000
FXUS65 KVEF 081731
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
&&

.UPDATE...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS WERE EVIDENT ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE/LINCOLN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. HOWEVER...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES
SHOWED A RAPID DECREASE IN THE ELY/NEEDLES PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE 12Z NAM/GFS INDICATE SUPPORT
FOR NORTH WIND VANISHES SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. NO FORECAST UPDATE NEEDED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 7-10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH ABOUT 20Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO UNDER 6 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8-12 KNOTS EXPECTED
THROUGH 20Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO UNDER 7 KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VARYING AMOUNTS OF
HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../224 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009/

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER SLUG OF CIRRUS ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 95 AND PUSHING EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERLY BREEZES AT A COUPLE OF WIND PRONE
STATIONS ON THE NEVADA TEST SITE COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL WAVES OF CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A
FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...CHANGE LITTLE ON
MONDAY...AND THEN RISE A COUPLE DEGREES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THOUGH
DIFFERING IN THE DEPTH AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
SCENARIO. MOISTURE AND HENCE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
IN THIS SITUATION AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS COULD FALL IN NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT THE END OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO ABOUT NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM COULD GET TO THE BREEZY LEVEL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND IS A BIT UNCLEAR BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR SMALLER AMPLITUDE
WAVES TO PASS THROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WELL TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

ADAIR/GORELOW/MORGAN/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

000
FXUS65 KLKN 081118
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
318 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. ALL THE WHILE...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DROP SOUTH...USHERING A
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BY MID-
WEEK. VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...WITH DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...A PLACID WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ON TAP
FOR SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND MUCH OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH CLOSES IN ON THE WEST COAST...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCES WILL INCREASE RESULTING IS GUSTY CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONALLY...A FETCH OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO CENTRAL NEVADA...BLANKETING THE LKN CWA WITH DECKS OF ALTO-CU
AND CIRRUS. INCREASED POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...HOWEVER...ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...AND
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LKN CWA. TEMPERATURE-WISE THIS
PERIOD THE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL TRANSITION FROM POSITIVE TO
NEUTRAL...TRANSLATING INTO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.
HOWEVER...THESE TYPICAL HEIGHTS WILL RAPIDLY BE DISPLACED BY
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM ON LATEST RUNS. THERE IS LIKELY TO
BE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING MID-WEEK POSSIBLE LASTING INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW
MUCH THE TROUGH WILL DIG WHICH WILL AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AND AMOUNT OF COLD AIR INTRUSION WHICH WILL AFFECT PRECIP TYPE. DID
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES HOWEVER DID TRY TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR
TIMING OF THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST WILL HAVE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/92/92

000
FXUS65 KVEF 081024
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
224 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS ANOTHER SLUG OF CIRRUS ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 95 AND PUSHING EAST. SURFACE OBS SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS EXCEPT FOR NORTHERLY BREEZES AT A COUPLE OF WIND PRONE
STATIONS ON THE NEVADA TEST SITE COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE THERMAL LOW OVER THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL WAVES OF CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A
FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...CHANGE LITTLE ON
MONDAY...AND THEN RISE A COUPLE DEGREES ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A STORM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THOUGH
DIFFERING IN THE DEPTH AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL
SCENARIO. MOISTURE AND HENCE PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
IN THIS SITUATION AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS COULD FALL IN NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN NEVADA
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT THE END OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO ABOUT NORMAL LEVELS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM COULD GET TO THE BREEZY LEVEL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND IS A BIT UNCLEAR BUT CONSENSUS IS FOR SMALLER AMPLITUDE
WAVES TO PASS THROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WELL TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING DIURNAL PATTERNS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS AND VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

000
FXUS65 KREV 080940
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...
BROAD ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WITH POCKETS OF
EMBEDDED WEAK VORT ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL SPREAD VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION TODAY. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY TO RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS. ALSO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED INTO THE
REGION WITH THE SLIDE MOUNTAIN DEW POINT CURRENTLY AT -21 F. THIS
DRY AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW COAST
MONDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD THE CA
COAST. A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT GENERATES
A PRECIP BAND MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN CA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS EAST. MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS REGARDING
HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIP BAND SURVIVES WITH THE NAM BEING THE
WETTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION...WHICH IS SURPRISING AT 60
HOURS OUT. EITHER WAY FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO
WARRANT CHANCE POPS SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE QPF IS ANTICIPATED.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER SIMILAR SHORTWAVE AND NARROW MOISTURE PLUME
APPROACH THE WEST COAST HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM. JORDAN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MADE A FEW CHANGES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE TO
REFLECT BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE BEYOND THURSDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
PROBLEMS IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD OF DAYS 6 AND 7.

MODELS ALL CONTINUE TREND OF SLOWING LONG WAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. OPTED TO LEAVE WEDNESDAY AS IS BUT DID TREND POPS UP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND TRENDED POPS UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THURSDAY. STILL WILL NOT
GO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES THAT BEGIN
TO ARISE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH BUT IT HAS VERY LIMITED
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT
EITHER THE SLOWER MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF OR THE LESS AMPLIFIED BUT
LESS PROGRESSIVE...THAN THE GFS...CANADIAN. EITHER WAY THIS
WOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHER POPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY
GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ECMWF TENDS TO BE A LEADING INDICATOR
AND IF OTHER MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEGIN TO TREND THIS WAY
WILL NEED TO RAISE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY EVEN MORE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BEYOND THURSDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE EVEN MORE WITH
PROGRESSIVE GFS PUSHING THIS FIRST TROUGH WELL EAST AND PASSING A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RATHER WEAK WNW FLOW. ON
THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF...AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN MORE
AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY PUSH THE FIRST TROUGH EAST BY FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
THEN ECMWF DROPS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE INTO NORTHERN NV FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS ALSO HAS SOME SUPPORT IN ENSEMBLES BUT NOT TO
THE EXTENT EARLIER PERIODS OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION DO. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE INTO MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 AND A CONTINUED
CHANCE FOR PCPN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
NOT MAKE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS I WOULD PREFER TO
SEE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SETTLE DOWN BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS RATHER
NEW SOLUTION. MLF
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN VICINITY OF KTRK AND A FEW
OTHER VALLEYS IN THE SIERRA EACH NIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES. HAVE SEEN SOME FREEZING FOG THUS FAR THIS MORNING IN
VICINITY OF KTRK. FZFG IS LIMITED DUE TO WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND
SHOULD COMPLETELY LIFT BY 08/16 UTC. MLF
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS65 KREV 080627
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1027 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITY AT THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT FELL BRIEFLY TO ONE MILE THIS
EVENING...EVEN WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
THE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS NEAR ZERO AT TRUCKEE SO HAVE UPDATED
FORECASTS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID MORNING BOTH IN THE
TAHOE BASIN AND IN THE SIERRA VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RC

&&

.SHORT TERM...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP THE JET DIRECTED INTO
THE WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGEST
PIECE ENERGY UNTIL MID WEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
A SLOW WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

LOW THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WILL BE COLD AS LIGHT WINDS...NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS
FROM TRUCKEE NORTHWARD DUE TO RECENT RAINS. THERE WILL BE A DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE SIERRA LATE TONIGHT THAT SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SINCE THE MODELS KEEP THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA REDUCED
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LOW
CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE JET AND POCKETS OF
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF A LIFTING
MECHANISM AND DRY SURFACE LAYERS WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND.

DID INCREASE WINDS WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. GFS/NAM SHOWING PERIODS OF 30-40KT 700MB FLOW MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NORTH OF I-80...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE TUESDAY...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE WINDIER DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO INCREASE DUE TO LIGHT SURFACE
SUNDAY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OR AT LEAST BE FROM THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE APPROACHING WAVE TURNS THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE LOWER VALLEYS. BRONG

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM. SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK STILL
UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH GOOD CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN TROUGH...WITH MODELS REALLY HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
DETAILS OF THE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AFTER
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE COMING THROUGH ON WED TO WED NIGHT.
INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER EACH DAY IN THE
MODELS...SO DON`T REALLY HAVE MUCH STOCK IN IT...BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE. DID
INCREASE TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WARM FLOW. LOWERED TEMPS FOR
THU-FRI...NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP US COOL. WE
MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER IF THE GFS PANS OUT. AFTER
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CA/NV ON BY FRIDAY..GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT
PRECIP. HOON

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 18 KTS
BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE. 50-50 CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG AT KTRK
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...DUE TO LIGHT EAST FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDS SUNDAY MORNING. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS65 KVEF 080415
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
815 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&

.UPDATE...ZONAL FLOW WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS IS STILL EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...310 PM PST SAT NOV 7...SHORT TERM...THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOME WEAK IMPULSES BRUSHING THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE
TUESDAY LEADING TO PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY
AS HIGHS HOLD AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY SHOWING A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN COAST AND EVENTUALLY MOVING ONSHORE AROUND
WASHINGTON STATE. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRAG A WEAK THROUGH INTO
CALIFORNIA AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT SINCE BOTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THERMAL GRADIENTS ARE NOT THAT
STRONG. STILL...MOST AREAS WILL SEE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND AN
ADDITIONAL 5-7 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL MAINLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 7 KNOTS MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HARRISON/ADAIR/GORELOW

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

000
FXUS65 KVEF 072312
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
310 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL. THE PATTERN WILL
CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOME WEAK IMPULSES
BRUSHING THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ALONG THE WEST
COAST LATE TUESDAY LEADING TO PATTERN CHANGE DURING THE MID TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE ONLY A DEGREE
OR TWO EACH DAY AS HIGHS HOLD AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY SHOWING A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN COAST AND EVENTUALLY MOVING ONSHORE AROUND
WASHINGTON STATE. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DRAG A WEAK THROUGH INTO
CALIFORNIA AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MOST OF THE
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT SINCE BOTH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND THERMAL GRADIENTS ARE NOT THAT
STRONG. STILL...MOST AREAS WILL SEE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES...ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND AN
ADDITIONAL 5-7 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL MAINLY BRING AN INCREASE IN
WINDS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF
HIGH CLOUDS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 7 KNOTS MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS
OVER WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WILL BE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

ADAIR/GORELOW

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

000
FXUS65 KREV 072235
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL KEEP THE JET DIRECTED INTO
THE WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGEST
PIECE ENERGY UNTIL MID WEEK. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
A SLOW WARMING TREND AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY.

LOW THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS WILL BE COLD AS LIGHT WINDS...NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS
FROM TRUCKEE NORTHWARD DUE TO RECENT RAINS. THERE WILL BE A DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE SIERRA LATE TONIGHT THAT SHOULD
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SINCE THE MODELS KEEP THE ENERGY NORTH OF THE AREA REDUCED
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LOW
CHANCE SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH THE JET AND POCKETS OF
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF A LIFTING
MECHANISM AND DRY SURFACE LAYERS WILL LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND.

DID INCREASE WINDS WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. GFS/NAM SHOWING PERIODS OF 30-40KT 700MB FLOW MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NORTH OF I-80...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS. SURFACE GRADIENTS INCREASE TUESDAY...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE WINDIER DAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLOW TO INCREASE DUE TO LIGHT SURFACE
SUNDAY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OR AT LEAST BE FROM THE SOUTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN THE APPROACHING WAVE TURNS THE FLOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HELPS TO MIX OUT THE LOWER VALLEYS. BRONG


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM. SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK STILL
UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH GOOD CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MEAN TROUGH...WITH MODELS REALLY HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
DETAILS OF THE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AFTER
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.

THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE COMING THROUGH ON WED TO WED NIGHT.
INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN-SNOW IN THE
SIERRA. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER EACH DAY IN THE
MODELS...SO DON`T REALLY HAVE MUCH STOCK IN IT...BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE. DID
INCREASE TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WARM FLOW. LOWERED TEMPS FOR
THU-FRI...NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP US COOL. WE
MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER IF THE GFS PANS OUT. AFTER
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN CA/NV ON BY FRIDAY..GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT AT LIGHT
PRECIP. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST UP TO 18 KTS
BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE. 50-50 CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG AT KTRK
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW...DUE TO LIGHT EAST FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT
STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDS SUNDAY MORNING. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS65 KLKN 072225
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
225 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE...WHICH
PRODUCED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING...IS EXITING NORTHEAST
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK ZONAL FLOW
PERSISTING THRU MONDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AS A
TROF APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND
INCREASED CLOUDS. REA

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND COLDER WEATHER. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY INVOLVED AND THE INTERACTION AND TIMING BETWEEN THE RUNS IS
DIFFERENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN GREATER CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...MADE SIGNIFICANT INCREASES TO POPS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO CUT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK
FROM OUR RECENT BOUT OF QUIET WEATHER. SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...A WARMING TREND WITH QUIET WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT WILL AFFECT OUR
NORTHERN TAF SITES...PARTCULARLY KEKO...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO GUST UPWARDS OF 20
KNOTS AT MOST SITES. AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH NO CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL. RCM

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

90/93/93

000
FXUS65 KVEF 071702 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED TWO BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ENHANCING OVER THE AREA WITH A BREAK IN BETWEEN. THE 12Z GFS HIGH
LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATED THE NORTHERN BAND WILL WIDEN AND INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO BUMP UP SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../245 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE...WITH A
SLUG OF CIRRUS RACING IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. OUR CWFA IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PROGRESSES EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ON MONDAY BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE
SHORT TERM ENDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT...QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE FIVE-DAY STREAK OF 80S IN LAS VEGAS IS PROBABLY OVER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST. FROM TUESDAY ON MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE SHALLOWEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSEST TO THE EC WHICH IS
DEEPER. THE GEM IS DEEPEST OF THEM ALL. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
EC/GFS MEAN. ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE ON KEEPING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
TROUGHS SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST BROAD BRUSHED AS THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. IF LATER PROGS SHOW A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND A DEEPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER OUR
AREA THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE DOWNWARD REVISION AND A
CLOSER LOOK AT BRINGING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS MAINLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
25K FEET.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

000
FXUS65 KLKN 071055
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
255 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SAG INTO THE SILVER
STATE THIS WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS
MOST CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NEAR THE BORDER WITH
IDAHO. RADAR INDICATING POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS HOWEVER MINIMAL ECHOES THIS MORNING.

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
NOTED ATTM OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY DUE TO THE LATERAL MOVEMENT
OF A 90KT JET CROSSING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. GFS STILL DICTATES A
COUPLE OF VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. COULD NOT
INDIVIDUALIZE SHORTWAVES ON NAM MODEL HOWEVER FLOW IS SIMILAR. COLD FRONT
WILL JUST SAG SOUTH WITH LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN SLOW COOLING FOR
THE CWA. MODELS ARE INDICATING DRY AFTER TODAY...NO POPS AFTER
THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE OUT NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SINK TOWARDS
THE 20 DEGREE MARK AS A RULE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA...PROVIDING
BULLS-EYES OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND YIELDING ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER...HOWEVER...MINIMAL QPF IS
ANTICIPATED. AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNFOLDS...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
NOTICEABLY DIVERGE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS THAT THE LONGWAVE
TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST AND DEEPEN...RESULTING IN A CHANGE IN
PATTERN FROM POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES...PUTTING THE KIBOSH ON THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE
CWA HAD BEEN EXPERIENCING. A STRONG FRONT WILL CARVE ITS WAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA MIDWEEK...BRINGING STRONG CAA...
SNOWS...AND GUSTY CONDITIONS. AT THEIR PEAK...PWATS WILL RANGE FROM
.40 TO .50 WITH THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE...POPS REFLECT A BLEND OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.
&&

.AVIATION...A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN TODAY RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF RAIN/SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...HOWEVER...THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97

000
FXUS65 KREV 071047
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
247 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES SPINNING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH COLD
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND EMBEDDED VORT ENERGY
PASSING OVERHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
JET MAX SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY OVER NRN
CA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE VERY LIGHT RAIN THAT
CONTINUES OVER THE SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE NORTH. IR SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY STRUGGLE AT SEEING THE LIGHT PRECIP AS IT IS QUITE
SHALLOW...WHICH IS EVIDENT BY THE 07/00Z KREV SOUNDING INDICATING
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB. LATEST MODELS SHOW PV ADVECTION
CONTINUING IN THE SAME REGION UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER 12Z...SO KEPT
SHOWERS GOING FROM TAHOE NORTH UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. SOME VIRGA MAY
REACH THE LEESIDE VALLEYS BUT NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH VERTICAL
VELOCITY FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE.

WEAK TROUGHINESS CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EMBEDDED VORT ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. NORTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER WRN NV THROUGH SUNDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW COAST ON
MONDAY AMPLIFYING A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING WARMING ALOFT AS WELL AS
BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING AND ALLOW VALLEY TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK NEAR
THE 60 DEGREE MARK. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A PRECIP BAND MOVING OVER NRN CA THAT QUICKLY
DISSIPATES AS IT DOES SO. KEPT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
FAR NRN AND WRN ZONES BUT MOST PRECIP ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL THE LONG TERM. JORDAN


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN EARLY
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT JUST LIKE YESTERDAY THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND TODAY THIS
DIVERGENCE IS GREATER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS SHOW A GENERAL TREND
TOWARD SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH INTO AND THROUGH THE RGN STARTING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT LOWER POPS FOR TUESDAY AND HIGHER POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THAN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO
LEAVE TUESDAY AS IS AND JUST SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY. AM NOT INCLINED TO JUMP TOO HEAVILY INTO WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT GIVEN THE EVER CHANGING MODEL GUIDANCE.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS FASTEST WITH PUSHING THE
TROUGH INTO THE RGN WHILE BOTH THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND CANADIAN
MODELS HOLD THE BULK OF THE TROUGH OFF SHORE. THE CANADIAN IS NOW
THE FIRST TO SPLIT A CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH AND DROP IT INTO CA ON THURSDAY. MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AREA A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AT THIS POINT AS WELL.

DIVERGENCE INCREASES MORE BY THURSDAY. AS MENTIONED THE CANADIAN HAS
SPLIT THE SYSTEM BY THEN WITH A LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO CA. THIS HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS
STARTING TO CLOSE A LOW OFF OVER SE OREGON INTO NW NV. LASTLY THE
PROGRESSIVE GFS IS PUSHING THE TROUGH WELL EAST AND TRYING TO
DEVELOP A SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
ECMWF AND REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NE NV/SE IDAHO ON FRIDAY. BY THEN
THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW OVER NE NV AS WELL BUT DOES NOT
CLOSE IT OFF. THIS LOW IS MUCH STRONGER/COLDER IN THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. GIVEN THE VAST DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER
DAY 5 HAVE OPTED TO MAKE ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AFTER WEDNESDAY.

SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO PUSH POPS A LITTLE MORE INTO
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. GFS TENDS
TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS AND GIVEN THAT
ECMWF IS TYPICALLY A LEADING MODEL THINK ITS SOLUTION OF SLOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW COULD WIN OUT. THIS WOULD
BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN CANADIAN/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS IN
SUBSEQUENT RUNS. MLF
&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY MRNG
FOR AREAS OF THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH AS CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY
DROP BELOW 3K FT. THROUGH THE DAY THE LOW LVL MSTR WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR ALL AREAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE SIERRA EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

LOW LVL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT SO LIKELIHOOD OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN VCNTY KTRK IS LIMITED AND WILL NOT MENTION FOR
TONIGHT. MLF
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS65 KVEF 071046
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
245 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM COULD
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE...WITH A
SLUG OF CIRRUS RACING IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS. OUR CWFA IS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM WESTERLIES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PROGRESSES EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ON MONDAY BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE
SHORT TERM ENDS MONDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT...QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE FIVE-DAY STREAK OF 80S IN LAS VEGAS IS PROBABLY OVER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING AND
DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE PACNW COAST. FROM TUESDAY ON MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE SHALLOWEST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSEST TO THE EC WHICH IS
DEEPER. THE GEM IS DEEPEST OF THEM ALL. LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
EC/GFS MEAN. ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE ON KEEPING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
TROUGHS SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST BROAD BRUSHED AS THERE
IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. IF LATER PROGS SHOW A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND A DEEPER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW MOVING OVER OUR
AREA THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE DOWNWARD REVISION AND A
CLOSER LOOK AT BRINGING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS MAINLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
25K FEET.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

MORGAN/JACQUES

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

000
FXUS65 KREV 070623
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1023 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE TO BRING HIGHER POPS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...EXTENDING OVER LAKE TAHOE AND
NORTH TO TRUCKEE AND THE SIERRA VALLEY. RADAR THIS EVENING WAS
SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA FROM LAKE TAHOE NORTHWARD. LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPED AT BLUE
CANYON SHORTLY AFTER 10 PM AND DROPPED MEASURABLE RAIN THERE.
REMAINDER OF CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH IF IT RAINS
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING NEAR TRUCKEE OR IN THE SIERRA VALLEY THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. RC

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST FROM US-50
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES.
SATELLITE SHOWS MOUNTAIN WAVES TO THE CLOUD PATTERN BUT THERE IS
RAIN STILL AFFECTING THESE AREAS...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR
TONIGHT AS MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
WARM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AS WINDS AND CLOUDS PREVENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE JET FARTHER SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER TONIGHT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH ALLOWING COOL AIR
TO WORK INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY BE A BREEZY AT TIMES WITH THE
JET OVERHEAD...BUT MODEL DATA KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT BELOW
BELOW RIDGE LEVEL INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SYSTEM IS MOVING IN A BIT SLOWER...SO DID CUT
BACK RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  BRONG

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST
BY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN CA. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL KEEPING
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SURPRISE VALLEY...EASTERN LASSEN...AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY END UP PICKING UP MORE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW THE FRONT LOOKS PRETTY DRY OVERALL. SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
FAR NWRN NV AND NERN CA. BUMPED UP TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LEFT THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FAIRLY
UNTOUCHED.

WED-FRI...WE BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS AND SPLITTING OFF A LOW
INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV. THE 06.00Z EURO SHOWED THIS AS WELL...BUT
LOOKING AT THE 06.12Z EURO FROM TODAY...IT WANTS TO BRING IT TROUGH
NORTHERN CA AND THE GREAT BASIN. EITHER WAY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVER
OUR AREA...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. LOWER TEMPS FOR WED-FRI AS WELL...TO THE GENERAL
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE.
HOON

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AT KTRK AND POSSIBLY KTVL THROUGH 03Z. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 06Z.  HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS65 KVEF 070453
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
853 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD.
&&

.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...FROM 225 PM PST...WARM CONDITIONS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TREND DOWNWARD
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO DECREASED
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
THE PAC NW AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WHILE MIXING LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY...WE SHOULD
MIX BETTER TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER. THE GFS AND ECMWF DO
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB THOUGH ON TUESDAY
WHICH IF IT YIELDS A THICK ENOUGH DECK OF CLOUDS COULD PUT A LID ON
JUST HOW MILD WE GET.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING
AND STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME INTO THE WEST.
THE 12Z RUNS GENERALLY ALL CLOSE OFF A LOW BY THE TIME THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON OR NORCAL ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AFTERWARDS
OUTSIDE OF A SUCH A LOW SITTING OVER THE WEST THEY DIVERGE BIG TIME
WITH WHERE TO PLACE THE LOW. AS A RESULT...MAINLY WENT WITH A
BROADBRUSH METHODOLOGY FOR POPS...PLACING THEM IN MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN CWFA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL EAST
ENOUGH TO MAINLY CONFINE POPS TO THE NORTHEAST CWFA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR WINDS...HARD TO TELL WHEN
AND WHAT THEY WILL DO EXACTLY BUT WOULD SUSPECT THAT THEY COULD BE
AN ISSUE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES CAUSING THEM
TO INCREASE. BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW WILL DRIVE HOW STRONG THEY GET. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE MILD
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN FALL ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...LOWERING CLOSER TO NORMAL AND THEN LOWERING TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THOUGH JUST HOW LOW IS A BIG QUESTION FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS MAINLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
25K FEET.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

LINDAMAN/KENNEDY/STACHELSKI

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS

000
FXUS65 KLKN 062304
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
304 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SILVER STATE
TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS FAR NORTH...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FAR NORTH THRU TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
COOL OFF 4 TO 8 DEGREES NORTH SATURDAY...AND A BIT LESS CENTRAL.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVING THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY...SHOWER
ACTIVITY SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THIS WAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN MONDAY AND TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
TRENDING TOWARDS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST...WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH
RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN BOTH THE GFS & ECMWF. EVEN WITH THE
LARGE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS A
DEEP 500MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPS WILL RUN +10F
ABOVE CLIMO W/ HIGHS AROUND THE 60 DEGREE MARK AND IT WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH STRONG GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY
WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE HAVING ISSUES RESOLVING CLOSED H5 LOW DIGGING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THEN THE
ECMWF...DIGGING THE ENERGY INTO ARIZONA BY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
SEEMS MORE REALISTIC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA. WENT WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY
ON...AND MUCH COOLER WITH COLD POOL OF -10C H7 TEMPS OVER CWA.
OVERALL WEATHER LOOKS UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH AND
WHERE THE PRECIP WILL FALL.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TAF TERMINALS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NV
TONIGHT...WITH SCT-BKN STRATO-CUMULUS AT KWMC/KEKO. SOME OF THE
HIGHER SUMMITS COULD BE IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST / NORTHWEST AT FRONT
PASSAGE.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

90/95/95

000
FXUS65 KREV 062232
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
232 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST FROM US-50
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES.
SATELLITE SHOWS MOUNTAIN WAVES TO THE CLOUD PATTERN BUT THERE IS
RAIN STILL AFFECTING THESE AREAS...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR
TONIGHT AS MODELS KEEP THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH A WEAK
PASSING OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN
WARM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...AS WINDS AND CLOUDS PREVENT VALLEY
INVERSIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE JET FARTHER SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER TONIGHT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AS THE JET SAGS SOUTH ALLOWING COOL AIR
TO WORK INTO THE REGION. WINDS MAY BE A BREEZY AT TIMES WITH THE
JET OVERHEAD...BUT MODEL DATA KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT BELOW
BELOW RIDGE LEVEL INTO MONDAY.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT SWITCHES TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SYSTEM IS MOVING IN A BIT SLOWER...SO DID CUT
BACK RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  BRONG

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST
BY TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN CA. MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT STILL KEEPING
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP
THE CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SURPRISE VALLEY...EASTERN LASSEN...AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY END UP PICKING UP MORE MOISTURE BEFORE
TUESDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW THE FRONT LOOKS PRETTY DRY OVERALL. SOUTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
FAR NWRN NV AND NERN CA. BUMPED UP TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LEFT THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FAIRLY
UNTOUCHED.

WED-FRI...WE BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS AND SPLITTING OFF A LOW
INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV. THE 06.00Z EURO SHOWED THIS AS WELL...BUT
LOOKING AT THE 06.12Z EURO FROM TODAY...IT WANTS TO BRING IT TROUGH
NORTHERN CA AND THE GREAT BASIN. EITHER WAY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVER
OUR AREA...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DUE TO
THE COLD AIR ALOFT. LOWER TEMPS FOR WED-FRI AS WELL...TO THE GENERAL
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE.
HOON

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS
AT KTRK AND POSSIBLY KTVL THROUGH 03Z. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AFTER 06Z.  HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

000
FXUS65 KVEF 062224
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
225 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...WARM CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL TREND DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO DECREASED SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
THE PAC NW AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND AS MUCH AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON TUESDAY. WHILE MIXING LOOKS MINIMAL ON MONDAY...WE SHOULD
MIX BETTER TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER. THE GFS AND ECMWF DO
SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ABOVE 500 MB THOUGH ON TUESDAY
WHICH IF IT YIELDS A THICK ENOUGH DECK OF CLOUDS COULD PUT A LID ON
JUST HOW MILD WE GET.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING
AND STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO COME INTO THE WEST.
THE 12Z RUNS GENERALLY ALL CLOSE OFF A LOW BY THE TIME THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON OR NORCAL ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER AFTERWARDS
OUTSIDE OF A SUCH A LOW SITTING OVER THE WEST THEY DIVERGE BIG TIME
WITH WHERE TO PLACE THE LOW. AS A RESULT...MAINLY WENT WITH A
BROADBRUSH METHODOLOGY FOR POPS...PLACING THEM IN MOST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN CWFA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM SHOULD PULL EAST
ENOUGH TO MAINLY CONFINE POPS TO THE NORTHEAST CWFA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS FOR WINDS...HARD TO TELL WHEN
AND WHAT THEY WILL DO EXACTLY BUT WOULD SUSPECT THAT THEY COULD BE
AN ISSUE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES CAUSING THEM
TO INCREASE. BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW WILL DRIVE HOW STRONG THEY GET. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE MILD
ON WEDNESDAY...THEN FALL ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...LOWERING CLOSER TO NORMAL AND THEN LOWERING TO BELOW
NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THOUGH JUST HOW LOW IS A BIG QUESTION FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS MAINLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 25K
FEET.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WINDS UNDER 10 KTS MAINLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL
TRENDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA
25K FEET.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

KENNEDY STACHELSKI

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS