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000
FXUS64 KJAN 082118
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
318 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO REVOLVE
AROUND IDA AND HER INTERACTION WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
THE WET PERIOD OF WEATHER WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT.
NOT A GREAT DEAL HAS CHANGED FROM WHAT I DISCUSSED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN I TALKED ABOUT WAS THE POSSIBLE
SLOWER/FURTHER W SOLUTIONS OF A COUPLE OPERATIONAL MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z DATA ARRIVED AND SLOWED THINGS DOWN MORE IN LINE
WITH THE NHC FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT EXISTS
WITH THE VARIOUS TRACK GUID WITH STILL A FEW OUTLYING SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER W RUNS. DUE TO THIS I FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BUT KEEPING IN THE BACK OF MY MIND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY FASTER (6 HRS OR SO) SCENARIO WHICH COULD
IN TURN LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY MORE W TRACK. EITHER WAY...IMPACTS ACROSS
MY CWA WILL BE THE SAME. ANYTHING A BIT TO THE W OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK SHOULD ONLY INCREASE THE SFC WINDS SOME...BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE RANGE I WILL SHORTLY DISCUSS. AS FOR THE WIND IMPACTS...NOT TOO
MUCH AS I CAN SEE SOME SUSTAINED NE/N WINDS...WITH IN AN AXIS FROM
COLUMBIA TO QUITMAN...FROM 20-30 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS.
JUST TO THE NW OF THAT LINE...LOOK FOR 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. DUE TO THIS...WE WILL TIER A LAKE WIND AND PLAIN WIND ADV TO
COVER THAT POTENTIAL. IT WILL START AT 3 PM MON AND GO INTO EARLY
TUE.
THE OVERALL PRECIP AREA AND RAINFALL AMOUNT FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
TRICKY SIDE. I SAY THIS BECAUSE THE RAIN AREA THAT WILL IMPACT THE
CWA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA...BUT NOT WITH THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM. ACTUALLY...IT WILL BE FORMED FROM STRONG ASCENT AS IDA...AND
HER ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...INTERACTS WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND PHASES WITH A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS THE W GULF. RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AND I FOCUSED THE ONSET OF
LIGHT RAIN TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. GUID CONTINUES TO
DEPICT AN AXIS OF DEFORMATION TYPE PRECIP WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
SW TO NE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE SORT OF SET UPS ARE
USUALLY HARD TO PINPOINT AN AREA AND OFTEN RESULT IN STRONG GRADIENTS
ACROSS SMALL DISTANCES (SHARP BACK EDGES). THE EURO WAS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEFORMATION AXIS AND FURTHER WEST. I CAN SEE
SOMETHING LIKE THAT OCCURRING...BUT FEEL THAT IT IS OVER DONE AND TOO
FAR W/NW. AS A RESULT...I USED MORE OF A EURO/GFS BLEND...SOMETHING
SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SREH OUTPUT. THIS STILL FOCUSES THE MAIN RAIN
AXIS WITH IN AND E/SE OF THE TRACE. SAME THINKING EXISTS FOR A STEADY
RAIN WITH MODEST TO LIGHT RAINFALL RATES. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATIONS
WILL ADD UP...BUT OVER A FAIRLY LONG DURATION AND NOT POSE A FLOODING
THREAT...ONLY SOME PONDING DUE TO STEADY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...THE
MAIN RAIN PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MON NIGHT.
AS FOR THE FORECAST ELEMENTS...GUID POPS WERE DECENT AND I BASICALLY
FOLLOWED. I DID INCREASE ALL AREAS MON NIGHT WITH AND INCREASE IN
THE E EARLY ON TUE. AS FOR TEMPS...NO GLARING ERRORS FROM THE GUID
AND I GENERALLY USED THE GFS. HOWEVER...I DID USE A BLEND FOR MON
NIGHT AS THE GFS SEEMED TOO COOL. THE OTHER ADJ WERE TOO COOL DOWN
WED AS SOME CAA SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
NORTH AND THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL TAPPER OFF A
BIT THIS EVENING...BUT SITES SHOULD MAINTAIN SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING
TO HINDER ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE AREA BECOMES WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
HURRICANE IDA APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. LOOK FOR EASTERLY WINDS
ON MONDAY TO GENERALLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD BECOME SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS...BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET...POSSIBLE
MONDAY. IN ADDITION...AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY AT SITES WHERE RAINFALL IS OBSERVED. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 55 68 57 71 / 20 57 77 23
MERIDIAN 54 68 57 69 / 10 59 91 45
VICKSBURG 56 67 57 71 / 29 53 56 10
HATTIESBURG 57 69 58 72 / 27 91 92 23
NATCHEZ 58 67 58 71 / 45 75 55 10
GREENVILLE 56 69 55 75 / 10 29 48 7
GREENWOOD 55 70 56 70 / 8 32 57 21
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ057-
058-064>066-072>074.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MSZ051-052-055-056-063.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/19
000
FXUS64 KJAN 081604 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1004 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND NO
ADJ WERE NEEDED TO THOSE. HOWEVER...THE WARM UP THIS MORNING WAS MUCH
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND I HAD TO ADJ HOURLY TEMPS QUITE A BIT.
THIS WARMING SHOULD SLOW AS WE ARE MIXING TO THE INVERSION AND WE
SHOULD SEE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF IDA AND ANY IMPACTS IN OUR AREA FOR MON
THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE SITUATION REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED AS IDA
WILL INTERACT WITH A LOW PRESSURE FEATURE IN THE WESTERN GULF AND
THEY WILL ALL INTERACT WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
OVER THE BIG BEND OF TX. ITS THIS ENTIRE INTERACTION THAT SHOULD
CAUSE IDA TO WEAKEN SOME AND TAKE ON MORE EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. IT WILL ALSO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FORWARD SPEED WHICH
ULTIMATELY WILL DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE A LANDFALL AND WHERE THAT
MAY OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS STEADILY TRENDED FASTER EACH
ADV AND NOW HAS IDA MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE TUE AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OPERATIONAL
EURO/GFS/NAM ARE ALL AT LEAST 12HRS FASTER AND HAVE A LANDFALL FURTHER
WEST BETWEEN THE SE LA COAST AND MOBILE BAY LATE MON AFTERNOON/MON
EVE. ALL THE FORECASTS HAVE MERIT AND THE GOING FORECASTS HANDLES THE
SITUATION. IF THE EVENTUAL TRACK IS FASTER AND CLOSER TO THE MS
COAST...THEN THERE WILL BE MORE OF A WIND IMPACT ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE SE CWA. STILL WINDS DON`T APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG BUT WOULD
LIKELY FIT INTO SOME SORT OF WIND ADV CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
25-30 MPH AND GUSTS 30-40 MPH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA WILL BE TIGHT AND RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. IF THE TRACK IS
SLOWER AND FURTHER E...THEN JUST THE PLAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD
APPLY FOR ALL...MAIN THE SE/E PORTION OF THE AREA. NEW MODEL GUID IS
ARRIVING THIS MORNING AND WE WILL SORT THROUGH THAT FOR THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
THE RAINFALL SITUATION STILL SEEMS ON TARGET FROM PREV FORECASTS.
STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS SOME SORT OF DEFORMATION AXIS SETS UP.
LOOK FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF STEADY RAIN WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2-4
INCHES SE OF THE TRACE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH
HOW THE PRECIP AXIS SETS UP AND AREAS TO THE W/NW OF THAT AXIS WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. LOOK FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TODAY TO AGAIN BE BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
UP AROUND 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE AS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. LOOK FOR
EASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. WHILE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. HOWEVER...AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THIS TIME...PERIODS OF AT LEAST MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY AT
SITES THAT OBSERVE ANY RAINFALL. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE HURRICANE IDA AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS.
FOR TODAY...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTHERLY WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPPER HIGH
LOCATED TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...MID TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE. MAV GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL.
FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTS TO THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT AHEAD OF TWO FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL S/WV MOVING EAST
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SW TEXAS...AND THE MORE OBVIOUS HURRICANE IDA
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EVENTUAL IMPACT
THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE ON OUR CWA IS SURPRISINGLY QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. NHC IS KEEPING THE CENTER OF IDA OFFSHORE IN THEIR
LATEST FORECAST AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE ARKLAMISS...AND THIS
TRACK IS SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLNS. AS
FOR THE TX S/WV...BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MOVING OVER THE ARKLAMISS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. SO THE DILEMMA REMAINS...IF IDA TRACKS
CLOSER TO OUR CWA...HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO
CENTRAL MS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE SEE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE S/WV.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IDA...AND THE FASTER/WWD SOLUTIONS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. LUCKILY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WAS A REDUCTION POPS
TO NEAR MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN ANY SIG
PRECIP MAKING IT THAT FAR NORTH. MAINTAINED ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND MORE PROMINENTLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
PRECIP IS ALMOST CERTAIN. AS THIS EVENT EVOLVES...IF AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF IDA DUE TO A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK, POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE BUMPED BACK UP ABOVE
GUIDANCE. ANOTHER IMPACT TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS THE REDUCTION IN
QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. AN IDA TRACK FURTHER
OFFSHORE WOULD MEAN LOWER QPF TOTALS OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED BACK UP IF IDA TAKES A CLOSER
TRACK TO THE ARKLAMISS.
DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO. THE
ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
THE WIND FORECAST DUE TO THE IDA TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC AS WELL AS A
CLOSER TRACK TO THE COAST WILL MEAN MUCH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ON
MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 15-20 MPH WINDS IN THE FORECAST AS THIS
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE. MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT WILL KEEP IT
GOING FOR NOW. MAV LOWS LOOKED REASONABLE MON AND TUES MORNING BUT
DID BUMP HIGHS MON A TAD BASED ON A LITTLE LESS RAIN THAT IS
EXPECTED. SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK.
/BK/
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST RIDGE TO
BREAK DOWN QUICKLY TUESDAY WITH OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ZIPPING BY TO THE EAST. ANY LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATIC AVERAGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS
NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS WOULD PLACE THE ARKLAMISS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODELS ARE VERY CHAOTIC WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN
THIS PERIOD...SO IT SEEMS MOST REASONABLE TO ACCEPT THE LOW-END MEX
MOS POPS FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING AND TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIMITED. CAN IMAGINE THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL NOT BE OUT OT THE
QUESTION IN THIS PATTERN AND THAT WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS WE GO
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 74 56 68 57 / 0 17 69 75
MERIDIAN 74 52 68 55 / 0 10 71 89
VICKSBURG 74 56 69 57 / 0 20 63 61
HATTIESBURG 74 57 70 59 / 3 30 91 82
NATCHEZ 73 58 68 57 / 4 35 76 63
GREENVILLE 73 55 68 55 / 0 7 33 39
GREENWOOD 76 54 70 56 / 0 6 35 48
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/19
000
FXUS64 KJAN 081059
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
455 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO
BE HURRICANE IDA AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS.
FOR TODAY...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTHERLY WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE UPPER HIGH
LOCATED TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY...MID TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE. MAV GUIDANCE
SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WELL.
FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTS TO THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT AHEAD OF TWO FEATURES...AN UPPER LEVEL S/WV MOVING EAST
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SW TEXAS...AND THE MORE OBVIOUS HURRICANE IDA
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE EVENTUAL IMPACT
THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE ON OUR CWA IS SURPRISINGLY QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. NHC IS KEEPING THE CENTER OF IDA OFFSHORE IN THEIR
LATEST FORECAST AND WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE ARKLAMISS...AND THIS
TRACK IS SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST THAN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLNS. AS
FOR THE TX S/WV...BOTH MODELS AGREE WITH THE DEEP LAYER LIFT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MOVING OVER THE ARKLAMISS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EXITING TUESDAY MORNING. SO THE DILEMMA REMAINS...IF IDA TRACKS
CLOSER TO OUR CWA...HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO
CENTRAL MS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE SEE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE S/WV.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IDA...AND THE FASTER/WWD SOLUTIONS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF. LUCKILY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST WERE NEEDED. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WAS A REDUCTION POPS
TO NEAR MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH IN ANY SIG
PRECIP MAKING IT THAT FAR NORTH. MAINTAINED ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND MORE PROMINENTLY SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE
PRECIP IS ALMOST CERTAIN. AS THIS EVENT EVOLVES...IF AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF IDA DUE TO A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK, POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE BUMPED BACK UP ABOVE
GUIDANCE. ANOTHER IMPACT TO THE GOING FORECAST WAS THE REDUCTION IN
QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. AN IDA TRACK FURTHER
OFFSHORE WOULD MEAN LOWER QPF TOTALS OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AGAIN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED BACK UP IF IDA TAKES A CLOSER
TRACK TO THE ARKLAMISS.
DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...WILL MAINTAIN THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES IN THE HWO. THE
ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
THE WIND FORECAST DUE TO THE IDA TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC AS WELL AS A
CLOSER TRACK TO THE COAST WILL MEAN MUCH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ON
MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 15-20 MPH WINDS IN THE FORECAST AS THIS
SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE. MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT WILL KEEP IT
GOING FOR NOW. MAV LOWS LOOKED REASONABLE MON AND TUES MORNING BUT
DID BUMP HIGHS MON A TAD BASED ON A LITTLE LESS RAIN THAT IS
EXPECTED. SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK.
/BK/
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST RIDGE TO
BREAK DOWN QUICKLY TUESDAY WITH OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
RAINFALL ZIPPING BY TO THE EAST. ANY LINGERING RAINFALL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATIC AVERAGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL SET UP OVER THE PLAINS
NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS WOULD PLACE THE ARKLAMISS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE MODELS ARE VERY CHAOTIC WITH SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN
THIS PERIOD...SO IT SEEMS MOST REASONABLE TO ACCEPT THE LOW-END MEX
MOS POPS FOR NOW. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING AND TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIMITED. CAN IMAGINE THAT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL WILL NOT BE OUT OT THE
QUESTION IN THIS PATTERN AND THAT WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS WE GO
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...OCCSNL MVFR/IFR CONDS CAN BE XPCTD THIS MORNING AREAWIDE
DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE. HBG HAS FLIRTED WITH
VLIFR CONDS ALREADY THIS MORNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THIS AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE. VFR CONDS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP EARLY
MORNING WITH MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUD CVR INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. PRES GRAD WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND MAY SEE SOME
GUSTY ERLY WNDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA 18-22Z. WILL LIKELY SEE EAST
4-6KT WNDS OVERNIGHT. MORE MVFR/IFR CONDS PSBL TOMORROW MORNING
09-12Z. /BK/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BK/EC
000
FXUS64 KJAN 080431
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
...BREEZY AND WET FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST DISCUSSION WORDING UPDATED TO REFLECT IDA
INTENSIFICATION FROM TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE STATUS. IDA IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT TRACKS NWD ACROSS
THE GULF.
&&
.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY DATA THIS EVENING NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND
DEVELOPING SLY FLOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
THIS...INDICATING THAT TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST WITHOUT RAIN CHANCES
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS HURRICANE IDA LIFTS TOWARD THE SRN
GULF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...149 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009 THE FOCUS FOR THIS
FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF IDA AND HER INTERACTION
WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE WET PERIOD OF WEATHER WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT.
BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS...WE WILL SE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH CLR/MO
CLR CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL RUN A TAD WARMER THAN THIS PAST MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH A TAD MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...A SE RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AS WELL ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
GULF. SUN WILL BE NICE AS WELL...BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN PRETTY GOOD COME AFTN. GUID TEMPS WERE
FOLLOWED TONIGHT AND SUN.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AT ALL LEVELS OVER THE SUN NIGHT PERIOD
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
WX PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS THERE WILL BE IDA...ANOTHER WEAK
SFC LOW OVER THE W GULF AND LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. ALL THIS WILL
BECOME INTERTWINED ON MON INTO TUE AS WE SEE A UPPER DISTURBANCE
PUSH E ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IDA IS STEADILY GETTING
STRONGER TODAY AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND MAY REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE YUCATAN. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS IDA INTERACTS MORE WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE I
MENTIONED. SHE WILL ACTUALLY BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TAKES PLACE MON AFTN/NIGHT. THE OVERALL
OUTCOME ACROSS OUR AREA WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WAS
PREV EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A DEFORMATION AXIS OF DECENT RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA WHICH WILL EXTEND N-EASTWARD INTO THE
S/SE PORTION OF THE CWA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE "IDA" SFC CIRCULATION AND THE
LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED NE/N
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. RAINFALL
TYPE WILL BE OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY AS A SOLID SHIELD OF
STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL/SE CWA WILL
SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINS BUT NOT OF THE CONVECTIVE/HIGH RATE SORT.
ACTUALLY...THE MAIN REASON TO WORD THINGS HEAVY IS BECAUSE OF THE
EVENT TOTALS. AREAS ALONG AND SE/E OF THE TRACE SHOULD SEE A SOLID
1-3 INCHES WITH AREAS SE OF A BUDE TO MERIDIAN LINE SEEING 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ACCUMULATE OVER MULTIPLE HRS (8-16) AND
SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A FLOODING RISK AS RAINFALL RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT TAME. PONDING ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE COMMON DUE TO
THE STEADY NATURE OF THE RAIN AND FROM PURE ACCUMULATIONS.
THE LATEST MODEL GUID SUGGESTS THINGS WILL PROGRESS A BIT FASTER AND
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL SHIFT E OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. I HAVE TRENDED THE WX TO INDICATE THIS.
AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...GUID VALUES SEEM TO BE VERY GOOD AND
I HAVE FOLLOWED. LOOK FOR ABV NORMAL READINGS MON MORNING THROUGH
TUE. I ALSO ADJ LOW TEMPS DOWNWARD TO MATCH THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUID FOR WED-FRI MORNINGS. DRIER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO CONDITIONS. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR SKY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAY BREAK IN THE MORNING
WITH BRIEF OCCASIONS OF MVFR VSBYS FROM 4-6 MILES. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...CLEARING AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 14Z.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS. /19/03
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/19
03
000
FXUS64 KJAN 080337
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
149 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
...BREEZY AND WET FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...
.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY DATA THIS EVENING NO
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER
TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND
DEVELOPING SLY FLOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
THIS...INDICATING THAT TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST WITHOUT RAIN CHANCES
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROPICAL STORM IDA LIFTS TOWARD THE SRN
GULF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...149 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009 THE FOCUS FOR THIS
FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF IDA AND HER INTERACTION
WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE WET PERIOD OF WEATHER WHICH
LOOKS TO RESULT.
BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS...WE WILL SE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH CLR/MO
CLR CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL RUN A TAD WARMER THAN THIS PAST MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH A TAD MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...A SE RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AS WELL ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
GULF. SUN WILL BE NICE AS WELL...BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN PRETTY GOOD COME AFTN. GUID TEMPS WERE
FOLLOWED TONIGHT AND SUN.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AT ALL LEVELS OVER THE SUN NIGHT PERIOD
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
WX PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS THERE WILL BE IDA...ANOTHER WEAK
SFC LOW OVER THE W GULF AND LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. ALL THIS WILL
BECOME INTERTWINED ON MON INTO TUE AS WE SEE A UPPER DISTURBANCE
PUSH E ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IDA IS STEADILY GETTING
STRONGER TODAY AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND MAY REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE YUCATAN. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS IDA INTERACTS MORE WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE I
MENTIONED. SHE WILL ACTUALLY BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TAKES PLACE MON AFTN/NIGHT. THE OVERALL
OUTCOME ACROSS OUR AREA WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WAS
PREV EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A DEFORMATION AXIS OF DECENT RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA WHICH WILL EXTEND N-EASTWARD INTO THE
S/SE PORTION OF THE CWA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE "IDA" SFC CIRCULATION AND THE
LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED NE/N
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. RAINFALL
TYPE WILL BE OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY AS A SOLID SHIELD OF
STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL/SE CWA WILL
SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINS BUT NOT OF THE CONVECTIVE/HIGH RATE SORT.
ACTUALLY...THE MAIN REASON TO WORD THINGS HEAVY IS BECAUSE OF THE
EVENT TOTALS. AREAS ALONG AND SE/E OF THE TRACE SHOULD SEE A SOLID
1-3 INCHES WITH AREAS SE OF A BUDE TO MERIDIAN LINE SEEING 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ACCUMULATE OVER MULTIPLE HRS (8-16) AND
SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A FLOODING RISK AS RAINFALL RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT TAME. PONDING ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE COMMON DUE TO
THE STEADY NATURE OF THE RAIN AND FROM PURE ACCUMULATIONS.
THE LATEST MODEL GUID SUGGESTS THINGS WILL PROGRESS A BIT FASTER AND
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL SHIFT E OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. I HAVE TRENDED THE WX TO INDICATE THIS.
AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...GUID VALUES SEEM TO BE VERY GOOD AND
I HAVE FOLLOWED. LOOK FOR ABV NORMAL READINGS MON MORNING THROUGH
TUE. I ALSO ADJ LOW TEMPS DOWNWARD TO MATCH THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUID FOR WED-FRI MORNINGS. DRIER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO CONDITIONS. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR SKY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAY BREAK IN THE MORNING
WITH BRIEF OCCASIONS OF MVFR VSBYS FROM 4-6 MILES. FOG WILL
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE...CLEARING AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 14Z.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS. /19/03
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/19
03
000
FXUS64 KJAN 071949
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
149 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
...MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE BREEZY AND ON THE WET
SIDE...
.DISCUSSION...THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND THE
EVOLUTION OF IDA AND HER INTERACTION WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND THE WET PERIOD OF WEATHER WHICH LOOKS TO RESULT.
BEFORE THE RAIN RETURNS...WE WILL SE ONE MORE COOL NIGHT WITH CLR/MO
CLR CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL RUN A TAD WARMER THAN THIS PAST MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING ALONG WITH A TAD MORE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...A SE RETURN FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AS WELL ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE REGION FROM THE
GULF. SUN WILL BE NICE AS WELL...BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN PRETTY GOOD COME AFTN. GUID TEMPS WERE
FOLLOWED TONIGHT AND SUN.
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING AT ALL LEVELS OVER THE SUN NIGHT PERIOD
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WELL. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
WX PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS THERE WILL BE IDA...ANOTHER WEAK
SFC LOW OVER THE W GULF AND LOTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. ALL THIS WILL
BECOME INTERTWINED ON MON INTO TUE AS WE SEE A UPPER DISTURBANCE
PUSH E ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IDA IS STEADILY GETTING
STRONGER TODAY AND BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND MAY REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE YUCATAN. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS IDA INTERACTS MORE WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE I
MENTIONED. SHE WILL ACTUALLY BECOME MORE OF A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TAKES PLACE MON AFTN/NIGHT. THE OVERALL
OUTCOME ACROSS OUR AREA WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WAS
PREV EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A DEFORMATION AXIS OF DECENT RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA WHICH WILL EXTEND N-EASTWARD INTO THE
S/SE PORTION OF THE CWA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO THE "IDA" SFC CIRCULATION AND THE
LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WE SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED NE/N
WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. RAINFALL
TYPE WILL BE OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY AS A SOLID SHIELD OF
STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL/SE CWA WILL
SEE SOME HEAVIER RAINS BUT NOT OF THE CONVECTIVE/HIGH RATE SORT.
ACTUALLY...THE MAIN REASON TO WORD THINGS HEAVY IS BECAUSE OF THE
EVENT TOTALS. AREAS ALONG AND SE/E OF THE TRACE SHOULD SEE A SOLID
1-3 INCHES WITH AREAS SE OF A BUDE TO MERIDIAN LINE SEEING 2-4
INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ACCUMULATE OVER MULTIPLE HRS (8-16) AND
SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A FLOODING RISK AS RAINFALL RATES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT TAME. PONDING ACROSS LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE COMMON DUE TO
THE STEADY NATURE OF THE RAIN AND FROM PURE ACCUMULATIONS.
THE LATEST MODEL GUID SUGGESTS THINGS WILL PROGRESS A BIT FASTER AND
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL SHIFT E OF THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. I HAVE TRENDED THE WX TO INDICATE THIS.
AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...GUID VALUES SEEM TO BE VERY GOOD AND
I HAVE FOLLOWED. LOOK FOR ABV NORMAL READINGS MON MORNING THROUGH
TUE. I ALSO ADJ LOW TEMPS DOWNWARD TO MATCH THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GUID FOR WED-FRI MORNINGS. DRIER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST CLIMO TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO CONDITIONS. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
LATER BECOME CALM TO LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAY BREAK SUNDAY MORNING AT MOST SITES...
NAMELY KMEI AND KHBG. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...WHILE WINDS BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 47 72 57 68 / 0 0 31 85
MERIDIAN 43 74 55 70 / 0 0 19 85
VICKSBURG 49 73 57 69 / 0 0 37 75
HATTIESBURG 49 74 58 69 / 0 2 36 89
NATCHEZ 54 71 60 67 / 0 4 52 88
GREENVILLE 49 73 55 69 / 0 0 19 50
GREENWOOD 47 76 56 70 / 0 0 16 57
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
CME/19
000
FXUS64 KJAN 071608 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1008 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE ONLY ADJ THAT WERE
NEEDED WERE TO TWEAK HOURLY TEMPS/SFC DEWPTS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUN EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUN. /CME/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES TODAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELTA REGION...KGLH AND KGWO. THESE WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AT SUNSET WITH CALM TO LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE
AROUND DAY BREAK AT MOST SITES...NAMELY KMEI AND KHBG. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA SURGES NORTH.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID BUMP HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST. MAV LOWS FOR SUN
MORNING LOOKED GOOD ALTHOUGH DID LOWER A COUPLE SPOTS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY
MID 70S. MAV GUIDANCE WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
HERE AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO AT MOST SITES.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL REALLY OPEN THE GATE FOR GULF MOISTURE TO
INCREASE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
RAIN BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SRN STREAM S/WV INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MUCH WARMER MONDAY.
MAV GUIDANCE DEFINITELY LOOKED LOW HERE AND BUMPED LOWS INTO THE MID
50S NORTH/UPPER 50S SOUTH IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. /BK/
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT TROPICAL STORM IDA
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWEEP DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOC WITH "IDA" MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AS HAS
BEEN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF IDA SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE WETTER ECMWF BRINGS THE CENTER OF "IDA" FARTHER NORTH AND
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
STILL KEEP HEAVIER RAIN OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH FITS
BETTER WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK OF IDA. IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE RAISED GUIDANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY SE HALF OF THE AREA
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS UPCOMING
RAINFALL EVENT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP RAINFALL FROM BEING OVERLY HEAVY...BUT A LONG DURATION OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ALLOW TOTALS TO TOP THE TWO INCH MARK...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES HAPPEN TO BE HIGHEST (WELL ABOVE TWO IN/HR).
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY TUESDAY
WITH OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC RAINFALL ZIPPING BY TO THE EAST.
A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATIC AVERAGE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST ECMWF...THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE FORECAST. /EC/
AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES
DOMINATES THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT AND SRLY THIS MORNING
WITH SRLY WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTN. A FEW GUSTS TO 15KTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA 18-23Z. LGT ERLY WINDS XPCTD OVRNGT. LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...AND MAY ALLOW SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/CIGS TO DEVELOP IN SRN AREAS TOMORROW MORNING. /BK/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 77 47 75 57 / 0 0 0 25
MERIDIAN 76 40 74 56 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 77 49 76 57 / 0 0 0 24
HATTIESBURG 77 46 76 57 / 0 0 2 31
NATCHEZ 77 53 75 59 / 0 0 0 35
GREENVILLE 74 47 75 54 / 0 0 0 13
GREENWOOD 74 46 76 55 / 0 0 0 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
JAN
000
FXUS64 KJAN 071009
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA SURGES NORTH.
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH
A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT DID BUMP HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASING OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST. MAV LOWS FOR SUN
MORNING LOOKED GOOD ALTHOUGH DID LOWER A COUPLE SPOTS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY
MID 70S. MAV GUIDANCE WAS ON THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
HERE AND DID BUMP AFTERNOON HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO AT MOST SITES.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...WHICH WILL REALLY OPEN THE GATE FOR GULF MOISTURE TO
INCREASE OVER THE ARKLAMISS. GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
RAIN BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
MORNING AS THE SRN STREAM S/WV INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE ARKLAMISS AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM IDA. THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MUCH WARMER MONDAY.
MAV GUIDANCE DEFINITELY LOOKED LOW HERE AND BUMPED LOWS INTO THE MID
50S NORTH/UPPER 50S SOUTH IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. /BK/
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT TROPICAL STORM IDA
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWEEP DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOC WITH "IDA" MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE AS HAS
BEEN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF IDA SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE WETTER ECMWF BRINGS THE CENTER OF "IDA" FARTHER NORTH AND
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE GFS/GEFS
STILL KEEP HEAVIER RAIN OVER SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH FITS
BETTER WITH THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK OF IDA. IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS HAVE RAISED GUIDANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY SE HALF OF THE AREA
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THIS UPCOMING
RAINFALL EVENT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP RAINFALL FROM BEING OVERLY HEAVY...BUT A LONG DURATION OF
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ALLOW TOTALS TO TOP THE TWO INCH MARK...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES HAPPEN TO BE HIGHEST (WELL ABOVE TWO IN/HR).
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN QUICKLY TUESDAY
WITH OUR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOC RAINFALL ZIPPING BY TO THE EAST.
A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATIC AVERAGE.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATEST ECMWF...THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. HAVE GONE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW IN THE FORECAST. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY XPCTD THRU THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES
DOMINATES THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT AND SRLY THIS MORNING
WITH SRLY WINDS INCREASING THIS AFTN. A FEW GUSTS TO 15KTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA 18-23Z. LGT ERLY WINDS XPCTD OVRNGT. LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY...AND MAY ALLOW SOME MVFR/IFR
FOG/CIGS TO DEVELOP IN SRN AREAS TOMORROW MORNING. /BK/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BK/EC
| 
