[top]
000
FXUS65 KABQ 082159
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
259 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED LOWERING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE NE PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND FOR THE
NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHWEST CORNER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LATEST
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CHURNING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS A VAST PORTION OF THE INTERMTN
WEST. A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK UPPER WAVES WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS
RESULTING MAINLY IN PERIODS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE...A 1006MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS POSITIONED OVER NE NM
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL BNDRY...THAT HAS ALREADY PUSHED
SOUTH THROUGH KRTN AND KCAO.
12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SEEP WEST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. NET EFFECT MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER READINGS IN THE NE PLAINS WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW CLOUDS MONDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL BENEATH
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BNDRY PUSHES FURTHER WEST ENHANCING
UPSLOPE FLOW. 12Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE ONLY A VERY THIN
SATURATED LAYER AT 750-800MB OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THEREFORE
CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP IS LOW...HENCE DECREASED POPS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED QUASI-ZONAL H5 FLOW
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AREAWIDE. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL INCREASE
EACH DAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WHILE THE
EXTENDED ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXACT TIMING AND POSITION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THERE IS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL NEW MEXICO TERMINALS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. BEYOND 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING AND SURGE THROUGH THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT KLVS AND MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR AT KTCC. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR LOW CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE 09 TO 15Z. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. KW
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AIDING IN LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
CORRESPONDING DRY HUMIDITIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BY EVENING
AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP...VALLEY
LIGHT SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. GOOD TO VERY GOOD
RECOVERIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
HOLD RH VALUES UP THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST EXCEPT FOR
WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND WEST.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING EXCELLENT RECOVERIES TO ALL OF THE
EAST/CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
EASTERLY GAP WINDS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES /ALBEIT FROM
RECENT DAYTIME MAXIMA/ EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ENSUE FOR WEDNESDAY.
STRONG LEE SIDE TROFFING AHEAD OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOW END WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN TRACK BRINGING WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH...CENTRAL AND EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY. KW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 31 65 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 25 62 23 65 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 27 64 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 24 63 23 69 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 28 62 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 24 65 24 68 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 28 63 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 37 72 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 24 59 24 61 / 0 5 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 59 35 59 / 0 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 32 63 30 64 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 60 25 59 / 5 5 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 23 52 22 54 / 5 5 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 24 53 22 56 / 5 5 5 0
TAOS............................ 25 61 24 61 / 0 5 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 29 65 29 67 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 34 63 35 63 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 32 64 33 64 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 67 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 68 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 36 69 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 38 68 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 30 67 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 38 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 34 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 61 30 61 / 0 0 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 62 31 61 / 0 0 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 60 34 58 / 0 0 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 66 36 63 / 0 0 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 41 70 38 69 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 33 62 33 63 / 0 0 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 29 50 30 56 / 5 10 5 0
RATON........................... 30 58 27 60 / 5 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 32 58 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 39 57 37 64 / 5 10 5 0
ROY............................. 35 56 35 59 / 0 5 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 41 60 37 63 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 39 60 36 63 / 0 0 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 60 37 67 / 0 5 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 42 62 40 64 / 0 5 10 10
PORTALES........................ 41 64 40 66 / 0 5 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 37 66 39 65 / 0 0 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 41 70 42 70 / 0 0 5 5
PICACHO......................... 39 66 39 66 / 0 0 5 0
ELK............................. 37 66 36 63 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER/17
000
FXUS65 KABQ 080957
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
257 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WEAK W FLOW THROUGH TUE AS A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR S MOVES SLOWLY INTO
W TX. WEAK RIDGING ON MON AND TUE THEN INCREASING SW FLOW FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LESS
THAN ON SAT...AS ONE STORM PASSES TO OUR S AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO
OUR N. TOOK TEMPERATURES UP TO MATCH OR EXCEED GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH
HIGHS REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST PLACES. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NE LATER THIS PM AND SLIDE S TON. WHILE IT
WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE E ON MON...IT LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL PUSH
IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG. THUS RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
IN THE E MON...BETWEEN THE COOLER NAM AND WARMER GFS. A SECOND SURGE
MON NIGHT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING TUE ACROSS THE E. WEAK E
CANYON WINDS SHOULD SQUEEZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER MON
NIGHT. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE ON MON. BEHIND THE SECOND SURGE WILL CALL THE PRECIPITATION
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FOG MON NIGHT AND TUE AM. LIGHT
SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS DURING
THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE PM OVER THE EC PLAINS AND
CHAVES COUNTY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY HELP
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THU INTO
SAT...FAVORING THE NW AND NC ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY FRI. CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FORM A CEILING
AT TIMES AS THEY CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TODAY. A STRAY
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SANGRES AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS THANKS TO A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIP INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ON NEW MEXICOS EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAINLY NORTH OF NM
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN A SPOTTY
RAIN SHOWER OR HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF OUR
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO WAIVER ON
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LATEST
MOS SUGGESTS A WEAK EAST WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY BELOW
CANYONS FOR A TIME MONDAY NIGHT. THANKS TO THE FRONT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DROP TO NEAR AND A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST...WHILE WESTERN READINGS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER STATEWIDE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. SHORTWAVES WILL CYCLE THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR
FORECAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. ONE OF THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVES COULD CROSS NM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AND A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND COMMENCES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS THIS STRONGER WAVE CROSSES. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO AVERT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 68 33 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 64 27 63 23 / 0 0 5 5
CUBA............................ 67 33 65 29 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 67 26 65 26 / 0 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 64 30 62 29 / 0 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 69 26 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 66 30 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 75 36 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 62 27 61 25 / 0 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 38 59 36 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 63 30 65 33 / 0 0 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 29 58 26 / 0 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 59 25 53 25 / 0 10 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 58 26 56 27 / 0 10 10 10
TAOS............................ 64 27 62 25 / 0 5 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 69 34 67 32 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 67 36 64 35 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 67 34 64 33 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 41 66 44 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 42 68 42 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 70 36 69 38 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 40 68 40 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 72 37 70 38 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 38 68 38 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 73 38 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 65 33 62 29 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 32 65 30 / 0 0 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 67 36 60 32 / 0 0 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 38 63 33 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 71 38 69 37 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 67 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 64 30 54 28 / 0 10 10 5
RATON........................... 70 32 57 28 / 0 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 33 58 30 / 0 0 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 74 38 55 36 / 0 10 10 5
ROY............................. 71 35 53 33 / 0 0 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 76 41 59 34 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 39 58 33 / 0 0 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 78 40 61 36 / 0 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 76 42 63 37 / 0 0 5 20
PORTALES........................ 77 41 64 38 / 0 0 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 77 39 66 37 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 77 41 70 42 / 0 0 5 10
PICACHO......................... 79 38 66 39 / 0 0 0 10
ELK............................. 75 39 66 40 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40/44
000
FXUS65 KABQ 072139
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
239 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRID SUITE. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LOW TRAVERSING
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WITH ABUNDANT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER MUCH OF NM. RAISED SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. 12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET SHOW
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THIS UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT QUICKLY
EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS THRU SUNDAY AS MODEST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS NM. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S/20S HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE
AROUND 15F ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. CONTINUED LEE TROUGHING AND DRY LOW
LEVELS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
LATE SUNDAY BEHIND THE OPENING UPPER WAVE FROM TODAY/TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO HANG UP OVER THE NE PLAINS EARLY
MONDAY. A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE FRONT RANGE BEHIND THIS SECOND UPPER WAVE...ALLOWING THE
SURFACE FRONT TO SEEP WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NET IMPACT IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY. WENT CLOSER TO MET
GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON MAX TEMPS TUESDAY OVER THE PLAINS AS MODEL
SUITE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AIDED BY BROAD UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INHIBIT
HEATING THEREFORE FAVORED LOW END OF MAX TEMP GUIDANCE. LEFT POPS
IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE OVER THE PLAINS BUT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
SOME DRIZZLE MAY BE THE ONLY SENSIBLE EFFECT.
EAST WINDS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY APPEAR WEAK AT THIS POINT TUESDAY
MORNING. CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION SHOWS A SHALLOW COLD POOL...A
WEAK SURFACE DENSITY GRADIENT...AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SURFACE FRONT...THUS INHIBITING ANY HELP FROM
MID LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
BEYOND TUESDAY...MODELS DO SHOW A LARGE SCALE LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE BAJA
EAST ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN EFFECTS ACROSS NM
WILL BE TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY BREEZIER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLY SPREAD REGARDING SEVERAL STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES THAT ATTEMPT TO CARVE A SHARPER TROUGH INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. KW
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LEE SIDE TROUGH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER CREATING BREEZY...DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS PROMINENT OVER
THE SOUTH...CENTRAL AND WEST LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
WITH LESS WIND AS COMPARED TO THE EAST.
UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE LOWER
AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
REPEAT PERFORMANCE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING BACK
TO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH A FEW 30S OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BRINGING EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. NEXT AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THROUGH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING EXCELLENT MOISTURE RECOVERIES TO MOST
LOCALES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. KW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 35 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 25 62 28 61 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 33 65 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 65 26 65 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 28 62 31 62 / 0 0 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 29 67 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 35 64 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 38 73 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 26 60 28 59 / 0 0 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 60 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 38 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 34 59 29 55 / 0 0 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 28 57 26 51 / 0 0 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 24 57 26 53 / 0 0 10 10
TAOS............................ 28 62 28 59 / 0 0 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 28 67 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 38 65 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 34 65 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 67 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 68 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 69 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 68 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 69 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 38 71 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 64 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 67 34 63 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 65 37 58 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 67 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 39 68 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 40 64 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 39 62 31 50 / 0 0 10 10
RATON........................... 35 68 33 53 / 0 0 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 68 32 56 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 45 72 38 51 / 0 0 10 10
ROY............................. 41 69 35 50 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 44 74 42 55 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 75 39 56 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 47 76 40 56 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 44 75 42 61 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 44 76 41 62 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 75 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 43 77 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 40 77 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 36 73 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER/17
000
FXUS65 KABQ 071003
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
229 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...PERHAPS TRENDING A BIT WETTER LATER NEXT WEEK.
STORM TO PASS TO OUR S THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY
SUN. BACK DOOR FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE NE SUN NIGHT AND MOVE S MON
AND W MON NIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE SUN NIGHT
OVER THE NE AND ALL OF THE E MON NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS WELL. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM MOVING TOWARD NW
MEXICO WILL MAINLY IMPACT AREAS S OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING MOST AREAS ON SUN
AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE E ON MON. WEAK E WIND LIKELY
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MON NIGHT.
WEAK RIDGING EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SW FLOW. A
COUPLE OF WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL PASS MAINLY N OF NM. THE STRONGEST
ONE LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THU THROUGH SAT PRIMARILY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FORM A CEILING AS THEY CROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE PATCHES
OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL HELP TO DECREASE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY.
NONETHELESS...WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. WE KEPT SMALL POPS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. THE PASSING TROUGH WILL DRIVE A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS FRONT COULD HELP TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AS IT LINGERS IN THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A WEAK EAST WIND BELOW CANYONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. MODELS
STILL ARE NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THERE
MAY BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FIRST MAY PRODUCE SPOTTY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO CLAYTON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 70 37 66 35 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 72 24 68 25 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 68 25 66 25 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 70 30 66 26 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 70 25 66 23 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 70 31 67 29 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 72 27 68 22 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 75 37 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 64 24 62 24 / 0 0 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 68 28 66 29 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 73 32 69 32 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 29 64 27 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 61 24 59 25 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 23 61 21 / 0 0 5 10
TAOS............................ 67 28 61 30 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 73 27 71 31 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 70 36 67 35 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 35 66 35 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 71 38 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 32 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 39 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 31 75 32 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 74 40 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 76 37 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 33 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 29 70 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 38 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 36 73 34 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 39 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 70 37 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 71 30 68 27 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 75 32 68 32 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 36 67 34 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 76 42 70 38 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 71 41 68 38 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 81 46 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 38 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 43 76 42 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 77 42 73 43 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 76 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 79 39 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 79 44 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 81 42 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 76 35 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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