000
FXUS61 KALY 220644
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN
FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH
DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER
THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.

MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.

MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD.  WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.

MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.

TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220307
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1005 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 220014
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
705 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG
AND JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. WILL BE MAKING SOME
MINOR CHANGES IN THE GRIDS BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
40S.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA
OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...LAKES ONTARIO AND
ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY WAS COVERED
BY A DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT WAS 2500-3500 FT ASL...WHICH HAD
RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF MOST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND AT 7PM...00Z...SKIES WERE CLEAR AT KALB...KGFL...AND
KPOU. THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF ALBANY WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A MVFR CIG AT KPSF...AND AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY
BE EXPECTD ACROSS THE TACONIC RIDGE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY
AND ALSO OVER HIGHER ELEVS OF THE CATSKILLS AND ADIRONDACKS
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THE CLEARING SKIES...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...HAS BROUGHT
ABOUT ANOTHER COMPLICATION...THAT BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF
RADIATION FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE
DEWPOINT RIGHT SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE FORECAST MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KGFL STARTING AT 04Z...WITH IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE BY
05Z...AND IFR CIG AND VISBY LIKELY AFTER 08Z. A LIGHT NORTH WIND OFF
THE MOHAWK RIVER WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN MVFR FOG STARTING AROUND
07Z. AT THIS POINT ...WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING KPOU TO REMAIN VFR WITH 6 MILES IN LIGHT FOG.

WINDS AT KALB WILL TURN NORTH AROUND 3 KTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CALM AT KGFL AND KPOU.

FOR SUNDAY...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF AND MIX OUT 1 TO
2 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...A BEAUTIFUL VFR DAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 212352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
652 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THREATENS THE REGION
WITH MORE RAIN VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.  SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

TEMPERATURES ALREADY RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES EARLY
THIS EVENING...SO HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT OVERNIGHT.  LOWS
SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...WITH
EVEN SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDEST SPOTS
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA.  THE WARM SPOT SHOULD BE THE
URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON WITH LOWS AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S.

ISOLATED PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT
LEAST SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS AND ALSO ITS INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH
SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE SOUTHERN AND WEAKEST
SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN EFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.  THE GEM/NAM CERTAINLY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING MAINLY
RAIN/DRIZZLE.  THE ECMWF IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE VERY WET GEM/NAM
BUT IT DOES LEAN IN MORE OF THEIR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAN IN THE ECMWF/S DIRECTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS
TRACK RECORD IN THIS TIMEFRAME.  WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN FACT...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS INTO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE REGION.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COOL
AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE
LOWER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.  CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WHAT
EVER FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER.  HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SPINNING OFF
THE COAST.   PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY.  HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKSGIVING DAY MAY TURN OUT DRY.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AGAIN...TIMING AND FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO WARM SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/PASSING RAIN SHOWER SO WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE.  ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG
DEAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD AFFECT THE BAF/BDL TERMINALS
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...MAINLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED UPON THE BUILDING
SEAS...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD
GRADIENT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER THIS
TIME.  SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF MARGINAL GALE
AT SOME POINT.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 212027
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE THREATENS THE REGION
WITH MORE RAIN VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
THE THICKEST CLOUDS NOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. FARTHER
WEST...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BANKED UP AGAINST THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT AT
LEAST SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE MAIN DILEMMA IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS AND ALSO ITS INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS ALONG WITH
SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE SOUTHERN AND WEAKEST
SOLUTIONS VERIFY THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME RAIN WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

THE MAIN QUESTION IS WILL A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN EFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE REGION.  THE GEM/NAM CERTAINLY SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE
THE GFS/UKMET ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH SUGGESTING MAINLY
RAIN/DRIZZLE.  THE ECMWF IS NOT AS EXTREME AS THE VERY WET GEM/NAM
BUT IT DOES LEAN IN MORE OF THEIR DIRECTION. THEREFORE...WE WILL
LEAN IN THE ECMWF/S DIRECTION FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ITS
TRACK RECORD IN THIS TIMEFRAME.  WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS.  IN FACT...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS INTO CATEGORICAL LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE REGION.

DESPITE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE LOW AND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR INTENSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
ANY COASTAL FLOODING.  HOWEVER...MINOR BEACH EROSION CERTAINLY IS
POSSIBLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT WILL BE RATHER COOL
AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND THE
LOWER 50S WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.  CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH THAT WHAT
EVER FALLS WILL BE IN THE LIQUID VARIETY.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THIS TIME...BUT THE STEADIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER.  HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SPINNING OFF
THE COAST.   PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY DIMINISH LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST AND THE LOW FINALLY PULLS AWAY.  HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6
DAYS OUT...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THANKSGIVING DAY MAY TURN OUT DRY.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.

HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
ALLOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AGAIN...TIMING AND FORECASTS ARE
SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERRORS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO
LOOK TOO WARM SUPPORT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION EVEN IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR FOR MOST OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

SATURDAY...
BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FILTERED INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE SYSTEM.  MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/PASSING RAIN SHOWER SO WILL RUN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE.  ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES FALL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG
DEAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN LOW CLOUDS/RAIN SHOWERS FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING...MAINLY VFR BUT CONDITIONS MAY
DETERIORATE LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BASED UPON THE BUILDING
SEAS...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND GOOD
GRADIENT.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA ACROSS MOST OF OUR WATERS OVER THIS
TIME.  SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 7 AND 12 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER-WATERS.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF MARGINAL GALE
AT SOME POINT.

THANKSGIVING...WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...SEAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE VERY LATE THANKSGIVING NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK

000
FXUS61 KALY 211946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
246 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.

ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.

IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211856
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY
THANKSGIVING...BEFORE A POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
THE THICKEST CLOUDS NOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. FARTHER
WEST...PLENTY OF CLOUDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES BANKED UP AGAINST THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THIS SHOULD MEAN ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...BUT THIS TIME
WITH ONSHORE WINDS BY AFTERNOON. THESE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
MARINE STRATUS LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF I-95 IN MA AND RI. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE WIND
SHIFT THOUGH...THINKING THIS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN SUNDAY NIGHT.

MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE ONCE AGAIN...SO USED A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.

SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.

WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MOST LOCATIONS. GREATER RISK OF MVFR CIGS ALONG
THE EAST COAST AND SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBOS-KPVD.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N TONIGHT...THEN NE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS BELOW 5 FT TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD OVER 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE NE WINDS GET
ESTABLISHED. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION ABOUT STRENGTH OF THESE
WINDS...WHICH WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE APPROACH OF A LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERABLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/THOMPSON
MARINE...BELK/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 211829
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST...SLIDING
OFF INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE MONDAY. CLOUDS OVER THE REGION
WILL DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OUR
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FIRST A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS
WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES AND AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN
RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO.  FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR.  STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR.  WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.

UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED.  MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.

FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.

THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.

TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 211736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1236 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL AT
ALB AND GFL AS MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES IS TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION. THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF KPOU...SO
JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET AT BEST. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU AT 10 KT OR LESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN...AND BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS...CLEARING WILL BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD BE AROUND 04Z AT GFL...AND 06Z AT KALB.
ONCE THE SKY SLEARS...AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY AROUND KGFL...THROUGH SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM...BUT IN SOME AREAS LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED-THU...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 211555
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1055 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. AREAS
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME
DOWNSLOPE IS OCCURRING...ARE REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
HINTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE THAT SOME AREAS MAY SEE THE CLOUDS BREAK
UP TO SOME DEGREE. SO...GOING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS. BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS...CURRENT MAX
TEMPERATURES LOOK IN THE BALL PARK. EVERYTHING ELSE UNTOUCHED.

PREV AFD BELOW...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS
MORNING AS STRATO CU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE
THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS
NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY
LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY THANKSGIVING BEFORE A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH
MORE SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH
EXISTING FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THERE. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
FACTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.

SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.

WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED AT 11 AM. WANT TO
GET ONE MORE ROUND OF BUOY REPORTS TO BE SURE. WINDS ARE NOT THE
CONCERN AT THIS POINT...BUT THE LINGERING ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERABLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...BELK/EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/RLG/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 211119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
613 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

TODAY...MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...BEFORE
RISING TO VFR LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING EVEN LONGER. AT KPOU...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON WHETHER ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...OR SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 06Z/SUN. AT THIS TIME...DUE
TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE INDICATED FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FT AGL AT KGFL AND KALB AFTER 08Z/SUN...BUT SHOULD MOISTENING
TRENDS CONTINUE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME IFR
CIGS LATER TONIGHT AT THESE TERMINALS. AT KPOU...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR...WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING LATE DUE TO
PATCHY GROUND FOG.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210958
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A DRY THANKSGIVING BEFORE A
POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT 08Z...
FOR NOW. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA/NJ ON
THE IR SATELLITE LOOP...HEADING E IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY...THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TODAY...WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR.

WITH THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...UPWARDS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS SOME RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY.

SEEING TENDENCY FOR VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO PROJECT
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SHREF PROBABILITIES. NOTICED THAT 00Z ECMWF IS WETTER THAN ITS PRIOR
RUN. THERE ARE TIMING AND QPF VARIATIONS AMONG THE MODELS.
THUS...HAVE NOT TRIED TO BE TOO PRECISE ON TIMING OF ONSET AND
ENDING OF POPS AND HAVE CAPPED AT HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. SUSPECT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL GET MEASURABLE SOMETIME IN THE MON NIGHT TO TUE NIGHT
TIME FRAME BUT CANNOT PIN THE TIMING DOWN ANY BETTER. THE GLOBAL GEM
STILL LOOKS TOO ROBUST GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE POSITION.
HOWEVER...AS WEAK AS SYSTEM IS...DOES LOOK LIKE DECENT OVERRUNNING
WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCE. AS FAR AS TIMING...AM SUSPICIOUS
THAT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER NOVA SCOTIA AT THE OUTSET MAY DELAY THE SPREAD OF RAIN
INTO SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHEAST MA MON NIGHT.

WED IS A LITTLE COMPLICATED WITH VIGOROUS NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE
TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
FAIRLY WELL EAST OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GFS DEPICTS SE FLOW THAT
COULD IN ITSELF CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WHEREAS THE
ECMWF SHOWS LESS RH AND FLAT GRADIENT AMIDST WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TRICKY FOR WED GIVEN WARM AIR MASS ALOFT WITH 8+C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BUT INVERSION MAY PREVENT REALIZING THE RELATIVE WARMTH
AT THE SURFACE. IF GET ENOUGH SUN...THEN WED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
END UP CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH PERHAPS A SUNNY START
BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROF HELPS INITIATE A COASTAL LOW BUT
AGAIN MEDIUM MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY AND TRACK. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS THU
NIGHT AND FRI. AIR MASS MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY TOWARD BACK PART OF
STORM TO CAUSE PTYPE UNCERTAINTY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NW ZONES ON FRI BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS CURRENTLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MON THRU WED...VFR MON BECOMING MVFR WITH AREAS IFR IN RAIN AND FOG
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL REPORTING SWELLS AT 5-6 FT. ONLY KEPT
IT GOING FOR THE MORNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY VEER TO MORE NW-N LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

PERSISTENT E GRADIENT WITH CONSIDERBLE FETCH WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS
NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT EXPOSED COASTAL WATERS MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING AND
MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET SCA WIND THRESHOLDS OVER MOST OF WATERS.
RESPITE LIKELY LATE WED THRU THU BEFORE RISK OF POTENT COASTAL LOW PRES
SYSTEM TOWARD END OF WEEK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...EVT/THOMPSON
MARINE...EVT/RLG/THOMPSON

000
FXUS61 KALY 210908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START
TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND PASS
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SHRINK ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS STRATO CU
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE THROUGH FA. LAKE RESPONSE
HAS BEEN WEAK AT BEST AND WITH AIRMASS NOT BEING VERY COLD EXPECT
THAT LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS WILL ONLY LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY TODAY AND HAVE
TEMPS IN MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN START TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
VALLEYS THAN TODAY AS DESPITE NEARLY FULL SUN...ORIENTATION OF
HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WEAK LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND MIXING WILL
BE POOR ONLY UP TO 925 MB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING AND THEN
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON
EXACT TRACK AND ORIENTATION OF PCPN SHIELD...GEM APPEARS TO BE
THE FASTEST AND WETTEST WITH NAM NOT FAR BEHIND AS BOTH HAVE
LEADING EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD AT LEAST NORTH OF I90 BEFORE 00Z TUE AND
QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS FA. WHILE GFS
AND ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF INTO SE THIRD OF FA BEFORE 00Z TUE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I90
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NT-TUE...STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE
GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN
WEAKER...AND FURTHER S/E WITH THE TRACK. THE 00Z/21 GEM IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...TRACKING IT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO THE S/E HALF OF REGION. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
S/E...WHILE THE 00Z/21 ECMWF AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE MREFS KEEP
MOST PRECIP OUT OF OUR REGION...JUST CLIPPING FAR SE AREAS LATE MON
NT INTO EARLY TUE. BASED ON THIS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
HALF OF REGION...WHILE KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS DRY. AS FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GMOS...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
30S...AND TUE MAXES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD THE
CLOUDS/PRECIP EXTEND FURTHER N/W...EVEN COOLER MAXES ARE POSSIBLE.

TUE NT-WED...WILL INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
MOST MODELS HINT AT SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...BY LATE WED...ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
THE W MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN BY LATE WED. THUS...HAVE INDICATED SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SW AREAS FOR LATE WED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS TUE NT MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

WED NT-FRI...MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL PRECIP DURING THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. THE
00Z/GFS HINTS AT A FASTER WAVE MOVING THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NT
WITH RAIN...WHILE MOST MREF MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS
NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
FOR RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO
COOL...WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU...AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY
THU NT OR EARLY FRI. WHETHER THIS PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD AND
STEADY...OR MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TO
RECEIVE MEASURABLE SNOW SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR
TEMPS...EXPECT MINS WED NT TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH THU MAXES
MAINLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 40S FOR VALLEYS. FOR
THU NT...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 30S FOR THE VALLEYS...WITH FRI MAXES
RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITHIN THE VALLEYS. IT MAY ALSO BECOME QUITE
WINDY BY FRI...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ANY SFC LOW
PASSING TO OUR E OR NE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z/SAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN 06Z/SAT TAF ISSUANCE.

SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/SUN AT KGFL DUE TO
GROUND FOG FORMATION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE STARTING TO RECEDE OR WILL CREST
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RISES FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND...WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT ALLOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT
THIS TIME WITH STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210850
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT 08Z...
FOR NOW. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA/NJ ON
THE IR SATELLITE LOOP...HEADING E IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY...THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
TODAY...WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR.

WITH THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...UPWARDS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N
OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG
THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE.  THIS
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY
FORECAST.

MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST.  WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS
GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL.  GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON
NIGHT.  GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT.  NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT
DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE
POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT.

TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH
CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST.  WE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO
FRI.  BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST.

MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN.  VFR NORTH OF THE
PIKE.

TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL REPORTING SWELLS AT 5-6 FT. ONLY KEPT
IT GOING FOR THE MORNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
THEY VEER TO MORE NW-N LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS
AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES BUT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE.  LOWERED
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/RLG

000
FXUS61 KALY 210526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1219 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED DEW POINT...POPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS. INCREASED CLOUDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO REPRESENT OVC SKIES ESP OVER
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN THOUGH SKY GRIDS
INCREASED...TEMPS AND MIN TEMP STILL ON TARGET. DECREASED POPS AS
RADAR SHOWS DECREASING DBZS ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA..WITH WINDS SHOWING A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DECREASE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH ABOUT 14Z/SAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE NOT INDICATED THIS IN 06Z/SAT TAF ISSUANCE.

SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/SUN AT KGFL DUE TO
GROUND FOG FORMATION...WITH A BETTER CHANCE EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE W TO NW AT 5-10 KT TODAY...BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SAT
MORNING...ESP AT KALB...POSSIBLY REACHING 15-20 KT. IN ADDITION...AT
KGFL...SOME VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOCALIZED TOPOGRAPHICAL EFFECTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KGS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL/KGS/IAA
HYDROLOGY...KGS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 210430
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1130 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IR SATELLITE SHOWING A THIN VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CROSSING THE
REGION IN THE UPPER LEVEL W FLOW AT 04Z. NOTING MORE CIRRUS CLOUDS
WORKING OUT OF PA/OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL WORK E OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES
WILL WORK OUT OF WV/MD/VA REGION INTO NY STATE BY SAT MORNING.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISH ACROSS MANY LOWLAND AREAS...WITH SOME WIND STILL
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPTS DOWN TO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 AS
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO THE 40S AT 04Z...EXCEPT AROUND 50 ON THE
ISLANDS.

HAVE KEPT MINS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT WILL
DEPEND UPON IF HIGH CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S /RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL/.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE.  THIS
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY
FORECAST.

MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST.  WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS
GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL.  GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON
NIGHT.  GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT.  NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT
DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE
POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT.

TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH
CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST.  WE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO
FRI.  BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VFR.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
VFR WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.

MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN.  VFR NORTH OF THE
PIKE.

TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE SMALL CRAFT ON BOTH BLOCK ISLAND AND
RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS. NOTED SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 3-4 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR OUTER WATERS AS SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FEET. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
WILL ALSO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 06Z-07Z ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. WAVE GUIDANCE HAS
INITIALIZED HIGH SO AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WON/T DROP A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST. SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
YET.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH SUN
NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE.  LOWERED
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/RLG
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 210032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
732 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED DEW POINT...POPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS. INCREASED CLOUDS
SLIGHTLY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO REPRESENT OVC SKIES ESP OVER
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH COUNTRY. EVEN THOUGH SKY GRIDS
INCREASED...TEMPS AND MIN TEMP STILL ON TARGET. DECREASED POPS AS
RADAR SHOWS DECREASING DBZS ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES...AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA..WITH WINDS SHOWING A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DECREASE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. REGION WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KALB-KGFL WHICH WE HAVE
INDICATED A BKN030...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM /OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ HAS RESULTED IN A
SCT-BKN020-040 WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THEREAFTER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER PRONOUNCED WITH
THIS CLOUD DECK BECOME DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PLACE A MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A SCT MID
LEVEL DECK EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KGS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/KGS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KGS

000
FXUS61 KALY 202315
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. REGION WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KALB-KGFL WHICH WE HAVE
INDICATED A BKN030...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE UPSTREAM /OHIO RIVER VALLEY/ HAS RESULTED IN A
SCT-BKN020-040 WHICH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
THEREAFTER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER PRONOUNCED WITH
THIS CLOUD DECK BECOME DOMINATE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PLACE A MVFR CIG
AT THIS TIME.  OTHERWISE...KPOU SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH A SCT MID
LEVEL DECK EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...KGS


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 202100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET REMAINING UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ARE DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS AS
EVIDENCED IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS HAVE
PREVENTED DEWPOINTS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 50S THERE.

19Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR DRYING OUT OF THE LOWER LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT A GOOD 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW THIS MORNINGS LOWS. MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S /RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL/.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE.  THIS
WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY
FORECAST.

MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE
CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS
NEAR THE COAST.  WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS
GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL.  GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON
NIGHT.  GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT.  NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP
RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE.
MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT
DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE
POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT.

TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH
CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST.  WE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO
FRI.  BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING.  POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
HEAVY PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 1230 PM COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT JUST WEST OF BOS-PVD LINE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD WITH VFR /CIGS 035-050/ BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21Z-22Z.

TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS FROM 06Z-12Z SLIPPING OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO MHT AND NEARBY TERMINALS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
VFR WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST.

MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN.  VFR NORTH OF THE
PIKE.

TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD
AIR ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED HIGH SO AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WON/T DROP A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST. SO HAVE
OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT YET.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES THROUGH SUN
NIGHT BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE.  LOWERED
WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE
SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.

WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA
MARINE...KJC/RLG
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 202035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
335 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE WITH COASTAL LOW MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ECMWF KEEPS FA DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WITH A POSITIVE TILT BY LATE FRIDAY. PRECIP
MOVING OUT OF THE FA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE M/U30S
IN THE VALLEYS AND L30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING TO THE
M50S IN THE VALLEYS AND M/U40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
BEFORE THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES ITS WAY IN ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE M40S IN THE VALLEYS AND U30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY AS RAIN...WITH SPOTS OF
-RASN ABV 2500FT. COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AND ALL SNOW AT TIMES. THURSDAY NIGHT
EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEYS AND SNOW AT ELEVATIONS
500FT AND ABV. WITH CONDITIONS DRYING LATE FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER ON FRIDAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE L/M40S IN THE
VALLEYS AND M/U30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER LEVELS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER HALF OF A FOOT
OR LESS IN REACTION TO LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WATER
LEVELS WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RECEDE. OUR NEXT CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...KGS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
256 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET REMAINING UNDER OVERCAST
SKIES. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ARE DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS AS
EVIDENCED IN DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS HAVE
PREVENTED DEWPOINTS FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 50S THERE.

19Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT HAVING CLEARED ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR DRYING OUT OF THE LOWER LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL START BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. BEING ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...EXPECT LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT A GOOD 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW THIS MORNINGS LOWS. MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF
PATCHY FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S /RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL/.  USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 1230 PM COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT JUST WEST OF BOS-PVD LINE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD WITH VFR /CIGS 035-050/ BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21Z-22Z.

TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS FROM 06Z-12Z SLIPPING OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO MHT AND NEARBY TERMINALS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
VFR WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD
AIR ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. WAVE GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED HIGH SO AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WON/T DROP A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST. SO HAVE
OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT YET.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 201840
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...IN THE 30S. LOOKING
AT RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 201833
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR MONTREAL TO LABRADOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ALONG
THE DELMARVA COAST AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OCCLUDED FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
REGION WITHIN CAA. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...AS VORTICITY SPIRALING AROUND THE LARGE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTN. SKIES HAVE BECOME SCT ACROSS THE HUDSON
AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS...SO HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS ALLOWED WESTERLY WINDS TO BE GUSTY...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN
HOURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED VALLEY
AREAS.


SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE WEEKEND WE HAVE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WAVES PRODUCE A TROFF FM YUL TO ORD ACROSS THE GRTLKS
RGN...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SFC OVER THE MIDWEST AND
GRTLKS. MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF HI RH MAINLY WELL WEST OF FCA...BUT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN PS CONDS SAT. THIS AREA DYNAMICS DRYS OVER
TIME AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA...AND WEAK
500HPA TROF AXIS SLIDES SE OF RGN SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY WOULD BRING
M.S. CONDS AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE GRTLKS AND SFC HIGH IS
OVER RGN. WITH LT WINDS AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY...WEEKEND SHOULD BRING NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMALS TEMPS
WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MDLS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT...TIMING AND TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW. HPC...NAM...AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL SUPPRESSED TO OUT
SOUTH RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PS-MS
CONDS MUCH OF MONDAY. BGM PLANS ON SLOWING THE PCPN THREAT
CONSIDERABLY IN THIS PERIOD AND BTV WILL KEEP IT DRY AND FAIR AS
WE WILL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH CLEAR
SKIES STARTED WITH COLD MET TEMPS AND TOOK THEM A FEW DEGREES
LOWED SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH MORE SUN ON MON

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER

000
FXUS61 KALY 201744
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 952 AM EST...OCCLUDED FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE CWA...CURRENTLY
CROSSING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITHIN CAA. WITH THE FORCING EAST OF THE
AREA...KENX RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO PRECIP LEFT ACROSS
THE REGION...SO WILL DROP POPS IN ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...AS VORTICITY
SPIRALING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTN. SKIES
HAVE BECOME SCT ACROSS THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS...SO
HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS ALLOWED
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE GUSTY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PASSING TO OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT KALB WHICH HAVE INDICATED WITH A SCATTERED 2500 FT CLOUDS
IN TAF AS AREA IS AFFECTED BY LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BE CUT OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT LOW LEVELS SHIFTING THE FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201738
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1238 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LINGERING ON THE OUTER CAPE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NANTUCKET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CAPE...SOUTH COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE ISLANDS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THEY
SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS
OF 1730Z. IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY
HIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO DROP WEST OF WORCESTER. AS
THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL START DROPPING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...
AT 1230 PM COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT JUST WEST OF BOS-PVD LINE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY IFR. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD WITH VFR /CIGS 035-050/ BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO
GUSTS TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21Z-22Z.

TONIGHT...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS FROM 06Z-12Z SLIPPING OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO MHT AND NEARBY TERMINALS.

SAT AND SAT EVENING...
VFR WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD - UPDATED 1237 PM
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201730
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1230 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
SPRINKLES LINGERING ON THE OUTER CAPE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NANTUCKET. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CAPE...SOUTH COASTAL
MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE ISLANDS REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THEY
SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT A BIT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT HAS ALMOST CLEARED THE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS AS
OF 1730Z. IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY
HIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES HAVE STARTED TO DROP WEST OF WORCESTER. AS
THE FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL START DROPPING AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD FRONT AT 15Z WAS FROM MHT/ORH/IJD AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. EXPECT WIND
SHIFT AT PVD AROUND 16Z...BOS 16-17Z AND THEN ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET 17-18Z. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
TIL ABOUT 21Z...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT
CIGS FROM 025-035.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201512
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AT 15Z. THERE IS ANOTHER FINE LINE OF SHOWERS FROM LOWELL MA TO
PUTNAM CT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS IN BETWEEN THESE
LINES OF SHOWERS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE EDITED BOTH SKY AND
POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO
LAST LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND APPEARS
TO BE FROM JAFFREY NH TO WORCESTER MA TO WILLIMANTIC CT AT 15Z.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OPPOSED
TO 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT TO W AND MAY
BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD FRONT AT 15Z WAS FROM MHT/ORH/IJD AND MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR. EXPECT WIND
SHIFT AT PVD AROUND 16Z...BOS 16-17Z AND THEN ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET 17-18Z. WEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
TIL ABOUT 21Z...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT
CIGS FROM 025-035.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD - UPDATED 1011 AM
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201503
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AT 15Z. THERE IS ANOTHER FINE LINE OF SHOWERS FROM LOWELL MA TO
PUTNAM CT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES IN NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS IN BETWEEN THESE
LINES OF SHOWERS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO SOME AREAS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. HAVE EDITED BOTH SKY AND
POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO
LAST LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND APPEARS
TO BE FROM JAFFREY NH TO WORCESTER MA TO WILLIMANTIC CT AT 15Z.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS
THIS AFTERNOON... WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND IT.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OPPOSED
TO 50S TO NEAR 60 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT TO W AND MAY
BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CT VALLEY AS OF 11Z. SCT TSTMS REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER S ACROSS LONG ISLAND...BUT COULD GET AS FAR N AS
KPVD/KBOS 13Z-17Z. KEPT MENTION OF CB GROUP IN ALL BUT KBAF/KBDL/KMHT
TAFS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO/FM GROUP
FOR TSTMS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING. EXPECT PERIOD OF IFR AS
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND IT. CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR ALONG COAST AND MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN
TAFS...ESPECIALLY KFMH/KHYA/KACK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT KBOS WILL LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND SHIFT TO W/NW KBDL 14Z...
KBOS/KPVD/KMHT 18Z- 19Z AND KACK 20-22Z. BRIEF 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 201453
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
953 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 952 AM EST...OCCLUDED FRONT IS WELL EAST OF THE CWA...CURRENTLY
CROSSING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED DRIER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION WITHIN CAA. WITH THE FORCING EAST OF THE
AREA...KENX RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO PRECIP LEFT ACROSS
THE REGION...SO WILL DROP POPS IN ALL AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR LOW CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE DACKS...AS VORTICITY
SPIRALING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY MAY STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS THERE THIS AFTN. SKIES
HAVE BECOME SCT ACROSS THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEY AREAS...SO
HAVE DECREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS MORNING AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE
ACTUALLY DROPPED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY...MIXING HAS ALLOWED
WESTERLY WINDS TO BE GUSTY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND CHANNELED VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY.

KGFL...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
THEN...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z/SAT DUE TO GROUND FOG. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...THEN END.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 KT.

KALB...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THEN END. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE WEST...AND
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST AT 10-15 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

KPOU...INITIALLY VFR TO MVFR...MAINLY FOR CIGS...THEN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS FOR RAIN...WITH FRONT NOW EAST OF
KPOU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...CHC MVFR -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
826 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AT
13Z. BASED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING...HAVE
SPED UP THE EXIT OF THE SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. S-SE WINDS GUSTING TO
20 KTS ALONG THE S COAST.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO
LAST LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE BERKSHIRES AT 13Z MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO
25 KT MAINLY ALONG THE S AND E COASTS THIS MORNING...AND MAY GET A
BIT HIGHER IN ANY TSTMS.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE
FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AS OPPOSED TO 50S TO NEAR 60
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL SEE PRECIP END BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY...HEADING TO THE E COAST POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY SHIFT TO W AND MAY BE GUSTY WITH
SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A BLEND OF THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CT VALLEY AS OF 11Z. SCT TSTMS REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER S ACROSS LONG ISLAND...BUT COULD GET AS FAR N AS
KPVD/KBOS 13Z-17Z. KEPT MENTION OF CB GROUP IN ALL BUT KBAF/KBDL/KMHT
TAFS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO/FM GROUP
FOR TSTMS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING. EXPECT PERIOD OF IFR AS
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND IT. CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR ALONG COAST AND MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN
TAFS...ESPECIALLY KFMH/KHYA/KACK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT KBOS WILL LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND SHIFT TO W/NW KBDL 14Z...
KBOS/KPVD/KMHT 18Z- 19Z AND KACK 20-22Z. BRIEF 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT/RLG
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KALY 201142
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT AT 09Z JUST EAST OF KRME AND KMSV AND MOVING
QUICKLY E. HAVE ONLY LEFT THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND CAT POPS IN
UNTIL 12Z AS BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD ALREADY INTO MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER IN EASTERN
NY BY 12Z AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 14Z. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED AND THEY HAVE OCCURRED WITH KDDH
REPORTING 35 KTS AT 0715Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT AND IN AREAS WHERE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CHANNELED. EVEN AFTER FROPA SOME GUSTS TO 30
OR 35 MPH POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND IN EAST-WEST VALLEYS SUCH AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ONCE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...BULK OF FA WILL BE
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A LARGE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE ONLY AREA WHERE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
BEING ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY VORT LOBE.

TEMPS NEVER DROPPED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ROSE IN SOME AREAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WOULD
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
THUS HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S NEAR KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY.

KGFL...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY.
THEN...DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...SOME REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z/SAT DUE TO GROUND FOG. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...THEN END.
WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AT 8-12 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 KT.

KALB...CONDITIONS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR...MAINLY FOR
CIGS...THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS FOR
RAIN...WE EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 13Z IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...THEN END. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED INTO THE WEST...AND
WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST AT 10-15 KT...WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT TO LESS THAN 10 KT.

KPOU...INITIALLY VFR TO MVFR...MAINLY FOR CIGS...THEN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBYS INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS FOR RAIN...WITH FRONT NOW EAST OF
KPOU...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...CHC MVFR -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
611 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AT 09Z. NOTED A QUICK TSTM OVER CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH
CG LTNG IN THAT REGION...AS WELL AS ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
MOVING OUT OF NYC AREA INTO SW CT. VERY WIDE TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RATHER BALMY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY
MORNING. EXAMPLE...TEMP JUMPED FROM 54 TO 62 IN AN HOUR AT KHFD
/08Z-09Z/...WHILE HOLDING AT 48 AT KBED. S-SE WINDS STARTING TO PICK
UP ALONG THE S COAST.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S.  HOWEVER...NOTING THE RATHER
THIN BAND ON RADAR AT 09Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO LAST
LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS JUMPING TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AFTER SUNRISE WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AS WELL
AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST THIS MORNING...AND MAY GET A BIT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. NOTED PEAK WINDS OF 32 AND 34 KT AT KAQW /N ADAMS/ AND
KDDH /SW VT/...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH THIS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE PRECIP END BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY...HEADING TO THE E COAST BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AND MAY BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CT VALLEY AS OF 11Z. SCT TSTMS REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER S ACROSS LONG ISLAND...BUT COULD GET AS FAR N AS
KPVD/KBOS 13Z-17Z. KEPT MENTION OF CB GROUP IN ALL BUT KBAF/KBDL/KMHT
TAFS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO/FM GROUP
FOR TSTMS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING. EXPECT PERIOD OF IFR AS
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND IT. CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR ALONG COAST AND MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN
TAFS...ESPECIALLY KFMH/KHYA/KACK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT KBOS WILL LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND SHIFT TO W/NW KBDL 14Z...
KBOS/KPVD/KMHT 18Z- 19Z AND KACK 20-22Z. BRIEF 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...EVT

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
611 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AT 09Z. NOTED A QUICK TSTM OVER CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH
CG LTNG IN THAT REGION...AS WELL AS ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
MOVING OUT OF NYC AREA INTO SW CT. VERY WIDE TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RATHER BALMY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY
MORNING. EXAMPLE...TEMP JUMPED FROM 54 TO 62 IN AN HOUR AT KHFD
/08Z-09Z/...WHILE HOLDING AT 48 AT KBED. S-SE WINDS STARTING TO PICK
UP ALONG THE S COAST.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S.  HOWEVER...NOTING THE RATHER
THIN BAND ON RADAR AT 09Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO LAST
LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS JUMPING TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AFTER SUNRISE WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AS WELL
AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST THIS MORNING...AND MAY GET A BIT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. NOTED PEAK WINDS OF 32 AND 34 KT AT KAQW /N ADAMS/ AND
KDDH /SW VT/...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH THIS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE PRECIP END BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY...HEADING TO THE E COAST BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AND MAY BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CT VALLEY AS OF 11Z. SCT TSTMS REMAIN A
LITTLE FARTHER S ACROSS LONG ISLAND...BUT COULD GET AS FAR N AS
KPVD/KBOS 13Z-17Z. KEPT MENTION OF CB GROUP IN ALL BUF KBAF/KBDL/KMHT
TAFS SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO/FM GROUP
FOR TSTMS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING. EXPECT PERIOD OF IFR AS
SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR BEHIND IT. CIGS HAVE
REMAINED VFR ALONG COAST AND MAY END UP HIGHER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN
TAFS...ESPECIALLY KFMH/KHYA/KACK. FAIRLY CONFIDENT KBOS WILL LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING WIND SHIFT TO W/NW KBDL 14Z...
KBOS/KPVD/KMHT 18Z- 19Z AND KACK 20-22Z. BRIEF 20-25KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED BY RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...EVT

000
FXUS61 KALY 200943
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
443 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT US THE WET WEATHER
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR FUNNELING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCCLUDED FRONT AT 09Z JUST EAST OF KRME AND KMSV AND MOVING
QUICKLY E. HAVE ONLY LEFT THE THREAT OF THUNDER AND CAT POPS IN
UNTIL 12Z AS BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD ALREADY INTO MOHAWK VALLEY
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER IN EASTERN
NY BY 12Z AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 14Z. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED AND THEY HAVE OCCURRED WITH KDDH
REPORTING 35 KTS AT 0715Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS MAINLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT AND IN AREAS WHERE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE CHANNELED. EVEN AFTER FROPA SOME GUSTS TO 30
OR 35 MPH POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AND IN EAST-WEST VALLEYS SUCH AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ONCE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...BULK OF FA WILL BE
DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS A LARGE DRY SLOT MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE LOW LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE ONLY AREA WHERE SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE LIKELY
BEING ENHANCED BY A SECONDARY VORT LOBE.

TEMPS NEVER DROPPED MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ROSE IN SOME AREAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WOULD
EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT VALUES.
THUS HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S NEAR KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FUNNELS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS
AREA ONLY DOWN IN THE MID 30S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH
ACCUMULATION...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY ABOVE 2000 FEET MAY
PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SN0W. SOME SHOWERS MAY WORK AS FAR SOUTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN VERMONT BUT HAVE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS. REMAINDER OF FA
EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS FA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUN NT-MON NT...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT STORM
SYSTEM...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AS THE
00Z/20 GFS AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS DEPICT WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MON NT...WHILE THE 00Z/20 GEM/ECMWF/UKMET
INDICATE THAT BEST CHC OF RAIN OCCURS ACROSS S/E PORTIONS OF
REGION...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS N/W AREAS. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE INDICATED CHC POPS...HIGHEST TO THE S/E...STARTING EARLY
MON...AND ENDING LATE MON NT. FOR SUN NT...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHC
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND NIL TO THE N...AS HIGH PRESSURE MAY
SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP SOMEWHAT.
OTHERWISE...ASSUMING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MON TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE OVERNIGHT MINS MON AM FALL INTO THE
30S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 20S ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS...WITH
WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 30S EXPECTED FOR MON NT/TUE AM. SUN NT/MON AM
MINS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AS CLOUDS POTENTIALLY INCREASE.

TUE-THU...FAIRLY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD...AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ON
THANKSGIVING...WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF HINT AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
LOW...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY LOW DEEPENING TO OUR N/E. AT THIS TIME...HAVE
INDICATED ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE-WED...THEN CHC POPS FOR THU...FOR
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. EXPECT A COOLING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH WARMEST
MAXES ON TUE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...FALLING TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S FOR WED...AND MAINLY 40S BY THU...WITH EVEN SOME 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY MID/UPPER 30S
FOR TUE/WED AM...WITH LOWER/MID 30S POSSIBLE THU AM...ALONG WITH
SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
AROUND DAYBREAK. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ON SATURDAY.

KGFL...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 08Z...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
POSSIBLE. BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACCOMPANYING HEAVIER RAIN
AFTER 08Z. ALTHOUGH RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF
FRONT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z...IFR CIGS MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT...FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN WILL SHIFT INTO
THE SW AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT DURING FRI MORNING...PERSISTING INTO
THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH
12Z...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SE...WHILE WINDS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SSE AT 35-40 KT.

KALB...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 08Z...WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR POSSIBLE...ESP FOR VSBYS. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z-11Z WITH HEAVIER RAIN AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IFR SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR TO VFR BY LATE MORNING...WITH VFR
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN...WITH
STEADIEST/HEAVIEST PERIOD OF RAIN BETWEEN 08Z-11Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHC FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT DUE TO OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITY...HAVE INCLUDED CB APPENDAGE TO CLOUDS...AND NO MENTION
OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS AFTER
11Z...AND END AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO
5-10 KT...BEFORE BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME WEST...AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH 12Z...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT FROM THE SE...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE
SSE AT 35-40 KT.

KPOU...TRICKY CALL FOR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS CONDITIONS
TO THE S/E OF KPOU ARE IFR TO LIFR...WHILE KPOU REMAINS MVFR. THIS
MAY BE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OF SE WINDS FROM NEARBY TACONIC RIDGE. WE
HAVE GENERALLY KEPT MVFR CIGS THROUGH 09Z...THEN INDICATED A PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS THROUGH 11Z WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT AND POTENTIAL HEAVIER
RAINFALL. THEREAFTER...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR...THEN
VFR BY MID MORNING. AS FOR RAIN...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS...WITH A
PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHOWERS BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z-11Z. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THIS TIME...AND HAVE
INDICATED A CB APPENDAGE TO CLOUD GROUP DUE TO THIS. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 11Z...AND END BY 13Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 8-12 KT THROUGH 11Z...THEN
SHIFT INTO THE W AT SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC THROUGH 12Z...AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SE...WHILE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL
INCREASE FROM THE SSE AT 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT-SUN NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...CHC MVFR -RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
TO A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEW YORK WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
IN EASTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IN MOST AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS OF
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF WILL VARY QUITE A
BIT WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIVERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION
INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED AND WHERE THE GROUND
MOISTURE IS HIGHEST. RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON
MANY RIVERS IN THESE AREAS...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW BANKFULL.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH BY MID MORNING...WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVERS TO RECEDE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO
SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...11

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200928
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING RAIN TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER
PATTERN MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AT 09Z. NOTED A QUICK TSTM OVER CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY WITH
CG LTNG IN THAT REGION...AS WELL AS ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
MOVING OUT OF NYC AREA INTO SW CT. VERY WIDE TEMP RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVE RATHER BALMY CONDITIONS THIS EARLY
MORNING. EXAMPLE...TEMP JUMPED FROM 54 TO 62 IN AN HOUR AT KHFD
/08Z-09Z/...WHILE HOLDING AT 48 AT KBED. S-SE WINDS STARTING TO PICK
UP ALONG THE S COAST.

WILL SEE QUICKLY CHANGING WEATHER THROUGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH. STRONG SHORT WAVE WORKING THROUGH E NY STATE THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...TOTAL TOTALS UP TO THE LOWER
50S AND K INDICES IN THE LOWER 30S.  HOWEVER...NOTING THE RATHER
THIN BAND ON RADAR AT 09Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO LAST
LONG...BUT WILL SEE A GOOD SLUG OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS JUMPING TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AFTER SUNRISE WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AS WELL
AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST THIS MORNING...AND MAY GET A BIT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. NOTED PEAK WINDS OF 32 AND 34 KT AT KAQW /N ADAMS/ AND
KDDH /SW VT/...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH THIS WILL MIX DOWN IN THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BEHIND IT. WILL SEE PRECIP END BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY...HEADING TO THE E COAST BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AND MAY BE GUSTY WITH SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN. USED A
BLEND OF THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT PUSHES E OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S...WHICH IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL BUT A
GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...EXPECTING A MILD AND MAINLY SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRES
EXPANDS INTO NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH W WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...NOT REALLY TOO MUCH COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND W CT AT 09Z.
STILL ISOLD-SCT TSTMS SEEN ACROSS N NJ AND NYC AREA. KEPT MENTION OF
SCT THUNDER THROUGH THIS MORNING...THOUGH A LOW RISK AT THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS. KEPT MENTION OF CB IN THE TAF SITES AS THE SHOWERS/LOCAL
TSTMS MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

EXPECT WIND SHIFT FROM S-SE TO W BY 16Z ACROSS THE CT VALLEY...THEN
AROUND 19Z-20Z OVER E MA. MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY
FROM W-E WITH THE WIND SHIFT. MAY SEE W WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR.

SAT...VFR. W-NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...EXITING THE EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN ANY TSTMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO W AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUOYS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY REPORTING UP TO 5
FOOT SEAS...AND WILL LIKELY REACH 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. W WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 25 KT EARLY WITH BRIEF COLD AIR
ADVECTION...THEN LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...W-NW WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS. A CLOSE CALL...BUT DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT YET.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 200737
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN TO
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY REMAIN
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE BECOME OVERCAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH 04Z. LEADING EDGE
OF SHOWERS ALSO APPROACHING THE CT VALLEY...NOTING A LIGHT SHOWER AT
KBAF AND ACROSS W MA/CT. AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL NY STATE AND E PA. EXPECT THIS TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NOT TOO WIDE A BAND OF SHOWERS...BUT BACK
EDGE OF SHOWERS MAY START TO APPROACH THE BERKSHIRES BY 12Z...
THOUGH WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR TIMING OF THIS. HAVE UPDATED
THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO SLOW TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT...BUT STILL
EXPECT SHOWERS ACROSS MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE EXCEPT THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

HAVE ALSO NOTED A FEW CG LTNG STRIKES AROUND 03Z NEAR NYC...THOUGH
THAT HAS DISSIPATED IN THE S-SW UPPER FLOW. ALSO SEE A FEW MORE
TSTMS ACROSS E PA/CENTRAL NY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT FEEL
ANY TSTMS THAT HOLD TOGETHER WILL REMAIN W OF THE REGION UNTIL AFTER
12Z.

WITH INCREASING S-SE WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALREADY SEEING TEMPS EITHER HOLDING
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. EXAMPLE...TEMP AT KTAN ROSE FROM 45 AT 03Z
TO 52 AT 04Z. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGHS COMING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DECLINING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
INDICATED IN THE K AND TOTAL INDICES /SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 AND 50
RESPECTIVELY/.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND TWICE THE
NORMAL VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON.  THEN AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC...PULLING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING AN
END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER.  SHOWERS WILL ALSO START TO
DISSIPATE AFTER NOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE EVENING...BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAINFALL.  HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN TONIGHTS...BUT STILL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. HOWEVER AS IT HEADS
OFFSHORE SUN AFTERNOON...WE MAY SEE SOME CLOUDINESS DEVELOP NEAR
COAST AS CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...HELD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL LATE SUN
AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT.

MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE. MOST OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
MUCH FASTER THAN ENSEMBLES IN BRINGING RAIN TO REGION /SUN NIGHT AND
MON VS MON NIGHT AND TUE/. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL
SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN BOTH DAYS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHERE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. ECMWF/GGEM TAKE LOW JUST OFFSHORE AND BRING
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TO S COAST...WHILE GFS IS FARTHER INLAND AND
SHIFTS HEAVIER RAIN OVER MUCH OF REGION. WE CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS GFS IS AN OUTLIER...AND MORE OFFSHORE
ECMWF/GGEM IS PREFERRED. MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MON INTO
TUE...THOUGH WE MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THESE HIGHER POPS INTO
TUE GIVEN SLOW PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WED/THU WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL
SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING
COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS REGION WED
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...
CIGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING TO AROUND 3-4KFT...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS
DOWN TO MVFR-IFR. CIGS/VSBYS DOWN TO LIFR AT KORH AT 05Z. LIGHT
SHOWERS STARTING TO MOVE INTO CT VALLEY AT 04Z BUT NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECT AREA OF SHOWERS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MAY NOT QUITE REACH CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...
LINE OF SHOWERS /SOME HEAVY/ MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF EMBEDDED THUNDER. THUS INSERTED CB
INTO THE TAFS 12Z- 15Z BDL/BAF TO 15Z-18Z ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...TIMING ROUGHLY 16Z-18Z BDL/BAF TO 18Z-21Z ALL OTHER
TERMINALS.

SAT...VFR. WNW GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SAT NIGHT...IFR POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUN...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE.
MON...MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...S-SE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. NOTING SEAS UP TO 5 FT AT BUOY 025 S OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND.
ALSO EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD SLOWLY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH AROUND NOON TIME. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF ANY HIGHER GUSTS THAT MAY OCCUR WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.  COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SEAS
4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS ARE LIKELY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR
LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS.  WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS.  NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND NOW.

SAT...EARLY SCA CONDS WITH W/NW G25 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS. NE FLOW GETS UNDERWAY SUN BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

INCREASING E/NE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SCA CONDITIONS MON INTO TUE
AS COASTAL LOW PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING
MARGINAL GALE FORCE /34KT/ GUSTS ON S COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM DEPARTS...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE AWHILE
LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE PROVIDENCE NOAA ALL-HAZARDS RADIO TRANSMITTER HAS BEEN RETURNED
TO SERVICE.

THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR /TDWR/ S OF BOSTON IS OUT OF
SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD
EQUIPMENT...EVT