000
FXUS63 KLMK 240822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

LATEST TAMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF SDF SHOWS RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WITH SATURATED AIR FROM 850MB DOWN TO THE SFC. CLOUD COVER WILL THUS
STICK AROUND WELL AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS ARE STARTING TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE SE. SO ALTHOUGH LOW VSBYS ARE LIKELY FROM SOME
BUILD DOWN OF STRATUS...WINDS SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING. IT
WILL BE MORE LIKE MIST OR DRIZZLE WITH 1-3 MILES VSBYS ACCOMPANIED
BY LOW STRATUS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOSTLY MIDDAY...LONGER ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING CURRENTLY OVER NE KANSAS WILL QUICKLY APPROACH
THE REGION HELPING TO MOVE THE CLOUD COVER EASTWARD OR SCATTER IT
OUT BY THIS EVENING (SOONER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA).
BECAUSE OF THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER UNTIL THEN THOUGH...HIGH TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO RAISE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES TODAY OVER THE ERN CWA.
THINK A LATE DAY WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE W AND SW THOUGH AS
SKIES CLEAR A BIT. HAVE MID 50S FOR HIGHS NE TO AROUND 60 FOR THE SW.

LATER THIS EVENING...THE SFC LOW OVER KS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BY 00Z. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 00-12Z TONIGHT-EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT
ISOLATED-SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE SLIGHT-LOW CHC POPS OVER THE
FAR WRN CWA...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. ANY RAIN THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE LIGHT SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW. AND THOUGH IT
APPEARS MOST PLACES WILL RECEIVE SOME RAIN...WILL CONTINUE ONLY CHC
POPS SINCE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS WILL RESULT. COLD AIR WILL TRY AND
RUSH IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT BUT WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT AROUND 40 OVER THE FAR
WEST...WITH MID 40S ELSEWHERE (ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLUEGRASS WHERE
CLOUDS WILL RESIDE LONGER).

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - MONDAY)...

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
LONG TERM. THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE WHEN PRECIP
WILL OCCUR AND WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES SHOULD HAVE MADE IT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION. WE
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE A SECOND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY.

THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BEFORE INCREASING AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES IT LOOKS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL LIQUID
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAYS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. A
CHANGEOVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL OCCUR WITH ALL SNOW LIKELY BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY
MORNING. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING EXCEPT ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW IT WILL BE CHILLY ON FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S. BEYOND THAT SATURDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH LOWS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE.

FOR THE EXTENDED TERM THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL COME
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FORMS A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF GENERALLY MVFR (EMBEDDED IFR) CIGS
BLANKETS THE REGION. WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
OVERCAST SKIES...IFR-MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
POSSIBLY THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THOUGH BY MIDDAY...CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR. FROM NOW UNTIL 15Z...VSBYS WILL WAVER IN AND AROUND THE IFR
CATEGORY DUE TO MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS BUILD DOWN
EFFECTS TAKE OVER. DO NOT THINK DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE SINCE
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT GO ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH A SSE WIND
SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON (20Z OR LATER) AS POSSIBLE CLOUD
BREAKS WILL HELP MIX DOWN SOME HIGHER WINDS AT THE 2-4KFT LEVEL.
BEST CHANCE FOR OVC CLOUDS TO GO BKN OR EVEN SCT WOULD BE AT BWG.

AFTER 22Z...WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK BREAK BETWEEN LOW CIGS AND THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SKIES WILL CLOUD BACK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT (SHOULD BE VFR CIGS THOUGH) TOWARDS 03Z
WEDNESDAY...WHERE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AL
LONG TERM.........EES
AVIATION..........AL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240750 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER EAST KENTUCKY AS
A BROAD AND INEFFECTUAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STRADDLING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TO THE WEST...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FOUND
SPINNING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY HAS
RESULTED IN A LAYER OF STRATUS BLANKETING THE CWA...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABNORMALLY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH NARY A STIRRING OF THE
WIND. PATCHY FOG IS FOUND IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND THIS MAY BE A
SIGN OF WHAT IS TO COME FOR THE REST OF THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. FOR
NOW...THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY IT BY EAR AS FOR HOW HARD TO HIT
THE FOG OVER THE COMING HOURS...BUT LIKELY WILL HANDLE IT MAINLY WITH
JUST A NOWCAST SHOULD IT BE DEEMED SIGNIFICANT IN ANY PARTICULAR
AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE PLAINS ROLLING INTO THE MIDWEST ON A NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY...
OPENING UP LATER TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LOSE MUCH OF ITS PUNCH AS
IT SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL ULTIMATELY FADE OUT IN THE FACE OF A DEEPER...
DEVELOPING...AND REINFORCING LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE CORN BELT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF THE MOST SIMILAR NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THESE UPPER
LOWS. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE TROUGHING TO SPREAD OVER KENTUCKY
LATER TONIGHT WITH A WEAKENING STREAM OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH
AROUND DAWN WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH THEN EASES UP SOMEWHAT LATER
WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS TEMPORALLY RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT PLUNGING UPPER
LOW.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER DAY THANKS TO A RETURN OF
SOME SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...
ONCE THE MORNING FOG AND STRATUS BURNS OFF. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING...BUT WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP READINGS MILD FOR
THE MOST PART TONIGHT WITH A SMALL...5 TO 7 DEGREE...RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED. THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY RENEWED CAA IN ITS WAKE. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE
WITH A MODEL DERIVED DIURNAL CURVE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL EXPECT A BIT OF A RISE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME RETURNING SUNSHINE LIKELY TO COUNTERACT THE
COOLER AIR BROUGHT IN ON MORE WESTERLY WINDS.

UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY DUE TO A START OF THE DAY
FEATURING FOG AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS. FOR TONIGHT...WAS SIMILAR TO
GUIDANCE AT THE CCF POINTS...THOUGH WITH MORE OF A RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE REPRESENTED...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. ALSO
UNDERCUT MOS HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY DUE PRIMARILY TO UNDERREPRESENTED CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP A TAD ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE HEIGHT FALLS AND EXPECTATION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

TWO STORM SYSTEMS ARE POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE PERIOD AS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVERTAKES THE CONUS TO END THE MONTH. FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT HOWEVER THAT THE MONTH WILL END
WITH A COOL AND RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY.

THE FIRST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK MOISTURE STARVED AND THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL ACTUALLY BE POST-FRONTAL... THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH PASSING UPPER
TROUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD RESULT
IN FALLING TEMPS FROM THE MORNING HIGHS. MODEL TIME/HEIGHTS INDICATE
CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT I
AM NOT SURE JUST HOW COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL GET THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOT OF MIXING AND CLOUD COVER. THUS
PRECIP TYPE MAY TEND TO FAVOR RAIN IN OUR VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT... BUT A TREND TOWARD SNOW SHOULD TAKE OVER QUICKLY WITH
ANY ELEVATION AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY. ANY RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL THEN END QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE THINS OUT RAPIDLY
AND RIDGING BUILDS IN SURFACE AND ALOFT.

RIDGING WILL THEN PROVIDE A DRY SATURDAY BUT PROGS INDICATE THE NEXT
SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS BY SUNDAY. TEND TO
FAVOR A QUICKER ONSET TO RAIN CHANCES... A LA THE 24/00Z ECMWF AND
EARLIER NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN... THUS WILL OFFER RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY WITH SOLID RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO HINDER OUR WEEKEND WARM UP AND HELD DAYTIME TEMPS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BELOW 24/00Z GFSX GUIDANCE NUMBERS. A LESS
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM LEADING TO MORE/LONGER RIDGING OVER OUR AREA LATE
IN THE PERIOD WOULD HURT THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD COUNTER ANY CLEARING OF THE STRATUS DECK IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH MVFR CIG AND VIS LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PARTIAL CLEARING AT THE TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AROUND DAWN. THE FOG AND
LOW CIGS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED
FROM THE SOUTH AT NEAR 10 KTS DURING THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240610 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
110 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/

WILL UPDATE THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT TO RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND BEEF UP FOG WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SPRINKLES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED OFF AND WE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN
PLACE AND WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDING IN TONIGHT...FEEL
THAT THE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOISTURE PRETTY SUPPRESSED. LOW STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. LEANED
TOWARD OR WENT ABOVE THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TONIGHT BASED ON HOW THICK
SKY COVER SHOULD REMAIN. MAV IS DOING A BETTER JOB AT HANDLING THIS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TWO STRONG WAVES
DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
SWING TWO COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. THE FIRST
LOOKS TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED OTHER THAN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCES OF RAINFALL NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS BIG CHANGES TO THE CWA
WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL DISCUSS THE
IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS HINT AT SLOW EROSION OF
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ON TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT PAST CLIMATOLOGY.
AS A RESULT...RELIED A LITTLE MORE ON THE MORE MOIST GFS AS IT
HANDLES THIS SCENARIO BETTER AND HAS PERFORMED SUPERIOR TO THE NAM
OVER RECENT DAYS. ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S
BASED ON SKIES SCATTERING OUT A LITTLE MORE RAPIDLY...BUT WILL
DISREGARD THIS AND EVEN UNDERCUT COOLER GFS GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT MUCH
OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS
MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT TUESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ANY REPRIEVE FROM
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN AHEAD OF
THE FIRST COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND MORE POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING IN...HOWEVER THIS
FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENT
MID LEVEL WAVE ITSELF.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM 120 KT H3 JET AND ITS LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT ALLUDED TO
ABOVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
DROPPING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 40S ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THAT
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET WITH
NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW SETTING IN AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING ALL SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NIGHT. THESE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR A CHANGE OVER BACK TO ALL RAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR THANKSGIVING NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
COLUMN IS NEARLY SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO H7. THIS WOULD PUT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE -10 TO -12 C RANGE...THE POINT WHERE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ICE CRYSTALS GREATLY IMPROVES. THEREAFTER TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION FOR MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES/SPRINKLE MIX AS SATURATED LAYER DOESN/T EXTEND MUCH ABOVE -5
TO -8 C. SINCE A STUDY SHOWS THAT ICE CRYSTALS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT
THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT FOR AN INCH OR TWO ON THE THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD
INTO THE REGION...CREATING A WARM NOSE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR A SIZABLE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS SKIES CLEAR AND RIDGETOPS COME UNDER WARM AIR
ADVECTION. EXPECT VALLEYS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S WITH RIDGES WARMING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES...OR POSSIBLY HIGHER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS PRETTY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
POTENT TROUGH LOOKS TO ENGULF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND RIDE ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE CWA. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE SETUP FOR A
VERY WET END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD COUNTER ANY CLEARING OF THE STRATUS DECK IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA...WITH MVFR CIG AND VIS LIKELY DEVELOPING OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON OVER PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PARTIAL CLEARING AT THE TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO PATCHY DENSE FOG...HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS AROUND DAWN. THE FOG AND
LOW CIGS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED
FROM THE SOUTH AT NEAR 10 KTS DURING THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 240520
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1220 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE RAIN BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE
SPARSE. SO...WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AFTER
00Z.

PERSISTENT CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...COMBINED
WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. GIVEN THAT AND CURRENT DEW POINTS IT APPEARS MET IS
TOO COLD AND WILL SIDE MORE TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON OUR TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED OVERHEAD. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SPOTS THAT GOT A FEW RAINDROPS TODAY
AND CAN DEVELOP ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME WIDESPREAD DENSE MORNING FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS...DISCUSSED IN GREATER
DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THROW AN ISOLATED SHOWER INTO THE FAR WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SALEM TO HARDINSBURG TO
RUSSELLVILLE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE 23/12Z GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE 23/00Z RUNS WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  INITIAL H5 LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER...A SECOND AND MORE POTENT H5 LOW WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT
OUT BY FRIDAY.  OVERALL...THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE WITH EACH MODEL RUN.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
OUR BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT.  A DRY PUNCH WILL ALLOW A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY THEN WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP
AS THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES IN BY THANKSGIVING DAY
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW TRENDS OF
WARMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  LOWS TUES NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S.  THE COOLDOWN STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S WED NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH
AND MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND LOWER PBL
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AS WELL WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SEEMS MUCH
LESS LIKELY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS MUCH MORE
LIKELY. A FULL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY FOR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
BY FRIDAY MORNING.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TWO
REASONS.  FIRST...RECENT CO-OP DATA STILL SHOWS 4IN SOIL TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S...AND SECOND...THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
IS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE.  THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...SOME BRIDGES AND ELEVATED OVERPASSES MAY
DEVELOP SOME SLICK SPOTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  WE WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS ON TAP AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST.  ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY.  THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS OUT AND MOISTURE
BECOMES MORE SCANT.  SFC 2M TEMPS FROM THE RAW GFS CONTINUE TO TREND
WARMER AND WE`VE RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.  A
GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE WILL BE NOTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE SW TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE.  DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE NE TO AROUND 30 IN THE SW.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE SAT-MON TIME PERIOD...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  IN GENERAL...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY WITH A DRY FCST AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.  HIGHS SAT WILL MODERATE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND AROUND 50 IN THE SE.  LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE EAST AND MID 30S IN THE WEST.

BY SUNDAY...LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE GOING TO LEAD TO A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST HERE.  THE EURO HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON DROPPING
A LARGE TROUGH INTO THE WEST WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURING OVER
TX.  THE GFS KEEPS MORE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH
RESULTS IN A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM UP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A SIMILAR STORM TRACK THAT WE SAW THROUGH
MUCH OF OCTOBER 2009.  WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN RUN FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FCST PD WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER AND DEEPER SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD TO OUR
WEST EARLY ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS MOVES UP THROUGH LA/MS/TN.
THIS SHOULD BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF A WINTRY MIX ON THE BACKSIDE IF THE COLDER
AIR CAN GET INTO THE REGION BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH
MONDAY`S HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  LOWS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY TUE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF GENERALLY MVFR (EMBEDDED IFR) CIGS
BLANKETS THE REGION. WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED
OVERCAST SKIES...IFR-MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z
POSSIBLY THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THOUGH BY MIDDAY...CIGS MAY IMPROVE TO
LOW VFR. FROM NOW UNTIL 15Z...VSBYS WILL WAVER IN AND AROUND THE IFR
CATEGORY DUE TO MIST/DRIZZLE/LIGHT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME AS STRATUS BUILD DOWN
EFFECTS TAKE OVER. DO NOT THINK DENSE FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE SINCE
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT GO ANYWHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH A SSE WIND
SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON (20Z OR LATER) AS POSSIBLE CLOUD
BREAKS WILL HELP MIX DOWN SOME HIGHER WINDS AT THE 2-4KFT LEVEL.
BEST CHANCE FOR OVC CLOUDS TO GO BKN OR EVEN SCT WOULD BE AT BWG.

AFTER 22Z...WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK BREAK BETWEEN LOW CIGS AND THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SKIES WILL CLOUD BACK UP AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT (SHOULD BE VFR CIGS THOUGH) TOWARDS 03Z
WEDNESDAY...WHERE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BWG AND SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........AL

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240348 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1048 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

WILL UPDATE THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT TO RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT
BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND BEEF UP FOG WORDING IN THE ZONES. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SPRINKLES AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON HAS MOVED OFF AND WE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN
PLACE AND WITH WEAK H5 RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDING IN TONIGHT...FEEL
THAT THE SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP MOISTURE PRETTY SUPPRESSED. LOW STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. LEANED
TOWARD OR WENT ABOVE THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TONIGHT BASED ON HOW THICK
SKY COVER SHOULD REMAIN. MAV IS DOING A BETTER JOB AT HANDLING THIS.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TWO STRONG WAVES
DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
SWING TWO COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. THE FIRST
LOOKS TO OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL BE FAIRLY MOISTURE
STARVED OTHER THAN THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCES OF RAINFALL NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE LINGERING EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS BIG CHANGES TO THE CWA
WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL DISCUSS THE
IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS HINT AT SLOW EROSION OF
LOW LEVEL STRATUS ON TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS TO FIT PAST CLIMATOLOGY.
AS A RESULT...RELIED A LITTLE MORE ON THE MORE MOIST GFS AS IT
HANDLES THIS SCENARIO BETTER AND HAS PERFORMED SUPERIOR TO THE NAM
OVER RECENT DAYS. ETA GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S
BASED ON SKIES SCATTERING OUT A LITTLE MORE RAPIDLY...BUT WILL
DISREGARD THIS AND EVEN UNDERCUT COOLER GFS GUIDANCE. FEEL THAT MUCH
OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS
MAY BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT TUESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ANY REPRIEVE FROM
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM IN AHEAD OF
THE FIRST COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE.

WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT AND MORE POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING IN...HOWEVER THIS
FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENT
MID LEVEL WAVE ITSELF.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

A POTENT H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM 120 KT H3 JET AND ITS LEFT
ENTRANCE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT ALLUDED TO
ABOVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
DROPPING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE LOWER 40S ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THAT
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMIT WITH
NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW SETTING IN AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY BECOMING ALL SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NIGHT. THESE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR A CHANGE OVER BACK TO ALL RAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR THANKSGIVING NIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
COLUMN IS NEARLY SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO H7. THIS WOULD PUT
THE SATURATED LAYER IN THE -10 TO -12 C RANGE...THE POINT WHERE
LIKELIHOOD FOR ICE CRYSTALS GREATLY IMPROVES. THEREAFTER TIMING AND
AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION FOR MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES/SPRINKLE MIX AS SATURATED LAYER DOESNT EXTEND MUCH ABOVE -5
TO -8 C. SINCE A STUDY SHOWS THAT ICE CRYSTALS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT
THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL...DO NOT EXPECT ANY REAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EXCEPT FOR AN INCH OR TWO ON THE THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILD
INTO THE REGION...CREATING A WARM NOSE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR A SIZABLE
RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS SKIES CLEAR AND RIDGETOPS COME UNDER WARM AIR
ADVECTION. EXPECT VALLEYS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S WITH RIDGES WARMING
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES...OR POSSIBLY HIGHER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS PRETTY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
POTENT TROUGH LOOKS TO ENGULF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. A
SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND RIDE ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE CWA. THIS COULD PROVIDE THE SETUP FOR A
VERY WET END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

A SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THERE IS A LOT OF RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS A BIT
MIXED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR DAWN RANGING FROM VLIFR TO IFR. EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS DRAPING
ITSELF ON RIDGE TOPS AND SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STATIONS TO HAVE CONDITIONS GOING UP AND
DOWN ESPECIALLY DURING THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST. VFR WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHOETTMER
SHORT TERM...GUEST/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....GUEST/SCHOETTMER
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 240053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
753 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT AFTER 21Z AND EFFECTIVELY END THE
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WEAK RIDGING
FOLLOWS...AS DOES A SLOW EROSION OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. SO AS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS HINTS OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

THOSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO
MUCH TONIGHT FROM CURRENT VALUES...AND A BETTER REBOUND CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A BIT BETTER INSOLATION TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA...AND IN TURN...AMPLIFIES A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. HERALDING THIS TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER WILL BE
A COUPLE OF RATHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTS COMING ACROSS MID
WEEK. FIRST ONE MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
ONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE FIRST FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A MODEST SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON
WEDNESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MUCH COLDER AND UNSTABLE AIR
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
STILL...AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE IN LIQUID FORM AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW...ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH WILL BE MINIMAL FOR SNOW POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
RATHER SHALLOW. THUS...WHILE GOING WITH COLDER TEMPS THAN HPC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...BRINGING ABOUT DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

A SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND THERE IS A LOT OF RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS A BIT
MIXED WITH CONDITIONS NEAR DAWN RANGING FROM VLIFR TO IFR. EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS DRAPING
ITSELF ON RIDGE TOPS AND SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STATIONS TO HAVE CONDITIONS GOING UP AND
DOWN ESPECIALLY DURING THE 09-13Z TIMEFRAME. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST. VFR WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUEST
LONG TERM....GUEST
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KLMK 232313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
613 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE RAIN BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE
SPARSE. SO...WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AFTER
00Z.

PERSISTENT CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...COMBINED
WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. GIVEN THAT AND CURRENT DEW POINTS IT APPEARS MET IS
TOO COLD AND WILL SIDE MORE TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON OUR TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED OVERHEAD. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SPOTS THAT GOT A FEW RAINDROPS TODAY
AND CAN DEVELOP ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME WIDESPREAD DENSE MORNING FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS...DISCUSSED IN GREATER
DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THROW AN ISOLATED SHOWER INTO THE FAR WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SALEM TO HARDINSBURG TO
RUSSELLVILLE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE 23/12Z GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE 23/00Z RUNS WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  INITIAL H5 LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER...A SECOND AND MORE POTENT H5 LOW WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT
OUT BY FRIDAY.  OVERALL...THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE WITH EACH MODEL RUN.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
OUR BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT.  A DRY PUNCH WILL ALLOW A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY THEN WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP
AS THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES IN BY THANKSGIVING DAY
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW TRENDS OF
WARMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  LOWS TUES NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S.  THE COOLDOWN STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S WED NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH
AND MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND LOWER PBL
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AS WELL WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN
AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SEEMS MUCH
LESS LIKELY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.  HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS MUCH MORE
LIKELY. A FULL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY FOR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
BY FRIDAY MORNING.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TWO
REASONS.  FIRST...RECENT CO-OP DATA STILL SHOWS 4IN SOIL TEMPS IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S...AND SECOND...THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS
IS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE.  THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...SOME BRIDGES AND ELEVATED OVERPASSES MAY
DEVELOP SOME SLICK SPOTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  WE WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT THIS AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS ON TAP AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST.  ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY.  THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS OUT AND MOISTURE
BECOMES MORE SCANT.  SFC 2M TEMPS FROM THE RAW GFS CONTINUE TO TREND
WARMER AND WE`VE RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.  A
GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE WILL BE NOTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE SW TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE.  DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE NE TO AROUND 30 IN THE SW.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE SAT-MON TIME PERIOD...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  IN GENERAL...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY WITH A DRY FCST AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.  HIGHS SAT WILL MODERATE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND AROUND 50 IN THE SE.  LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE EAST AND MID 30S IN THE WEST.

BY SUNDAY...LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE GOING TO LEAD TO A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST HERE.  THE EURO HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON DROPPING
A LARGE TROUGH INTO THE WEST WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURING OVER
TX.  THE GFS KEEPS MORE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH
RESULTS IN A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM UP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A SIMILAR STORM TRACK THAT WE SAW THROUGH
MUCH OF OCTOBER 2009.  WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN RUN FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FCST PD WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER AND DEEPER SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD TO OUR
WEST EARLY ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS MOVES UP THROUGH LA/MS/TN.
THIS SHOULD BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF A WINTRY MIX ON THE BACKSIDE IF THE COLDER
AIR CAN GET INTO THE REGION BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH
MONDAY`S HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  LOWS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY TUE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE 23Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WE SEE
A LARGE AREA OF LOW... MAINLY MVFR CIGS... THAT COVER ALL THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. SO I EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES WELL INTO MID DAY TUESDAY
ACROSS THE REGION. IF CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT THEN FOG WILL BE AN
ISSUE BUT FOR NOW WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LOW CIGS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JA

000
FXUS63 KPAH 232105
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
GRUNDGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ALL
GUIDANCE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH T/TDS TODAY...GENERALLY WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE OR NEAR MILDER MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

LATE TONIGHT...MOST MODELS DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN
ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER IN HOW FAR EAST THE BAND WILL THRIVE
INTO OUR AREA. THE ECMWF WHICH IS FAVORED...LIFTS THE SHOWERS
NORTHEAST WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH ONLY MEAGER QPF OVER WEST KENTUCKY. THE NAM
IS ON THE OTHER EXTREME...BRINGING A NICE BAND OF SHOWERS EASTWARD
WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. THE GFS IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN. GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF WEST KENTUCKY MAY NOT SEE MUCH
QPF WITH THIS EVENT. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN TIMING...WITH
THE SHOWERS REACHING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE LATE MORNING...AND
EXITING THE EAST/NORTHEAST IN THE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING.
CANNOT SEE ANY SUPPORT FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT POP...SO REMOVED
THEM. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY...BUT
WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN SHOWERS. FEEL THAT THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. THE COLD AIR IS THERE ALOFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS NO COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THIS
STORM SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY FLAKE
OR TWO IN THE EVANSVILLE AREA...BUT CHANCE IS TOO MEAGER TO MENTION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY. IN THE EXTENDED...THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA AT SOME POINT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY
TO LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE 20-30 POPS FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MODELS VARY BEYOND MONDAY...BUT A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS
BEEN PROMINENT IN SEVERAL RUNS. THIS LOW IN SOME RUNS IS RATHER DEEP
AND COULD CAUSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...INCLUDING OUR AREA...TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE LIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KCGI
AND KPAH. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THAT AT THIS TIME.
COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT CLEARING OR
WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY WORSE FOG CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

DRS

000
FXUS63 KLMK 232015
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...

THE UPPER WAVE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TODAY WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE RAIN BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE
SPARSE. SO...WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AFTER
00Z.

PERSISTENT CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...COMBINED
WITH VERY WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING MUCH. GIVEN THAT AND CURRENT DEW POINTS IT APPEARS MET IS
TOO COLD AND WILL SIDE MORE TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON OUR TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED OVERHEAD. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SPOTS THAT GOT A FEW RAINDROPS TODAY
AND CAN DEVELOP ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME WIDESPREAD DENSE MORNING FOG APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS...DISCUSSED IN GREATER
DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THROW AN ISOLATED SHOWER INTO THE FAR WEST BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SALEM TO HARDINSBURG TO
RUSSELLVILLE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE 23/12Z GFS AND EURO ARE A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE 23/00Z RUNS WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  INITIAL H5 LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER...A SECOND AND MORE POTENT H5 LOW WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THEN LIFT
OUT BY FRIDAY.  OVERALL...THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
TO FLUCTUATE WITH EACH MODEL RUN.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
OUR BEST SHOT OF SHOWERS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INITIAL
COLD FRONT.  A DRY PUNCH WILL ALLOW A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY THEN WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION RAMP UP
AS THE SECOND AND MORE POTENT UPPER LOW MOVES IN BY THANKSGIVING DAY
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW TRENDS OF
WARMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.  LOWS TUES NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WARMING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S. THE COOL DOWN STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S WED NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH
AND MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND LOWER PBL
TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AS WELL WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE
RUN AND THEREFORE THE RISK OF A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SEEMS
MUCH LESS LIKELY FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...CRITICAL THICKNESSES WILL LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS MUCH MORE
LIKELY. A FULL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY FOR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST...RECENT CO-OP DATA STILL SHOWS 4IN SOIL
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...AND SECOND...THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS IS LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE. THOUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...SOME BRIDGES AND ELEVATED
OVERPASSES MAY DEVELOP SOME SLICK SPOTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTING THIS THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT THIS
AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS ON TAP AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST.  ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
THE FCST AREA ON FRIDAY.  THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS OUT AND MOISTURE
BECOMES MORE SCANT.  SFC 2M TEMPS FROM THE RAW GFS CONTINUE TO TREND
WARMER AND WE/VE RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. A
GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE WILL BE NOTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN
THE SW TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE. DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN THE NE TO AROUND 30 IN THE SW.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE SAT-MON TIME PERIOD...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  IN GENERAL...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY WITH A DRY FCST AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND A
DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S.  HIGHS SAT WILL MODERATE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS AND AROUND 50 IN THE SE.  LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE EAST AND MID 30S IN THE WEST.

BY SUNDAY...LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE GOING TO LEAD TO A
LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST HERE.  THE EURO HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON DROPPING
A LARGE TROUGH INTO THE WEST WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER
TX.  THE GFS KEEPS MORE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH
RESULTS IN A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM UP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID-SECTION
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A SIMILAR STORM TRACK THAT WE SAW THROUGH
MUCH OF OCTOBER 2009.  WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN RUN FOR THIS
PORTION OF THE FCST PD WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER AND DEEPER SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING RAIN SHIELD TO OUR
WEST EARLY ON SUNDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS MOVES UP THROUGH LA/MS/TN.
THIS SHOULD BRING A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF A WINTRY MIX ON THE BACKSIDE IF THE COLDER
AIR CAN GET INTO THE REGION BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S WITH
MONDAY`S HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER
50S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  LOWS SUN NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO NEAR
FREEZING BY TUE MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A STORM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST RAINFALL
OFF TO OUR WEST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...OTHER THAN A FEW STRAY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO AVIATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY TRAPPED IN THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE TO AVIATION...WITH ANY SURFACE VISIBILITIES REMAINING AT
OR ABOVE 2 MILES. IF HOLES CAN DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST TOWARDS
MORNING THEN SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........13

000
FXUS63 KJKL 231921
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
221 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT AFTER 21Z AND EFFECTIVELY END THE
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. WEAK RIDGING
FOLLOWS...AS DOES A SLOW EROSION OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. SO AS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS HINTS OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

THOSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF TOO
MUCH TONIGHT FROM CURRENT VALUES...AND A BETTER REBOUND CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH A BIT BETTER INSOLATION TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A COLDER WEATHER PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA...AND IN TURN...AMPLIFIES A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. HERALDING THIS TREND TOWARD COLDER WEATHER WILL BE
A COUPLE OF RATHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTS COMING ACROSS MID
WEEK. FIRST ONE MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
ONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THE FIRST FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A MODEST SURGE OF COOLER AIR ON
WEDNESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE SECOND FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MUCH COLDER AND UNSTABLE AIR
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
STILL...AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE IN LIQUID FORM AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR FOR SNOW...ICE CRYSTAL
GROWTH WILL BE MINIMAL FOR SNOW POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
RATHER SHALLOW. THUS...WHILE GOING WITH COLDER TEMPS THAN HPC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...BRINGING ABOUT DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING VISIBILITIES DECREASING TO
IFR LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG CONFIDENCE DESPITE THE LOW CLOUD
DECK...AND HAVE LEANED ON THIS DATA IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE
VISIBILITY GRIDS.

VFR RETURNS TUESDAY WITH THE DISSOLUTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY CALM OR OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...GUEST
LONG TERM...GUEST
AVIATION...GUEST
FIRE WEATHER...GUEST

000
FXUS63 KPAH 231816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. ALSO UPDATED
DISCUSSION SECTION FOR MORNING TRENDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TOOK A SECOND SHOT AT METAR AND RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAY
SEE SOME BREAKS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...AS MAIN CLOUD
SHIELD SPREADS NORTHWARD OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH SOUTH WINDS
GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING
IS LIKELY DESPITE A LACK OF SUNSHINE. THE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL NEED A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO CLEAR THE NORTHEAST...SO ADDED A
ISOLATED MENTION IN THE GRIDS UP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CHANGE
WAS TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA OVERCAST TONIGHT...TO BE IN LINE WITH
AVIATION FORECAST.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IS OUT.
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT FAR FROM 00Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...06Z GFS OR 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THESE SHOULD BE LIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KCGI
AND KPAH. COULD ALSO SEE SOME CEILINGS DROPPING INTO IFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THAT AT THIS TIME.
COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL BE DRY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITHOUT CLEARING OR
WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY WORSE FOG CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

DRS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 231758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1258 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS OPENED UP INTO A WAVE THIS MORNING...BASICALLY
BISECTING THE COMMONWEALTH WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM SDF
TO GSP. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A BAND ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS AXIS CURRENTLY PASSING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR CWA.
A SECOND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN ON THE REGIONAL WATER
VAPOR LOOP. THIS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH
OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WILL TEND
TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN TODAY. BUT WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A BIT FOR TUESDAY. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS LINE OF THOUGHT IS THE RIGHT
DIRECTION TO TAKE...COMING IN WARMER AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT. ANY
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN TWO CAMPS WITH
RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE QUITE
SIMILAR WITH THIS LOW...TAKING IT NORTHEAST TO CHICAGO-LAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE NAM CLUSTER. WITH
THE NEW ECMWF BASICALLY MIRRORING THE GFS...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY THAT DIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FORMING A DEEPER CLOSED LOW NOT FAR FROM THE
AREA THAT THE EARLIER ONE HAD OCCUPIED 24 HOURS PRIOR. IT IS THIS LOW
THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS
DEEP...BUT INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...LOW BECOMES A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
SWEEPING ITS ELONGATED BAND OF ENERGY INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FROM HERE...WITH THE SLOWER GFS CATCHING UP TO THE
ECMWF...THE TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS INTO A BOWLING BALL OF SPINNING
ENERGY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NOW
CONSOLIDATED MASS THEM MOVES EAST RELATIVELY QUICKLY INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ITS LARGE INFLUENCE COVERING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS IS AGAIN A MORE EXTREME
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 5 TO
6 DAYS OUT. MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND WORK EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE BULK OF THE DOMINANT TROUGH...
WITH A GREATER LEAN TOWARD THE NEW...AND LESS EXTREME...ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC LOW INITIALLY MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK DRAGGING A WEAK AND
RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY. WITH THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TAKING PLACE TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE HELD IN PLACE...KEEPING A
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HOLIDAY FORECAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...
A PORTION OF THE SFC LOW WILL JUMP TO THE EAST COAST AND THIS PIECE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE
FORECAST. THE BROAD...DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO SEND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION EVEN AS ITS CYCLONIC WINDS BRING COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPINNING BY...
MORE MOISTURE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROLONG THE GENERALLY LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED CAA
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO THE EAST WILL COOL THE
COLUMN OF AIR THROUGH THE REGION MAKING SNOW SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY
ALONG WITH THE RAIN. THESE SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WHEN THE FLAKES WILL NOT BE FIGHTING SOLAR
INSOLATION. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LIGHT TOTALS ON
THE HIGHEST RIDGES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALMOST ALL THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY LEAVING BEHIND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THIS AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER THAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOLLOWED THE MEX NUMBERS FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH
MINOR TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...THOUGH DID UNDERCUT THEM FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND CAA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO THE MEX GUIDANCE...BUT KEPT THE LIKELY POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST IN THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY...AWAITING FURTHER CONFIRMATION WITH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING VISIBILITIES DECREASING TO
IFR LATE TONIGHT WITH STRONG CONFIDENCE DESPITE THE LOW CLOUD
DECK...AND HAVE LEANED ON THIS DATA IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE
VISIBILITY GRIDS.

VFR RETURNS TUESDAY WITH THE DISSOLUTION OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY CALM OR OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...GUEST

000
FXUS63 KLMK 231715
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1215 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EASTWARD AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AS EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDY
COVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 40S UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMEN.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - SUNDAY)...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...

THE OPS NAM AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE THEIR SLOWING TREND THAT THEY`VE
DISPLAYED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SLOWING TREND FIRST
AFFECTS THE TUES-WED SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOW MOSTLY A WED SYSTEM SINCE
TUES BEGINS WITH THE STACKED LOW OVER ERN KS/WRN MO...WELL WEST OF
OUR CWA. OTHER THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE WEST LATE TUESDAY...THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING PRECIP INTO OUR CWA UNTIL NEARLY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED POPS FROM TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY BRING LOW CHC POPS IN FROM
THE WEST TUES NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVER THE NORTH.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE REALLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS MOST
PLACES.

HAVE POPS ENDING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY OVER THE NERN CWA AS THE
STACKED LOW MOVES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WED NIGHT...JUST IN
TIME FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO ARRIVE. AS THE TUES NIGHT-WED MORN LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH
QUICKLY DIVES SE TOWARDS OUR REGION WED NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE REALLY COLD AIR WILL WAIT
UNTIL THURSDAY TO FILTER IN...HOWEVER A RA/SN MIX MAY REACH OUR FAR
NWRN CWA VERY LATE WED NIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.

THANKSGIVING-FRIDAY...

CHILLY AND SNOWY FOR THE HOLIDAY?

THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD AND WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS FROM THE COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. ANY
PRECIP FROM THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT GIVEN ITS
STRENGTH WE SHOULD GET SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. JUST HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH IN THE MORNING AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS EVEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE TURKEY DAY.
ACTUALLY THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WILL BE
LATE IN THE DAY. GOOD DAY TO STAY IN AS HIGHS WILL NOT BE ABOVE THE
MID 40S.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES JUST TO OUR NE AND WE REMAIN IN A COLD NW
FLOW. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BELOW 1300M AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AS
LOW AS 950MB YIELD ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S. HOWEVER...WARM GROUNDS SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM STICKING
TO THE GROUND...THOUGH SLICK SPOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE THANKSGIVING
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SO BE CAREFUL IF YOU HEAD OUT TO SHOP
FRIDAY MORNING. SLICK SPOTS AND CHILLY TEMPS WILL NOT LEAD TO THE
BEST TRAVEL WEATHER FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR BLACK FRIDAY...A COLD NNW FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES MAY KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
TAPER THOSE OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRI-FRI NIGHT. AGAIN...NO ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED. WENT ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S
NE TO LOW 40S SW...BUT RAW GFS NUMBERS SUGGEST EVEN COLDER TEMPS.
GUSTY NW WINDS OF 25MPH WILL CREATE SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE
LOW 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A STORM SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL KEEP MOST RAINFALL
OFF TO OUR WEST FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...OTHER THAN A FEW STRAY
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO AVIATION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY TRAPPED IN THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW STRATUS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE TO AVIATION...WITH ANY SURFACE VISIBILITIES REMAINING AT
OR ABOVE 2 MILES. IF HOLES CAN DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST TOWARDS
MORNING THEN SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........LMS
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........13

000
FXUS63 KLMK 231437
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
937 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

...FORECAST UPDATE...

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO SPREAD ISOLATED POPS THROUGHOUT THE
CWFA AS SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE BOWLING GREEN REGION AND ARE
HEAING TO THE NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EASTWARD AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AS EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDY
COVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 40S UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMEN.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - SUNDAY)...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...

THE OPS NAM AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE THEIR SLOWING TREND THAT THEY`VE
DISPLAYED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SLOWING TREND FIRST
AFFECTS THE TUES-WED SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOW MOSTLY A WED SYSTEM SINCE
TUES BEGINS WITH THE STACKED LOW OVER ERN KS/WRN MO...WELL WEST OF
OUR CWA. OTHER THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE WEST LATE TUESDAY...THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING PRECIP INTO OUR CWA UNTIL NEARLY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED POPS FROM TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY BRING LOW CHC POPS IN FROM
THE WEST TUES NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVER THE NORTH.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE REALLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS MOST
PLACES.

HAVE POPS ENDING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY OVER THE NERN CWA AS THE
STACKED LOW MOVES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WED NIGHT...JUST IN
TIME FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO ARRIVE. AS THE TUES NIGHT-WED MORN LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH
QUICKLY DIVES SE TOWARDS OUR REGION WED NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE REALLY COLD AIR WILL WAIT
UNTIL THURSDAY TO FILTER IN...HOWEVER A RA/SN MIX MAY REACH OUR FAR
NWRN CWA VERY LATE WED NIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.

THANKSGIVING-FRIDAY...

CHILLY AND SNOWY FOR THE HOLIDAY?

THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD AND WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS FROM THE COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. ANY
PRECIP FROM THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT GIVEN ITS
STRENGTH WE SHOULD GET SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. JUST HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH IN THE MORNING AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS EVEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE TURKEY DAY.
ACTUALLY THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WILL BE
LATE IN THE DAY. GOOD DAY TO STAY IN AS HIGHS WILL NOT BE ABOVE THE
MID 40S.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES JUST TO OUR NE AND WE REMAIN IN A COLD NW
FLOW. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BELOW 1300M AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AS
LOW AS 950MB YIELD ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S. HOWEVER...WARM GROUNDS SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM STICKING
TO THE GROUND...THOUGH SLICK SPOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE THANKSGIVING
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SO BE CAREFUL IF YOU HEAD OUT TO SHOP
FRIDAY MORNING. SLICK SPOTS AND CHILLY TEMPS WILL NOT LEAD TO THE
BEST TRAVEL WEATHER FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR BLACK FRIDAY...A COLD NNW FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES MAY KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
TAPER THOSE OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRI-FRI NIGHT. AGAIN...NO ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED. WENT ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S
NE TO LOW 40S SW...BUT RAW GFS NUMBERS SUGGEST EVEN COLDER TEMPS.
GUSTY NW WINDS OF 25MPH WILL CREATE SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE
LOW 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO HOVER AROUND THE VFR/MVFR
RANGE AT BWG AND LEX FROM NOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SDF MAY STAY
AT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LEX UNTIL SUNSET BUT THE FORECAST OTHERWISE WILL REMAIN
DRY. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES BUT THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT OR BREAKS UP
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........13
SHORT TERM.....LMS
LONG TERM......AL
AVIATION.......LMS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 231232
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT WEATHER...THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAT
WAS ADVECTED INTO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY ON
SUNDAY HAS CEASED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION. A GOOD STRATUS DECK...INDICATIVE THE DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN...WAS COVERING THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. THE KPAH VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS THAT THE
WARM/MOIST AIR HAS WORKED DOWN AS FAR AS 925 MB IN EXTREME
SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY...WITH A GREATER DEPTH OF WARM MOIST AIR
FROM SURFACE TO NEARLY 700 MB. THEREFORE...UNTIL THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MIXING THROUGH THE WARM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON RADAR AND SOME SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SUCH A WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHWEST
IL AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. EARLIER MODEL RUNS FROM THE NAM-WRF/SREF AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY. IN ANY CASE...I MAY NEED TO
ADDRESS THIS MATTER BEFORE SENDING OUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

UNTIL THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IS FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE APPROACHING LOW OVER KS/NORTHWEST MO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT I SUSPECT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE GFS/SREF/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATION
OF THE UPPER FROM KS INTO NORTHERN MO BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVE...SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...I HAVE CHOSEN TO SLOW THE ONSET OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.

WITH RESPECT TO ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE EVOLVING GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...I HAVE
KEPT PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND THE EASTERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KY...EXCEPT
FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THERMAL
PROFILES ALOFT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT COOLING IN THE CRYSTALLIZATION
ZONE FOR A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. GIVEN THE WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF
SPATIALLY ADJUSTED GFS/ECMWF THERMAL FIELDS. DEWPOINTS AND WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WERE ADJUSTED UNDER A GREATER INFLUENCE OF NAM-
WRF/RUC MASS/WIND FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY INVADING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KEVV/KOWB FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING MVFR...BUT KPAH AND KCGI ARE ALREADY THERE. IN ADDITION TO
THE CIGS...WE WILL SEE VSBYS DROP DOWN INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS AND SCATTERED IFR VSBYS ARE LURKING JUST TO THE
SOUTH...SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW LONG THESE VERY LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND IF THEY WILL RETURN LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE MVFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
AS WELL AND WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY AFFECT KPAH...POSSIBLY KOWB/KEVV
LATER ON. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 231138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
638 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS OPENED UP INTO A WAVE THIS MORNING...BASICALLY
BISECTING THE COMMONWEALTH WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM SDF
TO GSP. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A BAND ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS AXIS CURRENTLY PASSING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR CWA.
A SECOND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN ON THE REGIONAL WATER
VAPOR LOOP. THIS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH
OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WILL TEND
TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN TODAY. BUT WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A BIT FOR TUESDAY. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS LINE OF THOUGHT IS THE RIGHT
DIRECTION TO TAKE...COMING IN WARMER AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT. ANY
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN TWO CAMPS WITH
RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE QUITE
SIMILAR WITH THIS LOW...TAKING IT NORTHEAST TO CHICAGO-LAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE NAM CLUSTER. WITH
THE NEW ECMWF BASICALLY MIRRORING THE GFS...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY THAT DIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FORMING A DEEPER CLOSED LOW NOT FAR FROM THE
AREA THAT THE EARLIER ONE HAD OCCUPIED 24 HOURS PRIOR. IT IS THIS LOW
THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS
DEEP...BUT INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...LOW BECOMES A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
SWEEPING ITS ELONGATED BAND OF ENERGY INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FROM HERE...WITH THE SLOWER GFS CATCHING UP TO THE
ECMWF...THE TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS INTO A BOWLING BALL OF SPINNING
ENERGY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NOW
CONSOLIDATED MASS THEM MOVES EAST RELATIVELY QUICKLY INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ITS LARGE INFLUENCE COVERING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS IS AGAIN A MORE EXTREME
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 5 TO
6 DAYS OUT. MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND WORK EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE BULK OF THE DOMINANT TROUGH...
WITH A GREATER LEAN TOWARD THE NEW...AND LESS EXTREME...ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC LOW INITIALLY MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK DRAGGING A WEAK AND
RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY. WITH THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TAKING PLACE TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE HELD IN PLACE...KEEPING A
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HOLIDAY FORECAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...
A PORTION OF THE SFC LOW WILL JUMP TO THE EAST COAST AND THIS PIECE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE
FORECAST. THE BROAD...DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO SEND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION EVEN AS ITS CYCLONIC WINDS BRING COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPINNING BY...
MORE MOISTURE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROLONG THE GENERALLY LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED CAA
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO THE EAST WILL COOL THE
COLUMN OF AIR THROUGH THE REGION MAKING SNOW SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY
ALONG WITH THE RAIN. THESE SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WHEN THE FLAKES WILL NOT BE FIGHTING SOLAR
INSOLATION. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LIGHT TOTALS ON
THE HIGHEST RIDGES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALMOST ALL THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY LEAVING BEHIND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THIS AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER THAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOLLOWED THE MEX NUMBERS FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH
MINOR TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...THOUGH DID UNDERCUT THEM FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND CAA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO THE MEX GUIDANCE...BUT KEPT THE LIKELY POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST IN THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY...AWAITING FURTHER CONFIRMATION WITH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE PASSING THROUGH THE
AREA...KICKING OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION THIS MORNING. LOWER IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO OUR SOUTH HAVE
ROTATED NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TN VALLEY REGION...DROPPING CIGS ACROSS
OUR AREA AS WELL. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED...CAUSING IFR
VSBYS IN SOME OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT FOG WILL
BECOME AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH STRATUS LIKELY BUILDING DOWN...
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE PROCESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...RAY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 231048
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
548 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EASTWARD AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AS EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDY
COVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 40S UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMEN.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - SUNDAY)...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...

THE OPS NAM AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE THEIR SLOWING TREND THAT THEY`VE
DISPLAYED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SLOWING TREND FIRST
AFFECTS THE TUES-WED SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOW MOSTLY A WED SYSTEM SINCE
TUES BEGINS WITH THE STACKED LOW OVER ERN KS/WRN MO...WELL WEST OF
OUR CWA. OTHER THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE WEST LATE TUESDAY...THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING PRECIP INTO OUR CWA UNTIL NEARLY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED POPS FROM TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY BRING LOW CHC POPS IN FROM
THE WEST TUES NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVER THE NORTH.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE REALLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS MOST
PLACES.

HAVE POPS ENDING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY OVER THE NERN CWA AS THE
STACKED LOW MOVES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WED NIGHT...JUST IN
TIME FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO ARRIVE. AS THE TUES NIGHT-WED MORN LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH
QUICKLY DIVES SE TOWARDS OUR REGION WED NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE REALLY COLD AIR WILL WAIT
UNTIL THURSDAY TO FILTER IN...HOWEVER A RA/SN MIX MAY REACH OUR FAR
NWRN CWA VERY LATE WED NIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.

THANKSGIVING-FRIDAY...

CHILLY AND SNOWY FOR THE HOLIDAY?

THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD AND WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS FROM THE COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. ANY
PRECIP FROM THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT GIVEN ITS
STRENGTH WE SHOULD GET SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. JUST HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH IN THE MORNING AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS EVEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE TURKEY DAY.
ACTUALLY THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WILL BE
LATE IN THE DAY. GOOD DAY TO STAY IN AS HIGHS WILL NOT BE ABOVE THE
MID 40S.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES JUST TO OUR NE AND WE REMAIN IN A COLD NW
FLOW. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BELOW 1300M AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AS
LOW AS 950MB YIELD ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S. HOWEVER...WARM GROUNDS SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM STICKING
TO THE GROUND...THOUGH SLICK SPOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE THANKSGIVING
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SO BE CAREFUL IF YOU HEAD OUT TO SHOP
FRIDAY MORNING. SLICK SPOTS AND CHILLY TEMPS WILL NOT LEAD TO THE
BEST TRAVEL WEATHER FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR BLACK FRIDAY...A COLD NNW FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES MAY KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
TAPER THOSE OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRI-FRI NIGHT. AGAIN...NO ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED. WENT ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S
NE TO LOW 40S SW...BUT RAW GFS NUMBERS SUGGEST EVEN COLDER TEMPS.
GUSTY NW WINDS OF 25MPH WILL CREATE SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE
LOW 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
CLOUDY SKIES TO THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO HOVER AROUND THE VFR/MVFR
RANGE AT BWG AND LEX FROM NOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SDF MAY STAY
AT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LEX UNTIL SUNSET BUT THE FORECAST OTHERWISE WILL REMAIN
DRY. FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES BUT THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT OR BREAKS UP
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........LS
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........LS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 230959
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
359 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009


.DISCUSSION...
WITH RESPECT TO CURRENT WEATHER...THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR THAT
WAS ADVECTED INTO THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY ON
SUNDAY HAS CEASED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY DECENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION. A GOOD STRATUS DECK...INDICATIVE THE DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN...WAS COVERING THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. THE KPAH VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS THAT THE
WARM/MOIST AIR HAS WORKED DOWN AS FAR AS 925 MB IN EXTREME
SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY...WITH A GREATER DEPTH OF WARM MOIST AIR
FROM SURFACE TO NEARLY 700 MB. THEREFORE...UNTIL THERE IS
SUFFICIENT MIXING THROUGH THE WARM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON RADAR AND SOME SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH SUCH A WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE OVER SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHWEST
IL AND THE PURCHASE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. EARLIER MODEL RUNS FROM THE NAM-WRF/SREF AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY. IN ANY CASE...I MAY NEED TO
ADDRESS THIS MATTER BEFORE SENDING OUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

UNTIL THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA IS FULLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE APPROACHING LOW OVER KS/NORTHWEST MO THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT...BUT I SUSPECT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

THE GFS/SREF/ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATION
OF THE UPPER FROM KS INTO NORTHERN MO BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH PROGRESSIVE...SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE...I HAVE CHOSEN TO SLOW THE ONSET OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.

WITH RESPECT TO ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE EVOLVING GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW/CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...I HAVE
KEPT PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND THE EASTERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KY...EXCEPT
FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN THERMAL
PROFILES ALOFT SUPPORT SUFFICIENT COOLING IN THE CRYSTALLIZATION
ZONE FOR A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. GIVEN THE WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WERE ADJUSTED USING A BLEND OF
SPATIALLY ADJUSTED GFS/ECMWF THERMAL FIELDS. DEWPOINTS AND WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WERE ADJUSTED UNDER A GREATER INFLUENCE OF NAM-
WRF/RUC MASS/WIND FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY INVADING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KEVV/KOWB FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...BUT AT
KPAH AND KCGI...WE ARE AT OR VERY NEAR MVFR CIGS ATTM. THESE MVFR
CIGS WILL REMAIN WITH US FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...MAYBE
SCATTERING OUT BY AFTERNOON...BUT DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR BEFORE SUNSET.
IN ADDITION TO THE MVFR CIGS...WE COULD SEE VSBYS DROP DOWN INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CW
SHORT/LONG TERM PUBLIC...SMITH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 230820 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...UPDATED

UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS OPENED UP INTO A WAVE THIS MORNING...BASICALLY
BISECTING THE COMMONWEALTH WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM SDF
TO GSP. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM IN A BAND ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS AXIS CURRENTLY PASSING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR CWA.
A SECOND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE CAN BE SEEN ON THE REGIONAL WATER
VAPOR LOOP. THIS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
LATER TODAY AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH
OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. OVERCAST SKIES WILL TEND
TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN TODAY. BUT WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A BIT FOR TUESDAY. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST THIS LINE OF THOUGHT IS THE RIGHT
DIRECTION TO TAKE...COMING IN WARMER AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT. ANY
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT BEGINS WITH THE MODELS IN TWO CAMPS WITH
RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND
ITS MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE QUITE
SIMILAR WITH THIS LOW...TAKING IT NORTHEAST TO CHICAGO-LAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE NAM CLUSTER. WITH
THE NEW ECMWF BASICALLY MIRRORING THE GFS...HAVE GONE WITH A BLENDED
SOLUTION OF THESE TWO MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD CLOSED
UPPER LOW. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY THAT DIVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FORMING A DEEPER CLOSED LOW NOT FAR FROM THE
AREA THAT THE EARLIER ONE HAD OCCUPIED 24 HOURS PRIOR. IT IS THIS LOW
THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS
DEEP...BUT INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...LOW BECOMES A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH
SWEEPING ITS ELONGATED BAND OF ENERGY INTO THE THE OHIO VALLEY BY
THURSDAY MORNING. FROM HERE...WITH THE SLOWER GFS CATCHING UP TO THE
ECMWF...THE TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS INTO A BOWLING BALL OF SPINNING
ENERGY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NOW
CONSOLIDATED MASS THEM MOVES EAST RELATIVELY QUICKLY INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ITS LARGE INFLUENCE COVERING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...AND THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. AT THIS POINT...THE GFS IS AGAIN A MORE EXTREME
SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 5 TO
6 DAYS OUT. MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
AND WORK EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THE BULK OF THE DOMINANT TROUGH...
WITH A GREATER LEAN TOWARD THE NEW...AND LESS EXTREME...ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC LOW INITIALLY MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK DRAGGING A WEAK AND
RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED FRONT ACROSS KENTUCKY. WITH THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TAKING PLACE TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE HELD IN PLACE...KEEPING A
THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HOLIDAY FORECAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...
A PORTION OF THE SFC LOW WILL JUMP TO THE EAST COAST AND THIS PIECE
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE
FORECAST. THE BROAD...DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL HELP TO SEND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION EVEN AS ITS CYCLONIC WINDS BRING COLDER AIR
INTO THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPINNING BY...
MORE MOISTURE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROLONG THE GENERALLY LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED CAA
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW TO THE EAST WILL COOL THE
COLUMN OF AIR THROUGH THE REGION MAKING SNOW SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY
ALONG WITH THE RAIN. THESE SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT DURING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WHEN THE FLAKES WILL NOT BE FIGHTING SOLAR
INSOLATION. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE SOME LIGHT TOTALS ON
THE HIGHEST RIDGES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALMOST ALL THE SHOWERS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY LEAVING BEHIND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THIS AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO
MODERATE LATER THAT NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FOLLOWED THE MEX NUMBERS FAIRLY CLOSE FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH
MINOR TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...THOUGH DID UNDERCUT THEM FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND CAA. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO THE MEX GUIDANCE...BUT KEPT THE LIKELY POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST IN THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY...AWAITING FURTHER CONFIRMATION WITH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...KICKING OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE AND LOWER IFR TO MVFR
CIGS TO OUR SOUTH WILL ROTATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TN VALLEY
REGION...DROPPING CIGS ACROSS OUR AREA AS WELL AROUND THE EARLY
MORNING...DAWN TIME FRAME. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE KENTUCKY...
VIRGINIA...AND TENNESSEE STATE LINE HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO
REALIZE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
MONDAY EVENING WITH STRATUS BUILDING DOWN...LOWERING VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 230802
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
302 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EASTWARD AND MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AS EASTERLY
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. BY TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDY
COVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE MID 40S UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMEN. ALSO
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVELS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GUIDANCE IN PRODUCING FAIRLY LOW
VISIBILITY VALUES SO WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED IT IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY OCCUR AND IN
THAT CASE THERE WOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY FOG.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY - SUNDAY)...

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...

THE OPS NAM AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE THEIR SLOWING TREND THAT THEY`VE
DISPLAYED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SLOWING TREND FIRST
AFFECTS THE TUES-WED SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOW MOSTLY A WED SYSTEM SINCE
TUES BEGINS WITH THE STACKED LOW OVER ERN KS/WRN MO...WELL WEST OF
OUR CWA. OTHER THAN SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE WEST LATE TUESDAY...THE
MODELS DO NOT BRING PRECIP INTO OUR CWA UNTIL NEARLY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
REMOVED POPS FROM TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY BRING LOW CHC POPS IN FROM
THE WEST TUES NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS REMAINING OVER THE NORTH.
QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE REALLY LIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS MOST
PLACES.

HAVE POPS ENDING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY OVER THE NERN CWA AS THE
STACKED LOW MOVES NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WED NIGHT...JUST IN
TIME FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO ARRIVE. AS THE TUES NIGHT-WED MORN LOW
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER DEEPER AND COLDER TROUGH
QUICKLY DIVES SE TOWARDS OUR REGION WED NIGHT. SLOWLY INCREASE POPS
FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE REALLY COLD AIR WILL WAIT
UNTIL THURSDAY TO FILTER IN...HOWEVER A RA/SN MIX MAY REACH OUR FAR
NWRN CWA VERY LATE WED NIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN RAIN SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE.

THANKSGIVING-FRIDAY...

CHILLY AND SNOWY FOR THE HOLIDAY?

THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD AND WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS FROM THE COLD UPPER TROUGH SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. ANY
PRECIP FROM THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT GIVEN ITS
STRENGTH WE SHOULD GET SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. JUST HAVE
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH IN THE MORNING AND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AS EVEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE TURKEY DAY.
ACTUALLY THINK THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MIXING IN WILL BE
LATE IN THE DAY. GOOD DAY TO STAY IN AS HIGHS WILL NOT BE ABOVE THE
MID 40S.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IS LIKELY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES JUST TO OUR NE AND WE REMAIN IN A COLD NW
FLOW. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BELOW 1300M AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AS
LOW AS 950MB YIELD ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S. HOWEVER...WARM GROUNDS SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM STICKING
TO THE GROUND...THOUGH SLICK SPOTS WILL DEVELOP LATE THANKSGIVING
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SO BE CAREFUL IF YOU HEAD OUT TO SHOP
FRIDAY MORNING. SLICK SPOTS AND CHILLY TEMPS WILL NOT LEAD TO THE
BEST TRAVEL WEATHER FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR BLACK FRIDAY...A COLD NNW FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES MAY KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
TAPER THOSE OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRI-FRI NIGHT. AGAIN...NO ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED. WENT ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR TEMPS WITH UPPER 30S
NE TO LOW 40S SW...BUT RAW GFS NUMBERS SUGGEST EVEN COLDER TEMPS.
GUSTY NW WINDS OF 25MPH WILL CREATE SUB-FREEZING WIND CHILLS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE
LOW 30S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
12Z THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH 18Z AND THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF SHOWER.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........LS
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 230536
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1236 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING THAT WILL ONLY BE
REFLECTED WITH MINOR CHANGES IN THE ZONES. CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF H5 LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF KENTUCKY WITH
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REMAINING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE WITH SOME BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING
OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWER LEVELS ARE REMAINING DRY DUE TO 20 TO
30 KNOT 925 - 850 MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAKE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HARD TO COME BY AND WILL REMAIN
WITH LOW POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS
DAWN...FOCUS SHIFTS TO ANOTHER APPROACHING H5 WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE
SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z
AND WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS DURING THIS TIME. STILL
FEEL 40 PERCENT COVERAGE WILL BE REASONABLE SO WILL LET PREVIOUS
FORECAST RIDE.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE ZONES WILL DEAL WITH CURRENT TD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. STILL FEEL MID 40S IS PRETTY REASONABLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S...HAVE LOWERED THESE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE/ CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO
VALLEY REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR
PERHAPS MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND
12Z GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION...KICKING OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AMPLE MOISTURE AND LOWER IFR TO MVFR
CIGS TO OUR SOUTH WILL ROTATE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TN VALLEY
REGION...DROPPING CIGS ACROSS OUR AREA AS WELL AROUND THE EARLY
MORNING...DAWN TIME FRAME. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE KENTUCKY...
VIRGINIA...AND TENNESSEE STATE LINE HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO
REALIZE IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT FOG WILL BECOME AN ISSUE
MONDAY EVENING WITH STRATUS BUILDING DOWN...LOWERING VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR RANGE LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER/RAY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 230432
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1132 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH MONDAY.  AS IT DOES...SCT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KY AND THE
BLUEGRASS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE IT/S
WAY INTO CLINTON...CUMBERLAND...AND MONROE COUNTIES AS OF 1945Z THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THESE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN KY TONIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
BLUEGRASS AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  SCT PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING IT/S
RETREAT NE OUT OF THE AREA.  MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.  TOMORROW EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THAN TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

DEPARTING SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF U.S. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT H5
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GET
RE-ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL WAVE
DROPS INTO THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN.  12HR CHANGE MAPS
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM
ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NEARLY VERTICAL
STACKED SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE RUSHES SOUTHEAST AND
HELPS CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  MAIN QUESTION STILL OUT THOUGH...IS HOW STRONG WILL THIS
SECOND TROUGH BE?  THE 12Z OP GFS SOLUTION IS STRONGER WHICH IN
EFFECT DEVELOPS A MUCH DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH.  THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
IS NOT AS DEEP AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY AGREES
QUITE WELL WITH THE 12Z EURO RUN.  NONETHELESS...THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WHICH RESULT IN COLDER WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FCST...VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY.  DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW WILL ALLOW AN MODERATE INFLUX OF
MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER GFS
SOLUTION AND OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION FROM THE EURO...BEST POP
CHANCES ON TUES WILL BE WEST OF I-65 WHERE WE WILL HAVE SLGT TO CHC
POPS.  AS THE SYSTEM ROLLS EAST POP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.  A SLOT OF DRY AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT IN A TEMPORALLY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AND THU...PRECIPITATION CHCS LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  THANKSGIVING DAY 2009 LOOKS TO BE VERY
CLOUDY AND COLD AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WERE QUITE LOW IN THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS
SUGGESTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THOUGH THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS WARMED
SLIGHTLY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PREDOMINANCE OF LIQUID
RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES.  CRITICAL
THICKNESSES FALL RAPIDLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT SO SNOW SHOWERS SEEM
MORE LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
IN THE FAR SOUTH.  SIMILAR TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IF THE DRYSLOT GETS IN HERE AND WE SEE A LITTLE
CLEARING.  GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE 2M RAW GFS TEMPS HERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WED
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  AS SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT...TEMPS WILL REALLY COOL OFF WITH
LOWS THU MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THU NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

BY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ABOUND AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY.  OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT GENERALLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-75 SHOULD GET IN THE ACTION.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TRAVEL MAY BE A BIT TRICKY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH THE HOLIDAY AND SHOPPING TRAFFIC.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WE EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS THROUGH
12Z THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH 18Z AND THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF SHOWER.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JA

000
FXUS63 KJKL 230320
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
943 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING THAT WILL ONLY BE
REFLECTED WITH MINOR CHANGES IN THE ZONES. CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF H5 LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF KENTUCKY WITH
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REMAINING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE WITH SOME BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING
OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWER LEVELS ARE REMAINING DRY DUE TO 20 TO
30 KNOT 925 - 850 MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAKE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HARD TO COME BY AND WILL REMAIN
WITH LOW POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS
DAWN...FOCUS SHIFTS TO ANOTHER APPROACHING H5 WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE
SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z
AND WILL START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS DURING THIS TIME. STILL
FEEL 40 PERCENT COVERAGE WILL BE REASONABLE SO WILL LET PREVIOUS
FORECAST RIDE.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE ZONES WILL DEAL WITH CURRENT TD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. STILL FEEL MID 40S IS PRETTY REASONABLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S...HAVE LOWERED THESE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN
PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE/ CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO
VALLEY REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR
PERHAPS MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND
12Z GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

A MID LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS KICKED OFF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY DESPITE CIGS ABOVE 8 K FEET.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL
NOT FORECAST BELOW MVFR AT THIS POINT. SHOULD GET A LITTLE BIT OF
HELP AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERY LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TAF SITES OUT OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCATION NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER WITH VIRGINIA
OR WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO
MVFR AROUND DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE
AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO HANGING IN TOMORROW. CIGS SHOULD
HANG RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

...CORRECTED SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECASTER NAMES...

000
FXUS63 KJKL 230243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
943 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES IN THE GRIDS THIS EVENING THAT WILL ONLY BE
REFLECTED WITH MINOR CHANGES IN THE ZONES. CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF H5 LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF KENTUCKY WITH
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS REMAINING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE WITH SOME BETTER COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN SKIRTING
OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWER LEVELS ARE REMAINING DRY DUE TO 20 TO
30 KNOT 925 - 850 MB SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS DOWNSLOPING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MAKE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HARD TO COME BY AND WILL REMAIN
WITH LOW POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS DAWN...FOCUS
SHIFTS TO ANOTHER APPROACHING H5 WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIFT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 Z AND WILL START TO
SEE AN INCREASE IN POPS DURING THIS TIME. STILL FEEL 40 PERCENT
COVERAGE WILL BE REASONABLE SO WILL LET PREVIOUS FORECAST RIDE.

MAIN CHANGES TO THE ZONES WILL DEAL WITH CURRENT TD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. STILL FEEL MID 40S IS PRETTY REASONABLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH THE EASTERN VALLEYS ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S...HAVE LOWERED THESE HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE/
CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO VALLEY
REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR PERHAPS
MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND 12Z
GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

A MID LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS KICKED OFF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY DESPITE CIGS ABOVE 8 K FEET.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL
NOT FORECAST BELOW MVFR AT THIS POINT. SHOULD GET A LITTLE BIT OF
HELP AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERY LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TAF SITES OUT OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCATION NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER WITH VIRGINIA
OR WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO
MVFR AROUND DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE
AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO HANGING IN TOMORROW. CIGS SHOULD
HANG RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP/SCHOETTMER
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

000
FXUS63 KPAH 230232
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
830 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PUBLIC DISCUSSION TO REMOVE SLGT/LOW CHC POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT/MONDAY AND TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER/TEMPS TONIGHT. NO
CHANGE TO AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH FORMERLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS LEAVING ALL BUT EXTREME
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY DROP BELOW FCST OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN SOME INSTANCES. LOW CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF PRIMARY GULF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS WELL...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM COOLING MUCH MORE AND LIKELY RISING A BIT TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...SAW NO REASON TO KEEP POPS IN SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS WITH
WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
NECESSARY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z-09Z MONDAY...AS
MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AND SHIFT
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK
BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AGL OVER KCGI/KPAH BY 13Z MONDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

AD/DH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 222328
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE/
CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO VALLEY
REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR PERHAPS
MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND 12Z
GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

A MID LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE HAS KICKED OFF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY DESPITE CIGS ABOVE 8 K FEET.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WILL
NOT FORECAST BELOW MVFR AT THIS POINT. SHOULD GET A LITTLE BIT OF
HELP AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERY LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TAF SITES OUT OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY LOCATION NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER WITH VIRGINIA
OR WEST VIRGINIA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD STAY VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING TO
MVFR AROUND DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS INTO THE AREA WITH DRIZZLE
AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALSO HANGING IN TOMORROW. CIGS SHOULD
HANG RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER

000
FXUS63 KLMK 222314
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
614 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH MONDAY.  AS IT DOES...SCT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KY AND THE
BLUEGRASS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE IT/S
WAY INTO CLINTON...CUMBERLAND...AND MONROE COUNTIES AS OF 1945Z THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THESE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN KY TONIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
BLUEGRASS AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  SCT PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING IT/S
RETREAT NE OUT OF THE AREA.  MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.  TOMORROW EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THAN TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

DEPARTING SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF U.S. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT H5
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GET
RE-ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL WAVE
DROPS INTO THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN.  12HR CHANGE MAPS
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM
ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NEARLY VERTICAL
STACKED SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE RUSHES SOUTHEAST AND
HELPS CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  MAIN QUESTION STILL OUT THOUGH...IS HOW STRONG WILL THIS
SECOND TROUGH BE?  THE 12Z OP GFS SOLUTION IS STRONGER WHICH IN
EFFECT DEVELOPS A MUCH DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH.  THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
IS NOT AS DEEP AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY AGREES
QUITE WELL WITH THE 12Z EURO RUN.  NONETHELESS...THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WHICH RESULT IN COLDER WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FCST...VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY.  DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW WILL ALLOW AN MODERATE INFLUX OF
MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER GFS
SOLUTION AND OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION FROM THE EURO...BEST POP
CHANCES ON TUES WILL BE WEST OF I-65 WHERE WE WILL HAVE SLGT TO CHC
POPS.  AS THE SYSTEM ROLLS EAST POP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.  A SLOT OF DRY AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT IN A TEMPORALLY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AND THU...PRECIPITATION CHCS LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  THANKSGIVING DAY 2009 LOOKS TO BE VERY
CLOUDY AND COLD AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WERE QUITE LOW IN THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS
SUGGESTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THOUGH THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS WARMED
SLIGHTLY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PREDOMINANCE OF LIQUID
RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES.  CRITICAL
THICKNESSES FALL RAPIDLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT SO SNOW SHOWERS SEEM
MORE LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
IN THE FAR SOUTH.  SIMILAR TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IF THE DRYSLOT GETS IN HERE AND WE SEE A LITTLE
CLEARING.  GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE 2M RAW GFS TEMPS HERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WED
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  AS SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT...TEMPS WILL REALLY COOL OFF WITH
LOWS THU MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THU NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

BY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ABOUND AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY.  OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT GENERALLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-75 SHOULD GET IN THE ACTION.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TRAVEL MAY BE A BIT TRICKY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH THE HOLIDAY AND SHOPPING TRAFFIC.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH
GEORGIA WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR LOWERING CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL SEE CIGS
DROP INTO THE LOW MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE NOTED.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JA

000
FXUS63 KLMK 222015
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH MONDAY.  AS IT DOES...SCT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN KY AND THE
BLUEGRASS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  PRECIP HAS ALREADY MADE IT/S
WAY INTO CLINTON...CUMBERLAND...AND MONROE COUNTIES AS OF 1945Z THIS
AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THESE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN KY TONIGHT...AND THEN INTO THE
BLUEGRASS AREA BY MONDAY MORNING.  SCT PRECIP WILL HANG AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING IT/S
RETREAT NE OUT OF THE AREA.  MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S.  TOMORROW EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THAN TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

DEPARTING SFC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF U.S. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT H5
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GET
RE-ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL WAVE
DROPS INTO THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN.  12HR CHANGE MAPS
BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM
ROLLING INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  NEARLY VERTICAL
STACKED SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE RUSHES SOUTHEAST AND
HELPS CARVE OUT A LARGER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  MAIN QUESTION STILL OUT THOUGH...IS HOW STRONG WILL THIS
SECOND TROUGH BE?  THE 12Z OP GFS SOLUTION IS STRONGER WHICH IN
EFFECT DEVELOPS A MUCH DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH.  THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE
IS NOT AS DEEP AND IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY AGREES
QUITE WELL WITH THE 12Z EURO RUN.  NONETHELESS...THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WHICH RESULT IN COLDER WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS OUR REGION.

AS FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FCST...VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW AND
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON TUESDAY.  DEEP/STRONG SW FLOW WILL ALLOW AN MODERATE INFLUX OF
MILD AIR INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER GFS
SOLUTION AND OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION FROM THE EURO...BEST POP
CHANCES ON TUES WILL BE WEST OF I-65 WHERE WE WILL HAVE SLGT TO CHC
POPS.  AS THE SYSTEM ROLLS EAST POP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.  A SLOT OF DRY AIR LOOKS TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT IN A TEMPORALLY LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST LATE WED
AND THU...PRECIPITATION CHCS LOOK TO RAMP BACK UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  THANKSGIVING DAY 2009 LOOKS TO BE VERY
CLOUDY AND COLD AS MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED PRECIPITATION.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES WERE QUITE LOW IN THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS
SUGGESTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THOUGH THE 12Z GFS RUN HAS WARMED
SLIGHTLY AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A PREDOMINANCE OF LIQUID
RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW OR SLEET MIXED IN AT TIMES.  CRITICAL
THICKNESSES FALL RAPIDLY THANKSGIVING NIGHT SO SNOW SHOWERS SEEM
MORE LIKELY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE LOWER-MID 50S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
IN THE FAR SOUTH.  SIMILAR TEMPS LOOK ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY IF THE DRYSLOT GETS IN HERE AND WE SEE A LITTLE
CLEARING.  GENERALLY STUCK CLOSE TO THE 2M RAW GFS TEMPS HERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WED
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  AS SFC LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASS THROUGH WED NIGHT...TEMPS WILL REALLY COOL OFF WITH
LOWS THU MORNING DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH HIGHS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NORTH AND
LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.  LOWS THU NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

BY FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ABOUND AND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY.  OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT GENERALLY AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-75 SHOULD GET IN THE ACTION.  TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY SO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TRAVEL MAY BE A BIT TRICKY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
EXPECTED COLD TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH THE HOLIDAY AND SHOPPING TRAFFIC.
BY SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IS FCST TO PULL OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND H5
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SAT/SUN.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS
COLD WILL NOT LAST LONG IN OUR REGION.  HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE NE TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.  FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S IN THE NE WITH LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF STATES TODAY WILL
IMPACT THE REGION.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG
SIDE THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH TOMORROW.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...THIS
WILL MEAN INCREASED MID-UPPER CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES.  AFTER 4-6Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME VCSH AT BWG AND LEX.  PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE AND VERY SCT.  WILL NOT INCLUDE VCSH AT
SDF AT THIS TIME AS BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.  IN ADDITION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AT SOME RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
LIGHT MVFR BR AFTER 8Z.  LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE BETTER LL MOISTURE.

EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL TURN MORE SE TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........AML

000
FXUS63 KJKL 222001
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500HPA ANALYSIS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF
A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY. A SMALL
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAINFALL AND SPRINKLES IS MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF AFD ISSUANCE. WITH CLOUD BASES IN THAT GENERALLY ABOVE 8K...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR 10-15 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE...QUITE A BIT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND. AS IT STANDS IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL COME AROUND 6Z TONIGHT ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR DAYS
1 AND 2 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THEN UP
THE EAST COAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL INTERACT
WITH THE EXISTING WEAK TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS WERE ALREADY IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE ABOVE
FORECAST ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED TRENDS AND THE LATEST MOS
DATA. TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A GENERAL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE LATEST MAV AND METMOS NUMBERS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTING AMONGST THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM
MODELS...GFS...NAM12...SREF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...DECIDED IT WOULD BE
BEST NOT TO MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A
100 TO 120KT 300 MB JET AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A TROUGH THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE/
CLOSED LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PIVOT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS VALLEY/MO VALLEY
REGION. THIS UPPER LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST INTO FRI AND SAT AND REACH THE APPALACHIANS OR PERHAPS
MID ATLANTIC STATES PER THE QUICKER GFS BY FRI EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...0Z GFS AND 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF WERE A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IT MORE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN. IN ADDITION THE 6Z AND 12Z
GFS ARE A BIT FASTER THAN THE 0Z ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...OPTED FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY THAN THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS
WOULD SUGGEST...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE
0Z ECMWF OR LINE WITH HPC PROGS. THIS RESULTS IN COLDER AIR MOVING
IN A BIT LATER FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SLOWER THREAT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. MODELS HINT AT A PERIOD
OF DRY SLOTTING OR LESS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DURING MUCH OF
THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. BASED ON COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...TEMPS
COULD FALL DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING OR AT LEAST FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS IN THE
EAST...AS THE COLDER AIR INVADES THE WEST A BIT QUICKER BEHIND THE
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY COLD FRONT.

ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY FRONT LATE WED NIGHT/THU. THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIFT. 8H
TEMPS SHOULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 0C AND 1000-850 THICKNESSES
SHOULD DROP BELOW 1300...WITH 1000-500 THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 534
BY 12Z FRI. THIS AND THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD SERVE TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND BRING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON THU
EVENING AND PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRI EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DEPARTS...BUT COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ONCE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDING AND SFC RIDGING SHOULD BUILD TOWARD THE
AREA STARTING ON FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OPTED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE IN THE WX
GRIDS AND BROUGHT IN SNOW SHOWERS ON THU NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR
INVADES. THE CURRENTLY PROGGED THICKNESSES AND TEMPS SUPPORT ALL
SNOW FOR ANY PRECIP BY LATE THU NIGHT...THOUGH WARMING TEMPS DURING
THE DAY SHOULD LEAD TO ANY PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN IN VALLEYS AND
RAIN OR SNOW ON RIDGES BY FRI PM. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER TO
MOVE THE UPPER LOW EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY FRI SOMEWHAT
TOWARD THE QUICKER GFS...SO OPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR SAT...THOUGH A
LINGERING FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE EARLY.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM SAT THROUGH SUN...AS THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT PERSIST FOR THAT LONG AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 3Z OR SO AS MIDDLE AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACTUAL SKY OBSERVATION AT THE OFFICE REVEAL
THAT THE CLOUDS ARE LOWERING AND THICKENING MORE SLOWLY THAN WHAT WAS
REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS TAF GRIDS. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT AT TAF
ISSUANCE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS HAD
OVERSPREAD THE SKIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...WITH BASES AROUND 15K.
THIS SLOWER LOWERING TREND OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS INCORPORATED INTO
THE 18Z TAF. THE FIRST MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT LOZ AND
SME UNTIL AFTER 5Z...AND AFTER 6Z AT JKL...WHEN CIGS OF 2-3K ARE
EXPECTED. THE FIRST RAIN DROPS WILL NOT BE OBSERVED AT THE TAF SITES
UNTIL BETWEEN 5 AND 8Z...AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE IS TOO DRY TO
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET. WILL AMEND TAF AS NECESSARY IF ABOVE CONDITIONS
CHANGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS63 KPAH 222001
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE SHORTER TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/ CONTINUED
TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FOR
CLOUDS/WINDS/POP/WEATHER.

A MINOR CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FORT CAMPBELL KENTUCKY AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG THE NORTHERN
LIMIT OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING LOW OVER
MS AT THIS TIME. KEPT THIS SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN ANY
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS MONDAY AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NE
AND ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE NW.

THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAINS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MOST OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW HINT AT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE AND
PRECIP SEEMS TO DECREASE AS THE H50 LOW WEAKENS AND OPENS UP DURING
THE DAY. WILL KEEP LOW END LIKELY POPS GOING ALONG/WEST OF THE MS
RVR...BUT WILL HOLD IN THE CHC CATEGORY FURTHER EAST. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS...SO WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT AND CARRY SOME
RAIN CHCS INTO THE EVENING OVER ERN AREAS.

THIS INITIAL FRONT WILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
IN FOR WED...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR
DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH JUST IN TIME FOR
THANKSGIVING. CLOUDS WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC H85 FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S FOR THE HOLIDAY.
IN FACT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY OVER
CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS OF SE IL AND SW IN. WILL INTRO SMALL
CHC FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. PRECIP TYPE WOULD
BE DETERMINED BY THERMO PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 1500 FT...WHERE TEMPS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER WAY...SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
MUCH QPF WISE. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER SOME LOCATIONS UP ALONG
THE I 64 CORRIDOR SEE THEIR FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON.

SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD GET UNDERWAY TOWARD THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z-09Z MONDAY...AS
MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AND SHIFT
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK
BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AGL OVER KCGI/KPAH BY 13Z MONDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

MEFFERT/SMITH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221734
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1234 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

INGESTED HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WINDS TO SEE IF FORECAST FOR THOSE
ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK. TO THIS POINT OF THE MORNING THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE MADE WAS TO
THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...WHERE THE WORDING FOR THE TODAY
PERIOD WAS FRESHENED UP A BIT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIME...BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...WITH MAINLY SFC DETAILS...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO PREFERRED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
WHICH SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL THAN RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EVENTUALLY EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TO GIVE OUR ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST A CHANCE
AT SEEING SOME RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
TODAY...EVERYWHERE ELSE BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE...I.E. LOW QPF.

THAT BEING SAID...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TONIGHT OPENING UP INTO A WAVE WITH TIME. AN ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY MONDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF RAIN GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SOMETIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA RATHER
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO RETARD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPS...WITH MOST NOTICEABLE AFFECTS REALIZED IN
OUR MORE SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT FOR
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THEN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC
WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING OUT IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE TN STATE
LINE...AROUND 40 JUST NORTH OF THERE. LIGHT RAIN WILL FOLLOW...BUT
ONLY GRADUALLY. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE AMPLE
ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING...WITH
EXPECTED DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER MAY HAMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE TWO KEY TROUGHS
AFFECTING THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHERN ONE OVER
MISSOURI IS THE STRONGER AND DEEPER ONE THAT IS CLOSED OFF AND
DESTINED TO SCOOT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS REPRESENTS THIS AS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...BUT THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH. IT IS THE SISTER
SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT BRINGS A LARGER DISCREPANCY TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING ITS CLOSING LOW FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...BY THURSDAY MORNING THEY ARE FAIRLY IN
SIMPATICO WITH THE DEEP...FULL LATITUDE...CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH THIS PROCESS THE ECMWF
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH ITS LOW CENTER THAN
THE GFS. THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH BOTH MODELS DEEPENING THE UPPER LOWS AND MOVING THEM TO
THE NORTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE ABOUT 24 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE NEW ECMWF AND BECOMES MUCH DEEPER. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND
THE TROUGH IS NOW DOMINATING THE EAST COAST WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
CLOSEST FOR THIS FORECAST GIVEN ITS LESS EXTREME SOLUTION AND BETTER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF THE FIRST UPPER LOW
SWEEPING INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH
ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST WILL SERVE TO PARK
THE PARENT SFC SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH FURTHER CONSOLIDATING AS IT SLOWLY EASES EAST AND PROVIDES
PROLONGED CAA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE REGION ACTIVATING THE
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR NEEDED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH ANY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MIX INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
SYSTEM/S WAKE TO LINGER THE THREAT OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN TO DRY US
BACK OUT AND RESTORE THE AREA TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MIX OF CONTINUITY...MEX NUMBERS AND THE MOSGUIDE
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SOME ELEVATIONAL BASED
ADJUSTMENTS...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CONSIDERING OUR RECENT TROUBLE
GETTING PCPN IN HERE...BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 3Z OR SO AS MIDDLE AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN. THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACTUAL SKY OBSERVATION AT THE OFFICE REVEAL
THAT THE CLOUDS ARE LOWERING AND THICKENING MORE SLOWLY THAN WHAT WAS
REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS TAF GRIDS. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT AT TAF
ISSUANCE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYER OF ALTOSTRATUS CLOUDS HAD
OVERSPREAD THE SKIES AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...WITH BASES AROUND 15K.
THIS SLOWER LOWERING TREND OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS INCORPORATED INTO
THE 18Z TAF. THE FIRST MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT LOZ AND
SME UNTIL AFTER 5Z...AND AFTER 6Z AT JKL...WHEN CIGS OF 2-3K ARE
EXPECTED. THE FIRST RAIN DROPS WILL NOT BE OBSERVED AT THE TAF SITES
UNTIL BETWEEN 5 AND 8Z...AS AN AREA OF RAIN MOVES VERY SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR BELOW CLOUD BASE IS TOO DRY TO
ALLOW ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNSET. WILL AMEND TAF AS NECESSARY IF ABOVE CONDITIONS
CHANGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/AR
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...AR

000
FXUS63 KPAH 221731 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1131 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
FIRST PERIOD /TODAY/ ADJUSTMENTS AND 18Z SUNDAY ROUTINE TAF
ISSUANCE DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REFINED CLOUD COVER...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
WEATHER TRENDS. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES WITH THIS MORNINGS UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z-09Z MONDAY...AS
MIDDLE/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AND SHIFT NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF THE EXITING UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SCATTERED/BROKEN DECK
BETWEEN 1500-2000 FT AGL OVER KCGI/KPAH BY 13Z MONDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE...MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST ISSUANCE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SMITH

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1220 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING.  TWEAKED SKY COVER UP A BIT
SINCE CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY COVERED MOST OF THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPTS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS.  20-30% POPS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TODAY WILL BEING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE MID
TN/APPALACHIANS REGION. WHILE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND SPC WRF
BOTH INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. EXPECT THAT SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PROMINENT DURING THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THANKSGIVING...

BY MONDAY THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NE JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ITS UPPER LOW WILL BE NE OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL/SWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN. HOWEVER A
RIPPLE IN THIS FLOW IS GENERATING VERY LARGE POPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SO IT SEEMS LIKE A HIGH CHC FOR
LITTLE PRECIP. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SHORTWAVE PANNING
OUT...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS EAST (CLOSER TO OTHER ENERGY) AND SLIGHT
CHC POPS WEST FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS RIPPLE IS EAST OF
THE CWA SO KEPT MON NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW. IN THE QUICK SWRLY/ZONAL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
(AS EARLY AS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST) AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE CHC WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
JUST HAVE SLT CHC POPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND MOVING NNE OUT OF THE CWA.

THIS UPPER AND SFC LOW BOTH GET WRAPPED UP QUICKLY AND HEAD NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIVES SE FROM CANADA
TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE
REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE. BEING A STRONG
UPPER LOW...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE PRECIP TYPE IS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE HERE. THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS IN DURING THE DAY
ON THANKSGIVING...SO THINK PRECIP WILL START OFF AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN 500MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS
COULD GENERATE EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR A TRANSITION
OVER TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT COLDER NOW...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WILL JUST BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION AMPLE SUBFREEZING TEMPS PROGGED JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. EITHER WAY IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE VERY LIGHT PRECIP. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE RA/SN MIX WORDING FOR LATE TURKEY DAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPS...THANKSGIVING WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY MON-THRS
WITH THE COLD CANADIAN LOW OVERHEAD/PASSING THROUGH. WILL BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LOW 40S FOR THANKSGIVING.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR WITH UPPER LOWS
MOVING OVERHEAD BOTH DAYS...LOOKING AT LOW-MID 50S FOR HIGHS THESE
DAYS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THAT MARKS THE QUICK
TRANSITION IN BETWEEN UPPER LOWS AND A SHORT-LIVED SWRLY FLOW WILL
SET UP. LOOK FOR MID-UPPER 50S MOST PLACES...TO NEAR 60 SOUTH FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND EXPECTED. HIGHS FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. AGAIN THE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
DOWNWARD MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NE OUT OF THE GULF STATES TODAY WILL
IMPACT THE REGION.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG
SIDE THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THROUGH TOMORROW.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...THIS
WILL MEAN INCREASED MID-UPPER CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES.  AFTER 4-6Z
TONIGHT WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME VCSH AT BWG AND LEX.  PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN NATURE AND VERY SCT.  WILL NOT INCLUDE VCSH AT
SDF AT THIS TIME AS BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.  IN ADDITION TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AT SOME RAIN...LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
LIGHT MVFR BR AFTER 8Z.  LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE BETTER LL MOISTURE.

EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL TURN MORE SE TOWARD
TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........AML
SHORT TERM.....LS
LONG TERM......AL
AVIATION.......AML

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221609
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1109 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

INGESTED HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WINDS TO SEE IF FORECAST FOR THOSE
ELEMENTS WERE ON TRACK. TO THIS POINT OF THE MORNING THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL REMAIN SO FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE MADE WAS TO
THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...WHERE THE WORDING FOR THE TODAY
PERIOD WAS FRESHENED UP A BIT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIME...BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...WITH MAINLY SFC DETAILS...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO PREFERRED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
WHICH SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL THAN RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EVENTUALLY EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TO GIVE OUR ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST A CHANCE
AT SEEING SOME RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
TODAY...EVERYWHERE ELSE BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE...I.E. LOW QPF.

THAT BEING SAID...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TONIGHT OPENING UP INTO A WAVE WITH TIME. AN ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY MONDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF RAIN GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SOMETIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA RATHER
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO RETARD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPS...WITH MOST NOTICEABLE AFFECTS REALIZED IN
OUR MORE SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT FOR
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THEN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC
WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING OUT IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE TN STATE
LINE...AROUND 40 JUST NORTH OF THERE. LIGHT RAIN WILL FOLLOW...BUT
ONLY GRADUALLY. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE AMPLE
ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING...WITH
EXPECTED DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER MAY HAMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE TWO KEY TROUGHS
AFFECTING THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHERN ONE OVER
MISSOURI IS THE STRONGER AND DEEPER ONE THAT IS CLOSED OFF AND
DESTINED TO SCOOT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS REPRESENTS THIS AS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...BUT THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH. IT IS THE SISTER
SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT BRINGS A LARGER DISCREPANCY TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING ITS CLOSING LOW FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...BY THURSDAY MORNING THEY ARE FAIRLY IN
SIMPATICO WITH THE DEEP...FULL LATITUDE...CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH THIS PROCESS THE ECMWF
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH ITS LOW CENTER THAN
THE GFS. THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH BOTH MODELS DEEPENING THE UPPER LOWS AND MOVING THEM TO
THE NORTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE ABOUT 24 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE NEW ECMWF AND BECOMES MUCH DEEPER. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND
THE TROUGH IS NOW DOMINATING THE EAST COAST WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
CLOSEST FOR THIS FORECAST GIVEN ITS LESS EXTREME SOLUTION AND BETTER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF THE FIRST UPPER LOW
SWEEPING INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH
ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST WILL SERVE TO PARK
THE PARENT SFC SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH FURTHER CONSOLIDATING AS IT SLOWLY EASES EAST AND PROVIDES
PROLONGED CAA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE REGION ACTIVATING THE
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR NEEDED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH ANY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MIX INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
SYSTEM/S WAKE TO LINGER THE THREAT OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN TO DRY US
BACK OUT AND RESTORE THE AREA TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MIX OF CONTINUITY...MEX NUMBERS AND THE MOSGUIDE
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SOME ELEVATIONAL BASED
ADJUSTMENTS...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CONSIDERING OUR RECENT TROUBLE
GETTING PCPN IN HERE...BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...CIGS WILL
LOWER TO ABOUT 4K FEET ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...
FOR THIS...HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO EACH OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z...
STARTING IN THE SOUTH FIRST AND NORTH LAST. THE CIGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 3K FEET IN SHOWERS WITH MVFR VIS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY/AR
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221526
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1026 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...FORECAST UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THIS MORNING.  TWEAKED SKY COVER UP A BIT
SINCE CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY COVERED MOST OF THE REGION. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPTS BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS.  20-30% POPS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TODAY WILL BEING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE MID
TN/APPALACHIANS REGION. WHILE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND SPC WRF
BOTH INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. EXPECT THAT SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PROMINENT DURING THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THANKSGIVING...

BY MONDAY THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NE JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ITS UPPER LOW WILL BE NE OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL/SWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN. HOWEVER A
RIPPLE IN THIS FLOW IS GENERATING VERY LARGE POPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SO IT SEEMS LIKE A HIGH CHC FOR
LITTLE PRECIP. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SHORTWAVE PANNING
OUT...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS EAST (CLOSER TO OTHER ENERGY) AND SLIGHT
CHC POPS WEST FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS RIPPLE IS EAST OF
THE CWA SO KEPT MON NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW. IN THE QUICK SWRLY/ZONAL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
(AS EARLY AS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST) AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE CHC WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
JUST HAVE SLT CHC POPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND MOVING NNE OUT OF THE CWA.

THIS UPPER AND SFC LOW BOTH GET WRAPPED UP QUICKLY AND HEAD NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIVES SE FROM CANADA
TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE
REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE. BEING A STRONG
UPPER LOW...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE PRECIP TYPE IS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE HERE. THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS IN DURING THE DAY
ON THANKSGIVING...SO THINK PRECIP WILL START OFF AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN 500MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS
COULD GENERATE EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR A TRANSITION
OVER TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT COLDER NOW...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WILL JUST BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION AMPLE SUBFREEZING TEMPS PROGGED JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. EITHER WAY IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE VERY LIGHT PRECIP. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE RA/SN MIX WORDING FOR LATE TURKEY DAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPS...THANKSGIVING WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY MON-THRS
WITH THE COLD CANADIAN LOW OVERHEAD/PASSING THROUGH. WILL BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LOW 40S FOR THANKSGIVING.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR WITH UPPER LOWS
MOVING OVERHEAD BOTH DAYS...LOOKING AT LOW-MID 50S FOR HIGHS THESE
DAYS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THAT MARKS THE QUICK
TRANSITION IN BETWEEN UPPER LOWS AND A SHORT-LIVED SWRLY FLOW WILL
SET UP. LOOK FOR MID-UPPER 50S MOST PLACES...TO NEAR 60 SOUTH FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND EXPECTED. HIGHS FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. AGAIN THE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
DOWNWARD MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 5SM AT BWG AND SDF
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT BWG OR LEX EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........AML
SHORT TERM.....LS
LONG TERM......AL
AVIATION.......LS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 221149 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
549 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z SUNDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE PRESENTATION /SEE AVIATION SECTION/.

NO CHANGE TO DISCUSSION SECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN ON A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH...IS PRECLUDING FOG DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF ILLINOIS
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SHAWNEE HILLS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST WHICH WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE REDEVELOPING EAST OF THE CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS.

THE CLOSED 500MB SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
OPENING UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS AT
LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO VEERING AND SATURATION FROM ALOFT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS. RESTRICTED SLGT/LOW CHC POPS TO THE PENNYRILE AND EXTREME
EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
QUESTIONABLE AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN...SO EITHER WAY
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
KEPT CLOUDS MORE PREVALENT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP TEMPS
SUN/MON NIGHTS AND CUT MONDAYS HIGHS BY A COUPLE IN RESPONSE.

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOW SEEMED TO HAVE
SETTLED ON A SOLUTION...AT LEAST FOR THE QPF. AS FAR AS THE UPPER
LOW POSITION...MODELS SOLUTIONS STILL VARY GREATLY.
NONETHELESS...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR
WEST KENTUCKY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING DOWN OUT OF
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND DIVING DOWN INTO OUR AREA. IF ANY PRECIP
RESULTS FROM THIS WAVE...IT WILL BE UP NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64
CORRIDOR. THIS SYSTEM PIVOTS AROUND AND BRINGS A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL BE A
FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOME VERY COLD AIR WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. H85 TEMPS DROP DOWN INTO THE -5 TO -7 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WHICH COUPLED WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL YIELD A CHILLY DAY. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AND MODEL CONSISTENCY
HAS NOT BEEN THAT GREAT TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY POP AT
THIS TIME. WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON HOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE BEFORE ADDING POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OTHER THAN A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY
AT KEVV...VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 08Z
MONDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF CIRRUS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS EACH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN AND OVERCAST HIGH END
MIDDLE CLOUD DECKS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...MVFR VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 4-5 STATUTE MILES WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08-12Z MONDAY
AT EACH TAF SITE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SMITH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221140 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIME...BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...WITH MAINLY SFC DETAILS...BUT
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALSO PREFERRED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS
WHICH SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL THAN RAW MODEL DATA
WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST. EVENTUALLY EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY TO GIVE OUR ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST A CHANCE
AT SEEING SOME RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY
TODAY...EVERYWHERE ELSE BY LATE TONIGHT...AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE...I.E. LOW QPF.

THAT BEING SAID...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY...AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY TONIGHT OPENING UP INTO A WAVE WITH TIME. AN ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY MONDAY WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF RAIN GOING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SOMETIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA RATHER
QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO RETARD ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN TEMPS...WITH MOST NOTICEABLE AFFECTS REALIZED IN
OUR MORE SOUTHERN ZONES. WENT WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT FOR
HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...UNDERCUTTING MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN THE FAR SOUTH. EVEN THEN MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC
WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING OUT IN THE MID 30S ALONG THE TN STATE
LINE...AROUND 40 JUST NORTH OF THERE. LIGHT RAIN WILL FOLLOW...BUT
ONLY GRADUALLY. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY...MOISTURE SHOULD BE AMPLE
ENOUGH FOR EVERYONE TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME RAIN
TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN TOTALS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING...WITH
EXPECTED DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT SHORT WAVE RIDGING PREFERRED THE
WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER MAY HAMPER ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

THE MODELS START OUT IN DECENT AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH HAVE TWO KEY TROUGHS
AFFECTING THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION. THE SOUTHERN ONE OVER
MISSOURI IS THE STRONGER AND DEEPER ONE THAT IS CLOSED OFF AND
DESTINED TO SCOOT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS REPRESENTS THIS AS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NEW 00Z ECMWF...BUT THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH. IT IS THE SISTER
SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ONE
THAT BRINGS A LARGER DISCREPANCY TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING ITS CLOSING LOW FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THIS...BY THURSDAY MORNING THEY ARE FAIRLY IN
SIMPATICO WITH THE DEEP...FULL LATITUDE...CLOSED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST PIVOTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THROUGH THIS PROCESS THE ECMWF
IS LESS PROGRESSIVE AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH ITS LOW CENTER THAN
THE GFS. THIS DIFFERENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WITH BOTH MODELS DEEPENING THE UPPER LOWS AND MOVING THEM TO
THE NORTHEAST COAST...THOUGH THE GFS GETS THERE ABOUT 24 HOURS AHEAD
OF THE NEW ECMWF AND BECOMES MUCH DEEPER. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND
THE TROUGH IS NOW DOMINATING THE EAST COAST WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THE
CLOSEST FOR THIS FORECAST GIVEN ITS LESS EXTREME SOLUTION AND BETTER
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SFC REFLECTION OF THE FIRST UPPER LOW
SWEEPING INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY FOR MIDWEEK WITH
ITS INITIAL COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST WILL SERVE TO PARK
THE PARENT SFC SYSTEM IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THANKSGIVING
WITH FURTHER CONSOLIDATING AS IT SLOWLY EASES EAST AND PROVIDES
PROLONGED CAA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THIS...UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PACKETS WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE REGION ACTIVATING THE
LIMITED MOISTURE FOR NEEDED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN WITH ANY OF THE RAIN SHOWERS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AT NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A MIX INTO THE
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
SYSTEM/S WAKE TO LINGER THE THREAT OF PCPN INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN TO DRY US
BACK OUT AND RESTORE THE AREA TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE
END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MIX OF CONTINUITY...MEX NUMBERS AND THE MOSGUIDE
FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SOME ELEVATIONAL BASED
ADJUSTMENTS...PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE...CONSIDERING OUR RECENT TROUBLE
GETTING PCPN IN HERE...BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN. TOWARD MIDNIGHT...CIGS WILL
LOWER TO ABOUT 4K FEET ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS...
FOR THIS...HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO EACH OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 00Z...
STARTING IN THE SOUTH FIRST AND NORTH LAST. THE CIGS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 3K FEET IN SHOWERS WITH MVFR VIS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS OF MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
557 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TODAY WILL BEING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE MID
TN/APPALACHIANS REGION. WHILE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN INTO THE BLUEGRASS REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SREF AND SPC WRF
BOTH INDICATE THAT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS MAINLY AFTER 21Z. EXPECT THAT SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN DRY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE PROMINENT DURING THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...

MONDAY-THANKSGIVING...

BY MONDAY THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY NE JUST
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ITS UPPER LOW WILL BE NE OF OUR
AREA...ALLOWING FOR ZONAL/SWRLY FLOW ALOFT TO SET IN. HOWEVER A
RIPPLE IN THIS FLOW IS GENERATING VERY LARGE POPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
QPF AMOUNTS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE SO IT SEEMS LIKE A HIGH CHC FOR
LITTLE PRECIP. NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THIS SHORTWAVE PANNING
OUT...SO HAVE LOW CHC POPS EAST (CLOSER TO OTHER ENERGY) AND SLIGHT
CHC POPS WEST FOR MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THIS RIPPLE IS EAST OF
THE CWA SO KEPT MON NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED OVER ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW. IN THE QUICK SWRLY/ZONAL FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS...THE LOW WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
(AS EARLY AS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST) AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE CHC WORDING FOR NOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTH.
JUST HAVE SLT CHC POPS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD AND MOVING NNE OUT OF THE CWA.

THIS UPPER AND SFC LOW BOTH GET WRAPPED UP QUICKLY AND HEAD NORTH
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DIVES SE FROM CANADA
TOWARDS MISSOURI. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR TO THE
REGION JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE. BEING A STRONG
UPPER LOW...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE PRECIP TYPE IS
THE MAIN CHALLENGE HERE. THE COLDEST AIR FILTERS IN DURING THE DAY
ON THANKSGIVING...SO THINK PRECIP WILL START OFF AS LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE MAIN 500MB AXIS MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWA ON THE BACK SIDE. THIS
COULD GENERATE EITHER A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR A TRANSITION
OVER TO JUST SNOW SHOWERS LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...MODELS ARE COMING IN A BIT COLDER NOW...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES IT WILL JUST BE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
FOR THE BLUEGRASS REGION AMPLE SUBFREEZING TEMPS PROGGED JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. EITHER WAY IT ONLY LOOKS LIKE VERY LIGHT PRECIP. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE RA/SN MIX WORDING FOR LATE TURKEY DAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPS...THANKSGIVING WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY MON-THRS
WITH THE COLD CANADIAN LOW OVERHEAD/PASSING THROUGH. WILL BE
SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS WARMER THAN THE LOW 40S FOR THANKSGIVING.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR WITH UPPER LOWS
MOVING OVERHEAD BOTH DAYS...LOOKING AT LOW-MID 50S FOR HIGHS THESE
DAYS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY SINCE THAT MARKS THE QUICK
TRANSITION IN BETWEEN UPPER LOWS AND A SHORT-LIVED SWRLY FLOW WILL
SET UP. LOOK FOR MID-UPPER 50S MOST PLACES...TO NEAR 60 SOUTH FOR
HIGHS TUESDAY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL
LOWS LOOK TO PULL OUT QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND EXPECTED. HIGHS FRIDAY/SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S-LOWER
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. AGAIN THE RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE IS COOLER AND THE TREND IS COOLER...SO FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
DOWNWARD MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO AROUND 5SM AT BWG AND SDF
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. EXPECT
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
AT BWG OR LEX EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........LS
LONG TERM.........AL
AVIATION..........LS