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000
SXUS43 KAPX 222042
RECAPX
RECREATIONAL FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
MIZ008-015-230900-
SAULT STE. MARIE...PARADISE...TAHQUAMENON FALLS AND ENGADINE-
342 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
SNOW DEPTH..........MISSING.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..36-41.
WIND................SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 30.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MAX TEMPERATURE(F)..44-49.
WIND................SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 29.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..32-37.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 26.
SNOW RATIO..........
$$
MIZ008-015-230900-
ST. IGNACE...RUDYARD...KINCHLOE AND DETOUR VILLAGE-
342 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
SNOW DEPTH..........MISSING.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..36-41.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 32.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MAX TEMPERATURE(F)..43-48.
WIND................SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 30.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..33-38.
WIND................SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 28.
SNOW RATIO..........
$$
MIZ016-019>022-027-028-230900-
PETOSKEY...GAYLORD...CHARLEVOIX...GRAYLING...MANCELONA...BOYNE
CITY AND KALKASKA-
342 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
SNOW DEPTH..........MISSING.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..32-37...EXCEPT 42-47 ALONG THE COAST.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 31.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MAX TEMPERATURE(F)..49-54...EXCEPT 38-43 ALONG THE COAST.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 27.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..32-37...EXCEPT 42-47 ALONG THE COAST.
WIND................SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 27.
SNOW RATIO..........
$$
MIZ020-025-026-031>033-230900-
TRAVERSE CITY...CADILLAC...FRANKFORT...EMPIRE...LAKE CITY AND
MANISTEE-
342 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
SNOW DEPTH..........MISSING.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..36-41.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 31.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG.
MAX TEMPERATURE(F)..49-54.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 26.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..35-40.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 28.
SNOW RATIO..........
$$
MIZ017-018-023-024-230900-
ALPENA...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...HILLMAN...INDIAN RIVER AND
ATLANTA-
342 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
SNOW DEPTH..........MISSING.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..34-39.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 30.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MAX TEMPERATURE(F)..47-52...EXCEPT 37-42 ALONG THE COAST.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 30.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..33-38.
WIND................SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 28.
SNOW RATIO..........
$$
MIZ029-030-034>036-041-042-230900-
MIO...HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...TAWAS CITY...WEST BRANCH AND
STANDISH-
342 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
SNOW DEPTH..........MISSING.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..35-40.
WIND................EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 32.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MAX TEMPERATURE(F)..44-49.
WIND................EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 28.
SNOW RATIO..........
.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
MIN TEMPERATURE(F)..37-42.
WIND................EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
SNOW AMOUNT.........0 INCHES.
WIND CHILL(F).......MINIMUM FOR THE PERIOD 30.
SNOW RATIO..........
$$
.EXTENDED...
.TUESDAY...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THANKSGIVING DAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
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000
NOUS43 KMQT 201022
PNSMQT
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
520 AM EDT FRI NOV 20 2009
...EL NINO LIKELY TO BRING WARMER WINTER TO UPPER MICHIGAN...
...BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL ALSO LIKELY...
ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS FAR AWAY...THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC CAN INFLUENCE THE WEATHER IN
UPPER MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASON WHEN THAT WATER
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY TYPICALLY REACHES PEAK INTENSITY. DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF 2009...WATER TEMPERATURES IN THIS PART OF THE PACIFIC
OCEAN HAVE RISEN AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SO
CALLED EL NINO PHENOMENON RESULTS IN A STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER
JET STREAM SURGING INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...WHICH CAN HAVE
IMPORTANT IMPACTS ON THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE REST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE CURRENT
EL NINO IS CONSIDERED A MODERATELY STRONG EVENT...AND THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THIS MODERATELY STRONG
EPISODE TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS COMING WINTER.
SINCE 1960...EL NINOS OF SIMILAR INTENSITY HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE
WINTERS OF 1965-66...1986-87...1991-92...1994-95...AND 2002-03. THE
FOLLOWING TABLE SUMMARIZES THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...
AND PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE SNOWFALL OBSERVED AT FIVE LOCATIONS ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN IN DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH DURING THESE MODERATE EL
NINO WINTERS. OVERALL...THE DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH PERIOD IN THESE
FIVE WINTERS TURNED OUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN USUAL. SNOWFALL
TENDED TO BE ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
4-MONTH MEAN TEMPERATURE 4-MONTH
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PERCENT OF
LOCATION (DEGREES F) NORMAL SNOWFALL
MARQUETTE NWS +2.2 75
HOUGHTON +2.1 69
IRONWOOD +2.6 79
IRON MOUNTAIN +1.9 67
NEWBERRY +2.0 83
ALL 5 STATIONS +2.2 75
SINCE THE CPC INDICATES THIS MODERATE STRENGTH EL NINO WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS COMING WINTER...THEY ARE FORECASTING A
GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCE OF AN ABOVE NORMAL MEAN WINTER
TEMPERATURE ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CPC MAKES NO
FORECAST FOR SNOW...PAST MODERATE EL NINO WINTERS SUGGEST SEASONAL
SNOWFALL THIS WINTER WILL BE ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
HOWEVER...THE EL NINO INFLUENCE IS NOT THE ONLY FACTOR THAT IMPACTS
UPPER MICHIGAN WEATHER. IF A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM NORTHERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND LOCKS A TROUGH WITH
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES...THE
WEATHER PATTERN CAN FAVOR COLD WEATHER EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF EL
NINO. FOR INSTANCE...ALTHOUGH DECEMBER 2002 WAS QUITE WARM WITH
BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL...THE WEATHER TURNED MUCH COLDER IN JANUARY
THROUGH MARCH WITH THIS BLOCKING PATTERN OVERWHELMING THE EL NINO
INFLUENCE. FEBRUARY 2003 AVERAGED 6 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
SNOWFALL IN JANUARY THROUGH MARCH 2003 WAS ALSO ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
FACT...RESIDENTS OF NEWBERRY ENDURED THE SNOWIEST JANUARY ON RECORD
IN 2003.
EVEN IF THE WINTER IS MILD OVERALL WITH BELOW NORMAL TOTAL
SNOWFALL...THERE CAN BE PERIODS OF INTENSE COLD AND HEAVY SNOW. THE
SHORTER TERM VARIABILITY OF WEATHER COULD FAVOR FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF WEEKS THAT BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH LOCKS ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. FOR INSTANCE...HEAVY SNOW FELL ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER
MICHIGAN IN FEBRUARY THROUGH EARLY MARCH 1995...WITH AS MUCH AS 74
INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF AT HOUGHTON IN FEBRUARY WHEN COLD CANADIAN
AIRMASSES FREQUENTED THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN FACT... FEBRUARY 1995
GOES DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE SECOND SNOWIEST FEBRUARY AT
HOUGHTON. BUT SNOWFALL AT HOUGHTON IN DECEMBER 1994 AND JANUARY 1995
WAS SO MUCH BELOW NORMAL WHEN THE EL NINO INFLUENCE REPEATEDLY
PUSHED MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES THAT TOTAL 1994-95
SEASONAL SNOWFALL ENDED UP JUST 82 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF WARMER WATER
IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THIS WINTER SUGGESTS THE
MEAN 4-MONTH TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER 2009 THROUGH MARCH 2010 WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL. SEASONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.
THIRTY YEAR NORMALS USED ARE FOR THE PERIOD OF 1971 THROUGH 2000.
ALL CLIMATE DATA LISTED IN THIS PRODUCT ARE UNOFFICIAL. FOR OFFICIAL
DATA...PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER AT
WWW.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/OA/NCDC.HTML (ALL LOWER CASE).
CHECK OUT WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AND THEIR LONG RANGE
PREDICTIONS.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CLIMATE/L3MTO.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE) TO ACCESS
DETAILED LOCAL THREE-MONTH AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR A NUMBER
OF SITES IN UPPER MICHIGAN.
KC
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