000
FXUS62 KRAH 080258
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM THE OFFSHORE PARENT HIGH...WHILE HEIGHTS INCREASE ALOFT AS
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING
UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO. AS A RESULT...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODIFY WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. -BL

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS
REGION. AT 5000FT...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO A W-SW
DIRECTION...ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC NC. 850MB ANALYSIS
AT 00Z DEPICTED 850MB TEMPS AOA 15 DEG C IMMEDIATELY W-SW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT AND A LIGHT ( BUT
SPORADIC) SLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN TEMPS 3-6 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO NEAR TERM FORECAST
EXCEPT TO LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE FAR NE A FEW DEGREES AS WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CALM FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S. -WSS

UNDER AMPLE SUN...AFTN THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID
1375-1377M BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS A GOOD 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. -BL

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...

THIS TIME PERIOD FEATURES A PHASING OF A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH
A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN FOR CENTRAL NC WITH MOISTURE FEEDS FROM BOTH
THE GULF (FROM IDA) AND THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA. BUT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND QPF WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE
POOR... LARGELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES (BOTH AMONG THE MODELS AND
RUN-TO-RUN) WITH THE SPEED AND DEGREE OF DEEPENING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z GFS CLOSES OFF THE VORTEX FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS 06Z RUN BUT
IS JUST AS SLOW WITH THE LOW`S PROGRESS (NOT SHIFTING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT). WITH THIS SOLUTION... RAIN
ARRIVES INTO THE SOUTH/WEST COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ALONG/EAST OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDA`S REMNANT LOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG I-95 IN
EASTERN NC.

ON THE OTHER HAND... THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RESULTING PHASED TROUGH... WHICH RESULTS IN THE
REMNANT LOW HOLDING SOUTHEAST OF NC AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... WHICH SERVES TO SUPPRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THREAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND LEADS TO A FASTER EXIT OF THE
PRECIP. A THIRD (AND OUTLYING) SOLUTION BY THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS
PHASING AND A MUCH WEAKER/FASTER NORTHERN STREAM WITH AN ULTIMATELY
STRONGER-TRENDING SOUTHERN STREAM BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS NAM RUN IS
A DEPARTURE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED AS SPURIOUS.

CONFIDENCE IN STRAIGHT USE OF EITHER OF THE FIRST TWO CAMPS OF
SOLUTIONS IS LOW. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN ERRATIC WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT... BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING STEADILY
STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. PREFERENCE FOR THIS FORECAST
IS TO GO CLOSER TO THE WEAKER ECMWF... KEEPING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC INFLOW AS WELL AS IDA`S REMNANT LOW JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST... AND THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (OVER SOUTHEAST NC) GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRISK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT... DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING OVER 4 KM)...
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 250-300% OF NORMAL. WE WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENT... SINCE A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE EASTERN CWA WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

BASED ON THE ABOVE-NOTED PREFERENCES... WILL TREND SKIES TO PARTLY
THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT... AND EXPAND THEM TO
CHANCE CWA-WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWER
CHANCES NORTH AND HIGHER SOUTH. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE VA
BORDER TO JUST UNDER ONE INCH IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES... BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. REGARDING TEMPS... WITH ABUNDANT
THICK HIGH CLOUDINESS AND SOME LATE NIGHT WARM ADVECTION STRATUS AND
FOG... EXPECT MILD LOWS OF 48-56 MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TUESDAY
HIGHS UP A TAD TO 68-73 BASED ON THICKNESSES OF NEARLY 25 M ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS 47-53 TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY: THE ECMWF PLACES THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EAST COAST WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADING TO OUR EAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST... SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DO AGREE ON PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND
HIGHS MAY END UP OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. WILL NOT SHOW AN ATYPICAL
TREND TO TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AT THIS FAR TIME RANGE... BUT LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THIS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY... WITH DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... HELPING TO PUSH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES RIDGING OFFSHORE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH NO BETTER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
-GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LIGHT (3-5 KT)
SOUTHERLY/SW BREEZE TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD RESULT IN
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS/CBL
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 080224
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
924 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL FADE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WET WEATHER
MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE
SURFACE CENTER WILL FADE OFF TO THE EAST. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WAS OBSERVED OFF THE GA/SC COAST THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE RULE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BESIDES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BEING SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO SYNOPTIC WARM ADVECTION...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED RELATIVE TO LAST NIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE
40S EXTEND VERTICALLY ABOUT 2300 FT ON THE 00Z MHX SOUNDING. THIS IS
ALMOST 2000 FT DEEPER THAN OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GREATER THAN 3 MILES. WE HAVE TWEAKED LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN SPOTS GIVEN THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF HATTERAS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUN AND MON...THOUGH ITS INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH ON MON AS THE CENTER DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE SUN WILL AGAIN SKIES SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP AROUND 3K FT...BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE CLOUDS REMAIN PRETTY FLAT. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND...COMBINED WITH ALMOST
FULL SUN...PUSHES HIGH INTO THE MID 70S. WEAK SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ONSHORE FLOW
AROUND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HELPING KEEP LOWS SUN NIGHT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING SHIFT FARTHER EAST ON MON AS REMNANTS OF
IDA AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE MIDWEST BEGIN TO INTERACT.
SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP MON AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IDA
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY MON MOISTURE ALOFT AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MON WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUN. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROF...WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT STRATIFORM
PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF SC EARLY TUE. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EARLY PERIODS WHEN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE INCREASING INCREMENTALLY WITH A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE. REFRAINED FROM LIKELY POPS DUE TO THE
INHERIT UNCERTAINTY OF THE SITUATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE
MID LEVELS DEVELOPS WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING GIVING WAY TO A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A WARM
START...TEMPERATURES DIP TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WORKING THEIR WAY
BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SE US...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
UPSTREAM FROM TAF TERMINALS AND VERY DRY ALOFT FOR TAF SITES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS OFF THE EAST COAST...CREATING A WEAK
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS.

VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION BEING
MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR OUR TAF
TERMINALS. WIND CALM OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...LESS
THAN 6 KNOTS...PICKING UP BY 16Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED HUNDREDS OF MILES EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WEST AND INTO
THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON OFF THE GA/SC COAST HAS WEAKENED AND SHOULD PLAY LITTLE
ROLE ON OUR WEATHER OVERNIGHT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY LYING
TO OUR NORTH...WIND DIRECTIONS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFUSE LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT
SOUTH. THIS MEANS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND VEER CLOCKWISE
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING W TO NW LATE.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 2 FT AT AREA BUOYS. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS TURNING OFFSHORE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED WITH SEA
HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUN
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW LIGHT INTO MON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP MON AND MON
NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FT MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AS THE DILEMMA CENTERS AROUND
WHAT FORM THE REMNANTS OF IDA EVOLVE INTO AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIGHT NE FLOW FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE.
FEEL A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT A STRONGER NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MASSIVE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAINTAINED THE WINDS IN A 25-30 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS DISPLAYING A
WIDE RANGE OF 4-8 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III/TRA
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MDC

000
FXUS62 KILM 080053 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NEAR/SHORT TERM SECTIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
653 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WET WEATHER MAY
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE OFFSHORE
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH END OF PERIOD...BUT EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...S OF THIS RIDGE...WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
AND MIGRATE S OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS SKIES
CLEAR THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AIRMASS HAS NOT ONLY
MODERATED...BUT ADVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FROM
NEUTRAL TO WARM. THIS COMBINED WITH ORIENTATION OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOES COMPLICATE MINIMUM TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE MARK.
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...WILL STILL
BE FORMIDABLE. THE GREATEST TEMP DROP WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSET. TEMPS WILL DRIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THOSE TRADITIONALLY COLD SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT AND WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY MID 30S DEG
READING IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH MOST AREAS
DROPPING TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. ANY FROST THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THOSE KNOWN COLD SPOTS. FOG IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PREVALENT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW. ALSO MODEL PROFILES
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN 2-3 KFT. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF HATTERAS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION SUN AND MON...THOUGH ITS INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH ON MON AS THE CENTER DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE SUN WILL AGAIN SKIES SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CU DEVELOP AROUND 3K FT...BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENSURE CLOUDS REMAIN PRETTY FLAT. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND...COMBINED WITH ALMOST
FULL SUN...PUSHES HIGH INTO THE MID 70S. WEAK SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ONSHORE FLOW
AROUND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FLOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HELPING KEEP LOWS SUN NIGHT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING SHIFT FARTHER EAST ON MON AS REMNANTS OF
IDA AND DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE MIDWEST BEGIN TO INTERACT.
SURFACE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP MON AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IDA
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY MON MOISTURE ALOFT AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON MON WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUN. LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW...ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING
COASTAL TROF...WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT STRATIFORM
PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF SC EARLY TUE. CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EARLY PERIODS WHEN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE INCREASING INCREMENTALLY WITH A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE. REFRAINED FROM LIKELY POPS DUE TO THE
INHERIT UNCERTAINTY OF THE SITUATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE
MID LEVELS DEVELOPS WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING GIVING WAY TO A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A WARM
START...TEMPERATURES DIP TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WORKING THEIR WAY
BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SE US...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
UPSTREAM FROM TAF TERMINALS AND VERY DRY ALOFT FOR TAF SITES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS OFF THE EAST COAST...CREATING A WEAK
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS.

VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION BEING
MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR OUR TAF
TERMINALS. WIND CALM OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...LESS
THAN 6 KNOTS...PICKING UP BY 16Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE OFFSHORE
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND S OF THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT W OVERNIGHT AS IT
MIGRATES S SUN MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST TRICKY AND
WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
SETTLE ON NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS...WINDS WILL
BACK FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THIS EVE TO NNE OVERNIGHT
AND SUN MORNING AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL
BE FOUND FROM MURRELLS INLET TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER WHERE SEAS
WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR
LESS...LOWEST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUN
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW LIGHT INTO MON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP MON AND MON
NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FT MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AS THE DILEMMA CENTERS AROUND
WHAT FORM THE REMNANTS OF IDA EVOLVE INTO AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIGHT NE FLOW FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE.
FEEL A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT A STRONGER NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MASSIVE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAINTAINED THE WINDS IN A 25-30 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS DISPLAYING A
WIDE RANGE OF 4-8 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MDC

000
FXUS62 KMHX 080029
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
730 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN ON
TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SOME MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATE COULD BRING SOME RAIN
TO THE AREA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IT
OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SAT... SFC HIGH IS JUST OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS
MOST AREAS. SKIES REMAIN CLR OVER THE REGION AND SHLD CONT THAT WAY
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL AGAIN HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ESPCLY SRN CST...LOW MAINLY UPR 30S WITH NRN CST WARMEST...AROUND
50...WHERE BREEZE WILL BE STRONGEST.  LOWERED SRN OBX TEMPS A BIT
GIVEN CURRENT READINGS AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.

FOR SUN THE RIDGE WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION...AND 850
TEMPS WILL JUMP FROM 6C TODAY TO 12C BY SUN AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL COMBINE WITH WARMING TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT... MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN...EXCEPT WITH A
WARMER START TO THE DAY COULD SEE TEMPS A FEW DEG WARMER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MON NT INTO TUE.
MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM IDA IN THE GULF WILL START TO STREAM NE
INTO THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS...BUT BY LATE TUE RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
AREA AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SH WV OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WED...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER/DRIER AIR ON BREEZY NW WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SAT... THE UPPER LVL TROF AND SFC N FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR WED AND WED NT. AS THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SW LOOK FOR TEMPS TO GRADUALLY
REBOUND INTO LATE WEEK. OVERALL A DRY AND WARM FCST AFT RAIN CLEARS
OUT WED...WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SAT... HIGH PRES JUST OFFSHORE WILL AGAIN KEEP SKIES
CLR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL CANT RULE OUT
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG WITH EWN/PGV HAVING BEST CHANCE GIVEN PROXIMITY
TO WATER. VFR TO DOMINATE AGAIN SUN WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING.

HIGH PRES SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT OUTSIDE OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG. FORECAST GETS TRICKY TUE THROUGH WED WITH MOISTURE
FROM TS IDA GETTING CAUGHT UP IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION. COULD SEE REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W LATE WED
AND THU BRINGING STRONG NLY FLOW ACROSS RTES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 730 PM SAT... NO CHANGES PLANNED OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRES JUST
OFFSHORE AND WEAK SFC TRF TO THE W WILL RESULT IN S/SW WINDS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGEST N WITH 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE S
WEAK GRDNT WILL RESULT IN SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS.

PREV DISC...HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
3 FT OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
WHERE A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENTS SLIGHTLY ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 10-15 KT. BY TUE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE MID WEST TOWARD THE REGION. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISCREPENCIES AMONG MODELS IN HANDLING HOW THE
REMNANTS OF TS IDA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO
PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPING MOST OF THE EFFECT S OF THE REGION
ASIDE FROM RELATED MOISTURE THAT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION AND HAVE
DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLUTION OF TRACKING THE REMNANT LOW ACROSS ERN
NC TUE NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING WED AND THU
WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY AND A PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE.



&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SJ
NEAR TERM...RF/SJ
SHORT TERM...SJ
LONG TERM...SJ
AVIATION...RF/SK
MARINE...RF/SK

000
FXUS62 KILM 072349
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
649 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WET WEATHER MAY
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE OFFSHORE
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH END OF PERIOD...BUT EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...S OF THIS RIDGE...WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
AND MIGRATE S OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS SKIES
CLEAR THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AIRMASS HAS NOT ONLY
MODERATED...BUT ADVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FROM
NEUTRAL TO WARM. THIS COMBINED WITH ORIENTATION OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOES COMPLICATE MINIMUM TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE MARK.
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...WILL STILL
BE FORMIDABLE. THE GREATEST TEMP DROP WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSET. TEMPS WILL DRIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THOSE TRADITIONALLY COLD SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT AND WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY MID 30S DEG
READING IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH MOST AREAS
DROPPING TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. ANY FROST THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THOSE KNOWN COLD SPOTS. FOG IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PREVALENT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW. ALSO MODEL PROFILES
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN 2-3 KFT. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS AS IT SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY ON
SHORE FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S. MAY SEE A FEW CU
WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. BY LATE MON RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A DECENT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE SURFACE FLOW
NEVER MAKES IT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT INSTEAD REMAINS EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT DEW POINT TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EXPECT TEMPS EVEN HIGHER BY MON NIGHT AS DEW
POINT TEMPS HEAD UP TOWARD 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EARLY PERIODS WHEN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE INCREASING INCREMENTALLY WITH A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE. REFRAINED FROM LIKELY POPS DUE TO THE
INHERIT UNCERTAINTY OF THE SITUATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE
MID LEVELS DEVELOPS WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING GIVING WAY TO A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A WARM
START...TEMPERATURES DIP TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WORKING THEIR WAY
BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE SE US...UPPER RIDGE AXIS
UPSTREAM FROM TAF TERMINALS AND VERY DRY ALOFT FOR TAF SITES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS OFF THE EAST COAST...CREATING A WEAK
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS.

VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION BEING
MVFR VSBYS WITH FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR OUR TAF
TERMINALS. WIND CALM OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...LESS
THAN 6 KNOTS...PICKING UP BY 16Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE OFFSHORE
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND S OF THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT W OVERNIGHT AS IT
MIGRATES S SUN MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST TRICKY AND
WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
SETTLE ON NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS...WINDS WILL
BACK FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THIS EVE TO NNE OVERNIGHT
AND SUN MORNING AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL
BE FOUND FROM MURRELLS INLET TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER WHERE SEAS
WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR
LESS...LOWEST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUN
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW LIGHT INTO MON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP MON AND MON
NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FT MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AS THE DILEMMA CENTERS AROUND
WHAT FORM THE REMNANTS OF IDA EVOLVE INTO AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIGHT NE FLOW FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE.
FEEL A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT A STRONGER NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MASSIVE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAINTAINED THE WINDS IN A 25-30 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS DISPLAYING A
WIDE RANGE OF 4-8 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MDC
MARINE...

000
FXUS62 KRAH 072348
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
648 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM THE OFFSHORE PARENT HIGH...WHILE HEIGHTS INCREASE ALOFT AS
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING
UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO. AS A RESULT...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODIFY WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MINS TONIGHT IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. UNDER AMPLE
SUN...AFTN THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 1375-1377M
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. -BL

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...

THIS TIME PERIOD FEATURES A PHASING OF A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH
A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN FOR CENTRAL NC WITH MOISTURE FEEDS FROM BOTH
THE GULF (FROM IDA) AND THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA. BUT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND QPF WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE
POOR... LARGELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES (BOTH AMONG THE MODELS AND
RUN-TO-RUN) WITH THE SPEED AND DEGREE OF DEEPENING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z GFS CLOSES OFF THE VORTEX FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS 06Z RUN BUT
IS JUST AS SLOW WITH THE LOW`S PROGRESS (NOT SHIFTING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT). WITH THIS SOLUTION... RAIN
ARRIVES INTO THE SOUTH/WEST COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ALONG/EAST OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDA`S REMNANT LOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG I-95 IN
EASTERN NC.

ON THE OTHER HAND... THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RESULTING PHASED TROUGH... WHICH RESULTS IN THE
REMNANT LOW HOLDING SOUTHEAST OF NC AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... WHICH SERVES TO SUPPRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THREAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND LEADS TO A FASTER EXIT OF THE
PRECIP. A THIRD (AND OUTLYING) SOLUTION BY THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS
PHASING AND A MUCH WEAKER/FASTER NORTHERN STREAM WITH AN ULTIMATELY
STRONGER-TRENDING SOUTHERN STREAM BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS NAM RUN IS
A DEPARTURE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED AS SPURIOUS.

CONFIDENCE IN STRAIGHT USE OF EITHER OF THE FIRST TWO CAMPS OF
SOLUTIONS IS LOW. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN ERRATIC WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT... BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING STEADILY
STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. PREFERENCE FOR THIS FORECAST
IS TO GO CLOSER TO THE WEAKER ECMWF... KEEPING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC INFLOW AS WELL AS IDA`S REMNANT LOW JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST... AND THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (OVER SOUTHEAST NC) GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRISK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT... DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING OVER 4 KM)...
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 250-300% OF NORMAL. WE WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENT... SINCE A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE EASTERN CWA WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

BASED ON THE ABOVE-NOTED PREFERENCES... WILL TREND SKIES TO PARTLY
THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT... AND EXPAND THEM TO
CHANCE CWA-WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWER
CHANCES NORTH AND HIGHER SOUTH. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE VA
BORDER TO JUST UNDER ONE INCH IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES... BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. REGARDING TEMPS... WITH ABUNDANT
THICK HIGH CLOUDINESS AND SOME LATE NIGHT WARM ADVECTION STRATUS AND
FOG... EXPECT MILD LOWS OF 48-56 MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TUESDAY
HIGHS UP A TAD TO 68-73 BASED ON THICKNESSES OF NEARLY 25 M ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS 47-53 TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY: THE ECMWF PLACES THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EAST COAST WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADING TO OUR EAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST... SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DO AGREE ON PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND
HIGHS MAY END UP OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. WILL NOT SHOW AN ATYPICAL
TREND TO TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AT THIS FAR TIME RANGE... BUT LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THIS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY... WITH DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... HELPING TO PUSH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES RIDGING OFFSHORE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH NO BETTER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
-GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
EXCELLENT AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WITH A LIGHT (3-5 KT)
SOUTHERLY/SW BREEZE TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD RESULT IN
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES
PINCHED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 071959
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
259 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WET WEATHER MAY
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE OFFSHORE
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH END OF PERIOD...BUT EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...S OF THIS RIDGE...WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
AND MIGRATE S OVERNIGHT AND SUN MORNING. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS SKIES
CLEAR THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AIRMASS HAS NOT ONLY
MODERATED...BUT ADVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FROM
NEUTRAL TO WARM. THIS COMBINED WITH ORIENTATION OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOES COMPLICATE MINIMUM TEMP FORECAST SOMEWHAT. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE MARK.
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHILE NOT AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT...WILL STILL
BE FORMIDABLE. THE GREATEST TEMP DROP WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE FIRST
SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSET. TEMPS WILL DRIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THOSE TRADITIONALLY COLD SPOTS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT AND WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY MID 30S DEG
READING IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...OVERALL...TEMPS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH MOST AREAS
DROPPING TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. ANY FROST THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THOSE KNOWN COLD SPOTS. FOG IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PREVALENT GIVEN THAT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW. ALSO MODEL PROFILES
INDICATING SOME MOISTURE RETURN IN 2-3 KFT. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
MOST LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS AS IT SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY ON
SHORE FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S. MAY SEE A FEW CU
WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. BY LATE MON RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A DECENT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE SURFACE FLOW
NEVER MAKES IT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT INSTEAD REMAINS EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT DEW POINT TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EXPECT TEMPS EVEN HIGHER BY MON NIGHT AS DEW
POINT TEMPS HEAD UP TOWARD 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED REMAINS ON
THE EARLY PERIODS WHEN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE INCREASING INCREMENTALLY WITH A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE. REFRAINED FROM LIKELY POPS DUE TO THE
INHERIT UNCERTAINTY OF THE SITUATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE
MID LEVELS DEVELOPS WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING GIVING WAY TO A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A WARM
START...TEMPERATURES DIP TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WORKING THEIR WAY
BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED
CIRRUS. STRATO-CUMULUS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AND SOUTH AT FLO/LBT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AT ALL TERMINALS AS
THE INVERSION SETS UP AROUND 23Z. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DUE TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH CALM
WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW PATCHY PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SINCE MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING IN THE 2-3K LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IFR
VISIBILITIES. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE MOST LIKELY...AND COULD OCCUR
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AT CRE. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE OFFSHORE
OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND S OF THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT W OVERNIGHT AS IT
MIGRATES S SUN MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST TRICKY AND
WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
SETTLE ON NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS...WINDS WILL
BACK FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THIS EVE TO NNE OVERNIGHT
AND SUN MORNING AS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL
BE FOUND FROM MURRELLS INLET TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER WHERE SEAS
WILL BUILD UP TO 4 FT TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR
LESS...LOWEST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WATERS ON SUN
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW LIGHT INTO MON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN UP MON AND MON
NIGHT AS REMNANTS OF IDA MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FT MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AS THE DILEMMA CENTERS AROUND
WHAT FORM THE REMNANTS OF IDA EVOLVE INTO AND THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE LIGHT NE FLOW FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE.
FEEL A LITTLE BETTER ABOUT A STRONGER NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MASSIVE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAINTAINED THE WINDS IN A 25-30 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS DISPLAYING A
WIDE RANGE OF 4-8 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 071956
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... SURFACE RIDGING WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
FROM THE OFFSHORE PARENT HIGH...WHILE HEIGHTS INCREASE ALOFT AS
UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE SE IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING
UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO. AS A RESULT...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
MODIFY WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL MINS TONIGHT IN THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. UNDER AMPLE
SUN...AFTN THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 1375-1377M
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. -BL

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...

THIS TIME PERIOD FEATURES A PHASING OF A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO... WITH
A DECENT SHOT AT RAIN FOR CENTRAL NC WITH MOISTURE FEEDS FROM BOTH
THE GULF (FROM IDA) AND THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA. BUT MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND QPF WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE
POOR... LARGELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES (BOTH AMONG THE MODELS AND
RUN-TO-RUN) WITH THE SPEED AND DEGREE OF DEEPENING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE 12Z GFS CLOSES OFF THE VORTEX FARTHER SOUTH THAN ITS 06Z RUN BUT
IS JUST AS SLOW WITH THE LOW`S PROGRESS (NOT SHIFTING OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT). WITH THIS SOLUTION... RAIN
ARRIVES INTO THE SOUTH/WEST COUNTIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVERSPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS ALONG/EAST OF
WHAT APPEARS TO BE IDA`S REMNANT LOW AS IT TRACKS ALONG I-95 IN
EASTERN NC.

ON THE OTHER HAND... THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RESULTING PHASED TROUGH... WHICH RESULTS IN THE
REMNANT LOW HOLDING SOUTHEAST OF NC AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT COMING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... WHICH SERVES TO SUPPRESS THE HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THREAT TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND LEADS TO A FASTER EXIT OF THE
PRECIP. A THIRD (AND OUTLYING) SOLUTION BY THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS
PHASING AND A MUCH WEAKER/FASTER NORTHERN STREAM WITH AN ULTIMATELY
STRONGER-TRENDING SOUTHERN STREAM BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS NAM RUN IS
A DEPARTURE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND HAS BEEN DISCARDED AS SPURIOUS.

CONFIDENCE IN STRAIGHT USE OF EITHER OF THE FIRST TWO CAMPS OF
SOLUTIONS IS LOW. THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN ERRATIC WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT... BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING STEADILY
STRONGER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. PREFERENCE FOR THIS FORECAST
IS TO GO CLOSER TO THE WEAKER ECMWF... KEEPING THE BETTER LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC INFLOW AS WELL AS IDA`S REMNANT LOW JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST... AND THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GEFS MEAN. HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (OVER SOUTHEAST NC) GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR BRISK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT... DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL TO FREEZING OVER 4 KM)...
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 250-300% OF NORMAL. WE WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENT... SINCE A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER AIR INTO THE EASTERN CWA WITH A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

BASED ON THE ABOVE-NOTED PREFERENCES... WILL TREND SKIES TO PARTLY
THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT... AND EXPAND THEM TO
CHANCE CWA-WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH LOWER
CHANCES NORTH AND HIGHER SOUTH. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH NEAR THE VA
BORDER TO JUST UNDER ONE INCH IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES... BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. REGARDING TEMPS... WITH ABUNDANT
THICK HIGH CLOUDINESS AND SOME LATE NIGHT WARM ADVECTION STRATUS AND
FOG... EXPECT MILD LOWS OF 48-56 MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TUESDAY
HIGHS UP A TAD TO 68-73 BASED ON THICKNESSES OF NEARLY 25 M ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS 47-53 TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY: THE ECMWF PLACES THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
EAST COAST WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HEADING TO OUR EAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST... SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DO AGREE ON PLUMMETING
THICKNESSES THROUGH THE DAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION... AND
HIGHS MAY END UP OCCURRING IN THE MORNING. WILL NOT SHOW AN ATYPICAL
TREND TO TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY AT THIS FAR TIME RANGE... BUT LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THIS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY... WITH DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... HELPING TO PUSH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES RIDGING OFFSHORE. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH NO BETTER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THE
RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
-GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM A PARENT
HIGH CELL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SUPPORT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW COULD RESULT
IN IFR TO LIFR CEILING WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KRAH 071828
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL SPREAD INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...

1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...AM
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...GENERALLY JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. -KRR

DESPITE AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR TWO (TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH) AND CONTINUED AIR MASS
MODIFICATION TONIGHT... CONTINUED CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OF GENERALLY 35 TO 40 DEGREES EXPECTED...
WITH PATCHY FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...

MAINLY JUST A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN THIS PERIOD GIVEN CONTINUED
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT... WHEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF IDA SHOULD STREAM INTO THE CAROLINAS.
LATEST HPC/TPC PREFERRED TRACK AND TIMING SUGGEST ANY ASSOCIATED
CENTRAL NC PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SUGGEST LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IF OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER/FASTER
TO ARRIVE... THEN THESE LOWS MAY NEED A DOWNWARD/UPWARD ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. IN ADDITION... A MAJOR PLAYER
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS TO BE A POLAR OR
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY VEERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS FROM SW TO NW... EFFECTIVELY PUSHING OR KEEPING MUCH OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING THIS FAR NORTHWARD. ANOTHER BIG
PLAYER IN THE MIX APPEARS TO BE THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AS WELL
AS HOW THEY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER IN TIME... WERE STILL IN
QUESTION THIS MORNING. THEY WILL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN SUMMARY... THE CANADIAN CONTINUED TO BE AN EXTREME OUTLIER WITH A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS MOISTURE (AND WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE). THE NAM AND SREF KEEP THE REMNANTS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH (WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING OUR REGION). THE
GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT TPC
FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH A CHILLY NE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
DEPICTED WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. UNLESS
THE FORECAST CHANGES... THIS WOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR
OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM A PARENT
HIGH CELL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SUPPORT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW COULD RESULT
IN IFR TO LIFR CEILING WITH HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...KRR/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL

000
FXUS62 KILM 071721
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1221 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...IT WAS ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT FREEZE OCCURRED IN SEVERAL AREAS LAST NIGHT
(TEMP 32 DEG OR LOWER). FROST WAS OBSERVED INLAND ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THE ONLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL OBSERVATION OF
FROST THAT WE ARE AWARE OF OCCURRED AT SURF CITY. SINCE TEMPS DID
NOT FALL TO 30 DEG OR LESS ACROSS HALF OR MORE OF ANY ONE ZONE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR ALL AREAS. THE
PROGRAM WILL END NO LATER THAN DECEMBER 1.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE VIRGINIA CAPES
TO CAE WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COLDEST NIGHT IS BEHIND US FOR THIS COLD SNAP AND WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A FREEZE TONIGHT AND ANY FROST INLAND WILL BE ISOLATED AT
MOST.

A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SUPPORT MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS PUTS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT/LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTED
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN ON
FRI...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.

WILL REEVALUATE THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF OVERNIGHT FOG WITH THE
NOON TIME UPDATE.

BELOW ARE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATES OF THE FIRST FROST AND FREEZE
FOR LOCATIONS BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS. THE FIRST FREEZE IS
DEFINED AS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 32 DEGREES. PERHAPS A LITTLE
LESS SCIENTIFIC BUT STILL POTENTIALLY USEFUL...WE`LL USE THE FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF 37 DEGREES AS DATE OF THE FIRST FROST.

WILMINGTON......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 18
FLORENCE........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 25. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 11
CONWAY..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 17
MYRTLE BEACH....AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 19
ELIZABETHTOWN...AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 20. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 2
LUMBERTON (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 15. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 28
WHITEVILLE......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 21. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 31
SOUTHPORT (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 8
GEORGETOWN......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 22
LAKE CITY.......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 9
MARION..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 22. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 30

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS AS IT SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY ON
SHORE FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S. MAY SEE A FEW CU
WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. BY LATE MON RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A DECENT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE SURFACE FLOW
NEVER MAKES IT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT INSTEAD REMAINS EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT DEW POINT TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EXPECT TEMPS EVEN HIGHER BY MON NIGHT AS DEW
POINT TEMPS HEAD UP TOWARD 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BY TUESDAY QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GETS
PULLED UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
WHILE H5 TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE TUES
LOOKS LIKE SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE S-SE WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OUT OF THE N-NE.
THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHC OF PCP AS PCP WATER REACHES ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT BY WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH WED INTO THURS. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF
SHORE AND E-SE FLOW MAY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PCP IN THE FORECAST FOR TUES WITH BEST SHOT OF PCP TUES NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THEN EXPECT SUNNY BUT COLDER WEATHER WED THROUGH
THURS.

TEMPS THROUGH TUES WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 70S...BUT WILL DROP OUT
WED INTO THURS WITH PLENTY OF CAA IN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THURS. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BY FRI BACK UP AROUND 70.
COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WED WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR 40 OR BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED
CIRRUS. STRATO-CUMULUS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AND SOUTH AT FLO/LBT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AT ALL TERMINALS AS
THE INVERSION SETS UP AROUND 23Z. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DUE TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH CALM
WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW PATCHY PATCHY
GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SINCE MOISTURE
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING IN THE 2-3K LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT IFR
VISIBILITIES. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE MOST LIKELY...AND COULD OCCUR
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AT CRE. THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY...BUT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER. CHANCE IFR CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE...OVERHEAD
TODAY...WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SEAWARD THIS PERIOD. THE RESULTING SLACK
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM ENE TO ESE OR SE THIS PERIOD AND AT TIMES WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIP
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING ONSHORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WINDS ON SUN WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR
SHORE ON SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

BY MON GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...PRODUCING AN INCREASING EASTERLY WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING ON SHORE WINDS SHOULD
DRIVE SEAS UP MON THROUGH EARLY TUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 FT
IN OUTER WATERS BY TUES MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING FARTHER OFF
SHORE. A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND A MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURGE. SEAS SHOULD START OUT JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUES BUT
WILL SOON INCREASE WELL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUES NIGHT INTO WED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS. WNA MODEL DATA SHOWING SEAS
PEAKING WED NIGHT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE
WATERS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH LOWER NEAR 3 FT WITH MORE OF AN OFF
SHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KILM 071610 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1108 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...IT WAS ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT FREEZE OCCURRED IN SEVERAL AREAS LAST NIGHT
(TEMP 32 DEG OR LOWER). FROST WAS OBSERVED INLAND ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THE ONLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL OBSERVATION OF
FROST THAT WE ARE AWARE OF OCCURRED AT SURF CITY. SINCE TEMPS DID
NOT FALL TO 30 DEG OR LESS ACROSS HALF OR MORE OF ANY ONE ZONE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR ALL AREAS. THE
PROGRAM WILL END NO LATER THAN DECEMBER 1.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE VIRGINIA CAPES
TO CAE WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COLDEST NIGHT IS BEHIND US FOR THIS COLD SNAP AND WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A FREEZE TONIGHT AND ANY FROST INLAND WILL BE ISOLATED AT
MOST.

A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SUPPORT MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS PUTS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT/LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTED
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN ON
FRI...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.

WILL REEVALUATE THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF OVERNIGHT FOG WITH THE
NOON TIME UPDATE.

BELOW ARE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATES OF THE FIRST FROST AND FREEZE
FOR LOCATIONS BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS. THE FIRST FREEZE IS
DEFINED AS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 32 DEGREES. PERHAPS A LITTLE
LESS SCIENTIFIC BUT STILL POTENTIALLY USEFUL...WE`LL USE THE FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF 37 DEGREES AS DATE OF THE FIRST FROST.

WILMINGTON......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 18
FLORENCE........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 25. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 11
CONWAY..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 17
MYRTLE BEACH....AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 19
ELIZABETHTOWN...AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 20. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 2
LUMBERTON (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 15. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 28
WHITEVILLE......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 21. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 31
SOUTHPORT (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 8
GEORGETOWN......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 22
LAKE CITY.......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 9
MARION..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 22. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 30

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS AS IT SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY ON
SHORE FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S. MAY SEE A FEW CU
WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. BY LATE MON RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A DECENT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE SURFACE FLOW
NEVER MAKES IT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT INSTEAD REMAINS EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT DEW POINT TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EXPECT TEMPS EVEN HIGHER BY MON NIGHT AS DEW
POINT TEMPS HEAD UP TOWARD 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BY TUESDAY QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GETS
PULLED UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
WHILE H5 TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE TUES
LOOKS LIKE SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE S-SE WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OUT OF THE N-NE.
THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHC OF PCP AS PCP WATER REACHES ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT BY WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH WED INTO THURS. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF
SHORE AND E-SE FLOW MAY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PCP IN THE FORECAST FOR TUES WITH BEST SHOT OF PCP TUES NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THEN EXPECT SUNNY BUT COLDER WEATHER WED THROUGH
THURS.

TEMPS THROUGH TUES WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 70S...BUT WILL DROP OUT
WED INTO THURS WITH PLENTY OF CAA IN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THURS. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BY FRI BACK UP AROUND 70.
COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WED WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR 40 OR BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY THIN SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED.
STRATO-CUMULUS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KNOTS AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND TO THE
SOUTH AT FLO/LBT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE
INVERSION SETS UP AROUND 23Z. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING DUE
TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE DAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING...WITH THE FOG MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT CRE. SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED DO
NOT EXPECT IFR OR AN EXTENSIVE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. ADDITIONALLY
BY MIDNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 2-3K WHICH
COULD INHIBIT FURTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE...OVERHEAD
TODAY...WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SEAWARD THIS PERIOD. THE RESULTING SLACK
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM ENE TO ESE OR SE THIS PERIOD AND AT TIMES WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIP
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING ONSHORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WINDS ON SUN WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR
SHORE ON SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

BY MON GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...PRODUCING AN INCREASING EASTERLY WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING ON SHORE WINDS SHOULD
DRIVE SEAS UP MON THROUGH EARLY TUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 FT
IN OUTER WATERS BY TUES MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING FARTHER OFF
SHORE. A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND A MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURGE. SEAS SHOULD START OUT JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUES BUT
WILL SOON INCREASE WELL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUES NIGHT INTO WED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS. WNA MODEL DATA SHOWING SEAS
PEAKING WED NIGHT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE
WATERS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH LOWER NEAR 3 FT WITH MORE OF AN OFF
SHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KILM 071609
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1108 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...IT WAS ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT FREEZE OCCURRED IN SEVERAL AREAS LAST NIGHT
(TEMP 32 DEG OR LOWER). FROST WAS OBSERVED INLAND ALL THE WAY DOWN
TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THE ONLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL OBSERVATION OF
FROST THAT WE ARE AWARE OF OCCURRED AT SURF CITY. SINCE TEMPS DID
NOT FALL TO 30 DEG OR LESS ACROSS HALF OR MORE OF ANY ONE ZONE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR ALL AREAS. THE
PROGRAM WILL END NO LATER THAN DECEMBER 1.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE VIRGINIA CAPES
TO CAE WILL VERY SLOWLY EDGE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COLDEST NIGHT IS BEHIND US FOR THIS COLD SNAP AND WE ARE EXPECTING A
FREEZE TONIGHT AND ANY FROST INLAND WILL BE ISOLATED AT MOST.

A CLOSE EXAMINATION OF SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SUPPORT MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS PUTS MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT/LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHLIGHTED
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN ON
FRI...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV.

WILL REEVALUATE THE EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF OVERNIGHT FOG WITH THE
NOON TIME UPDATE.

BELOW ARE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATES OF THE FIRST FROST AND FREEZE
FOR LOCATIONS BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS. THE FIRST FREEZE IS
DEFINED AS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 32 DEGREES. PERHAPS A LITTLE
LESS SCIENTIFIC BUT STILL POTENTIALLY USEFUL...WE`LL USE THE FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF 37 DEGREES AS DATE OF THE FIRST FROST.

WILMINGTON......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 18
FLORENCE........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 25. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 11
CONWAY..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 17
MYRTLE BEACH....AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 19
ELIZABETHTOWN...AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 20. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 2
LUMBERTON (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 15. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 28
WHITEVILLE......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 21. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 31
SOUTHPORT (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 8
GEORGETOWN......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 22
LAKE CITY.......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 9
MARION..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 22. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 30

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS AS IT SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY ON
SHORE FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S. MAY SEE A FEW CU
WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. BY LATE MON RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A DECENT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE SURFACE FLOW
NEVER MAKES IT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT INSTEAD REMAINS EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT DEW POINT TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EXPECT TEMPS EVEN HIGHER BY MON NIGHT AS DEW
POINT TEMPS HEAD UP TOWARD 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BY TUESDAY QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GETS
PULLED UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
WHILE H5 TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE TUES
LOOKS LIKE SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE S-SE WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OUT OF THE N-NE.
THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHC OF PCP AS PCP WATER REACHES ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT BY WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH WED INTO THURS. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF
SHORE AND E-SE FLOW MAY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PCP IN THE FORECAST FOR TUES WITH BEST SHOT OF PCP TUES NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THEN EXPECT SUNNY BUT COLDER WEATHER WED THROUGH
THURS.

TEMPS THROUGH TUES WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 70S...BUT WILL DROP OUT
WED INTO THURS WITH PLENTY OF CAA IN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THURS. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BY FRI BACK UP AROUND 70.
COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WED WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR 40 OR BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY THIN SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED.
STRATO-CUMULUS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 5
KNOTS AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL THEN
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND TO THE
SOUTH AT FLO/LBT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE
INVERSION SETS UP AROUND 23Z. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING DUE
TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE DAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING...WITH THE FOG MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT CRE. SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED DO
NOT EXPECT IFR OR AN EXTENSIVE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. ADDITIONALLY
BY MIDNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 2-3K WHICH
COULD INHIBIT FURTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 11 AM SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE...OVERHEAD
TODAY...WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE SEAWARD THIS PERIOD. THE RESULTING SLACK
GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM ENE TO ESE OR SE THIS PERIOD AND AT TIMES WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIP
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING ONSHORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WINDS ON SUN WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR
SHORE ON SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

BY MON GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...PRODUCING AN INCREASING EASTERLY WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING ON SHORE WINDS SHOULD
DRIVE SEAS UP MON THROUGH EARLY TUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 FT
IN OUTER WATERS BY TUES MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING FARTHER OFF
SHORE. A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND A MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURGE. SEAS SHOULD START OUT JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUES BUT
WILL SOON INCREASE WELL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUES NIGHT INTO WED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS. WNA MODEL DATA SHOWING SEAS
PEAKING WED NIGHT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE
WATERS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH LOWER NEAR 3 FT WITH MORE OF AN OFF
SHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KMHX 071549
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1049 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 840 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY/FROSTY START TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE. SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE N...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TODAY...MEANWHILE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER US FROM THE SW. THE
COMBINATION OF BUILDING RIDGE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
SECONDARY HIGH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NAM AS USUAL IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING COASTAL TROUGH LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS/PORTIONS OF THE SE COAST. WE PREFERRED THE GFS WHICH HAS A
WEAKER SYSTEM...FORECASTS LESS QPF AND PLACES THE PRECIPITATION
EMPHASIS TO THE SOUTH. TONIGHTS FORECAST LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW MOS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM
WINDS BUT FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S SO NUDGED UP LOWS TO
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.

MADE NO CHANGES TO TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. MOISTURE FROM TD IDA AND/OR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THIS SYSTEM SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH GULF
MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF IDA GET ADVECTED NORTH TO INTERACT WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM MID WEEK. ALSO INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS
FORECASTING LOW PRESSURE OFF GA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THAT SYSTEM AND SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEING SHUNTED SOUTH DUE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST) AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO ALL OF THE
UNCERTAINTY BUT THEN HAVE A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM SAT...A CRISP MORNING THAT ALLOWED SHALLOW STEAM FOG
TO FORM ALONG INLAND RIVERS AFFECTED PGV AND EWN WITH REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS SINCE BURNED OFF. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STEAM FOG ALONG THE RIVERS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AFFECTING PGV AND EWN WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS...OTHERWISE
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
FOG POSSIBLE UNDER LOW LEVEL INVERSION THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS
THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1030 AM SAT...LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY BRINGING GREAT BOATING
CONDITIONS. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/SJ
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/SK

000
FXUS62 KRAH 071504
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1004 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RAPIDLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM SATURDAY...

1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN VIRGINA AND
NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY...AM
EXPECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...GENERALLY JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. -KRR

DESPITE AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR TWO (TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH) AND CONTINUED AIR MASS
MODIFICATION TONIGHT... CONTINUED CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OF GENERALLY 35 TO 40 DEGREES EXPECTED...
WITH PATCHY FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...

MAINLY JUST A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN THIS PERIOD GIVEN CONTINUED
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT... WHEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF IDA SHOULD STREAM INTO THE CAROLINAS.
LATEST HPC/TPC PREFERRED TRACK AND TIMING SUGGEST ANY ASSOCIATED
CENTRAL NC PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SUGGEST LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IF OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER/FASTER
TO ARRIVE... THEN THESE LOWS MAY NEED A DOWNWARD/UPWARD ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. IN ADDITION... A MAJOR PLAYER
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS TO BE A POLAR OR
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY VEERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS FROM SW TO NW... EFFECTIVELY PUSHING OR KEEPING MUCH OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING THIS FAR NORTHWARD. ANOTHER BIG
PLAYER IN THE MIX APPEARS TO BE THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AS WELL
AS HOW THEY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER IN TIME... WERE STILL IN
QUESTION THIS MORNING. THEY WILL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN SUMMARY... THE CANADIAN CONTINUED TO BE AN EXTREME OUTLIER WITH A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS MOISTURE (AND WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE). THE NAM AND SREF KEEP THE REMNANTS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH (WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING OUR REGION). THE
GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT TPC
FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH A CHILLY NE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
DEPICTED WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. UNLESS
THE FORECAST CHANGES... THIS WOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR
OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

THE NEXT SHOT AT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARD
OUR REGION. HOWEVER... THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PULLED
THIS FAR NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...KRR/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT

000
FXUS62 KRAH 071409
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
909 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RAPIDLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 AM SATURDAY...

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING. ANOTHER AFD WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY TO ADDRESS ANY OTHER FORECAST CONCERNS.

1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN VA AND NC THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH NC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BENEATH A MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO EXPAND FROM THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. ASIDE FROM THE PASSAGE OF SOME CIRRUS
FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS MORNING -- THE BULK OF WHICH SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF NC -- SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY... AND SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S (WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS).

DESPITE AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR TWO (TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH) AND CONTINUED AIR MASS
MODIFICATION TONIGHT... CONTINUED CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OF GENERALLY 35 TO 40 DEGREES EXPECTED...
WITH PATCHY FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...

MAINLY JUST A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN THIS PERIOD GIVEN CONTINUED
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT... WHEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF IDA SHOULD STREAM INTO THE CAROLINAS.
LATEST HPC/TPC PREFERRED TRACK AND TIMING SUGGEST ANY ASSOCIATED
CENTRAL NC PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SUGGEST LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IF OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER/FASTER
TO ARRIVE... THEN THESE LOWS MAY NEED A DOWNWARD/UPWARD ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. IN ADDITION... A MAJOR PLAYER
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS TO BE A POLAR OR
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY VEERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS FROM SW TO NW... EFFECTIVELY PUSHING OR KEEPING MUCH OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING THIS FAR NORTHWARD. ANOTHER BIG
PLAYER IN THE MIX APPEARS TO BE THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AS WELL
AS HOW THEY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER IN TIME... WERE STILL IN
QUESTION THIS MORNING. THEY WILL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN SUMMARY... THE CANADIAN CONTINUED TO BE AN EXTREME OUTLIER WITH A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS MOISTURE (AND WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE). THE NAM AND SREF KEEP THE REMNANTS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH (WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING OUR REGION). THE
GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT TPC
FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH A CHILLY NE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
DEPICTED WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. UNLESS
THE FORECAST CHANGES... THIS WOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR
OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

THE NEXT SHOT AT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARD
OUR REGION. HOWEVER... THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PULLED
THIS FAR NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...KRR/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT

000
FXUS62 KMHX 071359
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
850 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY/FROSTY START TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE. SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE N...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TODAY...MEANWHILE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER US FROM THE SW. THE
COMBINATION OF BUILDING RIDGE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
SECONDARY HIGH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NAM AS USUAL IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING COASTAL TROUGH LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS/PORTIONS OF THE SE COAST. WE PREFERRED THE GFS WHICH HAS A
WEAKER SYSTEM...FORECASTS LESS QPF AND PLACES THE PRECIPITATION
EMPHASIS TO THE SOUTH. TONIGHTS FORECAST LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW MOS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM
WINDS BUT FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S SO NUDGED UP LOWS TO
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.

MADE NO CHANGES TO TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. MOISTURE FROM TD IDA AND/OR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THIS SYSTEM SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH GULF
MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF IDA GET ADVECTED NORTH TO INTERACT WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM MID WEEK. ALSO INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS
FORECASTING LOW PRESSURE OFF GA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THAT SYSTEM AND SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEING SHUNTED SOUTH DUE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST) AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO ALL OF THE
UNCERTAINTY BUT THEN HAVE A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...VFR/SKC THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE UNDER
LOW LEVEL INVERSION THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS THE FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM/JME
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

000
FXUS62 KRAH 071134
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
635 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RAPIDLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST TO 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING.

1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN VA AND NC THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH NC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BENEATH A MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO EXPAND FROM THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. ASIDE FROM THE PASSAGE OF SOME CIRRUS
FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS MORNING -- THE BULK OF WHICH SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF NC -- SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY... AND SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S (WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS).

DESPITE AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR TWO (TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH) AND CONTINUED AIR MASS
MODIFICATION TONIGHT... CONTINUED CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OF GENERALLY 35 TO 40 DEGREES EXPECTED...
WITH PATCHY FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...

MAINLY JUST A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN THIS PERIOD GIVEN CONTINUED
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT... WHEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF IDA SHOULD STREAM INTO THE CAROLINAS.
LATEST HPC/TPC PREFERRED TRACK AND TIMING SUGGEST ANY ASSOCIATED
CENTRAL NC PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SUGGEST LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IF OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER/FASTER
TO ARRIVE... THEN THESE LOWS MAY NEED A DOWNWARD/UPWARD ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. IN ADDITION... A MAJOR PLAYER
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS TO BE A POLAR OR
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY VEERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS FROM SW TO NW... EFFECTIVELY PUSHING OR KEEPING MUCH OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING THIS FAR NORTHWARD. ANOTHER BIG
PLAYER IN THE MIX APPEARS TO BE THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AS WELL
AS HOW THEY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER IN TIME... WERE STILL IN
QUESTION THIS MORNING. THEY WILL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN SUMMARY... THE CANADIAN CONTINUED TO BE AN EXTREME OUTLIER WITH A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS MOISTURE (AND WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE). THE NAM AND SREF KEEP THE REMNANTS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH (WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING OUR REGION). THE
GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT TPC
FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH A CHILLY NE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
DEPICTED WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. UNLESS
THE FORECAST CHANGES... THIS WOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR
OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

THE NEXT SHOT AT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARD
OUR REGION. HOWEVER... THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PULLED
THIS FAR NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...BADGETT

000
FXUS62 KILM 071129
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS BEEN WITHIN
ABOUT A DEGREE OF ACTUAL READINGS SO FAR THIS MORNING SO WILL LET
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RIDE AS IS THROUGH 8
AM. READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S AT THE
COAST...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE USUAL COLD
PRONE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT COOL AND VERY DRY SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVERHEAD WHILE REORIENTING ITSELF INTO A
MORE EAST/WEST DIRECTION. MEANWHILE...H/5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHILE
REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL HAVE ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN UNDER THIS REGIME AND WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING EXPECT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...COMING IN PRETTY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MID TO UPPER 60S MOST PLACES. DO NOT EXPECT A RETURN OF
FROST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL...UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

BELOW ARE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATES OF THE FIRST FROST AND FREEZE
FOR LOCATIONS BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS. THE FIRST FREEZE IS
DEFINED AS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 32 DEGREES. PERHAPS A LITTLE
LESS SCIENTIFIC BUT STILL POTENTIALLY USEFUL...WE`LL USE THE FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF 37 DEGREES AS DATE OF THE FIRST FROST.

WILMINGTON......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 18
FLORENCE........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 25. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 11
CONWAY..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 17
MYRTLE BEACH....AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 19
ELIZABETHTOWN...AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 20. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 2
LUMBERTON (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 15. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 28
WHITEVILLE......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 21. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 31
SOUTHPORT (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 8
GEORGETOWN......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 22
LAKE CITY.......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 9
MARION..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 22. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 30

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS AS IT SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY ON
SHORE FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S. MAY SEE A FEW CU
WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. BY LATE MON RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A DECENT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE SURFACE FLOW
NEVER MAKES IT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT INSTEAD REMAINS EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT DEW POINT TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EXPECT TEMPS EVEN HIGHER BY MON NIGHT AS DEW
POINT TEMPS HEAD UP TOWARD 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BY TUESDAY QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GETS
PULLED UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
WHILE H5 TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE TUES
LOOKS LIKE SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE S-SE WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OUT OF THE N-NE.
THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHC OF PCP AS PCP WATER REACHES ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT BY WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH WED INTO THURS. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF
SHORE AND E-SE FLOW MAY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PCP IN THE FORECAST FOR TUES WITH BEST SHOT OF PCP TUES NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THEN EXPECT SUNNY BUT COLDER WEATHER WED THROUGH
THURS.

TEMPS THROUGH TUES WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 70S...BUT WILL DROP OUT
WED INTO THURS WITH PLENTY OF CAA IN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THURS. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BY FRI BACK UP AROUND 70.
COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WED WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR 40 OR BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY THIN SCATTERED CIRRUS EXPECTED.
STRATO-CUMULUS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS
AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND TO THE SOUTH AT
FLO/LBT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TERMINALS AS THE
INVERSION SETS UP AROUND 23Z. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING DUE
TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE DAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS EVENING...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING...WITH THE FOG MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT CRE. SINCE THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED DO
NOT EXPECT IFR OR AN EXTENSIVE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. ADDITIONALLY
BY MIDNIGHT THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT 2-3K WHICH
COULD INHIBIT FURTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVERHEAD WHILE REORIENTING ITSELF INTO A MORE
EAST/WEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY TODAY FROM THEIR PRESENT NELY DIRECTION WHILE
REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...10 KTS OR LESS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES RIGHT OVERHEAD. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIP
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING ONSHORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WINDS ON SUN WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR
SHORE ON SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

BY MON GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...PRODUCING AN INCREASING EASTERLY WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING ON SHORE WINDS SHOULD
DRIVE SEAS UP MON THROUGH EARLY TUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 FT
IN OUTER WATERS BY TUES MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING FARTHER OFF
SHORE. A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND A MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURGE. SEAS SHOULD START OUT JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUES BUT
WILL SOON INCREASE WELL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUES NIGHT INTO WED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS. WNA MODEL DATA SHOWING SEAS
PEAKING WED NIGHT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE
WATERS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH LOWER NEAR 3 FT WITH MORE OF AN OFF
SHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ032>034-039-
     046.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ099>101.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-097.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 070744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
244 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RAPIDLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST TO 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING.

1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN VA AND NC THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH NC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BENEATH A MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO EXPAND FROM THE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. ASIDE FROM THE PASSAGE OF SOME CIRRUS
FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS MORNING -- THE BULK OF WHICH SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF NC -- SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THE PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY... AND SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S (WITH A FEW UPPER 60S OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS).

DESPITE AN INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR TWO (TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH) AND CONTINUED AIR MASS
MODIFICATION TONIGHT... CONTINUED CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITHIN
THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES OF GENERALLY 35 TO 40 DEGREES EXPECTED...
WITH PATCHY FROST AGAIN POSSIBLE AWAY FROM URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY...

MAINLY JUST A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AGAIN THIS PERIOD GIVEN CONTINUED
LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING PROJECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE UNTIL
LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT... WHEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A TROPICAL PLUME AHEAD OF IDA SHOULD STREAM INTO THE CAROLINAS.
LATEST HPC/TPC PREFERRED TRACK AND TIMING SUGGEST ANY ASSOCIATED
CENTRAL NC PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SUGGEST LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. IF OPAQUE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER/FASTER
TO ARRIVE... THEN THESE LOWS MAY NEED A DOWNWARD/UPWARD ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS WITH THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. IN ADDITION... A MAJOR PLAYER
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STILL APPEARS TO BE A POLAR OR
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE IS STILL FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOO QUICKLY INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY VEERING THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WINDS FROM SW TO NW... EFFECTIVELY PUSHING OR KEEPING MUCH OF
THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING THIS FAR NORTHWARD. ANOTHER BIG
PLAYER IN THE MIX APPEARS TO BE THE STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AS WELL
AS HOW THEY INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER IN TIME... WERE STILL IN
QUESTION THIS MORNING. THEY WILL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN SUMMARY... THE CANADIAN CONTINUED TO BE AN EXTREME OUTLIER WITH A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS MOISTURE (AND WEAKER WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE). THE NAM AND SREF KEEP THE REMNANTS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH (WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING OUR REGION). THE
GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AS IT IS CLOSEST TO THE CURRENT TPC
FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... WITH A CHILLY NE FLOW DEVELOPING TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS
DEPICTED WELL AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. UNLESS
THE FORECAST CHANGES... THIS WOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR
OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY:
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

THE NEXT SHOT AT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARD
OUR REGION. HOWEVER... THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PULLED
THIS FAR NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT/BADGETT

000
FXUS62 KILM 070730
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FORECAST TEMPERATURE CURVE HAS BEEN WITHIN
ABOUT A DEGREE OF ACTUAL READINGS SO FAR THIS MORNING SO WILL LET
CURRENT FREEZE WARNING FOR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA RIDE AS IS THROUGH 8
AM. READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S AT THE
COAST...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE USUAL COLD
PRONE LOCATIONS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT COOL AND VERY DRY SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVERHEAD WHILE REORIENTING ITSELF INTO A
MORE EAST/WEST DIRECTION. MEANWHILE...H/5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY WHILE
REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL HAVE ESSENTIALLY SHUT DOWN UNDER THIS REGIME AND WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING EXPECT TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...COMING IN PRETTY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MID TO UPPER 60S MOST PLACES. DO NOT EXPECT A RETURN OF
FROST OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL...UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

BELOW ARE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATES OF THE FIRST FROST AND FREEZE
FOR LOCATIONS BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS. THE FIRST FREEZE IS
DEFINED AS THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 32 DEGREES. PERHAPS A LITTLE
LESS SCIENTIFIC BUT STILL POTENTIALLY USEFUL...WE`LL USE THE FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF 37 DEGREES AS DATE OF THE FIRST FROST.

WILMINGTON......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 18
FLORENCE........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 25. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 11
CONWAY..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 17
MYRTLE BEACH....AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 19
ELIZABETHTOWN...AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 20. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 2
LUMBERTON (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 15. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 28
WHITEVILLE......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 21. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 31
SOUTHPORT (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 8
GEORGETOWN......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 22
LAKE CITY.......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 9
MARION..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 22. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 30

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO
THE CAROLINAS AS IT SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY ON
SHORE FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MONDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD
ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SUNNY
AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE MID 70S. MAY SEE A FEW CU
WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE PRESENT WITHIN A FEW THOUSAND FEET FROM THE
SURFACE. BY LATE MON RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS OFF SHORE WITH A DECENT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT. LOOKS LIKE SURFACE FLOW
NEVER MAKES IT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT INSTEAD REMAINS EAST TO
NORTHEAST. WITH A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH
THE PERIOD...EXPECT DEW POINT TEMPS TO RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EXPECT TEMPS EVEN HIGHER BY MON NIGHT AS DEW
POINT TEMPS HEAD UP TOWARD 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...BY TUESDAY QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE GETS
PULLED UP INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
WHILE H5 TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. BY LATE TUES
LOOKS LIKE SOME DECENT OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE PLACE AS WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE S-SE WHILE WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OUT OF THE N-NE.
THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHC OF PCP AS PCP WATER REACHES ABOVE 1.5
INCHES IN DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED
AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN BEHIND IT BY WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK TO THE SOUTH WHILE
NORTHERLY WINDS BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH WED INTO THURS. BY FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIP OFF
SHORE AND E-SE FLOW MAY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS BUT
EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN PCP. OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDS
AND PCP IN THE FORECAST FOR TUES WITH BEST SHOT OF PCP TUES NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED. THEN EXPECT SUNNY BUT COLDER WEATHER WED THROUGH
THURS.

TEMPS THROUGH TUES WILL REMAIN UP IN THE 70S...BUT WILL DROP OUT
WED INTO THURS WITH PLENTY OF CAA IN NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH
THURS. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BY FRI BACK UP AROUND 70.
COLDEST NIGHT SHOULD BE OVERNIGHT WED WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR 40 OR BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW AND CONTINUING MOSTLY VFR.

SKC SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
MVFR FOG AT CRE. AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WINDS WILL
START TO VEER TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT ONLY 5 TO 8 KT
EVERYWHERE. EVEN WITH S/SE WINDS THE COLUMN APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...SO SKC WILL BE THE RULE AGAIN
TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT THE INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP CREATE FOG BENEATH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. FOR NOW HAVE MVFR BR ONLY AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS SINCE THIS IS AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
FUTURE UPDATES WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG SUNDAY
MORNING AT LBT/FLO WITH MVFR FOG LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MORNING FOG
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVERHEAD WHILE REORIENTING ITSELF INTO A MORE
EAST/WEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY TODAY FROM THEIR PRESENT NELY DIRECTION WHILE
REMAINING QUITE LIGHT...10 KTS OR LESS...THEN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES RIGHT OVERHEAD. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLIP
FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING ONSHORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING. THEREFORE WINDS ON SUN WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR
SHORE ON SUN AFTN. SEAS WILL BE 2 FT OR LESS.

BY MON GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN TROPICAL SYSTEM IN GULF AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...PRODUCING AN INCREASING EASTERLY WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING ON SHORE WINDS SHOULD
DRIVE SEAS UP MON THROUGH EARLY TUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5 FT
IN OUTER WATERS BY TUES MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ON SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUES IN
THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING FARTHER OFF
SHORE. A STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND A MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH A STRONG NORTHERLY
SURGE. SEAS SHOULD START OUT JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON TUES BUT
WILL SOON INCREASE WELL ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUES NIGHT INTO WED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS. WNA MODEL DATA SHOWING SEAS
PEAKING WED NIGHT AROUND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. NEAR SHORE
WATERS SHOULD REMAIN MUCH LOWER NEAR 3 FT WITH MORE OF AN OFF
SHORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ032>034-039-
     046.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ099>101.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-097.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/JW

000
FXUS62 KMHX 070712
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
212 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN
NC TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY/FROSTY START
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
SECONDARY HIGH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NAM AS USUAL IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING COASTAL TROUGH LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS/PORTIONS OF THE SE COAST. WE PREFERRED THE GFS WHICH HAS A
WEAKER SYSTEM...FORECASTS LESS QPF AND PLACES THE PRECIPITATION
EMPHASIS TO THE SOUTH. TONIGHTS FORECAST LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW MOS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM
WINDS BUT FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S SO NUDGED UP LOWS TO
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.

MADE NO CHANGES TO TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. MOISTURE FROM TD IDA AND/OR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THIS SYSTEM SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH GULF
MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF IDA GET ADVECTED NORTH TO INTERACT WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM MID WEEK. ALSO INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS
FORECASTING LOW PRESSURE OFF GA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THAT SYSTEM AND SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEING SHUNTED SOUTH DUE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT (HIGHEST) AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO ALL OF THE
UNCERTAINTY BUT THEN HAVE A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...VFR/SKC THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE UNDER
LOW LEVEL INVERSION THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS THE FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM/JME
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

000
FXUS62 KRAH 070540
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT RAPIDLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...

FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY.

9 PM TEMPERATURES AT MOST RURAL SITES ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
WHILE OBSERVING SITES CLOSER TO URBAN LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 40S.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.3 INCHES)...EXCELLENT NOCTURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD
OCCUR. THUS...TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING PROBABLE IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS WHILE URBAN CENTERS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS IN THE MID
30S WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST. ASIDE FROM A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
TO REFLECT REALITY...LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.-WSS

MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW SATURDAY. THUS THE WARMTH AT
THE TOP OF THE 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
FOR SURFACE HEATING. ALTHOUGH THICKNESS RISES 15 TO 20 METERS...
ONLY ABOUT A FIVE TO SEVEN RISE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST... TO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AT GREENSBORO
APPROACHING 1380 METERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT OVER SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD PLACE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL FORECAST TO BE NO MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... ABOUT A
TWENTY-FIVE DEGREES DIURNAL DROP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

FOR MONDAY: THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FINAL DAY OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
MILD CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFFSHORE AND RIDGING
WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 71
TO 75 DEGREES. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO IDA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS DIVERGE AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SUFFER FROM RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. GENERALLY SPEAKING...A
STRONG SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE DUE TO IDA) EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
INCREASING TO CHANCE (WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES) BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
PATTERN AND SHOWS A CLOSED LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS CUTS THE LOW
OFF FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...HINTING AT A CAD EPISODE. IF THE
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THEN IS CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HOW MUCH OF IDA`S MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
PULLING THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT WILL FACTOR IN THE UNCERTAINTY BY HOLDING
OFF ON CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON
TUESDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL...ROUGHLY 61 TO 67 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -KRR

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY:
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

THE NEXT SHOT AT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS APPEARS TO
BE TUESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARD
OUR REGION. HOWEVER... THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE PULLED
THIS FAR NE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES IS STILL IN QUESTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...VINCENT/BADGETT

000
FXUS62 KILM 070525
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1225 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE VIRGINIA AND NE
NORTH CAROLINA IS PROVIDING CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ALLOWING FOR A VERY RAPID DROP IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW ANY
GUIDANCE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. LOWS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON-TRACK TO DROP
2-4 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE LOWS WHICH WILL TAKE MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. NORMALLY COLD AREAS ACROSS INLAND SE NORTH
CAROLINA COULD DROP INTO THE 25-28 RANGE BY MORNING; THE BACK ISLAND
FIRE WX OBSERVATION AT 8:30 PM SHOWED A TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S IN MOST PLACES BUT THE 00Z MHX
SOUNDING REVEALS THIS MOISTURE IS ONLY ABOUT 400-500 FEET THICK AND
SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

BELOW ARE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATES OF THE FIRST FROST AND FREEZE FOR
LOCATIONS BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS. THE FIRST FREEZE IS DEFINED AS
THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 32 DEGREES. PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS SCIENTIFIC
BUT STILL POTENTIALLY USEFUL...WE`LL USE THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 37
DEGREES AS DATE OF THE FIRST FROST.

WILMINGTON......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 18
FLORENCE........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 25. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 11
CONWAY..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 17
MYRTLE BEACH....AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 19
ELIZABETHTOWN...AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 20. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 2
LUMBERTON (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 15. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 28
WHITEVILLE......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 21. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 31
SOUTHPORT (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 8
GEORGETOWN......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 22
LAKE CITY.......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 9
MARION..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 22. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 30

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ENSURE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALL NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW
WIND SPEEDS WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WARMER TEMPS ON SAT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SAT MORNINGS TEMPERATURES.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SUN WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. FULL SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN ON
SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MOISTURE POOLING UNDER THE INVERSION
AROUND 900 MB...SO A FEW FLAT CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 3K FT. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT ON
TAP SUN NIGHT...BUT AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH THAT LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR CLIMO...MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WHAT COULD BE A
RATHER ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AT THE MID LEVELS WHILE A DISTORTED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE REMNANTS OF IDA WILL BE. LASTLY...A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSISTANCE FROM A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS MOISTURE LINGERING AND
ACTUALLY BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW WITH WEAKER SYSTEM IN
THE GULF FROM WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW AND CONTINUING MOSTLY VFR.

SKC SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
MVFR FOG AT CRE. AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WINDS WILL
START TO VEER TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT ONLY 5 TO 8 KT
EVERYWHERE. EVEN WITH S/SE WINDS THE COLUMN APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...SO SKC WILL BE THE RULE AGAIN
TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT THE INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP CREATE FOG BENEATH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. FOR NOW HAVE MVFR BR ONLY AT THE INLAND
TERMINALS SINCE THIS IS AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
FUTURE UPDATES WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG SUNDAY
MORNING AT LBT/FLO WITH MVFR FOG LIKELY ELSEWHERE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MORNING FOG
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...THERMAL ADVECTION HAS TURNED ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT LARGE AIR-TO-WATER TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE HIGHER (VIA ENHANCED
VERTICAL MIXING) THAN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT.
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT NEARSHORE AND 10-15 KT OVER THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS INDICATED.
SPECTRAL ENERGY PLOTS INDICATE THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS AROUND
8-SECONDS PERIOD AND LIKELY ORIGINATES FROM STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE
NEWFOUNDLAND COAST.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SAT WILL BECOME
MORE ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST SUN AFTERNOON ONCE WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEPS SEAS 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF THE COAST. A
STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND ANOTHER MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. REGARDING SEAS...WAVEWATCH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SEAS HOVERING JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUILDING CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY EASILY
ECLIPSING FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ032>034-039-
     046.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ017-023-024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ099>101.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ087-096-097.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...REK/JW
MARINE...ALL

000
FXUS62 KRAH 070249
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 945 PM FRIDAY...

FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY.

9 PM TEMPERATURES AT MOST RURAL SITES ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
WHILE OBSERVING SITES CLOSER TO URBAN LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 40S.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (PWAT VALUES
AROUND 0.3 INCHES)...EXCELLENT NOCTURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD
OCCUR. THUS...TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING PROBABLE IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS WHILE URBAN CENTERS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS IN THE MID
30S WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST. ASIDE FROM A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
TO REFLECT REALITY...LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.-WSS

MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW SATURDAY. THUS THE WARMTH AT
THE TOP OF THE 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
FOR SURFACE HEATING. ALTHOUGH THICKNESS RISES 15 TO 20 METERS...
ONLY ABOUT A FIVE TO SEVEN RISE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST... TO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AT GREENSBORO
APPROACHING 1380 METERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT OVER SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD PLACE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL FORECAST TO BE NO MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... ABOUT A
TWENTY-FIVE DEGREES DIURNAL DROP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

FOR MONDAY: THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FINAL DAY OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
MILD CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFFSHORE AND RIDGING
WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 71
TO 75 DEGREES. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO IDA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS DIVERGE AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SUFFER FROM RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. GENERALLY SPEAKING...A
STRONG SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE DUE TO IDA) EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
INCREASING TO CHANCE (WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES) BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
PATTERN AND SHOWS A CLOSED LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS CUTS THE LOW
OFF FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...HINTING AT A CAD EPISODE. IF THE
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THEN IS CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HOW MUCH OF IDA`S MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
PULLING THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT WILL FACTOR IN THE UNCERTAINTY BY HOLDING
OFF ON CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON
TUESDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL...ROUGHLY 61 TO 67 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -KRR

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY:
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z SAT
MORNING...MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z SUN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH CALM WINDS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND OF 7-12 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY LATE SAT MORNING / EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER/NEAR THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS/99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KMHX 070245
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
945 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE IS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM FRI...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERNIGHT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. JUST UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS...ALREADY 37 DEGREES HERE AT MHX. NEAR MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD. STICKING WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT FCST MIN TEMPS WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 DEGS BELOW MOS
GDNC. MOS WAS 3-5 DEGS TOO WARM INLAND FRI MORNING SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN GOING BELOW GDNC AGAIN TONIGHT. CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING
ALL ZONES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING PERIOD WITH GRADUAL
WARM-UP. INTIAL SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT...BUT BE
REPLACED BY SECONDARY HIGH FROM W AND N SUN-MON AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS. BASICALLY A TEMP FCST WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED. MOS
BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WENT BELOW GDNC FOR MIN TEMPS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH GULF MSTR AND REMNANTS OF IDA GET
ADVECTED NORTH TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MID WEEK. STUCK WITH
HPC SOLUTION WHICH FAVORED ECMWF...AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN CHC
RANGE FOR TUE NIGHT. DID LEAVE LINGERING 20 POPS FOR WED AND WED
NIGHT TO HEDGE FOR POSSIBLE SLOWER SYSTEM MOVEMENT. DRIER AND COOLER
THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWS LIFR VSBY RESTRICTION AT PGV LATER
TNGT...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT FROM STEAM FOG OFF THE TAR RIVER
AT THE END OF THE RUNWAY. THIS IS USUALLY NOT A SIGNIFICANT
ISSUE FOR AVIATION OPS AT PGV BUT WILL PUT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBY ARND SUNRISE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS.

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. THE NEXT FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BLO 6 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVRNGT AS
WINDS DIMINISH SO CANCELLED THE SCA A BIT EARLY.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITION WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT PASSING
WELL TO THE NORTH MAY TIGHTEN GRADIENTS ENOUGH TO BRING 10-15 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE NRN WATERS SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUE AND WED. MODELS DIVERGE
SOME ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TS IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TIMING OF CAA SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS
TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...BTC/SK

000
FXUS62 KILM 070215
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
915 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE VIRGINIA AND NE
NORTH CAROLINA IS PROVIDING CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE AREA.
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ALLOWING FOR A VERY RAPID DROP IN
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW ANY
GUIDANCE AT THE CURRENT HOUR.

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. LOWS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON-TRACK TO DROP
2-4 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE LOWS WHICH WILL TAKE MOST AREAS INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. NORMALLY COLD AREAS ACROSS INLAND SE NORTH
CAROLINA COULD DROP INTO THE 25-28 RANGE BY MORNING; THE BACK ISLAND
FIRE WX OBSERVATION AT 8:30 PM SHOWED A TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 30S IN MOST PLACES BUT THE 00Z MHX
SOUNDING REVEALS THIS MOISTURE IS ONLY ABOUT 400-500 FEET THICK AND
SHOULD HAVE NO EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

BELOW ARE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL DATES OF THE FIRST FROST AND FREEZE FOR
LOCATIONS BASED ON 1971-2000 NORMALS. THE FIRST FREEZE IS DEFINED AS
THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 32 DEGREES. PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS SCIENTIFIC
BUT STILL POTENTIALLY USEFUL...WE`LL USE THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF 37
DEGREES AS DATE OF THE FIRST FROST.

WILMINGTON......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 18
FLORENCE........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 25. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 11
CONWAY..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 2.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 17
MYRTLE BEACH....AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 19
ELIZABETHTOWN...AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 20. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 2
LUMBERTON (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 15. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 28
WHITEVILLE......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 21. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 31
SOUTHPORT (COOP)AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 8
GEORGETOWN......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: NOV 6.  FIRST FREEZE: NOV 22
LAKE CITY.......AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 24. FIRST FREEZE: NOV 9
MARION..........AVERAGE FIRST FROST: OCT 22. FIRST FREEZE: OCT 30

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ENSURE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALL NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW
WIND SPEEDS WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WARMER TEMPS ON SAT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SAT MORNINGS TEMPERATURES.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SUN WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. FULL SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN ON
SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MOISTURE POOLING UNDER THE INVERSION
AROUND 900 MB...SO A FEW FLAT CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 3K FT. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT ON
TAP SUN NIGHT...BUT AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH THAT LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR CLIMO...MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WHAT COULD BE A
RATHER ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AT THE MID LEVELS WHILE A DISTORTED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE REMNANTS OF IDA WILL BE. LASTLY...A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSISTANCE FROM A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS MOISTURE LINGERING AND
ACTUALLY BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW WITH WEAKER SYSTEM IN
THE GULF FROM WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD VEERING
WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW AND CONTINUING VFR.

SKC SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST
TOMORROW WINDS WILL START TO VEER TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AT ONLY 5 TO 8 KT EVERYWHERE. EVEN WITH S/SE WINDS THE COLUMN
APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...SO SKC WILL
BE THE RULE AGAIN TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SO MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MORNING FOG
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...THERMAL ADVECTION HAS TURNED ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT LARGE AIR-TO-WATER TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE HIGHER (VIA ENHANCED
VERTICAL MIXING) THAN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT.
NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT NEARSHORE AND 10-15 KT OVER THE OUTER PORTION
OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 1 FOOT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS AND FORECASTS INDICATED.
SPECTRAL ENERGY PLOTS INDICATE THE BULK OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS AROUND
8-SECONDS PERIOD AND LIKELY ORIGINATES FROM STRONG NW WINDS OFF THE
NEWFOUNDLAND COAST.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SAT WILL BECOME
MORE ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST SUN AFTERNOON ONCE WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEPS SEAS 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF THE COAST. A
STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND ANOTHER MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. REGARDING SEAS...WAVEWATCH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SEAS HOVERING JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUILDING CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY EASILY
ECLIPSING FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ032>034-
     039-046.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ099>101.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     097.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS61 KMHX 070207
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
907 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE IS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM FRI...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERNIGHT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED. JUST UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS...ALREADY 37 DEGREES HERE AT MHX. NEAR MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD. STICKING WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFT FCST MIN TEMPS WHICH ARE ABOUT 2-3 DEGS BELOW MOS
GDNC. MOS WAS 3-5 DEGS TOO WARM INLAND FRI MORNING SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN GOING BELOW GDNC AGAIN TONIGHT. CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING
ALL ZONES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING PERIOD WITH GRADUAL
WARM-UP. INTIAL SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT...BUT BE
REPLACED BY SECONDARY HIGH FROM W AND N SUN-MON AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS. BASICALLY A TEMP FCST WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED. MOS
BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WENT BELOW GDNC FOR MIN TEMPS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH GULF MSTR AND REMNANTS OF IDA GET
ADVECTED NORTH TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MID WEEK. STUCK WITH
HPC SOLUTION WHICH FAVORED ECMWF...AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN CHC
RANGE FOR TUE NIGHT. DID LEAVE LINGERING 20 POPS FOR WED AND WED
NIGHT TO HEDGE FOR POSSIBLE SLOWER SYSTEM MOVEMENT. DRIER AND COOLER
THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS.

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. THE NEXT FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY WIND ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE 15 KT OR
LESS. SEAS AROUND 6-7 FT CONTINUE FROM DIAMOND SHOALS N HOWEVER AND
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA HERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITION WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH MAY
TIGHTEN GRADIENTS ENOUGH TO BRING 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NRN
WATERS SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE TUE AND WED. MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS IDA IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND TIMING OF CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT. FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK

000
FXUS62 KRAH 062351
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
651 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

WILL REPLACE FROST ADVISORY WITH FREEZE WARNING SO THAT ALL CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA UNDER A WARNING TONIGHT.

BELIEVE THIRTY DEGREE DIURNAL DROPS TONIGHT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ACHIEVE IN MOST URBAN LOCATIONS. RURAL AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP TO FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...FOR A LIGHT FREEZE. LOWS
TONIGHT 30 TO 35.

MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW SATURDAY. THUS THE WARMTH AT
THE TOP OF THE 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
FOR SURFACE HEATING. ALTHOUGH THICKNESS RISES 15 TO 20 METERS...
ONLY ABOUT A FIVE TO SEVEN RISE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST... TO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AT GREENSBORO
APPROACHING 1380 METERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT OVER SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD PLACE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL FORECAST TO BE NO MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... ABOUT A
TWENTY-FIVE DEGREES DIURNAL DROP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

FOR MONDAY: THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FINAL DAY OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
MILD CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFFSHORE AND RIDGING
WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 71
TO 75 DEGREES. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO IDA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS DIVERGE AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SUFFER FROM RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. GENERALLY SPEAKING...A
STRONG SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE DUE TO IDA) EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
INCREASING TO CHANCE (WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES) BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
PATTERN AND SHOWS A CLOSED LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS CUTS THE LOW
OFF FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...HINTING AT A CAD EPISODE. IF THE
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THEN IS CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HOW MUCH OF IDA`S MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
PULLING THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT WILL FACTOR IN THE UNCERTAINTY BY HOLDING
OFF ON CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON
TUESDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL...ROUGHLY 61 TO 67 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -KRR

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY:
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z SAT
MORNING...MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE BY 00Z SUN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH CALM WINDS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SOUTHERLY WIND OF 7-12 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY LATE SAT MORNING / EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER/NEAR THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...VINCENT

000
FXUS62 KILM 062340
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
640 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OF CANADIAN ORIGIN. COOL AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE AREA COMPLIMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
THROUGH END OF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS WILL
REALIZE MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AS SHARP INVERSION
DEVELOPS IN LOWEST 1000 FT. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA WITH
MID 30S ELSEWHERE. AS IS TYPICAL ON STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHTS...TEMPS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
WARMEST AREAS...THE BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE MINIMUMS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EARLY SAT MORNING. THE COLDEST SPOTS...WHERE
SOIL TYPE ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS...WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNING AREA. ACROSS THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER AS YOU APPROACH THE
COAST...FROST WILL BE MORE PATCHY AND LIKELY NON-EXISTENT NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ENSURE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALL NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW
WIND SPEEDS WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WARMER TEMPS ON SAT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SAT MORNINGS TEMPERATURES.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SUN WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. FULL SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN ON
SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MOISTURE POOLING UNDER THE INVERSION
AROUND 900 MB...SO A FEW FLAT CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 3K FT. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT ON
TAP SUN NIGHT...BUT AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH THAT LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR CLIMO...MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WHAT COULD BE A
RATHER ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AT THE MID LEVELS WHILE A DISTORTED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE REMNANTS OF IDA WILL BE. LASTLY...A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSISTANCE FROM A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS MOISTURE LINGERING AND
ACTUALLY BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW WITH WEAKER SYSTEM IN
THE GULF FROM WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD VEERING
WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW AND CONTINUING VFR.

SKC SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CALM WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS HIGH SLIPS OFF THE COAST
TOMORROW WINDS WILL START TO VEER TO THE SOUTH BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AT ONLY 5 TO 8 KT EVERYWHERE. EVEN WITH S/SE WINDS THE COLUMN
APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...SO SKC WILL
BE THE RULE AGAIN TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW NIGHT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
SO MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MORNING FOG
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH END OF PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT...
BUT CHILLY AND DRY AIRMASS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP
ENVIRONMENT FAIRLY WELL MIXED. NNE-NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE...AND WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT
AFTER SUNSET.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SAT WILL BECOME
MORE ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST SUN AFTERNOON ONCE WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEPS SEAS 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF THE COAST. A
STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND ANOTHER MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. REGARDING SEAS...WAVEWATCH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SEAS HOVERING JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUILDING CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY EASILY
ECLIPSING FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ032>034-
     039-046.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ099>101.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     097.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS61 KMHX 062125
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
420 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE IS EXPECTED INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF THE COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NEAR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD. STICKING WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT FCST MIN TEMPS WHICH ARE
ABOUT 2-3 DEGS BELOW MOS GDNC. MOS WAS 3-5 DEGS TOO WARM INLAND FRI
MORNING SO FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN GOING BELOW GDNC AGAIN TONIGHT.
CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING ALL ZONES EXCEPT OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING PERIOD WITH GRADUAL
WARM-UP. INTIAL SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT...BUT BE
REPLACED BY SECONDARY HIGH FROM W AND N SUN-MON AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS. BASICALLY A TEMP FCST WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WX EXPECTED. MOS
BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS BUT WENT BELOW GDNC FOR MIN TEMPS SAT
NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH GULF MSTR AND REMNANTS OF IDA GET
ADVECTED NORTH TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MID WEEK. STUCK WITH
HPC SOLUTION WHICH FAVORED ECMWF...AND KEPT HIGHEST POPS IN CHC
RANGE FOR TUE NIGHT. DID LEAVE LINGERING 20 POPS FOR WED AND WED
NIGHT TO HEDGE FOR POSSIBLE SLOWER SYSTEM MOVEMENT. DRIER AND COOLER
THU-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS.

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BRINGING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. THE NEXT FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NLY WIND ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE 15 KT OR
LESS. SEAS AROUND 6-7 FT CONTINUE FROM DIAMOND SHOALS N HOWEVER AND
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA HERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRES WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING EXCELLENT
BOATING CONDITION WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH MAY
TIGHTEN GRADIENTS ENOUGH TO BRING 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NRN
WATERS SAT NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION LATE TUE AND WED. MODELS DIVERGE SOME ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TS IDA IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND TIMING OF CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT. FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK

000
FXUS62 KILM 062008
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
308 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OF CANADIAN ORIGIN. COOL AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE AREA COMPLIMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
THROUGH END OF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIRMASS AND CALM WINDS WILL
REALIZE MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL AS SHARP INVERSION
DEVELOPS IN LOWEST 1000 FT. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR AND AROUND
DAYBREAK...LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA WITH
MID 30S ELSEWHERE. AS IS TYPICAL ON STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHTS...TEMPS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
WARMEST AREAS...THE BEACH COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE MINIMUMS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EARLY SAT MORNING. THE COLDEST SPOTS...WHERE
SOIL TYPE ENHANCES RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS...WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FREEZE WARNING AREA. ACROSS THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER AS YOU APPROACH THE
COAST...FROST WILL BE MORE PATCHY AND LIKELY NON-EXISTENT NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SAT. AT THE SAME TIME UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ENSURE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALL NIGHT. DRY AIR MASS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LOW
WIND SPEEDS WILL YIELD IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WARMER TEMPS ON SAT WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN SAT MORNINGS TEMPERATURES.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON SUN WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. FULL SUN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR ONCE AGAIN ON
SUN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW MOISTURE POOLING UNDER THE INVERSION
AROUND 900 MB...SO A FEW FLAT CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AROUND 3K FT. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT ON
TAP SUN NIGHT...BUT AIR MASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED ENOUGH THAT LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR CLIMO...MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WHAT COULD BE A
RATHER ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AT THE MID LEVELS WHILE A DISTORTED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE REMNANTS OF IDA WILL BE. LASTLY...A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SOME OF THE MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED NORTHWARD WITH THE
ASSISTANCE FROM A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS MOISTURE LINGERING AND
ACTUALLY BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR NOW WITH WEAKER SYSTEM IN
THE GULF FROM WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST AT 2-3 KNOTS AS THE INVERSION SETS UP THIS EVENING. ATTM
DO NOT EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER
14Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH END OF PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT...
BUT CHILLY AND DRY AIRMASS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP
ENVIRONMENT FAIRLY WELL MIXED. NNE-NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVE...AND WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS THROUGHOUT
AFTER SUNSET.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SAT WILL BECOME
MORE ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST SUN AFTERNOON ONCE WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL KEEPS SEAS 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE AN EASTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIPPING OFF THE COAST. A
STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND ANOTHER MASSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. REGARDING SEAS...WAVEWATCH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE SEAS HOVERING JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUILDING CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY EASILY
ECLIPSING FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ032>034-
     039-046.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ099>101.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     097.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 061949
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
249 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...

WILL REPLACE FROST ADVISORY WITH FREEZE WARNING SO THAT ALL CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA UNDER A WARNING TONIGHT.

BELIEVE THIRTY DEGREE DIURNAL DROPS TONIGHT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ACHIEVE IN MOST URBAN LOCATIONS. RURAL AREAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
DROP TO FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...FOR A LIGHT FREEZE. LOWS
TONIGHT 30 TO 35.

MIXING HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW SATURDAY. THUS THE WARMTH AT
THE TOP OF THE 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR THICKNESS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
FOR SURFACE HEATING. ALTHOUGH THICKNESS RISES 15 TO 20 METERS...
ONLY ABOUT A FIVE TO SEVEN RISE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST... TO
THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT... BUT WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW... WITH LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S.

SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AT GREENSBORO
APPROACHING 1380 METERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS RISE A
BIT OVER SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD PLACE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITABLE WATERS STILL FORECAST TO BE NO MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH
BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... ABOUT A
TWENTY-FIVE DEGREES DIURNAL DROP.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...

FOR MONDAY: THIS APPEARS TO BE THE FINAL DAY OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
MILD CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL OFFSHORE AND RIDGING
WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 71
TO 75 DEGREES. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO IDA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECOMES
MORE CHALLENGING AS THE MODELS DIVERGE AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO
SUFFER FROM RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. GENERALLY SPEAKING...A
STRONG SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE DUE TO IDA) EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
INCREASING TO CHANCE (WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES) BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS THEN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
PATTERN AND SHOWS A CLOSED LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS CUTS THE LOW
OFF FURTHER SOUTH OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...HINTING AT A CAD EPISODE. IF THE
GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES...RAIN CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALSO BEING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THEN IS CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HOW MUCH OF IDA`S MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
PULLING THE MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT WILL FACTOR IN THE UNCERTAINTY BY HOLDING
OFF ON CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ON
TUESDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL...ROUGHLY 61 TO 67 FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -KRR

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY... WHEN
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...KRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 061745
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
DRY WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...

REPLACED FREEZE ADVISORY WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT. FROST
ADVISORY FOR SOUTH PARTS WILL CONTINUE AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL SHIFT MORE SOLIDLY TO
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED
WITH UPPER 50S NORTHEAST AND MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT WITH LONG
PERIODS OF CALM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS LESS THAN FOUR TENTHS
INCH. DIURNAL FALLS FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS OF THURSDAY WERE ABOUT 25
DEGREES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A SIMILAR FALL FROM FORECAST
HIGHS OF TODAY WOULD SUGGEST LOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30 IN
URBAN LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH. MORE RURAL AREAS NORTH OF WADESBORO
AND FAYETTEVILLE SHOULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING TONIGHT FOR A
LIGHT FREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE CLOSED VORTEX OFF CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES HEADING NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS
EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA SKIRTING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED
WEST TO EAST PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS... OTHERWISE THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY AND STABLE... AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT QUITE
REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WITH MUCH OF THIS
WARMING OCCURRING NEAR THE TOP OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL... 63 TO 67. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST... THE CORE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE FLOW LEADING TO RISING SURFACE DEW
POINTS. EXPECT MILDER LOWS OF 36 TO 41 WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST... ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING
LONG FETCH ONSHORE DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH A STILL DRY AND STABLE COLUMN... EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SUNDAY. THE VERY WARM AIR JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP
FINALLY GETS REALIZED AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INDICATING HIGHS TWO TO THREE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... AND WILL
HAVE HIGHS OF 70 TO 74. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... EXPECT A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF WHERE IDA (OR HER REMAINS) ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE MOVED. WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
AND POSSIBLE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY... WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE LOWS 40 TO 45 AND HIGHS OF 70 TO
75 MONDAY WITH THICKNESSES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD STILL APPEARS UNSETTLED
FOR NORTH CAROLINA WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN... FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE IMPORTANT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH VARIED DEEPENING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM... AND THESE ISSUES REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/ST LAWRENCE/ QUEBEC...
AND THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/GULF STATES/SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS PHASED AND DEEPENING TROUGH APPEARS POISED TO PULL SOME OF
IDA`S MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE MIX AS
WELL. TIMING FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/06 GEFS MEAN SUGGEST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON... REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT SHOULD
TAKE AWHILE TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE THIS INITIALLY VERY DRY
COLUMN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FORWARD... BRINGING IN LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN
EXPANDING GOOD CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE 00Z/06 OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND THE RESULTING
PASSAGE OF THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING DNVA AND SUBSIDENCE WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER... THE 18Z/05 GFS CLOSED
OFF A STRONGER LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH OVER NORTH CAROLINA...
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/04 ECMWF SOLUTION. WHILE THIS ANOMALOUS
SOLUTION APPEARS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR... WILL FACTOR IN THE
UNCERTAINTY BY HOLDING OFF ON CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CLOSED AND INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ANEW
FROM THE WEST GULF INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... PARTICULARLY LOWS... THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT... WITH NEAR TO JUST UNDER NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY.
-GIH

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST. SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY... WHEN
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ078-
083>086-088-089.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>077.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD

000
FXUS62 KILM 061724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1224 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE AREA COMPLIMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. INVERSION
HAS JUST BROKEN AND WITH THAT GUSTIEST N WINDS SHOULD BE WANING.
EVEN WITH WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE...COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT MAXIMUM TEMPS FROM CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO THE MID 20S. THIS WILL BRING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. WILL
HIGHLIGHT CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL HAMMERING OUT WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES WILL
BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. OUR PLAN IS TO HAVE THESE ISSUED BY NOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND NO WIND WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
STRONGER AND OF LONGER DURATION THAN LAST NIGHT. MINIMUMS SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS DID COME IN
AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LAST NIGHT AND THERE WERE REPORTS
OF FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A VERY CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ATOP
THE SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. THAT MEANS THAT ONCE MIXING
BEGINS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP QUICKLY
INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S BY LATE MORNING AND MID 60S BY MIDDAY.
AFTER THAT A MORE TAPERED WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70
(SOUTH) IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE WEAK ASCENT IMPLIED BY THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION THE NET SUBSIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PAIRED WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN ABSENCE OF
CLOUDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO FRIDAY THE LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WHILE SKY
REMAINS CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES A
RETURN FLOW REGIME LOCALLY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON
MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. NORTHERN BRANCH MANAGES TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...PROBABLY HANGING UP ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. COPIOUS MOISTURE CHANNELED
AHEAD OF IT UP AND DOWN THE COASTAL AREAS BUT FORCING MAY STILL BE
RATHER LACKLUSTER FOR WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF. STRONG HIGH
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TAKING
RAIN CHANCES BACK OUT OF THE FORECAST. THIS SAME HIGH WILL TURN
IDA AROUND...ALMOST A COMPLETE ABOUT- FACE...BACK INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS TEMPERED BY A QUICK RETURN OF LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING TO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT
NORTHEAST AT 2-3 KNOTS AS THE INVERSION SETS UP THIS EVENING. ATTM
DO NOT EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER
14Z WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE N THIS PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH NOON AS NORTHERLY SURGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLOWLY VEER TO THE NE TONIGHT. SEAS PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS WELL.


SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WE`RE GETTING WELL INTO THE TIME OF YEAR
IN WHICH THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY RARE. HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
TAME WINDS AND SIMILARLY BENIGN SEAS. WITH THE HIGH INITIALLY MORE
TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A
VEERING TREND BUT ALSO HIGH VARIABILITY AT TIMES AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY.
MOST OF THE HIGHER EASTERLY FETCH SEAS WILL BE CHANNELED TO OUR
SOUTH BUT THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SWELL ENERGY
YIELDING A BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEA STATE. A SLIGHT VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SWELLS TO
PENETRATE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN NECESSITATING CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES ON ACCOUNT OF 5 FOOTERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ032>034-
     039-046.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ099>101.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     097.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KMHX 061704
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1204 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A DRY AIR MASS AND WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE MAXT TEMPS A FEW DEGS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
SOME SCU WILL SKIRT ALONG OUTER BANKS...OTRW CLEAR WITH DRY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO FREEZE
WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES INLAND OF OUTER BANKS.

INITIAL HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LEADING TO A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW MOS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND WHICH
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE SE STATES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY
BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS IT COULD TAP INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HANGS ON TO RAIN CHANCES INTO
WEDNESDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE SINCE NOT ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY ON BUT RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL TODAY BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS. NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS FROM 15-20 KT
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT FOR FLYING AS SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS
ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE NLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING
BUT HAS SUBSIDED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND WATERS S
OF OCRACOKE INLET AND HAVE DROPPED THE SCA IN THESE AREAS.
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OCRACOKE INLET SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCA HERE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM/JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/SK

000
FXUS61 KMHX 061639
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1130 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A DRY AIR MASS AND WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD FROST AND
FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE MAXT TEMPS A FEW DEGS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
SOME SCU WILL SKIRL ALONG OUTER BANKS...OTRW CLEAR WITH DRY HIGH
PRES BUILDING IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO FREEZE
WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES INLAND OF OUTER BANKS.

INITIAL HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LEADING TO A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW MOS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND WHICH
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE SE STATES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY
BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS IT COULD TAP INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HANGS ON TO RAIN CHANCES INTO
WEDNESDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE SINCE NOT ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY ON BUT RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRI...NORTHERLY WINDS IN STORE FOR TODAY DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THEN DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST AND A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-20 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT FOR FLYING AS SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS
ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 5 AM FRI...WINDS NOT COMING UP TO GALE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. 00Z GFS/NAM SEEM TO BE VERIFYING...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
GALE. THEREFORE I HAVE JUST UPDATED THE MARINE ZONES TO CANCEL THE
GALE WARNING NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND PUT UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT SO HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE ADVISORY THERE. NO CHANGE TO
THE WATERS FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE LOOKOUT.

EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JME/JBM
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

000
FXUS62 KILM 061550
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1049 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE ACROSS
THE AREA COMPLIMENTS OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. INVERSION
HAS JUST BROKEN AND WITH THAT GUSTIEST N WINDS SHOULD BE WANING.
EVEN WITH WALL TO WALL SUNSHINE...COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
PREVENT MAXIMUM TEMPS FROM CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP TO THE MID 20S. THIS WILL BRING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT. WILL
HIGHLIGHT CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

STILL HAMMERING OUT WHERE FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES WILL
BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. OUR PLAN IS TO HAVE THESE ISSUED BY NOON.
CLEAR SKIES AND NO WIND WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE
STRONGER AND OF LONGER DURATION THAN LAST NIGHT. MINIMUMS SHOULD BE
NEAR IF NOT LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. SEVERAL LOCATIONS DID COME IN
AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LAST NIGHT AND THERE WERE REPORTS
OF FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A VERY CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ATOP
THE SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. THAT MEANS THAT ONCE MIXING
BEGINS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP QUICKLY
INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S BY LATE MORNING AND MID 60S BY MIDDAY.
AFTER THAT A MORE TAPERED WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70
(SOUTH) IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE WEAK ASCENT IMPLIED BY THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION THE NET SUBSIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PAIRED WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN ABSENCE OF
CLOUDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO FRIDAY THE LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WHILE SKY
REMAINS CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES A
RETURN FLOW REGIME LOCALLY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON
MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. NORTHERN BRANCH MANAGES TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...PROBABLY HANGING UP ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. COPIOUS MOISTURE CHANNELED
AHEAD OF IT UP AND DOWN THE COASTAL AREAS BUT FORCING MAY STILL BE
RATHER LACKLUSTER FOR WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF. STRONG HIGH
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TAKING
RAIN CHANCES BACK OUT OF THE FORECAST. THIS SAME HIGH WILL TURN
IDA AROUND...ALMOST A COMPLETE ABOUT- FACE...BACK INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS TEMPERED BY A QUICK RETURN OF LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES. KLTX AND KCAE DOPPLER RADAR WIND PROFILES /VWP/ INDICATE
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER 1K OF 20 TO 27 KNOTS. IN THE PAST HOUR OR
SO SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE. IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ CRITERIA IS BEING MET...THUS WILL DROP
MENTION OF LLWS FROM 12Z TAFS. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
BREAK 14Z-15Z....AND AT THAT TIME THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL TO ABATE BY 18Z.

WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHEAST AT 2-3 KNOTS AS
THE INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING. ATTM DO NOT EXPECT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE N THIS PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH NOON AS NORTHERLY SURGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY
SLOWLY VEER TO THE NE TONIGHT. SEAS PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS WELL.


SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WE`RE GETTING WELL INTO THE TIME OF YEAR
IN WHICH THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY RARE. HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
TAME WINDS AND SIMILARLY BENIGN SEAS. WITH THE HIGH INITIALLY MORE
TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A
VEERING TREND BUT ALSO HIGH VARIABILITY AT TIMES AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY.
MOST OF THE HIGHER EASTERLY FETCH SEAS WILL BE CHANNELED TO OUR
SOUTH BUT THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SWELL ENERGY
YIELDING A BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEA STATE. A SLIGHT VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SWELLS TO
PENETRATE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN NECESSITATING CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES ON ACCOUNT OF 5 FOOTERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     097.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 061437
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
937 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...

REPLACED FREEZE ADVISORY WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT. FROST
ADVISORY FOR SOUTH PARTS WILL CONTINUE AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL SHIFT MORE SOLIDLY TO
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE COAST. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACCEPTED
WITH UPPER 50S NORTHEAST AND MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT WITH LONG
PERIODS OF CALM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS LESS THAN FOUR TENTHS
INCH. DIURNAL FALLS FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS OF THURSDAY WERE ABOUT 25
DEGREES IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A SIMILAR FALL FROM FORECAST
HIGHS OF TODAY WOULD SUGGEST LOWS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30 IN
URBAN LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH. MORE RURAL AREAS NORTH OF WADESBORO
AND FAYETTEVILLE SHOULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING TONIGHT FOR A
LIGHT FREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: THE CLOSED VORTEX OFF CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES HEADING NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS
EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA SKIRTING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED
WEST TO EAST PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS... OTHERWISE THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY AND STABLE... AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT QUITE
REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WITH MUCH OF THIS
WARMING OCCURRING NEAR THE TOP OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL... 63 TO 67. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST... THE CORE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE FLOW LEADING TO RISING SURFACE DEW
POINTS. EXPECT MILDER LOWS OF 36 TO 41 WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST... ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING
LONG FETCH ONSHORE DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH A STILL DRY AND STABLE COLUMN... EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SUNDAY. THE VERY WARM AIR JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP
FINALLY GETS REALIZED AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INDICATING HIGHS TWO TO THREE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... AND WILL
HAVE HIGHS OF 70 TO 74. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... EXPECT A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF WHERE IDA (OR HER REMAINS) ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE MOVED. WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
AND POSSIBLE WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST
MONDAY... WE MAY ALSO SEE A FEW FLAT CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL HAVE LOWS 40 TO 45 AND HIGHS OF 70 TO
75 MONDAY WITH THICKNESSES STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD STILL APPEARS UNSETTLED
FOR NORTH CAROLINA WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN... FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE IMPORTANT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH VARIED DEEPENING OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM... AND THESE ISSUES REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/ST LAWRENCE/ QUEBEC...
AND THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/GULF STATES/SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS PHASED AND DEEPENING TROUGH APPEARS POISED TO PULL SOME OF
IDA`S MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW BRINGS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE MIX AS
WELL. TIMING FROM THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/06 GEFS MEAN SUGGEST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON... REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT SHOULD
TAKE AWHILE TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE THIS INITIALLY VERY DRY
COLUMN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FORWARD... BRINGING IN LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN
EXPANDING GOOD CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. THE 00Z/06 OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL
LOW OVER NEW YORK STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND THE RESULTING
PASSAGE OF THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING DNVA AND SUBSIDENCE WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER... THE 18Z/05 GFS CLOSED
OFF A STRONGER LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH OVER NORTH CAROLINA...
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/04 ECMWF SOLUTION. WHILE THIS ANOMALOUS
SOLUTION APPEARS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR... WILL FACTOR IN THE
UNCERTAINTY BY HOLDING OFF ON CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CLOSED AND INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ANEW
FROM THE WEST GULF INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES. EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES... PARTICULARLY LOWS... THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT... WITH NEAR TO JUST UNDER NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY.
-GIH

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...

SKC VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AT THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN REMAIN
OVER THE REGION BENEATH STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP
BRIEFLY INTO THE 7 TO 12 KNOT RANGE WITH PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDAY... THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM BY TONIGHT... AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY... WHEN
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ078-
083>086-088-089.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>077.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS

000
FXUS62 KILM 061221
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
721 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED TO THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS OCCASIONALLY ALLOWING SOME
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING
IN A TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF UP TO 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA.
GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS...EXPECT THE COLDEST SPOTS TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 30S.

A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES BUT TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS TO BE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHAPING UP. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID 30S WITH COLD SPOTS BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 30...PERHAPS UPPER 20S SOME SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
FOR FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN PATCHY ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
N-NW TIER COUNTIES WHERE IT SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A VERY CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ATOP
THE SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. THAT MEANS THAT ONCE MIXING
BEGINS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP QUICKLY
INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S BY LATE MORNING AND MID 60S BY MIDDAY.
AFTER THAT A MORE TAPERED WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70
(SOUTH) IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE WEAK ASCENT IMPLIED BY THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION THE NET SUBSIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PAIRED WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN ABSENCE OF
CLOUDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO FRIDAY THE LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WHILE SKY
REMAINS CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES A
RETURN FLOW REGIME LOCALLY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON
MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. NORTHERN BRANCH MANAGES TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...PROBABLY HANGING UP ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. COPIOUS MOISTURE CHANNELED
AHEAD OF IT UP AND DOWN THE COASTAL AREAS BUT FORCING MAY STILL BE
RATHER LACKLUSTER FOR WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF. STRONG HIGH
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TAKING
RAIN CHANCES BACK OUT OF THE FORECAST. THIS SAME HIGH WILL TURN
IDA AROUND...ALMOST A COMPLETE ABOUT- FACE...BACK INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS TEMPERED BY A QUICK RETURN OF LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES. KLTX AND KCAE DOPPLER RADAR WIND PROFILES /VWP/ INDICATE
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER 1K OF 20 TO 27 KNOTS. IN THE PAST HOUR OR
SO SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE. IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ CRITERIA IS BEING MET...THUS WILL DROP
MENTION OF LLWS FROM 12Z TAFS. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
BREAK 14Z-15Z....AND AT THAT TIME THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL TO ABATE BY 18Z.

WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHEAST AT 2-3 KNOTS AS
THE INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING. ATTM DO NOT EXPECT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL
WATERS THIS MORNING AS NNE SURGE GRADUALLY WANES. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER
TOWARDS THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH TONIGHT.


SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WE`RE GETTING WELL INTO THE TIME OF YEAR
IN WHICH THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY RARE. HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
TAME WINDS AND SIMILARLY BENIGN SEAS. WITH THE HIGH INITIALLY MORE
TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A
VEERING TREND BUT ALSO HIGH VARIABILITY AT TIMES AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY.
MOST OF THE HIGHER EASTERLY FETCH SEAS WILL BE CHANNELED TO OUR
SOUTH BUT THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SWELL ENERGY
YIELDING A BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEA STATE. A SLIGHT VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SWELLS TO
PENETRATE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN NECESSITATING CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES ON ACCOUNT OF 5 FOOTERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     097.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KILM 061130
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM UP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED TO THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS OCCASIONALLY ALLOWING SOME
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING
IN A TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF UP TO 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA.
GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS...EXPECT THE COLDEST SPOTS TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 30S.

A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES BUT TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS TO BE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHAPING UP. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID 30S WITH COLD SPOTS BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 30...PERHAPS UPPER 20S SOME SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
FOR FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN PATCHY ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
N-NW TIER COUNTIES WHERE IT SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A VERY CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ATOP
THE SHARP SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. THAT MEANS THAT ONCE MIXING
BEGINS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP QUICKLY
INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S BY LATE MORNING AND MID 60S BY MIDDAY.
AFTER THAT A MORE TAPERED WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70
(SOUTH) IS EXPECTED. DESPITE THE WEAK ASCENT IMPLIED BY THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION THE NET SUBSIDENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PAIRED WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN ABSENCE OF
CLOUDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO FRIDAY THE LOWS SAT NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WHILE SKY
REMAINS CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD AND
INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES A
RETURN FLOW REGIME LOCALLY. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON
MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. NORTHERN BRANCH MANAGES TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...PROBABLY HANGING UP ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. COPIOUS MOISTURE CHANNELED
AHEAD OF IT UP AND DOWN THE COASTAL AREAS BUT FORCING MAY STILL BE
RATHER LACKLUSTER FOR WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE QPF. STRONG HIGH
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TAKING
RAIN CHANCES BACK OUT OF THE FORECAST. THIS SAME HIGH WILL TURN
IDA AROUND...ALMOST A COMPLETE ABOUT- FACE...BACK INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS TEMPERED BY A QUICK RETURN OF LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR
SKIES. KLTX AND KCAE DOPPLER RADAR WIND PROFILES /VWP/ INDICATE
WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER 1K OF 20 TO 27 KNOTS. IN THE PAST HOUR OR
SO SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE. IT DOES NOT LOOK AS IF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR /LLWS/ CRITERIA IS BEING MET...THUS WILL DROP
MENTION OF LLWS FROM 12Z TAFS. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO
BREAK 14Z-15Z....AND AT THAT TIME THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. EXPECT GUST POTENTIAL TO ABATE BY 18Z.

WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHEAST AT 2-3 KNOTS AS
THE INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING. ATTM DO NOT EXPECT REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...FOG EXPECTED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE SE NC WATERS HAVE REMAINED AROUND
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KT...JUSTIFYING THE EXISTING SCA NORTH OF
LITTLE RIVER INLET. IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z. WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO MENTION SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH 15Z
SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET AS THE NE SURGE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TOWARDS THE NE TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WE`RE GETTING WELL INTO THE TIME OF YEAR
IN WHICH THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY RARE. HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
TAME WINDS AND SIMILARLY BENIGN SEAS. WITH THE HIGH INITIALLY MORE
TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A
VEERING TREND BUT ALSO HIGH VARIABILITY AT TIMES AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. A WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY.
MOST OF THE HIGHER EASTERLY FETCH SEAS WILL BE CHANNELED TO OUR
SOUTH BUT THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SWELL ENERGY
YIELDING A BUILDING SIGNIFICANT SEA STATE. A SLIGHT VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SWELLS TO
PENETRATE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN NECESSITATING CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES ON ACCOUNT OF 5 FOOTERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     097.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR

000
FXUS62 KRAH 061121
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
620 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO AND OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 259 AM...

A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL
NC COUNTIES FROM WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES WESTWARD TO ANSON COUNTY
TONIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NC.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS
MORNING WILL SETTLE EASTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
COOLER AIR WILL PLUNGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEHIND THE
POWERFUL NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LOW TODAY... AND RESULT IN AN
ATYPICAL CENTRAL NC HIGH TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION OF 56 NORTHEAST TO
63 DEGREES SOUTHWEST UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A NOTICEABLE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND BY MID-LATE MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TAKES HOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE CALM SURFACE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD... PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF THREE OR FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH... AND
CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. LOWS OF 28 TO 36 DEGREES EXPECTED... COOLEST IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TRIANGLE... AND WARMEST IN THE URBAN CENTERS. THE FORECAST LOWS ARE
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS... WHICH MAY BE
KEYING ON WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES THAT WILL NOT BE REALIZED
OVERNIGHT... AND ACCORDINGLY SEEMS TOO WARM GIVEN THE UPSTREAM 08Z
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITHIN THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND THE EXPECTED PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE CLOSED VORTEX OFF CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES HEADING NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS
EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA SKIRTING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED
WEST-TO-EAST PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS... OTHERWISE THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY AND STABLE... AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT QUITE
REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WITH MUCH OF THIS
WARMING OCCURRING NEAR THE TOP OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL... 63-67. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST... THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SURFACE FLOW LEADING TO RISING SURFACE DEW POINTS. EXPECT MILDER
LOWS OF 36-41 WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST... ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING
LONG-FETCH ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH A STILL-DRY AND STABLE COLUMN... EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SUNDAY. THE VERY WARM AIR JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP
FINALLY GETS REALIZED AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INDICATING HIGHS TWO TO THREE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... AND WILL
HAVE HIGHS OF 70-74. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
WESTERN NC... EXPECT A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF WHERE IDA (OR HER REMAINS) ARE LIKELY TO HAVE MOVED.
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND POSSIBLE WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST MONDAY... WE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW FLAT CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL
HAVE LOWS 40-45 AND HIGHS OF 70-75 MONDAY WITH THICKNESSES STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD STILL APPEARS UNSETTLED
FOR NC WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER... THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE IMPORTANT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH
VARIED DEEPENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM... AND THESE ISSUES REDUCE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/ST LAWRENCE/ QUEBEC...
AND THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/GULF STATES/SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS PHASED AND DEEPENING TROUGH APPEARS POISED TO PULL SOME OF
IDA`S MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... WHILE THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW BRINGS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE MIX AS WELL. TIMING FROM
THE LATEST OP GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AS WELL AS THE 00Z/06 GEFS MEAN
SUGGEST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT SHOULD TAKE AWHILE TO SUFFICIENTLY
SATURATE THIS INITIALLY VERY DRY COLUMN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
FORWARD... BRINGING IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN EXPANDING GOOD CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00Z/06 OP GFS AND ECMWF
CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NY STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND
THE RESULTING PASSAGE OF THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BRING DNVA AND SUBSIDENCE WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER... THE 18Z/05 GFS
CLOSED OFF A STRONGER LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH OVER NC... SIMILAR TO
THE 12Z/04 ECMWF SOLUTION. WHILE THIS ANOMALOUS SOLUTION APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR... WILL FACTOR IN THE UNCERTAINTY BY HOLDING OFF
ON CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED AND INTENSIFYING LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ANEW FROM THE WEST GULF INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... PARTICULARLY LOWS...
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH NEAR TO JUST UNDER NORMAL TEMPS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...

SKC VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AT THIS MORNING WILL
BUILD EASTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN REMAIN OVER THE
REGION BENEATH STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY INTO THE
7 TO 12 KT RANGE WITH PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS
THROUGH MIDDAY... THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CALM BY TONIGHT... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY... WHEN
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ078-
083>086-088-089.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>027-038>041-073>076.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/GIH
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS

000
FXUS62 KMHX 060958 AAA
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
458 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A DRY AIR MASS AND WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NC
TODAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION/NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE COOL
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S DESPITE WARMER 00Z MOS FORECASTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
SUNNY SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
WHICH HELP TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CREST OVER EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS LATE. THE 00Z MOS MINS WERE TOO WARM SO I USED 3 HOURLY
MOS DEWPOINTS INSTEAD FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 30-32 DEGREE
READINGS EXPECTED AND SOME ISOLATED UPPER 20S AT THE NORMALLY
COOLER RAWS SITES.

INITIAL HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LEADING TO A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW MOS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND WHICH
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE SE STATES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY
BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS IT COULD TAP INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HANGS ON TO RAIN CHANCES INTO
WEDNESDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE SINCE NOT ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY ON BUT RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRI...NORTHERLY WINDS IN STORE FOR TODAY DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THEN DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST AND A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-20 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT FOR FLYING AS SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS
ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 5 AM FRI...WINDS NOT COMING UP TO GALE AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. 00Z GFS/NAM SEEM TO BE VERIFYING...KEEPING WINDS BELOW
GALE. THEREFORE I HAVE JUST UPDATED THE MARINE ZONES TO CANCEL THE
GALE WARNING NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND PUT UP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT SO HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE ADVISORY THERE. NO CHANGE TO
THE WATERS FROM OCRACOKE TO CAPE LOOKOUT.

EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

000
FXUS62 KRAH 060801
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO AND OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 259 AM...

A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL
NC COUNTIES FROM WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES WESTWARD TO ANSON COUNTY
TONIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NC.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS
MORNING WILL SETTLE EASTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
COOLER AIR WILL PLUNGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEHIND THE
POWERFUL NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LOW TODAY... AND RESULT IN AN
ATYPICAL CENTRAL NC HIGH TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION OF 56 NORTHEAST TO
63 DEGREES SOUTHWEST UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A NOTICEABLE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND BY MID-LATE MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TAKES HOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE CALM SURFACE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD... PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF THREE OR FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH... AND
CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. LOWS OF 28 TO 36 DEGREES EXPECTED... COOLEST IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TRIANGLE... AND WARMEST IN THE URBAN CENTERS. THE FORECAST LOWS ARE
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS... WHICH MAY BE
KEYING ON WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES THAT WILL NOT BE REALIZED
OVERNIGHT... AND ACCORDINGLY SEEMS TOO WARM GIVEN THE UPSTREAM 08Z
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITHIN THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND THE EXPECTED PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE CLOSED VORTEX OFF CANADIAN
MARITIMES CONTINUES HEADING NORTHEAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS
EASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA SKIRTING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED
WEST-TO-EAST PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS... OTHERWISE THE COLUMN REMAINS DRY AND STABLE... AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RISE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT QUITE
REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WITH MUCH OF THIS
WARMING OCCURRING NEAR THE TOP OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
EXPECT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL... 63-67. AS MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST... THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SURFACE FLOW LEADING TO RISING SURFACE DEW POINTS. EXPECT MILDER
LOWS OF 36-41 WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD
AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
MOVES FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST... ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING
LONG-FETCH ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. WITH A STILL-DRY AND STABLE COLUMN... EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SUNDAY. THE VERY WARM AIR JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP
FINALLY GETS REALIZED AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INDICATING HIGHS TWO TO THREE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL... AND WILL
HAVE HIGHS OF 70-74. AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
WESTERN NC... EXPECT A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF WHERE IDA (OR HER REMAINS) ARE LIKELY TO HAVE MOVED.
WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND POSSIBLE WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST MONDAY... WE MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW FLAT CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL
HAVE LOWS 40-45 AND HIGHS OF 70-75 MONDAY WITH THICKNESSES STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY...

THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD STILL APPEARS UNSETTLED
FOR NC WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER... THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE IMPORTANT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH
VARIED DEEPENING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM... AND THESE ISSUES REDUCE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
THAT TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO/ST LAWRENCE/ QUEBEC...
AND THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/GULF STATES/SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERN END OF
THIS PHASED AND DEEPENING TROUGH APPEARS POISED TO PULL SOME OF
IDA`S MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... WHILE THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW BRINGS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE MIX AS WELL. TIMING FROM
THE LATEST OP GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AS WELL AS THE 00Z/06 GEFS MEAN
SUGGEST THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT SHOULD TAKE AWHILE TO SUFFICIENTLY
SATURATE THIS INITIALLY VERY DRY COLUMN. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
FORWARD... BRINGING IN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY THEN EXPANDING GOOD CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00Z/06 OP GFS AND ECMWF
CLOSE OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER NY STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... AND
THE RESULTING PASSAGE OF THE STRENGTHENING TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BRING DNVA AND SUBSIDENCE WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER... THE 18Z/05 GFS
CLOSED OFF A STRONGER LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH OVER NC... SIMILAR TO
THE 12Z/04 ECMWF SOLUTION. WHILE THIS ANOMALOUS SOLUTION APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR... WILL FACTOR IN THE UNCERTAINTY BY HOLDING OFF
ON CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED AND INTENSIFYING LOW
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ANEW FROM THE WEST GULF INTO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST STATES. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... PARTICULARLY LOWS...
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH NEAR TO JUST UNDER NORMAL TEMPS
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...

SKC VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AT 06Z WILL BUILD
EASTWARD INTO NC THROUGH FRIDAY... THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION
BENEATH STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY INTO THE 6 TO 10 KT
RANGE WITH PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS THROUGH
MIDDAY... THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM BY
TONIGHT... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY... WHEN
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ078-
083>086-088-089.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>027-038>041-073>076.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/GIH
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS

000
FXUS62 KRAH 060759
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 259 AM...

A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL
NC COUNTIES FROM WAYNE AND SAMPSON COUNTIES WESTWARD TO ANSON COUNTY
TONIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NC.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS THIS
MORNING WILL SETTLE EASTWARD INTO NC THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
COOLER AIR WILL PLUNGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEHIND THE
POWERFUL NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LOW TODAY... AND RESULT IN AN
ATYPICAL CENTRAL NC HIGH TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION OF 56 NORTHEAST TO
63 DEGREES SOUTHWEST UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A NOTICEABLE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND BY MID-LATE MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TAKES HOLD THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE CALM SURFACE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD... PROJECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF THREE OR FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH... AND
CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. LOWS OF 28 TO 36 DEGREES EXPECTED... COOLEST IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
TRIANGLE... AND WARMEST IN THE URBAN CENTERS. THE FORECAST LOWS ARE
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER THAN CONSENSUS MOS... WHICH MAY BE
KEYING ON WARMING H85 TEMPERATURES THAT WILL NOT BE REALIZED
OVERNIGHT... AND ACCORDINGLY SEEMS TOO WARM GIVEN THE UPSTREAM 08Z
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S WITHIN THE SURFACE
RIDGE AND THE EXPECTED PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

SUNNY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THREE TO SEVEN DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 60S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG INVERSION SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES SLIGHTLY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT... BACK
TO AROUND ONE-THIRD INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. A THIRTY DEGREE DIURNAL
FALL IS FORECAST... WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 34 TO 39
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MOSTLY CLEAR/MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COURTESY OF MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE RIDGING
WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 71
TO 76 DEGREES EACH DAY. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO TROPICAL STORM IDA.
ALSO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL
BE HOW MUCH OF IDA`S MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY. HPC DECIDED TO TREND WETTER DURING THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
AS A RESULT...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
INCREASING TO CHANCE (WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES) BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST...HOWEVER WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON TUESDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...ROUGHLY 60 TO 66 DEGREES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. -KRR

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...

SKC VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AT 06Z WILL BUILD
EASTWARD INTO NC THROUGH FRIDAY... THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION
BENEATH STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY INTO THE 6 TO 10 KT
RANGE WITH PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS THROUGH
MIDDAY... THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM BY
TONIGHT... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY... WHEN
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ078-
083>086-088-089.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>027-038>041-073>076.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS

000
FXUS62 KMHX 060726
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
226 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF A DRY AIR MASS AND WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NC
TODAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION/NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE COOL
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S DESPITE WARMER 00Z MOS FORECASTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND
SUNNY SKIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. FORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
WHICH HELP TO ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO CREST OVER EASTERN NC OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS LATE. THE 00Z MOS MINS WERE TOO WARM SO I USED 3 HOURLY
MOS DEWPOINTS INSTEAD FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 30-32 DEGREE
READINGS EXPECTED AND SOME ISOLATED UPPER 20S AT THE NORMALLY
COOLER RAWS SITES.

INITIAL HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE SATURDAY WITH A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP LEADING TO A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BELOW MOS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 30S EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND WHICH
WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY AND THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM FRIDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE SE STATES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY
BREAK DOWN TUESDAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC. NOT SURE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS IT COULD TAP INTO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IDA. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CROSS THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HANGS ON TO RAIN CHANCES INTO
WEDNESDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE SINCE NOT ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY ON BUT RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRI...NORTHERLY WINDS IN STORE FOR TODAY DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING RAPIDLY EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THEN DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST AND A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL BE 10-20 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT FOR FLYING AS SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS
ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 145 AM FRI...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE SHORT-TERM. 00Z
GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT LOOK SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE FOR TODAY.
TIMING OF TODAYS SCA/GALE EVENT STILL LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES IN
HEADLINES EITHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH
CENTERED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     135-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

000
FXUS62 KILM 060711
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
211 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARMUP BEGINS ON SUNDAY AND WILL LAST WELL INTO THE WEEK. WET
WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED TO THE WEST
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS OCCASIONALLY ALLOWING SOME
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS RESULTING
IN A TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF UP TO 10-15 DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA.
GIVEN THE DEWPOINTS...EXPECT THE COLDEST SPOTS TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE MID 30S.

A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES BUT TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW CLIMO. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE MODEL TIME-HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS...APPEARS TO BE PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHAPING UP. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID 30S WITH COLD SPOTS BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 30...PERHAPS UPPER 20S SOME SPOTS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
FOR FROST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN PATCHY ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...BUT WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE
N-NW TIER COUNTIES WHERE IT SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...
A VERY CHILLY START TO THE PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WARM
ADVECTION WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ATOP THE SHARP SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION. THAT MEANS THAT ONCE MIXING BEGINS A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP QUICKLY INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S BY
LATE MORNING AND MID 60S BY MIDDAY. AFTER THAT A MORE TAPERED
WARMING TREND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70 (SOUTH) IS EXPECTED. DESPITE
THE WEAK ASCENT IMPLIED BY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION THE NET SUBSIDENCE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE PAIRED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING AN ABSENCE OF CLOUDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND RETURN OF LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH A WARMER START COMPARED TO FRIDAY THE LOWS
SAT NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S WHILE
SKY REMAINS CLEAR.


&&

.LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY AS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES A RETURN FLOW REGIME LOCALLY.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
TURNS TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. NORTHERN
BRANCH MANAGES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
TUESDAY...PROBABLY HANGING UP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. COPIOUS MOISTURE CHANNELED AHEAD OF IT UP AND DOWN THE COASTAL
AREAS BUT FORCING MAY STILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER FOR WIDESPREAD
APPRECIABLE QPF. STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TAKING RAIN CHANCES BACK OUT OF THE FORECAST.
THIS SAME HIGH WILL TURN IDA AROUND...ALMOST A COMPLETE ABOUT-
FACE...BACK INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS TEMPERED
BY A QUICK RETURN OF LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE.

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 5 KT EVERYWHERE AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE WELL BELOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO FOG WILL
NOT DEVELOP. INTERESTING FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL
LLWS WITH A SURGE THAT IS MODELED TO COME THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE RUC AND NAM BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SURGE...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT OR
GREATER AT JUST ABOVE 1000 FEET AGL. WITH A STRONG NOCTURNAL
INVERSION IN PLACE THESE SPEEDS WILL BE UNABLE TO MIX DOWN...AND THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...KEEPING SURFACE WINDS AT 5 KT
OR LESS. THIS WOULD MEAN 30 KT OF SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWEST 1200 FEET
OR SO BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z...HENCE THE NECESSITY FOR THE LLWS IN THE
TAFS. THE SHEAR WILL BE PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH LESS THAN 30
DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE...SO LLWS WILL BE DUE ONLY TO THE
SPEED GRADIENT. BY TOMORROW MORNING LLWS WILL DISSIPATE AND ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST OFFSHORE. BELIEVE TOMORROW WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH N/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 16 KT AT TIMES IN THE
AFTN. VFR WILL BE THE CATEGORY ALL DAY TOMORROW UNDER SKC. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO CALM WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER 22Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF FOG
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...WINDS OVER THE SE NC WATERS HAVE REMAINED AROUND
20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KT...JUSTIFYING THE EXISTING SCA NORTH OF
LITTLE RIVER INLET. IT WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z. WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO MENTION SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH 15Z
SOUTH OF MURRELLS INLET AS THE NE SURGE WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER TOWARDS THE NE TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NW. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


SHORT TERM/SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...
EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
WE`RE GETTING WELL INTO THE TIME OF YEAR IN WHICH THAT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY RARE. HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TAME WINDS AND SIMILARLY
BENIGN SEAS. WITH THE HIGH INITIALLY MORE TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE
A PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A VEERING TREND BUT ALSO HIGH
VARIABILITY AT TIMES AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY LIKELY
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM/MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY BRINGING A BROAD
AREA OF FAIRLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY. MOST OF THE HIGHER
EASTERLY FETCH SEAS WILL BE CHANNELED TO OUR SOUTH BUT THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SWELL ENERGY YIELDING A BUILDING
SIGNIFICANT SEA STATE. A SLIGHT VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON
TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SWELLS TO PENETRATE FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN NECESSITATING CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ON ACCOUNT
OF 5 FOOTERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SCZ017-023-
     024.

NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NCZ087-096-
     097.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...JDW

000
FXUS62 KRAH 060614
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
114 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 935 PM...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM CENTERS AROUND WHEN/IF NEAR
SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE...LEADING TO AREAS OF FROST BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ASOS SITES ACROSS CENTRAL NC REPORTING 3-5KTS OF WIND AT
02Z WHICH IS NOT TOO SURPRISING AS SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO REGION. 3 HR PRESSURES OF THE ORDER 1.5-2 MB OBSERVED SINCE
SUNSET. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AXIS OF SURFACE
RIDGE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. DUE TO
PROXIMITY...NW PIEDMONT/TRIAD STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
WIDESPREAD FROST BY FRIDAY MORNING. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...FROST FORMATION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS SURFACE WINDS MAY
REMAIN UP TILL JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. BELIEVE FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE WORST CASE
SCENARIO AND WITHIN REACH IF SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE BY 07Z-08Z. -WSS

A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. COOLEST THICKNESSES IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND THERE... NEAR 57 EXTREME
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 64 SOUTHWEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

GOOD WARM ADVECTION ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DECOUPLED FROM THE
SURFACE... WITH THAT WARMTH NOT BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA. A
TWENTY-FIVE DEGREE OR MORE DIURNAL FALL IN TEMPERATURES TO SUNRISE
SATURDAY IS CERTAINLY WITHIN REACH. LOWS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OF FREEZING.

SUNNY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES THREE TO SEVEN DEGREES WARMER THAN
FRIDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID 60S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG INVERSION SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES SLIGHTLY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT... BACK
TO AROUND ONE-THIRD INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. A THIRTY DEGREE DIURNAL
FALL IS FORECAST... WITH MOST LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 34 TO 39
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM...

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MOSTLY CLEAR/MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME COURTESY OF MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE RIDGING
WESTWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 71
TO 76 DEGREES EACH DAY. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THIS OCCURS...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO TROPICAL STORM IDA.
ALSO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AND CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING CLOUDS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL
BE HOW MUCH OF IDA`S MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY. HPC DECIDED TO TREND WETTER DURING THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
AS A RESULT...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
INCREASING TO CHANCE (WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES) BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST...HOWEVER WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS ON TUESDAY...GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...ROUGHLY 60 TO 66 DEGREES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. -KRR

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 110 AM FRIDAY...

SKC VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AT 06Z WILL BUILD
EASTWARD INTO NC THROUGH FRIDAY... THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION
BENEATH STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP BRIEFLY INTO THE 6 TO 10 KT
RANGE WITH PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 15 KTS THROUGH
MIDDAY... THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND CALM BY
TONIGHT... AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY... WHEN
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>027-038>041-073>076.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS