000
FXUS63 KGRR 082227
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
528 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ONLY FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR POPS ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LOWERED POPS GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE FRONT. HAD
THOUGHT ABOUT DROPPING POPS ALTOGETHER AS THE 20 KM WRF WAS SHOWING
A DRY FROPA...BUT THERE IS A GOOD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL RH CURRENTLY
SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THIS COULD FEED INTO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.

12Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWS QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN REGION
OF BEST MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER WAS DROPPED FROM
THE WEATHER GRIDS SINCE BOTH INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ARE
RATHER MARGINAL. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK KEEPS GENERAL THUNDER OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AND PRODUCE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS. I RAISED MAX
TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AS WE GET INTO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE. NO QUESTION THAT MEX
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ARE TOO COOL GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(528 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
IT WOULD SEEM VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL 03Z OR SO SINCE
THERE IS ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF ACCAS MOVING EAST OF LANSING AS OF
22Z. THE LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL
INCREASE WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL TO NEAR 40 KNOTS BY 06Z... SO I
ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL THE TAF SITES. GIVEN THAT MUCH
WIND THE MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD PREVENT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS
FOG EVENT. EVEN SO...SOME LIGHT FOG WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
TOWARD MORNING.

BASED ON SOUNDING FROM THE GFS...NAM AND FIM MODELS A CLOUD DECK
NEAR 2000 FT AGL SHOULD MOVE IN WITH THE COLD FRONT AND LAST INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF ALL
THE TAF SITE SO I DID NOT PUT ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH WAVES NEAR 4 FEET ALONG BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS. HELD OFF ON A SCA GIVEN THE MARGINAL WINDS/WAVES. THINGS
SHOULD CALM DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     OSTUNO
SHORT TERM:   OSTUNO
LONG TERM:    LAURENS
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:    OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KAPX 082104
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 404 PM/

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 404 PM/...TONIGHT

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER...WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE
RECOVERED INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN REMAIN IN THE 30S.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN KANSAS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE MID CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT (SOME ACCAS
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER AS WELL).  NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

UPSTREAM SURFACE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  THIS
WILL PULL THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS
WELL.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA LATER TODAY...THOUGH MID LEVELS ARE STILL DRY DESPITE SOME
DECENT FORCING SPREADING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  THIS WILL LIMIT THE
THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...THOUGH DRIZZLE PROBABLE ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER AND ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  INCREASING DEW POINTS ACROSS COOLING LAKE WATERS MAY ALSO
RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY INTO EASTERN UPPER AND FAR
NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BIT OF ONSHORE FLOW (UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO
AID FOG POTENTIAL INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER LATE).

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 404 PM/...MONDAY AND BEYOND

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM THAT ORIGINATED OVER THE
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY
MONDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN LAKES DURING
THE AFTN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC BY
MONDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING LIMITED MSTR
ONCE AGAIN IN MID LEVELS AROUND 60PCT BTWN 850/500MB...IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MSTR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS TO INCREASE BUT ALSO
LIMITED...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE 40S AND 850MB DEW PTS INCREASING
TO AROUND 4C IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL
LIFT WILL BE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAKENING 120KT
300MB JET...WHICH WILL QUICKLY SWEEP OVER THE NRN LAKES IN THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL WILL CONT LOW POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND
LIMITED QPF...DUE TO LARGE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WOULD BE INTERESTING WITH BKN CLOUD COVER...LIMITED RAINFALL
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
FAIRLY GOOD MIXING THRU 850MB WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST AND SOME SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP MIX WARMER 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 4C DOWN. THEREFORE WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN....ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN LAKES. ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND MSTR PROGS SHOWING DRY COLUMN FROM THE SFC THROUGH 400MB ACROSS
NRN MI. WILL MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN MI WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S ON WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...THIS PERIOD CATEGORIZED BY SLOW TRANSIENT HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC
THROUGH 500MB...WITH 850/500MB AND 850/300MB RH UNDER 30 PCT. SFC
DEW PTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S WHILE 850MB DEW PTS DROP WELL
BELOW 0Z. OVERALL WILL MENTION MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CWA THROUGH
THE PD. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 50 DEGREES TUESDAY...AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB AROUND 1C FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND UPPER
TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE STATE. WILL MENTION SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LAKES AND 850MB TEMPS
WARM SLIGHTLY WITH GOOD MIXING THROUGH THAT LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MSTR RETURN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND A STORM
SYSTEM SLOWLY ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY DRY AT THE MOMENT DUE TO PROLONGED DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION... MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS
PREVAILING AND OVERALL WEAKLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM. PCPN CHANCES
INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE LAKES SUNDAY. AT UPPER
LEVELS WEAK UPPER RIDGING PATTERN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE LAKES...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IN
RESPONSE TO SFC PATTERN AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NRN LAKES.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 50 THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 404 PM/

WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE STATE
MONDAY...WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEHIND
THE EASTWARD EXITING BOUNDARY. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NRN MI NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE BOUNDARY MOVING
OVER THE STATE. DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE NRN LAKES.

SWR


&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1242 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNSET AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KMQT 082103
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS /ISSUED AT 400 PM EST/...

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE NRN CONUS BTWN A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND BROAD
RIDGE OVER ERN U.S. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE NRN PLAINS IS
GENERATING A CLOUD SHIELD STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 700 MB
FGEN FORCING IS SUPPORTING LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER NRN MN AND
VIRGA OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW UPR MI AS NOTED ON SFC OBS AND RADAR
LOOP. NOT SURPRISINGLY...VERY DRY AIR AT LOW-LVLS AS NOTED ON
UPSTREAM 12Z KBIS AND KABR HAS PROHIBITED ANY PCPN FM REACHING THE
GROUND OVER OUR CWA. UNDER A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SOME SUNSHINE TEMPS
TODAY HAVE CLIMBED GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO UPR 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF MID-LVL MOISTURE...700 MB FGEN FORCING
AND UPR LVL DIVERGENCE...BELIEVE LOW-LVLS WILL BE PROHIBITIVELY DRY
FOR PCPN TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MODELS DO SHOW SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BUT I`M SKEPTICAL THAT IT WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE PCPN GIVEN DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME SINCE MODELS STILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
QPF OVER THE WRN AND NCNTRL COUNTIES OF THE CWA...I`M RELUCTANT TO
DROP THE SLIGHT MENTION OF RAIN IN GOING FCST. WITH RISING DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED ALSO KEPT IN AREAS OF FOG FOR LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

.MONDAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND SFC TROF/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MIXING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO UPR 50S SCNTRL AND ALONG DOWNSLOPING
SHORELINE AREAS OF LAKE MI.


.LONG TERM DISCUSSION /MON NGT THRU SUN/...

HI PRES RDG/DRIER MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS (H85 TEMPS NO LOWER THAN
ABOUT -1C/PWAT ARND 0.25 INCH) IS FCST TO BLD INTO THE UPR GRT LKS
ON MON NGT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR RA CHCS ON MON.
THE INCOMING AIRMASS WL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY LK EFFECT PCPN. IN
FACT...GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SUG LTL IN THE WAY OF LO CLD ANYWHERE WITH
GENERAL ACYC FLOW. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S NEAR
THE WI BORDER...CLOSEST TO THE INCOMING HI PRES CENTER/WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT.

ON TUE...SFC HI PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL. NAM/GFS
FCST SDNGS SUG A MOSUNNY DAY. WENT WITH A BIT MORE CLD COVER OVER
THE E UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF. EXPECT HI TEMPS OVER THE SCNTRL TO
APRCH 55 PER MIXING TO H85-9.

ON TUE NGT/WED...SFC HI PRES RDG WL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD...WITH INCRSG
SLY FLOW/WAD ON ITS WESTERN FLANK. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS ON TUE NGT OVER THE CNTRL AND E CLOSEST TO
DEPARTING SFC RDG/LIGHTER WINDS/ AXIS OF LOWER PWAT. ARRIVAL OF
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER SLY FLOW/SOME HI CLD OVER THE W LATE
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF MID LVL RDG AXIS WL RESTRICT THE DIURNAL FALL
OF TEMP OVER THE W ON TUE NGT. DESPITE THE INCRSG WAD ON WED...LLVLS
ON FCST SDNGS APPEAR TOO DRY TO ALLOW FOR ANY PCPN...JUST SOME MID
CLDS.

THE EXTENDED RANGE FCST WL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF THE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE FLOW THAT WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SUSTAINED COLD
AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE UPR GRT LKS THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH EL NINO
CONDITIONS IN THE ERN PACIFIC. SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE THE
RULE. THE OPS MODELS HINT THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRI/FRI NGT WHEN WAD IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SHRTWV IMPACTS THE
AREA. ANY PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA. OPTED TO RETAIN GOING SCHC
POPS ON WED NGT THRU THU NGT TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT WAD SHOWN BY
THE 00Z GFS...THE OPS MODEL MOST FAVORED BY NCEP. LES CHCS LATE FRI
NGT/ SAT WITH THE CAD IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHRTWV DO NOT LOOK SGNFT
WITH BULK OF COLD AIR PROGGED TO REMAIN IN CAN...THE COLDER 00Z GFS
INDICATES H85 TEMPS WL FALL TO ONLY ARND -8C. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS
H85 TEMPS NO LOWER THAN ABOUT -5C. THE COLD AIR IS PROGGED TO LIFT
OUT QUICKLY WITH RISING H5 HGTS ON SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

WITH THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINING DRY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK LOW
PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWERING OF CLOUDS BRIEFLY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
BY LATE TONIGHT. BELIEVE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCMX
LATE TONIGHT. ONSET OF WRLY FLOW BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AS A
WEAK LOW PRES MOVES IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE UNDER 20KT TODAY THRU MONDAY MORNING.
AS BUILDING HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS MON DRIFTS E...NW WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE FOR A TIME OVER CENTRAL AND ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20KT TUE/TUE NIGHT AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE AGAIN MOVES OVER THE AREA. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
DRIFT E...A COUPLE OF LOW PRES TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA WED
THRU THU. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND THE
LOW PRES TROFS WILL PUSH WINDS BRIEFLY INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE ACROSS
MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS

000
FXUS63 KDTX 082019
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
319 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
EARLY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY SOME BROKEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL BE ADVANCING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...OTHER THEN THAT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REIGN
OVERNIGHT. ONCE CONCERN IS FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
HOLD STEADY OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY AROUND 50 DEGREES. LOWS SHOULD
RADIATE DOWN TO THE DEW POINT LEVEL BUT SHOULDN`T PUSH THEM DOWN
AS SURFACE GRADIENT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS UP
OVERNIGHT PROVIDING SOME MIXING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HAZE/FOG
OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS THIS MORNINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI ON MONDAY.  FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKING LESS IMPRESSIVE NOW AS THE FRONT BECOMES ALIGNED
PARALLEL TO THE MEAN UPPER FLOW.  GIVEN THIS AND THE RELATIVELY
MODEST MOISTURE FIELDS...WILL SCALE BACK ON POPS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/SPRINKLE MENTION DURING THIS TIME.
AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM THIS WEEKEND UNDER
PERSISTENT PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY CUT INTO HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS BY A DEGREE
OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY /HIGHS LOW-MID 60S/.

AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION WILL
DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS
REGION OF BETTER ASCENT SOUTHWARD WHILE CONTRACTING THE AREAL
COVERAGE INTO A NARROWER WEST-EAST CORRIDOR.  THIS AXIS NOW LOOKS TO
EXTEND FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
IN/EXTREME SOUTHERN MI.  MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE
DISPLAYED QUITE A BIT OF AREAL AND TEMPORAL FAVORABLY WITH THIS
FEATURE AND THE CORRESPONDING RAIN POTENTIAL.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER/WETTER ECMWF.  HOWEVER WILL SCALE BACK
ON POPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...GIVEN THE GFS TREND BACK TOWARD THE
DRIER/WEAKER NAM SOLUTION.  OVERALL BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST NEAR THE OHIO BORDER AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAKE A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS UNDER CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WED-THU PERIOD.  A DEEP DRY RESIDENT AIRMASS WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE
WILL ENSURE MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE FULL INSOLATION WILL WORK TO COUNTER ONLY MODEST MIXING ON
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO HOVER AROUND NORMAL
FOR VETERANS DAY /HIGHS UPR 40S-LWR 50S/.  CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.  THUS WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY FOR
LOWS THURSDAY MORNING.  DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD INSOLATION WILL
NUDGE HIGHS UP SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY/FRI NGT AS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD DOWNSTREAM OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.  THE DEGREE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION WARRANTS AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS PERIOD.  LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON TAKING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE /OR A PIECE OF IT/ NORTHEAST
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE DRAGGING
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE SAT/SAT NGT.  THE FRONTAL
FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUSTIFIES MAINTAINING A LOW POP FOR THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES MAY INEVITABLY PROVE TOO LIMITED
TO GENERATE MUCH QPF WITH THE INITIAL FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A WARM FRONT.  WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE DAY. WAVES
MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT NEARSHORES OF
LAKE HURON AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE
OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1215 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

AVIATION...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 00Z WITH JUST SOME
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.  WITH SKIES GOING BACK TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT
AND AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE...EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
FORM IN HAZE AND FOG.  WITH WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE
FOG TO FORM.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......DRC
AVIATION.....DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 082016
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

LATEST UPDATE...SYNOPSIS/SHORT AND LONG TERM/MARINE/HYDRO...

.SYNOPSIS...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ONLY FORECAST ISSUE IN THE NEAR TERM IS FOR POPS ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LOWERED POPS GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE FRONT. HAD
THOUGHT ABOUT DROPPING POPS ALTOGETHER AS THE 20 KM WRF WAS SHOWING
A DRY FROPA...BUT THERE IS A GOOD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL RH CURRENTLY
SEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THIS COULD FEED INTO THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.

12Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWS QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN REGION
OF BEST MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT. THUNDER WAS DROPPED FROM
THE WEATHER GRIDS SINCE BOTH INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE ARE
RATHER MARGINAL. LATEST SPC OUTLOOK KEEPS GENERAL THUNDER OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AND PRODUCE
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS. I RAISED MAX
TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AS WE GET INTO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE. NO QUESTION THAT MEX
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ARE TOO COOL GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(1140 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED SINCE
FLOW AND MIXING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AS COMPARED TO EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME... IF
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT... FOG
WOULD BECOME MUCH MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FCST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CLOUD DECK INTO MKG BY AROUND
12Z MONDAY MORNING (CIGS 1.5 TO 2.5 KFT AGL). THIS LOW CLOUD DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ESE IMPACTING THE REST OF OUR TAF SITES BY
14Z-16Z MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
ALL TAF SITES FROM DAYBREAK MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH WAVES NEAR 4 FEET ALONG BIG AND LITTLE SABLE
POINTS. HELD OFF ON A SCA GIVEN THE MARGINAL WINDS/WAVES. THINGS
SHOULD CALM DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(315 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     OSTUNO
SHORT TERM:   OSTUNO
LONG TERM:    LAURENS
AVIATION:     LAURENS
MARINE:       OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:    OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KMQT 081821 AAB
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS /ISSUED AT 453 AM EST/...

UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL OVR THE UPR GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
DOWNSTREAM OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVR THE WRN CONUS. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH BROAD AREA
OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SHROUD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS
BASED AT 10KFT SPREADING FM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. ABR/MPX/FGF RADARS
DO INDICATE NARROW BAND OF RETURNS FM CNTRL SD INTO WCNTRL MN. VERY
FEW SFC OBS REPORTING ANY PCPN AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER SEEN ON 00Z ABR/MPX SOUNDINGS. OVR UPR MI...SKIES
ARE CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DRIFTING ACROSS. TEMPS AWAY FM
THE LAKES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S WITH RADIAIONAL COOLING BUT NEAR
THE SHORES MIXING HAS NEVER REALLY CEASED AND TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S.

&&

.DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 453 AM EST/...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS REMAINS MAIN INFLUENCE.
NEXT CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TODAY...INCREASING MID CLOUDS FM WEST TO EAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
290-295K SFC (H8-H6) MOVES ACROSS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCES LIFT
ON THIS MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY PCPN THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SPRINKLES FALLING FM A MID CLOUD DECK OVR THE
WEST THIS AFTN AS THERE IS SOME OMEGA PROGGED IN THE MID CLOUD
LAYER. WOULD BE EITHER SPRINKLES OR JUST VIRGA. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WENT FOR HIGHS INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS TO KEY ON FOR PCPN
POTENTIAL. RIBBON OF H8-H6 FGEN SPREADING FM THE DAKOTAS LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO TONIGHT. SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SOME SHRA WITH THIS AREA DUE TO THE FGEN/DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND
SINCE THIS IS WHERE AIR PARCELS COMING IN FM THE SOUTH WOULD HAVE
THE LONGEST TIME TO SATURATE AND PRODUCE SOME PCPN.

SECOND PCPN INSTIGATOR FOR TONIGHT IS LESS CLEAR CUT. AFTER SFC
RIDGE LIFTS OUT OF THE CWA LATER TODAY...RETURN S/SW FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSPORT HIGHER 925-850MB MOISTURE TOWARD UPR LAKES. 00Z RAOBS
QUITE SPARSE WITH H85 MOISTURE ALL THE WAY INTO NRN TX...SO HAVE
SOME DOUBTS ON MOISTURE QUALITY FOR ANY SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. SOME
HIGHER DWPNTS AT 925MB/SFC WERE NOTED AS FAR NORTH AS KS/MO THOUGH.
EXPECT INCREASING LLJ AHEAD OF DEVELOPING H85 WAVE AND WEAK SFC
FRONT. H85 WAVE MOVES INTO SW UPR MI BTWN 00Z-06Z AND HEADS EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ALSO LIFTS JUST OUT AHEAD
OF THE H85 WAVE. MAIN PCPN WITH THESE FEATURE WOULD LIKELY OCCUR AS
MAX THETA-E ADVECTION FM 925MB-850MB OCCURS ON NOSE OF LLJ.
SOUNDINGS ARE OTHERWISE FAIRLY DRY. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND LOCAL WRF
KEY ON THESE FACTORS TO FOCUS PCPN TONIGHT...BUT AM CONCERNED THAT
THERE MAY BE ONLY ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ONLY CLOUDS. OVERALL...FOR
BOTH PCPN TRIGGERS...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN FCST. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS LIMITED TO EARLY IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THIS ONLY IS
OVR THE FAR E CWA. KEPT POPS ON MONDAY LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF/ON THE WARM ASCENDING SIDE OF/ PROGGED H85-H7 DEVELOPING
FGEN RIBBON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OTHERWISE...AND HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS A BIT AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY INLAND WEST.

IN WAKE OF THE SUN NIGHT SYSTEM...A BRIEF PERIOD OF TROUGHING ALOFT
AFFECTS UPR LAKES ON TUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH MOST OF
THE COLD AIR REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OVR MAINLY QUEBEC. MAYBE
SCT-BKN SC CLOUDS OVR THE EAST CWA CLOSER TO THERMAL TROUGH...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. UPPER RIDGE/DRY WEATHER MOVES PERSISTS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND PERHAPS MAY LINGER INTO THU. MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS NOT QUITE SETTLED ON FCST DETAILS/TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING AWAY FM
PCPN ON THU...WITH A FROPA OCCURRING THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
ECMWF IS NOT NEAR AS AGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THOUGH AND KEEPS
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. DPROG/DT OF LAST FOUR RUNS OF
GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE LAST TWO RUNS OF CANADIAN INDICATE AT
LEAST FOR NOW...THE NEW ECMWF IS A SLOW OUTLIER WTIH PCPN FOR
FRI/FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS TWEAKED GRIDS TO LOWER POPS WED
NIGHT INTO THU...BUT KEPT GRIDS IN TACT FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

WITH THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINING DRY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK LOW
PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWERING OF CLOUDS BRIEFLY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
BY LATE TONIGHT. BELIEVE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KCMX
LATE TONIGHT. ONSET OF WRLY FLOW BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO
DRYING CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW PRES THAT WILL REACH FAR SE LAKE
SUPERIOR MON MORNING. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE
UNDER 20KT TODAY THRU MONDAY MORNING. AS BUILDING HIGH OVER THE NRN
PLAINS MON DRIFTS E...NW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT
RANGE FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 20KT TUE/TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT E...A COUPLE OF LOW PRES TROFS WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA WED THRU THU. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND THE LOW PRES TROFS WILL PUSH WINDS INTO THE
15-25KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
AT TIMES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THAT PART OF THE LAKE IS
TYPICALLY FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS IN SRLY FLOW.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

000
FXUS63 KAPX 081743
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL AND MILD END TO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRODUCING A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTING TO SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1114 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

12Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE CHART SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EAST/NORTHEAST FROM A 1008MB LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA/ILLINOIS/NORTHERN INDIANA AND UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.  BAROCLINIC
LEAF DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH SOME HIGH BASED RADAR RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE WITH DRY LOW LAYERS
IN PLACE.  BAND OF CLOUDS (MOSTLY ACCAS)/RADAR ECHOES ALSO EXTENDS
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN UPPER MI...MORE
DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND NICELY SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC ZONE.
12Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS WERE DRY BELOW 600MB...WITH AN INCREASE IN RH
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.

MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...BUT OTHER THAN THAT ANOTHER WARM NOVEMBER
AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY INCLUDE:
ANJ 60(1986)/TVC 72(1896)/GLR 62(1986)/APN 69(1931)/HTL 72(1931).

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A LIMITED...NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SURFACE
LOW ITSELF WILL TRACK NE THRU NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEND TO A RATHER SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS JUST A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT
STILL KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR ERN UPR AND PORTIONS
OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN NW OF A LINE FROM ROGERS CITY TO TVC. COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY TRAVERSE OUR CWA ON MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AND MAINLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. WILL SPREAD SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND EVEN
LINGER A CHANCE INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR SE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANY REMAINING CHANCES OF PRECIP TO AN END.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO AROUND 60 NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...
BUT WILL AGAIN BE SMALL AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF OUR
CWA AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR SW TO NE TRACK THRU
WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S FOR TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU TODAY AS LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOOSE. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THIS POINT...EXPECT WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW IT. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1242 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNSET AND CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 081715
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1215 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009


.AVIATION...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA AROUND 00Z WITH JUST SOME
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.  WITH SKIES GOING BACK TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT
AND AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE...EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES TO
FORM IN HAZE AND FOG.  WITH WINDS STAYING UP...DO NOT EXPECT DENSE
FOG TO FORM.  WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED /ABSOLUTELY NO CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED/...AN
AXIS OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS LED TO SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THE FOG TO BE QUITE SHALLOW. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO BUILDING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...HELPING TO
ADVECT IN SOME DRIER SURFACE AIR. THUS...EXPECT THE FOG WILL
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER 8 AM.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP TOWARD THE MI/OH BORDER BY
15Z...THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THIS FRONT WAS
OBSERVED TO BE QUITE WEAK. THUS...EXPECTING A SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO YESTERDAY /WITH EVEN SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE/. WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE WELL INTO THE
60S. THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER WILL KEEP LOCALS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. BOTH NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SATURATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD HINDER THE DEGREE OF DECOUPLING. THUS...WILL
KEEP FOG OUT OF THE TONIGHT FORECAST AND CARRY MIN TEMPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE /MAINLY NEAR 50/.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BROAD UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AND SHARPEN TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY DROPS INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH REMAINS WEAKER
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST BY GFS/EURO TO DROP SLOWLY DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EAST INTO QUEBEC. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 69 LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTENSIFIES AND A FEW WEAK WAVES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGIN TO TRACK UP THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE WAVES
MAY ALSO SERVE TO BRIEFLY STALL THE FRONT OR AT LEAST SLOW IT DOWN A
BIT (ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT PIVOTS AND BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH
WINDS ALOFT)...THOUGH THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS IDEA THAN
THE EURO. GFS CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H500 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
BAROCLINICITY INCREASES ACROSS THE FRONT...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND WITH A PW SURGE TO AROUND AN INCH OF WATER...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FROM 9Z TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THERE TO 70 PERCENT BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...SHOWING GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT IT IS GOING TO RAIN WHILE
STILL ALLOWING A LITTLE ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO LEFT MENTION FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND THE ENTRANCE
OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL PUT A QUICK END
TO PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PER TIMING IN 00Z GFS AND EURO.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH AN INCREASE IN MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO OFFSET THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY BEFORE
FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S FOR TUESDAY (NEAR NORMAL).

STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THEY
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WILDLY WITH TIMING AND TRACK. WITH THE EURO AND
UKMET NOW LIFTING THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY...WILL KEEP
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CARRIED ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE HURON TODAY...MAINTAINING
LIGHT WINDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE WARM AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG STABILITY
OVER THE LAKE...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
LOW WILL ALLOW A STATIONARY FRONT TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ068...UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 081640
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1140 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL
DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S OR APPROACHING
70.  A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER.  AS
THE FRONT SLIPS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ALONG IT.  DUE TO THIS LOW AREAS ALONG I-94
WILL GET A BETTER CHANCE OF A SOAKING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(655 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MAIN CONCERNS WERE THE DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE AFFECTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS SWING A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
IS EXITING THE CWA...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA.

THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG HAS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE REGION.  WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST AND INCLUDE ALL ZONES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER ABOVE THE FOG...AND WITH INCREASING MIXING BY MID MORNING THE
FOG SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY.  MOST AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
ONE MILE BY 9 AM...AT THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME.  BY 10 AM THE
SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH AND REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD I-96 BY THE END OF
THE DAY.  THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.  SO WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HI CLOUDS.  TEMPS REACHED WELL
INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND I SEE NO REASON THAT WON/T HAPPEN AGAIN
TODAY...AND IT SHOULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY.
SEVERAL AREAS COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MONDAY COLD FRONT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK EVEN WEAKER AS IT INITIALLY MOVES IN.  THE
MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO BE THE MAJOR ISSUE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY BE LIMITED.  HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR
MONDAY TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDES ALONG IT.  THE GFS WAS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE WAVE...WHICH
IS SOMEWHAT ODD.  SO HAVE GONE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE NAM WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE.  WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE BUMP POPS TO LIKELY
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
ROWS OF COUNTIES.  FURTHER NORTH...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THE NORTHERN CWA WILL SEE CLEARING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHES ANY
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.  RECENT TREND IN THE HIGH RES EURO SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR LIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.  THE GFS HOWEVER FAVORS ONLY A
MARGINAL WARMUP.  THE 00Z FIM RUN DOES COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
HIGH RES EURO.  AT THIS POINT I WILL RAISE TEMPERATURE SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR THU...AND I BUMPED UP WINDS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION.  IF THE HIGH RES EURO ENDS UP RIGHT FRI
WILL BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS SATURDAY WAS THIS WEEKEND.  WE DO NOT
EDIT DAY 6 GRIDS ON THE MID SHIFT SO I LEFT THE TEMPERATURES ALONE
FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(1140 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED SINCE
FLOW AND MIXING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AS COMPARED TO EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME... IF
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT... FOG
WOULD BECOME MUCH MORE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FCST SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CLOUD DECK INTO MKG BY AROUND
12Z MONDAY MORNING (CIGS 1.5 TO 2.5 KFT AGL). THIS LOW CLOUD DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE ESE IMPACTING THE REST OF OUR TAF SITES BY
14Z-16Z MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT
ALL TAF SITES FROM DAYBREAK MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.  HOWEVER A
WARM  FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
WAVES WILL BUILD AND WE MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THIS MAY BE A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION EVENT HOWEVER.  WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN TOWARD MID DAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH WITH THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
THE I-94 CORRIDOR MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THIS SAME TIME
FRAME.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HYDRO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK MJS
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     LAURENS
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KAPX 081614
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1114 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL AND MILD END TO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRODUCING A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTING TO SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1114 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

12Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE CHART SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EAST/NORTHEAST FROM A 1008MB LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA/ILLINOIS/NORTHERN INDIANA AND UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.  BAROCLINIC
LEAF DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH SOME HIGH BASED RADAR RETURNS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE WITH DRY LOW LAYERS
IN PLACE.  BAND OF CLOUDS (MOSTLY ACCAS)/RADAR ECHOES ALSO EXTENDS
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN UPPER MI...MORE
DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND NICELY SLOPED FRONTOGENETIC ZONE.
12Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS WERE DRY BELOW 600MB...WITH AN INCREASE IN RH
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.

MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH...BUT OTHER THAN THAT ANOTHER WARM NOVEMBER
AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE
60S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY INCLUDE:
ANJ 60(1986)/TVC 72(1896)/GLR 62(1986)/APN 69(1931)/HTL 72(1931).

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A LIMITED...NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SURFACE
LOW ITSELF WILL TRACK NE THRU NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEND TO A RATHER SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS JUST A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT
STILL KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR ERN UPR AND PORTIONS
OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN NW OF A LINE FROM ROGERS CITY TO TVC. COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY TRAVERSE OUR CWA ON MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AND MAINLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. WILL SPREAD SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND EVEN
LINGER A CHANCE INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR SE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANY REMAINING CHANCES OF PRECIP TO AN END.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO AROUND 60 NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...
BUT WILL AGAIN BE SMALL AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF OUR
CWA AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR SW TO NE TRACK THRU
WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S FOR TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU TODAY AS LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOOSE. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THIS POINT...EXPECT WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW IT. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 605 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

AREAS OF SHALLOW DENSE FOG RESULTING IN PERIODIC IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO NRN LWR MICHIGAN Y AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...LOWER AND THICKEN TO A LOW VFR CIGS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND PLN AND TVC
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 081154
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
655 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL
DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S OR APPROACHING
70.  A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER.  AS
THE FRONT SLIPS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ALONG IT.  DUE TO THIS LOW AREAS ALONG I-94
WILL GET A BETTER CHANCE OF A SOAKING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(655 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MAIN CONCERNS WERE THE DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE AFFECTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS SWING A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
IS EXITING THE CWA...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA.

THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG HAS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE REGION.  WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST AND INCLUDE ALL ZONES IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER ABOVE THE FOG...AND WITH INCREASING MIXING BY MID MORNING THE
FOG SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY.  MOST AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
ONE MILE BY 9 AM...AT THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME.  BY 10 AM THE
SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH AND REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD I-96 BY THE END OF
THE DAY.  THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.  SO WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HI CLOUDS.  TEMPS REACHED WELL
INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND I SEE NO REASON THAT WON/T HAPPEN AGAIN
TODAY...AND IT SHOULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY.
SEVERAL AREAS COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MONDAY COLD FRONT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK EVEN WEAKER AS IT INITIALLY MOVES IN.  THE
MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO BE THE MAJOR ISSUE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY BE LIMITED.  HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR
MONDAY TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDES ALONG IT.  THE GFS WAS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE WAVE...WHICH
IS SOMEWHAT ODD.  SO HAVE GONE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE NAM WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE.  WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE BUMP POPS TO LIKELY
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
ROWS OF COUNTIES.  FURTHER NORTH...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THE NORTHERN CWA WILL SEE CLEARING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHES ANY
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.  RECENT TREND IN THE HIGH RES EURO SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR LIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.  THE GFS HOWEVER FAVORS ONLY A
MARGINAL WARMUP.  THE 00Z FIM RUN DOES COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
HIGH RES EURO.  AT THIS POINT I WILL RAISE TEMPERATURE SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR THU...AND I BUMPED UP WINDS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION.  IF THE HIGH RES EURO ENDS UP RIGHT FRI
WILL BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS SATURDAY WAS THIS WEEKEND.  WE DO NOT
EDIT DAY 6 GRIDS ON THE MID SHIFT SO I LEFT THE TEMPERATURES ALONE
FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(655 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST DEALS WITH TIMING THE
DEPARTURE OF THE FOG THIS MORNING.

THE DENSE FOG PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS IS VERY SHALLOW.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A BREAKUP OF THE FOG BY 13Z OR SO.  HOWEVER THE
FLOW JUST OFF THE GROUND IS EASTERLY AND THAT TYPICALLY POSES
CHALLENGES WITH THE FOGS EVENTUAL DEPARTURE.  UNFORTUNATELY NO
TAMDAR FLIGHTS TO TAKE A LOOK AT FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.  THIS
FORECAST FEATURES LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z THEN IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY 17Z.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN SOME OF THE COMPUTER
GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE FOG.

SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE FLOW AND MIXING WILL BE MUCH
STRONGER.

&&

.MARINE...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.  HOWEVER A
WARM  FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
WAVES WILL BUILD AND WE MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THIS MAY BE A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION EVENT HOWEVER.  WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN TOWARD MID DAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH WITH THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
THE I-94 CORRIDOR MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THIS SAME TIME
FRAME.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HYDRO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ENTIRE REGION THROUGH 9 AM.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK MJS
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     MJS
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KMQT 081147 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
645 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SYNOPSIS /ISSUED AT 453 AM EST/...

UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL OVR THE UPR GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
DOWNSTREAM OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVR THE WRN CONUS. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH BROAD AREA
OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SHROUD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS
BASED AT 10KFT SPREADING FM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. ABR/MPX/FGF RADARS
DO INDICATE NARROW BAND OF RETURNS FM CNTRL SD INTO WCNTRL MN. VERY
FEW SFC OBS REPORTING ANY PCPN AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER SEEN ON 00Z ABR/MPX SOUNDINGS. OVR UPR MI...SKIES
ARE CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DRIFTING ACROSS. TEMPS AWAY FM
THE LAKES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S WITH RADIAIONAL COOLING BUT NEAR
THE SHORES MIXING HAS NEVER REALLY CEASED AND TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S.

&&

.DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 453 AM EST/...

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS REMAINS MAIN INFLUENCE.
NEXT CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TODAY...INCREASING MID CLOUDS FM WEST TO EAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
290-295K SFC (H8-H6) MOVES ACROSS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCES LIFT
ON THIS MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY PCPN THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SPRINKLES FALLING FM A MID CLOUD DECK OVR THE
WEST THIS AFTN AS THERE IS SOME OMEGA PROGGED IN THE MID CLOUD
LAYER. WOULD BE EITHER SPRINKLES OR JUST VIRGA. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WENT FOR HIGHS INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS TO KEY ON FOR PCPN
POTENTIAL. RIBBON OF H8-H6 FGEN SPREADING FM THE DAKOTAS LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO TONIGHT. SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SOME SHRA WITH THIS AREA DUE TO THE FGEN/DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND
SINCE THIS IS WHERE AIR PARCELS COMING IN FM THE SOUTH WOULD HAVE
THE LONGEST TIME TO SATURATE AND PRODUCE SOME PCPN.

SECOND PCPN INSTIGATOR FOR TONIGHT IS LESS CLEAR CUT. AFTER SFC
RIDGE LIFTS OUT OF THE CWA LATER TODAY...RETURN S/SW FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSPORT HIGHER 925-850MB MOISTURE TOWARD UPR LAKES. 00Z RAOBS
QUITE SPARSE WITH H85 MOISTURE ALL THE WAY INTO NRN TX...SO HAVE
SOME DOUBTS ON MOISTURE QUALITY FOR ANY SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. SOME
HIGHER DWPNTS AT 925MB/SFC WERE NOTED AS FAR NORTH AS KS/MO THOUGH.
EXPECT INCREASING LLJ AHEAD OF DEVELOPING H85 WAVE AND WEAK SFC
FRONT. H85 WAVE MOVES INTO SW UPR MI BTWN 00Z-06Z AND HEADS EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ALSO LIFTS JUST OUT AHEAD
OF THE H85 WAVE. MAIN PCPN WITH THESE FEATURE WOULD LIKELY OCCUR AS
MAX THETA-E ADVECTION FM 925MB-850MB OCCURS ON NOSE OF LLJ.
SOUNDINGS ARE OTHERWISE FAIRLY DRY. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND LOCAL WRF
KEY ON THESE FACTORS TO FOCUS PCPN TONIGHT...BUT AM CONCERNED THAT
THERE MAY BE ONLY ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ONLY CLOUDS. OVERALL...FOR
BOTH PCPN TRIGGERS...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN FCST. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS LIMITED TO EARLY IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THIS ONLY IS
OVR THE FAR E CWA. KEPT POPS ON MONDAY LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF/ON THE WARM ASCENDING SIDE OF/ PROGGED H85-H7 DEVELOPING
FGEN RIBBON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OTHERWISE...AND HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS A BIT AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY INLAND WEST.

IN WAKE OF THE SUN NIGHT SYSTEM...A BRIEF PERIOD OF TROUGHING ALOFT
AFFECTS UPR LAKES ON TUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH MOST OF
THE COLD AIR REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OVR MAINLY QUEBEC. MAYBE
SCT-BKN SC CLOUDS OVR THE EAST CWA CLOSER TO THERMAL TROUGH...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. UPPER RIDGE/DRY WEATHER MOVES PERSISTS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND PERHAPS MAY LINGER INTO THU. MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS NOT QUITE SETTLED ON FCST DETAILS/TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING AWAY FM
PCPN ON THU...WITH A FROPA OCCURRING THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
ECMWF IS NOT NEAR AS AGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THOUGH AND KEEPS
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. DPROG/DT OF LAST FOUR RUNS OF
GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE LAST TWO RUNS OF CANADIAN INDICATE AT
LEAST FOR NOW...THE NEW ECMWF IS A SLOW OUTLIER WTIH PCPN FOR
FRI/FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS TWEAKED GRIDS TO LOWER POPS WED
NIGHT INTO THU...BUT KEPT GRIDS IN TACT FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

WITH LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINING DRY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KCMX/KSAW. WEAK LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WILL BRING SOME LOWERING OF CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. AS HIGHER SFC DWPTS ADVECT
N TONIGHT...SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP (MVFR VIS). MAY SEE STRATUS
(IFR CIG) DEVELOPMENT AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW PRES THAT WILL REACH FAR SE LAKE
SUPERIOR MON MORNING. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE
UNDER 20KT TODAY THRU MONDAY MORNING. AS BUILDING HIGH OVER THE NRN
PLAINS MON DRIFTS E...NW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT
RANGE FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 20KT TUE/TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT E...A COUPLE OF LOW PRES TROFS WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA WED THRU THU. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND THE LOW PRES TROFS WILL PUSH WINDS INTO THE
15-25KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
AT TIMES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THAT PART OF THE LAKE IS
TYPICALLY FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS IN SRLY FLOW.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

000
FXUS63 KAPX 081145
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
645 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL AND MILD END TO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRODUCING A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTING TO SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 645 AM/...TODAY

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF
MICHIGAN. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING
ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN AS SURFACE DWPTS ARE DROPPING INTO THE 20S
PER LATEST OBS. HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
MORNING THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASINGLY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF MICHIGAN. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE
FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A LIMITED...NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SURFACE
LOW ITSELF WILL TRACK NE THRU NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEND TO A RATHER SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS JUST A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT
STILL KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR ERN UPR AND PORTIONS
OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN NW OF A LINE FROM ROGERS CITY TO TVC. COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY TRAVERSE OUR CWA ON MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AND MAINLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. WILL SPREAD SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND EVEN
LINGER A CHANCE INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR SE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANY REMAINING CHANCES OF PRECIP TO AN END.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO AROUND 60 NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...
BUT WILL AGAIN BE SMALL AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF OUR
CWA AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR SW TO NE TRACK THRU
WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S FOR TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU TODAY AS LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOOSE. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THIS POINT...EXPECT WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW IT. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 605 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

AREAS OF SHALLOW DENSE FOG RESULTING IN PERIODIC IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO NRN LWR MICHIGAN Y AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...LOWER AND THICKEN TO A LOW VFR CIGS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND PLN AND TVC
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KAPX 081105
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
605 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL AND MILD END TO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRODUCING A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTING TO SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/...TODAY

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN WHERE SURFACE DWPTS ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. DWPTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
20S...THUS PRECLUDING FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOIST A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THRU 14Z...AT WHICH TIME SUNRISE AND DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD
BRING THIS RATHER SHALLOW DENSE FOG EVENT TO A CLOSE. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
MORNING THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASINGLY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF MICHIGAN. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A LIMITED...NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SURFACE
LOW ITSELF WILL TRACK NE THRU NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEND TO A RATHER SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS JUST A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT
STILL KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR ERN UPR AND PORTIONS
OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN NW OF A LINE FROM ROGERS CITY TO TVC. COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY TRAVERSE OUR CWA ON MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AND MAINLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. WILL SPREAD SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND EVEN
LINGER A CHANCE INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR SE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANY REMAINING CHANCES OF PRECIP TO AN END.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO AROUND 60 NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...
BUT WILL AGAIN BE SMALL AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF OUR
CWA AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR SW TO NE TRACK THRU
WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S FOR TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU TODAY AS LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOOSE. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THIS POINT...EXPECT WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW IT. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 605 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

AREAS OF SHALLOW DENSE FOG RESULTING IN PERIODIC IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO NRN LWR MICHIGAN Y AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE...LOWER AND THICKEN TO A LOW VFR CIGS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND PLN AND TVC
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>036-
     041-042.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 081101
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
601 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009


.AVIATION...

AVIATION CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE CENTERED ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FOG LIFTS. SATELLITE DATA WOULD SUGGEST THE FOG AROUND DETROIT AND
PONTIAC IS MUCH MORE SHALLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING WITHIN AN
HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. SATELLITE DATA AND THE DURATION OF DENSE
FOG AND FNT AND ESPECIALLY MBS INDICATES A MUCH DEEPER MOIST
LAYER. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN LIFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AT THESE
SITES THROUGH 15Z BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN IMPROVING. ONCE THE FOG
LIFTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED /ABSOLUTELY NO CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED/...AN
AXIS OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS LED TO SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THE FOG TO BE QUITE SHALLOW. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO BUILDING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...HELPING TO
ADVECT IN SOME DRIER SURFACE AIR. THUS...EXPECT THE FOG WILL
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER 8 AM.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP TOWARD THE MI/OH BORDER BY
15Z...THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THIS FRONT WAS
OBSERVED TO BE QUITE WEAK. THUS...EXPECTING A SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO YESTERDAY /WITH EVEN SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE/. WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE WELL INTO THE
60S. THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER WILL KEEP LOCALS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. BOTH NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SATURATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD HINDER THE DEGREE OF DECOUPLING. THUS...WILL
KEEP FOG OUT OF THE TONIGHT FORECAST AND CARRY MIN TEMPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE /MAINLY NEAR 50/.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BROAD UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AND SHARPEN TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY DROPS INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH REMAINS WEAKER
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST BY GFS/EURO TO DROP SLOWLY DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EAST INTO QUEBEC. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 69 LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTENSIFIES AND A FEW WEAK WAVES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGIN TO TRACK UP THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE WAVES
MAY ALSO SERVE TO BRIEFLY STALL THE FRONT OR AT LEAST SLOW IT DOWN A
BIT (ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT PIVOTS AND BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH
WINDS ALOFT)...THOUGH THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS IDEA THAN
THE EURO. GFS CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H500 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
BAROCLINICITY INCREASES ACROSS THE FRONT...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND WITH A PW SURGE TO AROUND AN INCH OF WATER...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FROM 9Z TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THERE TO 70 PERCENT BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...SHOWING GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT IT IS GOING TO RAIN WHILE
STILL ALLOWING A LITTLE ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO LEFT MENTION FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND THE ENTRANCE
OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL PUT A QUICK END
TO PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PER TIMING IN 00Z GFS AND EURO.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH AN INCREASE IN MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO OFFSET THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY BEFORE
FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S FOR TUESDAY (NEAR NORMAL).

STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THEY
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WILDLY WITH TIMING AND TRACK. WITH THE EURO AND
UKMET NOW LIFTING THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY...WILL KEEP
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CARRIED ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY.

MARINE...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE HURON TODAY...MAINTAINING
LIGHT WINDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE WARM AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG STABILITY
OVER THE LAKE...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
LOW WILL ALLOW A STATIONARY FRONT TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ068...UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 080953
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
453 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL OVR THE UPR GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
DOWNSTREAM OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVR THE WRN CONUS. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH BROAD AREA
OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS RESULTING IN SHROUD OF ALTOCU AND ALTOSTRATUS
BASED AT 10KFT SPREADING FM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. ABR/MPX/FGF RADARS
DO INDICATE NARROW BAND OF RETURNS FM CNTRL SD INTO WCNTRL MN. VERY
FEW SFC OBS REPORTING ANY PCPN AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER SEEN ON 00Z ABR/MPX SOUNDINGS. OVR UPR MI...SKIES
ARE CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DRIFTING ACROSS. TEMPS AWAY FM
THE LAKES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S WITH RADIAIONAL COOLING BUT NEAR
THE SHORES MIXING HAS NEVER REALLY CEASED AND TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS REMAINS MAIN INFLUENCE.
NEXT CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY PUSHES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

TODAY...INCREASING MID CLOUDS FM WEST TO EAST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
290-295K SFC (H8-H6) MOVES ACROSS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ENHANCES LIFT
ON THIS MOISTURE. SOUNDINGS LOOK MARGINAL FOR ANY PCPN THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT. COULD SEE SPRINKLES FALLING FM A MID CLOUD DECK OVR THE
WEST THIS AFTN AS THERE IS SOME OMEGA PROGGED IN THE MID CLOUD
LAYER. WOULD BE EITHER SPRINKLES OR JUST VIRGA. BASED ON MIXING TO
H9 WENT FOR HIGHS INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COUPLE OF MAIN AREAS TO KEY ON FOR PCPN
POTENTIAL. RIBBON OF H8-H6 FGEN SPREADING FM THE DAKOTAS LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND ONTARIO TONIGHT. SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SOME SHRA WITH THIS AREA DUE TO THE FGEN/DIVERGENCE COUPLET AND
SINCE THIS IS WHERE AIR PARCELS COMING IN FM THE SOUTH WOULD HAVE
THE LONGEST TIME TO SATURATE AND PRODUCE SOME PCPN.

SECOND PCPN INSTIGATOR FOR TONIGHT IS LESS CLEAR CUT. AFTER SFC
RIDGE LIFTS OUT OF THE CWA LATER TODAY...RETURN S/SW FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSPORT HIGHER 925-850MB MOISTURE TOWARD UPR LAKES. 00Z RAOBS
QUITE SPARSE WITH H85 MOISTURE ALL THE WAY INTO NRN TX...SO HAVE
SOME DOUBTS ON MOISTURE QUALITY FOR ANY SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. SOME
HIGHER DWPNTS AT 925MB/SFC WERE NOTED AS FAR NORTH AS KS/MO THOUGH.
EXPECT INCREASING LLJ AHEAD OF DEVELOPING H85 WAVE AND WEAK SFC
FRONT. H85 WAVE MOVES INTO SW UPR MI BTWN 00Z-06Z AND HEADS EAST OF
LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z MONDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ALSO LIFTS JUST OUT AHEAD
OF THE H85 WAVE. MAIN PCPN WITH THESE FEATURE WOULD LIKELY OCCUR AS
MAX THETA-E ADVECTION FM 925MB-850MB OCCURS ON NOSE OF LLJ.
SOUNDINGS ARE OTHERWISE FAIRLY DRY. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND LOCAL WRF
KEY ON THESE FACTORS TO FOCUS PCPN TONIGHT...BUT AM CONCERNED THAT
THERE MAY BE ONLY ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ONLY CLOUDS. OVERALL...FOR
BOTH PCPN TRIGGERS...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN FCST. BEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS LIMITED TO EARLY IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THIS ONLY IS
OVR THE FAR E CWA. KEPT POPS ON MONDAY LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF/ON THE WARM ASCENDING SIDE OF/ PROGGED H85-H7 DEVELOPING
FGEN RIBBON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT OTHERWISE...AND HAVE INCREASED
TEMPS A BIT AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY INLAND WEST.

IN WAKE OF THE SUN NIGHT SYSTEM...A BRIEF PERIOD OF TROUGHING ALOFT
AFFECTS UPR LAKES ON TUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH MOST OF
THE COLD AIR REMAINING WELL TO THE EAST OVR MAINLY QUEBEC. MAYBE
SCT-BKN SC CLOUDS OVR THE EAST CWA CLOSER TO THERMAL TROUGH...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. UPPER RIDGE/DRY WEATHER MOVES PERSISTS TUE NIGHT
INTO WED AND PERHAPS MAY LINGER INTO THU. MAJORITY OF MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS NOT QUITE SETTLED ON FCST DETAILS/TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF DO SEEM TO BE TRENDING AWAY FM
PCPN ON THU...WITH A FROPA OCCURRING THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST
ECMWF IS NOT NEAR AS AGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH THOUGH AND KEEPS
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. DPROG/DT OF LAST FOUR RUNS OF
GFS AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE LAST TWO RUNS OF CANADIAN INDICATE AT
LEAST FOR NOW...THE NEW ECMWF IS A SLOW OUTLIER WTIH PCPN FOR
FRI/FRIDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TRENDS TWEAKED GRIDS TO LOWER POPS WED
NIGHT INTO THU...BUT KEPT GRIDS IN TACT FOR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY AIR PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW PRES THAT WILL REACH FAR SE LAKE
SUPERIOR MON MORNING. WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO BE
UNDER 20KT TODAY THRU MONDAY MORNING. AS BUILDING HIGH OVER THE NRN
PLAINS MON DRIFTS E...NW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-25KT
RANGE FOR A TIME OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE MON AFTN/EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE UNDER 20KT TUE/TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE PASSES. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT E...A COUPLE OF LOW PRES TROFS WILL MOVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA WED THRU THU. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND THE LOW PRES TROFS WILL PUSH WINDS INTO THE
15-25KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS MAY REACH 20-30KT
AT TIMES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THAT PART OF THE LAKE IS
TYPICALLY FAVORED FOR STRONGER WINDS IN SRLY FLOW.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON

000
FXUS63 KGRR 080859
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL
DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S OR APPROACHING
70.  A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER.  AS
THE FRONT SLIPS INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ALONG IT.  DUE TO THIS LOW AREAS ALONG I-94
WILL GET A BETTER CHANCE OF A SOAKING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
MAIN CONCERNS WERE THE DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
THE AFFECTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS SWING A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
IS EXITING THE CWA...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE MODERATE RAIN IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA.

THIS MORNINGS FOG WAS THICKEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER WHERE VSBYS WERE AT OR BELOW A QUARTER MILE.  WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT FOG HEADLINES.  THE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER ABOVE THE FOG...AND WITH INCREASING MIXING BY MID MORNING THE
FOG SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY.  MOST AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
ONE MILE BY 9 AM...AT THE ADVISORY EXPIRATION TIME.  BY 10 AM THE
SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH AND REST OF THE DAY WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD I-96 BY THE END OF
THE DAY.  THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.  SO WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY
FORECAST...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HI CLOUDS.  TEMPS REACHED WELL
INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND I SEE NO REASON THAT WON/T HAPPEN AGAIN
TODAY...AND IT SHOULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY.
SEVERAL AREAS COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK.

THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE MONDAY COLD FRONT.  THIS SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK EVEN WEAKER AS IT INITIALLY MOVES IN.  THE
MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS TO BE THE MAJOR ISSUE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MAY BE LIMITED.  HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR
MONDAY TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF IN THE
AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDES ALONG IT.  THE GFS WAS DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE WAVE...WHICH
IS SOMEWHAT ODD.  SO HAVE GONE MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE NAM WITH
THE TIMING OF THE WAVE.  WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE BUMP POPS TO LIKELY
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
ROWS OF COUNTIES.  FURTHER NORTH...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.  WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THE NORTHERN CWA WILL SEE CLEARING LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHES ANY
RAIN OVER SOUTHERN LOWER OUT OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.  RECENT TREND IN THE HIGH RES EURO SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR LIFTING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN STARTING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.  THE GFS HOWEVER FAVORS ONLY A
MARGINAL WARMUP.  THE 00Z FIM RUN DOES COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
HIGH RES EURO.  AT THIS POINT I WILL RAISE TEMPERATURE SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR THU...AND I BUMPED UP WINDS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION.  IF THE HIGH RES EURO ENDS UP RIGHT FRI
WILL BE AT LEAST AS WARM AS SATURDAY WAS THIS WEEKEND.  WE DO NOT
EDIT DAY 6 GRIDS ON THE MID SHIFT SO I LEFT THE TEMPERATURES ALONE
FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(1155 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
I WAS CONCERNED ABOUT THE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT AS IT TURNED
OUT FOG WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE THAN I FIRST THOUGHT IT TO BE. THE
LIGHT WINDS AND THE MIXING OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR
IS CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FOG THIS EVENING NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE BUT I EXPECT IT TO SPREAD INLAND SOON. AS A RESULT TO TOOK
MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO AT LEAST IFR WITH FOG. MKG...GRR AND AZO IT
TOOK TO 1/4SM FG VV001 FOR SEVERAL HOURS (MKG HAVING IT THE LONGEST).
WITH THE FRONT STALL NEAR I-94 NOW... THERE WILL BE LIGHT WINDS INTO
MID MORNING AND WITH THE 850 MB RIDGE OVERHEAD...NOT MUCH DEEP
MIXING EITHER. SO... FOG WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WITH THE
SHALLOW SUN ANGLE IN NOVEMBER IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TOO. THE
WINDS DO NOT PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... SO BURN
OFF COULD TAKE TILL NOON. TIME WILL TELL.

ONCE THE FOG IS GONE THROUGH VFR SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL SINCE THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.  HOWEVER A
WARM  FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
WAVES WILL BUILD AND WE MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THIS MAY BE A FAIRLY SHORT DURATION EVENT HOWEVER.  WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN TOWARD MID DAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(359 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH WITH THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY COLD FRONT.
THE I-94 CORRIDOR MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THIS SAME TIME
FRAME.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HYDRO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALLEGAN COUNTY TO GRATIOT NORTHWARD THROUGH
9 AM.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KDTX 080857
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. WHILE MOISTURE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXTREMELY LIMITED /ABSOLUTELY NO CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED/...AN
AXIS OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS LED TO SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE THE FOG TO BE QUITE SHALLOW. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO BUILDING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...HELPING TO
ADVECT IN SOME DRIER SURFACE AIR. THUS...EXPECT THE FOG WILL
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER 8 AM.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP TOWARD THE MI/OH BORDER BY
15Z...THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THIS FRONT WAS
OBSERVED TO BE QUITE WEAK. THUS...EXPECTING A SIMILAR LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE TO YESTERDAY /WITH EVEN SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE/. WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE WELL INTO THE
60S. THE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS HOWEVER WILL KEEP LOCALS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. BOTH NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SATURATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD HINDER THE DEGREE OF DECOUPLING. THUS...WILL
KEEP FOG OUT OF THE TONIGHT FORECAST AND CARRY MIN TEMPS ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF GUIDANCE /MAINLY NEAR 50/.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

BROAD UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DEEPEN AND SHARPEN TUESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY DROPS INTO THE SYSTEM FROM
THE NORTH. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z NAM WHICH REMAINS WEAKER
AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...MAIN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST BY GFS/EURO TO DROP SLOWLY DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES EAST INTO QUEBEC. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS IT DROPS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 69 LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTENSIFIES AND A FEW WEAK WAVES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGIN TO TRACK UP THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE WAVES
MAY ALSO SERVE TO BRIEFLY STALL THE FRONT OR AT LEAST SLOW IT DOWN A
BIT (ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT PIVOTS AND BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH
WINDS ALOFT)...THOUGH THE GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THIS IDEA THAN
THE EURO. GFS CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF
FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H500 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
BAROCLINICITY INCREASES ACROSS THE FRONT...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND WITH A PW SURGE TO AROUND AN INCH OF WATER...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FROM 9Z TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCREASED POPS THERE TO 70 PERCENT BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...SHOWING GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT IT IS GOING TO RAIN WHILE
STILL ALLOWING A LITTLE ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO LEFT MENTION FOR THUNDER IN THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST...THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND THE ENTRANCE
OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MICHIGAN WILL PUT A QUICK END
TO PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PER TIMING IN 00Z GFS AND EURO.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN MILD...WITH AN INCREASE IN MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO OFFSET THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY BEFORE
FALLING BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S FOR TUESDAY (NEAR NORMAL).

STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO HOLD INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH THEY
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WILDLY WITH TIMING AND TRACK. WITH THE EURO AND
UKMET NOW LIFTING THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY...WILL KEEP
INHERITED FORECAST WHICH CARRIED ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE HURON TODAY...MAINTAINING
LIGHT WINDS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM EAST-SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE WARM AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG STABILITY
OVER THE LAKE...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
LOW WILL ALLOW A STATIONARY FRONT TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY
AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1221 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

AVIATION...

A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA AND HAS BEEN VERY
EFFECTIVE IN TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND WINDS GO CALM...VISIBILITIES TO OUR NORTHWEST HAVE
QUICKLY DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE IN FOG. A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY BE HELPING TO
KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE FOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS. HAVE ADDED
FOG TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
HOLD ALL NIGHT AS SOME UPSTREAM SITES HAVE FLUCTUATED WITH FOG
LIFTING INTO A STRATUS DECK. HAVE KEPT VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR RANGE
FOR THE DETROIT AIRPORTS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN HIGHER
AND THEY ARE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ENHANCED TROFFING ASSOCIATED WITH
LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON.

AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE GOOD ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-
     MIZ055...UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....KEC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 080810
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
310 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A
TRANQUIL AND MILD END TO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
INTO QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRODUCING A
VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTING TO SLOWLY WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/...TODAY

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THRU THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS ALL OF
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN LWR
MICHIGAN WHERE SURFACE DWPTS ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE 30S NORTH TO
MID 40S SOUTH. DWPTS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
20S...THUS PRECLUDING FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL HOIST A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THRU 14Z...AT WHICH TIME SUNRISE AND DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD
BRING THIS RATHER SHALLOW DENSE FOG EVENT TO A CLOSE. MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
MORNING THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASINGLY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF MICHIGAN. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN
ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING A LIMITED...NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. SURFACE
LOW ITSELF WILL TRACK NE THRU NRN WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEND TO A RATHER SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS JUST A BIT FOR TONIGHT...BUT
STILL KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR ERN UPR AND PORTIONS
OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN NW OF A LINE FROM ROGERS CITY TO TVC. COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY TRAVERSE OUR CWA ON MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AND MAINLY ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF. WILL SPREAD SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND EVEN
LINGER A CHANCE INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FAR SE. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING ANY REMAINING CHANCES OF PRECIP TO AN END.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO AROUND 60 NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOW TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO
PRECIP EXPECTED. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...
BUT WILL AGAIN BE SMALL AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF OUR
CWA AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR SW TO NE TRACK THRU
WISCONSIN AND WRN UPR MICHIGAN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S FOR TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 310 AM/

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU TODAY AS LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER LOOSE. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THIS POINT...EXPECT WINDS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW IT. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1155 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

FOG A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT WAS NOT ABLE TO BRING IN ENOUGH DRY AIR BEFORE
WINDS DECOUPLED. CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD LED TO RAPID COOLING AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SAID FOG WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW...AS AIR JUST OFF THE
DECK IS STILL QUITE DRY. BUT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
PLN...TVC SHOULD BECOME IFR...AND APN MVFR. ALL SITES WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN MVFR CLOUD DECK MAY TRY TO WORK LATE SUNDAY
EVENING...FOR NOW JUST HAVE SCT CLOUDS.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016>036-
     041-042.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 080521
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1221 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009


.AVIATION...

A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA AND HAS BEEN VERY
EFFECTIVE IN TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND WINDS GO CALM...VISIBILITIES TO OUR NORTHWEST HAVE
QUICKLY DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE IN FOG. A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY BE HELPING TO
KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER MOISTURE FOR DOWNSTREAM AREAS. HAVE ADDED
FOG TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
HOLD ALL NIGHT AS SOME UPSTREAM SITES HAVE FLUCTUATED WITH FOG
LIFTING INTO A STRATUS DECK. HAVE KEPT VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR RANGE
FOR THE DETROIT AIRPORTS WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN HIGHER
AND THEY ARE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ENHANCED TROFFING ASSOCIATED WITH
LAKE MICHIGAN/LAKE HURON.

AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE GOOD ON SUNDAY WITH
THE POSSIBILITY FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT BRINGS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY
WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT GETS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT MAINTAINING CLEAR
SKIES AND PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.  DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS WILL RADIATE DOWN TO THE DEW POINT WITH
PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND THE AREA BY DAWN.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE TO BEGIN SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.  SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING OF THIS MILD RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.  MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING BRINGS DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 50F.  WEAK BROAD ASCENT MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT MUCH LIKE
TODAY MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERPLAYING THIS DEVELOPMENT SO WILL LEAN
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A TREND FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE EVENING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOWN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHEAR EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AMPLIFYING AS IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY.  MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
PHASING OF THIS FLOW STILL CREATING A BROADER SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS
WITHIN THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.  LATEST NAM NOW BACK TO A
LESS-PHASED/ WEAKER/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DRIVING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY.  THE GFS HOLDS THE OPPOSITE END OF THE
SPECTRUM IN DEPICTING A MUCH SLOWER/DEEPER SYSTEM...WITH STRONG
FRONTAL DYNAMICS LARGELY IMPACTING THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE POOR CONTINUITY OF THESE MODELS...FAVOR GOES TO
THE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE DETAILS.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/
DEFORMATION IN THE PRESENCE OF GOOD JET COUPLING.  MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DISPLAY AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
LAYER.  OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER NOW...WHICH
WOULD EASILY SUPPORT AN AXIS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DURING THIS TIME.  THE POOR
CONSENSUS ON TIMING WILL PREVENT POPS FROM BEING ELEVATED BEYOND
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.  AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM
THIS WEEKEND UNDER PERSISTENT PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO ONE
FINAL DAY OF LOW-MID 60S.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL /AROUND 50/ BY
TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE.  LOW LEVEL GRADIENT MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...BUT THE DEGREE OF DRYING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF AN ALREADY COOL RESIDENT AIRMASS WOULD STILL
SUPPORT MAINTAINING LOWS BELOW SUGGESTED MODEL GUIDANCE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  SLIGHT RESPONSE IN THE THERMAL FIELDS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.  LIMITED MIXING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING SUNNY
CONDITIONS WHILE KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY RELATIVELY IN
CHECK /HIGHS MID 40S TO AROUND 50F/.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND CARRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  STRONG SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD DOWNSTREAM.  THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST AT THIS TIMESCALE WITH REGARD TO THE SPECIFICS OF THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION.  A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES SOUTHEAST LOWER MI WILL
RESIDE WITHIN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AS A MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MISS VALLEY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL.  ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL REMAIN LARGELY NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY DURING
THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE
DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE.  NEXT SHOT AT WIND ISSUES ON THE WATERS WILL COME TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KEC
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 080520
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1220 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING WILL STALL IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION LATE TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(1220 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT THE
SERN CWA.  FOG CONTINUES TO FORM AND THICKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND.  LITTLE MIXING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SO CAN NOT ENVISION
THAT THE FOG WILL IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES GOT A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY DESPITE LOW
MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 900 MB. HAVE KEPT THAT IN MIND FOR
SUNDAY/S HIGH TEMP FCST AND WENT MID 60S AGAIN.

LOW CLOUDS NEVER REALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY SO
HAVE WENT WITH AN OPTIMISTIC SKY FCST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT
SAID... THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY YET... ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH.

THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER THAN THE GFS IN PUSHING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS IS ALSO MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF IN RESPONSE TO NARROW BUT STRONG RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POST FRONTAL FGEN
BANDS ARE VERY TOUGH TO NAIL IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE... SO FOR NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS MONDAY
NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM ARE DETERMINING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHCS ON TUE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND HOW FAST TO
BRING IN PCPN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THESE PCPN
CHCS...MOST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY AND MILD.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME RAIN BACK IN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TUE
MORNING. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM TUE MORNING. THE
FIRST STRONGER TROUGH IN THE SERIES WILL BE MOVING EXITING THE STATE
DURING THE DAY ON TUE. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING TIMING OF THE WAVE...BUT ALL LINGER PCPN INTO AT LEAST
PART OF TUE. WE BELIEVE THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER EURO AND 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WILL END PCPN BY TUE AFTERNOON.

A FAIRLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED AT LEAST LATE TUE
THROUGH THU NIGHT...IF NOT INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER JET SPLITS AND
TAKES SOME ENERGY NORTH. RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
US AND ALLOW FOR THE MILD WX.

UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE PICTURE AROUND FRI AND INTO SAT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. GFS HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA UNTIL NEXT SAT...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EURO. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A SAT FRONTAL
TIMING ALSO. NEW 12Z EURO HAS SPED THE FRONT UP AS THE NRN ENERGY
THAT SPLITS IS SHOWN TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND MAINTAIN THE DRY FCST FOR FRI...AND ADD
IN RAIN FOR SAT. THIS COULD EVEN BE EARLY IF THE TREND FOR THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH IS TO CLOSE OFF MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(1155 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
I WAS CONCERNED ABOUT THE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT AS IT TURNED
OUT FOG WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE THAN I FIRST THOUGHT IT TO BE. THE
LIGHT WINDS AND THE MIXING OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR
IS CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FOG THIS EVENING NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE BUT I EXPECT IT TO SPREAD INLAND SOON. AS A RESULT TO TOOK
MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO AT LEAST IFR WITH FOG. MKG...GRR AND AZO IT
TOOK TO 1/4SM FG VV001 FOR SEVERAL HOURS (MKG HAVING IT THE LONGEST).
WITH THE FRONT STALL NEAR I-94 NOW... THERE WILL BE LIGHT WINDS INTO
MID MORNING AND WITH THE 850 MB RIDGE OVERHEAD...NOT MUCH DEEP
MIXING EITHER. SO... FOG WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WITH THE
SHALLOW SUN ANGLE IN NOVEMBER IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TOO. THE
WINDS DO NOT PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... SO BURN
OFF COULD TAKE TILL NOON. TIME WILL TELL.

ONCE THE FOG IS GONE THROUGH VFR SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL SINCE THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
GRADIENT IS RELAXING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING IN. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SOUTH FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
NARROW BAND OF QPF UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HYDRO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALLEGAN COUNTY TO GRATIOT NORTHWARD THROUGH
9 AM.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     MEADE
SHORT TERM:   MEADE JK
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE

000
FXUS63 KMQT 080507 AAB
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1207 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)... /ISSUED AT 400 PM EST/

A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH MOST PLACES REACHING INTO
THE 60S AND EVEN 70 IN SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE AREAS LIKE ESC/MNM.
IN ADDITION VERY LOW DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN REALIZED BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW HAVE INCLUDED ONLY PATCHY FOG MENTION SINCE AIRMASS IS SO
DRY...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WITH GRADIENT FLOW
REMAINING COUPLED OVER NORTHWEST CWA LEFT FOG OUT THERE. IN ADDITION
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS TO EASILY REACH INTO THE
20S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER WHERE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS END
UP VERIFY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT..ELSEWHERE
EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/LOW CPDS ENTERS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
PER 310K SURFACE ANALYSIS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPR
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. UPR DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR
JET OVER ONTARIO AND ASSOC WEAK FGEN FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR NOW WITH
HIGHEST POPS EAST (40 PCT) CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING.

MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC WAVE GETTING KICKED EWD MON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS/SCNTRL CANADA. KEPT ONLY LINGERING CHC
POPS EAST MON MORNING ALONG EXITING SFC BOUNDARY. AS AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE ONLY
WEAK CAA WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -2C WHICH WON`T BE COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT PCPN. SO...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MON NIGHT.

MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND YIELD DRY WX TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT E ON WED AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS E THRU CNTRL CANADA. THIS SHORTWAVE STAYS WELL TO
THE N OF THE AREA PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND GIVEN SFC RDGG
HOLDING STRONG...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO WED. INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NRN PLAINS WILL WARRANT CHC POPS FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST WED
NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA ON THU. MODELS
INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THU
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL PROPEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUED CHC
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGE
IN THEIR SOLNS BY DAY 7. THE 12Z GFS LIFTS A DEEPER WAVE AND ASSOC
SFC LOW INTO THE WRN FCST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MID-LVL RDGG
BUILDING IN FM THE WEST. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY
AND RESEMBLES MORE THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS DECIDED TO GO
ALONG WITH ITS SOLN AND KEEP SAT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY AIR PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM WISCONSIN TO THE EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY EVENING AND REMAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFT EAST...EXPECT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...PEARSON

000
FXUS63 KGRR 080454
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING WILL STALL IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION LATE TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(956 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
WILL ADD FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS ARE COOLING
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM.  THE FOG COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH LESSER FOG IN THE SE AS THE
AIR IS DRIER.

TEMPERATURES GOT A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY DESPITE LOW
MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 900 MB. HAVE KEPT THAT IN MIND FOR
SUNDAY/S HIGH TEMP FCST AND WENT MID 60S AGAIN.

LOW CLOUDS NEVER REALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY SO
HAVE WENT WITH AN OPTIMISTIC SKY FCST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT
SAID... THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY YET... ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH.

THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER THAN THE GFS IN PUSHING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS IS ALSO MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF IN RESPONSE TO NARROW BUT STRONG RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POST FRONTAL FGEN
BANDS ARE VERY TOUGH TO NAIL IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE... SO FOR NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS MONDAY
NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM ARE DETERMINING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHCS ON TUE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND HOW FAST TO
BRING IN PCPN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THESE PCPN
CHCS...MOST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY AND MILD.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME RAIN BACK IN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TUE
MORNING. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM TUE MORNING. THE
FIRST STRONGER TROUGH IN THE SERIES WILL BE MOVING EXITING THE STATE
DURING THE DAY ON TUE. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING TIMING OF THE WAVE...BUT ALL LINGER PCPN INTO AT LEAST
PART OF TUE. WE BELIEVE THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER EURO AND 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WILL END PCPN BY TUE AFTERNOON.

A FAIRLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED AT LEAST LATE TUE
THROUGH THU NIGHT...IF NOT INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER JET SPLITS AND
TAKES SOME ENERGY NORTH. RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
US AND ALLOW FOR THE MILD WX.

UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE PICTURE AROUND FRI AND INTO SAT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. GFS HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA UNTIL NEXT SAT...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EURO. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A SAT FRONTAL
TIMING ALSO. NEW 12Z EURO HAS SPED THE FRONT UP AS THE NRN ENERGY
THAT SPLITS IS SHOWN TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND MAINTAIN THE DRY FCST FOR FRI...AND ADD
IN RAIN FOR SAT. THIS COULD EVEN BE EARLY IF THE TREND FOR THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH IS TO CLOSE OFF MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(1155 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
I WAS CONCERNED ABOUT THE FOG EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT AS IT TURNED
OUT FOG WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE THAN I FIRST THOUGHT IT TO BE. THE
LIGHT WINDS AND THE MIXING OF THE COLDER AIR WITH THE MORE MOIST AIR
IS CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FOG THIS EVENING NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE BUT I EXPECT IT TO SPREAD INLAND SOON. AS A RESULT TO TOOK
MOST OF THE TAF SITES TO AT LEAST IFR WITH FOG. MKG...GRR AND AZO IT
TOOK TO 1/4SM FG VV001 FOR SEVERAL HOURS (MKG HAVING IT THE LONGEST).
WITH THE FRONT STALL NEAR I-94 NOW... THERE WILL BE LIGHT WINDS INTO
MID MORNING AND WITH THE 850 MB RIDGE OVERHEAD...NOT MUCH DEEP
MIXING EITHER. SO... FOG WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WITH THE
SHALLOW SUN ANGLE IN NOVEMBER IT WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TOO. THE
WINDS DO NOT PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... SO BURN
OFF COULD TAKE TILL NOON. TIME WILL TELL.

ONCE THE FOG IS GONE THROUGH VFR SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL SINCE THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
GRADIENT IS RELAXING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING IN. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SOUTH FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
NARROW BAND OF QPF UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HYDRO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     MEADE
SHORT TERM:   MEADE JK
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE

000
FXUS63 KAPX 080453
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1155 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/

THE WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WERE COURTESY OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BARELY
NOTICED TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN BEHIND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...
CAUSING THE COLD FRONT TO LIFT BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS LOW...WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 927 PM/...TONIGHT

AN UNUSUALLY QUIET NOV NIGHT. SKIES ARE CLEAR. COLD FRONT IS ALREADY
PRETTY MUCH A NON-ENTITY...AND APPEARS TO BE IN PIECES. IT CLEARED
EASTERN UPPER MI AND THE STRAITS REGION...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT NO REAL SIGN OF ANY INROADS IN NORTHERN
LOWER...WHERE DEWIES HOVER IN THE 40S (EXCEPT WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS DRAGGED THEM LOWER). THIS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SOME
LOCALIZED FOG. VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...
BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLING...NOT QUITE SURE WE/LL SEE ENOUGH
MIXING TO ELIMINATE SHALLOW GROUND FOG (THOUGH SHOULD NOT SEE WORSE
THAN THAT). WILL ADD A TOUCH OF FOG.

HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS/DEWIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS VARY
CONSIDERABLY RIGHT NOW (37 IN GRAYLING...52 IN TVC) AND THE RANGE
WILL REMAIN QUITE WIDE.

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST...REMAINS A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OVER THE
STATE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND
MID LEVEL MSTR OVER NRN MI THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
50 PCT. HOWEVER MSTR RETURN INTO THE NRN LAKES INCREASES BY
EVENING...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB DEW PTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0Z OVER EAST UPPER BY
00Z MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 4C OVER NRN LOWER AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO THE STRAITS. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME MORNING
SUN SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT REMAINING DRY THRU THE
AFTN. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING 60 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF
NRN LOWER AS A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH TO THE STRAITS...WILL
MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST UPPER. PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 850MB DEW PTS INCREASING TO 6C OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
3C OVER EAST UPPER...WHILE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MSTR
BTWN 750/500MB. BEST AND QUICKEST MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASE OVER EAST
UPPER AROUND 06Z...AND OVER NRN LOWER AFT 06Z MONDAY BUT REMAINING
LIMITED. LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPLIED BY UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120KT 300MB JET SLIDES OVER NRN MI. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
TREND OF LOW POPS OVER EAST UPPER AND THE WRN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LOWS WILL BE ABT
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HELPED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM...GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S (NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE AROUND 29 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NRN MI).

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WILL MENTION A SMALL CHC OF POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
SWEEPS OVER THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
WITH MSTR AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO
EXIT SE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH
PUSHES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD OVER THE WRN
LAKES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE SFC FEATURE PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
DRIER AIR AND COOLER 850MB TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE NRN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RESETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERALL WILL
LINGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SRN/SE CWA THROUGH THE
MONDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDS OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOWER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE NRN
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE 500MB TROUGH TUESDAY PUSHES
EAST AND UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH SFC AND UPPER
RIDGING CONVERGING OVER THE STATE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB. TUESDAY
HOWEVER...WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF MSTR IN
MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO 500MB TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE
NRN LAKES. LAKES EFFECTS WILL BE MARGINAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C WHILE NRN LAKE MI WATER TEMPS LINGER
AROUND 8C/9C. WINDS TUESDAY BTWN N/NW HOWEVER 850/500MB RH DRIES TO
40/50PCT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL MENTION SOME LAKES CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER
REMAINING DRY. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN
RESPONSE TO COOLER 850MB TEMPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THURSDAY...
WHILE A 500MB LOW MOVING OVER CENTRAL CANADA SWEEPS A TROUGH OVER
THE LAKES SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
LAKES EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE STORM
SYSTEMS PUSH INTO SRN MI BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NRN
LAKES DIFFICULT THRU THE PD DUE TO LATEST PATTERNS AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN
THE 30S.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/

HAVE CANCELLED ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS/WAVES HAVE
SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN THE NORTHERN LAKE MI BUOY HAS
WAVES OF JUST 3FT. ONLY REAL CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS WHITEFISH
PT...WHICH IS GUSTING INTO THE LOW 20S KTS. BUT THE WEST FETCH
SHIELDS THE BAY ITSELF FROM THE THE BETTER WINDS/WAVES.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1155 PM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

FOG A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AS THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT WAS NOT ABLE TO BRING IN ENOUGH DRY AIR BEFORE
WINDS DECOUPLED. CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD LED TO RAPID COOLING AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT. SAID FOG WILL BE RATHER SHALLOW...AS AIR JUST OFF THE
DECK IS STILL QUITE DRY. BUT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
PLN...TVC SHOULD BECOME IFR...AND APN MVFR. ALL SITES WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN MVFR CLOUD DECK MAY TRY TO WORK LATE SUNDAY
EVENING...FOR NOW JUST HAVE SCT CLOUDS.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KAPX 080312
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1012 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/

THE WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WERE COURTESY OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BARELY
NOTICED TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN BEHIND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...
CAUSING THE COLD FRONT TO LIFT BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS LOW...WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 927 PM/...TONIGHT

AN UNUSUALLY QUIET NOV NIGHT. SKIES ARE CLEAR. COLD FRONT IS ALREADY
PRETTY MUCH A NON-ENTITY...AND APPEARS TO BE IN PIECES. IT CLEARED
EASTERN UPPER MI AND THE STRAITS REGION...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT NO REAL SIGN OF ANY INROADS IN NORTHERN
LOWER...WHERE DEWIES HOVER IN THE 40S (EXCEPT WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS DRAGGED THEM LOWER). THIS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SOME
LOCALIZED FOG. VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...
BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLING...NOT QUITE SURE WE/LL SEE ENOUGH
MIXING TO ELIMINATE SHALLOW GROUND FOG (THOUGH SHOULD NOT SEE WORSE
THAN THAT). WILL ADD A TOUCH OF FOG.

HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS/DEWIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS VARY
CONSIDERABLY RIGHT NOW (37 IN GRAYLING...52 IN TVC) AND THE RANGE
WILL REMAIN QUITE WIDE.

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST...REMAINS A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OVER THE
STATE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND
MID LEVEL MSTR OVER NRN MI THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
50 PCT. HOWEVER MSTR RETURN INTO THE NRN LAKES INCREASES BY
EVENING...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB DEW PTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0Z OVER EAST UPPER BY
00Z MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 4C OVER NRN LOWER AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO THE STRAITS. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME MORNING
SUN SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT REMAINING DRY THRU THE
AFTN. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING 60 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF
NRN LOWER AS A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH TO THE STRAITS...WILL
MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST UPPER. PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 850MB DEW PTS INCREASING TO 6C OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
3C OVER EAST UPPER...WHILE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MSTR
BTWN 750/500MB. BEST AND QUICKEST MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASE OVER EAST
UPPER AROUND 06Z...AND OVER NRN LOWER AFT 06Z MONDAY BUT REMAINING
LIMITED. LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPLIED BY UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120KT 300MB JET SLIDES OVER NRN MI. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
TREND OF LOW POPS OVER EAST UPPER AND THE WRN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LOWS WILL BE ABT
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HELPED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM...GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S (NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE AROUND 29 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NRN MI).

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WILL MENTION A SMALL CHC OF POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
SWEEPS OVER THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
WITH MSTR AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO
EXIT SE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH
PUSHES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD OVER THE WRN
LAKES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE SFC FEATURE PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
DRIER AIR AND COOLER 850MB TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE NRN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RESETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERALL WILL
LINGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SRN/SE CWA THROUGH THE
MONDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDS OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOWER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE NRN
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE 500MB TROUGH TUESDAY PUSHES
EAST AND UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH SFC AND UPPER
RIDGING CONVERGING OVER THE STATE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB. TUESDAY
HOWEVER...WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF MSTR IN
MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO 500MB TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE
NRN LAKES. LAKES EFFECTS WILL BE MARGINAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C WHILE NRN LAKE MI WATER TEMPS LINGER
AROUND 8C/9C. WINDS TUESDAY BTWN N/NW HOWEVER 850/500MB RH DRIES TO
40/50PCT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL MENTION SOME LAKES CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER
REMAINING DRY. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN
RESPONSE TO COOLER 850MB TEMPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THURSDAY...
WHILE A 500MB LOW MOVING OVER CENTRAL CANADA SWEEPS A TROUGH OVER
THE LAKES SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
LAKES EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE STORM
SYSTEMS PUSH INTO SRN MI BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NRN
LAKES DIFFICULT THRU THE PD DUE TO LATEST PATTERNS AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN
THE 30S.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/

HAVE CANCELLED ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS/WAVES HAVE
SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN THE NORTHERN LAKE MI BUOY HAS
WAVES OF JUST 3FT. ONLY REAL CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS WHITEFISH
PT...WHICH IS GUSTING INTO THE LOW 20S KTS. BUT THE WEST FETCH
SHIELDS THE BAY ITSELF FROM THE THE BETTER WINDS/WAVES.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

VFR...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG. WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THRU THE
AREA WILL HAVE ALMOST NO IMPACT ON OUR WX. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. PLN WILL DEAL
WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS AT TIMES.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 080256
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
956 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING WILL STALL IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION LATE TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(956 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
WILL ADD FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS ARE COOLING
TOWARD THE DEWPOINT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM.  THE FOG COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH LESSER FOG IN THE SE AS THE
AIR IS DRIER.

TEMPERATURES GOT A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY DESPITE LOW
MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 900 MB. HAVE KEPT THAT IN MIND FOR
SUNDAY/S HIGH TEMP FCST AND WENT MID 60S AGAIN.

LOW CLOUDS NEVER REALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY SO
HAVE WENT WITH AN OPTIMISTIC SKY FCST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT
SAID... THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY YET... ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH.

THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER THAN THE GFS IN PUSHING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS IS ALSO MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF IN RESPONSE TO NARROW BUT STRONG RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POST FRONTAL FGEN
BANDS ARE VERY TOUGH TO NAIL IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE... SO FOR NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS MONDAY
NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM ARE DETERMINING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHCS ON TUE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND HOW FAST TO
BRING IN PCPN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THESE PCPN
CHCS...MOST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY AND MILD.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME RAIN BACK IN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TUE
MORNING. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM TUE MORNING. THE
FIRST STRONGER TROUGH IN THE SERIES WILL BE MOVING EXITING THE STATE
DURING THE DAY ON TUE. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING TIMING OF THE WAVE...BUT ALL LINGER PCPN INTO AT LEAST
PART OF TUE. WE BELIEVE THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER EURO AND 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WILL END PCPN BY TUE AFTERNOON.

A FAIRLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED AT LEAST LATE TUE
THROUGH THU NIGHT...IF NOT INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER JET SPLITS AND
TAKES SOME ENERGY NORTH. RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
US AND ALLOW FOR THE MILD WX.

UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE PICTURE AROUND FRI AND INTO SAT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. GFS HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA UNTIL NEXT SAT...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EURO. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A SAT FRONTAL
TIMING ALSO. NEW 12Z EURO HAS SPED THE FRONT UP AS THE NRN ENERGY
THAT SPLITS IS SHOWN TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND MAINTAIN THE DRY FCST FOR FRI...AND ADD
IN RAIN FOR SAT. THIS COULD EVEN BE EARLY IF THE TREND FOR THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH IS TO CLOSE OFF MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(624 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL BUT I WENT WITH THE IDEA OF VFR CIGS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...I DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF LIGHT FOG
TOWARD MORNING.

OVERNIGHT THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEW POINTS NEAR 925 BY BY 06Z WILL BE BELOW
0C OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES... IT IS HARD TO SEE HOW ANY CLOUDS
COULD FORM. THAT WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE.

EVEN SO...THE MVFR VSBY TOWARD SUNRISE MAKES SENSE SINCE SURFACE DEW
POINTS DID GET PUSHED UP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA THEN STALLING JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND WITH 850 MB
RIDGE OVERHEAD TOO...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND
THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AROUND. THE LONGER
NIGHTS...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR SOME LIGHT
FOG.

THE BIGGER QUESTION COMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT TURNS AROUND
AND HEADS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE IS A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET (40
KNOTS) AIMED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON PUSHING
5C DEW POINTS...IN THE 900 TO 800 MB LAYER... NORTHWARD INTO THE
COOLER AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
THE 950 TO 900 MB LAYER FROM THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD FORM BY 18Z... BUT THE CASE FOR THIS IS STRONGER NORTH OF
MKG. SO FOR NOW I WENT WITH THAT IDEA AND AM JUST FORECASTING CIRRUS
CLOUDS. TIME WILL TELL ON THIS.

&&

.MARINE...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
GRADIENT IS RELAXING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING IN. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SOUTH FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
NARROW BAND OF QPF UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HYDRO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     MEADE
SHORT TERM:   MEADE JK
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE

000
FXUS63 KAPX 080228
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
927 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/

THE WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WERE COURTESY OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BARELY
NOTICED TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN BEHIND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...
CAUSING THE COLD FRONT TO LIFT BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS LOW...WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 927 PM/...TONIGHT

AN UNUSUALLY QUIET NOV NIGHT. SKIES ARE CLEAR. COLD FRONT IS ALREADY
PRETTY MUCH A NON-ENTITY...AND APPEARS TO BE IN PIECES. IT CLEARED
EASTERN UPPER MI AND THE STRAITS REGION...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT NO REAL SIGN OF ANY INROADS IN NORTHERN
LOWER...WHERE DEWIES HOVER IN THE 40S (EXCEPT WHERE RADIATIONAL
COOLING HAS DRAGGED THEM LOWER). THIS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SOME
LOCALIZED FOG. VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...
BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLING...NOT QUITE SURE WE/LL SEE ENOUGH
MIXING TO ELIMINATE SHALLOW GROUND FOG (THOUGH SHOULD NOT SEE WORSE
THAN THAT). WILL ADD A TOUCH OF FOG.

HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS/DEWIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS VARY
CONSIDERABLY RIGHT NOW (37 IN GRAYLING...52 IN TVC) AND THE RANGE
WILL REMAIN QUITE WIDE.

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST...REMAINS A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OVER THE
STATE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND
MID LEVEL MSTR OVER NRN MI THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
50 PCT. HOWEVER MSTR RETURN INTO THE NRN LAKES INCREASES BY
EVENING...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB DEW PTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0Z OVER EAST UPPER BY
00Z MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 4C OVER NRN LOWER AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO THE STRAITS. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME MORNING
SUN SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT REMAINING DRY THRU THE
AFTN. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING 60 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF
NRN LOWER AS A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH TO THE STRAITS...WILL
MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST UPPER. PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 850MB DEW PTS INCREASING TO 6C OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
3C OVER EAST UPPER...WHILE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MSTR
BTWN 750/500MB. BEST AND QUICKEST MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASE OVER EAST
UPPER AROUND 06Z...AND OVER NRN LOWER AFT 06Z MONDAY BUT REMAINING
LIMITED. LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPLIED BY UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120KT 300MB JET SLIDES OVER NRN MI. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
TREND OF LOW POPS OVER EAST UPPER AND THE WRN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LOWS WILL BE ABT
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HELPED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM...GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S (NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE AROUND 29 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NRN MI).

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WILL MENTION A SMALL CHC OF POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
SWEEPS OVER THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
WITH MSTR AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO
EXIT SE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH
PUSHES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD OVER THE WRN
LAKES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE SFC FEATURE PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
DRIER AIR AND COOLER 850MB TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE NRN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RESETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERALL WILL
LINGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SRN/SE CWA THROUGH THE
MONDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDS OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOWER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE NRN
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE 500MB TROUGH TUESDAY PUSHES
EAST AND UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH SFC AND UPPER
RIDGING CONVERGING OVER THE STATE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB. TUESDAY
HOWEVER...WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF MSTR IN
MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO 500MB TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE
NRN LAKES. LAKES EFFECTS WILL BE MARGINAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C WHILE NRN LAKE MI WATER TEMPS LINGER
AROUND 8C/9C. WINDS TUESDAY BTWN N/NW HOWEVER 850/500MB RH DRIES TO
40/50PCT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL MENTION SOME LAKES CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER
REMAINING DRY. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN
RESPONSE TO COOLER 850MB TEMPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THURSDAY...
WHILE A 500MB LOW MOVING OVER CENTRAL CANADA SWEEPS A TROUGH OVER
THE LAKES SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
LAKES EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE STORM
SYSTEMS PUSH INTO SRN MI BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NRN
LAKES DIFFICULT THRU THE PD DUE TO LATEST PATTERNS AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN
THE 30S.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REDEVELOPING OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
SCA TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVR NRN MI NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WRN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER
THE ERN LAKES MONDAY...AS THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE NRN LAKES.

SWR

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 635 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

VFR. WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THRU THE AREA WILL HAVE ALMOST NO
IMPACT ON OUR WX. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
     344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KMQT 072350
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
645 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH MOST PLACES REACHING INTO
THE 60S AND EVEN 70 IN SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE AREAS LIKE ESC/MNM.
IN ADDITION VERY LOW DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN REALIZED BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW HAVE INCLUDED ONLY PATCHY FOG MENTION SINCE AIRMASS IS SO
DRY...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WITH GRADIENT FLOW
REMAINING COUPLED OVER NORTHWEST CWA LEFT FOG OUT THERE. IN ADDITION
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS TO EASILY REACH INTO THE
20S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER WHERE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS END
UP VERIFY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT..ELSEWHERE
EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/LOW CPDS ENTERS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
PER 310K SURFACE ANALYSIS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPR
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. UPR DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR
JET OVER ONTARIO AND ASSOC WEAK FGEN FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR NOW WITH
HIGHEST POPS EAST (40 PCT) CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING.

MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC WAVE GETTING KICKED EWD MON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS/SCNTRL CANADA. KEPT ONLY LINGERING CHC
POPS EAST MON MORNING ALONG EXITING SFC BOUNDARY. AS AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE ONLY
WEAK CAA WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -2C WHICH WON`T BE COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT PCPN. SO...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MON NIGHT.

MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND YIELD DRY WX TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT E ON WED AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS E THRU CNTRL CANADA. THIS SHORTWAVE STAYS WELL TO
THE N OF THE AREA PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND GIVEN SFC RDGG
HOLDING STRONG...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO WED. INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NRN PLAINS WILL WARRANT CHC POPS FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST WED
NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA ON THU. MODELS
INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THU
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL PROPEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUED CHC
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGE
IN THEIR SOLNS BY DAY 7. THE 12Z GFS LIFTS A DEEPER WAVE AND ASSOC
SFC LOW INTO THE WRN FCST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MID-LVL RDGG
BUILDING IN FM THE WEST. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY
AND RESEMBLES MORE THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS DECIDED TO GO
ALONG WITH ITS SOLN AND KEEP SAT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

WITH DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT AN MAINLY CLEAR SKIESS...FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KSAW
BY EARLY SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION...DEWPOINT AOB 20F AT KSAW...ONLY MVFR WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM WISCONSIN TO THE EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY EVENING AND REMAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFT EAST...EXPECT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...AJK
MARINE...PEARSON

000
FXUS63 KDTX 072337
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
637 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009


.AVIATION...

WIND GUSTS HAVE DIED OFF ALREADY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH A
SHALLOW INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HAZE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
INCREASING CIRRUS AND A SCT DECK OF 3000-4000 FOOT CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 346 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY
WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT GETS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT MAINTAINING CLEAR
SKIES AND PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.  DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS WILL RADIATE DOWN TO THE DEW POINT WITH
PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND THE AREA BY DAWN.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE TO BEGIN SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.  SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING OF THIS MILD RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.  MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING BRINGS DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 50F.  WEAK BROAD ASCENT MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT MUCH LIKE
TODAY MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERPLAYING THIS DEVELOPMENT SO WILL LEAN
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A TREND FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE EVENING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOWN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHEAR EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AMPLIFYING AS IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY.  MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
PHASING OF THIS FLOW STILL CREATING A BROADER SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS
WITHIN THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.  LATEST NAM NOW BACK TO A
LESS-PHASED/ WEAKER/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DRIVING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY.  THE GFS HOLDS THE OPPOSITE END OF THE
SPECTRUM IN DEPICTING A MUCH SLOWER/DEEPER SYSTEM...WITH STRONG
FRONTAL DYNAMICS LARGELY IMPACTING THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE POOR CONTINUITY OF THESE MODELS...FAVOR GOES TO
THE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE DETAILS.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/
DEFORMATION IN THE PRESENCE OF GOOD JET COUPLING.  MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DISPLAY AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
LAYER.  OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER NOW...WHICH
WOULD EASILY SUPPORT AN AXIS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DURING THIS TIME.  THE POOR
CONSENSUS ON TIMING WILL PREVENT POPS FROM BEING ELEVATED BEYOND
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.  AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM
THIS WEEKEND UNDER PERSISTENT PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO ONE
FINAL DAY OF LOW-MID 60S.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL /AROUND 50/ BY
TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE.  LOW LEVEL GRADIENT MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...BUT THE DEGREE OF DRYING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF AN ALREADY COOL RESIDENT AIRMASS WOULD STILL
SUPPORT MAINTAINING LOWS BELOW SUGGESTED MODEL GUIDANCE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  SLIGHT RESPONSE IN THE THERMAL FIELDS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.  LIMITED MIXING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING SUNNY
CONDITIONS WHILE KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY RELATIVELY IN
CHECK /HIGHS MID 40S TO AROUND 50F/.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND CARRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  STRONG SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD DOWNSTREAM.  THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST AT THIS TIMESCALE WITH REGARD TO THE SPECIFICS OF THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION.  A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES SOUTHEAST LOWER MI WILL
RESIDE WITHIN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AS A MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MISS VALLEY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL.  ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL REMAIN LARGELY NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY DURING
THIS TIME.

MARINE...

WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE
DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE.  NEXT SHOT AT WIND ISSUES ON THE WATERS WILL COME TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KEC
SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 072334
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
635 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/

THE WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WERE COURTESY OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BARELY
NOTICED TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN BEHIND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...
CAUSING THE COLD FRONT TO LIFT BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS LOW...WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/...TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS IT BUT MUCH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND 30S.  BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK STILL
HANGING ON ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE UPPER PENINSULA...WHILE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA.

SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT (COLDEST OVER NORTHERN
LOWER WHERE WINDS MOST LIKELY TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE).

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST...REMAINS A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OVER THE
STATE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND
MID LEVEL MSTR OVER NRN MI THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
50 PCT. HOWEVER MSTR RETURN INTO THE NRN LAKES INCREASES BY
EVENING...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB DEW PTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0Z OVER EAST UPPER BY
00Z MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 4C OVER NRN LOWER AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO THE STRAITS. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME MORNING
SUN SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT REMAINING DRY THRU THE
AFTN. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING 60 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF
NRN LOWER AS A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH TO THE STRAITS...WILL
MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST UPPER. PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 850MB DEW PTS INCREASING TO 6C OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
3C OVER EAST UPPER...WHILE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MSTR
BTWN 750/500MB. BEST AND QUICKEST MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASE OVER EAST
UPPER AROUND 06Z...AND OVER NRN LOWER AFT 06Z MONDAY BUT REMAINING
LIMITED. LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPLIED BY UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120KT 300MB JET SLIDES OVER NRN MI. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
TREND OF LOW POPS OVER EAST UPPER AND THE WRN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LOWS WILL BE ABT
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HELPED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM...GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S (NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE AROUND 29 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NRN MI).

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WILL MENTION A SMALL CHC OF POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
SWEEPS OVER THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
WITH MSTR AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO
EXIT SE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH
PUSHES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD OVER THE WRN
LAKES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE SFC FEATURE PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
DRIER AIR AND COOLER 850MB TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE NRN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RESETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERALL WILL
LINGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SRN/SE CWA THROUGH THE
MONDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDS OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOWER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE NRN
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE 500MB TROUGH TUESDAY PUSHES
EAST AND UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH SFC AND UPPER
RIDGING CONVERGING OVER THE STATE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB. TUESDAY
HOWEVER...WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF MSTR IN
MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO 500MB TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE
NRN LAKES. LAKES EFFECTS WILL BE MARGINAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C WHILE NRN LAKE MI WATER TEMPS LINGER
AROUND 8C/9C. WINDS TUESDAY BTWN N/NW HOWEVER 850/500MB RH DRIES TO
40/50PCT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL MENTION SOME LAKES CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER
REMAINING DRY. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN
RESPONSE TO COOLER 850MB TEMPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THURSDAY...
WHILE A 500MB LOW MOVING OVER CENTRAL CANADA SWEEPS A TROUGH OVER
THE LAKES SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
LAKES EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE STORM
SYSTEMS PUSH INTO SRN MI BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NRN
LAKES DIFFICULT THRU THE PD DUE TO LATEST PATTERNS AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN
THE 30S.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REDEVELOPING OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
SCA TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVR NRN MI NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WRN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER
THE ERN LAKES MONDAY...AS THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE NRN LAKES.

SWR

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 635 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

VFR. WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THRU THE AREA WILL HAVE ALMOST NO
IMPACT ON OUR WX. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF
OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
     344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 072325 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
624 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING WILL STALL IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION LATE TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
TEMPERATURES GOT A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY DESPITE LOW
MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 900 MB. HAVE KEPT THAT IN MIND FOR
SUNDAY/S HIGH TEMP FCST AND WENT MID 60S AGAIN.

LOW CLOUDS NEVER REALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY SO
HAVE WENT WITH AN OPTIMISTIC SKY FCST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT
SAID... THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY YET... ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH.

THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER THAN THE GFS IN PUSHING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS IS ALSO MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF IN RESPONSE TO NARROW BUT STRONG RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POST FRONTAL FGEN
BANDS ARE VERY TOUGH TO NAIL IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE... SO FOR NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS MONDAY
NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM ARE DETERMINING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHCS ON TUE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND HOW FAST TO
BRING IN PCPN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THESE PCPN
CHCS...MOST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY AND MILD.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME RAIN BACK IN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TUE
MORNING. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM TUE MORNING. THE
FIRST STRONGER TROUGH IN THE SERIES WILL BE MOVING EXITING THE STATE
DURING THE DAY ON TUE. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING TIMING OF THE WAVE...BUT ALL LINGER PCPN INTO AT LEAST
PART OF TUE. WE BELIEVE THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER EURO AND 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WILL END PCPN BY TUE AFTERNOON.

A FAIRLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED AT LEAST LATE TUE
THROUGH THU NIGHT...IF NOT INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER JET SPLITS AND
TAKES SOME ENERGY NORTH. RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
US AND ALLOW FOR THE MILD WX.

UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE PICTURE AROUND FRI AND INTO SAT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. GFS HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA UNTIL NEXT SAT...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EURO. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A SAT FRONTAL
TIMING ALSO. NEW 12Z EURO HAS SPED THE FRONT UP AS THE NRN ENERGY
THAT SPLITS IS SHOWN TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND MAINTAIN THE DRY FCST FOR FRI...AND ADD
IN RAIN FOR SAT. THIS COULD EVEN BE EARLY IF THE TREND FOR THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH IS TO CLOSE OFF MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(624 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL BUT I WENT WITH THE IDEA OF VFR CIGS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...I DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF LIGHT FOG
TOWARD MORNING.

OVERNIGHT THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEW POINTS NEAR 925 BY BY 06Z WILL BE BELOW
0C OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES... IT IS HARD TO SEE HOW ANY CLOUDS
COULD FORM. THAT WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE.

EVEN SO...THE MVFR VSBY TOWARD SUNRISE MAKES SENSE SINCE SURFACE DEW
POINTS DID GET PUSHED UP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA THEN STALLING JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND WITH 850 MB
RIDGE OVERHEAD TOO...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND
THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AROUND. THE LONGER
NIGHTS...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR SOME LIGHT
FOG.

THE BIGGER QUESTION COMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT TURNS AROUND
AND HEADS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE IS A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET (40
KNOTS) AIMED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON PUSHING
5C DEW POINTS...IN THE 900 TO 800 MB LAYER... NORTHWARD INTO THE
COOLER AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
THE 950 TO 900 MB LAYER FROM THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD FORM BY 18Z... BUT THE CASE FOR THIS IS STRONGER NORTH OF
MKG. SO FOR NOW I WENT WITH THAT IDEA AND AM JUST FORECASTING CIRRUS
CLOUDS. TIME WILL TELL ON THIS.

&&

.MARINE...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
GRADIENT IS RELAXING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING IN. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SOUTH FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
NARROW BAND OF QPF UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HYDRO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     MEADE
SHORT TERM:   MEADE
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE

000
FXUS63 KGRR 072324
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
622 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING WILL STALL IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION LATE TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
TEMPERATURES GOT A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY DESPITE LOW
MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 900 MB. HAVE KEPT THAT IN MIND FOR
SUNDAY/S HIGH TEMP FCST AND WENT MID 60S AGAIN.

LOW CLOUDS NEVER REALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY SO
HAVE WENT WITH AN OPTIMISTIC SKY FCST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT
SAID... THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY YET... ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH.

THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER THAN THE GFS IN PUSHING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS IS ALSO MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF IN RESPONSE TO NARROW BUT STRONG RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POST FRONTAL FGEN
BANDS ARE VERY TOUGH TO NAIL IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE... SO FOR NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS MONDAY
NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM ARE DETERMINING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHCS ON TUE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND HOW FAST TO
BRING IN PCPN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THESE PCPN
CHCS...MOST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY AND MILD.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME RAIN BACK IN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TUE
MORNING. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM TUE MORNING. THE
FIRST STRONGER TROUGH IN THE SERIES WILL BE MOVING EXITING THE STATE
DURING THE DAY ON TUE. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING TIMING OF THE WAVE...BUT ALL LINGER PCPN INTO AT LEAST
PART OF TUE. WE BELIEVE THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER EURO AND 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WILL END PCPN BY TUE AFTERNOON.

A FAIRLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED AT LEAST LATE TUE
THROUGH THU NIGHT...IF NOT INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER JET SPLITS AND
TAKES SOME ENERGY NORTH. RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
US AND ALLOW FOR THE MILD WX.

UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE PICTURE AROUND FRI AND INTO SAT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. GFS HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA UNTIL NEXT SAT...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EURO. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A SAT FRONTAL
TIMING ALSO. NEW 12Z EURO HAS SPED THE FRONT UP AS THE NRN ENERGY
THAT SPLITS IS SHOWN TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND MAINTAIN THE DRY FCST FOR FRI...AND ADD
IN RAIN FOR SAT. THIS COULD EVEN BE EARLY IF THE TREND FOR THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH IS TO CLOSE OFF MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(622 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
THIS IS A TOUGH CALL BUT I WENT WITH THE IDEA OF VFR CIGS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...I DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF LIGHT FOG
TOWARD MORNING.

OVERNIGHT THERE IS SO MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...DEW POINTS NEAR 925 BY BY 06Z WILL BE BELOW
0C OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES... IT IS HARD TO SEE HOW ANY CLOUDS
COULD FORM. THAT WILL ALSO HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE.

EVEN SO...THE MVFR VSBY TOWARD SUNRISE MAKES SENSE SINCE SURFACE DEW
POINTS DID GET PUSHED UP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS. TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA THEN STALLING JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND WITH 850 MB
RIDGE OVERHEAD TOO...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND
THERE SHOULD BE NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AROUND. THE LONGER
NIGHTS...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR SOME LIGHT
FOG.

THE BIGGER QUESTION COMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT TURNS AROUND
AND HEADS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE IS A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET (40
KNOTS) AIMED JUST WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON PUSHING
5C DEW POINTS...IN THE 900 TO 800 MB LAYER... NORTHWARD INTO THE
COOLER AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN
THE
950 TO 900 MB LAYER FROM THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FORM BY 18Z... BUT THE CASE FOR THIS IS STRONGER NORTH OF MKG. SO
FOR NOW I WENT WITH THAT IDEA AND AM JUST FORECASTING CIRRUS CLOUDS.
TIME WILL TELL ON THIS.

&&

.MARINE...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
GRADIENT IS RELAXING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING IN. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SOUTH FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
NARROW BAND OF QPF UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HYDRO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     MEADE
SHORT TERM:   MEADE
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE

000
FXUS63 KGRR 072109
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS BUT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THIS EVENING WILL STALL IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION LATE TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER THAN ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
TEMPERATURES GOT A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED TODAY DESPITE LOW
MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS AROUND 900 MB. HAVE KEPT THAT IN MIND FOR
SUNDAY/S HIGH TEMP FCST AND WENT MID 60S AGAIN.

LOW CLOUDS NEVER REALLY MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TODAY SO
HAVE WENT WITH AN OPTIMISTIC SKY FCST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT
SAID... THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY YET... ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH.

THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE QUICKER THAN THE GFS IN PUSHING THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GFS IS ALSO MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF IN RESPONSE TO NARROW BUT STRONG RIBBON OF MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE POST FRONTAL FGEN
BANDS ARE VERY TOUGH TO NAIL IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE... SO FOR NOW
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS MONDAY
NORTHWEST AND HIGHEST POPS MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM ARE DETERMINING ANY LINGERING PCPN
CHCS ON TUE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND HOW FAST TO
BRING IN PCPN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ASIDE FROM THESE PCPN
CHCS...MOST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY AND MILD.

WE HAVE ADDED SOME RAIN BACK IN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TUE
MORNING. NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM TUE MORNING. THE
FIRST STRONGER TROUGH IN THE SERIES WILL BE MOVING EXITING THE STATE
DURING THE DAY ON TUE. MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN THE STRENGTH AND
RESULTING TIMING OF THE WAVE...BUT ALL LINGER PCPN INTO AT LEAST
PART OF TUE. WE BELIEVE THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER EURO AND 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WILL END PCPN BY TUE AFTERNOON.

A FAIRLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED AT LEAST LATE TUE
THROUGH THU NIGHT...IF NOT INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
DIGGING ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS AS THE UPPER JET SPLITS AND
TAKES SOME ENERGY NORTH. RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
US AND ALLOW FOR THE MILD WX.

UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE PICTURE AROUND FRI AND INTO SAT REGARDING
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA. GFS HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA UNTIL NEXT SAT...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EURO. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A SAT FRONTAL
TIMING ALSO. NEW 12Z EURO HAS SPED THE FRONT UP AS THE NRN ENERGY
THAT SPLITS IS SHOWN TO BE A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WE WILL
SIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND MAINTAIN THE DRY FCST FOR FRI...AND ADD
IN RAIN FOR SAT. THIS COULD EVEN BE EARLY IF THE TREND FOR THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH IS TO CLOSE OFF MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(1252 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
2K TO 3K FT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THOSE
FOR MKG...GRR...AND LAN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THOSE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY AND BEYOND... PARTICULARLY AROUND THE I-94 CORRIDOR...
AND BR IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TAFS AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
PEAKS TOMORROW MORNING AND WINDS DIE OFF. NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS
TO GET WORSE THAN MVFR. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF LOWER
CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOMORROW
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AS IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND FUTURE TAF ISSUANCE WILL BETTER DETERMINE THIS THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
GRADIENT IS RELAXING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING IN. WINDS AND
WAVES WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SOUTH FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN AHEAD OF
NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
NARROW BAND OF QPF UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HYDRO.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     MEADE
SHORT TERM:   MEADE
LONG TERM:    NJJ
AVIATION:     HOVING/NJJ
MARINE:       MEADE
HYDROLOGY:    MEADE

000
FXUS63 KMQT 072100
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH MOST PLACES REACHING INTO
THE 60S AND EVEN 70 IN SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE AREAS LIKE ESC/MNM.
IN ADDITION VERY LOW DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN REALIZED BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR
NOW HAVE INCLUDED ONLY PATCHY FOG MENTION SINCE AIRMASS IS SO
DRY...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WITH GRADIENT FLOW
REMAINING COUPLED OVER NORTHWEST CWA LEFT FOG OUT THERE. IN ADDITION
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS TO EASILY REACH INTO THE
20S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER WHERE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS END
UP VERIFY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT..ELSEWHERE
EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/LOW CPDS ENTERS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
PER 310K SURFACE ANALYSIS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPR
GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. UPR DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR
JET OVER ONTARIO AND ASSOC WEAK FGEN FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR NOW WITH
HIGHEST POPS EAST (40 PCT) CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING.

MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC WAVE GETTING KICKED EWD MON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS/SCNTRL CANADA. KEPT ONLY LINGERING CHC
POPS EAST MON MORNING ALONG EXITING SFC BOUNDARY. AS AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE ONLY
WEAK CAA WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -2C WHICH WON`T BE COLD
ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT PCPN. SO...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
MON NIGHT.

MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND YIELD DRY WX TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT E ON WED AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS E THRU CNTRL CANADA. THIS SHORTWAVE STAYS WELL TO
THE N OF THE AREA PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND GIVEN SFC RDGG
HOLDING STRONG...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO WED. INCREASING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM
THE NRN PLAINS WILL WARRANT CHC POPS FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST WED
NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA ON THU. MODELS
INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THU
NIGHT...BUT IT WILL PROPEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA THU
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUED CHC
POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGE
IN THEIR SOLNS BY DAY 7. THE 12Z GFS LIFTS A DEEPER WAVE AND ASSOC
SFC LOW INTO THE WRN FCST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MID-LVL RDGG
BUILDING IN FM THE WEST. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY
AND RESEMBLES MORE THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS DECIDED TO GO
ALONG WITH ITS SOLN AND KEEP SAT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

KCMX HAS GOTTEN QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE GUSTS WIND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. KSAW WAS LAST TO GET RID OF FOG THIS MORNING AND
HAS NOT HAD THAT MUCH MIXING AS OF YET. THE WIND SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE WIND BECOMING ALMOST CALM AT KSAW SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND A STRONGER WIND CORE REMAINING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE THROUGH 6Z...MENTIONED WIND SHEAR THROUGH THAT TIME. WIND
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AT KCMX OVERNIGHT SO DID NOT MENTION WIND SHEAR.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY LEAD TO SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KSAW.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM WISCONSIN TO THE EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY EVENING AND REMAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFT EAST...EXPECT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...AJK
MARINE...PEARSON

000
FXUS63 KAPX 072049
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/

THE WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WERE COURTESY OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BARELY
NOTICED TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN BEHIND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...
CAUSING THE COLD FRONT TO LIFT BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS LOW...WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

JH

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/...TONIGHT

MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS IT BUT MUCH
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND 30S.  BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUD DECK STILL
HANGING ON ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF THE UPPER PENINSULA...WHILE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA.

SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.  GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT (COLDEST OVER NORTHERN
LOWER WHERE WINDS MOST LIKELY TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE).

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST...REMAINS A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OVER THE
STATE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND
MID LEVEL MSTR OVER NRN MI THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER
50 PCT. HOWEVER MSTR RETURN INTO THE NRN LAKES INCREASES BY
EVENING...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB DEW PTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0Z OVER EAST UPPER BY
00Z MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 4C OVER NRN LOWER AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO THE STRAITS. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME MORNING
SUN SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT REMAINING DRY THRU THE
AFTN. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING 60 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF
NRN LOWER AS A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH TO THE STRAITS...WILL
MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST UPPER. PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH 850MB DEW PTS INCREASING TO 6C OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND
3C OVER EAST UPPER...WHILE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MSTR
BTWN 750/500MB. BEST AND QUICKEST MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASE OVER EAST
UPPER AROUND 06Z...AND OVER NRN LOWER AFT 06Z MONDAY BUT REMAINING
LIMITED. LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPLIED BY UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 120KT 300MB JET SLIDES OVER NRN MI. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT
TREND OF LOW POPS OVER EAST UPPER AND THE WRN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LOWS WILL BE ABT
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HELPED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING SYSTEM...GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S (NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE AROUND 29 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NRN MI).

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WILL MENTION A SMALL CHC OF POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM
SWEEPS OVER THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE
WITH MSTR AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO
EXIT SE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH
PUSHES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD OVER THE WRN
LAKES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE SFC FEATURE PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
DRIER AIR AND COOLER 850MB TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE NRN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RESETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERALL WILL
LINGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SRN/SE CWA THROUGH THE
MONDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDS OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOWER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE NRN
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE 500MB TROUGH TUESDAY PUSHES
EAST AND UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH SFC AND UPPER
RIDGING CONVERGING OVER THE STATE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB. TUESDAY
HOWEVER...WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF MSTR IN
MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO 500MB TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE
NRN LAKES. LAKES EFFECTS WILL BE MARGINAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C WHILE NRN LAKE MI WATER TEMPS LINGER
AROUND 8C/9C. WINDS TUESDAY BTWN N/NW HOWEVER 850/500MB RH DRIES TO
40/50PCT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL MENTION SOME LAKES CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER
REMAINING DRY. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN
RESPONSE TO COOLER 850MB TEMPS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THURSDAY...
WHILE A 500MB LOW MOVING OVER CENTRAL CANADA SWEEPS A TROUGH OVER
THE LAKES SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN
LAKES EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE STORM
SYSTEMS PUSH INTO SRN MI BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NRN
LAKES DIFFICULT THRU THE PD DUE TO LATEST PATTERNS AND MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN
THE 30S.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM OVER HUDSON
BAY...WILL EXIT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REDEVELOPING OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE NRN LAKES THIS AFTN/EVENING...WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER
SCA TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED OVR NRN MI NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WRN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER
THE ERN LAKES MONDAY...AS THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER
THE NRN LAKES.

SWR

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1239 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT PLN AND POSSIBLY APN THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-
     344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-342.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 072046
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
346 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GRADUALLY
WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT GETS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT MAINTAINING CLEAR
SKIES AND PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS.  DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LOWS WILL RADIATE DOWN TO THE DEW POINT WITH
PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND THE AREA BY DAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE TO BEGIN SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SSE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.  SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MIXING OF THIS MILD RESIDENT AIRMASS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.  MODELS STILL SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTENING BRINGS DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 50F.  WEAK BROAD ASCENT MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT MUCH LIKE
TODAY MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERPLAYING THIS DEVELOPMENT SO WILL LEAN
MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A TREND FROM MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH
THE EVENING.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOWN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR APPROACHING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHEAR EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AMPLIFYING AS IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY.  MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM JET MAX WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE SAME TIME.  THE POTENTIAL FOR
PHASING OF THIS FLOW STILL CREATING A BROADER SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS
WITHIN THE SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.  LATEST NAM NOW BACK TO A
LESS-PHASED/ WEAKER/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DRIVING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH ON MONDAY.  THE GFS HOLDS THE OPPOSITE END OF THE
SPECTRUM IN DEPICTING A MUCH SLOWER/DEEPER SYSTEM...WITH STRONG
FRONTAL DYNAMICS LARGELY IMPACTING THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  GIVEN THE POOR CONTINUITY OF THESE MODELS...FAVOR GOES TO
THE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE DETAILS.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/
DEFORMATION IN THE PRESENCE OF GOOD JET COUPLING.  MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS STILL DISPLAY AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
LAYER.  OVERALL MOISTURE FIELDS LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER NOW...WHICH
WOULD EASILY SUPPORT AN AXIS OF RAINFALL DEVELOPING GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION DURING THIS TIME.  THE POOR
CONSENSUS ON TIMING WILL PREVENT POPS FROM BEING ELEVATED BEYOND
CHANCE AT THIS POINT.  AIRMASS ON MONDAY WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM
THIS WEEKEND UNDER PERSISTENT PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO ONE
FINAL DAY OF LOW-MID 60S.  STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL /AROUND 50/ BY
TUESDAY.

A PERIOD OF CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT
THE SURFACE.  LOW LEVEL GRADIENT MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...BUT THE DEGREE OF DRYING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF AN ALREADY COOL RESIDENT AIRMASS WOULD STILL
SUPPORT MAINTAINING LOWS BELOW SUGGESTED MODEL GUIDANCE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  SLIGHT RESPONSE IN THE THERMAL FIELDS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH.  LIMITED MIXING AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING SUNNY
CONDITIONS WHILE KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY RELATIVELY IN
CHECK /HIGHS MID 40S TO AROUND 50F/.

A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AND CARRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  STRONG SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
WHILE UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD DOWNSTREAM.  THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES
EXIST AT THIS TIMESCALE WITH REGARD TO THE SPECIFICS OF THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION.  A GENERAL CONSENSUS INDICATES SOUTHEAST LOWER MI WILL
RESIDE WITHIN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AS A MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MISS VALLEY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL.  ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL REMAIN LARGELY NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY DURING
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE
DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
EXPIRE.  NEXT SHOT AT WIND ISSUES ON THE WATERS WILL COME TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1150 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

AVIATION...

DRY AIRMASS IS PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TAF SITES.  SURFACE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED CU
MAY FORM WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND FRONT
WILL BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...NONE.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRC
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......DRC
AVIATION.....DRC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KMQT 071758 AAB
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
100 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

.SYNOPSIS /ISSUED AT 415 AM EST/...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER SE CANADA
AND BROAD TROFFING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO WRN NAMERICA. RESULT
IS PACIFIC AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...SRLY
WINDS NEAR THE SFC HAVE BROUGHT SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50F INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI. DESPITE THE SURGE OF SHALLOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRATUS HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED.
ABOVE THE SHALLOW NEAR SFC MOISTURE...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY PER
00Z SOUNDINGS. THUS...THERE HAS BEEN NO PCPN IN THE WAA PATTERN.
UPSTREAM...AIRMASS WAS VERY WARM YESTERDAY WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS
TIED/BKN IN THE CNTRL/WRN DAKOTAS WHERE TEMPS SOARED WELL INTO THE
70S.

&&

.DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 415 AM EST/...

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS
PACIFIC AIR DOMINATES UNDER GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. IN FACT...EVEN OUT TO 2 WEEKS...CPC 8-14DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES
TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TODAY. WITH
VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING UPSTREAM PER 00Z SOUNDINGS...PCPN IS NOT
A CONCERN. STRATUS/FOG STILL HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AS HIGHER DWPTS ADVECT N INTO SHALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS OVER THE FCST AREA. EVEN IF STRATUS/FOG DOES DEVELOP...GOOD
PUSH OF DRY AIR PER 00Z KBIS SOUNDING ON WRLY WINDS BEHIND SFC TROF
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN WILL
BRING CLEARING FROM W TO E. GIVEN THE WARMTH OBSERVED UPSTREAM
YESTERDAY...INHERITED FCST APPEARS ON TRACK...BUT DID BUMP UP HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES SINCE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE AT ALL DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN RISING QUICKER. EXPECT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S/LWR 60S WITH SOME MID 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE
SCNTRL DOWNSLOPE AREAS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT RECORD HIGH OF
61F HERE AT THE OFFICE COULD BE REACHED...MAYBE BKN TODAY IF SKIES
END UP MOSTLY SUNNY THRU THE DAY.

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTING TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/DRY AIRMASS...WILL LEAN
TO THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT (MID/UPPER 20S IN THE
INTERIOR).

MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SW SUN AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
RISE OVER THE ERN CONUS. IN THE MORE CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE N AND
NE...GRADUAL RISE IN HEIGHTS RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING UPPER JET FROM
NRN ONTARIO TO MAINE WHICH PLACES RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE
OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN AFTN. IN RESPONSE...VERY WEAK SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE IN SRN MN WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LIFTING NE INTO UPPER MI. GFS/UKMET ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A STREAK OF PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI/LAKE
SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING. HAVE SOME DOUBT WHETHER FORCING
AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT QUICKLY. HOWEVER...SINCE INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING FOR WRN UPPER MI...WILL LEAVE THAT IN PLACE
FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL
POPS. WHILE AIRMASS IS STILL MILD WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 4-7C
RANGE...LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING ERLY AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS
WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THAN TODAY. STILL...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WEAK SFC LOW SHIFTS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. WITH
MODEST FORCING AND LACK OF STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...CHC POPS LOOK
FINE FOR NOW.

WEAK SFC WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET KICKED EWD MON AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS/SCNTRL CANADA MON INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUE. WITH EXITING BOUNDARY...OPTED TO END PCPN QUICKER FROM W
TO E MON. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WITH SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...CAA ONLY DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -2C WHICH WON`T BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN.
SO...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING AMPLIFYING TROF...MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER. RIDGE WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT E WED AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS E THRU CNTRL CANADA. WITH SHORTWAVE WELL N AND NW
OF THE AREA PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

KCMX HAS GOTTEN QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. THE GUSTS WIND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. KSAW WAS LAST TO GET RID OF FOG THIS MORNING AND
HAS NOT HAD THAT MUCH MIXING AS OF YET. THE WIND SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THEN DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. WITH THE WIND BECOMING ALMOST CALM AT KSAW SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND A STRONGER WIND CORE REMAINING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE THROUGH 6Z...MENTIONED WIND SHEAR THROUGH THAT TIME. WIND
WILL REMAIN HIGHER AT KCMX OVERNIGHT SO DID NOT MENTION WIND SHEAR.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING MAY LEAD TO SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KSAW.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER MOST OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
EXCEPTION IS OVR FAR SE SECTIONS BTWN CARIBOU ISLAND AND WHITEFISH
POINT...WHERE A SRLY FEW GALE GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE.
DIMINISHING TREND OVR THE LAKE IS BRIEF AS PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THIS MORNING WILL KICK UP WEST WINDS TOWARD 30 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL
OF A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. BEYOND TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW 25 KTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN OVERALL WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON
AVIATION...AJK
MARINE...JLA

000
FXUS63 KGRR 071752 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1252 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
IT WILL BE A NICE FALL WEEKEND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TODAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING POINT TOWARD A MORE OPTIMISTIC
SKY FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THERE WERE SOME AREAS OF SC EXTENDING FROM
THE STRAITS DOWN TOWARD MKG...BUT THESE DID NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE.
THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS
TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY AROUND MID DAY.  CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT APPEARS WE WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY.  WITH
THIS IN MIND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 60 AT MOST LOCALES...AND A
FEW POCKETS OF MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS WILL DIP TO THE 40 TO
45 DEGREE RANGE.  WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY.  AS IT
DOES...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS THICKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.  EVEN SO...
FEEL WE WILL SEE ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO DRIVE TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMP FORECAST.
HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE THROUGH BY THEN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS INTO
THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE PUSHED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY BACK TO THE AFTERNOON ONLY.
THE MODEL TRENDS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...STILL HEADING SE
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT MID DAY...AND TO A OSC-BIV LINE BY
THE END OF THE DAY.  THE JET DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAVORABLE POOLING OF
MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT.  WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS NW OF A BEH-LAN
LINE.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THERE COULD BE THUNDER ALONG THE
FRONT AS 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BY 12Z TUE.  WILL THEREFORE
KEEP TUE DRY. THE NAM CAME IN RATHER WET FOR MON NIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  I CONSIDERED RAISING POPS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE NAM AS COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS.  OVERVIEWS FROM THE NAM SHOW ONLY A NARROW WINDOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE LIFT ELEVATED. THE GFS IS WEAKER
WITH THE LIFT AND THE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT SEPARATED...WHILE THE NEW
HIGH RES EURO IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER MODEL.  WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE WEAKER LIFT DOWN LOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MOISTURE TO NOT BE ALIGNED.

GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...I DID
FEATURE LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

WITH ONLY A LOW RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS MON NIGHT...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS LOOKING DRIER THAN NORMAL.  DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
END UP WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(1252 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
2K TO 3K FT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF THOSE
FOR MKG...GRR...AND LAN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THOSE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
INDICATING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY AND BEYOND... PARTICULARLY AROUND THE I-94 CORRIDOR...
AND BR IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN TAFS AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
PEAKS TOMORROW MORNING AND WINDS DIE OFF. NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS
TO GET WORSE THAN MVFR. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF LOWER
CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TOMORROW
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AS IT WILL BE CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER DETERMINE THIS THREAT.

&&

.MARINE...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH TODAY.  HOWEVER ONCE THE
FRONT IS THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A
QUICK CALMING.  THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
7 PM.  SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A BETTER DAY ON THE LAKE WITH LIGHTER SE
WINDS ONLY PRODUCING WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS.  WINDS PIVOT TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE SLOWLY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     HOVING
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KAPX 071740
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1240 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/

A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
M-72. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME SUNNY ACROSS THE
REGION. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING A PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE ON MONDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1135 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

12Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT RUNNING
ESSENTIALLY NORTH-SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN ALONG THE WESTERN
LOWER SHORELINE...WITH A COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/CENTRAL IOWA.  LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT
MATERIALIZED TO THE EXTENT EARLIER ANTICIPATED...SKIES ARE OVERCAST
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...SOME CLOUDS
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.  12Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A STRONG INVERSION BELOW 900MB...
WITH WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THIS LAYER RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD COVER
TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BIT
OF TRANSVERSE BANDING WITHIN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE STABLE/
STRONGLY SHEARED LAYER...AS EVIDENCED BY PIREPS OF LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT AND
UPSTREAM...WITH LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
(WHICH ITSELF IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY 4MB/3H PRESSURE RISE
CENTER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA).

BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD
END THE DAY WITH A RETURN OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
NICELY THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE MILD START...WIDESPREAD 50S AND
SOME 60+ AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE OFFING.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

HIGH PRESSURE/SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS THRU THE ENTIRE COLUMN...RESULTING IN A DRY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

DRY AND MILD WX WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED BACK INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE
50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
OUR CWA AS THE ELONGATED LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE LIFT INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE LIQUID FORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC...DRAGGING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THRU NRN MICHIGAN. DRY WX WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MONDAY WILL
COOL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 30 TO 35 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/

EXPECT SCA CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MET ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
AREAS THRU TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS ERN UPR
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS...AND HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1239 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT PLN AND POSSIBLY APN THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 071654
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1150 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009


.AVIATION...

DRY AIRMASS IS PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TAF SITES.  SURFACE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  SOME SCATTERED CU
MAY FORM WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.  SURFACE RIDGING BEHIND FRONT
WILL BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 982MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY.
THIS WILL SEND THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH MOISTURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS WAS DRASTICALLY TOO
MOIST FROM THE SFC THROUGH 925MB BASED ON UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS. THE
NAM HAD A MUCH BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSTREAM LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN THE GENERAL LACK OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND APPARENT LACK OF MOISTURE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS THROUGH LATE TODAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE. IN FACT...
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. DESPITE
LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS...THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ADVECT THE
WARM SURFACE TEMPS OBSERVED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY INTO SE MI...ALLOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S /A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL/.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE DRY AIR
ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL FOSTER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE DEGREES /CARRYING LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S/.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WILL RUN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL START TO INCREASE LATE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES HOWEVER TO MAKE
SURE FOG IS NOT WARRANTED INSTEAD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL DEEPEN BEFORE
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER PV
ANOMALY DROPS INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PER LATEST GFS
FORECAST. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS NOW LOOKING TO SET
UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IT PUSHES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MODELS NOW SHOW GOOD LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPS TO INTENSIFY THE
WIND FIELD/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO LOOKING AT
RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING FROM A CANADIAN JET STREAK...AND INSTABILITY
FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING A PW SURGE TO OVER AN
INCH AND A WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVERNIGHT. THUNDER HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST AS CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL A PRETTY DEEP LAYER OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ONCE IT REACHES THE GREAT
LAKES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN A TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY...HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO
POPS/QPF/WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO MIGRATE ACROSS MICHIGAN
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST. WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
PERIOD...HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN WILDLY DIVERGENT WITH REGARD TO
TIMING.

MARINE...

WINDS GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE
HURON THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AS WARM AIR LIMITS THE MIXING DEPTHS OVER THE WATER. THE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ422-LHZ442-LHZ443...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 071635
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1135 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/

A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
M-72. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME SUNNY ACROSS THE
REGION. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING A PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE ON MONDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1135 AM/...THIS AFTERNOON

12Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT RUNNING
ESSENTIALLY NORTH-SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN ALONG THE WESTERN
LOWER SHORELINE...WITH A COLD FRONT ON ITS HEELS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
UPPER/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN/CENTRAL IOWA.  LOW CLOUDS HAVE NOT
MATERIALIZED TO THE EXTENT EARLIER ANTICIPATED...SKIES ARE OVERCAST
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT...SOME CLOUDS
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.  12Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED A
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WITHIN A STRONG INVERSION BELOW 900MB...
WITH WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THIS LAYER RESPONSIBLE FOR CLOUD COVER
TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BIT
OF TRANSVERSE BANDING WITHIN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE STABLE/
STRONGLY SHEARED LAYER...AS EVIDENCED BY PIREPS OF LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT AND
UPSTREAM...WITH LITTLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
(WHICH ITSELF IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY 4MB/3H PRESSURE RISE
CENTER IN ITS WAKE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA).

BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WE SHOULD
END THE DAY WITH A RETURN OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
NICELY THIS MORNING THANKS TO THE MILD START...WIDESPREAD 50S AND
SOME 60+ AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE OFFING.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

HIGH PRESSURE/SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIR MASS THRU THE ENTIRE COLUMN...RESULTING IN A DRY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

DRY AND MILD WX WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED BACK INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE
50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
OUR CWA AS THE ELONGATED LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE LIFT INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE LIQUID FORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC...DRAGGING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THRU NRN MICHIGAN. DRY WX WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MONDAY WILL
COOL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 30 TO 35 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/

EXPECT SCA CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MET ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
AREAS THRU TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS ERN UPR
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS...AND HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 600 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

LLWS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW THIS MORNING...PROBABLY PRODUCING A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND PLN. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 071353 CCA
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
IT WILL BE A NICE FALL WEEKEND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TODAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING POINT TOWARD A MORE OPTIMISTIC
SKY FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THERE WERE SOME AREAS OF SC EXTENDING FROM
THE STRAITS DOWN TOWARD MKG...BUT THESE DID NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE.
THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS
TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY AROUND MID DAY.  CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT APPEARS WE WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY.  WITH
THIS IN MIND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 60 AT MOST LOCALES...AND A
FEW POCKETS OF MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS WILL DIP TO THE 40 TO
45 DEGREE RANGE.  WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY.  AS IT
DOES...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS THICKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.  EVEN SO...
FEEL WE WILL SEE ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO DRIVE TEMPS INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMP FORECAST.
HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WARM FRONT WILL
BE THROUGH BY THEN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
OVERNIGHT. IN FACT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS INTO
THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE PUSHED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY BACK TO THE AFTERNOON ONLY.
THE MODEL TRENDS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...STILL HEADING SE
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT MID DAY...AND TO A OSC-BIV LINE BY
THE END OF THE DAY.  THE JET DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAVORABLE POOLING OF
MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT.  WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS NW OF A BEH-LAN
LINE.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THERE COULD BE THUNDER ALONG THE
FRONT AS 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECT IN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BY 12Z TUE.  WILL THEREFORE
KEEP TUE DRY. THE NAM CAME IN RATHER WET FOR MON NIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  I CONSIDERED RAISING POPS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE NAM AS COMPARED TO
THE OTHER MODELS.  OVERVIEWS FROM THE NAM SHOW ONLY A NARROW WINDOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE LIFT ELEVATED. THE GFS IS WEAKER
WITH THE LIFT AND THE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT SEPARATED...WHILE THE NEW
HIGH RES EURO IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER MODEL.  WILL KEEP POPS LOW
WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE WEAKER LIFT DOWN LOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR THE MOISTURE TO NOT BE ALIGNED.

GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...I DID
FEATURE LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

WITH ONLY A LOW RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS MON NIGHT...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS LOOKING DRIER THAN NORMAL.  DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
END UP WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(703 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST LIMITED CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING.  INCREASING SUNSHINE
WILL LEAD TO BETTER MIXING AND THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY BY NOON.
VALUES OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.  UPON SUNSET...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.

KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM FOR MOST TAF SITES.
40 KNOTS OF WIND AROUND 2000 FT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE SUGGEST AN INCREASED RISK FOR LLWS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF KAZO TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE NORTH OF KMKG ON SUNDAY.  A RISK FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS
EXISTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH TODAY.  HOWEVER ONCE THE
FRONT IS THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A
QUICK CALMING.  THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
7 PM.  SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A BETTER DAY ON THE LAKE WITH LIGHTER SE
WINDS ONLY PRODUCING WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS.  WINDS PIVOT TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE SLOWLY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     MJS
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KGRR 071205
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
703 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
IT WILL BE A NICE FALL WEEKEND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TODAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING POINT TOWARD A MORE OPTIMISTIC
SKY FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THERE WERE SOME AREAS OF SC EXTENDING FROM
THE STRAITS DOWN TOWARD MKG...BUT THESE DID NOT LOOK TO IMPRESSIVE.
THE MODEL TRENDS HAS ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS
TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY AROUND MID DAY.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT APPEARS WE WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY.  WITH
THIS IN MIND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 60 AT MOST LOCALES...AND A
FEW POCKETS OF MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS WILL DIP TO THE 40 TO
45 DEGREE RANGE.  WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY.  AS IT
DOES...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS THICKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.  EVEN SO...
FEEL WE WILL SEE ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO DRIVE TEMPS IN THE MID
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMP FORECAST.  HAVE
ALSO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH BY THEN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT.
IN FACT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY OR SLOWER RISING TEMPS INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE PUSHED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY BACK TO THE AFTERNOON ONLY.
THE MODEL TRENDS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...STILL HEADING SE
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT MID DAY...AND TO A OSC-BIV LINE BY
THE END OF THE DAY.  THE JET DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAVORABLE POOLING OF
MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT.  WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS NW OF A BEH-LAN
LINE.  THAT IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THERE COULD BE THUNDER ALONG THE
FRONT AS 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTED IN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 BY 12Z TUE.  WILL
THEREFORE KEEP TUE DRY. THE NAM CAME IN RATHER WET FOR MON NIGHT
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  I CONSIDERED RAISING POPS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE NAM AS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS.  OVERVIEWS FROM THE NAM SHOW ONLY A
NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE LIFT ELEVATED.
THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE LIFT AND THE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
SEPARATED...WHILE THE NEW HIGH RES EURO IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER
MODEL.  WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE
WEAKER LIFT DOWN LOW AND POTENTIAL FOR THE MOISTURE TO NOT BE
ALIGNED.

GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...I DID
FEATURE LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

WITH ONLY A LOW RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS MON NIGHT...THE EXTEND PERIOD
IS LOOKING DRIER THAN NORMAL.  DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(703 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST LIMITED CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING.  INCREASING SUNSHINE
WILL LEAD TO BETTER MIXING AND THUS GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY BY NOON.
VALUES OVER 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.  UPON SUNSET...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.

KEPT THE MENTION OF LLWS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AM FOR MOST TAF SITES.
40 KNOTS OF WIND AROUND 2000 FT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE SUGGEST AN INCREASED RISK FOR LLWS.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF KAZO TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE NORTH OF KMKG ON SUNDAY.  A RISK FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS
EXISTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH TODAY.  HOWEVER ONCE THE
FRONT IS THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A
QUICK CALMING.  THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
7 PM.  SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A BETTER DAY ON THE LAKE WITH LIGHTER SE
WINDS ONLY PRODUCING WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS.  WINDS PIVOT TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE SLOWLY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     MJS
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KMQT 071153 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
653 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS

.SYNOPSIS /ISSUED AT 415 AM EST/...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER SE CANADA
AND BROAD TROFFING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO WRN NAMERICA. RESULT
IS PACIFIC AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...SRLY
WINDS NEAR THE SFC HAVE BROUGHT SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50F INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI. DESPITE THE SURGE OF SHALLOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRATUS HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED.
ABOVE THE SHALLOW NEAR SFC MOISTURE...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY PER
00Z SOUNDINGS. THUS...THERE HAS BEEN NO PCPN IN THE WAA PATTERN.
UPSTREAM...AIRMASS WAS VERY WARM YESTERDAY WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS
TIED/BKN IN THE CNTRL/WRN DAKOTAS WHERE TEMPS SOARED WELL INTO THE
70S.

&&

.DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 415 AM EST/...

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS
PACIFIC AIR DOMINATES UNDER GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. IN FACT...EVEN OUT TO 2 WEEKS...CPC 8-14DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES
TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TODAY. WITH
VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING UPSTREAM PER 00Z SOUNDINGS...PCPN IS NOT
A CONCERN. STRATUS/FOG STILL HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AS HIGHER DWPTS ADVECT N INTO SHALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS OVER THE FCST AREA. EVEN IF STRATUS/FOG DOES DEVELOP...GOOD
PUSH OF DRY AIR PER 00Z KBIS SOUNDING ON WRLY WINDS BEHIND SFC TROF
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN WILL
BRING CLEARING FROM W TO E. GIVEN THE WARMTH OBSERVED UPSTREAM
YESTERDAY...INHERITED FCST APPEARS ON TRACK...BUT DID BUMP UP HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES SINCE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE AT ALL DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN RISING QUICKER. EXPECT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S/LWR 60S WITH SOME MID 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE
SCNTRL DOWNSLOPE AREAS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT RECORD HIGH OF
61F HERE AT THE OFFICE COULD BE REACHED...MAYBE BKN TODAY IF SKIES
END UP MOSTLY SUNNY THRU THE DAY.

QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTING TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/DRY AIRMASS...WILL LEAN
TO THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT (MID/UPPER 20S IN THE
INTERIOR).

MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SW SUN AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
RISE OVER THE ERN CONUS. IN THE MORE CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE N AND
NE...GRADUAL RISE IN HEIGHTS RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING UPPER JET FROM
NRN ONTARIO TO MAINE WHICH PLACES RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE
OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN AFTN. IN RESPONSE...VERY WEAK SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE IN SRN MN WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LIFTING NE INTO UPPER MI. GFS/UKMET ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A STREAK OF PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI/LAKE
SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING. HAVE SOME DOUBT WHETHER FORCING
AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT QUICKLY. HOWEVER...SINCE INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING FOR WRN UPPER MI...WILL LEAVE THAT IN PLACE
FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL
POPS. WHILE AIRMASS IS STILL MILD WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 4-7C
RANGE...LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING ERLY AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS
WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THAN TODAY. STILL...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WEAK SFC LOW SHIFTS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. WITH
MODEST FORCING AND LACK OF STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...CHC POPS LOOK
FINE FOR NOW.

WEAK SFC WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET KICKED EWD MON AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS/SCNTRL CANADA MON INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUE. WITH EXITING BOUNDARY...OPTED TO END PCPN QUICKER FROM W
TO E MON. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WITH SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...CAA ONLY DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -2C WHICH WON`T BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN.
SO...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING AMPLIFYING TROF...MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER. RIDGE WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT E WED AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS E THRU CNTRL CANADA. WITH SHORTWAVE WELL N AND NW
OF THE AREA PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC IS RESULTING IN PATCHY
LGT FOG THUS FAR...BUT DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING ANY LOW CLOUDS/VERY LOW VSBY OUT OF THE PICTURE. WHATEVER
FOG IS AROUND EARLY ON WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING. MID-LATE
MORNING A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH
THE STRONGEST WINDS...POSSIBLY OVR 30 KTS...WILL OCCUR AT KCMX THE
GUSTY WEST WIND WILL ALSO LEAD TO A CROSSWIND AT KSAW DUE TO THE N
TO S ORIENTATION OF THE RUNWAY THERE.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER MOST OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
EXCEPTION IS OVR FAR SE SECTIONS BTWN CARIBOU ISLAND AND WHITEFISH
POINT...WHERE A SRLY FEW GALE GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE.
DIMINISHING TREND OVR THE LAKE IS BRIEF AS PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THIS MORNING WILL KICK UP WEST WINDS TOWARD 30 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL
OF A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. BEYOND TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW 25 KTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN OVERALL WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA

000
FXUS63 KDTX 071107
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
607 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009


.AVIATION...

THE KDTX VAD WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN SHOWING 40 KTS AT 2-3FT EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE CURRENT SET OF
TAFS WHICH HAVE LLWS THROUGH 15Z. BY THIS TIME...DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ERODE THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER...ALLOWING SOME OF
THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TOPPING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES AROUND 21Z. BY THIS TIME...THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX ALLOWING WINDS TO DIE DOWN. THE LACK OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM
AND LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SKIES REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 982MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY.
THIS WILL SEND THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH MOISTURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS WAS DRASTICALLY TOO
MOIST FROM THE SFC THROUGH 925MB BASED ON UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS. THE
NAM HAD A MUCH BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSTREAM LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN THE GENERAL LACK OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND APPARENT LACK OF MOISTURE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS THROUGH LATE TODAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE. IN FACT...
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. DESPITE
LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS...THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ADVECT THE
WARM SURFACE TEMPS OBSERVED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY INTO SE MI...ALLOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S /A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL/.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE DRY AIR
ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL FOSTER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE DEGREES /CARRYING LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S/.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WILL RUN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL START TO INCREASE LATE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES HOWEVER TO MAKE
SURE FOG IS NOT WARRANTED INSTEAD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL DEEPEN BEFORE
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER PV
ANOMALY DROPS INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PER LATEST GFS
FORECAST. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS NOW LOOKING TO SET
UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IT PUSHES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MODELS NOW SHOW GOOD LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPS TO INTENSIFY THE
WIND FIELD/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO LOOKING AT
RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING FROM A CANADIAN JET STREAK...AND INSTABILITY
FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING A PW SURGE TO OVER AN
INCH AND A WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVERNIGHT. THUNDER HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST AS CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL A PRETTY DEEP LAYER OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ONCE IT REACHES THE GREAT
LAKES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN A TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY...HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO
POPS/QPF/WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO MIGRATE ACROSS MICHIGAN
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST. WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
PERIOD...HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN WILDLY DIVERGENT WITH REGARD TO
TIMING.

MARINE...

WINDS GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE
HURON THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AS WARM AIR LIMITS THE MIXING DEPTHS OVER THE WATER. THE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS LAKE HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ422-LHZ442-LHZ443...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......SC


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 071100
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
600 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/

A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
M-72. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME SUNNY ACROSS THE
REGION. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING A PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE ON MONDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/...TODAY

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT IS RESULTING IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE
BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...DEVELOPING MAINLY
AROUND 5-6 KFT. NO SIGN OF DRIZZLE OR FOG YET. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN. HAVE BACKED OFF TO JUST PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LIMITED AREA COVERAGE OF THIS WX TO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FKS TO APN. REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU
THE MORNING. WILL DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
PROVIDING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DESPITE PASSAGE OF THE COOL FRONT DURING LATE AFTERNOON.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THIS FEATURE TO PASS WITHOUT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

HIGH PRESSURE/SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIRMASS THRU THE ENTIRE COLUMN...RESULTING IN A DRY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

DRY AND MILD WX WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED BACK INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE
50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
OUR CWA AS THE ELONGATED LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE LIFT INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE LIQUID FORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC...DRAGGING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THRU NRN MICHIGAN. DRY WX WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MONDAY WILL
COOL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 30 TO 35 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/

EXPECT SCA CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MET ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
AREAS THRU TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS ERN UPR
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS...AND HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 600 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

LLWS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW THIS MORNING...PROBABLY PRODUCING A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND PLN. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KMQT 070916
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS /ISSUED AT 415 AM EST/...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER SE CANADA
AND BROAD TROFFING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO WRN NAMERICA. RESULT
IS PACIFIC AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE CONUS AND SRN CANADA. IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA...SRLY
WINDS NEAR THE SFC HAVE BROUGHT SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE 40S TO
AROUND 50F INTO ERN MN AND WRN WI. DESPITE THE SURGE OF SHALLOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRATUS HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS EXPECTED.
ABOVE THE SHALLOW NEAR SFC MOISTURE...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY PER
00Z SOUNDINGS. THUS...THERE HAS BEEN NO PCPN IN THE WAA PATTERN.
UPSTREAM...AIRMASS WAS VERY WARM YESTERDAY WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS
TIED/BKN IN THE CNTRL/WRN DAKOTAS WHERE TEMPS SOARED WELL INTO THE
70S.

&&

.DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 415 AM EST/...

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS
PACIFIC AIR DOMINATES UNDER GENERALLY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. IN FACT...EVEN OUT TO 2 WEEKS...CPC 8-14DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES
TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.

SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN ONTARIO TODAY. WITH
VERY DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING UPSTREAM PER 00Z SOUNDINGS...PCPN IS NOT
A CONCERN. STRATUS/FOG STILL HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS AS HIGHER DWPTS ADVECT N INTO SHALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS OVER THE FCST AREA. EVEN IF STRATUS/FOG DOES DEVELOP...GOOD
PUSH OF DRY AIR PER 00Z KBIS SOUNDING ON WRLY WINDS BEHIND SFC TROF
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN WILL
BRING CLEARING FROM W TO E. GIVEN THE WARMTH OBSERVED UPSTREAM
YESTERDAY...INHERITED FCST APPEARS ON TRACK...BUT DID BUMP UP HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES SINCE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE AN ISSUE AT ALL DURING THE
MORNING...ALLOWING TEMPS TO BEGIN RISING QUICKER. EXPECT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 50S/LWR 60S WITH SOME MID 60S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE
SCNTRL DOWNSLOPE AREAS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT RECORD HIGH OF
61F HERE AT THE OFFICE COULD BE REACHED...MAYBE BKN TODAY IF SKIES
END UP MOSTLY SUNNY THRU THE DAY.

QUITE NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTING TO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/DRY AIRMASS...WILL LEAN
TO THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT (MID/UPPER 20S IN THE
INTERIOR).

MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SW SUN AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY
RISE OVER THE ERN CONUS. IN THE MORE CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE N AND
NE...GRADUAL RISE IN HEIGHTS RESULTS IN STRENGTHENING UPPER JET FROM
NRN ONTARIO TO MAINE WHICH PLACES RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE
OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN AFTN. IN RESPONSE...VERY WEAK SFC LOW TAKES
SHAPE IN SRN MN WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND BAND OF LOW-MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LIFTING NE INTO UPPER MI. GFS/UKMET ARE MOST
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING A STREAK OF PCPN INTO WRN UPPER MI/LAKE
SUPERIOR ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING. HAVE SOME DOUBT WHETHER FORCING
AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME ANTECEDENT
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT QUICKLY. HOWEVER...SINCE INHERITED FCST HAD
SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING FOR WRN UPPER MI...WILL LEAVE THAT IN PLACE
FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PULL
POPS. WHILE AIRMASS IS STILL MILD WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 4-7C
RANGE...LIGHT/VRBL WINDS BECOMING ERLY AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS
WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER DAY THAN TODAY. STILL...HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S.

WEAK SFC LOW SHIFTS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. WITH
MODEST FORCING AND LACK OF STRONG MOISTURE RETURN...CHC POPS LOOK
FINE FOR NOW.

WEAK SFC WAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GET KICKED EWD MON AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE DAKOTAS/SCNTRL CANADA MON INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUE. WITH EXITING BOUNDARY...OPTED TO END PCPN QUICKER FROM W
TO E MON. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY WITH SHORTWAVE DIGGING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...CAA ONLY DROPS 850MB TEMPS TO
AROUND -2C WHICH WON`T BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN.
SO...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING AMPLIFYING TROF...MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER. RIDGE WILL LOOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT E WED AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS E THRU CNTRL CANADA. WITH SHORTWAVE WELL N AND NW
OF THE AREA PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO WED.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS A SURGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE FM THE SW
OVERSPREADS UPR MI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROF FM THE NRN
PLAINS. PASSAGE OF THIS TROF ON SAT MORNING WL BRING
IMPROVEMENT...BUT THIS TREND WL BE SLOWER AT CMX WITH AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WLRY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT GUSTY
WRLY WINDS BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER MOST OF LK SUPERIOR THIS MORNING.
EXCEPTION IS OVR FAR SE SECTIONS BTWN CARIBOU ISLAND AND WHITEFISH
POINT...WHERE A SRLY FEW GALE GUSTS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE.
DIMINISHING TREND OVR THE LAKE IS BRIEF AS PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THIS MORNING WILL KICK UP WEST WINDS TOWARD 30 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT WITH ARRIVAL
OF A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. BEYOND TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY
BELOW 25 KTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN OVERALL WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JV
MARINE...JLA

000
FXUS63 KGRR 070903
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

LATEST UPDATE...ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
IT WILL BE A NICE FALL WEEKEND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 TODAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON
SUNDAY.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
MAIN FOCUS WAS ON SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING POINT TOWARD A MORE OPTIMISTIC
SKY FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THERE WERE SOME AREAS OF SC EXTENDING FROM
THE STRAITS DOWN TOWARD MKG...BUT THESE DID NOT LOOK TO IMPRESSIVE.
THE MODEL TRENDS HAS ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS
TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES BY AROUND MID DAY.  CAN NOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART IT APPEARS WE WILL STAY PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY.  WITH
THIS IN MIND TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 60 AT MOST LOCALES...AND A
FEW POCKETS OF MID 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS WILL DIP TO THE 40 TO
45 DEGREE RANGE.  WARM ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY.  AS IT
DOES...WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS THICKEN INTO THE AFTERNOON.  EVEN SO...
FEEL WE WILL SEE ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE TO DRIVE TEMPS IN THE MID
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.  HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMP FORECAST.  HAVE
ALSO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
THROUGH BY THEN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT.
IN FACT WE SHOULD SEE STEADY OR SLOWER RISING TEMPS INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.

HAVE PUSHED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY BACK TO THE AFTERNOON ONLY.
THE MODEL TRENDS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...STILL HEADING SE
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT MID DAY...AND TO A OSC-BIV LINE BY
THE END OF THE DAY.  THE JET DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT GREAT WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A FAVORABLE POOLING OF
MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT.  WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS NW OF A BEH-LAN
LINE.  THAT IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THERE COULD BE THUNDER ALONG THE
FRONT AS 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ADVECTED IN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 BY 12Z TUE.  WILL
THEREFORE KEEP TUE DRY. THE NAM CAME IN RATHER WET FOR MON NIGHT
ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  I CONSIDERED RAISING POPS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE IN THE NAM AS
COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS.  OVERVIEWS FROM THE NAM SHOW ONLY A
NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE LIFT ELEVATED.
THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE LIFT AND THE MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT
SEPARATED...WHILE THE NEW HIGH RES EURO IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER
MODEL.  WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH THIS FRONT AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE
WEAKER LIFT DOWN LOW AND POTENTIAL FOR THE MOISTURE TO NOT BE
ALIGNED.

GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED...I DID
FEATURE LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

WITH ONLY A LOW RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS MON NIGHT...THE EXTEND PERIOD
IS LOOKING DRIER THAN NORMAL.  DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP
WARMER THAN NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(1155 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
LOOKING A BOTH THE LATEST NAM (07/00Z) AND THE 02Z HRRR RUC WITH
CEILING ANIMATION.... MAKE IT CLEAR THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
PUSH BACK THE START OF THE IFR CIGS WITH EACH MODEL RUN. IN FACT THE
LATEST NAM DOES NOT EVEN DEVELOP THE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SATURDAY OVER
THE GRR TAF SITES. SO I PULLED THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST TOTALLY.

EVEN SO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SURFACE SO I CONTINUES
THE LLWS OVERNIGHT. WINDS DECREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER... ALSO DAY TIME MIXING WILL AID IN MITIGATING THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS).

&&

.MARINE...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES HIGH TODAY.  HOWEVER ONCE THE
FRONT IS THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A
QUICK CALMING.  THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
7 PM.  SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A BETTER DAY ON THE LAKE WITH LIGHTER SE
WINDS ONLY PRODUCING WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS.  WINDS PIVOT TO THE
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WAVES SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(403 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009)
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE SLOWLY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH 7 PM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     JK
SHORT TERM:   JK
LONG TERM:    MJS
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       JK
HYDROLOGY:    JK

000
FXUS63 KDTX 070829
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 982MB LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY.
THIS WILL SEND THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH MOISTURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS WAS DRASTICALLY TOO
MOIST FROM THE SFC THROUGH 925MB BASED ON UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS. THE
NAM HAD A MUCH BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT
CONTINUES TO INDICATE UPSTREAM LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN THE GENERAL LACK OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND APPARENT LACK OF MOISTURE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS THROUGH LATE TODAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE. IN FACT...
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM SUGGEST A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. DESPITE
LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS...THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ADVECT THE
WARM SURFACE TEMPS OBSERVED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY INTO SE MI...ALLOWING
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE 60S /A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL/.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE DRY AIR
ADVECTION...CLEAR SKIES AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL FOSTER BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A COUPLE DEGREES /CARRYING LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S WILL RUN MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL START TO INCREASE LATE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ADVECT LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAKE A RUN AT 50 DEGREES. WILL THEREFORE HOLD
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
MOISTURE PROFILES OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES HOWEVER TO MAKE
SURE FOG IS NOT WARRANTED INSTEAD.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL DEEPEN BEFORE
IT PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AS UPPER PV
ANOMALY DROPS INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PER LATEST GFS
FORECAST. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST MICHIGAN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. SOME INTERESTING DYNAMICS NOW LOOKING TO SET
UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IT PUSHES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MODELS NOW SHOW GOOD LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST HELPS TO INTENSIFY THE
WIND FIELD/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO LOOKING AT
RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING FROM A CANADIAN JET STREAK...AND INSTABILITY
FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH MODELS ALSO SHOWING A PW SURGE TO OVER AN
INCH AND A WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OVERNIGHT. THUNDER HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED
TO THE FORECAST AS CROSS-SECTIONS REVEAL A PRETTY DEEP LAYER OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. ALL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH ONCE IT REACHES THE GREAT
LAKES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN A TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM. WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO TUESDAY...HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER REFINEMENTS TO
POPS/QPF/WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST LOOKS TO MIGRATE ACROSS MICHIGAN
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST. WILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT US SOMETIME DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY
PERIOD...HOWEVER MODELS REMAIN WILDLY DIVERGENT WITH REGARD TO
TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS LAKE
HURON THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING AS WARM AIR LIMITS THE MIXING DEPTHS OVER THE WATER. THE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TONIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS LAKE HURON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1205 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

AVIATION...

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, REMAINS A
FACTOR WITH 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 AND 2000
FEET THROUGH LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE WIND PATTERN WILL BRING
MILD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY, ORIGINATING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT IS NEAR 50F. THIS IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AND RAISES THE CONCERN FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE NIGHT THEN MOVING INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPLICATIONS IN THE
CEILING FORECAST ARISE WITH A LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUD OBSERVATIONS TO
SUPPORT MODEL FIELDS. HOWEVER, THE DEWPOINT IS THERE IN THE SURFACE
REPORTS AND SUGGESTS THE MODELS ARE LIKELY ON TARGET WITH NOCTURNAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.
MOISTURE FIELDS THEN SHOW MVFR CEILING DIRECTED INTO SE MICHIGAN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDS IN MODEL DATA DO SHOW A BIT LESS
COVERAGE AND/OR SHORTER DURATION OF LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS HAS BEEN
WORKED INTO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ422-LHZ442-LHZ443...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....HLO
MARINE.......SC
AVIATION.....BT


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 070820
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
320 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/

A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
M-72. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME SUNNY ACROSS THE
REGION. THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING A PLEASANT END TO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE ON MONDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...PROVIDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/...TODAY

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO
THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COOL
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT IS RESULTING IN ONLY AN INCREASE IN
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WISCONSIN...WRN UPR MICHIGAN AND
THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. CLOSER TO HOME...LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE
BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...DEVELOPING MAINLY
AROUND 5-6 KFT. NO SIGN OF DRIZZLE OR FOG YET. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
MOISTEN. HAVE BACKED OFF TO JUST PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING AND
HAVE LIMITED AREA COVERAGE OF THIS WX TO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
FKS TO APN. REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THRU
THE MORNING. WILL DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
PROVIDING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BOOST AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES DESPITE PASSAGE OF THE COOL FRONT DURING LATE AFTERNOON.
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THIS FEATURE TO PASS WITHOUT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

HIGH PRESSURE/SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MICHIGAN TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COOL FRONT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DRY AIRMASS THRU THE ENTIRE COLUMN...RESULTING IN A DRY AND MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

DRY AND MILD WX WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT
LAKES. UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED BACK INTO THE
REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE
50S TO EVEN LOWER 60S.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NW HALF OF
OUR CWA AS THE ELONGATED LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF ENHANCED
MOISTURE LIFT INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN.
RELATIVELY MILD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING ANY PRECIP THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE LIQUID FORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC...DRAGGING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THRU NRN MICHIGAN. DRY WX WILL RETURN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S FOR MONDAY WILL
COOL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 30 TO 35 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 320 AM/

EXPECT SCA CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MET ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
AREAS THRU TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE ENDED ACROSS ERN UPR
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS...AND HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED GALE WARNINGS
TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1205 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THRU AND A BIT PAST SUNRISE...UNTIL WE MIX DOWN
SOME OF THE GUSTINESS. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SW SATURDAY MORNING...PROBABLY PRODUCING SEVERAL HOURS
OF MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY FOR THE
UPCOMING DAY.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KMQT 070511 AAB
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1210 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ISSUED AT 350 PM

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PROGRESSIVE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALF ALONG THE U.S. CNDN BORDER WITH LO
AMPLITUDE RDGING DOMINATING THE UPR GRT LKS. THE CWA IS UNDER A
STRONG SW FLOW/SHARP WAD PATTERN BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI OVER SE
ONTARIO AND LO PRES TROF IN THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAD...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS VARYING FM -12C AT MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO
18C AT BIS AND H85 SW WINDS OF 35-40KTS WITHIN THE SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT...THERE IS NO PCPN OVER THE UPR GRT LKS DUE TO EXPANSE OF
DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS SHOWN BY 12Z RAOBS. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
ARE QUITE DRY...THE STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LO PRES TROF IN THE
NRN PLAINS IS DRAWING AMPLE LLVL MSTR NEWD. SFC DWPTS...WHICH ARE IN
THE 30S OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN...ARE AS HI AS 45 TO 50 IN
IOWA. FARTHER TO THE W...ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV IS PLOWING THRU THE
ZONAL FLOW AND CRASHING INTO THE PAC NW WITH 00Z-12Z H3 HGT FALLS IN
EXCESS OF 200M AT A FEW SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION /TNGT AND SAT/...ISSUED AT 350 PM

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/ST AS LO
PRES TROF FM THE PLAINS BEARS DOWN ON THE FA. FOCUS ON SAT TURNS TO
CLRG TRENDS/TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROF PASSAGE.

TNGT...EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND DEPARTURE OF SHARPEST PRES
GRADIENT/PRES FALL CENTER IN ONTARIO TO THE E. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG LO PRES TROF WL BE DIMINISHING...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AXIS OF HIER SFC-H95 DWPTS MOVING
INTO THE CWA OVERNGT. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MSTR SUPPORTS GOING FCST
OF FOG/ST FORMATION TNGT...WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR FLOWING OVER
RELATIVELY COLD GROUND AND UNDER SHARP WAD INVRN. TENDED TO SLOW
DOWN GOING FCST FOG FORMATION A BIT UNTIL 03Z-06Z WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF LLVL MSTR
CORE NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVNG/ OVERNGT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH DZ
THERE WL BE TNGT...BUT MODELS ARE QUITE PERSISTENT IN GENERATING
PCPN DESPITE DRY/STABLE MID LVLS ABV LO MSTR/INVRN. SO OPTED TO HOLD
ON TO GOING FCST AT LEAST LATER AT NGT WHEN THERE MAY BE SOME UVV
WITHIN SHALLOW MOIST LYR WITH ARPCH OF LO PRES TROF. GIVEN STEADY
WIND YET THIS EVNG AND ARRIVAL OF LLVL MSTR LATER TNGT...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY MODEST DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP.

ON SAT...LO PRES TROF WL SWING ACRS THE FA W-E AND CLEAR ERY BY 18Z.
BOTH NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW VIGOROUS DRY ADVCTN/CLRG IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROF PASSAGE WITH ARRIVAL OF ACYC FLOW IN THE AFTN. SO
MAINTAINED TREND OF WX TURNING MOSUNNY. WITH PACIFIC AIRMASS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE TROF (H85 TEMPS ARND 5C BY 00Z SUN)...PLAN ON WELL ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
ARND A MILD 60...ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH TEMPS APRCHG 80
IN THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN...TENDED TOWARD THE HI SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS AND WELL INTO THE 60S AT SOME PLACES ACRS THE SCNTRL
WITH DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW.

COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISSUED AT 350 PM

WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD DRY...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDING...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY...AND ELONGATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO
SLIDE UP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE LOW ITSELF
LOOKS TO CROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY
MORNING...WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF SLOWLY ENDING POPS/WX BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE QUICKENED A BIT MORE.

THE 500MB FLOW WILL BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK...IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
STATES. AT 500MB THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING...AND
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM LOOKED TO BE ON
THE SLOWER SIDE...WITH THE GFS ON THE FAST SIDE...THE DIFFERENCE IN
TIMING BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS IS 6-8 HOURS.  THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...AND MAY
CUT OFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A
STRONG RIDGE TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THEY MAY DIP JUST BELOW THE 0C MARK BY 12Z
TUESDAY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...STILL ONLY -2C.  THIS IS OFF THE 00Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF.  THE 12Z GFS IS 2 TO 5C WARMER AT 850MB TUESDAY. WITH
DRY WEATHER FIGURED TUESDAY...THE CONUNDRUM OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD
SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.  IN FACT...KEPT THE IDEA OF TUESDAY THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEING DRY.

GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...DID NOT GO AS HIGH WITH THE SOUTH WESTERLY
TO WESTERLY WINDS...AS NOTED OFF THE GFS...FOR THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.  FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE. THIS WAS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
LOW PROBABILITY AND SMALL TIME RANGE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 0 AND 3C
FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING AS A SURGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE FM THE SW
OVERSPREADS UPR MI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROF FM
THE NRN PLAINS. PASSAGE OF THIS TROF ON SAT MORNING WL BRING
IMPROVEMENT...BUT THIS TREND WL BE SLOWER AT CMX WITH AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WLRY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT GUSTY
WRLY WINDS BY LATE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS COULD
EXCEED 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT ONGOING GALES IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING W-E AS FLATTER PRES GRADIENT SHIFTS TO THE E
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LO PRES TROF FROM MN. W WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY REACH 30 KTS ON SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEYOND
SAT...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS PRES GRADIENT STAYS LIGHT.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ250-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-
     264-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JV
MARINE...KC

000
FXUS63 KAPX 070510
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1205 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO MICHIGAN. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE WEATHER CHANGE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

BERGER

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 935 PM/...TONIGHT

AREA OF MID CLOUDS THAT KEPT US FROM SEEING MUCH SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON...IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST. CIRRUS
TRAILS THE LOWER STUFF...WITH A BACK EDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI.
SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTS TO
36MPH AT GLR...AND HIGHER GUSTS AT SOME COASTAL SITES. SURFACE
TEMPS ARE STEADY OR VERY SLOWLY RISING. DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY
NEAR 30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT ARE IN THE LOWER 40S IN EASTERN WI.
THE MAIN ISSUE REMAINS WHETHER THIS INCOMING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CAN RESULT IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE.

A SMALL AREA OF LOWER CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. BUT
THAT IS AN AWFULLY LONG WAY FROM HERE...AT THE END OF RICHER
MOISTURE FEED (DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AS FAR N AS THE TWIN
CITIES)...AND WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY HERE
AFTER 06Z. BY THEN 850-900MB WINDS WILL VEER ENOUGH SW-ERLY TO
PICK UP SOME OF THE RICHER MOISTURE WEST OF LAKE MI. THE PATTERN
IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO
RESULT IN REALLY LOW STRATUS DECK...AS SURFACE- 950MB WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY DUE SOUTH...AND THERE/S NO MOIST ADVECTION AVAILABLE FROM
THAT DIRECTION (SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 30F AS FAR SOUTH AS
IND/DAY/CVG).

WILL THUS STILL ADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE...BUT
WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE. WILL REMOVE DRIZZLE...WHICH WE
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHEN THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER SATURATES. TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE TWEAKED TO
KEEP TEMPS ON A SLOW UPWARD TRAJECTORY OVERNIGHT.

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NRN CANADA...
WILL MOVE INTO HUDSON BAY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING EAST BY 00Z
SUNDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ERN LAKES
SATURDAY MORNING PUSHES EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXTREMELY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NRN MI
WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT WHILE SFC TO 850MB REMAINS SATURATED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WIND SHEAR ATOP THE LOW LVL INVERSION
GENERATING A CHC FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER MSTR IN
THE LOWEST LAYERS DIMINISHES QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON CONFINING
DRIZZLE CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 50S HELPED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BOARD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND EASTWARD
EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE SFC BASED MSTR
DIMINISHES AFTER 00Z. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF DRY CONDS
WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY NICE DAY IN STORE WITH SFC RIDGING
REMAINING AN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NRN LAKES INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING
INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. OVERALL WILL CONT DRY TREND THRU 00Z MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND STRAITS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE WRN LAKES. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
BE SUPPLIED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT 300MB JET SLIPPING
BTWN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON BAY. MSTR PROGS SHOWING GOOD MSTR
RETURN INTO THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850MB
DEW PTS INCREASING TO AROUND 6C. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS OVER THE SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE
850/500MB RH INCREASES TO 80 PCT OVER ERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS
REGION. OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO EAST UPPER AND
NW/NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA BUT REMAINING DRY. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S WITH SUN AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 6C. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NRN MI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SWEEPS SLOWLY OVER THE STATE. THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN DRY FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...AS MID LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO INCREASE IN MSTR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE STATE.
OVERALL WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE SE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WHERE MSTR IS SLOWEST TO LEAVE. COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST WHILE 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C. LAKE EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CONTROL
AS OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN
WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C WHILE 850/700 AND 850/500MB RH DROPS TO UNDER
30 PCT. WILL MENTION SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
A STORM SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY SWEEPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE NRN LAKES. FAIRLY ACTIVE AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB TROUGH EXITS
EAST TUESDAY WITH RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SWEEPS OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. WARM AND MAINLY DRY THRU THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
4C/6C UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -4C BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT THURSDAY WHEN MSTR INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE STATE.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 856 PM/

DETOUR HAS ALSO JOINED THE GALE BRIGADE...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 35KT SINCE 7PM. HAVE UPGRADED THE ST MARYS RIVER AND
EXTREME NORTHERN LAKE HURON TO GALES.

EARLIER...WHITEFISH PT REPORTED 33KT GUSTS FOR TWO HOURS...AND GD
MARAIS IS HOWLING. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR WHITEFISH BAY
FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL COME DOWN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
WINDS VEER (DIMINISHING CHANNELING EFFECTS BY THE POINT) AND
WEAKEN A BIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ELSEWHERE.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1205 AM/...VALID FOR 06Z TAFS

LLWS WILL CONTINUE THRU AND A BIT PAST SUNRISE...UNTIL WE MIX DOWN
SOME OF THE GUSTINESS. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SW SATURDAY MORNING...PROBABLY PRODUCING SEVERAL HOURS
OF MVFR CIGS. OTHERWISE VFR...THOUGH SOMEWHAT BREEZY FOR THE
UPCOMING DAY.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KDTX 070505
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1205 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.AVIATION...

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SE MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AHEAD OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, REMAINS A
FACTOR WITH 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 AND 2000
FEET THROUGH LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE WIND PATTERN WILL BRING
MILD AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH TODAY, ORIGINATING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT IS NEAR 50F. THIS IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AND RAISES THE CONCERN FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE NIGHT THEN MOVING INTO
OUR AREA BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COMPLICATIONS IN THE
CEILING FORECAST ARISE WITH A LACK OF UPSTREAM CLOUD OBSERVATIONS TO
SUPPORT MODEL FIELDS. HOWEVER, THE DEWPOINT IS THERE IN THE SURFACE
REPORTS AND SUGGESTS THE MODELS ARE LIKELY ON TARGET WITH NOCTURNAL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS.
MOISTURE FIELDS THEN SHOW MVFR CEILING DIRECTED INTO SE MICHIGAN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. TRENDS IN MODEL DATA DO SHOW A BIT LESS
COVERAGE AND/OR SHORTER DURATION OF LOWER CLOUDS AND THIS HAS BEEN
WORKED INTO THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST
INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 343 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER MI AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE EXITING HIGH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL ADVECT A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS
INTO THE STATE. 12Z NAM SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS HOVERING AROUND 570DM
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ACT AGAINST THE
DIURNAL CYCLE KEEPING TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY AFTER AN INITIAL DROP
RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS...AROUND 6-8KFT...HAS BEEN STEADILY
MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE EDGE OF THE 850MB THETA-E
GRADIENT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF SOUTHERN MI BY ABOUT 00Z.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SHEARING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE...WEAK
CONVERGENCE/ASCENT AND BETTER HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTH WILL
PRECLUDE SEEING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF DRIZZLE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  SUSTAINED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WHILE MIXING INCREASES SLIGHTLY.  THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER THERMAL RESPONSE COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.  BETTER MIXING
WILL ALSO YIELD A FEW SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
EJECTS EAST ALONG THE BORDER.  WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AS THE RIDGE AXIS KICKS EAST DURING
THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BUT AGAIN MOISTURE LOOKS TOO MEAGER FOR RAINFALL.  ASSUMING
SIMILAR MIXING TO THAT ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE SUNDAY HIGHS COME IN
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER /UPR 50S-LWR 60S/.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER MODELS NOW DEPICTING A
WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM NOW...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
MAKE THE MOST OF CONTINUED MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES.  THIS SUPPORTS
THE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.  INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHS BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP TUESDAY NIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING OF THE COLUMN BRINGS CLEARING SKIES WHILE WINDS DIMINISH AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS REMAINING ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...FAVORING SUB-FREEZING
READINGS WED MORNING.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED DEPTH TO THE
DIURNAL MIXING WILL MINIMIZE THE TEMPERATURES RESPONSE ON WEDNESDAY
DESPITE A GOOD BIT INSOLATION AND BUILDING HEIGHTS...WITH READINGS
AGAIN PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.  TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

MARINE...

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME
30 KNOT WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES. STABILITY OVER THE LAKE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE...BEFORE A WEAK FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KGRR 070457
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1155 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
WITH NO BIG STORMS IN THE OFFING...FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR
TERM ARE CENTERED AN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. FOR
TONIGHT...BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM
WITH BACK EDGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ADVECTION OF WARMER AND MOISTER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS
INDICATED IN MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS.

THE EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON FORECAST MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ARE IN THE
MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATING MAXES WILL BE
HELD IN THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL RH/STRATUS DECK. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
MAXES SINCE LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION IN MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS AN ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THE FLOW
GOES WEST SOUTHWEST WITH DRYING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR GUIDANCE MINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH CALL FOR TEMPS AS EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS
IS UNCERTAIN. WITH WEAK FRONT STALLED OR LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT DURING THE DAY AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS AROUND AGAIN...BUT LOWER 60S SEEM PROBABLE
EVEN WITH LIMITED SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY)
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE OR THINKING.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET FOR NOVEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF NORMAL...AT LEAST AVERAGE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...AND
DRIER THAN NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MON INTO
EARLY TUE.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COUPLE OF S/W MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. STRONGEST S/W DIGS INTO
REGION MON-TUE BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH THE EXPERIMENTAL FIM AND
ECMWF FEATURE A STRONGER S/W AND ARE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT
DEVELOPING A FLAT WAVE THAT BRINGS CLOSE /0.25/ INCHES OF RAIN TO
AREAS S OF I-96.  THE GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND DRIER WITH THIS
FRONT.  PRETTY MUCH SPLIT THE DIFF FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT FAIR
AMOUNT OF SC OVER THE REGION ON TUE AS UPR TROF PULLS THROUGH.

LOOKING OUT BEYOND NEXT WEEK...PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT
AMPLIFY AS STRONG MJO EVOLVING OVER INDIAN OCEAN MOVES INTO WRN
PACIFIC. BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WILL INITIALLY SPARK A NEGATIVE PNA
PATTERN WITH LONGWAVE TROF IN THE WEST AND THEN RAPIDLY PROGRESS
EAST AS MJO ACTIVITY MOVES OVER ABNORMALLY WARM WATERS ASSOCIATED
WITH EL NINO IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(1155 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
LOOKING A BOTH THE LATEST NAM (07/00Z) AND THE 02Z HRRR RUC WITH
CEILING ANIMATION.... MAKE IT CLEAR THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
PUSH BACK THE START OF THE IFR CIGS WITH EACH MODEL RUN. IN FACT THE
LATEST NAM DOES NOT EVEN DEVELOP THE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL SATURDAY OVER
THE GRR TAF SITES. SO I PULLED THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST TOTALLY.

EVEN SO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE THE SURFACE SO I CONTINUES
THE LLWS OVERNIGHT. WINDS DECREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER... ALSO DAY TIME MIXING WILL AID IN MITIGATING THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS).
&&

.MARINE...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND WILL GUST OVER 30
KTS AT TIMES. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACK OFF SATURDAY EVENING
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN AND WIND AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE SLOWLY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH 7 PM
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     OSTUNO
SHORT TERM:   OSTUNO
LONG TERM:    COBB
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:    OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KAPX 070236
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO MICHIGAN. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE WEATHER CHANGE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

BERGER

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 935 PM/...TONIGHT

AREA OF MID CLOUDS THAT KEPT US FROM SEEING MUCH SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON...IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO THE EAST. CIRRUS
TRAILS THE LOWER STUFF...WITH A BACK EDGE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI.
SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTS TO
36MPH AT GLR...AND HIGHER GUSTS AT SOME COASTAL SITES. SURFACE
TEMPS ARE STEADY OR VERY SLOWLY RISING. DEW POINTS ARE MAINLY
NEAR 30 TO THE LOWER 30S...BUT ARE IN THE LOWER 40S IN EASTERN WI.
THE MAIN ISSUE REMAINS WHETHER THIS INCOMING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CAN RESULT IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE.

A SMALL AREA OF LOWER CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. BUT
THAT IS AN AWFULLY LONG WAY FROM HERE...AT THE END OF RICHER
MOISTURE FEED (DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AS FAR N AS THE TWIN
CITIES)...AND WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY HERE
AFTER 06Z. BY THEN 850-900MB WINDS WILL VEER ENOUGH SW-ERLY TO
PICK UP SOME OF THE RICHER MOISTURE WEST OF LAKE MI. THE PATTERN
IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS. HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO
RESULT IN REALLY LOW STRATUS DECK...AS SURFACE- 950MB WINDS REMAIN
MAINLY DUE SOUTH...AND THERE/S NO MOIST ADVECTION AVAILABLE FROM
THAT DIRECTION (SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 30F AS FAR SOUTH AS
IND/DAY/CVG).

WILL THUS STILL ADVERTISE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE...BUT
WILL SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT MORE. WILL REMOVE DRIZZLE...WHICH WE
WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WHEN THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER SATURATES. TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE TWEAKED TO
KEEP TEMPS ON A SLOW UPWARD TRAJECTORY OVERNIGHT.

JZ

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NRN CANADA...
WILL MOVE INTO HUDSON BAY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING EAST BY 00Z
SUNDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ERN LAKES
SATURDAY MORNING PUSHES EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXTREMELY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NRN MI
WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT WHILE SFC TO 850MB REMAINS SATURATED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WIND SHEAR ATOP THE LOW LVL INVERSION
GENERATING A CHC FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER MSTR IN
THE LOWEST LAYERS DIMINISHES QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON CONFINING
DRIZZLE CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 50S HELPED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BOARD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND EASTWARD
EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE SFC BASED MSTR
DIMINISHES AFTER 00Z. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF DRY CONDS
WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY NICE DAY IN STORE WITH SFC RIDGING
REMAINING AN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NRN LAKES INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING
INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. OVERALL WILL CONT DRY TREND THRU 00Z MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND STRAITS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE WRN LAKES. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
BE SUPPLIED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT 300MB JET SLIPPING
BTWN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON BAY. MSTR PROGS SHOWING GOOD MSTR
RETURN INTO THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850MB
DEW PTS INCREASING TO AROUND 6C. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS OVER THE SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE
850/500MB RH INCREASES TO 80 PCT OVER ERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS
REGION. OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO EAST UPPER AND
NW/NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA BUT REMAINING DRY. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S WITH SUN AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 6C. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NRN MI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SWEEPS SLOWLY OVER THE STATE. THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN DRY FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...AS MID LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO INCREASE IN MSTR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE STATE.
OVERALL WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE SE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WHERE MSTR IS SLOWEST TO LEAVE. COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST WHILE 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C. LAKE EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CONTROL
AS OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN
WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C WHILE 850/700 AND 850/500MB RH DROPS TO UNDER
30 PCT. WILL MENTION SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
A STORM SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY SWEEPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE NRN LAKES. FAIRLY ACTIVE AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB TROUGH EXITS
EAST TUESDAY WITH RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SWEEPS OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. WARM AND MAINLY DRY THRU THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
4C/6C UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -4C BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT THURSDAY WHEN MSTR INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE STATE.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 856 PM/

DETOUR HAS ALSO JOINED THE GALE BRIGADE...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 35KT SINCE 7PM. HAVE UPGRADED THE ST MARYS RIVER AND
EXTREME NORTHERN LAKE HURON TO GALES.

EARLIER...WHITEFISH PT REPORTED 33KT GUSTS FOR TWO HOURS...AND GD
MARAIS IS HOWLING. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR WHITEFISH BAY
FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL COME DOWN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
WINDS VEER (DIMINISHING CHANNELING EFFECTS BY THE POINT) AND
WEAKEN A BIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ELSEWHERE.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 636 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

SEVERAL AVIATION ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF WINNIPEG...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK. STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO WE/LL SEE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE LIGHT ENOUGH TO MEET LLWS CRITERIA. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED
LLWS TO THE TAF FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SW WILL RACE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD FORM...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAWN. THOSE CIGS SHOULD
HOLD UNTIL VERY LATE SATURDAY.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KAPX 070157
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
857 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO MICHIGAN. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE WEATHER CHANGE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

BERGER

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...TONIGHT

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE EAST COAST...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.  AC/HIGH SC CLOUD DECK HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ALREADY
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
NORTH INTO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA...WITH LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THEN ADVECTING/DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.  SO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE WITH SOME
THINNING OF INITIAL CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING (REPLACED BY BAND OF CI
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST)...FOLLOWED BY ST INCREASING
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME DRIZZLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD STEADY OUT OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NRN CANADA...
WILL MOVE INTO HUDSON BAY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING EAST BY 00Z
SUNDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ERN LAKES
SATURDAY MORNING PUSHES EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXTREMELY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NRN MI
WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT WHILE SFC TO 850MB REMAINS SATURATED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WIND SHEAR ATOP THE LOW LVL INVERSION
GENERATING A CHC FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER MSTR IN
THE LOWEST LAYERS DIMINISHES QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON CONFINING
DRIZZLE CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 50S HELPED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BOARD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND EASTWARD
EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE SFC BASED MSTR
DIMINISHES AFTER 00Z. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF DRY CONDS
WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY NICE DAY IN STORE WITH SFC RIDGING
REMAINING AN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NRN LAKES INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING
INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. OVERALL WILL CONT DRY TREND THRU 00Z MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND STRAITS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE WRN LAKES. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
BE SUPPLIED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT 300MB JET SLIPPING
BTWN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON BAY. MSTR PROGS SHOWING GOOD MSTR
RETURN INTO THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850MB
DEW PTS INCREASING TO AROUND 6C. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS OVER THE SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE
850/500MB RH INCREASES TO 80 PCT OVER ERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS
REGION. OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO EAST UPPER AND
NW/NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA BUT REMAINING DRY. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S WITH SUN AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 6C. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NRN MI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SWEEPS SLOWLY OVER THE STATE. THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN DRY FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...AS MID LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO INCREASE IN MSTR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE STATE.
OVERALL WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE SE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WHERE MSTR IS SLOWEST TO LEAVE. COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST WHILE 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C. LAKE EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CONTROL
AS OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN
WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C WHILE 850/700 AND 850/500MB RH DROPS TO UNDER
30 PCT. WILL MENTION SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
A STORM SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY SWEEPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE NRN LAKES. FAIRLY ACTIVE AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB TROUGH EXITS
EAST TUESDAY WITH RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SWEEPS OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. WARM AND MAINLY DRY THRU THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
4C/6C UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -4C BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT THURSDAY WHEN MSTR INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE STATE.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 856 PM/

DETOUR HAS ALSO JOINED THE GALE BRIGADE...FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO
AROUND 35KT SINCE 7PM. HAVE UPGRADED THE ST MARYS RIVER AND
EXTREME NORTHERN LAKE HURON TO GALES.

EARLIER...WHITEFISH PT REPORTED 33KT GUSTS FOR TWO HOURS...AND GD
MARAIS IS HOWLING. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR WHITEFISH BAY
FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL COME DOWN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
WINDS VEER (DIMINISHING CHANNELING EFFECTS BY THE POINT) AND
WEAKEN A BIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ELSEWHERE.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 636 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

SEVERAL AVIATION ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF WINNIPEG...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK. STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO WE/LL SEE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE LIGHT ENOUGH TO MEET LLWS CRITERIA. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED
LLWS TO THE TAF FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SW WILL RACE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD FORM...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAWN. THOSE CIGS SHOULD
HOLD UNTIL VERY LATE SATURDAY.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KMQT 070028 AAA
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ISSUED AT 350 PM

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PROGRESSIVE...
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALF ALONG THE U.S. CNDN BORDER WITH LO
AMPLITUDE RDGING DOMINATING THE UPR GRT LKS. THE CWA IS UNDER A
STRONG SW FLOW/SHARP WAD PATTERN BTWN DEPARTING SFC HI OVER SE
ONTARIO AND LO PRES TROF IN THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF
THIS WAD...WITH 12Z H85 TEMPS VARYING FM -12C AT MOOSONEE ONTARIO TO
18C AT BIS AND H85 SW WINDS OF 35-40KTS WITHIN THE SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT...THERE IS NO PCPN OVER THE UPR GRT LKS DUE TO EXPANSE OF
DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS SHOWN BY 12Z RAOBS. ALTHOUGH THE MID LVLS
ARE QUITE DRY...THE STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE LO PRES TROF IN THE
NRN PLAINS IS DRAWING AMPLE LLVL MSTR NEWD. SFC DWPTS...WHICH ARE IN
THE 30S OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN...ARE AS HI AS 45 TO 50 IN
IOWA. FARTHER TO THE W...ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV IS PLOWING THRU THE
ZONAL FLOW AND CRASHING INTO THE PAC NW WITH 00Z-12Z H3 HGT FALLS IN
EXCESS OF 200M AT A FEW SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION /TNGT AND SAT/...ISSUED AT 350 PM

MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/ST AS LO
PRES TROF FM THE PLAINS BEARS DOWN ON THE FA. FOCUS ON SAT TURNS TO
CLRG TRENDS/TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROF PASSAGE.

TNGT...EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN TO DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND DEPARTURE OF SHARPEST PRES
GRADIENT/PRES FALL CENTER IN ONTARIO TO THE E. EVEN THOUGH THE
STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG LO PRES TROF WL BE DIMINISHING...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AXIS OF HIER SFC-H95 DWPTS MOVING
INTO THE CWA OVERNGT. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS MSTR SUPPORTS GOING FCST
OF FOG/ST FORMATION TNGT...WITH ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR FLOWING OVER
RELATIVELY COLD GROUND AND UNDER SHARP WAD INVRN. TENDED TO SLOW
DOWN GOING FCST FOG FORMATION A BIT UNTIL 03Z-06Z WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF LLVL MSTR
CORE NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE EVNG/ OVERNGT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH DZ
THERE WL BE TNGT...BUT MODELS ARE QUITE PERSISTENT IN GENERATING
PCPN DESPITE DRY/STABLE MID LVLS ABV LO MSTR/INVRN. SO OPTED TO HOLD
ON TO GOING FCST AT LEAST LATER AT NGT WHEN THERE MAY BE SOME UVV
WITHIN SHALLOW MOIST LYR WITH ARPCH OF LO PRES TROF. GIVEN STEADY
WIND YET THIS EVNG AND ARRIVAL OF LLVL MSTR LATER TNGT...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY MODEST DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP.

ON SAT...LO PRES TROF WL SWING ACRS THE FA W-E AND CLEAR ERY BY 18Z.
BOTH NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW VIGOROUS DRY ADVCTN/CLRG IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROF PASSAGE WITH ARRIVAL OF ACYC FLOW IN THE AFTN. SO
MAINTAINED TREND OF WX TURNING MOSUNNY. WITH PACIFIC AIRMASS FCST TO
FOLLOW THE TROF (H85 TEMPS ARND 5C BY 00Z SUN)...PLAN ON WELL ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. MIXING TO H85 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS
ARND A MILD 60...ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH TEMPS APRCHG 80
IN THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN...TENDED TOWARD THE HI SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS AND WELL INTO THE 60S AT SOME PLACES ACRS THE SCNTRL
WITH DOWNSLOPING WNW FLOW.

COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...ISSUED AT 350 PM

WE WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD DRY...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE ANYWHERE IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDING...WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. ZONAL FLOW TO SLIGHT
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SFC
SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES SATURDAY...AND ELONGATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO
SLIDE UP OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE LOW ITSELF
LOOKS TO CROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY
MORNING...WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.  KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF SLOWLY ENDING POPS/WX BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE QUICKENED A BIT MORE.

THE 500MB FLOW WILL BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE MOVE INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK...IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
STATES. AT 500MB THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE ACROSS MANITOBA AND THE DAKOTAS MONDAY MORNING...AND
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM LOOKED TO BE ON
THE SLOWER SIDE...WITH THE GFS ON THE FAST SIDE...THE DIFFERENCE IN
TIMING BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS IS 6-8 HOURS.  THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...AND MAY
CUT OFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW A
STRONG RIDGE TO SLIDE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THEY MAY DIP JUST BELOW THE 0C MARK BY 12Z
TUESDAY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND THE EAST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...STILL ONLY -2C.  THIS IS OFF THE 00Z RUN
OF THE ECMWF.  THE 12Z GFS IS 2 TO 5C WARMER AT 850MB TUESDAY. WITH
DRY WEATHER FIGURED TUESDAY...THE CONUNDRUM OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOULD
SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.  IN FACT...KEPT THE IDEA OF TUESDAY THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEING DRY.

GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES...DID NOT GO AS HIGH WITH THE SOUTH WESTERLY
TO WESTERLY WINDS...AS NOTED OFF THE GFS...FOR THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.  FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE. THIS WAS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
LOW PROBABILITY AND SMALL TIME RANGE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 0 AND 3C
FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
READINGS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

VFR CONDITIONS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVNG AND THEN TO IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AS A SURGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE FM THE WSW
OVERSPREADS UPR MI IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL COOLING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LO PRES TROF FM THE NRN PLAINS. PASSAGE OF THIS TROF ON
SAT MORNING WL BRING IMPROVEMENT...BUT THIS TREND WL BE SLOWER AT
CMX WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WLRY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. .

&&

.MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/...

EXPECT ONGOING GALES IMPACTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING W-E AS FLATTER PRES GRADIENT SHIFTS TO THE E
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LO PRES TROF FROM MN. W WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROF PASSAGE MAY REACH 30 KTS ON SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. BEYOND
SAT...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW 25 KTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS PRES GRADIENT STAYS LIGHT.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ250-266-267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-248-249-
     264-265.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ251.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JV
MARINE...KC

000
FXUS63 KAPX 070005
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
705 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO MICHIGAN. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE WEATHER CHANGE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

BERGER

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...TONIGHT

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE EAST COAST...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.  AC/HIGH SC CLOUD DECK HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ALREADY
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
NORTH INTO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA...WITH LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THEN ADVECTING/DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.  SO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE WITH SOME
THINNING OF INITIAL CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING (REPLACED BY BAND OF CI
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST)...FOLLOWED BY ST INCREASING
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME DRIZZLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD STEADY OUT OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NRN CANADA...
WILL MOVE INTO HUDSON BAY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING EAST BY 00Z
SUNDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ERN LAKES
SATURDAY MORNING PUSHES EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXTREMELY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NRN MI
WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT WHILE SFC TO 850MB REMAINS SATURATED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WIND SHEAR ATOP THE LOW LVL INVERSION
GENERATING A CHC FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER MSTR IN
THE LOWEST LAYERS DIMINISHES QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON CONFINING
DRIZZLE CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 50S HELPED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BOARD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND EASTWARD
EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE SFC BASED MSTR
DIMINISHES AFTER 00Z. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF DRY CONDS
WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY NICE DAY IN STORE WITH SFC RIDGING
REMAINING AN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NRN LAKES INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING
INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. OVERALL WILL CONT DRY TREND THRU 00Z MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND STRAITS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE WRN LAKES. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
BE SUPPLIED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT 300MB JET SLIPPING
BTWN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON BAY. MSTR PROGS SHOWING GOOD MSTR
RETURN INTO THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850MB
DEW PTS INCREASING TO AROUND 6C. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS OVER THE SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE
850/500MB RH INCREASES TO 80 PCT OVER ERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS
REGION. OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO EAST UPPER AND
NW/NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA BUT REMAINING DRY. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S WITH SUN AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 6C. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NRN MI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SWEEPS SLOWLY OVER THE STATE. THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN DRY FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...AS MID LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO INCREASE IN MSTR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE STATE.
OVERALL WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE SE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WHERE MSTR IS SLOWEST TO LEAVE. COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST WHILE 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C. LAKE EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CONTROL
AS OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN
WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C WHILE 850/700 AND 850/500MB RH DROPS TO UNDER
30 PCT. WILL MENTION SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
A STORM SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY SWEEPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE NRN LAKES. FAIRLY ACTIVE AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB TROUGH EXITS
EAST TUESDAY WITH RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SWEEPS OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. WARM AND MAINLY DRY THRU THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
4C/6C UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -4C BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT THURSDAY WHEN MSTR INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE STATE.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 659 PM/

WHITEFISH PT REPORTING 33KT GUSTS EACH OF THE LAST TWO HOURS...AND
GD MARAIS IS UP TO 38KT. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR WHITEFISH
BAY FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL COME DOWN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
WINDS VEER (DIMINISHING CHANNELING EFFECTS BY THE POINT) AND
WEAKEN A BIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN UP ELSEWHERE.

JZ

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 636 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

SEVERAL AVIATION ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF WINNIPEG...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK. STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO WE/LL SEE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE LIGHT ENOUGH TO MEET LLWS CRITERIA. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED
LLWS TO THE TAF FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SW WILL RACE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD FORM...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAWN. THOSE CIGS SHOULD
HOLD UNTIL VERY LATE SATURDAY.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KGRR 062342
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
FAIR WEATHER WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
WITH NO BIG STORMS IN THE OFFING...FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR
TERM ARE CENTERED AN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. FOR
TONIGHT...BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM
WITH BACK EDGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ADVECTION OF WARMER AND MOISTER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AS
INDICATED IN MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS.

THE EXTENT OF THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON FORECAST MAX TEMPS
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ARE IN THE
MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATING MAXES WILL BE
HELD IN THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL RH/STRATUS DECK. WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR
MAXES SINCE LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION IN MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS AN ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SFC TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND THE FLOW
GOES WEST SOUTHWEST WITH DRYING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR GUIDANCE MINS.

SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER TOUGH CALL FOR TEMPS AS EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS
IS UNCERTAIN. WITH WEAK FRONT STALLED OR LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT DURING THE DAY AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING...THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS AROUND AGAIN...BUT LOWER 60S SEEM PROBABLE
EVEN WITH LIMITED SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
(MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY)
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE OR THINKING.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET FOR NOVEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ON
THE HIGH SIDE OF NORMAL...AT LEAST AVERAGE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...AND
DRIER THAN NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE MON INTO
EARLY TUE.

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A COUPLE OF S/W MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA. STRONGEST S/W DIGS INTO
REGION MON-TUE BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. BOTH THE EXPERIMENTAL FIM AND
ECMWF FEATURE A STRONGER S/W AND ARE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT
DEVELOPING A FLAT WAVE THAT BRINGS CLOSE /0.25/ INCHES OF RAIN TO
AREAS S OF I-96.  THE GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND DRIER WITH THIS
FRONT.  PRETTY MUCH SPLIT THE DIFF FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT FAIR
AMOUNT OF SC OVER THE REGION ON TUE AS UPR TROF PULLS THROUGH.

LOOKING OUT BEYOND NEXT WEEK...PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE BUT
AMPLIFY AS STRONG MJO EVOLVING OVER INDIAN OCEAN MOVES INTO WRN
PACIFIC. BEST GUESS IS THAT IT WILL INITIALLY SPARK A NEGATIVE PNA
PATTERN WITH LONGWAVE TROF IN THE WEST AND THEN RAPIDLY PROGRESS
EAST AS MJO ACTIVITY MOVES OVER ABNORMALLY WARM WATERS ASSOCIATED
WITH EL NINO IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(645 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
I EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM...RUC AND GFS.  WHILE THERE IS INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT REALLY
INCREASE MUCH UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS AT THAT TIME THAT I
BROUGHT IN THE LOWER CLOUDS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THERE CURRENTLY IS NO
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR OR LOWER CIGS)OVER MN AND WI TO BRING IN. THIS
MEANS THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE TO DEVELOP. THE REAL TIME HRRR RUC SHOWS
THEM DEVELOPING OVER WI BY 09Z. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFKIT TIME
SECTIONS SUGGEST 12Z AS THE START TIME FOR THE LOW LEVEL RH RISING
OVER 95 PCT TOO. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE CIEL WILL HOLD
DURING THE DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.

I ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO OUR TAFS FOR TONIGHT SINCE MODEL
FORECAST WINDS REACH 50 KNOTS AT 3000 BY 03Z. TAMDAR SHOWS WINDS TO
30 KNOTS NEAR 4000 FT CURRENTLY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z BEFORE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY (PARTLY DUE TO DAY TIME
MIXING).

&&

.MARINE...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND WILL GUST OVER 30
KTS AT TIMES. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACK OFF SATURDAY EVENING
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN AND WIND AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(400 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009)
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE SLOWLY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THROUGH 7 PM
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS:     OSTUNO
SHORT TERM:   OSTUNO
LONG TERM:    COBB
AVIATION:     WDM
MARINE:       OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY:    OSTUNO

000
FXUS63 KDTX 062341
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
641 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.AVIATION...

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT IN SE MICHIGAN AHEAD
OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR, DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, REMAINS A FACTOR AS
ADDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IN ADDITION, THE WIND PATTERN
WILL BRING MILD AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
ORIGINATING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINT
IS AROUND 50F. THIS IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AND
RAISES THE CONCERN FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
DURING THE NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO OUR AREA BY LATER SATURDAY
MORNING. COMPLICATIONS IN THE FORECAST ARISE WITH A LACK OF
UPSTREAM CLOUD OBSERVATIONS TO SUPPORT MODEL FIELDS. HOWEVER, THE
DEWPOINT IS THERE IN THE SURFACE REPORTS AND SUGGESTS THE MODELS
ARE LIKELY ON TARGET WITH NOCTURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS. MOISTURE FIELDS THEN SHOW MVFR
CEILING DIRECTED INTO SE MICHIGAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 343 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER MI AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE EXITING HIGH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL ADVECT A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS
INTO THE STATE. 12Z NAM SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS HOVERING AROUND 570DM
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ACT AGAINST THE
DIURNAL CYCLE KEEPING TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY AFTER AN INITIAL DROP
RIGHT AFTER SUNSET.

AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS...AROUND 6-8KFT...HAS BEEN STEADILY
MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE EDGE OF THE 850MB THETA-E
GRADIENT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF SOUTHERN MI BY ABOUT 00Z.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW
WILL CONTINUE SHEARING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON
SATURDAY.  THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE...WEAK
CONVERGENCE/ASCENT AND BETTER HEIGHT FALLS TO THE NORTH WILL
PRECLUDE SEEING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF DRIZZLE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  SUSTAINED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WHILE MIXING INCREASES SLIGHTLY.  THIS WILL
PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER THERMAL RESPONSE COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 SOUTH.  BETTER MIXING
WILL ALSO YIELD A FEW SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
EJECTS EAST ALONG THE BORDER.  WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AS THE RIDGE AXIS KICKS EAST DURING
THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BUT AGAIN MOISTURE LOOKS TOO MEAGER FOR RAINFALL.  ASSUMING
SIMILAR MIXING TO THAT ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE SUNDAY HIGHS COME IN
A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER /UPR 50S-LWR 60S/.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.  HOWEVER MODELS NOW DEPICTING A
WEAKER/MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM NOW...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
MAKE THE MOST OF CONTINUED MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES.  THIS SUPPORTS
THE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME.  INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHS BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP TUESDAY NIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING OF THE COLUMN BRINGS CLEARING SKIES WHILE WINDS DIMINISH AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS REMAINING ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...FAVORING SUB-FREEZING
READINGS WED MORNING.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED DEPTH TO THE
DIURNAL MIXING WILL MINIMIZE THE TEMPERATURES RESPONSE ON WEDNESDAY
DESPITE A GOOD BIT INSOLATION AND BUILDING HEIGHTS...WITH READINGS
AGAIN PREDOMINATELY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.  TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

MARINE...

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MIXING POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME
30 KNOT WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES. STABILITY OVER THE LAKE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE...BEFORE A WEAK FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT...ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INNER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......DRK


YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

000
FXUS63 KAPX 062336
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
636 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO MICHIGAN. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY. THE
ONLY NOTICEABLE WEATHER CHANGE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND
SHIFT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

BERGER

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...TONIGHT

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG
THE EAST COAST...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.  AC/HIGH SC CLOUD DECK HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS ALREADY
APPROACHING LAKE MICHIGAN.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
NORTH INTO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA...WITH LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THEN ADVECTING/DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT.  SO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE WITH SOME
THINNING OF INITIAL CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING (REPLACED BY BAND OF CI
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST)...FOLLOWED BY ST INCREASING
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME DRIZZLE.  TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL A BIT THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD STEADY OUT OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS
CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/...SATURDAY AND BEYOND

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NRN CANADA...
WILL MOVE INTO HUDSON BAY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO QUEBEC.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING EAST BY 00Z
SUNDAY. AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ERN LAKES
SATURDAY MORNING PUSHES EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...WHILE NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXTREMELY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NRN MI
WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER 40 PCT WHILE SFC TO 850MB REMAINS SATURATED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME WIND SHEAR ATOP THE LOW LVL INVERSION
GENERATING A CHC FOR SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER MSTR IN
THE LOWEST LAYERS DIMINISHES QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON CONFINING
DRIZZLE CHANCES MAINLY TO THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE LOWER 50S HELPED BY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. BOARD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND EASTWARD
EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE SFC BASED MSTR
DIMINISHES AFTER 00Z. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF DRY CONDS
WITH SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY NICE DAY IN STORE WITH SFC RIDGING
REMAINING AN INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE NRN LAKES INTO THE AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING
INTO THE WRN LAKES AS THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. OVERALL WILL CONT DRY TREND THRU 00Z MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND STRAITS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE WRN LAKES. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL
BE SUPPLIED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120KT 300MB JET SLIPPING
BTWN LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON BAY. MSTR PROGS SHOWING GOOD MSTR
RETURN INTO THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...WITH 850MB
DEW PTS INCREASING TO AROUND 6C. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
FAIRLY DRY MID LEVELS OVER THE SRN AND SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE
850/500MB RH INCREASES TO 80 PCT OVER ERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS
REGION. OVERALL WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO EAST UPPER AND
NW/NRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE REST OF
THE CWA BUT REMAINING DRY. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S WITH SUN AND 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 6C. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S DUE TO CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF NRN MI
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SWEEPS SLOWLY OVER THE STATE. THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO
REMAIN DRY FIRST THING IN THE MORNING...AS MID LEVELS TAKE SOME TIME
TO INCREASE IN MSTR. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TO PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS OVER THE STATE.
OVERALL WILL KEEP A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE SE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
WHERE MSTR IS SLOWEST TO LEAVE. COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE STATE. WINDS TURN NORTHWEST WHILE 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C. LAKE EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CONTROL
AS OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN
WATER TEMPS AROUND 8C WHILE 850/700 AND 850/500MB RH DROPS TO UNDER
30 PCT. WILL MENTION SOME LAKE CLOUDS OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY MAINLY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN
A STORM SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY SWEEPS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE NRN LAKES. FAIRLY ACTIVE AT UPPER LEVELS...500MB TROUGH EXITS
EAST TUESDAY WITH RIDGING WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THURSDAY...BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND SWEEPS OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY. WARM AND MAINLY DRY THRU THE PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND
4C/6C UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -4C BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITING EAST OF THE LAKES. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY EXCEPT THURSDAY WHEN MSTR INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF
BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE STATE.

SWR

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 348 PM/

SCA NEEDED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN LAKE NEARSHORE
WATERS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NRN LAKES...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXIT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE STATE. SOME
DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT THE NRN LAKES NEARSHORE WATERS SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 636 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS

SEVERAL AVIATION ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF WINNIPEG...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF
THE DECK. STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO WE/LL SEE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE LIGHT ENOUGH TO MEET LLWS CRITERIA. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED
LLWS TO THE TAF FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SW WILL RACE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG SHOULD FORM...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAWN. THOSE CIGS SHOULD
HOLD UNTIL VERY LATE SATURDAY.

JZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$