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000
FXUS64 KLCH 090236
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
836 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND MOISTURE FROM
AN SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF HURRICANE IDA OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SWATH
OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH
A 3 TO 4 INCH AREA POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE
ENDING BY EARLY TUESDAY. FOR THIS...A FLOOD WATCH IS ISSUED
THROUGH 06Z TUE.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND MON...MAINLY ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR TO THE COAST. FOR THIS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 06Z MON. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE ON TRACK.
DML
&&
.TIDAL FLOODING...
THE THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD END AFTER THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE
DIRECTION WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...KEEPING THE TIDES NEAR PREDICTED LEVELS. WITH THE STRONG
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MON INTO EARLY
TUE...TIDES MAY ACTUALLY DROP BELOW PREDICTED LEVELS.
THUS...DROPPED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...AND KEPT THE STATEMENT
GOING FOR THE ONGOING TIDES OF ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING.
DML
&&
.MARINE...
EAST WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE BAROCLINIC/EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE W GULF
(WEST OF HURRICANE IDA) CONTINUES TO INCREASE OUR PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE N GULF. LATEST GFS/NAM GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS NEAR
34 KNOTS ACROSS THE 20-60NM ZONES SOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
TO CAMERON...MAINLY FROM THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH...AND BOTH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND IDA TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. VERY COMPLICATED TO DISTINGUISH WHERE THE INCREASED
WINDS WILL BE RESULTING FROM: THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF IDA OR JUST THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN OUR BAROCLINIC LOW AND THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH...OR A COMBINATION. ANY RATE...FELT IT WAS
NECESSARY TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS AREA BEGINNING AT 12Z.
DML
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN FOCUS ON THE AREA RIVERS CONTINUES TO BE THE MODERATE TO
MAJOR FLOOD WAVE MOVING DOWN THE SABINE. BON WIER HAS CONTINUED TO
SHOW A GOOD FALL THROUGH THE DAY AND IS NOW BELOW THE MODERATE
FLOOD CATEGORY OF 33 FEET. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE AT BON WIER TOMORROW AFTERNOON OR TOMORROW NIGHT.
DOWNSTREAM AT DEWEYVILLE...THE RIVER HAS BEEN NEAR A LONG FLAT CREST
AROUND 27.9 FEET FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND COULD STILL BUMP UP TO 28
FEET BEFORE THE WATER BEGINS TO RECEDE IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
AGAIN IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT WHILE THE WATER IN THE MAIN CHANNEL
IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THAT MUCH...THE OFF CHANNEL
FEATURES...SUCH AS SLOUGHS...CREEKS AND OTHER LOW SPOTS COULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RISES AS THE WATER SPREADS AWAY FROM
THE MAIN CHANNEL. UNLESS THE RIVER DOES FLUCTUATE A LITTLE HIGHER
THIS CURRENT CREST IT IS PRELIMINARILY 8TH ALL TIME HIGHEST CREST
AND THE 5TH HIGHEST SINCE TOLEDO BEND WAS IMPOUNDED.
THESE HIGHER FLOWS AND THE ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WILL CAUSE ORANGE TO GET UP AROUND FLOOD STAGE
TOMORROW.
HIGHER FLOWS AND ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES WILL KEEP ONGOING MINOR
FLOODING GOING ON THE LOWER CALCASIEU FROM THE SALT WATER BARRIER TO
OLD TOWN BAY. ALSO SAME CONCERNS FOR THE NECHES AT
BEAUMONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL TO THE EAST OF THE
BASINS THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN FLOOD WITH THE CALCASIEU BASIN RIGHT ON
THE FENCE OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. WITH THE RAINFALL THAT IS
FORECAST...ONLY SEE IT CAUSING ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING ON THE
VERMILION RIVER AND WILL LET THE FLOOD WATCH COVER THIS UNTIL WE
SEE HOW THE RAINFALL DOES PLAY OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
JRB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE AREA BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER
IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE HURRICANE IDA IS
SPINNING NEAR THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST OVER THE AREA. THIS IS PROVIDING
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS ACRS SE TX AND SWRN AND CNTRL LA.
VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. RADAR INDICATING PATCHES
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE THIS AFTN.
DISCUSSION...
THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE OFFSHORE RAINS TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHWARD...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH OVER THE SERN STATES WILL
TIGHTEN...WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS HURRICANE IDA...WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO
CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WITH WINDS OF NEARLY 100
MPH. IDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT IDA
WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE SE LA COAST AND THE FLA/ALA BORDER. THIS
WOULD PUT THE GREATEST IMPACTS EAST OF OUR AREA. THE ULTIMATE
TRACK OF IDA IS DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE SE CONUS RIDGE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS TX TONIGHT
AND APPROACH LA MONDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
WINDS...RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. STARTING
WITH COASTAL FLOODING...AT THIS TIME THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT WILL REMAIN. LATEST OBS FROM NOS TIDE GAUGES
SHOW TIDES RUNNING ABOUT ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS...OR BETWEEN 2.5-3.0 FEET. WE ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
LOW TIDE CYCLE...WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE EXPECTED BETWEEN 9 AND 11
PM TONIGHT. EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO PEAK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH
TIDES AROUND 3 TO 3.5 FEET. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST CFW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SE CONUS HIGH AND THE WEST GULF
TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HAVE ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG I-10 SOUTHWARD FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY.
LASTLY...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN FROM ONE TO THREE
INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF A
LINE FROM BPT TO AEX. APPEARS AS THOUGH MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL OCCUR
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACRS AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A REPRIEVE
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS REASSESS
FLOOD POTENTIAL.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
MARINE...
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACRS THE WESTERN
GULF. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING AND WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING UP. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COASTAL LAKES AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HYDROLOGY...
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND
CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 66 71 59 76 / 40 70 70 40 10
KBPT 76 66 72 60 76 / 40 60 60 30 10
KAEX 76 61 69 58 73 / 20 60 60 50 10
KLFT 75 66 70 60 73 / 40 80 90 50 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...
IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...
ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS64 KLIX 082208
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
408 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE IDA MOVES INTO THE GULF...
.SHORT TERM...OF COURSE THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS PACKAGE IS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE HURRICANE IDA. THAT SAID OTHER FEATURES HAVE COME
INTO PLAY TO HELP SET UP A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR
CONDITIONS TO START TO DETERIORATE EARLY TOMORROW OVER EXTREME SERN
LA AND THEN EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND WEST TWRDS THE MS COAST TOMORROW
AFTN.
THE FCST OF IDA IS STILL QUITE COMPLICATED. CURRENT NHC FCST HAS IDA
JUST E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER BY 6Z TUESDAY. THE FEATURES THAT
ARE COMING INTO PLAY IS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER
THE SERN CONUS...IDA IN THE EXTREME S-CNTRL GULF...A WEAK SFC TROUGH
IN THE WRN GULF...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS...A MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN TX...AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE ERN GULF AND ACROSS FL. HOW ALL OF THESE INTERACT COULD
MEAN SIZABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE WINDS AND RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA BUT
FROM A COASTAL FLOODING STANDPOINT A SLIGHT SHIFT WONT MAKE MUCH OF
A DIFFERENCE.
SO TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IDA TO MOVE ON A NNW
TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS OR SO. AS THIS TROUGH BEGINS TO
INFLUENCE IDA...IDA SHOULD START TO SPEED UP...TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NE ALONG WITH STARTING TO TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION IDA SHOULD
ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL GULF DUE TO MUCH COOLER WATERS
AND INCREASE IN SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IDA COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THAT SAID WE SHOULD STILL SEE TROPICAL STORM TO MINIMUM
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST ESPECIALLY AROUND PLAQUEMINES
PARISH BY TOMORROW AFTN. CURRENTLY IDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
EAST OF THE AREA AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WITH
ALL OF THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH TO OUR ENE AND
IDA HAS AND WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA. AS IDA MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND SHOULD APPROACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN EXTREME SE
LA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVN HRS BUT MORE SO CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND ALONG THE MS COAST. AS FOR RAIN NORMALLY THE WEST SIDE IS
CONSIDERED THE DRY SIDE BUT DUE TO THE WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE WRN
GULF AND APPROACH OF THE MID LVL TROUGH THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE
RAIN ON THE WEST SIDE. ALSO AS IDA TRANSITIONS WE COULD END UP IN
THE DEFORMATION AXIS LEADING TO A SW-NE BAND OF HEAVIER SHRA
TOMORROW AFTN/NIGHT. OVERALL AREA WIDE 2-5" OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM
MCCOMB TO HOUMA. AS IDA MOVES TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA DRIER AIR
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE NW AND RAIN SHOULD START TO
COME TO AN END LATE TUE MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY TUE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IDA PLEASE REFER TO THE HLS PRODUCT. /CAB/
.LONG TERM...OVERALL NOT TO MANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FCST
FOR WED THROUGH SUN. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH IN AND A MID LVL
RIDGE WILL BUILD AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PUSH
EAST AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHRA BACK TO THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KMSY AND KGPT AS THE
OUTER EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IDA BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. AT KBTR
AND KMCB...WIND EFFECTS WILL BE LESS...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR AND THEN THE IFR RANGE DUE TO RAIN BANDS
MOVING THROUGH. AT KMSY AND KGPT...THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 20
TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.
&&
.MARINE...SAFE TO SAY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN. HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT AND WINDS ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY UP. AS
HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NNW AND THEN N WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
TOMORROW MORNING BUT MORE SO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AND COULD APPROACH 25FT IN THE OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 15
NEAR THE INNER WATERS. THE OTHER BIG ISSUE IS COASTAL FLOODING. DUE
TO THE LOCATION OF THE STRONG SFC AND IDA THE WIND GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. A LARGE FETCH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM THE FL
STRAITS AND TWRDS THE COAST. VERY STRONG ERLY FLOW WILL PILE THE
WATER UP ALONG EAST FACING SHORES AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE TIDES OF
5-7FT ABV NORMAL. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE HURRICANE WATCHES AND
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING PLEASE REFER TO THE HLS AND CFW PRODUCTS. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 58 67 57 73 / 40 80 80 20
BTR 61 68 57 74 / 60 90 60 10
MSY 64 71 60 74 / 50 90 70 20
GPT 63 70 58 72 / 30 90 100 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...AND WASHINGTON.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST.
CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...AND
WALTHALL.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AND PEARL RIVER.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
CAB
000
FXUS64 KLCH 082157
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
357 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST UPPER AIR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE AREA BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER
IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE HURRICANE IDA IS
SPINNING NEAR THE TIP OF THE YUCATAN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST OVER THE AREA. THIS IS PROVIDING
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS ACRS SE TX AND SWRN AND CNTRL LA.
VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREADING NORTH ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN. RADAR INDICATING PATCHES
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ONSHORE THIS AFTN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE OFFSHORE RAINS TO SPREAD INLAND THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW MOVES NORTHWARD...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH OVER THE SERN STATES WILL
TIGHTEN...WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
OTHER ITEM OF CONCERN IS HURRICANE IDA...WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO
CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE WITH WINDS OF NEARLY 100
MPH. IDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT IDA
WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE SE LA COAST AND THE FLA/ALA BORDER. THIS
WOULD PUT THE GREATEST IMPACTS EAST OF OUR AREA. THE ULTIMATE
TRACK OF IDA IS DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH OF THE SE CONUS RIDGE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS TX TONIGHT
AND APPROACH LA MONDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE
WINDS...RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING. STARTING
WITH COASTAL FLOODING...AT THIS TIME THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT WILL REMAIN. LATEST OBS FROM NOS TIDE GAUGES
SHOW TIDES RUNNING ABOUT ONE HALF TO ONE FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS...OR BETWEEN 2.5-3.0 FEET. WE ARE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
LOW TIDE CYCLE...WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE EXPECTED BETWEEN 9 AND 11
PM TONIGHT. EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO PEAK SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH
TIDES AROUND 3 TO 3.5 FEET. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST CFW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SE CONUS HIGH AND THE WEST GULF
TROUGH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HAVE ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG I-10 SOUTHWARD FROM 12Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY.
LASTLY...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN FROM ONE TO THREE
INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND SE OF A
LINE FROM BPT TO AEX. APPEARS AS THOUGH MOST OF THIS RAIN WILL OCCUR
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ACRS AREAS THAT HAVE HAD A REPRIEVE
FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS THE PAST FEW WEEKS. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS REASSESS
FLOOD POTENTIAL.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ACRS THE WESTERN
GULF. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING AND WINDS AND
SEAS STAYING UP. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COASTAL LAKES AND NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND
CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 66 71 59 76 / 70 70 40 10
KBPT 66 72 60 76 / 60 60 30 10
KAEX 61 69 58 73 / 60 60 50 10
KLFT 66 70 60 73 / 80 90 50 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT
FOR ACADIA-CALCASIEU-CAMERON-IBERIA-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST. MARTIN-ST. MARY-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CAMERON-
VERMILION.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT
FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR JEFFERSON-
ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
[top]
000
FXUS64 KSHV 082040
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
240 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY TRYING TO MOISTEN UP IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND THIS
MOISTENING OF THE AIR COLUMN SHOULD ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT AS
HURRICANE IDA MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. 18Z SHV SPECIAL SOUNDING SHOWS NOT MUCH
CHANGE SINCE THIS MORNING AS FAR AS A LARGE DRY WEDGE IN THE 4KFT-
20KFT LAYER. HOWEVER...LOOKING DOWN SOUTH AT THE 18Z LCH
SOUNDING...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. AREA COASTAL
RADARS SHOWING THIS TREND WITH SOME STREAMER SHOWERS TRYING TO
WORK THEIR WAY NORTHWARD FROM THE SE TX COAST. FOR THAT
REASON...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A WEAKENING OR PERHAPS...TRANSITIONING IDA TO AN EXTRA TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT MODERATE TO HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL TO OUR
NEIGHBORING WFO OFFICES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OUR SE ZONES WILL
BE ON THE NW QUADRANT OF THIS MOISTURE AND THUS...HAVE QUITE A
POP GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE DUE TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM...THUS DO NOT FEEL LIKE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ANY
PROBLEMS TO SATURATED LAKES AND RIVERS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY EXITS OUR EASTERN ZONES EARLY TUESDAY WITH
A QUIET FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL USHER IN
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING TOO COLD RIGHT NOW. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND
IT WILL TRY TO DRAW UP SOME GULF MOISTURE BUT WILL ONLY MENTION
SOME CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST CYCLE.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
A LOW VFR CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE AC/CIRRUS CANOPY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL AC CANOPY CONTINUES TO STREAM N
FROM SE TX/SRN LA ATTM...AND WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES...WITH LOW MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA S OF I-20.
REDUCED VSBYS OF 3-5SM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH ANY BREAKS IN THE AC FIELD MAY YIELD LOWER VSBYS.
CAN/T RULE OUT WIDELY SCT -SHRA DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ACROSS DEEP E
TX/SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE
FURTHER BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY ACROSS N LA/ADJACENT
E TX ALONG/S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHRA. E
WINDS AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT WILL BACK NE AROUND 10KTS MONDAY AS
HURRICANE IDA QUICKLY TRAVERSES N ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF...IMPACTING
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION B/W GPT AND DTS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 58 71 57 75 54 / 20 40 20 10 0
MLU 57 66 57 74 51 / 40 60 60 20 0
DEQ 55 73 52 75 46 / 10 20 10 20 0
TXK 57 70 56 75 51 / 10 20 10 10 0
ELD 55 68 55 75 48 / 20 40 20 20 0
TYR 60 73 56 76 52 / 20 20 10 10 0
GGG 58 71 55 75 50 / 20 20 10 10 0
LFK 60 71 56 77 52 / 40 40 20 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/15
000
FXUS64 KLCH 081823
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1223 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS NOT AS BAD AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. MEANWHILE SKIES ARE OVERCAST BUT WITH
A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD SO NO PROBLEMS THERE FOR AVIATION. REGIONAL
88DS SHOW A LARGE MASS OF PRECIP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALTHOUGH
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS IS LIKELY JUST MID-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH ONLY THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ACTUALLY BEING
SOME LIGHT RAIN MAKING IT THROUGH THE DRIER LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER
DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE CEILINGS LOWER SOMEWHAT. MVFR CEILINGS AND
PREVAILING RAIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST THEN SOUTH
TO NORTH IN REACTION TO CROSSING SHORTWAVE AND WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW MOVING IN OFF THE GULF. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF HURRICANE IDA.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTH FROM THE GULF WITH RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HURRICANE IDA AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. NHC HAS ALREADY ISSUED HURRICANE WATCHES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE LA COAST WITH IDA CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH ACRS THE GULF MONDAY...APPROACHING SERN LA BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE GULF COAST STATES FM THE WEST.
STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NORTH. IN
ADDITION...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. SPEEDS OF NEARLY 20 KNOTS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED
AT MARSH ISLAND AND BUOY 42035...WITH THE BUOY ALSO REPORTING SEAS
OF 5 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY FETCH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS UP
ALONG THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH MODELS
INDICATING A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES NORTH.
OVERALL...CURRENT FCST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET AND SEE NO
NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES NORTHWARD. RADAR IS INDICATING
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE
AND THIS IS BLOCKING THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS. BUT
THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD AND THE SHOWERS IN THE
GULF WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS TODAY WILL HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK AS SHOWERS
IN THE GULF MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL PICKUP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PILE UP THE WATER ALONG THE COAST AND WITH HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING THERE IS A THREAT OF SOME MINOR FLOODING.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
EVOLVING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...THE TROF MOVES OFF
THE COAST AND IDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULT IS
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH POPS TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST. IN
ADDITION WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE
SOUTH OF VERMILION BAY.
BY TUESDAY IDA LOOKS TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AS A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST DIVES DOWN INTO THE REGION AND INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL END THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS...BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 62 71 61 73 / 40 80 80 40 10
KBPT 76 64 73 61 75 / 40 70 50 20 10
KAEX 76 59 71 58 73 / 20 60 50 60 10
KLFT 75 62 70 59 72 / 40 80 80 60 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
25
000
FXUS64 KLIX 081757 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1157 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KMSY AND KGPT AS THE OUTER EFFECTS
OF HURRICANE IDA BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. AT KBTR AND
KMCB...WIND EFFECTS WILL BE LESS...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILTIES
WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR AND THEN THE IFR RANGE DUE TO RAIN BANDS
MOVING THROUGH. AT KMSY AND KGPT...THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES
WILL DROP...BUT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 20
TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...JUST A QUICK UPDATE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE LA COAST AND ALL OF THE MS COAST. INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FIRST TIER PARISHES
AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY AND ALONG THE PARISHES ALONG LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE COAST...THIS DOES INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES. FOR MORE
INFORMATION WITH EACH OF THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS PLEASE REFER
TO THE HLS(HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT). ALSO REFER TO THE NPW AND
CFW PRODUCTS. /CAB/
MARINE...SAFE TO SAY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN. HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT AND WINDS ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY UP. AS
HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NNW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATER
TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
MORNING BUT MORE SO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AND COULD APPROACH 30FT IN THE OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 20
NEAR THE INNER WATERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO THE HLS AND
MWW.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 418 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HURRICANE IDA...SO HAVE
UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT AS A GALE FORCE
WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...AS IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND AS A
RESULT GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND A STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAND AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT. ALL DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG IDA BECOMES TODAY BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
GULF WATERS.TUESDAY WILL BE WINDY AND TURNING COOLER. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA
CAUSING THE WINDS TO WEAKEN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 59 68 60 / 10 30 90 60
BTR 77 60 70 61 / 10 60 90 60
MSY 77 64 71 64 / 10 60 90 70
GPT 75 62 70 62 / 10 30 90 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...AND WASHINGTON.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST.
CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...AND
WALTHALL.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AND PEARL RIVER.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 081636
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1036 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...JUST A QUICK UPDATE. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE LA COAST AND ALL OF THE MS COAST. INLAND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR FIRST TIER PARISHES
AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY AND ALONG THE PARISHES ALONG LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE COAST...THIS DOES INCLUDE THE TIDAL LAKES. FOR MORE
INFORMATION WITH EACH OF THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS PLEASE REFER
TO THE HLS(HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT). ALSO REFER TO THE NPW AND
CFW PRODUCTS. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...SAFE TO SAY CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY DOWN. HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT AND WINDS ARE ALREADY ON THE WAY UP. AS
HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE NNW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATER
TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
MORNING BUT MORE SO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AND COULD APPROACH 30FT IN THE OUTER WATERS AND UP TO 20
NEAR THE INNER WATERS. FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO THE HLS AND
MWW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 418 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HURRICANE IDA...SO HAVE
UPGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT AS A GALE FORCE
WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...AS IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND AS A
RESULT GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND A STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAND AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT. ALL DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG IDA BECOMES TODAY BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO WEAKEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
GULF WATERS.TUESDAY WILL BE WINDY AND TURNING COOLER. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA
CAUSING THE WINDS TO WEAKEN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 59 68 60 / 10 30 90 60
BTR 77 60 70 61 / 10 60 90 60
MSY 77 64 71 64 / 10 60 90 70
GPT 75 62 70 62 / 10 30 90 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LIVINGSTON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...AND UPPER JEFFERSON.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...AND WASHINGTON.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST.
CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.
HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
JEFFERSON...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...AND
WALTHALL.
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AND PEARL RIVER.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
HURRICANE WIND WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
HURRICANE WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
CAB
000
FXUS64 KLCH 081629
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACRS SE TX AND SRN LA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTH FROM THE GULF WITH RADAR SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN BEGINNING TO ENTER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HURRICANE IDA AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. NHC HAS ALREADY ISSUED HURRICANE WATCHES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE LA COAST WITH IDA CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH ACRS THE GULF MONDAY...APPROACHING SERN LA BEFORE
FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE GULF COAST STATES FM THE WEST.
STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF MOVES NORTH. IN
ADDITION...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN. SPEEDS OF NEARLY 20 KNOTS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED
AT MARSH ISLAND AND BUOY 42035...WITH THE BUOY ALSO REPORTING SEAS
OF 5 FEET. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH THE STRONG EASTERLY FETCH TO KEEP WATER LEVELS UP
ALONG THE COAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME AS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING STILL LOOKS MARGINAL AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE WIND DIRECTION TODAY WITH MODELS
INDICATING A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING AS THE TROUGH
MOVES NORTH.
OVERALL...CURRENT FCST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET AND SEE NO
NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES NORTHWARD. RADAR IS INDICATING
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE
AND THIS IS BLOCKING THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS. BUT
THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD AND THE SHOWERS IN THE
GULF WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS TODAY WILL HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK AS SHOWERS
IN THE GULF MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL PICKUP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PILE UP THE WATER ALONG THE COAST AND WITH HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING THERE IS A THREAT OF SOME MINOR FLOODING.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
EVOLVING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...THE TROF MOVES OFF
THE COAST AND IDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULT IS
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH POPS TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST. IN
ADDITION WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE
SOUTH OF VERMILION BAY.
BY TUESDAY IDA LOOKS TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AS A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST DIVES DOWN INTO THE REGION AND INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL END THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS...BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 62 71 61 / 40 80 80 40
KBPT 76 64 73 61 / 40 70 50 20
KAEX 76 59 71 58 / 20 60 50 60
KLFT 75 62 70 59 / 40 80 80 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAMERON-VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CALCASIEU LAKE-SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY, LA OUT 20 NM-VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 081602
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1002 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. DEWPOINTS RESPONDING A LITTLE STRONGER TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS AC DECK HAS MOVED WELL
NORTH ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FEEL
LIKE WE CAN FORE GO POP MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AS 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 3KFT UNTIL YOU HIT THE AC
DECK. HIGH CLOUDS MAY HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST
MAX TEMPS TODAY UNTOUCHED.
UPDATED FORECAST COMING SHORTLY...13.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 18Z TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SPREADS E FROM THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF AN OPEN
TROUGH DRIFTING E OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT BKN
CIGS BETWEEN 3-3.5KFT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM
THE RED RIVER REGION OF EXTREME NE TX INTO ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AS LIMITED HEATING COMMENCES.
ADDITIONAL LOW VFR CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS E TX AS WELL...BUT NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD ABOVE 14KFT WILL
PERSIST TODAY/TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E MONDAY
MORNING. CAN/T RULE OUT 3-5SM VSBYS ONCE AGAIN AROUND/PRECEDING
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/WIDELY SCT -SHRA POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT NWD
AHEAD OF HURRICANE IDA...PROGGED TO TRACK NNE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 55 70 55 74 / 10 20 40 10 10
MLU 74 53 64 53 71 / 0 30 40 50 30
DEQ 75 51 72 49 72 / 0 10 20 10 10
TXK 74 54 70 52 73 / 0 10 20 10 10
ELD 75 53 67 53 73 / 0 10 30 20 20
TYR 74 55 73 54 74 / 10 30 30 10 10
GGG 75 55 72 53 74 / 10 20 30 10 10
LFK 75 56 72 54 76 / 10 30 30 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13/15
000
FXUS64 KLIX 081438
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
838 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THE MID LEVELS
REMAIN VERY DRY WITH THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST FEW
HUNDRED FEET AND ABOVE 25K FEET AGAIN. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE AND INTO THE MID LEVELS AND
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT.
NOTE...A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING WILL BE RELEASED TODAY TO ASSIST THE
MODELS AS THEY RELATE TO HURRICANE IDA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
98/SO
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND HURRICANE IDA...SO HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT AS A GALE FORCE WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM...
AS IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND AS A RESULT GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG IDA BECOMES TODAY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER GULF WATERS.TUESDAY
WILL BE WINDY AND TURNING COOLER. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO
WEAKEN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 59 68 60 / 10 30 90 60
BTR 77 60 70 61 / 10 60 90 60
MSY 77 64 71 64 / 10 60 90 70
GPT 75 62 70 62 / 10 30 90 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 081201
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO
THE EAST AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES NORTHWARD. RADAR IS INDICATING
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE
AND THIS IS BLOCKING THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS. BUT
THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO HOLD AND THE SHOWERS IN THE
GULF WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS TODAY WILL HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK AS SHOWERS
IN THE GULF MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL PICKUP
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PILE UP THE WATER ALONG THE COAST AND WITH HIGH TIDES
THIS EVENING THERE IS A THREAT OF SOME MINOR FLOODING.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
EVOLVING AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...THE TROF MOVES OFF
THE COAST AND IDA MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULT IS
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WITH POPS TAPERING OFF TO THE WEST. IN
ADDITION WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE
SOUTH OF VERMILION BAY.
BY TUESDAY IDA LOOKS TO BE OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AS A
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST DIVES DOWN INTO THE REGION AND INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL END THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS...BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 62 71 61 73 / 40 80 80 40 10
KBPT 76 64 73 61 75 / 40 70 50 20 10
KAEX 76 59 71 58 73 / 20 60 50 60 10
KLFT 75 62 70 59 72 / 40 80 80 60 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
K. KUYPER
000
FXUS64 KLCH 081157
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
557 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING STEADY THIS MORNING WITH
CIRRUS AND ALTOCU CIGS MOVING IN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. FOG WILL BE LESS PREVALENT THAN PAST FEW MORNINGS WITH
ONLY MVFR VIS. EAST WINDS BECOME GUSTY BY MID-MORNING WITH MVFR
CIGS MOVING IN FOR THE LATE MORNING...BECOMING VFR CIGS BY NOON.
STEADY STATE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO ACADIANA TERMINALS LFT AND ARA FROM THE EAST.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LONE IFR
AREA UP AROUND AEX WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 2K FEET AND
VISIBILITIES NEAR 2 MILE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AS
SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP. ADDED PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO TAF`S IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM TEXAS
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE MOVING SWIFTLY OUT OF WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE TO INLAND FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE WINDS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10...TO COINCIDE WITH
INCREASES ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AND NEAR SHORE
WATERS (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.
DML
COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH RIDGING
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF STATES. THIS SETUP CONTINUES A LARGE
EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF...CONTINUING MINOR WATER PILEUP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 1-1.5
FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS EVENING. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF ON
SUNDAY...TIDES COULD FURTHER INCREASE. THIS COULD RESULT IN TIDE
LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT ONE AND ONE HALF FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WITH ACTUAL TIDE LEVELS REACHING BETWEEN 3.5
AND 4 FEET DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SUNDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR VERMILION & CAMERON PARISHES IN
SW LA...AND JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SE TX. CONTINUED
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES FOR TIDES
REACHING 2.5 TO POSSIBLY 3.5 FEET SAT. DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH WATER
PILEUP DUE TO THE WNW TO ESE ORIENTATION THE COASTLINE THERE IN
RELATION TO THE WIND DIRECTION.
DML
MARINE...
UPDATES TO THE WINDS AND SEAS THRU WED DUE TO THE LATEST UPDATED
GUIDANCE...AND TRACK OF IDA...WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SE
OF THE AREA AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. IDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONGER FURTHER NORTH...EVENING DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER N FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF IDA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE NORTH.
THUS...SCA NOW REQUIRED FOR THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AS WELL AS
EXTENDING THE SCA THRU LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TRANSITIONING LATER TONIGHT TO TEMPO
MVFR FOR LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AEX MAY SEE
TEMPO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1 MILE OR SO IN THE MORNING.
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTNS UP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION
AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE LA AND SRN MS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE TS
IDA IS NOW BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH IDA BY MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACRS TX SUNDAY...APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIFT THE IDA/WEST GULF LOW SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A BPT-AEX LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IDA.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GULF LOW WILL ALLOW FOR WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
HYDROLOGY...
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND
CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 62 71 61 73 / 40 80 80 40 10
KBPT 76 64 73 61 75 / 40 70 50 20 10
KAEX 76 59 71 58 73 / 20 60 50 60 10
KLFT 75 62 70 59 72 / 40 80 80 60 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...
SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 081018
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
418 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TONIGHT DUE TO INTERACTION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND HURRICANE IDA...SO HAVE UPGRADED TO A COASTAL
FLOOD WARNING FOR TONIGHT AS A GALE FORCE WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN
THE COASTAL WATERS.
.LONG TERM...
AS IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND AS A RESULT GALE
WARNING WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND A STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
POSTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL LAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
ALL DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG IDA BECOMES TODAY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER GULF WATERS.TUESDAY
WILL BE WINDY AND TURNING COOLER. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
SHOULD SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO
WEAKEN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 59 68 60 / 10 30 90 60
BTR 77 60 70 61 / 10 60 90 60
MSY 77 64 71 64 / 10 60 90 70
GPT 75 62 70 62 / 10 30 90 70
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
BERNARD...AND UPPER TERREBONNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 080936
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
336 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
FOG DEVELOPING AT MANY AREA LOCATIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH
MONROE DROPPING DOWN TO 1 MILE BEFORE IMPROVING A BIT BACK UP TO
4. BATTLE BETWEEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INHIBITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR COOLING TO OCCUR AND
FOG TO FORM. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID
MORNING BUT DONT SEE IT BECOMING ENOUGH OF A WIDE SPREAD PROBLEM
FOR ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE EXTENT
HOWEVER DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND AS EVIDENT ON RUC ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR.
BASED ON SOUNDING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LCH AND SHV AT
00Z...MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD START INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW AND OUT IN
FRONT OF NOW HURRICANE IDA LOCATED NEAR COZUMEL. GFS AND NAM BOTH
BRINGING DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION BACK UP CLOSE TO 60 BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SO...WITH MOISTURE ON THE STEADY INCREASE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCING...CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND MOST OF
THE DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE
RAIN SHIELD GETS AND WHEN WILL THE RAIN BEGIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OPENS UP AND PULLS IDA AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA NORTH
AND WEST. TOOK MORE OF A BLENDED APPROACH BETWEEN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...NAM...AND GFS ON POPS. NAM WAS MUCH MORE AGRESSIVE WITH
POPS OVER THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS WHILE
THE GFS WAS MUCH LESS. BASED ON HPC QPF FORECASTS...AND GRADIENT
OF POPS FROM EAST TO WEST...FEEL THE GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVIER RAINS
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A MONROE LOUISIANA TO MANY LOUISIANA LINE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO ON MONDAY. WITH ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND INSTABILITY..WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS BUT
DONT SEE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
NHC FORECAST PUTS IDA OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
TUESDAY AM...WHICH MEANS NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STORM AND A DRIER FLOW. WE SHOULD SEE THINGS CLEAR OUT FAIRLY
QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST DRIER AIR GETS PULLED INTO
IDA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN BEHIND IDA AS THE UPPER
LOW PHASES INTO A FULL TROF OVER THE EAST COAST. LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST MORNING WILL BE THURSDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER 40S. STILL DONT SEE ANY FREEZE IN SIGHT OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS...IN FACT...SEE A TROF AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BY NEXT
WEEKEND SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING
NORTH OVER THE FOUR STATE THIS MORNING. 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED AN
INVERSION JUST BELOW 3KFT AND NOW CLOUDS ARE BKN HERE KSHV AT 034.
MVFR FOR VSBY NOW MAY BECOME IFR IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT THE CLOUDS AND
THE INCREASING DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT A REPEAT OF
IFR CONDITIONS THAT PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA YESTERDAY
MORNING. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING AS THE
LIGHT FOG THINS...BUT THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE. THE FAR WESTERN GULF IS
CLEAR...BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS POOLING FROM THE COASTAL BEND OUT
ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH OF LA. THIS ALL PART OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW...LIFTING N OUT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IDA/S MOISTURE IS
STILL SOMEWHAT FARTHER TO THE EAST. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 74 55 70 55 74 / 10 20 40 10 10
MLU 74 53 64 53 71 / 0 30 40 50 30
DEQ 75 51 72 49 72 / 0 10 20 10 10
TXK 74 54 70 52 73 / 0 10 20 10 10
ELD 75 53 67 53 73 / 0 10 30 20 20
TYR 74 55 73 54 74 / 10 30 30 10 10
GGG 75 55 72 53 74 / 10 20 30 10 10
LFK 75 56 72 54 76 / 10 30 30 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/24
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080543 CCA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE ADVERSE WEATHER THAT WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KMCB AND KBTR.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY AT
KMSY AND KBTR...AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
TEXAS AND MOISTURE INCREASES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH PW VALUES UP TO 0.75
INCHES NOW ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE FIRST
4000 FEET OF THE SOUNDING AS WELL AS IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
500MB AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALOFT.
NOTE...IN PREPARATION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MAKING HER WAY INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE COASTAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS WILL BEGIN
SPECIAL SOUNDINGS STARTING WITH AN 18Z RELEASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...TOMORROW WE WILL HAVE 6 HOURLY FLIGHTS BEGINNING WITH
THE 12Z FLIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL IT IS NO LONGER NEEDED.
98/SO
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS. SEVERAL DIFFERENT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTERACT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. ALL OF THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ONLY A FEW TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES OF
THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS VARYING. THE EASIEST WAY TO DISCUSS THE
SITUATION IS BY GOING THROUGH IT STEP BY STEP.
INITIALLY...THE PATTERN WILL DOMINATED BY THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
BROAD AND VERY STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...AND A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOMORROW. THIS NORTHWARD
MOTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND INTO TEXAS. IN THE LOW AND
MID-LEVELS...STRONG GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS EASTERLY
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS HEADING INTO
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVEL NEEDED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A
BIT...AS TROPICAL STORM...AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE IDA...MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND TURN INTO A SUB-TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO COOLER GULF WATER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...THE OTHER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH IDA...RESULTING IN A VERY LARGE
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS
THAT THE RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THUS...STRONG EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. THESE STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...COMBINED WITH A LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AND
THE NEED OF COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME...TIDE MODELS ARE SHOWING TIDE LEVELS
RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT COASTAL
FLOODING AND WIND ISSUES WILL PERSIST OVER THAT TIME.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWEEPING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDWEST...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
.CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PULL THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...RIDGING TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. THIS
MOISTURE RETURN...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SWELL TRAIN EMANATING FROM THE LOW AND TROPICAL
STORM IDA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING
TO NEAR 12 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET
WORSE HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS TROPICAL STORM IDA
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EXTRA-
TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS OF 15 TO 20
FEET THROUGH MONDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE REMAINS
OF IDA MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. 32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 75 59 68 / 0 10 30 80
BTR 58 77 60 70 / 0 10 60 80
MSY 63 77 64 71 / 0 10 60 80
GPT 57 75 62 70 / 0 10 30 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080526
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1130 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LONE IFR
AREA UP AROUND AEX WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 2K FEET AND
VISIBILITIES NEAR 2 MILE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AS
SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP. ADDED PROBABILITY OF RAIN TO TAF`S IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN AREAS AS SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM TEXAS
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE MOVING SWIFTLY OUT OF WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
&&
.UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE TO INLAND FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE WINDS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10...TO COINCIDE WITH
INCREASES ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AND NEAR SHORE
WATERS (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.
DML
&&
.COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH RIDGING
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF STATES. THIS SETUP CONTINUES A LARGE
EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF...CONTINUING MINOR WATER PILEUP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 1-1.5
FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS EVENING. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF ON
SUNDAY...TIDES COULD FURTHER INCREASE. THIS COULD RESULT IN TIDE
LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT ONE AND ONE HALF FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WITH ACTUAL TIDE LEVELS REACHING BETWEEN 3.5
AND 4 FEET DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SUNDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR VERMILION & CAMERON PARISHES IN
SW LA...AND JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SE TX. CONTINUED
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES FOR TIDES
REACHING 2.5 TO POSSIBLY 3.5 FEET SAT. DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH WATER
PILEUP DUE TO THE WNW TO ESE ORIENTATION THE COASTLINE THERE IN
RELATION TO THE WIND DIRECTION.
DML
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATES TO THE WINDS AND SEAS THRU WED DUE TO THE LATEST UPDATED
GUIDANCE...AND TRACK OF IDA...WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SE
OF THE AREA AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. IDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONGER FURTHER NORTH...EVENING DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER N FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF IDA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE NORTH.
THUS...SCA NOW REQUIRED FOR THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AS WELL AS
EXTENDING THE SCA THRU LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TRANSITIONING LATER TONIGHT TO TEMPO
MVFR FOR LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AEX MAY SEE
TEMPO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1 MILE OR SO IN THE MORNING.
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTNS UP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION
AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE LA AND SRN MS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE TS
IDA IS NOW BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH IDA BY MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACRS TX SUNDAY...APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIFT THE IDA/WEST GULF LOW SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A BPT-AEX LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IDA.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GULF LOW WILL ALLOW FOR WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
HYDROLOGY...
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND
CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 58 76 62 72 60 / 10 40 70 60 40
KBPT 58 77 64 74 61 / 10 40 50 50 20
KAEX 52 77 59 72 58 / 10 20 50 50 60
KLFT 57 76 62 71 62 / 10 40 70 70 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
20 NM...VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080521
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1121 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE ADVERSE WEATHER THAT WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KMCB AND KBTR.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY AT
KMSY AND KBTR...AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
TEXAS AND MOISTURE INCREASES AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH PW VALUES UP TO 0.75
INCHES NOW ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE FIRST
4000 FEET OF THE SOUNDING AS WELL AS IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
500MB AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALOFT.
NOTE...IN PREPARATION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MAKING HER WAY INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE COASTAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS WILL BEGIN
SPECIAL SOUNDINGS STARTING WITH AN 18Z RELEASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...TOMORROW WE WILL HAVE 6 HOURLY FLIGHTS BEGINNING WITH
THE 12Z FLIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL IT IS NO LONGER NEEDED.
98/SO
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS. SEVERAL DIFFERENT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTERACT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. ALL OF THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ONLY A FEW TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES OF
THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS VARYING. THE EASIEST WAY TO DISCUSS THE
SITUATION IS BY GOING THROUGH IT STEP BY STEP.
INITIALLY...THE PATTERN WILL DOMINATED BY THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
BROAD AND VERY STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...AND A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOMORROW. THIS NORTHWARD
MOTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND INTO TEXAS. IN THE LOW AND
MID-LEVELS...STRONG GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS EASTERLY
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS HEADING INTO
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVEL NEEDED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A
BIT...AS TROPICAL STORM...AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE IDA...MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND TURN INTO A SUB-TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO COOLER GULF WATER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...THE OTHER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH IDA...RESULTING IN A VERY LARGE
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS
THAT THE RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THUS...STRONG EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. THESE STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...COMBINED WITH A LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AND
THE NEED OF COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME...TIDE MODELS ARE SHOWING TIDE LEVELS
RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT COASTAL
FLOODING AND WIND ISSUES WILL PERSIST OVER THAT TIME.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWEEPING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDWEST...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
.CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PULL THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...RIDGING TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. THIS
MOISTURE RETURN...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SWELL TRAIN EMANATING FROM THE LOW AND TROPICAL
STORM IDA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING
TO NEAR 12 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET
WORSE HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS TROPICAL STORM IDA
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EXTRA-
TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS OF 15 TO 20
FEET THROUGH MONDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE REMAINS
OF IDA MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. 32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 75 59 68 / 0 10 30 80
BTR 58 77 60 70 / 0 10 60 80
MSY 63 77 64 71 / 0 10 60 80
GPT 57 75 62 70 / 0 10 30 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080439
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1039 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
ONLY UPDATE TO INLAND FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE WINDS BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10...TO COINCIDE WITH
INCREASES ACROSS THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AND NEAR SHORE
WATERS (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE...OTHER PARAMETERS
ON TRACK.
DML
&&
.COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EAST COAST...WITH RIDGING
ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF STATES. THIS SETUP CONTINUES A LARGE
EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF...CONTINUING MINOR WATER PILEUP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT 1-1.5
FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS EVENING. WITH THE
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF ON
SUNDAY...TIDES COULD FURTHER INCREASE. THIS COULD RESULT IN TIDE
LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT ONE AND ONE HALF FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WITH ACTUAL TIDE LEVELS REACHING BETWEEN 3.5
AND 4 FEET DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SUNDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR VERMILION & CAMERON PARISHES IN
SW LA...AND JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SE TX. CONTINUED
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES FOR TIDES
REACHING 2.5 TO POSSIBLY 3.5 FEET SAT. DON`T EXPECT AS MUCH WATER
PILEUP DUE TO THE WNW TO ESE ORIENTATION THE COASTLINE THERE IN
RELATION TO THE WIND DIRECTION.
DML
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATES TO THE WINDS AND SEAS THRU WED DUE TO THE LATEST UPDATED
GUIDANCE...AND TRACK OF IDA...WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SE
OF THE AREA AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. IDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONGER FURTHER NORTH...EVENING DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER N FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE
OF IDA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE NORTH.
THUS...SCA NOW REQUIRED FOR THE INLAND LAKES AND BAYS...AS WELL AS
EXTENDING THE SCA THRU LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TRANSITIONING LATER TONIGHT TO TEMPO
MVFR FOR LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AEX MAY SEE
TEMPO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1 MILE OR SO IN THE MORNING.
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTNS UP.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION
AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE LA AND SRN MS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE TS
IDA IS NOW BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH IDA BY MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACRS TX SUNDAY...APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIFT THE IDA/WEST GULF LOW SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A BPT-AEX LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IDA.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GULF LOW WILL ALLOW FOR WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
HYDROLOGY...
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND
CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 58 76 62 72 60 / 10 40 70 60 40
KBPT 58 77 64 74 61 / 10 40 50 50 20
KAEX 52 77 59 72 58 / 10 20 50 50 60
KLFT 57 76 62 71 62 / 10 40 70 70 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO
HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT
20 NM...VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 080303
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CIRRUS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST 00Z
SOUNDING FROM KSHV INDICATES A VERY DRY PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE COLUMN...GENERATING DOUBTS ABOUT CIRRUS BREAKING NORTH OF
SHREVEPORT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...WENT AHEAD
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOUISIANA PARISHES
AND MUCH OF EAST TEXAS...WITH OTHER AREAS REMAINING UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
OTHERWISE...ELIMINATED FOG WORDING NORTH OF I-20 TONIGHT BASED ON
UPDATED GUIDANCE CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
CIRRUS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTH OVER THE FOUR STATE THIS EVENING.
THE CLOUD COVER MAY HELP PREVENT A REPEAT OF IFR CONDITIONS THAT
PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...HOLDING SURFACE TEMPS
JUST THE DEWPOINT. BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG...AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SHV WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH 09/00Z. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE STRATOCU FIELD HAS ERODED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING...AS THE GULF
COAST REGION WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF TS IDA...AS IT
BECOMES DIRECTED TOWARDS THE COAST AHEAD OF THE OLD MX LOW DRIFTING E
THIS AFTERNOON. FLAT RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS E INTO THE
SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW TO THE W EXPECTED TO OPEN UP
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY ENHANCING DEEP LYR MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF POPS UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MID/HIGH BASED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...AS WAS THE CASE THIS
MORNING...CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE STILL IN PLACE...WITH THE EXTENT
DICTATED BY THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE
NRN/GULF/SRN LA AND SE TX.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE REMNANTS OF IDA...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUBTROPICAL AS IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH MONDAY. MAY
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AFFECT
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE CENTER DRIFTS INTO SE LA/SRN MS MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE PROGS MAINTAIN THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
TRACKING NE ALONG THE LS/MS COAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 850-700MB
LOW FARTHER NW AWAY FROM THE SFC CENTER. THIS WOULD KEEP THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ESE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT...OVER SE LA/SRN MS/AL...AS THE REMNANTS OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE E AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN
THE EXACT UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK...HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA...TAPERED OFF FARTHER W AWAY FROM
THE CENTER. WILL NOT INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ATTM FOR THE ERN
ZONES...ALTHOUGH SHOULD THIS TRACK VERIFY...CAN/T RULE OUT QPF
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1" MAINLY E OF A MLU...TO AEX LINE. GIVEN THE LAST
8 DAYS OF DRYING...AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE E OF THE
AREA...NOT EXPECTING THIS RAINFALL TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER/LAKE
FLOODING ACROSS N LA.
STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD S INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A REINFORCEMENT
OF A COOLER/DRY AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA. A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
YIELD THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FRIDAY AS SW FLOW COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DIG SE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SE...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY B/W THE GFS AND
ECMWF TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ATTM...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER/MORE BULLISH WITH RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
AVIATION...
AS PLANNED...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUBLE IS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. FEEL LIKE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET UP ONCE
AGAIN...TRAPPING SHALLOW MOISTURE WHICH WILL COME NORTH AGAIN FROM
THE COAST. HAVE MOST TERMINALS FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ACROSS MOST AREAS BY
SUNRISE...CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z OR SO. CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME MVFR IN THE 16-17Z TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT SO
TO SPEAK WOULD BE CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY
TEND TO INHIBIT GOOD FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...WILL BE PESSIMISTIC
AND GO WITH THE LOWER VIS CATEGORIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. /13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 54 75 59 71 56 / 0 10 20 40 20
MLU 50 75 58 68 57 / 0 0 30 50 50
DEQ 48 75 54 73 52 / 0 0 10 20 10
TXK 54 74 57 72 54 / 0 0 20 30 20
ELD 49 75 56 70 55 / 0 0 20 40 30
TYR 59 75 58 74 56 / 0 10 20 20 10
GGG 54 75 57 73 56 / 0 10 20 20 10
LFK 56 76 60 74 57 / 0 10 30 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/14
000
FXUS64 KSHV 080301
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
901 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CIRRUS FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATEST 00Z
SOUNDING FROM KSHV INDICATES A VERY DRY PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE COLUMN...GENERATING DOUBTS ABOUT CIRRUS BREAKING NORTH OF
SHREVEPORT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...WENT AHEAD
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOUISIANA PARISHES
AND MUCH OF EAST TEXAS...WITH OTHER AREAS REMAINING UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
OTHERWISE...ELIMINATED FOG WORDING NORTH OF I-20 TONIGHT BASED ON
UPDATED GUIDANCE CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CIRRUS SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTH OVER THE FOUR STATE THIS EVENING.
THE CLOUD COVER MAY HELP PREVENT A REPEAT OF IFR CONDITIONS THAT
PREVAILED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...HOLDING SURFACE TEMPS
JUST THE DEWPOINT. BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z...A FEW LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG...AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...SOME MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING SHV WILL HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH 09/00Z. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE STRATOCU FIELD HAS ERODED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING...AS THE GULF
COAST REGION WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF TS IDA...AS IT
BECOMES DIRECTED TOWARDS THE COAST AHEAD OF THE OLD MX LOW DRIFTING E
THIS AFTERNOON. FLAT RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS E INTO THE
SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW TO THE W EXPECTED TO OPEN UP
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY ENHANCING DEEP LYR MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF POPS UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MID/HIGH BASED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...AS WAS THE CASE THIS
MORNING...CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE STILL IN PLACE...WITH THE EXTENT
DICTATED BY THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE
NRN/GULF/SRN LA AND SE TX.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE REMNANTS OF IDA...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUBTROPICAL AS IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH MONDAY. MAY
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AFFECT
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE CENTER DRIFTS INTO SE LA/SRN MS MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE PROGS MAINTAIN THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TRACKING
NE ALONG THE LS/MS COAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 850-700MB LOW FARTHER
NW AWAY FROM THE SFC CENTER. THIS WOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...OVER SE LA/SRN
MS/AL...AS THE REMNANTS OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE E AWAY FROM
THE REGION TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE EXACT UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TRACK...HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA...TAPERED OFF FARTHER W AWAY FROM THE CENTER. WILL NOT
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ATTM FOR THE ERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
THIS TRACK VERIFY...CAN/T RULE OUT QPF AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1" MAINLY E OF
A MLU...TO AEX LINE. GIVEN THE LAST 8 DAYS OF DRYING...AND THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE E OF THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING THIS RAINFALL
TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER/LAKE FLOODING ACROSS N LA.
STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD S INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A REINFORCEMENT
OF A COOLER/DRY AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA. A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
YIELD THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FRIDAY AS SW FLOW COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DIG SE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SE...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY B/W THE GFS AND
ECMWF TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER/MORE BULLISH WITH RAINFALL THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
AVIATION...
AS PLANNED...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUBLE IS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. FEEL LIKE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET UP ONCE
AGAIN...TRAPPING SHALLOW MOISTURE WHICH WILL COME NORTH AGAIN FROM
THE COAST. HAVE MOST TERMINALS FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ACROSS MOST AREAS BY
SUNRISE...CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z OR SO. CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME MVFR IN THE 16-17Z TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT SO
TO SPEAK WOULD BE CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY
TEND TO INHIBIT GOOD FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...WILL BE PESSIMISTIC
AND GO WITH THE LOWER VIS CATEGORIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. /13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 54 75 59 71 56 / 0 10 20 40 20
MLU 50 75 58 68 57 / 0 0 30 50 50
DEQ 48 75 54 73 52 / 0 0 10 20 10
TXK 54 74 57 72 54 / 0 0 20 30 20
ELD 49 75 56 70 55 / 0 0 20 40 30
TYR 59 75 58 74 56 / 0 10 20 20 10
GGG 54 75 57 73 56 / 0 10 20 20 10
LFK 56 76 60 74 57 / 0 10 30 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/99/99
000
FXUS64 KLIX 080140
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
740 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH PW VALUES UP TO 0.75
INCHES NOW ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE FIRST
4000 FEET OF THE SOUNDING AS WELL AS IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 25K
FEET. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
500MB AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALOFT.
NOTE...IN PREPARATION OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MAKING HER WAY INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE COASTAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS WILL BEGIN
SPECIAL SOUNDINGS STARTING WITH AN 18Z RELEASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...TOMORROW WE WILL HAVE 6 HOURLY FLIGHTS BEGINNING WITH
THE 12Z FLIGHT TOMORROW UNTIL IT IS NO LONGER NEEDED.
98/SO
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS. SEVERAL DIFFERENT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTERACT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. ALL OF THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ONLY A FEW TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES OF
THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS VARYING. THE EASIEST WAY TO DISCUSS THE
SITUATION IS BY GOING THROUGH IT STEP BY STEP.
INITIALLY...THE PATTERN WILL DOMINATED BY THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
BROAD AND VERY STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...AND A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOMORROW. THIS NORTHWARD
MOTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND INTO TEXAS. IN THE LOW AND
MID-LEVELS...STRONG GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS EASTERLY
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS HEADING INTO
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVEL NEEDED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A
BIT...AS TROPICAL STORM...AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE IDA...MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND TURN INTO A SUB-TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO COOLER GULF WATER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...THE OTHER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH IDA...RESULTING IN A VERY LARGE
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS
THAT THE RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THUS...STRONG EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. THESE STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...COMBINED WITH A LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AND
THE NEED OF COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME...TIDE MODELS ARE SHOWING TIDE LEVELS
RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT COASTAL
FLOODING AND WIND ISSUES WILL PERSIST OVER THAT TIME.
LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWEEPING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDWEST...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
..CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PULL THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...RIDGING TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. THIS
MOISTURE RETURN...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SWELL TRAIN EMANATING FROM THE LOW AND TROPICAL
STORM IDA IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN WILL ALSO LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING
TO NEAR 12 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET
WORSE HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS TROPICAL STORM IDA
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EXTRA-
TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS OF 15 TO 20
FEET THROUGH MONDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE REMAINS
OF IDA MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. 32
AVIATION...NO MAJOR ISSUES ON THE AVIATION FRONT AGAIN TONIGHT.
SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS FOR VISIBILITIES NOT
EXPECTING MUCH AS WINDS SHOULD START TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND TEMPS
WON`T BE QUITE AS COLD. ISSUES WILL START TO OCCUR TOMORROW EVENING
AS WINDS AND CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN SHOULD START TO RETURN LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 75 59 68 / 0 10 30 80
BTR 58 77 60 70 / 0 10 60 80
MSY 63 77 64 71 / 0 10 60 80
GPT 57 75 62 70 / 0 10 30 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 080007
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TRANSITIONING LATER TONIGHT TO TEMPO
MVFR FOR LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AEX MAY SEE
TEMPO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1 MILE OR SO IN THE MORNING.
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTNS UP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION
AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE LA AND SRN MS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE TS
IDA IS NOW BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH IDA BY MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACRS TX SUNDAY...APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIFT THE IDA/WEST GULF LOW SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A BPT-AEX LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IDA.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GULF LOW WILL ALLOW FOR WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND
CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 58 76 62 72 / 10 40 70 60
KBPT 58 77 64 74 / 10 40 50 50
KAEX 52 77 59 72 / 10 20 50 50
KLFT 57 76 62 71 / 10 40 70 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAMERON-VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
000
FXUS64 KLCH 072222
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
422 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION
AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE LA AND SRN MS. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE TS
IDA IS NOW BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MAKING ITS WAY
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES PROVIDING LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AGAIN THIS AFTN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH
SUNDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH IDA BY MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE CNTRL GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACRS TX SUNDAY...APPROACHING THE REGION MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP TO LIFT THE IDA/WEST GULF LOW SYSTEM NORTHEAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A BPT-AEX LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF IDA.
ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE EASTERLY FETCH OF WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE GULF LOW WILL ALLOW FOR WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MORNING LOWS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF UP TO 6 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING THROUGH MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE BEGUN TO RECEDE. WITH MOST OF THE
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN LA...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN WATER LEVELS ON THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND
CALCASIEU RIVERS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 58 76 62 72 / 10 40 70 60
KBPT 58 77 64 74 / 10 40 50 50
KAEX 52 77 59 72 / 10 20 50 50
KLFT 57 76 62 71 / 10 40 70 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAMERON-VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
000
FXUS64 KLIX 072216
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
416 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS. SEVERAL DIFFERENT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTERACT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. ALL OF THE FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH ONLY A FEW TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES OF
THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS VARYING. THE EASIEST WAY TO DISCUSS THE
SITUATION IS BY GOING THROUGH IT STEP BY STEP.
INITIALLY...THE PATTERN WILL DOMINATED BY THE ITERACTION BETWEEN A
BROAD AND VERY STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...AND A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND MOVE
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TOMORROW. THIS NORTHWARD
MOTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND INTO TEXAS. IN THE LOW AND
MID-LEVELS...STRONG GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS EASTERLY
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS HEADING INTO
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...OVERALL TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
LEVEL NEEDED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A
BIT...AS TROPICAL STORM...AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE IDA...MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND TURN INTO A SUB-TROPICAL OR EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY DUE TO COOLER GULF WATER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF.
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...THE OTHER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH IDA...RESULTING IN A VERY LARGE
EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS
THAT THE RIDGING WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THUS...STRONG EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. THESE STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...COMBINED WITH A LARGE SWELL ASSCOCIATED WITH THE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AND
THE NEED OF COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ACROSS COASTAL LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME...TIDE MODELS ARE SHOWING TIDE LEVELS
RUNNING 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE LOW WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT COASTAL
FLOODING AND WIND ISSUES WILL PERSIST OVER THAT TIME.
.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWEEPING THROUGH TURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDWEST...DRIVING A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
...CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW HUMDIITY VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PULL THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS...RIDGING TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RETURN FLOW TO SET UP. THIS
MOISTURE RETURN...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A STRONG
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...A LARGE SWELL TRAIN EMANATING FROM THE LOW AND TROPICAL
STORM IDA IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN WILL ALSO LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING
TO NEAR 12 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET
WORSE HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS TROPICAL STORM IDA
MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EXTRA-
TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL AND IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS OF 15 TO 20
FEET THROUGH MONDAY. A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE REMAINS
OF IDA MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE GULF COAST. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. 32
&&
.AVIATION...NO MAJOR ISSUES ON THE AVIATION FRONT AGAIN TONIGHT.
SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH. AS FOR VISBIES NOT
EXPECTING MUCH AS WINDS SHOULD START TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND TEMPS
WON`T BE QUITE AS COLD. ISSUES WILL START TO OCCUR TOMORROW EVENING
AS WINDS AND CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN SHOULD START TO RETURN LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 75 59 68 / 0 10 30 80
BTR 58 77 60 70 / 0 10 60 80
MSY 63 77 64 71 / 0 10 60 80
GPT 57 75 62 70 / 0 10 30 80
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
JEFFERSON...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
32
000
FXUS64 KSHV 072142
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
342 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...THE STRATOCU FIELD HAS ERODED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE IN THE OFFING...AS THE GULF
COAST REGION WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE REMNANTS OF TS IDA...AS IT
BECOMES DIRECTED TOWARDS THE COAST AHEAD OF THE OLD MX LOW DRIFTING E
THIS AFTERNOON. FLAT RIDGING PERSISTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS E INTO THE
SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW TO THE W EXPECTED TO OPEN UP
OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY ENHANCING DEEP LYR MOISTURE RETURN
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF POPS UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MID/HIGH BASED MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL EJECT OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BUT IN THE MEANTIME...AS WAS THE CASE THIS
MORNING...CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE STILL IN PLACE...WITH THE EXTENT
DICTATED BY THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE
NRN/GULF/SRN LA AND SE TX.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE REMNANTS OF IDA...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUBTROPICAL AS IT BECOMES PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH MONDAY. MAY
BEGIN TO SEE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AFFECT
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE CENTER DRIFTS INTO SE LA/SRN MS MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE PROGS MAINTAIN THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TRACKING
NE ALONG THE LS/MS COAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE 850-700MB LOW FARTHER
NW AWAY FROM THE SFC CENTER. THIS WOULD KEEP THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...OVER SE LA/SRN
MS/AL...AS THE REMNANTS OPEN UP AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE E AWAY FROM
THE REGION TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE EXACT UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TRACK...HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA...TAPERED OFF FARTHER W AWAY FROM THE CENTER. WILL NOT
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ATTM FOR THE ERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
THIS TRACK VERIFY...CAN/T RULE OUT QPF AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1" MAINLY E OF
A MLU...TO AEX LINE. GIVEN THE LAST 8 DAYS OF DRYING...AND THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE E OF THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING THIS RAINFALL
TO AGGRAVATE ONGOING RIVER/LAKE FLOODING ACROSS N LA.
STRONG CANADIAN SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD S INTO THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS
VALLEY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A REINFORCEMENT
OF A COOLER/DRY AIR MASS BACK INTO THE AREA. A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
YIELD THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FRIDAY AS SW FLOW COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEP TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DIG SE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SE...WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY B/W THE GFS AND
ECMWF TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM...ALTHOUGH
THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER/MORE BULLISH WITH RAINFALL THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE SHALL SEE.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.AVIATION...
AS PLANNED...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TERMINAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUBLE IS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. FEEL LIKE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET UP ONCE
AGAIN...TRAPPING SHALLOW MOISTURE WHICH WILL COME NORTH AGAIN FROM
THE COAST. HAVE MOST TERMINALS FALLING TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ACROSS MOST AREAS BY
SUNRISE...CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z OR SO. CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME MVFR IN THE 16-17Z TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT SO
TO SPEAK WOULD BE CIRRUS SPREADING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY
TEND TO INHIBIT GOOD FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...WILL BE PESSIMISTIC
AND GO WITH THE LOWER VIS CATEGORIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. /13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 54 75 59 71 56 / 0 10 20 40 20
MLU 50 75 58 68 57 / 0 0 30 50 50
DEQ 48 75 54 73 52 / 0 0 10 20 10
TXK 54 74 57 72 54 / 0 0 20 30 20
ELD 49 75 56 70 55 / 0 0 20 40 30
TYR 59 75 58 74 56 / 0 10 20 20 10
GGG 54 75 57 73 56 / 0 10 20 20 10
LFK 56 76 60 74 57 / 0 10 30 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/13
000
FXUS64 KLCH 071918
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
118 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCT/TEMPO BKN CU/SC
LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHILE A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD
APPROACHES FROM THE GULF. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY LOW CEILINGS BEING ABOVE 3000
FEET. ERLY/SERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNDOWN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM YET AGAIN AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. ATTM
HAVE ONLY CARRIED CEILINGS IN TEMPO GROUPS TOWARD SUNRISE ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER TAF ISSUANCES NEED TO CARRY
PREVAILING CIGS BELOW 3000 FEET LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ALTHOUGH WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER AM NOT GOING AS PESSIMISTIC AS THIS MORNING ATTM.
MAIN ISSUE FOR AVIATION INTERESTS ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE STRONG
SERLY WINDS FOR THE SRN SITES...ESPECIALLY KBPT/KLCH...AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF AND DEPARTING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TIGHTENS.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...
PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACRS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
ACRS THE REGION IS PRODUCING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WHILE
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS AND UPDATED ZONES TO
REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING. OTHERWISE...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT
FCST. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...A LOW LEVEL RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE UNDER AN INVERSION
AT 3K FEET HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT BPT AND LCH. EXPECT THIS DECK
TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY MID-MORNING AND BURN THROUGH TO VFR BY 15-16Z.
PATCHY FOG WITH TEMPO IFR VIS WILL LIKEWISE LIFT BY 14Z TO VFR.
11
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SEA BOARD DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. STLT IMAGES...INDCG A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS OVER THE BAY 0F CAMPECHE.
TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
US EAST COAST AND GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS NEAR 60. FOR SUNDAY THE SFC
TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND THE START OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CNTRL LA MONDAY.
FRONTAL SYS IN THE PLAIN STATES MONDAY DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND
BLOWS THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE.
BWR AND DWY REMAIN IN FLOOD ON THE SABINE. RAINS WITH THIS LATEST
EVENT DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT RIVER HEIGHT OR FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 79 60 76 63 74 / 10 10 30 60 60
KBPT 79 61 76 63 76 / 10 10 30 60 50
KAEX 78 55 75 58 73 / 10 10 20 40 50
KLFT 78 61 76 63 75 / 10 10 30 60 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 071711
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1111 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
PATCHY MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACRS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
ACRS THE REGION IS PRODUCING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WHILE
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEGINNING TO CREEP BACK NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT GRIDS AND UPDATED ZONES TO
REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING. OTHERWISE...NO BIG CHANGES TO CURRENT
FCST. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...A LOW LEVEL RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE UNDER AN INVERSION
AT 3K FEET HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT BPT AND LCH. EXPECT THIS DECK
TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY MID-MORNING AND BURN THROUGH TO VFR BY 15-16Z.
PATCHY FOG WITH TEMPO IFR VIS WILL LIKEWISE LIFT BY 14Z TO VFR.
11
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SEA BOARD DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. STLT IMAGES...INDCG A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS OVER THE BAY 0F CAMPECHE.
TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
US EAST COAST AND GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS NEAR 60. FOR SUNDAY THE SFC
TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND THE START OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CNTRL LA MONDAY.
FRONTAL SYS IN THE PLAIN STATES MONDAY DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND
BLOWS THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE.
BWR AND DWY REMAIN IN FLOOD ON THE SABINE. RAINS WITH THIS LATEST
EVENT DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT RIVER HEIGHT OR FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 79 60 76 63 / 10 10 30 60
KBPT 79 61 76 63 / 10 10 30 60
KAEX 78 55 75 58 / 10 10 20 40
KLFT 78 61 76 63 / 10 10 30 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAMERON-VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR JEFFERSON-ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KSHV 071708
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1108 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FG HAVE LIFTED THIS MORNING...BUT STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
LIFT...AS THIN BNDRY LYR MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH STEEP LOW
LEVEL INVERSION BASED ON THE 12Z KSHV/FWD RAOBS THIS MORNING. BELIEVE
THAT CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SFC HEATING
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT CLOUD COVER INTO A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT...BUT THIS
MAY BE MID/LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE IT HAPPENS. THUS...THIS DELAYED
CLOUD EROSION WILL LIKELY IMPACT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST MAXES DOWN TO THE MID 70S. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG SRLY WIND GUSTS OVER SE OK/WRN SECTIONS OF E TX TODAY...AS
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS SET UP. HOWEVER...SFC RIDGE WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA TODAY/TONIGHT...MAINTAINING
GENERALLY LIGHT SSE WINDS.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IFR/MVFR CATEGORY BEING STUBBORN THIS MORNING
TRYING TO BURN OFF. WINDS A LITTLE STRONG JUST OFF THE SURFACE
SHOULD MIX DOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH WILL HELP TO BURN THE
LOW CEILINGS/FOG OFF BY 17Z OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT A MVFR CEILING
HERE OR THERE BY 18Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME BUT THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
VFR AREAWIDE. WE SHOULD PLAY THE LOW CLOUD/IFR GAME AGAIN TONIGHT
AND WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. /13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 75 53 76 58 72 / 0 10 20 30 40
MLU 76 51 76 57 69 / 0 10 10 30 50
DEQ 75 47 75 52 73 / 0 10 10 20 20
TXK 76 54 75 57 72 / 0 10 10 20 30
ELD 75 50 76 55 71 / 0 10 10 30 40
TYR 76 56 76 59 74 / 0 10 20 30 30
GGG 76 54 76 57 74 / 0 10 20 30 30
LFK 77 56 78 59 75 / 0 10 30 40 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15/13
000
FXUS64 KLIX 071540 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
940 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
AFTER LOOKING AT MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE
UPDATED THE HAZARDS FOR TODAY. HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL TONIGHT AND CHANGED THE
ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 60NM TO REFLECT LIGHT
WINDS BUT HAZARDOUS SEA STATE CONDITIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO TO
THE MARINE PACKAGE WERE MADE. 32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...
SAT 00Z LIX SOUNDING WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST SEEN SINCE LIKELY LAST
WINTER WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.22 INCHES. THERE WAS AN
EXTREMELY DRY LOW LAYER AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRY MID INTO UPPER LAYER. A
SHIFT FROM NERLY TO MORE DUE EAST IN COLUMN WINDS SHOULD HELP
ALLEVIATE THIS SOMEWHAT TODAY. SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND UPPER HIGH
OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY. NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AND NO RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TD/S ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO MID
50S TO LOWER 60S BY THIS EVENING. BASICALLY THE SAME STORY TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S
AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...HAVEN/T MADE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY JUST SLIGHT SHIFTS IN LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS
AND AN INCREASE TO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS CONFIDENCE
HAS BEEN INCREASING. UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR
UPCOMING UNSETTLED WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS PROGGED TO STAY ON THIS TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US AND SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...IT APPEARS THAT IDA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR COAST AS
WELL AND SHOULD BE IN A TRANSITIONING STAGE INTO AN EXTRA TROPICAL
FEATURE AS THE TWO LOWS MERGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON TAP AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS REACHING 2 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START RAMPING UP IN THE SWRN PARISHES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT TO A
MORE GRADIENT POP ARRANGEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH HIGHER IN
COASTAL MISS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY BUT COULD STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE. WED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
SOME RIVER FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RED AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WHERE NEARBY ASOS OBSERVATIONS ARE DETECTING
INTERMITTENT IFR FG AND CIGS SCT V BKN 001. THESE AFFECTS SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND HAVE AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS AT KBTR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z THEN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
VSBY IN BR/FG DUE TO RIVER FOG ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z
SUNDAY.
MARINE...
EASTERLY GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED AT MODERATE WIND LEVELS INITIALLY
BUT ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
GULF AND WILL REALLY SHARPEN THE GRADIENT FOR A PERIOD OF GALE
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY FARTHER FROM SHORE. WILL POST A GALE WATCH
ON THIS PACKAGE FOR THE BEYOND 20NM WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
COMMENCING AROUND 06Z MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY DUE
TO IDA`S CLOSEST APPROACH...SOME 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KMSY AND
ABOUT 140 NM SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING COASTAL OFFICES AND NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY TROPICAL RELATED PROBABILISTIC STATEMENTS AS CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT THAT AFFECTS SHOULD BE MOST ATTRIBUTABLE TO GRADIENT WIND
COMPONENTS AND NOT THE CIRCULATION OF IDA. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO SCA CONDITIONS MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOTED.
REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH
THAT COASTAL FLOODING OF A MODERATE MAGNITUDE WILL RESULT WITH SOME
MINOR INUNDATION POSSIBLE TODAY...INCREASING IN HEIGHT WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE MAINTAINED STATUS QUO AT THIS TIME. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY STILL BE WARRANTED AT A LATER TIME BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
ONSET OF RUNUP AT SOME OF THE TIDAL GAGES BEFORE ISSUANCE.
CURRENTLY...MOST GAGES ARE SHOWING 0.5 TO 0.8 FOOT ANOMALIES ABOVE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TRACES. AS EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE...TIDAL RUNUP SHOULD BECOME MORE EVIDENCED LATER TODAY OR
BY TONIGHT. 24/RR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 77 50 75 58 / 0 0 10 30
BTR 78 55 76 61 / 0 0 10 50
MSY 79 60 76 65 / 0 10 10 50
GPT 76 53 75 61 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...AND
UPPER ST. BERNARD.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 071222
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
622 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...A LOW LEVEL RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE UNDER AN INVERSION
AT 3K FEET HAS PRODUCED MVFR CIGS AT BPT AND LCH. EXPECT THIS DECK
TO LIFT TO VFR CIGS BY MID-MORNING AND BURN THROUGH TO VFR BY 15-16Z.
PATCHY FOG WITH TEMPO IFR VIS WILL LIKEWISE LIFT BY 14Z TO VFR.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SEA BOARD DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. STLT IMAGES...INDCG A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS OVER THE BAY 0F CAMPECHE.
TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
US EAST COAST AND GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS NEAR 60. FOR SUNDAY THE SFC
TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND THE START OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CNTRL LA MONDAY.
FRONTAL SYS IN THE PLAIN STATES MONDAY DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND
BLOWS THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE.
BWR AND DWY REMAIN IN FLOOD ON THE SABINE. RAINS WITH THIS LATEST
EVENT DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT RIVER HEIGHT OR FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 79 60 76 63 74 / 10 10 30 60 60
KBPT 79 61 76 63 76 / 10 10 30 60 50
KAEX 78 55 75 58 73 / 10 10 20 40 50
KLFT 79 61 76 63 75 / 10 10 30 60 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 071159
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
559 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
CURRENT CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS INTO THE
MID 50S ACRS THE REGION.
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SEA BOARD DOWN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. STLT IMAGES...INDCG A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS OVER THE BAY 0F CAMPECHE.
TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE
US EAST COAST AND GULF MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
REGION. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPS NEAR 60. FOR SUNDAY THE SFC
TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND THE START OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INCREASING IN STRENGTH INTO MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN SOUTH-CNTRL LA MONDAY.
FRONTAL SYS IN THE PLAIN STATES MONDAY DIVES QUICKLY SOUTHWARD AND
BLOWS THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTN WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE.
BWR AND DWY REMAIN IN FLOOD ON THE SABINE. RAINS WITH THIS LATEST
EVENT DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT RIVER HEIGHT OR FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 79 60 76 63 74 / 10 10 30 60 60
KBPT 79 61 76 63 76 / 10 10 30 60 50
KAEX 78 55 75 58 73 / 10 10 20 40 50
KLFT 79 61 76 63 75 / 10 10 30 60 70
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
K. KUYPER
000
FXUS64 KSHV 071045
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
444 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AS THE RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AROUND 1027 MB HIGH NOW OVER THE EAST
COAST...WE ARE SEEING SOME LOW STRATUS SNEAKING INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN FAIR WITH
GOOD VSBY FOR MOST. LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THESE THICKER LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
KEEP JUST TO THE WEST OF CWA...AND REALLY NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN
EFFECT ON TODAY/S HIGHS. WE/RE PRETTY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THAT MATTER. MEANWHILE...MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS HOLDING AND EVEN DECREASING ON LAST ASCENT WITH
00Z PWAT BELOW 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. AND WATER VAPOR STILLING
SHOWING THIS DRY AIR IN PLACE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE OBVIOUSLY
MOISTENING UP A BIT. SHOULD BE A GREAT START TO THE WEEKEND.
AND THE LATTER PART...NOT TOO BAD EITHER WITH GFS TRENDING A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH IT/S MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...EURO STILL BROAD BRUSHING THE AREA
WITH SOME AMOUNT OF QPF. GOOD COMPROMISE IS THE HPC QPF GRIDS
WHICH ARE LOADED IN FOR THE MOST PART AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WORDING WITH PRECIP
EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS EVENT...BUT THE DRIER TREND NOTED YESTERDAY IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER...TPC TRACK IS FASTER AND FARTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY...SO
DECIDED TO KEEP POP/WX SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FOR NOW AS THERE IS
STILL ROOM FOR DEBATE. ACTUALLY...THE NEXT SYSTEM MID MONTH HAS
BEEN A CONSISTENTLY WETTER SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. MEX NUMBERS
BLENDED INTO EXTENDED WHICH STILL LOOK SEASONAL...BUT THE ACTUAL
SFC HIGH IS SLOWER AND WEAKER ON GFS AND EURO OVER OUR AREA...BUT
A GOOD NORTH WIND...EARLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF LIFTING GULF SFC
LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...AFFECTING
TYR AS OF 07/10Z. STRATUS WILL PUSH INTO LFK...AND POSSIBLY GGG...BY
07/12Z AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CARRIES GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION.
ALL AIRPORTS SHOULD BE VFR BY 07/15Z AND AFTERNOON CU WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS...AND PATCHY MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST. /18/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 53 76 58 72 / 0 10 20 30 40
MLU 76 51 76 57 69 / 0 10 10 30 50
DEQ 78 47 75 52 73 / 0 10 10 20 20
TXK 77 54 75 57 72 / 0 10 10 20 30
ELD 78 50 76 55 71 / 0 10 10 30 40
TYR 79 56 76 59 74 / 0 10 20 30 30
GGG 78 54 76 57 74 / 0 10 20 30 30
LFK 79 56 78 59 75 / 0 10 30 40 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/18
000
FXUS64 KLIX 070941
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SAT 00Z LIX SOUNDING WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST SEEN SINCE LIKELY LAST
WINTER WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.22 INCHES. THERE WAS AN
EXTREMELY DRY LOW LAYER AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRY MID INTO UPPER LAYER. A
SHIFT FROM NERLY TO MORE DUE EAST IN COLUMN WINDS SHOULD HELP
ALLEVIATE THIS SOMEWHAT TODAY. SFC RIDGE TO THE EAST AND UPPER HIGH
OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY. NOT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS AND NO RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS SHOULD BE A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND TD/S ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO MID
50S TO LOWER 60S BY THIS EVENING. BASICALLY THE SAME STORY TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 40S
AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...HAVEN/T MADE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY JUST SLIGHT SHIFTS IN LOCATION OF HIGHEST POPS
AND AN INCREASE TO THE DEFINITE CATEGORY FOR MONDAY AS CONFIDENCE
HAS BEEN INCREASING. UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR
UPCOMING UNSETTLED WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD. IT IS PROGGED TO STAY ON THIS TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL US AND SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
CWA. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE LA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...IT APPEARS THAT IDA WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR COAST AS
WELL AND SHOULD BE IN A TRANSITIONING STAGE INTO AN EXTRA TROPICAL
FEATURE AS THE TWO LOWS MERGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON TAP AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS REACHING 2 INCHES BY MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START RAMPING UP IN THE SWRN PARISHES
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SHIFT TO A
MORE GRADIENT POP ARRANGEMENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH HIGHER IN
COASTAL MISS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING
OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY BUT COULD STILL HAVE SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE. WED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN.
MEFFER
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME RIVER FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RED AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVERS WHERE NEARBY ASOS OBSERVATIONS ARE DETECTING
INTERMITTENT IFR FG AND CIGS SCT V BKN 001. THESE AFFECTS SHOULD BE
LOCALIZED AND HAVE AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS AT KBTR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z THEN PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
VSBY IN BR/FG DUE TO RIVER FOG ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z THRU ABOUT 14Z
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
EASTERLY GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED AT MODERATE WIND LEVELS INITIALLY
BUT ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL
GULF AND WILL REALLY SHARPEN THE GRADIENT FOR A PERIOD OF GALE
CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY FARTHER FROM SHORE. WILL POST A GALE WATCH
ON THIS PACKAGE FOR THE BEYOND 20NM WATERS WITH CONDITIONS
COMMENCING AROUND 06Z MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY DUE
TO IDA`S CLOSEST APPROACH...SOME 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KMSY AND
ABOUT 140 NM SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING COASTAL OFFICES AND NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...WILL NOT
MENTION ANY TROPICAL RELATED PROBABILISTIC STATEMENTS AS CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT THAT AFFECTS SHOULD BE MOST ATTRIBUTABLE TO GRADIENT WIND
COMPONENTS AND NOT THE CIRCULATION OF IDA. STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO SCA CONDITIONS MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE NOTED.
REGARDING COASTAL FLOODING...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGH
THAT COASTAL FLOODING OF A MODERATE MAGNITUDE WILL RESULT WITH SOME
MINOR INUNDATION POSSIBLE TODAY...INCREASING IN HEIGHT WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE MAINTAINED STATUS QUO AT THIS TIME. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY STILL BE WARRANTED AT A LATER TIME BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME
ONSET OF RUNUP AT SOME OF THE TIDAL GAGES BEFORE ISSUANCE.
CURRENTLY...MOST GAGES ARE SHOWING 0.5 TO 0.8 FOOT ANOMALIES ABOVE
PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TRACES. AS EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE...TIDAL RUNUP SHOULD BECOME MORE EVIDENCED LATER TODAY OR
BY TONIGHT. 24/RR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 77 50 75 58 / 0 0 10 30
BTR 78 55 76 61 / 0 0 10 50
MSY 79 60 76 65 / 0 10 10 50
GPT 76 53 75 61 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...AND
UPPER ST. BERNARD.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE
SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLIX 070531
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EACH OF THE TAFS SITES THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO LIGHT FOG AT KMCB AND KBTR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS CLOUDS ARE CONCERNED...ONLY A
THIN CIRRUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
PERIOD. 11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO LOWER MINS ABOUT A
CATEGORY IN LOCALLY FAVORABLE AREAS...SUCH AS PEARL RIVER
DRAINAGE...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AND ARE ON A TREND TO REACH LOWS VERY CLOSE
TO THOSE SEEN LAST NIGHT. ZFP HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. 35
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
UPDATE...
.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. AN EXTREMELY DRY
SOUNDING THIS EVENING WITH A PW OF ONLY 0.22 INCHES. A BONE DRY
AIR MASS ABOVE 950 MILLIBARS WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS -30 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE AND EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY AT THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS. A MINOR SURFACE
INVERSION AS WELL AS ANOTHER ONE AROUND 940 MILLIBARS IS PRESENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND ZFP TO REMOVE ASCENSION AND ST.
JAMES PARISHES...WHICH ARE LANDLOCKED PARISHES...FROM THE WATCH.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. 35
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SHORT TERM...
A SOMEWHAT SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE EXPECTED SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS TAKEN SHAPE TODAY. HOWEVER...A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THINKING HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF
RAIN FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL STILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE PARKED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND BEGIN TO DEEPEN A BIT
AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY IN
PLACE WILL STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THESE PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW
WATER TO PILE UP ON SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TIDES RUNNING A GOOD 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THE INTRODUCTION OF
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GULF...A SWELL TRAIN WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO
THE GULF WATERS. THIS ENHANCED WAVE ACTION WILL ONLY SERVE TO
EXACERBATE THE COASTAL FLOODING SITUATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GOING BEYOND THE WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS...SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A BROAD SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. OVERALL...RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FORTUNATELY...THE GROUND HAS BEEN ABLE TO DRY OUT A BIT DUE TO THE
RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...SO RIVER FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK
INTO THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM...
TROPICAL STORM IDA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
INLAND. NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW AND ON THE BACKSIDE
OF TROPICAL STORM IDA...WILL FORCE A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT...SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE...WITH COASTAL FLOODING...STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITIES. THE MAIN
CAVEAT WILL BE THE CONTINUED STRONG WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL TURN
MORE NORTHERLY...BUT REMAIN AROUND 20 MPH...DUE TO THE STRONG
PRESSRUE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THE OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL WEAKEN EACH DAY...AS
TROPICAL STORM IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPCAL AND WEAKENS NEAR FLORIDA.
CLEAR SKIES...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER HUMIDITIES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MARINE...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS
STRONG AND PERSISTENT FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS
OF 4 TO 8 FEET IN GULF WATERS. DUE TO THESE HIGH SEAS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN
UP...ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS. A FAIRLY LARGE
SWELL WILL BUILD UP WITH THESE WINDS...WITH SEAS OF NEARLY 12 FEET
POSSIBLE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN KICKER FOR THE
WORST MARITIME CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS
TROPICAL STORM IDA ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES
INTO CENTRAL AND THEN EASTERN GULF. A LARGE SWELL TRAIN COMING
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO NEAR 15 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR 10 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER OVER THE TIDAL LAKES...BUT STILL
SOLIDLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
WANE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 42 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 48 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 55 79 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 47 76 54 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER
PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...AND
UPPER ST. BERNARD.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST
PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 070529
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CHILL THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. PATCH FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
UPDATE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED OVER THE EAST
COAST...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF STATES. THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT WINDS TO CALM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...TEMPS FALLING NEAR EXPECTED MORNING LOWS. THUS...UPDATED
FORECAST TO BUMP DOWN TEMPS A CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...NOW EXPECTING MID 40S ACROSS C LA...UPPER 40S/NEAR 50
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM LFT TO LCH...AND LOWER 50S ACROSS SE
TX. ALSO...WITH THE ADDED RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUNRISE. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT THOUGH.
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE C AND
N GULF...WINDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS A THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...THIS LARGE EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF IS BEGINNING
TO EXHIBIT WATER PILEUP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...AS TIDES
ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOUT 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES THIS EVENING. THIS IS YIELDING A TOTAL TIDE NEAR 3 FEET AT
CAMERON AND LIKELY AT SABINE PASS (GAGE INOPERATIVE)...AND 2.5
FEET AT CYPREMORT POINT. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TIDES
COULD FURTHER INCREASE. THIS COULD RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS RUNNING
ABOUT ONE AND ONE HALF FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...WITH ACTUAL TIDE LEVELS REACHING BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4 FEET
DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THESE TIMES.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE WIND DIRECTION. IF IT SHIFTS MORE
NORTHEASTERLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LESS.
HOWEVER...IF IT REMAINS EASTERLY AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN SATURDAY...THE
THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR VERMILION...CAMERON...AND
JEFFERSON/ORANGE WILL BE GREATLY ENHANCED. THUS...ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH FOR VERMILION & CAMERON PARISHES IN SW LA...AND
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SE TX.
CONTINUED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES
FOR TIDES REACHING 2.5 TO POSSIBLY 3.5 FEET SAT. DONT EXPECT AS
MUCH WATER PILEUP DUE TO THE WNW TO ESE ORIENTATION THE COASTLINE
THERE IN RELATION TO THE WIND DIRECTION.
DML
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL TRAVEL EAST
INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY RADIATION
FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS FLAT UPPER RIDGE
MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SERN STATES IS RIDGING OVER
THE AREA...PROVIDING A NICE AFTN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF NICE WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE THINGS DETERIORATE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50 NORTH AND THE
LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT...REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR
80S BY SATURDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE WITH EASTERLY LL WINDS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...PW VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR WATER TO PILE UP
ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEE THE LATEST COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IDA...WHICH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY AFTN. CURRENT FCSTS TAKE IDA INTO THE
ERN GULF AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WRN FLA COAST BY MIDWEEK. THE
WRN GULF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH IDA ON MONDAY...PRODUCING
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION...PUSHING IDA FURTHER EAST
AND ALLOWING A DRIER NWRLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.
AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS. EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP YET AGAIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS. ATTM HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR RANGE
WITH WORST CONDITIONS (TEMPO 1SM BR) AT KBPT WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AS SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE
LONGER. ONCE THE LIGHT FOG BURNS OFF AROUND MID-MORNING JUST A
LITTLE CIRRUS AND INCREASING SERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE...
MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. THE COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WINDS
OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.
HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND CALCASIEU RIVERS. AT
THIS TIME...THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY DELAY THE RIVER
RECESSIONS RATHER THAN CAUSE AN INCREASE IN FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 49 79 60 79 62 / 10 10 10 30 60
KBPT 53 79 61 79 62 / 10 10 10 30 60
KAEX 46 78 55 78 57 / 10 10 10 20 40
KLFT 50 79 61 79 62 / 10 10 10 30 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KLCH 070516
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1116 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED OVER THE EAST
COAST...WITH STRONG RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF STATES. THIS
HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT WINDS TO CALM ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...TEMPS FALLING NEAR EXPECTED MORNING LOWS. THUS...UPDATED
FORECAST TO BUMP DOWN TEMPS A CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION...NOW EXPECTING MID 40S ACROSS C LA...UPPER 40S/NEAR 50
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM LFT TO LCH...AND LOWER 50S ACROSS SE
TX. ALSO...WITH THE ADDED RADIATIONAL COOLING...PATCHY FOG IS
DEVELOPING...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THRU SUNRISE. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT THOUGH.
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE C AND
N GULF...WINDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS A THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER...THIS LARGE EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS THE GULF IS BEGINNING
TO EXHIBIT WATER PILEUP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...AS TIDES
ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOUT 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES THIS EVENING. THIS IS YIELDING A TOTAL TIDE NEAR 3 FEET AT
CAMERON AND LIKELY AT SABINE PASS (GAGE INOPERATIVE)...AND 2.5
FEET AT CYPREMORT POINT. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TIDES
COULD FURTHER INCREASE. THIS COULD RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS RUNNING
ABOUT ONE AND ONE HALF FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES...WITH ACTUAL TIDE LEVELS REACHING BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4 FEET
DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENINGS...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THESE TIMES.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE WIND DIRECTION. IF IT SHIFTS MORE
NORTHEASTERLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LESS.
HOWEVER...IF IT REMAINS EASTERLY AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN SATURDAY...THE
THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR VERMILION...CAMERON...AND
JEFFERSON/ORANGE WILL BE GREATLY ENHANCED. THUS...ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH FOR VERMILION & CAMERON PARISHES IN SW LA...AND
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SE TX.
CONTINUED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES
FOR TIDES REACHING 2.5 TO POSSIBLY 3.5 FEET SAT. DONT EXPECT AS
MUCH WATER PILEUP DUE TO THE WNW TO ESE ORIENTATION THE COASTLINE
THERE IN RELATION TO THE WIND DIRECTION.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL TRAVEL EAST
INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY SATURDAY MORNING. PATCHY RADIATION
FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS FLAT UPPER RIDGE
MIGRATING EAST OVER THE AREA. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE
PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SERN STATES IS RIDGING OVER
THE AREA...PROVIDING A NICE AFTN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE DAY OF NICE WEATHER EXPECTED BEFORE THINGS DETERIORATE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AT THE
SFC AND ALOFT FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50 NORTH AND THE
LOWER 50S SOUTH TONIGHT...REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S OR NEAR
80S BY SATURDAY AFTN.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EAST...ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE WITH EASTERLY LL WINDS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...PW VALUES
WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR WATER TO PILE UP
ALONG THE COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEE THE LATEST COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IDA...WHICH IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A
TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY AFTN. CURRENT FCSTS TAKE IDA INTO THE
ERN GULF AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WRN FLA COAST BY MIDWEEK. THE
WRN GULF LOW WILL GRADUALLY MERGE WITH IDA ON MONDAY...PRODUCING
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTN FROM WEST TO EAST
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION...PUSHING IDA FURTHER EAST
AND ALLOWING A DRIER NWRLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ALOFT.
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.
AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS. EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AS GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP YET AGAIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS. ATTM HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE MVFR RANGE
WITH WORST CONDITIONS (TEMPO 1SM BR) AT KBPT WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST AS SERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN IN PLACE
LONGER. ONCE THE LIGHT FOG BURNS OFF AROUND MID-MORNING JUST A
LITTLE CIRRUS AND INCREASING SERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE...
MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST...POTENTIALLY MERGING WITH FORECAST TROPICAL STORM IDA OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF. THE COMBINATION OF IDA TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WINDS
OF 20-25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FEET OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.
HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL WITH THE UPCOMING EVENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NECHES...SABINE AND CALCASIEU RIVERS. AT
THIS TIME...THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY DELAY THE RIVER
RECESSIONS RATHER THAN CAUSE AN INCREASE IN FLOODING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 49 79 60 79 62 / 10 10 10 30 60
KBPT 53 79 61 79 62 / 10 10 10 30 60
KAEX 46 78 55 78 57 / 10 10 10 20 40
KLFT 50 79 61 79 62 / 10 10 10 30 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CAMERON...VERMILION.
TX...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON...ORANGE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
