000
FXUS63 KBIS 082141
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
220 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL USE A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.

CURRENTLY...AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE NOW THE RULE ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MONTANA WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. WITH DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT. GREATEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. STILL
THINK WE WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE MIX OUT. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE A
LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO LAST MUCH
PAST SUNDOWN AS WE DE-COUPLE. OTHERWISE A NICE EARLY NOVEMBER DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR EAST...WHICH SHOULD REBOUND NICELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM...IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND
WE TRANSITION TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

WITH A STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADING OVER THE
REGION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RESULT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED
TODAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HANDLING THE MOVEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...WILL USE A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH AND WILL FORECAST
BASED ON AVERAGED OVERALL TROUGH MOVEMENT.  USING THIS APPROACH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...OR RAIN AND SNOW.  WILL DROP PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA AS THE TROUGH
EXITS.  SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT WITH LACK
OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT...THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A
PROBLEM AND FOR NOW WILL TREND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WARM ON
THURSDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AREA RADARS INDICATE SOME
MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITY.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
AVIATION/LONG TERM...TSW

000
FXUS63 KBIS 082020
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
220 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL USE A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.

CURRENTLY...AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL JET IS PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE NOW THE RULE ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MONTANA WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. WITH DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT. GREATEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. STILL
THINK WE WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE MIX OUT. UPSTREAM WINDS ARE A
LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO LAST MUCH
PAST SUNDOWN AS WE DE-COUPLE. OTHERWISE A NICE EARLY NOVEMBER DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER ALL BUT THE
FAR EAST...WHICH SHOULD REBOUND NICELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF IN THE SHORT TERM...IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY AND
WE TRANSITION TO A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

WITH A STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADING OVER THE
REGION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RESULT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED
TODAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND. WILL
STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. STILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST HANDLING THE MOVEMENT AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...WILL USE A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH AND WILL FORECAST
BASED ON AVERAGED OVERALL TROUGH MOVEMENT.  USING THIS APPROACH WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE FORM
OF RAIN...OR RAIN AND SNOW.  WILL DROP PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA AS THE TROUGH
EXITS.  SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY...BUT WITH LACK
OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT...THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A
PROBLEM AND FOR NOW WILL TREND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WARM ON
THURSDAY WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. THE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE AREA RADARS INDICATE SOME
MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITY.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
AVIATION/LONG TERM...DC/KS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 082003
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
203 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUE NIGHT/WED
BEING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES. PREFER THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION
THIS TIME AROUND.

TONIGHT...TOUGH GOING FOR FIGURING OUT THE EXTENT/AMOUNTS OF PCPN
TODAY. MOST OF THE ECHOES HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA (AS
EXPECTED)...BUT THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SMALL BANDS THAT HAVE
PRODUCED SOME LIGHT PCPN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 (WHERE THE
CUTOFF WAS THOUGHT TO BE). THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS FALLING IN SOME AREAS LIKE KPKD...WHERE 0.06 FELL SO FAR.
NOW THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD STILL WORK INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN PRIOR TO 00Z MON. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS THAT
BROUGHT THIS PCPN IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF QUICKLY MOVING TO THE
EAST. THEREFORE THINK ANY REMAINING LIGHT PCPN WILL BE OVER BY 00Z
MON. EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH PASSAGE THAT
WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER
AIR AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL
GO WITH COOLEST TEMPS IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT.

MON-WED...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE FA ON MONDAY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH NEARLY LIGHT SFC WINDS AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
PRETTY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE KBDE TO KPKD REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES. STAYED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS THESE AREAS ALWAYS
TEND TO PIT OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN SOME BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
SOUTH/SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY UP TUE NIGHT KEEPING TEMPS
ON THE MILD SIDE. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW MORE LIGHT PCPN
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MN LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...SO
WENT AHEAD AND ADDED IN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THERE IS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION OVER THAT AREA COINCIDENT
WITH AN INCREASING UPPER JET. SOME SFC CONVERGENCE ALSO THERE IN
THE FORM OF A TROUGH/COLD FRONT. ENOUGH PARAMETERS TO WARRANT A
LOW MENTION FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM [WED NIGHT SUN]...
BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND EARLIER 00Z VERSIONS OF
GFS/ECMWF IN THAT THE FORMER CONTAINS A POTENT SYSTEM WITH A
BOWLING BALL CUT OFF OVER MINNESOTA THROUGH DAY 7/SUN. THE OTHERS
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED THIS COMPLEX INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
THIS 12Z GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE ODD ONE OUT WHEN COMPARED WITH
GEM/ECMWF AND WILL BE REJECTED AT THIS TIME...KEEPING SUN POP
FREE. FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7 WE`RE SIDING WITH ECMWF WHICH PORTRAYS
A BOUNDARY MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN ROCKIES SPREADING PCPN OVER AREA
BY THUR AFTERNOON...WITH A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING PCPN
THROUGH FRI. THERMAL FIELDS TO INCLUDE THICKNESSES AND 925/850
TEMPS POINT TOWARD A RAIN EVENT...PERHAPS WITH A BIT OF OVERNIGHT
WINTRY MIX. FEEL THAT SAT MAY BE DRIER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED
BUT WITH ALL OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME WILL
LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MENTION OF VCSH AT KBJI EARLY IN TAF PERIOD AS AREA OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN SWINGS FROM NE SOUTH DAKOTA/SE NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. FEW RW COULD CLIP KFAR BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE VFR WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AT ALL
LOCATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON/WJB

000
FXUS63 KFGF 081546 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING BUT WILL MAKE A FEW
MODIFICATIONS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. PRETTY THICK MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST FA...AND WILL PROBABLY
BE THAT WAY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE SOME DECREASE BY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE THICK CLOUDS IN PLACE...TEMPS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RISING TOO MUCH WITH THE RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE WILL LOWER HIGHS JUST A BIT...
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE KPKD AREA WHERE TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S NOW. WILL LEAVE THE SPRINKLES IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
SO FAR HAVE ONLY SEEN SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN REPORTED AT A FEW
STATIONS ON OUR EXTREME SOUTH/SE PERIPHERY.

&&

.AVIATION...
STILL HAVE MID LEVEL CEILINGS MOVING THRU ALL THE TAF SITES...WITH
ONLY KDVL ON THE FRINGE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH LOWERING TO WHAT IS
OUT THERE RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT FAIRLY LIGHT SFC WINDS
AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE AT KFAR/KBJI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

SHORT TERM [TODAY - TUE NIGHT]...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING THE CHANCES AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...IN WHICH
MODELS HAVE FINALLY REACHED SOME AGREEMENT. LEANED ON THE 06Z
NAM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GFS SEEMED TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE MOST. PASSING MID LEVEL VORTICITY THROUGH THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HELP AID THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUCH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...THINK ONLY
SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...DOWNPLAYED ANY
PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE VALLEY MONDAY...AND
HELP KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY....WITH MIXING UP TO ABOUT 940 MB.
THE WINDS ALOFT AT 925 MB SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 KNOTS BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT FULLY TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY ALSO
LOOKS RATHER DRY...PARTLY DUE TO THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
THE EXPECTED SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

LONG TERM [WED - THU]...

THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THURSDAY FOR A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX ALL INDICATE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE VALLEY
AROUND THE SAME TIME. ALL THE MODELS HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHERN VALLEY
AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION. AFTER DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
50S...THE PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE 40S. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS...MAINLY SOUTHERLY TODAY AND BECOMING WESTERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 080932
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
332 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM [TODAY - TUE NIGHT]...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING THE CHANCES AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...IN WHICH
MODELS HAVE FINALLY REACHED SOME AGREEMENT. LEANED ON THE 06Z
NAM...MAINLY BECAUSE THE GFS SEEMED TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TODAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE MOST. PASSING MID LEVEL VORTICITY THROUGH THIS AREA WILL ALSO
HELP AID THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...BECAUSE SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUCH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...THINK ONLY
SPRINKLES ARE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...DOWNPLAYED ANY
PRECIPITATION. DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE VALLEY MONDAY...AND
HELP KEEP THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY....WITH MIXING UP TO ABOUT 940 MB.
THE WINDS ALOFT AT 925 MB SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 KNOTS BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT FULLY TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE...WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY ALSO
LOOKS RATHER DRY...PARTLY DUE TO THE MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
THE EXPECTED SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM [WED - THU]...

THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THURSDAY FOR A
PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/DGEX ALL INDICATE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE VALLEY
AROUND THE SAME TIME. ALL THE MODELS HIGHLIGHT THE NORTHERN VALLEY
AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR
PRECIPITATION. AFTER DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
50S...THE PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE 40S. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS...MAINLY SOUTHERLY TODAY AND BECOMING WESTERLY TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z MON. A BKN TO OVC VFR
CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. FAR AND BJI
COULD SEE PERIODIC SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. THE MAIN POINT IS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
GROCHOCINSKI

000
FXUS63 KBIS 080914
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
313 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL AGAIN USE A GENERAL
MODEL BLEND.

CURRENTLY...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A 110KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS. AN EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH EVIDENT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
EJECTING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...UNDERNEATH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK.
SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHWEST ND EAST-NORTHEAST OVER MY SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THUS FAR NO PRECIPITATION REPORTS WITH
BKN-OVC CIG HEIGHTS 10-14K FEET AGL. THIS IS DUE TO A VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE FROM THE SFC UP TO THE 750MB LEVEL.

THE EMBEDDED S/WV WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDING WITH A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ND. FAVORABLE UPPER JET
DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z TODAY AS WELL...HOWEVER IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW 750MB PERSISTING. DESPITE THIS DRY
LAYER...WILL GO WITH ISOLD SPRINKLES MAINLY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO SATURDAY DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS...STILL MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH TWO MORE EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGHS PUSHING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
WEAK CAA/HEIGHT FALLS TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WAA QUICKLY
RETURNS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WEST AND CENTRAL AS THE SFC HIGH
PUSHES EAST RESULTING IN WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. BEST RETURN
FLOW AND WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOULD SEE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF
MY WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUN.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OF LATE BUT SOME
BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH NORTH DAKOTA IN THE MIDDLE. A TROUGH IS MOVING ONTO
THE WEST COAST OF THE US WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO OUR
SOUTH. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FLOW PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY USHERING IN COOLER BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

ANOTHER STRONGER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITIONS OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH
HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THE 00 UTC ECMWF TRACKS THE
SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, THIS PLACES THE REGION IN THE COLD AIR AND WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION REGIONS OF THE CYCLONE. THE 00 UTC GFS IS MUCH FARTHER
TO THE NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND BRINGS LESS
PRECIPITATION TO NORTH DAKOTA. BOTH MODELS DRAW COOLER SOUTHWARD
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN
IDAHO AND INTO WYOMING THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY 18Z...THEN INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z MON. IN DOING
SO CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT. SOME
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. AS THE DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT SKIES WILL CLEAR
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SLATED FOR MONDAY.

&&



.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
AVIATION/LONG TERM...DC/KS

000
FXUS63 KFGF 080122
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH THE FA AND RAPID DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FALLS AFTER
SUNSET...HAVE DECIDED TO BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN A FEW MORE
DEGREES. COORD WITH DLH AND MPX ON THIS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT-BKN CIRROSTRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. HAVE MADE A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS. 00Z BIS
AND ABR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 700
MB. THUS...ANY CHANCE OF PCPN MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE BEFORE 12Z
VERY LOW IN KEEPING WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 13Z ON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
BRAMER

000
FXUS63 KBIS 072155
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS ISOLATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WITH CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES. WILL USE A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA...PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. STRONGER GRADIENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. ONLY CLOUDINESS IN THE CWA IS
SOME JET INDUCED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WEST IN AREA OF PVA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

EXPECT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AND BY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF ENHANCED
LIFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINES WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE STRONG UPPER JET...CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE. THE PROBLEM WILL BE
A LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. BOTH NAM AND GFS BURF
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW 750 MB. THE GFS...ECMWF
AND UKMET DO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF WHILE THE NAM AND GEM ARE DRY.
THE 15Z SREF IS SHOWING SOME 20 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF >.01 INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS IS A BIT LESS THAN THE 09Z RUN. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH REALLY NO ADJUSTMENT TO PLACEMENT (MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94). PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID THIS EVENING BUT
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICK TEMPERATURES DROP OFF...THERE MAY BE SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ADD MENTION OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WE
REMAIN DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES THE
AREA. A SLIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MAYBE
A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER JET...BUT THIS
WOULD BE WAY TO EARLY TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LITTLE
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH LOWS OF 25 TO 35.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE THE TROUGH SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH TILTED WHICH
SEEMS TO SPLIT THE MAIN DYNAMICS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WITH THIS BROAD TREND WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF PRECIP UNTIL
FRIDAY...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...ENDING ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT SHOULD COOL TO 35 TO 45 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AS PER THE DISCUSSION ABOVE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 00Z AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AFTER 06Z AFFECTING KDIK AND KBIS. AS
TEMPS DROP ANY PRECIP AT KDIK COULD BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL ND...KBIS TO
KJMS...AFTER 12Z BUT DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
RAIN. GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD DROP OFF
DURING THE EVENING...AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO WEST 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON SUNDAY...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...MINOT AND WILLISTON MIX OUT TO 800 AND 750 MB RESPECTIVELY
ON GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILLISTON ESPECIALLY WOULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THIS AREA ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS THOSE OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. ALSO THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MEDIUM CATEGORY...POSSIBLY THE LOW END OF THE
HIGH CATEGORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE POSTED THIS AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
AVIATION/LONG TERM...TSW

000
FXUS63 KFGF 072007
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
207 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...
OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY. NO REAL
MODEL PREFERENCE AGAIN TODAY...AS THERE IS NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON
WHERE/IF ANY PCPN WILL FALL ON SUNDAY.

TONIGHT...SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN
FA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER JET WHICH LIES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...AND EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST/SW FA LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY WEST WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN SOME VERY
DRY AIR AT THE SFC...WITH MOST SITES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR
DEW POINT VALUES. EXPECT THE GUSTY WEST WINDS TO SLOWLY RELAX AND
SHIFT A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...BECOMING PRETTY LIGHT BY
SUNDAY MORNING IN A LOT OF AREAS. WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER
MOST OF THE FA...TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

SUN-TUE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. DO NOT SEE A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR PCPN
WITH THIS WAVE...BUT THE UPPER JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA THRU THE
DAY. AT THE SFC A WEAK LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH
AND SE OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK/NEARLY LIGHT SFC WIND FLOW OVER THE
FA. MODELS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARD TO PCPN
PLACEMENT BUT DO AGREE ON THE LIGHT AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED
IN SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA AND WILL STICK
WITH THAT FOR NOW. NAM/GEM REGIONAL/ECMWF SHOW A LITTLE PCPN IN
THIS AREA WHILE THE GFS/UK HAVE A MUCH LARGER AREA DEPICTED AND
ALSO ARE FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES STILL EXPECTING A
SFC HIGH FOR MONDAY AND THEN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
(STRONGER SOUTH WINDS) FOR TUE. TEMPS LOOK TO STAY RELATIVELY
MILD.

.LONG TERM [WED-SAT]...
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL. ON THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSES THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. A SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA
BRINGING A SCHC OF PRECIP WITH HIGH PRES SETTLING IN BY FRI. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH LATE FRI INTO SAT BRINGING A
BETTER CHC FOR PRECIP...POSSIBLY A MIXTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL..ESPECIALLY THROUGH THU BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL
NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLR THIS AFTN AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL CONT TO BE
WESTERLY AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS AT TIMES 25 TO 30 KTS. EXPECT
WINDS TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND TURN MORE SSWLY TOWARD SUNSET INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID LVL CLOUDS ENTERING SRN ND AS SEEN ON VIS
IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON/FRAZIER

000
FXUS63 KFGF 071618 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1018 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH GOING ON ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY...STARTING OUT THE
MORNING WITH ABSOLUTELY CLEAR SKIES. THERE ARE SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE WHICH MAY GET
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN
SHOULD HAVE NEARLY FULL SUN. LOOKING AT GUSTY WEST WINDS THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION
LATE...AND DYING DOWN A BIT. STARTING THE DAY ABOUT 5F WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT LOOKING AT FAIRLY NEUTRAL 850MB TEMP ADVECTION.
WITH THE SUN AND WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT...ALL SITES SHOULD BE
ABLE TO CLIMB UP INTO THE 50S DESPITE LOW LEVEL TEMPS BEING COLDER
THAN FRIDAY. ALL THESE ELEMENTS ARE COVERED WELL IN THE GOING
FORECAST...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH SOME MID LVL CLOUDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AFTER 20Z. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WITH A
RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTS AOA 25 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY. WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE MOVING TO OUR NORTH THRU MANITOBA AND INTO NW ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE IN UP IN NRN MANITOBA. SFC
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW HAS PUSHED THRU ALL OF THE FCST AREA AT
09Z WITH OBS INDICATING THE WEST WIND SHIFT EAST OF INL-FOZ-GPZ
LINE. WARMING OCCURS WEST OF THE TROUGH AS WEST WINDS MIX DOWN
SOME OF THE VERY WARM AIR IN THE 950-925 MB LAYER JUST BELOW THE
INVERSION. TRICKY WITH TEMPS TODAY...850 MB TEMPS CRASH FROM
+16-18C AT 00Z SAT TO +2 TO +4 BY THIS AFTN. 925 MB TEMPS ONLY
FALL ABOUT 2-4C HOWEVER AND INVERSION IS SHOWN ON SOUNDINGS TO
HOLD AROUND THE 950-925 MB LAYER TODAY. LOOKS LIKE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MIXED UP TO THE 950-925 MB INVERSION LAYER AND BRINGING THOSE
TEMPS DOWN WILL YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS. THIS
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME TEMPS AS ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR FAR WRN FCST
AREA AND INTO CNTRTL ND WHERE THEY WERE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE VERY WARM TEMPS HIGHER UP AND GET INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON FRIDAY.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SCOOT EAST THRU SRN ND TODAY
OTHERWISE VERY SUNNY WITH HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS.

NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKY INTO SRN OREGON ATTM AND THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL RACE EAST THRU SRN ND LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND INTO MN SUNDAY AFTN. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORT WAVE AND MODELS HAVE NOW GONE BACK TO SHOWING A LITTLE LIGHT
PCPN WITH THIS WAVE ON SUNDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. AFTER COORD
DID THROW IN SOME LOW POPS SE ND/WCNTRL MN FOR THIS WAVE SUNDAY.

A LITTLE COOLER MON-TUES-WED PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT
WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NRN MN EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE. NO PCPN WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND SUNNY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SFC HIGH. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LONG TERM...
GEM/ECMWF/00Z GFS SHOW WK SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVING THRU AREA
THURSDAY TIME PD WITH CHC OF LIGHT RAIN. CURRENT FCST ONLY HAS
MENTION IN PARTS OF MN AND DRY IN ERN ND. THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-
VISITED BY DAYSHIFT. A BIT STRONGER SYSTEM PSBL SAT-SUN PERIOD BUT
QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH ECMWF STRONGER WHILE GFS WEAKER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON

000
FXUS63 KFGF 070951
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
351 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY. WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE MOVING TO OUR NORTH THRU MANITOBA AND INTO NW ONTARIO EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE IN UP IN NRN MANITOBA. SFC
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW HAS PUSHED THRU ALL OF THE FCST AREA AT
09Z WITH OBS INDICATING THE WEST WIND SHIFT EAST OF INL-FOZ-GPZ
LINE. WARMING OCCURS WEST OF THE TROUGH AS WEST WINDS MIX DOWN
SOME OF THE VERY WARM AIR IN THE 950-925 MB LAYER JUST BELOW THE
INVERSION. TRICKY WITH TEMPS TODAY...850 MB TEMPS CRASH FROM
+16-18C AT 00Z SAT TO +2 TO +4 BY THIS AFTN. 925 MB TEMPS ONLY
FALL ABOUT 2-4C HOWEVER AND INVERSION IS SHOWN ON SOUNDINGS TO
HOLD AROUND THE 950-925 MB LAYER TODAY. LOOKS LIKE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MIXED UP TO THE 950-925 MB INVERSION LAYER AND BRINGING THOSE
TEMPS DOWN WILL YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS. THIS
WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME TEMPS AS ON FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR FAR WRN FCST
AREA AND INTO CNTRTL ND WHERE THEY WERE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE VERY WARM TEMPS HIGHER UP AND GET INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ON FRIDAY.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SCOOT EAST THRU SRN ND TODAY
OTHERWISE VERY SUNNY WITH HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS.

NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING QUICKY INTO SRN OREGON ATTM AND THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL RACE EAST THRU SRN ND LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND INTO MN SUNDAY AFTN. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORT WAVE AND MODELS HAVE NOW GONE BACK TO SHOWING A LITTLE LIGHT
PCPN WITH THIS WAVE ON SUNDAY AS IT PASSES THROUGH. AFTER COORD
DID THROW IN SOME LOW POPS SE ND/WCNTRL MN FOR THIS WAVE SUNDAY.

A LITTLE COOLER MON-TUES-WED PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT
WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NRN MN EARLY MONDAY FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE. NO PCPN WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND SUNNY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH SFC HIGH. TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...
GEM/ECMWF/00Z GFS SHOW WK SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW MOVING THRU AREA
THURSDAY TIME PD WITH CHC OF LIGHT RAIN. CURRENT FCST ONLY HAS
MENTION IN PARTS OF MN AND DRY IN ERN ND. THIS WILL NEED TO BE RE-
VISITED BY DAYSHIFT. A BIT STRONGER SYSTEM PSBL SAT-SUN PERIOD BUT
QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH ECMWF STRONGER WHILE GFS WEAKER.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS TODAY WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 KT
RANGE TODAY. SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO SRN ND TODAY BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. NO EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE

000
FXUS63 KBIS 070929
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL USE A GENERAL MODEL BLEND.

CURRENTLY...A S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA...AHEAD OF 100KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDING
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...NOW OVER WESTERN MN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FROPA BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS (15-30 MPH)
CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND...MAINLY ACROSS MY NORTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS OCCURRING WITH
850-700MB WINDS 45-50KTS (VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KMBX INDICATES
50-65KT WINDS 3-4K FEET OFF THE SFC). NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL
PREVENT THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH
THESE MID LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THIS SAT
MORNING.

COOLER TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONT...BUT STILL MILD WITH
HIGHS FORECAST INTO THE 50S WITH THE COLDER AIR REMAINING IN CANADA
NORTH OF THE UPPER JET. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE/REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND AROUND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AREA THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WHERE PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE AND
WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS (25-30KTS) WILL RESIDE.

MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSE SLIDING EAST-NORTHEAST
INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...COINCIDING WITH A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY OVER
MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH SFC AND MID LEVEL FORCING
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE BELOW
750MB. NONETHELESS WILL THROW IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SOUTH
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAYTIME AM HOURS OF SUNDAY OVER MY SOUTHEAST.

ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND LITTLE IF ANY SFC FORCING. A S/WV RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCED SHOT OF WAA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE DEGREE OF OUR RECORD
SETTING TEMPS ON FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE
LONG TERM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME AGREEMENT DOES EXIST
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN A 500 HPA RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS RAISING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE
DAY. LONG TERM MODEL AGREEMENT BEGINS TO ERODE VERY QUICKLY AFTER
THAT WITH A TROUGH THAT SETS UP IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
PREDICTABILITY OF ANY DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS TROUGH REMAINS VERY
LOW THIS FAR OUT MAKING TIMING DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS SATURDAY MORNING INCLUDE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH MINNESOTA WITH A BROAD NORTHWEST ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
MONTANA...NORTH DAKOTA ND THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. ONE
CONCERN WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR THE MORNING HOURS. 1 TO 3
THOUSAND MSL WINDS LIKELY TO BE 35 TO 45 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND...ESPECIALLY NORTH. AFTER THE MORNING HOURS THE WINDS
MIX OUT AND DIMINISH. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME WIND SHEAR IN THE
ISN-MOT-BIS TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL RANGE FROM THE MEDIUM TO HIGH
CATEGORY WEST AND CENTRAL TODAY. SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL STAY LOW IN
THE 20S...HOWEVER DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER FROM
YESTERDAY PUTTING DAYTIME MIN RH VALUES MAINLY 25-40 PERCENT WEST
AND CENTRAL. SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH WIND MAGNITUDES ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH SPC (STORM PREDICTION CENTER) HAS WESTERN ND IN THE `SEE
TEXT` FOR FIRE WEATHER...LATEST NAM/GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS ARE EITHER
INDICATING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 15KTS (NAM BUFFER) OR WEAK
LAPSE RATES PREVENTING STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SFC (GFS).
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
AVIATION/LONG TERM...DC/WAA