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY
EVENING AS A VORT LOBE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW AND THE
COLD FRONT PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STEEPEN UP
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO PROG SOME WEAK INSTABILITY. WITH
THIS IN MIND AND SPC/S SWODY2 FOR GENERAL THUNDER...HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA MONDAY
EVENING. THE DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY IN QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT.
KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OF MEASURABLE SNOW WITH SFC TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING. UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE CONCERN THAT
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS COULD
CLIP NORTHEAST KS WED AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE OVER NORTHEAST KS FOR THE ENERGY TO WORK
WITH...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY AND COOL FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. TEMPS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
WOLTERS
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC CLOUDS HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...
WHILE ANOTHER PLUME OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS. CLEARING SKIES OVER MOIST AIRMASS AS
SEEN IN EVENING SOUNDING IS BRINGING BR TO THE TAF SITES. AGAIN
THINK WINDS WILL KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG...AND NOW HAVE
CIGS JUST BLOW 020 FOR CTRL KS DECK MOVING THIS WAY. THIS AREA
EXPECTED TO BREAK UP TOWARDS MORNING HOURS AND MAY BE SCT-BKN BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO TOP/FOE. MORNING HOURS BRING VFR CONDITIONS IN SE
WINDS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
NO GROUP ADDED FOR THIS YET. 67
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 220746
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1246 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
1246 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
H7-H3 DIV Q/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SUGGESTS LIMITED INSOLATION
THROUGH AT LEAST 18-19Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A SPRINKLE MAY
BE POSSIBLE, BUT DEEP MOIST PROLONGED SATURATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BEFORE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN AFTER 18-20Z. WILL LIKELY
CARRY A MORNING FG/DZ MENTION ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE A
NARROW MOIST TONGUE HAS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA IN CONVERGENT ESE
FLOW NE OF SFC LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ESE THROUGH LATE
MORNING.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROBUST TROUGH OVER
THE PACNW IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER 04-06Z.
THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN NAM/EC WITH PLACEMENT OF
H5 LOW WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 18Z GEFS KEEPING THE H5 TROUGH NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE SUBSIDENT REGIME
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND RAISES CONCERNS FOR
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON MON AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WEIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES,
HOWEVER STRONG FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL EXIST IN THE H7-H3 LAYER
LIKELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WITH A NARROW WINDOW MON NIGHT FOR -SN/FLURRIES AS H65 MIXING RATIOS
ARE STEERED INTO THE AREA. LEFT A MENTION OF FLURRIES EARLY TUE TO
ACCOUNT FOR A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.
TUE-WED...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
ON TUE AND FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS TREND OF WARMING MAXIMUM VALUES
WITH READINGS NEAR NORMAL OR IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DIG RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA ON WED DRIVING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SFC MIXING RATIOS/LOW LVL
TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT TRENDING MAXIMUM VALUES DOWN ON WED.
DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.
MCGUIRE
&&
.AVIATION...
438 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR KGLD...WHILE IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z JUST EAST OF KMCK AND
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO THE KMCK
TAF. OUTSIDE OF THIS 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME...NO OTHER ISSUES WILL
IMPACT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES.
BLM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 220539
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1039 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 12Z
MONDAY...NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z TUESDAY...NEBRASKA AND
IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE ONLY OUTLIER WITH A
SECONDARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE GLD/DDC FORECAST AREAS BY 00Z
TUESDAY AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO FAVOR ALL BUT THE UKMET SOLUTION.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE STRATUS/FOG/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THIS PRETTY WELL IN HAND AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
GENERAL CHANGES WERE TO SHIFT THE POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THE
EVENT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE LESS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO
EXPECTED...MAINLY EAST OF A MCCOOK TO HILL CITY LINE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE FALLING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE DAY. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. I DID RAISE TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE ADJUSTED TRACK WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND
WARMER 850/2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA AS
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING EXISTS. LOW END WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL LIMIT WARMUP
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE...ALBEIT
FLATTENING FRIDAY MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
1033 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE HOW FAR WEST THE
STRATUS AND FOG GETS. INCOMING MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTORS. FOR THE KGLD TAF...THESE TWO FACTORS LOOK TO
KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR THE KMCK TAF...IT LOOKS LIKE KMCK
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE FOR A LITTLE WHILE. BELIEVE THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL STILL STAY TO THE EAST OF HERE. HOWEVER...STILL
JUST INCLUDED 5 MILES IN FOG AND ONLY A SCT LOW DECK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. AFTER 12Z...DEFINITE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
HERE.
BULLER
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 220532
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1132 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AFFECTING MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS...AS A WEAK FRONT BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA THUS VEERING
THE WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND SUNSET.
JAKUB
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SUNSHINE HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...AND WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TONIGHT:
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WHETHER PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL REDEVELOP. SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW TO HANDLE THIS MOISTURE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS EXTREME
WRN KS MOVES INTO WRN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KS BY EARLY ON SUN. PREFER
TO GO WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS WHICH KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT. SO
WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION...ESPECIALLY FROM 09-14Z/SUN. COULD ALSO
SEE LOW LAYERS SATURATE ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS
EARLY ON SUN...SO WILL KEEP THIS MENTION AS WELL.
KETCHAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TODAY...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE BEST DYNAMICS ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND ECMWF ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S CONSISTENCY OVER SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL
MEAN THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST CHUNK OF COLD AIR COMES SOUTH OVER
THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR
COMING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS. THERE ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO 850MB
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STAY
TUNED...
SCHRECK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 44 57 40 61 / 10 10 0 20
HUTCHINSON 44 56 40 60 / 10 10 10 20
NEWTON 44 55 39 59 / 10 10 10 20
ELDORADO 42 57 38 59 / 10 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 44 58 42 61 / 10 10 0 20
RUSSELL 38 55 33 54 / 10 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 41 54 35 54 / 10 10 0 20
SALINA 41 57 39 58 / 10 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 44 57 40 59 / 10 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 45 63 44 61 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 44 61 42 59 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 220524
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1124 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC CLOUDS HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO
NEBRASKA...WHILE ANOTHER PLUME OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS. CLEARING SKIES OVER
MOIST AIRMASS AS SEEN IN EVENING SOUNDING IS BRINGING BR TO THE
TAF SITES. AGAIN THINK WINDS WILL KEEP IT MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FOG...AND NOW HAVE CIGS JUST BLOW 020 FOR CTRL KS DECK MOVING THIS
WAY. THIS AREA EXPECTED TO BREAK UP TOWARDS MORNING HOURS AND MAY
BE SCT-BKN BY THE TIME IT GETS TO TOP/FOE. MORNING HOURS BRING VFR
CONDITIONS IN SE WINDS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT NO GROUP ADDED FOR THIS YET. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP OVER KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SOME WARM ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND
PRODUCING THE CLOUD COVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.
IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WHILE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY. IT IS NOT THE GREATEST FOG SETUP...BUT WON`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG AND PERHAPS A BIT OF
DRIZZLE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL LIFT DUE TO PVA AND JET DIVERGENCE...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER TO THE NORTH OVER NEBRASKA WHILE KANSAS SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY DRY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND EC DIG THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN IA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE
GFS HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK...DIGGING THE 5H TROUGH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTM...I`M LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM AND EC TRACK...THIS WILL PROVIDE MUCH OF THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. IT MAY GET COLD ENOUGH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST AREA FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALONG WITH THE BETTER TROWAL
FORMATION. I DID NOT PLACE IN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IS
QUICK ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A INCH OR
TWO OF WET SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT.
AS THE 5H TROUGH LIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW-LEVEL
CAA...CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN
KS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINING WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM UP AGAIN AS A DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...MAY
BE A BIT WARMER IS SKIES ARE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 212338
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 12Z
MONDAY...NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z TUESDAY...NEBRASKA AND
IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE ONLY OUTLIER WITH A
SECONDARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE GLD/DDC FORECAST AREAS BY 00Z
TUESDAY AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO FAVOR ALL BUT THE UKMET SOLUTION.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE STRATUS/FOG/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THIS PRETTY WELL IN HAND AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
GENERAL CHANGES WERE TO SHIFT THE POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THE
EVENT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE LESS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO
EXPECTED...MAINLY EAST OF A MCCOOK TO HILL CITY LINE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE FALLING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE DAY. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. I DID RAISE TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE ADJUSTED TRACK WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND
WARMER 850/2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA AS
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING EXISTS. LOW END WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL LIMIT WARMUP
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE...ALBEIT
FLATTENING FRIDAY MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
438 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR KGLD...WHILE IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z JUST EAST OF KMCK AND
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS TO THE KMCK
TAF. OUTSIDE OF THIS 10Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME...NO OTHER ISSUES WILL
IMPACT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES.
BLM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 212336
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
536 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
A NARROW LINE OF LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO HANGOUT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUDS
COULD EXPAND LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
JAKUB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SUNSHINE HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...AND WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TONIGHT:
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WHETHER PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL REDEVELOP. SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW TO HANDLE THIS MOISTURE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS EXTREME
WRN KS MOVES INTO WRN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KS BY EARLY ON SUN. PREFER
TO GO WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS WHICH KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT. SO
WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION...ESPECIALLY FROM 09-14Z/SUN. COULD ALSO
SEE LOW LAYERS SATURATE ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS
EARLY ON SUN...SO WILL KEEP THIS MENTION AS WELL.
KETCHAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TODAY...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE BEST DYNAMICS ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND ECMWF ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S CONSISTENCY OVER SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL
MEAN THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST CHUNK OF COLD AIR COMES SOUTH OVER
THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR
COMING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS. THERE ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO 850MB
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STAY
TUNED...
SCHRECK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 44 57 40 61 / 10 10 0 20
HUTCHINSON 44 56 40 60 / 10 10 10 20
NEWTON 44 55 39 59 / 10 10 10 20
ELDORADO 42 57 38 59 / 10 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 44 58 42 61 / 10 10 0 20
RUSSELL 38 55 33 54 / 10 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 41 54 35 54 / 10 10 0 20
SALINA 41 57 39 58 / 10 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 44 57 40 59 / 10 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 45 63 44 61 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 44 61 42 59 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 212330
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
530 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
TOUGH FORECAST CLOUD/VISBY WISE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AT ALL TAF SITES...AS DOES A STREAM OF CLOUDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST CURRENTLY OVER CTRL KS AND BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO
THE AREA. MODELS AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SOME DECREASING
DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS. HOWEVER ALL MODELS SUGGESTING
SOME KIND OF INVERSION TO DEVELOP AROUND 1500FT. AT THIS TIME
THINK TRAPPING OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS UNDER THIS INVERSION WILL
KEEP MVFR CIGS GOING WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISBY AS TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY FALL. HAVE KEPT SITES CLEARING UP 15Z AND BEYOND. AT THIS
TIME ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TOO MIXED FOR FOG POTENTIAL BUT SATURATED
ENOUGH FOR HAZE. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP OVER KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SOME WARM ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND
PRODUCING THE CLOUD COVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.
IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WHILE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY. IT IS NOT THE GREATEST FOG SETUP...BUT WON`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG AND PERHAPS A BIT OF
DRIZZLE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL LIFT DUE TO PVA AND JET DIVERGENCE...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER TO THE NORTH OVER NEBRASKA WHILE KANSAS SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY DRY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND EC DIG THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN IA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE
GFS HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK...DIGGING THE 5H TROUGH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTM...I`M LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM AND EC TRACK...THIS WILL PROVIDE MUCH OF THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. IT MAY GET COLD ENOUGH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST AREA FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALONG WITH THE BETTER TROWAL
FORMATION. I DID NOT PLACE IN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IS
QUICK ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A INCH OR
TWO OF WET SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT.
AS THE 5H TROUGH LIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW-LEVEL
CAA...CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN
KS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINING WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM UP AGAIN AS A DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...MAY
BE A BIT WARMER IS SKIES ARE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 212120
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY 12Z
MONDAY...NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z TUESDAY...NEBRASKA AND
IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE ONLY OUTLIER WITH A
SECONDARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE GLD/DDC FORECAST AREAS BY 00Z
TUESDAY AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALSO FAVOR ALL BUT THE UKMET SOLUTION.
FIRST ISSUE WILL BE STRATUS/FOG/POSSIBLE DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
THIS PRETTY WELL IN HAND AND JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
GENERAL CHANGES WERE TO SHIFT THE POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING THE
EVENT AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE LESS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO
EXPECTED...MAINLY EAST OF A MCCOOK TO HILL CITY LINE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY BEFORE FALLING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE DAY. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY. I DID RAISE TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE ADJUSTED TRACK WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED AND
WARMER 850/2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA AS
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING EXISTS. LOW END WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MAY BE MET WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL LIMIT WARMUP
WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE...ALBEIT
FLATTENING FRIDAY MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PUSHING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA. SHOULD SEE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
1044 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SOUTH WINDS BROUGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FOG/STRATUS WAS JUST EAST
OF KMCK. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. LATEST
RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT IFR CONDITIONS TO BE EAST OF KMCK. OTHERWISE...
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER KGLD/KMCK. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z WHICH WILL SWITCH SURFACE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT WESTWARD EXTENT
OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG TONIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 212115
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES.
WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL
S/WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A +80KT UPPER LEVEL JET...JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...IS STREAMING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEAR THE
SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING IN
EASTERN COLORADO.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL S/WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUING TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
A FAIRLY DRY FROPA DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
FRONT ITSELF BEING FAIRLY WEAK. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL PUSH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID DAY
MONDAY AND ALONG WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIP. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER BUT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT THE DAY PRIOR. ALTHOUGH,
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH COULD BE A KEY FACTOR. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A CLOSED
OFF LOW DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA RESULTING IN THE
BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION STAYING WELL NORTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
HOWEVER, THE UKMET SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME. AS A RESULT, WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE
CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE MARGINALLY
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THE NAM, GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85 AROUND 5C
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE LOWS IN THE 30S(F)
ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINS WORKING IT`S
WAY INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. FOR SUNDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FROPA
SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 5C
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES TO NEAR 7C ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S(F) ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES WILL QUICKLY, BUT BRIEFLY,
RETURN AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN
PUSHING INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S(F) CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S(F) MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
UPPER 40S(F) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER. PLAN
TO MAKE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.
DAYS 3-7...
QUESTIONS IN THE FORECAST CENTER MAINLY AROUND TEMPERATURES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS EVENT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE DDC FA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (MON NIGHT/TUESDAY). AS IT APPEARS
NOW...SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE DDC FA AS THE BRUNT OF THIS STORM
WILL IMPACT NEBRASKA. AN ARCTIC AIR SOURCE IS NON-EXISTENT WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM...SO WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY...THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OF
NOTICE. DOWNSLOPE MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR QUICKLY TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR (NOT COLD)
INTO KANSAS. AGAIN...FOR WESTERN KANSAS...THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
TO BE MODIFIED BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES THANKSGIVING DAY VS. WEDNESDAY.
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR A SOLID WARM-UP WELL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FRIDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN WARMER THAN THAT SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. IN THE DAY 8-10 TIME
FRAME...UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY IMPACT THE WESTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH WHITE NOISE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE IMPORTANT SUNDAY (29TH) TRAVEL DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
A RETURN TO LIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED IN THE ROUGHLY 10-16Z TIME
FRAME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. DENSE FOG IS ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AT ANY ONE OF THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TAF TERMINALS (KDDC, KGCK, KHYS).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 53 33 52 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 35 55 30 48 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 33 55 30 50 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 35 55 32 52 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 37 53 33 48 / 0 0 0 20
P28 43 57 38 58 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN32/25/25
000
FXUS63 KICT 212111
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
311 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOG AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SOME SUNSHINE HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE MIDDLE 50S. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...AND WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TONIGHT:
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WHETHER PATCHY FOG
AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL REDEVELOP. SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW TO HANDLE THIS MOISTURE AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF ACROSS EXTREME
WRN KS MOVES INTO WRN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL KS BY EARLY ON SUN. PREFER
TO GO WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS WHICH KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN SOME OVERNIGHT. SO
WILL INCLUDE THIS MENTION...ESPECIALLY FROM 09-14Z/SUN. COULD ALSO
SEE LOW LAYERS SATURATE ENOUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS
EARLY ON SUN...SO WILL KEEP THIS MENTION AS WELL.
KETCHAM
SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
A COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TODAY...WITH THE GFS TAKING
THE BEST DYNAMICS ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND ECMWF ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK. GIVEN THE ECMWF`S CONSISTENCY OVER SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL
MEAN THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST CHUNK OF COLD AIR COMES SOUTH OVER
THE PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD AIR
COMING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS. THERE ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH RESPECT TO 850MB
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES AT THIS POINT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...OR SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STAY
TUNED...
SCHRECK
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES NEAR KICT/KHUT/
KCNU....WITH BOTH KRSL/KSLN BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AS WINDS START TO
INCREASE. NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WANT TO HANDLE THE MVFR TO
NEAR IFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE LOW LAYER CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT AT THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SO WILL GO WITH THIS TREND FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD DECK BREAKING UP SOME.
AFTER 06Z/SUN...LACK OF MIXING TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 COULD
AGAIN LEAD TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FOR THE
KICT/KHUT/KSLN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PREFER THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD TREND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WHEN IT COMES TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINGS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON
SUN....AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO MIX THINGS OUT.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 44 57 40 61 / 10 10 0 20
HUTCHINSON 44 56 40 60 / 10 10 10 20
NEWTON 44 55 39 59 / 10 10 10 20
ELDORADO 42 57 38 59 / 10 10 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 44 58 42 61 / 10 10 0 20
RUSSELL 38 55 33 54 / 10 10 10 20
GREAT BEND 41 54 35 54 / 10 10 0 20
SALINA 41 57 39 58 / 10 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 44 57 40 59 / 10 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20
CHANUTE 45 63 44 61 / 10 10 10 20
IOLA 44 61 42 59 / 10 10 10 20
PARSONS-KPPF 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 212102
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
302 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP OVER KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH. DESPITE CLOUD COVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SOME WARM ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND
PRODUCING THE CLOUD COVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE QUITE LIMITED
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.
IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WHILE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY. IT IS NOT THE GREATEST FOG SETUP...BUT WON`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG AND PERHAPS A BIT OF
DRIZZLE AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS AND LIKELY CLOUD COVER.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
SOME ENHANCED MID LEVEL LIFT DUE TO PVA AND JET DIVERGENCE...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER TO THE NORTH OVER NEBRASKA WHILE KANSAS SHOULD STAY
PRIMARILY DRY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORNING DRIZZLE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS
THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND EC DIG THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN KS INTO SOUTHERN IA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE
GFS HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK...DIGGING THE 5H TROUGH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTM...I`M LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE NAM AND EC TRACK...THIS WILL PROVIDE MUCH OF THE CWA A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. IT MAY GET COLD ENOUGH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES TO BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST AREA FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE ALONG THE DEFORMATION AXIS
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALONG WITH THE BETTER TROWAL
FORMATION. I DID NOT PLACE IN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IS
QUICK ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A INCH OR
TWO OF WET SNOW...BUT SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT.
AS THE 5H TROUGH LIFTS EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD SEE THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW-LEVEL
CAA...CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN
KS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINING WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL WITH MID
40S TO LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY WARM UP AGAIN AS A DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...MAY
BE A BIT WARMER IS SKIES ARE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY.
GARGAN
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AFFECTING ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY
PASS NORTH WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL BREAKS...
AND PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS PER A FEW OF THE
UPSTREAM OBS READING BELOW 1K FOOT CIGS. FORECAST GETS TRICKY
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND IT APPEARS
STRATUS WILL BE FAVORED WITH CIGS LESS THAN 1K FEET FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
FORECAST SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT ANY INCREASE IN DRY AIR MAY
ALLOW CEILINGS TO BREAK UP TO VFR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT
BY MID MORNING REGARDLESS.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
BARJENBRUCH/GARGAN
000
FXUS63 KICT 211752 CCA
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES NEAR KICT/KHUT/
KCNU....WITH BOTH KRSL/KSLN BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AS WINDS START TO
INCREASE. NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WANT TO HANDLE THE MVFR TO
NEAR IFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE LOW LAYER CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT AT THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SO WILL GO WITH THIS TREND FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD DECK BREAKING UP SOME.
AFTER 06Z/SUN...LACK OF MIXING TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 COULD
AGAIN LEAD TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FOR THE
KICT/KHUT/KSLN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PREFER THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD TREND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WHEN IT COMES TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINGS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON
SUN....AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO MIX THINGS OUT.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBILITY AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCATION...AS WELL AS DRIZZLE HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT THE DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. HAVE
INCREASED THE FOG CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST KS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSERT DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS AS THE MOIST
AIRMASS SEEMS TO LINGER FOR AWHILE. DUE TO THE DRIZZLE AND
FOG...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
DUNTEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT NOW TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUILD-DOWN THIS AM AS A RESULT WITH SOME IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKS
LESS LIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH TODAY BENEATH STRONG INVERSION FROM
800-700 MB. THE GFS AND NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/W OF I-135 AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOKS
LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 55 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 56 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 58 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 57 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 55 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 56 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 55 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 59 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 59 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 211751
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
..AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES NEAR KICT/KHUT/
KCNU....WITH BOTH KRSL/KSLN BEGINNING TO MIX OUT AS WINDS START TO
INCREASE. NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW THEY WANT TO HANDLE THE MVFR TO
NEAR IFR CLOUD DECK THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE LOW LAYER CLOUD DECK CLEARING OUT AT THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SO WILL GO WITH THIS TREND FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD DECK BREAKING UP SOME.
AFTER 06Z/SUN...LACK OF MIXING TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 COULD
AGAIN LEAD TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOPING FOR THE
KICT/KHUT/KSLN TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PREFER THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD TREND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW...GIVEN POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE
WHEN IT COMES TO THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THINGS LOOK TO IMPROVE ON
SUN....AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO MIX THINGS OUT.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBILITY AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCATION...AS WELL AS DRIZZLE HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT THE DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. HAVE
INCREASED THE FOG CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST KS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSERT DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS AS THE MOIST
AIRMASS SEEMS TO LINGER FOR AWHILE. DUE TO THE DRIZZLE AND
FOG...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
DUNTEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT NOW TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUILD-DOWN THIS AM AS A RESULT WITH SOME IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKS
LESS LIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH TODAY BENEATH STRONG INVERSION FROM
800-700 MB. THE GFS AND NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/W OF I-135 AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOKS
LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 55 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 56 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 58 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 57 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 55 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 56 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 55 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 59 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 59 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 211744
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
221 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
0430Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. 00Z RAOBS INDICATED SOME WARMING OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. OF SOME INTEREST IS DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE OBSERVED AT
DDC. WITH THIS LOCATION CURRENTLY DIRECTLY UNDER SFC RIDGE COULD SEE
A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CWA AS DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATION FOG THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION...BUT WINDS MAY
OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT. FOR NOW PLAN TO WAIT UNTIL
FORECAST ISSUANCE AND USE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO DETERMINE FOG
THREAT. OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...FAIRLY STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PEAKING
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY QUALITY MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY
LOOKS LIKELY. WITH LARGE T-TD SPREADS IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY THAT ANY
LEVEL COULD BE SATURATED AND ANY INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...SO
KEEPING CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT IN WINDS TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN THE WEST...AND SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS IN EASTERN CWA BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK TO
THE CLOUDS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO STALL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG/JUST
EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING STRATUS...AND
POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FG/-DZ POSSIBLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FRONTAL ZONES. IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THIS
TO DEVELOP...BUT LOWER 40 TDS NOT TO FAR FROM THE CWA SO THIS
SCENARIO NOT TOTALLY UNREASONABLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO LIMIT
HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET IN EASTERN CWA WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY
GOING FORECAST.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOST IMPORTANT AND UNFORTUNATELY MOST UNCERTAIN
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER WINTER
STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA. MODELS STILL SPREAD OUT IN TO NUMEROUS
DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH THIS STORM. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
H5/SFC LOW STRENGTHENING AND OCCLUDING OVER KANSAS...WHILE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO MORE NORTHERLY AND PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH. LOOKING
AT OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS...THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE A MUCH SLOWER
VERSION OF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO BE DEEPER
AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER VERSIONS OF THE GFS. THIS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
MAKE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT AS DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SIMPLY
THINGS LIKE TIMING AND TRACK...BUT OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS ARE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES. WHILE THE
GEFS HAS 3 MEMBERS (OUT OF 20) THAT SUGGEST A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
AND SLOWER SYSTEM...21Z SREF DATA FIRMLY IN MORE PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER
CAMP WITH MEAN ACTUALLY SHOWING LITTLE SPREAD IN H5 SOLUTION UNTIL
SYSTEM GETS OVER MISSOURI. 12Z/00Z CANADIAN MEAN KIND OF LEANING
THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE BEEN THE MOST
STABLE WITH THERE SOLUTION...BUT IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA WHICH PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL THE LAST TWO
SNOWSTORMS.
FOR ALL THE REASONS LISTED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SET
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW ALTHOUGH SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE
BETWEEN AN ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTION WOULD BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT AS IT
WOULD INCORPORATE MORE OF A WORST CASE SCENARIO WHILE STILL PUTTING
A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA. CANNOT GET TOO EXCITED TO
MUCH ABOUT THINGS LIKE TROWALS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHEN THE
CONFIDENCE OF A CLOSED LOW EVEN BEING THERE IS LOW.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS MAY DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALL AGREE
THAT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW CREATING
A BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM IF ANYTHING FALLS. WHILE ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD
SUPPORT A MUCH DRIER FORECAST AM GOING TO TRY TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS SYSTEM NOT EVEN ON SHORE AT THIS TIME. WILL UP POPS
SLIGHTLY WHERE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE CHANCES ARE BEST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
JRM
&&
.AVIATION...
1044 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...SOUTH WINDS BROUGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FOG/STRATUS WAS JUST EAST
OF KMCK. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. LATEST
RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT IFR CONDITIONS TO BE EAST OF KMCK. OTHERWISE...
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER KGLD/KMCK. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z WHICH WILL SWITCH SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT WESTWARD EXENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TONIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 211725
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1125 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18 UTC AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AFFECTING ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY
PASS NORTH WHILE MVFR CEILINGS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT
MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL BREAKS...
AND PERHAPS EVEN A BRIEF DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS PER A FEW OF THE
UPSTREAM OBS READING BELOW 1K FOOT CIGS. FORECAST GETS TRICKY
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND IT APPEARS
STRATUS WILL BE FAVORED WITH CIGS LESS THAN 1K FEET FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
FORECAST SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT ANY INCREASE IN DRY AIR MAY
ALLOW CEILINGS TO BREAK UP TO VFR OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT
BY MID MORNING REGARDLESS.
BARJENBRUCH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION... 09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL
TX...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH
MOVING INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER KS MID LEVEL DRY
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WAS IN PLACE. SFC OBS STILL SHOW A WEAK
SFC RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY
DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. REALLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS DEALING
WITH FOG AND DEVELOPING STRATUS AS WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS REMAINS
TRAPPED WITH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY A WEAK EML. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SATURATION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL FOR DRIZZLE WITH A DEEP STABLE LAYER
AND WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THAT DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE MOISTURE THAT STRATUS IS THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT.
WITH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE A
LITTLE TRICKY. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH SOME WAA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MIN
TEMPS UP IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS. MODELS
NO LONGER BRING A FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH QG FORCING WEAKENING
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AGAIN WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE WAVE AND TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MILD WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS OVER THE GFS. WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND...EXPECT THE
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH ACROSS NEB. BEST CHANCE POPS LOOK
TO BE MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH DECENT QG FORCING
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE CLOSES OFF. SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
SIMILAR TO THE LAST CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE LACKING A TAP INTO
DEEP COLD AIR AND 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BARLEY FALL BELOW 0C.
WITH THE BETTER DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW FOR THIS
EVENT.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THINK COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND
FORECAST SHOWS THIS NICELY SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES BEYOND WED.
WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEATHER GOING ON TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW...THE WEATHER
LOOKS IDEAL FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS LOCALLY AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
WOLTERS
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 211638
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1038 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBILITY AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...PATCHY FOG...DENSE IN SOME LOCATION...AS WELL AS DRIZZLE HAS
MOVED OVER THE AREA. WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT THE DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE. HAVE
INCREASED THE FOG CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH EAST KS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INSERT DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS AS THE MOIST
AIRMASS SEEMS TO LINGER FOR AWHILE. DUE TO THE DRIZZLE AND
FOG...HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.
DUNTEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT NOW TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUILD-DOWN THIS AM AS A RESULT WITH SOME IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKS
LESS LIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH TODAY BENEATH STRONG INVERSION FROM
800-700 MB. THE GFS AND NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/W OF I-135 AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOKS
LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 57 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 55 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 56 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 58 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 58 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 57 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 55 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 56 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 55 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 59 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 59 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 59 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 211329
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
729 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...IMPROVING FOG
SITUATION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE 5 MILES OR GREATER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA AND
EXPECT BROKEN CEILINGS OF 2500 TO 3500 FT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE TAF FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TX...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER KS MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE. SFC OBS STILL SHOW A WEAK SFC RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY
DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. REALLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS DEALING
WITH FOG AND DEVELOPING STRATUS AS WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS REMAINS
TRAPPED WITH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY A WEAK EML. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SATURATION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL FOR DRIZZLE WITH A DEEP STABLE LAYER
AND WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THAT DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE MOISTURE THAT STRATUS IS THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT.
WITH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE A
LITTLE TRICKY. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH SOME WAA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MIN
TEMPS UP IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS. MODELS
NO LONGER BRING A FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH QG FORCING WEAKENING
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AGAIN WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE WAVE AND TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MILD WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS OVER THE GFS. WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND...EXPECT THE
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH ACROSS NEB. BEST CHANCE POPS LOOK
TO BE MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH DECENT QG FORCING
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE CLOSES OFF. SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
SIMILAR TO THE LAST CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE LACKING A TAP INTO
DEEP COLD AIR AND 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BARLEY FALL BELOW 0C.
WITH THE BETTER DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW FOR THIS
EVENT.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THINK COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND
FORECAST SHOWS THIS NICELY SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES BEYOND WED.
WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEATHER GOING ON TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW...THE WEATHER
LOOKS IDEAL FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS LOCALLY AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
WOLTERS
AVIATION...
A FEW ROUNDS OF GROUND FOG ALREADY PASSING OVER TOP ASOS...BUT IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STRUGGLED TO STAY PERSISTENT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPS WELL BEYOND CROSSOVER LEVELS SUGGEST LIFR FG
STILL LIKELY AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE
WOULD KEEP LIMITING CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE LEVEL AND DURATION OF THIS IS
IN QUESTION. GIVEN NARROW BAND OF LOWER CEILINGS TO THE
SOUTH...WILL BRING THINGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/BARJENBRUCH
000
FXUS63 KICT 211143
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
543 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT NOW TURNING
LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT...HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE AREA.
EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUILD-DOWN THIS AM AS A RESULT WITH SOME IFR
CIGS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LOOKS
LESS LIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD SHIELD ALREADY IN PLACE. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG TOUGH TODAY BENEATH STRONG INVERSION FROM
800-700 MB. THE GFS AND NAM-WRF BOTH SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ALONG/W OF I-135 AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC TROF AXIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOKS
LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD.
JMC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 58 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 58 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 61 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 58 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 56 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 58 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 58 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 62 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 62 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 63 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ047>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KGLD 211056
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
356 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
221 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
0430Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. 00Z RAOBS INDICATED SOME WARMING OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. OF SOME INTEREST IS DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE OBSERVED AT
DDC. WITH THIS LOCATION CURRENTLY DIRECTLY UNDER SFC RIDGE COULD SEE
A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CWA AS DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATION FOG THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION...BUT WINDS MAY
OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT. FOR NOW PLAN TO WAIT UNTIL
FORECAST ISSUANCE AND USE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO DETERMINE FOG
THREAT. OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...FAIRLY STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PEAKING
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY QUALITY MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY
LOOKS LIKELY. WITH LARGE T-TD SPREADS IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY THAT ANY
LEVEL COULD BE SATURATED AND ANY INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...SO
KEEPING CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT IN WINDS TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN THE WEST...AND SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS IN EASTERN CWA BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK TO
THE CLOUDS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO STALL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG/JUST
EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING STRATUS...AND
POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FG/-DZ POSSIBLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FRONTAL ZONES. IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THIS
TO DEVELOP...BUT LOWER 40 TDS NOT TO FAR FROM THE CWA SO THIS
SCENARIO NOT TOTALLY UNREASONABLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO LIMIT
HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET IN EASTERN CWA WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY
GOING FORECAST.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOST IMPORTANT AND UNFORTUNATELY MOST UNCERTAIN
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER WINTER
STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA. MODELS STILL SPREAD OUT IN TO NUMEROUS
DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH THIS STORM. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
H5/SFC LOW STRENGTHENING AND OCCLUDING OVER KANSAS...WHILE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO MORE NORTHERLY AND PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH. LOOKING
AT OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS...THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE A MUCH SLOWER
VERSION OF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO BE DEEPER
AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER VERSIONS OF THE GFS. THIS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
MAKE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT AS DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SIMPLY
THINGS LIKE TIMING AND TRACK...BUT OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS ARE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES. WHILE THE
GEFS HAS 3 MEMBERS (OUT OF 20) THAT SUGGEST A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
AND SLOWER SYSTEM...21Z SREF DATA FIRMLY IN MORE PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER
CAMP WITH MEAN ACTUALLY SHOWING LITTLE SPREAD IN H5 SOLUTION UNTIL
SYSTEM GETS OVER MISSOURI. 12Z/00Z CANADIAN MEAN KIND OF LEANING
THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE BEEN THE MOST
STABLE WITH THERE SOLUTION...BUT IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA WHICH PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL THE LAST TWO
SNOWSTORMS.
FOR ALL THE REASONS LISTED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SET
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW ALTHOUGH SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE
BETWEEN AN ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTION WOULD BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT AS IT
WOULD INCORPORATE MORE OF A WORST CASE SCENARIO WHILE STILL PUTTING
A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA. CANNOT GET TOO EXCITED TO
MUCH ABOUT THINGS LIKE TROWALS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHEN THE
CONFIDENCE OF A CLOSED LOW EVEN BEING THERE IS LOW.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS MAY DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALL AGREE
THAT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW CREATING
A BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM IF ANYTHING FALLS. WHILE ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD
SUPPORT A MUCH DRIER FORECAST AM GOING TO TRY TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS SYSTEM NOT EVEN ON SHORE AT THIS TIME. WILL UP POPS
SLIGHTLY WHERE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE CHANCES ARE BEST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
JRM
&&
.AVIATION...
356 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP
KGLD AND KMCK IN VFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. FOG PRODUCT
SATELLITE INDICATING SOME STRATUS AND FOG ADVECTING NORTH OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS BUT LATEST TRENDS INDICATE IT SHOULD STAY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE EAST BUT TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A LACK OF LOW
LEVEL RH. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT WIND TO SUBSIDE DUE
TO DECOUPLING AROUND SUNSET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WIND TO THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FS
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 210931
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
331 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
09Z WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TX...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND A TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVER KS MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WAS IN PLACE. SFC OBS STILL SHOW A WEAK SFC RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY
DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. REALLY THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS DEALING
WITH FOG AND DEVELOPING STRATUS AS WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS REMAINS
TRAPPED WITH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY A WEAK EML. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR SATURATION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER
THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IDEAL FOR DRIZZLE WITH A DEEP STABLE LAYER
AND WEAK LIFT WITHIN THE CLOUD. THINK THAT DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE
OF THE MOISTURE THAT STRATUS IS THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE FOR TONIGHT.
WITH THE STRATUS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...TEMPS COULD BE A
LITTLE TRICKY. THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH SOME WAA ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD MIN
TEMPS UP IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS. MODELS
NO LONGER BRING A FRONT THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH QG FORCING WEAKENING
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. AGAIN WITH THE LIMITED
MOISTURE...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MARGINAL AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS FOR THE
AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE WAVE AND TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. TEMPS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MILD WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED NAM/ECMWF/UKMET WHICH SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER CLUSTERING OF
SOLUTIONS OVER THE GFS. WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND...EXPECT THE
FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE BULK OF THE EVENT
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH ACROSS NEB. BEST CHANCE POPS LOOK
TO BE MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH DECENT QG FORCING
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE CLOSES OFF. SOME WRAP
AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM
SIMILAR TO THE LAST CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE LACKING A TAP INTO
DEEP COLD AIR AND 850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BARLEY FALL BELOW 0C.
WITH THE BETTER DEFORMATION AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW FOR THIS
EVENT.
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTUALLY GIVES WAY TO MID LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THINK COOLER TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND
FORECAST SHOWS THIS NICELY SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES BEYOND WED.
WHILE THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEATHER GOING ON TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW...THE WEATHER
LOOKS IDEAL FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS LOCALLY AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
WOLTERS
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW ROUNDS OF GROUND FOG ALREADY PASSING OVER TOP ASOS...BUT IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STRUGGLED TO STAY PERSISTENT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPS WELL BEYOND CROSSOVER LEVELS SUGGEST LIFR FG
STILL LIKELY AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE
WOULD KEEP LIMITING CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE LEVEL AND DURATION OF THIS IS
IN QUESTION. GIVEN NARROW BAND OF LOWER CEILINGS TO THE
SOUTH...WILL BRING THINGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
65
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KDDC 210924
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
LEE TROUGHING IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO AS
EVIDENCED BY PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 1MB/HR. WINDS OVER
WESTERN KANSAS ARE RESPONDING AND ARE NOW LARGELY FROM THE S-SW. THE
EXCEPTION IS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT INTO CENTRAL KS AND SOME LOW CLOUD IS EVIDENT ON 11-3.9
SATELLITE. THIS CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP AS IT ADVANCES INTO KANSAS
AND IS NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TO THE WEST SO IT SHOULDN`T BE MUCH
OF A PROBLEM TODAY. BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD TO START
THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE DDC FA.
AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY, SFC PRESSURE
FALLS WILL CONTINUE OVER ERN COLORADO. MID LEVELS WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AS WE WARM UP THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODEL WINDS FOR TODAY ARE FORECAST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER SW KS
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS ALMOST CERTAINLY UNDERDONE. AM EXPECTING
A BREEZY DAY TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BY TONIGHT, THE UPR TROF WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO. A 40-50KT LLJ WILL
SET UP AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS UP AND PROVIDE FOR A MILDER
NIGHT TONIGHT, TEMP-WISE. THE UPR TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH WRN KS
SUNDAY ALONG WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT AT THE SFC. THIS INITIAL TROF
IS PRETTY WEAK AND WITH A MUCH STRONGER TROF COMING INTO THE WEST ON
ITS HEALS, SFC WINDS WILL BE SORT OF TRICKY. MODELS SHOW A WIND
SHIFT SUNDAY BUT THEN BRING THEM RIGHT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONGER TROF MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES AND LEE TROFING RESUMES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE ARE LIMITED AND THE TROF IS
COMING FROM A DIRECTION GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE TO PRECIP. -WRIGHT
DAYS 3-7...
THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THEIR RESPECTIVE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
THAT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE THE FARTHEST NORTH...MOVING THE UPPER LOW OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS. THE 00Z CANADIAN HAS NOW HAS THE UPPER LOW COMING
OUT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE ECMWF IS STILL THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN ITS FARTHER SOUTH TRACK. IT
STILL HAS THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS THE DRY SLOT
WILL BE IMPACTING AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT OVERLY COOL WITH TEMPERATURES LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY SO
A RAIN/SNOW MIX STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL KEEP THE SMALL POPS FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN PLACE FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE THE MAIN ISSUE. THE ECMWF SHOWS
WINDSPEEDS AT 850 MB INCREASING TO 40+ KNOTS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SO
THEIR MAY BE A PERIOD WITH WINDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LATER PERIODS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FROM HAYS TO EAST OF DODGE CITY THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY AROUND
DODGE CITY AND HAYS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 38 53 35 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 60 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 61 36 55 34 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 62 36 56 34 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 58 37 53 35 / 0 0 0 10
P28 60 43 58 40 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN34/02/02
000
FXUS63 KGLD 210924
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
221 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
0430Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE CWA
WITH LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AT THE SFC TROUGH AXIS
WAS PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. 00Z RAOBS INDICATED SOME WARMING OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. OF SOME INTEREST IS DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE OBSERVED AT
DDC. WITH THIS LOCATION CURRENTLY DIRECTLY UNDER SFC RIDGE COULD SEE
A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOME FOG/STRATUS MAY SNEAK INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CWA AS DOWNSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE AIRMASS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATION FOG THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY ADVECTING THIS AIRMASS TOWARDS THE REGION...BUT WINDS MAY
OFFSET ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT. FOR NOW PLAN TO WAIT UNTIL
FORECAST ISSUANCE AND USE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS TO DETERMINE FOG
THREAT. OTHERWISE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...FAIRLY STRONG FORCING OVERSPREADS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PEAKING
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY QUALITY MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY
LOOKS LIKELY. WITH LARGE T-TD SPREADS IT WOULD BE UNLIKELY THAT ANY
LEVEL COULD BE SATURATED AND ANY INSTABILITY BE REALIZED...SO
KEEPING CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO GO. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT IN WINDS TODAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
IN THE WEST...AND SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20KTS IN EASTERN CWA BEFORE
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL
DEPART THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING A BRIEF BREAK TO
THE CLOUDS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO STALL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG/JUST
EAST OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING STRATUS...AND
POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FG/-DZ POSSIBLE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
FRONTAL ZONES. IS GOING TO TAKE A LOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THIS
TO DEVELOP...BUT LOWER 40 TDS NOT TO FAR FROM THE CWA SO THIS
SCENARIO NOT TOTALLY UNREASONABLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO LIMIT
HOW COLD THINGS WILL GET IN EASTERN CWA WHICH IS HANDLED WELL BY
GOING FORECAST.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MOST IMPORTANT AND UNFORTUNATELY MOST UNCERTAIN
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER WINTER
STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA. MODELS STILL SPREAD OUT IN TO NUMEROUS
DIFFERENT CAMPS WITH THIS STORM. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
H5/SFC LOW STRENGTHENING AND OCCLUDING OVER KANSAS...WHILE GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO MORE NORTHERLY AND PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE
00Z ECMWF HAS CONTINUED TO HOLD ONTO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT HAS TRANSITIONED CONSIDERABLY FARTHER NORTH. LOOKING
AT OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS...THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE A MUCH SLOWER
VERSION OF THE GFS...WHILE THE NAM AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO BE DEEPER
AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER VERSIONS OF THE GFS. THIS SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
MAKE THE FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT AS DIFFERENCES ARE NOT SIMPLY
THINGS LIKE TIMING AND TRACK...BUT OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THINGS ARE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLES. WHILE THE
GEFS HAS 3 MEMBERS (OUT OF 20) THAT SUGGEST A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY
AND SLOWER SYSTEM...21Z SREF DATA FIRMLY IN MORE PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER
CAMP WITH MEAN ACTUALLY SHOWING LITTLE SPREAD IN H5 SOLUTION UNTIL
SYSTEM GETS OVER MISSOURI. 12Z/00Z CANADIAN MEAN KIND OF LEANING
THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE BEEN THE MOST
STABLE WITH THERE SOLUTION...BUT IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE
AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE DATA WHICH PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL THE LAST TWO
SNOWSTORMS.
FOR ALL THE REASONS LISTED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SET
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW ALTHOUGH SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE
BETWEEN AN ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTION WOULD BE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT AS IT
WOULD INCORPORATE MORE OF A WORST CASE SCENARIO WHILE STILL PUTTING
A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA. CANNOT GET TOO EXCITED TO
MUCH ABOUT THINGS LIKE TROWALS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHEN THE
CONFIDENCE OF A CLOSED LOW EVEN BEING THERE IS LOW.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A WINDOW WHERE
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. WHILE AMOUNTS MAY DIFFER BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALL AGREE
THAT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE LOW CREATING
A BLOWING SNOW PROBLEM IF ANYTHING FALLS. WHILE ENSEMBLE DATA WOULD
SUPPORT A MUCH DRIER FORECAST AM GOING TO TRY TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS SYSTEM NOT EVEN ON SHORE AT THIS TIME. WILL UP POPS
SLIGHTLY WHERE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE CHANCES ARE BEST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
JRM
&&
.AVIATION...
409 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT BECOME GUSTY AROUND THE 15G25KT RANGE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.
50
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 210913
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE CLOUDS TODAY AND THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS:
LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED SOME IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WERE ALLOWED TO
RADIATE OUT.
TODAY-SUNDAY:
FOG COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...UNSURE OF HOW DENSE THE
FOG WILL GET WITH THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE AREA. BUT FEEL
THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP. HAVE
LEFT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTACT FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER
EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HOLD ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAN THE
NAM...AND THE GFS KEEPS CLOUDS AROUND ALL DAY. DO FEEL THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE IF THE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AND HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE. AND SUNDAY MORNING COULD BRING MORE FOG AND DRIZZLE TO
CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...IT WILL BE A NICE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THIS REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO
DIG THE TROUGH AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND THE UK MET AND NAM AND EVEN SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK LIKE THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WITH THIS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT
THE LOW WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND HAVE GONE WITH THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WILL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE
THE FRONT ALONG HIGHWAY 81 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA...IF THIS TRACK HOLDS.
WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES SOME ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE TUESDAY WEATHER MAKER WILL EXIT THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE
THANKSGIVING WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND NO PRECIPITATION TO MENTION.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
BILLINGS
$$
..AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AS EXPECTED...00 UTC MODELS CAME IN WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL HAVE NOT BEEN TRACKING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. BELIEVE FOG WILL BE A COMBINATION OF
RADIATION...ADVECTION AND BUILD-DOWN PROCESSES. THIS SEEMS MOST
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF KHUT-KRSL. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 30S AT KRSL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 18
UTC WITH INCREASED MIXING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 60 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 0
HUTCHINSON 58 44 56 40 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 58 44 55 39 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 61 42 57 38 / 10 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 61 44 58 42 / 10 10 10 0
RUSSELL 58 38 55 33 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 56 41 54 35 / 10 10 10 0
SALINA 58 41 57 39 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 58 44 57 40 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 62 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 62 45 63 44 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 62 44 61 42 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 63 45 63 45 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ047>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KTOP 210552
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW ROUNDS OF GROUND FOG ALREADY PASSING OVER TOP ASOS...BUT IFR
VISIBILITIES HAVE STRUGGLED TO STAY PERSISTENT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPS WELL BEYOND CROSSOVER LEVELS SUGGEST LIFR FG
STILL LIKELY AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE
WOULD KEEP LIMITING CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE LEVEL AND DURATION OF THIS IS
IN QUESTION. GIVEN NARROW BAND OF LOWER CEILINGS TO THE
SOUTH...WILL BRING THINGS UP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
65
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY TRAPPED BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AS A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER IS IN PLACE OVER TEXAS...THE TROUGH PRODUCING
OUR WET WEATHER EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...
AND A LARGE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING ON TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...PROVIDING DRY SINKING AIR...LIGHT
WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A STRONG INVERSION
WILL FORM OVER THESE AREAS AND TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW THE CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURE AND ESSENTIALLY SHOULD REACH 100 PERCENT RH THROUGH THE
LOWEST 1000 FEET BY EARLY MORNING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH SOME
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. ANTICIPATE THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL DENSITY
OF FOG...AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL DENSE FOG IS NOT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT SO HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL THE
DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT A LITTLE BETTER.
SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL
BE MORE PREDOMINANT THAN TODAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL
LIFT INTO A STRATUS DECK AND PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH. GFS IS ATTEMPTING TO
OUTPUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP...BUT LIFT APPEARS MARGINAL AND OVERALL
MOISTURE DEPTH IS LACKING. MAY SEE A BIT OF DRIZZLE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ACCUMULATING PRECIP.
BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LOW-LEVEL WAA OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER...IF SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON THEN
HIGHS MAY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WE KEEP THE LOW
STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY THEN HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER...MAY ONLY
SEE THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE 12Z RUN OF THE EC DIGS THE 5H TROUGH FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN LIFTS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROUGH EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF KS. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z GFS DIGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE
NAM LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IF THE EC
SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE BEST TROWAL SET
UP WOULD BE NORTH OF THE CWA ACROSS EASTERN NE. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD BE MUCH DRIER WITH THE MOST OF THE FORCING AND ASCENT
REMAINING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE NAM MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KS...SO THERE
WOULD BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. I PLACED IN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS MONDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE NAM
AND EC CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON THEIR CURRENT SOLUTIONS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP CHANCES.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE TURNING SHARPLY COOLER AS BOTH THE EC
AND GFS SHOW A LONGER WAVE LENGTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IF WE KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WE MAY NOT
SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
GARGAN
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 210402
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1002 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
00 UTC MODELS ONCE AGAIN OFF TO POOR START WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND TRENDS. LOCAL WRF IS FARING BEST WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS. FOG CHANCES ARE NOW LOOKING MUCH
BETTER IN SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN CURRENT CLEARING TREND THERE. AS
SATURATED AIR ACROSS NE OK IS ADVECTED UPHILL INTO THE COOLER
AIR...SHOULD SEE DECENT CHANCE OF DENSE FOG. FOR AREA GENERALLY
WEST OF I-35...THIS PROCESS MAY NOT GET GOING IN EARNEST UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH UPPER 40 DEW POINTS LIKELY PUSHING UPHILL
INTO MID-UPPER 30 DEGREE AIR...SHOULD SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP AND
RAPIDLY EXPAND TO THE WEST/NORTH OF ICT. AS A RESULT...HAVE
EXPANDED THE FOG ADVISORY SEVERAL MORE COUNTIES TO THE
NORTH/WEST...DELAYED THE ONSET BY AN HOUR AND EXTENDED IT UNTIL
NOON. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE APPEARS TO HANG AROUND ALL MORNING
OVER PART OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. -HOWERTON
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
AS EXPECTED...00 UTC MODELS CAME IN WITH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL HAVE NOT BEEN TRACKING WELL WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS/TRENDS. BELIEVE FOG WILL BE A COMBINATION OF
RADIATION...ADVECTION AND BUILD-DOWN PROCESSES. THIS SEEMS MOST
LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF KHUT-KRSL. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE 30S AT KRSL. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AROUND 18
UTC WITH INCREASED MIXING. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
GIVEN RATHER POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ACCURACY OF DETAILS WITH THIS FORECAST. 1800 UTC
NORTH AMERICAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE OFF TO A BETTER START...ALTHOUGH
A BIT LACKING IN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NE OK WHERE SOME IFR CEILINGS/DRIZZLE
ARE OCCURRING. AT FACE VALUE IT WOULD SUGGEST LOWEST CONDITIONS
ALONG WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING. LOW IFR WOULD
BE LIKELY IF NORTH AMERICAN MODEL IS CORRECT AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT BUT
WOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST 1800 UTC WHEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING. -HOWERTON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS...AND STRATUS
AND FOG ARE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING SOON AFTER MOVING NORTH
OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE...REMOVED PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SE KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STRONGER OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EXPECT THE MAIN BULK
OF PRECIP TO STAY DOWN THERE. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WINDS...CLOUDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS KS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
DUNTEN
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY AROUND 9Z...AND ARE
SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB. FROM 9Z TO ABOUT
15Z...SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. AN
ADVECTION TYPE FOG SCENARIO IS LIKELY WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL DENSE FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO
WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS POINT AND
THEN LET LATER SHIFTS EXPAND IF NECESSARY.
THE DENSE FOG SHOULD TRANSITION TO NON-DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THAT MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SCHRECK
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AM FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONT. BIG QUESTION WILL REMAIN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF IOWA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT
THIS BEING OUR COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
RHE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 45 59 43 56 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 39 57 41 55 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 41 57 42 54 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 43 58 41 56 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 47 62 43 57 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 36 58 38 54 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 37 57 37 53 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 37 56 42 56 / 0 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 39 57 42 56 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 46 59 43 62 / 10 10 10 10
CHANUTE 42 57 44 62 / 10 10 10 10
IOLA 42 56 43 60 / 10 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 44 58 43 62 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KICT 210036
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
GIVEN RATHER POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...NOT
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ACCURACY OF DETAILS WITH THIS FORECAST. 1800 UTC
NORTH AMERICAN MODEL APPEARS TO BE OFF TO A BETTER START...ALTHOUGH
A BIT LACKING IN BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NE OK WHERE SOME IFR CEILINGS/DRIZZLE
ARE OCCURRING. AT FACE VALUE IT WOULD SUGGEST LOWEST CONDITIONS
ALONG WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST AREA TOMORROW MORNING. LOW IFR WOULD
BE LIKELY IF NORTH AMERICAN MODEL IS CORRECT AT KRSL/KHUT/KICT BUT
WOULD NOT DEVELOP UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. CONDITIONS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO IMPROVE UNTIL AT LEAST 1800 UTC WHEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW MORE MIXING. -HOWERTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE FOG LIKELIHOOD TONIGHT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SYNOPSIS:
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS TEXAS...AND STRATUS
AND FOG ARE PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION AND CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING SOON AFTER MOVING NORTH
OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON:
WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN BOTH RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE...REMOVED PRECIP
CHANCES FOR SE KANSAS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STRONGER OVER EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR EXPECT THE MAIN BULK
OF PRECIP TO STAY DOWN THERE. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE
WINDS...CLOUDS HAVE REMAIN NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING ACROSS KS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
DUNTEN
TONIGHT-SUNDAY:
SURFACE WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURATE QUICKLY AROUND 9Z...AND ARE
SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 750MB. FROM 9Z TO ABOUT
15Z...SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION RIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE. AN
ADVECTION TYPE FOG SCENARIO IS LIKELY WITH THESE CONDITIONS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL DENSE FOG BE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SO
WE WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS POINT AND
THEN LET LATER SHIFTS EXPAND IF NECESSARY.
THE DENSE FOG SHOULD TRANSITION TO NON-DENSE FOG ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA AROUND MID-MORNING...AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THAT MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SCHRECK
MONDAY-TUESDAY:
AM FOLLOWING THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE FRONT. BIG QUESTION WILL REMAIN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF IOWA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD RESULT
THIS BEING OUR COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
WEATHER LOOKS GOOD FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
RHE
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND STREAM NORTH INTO THE AREA. INITIALLY THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS INTO KICT AND KHUT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THIS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH INTO
CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. CERTAINLY HAVE SOME
CONCERNS IN MOST LOCATIONS ABOUT FOG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
IFR FOG MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z/SAT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...AS MOISTURE BUILDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH A POSSIBLE STRATUS BUILD DOWN SITUATION DEVELOPING.
WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO WATCH THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAF SITES FOR
THE 10-14Z/SAT TIME FRAME AS VISIBILITIES COULD BECOME LIFR. WILL
LET LATER TAF ISSUANCES LOOK AT THIS CHANCE.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 41 59 43 56 / 0 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 39 57 41 55 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 42 57 42 54 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 40 58 41 56 / 0 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 45 62 43 57 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELL 32 58 38 54 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 33 57 37 53 / 0 10 10 10
SALINA 37 56 42 56 / 0 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 39 57 42 56 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 47 59 43 62 / 10 20 10 10
CHANUTE 44 57 44 62 / 10 20 10 10
IOLA 43 56 43 60 / 10 20 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 45 58 43 62 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.
&&
$$
| 
