000
FXUS63 KEAX 082339
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
540 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING
AS UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT ON NORTHWEST EDGE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COMBINES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION GENERATES MULTILAYERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON ELEVATED CONVECTION
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
295-305K SURFACES WILL HELP TO GENERATE THICKENING CLOUDINESS THIS
EVENING THEN LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS VERY
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED
MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE... ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN MO...DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAYERED FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING BEGINS TO ORGANIZE. THIS BECOMES MORE EVIDENT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE GFS/12Z NAM/GEM/SREF ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING THE BEST LIFT. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE
POPS THIS AREA TO LIKELY CATEGORY. GFS/NAM STILL SHOWING SOME
ELEVATED CAPE SO A FEW CLAPS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CWA ON MONDAY BUT PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIFT. MOST NOTABLE
EFFECT WILL BE WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER POST FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY BE AS MUCH FROM THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION.

HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS CIRCULATION FROM HURRICANE IDA LOOKS LIKE IT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT IN DELAYING DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR FROM ENTERING THE CWA.
THAT PLUS ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
BEEN FORECAST FOR A NUMBER OF MODEL RUNS WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT BY
LATE TUESDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING.

MJ

MEDIUM RANGE/DAYS 4-7

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPS UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THIS
FRONT. 12Z GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAKER FRONT COMPARED TO THE 12Z
ECMWF. CURRENTLY LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS REPRESENTATION OF THE
FRONT...SO HAVE PUT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SAT THROUGH SUN.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

SLY SFC WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN TO DECOUPLE...AND WILL FURTHER
WEAKEN AND VEER AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SERN NEBRASKA SINKS INTO
THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR TONIGHT (EVENTUALLY WINDS BECOMING NLY BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING). VERY LARGE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CIG AND
PRECIPITATION FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS VARIOUS
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE DISPLAYED EXTREMELY LOW CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT. VFR CIGS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD OCCASIONALLY
FLIRT WITH MVFR THRESHOLDS...THOUGH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. HAVE GENERALLY DELAYED THE
ONSET OF ANY MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND/OR PRECIPITATION INTO LATER MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. COULD REALISTICALLY SEE VSBY/CIGS JUMP AROUND
THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY...THOUGH
ATTEMPTING TO TIME ANY OF THESE CHANGES THIS FAR OUT WOULD BE
FRUITLESS.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 082325
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
525 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/419 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FCST PD INCLUDE MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...FROPA TIMING TOMORROW NIGHT...AND PRECIP CHCS NEXT WEEKEND.

CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND WILL CONTINUE INCRSG ACROSS THE BISTATE
REGION OVERNIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN OBSERVED
LAST NIGHT. WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO
WARMER AFTN TEMPERATURES. WK CDFNT MOVES SEWD ON MON AND
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/SREF HAVE SIMILAR FROPA TIMING OVERNIGHT...THUS KEPT
SCHC POPS ACROSS THE NW FOR MON INCRSG OVERNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE
FAR SE. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER THAN 24HR AGO...SUGGESTING
PRECIP MAY LINGER ON TUE MORNING. CWA EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NW OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE GULF STATES AS IDA MAKES
LANDFALL.

ECMWF/GFS/GEM/UKMET HANDLE REMNANTS OF IDA DIFFERENTLY OVER THE ERN
CONUS BUT ARE OTHERWISE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CENTRAL CONUS H5
RIDGING THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODEL FCST SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THEREAFTER OVER
EVOLUTION OF WRN CONUS TROF. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...APPEARS
THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE BISTATE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.


KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/507 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS HOW SOON THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOC WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AND HOW LOW
THE CIGS WILL BE WHEN IT DOES. LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
KUIN AND KCOU AROUND SUNRISE AND LOWER SOME DURING THE MORNING AS
IT COUNTIES TO BUILD SOUTH BEFORE THE CIGS LIFT A LITTLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN TOMORROW AND AT THIS
TIME...THE STL METRO TAF SITES LOOK TO BE ON THE EDGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE PM HOURS.  WINDS TO GO LIGHT/VRB TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH FRONT IN VCTY.


MILLER

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 8TH...

ST. LOUIS.....82 (2005)
COLUMBIA......81 (2005)
QUINCY........84 (1915)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 082324
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

...OVERVIEW...
MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...OTHERWISE ON TEMPERATURES.

...CURRENTLY...

SURFACE DEWPOINTS CREPT UP INTO THE MID 50S OUT IN WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN OZARKS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASED OVER WESTERN CWA IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS.

...SHORT TERM...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER ACROSS THE CWA THAN LAST NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. QPF TOTALS OVER THE CWA
STILL DONT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. BY FAR THE BEST
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL OCCUR WITH GULF SYSTEM
WHICH AFFECTS AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL KEEP 20 AND 30
POPS GOING LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CLEARING AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

...EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH
TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THIS
WILL GIVE US ANOTHER DRY SPELL THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WESTERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
PROBABLY INTO EARLY PART OF FOLLOWING WEEK FOR INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LINDENBERG


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH 06Z DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AROUND
06Z WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE BULK OF THEE MOISTURE MAKES ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA. THE SREF AND NAM/WRF MODELS DO INDICATE MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR THE TERMINALS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE OVER NIGHT.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 082221
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
421 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/419 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS FCST PD INCLUDE MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...FROPA TIMING TOMORROW NIGHT...AND PRECIP CHCS NEXT WEEKEND.

CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF AND WILL CONTINUE INCRSG ACROSS THE BISTATE
REGION OVERNIGHT...CONTRIBUTING TO WARMER MIN TEMPS THAN OBSERVED
LAST NIGHT. WENT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO
WARMER AFTN TEMPERATURES. WK CDFNT MOVES SEWD ON MON AND
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/SREF HAVE SIMILAR FROPA TIMING OVERNIGHT...THUS KEPT
SCHC POPS ACROSS THE NW FOR MON INCRSG OVERNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE
FAR SE. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER THAN 24HR AGO...SUGGESTING
PRECIP MAY LINGER ON TUE MORNING. CWA EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NW OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE GULF STATES AS IDA MAKES
LANDFALL.

ECMWF/GFS/GEM/UKMET HANDLE REMNANTS OF IDA DIFFERENTLY OVER THE ERN
CONUS BUT ARE OTHERWISE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CENTRAL CONUS H5
RIDGING THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODEL FCST SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THEREAFTER OVER
EVOLUTION OF WRN CONUS TROF. DESPITE MODEL DIFFERENCES...APPEARS
THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL AFFECT THE BISTATE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.


KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1107 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER COLD FRONT WILL EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO ALLOW CIGS TO CREEP INTO KUIN AND KCOU SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL
KEEP LOW CLOUDS OUT OF KSTL THROUGH 09/24 FOR NOW...BUT SRN EDGE
OF LOW CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE BY THEN. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS ON MONDAY...THEN LIKELY GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KSTL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BROWNING

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 8TH...

ST. LOUIS.....82 (2005)
COLUMBIA......81 (2005)
QUINCY........84 (1915)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 082133
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
331 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE VERY SHORT TERM HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING
AS UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT ON NORTHWEST EDGE OF AN UPPER SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COMBINES WITH INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION GENERATES MULTILAYERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON ELEVATED CONVECTION
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. COMBINATION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE
295-305K SURFACES WILL HELP TO GENERATE THICKENING CLOUDINESS THIS
EVENING THEN LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS VERY
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED
MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE... ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN MO...DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAYERED FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING BEGINS TO ORGANIZE. THIS BECOMES MORE EVIDENT MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE GFS/12Z NAM/GEM/SREF ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING THE BEST LIFT. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE
POPS THIS AREA TO LIKELY CATEGORY. GFS/NAM STILL SHOWING SOME
ELEVATED CAPE SO A FEW CLAPS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CWA ON MONDAY BUT PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL LIFT. MOST NOTABLE
EFFECT WILL BE WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER POST FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES. THIS MAY BE AS MUCH FROM THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAN ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION.

HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS CIRCULATION FROM HURRICANE IDA LOOKS LIKE IT COULD HAVE
AN IMPACT IN DELAYING DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR FROM ENTERING THE CWA.
THAT PLUS ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS
BEEN FORECAST FOR A NUMBER OF MODEL RUNS WHICH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT BY
LATE TUESDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING.

MJ

MEDIUM RANGE/DAYS 4-7

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER...THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
TEMPS UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA SAT EVENING THROUGH SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THIS
FRONT. 12Z GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAKER FRONT COMPARED TO THE 12Z
ECMWF. CURRENTLY LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS REPRESENTATION OF THE
FRONT...SO HAVE PUT POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SAT THROUGH SUN.

ACH

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF...MVFR CEILINGS FORMED JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER SR TODAY INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEEPENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH A GOOD DEAL OF MVFR
CEILINGS OVER OK SPREADING NORTHWARD. PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN THAT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. QUESTION IS
ONE OF TIMING. WILL LOWER TO MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WITH THE IDEA THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO SPEED THEIR ARRIVAL BY A
FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN OUT OF THE S OR SSW UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY THE TRANSITION
FROM SSW TO NORTHEAST MAY ENTAIL SEVERAL HOURS OF VARIABLE OR CALM
WINDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALSO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO
FELT VICINITY WORDING WOULD DESCRIBE IT BEST.

MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND
FAVORING NORTHERN MO/KSTJ VS KMCI/KMKC.

MJ



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 082036
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...OVERVIEW...
MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...OTHERWISE ON TEMPERATURES.

...CURRENTLY...

SURFACE DEWPOINTS CREPT UP INTO THE MID 50S OUT IN WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN OZARKS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASED OVER WESTERN CWA IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS.


...SHORT TERM...
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE WARMER ACROSS THE CWA THAN LAST NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. QPF TOTALS OVER THE CWA
STILL DONT LOOK ALL THAT IMPESSIVE AND MAY ACTUALLY SEE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. BY FAR THE BEST
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL OCCUR WITH GULF SYSTEM
WHICH AFFECTS AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL KEEP 20 AND 30
POPS GOING LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CLEARING AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.


...EXTENDED PERIOD (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH
TROUGHS ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  THIS
WILL GIVE US ANOTHER DRY SPELL THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  RIDGE AXIS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WESTERN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
PROBABLY INTO EARLY PART OF FOLLOWING WEEK FOR INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

LINDENBERG


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA
TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY NOT
BE PICKING UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS SEEN TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE TAFS AFTER 07Z. BBG MAY BE FLIRTING
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE WHITE RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. LATER FORECASTERS NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR THIS ON LATER TAFS.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 081743
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1143 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/408 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERED NRN MO SAT HAS DISSIPATED IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A STG ZONAL JET DRIVING INTO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH IN
WRN KS WILL AID IN DRIVING TEMPS TO MUCH ABV NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MEMBERS
OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
SHIFT NE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIVE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO NWRN MO BY MON MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF RW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS UPPER FORCING IS WEAK WITH
ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN THE QUALITY AND DEPTH OF GULF MOISTURE.
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY
WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES TO RACE THROUGH MO...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTING SE THROUGH MO.
FRONTOGENETICAL AND QG FORCING ARE RATHER WEAK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALSO RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...GIVEN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...HIGH CHC
POPS APPEAR WARRANTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY
DUE TO SFC-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RAIN WILL END FM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EXITS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE SFC AND H8 BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SE.

DB


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF...MVFR CEILINGS FORMED JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS
SHORTLY AFTER SR TODAY INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DEEPENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH A GOOD DEAL OF MVFR
CEILINGS OVER OK SPREADING NORTHWARD. PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN THAT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. QUESTION IS
ONE OF TIMING. WILL LOWER TO MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
WITH THE IDEA THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO SPEED THEIR ARRIVAL BY A
FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN OUT OF THE S OR SSW UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY
MORNING. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY THE TRANSITION
FROM SSW TO NORTHEAST MAY ENTAIL SEVERAL HOURS OF VARIABLE OR CALM
WINDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALSO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO
FELT VICINITY WORDING WOULD DESCRIBE IT BEST.

MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND
FAVORING NORTHERN MO/KSTJ VS KMCI/KMKC.

MJ



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 081715
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1115 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/235 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY TURNED OUT TO BE 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE
WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND QUITE A BIT ABOVE THE WARMEST MEMBERS OF
THE SREF.  00Z SOUNDINGS AT KILX AND KSGF SHOWED GOOD MIXING UP TO
900MB WITH UNDOUBTEDLY A SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THE
SURFACE DURING MAX HEATING. THERE WILL BE FEW/SCT CIRRUS...HOWEVER
IT SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO TAME A WARM UP LIKE YESTERDAY. THIS IS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO WHAT THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...EXPECTED S-SWLY SFC WINDS FAVOR A WARM-UP AND THE SAME
900MB TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C. USED PERSISTENCE WHICH IS 1-3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE WARMER GFS MOS TEMPS.

NEXT QUESTION DEALS WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT HAS BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH TROUGH THAT DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS
FALLS IN WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GEFS MEAN.
FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER WILL LIFT NWD EARLY TODAY
BUT THEN MOVE BACK SEWD INTO CNTRL/NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL BY LATE
MONDAY AS REMNANT OF THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN MEXICO
MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO WORK WITH WHAT MOISTURE IT ALREADY HAS
AS THE GULF BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE LOW LEVEL WINDS REORIENTING
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES NWD THROUGH THE GULF. THAT SAID...THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NWRN THIRD OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SE. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH LATE WEEK
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SETS IN UNDER A BUILDING UPPER TROUGH.

NAM/GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LEANED TOWARD THE GFS MOS FOR TUESDAY`S HIGHS GIVEN MY MODEL
PREFERENCE WHICH CALLS FOR EXITING CLOUDS AND NLY WINDS ALL DAY.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1107 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER COLD FRONT WILL EDGE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO ALLOW CIGS TO CREEP INTO KUIN AND KCOU SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL
KEEP LOW CLOUDS OUT OF KSTL THROUGH 09/24 FOR NOW...BUT SRN EDGE
OF LOW CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE BY THEN. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS ON MONDAY...THEN LIKELY GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KSTL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BROWNING

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 8TH...

ST. LOUIS.....82 (2005)
COLUMBIA......81 (2005)
QUINCY........84 (1915)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 081646
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1046 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS PACKAGE DEALS WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN
TODAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
THAT WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. DID CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OUT WEST...AS THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER 925MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. ALSO A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH. NEVERTHELESS A VERY WARM DAY IS
ON TAP AS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA
WIDE...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY APPROACH RECORDS SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN TEXAS WILL
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES. OUR AREA WILL OBSERVE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL
NOT REALLY BE ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES...HOWEVER THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. HAVE DOUBTS IF
THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING
THERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY.

WISE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA
TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AM CONCERNED THAT MODELS MAY NOT
BE PICKING UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS SEEN TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE TAFS AFTER 07Z. BBG MAY BE FLIRTING
WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW UP THE WHITE RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY MORNING. LATER FORECASTERS NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR THIS ON LATER TAFS.

CLAYCOMB


&&

.CLIMATE...

HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS FOR NOVEMBER 8TH.

LOCATION       FORECAST HIGH   RECORD HIGH      YEAR
SPRINGFIELD        76             80         2006/1980
JOPLIN             77             83         2006/1980
WEST PLAINS        77             81           1975
VICHY/ROLLA        78             79           2005

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 081114
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
515 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/235 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY TURNED OUT TO BE 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE
WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND QUITE A BIT ABOVE THE WARMEST MEMBERS OF
THE SREF.  00Z SOUNDINGS AT KILX AND KSGF SHOWED GOOD MIXING UP TO
900MB WITH UNDOUBTEDLY A SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THE
SURFACE DURING MAX HEATING. THERE WILL BE FEW/SCT CIRRUS...HOWEVER
IT SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO TAME A WARM UP LIKE YESTERDAY. THIS IS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO WHAT THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...EXPECTED S-SWLY SFC WINDS FAVOR A WARM-UP AND THE SAME
900MB TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C. USED PERSISTENCE WHICH IS 1-3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE WARMER GFS MOS TEMPS.

NEXT QUESTION DEALS WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT HAS BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH TROUGH THAT DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS
FALLS IN WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GEFS MEAN.
FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER WILL LIFT NWD EARLY TODAY
BUT THEN MOVE BACK SEWD INTO CNTRL/NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL BY LATE
MONDAY AS REMNANT OF THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN MEXICO
MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO WORK WITH WHAT MOISTURE IT ALREADY HAS
AS THE GULF BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE LOW LEVEL WINDS REORIENTING
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES NWD THROUGH THE GULF. THAT SAID...THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NWRN THIRD OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SE. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH LATE WEEK
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SETS IN UNDER A BUILDING UPPER TROUGH.

NAM/GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LEANED TOWARD THE GFS MOS FOR TUESDAY`S HIGHS GIVEN MY MODEL
PREFERENCE WHICH CALLS FOR EXITING CLOUDS AND NLY WINDS ALL DAY.

BRITT
&&

.AVIATION...
/515 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
PICKING UP BY MID MORNING. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT KSUS
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT WITH SOUTH WINDS...FOG SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF SITE.

BYRD
&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 8TH...

ST. LOUIS.....82 (2005)
COLUMBIA......81 (2005)
QUINCY........84 (1915)
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 081054
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS PACKAGE DEALS WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN
TODAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
THAT WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. DID CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OUT WEST...AS THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER 925MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. ALSO A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH. NEVERTHELESS A VERY WARM DAY IS
ON TAP AS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA
WIDE...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY APPROACH RECORDS SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN TEXAS WILL
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES. OUR AREA WILL OBSERVE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL
NOT REALLY BE ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES...HOWEVER THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. HAVE DOUBTS IF
THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING
THERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY.

WISE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER KS TONIGHT.
THIS MAY RESULT IN LOWER CLOUD COVERAGE FLIRTING WITH JLN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

GAGAN

&&

.CLIMATE...

HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS FOR NOVEMBER 8TH.

LOCATION       FORECAST HIGH   RECORD HIGH      YEAR
SPRINGFIELD        76             80         2006/1980
JOPLIN             77             83         2006/1980
WEST PLAINS        77             81           1975
VICHY/ROLLA        78             79           2005

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 081008
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
408 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERED NRN MO SAT HAS DISSIPATED IN
RESPONSE TO PRESFALLS AHEAD OF A STG ZONAL JET DRIVING INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH IN WRN KS
WILL AID IN DRIVING TEMPS TO MUCH ABV NORMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY. AS IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MEMBERS OF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE.

THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
SHIFT NE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIVE A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO NWRN MO BY MON MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A SLIGHT CHC
OF RW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS UPPER FORCING IS WEAK WITH ONLY A MODEST
INCREASE IN THE QUALITY AND DEPTH OF GULF MOISTURE. THE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY WITH SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVES TO RACE THROUGH MO...IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAK
COLD FRONT DRIFTING SE THROUGH MO. FRONTOGENETICAL AND QG FORCING ARE
RATHER WEAK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALSO RATHER
WEAK. HOWEVER...GIVEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AND WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...HIGH CHC POPS APPEAR WARRANTED ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY DUE TO SFC-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RAIN WILL END FM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EXITS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE SFC AND H8 BOUNDARY SHIFTS SE.

DB


&&

.AVIATION...

CONFIDENCE IN A DEVELOPING MVFR DECK HAS WANED TO THE POINT OF
REMOVAL OF SUCH MENTION IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBLE LOWER
SC DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL KANSAS...THOUGH ONLY MET NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
IN FACT...ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE SO LOW...THAT EVEN A TEMPO
MENTION IS NOT WARRANTED. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF LLWS...AS LLJ
AXIS SHOULD REMAIN ORIENTED WEST OF THE TERMINALS...AND CHANGE IN
SPEED SHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL THROUGH THE LOWEST 2K FT AND NOT REACH
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...DEEPER MIXING WILL COMMENCE BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY...CREATING GUSTY SLY SFC WINDS...ONLY TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR LOWERED CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

21


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 080901
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS PACKAGE DEALS WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN
TODAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
THAT WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. DID CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OUT WEST...AS THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER 925MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. ALSO A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH. NEVERTHELESS A VERY WARM DAY IS
ON TAP AS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA
WIDE...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY APPROACH RECORDS SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN TEXAS WILL
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES. OUR AREA WILL OBSERVE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL
NOT REALLY BE ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES...HOWEVER THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. HAVE DOUBTS IF
THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING
THERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

FOSTER

&&

.CLIMATE...

HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS FOR NOVEMBER 8TH.

LOCATION       FORECAST HIGH   RECORD HIGH      YEAR
SPRINGFIELD        76             80         2006/1980
JOPLIN             77             83         2006/1980
WEST PLAINS        77             81           1975
VICHY/ROLLA        78             79           2005

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 080835
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
235 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/235 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY TURNED OUT TO BE 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE
WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND QUITE A BIT ABOVE THE WARMEST MEMBERS OF
THE SREF.  00Z SOUNDINGS AT KILX AND KSGF SHOWED GOOD MIXING UP TO
900MB WITH UNDOUBTEDLY A SUPER-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES NEAR THE
SURFACE DURING MAX HEATING. THERE WILL BE FEW/SCT CIRRUS...HOWEVER
IT SHOULDN`T BE ENOUGH TO TAME A WARM UP LIKE YESTERDAY. THIS IS
BECAUSE CURRENT TEMPS ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO WHAT THEY WERE 24
HOURS AGO...EXPECTED S-SWLY SFC WINDS FAVOR A WARM-UP AND THE SAME
900MB TEMPS OF +16 TO 18C. USED PERSISTENCE WHICH IS 1-3 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE WARMER GFS MOS TEMPS.

NEXT QUESTION DEALS WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT HAS BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH TROUGH THAT DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS
FALLS IN WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GEFS MEAN.
FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER WILL LIFT NWD EARLY TODAY
BUT THEN MOVE BACK SEWD INTO CNTRL/NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL BY LATE
MONDAY AS REMNANT OF THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN MEXICO
MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE CWA ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO WORK WITH WHAT MOISTURE IT ALREADY HAS
AS THE GULF BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE LOW LEVEL WINDS REORIENTING
AS HURRICANE IDA MOVES NWD THROUGH THE GULF. THAT SAID...THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FROM THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NWRN THIRD OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
ON MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE SERN THIRD OF THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SE. DRY WEATHER THEN RETURNS THROUGH LATE WEEK
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SETS IN UNDER A BUILDING UPPER TROUGH.

NAM/GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
LEANED TOWARD THE GFS MOS FOR TUESDAY`S HIGHS GIVEN MY MODEL
PREFERENCE WHICH CALLS FOR EXITING CLOUDS AND NLY WINDS ALL DAY.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1119 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WNID OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO 10 TO 15KT SOUTHWEST WIND ON
SUNDAY. COULD BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KSUS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT GIVEN WIND DIRECTION.

CVKING

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 8TH...

ST. LOUIS.....82 (2005)
COLUMBIA......81 (2005)
QUINCY........84 (1915)

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 080537
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1137 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
USHERING IN MID 70S TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS WERE RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE
BOSTON MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING HAS FADED AWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS WEST
TEXAS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 PROGGED OUT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM SURFACE COLD FRONT. BULK OF MOISTURE AND QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO GULF COASTAL STATES. MODELS ALL HINTING AT SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH QPF TOTALS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE MID 30S DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUICK TURNAROUND IN
TEMPS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON BACK SIDE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. MUCH
OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.

LINDENBERG


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

FOSTER



&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 080534
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON MONDAY THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR SIDE CHALLENGES. THE
FIRST ONE IS WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL FORM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
STRATUS OVER TX THIS MORNING WAS AROUND THE 950MB LEVEL. SEE 18Z
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR REASONING ON EXPECTED STRATUS FORMATION LATE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SECOND ITEM IS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MAX TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TOMORROW
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE MIXING THAN TODAY. SO THE GREATER MIXING
DEPTH WILL PRETTY MUCH BALANCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TODAY.

AS FOR MONDAYS RAIN IT WILL BE TIED TO TWO THINGS...POST FRONTAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE GLIDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FASTER THAN WHAT MODEL QPF SHOWS WITH ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS
BEING INITIATED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THINK ANY RAIN WILL BE TOO
LIGHT TO ACCUMULATE SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NW MO
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
OVERALL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE GFS AS 12Z NAM APPEARED TO BE
THE OUTLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOO FAST AND OVERFORECASTING
STRENGTH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUPPORT
ADDING MENTION OF EMBEDDED THUNDER AS TONGUE OF ELEVATED CAPE
STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MO.

MJ

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES AS
BROAD RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLICING FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BUT THE IDEA IS THE
SAME. WE SHOULD BE IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
PATTERN. THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NECESSARILY COLD...BEING
A MARITIME AIRMASS...BUT IT IS EARLY NOVEMBER AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS JUST DO NOT FAVOR MUCH OF WARM UP OR EVEN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SO CONTINUED TO INDICATE HIGHS ON THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SURFACE FEATURES BOTH MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS LEADS TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A CHILLY MORNING
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. IF EVEN
DRIER AIR MOVES IN COULD LOWS FALL EVEN FARTHER.

WEDNESDAY:
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. SO TRENDED
COOLER FOR HIGHS IN THAT AREA. ACROSS OUR WEST MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL AND BEING MORE REMOVED FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE INCREASED MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.
REGARDLESS...ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR EAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
FOR THURSDAY...A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHWEST LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. WE WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT MIXING FROM THIS SCENARIO
SO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/07 VERSION OF THE
ECMWF MOVES A FRONT INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE GFS WITH THE
ENTIRE REGION WELL WITHIN THE WARM AIR. BOTH MODELS STILL INDICATE
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP HIGHS RESTRAINED TO THE LOW/MID 60S. THE
WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AT LEAST WHEN THE NEXT
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

CONFIDENCE IN A DEVELOPING MVFR DECK HAS WANED TO THE POINT OF
REMOVAL OF SUCH MENTION IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBLE LOWER
SC DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL KANSAS...THOUGH ONLY MET NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HINTS AT ANY BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINAL CORRIDOR.
IN FACT...ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE SO LOW...THAT EVEN A TEMPO
MENTION IS NOT WARRANTED. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF LLWS...AS LLJ
AXIS SHOULD REMAIN ORIENTED WEST OF THE TERMINALS...AND CHANGE IN
SPEED SHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL THROUGH THE LOWEST 2K FT AND NOT REACH
CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...DEEPER MIXING WILL COMMENCE BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY...CREATING GUSTY SLY SFC WINDS...ONLY TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CHANCE FOR LOWERED CIGS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 080520
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1120 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/437 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS TOMORROW AND PRECIP CHCS
ON MON NIGHT/TUE.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW AS
EVIDENCED BY 21Z METAR OBS OF 73-78 F ACROSS THE CWA. TOMORROW LOOKS
AT LEAST AS WARM AS TODAY WITH GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING H92 TEMPS OF
14-16 C...CONTINUED SWLY WINDS PROMOTING MIXING TO 925MB...AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE.

RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUE AS
CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
WITH COMPARABLE TIMING BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GEM. COMBINATION OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ASCENT FM SHORTWAVE TROF WARRANT
CONTINUATION OF SCHC-CHC POPS FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA DURING 0-12Z TUE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW PRES SYS OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL
REMAIN S OF THE BISTATE REGION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN WITH FROPA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SETTLES OVER THE GRTLKS LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY
PD.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BEYOND THU. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
DVLP A WRN CONUS TROF BUT THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING ANOTHER CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT WHILE THE
ECMWF DELAYS FROPA UNTIL MON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND POPS
AFTER THU DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1119 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WNID OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO 10 TO 15KT SOUTHWEST WIND ON
SUNDAY. COULD BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KSUS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AIRPORT GIVEN WIND DIRECTION.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 072325
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
525 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON MONDAY THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR SIDE CHALLENGES. THE
FIRST ONE IS WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL FORM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
STRATUS OVER TX THIS MORNING WAS AROUND THE 950MB LEVEL. SEE 18Z
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR REASONING ON EXPECTED STRATUS FORMATION LATE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SECOND ITEM IS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MAX TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TOMORROW
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE MIXING THAN TODAY. SO THE GREATER MIXING
DEPTH WILL PRETTY MUCH BALANCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TODAY.

AS FOR MONDAYS RAIN IT WILL BE TIED TO TWO THINGS...POST FRONTAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE GLIDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FASTER THAN WHAT MODEL QPF SHOWS WITH ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS
BEING INITIATED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THINK ANY RAIN WILL BE TOO
LIGHT TO ACCUMULATE SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NW MO
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
OVERALL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE GFS AS 12Z NAM APPEARED TO BE
THE OUTLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOO FAST AND OVERFORECASTING
STRENGTH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUPPORT
ADDING MENTION OF EMBEDDED THUNDER AS TONGUE OF ELEVATED CAPE
STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MO.

MJ

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES AS
BROAD RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLICING FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BUT THE IDEA IS THE
SAME. WE SHOULD BE IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
PATTERN. THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NECESSARILY COLD...BEING
A MARITIME AIRMASS...BUT IT IS EARLY NOVEMBER AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS JUST DO NOT FAVOR MUCH OF WARM UP OR EVEN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SO CONTINUED TO INDICATE HIGHS ON THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SURFACE FEATURES BOTH MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS LEADS TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A CHILLY MORNING
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. IF EVEN
DRIER AIR MOVES IN COULD LOWS FALL EVEN FARTHER.

WEDNESDAY:
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. SO TRENDED
COOLER FOR HIGHS IN THAT AREA. ACROSS OUR WEST MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL AND BEING MORE REMOVED FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE INCREASED MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.
REGARDLESS...ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR EAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
FOR THURSDAY...A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHWEST LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. WE WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT MIXING FROM THIS SCENARIO
SO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/07 VERSION OF THE
ECMWF MOVES A FRONT INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE GFS WITH THE
ENTIRE REGION WELL WITHIN THE WARM AIR. BOTH MODELS STILL INDICATE
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP HIGHS RESTRAINED TO THE LOW/MID 60S. THE
WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AT LEAST WHEN THE NEXT
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CIRRUS AND LIGHT SLY WINDS WILL PREDOMINATE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS FORMATION AS LLJ AND MOISTURE FLUX INCREASES
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SOLID MVFR DECK WAS OBSERVED IN TEXAS THIS
MORNING...AND SOME MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE SUCH A DECK
MATERIALIZING ACROSS TERMINAL CORRIDOR NEAR 12Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
TREMENDOUS...THOUGH ENOUGH TO LEAVE PREVIOUS MVFR FORECAST GOING.
OTHERWISE...DEEPER MIXING WILL COMMENCE LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...ELIMINATING ANY RESIDUAL STRATUS AND CREATING GUSTY SLY
SFC WINDS.

21

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 072322
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
USHERING IN MID 70S TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS WERE RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE
BOSTON MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING HAS FADED AWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS WEST
TEXAS.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 PROGGED OUT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM SURFACE COLD FRONT. BULK OF MOISTURE AND QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO GULF COASTAL STATES. MODELS ALL HINTING AT SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH QPF TOTALS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE MID 30S DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUICK TURNAROUND IN
TEMPS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON BACK SIDE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. MUCH
OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.

LINDENBERG


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST
INTO SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SHALLOW STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 072322
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
522 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/437 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS TOMORROW AND PRECIP CHCS
ON MON NIGHT/TUE.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW AS
EVIDENCED BY 21Z METAR OBS OF 73-78 F ACROSS THE CWA. TOMORROW LOOKS
AT LEAST AS WARM AS TODAY WITH GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING H92 TEMPS OF
14-16 C...CONTINUED SWLY WINDS PROMOTING MIXING TO 925MB...AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE.

RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUE AS
CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
WITH COMPARABLE TIMING BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GEM. COMBINATION OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ASCENT FM SHORTWAVE TROF WARRANT
CONTINUATION OF SCHC-CHC POPS FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA DURING 0-12Z TUE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW PRES SYS OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL
REMAIN S OF THE BISTATE REGION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN WITH FROPA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SETTLES OVER THE GRTLKS LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY
PD.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BEYOND THU. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
DVLP A WRN CONUS TROF BUT THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING ANOTHER CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT WHILE THE
ECMWF DELAYS FROPA UNTIL MON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND POPS
AFTER THU DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/519 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WIND. COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HAVE ALSO KEPT VCFG FOR
KSUS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO MISSOURI RIVER.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KLSX 072240
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
440 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/437 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS TOMORROW AND PRECIP CHCS
ON MON NIGHT/TUE.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO LOW AS
EVIDENCED BY 21Z METAR OBS OF 73-78 F ACROSS THE CWA. TOMORROW LOOKS
AT LEAST AS WARM AS TODAY WITH GFS/NAM/ECMWF SHOWING H92 TEMPS OF
14-16 C...CONTINUED SWLY WINDS PROMOTING MIXING TO 925MB...AND AMPLE
SUNSHINE.

RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON TUE AS
CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING
WITH COMPARABLE TIMING BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/GEM. COMBINATION OF
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ASCENT FM SHORTWAVE TROF WARRANT
CONTINUATION OF SCHC-CHC POPS FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGHEST POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA DURING 0-12Z TUE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW PRES SYS OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL
REMAIN S OF THE BISTATE REGION AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...THUS DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN WITH FROPA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SETTLES OVER THE GRTLKS LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY
PD.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BEYOND THU. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
DVLP A WRN CONUS TROF BUT THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING ANOTHER CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT WHILE THE
ECMWF DELAYS FROPA UNTIL MON. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AND POPS
AFTER THU DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1138 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE 15-25KT WINDS FROM
230-250 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI BEFORE STALLING THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO
5-7KTS BY 22-23Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
RIVER FOG WILL BE A REAL POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT...THO SOUTHERLY
FLOW ISN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR ADVECTING FOG ONTO THE KSUS
TERMINAL...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH VCFG RATHER THAN THE TEMPO
WHICH WAS IN PREVIOUS TAF. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.


CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 072143
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
342 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON MONDAY THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MINOR SIDE CHALLENGES. THE
FIRST ONE IS WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS WILL FORM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
STRATUS OVER TX THIS MORNING WAS AROUND THE 950MB LEVEL. SEE 18Z
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR REASONING ON EXPECTED STRATUS FORMATION LATE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. SECOND ITEM IS MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE MAX TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN TOMORROW
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE MIXING THAN TODAY. SO THE GREATER MIXING
DEPTH WILL PRETTY MUCH BALANCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN SUNDAY MAX TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
TODAY.

AS FOR MONDAYS RAIN IT WILL BE TIED TO TWO THINGS...POST FRONTAL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE GLIDING IN FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
ARRIVE FASTER THAN WHAT MODEL QPF SHOWS WITH ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS
BEING INITIATED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTM...THINK ANY RAIN WILL BE TOO
LIGHT TO ACCUMULATE SO WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NW MO
FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY.
OVERALL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE GFS AS 12Z NAM APPEARED TO BE
THE OUTLIER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING TOO FAST AND OVERFORECASTING
STRENGTH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. GFS AND NAM ALSO SUPPORT
ADDING MENTION OF EMBEDDED THUNDER AS TONGUE OF ELEVATED CAPE
STREAMS NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT.
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MO.

MJ

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES AS
BROAD RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SLICING FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON THE ECMWF. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BUT THE IDEA IS THE
SAME. WE SHOULD BE IN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
PATTERN. THE ORIGIN OF THIS AIRMASS IS NOT NECESSARILY COLD...BEING
A MARITIME AIRMASS...BUT IT IS EARLY NOVEMBER AND NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS JUST DO NOT FAVOR MUCH OF WARM UP OR EVEN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SO CONTINUED TO INDICATE HIGHS ON THE LOW END OF
GUIDANCE WHICH GIVES VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF MOVES THE SURFACE HIGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST. THE GFS MOVES THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE SURFACE FEATURES BOTH MODELS INDICATE DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS LEADS TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A CHILLY MORNING
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. IF EVEN
DRIER AIR MOVES IN COULD LOWS FALL EVEN FARTHER.

WEDNESDAY:
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. SO TRENDED
COOLER FOR HIGHS IN THAT AREA. ACROSS OUR WEST MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL AND BEING MORE REMOVED FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE INCREASED MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT.
REGARDLESS...ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AT
THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS OUR EAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
FOR THURSDAY...A RETURN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED AS SOUTHWEST LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT WARM AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. WE WILL LIKELY SEE DECENT MIXING FROM THIS SCENARIO
SO HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z/07 VERSION OF THE
ECMWF MOVES A FRONT INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE GFS WITH THE
ENTIRE REGION WELL WITHIN THE WARM AIR. BOTH MODELS STILL INDICATE
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP HIGHS RESTRAINED TO THE LOW/MID 60S. THE
WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE END OF WEEK AT LEAST WHEN THE NEXT
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND ALLOWING WINDS
TO PICK UP SOME. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE/STRATUS NOW OVER TX TO HEAD NORTH. MORNING SOUNDING SHOW
THIS MOISTURE AT THE 950MB LEVEL OR ROUGHLY 1K FT. NAM/GFS MODELS
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION OF 12/13C DEWPOINTS AND NEAR SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH THE TX STRATUS. THESE FIELDS ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH TONIGHT. CONCEPTUAL MODEL POINTS TO THE
STRATUS AS DEVELOPING OVERHEAD VS CLOUDS SURGING NORTH. WILL START
OFF WITH A BKN CEILING AND MVFR FOG FORMING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WITH THE MOISTURE BEING RELATIVELY SHALLOW IT SHOULD MIX OUT
BY 15Z/16Z.

HAVE ALSO ADDED A LLWS THREAT FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONGER
CORE OF 2K FT WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS SPREADS INTO THE REGION.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 072022
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
222 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...OVERVIEW...
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

...CURRENTLY...
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
USHERING IN MID 70S TEMEPRATURES. DEWPOINTS WERE RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS DECK SOUTH OF THE
BOSTON MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING HAS FADED AWAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS WEST TEXAS.

...SHORT TERM...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM FORECST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
FAIRLY DRY. PW VALUES OF AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 PROGGED OUT THROUGH
SUNDAY. MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM SURFACE COLD FRONT. BULK OF MOISTURE AND QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO GULF COASTAL STATES. MODELS ALL HINTING AT SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH QPF TOTALS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE MID 30S DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

...LONG TERM...

COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUICK TURNAROUND IN
TEMPS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON BACK SIDE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. MUCH
OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST REMAINS DRY WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.


LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER NOW OVER EASTERN TX/ARKLATEX TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. BELIEVE IF ANY STRATUS WERE TO ADVECT INTO
SOUTHERN MO...IT WOULD HAVE TO FIGHT TERRAIN AND EVEN THEN WOULD
LIKELY QUICKLY MIX OUT DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY. A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST/PLAINS
WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN ALL TAFS TONIGHT. DSA


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 071810
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...THEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
CHANCES EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
THESE BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE WINDS RELAXING SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...MAINLY WEST...AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS ADVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT STRONG AND A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND IT WILL NOT MOISTEN UP ALL THAT MUCH AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...WITH ALL RAIN REMAINING
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WISE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER NOW OVER EASTERN TX/ARKLATEX TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. BELIEVE IF ANY STRATUS WERE TO ADVECT INTO
SOUTHERN MO...IT WOULD HAVE TO FIGHT TERRAIN AND EVEN THEN WOULD
LIKELY QUICKLY MIX OUT DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY. A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST/PLAINS
WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN ALL TAFS TONIGHT. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 071748
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1148 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/218 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

MAIN CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS TURNED OUT TO BE UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECAME WELL MIXED TO
AROUND 900MB WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL BETWEEN 12-16C.  THERE
WAS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALBEIT THE RELATIVELY WEAK NOVEMBER SUN
WITH GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH ARE TYPICALLY GOOD FOR
A WARMUP. 900MB TEMP WILL BE SIMILIAR TODAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON SUNDAY...SO WITH MIXING...CONTINUED S-SWLY SFC WINDS AND
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE BY 2-4 DEGREES
WHICH YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL OFF A BIT ON MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A FRONT MOVING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA AND USED THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND VARIOUS VORTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ONLY SUPPLY MINIMAL ASCENT IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  THERE IS A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NRN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AS ITS ATTENDANT UPPER
TROUGH RACES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT IT WON`T MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE MO/IA BORDER
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD EARLY ON SUNDAY.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
EJECTS NEWD.  MODELS DO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT THESE FEATURES WILL
BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ASCENT FROM TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WARRANT KEEPING GOING CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUSIDENCE THEN SETS IN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGES BUILDS OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1138 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE 15-25KT WINDS FROM
230-250 DEGREES AHEAD OF A DECENT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI BEFORE STALLING THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO
5-7KTS BY 22-23Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
RIVER FOG WILL BE A REAL POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT...THO SOUTHERLY
FLOW ISN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR ADVECTING FOG ONTO THE KSUS
TERMINAL...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH VCFG RATHER THAN THE TEMPO
WHICH WAS IN PREVIOUS TAF. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.


CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 071739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1139 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR DISCUSSION. WEAK PRES RISES BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOWLY
DRIVING A WEAK CDFNT INTO XTRM NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
STG ZONAL FLOW AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE MODELS APPEAR
REASONABLE IN DISSIPATING THE FRONT IN NRN MO THIS AFTN. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL GIVE TEMPS A SLIGHT BOOST.
TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM THIS MORNING GIVEN THE WINDS...AND WITH THE
WARM START AND GOOD INSOLATION TODAY...ONCE AGAIN BELIEVE THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD. THE WARMEST MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAVE VERIFIED WELL LATELY. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR XTRM NWRN MO FOR LATE
SUN NGT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MOISTURE RETURN IS MODEST AT
BEST...WEAK TO NIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH THE SHEAR ALSO RATHER
WEAK.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT LIES ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND ALLOWING WINDS
TO PICK UP SOME. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW DEEPER
MOISTURE/STRATUS NOW OVER TX TO HEAD NORTH. MORNING SOUNDING SHOW
THIS MOISTURE AT THE 950MB LEVEL OR ROUGHLY 1K FT. NAM/GFS MODELS
SHOW GOOD CORRELATION OF 12/13C DEWPOINTS AND NEAR SATURATED
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH THE TX STRATUS. THESE FIELDS ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE NORTH TONIGHT. CONCEPTUAL MODEL POINTS TO THE
STRATUS AS DEVELOPING OVERHEAD VS CLOUDS SURGING NORTH. WILL START
OFF WITH A BKN CEILING AND MVFR FOG FORMING DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WITH THE MOISTURE BEING RELATIVELY SHALLOW IT SHOULD MIX OUT
BY 15Z/16Z.

HAVE ALSO ADDED A LLWS THREAT FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONGER
CORE OF 2K FT WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS SPREADS INTO THE REGION.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KEAX 071129
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
525 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR DISCUSSION. WEAK PRES RISES BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOWLY
DRIVING A WEAK CDFNT INTO XTRM NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE
STG ZONAL FLOW AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE MODELS APPEAR
REASONABLE IN DISSIPATING THE FRONT IN NRN MO THIS AFTN. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL GIVE TEMPS A SLIGHT BOOST.
TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM THIS MORNING GIVEN THE WINDS...AND WITH THE
WARM START AND GOOD INSOLATION TODAY...ONCE AGAIN BELIEVE THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD. THE WARMEST MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAVE VERIFIED WELL LATELY. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR XTRM NWRN MO FOR LATE
SUN NGT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MOISTURE RETURN IS MODEST AT
BEST...WEAK TO NIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH THE SHEAR ALSO RATHER
WEAK.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.  SFC WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN...HOWEVER NOT AS STRONG AS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF FRI.  A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO SETTLE INTO NORTHERN
MO THIS EVENING...AND MAY ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SE
BRIEFLY.  OTHERWISE...LLWS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED BY LATER
SHIFTS FOR SUN MORNING AS STRONGER CORE OF 2K FT WINDS APPROACHING
45 KNOTS DEVELOPS BY 09Z.

DUX

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 071121
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
521 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...THEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
CHANCES EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
THESE BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE WINDS RELAXING SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...MAINLY WEST...AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS ADVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT STRONG AND A PRETTY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND IT WILL NOT MOISTEN UP ALL THAT MUCH AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...WITH ALL RAIN REMAINING
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WISE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT NIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS DURING THE DAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 071116
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
514 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/218 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

MAIN CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS TURNED OUT TO BE UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECAME WELL MIXED TO
AROUND 900MB WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL BETWEEN 12-16C.  THERE
WAS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALBEIT THE RELATIVELY WEAK NOVEMBER SUN
WITH GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH ARE TYPICALLY GOOD FOR
A WARMUP. 900MB TEMP WILL BE SIMILIAR TODAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON SUNDAY...SO WITH MIXING...CONTINUED S-SWLY SFC WINDS AND
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE BY 2-4 DEGREES
WHICH YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL OFF A BIT ON MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A FRONT MOVING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA AND USED THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND VARIOUS VORTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ONLY SUPPLY MINIMAL ASCENT IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  THERE IS A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NRN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AS ITS ATTENDANT UPPER
TROUGH RACES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT IT WON`T MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE MO/IA BORDER
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD EARLY ON SUNDAY.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
EJECTS NEWD.  MODELS DO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT THESE FEATURES WILL
BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ASCENT FROM TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WARRANT KEEPING GOING CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUSIDENCE THEN SETS IN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGES BUILDS OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS.

BRITT
&&

.AVIATION...
/514 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 15Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR REST OF FORECAST...
WINDS TO BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. ONLY ADDITION WAS MENTION OF SOME LIGHT FOG AT KSUS LATE
TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THERE WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE... ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KEAX 070908
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
308 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR DISCUSSION. WEAK PRES RISES BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING
RAPIDLY ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SLOWLY
DRIVING A WEAK CDFNT INTO XTRM NWRN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE STG
ZONAL FLOW AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE
IN DISSIPATING THE FRONT IN NRN MO THIS AFTN. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL GIVE TEMPS A SLIGHT BOOST.
TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM THIS MORNING GIVEN THE WINDS...AND WITH THE
WARM START AND GOOD INSOLATION TODAY...ONCE AGAIN BELIEVE THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD. THE WARMEST MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAVE VERIFIED WELL LATELY. BETTER MIXING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS FOR XTRM NWRN MO FOR LATE
SUN NGT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MOISTURE RETURN IS MODEST AT
BEST...WEAK TO NIL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH THE SHEAR ALSO RATHER
WEAK.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES RATHER DRY. WINDS MAY TURN TO
THE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT THE TERMINALS BY THIS AFTN.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL DISSIPATE BY EVENING.

DB


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KSGF 070853
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO DEAL WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...THEN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
CHANCES EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.

BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
THESE BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH THE WINDS RELAXING SOME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...MAINLY WEST...AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THIS ADVECTION WILL NOT BE ALL
THAT STRONG AND A PRETTY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...DO NOT THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN
INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND IT WILL NOT MOISTEN UP ALL THAT MUCH AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AS THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE
FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH...SO HAVE RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...WITH ALL RAIN REMAINING
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE PRIMARY FLIGHT HAZARD WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLSX 070818
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
218 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/218 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

MAIN CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
FRIDAY`S HIGHS TURNED OUT TO BE UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV/MET
GUIDANCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECAME WELL MIXED TO
AROUND 900MB WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL BETWEEN 12-16C.  THERE
WAS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ALBEIT THE RELATIVELY WEAK NOVEMBER SUN
WITH GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH ARE TYPICALLY GOOD FOR
A WARMUP. 900MB TEMP WILL BE SIMILIAR TODAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER ON SUNDAY...SO WITH MIXING...CONTINUED S-SWLY SFC WINDS AND
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE BY 2-4 DEGREES
WHICH YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL OFF A BIT ON MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND A FRONT MOVING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA AND USED THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

STILL LOOKS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND VARIOUS VORTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ONLY SUPPLY MINIMAL ASCENT IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  THERE IS A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NRN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AS ITS ATTENDANT UPPER
TROUGH RACES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT IT WON`T MAKE IT MUCH PAST THE MO/IA BORDER
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD EARLY ON SUNDAY.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN CONUS AT THE SAME TIME THAT UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
EJECTS NEWD.  MODELS DO SHOW AGREEMENT THAT THESE FEATURES WILL
BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ASCENT FROM TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WARRANT KEEPING GOING CHANCE OF RAIN.
SUSIDENCE THEN SETS IN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGES BUILDS OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1035 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...S-SWLY SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE LATE TGT...WITH
STRONG WNDS ALOFT AS THE PROFILER NETWORK WAS SHOWING A 50 KT SWLY
LLJ OVER THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LLWS IN THE TAFS UNTIL
15Z SAT AS THE NAM MODEL FORECASTS 2000 FT WNDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS
AT THE TAF SITES FROM A SWLY DIRECTION. SFC WNDS WILL BE SWLY ON
SAT BUT NOT AS STRONG OR GUSTY AS THEY WERE ON FRI AS A WEAK DRY
CDFNT SAGS SWD INTO NRN MO. SFC WNDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM A S-SELY
DIRECTION SAT EVENING. MUCH OF THE HI LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM COU
TO STL SHOULD SHIFT SE OF THE TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SAT.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX

000
FXUS63 KSGF 070539
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1139 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO IOWA
BUT MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS SKC. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU WHERE
GTE 30KTS HAVE BEEN ATTAINED. FULL SUN AND GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION
HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S TODAY.
DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 50 WHICH HAVE
KEPT RH MINS HIGH ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TODAY.

PLEASANT NOVEMBER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE CWA THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH HIGHS SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TODAY OVER THE WEEKEND AS FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE LOWER INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA BY LATE
MONDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE (OR LACK THERE OF) WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL MAINTAINING LOW
POPS FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS GFS BRINGING MOST OF THE
QPF IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. QPF AMOUNTS APPEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THEN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD BY
MIDWEEK WITH A RETURN TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BY
LATE IN THE WEEK.

LINDENBERG


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE PRIMARY FLIGHT HAZARD WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.

FOSTER




&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$