[top]
000
FXUS63 KMPX 082336
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
536 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF KMSP AT TAF RELEASE. A COLD
FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN IA WHILE A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS EAST TO THE SOUTH OF KEAU. THE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST WI BY 09/06Z WITH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS IN THE 035-045 FOOT RANGE COMMON THIS
EVENING. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. CLEARING WILL
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. ONLY A FEW-SCT CLOUDS ON MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY. SOME GUSTS TO 16 TO 18 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR KEAU.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TRENDS THIS
EVENING. EARLIER..THE NAM WAS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION DEVELOPING
ON THE 295 SURFACE WHERE THE 40-50K STUFF WAS FORMING AND THEN
EXPANDING TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THE RUC IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT THE BAND OF CLOUDS IS REMAINING IN PLACE
WITHE A BIT LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. WILL LET THE
CLOUDS FILL IN THIS EVENING AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA EAST
CENTRAL MN INTO WI. THE RUC IS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 400 J/KG
MU CAPE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. DECENT
DRYING AND SINKING DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WITH GOOD CLEARING
ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MON-WED AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. DEW POINT TEMPS MAY BE LOWER
THAN GUID AND TEMPS MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN GUID. TIMING ON THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN A LITTLE IN QUESTION BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO INCH UP TO A LITTLE MORE THAN NORMAL STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK OFF A LITTLE ON THE FRONTAL
BAND MOVING IN BY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC THEN DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE MORE OF AN UPPER WAVE. MODELS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SE COAST WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS COULD A AFFECT THE SPEED OF THINGS IN THE
PLAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ANY SLOWING WILL MEAN CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE
CWA. TEMPS STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE TIME
SERIES SHOWS A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD NORMAL. THE 500 MB MEAN
CHARTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CIRCUMPOLAR VORTEX DEVELOPING WEST OF
AK FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WHICH WOULD STILL MEAN NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR US.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/JPR
[top]
000
FXUS63 KDLH 082326
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
526 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...UPDATE FOR 00Z TAFS
GENERALLY VFR CIG/VIS ASSOC WITH SFC LOW CENTERED OVR SWRN MN AT
21Z. SYSTEM MOVES THRU CWA RATHER RAPIDLY. PRECIP SHUD END BY
06Z...WITH CIGS BREAKING OUT QUICKLY BHND SYSTEM AS DEEP LYR MSTR
ADVECTS EWD. FG SHUD NOT BE WIDESPREAD WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
OVNGT. LEFT IN MENTION OF FG AT HYR WHERE WLY WINDS TEND TO DIE
DOWN TO NEARLY CALM. MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH RA FALLS THIS EVE
AND HOW WET THE GROUND REMAINS OVNGT. WILL RE-ASSESS PRIOR TO 06Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
AT 3 PM...AN AREA OF RAIN WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO A LINE NORTH AND
WEST OF A PARK RAPIDS TO ELY AND GRAND MARAIS LINE. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...THERE WAS SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN THE RAIN BAND AREA TO THE
MID 60S FROM SIREN TO PHILLIPS.
THE 12Z/18Z MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
SYNOPTIC SCALE TRENDS AND WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS. THINK THE 18Z
NAM HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...
AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY IN THIS DIRECTION. OVERRUNNING TO THE NORTH
OF A SURFACE AND H85 WARM FRONT WAS CAUSING THE RAIN. THE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH FGEN WAS HELPING TO FOCUS THE
FAIRLY NARROW BAND. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD TAKEN ON
SOMEWHAT OF A LEAF PATTERN...WITH BROAD DIVERGENCE AT H3. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MN...THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
AND TO EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MONDAY. H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF NE MN DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL STICK WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...DUE TO RELATIVELY
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND BREAKS BETWEEN TRANSITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY AREAS OF MORE PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY FORM IN PIVOT AREAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE REGION. HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS QUITE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WED NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...CHALLENGING FCST AS REGION REMAINS UNDER
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC RIDGING IN PLACE WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. MDLS
HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL UVV WITHIN MORE FAVORED REGION OF
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET NORTH OF BORDER. DEEP LAYER RH WOULD
SUGGEST BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP THUR WILL BE ALONG WEST AND
NRN PART OF CWA ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. PACNW MID LVL
TROF SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PROMOTING MORE ORGANIZED SFC
LOW OVER CTRL PLAINS. MDLS DIVERGE FRI/SAT WITH REGARD TO
TRACK/STRENGTH OF SFC LOW. EC EJECTS LOW QUICKLY INTO ONTARIO WILE
OPS GFS HOLDS SYSTEM OVER KS. AN INSPECTION OF GEFS MEMBERS SHOWS
A CLUSTER OF LOWS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SECOND CLUSTER OVER
WRN KS. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON EITHER ONE SO HAVE KEPT POPS
TRENDING TOWARDS NWRN CWA WHERE SYNOPTIC SCALE DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND AVERAGE POSITION OF BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE WOULD BE COLLOCATED.
MDLS CONTINUE DIFFERENCE THROUGH WEEKEND AS EC CLEARS RAIN EAST OF
CWA LATE SATURDAY WHILE GFS BRINGS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO CWA
SAT/SUN. WILL LEAVE EXISTING FCST...WHICH IS DRY...FOR WEEKEND
UNTIL MDLS ACN TREND TOWARDS MORE CONSENSUS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
DECK AND SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. CLOUD BASES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
AS LOW LEVELS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CHARACTER. UNCERTAINTY IN
FCST THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ENDS AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND
NORTHWEST. BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z...KHYR/KDLH TERMINALS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
A PERIOD OF LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY MVFR...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO BR.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 53 30 51 / 30 0 10 10
INL 32 48 26 51 / 30 0 10 10
BRD 32 53 26 56 / 30 0 10 10
HYR 34 55 27 54 / 20 0 10 10
ASX 37 54 28 55 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
04
000
FXUS63 KDLH 082137
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...MAIN SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON RAINFALL THIS EVENING.
AT 3 PM...AN AREA OF RAIN WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO A LINE NORTH AND
WEST OF A PARK RAPIDS TO ELY AND GRAND MARAIS LINE. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA...THERE WAS SOME INTERMITTENT SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S IN THE RAIN BAND AREA TO THE
MID 60S FROM SIREN TO PHILLIPS.
THE 12Z/18Z MODELS WERE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
SYNOPTIC SCALE TRENDS AND WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS. THINK THE 18Z
NAM HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...
AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY IN THIS DIRECTION. OVERRUNNING TO THE NORTH
OF A SURFACE AND H85 WARM FRONT WAS CAUSING THE RAIN. THE
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH FGEN WAS HELPING TO FOCUS THE
FAIRLY NARROW BAND. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGERY HAD TAKEN ON
SOMEWHAT OF A LEAF PATTERN...WITH BROAD DIVERGENCE AT H3. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MN...THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
AND TO EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z MONDAY. H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF NE MN DURING THE EVENING...BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT. SKY COVER SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER THE EVENING HOURS.
WILL STICK WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...DUE TO RELATIVELY
FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND BREAKS BETWEEN TRANSITIONS IN
PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY AREAS OF MORE PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY FORM IN PIVOT AREAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER ACROSS
THE REGION. HAVE ADDED A SMALL CHANCE OF POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE TIME PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY DUE
TO A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH IS QUITE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WED NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...CHALLENGING FCST AS REGION REMAINS UNDER
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC RIDGING IN PLACE WED NIGHT/THURSDAY. MDLS
HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL UVV WITHIN MORE FAVORED REGION OF
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET NORTH OF BORDER. DEEP LAYER RH WOULD
SUGGEST BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP THUR WILL BE ALONG WEST AND
NRN PART OF CWA ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT. PACNW MID LVL
TROF SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PROMOTING MORE ORGANIZED SFC
LOW OVER CTRL PLAINS. MDLS DIVERGE FRI/SAT WITH REGARD TO
TRACK/STRENGTH OF SFC LOW. EC EJECTS LOW QUICKLY INTO ONTARIO WILE
OPS GFS HOLDS SYSTEM OVER KS. AN INSPECTION OF GEFS MEMBERS SHOWS
A CLUSTER OF LOWS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SECOND CLUSTER OVER
WRN KS. CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ON EITHER ONE SO HAVE KEPT POPS
TRENDING TOWARDS NWRN CWA WHERE SYNOPTIC SCALE DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND AVERAGE POSITION OF BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE WOULD BE COLLOCATED.
MDLS CONTINUE DIFFERENCE THROUGH WEEKEND AS EC CLEARS RAIN EAST OF
CWA LATE SATURDAY WHILE GFS BRINGS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO CWA
SAT/SUN. WILL LEAVE EXISTING FCST...WHICH IS DRY...FOR WEEKEND
UNTIL MDLS ACN TREND TOWARDS MORE CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
DECK AND SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. CLOUD BASES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
AS LOW LEVELS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CHARACTER. UNCERTAINTY IN
FCST THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ENDS AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND
NORTHWEST. BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z...KHYR/KDLH TERMINALS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
A PERIOD OF LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY MVFR...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO BR.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 53 30 51 / 30 0 10 10
INL 32 48 26 51 / 30 0 10 10
BRD 32 53 26 56 / 30 0 10 10
HYR 34 55 27 54 / 20 0 10 10
ASX 37 54 28 55 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
06/CANNON/CANNON
000
FXUS63 KMPX 082118
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TRENDS THIS
EVENING. EARLIER..THE NAM WAS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION DEVELOPING
ON THE 295 SURFACE WHERE THE 40-50K STUFF WAS FORMING AND THEN
EXPANDING TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THE RUC IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT THE BAND OF CLOUDS IS REMAINING IN PLACE
WITHE A BIT LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING BACK TO THE SW. WILL LET THE
CLOUDS FILL IN THIS EVENING AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA EAST
CENTRAL MN INTO WI. THE RUC IS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 400 J/KG
MU CAPE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. DECENT
DRYING AND SINKING DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WITH GOOD CLEARING
ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MON-WED AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. DEW POINT TEMPS MAY BE LOWER
THAN GUID AND TEMPS MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN GUID. TIMING ON THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN A LITTLE IN QUESTION BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES DO INCH UP TO A LITTLE MORE THAN NORMAL STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BACK OFF A LITTLE ON THE FRONTAL
BAND MOVING IN BY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND EC THEN DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW FARTHER NORTH. THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE MORE OF AN UPPER WAVE. MODELS EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SE COAST WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS COULD A AFFECT THE SPEED OF THINGS IN THE
PLAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT ANY SLOWING WILL MEAN CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE
CWA. TEMPS STILL RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE TIME
SERIES SHOWS A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD NORMAL. THE 500 MB MEAN
CHARTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE CIRCUMPOLAR VORTEX DEVELOPING WEST OF
AK FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WHICH WOULD STILL MEAN NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR US.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS ISSUANCE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN
IOWA AT 17Z WILL CONTINUE ON INTO SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING HAS LED TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM KCNB TO KOVL AND KRWF TO KFCM. BASES ARE BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FT OR SO AND THE CLOUD BAND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KRGK AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
MN...INCLUDING THE MSP METRO...AND WEST CENT WI. EXPANSION WILL
TAKE SOME TIME SO INTERMITTENT SCT-BKN CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSP
AND KRNH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. THESE CLOUDS
WOULD MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW INTO THIS EVENING. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING HAVE TRENDED BACK ON THE COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND RAISED BASES A FEW HUNDRED FEET WHILE KEEPING THEM MVFR
THIS EVENING AT KMSP AND KRNH BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.
KEAU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT.
KRWF/KAXN/KSTC SHOULD REMAIN AT LOW END VFR. LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES THE LOW BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP DRIZZLE IN
THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING FROM KMSP
EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENT MN AS THE
LOW MOVES BY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
DEPART LATER ON TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. ..MDB..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
JPR/MDB
000
FXUS63 KMPX 081803
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1203 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
ADDED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH VETERANS DAY.
GOES WV LOOP AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH
TRYING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SUCCEED
SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THEN GET SUPPRESSED BACK TO THE SOUTH
TEMPORARILY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. AT THE SFC...THE
FRONT THAT PASSED SATURDAY MORNING IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE UP THIS
FRONT TODAY AND PASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS EVE.
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO JUST ENTER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS OVER THIS SOLUTION. GIVEN
THIS...MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE DOWN
AS IS TYPICAL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE PROBLEM REMAINS
SATURATION IN THE GUIDANCE. MID-LEVEL SATURATION IS THERE MUCH OF
TODAY...THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TONIGHT NEAR THE LOW.
THIS DISJOINTMENT WARRANTS ONLY THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES THAT HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST. ANY PRECIP MAY BE
THE FORM OF DRIZZLE NEAR THE LOW THIS EVE. THE CAVEAT THERE IS IF
STRATUS CAN DEVELOP. SHOULD BE SOME GIVEN THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LOW-LEVEL ADIABATIC OMEGA. THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY ADVECT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
FOR TEMPS TODAY...HAVE USED A MIX-DOWN FROM 925MB FOR OUR SOUTH
AND EAST WHICH SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THROUGH MID-AFTN THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM
FAIRMONT TO THE SE TWIN CITIES METRO INTO WRN WI.
A STRONG PACIFIC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA TUE MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM MONDAY TO VETERANS DAY WAS
TO LOWER THE DEW POINTS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTNS. THIS IS IN
PART DUE TO WHAT YESTERDAYS FULL-SUN AFTN REVEALED...WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. MIXING FROM A SHALLOW 950MB ON
TUES...BOTH THE GFS/NAM GAVE SIMILAR DEW POINTS ON TUE. HAVE
TRENDED A GOOD PORTION OF THAT WAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH...IT SHOULD BE A COOLER NIGHT MON...ALTHOUGH ONLY NEAR
NORMAL. RETURN FLOW STILL LOOKS STRONG WED AND THU AND CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS THOSE DAYS. COMBINATION OF DRYNESS AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOKS HIGHEST ON WED. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NRN MN ON WED ON 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND REMAINS TO BE TOO DRY FOR
ANYTHING WITH THAT. NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT IS LIKELY STILL
SOMETIME IN THE THU-FRI FRAME. OVERALL...A MILD AND SUN-FILLED
WINTER HAZARD AWARENESS WEEK IS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS ISSUANCE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN
IOWA AT 17Z WILL CONTINUE ON INTO SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING HAS LED TO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT FROM KCNB TO KOVL AND KRWF TO KFCM. BASES ARE BETWEEN
4000 AND 5000 FT OR SO AND THE CLOUD BAND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KRGK AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
MN...INCLUDING THE MSP METRO...AND WEST CENT WI. EXPANSION WILL
TAKE SOME TIME SO INTERMITTENT SCT-BKN CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT KMSP
AND KRNH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW
LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE. THESE CLOUDS
WOULD MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW INTO THIS EVENING. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING HAVE TRENDED BACK ON THE COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND RAISED BASES A FEW HUNDRED FEET WHILE KEEPING THEM MVFR
THIS EVENING AT KMSP AND KRNH BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.
KEAU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FT.
KRWF/KAXN/KSTC SHOULD REMAIN AT LOW END VFR. LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIES THE LOW BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP DRIZZLE IN
THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING FROM KMSP
EASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENT MN AS THE
LOW MOVES BY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW
CROSSES THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY
DEPART LATER ON TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. ..MDB..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MTF/MDB
000
FXUS63 KDLH 081745 AAB
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
DECK AND SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. CLOUD BASES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
AS LOW LEVELS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CHARACTER. UNCERTAINTY IN
FCST THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ENDS AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST.
BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z...KHYR/KDLH TERMINALS SUSCEPTIBLE TO A PERIOD OF
LOWERING CEILINGS...MAINLY MVFR...AND POSSIBLY SOME MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY DUE TO BR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR THIS MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN 0.04 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION AT PILLAGER...AS WELL AS AT PHILBROOK AND LITTLE
FALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN SOUTH OF
THIS BAND. STRONG OVERRUNNING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN APPEARED TO BE
GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN. MOST OF THE MODELS LIFT THIS
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...AND THE AREA SHOULD ACTUALLY FILL IN
ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40/SCT ACROSS MUCH OF NE
MN BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIVOT
POINT WHICH COULD SEE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...
SATELLITE REPRESENTATIONS HINT AT SOMEWHAT OF A LEAF PATTERN WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FURTHER EXPANSION IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE. INDEED...
H3 DIVERGENCE IS BROAD AND FAIRLY STRONG ACCORDING TO GFS. THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT...SO HAVE
TRIMMED POPS A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. MAY NOT HAVE BACKED OFF
ENOUGH IN SOME SPOTS...SO WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN AREAS WHERE
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER
VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AT MID-LEVELS TODAY...THEN LOWER
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 08Z RESULTED IN
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE FA WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 20S F. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE FA IN WAA ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN
IS ON PCPN TODAY. MODELS QPF FIELDS ARE ALL OVER DONE WITH SO MUCH
DRY AIR...NOT ONLY OVER THE FA...BUT UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SEEN ON
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KABR/CWPL/KBIS WHERE LOWEST 10K FT IS DRY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A DRY LOW LAYER...EVEN THOUGH SOME
MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY WITH JUST A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT IN THE
EVENING AND HAVE REMOVED PCPN MENTION. DID ADD SOME FOG THIS EVENING
TO FAR SE QUAD OF THE WI FA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER THEN DRIES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC
COLD FRONT GOES BY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AND LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RETURN SRLY FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 35 52 30 / 40 10 0 10
INL 50 32 48 26 / 30 10 0 10
BRD 54 34 53 30 / 40 10 0 10
HYR 57 36 55 28 / 20 10 0 10
ASX 55 37 54 30 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
06/CANNON/CANNON
000
FXUS63 KDLH 081628
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1028 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR THIS MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN 0.04 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION AT PILLAGER...AS WELL AS AT PHILBROOK AND LITTLE
FALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN SOUTH OF
THIS BAND. STRONG OVERRUNNING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN APPEARED TO BE
GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN. MOST OF THE MODELS LIFT THIS
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...AND THE AREA SHOULD ACTUALLY FILL IN
ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40/SCT ACROSS MUCH OF NE
MN BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIVOT
POINT WHICH COULD SEE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...
SATELLITE REPRESENTATIONS HINT AT SOMEWHAT OF A LEAF PATTERN WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FURTHER EXPANSION IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE. INDEED...
H3 DIVERGENCE IS BROAD AND FAIRLY STRONG ACCORDING TO GFS. THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT...SO HAVE
TRIMMED POPS A FEW DEGREES IN SPOTS. MAY NOT HAVE BACKED OFF
ENOUGH IN SOME SPOTS...SO WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN AREAS WHERE
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER
VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AT MID-LEVELS TODAY...THEN LOWER
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 08Z RESULTED IN
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE FA WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 20S F. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE FA IN WAA ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN
IS ON PCPN TODAY. MODELS QPF FIELDS ARE ALL OVER DONE WITH SO MUCH
DRY AIR...NOT ONLY OVER THE FA...BUT UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SEEN ON
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KABR/CWPL/KBIS WHERE LOWEST 10K FT IS DRY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A DRY LOW LAYER...EVEN THOUGH SOME
MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY WITH JUST A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT IN THE
EVENING AND HAVE REMOVED PCPN MENTION. DID ADD SOME FOG THIS EVENING
TO FAR SE QUAD OF THE WI FA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER THEN DRIES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC
COLD FRONT GOES BY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AND LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RETURN SRLY FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 35 52 30 / 40 10 0 10
INL 50 32 48 26 / 30 10 0 10
BRD 54 34 53 30 / 40 10 0 10
HYR 57 36 55 28 / 20 10 0 10
ASX 55 37 54 30 / 20 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
06/CANNON
000
FXUS63 KDLH 081208
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
608 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...AND LINGER OVER THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER
VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT RAIN WILL BE IN THE VFR RANGE.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AT MID-LEVELS TODAY...THEN LOWER
TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...RESULTING IN AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 08Z RESULTED IN
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE FA WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 20S F. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE FA IN WAA ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN
IS ON PCPN TODAY. MODELS QPF FIELDS ARE ALL OVER DONE WITH SO MUCH
DRY AIR...NOT ONLY OVER THE FA...BUT UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SEEN ON
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KABR/CWPL/KBIS WHERE LOWEST 10K FT IS DRY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A DRY LOW LAYER...EVEN THOUGH SOME
MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY WITH JUST A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT IN THE
EVENING AND HAVE REMOVED PCPN MENTION. DID ADD SOME FOG THIS EVENING
TO FAR SE QUAD OF THE WI FA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER THEN DRIES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC
COLD FRONT GOES BY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY.
EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AND LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RETURN SRLY FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. AN INC IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SUN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
VERY SLIM UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PD...WHERE A PROB30 IS WARRANTED
AT KINL AND KHIB. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
DAY SUN.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 35 52 30 / 10 10 0 10
INL 54 32 48 26 / 10 10 0 10
BRD 56 34 53 30 / 10 10 0 10
HYR 57 36 55 28 / 10 10 0 10
ASX 55 37 54 30 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
BERDES/BERDES/BERDES
000
FXUS63 KMPX 081135
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
535 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 237 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH VETERANS DAY.
GOES WV LOOP AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES SHOWS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH
TRYING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SUCCEED
SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THEN GET SUPPRESSED BACK TO THE SOUTH
TEMPORARILY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. AT THE SFC...THE
FRONT THAT PASSED SATURDAY MORNING IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE UP THIS
FRONT TODAY AND PASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS EVE.
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO JUST ENTER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS OVER THIS SOLUTION. GIVEN
THIS...MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE DOWN
AS IS TYPICAL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE PROBLEM REMAINS
SATURATION IN THE GUIDANCE. MID-LEVEL SATURATION IS THERE MUCH OF
TODAY...THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TONIGHT NEAR THE LOW.
THIS DISJOINTMENT WARRANTS ONLY THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES THAT HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST. ANY PRECIP MAY BE
THE FORM OF DRIZZLE NEAR THE LOW THIS EVE. THE CAVEAT THERE IS IF
STRATUS CAN DEVELOP. SHOULD BE SOME GIVEN THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LOW-LEVEL ADIABATIC OMEGA. THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY ADVECT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
FOR TEMPS TODAY...HAVE USED A MIX-DOWN FROM 925MB FOR OUR SOUTH
AND EAST WHICH SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THROUGH MID-AFTN THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM
FAIRMONT TO THE SE TWIN CITIES METRO INTO WRN WI.
A STRONG PACIFIC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA TUE MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM MONDAY TO VETERANS DAY WAS
TO LOWER THE DEW POINTS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTNS. THIS IS IN
PART DUE TO WHAT YESTERDAYS FULL-SUN AFTN REVEALED...WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. MIXING FROM A SHALLOW 950MB ON
TUES...BOTH THE GFS/NAM GAVE SIMILAR DEW POINTS ON TUE. HAVE
TRENDED A GOOD PORTION OF THAT WAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH...IT SHOULD BE A COOLER NIGHT MON...ALTHOUGH ONLY NEAR
NORMAL. RETURN FLOW STILL LOOKS STRONG WED AND THU AND CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS THOSE DAYS. COMBINATION OF DRYNESS AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOKS HIGHEST ON WED. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NRN MN ON WED ON 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND REMAINS TO BE TOO DRY FOR
ANYTHING WITH THAT. NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT IS LIKELY STILL
SOMETIME IN THE THU-FRI FRAME. OVERALL...A MILD AND SUN-FILLED
WINTER HAZARD AWARENESS WEEK IS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EXPECT SOME STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN PORTION OF MN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS SFC LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA. CEILINGS COULD
LOWER BETWEEN 1500-3000 FEET AGL LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEATHER CONDS IMPROVE MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MTF/JM
000
FXUS63 KDLH 080851
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
251 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 08Z RESULTED IN
VERY DRY AIR OVER THE FA WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 20S F. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE FA IN WAA ALOFT. MAIN CONCERN
IS ON PCPN TODAY. MODELS QPF FIELDS ARE ALL OVER DONE WITH SO MUCH
DRY AIR...NOT ONLY OVER THE FA...BUT UPSTREAM AS WELL AS SEEN ON
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM KABR/CWPL/KBIS WHERE LOWEST 10K FT IS DRY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A DRY LOW LAYER...EVEN THOUGH SOME
MOISTENING OCCURS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR TODAY WITH JUST A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAXIMIZED AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT IN THE
EVENING AND HAVE REMOVED PCPN MENTION. DID ADD SOME FOG THIS EVENING
TO FAR SE QUAD OF THE WI FA WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
GREATEST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER THEN DRIES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC
COLD FRONT GOES BY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON MONDAY.
.EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT FAIRLY QUIET...WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AND LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RETURN SRLY FLOW ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY
GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. AN INC IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SUN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
VERY SLIM UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PD...WHERE A PROB30 IS WARRANTED
AT KINL AND KHIB. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
DAY SUN.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 35 52 30 / 10 10 0 10
INL 54 32 48 26 / 10 10 0 10
BRD 56 34 53 30 / 10 10 0 10
HYR 57 36 55 28 / 10 10 0 10
ASX 55 37 54 30 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
GSF/BERDES
000
FXUS63 KMPX 080837
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
237 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH VETERANS DAY.
GOES WV LOOP AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSES SHOWS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH
TRYING TO EXPAND BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SUCCEED
SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT THEN GET SUPPRESSED BACK TO THE SOUTH
TEMPORARILY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES. AT THE SFC...THE
FRONT THAT PASSED SATURDAY MORNING IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL MOVE UP THIS
FRONT TODAY AND PASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA THIS EVE.
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO JUST ENTER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS OVER THIS SOLUTION. GIVEN
THIS...MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE DOWN
AS IS TYPICAL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TODAY. THE PROBLEM REMAINS
SATURATION IN THE GUIDANCE. MID-LEVEL SATURATION IS THERE MUCH OF
TODAY...THEN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES TONIGHT NEAR THE LOW.
THIS DISJOINTMENT WARRANTS ONLY THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES THAT HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST. ANY PRECIP MAY BE
THE FORM OF DRIZZLE NEAR THE LOW THIS EVE. THE CAVEAT THERE IS IF
STRATUS CAN DEVELOP. SHOULD BE SOME GIVEN THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND LOW-LEVEL ADIABATIC OMEGA. THIS STRATUS WILL LIKELY ADVECT
EAST OF THE AREA BY MON MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH.
FOR TEMPS TODAY...HAVE USED A MIX-DOWN FROM 925MB FOR OUR SOUTH
AND EAST WHICH SHOULD SEE MORE SUN THROUGH MID-AFTN THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S STILL SHOULD BE REALIZED FROM
FAIRMONT TO THE SE TWIN CITIES METRO INTO WRN WI.
A STRONG PACIFIC HIGH IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA TUE MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM MONDAY TO VETERANS DAY WAS
TO LOWER THE DEW POINTS CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTNS. THIS IS IN
PART DUE TO WHAT YESTERDAYS FULL-SUN AFTN REVEALED...WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. MIXING FROM A SHALLOW 950MB ON
TUES...BOTH THE GFS/NAM GAVE SIMILAR DEW POINTS ON TUE. HAVE
TRENDED A GOOD PORTION OF THAT WAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH...IT SHOULD BE A COOLER NIGHT MON...ALTHOUGH ONLY NEAR
NORMAL. RETURN FLOW STILL LOOKS STRONG WED AND THU AND CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS THOSE DAYS. COMBINATION OF DRYNESS AND GUSTY
WINDS LOOKS HIGHEST ON WED. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NRN MN ON WED ON 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND REMAINS TO BE TOO DRY FOR
ANYTHING WITH THAT. NEXT SYSTEM AFTER THAT IS LIKELY STILL
SOMETIME IN THE THU-FRI FRAME. OVERALL...A MILD AND SUN-FILLED
WINTER HAZARD AWARENESS WEEK IS IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING FROM NEAR A KDEN-KMCI-KCHI LINE LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN
AND WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE ON THE WEST END OF THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL CEILINGS IN THE 120-150 FOOT RANGE ALREADY
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN PROBLEM AHEAD IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.
NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES FOR KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU SHOW THE
SATURATION IN THE 025-030 FOOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPGLIDE
AND ADIABATIC OMEGA IS SHOWN ON THE LOW LEVEL THETA SURFACES FOR
SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES. THIS MAY YIELD A FEW
HOURS OF DRIZZLE...PERHAPS MVFR VISIBILITY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES BY. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
WITH 6SM -DZ. TAF SITES TO THE WEST AND NORTH LOOK TO BE VFR
THROUGH THE PD WITH PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY AT NEAR 10
KNOTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MTF/RAH
000
FXUS63 KDLH 080536
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. AN INC IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SUN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
VERY SLIM UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PD...WHERE A PROB30 IS WARRANTED
AT KINL AND KHIB. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE
DAY SUN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PD. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THROUGH
TONIGHT BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. AN INC IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
$$
UPDATE...WE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT BY QUITE A BIT...ALONG
WITH DEC CLOUD COVER. WITH TD`S CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVERHEAD...WE EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS OF 3 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WERE HEADED INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS...BUT
MAINLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID
50S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF NW WI.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE TO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT...
WITH OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM SE MN TO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING BETTER
POPS/QPF IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INCREASING FGEN SHOULD BRING SOME WDLY SCT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO
FAIRLY LOW MOISTURE AND THE SYSTEM BEING EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF FROM
THE GULF. IT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE IT BRINGS WITH
IT...AND BATTLE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. STILL
THINK QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY 0.10 INCH OR LESS.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
THERMAL TROUGH/H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN MN ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS FOR A WHILE. HIGHS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S
SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO THE 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CWA
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE EXPECTED WITH
GENERAL ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN. LOW LVL THETAE AXIS SUGGESTS BDRY
WILL STALL/DISSIPATE ACROSS SE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY. GFS MAINTAINS
EXISTING DRY FCST WHEREAS EC/GEM SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME POPS/QPF. UNSETTLED PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS AS SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM ROCKIES GENERATES A WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE IN
LOW/MID LVLS. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS SWINGS INTO CWA ON HEELS OF
LLJ THURSDAY SO POPS INCREASED AT THAT TIME. SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS CWA THUR NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GFS/EC TOTALLY DIVERGE WITH SFC/MID LVL
PATTERN FRI/SAT AS EC BUILDS SFC HIGH INTO MOST OF CWA...PUSHING
MOST FORCING SOUTH OF REGION. GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOPRESS AND
SWINGS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO CWA. WILL LEAN WITH EC/HPC GUIDANCE
AT THIS POINT AS MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS DONT SUPPORT OPS GFS. &&
AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AIR...AND
MDT/STRONG MECHANICAL MIXING LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. GUSTY WINDS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY 0Z.. EXPECT
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 53 32 51 / 0 20 20 10
INL 27 52 31 47 / 0 20 20 0
BRD 30 54 33 54 / 0 20 20 0
HYR 26 57 34 54 / 0 30 20 10
ASX 30 55 35 54 / 0 30 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
LONKA/BERDES/BERDES
000
FXUS63 KMPX 080532
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1132 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WARM FRONT DEVELOPING FROM NEAR A KDEN-KMCI-KCHI LINE LATE THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MN
AND WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE ON THE WEST END OF THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL CEILINGS IN THE 120-150 FOOT RANGE ALREADY
SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST OVERNIGHT. MAIN PROBLEM AHEAD IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI.
NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES FOR KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU SHOW THE
SATURATION IN THE 025-030 FOOT RANGE. IN ADDITION...STRONG UPGLIDE
AND ADIABATIC OMEGA IS SHOWN ON THE LOW LEVEL THETA SURFACES FOR
SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES. THIS MAY YIELD A FEW
HOURS OF DRIZZLE...PERHAPS MVFR VISIBILITY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES BY. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
WITH 6SM -DZ. TAF SITES TO THE WEST AND NORTH LOOK TO BE VFR
THROUGH THE PD WITH PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST ON SUNDAY AT NEAR 10
KNOTS THEN SHIFT TO THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AREA UNDER MILD ZONAL FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT NOW WELL
SE OF CWA. VERY DRY AND MILD PAC HIGH IS SETTLING OVER SRN MN
RESULTING IN THE VERY MILD AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN THEME FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A
HALF WILL BE FOR ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 HEIGHTS TO REMAIN OVER
ALASKA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR W TO SW FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
FOR TONIGHT...BUMPED UP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVED
LOWS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE UPPER 30S AND EXPECTED
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BROUGHT NUMBERS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE. FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY...12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO PAINT A BLEAK PICTURE
FOR SEEING RAINFALL. UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE BRINGING IN RAIN
CHANCES IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAC NW. IT IS FORECAST TO QUICK
RIDE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW...LEADING TO SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE FRONT OF NEB/IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING CLOUD COVER BACK
INTO THE AREA. FOR RAIN...CURRENT RHS IN THE LOW 20S RIGHT NOW ARE
A SIGN OF WHAT ANY RAINFALL MUST OVERCOME TOMORROW IF IT IS TO
REACH THE SFC. THE FORCING FOR THE PRECIP IS THERE...BUT ALL
RATHER WEAK...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL MN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO STILL BE FAIRLY DRY. TO TOP IT OFF...SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. SO...ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN HALF OF CWA...TRANSITIONING OVER
TO WEST CENT WIS IN THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS SET
IN. SO HAVE INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED...10 AS OPPOSED TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
FOR NEXT WEEK...DRY PAC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH ANY CONCERNS
TURNING TO FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AREA
GETS ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH AND SRLY WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WITH
TEMPERATURES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THIS TIME
FRAME...NOT FEELING TO CONFIDENT IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT...SO
BASICALLY STUCK WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHERE THINGS GO IN
THE FUTURE.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/MPG
000
FXUS63 KMPX 080126 AAA
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
726 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DRY COLUMN IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
20S HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING.
RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN HAVE SEEN
TEMPS DROP 17 DEGREES BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM. OTHERWISE...ALL IS
WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AREA UNDER MILD ZONAL FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT NOW WELL
SE OF CWA. VERY DRY AND MILD PAC HIGH IS SETTLING OVER SRN MN
RESULTING IN THE VERY MILD AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN THEME FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A
HALF WILL BE FOR ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 HEIGHTS TO REMAIN OVER
ALASKA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR W TO SW FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
FOR TONIGHT...BUMPED UP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVED
LOWS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE UPPER 30S AND EXPECTED
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BROUGHT NUMBERS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE. FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY...12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO PAINT A BLEAK PICTURE
FOR SEEING RAINFALL. UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE BRINGING IN RAIN
CHANCES IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAC NW. IT IS FORECAST TO QUICK
RIDE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW...LEADING TO SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE FRONT OF NEB/IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING CLOUD COVER BACK
INTO THE AREA. FOR RAIN...CURRENT RHS IN THE LOW 20S RIGHT NOW ARE
A SIGN OF WHAT ANY RAINFALL MUST OVERCOME TOMORROW IF IT IS TO
REACH THE SFC. THE FORCING FOR THE PRECIP IS THERE...BUT ALL
RATHER WEAK...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL MN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO STILL BE FAIRLY DRY. TO TOP IT OFF...SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. SO...ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN HALF OF CWA...TRANSITIONING OVER
TO WEST CENT WIS IN THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS SET
IN. SO HAVE INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED...10 AS OPPOSED TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
FOR NEXT WEEK...DRY PAC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH ANY CONCERNS
TURNING TO FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AREA
GETS ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH AND SRLY WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WITH
TEMPERATURES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THIS TIME
FRAME...NOT FEELING TO CONFIDENT IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT...SO
BASICALLY STUCK WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHERE THINGS GO IN
THE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THRU 12Z AS WINDS WILL BECOME E/SE BY SUNRISE
AND UNTIL 6 KTS. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR AND ROUGHLY 9000` OR ABOVE.
AFT 15/18Z...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF LOWER
CEILINGS AND THE CHANCE OF -RA. PREVIOUS TAFS ONLY HAD CEILINGS AOB
8000`. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE AT LEAST AN INTRODUCTION
OF LOWER CLDS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 2500` WITH CEILINGS AOB 4000`.
LATER TAFS CAN REFLECT ON THIS CURRENT TREND. ..JLT..
CWSU DISCUSSION...
LATEST HPC ANALYSIS SHOWING CLD FNT EXTNDG FM LK SUPERIOR THRU
WI/IA/SRN NE, WITH RDGG BUILDING INTO WRN ZMP. THRU THE PERIOD A WV
WITH DEVELOP ON THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FNT NR NW KS AND MOV
INTO CNTL IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING PSBLTY OF -RA TO SRN
MN.
LATEST MDL RUNS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THE PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. START THE TAF WITH SCT200. BRING IN BKN140
BKN200 AFT 07Z. BY 18Z SKY COND WILL BE BKN030, AND BY 22Z BKN020
AND WILL STAY THERE THRU TAF END. WE MAY HAVE VCSH AFT 22Z;
OTHERWISE NO WX EXCPTD. DON`T EXPCT THE VIS TO DROP BLO P6SM. WNDS
WILL START WESTERLY, THEN BECOME EASTERLY AFT 06Z. SPDS WILL FOLLOW
A DIURNAL CURVE BETWEEN 3 AND 9 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/MPG/JLT
000
FXUS63 KDLH 080010 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
610 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PD. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THROUGH
TONIGHT BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. AN INC IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
$$
.UPDATE...WE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT BY QUITE A BIT...ALONG
WITH DEC CLOUD COVER. WITH TD`S CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVERHEAD...WE EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS OF 3 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WERE HEADED INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS...BUT
MAINLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID
50S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF NW WI.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE TO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT...
WITH OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM SE MN TO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING BETTER
POPS/QPF IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INCREASING FGEN SHOULD BRING SOME WDLY SCT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO
FAIRLY LOW MOISTURE AND THE SYSTEM BEING EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF FROM
THE GULF. IT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE IT BRINGS WITH
IT...AND BATTLE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. STILL
THINK QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY 0.10 INCH OR LESS.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
THERMAL TROUGH/H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN MN ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS FOR A WHILE. HIGHS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S
SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO THE 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CWA
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE EXPECTED WITH
GENERAL ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN. LOW LVL THETAE AXIS SUGGESTS BDRY
WILL STALL/DISSIPATE ACROSS SE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY. GFS MAINTAINS
EXISTING DRY FCST WHEREAS EC/GEM SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME POPS/QPF. UNSETTLED PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS AS SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM ROCKIES GENERATES A WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE IN
LOW/MID LVLS. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS SWINGS INTO CWA ON HEELS OF
LLJ THURSDAY SO POPS INCREASED AT THAT TIME. SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS CWA THUR NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GFS/EC TOTALLY DIVERGE WITH SFC/MID LVL
PATTERN FRI/SAT AS EC BUILDS SFC HIGH INTO MOST OF CWA...PUSHING
MOST FORCING SOUTH OF REGION. GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOPRESS AND
SWINGS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO CWA. WILL LEAN WITH EC/HPC GUIDANCE
AT THIS POINT AS MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS DONT SUPPORT OPS GFS. &&
AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AIR...AND
MDT/STRONG MECHANICAL MIXING LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. GUSTY WINDS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY 0Z.. EXPECT
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 32 53 32 51 / 0 20 20 10
INL 27 52 31 47 / 0 20 20 0
BRD 30 54 33 54 / 0 20 20 0
HYR 26 57 34 54 / 0 30 20 10
ASX 30 55 35 54 / 0 30 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
LONKA
000
FXUS63 KMPX 072313
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
513 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AREA UNDER MILD ZONAL FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT NOW WELL
SE OF CWA. VERY DRY AND MILD PAC HIGH IS SETTLING OVER SRN MN
RESULTING IN THE VERY MILD AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN THEME FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A
HALF WILL BE FOR ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 HEIGHTS TO REMAIN OVER
ALASKA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR W TO SW FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
FOR TONIGHT...BUMPED UP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVED
LOWS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE UPPER 30S AND EXPECTED
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BROUGHT NUMBERS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE. FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY...12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO PAINT A BLEAK PICTURE
FOR SEEING RAINFALL. UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE BRINGING IN RAIN
CHANCES IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAC NW. IT IS FORECAST TO QUICK
RIDE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW...LEADING TO SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE FRONT OF NEB/IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING CLOUD COVER BACK
INTO THE AREA. FOR RAIN...CURRENT RHS IN THE LOW 20S RIGHT NOW ARE
A SIGN OF WHAT ANY RAINFALL MUST OVERCOME TOMORROW IF IT IS TO
REACH THE SFC. THE FORCING FOR THE PRECIP IS THERE...BUT ALL
RATHER WEAK...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL MN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO STILL BE FAIRLY DRY. TO TOP IT OFF...SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. SO...ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN HALF OF CWA...TRANSITIONING OVER
TO WEST CENT WIS IN THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS SET
IN. SO HAVE INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED...10 AS OPPOSED TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
FOR NEXT WEEK...DRY PAC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH ANY CONCERNS
TURNING TO FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AREA
GETS ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH AND SRLY WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WITH
TEMPERATURES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THIS TIME
FRAME...NOT FEELING TO CONFIDENT IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT...SO
BASICALLY STUCK WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHERE THINGS GO IN
THE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THRU 12Z AS WINDS WILL BECOME E/SE BY SUNRISE
AND UNTIL 6 KTS. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR AND ROUGHLY 9000` OR ABOVE.
AFT 15/18Z...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF LOWER
CEILINGS AND THE CHANCE OF -RA. PREVIOUS TAFS ONLY HAD CEILINGS AOB
8000`. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE AT LEAST AN INTRODUCTION
OF LOWER CLDS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 2500` WITH CEILINGS AOB 4000`.
LATER TAFS CAN REFLECT ON THIS CURRENT TREND. ..JLT..
CWSU DISCUSSION...
LATEST HPC ANALYSIS SHOWING CLD FNT EXTNDG FM LK SUPERIOR THRU
WI/IA/SRN NE, WITH RDGG BUILDING INTO WRN ZMP. THRU THE PERIOD A WV
WITH DEVELOP ON THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FNT NR NW KS AND MOV
INTO CNTL IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING PSBLTY OF -RA TO SRN
MN.
LATEST MDL RUNS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THE PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. START THE TAF WITH SCT200. BRING IN BKN140
BKN200 AFT 07Z. BY 18Z SKY COND WILL BE BKN030, AND BY 22Z BKN020
AND WILL STAY THERE THRU TAF END. WE MAY HAVE VCSH AFT 22Z;
OTHERWISE NO WX EXCPTD. DON`T EXPCT THE VIS TO DROP BLO P6SM. WNDS
WILL START WESTERLY, THEN BECOME EASTERLY AFT 06Z. SPDS WILL FOLLOW
A DIURNAL CURVE BETWEEN 3 AND 9 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/JLT
000
FXUS63 KDLH 072127
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS OF 3 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WERE HEADED INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS...BUT
MAINLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID
50S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF NW WI.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE TO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT...
WITH OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM SE MN TO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING BETTER
POPS/QPF IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INCREASING FGEN SHOULD BRING SOME WDLY SCT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO
FAIRLY LOW MOISTURE AND THE SYSTEM BEING EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF FROM
THE GULF. IT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE IT BRINGS WITH
IT...AND BATTLE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. STILL
THINK QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY 0.10 INCH OR LESS.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
THERMAL TROUGH/H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN MN ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS FOR A WHILE. HIGHS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S
SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO THE 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CWA
WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE EXPECTED WITH
GENERAL ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN. LOW LVL THETAE AXIS SUGGESTS BDRY
WILL STALL/DISSIPATE ACROSS SE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY. GFS MAINTAINS
EXISTING DRY FCST WHEREAS EC/GEM SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME POPS/QPF. UNSETTLED PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS AS SHORTWAVE
EJECTING FROM ROCKIES GENERATES A WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE IN
LOW/MID LVLS. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS SWINGS INTO CWA ON HEELS OF
LLJ THURSDAY SO POPS INCREASED AT THAT TIME. SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS CWA THUR NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GFS/EC TOTALLY DIVERGE WITH SFC/MID LVL
PATTERN FRI/SAT AS EC BUILDS SFC HIGH INTO MOST OF CWA...PUSHING
MOST FORCING SOUTH OF REGION. GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOPRESS AND
SWINGS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO CWA. WILL LEAN WITH EC/HPC GUIDANCE
AT THIS POINT AS MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS DONT SUPPORT OPS GFS. &&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AIR...AND
MDT/STRONG MECHANICAL MIXING LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. GUSTY WINDS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY 0Z.. EXPECT
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 34 53 32 51 / 0 20 20 10
INL 28 52 31 47 / 0 20 20 0
BRD 32 54 33 54 / 0 20 20 0
HYR 32 57 34 54 / 0 30 20 10
ASX 33 55 35 54 / 0 30 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
06/CANNON/CANNON
000
FXUS63 KMPX 072108
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AREA UNDER MILD ZONAL FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT NOW WELL
SE OF CWA. VERY DRY AND MILD PAC HIGH IS SETTLING OVER SRN MN
RESULTING IN THE VERY MILD AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN THEME FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A
HALF WILL BE FOR ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 HEIGHTS TO REMAIN OVER
ALASKA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR W TO SW FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
FOR TONIGHT...BUMPED UP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVED
LOWS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE UPPER 30S AND EXPECTED
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BROUGHT NUMBERS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE. FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY...12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO PAINT A BLEAK PICTURE
FOR SEEING RAINFALL. UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE BRINGING IN RAIN
CHANCES IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAC NW. IT IS FORECAST TO QUICK
RIDE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW...LEADING TO SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE FRONT OF NEB/IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING CLOUD COVER BACK
INTO THE AREA. FOR RAIN...CURRENT RHS IN THE LOW 20S RIGHT NOW ARE
A SIGN OF WHAT ANY RAINFALL MUST OVERCOME TOMORROW IF IT IS TO
REACH THE SFC. THE FORCING FOR THE PRECIP IS THERE...BUT ALL
RATHER WEAK...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL MN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO STILL BE FAIRLY DRY. TO TOP IT OFF...SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. SO...ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN HALF OF CWA...TRANSITIONING OVER
TO WEST CENT WIS IN THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS SET
IN. SO HAVE INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED...10 AS OPPOSED TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
FOR NEXT WEEK...DRY PAC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH ANY CONCERNS
TURNING TO FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AREA
GETS ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH AND SRLY WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WITH
TEMPERATURES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THIS TIME
FRAME...NOT FEELING TO CONFIDENT IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT...SO
BASICALLY STUCK WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHERE THINGS GO IN
THE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
JUST A FEW CLOUDS ATTM. MAIN TAF CONCERN IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY STRONG WIND OF 40 KNOTS AT 2K MSL ON THE KMPX SOUNDING...
LAUNCHED AT 11Z. HOWEVER THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE 88D HAS
THAT DOWN TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS NOW. A SIMILAR DROP HAS OCCURRED AT
ABERDEEN. SFC HIGH IN CENTRAL SD BUILDING INTO MN AND SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THIS EVENING. WITHOUT SIG MIXING THIS AFTERNOON... WINDS
WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT MSP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT 10 KNOTS SHOULD WORK FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TONIGHT AND BE OUT OF THE ESE AS SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS
SRN MN INTO WISC. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGHS CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE
TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS. SOME QUESTION NOW
ON THE 12Z MODELS AS TO THE EXTENT OR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MPG/TDK
000
FXUS63 KMPX 071759
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1159 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 212 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW WARM TO GO TODAY AND THEN LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES COME SUNDAY.
THIS IS QUITE THE WARM ATMOSPHERE FOR NEARLY A WEEK INTO NOVEMBER.
THE 700-925MB TEMPS ON LAST EVES AREA RAOBS WERE READINGS WE DID
NOT FREQUENTLY SEE EVEN THIS SUMMER. BUT HERE THEY ARE...AND
REALIZED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST WERE 60S AND
70S. A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WNW. THE STRONGER THERMAL
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER. AND
YESTERDAY...60S WERE SEEN IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ERN
MT BEHIND THIS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AT A HIGH STARTING
POINT TOO IN SRN MN AND WRN WI...SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT THEY
SHOULD START FOR NOV 7TH. THE MIXING WILL BE AT A SHALLOWER DEPTH
THAN YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM 930-910MB FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STILL OFFERS VERY MILD TEMPS. HAVE BLENDED
THAT INTO GOING FORECAST AND NUDGED UP A DEGREE FROM THERE GIVEN
THE GUIDANCE TREND. CIRRUS SHOULD IMPINGE ON THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HAVE A LIMITED EFFECT ON THE WARMEST AREAS.
THUS...THE FORECAST HIGHS RESULT IN THE MID 60S SOUTH AND PARTS OF
ERN MN AND WRN WI...WITH NEAR 60 IN CTRL MN.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER JET PICKS THIS SYSTEM UP AND
LIFTS IT NORTHEAST IT WILL HAVE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...BUT
STILL OVERALL REMAIN LITTLE MORE THAN A SHEARED SHORT WAVE. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH FORCING
FROM THE GFS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. THE 06Z NAM HAS ARRIVED
FAVORING THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION...SO HAVE OVERALL LEANED THAT ROUTE
WHICH LED TO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST. THAT IS...LOW
POP AND LOW QPF EVENT.
CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL. WHILE LUCK WAS ON OUR SIDE WITH NO
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...SUNDAYS SOUTH WINDS AND ONE AGAIN INCREASING
DEW POINTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TO PROMOTE STRATUS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO A MORE CONNECTED GULF FETCH AND LESS
T/TD SPREADS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SO CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CLOUD FORECAST. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN RIGHT-
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR LIGHT RAIN.
BUT OVERALL THIS FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND WITHIN A DISJOINTED
VERTICAL MOISTURE FIELD. SO LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND AT TIMES
LIKELY VIRGA WILL BE ABOUT IT FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE EXPECTED
STRATUS AREA ACROSS SE MN AND WRN WI SHOULD BE SLOW TO DEPART
THROUGH MON MORNING.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE
1035MB PACIFIC-ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COLUMN RH AND PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
BE QUITE LOW...WITH ONCE AGAIN A WARMING TREND. WHEN STRONG RETURN
FLOW FORECAST BY THE ECWMF/GFS RETURNS ON WED MAY NEED TO MONITOR
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF GROUND CONDITIONS CAN DRY OUT. BUT
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. NEXT SYSTEM IS
FORECAST DURING THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN
THE GRIDS...SO NO CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
JUST A FEW CLOUDS ATTM. MAIN TAF CONCERN IS WIND THIS AFTERNOON.
VERY STRONG WIND OF 40 KNOTS AT 2K MSL ON THE KMPX SOUNDING...
LAUNCHED AT 11Z. HOWEVER THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM THE 88D HAS
THAT DOWN TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS NOW. A SIMILAR DROP HAS OCCURRED AT
ABERDEEN. SFC HIGH IN CENTRAL SD BUILDING INTO MN AND SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THIS EVENING. WITHOUT SIG MIXING THIS AFTERNOON... WINDS
WILL LOSE GUSTINESS AND DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT MSP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT 10 KNOTS SHOULD WORK FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TONIGHT AND BE OUT OF THE ESE AS SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS
SRN MN INTO WISC. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGHS CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE
TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODELS. SOME QUESTION NOW
ON THE 12Z MODELS AS TO THE EXTENT OR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MTF/TDK
000
FXUS63 KDLH 071740 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1140 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AIR...AND MDT/STRONG
MECHANICAL MIXING LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. MIXING HEIGHT TODAY
ABOUT 2KFT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER/GUSTY WINDS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN
HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT INTO
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
UPDATE...ZONES/GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH WESTERLY WINDS HAS BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES TO ALMOST 60 DEGREES IN SPOTS. ALSO A FEW 60 DEGREE
READINGS SO FAR IN NW WI. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAFS
COLD FRONT FROM MN ARROWHEAD THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBY 1/4 MILE AND CIGS BLO OVC010. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. THEN..EXPECT CLEAR SKIES BUT
GUSTY WINDS AS 8H WINDS 20 TO 30KTS MIX TO THE SFC. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 22Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FA ATTM WHILE COLD FRONT IS FOUND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA AT 08Z. CI AND AREAS OF FOG COVER A MAJORITY OF
THE FA WITH LOWEST VSBYS FOUND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AFTER COLD
FROPA...FOG WILL LIFT AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE. BRIEF COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO OCCURRING JUST AFTER FROPA. DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AS SFC
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 20S F AS SEEN IN THE DAKOTAS. COLD
FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE IN. SECOND DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN NE MN AND NW WI.
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH STILL IN PLAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL HANDLING OF THE LOCATION/DEPTH/QPF
WITH ITS PASSAGE IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC QPF FOR
SUNDAY PCPN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ALREADY FORECAST.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER TROF
ENTERING THE WEST COAST DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 37 50 32 50 / 0 20 10 10
INL 29 53 31 47 / 0 10 10 10
BRD 40 54 33 51 / 0 20 10 10
HYR 38 54 34 53 / 0 30 20 10
ASX 38 56 35 54 / 0 30 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
06/CANNON/CANNON
000
FXUS63 KDLH 071652
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1052 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...ZONES/GRIDS IN GREAT SHAPE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
TWEAKED TEMPS UPWARD A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH WESTERLY WINDS HAS BROUGHT
TEMPERATURES TO ALMOST 60 DEGREES IN SPOTS. ALSO A FEW 60 DEGREE
READINGS SO FAR IN NW WI. SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAFS
COLD FRONT FROM MN ARROWHEAD THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBY 1/4 MILE AND CIGS BLO OVC010. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. THEN..EXPECT CLEAR SKIES BUT
GUSTY WINDS AS 8H WINDS 20 TO 30KTS MIX TO THE SFC. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 22Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FA ATTM WHILE COLD FRONT IS FOUND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA AT 08Z. CI AND AREAS OF FOG COVER A MAJORITY OF
THE FA WITH LOWEST VSBYS FOUND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AFTER COLD
FROPA...FOG WILL LIFT AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE. BRIEF COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO OCCURRING JUST AFTER FROPA. DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AS SFC
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 20S F AS SEEN IN THE DAKOTAS. COLD
FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE IN. SECOND DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN NE MN AND NW WI.
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH STILL IN PLAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL HANDLING OF THE LOCATION/DEPTH/QPF
WITH ITS PASSAGE IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC QPF FOR
SUNDAY PCPN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ALREADY FORECAST.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER TROF
ENTERING THE WEST COAST DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 60 37 50 32 / 0 0 20 10
INL 55 29 53 31 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 58 40 54 33 / 0 0 20 10
HYR 62 38 54 34 / 0 0 30 20
ASX 61 38 56 35 / 0 0 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
06/CANNON
000
FXUS63 KMPX 071154
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
555 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW WARM TO GO TODAY AND THEN LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES COME SUNDAY.
THIS IS QUITE THE WARM ATMOSPHERE FOR NEARLY A WEEK INTO NOVEMBER.
THE 700-925MB TEMPS ON LAST EVES AREA RAOBS WERE READINGS WE DID
NOT FREQUENTLY SEE EVEN THIS SUMMER. BUT HERE THEY ARE...AND
REALIZED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST WERE 60S AND
70S. A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WNW. THE STRONGER THERMAL
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER. AND
YESTERDAY...60S WERE SEEN IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ERN
MT BEHIND THIS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AT A HIGH STARTING
POINT TOO IN SRN MN AND WRN WI...SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT THEY
SHOULD START FOR NOV 7TH. THE MIXING WILL BE AT A SHALLOWER DEPTH
THAN YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM 930-910MB FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STILL OFFERS VERY MILD TEMPS. HAVE BLENDED
THAT INTO GOING FORECAST AND NUDGED UP A DEGREE FROM THERE GIVEN
THE GUIDANCE TREND. CIRRUS SHOULD IMPINGE ON THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HAVE A LIMITED EFFECT ON THE WARMEST AREAS.
THUS...THE FORECAST HIGHS RESULT IN THE MID 60S SOUTH AND PARTS OF
ERN MN AND WRN WI...WITH NEAR 60 IN CTRL MN.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER JET PICKS THIS SYSTEM UP AND
LIFTS IT NORTHEAST IT WILL HAVE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...BUT
STILL OVERALL REMAIN LITTLE MORE THAN A SHEARED SHORT WAVE. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH FORCING
FROM THE GFS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. THE 06Z NAM HAS ARRIVED
FAVORING THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION...SO HAVE OVERALL LEANED THAT ROUTE
WHICH LED TO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST. THAT IS...LOW
POP AND LOW QPF EVENT.
CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL. WHILE LUCK WAS ON OUR SIDE WITH NO
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...SUNDAYS SOUTH WINDS AND ONE AGAIN INCREASING
DEW POINTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TO PROMOTE STRATUS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO A MORE CONNECTED GULF FETCH AND LESS
T/TD SPREADS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SO CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CLOUD FORECAST. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN RIGHT-
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR LIGHT RAIN.
BUT OVERALL THIS FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND WITHIN A DISJOINTED
VERTICAL MOISTURE FIELD. SO LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND AT TIMES
LIKELY VIRGA WILL BE ABOUT IT FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE EXPECTED
STRATUS AREA ACROSS SE MN AND WRN WI SHOULD BE SLOW TO DEPART
THROUGH MON MORNING.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE
1035MB PACIFIC-ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COLUMN RH AND PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
BE QUITE LOW...WITH ONCE AGAIN A WARMING TREND. WHEN STRONG RETURN
FLOW FORECAST BY THE ECWMF/GFS RETURNS ON WED MAY NEED TO MONITOR
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF GROUND CONDITIONS CAN DRY OUT. BUT
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. NEXT SYSTEM IS
FORECAST DURING THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN
THE GRIDS...SO NO CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THOUSAND FEET
AGL. CLOUDS AND CEILINGS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FEET AGL
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
SUNDAY. GENLY VFR WEATHER CONDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MTF/JM
000
FXUS63 KDLH 071143 CCA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAFS
COLD FRONT FROM MN ARROWHEAD THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY DENSE FOG
WITH VSBY 1/4 MILE AND CIGS BLO OVC010. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. THEN..EXPECT CLEAR SKIES BUT
GUSTY WINDS AS 8H WINDS 20 TO 30KTS MIX TO THE SFC. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 22Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FA ATTM WHILE COLD FRONT IS FOUND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA AT 08Z. CI AND AREAS OF FOG COVER A MAJORITY OF
THE FA WITH LOWEST VSBYS FOUND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AFTER COLD
FROPA...FOG WILL LIFT AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE. BRIEF COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO OCCURRING JUST AFTER FROPA. DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AS SFC
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 20S F AS SEEN IN THE DAKOTAS. COLD
FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE IN. SECOND DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN NE MN AND NW WI.
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH STILL IN PLAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL HANDLING OF THE LOCATION/DEPTH/QPF
WITH ITS PASSAGE IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC QPF FOR
SUNDAY PCPN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ALREADY FORECAST.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER TROF
ENTERING THE WEST COAST DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 37 50 32 / 0 0 20 10
INL 55 29 53 31 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 56 40 54 33 / 0 0 20 10
HYR 61 38 54 34 / 0 0 30 20
ASX 61 38 56 35 / 0 0 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
GSF/CLC
000
FXUS63 KDLH 071133 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
533 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAFS
COLD FRONT FROM MN ARROWHEAD THROUGH NORTHWESTERN WISOCNSIN WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME...PATCHY SENSE OFG
WITH VSBY , 1/4 MILES AND CIGS BLO OVC010. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY AFTER 14Z. THEN..EXPCT CLEAR SKIES BUT
GUSTY WINDS AS 8H WINDS 20 TO 30KTS. THIS WIINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 22Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FA ATTM WHILE COLD FRONT IS FOUND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA AT 08Z. CI AND AREAS OF FOG COVER A MAJORITY OF
THE FA WITH LOWEST VSBYS FOUND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AFTER COLD
FROPA...FOG WILL LIFT AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE. BRIEF COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO OCCURRING JUST AFTER FROPA. DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AS SFC
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 20S F AS SEEN IN THE DAKOTAS. COLD
FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE IN. SECOND DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN NE MN AND NW WI.
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH STILL IN PLAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL HANDLING OF THE LOCATION/DEPTH/QPF
WITH ITS PASSAGE IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC QPF FOR
SUNDAY PCPN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ALREADY FORECAST.
EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER TROF
ENTERING THE WEST COAST DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 37 50 32 / 0 0 20 10
INL 55 29 53 31 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 56 40 54 33 / 0 0 20 10
HYR 61 38 54 34 / 0 0 30 20
ASX 61 38 56 35 / 0 0 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
GSF/CLC
000
FXUS63 KDLH 070848
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
248 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...SFC WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FA ATTM WHILE COLD FRONT IS FOUND MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FA AT 08Z. CI AND AREAS OF FOG COVER A MAJORITY OF
THE FA WITH LOWEST VSBYS FOUND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. AFTER COLD
FROPA...FOG WILL LIFT AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE. BRIEF COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALSO OCCURRING JUST AFTER FROPA. DRIER AIR FOLLOWS AS SFC
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 20S F AS SEEN IN THE DAKOTAS. COLD
FRONT DEPARTS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
SETTLE IN. SECOND DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN NE MN AND NW WI.
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH STILL IN PLAY.
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. DIFFERENCES IN MODEL HANDLING OF THE LOCATION/DEPTH/QPF
WITH ITS PASSAGE IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC QPF FOR
SUNDAY PCPN...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ALREADY FORECAST.
.EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER TROF
ENTERING THE WEST COAST DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED DUE TO STRENGTHENING INVERSION INVOF
APPROACHING COOL FRONT. WE USED THE RUC 1000MB COND PRES GRADIENT
AS A PROXY FOR FOG FORMATION THROUGH TONIGHT. KBRD...KHIB...AND KHYR
STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT GETTING FOG THROUGH 10-12Z...BEFORE
AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH THE FROPA.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 37 50 32 / 0 0 20 10
INL 55 29 53 31 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 56 40 54 33 / 0 0 20 10
HYR 61 38 54 34 / 0 0 30 20
ASX 61 38 56 35 / 0 0 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
GSF/CLC/TL
000
FXUS63 KMPX 070812
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
212 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW WARM TO GO TODAY AND THEN LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES COME SUNDAY.
THIS IS QUITE THE WARM ATMOSPHERE FOR NEARLY A WEEK INTO NOVEMBER.
THE 700-925MB TEMPS ON LAST EVES AREA RAOBS WERE READINGS WE DID
NOT FREQUENTLY SEE EVEN THIS SUMMER. BUT HERE THEY ARE...AND
REALIZED YESTERDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MIDWEST WERE 60S AND
70S. A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WNW. THE STRONGER THERMAL
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST HOWEVER. AND
YESTERDAY...60S WERE SEEN IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ERN
MT BEHIND THIS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AT A HIGH STARTING
POINT TOO IN SRN MN AND WRN WI...SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE WHAT THEY
SHOULD START FOR NOV 7TH. THE MIXING WILL BE AT A SHALLOWER DEPTH
THAN YESTERDAY...RANGING FROM 930-910MB FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS STILL OFFERS VERY MILD TEMPS. HAVE BLENDED
THAT INTO GOING FORECAST AND NUDGED UP A DEGREE FROM THERE GIVEN
THE GUIDANCE TREND. CIRRUS SHOULD IMPINGE ON THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD HAVE A LIMITED EFFECT ON THE WARMEST AREAS.
THUS...THE FORECAST HIGHS RESULT IN THE MID 60S SOUTH AND PARTS OF
ERN MN AND WRN WI...WITH NEAR 60 IN CTRL MN.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER JET PICKS THIS SYSTEM UP AND
LIFTS IT NORTHEAST IT WILL HAVE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...BUT
STILL OVERALL REMAIN LITTLE MORE THAN A SHEARED SHORT WAVE. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH FORCING
FROM THE GFS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. THE 06Z NAM HAS ARRIVED
FAVORING THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION...SO HAVE OVERALL LEANED THAT ROUTE
WHICH LED TO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GOING FORECAST. THAT IS...LOW
POP AND LOW QPF EVENT.
CIRROSTRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL. WHILE LUCK WAS ON OUR SIDE WITH NO
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...SUNDAYS SOUTH WINDS AND ONE AGAIN INCREASING
DEW POINTS ARE MORE FAVORABLE TO PROMOTE STRATUS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO A MORE CONNECTED GULF FETCH AND LESS
T/TD SPREADS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. SO CONTINUE WITH
INCREASING CLOUD FORECAST. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN RIGHT-
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR LIGHT RAIN.
BUT OVERALL THIS FORCING REMAINS WEAK AND WITHIN A DISJOINTED
VERTICAL MOISTURE FIELD. SO LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES AND AT TIMES
LIKELY VIRGA WILL BE ABOUT IT FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE EXPECTED
STRATUS AREA ACROSS SE MN AND WRN WI SHOULD BE SLOW TO DEPART
THROUGH MON MORNING.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO APPEAR VERY PLEASANT. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE
1035MB PACIFIC-ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COLUMN RH AND PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
BE QUITE LOW...WITH ONCE AGAIN A WARMING TREND. WHEN STRONG RETURN
FLOW FORECAST BY THE ECWMF/GFS RETURNS ON WED MAY NEED TO MONITOR
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF GROUND CONDITIONS CAN DRY OUT. BUT
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. NEXT SYSTEM IS
FORECAST DURING THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME WHICH IS HANDLED WELL IN
THE GRIDS...SO NO CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FOG OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL MN...FROM ALEXANDRIA TO MORA...IS IN
THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED TO
THE EAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL MN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...MOVES ACROSS MN. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST (280-300) WITH FROPA. SPEEDS FROM 12
TO 14 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
MTF/RAH
000
FXUS63 KDLH 070546
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1146 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED DUE TO STRENGTHENING INVERSION INVOF
APPROACHING COOL FRONT. WE USED THE RUC 1000MB COND PRES GRADIENT
AS A PROXY FOR FOG FORMATION THROUGH TONIGHT. KBRD...KHIB...AND KHYR
STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT GETTING FOG THROUGH 10-12Z...BEFORE
AFOREMENTIONED COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH THE FROPA.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXISTING GRIDS. LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...AS EARLIER INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN ZONES DOES NOT LOOK TO COME TO FRUITION. BOTH
RUC/NAM 925MB COND PRES DEFICITS DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS
FORMATION. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A HAIR...AS DECOUPLING AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS TAKING PLACE AT A FEW OBS SITES. WITH THAT
IN MIND...MAY HAVE TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG...ESP ACROSS WRN
ZONES AS VSBYS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 2 TO 5 MILE RANGE HERE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
LOW CLOUDS NEVER MATERIALIZED LAST NIGHT...AND GUIDANCE AND LOW
LEVEL RH FROM THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST IT WILL FORM OVER MUCH OF OUR
CWA TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE`RE NOT BUYING INTO THAT
SCENARIO...AND DECREASED CLOUDS.
TIME SECTIONS FROM VARIOUS LOCATIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT...BUT ALSO SHOW ANY LIFT ABOVE THIS LAYER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.
WE ALSO PULLED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT. AMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM
KHIB/KRHI/KINL AT 18Z SHOW VERY DRY AIR PRESENT ABOVE THE LOWEST
COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. IF THE STRATUS IS ABLE TO FORM...SOME DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL OCCUR.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AND A FEW 60S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF THE
CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME WEAK FGEN FORECAST...AND THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ALL ARE FORECASTING SOME QPF...FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SPOTS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BACK TOWARD
THE BRAINERD LAKES/TWIN PORTS AREAS. WE ONLY HAVE SMALL POPS
GOING...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE IF THE FGEN SIGNATURE
STRENGTHENS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MILD AND DRY
WEATHER. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CAA CLOUDS FOR A TIME
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT WETTER AT
THIS POINT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS STILL
ONLY HINTING AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WITH VERY DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THE GULF EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SMALL POPS AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF ALSO TENDS TO STALL
OUT THE FRONT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
GO WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER GFS TREND AT THIS POINT. SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAINLY 40S/50S
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 43 55 37 51 / 0 0 10 20
INL 40 53 29 51 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 42 58 38 50 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 45 59 38 52 / 0 0 10 30
ASX 46 58 38 51 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
LONKA
000
FXUS63 KMPX 070531
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1131 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
FOG OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL MN...FROM ALEXANDRIA TO MORA...IS IN
THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT THE FOG TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED TO
THE EAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS CENTRAL MN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...MOVES ACROSS MN. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST NORTHWEST (280-300) WITH FROPA. SPEEDS FROM 12
TO 14 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY. THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA.
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 123 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HOW THIS WILL PLAY INTO THE WEEKENDS
FORECAST.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
TOO AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH RH FIELDS
BELOW 85H. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
WITH MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS OVER CWA. OUR AFTN TEMPERATURES COULD HAVE
BEEN TWO TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER IF CIRRUS SHIELD DIDN`T MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. EVEN WITH THE HIGH
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO RISE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE W/NW. SLIGHTLY COOLER 90H TEMPS AND CAA WILL LIKELY
HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 60S ALONG THE IA BORDER ON
SATURDAY.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WEATHER SYSTEM SEEMS TO LACKING ANY
TYPE OF STRONG FORCING. IN ADDITION...RH FIELDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH POPS...IF ANY. ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS TOO
FAR SOUTH TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE...-RA/SPRINKLES
LOOK TO BE THE BEST SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...AND MAINLY BETWEEN
15Z/03Z.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS BASED ON HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA TROUGH/LOW TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ALTHOUGH CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE INDICATED A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...TRENDS OF THE
EC/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH
BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
BY NEXT THU/FRI. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MUCH WARMER FORECAST THEN
MODELS INDICATE...OR AT LEAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. IN ADDITION...A BETTER CHANCE OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
OR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ONE ITEM TO
NOTE IS THE MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE SE IS NOT CONDUCIVE OF RETURN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE
STABLE TREND IN THE MODELS BEFORE INTRODUCING A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT. ..JLT..
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
RAH/JLT
000
FXUS63 KDLH 070330 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
930 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO EXISTING GRIDS. LOWERED SKY COVER SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...AS EARLIER INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVER ERN ZONES DOES NOT LOOK TO COME TO FRUITION. BOTH
RUC/NAM 925MB COND PRES DEFICITS DO NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE TO STRATUS
FORMATION. LOWERED TEMPS JUST A HAIR...AS DECOUPLING AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS TAKING PLACE AT A FEW OBS SITES. WITH THAT
IN MIND...MAY HAVE TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG...ESP ACROSS WRN
ZONES AS VSBYS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 2 TO 5 MILE RANGE HERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER
KHYR LATE TONIGHT...AS MESO NAM/RUC INDICATE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN
THE 925MB LAYER. ALTHOUGH...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR ATTM SO WE MAY HAVE TO READJUST LATER. A COOL FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH CWA AFT 08Z...WITH WINDS VEERING WESTERLY AND BECOMING
GUSTY DURING THE DAY SAT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/
DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
LOW CLOUDS NEVER MATERIALIZED LAST NIGHT...AND GUIDANCE AND LOW
LEVEL RH FROM THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST IT WILL FORM OVER MUCH OF OUR
CWA TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE`RE NOT BUYING INTO THAT
SCENARIO...AND DECREASED CLOUDS.
TIME SECTIONS FROM VARIOUS LOCATIONS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT...BUT ALSO SHOW ANY LIFT ABOVE THIS LAYER. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.
WE ALSO PULLED THE POPS FOR TONIGHT. AMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM
KHIB/KRHI/KINL AT 18Z SHOW VERY DRY AIR PRESENT ABOVE THE LOWEST
COUPLE THOUSAND FEET. IF THE STRATUS IS ABLE TO FORM...SOME DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL OCCUR.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS...AND A FEW 60S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT A PORTION OF THE
CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME WEAK FGEN FORECAST...AND THE
NAM/SREF/GFS ALL ARE FORECASTING SOME QPF...FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH IN SPOTS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BACK TOWARD
THE BRAINERD LAKES/TWIN PORTS AREAS. WE ONLY HAVE SMALL POPS
GOING...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE IF THE FGEN SIGNATURE
STRENGTHENS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY
EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MILD AND DRY
WEATHER. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING SOME CAA CLOUDS FOR A TIME
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT WETTER AT
THIS POINT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS STILL
ONLY HINTING AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WITH VERY DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THE GULF EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SMALL POPS AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF ALSO TENDS TO STALL
OUT THE FRONT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL
GO WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER GFS TREND AT THIS POINT. SHOULD BE
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAINLY 40S/50S
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 43 55 37 51 / 0 0 10 20
INL 40 53 29 51 / 0 0 10 10
BRD 42 58 38 50 / 0 0 10 10
HYR 45 59 38 52 / 0 0 10 30
ASX 46 58 38 51 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
LONKA
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