000
FXUS61 KBOX 090322
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT S OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH SW FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
STORM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST EXCEPT TO MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH
TERRAIN AND URBAN CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS WHERE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATEST. MAV GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL SO USED A 2:1 BLEND OF MAV AND MILDER MET TO DERIVE MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...ANOTHER SPECTACULAR NOVEMBER DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.  THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.  DEVELOPING SW
FLOW WILL ADVECT EVEN MILDER AIRMASS INTO SNE.  DEPTH OF MIXING
LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT 950 MB TEMPS REACH +15 TO +16C WHICH
SUPPORT TEMPS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IT WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST SW LLJ DEVELOPS.

FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE LATE.  AS WAS THE CASE
WITH LAST NIGHTS FRONT...MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS WILL BE A DRY
FROPA BUT RH TIME SECTIONS DO INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST LARGELY BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS WAS DISREGARDED FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE AS IT IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER.

OVERALL...FOR NOW...THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NORMAL
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME...ALONG WITH WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR TUESDAY...WE ARE LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES MAY CLOUD UP
FOR A TIME WITH COLD FRONT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED...NORTHERLY BREEZE COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
COOL CANADIAN AIR GETS USHERED INTO SNE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SUNNY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WHICH MEANS PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE ON IDA IN THE GULF AND HOW IT MAY INTERACT
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FOR MIDWEEK...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS BE LESS OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER AS IT REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR SKC. PATCHY GROUND FOG LOW LYING SECTIONS.

MONDAY...VFR...HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT.  INCREASING SW FLOW MON INTO MON
NIGHT.  DEVELOPING SW LLJ 35-40 KT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS LATE MON AND MON EVENING...MAINLY TO EAST COASTAL MA
WATERS.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LIMIT GUSTS
JUST BELOW 25 KT.  NO SCA.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS DOWNWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THAN
WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT IT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT THE SCENARIO CHANGING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROB OCCURRENCE
AT THIS TIME. KEPT WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE WINDIEST PERIOD WED INTO EARLY THURS. CUT WAY BACK ON WNA
GUIDANCE. IF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS CONTINUE WITHOUT MUCH
WAVERING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF OF IT/S
BULLISH SOLUTION...THEN WINDS AND SEAS MAY NEED TO BE CUT BACK EVEN
FURTHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER/STRAUSS
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 090231
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
930 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM EST...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...WITHIN A
VERY DRY AIR MASS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET...DROPPING 25-30
DEGREES FROM AFTERNOON MAXES IN SOME AREAS. GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHING OVERHEAD...AND PASSING E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE EXPECT MOST MINS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS...WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG AND W OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WE HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY A
FEW DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS...WHICH HAVE FALLEN BELOW MOST
MOS VALUES.

OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITHIN DEEPER RIVER VALLEY AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO CLOUDS ARE WITHIN MANY MILES OF OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COLD AIR INTERACTING
WITH WARMER LAKES AND RIVERS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SHORES OF RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MORNING FOG WILL LIFT...AND THE SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH...BREEZY AT TIMES IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON UPSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AND THE
HIGHS UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INDICATION...WE SHOULD GET A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
70 WARMER SPOTS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH TIMING
FROM GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUING TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES. WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MIX OF
CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...NEAR 50 WARMER SPOTS...AND
AROUND 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME MIX OF CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND
TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENING...AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES JUST
BEGINNING TO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...LOWER TO MID 50S
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO NOT INCLUDING AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. THE QUESTION OF WHEN/IF IDA INTERACTS WITH
UPPER ENERGY TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND WHAT
POTENTIAL STORM OR NO STORM RESULTS. MOST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
EITHER DELAY ANY MERGING...OR KEEP A POTENTIAL STORM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION...SO KEEPING OUR REGION DRY AND CONTINUED DEEP
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES...BUT VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES. AT THIS
POINT...SUGGESTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHAT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL DRY PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THEREFORE
WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TO START THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH
TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF ALSO
INDICATES THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW
INCREASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON/S BAY
TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC
SO FAR OUT INTO THE FCST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.

KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/TUE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS LATER THIS EVENING...AND OCCASIONALLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY DUE TO PATCHY GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME S TO SW AT 5-10 KT
MONDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-18 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KALB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/TUE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THIS EVENING...THEN WILL BECOME SE TO S LATER TONIGHT AT LESS THAN 5
KT...AND INCREASING FROM THE S ON MONDAY AT 10-15 KT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPOU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/TUE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME S TO SW AT 8-12 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
THAN NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO AFFECT OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SCENARIOS KEEP US
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 082329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO CLOUDS ARE WITHIN MANY MILES OF OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COLD AIR INTERACTING
WITH WARMER LAKES AND RIVERS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SHORES OF RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MORNING FOG WILL LIFT...AND THE SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH...BREEZY AT TIMES IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON UPSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AND THE
HIGHS UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INDICATION...WE SHOULD GET A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
70 WARMER SPOTS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH TIMING
FROM GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUING TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES. WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MIX OF
CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...NEAR 50 WARMER SPOTS...AND
AROUND 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME MIX OF CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND
TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENING...AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES JUST
BEGINNING TO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...LOWER TO MID 50S
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO NOT INCLUDING AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. THE QUESTION OF WHEN/IF IDA INTERACTS WITH
UPPER ENERGY TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND WHAT
POTENTIAL STORM OR NO STORM RESULTS. MOST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
EITHER DELAY ANY MERGING...OR KEEP A POTENTIAL STORM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION...SO KEEPING OUR REGION DRY AND CONTINUED DEEP
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES...BUT VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES. AT THIS
POINT...SUGGESTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHAT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL DRY PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THEREFORE
WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TO START THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH
TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF ALSO
INDICATES THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW
INCREASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON/S BAY
TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC
SO FAR OUT INTO THE FCST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.

KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/TUE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS LATER THIS EVENING...AND OCCASIONALLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY DUE TO PATCHY GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME S TO SW AT 5-10 KT
MONDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-18 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KALB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/TUE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THIS EVENING...THEN WILL BECOME SE TO S LATER TONIGHT AT LESS THAN 5
KT...AND INCREASING FROM THE S ON MONDAY AT 10-15 KT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPOU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/TUE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME S TO SW AT 8-12 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
THAN NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO AFFECT OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SCENARIOS KEEP US
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 082051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO CLOUDS ARE WITHIN MANY MILES OF OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COLD AIR INTERACTING
WITH WARMER LAKES AND RIVERS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SHORES OF RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MORNING FOG WILL LIFT...AND THE SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH...BREEZY AT TIMES IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON UPSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AND THE
HIGHS UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INDICATION...WE SHOULD GET A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
70 WARMER SPOTS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH TIMING
FROM GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUING TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES. WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MIX OF
CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...NEAR 50 WARMER SPOTS...AND
AROUND 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME MIX OF CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND
TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENING...AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES JUST
BEGINNING TO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...LOWER TO MID 50S
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO NOT INCLUDING AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. THE QUESTION OF WHEN/IF IDA INTERACTS WITH
UPPER ENERGY TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND WHAT
POTENTIAL STORM OR NO STORM RESULTS. MOST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
EITHER DELAY ANY MERGING...OR KEEP A POTENTIAL STORM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION...SO KEEPING OUR REGION DRY AND CONTINUED DEEP
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES...BUT VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES. AT THIS
POINT...SUGGESTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHAT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL DRY PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THEREFORE
WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TO START THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH
TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF ALSO
INDICATES THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW
INCREASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON/S BAY
TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC
SO FAR OUT INTO THE FCST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASICALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LAND THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER SC ERODED
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.  A WEAK COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH GFL AND ALB AS
OF 1730Z...KICKING NW WINDS UP TO A FEW KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.  THUS THE
BALANCE OF TODAY WILL OFFER AN IDEAL FLYING OPPORTUNITY.

A LAYER OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NE PA MAY CONDENSE INTO
CI AS IT PASSES NEAR POU...OTRW CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN SOME CI/AC ROLLS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.  FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT
GFL...BUT WHETHER IT GETS ALL THE WAY DOWN DOWN TO IFR IS
QUESTIONABLE.  SO...OUTSIDE OF GFL...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MON PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA.  CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY...MAINLY POU.
WED NGT-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
THAN NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO AFFECT OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SCENARIOS KEEP US
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 082026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT S OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH SW FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
STORM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.  LOW
TEMPS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE GREATEST.  MAV GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL SO USED A 2:1
BLEND OF MAV AND MILDER MET TO DERIVE MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...ANOTHER SPECTACULAR NOVEMBER DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.  THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.  DEVELOPING SW
FLOW WILL ADVECT EVEN MILDER AIRMASS INTO SNE.  DEPTH OF MIXING
LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT 950 MB TEMPS REACH +15 TO +16C WHICH
SUPPORT TEMPS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IT WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST SW LLJ DEVELOPS.

FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE LATE.  AS WAS THE CASE
WITH LAST NIGHTS FRONT...MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS WILL BE A DRY
FROPA BUT RH TIME SECTIONS DO INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST LARGELY BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS WAS DISREGARDED FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE AS IT IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER.

OVERALL...FOR NOW...THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NORMAL
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME...ALONG WITH WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR TUESDAY...WE ARE LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES MAY CLOUD UP
FOR A TIME WITH COLD FRONT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED...NORTHERLY BREEZE COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
COOL CANADIAN AIR GETS USHERED INTO SNE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SUNNY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WHICH MEANS PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE ON IDA IN THE GULF AND HOW IT MAY INTERACT
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FOR MIDWEEK...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS BE LESS OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER AS IT REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR SKC. ISOLATED GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR...HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT.  INCREASING SW FLOW MON INTO MON
NIGHT.  DEVELOPING SW LLJ 35-40 KT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS LATE MON AND MON EVENING...MAINLY TO EAST COASTAL MA
WATERS.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LIMIT GUSTS
JUST BELOW 25 KT.  NO SCA.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS DOWNWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THAN
WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT IT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT THE SCENARIO CHANGING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROB OCCURRENCE
AT THIS TIME. KEPT WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE WINDIEST PERIOD WED INTO EARLY THURS. CUT WAY BACK ON WNA
GUIDANCE. IF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS CONTINUE WITHOUT MUCH
WAVERING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF OF IT/S
BULLISH SOLUTION...THEN WINDS AND SEAS MAY NEED TO BE CUT BACK EVEN
FURTHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
207 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT S OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH SW FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THIS HIGH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.  LOW
TEMPS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE GREATEST.  MAV GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL SO USED A 2:1
BLEND OF MAV AND MILDER MET TO DERIVE MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...ANOTHER SPECTACULAR NOVEMBER DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.  THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.  DEVELOPING SW
FLOW WILL ADVECT EVEN MILDER AIRMASS INTO SNE.  DEPTH OF MIXING
LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT 950 MB TEMPS REACH +15 TO +16C WHICH
SUPPORT TEMPS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IT WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST SW LLJ DEVELOPS.

FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE LATE.  AS WAS THE CASE
WITH LAST NIGHTS FRONT...MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS WILL BE A DRY
FROPA BUT RH TIME SECTIONS DO INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF ENERGY FROM
IDA MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. THE GGEM IS THE SLOWEST OF THIS CAMP TO DO SO...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE QUICKEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY 2
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING IT. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY TO NOT BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE END OF
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR SKC. ISOLATED GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR...HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT.  INCREASING SW FLOW MON INTO MON
NIGHT.  DEVELOPING SW LLJ 35-40 KT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS LATE MON AND MON EVENING...MAINLY TO EAST COASTAL MA
WATERS.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LIMIT GUSTS
JUST BELOW 25 KT.  NO SCA.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF NOW HURRICANE IDA. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. CANNOT YET IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE TRENDED WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK
MARINE...KJC/BELK
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 081753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM...SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...OTHERWISE SKC.  A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS COMES ACROSS FOR A
TRANQUIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MAIN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST
WAS TO MATCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).

THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT  THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.

BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.

THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASICALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LAND THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER SC ERODED
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.  A WEAK COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH GFL AND ALB AS
OF 1730Z...KICKING NW WINDS UP TO A FEW KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.  THUS THE
BALANCE OF TODAY WILL OFFER AN IDEAL FLYING OPPORTUNITY.

A LAYER OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NE PA MAY CONDENSE INTO
CI AS IT PASSES NEAR POU...OTRW CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN SOME CI/AC ROLLS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.  FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT
GFL...BUT WHETHER IT GETS ALL THE WAY DOWN DOWN TO IFR IS
QUESTIONABLE.  SO...OUTSIDE OF GFL...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MON PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA.  CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY...MAINLY POU.
WED NGT-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081505
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.
WEAK FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...MILDEST CT AND INTERIOR
RI/E MA. LLJ MOVES OFFSHORE SO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CAPE/ISLANDS AND SHIFT TO W/NW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS.

MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED
TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF ENERGY FROM
IDA MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. THE GGEM IS THE SLOWEST OF THIS CAMP TO DO SO...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE QUICKEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY 2
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING IT. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY TO NOT BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE END OF
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
INLAND.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR 5 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF BID-MVY. A FEW G25 KT ACK SOUND AND
ADJACENT E WATERS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ MOVES
OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
NOW HURRICANE IDA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND STRONGER
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CANNOT YET IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY...
SO HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/BELK/STRAUSS
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KALY 081419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM...SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...OTHERWISE SKC.  A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS COMES ACROSS FOR A
TRANQUIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MAIN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST
WAS TO MATCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).

THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT  THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.

BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.

THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED AS OF 1130Z. HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KGFL
LATE TONIGHT WHEN MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. OTHERWISE MAINLY P6SM SKC TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS INITIALLY AT KALB...THEN
SHIFT TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED NITE-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081227
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
727 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AROUND
DAYBREAK. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WAS
TRANSPORTING MILDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. OVERALL THERE WILL BE
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE TODAY FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
YESTERDAYS. H925 TEMPS AROUND +10 CELSIUS WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT LEVEL SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS.

MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED
TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF ENERGY FROM
IDA MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. THE GGEM IS THE SLOWEST OF THIS CAMP TO DO SO...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE QUICKEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY 2
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING IT. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY TO NOT BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE END OF
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
INLAND.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
NOW HURRICANE IDA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND STRONGER
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CANNOT YET IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY...
SO HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
     FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS/BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/BELK
MARINE...STRAUSS/BELK
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 081139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).

THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT  THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.

BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.

THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY DISIPATED AS OF 1130Z. HAVE FORECAST
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KGFL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. OTHERWISE MAINLY P6SM SKC TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS INITIALLY AT KALB...THEN
SHIFT TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED NITE-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBOX 080934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NEW YORK STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS TRANSPORTING
MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WERE CROSSING THE AREA DUE TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING BUT
OVERALL THERE WILL BE LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE TODAY FROM JUST PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
YESTERDAYS. H925 TEMPS AROUND +10 CELSIUS WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT LEVEL SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS.

MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED
TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF ENERGY FROM
IDA MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. THE GGEM IS THE SLOWEST OF THIS CAMP TO DO SO...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE QUICKEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY 2
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING IT. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY TO NOT BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE END OF
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. LEFTOVER BKN ALTOCUMULUS AROUND 8000 FT THROUGH 12Z.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
INLAND.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
NOW HURRICANE IDA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND STRONGER
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CANNOT YET IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY...
SO HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
     FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS/BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/BELK
MARINE...STRAUSS/BELK
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 080913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).

THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT  THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.

BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.

THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU
TAF SITES SOMETIME AROUND 14Z. THE CLOUD DECK AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS FOR KALB WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS INITIALLY...THEN TEND TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LATER IN THE MORNING THEY WILL SWITCH TO WEST AT UNDER 10 KTS...THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD SUNSET. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO BE
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...AND CALM
TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBOX 080852
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NEW YORK STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS TRANSPORTING
MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WERE CROSSING THE AREA DUE TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING BUT
OVERALL THERE WILL BE LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE TODAY FROM JUST PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
YESTERDAYS. H925 TEMPS AROUND +10 CELSIUS WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT LEVEL SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS.

MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED
TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF.

IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A COUPLE
OF FANTASTIC NOVEMBER DAYS FEATURING DRY MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE A LITTLE BIT UNSURE OF THE EXACT
TIMING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS NEAR 70
IN A LOT OF PLACES TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. I WOULDN/T BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD-
FREE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT DOESN/T COME THROUGH
AS FAST AS THE NAM IS SHOWING.

WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
FROM NW-SE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF AS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE
OVERAMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND THEN MERGES
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WITH THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
FOR THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTS IN A MONSTER COASTAL STORM
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND BLINDING SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS BEING
DISCOUNTED.

INSTEAD...WE GO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME. A BRIEF COLD SHOT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN FOR THE THE OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WE ARE PLAYING THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED-SAT
PERIOD.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE MIDWEEK FORECAST...AS MORE
AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN A MORE INTERESTING
SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE GOING...BUT NOT LIKELY TO THE
EXTREME AS THE 12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. LEFTOVER BKN ALTOCUMULUS AROUND 8000 FT THROUGH 12Z.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
INLAND.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY SCA
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORESEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH A CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN SUBSIDE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...EKSTER/STRAUSS
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 080546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...AND HEADING S/E. THE RUC13 850 RH SEEMS TO DEPICT
THIS BEST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS APPEARS A TAD SLOW. THESE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WARM
FRONT...APPROACHING FROM THE W. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF ALBANY...WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER S AND E...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
MORE BREAKS WILL ALSO OCCUR. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR
N/W AREAS...AND WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE WIND
WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW 40.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.

AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET.  THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MONRING WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU
TAF SITES SOMETIME AROUND 14Z. THE CLOUD DECK AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS FOR KALB WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS INITIALLY...THEN TEND TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LATER IN THE MORNING THEY WILL SWITCH TO WEST AT UNDER 10 KTS...TEHN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD SUNSET. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO BE
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...AND CALM
TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 080227
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
927 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR
MINIMUMS OR WILL BE SHORTLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND WINDS
INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISC...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH SNE LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA WITH MAIN EFFECT TO BRING A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING SE US MID LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  IT
WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND WHICH
BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.  TEMPS
WERE A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF.

IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A COUPLE
OF FANTASTIC NOVEMBER DAYS FEATURING DRY MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE A LITTLE BIT UNSURE OF THE EXACT
TIMING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS NEAR 70
IN A LOT OF PLACES TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. I WOULDN/T BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD-
FREE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT DOESN/T COME THROUGH
AS FAST AS THE NAM IS SHOWING.

WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
FROM NW-SE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF AS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE
OVERAMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND THEN MERGES
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WITH THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
FOR THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTS IN A MONSTER COASTAL STORM
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND BLINDING SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS BEING
DISCOUNTED.

INSTEAD...WE GO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME. A BRIEF COLD SHOT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN FOR THE THE OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WE ARE PLAYING THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED-SAT
PERIOD.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE MIDWEEK FORECAST...AS MORE
AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN A MORE INTERESTING
SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE GOING...BUT NOT LIKELY TO THE
EXTREME AS THE 12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROB OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR FOG CT VLY. LOW PROB LLWS COASTAL
TERMINALS AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND CAPE COD BAY.

A PERIOD OF G25 KT LIKELY AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN BUT
SHOULD SEE A FEW G25 KT. WE TRIMMED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO NORMAL
HIGH BIAS IN SW FLOW EVENTS.

SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT.
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY SCA
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORESEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH A CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN SUBSIDE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/BELK
NEAR TERM...KJC/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KALY 080134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
834 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...AND HEADING S/E. THE RUC13 850 RH SEEMS TO DEPICT
THIS BEST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS APPEARS A TAD SLOW. THESE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WARM
FRONT...APPROACHING FROM THE W. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF ALBANY...WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER S AND E...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
MORE BREAKS WILL ALSO OCCUR. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR
N/W AREAS...AND WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE WIND
WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW 40.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.

AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET.  THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY...AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID MID ATLANTIC COAST.

KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME IFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE...DEPENDING ON IF VFR
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT. WINDS AT KGFL SHOULD REMAIN FROM A LIGHT
SE TO S DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW
TO W SUN MORNING AT 5-10 KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE
WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

KALB...EXPECT VFR THROUGH 00Z/MON. WINDS AT KALB WILL REMAIN FROM
THE S AT 8-12 KT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SUN MORNING AT 8-12 KT...DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO THE
SW TO S BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE
FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS AT KPOU WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN WIL BECOME W TO NW AT 8-12 KT SUN MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN
MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS

000
FXUS61 KALY 072355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.

AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET.  THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY...AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID MID ATLANTIC COAST.

KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME IFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE...DEPENDING ON IF VFR
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT. WINDS AT KGFL SHOULD REMAIN FROM A LIGHT
SE TO S DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW
TO W SUN MORNING AT 5-10 KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE
WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

KALB...EXPECT VFR THROUGH 00Z/MON. WINDS AT KALB WILL REMAIN FROM
THE S AT 8-12 KT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SUN MORNING AT 8-12 KT...DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO THE
SW TO S BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE
FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS AT KPOU WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN WIL BECOME W TO NW AT 8-12 KT SUN MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN
MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 072053
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH SNE LATE TONIGHT.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS
WILL BE A DRY FROPA WITH MAIN EFFECT TO BRING A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED...WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING SE US MID LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  IT
WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND WHICH
BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.  TEMPS
WERE A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF.

IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A COUPLE
OF FANTASTIC NOVEMBER DAYS FEATURING DRY MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE A LITTLE BIT UNSURE OF THE EXACT
TIMING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS NEAR 70
IN A LOT OF PLACES TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. I WOULDN/T BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD-
FREE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT DOESN/T COME THROUGH
AS FAST AS THE NAM IS SHOWING.

WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
FROM NW-SE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF AS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE
OVERAMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND THEN MERGES
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WITH THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
FOR THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTS IN A MONSTER COASTAL STORM
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND BLINDING SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS BEING
DISCOUNTED.

INSTEAD...WE GO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME. A BRIEF COLD SHOT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN FOR THE THE OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WE ARE PLAYING THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED-SAT
PERIOD.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE MIDWEEK FORECAST...AS MORE
AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN A MORE INTERESTING
SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE GOING...BUT NOT LIKELY TO THE
EXTREME AS THE 12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR.  LOW PROB OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR FOG CT VLY.  LOW PROB
LLWS COASTAL TERMINALS AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE ISSUED SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXCEPT BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND CAPE COD BAY.  A PERIOD OF G25 KT
LIKELY AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.  LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN BUT SHOULD
SEE A FEW G25 KT.  WE TRIMMED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO NORMAL HIGH
BIAS IN SW FLOW EVENTS.

SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT.
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY SCA
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORESEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH A CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN SUBSIDE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ232>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/MLE
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KALY 072038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.

AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET.  THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AC DECK SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE SKIRTS BY
GFL...BUT EXPECTING CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AT INCREASINGLY LOWER
LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...SO HAVE GONE BKN050-060 BY 04Z
AT ALL AIRPORTS.  BUT ALSO THINK MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SC BELOW 3000 FEET.  HAVE GONE WITH AN MVFR
CIG AT GFL AND ALB AFT 10Z.

SLGT WAA AND A FEW CLOUD BREAKS COULD FORM SOME LIGHT WAA FOG WHICH
MAY GO MVFR...XCP HAVE STAYED 6SM AT ALB...ALL AFT 04Z.  GFL WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY WORSE VSBY CATEGORY GIVEN THE PAPER
MILL AND NEARLY CALM WIND.  EXPECTING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS SEVERELY LACKING.  STILL
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME TO SEE A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES EVOLVE AT GFL AND
ALB TOWARD DAYBREAK.

2000-FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CARRYING IN THE MOISTURE THIS EVENING
ARE INTO WIND SHEAR CRITERIA.  THUS...HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF 35
KNOTS AT ALL THE AIRPORTS FROM 22Z TO 04Z...THEN FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY LESSENS IN WEAKENING ENVIRONMENT.  SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE NO MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 071936
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH SNE LATE TONIGHT.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS
WILL BE A DRY FROPA WITH MAIN EFFECT TO BRING A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED...WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING SE US MID LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  IT
WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND WHICH
BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.  TEMPS
WERE A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE.

PROBLEMS START TO ARISE AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND GGEM SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION HAS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING...WILL STAY THE COURSE. THE REMNANTS OF
IDA MAY BE A FACTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR.  LOW PROB OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR FOG CT VLY.  LOW PROB
LLWS COASTAL TERMINALS AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING WED...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE ISSUED SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXCEPT BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND CAPE COD BAY.  A PERIOD OF G25 KT
LIKELY AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.  LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN BUT SHOULD
SEE A FEW G25 KT.  WE TRIMMED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO NORMAL HIGH
BIAS IN SW FLOW EVENTS.

SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT.
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
      FOR ANZ232>235-237-250-251-254>256.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/BELK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK
MARINE...KJC/BELK

000
FXUS61 KALY 071746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.

AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.

DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO COOL THINGS OFF.

EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS WELL
TO OUR EAST...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PCPN WILL END...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS...RATHER THAN CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.

WILL KEEP A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40
TO 50 WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30...THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...AND THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AC DECK SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE SKIRTS BY
GFL...BUT EXPECTING CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AT INCREASINGLY LOWER
LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...SO HAVE GONE BKN050-060 BY 04Z
AT ALL AIRPORTS.  BUT ALSO THINK MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SC BELOW 3000 FEET.  HAVE GONE WITH AN MVFR
CIG AT GFL AND ALB AFT 10Z.

SLGT WAA AND A FEW CLOUD BREAKS COULD FORM SOME LIGHT WAA FOG WHICH
MAY GO MVFR...XCP HAVE STAYED 6SM AT ALB...ALL AFT 04Z.  GFL WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY WORSE VSBY CATEGORY GIVEN THE PAPER
MILL AND NEARLY CALM WIND.  EXPECTING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS SEVERELY LACKING.  STILL
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME TO SEE A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES EVOLVE AT GFL AND
ALB TOWARD DAYBREAK.

2000-FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CARRYING IN THE MOISTURE THIS EVENING
ARE INTO WIND SHEAR CRITERIA.  THUS...HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF 35
KNOTS AT ALL THE AIRPORTS FROM 22Z TO 04Z...THEN FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY LESSENS IN WEAKENING ENVIRONMENT.  SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE NO MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$

AVIATION...ELH

000
FXUS61 KBOX 071518
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...
POSSIBLY YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE IN DEVELOPING WAA
PATTERN...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY. SW FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS
SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST. TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE.

PROBLEMS START TO ARISE AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND GGEM SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION HAS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING...WILL STAY THE COURSE. THE REMNANTS OF
IDA MAY BE A FACTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AS A SW
40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORNING DRY COLD FROPA WITH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING WED...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LATEST BUOYS STILL SHOW 5-7 FT SEAS OVER WATERS EAST AND SE
OF ACK. WNA/SWAN INDICATE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON
SO WE WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE. WINDS BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER NEARSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...A 35-45 KT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENT VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET IN SPOTS. SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS.

SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A LEFTOVER
SCA FOR 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCA 5 FT SEAS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. THEN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...KJC/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/BELK/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 071207
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...
POSSIBLY YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WAS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS NOW WELL EAST OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE.

PROBLEMS START TO ARISE AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND GGEM SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION HAS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING...WILL STAY THE COURSE. THE REMNANTS OF
IDA MAY BE A FACTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AS A SW
40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORNING DRY COLD FROPA WITH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING WED...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE EASTERN WATERS FOR
SEAS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...A 35-45 KT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENT VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET IN SPOTS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MARGINAL SCA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW SO THE DAY SHIFT CAN RE-ASSESS AND SINCE
THERE ARE STILL LEFTOVER HEADLINES FOR ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THE
MARITIME LOW.

SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A LEFTOVER
SCA FOR 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCA 5 FT SEAS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. THEN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/BELK
MARINE...STRAUSS/BELK

000
FXUS61 KALY 071139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.

AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.

DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO COOL THINGS OFF.

EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS WELL
TO OUR EAST...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PCPN WILL END...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS...RATHER THAN CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.

WILL KEEP A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40
TO 50 WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30...THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...AND THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ASIDE FROM A LITTLE MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH 13Z...NO AVIATION
WEATHER RELATED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR A
SOUTHERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY AFTERNOON...UNRESTRICTED
VISIBLITY AND PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

BY THE OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MVFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT KGFL...POSSIBLY GOING DOWN TO IFR FOG AT TIMES. LITTLE
OR NO FOG IS EXPECTED AT THE TWO OTHER TERMINALS. A SOUTH WIND WILL
DIMINISH AT KPOU/KGFL BUT WILL PERSIST AROUND 6KTS AT KALB.


OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE...MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHRAS.
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KALY 070913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.

AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.

DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO COOL THINGS OFF.

EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS WELL
TO OUR EAST...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PCPN WILL END...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS...RATHER THAN CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.

WILL KEEP A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40
TO 50 WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30...THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...AND THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KGFL WHERE MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME  SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 070910
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...
POSSIBLY YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WAS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISPERSE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILTER
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE.

PROBLEMS START TO ARISE AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND GGEM SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION HAS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING...WILL STAY THE COURSE. THE REMNANTS OF
IDA MAY BE A FACTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AS A SW
40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORNING DRY COLD FROPA WITH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING WED...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE EASTERN WATERS FOR
SEAS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 5 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...A 35-45 KT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENT VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET IN SPOTS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MARGINAL SCA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW SO THE DAY SHIFT CAN RE-ASSESS AND SINCE
THERE ARE STILL LEFTOVER HEADLINES FOR ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THE
MARITIME LOW.

SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A LEFTOVER
SCA FOR 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCA 5 FT SEAS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. THEN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/BELK
MARINE...STRAUSS/BELK

000
FXUS61 KALY 070800
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.

AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.

DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS BRINGING A CHC OF
PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. TO START THE PERIOD...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONTINUITY AMONG
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. ECMWF
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
MOVING PRECIP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY NIGHT...DRYING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE 2KFT...AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BEGINNING
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.5KFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAX TEMPS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...QUICKLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROM THERE...MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...DECREASING TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW
30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KGFL WHERE MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME  SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KALY 070526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT A LITTLE QUICKER AS LATEST SAT PICS SHOW AREA OF STRATO
CU SHRINKING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES AS H8 TEMPS -5
TO -8 C ACRS FA THIS EVENING AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND A FRESH LIGHT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS MOST OF THE FA.

THE FOLLOWING IS FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 429 PM EST...
WALL OF CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME BREAKS AND PATCHES OF CLEAR SKY WEST AND
UPWIND OF THE REGION WHICH ARE LIKELY TO COME ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE MIN
TEMPERATURES...BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS
OBSERVED DEWPOINTS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING OR OVER
NIGHT AS NOTHING INDICATED ON ANY OBS UPSTREAM.

USED ADJUSTED MET/MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS WITH SOME SMOOTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AND NCEP ANALYSIS INDICATE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS AND MET/MOS FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES. TIME SERIES PROFILE INDICATES WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SATURDAY...BUT EVEN IF IT PANS OUT WE WOULD STILL GET
FILTERED SUN. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TO THE LOW 50S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 8 TO 12 MPH.

SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. IT WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S.

WITH A WARMER START...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COOLER REGIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO THE LOW 60S IN THE HUDSON
AND LOWER HOUSATONIC RIVER VALLEYS.

IT WILL CONTINUE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS BRINGING A CHC OF
PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. TO START THE PERIOD...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONTINUITY AMONG
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. ECMWF
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
MOVING PRECIP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY NIGHT...DRYING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE 2KFT...AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BEGINNING
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.5KFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAX TEMPS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...QUICKLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROM THERE...MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...DECREASING TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW
30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KGFL WHERE MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME  SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES RH
VALUES WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 MPH. UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE RH WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX ACROSS THE REGION IS LESS
THAN 200.

THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON ENDS TODAY. THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED...ALONG
WITH THE TABULAR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS (FWF) AND THE FIRE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS (FWM). THE FIRE WEATHER GRAPHICAL FORECASTS
AND IMAGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AND MAY BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
SITE. SPOT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THE LAST EVENT BROUGHT VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION WHICH CAUSED
A FEW RIVERS TO STOP RECEDING. HOWEVER THEY WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE
LATER TODAY...AND DEFINITELY DO SO AS THINGS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES GO WELL BELOW FREEZING. SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TO MELT
SATURDAY...BUT WHATEVER DOES IS LIKELY TO JUST SEEP INTO THE GROUND
WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TODAY...THE WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/11
SHORT TERM...RCK
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK