000
FXUS62 KRAH 230007
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
805 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL REDEVELOP OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AL/FL
GULF COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FL GULF
COAST...CROSSING NORTHERN FL AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ~1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN AL. A NORTHERN STREAM H5 SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED ENE FROM
OHIO TO CAPE COD INTO THE ATLANTIC. H5 RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AN H85 WARM FRONT WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIP UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA OVER GA/SC...NORTHERN AL AND TN. FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER
AL/TN APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE NEARBY UPPER LOW...WHEREAS
PRECIP OVER GA/SC APPEARS TO BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN
ADDITION TO WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
925-850 MB WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL AL/GA. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AL IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY TODAY
AS IT HAS BEEN...A TREND THAT FORECAST MODELS HAVE ANTICIPATED. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE PROG THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TODAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE TAIL END OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVER SOUTHWEST NC/NORTHERN GA BY ~00Z THIS EVENING.
FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE
APPROACH OF THE 925-850 MB WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
AFT/EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME GLANCING DPVA IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN ~00-06Z TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS AN
OPEN WAVE.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING...WHILE MORE MOIST (0.51" PWAT) THAN IT HAS
BEEN SINCE 00Z FRI...STILL CONTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 25C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 700 MB.
THE POINT HERE IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC IS
STILL RELATIVELY DRY. GIVEN THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...AND
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION MOVING
N/NE THROUGH CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC...THE ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE
WEST/SW PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROBABLY
REMAINING DRY THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CATEGORICAL (80-100%) POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM 06-12Z AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN PRONOUNCED
RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM ARE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH 0.10-0.25".
EXPECT A GOOD 0.25-0.50" OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF GREATER THAN 0.50" POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY
AROUND THE WETBULB...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO
LOWER 50S E/SE COASTAL PLAIN.

MONDAY:
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY
AS THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS N/NE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS/DELMARVA. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ON MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN NORTH/NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH MEASURABLE POPS
DECREASING/ENDING FROM SW-NE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ON MONDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.25"...WHILE THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST AS MUCH
AS AN ADDITIONAL 0.50" IN EAST (GEM) OR NORTHERN (NAM) PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE AFT/EVE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY 925-850 MB FLOW OVERRUNS THE STABLE CAD WEDGE IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS MONDAY AFT/EVE.
W/REGARD TO TEMPS...LATEST MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT TOO WARM IN OTHER LOCATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
DAMMING. HAVE DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO WHAT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...RANGING FROM 48F IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN OTHER WORDS...A DIURNAL RANGE OF ONLY 5F OR
LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE STABLE CAD WEDGE PROGGED BY FCST
SOUNDINGS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WANE MONDAY EVENING AS THE THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHUTS DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TREND FROM MONDAY OF
ENDING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
EVENING. THE DAMMING PARENT HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW
SEVERS THE PIEDMONT AIR MASS FROM THE PARENT HIGH... LEAVING BEHIND
A RESIDUAL COOL STABLE POOL OVER CENTRAL NC THAT IS NO LONGER
SUPPORTED BY A STEADY INFLUX OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STABLE AIR AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE PERSISTING IN THE LOWEST 2 KM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY... CAPPED BY A WARM/DRY/SUBSIDING AIR ABOVE 800 MB IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH WEAK AND LIGHTLY
DIFFLUENT MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS... WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SOLID OVERCAST AND
NO LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION... TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A CATEGORY
OR TWO FROM MONDAY`S HIGHS. LOWS 45-50. ON TUESDAY... BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION... BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE STACKED LOW DIGGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. THE NAM HAS THE LIGHTEST SURFACE WINDS... AND IS
ALSO WARMER IN THE CAPPING 850-700 MB LAYER... THUS INHIBITING
MIXING (BOTH HORIZONTALLY AND VERTICALLY) IN THE LOWEST 1 KM.
HEATING FROM ABOVE MAY START TO SLOWLY BURN OFF THE UPPER PORTION OF
THE MOIST STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER... BUT WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT 925 MB... THE WEDGE
AIR MASS SHOULD HOLD FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH CLOUDY
SKIES... HAVE CUT HIGHS BACK FURTHER TO 54-58.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: THE MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE MIDWEST
WOBBLES FROM OVER THE IA/MO BORDER UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING... AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC REMAINS WEAKLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS OVER CENTRAL NC BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
DEPICTS A WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE AT 925-850 MB PUSHING NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT... ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE
RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR MASS. THE NAM HOWEVER HAS A WEAKER WARM FRONT AT
850 MB... KEEPS SURFACE WINDS NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT... AND HOLDS A 925
MB TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN KEEPING THE MOIST AIR LOCKED
IN. GIVEN THE 12KM NAM`S BETTER TERRAIN DEPICTION AND THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN`S AGREEMENT ON WEAK TO CALM SURFACE WINDS... FAVOR
RETAINING THE WEDGE AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... ALONG WITH
AREAS OF FOG. LOWS 45-49. ON WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL LOW HEADS UP
TOWARD THE U.P. OF MI WHILE A SECOND POLAR VORTEX DROPS FROM LAKE
WINNIPEG SOUTH THROUGH IA. BUT VERY LITTLE APPEARS TO CHANGE OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH A CONTINUATION OF A LOW LEVEL COL ZONE WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTIES CORRECTLY DEPICTING EROSION OF A DAMMING AIR
MASS THAT HAS LOST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND NO LONGER HAS ANY
CONNECTION TO A COOL DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOURCE... AND THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION. SINCE THIS AIR MASS SHOULD BE GETTING QUITE VULNERABLE BY
THIS POINT WITH THE ONLY BLOCKADE RESTRICTING DRAINAGE BEING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST... AND WITH 850 WINDS FINALLY BECOMING
WESTERLY PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE DRYING BY AFTERNOON... WILL INDICATE A
GRADUAL DISSOLUTION OF THE WEDGE AIR MASS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
62-66... CLOSE TO PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FACTORING IN
MORNING CLOUDS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE STILL-WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NO CLOUDS ABOVE SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. LOWS 42-47.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS DEEP
TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS OVER
NC. THE FIRST MID LEVEL LOW HEADS UP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE
THE SECOND LOW SWINGS FROM NORTHERN IL TOWARD LAKE ERIE... AND YET
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY AND
DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY. BASED ON AVERAGE TIMING AMONG THE MODELS... THIS LATTER
FEATURE BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURES OVER NORTHEAST NC AND EASTERN VA. WHILE IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF THIS STRONG WAVE DOES INDEED CLOSE OFF JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST
AS THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED... CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE AND ITS RATE OF DEEPENING... LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STEEPEN ENOUGH TO KICK OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK
AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN PLACE WITH NO OPPORTUNITY TO ADVECT ANY
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA... HOWEVER IF DYNAMIC LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH
IT COULD CONDENSE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION IN THIS SORT OF DYNAMICALLY
VIGOROUS PATTERN... AND IF IT OCCURS WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH
THESE SHOWERS. WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EXPECT HIGHS 60-65
THURSDAY... DROPPING TO 51-55 FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: QUIET AND MODERATING WEATHER AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW TRACKS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
QUICKLY TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND INITIALLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM SUNDAY...

EXPECT AVIATION CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC TAF
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN 5-10KFT
WILL TRANSPORT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND E NC OVERNIGHT.

ONE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVED NE THROUGH CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTN
AND IS NOW IN S VA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS WAS VERY DRY WITH
PWS INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) PRODUCT AROUND 50%
OF NORMAL AT 12Z. LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM 22Z INDICATES PW VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 150% OF NORMAL MOVING INTO W AND S NC. REGIONAL RADAR
TRENDS SHOWS A PERSISTENT AND POSSIBLY EXPANDING SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM SOUTH AS OF 23Z. THIS AREA OF PRECIP
WILL REACH ALL TAF LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR BY 06Z. ONCE THE INSITU/HYBRID DAMMING
LOCKS IN TONIGHT AND VERY LOW CLOUDS AND CIGS DEVELOP...THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MECHANISM TO ERODE THE CAD WEDGE IN THE SHORT
TERM. SO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY IN THE IFR
CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...
CAD WEDGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE PERIOD. SO A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CIGS/VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF FOG/DRIZZLE APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH
TUES AND POSSIBLY WED. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON WED OR THU AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY AND AN INCREASING W TO NW
FLOW DEVELOPS BY THE END PF THE PERIOD. -BLAES
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLAES

000
FXUS62 KILM 222348
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
648 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN. CLOUDY COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF WARM-UP...BUT A COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST OR A FREEZE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS JUST ABOUT UPON
US...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AND PLENTY OF PITFALLS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A LITTLE ACROSS SC
COUNTIES BUT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS DRY ACROSS MOST OF NC. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WILL
NOT ARRIVE IN COASTAL NC UNTIL AFTER 00Z...ONCE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL GA
SPREADING INTO SC AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST. SURFACE LOW WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST THIS EVENING...ON
THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN FL. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS IT
APPROACHES. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND CUTOFF PRECIP FOR THE AREA...SAVE FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. FAVOR A WETTER SOLUTION...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE 12Z
GFS/CANADIAN OR 00Z ECMWF. SCALED BACK QPF A LITTLE AS WELL AS
TWEAKING POP DISTRIBUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIP ENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...CHILLY WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS ENTIRE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS. THE
GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE SUPERIOR TO THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE
PATH OF THE LOW MONDAY. MODEL CHOICE HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE FORECAST MONDAY - THE NAM TRACKS THE LOW JUST ONSHORE AND
BRIEFLY BRINGS WILMINGTON INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDING FROM THE NAM 18Z MONDAY OVER WILMINGTON SHOWS 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE AND A SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 76! THIS IS NOT THE PREFERRED
MODEL SOLUTION AND HAS BEEN IGNORED IN FAVOR OF THE GFS.

THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MURKY
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WE HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THESE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FIT THE CONCEPTUAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLOUDY WEDGE BETTER THAN THE NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE STILL ON WED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLOUDY AND COOL DAY. BY WED EVENING
COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AND LATEST GFS SHOWING
ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE GULF MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST WATERS THROUGH
THURS. DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AREA FROM THE WEST ON
THURS...COMBINING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH TO
PRODUCE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF HATTERAS THROUGH THURS NIGHT AND
CONTINUING TO MOVE UP THE COAST AWAY FROM LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRI
WHILE PARENT LOW STILL HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF PCP WILL REMAIN OFF SHORE WITH POTENTIAL TO MAINLY AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS LATE WED INTO THURS WHEN COASTAL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
CLOSEST TO CAROLINA COAST. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURS
PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT WHILE H5 LOW STILL
REMAINS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING W-SW FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THE
MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON FRI...DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL
USHER IN COLDEST AIR FRI THROUGH SAT. CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT ON
FRONT END OF STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH CAA
SHUTTING OFF AND RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. OVERALL BEST CAA SHOULD OCCUR
THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN THE
DECLINE FROM NEAR 1360M DOWN TO NEAR 1310M BY FRI MORNING. 850 TEMPS
DROP BELOW 0 EARLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL HOLD CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WED AND THURS. BY LATE THURS INTO
FRI COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH WINDS HOLDING UP EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT FRI. MUCH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT BUT BEST CAA WILL HAVE
ENDED BY THEN BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. POTENTIAL
FOR FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZE WILL EXIST BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT.
DAY TIME HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT
OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLO/LBT
TERMINALS THIS EVENING...WITH MORE PATCHY TYPE LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY VFR.

CONTINUITY SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY 02Z-03Z AT
FLO/LBT AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN ALOFT ACROSS THESE TERMINALS.
ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
JUST EAST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE.

MAINLY TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 06-08Z. ALTHOUGH IFR
CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING...BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOP CLOSER TO SHORE. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP
TO LIFR AROUND SUNRISE AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO IFR BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY. IFR VISIBILITIES
IN FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXPERIENCE A
SLIGHT INCREASE THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA COAST. STILL THINK SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 25 KT...BUT SEAS WILL EXCEED SCA THRESHOLDS DUE TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
FOUND AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OFF CAPE
ROMAIN. AS LOW PASSES JUST EAST OF THE WATERS...VERY CLOSE TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. LIGHTER SPEEDS AND OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KNOCK A
LITTLE HEIGHT OFF SEAS WITHIN 20 NM...DROPPING SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. DID NOT ALTER END TIME FOR ONGOING SCA BUT IT MAY END UP
BEING TWEAKED BY A FEW HOURS IN EITHER DIRECTION WHEN DETAILS
SURROUNDING THE SURFACE LOW BECOME CLEARER.

SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED MONDAY MORNING
VERY CLOSE TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS TOWER. BY MONDAY EVENING THE
LOW WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF HATTERAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SPREADING OVER THE WATERS. IN FACT WE
WILL MAINTAIN THESE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS WITH CLOUDY COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ANY
RAINFALL MONDAY WILL CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN DRIZZLE SHOULD NOT
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM.

SEAS INITIALLY 3-5 FT MONDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME FIRMLY OFFSHORE. WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS...NO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. OVERALL  EXPECT LIGHT OFF
SHORE FLOW OR NORTHERLY THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT. LATE WED INTO THURS GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH
THURS AFTN INTO FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH WITH
DECENT COLD SURGE AND ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW. MAY SEE SEAS UP NEAR 4
TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER W-NW FLOW THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 222047
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN AND
REFORM ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AL/FL
GULF COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FL GULF
COAST...CROSSING NORTHERN FL AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ~1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN AL. A NORTHERN STREAM H5 SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED ENE FROM
OHIO TO CAPE COD INTO THE ATLANTIC. H5 RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AN H85 WARM FRONT WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIP UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA OVER GA/SC...NORTHERN AL AND TN. FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER
AL/TN APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE NEARBY UPPER LOW...WHEREAS
PRECIP OVER GA/SC APPEARS TO BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN
ADDITION TO WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
925-850 MB WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL AL/GA. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AL IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY TODAY
AS IT HAS BEEN...A TREND THAT FORECAST MODELS HAVE ANTICIPATED. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE PROG THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TODAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE TAIL END OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVER SOUTHWEST NC/NORTHERN GA BY ~00Z THIS EVENING.
FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE
APPROACH OF THE 925-850 MB WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
AFT/EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME GLANCING DPVA IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN ~00-06Z TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS AN
OPEN WAVE.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING...WHILE MORE MOIST (0.51" PWAT) THAN IT HAS
BEEN SINCE 00Z FRI...STILL CONTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 25C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 700 MB.
THE POINT HERE IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC IS
STILL RELATIVELY DRY. GIVEN THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...AND
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION MOVING
N/NE THROUGH CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC...THE ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE
WEST/SW PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROBABLY
REMAINING DRY THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CATEGORICAL (80-100%) POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM 06-12Z AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN PRONOUNCED
RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM ARE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH 0.10-0.25".
EXPECT A GOOD 0.25-0.50" OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF GREATER THAN 0.50" POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY
AROUND THE WETBULB...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO
LOWER 50S E/SE COASTAL PLAIN.

MONDAY:
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY
AS THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS N/NE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS/DELMARVA. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ON MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN NORTH/NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH MEASURABLE POPS
DECREASING/ENDING FROM SW-NE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ON MONDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.25"...WHILE THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST AS MUCH
AS AN ADDITIONAL 0.50" IN EAST (GEM) OR NORTHERN (NAM) PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE AFT/EVE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY 925-850 MB FLOW OVERRUNS THE STABLE CAD WEDGE IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS MONDAY AFT/EVE.
W/REGARD TO TEMPS...LATEST MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT TOO WARM IN OTHER LOCATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
DAMMING. HAVE DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO WHAT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...RANGING FROM 48F IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN OTHER WORDS...A DIURNAL RANGE OF ONLY 5F OR
LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE STABLE CAD WEDGE PROGGED BY FCST
SOUNDINGS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WANE MONDAY EVENING AS THE THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHUTS DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TREND FROM MONDAY OF
ENDING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
EVENING. THE DAMMING PARENT HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW
SEVERS THE PIEDMONT AIR MASS FROM THE PARENT HIGH... LEAVING BEHIND
A RESIDUAL COOL STABLE POOL OVER CENTRAL NC THAT IS NO LONGER
SUPPORTED BY A STEADY INFLUX OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STABLE AIR AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE PERSISTING IN THE LOWEST 2 KM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY... CAPPED BY A WARM/DRY/SUBSIDING AIR ABOVE 800 MB IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH WEAK AND LIGHTLY
DIFFLUENT MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS... WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SOLID OVERCAST AND
NO LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION... TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A CATEGORY
OR TWO FROM MONDAY`S HIGHS. LOWS 45-50. ON TUESDAY... BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION... BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE STACKED LOW DIGGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. THE NAM HAS THE LIGHTEST SURFACE WINDS... AND IS
ALSO WARMER IN THE CAPPING 850-700 MB LAYER... THUS INHIBITING
MIXING (BOTH HORIZONTALLY AND VERTICALLY) IN THE LOWEST 1 KM.
HEATING FROM ABOVE MAY START TO SLOWLY BURN OFF THE UPPER PORTION OF
THE MOIST STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER... BUT WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT 925 MB... THE WEDGE
AIR MASS SHOULD HOLD FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH CLOUDY
SKIES... HAVE CUT HIGHS BACK FURTHER TO 54-58.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: THE MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE MIDWEST
WOBBLES FROM OVER THE IA/MO BORDER UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING... AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC REMAINS WEAKLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS OVER CENTRAL NC BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
DEPICTS A WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE AT 925-850 MB PUSHING NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT... ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE
RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR MASS. THE NAM HOWEVER HAS A WEAKER WARM FRONT AT
850 MB... KEEPS SURFACE WINDS NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT... AND HOLDS A 925
MB TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN KEEPING THE MOIST AIR LOCKED
IN. GIVEN THE 12KM NAM`S BETTER TERRAIN DEPICTION AND THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN`S AGREEMENT ON WEAK TO CALM SURFACE WINDS... FAVOR
RETAINING THE WEDGE AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... ALONG WITH
AREAS OF FOG. LOWS 45-49. ON WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL LOW HEADS UP
TOWARD THE U.P. OF MI WHILE A SECOND POLAR VORTEX DROPS FROM LAKE
WINNIPEG SOUTH THROUGH IA. BUT VERY LITTLE APPEARS TO CHANGE OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH A CONTINUATION OF A LOW LEVEL COL ZONE WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTING CORRECTLY DEPICTING EROSION OF A DAMMING AIR
MASS THAT HAS LOST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND NO LONGER HAS ANY
CONNECTION TO A COOL DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOURCE... AND THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION. SINCE THIS AIR MASS SHOULD BE GETTING QUITE VULNERABLE BY
THIS POINT WITH THE ONLY BLOCKADE RESTRICTING DRAINAGE BEING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST... AND WITH 850 WINDS FINALLY BECOMING
WESTERLY PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE DRYING BY AFTERNOON... WILL INDICATE A
GRADUAL DISSOLUTION OF THE WEDGE AIR MASS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
62-66... CLOSE TO PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FACTORING IN
MORNING CLOUDS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE STILL-WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NO CLOUDS ABOVE SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. LOWS 42-47.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS DEEP
TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS OVER
NC. THE FIRST MID LEVEL LOW HEADS UP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE
THE SECOND LOW SWINGS FROM NORTHERN IL TOWARD LAKE ERIE... AND YET
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY AND
DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY. BASED ON AVERAGE TIMING AMONG THE MODELS... THIS LATTER
FEATURE BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURES OVER NORTHEAST NC AND EASTERN VA. WHILE IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF THIS STRONG WAVE DOES INDEED CLOSE OFF JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST
AS THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED... CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE AND ITS RATE OF DEEPENING... LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STEEPEN ENOUGH TO KICK OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK
AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN PLACE WITH NO OPPORTUNITY TO ADVECT ANY
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA... HOWEVER IF DYNAMIC LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH
IT COULD CONDENSE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION IN THIS SORT OF DYNAMICALLY
VIGOROUS PATTERN... AND IF IT OCCURS WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH
THESE SHOWERS. WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EXPECT HIGHS 60-65
THURSDAY... DROPPING TO 51-55 FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: QUIET AND MODERATING WEATHER AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW TRACKS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
QUICKLY TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND INITIALLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR EVERYWHERE BY 00-06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN AND
LOWERING CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL BEGIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ONCE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPS. LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SEE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION IF MORE SPECIFIC DETAIL IS NEEDED
W/REGARD TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT/MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STABLE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...A
CONTINUATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS WITH
PERIODS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA BEFORE SCOURING OUT...
AND AT LEAST ONE MODEL TRIES TO MIX THINGS OUT AS EARLY AS TUE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY WED AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE
STABLE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SCOURS OUT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 222018
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
317 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN. CLOUDY COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF WARM-UP...BUT A COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST OR A FREEZE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS JUST ABOUT UPON
US...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AND PLENTY OF PITFALLS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A LITTLE ACROSS SC
COUNTIES BUT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS DRY ACROSS MOST OF NC. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WILL
NOT ARRIVE IN COASTAL NC UNTIL AFTER 00Z...ONCE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL GA
SPREADING INTO SC AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST. SURFACE LOW WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST THIS EVENING...ON
THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN FL. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS IT
APPROACHES. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND CUTOFF PRECIP FOR THE AREA...SAVE FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. FAVOR A WETTER SOLUTION...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE 12Z
GFS/CANADIAN OR 00Z ECMWF. SCALED BACK QPF A LITTLE AS WELL AS
TWEAKING POP DISTRIBUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIP ENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...CHILLY WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS ENTIRE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS. THE
GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE SUPERIOR TO THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE
PATH OF THE LOW MONDAY. MODEL CHOICE HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE FORECAST MONDAY - THE NAM TRACKS THE LOW JUST ONSHORE AND
BRIEFLY BRINGS WILMINGTON INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDING FROM THE NAM 18Z MONDAY OVER WILMINGTON SHOWS 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE AND A SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 76! THIS IS NOT THE PREFERRED
MODEL SOLUTION AND HAS BEEN IGNORED IN FAVOR OF THE GFS.

THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MURKY
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WE HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THESE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FIT THE CONCEPTUAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLOUDY WEDGE BETTER THAN THE NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE STILL ON WED
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLOUDY AND COOL DAY. BY WED EVENING
COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AND LATEST GFS SHOWING
ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE GULF MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST WATERS THROUGH
THURS. DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AREA FROM THE WEST ON
THURS...COMBINING WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH TO
PRODUCE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF HATTERAS THROUGH THURS NIGHT AND
CONTINUING TO MOVE UP THE COAST AWAY FROM LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRI
WHILE PARENT LOW STILL HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE
MOST OF PCP WILL REMAIN OFF SHORE WITH POTENTIAL TO MAINLY AFFECT
COASTAL AREAS LATE WED INTO THURS WHEN COASTAL TROUGH/LOW REMAINS
CLOSEST TO CAROLINA COAST. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURS
PLENTY OF DRY AND COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT WHILE H5 LOW STILL
REMAINS BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPING W-SW FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THE
MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON FRI...DEEP LAYER NW FLOW WILL
USHER IN COLDEST AIR FRI THROUGH SAT. CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT ON
FRONT END OF STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH CAA
SHUTTING OFF AND RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT. OVERALL BEST CAA SHOULD OCCUR
THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BEGIN THE
DECLINE FROM NEAR 1360M DOWN TO NEAR 1310M BY FRI MORNING. 850 TEMPS
DROP BELOW 0 EARLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL HOLD CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WED AND THURS. BY LATE THURS INTO
FRI COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH WINDS HOLDING UP EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT FRI. MUCH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT BUT BEST CAA WILL HAVE
ENDED BY THEN BUT SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. POTENTIAL
FOR FROST OR POSSIBLY FREEZE WILL EXIST BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT.
DAY TIME HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT
OF THE 50S...ESPECIALLY INLAND. SHOULD SEE GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS REACHING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR STILL OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTN AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATION THROUGH THE COLUMN AS MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. FLO HAS FINALLY STARTED TO REPORT
-RA...AND SLOWLY THIS AFTN ALL TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT
RAIN. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSENSUS IN THIS EVENT...SO HAVE
PRIMARILY USED UPSTREAM OBS FOR THIS FORECAST.

EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH LBT
FINALLY RECEIVING RAIN BY 21Z. THE RAIN INTENSITY HAS BEEN LIGHT
UPSTREAM...SO THE COLUMN IS SATURATING VERY SLOWLY. EVEN THOUGH
CIGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTN...EXPECT VFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH 00Z
ALTHOUGH FLO MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS BEFORE THEN. TONIGHT CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY AS NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL CONTINUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN.
HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF IFR A BIT TO AFTER 06Z BASED ON DRYNESS OF
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...IT WILL JUST TAKE SO LONG TO SATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS. ONCE IFR FINALLY SETS IN TONIGHT...IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. THE TERMINALS MAY REMAIN UNDER IFR CIGS MOST OF
THE DAY TOMORROW EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KT FROM THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY TURNING TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AS
THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR MONDAY POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. IFR FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXPERIENCE A
SLIGHT INCREASE THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA COAST. STILL THINK SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 25 KT...BUT SEAS WILL EXCEED SCA THRESHOLDS DUE TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
FOUND AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OFF CAPE
ROMAIN. AS LOW PASSES JUST EAST OF THE WATERS...VERY CLOSE TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. LIGHTER SPEEDS AND OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KNOCK A
LITTLE HEIGHT OFF SEAS WITHIN 20 NM...DROPPING SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. DID NOT ALTER END TIME FOR ONGOING SCA BUT IT MAY END UP
BEING TWEAKED BY A FEW HOURS IN EITHER DIRECTION WHEN DETAILS
SURROUNDING THE SURFACE LOW BECOME CLEARER.

SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED MONDAY MORNING
VERY CLOSE TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS TOWER. BY MONDAY EVENING THE
LOW WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF HATTERAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SPREADING OVER THE WATERS. IN FACT WE
WILL MAINTAIN THESE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS WITH CLOUDY COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ANY
RAINFALL MONDAY WILL CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN DRIZZLE SHOULD NOT
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM.

SEAS INITIALLY 3-5 FT MONDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME FIRMLY OFFSHORE. WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS...NO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. OVERALL  EXPECT LIGHT OFF
SHORE FLOW OR NORTHERLY THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT. LATE WED INTO THURS GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH
THURS AFTN INTO FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH WITH
DECENT COLD SURGE AND ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW. MAY SEE SEAS UP NEAR 4
TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER W-NW FLOW THURS NIGHT THROUGH
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JW

000
FXUS62 KRAH 222002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AL/FL
GULF COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FL GULF
COAST...CROSSING NORTHERN FL AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ~1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN AL. A NORTHERN STREAM H5 SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED ENE FROM
OHIO TO CAPE COD INTO THE ATLANTIC. H5 RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AN H85 WARM FRONT WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIP UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA OVER GA/SC...NORTHERN AL AND TN. FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER
AL/TN APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE NEARBY UPPER LOW...WHEREAS
PRECIP OVER GA/SC APPEARS TO BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN
ADDITION TO WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
925-850 MB WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL AL/GA. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AL IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY TODAY
AS IT HAS BEEN...A TREND THAT FORECAST MODELS HAVE ANTICIPATED. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE PROG THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TODAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE TAIL END OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVER SOUTHWEST NC/NORTHERN GA BY ~00Z THIS EVENING.
FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE
APPROACH OF THE 925-850 MB WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
AFT/EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME GLANCING DPVA IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN ~00-06Z TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS AN
OPEN WAVE.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING...WHILE MORE MOIST (0.51" PWAT) THAN IT HAS
BEEN SINCE 00Z FRI...STILL CONTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 25C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 700 MB.
THE POINT HERE IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC IS
STILL RELATIVELY DRY. GIVEN THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...AND
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION MOVING
N/NE THROUGH CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC...THE ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE
WEST/SW PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROBABLY
REMAINING DRY THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CATEGORICAL (80-100%) POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM 06-12Z AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN PRONOUNCED
RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM ARE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH 0.10-0.25".
EXPECT A GOOD 0.25-0.50" OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF GREATER THAN 0.50" POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY
AROUND THE WETBULB...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO
LOWER 50S E/SE COASTAL PLAIN.

MONDAY:
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY
AS THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS N/NE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS/DELMARVA. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ON MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN NORTH/NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH MEASURABLE POPS
DECREASING/ENDING FROM SW-NE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ON MONDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.25"...WHILE THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST AS MUCH
AS AN ADDITIONAL 0.50" IN EAST (GEM) OR NORTHERN (NAM) PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE AFT/EVE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY 925-850 MB FLOW OVERRUNS THE STABLE CAD WEDGE IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS MONDAY AFT/EVE.
W/REGARD TO TEMPS...LATEST MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT TOO WARM IN OTHER LOCATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
DAMMING. HAVE DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO WHAT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...RANGING FROM 48F IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN OTHER WORDS...A DIURNAL RANGE OF ONLY 5F OR
LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE STABLE CAD WEDGE PROGGED BY FCST
SOUNDINGS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY WANE MONDAY EVENING AS THE THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS SLOWLY
FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND THE
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHUTS DOWN. WILL CONTINUE TREND FROM MONDAY OF
ENDING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
EVENING. THE DAMMING PARENT HIGH SHIFTS EAST OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL LOW
SEVERS THE PIEDMONT AIR MASS FROM THE PARENT HIGH... LEAVING BEHIND
A RESIDUAL COOL STABLE POOL OVER CENTRAL NC THAT IS NO LONGER
SUPPORTED BY A STEADY INFLUX OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STABLE AIR AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE PERSISTING IN THE LOWEST 2 KM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY... CAPPED BY A WARM/DRY/SUBSIDING AIR ABOVE 800 MB IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH WEAK AND LIGHTLY
DIFFLUENT MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS... WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SOLID OVERCAST AND
NO LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION... TEMPS SHOULD MOVE ONLY A CATEGORY
OR TWO FROM MONDAY`S HIGHS. LOWS 45-50. ON TUESDAY... BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION... BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE STACKED LOW DIGGING
OVER THE MIDWEST. THE NAM HAS THE LIGHTEST SURFACE WINDS... AND IS
ALSO WARMER IN THE CAPPING 850-700 MB LAYER... THUS INHIBITING
MIXING (BOTH HORIZONTALLY AND VERTICALLY) IN THE LOWEST 1 KM.
HEATING FROM ABOVE MAY START TO SLOWLY BURN OFF THE UPPER PORTION OF
THE MOIST STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER... BUT WITH WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW AT 925 MB... THE WEDGE
AIR MASS SHOULD HOLD FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH CLOUDY
SKIES... HAVE CUT HIGHS BACK FURTHER TO 54-58.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: THE MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER THE MIDWEST
WOBBLES FROM OVER THE IA/MO BORDER UP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING... AND MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC REMAINS WEAKLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW LEVELS BETWEEN THE NAM AND
GFS OVER CENTRAL NC BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
DEPICTS A WEAK WARM FRONTAL ZONE AT 925-850 MB PUSHING NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT... ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE
RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR MASS. THE NAM HOWEVER HAS A WEAKER WARM FRONT AT
850 MB... KEEPS SURFACE WINDS NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT... AND HOLDS A 925
MB TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN KEEPING THE MOIST AIR LOCKED
IN. GIVEN THE 12KM NAM`S BETTER TERRAIN DEPICTION AND THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN`S AGREEMENT ON WEAK TO CALM SURFACE WINDS... FAVOR
RETAINING THE WEDGE AIR MASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... ALONG WITH
AREAS OF FOG. LOWS 45-49. ON WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL LOW HEADS UP
TOWARD THE U.P. OF MI WHILE A SECOND POLAR VORTEX DROPS FROM LAKE
WINNIPEG SOUTH THROUGH IA. BUT VERY LITTLE APPEARS TO CHANGE OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH A CONTINUATION OF A LOW LEVEL COL ZONE WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM SURFACE WINDS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTING CORRECTLY DEPICTING EROSION OF A DAMMING AIR
MASS THAT HAS LOST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND NO LONGER HAS ANY
CONNECTION TO A COOL DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOURCE... AND THIS CASE IS NO
EXCEPTION. SINCE THIS AIR MASS SHOULD BE GETTING QUITE VULNERABLE BY
THIS POINT WITH THE ONLY BLOCKADE RESTRICTING DRAINAGE BEING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST... AND WITH 850 WINDS FINALLY BECOMING
WESTERLY PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE DRYING BY AFTERNOON... WILL INDICATE A
GRADUAL DISSOLUTION OF THE WEDGE AIR MASS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
62-66... CLOSE TO PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FACTORING IN
MORNING CLOUDS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THE STILL-WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NO CLOUDS ABOVE SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. LOWS 42-47.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS DEEP
TROUGHING CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS OVER
NC. THE FIRST MID LEVEL LOW HEADS UP THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO WHILE
THE SECOND LOW SWINGS FROM NORTHERN IL TOWARD LAKE ERIE... AND YET
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DROPS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY AND
DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY. BASED ON AVERAGE TIMING AMONG THE MODELS... THIS LATTER
FEATURE BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURES OVER NORTHEAST NC AND EASTERN VA. WHILE IT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN IF THIS STRONG WAVE DOES INDEED CLOSE OFF JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST
AS THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWED... CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE AND ITS RATE OF DEEPENING... LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
STEEPEN ENOUGH TO KICK OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK
AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN PLACE WITH NO OPPORTUNITY TO ADVECT ANY
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA... HOWEVER IF DYNAMIC LIFT IS STRONG ENOUGH
IT COULD CONDENSE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF A STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION IN THIS SORT OF DYNAMICALLY
VIGOROUS PATTERN... AND IF IT OCCURS WE COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH
THESE SHOWERS. WILL INCLUDE LOW CHANCE POPS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. EXPECT HIGHS 60-65
THURSDAY... DROPPING TO 51-55 FRIDAY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: QUIET AND MODERATING WEATHER AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW TRACKS UP INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
QUICKLY TO OUR EAST FOLLOWED BY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WILL TREND INITIALLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR EVERYWHERE BY 00-06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN AND
LOWERING CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL BEGIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ONCE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPS. LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SEE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION IF MORE SPECIFIC DETAIL IS NEEDED
W/REGARD TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT/MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STABLE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...A
CONTINUATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS WITH
PERIODS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA BEFORE SCOURING OUT...
AND AT LEAST ONE MODEL TRIES TO MIX THINGS OUT AS EARLY AS TUE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY WED AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE
STABLE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SCOURS OUT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 221948
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
248 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE UP THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN. CLOUDY COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF WARM-UP...BUT A COLD FRONT LATE
THURSDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FROST OR A FREEZE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE EVENT IS JUST ABOUT UPON
US...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AND PLENTY OF PITFALLS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE DOWN THE COAST WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A LITTLE ACROSS SC
COUNTIES BUT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS DRY ACROSS MOST OF NC. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST MEASURABLE RAIN PROBABLY WILL
NOT ARRIVE IN COASTAL NC UNTIL AFTER 00Z...ONCE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL GA
SPREADING INTO SC AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
COAST. SURFACE LOW WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST THIS EVENING...ON
THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN FL. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA AS IT
APPROACHES. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF
COAST WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND CUTOFF PRECIP FOR THE AREA...SAVE FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. FAVOR A WETTER SOLUTION...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE 12Z
GFS/CANADIAN OR 00Z ECMWF. SCALED BACK QPF A LITTLE AS WELL AS
TWEAKING POP DISTRIBUTION TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIP ENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...CHILLY WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS ENTIRE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINTAINING THE COOL WEDGE CONDITIONS. THE
GFS MODEL APPEARS TO BE SUPERIOR TO THE NAM WITH RESPECT TO THE
PATH OF THE LOW MONDAY. MODEL CHOICE HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS
FOR THE FORECAST MONDAY - THE NAM TRACKS THE LOW JUST ONSHORE AND
BRIEFLY BRINGS WILMINGTON INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDING FROM THE NAM 18Z MONDAY OVER WILMINGTON SHOWS 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE AND A SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 76! THIS IS NOT THE PREFERRED
MODEL SOLUTION AND HAS BEEN IGNORED IN FAVOR OF THE GFS.

THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...SHUTTING OFF THE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. RAIN WILL SHUT OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MURKY
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AND PERHAPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WE HAVE GONE VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THESE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FIT THE CONCEPTUAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH A CLOUDY WEDGE BETTER THAN THE NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LONG TERM PD WILL BE
RAIN-FREE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 70 AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR SOME TIME ON TURKEY DAY. COOL AIR
WILL POUR IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH OCCLUDES A CYCLONE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR STILL OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTN AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATION THROUGH THE COLUMN AS MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. FLO HAS FINALLY STARTED TO REPORT
-RA...AND SLOWLY THIS AFTN ALL TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT
RAIN. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSENSUS IN THIS EVENT...SO HAVE
PRIMARILY USED UPSTREAM OBS FOR THIS FORECAST.

EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH LBT
FINALLY RECEIVING RAIN BY 21Z. THE RAIN INTENSITY HAS BEEN LIGHT
UPSTREAM...SO THE COLUMN IS SATURATING VERY SLOWLY. EVEN THOUGH
CIGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTN...EXPECT VFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH 00Z
ALTHOUGH FLO MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS BEFORE THEN. TONIGHT CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY AS NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL CONTINUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN.
HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF IFR A BIT TO AFTER 06Z BASED ON DRYNESS OF
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...IT WILL JUST TAKE SO LONG TO SATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS. ONCE IFR FINALLY SETS IN TONIGHT...IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. THE TERMINALS MAY REMAIN UNDER IFR CIGS MOST OF
THE DAY TOMORROW EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KT FROM THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY TURNING TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AS
THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR MONDAY POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. IFR FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXPERIENCE A
SLIGHT INCREASE THIS EVENING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GA COAST. STILL THINK SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 25 KT...BUT SEAS WILL EXCEED SCA THRESHOLDS DUE TO
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
FOUND AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OFF CAPE
ROMAIN. AS LOW PASSES JUST EAST OF THE WATERS...VERY CLOSE TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. LIGHTER SPEEDS AND OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL KNOCK A
LITTLE HEIGHT OFF SEAS WITHIN 20 NM...DROPPING SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. DID NOT ALTER END TIME FOR ONGOING SCA BUT IT MAY END UP
BEING TWEAKED BY A FEW HOURS IN EITHER DIRECTION WHEN DETAILS
SURROUNDING THE SURFACE LOW BECOME CLEARER.

SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED MONDAY MORNING
VERY CLOSE TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS TOWER. BY MONDAY EVENING THE
LOW WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH OF HATTERAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SPREADING OVER THE WATERS. IN FACT WE
WILL MAINTAIN THESE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS WITH CLOUDY COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ANY
RAINFALL MONDAY WILL CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN DRIZZLE SHOULD NOT
BECOME A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM.

SEAS INITIALLY 3-5 FT MONDAY MORNING WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME FIRMLY OFFSHORE. WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS...NO ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAP WINDS
LOCALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS
REALIZED. SLIGHT VEERING IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP. THE WORST OF THE MARINE WEATHER
WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN A
MODERATELY STRONG COOL SURGE WITH GRADIENT PINCH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JW

000
FXUS62 KMHX 221936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
236 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST TO JUST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE
LOW MOVES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEDGE FINALLY ERODING OVER THE AREA AND ALLOWING LOW AND MID
LVL MOISTURE TO INFILTRATE THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN. SOLID
CLOUD SHIELD NOW SPREADING OVER THE AREA AND LEADING EDGE OF PCPN
NOW PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
DURING THE EVE HOURS AND WILL CONT CAT POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE
OVERNGT FCST PERIOD. RAIN COOLED AIR ALLOWS TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
50-55F DEG RANGE MOST AREAS OVRNGT EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA COME DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM S TO N
AS MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO VA.
FCST QPF REMAINS GENERALLY BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE WILL BE
AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL SHUD NOT
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK
HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL DRAW IN
SOME OCEAN WARMTH PARTICULARLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. A WIDE RANGE
IN HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY RESULT WITH UPPER 50S WELL INLAND AND UPPER
60S PSBL AT THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC NAM SOLUTION MON NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE WITH
STRONG WEDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LIMITED DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES AND KEPT SKIES MOCLDY TO CLDY THRU THIS
PERIOD. ALSO INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
MOIST NOCTURNAL ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NAM KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOCKED IN ON WED. WILL TREND CLOUDIER
AND COOLER BUT LOW LEVEL WEDGE SHUD BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES OVER. THIS SHUD ALLOW AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 60S.

A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT
AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS
HEELS THU NIGHT. DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP EAST COAST TROF SIGNALS DRY
AND COOL WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE IS WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES NE INTO TN/W NC...HOWEVER CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF IT WILL
BEING TO FILL INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE GA/SC COAST OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN RESPONSE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
DROP WITH LIGHT RA/DZ BEGINNING MAINLY AFT MIDNIGHT. BY EARLY
MORNING COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO
400-700 FT. LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MON AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES. THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL LINGER
INTO MON NT. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN INTO TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT. BY
WED ANOTHER COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION LATE AND INTO THU...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD
FRONT FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...HIGH PRES CONTINUED TO NOSE S OVER THE REGION
KEEPING A PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THERE WILL BE LITTLE VARIATION IN
THE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. BUT AFT MIDNIGHT A DEVELOPING
LOW OFF THE SC/GA COAST WILL BEGIN TO PINCH THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION...AND WINDS MAY PICK UP A FEW KNOTS TO SUSTAINED 20KT.
THE NAM IS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS SFC FEATURE THAN THE
GFS...TRACKING IT THROUGH THE SOUNDS MON. THE GFS KEEPS IT
OFFSHORE...SLOWER AND WEAKER. THE GFS IS THE PREFER ED MODEL SO
HAVE LEANED PREV FCST IN THIS DIRECTION. THE WEAKER WINDS WILL
LIKELY NOT PUT SCA CONDITIONS INTO THE SOUNDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
CARRY SUSTAINED 20KT AND SCEC. AS THE LOW MOVES E MON AFT IT IS
FCST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES N...PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS AND
HIGHER SEAS TO WATERS WELL N OF OBX. THE DEVELOPING NE FLOW BEHIND
THE LOW WILL DRIVE SOME OF THAT ENERGY S...KEEPING SCA SEAS IN OUR
N WATERS THROUGH LATE MON. BY THU ANOTHER DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
WILL NOT PRODUCE NOTABLE WINDS/SEAS AS IT PASSES THE REGION ON
THU...BUT IT IS EXP TO STRENGTHEN N OF DELMARVA. A STRONG COLD
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
FRI MORNING...WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI/FRI NT AND
POTENTIALLY INTO SAT DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR HIGH
PRES TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT. HAVE INCREASED CONDITIONS TO STRONG
SCA AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT COULD
SEE POTENTIAL GALE WARNINGS LATE THE FCST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ

000
FXUS62 KILM 221724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1223 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WEAKENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY BRINGING STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN IS HAVING TROUBLE MAKING MUCH
NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING STRONG. VERY DRY AIR
BELOW 10K FT WILL PREVENT MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP FROM REACHING
THE GROUND UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. FAR NORTHEAST LOCATIONS MAY NOT
SEE ANY PRECIP UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK AS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS...SO TEMPS MAY END UP A
LITTLE WARMER ACROSS COASTAL NC. INLAND SC MAY END UP WITH THE
OPPOSITE PROBLEM. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WERE COOLER THAN EXPECTED...SO
READINGS STARTED OUT LOWER. ALSO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM PRECIP
FALLING INTO THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY END UP KEEPING HIGHS CLOSER
TO 50. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY. EVEN LOWER LEVEL
FORCING...295K UPGLIDE...WILL DO THE SAME BUT NOT UNTIL MIDDAY.
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS TAPER FROM S TO N BUT LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER EVEN AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
DRY OUT RATHER STRONGLY. THERE IS NOTHING TO ROUT OUT THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS A VERY ILL DEFINED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NEAR ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER BELOW THE DESCENDING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LINGER ON TUESDAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CAUSE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
IF THESE BREAKS ARE ADEQUATE THEN MIXING WILL THEN TAKE
OVER...RAISE THE CLOUD BASE...AND THEN MIX OUT THE MOISTURE WITH
THE DRY AIR ABOVE. THIS IS THE BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY
HIGHS...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS. WITHOUT
ANY NORTHEASTERLY RE-ENFORCING FLOW OF COOL/MOIST AIR WILL TREND
TOWARDS THE HIGHER NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LONG TERM PD WILL BE
RAIN-FREE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 70 AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR SOME TIME ON TURKEY DAY. COOL AIR
WILL POUR IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH OCCLUDES A CYCLONE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18 SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR STILL OCCURRING AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTN AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATION THROUGH THE COLUMN AS MOISTURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. FLO HAS FINALLY STARTED TO REPORT
-RA...AND SLOWLY THIS AFTN ALL TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO SEE LIGHT
RAIN. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSENSUS IN THIS EVENT...SO HAVE
PRIMARILY USED UPSTREAM OBS FOR THIS FORECAST.

EXPECT RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH LBT
FINALLY RECEIVING RAIN BY 21Z. THE RAIN INTENSITY HAS BEEN LIGHT
UPSTREAM...SO THE COLUMN IS SATURATING VERY SLOWLY. EVEN THOUGH
CIGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTN...EXPECT VFR EVERYWHERE THROUGH 00Z
ALTHOUGH FLO MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS BEFORE THEN. TONIGHT CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY AS NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL CONTINUALLY SATURATE THE COLUMN.
HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF IFR A BIT TO AFTER 06Z BASED ON DRYNESS OF
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...IT WILL JUST TAKE SO LONG TO SATURATE
THE LOWEST LEVELS. ONCE IFR FINALLY SETS IN TONIGHT...IT WILL BE
TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. THE TERMINALS MAY REMAIN UNDER IFR CIGS MOST OF
THE DAY TOMORROW EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KT FROM THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...SLOWLY TURNING TO THE SOUTH TOMORROW AS
THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR MONDAY POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. IFR FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS
CONTINUES. CURRENTLY ONLY NC WATERS APPEAR TO BE MEETING
CRITERIA...AND THIS IS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE
GA/SC COAST AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MINIMAL CHANGES WITH MORNING
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
OFFSHORE AND DECREASING WINDS WILL BRING SUBSIDING WIND WAVES. A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO SETTLE MORE QUICKLY INTO THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE. LONG
TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... WEAK HIGH
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAP WINDS LOCALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS REALIZED. SLIGHT VEERING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE WORST OF THE MARINE WEATHER WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN A MODERATELY STRONG COOL SURGE WITH
GRADIENT PINCH.

LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
WEAK HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAP WINDS LOCALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
AS A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS REALIZED. SLIGHT VEERING IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE WORST OF THE MARINE WEATHER WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN A MODERATELY STRONG COOL SURGE WITH
GRADIENT PINCH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KRAH 221716
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1216 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE AL/FL
GULF COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FL GULF
COAST...CROSSING NORTHERN FL AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ~1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN AL. A NORTHERN STREAM H5 SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED ENE FROM
OHIO TO CAPE COD INTO THE ATLANTIC. H5 RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AN H85 WARM FRONT WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIP UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA OVER GA/SC...NORTHERN AL AND TN. FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER
AL/TN APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE NEARBY UPPER LOW...WHEREAS
PRECIP OVER GA/SC APPEARS TO BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN
ADDITION TO WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/NORTH OF THE
925-850 MB WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL AL/GA. THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AL IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY TODAY
AS IT HAS BEEN...A TREND THAT FORECAST MODELS HAVE ANTICIPATED. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE PROG THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE TODAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE TAIL END OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVER SOUTHWEST NC/NORTHERN GA BY ~00Z THIS EVENING.
FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE
APPROACH OF THE 925-850 MB WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
AFT/EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME GLANCING DPVA IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN ~00-06Z TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS AN
OPEN WAVE.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S ACROSS CENTRAL
NC. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING...WHILE MORE MOIST (0.51" PWAT) THAN IT HAS
BEEN SINCE 00Z FRI...STILL CONTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 25C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 700 MB.
THE POINT HERE IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC IS
STILL RELATIVELY DRY. GIVEN THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...AND
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION MOVING
N/NE THROUGH CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC...THE ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE
WEST/SW PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROBABLY
REMAINING DRY THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CATEGORICAL (80-100%) POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM 06-12Z AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN PRONOUNCED
RIDGING FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER A BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM ARE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH 0.10-0.25".
EXPECT A GOOD 0.25-0.50" OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF GREATER THAN 0.50" POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY
AROUND THE WETBULB...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO
LOWER 50S E/SE COASTAL PLAIN.

MONDAY:
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY
AS THE 925-850MB WARM FRONT LIFTS N/NE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS/DELMARVA. AS SUCH...THE HIGHEST POPS ON MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN NORTH/NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH MEASURABLE POPS
DECREASING/ENDING FROM SW-NE BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIP
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN ON MONDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF
SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.25"...WHILE THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST AS MUCH
AS AN ADDITIONAL 0.50" IN EAST (GEM) OR NORTHERN (NAM) PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE BEST WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE AFT/EVE...WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AS
SOUTHWESTERLY 925-850 MB FLOW OVERRUNS THE STABLE CAD WEDGE IN PLACE
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE
WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER MEASURABLE PRECIP ENDS MONDAY AFT/EVE.
W/REGARD TO TEMPS...LATEST MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...BUT TOO WARM IN OTHER LOCATIONS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
DAMMING. HAVE DECIDED TO TREND HIGHS CLOSER TO WHAT FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST...RANGING FROM 48F IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER/MID 50S
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN OTHER WORDS...A DIURNAL RANGE OF ONLY 5F OR
LESS IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE STABLE CAD WEDGE PROGGED BY FCST
SOUNDINGS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NE...ALTHOUGH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FROM THE SW MAY LIKELY PROLONG SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE THROUGH TUES MORNING.  EVEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOURCE REMOVED FROM NEW ENGLAND...THE CAD EDGE AIRMASS MAY LINGER
WELL INTO TUESDAY (DEPENDING ON PRIOR RAINFALL). MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A MORE PERSISTENT CAD AIRMASS...WITH THE GFS NOT SURPRISINGLY
ERODING THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MORE QUICKLY.  THUS...A TOUGH
CALL AT THE MOMENT ON TUESDAYS HIGHS.  HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS...NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH WHERE...IF
NOTHING ELSE...CAD EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LAST. 57-63 N TO S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY

IN GENERAL FAVORING THE SLOWER MORE NORTH SOLUTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF
OVER THE GFS... BUT OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SLIGHTLY SMALLER
RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS... DIFFERENCES RELATIVELY SMALL IN NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE BEST...THOUGH TINY CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A
WEAK 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING MINIMAL
LIFT. EXPECTING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING... AND COASTAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TO OUR EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY TRACKS EAST... WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY... A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A SIGNIFICANT NEARBY
SURFACE LOW MAY MAKE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT. OTHER THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS EXCEEDING 1350 METERS AT GREENSBORO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...DECLINING TO MID 50S
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS... THEN LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD:
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OVER ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR EVERYWHERE BY 00-06Z TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN AND
LOWERING CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL BEGIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. ONCE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE DEVELOPS. LIFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SEE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION IF MORE SPECIFIC DETAIL IS NEEDED
W/REGARD TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT/MONDAY.

MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STABLE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT...A
CONTINUATION OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS WITH
PERIODS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO
HOW LONG THE WEDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA BEFORE SCOURING OUT...
AND AT LEAST ONE MODEL TRIES TO MIX THINGS OUT AS EARLY AS TUE
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY WED AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THE
STABLE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SCOURS OUT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KMHX 221554
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1054 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY WEDGE HAS CONTINUED TO DELAY LOW AND MID LVL MOISTURE ARRIVAL
OVR THE FCST AREA THIS MORN. SOLID CLOUD SHIELD NOW SPREADING
NORTH OF SC/NC BORDER BUT TEMPS SHUD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE LOW
POSSIBLY MID 60S BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUD ARRIVAL. ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN OVER THE AREA AS WEAKENING SRT
WAVE APPROACHES WITH CSTL TRF DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE. DELAYED
THE ONSET OF RAIN A FEW HOURS TO THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS
AS IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE SUB CLOUD LEVEL.
LOWERED POPS TO CHC INLAND AND S TO NO POP NE SECTION FOR THIS
AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY ..RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS
INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. CSTL
FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT ALTHO IT
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN TO REACH FAR NE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S CST.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N MON AS MAIN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO VA. HOWEVER EXPECT THERE WILL STILL
BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. FCST QPF REMAIN GENERALLY
BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND
PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF
THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH ALLOWING
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DESPITE THE
RAIN.

FOLLOWED THE NAM SOLUTION MON NIGHT WHICH KEEPS LOW LVL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PROB SOME DRIZZLE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 40S INLAND TO UPR 50S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...AGAIN LEANED TOWARD NAM ON TUESDAY WHICH
WOULD FAVOR PLENTY CLOUDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUN. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A CPL DGRS AND NOW EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60.

SHUD STILL BE ABLE TO ECK OUT A NICE DAY WED (WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S) BEFORE CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA.

A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT
AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS
HEELS THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKND TO BE DRY
AND COOL AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LCL IFR AT KPGV EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW VFR WILL PREVAIL ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.

IFR WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON. LOW PRES WILL DEPART MON
NIGHT BUT LOW LVL MSTR LIKELY TO REMAIN...RESULTING IN IFR CIGS
PSBLY INTO WED. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THU WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING IN.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRAD RELAXING SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S. SEAS REMAINING
AROUND 6 FEET THOSE AREAS AS WELL. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW
MUCH GRAD WILL RELAX TODAY AND MAINLY CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH
STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. GRAD EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM SW. MODELS
LIKELY SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH STRENGTH OF LOW...THUS CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST OF SCA WINDS...AND POSTED SCA FOR ALB AND PAM SOUNDS
AS WELL. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NRN WATERS MON
WHILE WINDS DECREASE REST OF AREA WITH LOW PRES CENTER MOVING
ACROSS. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH CAA IN WAKE OF LOW PRES
BUT THEN DIMINISH TUE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR WED-THU DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES...COULD HAVE ANOTHER LOW PRES MOVE ALONG COAST
THU.

BLEND OF SWAN AND WW3 FOR SEAS IN SHORT TERM...THEN WW3 REST OF
PERIOD. SCA SEAS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER NRN WATERS UNTIL EARLY TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JBM
MARINE...JBM

000
FXUS62 KRAH 221516
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1016 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1000 AM SUNDAY...

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE LA/MS
GULF COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FL GULF
COAST...CROSSING NORTHERN FL AND EXTENDING NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN AL/MS. A NORTHERN STREAM H5 SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED ENE
FROM OHIO TO CAPE COD INTO THE ATLANTIC. H5 RIDGING WAS NOTED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN H85 WARM FRONT WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIP UPSTREAM OF
THE AREA OVER GA/FL...NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN TN. FORCING FOR
PRECIP OVER AL/TN APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE NEARBY UPPER
LOW...WHEREAS PRECIP OVER GA APPEARS TO BE A COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC
ASCENT IN ADDITION TO WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/NORTH OF
THE 925-850 MB WARM FRONT ANALYZED OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA. THE UPPER
LOW OVER AL/GA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE IN WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS IT
HAS BEEN...A TREND THAT FORECAST MODELS HAVE ANTICIPATED. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE PROG THE UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE
TODAY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE TAIL END OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS OVER SOUTHWEST NC/NORTHERN GA BY ~00Z THIS EVENING.
FORCING FOR PRECIP OVER CENTRAL NC WILL BE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE
APPROACH OF THE 925-850 MB WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS
AFT/EVE...WITH PERHAPS SOME GLANCING DPVA IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BETWEEN ~00-06Z TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

LATEST SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S (NW) TO MID 40S
(E/SE) ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING...WHILE MORE MOIST
(0.51" PWAT) THAN IT HAS BEEN SINCE 00Z FRI...STILL CONTAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 25C
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT 700 MB. THE POINT HERE IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL
AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY. GIVEN THE DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PRECIP
ASSOC/W WARM ADVECTION JUST MAKING IT ACROSS THE SC BORDER AS OF
15Z...THE ONSET OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTH/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PROBABLY REMAINING DRY THROUGH 00Z THIS
EVENING. VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CATEGORICAL
(80-100%) POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 00-12Z TONIGHT...WITH THE
MOST VIGOROUS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 06-12Z AS THE
HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN PRONOUNCED RIDGING FROM THE NORTH
AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A
BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM THE
ECMWF/NAM/GEM ARE IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER WITH 0.10-0.25". EXPECT A GOOD 0.25-0.50"
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN 0.50"
POSSIBLE.

TEMP FCST TODAY SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
POCKETS OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD LATER THIS AFT/EVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...THE
ONSET OF PRECIP IN ANY LOCATION WILL DROP TEMPS TOWARD WETBULB
VALUES...FURTHER COMPLICATING THE TEMP FORECAST...PRIMARILY IN THE
SW PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WHERE THE ONSET OF PRECIP WILL BEGIN
SOMEWHERE AROUND PEAK HEATING. AT THIS POINT HAVE DECIDED TO
CONTINUE WITH A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND ALTERED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TEMPS...WITH A RANGE OF 54-60F...COOLEST WEST/SW AND WARMEST E/NE.
WITH ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD HOLD
STEADY AROUND THE WETBULB...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NW
PIEDMONT TO LOWER 50S E/SE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT

MONDAY:
WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED RISE
MUCH...ESPECIALLY DEEPER INTO THE CAD COLD POOL.  HIGHS RANGING FROM
49-58 NW TO SE. -BLS

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NE...ALTHOUGH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FROM THE SW MAY LIKELY PROLONG SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE THROUGH TUES MORNING.  EVEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOURCE REMOVED FROM NEW ENGLAND...THE CAD EDGE AIRMASS MAY LINGER
WELL INTO TUESDAY (DEPENDING ON PRIOR RAINFALL). MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A MORE PERSISTENT CAD AIRMASS...WITH THE GFS NOT SURPRISINGLY
ERODING THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MORE QUICKLY.  THUS...A TOUGH
CALL AT THE MOMENT ON TUESDAYS HIGHS.  HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS...NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH WHERE...IF
NOTHING ELSE...CAD EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LAST.  57-63 N TO S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY

IN GENERAL FAVORING THE SLOWER MORE NORTH SOLUTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF
OVER THE GFS... BUT OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SLIGHTLY SMALLER
RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS... DIFFERENCES RELATIVELY SMALL IN NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE BEST...THOUGH TINY CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A
WEAK 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING MINIMAL
LIFT. EXPECTING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING... AND COASTAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TO OUR EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY TRACKS EAST... WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY... A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A SIGNIFICANT NEARBY
SURFACE LOW MAY MAKE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT. OTHER THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS EXCEEDING 1350 METERS AT GREENSBORO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...DECLINING TO MID 50S
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS... THEN LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...

MID LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AND TAF SITES SHOULD NOT SEE
MEASURABLE RAIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
UNTIL THEN... THEN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN
RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH BY MID MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MVFR FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

000
FXUS62 KILM 221456
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
956 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WEAKENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY BRINGING STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN IS HAVING TROUBLE MAKING MUCH
NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING STRONG. VERY DRY AIR
BELOW 10K FT WILL PREVENT MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP FROM REACHING
THE GROUND UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. FAR NORTHEAST LOCATIONS MAY NOT
SEE ANY PRECIP UNTIL THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER IS NOT AS THICK AS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST AREAS...SO TEMPS MAY END UP A
LITTLE WARMER ACROSS COASTAL NC. INLAND SC MAY END UP WITH THE
OPPOSITE PROBLEM. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WERE COOLER THAN EXPECTED...SO
READINGS STARTED OUT LOWER. ALSO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM PRECIP
FALLING INTO THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY END UP KEEPING HIGHS CLOSER
TO 50. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY. EVEN LOWER LEVEL
FORCING...295K UPGLIDE...WILL DO THE SAME BUT NOT UNTIL MIDDAY.
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS TAPER FROM S TO N BUT LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER EVEN AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
DRY OUT RATHER STRONGLY. THERE IS NOTHING TO ROUT OUT THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS A VERY ILL DEFINED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NEAR ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER BELOW THE DESCENDING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LINGER ON TUESDAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CAUSE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
IF THESE BREAKS ARE ADEQUATE THEN MIXING WILL THEN TAKE
OVER...RAISE THE CLOUD BASE...AND THEN MIX OUT THE MOISTURE WITH
THE DRY AIR ABOVE. THIS IS THE BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY
HIGHS...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS. WITHOUT
ANY NORTHEASTERLY RE-ENFORCING FLOW OF COOL/MOIST AIR WILL TREND
TOWARDS THE HIGHER NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LONG TERM PD WILL BE
RAIN-FREE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 70 AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR SOME TIME ON TURKEY DAY. COOL AIR
WILL POUR IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH OCCLUDES A CYCLONE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN
TODAY AS A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY TONIGHT.

VFR EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WEATHER. THIS WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FIRST EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BE
BKN TO OVC CIGS AT 12K FEET...QUICKLY FALLING TO 5K FEET AT THE
INVERSION LEVEL AS VIRGA SATURATES THE COLUMN. TIMING THIS EVENT IS
TRICKY...BUT BELIEVE RAIN WILL FIRST OCCUR AT FLO BY 18Z AND SPREAD
NE TO ILM BEFORE 20Z. THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY CAUSE MVFR CIGS AS LOW
LEVELS SATURATE...AND ALL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z...BUT WITH MOIST NE FLOW TODAY AT 6 TO 10 KT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP IFR
CIGS AT THE TERMINALS FOR QUITE A WHILE ONCE THEY DEVELOP. TIME
HEIGHTS ARE ALSO SHOWING A PERIOD OF MODERATE OMEGA THROUGH THE
COLUMN...SO SOME TEMPO +RA IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT WILL WAIT FOR
FUTURE GUIDANCE TO MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS. OVERALL A MESSY NIGHT
FOR AVIATION IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR MONDAY POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. IFR FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS
CONTINUES. CURRENTLY ONLY NC WATERS APPEAR TO BE MEETING
CRITERIA...AND THIS IS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE. HOWEVER...NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AS LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE
GA/SC COAST AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MINIMAL CHANGES WITH MORNING
UPDATE.

SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
OFFSHORE AND DECREASING WINDS WILL BRING SUBSIDING WIND WAVES. A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO SETTLE MORE QUICKLY INTO THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE. LONG
TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... WEAK HIGH
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAP WINDS LOCALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS REALIZED. SLIGHT VEERING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE WORST OF THE MARINE WEATHER WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN A MODERATELY STRONG COOL SURGE WITH
GRADIENT PINCH.

LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
WEAK HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAP WINDS LOCALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
AS A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS REALIZED. SLIGHT VEERING IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE WORST OF THE MARINE WEATHER WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN A MODERATELY STRONG COOL SURGE WITH
GRADIENT PINCH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KRAH 221145
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH A DRY AIR RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...DEW POINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR FALLEN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA. TO THE SW...A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NE OVER
MS/AL...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG A
LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PARALLELS THE COAST. PRECIP
CURRENTLY EXTENDS AS FAR NE AS ATLANTA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE WAVE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING NORTH ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND OVERRUNS THE SURFACE RIDGE.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST VELOCITIES WITH THE
LLJ WILL BE SHUNTED EAST TOWARD THE SE COAST...AND THUS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER CENTRAL NC IS MORE GRADUAL AND MAY EVEN BE
SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE MOTION OF THE STORM ITSELF. 00Z RAOBS FROM
AROUND THE REGION SHOW RATHER DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ALONG WITH THE
LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THIS SHOULD HOLD PRECIP OFF UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
RETAINED ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY....INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE NAM AND
CANADIAN...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. THE GFS MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...WHICH CAUSE IT TO GENERATE MULTIPLE
SURFACE LOWS OFFSHORE AND ACCELERATE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST TOO QUICKLY...SHUTTING OFF PRECIP TOO QUICKLY. GIVEN
THE WEAKENING UPPER FORCING...DONT EXPECT MUCH HIGH QPF...ALTHOUGH
THE DURATION OF A LIGHT STEADY RAIN MAY GENERATE A THIRD TO A HALF
AN INCH TOTAL IN SOME LOCALES.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT FROM PRECIP TIMING...BUT WITH
A LATE ARRIVAL EXPECTED AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE BALLPARK OF THIS PAST EVENINGS 1340M...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  TEMPS SHOULD FALL RATHER QUICKLY
TO WETBULB VALUES (WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 50 SE) WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP.  WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED RISE MUCH...ESPECIALLY DEEPER
INTO THE CAD COLD POOL.  HIGHS RANGING FROM 49-58 NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NE...ALTHOUGH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FROM THE SW MAY LIKELY PROLONG SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE THROUGH TUES MORNING.  EVEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOURCE REMOVED FROM NEW ENGLAND...THE CAD EDGE AIRMASS MAY LINGER
WELL INTO TUESDAY (DEPENDING ON PRIOR RAINFALL). MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A MORE PERSISTENT CAD AIRMASS...WITH THE GFS NOT SURPRISINGLY
ERODING THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MORE QUICKLY.  THUS...A TOUGH
CALL AT THE MOMENT ON TUESDAYS HIGHS.  HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS...NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH WHERE...IF
NOTHING ELSE...CAD EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LAST.  57-63 N TO S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY

IN GENERAL FAVORING THE SLOWER MORE NORTH SOLUTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF
OVER THE GFS... BUT OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SLIGHTLY SMALLER
RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS... DIFFERENCES RELATIVELY SMALL IN NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE BEST...THOUGH TINY CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A
WEAK 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING MINIMAL
LIFT. EXPECTING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING... AND COASTAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TO OUR EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY TRACKS EAST... WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY... A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A SIGNIFICANT NEARBY
SURFACE LOW MAY MAKE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT. OTHER THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS EXCEEDING 1350 METERS AT GREENSBORO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...DECLINING TO MID 50S
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS... THEN LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...

MID LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO SATURATE AND TAF SITES SHOULD NOT SEE
MEASURABLE RAIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
UNTIL THEN... THEN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN
RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH BY MID MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN MVFR FOG
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH

000
FXUS62 KILM 221139
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WEAKENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE ON THURSDAY BRINGING STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FADE THEREAFTER. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SLOWLY
INCREASES. RISING PRESSURES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN FALLING LATER
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING S TO SW FLOW ABOVE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS LOW PRESSURE ENTRAINS
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT ONE AND ONE-THIRD INCHES. STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVE HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO COMMONLY RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO ONE AND ONE-QUARTER INCHES. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH ALTHOUGH RECEDING RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN RISING AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THIS
WEEK.

ANY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THIS MORNING AND WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING...FIRST ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
POINTS S...MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...WE DO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPS TO BE 5 TO
AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. A RAW NE WIND WILL MAKE IT
FEEL THAT MUCH CHILLIER. MINIMUMS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILARLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS A THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL SERVE TO INSULATE THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY. EVEN LOWER LEVEL
FORCING...295K UPGLIDE...WILL DO THE SAME BUT NOT UNTIL MIDDAY.
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS TAPER FROM S TO N BUT LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER EVEN AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
DRY OUT RATHER STRONGLY. THERE IS NOTHING TO ROUT OUT THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS A VERY ILL DEFINED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NEAR ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER BELOW THE DESCENDING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LINGER ON TUESDAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CAUSE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
IF THESE BREAKS ARE ADEQUATE THEN MIXING WILL THEN TAKE
OVER...RAISE THE CLOUD BASE...AND THEN MIX OUT THE MOISTURE WITH
THE DRY AIR ABOVE. THIS IS THE BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY
HIGHS...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS. WITHOUT
ANY NORTHEASTERLY RE-ENFORCING FLOW OF COOL/MOIST AIR WILL TREND
TOWARDS THE HIGHER NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LONG TERM PD WILL BE
RAIN-FREE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 70 AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR SOME TIME ON TURKEY DAY. COOL AIR
WILL POUR IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH OCCLUDES A CYCLONE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN
TODAY AS A SECONDARY SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY TONIGHT.

VFR EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WEATHER. THIS WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FIRST EFFECTS OF THIS WILL BE
BKN TO OVC CIGS AT 12K FEET...QUICKLY FALLING TO 5K FEET AT THE
INVERSION LEVEL AS VIRGA SATURATES THE COLUMN. TIMING THIS EVENT IS
TRICKY...BUT BELIEVE RAIN WILL FIRST OCCUR AT FLO BY 18Z AND SPREAD
NE TO ILM BEFORE 20Z. THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY CAUSE MVFR CIGS AS LOW
LEVELS SATURATE...AND ALL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z...BUT WITH MOIST NE FLOW TODAY AT 6 TO 10 KT THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP IFR
CIGS AT THE TERMINALS FOR QUITE A WHILE ONCE THEY DEVELOP. TIME
HEIGHTS ARE ALSO SHOWING A PERIOD OF MODERATE OMEGA THROUGH THE
COLUMN...SO SOME TEMPO +RA IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT WILL WAIT FOR
FUTURE GUIDANCE TO MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS. OVERALL A MESSY NIGHT
FOR AVIATION IS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR MONDAY POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. IFR FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
TODAY...THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR N AND
REDEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR S. GRADIENT WILL LIKELY GET
PINCHED...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUXTAPOSITION OF
REDEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS AND PERSIST INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING FROM S TO N
TOWARD MON MORNING. NE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO ENE DURING THE EVE
BEFORE RETURNING TO NE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK DURING THE
EVE...SUBSIDING SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
OFFSHORE AND DECREASING WINDS WILL BRING SUBSIDING WIND WAVES. A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO SETTLE MORE QUICKLY INTO THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE. LONG
TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... WEAK HIGH
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAP WINDS LOCALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS REALIZED. SLIGHT VEERING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE WORST OF THE MARINE WEATHER WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN A MODERATELY STRONG COOL SURGE WITH
GRADIENT PINCH.

LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
WEAK HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAP WINDS LOCALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
AS A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS REALIZED. SLIGHT VEERING IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE WORST OF THE MARINE WEATHER WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN A MODERATELY STRONG COOL SURGE WITH
GRADIENT PINCH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ250-252-254-     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KMHX 220936
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...HIGH TO THE N IS SLOW TO MOVE E AND THAT HAS
DELAYED RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND OUTPUT FROM
00Z MDLS. ISENT LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN OVER THE AREA AS
WEAKENING SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH CSTL TRF DEVELOPING JUST
OFFSHORE. LOWERED POPS TO CHC INLAND AND S TO NO POP NE SECTION
FOR THIS AFTN. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING THRU THE
DAY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MOST AREAS
EARLY AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGHS WITH 60 TO 65 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY ..RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS
INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. CSTL
FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT ALTHO IT
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN TO REACH FAR NE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S CST.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N MON AS MAIN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO VA. HOWEVER EXPECT THERE WILL STILL
BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. FCST QPF REMAIN GENERALLY
BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND
PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF
THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH ALLOWING
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DESPITE THE
RAIN.

FOLLOWED THE NAM SOLUTION MON NIGHT WHICH KEEPS LOW LVL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PROB SOME DRIZZLE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 40S INLAND TO UPR 50S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...AGAIN LEANED TOWARD NAM ON TUESDAY WHICH
WOULD FAVOR PLENTY CLOUDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUN. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A CPL DGRS AND NOW EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60.

SHUD STILL BE ABLE TO ECK OUT A NICE DAY WED (WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S) BEFORE CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA.

A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT
AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS
HEELS THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKND TO BE DRY
AND COOL AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LCL IFR AT KPGV EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW VFR WILL PREVAIL ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.

IFR WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON. LOW PRES WILL DEPART MON
NIGHT BUT LOW LVL MSTR LIKELY TO REMAIN...RESULTING IN IFR CIGS
PSBLY INTO WED. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THU WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING IN.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRAD RELAXING SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S. SEAS REMAINING
AROUND 6 FEET THOSE AREAS AS WELL. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW
MUCH GRAD WILL RELAX TODAY AND MAINLY CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH
STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. GRAD EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM SW. MODELS
LIKELY SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH STRENGTH OF LOW...THUS CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST OF SCA WINDS...AND POSTED SCA FOR ALB AND PAM SOUNDS
AS WELL. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NRN WATERS MON
WHILE WINDS DECREASE REST OF AREA WITH LOW PRES CENTER MOVING
ACROSS. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH CAA IN WAKE OF LOW PRES
BUT THEN DIMINISH TUE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR WED-THU DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES...COULD HAVE ANOTHER LOW PRES MOVE ALONG COAST
THU.

BLEND OF SWAN AND WW3 FOR SEAS IN SHORT TERM...THEN WW3 REST OF
PERIOD. SCA SEAS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER NRN WATERS UNTIL EARLY TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
     10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JBM
MARINE...JBM

000
FXUS62 KMHX 220935
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
435 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...HIGH TO THE N IS SLOW TO MOVE E AND THAT HAS
DELAYED RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND OUTPUT FROM
00Z MDLS. ISENT LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN OVER THE AREA AS
WEAKENING SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH CSTL TRF DEVELOPING JUST
OFFSHORE. LOWERED POPS TO CHC INLAND AND S TO NO POP NE SECTION
FOR THIS AFTN. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING THRU THE
DAY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MOST AREAS
EARLY AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGHS WITH 60 TO 65 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY ..RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS
INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. CSTL
FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT ALTHO IT
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN TO REACH FAR NE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S CST.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N MON AS MAIN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO VA. HOWEVER EXPECT THERE WILL STILL
BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. FCST QPF REMAIN GENERALLY
BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND
PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF
THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH ALLOWING
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DESPITE THE
RAIN.

FOLLOWED THE NAM SOLUTION MON NIGHT WHICH KEEPS LOW LVL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PROB SOME DRIZZLE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 40S INLAND TO UPR 50S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...AGAIN LEANED TOWARD NAM ON TUESDAY WHICH
WOULD FAVOR PLENTY CLOUDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUN. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A CPL DGRS AND NOW EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60.

SHUD STILL BE ABLE TO ECK OUT A NICE DAY WED (WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S) BEFORE CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA.

A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT
AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS
HEELS THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKND TO BE DRY
AND COOL AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LCL IFR AT KPGV EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW VFR WILL PREVAIL ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THIS AFTN. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.

IFR WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MON. LOW PRES WILL DEPART MON
NIGHT BUT LOW LVL MSTR LIKELY TO REMAIN...RESULTING IN IFR CIGS
PSBLY INTO WED. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THU WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING IN.

&&

.MARINE...
PRES GRAD RELAXING SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE GUSTS TO 25 KT OVER OUTER WATERS FROM HAT S. SEAS REMAINING
AROUND 6 FEET THOSE AREAS AS WELL. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW
MUCH GRAD WILL RELAX TODAY AND MAINLY CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST WITH
STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. GRAD EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM SW. MODELS
LIKELY SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH STRENGTH OF LOW...THUS CONTINUED
PREVIOUS FCST OF SCA WINDS...AND POSTED SCA FOR ALB AND PAM SOUNDS
AS WELL. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NRN WATERS MON
WHILE WINDS DECREASE REST OF AREA WITH LOW PRES CENTER MOVING
ACROSS. WINDS PICK UP AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH CAA IN WAKE OF LOW PRES
BUT THEN DIMINISH TUE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FCST FOR WED-THU DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES...COULD HAVE ANOTHER LOW PRES MOVE ALONG COAST
THU.

BLEND OF SWAN AND WW3 FOR SEAS IN SHORT TERM...THEN WW3 REST OF
PERIOD. SCA SEAS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER NRN WATERS UNTIL EARLY TUE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...JBM
MARINE...JBM

000
FXUS62 KILM 220800
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
300 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS WEAKENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE ON THURSDAY BRINGING STRONGER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FADE THEREAFTER. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO THICKEN FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SLOWLY
INCREASES. RISING PRESSURES THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN FALLING LATER
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN
MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING S TO SW FLOW ABOVE LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT AS LOW PRESSURE ENTRAINS
BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT ONE AND ONE-THIRD INCHES. STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVE HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO COMMONLY RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH TO ONE AND ONE-QUARTER INCHES. THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH ALTHOUGH RECEDING RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN RISING AGAIN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THIS
WEEK.

ANY DIM SUNSHINE WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THIS MORNING AND WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING...FIRST ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION AND
POINTS S...MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST IN THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...WE DO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPS TO BE 5 TO
AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. A RAW NE WIND WILL MAKE IT
FEEL THAT MUCH CHILLIER. MINIMUMS TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILARLY ABOVE
NORMAL AS A THICK CANOPY OF CLOUDS WILL SERVE TO INSULATE THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z MONDAY. EVEN LOWER LEVEL
FORCING...295K UPGLIDE...WILL DO THE SAME BUT NOT UNTIL MIDDAY.
MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL THUS TAPER FROM S TO N BUT LOW CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE MAY LINGER EVEN AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
DRY OUT RATHER STRONGLY. THERE IS NOTHING TO ROUT OUT THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS A VERY ILL DEFINED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NEAR ISOTHERMAL SATURATED LAYER BELOW THE DESCENDING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO LINGER ON TUESDAY BUT
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID LEVELS SHOULD CAUSE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.
IF THESE BREAKS ARE ADEQUATE THEN MIXING WILL THEN TAKE
OVER...RAISE THE CLOUD BASE...AND THEN MIX OUT THE MOISTURE WITH
THE DRY AIR ABOVE. THIS IS THE BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY
HIGHS...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A 10 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS. WITHOUT
ANY NORTHEASTERLY RE-ENFORCING FLOW OF COOL/MOIST AIR WILL TREND
TOWARDS THE HIGHER NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LONG TERM PD WILL BE
RAIN-FREE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 70 AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED FOR SOME TIME ON TURKEY DAY. COOL AIR
WILL POUR IN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH OCCLUDES A CYCLONE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO BY BOTH DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS IS PROVIDING A DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE. MOISTURE NEAR AN INVERSION AROUND 5K COULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST SCATTERED TO TEMPO CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.

AFTER SUNRISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z AT THE TERMINALS WITH MID
LEVEL CEILINGS 8-12K DEVELOPING AS VIRGA OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
CEILINGS 4-5K AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE INVERSION LEVEL. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS THE LOWER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AT FLO/CRE/MYR...WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR MONDAY. IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
TODAY...THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR N AND
REDEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR S. GRADIENT WILL LIKELY GET
PINCHED...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON JUXTAPOSITION OF
REDEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS AND PERSIST INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...DIMINISHING FROM S TO N
TOWARD MON MORNING. NE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO ENE DURING THE EVE
BEFORE RETURNING TO NE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK DURING THE
EVE...SUBSIDING SLOWLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
MONDAY AS SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
OFFSHORE AND DECREASING WINDS WILL BRING SUBSIDING WIND WAVES. A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW
SEAS TO SETTLE MORE QUICKLY INTO THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE. LONG
TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY... WEAK HIGH
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAP WINDS LOCALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS AS A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS REALIZED. SLIGHT VEERING IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE WORST OF THE MARINE WEATHER WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN A MODERATELY STRONG COOL SURGE WITH
GRADIENT PINCH.

LONG TERM/WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...
WEAK HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CAP WINDS LOCALLY AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
AS A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS REALIZED. SLIGHT VEERING IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP.
THE WORST OF THE MARINE WEATHER WILL COME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND IN A MODERATELY STRONG COOL SURGE WITH
GRADIENT PINCH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/MRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 220754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
254 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST THIS MORNING...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING...WITH A DRY AIR RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. SUBSEQUENTLY...DEW POINTS HAVE HELD STEADY OR FALLEN
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CWA. TO THE SW...A VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF COAST IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NE OVER
MS/AL...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG A
LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PARALLELS THE COAST. PRECIP
CURRENTLY EXTENDS AS FAR NE AS ATLANTA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE WITH
A NEGATIVE TILT...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS...THE WAVE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS... WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING NORTH ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND OVERRUNS THE SURFACE RIDGE.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST VELOCITIES WITH THE
LLJ WILL BE SHUNTED EAST TOWARD THE SE COAST...AND THUS THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER CENTRAL NC IS MORE GRADUAL AND MAY EVEN BE
SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE MOTION OF THE STORM ITSELF. 00Z RAOBS FROM
AROUND THE REGION SHOW RATHER DRY MID LEVEL AIR...ALONG WITH THE
LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THIS SHOULD HOLD PRECIP OFF UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
RETAINED ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDDAY....INCREASING TO
CATEGORICAL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE NAM AND
CANADIAN...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF...AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. THE GFS MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...WHICH CAUSE IT TO GENERATE MULTIPLE
SURFACE LOWS OFFSHORE AND ACCELERATE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AWAY
FROM THE COAST TOO QUICKLY...SHUTTING OFF PRECIP TOO QUICKLY. GIVEN
THE WEAKENING UPPER FORCING...DONT EXPECT MUCH HIGH QPF...ALTHOUGH
THE DURATION OF A LIGHT STEADY RAIN MAY GENERATE A THIRD TO A HALF
AN INCH TOTAL IN SOME LOCALES.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT FROM PRECIP TIMING...BUT WITH
A LATE ARRIVAL EXPECTED AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE BALLPARK OF THIS PAST EVENINGS 1340M...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S...POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  TEMPS SHOULD FALL RATHER QUICKLY
TO WETBULB VALUES (WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NW TO
AROUND 50 SE) WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP.  WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE...TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED RISE MUCH...ESPECIALLY DEEPER
INTO THE CAD COLD POOL.  HIGHS RANGING FROM 49-58 NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...

EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NE...ALTHOUGH A PASSING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FROM THE SW MAY LIKELY PROLONG SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
DRIZZLE THROUGH TUES MORNING.  EVEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SOURCE REMOVED FROM NEW ENGLAND...THE CAD EDGE AIRMASS MAY LINGER
WELL INTO TUESDAY (DEPENDING ON PRIOR RAINFALL). MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A MORE PERSISTENT CAD AIRMASS...WITH THE GFS NOT SURPRISINGLY
ERODING THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY MORE QUICKLY.  THUS...A TOUGH
CALL AT THE MOMENT ON TUESDAYS HIGHS.  HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS...NUDGING DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH WHERE...IF
NOTHING ELSE...CAD EROSION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LAST.  57-63 N TO S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY

IN GENERAL FAVORING THE SLOWER MORE NORTH SOLUTION OF THE 00Z ECMWF
OVER THE GFS... BUT OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND SLIGHTLY SMALLER
RAIN CHANCES THAN THE GFS... DIFFERENCES RELATIVELY SMALL IN NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE BEST...THOUGH TINY CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A
WEAK 850 MILLIBAR TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING MINIMAL
LIFT. EXPECTING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING... AND COASTAL SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS TO OUR EAST. ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY TRACKS EAST... WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY... A LACK OF MOISTURE AND A SIGNIFICANT NEARBY
SURFACE LOW MAY MAKE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DIFFICULT. OTHER THAN
TUESDAY NIGHT... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS EXCEEDING 1350 METERS AT GREENSBORO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS MID AND UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY...DECLINING TO MID 50S
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MID AND UPPER 40S TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS... THEN LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

SOME IFR FOG AT ROCKY MOUNT THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR
VISIBILITIES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AT TAF SITES. MID LEVEL WILL
BE SLOW TO SATURATE AND TAF SITES SHOULD NOT SEE MEASURABLE RAIN
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. VFR CEILINGS UNTIL THEN... THEN
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH BY MID MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE AN ISSUE IF CLEARING OCCURS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS62 KMHX 220701
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...HIGH TO THE N IS SLOW TO MOVE E AND THAT HAS
DELAYED RETURN OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF RAIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND OUTPUT FROM
00Z MDLS. ISENT LIFT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN OVER THE AREA AS
WEAKENING SRT WAVE APPROACHES WITH CSTL TRF DEVELOPING JUST
OFFSHORE. LOWERED POPS TO CHC INLAND AND S TO NO POP NE SECTION
FOR THIS AFTN. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND THICKENING THRU THE
DAY HOWEVER WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE MOST AREAS
EARLY AND MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGHS WITH 60 TO 65 EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY ..RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS
INSENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. CSTL
FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF WEAKENING SHORT WAVE.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT ALTHO IT
MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN TO REACH FAR NE AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S CST.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N MON AS MAIN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO VA. HOWEVER EXPECT THERE WILL STILL
BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. FCST QPF REMAIN GENERALLY
BETWEEN .50 AND 1 INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND
PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF
THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH ALLOWING
TEMPS ON MONDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DESPITE THE
RAIN.

FOLLOWED THE NAM SOLUTION MON NIGHT WHICH KEEPS LOW LVL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND PROB SOME DRIZZLE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM UPR 40S INLAND TO UPR 50S OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUNDAY...AGAIN LEANED TOWARD NAM ON TUESDAY WHICH
WOULD FAVOR PLENTY CLOUDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUN. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A CPL DGRS AND NOW EXPECT INLAND AREAS TO STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60.

SHUD STILL BE ABLE TO ECK OUT A NICE DAY WED (WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S) BEFORE CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA.

A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT
AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS
HEELS THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKND TO BE DRY
AND COOL AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO TAFS THIS EVENING.
SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CLOUD DECKS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z MONDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...GFS LAMP AND NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN
THE PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND GENERAL LACK
OF SUPPORT FOR MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE A BIT FASTER
BRINGING IN THE MID DECK OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DROPPING INTO SUN
AS THE RAIN ADVANCES ON THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXP TO LINGER POTENTIALLY INTO TUE.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THEREAFTER...WITH CLEARING
AND PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER HIGHER TD COULD LEAD TO
OVERNIGHT FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE NT AND WED NT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN STRONG LOW
WELL EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND 1025 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND
PER MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE THERE AT
02Z. SEAS STILL CLOSE TO 6 FEET ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE 20 NM
RANGE WITH 7 FOOT SEAS LINGERING NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...SO WILL
CONTINUE SCA ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...THE WEAK LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES TO OUR N
IS PRODUCING WINDS 20-25KT WINDS MAINLY S OF OREGON INLET. SEAS
HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 5 TO 8 FT THIS AFT...WITH CONDITIONS EXP TO
CHANGE LITTLE THIS EVENING. LATER TNT AS THE LOW MOVES E WE WILL
SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS...THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN UP ESP
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LOW OVER THE
GULF STATES WHICH WILL MOVE E SUN AND OVER THE CAROLINAS BY MON.
THE LOW IS EXP TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT
WEAKENS. THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
HATTERAS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THIS REGION.
HOWEVER THE SE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LOW COULD BRIEFLY GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT. THE N WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 20KT AS THE
LOW PASSES TO THE S. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ABV SCA THROUGH OUT MON
NT.

BY MON THE STRONG HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE E OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 50W WILL PINCH THE GRAD AND
COMBINED WITH SOME HIGHER SEAS OVER THE N ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE
SOME DOUBLE DIGIT SEAS. THE ENE FETCH AROUND THE HIGH WILL STEER A
LOT OF THIS ENERGY TOWARDS THE E COAST...AND THOUGH IT WILL
DIMINISH GREATLY BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST IT COULD ADD SOME
SWELL TO THE SEA HEIGHTS TO THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THE HIGH PRES SLIDING OVER THE REGION WILL AID IN DROPPING WIND
SPEEDS SO COMBINED SEAS COULD DROP BELOW 6FT DURING THIS
TIME...HOWEVER N WATERS COULD REMAIN UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FCST IF WAVEWATCH SEAS WERE ACCURATE. DUE TO LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
OVER THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC CAN`T VERIFY THE INITIAL CONDITIONS
OF WAVEWATCH...SO HAVE SHAVED ABOUT A FOOT OFF THE OUTPUT BY
TUE/WED UNTIL THERE IS MORE SUPPORT OF THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION COULD LEAD
TO CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THU. MOST MODELS
SUPPORT A WEAK LOW PASSING OBX AND STRENGTHENING AT IS MOVES
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING THE STRONGEST
SOLUTIONS OF A COASTAL LOW SKIRTING NC. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT
BEING MUCH FURTHER N THAN OUR LAST COASTAL LOW...FEEL THE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS HERE ARE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE CAA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW THU NT INTO FRI WILL INCREASE TO SCA IN STRONG NW
WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...CTC/SJ
MARINE...CTC/SJ

000
FXUS62 KRAH 220553
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1253 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...

A 1024 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK STATE
THIS EVENING... WITH RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA INTO GEORGIA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING... WITH MID CLOUDS STILL HOLDING
BACK OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CLOSEST
MEASURABLE RAIN THIS EVENING EXTENDED FROM BIRMINGHAM TO
TALLAHASSEE.

LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE LATEST
00Z/22 NOVEMBER UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS... EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...
SUGGESTING THAT MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL
HELP LOWS DIP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
STILL... A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED
LATE.... WITH LOWS OF 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY:

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 500 MILLIBAR LOW
DEAMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES
NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA...GEORGIA AND EASTERN
TENNESSEE. THE ATTENDANT GULF COAST SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA ALABAMA COAST. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN OFF
THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
SUNDAY...WITH A PROMINENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE RATHER ANEMIC
SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE STRENGTHENING
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE 925 TO 850
MILLIBAR WARM FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS...THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IS QUITE DELAYED
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING
IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO
THE TRIANGLE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. WILL SHOW HIGHEST
POPS (CATEGORICAL/LIKELY) IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE TRIANGLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10 TO
0.25 INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ON SUNDAY...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER
IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S...AND THAT LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE BASED ON THE DELAYED
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER
TO AROUND 1033 MILLIBARS AND DRIFTS FROM OVER MAINE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEAKENS GRADUALLY WHILE THE
SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OFF THE SC COAST WITH ITS
CENTER THEN PASSING NEAR THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH MONDAY. THE
SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FINALLY BEGINS TO
SATURATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH
INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 290 TO 300 KELVIN AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE
DPVA DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
DAMPENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS UP THROUGH EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
(WHILE MAXIMIZED OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) TRENDS
WEAKER AS WELL. AND BY THE TIME THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KILOMETER
BECOMES SATURATED... WE LOSE THE MOISTURE ALOFT AS THE VERY DRY
AIR NOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PUNCHES IN ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN
RATHER LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS... ALTHOUGH GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL
FORCING FEATURES LINE UP WELL... WE STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... AND
WILL RETAIN CATEGORICAL POPS... MAINLY FROM LATE EVENING SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF POPS TO A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWS 46 TO 51. THEN WITH THICK OVERCAST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY... LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND THE COASTAL LOW
HOLDING OFFSHORE... TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE MONDAY.
HIGHS 49 TO 59... AND EVEN THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC WITHIN THE HEART
OF THE COLD DOME IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
BY LATE TUESDAY. THE PARENT HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE WEDGE AIR MASS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... HOWEVER IT LEAVES BEHIND A FORMIDABLE
COOL POOL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
STABLE AIR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2 KILOMETER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... AND THE GFS HOLDS ONTO LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THIS LAYER AROUND 295 KELVIN. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH NO MOISTURE ALOFT AND
STABLE/WARMING MID LEVELS... IT SHOULD HAVE NO SENSIBLE IMPACT IN
THIS AREA. WITH WEAK AND LIGHTLY DIFFLUENT MAINLY NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS... WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE BROUGHT LOWS UP SLIGHTLY TO 45 TO 49. ON TUESDAY... THE GFS
KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED WHEREAS THE
NAM WANTS TO START DRYING THIS LAYER OUT. THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE
DIFFICULTLY CORRECTLY DEPICTING EROSION OF A DAMMING AIR MASS THAT
HAS LOST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND NO LONGER HAS ANY CONNECTION TO A
COOL DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SOURCE. DESPITE HEATING FROM ABOVE WHICH
MAY START TO BURN OFF THE UPPER PORTION OF THIS MOIST LAYER...
GIVEN THE DRY SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT CAPPING OFF THIS SURFACE-
BASED LAYER AND WITH WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KILOMETER
INHIBITING MIXING... FAVOR A LEAN TOWARD THE GFS (WHICH HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN) WHICH MEANS HOLDING ONTO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THIS GREATER CLOUD COVER... HIGHS
WILL ACCORDINGLY BE LOWERED... TO 58 TO 65. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT: THE GFS/CANADIAN DEPICT A WEAK 850 MILLIBAR WARM
FRONT SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING
MORE UNIFORM (YET STILL LIGHT) FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST BY MORNING.
GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISSOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. WILL SHOW A TREND
TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT BUT BASED ON
UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH A FEATURE THIS FAR OUT... WILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. LOWS 43 TO 48.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...
WITH THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE HOLDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON ONE MID LEVEL VORTEX
OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY SWINGING EAST THEN NORTH THROUGH
QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE ANOTHER VORTEX DROPS FROM NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
FINALLY TRACKS UP ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP PATTERN AS THE GEFS MEAN
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP TO 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
BY FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO
PINPOINT WITHIN SUCH A FAST FLOW ALOFT BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL
SEE A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY... FOLLOWED BY FALLING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND DRY BUT BRISK NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A
POLAR SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY... THEN INDICATE DRY AND
COLDER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY... SLIGHTLY COOLER (NEAR NORMAL)
THANKSGIVING DAY... THEN THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES PLUNGING BELOW 1310 METERS ON THE
GFS AND CANADIAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOUT
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM...

SOME IFR FOG AT ROCKY MOUNT THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR
VISIBILITIES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AT TAF SITES. MID LEVEL WILL
BE SLOW TO SATURATE AND TAF SITES SHOULD NOT SEE MEASURABLE RAIN
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. VFR CEILINGS UNTIL THEN... THEN
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN RAIN. NORTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 10 MPH BY MID MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE AN ISSUE IF CLEARING OCCURS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD

000
FXUS62 KILM 220540
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1240 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. A BRIEF WARM
UP IS EXPECTED MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL USHER IN
SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED THE LATEST MIN FCST DUE TO THE
LATEST TIME HEIGHT MODEL FCST FROM THE NAM INDICATING THE THICKER
CLOUD DECKS WILL NOT MAKE THEIR APPEARANCE ACROSS THE ILM CWA UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...RUNNING FROM SW TO NE. AM EVEN INCLINED
TO SHAVE A DEGREE OR 3 DEGREES OFF FROM THE LATEST MIN FCST BUT ALL
1 NEEDS IS A THICK DENSE CI DECK OR HIGH AC/AS DECK FOR SEVERAL HRS
TO BRING UP TEMPS/DEWPTS AND THE MIN TEMP FCST IS BLOWN. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT LOWS FORECAST AS IS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT SHOULD AT TIMES OBSERVE A
CRESCENT MOON THROUGH THE CI/AC/AS THIN TO OPAQUE CLOUDS. NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNITE. TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE ILM CWA...SOMEWHAT
MORE TIGHTENED OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WATERS...WILL MAINTAIN A
WELL MIXED LOW LEVEL. THIS WELL SEEN WITH LATEST RAOBS AND KLTX VWP
WITH LATEST SFC OBS CONTINUING TO ILLUSTRATE ACTIVE NE WINDS. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING FOG AND EVEN LOW STRATUS FROM
BECOMING ANY TYPE OF NUISANCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO WHAT OCCURRED
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF THE PRECIP ON SUN...WITH LIGHT PRECIP NOW SPREADING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...COVERING
ALL OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT. DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
CATEGORICAL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUN NIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR ON MON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB
SPREADING OVER THE AREA MON MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR WILL
BRING AN END TO MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO
MON...BUT THINK MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE OVER BY LATE MORNING.
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
MON AND THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. WEAK OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH
SOME PATCHES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS BATCH OF PRECIP WILL MEASURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY...THOUGH COASTAL
SITE MAY FLIRT WITH CLIMO ON MON DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW
GETS TO THE COAST. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BOTH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES THROUGH WED. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN
CLOSER TO A HALF INCH WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE HOLDING
ON THROUGH WED MORNING. WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE AND DECENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE WILL HOLD ON TO LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF TUES. PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL THURS INTO FRI WHEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
TAKES OVER THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO THURS AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS..MAY SEE A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH LONGER WAVE H5 TROUGH
GIVING PUSH OF DRIER AIR INITIALLY...BUT THEN WINDS BACK ON THURS
TAPPING INTO A LITTLE GULF MOISTURE. THIS REMAINS MAINLY OFF
SHORE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PCP FOR THURS
AFTN. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS FOR THURS. THEN PLENTY
OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THURS INTO
FRI. BY FRI HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SCOURING OUT ALL THE WEATHER AND BRINGING DRY AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT BY SAT AFTN SHOULD GET STRONGER
AND DEEPER LAYER COLD AIR STREAMING INTO THE CAROLINAS IN A DEEP
LAYER NW FLOW AS H5 TROUGH CLEARS THE COAST. EXPECT DRY BUT COLD
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL HOLD AROUND NORMAL OR ABOVE WITH SUNNIEST AND WARMEST DAY
EXPECTED ON WED. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS DROP
BELOW 0C BY FRI EVENING AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT
TEMPS DOWN IN THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT
NIGHT. DAY TIME HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BELOW 60
INLAND TO JUST NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS IS PROVIDING A DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE. MOISTURE NEAR AN INVERSION AROUND 5K COULD RESULT
IN AT LEAST SCATTERED TO TEMPO CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT THROUGH
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED.

AFTER SUNRISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z AT THE TERMINALS WITH MID
LEVEL CEILINGS 8-12K DEVELOPING AS VIRGA OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
CEILINGS 4-5K AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE INVERSION LEVEL. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS THE LOWER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AT FLO/CRE/MYR...WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR MONDAY. IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY 12Z SUNDAY...A TIGHTENED SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS
A 1030+ HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SE CANADA RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
....AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS EMERGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS ENE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT
OR 20-25 KT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY PRODUCED SEAS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FT...WITH 7 FOOTERS BETWEEN 15-20 NM OUT AND ACROSS
FRYING PAN SHOALS. MODEL CONTINUE WITH A RATHER WEAK LOW TO AFFECT
THE AREA WATERS BUT ITS RATHER EXTENSIVE AND PROFOUND PINCHED SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WELL
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS AND THE 1030+ HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH.
SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED HIER BY A FOOT FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS TO
ACCOMMODATE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND WIND FCSTS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO PASS EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. PINCHED GRADIENT ON SUN WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SEAS
4 TO 6 FT INTO SUN NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
ACROSS NC WATERS...SO WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR ZONES 250 AND 252. WILL
LIKELY NEED A SCEC FOR SC ZONES WHEN THE TIME COMES. GRADIENT
RELAXES WHEN SURFACE LOW PASSES THE WATERS EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MON...KEEPING LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH. LIGHTER
WINDS...10 TO 15 KT MON AND MON NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL PRETTY QUICKLY...TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
MON EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. OVERALL  EXPECT LIGHT OFF
SHORE FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT. BY THURS AFTN GRADIENT MAY INCREASE AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRI
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. MAY SEE SEAS UP NEAR 4
TO 5 FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW THURS NIGHT INTO
FRI MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR AMZ254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/RJD

000
FXUS62 KILM 220320
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
944 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. A BRIEF WARM
UP IS EXPECTED MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL USHER IN
SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED THE LATEST MIN FCST DUE TO THE
LATEST TIME HEIGHT MODEL FCST FROM THE NAM INDICATING THE THICKER
CLOUD DECKS WILL NOT MAKE THEIR APPEARANCE ACROSS THE ILM CWA UNTIL
WELL AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY...RUNNING FROM SW TO NE. AM EVEN INCLINED
TO SHAVE A DEGREE OR 3 DEGREES OFF FROM THE LATEST MIN FCST BUT ALL
1 NEEDS IS A THICK DENSE CI DECK OR HIGH AC/AS DECK FOR SEVERAL HRS
TO BRING UP TEMPS/DEWPTS AND THE MIN TEMP FCST IS BLOWN. AS A
RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT LOWS FORECAST AS IS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT SHOULD AT TIMES OBSERVE A
CRESCENT MOON THROUGH THE CI/AC/AS THIN TO OPAQUE CLOUDS. NO PCPN
EXPECTED OVERNITE. TIGHTENED SFC PG ACROSS THE ILM CWA...SOMEWHAT
MORE TIGHTENED OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WATERS...WILL MAINTAIN A
WELL MIXED LOW LEVEL. THIS WELL SEEN WITH LATEST RAOBS AND KLTX VWP
WITH LATEST SFC OBS CONTINUING TO ILLUSTRATE ACTIVE NE WINDS. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING FOG AND EVEN LOW STRATUS FROM
BECOMING ANY TYPE OF NUISANCE TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO WHAT OCCURRED
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF THE PRECIP ON SUN...WITH LIGHT PRECIP NOW SPREADING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...COVERING
ALL OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT. DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
CATEGORICAL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUN NIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR ON MON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB
SPREADING OVER THE AREA MON MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR WILL
BRING AN END TO MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO
MON...BUT THINK MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE OVER BY LATE MORNING.
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
MON AND THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. WEAK OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH
SOME PATCHES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS BATCH OF PRECIP WILL MEASURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY...THOUGH COASTAL
SITE MAY FLIRT WITH CLIMO ON MON DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW
GETS TO THE COAST. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BOTH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES THROUGH WED. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN
CLOSER TO A HALF INCH WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE HOLDING
ON THROUGH WED MORNING. WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE AND DECENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE WILL HOLD ON TO LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF TUES. PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL THURS INTO FRI WHEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
TAKES OVER THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO THURS AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS..MAY SEE A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH LONGER WAVE H5 TROUGH
GIVING PUSH OF DRIER AIR INITIALLY...BUT THEN WINDS BACK ON THURS
TAPPING INTO A LITTLE GULF MOISTURE. THIS REMAINS MAINLY OFF
SHORE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PCP FOR THURS
AFTN. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS FOR THURS. THEN PLENTY
OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THURS INTO
FRI. BY FRI HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SCOURING OUT ALL THE WEATHER AND BRINGING DRY AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT BY SAT AFTN SHOULD GET STRONGER
AND DEEPER LAYER COLD AIR STREAMING INTO THE CAROLINAS IN A DEEP
LAYER NW FLOW AS H5 TROUGH CLEARS THE COAST. EXPECT DRY BUT COLD
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL HOLD AROUND NORMAL OR ABOVE WITH SUNNIEST AND WARMEST DAY
EXPECTED ON WED. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS DROP
BELOW 0C BY FRI EVENING AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT
TEMPS DOWN IN THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT
NIGHT. DAY TIME HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BELOW 60
INLAND TO JUST NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS IS PROVIDING A DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. MOISTURE NEAR AN
INVERSION AROUND 5K COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED TO TEMPO
CEILINGS AT THAT LEVEL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER SUNRISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z AT THE TERMINALS WITH MID
LEVEL CEILINGS 8-12K DEVELOPING AS VIRGA OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
CEILINGS 4-5K AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE INVERSION LEVEL. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS THE LOWER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AT FLO/CRE/MYR...WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR MONDAY. IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY 12Z SUNDAY...A TIGHTENED SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME EVEN MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS
A 1030+ HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SE CANADA RIDGES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
....AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE BEGINS EMERGING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS ENE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER INCREASE IN NE WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT
OR 20-25 KT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY PRODUCED SEAS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FT...WITH 7 FOOTERS BETWEEN 15-20 NM OUT AND ACROSS
FRYING PAN SHOALS. MODEL CONTINUE WITH A RATHER WEAK LOW TO AFFECT
THE AREA WATERS BUT ITS RATHER EXTENSIVE AND PROFOUND PINCHED SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING WELL
OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS AND THE 1030+ HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH.
SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED HIER BY A FOOT FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HRS TO
ACCOMODATE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND WIND FCSTS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO PASS EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. PINCHED GRADIENT ON SUN WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SEAS
4 TO 6 FT INTO SUN NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
ACROSS NC WATERS...SO WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR ZONES 250 AND 252. WILL
LIKELY NEED A SCEC FOR SC ZONES WHEN THE TIME COMES. GRADIENT
RELAXES WHEN SURFACE LOW PASSES THE WATERS EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MON...KEEPING LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH. LIGHTER
WINDS...10 TO 15 KT MON AND MON NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL PRETTY QUICKLY...TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
MON EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. OVERALL  EXPECT LIGHT OFF
SHORE FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT. BY THURS AFTN GRADIENT MAY INCREASE AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRI AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. MAY SEE SEAS UP NEAR 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR AMZ254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 220307
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM SATURDAY...

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NY STATE THIS
EVENING... WITH RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH NC/SC INTO
GA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SE LA. CIRRUS CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM THE SW THIS EVENING... WITH MID CLOUDS
STILL HOLDING BACK OVER CENTRAL GA INTO SC. THE CLOSEST MEASURABLE
RAIN THIS EVENING EXTENDED FROM BIRMINGHAM TO TALLAHASSEE.

LITTLE CHANGE APPEARS NEEDED TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE LATEST
00Z/22 NOVEMBER UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS... EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...
SUGGESTING THAT MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ONLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL HELP LOWS DIP
A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. STILL... A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CIRROSTRATUS IS EXPECTED LATE.... WITH LOWS OF
35-40.

SUNDAY:

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 500 MB LOW
DEAMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES N/NE
INTO NORTHERN AL/GA AND EASTERN TN. THE ATTENDANT GULF COAST SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FL/AL COAST. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY SUN IN ASSOC/W WEAK UPPER
FORCING ASSOC/W THE DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH A PROMINENT SFC RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL BE RATHER ANEMIC SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING FROM THE SOUTH/SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
925-850MB WARM FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SC AND THE
MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS QUITE DELAYED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING IN THE SOUTH/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL/LIKELY) IN THE SW
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE N/NE OF THE
TRIANGLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10-0.25" IN
THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURE FCST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ON
SUN...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND THAT LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE BASED ON THE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER
TO AROUND 1033 MB AND DRIFTS FROM OVER MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEAKENS GRADUALLY WHILE THE SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OFF THE SC COAST WITH ITS CENTER THEN
PASSING NEAR THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH MONDAY. THE SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER
CENTRAL NC FINALLY BEGINS TO SATURATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 290K-300K
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE
DPVA DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
DAMPENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS UP THROUGH EASTERN TN
AND WESTERN NC... AND UPPER DIVERGENCE (WHILE MAXIMIZED OVER NC AT
06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) TRENDS WEAKER AS WELL. AND BY THE TIME THE LOWEST
1-2 KM BECOMES SATURATED... WE LOSE THE MOISTURE ALOFT AS THE VERY
DRY AIR NOW OVER NM/WEST TX/OK PUNCHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER LOW QPF...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL FORCING FEATURES LINE UP WELL...
WE STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... AND WILL RETAIN CATEGORICAL POPS... MAINLY
FROM LATE EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
POPS TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS 46-51. THEN WITH THICK OVERCAST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY... LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND THE COASTAL LOW
HOLDING OFFSHORE... TEMPS SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE MONDAY. HIGHS
49-59... AND EVEN THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
COLD DOME IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. THE PARENT HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE WEDGE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER IT LEAVES BEHIND A FORMIDABLE COOL POOL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STABLE AIR AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2 KM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... AND THE GFS
HOLDS ONTO LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THIS LAYER AROUND 295K. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH NO MOISTURE ALOFT AND
STABLE/WARMING MID LEVELS... IT SHOULD HAVE NO SENSIBLE IMPACT IN
THIS AREA. WITH WEAK AND LIGHTLY DIFFLUENT MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS... WE SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE BROUGHT
LOWS UP SLIGHTLY TO 45-49. ON TUESDAY... THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
LEVELS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED WHEREAS THE NAM WANTS TO
START DRYING THIS LAYER OUT. THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTLY
CORRECTLY DEPICTING EROSION OF A DAMMING AIR MASS THAT HAS LOST
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND NO LONGER HAS ANY CONNECTION TO A COOL DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR SOURCE. DESPITE HEATING FROM ABOVE WHICH MAY START TO
BURN OFF THE UPPER PORTION OF THIS MOIST LAYER... GIVEN THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT CAPPING OFF THIS SURFACE-BASED LAYER AND WITH
WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM INHIBITING MIXING... FAVOR A LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS (WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN) WHICH MEANS
HOLDING ONTO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THIS
GREATER CLOUD COVER... HIGHS WILL ACCORDINGLY BE LOWERED... TO
58-65. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT: THE GFS/CANADIAN DEPICT A WEAK 850 MB WARM FRONT
SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE
UNIFORM (YET STILL LIGHT) FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISSOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD FEWER
CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT BUT BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH A
FEATURE THIS FAR OUT... WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS.
LOWS 43-48.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...
WITH THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE HOLDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON ONE MID LEVEL VORTEX
OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY SWINGING EAST THEN NORTH THROUGH
QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE ANOTHER VORTEX DROPS FROM NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
FINALLY TRACKS UP ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP PATTERN AS THE GEFS MEAN
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WITHIN SUCH A FAST FLOW ALOFT BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL SEE A
LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THANKSGIVING DAY... FOLLOWED BY FALLING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
DRY BUT BRISK NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A POLAR-SOURCE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY... THEN INDICATE DRY AND COLDER WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS
WEDNESDAY... SLIGHTLY COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) THANKSGIVING DAY... THEN
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES PLUNGING BELOW 1310 M ON THE GFS AND CANADIAN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL HOLD TEMPS ABOUT ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR
INT/GSO/RDU/FAY...HOWEVER...KRWI MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MOVES INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (< 2F)MAY LEAD TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG AT KRWI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST...INCREASING THE WINDS FROM 5-10 KTS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH...CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  ANY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z MONDAY: A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY
BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE AN ISSUE IF CLEARING OCCURS EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LEP/CBL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 220210
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
910 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 905 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. TWEAKED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE SE COAST WITH ATTENDANT SFC LOW
WELL OFF THE SC COAST. ASSOCD PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDS NORTH TO JUST
OFF THE NC COAST BUT SHUD KEEP PUSHING OUT TO SEA AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES OFFSHORE.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ALSO WELL OUT
AHEAD NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GULF COAST WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNING OUT SOME AFTER THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT AND SHUD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO
MAINLY THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS INSENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. CSTL FRONT TAKES
SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. HAVE
CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN/AND BACK OFF ON RAIN CHCS PARTICULARLY
EARLY IN THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOS TO
MOISTEN ENUF TO SUPPORT PCPN. SOME EARLY (BUT FILTERED) SUNSHINE
WILL AID TEMPERATURE RISE THRU MIDDAY SO MAY BE ABLE TO REACH TO
NEAR 60/LOWER 60S BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS AND PCPN SPREADS INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTN.

SUN NIGHT STILL LOOKS WET AS FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE PEAK OVER
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS SUN
NIGHT ALTHO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN TO REACH FAR NE AREAS.
LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N MON AS MAIN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO VA. HOWEVER EXPECT THERE WILL STILL
BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. FCST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN .75 AND 1.25 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE
WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL
SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A
FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
MAY DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH ALLOWING TEMPS ON MONDAY TO REACH
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DESPITE THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL END MON NIGHT BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGS CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR ON TUE DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER
AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ON TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED SUNSHINE.

SHUD STILL BE ABLE TO ECK OUT A NICE DAY WED (WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S) BEFORE CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA.

A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT
AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS
HEELS THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKND TO BE DRY
AND COOL AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO TAFS THIS EVENING.
SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CLOUD DECKS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z MONDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...GFS LAMP AND NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN
THE PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND GENERAL LACK
OF SUPPORT FOR MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE A BIT FASTER
BRINGING IN THE MID DECK OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DROPPING INTO SUN
AS THE RAIN ADVANCES ON THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXP TO LINGER POTENTIALLY INTO TUE.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THEREAFTER...WITH CLEARING
AND PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER HIGHER TD COULD LEAD TO
OVERNIGHT FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE NT AND WED NT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN STRONG LOW
WELL EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND 1025 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND
PER MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE THERE AT
02Z. SEAS STILL CLOSE TO 6 FEET ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE 20 NM
RANGE WITH 7 FOOT SEAS LINGERING NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...SO WILL
CONTINUE SCA ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...THE WEAK LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES TO OUR N
IS PRODUCING WINDS 20-25KT WINDS MAINLY S OF OREGON INLET. SEAS
HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 5 TO 8 FT THIS AFT...WITH CONDITIONS EXP TO
CHANGE LITTLE THIS EVENING. LATER TNT AS THE LOW MOVES E WE WILL
SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS...THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN UP ESP
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LOW OVER THE
GULF STATES WHICH WILL MOVE E SUN AND OVER THE CAROLINAS BY MON.
THE LOW IS EXP TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT
WEAKENS. THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
HATTERAS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THIS REGION.
HOWEVER THE SE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LOW COULD BRIEFLY GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT. THE N WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 20KT AS THE
LOW PASSES TO THE S. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ABV SCA THROUGH OUT MON
NT.

BY MON THE STRONG HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE E OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 50W WILL PINCH THE GRAD AND
COMBINED WITH SOME HIGHER SEAS OVER THE N ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE
SOME DOUBLE DIGIT SEAS. THE ENE FETCH AROUND THE HIGH WILL STEER A
LOT OF THIS ENERGY TOWARDS THE E COAST...AND THOUGH IT WILL
DIMINISH GREATLY BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST IT COULD ADD SOME
SWELL TO THE SEA HEIGHTS TO THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THE HIGH PRES SLIDING OVER THE REGION WILL AID IN DROPPING WIND
SPEEDS SO COMBINED SEAS COULD DROP BELOW 6FT DURING THIS
TIME...HOWEVER N WATERS COULD REMAIN UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FCST IF WAVEWATCH SEAS WERE ACCURATE. DUE TO LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
OVER THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC CAN`T VERIFY THE INITIAL CONDITIONS
OF WAVEWATCH...SO HAVE SHAVED ABOUT A FOOT OFF THE OUTPUT BY
TUE/WED UNTIL THERE IS MORE SUPPORT OF THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION COULD LEAD
TO CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THU. MOST MODELS
SUPPORT A WEAK LOW PASSING OBX AND STRENGTHENING AT IS MOVES
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING THE STRONGEST
SOLUTIONS OF A COASTAL LOW SKIRTING NC. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT
BEING MUCH FURTHER N THAN OUR LAST COASTAL LOW...FEEL THE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS HERE ARE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE CAA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW THU NT INTO FRI WILL INCREASE TO SCA IN STRONG NW
WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-154.      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CQD/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CTC/SJ
MARINE...CTC/SJ

000
FXUS62 KMHX 220132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
832 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE SE COAST WITH ATTENDANT SFC
LOW WELL OFF THE SC COAST. ASSOCD PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDS NORTH TO
JUST OFF THE NC COAST BUT SHUD KEEP PUSHING OUT TO SEA AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. ALSO MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
RAIN ASSOCD WITH THE GULF SYSTEM SO NO POPS IN FCST TNGT.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ALSO WELL OUT
AHEAD NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GULF COAST WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNING OUT SOME AFTER THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT AND SHUD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO
MAINLY THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS INSENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. CSTL FRONT TAKES
SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. HAVE
CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN/AND BACK OFF ON RAIN CHCS PARTICULARLY
EARLY IN THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOS TO
MOISTEN ENUF TO SUPPORT PCPN. SOME EARLY (BUT FILTERED) SUNSHINE
WILL AID TEMPERATURE RISE THRU MIDDAY SO MAY BE ABLE TO REACH TO
NEAR 60/LOWER 60S BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS AND PCPN SPREADS INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTN.

SUN NIGHT STILL LOOKS WET AS FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE PEAK OVER
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS SUN
NIGHT ALTHO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN TO REACH FAR NE AREAS.
LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N MON AS MAIN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO VA. HOWEVER EXPECT THERE WILL STILL
BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. FCST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN .75 AND 1.25 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE
WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL
SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A
FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
MAY DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH ALLOWING TEMPS ON MONDAY TO REACH
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DESPITE THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL END MON NIGHT BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGS CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR ON TUE DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER
AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ON TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED SUNSHINE.

SHUD STILL BE ABLE TO ECK OUT A NICE DAY WED (WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S) BEFORE CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA.

A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT
AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS
HEELS THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKND TO BE DRY
AND COOL AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO TAFS THIS EVENING.
SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE GRADUAL
LOWERING OF CLOUD DECKS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z MONDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...GFS LAMP AND NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN
THE PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND GENERAL LACK
OF SUPPORT FOR MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE A BIT FASTER
BRINGING IN THE MID DECK OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DROPPING INTO SUN
AS THE RAIN ADVANCES ON THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXP TO LINGER POTENTIALLY INTO TUE.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THEREAFTER...WITH CLEARING
AND PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER HIGHER TD COULD LEAD TO
OVERNIGHT FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE NT AND WED NT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 830 PM SATURDAY...GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN STRONG LOW
WELL EAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND 1025 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE PAMLICO SOUND
PER MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE THERE AT
02Z. SEAS STILL CLOSE TO 6 FEET ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE 20 NM
RANGE WITH 7 FOOT SEAS LINGERING NEAR DIAMOND SHOALS...SO WILL
CONTINUE SCA ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...THE WEAK LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES TO OUR N
IS PRODUCING WINDS 20-25KT WINDS MAINLY S OF OREGON INLET. SEAS
HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 5 TO 8 FT THIS AFT...WITH CONDITIONS EXP TO
CHANGE LITTLE THIS EVENING. LATER TNT AS THE LOW MOVES E WE WILL
SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS...THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN UP ESP
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LOW OVER THE
GULF STATES WHICH WILL MOVE E SUN AND OVER THE CAROLINAS BY MON.
THE LOW IS EXP TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT
WEAKENS. THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
HATTERAS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THIS REGION.
HOWEVER THE SE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LOW COULD BRIEFLY GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT. THE N WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 20KT AS THE
LOW PASSES TO THE S. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ABV SCA THROUGH OUT MON
NT.

BY MON THE STRONG HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE E OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 50W WILL PINCH THE GRAD AND
COMBINED WITH SOME HIGHER SEAS OVER THE N ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE
SOME DOUBLE DIGIT SEAS. THE ENE FETCH AROUND THE HIGH WILL STEER A
LOT OF THIS ENERGY TOWARDS THE E COAST...AND THOUGH IT WILL
DIMINISH GREATLY BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST IT COULD ADD SOME
SWELL TO THE SEA HEIGHTS TO THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THE HIGH PRES SLIDING OVER THE REGION WILL AID IN DROPPING WIND
SPEEDS SO COMBINED SEAS COULD DROP BELOW 6FT DURING THIS
TIME...HOWEVER N WATERS COULD REMAIN UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FCST IF WAVEWATCH SEAS WERE ACCURATE. DUE TO LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
OVER THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC CAN`T VERIFY THE INITIAL CONDITIONS
OF WAVEWATCH...SO HAVE SHAVED ABOUT A FOOT OFF THE OUTPUT BY
TUE/WED UNTIL THERE IS MORE SUPPORT OF THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION COULD LEAD
TO CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THU. MOST MODELS
SUPPORT A WEAK LOW PASSING OBX AND STRENGTHENING AT IS MOVES
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING THE STRONGEST
SOLUTIONS OF A COASTAL LOW SKIRTING NC. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT
BEING MUCH FURTHER N THAN OUR LAST COASTAL LOW...FEEL THE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS HERE ARE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE CAA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW THU NT INTO FRI WILL INCREASE TO SCA IN STRONG NW
WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...CTC/SJ
MARINE...CTC/SJ

000
FXUS62 KRAH 220020
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OH/WV.
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR BUOY 42361 SOUTH OF LA.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TX.
A 90 KT SOUTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GOMEX. A 100
KT NORTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. A RIDGE ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS.

TODAY:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE
INTO LA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE ASSOC SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST GOMEX IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE LA
COAST BY THAT TIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
IN ASSOC/W CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT A STEADY INFLUX OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...AND CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN AOA 15-18 KFT. LIFT TODAY
WILL BE EITHER VERY WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS CURRENTLY A NORTHERN STREAM JET ENTRANCE REGION N/NW OF
CENTRAL NC...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS DO INDICATE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFT/EVE AS A
925-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AHEAD OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW IN LA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
WEAK AND CONFINED WELL SOUTH/SW OF CENTRAL NC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS AFT/EVE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPLICATED
PRIMARILY BY BROKEN SKIES ASSOC/W UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THICKNESSES WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHS IN THE ~63F RANGE WITH FULL SUN...
HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND BROKEN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...A RANGE OF 60-63F LOOKS MORE REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
EVEN THAT COULD BE WARM BY 1-2F DEPENDING ON THE OPACITY OF CLOUD
COVER.

TONIGHT:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ENE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ATTENDANT
SFC LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO WEAKEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT MOVES ALONG
A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS A 925-850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
AL/GA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL S/SW OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
LARGELY CONFINED TO AL/GA AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UPSTREAM
OF THE AREA...AND THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR
W/REGARD TO LOW TEMPS. A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S.

SUNDAY:
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 500 MB LOW
DEAMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES N/NE
INTO NORTHERN AL/GA AND EASTERN TN. THE ATTENDANT GULF COAST SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FL/AL COAST. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY SUN IN ASSOC/W WEAK UPPER
FORCING ASSOC/W THE DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH A PROMINENT SFC RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL BE RATHER ANEMIC SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING FROM THE SOUTH/SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
925-850MB WARM FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SC AND THE
MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS QUITE DELAYED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING IN THE SOUTH/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL/LIKELY) IN THE SW
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE N/NE OF THE
TRIANGLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10-0.25" IN
THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURE FCST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ON
SUN...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND THAT LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE BASED ON THE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER
TO AROUND 1033 MB AND DRIFTS FROM OVER MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEAKENS GRADUALLY WHILE THE SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OFF THE SC COAST WITH ITS CENTER THEN
PASSING NEAR THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH MONDAY. THE SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER
CENTRAL NC FINALLY BEGINS TO SATURATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 290K-300K
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE
DPVA DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
DAMPENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS UP THROUGH EASTERN TN
AND WESTERN NC... AND UPPER DIVERGENCE (WHILE MAXIMIZED OVER NC AT
06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) TRENDS WEAKER AS WELL. AND BY THE TIME THE LOWEST
1-2 KM BECOMES SATURATED... WE LOSE THE MOISTURE ALOFT AS THE VERY
DRY AIR NOW OVER NM/WEST TX/OK PUNCHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER LOW QPF...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL FORCING FEATURES LINE UP WELL...
WE STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... AND WILL RETAIN CATEGORICAL POPS... MAINLY
FROM LATE EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
POPS TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS 46-51. THEN WITH THICK OVERCAST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY... LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND THE COASTAL LOW
HOLDING OFFSHORE... TEMPS SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE MONDAY. HIGHS
49-59... AND EVEN THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
COLD DOME IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. THE PARENT HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE WEDGE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER IT LEAVES BEHIND A FORMIDABLE COOL POOL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STABLE AIR AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2 KM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... AND THE GFS
HOLDS ONTO LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THIS LAYER AROUND 295K. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH NO MOISTURE ALOFT AND
STABLE/WARMING MID LEVELS... IT SHOULD HAVE NO SENSIBLE IMPACT IN
THIS AREA. WITH WEAK AND LIGHTLY DIFFLUENT MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS... WE SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE BROUGHT
LOWS UP SLIGHTLY TO 45-49. ON TUESDAY... THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
LEVELS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED WHEREAS THE NAM WANTS TO
START DRYING THIS LAYER OUT. THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTLY
CORRECTLY DEPICTING EROSION OF A DAMMING AIR MASS THAT HAS LOST
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND NO LONGER HAS ANY CONNECTION TO A COOL DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR SOURCE. DESPITE HEATING FROM ABOVE WHICH MAY START TO
BURN OFF THE UPPER PORTION OF THIS MOIST LAYER... GIVEN THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT CAPPING OFF THIS SURFACE-BASED LAYER AND WITH
WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM INHIBITING MIXING... FAVOR A LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS (WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN) WHICH MEANS
HOLDING ONTO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THIS
GREATER CLOUD COVER... HIGHS WILL ACCORDINGLY BE LOWERED... TO
58-65. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT: THE GFS/CANADIAN DEPICT A WEAK 850 MB WARM FRONT
SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE
UNIFORM (YET STILL LIGHT) FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISSOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD FEWER
CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT BUT BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH A
FEATURE THIS FAR OUT... WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS.
LOWS 43-48.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...
WITH THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE HOLDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON ONE MID LEVEL VORTEX
OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY SWINGING EAST THEN NORTH THROUGH
QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE ANOTHER VORTEX DROPS FROM NEAR LAKE
WINNEPEG THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
FINALLY TRACKS UP ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP PATTERN AS THE GEFS MEAN
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WITHIN SUCH A FAST FLOW ALOFT BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL SEE A
LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THANKSGIVING DAY... FOLLOWED BY FALLING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
DRY BUT BRISK NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A POLAR-SOURCE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY... THEN INDICATE DRY AND COLDER WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS
WEDNESDAY... SLIGHTLY COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) THANKSGIVING DAY... THEN
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES PLUNGING BELOW 1310 M ON THE GFS AND CANADIAN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL HOLD TEMPS ABOUT ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR
INT/GSO/RDU/FAY...HOWEVER...KRWI MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AROUND SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH MOVES INTO THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS (< 2F)MAY LEAD TO LOW
STRATUS AND FOG AT KRWI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SE
COAST...INCREASING THE WINDS FROM 5-10 KTS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH...CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  ANY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z MONDAY: A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY
BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE AN ISSUE IF CLEARING OCCURS EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...LEP/CBL

000
FXUS62 KILM 212335
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
635 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. A BRIEF WARM UP IS
EXPECTED MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL USHER IN
SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING OVER
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER LOUISIANA
ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...THE BULK OF THIS
MOISTURE IS AT AND ABOVE THE 500 MB LEVEL CURRENTLY. MODELS SHOW THE
DEPTH OF MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA LATE. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA
IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWING THE FRONT EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING NO FARTHER EAST THAN BILOXI MS
CURRENTLY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PRESENT AN INTERESTING PROBLEM. MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL REACH THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS WHILE THE
RAW NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW LOWS IN THE 50-55 RANGE. THE 12Z
CANADIAN IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. INSULATING INFLUENCE FROM
CLOUDS WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WEAK COOL ADVECTION BELOW 850 MB.
OUR FORECAST IS FOR UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF THE PRECIP ON SUN...WITH LIGHT PRECIP NOW SPREADING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...COVERING
ALL OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT. DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
CATEGORICAL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUN NIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR ON MON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB
SPREADING OVER THE AREA MON MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR WILL
BRING AN END TO MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO
MON...BUT THINK MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE OVER BY LATE MORNING.
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
MON AND THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. WEAK OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH
SOME PATCHES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS BATCH OF PRECIP WILL MEASURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY...THOUGH COASTAL
SITE MAY FLIRT WITH CLIMO ON MON DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW
GETS TO THE COAST. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BOTH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES THROUGH WED. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN
CLOSER TO A HALF INCH WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE HOLDING
ON THROUGH WED MORNING. WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE AND DECENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE WILL HOLD ON TO LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF TUES. PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL THURS INTO FRI WHEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
TAKES OVER THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO THURS AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS..MAY SEE A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH LONGER WAVE H5 TROUGH
GIVING PUSH OF DRIER AIR INITIALLY...BUT THEN WINDS BACK ON THURS
TAPPING INTO A LITTLE GULF MOISTURE. THIS REMAINS MAINLY OFF
SHORE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PCP FOR THURS
AFTN. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS FOR THURS. THEN PLENTY
OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THURS INTO
FRI. BY FRI HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SCOURING OUT ALL THE WEATHER AND BRINGING DRY AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT BY SAT AFTN SHOULD GET STRONGER
AND DEEPER LAYER COLD AIR STREAMING INTO THE CAROLINAS IN A DEEP
LAYER NW FLOW AS H5 TROUGH CLEARS THE COAST. EXPECT DRY BUT COLD
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL HOLD AROUND NORMAL OR ABOVE WITH SUNNIEST AND WARMEST DAY
EXPECTED ON WED. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS DROP
BELOW 0C BY FRI EVENING AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT
TEMPS DOWN IN THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT
NIGHT. DAY TIME HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BELOW 60
INLAND TO JUST NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS IS PROVIDING A DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. MOISTURE NEAR AN
INVERSION AROUND 5K COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED TO TEMPO
CEILINGS AT THAT LEVEL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER SUNRISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z AT THE TERMINALS WITH MID
LEVEL CEILINGS 8-12K DEVELOPING AS VIRGA OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP
CEILINGS 4-5K AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE INVERSION LEVEL. AFTER 18Z
SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS THE LOWER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CEILINGS BY LATE AFTERNOON AT FLO/CRE/MYR...WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR MONDAY. IFR DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT NEARLY 500 MILES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DEVELOPED A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW IS STILL OUT THERE ALTHOUGH ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER IS BECOMING SMALLER. ATTENTION IS NOW SHIFTING TO THE GULF
COAST WHERE A NEW LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EAST TO AROUND MOBILE AL BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A HEALTHY NE WIND BLOWING THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH SOME 25
KT GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRYING PAN SHOALS VICINITY.

OUTPUT FROM OUR LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL WAS ALMOST PERFECT ON
INITIALIZATION AND WILL BE USED FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE NC WATERS FOR 6 FT SEAS
OUT BEYOND 15 MILES FROM SHORE. WE WILL ALSO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING
THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET UNTIL THE 6 FT SEAS DIE
AWAY THERE. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO PASS EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. PINCHED GRADIENT ON SUN WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SEAS
4 TO 6 FT INTO SUN NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
ACROSS NC WATERS...SO WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR ZONES 250 AND 252. WILL
LIKELY NEED A SCEC FOR SC ZONES WHEN THE TIME COMES. GRADIENT
RELAXES WHEN SURFACE LOW PASSES THE WATERS EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MON...KEEPING LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH. LIGHTER
WINDS...10 TO 15 KT MON AND MON NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL PRETTY QUICKLY...TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
MON EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. OVERALL  EXPECT LIGHT OFF
SHORE FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT. BY THURS AFTN GRADIENT MAY INCREASE AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRI AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. MAY SEE SEAS UP NEAR 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR AMZ254.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KILM 212118
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
400 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. A BRIEF WARMUP IS
EXPECTED MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL USHER IN
SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING OVER
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER LOUISIANA
ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...THE BULK OF THIS
MOISTURE IS AT AND ABOVE THE 500 MB LEVEL CURRENTLY. MODELS SHOW THE
DEPTH OF MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
ALABAMA LATE. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA
IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWING THE FRONT EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING NO FARTHER EAST THAN BILOXI MS
CURRENTLY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PRESENT AN INTERESTING PROBLEM. MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL REACH THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS WHILE THE
RAW NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW LOWS IN THE 50-55 RANGE. THE 12Z
CANADIAN IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. INSULATING INFLUENCE FROM
CLOUDS WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WEAK COOL ADVECTION BELOW 850 MB.
OUR FORECAST IS FOR UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF THE PRECIP ON SUN...WITH LIGHT PRECIP NOW SPREADING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...COVERING
ALL OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT. DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
CATEGORICAL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUN NIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR ON MON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB
SPREADING OVER THE AREA MON MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR WILL
BRING AN END TO MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO
MON...BUT THINK MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE OVER BY LATE MORNING.
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
MON AND THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. WEAK OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH
SOME PATCHES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS BATCH OF PRECIP WILL MEASURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY...THOUGH COASTAL
SITE MAY FLIRT WITH CLIMO ON MON DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW
GETS TO THE COAST. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BOTH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES THROUGH WED. PCP WATER VALUES WILL BE DOWN
CLOSER TO A HALF INCH WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...BUT MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE HOLDING
ON THROUGH WED MORNING. WITH SHALLOW COOL AIR IN PLACE AND DECENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE WILL HOLD ON TO LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH MUCH OF TUES. PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL THURS INTO FRI WHEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
TAKES OVER THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT OR PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE WED INTO THURS AS COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LOOKING AT MID TO UPPER
LEVELS..MAY SEE A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH LONGER WAVE H5 TROUGH
GIVING PUSH OF DRIER AIR INITIALLY...BUT THEN WINDS BACK ON THURS
TAPPING INTO A LITTLE GULF MOISTURE. THIS REMAINS MAINLY OFF
SHORE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PCP FOR THURS
AFTN. THEREFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS FOR THURS. THEN PLENTY
OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONT LATE THURS INTO
FRI. BY FRI HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SCOURING OUT ALL THE WEATHER AND BRINGING DRY AND COOL
HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT BY SAT AFTN SHOULD GET STRONGER
AND DEEPER LAYER COLD AIR STREAMING INTO THE CAROLINAS IN A DEEP
LAYER NW FLOW AS H5 TROUGH CLEARS THE COAST. EXPECT DRY BUT COLD
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL HOLD AROUND NORMAL OR ABOVE WITH SUNNIEST AND WARMEST DAY
EXPECTED ON WED. BY LATE THURS INTO FRI COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS DROP
BELOW 0C BY FRI EVENING AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT
TEMPS DOWN IN THE 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT
NIGHT. DAY TIME HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BELOW 60
INLAND TO JUST NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE OFFSHORE IS
STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INLAND...AND COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE ONLY
REPORTED SCT CIGS TODAY. STILL EXPECT BKN 5K FOOT CIGS AT
ILM/CRE/MYR THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. FLO/LBT ONLY DEALING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CI STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING GULF OF MEXICO
LOW PRESSURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY OUT OF THE N/NE AT 8 TO 14
KT ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN WHILE
INSOLATION HELPS PROMOTE MIXING. TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...BUT
LIKELY NOT DECOUPLE...SO EXPECT NE WINDS AT 4 TO 7 KT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. NO FOG TONIGHT.

VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN TOMORROW AFTN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED
VCSH TO FLO BY 18Z TOMORROW. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 4K TO 5K
FEET EVERYWHERE. WILL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS RAIN POTENTIAL AS THE
EVENT GETS CLOSER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL IFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT NEARLY 500 MILES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DEVELOPED A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW IS STILL OUT THERE ALTHOUGH ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER IS BECOMING SMALLER. ATTENTION IS NOW SHIFTING TO THE GULF
COAST WHERE A NEW LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EAST TO AROUND MOBILE AL BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A HEALTHY NE WIND BLOWING THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH SOME 25
KT GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRYING PAN SHOALS VICINITY.

OUTPUT FROM OUR LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL WAS ALMOST PERFECT ON
INITIALIZATION AND WILL BE USED FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE NC WATERS FOR 6 FT SEAS
OUT BEYOND 15 MILES FROM SHORE. WE WILL ALSO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING
THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET UNTIL THE 6 FT SEAS DIE
AWAY THERE. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO PASS EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. PINCHED GRADIENT ON SUN WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SEAS
4 TO 6 FT INTO SUN NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
ACROSS NC WATERS...SO WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR ZONES 250 AND 252. WILL
LIKELY NEED A SCEC FOR SC ZONES WHEN THE TIME COMES. GRADIENT
RELAXES WHEN SURFACE LOW PASSES THE WATERS EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MON...KEEPING LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH. LIGHTER
WINDS...10 TO 15 KT MON AND MON NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL PRETTY QUICKLY...TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
MON EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED. OVERALL  EXPECT LIGHT OFF
SHORE FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY THURS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 3
FT. BY THURS AFTN GRADIENT MAY INCREASE AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST AND COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE THURS INTO FRI AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH. MAY SEE SEAS UP NEAR 4 TO 5
FT IN OUTER WATERS IN STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KMHX 212100
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
400 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING OFF THE SE COAST WITH ATTENDANT SFC
LOW WELL OFF THE SC COAST. ASSOCD PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDS NORTH TO
JUST OFF THE NC COAST BUT SHUD KEEP PUSHING OUT TO SEA AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. ALSO MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
RAIN ASSOCD WITH THE GULF SYSTEM SO NO POPS IN FCST TNGT.

HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE AND ALSO WELL OUT
AHEAD NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THRU THE GULF COAST WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE THINNING OUT SOME AFTER THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT AND SHUD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO
MAINLY THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ON SUNDAY AS INSENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE AREA. CSTL FRONT TAKES
SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. HAVE
CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN/AND BACK OFF ON RAIN CHCS PARTICULARLY
EARLY IN THE DAY AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOS TO
MOISTEN ENUF TO SUPPORT PCPN. SOME EARLY (BUT FILTERED) SUNSHINE
WILL AID TEMPERATURE RISE THRU MIDDAY SO MAY BE ABLE TO REACH TO
NEAR 60/LOWER 60S BEFORE THE THICKER CLOUDS AND PCPN SPREADS INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTN.

SUN NIGHT STILL LOOKS WET AS FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE PEAK OVER
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS SUN
NIGHT ALTHO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR PCPN TO REACH FAR NE AREAS.
LOWS SUN NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 50S.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM S TO N MON AS MAIN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO VA. HOWEVER EXPECT THERE WILL STILL
BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN. FCST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN .75 AND 1.25 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE MONDAY MORN COMMUTE
WILL BE AFFECTED WITH WET ROADS AND PUDDLING BUT THIS RAINFALL
SHUD NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS AS THIS IS A
FAIRLY QUICK HITTING EVENT. TRACK OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
MAY DRAW IN SOME OCEAN WARMTH ALLOWING TEMPS ON MONDAY TO REACH
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DESPITE THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL END MON NIGHT BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGS CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR ON TUE DUE TO RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER
AND LOWERED MAX TEMPS ON TUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED SUNSHINE.

SHUD STILL BE ABLE TO ECK OUT A NICE DAY WED (WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S) BEFORE CLOUDS AND PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA.

A SOLN CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE PREFERRED
FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SFC LOW SHUD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO PROVIDE THE
AREA WITH DECENT PCPN CHCS (ESP NEAR THE COAST) LATER WED NIGHT
AND THRU THANKSGIVING. THIS SYSTEM SHUD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AS A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS CLOSELY ON ITS
HEELS THU NIGHT. EXPECT THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKND TO BE DRY
AND COOL AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...GFS LAMP AND NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN
THE PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND GENERAL LACK
OF SUPPORT FOR MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE A BIT FASTER
BRINGING IN THE MID DECK OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DROPPING INTO SUN
AS THE RAIN ADVANCES ON THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXP TO LINGER POTENTIALLY INTO TUE.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THEREAFTER...WITH CLEARING
AND PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER HIGHER TD COULD LEAD TO
OVERNIGHT FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE NT AND WED NT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...THE WEAK LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES TO OUR N
IS PRODUCING WINDS 20-25KT WINDS MAINLY S OF OREGON INLET. SEAS
HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 5 TO 8 FT THIS AFT...WITH CONDITIONS EXP TO
CHANGE LITTLE THIS EVENING. LATER TNT AS THE LOW MOVES E WE WILL
SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS...THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN UP ESP
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LOW OVER THE
GULF STATES WHICH WILL MOVE E SUN AND OVER THE CAROLINAS BY MON.
THE LOW IS EXP TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT
WEAKENS. THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
HATTERAS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THIS REGION.
HOWEVER THE SE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LOW COULD BRIEFLY GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT. THE N WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 20KT AS THE
LOW PASSES TO THE S. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ABV SCA THROUGH OUT MON
NT.

BY MON THE STRONG HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE E OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 50W WILL PINCH THE GRAD AND
COMBINED WITH SOME HIGHER SEAS OVER THE N ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE
SOME DOUBLE DIGIT SEAS. THE ENE FETCH AROUND THE HIGH WILL STEER A
LOT OF THIS ENERGY TOWARDS THE E COAST...AND THOUGH IT WILL
DIMINISH GREATLY BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST IT COULD ADD SOME
SWELL TO THE SEA HEIGHTS TO THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THE HIGH PRES SLIDING OVER THE REGION WILL AID IN DROPPING WIND
SPEEDS SO COMBINED SEAS COULD DROP BELOW 6FT DURING THIS
TIME...HOWEVER N WATERS COULD REMAIN UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FCST IF WAVEWATCH SEAS WERE ACCURATE. DUE TO LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
OVER THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC CAN`T VERIFY THE INITIAL CONDITIONS
OF WAVEWATCH...SO HAVE SHAVED ABOUT A FOOT OFF THE OUTPUT BY
TUE/WED UNTIL THERE IS MORE SUPPORT OF THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION COULD LEAD
TO CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THU. MOST MODELS
SUPPORT A WEAK LOW PASSING OBX AND STRENGTHENING AT IS MOVES
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING THE STRONGEST
SOLUTIONS OF A COASTAL LOW SKIRTING NC. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT
BEING MUCH FURTHER N THAN OUR LAST COASTAL LOW...FEEL THE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS HERE ARE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE CAA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW THU NT INTO FRI WILL INCREASE TO SCA IN STRONG NW
WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ

000
FXUS62 KILM 212001
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
301 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. A BRIEF WARMUP IS
EXPECTED MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL USHER IN
SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS IS INCREASING OVER THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER LOUISIANA ADVECTS
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800 MB...THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS AT
AND ABOVE THE 500 MB LEVEL CURRENTLY. MODELS SHOW THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA LATE.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
RECENT RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWING THE FRONT EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING NO FARTHER EAST THAN BILOXI MS CURRENTLY.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PRESENT AN INTERESTING PROBLEM. MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL REACH THE MID 40S IN MOST AREAS WHILE THE
RAW NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW LOWS IN THE 50-55 RANGE. THE 12Z
CANADIAN IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. INSULATING INFLUENCE FROM
CLOUDS WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY WEAK COOL ADVECTION BELOW 850 MB.
OUR FORECAST IS FOR UPPER 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS DELAYED ARRIVAL
OF THE PRECIP ON SUN...WITH LIGHT PRECIP NOW SPREADING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUN MORNING. LIGHT PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...COVERING
ALL OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RAIN ARRIVES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON WITH INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT. DELAYED ARRIVAL OF
CATEGORICAL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/SC COAST SUN NIGHT WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE FEAR ON MON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB
SPREADING OVER THE AREA MON MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR WILL
BRING AN END TO MEASURABLE PRECIP. HAVE EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO
MON...BUT THINK MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE OVER BY LATE MORNING.
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
MON AND THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. WEAK OVERRUNNING WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH
SOME PATCHES OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS BATCH OF PRECIP WILL MEASURE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY...THOUGH COASTAL
SITE MAY FLIRT WITH CLIMO ON MON DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW
GETS TO THE COAST. CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO BOTH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MANAGES TO BUILD ON
TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING A MILD AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO
BRING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S AHEAD OF WHAT WILL END UP BEING A
PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ITS PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECWMF HAS
INDICATED OTHERWISE FOR A FEW RUNS NOW BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN
DISPLAYING A VERY WET BIAS FOR SOME TIME LOCALLY IN SUCH SETUPS.
DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO LOW 60S BY DAY AND UPPER 30S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE OFFSHORE IS
STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INLAND...AND COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE ONLY
REPORTED SCT CIGS TODAY. STILL EXPECT BKN 5K FOOT CIGS AT
ILM/CRE/MYR THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. FLO/LBT ONLY DEALING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CI STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING GULF OF MEXICO
LOW PRESSURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY OUT OF THE N/NE AT 8 TO 14
KT ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN WHILE
INSOLATION HELPS PROMOTE MIXING. TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...BUT
LIKELY NOT DECOUPLE...SO EXPECT NE WINDS AT 4 TO 7 KT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. NO FOG TONIGHT.

VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN TOMORROW AFTN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED
VCSH TO FLO BY 18Z TOMORROW. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 4K TO 5K
FEET EVERYWHERE. WILL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS RAIN POTENTIAL AS THE
EVENT GETS CLOSER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL IFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT NEARLY 500 MILES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST DEVELOPED A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW IS STILL OUT THERE ALTHOUGH ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER IS BECOMING SMALLER. ATTENTION IS NOW SHIFTING TO THE GULF
COAST WHERE A NEW LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EAST TO AROUND MOBILE AL BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A HEALTHY NE WIND BLOWING THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH SOME 25
KT GUSTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRYING PAN SHOALS VICINITY.

OUTPUT FROM OUR LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL WAS ALMOST PERFECT ON
INITIALIZATION AND WILL BE USED FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE NC WATERS FOR 6 FT SEAS
OUT BEYOND 15 MILES FROM SHORE. WE WILL ALSO KEEP AN ADVISORY GOING
THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET UNTIL THE 6 FT SEAS DIE
AWAY THERE. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO PASS EAST OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. PINCHED GRADIENT ON SUN WILL KEEP WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH SEAS
4 TO 6 FT INTO SUN NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE
ACROSS NC WATERS...SO WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR ZONES 250 AND 252. WILL
LIKELY NEED A SCEC FOR SC ZONES WHEN THE TIME COMES. GRADIENT
RELAXES WHEN SURFACE LOW PASSES THE WATERS EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MON...KEEPING LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH. LIGHTER
WINDS...10 TO 15 KT MON AND MON NIGHT...AND A SLIGHT OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO FALL PRETTY QUICKLY...TO 2 TO 4 FT BY
MON EVENING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING
A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. CHANGES
MAY BE UNDERWAY COME WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND
THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KRAH 211943
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OH/WV.
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR BUOY 42361 SOUTH OF LA.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TX.
A 90 KT SOUTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GOMEX. A 100
KT NORTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. A RIDGE ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS.

TODAY:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE
INTO LA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE ASSOC SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST GOMEX IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE LA
COAST BY THAT TIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
IN ASSOC/W CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT A STEADY INFLUX OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...AND CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN AOA 15-18 KFT. LIFT TODAY
WILL BE EITHER VERY WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS CURRENTLY A NORTHERN STREAM JET ENTRANCE REGION N/NW OF
CENTRAL NC...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS DO INDICATE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFT/EVE AS A
925-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AHEAD OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW IN LA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
WEAK AND CONFINED WELL SOUTH/SW OF CENTRAL NC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS AFT/EVE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPLICATED
PRIMARILY BY BROKEN SKIES ASSOC/W UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THICKNESSES WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHS IN THE ~63F RANGE WITH FULL SUN...
HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND BROKEN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...A RANGE OF 60-63F LOOKS MORE REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
EVEN THAT COULD BE WARM BY 1-2F DEPENDING ON THE OPACITY OF CLOUD
COVER.

TONIGHT:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ENE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ATTENDANT
SFC LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO WEAKEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT MOVES ALONG
A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS A 925-850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
AL/GA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL S/SW OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
LARGELY CONFINED TO AL/GA AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UPSTREAM
OF THE AREA...AND THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR
W/REGARD TO LOW TEMPS. A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S.

SUNDAY:
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 500 MB LOW
DEAMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES N/NE
INTO NORTHERN AL/GA AND EASTERN TN. THE ATTENDANT GULF COAST SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FL/AL COAST. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY SUN IN ASSOC/W WEAK UPPER
FORCING ASSOC/W THE DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH A PROMINENT SFC RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL BE RATHER ANEMIC SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING FROM THE SOUTH/SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
925-850MB WARM FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SC AND THE
MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS QUITE DELAYED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING IN THE SOUTH/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL/LIKELY) IN THE SW
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE N/NE OF THE
TRIANGLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10-0.25" IN
THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURE FCST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ON
SUN...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND THAT LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE BASED ON THE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER
TO AROUND 1033 MB AND DRIFTS FROM OVER MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEAKENS GRADUALLY WHILE THE SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OFF THE SC COAST WITH ITS CENTER THEN
PASSING NEAR THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH MONDAY. THE SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER
CENTRAL NC FINALLY BEGINS TO SATURATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 290K-300K
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE
DPVA DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
DAMPENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS UP THROUGH EASTERN TN
AND WESTERN NC... AND UPPER DIVERGENCE (WHILE MAXIMIZED OVER NC AT
06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) TRENDS WEAKER AS WELL. AND BY THE TIME THE LOWEST
1-2 KM BECOMES SATURATED... WE LOSE THE MOISTURE ALOFT AS THE VERY
DRY AIR NOW OVER NM/WEST TX/OK PUNCHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER LOW QPF...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL FORCING FEATURES LINE UP WELL...
WE STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... AND WILL RETAIN CATEGORICAL POPS... MAINLY
FROM LATE EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
POPS TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS 46-51. THEN WITH THICK OVERCAST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY... LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND THE COASTAL LOW
HOLDING OFFSHORE... TEMPS SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE MONDAY. HIGHS
49-59... AND EVEN THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
COLD DOME IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. THE PARENT HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE WEDGE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER IT LEAVES BEHIND A FORMIDABLE COOL POOL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STABLE AIR AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2 KM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... AND THE GFS
HOLDS ONTO LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THIS LAYER AROUND 295K. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH NO MOISTURE ALOFT AND
STABLE/WARMING MID LEVELS... IT SHOULD HAVE NO SENSIBLE IMPACT IN
THIS AREA. WITH WEAK AND LIGHTLY DIFFLUENT MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS... WE SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE BROUGHT
LOWS UP SLIGHTLY TO 45-49. ON TUESDAY... THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
LEVELS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED WHEREAS THE NAM WANTS TO
START DRYING THIS LAYER OUT. THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTING
CORRECTLY DEPICTING EROSION OF A DAMMING AIR MASS THAT HAS LOST
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND NO LONGER HAS ANY CONNECTION TO A COOL DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR SOURCE. DESPITE HEATING FROM ABOVE WHICH MAY START TO
BURN OFF THE UPPER PORTION OF THIS MOIST LAYER... GIVEN THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT CAPPING OFF THIS SURFACE-BASED LAYER AND WITH
WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM INHIBITING MIXING... FAVOR A LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS (WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN) WHICH MEANS
HOLDING ONTO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THIS
GREATER CLOUD COVER... HIGHS WILL ACCORDINGLY BE LOWERED... TO
58-65. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT: THE GFS/CANADIAN DEPICT A WEAK 850 MB WARM FRONT
SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD LEADING TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE
UNIFORM (YET STILL LIGHT) FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MORNING. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISSOLUTION OF THE LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA. WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD FEWER
CLOUDS IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT BUT BASED ON UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH A
FEATURE THIS FAR OUT... WILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS.
LOWS 43-48.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS DEEP TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...
WITH THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE HOLDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON ONE MID LEVEL VORTEX
OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY WEDNESDAY SWINGING EAST THEN NORTH THROUGH
QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY... WHILE ANOTHER VORTEX DROPS FROM NEAR LAKE
WINNEPEG THROUGH THE MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
FINALLY TRACKS UP ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP PATTERN AS THE GEFS MEAN
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP TO 1-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO PINPOINT
WITHIN SUCH A FAST FLOW ALOFT BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE`LL SEE A
LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THANKSGIVING DAY... FOLLOWED BY FALLING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
DRY BUT BRISK NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS A POLAR-SOURCE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY... THEN INDICATE DRY AND COLDER WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS
WEDNESDAY... SLIGHTLY COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) THANKSGIVING DAY... THEN
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES PLUNGING BELOW 1310 M ON THE GFS AND CANADIAN BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL HOLD TEMPS ABOUT ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15-18 KFT RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...
HOWEVER...ANY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF
THE AREA FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...WITH MVFR/IFR AND PERHAPS
LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS/FOG/DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A SATURATED WEDGE OF COOL AIR (CAD WEDGE)
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK (WED) IN ASSOC/W A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KMHX 211921
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
221 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE COOL NE FLOW REGIME...PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WEAK
THICKNESS RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ANTHR 5-10 DEGS
THIS AFTN. NAM FCST SOUNDING CONT TO SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LYR
NEAR 5000 FT THIS AFTN SO EXPECT WILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATO-
CU...WILL ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY BUT EXPECT ENUF PEAKS
OF SUN TO GET HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT AS BEGIN TO SEE LOW
LVL MOISTURE INCREASE PLUS WILL HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WELL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRT WAVE. CONT PREV FCST OF SLIGHT POP LATE
TONIGHT SRN TIER. LOWS MAINLY UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S. RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY AS INSENT LIFT INCREASES OVER THE
AREA AS CSTL FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SRT WAVE. CONT LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC NE CST LATER SUNDAY. SUN
NIGHT LOOKS WET AS ISENT LIFT CONTS WITH INCREASING MID/UPR
SUPPORT WITH SRT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NW. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
ALL AREAS SUN NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRAD DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE MON
HOWEVER WILL STILL HAVE GOOD CVRG EARLY AND CONT CATEGORICAL NE
CST TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE WITH POPS DECREASING TO CHC LATE.
TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS TO AVG OUT IN 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE AND
DESPITE VERY WET GROUND MANY AREAS SHLD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. HIGHS BOTH SUN AND MON WITH CLOUDS...PRECIP AND NE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL END MON
NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE AND WED EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. IMPRESSIVE SRT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND
MOVE OFFSHORE FRI. MDLS DIFFER WITH GFS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE
AND BULK OF PRECIP OFFSHORE. EMCWF IS WETTER...ESPCLY CST WITH
MOISTURE COMING IN OFF ATLC. CURRENTLY HAVE CHC POPS THU AND WILL
NOT CHANGE UNTIL GET MORE CLARITY FROM MDLS. COOLER AND DRY FRI IN
WAKE OF FRONT/SRT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...GFS LAMP AND NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN
THE PROGRESSION OF THE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AND GENERAL LACK
OF SUPPORT FOR MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. HAVE GONE A BIT FASTER
BRINGING IN THE MID DECK OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUDS DROPPING INTO SUN
AS THE RAIN ADVANCES ON THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SUN
INTO MON...WITH LOW CLOUDS EXP TO LINGER POTENTIALLY INTO TUE.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THEREAFTER...WITH CLEARING
AND PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER HIGHER TD COULD LEAD TO
OVERNIGHT FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE NT AND WED NT.


&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...THE WEAK LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES TO OUR N
IS PRODUCING WINDS 20-25KT WINDS MAINLY S OF OREGON INLET. SEAS
HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 5 TO 8 FT THIS AFT...WITH CONDITIONS EXP TO
CHANGE LITTLE THIS EVENING. LATER TNT AS THE LOW MOVES E WE WILL
SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS...THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN UP ESP
SOUTH. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LOW OVER THE
GULF STATES WHICH WILL MOVE E SUN AND OVER THE CAROLINAS BY MON.
THE LOW IS EXP TO REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT
WEAKENS. THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
HATTERAS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THIS REGION.
HOWEVER THE SE WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LOW COULD BRIEFLY GUST
TO SMALL CRAFT. THE N WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 20KT AS THE
LOW PASSES TO THE S. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN ABV SCA THROUGH OUT MON
NT.

BY MON THE STRONG HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE E OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 50W WILL PINCH THE GRAD AND
COMBINED WITH SOME HIGHER SEAS OVER THE N ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE
SOME DOUBLE DIGIT SEAS. THE ENE FETCH AROUND THE HIGH WILL STEER A
LOT OF THIS ENERGY TOWARDS THE E COAST...AND THOUGH IT WILL
DIMINISH GREATLY BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST IT COULD ADD SOME
SWELL TO THE SEA HEIGHTS TO THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THE HIGH PRES SLIDING OVER THE REGION WILL AID IN DROPPING WIND
SPEEDS SO COMBINED SEAS COULD DROP BELOW 6FT DURING THIS
TIME...HOWEVER N WATERS COULD REMAIN UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FCST IF WAVEWATCH SEAS WERE ACCURATE. DUE TO LIMITED OBSERVATIONS
OVER THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC CAN`T VERIFY THE INITIAL CONDITIONS
OF WAVEWATCH...SO HAVE SHAVED ABOUT A FOOT OFF THE OUTPUT BY
TUE/WED UNTIL THERE IS MORE SUPPORT OF THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION COULD LEAD
TO CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THU. MOST MODELS
SUPPORT A WEAK LOW PASSING OBX AND STRENGTHENING AT IS MOVES
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING THE STRONGEST
SOLUTIONS OF A COASTAL LOW SKIRTING NC. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT
BEING MUCH FURTHER N THAN OUR LAST COASTAL LOW...FEEL THE WEAKER
SOLUTIONS HERE ARE MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE CAA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW THU NT INTO FRI WILL INCREASE TO SCA IN STRONG NW
WINDS.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ

000
FXUS62 KRAH 211839
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OH/WV.
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR BUOY 42361 SOUTH OF LA.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TX.
A 90 KT SOUTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GOMEX. A 100
KT NORTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. A RIDGE ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS.

TODAY:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE
INTO LA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE ASSOC SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST GOMEX IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE LA
COAST BY THAT TIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
IN ASSOC/W CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT A STEADY INFLUX OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...AND CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN AOA 15-18 KFT. LIFT TODAY
WILL BE EITHER VERY WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS CURRENTLY A NORTHERN STREAM JET ENTRANCE REGION N/NW OF
CENTRAL NC...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS DO INDICATE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFT/EVE AS A
925-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AHEAD OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW IN LA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
WEAK AND CONFINED WELL SOUTH/SW OF CENTRAL NC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS AFT/EVE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPLICATED
PRIMARILY BY BROKEN SKIES ASSOC/W UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THICKNESSES WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHS IN THE ~63F RANGE WITH FULL SUN...
HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND BROKEN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...A RANGE OF 60-63F LOOKS MORE REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
EVEN THAT COULD BE WARM BY 1-2F DEPENDING ON THE OPACITY OF CLOUD
COVER.

TONIGHT:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ENE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ATTENDANT
SFC LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO WEAKEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT MOVES ALONG
A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS A 925-850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
AL/GA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL S/SW OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
LARGELY CONFINED TO AL/GA AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UPSTREAM
OF THE AREA...AND THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR
W/REGARD TO LOW TEMPS. A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S.

SUNDAY:
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 500 MB LOW
DEAMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES N/NE
INTO NORTHERN AL/GA AND EASTERN TN. THE ATTENDANT GULF COAST SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FL/AL COAST. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY SUN IN ASSOC/W WEAK UPPER
FORCING ASSOC/W THE DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH A PROMINENT SFC RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL BE RATHER ANEMIC SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING FROM THE SOUTH/SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
925-850MB WARM FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SC AND THE
MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS QUITE DELAYED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING IN THE SOUTH/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL/LIKELY) IN THE SW
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE N/NE OF THE
TRIANGLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10-0.25" IN
THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURE FCST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ON
SUN...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND THAT LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE BASED ON THE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SATURDAY...

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER
TO AROUND 1033 MB AND DRIFTS FROM OVER MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEAKENS GRADUALLY WHILE THE SECONDARY
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OFF THE SC COAST WITH ITS CENTER THEN
PASSING NEAR THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH MONDAY. THE SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER
CENTRAL NC FINALLY BEGINS TO SATURATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 290K-300K
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
HOWEVER... DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE
DPVA DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
DAMPENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS UP THROUGH EASTERN TN
AND WESTERN NC... AND UPPER DIVERGENCE (WHILE MAXIMIZED OVER NC AT
06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) TRENDS WEAKER AS WELL. AND BY THE TIME THE LOWEST
1-2 KM BECOMES SATURATED... WE LOSE THE MOISTURE ALOFT AS THE VERY
DRY AIR NOW OVER NM/WEST TX/OK PUNCHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER LOW QPF...
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THAT THE LOW LEVEL FORCING FEATURES LINE UP WELL...
WE STILL ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... AND WILL RETAIN CATEGORICAL POPS... MAINLY
FROM LATE EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
POPS TO A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LOWS 46-51. THEN WITH THICK OVERCAST PERSISTING THROUGH
MONDAY... LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND THE COASTAL LOW
HOLDING OFFSHORE... TEMPS SHOULD RISE VERY LITTLE MONDAY. HIGHS
49-59... AND EVEN THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC WITHIN THE HEART OF THE
COLD DOME IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY LATE
TUESDAY. THE PARENT HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE WEDGE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
NC... HOWEVER IT LEAVES BEHIND A FORMIDABLE COOL POOL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW STABLE AIR AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 2 KM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... AND THE GFS
HOLDS ONTO LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THIS LAYER AROUND 295K. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH NO MOISTURE ALOFT AND
STABLE/WARMING MID LEVELS... IT SHOULD HAVE NO SENSIBLE IMPACT IN
THIS AREA. WITH WEAK AND LIGHTLY DIFFLUENT MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS... WE SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE BROUGHT
LOWS UP SLIGHTLY TO 45-49. ON TUESDAY... THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW
LEVELS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND SATURATED WHEREAS THE NAM WANTS TO
START DRYING THIS LAYER OUT. THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE DIFFICULTING
CORRECTLY DEPICTING EROSION OF A DAMMING AIR MASS THAT HAS LOST
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND NO LONGER HAS ANY CONNECTION TO A COOL DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR SOURCE. DESPITE HEATING FROM ABOVE WHICH MAY START TO
BURN OFF THE UPPER PORTION OF THIS MOIST LAYER... GIVEN THE DRY
SUBSIDENCE LAYER ALOFT CAPPING OFF THIS SURFACE-BASED LAYER AND WITH
WEAK WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM INHIBITING MIXING... FAVOR A LEAN
TOWARD THE GFS (WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN) WHICH MEANS
HOLDING ONTO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THIS
GREATER CLOUD COVER... HIGHS WILL ACCORDINGLY BE LOWERED... TO
58-65. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...


THE FORECAST GETS QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED.  THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
RESOLVE SUCH A SOLUTION...THEY CURRENTLY GET THE SIMILAR ANSWER
THROUGH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.  THE GFS SENDS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LIFTS THE
SYSTEM INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT.  THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT WITH NO MORE TO WORK
WITH....POINTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STAY DRY EVEN AS A SURFACE WAVE
IS INDUCED OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED NORTH OVER A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST SUBSEQUENTLY OCCURS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LESS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND THUS THE ECMWF PRODUCES PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NC.  GIVEN THESE CONTINUED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...FEEL THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...CONTINUING WITH HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
UNTIL SOME SORT OF MODEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15-18 KFT RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...
HOWEVER...ANY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF
THE AREA FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...WITH MVFR/IFR AND PERHAPS
LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS/FOG/DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A SATURATED WEDGE OF COOL AIR (CAD WEDGE)
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK (WED) IN ASSOC/W A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KRAH 211744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1244 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OH/WV.
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR BUOY 42361 SOUTH OF LA.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TX.
A 90 KT SOUTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GOMEX. A 100
KT NORTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. A RIDGE ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS.

TODAY:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE
INTO LA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE ASSOC SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST GOMEX IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE LA
COAST BY THAT TIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
IN ASSOC/W CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT A STEADY INFLUX OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...AND CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN AOA 15-18 KFT. LIFT TODAY
WILL BE EITHER VERY WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS CURRENTLY A NORTHERN STREAM JET ENTRANCE REGION N/NW OF
CENTRAL NC...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS DO INDICATE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFT/EVE AS A
925-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AHEAD OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW IN LA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
WEAK AND CONFINED WELL SOUTH/SW OF CENTRAL NC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS AFT/EVE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPLICATED
PRIMARILY BY BROKEN SKIES ASSOC/W UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THICKNESSES WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHS IN THE ~63F RANGE WITH FULL SUN...
HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND BROKEN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...A RANGE OF 60-63F LOOKS MORE REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
EVEN THAT COULD BE WARM BY 1-2F DEPENDING ON THE OPACITY OF CLOUD
COVER.

TONIGHT:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ENE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ATTENDANT
SFC LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO WEAKEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT MOVES ALONG
A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS A 925-850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
AL/GA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL S/SW OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
LARGELY CONFINED TO AL/GA AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UPSTREAM
OF THE AREA...AND THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR
W/REGARD TO LOW TEMPS. A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S.

SUNDAY:
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 500 MB LOW
DEAMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES N/NE
INTO NORTHERN AL/GA AND EASTERN TN. THE ATTENDANT GULF COAST SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FL/AL COAST. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY SUN IN ASSOC/W WEAK UPPER
FORCING ASSOC/W THE DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH A PROMINENT SFC RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL BE RATHER ANEMIC SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING FROM THE SOUTH/SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
925-850MB WARM FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SC AND THE
MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS QUITE DELAYED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING IN THE SOUTH/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL/LIKELY) IN THE SW
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE N/NE OF THE
TRIANGLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10-0.25" IN
THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURE FCST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ON
SUN...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND THAT LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE BASED ON THE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINAS OCCURS AND
BECOMES THE DOMINATE SURFACE LOW. GOOD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST
MODELS DAMP OUT THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
AND KEEP THE SURFACE LOW WEAKER THAN THE CANADIAN AS IT APPROACHES
CAPE HATTERAS. RAINFALL PERHAPS TWO TENTHS INCH NORTHWEST TO FOUR
TENTHS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MAY MISS US TO THE EAST MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS EAST... AND MUCH LESS
TO THE WEST. OF COURSE IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE. ONLY A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS 45 TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT... AND MOSTLY MID 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST. IF A COLD AIR MASS DAMMING WEDGE SETS UP AS EXPECTED
MONDAY...A LOW OVERCAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TEN DEGREE DIURNAL RISE TO MONDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
NEED TO BE DROPPED TO THREE TO SIX DEGREES IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

ANY LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GONE BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW USHERS IN DRIER
AIR ABOVE THE REMAINING CAD AIRMASS.  THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS COULD COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS SOME
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BENEATH DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.  WILL STICK WITH MOS VALUES WITH HIGHS
64-70.

THE FORECAST GETS QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED.  THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
RESOLVE SUCH A SOLUTION...THEY CURRENTLY GET THE SIMILAR ANSWER
THROUGH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.  THE GFS SENDS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LIFTS THE
SYSTEM INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT.  THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT WITH NO MORE TO WORK
WITH....POINTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STAY DRY EVEN AS A SURFACE WAVE
IS INDUCED OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED NORTH OVER A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST SUBSEQUENTLY OCCURS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LESS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND THUS THE ECMWF PRODUCES PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NC.  GIVEN THESE CONTINUED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...FEEL THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...CONTINUING WITH HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
UNTIL SOME SORT OF MODEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15-18 KFT RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...
HOWEVER...ANY MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MOST OR ALL OF
THE AREA FROM 00Z MON THROUGH 00Z TUE...WITH MVFR/IFR AND PERHAPS
LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS/FOG/DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A SATURATED WEDGE OF COOL AIR (CAD WEDGE)
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID-WEEK (WED) IN ASSOC/W A FRONTAL
PASSAGE. -VINCENT





&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 211724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1224 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. A BRIEF WARMUP IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL
USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL KEEP
SKIES VARIABLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST BREEZE IN PLACE.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS LED TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER TO PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALSO THE 06Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS. THE 06Z NAM WAS
NOTABLE IN ITS DEPICTION OF A VERY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MOVING
IN LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ACTUALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. WE WILL REVISIT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.

THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE CHILLY AND EVEN WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
WE WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO START THE
PERIOD. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALSO RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES...ENDING UP IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE BY EVENING. QPF
FORECAST IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF WITH RAINFALL WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW JUMPS TO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AND ENDS UP OFFSHORE. SOON THEREAFTER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MIGHT EVEN SEE
A TREND TOWARDS OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION WHICH COULD MEAN DRIZZLE
AND CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MANAGES TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING
A MILD AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AHEAD OF WHAT WILL END UP BEING A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ITS
PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECWMF HAS INDICATED OTHERWISE FOR A FEW
RUNS NOW BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DISPLAYING A VERY WET BIAS FOR SOME
TIME LOCALLY IN SUCH SETUPS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
THE PD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO LOW 60S BY DAY AND UPPER 30S AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID LEVEL STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE OFFSHORE IS
STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INLAND...AND COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE ONLY
REPORTED SCT CIGS TODAY. STILL EXPECT BKN 5K FOOT CIGS AT
ILM/CRE/MYR THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT. FLO/LBT ONLY DEALING
WITH HIGH LEVEL CI STREAMING IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING GULF OF MEXICO
LOW PRESSURE. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY OUT OF THE N/NE AT 8 TO 14
KT ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN WHILE
INSOLATION HELPS PROMOTE MIXING. TONIGHT WINDS WILL DECREASE...BUT
LIKELY NOT DECOUPLE...SO EXPECT NE WINDS AT 4 TO 7 KT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. NO FOG TONIGHT.

VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN TOMORROW AFTN. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DELAY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...SO HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED
VCSH TO FLO BY 18Z TOMORROW. ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 4K TO 5K
FEET EVERYWHERE. WILL LET FUTURE TAFS ADDRESS RAIN POTENTIAL AS THE
EVENT GETS CLOSER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL IFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A PINCHED GRADIENT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED A LITTLE AND WE SHOULD DROP TO A RELATIVE LULL IN WIND
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT.

SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 7 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 5 FT
AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. THIS MATCHES VERY WELL
WITH THE LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY TO BRING A MODERATE
GRADIENT WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NEAR TERM HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN TWO ZONES AS 6 FT SEAS AFFECT THE OUTER
REACHES ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE THIS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY TAPER THE GRADIENT AND COULD LOWER THE SEAS ENOUGH TO
DROP ANY ADVISORIES. WEDGE WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING WINDS WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. CHANGES MAY BE UNDERWAY COME
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KRAH 211658
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1158 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OH/WV.
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR BUOY 42361 SOUTH OF LA.
ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TX.
A 90 KT SOUTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GOMEX. A 100
KT NORTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. A RIDGE ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS.

TODAY:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE
INTO LA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE ASSOC SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST GOMEX IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE LA
COAST BY THAT TIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY
IN ASSOC/W CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT A STEADY INFLUX OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
CAROLINAS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER
LEVELS TODAY...AND CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN AOA 15-18 KFT. LIFT TODAY
WILL BE EITHER VERY WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS CURRENTLY A NORTHERN STREAM JET ENTRANCE REGION N/NW OF
CENTRAL NC...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS DO INDICATE INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS AFT/EVE AS A
925-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AHEAD OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW IN LA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
WEAK AND CONFINED WELL SOUTH/SW OF CENTRAL NC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP THIS AFT/EVE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COMPLICATED
PRIMARILY BY BROKEN SKIES ASSOC/W UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
THICKNESSES WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHS IN THE ~63F RANGE WITH FULL SUN...
HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND BROKEN UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER...A RANGE OF 60-63F LOOKS MORE REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH
EVEN THAT COULD BE WARM BY 1-2F DEPENDING ON THE OPACITY OF CLOUD
COVER.

TONIGHT:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ENE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ATTENDANT
SFC LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO WEAKEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT MOVES ALONG
A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS A 925-850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
AL/GA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL S/SW OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
LARGELY CONFINED TO AL/GA AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UPSTREAM
OF THE AREA...AND THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR
W/REGARD TO LOW TEMPS. A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S.

SUNDAY:
LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 500 MB LOW
DEAMPLIFYING INTO A SHORTWAVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES N/NE
INTO NORTHERN AL/GA AND EASTERN TN. THE ATTENDANT GULF COAST SFC LOW
IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FL/AL COAST. AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST DURING THE DAY SUN IN ASSOC/W WEAK UPPER
FORCING ASSOC/W THE DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH A PROMINENT SFC RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WILL BE RATHER ANEMIC SUNDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BE STRENGTHENING FROM THE SOUTH/SW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
925-850MB WARM FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SC AND THE
MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST. BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...THE TIMING
OF THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP IS QUITE DELAYED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING IN THE SOUTH/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE TRIANGLE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL/LIKELY) IN THE SW
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE N/NE OF THE
TRIANGLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 0.10-0.25" IN
THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURE FCST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ON
SUN...DEPENDING PRIMARILY ON THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP. LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WARMER IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM
THE MID/UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND THAT LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE BASED ON THE DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINAS OCCURS AND
BECOMES THE DOMINATE SURFACE LOW. GOOD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST
MODELS DAMP OUT THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
AND KEEP THE SURFACE LOW WEAKER THAN THE CANADIAN AS IT APPROACHES
CAPE HATTERAS. RAINFALL PERHAPS TWO TENTHS INCH NORTHWEST TO FOUR
TENTHS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MAY MISS US TO THE EAST MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS EAST... AND MUCH LESS
TO THE WEST. OF COURSE IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE. ONLY A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS 45 TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT... AND MOSTLY MID 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST. IF A COLD AIR MASS DAMMING WEDGE SETS UP AS EXPECTED
MONDAY...A LOW OVERCAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TEN DEGREE DIURNAL RISE TO MONDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
NEED TO BE DROPPED TO THREE TO SIX DEGREES IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

ANY LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GONE BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW USHERS IN DRIER
AIR ABOVE THE REMAINING CAD AIRMASS.  THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS COULD COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS SOME
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BENEATH DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.  WILL STICK WITH MOS VALUES WITH HIGHS
64-70.

THE FORECAST GETS QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED.  THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
RESOLVE SUCH A SOLUTION...THEY CURRENTLY GET THE SIMILAR ANSWER
THROUGH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.  THE GFS SENDS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LIFTS THE
SYSTEM INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT.  THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT WITH NO MORE TO WORK
WITH....POINTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STAY DRY EVEN AS A SURFACE WAVE
IS INDUCED OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED NORTH OVER A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST SUBSEQUENTLY OCCURS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LESS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND THUS THE ECMWF PRODUCES PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NC.  GIVEN THESE CONTINUED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...FEEL THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...CONTINUING WITH HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
UNTIL SOME SORT OF MODEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...

WITH MODELS TRENDING SLOWER ON THE ARRIVAL OF A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY
CIRROSTRATUS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT CENTRAL NC FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING A RIDGE OF DRY
AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST....AND PROVIDING A LIGHT NE WIND.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.  AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY...BEFORE A
COASTAL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM NC AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM TO EFFECT MAINLY EASTERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH

000
FXUS62 KMHX 211543
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE COOL NE FLOW REGIME...PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WEAK
THICKNESS RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ANTHR 5-10 DEGS
THIS AFTN. NAM FCST SOUNDING CONT TO SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LYR
NEAR 5000 FT THIS AFTN SO EXPECT WILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATO-
CU...WILL ALSO HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY BUT EXPECT ENUF PEAKS
OF SUN TO GET HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT AS BEGIN TO SEE LOW
LVL MOISTURE INCREASE PLUS WILL HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WELL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRT WAVE. CONT PREV FCST OF SLIGHT POP LATE
TONIGHT SRN TIER. LOWS MAINLY UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S. RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY AS INSENT LIFT INCREASES OVER THE
AREA AS CSTL FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SRT WAVE. CONT LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC NE CST LATER SUNDAY. SUN
NIGHT LOOKS WET AS ISENT LIFT CONTS WITH INCREASING MID/UPR
SUPPORT WITH SRT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NW. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
ALL AREAS SUN NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRAD DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE MON
HOWEVER WILL STILL HAVE GOOD CVRG EARLY AND CONT CATEGORICAL NE
CST TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE WITH POPS DECREASING TO CHC LATE.
TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS TO AVG OUT IN 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE AND
DESPITE VERY WET GROUND MANY AREAS SHLD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. HIGHS BOTH SUN AND MON WITH CLOUDS...PRECIP AND NE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL END MON
NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE AND WED EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. IMPRESSIVE SRT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND
MOVE OFFSHORE FRI. MDLS DIFFER WITH GFS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE
AND BULK OF PRECIP OFFSHORE. EMCWF IS WETTER...ESPCLY CST WITH
MOISTURE COMING IN OFF ATLC. CURRENTLY HAVE CHC POPS THU AND WILL
NOT CHANGE UNTIL GET MORE CLARITY FROM MDLS. COOLER AND DRY FRI IN
WAKE OF FRONT/SRT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 AM...A MIX OF LAYERED CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH VFR CEILINGS. TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS WILL SINK INTO A
MID DECK WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP INHIBIT FOG DESPITE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

LOW PRES MOVING UP FROM SW WILL PRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE SUN...WITH WDSPRD IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. LOWER CIGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO TUE DUE TO WEDGE CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW
PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 915 AM...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG
THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH WINDS 20KTG25 AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES OFF SC COAST IS RESUTING IN TIGHTER PRES GRAD EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUED STRONGER WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
WATERS. BORDERLINE SCA WINDS OVER PAMLICO SOUNDS BUT RUC AND NAM
IDICATE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING THIS MORNING SO POSTED
SCA THERE UNTIL NOON. STONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN HALF OF
WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND SCA SEAS WILL PERSISTING INTO SUN.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SFC LOW MOVING UP FROM SW SUN
NIGHT-MON AND LEANED TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM FOR CONTINUITY. 06Z GFS
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
TO INCREASE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN MAY HAVE WINDS BELOW 20
KT MON WITH LOW MOVING NEAR COAST. CONDITIOSN SLOWLY IMPROVING
TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...BTC/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM/SJ
MARINE...JBM/SJ

000
FXUS62 KRAH 211510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND REFORMING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WV. 1008
MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR BUOY 42361 IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO. ALOFT...12Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED AN 850 MB FRONT STALLED
OVER CENTRAL NC (LWX -1C, WAL 4C, GSO 5C, MHX 9C). FURTHER ALOFT...A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WAS NOTED ACROSS THE CONUS. A 500 MB LOW WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TX. A 90 KT SOUTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE NORTHERN GOMEX. A 100 KT NORTHERN STREAM JET WAS NOTED OVER
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A DEAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE ALOFT WAS PRESENT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

TODAY:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE
INTO LA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHILE THE ASSOC SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST GOMEX IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN LA COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WV
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY IN ASSOC/W CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT A STEADY INFLUX OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY AS MOISTURE MOVES DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER LEVELS TODAY...AND
CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN AOA 15-18 KFT...CONSISTENT WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING ANY SATURATION AOA ~500 MB THROUGH 00Z. LIFT TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE CONFINED TO VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN ASSOC/W THE STALLED 850 MB FRONT OVER THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY A NORTHERN STREAM JET ENTRANCE REGION
N/NW OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS DO
INDICATE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TODAY AS A 925-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE SFC/UPPER LOW IN LA. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND REMAIN CONFINED WELL SOUTH/SW OF CENTRAL NC.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE COMPLICATED PRIMARILY BY BROKEN SKIES ASSOC/W UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. THICKNESSES WOULD ARGUE FOR HIGHS IN THE ~63F RANGE
WITH FULL SUN... HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW AND
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...A RANGE OF 61-63F LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE...COOLEST NORTH AND WARMEST SOUTH.

TONIGHT:
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST TX IS PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ENE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ATTENDANT
SFC LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO WEAKEN A FEW MILLIBARS AS IT MOVES ALONG
A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM DYNAMICS...ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS A 925-850 MB WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
AL/GA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL S/SW OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z SUN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES
LARGELY CONFINED TO AL/GA AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UPSTREAM
OF THE AREA...AND THAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR
W/REGARD TO LOW TEMPS. A MOS GUIDANCE BLEND LOOKS PRETTY
REASONABLE...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...

A 700 MILLIBAR WARM FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER SUNRISE
SUNDAY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT NEAR 850 MILLIBARS... AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST THREE QUARTERS
SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNSET SUNDAY.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINAS OCCURS AND
BECOMES THE DOMINATE SURFACE LOW. GOOD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST MODELS DAMP OUT THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND KEEP THE SURFACE LOW WEAKER THAN THE CANADIAN AS IT
APPROACHES CAPE HATTERAS. RAINFALL PERHAPS TWO TENTHS INCH
NORTHWEST TO FOUR TENTHS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MAY MISS US TO THE EAST MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS EAST... AND MUCH LESS
TO THE WEST. OF COURSE IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE. ONLY A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS 45 TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT... AND MOSTLY MID 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST. IF A COLD AIR MASS DAMMING WEDGE SETS UP AS EXPECTED
MONDAY...A LOW OVERCAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TEN DEGREE DIURNAL RISE TO MONDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
NEED TO BE DROPPED TO THREE TO SIX DEGREES IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

ANY LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GONE BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW USHERS IN DRIER
AIR ABOVE THE REMAINING CAD AIRMASS.  THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS COULD COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS SOME
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BENEATH DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.  WILL STICK WITH MOS VALUES WITH HIGHS
64-70.

THE FORECAST GETS QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED.  THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
RESOLVE SUCH A SOLUTION...THEY CURRENTLY GET THE SIMILAR ANSWER
THROUGH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.  THE GFS SENDS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LIFTS THE
SYSTEM INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT.  THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT WITH NO MORE TO WORK
WITH....POINTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STAY DRY EVEN AS A SURFACE WAVE
IS INDUCED OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED NORTH OVER A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST SUBSEQUENTLY OCCURS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LESS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND THUS THE ECMWF PRODUCES PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NC.  GIVEN THESE CONTINUED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...FEEL THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...CONTINUING WITH HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
UNTIL SOME SORT OF MODEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...

WITH MODELS TRENDING SLOWER ON THE ARRIVAL OF A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY
CIRROSTRATUS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT CENTRAL NC FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING A RIDGE OF DRY
AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST....AND PROVIDING A LIGHT NE WIND.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY....WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.  AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY...BEFORE A
COASTAL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM NC AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM TO EFFECT MAINLY EASTERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH

000
FXUS62 KMHX 211442
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
915 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARING INLAND AND N. MDLS SHOW
LOWS CLOUDS SLOWLY SLIDING S AND E AND EXPECT CLOUDS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE BEACHES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. NAM FCST
SOUNDING CONT TO SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LYR NEAR 5000 FT THIS
AFTN SO EXPECT WILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATO-CU...WILL ALSO
HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY BUT EXPECT ENUF PEAKS OF SUN TO GET
HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT AS BEGIN TO SEE LOW
LVL MOISTURE INCREASE PLUS WILL HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WELL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRT WAVE. CONT PREV FCST OF SLIGHT POP LATE
TONIGHT SRN TIER. LOWS MAINLY UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S. RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY AS INSENT LIFT INCREASES OVER THE
AREA AS CSTL FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SRT WAVE. CONT LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC NE CST LATER SUNDAY. SUN
NIGHT LOOKS WET AS ISENT LIFT CONTS WITH INCREASING MID/UPR
SUPPORT WITH SRT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NW. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
ALL AREAS SUN NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRAD DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE MON
HOWEVER WILL STILL HAVE GOOD CVRG EARLY AND CONT CATEGORICAL NE
CST TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE WITH POPS DECREASING TO CHC LATE.
TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS TO AVG OUT IN 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE AND
DESPITE VERY WET GROUND MANY AREAS SHLD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. HIGHS BOTH SUN AND MON WITH CLOUDS...PRECIP AND NE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL END MON
NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE AND WED EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. IMPRESSIVE SRT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND
MOVE OFFSHORE FRI. MDLS DIFFER WITH GFS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE
AND BULK OF PRECIP OFFSHORE. EMCWF IS WETTER...ESPCLY CST WITH
MOISTURE COMING IN OFF ATLC. CURRENTLY HAVE CHC POPS THU AND WILL
NOT CHANGE UNTIL GET MORE CLARITY FROM MDLS. COOLER AND DRY FRI IN
WAKE OF FRONT/SRT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 AM...A MIX OF LAYERED CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH VFR CEILINGS. TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS WILL SINK INTO A
MID DECK WHICH ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP INHIBIT FOG DESPITE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

LOW PRES MOVING UP FROM SW WILL PRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE SUN...WITH WDSPRD IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. LOWER CIGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO TUE DUE TO WEDGE CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW
PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 915 AM...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG
THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH WINDS 20KTG25 AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES OFF SC COAST IS RESUTING IN TIGHTER PRES GRAD EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUED STRONGER WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN
WATERS. BORDERLINE SCA WINDS OVER PAMLICO SOUNDS BUT RUC AND NAM
IDICATE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING THIS MORNING SO POSTED
SCA THERE UNTIL NOON. STONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN HALF OF
WATERS INTO THIS EVENING...AND SCA SEAS WILL PERSISTING INTO SUN.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SFC LOW MOVING UP FROM SW SUN
NIGHT-MON AND LEANED TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM FOR CONTINUITY. 06Z GFS
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
TO INCREASE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN MAY HAVE WINDS BELOW 20
KT MON WITH LOW MOVING NEAR COAST. CONDITIOSN SLOWLY IMPROVING
TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM/SJ
MARINE...JBM/SJ

000
FXUS62 KILM 211314
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
814 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE CAROLINAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. A BRIEF WARMUP IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL
USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 AM SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL KEEP
SKIES VARIABLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST BREEZE IN PLACE.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS LED TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT APPEARS ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN THE SUB-CLOUD
LAYER TO PREVENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND ALSO THE 06Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND GFS. THE 06Z NAM WAS
NOTABLE IN ITS DEPICTION OF A VERY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MOVING
IN LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ACTUALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION WELL INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. WE WILL REVISIT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.

THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS QUITE CHILLY AND EVEN WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE
WE WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO START THE
PERIOD. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALSO RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES...ENDING UP IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE BY EVENING. QPF
FORECAST IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF WITH RAINFALL WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW JUMPS TO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AND ENDS UP OFFSHORE. SOON THEREAFTER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MIGHT EVEN SEE
A TREND TOWARDS OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION WHICH COULD MEAN DRIZZLE
AND CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MANAGES TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING
A MILD AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AHEAD OF WHAT WILL END UP BEING A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ITS
PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECWMF HAS INDICATED OTHERWISE FOR A FEW
RUNS NOW BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DISPLAYING A VERY WET BIAS FOR SOME
TIME LOCALLY IN SUCH SETUPS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
THE PD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO LOW 60S BY DAY AND UPPER 30S AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY BRINGING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE
GRADUALLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

4SM VSBY AT LBT IS ONLY RESTRICTION THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING VFR ALL TERMINALS. 11U-3.9U
MICRON SATELLITE IS BUSY...WITH HIGH LEVEL CI STREAMING ACROSS TO
THE NE AND MVFR/VFR STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE. WITH A MODERATE NE WIND
TODAY AT AROUND 10 KT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS TO OCCASIONALLY
MOVE ONSHORE CREATING 5K FOOT CIGS AT ILM/CRE/MYR. DO NOT BELIEVE
ANY OF THIS WILL GET TO FLO/LBT...BUT SOME AFTN CU MAY DEVELOP AT
THOSE TERMINALS AROUND 4K FEET. THIS CU WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
VERTICAL EXTENT DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVELS OF THE COLUMN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED IN ITS PROGRESSION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM...AND HAVE REMOVED ANY VCSH TO REFLECT THIS MORE DELAYED
SOLUTION. VFR WILL BE THE RULE ALL DAY WITH HIGH LEVEL CI LOWERING
TO AN AS/AC DECK AROUND 12K FEET BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL IFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 AM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A PINCHED GRADIENT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED A LITTLE AND WE SHOULD DROP TO A RELATIVE LULL IN WIND
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT.

SEAS ARE STILL RUNNING 7 FT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 5 FT
AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY. THIS MATCHES VERY WELL
WITH THE LOCAL SWAN WAVE MODEL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY TO BRING A MODERATE
GRADIENT WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NEAR TERM HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN TWO ZONES AS 6 FT SEAS AFFECT THE OUTER
REACHES ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE THIS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY TAPER THE GRADIENT AND COULD LOWER THE SEAS ENOUGH TO
DROP ANY ADVISORIES. WEDGE WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING WINDS WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. CHANGES MAY BE UNDERWAY COME
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB/TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KRAH 211147
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING NORTHEAST FLOW TO NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING ENOUGH
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO BRING TEMPERATURES TO
JUST SHORT OF FULL SUN VALUES FOR NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH... AND 62 TO 65 SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING INTO TEXAS IS GENERATING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. BOTH
THESE LOWS FORECAST TO ROUGHLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY.
THE NAM 700 MILLIBAR PRESSURE FIELD IS PERHAPS TOO WEAK AND PREFER
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FRONT OF THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN DEPICT A 700 MILLIBAR WARM FRONT... BARELY
LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS QUITE WEAK BELOW THIS FRONT SO ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LATE... WELL UNDER ONE TENTH INCH AND NOT STRAY TOO FAR NORTH BY
SUNRISE. INCREASED LOWER CLOUDINESS AND MORE OF A BREEZE THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...

A 700 MILLIBAR WARM FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER SUNRISE
SUNDAY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT NEAR 850 MILLIBARS... AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST THREE QUARTERS
SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNSET SUNDAY.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINAS OCCURS AND
BECOMES THE DOMINATE SURFACE LOW. GOOD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST MODELS DAMP OUT THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND KEEP THE SURFACE LOW WEAKER THAN THE CANADIAN AS IT
APPROACHES CAPE HATTERAS. RAINFALL PERHAPS TWO TENTHS INCH
NORTHWEST TO FOUR TENTHS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MAY MISS US TO THE EAST MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS EAST... AND MUCH LESS
TO THE WEST. OF COURSE IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE. ONLY A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS 45 TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT... AND MOSTLY MID 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST. IF A COLD AIR MASS DAMMING WEDGE SETS UP AS EXPECTED
MONDAY...A LOW OVERCAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TEN DEGREE DIURNAL RISE TO MONDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
NEED TO BE DROPPED TO THREE TO SIX DEGREES IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

ANY LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GONE BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW USHERS IN DRIER
AIR ABOVE THE REMAINING CAD AIRMASS.  THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS COULD COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS SOME
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BENEATH DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.  WILL STICK WITH MOS VALUES WITH HIGHS
64-70.

THE FORECAST GETS QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED.  THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
RESOLVE SUCH A SOLUTION...THEY CURRENTLY GET THE SIMILAR ANSWER
THROUGH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.  THE GFS SENDS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LIFTS THE
SYSTEM INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT.  THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT WITH NO MORE TO WORK
WITH....POINTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STAY DRY EVEN AS A SURFACE WAVE
IS INDUCED OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED NORTH OVER A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST SUBSEQUENTLY OCCURS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LESS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND THUS THE ECMWF PRODUCES PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NC.  GIVEN THESE CONTINUED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...FEEL THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...CONTINUING WITH HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
UNTIL SOME SORT OF MODEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SATURDAY...

WITH MODELS TRENDING SLOWER ON THE ARRIVAL OF A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE VALID TAF FORECAST. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS AND EVENTUALLY
CIRROSTRATUS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...ALL AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT CENTRAL NC FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH WILL SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING A RIDGE OF DRY
AIR DOWN THE EAST COAST....AND PROVIDING A LIGHT NE WIND.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING
CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY....WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.  AT LEAST
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY...BEFORE A
COASTAL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM NC AND PULLS DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM TO EFFECT MAINLY EASTERN TERMINALS BY THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH

000
FXUS62 KILM 211141
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE THIS
MORNING ALONG A STALLED FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THICKEST CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST. A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AND QUEBEC PROVINCE. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL THIS
PERIOD...AND THICKEST ALONG THE COAST...RAINFALL WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRYNESS OF THE COLUMN BELOW 4 KFT. HOWEVER...WE DO
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK ON SUN AS COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN.

WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL AID IN REINFORCING COOL NE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COUPLE THIS WITH CLOUDS AND WE EXPECT MAXIMUMS
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HELD TO THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
COOLEST TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION...BUT STILL ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT...
AS WEDGE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COOL NE FLOW
CONTINUING...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE DOWN IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO START THE
PERIOD. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALSO RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES...ENDING UP IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE BY EVENING. QPF
FORECAST IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF WITH RAINFALL WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW JUMPS TO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AND ENDS UP OFFSHORE. SOON THEREAFTER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MIGHT EVEN SEE
A TREND TOWARDS OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION WHICH COULD MEAN DRIZZLE
AND CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MANAGES TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING
A MILD AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AHEAD OF WHAT WILL END UP BEING A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ITS
PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECWMF HAS INDICATED OTHERWISE FOR A FEW
RUNS NOW BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DISPLAYING A VERY WET BIAS FOR SOME
TIME LOCALLY IN SUCH SETUPS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
THE PD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO LOW 60S BY DAY AND UPPER 30S AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY BRINGING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE
GRADUALLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

4SM VSBY AT LBT IS ONLY RESTRICTION THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING VFR ALL TERMINALS. 11U-3.9U
MICRON SATELLITE IS BUSY...WITH HIGH LEVEL CI STREAMING ACROSS TO
THE NE AND MVFR/VFR STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE. WITH A MODERATE NE WIND
TODAY AT AROUND 10 KT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS TO OCCASIONALLY
MOVE ONSHORE CREATING 5K FOOT CIGS AT ILM/CRE/MYR. DO NOT BELIEVE
ANY OF THIS WILL GET TO FLO/LBT...BUT SOME AFTN CU MAY DEVELOP AT
THOSE TERMINALS AROUND 4K FEET. THIS CU WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
VERTICAL EXTENT DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVELS OF THE COLUMN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED IN ITS PROGRESSION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM...AND HAVE REMOVED ANY VCSH TO REFLECT THIS MORE DELAYED
SOLUTION. VFR WILL BE THE RULE ALL DAY WITH HIGH LEVEL CI LOWERING
TO AN AS/AC DECK AROUND 12K FEET BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL IFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES EXCEPT AMZ254 WHERE A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PINCHED GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE RESULT OF PRESSURE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS PINCHED GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX LATER IN THE DAY AS WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN THIS
EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST. PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE LOWER IN AREAS WHERE FETCH IS
GREATLY REDUCED IN NE FLOW.

SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY TO BRING A MODERATE
GRADIENT WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NEAR TERM HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN TWO ZONES AS 6 FT SEAS AFFECT THE OUTER
REACHES ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE THIS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY TAPER THE GRADIENT AND COULD LOWER THE SEAS ENOUGH TO
DROP ANY ADVISORIES. WEDGE WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING WINDS WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT.

&&

LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. CHANGES MAY BE UNDERWAY COME
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KILM 211136
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
636 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE THIS
MORNING ALONG A STALLED FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THICKEST CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST. A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AND QUEBEC PROVINCE. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL THIS
PERIOD...AND THICKEST ALONG THE COAST...RAINFALL WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRYNESS IN THE COLUMN BELOW 4 KFT. HOWEVER...WE DO
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK ON SUN AS COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN.

WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL AID IN REINFORCING COOL NE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COUPLE THIS WITH CLOUDS AND WE EXPECT MAXIMUMS
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HELD TO THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
COOLEST TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION...BUT STILL ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT...
AS WEDGE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COOL NE FLOW
CONTINUING...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE DOWN IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO START THE
PERIOD. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALSO RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES...ENDING UP IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE BY EVENING. QPF
FORECAST IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF WITH RAINFALL WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW JUMPS TO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AND ENDS UP OFFSHORE. SOON THEREAFTER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MIGHT EVEN SEE
A TREND TOWARDS OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION WHICH COULD MEAN DRIZZLE
AND CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MANAGES TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING
A MILD AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AHEAD OF WHAT WILL END UP BEING A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ITS
PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECWMF HAS INDICATED OTHERWISE FOR A FEW
RUNS NOW BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DISPLAYING A VERY WET BIAS FOR SOME
TIME LOCALLY IN SUCH SETUPS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
THE PD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO LOW 60S BY DAY AND UPPER 30S AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE
TODAY BRINGING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CAUSE
GRADUALLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

4SM VSBY AT LBT IS ONLY RESTRICTION THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING VFR ALL TERMINALS. 11U-3.9U
MICRON SATELLITE IS BUSY...WITH HIGH LEVEL CI STREAMING ACROSS TO
THE NE AND MVFR/VFR STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE. WITH A MODERATE NE WIND
TODAY AT AROUND 10 KT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS STRATUS TO OCCASIONALLY
MOVE ONSHORE CREATING 5K FOOT CIGS AT ILM/CRE/MYR. DO NOT BELIEVE
ANY OF THIS WILL GET TO FLO/LBT...BUT SOME AFTN CU MAY DEVELOP AT
THOSE TERMINALS AROUND 4K FEET. THIS CU WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
VERTICAL EXTENT DUE TO THE DRY MID LEVELS OF THE COLUMN. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED IN ITS PROGRESSION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM...AND HAVE REMOVED ANY VCSH TO REFLECT THIS MORE DELAYED
SOLUTION. VFR WILL BE THE RULE ALL DAY WITH HIGH LEVEL CI LOWERING
TO AN AS/AC DECK AROUND 12K FEET BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL IFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES EXCEPT AMZ254 WHERE A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PINCHED GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE RESULT OF PRESSURE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS PINCHED GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX LATER IN THE DAY AS WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN THIS
EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST. PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE LOWER IN AREAS WHERE FETCH IS
GREATLY REDUCED IN NE FLOW.

SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY TO BRING A MODERATE
GRADIENT WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NEAR TERM HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN TWO ZONES AS 6 FT SEAS AFFECT THE OUTER
REACHES ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE THIS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY TAPER THE GRADIENT AND COULD LOWER THE SEAS ENOUGH TO
DROP ANY ADVISORIES. WEDGE WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING WINDS WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT.

&&

LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. CHANGES MAY BE UNDERWAY COME
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KMHX 211002
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
500 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARING INLAND AND N. MDLS SHOW
LOWS CLOUDS SLOWLY SLIDING S AND E AND EXPECT CLOUDS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE BEACHES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. NAM FCST
SOUNDING CONT TO SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LYR NEAR 5000 FT THIS
AFTN SO EXPECT WILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATO-CU...WILL ALSO
HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY BUT EXPECT ENUF PEAKS OF SUN TO GET
HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT AS BEGIN TO SEE LOW
LVL MOISTURE INCREASE PLUS WILL HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WELL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRT WAVE. CONT PREV FCST OF SLIGHT POP LATE
TONIGHT SRN TIER. LOWS MAINLY UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S. RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY AS INSENT LIFT INCREASES OVER THE
AREA AS CSTL FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SRT WAVE. CONT LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC NE CST LATER SUNDAY. SUN
NIGHT LOOKS WET AS ISENT LIFT CONTS WITH INCREASING MID/UPR
SUPPORT WITH SRT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NW. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
ALL AREAS SUN NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRAD DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE MON
HOWEVER WILL STILL HAVE GOOD CVRG EARLY AND CONT CATEGORICAL NE
CST TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE WITH POPS DECREASING TO CHC LATE.
TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS TO AVG OUT IN 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE AND
DESPITE VERY WET GROUND MANY AREAS SHLD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. HIGHS BOTH SUN AND MON WITH CLOUDS...PRECIP AND NE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL END MON
NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE AND WED EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. IMPRESSIVE SRT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND
MOVE OFFSHORE FRI. MDLS DIFFER WITH GFS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE
AND BULK OF PRECIP OFFSHORE. EMCWF IS WETTER...ESPCLY CST WITH
MOISTURE COMING IN OFF ATLC. CURRENTLY HAVE CHC POPS THU AND WILL
NOT CHANGE UNTIL GET MORE CLARITY FROM MDLS. COOLER AND DRY FRI IN
WAKE OF FRONT/SRT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT SOME LCL
MVFR VSBYS LIKELY AT KPGV AND KISO UNTIL 13Z. VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVER AREA...THOUGH HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING TODAY AND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT.

LOW PRES MOVING UP FROM SW WILL PRODUCE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
LATE SUN...WITH WDSPRD IFR SUN NIGHT AND MON. LOWER CIGS LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO TUE DUE TO WEDGE CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF DEPARTED LOW
PRES.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRES OFF SC COAST RESUTING IN TIGHTER PRES GRAD EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND CONTINUED STRONGER WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS.
BORDERLINE SCA WINDS OVER PAMLICO SOUNDS BUT RUC AND NAM IDICATE
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS PERSISTING THIS MORNING SO POSTED SCA THERE
UNTIL NOON. STONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SRN HALF OF WATERS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND SCA SEAS WILL PERSISTING INTO SUN.

STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON SFC LOW MOVING UP FROM SW SUN
NIGHT-MON AND LEANED TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM FOR CONTINUITY. 06Z GFS
HAS COME IN LINE WITH THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
TO INCREASE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN MAY HAVE WINDS BELOW 20
KT MON WITH LOW MOVING NEAR COAST. CONDITIOSN SLOWLY IMPROVING
TUE-WED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...JBM
MARINE...JBM

000
FXUS62 KRAH 210825
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING NORTHEAST FLOW TO NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING ENOUGH
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO BRING TEMPERATURES TO
JUST SHORT OF FULL SUN VALUES FOR NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH... AND 62 TO 65 SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING INTO TEXAS IS GENERATING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. BOTH
THESE LOWS FORECAST TO ROUGHLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY.
THE NAM 700 MILLIBAR PRESSURE FIELD IS PERHAPS TOO WEAK AND PREFER
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FRONT OF THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN DEPICT A 700 MILLIBAR WARM FRONT... BARELY
LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS QUITE WEAK BELOW THIS FRONT SO ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LATE... WELL UNDER ONE TENTH INCH AND NOT STRAY TOO FAR NORTH BY
SUNRISE. INCREASED LOWER CLOUDINESS AND MORE OF A BREEZE THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...

A 700 MILLIBAR WARM FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER SUNRISE
SUNDAY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT NEAR 850 MILLIBARS... AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST THREE QUARTERS
SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNSET SUNDAY.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINAS OCCURS AND
BECOMES THE DOMINATE SURFACE LOW. GOOD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST MODELS DAMP OUT THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND KEEP THE SURFACE LOW WEAKER THAN THE CANADIAN AS IT
APPROACHES CAPE HATTERAS. RAINFALL PERHAPS TWO TENTHS INCH
NORTHWEST TO FOUR TENTHS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MAY MISS US TO THE EAST MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS EAST... AND MUCH LESS
TO THE WEST. OF COURSE IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE. ONLY A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS 45 TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT... AND MOSTLY MID 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST. IF A COLD AIR MASS DAMMING WEDGE SETS UP AS EXPECTED
MONDAY...A LOW OVERCAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TEN DEGREE DIURNAL RISE TO MONDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
NEED TO BE DROPPED TO THREE TO SIX DEGREES IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

ANY LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GONE BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW USHERS IN DRIER
AIR ABOVE THE REMAINING CAD AIRMASS.  THE POSSIBILITY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS COULD COMPLICATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS SOME
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BENEATH DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT.  WILL STICK WITH MOS VALUES WITH HIGHS
64-70.

THE FORECAST GETS QUITE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH
THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED.  THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE
TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
RESOLVE SUCH A SOLUTION...THEY CURRENTLY GET THE SIMILAR ANSWER
THROUGH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.  THE GFS SENDS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE LIFTS THE
SYSTEM INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT.  THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT
DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST...BUT WITH NO MORE TO WORK
WITH....POINTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS STAY DRY EVEN AS A SURFACE WAVE
IS INDUCED OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING.  THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO
BE PULLED NORTH OVER A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COAST SUBSEQUENTLY OCCURS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH LESS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...AND THUS THE ECMWF PRODUCES PRECIP OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF NC.  GIVEN THESE CONTINUED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...FEEL THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO SHOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...CONTINUING WITH HIGHER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST
UNTIL SOME SORT OF MODEL CONVERGENCE BEGINS.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

OTHER THAN PERIODS OF LIMITED VSBYS AT KRWI WHERE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY CAUSING SOME SHALLOW FOG...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...KEEPING
SURFACE WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE NE.  A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF CIRRUS DRIFTING OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM SPREADS TO TOWARDS THE AREA...BUT ALL SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PRECIP FREE THROUGH 06Z.


LOOKING BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY: A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH

000
FXUS62 KRAH 210822
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BRING NORTHEAST FLOW TO NORTH
CAROLINA INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTING ENOUGH
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO BRING TEMPERATURES TO
JUST SHORT OF FULL SUN VALUES FOR NORTHEAST FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH... AND 62 TO 65 SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPPING INTO TEXAS IS GENERATING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. BOTH
THESE LOWS FORECAST TO ROUGHLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY.
THE NAM 700 MILLIBAR PRESSURE FIELD IS PERHAPS TOO WEAK AND PREFER
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FRONT OF THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN DEPICT A 700 MILLIBAR WARM FRONT... BARELY
LIFTING NORTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS QUITE WEAK BELOW THIS FRONT SO ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
LATE... WELL UNDER ONE TENTH INCH AND NOT STRAY TOO FAR NORTH BY
SUNRISE. INCREASED LOWER CLOUDINESS AND MORE OF A BREEZE THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM...

A 700 MILLIBAR WARM FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER SUNRISE
SUNDAY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AFTER SUNSET. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND MODERATE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT NEAR 850 MILLIBARS... AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST THREE QUARTERS
SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE SUNSET SUNDAY.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT... LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINAS OCCURS AND
BECOMES THE DOMINATE SURFACE LOW. GOOD MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MOST MODELS DAMP OUT THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AND KEEP THE SURFACE LOW WEAKER THAN THE CANADIAN AS IT
APPROACHES CAPE HATTERAS. RAINFALL PERHAPS TWO TENTHS INCH
NORTHWEST TO FOUR TENTHS SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WEAKEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MAY MISS US TO THE EAST MONDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER LONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING SURFACE LOW BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR LESS EAST... AND MUCH LESS
TO THE WEST. OF COURSE IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...
THESE AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE. ONLY A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE EXITING LOW MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS 45 TO 50 SUNDAY NIGHT... AND MOSTLY MID 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST. IF A COLD AIR MASS DAMMING WEDGE SETS UP AS EXPECTED
MONDAY...A LOW OVERCAST WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST TEN DEGREE DIURNAL RISE TO MONDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
NEED TO BE DROPPED TO THREE TO SIX DEGREES IF CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
RIDGING... BENEATH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
(AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH)... SHOULD YIELD DRY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 62
TO 69... WARMEST TUESDAY. LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 45.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A SERIES OF INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ENSUE OFF THE EAST COAST... AS
THE UPPER FORCING APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE.
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL NC... THOUGH THERE PROBABLY WILL BE PERIODS OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/JET
AXIS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS THE L/W TROUGH AXIS SETTLES IN BY
FRIDAY. HIGHS 60 TO 65 THURSDAY... WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY. LOWS INTO THE 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

OTHER THAN PERIODS OF LIMITED VSBYS AT KRWI WHERE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY CAUSING SOME SHALLOW FOG...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...KEEPING
SURFACE WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE NE.  A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF CIRRUS DRIFTING OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM SPREADS TO TOWARDS THE AREA...BUT ALL SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PRECIP FREE THROUGH 06Z.


LOOKING BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY: A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SMITH

000
FXUS62 KILM 210819
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
319 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
SUNDAY. A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE THIS
MORNING ALONG A STALLED FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THICKEST CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST. A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND AND QUEBEC PROVINCE. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO WEDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL THIS
PERIOD...AND THICKEST ALONG THE COAST...RAINFALL WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRYNESS IF THE COLUMN BELOW 4 KFT. HOWEVER...WE DO
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SW/DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK ON SUN AS COLUMN SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN.

WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL AID IN REINFORCING COOL NE
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COUPLE THIS WITH CLOUDS AND WE EXPECT MAXIMUMS
THIS PERIOD WILL BE HELD TO THE COOLER SIDE OF MODEL CONSENSUS.
COOLEST TEMPS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION...BUT STILL ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT...
AS WEDGE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH COOL NE FLOW
CONTINUING...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE DOWN IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO START THE
PERIOD. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ALSO RAMP UP RAIN
CHANCES...ENDING UP IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE BY EVENING. QPF
FORECAST IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS GUIDANCE HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF WITH RAINFALL WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING LOW JUMPS TO THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE WEDGE AND ENDS UP OFFSHORE. SOON THEREAFTER RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. MIGHT EVEN SEE
A TREND TOWARDS OVERALL SLOWER PROGRESSION WHICH COULD MEAN DRIZZLE
AND CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF THE DAY. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MANAGES TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING
A MILD AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO BRING HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AHEAD OF WHAT WILL END UP BEING A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY. LITTLE TO MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ITS PASSAGE
SHOULD BE DRY. THE ECWMF HAS INDICATED OTHERWISE FOR A FEW RUNS NOW
BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DISPLAYING A VERY WET BIAS FOR SOME TIME
LOCALLY IN SUCH SETUPS. DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE PD
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO LOW 60S BY DAY AND UPPER 30S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. FURTHER INLAND...STRATOCUMULUS DECK SHOULD BE
MORE SCATTERED BELOW A CIRROSTRATUS CEILING. MAY BE SOME MVFR BR AT
KLBT AND KFLO...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH SO
ANY BR SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE. NAM MODEL HAS A COASTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT COULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER THE FEATURE IS SO SMALL...WILL NOT INCLUDE IT
THE ILM TAF. CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY WITH THICKENING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS MOVE BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WILL HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
ZONES EXCEPT AMZ254 WHERE A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. PINCHED GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE RESULT OF PRESSURE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS PINCHED GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX LATER IN THE DAY AS WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN THIS
EVE AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST. PERSISTENT NE WINDS WILL REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE SEAS WILL BE LOWER IN AREAS WHERE FETCH IS
GREATLY REDUCED IN NE FLOW.

SHORT TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY TO BRING A MODERATE
GRADIENT WIND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NEAR TERM HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN TWO ZONES AS 6 FT SEAS AFFECT THE OUTER
REACHES ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. WAVE SHADOWING WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE THIS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. A FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIDE UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE WEDGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THIS
WILL SLIGHTLY TAPER THE GRADIENT AND COULD LOWER THE SEAS ENOUGH TO
DROP ANY ADVISORIES. WEDGE WEAKENS BUT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING WINDS WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT.

&&

LONG TERM/TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...
LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY BRINGING A LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. CHANGES MAY BE UNDERWAY COME
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE
FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ256.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJD/DL

000
FXUS62 KMHX 210715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NE ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARING INLAND AND N. MDLS SHOW
LOWS CLOUDS SLOWLY SLIDING S AND E AND EXPECT CLOUDS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE BEACHES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. NAM FCST
SOUNDING CONT TO SHOW A NEARLY SATURATED LYR NEAR 5000 FT THIS
AFTN SO EXPECT WILL SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATO-CU...WILL ALSO
HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TODAY BUT EXPECT ENUF PEAKS OF SUN TO GET
HIGHS IN THE 60 TO 65 DGR RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT AS BEGIN TO SEE LOW
LVL MOISTURE INCREASE PLUS WILL HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WELL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRT WAVE. CONT PREV FCST OF SLIGHT POP LATE
TONIGHT SRN TIER. LOWS MAINLY UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S. RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY AS INSENT LIFT INCREASES OVER THE
AREA AS CSTL FRONT TAKES SHAPE JUST OFFSHORE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SRT WAVE. CONT LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CHC NE CST LATER SUNDAY. SUN
NIGHT LOOKS WET AS ISENT LIFT CONTS WITH INCREASING MID/UPR
SUPPORT WITH SRT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NW. HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS
ALL AREAS SUN NIGHT. RAIN WILL GRAD DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE MON
HOWEVER WILL STILL HAVE GOOD CVRG EARLY AND CONT CATEGORICAL NE
CST TO LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE WITH POPS DECREASING TO CHC LATE.
TOTAL QPF FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS TO AVG OUT IN 0.5 TO 1 INCH RANGE AND
DESPITE VERY WET GROUND MANY AREAS SHLD NOT CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS. HIGHS BOTH SUN AND MON WITH CLOUDS...PRECIP AND NE WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SAT...ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL END MON
NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TUE AND WED EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. IMPRESSIVE SRT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THU AND
MOVE OFFSHORE FRI. MDLS DIFFER WITH GFS SHOWING LIMITED MOISTURE
AND BULK OF PRECIP OFFSHORE. EMCWF IS WETTER...ESPCLY CST WITH
MOISTURE COMING IN OFF ATLC. CURRENTLY HAVE CHC POPS THU AND WILL
NOT CHANGE UNTIL GET MORE CLARITY FROM MDLS. COOLER AND DRY FRI IN
WAKE OF FRONT/SRT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...CEILINGS GRADUALLY STARTING TO LIFT WITH MVFR
AT ISO...EWN AND OAJ WITH VFR NOW AT PGV. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE LIFTING THRU THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS AS TIME SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR SLOWLY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME FOG PATCHES TOWARD MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS RTES TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC THIS EVENING BRINGING MVFR CIGS MOST
LOCATIONS TO IFR CIGS ACROSS SRN RTES. CIGS SLOWLY RISE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING CLEARING TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER ERN
RTES WILL LIKELY HANG ONTO LOWER CIGS...MAINLY MVFR....THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING.

VFR SAT-SUN WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN...THEN CONDITIONS
LOWERING SUN NIGHT-MON WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AGAIN MON NIGHT-TUE WITH HIGH PRES AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...UPDATED CWF EARLIER AS SCEC ON THE SOUNDS
EXPIRED. CONTINUE SCA ON COASTAL WATERS AS NE WINDS GUST INTO THE
20S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OFFSHORE UP TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST/GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY SURGE CONTINUING TO BRING WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM N TO S LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7
FT TO CONTINUE FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NWD AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE
SRN COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SAT AND SAT EVENING AND A PERIOD OF SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT EARLY SUN BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM AFFECTING AREA
LATE SUN INTO MON AND DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FCST...KEEPING LOW TRACK OFFSHORE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-
     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK

000
FXUS62 KRAH 210548
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY... IN
ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THE GULF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SOUTHERN STREAM VORTEX OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS. MODELS PAINT 70 TO 80 PERCENT 500-300MB MEAN LAYER
RH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM 06Z ON. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE ENOUGH ON IR IMAGERY TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WILL BUMP UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES...RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW T/TD SPREADS RESIDE. OF
COURSE....IF CIRRUS CANOPY IS AS ADVERTISED...IT WOULD CERTAINLY
HELP DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. -CBL

FOR SATURDAY: THE MID LEVEL VORTEX DEEPENING OVER EASTERN TX/OK THIS
AFTERNOON MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS LA/MS THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AND DEEPENS OVER NC... WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD TO A POSITION
OVER LAKE ERIE... WHERE IT BEGINS TO BE SUPPORTED BY CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER PA... CAUSING
THE HIGH TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ENSURE A
STEADY NORTHEASTERLY FEED OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC...
SETTING US UP FOR DAMMING ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH CAN GET INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION (OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) SATURDAY NIGHT
WHERE IT CAN TAP INTO EVEN COOLER AIR AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH
THE SUPPORT ALOFT PERSISTING. EXPECT STEADILY LOWERING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A FEW LOWER STRATOCUMULUS
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITHIN EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BUT THE MOST ACTION WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL BE BANDS OF
CONVECTION OVER AL/GA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF... AND ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING TO GENERATE PRECIP OVER NC HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN
SATURDAY WITH NO DISCERNIBLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
HOLDING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY... PLUS THE SUBCLOUD LAYER AT
1-3 KM OVER NC REMAINS RATHER DRY. HIGHS 60-65 ARE SUPPORTED BY LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS AND ARE NEAR THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
-GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY 1) A STRENGTHENING
(TO NEAR 1028-1034 MB) BUT MIGRATORY CAD SURFACE HIGH... 2) THE
APPROACH OF A DEAMPLIFYING BUT POWERFUL AND COMPLEX SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ALOFT AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET LEFT EXIT REGION.... 3)
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND 4)
RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COLD DOME OVER INTERIOR NC.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING OF THE UPCOMING
POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OF AROUND A THIRD TO ONE INCH... HIGHLIGHTED BY
A FAST AND HEAVY OVER-THE-WESTERN PIEDMONT GFS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT... AND THE TOTALLY DRY NAM FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ACCORDINGLY RELATIVELY
LOW... BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE TIMING OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST -- MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE 12Z GEM -- WITH THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST... AND AREA WIDE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO COOL (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA)... GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE COASTAL LOW... LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
IN NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE APT TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY (AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT). HAVE
ACCORDINGLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES INTO THE 56
TO 63 DEGREE RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
RIDGING... BENEATH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
(AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH)... SHOULD YIELD DRY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 62
TO 69... WARMEST TUESDAY. LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 45.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A SERIES OF INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ENSUE OFF THE EAST COAST... AS
THE UPPER FORCING APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE.
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL NC... THOUGH THERE PROBABLY WILL BE PERIODS OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/JET
AXIS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS THE L/W TROUGH AXIS SETTLES IN BY
FRIDAY. HIGHS 60 TO 65 THURSDAY... WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY. LOWS INTO THE 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

OTHER THAN PERIODS OF LIMITED VSBYS AT KRWI WHERE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY CAUSING SOME SHALLOW FOG...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...KEEPING
SURFACE WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE NE.  A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF CIRRUS DRIFTING OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM SPREADS TO TOWARDS THE AREA...BUT ALL SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND PRECIP FREE THROUGH 06Z.


LOOKING BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY: A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&


$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SMITH/BSD

000
FXUS62 KILM 210535
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1235 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING
RAIN TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...PULLING
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...LOW STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS AND ITS PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED
RUC/NAM 1000-900MB RH LAYER TO IDENTIFY ITS PROGRESSION
SOUTHWARD/INLAND AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE ILM CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ITS COVERAGE TO BASICALLY INCLUDE THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES AND INLAND BY 1 COUNTY. COULD OBSERVE
PATCHY FOG BUT ITS OCCURRENCE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE. HAVE TWEAKED
UP OVERNITE MINS MAINLY UNDER THE CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS. NE WINDS TO
STAY MORE ACTIVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS DECK
AS IT ADVECTS IT SOUTHWARD. QUITE DRY ABOVE THE STRATUS...850MB AND
HIER VIA LATEST NAM MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND THEREFORE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PCPN OUT OF THESE CLOUDS. UPSTREAM INLAND CI WILL LIKELY
STREAM OVERHEAD FROM THE SW BY DAYLIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY ON SAT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING GULF COAST STORM WILL RESULT IN A LOT OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. ALONG THE COAST COOLER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME LOW CU DEVELOPING...BUT WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM FALLING. CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
FRI...RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.

CLOUD BASES LOWER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 200 MB
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
ARRIVES SUN MORNING ACROSS SW PORTIONS...SPREADING OVER NE PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. CANNOT FIND ANY REASON TO NOT GO WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUN. BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE SYSTEM EVOLVE
ONCE IT REACHES THE AREA. DO NOT LIKE THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION WHICH
TRACKS MAIN LOW WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE FAVORED SOLUTION...AND
ONE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...TAKES THE LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US AND DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
COAST. STILL UNSURE EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW WILL TRACK...BUT LIKE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTION WITH THE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE
COAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA IN STRATIFORM PRECIP AND
COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR THE FORECAST
TO GO AWRY. LOW PASSING OVER OR WEST OF THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS WHILE A LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

CLOUDS LINGER SUN NIGHT BUT PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND STARTS TO DEEPEN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE WITH CLOUDS AND MIXING KEEPING LOWS WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT MON THROUGH TUES...BUT GFS SHOWS WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
AREA MON NIGHT. PCP WATER CLOSE TO AN INCH MON MORNING WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY REACHING DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH BY TUES. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THROUGH MON MORNING. OVERALL
EXPECT VERY DRY MID LEVELS BUT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUES MORNING. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
THROUGH MID WEEK. TUES NIGHT A COLD FRONT REACHES THE WRN
CAROLINAS...BUT BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO LOCAL AREA...BUT BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE COAST
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED HEADING INTO THURS.
PCP WATER INCREASES BUT MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN W-SW JET. GFS KEEPS THIS PCP OFF
SHORE...BUT TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT AND MAY SEE A WETTER FORECAST FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WITH BOUNDARY SO
CLOSE AND FORECAST SO OUT IN TIME...WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS IN
FORECAST FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. BY FRI HIGH
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EAST COAST SCOURING
OUT ALL THE WEATHER AND BRINGING DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
WEEKEND. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW ADVECTS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN FOR FRI
WITH PCP WATER DOWN TO A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

TEMPS WILL HOLD AROUND NORMAL OR ABOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
UNTIL FRI WHEN COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. FURTHER INLAND...STRATOCUMULUS DECK SHOULD BE
MORE SCATTERED BELOW A CIRROSTRATUS CEILING. MAY BE SOME MVFR BR AT
KLBT AND KFLO...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH SO
ANY BR SHOULD BE PATCHY IN NATURE. NAM MODEL HAS A COASTAL SURFACE
TROUGH THAT COULD PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER THE FEATURE IS SO SMALL...WILL NOT INCLUDE IT
THE ILM TAF. CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY WITH THICKENING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS MOVE BACK IN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12 AM SATURDAY...SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS INTO SAT DUE TO A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE RESULT OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE...PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST SE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS 15-20 KT
AND SEAS OF 5 FT...LOWER ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. AN UNDERLYING
2-3 FT EASTERLY SWELL RUNNING AT 8-9 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE UNDER THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW SAT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING GULF COAST LOW. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR
WINDS TO EXCEED SCA CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT THERE REMAINS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. GULF COAST LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN BUT TRACK OF LOW IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION. FAVORED
SCENARIO WOULD BE A SECONDARY LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. ONCE THE LOW PASSES...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
BECOME OFFSHORE WITH A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE SHIFT.
THINK SCA WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...LATER SAT OR SAT NIGHT BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE IT JUST YET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM THROUGH TUES. OFF SHORE FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY BUT REMAINS VERY LIGHT LIGHT...10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH
OF PERIOD. SEAS ON A DECREASING TREND THROUGH MON STARTING AROUND
2-4 FT IN THE MORNING AND ENDING AROUND 3 FT BY MON NIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WED. WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF COASTAL TROUGH HEADING INTO WED NIGHT...SHOULD SEE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND SEAS INCREASING BY END
OF PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH/RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...HDL/RJD

000
FXUS62 KILM 210321
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
944 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MILD
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...LOW STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS AND ITS PROGRESSION
ACROSS THE ILM CWA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED
RUC/NAM 1000-900MB RH LAYER TO IDENTIFY ITS PROGRESSION
SOUTHWARD/INLAND AND ITS AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE ILM CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. ITS COVERAGE TO BASICALLY INCLUDE THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES AND INLAND BY 1 COUNTY. COULD OBSERVE
PATCHY FOG BUT ITS OCCURRENCE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE. HAVE TWEAKED
UP OVERNITE MINS MAINLY UNDER THE CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS. NE WINDS TO
STAY MORE ACTIVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS DECK
AS IT ADVECTS IT SOUTHWARD. QUITE DRY ABOVE THE STRATUS...850MB AND
HIER VIA LATEST NAM MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND THEREFORE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PCPN OUT OF THESE CLOUDS. UPSTREAM INLAND CI WILL LIKELY
STREAM OVERHEAD FROM THE SW BY DAYLIGHT SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY ON SAT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING GULF COAST STORM WILL RESULT IN A LOT OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. ALONG THE COAST COOLER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME LOW CU DEVELOPING...BUT WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM FALLING. CLOUD
COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
FRI...RIGHT AROUND CLIMO.

CLOUD BASES LOWER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WITH CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING NEARLY SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 200 MB
AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT
ARRIVES SUN MORNING ACROSS SW PORTIONS...SPREADING OVER NE PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON. CANNOT FIND ANY REASON TO NOT GO WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS ON SUN. BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL THE SYSTEM EVOLVE
ONCE IT REACHES THE AREA. DO NOT LIKE THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION WHICH
TRACKS MAIN LOW WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE FAVORED SOLUTION...AND
ONE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN...TAKES THE LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US AND DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
COAST. STILL UNSURE EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW WILL TRACK...BUT LIKE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTION WITH THE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE
COAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA IN STRATIFORM PRECIP AND
COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR THE FORECAST
TO GO AWRY. LOW PASSING OVER OR WEST OF THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS WHILE A LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

CLOUDS LINGER SUN NIGHT BUT PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND STARTS TO DEEPEN. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE WITH CLOUDS AND MIXING KEEPING LOWS WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT MON THROUGH TUES...BUT GFS SHOWS WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE
AREA MON NIGHT. PCP WATER CLOSE TO AN INCH MON MORNING WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY REACHING DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH BY TUES. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THROUGH MON MORNING. OVERALL
EXPECT VERY DRY MID LEVELS BUT MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUES MORNING. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
THROUGH MID WEEK. TUES NIGHT A COLD FRONT REACHES THE WRN
CAROLINAS...BUT BECOMES VERY DIFFUSE AFTER CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO LOCAL AREA...BUT BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE COAST
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED HEADING INTO THURS.
PCP WATER INCREASES BUT MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN HIGH CLOUDS IN W-SW JET. GFS KEEPS THIS PCP OFF
SHORE...BUT TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT AND MAY SEE A WETTER FORECAST FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WITH BOUNDARY SO
CLOSE AND FORECAST SO OUT IN TIME...WILL KEEP SOME LOW END POPS IN
FORECAST FOR NOW ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. BY FRI HIGH
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE EAST COAST SCOURING
OUT ALL THE WEATHER AND BRINGING DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE
WEEKEND. DEEP LAYER NW FLOW ADVECTS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN FOR FRI
WITH PCP WATER DOWN TO A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

TEMPS WILL HOLD AROUND NORMAL OR ABOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
UNTIL FRI WHEN COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIT OF A STRANGE SYNOPTIC SITUATION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...BUT
SOME MVFR STRATA CU HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY UNDERNEATH THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DOWN THE COAST...AFFECTING JUST ILM AT PRESENT. THINK
THIS DECK COULD WORK ITS WAY WEST AND SOUTH ENOUGH TO AFFECT LBT
AND CRE RESPECTIVELY...BUT IT SHOULD BE JUST A TRANSITORY FEATURE.
SOME LIGHT FOG INLAND POSSIBLE...BUT WINDS ALOFT TOO STRONG TO
SUPPORT ANY HEAVY FOG. SATURDAY...CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW WITH A
VFR STRATA CU CEILING EXPECTED. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT PATCHY RAIN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAFS. CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS MOVE BACK
IN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...SCEC CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ILM NC
WATERS WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ILM WATERS THRU SATURDAY. A TIGHTENED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ILM WATERS WHICH WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE ILM SC WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NE
WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING 15-20 KT THRUOUGHT BY SATURDAY
DAYLIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS
AND WILL EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST ILM SC WATERS DURING DAYLIGHT
SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS OFFSHORE AND A SLITELY STRONGER
HIGH THAN ANTICIPATED...CENTERED JUST SE OF THE GREAT LAKES AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE RESULTED WITH THE CONTINUED AND EXPANDING NE 15-20 KT
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. THE WINDS HAVE LOCALLY PRODUCED THE
3 TO 5 FT MAINLY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WITH SHORT PERIODS RUNNING 5-7
SECONDS...WHICH WILL BE THE MAINSTAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN
UNDERLYING 2-3 FT EASTERLY SWELL RUNNING AT 8-9 SECONDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DISSIPATE UNDER THE LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND WAVES AS TIME
GOES BY.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW SAT WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE
DAY AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING GULF COAST LOW. CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR
WINDS TO EXCEED SCA CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT THERE REMAINS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. GULF COAST LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN BUT TRACK OF LOW IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION. FAVORED
SCENARIO WOULD BE A SECONDARY LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF THE WATERS
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. ONCE THE LOW PASSES...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
BECOME OFFSHORE WITH A BRIEF DECREASE IN SPEEDS DURING THE SHIFT.
THINK SCA WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT...LATER SAT OR SAT NIGHT BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE IT JUST YET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM THROUGH TUES. OFF SHORE FLOW BECOMES
NORTHERLY BUT REMAINS VERY LIGHT LIGHT...10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH
OF PERIOD. SEAS ON A DECREASING TREND THROUGH MON STARTING AROUND
2-4 FT IN THE MORNING AND ENDING AROUND 3 FT BY MON NIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN LOW IN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH WED. WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF COASTAL TROUGH HEADING INTO WED NIGHT...SHOULD SEE GRADIENT
TIGHTEN WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE ON SHORE AND SEAS INCREASING BY END
OF PERIOD.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...HDL

000
FXUS62 KRAH 210155
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
850 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY... IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM THE GULF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SOUTHERN STREAM VORTEX OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS. MODELS PAINT 70 TO 80 PERCENT 500-300MB MEAN LAYER
RH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM 06Z ON. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE ENOUGH ON IR IMAGERY TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WILL BUMP UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES...RANGING FROM AROUND 40
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW T/TD SPREADS RESIDE. OF
COURSE....IF CIRRUS CANOPY IS AS ADVERTISED...IT WOULD CERTAINLY
HELP DETER WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. -CBL

FOR SATURDAY: THE MID LEVEL VORTEX DEEPENING OVER EASTERN TX/OK THIS
AFTERNOON MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS LA/MS THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AND DEEPENS OVER NC... WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD TO A POSITION
OVER LAKE ERIE... WHERE IT BEGINS TO BE SUPPORTED BY CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER PA... CAUSING
THE HIGH TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ENSURE A
STEADY NORTHEASTERLY FEED OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC...
SETTING US UP FOR DAMMING ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH CAN GET INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION (OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) SATURDAY NIGHT
WHERE IT CAN TAP INTO EVEN COOLER AIR AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH
THE SUPPORT ALOFT PERSISTING. EXPECT STEADILY LOWERING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A FEW LOWER STRATOCUMULUS
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITHIN EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BUT THE MOST ACTION WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL BE BANDS OF
CONVECTION OVER AL/GA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF... AND ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING TO GENERATE PRECIP OVER NC HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN
SATURDAY WITH NO DISCERNIBLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
HOLDING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY... PLUS THE SUBCLOUD LAYER AT
1-3 KM OVER NC REMAINS RATHER DRY. HIGHS 60-65 ARE SUPPORTED BY LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS AND ARE NEAR THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
-GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY 1) A STRENGTHENING
(TO NEAR 1028-1034 MB) BUT MIGRATORY CAD SURFACE HIGH... 2) THE
APPROACH OF A DEAMPLIFYING BUT POWERFUL AND COMPLEX SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ALOFT AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET LEFT EXIT REGION.... 3)
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND 4)
RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COLD DOME OVER INTERIOR NC.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING OF THE UPCOMING
POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OF AROUND A THIRD TO ONE INCH... HIGHLIGHTED BY
A FAST AND HEAVY OVER-THE-WESTERN PIEDMONT GFS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT... AND THE TOTALLY DRY NAM FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ACCORDINGLY RELATIVELY
LOW... BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE TIMING OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST -- MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE 12Z GEM -- WITH THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST... AND AREA WIDE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO COOL (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA)... GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE COASTAL LOW... LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
IN NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE APT TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY (AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT). HAVE
ACCORDINGLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES INTO THE 56
TO 63 DEGREE RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
RIDGING... BENEATH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
(AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH)... SHOULD YIELD DRY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 62
TO 69... WARMEST TUESDAY. LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 45.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A SERIES OF INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ENSUE OFF THE EAST COAST... AS
THE UPPER FORCING APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE.
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL NC... THOUGH THERE PROBABLY WILL BE PERIODS OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/JET
AXIS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS THE L/W TROUGH AXIS SETTLES IN BY
FRIDAY. HIGHS 60 TO 65 THURSDAY... WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY. LOWS INTO THE 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...

STRATOCUMULUS HAS FINALLY MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KRWI THIS
EVENING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW PRESENT AT ALL CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT INT/GSO/RDU/FAY THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD... WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE. MEANWHILE AT RWI... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH POTENTIALLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD/EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND
MIXING ENDING... WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY
FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER... WITH A TWO DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OBSERVED ALREADY AT
KRWI... EXPECT THEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
(MVFR/IFR... POSSIBLY LIFR) OVERNIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AT INT/GSO/RDU/FAY... DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ARE 7 DEGREES OR
GREATER... AND GIVEN THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THESE TAF SITES AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST VIA THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM... EXPECT ANY FOG WE SEE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE
MVFR CATEGORY.

BY 12 TO 13Z OR SO... LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT RWI SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO GO BACK TO RETURN TO VFR. ALL TAF
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY... AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS A SOUTHERN STREAM STORMS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 8KTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS AND
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY: A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&


$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...LEP/BSD

000
FXUS62 KMHX 210139
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
838 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY...
THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY THE MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM FRI...STILL DEALING WITH STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.
BASES BEGINNING TO LIFT EVER SO SLIGHTLY...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN.
BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOUNT TO
CLOUDS...MAINLY IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO MID 50S FOR THE OUTER
BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHS SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHLD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE N SAT NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING
MOISTURE AS LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. OVERALL ATMS IS DRY
TO START SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH RAIN TO DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT...MAINLY LATE NEAR THE COAST. APPROACHING SRT WAVE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING ISENT LIFT SHLD LEAD TO DECENT CVRG OF RAIN SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TWRD NAM/ECMWF KEEPING
MAINLY NE FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH LOW PRES NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
CST LATER SUN INTO MON. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN THREAT GOING
LONGER THAN PREV FCST INDICATED SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN
NIGHT ALL AREAS AND CONT LIKELY INTO MON ESP OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S SUNDAY AND LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TUE AND WED WITH
DRY WEATHER. STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
THANKSGIVING AND WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...CEILINGS GRADUALLY STARTING TO LIFT WITH MVFR
AT ISO...EWN AND OAJ WITH VFR NOW AT PGV. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE LIFTING THRU THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS AS TIME SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR SLOWLY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME FOG PATCHES TOWARD MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS RTES TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC THIS EVENING BRINGING MVFR CIGS MOST
LOCATIONS TO IFR CIGS ACROSS SRN RTES. CIGS SLOWLY RISE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING CLEARING TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER ERN
RTES WILL LIKELY HANG ONTO LOWER CIGS...MAINLY MVFR....THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING.

VFR SAT-SUN WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN...THEN CONDITIONS
LOWERING SUN NIGHT-MON WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AGAIN MON NIGHT-TUE WITH HIGH PRES AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...UPDATED CWF EARLIER AS SCEC ON THE SOUNDS
EXPIRED. CONTINUE SCA ON COASTAL WATERS AS NE WINDS GUST INTO THE
20S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OFFSHORE UP TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST/GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY SURGE CONTINUING TO BRING WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM N TO S LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7
FT TO CONTINUE FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NWD AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE
SRN COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SAT AND SAT EVENING AND A PERIOD OF SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT EARLY SUN BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM AFFECTING AREA
LATE SUN INTO MON AND DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FCST...KEEPING LOW TRACK OFFSHORE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK

000
FXUS62 KMHX 210101
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
801 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY...
THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY THE MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES
AS ATMOS DRIES OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN TONIGHT BUT MAY LINGER THRU
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTS. THERE MAY BE A SHARP LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT GIVEN THE
DIFF IN CLOUD COVER AND ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHS SAT WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHLD REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE N SAT NIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING
MOISTURE AS LOW LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. OVERALL ATMS IS DRY
TO START SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH RAIN TO DEVELOP SAT
NIGHT...MAINLY LATE NEAR THE COAST. APPROACHING SRT WAVE COMBINED
WITH INCREASING ISENT LIFT SHLD LEAD TO DECENT CVRG OF RAIN SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAN MORE TWRD NAM/ECMWF KEEPING
MAINLY NE FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH LOW PRES NEAR OR JUST OFF THE
CST LATER SUN INTO MON. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP RAIN THREAT GOING
LONGER THAN PREV FCST INDICATED SO INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SUN
NIGHT ALL AREAS AND CONT LIKELY INTO MON ESP OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S SUNDAY AND LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TUE AND WED WITH
DRY WEATHER. STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
THANKSGIVING AND WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...CEILINGS GRADUALLY STARTING TO LIFT WITH MVFR
AT ISO...EWN AND OAJ WITH VFR NOW AT PGV. THE TREND WILL BE FOR
THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE LIFTING THRU THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS AS TIME SECTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR SLOWLY MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. MAY SEE SOME FOG PATCHES TOWARD MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS RTES TONIGHT. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NC THIS EVENING BRINGING MVFR CIGS MOST
LOCATIONS TO IFR CIGS ACROSS SRN RTES. CIGS SLOWLY RISE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. VIS SATELLITE
SHOWING CLEARING TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS EVENING HOWEVER ERN
RTES WILL LIKELY HANG ONTO LOWER CIGS...MAINLY MVFR....THROUGH
MOST OF THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING.

VFR SAT-SUN WITH HIGH PRES EXTENDING IN...THEN CONDITIONS
LOWERING SUN NIGHT-MON WITH LOW PRES MOVING ACROSS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AGAIN MON NIGHT-TUE WITH HIGH PRES AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 8 PM FRIDAY...UPDATED CWF EARLIER AS SCEC ON THE SOUNDS
EXPIRED. CONTINUE SCA ON COASTAL WATERS AS NE WINDS GUST INTO THE
20S OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OFFSHORE UP TO 6 TO 7 FEET.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST/GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY SURGE CONTINUING TO BRING WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KT
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM N TO S LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7
FT TO CONTINUE FROM DIAMOND SHOALS NWD AND UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE
SRN COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SAT AND SAT EVENING AND A PERIOD OF SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT EARLY SUN BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COASTAL WATERS.

LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM AFFECTING AREA
LATE SUN INTO MON AND DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FCST...KEEPING LOW TRACK OFFSHORE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC/RF
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK

000
FXUS62 KRAH 210100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
755 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY... IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM FRIDAY...

FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE FRONT JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS WITH THE INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN KY. A DRY AND SUBSIDING COLUMN SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS RELATIVELY FREE FROM CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION IS OVER NORTHEAST NC WHERE A SURGE OF MOISTURE JUST
OFF THE SURFACE... NOTED WELL ON THE 12Z 925 MB ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY... CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
JUST AHEAD OF A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT. THE 12Z/20 12KM NAM
SHOWED THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL... AND FAVORS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SPREADING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. FACTORING IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES... THE
CLOUDS IN THE EASTERN CWA... AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE...
STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S... COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MOST PROFOUND. BEHIND THE SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... SKIES SHOULD BE LARGELY CLOUD-FREE
OVERNIGHT... HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS UP INTO WV...
SURFACE WINDS IN NC SHOULD BECOME UNIFORM NORTHEASTERLY... AND GIVEN
THE MINOR AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... THE UPSLOPE FLOW
AND RESULTANT LIFT/CONDENSATION COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF STRATUS IN
THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH THIN CLOUDS BLOWING OFF
OF THE GULF COAST CONVECTION... ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM... WILL START TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES... STILL
EXPECT LOWS OF 39-46.

FOR SATURDAY: THE MID LEVEL VORTEX DEEPENING OVER EASTERN TX/OK THIS
AFTERNOON MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS LA/MS THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES AND DEEPENS OVER NC... WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD TO A POSITION
OVER LAKE ERIE... WHERE IT BEGINS TO BE SUPPORTED BY CONFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER PA... CAUSING
THE HIGH TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ENSURE A
STEADY NORTHEASTERLY FEED OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC...
SETTING US UP FOR DAMMING ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH CAN GET INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION (OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY) SATURDAY NIGHT
WHERE IT CAN TAP INTO EVEN COOLER AIR AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH
THE SUPPORT ALOFT PERSISTING. EXPECT STEADILY LOWERING AND
THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH A FEW LOWER STRATOCUMULUS
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITHIN EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BUT THE MOST ACTION WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL BE BANDS OF
CONVECTION OVER AL/GA AND THE NORTHEAST GULF... AND ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING TO GENERATE PRECIP OVER NC HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN
SATURDAY WITH NO DISCERNIBLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
HOLDING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY... PLUS THE SUBCLOUD LAYER AT
1-3 KM OVER NC REMAINS RATHER DRY. HIGHS 60-65 ARE SUPPORTED BY LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS AND ARE NEAR THE LATEST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
-GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DRIVEN BY 1) A STRENGTHENING
(TO NEAR 1028-1034 MB) BUT MIGRATORY CAD SURFACE HIGH... 2) THE
APPROACH OF A DEAMPLIFYING BUT POWERFUL AND COMPLEX SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ALOFT AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET LEFT EXIT REGION.... 3)
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND 4)
RESULTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE COLD DOME OVER INTERIOR NC.

THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT TIMING OF THE UPCOMING
POTENTIAL RAIN EVENT OF AROUND A THIRD TO ONE INCH... HIGHLIGHTED BY
A FAST AND HEAVY OVER-THE-WESTERN PIEDMONT GFS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT... AND THE TOTALLY DRY NAM FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ACCORDINGLY RELATIVELY
LOW... BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE TIMING OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST -- MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE 12Z GEM -- WITH THE BULK OF
THE RAINFALL SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST... AND AREA WIDE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST COULD BE A FEW
DEGREES TOO COOL (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA)... GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AND
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE COASTAL LOW... LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE
IN NORTH OR NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ARE APT TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY (AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT). HAVE
ACCORDINGLY REDUCED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 4 TO 8 DEGREES INTO THE 56
TO 63 DEGREE RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM FRIDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
RIDGING... BENEATH BUILDING HEIGHTS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
(AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH)... SHOULD YIELD DRY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS 62
TO 69... WARMEST TUESDAY. LOWS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 45.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: A SERIES OF INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ENSUE OFF THE EAST COAST... AS
THE UPPER FORCING APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE.
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE
EAST OF CENTRAL NC... THOUGH THERE PROBABLY WILL BE PERIODS OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/JET
AXIS... PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD AS THE L/W TROUGH AXIS SETTLES IN BY
FRIDAY. HIGHS 60 TO 65 THURSDAY... WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY. LOWS INTO THE 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...

STRATOCUMULUS HAS FINALLY MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KRWI THIS
EVENING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW PRESENT AT ALL CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT INT/GSO/RDU/FAY THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD... WITH POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE. MEANWHILE AT RWI... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH POTENTIALLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD/EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AND
MIXING ENDING... WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY
FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... VIA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER... WITH A TWO DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OBSERVED ALREADY AT
KRWI... EXPECT THEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG
(MVFR/IFR... POSSIBLY LIFR) OVERNIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
AT INT/GSO/RDU/FAY... DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ARE 7 DEGREES OR
GREATER... AND GIVEN THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THESE TAF SITES AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST VIA THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM... EXPECT ANY FOG WE SEE WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE
MVFR CATEGORY.

BY 12 TO 13Z OR SO... LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT RWI SHOULD BEGIN TO
LIFT ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO GO BACK TO RETURN TO VFR. ALL TAF
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY... AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AS A SOUTHERN STREAM STORMS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 8KTS ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION BY MID MORNING AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS AND
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY: A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY BRING MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&


$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...LEP/BSD