[top]
000
FXUS64 KSHV 231557
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
957 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FOG IS LIFTING SLOWLY WITH STILL A COUPLE OF STUBBORN POCKETS OVER
TEXAS COUNTIES. EXTENDED FOG IN THE WEATHER GRID FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE LUFKIN AND NACOGDOCHES VICINITIES AND
FARTHER NORTH OF I-20 AND I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND ON A FEW HIGHS OVER TX DUE TO THE FOG AND SLIGHT DROP IN THE
WIND GRIDS. ALSO ...AS FOG LIFTS...MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING TO BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON FITS WELL WITH EXPECTATIONS. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG AT LFK AND GGG STARTING TO ERODE. VSBYS STILL A QUARTER
MILE AT LFK BUT SHOULD ERODE RAPIDLY BEFORE 17Z. AT OTHER
SITES...CIGS ARE THE PROBLEM BUT AGAIN SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH 18Z.
EXPECT MVFR/VFR AT ALL SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST WEST OF OUR E TX TERMINALS BY 24/12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG WITH LOW CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
AND WILL THUS MAKE THIS MENTION IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 52 67 41 65 / 0 30 40 10 0
MLU 69 49 69 42 65 / 0 20 40 20 0
DEQ 67 48 64 33 61 / 0 40 30 0 0
TXK 69 51 65 38 63 / 0 30 30 0 0
ELD 70 50 65 40 65 / 0 20 40 20 0
TYR 72 52 65 41 63 / 0 30 30 0 0
GGG 72 51 66 40 64 / 0 30 30 0 0
LFK 72 51 68 40 65 / 0 20 40 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/04
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLCH 231541
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
941 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FOG
BEGINS TO LIFT WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING. THEREFORE...HAVE ALLOWED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE...MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWS PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...SO SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. UPDATED ZONES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
HOVERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS RANGING
FROM 500 FEET AT KAEX TO ALMOST 3000 FEET AT KLFT/KARA.
VISIBILITIES HAVEN`T BEEN THE PROBLEM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH
READINGS BASICALLY BOUNCING AROUND ANYWHERE FROM 1/2SM TO 10SM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX OUT THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS BY 12Z TUESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW LIFTING
OFF TO THE NE WITH THE AREA UNDER PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED UPSTREAM IS MOVING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROVIDING LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS. A LARGE SWATH OF STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WEST INTO THE SABINE VALLEY UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED WESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
WESTERNMOST EDGE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY LFK TO BPT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WERE NOTED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER SE TX AND WRN LA WHICH ALLOWED
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. VISBYS HAVE IMPROVED
SOME EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND
SPACE RANGING FROM LESS THAN ONE MILE TO FIVE MILES. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF A
MARKSVILLE TO CAMERON LINE.
FURTHERMORE...IN AREAS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR...ENOUGH
COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
50S...WHILE ACRS THE ERN ZONES WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
OVERCAST...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S.
DISCUSSION...
EXPECT THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD LAYER TO BEGIN MIXING OUT TODAY...WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR
NEAR 70 BY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER
THAN FCST OVER THE ERN ZONES WITH OVERCAST ANTICIPATED TO LINGER
HERE A BIT LONGER.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SCT POPS FOR TUESDAY...A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET AND THE LOWER MAV POP GUIDANCE.
THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH HOWEVER...WITH RATHER MEAGER MOISTURE
RETURN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THE INITIAL LOW WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL
DRY AIR ACRS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND DRY NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY COOL WEATHER FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WRN US LATE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FROPA ON MONDAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RESUMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 70 53 73 50 67 / 0 10 40 20 10
KBPT 72 56 74 48 67 / 0 10 40 10 10
KAEX 69 48 71 45 65 / 0 10 40 10 10
KLFT 70 53 74 51 68 / 0 10 40 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS64 KLIX 231256
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
656 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.UPDATE...
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS SATURATED UP TO 875 MB AND VERY DRY
ALOFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS 0.55 INCHES. A STRATUS DECK IS
PRESENT AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY LESS THAN 5 SM
DUE TO MIST OR FOG ACROSS THE CWA. AN INVERSION IS PRESENT NEAR
740 MB WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS DOMINATING THE ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS TAKING SHAPE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
LOCALLY...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND SHOULD ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOT SURE WHY...BUT
THE NAM IS CARRYING 60 TO 70 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EVEN THOUGH IT FORECASTS NO ACTUAL
QPF. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH FORECAST A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS. WITH LITTLE TO NO RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY
STILL OVERDONE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
A REINFORCING HIGH WILL BRING COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. EXPECT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH OF THE TIDAL
LAKES. HIGH SHOULD GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA. LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR. THE MODELS TYPICALLY TEND TO UNDER FORECAST THE
AMOUNT OF COOLING IN THIS KIND OF SITUATION...SO WILL UNDERCUT
MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. THE RESULT IS A FORECAST FOR NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY
IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION...
MOSTLY IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HRS. MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A
STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 300 AND 1K FT BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AROUND 15Z.
AFTER 15Z ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FINALLY EXPECTED AROUND 18Z. VISBIES WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LIGHT FG AND BR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
ALSO AS CIGS FALL THEY COULD TEMPORARILY DROP ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND CAUSING VISBIES OF 1/2-1SM TO OCCUR. VISBIES SHOULD IMPROVE
TO ABV 6SM BY 15Z.
MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS THROUGH MIDDAY TUE. LATE TUE A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SAME A WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE SRN END OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP SOME WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED WED. STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SHOULD
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRI LEADING TO OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THAT TIME. A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR THANKSGIVING DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE
CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
AND SMALL CRAFT ADV MAY BE NECESSARY THU AND THU NIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO REDEVELOP SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MORE TWRDS THE ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 66 48 71 48 / 0 0 10 20
BTR 70 50 73 50 / 0 0 20 20
MSY 69 54 72 54 / 0 0 10 20
GPT 66 50 71 52 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 231217
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
617 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
HOVERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS RANGING
FROM 500 FEET AT KAEX TO ALMOST 3000 FEET AT KLFT/KARA.
VISIBILITIES HAVEN`T BEEN THE PROBLEM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH
READINGS BASICALLY BOUNCING AROUND ANYWHERE FROM 1/2SM TO 10SM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
MIX OUT THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER MODEL TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHER
DEWPOINTS BY 12Z TUESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY FOR LATE IN THE FORECAST.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW LIFTING
OFF TO THE NE WITH THE AREA UNDER PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED UPSTREAM IS MOVING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROVIDING LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS. A LARGE SWATH OF STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WEST INTO THE SABINE VALLEY UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED WESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
WESTERNMOST EDGE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY LFK TO BPT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WERE NOTED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER SE TX AND WRN LA WHICH ALLOWED
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. VISBYS HAVE IMPROVED
SOME EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND
SPACE RANGING FROM LESS THAN ONE MILE TO FIVE MILES. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF A
MARKSVILLE TO CAMERON LINE.
FURTHERMORE...IN AREAS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR...ENOUGH
COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
50S...WHILE ACRS THE ERN ZONES WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
OVERCAST...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S.
DISCUSSION...
EXPECT THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD LAYER TO BEGIN MIXING OUT TODAY...WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR
NEAR 70 BY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER
THAN FCST OVER THE ERN ZONES WITH OVERCAST ANTICIPATED TO LINGER
HERE A BIT LONGER.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SCT POPS FOR TUESDAY...A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET AND THE LOWER MAV POP GUIDANCE.
THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH HOWEVER...WITH RATHER MEAGER MOISTURE
RETURN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THE INITIAL LOW WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL
DRY AIR ACRS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND DRY NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY COOL WEATHER FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WRN US LATE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FROPA ON MONDAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RESUMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 70 53 73 50 67 / 0 10 40 20 10
KBPT 72 56 74 48 67 / 0 10 40 10 10
KAEX 69 48 71 45 65 / 0 10 40 10 10
KLFT 70 53 74 51 68 / 0 10 40 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...RAPIDES...VERNON.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
TYLER.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 231134
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
534 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL AND FOGGY
START TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE. LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED
BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A CLOUDY SKY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHERE THE SKY WAS CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THE FOG MAY BECOME MORE DENSE BY SUNRISE AND CONTINUE INTO
THE MID MORNING AROUND 9 AM. WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWED
OUR NEXT TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS IT WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW EAST WITH A
COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFFECT ZONES IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINING ZONES DURING
THE DAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND WILL KEEP WORDING
IN THE ZONES AS SHOWERS. WITH THE FRONT QUICKLY MOVING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WILL
END RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE PROVIDING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. ANOTHER
REINFORCING SUPPLY OF COOL AND DRY AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE 30S NEAR
THANKSGIVING WITH SOME AREAS DIPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MAY SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE EARLY START
TO THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF RETURNING AROUND ITS
BACK SIDE SETTING UP OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HAVE STAYED NEAR THE GFS AND GFSX MOS
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
STARTING OUT THE MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AT THE AREA TERMINALS WITH
MOSTLY MVFR/IFR VSBYS BUT CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS COULD FALL TO LIFR/VLIFR VSBY CATEGORIES. THIS WILL BE A
LAST MINUTE CALL CONCERNING THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. CONCERNING
CEILINGS...WILL LIKELY GO WITH PREVAILING LIFR CEILINGS WITH A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS AT MLU/ELD TERMINALS AND A MORE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE AT THE E TX TERMINALS. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST WEST OF OUR E TX TERMINALS BY 24/12Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG WITH LOW CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
AND WILL THUS MAKE THIS MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 52 67 41 65 / 0 30 40 10 0
MLU 69 49 69 42 65 / 0 20 40 20 0
DEQ 67 48 64 33 61 / 0 40 30 0 0
TXK 69 51 65 38 63 / 0 30 30 0 0
ELD 70 50 65 40 65 / 0 20 40 20 0
TYR 72 52 65 41 63 / 0 30 30 0 0
GGG 72 51 66 40 64 / 0 30 30 0 0
LFK 74 51 68 40 65 / 0 20 40 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/13
000
FXUS64 KLCH 231048
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
448 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW LIFTING
OFF TO THE NE WITH THE AREA UNDER PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED UPSTREAM IS MOVING OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS PROVIDING LIGHT
VARIABLE WINDS. A LARGE SWATH OF STRATUS PERSISTS OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WEST INTO THE SABINE VALLEY UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
THESE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED WESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE
WESTERNMOST EDGE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY LFK TO BPT. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WERE NOTED EARLIER TONIGHT OVER SE TX AND WRN LA WHICH ALLOWED
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG. VISBYS HAVE IMPROVED
SOME EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND
SPACE RANGING FROM LESS THAN ONE MILE TO FIVE MILES. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID MORNING...MAINLY WEST OF A
MARKSVILLE TO CAMERON LINE.
FURTHERMORE...IN AREAS WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR...ENOUGH
COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER
50S...WHILE ACRS THE ERN ZONES WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED
OVERCAST...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD LAYER TO BEGIN MIXING OUT TODAY...WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE A MODEST RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL. EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S OR
NEAR 70 BY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT UPON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY A BIT COOLER
THAN FCST OVER THE ERN ZONES WITH OVERCAST ANTICIPATED TO LINGER
HERE A BIT LONGER.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SCT POPS FOR TUESDAY...A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE HIGHER MET AND THE LOWER MAV POP GUIDANCE.
THIS MAY BE A BIT HIGH HOWEVER...WITH RATHER MEAGER MOISTURE
RETURN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THE INITIAL LOW WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS TROUGH BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL
DRY AIR ACRS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND DRY NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY COOL WEATHER FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WRN US LATE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING SUNDAY AFTN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FROPA ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET.
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW RESUMING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 70 53 73 50 / 0 10 40 20
KBPT 72 56 74 48 / 0 10 40 10
KAEX 69 48 71 45 / 0 10 40 10
KLFT 70 53 74 51 / 0 10 40 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALLEN-
AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-EVANGELINE-JEFFERSON
DAVIS-RAPIDES-VERNON.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HARDIN-JASPER-
JEFFERSON-NEWTON-ORANGE-TYLER.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
000
FXUS64 KLIX 230919
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
319 AM CST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. A SECOND SURFACE LOW IS TAKING SHAPE NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
LOCALLY...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND SHOULD ONLY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO BEFORE SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NOT SURE WHY...BUT
THE NAM IS CARRYING 60 TO 70 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EVEN THOUGH IT FORECASTS NO ACTUAL
QPF. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH FORECAST A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS. WITH LITTLE TO NO RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOISTURE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY
STILL OVERDONE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
A REINFORCING HIGH WILL BRING COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER
THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING ABOUT ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. EXPECT
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH OF THE TIDAL
LAKES. HIGH SHOULD GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA. LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE COOLING AND WE SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR. THE MODELS TYPICALLY TEND TO UNDER FORECAST THE
AMOUNT OF COOLING IN THIS KIND OF SITUATION...SO WILL UNDERCUT
MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. THE RESULT IS A FORECAST FOR NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO A WARMING TREND AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY
IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY IFR TO LIFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HRS. MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A
STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 300 AND 1K FT BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING AROUND 15Z.
AFTER 15Z ALL TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FINALLY EXPECTED AROUND 18Z. VISBIES WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS LIGHT FG AND BR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
ALSO AS CIGS FALL THEY COULD TEMPORARILY DROP ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND CAUSING VISBIES OF 1/2-1SM TO OCCUR. VISBIES SHOULD IMPROVE
TO ABV 6SM BY 15Z.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS THROUGH MIDDAY TUE. LATE TUE A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SAME A WAVE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE SRN END OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF. BOTH OF
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO WINDS AND SEAS PICKING UP SOME WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES POSSIBLY NEEDED WED. STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SHOULD
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN NW OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRI LEADING TO OFFSHORE FLOW DURING THAT TIME. A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL OCCUR THANKSGIVING DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE
CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN
AND SMALL CRAFT ADV MAY BE NECESSARY THU AND THU NIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO REDEVELOP SUN AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MORE TWRDS THE ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 67 48 71 48 / 0 0 10 20
BTR 70 50 73 50 / 0 0 20 20
MSY 69 54 72 54 / 0 0 10 20
GPT 66 50 71 52 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION/MARINE...CAB
REST OF DISCUSSION...95/DM
000
FXUS64 KLCH 230541
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1141 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WILL BE DENSE AT TIMES ALTHOUGH BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP... FOG IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BURN-OFF AROUND 15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR/ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF A MOIST GROUND...CALM WINDS...AND LACK OF DAYTIME
HEATING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
NEAR THE DEWPOINT VALUES THIS EVENING OVER SE TX/C AND SW LA...FORMING
PATCHY FOG. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THROUGH MID MONDAY
MORNING. THUS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED THRU 9 AM. LEFT ACADIANA
(SC LA) OUT FOR NOW...STILL SOME QUESTION ON CLOUD COVER EXIT
TIMING AND LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VIS NOT LOWERING AS MUCH AS
REMAINDER OF AREA. WITH THE ADVANCED COOLING...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS WELL...EXPECTING LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
AVIATION...
STRATO-CU SHIELD HAS CLEARED LCH ATTM WITH A SLOW CLRG CONTD XPTD
FOR LCTNS TO THE EAST. VFR WEST OF LCH WHILE MVFR/IFR FOR CLD CVR
WILL CONT THRU MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...AREAS FRIDAY/SATURDAY WEATHER MAKER NOW OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
ORIENTATION OF FEATURES PROVIDING A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND FLORIDA LOW MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA WITH MOISTURE LOCKED BENEATH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL INVERSION. OTHERWISE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
LIMITED CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRID/FORECAST PACKAGE. MAINTAINING POPS
TUESDAY AS NEXT UPPER TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUNCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING A LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH FROPA. THUS AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW END
POPS. DID NOTE MORE MOISTURE/HIGHER POPS OFFERED BY THE NAM BUT
WILL BE DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK LOOKING DRY AND COOL AS EAST CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND PLAINS
RIDGES AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A REENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR COMING
DOWN THE PIKE THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS SUNDAY. GFS
SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER FROPA. ECMWF SUGGESTING A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF SAME BOUNDARY AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER OLD
MEXICO. LATER SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK BUT OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST.
MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING
EASTERLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES TO THE EAST. A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS MODERATE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 46 73 53 72 51 / 0 0 10 20 20
KBPT 45 72 57 73 50 / 0 0 20 30 10
KAEX 43 71 49 70 45 / 0 0 10 20 10
KLFT 46 71 52 73 50 / 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...RAPIDES...VERNON.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
TYLER.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 230531
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WAS
NOTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES LATE THIS EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL LIFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING. STRATUS DECK HAS GRADUALLY
LOWERED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. VLIFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z MONDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z OR 18Z MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. A MUCH DRIER SOUNDING
ABOVE 875 MILLIBARS WITH A PW OF 0.73 INCHES. A LOW STRATUS DECK
OF CLOUDS REMAINS IN PLACE WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR
ZERO DEGREES BELOW 875 MILLIBARS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY AT
THE SURFACE AND WESTERLY ALOFT. WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY PRESENT NEAR THE
SURFACE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND
POTENTIAL FOG. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS WESTWARD TO SABINE RIVER AND WELL
INTO THE GULF. A FEW BREAKS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. GIVEN THE AMBIENT GROUND MOISTURE
AND NO REAL FLUSHING OF MOISTURE FROM TROUGH PASSAGE...WOULD SEEM
THIS DECK WILL SETTLE INTO AN EXTENSIVE FOG BANK OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOLD OFF WITH PRE-EMPTIVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND LET EVENING SHIFT
MONITOR TRENDS AS THE DIFFERENCE COULD MEAN JUST A LOW CEILING AND
NEGLIGIBLE FOG...OR A FULL FLEDGED DENSE FOG BANK. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL MUCH LOWER THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
CURRENT TEMPERATURES. MONDAY SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...
NEXT FRONT EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS TO COME
THROUGH ESSENTIALLY DRY. NO CHANGES MADE TO WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE
GRIDS AS CURRENT TRENDS AND MODELS SUPPORT LATEST FORECAST. THE
REGION GETS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING PERIOD WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF TIL THE
WEEKEND WITH APPROACH OF LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF.
MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING AS AFFECTS FROM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ABATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK FRONT
ENTERS GULF TUESDAY NIGHT TO PROVIDE HIGH PRESSURE RE-ENFORCEMENT
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IMPLYING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND GETTING FORCED SOUTHWARD
BY THE FRONT. IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO HIGHER LEVELS AND PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 50 69 48 71 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 48 71 49 73 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 54 70 52 73 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 52 70 50 71 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 230303
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
903 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO ADD FOG TO FCST. LATEST MODEL RUNS HINTING AT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. EASTERN SECTIONS OF AREA SEEING LOWERING CIGS...WITH
PATCHY FOG CURRENTLY DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH CALM WINDS. FURTHER
WEST...WINDS REMAIN LIGHT BUT MORE CLEAR SKY AREAS...LEADING TO
RADIAION COOLING. CLOUD FCST TRICKY OVERNIGHT...AS 0Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THIN MOIST LAYERS...AT DIFFERENT HEIGHTS DEPENDING ON
ROAB. SO WILL LET MID SHIFT DECIDE WHETHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO COME TOGETHER. RAISED OVERNIGHT TEMPS SLIGHTLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT DEWPOINT TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED WIND SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY ON GRIDS...AND INCREASED EAST TO WEST SKY COVER GRADIENT./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO HANG ON AT KMLU...BUT BY 23/06Z KMLU SHOULD BE
VFR. LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 23/10Z AND
23/15Z MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG. AFTER
23/15Z VSBYS SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR. AT THE KLFK AND KMLU TAF
SITES...BETWEEN 23/10Z AND 23/15Z...MVFR OR IFR CIGS MAY ALSO OCCUR.
THESE MVFR AND/OR IFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE
MOIST GROUND FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL...AND THE LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 24/06Z.
&&
03
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 47 71 52 67 42 / 0 10 30 40 10
MLU 46 69 48 69 43 / 0 10 20 40 20
DEQ 43 68 48 64 34 / 0 10 40 30 0
TXK 47 69 51 65 42 / 0 10 30 30 0
ELD 43 70 49 65 40 / 0 10 20 40 20
TYR 47 72 52 65 41 / 0 10 30 30 0
GGG 45 72 51 65 39 / 0 10 30 30 0
LFK 45 74 51 68 42 / 0 10 20 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 230152
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
752 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR/ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF A MOIST GROUND...CALM WINDS...AND LACK OF DAYTIME
HEATING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
NEAR THE DEWPOINT VALUES THIS EVENING OVER SE TX/C AND SW LA...FORMING
PATCHY FOG. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL OVERNIGHT...PATCHY
FOG WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THROUGH MID MONDAY
MORNING. THUS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED THRU 9 AM. LEFT ACADIANA
(SC LA) OUT FOR NOW...STILL SOME QUESTION ON CLOUD COVER EXIT
TIMING AND LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS VIS NOT LOWERING AS MUCH AS
REMAINDER OF AREA. WITH THE ADVANCED COOLING...LOWERED OVERNIGHT
LOWS AS WELL...EXPECTING LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
AVIATION...
STRATO-CU SHIELD HAS CLEARED LCH ATTM WITH A SLOW CLRG CONTD XPTD
FOR LCTNS TO THE EAST. VFR WEST OF LCH WHILE MVFR/IFR FOR CLD CVR
WILL CONT THRU MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...AREAS FRIDAY/SATURDAY WEATHER MAKER NOW OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
ORIENTATION OF FEATURES PROVIDING A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND FLORIDA LOW MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA WITH MOISTURE LOCKED BENEATH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL INVERSION. OTHERWISE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
LIMITED CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRID/FORECAST PACKAGE. MAINTAINING POPS
TUESDAY AS NEXT UPPER TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUNCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING A LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH FROPA. THUS AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW END
POPS. DID NOTE MORE MOISTURE/HIGHER POPS OFFERED BY THE NAM BUT
WILL BE DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK LOOKING DRY AND COOL AS EAST CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND PLAINS
RIDGES AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A REENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR COMING
DOWN THE PIKE THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS SUNDAY. GFS
SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER FROPA. ECMWF SUGGESTING A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF SAME BOUNDARY AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER OLD
MEXICO. LATER SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK BUT OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST.
MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING
EASTERLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES TO THE EAST. A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS MODERATE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 46 73 53 72 51 / 0 0 10 20 20
KBPT 45 72 57 73 50 / 0 0 20 30 10
KAEX 43 71 49 70 45 / 0 0 10 20 10
KLFT 46 71 52 73 50 / 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...EVANGELINE...JEFFERSON DAVIS...RAPIDES...VERNON.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
TYLER.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 230040
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
640 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
STRATO-CU SHIELD HAS CLEARED LCH ATTM WITH A SLOW CLRG CONTD XPTD
FOR LCTNS TO THE EAST. VFR WEST OF LCH WHILE MVFR/IFR FOR CLD CVR
WILL CONT THRU MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...AREAS FRIDAY/SATURDAY WEATHER MAKER NOW OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
ORIENTATION OF FEATURES PROVIDING A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND FLORIDA LOW MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA WITH MOISTURE LOCKED BENEATH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL INVERSION. OTHERWISE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
LIMITED CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRID/FORECAST PACKAGE. MAINTAINING POPS
TUESDAY AS NEXT UPPER TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUNCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING A LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH FROPA. THUS AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW END
POPS. DID NOTE MORE MOISTURE/HIGHER POPS OFFERED BY THE NAM BUT
WILL BE DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK LOOKING DRY AND COOL AS EAST CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND PLAINS
RIDGES AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A REENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR COMING
DOWN THE PIKE THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS SUNDAY. GFS
SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER FROPA. ECMWF SUGGESTING A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF SAME BOUNDARY AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER OLD
MEXICO. LATER SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK BUT OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST.
MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING
EASTERLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES TO THE EAST. A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS MODERATE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 49 73 53 72 50 / 0 0 10 20 20
KBPT 48 72 57 73 50 / 0 0 20 30 10
KAEX 50 71 49 70 45 / 0 0 10 20 10
KLFT 52 71 52 73 50 / 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 222141
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
341 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS
AROUND 60. MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE WITH SOME MEASURE OF A DAY
WORTH OF SUNSHINE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WE ARE FAIRLY ZONAL
ALOFT WITH LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT OR LONG TERM WITH NEXT BRIEF CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL STILL LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY...AND STILL MAY BE THE LAST RAIN
FOR AWHILE WITH DRY NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENTS ON THE THANKSGIVING
DAY. FRIDAY MORNING MAY STILL SEE A LITTLE TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT CCA
FOR A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EARLY FRIDAY...BUT MODEL NUMBERS ARE COLD
AND WE MAY TREND COLDER IF GFS IS SIMILAR AT 00Z. RIGHT NOW THE
HIGH IS MODELED BY GFS 1026MB AND EURO 1023 MB TO DRIFT OVER THE
CWA BY EARLY SATURDAY...SO CHILLY AGAIN EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MAYBE STABLE OR DRIFTING UP A DEGREE OR FEW BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY
WITH RETURN FLOW UNDERWAY. PROBABLY SOME GOOD FROST ANYWAY...BUT
WE/LL SEE BETTER THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH WITH A
FEW MORE MODEL RUNS. LOOKS COLDEST NOW FOR EARLY IN DECEMBER WITH
A 1042 HIGH ON GFS...BUT EURO IS DEEPER ON A WESTERN TROUGH
BRINGING IN A MUCH WETTER SCENARIO FOR THE NEW MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL SITES HAVE GONE TO VFR EXCEPT MLU WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN
ALL DAY KEEPING THEM IN MVFR CIGS. BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS BASED ON
SATELLITE STRETCHES FROM EAST OF ELD TO JUST EAST OF SHV SOUTH ALONG
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. SITES TO THE WEST HAVE GONE SKC FOR THE
MOST PART AND HAVE VFR. MLU LOOKS TO BE LOCKED INTO THE MVFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SITES AREA WIDE WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY DUE TO
PATCHY FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 47 71 52 67 42 / 0 10 30 40 10
MLU 46 69 48 69 43 / 0 10 20 40 20
DEQ 43 68 48 64 34 / 0 10 40 30 0
TXK 47 69 51 65 42 / 0 10 30 30 0
ELD 43 70 49 65 40 / 0 10 20 40 20
TYR 47 72 52 65 41 / 0 10 30 30 0
GGG 45 72 51 65 39 / 0 10 30 30 0
LFK 45 74 51 68 42 / 0 10 20 40 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/04
000
FXUS64 KLCH 222032
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
232 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...AREAS FRIDAY/SATURDAY WEATHER MAKER NOW OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
ORIENTATION OF FEATURES PROVIDING A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND FLORIDA LOW MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA WITH MOISTURE LOCKED BENEATH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL INVERSION. OTHERWISE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING IN MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
LIMITED CHANGES TO PREVIOUS GRID/FORECAST PACKAGE. MAINTAINING POPS
TUESDAY AS NEXT UPPER TROF ADVANCES THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUNCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF AND
GFS SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING A LACK OF
MOISTURE WITH FROPA. THUS AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW END
POPS. DID NOTE MORE MOISTURE/HIGHER POPS OFFERED BY THE NAM BUT
WILL BE DISCOUNTING THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK LOOKING DRY AND COOL AS EAST CONUS TROF DEEPENS AND PLAINS
RIDGES AMPLIFIES. WILL SEE A REENFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR COMING
DOWN THE PIKE THURSDAY.
WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAINS SUNDAY. GFS
SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER FROPA. ECMWF SUGGESTING A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF SAME BOUNDARY AS CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER OLD
MEXICO. LATER SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
MOVING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW WEEK BUT OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...BECOMING
EASTERLY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES TO THE EAST. A MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS MODERATE NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 48 73 53 72 50 / 0 0 10 20 20
KBPT 48 72 57 73 50 / 0 0 20 30 10
KAEX 45 71 49 70 45 / 0 0 10 20 10
KLFT 51 71 52 73 50 / 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MARCOTTE
000
FXUS64 KLIX 222020
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
220 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD DECK AND
POTENTIAL FOG. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS WESTWARD TO SABINE RIVER AND WELL
INTO THE GULF. A FEW BREAKS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. GIVEN THE AMBIENT GROUND MOISTURE
AND NO REAL FLUSHING OF MOISTURE FROM TROUGH PASSAGE...WOULD SEEM
THIS DECK WILL SETTLE INTO AN EXTENSIVE FOG BANK OVERNIGHT. WILL
HOLD OFF WITH PRE-EMPTIVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND LET EVENING SHIFT
MONITOR TRENDS AS THE DIFFERENCE COULD MEAN JUST A LOW CEILING AND
NEGLIGIBLE FOG...OR A FULL FLEDGED DENSE FOG BANK. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL MUCH LOWER THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM
CURRENT TEMPERATURES. MONDAY SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...
NEXT FRONT EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT STILL APPEARS TO COME
THROUGH ESSENTIALLY DRY. NO CHANGES MADE TO WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE
GRIDS AS CURRENT TRENDS AND MODELS SUPPORT LATEST FORECAST. THE
REGION GETS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING PERIOD WITH COOL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY WEATHER WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF TIL THE
WEEKEND WITH APPROACH OF LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH ALL SITES FINALLY P6SM...BUT
DON/T EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR MSY AND OVER GPT. NOT EXPECTING
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BUT VIS/CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR FOR SHORT PERIODS
OF TIME. VIS WILL HOVER AROUND THE MVFR/VFR LINE AND CIGS NEAR
LIFR/IFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...CIGS AND VIS WILL
FALL WITH TIME. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. VLIFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLY VIS AS WELL CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SUNRISE. ALL
CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW AROUND MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. GPT WILL LIKELY BE THE
LAST TO SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS. MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF LOWERING AS AFFECTS FROM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ABATE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TO
MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK FRONT
ENTERS GULF TUESDAY NIGHT TO PROVIDE HIGH PRESSURE RE-ENFORCEMENT
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IMPLYING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND GETTING FORCED SOUTHWARD
BY THE FRONT. IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY BUILD TO HIGHER LEVELS AND PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL INDICATE AN INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE OUTER
WATERS AND SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 50 69 48 71 / 0 0 10 10
BTR 48 71 49 73 / 0 0 10 10
MSY 54 70 52 73 / 0 0 10 10
GPT 52 70 50 71 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
24/RR
MEFFER
000
FXUS64 KLIX 221824
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1224 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE THE AREA.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
DON/T EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES. VIS WILL HOVER AROUND THE IFR/MVFR
LINE AND CIGS NEAR LIFR/IFR. OVERNIGHT...CIGS AND VIS WILL FALL
WITH TIME. VLIFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VIS AS WELL CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR SUNRISE. ALL CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY TOMORROW
AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
GPT WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST TO SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 800
MB WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE IS 0.87 INCHES. A STRATUS DECK IS PRESENT NEAR 300
FEET...MIST REDUCED THE VISIBILITY TO 2 SM AT LAUNCH. WESTERLY
WINDS DOMINATE THE ATMOSPHERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SHORT TERM...SFC LOW IS TAKING A MUCH SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH TRACK THAN EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID THE MID LVL
DISTURBANCE ACTUALLY DUG SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND ALL OF THE ACCENT HAS
SHIFTED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LEAVING MOST THE AREA
BASICALLY UNDER A LAYER OF STRATUS WITH MIST AND LIGHT DRIZZLE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE BOTH THE SFC AND MID LVL SYSTEMS TO
SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST RESPECTIVELY OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A LAYER OF STRATUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVN/OVERNIGHT. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST DAY WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO WARM MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS...PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 5
DEGREES ALL DAY.
MON THROUGH TUE...WE WILL REMAIN QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SFC. WE WILL BASICALLY BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW AND B/T BOTH
THE POLAR JET AND SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH CLOUDS
OUT OF THE AREA AND WITH RATHER DRY LOW AND MID LVLS IN PLACE WE
WILL BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES MON THROUGH MIDDAY TUE BEFORE WE START TO
SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS MON
WILL BE AROUND 10-11C AT H925. COMBINE THAT WITH THE SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AND HIGHS MON SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREE WARMER. LL TEMPS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TUE AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING FRONT HIGHS TUE
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /CAB/
LONG TERM...CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN THE
EXTENDED WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE NIGHT AND A COOL
AND DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. ALSO THIS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
OUR FIRST FREEZING TEMPS OF THE SEASON AT THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. OVERALL SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FCST AND WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND SUPPORT
FROM THE GFES I WILL START OFF WITH THE GFS/MEX AND DEVIATE WHERE I
BELIEVE WE CAN MAKE IMPROVEMENTS.
TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MDLS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEY ALL AGREE THAT WE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN IS STILL LIMITED AND AS PREV
FCSTER MENTIONED WE ACTUALLY HAVE MOISTURE DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THIS I HAVE STUCK JUST WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV/MEX LATE TUE AFTN/OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
THANKSGIVING...A QUIET AND COOLER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR YOUR
TURKEY DAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL START TO DIG SOUTH OUT OF S-CNTRL
CANADA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GRT LAKES REGION BEFORE CARVING OUT
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE PLAINS TWRDS OUR AREA WITH CAA BEGINNING OVER OUR
CWA. LOWS THAT MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. OTHER
THAN THAT SKIES WILL BE SUNNY PROVIDING A NICE COOL...DRY...AND SUNNY
DAY.
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE COULD FINALLY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS TOUCH THE FREEZING POINT FRI AND SAT MORNINGS(BEST CHANCE
WILL BE SAT MORNING). THE DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER NWRLY FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THAT COLDER AIR
MASS FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THU NIGHT WE WILL BE UNDER A STRONG CAA REGIME AND THIS WILL
HELP TEMPS DROP NICELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOW DUE TO CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH BEING OFF TO OUR WEST AND THE STRONG CAA...WINDS WILL
ACTUALLY REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WOULDN`T PROMOTE TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT BUT WITH A PURELY CAA SCENARIO SETTING UP WE COULD
OVERACHIEVE AND SEE TEMPS APPROACH THE DEWPOINTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NRN 3RD OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. DUE TO THAT I HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 DEGREES BELOW MEX FRI MORNING BUT KEEPS EVERYONE
ABV FREEZING STILL. NOW ON FRI NIGHT THINGS WILL BE A TAD DIFFERENT.
FIRST OFF HIGHS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A LITTLE OF A HEAD START AS WE
HEAD INTO THE NIGHT. SECOND THE SFC HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION THUS PROVIDING CALM WINDS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
AND CLEAR SKIES AND RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OPTIMAL. IF ALL
OF THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MDLS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THEN IT SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK.
SINCE THIS IS ACTUALLY DAY 6 THE MEX LOOKS LIKE IT IS HIGHLY
UNDERESTIMATING AND TRYING TO GO CLOSER TO CLIMO. DUE TO THAT AND
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND THE GFES I HAVE
GONE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUI AND THIS MAY STILL NOT BE NEARLY
ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE ANYONE AT FREEZING YET BUT IF THE
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS THEN WE SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS DROP
TO OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. DURING THE DAY SAT THE SFC HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN
PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD START TO MODERATE OUR AIRMASS. /CAB/
AVIATION...
PRELIMINARY 12Z TAF DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...CURRENT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND BECOME PREVALENT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-DAY...BUT VFR CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED MUCH
BEFORE 23/06Z. AT THAT POINT...WITH LIGHT WINDS...VSBYS MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM. 35
MARINE...
WINDS FINALLY EASING SOMEWHAT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. ALL MAIN
OBSERVING SITES BELOW 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR SPLL1...WHICH IS AT 22
KNOTS. THIS WIND OB IS AT 40 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO SURFACE
WINDS LIKELY BELOW THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD. WILL DROP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BUT KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH 18Z. WILL DROP HEADLINE
FROM TIDAL LAKES. AS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL...DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
PICK BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. NO FURTHER FLAGS ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 47 69 47 73 / 10 0 10 10
BTR 46 71 49 73 / 10 0 10 10
MSY 52 70 52 74 / 10 0 10 10
GPT 50 70 49 73 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 221725
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1125 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 22/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A FRONTAL
INVERSION CREATING EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS...FROM KBPT EASTWARD.
ONLY TAF SITE THAT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL
BE KBPT...AS THAT SITE IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.
EXPECT CLEARING THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ERODES CLOUD FIELD.
HOWEVER...WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THEN EXPECT
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY AS SOLAR
HEATING MIXES OUT THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
UPDATE...NEW DISCUSSION AVAILABLE.
DISCUSSION...HAVE TWEAKED CLOUD COVER GRIDS. THIN RIBBON OF
MOISTURE LOCKED BELOW FRONTAL INVERSION MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS LOUISIANA AND JUST CROSSING THE SABINE INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH
HANDLING SUCH A FEATURE. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...WITH AN OPTIMISTIC
THINNING/ERODING OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEW ZONES
ALREADY OUT.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT
IS LOCATED OVER SE LA. CIGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVERNIGHT...AROUND 1500 FT AT KAEX AND 500 FT AT KLFT AND KARA. A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HAS RESULTED IN VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS AT
KBPT AND KLCH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO HANG ON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY NE. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AT
SRN TAF SITES BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NWRLY WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW THIS MORNING OVER SE LOUISIANA FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
HEADING THROUGH CENTRAL MS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS STILL AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA PER IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A BLANKET OF MARINE STRATUS ALSO NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHILE THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. AMID THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
HIGH AND THE RECENTLY RAINED UPON GROUNDS...RADIATION FOG
FORMATION WILL BE OF CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS MIXED ON WHETHER THIS WILL TRANSPIRE AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS IS
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUGGEST IT MAY BE A PROBLEM.
ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBILITY...A QUIET SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE ON
TAP...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY BECOMING NEAR CALM
TONIGHT...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND THAT IT WILL BE
LEAN ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF AND THE POLAR JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO LOW
END CHANCE CATEGORY OVER EAST TEXAS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE
BEST MOISTURE POOLING.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
US AT LEAST MATCHING OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR
40 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS...IT
COULD VERY WELL BE COLDER THAN THIS.
MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW BACK TO THE
GULF WATERS THAT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 65 45 72 54 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
KBPT 67 48 73 56 70 / 0 0 0 20 30
KAEX 61 43 71 49 68 / 10 0 0 10 20
KLFT 63 46 70 51 72 / 10 0 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 221711
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1111 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP WITH SOME 5 TO 6 KFT DECK OVER THE
HEART OF THE CWA. ALSO...A BROAD DECK OF 1 TO 2 KFT DECK LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE STUBBORN FROM TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY ACROSS NE LA. TEMPS
GRIDDED WELL AND ONLY MADE SOME HOURLY CHANGES. BASICALLY REMOVING
MORNING WORDING FROM PREVIOUSLY ISSUED TEXT PRODUCTS. MINOR
CHANGES TO SKY AND REMOVED 20 POP FOR EAST AS ANY PRECIP AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE DZ AND/OR NOT MEASURABLE. /24/
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL SITES HAVE GONE TO VFR EXCEPT MLU WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE
LINGERING IN. VFR CONDITIONS AT SHV..ELD..AND TXK EXIST ALTHOUGH
SKIES ARE STILL OVERCAST..BUT IMPROVING RAPIDLY AND WILL CLEAR OUT
BY 18Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR RAPIDLY AFTER 16Z AT MLU AND
EXPECT GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO MONDAY
AREAWIDE WITH EXCEPTION BEING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY DUE TO PATCHY FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 65 44 72 52 66 / 10 0 10 30 40
MLU 63 44 70 49 68 / 10 0 10 20 40
DEQ 66 42 69 47 62 / 0 0 10 40 30
TXK 65 44 70 50 64 / 0 0 10 30 30
ELD 63 43 70 50 66 / 10 0 10 20 40
TYR 67 46 72 52 66 / 0 0 10 30 30
GGG 67 44 72 52 66 / 0 0 10 30 30
LFK 68 44 74 53 68 / 0 0 10 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/04
000
FXUS64 KLCH 221648
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1048 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...NEW DISCUSSION AVAILABLE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...HAVE TWEAKED CLOUD COVER GRIDS. THIN RIBBON OF
MOISTURE LOCKED BELOW FRONTAL INVERSION MAINTAINING CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCU ACROSS LOUISIANA AND JUST CROSSING THE SABINE INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS. MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH
HANDLING SUCH A FEATURE. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...WITH AN OPTIMISTIC
THINNING/ERODING OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NEW ZONES
ALREADY OUT.
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT
IS LOCATED OVER SE LA. CIGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVERNIGHT...AROUND 1500 FT AT KAEX AND 500 FT AT KLFT AND KARA. A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HAS RESULTED IN VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS AT
KBPT AND KLCH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO HANG ON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY NE. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AT
SRN TAF SITES BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NWRLY WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW THIS MORNING OVER SE LOUISIANA FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
HEADING THROUGH CENTRAL MS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS STILL AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA PER IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A BLANKET OF MARINE STRATUS ALSO NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHILE THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. AMID THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
HIGH AND THE RECENTLY RAINED UPON GROUNDS...RADIATION FOG
FORMATION WILL BE OF CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS MIXED ON WHETHER THIS WILL TRANSPIRE AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS IS
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUGGEST IT MAY BE A PROBLEM.
ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBILITY...A QUIET SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE ON
TAP...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY BECOMING NEAR CALM
TONIGHT...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND THAT IT WILL BE
LEAN ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF AND THE POLAR JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO LOW
END CHANCE CATEGORY OVER EAST TEXAS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE
BEST MOISTURE POOLING.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
US AT LEAST MATCHING OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR
40 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS...IT
COULD VERY WELL BE COLDER THAN THIS.
MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW BACK TO THE
GULF WATERS THAT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 65 45 72 54 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
KBPT 67 48 73 56 70 / 0 0 0 20 30
KAEX 61 43 71 49 68 / 10 0 0 10 20
KLFT 63 46 70 51 72 / 10 0 0 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 221305
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
705 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 800
MB WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUE IS 0.87 INCHES. A STRATUS DECK IS PRESENT NEAR 300
FEET...MIST REDUCED THE VISIBILITY TO 2 SM AT LAUNCH. WESTERLY
WINDS DOMINATE THE ATMOSPHERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SHORT TERM...SFC LOW IS TAKING A MUCH SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH TRACK THAN EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID THE MID LVL
DISTURBANCE ACTUALLY DUG SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND ALL OF THE ACCENT HAS
SHIFTED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LEAVING MOST THE AREA
BASICALLY UNDER A LAYER OF STRATUS WITH MIST AND LIGHT DRIZZLE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE BOTH THE SFC AND MID LVL SYSTEMS TO
SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST RESPECTIVELY OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A LAYER OF STRATUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVN/OVERNIGHT. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST DAY WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO WARM MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS...PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 5
DEGREES ALL DAY.
MON THROUGH TUE...WE WILL REMAIN QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SFC. WE WILL BASICALLY BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW AND B/T BOTH
THE POLAR JET AND SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH CLOUDS
OUT OF THE AREA AND WITH RATHER DRY LOW AND MID LVLS IN PLACE WE
WILL BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES MON THROUGH MIDDAY TUE BEFORE WE START TO
SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS MON
WILL BE AROUND 10-11C AT H925. COMBINE THAT WITH THE SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AND HIGHS MON SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREE WARMER. LL TEMPS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TUE AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING FRONT HIGHS TUE
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /CAB/
LONG TERM...CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN THE
EXTENDED WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE NIGHT AND A COOL
AND DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. ALSO THIS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
OUR FIRST FREEZING TEMPS OF THE SEASON AT THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. OVERALL SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FCST AND WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND SUPPORT
FROM THE GFES I WILL START OFF WITH THE GFS/MEX AND DEVIATE WHERE I
BELIEVE WE CAN MAKE IMPROVEMENTS.
TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MDLS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEY ALL AGREE THAT WE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN IS STILL LIMITED AND AS PREV
FCSTER MENTIONED WE ACTUALLY HAVE MOISTURE DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THIS I HAVE STUCK JUST WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV/MEX LATE TUE AFTN/OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
THANKSGIVING...A QUIET AND COOLER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR YOUR
TURKEY DAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL START TO DIG SOUTH OUT OF S-CNTRL
CANADA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GRT LAKES REGION BEFORE CARVING OUT
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE PLAINS TWRDS OUR AREA WITH CAA BEGINNING OVER OUR
CWA. LOWS THAT MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. OTHER
THAN THAT SKIES WILL BE SUNNY PROVIDING A NICE COOL...DRY...AND SUNNY
DAY.
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE COULD FINALLY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS TOUCH THE FREEZING POINT FRI AND SAT MORNINGS(BEST CHANCE
WILL BE SAT MORNING). THE DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER NWRLY FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THAT COLDER AIR
MASS FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THU NIGHT WE WILL BE UNDER A STRONG CAA REGIME AND THIS WILL
HELP TEMPS DROP NICELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOW DUE TO CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH BEING OFF TO OUR WEST AND THE STRONG CAA...WINDS WILL
ACTUALLY REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WOULDN`T PROMOTE TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT BUT WITH A PURELY CAA SCENARIO SETTING UP WE COULD
OVERACHIEVE AND SEE TEMPS APPROACH THE DEWPOINTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NRN 3RD OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. DUE TO THAT I HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 DEGREES BELOW MEX FRI MORNING BUT KEEPS EVERYONE
ABV FREEZING STILL. NOW ON FRI NIGHT THINGS WILL BE A TAD DIFFERENT.
FIRST OFF HIGHS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A LITTLE OF A HEAD START AS WE
HEAD INTO THE NIGHT. SECOND THE SFC HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION THUS PROVIDING CALM WINDS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
AND CLEAR SKIES AND RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OPTIMAL. IF ALL
OF THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MDLS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THEN IT SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK.
SINCE THIS IS ACTUALLY DAY 6 THE MEX LOOKS LIKE IT IS HIGHLY
UNDERESTIMATING AND TRYING TO GO CLOSER TO CLIMO. DUE TO THAT AND
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND THE GFES I HAVE
GONE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUI AND THIS MAY STILL NOT BE NEARLY
ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE ANYONE AT FREEZING YET BUT IF THE
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS THEN WE SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS DROP
TO OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. DURING THE DAY SAT THE SFC HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN
PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD START TO MODERATE OUR AIRMASS. /CAB/
AVIATION...
PRELIMINARY 12Z TAF DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...CURRENT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND BECOME PREVALENT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-DAY...BUT VFR CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED MUCH
BEFORE 23/06Z. AT THAT POINT...WITH LIGHT WINDS...VSBYS MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM. 35
MARINE...
WINDS FINALLY EASING SOMEWHAT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. ALL MAIN
OBSERVING SITES BELOW 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR SPLL1...WHICH IS AT 22
KNOTS. THIS WIND OB IS AT 40 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO SURFACE
WINDS LIKELY BELOW THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD. WILL DROP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BUT KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH 18Z. WILL DROP HEADLINE
FROM TIDAL LAKES. AS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL...DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
PICK BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. NO FURTHER FLAGS ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 61 47 69 47 / 10 10 0 10
BTR 62 46 71 49 / 0 10 0 10
MSY 64 53 70 52 / 0 10 0 10
GPT 65 50 70 49 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 221139
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A SFC LOW THAT
IS LOCATED OVER SE LA. CIGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVERNIGHT...AROUND 1500 FT AT KAEX AND 500 FT AT KLFT AND KARA. A
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HAS RESULTED IN VARIABLE SKY CONDITIONS AT
KBPT AND KLCH. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO HANG ON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES SLOWLY NE. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AT
SRN TAF SITES BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NWRLY WINDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW THIS MORNING OVER SE LOUISIANA FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
HEADING THROUGH CENTRAL MS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS STILL AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA PER IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A BLANKET OF MARINE STRATUS ALSO NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHILE THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. AMID THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
HIGH AND THE RECENTLY RAINED UPON GROUNDS...RADIATION FOG
FORMATION WILL BE OF CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS MIXED ON WHETHER THIS WILL TRANSPIRE AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS IS
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUGGEST IT MAY BE A PROBLEM.
ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBILITY...A QUIET SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE ON
TAP...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY BECOMING NEAR CALM
TONIGHT...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND THAT IT WILL BE
LEAN ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF AND THE POLAR JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO LOW
END CHANCE CATEGORY OVER EAST TEXAS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE
BEST MOISTURE POOLING.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
US AT LEAST MATCHING OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR
40 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS...IT
COULD VERY WELL BE COLDER THAN THIS.
MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW BACK TO THE
GULF WATERS THAT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 65 45 72 54 / 0 0 0 10
KBPT 67 48 73 56 / 0 0 0 20
KAEX 61 43 71 49 / 10 0 0 10
KLFT 63 46 70 51 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...13
AVIATION...24
000
FXUS64 KSHV 221054
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
454 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF
THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. A WARM FRONT REACHED EAST
FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT
DROPPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN FOR THE EASTERN
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH. THE
AREA OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS RECEIVED THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE WEEKEND AND WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND
DECREASE IN CLOUDS MAY MAKE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO MID
MORNING. BY MID DAY EXPECT THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO
ADVANCE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR RAIN CHANCES TO
END. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. OUR NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE NORTH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING. BY MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ADVANCING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SENDING A SURFACE LOW
TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TOWARD THE UPPER MID WEST
ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY
HAVE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RAIN CHANCES END TUESDAY
NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER RE/ENFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING EITHER SIDE OF THURSDAY.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND. /06/
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST AND ONLY A
FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE CONTINUING OVER NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA WITH SKY CONDITIONS OVC035-045 AT 09Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY
VFR IS THE RULE BUT DO EXPECT FOR RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
RESULT IN PATCHY 2-4MI FOG BETWEEN 09Z-14Z AND ISOLATED 1 MI OVER
SOME TEXAS TAFS 12Z-14Z. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR RAPIDLY
AFTER 14Z AND EXPECT GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO
MONDAY WITH EXCEPTION BEING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE ON MONDAY. /01/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 65 44 72 52 66 / 10 0 10 30 40
MLU 63 44 70 49 68 / 20 0 10 20 40
DEQ 66 42 69 47 62 / 0 0 10 40 30
TXK 65 44 70 50 64 / 0 0 10 30 30
ELD 63 43 70 50 66 / 20 0 10 20 40
TYR 67 46 72 52 66 / 0 0 10 30 30
GGG 67 44 72 52 66 / 0 0 10 30 30
LFK 68 44 74 53 68 / 0 0 10 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06/01
000
FXUS64 KLCH 221027
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
427 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW THIS MORNING OVER SE LOUISIANA FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT HEADS FARTHER TO THE EAST. MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
HEADING THROUGH CENTRAL MS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS STILL AFFECTING MOST OF THE AREA PER IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A BLANKET OF MARINE STRATUS ALSO NOTED OVER THE GULF
WATERS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA TODAY
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA...WHILE THE DEPARTING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE. CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT. AMID THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
HIGH AND THE RECENTLY RAINED UPON GROUNDS...RADIATION FOG
FORMATION WILL BE OF CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW IS MIXED ON WHETHER THIS WILL TRANSPIRE AND HOW
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW...BUT LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBS OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS IS
ENOUGH TO AT LEAST SUGGEST IT MAY BE A PROBLEM.
ASIDE FROM THIS POSSIBILITY...A QUIET SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE ON
TAP...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY BECOMING NEAR CALM
TONIGHT...AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...AND THAT IT WILL BE
LEAN ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE GULF AND THE POLAR JET EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO LOW
END CHANCE CATEGORY OVER EAST TEXAS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE
BEST MOISTURE POOLING.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN
US AT LEAST MATCHING OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND NEAR
40 ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS PROGGED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS...IT
COULD VERY WELL BE COLDER THAN THIS.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A MODEST OFFSHORE FLOW BACK TO THE
GULF WATERS THAT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 65 45 72 54 / 0 0 0 10
KBPT 67 48 73 56 / 0 0 0 20
KAEX 61 43 71 49 / 10 0 0 10
KLFT 63 46 70 51 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...13
000
FXUS64 KLIX 220950
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...SFC LOW IS TAKING A MUCH SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH TRACK THAN EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. THAT SAID THE MID LVL
DISTURBANCE ACTUALLY DUG SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND ALL OF THE ACCENT HAS
SHIFTED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA LEAVING MOST THE AREA
BASICALLY UNDER A LAYER OF STRATUS WITH MIST AND LIGHT DRIZZLE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE BOTH THE SFC AND MID LVL SYSTEMS TO
SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND NORTHEAST RESPECTIVELY OUT OF THE AREA. THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A LAYER OF STRATUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVN/OVERNIGHT. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST DAY WILL LEAD TO TEMPS
STRUGGLING TO WARM MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS...PROBABLY ONLY AROUND 5
DEGREES ALL DAY.
MON THROUGH TUE...WE WILL REMAIN QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE AT THE SFC. WE WILL BASICALLY BE UNDER ZONAL FLOW AND B/T BOTH
THE POLAR JET AND SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP HIGH CLOUDS
OUT OF THE AREA AND WITH RATHER DRY LOW AND MID LVLS IN PLACE WE
WILL BE UNDER CLEAR SKIES MON THROUGH MIDDAY TUE BEFORE WE START TO
SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS MON
WILL BE AROUND 10-11C AT H925. COMBINE THAT WITH THE SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED AND HIGHS MON SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREE WARMER. LL TEMPS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TUE AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING FRONT HIGHS TUE
WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /CAB/
.LONG TERM...CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN THE
EXTENDED WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE NIGHT AND A COOL
AND DRY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. ALSO THIS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING
OUR FIRST FREEZING TEMPS OF THE SEASON AT THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. OVERALL SOME MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FCST AND WITH GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND SUPPORT
FROM THE GFES I WILL START OFF WITH THE GFS/MEX AND DEVIATE WHERE I
BELIEVE WE CAN MAKE IMPROVEMENTS.
TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MDLS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THEY ALL AGREE THAT WE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN IS STILL LIMITED AND AS PREV
FCSTER MENTIONED WE ACTUALLY HAVE MOISTURE DIVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DUE TO THIS I HAVE STUCK JUST WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV/MEX LATE TUE AFTN/OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING
WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
THANKSGIVING...A QUIET AND COOLER DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR YOUR
TURKEY DAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL START TO DIG SOUTH OUT OF S-CNTRL
CANADA AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GRT LAKES REGION BEFORE CARVING OUT
A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE PLAINS TWRDS OUR AREA WITH CAA BEGINNING OVER OUR
CWA. LOWS THAT MORNING WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER. OTHER
THAN THAT SKIES WILL BE SUNNY PROVIDING A NICE COOL...DRY...AND SUNNY
DAY.
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WE COULD FINALLY SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS TOUCH THE FREEZING POINT FRI AND SAT MORNINGS(BEST CHANCE
WILL BE SAT MORNING). THE DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA
UNDER NWRLY FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THAT COLDER AIR
MASS FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THU NIGHT WE WILL BE UNDER A STRONG CAA REGIME AND THIS WILL
HELP TEMPS DROP NICELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOW DUE TO CENTER OF THE
SFC HIGH BEING OFF TO OUR WEST AND THE STRONG CAA...WINDS WILL
ACTUALLY REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WOULDN`T PROMOTE TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT BUT WITH A PURELY CAA SCENARIO SETTING UP WE COULD
OVERACHIEVE AND SEE TEMPS APPROACH THE DEWPOINTS IN A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NRN 3RD OF THE CWA WHICH WOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. DUE TO THAT I HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 DEGREES BELOW MEX FRI MORNING BUT KEEPS EVERYONE
ABV FREEZING STILL. NOW ON FRI NIGHT THINGS WILL BE A TAD DIFFERENT.
FIRST OFF HIGHS FRI WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL GIVE US A LITTLE OF A HEAD START AS WE
HEAD INTO THE NIGHT. SECOND THE SFC HIGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION THUS PROVIDING CALM WINDS. COMBINE THAT WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
AND CLEAR SKIES AND RAD COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE OPTIMAL. IF ALL
OF THIS DEVELOPS AS THE MDLS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THEN IT SHOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS TO APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK.
SINCE THIS IS ACTUALLY DAY 6 THE MEX LOOKS LIKE IT IS HIGHLY
UNDERESTIMATING AND TRYING TO GO CLOSER TO CLIMO. DUE TO THAT AND
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS AND THE GFES I HAVE
GONE ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUI AND THIS MAY STILL NOT BE NEARLY
ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME I DON`T HAVE ANYONE AT FREEZING YET BUT IF THE
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS THEN WE SHOULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS DROP
TO OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING POINT. DURING THE DAY SAT THE SFC HIGH
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN
PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD START TO MODERATE OUR AIRMASS. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
PRELIMINARY 12Z TAF DISCUSSION...
AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...CURRENT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND BECOME PREVALENT. EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-DAY...BUT VFR CEILINGS NOT EXPECTED MUCH
BEFORE 23/06Z. AT THAT POINT...WITH LIGHT WINDS...VSBYS MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM. 35
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS FINALLY EASING SOMEWHAT AS GRADIENT WEAKENS. ALL MAIN
OBSERVING SITES BELOW 20 KNOTS...EXCEPT FOR SPLL1...WHICH IS AT 22
KNOTS. THIS WIND OB IS AT 40 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE...SO SURFACE
WINDS LIKELY BELOW THE 20 KNOT THRESHOLD. WILL DROP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BUT KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH 18Z. WILL DROP HEADLINE
FROM TIDAL LAKES. AS LOW CONTINUES TO FILL...DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
PICK BACK UP SIGNIFICANTLY. NO FURTHER FLAGS ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 61 47 69 47 / 20 10 0 10
BTR 64 46 71 49 / 10 10 0 10
MSY 68 52 70 52 / 10 10 0 10
GPT 65 50 70 49 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM: CAB
AVIATION/MARINE: 35
000
FXUS64 KLCH 220545
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS CNTRL LA THIS EVE.
THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO LIFT ACROSS SE TX ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS STILL HOLD
OVER MOST LOCATIONS. BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST SKIES ARE CLEARING
AND A BIT OF FOG/BR IS BEING REPORTED BUT CLDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR SLOWLY ACROSS SE TX THEN SRN LA AS THE UPPER LVL LOW LIFTS
TWRDS THE NE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE KEEPING IFR
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH CNTRL LA THRU SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
SFC LOW NOW OVER SE LA JUST WEST OF KPTN (JUST W OF THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASIN)...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION NW
OF THE SFC LOW OVER C LA. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT/MOD RAIN CONTINUING TO
SWIRL OVER C AND SC LA NEAR THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION. THIS PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...
CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AND COASTAL
WATERS OUT 20 NM. LEFT IT UP THRU MID FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES FOR
WINDS OF 20-25KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GREATLY BY AND AFTER MID.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
SFC LOW OFF THE LA COAST WHILE THE UPPER LVL LOW IS SITTING OVER
VERNON PARISH ATTM WITH STORMS EXTENDING FROM SE RAPIDES PARISH
INTO EASTERN VERNON PARISH. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS
SRN LA. CEILINGS BLW 010 AND VSBY LESS THAN 6SM FM RAIN/BR. WX TO
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW INDICATING SURFACE LOW JUST
OFFSHORE NEAR MARSH ISLAND. RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FEATURE.
SURFACE LOW...MID LEVEL LOW AND UPPER TROF TO ADVANCE EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAINS COMING TO AN END. REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND LOOKING PLEASANT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW...TRENDING TOWARD ZONAL ALOFT. EXPECTING SEASONABLY
WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEXT RAIN CHANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
DEPICTED SIMILARLY BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. COOLER 1025 MB HIGH
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL BRING LOWER TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD.
MARINE...WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SEAS LOWER AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THEN ADVANCES
EAST NORTHEAST. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING SOUTHERLY MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 49 67 46 72 53 / 20 0 0 0 10
KBPT 49 68 47 74 56 / 10 0 0 0 20
KAEX 48 65 43 70 47 / 50 10 0 0 10
KLFT 50 64 48 70 51 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 220433 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1033 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
FORECAST GRIDS AND PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SECOND RELEASE REQUIRED DUE TO ICING OF THE BALLOON. NO PROBLEMS
WITH THE SECOND FLIGHT THIS EVENING. VERY MOIST BELOW 680
MILLIBARS...HOWEVER VERY DRY ABOVE THAT LAYER BRINGING A PW OF 1.23
INCHES. FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN LI OF 8.0 BRINGING
MOSTLY JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. WINDS FAIRLY STRONG
FROM THE EAST AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG FROM THE SOUTH IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ESTIMATED 1006MB ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH
OF MARSH ISLAND AND MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARDS
POINTE AU FER ISLAND. IT SHOULD MOVE ASHORE AROUND 7 PM AND PLACE
THE LOWER PARISHES BRIEFLY IN WARM SECTOR FOR A SHORT DURATION
OPPORTUNITY OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. TORNADIC SUPERCELL
INDICATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS ABGOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF MS RIVER
DELTA IS MOVING RIGHT OF MEAN FLOW AND TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP CELL
WELL AWAY FROM LAND AREAS...BUT PROMPTED MARINE WARNINGS FOR
LIKELY TORNADIC WATERSPOUT. OTHER WEAKER ROTATING CELL MOVED
ASHORE NEAR CAMINADA PASS AND WEAKENED. DRY SLOT HAS WORKED AROUND
OCCLUDED LOW CIRCULATION AND APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR DEEPER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MANY FACTORS INHIBITING CONDITIONS TO
BE ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED RISK AT BEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON SITUATION THAN PAST RUNS AND
WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO GFS WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM PASSAGE AND WIND
FIELDS...THEREBY DICTATING REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS. WRAP-AROUND
CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA SUNDAY UNTIL DEFORMATION ZONE AND
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF REGION AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
OR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY TAKE PLACE AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
LOWER EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIVERGING UPON
ARRIVAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS DRY DAYS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL EACH DAY.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR HAS BE
PROTRUDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN TO IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND
TERMINALS BUT SOUTH. A LARGE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH THIS RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE LA COAST MOVES ENE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES. VIS SHOULD BE MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT DUE TO SATURATED SOIL. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TOMORROW. MEFFER
MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM AS WINDS APPEAR TO
BE INCREASING INTO CRITERIA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER LOW MOVES ASHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTINESS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 49 60 48 69 / 40 10 10 0
BTR 51 62 48 69 / 30 10 10 0
MSY 54 63 51 69 / 30 10 10 0
GPT 55 65 50 69 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 220325
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
925 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHCENTRAL LA. A SOLID
AREA OF RAIN IS CONTINUING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER NRN LA AND SRN AR TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVG
E OF KMLU AND KELD THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE WITH CLEARING FROM W TO E DURING SUNDAY. VIII.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 48 65 45 71 52 / 10 0 0 10 20
MLU 49 63 44 69 48 / 40 10 0 10 20
DEQ 44 66 43 69 47 / 10 0 0 10 30
TXK 48 65 44 69 50 / 10 0 0 10 30
ELD 47 63 42 69 50 / 20 0 0 10 20
TYR 46 67 47 72 52 / 10 0 0 10 20
GGG 46 67 45 73 50 / 10 0 0 10 20
LFK 48 68 45 74 52 / 10 0 0 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 220307
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
907 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
SFC LOW NOW OVER SE LA JUST WEST OF KPTN (JUST W OF THE LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASIN)...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION NW
OF THE SFC LOW OVER C LA. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT/MOD RAIN CONTINUING TO
SWIRL OVER C AND SC LA NEAR THE MID LEVEL REFLECTION. THIS PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...
CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AND COASTAL
WATERS OUT 20 NM. LEFT IT UP THRU MID FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES FOR
WINDS OF 20-25KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GREATLY BY AND AFTER MID.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
AVIATION...
SFC LOW OFF THE LA COAST WHILE THE UPPER LVL LOW IS SITTING OVER
VERNON PARISH ATTM WITH STORMS EXTENDING FROM SE RAPIDES PARISH
INTO EASTERN VERNON PARISH. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS
SRN LA. CEILINGS BLW 010 AND VSBY LESS THAN 6SM FM RAIN/BR. WX TO
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW INDICATING SURFACE LOW JUST
OFFSHORE NEAR MARSH ISLAND. RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FEATURE.
SURFACE LOW...MID LEVEL LOW AND UPPER TROF TO ADVANCE EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAINS COMING TO AN END. REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND LOOKING PLEASANT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW...TRENDING TOWARD ZONAL ALOFT. EXPECTING SEASONABLY
WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEXT RAIN CHANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
DEPICTED SIMILARLY BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. COOLER 1025 MB HIGH
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL BRING LOWER TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD.
MARINE...WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SEAS LOWER AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THEN ADVANCES
EAST NORTHEAST. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING SOUTHERLY MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 49 67 46 72 53 / 20 0 0 0 10
KBPT 49 68 47 74 56 / 10 0 0 0 20
KAEX 48 65 43 70 47 / 50 10 0 0 10
KLFT 50 64 48 70 51 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 220242 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
842 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.MARINE...
FORECAST GRIDS AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ARE BEING UPDATED FOR
INCLUSION OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
HEADLINED FOR LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. WINDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ESTIMATED 1006MB ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH
OF MARSH ISLAND AND MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARDS
POINTE AU FER ISLAND. IT SHOULD MOVE ASHORE AROUND 7 PM AND PLACE
THE LOWER PARISHES BRIEFLY IN WARM SECTOR FOR A SHORT DURATION
OPPORTUNITY OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. TORNADIC SUPERCELL
INDICATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS ABGOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF MS RIVER
DELTA IS MOVING RIGHT OF MEAN FLOW AND TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP CELL
WELL AWAY FROM LAND AREAS...BUT PROMPTED MARINE WARNINGS FOR
LIKELY TORNADIC WATERSPOUT. OTHER WEAKER ROTATING CELL MOVED
ASHORE NEAR CAMINADA PASS AND WEAKENED. DRY SLOT HAS WORKED AROUND
OCCLUDED LOW CIRCULATION AND APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR DEEPER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MANY FACTORS INHIBITING CONDITIONS TO
BE ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED RISK AT BEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON SITUATION THAN PAST RUNS AND
WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO GFS WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM PASSAGE AND WIND
FIELDS...THEREBY DICTATING REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS. WRAP-AROUND
CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA SUNDAY UNTIL DEFORMATION ZONE AND
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF REGION AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
OR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY TAKE PLACE AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
LOWER EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIVERGING UPON
ARRIVAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS DRY DAYS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL EACH DAY.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR HAS BE
PROTRUDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN TO IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND
TERMINALS BUT SOUTH. A LARGE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH THIS RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE LA COAST MOVES ENE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES. VIS SHOULD BE MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT DUE TO SATURATED SOIL. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TOMORROW. MEFFER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 49 60 48 69 / 80 10 10 0
BTR 51 62 48 69 / 40 10 10 0
MSY 54 63 51 69 / 70 10 10 0
GPT 55 65 50 69 / 80 20 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 220242
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
842 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
SECOND RELEASE REQUIRED DUE TO ICING OF THE BALLOON. NO PROBLEMS
WITH THE SECOND FLIGHT THIS EVENING. VERY MOIST BELOW 680
MILLIBARS...HOWEVER VERY DRY ABOVE THAT LAYER BRINGING A PW OF 1.23
INCHES. FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN LI OF 8.0 BRINGING
MOSTLY JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. WINDS FAIRLY STRONG
FROM THE EAST AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG FROM THE SOUTH IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ESTIMATED 1006MB ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH
OF MARSH ISLAND AND MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARDS
POINTE AU FER ISLAND. IT SHOULD MOVE ASHORE AROUND 7 PM AND PLACE
THE LOWER PARISHES BRIEFLY IN WARM SECTOR FOR A SHORT DURATION
OPPORTUNITY OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. TORNADIC SUPERCELL
INDICATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS ABGOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF MS RIVER
DELTA IS MOVING RIGHT OF MEAN FLOW AND TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP CELL
WELL AWAY FROM LAND AREAS...BUT PROMPTED MARINE WARNINGS FOR
LIKELY TORNADIC WATERSPOUT. OTHER WEAKER ROTATING CELL MOVED
ASHORE NEAR CAMINADA PASS AND WEAKENED. DRY SLOT HAS WORKED AROUND
OCCLUDED LOW CIRCULATION AND APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR DEEPER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MANY FACTORS INHIBITING CONDITIONS TO
BE ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED RISK AT BEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON SITUATION THAN PAST RUNS AND
WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO GFS WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM PASSAGE AND WIND
FIELDS...THEREBY DICTATING REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS. WRAP-AROUND
CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA SUNDAY UNTIL DEFORMATION ZONE AND
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF REGION AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
OR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY TAKE PLACE AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
LOWER EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIVERGING UPON
ARRIVAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS DRY DAYS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL EACH DAY.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR HAS BE
PROTRUDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN TO IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND
TERMINALS BUT SOUTH. A LARGE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH THIS RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE LA COAST MOVES ENE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES. VIS SHOULD BE MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT DUE TO SATURATED SOIL. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TOMORROW. MEFFER
MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM AS WINDS APPEAR TO
BE INCREASING INTO CRITERIA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER LOW MOVES ASHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTINESS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 49 60 48 69 / 80 10 10 0
BTR 51 62 48 69 / 40 10 10 0
MSY 54 63 51 69 / 70 10 10 0
GPT 55 65 50 69 / 80 20 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 220020
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
SFC LOW OFF THE LA COAST WHILE THE UPPER LVL LOW IS SITTING OVER
VERNON PARISH ATTM WITH STORMS EXTENDING FROM SE RAPIDES PARISH
INTO EASTERN VERNON PARISH. A BROAD AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS
SRN LA. CEILINGS BLW 010 AND VSBY LESS THAN 6SM FM RAIN/BR. WX TO
CONTINUE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW INDICATING SURFACE LOW JUST
OFFSHORE NEAR MARSH ISLAND. RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FEATURE.
SURFACE LOW...MID LEVEL LOW AND UPPER TROF TO ADVANCE EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAINS COMING TO AN END. REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND LOOKING PLEASANT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW...TRENDING TOWARD ZONAL ALOFT. EXPECTING SEASONABLY
WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEXT RAIN CHANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
DEPICTED SIMILARLY BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. COOLER 1025 MB HIGH
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL BRING LOWER TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD.
MARINE...WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SEAS LOWER AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THEN ADVANCES
EAST NORTHEAST. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING SOUTHERLY MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 49 67 46 72 53 / 20 0 0 0 10
KBPT 49 68 47 74 56 / 10 0 0 0 20
KAEX 48 65 43 70 47 / 50 10 0 0 10
KLFT 50 64 48 70 51 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 212122
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
322 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ESTIMATED 1006MB ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH
OF MARSH ISLAND AND MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KNOTS TOWARDS
POINTE AU FER ISLAND. IT SHOULD MOVE ASHORE AROUND 7 PM AND PLACE
THE LOWER PARISHES BRIEFLY IN WARM SECTOR FOR A SHORT DURATION
OPPORTUNITY OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. TORNADIC SUPERCELL
INDICATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS ABGOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF MS RIVER
DELTA IS MOVING RIGHT OF MEAN FLOW AND TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP CELL
WELL AWAY FROM LAND AREAS...BUT PROMPTED MARINE WARNINGS FOR
LIKELY TORNADIC WATERSPOUT. OTHER WEAKER ROTATING CELL MOVED
ASHORE NEAR CAMINADA PASS AND WEAKENED. DRY SLOT HAS WORKED AROUND
OCCLUDED LOW CIRCULATION AND APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO BE VIGILANT FOR DEEPER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT MANY FACTORS INHIBITING CONDITIONS TO
BE ANY MORE THAN AN ISOLATED RISK AT BEST THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON SITUATION THAN PAST RUNS AND
WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO GFS WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM PASSAGE AND WIND
FIELDS...THEREBY DICTATING REST OF FORECAST ELEMENTS. WRAP-AROUND
CLOUDS MAY REMAIN IN THE AREA SUNDAY UNTIL DEFORMATION ZONE AND
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF REGION AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES
OR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY TAKE PLACE AT TIMES SUNDAY
MORNING...WILL NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS AFTER SUNRISE
SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
LOWER EXTENSION OF COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIVERGING UPON
ARRIVAL. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS DRY DAYS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AIR HAS BE
PROTRUDING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH RAIN TO IN ALL DIRECTIONS AROUND
TERMINALS BUT SOUTH. A LARGE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
CIGS AND VIS WILL LOWER TO IFR WITH THIS RAINFALL. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE LA COAST MOVES ENE
ACROSS THE COASTAL PARISHES. VIS SHOULD BE MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH THE
NIGHT DUE TO SATURATED SOIL. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
TOMORROW. MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM AS WINDS APPEAR TO
BE INCREASING INTO CRITERIA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER LOW MOVES ASHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING. GUSTINESS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 49 60 48 69 / 80 10 10 0
BTR 51 62 48 69 / 40 10 10 0
MSY 54 63 51 69 / 70 10 10 0
GPT 55 65 50 69 / 80 20 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
24/RR
MEFFER
000
FXUS64 KSHV 212107
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
307 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
LOUISIANA GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TO THE
ALABAMA AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES...INCLUDING THE NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREA NEAR MONROE...AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP INTO LOUISIANA. LATE TONIGHT RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
THE PERIOD OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRY IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. THE NEXT POSSIBLE RAIN MAKER WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS PROBABLY WONT BE AS EFFICIENT A RAIN MAKER AS THIS PAST UPPER
LOW SYSTEM THAT MOVED ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE FRONT WONT HAVE AS
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT IT WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SOMETIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY ALTHOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR STATE AREA
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS TO BE RATHER CHILLY FOR THANKSGIVING
AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW OUT OVER THE GULF IS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF KLFT AND SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. THE UPPER LOW IS OVER KLCH. MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IS MOSTLY IN THE MID LEVELS OVER OUR CWA WITH VFR
CONTINUING FOR ALL BUT KLFK WHERE MVFR IS LINGERING. CIGS ARE
DROPPING A BIT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT WILL KEEP VFR THIS
PM...BUT CANT RULE OUT IFR/MVFR FOR A COUPLE OR FEW TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N/NE FOR OUR TERMINALS AND WILL
KEEP LESS THAN 10 KTS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. LOOK FOR THE RAIN CLOUDS
TO EXIT EASTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...BUT
IFR CIGS/VSBY MAY DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
OVERNIGHT AND FOR EARLY DAYLIGHT ON SUNDAY AS THE WINDS SLACK.
IMPROVEMENTS BY LUNCH AS WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
TEXAS.
/24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 48 65 45 71 52 / 30 0 0 10 20
MLU 49 63 44 69 48 / 60 10 0 10 20
DEQ 44 66 43 69 47 / 20 0 0 10 30
TXK 48 65 44 69 50 / 20 0 0 10 30
ELD 47 63 42 69 50 / 40 0 0 10 20
TYR 46 67 47 72 52 / 10 0 0 10 20
GGG 46 67 45 73 50 / 10 0 0 10 20
LFK 48 68 45 74 52 / 30 0 0 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/24
000
FXUS64 KLCH 212047
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
247 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS NOW INDICATING SURFACE LOW JUST
OFFSHORE NEAR MARSH ISLAND. RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FEATURE.
SURFACE LOW...MID LEVEL LOW AND UPPER TROF TO ADVANCE EAST NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING RAINS COMING TO AN END. REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND LOOKING PLEASANT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW...TRENDING TOWARD ZONAL ALOFT. EXPECTING SEASONABLY
WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEXT RAIN CHANCE ARRIVES TUESDAY WITH OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
DEPICTED SIMILARLY BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. COOLER 1025 MB HIGH
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL BRING LOWER TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SEAS LOWER AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THEN ADVANCES
EAST NORTHEAST. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...BECOMING SOUTHERLY MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 49 67 46 72 53 / 20 0 0 0 10
KBPT 49 68 47 74 56 / 10 0 0 0 20
KAEX 48 65 43 70 47 / 50 10 0 0 10
KLFT 50 64 48 70 51 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 211755
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GPT IS THE
ONLY SITE NOT SEEING RAIN...BUT SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH LONGER. IFR
CIGS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SPORADIC BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON LATER
TONIGHT. SO...EXPECT OFF AND ON LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SHOWER THROUGH 00Z AND TAPERING OFF AFTER THAT. IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VIS WILL RESUME THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME SATURATED FROM 815 MB TO 580
MB...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS 1.10 INCHES. AN ALTOSTRATUS CLOUD
DECK WAS PRESENT AT LAUNCH DUE TO QUITE A BIT OF STRATIFORM RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER SHOWERS.
AN INVERSION IS PRESENT NEAR 3000 FEET WHILE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
EAST AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST ALOFT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
SHORT TERM...AT 9Z THE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CNTRL
TX COAST AND STILL WELL SW OF THE CWA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF SHRA ARE
MAKING THERE WAY NORTH ONTO THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL LA COAST. THERE IS
AN AREA OF TSRA WELL SOUTH OF THE LA COAST AND THESE WERE MAINLY
MOVING TO THE EAST. THE MID LVL DISTURBANCE WAS STILL BACK IN ERN TX
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. EVEN THOUGH THE MDLS ARE WITHIN THE NOISE LVL
THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. LOOKING AT CURRENT
FEATURES...MSAS SHOWS BEST PRESSURE FALLS EAST TO ENE OF THE SFC LOW
ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WELL INTO THE GULF MOVING EAST.
THE GFES AND SREF ARE ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND WITH ALL OF
THIS I PREFER THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THAT SAID ANY DEVIATION
NORTH(EVEN BY JUST 50 MILES) WOULD MAKE A PRETTY GOOD DIFFERENCE IN
STRONG/SVR RISK. WITH THE TRACK EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST TODAY THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
MAKING TODAY MORE OF A ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA SHRA DAY AND THIS SHOWS
UP REALLY WELL IN THE 290-300K LVLS FOR OUR CWA. WITH THAT SAID I
EXPECT THE LARGE AREA OF SHRA JUST OFF TO OUR SW TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND TO THE NE THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE WILL EVEN BE ISLTD TO
SCT TSRA EMBEDDED IN THIS ACTIVITY THANKS TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY(SHOWALTERS NEAR -3). AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS AREA WIDE
1-2" LOOK PRETTY GOOD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY TO LUCEDALE THIS AFTN. THIS
LOCATION LINES UP WELL WITH THE LFQ OF A 100KT SUBTROPICAL JET.
OUR SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ENE ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST AND
SHOULD BE ALONG THE AL COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
VERY GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVN WITH
RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE SW WE COULD SEE RAIN
COME TO AN END QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVN AS WE SHOULD BEGIN
TO GET DRY SLOTTED. BY TOMORROW MORNING LIGHT RAIN MAY STILL BE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE EXTREME ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND POSSIBLY IN
OUR OUTER WATERS. SUNDAY MAY BE A DREARY COOL DAY AS THE MID LVL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TWRDS THE
TN VALLEY. THE LL THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA SO WE
EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD BIT OF LOW CLOUDS STILL. /CAB/
LONG TERM...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED. THERE AREA SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES B/T THE MEDIUM RANGE MDLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT OVERALL THE MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND
YOUR TURKEY DAY IS LOOKING RATHER QUIET ALONG THE N-CNTRL GULF COAST
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. WITH MAINLY JUST TIMING ISSUES I WILL USE A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BEGIN QUIET BUT ANOTHER MOSTLY
DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SOMETIME TUE/TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING. BY MON NIGHT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WITH A SFC LOW DEEPENING JUST WEST OF THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST TUE IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AGAIN THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA BUT IT
IS LOOKING LIKE SOMETIME TUE AFTN/EVN. NOW MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THANKS TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE SERN CONUS/NRN GULF. WITH THAT LOOK FOR ISLTD TO
WIDELY SCT SHRA MAINLY WITH THE FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS LOOK FOR
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO MID
50S(NORTH TO SOUTH) AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S MON AND TUE
AND THEN IN THE 60S BEHIND OUR FRONT ON WED.
YOUR TURKEY DAY LOOKS RATHER QUIET AND COOL. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER
CONTINENTAL AIR WILL BE ON THE WAY DOWN AND THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LOWS THANKSGIVING MORNING WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S THANKS TO THE SFC HIGH STILL OFF TO OUR NW BUT
IF THE COOLER AIR IS A LITTLE FASTER THEN UPPER 30S WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NRN 3RD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SFC INTO THE WEEKEND AND THIS
SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL AND DRY SIDE. /CAB/
AVIATION...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE...BEFORE LOWER CONDITIONS MOVE IN. CURRENT FORECAST MAY
ACTUALLY BE A TAD ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE AS LOWER CEILINGS HAVE NOT
MOVED ON SHORE YET. ONCE CONDITIONS DO FALL BELOW VFR...THEY WILL
REMAIN AT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED...AND DO NOT PLAN ON
MENTIONING THUNDER IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. 35
MARINE...
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS WINDS TODAY. MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN
IN EXERCISE CAUTION WIND RANGES...BUT A FEW SITES OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS HAVE REACHED 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. SPLL1...SOUTH OF TERREBONNE
PARISH REPORTING 30 KNOTS...BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH
ANEMOMETER AT 40 METERS...SO SURFACE WINDS LIKELY SOMEWHAT LESS.
GRADIENT FORECAST TO RELAX DURING THE DAY...AND THIS IS SHOWN IN
MODEL WIND GRIDS. WILL CARRY SCA IN WESTERN WATERS...AND EXERCISE
CAUTION EAST AND TIDAL LAKES THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT THAT THE EXERCISE
CAUTION WILL NEED TO BE CARRIED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BY THE DAY
SHIFT.
ONCE CONDITIONS RELAX OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...NO FLAGS EXPECTED BEFORE
MIDWEEK. AT THAT POINT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY ALLOW EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS TO RETURN. 35
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 49 60 48 / 100 80 10 10
BTR 58 50 62 48 / 100 40 10 10
MSY 62 53 64 51 / 100 50 10 10
GPT 60 52 65 51 / 100 80 10 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 211731
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1131 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 21/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER EAST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS LATE MORNING
WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED IN THE NORTHWEST GULF ABOUT
100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END AT KBPT TAF SITE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND REMAINDER OF TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...LOW END MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES.
SOME DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM
WEST TO EAST.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
UPDATE...NEW DISCUSSION AVAILABLE.
DISCUSSION...ANALYSIS SUGGESTING SURFACE LOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON. FEATURE TO
CONTINUE A NORTHEAST TRACK WITH CURRENT SCATTERED RAINS TAPERING
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CLOUDS...RAINS AND A NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMUP
FROM OUR CURRENT TEMPS SO A RATHER DISMAL DAY CONTINUING. GRIDS/ZONES
LOOK ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGES.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NOAM...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET RUNNING FROM THE
PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF...AND
THE ACTIVE POLAR JET STREAMING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
CONUS. VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
TEXAS.
AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF SABINE PASS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LARGE
SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND INTO EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS STARTING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF GRAND CHENIER AND EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE GULF.
MID/UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE HEADING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MS TONIGHT. THE SFC
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF...CROSSING SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD AND
PRIMARILY ISENTROPIC LIFT DRIVEN RAINS WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE GULF WATERS...BUT LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED INLAND. THE
RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE INCH.
VERY LIGHT WRAP-AROUND RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVER EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA EARL SUNDAY BEFORE THE MID/UPPER SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...BUT AT THIS TIME OPTED TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. A
GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM ALONG WITH
THE DRY AIR IT WILL HAVE BROUGHT IN WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO BE QUITE STARVED OF MOISTURE AND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT FALL BACK TO AT OR BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN...AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS.
SHOULD THE ECMWF PAN OUT...YET ANOTHER VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WOULD
AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TODAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. WINDS AND RAINS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.
GALE WARNING MAY BE BECOMING A BIT MORE MARGINAL BASED ON LATEST
OBS...BUT AT THE TIME OF EXTENSION THERE WERE STILL SOME GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF GALE FORCE BEING REPORTED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE CANCELLATION BEFORE THE SCHEDULED 16Z EXPIRATION TIME.
AVIATION...
AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AS A SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NW GULF. WINDS HAVE NOT STRENGTHENED AS MUCH AS INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT STILL EXPECT NE WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW TREKS TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE AFTN AND DECREASING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAINFALL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KLFT AND KARA. IN ADDITION...MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY...LOWERING TO IFR BY LATE AFTN AND EVENING
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 59 48 64 46 71 / 70 10 10 10 10
KBPT 59 47 67 48 72 / 50 10 10 10 10
KAEX 56 48 63 43 70 / 70 20 10 10 10
KLFT 59 50 62 47 69 / 80 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
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