[top]
000
FXUS61 KGYX 232146 CCA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
446 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN BRIEFLY FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST THURSDAY SPAWNING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INVERSION HAS HELD FIRM THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE INVERSION
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT IS LOWERING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WOULD
EXPECT THAT ALL ZONES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO THE
MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAIN FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW. BASED ON THIS...WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND SOUTHERN MAINE...AS THE BEST LIFT STAYS CLOSE TO THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE COLUMN JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION IS VERY DRY.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND GRADUATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COAST. THE COLUMN APPEARS TO BE
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
THE MOUNTAINS. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TONIGHT GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...AND LOWS WERE BASED ON A MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH DURING TUESDAY MORNING.
AGAIN...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT NEAR THE COAST...AS THE
BEST MID LEVEL LIFT PARALLELS THE COAST. ALL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MID COAST AND EAST AS
THE LOW EXITS. WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO THIS.
THE 1200 UTC GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE
MID LEVEL SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...AS DRYING BEHIND THE LOW DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG. FOR
THAT REASON...WILL BE A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE CLEARING.
WITH CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST WIND...NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TUESDAY...AND HIGHS WERE BASED ON A MOS BLEND...THEN
DROPPED THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEARING. AGAIN...
THE 1200 UTC GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING...BRINGING
MUCH DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOWN FROM QUEBEC. NOT SURE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SO EASY TO REMOVE FROM UNDER THE INVERSION IN
PLACE. THIS COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE NIGHT TO OCCUR. AS SUCH...THE
1200 UTC GFS MOS NUMBERS APPEARS TOO COLD...AND A BLEND WAS USED
FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WED NIGHT THE 500 RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
INCREASE. THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS UP AND EXPECT ONLY LOCATIONS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY FLOW ALOFT COMES OUT OF THE SW AS 500 LOW DROPS INTO
THE MIDWEST. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN HOWEVER I MAY BE A BIT
PESSIMISTIC. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AND CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 50S SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY THE FORECAST STARTS TO GET A BIT FUZZY. ALL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST HOWEVER THE
PLACEMENT AND TRACK ARE IN DOUBT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A GALE CENTER
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE
FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COLD AIR STARTS TO GET PULLED INTO
THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS CERTAINLY PSBL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...CEILINGS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR 3000
FEET AT THE INVERSION HOLDS IN PLACE AND THE BREAKS OVER THE OCEAN
HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS. THE EXCEPTION HERE IS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHICH IS ABOVE THE INVERSION IN PLACE.
THE SURFACE WAVE IS DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH...CEILINGS WILL
STEADILY LOWER THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AFTER 0600 UTC FOR ALL TERMINALS
(WITH KLEB GOING DOWN LAST). AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING THE RAIN
TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OBSCURE VISIBILITY TO MVFR/IFR EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS KPSM.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE SURFACE LOW
MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW...THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TRAP MOISTURE UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 1800
UTC (WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS AT KPWM/KPSM).
AFTER THE LOW PASSES TUESDAY EVENING...MODEL DIVERGE ON JUST HOW
FAST THE MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION GETS MIXED OUT. SINCE THE
PUSH OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD COME LATER AT NIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BETWEEN 0300
UTC AND 0900 UTC WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...
EXPECT VFR FOR WED AND THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
IFR/LIFR FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS ARE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW...THE SURFACE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO ALL WATERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT IOSN3 BETWEEN
0600 UTC AND 1200 UTC TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE A GALE
WARNING THERE. MODELS TEND TO UNDERFORECAST NORTHEAST WINDS IN
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION...SO THAT ZONE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
SEAS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RESPOND TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST
FETCH...AND ALL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD SEE SMALL CRAFT SEAS BEFORE
0300 UTC TUESDAY. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE BAYS AS WELL...BUT
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE SURFACE LOW
MAKES IT CLOSEST PASS TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ALL WATERS SHOULD
BE EXPERIENCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AS THE GRADIENT CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
THIS. WILL INCLUDE 30 KNOT GUSTS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. THE
NORTHEAST FETCH SHOULD BRING THE BAYS TO SMALL CRAFT
SEAS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER EDGES.
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AFTER 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED AS SEAS SHOULD BE BE NEARLY FULLY
DEVELOPED FOR THE FETCH...AND MAY TAKE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET.
LONG TERM...
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING WED THEN QUIET ON THE WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN GALES ARE POSSIBLE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. GALE/SCA
MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS SYSTEM DEPARTS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 232112
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
412 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TOWARD
THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE A FACTOR TONIGHT IN THE CLEAR AREAS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY COOL
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL PRESENT. TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA COVERED BY STRATOCU. EXPECT THE
STRATOCU TO MAINTAIN IN THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. BY MORNING...MOST ZONES WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF ZONE 1 SHOULD HAVE THE STRATUS AND STRATOCU DECKS. AS
A RESULT...LEFT LOWS HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING IN ALL ZONES EXPECT
ZONE 1 WHERE SOME UPPER TEENS MAY OCCUR AGAIN. TUESDAY LOOKS
GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA EXCEPT POSSIBLY ZONE 1 AND NORTHERN
ZONE 2 WHERE SOME SUN MAY BREAK THROUGH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BRING A CHC OF RAIN TO MID-COAST AND
DOWNEAST AREAS TUES WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
IN HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. A FEW TENTHS OF RAIN LOOK
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME
ACROSS THE FA TUES WITH EXCEPT PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN
ZONES 2 AND 6. ONE ITEM OF INTEREST WAS THE 25/12Z GGEMS RUN
SHOWING A NORLUN TYPE STRUCTURE FOR MID-COAST ON TUES AND A MUCH
DEEPER LOW THAN GFS/NAM/ECMWF. HAVE DISCOUNTED GGEMS AT THIS POINT
AS AN OUTLIER
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING SHOWER CHANCES DOWNEAST.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE MARITIMES AND ANOTHER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROF EXTENDING WEST
FROM THE LOW EAST OF THE MARITIMES COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GREAT LAKES LOW TRANSFERS
ENERGY TO INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WHILE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
COASTAL LOW LIFTS TOWARD MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN FIRST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY WORKING ITS WAY UP THE COAST AND SPREADING
RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STORM SYSTEM IN THE
AREA BUT THE PATHS ON BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT.
THEY BOTH HAVE THE STORM SYSTEM PHASING WITH PORTIONS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET...AND BOTH HAVE RATHER DEEP LOW PRESSURES. WITH
THAT HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR
FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASING THE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THAT AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN PRECIP TYPE...WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL KEEP
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE DOWNEAST AREAS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT A LITTLE BIT WHILE AREAS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA COULD STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD BE DRY WITH
CLOUDS HANGING ON TOUGH IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. USED
GMOS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD AND ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR IN NORTH MOST OF TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS FROM HUL AND
MLT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS CAR
AND PQI LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TOWARDS BHB AND COASTAL
REGIONS TOWARD IFR IN RAIN DURING TUES. BGR SHOULD STAY JUST
ABOVE IFR DURING TUES. THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE...EXCEPT THE FAR
NW...WILL HAVE MVFR CEILINGS MOST OF TUES. THE FAR NW SHOULD BE VFR
AFTER SOME EARLY DAY MVFR.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DOWNEAST EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR...WITH OCCASIONAL
LIFR...CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE COAST WILL GENERATE
INCREASING SEAS AND WINDS DURING TUES. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
STARTING AT 6Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGER WAVES
AND HIGHER WINDS SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE WATERS DURING TUES.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS PERSISTING
WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM: WITH THE STORM SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE UP THE COAST IN
THE LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/NORCROSS
000
FXUS61 KGYX 232012
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
312 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INVERSION HAS HELD FIRM THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE INVERSION
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT IS LOWERING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WOULD
EXPECT THAT ALL ZONES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY DUE TO THE
MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION.
STARTING TO SEE THE RAIN FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW. BASED ON THIS...WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND SOUTHERN MAINE...AS THE BEST LIFT STAYS CLOSE TO THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP CUTOFF TO THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE COLUMN JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION IS VERY DRY.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND GRADUATE RAIN CHANCES TO THE COAST. THE COLUMN APPEARS TO BE
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
THE MOUNTAINS. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
TONIGHT GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...AND LOWS WERE BASED ON A MOS
BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH DURING TUESDAY MORNING.
AGAIN...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT NEAR THE COAST...AS THE
BEST MID LEVEL LIFT PARALLELS THE COAST. ALL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MID COAST AND EAST AS
THE LOW EXITS. WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO THIS.
THE 1200 UTC GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE
MID LEVEL SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE...AS DRYING BEHIND THE LOW DOES NOT LOOK THAT STRONG. FOR
THAT REASON...EVEN ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
WITH CLOUDS AND A NORTHEAST WIND...NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TUESDAY...AND HIGHS WERE BASED ON A MOS BLEND...THEN
DROP THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CLEARING. AGAIN...
THE 1200 UTC GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CLEARING...BRINGING
MUCH DRIER AIR WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOWN FROM QUEBEC. NOT SURE THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SO EASY TO REMOVE FROM UNDER THE INVERSION IN
PLACE. THIS COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE NIGHT TO OCCUR. AS SUCH...THE
1200 UTC GFS MOS NUMBERS APPEARS TOO COLD...AND A BLEND WAS USED
FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING A 500 RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WED NIGHT THE 500 RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING CLOUDS TO
INCREASE. THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS UP AND EXPECT ONLY LOCATIONS TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY FLOW ALOFT COMES OUT OF THE SW AS 500 LOW DROPS INTO
THE MIDWEST. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN HOWEVER I MAY BE A BIT
PESSIMISTIC. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AND CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 50S SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH.
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPS REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY THE FOECAST STARTS TO GET A BIT FUZZY. ALL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST HOWEVER THE
PLACEMENT AND TRACK ARE IN DOUBT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A GALE CENTER
WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE
FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY COLD AIR STARTS TO GET PULLED INTO
THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW OR A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS CERTAINLY PSBL IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...CEILINGS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR 3000
FEET AT THE INVERSION HOLDS IN PLACE AND THE BREAKS OVER THE OCEAN
HAVE BECOME LESS NUMEROUS. THE EXCEPTION HERE IS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
WHICH IS ABOVE THE INVERSION IN PLACE.
THE SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH...CEILINGS WILL
STEADILY LOWER THROUGH MVFR TO IFR AFTER 0600 UTC FOR ALL
TERMINALS (WITH KLEB GOING DOWN LAST). AT THIS POINT...NOT
EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO OBSCURE VISIBILITY TO
MVFR/IFR EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS KPSM.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE SURFACE LOW
MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE LOW...THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TRAP MOISTURE UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION...AND
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 1800
UTC (WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS AT KPWM/KPSM).
AFTER THE LOW PASSES TUESDAY EVENING...MODEL DIVERGE ON JUST HOW
FAST THE MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION GETS MIXED OUT. SINCE THE
PUSH OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE LOW SHOULD COME LATER AT NIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BETWEEN 0300
UTC AND 0900 UTC WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...
EXPECT VFR FOR WED AND THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO
IFR/LIFR FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS ARE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT WITH THE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE LOW...THE SURFACE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ENOUGH TO BRING SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO ALL WATERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS AT IOSN3 BETWEEN
0600 UTC AND 1200 UTC TUESDAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE A GALE
WARNING THERE. MODELS TEND TO UNDERFORECAST NORTHEAST WINDS IN
THIS TYPE OF SITUATION...SO THAT ZONE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
SEAS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO RESPOND TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST
FETCH...AND ALL OCEAN WATERS SHOULD SEE SMALL CRAFT SEAS BEFORE
0300 UTC TUESDAY. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE BAYS AS WELL...BUT
IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS
HAPPENS.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE SURFACE LOW
MAKES IT CLOSEST PASS TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...ALL WATERS SHOULD
BE EXPERIENCING SMALL CRAFT WINDS AS THE GRADIENT CERTAINLY SUPPORTS
THIS. WILL INCLUDE 30 KNOT GUSTS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AS WELL. THE
NORTHEAST FETCH SHOULD BRING THE BAYS TO SMALL CRAFT SEAS...ESPECIALLY
ON THE OUTER EDGES.
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES...WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS AFTER 0600 UTC WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED AS SEAS SHOULD BE BE NEARLY FULLY
DEVELOPED FOR THE FETCH...AND MAY TAKE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET.
LONG TERM...
SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING WED THEN QUITE ON THE WATERS UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN GALES ARE POSSIBLE WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. GALE/SCA
MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS SYSTEM DEPARTS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
000
FXUS61 KGYX 231453
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AN EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIPS OFFSHORE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
ANOTHER MID ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY NIGHT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE THE EXTENT
OF THE CLOUDS.
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SHEET OF STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS MOVING
NORTHWEST...AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION SHOWN ON
THE 1200 UTC GYX SOUNDING. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED THE
INVERSION CLOSE TO 2500 FEET...AND INTERESTINGLY THE CLOUDS ARE
GETTING TO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...BUT ARE NOT MAKING IT TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE VISIBLE IMAGES ALSO SHOWS BREAKS OVER THE OCEAN...WHERE IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH THE INVERSION IS NOT AS STRONG. EXTRAPOLATION
WOULD BRING THESE BREAKS TO THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL 0000 UTC/0600 UTC MESOSCALE MODELS ALSO SHOW
THIS TREND. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE MAY BE BREAKS NEAR THE
COAST...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER WAS LOWERED THERE.
ALSO...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY BE ABLE TO ESCAPE
THE MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION (AS THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE ABOVE
THE INVERSION). MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S...SO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS POSSIBLE THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.
WATCHING MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
WEAK SURFACE WAVE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MOST
OF THIS WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED A
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY COULD
BE CLIPPED BY THIS ACTIVITY.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S. BASED ON THE CLOUD OVER IN PLACE...NUDGED DOWN HIGHS FOR ALL
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD INCREASED LOW CLOUDS WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TOUGH CALL ON TIMING OF THE MOISTURE EXITING OUR REGION FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. NAM HOLDS ONTO CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE LONGER
THAN THE GFS TUESDAY NIGHT. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING...THEN ENDING ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR NEXT COASTAL SYSTEM UNTIL THURSDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO MODEL SUGGESTS AN INLAND TRACK ACROSS NH WITH
THIS ONE. THIS WILL KEEP THE PCPN MAINLY IN THE LIQUID FORM UNTIL
ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT FORMS BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER...ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
YET ANOTHER INLAND STORM PASSES WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE
MIDWEEK (NEXT WEEK) HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...CEILINGS ARE HOVERING AROUND
3000 FEET AT MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGES
SHOW BREAKS OVER THE OCEAN...REACHING NEAR THE COAST. THE 1200 GYX
SOUNDING SHOWS A TOP INVERSION LEVEL OF CLOSE TO 3200 FEET...BUT
THIS MAY NOT BE INDICATIVE OFF WHAT IS OCCURRING OVER THE OCEAN.
MOST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE BREAKS OVER THE OCEAN MAKING TO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH ALL TERMINALS WILL HOVER AT THE MVFR/VFR BREAK POINT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE
DUE TO CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME FOG/DRIZZLE
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOWER FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TIME WITH APPROACH OF NEXT COASTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NOVA
SCOTIA AND A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
STARTING TO SEE GUSTS NEAR SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT IOSN3...AND THIS
MAY NECESSITATE MOVING UP THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR ANZ154 IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE...THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE WEAK WAVE
MOVES UP ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS. THIS WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
OVER THE OCEAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 230759
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
259 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. EXPECT THIS RIDGE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. CURRENTLY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS. THIS AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND AS CONVERGENCE
ZONE DEVELOPS ALONG COAST AS OFF-SHORE LOW MOVES TO NORTH. HAVE
USED THE GEM TO POPULATE SKY GRIDS SINCE IT CURRENTLY HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STAY WELL TO
SOUTHEAST SO WILL CONFINE HIGHEST POPS TO SOUTH. HAVE USE A BLEND
OF THE NAM...GFS AND SREF TO POPULATE POP GRIDS. EXPECT WINDS TO
REMAIN LIGHT WITH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE. WILL USE GMOS FOR WIND
GRIDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE
SO WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT IN CLOSE NEAR TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL BE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY. RAIN FROM
THE SYSTEM MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRUSH THE DOWNEAST COAST ON
TUESDAY. FURTHER NORTH...RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AND RIDGING WILL RETURN LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY
THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
THEN TRACK NORTH BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW RAIN
TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LIFTS
AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE COAST MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST ON TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS BRING MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 TO INITIALIZE
WIND GRIDS. WILL INCREASE SPEED A FEW KNOTS LATER TODAY IN
NORTHERLY FLOW...OTHERWISE STAYING WITH MODEL BLEND. FOR WAVES:
HAVE POPULATED GRIDS WITH WNA/4. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
IN INTRA-COASTAL ZONE BUT WAVE MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE OFF COAST.
WILL START GENERIC SCA AT 06Z TONIGHT WILL NEED ONLY FOR SEAS BUT
WILL KEEP GENERIC SINCE WINDS COME UP LATER TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM:
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE MAY BRING SCA WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BRING A RETURN OF HIGHER
WINDS AND CHANCE FOR AN SCA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER
000
FXUS61 KGYX 230623
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
123 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AN EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A MID ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIPS OFFSHORE ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
ANOTHER MID ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY NIGHT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
THEN MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW CLOUDS INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTION THANKS TO
AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. NORTHERN AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS WILL SEE
SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN THEIR INCREASE OVER THOSE AREAS.
DAYTIME HIGHS STILL SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
USED BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS AND BLEND OF MAV/CURRENT FORECAST FOR POPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD YIELD INCREASED LOW CLOUDS WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TOUGH CALL ON TIMING OF THE MOISTURE EXITING OUR REGION FROM THE
OFFSHORE LOW. NAM HOLDS ONTO CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE LONGER
THAN THE GFS TUESDAY NIGHT. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...KEEPING CHANCE
POPS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EVENING...THEN ENDING ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HELD OFF ON ANY POPS FOR NEXT COASTAL SYSTEM UNTIL THURSDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO MODEL SUGGESTS AN INLAND TRACK ACROSS NH WITH
THIS ONE. THIS WILL KEEP THE PCPN MAINLY IN THE LIQUID FORM UNTIL
ENOUGHT COLD AIR CAN WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENT FORMS BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER...ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
YET ANOTHER INLAND STORM PASSES WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE
MIDWEEK (NEXT WEEK) HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL
SECTIONS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR DUE TO CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE DUE TO CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS WELL
AS SOME FOG/DRIZZLE.
LONG TERM...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. CELINGS AND VSBYS LOWER FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL TIME WITH APPROACH OF NEXT COASTAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY. SCA CONDITIONS DUE
TO SEAS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 230158
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
858 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING AROUND THE SFC HIGH FROM NEW
BRUNSWICK AND NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC OVRNGT...BUT FORECAST LOW TEMPS
MOST LOW LYING AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 DEG LOWER THAN
MODEL PREDICTED SFC DEW/FROST POINTS LATE TNGT. WITH ONLY WEAKLY
CORRESPONDING NEGATIVE HYDRO-LAPSE RATES XPCTD TO PROGGED
CORRESPONDING 925 MB DEW/FROST POINTS THAT ARE CLOSELY MATCHING
FORECAST LOW TEMPS...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG OVR THE FA N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
OTHERWISE...FCST LOWS BASED OFF A 10C RADIATION SFC-925 MB
INVERSION IN COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT BLENDED UPWARD A BIT
WITH GEMS AND MOS GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN SOME UPPER TEENS IN
GRIDS. WITH OLD TOWN HAVING DROPPED TO 25F YESTERDAY...DON`T SEE
WHY ANOTHER 4 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER IS NOT POSSIBLE WITH NO SC
PRESENT TO TRAP BOUNDARY LYR WARMTH. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE MONDAY EXCEPT SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO MID-COAST LATER
IN THE DAY. LOOKING FOR THE SHALLOW MORNING INVERSION TO BE
ELIMINATED WITH MORNING HEATING AND TEMPS TO RECOVER TO READINGS A
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN SUNDAY WITH WAA OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS MAINE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST LATE. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST
EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN CLIPPING
DOWNEAST AREAS PARTICULARLY THE COAST. THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A SHARP
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT NORTH OF DOWNEAST AREAS. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTHERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING DOWNEAST. THE REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WE SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AND IT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
THE STORM SYSTEM COMING ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA.
IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE THIS STORM
TAPPING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND PHASING UP BRINGING SOME WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING
TO WATCH AND SEE IF THIS TREND PERSISTS ON LATER MODEL RUNS. AGAIN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM IS VERY IMPORTANT IN THE PRECIP TYPE FOR
THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT BEING SAID DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
SITUATION HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND SOME
AREAS DOWNEAST COULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THE THE POPS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH ON SUNDAY AND STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIP ON SUNDAY. AS FOR THE TEMPS HAVE USED GMOS AND
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT IFR WITH PATCHY RVR VLY FOG
LATE TNGT AT ONE OR MORE OF OUR TAF SITES.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THURSDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A STORM MOVING UP THE US COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE
MONDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...WALKER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/NORCROSS
000
FXUS61 KGYX 230048 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
748 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
GULF OF MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM
EASTERN QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AND BEING NUDGED ENE BY THE COASTAL LOW NOW
ORGANIZING OVER SOUTH GEORGIA. STRATUS LOCATED ON THE EDGE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WAS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THREATENING TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY APPROACH THE SEACOAST OF
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOWS A BIT
HIGHER THAN THEY WOULD BE OTHERWISE. OTHER AREAS HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. RADIATION FOG WILL FORM SHORTLY ALONG THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT
LOWS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE STRATUS AND FOG. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS SPREAD FURTHER INLAND IN INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS BY AFTERNOON CONFINED TO AREAS FAR
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. SHOULD BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE ONSHORE BREEZE AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE
NOVEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A
BIT MORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND LESS CONFIDENCE ON
HOW THE SECOND WILL UNFOLD LATE THIS WEEK.
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO MASS FIELDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOP ON THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...AND TRACK SHOULD BE NEAR THE BENCHMARK.
THE 1200 UTC NAM BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF NORTH ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF OFFSHORE (CLOSE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE).
BASED ON THE ABOVE...LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR PLACEMENT
OF QPF. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTH OF THIS...THE AIRMASS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW. THE COLUMN IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
IN JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME
STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED FOR
LOWS.
SAME SITUATION FOR TUESDAY...USING THE SAME RATIONALE. THIS PLACES
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT
NEAR THE COAST MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID COAST. AT THIS POINT...THE MOS
BLEND APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR ALL AREAS...AND THESE
NUMBERS WERE NUDGED DOWN.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THIS...THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD IN JUST HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR MAY WAIT UNTIL
LATE AT NIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM TIMING FOR
CLEARING. THE TIMING DIFFERENCE IS IMPORTANT FOR LOWS...AS THERE
IS AS MUCH AS A 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN LOWS BETWEEN MOS VALUES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MUCH COLDER GFS MOS IS TOO
COLD AND LOWS WERE BASED MORE CLOSELY ON THE WARMER NAM MOS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM EASTERN QUEBEC SHOULD BRING
CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING (AT THE LATEST). SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE EXITING AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY.
THE 1200 UTC GFS IS SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS
YET...BUT MAY HAVE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY TO ACCOUNT. AFTER THIS...MID RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE 1200 UTC ECMWF IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 1200 UTC GFS IN THE
DETAILS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH ARE NOW KEYING
DEVELOPMENT ON THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 1200
UTC GFS SHIFTS THE FIRST (AND PERHAPS BOGUS?) SHORT WAVE OUT AND
BOTH MODELS DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO MOISTEN AND WARM
THE COLUMN TO KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DIFFERS BETWEEN MODELS...WITH
THE 1200 UTC GFS MUCH HEAVIER WITH REGARD TO QPF...WITH THE ECMWF
ABOUT HALF OF THE 3+ INCHES SHOWN BY THE GFS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.
THIS SEEMS TO BE DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSING ON A ZONE OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION ON THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXED LAYER FOR MORE THAN THAT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...COLD AIR IS AVAILABLE...AND THE
PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE IT
ENDS. WOULD EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...BUT
ELSEWHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z MONDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR
AROUND 0600 UTC FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KAUG WHICH WILL REMAIN VFR.
DECREASING TO IFR AROUND 09-10Z AT KPWM/KPSM/KCON WITH LIFR
EXPECTED AT KLEB IN FOG AND STRATUS.
LONG TERM...WOULD EXPECT MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
LOWERING INVERSION. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR FOR CEILINGS
AFTER ABOUT 0600 UTC TUESDAY (SOONER NEAR THE COAST...A BIT LATER
AT KCON AND KLEB). VISIBILITY IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN...AS IT
DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD WITH AN OFFSHORE WAVE
GETS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSM AND KPWM.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE IFR IN CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY AS
THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 1200 WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THIS...WOULD EXPECT LOWERING CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
AND BEYOND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE WAVE PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT INCREASES ENOUGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS) TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS. IN FACT...BY 1200 UTC TUESDAY...WINDS MAY GE GUSTING NEAR
35 KNOTS AT IOSN3. MODELS TEND NOT TO PICK UP ON THIS LOCAL
ACCELERATION.
WOULD EXPECT TO SEAS TO REACT TO THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FETCH
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BE NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS ANZ154 BY MORNING...
AND APPROACHING THAT IN THE OTHER OCEAN WATERS.
THE WAVE MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN ALL WATERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE CLOSE TO 400 FEET TUESDAY MORNING...
AND THIS WOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN.
WILL NOT INDICATE THIS YET...BUT KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...OVER THE BAYS FIRST AND ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS LATE AT NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OCEAN MAY TAKE ALL NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FETCH SORTS
ITSELF OUT.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
DETAILS OF SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GRADIENT CERTAINLY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
WHETHER WINDS GETS ANY HIGHER WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE FINAL
TRACK...AND HOW THIS INFLUENCES THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
UPDATE...HANES
000
FXUS61 KCAR 222120
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
420 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH STRATOCU ERODING ACROSS THE STATE EXCEPT A SMALL PIECE LEFT
IN THE ALLAGASH ATTM...FOCUS MOVES TO TEMPS TONIGHT. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE STATE...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AN ISSUE. DRY AIR IS
ADVECTING AROUND THE HIGH FROM NEW BRUNSWICK AND NORTHEASTERN
QUEBEC. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT. UNDER PERFECT
CONDITIONS...SOME NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS COULD RADIATE TO THE LOW
TEENS TONIGHT. HAVE ASSUMED A 10C RADIATION INVERSION IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS...BUT BLENDED UPWARD A BIT WITH GEMS AND MOS
GUIDANCE...RESULTING IN SOME UPPER TEENS IN GRIDS. WITH OLD TOWN
HAVING DROPPED TO 25F YESTERDAY...DON`T SEE WHY ANOTHER 4 TO 5
DEGREES LOWER IS NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT STRATOCU TO TRAP BOUNDARY
LYR WARMTH. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE MONDAY EXCEPT
SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO MID-COAST LATER IN THE DAY. LOOKING FOR
THE SHALLOW MORNING INVERSION TO BE ELIMINATED WITH MORNING
HEATING AND TEMPS TO RECOVER TO READINGS A SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY WITH WAA OCCURRING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS MAINE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLY REACHING THE COAST LATE. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK JUST
EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY...WITH AN AREA OF RAIN CLIPPING
DOWNEAST AREAS PARTICULARLY THE COAST. THE REMNANTS OF THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL KEEP DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...WITH A SHARP
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT NORTH OF DOWNEAST AREAS. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTHERN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING DOWNEAST. THE REGION WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY TO NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WE SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS AND IT SHOULD BE A
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE PATH OF THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW
THE STORM SYSTEM COMING ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA.
IT IS ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS HAVE THIS STORM
TAPPING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND PHASING UP BRINGING SOME WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING
TO WATCH AND SEE IF THIS TREND PERSISTS ON LATER MODEL RUNS. AGAIN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM IS VERY IMPORTANT IN THE PRECIP TYPE FOR
THIS PERIOD. WITH THAT BEING SAID DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
SITUATION HAVE PUT CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SATURDAY SHOULD BE CLOUDY AND SOME
AREAS DOWNEAST COULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP ON SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER THE THE POPS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM COMING THROUGH.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE CWA FOR SATURDAY. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH ON SUNDAY AND STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIP ON SUNDAY. AS FOR THE TEMPS HAVE USED GMOS AND
ADJUSTED AS NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR EXCEPT SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
ALLAGASH.
SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN PERSIST THURSDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS DOWNEAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED DOWNEAST FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A STORM MOVING UP THE US COAST AND STRENGTHEN LATE
MONDAY. NO SCA EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN
AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...HILL
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/NORCROSS
000
FXUS61 KGYX 221930
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
230 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. AN EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING
THAT PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN QUEBEC
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND AFFECT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1031 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS VICINITY OF THE GASPE PENINSULA AT 19Z. LOW
CLOUDS FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY EARLIER HAD
LARGELY DISSIPATED AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS HAD EXPANDED
IN COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINE AND SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CLEAR AND COLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS
THAT MAY TEMPER LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT. OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS
AS WELL AS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST...LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING GRADUALLY INLAND WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY MILDER
OVERNIGHT READINGS. A BLEND OF MET/MAV NUMBERS WERE USED TO
INITIALIZE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY...LOW CLOUDS SPREAD FURTHER INLAND IN INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS BY AFTERNOON CONFINED TO AREAS
FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY MAINE. SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY GIVEN THE ONSHORE BREEZE AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A
BIT MORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM...AND LESS CONFIDENCE ON
HOW THE SECOND WILL UNFOLD LATE THIS WEEK.
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO MASS FIELDS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOP ON THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED...AND TRACK SHOULD BE NEAR THE BENCHMARK.
THE 1200 UTC NAM BRINGS A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF NORTH ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE...WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF OFFSHORE (CLOSE TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE).
BASED ON THE ABOVE...LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR PLACEMENT
OF QPF. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE
FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTH OF THIS...THE AIRMASS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW. THE COLUMN IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN
IN JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME
STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED FOR
LOW.
SAME SITUATION FOR TUESDAY...USING THE SAME RATIONALE. THIS PLACES
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS. THE GRADIENT
NEAR THE COAST MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MID COAST. AT THIS POINT...THE MOS
BLEND APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO WARM FOR ALL AREAS...AND THESE
NUMBERS WERE NUDGED DOWN.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER THIS...THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD IN JUST HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LEAVES. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR MAY WAIT UNTIL
LATE AT NIGHT...SO LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM TIMING FOR
CLEARING. THE TIMING DIFFERENCE IS IMPORTANT FOR LOWS...AS THERE
IS AS MUCH AS A 15 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN LOWS BETWEEN MOS VALUES.
RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MUCH COLDER GFS MOS IS TOO
COLD AND LOWS WERE BASED MORE CLOSELY ON THE WARMER NAM MOS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM EASTERN QUEBEC SHOULD BRING
CLEARING WEDNESDAY MORNING (AT THE LATEST). SHORT WAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE EXITING AND THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY.
THE 1200 UTC GFS IS SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THIS
YET...BUT MAY HAVE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY TO ACCOUNT. AFTER THIS...MID RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE 1200 UTC ECMWF IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 1200 UTC GFS IN THE
DETAILS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH ARE NOW KEYING
DEVELOPMENT ON THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 1200
UTC GFS SHIFTS THE FIRST (AND PERHAPS BOGUS?) SHORT WAVE OUT AND
BOTH MODELS DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE COLD
CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO MOISTEN AND WARM
THE COLUMN TO KEEP MOIST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION DIFFERS BETWEEN MODELS...WITH
THE 1200 UTC GFS MUCH HEAVIER WITH REGARD TO QPF...WITH THE ECMWF
ABOUT HALF OF THE 3+ INCHES SHOWN BY THE GFS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.
THIS SEEMS TO BE DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSING ON A ZONE OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE
SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE
COAST...BUT RIGHT NOW NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION ON THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXED LAYER FOR MORE THAN THAT.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...COLD AIR IS AVAILABLE...AND THE
PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE IT
ENDS. WOULD EXPECT UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...BUT
ELSEWHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE TO KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z MONDAY/...VFR TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MVFR
VCNY OF /KPSM/ GRADUALLY SPREADING N AND W TO VCNTY OF /KCON/ AND
/KPWM/ BY 06Z AND TO VCNTY OF /KLEB/ BY 10Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER MONDAY AND SPREAD GRADUALLY NORTH TO VCNTY OF /KAUG/ BY 18Z.
LONG TERM...WOULD EXPECT MOISTURE TO BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
LOWERING INVERSION. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME IFR FOR CEILINGS
AFTER ABOUT 0600 UTC (SOONER NEAR THE COAST...A BIT LATER AT KCON
AND KLEB). VISIBILITY IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN...AS IT DEPENDS ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN SHIELD WITH AN OFFSHORE WAVE GETS...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT KPSM AND KPWM.
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE IFR IN CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY VISIBILITY AS
THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON HOW FAST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR BY 1200 WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THIS...WOULD EXPECT LOWERING CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
AND BEYOND.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD IN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM...THE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ON A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE WAVE PASSES NEAR THE
BENCHMARK LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT INCREASES ENOUGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS) TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS. IN FACT...BY 1200 UTC TUESDAY...WINDS MAY GE GUSTING NEAR
35 KNOTS AT IOSN3. MODELS TEND NOT TO PICK UP ON THIS LOCAL
ACCELERATION.
WOULD EXPECT TO SEAS TO REACT TO THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FETCH
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD BE NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS ANZ154 BY MORNING...
AND APPROACHING THAT IN THE OTHER OCEAN WATERS.
THE WAVE MAKES IT CLOSEST APPROACH TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN ALL WATERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE CLOSE TO 400 FEET TUESDAY MORNING...
AND THIS WOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN.
WILL NOT INDICATE THIS YET...BUT KEEP WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...OVER THE BAYS FIRST AND ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS LATE AT NIGHT. SEAS OVER THE OCEAN MAY TAKE ALL NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FETCH SORTS
ITSELF OUT.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AFTER
THAT...THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
DETAILS OF SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GRADIENT CERTAINLY
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW.
WHETHER WINDS GETS ANY HIGHER WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE FINAL
TRACK...AND HOW THIS INFLUENCES THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 221413
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
913 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AT 13Z. VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW CLOUD...TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON 12Z RAOBS...ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES WERE NOTED
WITH A FEW STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE NORTHEAST
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...EXCEPT A BIT
COOLER UNDER THE STUBBORN STRATOCU ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
1ST PERIOD GRIDS ADJUSTED BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESONET.
PREV DISC...
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY WITH SOME
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVER NORTHERN AND
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD...READING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARRIVING.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 5 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR MONDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NAM AND ECMWF
LIFT ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH THAN GFS. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY ON MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHC IN SRN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE AS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MODELS INDICATE RIDGING AT 5H. WED MAY
TURN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD DAY. I AM PROBABLY TOO PESSIMISTIC
WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
BEYOND WED CONFIDENCE IN FCST IS LOW AS GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN DEVELOPS A STRONG SFC LOW OVER
NYC FRI. ECMWF IS SIMILAR. GEM BRINGS SFC LOW THROUGH SRN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY...EXCEPT FOR LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR IN
CLOUDS VICINITY OF THE CONN VALLEY AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THU EXCEPT SOME PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW FOR THE
UPDATE.
LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS SFC LOW MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SCA PSBL THUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND GALE
FORCE WINDS PSBL FRI AND SAT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 221150
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
650 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO SETTLE IN THROUGH THIS TERM. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO BRING MORE CLOUDS TO CENTRAL AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST AREAS THIS MORNING PER LATEST SATL IMAGES AS CLOUD IS
DROPPING SOUTHWARD IN NNE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. HRLY TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED AS WELL TO FIT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
LATEST IR STAL IMAGERY SHOWED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS(2500 FT)
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE RUC GRABS THIS NICELY AS
DOES THE LATEST LAPS. MDL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE RUC SHOW THIS
STRATOCUMULUS DECK HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE N. THIS
DRY AIR WAS SHOWING UP AS WELL ON THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY OVER
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST...MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS. TWEAKED GMOS NUMBERS
DOWN A DEGREE OR 2 ACROSS THE NORTH W/LOWER 40S AND MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SHOWING
UP BELOW 2500 FT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION W/AN ESE FLOW AND
INVERSION. THE SREF 4 PANEL MOISTURE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS TO SOME
POINT. DECIDED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE COAST AND NUDGED THEM
UP THE PENOBSCOT RIVER TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IN TURN COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TOO LOW IN THESE AREAS OPPOSITE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. TWEAKED
THE DAYCREW/S TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND BROUGHT THEM UP ACROSS THE
BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. FURTHER
NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLIER W/MID-UPPER 20S.
CONTINUED DAY AND A BIT MILDER ON MONDAY W/THE CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD BUT RIDGING REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BRINGING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM AND
GFS FOR POP...SKY COVER AND QPF. FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND
WIND WILL USE GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SMOOTH
GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THEN RE-DEVELOP SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH. WARM AIR MOVING
NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A MOSTLY LIQUID
EVENT INTO SATURDAY....HOWEVER COLDER WILL MOVE AROUND THE BACK OF
THE SYSTEM LATER INTO THE WEEKEND CHANGING SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH GMOS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
SKY...POP AND WIND GUST GRIDS. WILL BASE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE BHB
AREA WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z. GENERALLY VFR RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR
BGR/BHB. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW
MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ATTM...DECISION
WAS TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB TUESDAY NIGHT AND
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND
SEAS OF 2-3 FT LOOK TO BE GOING RATE FOR THIS TERM.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. WILL
INCREASE MODEL BLEND WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS IN NORTHEAST WIND
TUESDAY. HAVE TRANSITIONED TO GMOS WINDS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. FOR
WAVES: WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH WNA/4. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR GMOS WINDS IN INTRA-COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220826
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
326 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO SETTLE IN THROUGH THIS TERM. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
LATEST IR STAL IMAGERY SHOWED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS(2500 FT)
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. THE RUC GRABS THIS NICELY AS
DOES THE LATEST LAPS. MDL SOUNDINGS INCLUDING THE RUC SHOW THIS
STRATOCUMULUS DECK HANGING ON ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING AS DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM THE N. THIS
DRY AIR WAS SHOWING UP AS WELL ON THE LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY OVER
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST...MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS. TWEAKED GMOS NUMBERS
DOWN A DEGREE OR 2 ACROSS THE NORTH W/LOWER 40S AND MID/UPPER 40S
ELSEWHERE.
MDL SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE SOME MOISTURE SHOWING
UP BELOW 2500 FT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION W/AN ESE FLOW AND
INVERSION. THE SREF 4 PANEL MOISTURE PRODUCT SHOWS THIS TO SOME
POINT. DECIDED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS INTO THE COAST AND NUDGED THEM
UP THE PENOBSCOT RIVER TOWARD THE BANGOR REGION BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IN TURN COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT
TOO LOW IN THESE AREAS OPPOSITE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. TWEAKED
THE DAYCREW/S TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND BROUGHT THEM UP ACROSS THE
BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR REGIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP. FURTHER
NORTH...IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLIER W/MID-UPPER 20S.
CONTINUED DAY AND A BIT MILDER ON MONDAY W/THE CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES WELL TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD BUT RIDGING REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE STATE. AT THE
SAME TIME LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY BRINGING THE EDGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM AND
GFS FOR POP...SKY COVER AND QPF. FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND
WIND WILL USE GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SMOOTH
GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THEN RE-DEVELOP SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH. WARM AIR MOVING
NORTH AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A MOSTLY LIQUID
EVENT INTO SATURDAY....HOWEVER COLDER WILL MOVE AROUND THE BACK OF
THE SYSTEM LATER INTO THE WEEKEND CHANGING SHOWERS TO SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH GMOS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
SKY...POP AND WIND GUST GRIDS. WILL BASE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE BHB
AREA WILL LIFT AFTER 12Z. GENERALLY VFR RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR
BGR/BHB. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW
MOISTURE TO GET TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING INVERSION LATE TONIGHT.
THIS COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ATTM...DECISION
WAS TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE TAFS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB TUESDAY NIGHT AND
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND
SEAS OF 2-3 FT LOOK TO BE GOING RATE FOR THIS TERM.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40. WILL
INCREASE MODEL BLEND WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS IN NORTHEAST WIND
TUESDAY. HAVE TRANSITIONED TO GMOS WINDS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. FOR
WAVES: WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH WNA/4. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR GMOS WINDS IN INTRA-COASTAL ZONES.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT
MARINE...NORTON/HEWITT/MIGNONE
000
FXUS61 KGYX 220801
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
301 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS TODAY WITH SOME
LOWER STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION OVER NORTHERN AND
MOUNTAIN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY MILD...READING SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED HIGH THIN CLOUDS ARRIVING.
PATCHY VALLEY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 5 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR MONDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. NAM AND ECMWF
LIFTASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH THAN GFS. WILL KEEP
AREA DRY ON MONDAY.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHC IN SRN NH AND
COASTAL MAINE AS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED MODELS INDICATE RIDGING AT 5H. WED MAY
TURN OUT TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD DAY. I AM PROBABLY TOO PESIMISTIC
WITH THE CLOUD COVER.
BEYOND WED CONFIDENCE IN FCST IS LOW AS GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN DEVELOPS A STRONG SFC LOW OVER
NYC FRI. ECMWF IS SIMILAR. GEM BRINGS SFC LOW THROUGH SRN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL IFR IN ANY
PATCHY VALLEY FOG UNTIL 11Z-13Z.
LONG TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THURS EXCEPT SOME PATCHY RIVER
VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT AND TUE AS SFC LOW MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SCA PSBL THUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND GALE
FORCE WINDS PSBL FRI AND SAT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 220220
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
920 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.&&
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
AFFECTING NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER INTERIOR AREAS WHERE DRY AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER
EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRY AIR WILL MIGRATE
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING...AND A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS IN TURN ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
FOR THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FOR NORTHERN SITES...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD VFR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE AND AVIATION...CANTIN/
000
FXUS61 KGYX 220057 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
757 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO AND THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME STRATUS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARM WITH TEMPS
AND SLIGHTLY LOW WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL WATCH FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
AREA. IF CLOUDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE...LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SH
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS...A SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50...NEARLY A FULL 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WINDS SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW ADDING A BIT OF A CHILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDINESS TO A MINIMUM SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...WOULD EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S
IN ALL AREAS...FAVORED A COOLER GFS MOS SOLUTION IN JUST ABOUT ALL
AREAS.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE EXITING THROUGH THE MARITIMES...SO THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE
DRY TO START. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL GO INTO
MOISTENING THE COLUMN. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY DURING
MONDAY. AFTER A COLD START...WOULD THINK A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS
SHOULD BE OK FOR HIGHS.
THE SHORT WAVE WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE COLUMN WARMS IN
RESPONSE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO ONLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.
FURTHER NORTH...THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION. EVEN HERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMS THE
COLUMN...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR MUCH BESIDE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN BUMPED UP A BIT DUE TO CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY. NOT A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD...AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW SUGGEST MOST PLACES AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD STAY DRY. MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
RAIN NEAR THE COAST.
AFTER THIS...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE WITH RESPECT TO
THE MASS FIELDS...THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT. WITH BROAD
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES....
WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
THE 1200 UTC GFS SWINGS A SHORT WAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM...
BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THIS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT...THANKSGIVING ITSELF COULD BE DRY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
SOLD ON THE TIMING SINCE IT IS TIED TO A CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM.
AFTER THIS...EXPECT TO SEE A MUCH MORE ROBUST SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW...THE COLUMN LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR
MOST OF THE EVENT...BUT COOLING WITH LOWER HEIGHT COULD INTRODUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 23Z SUNDAY/...VFR EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY...WITH
AREAS OF MVFR IN VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG BTWN 08 AND 14Z AT KCON WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KLEB BTWN 10 AND 13Z.
LONG TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXITING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL START TO BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOUTHERN SECTIONS MONDAY NIGHT...AND KPSM...KPWM
AND PERHAPS KAUG MAY SEE CONDITIONS DROP TO IFR BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BRINGING MOISTURE IN AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...IT WOULD APPEAR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLD AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.
LONG TERM...AS SURFACE HIGH REORIENTS ITSELF WEST TO EAST...THE
GRADIENT FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST THEN EAST. THE GRADIENT REMAINS
CONSTANT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS WINDS REMAINS BELOW 20
KNOTS.
AS THE GRADIENT PRODUCES A MORE FAVORABLE EAST TO NORTHEAST
FETCH...SEAS WILL START COMING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WOULD
EXPECT SEAS TO REACH NEAR 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...
WHERE THE FETCH SHOULD BE MOST EFFECTIVE.
THE GRADIENT INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS THE DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE HIGH EXITING OVER THE MARITIMES AND THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST DECREASES. MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED ON THE FETCH...WOULD EXPECT SEAS TO REACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER ALL OF THE OCEAN WATERS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
THE BAYS.
THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE IF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO REACH NEAR GALE. THE
GRADIENT MAY BE CLOSE...BUT MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
LIMITED. BECAUSE OF THIS...WINDS WERE CAPPED BELOW GALE THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS MAY DROP OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
RELAXES. HOWEVER...THE SWELL THAT DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
SHOULD MAINTAIN SEAS WELL ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
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