[top]
000
FXUS65 KTFX 090001
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
500 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRY DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE WEAKER FLOW ALOFT
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE INTO WEAKER DOWNSLOPE WINDS
OVER THE PLAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SOME MODELS IMPLY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE OTHERS
HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST HAD
CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE IN LIGHT OF THE
MODELS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. BLANK
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIP WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE TROF
BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT AND TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY BUT BE MOVING EAST OF THE ZONES AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY. BY FRIDAY...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND BRISK WINDS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TO THE
WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE BROAD AND WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL
DIFFERENT FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD ABOVE NORMALS BUT TREND DOWNWARDS TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
AIRMASS BY LATE FRIDAY AND TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN...BUT THIS
WARMING PERIOD WILL BE SHORT TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ZELZER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...UNLESS
OTHERWISE NOTED BELOW. A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIDESPREAD
SNOW...AND SUBSEQUENT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN MONTANA NORTH OF KBTM OVERNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD ONLY BRING MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA. BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH 03Z AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COULSTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 30 55 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 28 51 31 53 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 26 54 30 52 / 0 0 0 10
BZN 22 58 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 13 46 22 44 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 21 52 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 26 53 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 24 53 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...ZELZER/GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
[top]
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 082212
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
GUSTY WINDS KICKED IN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DRIVEN BY MIXING
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS WEAK. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY BY SUNSET AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WAS BRINGING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE WEST FACING SLOPES. SOME
INSTABILITY WAS PRODUCING A FEW WEAK SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THIS EVENING. AS THE INSTABILITY DECREASES THIS EVENING...THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE.
RIDGING TO SET IN FOR MONDAY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AGAIN AND SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO
TODAYS HIGHS WITH THE DAY STARTING OUT BELOW FREEZING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND HOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE DEEPENS TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND HAVE KEPT THE THEME OF
LOW POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE PLAINS
DRY AND PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME
ON THE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE ACTUALLY COOLED FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TUESDAY INTO THE LOWER 50S. WILL KEEP FORECAST IN TACT BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS CLOUDS RUSHING IN EARLY IN THE DAY COULD
LIMIT HEATING. SHORTWAVE INFLUX REMAINS WEAK TUESDAY NIGHT SO
KEPT POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL KICK UP OVER THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER
VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LEE TROUGHING. GRADIENTS RELAX
PRETTY QUICK TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OFF THE SLOPES. KEPT
WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE VALLEYS AS GRADIENT DOES
NOT LOOKS OVERLY STRONG...AND IT HAS A BIT TOO MUCH OF A NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTATION FOR STRONG WINDS. HUMPHREY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN
VARYING IN THEIR SOLUTIONS A LOT...BUT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
THERE BEING A SYSTEM OF SOME KIND. SO POPS WERE RAISED LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH CALL FOR PRECIPITATION
AND NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY SO COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
IF FUTURE GFS RUNS CONTINUE WITH CURRENT TREND...EXPECT TO RAISE
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK HAVE KEPT POPS UP A
LITTLE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN CASE THE MODELS DECIDE TO SLOW THE
CLOSED 500MB LOW. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SETS UP WEST-S0UTHWEST FLOW FOR OUR
AREA. LEACH/ARTHUR
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WHICH COULD CREATE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
AFTER SUNSET. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT OVER KLVM
AGAIN MON AFTERNOON. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/054 032/061 035/057 034/049 028/041 027/046 029/046
00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 34/O 22/O 22/W
LVM 026/053 035/058 033/051 026/043 021/039 022/044 024/044
00/N 00/N 02/W 32/W 43/S 22/S 22/J
HDN 028/056 027/063 031/060 030/052 026/045 026/050 028/048
00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 34/O 22/R 22/W
MLS 028/054 029/063 031/058 031/051 027/045 028/050 030/049
00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 33/O 22/R 22/W
4BQ 029/055 030/062 033/058 031/052 025/044 025/049 028/044
00/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 23/O 32/R 22/W
BHK 026/056 029/063 032/055 029/050 026/043 026/048 029/042
00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/O 22/R 22/J
SHR 024/055 025/062 029/059 029/050 022/043 021/048 024/044
00/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 34/O 22/O 22/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
[top]
000
FXUS65 KGGW 082132
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
232 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHORT TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING
WHICH IS GOING TO CHANGE BY MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROFF/LOW
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN RESPONSE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROFF SETS UP OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. SURFACE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ALLOWS THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THERMAL RIDGING WILL
TAKES PLACE BEHIND A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 6 DEGREE CELSIUS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...WHICH WILL HELP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. THINGS WILL CONTINUE REMAIN DRY AND THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WAA WILL HELP
PUSH 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 DEGREES CELSIUS
ACROSS NEMONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION AND THINGS WILL STILL
REMAIN DRY. ALSO EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CROSS
THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. SINCE THE MODEL SOUNDING ARE SHOWING
A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OF THE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONT. RSMITH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN. ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WED A WEAK BUT DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MT AS ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. BY WED NIGHT/THU SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SPLIT WITH SOUTHERN PORTION DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH DEFORMATION AXIS NORTH INTO CANADA WITH A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS BUT TENDING TO DIG ENERGY
SOUTH INITIALLY INTO NEVADA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
APPEAR TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTN AS TYPICAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN SE MT/NE WY. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS CONSISTENT ON LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT POPS IN SOUTH. ECMWF
TENDING TO BE COLDER THAN GFS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LITTLE WARMER
APPROACH ON TEMPS IN THE 40S WITH THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID
540S. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ECMWF STARTS TO DIVERGE FROM GFS BY
LIFTING UPPER LOW INTO NE MT AND SPLITTING ENERGY FAR OFF
CALIFORNIA COAST. GFS KEEPS MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND STRONGER UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE LOW INTO THE DAKOTAS. HAVE KEPT WITH THE GFS
PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR NOW WHICH LINES UP BETTER WITH ENSEMBLES SO
ONLY LIGHT PCPN INTO SE ZONES ON SAT. ALSO DROPPED MAX/MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WITH COLDER AIR DRAWN INTO NORTHERN ZONES. SLA
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BY 18Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 082132
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
232 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRY DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE WEAKER FLOW ALOFT
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE INTO WEAKER DOWNSLOPE WINDS
OVER THE PLAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SOME MODELS IMPLY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE OTHERS
HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST HAD
CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE IN LIGHT OF THE
MODELS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. BLANK
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIP WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE TROF
BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT AND TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY BUT BE MOVING EAST OF THE ZONES AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY. BY FRIDAY...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND BRISK WINDS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TO THE
WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE BROAD AND WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL
DIFFERENT FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD ABOVE NORMALS BUT TREND DOWNWARDS TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
AIRMASS BY LATE FRIDAY AND TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN...BUT THIS
WARMING PERIOD WILL BE SHORT TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ZELZER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME
DOWN SOME FROM RECENT HIGHS BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRISK WEST
FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP THE AIRMASS UNSETTLED. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THESE WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE ROCKIES AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. STRONG AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THERE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SHOULD BE
EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 30 55 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 28 51 31 53 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 26 54 30 52 / 0 0 0 10
BZN 22 58 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 13 46 22 44 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 21 52 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 26 53 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 24 53 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...GUSTAFSON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 082132
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
232 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHORT TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THIS EVENING
WHICH IS GOING TO CHANGE BY MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROFF/LOW
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. IN RESPONSE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROFF SETS UP OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE. SURFACE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
ALLOWS THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THERMAL RIDGING WILL
TAKES PLACE BEHIND A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 6 DEGREE CELSIUS ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA...WHICH WILL HELP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S. THINGS WILL CONTINUE REMAIN DRY AND THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND WAA WILL HELP
PUSH 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 DEGREES CELSIUS
ACROSS NEMONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION AND THINGS WILL STILL
REMAIN DRY. ALSO EXPECT MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SINCE THE WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CROSS
THE REGION AT THE SAME TIME. SINCE THE MODEL SOUNDING ARE SHOWING
A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY OF THE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONT. RSMITH
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN. ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WED A WEAK BUT DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHERN MT AS ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. BY WED NIGHT/THU SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SPLIT WITH SOUTHERN PORTION DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN
WITH DEFORMATION AXIS NORTH INTO CANADA WITH A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS BUT TENDING TO DIG ENERGY
SOUTH INITIALLY INTO NEVADA. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
APPEAR TO STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTN AS TYPICAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN SE MT/NE WY. BOTH ECMWF
AND GFS CONSISTENT ON LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES THU
NIGHT AND FRIDAY SO HAVE INTRODUCED LIGHT POPS IN SOUTH. ECMWF
TENDING TO BE COLDER THAN GFS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LITTLE WARMER
APPROACH ON TEMPS IN THE 40S WITH THICKNESS VALUES IN THE MID
540S. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ECMWF STARTS TO DIVERGE FROM GFS BY
LIFTING UPPER LOW INTO NE MT AND SPLITTING ENERGY FAR OFF
CALIFORNIA COAST. GFS KEEPS MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND STRONGER UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE LOW INTO THE DAKOTAS. HAVE KEPT WITH THE GFS
PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR NOW WHICH LINES UP BETTER WITH ENSEMBLES SO
ONLY LIGHT PCPN INTO SE ZONES ON SAT. ALSO DROPPED MAX/MIN TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WITH COLDER AIR DRAWN INTO NORTHERN ZONES. SLA
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BY 18Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 082132
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
232 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRY DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. THE WEAKER FLOW ALOFT
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE INTO WEAKER DOWNSLOPE WINDS
OVER THE PLAINS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH AN INCREASE IN AT LEAST HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THEY DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. SOME MODELS IMPLY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE OTHERS
HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST HAD
CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT ON
TUESDAY AND THIS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE IN LIGHT OF THE
MODELS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. BLANK
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIP WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE TROF
BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT AND TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY BUT BE MOVING EAST OF THE ZONES AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY. BY FRIDAY...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND BRISK WINDS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TO THE
WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE BROAD AND WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL
DIFFERENT FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD ABOVE NORMALS BUT TREND DOWNWARDS TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
AIRMASS BY LATE FRIDAY AND TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN...BUT THIS
WARMING PERIOD WILL BE SHORT TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ZELZER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME
DOWN SOME FROM RECENT HIGHS BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRISK WEST
FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP THE AIRMASS UNSETTLED. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THESE WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE ROCKIES AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. STRONG AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THERE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SHOULD BE
EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 30 55 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 28 51 31 53 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 26 54 30 52 / 0 0 0 10
BZN 22 58 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 13 46 22 44 / 0 0 0 10
DLN 21 52 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 26 53 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 24 53 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...GUSTAFSON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
[top]
000
FXUS65 KMSO 082126
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
226 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE OF ENERGY IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE THROUGH
NORTHEAST OREGON. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE
TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHWEST MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND OVER LOLO AND MARIAS PASS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS MOST ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
U.S. AND EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TUESDAY.
TUESDAY...A WEAK WAVE OF ENERGY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS FLOW RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BROUGHT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST STARTING WEDNESDAY. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GUIDANCE EXISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOWING OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...BUT SPECIFIC FEATURES MAKE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT AND IMPACT VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. THE LATEST
GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHILE THE PREVIOUS RUN DEPICTED AN
OPEN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF AN OPEN
WAVE WITH SIMILAR TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE LATEST RUN
DIGS THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION SENDING MOST OF THE MOISTURE
AND ENERGY WITH IT. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE HAD SUCH LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS THE MAIN CHANGES MADE WERE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND LINGER PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. IF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE HOLD WITH THEIR CURRENT SOLUTIONS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
NEED TO BE INCREASED IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND EAST CENTRAL IDAHO
FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AN INCOMING WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING. KGPI WILL BE
THE TERMINAL MOST AFFECTED BY THESE SHOWERS PRODUCING POSSIBLE
SHORT DURATIONS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPN
LONG TERM....KITSMILLER
AVIATION...RPN
000
FXUS65 KTFX 081806
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. 9 AM TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO
RAISED SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT BY NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES.
LOWERED SKY COVER FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO LOWERED SKY
COVER IN SOME AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. BLANK
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL COME
DOWN SOME FROM RECENT HIGHS BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRISK WEST
FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP THE AIRMASS UNSETTLED. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THESE WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE ROCKIES AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. STRONG AND GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS THERE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION SHOULD BE
EXPECTED OVER THE ROCKIES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 426 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS THROUGH MID-MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THREE
INCHES...HOWEVER GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSH EASTWARD...PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE ALONG THE DIVIDE AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE HI-LINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN...HOWEVER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. WINDS AND CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAK ENERGY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH TUESDAY SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THAT
AREA...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MLS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIP WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE TROF
BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT AND TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY BUT BE MOVING EAST OF THE ZONES AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY. BY FRIDAY...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND BRISK WINDS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TO THE
WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE BROAD AND WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL
DIFFERENT FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD ABOVE NORMALS BUT TREND DOWNWARDS TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
AIRMASS BY LATE FRIDAY AND TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN...BUT THIS
WARMING PERIOD WILL BE SHORT TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ZELZER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 30 54 34 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 45 30 51 31 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 52 27 50 30 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 54 22 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 38 13 41 22 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 46 21 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 53 25 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 47 24 52 28 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...GUSTAFSON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 081635
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
935 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. 9 AM TEMPERATURES WERE
RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES IN A FEW LOCATIONS SO
RAISED SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT BY NO MORE THAN 5 DEGREES.
LOWERED SKY COVER FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO LOWERED SKY
COVER IN SOME AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. BLANK
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1123Z.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRISK WEST FLOW ALOFT AND
KEEP THE AIRMASS UNSETTLED. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THESE WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 426 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009/
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS THROUGH MID-MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THREE
INCHES...HOWEVER GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSH EASTWARD...PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE ALONG THE DIVIDE AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE HI-LINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN...HOWEVER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. WINDS AND CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAK ENERGY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH TUESDAY SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THAT
AREA...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MLS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIP WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE TROF
BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT AND TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY BUT BE MOVING EAST OF THE ZONES AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY. BY FRIDAY...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND BRISK WINDS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TO THE
WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE BROAD AND WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL
DIFFERENT FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD ABOVE NORMALS BUT TREND DOWNWARDS TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
AIRMASS BY LATE FRIDAY AND TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN...BUT THIS
WARMING PERIOD WILL BE SHORT TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ZELZER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 30 54 34 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 45 30 51 31 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 52 27 50 30 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 54 22 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 38 13 41 22 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 46 21 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 53 25 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 47 24 52 28 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...GUSTAFSON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 081616
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
916 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
WE HAVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...LOCATED WEST OF GLASGOW THIS MORNING.
A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF NEMONT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL
VERY DRY AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY. LOOKING TO THE WEST THIS
MORNING YOU CAN SEE VIRGA FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE CLOUDS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH BUT AFTER CALLING SPOTTERS NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY
WAS REACHING THE GROUND. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
REACH THE GROUND WOULD PROBABLY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES
AND NOT EVEN AMOUNT TO A TRACE OF RAINFALL. WIND STILL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 18Z TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE WEST AND
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. RSMITH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST STILL REMAINS
BENIGN. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN THAN
THE NAM AS IT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. A ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN FAVORS THE GFS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. NO CATEGORY POPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS 850 MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH ONLY 40 RH MOVING THROUGH. 850 WINDS REACH 30 KNOT
WITH THE FRONT AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
AREA. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SET UP AGAIN AS 10
DEGREE CELSIUS 850 TEMPERATURES SURGE NORTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING 60 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES...NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SHALLENBERGER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT EARLY ON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE ECMWF... GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA DURING
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEY DIFFER ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS
POINT.
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY
SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BY 18Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 081557
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
857 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING. A FEW WEAK ECHOES WERE DRIFTING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER DUE TO THIS FORCING. CALLS TO THE
AREA REPORT ONLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WILL LINGER LOW POPS THROUGH
THE MORNING AS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A FEW SPRINKLES
THROUGH NOON. THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY AND QUIET WITH NOT
MUCH WIND EXPECTED. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT BASIN
AND PRODUCES VERY LIGHT GRADIENTS TODAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD
AND WILL NOT ADJUST. READINGS CURRENTLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND THIS PACE SHOULD ALLOW FORECAST HIGHS TO BE
ACHIEVED. NO CHANGES. HUMPHREY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
INITIAL PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...IE TUESDAY...SHAPING UP TO
BE WARM AND DRY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS.
MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS TROFFING
WHICH WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND AFFECT OUR AREA
SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. MODELS TO THIS POINT
HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE
AND DOWNSLOPEY WAVE FOR US...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN OVER
OUR WESTERN MTNS...BUT A COUPLE TRENDS WITH THE 00Z RUNS SHOULD
BE NOTED. ECMWF AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE AMPLIFYING OF
THE TROF OVER THE PAC NW WED NITE INTO THU. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN. IF A DEEPENING TREND TURNS OUT
TO BE ACCURATE...OUR CHANCES OF PCPN OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE
ENHANCED BY THU/FRI. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW THOUGH
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE IN MIND...AND
KEEP POPS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BROADBRUSHED AT SLIGHT CHANCE
WED NITE THROUGH FRI...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING TIMING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME WERE TO PUSH BACK POPS FOR THE PLAINS TO
BEGIN WED NITE...AND RAISE MTN POPS A NOTCH DURING THESE PERIODS.
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
TROF...SO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR
OUR WESTERN MTNS FOR SOME SNOWFALL. TOUGH TO FIGURE WHAT WILL
HAPPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT MODELS SUGGEST MORE PACIFIC ENERGY SO
WILL KEEP WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE RAISED WED HIGHS/LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS THERMAL
LOW REMAINS IN SE MONTANA THROUGH THEN. THIS AFTER A VERY MILD TUE
WHEN WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS GET INTO THE 60S. TEMPS SHOULD COOL
TOWARD NORMAL THEREAFTER WITH THE EXPECTED TROFFING...BUT IF FLOW
REMAINS DOWNSLOPEY TEMPS COULD REMAIN A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID NOVEMBER AVERAGES. STILL NO SURGES OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR
IN SIGHT. JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH MON MORNING. LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS THIS MORNING DUE TO A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT GUSTY W TO SW WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT OVER KLVM AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA...CRAZY AND LITTLE BELT
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 029/054 032/061 034/057 034/049 028/044 029/046
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 052 026/053 035/058 030/051 026/043 021/042 024/044
0/N 00/U 00/N 02/W 32/W 22/J 22/W
HDN 056 028/056 027/063 031/060 030/052 026/048 028/050
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 055 028/054 029/063 032/058 031/051 027/048 030/050
1/M 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
4BQ 056 029/055 030/062 032/058 031/052 025/047 027/049
2/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
BHK 055 026/056 029/063 032/055 029/049 026/046 028/048
2/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
SHR 052 024/055 025/062 028/059 029/050 022/046 023/048
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 081511
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
811 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...ALLOWED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE.
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. WHAT IS LEFT
BEHIND IS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ANTICIPATED. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTHWEST MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
LIKELY IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...FINAL IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COOL
FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE
RETURNS ON SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE ALREADY DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS HOUR BEHIND
THESE FEATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR NORTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORNING PACKAGE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE THE GLACIER NATIONAL PARK WARNING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. STRONG
RIDGETOP WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP OROGRAPHIC
SNOW GOING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER ONE MORE UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTH THAT A COLD NIGHT
ON TAP WITH VALLEY INVERSIONS DEVELOPING.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET
WITH COOL CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE VALLEYS AS INVERSIONS WILL
KEEP MANY LOCATIONS FROM MIXING. MONDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA ON SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING SHOULD KEEP MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT
MORE MILD.
A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN IMPULSE BRINGING
SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPN
LONG TERM....MEAD
AVIATION...RPN
000
FXUS65 KTFX 081126
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
426 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS THROUGH MID-MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THREE
INCHES...HOWEVER GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSH EASTWARD...PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE ALONG THE DIVIDE AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE HI-LINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN...HOWEVER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. WINDS AND CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAK ENERGY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH TUESDAY SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THAT
AREA...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MLS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIP WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE TROF
BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT AND TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY BUT BE MOVING EAST OF THE ZONES AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY. BY FRIDAY...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND BRISK WINDS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TO THE
WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE BROAD AND WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL
DIFFERENT FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD ABOVE NORMALS BUT TREND DOWNWARDS TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
AIRMASS BY LATE FRIDAY AND TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN...BUT THIS
WARMING PERIOD WILL BE SHORT TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ZELZER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1123Z.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH BRISK WEST FLOW ALOFT AND
KEEP THE AIRMASS UNSETTLED. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ALONG THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHERE THESE WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. STRONG AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 48 30 54 34 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 45 30 51 31 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 48 27 50 30 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 51 22 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 37 13 41 22 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 46 21 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 50 25 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 47 24 52 28 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 081100
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
400 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS THROUGH MID-MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS
ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW THREE
INCHES...HOWEVER GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSH EASTWARD...PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE ALONG THE DIVIDE AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO
LIMIT PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGES. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE HI-LINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN...HOWEVER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAK ENERGY MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE DIVIDE THROUGH TUESDAY SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
THAT AREA...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MLS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THE ZONES WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF
MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MOST PRECIP WILL BE
RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE TROF
BROADENS OVER THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT AND TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE TROF WILL
MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY BUT BE MOVING EAST OF THE ZONES AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY. BY FRIDAY...A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES AND BRISK WINDS WILL
AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS. TO THE
WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME QUITE BROAD AND WILL BE COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL
DIFFERENT FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME
ELEVATED POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD ABOVE NORMALS BUT TREND DOWNWARDS TO NEAR NORMALS BY FRIDAY.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND FOR THE
AIRMASS BY LATE FRIDAY AND TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN...BUT THIS
WARMING PERIOD WILL BE SHORT TEMPS WILL DROP AGAIN ON SUNDAY. ZELZER
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY...UNLESS
NOTED OTHERWISE BELOW. THE STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME
SHOWERS MAY REACH VALLEY FLOORS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THERE. THE FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE PLAINS AREAS...BUT THE
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THEM MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TEMPORARILY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 14Z...INCREASING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE ROCKIES AND UP TO 35 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. COULSTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 48 30 54 34 / 10 0 0 0
CTB 45 30 51 31 / 10 0 0 0
HLN 48 27 50 30 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 51 22 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
WEY 37 13 41 22 / 10 0 0 0
DLN 46 21 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 50 25 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
LWT 47 24 52 28 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 081005
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
305 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
MARGINALLY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN
THE LOWER LEVELS BUT LAPSE RATES ARE SUCH IT SEEMS WORTH SOME VERY
LOW POPS IN THE EAST AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO START THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE ON
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING MONDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS IN PLACE IN THE WEST DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IDAHO. WINDS IN THE LIVINGSTON AREA WILL
REMAIN BRISK THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WILL BRING UP THE
WINDS IN THE WEST AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
INITIAL PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...IE TUESDAY...SHAPING UP TO
BE WARM AND DRY UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY HIGH HEIGHTS.
MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS TROFFING
WHICH WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND AFFECT OUR AREA
SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD. MODELS TO THIS POINT
HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE
AND DOWNSLOPEY WAVE FOR US...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN OVER
OUR WESTERN MTNS...BUT A COUPLE TRENDS WITH THE 00Z RUNS SHOULD
BE NOTED. ECMWF AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE AMPLIFYING OF
THE TROF OVER THE PAC NW WED NITE INTO THU. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN. IF A DEEPENING TREND TURNS OUT
TO BE ACCURATE...OUR CHANCES OF PCPN OVER THE PLAINS COULD BE
ENHANCED BY THU/FRI. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW THOUGH
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE IN MIND...AND
KEEP POPS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BROADBRUSHED AT SLIGHT CHANCE
WED NITE THROUGH FRI...WITH THE MAIN ISSUE BEING TIMING. ONLY
CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME WERE TO PUSH BACK POPS FOR THE PLAINS TO
BEGIN WED NITE...AND RAISE MTN POPS A NOTCH DURING THESE PERIODS.
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
TROF...SO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR
OUR WESTERN MTNS FOR SOME SNOWFALL. TOUGH TO FIGURE WHAT WILL
HAPPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT MODELS SUGGEST MORE PACIFIC ENERGY SO
WILL KEEP WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE RAISED WED HIGHS/LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS THERMAL
LOW REMAINS IN SE MONTANA THROUGH THEN. THIS AFTER A VERY MILD TUE
WHEN WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS GET INTO THE 60S. TEMPS SHOULD COOL
TOWARD NORMAL THEREAFTER WITH THE EXPECTED TROFFING...BUT IF FLOW
REMAINS DOWNSLOPEY TEMPS COULD REMAIN A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF
MID NOVEMBER AVERAGES. STILL NO SURGES OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR
IN SIGHT.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND LOCAL OBSCURATIONS TO THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKA AND CRAZY
MOUNTAINS TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MAINLY IN EASTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING. A SOMEWHAT GUSTY W-NW
WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 18Z. EXPECT GUSTS OF 15-25
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASED WINDS AFTER SUNSET. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 029/054 032/061 034/057 034/049 028/044 029/046
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 052 026/053 035/058 030/051 026/043 021/042 024/044
0/N 00/U 00/N 02/W 32/W 22/J 22/W
HDN 056 028/056 027/063 031/060 030/052 026/048 028/050
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 055 028/054 029/063 032/058 031/051 027/048 030/050
1/M 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
4BQ 056 029/055 030/062 032/058 031/052 025/047 027/049
2/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
BHK 055 026/056 029/063 032/055 029/049 026/046 028/048
2/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
SHR 052 024/055 025/062 028/059 029/050 022/046 023/048
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 080959
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
259 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...FINAL IMPRESSIVE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COOL
FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. THE
RETURNS ON SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE ALREADY DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS HOUR BEHIND
THESE FEATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...WILL CANCEL THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR NORTHWEST MONTANA WITH MORNING PACKAGE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE THE GLACIER NATIONAL PARK WARNING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. STRONG
RIDGETOP WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP OROGRAPHIC
SNOW GOING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER ONE MORE UPPER WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THIS WAVE WILL KEEP A
THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT ENOUGH CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTH THAT A COLD NIGHT
ON TAP WITH VALLEY INVERSIONS DEVELOPING.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET
WITH COOL CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE VALLEYS AS INVERSIONS WILL
KEEP MANY LOCATIONS FROM MIXING. MONDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST AS MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA ON SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SOME MIXING SHOULD KEEP MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT
MORE MILD.
A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN IMPULSE BRINGING
SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND EXITING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA TODAY. BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION BEING MOST PREVALENT. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DRYING CONDITIONS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KGPI WILL EXPERIENCE
THE BIGGEST IMPACT WITH LOWERED CEILINGS THROUGH 08/18Z...THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. REMAINING AIRFIELDS WILL SEE GENERALLY
PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACTS THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING ABOVE 4500 FEET
FOR WEST GLACIER REGION.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MEAD
LONG TERM....PALLISTER
000
FXUS65 KGGW 080947
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
247 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST STILL REMAINS BENIGN. THE GFS SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN THAN THE NAM AS IT IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS. A ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FAVORS THE GFS. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NO CATEGORY POPS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS 850 MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH ONLY 40 RH
MOVING THROUGH. 850 WINDS REACH 30 KNOT WITH THE FRONT AND THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FOR TODAY.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
AREA. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SET UP AGAIN AS 10
DEGREE CELSIUS 850 TEMPERATURES SURGE NORTH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING 60 DEGREES IN SOME PLACES...NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SHALLENBERGER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT EARLY ON. SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE ECMWF... GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA DURING
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEY DIFFER ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS
POINT.
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. IT LOOKS LIKE A DRY
SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BY 18Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 080554
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1050 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TONIGHT. WIND HAS DIMINISHED
FOR THE TIME BEING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT
THEM TO INCREASE AGAIN NEAR MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE ROCKIES WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THESE STRONGER GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA. EDGED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA TO ADDRESS RELATIVELY
RAPID COOLING OCCURRING UNDER DIMINISHED WIND. INCREASED
CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA BASED ON CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ALSO INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG WESTERN AND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AS RADAR
PICKING UP SOME SHOWERS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND OVER ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0550Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MONDAY...UNLESS
NOTED OTHERWISE BELOW. THE STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME
SHOWERS MAY REACH VALLEY FLOORS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE THERE. THE FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE PLAINS AREAS...BUT THE
CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THEM MOSTLY DRY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TEMPORARILY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 06Z
AND 14Z...INCREASING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE ROCKIES AND UP TO 35 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
EFFECT DOWNSLOPE WILL HAVE ON THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
PLAINS. MODELS STILL TEND TO BE DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TO CHANGE THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY. ANOTHER
EFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME OVER EASTERN
GLACIER COUNTY BUT STILL PLAN TO CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN
THAT AREA UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. BLANK
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO
FALL AS COOLER AIR SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OUR NEXT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER OVERALL PROGRESSION SEEMS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DECENT DYNAMICS WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT THE EC BEGINS TO SPLIT THE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA MTNS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR THAT MAY LEAD TO VALLEY RAIN
AND SNOW AND ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO KEPT POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MLS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 30 49 30 55 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 31 47 30 52 / 10 10 0 0
HLN 30 48 27 53 / 0 10 0 0
BZN 26 52 22 57 / 10 10 0 0
WEY 21 37 14 43 / 30 10 0 0
DLN 24 46 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 29 52 25 54 / 10 10 0 0
LWT 26 47 24 53 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK/LOSS
LONG TERM...SYNER/GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 080422
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
922 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TONIGHT. WIND HAS DIMINISHED
FOR THE TIME BEING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT
THEM TO INCREASE AGAIN NEAR MIDNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE ROCKIES WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER...THESE STRONGER GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE WIDESPREAD OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA. EDGED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER NORTHERN HALF OF CWA TO ADDRESS RELATIVELY
RAPID COOLING OCCURRING UNDER DIMINISHED WIND. INCREASED
CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA BASED ON CLOUD
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ALSO INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG WESTERN AND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AS RADAR
PICKING UP SOME SHOWERS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND OVER ROCKIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE
BELOW. THE STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH VALLEY FLOORS IN SOUTHWEST
MONTANA (INCLUDING KHLN AND KBZN...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE THERE). THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE PLAINS AREAS...BUT THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP THEM DRY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TEMPORARILY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 05Z AND 12Z...INCREASING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND UP TO 35
KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
EFFECT DOWNSLOPE WILL HAVE ON THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
PLAINS. MODELS STILL TEND TO BE DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TO CHANGE THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY. ANOTHER
EFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME OVER EASTERN
GLACIER COUNTY BUT STILL PLAN TO CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN
THAT AREA UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. BLANK
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO
FALL AS COOLER AIR SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OUR NEXT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER OVERALL PROGRESSION SEEMS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DECENT DYNAMICS WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT THE EC BEGINS TO SPLIT THE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA MTNS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR THAT MAY LEAD TO VALLEY RAIN
AND SNOW AND ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO KEPT POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MLS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 30 49 30 55 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 31 47 30 52 / 10 10 0 0
HLN 30 48 27 53 / 0 10 0 0
BZN 26 52 22 57 / 10 10 0 0
WEY 21 37 14 43 / 30 10 0 0
DLN 24 46 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 29 52 25 54 / 10 10 0 0
LWT 26 47 24 53 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOSS
LONG TERM...SYNER
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 080404
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
904 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT...
FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...00Z KGGW SOUNDING
SHOWING 100 KT JET. ALTHOUGH THE LIFTED INDEX WAS 2...VERY FEW
CLOUDS IN THE DRY AIRMASS THAT IS OVER OUR AREA. AIRMASS IS ABOUT
THE SAME AS LAST EVE...BUT WITH QUICKER DE-COUPLING OF WINDS OFF
SURFACE...AND LOWER DEW POINTS...EXPECT MOST LOWS TO BE A LITTLE
COLDER TONIGHT. ADJUSTED LOWS...SKY COVER...WINDS ALL JUST A
LITTLE. SIMONSEN
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND DOWN SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY...WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THESE SHORTWAVES WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PLUS OUR OWN SOUNDING
WAS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY MID
AND HIGH LEVEL SO EXPECT THE SKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE.
THE BREEZE WIND OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT DUE TO SURFACE BASED NOCTURNAL INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS INVERSION WILL DISAPPEAR AFTER 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING
AND EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP AFTER 11 AM ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS THIS WAVE PASSES THE STRONGER WINDS WILL HAVE
A CHANCE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN NOT A CERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO DISAGREE. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL ALSO FORCE A LITTLE MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE
MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER AND LESS AFTERNOON WIND. RSMITH
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AROUND WEDNESDAY...WITH VARYING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE MODELS MORE CHAOTIC IN HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
EBERT
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE MODELS STILL ARE SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT BASED ON THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SINCE THEN THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
00Z RUNS. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A S/W RIDGE EXITING
THE REGION AND TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE EC WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT. POPS WERE PUT IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES ON THURSDAY AS IT
APPEARS THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM THE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE
ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED. THE LOW THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MONTANA SEEMS TO UNDERGO SOME LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND DEVELOPS INTO
QUITE A STRONG SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY THE MODELS WILL
MODIFY THIS IN LATER RUNS BUT AT THIS POINT...THIS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO LOOK AFTER. SHALLENBERGER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WEST WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRIEFLY STRONGER
GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAE
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 080353
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
853 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE AS FAR AS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS CONCERNED.
PRETTY FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN 100 AND 110 KNOTS
AT 250 MB...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE HINTING AT A SMALL IMPULSE OF
ENERGY SKIRTING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THIS ENERGY
TO TAP. AS OF LATE THIS EVENING IR IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING SOME
CLOUDINESS IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AS WELL AS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONES...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVERAGE SLIGHTLY
IN THE WEST. FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...LOOKING TO KEEP THINGS
COOL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. TOOK LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHILE WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY CALM THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
SINGER
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 245 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/
TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK
WAVE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. MODELS STILL PROGGING A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW TO
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
IDAHO. ALTHOUGH RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY POPPING UP ACROSS
BIG HORN AND SOUTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT POP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MAYBE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY & MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD BOTH DAYS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN
FOCUS WAS ON THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO I BUMPED UP TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES. DOWN SLOPE
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST WILL DRY THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE COMING OFF
THE MOUNTAINS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AND KEEP THE WEST FROM
WARMING UP TOO MUCH. THIS DOWN SLOPE APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN
RECENT EVENTS. EVEN WITH THE DOWN SLOPE AND DRY LOW LAYERS THERE IS
SOME GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH DECENT
MOISTURE. VIRGA IS MOST LIKELY BUT MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SETTLE DOWN WITH A
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY GOOD WEATHER...HOWEVER UPSTREAM LOW COULD EASILY MAKE
THE RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE DIRTY. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FROM
LAST SHIFT...LEFT POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. IF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN RECOMMEND DROPPING POPS AND
RAISING TEMPS. LEACH/HUMPHREY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS WHERE GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCHUKNECHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/053 029/054 034/061 033/052 030/049 028/044 029/046
20/B 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W 22/B
LVM 027/050 025/053 032/058 030/050 025/043 023/042 024/044
20/N 00/U 00/N 03/W 22/W 22/W 22/B
HDN 032/056 029/056 026/062 031/056 028/051 026/048 028/050
20/U 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W 22/B
MLS 029/056 027/055 029/063 032/055 030/050 027/048 030/050
00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/B
4BQ 032/056 032/055 030/061 032/055 027/052 025/047 028/049
20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/B
BHK 029/055 026/056 029/063 032/053 028/049 026/046 029/048
10/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/B
SHR 031/053 023/054 023/061 028/056 024/045 022/046 024/048
20/B 00/B 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W 22/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 080022
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
515 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
...UPDATE TO BOTH AVIATION AND PUBLIC PORTIONS...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ZONE AND STATE FORECASTS EARLY THIS EVENING TO
REMOVE HIGH WIND WARNING FROM EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY. WEST WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN
GLACIER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOW TO EXPIRE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO AGAIN INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO
40 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MONTANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. LOSS
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0015Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL ACROSS MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE
BELOW. THE STRONG AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT WILL OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE
DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AROUND AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT...AND SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH VALLEY FLOORS IN SOUTHWEST
MONTANA (INCLUDING KHLN AND KBZN...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE THERE). THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE PLAINS AREAS...BUT THE CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP THEM DRY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TEMPORARILY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 05Z AND 12Z...INCREASING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND UP TO 35
KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. COULSTON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 246 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
EFFECT DOWNSLOPE WILL HAVE ON THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
PLAINS. MODELS STILL TEND TO BE DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TO CHANGE THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY. ANOTHER
EFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME OVER EASTERN
GLACIER COUNTY BUT STILL PLAN TO CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN
THAT AREA UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. BLANK
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO
FALL AS COOLER AIR SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OUR NEXT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER OVERALL PROGRESSION SEEMS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DECENT DYNAMICS WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT THE EC BEGINS TO SPLIT THE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA MTNS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR THAT MAY LEAD TO VALLEY RAIN
AND SNOW AND ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO KEPT POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MLS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 34 49 30 55 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 32 47 30 52 / 10 10 0 0
HLN 31 48 27 53 / 0 10 0 0
BZN 27 52 22 57 / 10 10 0 0
WEY 21 37 14 43 / 30 10 0 0
DLN 24 46 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 29 52 25 54 / 10 10 0 0
LWT 26 47 24 53 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOSS/BLANK
LONG TERM...MLS/GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 072146
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
246 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
EFFECT DOWNSLOPE WILL HAVE ON THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
PLAINS. MODELS STILL TEND TO BE DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS. HOWEVER DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TO CHANGE THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY. ANOTHER
EFFECT OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME OVER EASTERN
GLACIER COUNTY BUT STILL PLAN TO CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN
THAT AREA UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. BLANK
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO
FALL AS COOLER AIR SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OUR NEXT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER OVERALL PROGRESSION SEEMS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DECENT DYNAMICS WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT THE EC BEGINS TO SPLIT THE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA MTNS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR THAT MAY LEAD TO VALLEY RAIN
AND SNOW AND ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO KEPT POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MLS
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KCTB WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR EASTERN GLACIER. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS DRY. A TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT SO CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 34 49 30 55 / 10 10 0 0
CTB 32 47 30 52 / 10 10 0 0
HLN 31 48 27 53 / 0 10 0 0
BZN 27 52 22 57 / 10 10 0 0
WEY 21 37 14 43 / 30 10 0 0
DLN 24 46 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 29 52 25 54 / 10 10 0 0
LWT 26 47 24 53 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...COULSTON
AVIATION...COULSTON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 072145
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
245 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FAST ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TO BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK WAVE WITHIN THE
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS
STILL PROGGING A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWING
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS IDAHO. ALTHOUGH RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY POPPING UP
ACROSS BIG HORN AND SOUTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT POP CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MAYBE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY & MONDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD BOTH DAYS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN
FOCUS WAS ON THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SO I BUMPED UP TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES. DOWN SLOPE
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST WILL DRY THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION AND MOISTURE COMING OFF
THE MOUNTAINS THAT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AND KEEP THE WEST FROM
WARMING UP TOO MUCH. THIS DOWN SLOPE APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN
RECENT EVENTS. EVEN WITH THE DOWN SLOPE AND DRY LOW LAYERS THERE IS
SOME GOOD SYNOPTIC FORCING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH DECENT
MOISTURE. VIRGA IS MOST LIKELY BUT MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...SO NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO SETTLE DOWN WITH A
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY GOOD WEATHER...HOWEVER UPSTREAM LOW COULD EASILY MAKE
THE RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE DIRTY. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FROM
LAST SHIFT...LEFT POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. IF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN RECOMMEND DROPPING POPS AND
RAISING TEMPS. LEACH/HUMPHREY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WITH SOME RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
BIG HORNS AND BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS. LEACH/HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/053 029/054 034/061 033/052 030/049 028/044 029/046
20/B 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W 22/B
LVM 027/050 025/053 032/058 030/050 025/043 023/042 024/044
20/N 00/U 00/N 03/W 22/W 22/W 22/B
HDN 032/056 029/056 026/062 031/056 028/051 026/048 028/050
20/U 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W 22/B
MLS 030/056 027/055 029/063 032/055 030/050 027/048 030/050
00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/B
4BQ 032/056 032/055 030/061 032/055 027/052 025/047 028/049
20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/B
BHK 029/055 026/056 029/063 032/053 028/049 026/046 029/048
20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W 22/B
SHR 031/053 023/054 023/061 028/056 024/045 022/046 024/048
20/B 00/B 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W 22/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 072134
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
234 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY...THE FIRST MAJOR WEATHER DISTURBANCE HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THOUGH INSTABILITY BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM HAS INITIATED SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
AHEAD OF A SECOND AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TONIGHT...THIS IS A PRETTY STRONG SYSTEM AS SEEN BY A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. NECESSARY OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM MODERATE TO STRONG WEST
WINDS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THIS STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWS ABOVE 3500 FEET
OVERNIGHT. SEE GTFWSWMSO FOR DETAILS CONCERNING THIS WINTER EVENT.
IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE STRONGEST AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO BE OF A SHOWERY NATURE...THUS SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED.
MONDAY...A SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS RIDGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHWEST MONTANA AND GLACIER NP MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LATE MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ALL PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK IMPULSE LATE
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST IN THE PERIOD TO BRING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY FROM NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWARD
THROUGH NORTHWEST MONTANA. A MORE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA. KGPI AND KMSO MAY BE IMPACTED WITH A QUICK BURST
OF RAIN OR SNOW THAT WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS.
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AFTER 03Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET FOR
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPN
LONG TERM....KITSMILLER
AVIATION...RPN
000
FXUS65 KGGW 072116
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO SEND DOWN
SHORTWAVES OF ENERGY...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NEARLY ZONE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING
THESE SHORTWAVES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
PLUS OUR OWN SOUNDING WAS SHOWING A LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CONTINUES TO
SHOW RELATIVELY DRY MID AND HIGH LEVEL SO EXPECT THE SKY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE.
THE BREEZE WIND OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN
LIGHT OVERNIGHT DUE TO SURFACE BASED NOCTURNAL INVERSION ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS INVERSION WILL DISAPPEAR AFTER 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING
AND EXPECT THE WIND TO PICK UP AFTER 11 AM ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AS THIS WAVE PASSES THE STRONGER WINDS WILL HAVE
A CHANCE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THIS MEANS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN NOT A CERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME AS MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO DISAGREE. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL ALSO FORCE A LITTLE MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE
MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE ON MONDAY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER AND LESS AFTERNOON WIND. RSMITH
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW.
DIFFERENCES DEVELOP WITH TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AROUND WEDNESDAY...WITH VARYING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION INTO
MONTANA THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE MODELS MORE CHAOTIC IN HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN.
EBERT
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THE MODELS STILL ARE SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT BASED ON THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS ON THE PREVIOUS DAY.
SINCE THEN THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
00Z RUNS. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A S/W RIDGE EXITING
THE REGION AND TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE EC WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT. POPS WERE PUT IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES ON THURSDAY AS IT
APPEARS THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM THE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE
ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED. THE LOW THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MONTANA SEEMS TO UNDERGO SOME LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND DEVELOPS INTO
QUITE A STRONG SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY THE MODELS WILL
MODIFY THIS IN LATER RUNS BUT AT THIS POINT...THIS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO LOOK AFTER. SHALLENBERGER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WEST WINDS
WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM ALBERTA WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BRIEFLY STRONGER
GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAE
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 071806
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
CUT BANK GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 50 KNOTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING JUST FOR THAT AREA. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHTER OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SO DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING THERE. BLANK
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1800Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KCTB WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT...A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR EASTERN GLACIER. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS DRY. A TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT SO CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 928 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/
FXUS65 KTFX 071628
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
928 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS ARE HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.
DID LOWER SKY COVER ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED STRONG DOWNSLOPE. SPEAKING OF
DOWNSLOPE INCREASED THE WINDS SOME OVER THE EAST SLOPES FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND ALSO DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. BLANK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 33 49 30 / 10 0 10 0
CTB 48 32 47 30 / 10 0 10 0
HLN 50 31 48 27 / 10 0 10 0
BZN 53 27 51 22 / 10 0 10 0
WEY 39 21 37 14 / 50 10 20 0
DLN 47 24 46 21 / 10 10 10 0
HVR 52 29 52 25 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 50 26 47 24 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...GUSTAFSON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KMSO 071749
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1049 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...WINTER STORM WARING ABOVE 3500 FEET CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL HAS PUSHED THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING MOISTURE TOGETHER WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
.AVIATION...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MAKE FOR SHOWERY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY WILL BE PREVALENT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRFIELDS OF
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE VICINITY OF KGPI WILL BE THE MOST
IMPACTED. THE CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INCREASED
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH LOCAL
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMSO...KBTM AND KSMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/
..BACKCOUNTRY HUNTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER
CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...
DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE 36 HOUR PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS COMBINING WITH UPPER LEVEL
WAVES BRINGING BOUTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FIRST SUCH
WAVE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING EASTERN WASHINGTON AND WILL IMPACT
NORTHWEST MONTANA BY MID MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE
WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 4500 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AND 3500 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. IN ADDITION WINDS
WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. A BRIEF BREAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON WEST FACING SLOPES. THEREFORE THE WATCH THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A WINTER STORM WARNING.
PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MISSOULA FOR DETAILS.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING OVERHEAD MAY BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND LOLO PASS. THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH THIS SOLUTION WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
RUNS TO SEE IF THEY CONTINUE THIS TREND. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS FOR DETAILS PERTAINING TO THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
SUNDAY NIGHT A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN REGION DECREASING SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A COOL
NIGHT ON TAP SUNDAY NIGHT AS DECENT CLEARING IS EXPECTED UNDER
THIS RIDGE.
THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR MONDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF MORNING FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION MID
WEEK WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 4500 FEET FOR
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPN
LONG TERM....MEAD
AVIATION...RPN
000
FXUS65 KTFX 071732
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1032 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
CUT BANK GUSTING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 50 KNOTS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON SO
WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING JUST FOR THAT AREA. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHTER OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT SO DO NOT PLAN ON
ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING THERE. BLANK
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KCTB WHERE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO
45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS DRY. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KHLN AND KBZN WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY REACH THOSE
VALLEYS SO ADDED VCSH TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT CLOUDS AND
WINDS WILL DECREASE. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MLS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 928 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/
FXUS65 KTFX 071628
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
928 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS ARE HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.
DID LOWER SKY COVER ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED STRONG DOWNSLOPE. SPEAKING OF
DOWNSLOPE INCREASED THE WINDS SOME OVER THE EAST SLOPES FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND ALSO DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. BLANK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 33 49 30 / 10 0 10 0
CTB 48 32 47 30 / 10 0 10 0
HLN 50 31 48 27 / 10 0 10 0
BZN 53 27 51 22 / 10 0 10 0
WEY 39 21 37 14 / 50 10 20 0
DLN 47 24 46 21 / 10 10 10 0
HVR 52 29 52 25 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 50 26 47 24 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MTZ010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...GUSTAFSON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 071643
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
943 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.MORNING UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND THEREFORE NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME. A FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH
MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT POP CHANCE FOR THESE AREAS. WEB CAMS SHOW
SNOW HAS ENDED IN COOKE CITY BUT WITH SATELLITE SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST OUT OF IDAHO...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED WAVE...BELIEVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
GOING FOR THE DAY ACROSS THIS AREA. WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPING
TODAY BUT MUCH LIGHTER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. THIS MAY
HINDER SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS BUT GIVEN WEAKER WINDS...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES GOING. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AT TIMES
ACROSS THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON. HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED THANKS TO
ANOTHER DOWNSLOPE AND WELL MIXED DAY. HAVE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS
UP FOR TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS SPLIT TROUGH THEN MOVES ACROSS INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND
GREAT BASIN AT MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY
FOR TEMPS AS WE MUST BALANCE OUT WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS VERSUS
TIMING OF WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GFS QUICKER WITH FRONT WHILE
ECMWF SLOWER.
DGRPG/DT FUNCTION SHOWS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSISTENT FOR LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW
AS TO WHICH MODEL OR CYCLE RUN IS BEST. THEREFORE WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGES FOR LATTER PART OF WEEK BUT MAY TREND INHERITED FORECASTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
VFR FLYING WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. HUMPHREY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 032/053 029/053 031/061 033/052 030/047 028/044
2/W 20/U 00/B 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 051 027/049 024/052 031/058 030/050 025/043 023/042
3/W 20/N 00/B 00/N 03/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 057 032/056 029/056 026/062 031/056 028/049 026/048
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 057 031/056 029/054 029/063 032/055 030/050 027/048
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
4BQ 056 032/056 032/055 030/061 032/055 027/048 025/047
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
BHK 055 031/056 030/055 031/063 032/053 028/048 026/046
0/B 20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
SHR 055 031/055 026/051 023/061 028/056 024/045 022/046
2/W 20/B 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 071628
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
928 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS ARE HANDLED WELL BY THE CURRENT FORECAST.
DID LOWER SKY COVER ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED STRONG DOWNSLOPE. SPEAKING OF
DOWNSLOPE INCREASED THE WINDS SOME OVER THE EAST SLOPES FOR THE
REST OF THIS MORNING AND ALSO DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA. BLANK
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KCTB WHERE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO
45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS DRY. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KHLN AND KBZN WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY REACH THOSE
VALLEYS SO ADDED VCSH TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT CLOUDS AND
WINDS WILL DECREASE. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MLS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FLOW OVER THE ZONES WEAKENS WHILE TO THE
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC THROUGH SUNDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
ZONES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE
UNTIL IT BEGINS TO WARM MONDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS TODAY AND SUNDAY...AND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMALS ON MONDAY. ZELZER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO
FALL AS COOLER AIR SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OUR NEXT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER OVERALL PROGRESSION SEEMS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DECENT DYNAMICS WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT THE EC BEGINS TO SPLIT THE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA MTNS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR THAT MAY LEAD TO VALLEY RAIN
AND SNOW AND ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO KEPT POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MLS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 33 49 30 / 10 0 10 0
CTB 48 32 47 30 / 10 0 10 0
HLN 50 31 48 27 / 10 0 10 0
BZN 53 27 51 22 / 10 0 10 0
WEY 39 21 37 14 / 50 10 20 0
DLN 47 24 46 21 / 10 10 10 0
HVR 52 29 52 25 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 50 26 47 24 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...GUSTAFSON
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 071620
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
920 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES PLANNED THIS
MORNING. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL KEEP THINGS RATHER DRY ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
WEATHER FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. THE ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
OTHER THEN SLIGHT STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS ON SUNDAY. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 50S. RSMITH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FLAT...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
COOLER AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED FOLLOWING DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. 2 MINOR SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW...BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIP FROM THEM...AS THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE
IS GREATLY LACKING...TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN AIRMASS TEMPS THRU MON EITHER.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CHANNEL SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT OVER
MT...WHICH WAS SHOWN WELL BY THE 00Z KGGW SOUNDING. WATER VAPOR
ALSO SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER S ID. MODELS AND UPPER FLOW
INDICATE THIS WILL BE STEERED ENE ACROSS N WY/S MT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVE...WITH LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.
WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THAN EXPECTED IN
SOME PLACES...WHILE OTHER LOWER AREAS HAVE GONE VERY LIGHT.
SURFACE BASED NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND SHALLOW
THIS MORN...SO MIXING OUT BY 10 AM OR SO TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
LESSER SPEEDS THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...WINDS
AT THAT LEVEL BEING STRONGEST IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BE RATHER WEAK THRU MONDAY...SO LOSS OF
MIXING WILL DROP WINDS TO LIGHT QUICKLY FOR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORN HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
AND RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MORNING INVERSION WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER...BUT WILL AGAIN MIX OUT TO 850 MB OR SO IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AT THESE LEVELS ARE AS MUCH AS 35 KT...IN OUR N
MOST ZONES SUNDAY...AND THAT LIKELY WILL REQUIRE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY TOO.
ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE SUN EVE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LITTLE OTHER
IMPACT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY SIMILAR DAY MONDAY...WITH LESS WIND
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MODELS STILL ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT BASED ON THE 00Z AND
12Z RUNS ON THE PREVIOUS DAY. SINCE THEN THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A S/W RIDGE EXITING THE REGION AND TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE THE
LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE EC
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. POPS WERE PUT IN THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES ON THURSDAY AS IT APPEARS THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL CLIP
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ONLY WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM THE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE
ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED. THE LOW THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MONTANA SEEMS TO UNDERGO SOME LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND DEVELOPS INTO
QUITE A STRONG SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY THE MODELS WILL
MODIFY THIS IN LATER RUNS BUT AT THIS POINT...THIS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO LOOK AFTER. SHALLENBERGER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT AND CONTINUE AROUND AT 10 KT
IN GENERAL THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO VERY
LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN
THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLENBERGER
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH OF 71 DEGREES IN GLASGOW YESTERDAY...NOV 6TH...TIED A
RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE SET IN 1931. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 6 TIMES
IN THE PAST WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCURRED ANY LATER IN THE
SEASON. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN NE MT REACHED THE 70S YESTERDAY. THE
75 DEGREES HIGHS RECORDED AT WINNNET...TERRY...AND PINE HILL RAWS
WERE THE WARMEST. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE FROM COOPERATIVE
STATIONS WERE SET AT GLENDIVE WATER PLANT...74 DEGREES...BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD FOR NOV 6TH OF 73 IN 1903. BREDETTE HAD A HIGH OF
70 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 69 IN 1954. SIMONSEN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 071150
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
450 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATED AVIATION
.DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FLOW OVER THE ZONES WEAKENS WHILE TO THE
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC THROUGH SUNDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
ZONES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE
UNTIL IT BEGINS TO WARM MONDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS TODAY AND SUNDAY...AND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMALS ON MONDAY. ZELZER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO
FALL AS COOLER AIR SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OUR NEXT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER OVERALL PROGRESSION SEEMS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DECENT DYNAMICS WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT THE EC BEGINS TO SPLIT THE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA MTNS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR THAT MAY LEAD TO VALLEY RAIN
AND SNOW AND ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO KEPT POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MLS
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KCTB WHERE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO
45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS DRY. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KHLN AND KBZN WHERE SOME MOISTURE MAY REACH THOSE
VALLEYS SO ADDED VCSH TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT CLOUDS AND
WINDS WILL DECREASE. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MLS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 33 49 30 / 10 0 10 0
CTB 48 32 47 30 / 10 0 10 0
HLN 50 31 48 27 / 10 0 10 0
BZN 53 27 51 22 / 10 0 10 0
WEY 39 21 37 14 / 50 10 20 0
DLN 47 24 46 21 / 10 10 10 0
HVR 52 29 52 25 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 50 26 47 24 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 071100
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
400 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A FLAT...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A COOLER AIRMASS HAS
ARRIVED FOLLOWING DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE YESTERDAY...HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 2 MINOR
SHORTWAVES IN THIS FLOW...BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM
THEM...AS THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS GREATLY
LACKING...TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
AIRMASS TEMPS THRU MON EITHER.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CHANNEL SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT OVER
MT...WHICH WAS SHOWN WELL BY THE 00Z KGGW SOUNDING. WATER VAPOR
ALSO SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER S ID. MODELS AND UPPER FLOW
INDICATE THIS WILL BE STEERED ENE ACROSS N WY/S MT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVE...WITH LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.
WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THAN EXPECTED IN
SOME PLACES...WHILE OTHER LOWER AREAS HAVE GONE VERY LIGHT.
SURFACE BASED NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND SHALLOW
THIS MORN...SO MIXING OUT BY 10 AM OR SO TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECT
LESSER SPEEDS THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB...WINDS
AT THAT LEVEL BEING STRONGEST IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO BE RATHER WEAK THRU MONDAY...SO LOSS OF
MIXING WILL DROP WINDS TO LIGHT QUICKLY FOR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORN HOURS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR WITH A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
AND RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MORNING INVERSION WILL BE A
LITTLE STRONGER...BUT WILL AGAIN MIX OUT TO 850 MB OR SO IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AT THESE LEVELS ARE AS MUCH AS 35 KT...IN OUR N
MOST ZONES SUNDAY...AND THAT LIKELY WILL REQUIRE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY TOO.
ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE SUN EVE WITH SOME CLOUDS AND LITTLE OTHER
IMPACT...FOLLOWED BY A VERY SIMILAR DAY MONDAY...WITH LESS WIND
THOUGH.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MODELS STILL ARE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT BASED ON THE 00Z AND
12Z RUNS ON THE PREVIOUS DAY. SINCE THEN THE GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS. THE PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A S/W RIDGE EXITING THE REGION AND TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE THE
LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE EC
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. POPS WERE PUT IN THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES ON THURSDAY AS IT APPEARS THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL CLIP
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ONLY WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM THE PATTERN BECOMES QUITE
ACTIVE AND AMPLIFIED. THE LOW THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MONTANA SEEMS TO UNDERGO SOME LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND DEVELOPS INTO
QUITE A STRONG SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MOST LIKELY THE MODELS WILL
MODIFY THIS IN LATER RUNS BUT AT THIS POINT...THIS REMAINS
SOMETHING TO LOOK AFTER. SHALLENBERGER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT AND CONTINUE AROUND AT 10 KT
IN GENERAL THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO VERY
LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN
THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLENBERGER
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH OF 71 DEGREES IN GLASGOW YESTERDAY...NOV 6TH...TIED A
RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE SET IN 1931. THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN 6 TIMES
IN THE PAST WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES OCCURRED ANY LATER IN THE
SEASON. NUMEROUS LOCATIONS IN NE MT REACHED THE 70S YESTERDAY. THE
75 DEGREES HIGHS RECORDED AT WINNNET...TERRY...AND PINE HILL RAWS
WERE THE WARMEST. RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE FROM COOPERATIVE
STATIONS WERE SET AT GLENDIVE WATER PLANT...74 DEGREES...BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD FOR NOV 6TH OF 73 IN 1903. BREDETTE HAD A HIGH OF
70 DEGREES...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 69 IN 1954. SIMONSEN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KMSO 071035
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
335 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
...BACKCOUNTRY HUNTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER
CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...
.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE 36 HOUR PERIOD SHAPING UP WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS COMBINING WITH UPPER LEVEL
WAVES BRINGING BOUTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF NORTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FIRST SUCH
WAVE IS CURRENTLY ENTERING EASTERN WASHINGTON AND WILL IMPACT
NORTHWEST MONTANA BY MID MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE
WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 4500 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...AND 3500 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. IN ADDITION WINDS
WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. A BRIEF BREAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHEN
ITS ALL SAID AND DONE...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE UPWARDS OF A FOOT OF NEW SNOW...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ON WEST FACING SLOPES. THEREFORE THE WATCH THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A WINTER STORM WARNING.
PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MISSOULA FOR DETAILS.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS. THIS
FRONT COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING OVERHEAD MAY BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND LOLO PASS. THIS BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH THIS SOLUTION WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
RUNS TO SEE IF THEY CONTINUE THIS TREND. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS FOR DETAILS PERTAINING TO THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO.
SUNDAY NIGHT A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN REGION DECREASING SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. A COOL
NIGHT ON TAP SUNDAY NIGHT AS DECENT CLEARING IS EXPECTED UNDER
THIS RIDGE.
THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR MONDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF MORNING FOG IN THE FAVORED VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTING THE REGION MID
WEEK WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE FOR SHOWERY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY WILL BE PREVALENT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AIRFIELDS OF
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE VICINITY OF KGPI WILL BE THE MOST
IMPACTED. THE CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND INCREASED
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH LOCAL
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
KMSO...KBTM AND KSMN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 4500 FEET FOR LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-WEST GLACIER
REGION.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION.
ID...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MEAD
LONG TERM....PALLISTER
000
FXUS65 KTFX 071030
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
330 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FLOW OVER THE ZONES WEAKENS WHILE TO THE
WEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL
THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LOW. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC THROUGH SUNDAY BUT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
ZONES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE
UNTIL IT BEGINS TO WARM MONDAY UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS TODAY AND SUNDAY...AND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMALS ON MONDAY. ZELZER
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST BY
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN BEGIN TO
FALL AS COOLER AIR SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF OUR NEXT STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...HOWEVER OVERALL PROGRESSION SEEMS TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BOTH MODELS INDICATE DECENT DYNAMICS WITH THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH PACIFIC
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...BUT THE EC BEGINS TO SPLIT THE TROUGH BY
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST MONTANA MTNS. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN COOLER AIR THAT MAY LEAD TO VALLEY RAIN
AND SNOW AND ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SO KEPT POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MLS
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE FORECAST. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE...BUT GUSTS OF 50
TO 60 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. MOISTURE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS IN CLOUDS AND
RAIN/SNOW. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS AREAS DRY.
WINDS...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 51 33 49 30 / 10 0 10 0
CTB 48 32 47 30 / 10 0 10 0
HLN 50 31 48 27 / 10 0 10 0
BZN 53 27 51 22 / 10 0 10 0
WEY 39 21 37 14 / 50 10 20 0
DLN 47 24 46 21 / 10 10 10 0
HVR 52 29 52 25 / 0 0 10 0
LWT 50 26 47 24 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 071016
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
316 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
A STRONG JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. MOISTURE
ENTRAINED WITH THE JET WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO
WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS TODAY.
WEB CAMS AND SNOTEL DATA SHOW 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN THE
COOKE CITY AREA LAST EVENING. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES
THERE TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON A FAIRLY STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL
PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS
ENERGY WILL BE FIGHTING A FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT...SO
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MIXING WILL
ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO DESCEND TO THE SURFACE. EASTERN
AREAS WILL SEE LESS MIXING RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW
AREAS IN EASTERN ZONES AROUND 60.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE JET STREAM CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SHIFT
NORTHEAST DRAGGING ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THE UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
LEAVES SOUTHERN MONTANA IN BIT OF A SPLIT FLOW CALL AREA WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND. CHAMBERS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. RIDGE OVER THE REGION MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED THANKS TO
ANOTHER DOWNSLOPE AND WELL MIXED DAY. HAVE NUDGED FORECAST HIGHS
UP FOR TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS SPLIT TROUGH THEN MOVES ACROSS INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND
GREAT BASIN AT MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY
FOR TEMPS AS WE MUST BALANCE OUT WARMING DOWNSLOPE WINDS VERSUS
TIMING OF WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT. GFS QUICKER WITH FRONT WHILE
ECMWF SLOWER.
DPROG/DT FUNCTION SHOWS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
INCONSISTENT FOR LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW
AS TO WHICH MODEL OR CYCLE RUN IS BEST. THEREFORE WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGES FOR LATTER PART OF WEEK BUT MAY TREND INHERITED FORECASTS
SLIGHTLY TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCAL MOUNTAIN RANGES AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF KBIL
AND WEST OF KSHR. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 032/053 029/053 031/061 033/052 030/047 028/044
2/W 20/U 00/B 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 051 027/049 024/052 031/058 030/050 025/043 023/042
3/W 20/N 00/B 00/N 03/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 057 032/056 029/056 026/062 031/056 028/049 026/048
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 057 031/056 029/054 029/063 032/055 030/050 027/048
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
4BQ 056 032/056 032/055 030/061 032/055 027/048 025/047
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
BHK 055 031/056 030/055 031/063 032/053 028/048 026/046
0/B 20/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
SHR 055 031/055 026/051 023/061 028/056 024/045 022/046
2/W 20/B 00/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 070552
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
STRONG AND STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY FROM ROGERS PASS NORTHWARD...WHERE BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXTEND ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. RADAR HAS
SHOWED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND STABILITY INCREASES.
CURRENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINIMAL TWEAKS
TO POPS/SKY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HOENISCH
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE FORECAST. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.
WIND GUSTS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE...BUT GUSTS OF 50
TO 60 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. MOISTURE
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAINS IN CLOUDS AND
RAIN/SNOW. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS AREAS DRY.
WINDS...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 527 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009/
FXUS65 KTFX 070027
AFDTFX
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS BANDED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE MOIST-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS...EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 89/287 AND THE
AUGUSTA...CHOTEAU BROWNING AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
THE PLAINS BUT VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED IN HEAVIER BANDS FOR
SHORT PERIODS. WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND ARE SAFELY
BELOW WARNING LEVELS ACROSS JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS
COUNTIES...ALLOWING THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE TO EXPIRE.
HOENISCH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009/
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST MONTANA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION A LITTLE IN THAT
AREA AS THE LATEST NAM COMPUTER MODEL RUN SHOWS DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT FOR THE
PLAINS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST THERE. THE MOUNTAINS
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
FROM THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL ALSO ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS. AS FOR THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY SO WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER JUDITH BASIN
AND FERGUS COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE PLAINS BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THOSE OF TODAY. CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE MORE HIGH WINDS HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION. BLANK
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION YIELDING QUIET CONDITIONS
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE A
JET STREAK MOVING OVER MONTANA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH MAY ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SEEM SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH
TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT FOR NOW AM
ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE VALLEYS WITH ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
MTNS SO HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCONSISTENCIES WITH OUR NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE EC
INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...GFS SHOWING A
DEEP TROUGH AND THE GEM_GBL INDICATES PURE WESTERLY FLOW SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY FOR PRECIP AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MLS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 34 52 33 51 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 33 49 33 49 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 35 51 33 49 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 33 54 28 52 / 10 30 10 10
WEY 29 39 20 38 / 40 50 20 20
DLN 28 46 25 46 / 0 20 10 10
HVR 31 53 30 53 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 30 50 28 48 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KTFX 070436
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
936 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
STRONG AND STILL SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY FROM ROGERS PASS NORTHWARD...WHERE BANDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXTEND ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS. RADAR HAS
SHOWED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE DECREASES AND STABILITY INCREASES. CURRENT
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME MINIMAL TWEAKS TO
POPS/SKY BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. HOENISCH
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE FORECAST. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 35 TO
45 KT RANGE...BUT GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. MOISTURE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL KEEP THE PLAINS AREAS DRY. WINDS...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS WILL
THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 527 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009/
FXUS65 KTFX 070027
AFDTFX
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS BANDED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE MOIST-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS...EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 89/287 AND THE
AUGUSTA...CHOTEAU BROWNING AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
THE PLAINS BUT VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED IN HEAVIER BANDS FOR
SHORT PERIODS. WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND ARE SAFELY
BELOW WARNING LEVELS ACROSS JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS
COUNTIES...ALLOWING THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE TO EXPIRE.
HOENISCH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009/
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST MONTANA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION A LITTLE IN THAT
AREA AS THE LATEST NAM COMPUTER MODEL RUN SHOWS DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT FOR THE
PLAINS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST THERE. THE MOUNTAINS
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
FROM THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL ALSO ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS. AS FOR THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY SO WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER JUDITH BASIN
AND FERGUS COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE PLAINS BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THOSE OF TODAY. CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE MORE HIGH WINDS HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION. BLANK
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION YIELDING QUIET CONDITIONS
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE A
JET STREAK MOVING OVER MONTANA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH MAY ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SEEM SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH
TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT FOR NOW AM
ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE VALLEYS WITH ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
MTNS SO HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCONSISTENCIES WITH OUR NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE EC
INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...GFS SHOWING A
DEEP TROUGH AND THE GEM_GBL INDICATES PURE WESTERLY FLOW SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY FOR PRECIP AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MLS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 34 52 33 51 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 33 49 33 49 / 0 0 0 10
HLN 35 51 33 49 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 33 54 28 52 / 10 30 10 10
WEY 29 39 20 38 / 40 50 20 20
DLN 28 46 25 46 / 0 20 10 10
HVR 31 53 30 53 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 30 50 28 48 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 070404
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
904 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
ONLY PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES MAINLY OVER THE
BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. NO PRECIPITATION MAKING IT BEYOND THE
FOOTHILLS DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS. COOKE CITY WEB CAM SHOWING
IT IS SNOWING AND SOMETIMES SNOWING MODERATELY. SO LIKELY POPS
WORKING OUT GOOD THERE. RADAR ALSO SHOWING MORE PRECIP MOVING
INTO THE SAME AREA TO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN COOKE CITY TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO TWEAK SOME
TEMPS HERE AND THERE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY. SOLUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
DID MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TODAY...BUT OVERALL THEME OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS IN TACT. THE MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR IN
HANDLING THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP LATER IN THE WEEK TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
STILL LOOKS WARM AND MAINLY DRY OVERALL.
WEAK RIDGING SLIDES OVER THE STATE FOR MONDAY WITH THE EXODUS OF
THE SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE
A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY LOOKS QUITE
MILD WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A
SPLITTING TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 12C WHICH WOULD PUT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. CLOUDS MAY BE
A DETERRENT TO REALLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SO WILL NOT BE THAT
AGGRESSIVE. DID RAISE MAXES A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE
PATTERN SHAPING UP.
THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITS WITH MONTANA IN BETWEEN THE STRONGEST
ENERGY. THIS WILL PROVIDE LIMITED LIFT WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE HANDING AROUND. KEPT THE POPS TO SLIGHT AND CHANCE FOR
THE TROUGH WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST FACING SLOPES.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE COOLER WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SO NOT
EXPECTING A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN.
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SPLITTING TROUGH DROPS INTO CALIFORNIA
AS A CUT OFF LOW THURSDAY. THIS LOW IS PROJECTED TO FILL AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING BY FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS...SO BEARS WATCHING.
QG FORCING REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE CORE OF THE LOW AND FOR THE
TIME BEING STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL NOT ADJUST
POPS AT THIS POINT. THE ECMWF WAS DEEPER WITH THE LOW AND NOT
NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH. THE ECMWF WOULD BE WETTER FRIDAY. THE GFS
HAS BEEN THE BETTER AND MORE CONSISTENT MODEL OF LATE...SO WILL
SIDE WITH IT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS THIS COULD BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE. HUMPHREY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE NIGHTTIME INVERSION COMBINED
WITH PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOCAL MOUNTAIN RANGES OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY
CAUSE PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SCHUKNECHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/054 034/054 028/051 032/060 032/050 030/045 030/045
00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
LVM 033/049 031/049 026/052 031/059 029/048 025/047 026/047
22/W 20/B 00/B 00/N 03/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 040/058 035/056 025/053 026/062 029/055 028/054 025/054
00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 033/056 030/056 026/054 027/064 029/052 030/052 027/052
00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
4BQ 036/057 034/054 027/055 028/059 029/051 027/049 025/049
00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
BHK 034/055 031/055 027/058 031/063 032/050 028/048 027/048
00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 22/W 22/W
SHR 031/056 029/054 022/049 022/060 025/051 024/046 021/046
00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 02/W 22/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
000
FXUS65 KGGW 070400
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
900 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE CHANNEL SHOWS MAJOR DRYING ALOFT CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA AND RESULTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 00Z KGGW SOUNDING
LOOKING VERY DRY. MODERATELY STRONG COOL ADVECTION CONTINUES AS
SHOWN AT ALL LEVELS OFF THE SURFACE ON SOUNDING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 1-2C BY 12Z.
WINDS SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY STARRING TO DIMINISH AND SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN REST OF THE NIGHT.
STILL BLOWING OVER 20 MPH AT THE LAKE AT 8 PM...BUT WILL NOT RE-
ISSUE AS EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH THIS HOUR. WINDS TO BE LIGHT ALL
AREAS BY MORN...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW FREEZING. ONLY UPDATE IS FOR EXPIRATION OF LAKE WIND
ADVISORY. SIMONSEN
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...A VORT MAX HAS HELPED PRODUCE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED
BEHIND A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN ZONES AT ABOUT 2 PM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS
FROM GOING CALM INTO THE EVENING HOURS A BIT ESPECIALLY IN
EXPOSED/ELEVATED AREAS. GOING LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK
LAKE EXPIRATION AT 7 PM LOOKS GOOD.
WATER VAPOR WAS SHOWING A FAST FLOW UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PACIFIC JET (OF 110-120
KTS) HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DISTURBANCES IN THIS
FLOW LOOK TO BE TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE ANY WEATHER FOR THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BIGGEST CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST WERE TO
LOWER CLOUD AMOUNTS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING
OUT THE AIRMASS. JAMBA
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF BUILD A LARGE RIDGE INTO EASTERN
MONTANA DUE TO DEVELOPING UPPER TROFF OFF OF THE WEST COAST.
THINGS SHOULD STAY RATHER MILD ACROSS NEMONT UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH
MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT IN NORTH DAKOTA BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE IS STILL POINTING TO THIS FRONT MOVING THROUGH RATHER
DRY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE QPF THEN THE
GFS. KEPT THING DRY FOR NOW BUT MIGHT NEED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES IT TREND.
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROFF BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AND SLOWLY
WORKS IT WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE NOW
STARTING TO LOOK SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AND IT EASTWARD
PROGRESS. THEY BOTH KEEP MOST OF THE QPF SOUTH OF THE REGION SO
GOING TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FROM THURSDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.
DID HOWEVER LOWER THE DAYTIME HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER ON FRIDAY AS AS
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF SEEM TO BE TRENDING COLDER THEN
BEFORE. RSMITH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A RATHER QUIET FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO
CONTINUE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS OR COLD WEATHER...AND
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP.
SURFACE AND SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE W BRINGS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. THICKNESSES CLIMB TO THE MID
550S DM TUE GIVING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN...NOT QUITE AS
WARM AS THESE PAST FEW DAYS THOUGH.
MODELS BRING A RATHER WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT/WED FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT COOLING. THERE IS POOR UPPER
SUPPORT...AND MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO WILL KEEP POPS QUITE LOW.
MODELS THEN HAVE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT AND TROUBLE WITH HANDLING
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT FOLLOWS FROM THE W...TIMING...LOCATION AND
INTENSITY...AND ALSO WHETHER THERE WILL BE A SECOND THROUGH ON DAY
8. MAJORITY OF MODEL RUNS LATELY HAVE BEEN MORE PROMINENT WITH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THIS UPPER TROUGH...BUT SOME MODELS...
PARTICULARLY THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NOGAPS HAVE SHOWN A MORE PROMINENT
S PART OF THE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...THESE 2 MODEL RUNS BOTH FORMED
A SURFACE WAVE OVER CA AND MOVED IN NE TO WY BY THU NIGHT...GIVING
RAIN TO NE MT THU NIGHT/FRI. THIS A MINORITY SOLUTION THOUGH...AND GFS
ENSEMBLES REFLECT THIS UNCERTAINLY VERY WELL.
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY LESSER INCONSISTENCY OF MOST OF
OTHER MODELS...PER THE ONGOING FORECAST. THESE SOLUTIONS LEAVE
ANY PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL IN ANY PARTICULAR 12 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD...SO WILL KEEP POPS ALL AROUND 10 PCT FOR LATER
PERIODS...AND KEEP COOLING VERY MODEST AS WELL. SIMONSEN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY. WEST WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AROUND 10 KT IN GENERAL THRU
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO VERY LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
000
FXUS65 KTFX 070027
AFDTFX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
527 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AS BANDED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE MOIST-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH UNIFORM WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE MTNS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS...EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 89/287 AND THE
AUGUSTA...CHOTEAU BROWNING AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL ON
THE PLAINS BUT VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED IN HEAVIER BANDS FOR
SHORT PERIODS. WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND ARE SAFELY
BELOW WARNING LEVELS ACROSS JUDITH BASIN AND FERGUS
COUNTIES...ALLOWING THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE TO EXPIRE.
HOENISCH
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE FORECAST. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 35 TO
45 KT RANGE...BUT GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 KT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. MOISTURE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS IN CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL KEEP THE PLAINS AREAS DRY. WINDS...CLOUDS...AND SHOWERS WILL
THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 500 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009/
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST MONTANA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION A LITTLE IN THAT
AREA AS THE LATEST NAM COMPUTER MODEL RUN SHOWS DECENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES ON
SUNDAY. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT FOR THE
PLAINS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST THERE. THE MOUNTAINS
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW
FROM THESE SHORTWAVES. WILL ALSO ADD SOME BLOWING SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS. AS FOR THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND
EASTERN GLACIER COUNTY SO WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING THERE
BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER JUDITH BASIN
AND FERGUS COUNTIES THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE PLAINS BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS THOSE OF TODAY. CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE MORE HIGH WINDS HIGHLIGHTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION. BLANK
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS AFFECT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION YIELDING QUIET CONDITIONS
AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INDICATING A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS PACIFIC MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE A
JET STREAK MOVING OVER MONTANA STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WHICH MAY ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE AREA. THOUGH THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SEEM SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH
TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT FOR NOW AM
ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER
THE VALLEYS WITH ALL SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AND UPDATE ACCORDINGLY. COOLER AND
UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...HOWEVER MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
MTNS SO HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER THOSE AREAS. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCONSISTENCIES WITH OUR NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH THE EC
INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...GFS SHOWING A
DEEP TROUGH AND THE GEM_GBL INDICATES PURE WESTERLY FLOW SO HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGY FOR PRECIP AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MLS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 34 52 33 51 / 0 0 0 10
CTB 33 49 33 49 / 10 0 0 10
HLN 35 51 33 49 / 10 10 10 10
BZN 33 54 28 52 / 20 30 10 10
WEY 29 39 20 38 / 40 50 20 20
DLN 28 46 25 46 / 10 20 10 10
HVR 31 53 30 53 / 0 0 0 10
LWT 30 50 28 48 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
| 
