000
FXUS61 KALY 082329
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
629 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO CLOUDS ARE WITHIN MANY MILES OF OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COLD AIR INTERACTING
WITH WARMER LAKES AND RIVERS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SHORES OF RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MORNING FOG WILL LIFT...AND THE SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH...BREEZY AT TIMES IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON UPSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AND THE
HIGHS UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INDICATION...WE SHOULD GET A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
70 WARMER SPOTS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH TIMING
FROM GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUING TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES. WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MIX OF
CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...NEAR 50 WARMER SPOTS...AND
AROUND 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME MIX OF CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND
TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENING...AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES JUST
BEGINNING TO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...LOWER TO MID 50S
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO NOT INCLUDING AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. THE QUESTION OF WHEN/IF IDA INTERACTS WITH
UPPER ENERGY TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND WHAT
POTENTIAL STORM OR NO STORM RESULTS. MOST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
EITHER DELAY ANY MERGING...OR KEEP A POTENTIAL STORM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION...SO KEEPING OUR REGION DRY AND CONTINUED DEEP
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES...BUT VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES. AT THIS
POINT...SUGGESTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHAT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL DRY PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THEREFORE
WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TO START THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH
TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF ALSO
INDICATES THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW
INCREASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON/S BAY
TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC
SO FAR OUT INTO THE FCST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.

KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/TUE. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS LATER THIS EVENING...AND OCCASIONALLY
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY DUE TO PATCHY GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME S TO SW AT 5-10 KT
MONDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15-18 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

KALB...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/TUE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE
THIS EVENING...THEN WILL BECOME SE TO S LATER TONIGHT AT LESS THAN 5
KT...AND INCREASING FROM THE S ON MONDAY AT 10-15 KT...WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

KPOU...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/TUE...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC
OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...THEN BECOME S TO SW AT 8-12 KT ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MON NGT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
THAN NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO AFFECT OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SCENARIOS KEEP US
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 082312
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
612 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND PASSES JUST EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. CLEAR SKIES...WITH A MOS BLEND FOLLOWED WITH REGARD TO
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST RESULTING IN DEEP W/SW FLOW. HEIGHTS
RISE AS WAA BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS IMPACT THE REGION.

IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT A WARM DAY MONDAY IN SPITE OF SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING. MODEL FCST PROFILES SUPPORT MOS
NUMBERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

WARMER NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT ON TAP IN RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR EAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES COMMENCE TUE ONWARD TO MUDDY THE OVERALL
PICTURE. HOWEVER OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE AN EXTREME
OUTLIER...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM/UKMET/EC SOLUTIONS THIS TIME
FRAME...CLOSER TO TPC/HPC HANDLING OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. OP GFS AN
OUTLIER AMONG MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS UPPER LEVEL PHASING OCCURS
WITH SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. IN FACT...EVENTUAL POSITION
OF SFC LOW FURTHER NORTH THIS RUN. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHICH STILL
LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON EXACT DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS WITH MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
OBVIOUSLY ASSUMES LITTLE TO NO PHASING AS MENTIONED. WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH TO WARRANT CHANCE
POPS...EVEN THOUGH NAM REMAINS DRY.

WILL CUT POPS OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST.

TEMPS MILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A TAD COOLER THAN MONDAY IN
WEAK CAA. TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN NORTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. THE 00Z/08
AND 12Z/08 ECMWF NOW HAS A LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...NEAR
JACKSONVILLE BY 12/12Z...MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/CMC...BUT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET/NAM.

TPC`S DAY 5 OFFICIAL FORECAST LOOKS MOST LIKE THE EC/NAM/UKMET...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLN CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME. THE EC THEN KEEPS
THE LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
GETTING SWEPT UP IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SINCE THE EC WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL TPC
FORECAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW IT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON MON.
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THU...
MON-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FROPA.
WED-THU...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED EVENING VIA SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INITIALLY...THEN FROM POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW.
INCREASING N-NE WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
AT LEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. IF NAM/EC/UKMET ARE CLOSER
TO EVENTUAL SOLUTION...BORDERLINE SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE SHORT
TERM. THEREAFTER WILL FOLLOW WIND/WAVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
WAVE WATCH III IS DISCOUNTED ALTOGETHER. THE EXACT DETAILS ON HOW
POST TROPICAL LOW TRACKS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT CONSENSUS
SEEMS TO POINT TO A NON GFS SCENARIO...WITH LOW PRESSURE SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH. STAY TUNED.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THU...BUT WITH LARGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT
OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW. SCA`S MORE LIKELY WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. SCA CONDS COULD
CONTINUE FURTHER...BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF IDA`S
REMNANTS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT QPF TUE NIGHT INTO WED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS SWEPT NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 082051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS TRACKED THROUGH THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO CLOUDS ARE WITHIN MANY MILES OF OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DEW POINTS
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COLD AIR INTERACTING
WITH WARMER LAKES AND RIVERS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SHORES OF RIVERS AND LAKES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. LOWS IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY MORNING FOG WILL LIFT...AND THE SKY SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH...BREEZY AT TIMES IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. BASED ON UPSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...AND THE
HIGHS UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INDICATION...WE SHOULD GET A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEAR
70 WARMER SPOTS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH TIMING
FROM GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUING TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES. WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A MIX OF
CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S...NEAR 50 WARMER SPOTS...AND
AROUND 40 IN THE ADIRONDACKS. SOME MIX OF CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND
TUESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENING...AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES JUST
BEGINNING TO COOL. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...LOWER TO MID 50S
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SO NOT INCLUDING AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AT THIS POINT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. THE QUESTION OF WHEN/IF IDA INTERACTS WITH
UPPER ENERGY TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS...AND WHAT
POTENTIAL STORM OR NO STORM RESULTS. MOST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
EITHER DELAY ANY MERGING...OR KEEP A POTENTIAL STORM WELL SOUTH
OF OUR REGION...SO KEEPING OUR REGION DRY AND CONTINUED DEEP
COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES...BUT VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTIES. AT THIS
POINT...SUGGESTING LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING
ON WHAT NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS DO IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL DRY PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS
IN DISAGREEMENT WITH GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF. THEREFORE
WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
TO START THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH
TO OUR SOUTH TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF ALSO
INDICATES THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO REMAIN NEAR FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES HIGH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. LOW
INCREASES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON/S BAY
TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NY. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC
SO FAR OUT INTO THE FCST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
RUNNING AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BASICALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LAND THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER SC ERODED
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.  A WEAK COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH GFL AND ALB AS
OF 1730Z...KICKING NW WINDS UP TO A FEW KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.  THUS THE
BALANCE OF TODAY WILL OFFER AN IDEAL FLYING OPPORTUNITY.

A LAYER OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NE PA MAY CONDENSE INTO
CI AS IT PASSES NEAR POU...OTRW CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN SOME CI/AC ROLLS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.  FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT
GFL...BUT WHETHER IT GETS ALL THE WAY DOWN DOWN TO IFR IS
QUESTIONABLE.  SO...OUTSIDE OF GFL...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MON PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA.  CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY...MAINLY POU.
WED NGT-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
THAN NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO AFFECT OUR REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OTHER SCENARIOS KEEP US
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...NAS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 082045
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND PASSES JUST EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. CLEAR SKIES...WITH A MOS BLEND FOLLOWED WITH REGARD TO
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST RESULTING IN DEEP W/SW FLOW. HEIGHTS
RISE AS WAA BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS IMPACT THE REGION.

IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT A WARM DAY MONDAY IN SPITE OF SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING. MODEL FCST PROFILES SUPPORT MOS
NUMBERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

WARMER NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT ON TAP IN RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
OUR EAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES COMMENCE TUE ONWARD TO MUDDY THE OVERALL
PICTURE. HOWEVER OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE AN EXTREME
OUTLIER...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM/UKMET/EC SOLUTIONS THIS TIME
FRAME...CLOSER TO TPC/HPC HANDLING OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. OP GFS AN
OUTLIER AMONG MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS UPPER LEVEL PHASING OCCURS
WITH SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. IN FACT...EVENTUAL POSITION
OF SFC LOW FURTHER NORTH THIS RUN. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHICH STILL
LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON EXACT DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS WITH MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
OBVIOUSLY ASSUMES LITTLE TO NO PHASING AS MENTIONED. WOULD EXPECT AT
LEAST SOME MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH TO WARRANT CHANCE
POPS...EVEN THOUGH NAM REMAINS DRY.

WILL CUT POPS OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST.

TEMPS MILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A TAD COOLER THAN MONDAY IN
WEAK CAA. TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN NORTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. THE 00Z/08
AND 12Z/08 ECMWF NOW HAS A LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...NEAR
JACKSONVILLE BY 12/12Z...MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/CMC...BUT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET/NAM.

TPC`S DAY 5 OFFICIAL FORECAST LOOKS MOST LIKE THE EC/NAM/UKMET...AND
HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLN CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME. THE EC THEN KEEPS
THE LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
GETTING SWEPT UP IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. SINCE THE EC WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL TPC
FORECAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW IT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. WINDS DECREASE TO CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 21-23Z.
CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW 13-15Z
MON. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...

MON-TUE...VFR.

TUE NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FROPA.

WED-THU...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED EVENING VIA SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INITIALLY...THEN FROM POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW.
INCREASING N-NE WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
AT LEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. IF NAM/EC/UKMET ARE CLOSER
TO EVENTUAL SOLUTION...BORDERLINE SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE SHORT
TERM. THEREAFTER WILL FOLLOW WIND/WAVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT AND WED AS
WAVE WATCH III IS DISCOUNTED ALTOGETHER. THE EXACT DETAILS ON HOW
POST TROPICAL LOW TRACKS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT CONSENSUS
SEEMS TO POINT TO A NON GFS SCENARIO...WITH LOW PRESSURE SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH. STAY TUNED.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THU...BUT WITH LARGE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT
OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW. SCA`S MORE LIKELY WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
NIGHT...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. SCA CONDS COULD
CONTINUE FURTHER...BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF IDA`S
REMNANTS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT QPF TUE NIGHT INTO WED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS SWEPT NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...
MARINE...AL/PW
HYDROLOGY...PW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 082022
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK JUST AS THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM REMAIN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...WEDNESDAY ON INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EST SUNDAY...NICE EVENING ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY AS SFC RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL PROVIDE NEAR CALM CONDITIONS AND CLR SKIES. A
SHIFT TO THE EAST POSSIBLE OVERNGT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCR
WAA...SO WILL GO ABV MDL NUMBERS FOR LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 322 PM EST SUNDAY...RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. CWA WILL CONTINUES TO SEE ABV NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE DAY
AS SSW WINDS KEEP STRONG WAA FLOWING INTO THE AREA 850 TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C WILL TRANSLATE IN SFC HIGHS IN THE 60S. A WEAK SFC
SYSTEM WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF RIDGE MON NGT INTO TUES. THIS WK
FEATURE WILL MV EASTWARD JUST OVER THE BORDER IN QUEBEC...GRAZING
N BORDER ZONES. THIS WILL HAVE LOW QPF DUE TO RIDGE BLOCKING GULF
MOISTURE SO WILL ONLY KEEP SL CHANCE IN FOR -RW FOR HIR
ELEV...MAINLY DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE EFFECTS. RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE CWA FROM THE GREAT LKS REGION FOR TUES/TUES NGT. RETURNS FLOW
OVR CWA DURING THIS TIME FAVORS COOLER TEMPS AS N AND E WINDS WILL
BRING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE IN TURN BY
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BLOCK THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL
REMNANTS AND STALL THEM OFF OF DELMARVA. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
TUES/TUES NGT BUT EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME INCR
MID/HIGH CLDS IF LOW OFF DELMARVA PUSHES CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 PM EST SUNDAY...PREDICTABILITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE EXTENDED
FCST PERIOD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES...WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OR MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT 12Z
NWP GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER CONSISTENCY. MAIN ISSUE
HAS BEEN COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...A SLOW EWD MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SWRN TX...AND NWD MIGRATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THESE FEATURES AND POTENTIAL EXTENT OF
PHASING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH MERGER WILL TAKE PLACE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN
INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUNS - ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS - LEAVING THE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WED-SAT. THIS SFC RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER 12Z
GFS SOLN. HAVE LARGELY FOLLOWED THIS SOLN...KEEPING THE NORTH
COUNTRY DRY WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FOR
SRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DO NOT
FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LONG AS
THESE TRENDS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ANTICIPATED. WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE DURING MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT 14Z
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WITH CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SW SFC WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECMG NW DURING MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND VFR FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING
THE WED THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
LIKELY BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 082007
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
307 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT...SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...SIMPLY PERFECT NOVEMBER DAY CONTINUES WITH FULL
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS HAVE REACHED 70 OR BETTER ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO MANY OF OUR
MESONET SITES. BUF OFFICIALLY HAS REACHED 68...JUST A DEGREE SHY OF
THE 69 DEG RECORD. WINDS ARE STARTING TO TURN NE AS EXPECTED SO
AREAS NR LAKE ONTARIO (INCLUDING ROCH) ARE TURNING COOLER.

ONLY MINOR FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT IS A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH WILL
GROW EAST FROM MICHIGAN AND THEN SHIFT NORTH OF LK ONTARIO BY MONDAY
MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD UP OVER LK HURON WILL GROW EAST TOWARD
TORONTO BUT STAY MAINLY OVER LK ONTARIO AND NORTH...BUT PATCHY ALSO
NEAR CHICAGO THIS AFTERNOON MAY ADVECT INTO OUR AREA IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. ANY REAL LIFT AND DYNAMICS WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST THOUGH SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE CLOUD
ONLY INTO THE 30-40 PCT RANGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH NEAR DAYBREAK. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG IN THE TONIGHT
PERIOD DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDINESS AND A BIT OF WIND TOWARD
MORNING MIXING THINGS UP...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND
EVENING SHIFT WILL MONITOR. TEMPS WILL PLUNGE QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS CLEAR SKIES AND COLD GROUND...THEN LEVEL
OFF AND BEGIN TO RISE TWD MORNING IN WEST.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER BONUS DAY...AND WE
WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD MAXES ONCE AGAIN. WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES
OVER GUIDANCE AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE IN 12-13C RANGE...VS TODAY`S
10C IN WEST AND 6C IN NORTH COUNTRY. WE WILL BE WELL MIXED
TOO...WITH BRISK S-SW FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR. SO SHOULD
SEE WIDESPREAD L70S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST AND M-U 60S
EVEN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS WILL TURN SW (230-240) IN
AFTERNOON THOUGH...SO IMMED BUF AREA WILL HOLD IN 60S...AT LEAST IN
THE CITY...AND WE MAY FALL JUST SHY OF THE 70 DEG RECORD HERE. ROC`S
RECORD IS A TOUGHER 74...BUT WITH NO LAKE COOLING AND DOWNSLOPE SSW
FLOW...IT MAY BE CLOSE. WATERTOWN WILL LIKELY HOLD IN L-M 60S DUE TO
OFF LAKE SW FLOW. ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND
CANADIAN GEM HAVE ALL COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON TAKING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...A MUCH NARROWER POTENTIAL TIME FRAME THAN
SUGGESTED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ALL ARE ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS BOUNDARY BEING RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED AND LACKING
IN TERMS OF UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. WITH THESE CONSIDERATIONS IN
MIND...WILL BE SCALING BACK ON BOTH THE DURATION AND PROBABILITY OF
ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A 6-9 HOUR
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS INDICATED FOR MOST LOCATIONS BETWEEN
MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.

THEREAFTER...ALL THE GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
REMAINS OF "IDA" LIFT NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT ON
WHERE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WILL ULTIMATELY COME TO A HALT.

OF THE MODELS...THE 12Z NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING
THIS FEATURE SOUTHWARD...SHOVING IT TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY
TUESDAY EVENING AND THE VIRGINIAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. SUCH A
PATTERN WOULD KEEP ANY OF THE MOISTURE AND REMAINS OF IDA WELL TO
OUR SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR A DRY AND QUIET REST OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE OPPOSITE EXTREME IS THE 12Z GFS...WHICH STALLS OUT THE
BOUNDARY JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THEN KEEPS IT ROUGHLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS IDA`S REMNANT LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE VIRGINIA
COASTLINE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE FORM OF CLOUD COVER...THOUGH THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP WOULD STILL
BE LIKELY TO REMAIN A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE 12Z GEM
GLOBAL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THOUGH A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE POSITION ADVERTISED ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WILL OPT TO CONTINUE WITH A GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...THOUGH WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. OUT OF CONSIDERATION FOR THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC GFS...POPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH CHANCE VALUES KEPT JUST A
LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE TIME BEING. DEPENDING UPON HOW
THINGS ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT...THIS APPROACH WILL GIVE SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WITH THE NECESSARY WIGGLE ROOM TO UP POPS UP OR DOWN AS
NEEDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING ONLY TO AROUND 0C OR SO BEHIND MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE AIRMASS CHANGE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL NOT BE THAT DRAMATIC...WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING
BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE
THAT RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT ALL LEVELS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING REMAINS OF "IDA" OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
AND IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND FAIRLY SUNNY WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THIS RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY INTACT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ...BEFORE SLIPPING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLATTENING A BIT
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST
ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SWINGS A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THE
RIDGE TO HOLD STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ANOTHER NICE DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
APPROACHES AND BRINGS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR CLEAR
SKIES EARLY THIS EVENING TO MIX WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO OUR WEST. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF
PATCHY FOG LATER THIS EVENING BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL
SLIDE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK LOW
PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND SWINGS ITS ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIGHT EASTERLIES WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND FRESHEN LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY...
WITH MODEST NORTHERLIES THEN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE YOUR RECORD MAXES FOR MONDAY NOVEMBER 9...
.BUFFALO.... 70 (1891)
.ROCHESTER.. 74 (1999)
.WATERTOWN.. 68 (1999)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...SFM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 082000
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
300 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY
BRING MAONLY CLEAR AND MILD CONDITIONS. LATE ON TUESDAY...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND BRING A CHANC OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...

HGTS CONT TO BLD THIS AFTN AND INTO TNGT WITH A LRG AND DRY HIPRES
SYSTEM. XPCT CONTD CLR CONDS OVRNGT WITH A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS BY
MRNG AS THE LGT WINDS ALLOW THE COLD AIR TO POOL IN THE VLYS.
WITH THE LEAVES OFF THE TREES FOG THREAT IS LOW DESPITE THE CALM
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

COLD FNT PASSES LATE TUE AND HELPS KEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IDA TO THE SOUTH. OPERATIONAL GFS STANDS ALONE IN BRINGING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH A COASTAL LOW...EVEN ALL THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FURTHER EAST. LATEST ECMWF RUN IS ALSO
TRENDING DRIER WITH THE FNT...MAINLY A DRY PASSAGE...AND KEEPS
REMNANTS OF IDA WELL SOUTH AND EAST. ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TO GO
COMPLETELY DRY WITH THE SHORT TERM FCST BUT IN THE END DECIDED TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUE AND TUE NGT WITH THE FNTL PASSAGE.
ULTIMATELY...IT MAY END UP BEING NEARLY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN HAS LTL SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...WITH OTHER OPERATIONAL MDLS SUGGESTING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE MID-WEEK TROF. THEREFORE STAYED WITH CONSISTENCY AND
FOLLOWED HPC CLOSELY. HIGH PRES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES XPCTD
FOR MUCH OF THE MED RNG AFTER TUESDAY`S FROPA. NXT FNT SHUD HOLD
OFF UNTIL NXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THRU 18Z MONDAY WITH SKC THIS AFTN...TRANSITIONING
TO BKN250 BY MON AFTN. WINDS L&V OR LGT SELY TNGT...BECMG SW 10-15
KTS MON MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THRU FRI...BRIEF MVFR PSBL TUE NGT WITH FROPA...OTRW VFR
XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE PD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081944
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
244 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EST SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST
CLD COVER WORDING AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY. LATEST VIS SAT PIC
SHOWS CLD COVER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
SO REWORDED TO HAVE SUNNY SKIES VERSUS MSUNNY. W/ LACK OF CLD
COVER TEMPS HAVE SHOT UP VERY QUICKLY W/ SOME SPOTS GOING ABV
ALREADY FORECASTED NUMBERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED FOR ALL ZONES TO HAVE
AROUND 60F/LOW 60S. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 242 PM EST SUNDAY...PREDICTABILITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE EXTENDED
FCST PERIOD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES...WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OR MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT 12Z
NWP GUIDANCE SUITE IS SHOWING A BIT BETTER CONSISTENCY. MAIN ISSUE
HAS BEEN COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...A SLOW EWD MOVING CLOSED LOW
ACROSS SWRN TX...AND NWD MIGRATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THESE FEATURES AND POTENTIAL EXTENT OF
PHASING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THE TROUGH MERGER WILL TAKE PLACE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN
INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUNS - ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS - LEAVING THE SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WED-SAT. THIS SFC RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER 12Z
GFS SOLN. HAVE LARGELY FOLLOWED THIS SOLN...KEEPING THE NORTH
COUNTRY DRY WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FOR
SRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DO NOT
FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY AS LONG AS
THESE TRENDS HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...ESPECIALLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ANTICIPATED. WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE DURING MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT 14Z
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WITH CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SW SFC WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECMG NW DURING MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND VFR FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING
THE WED THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
LIKELY BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KALY 081753
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1252 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM...SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...OTHERWISE SKC.  A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS COMES ACROSS FOR A
TRANQUIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MAIN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST
WAS TO MATCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).

THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT  THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.

BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.

THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BASICALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE LAND THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER SC ERODED
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.  A WEAK COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH GFL AND ALB AS
OF 1730Z...KICKING NW WINDS UP TO A FEW KNOTS...BUT THIS WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.  THUS THE
BALANCE OF TODAY WILL OFFER AN IDEAL FLYING OPPORTUNITY.

A LAYER OF HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS NE PA MAY CONDENSE INTO
CI AS IT PASSES NEAR POU...OTRW CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
LATER ON TONIGHT WHEN SOME CI/AC ROLLS IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.  FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT
GFL...BUT WHETHER IT GETS ALL THE WAY DOWN DOWN TO IFR IS
QUESTIONABLE.  SO...OUTSIDE OF GFL...WE ARE LOOKING AT VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MON PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA.  CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY...MAINLY POU.
WED NGT-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081749
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EST SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST
CLD COVER WORDING AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY. LATEST VIS SAT PIC
SHOWS CLD COVER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
SO REWORDED TO HAVE SUNNY SKIES VERSUS MSUNNY. W/ LACK OF CLD
COVER TEMPS HAVE SHOT UP VERY QUICKLY W/ SOME SPOTS GOING ABV
ALREADY FORECASTED NUMBERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED FOR ALL ZONES TO HAVE
AROUND 60F/LOW 60S. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT
THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER PHASING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWRD ACROSS
GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GULF STATES TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BECOME ASSOCD WITH HURRICANE IDA. PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE FROM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GRTLKS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IF ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...THESE POPS WOULD NEED TO BE
RAISED AS EVENT NEARS). AS COLDER AIR IN LLVLS IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHRTWVS THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
WOULD OCCUR TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SFC RIDGE
SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER 12Z MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ANTICIPATED. WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC RIDGE DURING MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING AT SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE AFT 14Z
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WITH CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY.

18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTH TO SW SFC WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECMG NW DURING MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND VFR FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING
THE WED THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...BUT VFR CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR MORE
LIKELY BASED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 081742
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1242 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOK AS THOUGH THE MAY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

BY TUESDAY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL EFFECT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOSTLY RAIN IN THE BEGINNING...TEMPS MAY COOL ENOUGH TO GET
A SNOW/RAIN MIX. MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR...SO MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN HAS LTL SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...WITH OTHER OPERATIONAL MDLS SUGGESTING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE MID-WEEK TROF. THEREFORE STAYED WITH CONSISTENCY AND
FOLLOWED HPC CLOSELY. HIGH PRES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES XPCTD
FOR MUCH OF THE MED RNG AFTER TUESDAY`S FROPA. NXT FNT SHUD HOLD
OFF UNTIL NXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THRU 18Z MONDAY WITH SKC THIS AFTN...TRANSITIONING
TO BKN250 BY MON AFTN. WINDS L&V OR LGT SELY TNGT...BECMG SW 10-15
KTS MON MRNG.

OUTLOOK...
MON NGT THRU FRI...BRIEF MVFR PSBL TUE NGT WITH FROPA...OTRW VFR
XPCTD TO PREVAIL THRU THE PD.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KOKX 081742
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1242 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON TUESDAY
AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT GETS ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES RISING WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON TAP. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY
ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE DEEP-LAYERED WLY FLOW BRINGS WARM
AIR FROM THE NATION/S MID SECTION EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH 85H TEMPS PLUS 10 DEG C MON-TUE. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MIXING UP TO 950 MB...BUT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO ECLIPSE THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN THE LATE TUE INTO WED
TIME FRAME AS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS CLEARLY A
MORE AMPLIFIED TREND NOTED IN THE GLOBALS MODELS OVER THE LAST TWO
CYCLES WHICH IS TAKING THE FORECAST DOWN A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE
FOR THE MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...MAINLY A POST-FRONTAL PCPN EVENT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT STALLS JUST EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
REMNANT LOW OF IDA GETS INFUSED WITH MID LATITUDE ENERGY AND
DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TOO MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY HERE
TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS
WED INTO WED EVE BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS OUT LATE WED NIGHT. THIS
IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS...SO NOT COMPLETELY GOING
TOWARD THE WET...STORMY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF
WHILE WEAKER INITIALLY...CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE MASS FIELDS OF THE
GFS AND IS SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...FUTURE
SOLUTIONS BEAR WATCHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG NE WINDS WED NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. WEAK W-NW FLOW COULD GIVE WAY TO WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AT COASTAL TERMINALS. MAGNITUDE LESS THAN ABOUT 7 OR 8 KT
THROUGHOUT. WINDS DECREASE TO CALM OR VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY 21-23Z. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
13-15Z MON. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...

MON-TUE...VFR.

TUE NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FROPA.

WED-THU...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED EVENING VIA SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INITIALLY...THEN FROM POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW.
INCREASING N-NE WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEREAFTER QUIET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERSISTENT NE
FLOW WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT GALES WED NIGHT- THU...ESPECIALLY IF THE REMNANT
POST-TROPICAL LOW FROM HURRICANE IDA MANAGES TO PHASE WITH MID-
LATITUDE ENERGY AS SOME MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT AND LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBUF 081732
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1232 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE...SIMPLY PERFECT NOVEMBER DAY CONTINUES WITH FULL
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ALREADY IN L-M 60S THROUGHOUT THE
WEST...WITH A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS PUSHING 70. TWEAKED TEMPS A BIT
FURTHER UP WITH MIDDAY UPDATE. WINDS WILL TEND TO TURN NORTHEAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
MICHIGAN SO IT SHOULD TURN A BIT COOLER ALONG LAKE ONTARIO. ALL IN
ALL THOUGH...DOESNT GET ANY BETTER THAN THIS IN NOVEMBER. ADDED A
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW HIGHLIGHTING THE RECORD TEMPS FOR THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. REMAINDER OF PREV DISC FOLLOWS...

TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE
FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WELL THERE/S REALLY NOT MUCH QUESTION THAT MONDAY WILL BE A WARM
DAY...WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE PLACING WESTERN NEW YORK
ON THE WARM SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO HOW WARM WILL IT GET?
WELL MODEL SURFACE TEMPS/SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND...GENERALLY UPPER 60S (MID 60S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY). DEPENDING ON HOW THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER TURNS OUT TO
BE...MAY EVEN WARM A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. RECORDS ARE
LISTED BELOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MID-WEEK...AS MODELS VARY
GREATLY IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOR THE 00Z RUNS...THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM)
ARE LARGELY DRY...WITH THE GFS/UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN
ALL MUCH MORE ACTIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO MODEL IS COMPLETELY THROWN OUT...FEEL TRACK
RECORD OF THE LATTER MODELS IN THIS TIMEFRAME IS BETTER...SO STEER
THE FORECAST A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS CAMP...WHILE NOT BUYING OFF ON
IT COMPLETELY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO DROP TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG THE NOW STALLED
BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERALLY YIELDS HIGH
CHANCE POPS...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES START OFF SO WARM...THAT REALLY THINGS
WILL ONLY BE BROUGHT TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY...AS TO WHETHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REGION...WITH CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARDS A
DRY DAY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 00Z GEM/GFS AND 12Z EUROPEAN THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND TWEAK TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE GFS YIELDING GENERALLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

BOTH GFS/EUROPEAN BRING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS RATHER THAN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FINE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AND
FRESHEN UP DURING MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN ALL...ENTERING AN UNUSUALLY TRANQUIL PERIOD ON THE WATERS. WILL
ALLOW ALL SCA TO EXPIRE ON THE WATERS TODAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE SUBSIDED. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR NEXT TWO DAYS...
.SUN 11/8...BUF 69 (1945)...ROC 74 (1916)...ART 70 (1991)
.MON 11/9...BUF 70 (1891)...ROC 74 (1999)...ART 68 (1999)

&&


.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...SFM/TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...SFM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 081633
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1133 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON TUESDAY
AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT GETS ON
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPERATURES RISING WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ON TAP. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS. A LIGHT W/SW FLOW WILL BECOME LOCALLY
ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE DEEP-LAYERED WLY FLOW BRINGS WARM
AIR FROM THE NATION/S MID SECTION EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH 85H TEMPS PLUS 10 DEG C MON-TUE. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MIXING UP TO 950 MB...BUT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO ECLIPSE THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN THE LATE TUE INTO WED
TIME FRAME AS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS CLEARLY A
MORE AMPLIFIED TREND NOTED IN THE GLOBALS MODELS OVER THE LAST TWO
CYCLES WHICH IS TAKING THE FORECAST DOWN A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE
FOR THE MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...MAINLY A POST-FRONTAL PCPN EVENT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT STALLS JUST EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
REMNANT LOW OF IDA GETS INFUSED WITH MID LATITUDE ENERGY AND
DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TOO MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY HERE
TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS
WED INTO WED EVE BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS OUT LATE WED NIGHT. THIS
IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS...SO NOT COMPLETELY GOING
TOWARD THE WET...STORMY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF
WHILE WEAKER INITIALLY...CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE MASS FIELDS OF THE
GFS AND IS SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...FUTURE
SOLUTIONS BEAR WATCHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG NE WINDS WED NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. WEAK W-NW FLOW TODAY COULD GIVE WAY TO WEAK AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS. MAGNITUDE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGHOUT.
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...

MON-TUE...VFR.

TUE NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FROPA.

WED-THU...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED EVENING VIA SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INITIALLY...THEN FROM POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW.
INCREASING N-NE WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEREAFTER QUIET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERSISTENT NE
FLOW WITH STRONG SCA CONDITIONS FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT.
CANNOT RULE OUT GALES WED NIGHT- THU...ESPECIALLY IF THE REMNANT
POST-TROPICAL LOW FROM HURRICANE IDA MANAGES TO PHASE WITH MID-
LATITUDE ENERGY AS SOME MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT AND LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1040 AM EST SUNDAY...HAVE UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO ADJUST
CLD COVER WORDING AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY. LATEST VIS SAT PIC
SHOWS CLD COVER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED
SO REWORDED TO HAVE SUNNY SKIES VERSUS MSUNNY. W/ LACK OF CLD
COVER TEMPS HAVE SHOT UP VERY QUICKLY W/ SOME SPOTS GOING ABV
ALREADY FORECASTED NUMBERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED FOR ALL ZONES TO HAVE
AROUND 60F/LOW 60S. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT
THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER PHASING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWRD ACROSS
GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GULF STATES TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BECOME ASSOCD WITH HURRICANE IDA. PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE FROM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GRTLKS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IF ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...THESE POPS WOULD NEED TO BE
RAISED AS EVENT NEARS). AS COLDER AIR IN LLVLS IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHRTWVS THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
WOULD OCCUR TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSLK EARLY TODAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT BKN040-050
TILL ABOUT 14Z WITH TEMPO BKN020 AT KSLK...BECOMING SKC AT ALL
TAF SITES BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE S-SW EARLY TODAY...BECOMING
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A CHC
OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A PERIOD OF IFR PSBL TUE NITE WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 081449
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
FRONT GETS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT W/SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE HEELS OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE DEEP-LAYERED WLY FLOW BRINGS WARM
AIR FROM THE NATION/S MID SECTION EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH 85H TEMPS PLUS 10 DEG C MON-TUE. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MIXING UP TO 950 MB...BUT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO ECLIPSE THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN THE LATE TUE INTO WED
TIME FRAME AS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS CLEARLY A
MORE AMPLIFIED TREND NOTED IN THE GLOBALS MODELS OVER THE LAST TWO
CYCLES WHICH IS TAKING THE FORECAST DOWN A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE
FOR THE MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...MAINLY A POST-FRONTAL PCPN EVENT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT STALLS JUST EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
REMNANT LOW OF IDA GETS INFUSED WITH MID LATITUDE ENERGY AND
DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TOO MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY HERE
TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS
WED INTO WED EVE BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS OUT LATE WED NIGHT. THIS
IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS...SO NOT COMPLETELY GOING
TOWARD THE WET...STORMY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF
WHILE WEAKER INITIALLY...CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE MASS FIELDS OF THE
GFS AND IS SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...FUTURE
SOLUTIONS BEAR WATCHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG NE WINDS WED NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. WEAK W-NW FLOW TODAY COULD GIVE WAY TO WEAK AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS. MAGNITUDE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGHOUT.
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...

MON-TUE...VFR.

TUE NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FROPA.

WED-THU...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED EVENING VIA SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INITIALLY...THEN FROM POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW.
INCREASING N-NE WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN SW FLOW 15 TO 20 KT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 4-6 FT...ABOUT
A FOOT OVER WAVEWATCH VALUES. FROM THIS STARTING POINT HAVE
GRADUALLY TRENDED BACK TOWARD WAVEWATCH FORECAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCA REMAINS UP FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING FOR TWO
EASTERN OCEAN ZONES.

QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW THEREAFTER UNTIL THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WITH STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES
WED NIGHT-THU...ESPECIALLY IF THE REMNANT POST-TROPICAL LOW FROM
HURRICANE IDA MANAGES TO PHASE WITH MID-LATITUDE ENERGY AS SOME
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT AND LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBUF 081438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...ALL FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND WE ARE LEFT WILL A
SIMPLY PERFECT NOVEMBER DAY. FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY`S...BUT WE WONT MIX ALL THE WAY UP TO THAT LEVEL (OR DOWN)
DUE TO LOW SUN ANGLE. NONETHELESS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD EACH WELL INTO
THE 60S ACROSS THE WEST AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...SO TWEAKED
MAXES UP A DEG OR TWO. WINDS WILL TEND TO TURN NORTHEAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM MICHIGAN
SO IT SHOULD TURN A BIT COOLER ALONG LAKE ONTARIO. ALL IN ALL
THOUGH...DOESNT GET ANY BETTER THAN THIS IN NOVEMBER. ADDED A
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW HIGHLIGHTING THE RECORD TEMPS FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. REMAINDER OF PREV DISC FOLLOWS...

TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
AS 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE
FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WELL THERE/S REALLY NOT MUCH QUESTION THAT MONDAY WILL BE A WARM
DAY...WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE PLACING WESTERN NEW YORK
ON THE WARM SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO HOW WARM WILL IT GET?
WELL MODEL SURFACE TEMPS/SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND...GENERALLY UPPER 60S (MID 60S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY). DEPENDING ON HOW THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER TURNS OUT TO
BE...MAY EVEN WARM A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. RECORDS ARE
LISTED BELOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MID-WEEK...AS MODELS VARY
GREATLY IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOR THE 00Z RUNS...THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM)
ARE LARGELY DRY...WITH THE GFS/UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN
ALL MUCH MORE ACTIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO MODEL IS COMPLETELY THROWN OUT...FEEL TRACK
RECORD OF THE LATTER MODELS IN THIS TIMEFRAME IS BETTER...SO STEER
THE FORECAST A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS CAMP...WHILE NOT BUYING OFF ON
IT COMPLETELY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO DROP TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG THE NOW STALLED
BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERALLY YIELDS HIGH
CHANCE POPS...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES START OFF SO WARM...THAT REALLY THINGS
WILL ONLY BE BROUGHT TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY...AS TO WHETHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REGION...WITH CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARDS A
DRY DAY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 00Z GEM/GFS AND 12Z EUROPEAN THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND TWEAK TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE GFS YIELDING GENERALLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

BOTH GFS/EUROPEAN BRING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS RATHER THAN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FINE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH LEVELS AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT.

MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN ALL...ENTERING AN UNUSUALLY TRANQUIL PERIOD ON THE WATERS. WILL
ALLOW ALL SCA TO EXPIRE ON THE WATERS TODAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE SUBSIDED. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR NEXT TWO DAYS...
.SUN 11/8...BUF 69 (1945)...ROC 74 (1916)...ART 70 (1991)
.MON 11/9...BUF 70 (1891)...ROC 74 (1999)...ART 68 (1999)

&&


.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...SFM/TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SFM/TJP
MARINE...APFFEL
CLIMATE...SFM

000
FXUS61 KALY 081419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
920 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM...SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...OTHERWISE SKC.  A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS COMES ACROSS FOR A
TRANQUIL AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MAIN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS/FORECAST
WAS TO MATCH DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE AND SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO
THE SKY COVER FORECAST.

AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).

THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT  THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.

BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.

THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED AS OF 1130Z. HAVE
FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KGFL
LATE TONIGHT WHEN MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. OTHERWISE MAINLY P6SM SKC TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS INITIALLY AT KALB...THEN
SHIFT TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED NITE-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY

000
FXUS61 KOKX 081347
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
847 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
FRONT GETS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT W/SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE HEELS OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE DEEP-LAYERED WLY FLOW BRINGS WARM
AIR FROM THE NATION/S MID SECTION EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH 85H TEMPS PLUS 10 DEG C MON-TUE. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MIXING UP TO 950 MB...BUT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO ECLIPSE THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN THE LATE TUE INTO WED
TIME FRAME AS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS CLEARLY A
MORE AMPLIFIED TREND NOTED IN THE GLOBALS MODELS OVER THE LAST TWO
CYCLES WHICH IS TAKING THE FORECAST DOWN A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE
FOR THE MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...MAINLY A POST-FRONTAL PCPN EVENT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT STALLS JUST EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
REMNANT LOW OF IDA GETS INFUSED WITH MID LATITUDE ENERGY AND
DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TOO MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY HERE
TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS
WED INTO WED EVE BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS OUT LATE WED NIGHT. THIS
IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS...SO NOT COMPLETELY GOING
TOWARD THE WET...STORMY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF
WHILE WEAKER INITIALLY...CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE MASS FIELDS OF THE
GFS AND IS SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...FUTURE
SOLUTIONS BEAR WATCHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG NE WINDS WED NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. WEAK W-NW FLOW TODAY COULD GIVE WAY TO WEAK AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A TOUCH OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ABOUT 14Z VIA STRONGER SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
DECK (WS006/24025KT)...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO ITS
MARGINAL NATURE. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...

MON-TUE...VFR.

TUE NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FROPA.

WED-THU...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED EVENING VIA SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INITIALLY...THEN FROM POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW.
INCREASING N-NE WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN SW FLOW 15 TO 20 KT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 4-6 FT...ABOUT
A FOOT OVER WAVEWATCH VALUES. FROM THIS STARTING POINT HAVE
GRADUALLY TRENDED BACK TOWARD WAVEWATCH FORECAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCA REMAINS UP FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS MORNING FOR TWO
EASTERN OCEAN ZONES.

QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW THEREAFTER UNTIL THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WITH STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES
WED NIGHT-THU...ESPECIALLY IF THE REMNANT POST-TROPICAL LOW FROM
HURRICANE IDA MANAGES TO PHASE WITH MID-LATITUDE ENERGY AS SOME
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT AND LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
     FOR ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/PW
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KBUF 081205
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
705 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL STALL ALONG THE NEW YORK/PA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS PARTS OF NIAGARA
AND ERIE COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER FOG FARTHER TO THE EAST AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. BASED
ON THIS...THE WEATHER GRIDS AND TEXT ZFP HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
AFTER THE SHALLOW GROUND FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE OTHER QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHAT IMPACT WILL THE PASSING FRONT
HAVE ON AREA TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND GFS ACTUALLY SHOW 850 MB
MODERATING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ADVECTING
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. STILL...THERE WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS
500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE
FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WELL THERE/S REALLY NOT MUCH QUESTION THAT MONDAY WILL BE A WARM
DAY...WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE PLACING WESTERN NEW YORK
ON THE WARM SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO HOW WARM WILL IT GET?
WELL MODEL SURFACE TEMPS/SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND...GENERALLY UPPER 60S (MID 60S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY). DEPENDING ON HOW THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER TURNS OUT TO
BE...MAY EVEN WARM A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. THE RECORD IN
BUFFALO IS 70...ROCHESTER 74...AND WATERTOWN 68.

MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MID-WEEK...AS MODELS VARY
GREATLY IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOR THE 00Z RUNS...THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM)
ARE LARGELY DRY...WITH THE GFS/UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN
ALL MUCH MORE ACTIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO MODEL IS COMPLETELY THROWN OUT...FEEL TRACK
RECORD OF THE LATTER MODELS IN THIS TIMEFRAME IS BETTER...SO STEER
THE FORECAST A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS CAMP...WHILE NOT BUYING OFF ON
IT COMPLETELY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO DROP TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG THE NOW STALLED
BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERALLY YIELDS HIGH
CHANCE POPS...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES START OFF SO WARM...THAT REALLY THINGS
WILL ONLY BE BROUGHT TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY...AS TO WHETHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REGION...WITH CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARDS A
DRY DAY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 00Z GEM/GFS AND 12Z EUROPEAN THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND TWEAK TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE GFS YIELDING GENERALLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

BOTH GFS/EUROPEAN BRING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS RATHER THAN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG FORMING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER VSBYS
TO LIFR UNTIL ABOUT 13Z VCNTY KIAG/KBUF...WITH MVFR VBSYS EXPECTED
AT KROC AND KART FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING. AFTER THE DENSER FOG
LIFTS BY 14Z...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR...AND WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVELS AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN ALL...ENTERING AN UNUSUALLY TRANQUIL PERIOD ON THE WATERS. WILL
ALLOW ALL SCA TO EXPIRE ON THE WATERS TODAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE SUBSIDED. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...APFFEL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 081157
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
657 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT
THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER PHASING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWRD ACROSS
GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GULF STATES TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BECOME ASSOCD WITH HURRICANE IDA. PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE FROM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GRTLKS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IF ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...THESE POPS WOULD NEED TO BE
RAISED AS EVENT NEARS). AS COLDER AIR IN LLVLS IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHRTWVS THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
WOULD OCCUR TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CIGS AT KSLK EARLY TODAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT BKN040-050
TILL ABOUT 14Z WITH TEMPO BKN020 AT KSLK...BECOMING SKC AT ALL
TAF SITES BY 15Z. WINDS WILL BE S-SW EARLY TODAY...BECOMING
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A CHC
OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A PERIOD OF IFR PSBL TUE NITE WHEN RAIN MAY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 081151
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
651 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL STALL ALONG THE NEW YORK/PA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS HAS ALLOWED
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS PARTS OF NIAGARA
AND ERIE COUNTIES...WITH LIGHTER FOG FARTHER TO THE EAST AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. BASED
ON THIS...THE WEATHER GRIDS AND TEXT ZFP HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
AFTER THE SHALLOW GROUND FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE OTHER QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHAT IMPACT WILL THE PASSING FRONT
HAVE ON AREA TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND GFS ACTUALLY SHOW 850 MB
MODERATING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ADVECTING
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. STILL...THERE WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE
VALLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS
500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE
FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WELL THERE/S REALLY NOT MUCH QUESTION THAT MONDAY WILL BE A WARM
DAY...WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE PLACING WESTERN NEW YORK
ON THE WARM SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO HOW WARM WILL IT GET?
WELL MODEL SURFACE TEMPS/SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND...GENERALLY UPPER 60S (MID 60S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY). DEPENDING ON HOW THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER TURNS OUT TO
BE...MAY EVEN WARM A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. THE RECORD IN
BUFFALO IS 70...ROCHESTER 74...AND WATERTOWN 68.

MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MID-WEEK...AS MODELS VARY
GREATLY IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOR THE 00Z RUNS...THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM)
ARE LARGELY DRY...WITH THE GFS/UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN
ALL MUCH MORE ACTIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO MODEL IS COMPLETELY THROWN OUT...FEEL TRACK
RECORD OF THE LATTER MODELS IN THIS TIMEFRAME IS BETTER...SO STEER
THE FORECAST A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS CAMP...WHILE NOT BUYING OFF ON
IT COMPLETELY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO DROP TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG THE NOW STALLED
BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERALLY YIELDS HIGH
CHANCE POPS...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES START OFF SO WARM...THAT REALLY THINGS
WILL ONLY BE BROUGHT TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY...AS TO WHETHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REGION...WITH CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARDS A
DRY DAY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 00Z GEM/GFS AND 12Z EUROPEAN THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND TWEAK TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE GFS YIELDING GENERALLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

BOTH GFS/EUROPEAN BRING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS RATHER THAN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...IN THE
40-45 KT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT WILL NOT MIX TO THE
SURFACE SO LLWS WILL BE NOTED AT ALL TERMINALS LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS. WE ALSO EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE 3000 FT...WITH SOME
LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SKIES CLEAR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...VFR RESUMES BY
13-14Z...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN ALL...ENTERING AN UNUSUALLY TRANQUIL PERIOD ON THE WATERS. WILL
ALLOW ALL SCA TO EXPIRE ON THE WATERS TODAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE SUBSIDED. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL

000
FXUS61 KALY 081139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).

THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT  THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.

BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.

THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY DISIPATED AS OF 1130Z. HAVE FORECAST
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KGFL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. OTHERWISE MAINLY P6SM SKC TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS INITIALLY AT KALB...THEN
SHIFT TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO
BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED NITE-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KOKX 081137
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
637 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
FRONT GETS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT W/SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE HEELS OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE DEEP-LAYERED WLY FLOW BRINGS WARM
AIR FROM THE NATION/S MID SECTION EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH 85H TEMPS PLUS 10 DEG C MON-TUE. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MIXING UP TO 950 MB...BUT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO ECLIPSE THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN THE LATE TUE INTO WED
TIME FRAME AS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS CLEARLY A
MORE AMPLIFIED TREND NOTED IN THE GLOBALS MODELS OVER THE LAST TWO
CYCLES WHICH IS TAKING THE FORECAST DOWN A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE
FOR THE MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...MAINLY A POST-FRONTAL PCPN EVENT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT STALLS JUST EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
REMNANT LOW OF IDA GETS INFUSED WITH MID LATITUDE ENERGY AND
DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TOO MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY HERE
TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS
WED INTO WED EVE BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS OUT LATE WED NIGHT. THIS
IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS...SO NOT COMPLETELY GOING
TOWARD THE WET...STORMY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF
WHILE WEAKER INITIALLY...CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE MASS FIELDS OF THE
GFS AND IS SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...FUTURE
SOLUTIONS BEAR WATCHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG NE WINDS WED NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. WEAK W-NW FLOW TODAY COULD GIVE WAY TO WEAK AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A TOUCH OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ABOUT 14Z VIA STRONGER SW FLOW JUST OFF THE
DECK (WS006/24025KT)...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO ITS
MARGINAL NATURE. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...

MON-TUE...VFR.

TUE NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FROPA.

WED-THU...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED EVENING VIA SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INITIALLY...THEN FROM POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW.
INCREASING N-NE WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN SW FLOW AROUND 20 KT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-6 FT...ABOUT A
FOOT OVER WAVEWATCH VALUES. FROM THIS STARTING POINT HAVE GRADUALLY
TRENDED BACK TOWARD WAVEWATCH FORECAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
REQUIRING EXTENSION OF SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM WEST OF
MORICHES INLET...AND UNTIL MIDDAY FARTHER EAST.

QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW THEREAFTER UNTIL THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WITH STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES
WED NIGHT-THU...ESPECIALLY IF THE REMNANT POST-TROPICAL LOW FROM
HURRICANE IDA MANAGES TO PHASE WITH MID-LATITUDE ENERGY AS SOME
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT AND LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...DW
LONG TERM...DW/GOODMAN
AVIATION/MARINE...GOODMAN

000
FXUS61 KBGM 081132
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOK AS THOUGH THE MAY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

BY TUESDAY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL EFFECT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOSTLY RAIN IN THE BEGINNING...TEMPS MAY COOL ENOUGH TO GET
A SNOW/RAIN MIX. MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR...SO MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED H5 LOW BY MIDDAY WED OVR ERN
PA WITH SFC LOW OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC OVER SE PTN OF FA WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW MORNING, RAIN
AFTERNOON. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID
FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM/RRM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 080947
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES
ON TUESDAY AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
FRONT GETS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT AND OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TRANSLATES EASTWARD IN TANDEM WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT W/SW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE HEELS OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING...BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATES EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE DEEP-LAYERED WLY FLOW BRINGS WARM
AIR FROM THE NATION/S MID SECTION EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH 85H TEMPS PLUS 10 DEG C MON-TUE. A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR MIXING UP TO 950 MB...BUT SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO ECLIPSE THE 60 DEGREE MARK.

FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED IN THE LATE TUE INTO WED
TIME FRAME AS AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS CLEARLY A
MORE AMPLIFIED TREND NOTED IN THE GLOBALS MODELS OVER THE LAST TWO
CYCLES WHICH IS TAKING THE FORECAST DOWN A MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE
FOR THE MID WEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH FEATURE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PCPN...MAINLY A POST-FRONTAL PCPN EVENT. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT STALLS JUST EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
REMNANT LOW OF IDA GETS INFUSED WITH MID LATITUDE ENERGY AND
DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TOO MANY VARIABLES IN PLAY HERE
TO BE CONFIDENT IN THE FORECAST...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHC POPS
WED INTO WED EVE BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS OUT LATE WED NIGHT. THIS
IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS...SO NOT COMPLETELY GOING
TOWARD THE WET...STORMY SOLUTION OF THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF
WHILE WEAKER INITIALLY...CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE MASS FIELDS OF THE
GFS AND IS SLOWER WITH THE OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...FUTURE
SOLUTIONS BEAR WATCHING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG NE WINDS WED NIGHT WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK
WITH SSW 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK (WS006/20025KT)...
BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO ITS MARGINAL NATURE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT W-NW AND LIGHTEN BY ABOUT 14Z WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS
COULD INDUCE WEAK SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS...PERHAPS AN E-NE
SOUND BREEZE AT KLGA.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
06Z MON-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT.
THU...VFR WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN SW FLOW AROUND 20 KT ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-6 FT...ABOUT A
FOOT OVER WAVEWATCH VALUES. FROM THIS STARTING POINT HAVE GRADUALLY
TRENDED BACK TOWARD WAVEWATCH FORECAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
REQUIRING EXTENSION OF SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM WEST OF
MORICHES INLET...AND UNTIL MIDDAY FARTHER EAST.

QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW THEREAFTER UNTIL THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WITH STRONG SCA
CONDITIONS FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT GALES
WED NIGHT-THU...ESPECIALLY IF THE REMNANT POST-TROPICAL LOW FROM
HURRICANE IDA MANAGES TO PHASE WITH MID-LATITUDE ENERGY AS SOME
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT AND LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KALY 080913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT
VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25
DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE
TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT`S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES).

THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN
MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN
FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT
+9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE
THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT  THE 925MB WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS
HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW
AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A
LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED
VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A
BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH
OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO
60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45
TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL
BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO
ABOUT +6C.

BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS
NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE
FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.

HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR
ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND
FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY
GOES OUT 84 HOURS.

THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR
THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH.

THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT
CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS
MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY
LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL
TWEAKING.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.

WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE LOW  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER
THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER
COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN
WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS
THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU
TAF SITES SOMETIME AROUND 14Z. THE CLOUD DECK AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS FOR KALB WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS INITIALLY...THEN TEND TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LATER IN THE MORNING THEY WILL SWITCH TO WEST AT UNDER 10 KTS...THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD SUNSET. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO BE
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...AND CALM
TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE
FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER
SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KBGM 080909
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
409 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES
FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS ON MONDAY LOOK AS THOUGH THE MAY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

BY TUESDAY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL EFFECT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL COOL HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER
50S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. MOSTLY RAIN IN THE BEGINNING...TEMPS MAY COOL ENOUGH TO GET
A SNOW/RAIN MIX. MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR...SO MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED H5 LOW BY MIDDAY WED OVR ERN
PA WITH SFC LOW OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC OVER SE PTN OF FA WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW MORNING, RAIN
AFTERNOON. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID
FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5K FT CIGS ACROSS NRN TERMINALS WILL PUSH EAST BY 08Z-09Z. AFTER
THIS, MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE IMPLY POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
TOWARD MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND DECREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY LATEST MODEL RUNS IMPROVED TAFS
TO VFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2,500 FT WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS AT KRME BTW 10Z-12Z. REST OF TAF PERIOD SKC.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING MAINLY W/NW AROUND 5 KNOTS BY
MIDNIGHT THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM/RRM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 080845
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MOVES UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND AS OF 3AM. PLENTY OF CLEARING NOTED THOUGH ON IR
SATELLITE UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WHICH SHOULD
SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING FOR PARTY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BECOMING CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TODAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE
SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
MONDAY...850HPA TEMPS WARM TO +8-10C ACROSS THE REGION AND WITH
SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH MOST AREAS WARMING INTO THE
60S. NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER...THUS HAVE TRENDED
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
FILTER IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMING LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT BELOW...

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 AM EST SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE
PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT
THIS TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER PHASING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWRD ACROSS
GRTLKS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS GULF STATES TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BECOME ASSOCD WITH HURRICANE IDA. PLENTY OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE GFS. MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA GIVEN
THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE FROM TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GRTLKS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT (ALTHOUGH IF ECMWF/GFS VERIFY...THESE POPS WOULD NEED TO BE
RAISED AS EVENT NEARS). AS COLDER AIR IN LLVLS IS DRAWN SOUTH INTO
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SOME WET SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHRTWVS THEN OCCURS WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS
WOULD OCCUR TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST
AREA. LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF.
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
THROUGH FRIDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL IN ADVANCE OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
BKN-OVC040-050 THRU 12Z. MUCH DRIER AIR THEN ARRIVES...WITH P6SM SKC
FOR REST OF THE PERIOD. THREAT OF LLWS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LLJ WEAKENS. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF LLWS FOR
KRUT/KSLK THRU 10Z. SFC WINDS S TO SW GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN
CHMPLN/ST LWR VLYS EARLY THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TOWARDS 12Z.
DURING SUNDAY...WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A CHC
OF RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 080840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
340 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 904 PM...SCORE ONE FOR THE COMPUTER MODELS. GOING BACK TO
LAST MONDAY THEY ACCURATELY DEPICTED AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROF. THE
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW
AND MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF CNY
AND NEPA. THE EXCEPTION ACROSS OUR AREA IS WEST OF A KPEO/KELM
LINE WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE NOT MADE IT IN YET. DESPITE THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS...STILL EXPECT
WESTERN AREAS TO GET IN ON THE CLOUDS AS ANOTHER AREA NEAR KOLE
EXPANDS EASTWARD WHILE THE MUCH LARGER BATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE
EXPANDS WEST. NO PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THE CLOUDS BUT WITH A STIFF
BREEZE IN SPOTS AND THE CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE...LOWS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE STILL EXPECT A HUGE RANGE IN
OVERNIGHT MINS WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS ALREADY FLIRTING WITH
THE UPPER 30S WHILE THE FINGER LAKES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S. ON THE WHOLE...A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING CYQA. AS THIS
BACK EDGE APPROACHES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO MIX OUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.
H925 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OF 6C SUPPORTED HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES. WITH 925 TEMPS APPROACHING 9C SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 60S WITH MID 60S LIKELY
ACROSS THE WARMER SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. A PICTURE PERFECT
END TO THE WEEKEND!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WX XPCTD TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH WARM SW FLOW. TIMING
DIFFS ARISE WITH THE NXT FROPA...WITH THE NAM BEING A FAST OUTLIER.
LEANED TWDS THE SLOWER EURO/GFS/UKMET/HPC CONCENSUS...WHICH WOULD
BRING THE CDFNT THROUGH ON TUE. VERY MILD TEMPS XPCTD ON MON...WITH
MOST AREAS INTO THE M60S. IF THE WARMER NAM VERIFIES AND WE GET +14C
925 MB TEMPS INTO THE AREA AND FULL SUNSHINE...WE`LL HAVE THE POTNL FOR
SOME 70F MAXES ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AT ANY RATE
MAXES ON MON WILL AVG ARND 15 DEG ABV NORMAL. ATTM FROPA XPCTD ON
TUE AND CARRIED CHC POFS FOR SHRA THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH GFS/ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A CLOSED H5 LOW BY MIDDAY WED OVR ERN
PA WITH SFC LOW OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC OVER SE PTN OF FA WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW MORNING, RAIN
AFTERNOON. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID
FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5K FT CIGS ACROSS NRN TERMINALS WILL PUSH EAST BY 08Z-09Z. AFTER
THIS, MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE IMPLY POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
TOWARD MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND DECREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY LATEST MODEL RUNS IMPROVED TAFS
TO VFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2,500 FT WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS AT KRME BTW 10Z-12Z. REST OF TAF PERIOD SKC.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING MAINLY W/NW AROUND 5 KNOTS BY
MIDNIGHT THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EMH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM/RRM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBUF 080753
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
253 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SOLID DECK OF CLOUDS...EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC PROVINCE TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS GENERATING THESE CLOUDS ADVANCES
TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP DOES SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO TO THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...CONTINUING WEST
TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THERE IS NO PCPN FORMING ALONG THIS FRONT
     AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE NY/PA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WHAT IMPACT WILL THE PASSING FRONT
HAVE ON AREA TEMPERATURES. THE NAM AND GFS ACTUALLY SHOW 850 MB
MODERATING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT WE WILL
NOT HAVE THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ADVECTING
WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. STILL...THERE WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER READINGS EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS
500 MB HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE
FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WELL THERE/S REALLY NOT MUCH QUESTION THAT MONDAY WILL BE A WARM
DAY...WITH PRETTY MUCH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE PLACING WESTERN NEW YORK
ON THE WARM SIDE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO HOW WARM WILL IT GET?
WELL MODEL SURFACE TEMPS/SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND...GENERALLY UPPER 60S (MID 60S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY). DEPENDING ON HOW THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER TURNS OUT TO
BE...MAY EVEN WARM A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. THE RECORD IN
BUFFALO IS 70...ROCHESTER 74...AND WATERTOWN 68.

MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MID-WEEK...AS MODELS VARY
GREATLY IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. FOR THE 00Z RUNS...THE NAM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GEM)
ARE LARGELY DRY...WITH THE GFS/UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN
ALL MUCH MORE ACTIVE WITH THE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO MODEL IS COMPLETELY THROWN OUT...FEEL TRACK
RECORD OF THE LATTER MODELS IN THIS TIMEFRAME IS BETTER...SO STEER
THE FORECAST A BIT CLOSER TO THE GFS CAMP...WHILE NOT BUYING OFF ON
IT COMPLETELY. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO DROP TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG THE NOW STALLED
BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS GENERALLY YIELDS HIGH
CHANCE POPS...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. DESPITE
THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES START OFF SO WARM...THAT REALLY THINGS
WILL ONLY BE BROUGHT TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON WEDNESDAY...AS TO WHETHER LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REGION...WITH CONSENSUS LEANING TOWARDS A
DRY DAY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT
AMONG THE 00Z GEM/GFS AND 12Z EUROPEAN THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND TWEAK TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE GFS YIELDING GENERALLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

BOTH GFS/EUROPEAN BRING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN SHOWERS RATHER THAN SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...IN THE
40-45 KT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT WILL NOT MIX TO THE
SURFACE SO LLWS WILL BE NOTED AT ALL TERMINALS LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS. WE ALSO EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE 3000 FT...WITH SOME
LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SKIES CLEAR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...VFR RESUMES BY
13-14Z...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN ALL...ENTERING AN UNUSUALLY TRANQUIL PERIOD ON THE WATERS. WILL
ALLOW ALL SCA TO EXPIRE ON THE WATERS TODAY...AS WINDS AND WAVES
HAVE SUBSIDED. WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL

000
FXUS61 KBTV 080615
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 953 PM EST SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP. THE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND WEAK FRONT GRAZING THE
AREA. THUS HAVE RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT
AND KEPT THE CLOUDS IN LONGER. WITH VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WEAK FRONT/DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF
THE BORDER...THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED AND HAVE
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SATURDAY...WK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLD COVER CLRS
CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WSW FLOW TO WORK INTO AREA.
THIS IN TURN PROVIDES ENTIRE CWA A GREAT DAY W/ ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING E VT WILL SEE LATE REBOUND IN TEMPS DURING MORNING HRS
AS SW FLOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK OVER GREEN MTNS...SO WILL
TREND TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN REST OF THE CWA. WK
FRNTL BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST N OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NGT...W/ SFC
IMPULSE SETTING UP ALONG IT GOING INTO MON NGT. NO PRECIP LOOKING
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA AS SYSTEM GRAZES ONLY N BORDER ZONES.
KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE THERE W/ DRIER AIR OVER REST OF NORTH
COUNTRY IN PLACE GOING INTO EVENING HRS MONDAY. GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF FRNTL BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT GUSTS TO INCR
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. GONE ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AS 850
TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C WILL TRANSLATE INTO 60S FOR CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER
OR NOT 700-500MB TROUGH PHASING WILL OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN CA/ORE COASTLINE...AND THE UPR LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE EXITS
AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY OF SOLNS BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND PHASED
06/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING A DEEP SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GFS MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT ANY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO WET SNOW
SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/...WE FEEL IT/S PRUDENT AT THE CURRENT TIME
TO FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 12Z ECMWF.

WITH THAT BACKGROUND...FAVORED EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
INCLUDES A SEWD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT...ARE ALONG THE INTL
BORDER AS SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS GRADUALLY SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR
NRN NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRECIPITATION.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FAVORED...PROGRESSIVE SOLN WOULD HAVE
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGIONS AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY FAIR ATTM...WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
NEXT APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
BKN-OVC040-050 THRU 12Z. MUCH DRIER AIR THEN ARRIVES...WITH P6SM SKC
FOR REST OF THE PERIOD. THREAT OF LLWS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS LLJ WEAKENS. HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF LLWS FOR
KRUT/KSLK THRU 10Z. SFC WINDS S TO SW GUSTING TO 25 KTS IN
CHMPLN/ST LWR VLYS EARLY THIS MORNING...SUBSIDING TOWARDS 12Z.
DURING SUNDAY...WINDS WESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING A CHC
OF RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KOKX 080547
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1247 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SCT-
BKN HIGH BASED CU TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE (LOWER 40S). ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS
THOUGH...DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WARM BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
PERHAPS LOW 70S IN SOME LOCALES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SHOW A WARMING TREND EVEN WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING TO RANGE IN THE
40S AND 50S...A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND EASILY 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED SAT MORNING LOWS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER TIMING TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL
KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY TUE MORNING...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BY
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH BOTH THE 06Z/07 AND
12Z/07 RUNS DEVELOPING THE REMNANTS OF IDA INTO A COASTAL STORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z WED. THE 00Z/07 AND 12Z/07 GEM RUNS
ALSO DEVELOP A COASTAL STORM...BUT THE HIGH OVER THE NE IS FURTHER N
ON THE 12Z RUN WITH ITS SOLN SIMILAR TO THE GFS...BUT 12 HOURS
LATER. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF MANY OF THE ENS
MEMBERS...THEREFORE HAVE STEERED AWAY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
GEM FOR NOW.

COLD FROPA TUE EVE...WITH STRONG CAA AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD REMAIN
GUSTY ON WED WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK
WITH SSW 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK (WS006/20025KT)...
BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO ITS MARGINAL NATURE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT W-NW AND LIGHTEN BY ABOUT 14Z WITH PASSAGE OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS
COULD INDUCE WEAK SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS...PERHAPS AN E-NE
SOUND BREEZE AT KLGA.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
06Z MON-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT.
THU...VFR WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA
IN A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
OVERNIGHT. LINGERING 5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE
EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS REST
OF THE WATERS.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.
SCA POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT IN STRONG CAA BEHIND
FROPA...CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GOODMAN

000
FXUS61 KALY 080546
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...AND HEADING S/E. THE RUC13 850 RH SEEMS TO DEPICT
THIS BEST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS APPEARS A TAD SLOW. THESE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WARM
FRONT...APPROACHING FROM THE W. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF ALBANY...WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER S AND E...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
MORE BREAKS WILL ALSO OCCUR. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR
N/W AREAS...AND WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE WIND
WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW 40.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.

AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET.  THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MONRING WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU
TAF SITES SOMETIME AROUND 14Z. THE CLOUD DECK AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS FOR KALB WILL BE SOUTH
AT 10 TO 15 KTS INITIALLY...THEN TEND TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNRISE.
LATER IN THE MORNING THEY WILL SWITCH TO WEST AT UNDER 10 KTS...TEHN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD SUNSET. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO BE
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...AND CALM
TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 080545
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1245 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 904 PM...SCORE ONE FOR THE COMPUTER MODELS. GOING BACK TO
LAST MONDAY THEY ACCURATELY DEPICTED AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROF. THE
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW
AND MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF CNY
AND NEPA. THE EXCEPTION ACROSS OUR AREA IS WEST OF A KPEO/KELM
LINE WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE NOT MADE IT IN YET. DESPITE THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS...STILL EXPECT
WESTERN AREAS TO GET IN ON THE CLOUDS AS ANOTHER AREA NEAR KOLE
EXPANDS EASTWARD WHILE THE MUCH LARGER BATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE
EXPANDS WEST. NO PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THE CLOUDS BUT WITH A STIFF
BREEZE IN SPOTS AND THE CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE...LOWS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE STILL EXPECT A HUGE RANGE IN
OVERNIGHT MINS WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS ALREADY FLIRTING WITH
THE UPPER 30S WHILE THE FINGER LAKES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S. ON THE WHOLE...A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING CYQA. AS THIS
BACK EDGE APPROACHES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO MIX OUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.
H925 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OF 6C SUPPORTED HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES. WITH 925 TEMPS APPROACHING 9C SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 60S WITH MID 60S LIKELY
ACROSS THE WARMER SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. A PICTURE PERFECT
END TO THE WEEKEND!

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WX XPCTD TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH WARM SW FLOW. TIMING
DIFFS ARISE WITH THE NXT FROPA...WITH THE NAM BEING A FAST OUTLIER.
LEANED TWDS THE SLOWER EURO/GFS/UKMET/HPC CONCENSUS...WHICH WOULD
BRING THE CDFNT THROUGH ON TUE. VERY MILD TEMPS XPCTD ON MON...WITH
MOST AREAS INTO THE M60S. IF THE WARMER NAM VERIFIES AND WE GET +14C
925 MB TEMPS INTO THE AREA AND FULL SUNSHINE...WE`LL HAVE THE POTNL FOR
SOME 70F MAXES ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AT ANY RATE
MAXES ON MON WILL AVG ARND 15 DEG ABV NORMAL. ATTM FROPA XPCTD ON
TUE AND CARRIED CHC POFS FOR SHRA THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DFRNCS ON THE TUE/WED SYSTEM IMPACT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD
WITH THE GFS SLOWEST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS
DVLPS A CLSD H5 LOW BY 12Z WED AND WLD BRING CONT PCPN IN THE
AREA...WITH SOME SNOW LIKELY AT NGT INTO EARLY THU. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE EURO AND THE GFS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANYWAY...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HPC GUID BASED PARTIALLY ON
THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT ARRIVES. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST
SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST
RUNS AS ABV.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5K FT CIGS ACROSS NRN TERMINALS WILL PUSH EAST BY 08Z-09Z. AFTER
THIS, MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE IMPLY POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
TOWARD MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND DECREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPICTED BY LATEST MODEL RUNS IMPROVED TAFS
TO VFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2,500 FT WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CIGS AT KRME BTW 10Z-12Z. REST OF TAF PERIOD SKC.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING MAINLY W/NW AROUND 5 KNOTS BY
MIDNIGHT THEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EMH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBUF 080259
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
959 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WITH A SMALL PATCH
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN RESPONSE TO A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK TROUGHING AT 850MB TO
700MB. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THIS CLOUDY AREA
ERODING FROM THE NORTH AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...THUS CLEAR SKIES BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTY. SFC RIDGE PASSES RIGHT OVER OR JUST
TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS A DEG OR TWO WARMER (8-11C)...WE
SHOULD EASILY REACH L-M 60S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE WEST...U50S E OF LK ONTARIO. A BIT OF A WARM FRONT WILL GROW
EAST ACROSS SRN MICH IN AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEND TO SHIFT OUR
WINDS INTO E-NE LATER IN THE DAY SO IT MAY TURN COOLER S OF LK
ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...ANOTHER UNUSUALLY
NICE NOVEMBER DAY IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY
REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT SPELL OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
STRETCH...AS 925 MB/850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO +12 TO +13C.
IN THE PRESENCE OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SUCH
READINGS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY
FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 70
DEGREE MARK. DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...A GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OFF THE NOW 50-DEGREE LAKE WATERS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S IN
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS...STILL PRETTY NICE FOR THE 9TH OF
NOVEMBER.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES MARKEDLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 12Z NAM IS A FAST AND RELATIVELY DRY OUTLIER WITH THE COLD
FROPA...MOVING IT QUICKLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING THEN
RAPIDLY BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE OPPOSITE
EXTREME IS THE 12Z GFS...WHICH SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER AND UNUSUALLY
DEEP SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH INITIALLY LEADS TO A MUCH
SLOWER FROPA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN ARE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...WHICH OFFER A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...THEN ARE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS TUESDAY
NIGHT...INDICATING NO SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLY
A MUCH QUICKER END TO THE PRECIP.

GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE BOTH EXTREME OUTLIERS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AT THIS POINT WILL ELECT
TO FOLLOW THE MIDDLE PATH OF ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND HAVE GOOD
SUPPORT FROM BOTH HPC AND EXISTING CONTINUITY. AS A RESULT...WILL
BRING THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SAG THESE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH POPS CAPPED IN THE MID CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DISCREPANCIES SEEN IN
THIS PERIOD. THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH THE PRECIP POSSIBLY ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RATHER ZONAL ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY
CLOUDY WITH THE AREA UNDER A GENERAL NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE/UPPER TROUGHS...THOUGH THIS SHOULD
TEND TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO START THE
DAY AND MODEL TRENDS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAVE ELECTED
TO TRIM BACK HIGHS A CATEGORY OR SO FROM CONTINUITY ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW LIKELY TO SEE READINGS TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

AFTER CRESTING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR BOTH DAYS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. AS THIS HIGH RECEDES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...IT WILL ALLOW THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO WORK INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL BE COVERED WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...IN THE
40-45 KT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT WILL NOT MIX TO THE
SURFACE SO LLWS WILL BE NOTED AT ALL TERMINALS LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS. WE ALSO EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE 3000 FT...WITH SOME
LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SKIES CLEAR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...VFR RESUMES BY
13-14Z...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY ON EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION EVEN WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS. LOOK FOR MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA...WITH A TENDENCY FOR EASTERLIES TO
DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...SFM/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SFM/WCH
MARINE...SFM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 080253
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
953 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 953 PM EST SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
BREAK UP. THE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT...THERE
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND WEAK FRONT GRAZING THE
AREA. THUS HAVE RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UPWARD A BIT OVERNIGHT
AND KEPT THE CLOUDS IN LONGER. WITH VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WEAK FRONT/DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING NORTH OF
THE BORDER...THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED AND HAVE
REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SATURDAY...WK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLD COVER CLRS
CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WSW FLOW TO WORK INTO AREA.
THIS IN TURN PROVIDES ENTIRE CWA A GREAT DAY W/ ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING E VT WILL SEE LATE REBOUND IN TEMPS DURING MORNING HRS
AS SW FLOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK OVER GREEN MTNS...SO WILL
TREND TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN REST OF THE CWA. WK
FRNTL BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST N OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NGT...W/ SFC
IMPULSE SETTING UP ALONG IT GOING INTO MON NGT. NO PRECIP LOOKING
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA AS SYSTEM GRAZES ONLY N BORDER ZONES.
KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE THERE W/ DRIER AIR OVER REST OF NORTH
COUNTRY IN PLACE GOING INTO EVENING HRS MONDAY. GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF FRNTL BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT GUSTS TO INCR
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. GONE ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AS 850
TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C WILL TRANSLATE INTO 60S FOR CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER
OR NOT 700-500MB TROUGH PHASING WILL OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN CA/ORE COASTLINE...AND THE UPR LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE EXITS
AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY OF SOLNS BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND PHASED
06/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING A DEEP SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GFS MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT ANY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO WET SNOW
SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/...WE FEEL IT/S PRUDENT AT THE CURRENT TIME
TO FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 12Z ECMWF.

WITH THAT BACKGROUND...FAVORED EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
INCLUDES A SEWD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT...ARE ALONG THE INTL
BORDER AS SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS GRADUALLY SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR
NRN NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRECIPITATION.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FAVORED...PROGRESSIVE SOLN WOULD HAVE
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGIONS AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY FAIR ATTM...WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
NEXT APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRIMARY
CONCERN TONIGHT IS LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY IN THE CPV WITH KBTV S WINDS APPROX 10G22KT...BUT HAVE
DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS BETWEEN 1500-2000FT
ARE BETWEEN 35-45KT FROM THE SSW. THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 08Z AS THEY VEER TO THE WEST. PASSAGE OF A SFC
TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z SUNDAY WILL RESULT A FURTHER
MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT TOWARD MORNING AND EVEN NW TOWARD AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
POSSIBLE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/AMF

000
FXUS61 KBGM 080205
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
905 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 904 PM...SCORE ONE FOR THE COMPUTER MODELS. GOING BACK TO
LAST MONDAY THEY ACCURATELY DEPICTED AN AREA OF CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROF. THE
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW
AND MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF CNY
AND NEPA. THE EXCEPTION ACROSS OUR AREA IS WEST OF A KPEO/KELM
LINE WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE NOT MADE IT IN YET. DESPITE THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS...STILL EXPECT
WESTERN AREAS TO GET IN ON THE CLOUDS AS ANOTHER AREA NEAR KOLE
EXPANDS EASTWARD WHILE THE MUCH LARGER BATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE
EXPANDS WEST. NO PRECIP EXPECTED FROM THE CLOUDS BUT WITH A STIFF
BREEZE IN SPOTS AND THE CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE...LOWS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE STILL EXPECT A HUGE RANGE IN
OVERNIGHT MINS WITH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS ALREADY FLIRTING WITH
THE UPPER 30S WHILE THE FINGER LAKES MAY STRUGGLE TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S. ON THE WHOLE...A MUCH WARMER NIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING CYQA. AS THIS
BACK EDGE APPROACHES AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO MIX OUT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.
H925 TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OF 6C SUPPORTED HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES. WITH 925 TEMPS APPROACHING 9C SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE 60S WITH MID 60S LIKELY
ACROSS THE WARMER SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. A PICTURE PERFECT
END TO THE WEEKEND!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WX XPCTD TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH WARM SW FLOW. TIMING
DIFFS ARISE WITH THE NXT FROPA...WITH THE NAM BEING A FAST OUTLIER.
LEANED TWDS THE SLOWER EURO/GFS/UKMET/HPC CONCENSUS...WHICH WOULD
BRING THE CDFNT THROUGH ON TUE. VERY MILD TEMPS XPCTD ON MON...WITH
MOST AREAS INTO THE M60S. IF THE WARMER NAM VERIFIES AND WE GET +14C
925 MB TEMPS INTO THE AREA AND FULL SUNSHINE...WE`LL HAVE THE POTNL FOR
SOME 70F MAXES ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AT ANY RATE
MAXES ON MON WILL AVG ARND 15 DEG ABV NORMAL. ATTM FROPA XPCTD ON
TUE AND CARRIED CHC POFS FOR SHRA THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DFRNCS ON THE TUE/WED SYSTEM IMPACT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD
WITH THE GFS SLOWEST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS
DVLPS A CLSD H5 LOW BY 12Z WED AND WLD BRING CONT PCPN IN THE
AREA...WITH SOME SNOW LIKELY AT NGT INTO EARLY THU. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE EURO AND THE GFS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANYWAY...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HPC GUID BASED PARTIALLY ON
THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT ARRIVES. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST
SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST
RUNS AS ABV.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THAT IS NOW CROSSING THE LAKE NEAR KROC. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. CIGS WILL INITIALLY
BE NEAR 4KFT...BUT LOWER TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KITH BETWEEN 09Z - 13Z
DUE TO THE ELEVATION.

BY MID MORNING SUNDAY ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO SCOUR OUT THE
STRATUS WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOAA
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...NWS/DOC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN

000
FXUS61 KOKX 080134
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
834 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SCT-
BKN HIGH BASED CU TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR
SEASONABLE (LOWER 40S). ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS
THOUGH...DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WARM BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
PERHAPS LOW 70S IN SOME LOCALES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SHOW A WARMING TREND EVEN WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING TO RANGE IN THE
40S AND 50S...A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND EASILY 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED SAT MORNING LOWS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER TIMING TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL
KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY TUE MORNING...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BY
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH BOTH THE 06Z/07 AND
12Z/07 RUNS DEVELOPING THE REMNANTS OF IDA INTO A COASTAL STORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z WED. THE 00Z/07 AND 12Z/07 GEM RUNS
ALSO DEVELOP A COASTAL STORM...BUT THE HIGH OVER THE NE IS FURTHER N
ON THE 12Z RUN WITH ITS SOLN SIMILAR TO THE GFS...BUT 12 HOURS
LATER. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF MANY OF THE ENS
MEMBERS...THEREFORE HAVE STEERED AWAY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
GEM FOR NOW.

COLD FROPA TUE EVE...WITH STRONG CAA AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD REMAIN
GUSTY ON WED WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY.

MODERATE SSW FLOW ALONG COAST THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z TONIGHT AHEAD
OF TROUGH.

WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND LIGHTEN FURTHER TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

VFR WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT GRADIENT SUN AFTERNOON AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS MAY
ALLOW FOR WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS.
PERHAPS NE SOUND BREEZE AT KLGA.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT.
THU...VFR WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA
IN A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
OVERNIGHT. LINGERING 5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE
EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS REST
OF THE WATERS.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.
SCA POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT IN STRONG CAA BEHIND
FROPA...CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KALY 080134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
834 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 830 PM EST...CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/INCREASING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS...AND HEADING S/E. THE RUC13 850 RH SEEMS TO DEPICT
THIS BEST...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS APPEARS A TAD SLOW. THESE CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING/INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WARM
FRONT...APPROACHING FROM THE W. WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN PREVALENT
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF ALBANY...WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREAKS
POSSIBLE. FURTHER S AND E...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
MORE BREAKS WILL ALSO OCCUR. THUS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR
N/W AREAS...AND WITHIN THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE WIND
WILL ALSO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST TEMPS FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW 40.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.

AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET.  THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY...AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID MID ATLANTIC COAST.

KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME IFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE...DEPENDING ON IF VFR
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT. WINDS AT KGFL SHOULD REMAIN FROM A LIGHT
SE TO S DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW
TO W SUN MORNING AT 5-10 KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE
WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

KALB...EXPECT VFR THROUGH 00Z/MON. WINDS AT KALB WILL REMAIN FROM
THE S AT 8-12 KT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SUN MORNING AT 8-12 KT...DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO THE
SW TO S BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE
FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS AT KPOU WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN WIL BECOME W TO NW AT 8-12 KT SUN MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN
MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 080031
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL KEEP A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...WE WILL CLOSE OUT OUR NICEST DAY IN A MONTH WITH
SUNSHINE AND BREEZY MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS INTO L-M 60S THROUGH
SUNSET. THE FINE WX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST A
MINOR GLITCH OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF AND SFC FRONT SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BOTH NAM AND
GFS MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE DURING THE EARLY AND MID EVENING...BUT ABSOLUTELY
NOTHING SHOWING UPSTREAM IN MICHIGAN YET SO THIS WOULD TEND TO
DEVELOP OVER US RATHER THAN ADVECT IN  AND SUSPECT THE MODELS MAY BE
OVERDOING IT A BIT. NONETHELESS WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER DARK LEADING TO DECOUPLING OF LOWER LEVELS ALONG
WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION JUST OFF THE DECK...WILL SHOW A PERIOD
OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE GRIDS STARTING AFTER ABOUT 01Z
AND CONTINUING UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK BUT NO CHANCE OF ANY RAIN. TEMPS
WILL FALL QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING AND LEVEL OFF...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND FOLLOWED.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTY...ALTHOUGH WE MAY START OFF WITH
SOME LOW CLOUD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES...WHICH WILL
BURN OFF DURING THE MORNING. SFC RIDGE PASSES RIGHT OVER OR JUST TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN TODAY...AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS A DEG OR TWO WARMER (8-11C)...WE SHOULD EASILY
REACH L-M 60S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST...U50S
E OF LK ONTARIO. A BIT OF A WARM FRONT WILL GROW EAST ACROSS SRN
MICH IN AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TEND TO SHIFT OUR WINDS INTO E-NE
LATER IN THE DAY SO IT MAY TURN COOLER S OF LK ONTARIO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...ANOTHER UNUSUALLY NICE NOVEMBER DAY
IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MILD AIR BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. WITH THE BOUNDARY
REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT SPELL OF DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS
STRETCH...AS 925 MB/850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO +12 TO +13C.
IN THE PRESENCE OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SUCH
READINGS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY
FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES...WITH SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES LIKELY FLIRTING WITH THE 70
DEGREE MARK. DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...A GOOD
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OFF THE NOW 50-DEGREE LAKE WATERS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS A BIT COOLER...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S IN
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS...STILL PRETTY NICE FOR THE 9TH OF
NOVEMBER.

DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES MARKEDLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT WORKS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE 12Z NAM IS A FAST AND RELATIVELY DRY OUTLIER WITH THE COLD
FROPA...MOVING IT QUICKLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING THEN
RAPIDLY BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AT THE OPPOSITE
EXTREME IS THE 12Z GFS...WHICH SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER AND UNUSUALLY
DEEP SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH INITIALLY LEADS TO A MUCH
SLOWER FROPA ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SECONDARY COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND
LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN ARE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...WHICH OFFER A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY...THEN ARE MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS TUESDAY
NIGHT...INDICATING NO SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT AND CONSEQUENTLY
A MUCH QUICKER END TO THE PRECIP.

GIVEN THAT THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE BOTH EXTREME OUTLIERS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AT THIS POINT WILL ELECT
TO FOLLOW THE MIDDLE PATH OF ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH HAVE GENERALLY BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND HAVE GOOD
SUPPORT FROM BOTH HPC AND EXISTING CONTINUITY. AS A RESULT...WILL
BRING THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SAG THESE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH POPS CAPPED IN THE MID CHANCE
RANGE FOR NOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DISCREPANCIES SEEN IN
THIS PERIOD. THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST...WITH THE PRECIP POSSIBLY ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE LONGWAVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RATHER ZONAL ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WHILE BROAD
TROUGHING GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION.
THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TEMPERATURES AROUND OR
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOOKING AT THE FORECAST DETAILS...WEDNESDAY SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY
CLOUDY WITH THE AREA UNDER A GENERAL NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE/UPPER TROUGHS...THOUGH THIS SHOULD
TEND TO BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES EASTWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO START THE
DAY AND MODEL TRENDS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAVE ELECTED
TO TRIM BACK HIGHS A CATEGORY OR SO FROM CONTINUITY ON WEDNESDAY...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW LIKELY TO SEE READINGS TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.

AFTER CRESTING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR BOTH DAYS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. AS THIS HIGH RECEDES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...IT WILL ALLOW THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO WORK INTO THE AREA...WHICH WILL BE COVERED WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET...IN THE
40-45 KT RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT WILL NOT MIX TO THE
SURFACE SO LLWS WILL BE NOTED AT ALL TERMINALS LASTING ABOUT SIX
HOURS. WE ALSO EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH AND IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE 3000 FT...WITH SOME
LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SKIES CLEAR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...VFR RESUMES BY
13-14Z...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
ALONG THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORES AS WELL AS OVER THE LAKE ONTARIO
NEARSHORES NORTH OF MEXICO BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE FLAGS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT ON LAKE ERIE AND UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO
RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION. LOOK FOR MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA...WITH A TENDENCY FOR
EASTERLIES TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...SFM
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SFM/WCH
MARINE...SFM

000
FXUS61 KALY 072355
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.

AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET.  THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MONDAY...AS IT GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST OFF THE MID MID ATLANTIC COAST.

KGFL...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME IFR VSBYS AROUND SUNRISE...DEPENDING ON IF VFR
LEVEL CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT. WINDS AT KGFL SHOULD REMAIN FROM A LIGHT
SE TO S DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW
TO W SUN MORNING AT 5-10 KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE
WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

KALB...EXPECT VFR THROUGH 00Z/MON. WINDS AT KALB WILL REMAIN FROM
THE S AT 8-12 KT THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
8 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SUN MORNING AT 8-12 KT...DIMINISHING AND BACKING INTO THE
SW TO S BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS
EVENING...PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY SUN MORNING AS SFC WINDS DECREASE
TO LESS THAN 8 KT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT AGL INCREASE
FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/MON...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE.
WINDS AT KPOU WILL REMAIN FROM THE S AND DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN WIL BECOME W TO NW AT 8-12 KT SUN MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUN AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY SUN
MORNING AS SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WHILE WINDS AT AND ABOVE 2000 FT
AGL INCREASE FROM THE SW TO 35-40 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED-THU...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL/ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 072352
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE
AREA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WILL GRAZE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER FOR MAINLY
TUESDAY THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SATURDAY...CLDS THAT SLOWLY PUSHED THRU THE CWA
THIS MORNING HAVE ALMOST CLRD THE REGION...WITH BACK EDGE WORKING
INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY/E VT. THIS IN TURN WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH A FEW HRS OF DAYLIGHT/CLRING GOING INTO EVENING HRS
BFR WK FRNTL BOUNDARY MVS OUT OF GREAT LKS REGION. BULK OF SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER AS IT MVS E OVERNGT. CONTINUED TO GO
W/ MIX OF GFS/NAM WHICH BRING SL CHANCE OF A SHOWER/SPRINKLE
MAINLY TO HIR ELEV. GONE ABV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVERNGT AS SSW
WINDS WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR MOST OF NITE AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE
WSW AS SYSTEM PASSES. AS A RESULT NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS DUE
TO LACK OF CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST SATURDAY...WK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLD COVER CLRS
CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR WSW FLOW TO WORK INTO AREA.
THIS IN TURN PROVIDES ENTIRE CWA A GREAT DAY W/ ABV NORMAL TEMPS.
EXPECTING E VT WILL SEE LATE REBOUND IN TEMPS DURING MORNING HRS
AS SW FLOW WILL TAKE A WHILE TO WORK OVER GREEN MTNS...SO WILL
TREND TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN REST OF THE CWA. WK
FRNTL BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST N OF THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NGT...W/ SFC
IMPULSE SETTING UP ALONG IT GOING INTO MON NGT. NO PRECIP LOOKING
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA AS SYSTEM GRAZES ONLY N BORDER ZONES.
KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE THERE W/ DRIER AIR OVER REST OF NORTH
COUNTRY IN PLACE GOING INTO EVENING HRS MONDAY. GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF FRNTL BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT GUSTS TO INCR
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. GONE ABV NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY AS 850
TEMPS OF +8C TO +10C WILL TRANSLATE INTO 60S FOR CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER
OR NOT 700-500MB TROUGH PHASING WILL OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN CA/ORE COASTLINE...AND THE UPR LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE EXITS
AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY OF SOLNS BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND PHASED
06/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING A DEEP SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GFS MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT ANY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO WET SNOW
SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/...WE FEEL IT/S PRUDENT AT THE CURRENT TIME
TO FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 12Z ECMWF.

WITH THAT BACKGROUND...FAVORED EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
INCLUDES A SEWD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT...ARE ALONG THE INTL
BORDER AS SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS GRADUALLY SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR
NRN NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRECIPITATION.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FAVORED...PROGRESSIVE SOLN WOULD HAVE
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGIONS AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY FAIR ATTM...WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
NEXT APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CIGS AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRIMARY
CONCERN TONIGHT IS LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO
BE GUSTY IN THE CPV WITH KBTV S WINDS APPROX 10G22KT...BUT HAVE
DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 10KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS BETWEEN 1500-2000FT
ARE BETWEEN 35-45KT FROM THE SSW. THESE WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER 08Z AS THEY VEER TO THE WEST. PASSAGE OF A SFC
TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 14Z SUNDAY WILL RESULT A FURTHER
MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT TOWARD MORNING AND EVEN NW TOWARD AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
POSSIBLE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/AMF

000
FXUS61 KBGM 072341
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLDS TO OUR IMMEDIATE NW...MDLS
INDICATE INCRSNG LOW LVL MSTR LATER TNGT ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE
PA...WITH NAM/GFS PROFILES SHOWING NEAR SATURATION IN THE 950-850 MB
LAYER LATE TNGT ACRS MOST OF THE BGM CWA. LATEST LAV BULLETINS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS TREND...AND EVEN MOS INDICATES POTNL FOR
BRIEF OVC CONDITIONS LATER TNGT. GIVEN MDL AGREEMENT WILL PLAY THIS
SCENARIO TNGT...WITH MOSTLY CLDY SKIES DVLPNG. XPCT LOW CLDS TO
MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TMRW MRNG...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY TNGT...BUT XPCT MINS ONLY IN THE M/U40S ACRS THE LAKE
PLAIN...WHERE SOME L60S WERE OBSERVED TDA...AND MINS CLOSER TO THE
U30S/A40 ACRS THE SRN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. TEMPS TMRW REBOUNDING
QUICKLY WITH MAXES IN THE M60S WRN SXNS AND A60 EAST...A GOOD 10 DEG
ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WX XPCTD TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH WARM SW FLOW. TIMING
DIFFS ARISE WITH THE NXT FROPA...WITH THE NAM BEING A FAST OUTLIER.
LEANED TWDS THE SLOWER EURO/GFS/UKMET/HPC CONCENSUS...WHICH WOULD
BRING THE CDFNT THROUGH ON TUE. VERY MILD TEMPS XPCTD ON MON...WITH
MOST AREAS INTO THE M60S. IF THE WARMER NAM VERIFIES AND WE GET +14C
925 MB TEMPS INTO THE AREA AND FULL SUNSHINE...WE`LL HAVE THE POTNL FOR
SOME 70F MAXES ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AT ANY RATE
MAXES ON MON WILL AVG ARND 15 DEG ABV NORMAL. ATTM FROPA XPCTD ON
TUE AND CARRIED CHC POFS FOR SHRA THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL DFRNCS ON THE TUE/WED SYSTEM IMPACT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD
WITH THE GFS SLOWEST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS
DVLPS A CLSD H5 LOW BY 12Z WED AND WLD BRING CONT PCPN IN THE
AREA...WITH SOME SNOW LIKELY AT NGT INTO EARLY THU. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE EURO AND THE GFS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANYWAY...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HPC GUID BASED PARTIALLY ON
THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT ARRIVES. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST
SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST
RUNS AS ABV.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THAT IS NOW CROSSING THE LAKE NEAR KROC. THIS
AREA OF CLOUDS WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. CIGS WILL INITIALLY
BE NEAR 4KFT...BUT LOWER TO MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AT ALL
TERMINALS. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KITH BETWEEN 09Z - 13Z
DUE TO THE ELEVATION.

BY MID MORNING SUNDAY ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO SCOUR OUT THE
STRATUS WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...THE
NEAR TERM...WX
SHORT TERM...SVC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN

000
FXUS61 KOKX 072318
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
618 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT TOWARD
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. THIS...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE
IN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE
ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10
DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK. 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WARM BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND
PERHAPS LOW 70S IN SOME LOCALES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SHOW A WARMING TREND EVEN WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT LOWS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING TO RANGE IN THE
40S AND 50S...A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND EASILY 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED SAT MORNING LOWS.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER TIMING TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL
KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY TUE MORNING...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BY
LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS
BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH BOTH THE 06Z/07 AND
12Z/07 RUNS DEVELOPING THE REMNANTS OF IDA INTO A COASTAL STORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z WED. THE 00Z/07 AND 12Z/07 GEM RUNS
ALSO DEVELOP A COASTAL STORM...BUT THE HIGH OVER THE NE IS FURTHER N
ON THE 12Z RUN WITH ITS SOLN SIMILAR TO THE GFS...BUT 12 HOURS
LATER. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF MANY OF THE ENS
MEMBERS...THEREFORE HAVE STEERED AWAY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
GEM FOR NOW.

COLD FROPA TUE EVE...WITH STRONG CAA AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD REMAIN
GUSTY ON WED WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY.

MODERATE SSW FLOW ALONG COAST THROUGH AROUND 06-08Z TONIGHT AHEAD
OF TROUGH.

WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND LIGHTEN FURTHER TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

VFR WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT GRADIENT SUN AFTERNOON AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS MAY
ALLOW FOR WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS.
PERHAPS NE SOUND BREEZE AT KLGA.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THU...
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT.
THU...VFR WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA IN
A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT...SO THINK THE OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING ON...WITH LINGERING 5-FT SEAS
POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR TONIGHT TO WARRANT
SCA FROM 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.
SCA POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT IN STRONG CAA BEHIND
FROPA...CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KALY 072038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AS UPPER AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING REINFORCES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM...AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND ANY VALLEYS THAT CHANNEL WINDS. THIS MAKES FOR
SOME STRANGE ISSUES AS FAR AS POTENTIAL LOCAL EFFECTS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN SHORT DISTANCES ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
EVEN MORE SO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
NEXT SECTION.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A BROKEN CLOUD DECK LATER TONIGHT AND AROUND
SUNRISE...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE FALLS IN SOME AREAS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 IN WARMER
SPOTS...AROUND 30 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. THE RELATIVE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED CLOUD COVER...SO EVEN
WITH THE RAPIDLY LOWERING SUN ANGLE...SOME MIXING SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 60 TO LOWER 60S TOMORROW...AND LOWER
TO UPPER 60S MONDAY.

AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND AGAIN
ON WHAT LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND...AND WHAT
LOCATIONS GO CALM. THERE COULD BE 10+ DEGREE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
LOCATIONS THAT SEE CALM WINDS AND THOSE THAT SEE SOUTH WINDS AT
2-5 MPH...SO AROUND FREEZING IN AREAS THAT GO CALM...AND LOW TO
MID 40S IN AREAS THAT SEE LIGHT SOUTH WINDS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THERE COULD BE SOME THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALL AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.
MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SLOWER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SUGGESTING
GRADUAL WIND SHIFT AND SLOWER COOLING...BUT STILL...WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...HIGHS AROUND 60...50S IN
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS NOT RESOLVING UPSTREAM FEATURES SUCH AS PACIFIC JET
ENERGY...AND IDA APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO...SO ANY ISSUES FROM
TUESDAY AND BEYOND WILL NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL FEATURES ENTER
DENSER DATA NETWORK. MORE INFO IN LONG RANGE SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE TROPICS WITH IDA WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DURING THE LONG TERM SINCE ITS RELATED ENSEMBLE
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT ITS OPERATIONAL MEMBERS INCLUDING
INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/UKMET.  THE
REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA AND
WILL FOLLOW A DRIER SOLUTION HEADING INTO THIS LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER PLAINS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK AND A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA.
TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH/RIDGE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY WEEKS END WHICH WILL AID IN THE
WARM TRANSPORT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AC DECK SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE SKIRTS BY
GFL...BUT EXPECTING CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AT INCREASINGLY LOWER
LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...SO HAVE GONE BKN050-060 BY 04Z
AT ALL AIRPORTS.  BUT ALSO THINK MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SC BELOW 3000 FEET.  HAVE GONE WITH AN MVFR
CIG AT GFL AND ALB AFT 10Z.

SLGT WAA AND A FEW CLOUD BREAKS COULD FORM SOME LIGHT WAA FOG WHICH
MAY GO MVFR...XCP HAVE STAYED 6SM AT ALB...ALL AFT 04Z.  GFL WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY WORSE VSBY CATEGORY GIVEN THE PAPER
MILL AND NEARLY CALM WIND.  EXPECTING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS SEVERELY LACKING.  STILL
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME TO SEE A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES EVOLVE AT GFL AND
ALB TOWARD DAYBREAK.

2000-FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CARRYING IN THE MOISTURE THIS EVENING
ARE INTO WIND SHEAR CRITERIA.  THUS...HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF 35
KNOTS AT ALL THE AIRPORTS FROM 22Z TO 04Z...THEN FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY LESSENS IN WEAKENING ENVIRONMENT.  SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE NO MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...ELH
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS

000
FXUS61 KBTV 072030
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ADJUST CLD
COVER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CLD COVER CURRENTLY MVG SLOWLY OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING. AREAS THAT WERE MSUNNY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
AREA OF CLDS INTO THE AFTNOON HRS. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 328 PM EST SATURDAY...
THE OVERALL PREDICTABILITY OF THE PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED FCST
PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER
OR NOT 700-500MB TROUGH PHASING WILL OCCUR DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS THE NRN CA/ORE COASTLINE...AND THE UPR LOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE EXITS
AN INTERESTING DICHOTOMY OF SOLNS BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND PHASED
06/12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING A DEEP SFC CYCLONE...AND THE
MAJORITY OF THE 12Z GFS MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH SHOW A
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE UPR TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT ANY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WHILE WE ARE NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET CONCERNING A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO WET SNOW
SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN NY AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/...WE FEEL IT/S PRUDENT AT THE CURRENT TIME
TO FAVOR THE MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND 12Z ECMWF.

WITH THAT BACKGROUND...FAVORED EVOLUTION OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES
INCLUDES A SEWD SAGGING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST POPS...AROUND 60 PERCENT...ARE ALONG THE INTL
BORDER AS SFC COLD FRONT SHIFTS GRADUALLY SEWD ACROSS NRN NY AND FAR
NRN NY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT LOW 50S FOR THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL ZONE AND
PRECIPITATION.

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW-LEVEL CAA INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE EXISTS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC CYCLOGENESIS
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FAVORED...PROGRESSIVE SOLN WOULD HAVE
DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGIONS AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING OCCURS. HAVE INDICATED A CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS...MIXING WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY FAIR ATTM...WITH A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TRANSLATING EWD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE MID/UPR 40S.
NEXT APPROACHING SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NGT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 6-8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND GENERALLY DIMINISH
AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THRU THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT...BUT ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY PCPN. AT THE SFC...SFC RIDGE IS SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE AND WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 25-27 KTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN THRU 06Z SUNDAY. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MPV...RUT...AND
SLK WHERE MIXING WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 40-50 KTS AT 2
KFT BETWEEN 02-08Z TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCLUDED WIND
SHEAR MENTION AWAY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
14Z SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. ANY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH A DRIER WLY WIND FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
PASSAGE MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY 18Z THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
POSSIBLE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 071916
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLDS TO OUR IMMEDIATE NW...MDLS
INDICATE INCRSNG LOW LVL MSTR LATER TNGT ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE
PA...WITH NAM/GFS PROFILES SHOWING NEAR SATURATION IN THE 950-850 MB
LAYER LATE TNGT ACRS MOST OF THE BGM CWA. LATEST LAV BULLETINS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS TREND...AND EVEN MOS INDICATES POTNL FOR
BRIEF OVC CONDITIONS LATER TNGT. GIVEN MDL AGREEMENT WILL PLAY THIS
SCENARIO TNGT...WITH MOSTLY CLDY SKIES DVLPNG. XPCT LOW CLDS TO
MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TMRW MRNG...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY TNGT...BUT XPCT MINS ONLY IN THE M/U40S ACRS THE LAKE
PLAIN...WHERE SOME L60S WERE OBSERVED TDA...AND MINS CLOSER TO THE
U30S/A40 ACRS THE SRN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. TEMPS TMRW REBOUNDING
QUICKLY WITH MAXES IN THE M60S WRN SXNS AND A60 EAST...A GOOD 10 DEG
ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
QUIET WX XPCTD TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH WARM SW FLOW. TIMING
DIFFS ARISE WITH THE NXT FROPA...WITH THE NAM BEING A FAST OUTLIER.
LEANED TWDS THE SLOWER EURO/GFS/UKMET/HPC CONCENSUS...WHICH WOULD
BRING THE CDFNT THROUGH ON TUE. VERY MILD TEMPS XPCTD ON MON...WITH
MOST AREAS INTO THE M60S. IF THE WARMER NAM VERIFIES AND WE GET +14C
925 MB TEMPS INTO THE AREA AND FULL SUNSHINE...WE`LL HAVE THE POTNL FOR
SOME 70F MAXES ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AT ANY RATE
MAXES ON MON WILL AVG ARND 15 DEG ABV NORMAL. ATTM FROPA XPCTD ON
TUE AND CARRIED CHC POFS FOR SHRA THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL DFRNCS ON THE TUE/WED SYSTEM IMPACT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD
WITH THE GFS SLOWEST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS
DVLPS A CLSD H5 LOW BY 12Z WED AND WLD BRING CONT PCPN IN THE
AREA...WITH SOME SNOW LIKELY AT NGT INTO EARLY THU. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE EURO AND THE GFS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANYWAY...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HPC GUID BASED PARTIALLY ON
THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT ARRIVES. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST
SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST
RUNS AS ABV.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS AFTN AS SW FOW CONTS. TNGT...MODELS SHOW
SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA BHD A WEAK WRM FNT.
THIS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INV SO XPCTG SOME ST
DVLPMT WITH CIGS GNRLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT PROMOTES MIXING AFTER SUNRISE SO VFR CONDS SHD RETURN. LGT
SLY WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNGT...THEN SW AT
ARND 10 KTS SUNDAY BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KBGM 071845
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
145 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATER TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE..HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME ON TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLDS TO OUR IMMEDIATE NW...MDLS
INDICATE INCRSNG LOW LVL MSTR LATER TNGT ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE
PA...WITH NAM/GFS PROFILES SHOWING NEAR SATURATION IN THE 950-850 MB
LAYER LATE TNGT ACRS MOST OF THE BGM CWA. LATEST LAV BULLETINS ARE
ALSO PICKING UP ON THIS TREND...AND EVEN MOS INDICATES POTNL FOR
BRIEF OVC CONDITIONS LATER TNGT. GIVEN MDL AGREEMENT WILL PLAY THIS
SCENARIO TNGT...WITH MOSTLY CLDY SKIES DVLPNG. XPCT LOW CLDS TO
MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TMRW MRNG...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY TNGT...BUT XPCT MINS ONLY IN THE M/U40S ACRS THE LAKE
PLAIN...WHERE SOME L60S WERE OBSERVED TDA...AND MINS CLOSER TO THE
U30S/A40 ACRS THE SRN CATSKILLS AND NE PA. TEMPS TMRW REBOUNDING
QUICKLY WITH MAXES IN THE M60S WRN SXNS AND A60 EAST...A GOOD 10 DEG
ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

QUIET WX XPCTD TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH WARM SW FLOW. TIMING
DIFFS ARISE WITH THE NXT FROPA...WITH THE NAM BEING A FAST OUTLIER.
LEANED TWDS THE SLOWER EURO/GFS/UKMET/HPC CONCENSUS...WHICH WOULD
BRING THE CDFNT THROUGH ON TUE. VERY MILD TEMPS XPCTD ON MON...WITH
MOST AREAS INTO THE M60S. IF THE WARMER NAM VERIFIES AND WE GET +14C
925 MB TEMPS INTO THE AREA AND FULL SUNSHINE...WE`LL HAVE THE POTNL FOR
SOME 70F MAXES ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. AT ANY RATE
MAXES ON MON WILL AVG ARND 15 DEG ABV NORMAL. ATTM FROPA XPCTD ON
TUE AND CARRIED CHC POFS FOR SHRA THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL DFRNCS ON THE TUE/WED SYSTEM IMPACT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD
WITH THE GFS SLOWEST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS
DVLPS A CLSD H5 LOW BY 12Z WED AND WLD BRING CONT PCPN IN THE
AREA...WITH SOME SNOW LIKELY AT NGT INTO EARLY THU. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE EURO AND THE GFS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANYWAY...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HPC GUID BASED PARTIALLY ON
THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT ARRIVES. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST
SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST
RUNS AS ABV.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS AFTN AS SW FOW CONTS. TNGT...MODELS SHOW
SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA BHD A WEAK WRM FNT.
THIS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INV SO XPCTG SOME ST
DVLPMT WITH CIGS GNRLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT PROMOTES MIXING AFTER SUNRISE SO VFR CONDS SHD RETURN. LGT
SLY WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNGT...THEN SW AT
ARND 10 KTS SUNDAY BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071810
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
110 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ADJUST CLD
COVER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CLD COVER CURRENTLY MVG SLOWLY OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING. AREAS THAT WERE MSUNNY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
AREA OF CLDS INTO THE AFTNOON HRS. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL AS RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 6-8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND GENERALLY DIMINISH
AT THE TAF LOCATIONS THRU THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT...BUT ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY PCPN. AT THE SFC...SFC RIDGE IS SHIFTING EWD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE AND WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WINDS THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 25-27 KTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN THRU 06Z SUNDAY. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR MPV...RUT...AND
SLK WHERE MIXING WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET...REACHING AN INTENSITY OF 40-50 KTS AT 2
KFT BETWEEN 02-08Z TONIGHT. BASED ON THIS...HAVE INCLUDED WIND
SHEAR MENTION AWAY FROM THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
14Z SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A BIT MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT
TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. ANY LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH A DRIER WLY WIND FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
PASSAGE MID-MORNING SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY 18Z THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
POSSIBLE RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS NRN NY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SHOWERS END
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...BANACOS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 071751
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1251 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...LIKELY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 910 AM...BATCH OF WAA-INDUCED MID-DECK PROGRSSING ACRS
THE BGM CWA. FOR WRN ZONES...WILL CALL IT MOSTLY SUNNY. ACRS
CNTRL ZONES WHERE THE BKN-OVC DECK IS CRNTLY LOCATED...XPCT SKIES
TO BCM MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. ACRS FAR ERN ZONES...WILL JUST CALL
IT PARTLY SUNNY TO ACCOUNT FOR A PERIOD OF CLDS WHICH IS LIKELY
LATE THIS MRNG INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. WILL ALSO NUDGE DOWN MAXES
ERN ZONES A TAD. NOTE THAT 12Z BUF SNDG INDICATED +11C AT
925...MIXED DOWN WITH FULL SUN THAT WOULD GET MAXES INTO THE L60S
ACRS FAR WRN ZONES...BUT WITH CLDS AND EXPECTATIONS THAT WE`LL SEE
SOME CLD THERE THIS AFTN...WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE U50S THERE.
PREV BLO...

UPDATED AT 655 AM...UPDATED CLD GRIDS ZONES TO SHOW PSSG OF BKN-
OVC MID DECK...AND INDICATED A PERIOD OF CLDS THIS MRNG IN THE
ZONES. PREV BLO...

IR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID TO UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE CWA. THIS IS SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE...BUT WILL ALSO MEAN THAT IT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE CWA
IN THE MORNING ALLOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMING TREND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EVEN
WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST
IN WARMING THINGS UP AS IT KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THE HIGH
REBOUNDS SUNDAY VERY QUICKLY AND WILL LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
FRONT...SO HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF PRECIP OUT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE FRONT WILL NOT CROSS THE CWA UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL DFRNCS ON THE TUE/WED SYSTEM IMPACT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD
WITH THE GFS SLOWEST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS. OPERATIONAL GFS
DVLPS A CLSD H5 LOW BY 12Z WED AND WLD BRING CONT PCPN IN THE
AREA...WITH SOME SNOW LIKELY AT NGT INTO EARLY THU. EARLIER RUNS
OF THE EURO AND THE GFS WERE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM.
ANYWAY...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HPC GUID BASED PARTIALLY ON
THE 12Z ECMWF AS IT ARRIVES. OTRW...GNRLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. AS RDGG BLDS AHD OF THE NEXT MIDWEST
SYSTEM. FLWD HPC GUID FOR TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST WITH THE LATEST
RUNS AS ABV.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS AFTN AS SW FOW CONTS. TNGT...MODELS SHOW
SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA BHD A WEAK WRM FNT.
THIS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INV SO XPCTG SOME ST
DVLPMT WITH CIGS GNRLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. ON SUNDAY...VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT PROMOTES MIXING AFTER SUNRISE SO VFR CONDS SHD RETURN. LGT
SLY WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL TNGT...THEN SW AT
ARND 10 KTS SUNDAY BHD THE FNT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.
THU...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM

000
FXUS61 KALY 071746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.

AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.

DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO COOL THINGS OFF.

EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS WELL
TO OUR EAST...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PCPN WILL END...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS...RATHER THAN CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.

WILL KEEP A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40
TO 50 WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30...THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...AND THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AC DECK SHOWING SIGNS OF EROSION AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE SKIRTS BY
GFL...BUT EXPECTING CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLUX AT INCREASINGLY LOWER
LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...SO HAVE GONE BKN050-060 BY 04Z
AT ALL AIRPORTS.  BUT ALSO THINK MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING IN SOME SC BELOW 3000 FEET.  HAVE GONE WITH AN MVFR
CIG AT GFL AND ALB AFT 10Z.

SLGT WAA AND A FEW CLOUD BREAKS COULD FORM SOME LIGHT WAA FOG WHICH
MAY GO MVFR...XCP HAVE STAYED 6SM AT ALB...ALL AFT 04Z.  GFL WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY WORSE VSBY CATEGORY GIVEN THE PAPER
MILL AND NEARLY CALM WIND.  EXPECTING THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS FOR NOW AS DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IS SEVERELY LACKING.  STILL
WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME TO SEE A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES EVOLVE AT GFL AND
ALB TOWARD DAYBREAK.

2000-FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CARRYING IN THE MOISTURE THIS EVENING
ARE INTO WIND SHEAR CRITERIA.  THUS...HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF 35
KNOTS AT ALL THE AIRPORTS FROM 22Z TO 04Z...THEN FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY LESSENS IN WEAKENING ENVIRONMENT.  SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE NO MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN PM-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX.
TUE-TUE NGT...-SHRA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY.
WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$

AVIATION...ELH

000
FXUS61 KOKX 071743
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1243 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST IN TANDEM WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE DAY GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN AND AROUND NYC.
LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION ENSUES TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER BY THIS AFT THAN A DAY AGO. STILL THOUGH...THIS
TRANSLATES TO TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH A MIXED
LAYER ONLY UP TO 925 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY
TRANSPARENT WITH SUNNY SKIES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROF ALONG THE US/BORDER RACES EASTWARD TONIGHT TO
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A SFC TROF
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO PCPN FORECAST.

A DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S SUN THRU TUE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH RIDGING
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. ITS NOT UNTIL LATE MON THAT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION.

SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
TUE AFT/EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. POPS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING (SOUTH AT KJFK AFTER
19-20Z BEFORE VEERING BACK TO THE SW).

WIND SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AT KJFK TO 15 TO 18
KTS POSSIBLE.

WINDS LIGHTEN SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING 5 TO 10 KT...THEN VEER TO THE
WEST AND LIGHTEN FURTHER TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

VFR WITH FEW TO SCT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
SUN AFTERNOON-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT.
THU...VFR WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA IN
A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. BOTH GFS/NAM 4SHOW A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
PASSING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...SO THINK THE OCEAN WATERS COULD
SEE MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING ON...WITH LINGERING
5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY. HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCA FROM 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER A HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE DAY TUE...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES ON
THE EASTERN SOUND AND/OR OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KBUF 071726
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1226 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...TEMPS ALREADY ABOUT FIVE DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
PROGS AT 16Z WEST OF THE GENESEE RIVER AS WE CONTINUE TO ENJOY
CLASSIC SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WARMING UNDER NEAR FULL SUNSHINE THIS
BEAUTIFUL LATE FALL DAY. MOST OF MIXING IS ALREADY DONE SO TEMPS
SHOULD ONLY INCREASE A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT WILL ISSUE ANOTHER
UPDATE TO SHOW MAXES UP INTO MID 60S IN FAVORED AREAS FROM ERIE TO
BUFFALO AND TO L60S OVER TO ROCHESTER. SHOULD ALSO SEE SIMILAR
WARMING TO NEAR 60 IN WATERTOWN AREA AS SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE GETS
UNDERWAY OVER THERE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISC FOLLOWS....

AN UNSEASONABLY NICE DAY IN STORE TODAY...PERHAPS NATURES ATTEMPT
TO MAKE UP FOR OCTOBER...WHICH WAS MORE CLOUDY AND COOL THAN
NORMAL. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO
20 MPH TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT DYNAMICS APPEAR GENERALLY WEAK...WITH ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE
REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES... WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 60S AT
MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL LAKES. MONDAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AS 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +10C.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER INLAND ELEVATIONS
     WITH EVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING IT CLOSE TO 60. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE NOW COOLER LAKES WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
CORRESPONDING WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE BRIEF INTERRUPTIONS TO THE RIDGE
AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EVERY FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MOST DAYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL
GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS BY DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A WASHING OUT COLD FRONT CROSSES. WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS AT 2000 FT...HOWEVER THEY DO NOT MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THUS...DO CARRY LLWS FOR TONIGHT AT TAF SITES.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE
3000 FT...WITH SOME LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. EXPECT A DRY FROPA. SKIES CLEAR AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING...VFR RESUMES...WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FAR EASTERN NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT ON LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE ACTION ON THE CANADIAN SHORE...BUT EVEN WITH THE WINDS
OFFSHORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR THE WATERS TO BECOME RATHER CHOPPY WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS.

EXPECT THE WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SFM
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...TJP

000
FXUS61 KBUF 071642
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1142 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...TEMPS ALREADY ABOUT FIVE DEG WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
PROGS AT 16Z WEST OF THE GENESEE RIVER AS WE CONTINUE TO ENJOY
CLASSIC SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WARMING UNDER NEAR FULL SUNSHINE THIS
BEAUTIFUL LATE FALL DAY. MOST OF MIXING IS ALREADY DONE SO TEMPS
SHOULD ONLY INCREASE A FEW MORE DEGREES BUT WILL ISSUE ANOTHER
UPDATE TO SHOW MAXES UP INTO MID 60S IN FAVORED AREAS FROM ERIE TO
BUFFALO AND TO L60S OVER TO ROCHESTER. SHOULD ALSO SEE SIMILAR
WARMING TO NEAR 60 IN WATERTOWN AREA AS SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE GETS
UNDERWAY OVER THERE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISC FOLLOWS....

AN UNSEASONABLY NICE DAY IN STORE TODAY...PERHAPS NATURES ATTEMPT
TO MAKE UP FOR OCTOBER...WHICH WAS MORE CLOUDY AND COOL THAN
NORMAL. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO
20 MPH TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT DYNAMICS APPEAR GENERALLY WEAK...WITH ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE
REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES... WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 60S AT
MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL LAKES. MONDAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AS 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +10C.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER INLAND ELEVATIONS
     WITH EVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING IT CLOSE TO 60. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE NOW COOLER LAKES WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
CORRESPONDING WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE BRIEF INTERRUPTIONS TO THE RIDGE
AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EVERY FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MOST DAYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL
GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS BY DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A WASHING OUT COLD FRONT CROSSES. WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS AT 2000 FT...HOWEVER THEY DO NOT MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THUS...DO CARRY LLWS FOR TONIGHT AT TAF SITES.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE
3000 FT...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT A DRY FROPA. SKIES
CLEAR AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONTINUES...WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FAR EASTERN NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT ON LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE ACTION ON THE CANADIAN SHORE...BUT EVEN WITH THE WINDS
OFFSHORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR THE WATERS TO BECOME RATHER CHOPPY WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS.

EXPECT THE WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SFM
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
AVIATION...SFM
MARINE...TJP

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071529
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1029 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1029 AM EST SATURDAY...HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO ADJUST CLD
COVER FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. CLD COVER CURRENTLY MVG SLOWLY OVER THE
CWA THIS MORNING. AREAS THAT WERE MSUNNY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
AREA OF CLDS INTO THE AFTNOON HRS. REST OF FORECAST IN GD SHAPE.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL AS RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SCT080-100 BECOMING BKN060-080
OVER NRN NY TODAY AND ACROSS VT THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 KFT TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE AT KBTV. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DUE COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR AT TIMES IN SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHWRS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JN/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 071430
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
930 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. MID CLOUD DECK
ACROSS CENTRAL NY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND SHOULD CLEAR
OUR ERN LK ONTARIO COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...NEAR FULL SUNSHINE OVER
THE WEST ALREADY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MIXING WITH ANOTHER PATCH OF HIGHER CLOUD ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALREADY A FEW DEG HIGHER
THAN PROGGED...WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPING NEAR LAKE ERIE...SO
NUDGED READINGS UP A DEG OR TWO INTO L60S IN FAVORED AREAS FROM
ERIE TO BUFFALO THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES. PREV DISC FOLLOWS...

AN UNSEASONABLY NICE DAY IN STORE TODAY...PERHAPS NATURES ATTEMPT
TO MAKE UP FOR OCTOBER...WHICH WAS MORE CLOUDY AND COOL THAN
NORMAL. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10
TO 20 MPH TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT DYNAMICS APPEAR GENERALLY WEAK...WITH ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE
REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES... WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 60S AT
MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL LAKES. MONDAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AS 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +10C.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER INLAND ELEVATIONS
     WITH EVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING IT CLOSE TO 60. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE NOW COOLER LAKES WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
CORRESPONDING WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE BRIEF INTERRUPTIONS TO THE RIDGE
AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EVERY FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MOST DAYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL
GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS BY DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-LEVEL DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL EXIT OUR ERN LK
ONTARIO REGION..INCLUDING KART...BY 17Z...OTHERWISE FINE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGHOUT.

FOR TONIGHT...A WASHING OUT COLD FRONT CROSSES. WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS AT 2000 FT...HOWEVER THEY DO NOT MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THUS...DO CARRY LLWS FOR TONIGHT AT TAF SITES.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE
3000 FT...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT A DRY FROPA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY..VFR...BUT LOCAL IFR IN EARLY MORNING SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FAR EASTERN NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT ON LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE ACTION ON THE CANADIAN SHORE...BUT EVEN WITH THE WINDS
OFFSHORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR THE WATERS TO BECOME RATHER CHOPPY WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS.

EXPECT THE WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/SFM
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL/SFM
MARINE...TJP

000
FXUS61 KBGM 071416
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
916 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...LIKELY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 910 AM...BATCH OF WAA-INDUCED MID-DECK PROGRSSING ACRS
THE BGM CWA. FOR WRN ZONES...WILL CALL IT MOSTLY SUNNY. ACRS
CNTRL ZONES WHERE THE BKN-OVC DECK IS CRNTLY LOCATED...XPCT SKIES
TO BCM MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. ACRS FAR ERN ZONES...WILL JUST CALL
IT PARTLY SUNNY TO ACCOUNT FOR A PERIOD OF CLDS WHICH IS LIKELY
LATE THIS MRNG INTO THE MIDDAY HRS. WILL ALSO NUDGE DOWN MAXES
ERN ZONES A TAD. NOTE THAT 12Z BUF SNDG INDICATED +11C AT
925...MIXED DOWN WITH FULL SUN THAT WOULD GET MAXES INTO THE L60S
ACRS FAR WRN ZONES...BUT WITH CLDS AND EXPECTATIONS THAT WE`LL SEE
SOME CLD THERE THIS AFTN...WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE U50S THERE.
PREV BLO...

UPDATED AT 655 AM...UPDATED CLD GRIDS ZONES TO SHOW PSSG OF BKN-
OVC MID DECK...AND INDICATED A PERIOD OF CLDS THIS MRNG IN THE
ZONES. PREV BLO...

IR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID TO UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE CWA. THIS IS SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE...BUT WILL ALSO MEAN THAT IT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE CWA
IN THE MORNING ALLOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMING TREND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EVEN
WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST
IN WARMING THINGS UP AS IT KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THE HIGH
REBOUNDS SUNDAY VERY QUICKLY AND WILL LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
FRONT...SO HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF PRECIP OUT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE FRONT WILL NOT CROSS THE CWA UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A WEAK COLD FNT PASSES BY STRONG
HIPRES. FNT WILL GENERATE SOME CLDS AND A CHC OF SHWRS ON
TUE...FLWD BY MAINLY CLR CONDS AS A SFC HI AND UPR RDG BLD IN FOR
WED AND THU. TEMPS SHD BE NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML FOR THE PD. HPC
GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT/BKN MID DECK
WILL CLEAR TERMINALS BY 15Z WITH JUST CIRRUS REST OF TODAY. OVERNIGHT
WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH REGION THIS EVENING THEN CROSS FA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING CIGS AROUND 4K FT ACROSS TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS LATER THIS MORNING, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN W/SW TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KOKX 071339
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
839 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST IN TANDEM WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE DAY GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN AND AROUND NYC.
LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION ENSUES TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER BY THIS AFT THAN A DAY AGO. STILL THOUGH...THIS
TRANSLATES TO TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH A MIXED
LAYER ONLY UP TO 925 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY
TRANSPARENT WITH SUNNY SKIES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROF ALONG THE US/BORDER RACES EASTWARD TONIGHT TO
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A SFC TROF
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO PCPN FORECAST.

A DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S SUN THRU TUE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH RIDGING
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. ITS NOT UNTIL LATE MON THAT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION.

SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
TUE AFT/EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. POPS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. WINDS WILL BACK SW-S BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT COASTAL TERMINALS AND 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE. A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR GUSTS 15-18 KT AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
SUN-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA IN
A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. BOTH GFS/NAM 4SHOW A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
PASSING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...SO THINK THE OCEAN WATERS COULD
SEE MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING ON...WITH LINGERING
5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY. HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCA FROM 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER A HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE DAY TUE...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES ON
THE EASTERN SOUND AND/OR OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KBGM 071156
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...LIKELY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED AT 655 AM...UPDATED CLD GRIDS ZONES TO SHOW PSSG OF BKN-
OVC MID DECK...AND INDICATED A PERIOD OF CLDS THIS MRNG IN THE
ZONES. PREV BLO...

IR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID TO UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE CWA. THIS IS SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE...BUT WILL ALSO MEAN THAT IT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE CWA
IN THE MORNING ALLOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMING TREND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EVEN
WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST
IN WARMING THINGS UP AS IT KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THE HIGH
REBOUNDS SUNDAY VERY QUICKLY AND WILL LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
FRONT...SO HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF PRECIP OUT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE FRONT WILL NOT CROSS THE CWA UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A WEAK COLD FNT PASSES BY STRONG
HIPRES. FNT WILL GENERATE SOME CLDS AND A CHC OF SHWRS ON
TUE...FLWD BY MAINLY CLR CONDS AS A SFC HI AND UPR RDG BLD IN FOR
WED AND THU. TEMPS SHD BE NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML FOR THE PD. HPC
GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT/BKN MID DECK
WILL CLEAR TERMINALS BY 15Z WITH JUST CIRRUS REST OF TODAY. OVERNIGHT
WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH REGION THIS EVENING THEN CROSS FA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING CIGS AROUND 4K FT ACROSS TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS LATER THIS MORNING, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN W/SW TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBTV 071153
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
653 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL AS RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SCT080-100 BECOMING BKN060-080
OVER NRN NY TODAY AND ACROSS VT THIS EVENING. CIGS MAY LOWER TO
AROUND 4000 KFT TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE AT KBTV. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND DIMINISH TO 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DUE COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR AT TIMES IN SCT RAIN/SNOW
SHWRS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 071150
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
650 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...LIKELY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID TO UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE CWA. THIS IS SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE...BUT WILL ALSO MEAN THAT IT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE CWA
IN THE MORNING ALLOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMING TREND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EVEN
WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST
IN WARMING THINGS UP AS IT KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THE HIGH
REBOUNDS SUNDAY VERY QUICKLY AND WILL LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
FRONT...SO HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF PRECIP OUT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE FRONT WILL NOT CROSS THE CWA UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A WEAK COLD FNT PASSES BY STRONG
HIPRES. FNT WILL GENERATE SOME CLDS AND A CHC OF SHWRS ON
TUE...FLWD BY MAINLY CLR CONDS AS A SFC HI AND UPR RDG BLD IN FOR
WED AND THU. TEMPS SHD BE NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML FOR THE PD. HPC
GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT/BKN MID DECK
WILL CLEAR TERMINALS BY 15Z WITH JUST CIRRUS REST OF TODAY. OVERNIGHT
WEAK SFC TROF WILL APPROACH REGION THIS EVENING THEN CROSS FA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING CIGS AROUND 4K FT ACROSS TERMINALS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

S-SE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS LATER THIS MORNING, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN W/SW TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KBUF 071148
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UNSEASONABLY NICE DAY IN STORE TODAY...PERHAPS NATURES ATTEMPT TO
MAKE UP FOR OCTOBER...WHICH WAS MORE CLOUDY AND COOL THAN NORMAL.
TODAY IS SET UP BY WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TODAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS (BUFFALO
POSSIBLY ONE OF THEM) TOPPING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT DYNAMICS APPEAR GENERALLY WEAK...WITH ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE
REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES... WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 60S AT
MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL LAKES. MONDAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AS 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +10C.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER INLAND ELEVATIONS
     WITH EVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING IT CLOSE TO 60. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE NOW COOLER LAKES WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
CORRESPONDING WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE BRIEF INTERRUPTIONS TO THE RIDGE
AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EVERY FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MOST DAYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL
GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS BY DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-LEVEL DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION...PROVIDING A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL CIGS. 12Z
BUF SOUNDING SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KTS AT AROUND 1000
FT...FALLING JUST SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA. SOME OF THESE WINDS
SHOULD MIX DOWN AS GUSTS STARTING MID-MORNING.

AFTERWARDS...SKIES GO SKC-SCT...WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...A WASHING OUT COLD FRONT CROSSES. WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS AT 2000 FT...HOWEVER THEY DO NOT MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THUS...DO CARRY LLWS FOR TONIGHT AT TAF SITES.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE
3000 FT...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT A DRY FROPA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY..VFR...BUT LOCAL IFR IN EARLY MORNING SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FAR EASTERN NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT ON LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE ACTION ON THE CANADIAN SHORE...BUT EVEN WITH THE WINDS
OFFSHORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR THE WATERS TO BECOME RATHER CHOPPY WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS.

EXPECT THE WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...TJP

000
FXUS61 KOKX 071146
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST. THE FREEZE
WARNING WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NASSAU COUNTY BASED ON MESONET
STATIONS ALL REPORTING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. BY THE TIME
ALL SAID AND DONE...THE GROWING SEASON WILL HAVE ENDED FOR ALL BUT
NYC AND HUDSON COUNTY NJ...WHICH HAVE AN AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE
DATE OF NOV 10.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST IN TANDEM WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE DAY GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN AND AROUND NYC.
LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION ENSUES TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER BY THIS AFT THAN A DAY AGO. STILL THOUGH...THIS
TRANSLATES TO TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH A MIXED
LAYER ONLY UP TO 925 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY
TRANSPARENT WITH SUNNY SKIES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROF ALONG THE US/BORDER RACES EASTWARD TONIGHT TO
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A SFC TROF
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO PCPN FORECAST.

A DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S SUN THRU TUE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH RIDGING
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. ITS NOT UNTIL LATE MON THAT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION.

SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
TUE AFT/EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. POPS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. WINDS WILL BACK SW-S BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT COASTAL TERMINALS AND 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE. A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR GUSTS 15-18 KT AT THE NYC AREA TERMINALS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
SUN-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA IN
A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH. BOTH GFS/NAM 4SHOW A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET ALSO
PASSING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...SO THINK THE OCEAN WATERS COULD
SEE MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING ON...WITH LINGERING
5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY. HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR TONIGHT
TO WARRANT SCA FROM 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER A HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE DAY TUE...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES ON
THE EASTERN SOUND AND/OR OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&


.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ072>076.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-077>081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ003>005-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/WTB
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KALY 071139
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.

AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.

DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO COOL THINGS OFF.

EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS WELL
TO OUR EAST...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PCPN WILL END...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS...RATHER THAN CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.

WILL KEEP A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40
TO 50 WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30...THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...AND THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ASIDE FROM A LITTLE MVFR POSSIBLE AT KGFL THROUGH 13Z...NO AVIATION
WEATHER RELATED ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR A
SOUTHERLY WIND TO INCREASE TO NEAR 10KTS BY AFTERNOON...UNRESTRICTED
VISIBLITY AND PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

BY THE OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...MVFR FOG IS
EXPECTED AT KGFL...POSSIBLY GOING DOWN TO IFR FOG AT TIMES. LITTLE
OR NO FOG IS EXPECTED AT THE TWO OTHER TERMINALS. A SOUTH WIND WILL
DIMINISH AT KPOU/KGFL BUT WILL PERSIST AROUND 6KTS AT KALB.


OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUE...MVFR...CIG. CHC -SHRAS.
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
AVIATION...HWJIV

000
FXUS61 KOKX 071006
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
506 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF
MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC RIDGE DRAPED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST. THE FREEZE
WARNING WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NASSAU COUNTY BASED ON MESONET
STATIONS ALL REPORTING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. BY THE TIME
ALL SAID AND DONE...THE GROWING SEASON WILL HAVE ENDED FOR ALL BUT
NYC METRO...WHICH HAS AN AVERAGE FIRST AUTUMN FREEZE DATE OF NOV
10.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST IN TANDEM WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION. SFC WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE DAY GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN AND AROUND NYC.
LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION ENSUES TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS SOME 10
DEGREES WARMER BY THIS AFT THAN A DAY AGO. STILL THOUGH...THIS
TRANSLATES TO TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH A MIXED
LAYER ONLY UP TO 925 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY
TRANSPARENT WITH SUNNY SKIES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE TROF ALONG THE US/BORDER RACES EASTWARD TONIGHT TO
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL SEND A SFC TROF
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING BACK
INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO PCPN FORECAST.

A DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 60S SUN THRU TUE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH RIDGING
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. ITS NOT UNTIL LATE MON THAT THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION.

SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.
SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO BE DELAYED UNTIL
TUE AFT/EVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. POPS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TODAY...WITH WINDS BACKING SW-S AND INCREASING TO 10-12 KT
COASTAL TERMINALS AND 5-10 KT BY LATE DAY. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
TONIGHT-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA IN
A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN ITSELF AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
ALSO PASSING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...SO THINK THE OCEAN WATERS
COULD SEE MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING ON...WITH
LINGERING 5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME
HOURS ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS EXISTS FOR
TONIGHT...SO WILL ISSUE OCEAN SCA FROM 11 PM THROUGH 7 AM.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
DAY TUE. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FROPA...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES ON THE EASTERN
SOUND AND/OR OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&


.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ072>076.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ071-077>081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ003>005-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW/WTB
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...DW

000
FXUS61 KBGM 070918
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
418 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLER OF THE WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...LIKELY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S ON
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID TO UPPER DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND APPROACHING THE CWA. THIS IS SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD
OF SCHEDULE...BUT WILL ALSO MEAN THAT IT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE CWA
IN THE MORNING ALLOWING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY BRINGING SUNNY SKIES
AND A WARMING TREND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EVEN
WITH A TROUGH THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW
NIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND MAY ACTUALLY ASSIST
IN WARMING THINGS UP AS IT KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED. THE HIGH
REBOUNDS SUNDAY VERY QUICKLY AND WILL LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
FRONT...SO HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF PRECIP OUT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE FRONT WILL NOT CROSS THE CWA UNTIL
AROUND 18Z TUESDAY AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A WEAK COLD FNT PASSES BY STRONG
HIPRES. FNT WILL GENERATE SOME CLDS AND A CHC OF SHWRS ON
TUE...FLWD BY MAINLY CLR CONDS AS A SFC HI AND UPR RDG BLD IN FOR
WED AND THU. TEMPS SHD BE NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML FOR THE PD. HPC
GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE
FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS WITH SCT/BKN CIRRUS, FOLLOWED BY CIGS AROUND
4K FT LATE IN TAF PERIOD AS WEAK SFC TROF APPROACHES.

LGT AND VRBL WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S-SE INCRG TO 10-15 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AROUND 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KALY 070913
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
415 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.

AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.

DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER AN UNSEASONABLY MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REACH THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO COOL THINGS OFF.

EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT UNTIL IT IS WELL
TO OUR EAST...THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND PCPN WILL END...SO HAVE OPTED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS...RATHER THAN CONCENTRATE HIGHER POPS
DURING A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT
HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING.

WILL KEEP A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF PCPN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL BE DUE TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WITH THE HIGHS WEDNESDAY 40
TO 50 WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 20 TO 30...THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S...AND THE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST
TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S...THE LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID
30S...THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KGFL WHERE MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME  SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBUF 070849
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UNSEASONABLY NICE DAY IN STORE TODAY...PERHAPS NATURES ATTEMPT TO
MAKE UP FOR OCTOBER...WHICH WAS MORE CLOUDY AND COOL THAN NORMAL.
TODAY IS SET UP BY WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TODAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS (BUFFALO
POSSIBLY ONE OF THEM) TOPPING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT DYNAMICS APPEAR GENERALLY WEAK...WITH ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE
REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES... WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 60S AT
MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL LAKES. MONDAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AS 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +10C.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER INLAND ELEVATIONS
     WITH EVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING IT CLOSE TO 60. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE NOW COOLER LAKES WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
CORRESPONDING WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE BRIEF INTERRUPTIONS TO THE RIDGE
AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EVERY FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MOST DAYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL
GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS BY DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-LEVEL DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS
THE REGION...PROVIDING A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL CIGS. WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE TO 30 KTS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH SHORT OF
LLWS CRITERIA FOR THE TAFS...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AND SHIFT
MORE SW BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FT THROUGH 15Z.

AFTERWARDS...SKIES GO SKC-SCT...WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...A WASHING OUT COLD FRONT CROSSES. WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KTS AT 2000 FT...HOWEVER THEY DO NOT MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THUS...DO CARRY LLWS FOR TONIGHT AT TAF SITES.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF BKN CIGS WITH THE FROPA...PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE
3000 FT...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT A DRY FROPA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY..VFR...BUT LOCAL IFR IN EARLY MORNING SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FAR EASTERN NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT ON LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE ACTION ON THE CANADIAN SHORE...BUT EVEN WITH THE WINDS
OFFSHORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR THE WATERS TO BECOME RATHER CHOPPY WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS.

EXPECT THE WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
         TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...TJP

000
FXUS61 KOKX 070840
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRES GRAD WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS EVE...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. STRATO- CU
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO COLDEST LEVELS SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS IS.

LWR 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE FAR OUTLYING AREAS BY MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL RIDGE ALONG THE TX COAST WILL DRIFT EWD ALONG THE GULF
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEIGHTS
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. NRN STREAM STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
ACROSS CANADA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO FAIR WX WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ON
SAT WITH A WARMING TREND ON SUN AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS EWD. HIGHS
SUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABV CLIMO AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND TRENDING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.  WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
SETTING UP AN INVERSION THAT SHOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 925 MB.  TEMPS
AT THAT LEVEL ARE FORECAST AROUND 12C...EQUIVALENT TO 4-5C AT 850
MB.  SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 60 OR LOW
60S IN PARTS OF CT AND LONG ISLAND.

MAIN WEATHER PLAYER IS A COLD FRONT THAT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS SPEEDS UP FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE GLOBAL AND ECMWF ADVERTISE TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY NIGHT.
WITH THE INCREASED RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WE WILL EXPAND THE PERIOD OF
CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT.  POPS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR.  TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TODAY...WITH WINDS BACKING SW-S AND INCREASING TO 10-12 KT
COASTAL TERMINALS AND 5-10 KT BY LATE DAY. UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
TONIGHT-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDS TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
PLACING THE AREA IN A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN ITSELF AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A 30-35 KT
LOW LEVEL JET ALSO PASSING OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...SO THINK THE
OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS FROM LATE EVENING
ON...WITH LINGERING 5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE EARLY
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS EXISTS
FOR TONIGHT...SO WILL ISSUE OCEAN SCA FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 6
AM SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA...
WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
DAY TUE. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FROPA...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES ON THE EASTERN
SOUND AND/OR OCEAN WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT-WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ072>077.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ071-
     078>081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ003>005-
     011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GOODMAN

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070839
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...A NICE START TO THE FIRST FULL
WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT TO SEE GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
RIGHT AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR TODAY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN WHERE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SKIRTING
EASTWARD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO OVERALL NOT LOOKING FOR ANY REAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
OUT OF THIS...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. PTYPE MAY BE A SLIGHT CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT IF
THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION...AS MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INDICATE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
COLD AIR (AOB FREEZING) REMAINS TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL
HEDGE TOWARDS KEEPING PTYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AS SURFACE TEMPS
MAY STAY RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH AN
INCREASING CLOUD DECK ALOFT. BY SUNDAY MORNING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HAS EXITED THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL
FEATURE SUNNY SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS 850HPA TEMPS
WARM TO +5-10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EST SATURDAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT...A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40. THEREFORE...ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL AS RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT TRAVERSES THE
AREA. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION GOING. AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BEHIND THE FRONT ON
INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY...WHILE TEMPS REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z
THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KMPV. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCT060-080 DURING SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...EXCEPT BECOMING BKN060-080 AT KMSS/KSLK.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU 12Z...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND
INCREASING TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE AT KBTV/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER
GENERAL REGIME OF HIGH PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING DUE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHWRS TUES
NIGHT BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBUF 070815
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
315 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UNSEASONABLY NICE DAY IN STORE TODAY...PERHAPS NATURES ATTEMPT TO
MAKE UP FOR OCTOBER...WHICH WAS MORE CLOUDY AND COOL THAN NORMAL.
TODAY IS SET UP BY WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TODAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS (BUFFALO
POSSIBLY ONE OF THEM) TOPPING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. EXPECT A BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN MOST AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CROSSES
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WITH THE
FRONT...BUT DYNAMICS APPEAR GENERALLY WEAK...WITH ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE
REESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES... WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 60S AT
MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD STAY WELL
TO OUR NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL LAKES. MONDAY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AS 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +10C.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER INLAND ELEVATIONS
...WITH EVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING IT CLOSE TO 60. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE NOW COOLER LAKES WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
CORRESPONDING WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE BRIEF INTERRUPTIONS TO THE RIDGE
AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EVERY FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MOST DAYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY STILL
GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS BY DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY..VFR...BUT LOCAL IFR IN EARLY MORNING SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY
FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL GENERATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FAR EASTERN NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT ON LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WAVE ACTION ON THE CANADIAN SHORE...BUT EVEN WITH THE WINDS
OFFSHORE...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE
TO POTENTIAL FOR THE WATERS TO BECOME RATHER CHOPPY WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS.

EXPECT THE WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS
FRONT WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST
         TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/TJP
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...TJP

000
FXUS61 KALY 070800
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
300 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING MILDER AIR OUR WAY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE NOTICEABLE BY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 300 AM...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION WITH JUST
A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE WIND HAS GONE CALM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TUMBLED TO THE 20S. THESE READINGS WILL DIP DOWN A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNRISE.

AFTER A COLD AND FROSTY START...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
NICELY ALOFT...FROM ABOUT -6C AT THE H850 LEVEL TO ABOUT +6C BY
DAY/S END. HOWEVER...INITIALLY...AN DEEP INVERSION WILL HAVE TO BE
DISPLACED SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM AS FAST AT THE
SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO
MITIGATE THE INITIAL WARMUP. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...EXCEPT MORE SO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE REGION WIDE. A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE...SO
READINGS WILL NOT DROP OFF ALL THAT MUCH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING COULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE 30S ABOVE FREEZING WILL BE THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY CROSS THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK WITH A MINOR WIND SHIFT AND A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION.

DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF
MILDER ON SUNDAY AND H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...MIXING LEVELS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN VALLEY LOCATIONS...50 TO
55 HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WIND WILL BE WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

ON SUNDAY...THERE WAS A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
THE PROBLEM IS WHETHER OR NOT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE BREEZE SHOULD PERSIST AND AT THIS POINT A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF MILD H850
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LONG NOVEMBER NIGHT...IT SEEMED TO US THAT
THE MET MOS LOOKED A BIT TOO WARM. LEANED WITH COLDER MAV GUIDANCE
EXCEPT IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND HIGHER TERRAIN... WHERE A SOUTHERLY
BREEZE MIGHT REMAIN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED
VALLEYS...LOOKS FOR LOWS AROUND FREEZING...STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR.

BY MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
OF AROUND +10C TO SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S FROM ABOUT
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...AND WELL INTO THE 50S EVEN UP TO
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS BRINGING A CHC OF
PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. TO START THE PERIOD...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONTINUITY AMONG
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. ECMWF
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
MOVING PRECIP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY NIGHT...DRYING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE 2KFT...AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BEGINNING
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.5KFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAX TEMPS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...QUICKLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROM THERE...MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...DECREASING TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW
30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KGFL WHERE MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME  SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLEASE NOTE...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED. WE WILL
NO LONGER ISSUE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...NFDRS FORECAST (FWM)
AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT (FWF) UNTIL EARLY NEXT SPRING.
KEEP IN MIND...OUR FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POPULATED
TWICE A DAY (MORNING AND EVENING) AND SPOT FORECASTS WILL BE
AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070616
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH
OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER...INTO
MIDWEEK...GIVING THE REGION ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EST FRIDAY...VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BECOME LIMITED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THUS DIMINISHING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES OVER OVERNIGHT AND
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TWEAKS...
OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE S AND E OF THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA ON INCR WSW
FLOW. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AS THE AFTNOON PROGRESSES...
ENHANCED BY APPROACHING WK FRNTL BOUNDRY. BUFKIT HINTS AT
POTENTIAL TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH GOING INTO SAT NGT. SEVERAL
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED W/ FRONT WELL NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA. W/ MOST DYNAMIC NEAR LOW...AND LOW MDL
QPF...EXPECTING NO MAJOR ISSUE WITH FRNT. WILL GRAZE NORTHERN
BORDER ZONES AND WILL KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE. INCR TEMPS OVERNGT
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY/MOST PRECIP TO REMAIN AS --RW W/ ANY CHANCE FOR
A FLURRY IN FAR NE VT SUN MORN. W FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
WILL SHIFT BACK TO WSW AS RIDGE IN PLACE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL GO W/ TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABV MDL GUIDANCE TO ACCT FOR STRONG
WAA...BUT FOR SUN NGT...APPROACHING CLDS FROM ANOTHER WK FRNT MAY
HAMPER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EST FRIDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
WITH JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 5C AND MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AS MAIN DYNAMICS STAY TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL MAINLY AS RAIN...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROPA...AND WITH
THE FORECAST REGION UNDER NORTH FLOW MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY...BACKED OFF MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS
NUMBERS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THEN A SECOND FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 10Z
THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KMPV. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCT060-080 DURING SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...EXCEPT BECOMING BKN060-080 AT KMSS/KSLK.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU 12Z...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AND
INCREASING TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE AT KBTV/KMSS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER
GENERAL REGIME OF HIGH PRESSURE. A PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING DUE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES
TUESDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN SCT SNOW SHWRS TUES
NIGHT BECOMING VFR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...RJS

000
FXUS61 KBGM 070553
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED OVERHEAD AND PUSHED NEARLY ALL OF THE LOW
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR REGION. IN THE CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED FAST AND IN MANY
AREAS ARE BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE THE
APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON TRENDS AND CURRENT DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 20S. WE SHOULD BE BOTTOMING OUT HERE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER TONIGHT WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY BY SUNRISE. FIGURING GENRALLY LOW-MID 20S WILL COVER IT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH EXPECTATIONS THAT SOME OF OUR NORMALLY
COLDEST SPOTS MAY CRACK INTO THE UPR TEENS.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAIRLY QUIET PTRN FOR NOVEMBER FOR THESE PARTS WITH GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WEAK S/WV`S PASSING BY. MDLS IN AGREEEMNT
THAT ONE WILL PASS SAT NGT...PUSHING THRU A WEAK FNTL BNDRY. XPCT
A BAND OF CLDS WITH THIS FNT...AND PSBLY AN ISOLD -SHRA...BUT ALL
IN ALL NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON THE SENSIBLE WX. CLEARING SKIES XPTCD
BEHIND THE FNT BY SUNDAY MRNG WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PC SKIES
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. CLDS ASSCD WITH NXT FNTL SYSTEM MAY APRCH
FAR NW ZONES LATE MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MAXES INTO THE L60S MANY AREAS ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A WEAK COLD FNT PASSES BY STRONG
HIPRES. FNT WILL GENERATE SOME CLDS AND A CHC OF SHWRS ON
TUE...FLWD BY MAINLY CLR CONDS AS A SFC HI AND UPR RDG BLD IN FOR
WED AND THU. TEMPS SHD BE NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML FOR THE PD. HPC
GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER SUNRISE
FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS WITH SCT/BKN CIRRUS, FOLLOWED BY CIGS AROUND
4K FT LATE IN TAF PERIOD AS WEAK SFC TROF APPROACHES.

LGT AND VRBL WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S-SE INCRG TO 10-15 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AROUND 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...RRM

000
FXUS61 KALY 070526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1225 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT A LITTLE QUICKER AS LATEST SAT PICS SHOW AREA OF STRATO
CU SHRINKING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES AS H8 TEMPS -5
TO -8 C ACRS FA THIS EVENING AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND A FRESH LIGHT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS MOST OF THE FA.

THE FOLLOWING IS FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 429 PM EST...
WALL OF CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME BREAKS AND PATCHES OF CLEAR SKY WEST AND
UPWIND OF THE REGION WHICH ARE LIKELY TO COME ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE MIN
TEMPERATURES...BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS
OBSERVED DEWPOINTS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING OR OVER
NIGHT AS NOTHING INDICATED ON ANY OBS UPSTREAM.

USED ADJUSTED MET/MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS WITH SOME SMOOTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AND NCEP ANALYSIS INDICATE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS AND MET/MOS FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES. TIME SERIES PROFILE INDICATES WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SATURDAY...BUT EVEN IF IT PANS OUT WE WOULD STILL GET
FILTERED SUN. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TO THE LOW 50S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 8 TO 12 MPH.

SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. IT WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S.

WITH A WARMER START...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COOLER REGIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO THE LOW 60S IN THE HUDSON
AND LOWER HOUSATONIC RIVER VALLEYS.

IT WILL CONTINUE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS BRINGING A CHC OF
PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. TO START THE PERIOD...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONTINUITY AMONG
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. ECMWF
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
MOVING PRECIP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY NIGHT...DRYING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE 2KFT...AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BEGINNING
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.5KFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAX TEMPS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...QUICKLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROM THERE...MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...DECREASING TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW
30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KGFL WHERE MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IN FOG. NOT
CERTAIN ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME  SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED AS A TEMPO
GROUP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY CALM THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING SATURDAY.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
LATE SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES RH
VALUES WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 MPH. UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE RH WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX ACROSS THE REGION IS LESS
THAN 200.

THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON ENDS TODAY. THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED...ALONG
WITH THE TABULAR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS (FWF) AND THE FIRE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS (FWM). THE FIRE WEATHER GRAPHICAL FORECASTS
AND IMAGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AND MAY BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
SITE. SPOT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THE LAST EVENT BROUGHT VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION WHICH CAUSED
A FEW RIVERS TO STOP RECEDING. HOWEVER THEY WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE
LATER TODAY...AND DEFINITELY DO SO AS THINGS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES GO WELL BELOW FREEZING. SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TO MELT
SATURDAY...BUT WHATEVER DOES IS LIKELY TO JUST SEEP INTO THE GROUND
WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TODAY...THE WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/11
SHORT TERM...RCK
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KBUF 070520
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1220 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY
WITH WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE LOWER TEMPS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME 20S OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND WILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25
RANGE...EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH TEENS. MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES MAY PUT A HALT TO THE FALLING TEMPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST SITES WILL ALREADY BE BELOW FORECAST LOWS
SO WILL SHAVE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OFF THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
NIGHT WILL HAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE AREA. A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MID CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN OHIO WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FINE DAY IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S.
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
PICK UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A
WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT...
PRECEDED BY A MODEST THETA-E RIDGE AND PERIOD OF MID LEVEL WAA. WEAK
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW SPRINKLES FROM THIS...BUT CHANCES OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
APPEAR MEAGER. HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND OPTED INSTEAD
FOR A DRY POP WITH MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH SKIES CLEARING BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...
BUT STILL EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY. 850MB
TEMPS REALLY DONT DROP MUCH BEHIND THE MEAGER FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT ECLIPSING 60 WITH MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MONDAY SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
LAKES. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LAKESHORES AS 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +10C. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INLAND...WITH EVEN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING IT CLOSE TO 60. SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE
NOW COOLER LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WATERS WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES IN THE 50S...INCLUDING THE KBUF/KART AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
CORRESPONDING WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE BRIEF INTERRUPTIONS TO THE RIDGE
AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EVERY FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MOST DAYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATEST 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BY A SOLID 12 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z GUIDANCE...AND IS MUCH
WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST WITH ANY SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT CYCLOGENESIS
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FASTER TIMING HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE 12Z GFS AS WELL AS THE NEW 12Z ECMWF JUST NOW COMING IN. THE
TAIL END OF THE 12Z NAM ALSO SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE FASTER TIMING.
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS/ZFP FOR THIS PERIOD TO
INDICATE A FASTER FROPA...WITH POPS COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOD TO THE OLD
FORECAST CONTINUITY...BUT IF THE FASTER TIMING IN MODEL GUIDANCE
HOLDS THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS MOST EMPHATIC WITH ITS SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS BY
DAY 7 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY SOME CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN AND EASTERN INDIANA WILL WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 10Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND ONWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY..VFR...BUT LOCAL IFR IN EARLY MORNING SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST
AND REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY MORNING. SSW RETURN FLOW
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE AND ALSO AT THE EAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO. OFFSHORE COMPONENT ON LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION ON THE CANADIAN SHORE...BUT EVEN WITH
THE WINDS OFFSHORE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THE EAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A LONGER SOUTHERLY FETCH. WILL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NOW GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
EVENT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING LATE. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

000
FXUS61 KBTV 070330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH
OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SKIRTS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER...INTO
MIDWEEK...GIVING THE REGION ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1026 PM EST FRIDAY...VERTICAL DEPTH OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
BECOME LIMITED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THUS DIMINISHING THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES IN
THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE PRONOUNCED DRYING TAKES OVER OVERNIGHT AND
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS IN REAL GOOD
SHAPE AND OTHER THAN SOME MINOR CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TWEAKS...
OVERALL FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE S AND E OF THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA ON INCR WSW
FLOW. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AS THE AFTNOON PROGRESSES...
ENHANCED BY APPROACHING WK FRNTL BOUNDRY. BUFKIT HINTS AT
POTENTIAL TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH GOING INTO SAT NGT. SEVERAL
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED W/ FRONT WELL NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA. W/ MOST DYNAMIC NEAR LOW...AND LOW MDL
QPF...EXPECTING NO MAJOR ISSUE WITH FRNT. WILL GRAZE NORTHERN
BORDER ZONES AND WILL KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE. INCR TEMPS OVERNGT
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY/MOST PRECIP TO REMAIN AS --RW W/ ANY CHANCE FOR
A FLURRY IN FAR NE VT SUN MORN. W FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
WILL SHIFT BACK TO WSW AS RIDGE IN PLACE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL GO W/ TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABV MDL GUIDANCE TO ACCT FOR STRONG
WAA...BUT FOR SUN NGT...APPROACHING CLDS FROM ANOTHER WK FRNT MAY
HAMPER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EST FRIDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
WITH JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 5C AND MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AS MAIN DYNAMICS STAY TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL MAINLY AS RAIN...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROPA...AND WITH
THE FORECAST REGION UNDER NORTH FLOW MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY...BACKED OFF MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS
NUMBERS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THEN A SECOND FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/ISOLATED IFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL SLOW TO
BREAK UP THIS EVENING...THOUGH CLEARING IS DEVELOPING AROUND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT CEILINGS 25-3500 FT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE ALL SITES LIFT TO VFR AND BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY NNW AND WILL BE 8KT OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CIGS AT 060. WIND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 12Z AND INCREASE BY 14Z TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KMSS AND KBTV AFTER 16Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER GENERAL REGIME OF HIGH
PRESSURE. INCREASING CLOUDS HIGH POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV AND
KSLK. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...AMF/MB

000
FXUS61 KOKX 070242
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
942 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRES GRAD WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS EVE...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. STRATO- CU
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO COLDEST LEVELS SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS IS.

LWR 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE FAR OUTLYING AREAS BY MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL RIDGE ALONG THE TX COAST WILL DRIFT EWD ALONG THE GULF
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEIGHTS
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. NRN STREAM STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
ACROSS CANADA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO FAIR WX WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ON
SAT WITH A WARMING TREND ON SUN AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS EWD. HIGHS
SUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABV CLIMO AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND TRENDING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.  WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
SETTING UP AN INVERSION THAT SHOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 925 MB.  TEMPS
AT THAT LEVEL ARE FORECAST AROUND 12C...EQUIVALENT TO 4-5C AT 850
MB.  SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 60 OR LOW
60S IN PARTS OF CT AND LONG ISLAND.

MAIN WEATHER PLAYER IS A COLD FRONT THAT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS SPEEDS UP FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE GLOBAL AND ECMWF ADVERTISE TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY NIGHT.
WITH THE INCREASED RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WE WILL EXPAND THE PERIOD OF
CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT.  POPS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR.  TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. ANY LINGERING CU WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SKC-SCT250 SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH SAT MORNING.
DIURNAL CU WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT SAT...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
SCT AND VFR.

LIGHT NW WINDS IN/AROUND KNYC TERMINALS AND L/V WINDS AT TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF KNYC. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KT STARTING SAT
MORNING...POSSIBLY BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
TUE-WED...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRAD WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES OVER
THE MARITIMES TRACKS TO THE NE.

HI PRES WILL BE CENTERED S OF THE WATERS SAT...THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL TRACK N OF THE WATERS SAT NGT. THE PRES GRAD WILL
INCREASE A BIT WITH SW FLOW RESULTING IN SFC WINDS TO AROUND 20KT
AND SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN. MRGNL SCA POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ERN WATERS.

HI PRES RIDGES NWD ON SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
FT ON THE OCEAN BY AFTN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY. INCREASING NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH SPEEDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ072>077.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ071-
     078>081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ003>005-
     011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KBUF 070224
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
924 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY
WITH WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH A RETURN TO COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS AND FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE LOWER TEMPS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. ALREADY SEEING SOME 20S OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND WILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20 TO 25
RANGE...EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS WITH TEENS. MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES MAY PUT A HALT TO THE FALLING TEMPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MOST SITES WILL ALREADY BE BELOW FORECAST LOWS
SO WILL SHAVE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OFF THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
NIGHT WILL HAVE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE AREA. A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
MID CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO FAR WESTERN OHIO WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z...WITH THE BULK
OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FINE DAY IN STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S.
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
PICK UP INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RACE
QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. A
WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT...
PRECEDED BY A MODEST THETA-E RIDGE AND PERIOD OF MID LEVEL WAA. WEAK
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY ALSO
SEE A FEW SPRINKLES FROM THIS...BUT CHANCES OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
APPEAR MEAGER. HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND OPTED INSTEAD
FOR A DRY POP WITH MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH SKIES CLEARING BY
SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...
BUT STILL EXPECT MUCH OF THE DAY TO AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY. 850MB
TEMPS REALLY DONT DROP MUCH BEHIND THE MEAGER FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT ECLIPSING 60 WITH MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON MONDAY SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW INCREASES AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
LAKES. MONDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY FOR AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LAKESHORES AS 850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +10C. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INLAND...WITH EVEN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING IT CLOSE TO 60. SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE
NOW COOLER LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WATERS WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES IN THE 50S...INCLUDING THE KBUF/KART AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL REMAIN QUITE ZONAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK/BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
CORRESPONDING WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FOR MOST OF THE TIME. THERE WILL BE BRIEF INTERRUPTIONS TO THE RIDGE
AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVES DIG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND
EVERY FEW DAYS. THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE ON MOST DAYS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LATEST 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MOVED UP THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
BY A SOLID 12 HOURS FROM THE PREVIOUS 00Z GUIDANCE...AND IS MUCH
WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST WITH ANY SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT CYCLOGENESIS
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FASTER TIMING HAS SUPPORT FROM
THE 12Z GFS AS WELL AS THE NEW 12Z ECMWF JUST NOW COMING IN. THE
TAIL END OF THE 12Z NAM ALSO SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE FASTER TIMING.
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS/ZFP FOR THIS PERIOD TO
INDICATE A FASTER FROPA...WITH POPS COMING IN MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A NOD TO THE OLD
FORECAST CONTINUITY...BUT IF THE FASTER TIMING IN MODEL GUIDANCE
HOLDS THIS MAY EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BUILDS
HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS MOST EMPHATIC WITH ITS SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS BY
DAY 7 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN NEW YORK AIRFIELDS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND
SHOULD REACH THE KART SITE BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. CLOUDINESS ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTERED OUT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD.

ONCE EASTERN AREAS CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING...ONLY SOME CIRRUS
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. BAND OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN
AND EASTERN INDIANA WILL WORK INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 08Z.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY..VFR...BUT LOCAL IFR IN EARLY MORNING SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEY FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE EAST
AND REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY MORNING. SSW RETURN FLOW
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE AND ALSO AT THE EAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO. OFFSHORE COMPONENT ON LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION ON THE CANADIAN SHORE...BUT EVEN WITH
THE WINDS OFFSHORE A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THIS PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT THE EAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A LONGER SOUTHERLY FETCH. WILL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NOW GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
EVENT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING LATE. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK

000
FXUS61 KBGM 070208
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
908 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED OVERHEAD AND PUSHED NEARLY ALL OF THE LOW
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EAST OF OUR REGION. IN THE CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED FAST AND IN MANY
AREAS ARE BELOW FORECAST MINIMUMS AT THIS TIME. HAVE MADE THE
APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON TRENDS AND CURRENT DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 20S. WE SHOULD BE BOTTOMING OUT HERE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
LATER TONIGHT WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN RISE
SLIGHTLY BY SUNRISE. FIGURING GENRALLY LOW-MID 20S WILL COVER IT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH EXPECTATIONS THAT SOME OF OUR NORMALLY
COLDEST SPOTS MAY CRACK INTO THE UPR TEENS.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FAIRLY QUIET PTRN FOR NOVEMBER FOR THESE PARTS WITH GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW AND A FEW WEAK S/WV`S PASSING BY. MDLS IN AGREEEMNT
THAT ONE WILL PASS SAT NGT...PUSHING THRU A WEAK FNTL BNDRY. XPCT
A BAND OF CLDS WITH THIS FNT...AND PSBLY AN ISOLD -SHRA...BUT ALL
IN ALL NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON THE SENSIBLE WX. CLEARING SKIES XPTCD
BEHIND THE FNT BY SUNDAY MRNG WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PC SKIES
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. CLDS ASSCD WITH NXT FNTL SYSTEM MAY APRCH
FAR NW ZONES LATE MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH
MAXES INTO THE L60S MANY AREAS ON MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A WEAK COLD FNT PASSES BY STRONG
HIPRES. FNT WILL GENERATE SOME CLDS AND A CHC OF SHWRS ON
TUE...FLWD BY MAINLY CLR CONDS AS A SFC HI AND UPR RDG BLD IN FOR
WED AND THU. TEMPS SHD BE NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO NRML FOR THE PD. HPC
GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREA OF 2500-4000 FT CIGS
WILL BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS BY 03Z AS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LGT AND VRBL WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
S-SE INCRG TO 10-15 KTS BY 18Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...
SUN/MON....VFR.
TUE/WED...MVFR DUE TO CIGS AND SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB

000
FXUS61 KALY 070208
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
908 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR BY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND CLEAR
THINGS OUT A LITTLE QUICKER AS LATEST SAT PICS SHOW AREA OF STRATO
CU SHRINKING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES AS H8 TEMPS -5
TO -8 C ACRS FA THIS EVENING AND WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND A FRESH LIGHT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACRS MOST OF THE FA.

THE FOLLOWING IS FROM THE PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 429 PM EST...
WALL OF CLOUDS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME BREAKS AND PATCHES OF CLEAR SKY WEST AND
UPWIND OF THE REGION WHICH ARE LIKELY TO COME ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE MIN
TEMPERATURES...BUT RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS
OBSERVED DEWPOINTS WERE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THIS EVENING OR OVER
NIGHT AS NOTHING INDICATED ON ANY OBS UPSTREAM.

USED ADJUSTED MET/MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS WITH SOME SMOOTHING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AND NCEP ANALYSIS INDICATE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS AND MET/MOS FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES. TIME SERIES PROFILE INDICATES WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SATURDAY...BUT EVEN IF IT PANS OUT WE WOULD STILL GET
FILTERED SUN. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER
40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TO THE LOW 50S IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY 8 TO 12 MPH.

SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. IT WILL NOT
BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S.

WITH A WARMER START...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE COOLER REGIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO THE LOW 60S IN THE HUDSON
AND LOWER HOUSATONIC RIVER VALLEYS.

IT WILL CONTINUE DRY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WITH A COUPLE OF TROUGHS BRINGING A CHC OF
PRECIP MAINLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY. TO START THE PERIOD...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CONTINUITY AMONG
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. ECMWF
THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...
MOVING PRECIP INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE NW PORTIONS OF CWA MONDAY NIGHT...DRYING
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY. WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE 2KFT...AND RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW BEGINNING
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1.5KFT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THE MAX TEMPS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...QUICKLY COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FIRST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FROM THERE...MAX TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...DECREASING TO AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOW
30S THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE KGFL WHERE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AS
VSBYS DROP TO AROUND 5SM WITH SOME MIST FOG. GENERALLY BKN-OVC050
STRATO CU WILL GRADUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS FOR
THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD. ON SATURDAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN WITH
JUST SCT250 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT EXCEPT AT KGFL WHERE
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING. ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO
8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG A STRONG POSSIBILITY.
SUN-WED...VFR...NO WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL AND APPROACH THE DEWPOINT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING TO LESS THAN 5 MPH. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES RH
VALUES WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 6 AND 12 MPH. UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE RH WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX ACROSS THE REGION IS LESS
THAN 200.

THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON ENDS TODAY. THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
OF THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED...ALONG
WITH THE TABULAR FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS (FWF) AND THE FIRE
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS (FWM). THE FIRE WEATHER GRAPHICAL FORECASTS
AND IMAGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED AND MAY BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
SITE. SPOT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

THE LAST EVENT BROUGHT VERY LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION WHICH CAUSED
A FEW RIVERS TO STOP RECEDING. HOWEVER THEY WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE
LATER TODAY...AND DEFINITELY DO SO AS THINGS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES GO WELL BELOW FREEZING. SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TO MELT
SATURDAY...BUT WHATEVER DOES IS LIKELY TO JUST SEEP INTO THE GROUND
WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON THE RIVERS.

ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES TODAY...THE WEATHER
WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCK
NEAR TERM...RCK/11
SHORT TERM...RCK
LONG TERM...KGS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

000
FXUS61 KOKX 070138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
838 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRES GRAD WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS EVE...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. STRATO- CU
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO COLDEST LEVELS SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS IS.

LWR 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE FAR OUTLYING AREAS BY MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL RIDGE ALONG THE TX COAST WILL DRIFT EWD ALONG THE GULF
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEIGHTS
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. NRN STREAM STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
ACROSS CANADA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO FAIR WX WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ON
SAT WITH A WARMING TREND ON SUN AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS EWD. HIGHS
SUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABV CLIMO AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND TRENDING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.  WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
SETTING UP AN INVERSION THAT SHOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 925 MB.  TEMPS
AT THAT LEVEL ARE FORECAST AROUND 12C...EQUIVALENT TO 4-5C AT 850
MB.  SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 60 OR LOW
60S IN PARTS OF CT AND LONG ISLAND.

MAIN WEATHER PLAYER IS A COLD FRONT THAT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS SPEEDS UP FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE GLOBAL AND ECMWF ADVERTISE TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY NIGHT.
WITH THE INCREASED RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WE WILL EXPAND THE PERIOD OF
CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT.  POPS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR.  TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. SCT-BKN CU WILL GIVE WAY TO SKC-
SCT250 CIGS LATER THIS EVENING.

NW WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 4-8 KT AND WILL
BECOME L/V AT TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KNYC. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10
KT STARTING SAT MORNING...POSSIBLY BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.

TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)

KEWR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED...TEST

KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC DIRECTION
     07/00Z 32008KT
     07/01Z 32007KT
     07/02Z 33007KT
     07/03Z 34006KT
     07/04Z 34005KT
     07/05Z 33005KT
     07/06Z 33004KT
     07/07Z 31004KT
     07/08Z VRB03KT
     07/09Z VRB03KT
     07/10Z VRB03KT
     07/11Z VRB03KT

KJFK...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED

KLGA...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED

KTEB...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED

KHPN...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED

KSWF...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED

KISP...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED

KBDR...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED

KGON...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS
ANTICIPATED

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
TUE-WED...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRAD WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES OVER
THE MARITIMES TRACKS TO THE NE.

HI PRES WILL BE CENTERED S OF THE WATERS SAT...THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL TRACK N OF THE WATERS SAT NGT. THE PRES GRAD WILL
INCREASE A BIT WITH SW FLOW RESULTING IN SFC WINDS TO AROUND 20KT
AND SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN. MRGNL SCA POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ERN WATERS.

HI PRES RIDGES NWD ON SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
FT ON THE OCEAN BY AFTN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY. INCREASING NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH SPEEDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ072>077.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ071-
     078>081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ003>005-
     011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...

000
FXUS61 KOKX 070138
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
838 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PRES GRAD WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS EVE...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. STRATO- CU
DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE CWA
OVERNIGHT.

DESPITE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO COLDEST LEVELS SO FAR THIS FALL
SEASON. SO HAVE CONTINUED THE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS IS.

LWR 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE FAR OUTLYING AREAS BY MRNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPR LVL RIDGE ALONG THE TX COAST WILL DRIFT EWD ALONG THE GULF
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEIGHTS
FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. NRN STREAM STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
ACROSS CANADA. THIS TRANSLATES INTO FAIR WX WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ON
SAT WITH A WARMING TREND ON SUN AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS EWD. HIGHS
SUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABV CLIMO AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND 10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND TRENDING SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON.  WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
SETTING UP AN INVERSION THAT SHOULD LIMIT MIXING TO 925 MB.  TEMPS
AT THAT LEVEL ARE FORECAST AROUND 12C...EQUIVALENT TO 4-5C AT 850
MB.  SO MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 60 OR LOW
60S IN PARTS OF CT AND LONG ISLAND.

MAIN WEATHER PLAYER IS A COLD FRONT THAT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS SPEEDS UP FRONTAL PASSAGE TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE GLOBAL AND ECMWF ADVERTISE TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY NIGHT.
WITH THE INCREASED RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WE WILL EXPAND THE PERIOD OF
CHANCE POPS TO INCLUDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT.  POPS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR.  TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SAT. SCT-BKN CU WILL GIVE WAY TO SKC-
SCT250 CIGS LATER THIS EVENING.

NW WINDS AT 8-12 KT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 4-8 KT AND WILL
BECOME L/V AT TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF KNYC. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10
KT STARTING SAT MORNING...POSSIBLY BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SAT NIGHT-MON NIGHT...VFR.
TUE-WED...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRAD WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES OVER
THE MARITIMES TRACKS TO THE NE.

HI PRES WILL BE CENTERED S OF THE WATERS SAT...THEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL TRACK N OF THE WATERS SAT NGT. THE PRES GRAD WILL
INCREASE A BIT WITH SW FLOW RESULTING IN SFC WINDS TO AROUND 20KT
AND SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN. MRGNL SCA POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ERN WATERS.

HI PRES RIDGES NWD ON SUN WITH LGT WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2
FT ON THE OCEAN BY AFTN.

A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY. INCREASING NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH SPEEDS OF 25-30 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ072>077.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ071-
     078>081.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ003>005-
     011.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KBTV 062354
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
STARTING TO CLEAR OUT TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONT SKIRTS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THEREAFTER...INTO MIDWEEK...GIVING THE REGION
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALL THE WHILE DURING THIS TIME ANOTHER
FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...CLD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING UPPER
LOW/FRNT REMAINS OVER THE CWA THIS AFTNOON...AS LGT NORTHERLY WINDS
AND LL INVERSION...KEEP SHIELD MOSTLY INTACT FOR THE AREA.
NORTHERLY FLOW ENHANCED BY RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NY/OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY CREST OVER THE REGION LATE
TNGT. SOME MINOR ECHOES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON LCL RADAR...AND W/
LGT NW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MENTION SOME -SW/FLURRIES FOR DACKS/NC VT
THRU MIDNGT TNGT. NO ACCUM EXPECTED. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MDL
GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR OVERNGT LOWS. A DROP IN TEMPS BFR SUNRISE
COULD OCCUR IF AREA SEES ENOUGH DISSIPATION IN LCL CLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EST FRIDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE S AND E OF THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING HRS SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA ON INCR WSW
FLOW. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AS THE AFTNOON PROGRESSES...
ENHANCED BY APPROACHING WK FRNTL BOUNDRY. BUFKIT HINTS AT
POTENTIAL TO SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH GOING INTO SAT NGT. SEVERAL
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAIN LOW ASSOCIATED W/ FRONT WELL NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA. W/ MOST DYNAMIC NEAR LOW...AND LOW MDL
QPF...EXPECTING NO MAJOR ISSUE WITH FRNT. WILL GRAZE NORTHERN
BORDER ZONES AND WILL KEEP POPS TO SL CHANCE. INCR TEMPS OVERNGT
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY/MOST PRECIP TO REMAIN AS --RW W/ ANY CHANCE FOR
A FLURRY IN FAR NE VT SUN MORN. W FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
WILL SHIFT BACK TO WSW AS RIDGE IN PLACE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH.
WILL GO W/ TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABV MDL GUIDANCE TO ACCT FOR STRONG
WAA...BUT FOR SUN NGT...APPROACHING CLDS FROM ANOTHER WK FRNT MAY
HAMPER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EST FRIDAY...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED
WITH JUST A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 5C AND MORE SUN
THAN CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO
PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT AS MAIN DYNAMICS STAY TO THE
NORTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL MAINLY AS RAIN...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROPA...AND WITH
THE FORECAST REGION UNDER NORTH FLOW MOST OF THE DAY
TUESDAY...BACKED OFF MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MOS
NUMBERS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS
REMAINING CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. THEN A SECOND FRONT WILL SAG
SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THESE PERIODS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/ISOLATED IFR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL SLOW TO
BREAK UP THIS EVENING...THOUGH CLEARING IS DEVELOPING AROUND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. EXPECT CEILINGS 25-3500 FT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE ALL SITES LIFT TO VFR AND BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS
TONIGHT ARE GENERALLY NNW AND WILL BE 8KT OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CIGS AT 060. WIND WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 12Z AND INCREASE BY 14Z TO 8-12KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KMSS AND KBTV AFTER 16Z.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNDER GENERAL REGIME OF HIGH
PRESSURE. INCREASING CLOUDS HIGH POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE TO OUR NORTH. MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL PASSAGE. OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV AND
KSLK. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...AMF/MB