[top]
000
FXUS63 KLMK 090443
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW AS A COOL
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MONDAY
MORNING AS IDA NEARS THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 40S IN SHELTERED AREAS. DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
A COUPLE OF ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST. THE FIRST WILL CENTER AROUND
THE TRACK AND NORTHERN EXTEND OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE IDA. THE GFS
HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE KENTUCKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
THE NAM KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SO
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WE WILL HOLD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN UPPED TO THE
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND THEN SHIFTING THE SYSTEM
NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME THE GFS IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND WE WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS THESE CLOSED
LOWS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AS THE REMNANT OF IDA MOVES INTO THE CAROLINA`S. A VERY DRY AND COOL
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
AND HURRICANE IDA OVER THE GULF. A BKN DECK OF 18-25KFT CLOUDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BLANKET BWG AND SDF BY 15-18Z MONDAY. EVEN SOME SCATTERED
CU AROUND 5-6KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR BWG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY 5-10KTS...BECOMING EASTERLY LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........EES
LONG TERM.........JA
AVIATION..........AL
[top]
000
FXUS63 KJKL 082328
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
628 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES STRETCHING BACK INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS KEPT
THE CLOUDS AT BAY AND THE WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S NEARLY EVERYWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...STAYED UP FAIRLY WELL AND NOW RESIDE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EAST AND LOW TO MID 40S WEST...KEEPING THE AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE FINALLY MOVING EAST IN THE FACE OF A BROAD
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO
PICK UP IDA BY LATE MONDAY AS SHE BECOMES MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE MOST SIMILAR NAM AND LATEST ECMWF WITH THESE FEATURES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT WILL CAP THE BEST COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY AND AS A RESULT HIGHS MONDAY
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF THE LOFTY READINGS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES...THIS ONE LAST GUARANTEED DRY DAY MAY NOT
BE IDEAL FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS ANTICIPATED AND
ALSO LOW TRANSPORT WINDS HINDERING THE SMOKE DISPERSAL. ANY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM THE REMAINS OF IDA WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT...AT THE EARLIEST.
AS FOR TEMPS...FOLLOWED A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXPECTED LATE INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. RAN HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW WHAT WE
WILL TOP OUT WITH TODAY ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS PLACING US MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS THAN THE MAV. POPS WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH THE MAJOR CHALLENGE OF A POTENT AND
POORLY MODELED WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE REMAINS OF IDA GET ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ENTERING THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY SWEEPS EAST.
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COMES MAINLY FROM THE AMPLIFICATION SEEN IN
THE GFS AS THE PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PICKS THIS UP AND
TURNS THE WHOLE MESS INTO A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS RATHER THAN KEEPING SOME
SEPARATION TO THE STREAMS AS THE OTHER MODELS DO. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE GFS IS MOST ADAMANT ABOUT CLOSING OF THIS...MORE
NORTHERLY...CIRCULATION NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...THE NEW ECMWF AND NAM KEEPS THIS AS A
SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW THAT DRIFTS MORE EAST THAN NORTH INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HAVE DISCOUNTED MUCH OF THE GFS PHASING SCENARIO IN FAVOR OF
A BLENDING OF THE NAM INTO THE NEW ECMWF.
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND REMNANTS SKIRTING EAST ON
THURSDAY...RIDGING WILL THEN SEEP IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS RIDGING THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE A DEEP TROUGH OF SOME EXTENT...
STRONGEST IN THE GFS...CROSSES THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS DO AGREE
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND THAT THIS TROUGH WORKS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHTS LOWER. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALOFT
WITH A HEAVIER LEAN ON THE ECMWF FROM 00Z LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE LIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL JUST BRUSH
EAST KENTUCKY AS IT PASSES. WITH THIS...ANY HEAVY RAINS AND THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH MUCH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FOUND TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH EAST KENTUCKY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING SFC LOW...NORTH WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES COOLER ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THIS MODERATING HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF THE THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURES SPLIT TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WILL NECESSITATE A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.
FOLLOWED THE HPC NUMBERS CLOSEST THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS AT NIGHT. AS FOR POPS ENDED UP
BELOW BOTH THE MET AND MAV MOS EARLY ON WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMAINS OF IDA...ALSO STAYED LOWER THAN THE MEX FOR THE RAIN CHANCES
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST RIDGING WEST INTO THE TN
AND OH VALLEYS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY THROUGH
MONDAY. AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY ON MONDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON MONDAY.
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM CALM TO VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...SBH
000
FXUS63 KLMK 082322
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
622 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW AS A COOL
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MONDAY
MORNING AS IDA NEARS THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 40S IN SHELTERED AREAS. DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
A COUPLE OF ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST. THE FIRST WILL CENTER AROUND
THE TRACK AND NORTHERN EXTEND OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE IDA. THE GFS
HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE KENTUCKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
THE NAM KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SO
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WE WILL HOLD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN UPPED TO THE
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND THEN SHIFTING THE SYSTEM
NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME THE GFS IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND WE WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS THESE CLOSED
LOWS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AS THE REMNANT OF IDA MOVES INTO THE CAROLINA`S. A VERY DRY AND COOL
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A BKN DECK OF
18-25KFT CLOUDS REACHING BWG AND SDF BY 18Z MONDAY. EVEN SOME
SCATTERED CU AROUND 5-6KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 00Z TUESDAY
ESPECIALLY AT BWG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT...BUT WILL PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY BY
15-16Z AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND LOW
PRESSURE FROM IDA PUSHES NORTH INTO THE GULF.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........EES
LONG TERM.........JA
AVIATION..........AL
000
FXUS63 KJKL 082045 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES STRETCHING BACK INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS KEPT
THE CLOUDS AT BAY AND THE WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S NEARLY EVERYWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...STAYED UP FAIRLY WELL AND NOW RESIDE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S EAST AND LOW TO MID 40S WEST...KEEPING THE AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE FINALLY MOVING EAST IN THE FACE OF A BROAD
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH DOES APPEAR TO
PICK UP IDA BY LATE MONDAY AS SHE BECOMES MORE EXTRA-TROPICAL. HAVE
FOLLOWED THE MOST SIMILAR NAM AND LATEST ECMWF WITH THESE FEATURES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT IN THE EASTERN
VALLEYS AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT WILL CAP THE BEST COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THESE CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY AND AS A RESULT HIGHS MONDAY
WILL LIKELY FALL SHORT OF THE LOFTY READINGS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES...THIS ONE LAST GUARANTEED DRY DAY MAY NOT
BE IDEAL FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS ANTICIPATED AND
ALSO LOW TRANSPORT WINDS HINDERING THE SMOKE DISPERSAL. ANY LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM THE REMAINS OF IDA WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY NIGHT...AT THE EARLIEST.
AS FOR TEMPS...FOLLOWED A MODIFIED PERSISTENCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOMMODATE THE EXPECTED LATE INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS. RAN HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW WHAT WE
WILL TOP OUT WITH TODAY ALSO DUE TO THE CLOUDS PLACING US MORE IN
LINE WITH THE MET NUMBERS THAN THE MAV. POPS WERE KEPT NEAR ZERO
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH THE MAJOR CHALLENGE OF A POTENT AND
POORLY MODELED WEATHER SITUATION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE REMAINS OF IDA GET ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
ENTERING THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLOWLY SWEEPS EAST.
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COMES MAINLY FROM THE AMPLIFICATION SEEN IN
THE GFS AS THE PASSING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PICKS THIS UP AND
TURNS THE WHOLE MESS INTO A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS RATHER THAN KEEPING SOME
SEPARATION TO THE STREAMS AS THE OTHER MODELS DO. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE GFS IS MOST ADAMANT ABOUT CLOSING OF THIS...MORE
NORTHERLY...CIRCULATION NEAR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...THE NEW ECMWF AND NAM KEEPS THIS AS A
SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW THAT DRIFTS MORE EAST THAN NORTH INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HAVE DISCOUNTED MUCH OF THE GFS PHASING SCENARIO IN FAVOR OF
A BLENDING OF THE NAM INTO THE NEW ECMWF.
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW AND REMNANTS SKIRTING EAST ON
THURSDAY...RIDGING WILL THEN SEEP IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THIS RIDGING THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE A DEEP TROUGH OF SOME EXTENT...
STRONGEST IN THE GFS...CROSSES THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MODELS DO AGREE
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND THAT THIS TROUGH WORKS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHTS LOWER. HAVE FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION ALOFT
WITH A HEAVIER LEAN ON THE ECMWF FROM 00Z LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE LIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL JUST BRUSH
EAST KENTUCKY AS IT PASSES. WITH THIS...ANY HEAVY RAINS AND THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH MUSH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FOUND TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH EAST KENTUCKY ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING SFC LOW...NORTH WINDS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THIS MODERATING HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF THE THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURES SPLIT TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WILL NECESSITATE A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.
FOLLOWED THE HPC NUMBERS CLOSEST THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS AT NIGHT. AS FOR POPS ENDED UP
BELOW BOTH THE MET AND MAV MOS EARLY ON WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMAINS OF IDA AND THEN ALSO STAYED LOWER THAN THE MEX FOR THE RAIN
CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
000
FXUS63 KLMK 081940
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
240 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW AS A COOL
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MONDAY
MORNING AS IDA NEARS THE GULF COAST.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND
50...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 40S IN SHELTERED AREAS. DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUDS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...IT WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
A COUPLE OF ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST. THE FIRST WILL CENTER AROUND
THE TRACK AND NORTHERN EXTEND OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE IDA. THE GFS
HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE KENTUCKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
THE NAM KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. SO
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WE WILL HOLD POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN UPPED TO THE
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE NEXT
WEEKEND. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND THEN SHIFTING THE SYSTEM
NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME THE GFS IS ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF AND WE WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS THESE CLOSED
LOWS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
AS THE REMNANT OF IDA MOVES INTO THE CAROLINA`S. A VERY DRY AND COOL
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY SO TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN TONIGHT WITH A MID DECK AROUND 15 KFT
FORMING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN DOMINANT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST TOMORROW. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY IN THE 10-12 KT
RANGE. THEY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........EES
LONG TERM.........JA
AVIATION..........EES
[top]
000
FXUS63 KPAH 081901
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
101 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ALL EYES ARE UPON IDA AS SHE EVOLVES IN THE GULF...ANTICIPATED TO
MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND THE FL PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY. THIS
COMPONENT OF OUR UPCOMING EARLY WEEK CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOW BEING
MODELLED TO LIFT NE AFTER LANDFALL...MEANING MOST IF NOT ALL OF
ITS MOISTURE WILL BE KEPT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. OUR CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL REMAIN SMALLISH...MAINLY MON NIGHT-TUE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE DRIVEN BY THE NRN STREAM.
BEFORE SAID FROPA...EXPECT CONTINUATION OF BETTER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS WITH PERHAPS 1 MORE DAY OF 70S ON TAP. AFTER FROPA...BACK
CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMS FOR THE MID WEEK...THEN MODERATING A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TO CLOSE THE WORKWEEK/START THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT POP THEREAFTER COMES EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...AFTER WHICH
ANOTHER WEAK FROPA LEADS TO A RETURN BACK TO CLIMO NORM TEMPS
AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. CIGS
ABOVE 15K FEET ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. DEW POINTS WILL
CREEP UPWARD AND WINDS WILL TREND LIGHTER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT FOG VERY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KJKL 081740 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1240 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET...PLEASANT AND
QUITE BENIGN. THE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS
ARE...AND WILL BE...MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...THANKFULLY SO FOR
FIRE WEATHER PURPOSE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FOR THE FORECASTED
AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH THE MORNING INVERSION NOW MIXING OUT...RUNNING
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AT 10 AM EST. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. EXPECT THESE TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S
BY MID AFTERNOON YIELDING HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE IN
MOST PLACES. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS
THAN INITIALLY FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED THE MORNING SPOT FORECASTS FOR
THE FOREST SERVICE. THE TEXT ZONE FORECAST IS FINE AND WILL NOT BE
UPDATED...BUT THE GRIDS AND WEB PRODUCTS WILL BE TOUCHED UP TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. MINOR UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRANSIT THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE RETURNS LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN THE FORM OF MAINLY HIGH...THICKENING CI BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL SWING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO AT MOST
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST. SO MORE INDIAN
SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY MORNINGS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THERMAL BELT WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAMES. COLDEST SPOTS EACH MORNING
WILL BE OUR MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY/GREIF
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
000
FXUS63 KLMK 081700
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1200 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
...FORECAST UPDATE...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOW 60S THIS MORNING...COMPARABLE TO TEMPS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 70S ACROSS KENTUCKIANA
AND THE BLUEGRASS TO MID 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WEB BUT NO NEED TO UPDATE THE
ZONES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALONG THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WE WILL SEE DRY PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CLOUDS IF ANY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT WILL NOT BE
GUSTY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STILL THE WARM SOUTH WINDS
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA NEAR DAWN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING THIS PERIOD WILL ONLY BE INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. SIMILARLY...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THUS IT APPEARS THE ONLY CHANCE
OF RAINFALL DURING THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WITH THAT TUESDAY
SYSTEM...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ANY INFLUENCE FROM IDA WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...SO
JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 70 ON
MONDAY AND THEN ROUGHLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE USUAL COOL
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM IN TONIGHT WITH A MID DECK AROUND 15 KFT
FORMING BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN DOMINANT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST TOMORROW. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY IN THE 10-12 KT
RANGE. THEY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........EES
SHORT TERM.....AML
LONG TERM......13
AVIATION.......EES
000
FXUS63 KLMK 081605
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1105 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...FORECAST UPDATE...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOW 60S THIS MORNING...COMPARABLE TO TEMPS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE LOWER 70S ACROSS KENTUCKIANA
AND THE BLUEGRASS TO MID 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HAVE MADE
SOME MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE WEB BUT NO NEED TO UPDATE THE
ZONES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALONG THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WE WILL SEE DRY PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CLOUDS IF ANY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT WILL NOT BE
GUSTY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STILL THE WARM SOUTH WINDS
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA NEAR DAWN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING THIS PERIOD WILL ONLY BE INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. SIMILARLY...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THUS IT APPEARS THE ONLY CHANCE
OF RAINFALL DURING THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WITH THAT TUESDAY
SYSTEM...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ANY INFLUENCE FROM IDA WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...SO
JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 70 ON
MONDAY AND THEN ROUGHLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE USUAL COOL
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. BWG DEWPT DEPRESSION HAS DROPPED TO 6 DEGREES AS OF 10Z WITH
A CALM WIND SO WILL MAINTAIN A BRIEF MENTION OF 6SM BR THIS MORNING.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF ANY
CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO
INVADE THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS...THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 7KTS TODAY FROM THE SOUTH. TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........EES
SHORT TERM.....AML
LONG TERM......13
AVIATION.......AML
000
FXUS63 KJKL 081555 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET...PLEASANT AND
QUITE BENIGN. THE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS
ARE...AND WILL BE...MUCH LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...THANKFULLY SO FOR
FIRE WEATHER PURPOSE. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK FOR THE FORECASTED
AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH THE MORNING INVERSION NOW MIXING OUT...RUNNING
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AT 10 AM EST. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. EXPECT THESE TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S
BY MID AFTERNOON YIELDING HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE IN
MOST PLACES. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS
THAN INITIALLY FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED THE MORNING SPOT FORECASTS FOR
THE FOREST SERVICE. THE TEXT ZONE FORECAST IS FINE AND WILL NOT BE
UPDATED...BUT THE GRIDS AND WEB PRODUCTS WILL BE TOUCHED UP TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. MINOR UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRANSIT THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE RETURNS LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN THE FORM OF MAINLY HIGH...THICKENING CI BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL SWING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO AT MOST
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST. SO MORE INDIAN
SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY MORNINGS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THERMAL BELT WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAMES. COLDEST SPOTS EACH MORNING
WILL BE OUR MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FAIR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY/GREIF
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...ABE
000
FXUS63 KJKL 081100
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
600 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRANSIT THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE RETURNS LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN THE FORM OF MAINLY HIGH...THICKENING CI BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL SWING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO AT MOST
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST. SO MORE INDIAN
SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY MORNINGS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THERMAL BELT WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAMES. COLDEST SPOTS EACH MORNING
WILL BE OUR MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FAIR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...ABE
000
FXUS63 KLMK 081045
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
545 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALONG THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WE WILL SEE DRY PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CLOUDS IF ANY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT WILL NOT BE
GUSTY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STILL THE WARM SOUTH WINDS
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA NEAR DAWN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING THIS PERIOD WILL ONLY BE INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. SIMILARLY...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THUS IT APPEARS THE ONLY CHANCE
OF RAINFALL DURING THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WITH THAT TUESDAY
SYSTEM...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ANY INFLUENCE FROM IDA WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...SO
JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 70 ON
MONDAY AND THEN ROUGHLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE USUAL COOL
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. BWG DEWPT DEPRESSION HAS DROPPED TO 6 DEGREES AS OF 10Z WITH
A CALM WIND SO WILL MAINTAIN A BRIEF MENTION OF 6SM BR THIS MORNING.
OTHER THAN THAT...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OF ANY
CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO
INVADE THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS...THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 7KTS TODAY FROM THE SOUTH. TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........AML
000
FXUS63 KPAH 080834
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
234 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FOR A SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS
THE LAST 2 DAYS HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON SUFFICIENT LIFT/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS BROAD LIFT ALONG THE SERN
COUNTIES OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE NEWF OF A NWLY TILTED LOW MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH MS AND TN. LIKE YESTERDAYS PACKAGE...I
HAVE CONTINUED A TREND TO LOWER THE POP CHANCES IN BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF HIGHER MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM...DEWPOINTS/WINDS/TEMPERATURES HAVE BECOME QUITE
PROBLEMATIC...GIVEN THE SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. I
ATTEMPTED TO ADDRESS THIS GRADIENT FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE OVERALL IMPACT OF
THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER ON THE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY THE
DEWPOINTS...SO VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
DEWPOINT AND WIND FIELDS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
I STILL PREFER THE ECMWF/RUC MODEL SOLUTION WHICH DEPICTS AN UPPER
LOW MOVING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TODAY INTO MONDAY. I SUSPECT THAT THE FINAL TRACK OF THE
WESTERN GULFMEX LOW WILL STILL LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEAR TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY TODAY. TONIGHT IT WILL BEGIN TO
MOISTEN UP ALOFT...GENERALLY ABOVE 20KFT. ONLY REAL IMPACT TO
AVIATION WILL BE SOUTH WINDS WHICH MAY GUST UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE WEAK
TONIGHT...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCAL AREAS TO HAVE CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR FOG POTENTIAL IN
ISOLATED AREAS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DRS
SHORT/LONG TERM...SMITH
000
FXUS63 KJKL 080756 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED
SHORT TERM IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRANSIT THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE RETURNS LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN THE FORM OF MAINLY HIGH...THICKENING CI BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL SWING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO AT MOST
ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST. SO MORE INDIAN
SUMMER TYPE WEATHER WITH VERY WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY MORNINGS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THERMAL BELT WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAMES. COLDEST SPOTS EACH MORNING
WILL BE OUR MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/
EAST COAST WILL REASSERT CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER...AND GUARANTEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WEAK WIND SHEAR IS STILL SHOWING
UP ON KJKL VAD PROFILER. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY STEEP
NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY AND TENDS
TO BACK UP CURRENT VAD READINGS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED PREVIOUS
WIND SHEAR IN TAFS THROUGH TO TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
WEATHER HAZARDS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
FORECAST TERMINALS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...MACZKO/RAY
000
FXUS63 KJKL 080755
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED
SHORT TERM IS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TRANSIT THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST REASSERTS CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER. MOISTURE RETURNS LATE IN THE
PERIOD IN THE FORM OF MAINLY HIGH...THICKENING CI MONDAY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...RESULTING IN FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL SWING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...SO AT MOST ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMP FORECAST. SO MORE INDIAN SUMMER TYPE
WEATHER WITH FAIR WEATHER...VERY WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY MORNINGS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE THERMAL BELT WHICH WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME FRAMES. COLDEST SPOTS EACH MORNING WILL BE
OUR MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/
EAST COAST WILL REASSERT CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER...AND GUARANTEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WEAK WIND SHEAR IS STILL SHOWING
UP ON KJKL VAD PROFILER. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY STEEP
NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY AND TENDS
TO BACK UP CURRENT VAD READINGS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED PREVIOUS
WIND SHEAR IN TAFS THROUGH TO TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
WEATHER HAZARDS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
FORECAST TERMINALS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...MACZKO/RAY
000
FXUS63 KLMK 080727
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
227 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ALONG THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WE WILL SEE DRY PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE
CLOUDS IF ANY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT WILL NOT BE
GUSTY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STILL THE WARM SOUTH WINDS
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA NEAR DAWN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
UNSEASONABLY MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY - SATURDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING THIS PERIOD WILL ONLY BE INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY BY A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF PASSING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY. SIMILARLY...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. THUS IT APPEARS THE ONLY CHANCE
OF RAINFALL DURING THE WORK WEEK WILL BE WITH THAT TUESDAY
SYSTEM...IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ANY INFLUENCE FROM IDA WILL STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...SO
JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 70 ON
MONDAY AND THEN ROUGHLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S WITH 30S IN THE USUAL COOL
SPOTS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AT SDF AND POSSIBLY LEX LATE
SUNDAY. SOME VERY LIGHT BR IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE AT BWG THIS
MORNING. STILL WILL KEEP IN A 6SM BR GROUP FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD BELOW 10KTS.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........AML
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........AML
000
FXUS63 KJKL 080533
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1233 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/
GRIDS AND ZONES ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS WITH LOWS 10-15
DEGREES OR SO BELOW RIDGE TOPS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALREADY SENT
GRID UPDATES WITH CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDED TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
MONDAY.
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MIXED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A GOOD LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
DO NOT EXPECT THE BROADER VALLEYS TO BE AS WARM NEAR THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR AS LAST NIGHT...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...
UNDERCUTTING THE MOS NUMBERS WITH THE DRY DEWPOINTS TO WORK WITH.
HIGHS TOMORROW AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S. THE CURRENT FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH THE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED
EAST COAST WILL REASSERT CONTROL OVER OUR WEATHER...AND GUARANTEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WEAK WIND SHEAR IS STILL SHOWING
UP ON KJKL VAD PROFILER. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY STEEP
NOCTURNAL INVERSION OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY AND TENDS
TO BACK UP CURRENT VAD READINGS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED PREVIOUS
WIND SHEAR IN TAFS THROUGH TO TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
WEATHER HAZARDS TO AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
FORECAST TERMINALS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN/MACZKO
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...MACZKO/RAY
000
FXUS63 KLMK 080501
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A GREAT LAKES TROUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN UP AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 50 IN THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND
70 DEGREES BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND AWAY FROM
BRINGING THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM IDA FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF RICH MOISTURE IT LOOKS LIKE
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD WITH THE COOL FRONT AND HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REGAINS CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT QUITE WARM AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR
TUES/WED AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AT SDF AND POSSIBLY LEX LATE
SUNDAY. SOME VERY LIGHT BR IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT PROBABLE AT BWG THIS
MORNING. STILL WILL KEEP IN A 6SM BR GROUP FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD BELOW 10KTS.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........JA
LONG TERM.........EES
AVIATION..........AML
000
FXUS63 KJKL 080309
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1009 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED
GRIDS AND ZONES ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE VALLEYS WITH LOWS 10-15
DEGREES OR SO BELOW RIDGE TOPS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALREADY SENT
GRID UPDATES WITH CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDED TO OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WITH THIS UPDATE.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
MONDAY.
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MIXED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A GOOD LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
DO NOT EXPECT THE BROADER VALLEYS TO BE AS WARM NEAR THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR AS LAST NIGHT...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...
UNDERCUTTING THE MOS NUMBERS WITH THE DRY DEWPOINTS TO WORK WITH.
HIGHS TOMORROW AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S. THE CURRENT FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH THE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/
SOME WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS WITH THE 00Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...NO WEATHER HAZARDS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN/MACZKO
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...MACZKO
000
FXUS63 KJKL 072350
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
MONDAY.
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MIXED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A GOOD LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
DO NOT EXPECT THE BROADER VALLEYS TO BE AS WARM NEAR THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR AS LAST NIGHT...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...
UNDERCUTTING THE MOS NUMBERS WITH THE DRY DEWPOINTS TO WORK WITH.
HIGHS TOMORROW AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S. THE CURRENT FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH THE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED
SOME WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS WITH THE 00Z TAFS. OTHERWISE...NO WEATHER HAZARDS TO
AVIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...MACZKO
000
FXUS63 KPAH 072326
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS. NO CHANGE TO THE 145
PM PUBLIC DISCUSSION SECTION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NICE SLY GUSTS INTO/THRU THE 20S KTS TODAY WILL RELAX WITH DIURNAL
WANE IN PRESSURE/MIXING FIELD. AOA MOS TEMPS NOW SHOULD REPEAT
TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
INCREASING MRH FIELD MON-TUE TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL
POP EVENT...AS SRN WAVE STAYS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST. THAT MEANS BEST
CHC POP WILL COME WITH FROPA/SYS PASSAGE MON NIGHT-TUE...BUT
SMALLISH AT THAT. TUE NIGHT ALL MODELS PULL THE SYS OUT EXCEPT THE
NAM...WHICH IS 3-6 HRS SLOWER IN DOING THE SAME. COLLAB CONSENSUS
IS TO END POPS BY 00Z WED SO WE`LL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW.
DRY WEATHER FORECAST FINISHES OUT THE WORKWEEK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM INCREASES MOISTURE AND
ULTIMATELY REINTRODUCES A POP AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
PROFILER AND VWP DATA FROM REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED WIND SPEEDS HAD
DECREASED IN THE LOWEST 3K/FT. THIS COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING
WEAK INVERSION MEANS WINDS SHOULD BE LESS OF A FACTOR TONIGHT. WINDS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD NOT BE AS GUSTY EITHER...AS LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE
SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDING DATA IN THE MIXED LAYER. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KLMK 072307
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A GREAT LAKES TROUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN UP AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP
SKIES CLEAR FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER 40S
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 50 IN THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND
70 DEGREES BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM. THE WEAK COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND AWAY FROM
BRINGING THE MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM IDA FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. WITH A LACK OF RICH MOISTURE IT LOOKS LIKE
SHOWERS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD WITH THE COOL FRONT AND HAVE KEPT
POPS IN THE 20/30 RANGE THROUGH THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY REGAINS CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT QUITE WARM AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR
TUES/WED AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER KENTUCKY WILL RELAX TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT
WILL LESSEN AND BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 7 MPH...EXCEPT NEARLY
CALM AT BWG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AROUND 25 TO 30KTS AROUND 2000 FEET. THIS WILL JUST STAY
UNDER LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA.
WINDS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 KT FROM THE SOUTH.
NEARLY CALM WINDS AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR
VSBYS AT BWG IN LIGHT PATCHY FOG.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........JA
LONG TERM.........EES
AVIATION..........JSD
000
FXUS63 KPAH 071945
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
145 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NICE SLY GUSTS INTO/THRU THE 20S KTS TODAY WILL RELAX WITH DIURNAL
WANE IN PRESSURE/MIXING FIELD. AOA MOS TEMPS NOW SHOULD REPEAT
TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
INCREASING MRH FIELD MON-TUE TIME FRAME STILL LOOKS LIKE MINIMAL
POP EVENT...AS SRN WAVE STAYS MAINLY SOUTH/EAST. THAT MEANS BEST
CHC POP WILL COME WITH FROPA/SYS PASSAGE MON NIGHT-TUE...BUT
SMALLISH AT THAT. TUE NIGHT ALL MODELS PULL THE SYS OUT EXCEPT THE
NAM...WHICH IS 3-6 HRS SLOWER IN DOING THE SAME. COLLAB CONSENSUS
IS TO END POPS BY 00Z WED SO WE`LL STICK WITH THAT FOR NOW.
DRY WEATHER FORECAST FINISHES OUT THE WORKWEEK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE...THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM INCREASES MOISTURE AND
ULTIMATELY REINTRODUCES A POP AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF CLOUDS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. THE ONLY FACTOR
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY
AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...BUT NOT TO
THE EXTENT THEY INCREASED TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KJKL 071945
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
245 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WITH CLEAR
SKIES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
MONDAY.
DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MIXED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A GOOD LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WINDS ALOFT WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
DO NOT EXPECT THE BROADER VALLEYS TO BE AS WARM NEAR THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR AS LAST NIGHT...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE...
UNDERCUTTING THE MOS NUMBERS WITH THE DRY DEWPOINTS TO WORK WITH.
HIGHS TOMORROW AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S. THE CURRENT FORECAST JIVES WELL WITH THE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED
FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS START OUT WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND AN INBOUND NORTHERN STREAM ONE. THE NAM IS MUCH SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. DESPITE THE BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF WITH THESE TROUGHS CROSSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
GFS EXHIBITS A STRONGER AND SLOWER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF ELICITING
MORE PHASING...AS WELL. FOR THIS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE EARLIER
ECMWF AND ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN SOLUTION. THE TROUGH THEN
CLEARS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH FLAT RIDGING
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ENDING UP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. AGAIN THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE AS THE
GFS IS TOO QUICK TO DAMPEN OUT THIS RIDGE IN THE FACE OF A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH THAT IT BLUDGEONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A QUICK GLANCE
AT THE NEWEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SLOWER IS BETTER...TOO.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A LAST NIGHT OF A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH THE STALE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO
THE EAST. MORE CLOUDS THICKENING UP WILL BE THE RESULT OF THIS ALONG
WITH MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA AND ALSO A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LACK OF TRUE PHASING WILL KEEP THESE FEATURES AND THEIR
MOISTURE SEPARATE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE KEPT THE BEST POP
CHANCES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DRIES OUT EAST
KENTUCKY...WORKING TO CLEAR THE SKY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
SETTLE INTO THE REGION AND ONLY SLOWLY PULL EAST. FROM THIS...EXPECT
A BLOCK OF DAYS WITH WEATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE ARE ENJOYING FOR
THESE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE DURING THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH A LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMP SPLIT EXPECTED FOR
EACH NIGHT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH FINALLY BREAKS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH MORE FORCEFULLY INTO THE
AREA FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE SLOWER TREND...HAVE KEPT
THE MAIN THREAT OF SHOWERS OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...HOLDING OFF THE MOISTENING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
UNTIL LATER THAT EVENING.
FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS...
ACCEPTED THE HPC NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY ENDED UP BELOW
MEXMOS FOR POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ONLY
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AT DUSK. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL ENOUGH
TO NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
000
FXUS63 KJKL 071737
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY EASE
AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA PULLS FURTHER AWAY. SUNNY SKIES
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. READINGS HAVE
JUMPED QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S THANKS TO VERY MILD AIR
AT 925 MB. THIS QUICK RISE WILL LEVEL OFF QUITE A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A LIMITED MIXING DEPTH. THIS KEEP THE HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STILL...WILL HAVE TO EASE UP THE
TEMPERATURE RANGES IN THE ZONES...AS CURRENT READINGS ARE ONLY A FEW
DEGREES AWAY FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE CURRENT FORECAST RANGE RIGHT
NOW.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO RETREAT
EASTWARD AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS
THE AREA ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RIDE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ON THE BACK OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS HAS PRODUCED A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS THE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...MID 40S WERE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THERMAL BELT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND GIVE A TRUE KICK TO RISING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
LOW FOR SOME VERY CHILLY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR TYPICALLY
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EAST.
AN ADDED GUSTY COMPONENT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT FOR FIRE WEATHER
PURPOSES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALSO DROP TO BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL TOP THE HEADLINES
WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT EACH NIGHT. ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND
RESTRICTED TO MAINLY RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TEMPS
FOR CCF PURPOSES AFTER TAKING IN RECENT DIURNAL TRENDS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF 70 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS LEFTOVER IDA
MOISTURE SKIRTING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL THEN APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF WITH PHASING THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...
BRINGING IN MUCH LESS MOISTURE RETURN. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENT FORECAST...INCREASING POP CHANCES TO AROUND 40 DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. DID TIGHTEN THE WINDOW OF HIGHER POPS A BIT THOUGH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERALL DRIER TREND.
BROAD RIDGING AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY FALLING THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. MEX NUMBERS HAVE COME IN QUITE A BIT WARMER SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO HAVE NUDGED OUR NUMBERS IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ONLY
CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DIMINISHING AT DUSK. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE WIND
SHEAR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT LOOKS MARGINAL ENOUGH
TO NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
000
FXUS63 KLMK 071709
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1209 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE US WITH A SUNNY AND
WARM DAY TODAY AND A CLEAR AND TEMPERATE NIGHT TONIGHT.
AS THE GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A TROF
TO OUR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW TODAY. FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EXPECT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE WITH THIS
BRISK FLOW WILL PULL TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK
THIS AFTERNOON. RECORDS FOR THIS DATE ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND THE SUN SETS.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...
THE ONLY WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR MON NIGHT/TUES
CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER OVER OUR AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
BACK POPS INTO THE 20S/30S FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUES WITH THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT QPF MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KY. BOTH THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF HAVE KEPT THE RICH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA) WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
SO...IN THE EXTENDED...WE/LL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUN/MON WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN WE/LL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MON NIGHT/TUES. THEN BACK TO A DRY PATTERN FOR
WED-FRI AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES SE BACK INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL WED-FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN UP SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SO WE
EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS UNTIL AROUND 23Z AND THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS
AFTER THAT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 25KTS AFTER SURFACE
WINDS DIMINISH.
NEAR CALM WINDS AROUND 12Z SUNDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS AT
BWG WITH FOG BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
NOTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING. PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........JA
000
FXUS63 KJKL 071546
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1046 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY EASE
AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA PULLS FURTHER AWAY. SUNNY SKIES
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. READINGS HAVE
JUMPED QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S THANKS TO VERY MILD AIR
AT 925 MB. THIS QUICK RISE WILL LEVEL OFF QUITE A BIT IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A LIMITED MIXING DEPTH. THIS KEEP THE HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STILL...WILL HAVE TO EASE UP THE
TEMPERATURE RANGES IN THE ZONES...AS CURRENT READINGS ARE ONLY A FEW
DEGREES AWAY FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE CURRENT FORECAST RANGE RIGHT
NOW.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO RETREAT
EASTWARD AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS
THE AREA ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RIDE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ON THE BACK OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS HAS PRODUCED A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS THE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...MID 40S WERE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THERMAL BELT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND GIVE A TRUE KICK TO RISING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
LOW FOR SOME VERY CHILLY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR TYPICALLY
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EAST.
AN ADDED GUSTY COMPONENT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT FOR FIRE WEATHER
PURPOSES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALSO DROP TO BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL TOP THE HEADLINES
WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT EACH NIGHT. ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND
RESTRICTED TO MAINLY RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TEMPS
FOR CCF PURPOSES AFTER TAKING IN RECENT DIURNAL TRENDS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF 70 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS LEFTOVER IDA
MOISTURE SKIRTING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL THEN APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF WITH PHASING THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...
BRINGING IN MUCH LESS MOISTURE RETURN. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENT FORECAST...INCREASING POP CHANCES TO AROUND 40 DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. DID TIGHTEN THE WINDOW OF HIGHER POPS A BIT THOUGH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERALL DRIER TREND.
BROAD RIDGING AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY FALLING THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. MEX NUMBERS HAVE COME IN QUITE A BIT WARMER SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO HAVE NUDGED OUR NUMBERS IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO A
PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
RESPONSE... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER OUR AREA
TODAY. NO REAL WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR TAF SITES OTHER THAN
AN INCREASING WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 10 KTS BY LATE
MORNING... WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. LLWS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP
TONIGHT... BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
000
FXUS63 KLMK 071504
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...FORECAST UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH
EXPECTED FULL SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. AT 15Z TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE FORECASTED NUMBERS. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE US WITH A SUNNY AND
WARM DAY TODAY AND A CLEAR AND TEMPERATE NIGHT TONIGHT.
AS THE GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A TROF
TO OUR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW TODAY. FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EXPECT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE WITH THIS
BRISK FLOW WILL PULL TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK
THIS AFTERNOON. RECORDS FOR THIS DATE ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND THE SUN SETS.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...
THE ONLY WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR MON NIGHT/TUES
CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER OVER OUR AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
BACK POPS INTO THE 20S/30S FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUES WITH THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT QPF MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KY. BOTH THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF HAVE KEPT THE RICH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA) WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
SO...IN THE EXTENDED...WE/LL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUN/MON WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN WE/LL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MON NIGHT/TUES. THEN BACK TO A DRY PATTERN FOR
WED-FRI AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES SE BACK INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL WED-FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES AND VSBYS VFR THIS
TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE ARE RATHER STRONG BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND A TROF TO THE NORTHWEST. AMDAR (ACARS) SOUNDINGS AND VWP SHOW
WINDS AT 2000 FEET AROUND 40KT AT 11Z AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MODEL AVERAGE. THEN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY...SETTLING DOWN AS THE SUN SETS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........JA
SHORT TERM.....13
LONG TERM......AML
AVIATION.......13
000
FXUS63 KPAH 071128
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
528 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE DISCUSSION
SECTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
REGIME BEHIND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THIS TIME.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY /SATURDAY/ WILL BE
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERTICAL
MIXING...MAINLY FOR THE WIND/WIND GUST AND DEWPOINT FORECAST. FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST
OF WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS MORNING PACKAGE. THERE WAS JUST
NOT ENOUGH COMPELLING REASONS TO MAKE FURTHER AREAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE WIND/WIND GUST AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WEATHER AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THERMAL
AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS WITH THIS FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ONTO LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TO THAT END...ONLY MADE A SLIGHT POP/WEATHER
ADJUSTMENT TO REFLECT RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE CURRENT LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHING A MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
QUITE SIMILAR IN THE PROGRESSION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN FOR AVIATION FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STRONG INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE BASED IN THE
2500-3000FT AGL LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. 40KT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
NOTED ON AREA PROFILERS AT 925MB. THE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT THESE
STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH MORE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN TO AROUND
5 MPH AT SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......KES
AVIATION....DRS
000
FXUS63 KPAH 071128 CCA
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
528 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE DISCUSSION
SECTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
REGIME BEHIND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THIS TIME.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY /SATURDAY/ WILL BE
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERTICAL
MIXING...MAINLY FOR THE WIND/WIND GUST AND DEWPOINT FORECAST. FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST
OF WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS MORNING PACKAGE. THERE WAS JUST
NOT ENOUGH COMPELLING REASONS TO MAKE FURTHER AREAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE WIND/WIND GUST AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WEATHER AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THERMAL
AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS WITH THIS FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ONTO LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TO THAT END...ONLY MADE A SLIGHT POP/WEATHER
ADJUSTMENT TO REFLECT RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE CURRENT LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHING A MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
QUITE SIMILAR IN THE PROGRESSION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN FOR AVIATION FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST WINDS. A STRONG INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO BE BASED IN THE
2500-3000FT AGL LAYER THROUGH THE DAY. 40KT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
NOTED ON AREA PROFILERS AT 925MB. THE INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT THESE
STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
MPH MORE COMMON THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL CALM DOWN TO AROUND
5 MPH AT SUNSET AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC......KES
AVIATION....DRS
000
FXUS63 KLMK 071119
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
619 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE US WITH A SUNNY AND
WARM DAY TODAY AND A CLEAR AND TEMPERATE NIGHT TONIGHT.
AS THE GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A TROF
TO OUR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW TODAY. FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EXPECT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE WITH THIS
BRISK FLOW WILL PULL TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK
THIS AFTERNOON. RECORDS FOR THIS DATE ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND THE SUN SETS.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...
THE ONLY WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR MON NIGHT/TUES
CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER OVER OUR AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
BACK POPS INTO THE 20S/30S FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUES WITH THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT QPF MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KY. BOTH THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF HAVE KEPT THE RICH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA) WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
SO...IN THE EXTENDED...WE/LL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUN/MON WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN WE/LL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MON NIGHT/TUES. THEN BACK TO A DRY PATTERN FOR
WED-FRI AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES SE BACK INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL WED-FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES AND VSBYS VFR THIS
TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE ARE RATHER STRONG BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND A TROF TO THE NORTHWEST. AMDAR (ACARS) SOUNDINGS AND
VWP SHOW WINDS AT 2000 FEET AROUND 40KT AT 11Z AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL AVERAGE. THEN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY...SETTLING
DOWN AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........13
000
FXUS63 KJKL 071118
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
618 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO RETREAT
EASTWARD AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS
THE AREA ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RIDE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ON THE BACK OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS HAS PRODUCED A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS THE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...MID 40S WERE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THERMAL BELT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND GIVE A TRUE KICK TO RISING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
LOW FOR SOME VERY CHILLY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR TYPICALLY
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EAST.
AN ADDED GUSTY COMPONENT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT FOR FIRE WEATHER
PURPOSES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALSO DROP TO BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL TOP THE HEADLINES
WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT EACH NIGHT. ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND
RESTRICTED TO MAINLY RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TEMPS
FOR CCF PURPOSES AFTER TAKING IN RECENT DIURNAL TRENDS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF 70 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS LEFTOVER IDA
MOISTURE SKIRTING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL THEN APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF WITH PHASING THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...
BRINGING IN MUCH LESS MOISTURE RETURN. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENT FORECAST...INCREASING POP CHANCES TO AROUND 40 DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. DID TIGHTEN THE WINDOW OF HIGHER POPS A BIT THOUGH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERALL DRIER TREND.
BROAD RIDGING AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY FALLING THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. MEX NUMBERS HAVE COME IN QUITE A BIT WARMER SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO HAVE NUDGED OUR NUMBERS IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO A
PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN
RESPONSE... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER OUR AREA
TODAY. NO REAL WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR TAF SITES OTHER THAN
AN INCREASING WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 10 KTS BY LATE
MORNING... WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. LLWS MAY
BECOME A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP
TONIGHT... BUT IT LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN
THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...ABE
000
FXUS63 KPAH 070850
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
REGIME BEHIND THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED ALONG
THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT THIS TIME.
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY /SATURDAY/ WILL BE
THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERTICAL
MIXING...MAINLY FOR THE WIND/WIND GUST AND DEWPOINT FORECAST. FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST
OF WINDS AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS MORNING PACKAGE. THERE WAS JUST
NOT ENOUGH COMPELLING REASONS TO MAKE FURTHER AREAL ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE WIND/WIND GUST AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES...POPS...WEATHER AND QPF WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THERMAL
AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS WITH THIS FORECAST.
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ONTO LATE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TO THAT END...ONLY MADE A SLIGHT POP/WEATHER
ADJUSTMENT TO REFLECT RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE CURRENT LOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO PUSHING A MOISTURE PLUME INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
OTHERWISE...THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
QUITE SIMILAR IN THE PROGRESSION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
/RETRANSMISSION OF 1024 PM CST FRI NOV 6 DISCUSSION/
MAY TWEAK UP WINDS OVERNIGHT...AS PROFILER AND RADAR VWP DATA
SHOWING DECENT 30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND FEW TO NO CLOUDS SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH CLOUDS SHIFT EAST.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SMITH
000
FXUS63 KJKL 070800
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUE TO RETREAT
EASTWARD AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS
THE AREA ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RIDE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ON THE BACK OF A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS HAS PRODUCED A SHARP
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND IN THE UPPER
20S ACROSS THE EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL...MID 40S WERE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THERMAL BELT.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
TO BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPS AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND GIVE A TRUE KICK TO RISING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
LOW FOR SOME VERY CHILLY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR TYPICALLY
COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...A SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EAST.
AN ADDED GUSTY COMPONENT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT FOR FIRE WEATHER
PURPOSES AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ALSO DROP TO BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL TOP THE HEADLINES
WITH WARM AFTERNOONS AND CHILLY NIGHTS. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT EACH NIGHT. ANY MORNING FOG SHOULD BE PATCHY AND
RESTRICTED TO MAINLY RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
AGAIN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO TWEAK TEMPS
FOR CCF PURPOSES AFTER TAKING IN RECENT DIURNAL TRENDS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF 70 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS LEFTOVER IDA
MOISTURE SKIRTING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL THEN APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF WITH PHASING THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...
BRINGING IN MUCH LESS MOISTURE RETURN. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENT FORECAST...INCREASING POP CHANCES TO AROUND 40 DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. DID TIGHTEN THE WINDOW OF HIGHER POPS A BIT THOUGH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERALL DRIER TREND.
BROAD RIDGING AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY FALLING THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. MEX NUMBERS HAVE COME IN QUITE A BIT WARMER SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO HAVE NUDGED OUR NUMBERS IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO PASSING
DISTURBANCE...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN RESPONSE...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. NO REAL WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR TAF SITES
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND. KJKL AND KSME WILL BE A BIT
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIGHT SOUTH...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. SOME LLWS
MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS
UP FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LAMINAR EFFECTS HELPING WINDS TO SPIN UP JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
000
FXUS63 KLMK 070756
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
256 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE US WITH A SUNNY AND
WARM DAY TODAY AND A CLEAR AND TEMPERATE NIGHT TONIGHT.
AS THE GRADIENT SHARPENS BETWEEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A TROF
TO OUR NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW TODAY. FOR THE
BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS EXPECT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30MPH. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE WITH THIS
BRISK FLOW WILL PULL TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK
THIS AFTERNOON. RECORDS FOR THIS DATE ARE IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND THE SUN SETS.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...
THE ONLY WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR MON NIGHT/TUES
CONTINUES TO TREND WEAKER OVER OUR AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
BACK POPS INTO THE 20S/30S FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO OCCUR ON TUES WITH THE WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT QPF MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHERN KY. BOTH THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z ECMWF HAVE KEPT THE RICH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA) WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
SO...IN THE EXTENDED...WE/LL HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUN/MON WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN WE/LL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MON NIGHT/TUES. THEN BACK TO A DRY PATTERN FOR
WED-FRI AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS MOVES SE BACK INTO THE
MIDWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MORE SEASONAL WED-FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES AND VSBYS VFR THIS
TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF
TO THE NORTHWEST. AMDAR (ACARS) SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS AT 2000 FEET
ALREADY TO 40KT AT 05Z WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
AVERAGE. THEN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY...SETTLING DOWN AS THE SUN SETS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........13
000
FXUS63 KJKL 070535
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1235 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/
VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 64 HAVE EXPERIENCED TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...AND ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN RIDGETOP
LOCATIONS. CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
CLEAR SKIES...DESPITE A TIGHTER PRESS GRADIENT LEADING TO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT...EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD END UP WITH LOWS ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AM AND RIDGETOP AND MORE OPEN
LOCATIONS ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER IN THE EAST AND 8 TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER IN THE WEST. FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED TEMPS
ABOUT ONE CATEGORY.
THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS EAST KENTUCKY AND THE BULK OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS SLOWLY PULLING EAST AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS FROM THIS TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS GRADIENT IS SERVING TO SWITCH THE WINDS TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE THE WAA WINDS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. OVER THE EAST...
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...WINDS WERE MUCH LIGHTER. A LONE
BAND OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND DRIFTING PAST THE AREA TO THE NORTH AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A SUNNY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
THANKS TO THE SUNSHINE...CHILLY MORNING TEMPS REBOUNDED WELL INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AS DEWPOINTS PLUNGED INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 20S. THIS RESULTED IN DRY HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE 25 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT INTO THE START OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THEY ALL DEPICT...OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS
SOUTH...MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM DEEP SOUTH AND
DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SHORTWAVE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE TAKES
PLACE WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...AS A RESULT...A BLENDED APPROACH WAS
USED FOR THIS BENIGN...EXCEPT FOR FIRE WX...PATTERN. FOR WEATHER
SPECIFICS...THE NAM12 WAS FOLLOWED...BUT THE MAV NUMBERS AND LARGER
DIURNAL RANGES WERE FAVORED FOR TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE SPRAWLING
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. WITH
THIS...WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST ADDING WAA TO THE
MIX ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATED AMPLE SUNSHINE. IN FACT...EXPECT THERE
TO BE A GUSTY COMPONENT TO THE WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT FOR FIRE WX PURPOSES. FOR SUNDAY A RESURGENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...IN THE WAKE OF A SFC WAVE PASSING BY WELL TO THE
NORTH...SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS A BIT LIGHTER. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR MODERATING TREND SO THAT READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY. THE SFC HIGH
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AND ANY RISK OF PCPN AT BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AGAIN SPENT MOST OF THE TIME FINE TUNING THE DEWPOINT AND RH FORECAST
FOR FIRE WX PURPOSES. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...EXPECT A TOUCH OF
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE FORECAST. LARGE RIDGE TO
VALLEY SPLITS ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HAVE DEPICTED THESE RELATIVE
TERRAIN BASED DIFFERENCES MOST ARDENTLY IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED THE COLDER ADJMAV NUMBERS MOST CLOSELY
AT NIGHT AND FAVORED A BLEND FOR HIGHS. WENT WITH JUST ABOUT NIL FOR
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SINGLE DIGIT NUMBERS
FROM MOS.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF 70 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS LEFTOVER IDA
MOISTURE SKIRTING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL THEN APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF WITH PHASING THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES...
BRINGING IN MUCH LESS MOISTURE RETURN. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A
PERSISTENT FORECAST...INCREASING POP CHANCES TO AROUND 40 DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. DID TIGHTEN THE WINDOW OF HIGHER POPS A BIT THOUGH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERALL DRIER TREND.
BROAD RIDGING AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN KEEP
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY FALLING THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. MEX NUMBERS HAVE COME IN QUITE A BIT WARMER SINCE
YESTERDAY...SO HAVE NUDGED OUR NUMBERS IN THIS DIRECTION.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST IS GIVING WAY TO PASSING
DISTURBANCE...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
IN RESPONSE...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. NO REAL WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR TAF SITES
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND. KJKL AND KSME WILL BE A BIT
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIGHT SOUTH...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH ABOUT
14Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. SOME LLWS
MAY BECOME A CONCERN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS
UP FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LAMINAR EFFECTS HELPING WINDS TO SPIN UP JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF/JP
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
000
FXUS63 KLMK 070526
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1226 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40KTS AFTER 04Z
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ALSO A FEW CLOUDS.. BUT NOT MANY.
SO UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD IN THE LOW AND MID 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S NOTED IN CUMBERLAND
AND CLINTON COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT SATURDAY BETWEEN 65
AND 70 DEGREES WITH A BRISK SOUTHWEST WIND.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
A BROAD ZONAL JET OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CONUS WILL KEEP
ANY ARCTIC AIR WELL NORTH IN CANADA AND PREVENT ANY REAL
AMPLIFICATION OF ANY EMBEDDED TROUGHS. THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONALLY
STRONG BERMUDA HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RUN AS MUCH AS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...EVEN OVERNIGHT LOWS EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO SOME MIXING OF STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL.
ON TUESDAY...A WEAK LOW-AMPLITUDE 500MB TROUGH WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH EARLY TUESDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF MAY
MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS FAR AS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...AGREE WITH CURRENT MODEL TRENDS IN SHUNTING
THIS MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH (I) WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AGREE WITH HPC FORECAST IN KEEPING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
THREAT OUT OF KENTUCKY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY. ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TUESDAY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED WARMER TOWARDS MID-WEEK AND THUS WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO NEAR SEASONAL MID-NOVEMBER HIGHS AROUND
60. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY WILL LIKE BRING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES AND VSBYS VFR THIS
TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE LLWS THIS MORNING AS WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROF
TO THE NORTHWEST. AMDAR (ACARS) SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS AT 2000 FEET
ALREADY TO 40KT AT 05Z WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
AVERAGE. THEN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY...SETTLING DOWN AS THE SUN SETS THIS
EVENING.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM........JA
LONG TERM.........JSD
AVIATION..........13
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