[top]
000
FXUS61 KGYX 090219
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
919 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS
OF IDA MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC SHOULD BE SHUNTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES LATER TONIGHT BY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
SHOULD BE CLEAR WILL LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING...AS TEMPERATURES
IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE APPROACH FORECAST
LOWS. BASED ON THIS...LOWS OVERNIGHT WERE BUMPED DOWN IN MOST PLACES.
THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY (WITH THE 0000 UTC GYX SOUNDING SHOWING A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.10 INCHES). THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WHICH WERE RUNNING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
USED BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS/WINDS AND BLEND OF
MAV/CURRENT FORECAST FOR POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POOR CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE WHERE DOES THE MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA END UP. EURO MODEL JUST CAME IN WITH
A NEARLY STATIONARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...GFS DRILLS A SYSTEM OFF
THE DELMARVA LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE THE WRF IS MORE DOCILE AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE.
GRIDS COMPLETED WITH SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS FROM GMOS. LOWERED
WIND AND WAVE FIELDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
AN ATTEMPT OF A BLEND OF MODELS SOLUTIONS. LOWERED POPS AS
WELL...AS MOST...IF NOT ALL THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY (THE RECORD FOR PORTLAND FOR TUESDAY IS 63 DEGREES SET IN
1999).
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WOULD EXPECT
THE CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS (AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT) AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER...0000 UTC SOUNDINGS WERE VERY DRY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN AT KLEB.
IN THE SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE OVER SHELTERED VALLEYS.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SHORT TERM...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY...THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO INCREASE.
AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE GRADIENT WOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO APPROACH 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING.
THE FAVORABLE FETCH WOULD ALSO RAISE THE SPECTER OF SEAS REACHING
NEAR 5 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. WILL NOT
RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW...AS WE ARE STILL MORE THAN 18
HOURS FROM SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED BY
THE NEXT SHIFT.
LONG TERM...WIND FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
EITHER WAY...SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 081943
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TRAILING COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS OF IDA MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORKWEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WHICH
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY
WHICH WERE RUNNING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
USED BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST FOR TEMPS/WINDS AND BLEND OF
MAV/CURRENT FORECAST FOR POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POOR CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PROBLEM FOR LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE WHERE DOES THE MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA END UP. EURO MODEL JUST CAME IN WITH
A NEARLY STATIONARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...GFS DRILLS A SYSTEM OFF
THE DELMARVA LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE THE WRF IS MORE DOCILE AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE.
GRIDS COMPLETED WITH SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS FROM GMOS. LOWERED
WIND AND WAVE FIELDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN
AN ATTEMPT OF A BLEND OF MODELS SOLUTIONS. LOWERED POPS AS
WELL...AS MOST...IF NOT ALL THE PCPN SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY (THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR PORTLAND WAS 63 DEGREES SET IN 1999).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH MONDAY
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG POSSIBLE OVER SHELTERED VALLEYS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM...WIND FORECAST VERY DIFFICULT WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
EITHER WAY...SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
[top]
000
FXUS61 KCAR 081940
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
240 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE EAST ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAW A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE REMNANTS OF IDA REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BRISK WNWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
CROSSED THE AREA ERLYR TODAY... SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS
THE FA AND TEMPS QUITE MILD W/ HGHS RANGING FROM LOWER-MID 50S N
TO AROUND 60 S. LACK OF ANY REAL CAA BEHIND THE FRONT HAS
PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF THE USUAL POST-FRONTAL SC DVLPMNT
ACROSS THE N TDY. HGH PRES CNTRD OVR NYS ATTM WILL SLIDE SE AND
PASS S OF THE AREA LATER TNGT/ERLY MON. ASSOCIATED RDG XTNDG N
FROM THIS HGH WILL CREST OUR FA MON AM THEN MOVE E AS LOW PRES
TRACKS EWRD TOWARD THE AREA FROM JUST N OF THE GRT LAKES MON AM.
XPCT SOME INCRS IN MID-HGH CLDS SPCLY ACROSS THE N AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE W AND WEAK WAA PTRN KICKS IN. WILL INTRODUCE
VRY LOW CHC POPS FAR NW LATE MON AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED W/
THIS APPROACHING LOW NOSES INTO THE W AND NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE... W/ THE LACK OF ANY REAL COLD AIR W/ THE CURRENT AIRMASS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION...XPCT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABV SEASONAL NORMS
THRU MON ACROSS THE FA...
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR
POPS...SKY AND QPF WILL BLEND NAM...GFS AND SREF. WILL ALSO SMOOTH
POPS AND LOWER NUMBER A LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS TO BETTER FIT FORECAST POPS.
GMOS WAS USED FOR WIND...TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO MAX TEMPERATURE TO BETTER FIT SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT MORE CONSISTENT. THE
GFS STILL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IDA MOVING IT TO THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINA`S AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM THE ECMWF CENTERS IDA
OVR THE PANHANDLE OF FL THEN DRIFTS IT TO THE EAST ALONG THE COAST
OF GEORGIA OVER TIME. BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESS RIDGE. THE HIGH PRESS
RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH 12Z SUN ON BOTH
MODELS...HOWEVER THE GFS MVS THE REMNANTS OF IDA INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC EAST OF VA THE GRADIENT BTWN THE HIGH PRESS RIDGE AND THE
REMNANTS OF IDA WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE REMNANTS OF
IDA SE OF SC UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN IT WILL BECOME
EXTRA TROPICAL AND MOVE NORTH ALONG A COLD FRONT. THE GFS MVS A
LOW INTO THE COAST OF SRN ME IT IS A 2NDRY LOW...THE PARENT LOW
SITS OVR LAKE SUPERIOR...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO THE COAST OF
TX. LOADED GMOS...MADE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY AND POP
GRIDS FOR DAYS 5 TO 7. BOTH MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDGED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD FELT THAT THE POPS
WERE TO HIGH. LOADED WNAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS. ADJUSTED WINDS AND SEAS
DOWN. INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE BTWN THE MODELS WITH GFS STARTING
TO TREND BACK TOWARDS THE OTHERS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS XPCTD TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THRU MON...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS DOWN TO 6.5 FT AT JONES PORT AT 18Z - DOWN FROM
AROUND 9.5 FT AT 15Z. SEAS ALSO DOWN TO 5.5 FT AT THE ERN MAINE
SHELF WHICH IS DOWN FROM OVER 9 FT ERLYR THIS AM AS WELL... ERLYR
THIS AM XTND THE SCA THRU 20Z AND STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS CAN BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS... THEREAFTER...WNDS/SEAS
XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU MON THO COULD SOME INCRS IN BOTH
LATE MON AS LOW PRES MOVES EWRD FROM N OF THE GRT LAKES MON AND
SWRLY LOW-LVL FLOW OVR THE WATERS INCREASES...
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS.
FOR WAVES HAVE INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH WNA/4. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AS
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN TO THE VICINITY OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS CONFIGURATION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A LONG NORTHEAST
FETCH TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WITH THE LARGES
WAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE
000
FXUS61 KGYX 081400
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
900 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...
MOVING OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED CWF TO DROP SCA HEADLINES OVER THE BAYS.
SOME CLOUDS NOTED ON SAT PIX OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS...SO
HAVE BACKED OFF TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THOSE LOCALES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND MOST SPOTS ARE WARMING
SLIGHTLY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE CWA AROUND NOON WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S SOUTH AS THERMAL PROFILES INCREASE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME WEST LATER TODAY. THE WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE INLAND SOUTHERN
NH AND ME WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE 65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE GFS AND NAM LOOKED TOO WARM TONIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...EVEN WITH THE WARM DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WARM AIR FLOODS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON RETURN
FLOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WARMER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE APPROACH 70 DEGREES EVEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING
OR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO GENERALLY LOOKING
FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE
FOR NORTHERN ZONES WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST.
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY....STALLING OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN HILL AT THIS POINT AS MODELS DIFFERING ON
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. NEW ECMWF SHOWING A SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO
THE GFS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SATISFIED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
CONSIDERING CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY. RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN
ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO JUST SEE LIQUID PRECIP AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
MODELS ALSO COMING INTO CONSENSUS ON GETTING REMNANTS OF IDA INTO
THE ACT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM IS SWEPT UP IN SAME SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HEAD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SPARING THE FORECAST AREA ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS SIMILAR IN HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 6-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE
TO AOB 4KTS AFTER 00Z.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA OVER THE BAYS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SCA CONTINUES
OVER THE OUTER WATERS TIL 1 PM.
LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 080749
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY...
MOVING OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
IS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND MOST SPOTS ARE WARMING
SLIGHTLY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE CWA AROUND NOON WITH SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH AS THERMAL PROFILES INCREASE AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME WEST LATER TODAY. THE WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE INLAND
SOUTHERN NH AND ME WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE 65 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE GFS AND NAM LOOKED TOO WARM TONIGHT GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...EVEN WITH THE WARM DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON THE WAY FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WARM AIR FLOODS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON RETURN
FLOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME WARMER LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE APPROACH 70 DEGREES EVEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS
SPILLING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING
OR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO GENERALLY LOOKING
FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE
FOR NORTHERN ZONES WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT AND SPOTTY AT
BEST.
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY....STALLING OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL ENHANCE
ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN HILL AT THIS POINT AS MODELS DIFFERING ON
INTENSITY AND TRACK OF WEAK SURFACE LOW AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. NEW ECMWF SHOWING A SOLUTIONS SIMILAR TO
THE GFS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE GENERATING PRECIPITATION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SATISFIED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
CONSIDERING CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY. RATHER COLD AIR ALOFT AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME WET SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN
ZONES BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO JUST SEE LIQUID PRECIP AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAIN WARM.
MODELS ALSO COMING INTO CONSENSUS ON GETTING REMNANTS OF IDA INTO
THE ACT ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM IS SWEPT UP IN SAME SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND HEAD EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SPARING THE FORECAST AREA ANY FURTHER PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WILL
SUPPRESS ANY LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS SIMILAR IN HOLDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 6-10 KTS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AND DECREASE
TO AOB 4KTS AFTER 00Z.
LONG TERM...VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA WILL CONTINUNE UNTIL 9 AM. GUSTY SW WINDS MAY
REQUIRE THE SCA TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS FROM STONINGTON TO
CAPE ELIZABETH AND PERHAPS OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...GALES POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
HANES/SINSABAUGH
000
FXUS61 KCAR 080724
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
224 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST EARLY TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LGT...AT BEST SHWR ACTIVITY CROSSING MSLY
NRN PTNS OF THE FA ELY THIS MORN. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD COMPLETELY MOVE E OF THE FA BY MID MORN. GFS 925-850 RH/CU TOOL
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR BKN-OVC SC TO LINGER ACROSS NW AND FAR NRN
PTNS OF THE FA THIS MORN BEFORE INCREASING LLVL DOWNSLOPE AND SUBSIDENCE
ERODES AND SCT`S THE DECK THIS AFT. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT AN ISSUE
AS 25 TO 30 KT POTENTIAL AOA 925 MB MIXES DOWN WITH ANTICIPATED
HTG TDY. SPEAKING OF HTG...HI TEMPS TDY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER
THAN YESTERDAY INITIATING A WARMING TREND FOR THE FA SLATED TO CONT
INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK.
SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLR BY EVE...WITH WINDS STAYING UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT
DECOUPLING OVR SPCLY NRN AND INITIALLY...SRN HIER TRRN PTNS OF THE FA.
THIS IN ADDITION TO INCREASING HI/MID CLD CVR ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF
THE FA LATE TNGT RESULTED IN UTILIZING SOME MODEL AND HI ENS TEMP DATA
FOR ESTIMATING OVRNGT LOWS ACROSS THESE PTNS OF THE FA...WHILE WE KEPT
CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE LOWS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE LIGHTER LATE
NGT WINDS AND LESSER CLD CVR IS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STATE UP NEAR THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY
BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WARM AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FLOW INTO DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE HIGHS SHOULD
BE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 60 IN SOME AREAS. LESS SURE
HOW MUCH WARM AIR WILL MAKE IT UP NORTH. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS BUT COULD END UP WARMER IF THE FRONT NUDGES NORTH
JUST A BIT QUICKER. THE FRONT WILL WORK BACK SOUTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTER A WEAK LOW TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING VARIABLE CLOUDINESS TUESDAY BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
MILD AS THE AIR DOES NOT GET ABRUPTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE TROUGH PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN
BIG DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE TROPICAL LOW WILL LIFT NORTH
AND WHERE IT WILL REDEVELOP A FRONTAL LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE REDEVELOP...
WHETHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC OR OVER THE MARITIMES...WILL BE TOO
FAR EAST TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO MAINE. DUE TO THE
STRUGGLES THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM...
AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE ALL CHANCES OF PRECIP SO STILL MENTION
CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE OVER LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES AWAY OUT
TO SEA. THIS SHOULD END THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND SOME SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR XPCTD TDY THRU TNGT...XCPT PERHAPS BRIEFLY MVFR CLGS TIL MID MORN
AT KCAR AND KPQI. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT THRU THU WITH SOME
PATCHY MID CLOUDS MON AND TUE...UNLESS A STORM SYSTEM OFFSHORE MOVES
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN OR SNOW TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LATEST BUOY AND COASTAL RAINWISE SITE WIND OBS SUPPORT
KEEPING THE SCA GOING THRU THE MORN HRS...EVEN ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS ZONE. DAY CREW CAN THEN MAKE A DECISION TO DROP THE INTRACOASTAL
ZONE FROM THE ADV AND POSSIBLY DOWNGRADE SCA TO SCA FOR SEAS FOR THE
OUTER ZONES FOR THE LATE MORN UPDATE. ALL SCA`S SHOULD BE LOWERED BY
THE LATE AFT UPDATE AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW THRESHOLDS...
WHICH TREND SHOULD CONT THRU THE OVRNGT.
CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN APPROACH SCA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT. WILL BE
WATCHING LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPING OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY BRING WIND AND HIGHER SEAS DURING
MID WEEK IF IT NEARS THE WATERS. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD TAKE
OVER AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
000
FXUS61 KGYX 080156
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
856 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM IDA THEN MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY...MOVING EAST OF CAPE
COD THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECASTS WERE UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS.
WATCHING A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION SHOULD
AFFECT MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND THIS WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST. SOUTH OF THIS...THE ALTOCUMULUS MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO TRACK THE PROGRESS OF THE CLOUDS
AND ADD MORE TO SOUTHERN ZONES AS TRENDS WARRANT.
NOTED SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THE COLUMN IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
AREA...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOISTEN THE
COLUMN...BUT THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING...
LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY IN THE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING IN
THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS. WILL PROBABLY SEE LOWS JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS...AND LOWS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN IN
THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING STEADY. THIS WAS ALSO ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE UPDATED
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE GIVE OR TAKE
A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TO SAY THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WOULD BE A HUGE UNDERSTATEMENT. LONG TERM MODELS TRACK
FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THINGS FALL APART PRETTY QUICKLY
AFTER THAT THOUGH.
STARTING WITH THE 12Z GFS. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE GFS HAS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA OVER THE CAROLINAS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS MERGES THESE TWO SYSTEMS
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERRUNNING PUSHING
WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS WHERE THINGS TAKE A TURN.
THE GFS BASICALLY HALTS THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS IT. THIS DRAGS COLD
AIR INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES OVER AN INCH OF
QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MIGRATES
EAST OF THE AREA.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION. AGAIN...STARTING AT
00Z WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA OVER MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA. IT ALSO HAS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL THEN BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH PUSHES THE REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z. THE RESULT FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY IS HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF SUN.
BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AND IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY TO THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND
DISCOUNTS THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
WATCHING A FAIRLY LARGE ARE OF STRATOCUMULUS TRAPPED UNDER THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED INVERSION. THE GENERAL MOTION HAVE BEEN
TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT KLEB AND KAUG.
THE INVERSION APPEARS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP CEILINGS AT VFR.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK QUICKLY ENOUGH LATE
TONIGHT TO ALL RADIATIONAL FOG TO FORM AT KLEB BETWEEN 0900 AND
1200 UTC. THIS MAY BE A LONG SHOT AS THE AIR IS DRY AND BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS MAY HAVE HARD TO COME BY.
IN THE SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...WINDS ARE NEARING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
IN THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THE GRADIENT IN THE
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. THE MIXED LAYER IN
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IS FAIRLY LOW...AND THIS SHOULD CAP
WINDS OVER THE OCEAN AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN GUSTS.
JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION...WINDS REACH 30 KNOTS AT ABOUT 6000
FEET. WOULD EXPECT TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE INVERSION AND THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE GALE RANGE. THE FAVORABLE FETCH WILL
BRING SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN TONIGHT AND CLOSE TO 5
FEET AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAYS.
IN THE SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...EXPECT TO GO BELOW SCA CRITERIA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NOONTIME.
LONG TERM...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLAGS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 072022
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
322 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT THEN
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY XTNDS FROM LOW PRES JUST N OF THE GRT LAKES
SEWRD ACROSS NYS AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND... CLDS ASSOCIATED W/
THIS WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING NRN NEW ENGLAND INCLUDING
MUCH OF OUR FA. A FEW LGT RTRNS NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS WRN/NWRN
MAINE BUT MUCH OF THIS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE SFC W/ VRY DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER ATMOS AS EVIDENCED BY TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS
NRN MAINE. XPCT THIS WARM FRONT TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVE THEN COULD SEE THE CLD COVER BRIEFLY THIN OUT/CLR BEFORE CLDS W/
THE FOLLOWING WEAK COLD FRONT OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TNGT.
THIS RATHER WEAK COLD FRONT IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA ERLY SUNDAY W
AND BE E OF THE FA BY NOON. WILL CONT TO ADVERTISE LOW SLGT CHC
POPS W/ THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FAR N LATE TDY/THIS EVE W/ LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS THE N LATER TNGT INTO ERLY SUN AHEAD OF AND W/ THE
FOLLOWING COLD FRONT. XPCT CLRG SKIES AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDS ON
SUN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THE AIRMASS TO FOLLOW IS RATHER MILD
SO TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW VS TDY... W/ THE
LACK OF STRONG CAA TO FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...NOT XPCTG
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THE USUAL SC CLDS ACROSS THE N WE TYPICALLY SEE
FOLLOWING STRONGER COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR...
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD AND CREST OVER THE STATE MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE EAST.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.
FOR SKY...POP AND QPF HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND NAM ALONG WITH SREF
FOR POP. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POP. FOR WIND
WILL USE GMOS. THE PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS APPEAR
REASONABLE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS ALL BY
ITS SELF FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A
LOW OVR ERN ME/WRN NB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
EXTEND BACK TO THE SE THROUGH CAPE COD. THE FRONT MVS THROUGH AND
THE LOW MVS E BY 12Z AND THE CWA IS IN WRAP AROUND PRECIP THROUGH
THE DAY. THE GFS...HAS THE SAME LOW OVR CNTRL ME WITH A 2NDRY LOW
ON THE COLD FRONT IN UPSTATE NEW YORK. A 3RD LOW WHICH WOULD BE
THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE IDA OVR THE FL PANHANDLE. BY 12Z THE
REMNANTS OF IDA MVS THE THE ERN SEABOARD ALONG NJ DEEPENS AS IT
GETS INTO THE GULF STREAM WATERS. BY 00Z THURS THE REMNANTS OF IDA
DEEPEN TO A MAJOR LOW IN THE SRN GULF OF MAINE WATER EAST OF CAPE
COD. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
DRIFTING TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 36HRS 12Z ON FRI. AT THIS POINT
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AGREE A HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL BE BUILT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS AGREEMENT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED BY 00Z SAT THE GEM/ECMWF MV A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH ME...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS ENOUGH VARIBILITY IN THE GUIDANCE THAT I
DECIDED TO TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. LOADED THE HPC
GUIDANCE FOR WED THROUGH FRI. LOADED GMOS GUIDANCE FOR FRI
THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD. FOR SEAS USED NAWAVE10 FROM PREVIOUS
RUN. BASED ON VARIBILITY OF THE MODELS FELT THAT THE PREVIOUS RUN
WAS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: XPCT MAINLY VFR CONDS THRU SUN THO COULD SEE CONDS LOWER
TO LOW VFR SUN AM ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES AHEAD OF AND W/ A WEAK
COLD FRONT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE TO KEEP CONDS JUST BLO SCA TNGT
AND ERLY SUN BUT SECONDS THOUGHTS WON OUT... FEEL MINIMAL SCA IS
JUSTIFIED FROM LATE EVE THRU MID AM SUN IN STRENGTHENING SW LOW-
LVL FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT XPCTD TO CROSS THE WATERS SUN
AM.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR WINDS.
FOR WAVES WILL USE WNA/4. ONLY ADJUSTMENT FOR WAVE MODEL WILL BE TO
KEEP MINIMUM WAVE HEIGHT AT 2 FEET DUE TO FAIRLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE
000
FXUS61 KGYX 071953
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
244 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
IDA THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...MOVING EAST OF CAPE COD LATER WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION ON LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...INCREASING MOISTURE ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL IMPORT SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BASED ON CLOUD COVER/WARM AIR ADVECTION.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS
...THOUGH HAVE KEPT A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SOME EVENING SHOWERS AND
OVERNIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.
TEMPS/WINDS A BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST AND POPS A BLEND OF
MAV/CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE GIVE OR TAKE
A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TO SAY THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WOULD BE A HUGE UNDERSTATEMENT. LONG TERM MODELS TRACK
FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THINGS FALL APART PRETTY QUICKLY
AFTER THAT THOUGH.
STARTING WITH THE 12Z GFS. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE GFS HAS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA OVER THE CAROLINAS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS MERGES THESE TWO SYSTEMS
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERRUNNING PUSHING
WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS WHERE THINGS TAKE A TURN.
THE GFS BASICALLY HALTS THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS IT. THIS DRAGS COLD
AIR INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES OVER AN INCH OF
QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MIGRATES
EAST OF THE AREA.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION. AGAIN...STARTING AT
00Z WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA OVER MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA. IT ALSO HAS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL THEN BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH PUSHES THE REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z. THE RESULT FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY IS HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF SUN.
BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AND IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY TO THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND
DISCOUNTS THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY FR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MVFR
IN ANY PATCHY VALLEY FOG 08Z-12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE SCA`S FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. EXPECT TO GO BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE NOONTIME.
LONG TERM...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLAGS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 071951
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
244 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
IDA THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...MOVING EAST OF CAPE COD LATER WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION ON LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...INCREASING MOISTURE ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL IMPORT SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BASED ON CLOUD COVER/WARM AIR ADVECTION.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS
...THOUGH HAVE KEPT A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SOME EVENING SHOWERS AND
OVERNIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.
TEMPS/WINDS A BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST AND POPS A BLEND OF
MAV/CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE GIVE OR TAKE
A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TO SAY THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WOULD BE A HUGE UNDERSTATEMENT. LONG TERM MODELS TRACK
FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THINGS FALL APART PRETTY QUICKLY
AFTER THAT THOUGH.
STARTING WITH THE 12Z GFS. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE GFS HAS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA OVER THE CAROLINAS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS MERGES THESE TWO SYSTEMS
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERRUNNING PUSHING
WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS WHERE THINGS TAKE A TURN.
THE GFS BASICALLY HALTS THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS IT. THIS DRAGS COLD
AIR INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES OVER AN INCH OF
QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MIGRATES
EAST OF THE AREA.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION. AGAIN...STARTING AT
00Z WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA OVER MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA. IT ALSO HAS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL THEN BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH PUSHES THE REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z. THE RESULT FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY IS HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF SUN.
BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AND IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY TO THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND
DISCOUNTS THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY FR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MVFR
IN ANY PATCHY VALLEY FOG 08Z-12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE WINDS GUST TO 20 KITS THIS EVENING...MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KITS. WILL HOLD TO NIGHTS FORECAST JUST BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLAGS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 071944
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
244 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
IDA THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...MOVING EAST OF CAPE COD LATER WEDNESDAY AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION ON LATER FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...INCREASING MOISTURE ON A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL IMPORT SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BASED ON CLOUD COVER/WARM AIR ADVECTION.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS
...THOUGH HAVE KEPT A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SOME EVENING SHOWERS AND
OVERNIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS.
TEMPS/WINDS A BLEND OF MAV/MET/CURRENT FORECAST AND POPS A BLEND OF
MAV/CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND SUNRISE GIVE OR TAKE
A COUPLE OF HOURS AND THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TO SAY THAT THE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WOULD BE A HUGE UNDERSTATEMENT. LONG TERM MODELS TRACK
FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THINGS FALL APART PRETTY QUICKLY
AFTER THAT THOUGH.
STARTING WITH THE 12Z GFS. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY THE GFS HAS THE
REMNANTS OF IDA OVER THE CAROLINAS...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS MERGES THESE TWO SYSTEMS
JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERRUNNING PUSHING
WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS WHERE THINGS TAKE A TURN.
THE GFS BASICALLY HALTS THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS IT. THIS DRAGS COLD
AIR INTO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND PRODUCES OVER AN INCH OF
QPF IN THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. PRECIPITATION WOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM MIGRATES
EAST OF THE AREA.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION. AGAIN...STARTING AT
00Z WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA OVER MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA. IT ALSO HAS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL THEN BUILDS HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...WHICH PUSHES THE REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z. THE RESULT FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY IS HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF SUN.
BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST AND IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY TO THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND
DISCOUNTS THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY FR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERHAPS SOME LOCAL MVFR
IN ANY PATCHY VALLEY FOG 08Z-12Z SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...COULD SEE WINDS GUST TO 20 KITS THIS EVENING...MAY EVEN
SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KITS. WILL HOLD TO NIGHTS FORECAST JUST BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FLAGS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 071505
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1005 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO DATABASE PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
LOOKS LIKE A FEW MORE CLOUDS APPROACHING NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SECTIONS
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SO HAVE POPULATED WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND THIS WILL YIELD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN
SECTIONS. TRIMMED A DEGREE OR TWO OFF THOSE LOCATIONS TEMPERATURES
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS
TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING. FOG PRODUCT INDICATING
STRATOCUMULUS STILL REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION...WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NE ZONES. PARTLY CLOUDS
SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY IS
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
GMOS LOOKED TOO LOW GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND WENT CLOSER
TO THE NAM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO BRUSH
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW PUMPING
SOME UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION. LOOKING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN SOME OF THE WARMEST
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS
IN NORTHWEST ZONES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS BUT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REVERSED ROLES IN THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH THE GFS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE AND 12Z ECMWF TRYING TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOW THE WAVE
OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN ANY CASE SHOWERS LOOKING LIKELY WITH THE
FROPA ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS ALSO LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE 1ST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT TAKES IT`S TIME CLEARING THE COAST. LOOKING FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FRESHENING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT. LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL DO LITTLE TO RAISE TEMPS AS COLD UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE AREA. SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF EVEN WARMER SOUTHERN ZONES GETTING
OUT OF THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD BE A CHILLY ONE WITH MOST AREAS DECOUPLING.
HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING EASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
MAINE WILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WARMER AIR MAKES
ANOTHER RUN AT THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED LATER THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA ON TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TONIGHT.
EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
000
FXUS61 KCAR 070805
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BKN-OVC SC CONTS TO PREVAIL ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FA ERLY THIS
MORN...BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL THIN AND GIVE WAY TO PTLY TO MSLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORN SPCLY ACROSS ERN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA WITH
INCREASED LLVL SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE CNTR OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.
HI/MID CLDS ARRIVE FROM QB PROV MIDDAY AND ERLY AFT AHEAD OF A
ZONAL S/WV E CNTRL CA. GIVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...
ANY SHWRS FROM MID AFT INTO TNGT...WHICH WILL BE RN AND SN
MIXED...WILL BE SCT AND CONFINED TO NRN PTNS OF THE FA. WITH
LITTLE QPF POTENTIAL...LITTLE...AND MORE LIKELY NO SN ACCUMULATION
IS XPCTD. ANY REMAINING SHWRS SHOULD BEGIN MOVING E OF THE FA BY
VERY LATE TNGT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES E THRU THE FA. HI TEMPS
TDY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEG BELOW NORMAL...BUT LLVL SW RETURN FLOW
AND CLD CVR WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS ERLY SUN MORN ABV NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE AWAY ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
REASSERT ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A WESTERLY BREEZE THAT WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS. A VERY WEAK LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WILL
PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BRINGING CLOUDINESS AND
POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OVER FAR NORTHERN SPOTS. THE DOWNEAST REGION
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE
IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TRACK JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE TUESDAY PULLING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST
GFS SHOWS THE FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY BUT
STILL INDICATES A WEAKNESS...A POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TUESDAY. THE
LATEST GFS DEVELOPS THIS LOW TOO SLOWLY TO ALLOW IT TO HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT IF IT ENDS UP DEVELOPING MORE QUICKLY IT
MAY HOLD UP PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. THE ECMWF IS
STRONGLY SUPPORTING THIS SECONDARY LOW WHICH WOULD BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO SNOW EVENT TO THE REGION. THE CANADIAN
GEM...HOWEVER...IS SWEEPING THE FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY BEFORE ANY
REDEVELOPMENT CAN BACK INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST FORECASTING
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL SITES TDY AND TNGT...WITH NRN TAF SITES
EXPERIENCING LOW VFR CONDITIONS IN BKN-OVC SC ERLY THIS MORN AND
AGAIN LATE TNGT.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH REMAINS IN CONTROL. CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO MVFR MONDAY EVENING THEN IFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN VFR WEDNESDAY SHOULD PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS...BUT WINDS AND WVS ARE LIKELY
TO INCREASE TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SPCLY OVER THE OUTER WATER
ZONES LATE TNGT WITH A WSW RETURN FLOW WIND FETCH.
AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY THEN REQUIRE
AN SCA OR MINIMAL GALE ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
000
FXUS61 KGYX 070726
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO RETURN
TO THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING. FOG PRODUCT INDICATING STRATOCUMULUS
STILL REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EVIDENT OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE NE ZONES. PARTLY CLOUDS SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY IS LIKELY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH. INCREASING CLOUDINESS
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT OF THIS FEATURE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NE TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
GMOS LOOKED TOO LOW GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AND WENT CLOSER
TO THE NAM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO BRUSH
NORTHERN ZONES WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW PUMPING
SOME UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO THE REGION. LOOKING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN SOME OF THE WARMEST
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS
IN NORTHWEST ZONES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS BUT
APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REVERSED ROLES IN THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH THE GFS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE AND 12Z ECMWF TRYING TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOW THE WAVE
OVER THE NORTHEAST. IN ANY CASE SHOWERS LOOKING LIKELY WITH THE
FROPA ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS ALSO LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE 1ST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS
COLD FRONT TAKES IT`S TIME CLEARING THE COAST. LOOKING FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FRESHENING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT. LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL DO LITTLE TO RAISE TEMPS AS COLD UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
THE AREA. SEE LITTLE CHANCE OF EVEN WARMER SOUTHERN ZONES GETTING
OUT OF THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD BE A CHILLY ONE WITH MOST AREAS DECOUPLING.
HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING EASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
MAINE WILL TRY TO PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NORTHERN ZONES
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WARMER AIR MAKES
ANOTHER RUN AT THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED LATER THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA ON TUESDAY. VFR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TONIGHT.
EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
HANES/SINSABAUGH
000
FXUS61 KCAR 070345
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1045 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
LATER MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WHERE FLURRIES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S DOWNEAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEAR
TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A NEW LOW OVER SRN HUDSON BAY WILL FORCE THE HIGH TO
THE SE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SWRLY LOW-LVL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA LATE SAT AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. XPCT THIS WEAK FRONT TO
SLIP ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MINIMAL-WEAK CAA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. HGH PRES WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA LATER SUN
W/ ITS ASSOCIATED RDG FCST TO CREST THE STATE SUNDAY NGT. SW LOW-
LVL FLOW RETURNS FOR MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE W. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WARM FRONT TO DVLP ACROSS FAR NRN
AREAS LATER MON AS WEAK WAA AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT PTRN
DVLPS. WILL INCRS POPS LATE MON TO SLGT CHC FAR N W/ LOW CHC POPS
FAR NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. BASED ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF HOWEVER STALLS THE FRONT OFF THE MAINE COAST THEN DEVELOPS
COASTAL LOW WHICH THEN MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. THE GMOS
WHICH PUTS LOW POPS INTO THE REGION IS A GOOD COMPROMISE UNTIL THE
ECMWF BEGINS TO TREND ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. WILL INITIALIZE GRIDS WITH
GMOS AND MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ADJUST AND SMOOTH SKY AND POP
GRIDS. WILL BASE PRECIPITATION TYPE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH/MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
VFR CONDS XPCTD SAT NGT THRU MON.
LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NGT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY.
MINIMAL SCA CONDS PSBL IN BRISK SW FLOW SAT NGT/SUN AM AS WEAK
TROF OF LOW PRES PASSES N OF THE WATERS. OTHRWS...WNDS/SEAS XPCTD
TO REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU MON.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORTON/NORCROSS
MARINE...NORTON/KHW/NORCROSS
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