[top]
000
FXUS65 KABQ 242147
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
...UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...
.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WINDS ALOFT ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS NORTHWEST
FLOW DIES OUT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. A CHILLY
MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR MOST
LOCALES TO WARM UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN SECTIONS
WHERE STRONG INVERSIONS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERCOME. MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS WERE EASILY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NEARBY MID SLOPE
AREAS THIS MORNING...SUCH AS THE ALBUQUERQUE SOUTH VALLEY STATION
WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM OF 17 DEGREES VERSUS THE 27 DEGREE
MINIMUM AT THE AIRPORT. TONIGHT/S READINGS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT/S...AND HAVE GONE NEAR PERSISTENCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GIVEN THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
EFFICIENT WITH LITTLE MIXING.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INTRUDE UPON THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL POSE LITTLE IMPACT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OTHER
THAN A WIND SHIFT AND A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING. OTHER AREAS
WILL TREND UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A BROAD
YET WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER THE BAJA...AND THIS
WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TAKING
SHAPE BY LATE THURSDAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ENSUING.
FOR FRIDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD INTO THE MEXICAN MAINLAND WITH SOME INCREASE TO CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HOLD FRIDAY WITH ALL
EYES TURNING TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE GREAT BASIN.
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA...NOW A 516 DAM LOW...WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS
UPSTREAM SYSTEM...HAVE SIDED WITH HYDROMET PREDICTION
CENTER...NEIGHBORING OFFICES...AND FUTURE SHIFTS TOWARD A ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS THE COLD CORE ROUGHLY ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR
OF EASTERN AZ AND NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS TRACK WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASILY DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER NM LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF EASTWARD BY MONDAY. MANY DETAILS ARE STILL OBSCURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER OF THE STORM CLOSES
OFF AND TAKES A SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR WITHIN 3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE. WINDS WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD ONLY REACH 12 TO 22 KNOTS. THE WIND SHIFT WILL THEN
REACH TUCUMCARI AROUND MID DAY WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND LIGHTER
GUSTS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER AND POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A
STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION PERSISTS OVER NEW MEXICO.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MANY
AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND GRADUALLY ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH READINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A
WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL WASHOUT THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACCESS CROSSES NEW
MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WARMING ON THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS THROUGH MID WEEK WILL REMAIN LIGHT...ACCEPT FOR
A FEW GUSTS WITH EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE CURRENTS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A FEW NORTHERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN
THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURFACE WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW HOURS
OF IMPROVING VENTILATION LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND
MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
WINDIER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. WHILE
FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...CONSIDERABLY
COLDER AIR DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THERE
IS SOME CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THIS STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 14 47 18 53 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 11 51 12 54 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 15 51 14 54 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 8 50 9 56 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 13 51 13 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 7 53 9 57 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 15 55 14 58 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 26 64 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 7 49 8 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 20 51 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 18 52 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 10 48 9 54 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 6 42 8 48 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 7 46 7 49 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 9 50 8 54 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 17 52 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 17 51 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 18 51 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 22 53 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 26 52 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 18 52 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 21 53 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 16 53 19 56 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 24 53 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 19 55 20 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 18 52 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 10 53 14 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 18 52 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 20 54 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 27 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 19 53 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 12 45 14 57 / 0 5 0 0
RATON........................... 11 51 13 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 16 54 19 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 21 51 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 16 52 19 58 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 19 57 22 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 20 58 23 65 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 21 56 24 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 26 58 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 23 59 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 22 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 27 62 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 26 64 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 22 61 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52/44
000
FXUS65 KABQ 241013
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE EXTENDED POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CONUS. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER WAVE FROM MONDAY SLIDING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. AN
IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
HOVERING BTWN 0 AND 10F IN MANY LOCALES. CLEAR SKIES...FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR ARE MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT AREAWIDE.
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. A SUBTLE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE
NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES
OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK PRESSURE RISES OVER
THE FRONT RANGE. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND VERY DRY
AIR WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS WITH SOME VERY COLD
TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCALES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IN MID SLOPE AREAS THAN VALLEYS DUE TO
WEAK MIXING BENEATH A SURFACE TO 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE.
00Z MODELS INCLUDING ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE REMARKABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DAY 5 ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTER STORM OVER
THE SW CONUS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 00Z GEM/ECMWF/DGEX HAVE BEEN
THE MOST CONSISTENT AND BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHILE THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
STRENGTH AND TIMING HOWEVER IT IS BEGINNING TO LINE UP. RAISED POPS
TO CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN/EAST SLOPES FOR LATE SATURDAY
INTO LATE SUNDAY. IT IS STILL VERY EARLY TO BEGIN NAILING DOWN ANY
DETAILS AS MODELS CAN ALWAYS CHANGE THEIR TUNE. IT DOES APPEAR TEMPS
WILL BE VERY COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM THEREFORE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE
HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS. GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO RELAX TODAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER COLORADO...HOWEVER NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30 KT AT
TIMES BEFORE 22Z ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE VFR.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A VERY
DRY AIR MASS AND POOR VENTILATION TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVERALL TODAY...AND
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS MAY MAKE FOR SOME TOPSY TURVY READINGS WITH
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WARMER THAN
VALLEY LOCALES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY COOL TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY.
ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME
WESTERLY AND START TO INCREASE. WINDIER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. WHILE FORECAST MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR
DOES LOOK TO SPREAD OVER NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THIS STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 46 14 47 15 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 7 52 13 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 48 8 52 14 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 49 2 50 6 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 49 10 51 12 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 50 5 53 9 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 50 12 55 14 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 60 23 62 24 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 46 10 50 13 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 20 50 22 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 50 18 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 8 50 9 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 3 42 13 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 0 47 0 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 46 5 50 6 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 50 11 50 13 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 17 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 15 51 21 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 28 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 18 50 18 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 22 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 12 52 13 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 21 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 55 20 55 18 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 20 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 13 52 17 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 21 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 23 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 25 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 23 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 47 14 46 17 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 50 14 51 15 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 20 55 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 53 26 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 51 18 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 55 22 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 22 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 21 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 56 26 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 56 23 59 24 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 23 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 58 22 63 24 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 24 65 25 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 56 27 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
GUYER
000
FXUS65 KABQ 232200
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES
TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SWEEPING EASTWARD. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES COMBINED WITH
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 PRODUCING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS.
MODELS...CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEK...WITH SOME RESOLUTION OF DIFFERENCES FOR THE WEEKEND
EMERGING. MODELS MOVING TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND
BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CANADA BORDER. RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY TO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AS IT TRANSLATES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. RIDGE WILL START SLOW COLLAPSE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT INBOUND NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM SLAMS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGS TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ECMWF SEEMS LIKE THE WINNER FOR THE WEEKEND...AS BOTH
DOMESTIC AND EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS NOW DEEPEN TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA PLACING NEW MEXICO IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE WEEKEND GETS STARTED. AS TROUGH DRIFTS TO
THE EAST...COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY FOR A CHILLY AND
VERY WINTRY ENDING TO THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. AS TROUGH NUDGES
EAST TO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY...NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN UNDER
BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC TO THE NORTHWEST PRAIRIES OF CANADA.
NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS
EVENING...AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. COLDER
AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
FOR TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REDUCED ALOFT AS RIDGE TO THE WEST
BEGINS SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST. SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO TAKE EDGE OFF
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE WARMER SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...POWERFUL ALBERTA CLIPPER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EN
ROUTE TO THE MIDWEST WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY. COOLER AIR WILL PUT BRAKES ON ANY
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS AROUND TO THE NORTH.
FOR THANKSGIVING...PICTURE PERFECT THANKSGIVING AS RIDGE CORE
MOVES OVER THE HEART OF THE STATE...AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES. LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY AS WEAK TROUGH DEEPENS FROM NORTHERN SONORA
TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...NEXT NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM
APPROACHING ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH BROAD INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO A FEW MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL REACH THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WESTERLY AND
PUTTING BRAKES ON THANKSGIVING WARM UP. SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE
BREEZIEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
REINFORCING DISTURBANCE WILL SLAM SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS LATE SATURDAY...MOVING
COLD AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD INTO
NEW MEXICO FOR A WINTRY WRAP UP TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SINKING BACK TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
NORMAL IN SPOTS FOR SUNDAY.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
THE INTERACTION OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WITH LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY WILL
MAKE THE WIND DIRECTIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM TAFS TRICKY TO
FORECAST UNTIL SUNSET TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAF AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN AROUND SUNSET
AS THE FRONT EXITS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER...LIGHTER WINDS AND POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WEST OF NEW MEXICO. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
BELOW 15 PERCENT IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH
THURSDAY. COOL AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE STATE
TODAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR NORMAL TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE WEST.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE EAST FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE WEDNESDAY KEEPING EASTERN TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN TO NUDGE UPWARD ON FRIDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER NM IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MODELS PROG TO DROP INTO THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROP IF THIS TROUGH CAN DEVELOP INTO A STORM SYSTEM
BEFORE REACHING NEW MEXICO. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT
ON THE DEPTH OF THE POTENTIAL STORM...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT MAY DEVELOP
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 14 45 14 46 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 4 44 6 47 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 7 43 8 46 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 6 47 6 49 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 7 47 8 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 6 48 6 51 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 11 51 11 53 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 24 64 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 0 40 1 43 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 10 45 11 47 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 13 47 14 49 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 1 43 1 45 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 1 38 7 40 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 2 44 6 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 2 45 3 47 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 14 52 16 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 12 47 12 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 14 49 15 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 21 50 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 24 51 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 23 51 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 24 51 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 19 56 21 56 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 22 51 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 22 58 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 17 47 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 15 50 17 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 18 47 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 20 53 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 25 58 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 24 52 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 12 45 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 11 48 14 50 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 16 50 16 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 22 52 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 18 51 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 23 59 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 23 59 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 23 60 22 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 25 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 24 57 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 24 62 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 28 61 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 24 62 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 26 58 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHY/44
000
FXUS65 KABQ 231012
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE RATHER BENIGN...HOWEVER
THERE ARE A FEW INTERESTING WEATHER FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA. THE FIRST TO NOTE IS A MODERATE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
PUSHING QUICKLY SE OVER NORTHERN AZ/UT/AND WESTERN CO. A 1030MB
SURFACE HIGH IS BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH A 1004MB LEE TROUGH
OVER NE NM. TOOK A CLOSE LOOK AT 00Z BUFKIT PROFILES AND 00Z LOCAL
7.5KM WRF/NAM/RUC GUIDANCE AND DECIDED TO RAISE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE EAST SLOPES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM 14Z-22Z TODAY. MODELS
DEVELOP A 55-65 KNOT 700MB MOUNTAIN WAVE COINCIDENT WITH BEST
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT...PARTICULARLY IN
THE AREA BTWN RATON...LAS VEGAS...CLINES CORNERS...W GUADALUPE...
AND NE LINCOLN COUNTIES. 700MB TEMPS THIS MORNING NEAR 0C WILL BE
REPLACED WITH -6C TO -8C THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEREFORE FALLING TEMPS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS AFTER 18Z. A FEW FLURRIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MTS AND THE RATON RIDGE TODAY.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
VERY DRY AIR AND COLD TEMPS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE
NW FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER EACH NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING THANKSGIVING
DAY. TEMPS WILL START OUT AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL TODAY THEN CREEP
UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WHICH SHOULD REALLY BE A
SPECTACULAR DAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE IS COMING INTO SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTER STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER
ITS STRENGTH IS STILL A BIG QUESTION. ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THIS POTENTIAL STORM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES SO STAY TUNED. GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL LOCATIONS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID DAY TODAY.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 05
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
VARIATIONS IN THE WIND PATTERN. TODAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...WINDS
OVER AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
TODAY. RH WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS WILL LIKELY BE
MET FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RED FLAG WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME. VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST
AND FAIR TO GOOD ACROSS THE WEST. COLDER AIR MOVES OVER THE STATE
WITH AN ENHANCED BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BY TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 8 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER ALL ZONES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...GRADIENT RELAXES AS DO
SURFACE WINDS. VENTILATION WILL BE POOR WITH MUCH WEAKER MIXING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALL ZONES.
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OVER
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY... MAINTAINING A DRY AIR MASS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS OVER NEW MEXICO WITH A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND
CONTINUING. VENTILATION REMAINS POOR...OVERNIGHT INVERSION TO AFFECT
MID SLOPE TEMPERATURES.
WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO NEW MEXICO OVER
THE WEEKEND. 05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 44 13 44 15 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 44 3 45 7 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 42 6 43 8 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 46 5 47 6 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 46 8 48 10 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 48 6 48 7 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 51 11 51 12 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 63 22 61 22 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 39 0 45 7 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 10 46 17 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 48 13 49 17 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 2 44 4 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 38 1 37 8 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 1 41 4 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 45 2 44 5 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 14 49 12 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 12 45 16 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 14 46 17 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 21 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 24 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 22 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 23 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 18 49 15 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 21 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 60 21 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 17 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 14 50 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 18 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 20 51 21 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 25 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 23 50 22 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 43 12 45 16 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 47 12 49 13 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 17 48 17 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 50 23 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 52 18 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 23 55 18 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 22 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 23 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 62 25 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 63 24 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 23 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 28 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 68 23 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 65 27 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ515-523-528-529-532-533-539.
&&
$$
GUYER/05
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