[top]
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240430
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PROVIDED THE FINE WEATHER TO OUR REGION TODAY
WILL RETREAT INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND IT WILL STAY QUITE MILD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND TRANSFER
ITS ENERGY TO ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN AND WET SNOW FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL SATELLITE DISPLAYS SHOW A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN
PA...WITH BOTH THIS SHORTWAVE AND AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
LEADING TO A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
THIS MOISTURE...IT IS ALSO GENERATING A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS OVER NW PA INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RATHER DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH REPORTED HERE AND THERE.
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE PRECIP
LIFTING NORTHEAST CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN EARLIER INDICATED...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NOW BRINGING THESE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND MIDDLE/LOWER GENESEE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO UPPED
POPS A BIT FROM CONTINUITY BASED ON RADAR RETURNS...THOUGH HAVE
KEPT THESE CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE OWING TO THE RATHER LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIP SO FAR...AND THE FACT THAT THIS SHOULD TEND
TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR RATHER DRY AIRMASS.
HAVE ALSO UPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 2-3 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON CURRENTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
THE ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP
A BIT MORE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCO FOLLOWS BELOW...
A NARROW BAND OF SUNNY SKIES ARE THE REFLECTION OF A BLOCKING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDES THROUGH THE RIDGE. WHEREAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS...THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FADES DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING RETURNS. WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS FROM ABOUT ROUTE 20A
SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NY TO OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF NORTHWARD EXCLUDING THE COUNTIES
ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO EXCLUDING
MOST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. NAM12 QPF OFFERS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
THE TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT HOLD UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE BLANKET OF
CLOUDS...WITH SOME SPOTS AT FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE LATER TO COVER THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE
COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
HOLD TIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD.
ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM
HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S
WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE
WARMING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE... WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO
SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY
END UP BEING RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON
THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COLDER AIR
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING THEREAFTER. A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OR EASTERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...BUT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. ONE MAJOR ONE IS THE
SHIFT WESTWARD IN ALL THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE
OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A DECENT PRECIP SHIELD FOR THURS NT AND FRI.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC TAKE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ACROSS ERN OHIO AND PA TO NJ...WHICH WOULD PLACE OUR AREA
UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE SWINGING IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC...WITH COLDER AIR (-6 TO -8C 850 MB) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MILDER AIR WRAPPING IN
FROM THE EAST (-1 TO -2C/850) ACROSS LK ONTARIO INTO MUCH OF OUR AREA.
THIS WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR LOW ELEVATIONS FURTHER
NORTH AND A MIX OF WET SNOW THREAT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVS TOWARD THE PA
LINE. POTENTIAL QPF COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH. THE
ECMWF IS A GOOD 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH ALL THIS...WITH BULK OF
HEAVIEST QPF IN 00Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...RAIN EVENTUALLY ENDING
AS WET SNOW OR A MIX...GFS WOULD BE LATER...RAIN LATER FRI INTO FRI
NT AND MIXING AS IT ENDS LATE FRI NT/SAT AM. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS THURS NT THROUGH FRI NT. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF HEAVY
SNOW IN PA/WVA AND RAIN IN MUCH OF NY STATE...BUT STAY TUNED.
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN WRAPAROUND ON SAT...WILL GO WITH CHC
POPS ALL AREAS...LIKELY SE OF LAKES IN UPSLOPE. DRIER WX FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASBL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK
STATE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE PASSING OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING INTO THE HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR RANGE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THIS FEED OF MOISTURE...IT WILL TOUCH OFF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AVIATION. AS SUCH...HAVE
JUST CONTINUED WITH A MENTION OF VCSH TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING RATHER WEAK...THIS WILL HELP TO TRAP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...AVIATION INTERESTS CAN EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND CREATE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION WELL OFFSHORE AND
ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT
THREAT FOR MARINE FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
PASSES UP TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY OVER TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND
NOV 8 ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL
BE LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT
ROC. THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ARE
DEC 3 1899 AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH
THOSE DATES AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT
BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE EITHER BUFFALO OR
ROCHESTER LAST SAW MEASURABLE SNOW. THROUGH TODAY, BUFFALO HAS
GONE 229 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR SINCE APRIL 7, 2009.
THIS IS THE 6TH LONGEST STRETCH IN 125 YEARS OF RECORDS. THE
RECORD IS 245 DAYS SET BACK IN 1948. ROCHESTER IS ALSO AT 229 DAYS
WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR THE 7TH LONGEST STRETCH THERE. THE
RECORD IS 260 DAYS SET BACK IN 1952. IF WE REMAIN SNOW FREE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING, BOTH ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO WILL END UP WITH
THE THIRD LONGEST STRETCH OF SNOW FREE DAYS ON RECORD. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SFM
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SFM/WCH
CLIMATE...SFM
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240335
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PROVIDED THE FINE WEATHER TO OUR REGION TODAY
WILL RETREAT INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND IT WILL STAY QUITE MILD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND TRANSFER
ITS ENERGY TO ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN AND WET SNOW FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 1030 PM...REGIONAL SATELLITE DISPLAYS SHOW A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO AND WESTERN
PA...WITH BOTH THIS SHORTWAVE AND AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
LEADING TO A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH
THIS MOISTURE...IT IS ALSO GENERATING A FAIRLY NARROW SWATH OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS OVER NW PA INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THIS
ACTVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RATHER DRY
AIRMASS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH REPORTED HERE AND THERE.
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE PRECIP
LIFTING NORTHEAST CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN EARLIER INDICATED...HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...NOW BRINGING THESE INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND MIDDLE/LOWER GENESEE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO UPPED
POPS A BIT FROM CONTINUITY BASED ON RADAR RETURNS...THOUGH HAVE
KEPT THESE CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE OWING TO THE RATHER LIGHT
NATURE OF THE PRECIP SO FAR...AND THE FACT THAT THIS SHOULD TEND
TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH INTO OUR RATHER DRY AIRMASS.
HAVE ALSO UPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME 2-3 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
BASED ON CURRENTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
THE ADVANCING CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO HOLD READINGS UP
A BIT MORE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR TERM DISCO FOLLOWS BELOW...
A NARROW BAND OF SUNNY SKIES ARE THE REFLECTION OF A BLOCKING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDES THROUGH THE RIDGE. WHEREAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS...THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FADES DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING RETURNS. WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS FROM ABOUT ROUTE 20A
SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NY TO OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF NORTHWARD EXCLUDING THE COUNTIES
ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO EXCLUDING
MOST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. NAM12 QPF OFFERS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
THE TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT HOLD UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE BLANKET OF
CLOUDS...WITH SOME SPOTS AT FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE LATER TO COVER THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE
COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
HOLD TIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD.
ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM
HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S
WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE
WARMING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE... WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO
SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY
END UP BEING RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON
THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COLDER AIR
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING THEREAFTER. A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OR EASTERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...BUT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. ONE MAJOR ONE IS THE
SHIFT WESTWARD IN ALL THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE
OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A DECENT PRECIP SHIELD FOR THURS NT AND FRI.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC TAKE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ACROSS ERN OHIO AND PA TO NJ...WHICH WOULD PLACE OUR AREA
UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE SWINGING IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC...WITH COLDER AIR (-6 TO -8C 850 MB) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MILDER AIR WRAPPING IN
FROM THE EAST (-1 TO -2C/850) ACROSS LK ONTARIO INTO MUCH OF OUR AREA.
THIS WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR LOW ELEVATIONS FURTHER
NORTH AND A MIX OF WET SNOW THREAT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVS TOWARD THE PA
LINE. POTENTIAL QPF COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH. THE
ECMWF IS A GOOD 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH ALL THIS...WITH BULK OF
HEAVIEST QPF IN 00Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...RAIN EVENTUALLY ENDING
AS WET SNOW OR A MIX...GFS WOULD BE LATER...RAIN LATER FRI INTO FRI
NT AND MIXING AS IT ENDS LATE FRI NT/SAT AM. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS THURS NT THROUGH FRI NT. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF HEAVY
SNOW IN PA/WVA AND RAIN IN MUCH OF NY STATE...BUT STAY TUNED.
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN WRAPAROUND ON SAT...WILL GO WITH CHC
POPS ALL AREAS...LIKELY SE OF LAKES IN UPSLOPE. DRIER WX FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASBL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK
STATE TONIGHT...BEFORE PASSING OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THICKENING AND LOWERING INTO THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...ALREADY-
ESTABLISHED MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
KBUF-KIAG CORRIDOR POSSIBLY ALSO SEEING A DETERIORATION TO MVFR
LATER ON IN THE NIGHT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THIS FEED OF MOISTURE...IT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AVIATION. AS
SUCH...HAVE JUST CONTINUED WITH A MENTION OF VCSH AT THE
WESTERNMOST TAF SITES TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING RATHER WEAK...THIS WILL HELP TO TRAP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...AVIATION INTERESTS CAN EXPECT MVFR TO LOW- END VFR
CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND CREATE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION WELL OFFSHORE AND
ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT
THREAT FOR MARINE FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
PASSES UP TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY OVER TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND
NOV 8 ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL
BE LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT
ROC. THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ARE
DEC 3 1899 AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH
THOSE DATES AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT
BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE EITHER BUFFALO OR
ROCHESTER LAST SAW MEASURABLE SNOW. THROUGH TODAY, BUFFALO HAS
GONE 229 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR SINCE APRIL 7, 2009.
THIS IS THE 6TH LONGEST STRETCH IN 125 YEARS OF RECORDS. THE
RECORD IS 245 DAYS SET BACK IN 1948. ROCHESTER IS ALSO AT 229 DAYS
WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR THE 7TH LONGEST STRETCH THERE. THE
RECORD IS 260 DAYS SET BACK IN 1952. IF WE REMAIN SNOW FREE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING, BOTH ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO WILL END UP WITH
THE THIRD LONGEST STRETCH OF SNOW FREE DAYS ON RECORD. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SFM
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SFM/WCH
CLIMATE...SFM
[top]
000
FXUS61 KBTV 240317
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1017 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF MARITIME ORIGIN...WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A TREND TOWARD INCLEMENT AND POSSIBLY WINTRY WEATHER WILL
OCCUR BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EST MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MARITIME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWWD
THRU THE SRN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...ADIRONDACKS...AND PORTIONS OF ERN
VT. MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS INDICATING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN VT NWD TO NEAR KRUT. CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z
GFS...HAVE INDICATED THAT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NWD
ACROSS VT OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE SERN PORTION OF OUR ADIRONDACK
ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...HIGHEST ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES AT 40-50 PERCENT AND ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT AT
KBTV/K1V4. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OR THE
DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. ANY QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT
IT ONLY TAKES A MINIMUM ICE ACCUMULATION TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. HAVE
INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -ZR IN THE GRIDS...BUT ONLY FOR
LIMITED PORTIONS OF NERN VT/ADIRONDACK VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE...CLOUD
COVER IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND THAT SHOULD HOLD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH NELY FLOW AND
SATURATED CONDITIONS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM EST MONDAY...SFC HIGH...ALBEIT IN WEAKER FORM...THEN
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. BEST CHC FOR SUN WOULD
APPEAR TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD
WHERE PROXIMITY TO DRIEST COLUMNAR MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST. OTW
MAINLY A DRY PERIOD UNTIL LATER WED/WED NIGHT WHEN WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AFFECTS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. ALL AND ALL THE DECENT STRETCH OF WX LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WHERE COVERAGE AND/OR DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL STRICTLY
GOVERN RADIATIVE PROCESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...IMPORTANT STRETCH OF TIME WITH THE
LONG THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER
EVENTFUL. SO WILL DETAIL DAY BY DAY.
TURKEY DAY...MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT AND IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...SO FCST HAS RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE AND HAVE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE. DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH WARMER AIR UP TOWARD OUR REGION SO TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE CLOUDY. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCAL TRAVEL
ISSUES.
FRIDAY...GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS AND
MODELS ARE NOW PRETTY SIMILAR. THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY
HIGH. THAT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. STRONG DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN RATHER QUICKLY...AND TREK
TOWARD CAPE COD. STRONG 850MB WINDS WILL TAP LOTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION IN PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LAST ALL DAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT...AND THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1"+ OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. NOT LOOKING AT FLOODING ISSUES...BUT CERTAINLY RISES ON
SMALL CREAKS MAY OCCUR.
FRIDAY NITE/SATURDAY...TRICKY PART OF THE FCST. AS UPPER TROF CUTS
OFF...THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...LIKELY BELOW 980MB BY
EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COPIUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL
AROUND THE LOW...SO THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. NO STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH TO
PROVIDE ANY DRY/COOL AIR INTO THE SYSTEM...RATHER ITS FROM THE
DYNAMIC COOLING FROM STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS
SO WRAPPED UP...THAT IT APPEARS THE COLDER TEMPS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES BEGIN TO SUPPORT
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NITE. FREEZING LEVELS BY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2000-3000FT...SO ACCUMULATING
SNOWS PROBABLY DOWN TO ABOUT 1500FT TO START THE DAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON...FREEZING LEVELS DROP A LITTLE BIT MORE...SO EVEN AT
THE VALLEY FLOOR WE SHOULD RAIN/SNOW MIX. CERTAINLY ABOVE 1000FT
IT WILL BE ALL SNOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WITH A SUB 980MB LOW OFF TO OUR
EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA...FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT UPSLOPE
FLOW CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
LOTS OF THINGS COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT WITH MODELS
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. LOOKS TO BE AN VERY
ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOW EVENT. RAN A FEW SCENARIOS HERE TO SEE
WHAT WE MAY GET. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY SEE
BETWEEN 1/2" TO 2"...BUT YOU GET OVER 1000FT AND WE ARE TALKING
SEVERAL INCHES. FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
AMOUNTS OVER 10" BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVELERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK AND TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WX SHOULD BE QUIETING DOWN. PERHAPS
STILL SOME -SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUING NW
UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL. FOR THE MOST PART...TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FINE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE SOME TOUGH SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDS ON HOW THINGS PAN OUT ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BECOME
BIGGER. HINTS IN MODELS THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP
SOMEWHERE NEAR US. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME -SHRN/-SHSN. PLAYED IT
CONSERVATIVE AND FOLLOWED GMOS...SO SMALL CHC OF PRECIP AND TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ALL SITES BECOMING VFR/MVFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
CONTINUES TO STREAM ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE COVERED MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH JUST A FEW SITES STILL REPORTING CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT
THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AND ALL SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS
1500-3500 FT BY 02Z. ONLY EXCEPTION IS KMSS WHICH IS ALREADY SOCKED
IN AT 1/4SM AND VV001 IN FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
STRAIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 3-5SM
/2SM AT KMPV/ AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FOG. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z AS CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WHILE FOG DISSIPATES. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE. WINDS
WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 5
KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR IN HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH IFR BECOMING
MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR SATURDAY IFR IN SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHILE VALLEYS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR IN RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW
EVENT OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST
MEASURABLE SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10
LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MB
CLIMATE...
[top]
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240310
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1010 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER.
GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN
P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
RAIN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.
POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WELL TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
RAIN ENTERING AREA IS BREAKING APART SO RAIN WILL BE INTERMITTENT
AND WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED VSBYS. HOWEVER...IFR
CIGS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN ENDS
BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH CIGS LIFTING OUT OF IFR. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY BKN-OVC COVERAGE AND LIFT FURTHER THROUGH AFTERNOON
FROM LOW END MVFR TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST.
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE CEILINGS INCREASE OUT OF IFR AND MVFR ON
TUESDAY AND WHETHER OR NOT MVFR CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS TURN TO MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO
IFR POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.
SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS/PW
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...AL/JM
MARINE...BG/BS
HYDROLOGY...BS
[top]
000
FXUS61 KBGM 240304
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1004 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REGAIN CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRIGGERS SOME SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RA/DZ MOVING NORTH
INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN PA. ACTIVITY IS HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO SIZABLE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AT
THE PRESENT TIME AS NOTED ON KBUF/KALY 00Z RAOBS. AS SLIGHTLY
HEAVIER ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND TEMPS CONTINUE TO
COOL...THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE. AREA BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW HOUNDED
MILLIBARS...THUS CAN EXPECT ON -RA/-DZ ONLY. MAIN FORCING FOR THIS
EVENT CONTINUES TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER WV WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE NJ COAST BY
MORNING. WITH MAIN FORCING REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND NO SIZABLE
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DUE TO WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...QPF SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND A MOISTENING AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO MUCH. OTHER THAN THAT...EVERYTHING APPEARS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. ZONES ALREADY SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WITH RIDGING ALOFT THEN REDEVELOPS ON
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. E-SELY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY IN THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN A FCST
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE ZONE OVER THE WRN SRN TIER/ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC-CHC FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH NOON. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WORKING INTO THE MSV-AVP REGION.
A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT IN
SERIES OF UL TROFS RELOADS OVE THE WRN GTLKS AND UPR MIDWEST. A
MINOR WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
CNTRL NY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIGGING TROF AND SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BLENDED MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE BUT HAVE LEANED WITH
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS ON WEDS/THURSDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFFSETTING THE ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPR 40S-LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UPON US TO START THE PERIOD AS A
DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO
ROTATE EASTWARD BEGINNING THU NIGHT. BY FRI MORNING...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE CAPE HATTERAS COAST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING
THE SFC LOW WILL RESIDE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND MARTHA`S
VINEYARD EARLY FRI...WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION SHOWING A FURTHER
NORTH POSITION. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WELL DEVELOPED
INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY EARLY FRI WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
SUGGESTING IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME DECENT QPF NUMBERS IF THIS MATERIALIZES AS SUGGESTED.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE P-TYPE. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS THE INITIAL P-TYPE BEING MOSTLY RAIN AS H85
TEMPS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...WITH VALUES FALLING TO
SUBZERO VALUES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...THE HEAVIEST QPF
WILL OCCUR ON FRI BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...WHICH LENDS SUPPORT TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT AS SFC
WET-BULB TEMP REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON FRI. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE MAIN H50 UPPER-LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY TAKING MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS WITH IT. BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHERE TEMPS STILL RESIDE IN
THE UPPER 40S WOULD NORMALLY HINT AT DECENT LAKE EFFECT
EVENT...HOWEVER THIS DOESN/T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS PER GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE HEIGHTS REMAINING
STAGNANT AROUND 5 KFT. THAT SAID...WHAT LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE
WITH YESTERDAY/S RUNS IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS SO WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. FOR NOW CAN STILL EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION SUFACES ALONG WITH AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FRI NIGHT/SAT...HOWEVER ALL THINGS POINT
TOWARDS A MODEST EVENT AT BEST AS TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
INITIALLY. STAY TUNED...
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KAVP/KBGM BTW 08Z-12Z. AT KAVP, LIGHT DRIZZLE IS ALSO
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AROUND 09Z AT KSYR AND 03Z AT KRME. ON
TUESDAY, CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL STILL BE AROUND 4K FT.
LIGHT E/SE FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...MVFR/PTCHY IFR WITH RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT
IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE
US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS
SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY
(11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT.
* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.
TOP 5
1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...CMG
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...RRM
CLIMATE...
[top]
000
FXUS61 KALY 240231
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
931 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS EAST OF
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH...ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...UPPED RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHERN VT A BIT. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...SUGGESTS THAT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV AFD BELOW...
AS OF 315 PM...A NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN STRATUS CLOUDS
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN SFC WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK AND POSITIONED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER A 1032MB
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS PROVIDING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW. SO FAR MAIN EFFECT HAS BEEN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT
AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY LAYER
PERSISTING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVELS MOISTENING...SO THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE AROUND AS WELL. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WILL REMAIN DRY. FORCING WEAKENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO
WILL GO WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MIN TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM...NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING. ALSO...NO
DISCERNIBLE FORCING WILL BE PRESENT SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT APPRECIABLE WARMING
WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE PLACE SINCE SUNSET IS AROUND 430 PM.
SO...WILL UNDERCUT BOTH MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MAX
TEMPS.
TUE NIGHT AND WED SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TEMPS WITH
VARYING CLOUD COVER. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND TUE NIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING APPRECIABLE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. WED WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST. AT THIS POINT
EXPECTING AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND
BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A WEAKENING PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BUILD REGARDING THE BLACK FRIDAY COASTAL
STORM...THUS HAVE GONE WITH HPC`S SOLUTION. AT THE PRESENT TIME...
IT APPEARS COLD AIR WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT SNOW IN THE LOWER
AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. INDEED...A LOOK AT SFC-
500 MB THICKNESSES INDICATES SUB-540 VALUES DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE GAME. THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW NORTH OF THE APPROACHING
LOW THURSDAY LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
AIR...SO THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WON`T LIFT MUCH ON FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS
AND THE PRECIP...BUT HIGHS AROUND 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH ALMOST CERTAINLY SUGGESTS AN ALL-RAIN EVENT THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...A MIX IS EXPECTED...AND IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO ENVISION ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DESPITE THE GFS`S SUGGESTED SIGNIFICANT QPFS...WHICH
TOTAL MAINLY BETWEEN AN INCH AND 1.50 INCHES FOR THE EVENT. SO...
FOR MOST OF US...THIS IS NOW LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT.
BEYOND FRIDAY...SNOW WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES UP THROUGH MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY
DUE TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BACK-END LAKE ENHANCEMENT. POPS
DECREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL TRACK TO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...AND
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS COLD ENOUGH THAT THIS STORM COULD WIND UP
BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES CLOSE TO BUT MOSTLY EAST OF THE AIRPORTS AT
2315Z. CARRYING VCSH AT GFL AND ALB. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN
-DZ AT POU OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR CIG/VSBY
AT ALL 3 AIRPORTS THIS EVENING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WINS THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...WITH WINDS AT 2000 FEET BEYOND 20 KTS EXPECTED ONLY AT
POU. NO WIND SHEAR ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT-THANKSGIVING DAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU NGT-FRI...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN LIKELY.
FRI NGT-SAT...CHC -SHRA/-SHRASN...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240207
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
907 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER.
GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN
P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
RAIN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.
POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WELL TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. RAIN
ENDS BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY WITH CIGS OF MOSTLY BKN-OVC CLOUDS
INCREASING THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM LOW END MVFR TO VFR.
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAST THE CEILINGS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WHETHER
OR NOT MVFR CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KJFK...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KLGA...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KTEB...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KHPN...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z FOR MVFR
CONDS.
KSWF...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
KISP...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
KBDR...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE.
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
KGON...CIGS MAY TAKE AN EXTRA HOUR TO LIFT OUT OF IFR RANGE
TUESDAY MORNING. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR CONDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AFT-WED...VFR WITH CONTINUED DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN TO
MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. LOWERING CIGS TO IFR POSSIBLY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY...VFR
CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.
SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS/PW
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...AL/JM
MARINE...BG/BS
HYDROLOGY...BS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240007
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
707 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE
IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER. GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW
DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING THAT THERE IS A
LOT OF VIRGA ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE AWHILE LONGER FOR THE
COLUMN TO MOISTEN COMPLETELY...AND EXCEPT FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...IT WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE STEADY RAINS BEGIN
TO FALL.
THE 00Z EC INITIALIZED THE BEST IN TERMS OF PRECIP DISTRIBUTION.
THIS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THIS FORECAST IS LARGELY
SIMILAR. MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET...AND TO
LOWER QPF IN GENERAL GIVEN DRIZZLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.
POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION IS BREAKING UP WITH
ENTRY...THEREFORE ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE INTERMITTENT
INITIALLY. AS THE RAIN BECOMES STEADIER LATER THIS EVENING BY
3-4Z...CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR RANGE. THE INITIAL STARTING TIME
BEARS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS CIGS HOVER NEAR THE IFR/MVFR THRESHOLD.
IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AN HOUR BEFORE OR AFTER TIME IN TAF.
CIGS/VSBY INCREASE WITH THE END OF RAINFALL BY AROUND 12Z TUE TO
MVFR RANGE UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN VFR CIGS RETURN.
WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST...020 TO 050...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 21 KT FOR KLGA THROUGH 04Z
BUT THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AND WILL BE INTERMITTENT.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AFT-WED...VFR WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS. WINDS TURN
TO MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT. SATURDAY...VFR
CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.
SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...AL/JM
MARINE...BG/BS
HYDROLOGY...BS
000
FXUS61 KBGM 240006
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
706 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REGAIN CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRIGGERS SOME SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BROAD E-SELY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND,
COUPLED WITH A WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA
AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES AND LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE OVER NEPA INTO THE SW CATSKILLS. UPR FEATURE IS FCST TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND POPS WILL BE TRENDED DOWN TO JUST MINOR
CHANCES TOWARD THE SYR-RME AREA AS THERE REMAINS SOME SFC BASED
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY INITIALLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES AND NORTHERN ZONES AS A MAINLY CLEAR HOLE SHOULD
REMAIN FOR A FEW HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. USED A MAV/MET
BLEND OF TEMPS IN THE SOUTH...BUT CLIPPED ABOUT 3 DEGREES OFF
TEMPS IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WITH RIDGING ALOFT THEN REDEVELOPS ON
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. E-SELY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY IN THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN A FCST
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE ZONE OVER THE WRN SRN TIER/ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC-CHC FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH NOON. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WORKING INTO THE MSV-AVP REGION.
A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT IN
SERIES OF UL TROFS RELOADS OVE THE WRN GTLKS AND UPR MIDWEST. A
MINOR WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
CNTRL NY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIGGING TROF AND SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BLENDED MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE BUT HAVE LEANED WITH
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS ON WEDS/THURSDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFFSETTING THE ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPR 40S-LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UPON US TO START THE PERIOD AS A
DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO
ROTATE EASTWARD BEGINNING THU NIGHT. BY FRI MORNING...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE CAPE HATTERAS COAST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING
THE SFC LOW WILL RESIDE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND MARTHA`S
VINEYARD EARLY FRI...WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION SHOWING A FURTHER
NORTH POSITION. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WELL DEVELOPED
INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY EARLY FRI WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
SUGGESTING IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME DECENT QPF NUMBERS IF THIS MATERIALIZES AS SUGGESTED.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE P-TYPE. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS THE INITIAL P-TYPE BEING MOSTLY RAIN AS H85
TEMPS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...WITH VALUES FALLING TO
SUBZERO VALUES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...THE HEAVIEST QPF
WILL OCCUR ON FRI BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...WHICH LENDS SUPPORT TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT AS SFC
WET-BULB TEMP REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON FRI. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE MAIN H50 UPPER-LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY TAKING MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS WITH IT. BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHERE TEMPS STILL RESIDE IN
THE UPPER 40S WOULD NORMALLY HINT AT DECENT LAKE EFFECT
EVENT...HOWEVER THIS DOESN/T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS PER GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE HEIGHTS REMAINING
STAGNANT AROUND 5 KFT. THAT SAID...WHAT LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE
WITH YESTERDAY/S RUNS IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS SO WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. FOR NOW CAN STILL EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION SUFACES ALONG WITH AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FRI NIGHT/SAT...HOWEVER ALL THINGS POINT
TOWARDS A MODEST EVENT AT BEST AS TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
INITIALLY. STAY TUNED...
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST WILL PRODUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE AT KAVP/KBGM BTW 08Z-12Z. AT KAVP, LIGHT DRIZZLE IS ALSO
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT KRME/KSYR, MVFR CIGS
WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AROUND 09Z AT KSYR AND 03Z AT KRME. ON
TUESDAY, CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL STILL BE AROUND 4K FT.
LIGHT E/SE FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...MVFR/PTCHY IFR WITH RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT
IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE
US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS
SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY
(11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT.
* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.
TOP 5
1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...RRM
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240000
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
700 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PROVIDED THE FINE WEATHER TO OUR REGION TODAY
WILL RETREAT INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND IT WILL STAY QUITE MILD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND TRANSFER
ITS ENERGY TO ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN AND WET SNOW FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF SUNNY SKIES ARE THE REFLECTION OF A BLOCKING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDES THROUGH THE RIDGE. WHEREAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS...THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FADES DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING RETURNS. WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS FROM ABOUT ROUTE 20A
SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NY TO OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF NORTHWARD EXCLUDING THE COUNTIES
ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO EXCLUDING
MOST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. NAM12 QPF OFFERS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
THE TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT HOLD UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE BLANKET OF
CLOUDS...WITH SOME SPOTS AT FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE LATER TO COVER THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE
COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
HOLD TIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD.
ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM
HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S
WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE
WARMING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE... WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO
SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY
END UP BEING RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON
THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COLDER AIR
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING THEREAFTER. A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OR EASTERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...BUT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. ONE MAJOR ONE IS THE
SHIFT WESTWARD IN ALL THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE
OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A DECENT PRECIP SHIELD FOR THURS NT AND FRI.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC TAKE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ACROSS ERN OHIO AND PA TO NJ...WHICH WOULD PLACE OUR AREA
UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE SWINGING IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC...WITH COLDER AIR (-6 TO -8C 850 MB) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MILDER AIR WRAPPING IN
FROM THE EAST (-1 TO -2C/850) ACROSS LK ONTARIO INTO MUCH OF OUR AREA.
THIS WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR LOW ELEVATIONS FURTHER
NORTH AND A MIX OF WET SNOW THREAT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVS TOWARD THE PA
LINE. POTENTIAL QPF COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH. THE
ECMWF IS A GOOD 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH ALL THIS...WITH BULK OF
HEAVIEST QPF IN 00Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...RAIN EVENTUALLY ENDING
AS WET SNOW OR A MIX...GFS WOULD BE LATER...RAIN LATER FRI INTO FRI
NT AND MIXING AS IT ENDS LATE FRI NT/SAT AM. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS THURS NT THROUGH FRI NT. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF HEAVY
SNOW IN PA/WVA AND RAIN IN MUCH OF NY STATE...BUT STAY TUNED.
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN WRAPAROUND ON SAT...WILL GO WITH CHC
POPS ALL AREAS...LIKELY SE OF LAKES IN UPSLOPE. DRIER WX FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASBL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NEW YORK
STATE TONIGHT...BEFORE PASSING OFF INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THICKENING AND LOWERING INTO THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...ALREADY-
ESTABLISHED MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE
KBUF-KIAG CORRIDOR POSSIBLY ALSO SEEING A DETERIORATION TO MVFR
LATER ON IN THE NIGHT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTERACTS WITH
THIS FEED OF MOISTURE...IT MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON AVIATION. AS
SUCH...HAVE JUST CONTINUED WITH A MENTION OF VCSH AT THE
WESTERNMOST TAF SITES TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY...RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING RATHER WEAK...THIS WILL HELP TO TRAP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...AVIATION INTERESTS CAN EXPECT MVFR TO LOW- END VFR
CIGS TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY...MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND CREATE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION WELL OFFSHORE AND
ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT
THREAT FOR MARINE FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
PASSES UP TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY OVER TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND
NOV 8 ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL
BE LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT
ROC. THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ARE
DEC 3 1899 AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH
THOSE DATES AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT
BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE EITHER BUFFALO OR
ROCHESTER LAST SAW MEASURABLE SNOW. THROUGH TODAY, BUFFALO HAS
GONE 229 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR SINCE APRIL 7, 2009.
THIS IS THE 6TH LONGEST STRETCH IN 125 YEARS OF RECORDS. THE
RECORD IS 245 DAYS SET BACK IN 1948. ROCHESTER IS ALSO AT 229 DAYS
WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR THE 7TH LONGEST STRETCH THERE. THE
RECORD IS 260 DAYS SET BACK IN 1952. IF WE REMAIN SNOW FREE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING, BOTH ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO WILL END UP WITH
THE THIRD LONGEST STRETCH OF SNOW FREE DAYS ON RECORD. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SFM
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SFM/WCH
CLIMATE...SFM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 232352
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF MARITIME ORIGIN...WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A TREND TOWARD INCLEMENT AND POSSIBLY WINTRY WEATHER WILL
OCCUR BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 205 PM EST MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING FROM THE MARITIMES WESTWARD ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE ERN LAKES REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
OUR AREA. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE
ADVECTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BENEATH THE BASE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NRN MID ATLANTIC. EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THIS MARINE-MODIFIED FLOW...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE EAST OF THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINTAINED AT
LEAST A LOW CHC FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ACCORDINGLY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LOOKING AT SKIES
GRADUALLY BECOMING OVERCAST TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
OR BR/FG IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST 925 MB
RH PROGS OFF THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM EST MONDAY...SFC HIGH...ALBEIT IN WEAKER FORM...THEN
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. BEST CHC FOR SUN WOULD
APPEAR TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD
WHERE PROXIMITY TO DRIEST COLUMNAR MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST. OTW
MAINLY A DRY PERIOD UNTIL LATER WED/WED NIGHT WHEN WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AFFECTS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. ALL AND ALL THE DECENT STRETCH OF WX LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WHERE COVEAGE AND/OR DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL STRICTLY
GOVERN RADIATIVE PROCESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...IMPORTANT STRETCH OF TIME WITH THE
LONG THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER
EVENTFUL. SO WILL DETAIL DAY BY DAY.
TURKEY DAY...MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT AND IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...SO FCST HAS RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE AND HAVE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE. DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH WARMER AIR UP TOWARD OUR REGION SO TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE CLOUDY. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCAL TRAVEL
ISSUES.
FRIDAY...GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS AND
MODELS ARE NOW PRETTY SIMILAR. THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY
HIGH. THAT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. STRONG DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENSIS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN RATHER QUICKLY...AND TREK
TOWARD CAPE COD. STRONG 850MB WINDS WILL TAP LOTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION IN PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LAST ALL DAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT...AND THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1"+ OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. NOT LOOKING AT FLOODING ISSUES...BUT CERTAINLY RISES ON
SMALL CREAKS MAY OCCUR.
FRIDAY NITE/SATURDAY...TRICKY PART OF THE FCST. AS UPPER TROF CUTS
OFF...THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...LIKELY BELOW 980MB BY
EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COPIUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL
AROUND THE LOW...SO THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. NO STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH TO
PROVIDE ANY DRY/COOL AIR INTO THE SYSTEM...RATHER ITS FROM THE
DYNAMIC COOLING FROM STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS
SO WRAPPED UP...THAT IT APPEARS THE COLDER TEMPS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES BEGIN TO SUPPORT
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NITE. FREEZING LEVELS BY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2000-3000FT...SO ACCUMULATING
SNOWS PROBABLY DOWN TO ABOUT 1500FT TO START THE DAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON...FREEZING LEVELS DROP A LITTLE BIT MORE...SO EVEN AT
THE VALLEY FLOOR WE SHOULD RAIN/SNOW MIX. CERTAINLY ABOVE 1000FT
IT WILL BE ALL SNOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WITH A SUB 980MB LOW OFF TO OUR
EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA...FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT UPSLOPE
FLOW CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
LOTS OF THINGS COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT WITH MODELS
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. LOOKS TO BE AN VERY
ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOW EVENT. RAN A FEW SCENARIOS HERE TO SEE
WHAT WE MAY GET. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY SEE
BETWEEN 1/2" TO 2"...BUT YOU GET OVER 1000FT AND WE ARE TALKING
SEVERAL INCHES. FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
AMOUNTS OVER 10" BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVELLERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK AND TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WX SHOULD BE QUIETING DOWN. PERHAPS
STILL SOME -SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUING NW
UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL. FOR THE MOST PART...TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FINE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE SOME TOUGH SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDS ON HOW THINGS PAN OUT ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BECOME
BIGGER. HINTS IN MODELS THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP
SOMEWHERE NEAR US. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME -SHRN/-SHSN. PLAYED IT
CONSERVATIVE AND FOLLOWED GMOS...SO SMALL CHC OF PRECIP AND TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCALIZED IFR EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN ALL SITES BECOMING VFR/MVFR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
CONTINUES TO STREAM ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HAVE COVERED MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH JUST A FEW SITES STILL REPORTING CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT
THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AND ALL SITES WILL SEE CEILINGS
1500-3500 FT BY 02Z. ONLY EXCEPTION IS KMSS WHICH IS ALREADY SOCKED
IN AT 1/4SM AND VV001 IN FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
STRAIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 3-5SM
/2SM AT KMPV/ AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FOG. THINGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER 14Z AS CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE WHILE FOG DISSIPATES. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN UNDER BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE. WINDS
WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 5
KNOTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED IFR IN HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS WITH IFR BECOMING
MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT AS PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH AND CHANGES TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR SATURDAY IFR IN SNOW AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHILE VALLEYS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR IN RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW
EVENT OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST
MEASURABLE SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10
LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...MB
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KALY 232320
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS EAST OF
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM...A NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN STRATUS CLOUDS
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN SFC WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK AND POSITIONED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER A 1032MB
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS PROVIDING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW. SO FAR MAIN EFFECT HAS BEEN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT
AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY LAYER
PERSISTING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVELS MOISTENING...SO THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE AROUND AS WELL. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WILL REMAIN DRY. FORCING WEAKENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO
WILL GO WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MIN TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM...NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING. ALSO...NO
DISCERNIBLE FORCING WILL BE PRESENT SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT APPRECIABLE WARMING
WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE PLACE SINCE SUNSET IS AROUND 430 PM.
SO...WILL UNDERCUT BOTH MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MAX
TEMPS.
TUE NIGHT AND WED SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TEMPS WITH
VARYING CLOUD COVER. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND TUE NIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING APPRECIABLE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. WED WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST. AT THIS POINT
EXPECTING AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND
BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A WEAKENING PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BUILD REGARDING THE BLACK FRIDAY COASTAL
STORM...THUS HAVE GONE WITH HPC`S SOLUTION. AT THE PRESENT TIME...
IT APPEARS COLD AIR WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT SNOW IN THE LOWER
AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. INDEED...A LOOK AT SFC-
500 MB THICKNESSES INDICATES SUB-540 VALUES DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE GAME. THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW NORTH OF THE APPROACHING
LOW THURSDAY LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
AIR...SO THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WON`T LIFT MUCH ON FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS
AND THE PRECIP...BUT HIGHS AROUND 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH ALMOST CERTAINLY SUGGESTS AN ALL-RAIN EVENT THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...A MIX IS EXPECTED...AND IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO ENVISION ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DESPITE THE GFS`S SUGGESTED SIGNIFICANT QPFS...WHICH
TOTAL MAINLY BETWEEN AN INCH AND 1.50 INCHES FOR THE EVENT. SO...
FOR MOST OF US...THIS IS NOW LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT.
BEYOND FRIDAY...SNOW WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES UP THROUGH MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY
DUE TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BACK-END LAKE ENHANCEMENT. POPS
DECREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL TRACK TO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...AND
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS COLD ENOUGH THAT THIS STORM COULD WIND UP
BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED RADAR ECHOES CLOSE TO BUT MOSTLY EAST OF THE AIRPORTS AT
2315Z. CARRYING VCSH AT GFL AND ALB. EXPECTING LITTLE MORE THAN
-DZ AT POU OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR CIG/VSBY
AT ALL 3 AIRPORTS THIS EVENING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK TUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WINS THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...WITH WINDS AT 2000 FEET BEYOND 20 KTS EXPECTED ONLY AT
POU. NO WIND SHEAR ISSUES.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT-THANKSGIVING DAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU NGT-FRI...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN LIKELY.
FRI NGT-SAT...CHC -SHRA/-SHRASN...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...JPV
000
FXUS61 KBGM 232103
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
403 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REGAIN CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRIGGERS SOME SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BROAD E-SELY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND,
COUPLED WITH A WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA
AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES AND LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE OVER NEPA INTO THE SW CATSKILLS. UPR FEATURE IS FCST TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND POPS WILL BE TRENDED DOWN TO JUST MINOR
CHANCES TOWARD THE SYR-RME AREA AS THERE REMAINS SOME SFC BASED
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY INITIALLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES AND NORTHERN ZONES AS A MAINLY CLEAR HOLE SHOULD
REMAIN FOR A FEW HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. USED A MAV/MET
BLEND OF TEMPS IN THE SOUTH...BUT CLIPPED ABOUT 3 DEGREES OFF
TEMPS IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WITH RIDGING ALOFT THEN REDEVELOPS ON
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. E-SELY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY IN THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN A FCST
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE ZONE OVER THE WRN SRN TIER/ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC-CHC FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH NOON. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WORKING INTO THE MSV-AVP REGION.
A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT IN
SERIES OF UL TROFS RELOADS OVE THE WRN GTLKS AND UPR MIDWEST. A
MINOR WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
CNTRL NY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIGGING TROF AND SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BLENDED MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE BUT HAVE LEANED WITH
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS ON WEDS/THURSDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFFSETTING THE ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPR 40S-LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UPON US TO START THE PERIOD AS A
DEEP...SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO
ROTATE EASTWARD BEGINNING THU NIGHT. BY FRI MORNING...A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE CAPE HATTERAS COAST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING
THE SFC LOW WILL RESIDE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND MARTHA`S
VINEYARD EARLY FRI...WITH THE LATTER SOLUTION SHOWING A FURTHER
NORTH POSITION. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A WELL DEVELOPED
INVERTED TROUGH SIGNATURE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY EARLY FRI WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
SUGGESTING IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
AREA AS A RESULT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME DECENT QPF NUMBERS IF THIS MATERIALIZES AS SUGGESTED.
BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT CONTINUES TO BE P-TYPE. ALL
INDICATIONS POINT TOWARDS THE INITIAL P-TYPE BEING MOSTLY RAIN AS H85
TEMPS REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...WITH VALUES FALLING TO
SUBZERO VALUES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...THE HEAVIEST QPF
WILL OCCUR ON FRI BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO PLUMMET BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...WHICH LENDS SUPPORT TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT AS SFC
WET-BULB TEMP REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON FRI. BY FRI
NIGHT...THE MAIN H50 UPPER-LOW WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...EFFECTIVELY TAKING MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/DYNAMICS WITH IT. BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM...COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHERE TEMPS STILL RESIDE IN
THE UPPER 40S WOULD NORMALLY HINT AT DECENT LAKE EFFECT
EVENT...HOWEVER THIS DOESN/T LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS PER GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE HEIGHTS REMAINING
STAGNANT AROUND 5 KFT. THAT SAID...WHAT LOOKED MORE IMPRESSIVE
WITH YESTERDAY/S RUNS IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS SO WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. FOR NOW CAN STILL EXPECT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION SUFACES ALONG WITH AREAS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FRI NIGHT/SAT...HOWEVER ALL THINGS POINT
TOWARDS A MODEST EVENT AT BEST AS TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
INITIALLY. STAY TUNED...
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LGT ELY FLOW BRINGING LL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LOW ANGLE NOV SUN
HAS MANAGED TO BURN THRU THE LOW OVC IN MOST PLACES ALLOWING FOR
GRNLY CLR SKIES. WEAK SFC AND UPR WV APRCHS FOR TNGT...
STRENGTHENING THE ELY IN FLOW AND AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...MVFR CIGS
SHD RETURN. WEAK FRCG WITH THE WV COULD TRIGGER A FEW LGT SHWRS
OVRNGT INTO TUE...BUT VSBYS SHD REMAIN MVFR AT WORST WITH THE LGT
RAIN. LACK OF STRONG SFC RDGG BHD THE WV WILL ALLOW THE LL
MOISTURE AND MVFR CIGS TO CONT INTO TUE.
OUTLOOK...
TUES...MVFR IN LWRD CIGS.
WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...MVFR/PTCHY IFR WITH RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT
IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE
US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS
SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY
(11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT.
* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.
TOP 5
1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KBTV 232102
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
402 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF MARITIME ORIGIN...WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A TREND TOWARD INCLEMENT AND POSSIBLY WINTRY WEATHER WILL
OCCUR BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 205 PM EST MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING FROM THE MARITIMES WESTWARD ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE ERN LAKES REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
OUR AREA. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE
ADVECTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BENEATH THE BASE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NRN MID ATLANTIC. EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THIS MARINE-MODIFIED FLOW...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE EAST OF THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINTAINED AT
LEAST A LOW CHC FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ACCORDINGLY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LOOKING AT SKIES
GRADUALLY BECOMING OVERCAST TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
OR BR/FG IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST 925 MB
RH PROGS OFF THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM EST MONDAY...SFC HIGH...ALBEIT IN WEAKER FORM...THEN
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. BEST CHC FOR SUN WOULD
APPEAR TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD
WHERE PROXIMITY TO DRIEST COLUMNAR MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST. OTW
MAINLY A DRY PERIOD UNTIL LATER WED/WED NIGHT WHEN WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AFFECTS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. ALL AND ALL THE DECENT STRETCH OF WX LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WHERE COVEAGE AND/OR DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL STRICTLY
GOVERN RADIATIVE PROCESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST MONDAY...IMPORTANT STRETCH OF TIME WITH THE
LONG THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND THE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER
EVENTFUL. SO WILL DETAIL DAY BY DAY.
TURKEY DAY...MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT AND IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...SO FCST HAS RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE AND HAVE GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE. DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUSH WARMER AIR UP TOWARD OUR REGION SO TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE CLOUDY. NOT EXPECTING ANY LOCAL TRAVEL
ISSUES.
FRIDAY...GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS AND
MODELS ARE NOW PRETTY SIMILAR. THUS CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY
HIGH. THAT UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION. STRONG DYNAMICS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENSIS OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN RATHER QUICKLY...AND TREK
TOWARD CAPE COD. STRONG 850MB WINDS WILL TAP LOTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION IN PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LAST ALL DAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN EVENT...AND THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1"+ OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. NOT LOOKING AT FLOODING ISSUES...BUT CERTAINLY RISES ON
SMALL CREAKS MAY OCCUR.
FRIDAY NITE/SATURDAY...TRICKY PART OF THE FCST. AS UPPER TROF CUTS
OFF...THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...LIKELY BELOW 980MB BY
EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COPIUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL
AROUND THE LOW...SO THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
PRECIP...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. MORE IMPORTANTLY...
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. NO STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH TO
PROVIDE ANY DRY/COOL AIR INTO THE SYSTEM...RATHER ITS FROM THE
DYNAMIC COOLING FROM STRONG UPWARD MOTION IN THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS
SO WRAPPED UP...THAT IT APPEARS THE COLDER TEMPS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES BEGIN TO SUPPORT
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NITE. FREEZING LEVELS BY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 2000-3000FT...SO ACCUMULATING
SNOWS PROBABLY DOWN TO ABOUT 1500FT TO START THE DAY. BY THE
AFTERNOON...FREEZING LEVELS DROP A LITTLE BIT MORE...SO EVEN AT
THE VALLEY FLOOR WE SHOULD RAIN/SNOW MIX. CERTAINLY ABOVE 1000FT
IT WILL BE ALL SNOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WITH A SUB 980MB LOW OFF TO OUR
EAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN EXCESS OF 30KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA...FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT UPSLOPE
FLOW CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
LOTS OF THINGS COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT WITH MODELS
IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. LOOKS TO BE AN VERY
ELEVATIONAL DEPENDENT SNOW EVENT. RAN A FEW SCENARIOS HERE TO SEE
WHAT WE MAY GET. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY MAY SEE
BETWEEN 1/2" TO 2"...BUT YOU GET OVER 1000FT AND WE ARE TALKING
SEVERAL INCHES. FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN/MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY SEE
AMOUNTS OVER 10" BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVELLERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK AND TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WX SHOULD BE QUIETING DOWN. PERHAPS
STILL SOME -SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS WITH CONTINUING NW
UPSLOPE FLOW. BUT GENERALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR NORMAL. FOR THE MOST PART...TRAVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FINE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE SOME TOUGH SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
DEPENDS ON HOW THINGS PAN OUT ON SATURDAY.
MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BECOME
BIGGER. HINTS IN MODELS THAT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP
SOMEWHERE NEAR US. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME -SHRN/-SHSN. PLAYED IT
CONSERVATIVE AND FOLLOWED GMOS...SO SMALL CHC OF PRECIP AND TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER/CEILING CONDITIONS REMAINS THE MOST
PROBLEMATIC ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST. LOW CLDS AT MVFR HEIGHTS HAVE
HUNG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
GREENS. DONT EXPECT ANY BIG CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. OTHER
POCKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS HAS BEEN IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. KMSS HAS BEEN MOST IMPACTED WITH OBS GOING
AS LOW AS 1/4SM OVC001. ALTHOUGH VSBYS THERE MAY BRIEFLY COME UP TO
3-5SM FOR A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOST OF THE NEXT 12-18HRS TO
FEATURE VSBYS <1SM. ACROSS REST OF NRN NY/VT...GENERALLY VFR. KMPV
JUST ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LOW CLOUDS. SUSPECT THEY WILL
REMAIN MVFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BREAK OUT INTO VFR. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS OVERNIGHT. THINK WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS
WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 3-5SM AND
CEILINGS 015-025. HOWEVER LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE FOR KMSS...KSLK AND
KMPV. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF -SHRA OR DZ ACROSS FAR SRN VT AFTER
06Z...HOWEVER KEPT IT OUT OF KRUT TAF ATTM.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY AFTN/OVERNIGHT...MVFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR
THURSDAY...MVFR. POSSIBLE -SHRA
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN WIDESPREAD RA
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SHSN
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW
EVENT OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST
MEASURABLE SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10
LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH
000
FXUS61 KALY 232102
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
402 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS EAST OF
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM...A NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN STRATUS CLOUDS
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN SFC WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK AND POSITIONED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER A 1032MB
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS PROVIDING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW. SO FAR MAIN EFFECT HAS BEEN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT
AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY LAYER
PERSISTING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVELS MOISTENING...SO THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE AROUND AS WELL. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WILL REMAIN DRY. FORCING WEAKENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO
WILL GO WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MIN TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM...NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING. ALSO...NO
DISCERNIBLE FORCING WILL BE PRESENT SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT APPRECIABLE WARMING
WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE PLACE SINCE SUNSET IS AROUND 430 PM.
SO...WILL UNDERCUT BOTH MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MAX
TEMPS.
TUE NIGHT AND WED SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TEMPS WITH
VARYING CLOUD COVER. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND TUE NIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING APPRECIABLE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. WED WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST. AT THIS POINT
EXPECTING AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND
BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A WEAKENING PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BUILD REGARDING THE BLACK FRIDAY COASTAL
STORM...THUS HAVE GONE WITH HPC`S SOLUTION. AT THE PRESENT TIME...
IT APPEARS COLD AIR WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT SNOW IN THE LOWER
AND SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR FORECAST AREA. INDEED...A LOOK AT SFC-
500 MB THICKNESSES INDICATES SUB-540 VALUES DON`T MOVE IN UNTIL VERY
LATE IN THE GAME. THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW NORTH OF THE APPROACHING
LOW THURSDAY LOW WILL ACTUALLY BE BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
AIR...SO THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WON`T LIFT MUCH ON FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS
AND THE PRECIP...BUT HIGHS AROUND 40 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH ALMOST CERTAINLY SUGGESTS AN ALL-RAIN EVENT THERE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE...A MIX IS EXPECTED...AND IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO ENVISION ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DESPITE THE GFS`S SUGGESTED SIGNIFICANT QPFS...WHICH
TOTAL MAINLY BETWEEN AN INCH AND 1.50 INCHES FOR THE EVENT. SO...
FOR MOST OF US...THIS IS NOW LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT.
BEYOND FRIDAY...SNOW WILL BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES UP THROUGH MAINE AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY
DUE TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BACK-END LAKE ENHANCEMENT. POPS
DECREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WILL TRACK TO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHC FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...AND
THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS COLD ENOUGH THAT THIS STORM COULD WIND UP
BRINGING THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KALB TO START THE PERIOD WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KPOU HAS FILLED IN WITH MVFR CIGS
AS OF 1745Z. MVFR CLDS APPROACHING KGFL...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
THROUGH 22Z.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ARRIVES LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS FOLLOWING THIS
EVENING. THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...ESP AT KGFL WITH LIGHTER WINDS RESULTING IN IFR
VSBYS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO ONLY BE VCSH AT KGFL WHILE MAIN SHIELD
OF PRECIP WILL REACH KPOU THIS AFTERNOON AND KALB THIS EVENING.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT BUT PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING...FURTHER IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N/NE AT 3-6KTS...DISSIPATING TO LGT
AND VRB OVERNIGHT. LATE TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE N TO NE AROUND 5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NT-SAT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE THU THRU SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...JPV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 232053
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST...ALLOWING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE UP THE US EAST COAST. THIS LOW
PASSES EAST OF CAPE COD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY IMPACT THE
REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE MOISTURE
IS ABUNDANT HOWEVER. GIVEN THESE WEAK AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW
DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE MAIN P-TYPE TO BE DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF
TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING THAT THERE IS A
LOT OF VIRGA ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL TAKE AWHILE LONGER FOR THE
COLUMN TO MOISTEN COMPLETELY...AND EXCEPT FOR EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...IT WILL BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE STEADY RAINS BEGIN
TO FALL.
THE 00Z EC INITIALIZED THE BEST IN TERMS OF PRECIP DISTRIBUTION.
THIS WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THIS FORECAST IS LARGELY
SIMILAR. MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET...AND TO
LOWER QPF IN GENERAL GIVEN DRIZZLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOLID
CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS INHIBITING ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PREFERRED LOW TRACK TAKES THE WEAK SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD BY
LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THE FLOW IN GENERAL WEAKENS A BIT...BUT
DOES NOT REALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ALSO NO
APPRECIABLE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...SKIES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CLOUDY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FULLY MIXED VALUES...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...WITH WHAT IS LIKELY
TO BE THE BEST WEATHER DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
60...ESPECIALLY IF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL.
POTENT COLORADO LOW SETS THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK.
THE PARENT LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A ST. LAWRENCE/GREAT LAKES TRACK INTO
EASTERN CANADA. A SECONDARY COLD LOW ALOFT DIVES IN BEHIND THE
INITIAL TROUGH AND ALLOWS IT BECAME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SPAWN A
COASTAL LOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC DEVELOPS THE SURFACE
LOW JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
FARTHER WEST WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED SFC LOW OVER NYC/LI. BOTTOM
LINE IS LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
THANKSGIVING NIGHT. SPOTTY PRECIP OVER THE AREA INITIALLY IN THE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES AND INDUCES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEARBY...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH NW OF
INCIPIENT LOW PRESSURE E OF THE VA CAPES. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE FROM THE LOCAL AREA INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRI...WITH A BRISK W FLOW TAKING HOLD IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER SOME MORNING RAINFALL...AND LASTING INTO SAT. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA EXISTS ON SAT IF
INGREDIENTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LARGE PRESSURE RISES TO THE REAR OF THE LOW MESH. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL PRESENT LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS WELL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING NORTH/WEST
OF NYC.
BRISK W FLOW SHOULD LESSEN ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SLIDES ACROSS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFT. CEILINGS TO DROP
BELOW 2 KFT BY 20Z. ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH BRIEF
EPISODES OF MVFR VSBYS...BUT PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z. DIFFICULT
FORECAST TOWARD 00Z AS CEILINGS APPROACH IFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND THE UPPER END OF THE IFR CATEGORY OR LOW END OF THE
MVFR CATEGORY.
WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST...020 TO 050...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...AFTER 00Z...PREVAILING MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03011KT
23/21Z 03011KT
23/22Z 03011KT
23/23Z 03011KT
24/00Z 03011KT
24/01Z 03011KT
24/02Z 03011KT
24/03Z 03011KT
24/04Z 03010KT
24/05Z 03010KT
KJFK...AFTER 23Z...PREVAILING IFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KLGA...AFTER 00Z...PREVAILING MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KTEB...AFTER 00Z...PREVAILING MVFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KHPN...AFTER 23Z...PREVAILING IFR...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND THE 1 KFT.
KSWF...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KISP...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...AFTER 23Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AFT-WED...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
ALL WATERS. SLOW MOVING HIGH COUPLED WITH A WEAK ATLANTIC STORM
TRACK WILL KEEP THIS WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PROTECTED
BAYS WILL BE THE FIRST TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON OCEAN SEAS FALLING BELOW 5 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED HERE.
SUB SCA ON ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN
STRENGTHENING S-SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE.
GALES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN FROM FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE LIFTING NE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN FOLLOW FOR SAT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP REGIONWIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/BS
HYDROLOGY...BS
000
FXUS61 KALY 232052
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
352 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS EAST OF
CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY...WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM...A NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN STRATUS CLOUDS
ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN SFC WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK AND POSITIONED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...HOWEVER A 1032MB
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS PROVIDING THE
NORTHEAST FLOW. SO FAR MAIN EFFECT HAS BEEN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT
AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY LAYER
PERSISTING ALOFT WITH LOW LEVELS MOISTENING...SO THERE WILL BE SOME
DRIZZLE AROUND AS WELL. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY...WITH CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS. PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS WILL REMAIN DRY. FORCING WEAKENS AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO
WILL GO WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. DUE
TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MIN TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM...NORTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH WILL BE WEAKENING. ALSO...NO
DISCERNIBLE FORCING WILL BE PRESENT SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD BE EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY OCCUR VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT APPRECIABLE WARMING
WILL LIKELY NOT TAKE PLACE SINCE SUNSET IS AROUND 430 PM.
SO...WILL UNDERCUT BOTH MAV/MET GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR MAX
TEMPS.
TUE NIGHT AND WED SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. AGAIN...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING TEMPS WITH
VARYING CLOUD COVER. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND TUE NIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING APPRECIABLE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS. WED WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TO OUR EAST. AT THIS POINT
EXPECTING AT LEAST A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND
BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
A WEAKENING PIECE OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WED NIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMING SOON.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KALB TO START THE PERIOD WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KPOU HAS FILLED IN WITH MVFR CIGS
AS OF 1745Z. MVFR CLDS APPROACHING KGFL...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
THROUGH 22Z.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ARRIVES LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS FOLLOWING THIS
EVENING. THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...ESP AT KGFL WITH LIGHTER WINDS RESULTING IN IFR
VSBYS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO ONLY BE VCSH AT KGFL WHILE MAIN SHIELD
OF PRECIP WILL REACH KPOU THIS AFTERNOON AND KALB THIS EVENING.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT BUT PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING...FURTHER IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N/NE AT 3-6KTS...DISSIPATING TO LGT
AND VRB OVERNIGHT. LATE TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE N TO NE AROUND 5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NT-SAT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE THU THRU SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. THIS
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG STORM
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT
PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...JPV
000
FXUS61 KBGM 232017
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REGAIN CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE TRIGGERS SOME SHOWERS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD E-SELY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND,
COUPLED WITH A WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA
AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES AND LATEST
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL
BE OVER NEPA INTO THE SW CATSKILLS. UPR FEATURE IS FCST TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND POPS WILL BE TRENDED DOWN TO JUST MINOR
CHANCES TOWARD THE SYR-RME AREA AS THERE REMAINS SOME SFC BASED
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY INTIALLY OVER THE
FINGER LAKES AND NORTHERN ZONES AS A MAINLY CLEAR HOLE SHOULD
REMAIN FOR A FEW HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK
DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. USED A MAV/MET
BLEND OF TEMPS IN THE SOUTH...BUT CLIPPED ABOUT 3 DEGREES OFF
TEMPS IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WITH RIDGING ALOFT THEN REDEVELOPS ON
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. E-SELY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY IN THE
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN A FCST
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE ZONE OVER THE WRN SRN TIER/ALLEGHANY
PLATEAU. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC-CHC FOR DRIZZLE THROUGH NOON. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE WORKING INTO THE MSV-AVP REGION.
A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT IN
SERIES OF UL TROFS RELOADS OVE THE WRN GTLKS AND UPR MIDWEST. A
MINOR WAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
CNTRL NY LATER WEDS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN ACTION LOOKS TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL WELL INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DIGGING TROF AND SFC
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
BLENDED MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE BUT HAVE LEANED WITH
THE COOLER MET NUMBERS ON WEDS/THURSDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OFFSETTING THE ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPR 40S-LOW 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE UPDATED SOON.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LGT ELY FLOW BRINGING LL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LOW ANGLE NOV SUN
HAS MANAGED TO BURN THRU THE LOW OVC IN MOST PLACES ALLOWING FOR
GRNLY CLR SKIES. WEAK SFC AND UPR WV APRCHS FOR TNGT...
STRENGTHENING THE ELY IN FLOW AND AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...MVFR CIGS
SHD RETURN. WEAK FRCG WITH THE WV COULD TRIGGER A FEW LGT SHWRS
OVRNGT INTO TUE...BUT VSBYS SHD REMAIN MVFR AT WORST WITH THE LGT
RAIN. LACK OF STRONG SFC RDGG BHD THE WV WILL ALLOW THE LL
MOISTURE AND MVFR CIGS TO CONT INTO TUE.
OUTLOOK...
TUES...MVFR IN LWRD CIGS.
WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...MVFR/PTCHY IFR WITH RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT
IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE
US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS
SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY
(11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT.
* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.
TOP 5
1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...HEDEN
000
FXUS61 KBUF 232009
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
309 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH PROVIDED THE FINE WEATHER TO OUR REGION TODAY
WILL RETREAT INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND ALLOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MOIST AIR TO OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND IT WILL STAY QUITE MILD. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND TRANSFER
ITS ENERGY TO ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
RESULTING IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN AND WET SNOW FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF SUNNY SKIES ARE THE REFLECTION OF A BLOCKING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY THIS AFTERNOON. MID
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDES THROUGH THE RIDGE. WHEREAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTS...THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FADES DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING RETURNS. WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS FROM ABOUT ROUTE 20A
SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NY TO OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS
COUNTIES...WITH A SHARP CUTOFF NORTHWARD EXCLUDING THE COUNTIES
ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO EXCLUDING
MOST OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. NAM12 QPF OFFERS ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR
THE TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH MID MORNING ON TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT HOLD UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WITH THE BLANKET OF
CLOUDS...WITH SOME SPOTS AT FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
THE CLOUDS WILL BE LATER TO COVER THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE
COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL
HOLD TIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD.
ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 12Z NAM
HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S
WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE
WARMING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES
PLACE... WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO
SLOW THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY
END UP BEING RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON
THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE COLDER AIR
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING THEREAFTER. A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OR EASTERN NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES...BUT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. ONE MAJOR ONE IS THE
SHIFT WESTWARD IN ALL THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY. THIS WOULD PLACE
OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A DECENT PRECIP SHIELD FOR THURS NT AND FRI.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC TAKE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...ACROSS ERN OHIO AND PA TO NJ...WHICH WOULD PLACE OUR AREA
UNDER AN EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE SWINGING IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC...WITH COLDER AIR (-6 TO -8C 850 MB) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH MILDER AIR WRAPPING IN
FROM THE EAST (-1 TO -2C/850) ACROSS LK ONTARIO INTO MUCH OF OUR AREA.
THIS WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR LOW ELEVATIONS FURTHER
NORTH AND A MIX OF WET SNOW THREAT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVS TOWARD THE PA
LINE. POTENTIAL QPF COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH. THE
ECMWF IS A GOOD 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER WITH ALL THIS...WITH BULK OF
HEAVIEST QPF IN 00Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME PERIOD...RAIN EVENTUALLY ENDING
AS WET SNOW OR A MIX...GFS WOULD BE LATER...RAIN LATER FRI INTO FRI
NT AND MIXING AS IT ENDS LATE FRI NT/SAT AM. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS THURS NT THROUGH FRI NT. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF HEAVY
SNOW IN PA/WVA AND RAIN IN MUCH OF NY STATE...BUT STAY TUNED.
SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FOLLOWS IN WRAPAROUND ON SAT...WILL GO WITH CHC
POPS ALL AREAS...LIKELY SE OF LAKES IN UPSLOPE. DRIER WX FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASBL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK HAS BEEN BLOCKING THE ENCROACHMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
TRYING TO INVADE THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AS THE ATTENDANT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES LOW. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 00Z TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AFTER 06Z TO 08Z ACROSS WESTERN NY...AFFECTING KJHW/KBUF/KIAG
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND CREATE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION WELL OFFSHORE AND
ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT
THREAT FOR MARINE FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE ON FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING LOW
PASSES UP TO OUR EAST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY OVER TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND
NOV 8 ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL
BE LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT
ROC. THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ARE
DEC 3 1899 AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH
THOSE DATES AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT
BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE EITHER BUFFALO OR
ROCHESTER LAST SAW MEASURABLE SNOW. THROUGH TODAY, BUFFALO HAS
GONE 229 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR SINCE APRIL 7, 2009.
THIS IS THE 6TH LONGEST STRETCH IN 125 YEARS OF RECORDS. THE
RECORD IS 245 DAYS SET BACK IN 1948. ROCHESTER IS ALSO AT 229 DAYS
WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR THE 7TH LONGEST STRETCH THERE. THE
RECORD IS 260 DAYS SET BACK IN 1952. IF WE REMAIN SNOW FREE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING, BOTH ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO WILL END UP WITH
THE THIRD LONGEST STRETCH OF SNOW FREE DAYS ON RECORD. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SFM
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...SFM
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SFM
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...SFM/WCH
CLIMATE...SFM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231906
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
205 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF MARITIME ORIGIN...WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO PUSH NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A TREND TOWARD INCLEMENT AND POSSIBLY WINTRY WEATHER WILL
OCCUR BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM EST MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL NIGHT ON TAP AS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING FROM THE MARITIMES WESTWARD ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE ERN LAKES REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
OUR AREA. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS LOW TO MID LVL MOISTURE
ADVECTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BENEATH THE BASE OF THIS RIDGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NRN MID ATLANTIC. EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THIS MARINE-MODIFIED FLOW...AND WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OFFSHORE EAST OF THE BENCHMARK OVERNIGHT HAVE MAINTAINED AT
LEAST A LOW CHC FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ACCORDINGLY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY LOOKING AT SKIES
GRADUALLY BECOMING OVERCAST TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
OR BR/FG IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST 925 MB
RH PROGS OFF THIS MORNINGS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM EST MONDAY...SFC HIGH...ALBEIT IN WEAKER FORM...THEN
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. BEST CHC FOR SUN WOULD
APPEAR TO OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD
WHERE PROXIMITY TO DRIEST COLUMNAR MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST. OTW
MAINLY A DRY PERIOD UNTIL LATER WED/WED NIGHT WHEN WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AFFECTS OUR NRN NY COUNTIES WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES. ALL AND ALL THE DECENT STRETCH OF WX LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY REAL CHALLENGE WILL BE IN OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS...WHERE COVEAGE AND/OR DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL STRICTLY
GOVERN RADIATIVE PROCESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURS
MORNING...WITH MAJORITY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. SO I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY....THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF LOW DEVELOPING OFF CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE
SLOWS THINGS DOWN...GIVING THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA BEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON THANKSGIVING.
ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND WHICH KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THURSDAY...AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
NEAR LONG ISLAND OR THE BENCH MARK...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING BACK
INTO ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...ESPECIALLY POINTS WEST AND
SOUTH...SPREADING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR...AND CONSEQUENTLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...IS VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL HUG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
WITH A POSITION NEAR DOWNEAST MAINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT WE REMAIN UNDER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND UNDER N TO NW FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY....ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
POINTS JUST WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. AS THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST
AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER/CEILING CONDITIONS REMAINS THE MOST
PROBLEMATIC ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST. LOW CLDS AT MVFR HEIGHTS HAVE
HUNG TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
GREENS. DONT EXPECT ANY BIG CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. OTHER
POCKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS HAS BEEN IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. KMSS HAS BEEN MOST IMPACTED WITH OBS GOING
AS LOW AS 1/4SM OVC001. ALTHOUGH VSBYS THERE MAY BRIEFLY COME UP TO
3-5SM FOR A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOST OF THE NEXT 12-18HRS TO
FEATURE VSBYS <1SM. ACROSS REST OF NRN NY/VT...GENERALLY VFR. KMPV
JUST ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LOW CLOUDS. SUSPECT THEY WILL
REMAIN MVFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BREAK OUT INTO VFR. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS OVERNIGHT. THINK WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS
WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 3-5SM AND
CEILINGS 015-025. HOWEVER LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE FOR KMSS...KSLK AND
KMPV. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF -SHRA OR DZ ACROSS FAR SRN VT AFTER
06Z...HOWEVER KEPT IT OUT OF KRUT TAF ATTM.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY AFTN/OVERNIGHT...MVFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR
THURSDAY...MVFR. POSSIBLE -SHRA
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN WIDESPREAD RA
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SHSN
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW
EVENT OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST
MEASURABLE SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10
LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231805
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
105 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE POPS FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR SUPPORTS
ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. INCREASED POPS TO THE EAST AS THE
SHOWERS OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...ALSO SEE SOME THETA E ADVECTION AT H850
IN THE NAM AND GFS...INDICATING ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING OFFSHORE...DO NOT EXPECT
FORCING TO BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFT. CEILINGS TO DROP
BELOW 2 KFT BY 20Z. ANY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE SPOTTY WITH BRIEF
EPISODES OF MVFR VSBYS...BUT PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z. DIFFICULT
FORECAST TOWARD 00Z AS CEILINGS APPROACH IFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND THE UPPER END OF THE IFR CATEGORY OR LOW END OF THE
MVFR CATEGORY.
WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST...020 TO 050...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT NYC TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/16Z 03012KT
23/17Z 03012KT
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03012KT
23/21Z 03012KT
23/22Z 03012KT
23/23Z 03011KT
24/00Z 03010KT
24/01Z 03010KT
24/02Z 03010KT
24/03Z 03010KT
KJFK...AFTER 23Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
KLGA...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
KTEB...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KHPN...AFTER 23Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KSWF...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KISP...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...AFTER 23Z...CEILINGS WILL VARY BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY AFT-WED...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR CEILINGS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION/CYCLONIC FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING
TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRES WORKING NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS MORNING...THEN
SPREADING WEST BY AFT. QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...JST
000
FXUS61 KBGM 231758
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1258 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS STORM RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM...IT/S YET ANOTHER TRICKY DAY DESPITE BEING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS TRYING TO DISSIPATE OVER
CNY AND NEPA, YET WAS ALSO SPREADING INTO AREAS THAT HAD STARTED
OUT CLEAR. MORE PREDICTABLE CLOUDINESS ALSO CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM. HAVE MADE SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER TO INDICATE SUNNY VS CLOUD AREAS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THAT EXISTING CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME AROUND MIDDAY, THEN BE
REPLACED BY MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. OVERALL...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
WOULD BE A GOOD DESCRIPTOR TODAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. WE
WERE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT AND HAVE OBVIOUSLY STARTED
WITH A SLOWER REBOUND THIS MORNING. CURRENT FCST TEMPS SEEM A BIT
OPTIMISTIC AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK BY ABOUT 3 OR SO DEGREES WITH
TEMPS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
THICKEST AND MOST PERSISTENT. SUNNY AREAS OVER NEPA THAT HAVE
WARMED QUICKLY WILL LEVEL OFF AS NEXT AREA OF CLOUDS ARRIVES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH MAY TRY TO MOVE IN A FEW SHOWERS OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD DUSK ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS. EVEN HERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MAIN THREAT
FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH FINALLY
RETREATS ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW THE MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FOR MOST...BUT UP TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE EAST BY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA. A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
STORM SYSTEMS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A NEW AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST UP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THICKNESS VALUES WELL TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT
RAIN. LOOKS LIKE ALL THE FUN IS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE MID WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE SFC LOW
IS SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL EJECT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA.
ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SISTER SFC LOW THAT TRACKS INLAND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IN
THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT TRACK. HOW THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND A LITTLE LESS OF A SISTER
LOW AND THIS COULD BECOME A STRONG COASTAL STORM. THE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS FRIDAY
PROGRESSES...COLDER TEMPS MOVE IN AND THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. 1000-500 THICKNESS DROP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
TO BELOW 540DM AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND 530DM ON SATURDAY. THE ISSUE
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS
VT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A TYPICAL TRACK.
THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW STAYING ALONG THE COAST ALL THE WAY UP PAST
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THIS TRACK FOR NOW. WITH THIS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS
WEEKEND..WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY RUN TO RUN ON INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF
THE PRECIP.
AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD...THE SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -4 OR -5 C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE WRAP AROUND
PRECIP FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW DOES QUICKLY MOVE OUT
AND THE SFC FLOW DIES DOWN. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LGT ELY FLOW BRINGING LL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. LOW ANGLE NOV SUN
HAS MANAGED TO BURN THRU THE LOW OVC IN MOST PLACES ALLOWING FOR
GRNLY CLR SKIES. WEAK SFC AND UPR WV APRCHS FOR TNGT...
STRENGTHENING THE ELY IN FLOW AND AS THE SUN GOES DOWN...MVFR CIGS
SHD RETURN. WEAK FRCG WITH THE WV COULD TRIGGER A FEW LGT SHWRS
OVRNGT INTO TUE...BUT VSBYS SHD REMAIN MVFR AT WORST WITH THE LGT
RAIN. LACK OF STRONG SFC RDGG BHD THE WV WILL ALLOW THE LL
MOISTURE AND MVFR CIGS TO CONT INTO TUE.
OUTLOOK...
TUES...MVFR IN LWRD CIGS.
WED/THU...VFR.
FRI/SAT...MVFR/PTCHY IFR WITH RAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT
IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE
US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS
SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY
(11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT.
* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.
TOP 5
1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...DGM
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231752
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1252 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EST MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE
FCST...MAINLY TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN SKY COVER...AND TO KEEP
ANY PCPN LATER TONIGHT IN LIQUID FORM. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING AS MEAN SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THIS HAS ALLOWED MOIST LOW LVL CLOUDINESS OF MARITIME ORIGIN TO
CREEP NORTHWARD...ESP ACROSS OUR ERN VT COUNTIES. WITH PRONOUNCED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
ESSENTIALLY HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN CREEP
STEADILY NORTHWARD BY THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY ALOFT. BASED OFF EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND MARINE-MODIFIED
AIRMASS ATOP THE AREA TONIGHT...BELIEVE MIN TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...ESP SOUTH. THUS ANY PCPN THAT MAY OCCUR
WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES WOULD BE LIGHT
AND IN THE LIQUID FORM. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND OTHER THAN
CHGS NOTED ABOVE...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ATTM. ENJOY THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 310 AM EST MONDAY...
SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER N MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS
SET UP EASTERLY FLOW FOR GD PORTION OF NEW ENG REGION. THIS HAS
ALLOWED LL CLD DECK TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY
LATEST IR SAT PIC. EXPECTING THIS CLD COVER TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF E
VT DURING THE DAY AND EVEN FILTER DOWN INTO THE CVLY AND PORTIONS OF
N NY. FAIRLY NICE DAY OVERALL ON TAP...W/ EXCEPTION BEING BLW NORMAL
TEMPS IN AREAS SEEING LOW CLD SHIELD...ESPECIALLY IN E VT. GOING
INTO THE EVENING HRS...RIDGE TO OUR N AND E SLIDES FURTHER
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING CWA TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME. CLDS
ON THE INCR FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS GOING INTO OVERNGT HRS AS SFC
LOW WORKS N ALONG THE COAST. MDLS A BIT DISCREPANT AS TO THE
NORTHWARD PUSH OF PRECIP/CLDS INTO THE AREA BFR MVG E OUT TO SEA. W/
EFFECTS OF BLOCKING RIDGE STILL EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF KEEPING BULK PRECIP OVER SC
VT...AND A SL CHANCE FOR CENTRAL AREAS FOR PRECIP. SOME CD AIR
INITIALLY AS A RESULT OF CLR SKIES IN SOME AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP SOME BFR ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...SO WILL MENTION A FEW HRS
WHERE --SW TO MIX W/RAIN SHOWERS(WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC LOW MVS OFFSHORE SLOWLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ENE FLOW OVER THE REGION AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK DOWN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH EASTERLY FETCH STILL EXPECT
CLD COVER TO REMAIN AS LOW EXITS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -RW
THRU MIDDAY AND BECM CLR BY THE EVNEING HRS. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LKS REGION. MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER ON APPROACH OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO RIDGE PLACEMENT. HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA DRY
WITH EXCEPTION BEING SLV AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF DACKS...ALTHOUGH
GD PORTION OF CWA WILL SEE INCR IN MID/HIGH CLDS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURS
MORNING...WITH MAJORITY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. SO I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY....THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF LOW DEVELOPING OFF CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE
SLOWS THINGS DOWN...GIVING THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA BEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON THANKSGIVING.
ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND WHICH KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THURSDAY...AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
NEAR LONG ISLAND OR THE BENCH MARK...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING BACK
INTO ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...ESPECIALLY POINTS WEST AND
SOUTH...SPREADING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR...AND CONSEQUENTLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...IS VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL HUG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
WITH A
POSITION NEAR DOWNEAST MAINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT WE REMAIN UNDER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND UNDER N TO NW FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY....ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
POINTS JUST WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. AS THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST
AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER/CEILING CONDITIONS REMAINS THE MOST
PROBLEMATIC ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST. LOW CLDS AT MVFR HEIGHTS HAVE HUNG
TOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREENS.
DONT EXPECT ANY BIG CHANGES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. OTHER POCKET
OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS HAS BEEN IN THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. KMSS HAS BEEN MOST IMPACTED WITH OBS GOING AS LOW
AS 1/4SM OVC001. ALTHOUGH VSBYS THERE MAY BRIEFLY COME UP TO 3-5SM
FOR A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOST OF THE NEXT 12-18HRS TO
FEATURE VSBYS <1SM. ACROSS REST OF NRN NY/VT...GENERALLY VFR. KMPV
JUST ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LOW CLOUDS. SUSPECT THEY WILL
REMAIN MVFR BUT COULD BRIEFLY BREAK OUT INTO VFR. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS OVERNIGHT. THINK WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS
WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE. GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 3-5SM AND
CEILINGS 015-025. HOWEVER LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE FOR KMSS...KSLK AND
KMPV. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF -SHRA OR DZ ACROSS FAR SRN VT AFTER
06Z...HOWEVER KEPT IT OUT OF KRUT TAF ATTM.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TUESDAY AFTN/OVERNIGHT...MVFR. LOCAL IFR IN PATCHY FOG
WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR
THURSDAY...MVFR. POSSIBLE -SHRA
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN WIDESPREAD RA
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SHSN
&&
.CLIMATE...
AS OF 1235 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW A
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW BACK IN MID OCTOBER...THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY HAS NOT YET HAD ITS FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW
EVENT OF THE SEASON. FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST
MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS NOVEMBER 6TH. SO WHERE DOES THIS LATE 1ST
MEASURABLE SNOW COMPARE TO THE RECORD BOOKS? HERE ARE THE 10
LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...NASH
CLIMATE...NASH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231750
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1250 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RETREAT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE TOWARDS MORE
WINTRY WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. 11-3 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF
INCREASING STRATUS WORKING NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK STATE IN WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LOW STRATUS PUSHING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. AREAS
WHICH REMAIN CLEAR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE.
ONCE ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE AS STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EASTWARD. CLOUDINESS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SREF/MOS BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO GET SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT FORMING A COASTAL LOW. THIS SHOULD
TAKE MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. THERE IS STILL A
QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
GET ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE COASTAL LOW PUSHING TO NEAR CAPE COD
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH AND
EASTERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH THIS FEATURE IN RESPECT TO TIMING AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. LATEST
00Z/23 GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON QPF/POPS AND ONCE AGAIN FOCUSING
MOST OF THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE. TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THIS WILL JUST LEAVE A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT FROM A
DE-AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS AND GO LOW
CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE TUG HILL REGION. HAVE KEPT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY WITH LESS NORTHERN EXTENT ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ONCE AGAIN...A COMMON OCCURRENCE AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY PRECIP WILL END BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES...BUT CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM
HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S
WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO SLOW THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP BEING
RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON
THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL BACK OFF TO LOW CHANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE MODEL CHANGES. IF THE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY BE REMOVED FOR THANKSGIVING. IT NOW
APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING BY DAYS 5-7. A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN
STRONG COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UTILIZING A
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...
APPARENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH AMERICAN RADIOSONDE
NETWORK...MODEL FORECASTS SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH CAUTION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z/23 MODELS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WELL INLAND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH LITTLE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...BRINGING
IN COLDER TEMPS AND WRAP AROUND PRECIP ALMOST 24 HOURS FASTER THAN
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/23 NAVY NOGAPS IS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF. AT THIS TIME RANGE...LITTLE DETAIL WILL BE OFFERED IN THE
GRIDS WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP TO
BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS INTO
THE AREA AND BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MORE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL INTRODUCE
MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE HWO. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...THE
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK HAS BEEN BLOCKING THE ENCROACHMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
TRYING TO INVADE THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AS THE ATTENDANT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES LOW. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 00Z TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AFTER 06Z TO 08Z ACROSS WESTERN NY...AFFECTING KJHW/KBUF/KIAG
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION
WELL OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KALY 231750
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON...UPDATE TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA. NOON TEMPS HAVE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED FORECAST MAXS IN SOME
LOCALES. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING TEMPS
TO JUMP SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...BUT DID ALLOW FOR 2-3 DEGREES MORE
ON NOON TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH...INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ...AND "HINTS" OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH...INDUCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SETUP A
FEW TIMES THIS PAST FALL...AND IN SOME CASES...WAS ENOUGH TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM EVEN WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS CASE IS THAT PWAT VALUES DON`T GET ALL THAT
HIGH...(1/2-3/4 INCHES). ALSO...AND PROBABLY MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS MIGHT REMAIN
MAINLY ICE-FREE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SIZE OF THE WATER DROPLETS
AND CONSEQUENCE ACCUMULATION OF WATER (SINCE THIS IS OF COURSE A
NON-TROPIC ENVIRONMENT). THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW SINCE H850 HPA
AND H925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WENT HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE
PROBLEM IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR THE CLOUDS TO GO AWAY? THE GFS
WOULD DICTATE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WE DO NOT BUY THIS
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER CLEARING NAM HAS CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE. AFTER
ALL...NOV IS ALBANY/S CLOUDIEST MONTH AND THUS FAR...THIS MONTH AS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN
CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. WITH A VERY
LOW SUN ANGLE...IT IS HARD TO BREAK UP CLOUDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND WITH NO GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION OR DRYING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCATTERED. FOR THAT REASON...WENT LOWER THAN EVEN THE
NORMALLY COOLER MET NOS...UNDERCUTTING THEM BY A DEGREE OR SO. SINCE
DRYING LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...TEMPERATURES OVER THE
DACKS WILL PROBABLY GET AS HIGH (IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER) THAN TEMPS
SAY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS WILL
REFORM UNDERNEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T GIVE A CLEAR
SIGNAL WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE COLDER MAV NOS AND CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY. DID HOWEVER...ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO DROP IN
THE 30-35 RANGE...EXCEPT 20S UP NORTH.
WEDNESDAY IS OF COURSE THE BIG TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA LOOK NEARLY OPTIMAL IN THAT
WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. (WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY). THE DAY COULD START
OUT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN "MIX" OUT AT ALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
50-55 IN THE VALLEYS...45-50 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR WITH DEVELOPING
MID-WEST/GREAT LAKES TROUGH TOWARD THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. POTENT
PACIFIC WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LONGITUDE 130-150W AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 40N.
MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE DATA REVEALS
TOO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NARROWING WITH 500MB AND SFC STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE CLOSING WITH VALUES LESS THAN 20MB. WITH THAT
SAID...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY YET THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EVOLVES
UPSTREAM...SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST THANKSGIVING EVENING INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE 1 INCH. WITH THESE VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS...RAINFALL
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. AT THIS
TIME...THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MORE LIQUID THAN SOLID AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WEATHER GRIDS/FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE SURE TO ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPENING ACCORDINGLY
INTO A NOR-EASTER. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THICKNESSES FALL
QUICKLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MIXED WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE REGIONS
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET PINNED DOWN
ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN EXPECTED VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AT BEST BE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY...WITH
MAINLY 30S EXPECTED. WEATHER IMPROVES SUNDAY AS THE NOR-EASTER
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE
REGION. PTSUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH A
COUPLE DEGREE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KALB TO START THE PERIOD WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KPOU HAS FILLED IN WITH MVFR CIGS
AS OF 1745Z. MVFR CLDS APPROACHING KGFL...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
THROUGH 22Z.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ARRIVES LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS FOLLOWING THIS
EVENING. THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...ESP AT KGFL WITH LIGHTER WINDS RESULTING IN IFR
VSBYS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO ONLY BE VCSH AT KGFL WHILE MAIN SHIELD
OF PRECIP WILL REACH KPOU THIS AFTERNOON AND KALB THIS EVENING.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT BUT PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING...FURTHER IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N/NE AT 3-6KTS...DISSIPATING TO LGT
AND VRB OVERNIGHT. LATE TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE N TO NE AROUND 5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NT-SAT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE THU THRU SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD
OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KGS
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/KGS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231750
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1250 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RETREAT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE TOWARDS MORE
WINTRY WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. 11-3 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF
INCREASING STRATUS WORKING NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK STATE IN WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LOW STRATUS PUSHING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. AREAS
WHICH REMAIN CLEAR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE.
ONCE ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE AS STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EASTWARD. CLOUDINESS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SREF/MOS BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO GET SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT FORMING A COASTAL LOW. THIS SHOULD
TAKE MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. THERE IS STILL A
QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
GET ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE COASTAL LOW PUSHING TO NEAR CAPE COD
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH AND
EASTERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH THIS FEATURE IN RESPECT TO TIMING AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. LATEST
00Z/23 GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON QPF/POPS AND ONCE AGAIN FOCUSING
MOST OF THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE. TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THIS WILL JUST LEAVE A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT FROM A
DE-AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS AND GO LOW
CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE TUG HILL REGION. HAVE KEPT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY WITH LESS NORTHERN EXTENT ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ONCE AGAIN...A COMMON OCCURRENCE AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY PRECIP WILL END BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES...BUT CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM
HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S
WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO SLOW THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP BEING
RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON
THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL BACK OFF TO LOW CHANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE MODEL CHANGES. IF THE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY BE REMOVED FOR THANKSGIVING. IT NOW
APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING BY DAYS 5-7. A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN
STRONG COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UTILIZING A
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...
APPARENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH AMERICAN RADIOSONDE
NETWORK...MODEL FORECASTS SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH CAUTION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z/23 MODELS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WELL INLAND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH LITTLE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...BRINGING
IN COLDER TEMPS AND WRAP AROUND PRECIP ALMOST 24 HOURS FASTER THAN
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/23 NAVY NOGAPS IS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF. AT THIS TIME RANGE...LITTLE DETAIL WILL BE OFFERED IN THE
GRIDS WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP TO
BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS INTO
THE AREA AND BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MORE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL INTRODUCE
MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE HWO. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...THE
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NARROW BAND OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW YORK HAS BEEN BLOCKING THE ENCROACHMENT OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS
TRYING TO INVADE THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN AS THE ATTENDANT HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FARTHER TO
THE EAST...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES LOW. MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 00Z TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING A BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AFTER 06Z TO 08Z ACROSS WESTERN NY...AFFECTING KJHW/KBUF/KIAG
BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION
WELL OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KALY 231750
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON...UPDATE TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA. NOON TEMPS HAVE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED FORECAST MAXS IN SOME
LOCALES. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING TEMPS
TO JUMP SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...BUT DID ALLOW FOR 2-3 DEGREES MORE
ON NOON TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH...INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ...AND "HINTS" OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH...INDUCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SETUP A
FEW TIMES THIS PAST FALL...AND IN SOME CASES...WAS ENOUGH TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM EVEN WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS CASE IS THAT PWAT VALUES DON`T GET ALL THAT
HIGH...(1/2-3/4 INCHES). ALSO...AND PROBABLY MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS MIGHT REMAIN
MAINLY ICE-FREE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SIZE OF THE WATER DROPLETS
AND CONSEQUENCE ACCUMULATION OF WATER (SINCE THIS IS OF COURSE A
NON-TROPIC ENVIRONMENT). THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW SINCE H850 HPA
AND H925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WENT HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE
PROBLEM IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR THE CLOUDS TO GO AWAY? THE GFS
WOULD DICTATE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WE DO NOT BUY THIS
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER CLEARING NAM HAS CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE. AFTER
ALL...NOV IS ALBANY/S CLOUDIEST MONTH AND THUS FAR...THIS MONTH AS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN
CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. WITH A VERY
LOW SUN ANGLE...IT IS HARD TO BREAK UP CLOUDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND WITH NO GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION OR DRYING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCATTERED. FOR THAT REASON...WENT LOWER THAN EVEN THE
NORMALLY COOLER MET NOS...UNDERCUTTING THEM BY A DEGREE OR SO. SINCE
DRYING LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...TEMPERATURES OVER THE
DACKS WILL PROBABLY GET AS HIGH (IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER) THAN TEMPS
SAY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS WILL
REFORM UNDERNEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T GIVE A CLEAR
SIGNAL WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE COLDER MAV NOS AND CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY. DID HOWEVER...ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO DROP IN
THE 30-35 RANGE...EXCEPT 20S UP NORTH.
WEDNESDAY IS OF COURSE THE BIG TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA LOOK NEARLY OPTIMAL IN THAT
WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. (WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY). THE DAY COULD START
OUT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN "MIX" OUT AT ALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
50-55 IN THE VALLEYS...45-50 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR WITH DEVELOPING
MID-WEST/GREAT LAKES TROUGH TOWARD THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. POTENT
PACIFIC WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LONGITUDE 130-150W AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 40N.
MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE DATA REVEALS
TOO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NARROWING WITH 500MB AND SFC STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE CLOSING WITH VALUES LESS THAN 20MB. WITH THAT
SAID...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY YET THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EVOLVES
UPSTREAM...SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST THANKSGIVING EVENING INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE 1 INCH. WITH THESE VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS...RAINFALL
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. AT THIS
TIME...THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MORE LIQUID THAN SOLID AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WEATHER GRIDS/FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE SURE TO ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPENING ACCORDINGLY
INTO A NOR-EASTER. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THICKNESSES FALL
QUICKLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MIXED WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE REGIONS
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET PINNED DOWN
ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN EXPECTED VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AT BEST BE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY...WITH
MAINLY 30S EXPECTED. WEATHER IMPROVES SUNDAY AS THE NOR-EASTER
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE
REGION. PTSUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH A
COUPLE DEGREE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KALB TO START THE PERIOD WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KPOU HAS FILLED IN WITH MVFR CIGS
AS OF 1745Z. MVFR CLDS APPROACHING KGFL...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
THROUGH 22Z.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ARRIVES LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS FOLLOWING THIS
EVENING. THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...ESP AT KGFL WITH LIGHTER WINDS RESULTING IN IFR
VSBYS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO ONLY BE VCSH AT KGFL WHILE MAIN SHIELD
OF PRECIP WILL REACH KPOU THIS AFTERNOON AND KALB THIS EVENING.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT BUT PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING...FURTHER IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N/NE AT 3-6KTS...DISSIPATING TO LGT
AND VRB OVERNIGHT. LATE TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE N TO NE AROUND 5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NT-SAT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE THU THRU SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD
OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KGS
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/KGS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11
000
FXUS61 KALY 231748
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1248 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON...UPDATE TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA. NOON TEMPS HAVE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED FORECAST MAXS IN SOME
LOCALES. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING TEMPS
TO JUMP SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...BUT DID ALLOW FOR 2-3 DEGREES MORE
ON NOON TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH...INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ...AND "HINTS" OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH...INDUCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SETUP A
FEW TIMES THIS PAST FALL...AND IN SOME CASES...WAS ENOUGH TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM EVEN WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS CASE IS THAT PWAT VALUES DON`T GET ALL THAT
HIGH...(1/2-3/4 INCHES). ALSO...AND PROBABLY MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS MIGHT REMAIN
MAINLY ICE-FREE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SIZE OF THE WATER DROPLETS
AND CONSEQUENCE ACCUMULATION OF WATER (SINCE THIS IS OF COURSE A
NON-TROPIC ENVIRONMENT). THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW SINCE H850 HPA
AND H925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WENT HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE
PROBLEM IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR THE CLOUDS TO GO AWAY? THE GFS
WOULD DICTATE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WE DO NOT BUY THIS
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER CLEARING NAM HAS CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE. AFTER
ALL...NOV IS ALBANY/S CLOUDIEST MONTH AND THUS FAR...THIS MONTH AS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN
CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. WITH A VERY
LOW SUN ANGLE...IT IS HARD TO BREAK UP CLOUDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND WITH NO GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION OR DRYING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCATTERED. FOR THAT REASON...WENT LOWER THAN EVEN THE
NORMALLY COOLER MET NOS...UNDERCUTTING THEM BY A DEGREE OR SO. SINCE
DRYING LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...TEMPERATURES OVER THE
DACKS WILL PROBABLY GET AS HIGH (IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER) THAN TEMPS
SAY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS WILL
REFORM UNDERNEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T GIVE A CLEAR
SIGNAL WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE COLDER MAV NOS AND CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY. DID HOWEVER...ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO DROP IN
THE 30-35 RANGE...EXCEPT 20S UP NORTH.
WEDNESDAY IS OF COURSE THE BIG TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA LOOK NEARLY OPTIMAL IN THAT
WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. (WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY). THE DAY COULD START
OUT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN "MIX" OUT AT ALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
50-55 IN THE VALLEYS...45-50 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR WITH DEVELOPING
MID-WEST/GREAT LAKES TROUGH TOWARD THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. POTENT
PACIFIC WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LONGITUDE 130-150W AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 40N.
MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE DATA REVEALS
TOO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NARROWING WITH 500MB AND SFC STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE CLOSING WITH VALUES LESS THAN 20MB. WITH THAT
SAID...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY YET THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EVOLVES
UPSTREAM...SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST THANKSGIVING EVENING INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE 1 INCH. WITH THESE VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS...RAINFALL
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. AT THIS
TIME...THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MORE LIQUID THAN SOLID AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WEATHER GRIDS/FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE SURE TO ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPENING ACCORDINGLY
INTO A NOR-EASTER. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THICKNESSES FALL
QUICKLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MIXED WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE REGIONS
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET PINNED DOWN
ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN EXPECTED VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AT BEST BE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY...WITH
MAINLY 30S EXPECTED. WEATHER IMPROVES SUNDAY AS THE NOR-EASTER
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE
REGION. PTSUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH A
COUPLE DEGREE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TO START THE PERIOD WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CLDS
APPROACHING KGFL...HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO THROUGH 22Z.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ARRIVES LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS FOLLOWING THIS
EVENING. THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...ESP AT KGFL WITH LIGHTER WINDS RESULTING IN IFR
VSBYS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO ONLY BE VCSH AT KGFL WHILE MAIN SHIELD
OF PRECIP WILL REACH KPOU THIS AFTERNOON AND KALB THIS EVENING.
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT BUT PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING...FURTHER IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE N/NE AT 3-6KTS...DISSIPATING TO LGT
AND VRB OVERNIGHT. LATE TUESDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE N TO NE AROUND 5KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NT-SAT...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE THU THRU SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD
OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KGS
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/KGS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11
000
FXUS61 KALY 231731
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1231 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF NOON...UPDATE TO BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
CWA. NOON TEMPS HAVE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED FORECAST MAXS IN SOME
LOCALES. GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND CLOUD COVER...NOT EXPECTING TEMPS
TO JUMP SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...BUT DID ALLOW FOR 2-3 DEGREES MORE
ON NOON TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH...INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ...AND "HINTS" OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH...INDUCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SETUP A
FEW TIMES THIS PAST FALL...AND IN SOME CASES...WAS ENOUGH TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM EVEN WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS CASE IS THAT PWAT VALUES DON`T GET ALL THAT
HIGH...(1/2-3/4 INCHES). ALSO...AND PROBABLY MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS MIGHT REMAIN
MAINLY ICE-FREE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SIZE OF THE WATER DROPLETS
AND CONSEQUENCE ACCUMULATION OF WATER (SINCE THIS IS OF COURSE A
NON-TROPIC ENVIRONMENT). THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW SINCE H850 HPA
AND H925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WENT HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE
PROBLEM IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR THE CLOUDS TO GO AWAY? THE GFS
WOULD DICTATE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WE DO NOT BUY THIS
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER CLEARING NAM HAS CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE. AFTER
ALL...NOV IS ALBANY/S CLOUDIEST MONTH AND THUS FAR...THIS MONTH AS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN
CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. WITH A VERY
LOW SUN ANGLE...IT IS HARD TO BREAK UP CLOUDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND WITH NO GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION OR DRYING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCATTERED. FOR THAT REASON...WENT LOWER THAN EVEN THE
NORMALLY COOLER MET NOS...UNDERCUTTING THEM BY A DEGREE OR SO. SINCE
DRYING LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...TEMPERATURES OVER THE
DACKS WILL PROBABLY GET AS HIGH (IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER) THAN TEMPS
SAY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS WILL
REFORM UNDERNEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T GIVE A CLEAR
SIGNAL WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE COLDER MAV NOS AND CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY. DID HOWEVER...ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO DROP IN
THE 30-35 RANGE...EXCEPT 20S UP NORTH.
WEDNESDAY IS OF COURSE THE BIG TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA LOOK NEARLY OPTIMAL IN THAT
WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. (WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY). THE DAY COULD START
OUT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN "MIX" OUT AT ALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
50-55 IN THE VALLEYS...45-50 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR WITH DEVELOPING
MID-WEST/GREAT LAKES TROUGH TOWARD THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. POTENT
PACIFIC WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LONGITUDE 130-150W AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 40N.
MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE DATA REVEALS
TOO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NARROWING WITH 500MB AND SFC STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE CLOSING WITH VALUES LESS THAN 20MB. WITH THAT
SAID...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY YET THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EVOLVES
UPSTREAM...SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST THANKSGIVING EVENING INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE 1 INCH. WITH THESE VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS...RAINFALL
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. AT THIS
TIME...THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MORE LIQUID THAN SOLID AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WEATHER GRIDS/FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE SURE TO ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPENING ACCORDINGLY
INTO A NOR-EASTER. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THICKNESSES FALL
QUICKLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MIXED WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE REGIONS
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET PINNED DOWN
ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN EXPECTED VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AT BEST BE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY...WITH
MAINLY 30S EXPECTED. WEATHER IMPROVES SUNDAY AS THE NOR-EASTER
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE
REGION. PTSUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH A
COUPLE DEGREE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND METARS REVEAL MVFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THIS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR KALB-KGFL DUE TO
FOG AS THESE AREAS REMAINED CLEAR BEFORE THE STRATUS DECK ARRIVED.
NOW THE MVFR CIG ARE IN...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO THE VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR KALB-KGFL. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE AND EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ARRIVES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED MVFR CATEGORY WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE AM...MVFR...CHC OF LT RAIN/DZ.
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NT-FRI...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THRU FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD
OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/KGS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KGS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11
000
FXUS61 KALY 231622
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1122 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF ALBANY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM...STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH COVERED THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS OVER PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON
...NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHWESTER HAMILTON COUNTIES. WITH
TIME...THESE AREAS SHOULD FILL IN AS WELL.
FCST MAX TEMPERATURES ON TRACK ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING/S KALB
SOUNDING. HAVE INCREASED CLOUDS FILLING IN A BIT FASTER THAN
ORIGINALLY FCST...AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE. OTHERWISE KEEPING POPS
AS IS SINCE SCT SHOWERS TO THE EAST ON RADAR NOT REACHING GROUND
RIGHT AWAY AS DEWPTS STILL IN THE L/M30S.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST...
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A
BIT...BUT BOTH DO INDICATE (OR AT LEAST IMPLY) THE CLOUDS COULD HANG
TOUCH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY AS AN EASTERLY FLOW MOISTENS
THE COLUMN FROM THE BOTTOM UP. IT LOOKS AS IF THE STRATUS WILL AT
THE VERY LEAST...MAKE ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO INDICATED A BAROCLINIC LEAF
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. CLOSELY EXAMINING IT ALONG WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE THE MAIN STORM OUT TO
SEA....WHILE THE UPPER AIR LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER AIR LOW AND GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LOOKS TO NOT ONLY KEEP US IN CLOUDS TODAY...BUT
EXPECT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST (WHERE POPS LOWER TO SLIGHT/NO
CHANCE).
WITH THE CLOUDS IN PLACE...WE WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT THE MAVS (AND
IN SOME CASES EVEN THE METS) ACROSS THE BOARD. GENERALLY LOOK FOR
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH...INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ...AND "HINTS" OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH...INDUCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SETUP A
FEW TIMES THIS PAST FALL...AND IN SOME CASES...WAS ENOUGH TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM EVEN WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS CASE IS THAT PWAT VALUES DON`T GET ALL THAT
HIGH...(1/2-3/4 INCHES). ALSO...AND PROBABLY MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS MIGHT REMAIN
MAINLY ICE-FREE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SIZE OF THE WATER DROPLETS
AND CONSEQUENCE ACCUMULATION OF WATER (SINCE THIS IS OF COURSE A
NON-TROPIC ENVIRONMENT). THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW SINCE H850 HPA
AND H925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WENT HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE
PROBLEM IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR THE CLOUDS TO GO AWAY? THE GFS
WOULD DICTATE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WE DO NOT BUY THIS
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER CLEARING NAM HAS CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE. AFTER
ALL...NOV IS ALBANY/S CLOUDIEST MONTH AND THUS FAR...THIS MONTH AS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN
CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. WITH A VERY
LOW SUN ANGLE...IT IS HARD TO BREAK UP CLOUDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND WITH NO GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION OR DRYING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCATTERED. FOR THAT REASON...WENT LOWER THAN EVEN THE
NORMALLY COOLER MET NOS...UNDERCUTTING THEM BY A DEGREE OR SO. SINCE
DRYING LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...TEMPERATURES OVER THE
DACKS WILL PROBABLY GET AS HIGH (IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER) THAN TEMPS
SAY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS WILL
REFORM UNDERNEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T GIVE A CLEAR
SIGNAL WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE COLDER MAV NOS AND CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY. DID HOWEVER...ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO DROP IN
THE 30-35 RANGE...EXCEPT 20S UP NORTH.
WEDNESDAY IS OF COURSE THE BIG TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA LOOK NEARLY OPTIMAL IN THAT
WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. (WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY). THE DAY COULD START
OUT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN "MIX" OUT AT ALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
50-55 IN THE VALLEYS...45-50 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR WITH DEVELOPING
MID-WEST/GREAT LAKES TROUGH TOWARD THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. POTENT
PACIFIC WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LONGITUDE 130-150W AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 40N.
MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE DATA REVEALS
TOO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NARROWING WITH 500MB AND SFC STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE CLOSING WITH VALUES LESS THAN 20MB. WITH THAT
SAID...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY YET THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EVOLVES
UPSTREAM...SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST THANKSGIVING EVENING INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE 1 INCH. WITH THESE VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS...RAINFALL
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. AT THIS
TIME...THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MORE LIQUID THAN SOLID AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WEATHER GRIDS/FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE SURE TO ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPENING ACCORDINGLY
INTO A NOR-EASTER. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THICKNESSES FALL
QUICKLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MIXED WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE REGIONS
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET PINNED DOWN
ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN EXPECTED VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AT BEST BE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY...WITH
MAINLY 30S EXPECTED. WEATHER IMPROVES SUNDAY AS THE NOR-EASTER
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE
REGION. PTSUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH A
COUPLE DEGREE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND METARS REVEAL MVFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THIS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR KALB-KGFL DUE TO
FOG AS THESE AREAS REMAINED CLEAR BEFORE THE STRATUS DECK ARRIVED.
NOW THE MVFR CIG ARE IN...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO THE VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR KALB-KGFL. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE AND EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ARRIVES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED MVFR CATEGORY WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE AM...MVFR...CHC OF LT RAIN/DZ.
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NT-FRI...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THRU FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD
OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KGS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KGS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/11
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231613
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1113 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RETREAT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE TOWARDS MORE
WINTRY WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. 11-3 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF
INCREASING STRATUS WORKING NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK STATE IN WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LOW STRATUS PUSHING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. AREAS
WHICH REMAIN CLEAR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE.
ONCE ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE AS STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EASTWARD. CLOUDINESS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SREF/MOS BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO GET SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT FORMING A COASTAL LOW. THIS SHOULD
TAKE MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. THERE IS STILL A
QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
GET ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE COASTAL LOW PUSHING TO NEAR CAPE COD
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH AND
EASTERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH THIS FEATURE IN RESPECT TO TIMING AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. LATEST
00Z/23 GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON QPF/POPS AND ONCE AGAIN FOCUSING
MOST OF THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE. TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THIS WILL JUST LEAVE A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT FROM A
DE-AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS AND GO LOW
CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE TUG HILL REGION. HAVE KEPT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY WITH LESS NORTHERN EXTENT ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ONCE AGAIN...A COMMON OCCURRENCE AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY PRECIP WILL END BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES...BUT CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM
HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S
WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO SLOW THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP BEING
RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON
THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL BACK OFF TO LOW CHANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE MODEL CHANGES. IF THE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY BE REMOVED FOR THANKSGIVING. IT NOW
APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING BY DAYS 5-7. A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN
STRONG COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UTILIZING A
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...
APPARENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH AMERICAN RADIOSONDE
NETWORK...MODEL FORECASTS SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH CAUTION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z/23 MODELS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WELL INLAND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH LITTLE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...BRINGING
IN COLDER TEMPS AND WRAP AROUND PRECIP ALMOST 24 HOURS FASTER THAN
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/23 NAVY NOGAPS IS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF. AT THIS TIME RANGE...LITTLE DETAIL WILL BE OFFERED IN THE
GRIDS WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP TO
BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS INTO
THE AREA AND BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MORE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL INTRODUCE
MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE HWO. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...THE
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. IFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED AT KJHW FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BUT THE STRATUS HAS ERODED THERE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS
DECK SHOULD ERODED BEFORE REACHING AND TAF SITES. LIGHT FOG...
GENERALLY 4-5 MILES WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LOW. MID LEVEL CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 00Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER WITH THE CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PUSHING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
REACHING EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS BY 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION
WELL OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND NOV 8
ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL BE
LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT ROC.
THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ARE DEC 3 1899
AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THOSE DATES
AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT BEGINNING LATER
FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE EITHER BUFFALO OR
ROCHESTER LAST SAW MEASURABLE SNOW. THROUGH TODAY, BUFFALO HAS
GONE 229 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR SINCE APRIL 7, 2009.
THIS IS THE 6TH LONGEST STRETCH IN 125 YEARS OF RECORDS. THE
RECORD IS 245 DAYS SET BACK IN 1948. ROCHESTER IS ALSO AT 229 DAYS
WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR THE 7TH LONGEST STRETCH THERE. THE
RECORD IS 260 DAYS SET BACK IN 1952. IF WE REMAIN SNOW FREE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING, BOTH ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO WILL END UP WITH
THE THIRD LONGEST STRETCH OF SNOW FREE DAYS ON RECORD. STAY TUNED.
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...SFM/TAN
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231610
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1012 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM A LOW
MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN TO AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ASIDE FROM
SOME MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT...THE ONLY REAL
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO
ALL AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING...A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
SFC T-TD SPREADS EXPECTED TO GET FAIRLY NARROW WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FINE DAY THIS ATYPICAL NOVEMBER WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...AT LEAST
FOR AWHILE. THE SUN WILL FADE BEHIND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH...BUT THEN GETS SHEARED
NORTHEAST AND EAST AND TAKES MOST IF NOT ALL OF ITS MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST (SEE SHORT TERM-MONDAY NIGHT). WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHC
POPS CATT/ALLEG COS ONLY TWD SUNSET MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL
FOLLOW MILDER MAV/GFS ONES AS SEE NO REASON WHY WE WONT GET SIMILAR
NUMBERS TO TODAY`S (L-M 50S) WITH SIMILAR 850/925MB TEMPS AND ENOUGH
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN EASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
REGION WHILE A MID LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES NE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST TO BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. AT THIS TIME BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF BUF, MNLY ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT SHLD END BY LATER TUESDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN
PTNS OF THE CWA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHLD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEL
PROFILES SHOW PLENY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE HANGING OVER THE REGION
UNDER THE WEAK HIGH SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLEARING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS/ECMWF IN BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. HAVE
GONE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING IN THREAT OF SHWRS TO AREAS
FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST IN THE MRNG AND THEN REACHING AREAS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO DURG THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHLD CONTINUE WITH ABV NORMAL HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED. GENLY
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TUE AND LOW TO MID 50S WED. LOWS MON NGT SHLD
RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICIES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THE LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LKS WED
NGT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY BUT 850 TEMPS SHLD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP DURG THIS PERIOD TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT IN THE
LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DEVELOP A MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FARTHER WEST,
INLAND OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS MAY STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURG FRIDAY WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY, WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW EXPECT
CHC RAIN/SNOW SHWRS WITH HIGHS GENLY UPPER 30S TO ARND 40.
WILL CONTINUE CHC SNOW SHWRS SAT NGT SE OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO AS
COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OUTSIDE OF THESE
AREAS. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2330Z...TWO LINGERING PATCHES OF STRATUS...ONE NEAR KROC AND
ONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...CONTINUE TO ERODE IN
PLACE WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CLOUD LAYER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK APART OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 02Z...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WITH
ONLY A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND SFC DEWPOINTS STILL
RUNNING A BIT HIGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT.
ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUNRISE AND THE RETURN OF DIURNAL HEATING ON MONDAY...LEAVING
BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PORTION
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND NOV 8
ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL BE
LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT ROC.
THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW ARE DEC 3
1899 AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THOSE
DATES AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT BEGINNING
LATER FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION, ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE EITHER BUFFALO OR
ROCHESTER LAST SAW MEASURABLE SNOW. THROUGH TODAY, BUFFALO HAS
GONE 229 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR SINCE APRIL 7, 2009.
THIS IS THE 6TH LONGEST STRETCH IN 125 YEARS OF RECORDS. THE
RECORD IS 245 DAYS SET BACK IN 1948. ROCHESTER IS ALSO AT 229 DAYS
WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOW, OR THE 7TH LONGEST STRETCH THERE. THE
RECORD IS 260 DAYS SET BACK IN 1952. IF WE REMAIN SNOW FREE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING, BOTH ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO WILL END UP WITH
THE THIRD LONGEST STRETCH OF SNOW FREE DAYS ON RECORD. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...JJP
CLIMATE...SFM/TAN
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231600
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1100 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO DECREASE POPS FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS AS NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CURRENT RADAR SUPPORTS
ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. INCREASED POPS TO THE EAST AS THE
SHOWERS OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT HAVE
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...ALSO SEE SOME THETA E ADVECTION AT H850
IN THE NAM AND GFS...INDICATING ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET REMAINING OFFSHORE...DO NOT EXPECT
FORCING TO BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
RAIN AND FOG THIS AFT. TOWARD 22Z...CEILINGS LOWER TO HIGH END IFR.
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN THIS HAPPENING AND CEILINGS MAY WELL REMAIN
MVFR.
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/12Z 03011KT
23/13Z 03011KT
23/14Z 03011KT
23/15Z 03011KT
23/16Z 03012KT
23/17Z 03012KT
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03012KT
23/21Z 03012KT
23/22Z 03012KT
23/23Z 03012KT
KJFK...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KLGA...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KTEB...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KHPN...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KSWF...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KISP...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG
EARLY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING
TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRES WORKING NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS MORNING...THEN
SPREADING WEST BY AFT. QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...BG/JP
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...JST
000
FXUS61 KBGM 231526
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1026 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS STORM RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM...IT/S YET ANOTHER TRICKY DAY DESPITE BEING UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WAS TRYING TO DISSIPATE OVER
CNY AND NEPA, YET WAS ALSO SPREADING INTO AREAS THAT HAD STARTED
OUT CLEAR. MORE PREDICTABLE CLOUDINESS ALSO CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM. HAVE MADE SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER TO INDICATE SUNNY VS CLOUD AREAS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THAT EXISTING CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME AROUND MIDDAY, THEN BE
REPLACED BY MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. OVERALL...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
WOULD BE A GOOD DESCRIPTOR TODAY.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. WE
WERE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE LAST NIGHT AND HAVE OBVIOUSLY STARTED
WITH A SLOWER REBOUND THIS MORNING. CURRENT FCST TEMPS SEEM A BIT
OPTIMISTIC AND HAVE TRIMMED BACK BY ABOUT 3 OR SO DEGREES WITH
TEMPS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER IS
THICKEST AND MOST PERSISTENT. SUNNY AREAS OVER NEPA THAT HAVE
WARMED QUICKLY WILL LEVEL OFF AS NEXT AREA OF CLOUDS ARRIVES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH MAY TRY TO MOVE IN A FEW SHOWERS OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD DUSK ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS. EVEN HERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MAIN THREAT
FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH FINALLY
RETREATS ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW THE MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FOR MOST...BUT UP TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE EAST BY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST AND FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE AREA. A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN
STORM SYSTEMS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A NEW AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST UP THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THICKNESS VALUES WELL TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT
RAIN. LOOKS LIKE ALL THE FUN IS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE MID WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE SFC LOW
IS SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL EJECT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA.
ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SISTER SFC LOW THAT TRACKS INLAND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IN
THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT TRACK. HOW THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND A LITTLE LESS OF A SISTER
LOW AND THIS COULD BECOME A STRONG COASTAL STORM. THE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS FRIDAY
PROGRESSES...COLDER TEMPS MOVE IN AND THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. 1000-500 THICKNESS DROP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
TO BELOW 540DM AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND 530DM ON SATURDAY. THE ISSUE
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS
VT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A TYPICAL TRACK.
THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW STAYING ALONG THE COAST ALL THE WAY UP PAST
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THIS TRACK FOR NOW. WITH THIS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS
WEEKEND..WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY RUN TO RUN ON INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF
THE PRECIP.
AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD...THE SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -4 OR -5 C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE WRAP AROUND
PRECIP FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW DOES QUICKLY MOVE OUT
AND THE SFC FLOW DIES DOWN. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST. KAVP HAS HAD MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND KBGM HAS NOW
HAD CEILINGS MOVE IN THAT ARE ALSO MVFR. THEY HAVE BEGUN BOUNCING
BETWEEN CLR AND MVFR AND WILL LIKELY DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. THIS HAS ALLOWED KELM TO
BECOME FOGGED IN WITH DENSE FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. KSYR AND KRME
HAVE BEEN VFR ALL NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OTHER NON TAF AIRPORTS HAVE
ALSO REPORTED SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION...SO LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG IS A REAL POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO
LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW FAR THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL
MOVE. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON IT AT ALL...AND DAYBREAK
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IT...AT LEAST STOP ITS PROGRESSION AND
ALLOW IT TO LIFT SOME.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THIS EVENING HOWEVER ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO MVFR. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED AS MIST AND/OR FOG FORM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT
IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE
US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS
SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY
(11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT.
* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.
TOP 5
1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231453
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
952 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 952 AM EST MONDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO FIRST TWO PERIODS OF THE
FCST...MAINLY TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN SKY COVER...AND TO KEEP
ANY PCPN LATER TONIGHT IN LIQUID FORM. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING AS MEAN SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THIS HAS ALLOWED MOIST LOW LVL CLOUDINESS OF MARITIME ORIGIN TO
CREEP NORTHWARD...ESP ACROSS OUR ERN VT COUNTIES. WITH PRONOUNCED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
ESSENTIALLY HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN CREEP
STEADILY NORTHWARD BY THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY ALOFT. BASED OFF EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND MARINE-MODIFIED
AIRMASS ATOP THE AREA TONIGHT...BELIEVE MIN TEMPS SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...ESP SOUTH. THUS ANY PCPN THAT MAY OCCUR
WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL SYSTEM ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES WOULD BE LIGHT
AND IN THE LIQUID FORM. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND OTHER THAN
CHGS NOTED ABOVE...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED ATTM. ENJOY THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 310 AM EST MONDAY...
SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER N MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS
SET UP EASTERLY FLOW FOR GD PORTION OF NEW ENG REGION. THIS HAS
ALLOWED LL CLD DECK TO PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY
LATEST IR SAT PIC. EXPECTING THIS CLD COVER TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF E
VT DURING THE DAY AND EVEN FILTER DOWN INTO THE CVLY AND PORTIONS OF
N NY. FAIRLY NICE DAY OVERALL ON TAP...W/ EXCEPTION BEING BLW NORMAL
TEMPS IN AREAS SEEING LOW CLD SHIELD...ESPECIALLY IN E VT. GOING
INTO THE EVENING HRS...RIDGE TO OUR N AND E SLIDES FURTHER
OFFSHORE...ALLOWING CWA TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME. CLDS
ON THE INCR FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS GOING INTO OVERNGT HRS AS SFC
LOW WORKS N ALONG THE COAST. MDLS A BIT DISCREPANT AS TO THE
NORTHWARD PUSH OF PRECIP/CLDS INTO THE AREA BFR MVG E OUT TO SEA. W/
EFFECTS OF BLOCKING RIDGE STILL EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF KEEPING BULK PRECIP OVER SC
VT...AND A SL CHANCE FOR CENTRAL AREAS FOR PRECIP. SOME CD AIR
INITIALLY AS A RESULT OF CLR SKIES IN SOME AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP SOME BFR ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...SO WILL MENTION A FEW HRS
WHERE --SW TO MIX W/RAIN SHOWERS(WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC LOW MVS OFFSHORE SLOWLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ENE FLOW OVER THE REGION AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK DOWN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH EASTERLY FETCH STILL EXPECT
CLD COVER TO REMAIN AS LOW EXITS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -RW
THRU MIDDAY AND BECM CLR BY THE EVNEING HRS. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LKS REGION. MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER ON APPROACH OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO RIDGE PLACEMENT. HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA DRY
WITH EXCEPTION BEING SLV AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF DACKS...ALTHOUGH
GD PORTION OF CWA WILL SEE INCR IN MID/HIGH CLDS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURS
MORNING...WITH MAJORITY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. SO I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY....THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF LOW DEVELOPING OFF CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE
SLOWS THINGS DOWN...GIVING THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA BEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON THANKSGIVING.
ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND WHICH KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THURSDAY...AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
NEAR LONG ISLAND OR THE BENCH MARK...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING BACK
INTO ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...ESPECIALLY POINTS WEST AND
SOUTH...SPREADING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR...AND CONSEQUENTLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...IS VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL HUG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
WITH A
POSITION NEAR DOWNEAST MAINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT WE REMAIN UNDER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND UNDER N TO NW FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY....ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
POINTS JUST WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. AS THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST
AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AN INVERSION ONCE AGAIN KEEPS MOISTURE
TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS AT MOST LOCATOINS. BR AND OR MVFR STRATUS
REMAIN AT KMPV...KRUT...KMSS...AT THIS HOUR...WITH FLIGHT
CATEGORIES RAISING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. KBTV IS SKC WITH A BIT IF
MIST IN THE AIR. KPBG HAS IFR CEILINGS DUE TO LAKE STRATUS... THIS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY 14Z AND VFR BY 16Z. KSLK IS LIFR IN FG...AND
WILL SLOWLY RAISE TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SSE 5-10 KT
TODAY...AND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VAR TONIGHT. IN S AND E VT
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM A COASTAL LOW MEANS SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR.
THE GREENS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLDS AND CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
BY 00Z AT KMPV...KRUT...AND EVEN IN KSLK. VERY LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN KRUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE...AND
RETURN OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION...WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS TO MVFR IN
KBTV AND KPGB AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR TUE MORNING BECOMING VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231426
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
926 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SE CT/ERN LI. THE QUESTION FOR
TODAY IS THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAIN? NUMERICAL MODEL SUITE IS
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PCPN DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS...THEN SPREADING WEST (SIMILAR TO THE WAY THE
STRATUS DEVELOPED).
LIFT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION
SEEN IN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL NAM AND GFS PROFILES THAT RESULTS IN
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THUS, FEEL THIS IS AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TYPE OF PCPN.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING IN LIGHT
RAIN AND FOG THIS AFT. TOWARD 22Z...CEILINGS LOWER TO HIGH END IFR.
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN THIS HAPPENING AND CEILINGS MAY WELL REMAIN
MVFR.
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/12Z 03011KT
23/13Z 03011KT
23/14Z 03011KT
23/15Z 03011KT
23/16Z 03012KT
23/17Z 03012KT
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03012KT
23/21Z 03012KT
23/22Z 03012KT
23/23Z 03012KT
KJFK...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KLGA...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KTEB...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KHPN...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KSWF...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KISP...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...IFR CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG
EARLY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING
TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRES WORKING NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT THIS MORNING...THEN
SPREADING WEST BY AFT. QPF IS GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...DW
000
FXUS61 KBTV 231212
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER N
MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS SET UP EASTERLY FLOW FOR GD PORTION
OF NEW ENG REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED LL CLD DECK TO PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY LATEST IR SAT PIC. EXPECTING THIS CLD
COVER TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF E VT DURING THE DAY AND EVEN FILTER
DOWN INTO THE CVLY AND PORTIONS OF N NY. FAIRLY NICE DAY OVERALL
ON TAP...W/ EXCEPTION BEING BLW NORMAL TEMPS IN AREAS SEEING LOW
CLD SHIELD...ESPECIALLY IN E VT. GOING INTO THE EVENING
HRS...RIDGE TO OUR N AND E SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING CWA
TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME. CLDS ON THE INCR FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS GOING INTO OVERNGT HRS AS SFC LOW WORKS N
ALONG THE COAST. MDLS A BIT DISCREPANT AS TO THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
PRECIP/CLDS INTO THE AREA BFR MVG E OUT TO SEA. W/ EFFECTS OF
BLOCKING RIDGE STILL EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF KEEPING BULK PRECIP OVER SC VT...AND A SL CHANCE
FOR CENTRAL AREAS FOR PRECIP. SOME CD AIR INITIALLY AS A RESULT OF
CLR SKIES IN SOME AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP SOME BFR
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...SO WILL MENTION A FEW HRS WHERE --SW TO MIX W/
RAIN SHOWERS(WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC LOW MVS OFFSHORE SLOWLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ENE FLOW OVER THE REGION AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK DOWN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH EASTERLY FETCH STILL EXPECT
CLD COVER TO REMAIN AS LOW EXITS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -RW
THRU MIDDAY AND BECM CLR BY THE EVNEING HRS. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LKS REGION. MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER ON APPROACH OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO RIDGE PLACEMENT. HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA DRY
WITH EXCEPTION BEING SLV AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF DACKS...ALTHOUGH
GD PORTION OF CWA WILL SEE INCR IN MID/HIGH CLDS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURS
MORNING...WITH MAJORITY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. SO I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY....THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF LOW DEVELOPING OFF CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE
SLOWS THINGS DOWN...GIVING THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA BEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON THANKSGIVING.
ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND WHICH KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THURSDAY...AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
NEAR LONG ISLAND OR THE BENCH MARK...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING BACK
INTO ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...ESPECIALLY POINTS WEST AND
SOUTH...SPREADING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR...AND CONSEQUENTLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...IS VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL HUG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH A
POSITION NEAR DOWNEAST MAINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT WE REMAIN UNDER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND UNDER N TO NW FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY....ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
POINTS JUST WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. AS THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...AN INVERSION ONCE AGAIN KEEPS MOISTURE
TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS AT MOST LOCATOINS. BR AND OR MVFR STRATUS
REMAIN AT KMPV...KRUT...KMSS...AT THIS HOUR...WITH FLIGHT
CATEGORIES RAISING TO VFR AFTER 16Z. KBTV IS SKC WITH A BIT IF
MIST IN THE AIR. KPBG HAS IFR CEILINGS DUE TO LAKE STRATUS... THIS
WILL LIFT TO MVFR BY 14Z AND VFR BY 16Z. KSLK IS LIFR IN FG...AND
WILL SLOWLY RAISE TO VFR BY 16Z. WINDS ARE GENERALLY SSE 5-10 KT
TODAY...AND WILL DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VAR TONIGHT. IN S AND E VT
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM A COASTAL LOW MEANS SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR.
THE GREENS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLDS AND CLOUDS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
BY 00Z AT KMPV...KRUT...AND EVEN IN KSLK. VERY LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN KRUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE...AND
RETURN OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION...WILL ALSO LOWER CIGS TO MVFR IN
KBTV AND KPGB AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR TUE MORNING BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231146
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
646 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RETREAT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE TOWARDS MORE
WINTRY WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. 11-3 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF
INCREASING STRATUS WORKING NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK STATE IN WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LOW STRATUS PUSHING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. AREAS
WHICH REMAIN CLEAR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE.
ONCE ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE AS STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EASTWARD. CLOUDINESS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SREF/MOS BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO GET SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT FORMING A COASTAL LOW. THIS SHOULD
TAKE MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. THERE IS STILL A
QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
GET ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE COASTAL LOW PUSHING TO NEAR CAPE COD
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH AND
EASTERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH THIS FEATURE IN RESPECT TO TIMING AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. LATEST
00Z/23 GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON QPF/POPS AND ONCE AGAIN FOCUSING
MOST OF THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE. TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THIS WILL JUST LEAVE A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT FROM A
DE-AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS AND GO LOW
CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE TUG HILL REGION. HAVE KEPT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY WITH LESS NORTHERN EXTENT ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ONCE AGAIN...A COMMON OCCURRENCE AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY PRECIP WILL END BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES...BUT CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM
HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S
WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO SLOW THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP BEING
RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON
THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL BACK OFF TO LOW CHANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE MODEL CHANGES. IF THE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY BE REMOVED FOR THANKSGIVING. IT NOW
APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING BY DAYS 5-7. A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN
STRONG COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UTILIZING A
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...
APPARENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH AMERICAN RADIOSONDE
NETWORK...MODEL FORECASTS SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH CAUTION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z/23 MODELS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WELL INLAND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH LITTLE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...BRINGING
IN COLDER TEMPS AND WRAP AROUND PRECIP ALMOST 24 HOURS FASTER THAN
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/23 NAVY NOGAPS IS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF. AT THIS TIME RANGE...LITTLE DETAIL WILL BE OFFERED IN THE
GRIDS WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP TO
BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS INTO
THE AREA AND BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MORE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL INTRODUCE
MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE HWO. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...THE
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. IFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED AT KJHW FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BUT THE STRATUS HAS ERODED THERE. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS
DECK SHOULD ERODED BEFORE REACHING AND TAF SITES. LIGHT FOG...
GENERALLY 4-5 MILES WILL BURN OFF BY 13Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WILL SEE INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WORKING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LOW. MID LEVEL CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY 00Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER WITH THE CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PUSHING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
REACHING EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AIRFIELDS BY 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION
WELL OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KBGM 231141
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS STORM RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED BACK INTO THE CATSKILLS AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA PER THE LATEST SURFACE OBS PLOT/11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE LOOP. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SE QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS STRATUS LAYER
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS
CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IS RATHER LOW GIVEN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING IT ALL THAT WELL. IN ADDITION A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AS
EVIDENT BY A HAZY APPEARANCE OUTSIDE AND A THICK FROST ALREADY
FORMING...WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS THE STRATUS LAYER WILL MOVE AS FAR WEST AS A LINE FROM
ELMIRA TO BINGHAMTON TO NORWICH BY DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST OF THIS
LINE SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG.
THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH TODAY WITH THE
STRATUS IN PLACE AT DAYBREAK....ALONG WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP
THE COAST. THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY ERODE A BIT ON THE WESTERN EDGES
BY MIDDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
PA. BEST SHOT AT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUN TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES UP THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HERE TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 40S FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH MAY TRY TO MOVE IN A FEW SHOWERS OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD DUSK ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS. EVEN HERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MAIN THREAT
FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH FINALLY
RETREATS ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW THE MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FOR MOST...BUT UP TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM...RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA. A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE
IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST UP THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS VALUES WELL TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. LOOKS LIKE ALL THE FUN IS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE MID WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE SFC LOW
IS SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL EJECT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA.
ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SISTER SFC LOW THAT TRACKS INLAND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IN
THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT TRACK. HOW THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND A LITTLE LESS OF A SISTER
LOW AND THIS COULD BECOME A STRONG COASTAL STORM. THE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS FRIDAY
PROGRESSES...COLDER TEMPS MOVE IN AND THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. 1000-500 THICKNESS DROP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
TO BELOW 540DM AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND 530DM ON SATURDAY. THE ISSUE
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS
VT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A TYPICAL TRACK.
THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW STAYING ALONG THE COAST ALL THE WAY UP PAST
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THIS TRACK FOR NOW. WITH THIS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS
WEEKEND..WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY RUN TO RUN ON INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF
THE PRECIP.
AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD...THE SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -4 OR -5 C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE WRAP AROUND
PRECIP FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW DOES QUICKLY MOVE OUT
AND THE SFC FLOW DIES DOWN. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST. KAVP HAS HAD MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND KBGM HAS NOW
HAD CEILINGS MOVE IN THAT ARE ALSO MVFR. THEY HAVE BEGUN BOUNCING
BETWEEN CLR AND MVFR AND WILL LIKELY DO SO THROUGH MID MORNING. THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES HAVE BEEN CLEAR. THIS HAS ALLOWED KELM TO
BECOME FOGGED IN WITH DENSE FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. KSYR AND KRME
HAVE BEEN VFR ALL NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OTHER NON TAF AIRPORTS HAVE
ALSO REPORTED SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION...SO LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG IS A REAL POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO
LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW FAR THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL
MOVE. THE MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON IT AT ALL...AND DAYBREAK
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE IT...AT LEAST STOP ITS PROGRESSION AND
ALLOW IT TO LIFT SOME.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THIS EVENING HOWEVER ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO MVFR. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED AS MIST AND/OR FOG FORM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT
IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE
US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS
SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY
(11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT.
* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.
TOP 5
1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 231136
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
636 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN PREVAILS. THE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS DOES IS RAIN? NUMERICAL
MODEL SUITE IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOP OF LIGHT PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER LONG ISLAND FIRST, THAN
THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST (SIMILAR TO THE WAY THE STRATUS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT).
LIFT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION
SEEN IN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL NAM AND GFS PROFILES THAT RESULTS IN
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THUS, FEEL THIS IS AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TYPE OF PCPN.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS MOSTLY VFR...WITH SOME VARIATIONS TO MVFR...BY 14Z OR
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN MVFR AS LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPS AND VISIBILITIES LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG.
TOWARD 22Z CEILINGS LIKELY LOWER TO HIGH END IFR. NOT HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN THIS HAPPENING AND CEILINGS MAY WELL REMAIN MVFR.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
23/10Z 04010KT
23/11Z 04011KT
23/12Z 03011KT
23/13Z 03011KT
23/14Z 03011KT
23/15Z 03011KT
23/16Z 03012KT
23/17Z 03012KT
23/18Z 03012KT
23/19Z 03012KT
23/20Z 03012KT
23/21Z 03012KT
KJFK...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KLGA...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KTEB...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KHPN...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KSWF...CEILING HEIGHTS AND TIMING UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS
LIKELY.
KISP...CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KBDR...CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
KGON...CEILING HEIGHTS...VISIBILITIES TIMING
UNCERTAIN...AMENDMENTS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG
EARLY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ALREADY SOLIDLY AT SCA LEVELS (BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS) ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN ZONES AT 8Z...AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN
WOULD EXPECT REMAINDER OF COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO HAVE GUSTS TO
25-30 KT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE LEFT HEADLINES AS IS TO
GET STARTED.
WITH DAMMING HIGH REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH AN EXTENSION BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND A SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW WORKING ITS WAY NE FROM THE SE
COAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
THUS WITH AT LEAST 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL WATERS.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. QPF IS
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...JST
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...PFM
HYDROLOGY...JST
000
FXUS61 KALY 231128
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH COVERED THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE WASHINGTON COUNTY AND
PORTION OF HERKIMER. WITH TIME...THESE AREAS SHOULD FILL IN AS
WELL.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE RISES A LITTLE WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING
IN...AND IN SOME CASES...COUPLED WITH A BREEZE...A BIT MORE.
HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE CLOUDS ARE HERE...WE DOUBT THEY WILL RISE
MUCH AT ALL DURING THE DAY. ALREADY HAVE FACTORED THAT INTO OUR
FORECAST BUT DID ISSUE AN UPDATE TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER IN OUR
DACKS. NO OTHER CHANGES OTHER THAN TO UPDATE HOURLY GRIDS.
****************PREVIOUS NEAR TERM FORECAST***************
DESPITE A FAIRLY "BENIGN" SYSTEM...TRICKY FORECAST. FIRST PROBLEM IS
HOW FAR WEST THE INCOMING STRATUS WILL GET TODAY? THE SECOND AND
POTENTIALLY BIGGER PROBLEM...WILL THESE CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY?
THE SECOND QUESTION WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAD TUMBLED INTO THE 20S IN THE HUDSON
WEST. ONCE THE STRATUS MADE INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY....TEMPERATURES JUMPED AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES! BUT...SUSPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE AS LONG AS CLOUDS LINGER.
PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
20S...WITH LOTS OF VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN
SPOTS...HAVE FORMED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A
BIT...BUT BOTH DO INDICATE (OR AT LEAST IMPLY) THE CLOUDS COULD HANG
TOUCH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY AS AN EASTERLY FLOW MOISTENS
THE COLUMN FROM THE BOTTOM UP. IT LOOKS AS IF THE STRATUS WILL AT
THE VERY LEAST...MAKE ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO INDICATED A BAROCLINIC LEAF
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. CLOSELY EXAMINING IT ALONG WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE THE MAIN STORM OUT TO
SEA....WHILE THE UPPER AIR LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER AIR LOW AND GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LOOKS TO NOT ONLY KEEP US IN CLOUDS TODAY...BUT
EXPECT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST (WHERE POPS LOWER TO SLIGHT/NO
CHANCE).
WITH THE CLOUDS IN PLACE...WE WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT THE MAVS (AND
IN SOME CASES EVEN THE METS) ACROSS THE BOARD. GENERALLY LOOK FOR
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH...INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ...AND "HINTS" OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH...INDUCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SETUP A
FEW TIMES THIS PAST FALL...AND IN SOME CASES...WAS ENOUGH TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM EVEN WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS CASE IS THAT PWAT VALUES DON`T GET ALL THAT
HIGH...(1/2-3/4 INCHES). ALSO...AND PROBABLY MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS MIGHT REMAIN
MAINLY ICE-FREE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SIZE OF THE WATER DROPLETS
AND CONSEQUENCE ACCUMULATION OF WATER (SINCE THIS IS OF COURSE A
NON-TROPIC ENVIRONMENT). THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW SINCE H850 HPA
AND H925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WENT HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE
PROBLEM IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR THE CLOUDS TO GO AWAY? THE GFS
WOULD DICTATE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WE DO NOT BUY THIS
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER CLEARING NAM HAS CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE. AFTER
ALL...NOV IS ALBANY/S CLOUDIEST MONTH AND THUS FAR...THIS MONTH AS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN
CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. WITH A VERY
LOW SUN ANGLE...IT IS HARD TO BREAK UP CLOUDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND WITH NO GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION OR DRYING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCATTERED. FOR THAT REASON...WENT LOWER THAN EVEN THE
NORMALLY COOLER MET NOS...UNDERCUTTING THEM BY A DEGREE OR SO. SINCE
DRYING LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...TEMPERATURES OVER THE
DACKS WILL PROBABLY GET AS HIGH (IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER) THAN TEMPS
SAY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS WILL
REFORM UNDERNEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T GIVE A CLEAR
SIGNAL WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE COLDER MAV NOS AND CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY. DID HOWEVER...ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO DROP IN
THE 30-35 RANGE...EXCEPT 20S UP NORTH.
WEDNESDAY IS OF COURSE THE BIG TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA LOOK NEARLY OPTIMAL IN THAT
WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. (WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY). THE DAY COULD START
OUT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN "MIX" OUT AT ALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
50-55 IN THE VALLEYS...45-50 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR WITH DEVELOPING
MID-WEST/GREAT LAKES TROUGH TOWARD THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. POTENT
PACIFIC WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LONGITUDE 130-150W AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 40N.
MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE DATA REVEALS
TOO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NARROWING WITH 500MB AND SFC STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE CLOSING WITH VALUES LESS THAN 20MB. WITH THAT
SAID...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY YET THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EVOLVES
UPSTREAM...SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST THANKSGIVING EVENING INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE 1 INCH. WITH THESE VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS...RAINFALL
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. AT THIS
TIME...THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MORE LIQUID THAN SOLID AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WEATHER GRIDS/FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE SURE TO ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPENING ACCORDINGLY
INTO A NOR-EASTER. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THICKNESSES FALL
QUICKLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MIXED WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE REGIONS
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET PINNED DOWN
ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN EXPECTED VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AT BEST BE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY...WITH
MAINLY 30S EXPECTED. WEATHER IMPROVES SUNDAY AS THE NOR-EASTER
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE
REGION. PTSUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH A
COUPLE DEGREE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND METARS REVEAL MVFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THIS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR KALB-KGFL DUE TO
FOG AS THESE AREAS REMAINED CLEAR BEFORE THE STRATUS DECK ARRIVED.
NOW THE MVFR CIG ARE IN...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO THE VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR KALB-KGFL. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE AND EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ARRIVES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED MVFR CATEGORY WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE AM...MVFR...CHC OF LT RAIN/DZ.
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NT-FRI...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THRU FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD
OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...11/HWJIV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KALY 231119
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
618 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A FAIRLY "BENIGN" SYSTEM...TRICKY FORECAST. FIRST PROBLEM IS
HOW FAR WEST THE INCOMING STRATUS WILL GET TODAY? THE SECOND AND
POTENTIALLY BIGGER PROBLEM...WILL THESE CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY?
THE SECOND QUESTION WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAD TUMBLED INTO THE 20S IN THE HUDSON
WEST. ONCE THE STRATUS MADE INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY....TEMPERATURES JUMPED AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES! BUT...SUSPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE AS LONG AS CLOUDS LINGER.
PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
20S...WITH LOTS OF VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN
SPOTS...HAVE FORMED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A
BIT...BUT BOTH DO INDICATE (OR AT LEAST IMPLY) THE CLOUDS COULD HANG
TOUCH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY AS AN EASTERLY FLOW MOISTENS
THE COLUMN FROM THE BOTTOM UP. IT LOOKS AS IF THE STRATUS WILL AT
THE VERY LEAST...MAKE ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO INDICATED A BAROCLINIC LEAF
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. CLOSELY EXAMINING IT ALONG WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE THE MAIN STORM OUT TO
SEA....WHILE THE UPPER AIR LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER AIR LOW AND GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LOOKS TO NOT ONLY KEEP US IN CLOUDS TODAY...BUT
EXPECT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST (WHERE POPS LOWER TO SLIGHT/NO
CHANCE).
WITH THE CLOUDS IN PLACE...WE WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT THE MAVS (AND
IN SOME CASES EVEN THE METS) ACROSS THE BOARD. GENERALLY LOOK FOR
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH...INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ...AND "HINTS" OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH...INDUCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SETUP A
FEW TIMES THIS PAST FALL...AND IN SOME CASES...WAS ENOUGH TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM EVEN WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS CASE IS THAT PWAT VALUES DON`T GET ALL THAT
HIGH...(1/2-3/4 INCHES). ALSO...AND PROBABLY MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS MIGHT REMAIN
MAINLY ICE-FREE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SIZE OF THE WATER DROPLETS
AND CONSEQUENCE ACCUMULATION OF WATER (SINCE THIS IS OF COURSE A
NON-TROPIC ENVIRONMENT). THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW SINCE H850 HPA
AND H925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WENT HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE
PROBLEM IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR THE CLOUDS TO GO AWAY? THE GFS
WOULD DICTATE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WE DO NOT BUY THIS
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER CLEARING NAM HAS CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE. AFTER
ALL...NOV IS ALBANY/S CLOUDIEST MONTH AND THUS FAR...THIS MONTH AS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN
CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. WITH A VERY
LOW SUN ANGLE...IT IS HARD TO BREAK UP CLOUDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND WITH NO GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION OR DRYING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCATTERED. FOR THAT REASON...WENT LOWER THAN EVEN THE
NORMALLY COOLER MET NOS...UNDERCUTTING THEM BY A DEGREE OR SO. SINCE
DRYING LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...TEMPERATURES OVER THE
DACKS WILL PROBABLY GET AS HIGH (IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER) THAN TEMPS
SAY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS WILL
REFORM UNDERNEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T GIVE A CLEAR
SIGNAL WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE COLDER MAV NOS AND CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY. DID HOWEVER...ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO DROP IN
THE 30-35 RANGE...EXCEPT 20S UP NORTH.
WEDNESDAY IS OF COURSE THE BIG TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA LOOK NEARLY OPTIMAL IN THAT
WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. (WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY). THE DAY COULD START
OUT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN "MIX" OUT AT ALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
50-55 IN THE VALLEYS...45-50 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR WITH DEVELOPING
MID-WEST/GREAT LAKES TROUGH TOWARD THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. POTENT
PACIFIC WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LONGITUDE 130-150W AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 40N.
MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE DATA REVEALS
TOO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NARROWING WITH 500MB AND SFC STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE CLOSING WITH VALUES LESS THAN 20MB. WITH THAT
SAID...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY YET THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EVOLVES
UPSTREAM...SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST THANKSGIVING EVENING INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE 1 INCH. WITH THESE VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS...RAINFALL
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. AT THIS
TIME...THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MORE LIQUID THAN SOLID AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WEATHER GRIDS/FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE SURE TO ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPENING ACCORDINGLY
INTO A NOR-EASTER. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THICKNESSES FALL
QUICKLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MIXED WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE REGIONS
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET PINNED DOWN
ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN EXPECTED VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AT BEST BE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY...WITH
MAINLY 30S EXPECTED. WEATHER IMPROVES SUNDAY AS THE NOR-EASTER
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE
REGION. PTSUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH A
COUPLE DEGREE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENHANCED IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND METARS REVEAL MVFR TO VLIFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THIS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR KALB-KGFL DUE TO
FOG AS THESE AREAS REMAINED CLEAR BEFORE THE STRATUS DECK ARRIVED.
NOW THE MVFR CIG ARE IN...A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO THE VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR KALB-KGFL. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE AND EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
UPSTREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ARRIVES LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
CONTINUED MVFR CATEGORY WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL INTO IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE AM...MVFR...CHC OF LT RAIN/DZ.
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED NT-FRI...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THRU FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD
OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...11/HWJIV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KBGM 230940
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
440 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS STORM RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED BACK INTO THE CATSKILLS AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA PER THE LATEST SURFACE OBS PLOT/11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE LOOP. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SE QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS STRATUS LAYER
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS
CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IS RATHER LOW GIVEN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING IT ALL THAT WELL. IN ADDITION A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AS
EVIDENT BY A HAZY APPEARANCE OUTSIDE AND A THICK FROST ALREADY
FORMING...WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS THE STRATUS LAYER WILL MOVE AS FAR WEST AS A LINE FROM
ELMIRA TO BINGHAMTON TO NORWICH BY DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST OF THIS
LINE SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG.
THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH TODAY WITH THE
STRATUS IN PLACE AT DAYBREAK....ALONG WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP
THE COAST. THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY ERODE A BIT ON THE WESTERN EDGES
BY MIDDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
PA. BEST SHOT AT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUN TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES UP THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HERE TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 40S FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH MAY TRY TO MOVE IN A FEW SHOWERS OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD DUSK ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS. EVEN HERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MAIN THREAT
FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH FINALLY
RETREATS ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW THE MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FOR MOST...BUT UP TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM...RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA. A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE
IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST UP THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS VALUES WELL TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. LOOKS LIKE ALL THE FUN IS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE MID WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE SFC LOW
IS SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL EJECT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA.
ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SISTER SFC LOW THAT TRACKS INLAND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IN
THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT TRACK. HOW THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND A LITTLE LESS OF A SISTER
LOW AND THIS COULD BECOME A STRONG COASTAL STORM. THE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS FRIDAY
PROGRESSES...COLDER TEMPS MOVE IN AND THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. 1000-500 THICKNESS DROP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
TO BELOW 540DM AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND 530DM ON SATURDAY. THE ISSUE
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS
VT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A TYPICAL TRACK.
THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW STAYING ALONG THE COAST ALL THE WAY UP PAST
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THIS TRACK FOR NOW. WITH THIS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS
WEEKEND..WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY RUN TO RUN ON INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF
THE PRECIP.
AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD...THE SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -4 OR -5 C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE WRAP AROUND
PRECIP FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW DOES QUICKLY MOVE OUT
AND THE SFC FLOW DIES DOWN. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST. KAVP HAS HAD MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND KBGM HAS NOW
HAD CEILINGS MOVE IN THAT ARE ALSO MVFR. THE TAF SITE NORTH HAVE
BEEN CLEAR. THIS HAS ALLOWED KELM TO BECOME FOGGED IN WITH DENSE
FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOME VERY LIGHT FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT KITH...IT HAS
MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER. KSYR AND KRME HAVE ALSO BEEN
VFR ALL NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OTHER NON TAF AIRPORTS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION...SO LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO LOW CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW FAR THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL MOVE. THE
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON IT AT ALL...AND DAYBREAK SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE IT...AT LEAST STOP ITS PROGRESSION AND ALLOW IT TO
LIFT SOME.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THIS EVENING HOWEVER ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO MVFR. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED AS MIST AND/OR FOG FORM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE THIS WEEK/INTO THE WEEKEND IT MAY
COME JUST IN TIME TO KEEP ONE OF OUR CLIMATE LOCATIONS FROM
BREAKING AN ALL TIME RECORD. SYRACUSE, NY HAS NOT SEEN AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW SINCE FEBRUARY 24TH OF LAST WINTER. THROUGH TODAY (11/23) THAT
IS A TOTAL OF 271 DAYS WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR GREATER OF
SNOWFALL. THIS IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR 3RD PLACE ALL TIME. GIVEN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW. IF THE FORECAST VERIFIES THAT WOULD MOVE
US INTO A TIE FOR 2ND. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE RECORD OF 276 DAYS
SET BACK IN 1946...WE WOULD NEED TO GET THROUGH THIS SUNDAY
(11/29) WITHOUT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW AT THE AIRPORT.
* THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX DATABASE USING DATA
FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT. THESE RECORDS GO
BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT
SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FOR SYRACUSE.
TOP 5
1) 1946 276 DAYS (FEB 27TH - DEC 1ST)
2) 1998 274 DAYS (MAR 22ND - DEC 22ND)
3) 2009 271 DAYS (THROUGH 11/23)
4) 1978 265 DAYS (MAR 6 - NOV 27)
5) 1932/1941 263 DAYS (MAR 21ST - DEC 10TH)
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
CLIMATE...HEDEN
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230930
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER N
MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS SET UP EASTERLY FLOW FOR GD PORTION
OF NEW ENG REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED LL CLD DECK TO PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY LATEST IR SAT PIC. EXPECTING THIS CLD
COVER TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF E VT DURING THE DAY AND EVEN FILTER
DOWN INTO THE CVLY AND PORTIONS OF N NY. FAIRLY NICE DAY OVERALL
ON TAP...W/ EXCEPTION BEING BLW NORMAL TEMPS IN AREAS SEEING LOW
CLD SHIELD...ESPECIALLY IN E VT. GOING INTO THE EVENING
HRS...RIDGE TO OUR N AND E SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING CWA
TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME. CLDS ON THE INCR FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS GOING INTO OVERNGT HRS AS SFC LOW WORKS N
ALONG THE COAST. MDLS A BIT DISCREPANT AS TO THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
PRECIP/CLDS INTO THE AREA BFR MVG E OUT TO SEA. W/ EFFECTS OF
BLOCKING RIDGE STILL EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF KEEPING BULK PRECIP OVER SC VT...AND A SL CHANCE
FOR CENTRAL AREAS FOR PRECIP. SOME CD AIR INITIALLY AS A RESULT OF
CLR SKIES IN SOME AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP SOME BFR
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...SO WILL MENTION A FEW HRS WHERE --SW TO MIX W/
RAIN SHOWERS(WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC LOW MVS OFFSHORE SLOWLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ENE FLOW OVER THE REGION AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK DOWN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH EASTERLY FETCH STILL EXPECT
CLD COVER TO REMAIN AS LOW EXITS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -RW
THRU MIDDAY AND BECM CLR BY THE EVNEING HRS. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LKS REGION. MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER ON APPROACH OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO RIDGE PLACEMENT. HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA DRY
WITH EXCEPTION BEING SLV AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF DACKS...ALTHOUGH
GD PORTION OF CWA WILL SEE INCR IN MID/HIGH CLDS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURS
MORNING...WITH MAJORITY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. SO I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY....THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF LOW DEVELOPING OFF CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE
SLOWS THINGS DOWN...GIVING THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA BEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON THANKSGIVING.
ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND WHICH KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THURSDAY...AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
NEAR LONG ISLAND OR THE BENCH MARK...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING BACK
INTO ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...ESPECIALLY POINTS WEST AND
SOUTH...SPREADING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR...AND CONSEQUENTLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...IS VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL HUG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH A
POSITION NEAR DOWNEAST MAINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT WE REMAIN UNDER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND UNDER N TO NW FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY....ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
POINTS JUST WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. AS THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...AN INVERSION ONCE AGAIN KEEPS MOISTURE
TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TONIGHT. KBTV/KPBG/KMSS WILL
JUST SEE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR THROUGH
13Z. KMPV AND KRUT MEANWHILE WILL BECOME PREVAILING MVFR AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FT AND VISIBILITY
OF 3SM CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE SITES. KSLK IS VLIFR IN FG...AND
WILL REMAIN SUCH UNTIL AFTER 12Z...WHEN VIS AND CIGS WILL SLOWLY
RISE TO MVFR...THEN VFR AFTER 16Z. MOST SITES WILL HAVE FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AT KRUT AND KMPV
AFTER 18Z MONDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS TO FORM
AT KRUT...KMPV AFTER 02Z TUE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CALM TO
LIGHT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE DRAINAGE WINDS
AT KRUT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS MONDAY...AND
DIMINISH AGAIN TO LIGHT AND VAR AFTER 01Z TUE.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR TUE MORNING AT KSLK AND KMPV.
OTHERWISE VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR
IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230921
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER N
MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS SET UP EASTERLY FLOW FOR GD PORTION
OF NEW ENG REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED LL CLD DECK TO PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY LATEST IR SAT PIC. EXPECTING THIS CLD
COVER TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF E VT DURING THE DAY AND EVEN FILTER
DOWN INTO THE CVLY AND PORTIONS OF N NY. FAIRLY NICE DAY OVERALL
ON TAP...W/ EXCEPTION BEING BLW NORMAL TEMPS IN AREAS SEEING LOW
CLD SHIELD...ESPECIALLY IN E VT. GOING INTO THE EVENING
HRS...RIDGE TO OUR N AND E SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING CWA
TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME. CLDS ON THE INCR FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS GOING INTO OVERNGT HRS AS SFC LOW WORKS N
ALONG THE COAST. MDLS A BIT DISCREPANT AS TO THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
PRECIP/CLDS INTO THE AREA BFR MVG E OUT TO SEA. W/ EFFECTS OF
BLOCKING RIDGE STILL EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF KEEPING BULK PRECIP OVER SC VT...AND A SL CHANCE
FOR CENTRAL AREAS FOR PRECIP. SOME CD AIR INITIALLY AS A RESULT OF
CLR SKIES IN SOME AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP SOME BFR
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...SO WILL MENTION A FEW HRS WHERE --SW TO MIX W/
RAIN SHOWERS(WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC LOW MVS OFFSHORE SLOWLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ENE FLOW OVER THE REGION AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK DOWN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH EASTERLY FETCH STILL EXPECT
CLD COVER TO REMAIN AS LOW EXITS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -RW
THRU MIDDAY AND BECM CLR BY THE EVNEING HRS. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LKS REGION. MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER ON APPROACH OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO RIDGE PLACEMENT. HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA DRY
WITH EXCEPTION BEING SLV AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF DACKS...ALTHOUGH
GD PORTION OF CWA WILL SEE INCR IN MID/HIGH CLDS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 352 AM EST MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURS
MORNING...WITH MAJORITY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. SO I`VE MAINTAINED ONLY A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY....THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...AND NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF LOW DEVELOPING OFF CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE
SLOWS THINGS DOWN...GIVING THE WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
AREA BEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON THANKSGIVING.
ONE THING THAT IS CONSISTENT IS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND WHICH KEEPS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
THURSDAY...AND THUS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN FOR
THE HOLIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE
NEAR LONG ISLAND OR THE BENCH MARK...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING BACK
INTO ONTARIO. AT THIS TIME WE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION...ESPECIALLY POINTS WEST AND
SOUTH...SPREADING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD
AIR...AND CONSEQUENTLY CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...IS VERY MUCH
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW. THE PREFERRED ECMWF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL HUG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WITH A
POSITION NEAR DOWNEAST MAINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY...WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND
MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY...BUT WE REMAIN UNDER
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND UNDER N TO NW FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
THESE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY....ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
POINTS JUST WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS. AS THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
BEEN LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE FINALLY BEGUN
TO ERODE...AND EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BUFKIT INDICATES THE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST 36 HOURS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT/KMSS WILL JUST SEE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. KMPV AND KSLK MEANWHILE WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AROUND 1500
FT AND VISIBILITY OF 3SM CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE SITES. MOST SITES
WILL HAVE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AT KRUT
AND KMPV AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT....THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-8 KNOTS MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 230906
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
406 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS STORM RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED BACK INTO THE CATSKILLS AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA PER THE LATEST SURFACE OBS PLOT/11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE LOOP. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SE QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS STRATUS LAYER
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS
CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IS RATHER LOW GIVEN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING IT ALL THAT WELL. IN ADDITION A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AS
EVIDENT BY A HAZY APPEARANCE OUTSIDE AND A THICK FROST ALREADY
FORMING...WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS THE STRATUS LAYER WILL MOVE AS FAR WEST AS A LINE FROM
ELMIRA TO BINGHAMTON TO NORWICH BY DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST OF THIS
LINE SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG.
THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH TODAY WITH THE
STRATUS IN PLACE AT DAYBREAK....ALONG WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP
THE COAST. THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY ERODE A BIT ON THE WESTERN EDGES
BY MIDDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
PA. BEST SHOT AT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUN TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES UP THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HERE TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 40S FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH MAY TRY TO MOVE IN A FEW SHOWERS OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD DUSK ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS. EVEN HERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MAIN THREAT
FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH FINALLY
RETREATS ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW THE MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FOR MOST...BUT UP TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM...RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA. A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE
IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST UP THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS VALUES WELL TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. LOOKS LIKE ALL THE FUN IS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE MID WEST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE SFC LOW
IS SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SFC LOW WILL EJECT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE. AS IT DOES...IT WILL SPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA.
ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SISTER SFC LOW THAT TRACKS INLAND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IN
THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT TRACK. HOW THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY INTERESTING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND A LITTLE LESS OF A SISTER
LOW AND THIS COULD BECOME A STRONG COASTAL STORM. THE TEMPS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS FRIDAY
PROGRESSES...COLDER TEMPS MOVE IN AND THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. 1000-500 THICKNESS DROP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
TO BELOW 540DM AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND 530DM ON SATURDAY. THE ISSUE
WILL BE THE EXACT TRACK. THE GFS HAS THE SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS
VT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A TYPICAL TRACK.
THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW STAYING ALONG THE COAST ALL THE WAY UP PAST
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS WOULD SEEM MORE LIKELY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS
THIS TRACK FOR NOW. WITH THIS...WINDS WILL BE BRISK THIS
WEEKEND..WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY RUN TO RUN ON INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF
THE PRECIP.
AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD...THE SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -4 OR -5 C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE WRAP AROUND
PRECIP FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW DOES QUICKLY MOVE OUT
AND THE SFC FLOW DIES DOWN. HOWEVER...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST. KAVP HAS HAD MVFR CEILINGS ALL NIGHT AND KBGM HAS NOW
HAD CEILINGS MOVE IN THAT ARE ALSO MVFR. THE TAF SITE NORTH HAVE
BEEN CLEAR. THIS HAS ALLOWED KELM TO BECOME FOGGED IN WITH DENSE
FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. SOME VERY LIGHT FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT KITH...IT HAS
MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER. KSYR AND KRME HAVE ALSO BEEN
VFR ALL NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL OTHER NON TAF AIRPORTS HAVE ALSO REPORTED
SOME DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION...SO LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS A
REAL POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ALSO LOW CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO HOW FAR THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL MOVE. THE
MODELS ARE NOT PICKING UP ON IT AT ALL...AND DAYBREAK SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE IT...AT LEAST STOP ITS PROGRESSION AND ALLOW IT TO
LIFT SOME.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP THIS EVENING HOWEVER ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO MVFR. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE
AFFECTED AS MIST AND/OR FOG FORM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KALY 230900
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE A FAIRLY "BENIGN" SYSTEM...TRICKY FORECAST. FIRST PROBLEM IS
HOW FAR WEST THE INCOMING STRATUS WILL GET TODAY? THE SECOND AND
POTENTIALLY BIGGER PROBLEM...WILL THESE CLOUDS LINGER ALL DAY?
THE SECOND QUESTION WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET TODAY. TEMPERATURES HAD TUMBLED INTO THE 20S IN THE HUDSON
WEST. ONCE THE STRATUS MADE INTO THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY....TEMPERATURES JUMPED AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES! BUT...SUSPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH MORE AS LONG AS CLOUDS LINGER.
PRIOR TO THE CLOUDS MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE
20S...WITH LOTS OF VERY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AREAS OF FOG...DENSE IN
SPOTS...HAVE FORMED.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER A
BIT...BUT BOTH DO INDICATE (OR AT LEAST IMPLY) THE CLOUDS COULD HANG
TOUCH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY AS AN EASTERLY FLOW MOISTENS
THE COLUMN FROM THE BOTTOM UP. IT LOOKS AS IF THE STRATUS WILL AT
THE VERY LEAST...MAKE ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA.
MEANWHILE...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO INDICATED A BAROCLINIC LEAF
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. CLOSELY EXAMINING IT ALONG WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS A TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE THE MAIN STORM OUT TO
SEA....WHILE THE UPPER AIR LOW TRACKS ALONG THE COAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER AIR LOW AND GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LOOKS TO NOT ONLY KEEP US IN CLOUDS TODAY...BUT
EXPECT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION AND POINTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST (WHERE POPS LOWER TO SLIGHT/NO
CHANCE).
WITH THE CLOUDS IN PLACE...WE WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT THE MAVS (AND
IN SOME CASES EVEN THE METS) ACROSS THE BOARD. GENERALLY LOOK FOR
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK WELL TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTH...INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ...AND "HINTS" OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH...INDUCING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF SOME RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SETUP A
FEW TIMES THIS PAST FALL...AND IN SOME CASES...WAS ENOUGH TO BRING A
SIGNIFICANT RAINSTORM EVEN WHEN THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST.
THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS CASE IS THAT PWAT VALUES DON`T GET ALL THAT
HIGH...(1/2-3/4 INCHES). ALSO...AND PROBABLY MORE
IMPORTANTLY...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS MIGHT REMAIN
MAINLY ICE-FREE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SIZE OF THE WATER DROPLETS
AND CONSEQUENCE ACCUMULATION OF WATER (SINCE THIS IS OF COURSE A
NON-TROPIC ENVIRONMENT). THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALSO...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF SNOW SINCE H850 HPA
AND H925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WENT HIGHER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE
PROBLEM IS HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE FOR THE CLOUDS TO GO AWAY? THE GFS
WOULD DICTATE SUNSHINE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WE DO NOT BUY THIS
SOLUTION. THE SLOWER CLEARING NAM HAS CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE. AFTER
ALL...NOV IS ALBANY/S CLOUDIEST MONTH AND THUS FAR...THIS MONTH AS
NOT BEEN ALL THAT CLOUDY. HOWEVER...THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SEEN
CLOUDS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. WITH A VERY
LOW SUN ANGLE...IT IS HARD TO BREAK UP CLOUDS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND WITH NO GOOD DOWNWARD MOTION OR DRYING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE CLOUDS TO
BECOME SCATTERED. FOR THAT REASON...WENT LOWER THAN EVEN THE
NORMALLY COOLER MET NOS...UNDERCUTTING THEM BY A DEGREE OR SO. SINCE
DRYING LOOKS TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR NW ZONES...TEMPERATURES OVER THE
DACKS WILL PROBABLY GET AS HIGH (IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER) THAN TEMPS
SAY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. OVERALL
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE.
THEN TUESDAY NIGHT...THE DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS WILL
REFORM UNDERNEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON`T GIVE A CLEAR
SIGNAL WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL HAPPEN. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE COLDER MAV NOS AND CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY. DID HOWEVER...ADD
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOWS TO DROP IN
THE 30-35 RANGE...EXCEPT 20S UP NORTH.
WEDNESDAY IS OF COURSE THE BIG TRAVEL DAY BEFORE THANKSGIVING. RIGHT
NOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA LOOK NEARLY OPTIMAL IN THAT
WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. (WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE AFTERNOON TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY). THE DAY COULD START
OUT AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. IF WE CAN "MIX" OUT AT ALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
50-55 IN THE VALLEYS...45-50 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE VALUES
ARE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR WITH DEVELOPING
MID-WEST/GREAT LAKES TROUGH TOWARD THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. POTENT
PACIFIC WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WAS SITUATED BETWEEN LONGITUDE 130-150W AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 40N.
MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL WHICH RESULTS IN
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE DATA REVEALS
TOO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NARROWING WITH 500MB AND SFC STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ARE CLOSING WITH VALUES LESS THAN 20MB. WITH THAT
SAID...THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY YET THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE INCREASING RATHER QUICKLY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EVOLVES
UPSTREAM...SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST THANKSGIVING EVENING INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITH PWATS FORECAST TO CLIMB
ABOVE 1 INCH. WITH THESE VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS...RAINFALL
COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AS WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS. AT THIS
TIME...THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MORE LIQUID THAN SOLID AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND WEATHER GRIDS/FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION.
ON FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BE SURE TO ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPENING ACCORDINGLY
INTO A NOR-EASTER. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AS THICKNESSES FALL
QUICKLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MIXED WITH
AND CHANCE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A DEFORMATION AXIS WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE REGIONS
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT MUCH TOO EARLY TO GET PINNED DOWN
ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AN EXPECTED VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AT BEST BE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEY...WITH
MAINLY 30S EXPECTED. WEATHER IMPROVES SUNDAY AS THE NOR-EASTER
LIFTS FURTHER AWAY AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE
REGION. PTSUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH A
COUPLE DEGREE REBOUND EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A STATUS DECK
EVOLVING AND MIGRATING FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE WELL
ENTRENCHED BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...PRECEDING THIS MVFR
DECK...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE DOWN TO 1 WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
FOG/BR WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE TAFS AS WELL.
THROUGH MONDAY...THIS STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...PERHAPS
LIFTING TOWARD THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE WAVE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES APPROACHES
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. IN
FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO DEVELOP AND WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE TAF FORECAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON OVRNT-TUE AM...MVFR...CHC OF LT RAIN/DZ.
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU-FRI...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THRU FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD
OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...11/HWJIV
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230847
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BRING A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE TRI-STATE
AREA. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY AND
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER. COLDER AND BREEZY
WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
OCEAN PREVAILS. THE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS DOES IS RAIN? NUMERICAL
MODEL SUITE IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOP OF LIGHT PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER LONG ISLAND FIRST, THAN
THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP WEST (SIMILAR TO THE WAY THE STRATUS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT).
LIFT IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION
SEEN IN THE VEERING LOW LEVEL NAM AND GFS PROFILES THAT RESULTS IN
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THUS, FEEL THIS IS AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TYPE OF PCPN.
TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY DO TO THE LACK ON HEATING AND THE
MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS OFF THE ATLANTIC.
BOTTOM LINE - A RAW NOVEMBER DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS IS
BEING DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES THOUGH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE ON THE EAST COAST AND CLEARS OUT THE
OLD CUT OFFS THAT HAVE BEEN SITTING AROUND (CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CT AND EASTERN KY).
AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK UPPER FORCING, DO NOT BELIEVE THE
OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1006 HPA ON TUESDAY EAST OF CAPE
COD. PREFER THE WEAKER (OLD) ECMWF RUN. THE LOCAL IMPORTANCE OF THIS
CHOICE IS TUESDAY`S CLOUDS AND RESULTING TEMPS. THE WEAKER SOLUTION
KEEPS WINDS MORE EASTERLY ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY
WITH COOL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT PCPN - AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
THE ABOVE ALSO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHICH, WITH
UNCERTAINTY FOR TUESDAY BEING HIGH IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS, IS BEST TO STAY WITH THAT FORECAST AND NOT FLIP/FLOP.
TEMPS RANGE IS SMALL THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WERE RAISED
SLIGHTLY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED DESCRIBES THE PERIOD. CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CHICAGO
THURSDAY AM TO NEAR LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT DEEPENS.
LATEST GFS (00Z)IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE OLD (12Z) ECMWF WITH THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST. NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM SHOW
SURPRISINGLY LITTLE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, THE LONG TERM
APPEARS TO HAVE MORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE SHORT TERM.
AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY
REDEVELOPS ON THE TRIPLE POINT ON FRIDAY AM OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THEN DEEPS RAPIDLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
ON-SHORE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MEAN CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW EARLY FRIDAY (WITH A FEW
HUNDRED JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS) SUPPORTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RARE NOVEMBER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ALONG WITH
HEAVIER RAIN AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MEANS A RATHER UNPLEASANT
TIME FOR EARLY MORNING SHOPPERS.
ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER LOW TRACKS OVER THE REGION, THE DEEPER
(COLDER) GFS PROFILES KEEP ANY MIXED PCPN INLAND. WINDY TOO ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW. BASED ON GFS PROFILES...THERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR...BUT HAVE NOT LOWERED BELOW 2000 FT AS
EXPECTED. AMENDED TERMINALS TO DELAY LOWERING OF CEILINGS UNTIL MID
MORNING. TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO QUICK...LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE START OF THE LIGHT RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ONCE CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. STILL NOT CONFIDENT IN LIFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY 12Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG. RAIN
TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY WITH VISIBILITIES BECOMING MVFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY...GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ALREADY SOLIDLY AT SCA LEVELS (BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS) ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN ZONES AT 8Z...AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN
WOULD EXPECT REMAINDER OF COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TO HAVE GUSTS TO
25-30 KT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO HAVE LEFT HEADLINES AS IS TO
GET STARTED.
WITH DAMMING HIGH REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WITH AN EXTENSION BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND A SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW WORKING ITS WAY NE FROM THE SE
COAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
THUS WITH AT LEAST 80 PERCENT CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THEN...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR ALL WATERS.
THE PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-11 FT BY TONIGHT
(HIGHEST SE PORTION OF ANZ-350 LOWEST WESTERN PORTION OF ANZ-355).
COULD SEE SOME 5-6 FT WAVES NEAR THE MOTH OF LONG ISLAND SOUND LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. AS LOW PULLS TO THE ENE TUESDAY
WINDS BACK TO THE N AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.
N WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO RELAX...AND EXPECT THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS TO FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL STAY
AT/ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH ALL THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD PROVIDE A
24 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
THIS LULL COMES TO AN END LATE THURSDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COASTAL STORM...THIS ONE LIKELY MUCH STRONGER
THAN THE ONE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK. FOR NOW
CAPPING THINGS AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOW/S TRACK/STRENGTH BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AT LEAST GALE
FORCE GUSTS IMPACTED ALL WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
REQUIRE 2.5-3 FT DEPARTURES TO ACHIEVE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...DUE TO BEING IN BETWEEN THE NEW AND FULL
MOON. LATEST STORM SURGE GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS DEPARTURES AROUND 1
FT. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST...THIS SEEMS A BIT UNDER
DONE...HOWEVER NOT TO THE EXTENT NEED TO CREATE CONCERNS FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT COASTAL GAGES TO HAVE
READINGS EVEN APPROACH THE BENCH MARK FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL
LOW FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
POTENTIALLY A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING IS A
STRONGER COASTAL LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEK. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
LIGHT PCPN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. QPF IS
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH OVER AND INCH ON AVERAGE.
AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JST
NEAR TERM...JST
SHORT TERM...JST
LONG TERM...JST
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...JST
000
FXUS61 KBUF 230845
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RETREAT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AND POSSIBLY A CHANGE TOWARDS MORE
WINTRY WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. 11-3 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF
INCREASING STRATUS WORKING NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK STATE IN WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LOW STRATUS PUSHING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. AREAS
WHICH REMAIN CLEAR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE.
ONCE ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE AS STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EASTWARD. CLOUDINESS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SREF/MOS BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO GET SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT FORMING A COASTAL LOW. THIS SHOULD
TAKE MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. THERE IS STILL A
QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
GET ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE COASTAL LOW PUSHING TO NEAR CAPE COD
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH AND
EASTERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME
WITH THIS FEATURE IN RESPECT TO TIMING AND PRECIP POTENTIAL. LATEST
00Z/23 GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON QPF/POPS AND ONCE AGAIN FOCUSING
MOST OF THE STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE. TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THIS WILL JUST LEAVE A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT FROM A
DE-AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH. WILL BACK OFF ON POPS AND GO LOW
CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE TUG HILL REGION. HAVE KEPT THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY DRY WITH LESS NORTHERN EXTENT ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ONCE AGAIN...A COMMON OCCURRENCE AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY PRECIP WILL END BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES...BUT CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWING THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE...AND ALSO SHIFTING THE TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON POPS AS A RESULT. IN FACT...THE 00Z NAM
HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
925MB TEMPS RISE TO +6C...AND SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW PLACES IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY MAY ECLIPSE 60. LOW TO MID 50S
WILL DO IT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF COMPRESSIONAL DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A COMPLEX MID LEVEL EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH. AGAIN THE NEXT RESULT WAS TO SLOW THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SHOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF ORGANIZED PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP BEING
RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER LAKES ON
THANKSGIVING. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
FEATURES...EXPECT THE HOLIDAY TO BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. WAS TEMPTED TO
REMOVE POPS ALTOGETHER...BUT FOR NOW WILL BACK OFF TO LOW CHANCE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FUTURE MODEL CHANGES. IF THE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY BE REMOVED FOR THANKSGIVING. IT NOW
APPEARS COLDER AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY...SO THE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY.
THINGS GET MUCH MORE INTERESTING BY DAYS 5-7. A POTENT MID LEVEL
VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH...WITH THE TWO FEATURES COMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
ALONG THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING
MOVING ATOP A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE COAST MAY RESULT IN
STRONG COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UTILIZING A
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...
APPARENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA.
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTH AMERICAN RADIOSONDE
NETWORK...MODEL FORECASTS SHOULD BE VIEWED WITH CAUTION.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z/23 MODELS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WELL INLAND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF IS
WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST...WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A
VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH LITTLE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...BRINGING
IN COLDER TEMPS AND WRAP AROUND PRECIP ALMOST 24 HOURS FASTER THAN
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/23 NAVY NOGAPS IS SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF. AT THIS TIME RANGE...LITTLE DETAIL WILL BE OFFERED IN THE
GRIDS WITH JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIP TO
BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE COLDER AIR ALOFT WRAPS INTO
THE AREA AND BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MORE SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL INTRODUCE
MENTION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE HWO. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...THE
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WITH ONLY A
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SFC T-TD SPREADS EXPECTED TO GET
RELATIVELY NARROW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUNRISE AND THE RETURN OF DIURNAL HEATING ON MONDAY...LEAVING
BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DURING MONDAY EVENING...THE CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AT THE SAME
TIME...THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS...THOUGH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK ON BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO. THE EASTERLIES WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING AND CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. THE FORECAST
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP THE LARGEST WAVE ACTION
WELL OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE...SO NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KBUF 230824
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
324 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM A LOW
MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN TO AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE MOST PART SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. 11-3 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING AREA OF
INCREASING STRATUS WORKING NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW
YORK STATE IN WEAK LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LOW STRATUS PUSHING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE. AREAS
WHICH REMAIN CLEAR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE.
ONCE ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...MOST OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN FINE SHAPE AS STRONG 1035+ MB HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EASTWARD. CLOUDINESS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SREF/MOS BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS SUGGESTING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
THE LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS TO GET SHEARED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT FORMING A COASTAL LOW. THIS SHOULD
TAKE MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. THERE IS STILL A
QUESTION ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
GET ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE COASTAL LOW PUSHING TO NEAR CAPE COD
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY AND SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH AND
EASTERN AREAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST
SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN EASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
REGION WHILE A MID LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES NE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST TO BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. AT THIS TIME BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF BUF, MNLY ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT SHLD END BY LATER TUESDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN
PTNS OF THE CWA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHLD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEL
PROFILES SHOW PLENY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE HANGING OVER THE REGION
UNDER THE WEAK HIGH SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLEARING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS/ECMWF IN BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. HAVE
GONE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING IN THREAT OF SHWRS TO AREAS
FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST IN THE MRNG AND THEN REACHING AREAS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO DURG THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHLD CONTINUE WITH ABV NORMAL HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED. GENLY
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TUE AND LOW TO MID 50S WED. LOWS MON NGT SHLD
RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICIES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THE LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LKS WED
NGT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY BUT 850 TEMPS SHLD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP DURG THIS PERIOD TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT IN THE
LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DEVELOP A MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FARTHER WEST,
INLAND OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS MAY STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURG FRIDAY WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY, WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW EXPECT
CHC RAIN/SNOW SHWRS WITH HIGHS GENLY UPPER 30S TO ARND 40.
WILL CONTINUE CHC SNOW SHWRS SAT NGT SE OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO AS
COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OUTSIDE OF THESE
AREAS. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WITH ONLY A
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SFC T-TD SPREADS EXPECTED TO GET
RELATIVELY NARROW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUNRISE AND THE RETURN OF DIURNAL HEATING ON MONDAY...LEAVING
BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DURING MONDAY EVENING...THE CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AT THE SAME
TIME...THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS...THOUGH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PORTION
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...JJP
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230810
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
310 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. A LOW MOVING UP THE COAST WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER N
MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS SET UP EASTERLY FLOW FOR GD PORTION
OF NEW ENG REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED LL CLD DECK TO PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE CWA AS EVIDENT BY LATEST IR SAT PIC. EXPECTING THIS CLD
COVER TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF E VT DURING THE DAY AND EVEN FILTER
DOWN INTO THE CVLY AND PORTIONS OF N NY. FAIRLY NICE DAY OVERALL
ON TAP...W/ EXCEPTION BEING BLW NORMAL TEMPS IN AREAS SEEING LOW
CLD SHIELD...ESPECIALLY IN E VT. GOING INTO THE EVENING
HRS...RIDGE TO OUR N AND E SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE...ALLOWING CWA
TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME. CLDS ON THE INCR FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS GOING INTO OVERNGT HRS AS SFC LOW WORKS N
ALONG THE COAST. MDLS A BIT DISCREPANT AS TO THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF
PRECIP/CLDS INTO THE AREA BFR MVG E OUT TO SEA. W/ EFFECTS OF
BLOCKING RIDGE STILL EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...WILL
CONTINUE TREND OF KEEPING BULK PRECIP OVER SC VT...AND A SL CHANCE
FOR CENTRAL AREAS FOR PRECIP. SOME CD AIR INITIALLY AS A RESULT OF
CLR SKIES IN SOME AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP SOME BFR
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...SO WILL MENTION A FEW HRS WHERE --SW TO MIX W/
RAIN SHOWERS(WHICH WILL BE PREDOMINATE WX TYPE).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM EST MONDAY...SFC LOW MVS OFFSHORE SLOWLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ENE FLOW OVER THE REGION AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK DOWN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH EASTERLY FETCH STILL EXPECT
CLD COVER TO REMAIN AS LOW EXITS...SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -RW
THRU MIDDAY AND BECM CLR BY THE EVNEING HRS. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LKS REGION. MDLS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER ON APPROACH OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM DUE TO RIDGE PLACEMENT. HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA DRY
WITH EXPECTION BEING SLV AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF DACKS...ALTHOUGH
GD PORTION OF CWA WILL SEE INCR IN MID/HIGH CLDS DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. GRIDDED MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE GONE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE ABOVE GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS INDICATE GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
BEEN LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE FINALLY BEGUN
TO ERODE...AND EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BUFKIT INDICATES THE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST 36 HOURS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT/KMSS WILL JUST SEE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. KMPV AND KSLK MEANWHILE WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AROUND 1500
FT AND VISIBILITY OF 3SM CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE SITES. MOST SITES
WILL HAVE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AT KRUT
AND KMPV AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT....THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-8 KNOTS MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 230807
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS STORM RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BY
THIS EVENING...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED BACK INTO THE CATSKILLS AND
NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA PER THE LATEST SURFACE OBS PLOT/11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE LOOP. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SE QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS STRATUS LAYER
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS
CLOUD DECK ENDS UP IS RATHER LOW GIVEN THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING IT ALL THAT WELL. IN ADDITION A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AS
EVIDENT BY A HAZY APPEARANCE OUTSIDE AND A THICK FROST ALREADY
FORMING...WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS THE STRATUS LAYER WILL MOVE AS FAR WEST AS A LINE FROM
ELMIRA TO BINGHAMTON TO NORWICH BY DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST OF THIS
LINE SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG.
THE CLOUD FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE TOUGH TODAY WITH THE
STRATUS IN PLACE AT DAYBREAK....ALONG WITH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP
THE COAST. THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY ERODE A BIT ON THE WESTERN EDGES
BY MIDDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BUT THEN CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
PA. BEST SHOT AT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUN TODAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES UP THROUGH THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HERE TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 40S FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THAT HIGH MAY TRY TO MOVE IN A FEW SHOWERS OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD DUSK ACROSS THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS. EVEN HERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MAIN THREAT
FOR RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH FINALLY
RETREATS ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW THE MID-ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
FOR MOST...BUT UP TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 AM...RAIN EARLY IN THE DAY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE
EAST BY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST AND FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA. A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE
IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST UP THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THICKNESS VALUES WELL TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. LOOKS LIKE ALL THE FUN IS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY DICEY SITUATION DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM BY THU. THE MAIN
CULPRIT WILL BE A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK. UPPER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AS
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NATION/S HEARTLAND...ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA
BLOCK SUGGESTIVE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO
EXIT. THAT SAID...FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO SWIRL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS ENERGY
COMBINING WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM THE EASTERN GULF ON THU. PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
ON SOME OF THE NECESSARY ATTRIBUTES FOR AN EAST COAST SNOWFALL AS
AN UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY THU. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER JET
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO PRODUCE ENHANCED UPWARD ASCENT
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE CONTINUED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A DECENT INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT QPF ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AND POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL AS H85 TEMPS
WILL RESIDE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0 C UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN
VALUES BEGIN TO FALL AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. IT
SHOULD BE STATED THAT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ON THU WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF
ENHANCED PRECIP. AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INFILTRATES THE AREA AND H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. ITS A BIT TO EARLY TO GET EXCITED HOWEVER WHAT SUNRISES US
AT THIS POINT IS THE DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF. IF THE EVENT DOES MATERIALIZE AS SUGGESTED...IT MAY BE
A PROLONGED TYPE EVENT BASED ON SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND WRAP AROUND LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS
GOVERNING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE
ONSET OF SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ALONG THE EAST COAST. WOULD BE MUCH
MORE EXCITED IF A WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...BASED
ON POTENTIAL HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATED WITH THE SETTING SUN, THOUGH THERE IS
STILL A SMALL PATCH RECEDING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. SO WE WILL
KEEP RME TERMINAL IN A BKN MVFR DECK FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE
SCATTERING SKIES OUT.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS A COASTAL STORM
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AVP
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...DJP
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230555
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1255 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING. WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL
GAIN THE UPPER HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE
OF MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH
MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND
LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WITH VFR VISIBILITIES UNTIL ABOUT 11Z. CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY BECOME IFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING...11Z TO
14Z...TIMING A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. CEILINGS REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT CONFIDENT IN LIFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL RAIN DEVELOPS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. LIKELY
THAT IFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG AFTER 22Z.
WINDS FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST...030 TO 060...THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BY 12Z. A
BRIEF GUST APPROACHING 20 KT POSSIBLE AT SOME TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND FOG. RAIN
TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY WITH VISIBILITIES BECOMING MVFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY...GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES...WITH WINDS AND SEAS RAMPING UP
AS PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLES ARE
INCREASING...BUT ARE NOT AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON CURRENT LEVELS...2.5 TO 3 FT IS NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG/PW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KALY 230529
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1229 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WERE CALM OR NEARLY
SO...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPING AND IN MANY LOCATIONS WERE WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES
OF THE DEWPOINT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS PER LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG. GLENS FALLS
ALREADY DROPPED BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD SHORTLY AFTER 8PM ALTHOUGH
IT HAD IMPROVED TO MVFR. WE EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
TEMPORARY. LOWERED TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON MOST RECENT OBS.
THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING SHOWED A RATHER STRONG INVERSION JUST BELOW
THE 850 HPA LEVEL WITH A TEMPERATURE OF PLUS 1 AT 880 HPA AND
PLUS 6 AT 860. THERE WAS AN ABRUPT DRYING ABOVE THAT LEVEL AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS
MAY FORM IN THE INVERSION OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
VALLEY FOG. MORE GENERAL CLOUDINESS...WHICH COVERED SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.
WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.
IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A STATUS DECK
EVOLVING AND MIGRATING FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS MVFR CIG IS EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE WELL
ENTRENCHED BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...PRECEDING THIS MVFR
DECK...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE DOWN TO 1 WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
FOG/BR MAY DEVELOP AND WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE TAFS AS WELL /MORE
SO IN GFL THAN ALB-POU/.
THROUGH MONDAY...THIS STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER...PERHAPS
LIFTING TOWARD THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...WEAK SURFACE WAVE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES APPROACHES
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. IN
FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE DRIZZLE
TO DEVELOP AND WILL PLACE THIS INTO THE TAF FORECAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON OVRNT-TUE AM...MVFR...CHC OF LT RAIN/DZ.
TUE PM-WED...VFR...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
THU-FRI...VFR TO MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THRU FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
000
FXUS61 KBUF 230431
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1131 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM A LOW
MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN TO AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ASIDE FROM
SOME MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT...THE ONLY REAL
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO
ALL AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING...A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
SFC T-TD SPREADS EXPECTED TO GET FAIRLY NARROW WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FINE DAY THIS ATYPICAL NOVEMBER WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...AT LEAST
FOR AWHILE. THE SUN WILL FADE BEHIND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH...BUT THEN GETS SHEARED
NORTHEAST AND EAST AND TAKES MOST IF NOT ALL OF ITS MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST (SEE SHORT TERM-MONDAY NIGHT). WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHC
POPS CATT/ALLEG COS ONLY TWD SUNSET MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL
FOLLOW MILDER MAV/GFS ONES AS SEE NO REASON WHY WE WONT GET SIMILAR
NUMBERS TO TODAY`S (L-M 50S) WITH SIMILAR 850/925MB TEMPS AND ENOUGH
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN EASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
REGION WHILE A MID LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES NE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST TO BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. AT THIS TIME BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF BUF, MNLY ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT SHLD END BY LATER TUESDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN
PTNS OF THE CWA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHLD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEL
PROFILES SHOW PLENY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE HANGING OVER THE REGION
UNDER THE WEAK HIGH SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLEARING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS/ECMWF IN BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. HAVE
GONE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING IN THREAT OF SHWRS TO AREAS
FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST IN THE MRNG AND THEN REACHING AREAS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO DURG THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHLD CONTINUE WITH ABV NORMAL HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED. GENLY
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TUE AND LOW TO MID 50S WED. LOWS MON NGT SHLD
RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICIES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THE LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LKS WED
NGT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY BUT 850 TEMPS SHLD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP DURG THIS PERIOD TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT IN THE
LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DEVELOP A MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FARTHER WEST,
INLAND OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS MAY STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURG FRIDAY WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY, WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW EXPECT
CHC RAIN/SNOW SHWRS WITH HIGHS GENLY UPPER 30S TO ARND 40.
WILL CONTINUE CHC SNOW SHWRS SAT NGT SE OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO AS
COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OUTSIDE OF THESE
AREAS. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WITH ONLY A
WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SFC T-TD SPREADS EXPECTED TO GET
RELATIVELY NARROW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST.
ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUNRISE AND THE RETURN OF DIURNAL HEATING ON MONDAY...LEAVING
BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DURING MONDAY EVENING...THE CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AT THE SAME
TIME...THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS...THOUGH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PORTION
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND NOV 8
ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL BE
LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT ROC.
THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEAS SNOW ARE DEC 3 1899
AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THOSE DATES
AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT BEGINNING LATER
FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...JJP
CLIMATE...SFM
000
FXUS61 KBUF 230312
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1012 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM A LOW
MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN TO AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE AS OF 10 PM...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ASIDE FROM
SOME MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT...THE ONLY REAL
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG TO
ALL AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY. WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING...A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...AND
SFC T-TD SPREADS EXPECTED TO GET FAIRLY NARROW WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FORM JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FINE DAY THIS ATYPICAL NOVEMBER WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...AT LEAST
FOR AWHILE. THE SUN WILL FADE BEHIND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH...BUT THEN GETS SHEARED
NORTHEAST AND EAST AND TAKES MOST IF NOT ALL OF ITS MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST (SEE SHORT TERM-MONDAY NIGHT). WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHC
POPS CATT/ALLEG COS ONLY TWD SUNSET MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL
FOLLOW MILDER MAV/GFS ONES AS SEE NO REASON WHY WE WONT GET SIMILAR
NUMBERS TO TODAY`S (L-M 50S) WITH SIMILAR 850/925MB TEMPS AND ENOUGH
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN EASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
REGION WHILE A MID LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES NE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST TO BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. AT THIS TIME BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF BUF, MNLY ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT SHLD END BY LATER TUESDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN
PTNS OF THE CWA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHLD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEL
PROFILES SHOW PLENY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE HANGING OVER THE REGION
UNDER THE WEAK HIGH SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLEARING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS/ECMWF IN BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. HAVE
GONE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING IN THREAT OF SHWRS TO AREAS
FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST IN THE MRNG AND THEN REACHING AREAS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO DURG THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHLD CONTINUE WITH ABV NORMAL HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED. GENLY
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TUE AND LOW TO MID 50S WED. LOWS MON NGT SHLD
RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICIES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A
TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THE LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LKS WED
NGT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY BUT 850 TEMPS SHLD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP DURG THIS PERIOD TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT IN THE
LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DEVELOP A MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FARTHER WEST,
INLAND OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS MAY STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURG FRIDAY WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY, WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW EXPECT
CHC RAIN/SNOW SHWRS WITH HIGHS GENLY UPPER 30S TO ARND 40.
WILL CONTINUE CHC SNOW SHWRS SAT NGT SE OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO AS
COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OUTSIDE OF THESE
AREAS. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2330Z...TWO LINGERING PATCHES OF STRATUS...ONE NEAR KROC AND
ONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...CONTINUE TO ERODE IN
PLACE WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CLOUD LAYER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK APART OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 02Z...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WITH
ONLY A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND SFC DEWPOINTS STILL
RUNNING A BIT HIGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT.
ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUNRISE AND THE RETURN OF DIURNAL HEATING ON MONDAY...LEAVING
BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PORTION
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND NOV 8
ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL BE
LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT ROC.
THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEAS SNOW ARE DEC 3 1899
AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THOSE DATES
AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT BEGINNING LATER
FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...JJR/SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...JJP
CLIMATE...SFM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 230152
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
852 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THIS WEEK UNTIL A MORE INTENSE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM...THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS FINAL
PATCHES OF STRATOCU WERE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. SOME HIGH CLOUD
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT. THE LACK OF OVERALL CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING HAS
CAUSED TEMPS...ESPLY IN THE VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE TABLE,
EXCEEDING FCST TRENDS AND IN SOME CASES EVEN THE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT LOW. HAVE MADE LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS TO GRID FCSTS WHICH
WILL NOW MEAN THAT MOST OF THE COLDEST AREAS OF THE SRN TIER NY
AND NEPA WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWER TO
MID 30S ON THE HILLTOPS. NOTED THAT 12Z NAM GUIDANCE HAD ELM MIN
AT 27...AND FEEL THIS WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE OF LOWER ELEVATIONS
CONTRARY TO 18Z MAV GUIDANCE IN THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WAS TRACKING ACRS THE DEEP
SOUTH ATTM. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A FAIR AMNT OF ISEN LIFT
BETWEEN ABT THE 290 AND 310 K ISEN SFC/S SUGGESTING DEEP ISEN
LIFT SUPPORTG LIGHT PRECIP BY MON PM. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...NAM...00Z EURO...12Z GEM ALL TIME PRECIP INTO NRN PA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL INDICATE CHC/S FOR
PRECIP B4 00Z TUE. WILL HAVE CHC POPS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR IN NE PA AND SC NY.
BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES MON NGT FROM SRN U.S UPR LVL LOW AND ASSCTD
ISEN LIFTG. THE PRECIP SHUD CONT INTO TUE AM UNTIL UPR LVL WAVE AND
TROF AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE E BY 18Z TUE. QPF AMNTS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND EURO. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR ARND .25 INCHES TOTAL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST ARND
.25 INCHES AS WELL MAINLY FROM NE PA TO THE CATSKILLS. IN ANY
EVENT...A MINOR PRECIP EVENT SO NO ISSUES AT ALL IN THE REALM OF
FLOODING.
AFTER THIS UPR LVL TROF AND ASSCTD PV LOBE SHIFTS OFF TO THE E TUE
PM...RDGING FROM SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS IN AHEAD OF NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT NRN BRANCH SYSTEM. THIS RDG WILL KEEP DRY AND FAIRLY
MILD WX IN PLACE TUE PM INTO ERLY WED. NEXT CHC FOR SOME PRECIP CUD
COME AS ERLY AS WED PM IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THE GFS SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL WAVE MOVG INTO THE ERN LAKES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER UPR LVL TROF ENCOMPASSING THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A LOBE
OF HIGHER PV AND ASSCTD COOLING AT MID-LVL/S ROTATES OUT INTO NY AND
PA BTWN 18Z WED AND 00Z THU STEEPING LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND
700 MB. THIS TRIGGERS SOME LIGHT SHRA FOR C NY AND NE PA WED PM.
THE NAM IS MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NY/PA AND
SLOWER AND HENCE HAS NO QPF FOR WED PM. THE 00Z EURO IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE NAM AS WELL. THE GEFS AND SREF PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
IS IN THE SLGHT CHC TO LO CHC CAT. GUIDC ALSO SUGGESTS SLGHT CHC
TO CHC POPS...HIGHEST IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WILL GO ALONG
WITH PRVS FORECAST BUT DROP POPS IN THE SERN CWA AND RAISE
SLIGHTLY NW. ALSO WILL HAVE MOST OF THE ACVTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY DICEY SITUATION DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM BY THU. THE MAIN
CULPRIT WILL BE A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK. UPPER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AS
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NATION/S HEARTLAND...ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA
BLOCK SUGGESTIVE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO
EXIT. THAT SAID...FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO SWIRL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS ENERGY
COMBINING WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM THE EASTERN GULF ON THU. PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
ON SOME OF THE NECESSARY ATTRIBUTES FOR AN EAST COAST SNOWFALL AS
AN UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY THU. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER JET
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO PRODUCE ENHANCED UPWARD ASCENT
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE CONTINUED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A DECENT INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT QPF ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AND POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL AS H85 TEMPS
WILL RESIDE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0 C UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN
VALUES BEGIN TO FALL AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. IT
SHOULD BE STATED THAT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ON THU WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF
ENHANCED PRECIP. AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INFILTRATES THE AREA AND H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. ITS A BIT TO EARLY TO GET EXCITED HOWEVER WHAT SUNRISES US
AT THIS POINT IS THE DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF. IF THE EVENT DOES MATERIALIZE AS SUGGESTED...IT MAY BE
A PROLONGED TYPE EVENT BASED ON SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND WRAP AROUND LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS
GOVERNING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE
ONSET OF SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ALONG THE EAST COAST. WOULD BE MUCH
MORE EXCITED IF A WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...BASED
ON POTENTIAL HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATED WITH THE SETTING SUN, THOUGH THERE IS
STILL A SMALL PATCH RECEDING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. SO WE WILL
KEEP RME TERMINAL IN A BKN MVFR DECK FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE
SCATTERING SKIES OUT.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS A COASTAL STORM
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AVP
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...DJP
000
FXUS61 KALY 230147
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
845 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS WERE CALM OR NEARLY
SO...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPING AND IN MANY LOCATIONS WERE WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES
OF THE DEWPOINT. HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS PER LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
HAVE INCREASED THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE VALLEY FOG. GLENS FALLS
ALREADY DROPPED BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD SHORTLY AFTER 8PM ALTHOUGH
IT HAD IMPROVED TO MVFR. WE EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
TEMPORARY. LOWERED TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT BASED ON MOST RECENT OBS.
THE 00Z ALY SOUNDING SHOWED A RATHER STRONG INVERSION JUST BELOW
THE 850 HPA LEVEL WITH A TEMPERATURE OF PLUS 1 AT 880 HPA AND
PLUS 6 AT 860. THERE WAS AN ABRUPT DRYING ABOVE THAT LEVEL AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME LOW STRATUS
MAY FORM IN THE INVERSION OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
VALLEY FOG. MORE GENERAL CLOUDINESS...WHICH COVERED SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.
WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.
IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVE
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY. WITH T/TD SPREADS LOW AT
KALB/KGFL...AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FORECASTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT IFR FOG AT KGFL AS
EARLY AS 03Z...AND DEF FROM 06Z UNTIL SUNRISE. KALB IS A BIT
TRICKIER...AS WOULD EXPECT MVFR FOG THERE AS EARLY AS 05Z...AND DEF
AFTER 07Z...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL.
IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS AT THAT POINT. MEANWHILE...KPOU EXPERIENCED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTN...SO T/TD SPREAD NOT QUITE AS LARGE THERE. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER NJ...SO WILL ONLY EXPECT MVFR FOG AT WORST THERE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE.
ON MONDAY...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE AT KPOU...WHERE LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARBY THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS THERE. THIS STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...WHICH COULD EVEN LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR THE MON AFTN
HOURS. KGFL SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO REMAIN VFR ALL DAY. IN
ADDITION...SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KPOU BY THE MID
AFTN...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS THERE AS
WELL.
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...A LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WIND OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 5
KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN, MAINLY KPOU.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230137
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
837 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING. WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL
GAIN THE UPPER HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE
OF MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS
STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH
MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND
LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. THESE MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY EASTERLY...BUT SPEEDS MAY BE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLY...ALTHO NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE AFTER 21Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE PM.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES...WITH WINDS AND SEAS RAMPING UP
AS PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLES ARE
INCREASING...BUT ARE NOT AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON CURRENT LEVELS...2.5 TO 3 FT IS NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG/PW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BS/PW
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
000
FXUS61 KBTV 230122
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
822 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE MAY SPARK
A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 814 PM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION
AT 01Z RANGED FROM THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S WITH GENERALLY SMALL
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THE STRATOCUMULUS LAYER
HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED...WITH CLEARING NOTED ON 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY
ACROSS FAR WRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. WITH CLOUDS HAVING
DISSIPATED...HAVE INCLUDED THE PROSPECT FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
NRN ADIRONDACKS AND IMMEDIATE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. KSLK IS
REPORTING 4SM BR AS OF 01Z. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...TEMPS
WILL NOT FALL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S TO NEAR
30...NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PREVIOUS DISCO...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AS STRONG 1032
SFC HIGH ACROSS SRN QUEBEC SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
PROBLEMATICAL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.
WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO WEAKEN THROUGH TIME PER
LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES...CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM CYUL
SHOWING CAP STILL VERY STRONG WITH TEMPS WARMING AN IMPRESSIVE 15
DEG (28 TO 43 F) IN THE 900-850 MB LYR. WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN
10KT THROUGH THE 10 KFT LYR OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT
ALL TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF BKN/OVC STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN...ESP
NORTHERN VT/NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE
AT THIS TIME...SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DUE TO CURRENT DEGREE OF CLEARING ACROSS
ERN VT...FEEL TEMPS HERE WILL FALL THE QUICKEST THIS
EVENING...LIKELY LEADING TO PATCHY BR/FG FORMATION IN THESE LOCNS.
OTW WITH TD VALUES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 30S AND LACK OF
ADVECTIVE PROCESSES... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES BY MONDAY AS LL FLOW SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TIME. WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF RIDGE HOLDS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES HOWEVER...SO STILL LOOKING AT A NICE DAY ON
TAP DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OF MARITIME ORIGIN CREEPING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF VT BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN VERY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS WHERE SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
MAY OCCUR.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS THEN CREEP INTO THE FCST BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES
OFFSHORE NEAR THE BENCHMARK. NAM/GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE THE MORE
AGRESSIVE OF THE GROUP BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN NORTHWARD
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MEMBER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
KEEPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
AND HOLDING PRIMARY PCPN SOUTH. THUS WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS
QPF SOLN HERE AND WHILE OFFERING A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...KEEP ANY CHCS FOR LIGHT PCPN CONFINED TO THE
SRN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER HAVE LEANED MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MINS ACCORDINGLY.
BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANY CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MEAN THOUGH NARROW SFC TO
MID LVL RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED MOS SOLN
FOR TEMPS HERE AS SOME DISPARITIES ON CLOUD COVER APPARENT HERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. GRIDDED MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE GONE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE ABOVE GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS INDICATE GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
BEEN LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE FINALLY BEGUN
TO ERODE...AND EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BUFKIT INDICATES THE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST 36 HOURS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT/KMSS WILL JUST SEE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. KMPV AND KSLK MEANWHILE WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AROUND 1500
FT AND VISIBILITY OF 3SM CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE SITES. MOST SITES
WILL HAVE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AT KRUT
AND KMPV AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT....THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-8 KNOTS MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB
000
FXUS61 KOKX 230011
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
711 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED WSW INTO CT AND LONG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THEY WILL GAIN THE UPPER
HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVLOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THIS EVENING OUTSIDE PATCHY MVFR STRATUS. NORTHERN EDGE OF
LOWER CIGS CLOSE TO SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND BUT SAT IMAGERY
INDICATES IT MOVING AWAY.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PER TAFS...BUT TIMING IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAIN. BKN-OVC DECK MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED BY TEMPO GROUPS.
WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY EASTERLY...BUT SPEEDS MAY BE LIGHTER
THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLY...ALTHO NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. BEST CHANCE AFTER 21Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS IN THE PM.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE STARTED SCA RIGHT OFF THE BAT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES. WINDS/SEAS
JUST SHY OF CRITERIA ATTM...BUT SHOULD RAMP ABOVE THIS EVENING AS
PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUDFN/HARBOR/BAYS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE LONGER...SO DELAYED SCA
START TIME THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLES ARE
INCREASING...BUT ARE NOT AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON CURRENT LEVELS...2.5 TO 3 FT IS NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
000
FXUS61 KBUF 222339
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
639 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM A LOW
MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN TO AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...LAST OF THE STRATUS OVER MONROE-WAYNE CONTINUES TO
ERODE RAPIDLY...WITH MOST OF THE REGION ENJOYING A FINE NOVEMBER
AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN 50S. WE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT COMPLETELY BY SUNSET. ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
WILL INCLUDE IT IN TYPICAL SRN TIER VALLEYS BUT HOLD OFF ELSEWHERE
AS LOWER LAYERS HAVE PROBABLY MIXED OUT ENOUGH...BUT THIS NOT A
CERTAINTY SO EVE SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FINE DAY THIS ATYPICAL NOVEMBER WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...AT LEAST
FOR AWHILE. THE SUN WILL FADE BEHIND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH...BUT THEN GETS SHEARED
NORTHEAST AND EAST AND TAKES MOST IF NOT ALL OF ITS MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST (SEE SHORT TERM-MONDAY NIGHT). WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHC
POPS CATT/ALLEG COS ONLY TWD SUNSET MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL
FOLLOW MILDER MAV/GFS ONES AS SEE NO REASON WHY WE WONT GET SIMILAR
NUMBERS TO TODAY`S (L-M 50S) WITH SIMILAR 850/925MB TEMPS AND ENOUGH
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN EASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
REGION WHILE A MID LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES NE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST TO BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. AT THIS TIME BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF BUF, MNLY ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT SHLD END BY LATER TUESDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN
PTNS OF THE CWA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHLD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEL
PROFILES SHOW PLENY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE HANGING OVER THE REGION
UNDER THE WEAK HIGH SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLEARING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS/ECMWF IN BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. HAVE
GONE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING IN THREAT OF SHWRS TO AREAS
FROM THE FINGER LKS WEST IN THE MRNG AND THEN REACHING AREAS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO DURG THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHLD CONTINUE WITH ABV NORMAL HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED. GENLY
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TUE AND LOW TO MID 50S WED. LOWS MON NGT SHLD
RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE IN DICIES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THE LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LKS WED
NGT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY BUT 850 TEMPS SHLD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP DURG THIS PERIOD TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT IN THE
LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DEVELOP A MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS JUST A TAD FARTHER WEST,
INLAND OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS MAY STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURG FRIDAY WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY, WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW EXPECT
CHC RAIN/SNOW SHWRS WITH HIGHS GENLY UPPER 30S TO ARND 40.
WILL CONTINUE CHC SNOW SHWRS SAT NGT SE OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO AS
COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OUTSIDE OF THESE
AREAS. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2330Z...TWO LINGERING PATCHES OF STRATUS...ONE NEAR KROC AND
ONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...CONTINUE TO ERODE IN
PLACE WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE CLOUD LAYER.
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK APART OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 02Z...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
INTACT OVER THE AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. WITH
ONLY A WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND SFC DEWPOINTS STILL
RUNNING A BIT HIGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG FORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT.
ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE
WITH SUNRISE AND THE RETURN OF DIURNAL HEATING ON MONDAY...LEAVING
BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PORTION
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND NOV 8
ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL BE
LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT ROC.
THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEAS SNOW ARE DEC 3 1899
AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THOSE DATES
AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT BEGINNING LATER
FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...JJP
CLIMATE...SFM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 222338
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE MAY SPARK
A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AS
STRONG 1032 SFC HIGH ACROSS SRN QUEBEC SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. PROBLEMATICAL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TIME PER LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES...CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM
CYUL SHOWING CAP STILL VERY STRONG WITH TEMPS WARMING AN IMPRESSIVE
15 DEG (28 TO 43 F) IN THE 900-850 MB LYR. WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT THROUGH THE 10 KFT LYR OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
AT ALL TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF BKN/OVC STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN...ESP
NORTHERN VT/NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AT
THIS TIME...SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DUE TO CURRENT DEGREE OF CLEARING ACROSS ERN
VT...FEEL TEMPS HERE WILL FALL THE QUICKEST THIS EVENING...LIKELY
LEADING TO PATCHY BR/FG FORMATION IN THESE LOCNS. OTW WITH TD
VALUES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 30S AND LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES BY MONDAY AS LL FLOW SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TIME. WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF RIDGE HOLDS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES HOWEVER...SO STILL LOOKING AT A NICE DAY ON
TAP DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OF MARITIME ORIGIN CREEPING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF VT BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN VERY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS WHERE SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
MAY OCCUR.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS THEN CREEP INTO THE FCST BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES
OFFSHORE NEAR THE BENCHMARK. NAM/GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE THE MORE
AGRESSIVE OF THE GROUP BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN NORTHWARD
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MEMBER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
KEEPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
AND HOLDING PRIMARY PCPN SOUTH. THUS WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS
QPF SOLN HERE AND WHILE OFFERING A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...KEEP ANY CHCS FOR LIGHT PCPN CONFINED TO THE
SRN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER HAVE LEANED MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MINS ACCORDINGLY.
BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANY CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MEAN THOUGH NARROW SFC TO
MID LVL RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED MOS SOLN
FOR TEMPS HERE AS SOME DISPARITIES ON CLOUD COVER APPARENT HERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. GRIDDED MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE GONE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE ABOVE GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS INDICATE GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE
BEEN LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW YORK HAVE FINALLY BEGUN
TO ERODE...AND EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BUFKIT INDICATES THE INVERSION THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST 36 HOURS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...KEEPING MOISTURE TRAPPED AT LOW LEVELS. WITH CLEARING
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS A CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT/KMSS WILL JUST SEE OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. KMPV AND KSLK MEANWHILE WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS AROUND 1500
FT AND VISIBILITY OF 3SM CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE SITES. MOST SITES
WILL HAVE FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY BUT AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AT KRUT
AND KMPV AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT....THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5-8 KNOTS MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...MB
000
FXUS61 KALY 222336
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
636 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS BULK OF FA AND EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWS IN MOST AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF LAST
NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP TO
NEAR DEWPOINT AND HAVE THUS PLACED FOG IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.
WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.
IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THIS EVE
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP RAPIDLY. WITH T/TD SPREADS LOW AT
KALB/KGFL...AND WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FORECASTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS.
BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD EXPECT IFR FOG AT KGFL AS
EARLY AS 03Z...AND DEF FROM 06Z UNTIL SUNRISE. KALB IS A BIT
TRICKIER...AS WOULD EXPECT MVFR FOG THERE AS EARLY AS 05Z...AND DEF
AFTER 07Z...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AT ALL.
IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE JUST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE...AND THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS AT THAT POINT. MEANWHILE...KPOU EXPERIENCED LOW CLOUDS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTN...SO T/TD SPREAD NOT QUITE AS LARGE THERE. IN
ADDITION...SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT DUE TO AN
UPPER LOW OVER NJ...SO WILL ONLY EXPECT MVFR FOG AT WORST THERE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE.
ON MONDAY...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE AT KPOU...WHERE LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARBY THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS THERE. THIS STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...WHICH COULD EVEN LEAD TO MVFR CIGS AT KALB FOR THE MON AFTN
HOURS. KGFL SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO REMAIN VFR ALL DAY. IN
ADDITION...SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT KPOU BY THE MID
AFTN...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS THERE AS
WELL.
WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...A LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST SFC WIND OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS...AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 5
KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN, MAINLY KPOU.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11
000
FXUS61 KBGM 222326
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
626 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THIS WEEK UNTIL A MORE INTENSE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
VIS IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW ST/SC ERODING ACRS MUCH OF NY/PA. THE
CLDS WERE ERODING IN RESPONSE TO SUBSDC AND SOME DIURNAL MIXING
WHICH WAS LEADING TO DRY AIR COMING DOWN INTO THE GROWING BNDRY
LAYER. I EXPECT SKIES WILL BE PC MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MUCH OF NE
PA AND CATSKILLS WHERE LO CLDS CONT TO HANG TOUGH AS PER RECENT
VIS IMAGERY LOOP.
A LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL CONT TO SLIDE E-SE AND COVER FM
NEW ENGLAND TO NEW BRUNSWICK BY 12Z MON AS AN UPR LVL RDG BUILDS
IN ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LL WINDS TO TURN MORE E-SERLY ACRS C
NY AND NE PA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE TO ADVECT
MORE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND CLDS IN ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE CATSKILLS...POCONOS...SC NY AND NRN PA. I CUD SEE CLDS
FILLING IN SOME TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOIST ERLY LL FLO AND
NIGHTTIME COOLING OF THE BNDRY LAYER. WILL HV PC TO MC SKIES IN
GRIDS TONIGHT. WILL RAISE MIN/S SLIGHTLY ABV GUIDC FOR TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO ANTICIPATED CLDS IN MUCH OF CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WAS TRACKING ACRS THE DEEP
SOUTH ATTM. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A FAIR AMNT OF ISEN LIFT
BETWEEN ABT THE 290 AND 310 K ISEN SFC/S SUGGESTING DEEP ISEN
LIFT SUPPORTG LIGHT PRECIP BY MON PM. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...NAM...00Z EURO...12Z GEM ALL TIME PRECIP INTO NRN PA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL INDICATE CHC/S FOR
PRECIP B4 00Z TUE. WILL HAVE CHC POPS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR IN NE PA AND SC NY.
BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES MON NGT FROM SRN U.S UPR LVL LOW AND ASSCTD
ISEN LIFTG. THE PRECIP SHUD CONT INTO TUE AM UNTIL UPR LVL WAVE AND
TROF AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE E BY 18Z TUE. QPF AMNTS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND EURO. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR ARND .25 INCHES TOTAL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST ARND
.25 INCHES AS WELL MAINLY FROM NE PA TO THE CATSKILLS. IN ANY
EVENT...A MINOR PRECIP EVENT SO NO ISSUES AT ALL IN THE REALM OF
FLOODING.
AFTER THIS UPR LVL TROF AND ASSCTD PV LOBE SHIFTS OFF TO THE E TUE
PM...RDGING FROM SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS IN AHEAD OF NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT NRN BRANCH SYSTEM. THIS RDG WILL KEEP DRY AND FAIRLY
MILD WX IN PLACE TUE PM INTO ERLY WED. NEXT CHC FOR SOME PRECIP CUD
COME AS ERLY AS WED PM IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THE GFS SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL WAVE MOVG INTO THE ERN LAKES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER UPR LVL TROF ENCOMPASSING THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A LOBE
OF HIGHER PV AND ASSCTD COOLING AT MID-LVL/S ROTATES OUT INTO NY AND
PA BTWN 18Z WED AND 00Z THU STEEPING LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND
700 MB. THIS TRIGGERS SOME LIGHT SHRA FOR C NY AND NE PA WED PM.
THE NAM IS MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NY/PA AND
SLOWER AND HENCE HAS NO QPF FOR WED PM. THE 00Z EURO IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE NAM AS WELL. THE GEFS AND SREF PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
IS IN THE SLGHT CHC TO LO CHC CAT. GUIDC ALSO SUGGESTS SLGHT CHC
TO CHC POPS...HIGHEST IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WILL GO ALONG
WITH PRVS FORECAST BUT DROP POPS IN THE SERN CWA AND RAISE
SLIGHTLY NW. ALSO WILL HAVE MOST OF THE ACVTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY DICEY SITUATION DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM BY THU. THE MAIN
CULPRIT WILL BE A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK. UPPER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AS
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NATION/S HEARTLAND...ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA
BLOCK SUGGESTIVE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO
EXIT. THAT SAID...FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO SWIRL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS ENERGY
COMBINING WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM THE EASTERN GULF ON THU. PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
ON SOME OF THE NECESSARY ATTRIBUTES FOR AN EAST COAST SNOWFALL AS
AN UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY THU. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER JET
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO PRODUCE ENHANCED UPWARD ASCENT
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE CONTINUED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A DECENT INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT QPF ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AND POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL AS H85 TEMPS
WILL RESIDE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0 C UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN
VALUES BEGIN TO FALL AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. IT
SHOULD BE STATED THAT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ON THU WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF
ENHANCED PRECIP. AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INFILTRATES THE AREA AND H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. ITS A BIT TO EARLY TO GET EXCITED HOWEVER WHAT SUNRISES US
AT THIS POINT IS THE DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF. IF THE EVENT DOES MATERIALIZE AS SUGGESTED...IT MAY BE
A PROLONGED TYPE EVENT BASED ON SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND WRAP AROUND LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS
GOVERNING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE
ONSET OF SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ALONG THE EAST COAST. WOULD BE MUCH
MORE EXCITED IF A WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...BASED
ON POTENTIAL HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CEILINGS DISSIPATED WITH THE SETTING SUN, THOUGH THERE IS
STILL A SMALL PATCH RECEDING OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. SO WE WILL
KEEP RME TERMINAL IN A BKN MVFR DECK FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE
SCATTERING SKIES OUT.
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS A COASTAL STORM
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AVP
TERMINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...DJP
000
FXUS61 KOKX 222139
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
439 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED WSW INTO CT AND LONG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THEY WILL GAIN THE UPPER
HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVLOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS EVENING. THICK ST/SC DECK OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS INCHING
WESTWARD. TENDRELS OF ST ALSO DEVELOPING OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 21Z...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SAT TRENDS TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND INCLUDE IN TAFS.
ONCE CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY FROM 350 TO 060 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY ...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE STARTED SCA RIGHT OFF THE BAT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES. WINDS/SEAS
JUST SHY OF CRITERIA ATTM...BUT SHOULD RAMP ABOVE THIS EVENING AS
PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUDFN/HARBOR/BAYS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE LONGER...SO DELAYED SCA
START TIME THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF E-NE WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WATER
LEVELS AROUND 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLES ARE
INCREASING...BUT ARE NOT AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
BASED ON CURRENT LEVELS...2.5 TO 3 FT IS NEEDED FOR MINOR FLOODING
FOR BOTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THEREFORE NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 222135
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL HEAD NORTHEAST JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEN PASS SOUTHEAST
OF LONG ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT RE SKY COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. PATCHES OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED WSW INTO CT AND LONG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED...BUT WITH EVENTUAL
COOLING BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THINK THEY WILL GAIN THE UPPER
HAND...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES...INDICATIVE OF MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. E-NE WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT BAY...WITH MINS AOA 12Z MAV GUIDANCE...WITH
MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND AND LOWER/MID 40S IN URBAN AND
COASTAL SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME AROUND TO SOME AGREEMENT RE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVLOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TONIGHT...AND MOVING SLOWLY UP THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE 12Z GFS/RGEM/ECMWF WERE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF JUST A TAD WEAKER/SLOWER...WHILE THE NAM WAS A BIT FARTHER
WEST. DISCOUNTED GEFS AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS AS THEY APPEARED TOO
SUPPRESSED...NOT GIVING ENOUGH CREDENCE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
FARTHER NORTHEAST LATE MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS A RESULT SIDED WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH CLOSELY PARALLELS THE ECMWF...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING MON ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CATEGORICAL POP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN MON
NIGHT. FCST MODELS APPEAR TOO QUICK TO DRY THINGS OUT ON TUE...AND
THINK ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT VIA CYCLONIC FLOW...EVEN
SOME MODEST OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND...
WILL HANG BACK TO PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH
TUE MORNING.
SKY COVER AND TEMPS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SIDED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND MILDER TEMPS...BUT COULD
JUST AS EASILY ENVISION CLEARING SKIES...WITH BOTH LOWER TEMPS AND
SOME FOG VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LINGERING GROUND MOISTURE. A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ARRIVE WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POP LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
FOR TEMPS...DURING THE PRECIP EVENT BLENDED 12Z MAV AND NAM 2M TEMPS
TO YIELD TEMPS COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. SIDED WITH TEMPS WARMER THAN
12Z MAV GUIDANCE TUE NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS ALLUDED
TO ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOSED LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW TRACKS JUST AHEAD OF IT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA...AND ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THIS LOW. AS SUCH...AMPLIFICATION OF THIS LOW TAKES PLACE AS IT
PLOWS TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. ONE WOULD EXPECT A SFC
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLC STATES AND MOVE NORTHWARD
TO A POSITION JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD BECOME PRIMARY LOW
IN TIME...WITH DEEPENING OCCURRING OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY.
GGEM DOES NOT OFFER THIS SCENARIO...WITH NOT MUCH COASTAL
DEVELOPMENT EVIDENT.
AS SUCH...GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME. EXACT DETAILS STILL HAZY...AND EC/HPC FOLLOWED THIS TIME
FRAME.
WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD QPF NOT ANTICIPATED QUITE YET. RAIN CHANCES WOULD
CONTINUE FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. COULD BE WINDY THOUGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST. LINGERING
INSTABILITY POPS WARRANTED INTO SAT...WITH DRYING THEREAFTER.
AS FOR ANY MIXED PRECIP...IT WILL BE COLD ALOFT BY THE WEEKEND (FRI
NIGHT AND SAT) AS UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. ANY SNOW MENTION
WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS IN DATABASE THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS EVENING. THICK ST/SC DECK OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS INCHING
WESTWARD. TENDRELS OF ST ALSO DEVELOPING OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 21Z...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SAT TRENDS TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND INCLUDE IN TAFS.
ONCE CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY FROM 350 TO 060 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY ...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE STARTED SCA RIGHT OFF THE BAT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES. WINDS/SEAS
JUST SHY OF CRITERIA ATTM...BUT SHOULD RAMP ABOVE THIS EVENING AS
PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW. QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE
SOUDFN/HARBOR/BAYS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE LONGER...SO DELAYED SCA
START TIME THERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
E-NE FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT...WITH MAX OCEAN SEAS 9 OR 10 FT...JUST SHY OF
WAVEWATCH VALUES. GALES UNLIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL ON THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN WATERS LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE
MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. PROBABILITY OF GALES LESS THAN
50 PERCENT ATTM...SO DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH.
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUE AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BUT SEAS
SLOW TO SUBSIDE AFTER THE LOW PASSES. SCA CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT...AND EAST THURSDAY AS INLAND
LOW/FRONT NEARS. IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF SE/MID ATLC COAST LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY BACK TO
THE NORTH. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST/NW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS JUST TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP
QUITE A BIT.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEAS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS COASTAL
LOW IMPACTS THE AREA WATERS. WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE.
EASTERN WATERS ON FRIDAY WILL OBSERVE HIGHEST SEAS DUE TO STRONG
WEST FETCH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT CALLS FOR 1/2 INCH MOST OF THE AREA...AND
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTER LONG ISLAND.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES OF 2.0-2.5 FT AND 2.5-3.0 FT ARE NEEDED FOR THE
HIGHER/LOWER HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MON/TUE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1.0 FT...BUT
IS BASED ON A TRACK THAT BOTH FASTER AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THAN
CURRENT THINKING. EVEN SO...A SLOWER/CLOSER LOW TRACK MAY STILL NOT
PRODUCE DEPARTURES LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS / NEAR TERM / SHORT TERM / HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION / TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BS
MARINE...GOODMAN/PW
000
FXUS61 KALY 222108
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS FAR EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SERIES OF MUCH STRONGER STORMS WILL
IMPACT OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER
FROM THANKSGIVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS BULK OF FA AND EXPECT MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
EVENING. EXPECT TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWS IN MOST AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THOSE OF LAST
NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP TO
NEAR DEWPOINT AND HAVE THUS PLACED FOG IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FA WILL BE BRUSHED BY COASTAL LOW MAINLY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY EXPECT THAT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA BEFORE 18Z AS
GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE H10-H8. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
CHANCE POPS MAINLY UP TO 190. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDS AND SLOW RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FA.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW FAR
NORTH AND WEST PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXTEND WITH SURFACE LOW
PASSING WELL EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
JUST CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF FA. H10-H8 FRONTOGENESIS BARELY REACHES SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN AXIS SLIDES WELL EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND OFF CAPE COD. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE VERY
LITTLE QPF TO WORK WITH ACROSS FA AND ONLY HAVE QPF AMOUNTS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH FAR NW
PORTION OF FA TO JUST OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION. ON MONDAY NIGHT WOULD EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN ACRS WRN
ADIRONDACKS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT NOT SURE MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PLACED A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 4S0 WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A PHASED STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST.
ON THANKSGIVING EVE INTO THANKSGIVING...A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IN THE VICINITY
OF FLORIDA. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CUTOFF TROUGH...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS. WITH 850 HPA TEMPS REMAINING ABOUT 1-5
DEGREES C...THIS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER SCT DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE CHC RANGE.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE
INTERESTING...HOWEVER...STILL MUDDLED DUE TO SOME MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES. THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AT 500 HPA. MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NJ...WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF AND MANY MEMBERS OF THE 12 UTC GEFS AS
WELL.
WITH THIS SFC/UPPER LEVEL SETUP...A STEADY PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THE AIRMASS STARTING OUT NOT AWFULLY COLD AT ALL...PRECIP TYPE
WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STORM.
SOME COLDER AIR WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT...MUCH OF THE PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS
TO BE A COLD RAIN...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOW 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
BY LATE FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
COAST OF MAINE OR EVEN SLIGHTLY INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR WILL BE RUSHING IN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...AND 850 HPA TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TO 0 TO -4 DEGREES C. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEYS. SOME STEADY SNOW MAY CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DACKS DUE TO A DEFORMATION BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND OF THE EXACT TRACK OF BOTH THE 500 HPA LOW AND SFC
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
CHANNELED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BY SATURDAY...LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIP TYPE WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATION AND DIURNAL
DEPENDENT...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE LUCKY TO HIT THE 40 DEGREE
MARK...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS.
IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE
MODELS...THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC GGEM SHOWS NO PHASING...AS WELL AS A FEW GEFS
MEMBERS AS WELL. CONFIDENCE WILL BE INCREASED...HOWEVER...IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY/S
MODEL SUITE.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE
CLEARING LINE TRENDING TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED
BY 22-23Z AT KGFL AND KALB...BUT BECOME SCATTERED AT POU BY 19Z.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED...THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NO CEILING. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE BORDERLINE
IFR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL HAVE MORE DATA TO EVALUATE THE
FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED IN TAFS FOR
TONIGHT..STAY TUNED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST...AT
10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE...AND CLOUDS WILL
REFORM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. SO..BETWEEN
10-14Z...MVFR CEILING WILL DEVELOP AT POU...WHILE VFR CEILING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS KALB AND KGF TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
QPF ACROSS NW ZONES TO A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...11
000
FXUS61 KBUF 222106
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
KEEP DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM A LOW
MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN TO AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...LAST OF THE STRATUS OVER MONROE-WAYNE CONTINUES TO
ERODE RAPIDLY...WITH MOST OF THE REGION ENJOYING A FINE NOVEMBER
AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN 50S. WE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT COMPLETELY BY SUNSET. ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
WILL INCLUDE IT IN TYPICAL SRN TIER VALLEYS BUT HOLD OFF ELSEWHERE
AS LOWER LAYERS HAVE PROBABLY MIXED OUT ENOUGH...BUT THIS NOT A
CERTAINTY SO EVE SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXTENSION.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FINE DAY THIS ATYPICAL NOVEMBER WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...AT LEAST
FOR AWHILE. THE SUN WILL FADE BEHIND THICKENING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH...BUT THEN GETS SHEARED
NORTHEAST AND EAST AND TAKES MOST IF NOT ALL OF ITS MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST (SEE SHORT TERM-MONDAY NIGHT). WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHC
POPS CATT/ALLEG COS ONLY TWD SUNSET MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL
FOLLOW MILDER MAV/GFS ONES AS SEE NO REASON WHY WE WONT GET SIMILAR
NUMBERS TO TODAY`S (L-M 50S) WITH SIMILAR 850/925MB TEMPS AND ENOUGH
SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN EASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE
REGION WHILE A MID LVL SHORTWAVE MOVES NE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.
THE COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO CAPE COD BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST TO BRING THE THREAT OF LIGHT
RAIN. AT THIS TIME BOTH THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST OF BUF, MNLY ACROSS AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT, AND AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE THREAT SHLD END BY LATER TUESDAY ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN
PTNS OF THE CWA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHLD FOLLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODEL
PROFILES SHOW PLENY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE HANGING OVER THE REGION
UNDER THE WEAK HIGH SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY CLEARING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTOT HE
WESTERN LAKES BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN
THE GFS/ECMWF IN BRINGING IN THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE
TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF BRINGING IN THREAT OF SHWRS TO AREAS FROM THE
FINGER LKS WEST IN THE MRNG AND THEN REACHING AREAS EAST OF LK
ONTARIO DURG THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS SHLD CONTINUE WITH ABV NORMAL HIGHS BOTH TUE AND WED. GENLY
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TUE AND LOW TO MID 50S WED. LOWS MON NGT SHLD
RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...THE LOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL LKS WED
NGT INTO THNANKSGIVING DAY BUT 850 TEMPS SHLD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP DURG THIS PERIOD TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT
WITH A CAHNCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT IN THE
LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
DEVELOP A MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS JSUT A TAD FARTHER WEST,
INLAND OVER NEW ENGLAND. BOTH OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL ON FRIDAY AS TEMPS MAY STILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURG FRIDAY WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY, WITH NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW EXPECT
CHC RAIN/SNOW SHWRS WITH HIGHS GENLY UPPER 30S TO ARND 40.
WILL CONTINUE CHC SNOW SHWRS SAT NGT SE OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO AS
COLD NW FLOW CONTINUES WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS OUTSIDE OF THESE
AREAS. ON SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH
DRIER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER THE
LAST OF THE STRATUS MIXES OUT BY 21Z OR SO. FOG TONIGHT SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY
RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW BRUNSWICK AND LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PORTION
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
STILL NO MEASURABLE SNOW SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER MOST OF WESTERN NY.
WE ARE ALREADY TWO WEEKS LATE (NORMAL DATES ARE NOV 7 BUF AND NOV 8
ROC). WE WILL AT LEAST GET TO FRIDAY (27TH) AND IF SO...WILL BE
LATEST IN 61 YRS (1948) AT BUF...AND LATEST IN 46 YRS (1963) AT ROC.
THE ALL TIME RECORD LATEST DATES FOR FIRST MEAS SNOW ARE DEC 3 1899
AT BUF AND DEC 10 1948 AT ROC. WE WILL NOT LIKELY REACH THOSE DATES
AS WX PATTERN LOOKS COLDER WITH SOME SNOW THREAT BEGINNING LATER
FRIDAY. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJP
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...JJP
LONG TERM...JJP
AVIATION...SFM/TMA
MARINE...JJP
CLIMATE...SFM
000
FXUS61 KBGM 222040
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
340 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THIS WEEK UNTIL A MORE INTENSE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
VIS IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW ST/SC ERODING ACRS MUCH OF NY/PA. THE
CLDS WERE ERODING IN RESPONSE TO SUBSDC AND SOME DIURNAL MIXING
WHICH WAS LEADING TO DRY AIR COMING DOWN INTO THE GROWING BNDRY
LAYER. I EXPECT SKIES WILL BE PC MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MUCH OF NE
PA AND CATSKILLS WHERE LO CLDS CONT TO HANG TOUGH AS PER RECENT
VIS IMAGERY LOOP.
A LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL CONT TO SLIDE E-SE AND COVER FM
NEW ENGLAND TO NEW BRUNSWICK BY 12Z MON AS AN UPR LVL RDG BUILDS
IN ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LL WINDS TO TURN MORE E-SERLY ACRS C
NY AND NE PA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE TO ADVECT
MORE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND CLDS IN ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE CATSKILLS...POCONOS...SC NY AND NRN PA. I CUD SEE CLDS
FILLING IN SOME TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOIST ERLY LL FLO AND
NIGHTTIME COOLING OF THE BNDRY LAYER. WILL HV PC TO MC SKIES IN
GRIDS TONIGHT. WILL RAISE MIN/S SLIGHTLY ABV GUIDC FOR TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO ANTICIPATED CLDS IN MUCH OF CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WAS TRACKING ACRS THE DEEP
SOUTH ATTM. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A FAIR AMNT OF ISEN LIFT
BETWEEN ABT THE 290 AND 310 K ISEN SFC/S SUGGESTING DEEP ISEN
LIFT SUPPORTG LIGHT PRECIP BY MON PM. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...NAM...00Z EURO...12Z GEM ALL TIME PRECIP INTO NRN PA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL INDICATE CHC/S FOR
PRECIP B4 00Z TUE. WILL HAVE CHC POPS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR IN NE PA AND SC NY.
BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES MON NGT FROM SRN U.S UPR LVL LOW AND ASSCTD
ISEN LIFTG. THE PRECIP SHUD CONT INTO TUE AM UNTIL UPR LVL WAVE AND
TROF AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE E BY 18Z TUE. QPF AMNTS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND EURO. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR ARND .25 INCHES TOTAL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST ARND
.25 INCHES AS WELL MAINLY FROM NE PA TO THE CATSKILLS. IN ANY
EVENT...A MINOR PRECIP EVENT SO NO ISSUES AT ALL IN THE REALM OF
FLOODING.
AFTER THIS UPR LVL TROF AND ASSCTD PV LOBE SHIFTS OFF TO THE E TUE
PM...RDGING FROM SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS IN AHEAD OF NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT NRN BRANCH SYSTEM. THIS RDG WILL KEEP DRY AND FAIRLY
MILD WX IN PLACE TUE PM INTO ERLY WED. NEXT CHC FOR SOME PRECIP CUD
COME AS ERLY AS WED PM IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THE GFS SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL WAVE MOVG INTO THE ERN LAKES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER UPR LVL TROF ENCOMPASSING THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A LOBE
OF HIGHER PV AND ASSCTD COOLING AT MID-LVL/S ROTATES OUT INTO NY AND
PA BTWN 18Z WED AND 00Z THU STEEPING LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND
700 MB. THIS TRIGGERS SOME LIGHT SHRA FOR C NY AND NE PA WED PM.
THE NAM IS MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NY/PA AND
SLOWER AND HENCE HAS NO QPF FOR WED PM. THE 00Z EURO IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE NAM AS WELL. THE GEFS AND SREF PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
IS IN THE SLGHT CHC TO LO CHC CAT. GUIDC ALSO SUGGESTS SLGHT CHC
TO CHC POPS...HIGHEST IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WILL GO ALONG
WITH PRVS FORECAST BUT DROP POPS IN THE SERN CWA AND RAISE
SLIGHTLY NW. ALSO WILL HAVE MOST OF THE ACVTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY DICEY SITUATION DEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM BY THU. THE MAIN
CULPRIT WILL BE A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
CONCLUSION OF THE WEEK. UPPER PATTERN WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AS
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NATION/S HEARTLAND...ALONG WITH A
DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. PATTERN RESEMBLES AN OMEGA
BLOCK SUGGESTIVE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO
EXIT. THAT SAID...FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO SWIRL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS ENERGY
COMBINING WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FROM THE EASTERN GULF ON THU. PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
ON SOME OF THE NECESSARY ATTRIBUTES FOR AN EAST COAST SNOWFALL AS
AN UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY THU. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER JET
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO PRODUCE ENHANCED UPWARD ASCENT
ACROSS THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE CONTINUED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A DECENT INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT QPF ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AND POINTS WEST. TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SNOWFALL AS H85 TEMPS
WILL RESIDE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 0 C UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN
VALUES BEGIN TO FALL AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. IT
SHOULD BE STATED THAT BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ON THU WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF
ENHANCED PRECIP. AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INFILTRATES THE AREA AND H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. ITS A BIT TO EARLY TO GET EXCITED HOWEVER WHAT SUNRISES US
AT THIS POINT IS THE DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF. IF THE EVENT DOES MATERIALIZE AS SUGGESTED...IT MAY BE
A PROLONGED TYPE EVENT BASED ON SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND WRAP AROUND LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS
GOVERNING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE
ONSET OF SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ALONG THE EAST COAST. WOULD BE MUCH
MORE EXCITED IF A WELL ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...BASED
ON POTENTIAL HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS IN
THE HWO.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RECENT TRENDS AS DEPICTED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE OVERLYING CLOUD COVER ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF
CENTRAL NY AS OF 17Z. CONCERN FOR AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LOW CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET. FOR
NOW FEEL MOST LOCATIONS WILL RAISE ABOVE MVFR RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN EVENTUAL LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO COOL. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. LOW
CLOUDS /POSSIBLY IFR/ WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBTV 222035
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE MAY SPARK
A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AS
STRONG 1032 SFC HIGH ACROSS SRN QUEBEC SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. PROBLEMATICAL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TIME PER LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES...CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM
CYUL SHOWING CAP STILL VERY STRONG WITH TEMPS WARMING AN IMPRESSIVE
15 DEG (28 TO 43 F) IN THE 900-850 MB LYR. WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT THROUGH THE 10 KFT LYR OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
AT ALL TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF BKN/OVC STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN...ESP
NORTHERN VT/NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AT
THIS TIME...SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DUE TO CURRENT DEGREE OF CLEARING ACROSS ERN
VT...FEEL TEMPS HERE WILL FALL THE QUICKEST THIS EVENING...LIKELY
LEADING TO PATCHY BR/FG FORMATION IN THESE LOCNS. OTW WITH TD
VALUES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 30S AND LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES BY MONDAY AS LL FLOW SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TIME. WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF RIDGE HOLDS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES HOWEVER...SO STILL LOOKING AT A NICE DAY ON
TAP DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OF MARITIME ORIGIN CREEPING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF VT BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN VERY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS WHERE SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
MAY OCCUR.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS THEN CREEP INTO THE FCST BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES
OFFSHORE NEAR THE BENCHMARK. NAM/GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE THE MORE
AGRESSIVE OF THE GROUP BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN NORTHWARD
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MEMBER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
KEEPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
AND HOLDING PRIMARY PCPN SOUTH. THUS WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS
QPF SOLN HERE AND WHILE OFFERING A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...KEEP ANY CHCS FOR LIGHT PCPN CONFINED TO THE
SRN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER HAVE LEANED MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MINS ACCORDINGLY.
BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANY CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MEAN THOUGH NARROW SFC TO
MID LVL RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED MOS SOLN
FOR TEMPS HERE AS SOME DISPARITIES ON CLOUD COVER APPARENT HERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE PERIOD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. GRIDDED MOS POPS LOOK TOO HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE GONE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND A DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THURSDAY...WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON
FRIDAY IN THE ZONE FORECASTS. EXPECTING RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
WORKS INTO THE REGION. HAVE GONE ABOVE GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY.
EXPECTING RAIN TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION.
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ADIRONDACKS FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
MODELS INDICATE GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR SNOW.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT...WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE
HANGING IN FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AS THESE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10000 FEET. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AREA WILL AGAIN BE UNDER A LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECTING ANY AREAS THAT
HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY SEE A STRATUS DECK
REFORM OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME LOCAL
IFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE BECOME MVFR/VFR BY 16Z
MONDAY...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY MVFR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY
MAINLY VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MAINLY IFR IN RAIN ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH UP
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
000
FXUS61 KBTV 221900
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. LOW PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE MAY SPARK
A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...MORE QUIET WEATHER ON TAP TONIGHT AS
STRONG 1032 SFC HIGH ACROSS SRN QUEBEC SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. PROBLEMATICAL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TIME PER LATEST FCST SOUNDING PROFILES...CURRENT ACARS DATA FROM
CYUL SHOWING CAP STILL VERY STRONG WITH TEMPS WARMING AN IMPRESSIVE
15 DEG (28 TO 43 F) IN THE 900-850 MB LYR. WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10KT THROUGH THE 10 KFT LYR OVERNIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
AT ALL TO SEE SOME DEGREE OF BKN/OVC STRATUS TO FILL BACK IN...ESP
NORTHERN VT/NY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEANED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE AT
THIS TIME...SHOWING GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DUE TO CURRENT DEGREE OF CLEARING ACROSS ERN
VT...FEEL TEMPS HERE WILL FALL THE QUICKEST THIS EVENING...LIKELY
LEADING TO PATCHY BR/FG FORMATION IN THESE LOCNS. OTW WITH TD
VALUES GENERALLY HOLDING IN THE 30S AND LACK OF ADVECTIVE
PROCESSES... OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIME PROVINCES BY MONDAY AS LL FLOW SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TIME. WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF RIDGE HOLDS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES HOWEVER...SO STILL LOOKING AT A NICE DAY ON
TAP DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OF MARITIME ORIGIN CREEPING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF VT BY LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN VERY UNIFORM...MAINLY IN THE U40S TO L50S WITH MILDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE WRN DACKS WHERE SOME LIGHT DOWNSLOPING
EFFECT MAY OCCUR.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLNS THEN CREEP INTO THE FCST BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES
OFFSHORE NEAR THE BENCHMARK. NAM/GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE THE MORE
AGRESSIVE OF THE GROUP BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN NORTHWARD
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT MEMBER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
KEEPING WESTWARD EXTENSION OF WRN ATLANTIC RIDGING ACROSS OUR AREA
AND HOLDING PRIMARY PCPN SOUTH. THUS WILL LEAN MORE CLOSELY TO ITS
QPF SOLN HERE AND WHILE OFFERING A BROAD INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...KEEP ANY CHCS FOR LIGHT PCPN CONFINED TO THE
SRN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED HIGHER DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER HAVE LEANED MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE MINS ACCORDINGLY.
BY LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ANY CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN
SOUTH WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS MEAN THOUGH NARROW SFC TO
MID LVL RIDGING TRAVERSES AREA. STUCK CLOSE TO A BLENDED MOS SOLN
FOR TEMPS HERE AS SOME DISPARITIES ON CLOUD COVER APPARENT HERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT...WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE
HANGING IN FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AS THESE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10000 FEET. BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE AREA WILL AGAIN BE UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECTING ANY AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY SEE A STRATUS DECK REFORM OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME LOCAL IFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE BECOME
MVFR/VFR BY 16Z MONDAY...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY MVFR ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY
MAINLY VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MAINLY IFR IN RAIN ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH UP
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH
000
FXUS61 KBGM 221858
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THIS WEEK UNTIL A MORE INTENSE STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIS IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW ST/SC ERODING ACRS MUCH OF NY/PA. THE
CLDS WERE ERODING IN RESPONSE TO SUBSDC AND SOME DIURNAL MIXING
WHICH WAS LEADING TO DRY AIR COMING DOWN INTO THE GROWING BNDRY
LAYER. I EXPECT SKIES WILL BE PC MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MUCH OF NE
PA AND CATSKILLS WHERE LO CLDS CONT TO HANG TOUGH AS PER RECENT
VIS IMAGERY LOOP.
A LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL CONT TO SLIDE E-SE AND COVER FM
NEW ENGLAND TO NEW BRUNSWICK BY 12Z MON AS AN UPR LVL RDG BUILDS
IN ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LL WINDS TO TURN MORE E-SERLY ACRS C
NY AND NE PA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE TO ADVECT
MORE LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND CLDS IN ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE CATSKILLS...POCONOS...SC NY AND NRN PA. I CUD SEE CLDS
FILLING IN SOME TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOIST ERLY LL FLO AND
NIGHTTIME COOLING OF THE BNDRY LAYER. WILL HV PC TO MC SKIES IN
GRIDS TONIGHT. WILL RAISE MIN/S SLIGHTLY ABV GUIDC FOR TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO ANTICIPATED CLDS IN MUCH OF CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WAS TRACKING ACRS THE DEEP
SOUTH ATTM. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A FAIR AMNT OF ISEN LIFT
BETWEEN ABT THE 290 AND 310 K ISEN SFC/S SUGGESTING DEEP ISEN
LIFT SUPPORTG LIGHT PRECIP BY MON PM. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE
GFS...NAM...00Z EURO...12Z GEM ALL TIME PRECIP INTO NRN PA BY 00Z
TUESDAY. THE GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL INDICATE CHC/S FOR
PRECIP B4 00Z TUE. WILL HAVE CHC POPS LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR IN NE PA AND SC NY.
BULK OF PRECIP ARRIVES MON NGT FROM SRN U.S UPR LVL LOW AND ASSCTD
ISEN LIFTG. THE PRECIP SHUD CONT INTO TUE AM UNTIL UPR LVL WAVE AND
TROF AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE E BY 18Z TUE. QPF AMNTS ARE NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM...GFS AND EURO. MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR ARND .25 INCHES TOTAL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST ARND
.25 INCHES AS WELL MAINLY FROM NE PA TO THE CATSKILLS. IN ANY
EVENT...A MINOR PRECIP EVENT SO NO ISSUES AT ALL IN THE REALM OF
FLOODING.
AFTER THIS UPR LVL TROF AND ASSCTD PV LOBE SHIFTS OFF TO THE E TUE
PM...RDGING FROM SFC THRU 500 MB BUILDS IN AHEAD OF NEXT MORE
SIGNIFICANT NRN BRANCH SYSTEM. THIS RDG WILL KEEP DRY AND FAIRLY
MILD WX IN PLACE TUE PM INTO ERLY WED. NEXT CHC FOR SOME PRECIP CUD
COME AS ERLY AS WED PM IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. THE GFS SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL WAVE MOVG INTO THE ERN LAKES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER UPR LVL TROF ENCOMPASSING THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. A LOBE
OF HIGHER PV AND ASSCTD COOLING AT MID-LVL/S ROTATES OUT INTO NY AND
PA BTWN 18Z WED AND 00Z THU STEEPING LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND
700 MB. THIS TRIGGERS SOME LIGHT SHRA FOR C NY AND NE PA WED PM.
THE NAM IS MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NY/PA AND
SLOWER AND HENCE HAS NO QPF FOR WED PM. THE 00Z EURO IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE NAM AS WELL. THE GEFS AND SREF PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
IS IN THE SLGHT CHC TO LO CHC CAT. GUIDC ALSO SUGGESTS SLGHT CHC
TO CHC POPS...HIGHEST IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WILL GO ALONG
WITH PRVS FORECAST BUT DROP POPS IN THE SERN CWA AND RAISE
SLIGHTLY NW. ALSO WILL HAVE MOST OF THE ACVTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST AND THE BOTH SHOW IT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WHAT IS IN STORE. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL SOMEWHAT. THEN
ON THURSDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE OVER THE
REGION. SINCE IT IS STILL FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT REMOVE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT MAY AMEND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS IF IT
IS PERSISTENT IN THE MODELS.
AFTER THANKSGIVING...IT BECOMES INTERESTING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON HOW FAR THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...WHICH IS NORMAL AND EXPECTED FROM THE MODEL...SO WILL
PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF SLOWING IT DOWN SOME. BOTH MODEL DO
SHOW THE LOW TO CONTAIN COLD AIR...COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO MIXED PRECIP...TO EVEN SOME SNOW. THE MAIN CHANGE OVER
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. THE 1000-500 THICKNESS DROPS BELOW
540 DM FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE ECMWF. AGAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THIS. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY. IT IS REALLY TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE AN ESTIMATE OF LIQUID
PRECIP ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RECENT TRENDS AS DEPICTED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE OVERLYING CLOUD COVER ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF
CENTRAL NY AS OF 17Z. CONCERN FOR AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LOW CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET. FOR
NOW FEEL MOST LOCATIONS WILL RAISE ABOVE MVFR RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN EVENTUAL LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO COOL. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. LOW
CLOUDS /POSSIBLY IFR/ WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221818
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
118 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY CENTERS AROUND STRATOCU MAINLY OVER ORANGE
COUNTY...WHICH FILLED IN VIA DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING THIS MORNING.
EASTERN EDGE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS MIXING DEEPENS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEWART AIRPORT INDICATE THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL TREND BACK TOWARD PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY. STRATOCU JUST SE OF THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND MAY REACH THE
SOUTH SHORE...BUT MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS AS HEATING OVER LAND
PREVENTS MUCH OF AN INLAND PUSH. OKX MORNING SOUNDING AND FORECAST
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE...WITH MAINLY MID 50S...
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S IN URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND PARTS OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THIS EVENING. THICK ST/SC DECK OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS INCHING
WESTWARD. TENDRELS OF ST ALSO DEVELOPING OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND.
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 21Z...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SAT TRENDS TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND INCLUDE IN TAFS.
ONCE CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY FROM 350 TO 060 THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY ...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 15Z...BUOY 44025 HAD 4-FT SEAS WITH A STEADY 2.3-FT SWELL...AND
NE WINDS AROUND 17 KT. WIND SPEEDS/FETCH SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...SO THINK
5-FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM THERE
EAST...SO HAVE RAISED SCA A LITTLE SOONER E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO
8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN E OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET...AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A WITH GALE WATCH...BUT WILL MENTION
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH
THAT NOT AS CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS
MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE.
WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS TUE
NIGHT...OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS
INTO THU.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WED INTO THU...WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. QPF OF 1/2 NORTH/WEST TO 1 INCH
SOUTH/EAST IS POSSIBLE FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES OF 2.0-2.5 FT AND 2.5-3.0 FT ARE NEEDED FOR THE
HIGHER/LOWER HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MON/TUE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1.0 FT...
BUT IS BASED ON A TRACK THAT BOTH FASTER AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA
THAN CURRENT THINKING. EVEN SO...A SLOWER/CLOSER LOW TRACK MAY
STILL NOT PRODUCE DEPARTURES LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL
FLOODING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...BG/PFM
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBTV 221813
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM EST SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST FCST TOWARDS LATEST SKY COVER TRENDS.
REALITY CHECK THIS MORNING THAT YES...HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IS OFTEN THE NORM AND NOT THE EXCEPTION THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXAMINATION OF VIS SAT SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH AND ONLY SLOWLY
BURN OFF AS LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK INSOLATION WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX
OUT LOWER LEVELS. COMPOUNDING THE CLEARING ISSUE IS WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH 12Z ALB SOUNDING AND CURRENT ACARS DATA
FROM CYUL SHOWING IMPRESSIVE 11F SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 900-850
MB. CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE GIVEN A CAP OF THIS STRENGTH
THOUGH WILL AT LEAST LEAN ON THE SIDE OF OPTIMISM AND LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING PARTIAL CLEARING MOST AREAS BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WITH GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
EASED TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM EARLIER THINKING...MAINLY IN
THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND OTHER THAN
ABOVE ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM. ENJOY YOUR DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EST SUNDAY...
ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK
UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG
AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/
SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS.
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS
OF TAP FOR THE CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS
MORNING...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING SKIES HAVE
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT...WHILE LOW CLOUDS ARE
HANGING IN FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD TO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AS THESE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING WINDS WILL BE
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10000 FEET. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE AREA WILL AGAIN BE UNDER A LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECTING ANY AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY SEE A STRATUS DECK REFORM OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS AND SOME LOCAL IFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE BECOME
MVFR/VFR BY 16Z MONDAY...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY MVFR ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY
...MAINLY VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
MAINLY IFR IN RAIN ON FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTH UP
THE EAST COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...WGH
000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1237 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...AND
CLOUD COVER EXTENDS FROM THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER WESTWARD
ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA. BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...AND
LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME SLIGHT EROSION SEEN IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND PERHAPS SLOWLY BUILDING WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN LIKELY FROM PSF TO AQW AND DDH...RIGHT ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE
REGION TOWARD AND THROUGH THE EVENING...SO ACKNOWLEDGING SOME
BETTER EROSION TO THE CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET. NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WAS EXPANDED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.
PREV AFD BELOW...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.
MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD. WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.
THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).
WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.
THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.
IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE
CLEARING LINE TRENDING TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED
BY 22-23Z AT KGFL AND KALB...BUT BECOME SCATTERED AT POU BY 19Z.
ONCE THE CLOUDS HAVE ERODED...THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NO CEILING. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE BORDERLINE
OFR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...NEXT TAF ISSUANCE WILL HAVE MORE DATA TO EVALUATE THE
FOG POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE ENHANCED IN TAFS FOR
TONIGHT..STAY TUNED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST...AT
10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE...AND CLOUDS WILL
REFORM AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. SO..BETWEEN
10-14Z...MVFR CEILING WILL DEVELOP AT POU...WHILE VFR CEILING WILL
SPREAD ACROSS KALB AND KGF TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS TOMORROW
MORNING WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST AT 10 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU-FRI...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE THU THROUGH FRI.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...NAS
000
FXUS61 KBGM 221735
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1235 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS...OUR
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...VIS SATL SHOWS A WIDESPREAD ST SHIELD ACRS ALMOST
THE ENTIRE BGM FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR ERN SULLIVAN CO NY. SE
PIKE COUNTY WAS ON THE EDGE AS WELL. REMARKABLY THE VIS SATL WAS
ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME LAST NGT BEFORE SUNSET. KBGM VWP SHOWS A
WEAK NRLY LL FLO SIMILAR TO YSTA. AN UPR LVL HIGH WILL BUILD IN
OVHD THIS AFTERNOON AS LL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS MORE TO THE E-NE OF
NY/PA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LL FLO TO THE E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THIS SHIFT OF THE LL WINDS LIKELY WILL CHANGE THE
DISTRIBUTION OF THE ST LAYER IN SERN NY AND NE PA. BELIEVE SOME
CLRG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN UNDER CLD CVR. I DON/T SEE THE CLDS BREAKING UP AS THE
LARGER SCALE SUBSDC IS NOT REACHING DOWN LOW ENUF TO OVERCOME THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HENCE CLDS WILL REMAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER
MAXES.
PRVS DSCN...
AS OF 238 AM...THE FORECAST TODAY IS ALL ABOUT THE CLOUDS AND
WHEN TO MOVE THEM OUT. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR HAZLETON NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONTICELLO. THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN PLACE NOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH NO MECHANISM IN PLACE TO SCOUR
THEM OUT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED AT NORWICH AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH 14Z. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DENSE WITH THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY UP THROUGH EASTERN PIKE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE GEM REGIONAL SKY GRID IS DOING A GREAT JOB
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH NOON. AFTER THAT
TIME...ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE GET SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. THIS WILL BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS DUE TO THE LOW SUN
ANGLE AND VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. WILL WORD THE FORECAST CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AFTER THAT TIME. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR THE FASTEST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND SLOWEST IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. NAM 925 TEMPS YESTERDAY NAILED THE FORECAST
HIGH AND WILL USE THESE FOR HIGHS TODAY. 925S AROUND RANGE FROM 1C
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO 4C AT KAVP. THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WYOMING
VALLEY OF PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING VS. YESTERDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP AND OFF
THE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY ACROSS NEPA.
THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST SOLUTION BUT OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 0Z GEM/NAM/GFS. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT I
WENT WITH THE NAM DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST AND THE BOTH SHOW IT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WHAT IS IN STORE. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL SOMEWHAT. THEN
ON THURSDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE OVER THE
REGION. SINCE IT IS STILL FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT REMOVE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT MAY AMEND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS IF IT
IS PERSISTENT IN THE MODELS.
AFTER THANKSGIVING...IT BECOMES INTERESTING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON HOW FAR THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...WHICH IS NORMAL AND EXPECTED FROM THE MODEL...SO WILL
PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF SLOWING IT DOWN SOME. BOTH MODEL DO
SHOW THE LOW TO CONTAIN COLD AIR...COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO MIXED PRECIP...TO EVEN SOME SNOW. THE MAIN CHANGE OVER
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. THE 1000-500 THICKNESS DROPS BELOW
540 DM FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE ECMWF. AGAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THIS. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY. IT IS REALLY TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE AN ESTIMATE OF LIQUID
PRECIP ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RECENT TRENDS AS DEPICTED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT PERIODIC BREAKS IN THE OVERLYING CLOUD COVER ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION OF
CENTRAL NY AS OF 17Z. CONCERN FOR AFTERNOON UPDATE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LOW CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT AFTER SUNSET. FOR
NOW FEEL MOST LOCATIONS WILL RAISE ABOVE MVFR RESTRICTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN EVENTUAL LOWERING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO COOL. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. LOW
CLOUDS /POSSIBLY IFR/ WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...EMH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KBUF 221721
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1221 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
SUNNY MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK AS A
STRONG LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ERODE ACROSS OUR REGION
AT MIDDAY...WITH AREAS OVER BOTH LAKES CLEAR...AND ALSO AREAS
FROM BUF TO SOUTHWEST...WHILE CLOUDS HOLDING FIRMER IN UPSLOPE
AREAS OF FINGER LAKES AND ALSO E OF LK ONTARIO. SOME STRATUS
REFORMING BTWN BUF AND ROC WHERE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO
RISE TOO FAST AGAINST THE COLDER WEDGE OF AIR IN 900 MB
RANGE RESULTING IN INCREASING INSTABILITY...BUT ALL IN ALL...WE
WILL CONTINUE A CLEARING TREND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
REACH L-M 50S WHERE SKIES ARE SUNNIEST OVER FAR WESTERN AREAS.
ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE UPDATES ALONG WITH AFM/PFM
PRODUCTS..BUT NO NEED FOR CHANGES IN ZFPS.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD
SEE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY HAVING MIXED OUT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH MID
30S CLOSER TO THE LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OF RECENT DAYS IS FINALLY MIXED OUT AND DISSIPATED.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
BACK NORTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT
MUCH RETURN FLOW AND HOLD 925MB TEMPS AT AROUND +4C. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT.
LAST NIGHT...THE GFS WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL BRINGING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP UP WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. NOW IT APPEARS THE OUTLIER MODEL WAS
CORRECT...WITH THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST COAST AND SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT TO SEA. A SECOND WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE UP ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A SURGE OF
HIGHER THETA-E CONTENT AIR WITH IT.
WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH IMPLIED
LIFT FROM THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT QPF TO BE MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS. STILL...WILL NEED TO
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DO RISE SOME TO +6C ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL
BE OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND
GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD WITH 850MB TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO...DEPENDING ON WHICH PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION IS
CHOSEN. THIS SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIQUID WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING. BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF
SUGGEST THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE TROUGH
RE-LOADS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THANKSGIVING. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...THE HOLIDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT LOWER TO LOW CHANCE.
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. IN A GENERAL
SENSE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS HOWEVER. THE LATEST 00Z/22 GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A
MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS FARTHER WEST AND INLAND. BOTH OF
THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL OR EASTERN NY WITH SOME LIMITED
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THIS COASTAL LOW ONLY RECENTLY
APPEARED ON THE SCENE OF POSSIBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND SHOULD BE
TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS LONG TIME RANGE. FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH LOTS OF
TIME TO INTRODUCE DETAILS LATER. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER THE
LAST OF THE STRATUS MIXES OUT BY 21Z OR SO. FOG TONIGHT SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LAKES TODAY WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EASTERLIES
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE SOME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SFM/TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221613
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PROBLEM OF THE DAY CENTERS AROUND STRATOCU MAINLY OVER ORANGE
COUNTY...WHICH FILLED IN VIA DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING THIS MORNING.
EASTERN EDGE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS MIXING DEEPENS...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR STEWART AIRPORT INDICATE THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL TREND BACK TOWARD PARTLY/MOSTLY
SUNNY. STRATOCU JUST SE OF THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND MAY REACH THE
SOUTH SHORE...BUT MAKE LITTLE INLAND PROGRESS AS HEATING OVER LAND
PREVENTS MUCH OF AN INLAND PUSH. OKX MORNING SOUNDING AND FORECAST
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE...WITH MAINLY MID 50S...
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 50S IN URBAN NORTHEAST NJ AND PARTS OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SKC..EXCEPT FOR A PESKY PATCH OF ST
AT ABOUT 2500 AGL. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WOULD MOVE THROUGH
JFK/LGA AT ABOUT 17Z. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IT IS
BREAKING UP...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE 15Z TAF UPDATE FOR NOW.
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE 15Z UPDATE...BASED ON CENTER FIELD
WIND REPORTS FROM KEWR.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
AT 15Z...BUOY 44025 HAD 4-FT SEAS WITH A STEADY 2.3-FT SWELL...AND
NE WINDS AROUND 17 KT. WIND SPEEDS/FETCH SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...SO THINK
5-FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM THERE
EAST...SO HAVE RAISED SCA A LITTLE SOONER E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO
8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL LOW...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN E OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET...AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO A WITH GALE WATCH...BUT WILL MENTION
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MON NIGHT. STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH
THAT NOT AS CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS
MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE.
WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS TUE
NIGHT...OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS
INTO THU.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WED INTO THU...WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIALLY STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. QPF OF 1/2 NORTH/WEST TO 1 INCH
SOUTH/EAST IS POSSIBLE FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THU AND FRI. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DEPARTURES OF 2.0-2.5 FT AND 2.5-3.0 FT ARE NEEDED FOR THE
HIGHER/LOWER HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MON/TUE TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1.0 FT...
BUT IS BASED ON A TRACK THAT BOTH FASTER AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA
THAN CURRENT THINKING. EVEN SO...A SLOWER/CLOSER LOW TRACK MAY
STILL NOT PRODUCE DEPARTURES LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE COASTAL
FLOODING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KALY 221543
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1043 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE IS CONTINUING TO BE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...AND
CLOUD COVER EXTENDS FROM THE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER WESTWARD
ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA. BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...AND
LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD
PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME SLIGHT EROSION SEEN IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND PERHAPS SLOWLY BUILDING WEST DURING THE DAY...BUT MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN LIKELY FROM PSF TO AQW AND DDH...RIGHT ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. SOME DEEPER SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE
REGION TOWARD AND THROUGH THE EVENING...SO ACKNOWLEDGING SOME
BETTER EROSION TO THE CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SO...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
HUDSON VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR AROUND SUNSET. NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH
WAS EXPANDED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNTOUCHED.
PREV AFD BELOW...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.
MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD. WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.
THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).
WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.
THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.
IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB. WE EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING/ERODING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BENEATH THIS DECK...ESP AT KGFL...PRIOR TO 15Z...AND HAVE
INDICATED A TEMPO AT KGFL DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD...UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER 08Z/MON. WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPOU...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME RANGE TO KEEP LOW MVFR AT KPOU.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 5-10 KT TODAY.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221528
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1028 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH. AREA OF STRATO CU JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOT MAKING ANY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE SUNSHINE...EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SKC..EXCEPT FOR A PESKY PATCH OF ST
AT ABOUT 2500 AGL. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WOULD MOVE THROUGH
JFK/LGA AT ABOUT 17Z. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IT IS
BREAKING UP...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE 15Z TAF UPDATE FOR NOW.
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE 15Z UPDATE...BASED ON CENTER FIELD
WIND REPORTS FROM KEWR.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY PM...SUB-VFR...PDS OF IFR LIKELY. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN (STRONGEST FURTHER S FROM LONG ISLAND
(FURTHEST FROM CENTER OF HIGH).
EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF COASTAL LOW THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES (AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA)...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
GALE WATCH...BUT AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
(STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH THAT NOT AS
CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS MONDAY NIGHT).
THE STRONG NE WINDS (POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER EASTERN
TWO COASTAL OCEAN ZONES (AND A CHANCE FOR EVEN GREATER COVERAGE)
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT...THE SEAS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES WILL
NOT. THESE SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A HALF INCH...NORTH AND WEST...TO ONE
INCH...SOUTHEAST...IS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT COASTAL FLOODING GUIDANCE WOULD NOT SUGGEST ANY FLOOD
THREAT...HOWEVER IT IS BASED ON THE MODEL THAT IS FURTHEST OUT TO
SEA AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COASTAL STORM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF
STORM TAKES THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IDEA OF A TRACK THAT IS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL USED TO MAKE THE STORM SURGE
FORECAST...WOULD SEE LARGER DEPARTURES THAN NORMAL THAN GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY-TUESDAY YOU
WOULD NEED DEPARTURES OF 2-2.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES AND 2.5-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDES. CURRENT GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1
FT...SO EVEN A SLOWER/CLOSER TO THE COAST SCENARIO MAY MOT PRODUCE
LARGE ENOUGH DEPARTURES TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...PFM
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBGM 221436
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
936 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS...OUR
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM...VIS SATL SHOWS A WIDESPREAD ST SHIELD ACRS ALMOST
THE ENTIRE BGM FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR ERN SULLIVAN CO NY. SE
PIKE COUNTY WAS ON THE EDGE AS WELL. REMARKABLY THE VIS SATL WAS
ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME LAST NGT BEFORE SUNSET. KBGM VWP SHOWS A
WEAK NRLY LL FLO SIMILAR TO YSTA. AN UPR LVL HIGH WILL BUILD IN
OVHD THIS AFTERNOON AS LL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS MORE TO THE E-NE OF
NY/PA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LL FLO TO THE E AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THIS SHIFT OF THE LL WINDS LIKELY WILL CHANGE THE
DISTIBUTION OF THE ST LAYER IN SERN NY AND NE PA. BELIEVE SOME
CLRG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN UNDER CLD CVR. I DON/T SEE THE CLDS BREAKING UP AS THE
LARGER SCALE SUBSDC IS NOT REACHING DOWN LOW ENUF TO OVERCOME THE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. HENCE CLDS WILL REMAIN. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER
MAXES.
PRVS DSCN...
AS OF 238 AM...THE FORECAST TODAY IS ALL ABOUT THE CLOUDS AND
WHEN TO MOVE THEM OUT. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF
THE CWA IS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR HAZLETON NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONTICELLO. THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN PLACE NOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH NO MECHANISM IN PLACE TO SCOUR
THEM OUT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED AT NORWICH AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH 14Z. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DENSE WITH THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY UP THROUGH EASTERN PIKE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE GEM REGIONAL SKY GRID IS DOING A GREAT JOB
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH NOON. AFTER THAT
TIME...ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE GET SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. THIS WILL BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS DUE TO THE LOW SUN
ANGLE AND VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. WILL WORD THE FORECAST CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AFTER THAT TIME. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR THE FASTEST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND SLOWEST IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. NAM 925 TEMPS YESTERDAY NAILED THE FORECAST
HIGH AND WILL USE THESE FOR HIGHS TODAY. 925S AROUND RANGE FROM 1C
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO 4C AT KAVP. THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WYOMING
VALLEY OF PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING VS. YESTERDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP AND OFF
THE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY ACROSS NEPA.
THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST SOLUTION BUT OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 0Z GEM/NAM/GFS. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT I
WENT WITH THE NAM DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST AND THE BOTH SHOW IT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WHAT IS IN STORE. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL SOMEWHAT. THEN
ON THURSDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE OVER THE
REGION. SINCE IT IS STILL FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT REMOVE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT MAY AMEND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS IF IT
IS PERSISTENT IN THE MODELS.
AFTER THANKSGIVING...IT BECOMES INTERESTING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON HOW FAR THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...WHICH IS NORMAL AND EXPECTED FROM THE MODEL...SO WILL
PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF SLOWING IT DOWN SOME. BOTH MODEL DO
SHOW THE LOW TO CONTAIN COLD AIR...COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO MIXED PRECIP...TO EVEN SOME SNOW. THE MAIN CHANGE OVER
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. THE 1000-500 THICKNESS DROPS BELOW
540 DM FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE ECMWF. AGAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THIS. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY. IT IS REALLY TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE AN ESTIMATE OF LIQUID
PRECIP ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO WAVER AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE MORNING PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...EMH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KBUF 221428
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
928 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK
AS A STRONG LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...LARGE BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK HAVE DEVELOPED...
MAINLY OVER THE LAKES DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS THE
BEGINNING OF OUR CLEARING TREND...ALTHOUGH WITH STEEP INVERSION
HOLDING AROUND 3.5K FT THIS CLEARING WILL BE SELF DESTRUCT FOR A
COUPLE OF MORE HOURS YET BEFORE FINALLY SETTING IN FOR GOOD IN THE
NOON TO 3 PM PERIOD...WITH THE UPSLOPE AREAS SOUTH OF BUF AND ROC
THE LAST TO CLEAR. WILL THEREFORE TWEAK THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY
AND ADD A COUPLE DEGREES TO THE MAXES PER CURRENT TEMPS. NO OTHER
CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM...WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND MAY ISSUE
ANOTHER UPDATE JUST AFTER NOON.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY MIX OUT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH MID 30S CLOSER TO THE
LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OF RECENT DAYS IS FINALLY MIXED OUT AND DISSIPATED.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
BACK NORTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT
MUCH RETURN FLOW AND HOLD 925MB TEMPS AT AROUND +4C. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT.
LAST NIGHT...THE GFS WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL BRINGING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP UP WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. NOW IT APPEARS THE OUTLIER MODEL WAS
CORRECT...WITH THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST COAST AND SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT TO SEA. A SECOND WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE UP ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A SURGE OF
HIGHER THETA-E CONTENT AIR WITH IT.
WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH IMPLIED
LIFT FROM THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT QPF TO BE MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS. STILL...WILL NEED TO
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DO RISE SOME TO +6C ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL
BE OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND
GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD WITH 850MB TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO...DEPENDING ON WHICH PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION IS
CHOSEN. THIS SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIQUID WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING. BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF
SUGGEST THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE TROUGH
RE-LOADS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THANKSGIVING. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...THE HOLIDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT LOWER TO LOW CHANCE.
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. IN A GENERAL
SENSE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS HOWEVER. THE LATEST 00Z/22 GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A
MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS FARTHER WEST AND INLAND. BOTH OF
THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL OR EASTERN NY WITH SOME LIMITED
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THIS COASTAL LOW ONLY RECENTLY
APPEARED ON THE SCENE OF POSSIBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND SHOULD BE
TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS LONG TIME RANGE. FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH LOTS OF
TIME TO INTRODUCE DETAILS LATER. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DENSE MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL FINALLY ERODE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. ALL
SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 19Z.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EASTERLIES
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE SOME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SFM/TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SFM/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KBTV 221400
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
900 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM EST SUNDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNINGS
PACKAGE...MAINLY TO ADJUST FCST TOWARDS LATEST SKY COVER TRENDS.
REALITY CHECK THIS MORNING THAT YES...HIGH PRESSURE WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IS OFTEN THE NORM AND NOT THE EXCEPTION THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXAMINATION OF VIS SAT SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH AND ONLY SLOWLY
BURN OFF AS LOW SUN ANGLE AND WEAK INSOLATION WILL DO LITTLE TO MIX
OUT LOWER LEVELS. COMPOUNDING THE CLEARING ISSUE IS WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH 12Z ALB SOUNDING AND CURRENT ACARS DATA
FROM CYUL SHOWING IMPRESSIVE 11F SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 900-850
MB. CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO ERODE GIVEN A CAP OF THIS STRENGTH
...THOUGH WILL AT LEAST LEAN ON THE SIDE OF OPTIMISM AND LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING PARTIAL CLEARING MOST AREAS BY THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WITH GIVEN DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...HAVE ALSO
EASED TEMPS BACK A DEGREE OR TWO FROM EARLIER THINKING...MAINLY IN
THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND OTHER THAN
ABOVE ADJUSTMENTS...NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED ATTM. ENJOY YOUR DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 405 AM EST SUNDAY...
ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK
UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG
AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/
SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS.
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS
OF TAP FOR THE CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN
ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM
SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS
MORNING...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS
MORNING BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z WITH MTNS OBSCURED. EXCEPTION
IS IFR THIS MORNING AT KRUT WITH BR...WILL BECOME MVFR BY 14-15Z
AND VFR AFTER 16Z. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 20Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 6KT. LATER
TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z...RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
IN SE VT AND SE DACKS...AIDING IN LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR IN
GREENS AND DACKS.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN THE AM IN SE VT...OTHERWISE
VFR...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WED. DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JMG/JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KBTV 221250
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER
FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/ SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY
LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS OF TAP FOR THE
CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM SFC LOW OFF
THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS MORNING...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS
MORNING BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z WITH MTNS OBSCURED. EXCEPTION
IS IFR THIS MORNING AT KRUT WITH BR...WILL BECOME MVFR BY 14-15Z
AND VFR AFTER 16Z. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 20Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 6KT. LATER
TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z...RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE
IN SE VT AND SE DACKS...AIDING IN LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO MVFR IN
GREENS AND DACKS.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR IN THE AM IN SE VT...OTHERWISE
VFR...THOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR WED. DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 221153
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE SKIES BRIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...THE FORECAST TODAY IS ALL ABOUT THE CLOUDS AND WHEN
TO MOVE THEM OUT. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR HAZLETON NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONTICELLO. THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN PLACE NOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH NO MECHANISM IN PLACE TO SCOUR
THEM OUT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED AT NORWICH AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH 14Z. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DENSE WITH THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY UP THROUGH EASTERN PIKE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE GEM REGIONAL SKY GRID IS DOING A GREAT JOB
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH NOON. AFTER THAT
TIME...ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE GET SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. THIS WILL BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS DUE TO THE LOW SUN
ANGLE AND VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. WILL WORD THE FORECAST CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AFTER THAT TIME. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR THE FASTEST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND SLOWEST IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. NAM 925 TEMPS YESTERDAY NAILED THE FORECAST
HIGH AND WILL USE THESE FOR HIGHS TODAY. 925S AROUND RANGE FROM 1C
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO 4C AT KAVP. THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WYOMING
VALLEY OF PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING VS. YESTERDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP AND OFF
THE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY ACROSS NEPA.
THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST SOLUTION BUT OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 0Z GEM/NAM/GFS. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT I
WENT WITH THE NAM DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST AND THE BOTH SHOW IT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WHAT IS IN STORE. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL SOMEWHAT. THEN
ON THURSDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE OVER THE
REGION. SINCE IT IS STILL FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT REMOVE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT MAY AMEND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS IF IT
IS PERSISTENT IN THE MODELS.
AFTER THANKSGIVING...IT BECOMES INTERESTING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON HOW FAR THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...WHICH IS NORMAL AND EXPECTED FROM THE MODEL...SO WILL
PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF SLOWING IT DOWN SOME. BOTH MODEL DO
SHOW THE LOW TO CONTAIN COLD AIR...COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO MIXED PRECIP...TO EVEN SOME SNOW. THE MAIN CHANGE OVER
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. THE 1000-500 THICKNESS DROPS BELOW
540 DM FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE ECMWF. AGAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THIS. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY. IT IS REALLY TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE AN ESTIMATE OF LIQUID
PRECIP ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO WAVER AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE MORNING PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON.
WIND ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EMH
NEAR TERM...EMH
SHORT TERM...EMH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221137
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH. AREA OF STRATO CU JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOT MAKING ANY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE SUNSHINE...EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SKC WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. PERSISTENT
NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED IFR (MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS AND KSWF).
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NE 5-10 KT THIS MORNING...WITH
DIRECTION VARYING FROM 030-070 THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN (STRONGEST FURTHER S FROM LONG ISLAND
(FURTHEST FROM CENTER OF HIGH).
EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF COASTAL LOW THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES (AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA)...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
GALE WATCH...BUT AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
(STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH THAT NOT AS
CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS MONDAY NIGHT).
THE STRONG NE WINDS (POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER EASTERN
TWO COASTAL OCEAN ZONES (AND A CHANCE FOR EVEN GREATER COVERAGE)
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT...THE SEAS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES WILL
NOT. THESE SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A HALF INCH...NORTH AND WEST...TO ONE
INCH...SOUTHEAST...IS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT COASTAL FLOODING GUIDANCE WOULD NOT SUGGEST ANY FLOOD
THREAT...HOWEVER IT IS BASED ON THE MODEL THAT IS FURTHEST OUT TO
SEA AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COASTAL STORM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF
STORM TAKES THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IDEA OF A TRACK THAT IS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL USED TO MAKE THE STORM SURGE
FORECAST...WOULD SEE LARGER DEPARTURES THAN NORMAL THAN GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY-TUESDAY YOU
WOULD NEED DEPARTURES OF 2-2.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES AND 2.5-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDES. CURRENT GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1
FT...SO EVEN A SLOWER/CLOSER TO THE COAST SCENARIO MAY MOT PRODUCE
LARGE ENOUGH DEPARTURES TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS AND NEAR/SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION/MARINE...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT
000
FXUS61 KALY 221128
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
623 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.
MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD. WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.
THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).
WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.
THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.
IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED AT KGFL AND KALB. WE EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING/ERODING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP BENEATH THIS DECK...ESP AT KGFL...PRIOR TO 15Z...AND HAVE
INDICATED A TEMPO AT KGFL DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A LOW STRATUS DECK MAY ADVECT
NORTHWARD...UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AFTER 08Z/MON. WE HAVE
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY FOR CIGS...TO DEVELOP FROM S TO N
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPOU...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME RANGE TO KEEP LOW MVFR AT KPOU.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE NE TO E AT 5-10 KT TODAY.
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN MON NT-TUE.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBUF 221127
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
627 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK
AS A STRONG LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS
BLANKETING THE REGION. 00Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWING PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 35
HUNDRED FEET. SOME LIMITED POCKETS OF CLEARING WHICH HAVE TRIED TO
DEVELOP HAVE QUICKLY FILLED IN. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
STRATUS DECK AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WE WOULD EXPECT THE
CURRENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EARLY THIS
MORNING AND LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MORNING...EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD GET A BIT WARMER IF MORE
SUNSHINE CAN BE REALIZED SOONER THAN EXPECTED.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY MIX OUT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH MID 30S CLOSER TO THE
LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OF RECENT DAYS IS FINALLY MIXED OUT AND DISSIPATED.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
BACK NORTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT
MUCH RETURN FLOW AND HOLD 925MB TEMPS AT AROUND +4C. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT.
LAST NIGHT...THE GFS WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL BRINGING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP UP WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. NOW IT APPEARS THE OUTLIER MODEL WAS
CORRECT...WITH THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST COAST AND SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT TO SEA. A SECOND WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE UP ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A SURGE OF
HIGHER THETA-E CONTENT AIR WITH IT.
WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH IMPLIED
LIFT FROM THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT QPF TO BE MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS. STILL...WILL NEED TO
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DO RISE SOME TO +6C ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL
BE OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND
GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD WITH 850MB TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO...DEPENDING ON WHICH PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION IS
CHOSEN. THIS SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIQUID WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING. BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF
SUGGEST THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE TROUGH
RE-LOADS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THANKSGIVING. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...THE HOLIDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT LOWER TO LOW CHANCE.
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. IN A GENERAL
SENSE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS HOWEVER. THE LATEST 00Z/22 GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A
MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS FARTHER WEST AND INLAND. BOTH OF
THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL OR EASTERN NY WITH SOME LIMITED
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THIS COASTAL LOW ONLY RECENTLY
APPEARED ON THE SCENE OF POSSIBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND SHOULD BE
TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS LONG TIME RANGE. FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH LOTS OF
TIME TO INTRODUCE DETAILS LATER. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DENSE STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG UNTIL 14Z. MOST CEILIINGS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 3K FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS GRADUALLY MIXES OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING FOR SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EASTERLIES
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE SOME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KOKX 221026
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
526 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES THROUGH MONDAY...THE SLIDE EAST
INTO MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND MONDAY. THE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE SEABOARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE RETREATING TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTH TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH. AREA OF STRATO CU JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA NOT MAKING ANY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL
LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DESPITE SUNSHINE...EASTERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST. CLOUDS BEGIN
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTH.
WITH THAT...AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH...AND INLAND TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL BE LARGE CONTRAST.
MONDAY PRECIPITATION FROM THE COASTAL LOW MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. TUESDAY BEST LIFT STARTS TO SHIFT EAST
AND LOWER POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEANED
TOWARD THE SREF AND NAM. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO LONG ISLAND WITH AREA OF BEST LIFT.
WITH CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL NOT SEE
A LARGE RANGE IN LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING BUILDS BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW
DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF LOWS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK
AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOCUS SHIFTS TO LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
VEER NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TONIGHT IN
NORTHEAST FLOW.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN (STRONGEST FURTHER S FROM LONG ISLAND
(FURTHEST FROM CENTER OF HIGH).
EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ALL WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH WEDGED INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE S. SEAS ON
THE OCEAN ZONES WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT BY MONDAY AS A RESULT OF
STRENGTHENING NE FLOW.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF COASTAL LOW THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES (AND POSSIBLY A LARGER AREA)...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH
GALE WATCH...BUT AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
35 KT AND EXTEND SCA ON COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
(STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON LOW TRACK/STRENGTH THAT NOT AS
CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS MONDAY NIGHT).
THE STRONG NE WINDS (POSSIBLY WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER EASTERN
TWO COASTAL OCEAN ZONES (AND A CHANCE FOR EVEN GREATER COVERAGE)
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE NE. WHILE WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT...THE SEAS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES WILL
NOT. THESE SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH REGION IN
BETWEEN POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A HALF INCH...NORTH AND WEST...TO ONE
INCH...SOUTHEAST...IS POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT COASTAL FLOODING GUIDANCE WOULD NOT SUGGEST ANY FLOOD
THREAT...HOWEVER IT IS BASED ON THE MODEL THAT IS FURTHEST OUT TO
SEA AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE COASTAL STORM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. IF
STORM TAKES THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IDEA OF A TRACK THAT IS CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL USED TO MAKE THE STORM SURGE
FORECAST...WOULD SEE LARGER DEPARTURES THAN NORMAL THAN GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS. FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MONDAY-TUESDAY YOU
WOULD NEED DEPARTURES OF 2-2.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO HIGH TIDES AND 2.5-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDES. CURRENT GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS DEPARTURES OF 0.5-1
FT...SO EVEN A SLOWER/CLOSER TO THE COAST SCENARIO MAY MOT PRODUCE
LARGE ENOUGH DEPARTURES TO CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PFM
MARINE...PFM
HYDROLOGY...MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PFM
000
FXUS61 KBTV 220931
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER
FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/ SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY
LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS OF TAP FOR THE
CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM SFC LOW OFF
THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS MORNING...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 429 AM EST SUNDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COASTAL LOW WILL BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS IN SE VT. ON WEDNESDAY A FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...SPREADING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO
WESTERN NY WED...AND INTO VT WED NIGHT. THE FRONT LINGERS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN WITH SW FLOW MAINTAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS. THE FORECAST GETS INTERESTING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GUIDANCE
DEVELOPS A SFC COASTAL LOW. PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE NOT IN
SYNC...AND THUS HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN
THE VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW INCREASES WITH
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW...BOTH IN DEPTH
OF LOW AND POSITION...SO AM HESITANT TO PLAY UP IMPACTS SINCE WE
ARE STILL ABOUT 5-6 DAYS OUT AND MUCH CAN CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...AMF
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KBTV 220905
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
405 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY ON INTO
MONDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COUPLE OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK...RIGHT
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST. LL CLD COVER
FROM INVERSION WILL BREAK UP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO GO SUNNY/MSUNNY. FG AROUND THE CWA WHERE BREAKS IN CLD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF W/ SUNRISE. WARMING ALOFT AT 850MB
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AT HIR ELEV THAN VALLEY
LOCALES. THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DACKS. RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE TNGT...BUT CLR AND CD CONDITIONS OF TAP FOR THE
CWA. SOME LGT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES TOWARDS
MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. CLD COVER FROM SFC LOW OFF
THE SE COAST MAY FILTER INTO SOUTHERN VT TOWARDS MORNING...BUT NO
PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EST SUNDAY...SFC LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL MV N ON
MONDAY...THEN SHUNTED OUT TO SEA DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE OVER AREA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VT WILL SEE SOME INCR IN CLD COVER FROM
NORTHERN FRINGE OF SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTNOON/EVENING
HRS. MDLS DO DIFFER SOME ON EXTENT OF PUSH N INTO NEW ENG/N
NY...WITH EVEN THE SUGGESTION OF WK UPPER TROUGH ON WEST SIDE OF
RIDGE WORKING INTO N NY. MOISTURE FEED PROBABLE TO ENHANCE THIS
FEATURE FROM E FLOW OF TWO SYSTEMS OFF THE COAST. THINKING THIS
UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT QPF POTENTIAL A BIT OVERDONE BUT WILL
PUT IN SL CHANCE OVERNGT MON AND TAPER OFF TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
LOW FROM THE WEST WILL HAVE ITS LEADING CLD EDGE WORK INTO WESTERN
CWA LATE MONDAY NGT INTO TUES. WK SFC RIDGE MAY REBUILD OVER AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS MON NGT...SO WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
GUIDANCE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW --SW/-RW AS TEMPS DROP...AND ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP TUESDAY TO FALL AS RAIN W/ SFC FLOW BECM MORE
SOUTHERLY W/ APPROACH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KBGM 220848
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
348 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE SKIES BRIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...THE FORECAST TODAY IS ALL ABOUT THE CLOUDS AND WHEN
TO MOVE THEM OUT. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR HAZLETON NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONTICELLO. THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN PLACE NOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH NO MECHANISM IN PLACE TO SCOUR
THEM OUT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED AT NORWICH AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH 14Z. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DENSE WITH THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY UP THROUGH EASTERN PIKE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE GEM REGIONAL SKY GRID IS DOING A GREAT JOB
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH NOON. AFTER THAT
TIME...ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE GET SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. THIS WILL BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS DUE TO THE LOW SUN
ANGLE AND VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. WILL WORD THE FORECAST CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AFTER THAT TIME. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR THE FASTEST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND SLOWEST IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. NAM 925 TEMPS YESTERDAY NAILED THE FORECAST
HIGH AND WILL USE THESE FOR HIGHS TODAY. 925S AROUND RANGE FROM 1C
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO 4C AT KAVP. THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WYOMING
VALLEY OF PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING VS. YESTERDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP AND OFF
THE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY ACROSS NEPA.
THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST SOLUTION BUT OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 0Z GEM/NAM/GFS. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT I
WENT WITH THE NAM DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID WEST AND THE BOTH SHOW IT PROGRESSING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WHAT IS IN STORE. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL SOMEWHAT. THEN
ON THURSDAY MODELS ARE INDICATING A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE OVER THE
REGION. SINCE IT IS STILL FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...DID NOT REMOVE
POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT MAY AMEND FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS IF IT
IS PERSISTENT IN THE MODELS.
AFTER THANKSGIVING...IT BECOMES INTERESTING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON HOW FAR THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE...WHICH IS NORMAL AND EXPECTED FROM THE MODEL...SO WILL
PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF SLOWING IT DOWN SOME. BOTH MODEL DO
SHOW THE LOW TO CONTAIN COLD AIR...COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE FROM
RAIN TO MIXED PRECIP...TO EVEN SOME SNOW. THE MAIN CHANGE OVER
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING. THE 1000-500 THICKNESS DROPS BELOW
540 DM FRIDAY EVENING...IN THE ECMWF. AGAIN...WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THIS. TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE OUT OF THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY. IT IS REALLY TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE AN ESTIMATE OF LIQUID
PRECIP ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO WAVER AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO THROUGH THE
MID MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE CEILINGS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO
INTO IFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBGM...WHERE VLIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A LOW
CLOUD DECK. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE MORNING PERHAPS EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME TAFS SITES MAY SEE SOME REDUCTION IN VIS AS SOME
LIGHT HAZE/MIST DEVELOPS AND HANGS AROUND THE AIRPORTS. NOT
EXPECTING AND SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VIS ATTM.
WIND ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EMH
NEAR TERM...EMH
SHORT TERM...EMH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KALY 220825
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
325 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS
SOUTH OF RGN FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS
CENTERED OVER THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY
THE NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND
SHOWS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE
HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE
FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING
CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE
WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.
MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD. WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.
THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).
WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.
THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.
IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9
IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.
AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
THU...MVFR/IFR...RAIN POSSIBLE LATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.30 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS EVENT SHOULD HAVE MODEST
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KALY 220821
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
321 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... PERIOD
STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN FM
MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH DOMINATES
THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.
MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD. WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE RESULT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF
TWO MAJOR CUT OFFS AND THEIR INTERACTION AND EVENTUAL MERGER. GIVEN
THE LOCATIONS OF THE VORTICITY THAT WILL GIVE RISE TO THIS SCENARIO
(GIVEN AT END OF SHORT TERM)...MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND SUBJECT
TO CHANGE BASED ON THE PHASING TIME...DEGREE...LOCATION AND THEN THE
ULTIMATE SFC RESPONSE.
THERE ARE SOME GENERAL THEMES IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. ONE CUT
OFF OVER THE MID WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. THEY DUMBBELL AROUND EACH OTHER AND MERGE BY THEN END OF
THE WEEK. HWVR POSITIONS RANGE FM CENTERED N OF YUL (GEM)..TO NJ
(GFS) TO OHIO (ECMWF).
WHAT IS MOST CONCRETE AT THIS POINT IS WEDNESDAY THE FIRST 500HPA
CUT OFF MOVES FM MIDWEST INTO GRT LAKES AND PUSHES AN OCCLUDED
FRONT INTO NYS LATE IN THE DAY. THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
SCENARIO WITH THAT CANADIAN ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER WITH PCPN. WILL
KEEP IT DRY IN THE MORNING WITH CHC POPS AFTN AND WED NIGHT.
THE TIMING ISSUES BECOME MORE ACUTE FROM THURSDAY ON. THURSDAY
THE GFS PUTS FCA IN DRY SLOT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
ACROSS FCA. THE GEM/ECM BRING THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH.
IN SUMMARY THE LONG RANGE PERIOD GENERAL THEMES ARE FAIRLY
CLEAR...BUT TIMING IS ALL OVER. OTHER THAN WED WILL LEAVE MUCH OF
THE EARLIER HPC BASED LONG RANGE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS TO
IMPROVE COORDINATION. TO CHANGE IT TO GMOS AT THIS TIME WILL JUST
INCREASE THE FLIP FLOP FACTOR.
&&
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. TRICKY
CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER STRATUS
DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE PATCHY FOG
AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST 11-3.9 IR
SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK TO THE
W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM LINE...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER CLOUD DECK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR CONDITIONS...MOST
LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.
AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBUF 220818
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY MONDAY MORNING. PESKY LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A FEW SUNNY BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AGAIN AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK
AS A STRONG LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS
BLANKETING THE REGION. 00Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWING PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 35
HUNDRED FEET. SOME LIMITED POCKETS OF CLEARING WHICH HAVE TRIED TO
DEVELOP HAVE QUICKLY FILLED IN. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE
STRATUS DECK AND CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...WE WOULD EXPECT THE
CURRENT STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY MIXING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S EARLY THIS
MORNING AND LIKELY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MORNING...EVENTUALLY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH
SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COULD GET A BIT WARMER IF MORE
SUNSHINE CAN BE REALIZED SOONER THAN EXPECTED.
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FINALLY MIX OUT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH MID 30S CLOSER TO THE
LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OF RECENT DAYS IS FINALLY MIXED OUT AND DISSIPATED.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
BACK NORTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVENT
MUCH RETURN FLOW AND HOLD 925MB TEMPS AT AROUND +4C. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT.
LAST NIGHT...THE GFS WAS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL BRINGING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP UP WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. NOW IT APPEARS THE OUTLIER MODEL WAS
CORRECT...WITH THE NAM AND CANADIAN GEM TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST COAST AND SPAWN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING OUT TO SEA. A SECOND WEAKER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE UP ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BRINGING A SURGE OF
HIGHER THETA-E CONTENT AIR WITH IT.
WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH IMPLIED
LIFT FROM THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 900-700MB LAYER WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT QPF TO BE MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM...A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS. STILL...WILL NEED TO
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DO RISE SOME TO +6C ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL
BE OFFSET BY MORE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NOW WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO
ARRIVE LATE WEEK. THE CURRENT PATTERN ACROSS THE NOAM SECTOR
FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST WITH A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE NAO INDEX TO BECOME WEAKLY
NEGATIVE BY THE END OF THE MONTH...WITH THE PNA INDEX TRENDING
POSITIVE. IN THE MEAN...THIS SHOULD YIELD A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER INTO EARLY
DECEMBER WITH A TROUGH FAVORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN SUCH A
PATTERN. THE INDICES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
HOWEVER...SO NO DRAMATIC PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED...RATHER A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND
GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE FIRST LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT NOT OVERLY COLD WITH 850MB TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF ZERO...DEPENDING ON WHICH PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION IS
CHOSEN. THIS SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY
LIQUID WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING. BOTH THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF
SUGGEST THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN THE TROUGH
RE-LOADS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THANKSGIVING. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...THE HOLIDAY MAY BE MAINLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WILL HOLD
ONTO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW BUT LOWER TO LOW CHANCE.
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. IN A GENERAL
SENSE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL CARVE OUT IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THERE HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
DETAILS HOWEVER. THE LATEST 00Z/22 GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A
MAJOR COASTAL LOW...WITH THE GFS FARTHER WEST AND INLAND. BOTH OF
THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL OR EASTERN NY WITH SOME LIMITED
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT AND WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THIS COASTAL LOW ONLY RECENTLY
APPEARED ON THE SCENE OF POSSIBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND SHOULD BE
TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AT THIS LONG TIME RANGE. FOR NOW WILL
SIMPLY KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH LOTS OF
TIME TO INTRODUCE DETAILS LATER. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DENSE STRATUS DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ONCE AGAIN BECOMES MORE SATURATED WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...LOWERING TO A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.
DURING SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MIDDAY AS THE LOW CLOUDINESS/FOG GRADUALLY MIXES OUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PROVIDING FOR SOME GOOD SUBSIDENCE. THAT SAID...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT IS STILL FAIRLY
LOW.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CHC SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EASTERLIES
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE SOME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SFM
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KBGM 220738
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH
MIDDAY BEFORE SKIES BRIGHTEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUR WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY. BEYOND THAT OUR CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE COAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WHICH IS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...THE FORECAST TODAY IS ALL ABOUT THE CLOUDS AND WHEN
TO MOVE THEM OUT. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE
CWA IS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR HAZLETON NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONTICELLO. THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN PLACE NOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH NO MECHANISM IN PLACE TO SCOUR
THEM OUT. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS FORMED AT NORWICH AND AREAS OF FOG
ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH 14Z. THE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
DENSE WITH THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY UP THROUGH EASTERN PIKE
AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES WHERE WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING CLEAR SKIES.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THE GEM REGIONAL SKY GRID IS DOING A GREAT JOB
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS
THINKING MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH NOON. AFTER THAT
TIME...ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM...THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE GET SOME BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. THIS WILL BE A VERY SLOW PROCESS DUE TO THE LOW SUN
ANGLE AND VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR NORTHEAST. WILL WORD THE FORECAST CLOUDY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES AFTER THAT TIME. CLEARING SHOULD
OCCUR THE FASTEST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND SLOWEST IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. NAM 925 TEMPS YESTERDAY NAILED THE FORECAST
HIGH AND WILL USE THESE FOR HIGHS TODAY. 925S AROUND RANGE FROM 1C
FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO 4C AT KAVP. THIS WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WYOMING
VALLEY OF PA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 238 AM...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING VS. YESTERDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING UP AND OFF
THE COAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY ACROSS NEPA.
THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST SOLUTION BUT OVERALL DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 0Z GEM/NAM/GFS. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT I
WENT WITH THE NAM DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY/S MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DURING THIS
PERIOD. HPC FAVORS A ECMWF/ENSEMBLE BLEND AND WILL THUS STRICTLY
FOLLOW THEIR GUIDANCE WITH ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION. THESE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT A DEEP TROF WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL US DURING THE
WEDS-THURS TIME FRAME AND GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE EAST FRI-SAT.
INITIALLY THE TRENDS LOOK A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODELS...AND
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR TUES NIGHT BEFORE ALLOWING CHANCE POPS TO
COVER THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.
CNY/NEPA REMAINS ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY RAIN AS
THE PTYPE. THEN THE AIR LOOKS TO BECOME COLD ENOUGH ON NWLY FLOW FRI
NITE AND SATURDAY FOR POTENTIAL LES. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WE HAVE
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ABOVE GUIDANCE OVER THE LAKE PRONE
VECTORS FROM 270-300 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A A LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST MVFR...AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED
IFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENTS LIKELY AFTER 15Z. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT
KELM/KBGM WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR IFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS
KITH DUE TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF CAYUGA LAKE. FOR THE
TIME BEING...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DESPITE
HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE CLOUD DECK ALREADY IN
PLACE SHOULD LIMIT TO A LARGE DEGREE THE AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED HOWEVER. CLEARING SKIES
AND WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE CONCLUSION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT/MONDAY...VFR.
MON NGT/TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NGT THROUGH WED NGT...VFR.
THURSDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...CMG
000
FXUS61 KALY 220644
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY.
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN MIDWEEK A SERIES OF MUCH
STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE THOUGH THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING. IN
FACT...WHERE SOME BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED...CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
REDEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE ONCE SHALLOW MIXING
DEVELOPS. EVENTUALLY...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR N/E
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESP FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST LONGER...PERHAPS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...FROM THE SW DACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY
INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SHALLOW MIXING...MAINLY
TO 925-950 MB...WE EXPECT MAXES TO BE A BIT COOLER THAN SAT...ESP
GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COLDER START...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING. SO...GENERALLY SIDED CLOSE TO THE COOLER
MET MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY REACHING AROUND 50 WITHIN MUCH OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EXCEPT LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE
WITH 572DM HIGH EVEN AT 500HPA. 500HPA TROF LINGERS SOUTH OF RGN
FM MASON DIXON LINE TO LONG IS NY WHILE IMPRESSIVE SFC HIGH
DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION AND IS CENTERED OVER
THE MARITIMES. WHILE THE DIRTY HIGH PHASE WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION WILL HAVE ENDED EARLY SUNDAY THE NEW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS AND SHOWS MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE OR FOG/STRATUS CREEPING BACK UP THE HUDSON VALLEY EVEN AS
EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WITH ALL THE
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUID KEEPING THE FLOW EAST TO NORTHEAST
BELOW THE INVERSION LAYER...WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NAM IS THE ONLY LESS AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH ADVECTING THIS
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE WHILE THE WRF/GEM/GFS SHOW IT BLO 900HPA.
MUCH LIKE LAST WEEK WHEN THIS SAME SCENARIO OCCURRED CLOUDS SHOULD
BARELY MAKE ALBANY MONDAY MORNING AND THESE MAY ERODE FOR A TIME.
FROM ALB N & W WILL STAY FAIR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TILL BOUNDARY
LEVEL FLOW TURNS SE-S AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH. IN SOUTHEAST
LOOKING AT AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS AND FOG THAT MAY OR MAY NOT
BURN OFF BEFORE THE CLOUDS FROM NEXT SYSTEM OVERSPREAD THOSE
AREAS.
MARINE LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE WEAK TILL 500HPA TROF
THAT WAS LAYING DORMANT ACROSS THE MID ATLC BEGINS MOVES NORTH
INTO OUR REGION MONDAY. MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT BUT
ITS WELL OFFSHORE AND ITS MAIN IMPACT IS TO ENHANCE THE MARINE
LAYER INFLOW. THIS MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL 500HPA
SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND AN INCR CHC
OF -RN AND DZ MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT THE SFC LOW DEPARTS WELL OFFSHORE. 500HPA
RIDGE REBUILDS ALONG THE SEABOARD. WELL TO OUR WEST THE STAGE IS
BEING SET FOR A COMPLEX PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. TUES NT WERE
STUCK WITH MORE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOT MUCH MORE THAN
DRIZZLE AND CLOUDS.
MEANWHILE TUESDAY NIGHT TWO CUTOFFS WILL BE SETTING UP. ONE IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE OTHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. LOOKING
AT THE 1.5PVU SFCS THE ORIGINS OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE THREE
PART. 1) JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA ALASKA PANHANDLE
COAST...2) IN THE FAST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF
HAWAII AND 3) ALONG ALASKA`S BROOKS RANGE. OBVIOUSLY MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE PHASING PROCESS AND THE RESULTANT SFC
WEATHER. MORE IN THIS IN LONG TERM SECTION.
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THERES A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL CONSISTENCY
EXCEPT WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MARINE LAYER INFLOW
MONDAY AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.
ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.
IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.
AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KBTV 220622
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
122 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES WILL
BUILD SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE...OUTSIDE ANY LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER DURING
THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM EST SATURDAY...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT LAYER OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 FT AGL. WHILE
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING HAS OCCURRED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND MUCH OF ERN/SERN VT...OVERCAST CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS...THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. WITH WEAK WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ELIMINATE EXISTING
CLOUDS TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AS SUCH...HAVE
INCREASED CLOUDS FOR SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HRS...WITH A SLOW
DECREASING TREND TOWARD DAYBREAK. FOG MAY BE LIMITED ACROSS NRN NY
OWING TO OVC SKIES...BUT ELSEWHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL
/WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S/ AND SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH LONG MID-NOVEMEBER NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD BY LATE NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 217 PM EST SATURDAY...TRANQUIL AND MILD LATE FALL WEATHER THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ATOP THE NORTHEAST DURING SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME
FRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT FAIR AND DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH A FAIRLY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS. WITH SHALLOW NATURE OF
PBL THIS TIME OF YEAR DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE RATHER UNIFORM...
SLIGHTLY MILDER PERHAPS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SHALLOW PBL
MIXING MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WARMER 925 MB TEMPS ALOFT. NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WITH AT LEAST SOME
RADIATIVE EFFECTS EXPECTED...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS MINS TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT BEGINS TO CREEP INTO THE MODELS
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/WRN ATLANTIC ATTEMPTS TO
CREEP NORTHWARD BENEATH WESTERN EXTENSION OF DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS.
AT THIS TIME BELIEVE ANY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME
REACHING THIS FAR NORTH GIVEN PLACEMENT OF LL RIDGE AXIS...AND WITH
BROAD SUPPORT FROM THIS MORNINGS OP ECMWF RUN AND GFS MEAN
ENSEMBLES HAVE KEPT SENSIBLE CONDS ESSENTIALLY DRY THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
HOWEVER IN UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THUS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN PRIOR COUNTERPARTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST SATURDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...WITH ONE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS SHOW AREA WILL HAVE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXTENDING INTO MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. HAVE GONE
BELOW GMOS POP GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS
FOR WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THANKSGIVING DAY...MODELS SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY...
BUT GENERALLY FEEL THE DAYTIME WILL BE MAINLY DRY. HAVE GONE BELOW
GMOS POPS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS MODEL IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
MODEL IN BRINGING THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED UPPER LOW EASTWARD.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE EAST OF IT...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE
SLOWER ECMWF...AS FEEL THE GFS LOOKE A TAD TOO FAST. WILL MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION RAIN OR SNOW ON FRIDAY...
AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST IT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH ALOFT FOR
SOME RAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT CHANGING TO SNOW LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT. ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS FAIR AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...GENERALLY MVFR CIGS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS TRAPPED A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS. EXCEPTION IS KRUT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR BR FORMATION WITH MVFR VIS BETEEN 07-13Z. EXPECT
CEILINGS AND ANY BR TO SLOWLY THIN AND LIFT AND ALL SITES WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z..WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING CLOUDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR DIMINISHING TO MVFR IN RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/MB
000
FXUS61 KALY 220532
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1232 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST TO START THE
WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES AND OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BUT
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PATCH OF CLOUDS JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE NY/VT/MA STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING
WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE UPDATED GRIDS USING A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...RUC...AND LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. WITH
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH OF ALBANY AND
THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CATSKILLS HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE AREA
OF VALLEY FOG FARTHER SOUTH. ASIDE FROM GLENS FALLS...POUGHKEEPSIE...
AND MONTGOMERY...ALL WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 30S...TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE HANGING IN THE LOW AND MID 40S...EVEN OVER
SOME OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. HAVE UPDATED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF CLOUDS THAT COVER UPSTATE NEW
YORK WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY ALONG WITH ADJACENT PARTS OF PA...
LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE...AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.
***PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...ISSUED AT 245 PM TODAY...***
SURFACE HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND
AN INVERSION AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER. HOWEVER...AREAS IN LEE OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES
AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS HAVE SEEN RELATIVELY LITTLE CLOUD COVER
DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN
GUIDANCE...WITH CLEARING AND DRYING BEGINNING TO WORK SOUTH FROM
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS CLEARING AND DRYING WILL BUILD SOUTH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR WEST THE CLEARING WILL GET...DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ONTARIO. FOR AREAS AROUND AND EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...CLEARING
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AREAS
OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY TO SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR. STILL...BY SUNRISE...
SUGGESTING ALL AREAS WILL CLEAR. WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR
GUIDANCE LEVELS...EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL
CLEARING OCCURS.
UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT TOO DRY...SO LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
NOT BE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
CLEARING...AND MAYBE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE WHERE CLEARING IS MOST
DELAYED. MOST TEMPERATURE BUST POTENTIAL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE
CATSKILLS...WHERE TIMING OF CLEARING IN QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RATHER IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER RGN FOR THIS PERIOD AT SFC AND ALOFT.
THE 500HPA SHORT WAVE AXIS (FM W MD TO CAPE COD) WILL BE EXITING
THE RGN AT START OF THE PERIOD AND TAKING WITH IT MOST OF THE
FORCING THAT RESULTED IN THE CLOUDS THAT WERE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. WRF ALSO SHOWS DRYING AND DRY AIR ADVECTION JUST PRIOR
TO THIS PERIOD. SO SUNDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY WITH ABV NORMAL
TEMPS AND ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL GO QUICKLY.
FOR THE MOST PART WE HAVE MODEL CONSISTENCY (ECMWF/GEM/GFS/NAM)
FOR SYSTEM PLACEMENT AND TIMING THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS
THE NAM NOW PUSHES THREAT OF RAIN INTO SE FCA LATE MONDAY...ABOUT
3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN REST OF THE CROWD. BUT THE CONSENSUS
REMAINS FOR A PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY IN MOST OF THE AREA WITH
JUST CHC POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES. SO THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY IS THE MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES APART SUNDAY...THE MET BEING THE COLD ONE. THIS IN SPITE
OF BOTH MODELS INDICATING SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER (SUNNY..LIGHT
WINDS..UNDER HIGH), AND HAVING ABOUT THE SAME 925 HPA FORECASTED
TEMPS (3-5C)AS WELL. THIS DIFFERENCE IN THE MET/MAV IS REFLECTED
IN THEIR MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PARTICULARLY AROUND MAX TEMP TIME @
18UTC. WHILE THE NEW NAM PHYSICS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETTER SINCE
THE UPGRADE SOMETHING SEEMS SQUIRRELLY IN THE MET TEMPS SUNDAY.
TODAY SO FAR WHERES THERE NO SUN TEMPS ARE STILL MID 40S TO AROUND
50...AND WELL INTO THE 50S WHERE THE SUN IS SHINING. COULD JUST
BLEND THE TWO...BUT GIVEN THE COMPARISON TO TODAY..FCST WILL GO
WITH THE MAV TEMPS
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE LINGERING 500HPA TROF FROM THE MID
ATLC STATES PHASES WITH A TROF LIFTING NE FM GULF COAST STATES. STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE PHASING AND THE SFC RESPONSE...BUT
GFS/ECMWF AND NAM PRODUCE A COASTAL LOW MONDAY NT THAT LIFTS NE.
THE MDL TRACKS ARE STILL QUITE VARIED. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP FCA ON
PERIPHERY OF SYSTEM WITH THREAT OF ONLY LT RN IN SE FCA...THE NAM
A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND FURTHER WEST. BOTTOM LINE WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS MON NT INTO TUES MAINLY IN SE HALF OF FCA.
ONCE THIS FIRST SYSTEM PASSES THERE`S AS MUCH AGREEMENT AS YOU
USUALLY GET IN THE EFP FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BWTN HPC...THE ECMWF THAT JUST CAME IN AND
THE GFS. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC GRIDS FOR EFP.
IT APPEARS THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A GAME CHANGER. AFTER
TUESDAYS WEAK COASTAL DEPARTS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES PHASE INTO A
DEEP AND LARGE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
ANOTHER CUTOFF ORGANIZES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CREATING A
DUMBELLING ACTION AROUND EACH OTHER OVER THE GRTLKS..MIDWEST AND
UPR GRT PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK TILL THEY PHASE INTO A MASSIVE
CUTOFF LOVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO END THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORM
TRACKS WILL PASS TO OUR WEST AT FIRST...WITH THE FINAL ONE A
COASTAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS
WE HEAD INTO THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL AND HOLIDAY PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AND THEIR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NR OR ABOVE NORMAL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN
IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
TRICKY CALL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z/SUN...AS HIGHER
STRATUS DECK AS ERODED...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...AND WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND A SOMEWHAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY PROMOTE
PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LATEST
11-3.9 IR SATELLITE INDICATES PREVIOUS STRATUS DECK EXPANDING BACK
TO THE W...AS WINDS AROUND 925-975 MB VEER INTO THE NE. BOTTOM
LINE...LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE HIGHER
CLOUD DECK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SEVERAL TEMPOS FOR IFR
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY AROUND 12Z...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.
AFTER 12Z/SUN...ANY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR
CIGS...WHICH COULD LAST UNTIL 15Z-17Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TOWARD 06Z/MON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE N TO NE AT LESS THAN 5
KT THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND NE TO E AT 5-10 KT DURING SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NITE...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MON-TUE...VFR-MVFR...CHC OF RAIN.
WED...VFR...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MONDAY RIVERS
WILL CONTINUE RECEDE THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN WILL
BE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS IS FOR 0.10 TO
0.70 INCHES MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. BUT ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE STORM TRACK AND AMOUNTS COULD VARY. THIS EVENT
SHOULD HAVE MODEST IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. FURTHER OUT AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
000
FXUS61 KOKX 220527
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1227 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...AND INTO THE
MARITIMES THOROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE UP COAST
MONDAY...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE TRI-STATE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AS WINDS DIMINISH. THIS COMBINATION
WILL RESULT IN DECENT IF NOT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS TONIGHT. FORECAST LOWS...AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH
THE MID 30S IN SPOTS...SO EARLY MORNING FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. THIS
IS NOT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT DECOUPLING SHOULD
ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AS NE WINDS PICK UP A BIT.
UNDERCUT MOS IN GENERAL IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS ACROSS
ORANGE/PUTNAM COUNTY AND THE PINE BARRENS OF LI. PERSISTENCE AND
MOS VERY CLOSE ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE PASSES NORTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY...ALLOWING
EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE TO INCREASE. ALL IN ALL A DECENT
DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH
EAST WINDS.
TRICKY TEMP FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...AS COLD AIR DAMMING AND LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. THERE
MAY AGAIN BE A PERIOD OF DECOUPLING...THUS FORECAST LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO END UP CLOSE TO TONIGHT`S. THIS PERIOD IS PERHAPS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST OF THE SHORT TERM. IF SURFACE
WINDS STAY UP...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW GET HERE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
FORECAST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A
DIFFUSE COASTAL LOW...BUT THE WIND FIELDS ARE BIT MORE ALIGNED.
PRECIP EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED POP TO LIKELY FOR ABOUT THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON IF THE LOW
CENTER PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO PUT THE AREA IN THE BEST LIFT. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST IN TERMS OF QPF...BUT THE 18Z
RUN HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS 1 TO 1.5 INCH FORECAST EARLIER TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY WRAP AROUND...POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TEMP VARIATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR -RA ENDING. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AS H5 LOW
DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. H3 JET PRODUCES SOME LIFT...BUT
FORCING OTHERWISE IS WEAK AS EVIDENCED BY THE TIME HEIGHTS. WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE...ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A LULL SETTLES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TO LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER H5 LOW DROPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A COMPLEX REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HINT AT LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A SECOND LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALL THOUGH THERE IS A
SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS A SHOT OF RA ON TRACK
DURING THE PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE WIND IF THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE AND A 980 MB LOW OCCLUDES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NORTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT WILL VEER NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. TOWARD
SUNRISE...A FEW TERMINAL SITES COULD SEE SOME RADIATION FOG...MVFR
VISIBILITIES IF WINDS DECOUPLE (KSWF/KGON)...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW
TO MODERATE IN THIS HAPPENING. NYC METRO WILL BE OK DUE TO AMPLE
MIXING/HEAT ISLAND.
OVERALL...VFR TODAY IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES SUNDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST FLOW.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE SUB VFR.
MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-VFR LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOWERING PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THE THE WATERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WILL NOT SEE
25 KTS UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING GALE FORCE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN IMPACT THE WATERS FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM...GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE TO CLOSE THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...PW/BS
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG/JMC
HYDROLOGY...BS
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