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000
FXUS65 KVEF 232216
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
216 PM PST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME...AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FRIDAY
BEFORE FALLING AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERHEAD IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH CLEAR SKIES BELOW 20K FEET. SURFACE OBS
SHOW A MODERATE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT /10 MB BETWEEN KELY
AND KEED/ RESULTING IN LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS...MAXIMIZED IN
AREAS OF FAVORED TERRAIN SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
LEADS INTO THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM. WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN RIGHT ON
THE BORDERLINE OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT
SIMILAR WINDS DOWN THE RIVER...AND HAVE DEPICTED WINDS JUST A HAIR
UNDER LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE GRIDS. IF THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW WINDS ANY STRONGER...LAKE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
THE NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD BE A BIT
LIGHTER THEN WITH GRADIENTS DOWN TO 6-8 MB AND EVEN LESS UPPER
SUPPORT THAN WHAT WAS AVAILABLE TODAY. OTHER THAN THE WIND...A VERY
QUIET SHORT TERM IS IN STORE...WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
.LONG TERM...THE PERIOD BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE START
OF A CHANGE TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES
APPROACHES AND PASSES THE AREA. FRIDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SHALLOWER
OF THE TWO AND WILL BRING SOME POSSIBLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE COME MUCH CLOSER
TOGETHER IN THEIR FORECASTS..WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PROJECTING ALL
ALONG...ESPECIALLY THE SECOND AND STRONGER SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO
DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF OUR
CWA SUNDAY AND BECOME A CLOSED LOW IN THE PROCESS. WITH A PROGGED
TRACK THAT FAR EAST THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
IN NORTHERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY NEAR THE LOWS
TRACK. THE JET ON THE BACK SIDE ALONG WITH THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS TO AT LEAST OUR FAVORED ZONES SUCH AS THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. I HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG NORTH FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE TROUGH/LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND
SPEED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THEY WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
AFTER SUNSET SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS AND THE DIRECTION BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
BEFORE DECREASING WITH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY HAVING THE
STRONGEST WINDS. TUESDAY WILL SEE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN
WITH GUSTY WINDS AGAIN DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR TO VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 231707
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
907 AM PST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME WHILE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER.
THROUGH 9 AM...ALL OBSERVATIONS ARE BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT NOT BY MUCH. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. REST OF
PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...AND NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS INTO THE MID
TWENTIES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING BUT SILL OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FORM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR TO VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. ON AVERAGE...WINDS GUSTS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WILL BE STRONGER IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
345 AM PST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE A
TIGHTENING NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BRING LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. KEPT WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT NAM12 MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
WINDS AT NEEDLES AND BULLHEAD CITY WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY MEET THAT
CRITERIA. OF COURSE THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH LIGHTER. SO..DAY SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING TREND. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING...RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASED
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALL DAY SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. DETAILS ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POOR AGREEMENT...BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS DEFINITELY LEANS TOWARDS
A LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT POPS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND AS THE NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TOO INFREQUENTLY TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAFS.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. ON AVERAGE...WINDS GUSTS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE STRONGER ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
MORGAN/JACQUES/HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 231149 CCA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
345 AM PST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME WHILE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE A
TIGHTENING NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BRING LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. KEPT WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT NAM12 MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
WINDS AT NEEDLES AND BULLHEAD CITY WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY MEET THAT
CRITERIA. OF COURSE THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH LIGHTER. SO..DAY SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING TREND. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING...RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASED
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALL DAY SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. DETAILS ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POOR AGREEMENT...BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS DEFINITELY LEANS TOWARDS
A LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT POPS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND AS THE NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TOO INFREQUENTLY TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAFS.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. ON AVERAGE...WINDS GUSTS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE STRONGER ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 231145
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
345 AM PST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME WHILE GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY BUT WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE A
TIGHTENING NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BRING LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER. KEPT WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT NAM12 MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
WINDS AT NEEDLES AND BULLHEAD CITY WILL AT LEAST BRIEFLY MEET THAT
CRITERIA. OF COURSE THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH LIGHTER. SO..DAY SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING TREND. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING...RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON THANKSGIVING DAY...BUT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASED
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALL DAY SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. DETAILS ARE HARD TO COME BY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW POOR AGREEMENT...BUT OVERALL CONSENSUS DEFINITELY LEANS TOWARDS
A LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SO
HAVE KEPT POPS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND AS THE NORTH/SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE MORNING. GUSTS INTO THE
UPPER TEENS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT TOO INFREQUENTLY TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAFS.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. ON AVERAGE...WINDS GUSTS WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM 15-25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BE STRONGER ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
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000
FXUS65 KLKN 231118
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
318 AM PST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS TO NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT
FRIDAY. &&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY DUE TO THE RECENT
SNOWFALL AND CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL HELP THE RADIATIVE COOLING
PROCESS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BY FRIDAY A
SHORT WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. DISAGREEMENTS CONTINUE
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MODELS ARE ALSO FLIP-FLOPPING AMONG THEMSELVES. THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS THE EURO MODEL WAS THE STRONGEST WHILE THE GFS KEPT MOST
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE REVERSED THIS WITH
THE GFS NOW THE DEEPEST AND THE EURO THE FURTHEST NORTH. THE EURO
SOLUTION WOULD ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NRN
BORDER AREA WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AS FAR SOUTH AS CNTRL NV. NEEDLESS TO SAY VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FCST FOR THIS SYSTEM SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FCST WHICH HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN NV
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. &&
.AVIATION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NRN AND CNTRL NV
TODAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. &&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
96/91/91
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000
FXUS65 KREV 231043
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 AM PST MON NOV 23 2009
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD INLAND OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THRU WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SUN ANGLE WILL
KEEP INVERSION CONDITIONS OVER VALLEYS EACH DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE TAHOE BASIN LIKELY TO EQUAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY EXCEED TEMPS
IN SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS.
AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THRU TUESDAY...THEN
VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.
PATCHY FOG AROUND TRUCKEE IS PROBABLE FOR NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS/MORNINGS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL LIKELY BE
GREATER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO TONIGHT AND TUES NIGHT WHEN
MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH FURTHER LOW LEVEL DRYING IS
EXPECTED. MJD
.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...
AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA MID WEEK SHOULD BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER MODELS INCONSISTENTLY HANDLE THE
TRACK OF ENERGY ENTERING THE WEST COAST AS IT TRIES TO DISLODGE THE
RIDGE.
WARM AND DRY FORECAST FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF
REMAINS SLOWER AND HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS SOLUTION. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST ALONE...BUT THINKING
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN AREAS
FRIDAY.
FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AS A DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS VERY HIGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTH
PACIFIC...AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE PARENT
LOW IN THE BERING SEA.
THIS FACTORS INTO THE PLACEMENT OF A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH SOMEWHERE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN OR HIGH PLAINS. MAIN ISSUES ARE TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. KEPT THE CURRENT
FORECAST GOING...ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST KEEPING THE NEVADA VALLEYS
COOL UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE COLD POOL DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...CURRENT MODELS
PUSH THE COLD POOL WELL EAST OF THE AREA. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST THROUGH THANKSGIVING...WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. ONLY CONCERN IS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO FOG TRUCKEE 08Z-18Z THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR TRAVEL TO START OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS NORTH OF TVL-NFL. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KLKN 230634
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1034 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID
WEEK. THE THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS RETURNS TO NORTHERN NEVADA
NEXT FRIDAY. &&
.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE CLEAR OUT QUICKER THAN EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THE RECENT TROUGH. HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY...REMOVING ALL WORDING OF SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 526 PM /
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AT
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...A STORM SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION. &&
UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER EASTERN ELKO COUNTY THIS EVENING
..THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO COUNTY. OTHERWISE PLAN ON NO
OTHER UPDATES ATTM. &&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 229 PM /
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES
MARCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALES IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NEAR
THE BORDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER WITH SATURATION TO AROUND -16C TO -19C. SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG THE BORDER AREAS. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY...WITH ELKO
AIRPORT GUSTY TO 36 KNOTS AND WINNEMUCCA TO 35 KNOTS EARLIER. A
WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLY AND WILL BE EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS SUCH AS THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...HIGHER ELEVATION SUMMITS...
AND THE WEST WENDOVER AREA.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER TONIGHT...BUT RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE
TONOPAH AREA WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY EXIST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL SEE SLIGHT RISES IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN A BIT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE
LONG TERM FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE DIVERGENCE
IN STRENGTH OF NEXT 500MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH 576 HEIGHT
CONTOUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 50S NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL NV...WITH
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE A WEAK
500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL WAVE STRENGTH SINCE LAST RUN...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT FROM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE ARE FORECASTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF NORTHERN NV...BUT KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
WAY OF TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR FRIDAY AS OF NOW. MODELS DIVERGE BY
SATURDAY WITH ECMWF DIGGING AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE FEATURE AS
OF NOW...BUT EITHER SOLUTION HAS A LOW QPF OUTCOME. THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCE WILL BE A MUCH COLDER WEEKEND...WITH SOME ISOLD MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN CWA IF THE ECWMF IS CORRECT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT THEN MORE SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS ECWMF SOLUTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH LARGE 500MB HEIGHT SPREADS IN ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISHING TO 5-15KTS OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING OF CLEAR SKIES. &&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
$$
96/99
000
FXUS65 KVEF 230512
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
912 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME
WHILE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS INCREASING BETWEEN RENO
AND LAS VEGAS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...THE 00Z NAM
APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FAST WITH NORTH WIND DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEVADA. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR NORTH
WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 MPH PUSHING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE INHERITED FORECAST TRENDS LOOK
OKAY AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AROUND 16Z AND PERSIST THE REST OF THE DAY
AT ABOUT 8-10KTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING LOCAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../314 PM PST SUN NOV 22/...
.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHEAST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LEAVING THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST NORTH WIND WILL HAPPEN DOWN THE OVERTON
ARM...THEN SOUTH FROM HOOVER DAM TO LAKE HAVASU CITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...DIFFERENT DAY SAME CHALLENGES. GUIDANCE FROM MODELS
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE EXTENDED ON THURSDAY STARTS WITH A
CONTINUATION OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE GFS CONTINUES TO
TO BE FASTEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME HINTS OF LESSENING ITS
CONSISTENT TREND OF BEING DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH IT AND FORMING A
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...BUT IT STILL DOES THIS BY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE REST OF THE SPLIT SYSTEMS RACE OFF TO THE
EAST LIKE THE GFS. IN THE MEANWHILE THE GEM SEEMS TO TAKE A BLEND OF
THE TWO IN ITS APPROACH. WENT THIS WAY AS WELL. WILL SHOW A CLOUD
COVER INCREASE SATURDAY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND STILL KEEP GHOST
POPS UP THERE AS WELL. I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL AS
SOME COLD AIR WILL COME IN NO MATTER WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
ADAIR/PIERCE/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 230330 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
730 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
UPR LVL SYSTEM CONTS TO EXIT RGN WITH RDG AND SFC WINDS ON THE
DECREASE. EXPECT WINDS TO CONT DIMINISHING OVRNGT AND GRADIENT WL
TURN MORE ELY AS SFC HI BLDS INTO GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LAYER OF STRATOCU OVR ERN ZNS EXITING WITH
COVERAGE NR THE OR BORDER BEGINNING TO SCATTER. ZNS WERE UPDATED
TO EXPIRE WIND ADVISORY...ADJUST WINDS SLIGHTLY AND LOWER CLOUD
COVERAGE. HOHMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SHORT TERM...
LOW OVER ERN WASHING IS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NW. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
AS WINDS DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS PLUMMET.
RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE FLAT WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TUES. TEMPS IN WRN NV VALLEYS WILL BE COOLER
TOMORROW WITH LESS MIXING AND NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW WHILE MTN
VALLEYS AND RIDGES RESPOND MORE TO WARMING ALOFT. PATTERN PERSISTS
THRU TUE NIGHT WITH COOL TO COLD NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS...BUT MOST
WARMING IN MTNS. COOLED WED TEMPS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS AS H7 TEMPS
NO LONGER WARM FOR MTNS AND LOWER VALLEYS WILL STILL BE UNDER
MODERATE TO STG INVERSION AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD. WALLMANN
LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NA AND A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NA. THE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
HOWEVER AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST LATE ON THANKSGIVING OR THAT NIGHT.
THE EC IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH TO THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE SIERRA
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/INSIDE SLIDER DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL INSIDE SLIDER
FEATURE IS FURTHER WEST...ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS BRINGS A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE SIERRA THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDS
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DISCREPANCIES ARE IN THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY AND WHETHER WE SEE A SECONDARY SHOT BEHIND
IT TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF
DUSTING OF SNOW IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO LASSEN COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WASHOE THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR FRIDAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS FAR NORTH
ON SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EC TYPE SOLUTION WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. KEPT THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND DRY.
THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE VERY MILD AND BREEZY AS WINDS PICK UP WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT WELL IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH WARMING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE NEAR 60 DEGREE HIGHS FORECAST FOR RENO-CARSON WITH MID 50S IN
THE TAHOE BASIN AND AT MAMMOTH BUT COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.
FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AS STRONG INVERSIONS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT UNDER RIDGE ALOFT WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS
ALONG WITH A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS RELATIVELY COOL.
JAH
AVIATION...
RIDGE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
LIKEWISE VALLEY WINDS AND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BECOMING
LIGHT ALL TAF SITES BY 02Z.
KLOL AND KRNO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY MONDAY UP TO 10KTS WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS TUESDAY.
KTVL AND KTRK...BKN CIGS 035-040 WITH PARTIAL MTN OBSCUREMENT
THROUGH 02Z...THEN LOWER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR WITH SOME SCATTERED MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT KTRK TO GO DOWN TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG AFTER 09Z BECOMING VFR BY 18Z. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. JAH
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KLKN 230126
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
526 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT. FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AT
OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...A STORM SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION. &&
.UPDATE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER EASTERN ELKO COUNTY THIS EVENING
...THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO COUNTY. OTHERWISE PLAN ON NO
OTHER UPDATES ATTM. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 229 PM /
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES
MARCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALES IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NEAR
THE BORDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER WITH SATURATION TO AROUND -16C TO -19C. SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG THE BORDER AREAS. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY...WITH ELKO
AIRPORT GUSTY TO 36 KNOTS AND WINNEMUCCA TO 35 KNOTS EARLIER. A
WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLY AND WILL BE EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS SUCH AS THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...HIGHER ELEVATION SUMMITS...
AND THE WEST WENDOVER AREA.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER TONIGHT...BUT RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE
TONOPAH AREA WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY EXIST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL SEE SLIGHT RISES IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN A BIT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE
LONG TERM FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE DIVERGENCE
IN STRENGTH OF NEXT 500MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH 576 HEIGHT
CONTOUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 50S NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL NV...WITH
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE A WEAK
500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL WAVE STRENGTH SINCE LAST RUN...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT FROM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE ARE FORECASTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF NORTHERN NV...BUT KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
WAY OF TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR FRIDAY AS OF NOW. MODELS DIVERGE BY
SATURDAY WITH ECMWF DIGGING AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE FEATURE AS
OF NOW...BUT EITHER SOLUTION HAS A LOW QPF OUTCOME. THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCE WILL BE A MUCH COLDER WEEKEND...WITH SOME ISOLD MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN CWA IF THE ECWMF IS CORRECT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT THEN MORE SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS ECWMF SOLUTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH LARGE 500MB HEIGHT SPREADS IN ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISHING TO 5-15KTS OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING OF CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
87/99/84
000
FXUS65 KVEF 222314
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
314 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME
WHILE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE CLIPPING NORTHEAST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LEAVING THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST NORTH WIND WILL HAPPEN DOWN THE OVERTON
ARM...THEN SOUTH FROM HOOVER DAM TO LAKE HAVASU CITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...DIFFERENT DAY SAME CHALLENGES. GUIDANCE FROM MODELS
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE EXTENDED ON THURSDAY STARTS WITH A
CONTINUATION OF RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS THE GFS CONTINUES TO
TO BE FASTEST WITH THE SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME HITS OF LESSENING ITS
CONSISTENT TREND OF BEING DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH IT AND FORMING A
CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES...BUT IT STILL DOES THIS BY
SUNDAY MORNING WHILE THE REST OF THE SPLIT SYSTEMS RACES OFF TO THE
EAST LIKE THE GFS. IN THE MEANWHILE THE GEM SEEMS TO TAKE A BLEND OF
THE TWO IN ITS APPROACH. WENT THIS WAY AS WELL. WILL SHOW A CLOUD
COVER INCREASE SATURDAY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND STILL KEEP GHOST
POPS UP THERE AS WELL. I DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL AS
SOME COLD AIR WILL COME IN NO MATTER WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL WILL CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL ABOUT 04Z WHERE THE USUAL
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GO FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 16Z AND STAY
THERE THE REST OF THE DAY AT ABOUT 8-10KTS. THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL PERSIST UNTIL ABOUT 18-20Z MONDAY BEFORE GOING SCATTERED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING LOCAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 222229
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
229 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STRONG
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE WEEK...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...A STORM
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO THE
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT CONTINUES
MARCHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AT THIS TIME. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALES IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NEAR
THE BORDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER WITH SATURATION TO AROUND -16C TO -19C. SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG THE BORDER AREAS. WINDS ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY...WITH ELKO
AIRPORT GUSTY TO 36 KNOTS AND WINNEMUCCA TO 35 KNOTS EARLIER. A
WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLY AND WILL BE EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS SUCH AS THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...HIGHER ELEVATION SUMMITS...
AND THE WEST WENDOVER AREA.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER TONIGHT...BUT RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE
TONOPAH AREA WHERE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY EXIST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION. WILL SEE SLIGHT RISES IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN A BIT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE
LONG TERM FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE DIVERGENCE
IN STRENGTH OF NEXT 500MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THANKSGIVING LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH 576 HEIGHT
CONTOUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 50S NORTH AND NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL NV...WITH
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE A WEAK
500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE INITIAL WAVE STRENGTH SINCE LAST RUN...WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT FROM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. BEST DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE ARE FORECASTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF NORTHERN NV...BUT KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
WAY OF TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR FRIDAY AS OF NOW. MODELS DIVERGE BY
SATURDAY WITH ECMWF DIGGING AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS HAS A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE FEATURE AS
OF NOW...BUT EITHER SOLUTION HAS A LOW QPF OUTCOME. THE LARGEST
DIFFERENCE WILL BE A MUCH COLDER WEEKEND...WITH SOME ISOLD MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN CWA IF THE ECWMF IS CORRECT. IF THE GFS IS
CORRECT THEN MORE SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS ECWMF SOLUTION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH LARGE 500MB HEIGHT SPREADS IN ENSEMBLES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT TAF TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z. COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KTPH...BUT FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL OCCUR BY 00Z. WINDS WILL VARY FROM 310-340 AND GUST TO
30KTS UNTIL 03Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KEKO WILL END BY 03Z...WITH 5K CEILINGS
SCATTERING OUT BY 05Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AFT 12Z.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ031>034.
&&
$$
86/95/95
000
FXUS65 KREV 222148
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
148 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...
LOW OVER ERN WASHING IS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD AND WINDS ALOFT ARE
STARTING TO DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NW. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE
TO DECREASE AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES MOST OF THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
AS WINDS DIE OFF BY MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS PLUMMET.
RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE FLAT WITH A FEW MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TUES. TEMPS IN WRN NV VALLEYS WILL BE COOLER
TOMORROW WITH LESS MIXING AND NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW WHILE MTN
VALLEYS AND RIDGES RESPOND MORE TO WARMING ALOFT. PATTERN PERSISTS
THRU TUE NIGHT WITH COOL TO COLD NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS...BUT MOST
WARMING IN MTNS. COOLED WED TEMPS...ESPECIALLY VALLEYS AS H7 TEMPS
NO LONGER WARM FOR MTNS AND LOWER VALLEYS WILL STILL BE UNDER
MODERATE TO STG INVERSION AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD. WALLMANN
.LONG TERM...THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW FEATURES A STRONGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEEP FULL LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NA AND A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL NA. THE PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE
HOWEVER AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST LATE ON THANKSGIVING OR THAT NIGHT.
THE EC IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND BRINGS A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH TO THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE SIERRA
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/INSIDE SLIDER DROPPING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL INSIDE SLIDER
FEATURE IS FURTHER WEST...ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS BRINGS A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE SIERRA THURSDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY BUILDS
ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN DISCREPANCIES ARE IN THE TIMING OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY AND WHETHER WE SEE A SECONDARY SHOT BEHIND
IT TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE ANOTHER BRIEF
DUSTING OF SNOW IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO LASSEN COUNTY AND
NORTHERN WASHOE THURSDAY NIGHT AND GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 FOR FRIDAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS FAR NORTH
ON SATURDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EC TYPE SOLUTION WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. KEPT THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND DRY.
THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE VERY MILD AND BREEZY AS WINDS PICK UP WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MIX OUT WELL IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS...WITH WARMING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY WE
HAVE NEAR 60 DEGREE HIGHS FORECAST FOR RENO-CARSON WITH MID 50S IN
THE TAHOE BASIN AND AT MAMMOTH BUT COULD EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.
FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AS STRONG INVERSIONS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT UNDER RIDGE ALOFT WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS
ALONG WITH A COOL NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND WILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS RELATIVELY COOL.
JAH
&&
.AVIATION...
RIDGE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
LIKEWISE VALLEY WINDS AND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BECOMING
LIGHT ALL TAF SITES BY 02Z.
KLOL AND KRNO...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY MONDAY UP TO 10KTS WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS TUESDAY.
KTVL AND KTRK...BKN CIGS 035-040 WITH PARTIAL MTN OBSCUREMENT
THROUGH 02Z...THEN LOWER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR WITH SOME SCATTERED MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT KTRK TO GO DOWN TO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FZFG AFTER 09Z BECOMING VFR BY 18Z. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. JAH
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002-004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 221731 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME
WHILE LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE SKY TODAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHERN NEVADA. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL STAY NORTH OF I-80. RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
CONSISTENT IN BUILDING A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT OR LESS THAN 10
MPH WILL OCCUR AREAWIDE WHILE STRONGER NORTH BREEZES WILL OCCUR DOWN
THE OVERTON ARM THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER TO LAKE HAVASU
CITY THROUGH MIDWEEK. NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM PST SUN NOV 22...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IDAHO AND INTO WYOMING LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUESDAY BUT SOME
NORTHERLY BREEZES MAY LINGER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...MAYBE TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPACT HE
REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO UNLESS MODELS BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER
SOLUTION...NO ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING LOCAL DIURNAL PATTERNS...AND FEW
TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 221652
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
852 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST WINDS WHICH HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP IN MANY
AREAS. STRONGEST WINDS IN FOOTHILLS WITH TRAPPED LEE WAVES IN WAKE
OF MTNS WHICH SHOW UP WELL ON SAT IMAGERY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
STRONGER WINDS THAN ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN FOOTHILLS ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. VALLEY LOCATIONS LOOKS TO
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SO HAVE ADJUSTED THEM UPWARD A BIT TOO. STILL
LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVY CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR LAKES
WHICH ARE ALREADY HANDLED.
PCPN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND ONLY REALLY SEEING SOME UPSLOPE
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OS
SUSANVILLE/GERLACH. CURRENT FCST HAS THESE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY IN
A COUPLE HRS AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. NO CHANGES OTHER THAN
WINDS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES/REC SENT. UPDATED WAVE GRIDS FOR LAKES
OUT SHORTLY. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009/
SHORT TERM...
COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WITH 130+ JET CORE AT 300 MB HAS
MOVED INLAND OVER THE PAC NW STATES. A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS NWRN CA IS EXPECTED TO REACH NERN CA AND NWRN NV
BY DAYBREAK...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FORMING NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE AROUND THE SAME TIME. MOST OF THESE AREAS
WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF CEDARVILLE OR NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. THE
LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END BY LATE THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES.
THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS TODAY ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 700 MB FLOW NEAR 50
KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU LATE MORNING THEN DROP OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME RIDGE GUST POTENTIAL OVER 80 MPH
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MIXING OF THESE WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL OR
GREATER WINDS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND BY THE
TIME MIXING CONDITIONS IMPROVE...THE WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 40 KT. THE END RESULT WILL BE A BREEZY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES IN AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT NOT A REPEAT OF THE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT
WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. LAKE WATERS WILL BECOME CHOPPY ENOUGH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. TEMPS WILL INCREASE TODAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE IMPROVED MIXING...AND IF CLOUD COVERAGE IS
THIN ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON SOME VALLEYS IN WRN NV COULD EVEN MAKE
A BRIEF PUSH ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WHILE
CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. TEMPS WILL DROP RAPIDLY AND
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
FOG IN THE TRUCKEE AREA INCLUDING ADJACENT PORTIONS OF I-80 LATE
TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING.
FOR MON-TUES...RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO
THE WRN US...WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NV
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE VALUES EXPECTED IN THE TAHOE BASIN BOTH
DAYS...GENERALLY NEAR 50 DEGREES. MJD
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA MID WEEK TO KEEP
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THE START OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME IN A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE WEST COAST LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A
FASTER SOLUTION. AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST
AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST GENERALLY FAVORS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
ENERGY INTO THE WEST COAST. POSSIBLE THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
THE BIAS OF BREAKING DOWN A RIDGE TO QUICKLY IN THE BLOCKING TYPE
PATTERN.
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 AS WINDS SCOUR OUT THE LOWER VALLEYS. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. OVERALL THE PATTERN IN BOTH
MODELS FEATURES A VERY DEEP LOW IN THE BERING SEA...EJECTING ENERGY
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARD THE WEST COAST. KEY HERE IS THE
VERY DEEP LOW AND COLD AIR THAT BREAKS OFF WITH EACH PIECE OF
ENERGY.
ONE PIECE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/S SYSTEM. GFS HAS A MORE
NORTHERLY AND DRIER TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT DEPENDING ON
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW AND MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...BUT SEEM TO AGREE ON A
COLD NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE BERING
SEA...FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE GREAT BASIN. THUS DID
LOWER HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. BRONG
AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OREGON WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS.
WINDS INCREASING IN THE SIERRA WITH RIDGE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH
50-60 KTS FROM TAHOE NORTH BY LATE MORNING. PEAK WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF 30-40 KTS NORTH OF BRIDGEPORT CA-FALLON
NV. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KREV 221124
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
324 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...
COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WITH 130+ JET CORE AT 300 MB HAS
MOVED INLAND OVER THE PAC NW STATES. A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS NWRN CA IS EXPECTED TO REACH NERN CA AND NWRN NV
BY DAYBREAK...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FORMING NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE AROUND THE SAME TIME. MOST OF THESE AREAS
WILL BE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW
MIX...BUT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH IN
A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF CEDARVILLE OR NEAR THE SIERRA CREST. THE
LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END BY LATE THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EAST TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES.
THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS TODAY ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 700 MB FLOW NEAR 50
KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU LATE MORNING THEN DROP OFF IN THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOME RIDGE GUST POTENTIAL OVER 80 MPH
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MIXING OF THESE WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE EFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL OR
GREATER WINDS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING...AND BY THE
TIME MIXING CONDITIONS IMPROVE...THE WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 40 KT. THE END RESULT WILL BE A BREEZY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES IN AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...BUT NOT A REPEAT OF THE WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT
WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. LAKE WATERS WILL BECOME CHOPPY ENOUGH BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TO JUSTIFY THE CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. TEMPS WILL INCREASE TODAY IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE IMPROVED MIXING...AND IF CLOUD COVERAGE IS
THIN ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON SOME VALLEYS IN WRN NV COULD EVEN MAKE
A BRIEF PUSH ABOVE 60 DEGREES.
BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING WHILE
CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. TEMPS WILL DROP RAPIDLY AND
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING
FOG IN THE TRUCKEE AREA INCLUDING ADJACENT PORTIONS OF I-80 LATE
TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING.
FOR MON-TUES...RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO
THE WRN US...WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WRN NV
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE VALUES EXPECTED IN THE TAHOE BASIN BOTH
DAYS...GENERALLY NEAR 50 DEGREES. MJD
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA MID WEEK TO KEEP
CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY FOR THE START OF THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.
ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME IN A BIT SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
THE WEST COAST LATE THIS WEEK...THOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A
FASTER SOLUTION. AMPLIFIED PATTERN DUE TO DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST
AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST GENERALLY FAVORS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
ENERGY INTO THE WEST COAST. POSSIBLE THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
THE BIAS OF BREAKING DOWN A RIDGE TO QUICKLY IN THE BLOCKING TYPE
PATTERN.
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AND BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80 AS WINDS SCOUR OUT THE LOWER VALLEYS. CERTAINLY SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MODELS INDICATING
10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. OVERALL THE PATTERN IN BOTH
MODELS FEATURES A VERY DEEP LOW IN THE BERING SEA...EJECTING ENERGY
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARD THE WEST COAST. KEY HERE IS THE
VERY DEEP LOW AND COLD AIR THAT BREAKS OFF WITH EACH PIECE OF
ENERGY.
ONE PIECE WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY/S SYSTEM. GFS HAS A MORE
NORTHERLY AND DRIER TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH RAIN/SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT DEPENDING ON
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW AND MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...BUT SEEM TO AGREE ON A
COLD NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE STRONG NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER THE BERING
SEA...FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE GREAT BASIN. THUS DID
LOWER HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY. BRONG
&&
.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OREGON WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCUREMENTS.
WINDS INCREASING IN THE SIERRA WITH RIDGE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH
50-60 KTS FROM TAHOE NORTH BY LATE MORNING. PEAK WIND GUSTS IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF 30-40 KTS NORTH OF BRIDGEPORT CA-FALLON
NV. BRONG
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
000
FXUS65 KVEF 221120
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
320 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME
WHILE LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH IDAHO AND INTO WYOMING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUESDAY BUT SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES MAY LINGER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...MAYBE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPACT HE
REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO UNLESS MODELS BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER
SOLUTION...NO ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER AN LIGHT WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING LOCAL DIURNAL PATTERNS...AND FEW
TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 221120
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
320 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY...FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. &&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. SURFACE GRADIENT
IS NOTHING SPECIAL TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG WINDS UNDER A 105KT JET
WILL MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE AND PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ELKO COUNTY...AND
ALSO ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH AS
IN RUBY AND CLOVER VALLEYS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN ELKO COUNTY.
TODAYS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO
THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INDEPENDENCE AND JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MAY ALSO SEE
A FLURRY OR TWO IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
TROUGH EJECTS EAST INTO UTAH TONIGHT...WITH A COOL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AS H7 TEMPS LOWER TO -9 TO -14 C. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO KICK
OFF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST NORTH JUST BRUSHING NRN NV FRIDAY WHILE THE EURO/GEM MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WAVE. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
ALSO FURTHER SOUTH. CURRENT FCST ALREADY REFLECTS THE DEEPER EURO/GEM
SOLUTION INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS NRN NV.
THE EURO ALSO DIGS THIS WAVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN NV SATURDAY WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS IN A SECOND SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA SO
CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ERN NV. &&
.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NRN NV TODAY BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CIGS AOA 5000 FT AGL. &&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR NVZ031>034.
&&
$$
96/91/91
000
FXUS65 KVEF 221120
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
320 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME
WHILE LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH IDAHO AND INTO WYOMING LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENT OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX TUESDAY BUT SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES MAY LINGER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...MAYBE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...UNTIL AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPACT HE
REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO UNLESS MODELS BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS A DEEPER
SOLUTION...NO ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER AN LIGHT WINDS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING LOCAL DIURNAL PATTERNS...AND FEW
TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
HARRISON/KENNEDY
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 221120
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
320 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY...FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. &&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. SURFACE GRADIENT
IS NOTHING SPECIAL TODAY...HOWEVER STRONG WINDS UNDER A 105KT JET
WILL MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE AND PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN ELKO COUNTY...AND
ALSO ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH AS
IN RUBY AND CLOVER VALLEYS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN ELKO COUNTY.
TODAYS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOWFALL TO
THE MOUNTAINS OF HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INDEPENDENCE AND JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MAY ALSO SEE
A FLURRY OR TWO IN VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
TROUGH EJECTS EAST INTO UTAH TONIGHT...WITH A COOL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA
DROPPING BELOW NORMAL AS H7 TEMPS LOWER TO -9 TO -14 C. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO KICK
OFF A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THE GFS IS THE
FURTHEST NORTH JUST BRUSHING NRN NV FRIDAY WHILE THE EURO/GEM MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS WAVE. MOST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
ALSO FURTHER SOUTH. CURRENT FCST ALREADY REFLECTS THE DEEPER EURO/GEM
SOLUTION INDICATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS NRN NV.
THE EURO ALSO DIGS THIS WAVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN NV SATURDAY WHILE THE
GFS BRINGS IN A SECOND SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA SO
CONTINUED WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ERN NV. &&
.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NRN NV TODAY BRINGING A
FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR THE OREGON/IDAHO BORDER. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CIGS AOA 5000 FT AGL. &&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
FOR NVZ031>034.
&&
$$
96/91/91
000
FXUS65 KVEF 220447 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
847 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME WHILE
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING. ALL THE POTENTIAL ACTION
IS FAR IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NIGHT TIME SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST
UNDER 8 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INCREASING ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW LOCAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SCT TO BKN CIRRUS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...318 PM PST...
.SHORT TERM...ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. AN
INCREASING NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO NORTH
BREEZES MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT TIMES WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THANKSGIVING...AND AGAIN ONLY SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND FOR A
WARM UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER OR WINDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO PART WAYS
WITH THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EC AND GEM
CONTINUES TO BRING IN A DEEPER TROUGH WHILE THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEAN KEEP IT SHALLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH. FOR
NOW JUST KEPT IN THE CLIMO POPS. IF THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WILL
LIKELY GO TOWARDS THE DEEPER SOLUTION AND HENCE LOWER TEMPERATURES
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING WINDS AND POPS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
SALMEN/PIERCE/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KVEF 220442 AAA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
842 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME WHILE
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS EVENING. ALL THE POTENTIAL ACTION
IS FAR IN THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NIGHT TIME SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS UNDER
10 KNOTS. LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY MORNING BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST
UNDER 8 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
INCREASING ON SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW LOCAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SCT TO BKN CIRRUS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...318 PM PST...
.SHORT TERM...ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. AN
INCREASING NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO NORTH
BREEZES MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT TIMES WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WITHING A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THANKSGIVING...AND AGAIN ONLY SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND FOR A
WARM UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER OR WINDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO PART WAYS
WITH THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EC AND GEM
CONTINUES TO BRING IN A DEEPER TROUGH WHILE THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEAN KEEP IT SHALLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH. FOR
NOW JUST KEPT IN THE CLIMO POPS. IF THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WILL
LIKELY GO TOWARDS THE DEEPER SOLUTION AND HENCE LOWER TEMPERATURES
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...INCREASE WINDS AND POPS.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
SALMEN/PIERCE/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KLKN 220202
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY...FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. &&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ANY ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NE NV WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIP POSSIBLE IN VALLEY
AREAS.
WINDS WILL BE A BIGGER CONCERN ON SUNDAY AS A 100+KT JET BRUSHES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION WRFARW MODEL SHOWING WINDS OVER AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEVADA BECOMING VERY WINDY...WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 55-65 MPH IN PLACES LIKE RUBY VALLEY AND CLOVER
VALLEY.
WINDS AND PRECIP OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...KICKING OFF OFF A LONG STRETCH OF DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MID-WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STORM SYSTEM IMPINGING UPON THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
EXTENDED DURING THE PERIOD AS MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STILL QUITE
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD TONIGHT...WITH LCL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ELKO COUNTY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST NEVADA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH OF A
KU31-KP68-KELY LINE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4500-5500
FEET...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
99/86/86
000
FXUS65 KVEF 212318
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
318 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME WHILE
LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. AN
INCREASING NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO NORTH
BREEZES MAINLY DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AT TIMES WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING WITHING A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THANKSGIVING...AND AGAIN ONLY SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR A RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND FOR A
WARM UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER OR WINDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO PART WAYS
WITH THE NEXT WAVE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE EC AND GEM
CONTINUES TO BRING IN A DEEPER TROUGH WHILE THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MEAN KEEP IT SHALLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH. FOR
NOW JUST KEPT IN THE CLIMO POPS. IF THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WILL
LIKELY GO TOWARDS THE DEEPER SOLUTION AND HENCE LOWER TEMPERATURES
THE END OF NEXT WEEK...INCREASE WINDS AND POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT
02Z AND THEN THE USUAL NIGHT TIME SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...ALL
UNDER 10 KNOTS. SUNDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED AND
ABOVE 20KFT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL FOLLOW LOCAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
000
FXUS65 KREV 212259
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE IN TONIGHT IS JUST OFF THE COAST WITH CLOUD
SHIELD ONTO NW CA. SYSTEM IS POTENT AND SMALL...BUT WILL DEAL JUST
A GLANCING BLOW TO THE AREA AS IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OR/WA.
DECENT AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH AFTER
06Z SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50/60 PCT ACROSS THESE AREAS.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND PCPN ALMOST ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW
DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. PROG SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW NEAR
ISOTHERMAL TEMP PROFILE THROUGH 15Z. COLD FRONT WITH SYSTEM JUST
GLANCES THE AREA SUN MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS FOR
ANOTHER 6 HRS THRU MID-MORNING. BY THEN...MOISTURE AND FORCING
WITH SYSTEM WILL HAVE RACED EWD.
700 MB WINDS ALSO INCREASE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER TO NEAR 60 KTS
BY 12Z. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
MIXING THESE TO SFC OR FOR MTN WAVES. AS PROFILE IMPROVES BY
18Z...WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR 35-40 KTS ACROSS MANY AREAS NORTH OF
HWY 50. EXPECT A BREEZY DAY TOMORROW MOST AREAS WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 35-40 MPH...BUT NOTHING LIKE FRIDAY. HOISTED LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR TAHOE/PYRAMID WHICH SHOULD BE A BIT CHOPPY WITH THE
WINDS AND WAVES AS HIGH AS 3 FEET.
BEHIND SYSTEM...RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR MON/TUE. RIDGE IS FAIRLY FLAT
SO IT WILL BE DIRTY WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
AT TIMES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN VALLEYS
WITH GOOD MIXING TOMORRW BECOMING POOR BY MON WITH LIGHT NE SFC
WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. MTNS WILL SEE BETTER MIXING AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WALLMANN
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGE INTACT FOR MIDWEEK IN QUITE AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA. BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST.
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER. THE LATEST EC BRINGS A
STRONGER AND COLDER SHORTWAVE TO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A SLOWER
SOLUTION WITH A SHALLOWER SHORTWAVE. THE EC WOULD POINT TO SHOWERS
FROM TAHOE AND I-80 NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
INSIDE SLIDER TYPE IMPULSE REINFORCING THE COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY.
THE LATEST GFS AND ENSEMBLES JUST GENERATE A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA FRIDAY WITH DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE 06Z GFS RUN ALSO INDICATED AN
INSIDE SLIDER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MUCH LIKE THE LATEST EC...SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODELS RUNS FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FOR
THANKSGIVING NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER THANKSGIVING IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN
AS MENTIONED ABOVE BUT WILL LEAVE THAT PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT
INVERSIONS...WHILE RIDGES WILL WARM MORE UNDER RIDGE. ALSO
ANTICIPATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. JAH
&&
.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE SIERRA WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCUREMENT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH RIDGE WINDS 50-60KTS FROM
TAHOE NORTH. VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM RENO NORTH WILL SEE GUSTS TO
30KTS AFTER 18Z SUNDAY. JAH
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ072.
&&
$$
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO
| 
