000
FXUS61 KCLE 230107
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
807 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND WEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE HAVE HELPED TO KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS UP ACROSS NW OHIO. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED AN
AREA OF CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED IN AN AREA WEST OF A FREMONT TO
UPPER SANDUSKY LINE. DONT THINK THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
ALL THAT LONG BUT WILL SLOW THE COOLING THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
WORDED THE ZONES TO SAY VARIABLE CLOUDINESS SINCE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL FILTER BACK IN LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO
HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED
UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS.
TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT.

BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SO REMOVED DROPPED POPS FOR TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY. GFS IS BOTH FASTER AND COLDER
THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF. FOR NOW LEANED TOWARD THE NAM FOR
WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE WEST AND ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE NOT CLEAR
BUT THE MODELS HAVE SOME OF THE SAME IDEAS...IT WILL BE COLDER WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS TRACKS IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOING WITH THE
GENERAL TREND OF THE OTHER MODELS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS OHIO.

KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION RAIN ON THURSDAY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND THEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS.  THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
TRIES TO WARM ON THE ECMWF...NONE THE LESS THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NOT THAT MUCH...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY
NOT BE OUT OF CONTROL...OF COURSE THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SEEMS TO
AGREE...FOLLOWING THAT TREND WITH 20 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A
STARTER.

THE GRIDDED MOS AND HPC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE PRETTY
CLOSE...FOLLOWED THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE TOO...MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 6 KNOT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD NOT SEE AS MUCH FOG OVERNIGHT AS THERE WAS
THIS AM. WILL STILL GIVE MOST LOCATIONS A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND BY LATE IN THE
DAY THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THIS PRECIP
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA
FROM A LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE NEARBY BY THAT TIME. E TO SE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ON THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME WIND
MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME NOT
ANTICIPATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND WE HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA

000
FXUS61 KILN 230015
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
715 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST UP THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TUESDAY AND WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S TO N OVERNIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS
N THOUGH KY...CLOUDS TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS
OVER MUCH OF CNTRL OH VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW NORTHERLY
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LLVL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AS WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY/UPR TN VALLEYS LIFTS NE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ON THE NW SIDE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THEN NE STATES THROUGH
EARLY TUES. THE MOISTURE PULLED INTO FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE DUE
TO WRAP AROUND FROM THIS LARGER FEATURE. WHILE ENOUGH WEAK LIFT
AVAILABLE...MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY LIMITED OVER FCST AREA FOR MON.
HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FCST ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S/E OF
INTERSTATE 71...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE BOTH SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK AS A DEEP CLOSED UPR
LOW...PER BOTH GFS/ECMWF...APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS. STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING
QUICKEST...ECMWF IN THE MIDDLE AND THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST. HAVE
HEDGED WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...BRINGING IN LOW CHANCES AHEAD OF
THE SFC FNT BY 18Z TUE...BUT GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME
06-12Z WED.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH LEANING TOWARD GUIDANCE NUMBERS...WITH WARMER
LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC POSITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING
DRY THEREAFTER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
DIGGING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE UPR LVL CLOSED
LOW CONTINUES TO TREK EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...IT WILL
UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO COOL AS
WELL AS ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. LATEST GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...KEEPING MOST OF THE PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
LATEST ECMWF INDICATES THAT PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE MORE IN
THE OFFING. SO AS TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW...HAVE USED THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NE
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP FROM THE NW TOWARD OUR AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
H5 S/W WILL LIFT FM THE TN VLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE UPPER OH
VLY ON MONDAY. CLD LEVELS WILL SLOWLY LOWER OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
STAY VFR THRU 12Z. ELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES AS SFC
HIGH EXITS TO THE NE.

H8 AND H9 MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SE AFT 12Z AS THERMAL
TROUGH/WRMFNT LIFTS THRU. EXPECT THERE TO BE PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS
AFT 14Z. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT FOR SOME SCT SHRA. DONT THINK
VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED ALL THAT MUCH IN THE SHRA SO JUST CARRIED
VCSH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES

000
FXUS61 KRLX 222350
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS UP N ARE EXODUS...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
ARRIVING FROM THE S IN RESPONSE TO S/W FEATURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
NAM AND ECMWF BEAT GFS AND UKMET ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL TAKE MOST OF ITS DYNAMICS S AND E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MON.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT AND MON IS UPSLOPE SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING.

FARTHER W...FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING AND FORCING IS MUCH LESS EVEN THOUGH
THE COLUMN IS ALMOST AS SATURATED.  SREF STILL SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OHIO IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN VORT LOBE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W FEATURE.

INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS PACKAGE IN GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING GULF AND THEN SE COASTS.  THIS
SET UP WEAKENS LATE MON AS NEW ENGLAND HIGH IS EXODUS AND LOW IS E
OF THE AREA OFF MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

NO IMPORTANT DEVIATIONS FROM MOS ANTICIPATED ON LOWS TONIGHT NOR
HIGHS MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK H5 VORT MAX REACHING THE AREA
BY TUE 00Z...UNDER A DESCENT MOISTURE LAYER UP TO H7. THEREFORE...BY
00Z TUE...BULK OF PCPN PROBABLY MOVING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE PCPN MOVES
NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. WITH LESS FORCING AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW
UP TO H8 BY TUE EVENING...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

BY WED...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER MI. MODELS SOLUTIONS
SEEMS SPLIT ON THE WED 12Z LOWS CENTER WITH THE NAM/ECMWF BEEN A BIT
WEST WHEN COMPARED WITH THE GFS/GEM POSITIONS. HOWEVER...THE GEM AND
GFS SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
WV BY THE SAME TIME. THIS FEATURE COULD BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ATTM...WITH
VERY LOW BUOYANCY IF ANY...AND PW UNDER ONE INCH...KEPT THUNDER OUT
FOR WED.

ALMOST IDENTICAL BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE SREF AND GMOS FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NOTICED TUE AND WED MORNING...WHICH RESULTED
INTO A BLEND FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S. MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TUE...AND
FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WED AS H5 TEMPS DROP 3-4 DEGREES ACCORDING TO
THE SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES...ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM THE
TOP DOWN...AND WILL SEE GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT. WILL
END UP A MVFR GENERALLY BEYOND 10Z GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH BKW AS IT MAY DROP TO IFR...AND THIS MAY NEED
A TEMPO GROUP FOR MONDAY. IFR CEILINGS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING.

SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE...AND WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT BKW.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL THE WV
MTNS...MAINLY ALONG THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...MON AFTERNOON INTO
MON NIGHT IN LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26

000
FXUS61 KCLE 222334
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
634 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND WEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE ERODED...SO WILL START THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT
THICKEST CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO TEMPS
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHT. WENT LOWER 40S NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
A DOWN SLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO
HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED
UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS.
TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT.

BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SO REMOVED DROPPED POPS FOR TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY. GFS IS BOTH FASTER AND COLDER
THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF. FOR NOW LEANED TOWARD THE NAM FOR
WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE WEST AND ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE NOT CLEAR
BUT THE MODELS HAVE SOME OF THE SAME IDEAS...IT WILL BE COLDER WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS TRACKS IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOING WITH THE
GENERAL TREND OF THE OTHER MODELS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS OHIO.

KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION RAIN ON THURSDAY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND THEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS.  THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
TRIES TO WARM ON THE ECMWF...NONE THE LESS THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NOT THAT MUCH...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY
NOT BE OUT OF CONTROL...OF COURSE THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SEEMS TO
AGREE...FOLLOWING THAT TREND WITH 20 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A
STARTER.

THE GRIDDED MOS AND HPC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE PRETTY
CLOSE...FOLLOWED THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE TOO...MAINLY IN THE 4 TO 6 KNOT RANGE.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD NOT SEE AS MUCH FOG OVERNIGHT AS THERE WAS
THIS AM. WILL STILL GIVE MOST LOCATIONS A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND BY LATE IN THE
DAY THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE AREA. THIS PRECIP
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE AREA
FROM A LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. WILL KEEP CIGS VFR THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE NEARBY BY THAT TIME. E TO SE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ON THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME WIND
MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME NOT
ANTICIPATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND WE HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KIELTYKA

000
FXUS61 KILN 222117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
LATE TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM S TO N OVERNIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS
N THOUGH KY...CLOUDS TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS
OVER MUCH OF CNTRL OH VALLEY WILL MAKE FOR A SLOW NORTHERLY
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LLVL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AS WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY/UPR TN VALLEYS LIFTS NE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
ON THE NW SIDE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THEN NE STATES THROUGH
EARLY TUES. THE MOISTURE PULLED INTO FCST AREA WILL MAINLY BE DUE
TO WRAP AROUND FROM THIS LARGER FEATURE. WHILE ENOUGH WEAK LIFT
AVAILABLE...MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY LIMITED OVER FCST AREA FOR MON.
HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FCST ESPECIALLY ALONG AND S/E OF
INTERSTATE 71...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE BOTH SCATTERED AND LIGHT.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK AS A DEEP CLOSED UPR
LOW...PER BOTH GFS/ECMWF...APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS. STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS BEING
QUICKEST...ECMWF IN THE MIDDLE AND THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST. HAVE
HEDGED WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND...BRINGING IN LOW CHANCES AHEAD OF
THE SFC FNT BY 18Z TUE...BUT GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME
06-12Z WED.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH LEANING TOWARD GUIDANCE NUMBERS...WITH WARMER
LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC POSITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS...12Z ECMWF AND
THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING
DRY THEREAFTER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
DIGGING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP FROM THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE UPR LVL CLOSED
LOW CONTINUES TO TREK EAST TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...IT WILL
UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO COOL AS
WELL AS ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO OUR REGION. LATEST GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...KEEPING MOST OF THE PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
LATEST ECMWF INDICATES THAT PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE MORE IN
THE OFFING. SO AS TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW...HAVE USED THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NE
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP FROM THE NW TOWARD OUR AREA
LATE IN THE DAY. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RECOVERY TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST. CI SPILLING INTO THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL SNEAK IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING A THERMAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT/PSEUDO
WARM FRONT A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE
TOMORROW MORNING FROM THIS...ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTUAL FEATURE
CROSSES ANY PARTICULAR AREA. ANY ADVERSE EFFECTS FROM THIS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND ONLY ACCOUNT FOR A DROP IN THE CIG VERSUS A
REDUCTION IN VSBY.

LOWER CIGS WILL PERSIST LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW...COULD REMAIN
VFR FOR A BIT OF THE DAY TOWARDS DAYTON AND CVG/LUK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 222111
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
411 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LOUISIANA TONIGHT TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY NIGHT MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY TO GIVE THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS INDICATED BY RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES EXPECT FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
LOUISIANA HEADS TOWARD THE VIRGINIA COAST...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

AS CONTINUED TO BE SHOWN BY SREF MODEL OUTPUT...THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SHOWERS FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM COULD SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY.

FORECASTED CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD USING A BLEND
OF CLOSELY CONCURRING GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERAL SREF MODEL MEMBERS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL NAM MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE
TO SHOW SHOWERS FROM THE COASTAL SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER OPERATIONAL
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT SHOW NO RAIN FOR THE AREA. OUR CURRENT
SOLUTION WAS TO KEEP MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS...BUT FOR ONLY LOCATIONS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DAYTIME
TUESDAY.

BASED ON RECENT BLEND OF SREF AND GEFS MODEL OUTPUT...EXPECT THE
FIRST SHOWERS WITH THE INCOMING WESTERN SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...PREFERRED SLIGHTLY MILDER GFS MOS VALUES THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT WITH THESE
BEING THE FIRST TWO NIGHTS IN SOME TIME WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THERE WOULD BE ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

MODELS HAVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE TOO FAR TO THE EAST
TO AFFECT LOCAL WEATHER. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SCATTERED OUT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY CLEAR BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE A FEW
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIRRUS SHIELD TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

THE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. FOR NOW...WILL JUST KEEP LOW VFR
CEILINGS AT MOST SITES.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCLE 222027
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
327 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND WEST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS
HAVE ERODED...SO WILL START THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT
THICKEST CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO TEMPS
SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHT. WENT LOWER 40S NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
A DOWN SLOPE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO
HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED
UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS.
TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT.

BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A BREAK IN THE PRECIP ON TUESDAY AS WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...SO REMOVED DROPPED POPS FOR TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY. GFS IS BOTH FASTER AND COLDER
THAN BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF. FOR NOW LEANED TOWARD THE NAM FOR
WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE WEST AND ALONG
THE LAKE SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE NOT CLEAR
BUT THE MODELS HAVE SOME OF THE SAME IDEAS...IT WILL BE COLDER WITH
SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS TRACKS IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GOING WITH THE
GENERAL TREND OF THE OTHER MODELS IN TRACKING THE LOW ACROSS OHIO.

KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION RAIN ON THURSDAY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK OF
THE LOW AND THEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS.  THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
TRIES TO WARM ON THE ECMWF...NONE THE LESS THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NOT THAT MUCH...THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY
NOT BE OUT OF CONTROL...OF COURSE THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER TROF WILL BE APPROACHING
NORTHWEST OHIO FOR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS SEEMS TO
AGREE...FOLLOWING THAT TREND WITH 20 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A
STARTER.

THE GRIDDED MOS AND HPC TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE PRETTY
CLOSE...FOLLOWED THAT.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND FOG HAVE JUST
ABOUT BURNED OFF. SOME CLOUDS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHWEST OHIO
FROM LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD
HELP DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...MAINLY
AREAS OF MVFR BR. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ON THE LAKE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME WIND
MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME NOT
ANTICIPATING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
BUT IT COULD BE CLOSE.

THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTER THE
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH AND WE HAVE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THEN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA

000
FXUS61 KRLX 221922
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
223 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS UP N ARE EXODUS...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
ARRIVING FROM THE S IN RESPONSE TO S/W FEATURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
NAM AND ECMWF BEAT GFS AND UKMET ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL TAKE MOST OF ITS DYNAMICS S AND E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MON.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT AND MON IS UPSLOPE SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING.

FARTHER W...FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING AND FORCING IS MUCH LESS EVEN THOUGH
THE COLUMN IS ALMOST AS SATURATED.  SREF STILL SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OHIO IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN VORT LOBE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W FEATURE.

INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS PACKAGE IN GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING GULF AND THEN SE COASTS.  THIS
SET UP WEAKENS LATE MON AS NEW ENGLAND HIGH IS EXODUS AND LOW IS E
OF THE AREA OFF MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

NO IMPORTANT DEVIATIONS FROM MOS ANTICIPATED ON LOWS TONIGHT NOR
HIGHS MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK H5 VORT MAX REACHING THE AREA
BY TUE 00Z...UNDER A DESCENT MOISTURE LAYER UP TO H7. THEREFORE...BY
00Z TUE...BULK OF PCPN PROBABLY MOVING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
ADJUSTED DOWN POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE PCPN MOVES
NORTHEAST MON NIGHT. WITH LESS FORCING AND MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW
UP TO H8 BY TUE EVENING...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT.

BY WED...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE OVER MI. MODELS SOLUTIONS
SEEMS SPLIT ON THE WED 12Z LOWS CENTER WITH THE NAM/ECMWF BEEN A BIT
WEST WHEN COMPARED WITH THE GFS/GEM POSITIONS. HOWEVER...THE GEM AND
GFS SUGGEST A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
WV BY THE SAME TIME. THIS FEATURE COULD BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. ATTM...WITH
VERY LOW BUOYANCY IF ANY...AND PW UNDER ONE INCH...KEPT THUNDER OUT
FOR WED.

ALMOST IDENTICAL BIAS CORRECTED SOLUTIONS FROM THE SREF AND GMOS FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NOTICED TUE AND WED MORNING...WHICH RESULTED
INTO A BLEND FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOWER 40S. MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TUE...AND
FEW DEGREES COOLER ON WED AS H5 TEMPS DROP 3-4 DEGREES ACCORDING TO
THE SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON THURSDAY A SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPENING THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...AND SWEEPING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SOUNDINGS AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTHERN
WV...AND SE OHIO...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MUCH OF THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...STRONG NW WINDS
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SHOWERS GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY. MODELS INDICATING
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
AFTER VFR START...CLOUDS INCREASE...LOWER AND THICKEN FROM S TO N
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
MTNS...FIRST BKW WHERE FEW025 HAD ALREADY SHOWN UP...AND THEN LIKELY
BY DAWN MON EKN WHEN BKW MAY START EXPERIENCING IFR DECK.  ALSO HAVE
MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MON AT BKW ONLY...AS THIS
WEATHER WILL AFFECT SE FACING MTN SLOPES.

ELSEWHERE CIGS WILL LOWER BELOW 6KFT LATER TONIGHT BUT LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD..WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION ON HTS WHICH COULD
SEE MVFR DECK BY THE CLOSE OF THE PD.  NOTHING MORE THAN SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS MON...WITH NO IMPORTANT
VSBY RESTRICTION.

SE FLOW IN THE MTNS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON HILL AND
RIDGE TOPS LIKE BKW...WHILE LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
BECOMES SE.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MODERATE SE.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL THE WV
MTNS...MAINLY ALONG THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...MON AFTERNOON INTO
MON NIGHT IN LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KRLX 221806
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
102 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST.  COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.  COLD AND CLOUDY FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST AS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS UP N ARE EXODUS...HIGH CLOUDS WERE
ARRIVING FROM THE S IN RESPONSE TO S/W FEATURE OVER THE TN VALLEY.
NAM AND ECMWF BEAT GFS AND UKMET ON EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL TAKE MOST OF ITS DYNAMICS S AND E OF THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH MON.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATER
TONIGHT AND MON IS UPSLOPE SE FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING.

FARTHER W...FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING AND FORCING IS MUCH LESS EVEN THOUGH
THE COLUMN IS ALMOST AS SATURATED.  SREF STILL SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OHIO IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN VORT LOBE
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED S/W FEATURE.

INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS PACKAGE IN GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING GULF AND THEN SE COASTS.  THIS
SET UP WEAKENS LATE MON AS NEW ENGLAND HIGH IS EXODUS AND LOW IS E
OF THE AREA OFF MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

NO IMPORTANT DEVIATIONS FROM MOS ANTICIPATED ON LOWS TONIGHT NOR
HIGHS MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL
EXPAND POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TUESDAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS INTO
TUESDAY...BUT NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHTS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MID
WEEK...PUSHING IT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NOW. WILL ADJUST TIMING...BUT
NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
AFTER VFR START...CLOUDS INCREASE...LOWER AND THICKEN FROM S TO N
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN THE
MTNS...FIRST BKW WHERE FEW025 HAD ALREADY SHOWN UP...AND THEN LIKELY
BY DAWN MON EKN WHEN BKW MAY START EXPERIENCING IFR DECK.  ALSO HAVE
MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND MON AT BKW ONLY...AS THIS
WEATHER WILL AFFECT SE FACING MTN SLOPES.

ELSEWHERE CIGS WILL LOWER BELOW 6KFT LATER TONIGHT BUT LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PD..WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION ON HTS WHICH COULD
SEE MVFR DECK BY THE CLOSE OF THE PD.  NOTHING MORE THAN SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS MON...WITH NO IMPORTANT
VSBY RESTRICTION.

SE FLOW IN THE MTNS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON HILL AND
RIDGE TOPS LIKE BKW...WHILE LIGHT NE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
BECOMES SE.  FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MODERATE SE.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL THE WV
MTNS...MAINLY ALONG THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...MON AFTERNOON INTO
MON NIGHT IN LIGHT RAIN...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KILN 221742
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1242 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY AIRMASS OVER
US...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 22-23 DEG WARMER
THAN THIS MORNINGS MINIMUMS. YESTERDAY SAW SOME MORNING CLOUD
COVER AND ALL SITES OVER IN/KY/OH WERE ON AVERAGE 20-21 DEG FROM
THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MINIMA. CONTINUED DRY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
OTHER THAN CIRRUS IN KY HAD ME ADD TWO DEGREES TO THE DIURNAL
USING THE SAME THOUGHT PROCESS. THIS BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A
FEW DEGREES.

CI WILL SPILL INTO THE SOUTH BUT IT APPEARS TO BE THIN ENOUGH FOR
A DAY THAT IS MORE SUNNY THAN NOT. AFTERNOON CU DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH OF A THREAT TODAY. IF CU DEVELOPS...THEY WILL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN...NOT ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN ANY TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN GOOD 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE RAISE POPS
CONSIDERABLY. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A NARROWER DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS GUIDANCE WITH
WARMER LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS FOR A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER
SOLUTION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS
PASSES THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO
THE NORTHEAST. CI SPILLING INTO THE SOUTHERN SITES WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL SNEAK IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING A THERMAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT/PSEUDO
WARM FRONT A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE
TOMORROW MORNING FROM THIS...ESPECIALLY AS THE ACTUAL FEATURE
CROSSES ANY PARTICULAR AREA. ANY ADVERSE EFFECTS FROM THIS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND ONLY ACCOUNT FOR A DROP IN THE CIG VERSUS A
REDUCTION IN VSBY.

LOWER CIGS WILL PERSIST LATER IN THE DAY TOMORROW...COULD REMAIN
VFR FOR A BIT OF THE DAY TOWARDS DAYTON AND CVG/LUK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS

000
FXUS61 KCLE 221730
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1230 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY AS IT
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND UPDATE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST HAVE ERODED WHILE EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE WESTERN BASIN
OF LAKE ERIE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY.
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING QUITE A CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED TO GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS IN WEST WITH TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WHILE LOWER 40S HANGING ON IN EAST. GIVEN CURRENT OBS MOST
LOCATIONS HAVING VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES.
MENTIONED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PREDOMINATE. EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY DRIFTING
CLOUDS EASTWARD THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL TREND FOR TODAY WILL SHOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT FOR FAR EASTERN SPOTS
SUCH AS IN NW PA CAN SEE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUNNY BREAKS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TEMPS WILL CLIMB
QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST WITH SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE...BUT THEY ARE ALSO STARTING
OFF MUCH WARMER. BASICALLY BY END OF THE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP IN MID 50S GENERALLY. WENT LOWER 50S FOR NW PA
WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING AND UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT WITH
A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. BOTH GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA BUT THINKING ANY INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT ANY RADIATING LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM
REASONABLE.

CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO
HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED
UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS.
TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT.

KEPT POPS LOW ON TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH A BREAK
IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY AND
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. DID NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE POPS WITH
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. MOS GUIDANCE
SIMILAR WITH POPS THEN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SLGT CHC.

GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE WITH SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAYTIME.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TO HIGH CHC. ECMWF NOT QUITE
AS ROBUST ON BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA SO WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A BIT MORE SIMILARITY BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS
WHICH ARE ADVERTISED BY GFS.

THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR THE REGION. TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR BECOMING EVEN MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. LEANED ON COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BIG TROUGH
PROGGED TO ROLL ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AS IT CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF TAKES
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. GFS
CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM BUT KEEPS IT MOVING. GEM IS FARTHER NORTH AND
FASTER BUT SEEMS TO BE MISSING THE STRONG JET THAT THE OTHER MODELS
PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.

A COMPROMISE IN SPEED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTH WOULD SEEM CLIMATOLOGICALLY REASONABLE. THIS WILL PUT THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE
TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND PROBABLY PERSIST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ALL THE MODELS SHOW WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING
QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS IS NOT PROGGED TO BE
UNUSUALLY COLD BUT WITH ENOUGH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THERE COULD BE
SOME DECENT SHOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT A CLASSIC SET UP
FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WOULD EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO DRY OUT BY SATURDAY.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DEW DEGREES BELOW MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. STRATUS AND FOG HAVE JUST
ABOUT BURNED OFF. SOME CLOUDS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHWEST OHIO
FROM LAKE ERIE WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THIS SHOULD
HELP DECREASE THE INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...MAINLY
AREAS OF MVFR BR. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FLOW
WILL VEER MORE FROM THE EAST BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THE WIND/WAVES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY. SOUTH FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SOME TIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON AFTER AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WINDS TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE/DJB
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221715
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1215 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL BRING SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY, IMAGES SHOWING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
DISSIPATING...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LOWER BASED
ON RECENT SURFACE DATA AND RUC OUTPUT.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM SYSTEM
COMING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST IS INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. MODEL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE BUT WILL NOT GO THAT FAR
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST WITH A DRY PERIOD LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. MODEL
THICKNESS STILL SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LOWER FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A MIX FOR FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW BUT NEW RUN OF ECMWF AGREES WITH GFS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MEX MOS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH BASED ON MODEL THICKNESS
AND 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KFKL/KDUJ WHERE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KMGW-KDUJ LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCLE 221606 AAA
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1106 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY AS IT
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND UPDATE CLOUD COVER. MOST OF
THE CLOUDS OVER THE EAST HAVE ERODED WHILE EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE WESTERN BASIN
OF LAKE ERIE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY.
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING QUITE A CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED TO GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS IN WEST WITH TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WHILE LOWER 40S HANGING ON IN EAST. GIVEN CURRENT OBS MOST
LOCATIONS HAVING VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES.
MENTIONED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PREDOMINATE. EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY DRIFTING
CLOUDS EASTWARD THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL TREND FOR TODAY WILL SHOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT FOR FAR EASTERN SPOTS
SUCH AS IN NW PA CAN SEE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUNNY BREAKS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TEMPS WILL CLIMB
QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST WITH SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE...BUT THEY ARE ALSO STARTING
OFF MUCH WARMER. BASICALLY BY END OF THE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP IN MID 50S GENERALLY. WENT LOWER 50S FOR NW PA
WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING AND UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT WITH
A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. BOTH GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA BUT THINKING ANY INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT ANY RADIATING LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM
REASONABLE.

CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO
HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED
UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS.
TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT.

KEPT POPS LOW ON TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH A BREAK
IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY AND
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. DID NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE POPS WITH
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. MOS GUIDANCE
SIMILAR WITH POPS THEN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SLGT CHC.

GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE WITH SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAYTIME.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TO HIGH CHC. ECMWF NOT QUITE
AS ROBUST ON BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA SO WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A BIT MORE SIMILARITY BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS
WHICH ARE ADVERTISED BY GFS.

THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR THE REGION. TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR BECOMING EVEN MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. LEANED ON COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BIG TROUGH
PROGGED TO ROLL ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AS IT CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF TAKES
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. GFS
CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM BUT KEEPS IT MOVING. GEM IS FARTHER NORTH AND
FASTER BUT SEEMS TO BE MISSING THE STRONG JET THAT THE OTHER MODELS
PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.

A COMPROMISE IN SPEED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTH WOULD SEEM CLIMATOLOGICALLY REASONABLE. THIS WILL PUT THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE
TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND PROBABLY PERSIST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ALL THE MODELS SHOW WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING
QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS IS NOT PROGGED TO BE
UNUSUALLY COLD BUT WITH ENOUGH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THERE COULD BE
SOME DECENT SHOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT A CLASSIC SET UP
FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WOULD EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO DRY OUT BY SATURDAY.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DEW DEGREES BELOW MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR FOG IS WIDESPREAD BUT DENSE IN LIMITED AREAS... MAINLY
WEST OF I-77. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING. MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE EAST OF I-77 AND ACROSS WESTERN PA.
FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE EAST SO THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK MAY DRIFT A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND WILL LIKELY BRUSH KCLE FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT KYNG AND KERI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BEFORE THEY CAN GET TO OTHER
TAF SITES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. INCREASED
EAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FLOW
WILL VEER MORE FROM THE EAST BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THE WIND/WAVES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY. SOUTH FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SOME TIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON AFTER AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WINDS TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE/DJB
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KILN 221506
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1006 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY AIRMASS OVER
US...ALLOWING MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE ABOUT 22-23 DEG WARMER
THAN THIS MORNINGS MINIMUMS. YESTERDAY SAW SOME MORNING CLOUD
COVER AND ALL SITES OVER IN/KY/OH WERE ON AVERAGE 20-21 DEG FROM
THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MINIMA. CONTINUED DRY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
OTHER THAN CIRRUS IN KY HAD ME ADD TWO DEGREES TO THE DIURNAL
USING THE SAME THOUGHT PROCESS. THIS BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS TODAY A
FEW DEGREES.

CI WILL SPILL INTO THE SOUTH BUT IT APPEARS TO BE THIN ENOUGH FOR
A DAY THAT IS MORE SUNNY THAN NOT. AFTERNOON CU DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH OF A THREAT TODAY. IF CU DEVELOPS...THEY WILL BE FEW AND
FAR BETWEEN...NOT ENOUGH TO PULL DOWN ANY TEMPS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN GOOD 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE RAISE POPS
CONSIDERABLY. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A NARROWER DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS GUIDANCE WITH
WARMER LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS FOR A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER
SOLUTION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS
PASSES THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES ON SUNDAY. VISBY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY HOWEVER
THEY WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE EAST TO SE. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH CU TODAY HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW CU NEAR KDAY AND KILN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
FOG FORMATION FOR MONDAY MORNING. KLUK WILL STILL EXPERIENCE VISBY
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY MORNING WITH EAST TO SE FLOW HELPING DEVELOP
RIVER VALLEY FOG. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND DEGREE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
APPEARS GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT TAF PERIOD DRY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK

000
FXUS61 KCLE 221152
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
652 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY AS IT
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY.
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING QUITE A CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED TO GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS IN WEST WITH TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WHILE LOWER 40S HANGING ON IN EAST. GIVEN CURRENT OBS MOST
LOCATIONS HAVING VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES.
MENTIONED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PREDOMINATE. EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY DRIFTING
CLOUDS EASTWARD THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL TREND FOR TODAY WILL SHOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT FOR FAR EASTERN SPOTS
SUCH AS IN NW PA CAN SEE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUNNY BREAKS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TEMPS WILL CLIMB
QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST WITH SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE...BUT THEY ARE ALSO STARTING
OFF MUCH WARMER. BASICALLY BY END OF THE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP IN MID 50S GENERALLY. WENT LOWER 50S FOR NW PA
WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING AND UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT WITH
A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. BOTH GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA BUT THINKING ANY INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT ANY RADIATING LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM
REASONABLE.

CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO
HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED
UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS.
TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT.

KEPT POPS LOW ON TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH A BREAK
IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY AND
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. DID NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE POPS WITH
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. MOS GUIDANCE
SIMILAR WITH POPS THEN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SLGT CHC.

GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE WITH SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAYTIME.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TO HIGH CHC. ECMWF NOT QUITE
AS ROBUST ON BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA SO WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A BIT MORE SIMILARITY BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS
WHICH ARE ADVERTISED BY GFS.

THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR THE REGION. TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR BECOMING EVEN MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. LEANED ON COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BIG TROUGH
PROGGED TO ROLL ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AS IT CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF TAKES
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. GFS
CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM BUT KEEPS IT MOVING. GEM IS FARTHER NORTH AND
FASTER BUT SEEMS TO BE MISSING THE STRONG JET THAT THE OTHER MODELS
PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.

A COMPROMISE IN SPEED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTH WOULD SEEM CLIMATOLOGICALLY REASONABLE. THIS WILL PUT THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE
TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND PROBABLY PERSIST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ALL THE MODELS SHOW WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING
QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS IS NOT PROGGED TO BE
UNUSUALLY COLD BUT WITH ENOUGH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THERE COULD BE
SOME DECENT SHOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT A CLASSIC SET UP
FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WOULD EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO DRY OUT BY SATURDAY.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DEW DEGREES BELOW MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR FOG IS WIDESPREAD BUT DENSE IN LIMITED AREAS... MAINLY
WEST OF I-77. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING. MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOMINATE EAST OF I-77 AND ACROSS WESTERN PA.
FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE EAST SO THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK MAY DRIFT A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND WILL LIKELY BRUSH KCLE FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT KYNG AND KERI INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BEFORE THEY CAN GET TO OTHER
TAF SITES. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. INCREASED
EAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FLOW
WILL VEER MORE FROM THE EAST BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THE WIND/WAVES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY. SOUTH FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SOME TIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON AFTER AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WINDS TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KILN 221129
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
629 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN GOOD 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE RAISE POPS
CONSIDERABLY. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A NARROWER DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS GUIDANCE WITH
WARMER LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS FOR A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER
SOLUTION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS
PASSES THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES ON SUNDAY. VISBY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY HOWEVER
THEY WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE EAST TO SE. NOT EXPECTING AS MUCH CU TODAY HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW CU NEAR KDAY AND KILN. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
FOG FORMATION FOR MONDAY MORNING. KLUK WILL STILL EXPERIENCE VISBY
RESTRICTIONS MONDAY MORNING WITH EAST TO SE FLOW HELPING DEVELOP
RIVER VALLEY FOG. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND DEGREE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
APPEARS GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT TAF PERIOD DRY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221119
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
619 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF CWA
THIS MORNING AS BREAKS HAVE FILLED IN. WILL REQUIRE MIXING BY MID
MORNING TO DECREASE CLOUDS . STILL EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHEARS OUT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS REGION.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST IS INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. MODEL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE BUT WILL NOT GO THAT FAR
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST WITH A DRY PERIOD LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. MODEL
THICKNESS STILL SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LOWER FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A MIX FOR FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW BUT NEW RUN OF ECMWF AGREES WITH GFS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MEX MOS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH BASED ON MODEL THICKNESS
AND 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KFKL/KDUJ WHERE CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED ACROSS THE
AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KMGW-KDUJ LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 221037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
537 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS IMPACT
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. COLD AND CLOUDY FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED THIS THINKING.  HOWEVER...
MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS SINCE
YESTERDAY.

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...APPEARS UPPER LOW OVER LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST.  THIS MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION DRY FOR ONE MORE DAY.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TODAY...SPREADING NORTH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO ON MONDAY.  COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO LATEST GUIDANCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.  SEE NO
REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL
EXPAND POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TUESDAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS INTO
TUESDAY...BUT NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHTS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MID
WEEK...PUSHING IT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NOW. WILL ADJUST TIMING...BUT
NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
AREA OF LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF PA AND
NORTHEAST OH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THAT PART OF THE REGION UNTIL 18Z...BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...PATCHY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

ANY FOG/MIST THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AS WELL AS
OTHER FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY TODAY.

THE GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN....WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AFT 00Z MON. LIFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
AFT 10Z MON.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE
WV MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...MONDAY IN
RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 221029
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
529 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE OVER MUCH OF CWA
THIS MORNING AS BREAKS HAVE FILLED IN. WILL REQUIRE MIXING BY MID
MORNING TO DECREASE CLOUDS . STILL EXPECT SUNSHINE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL THEN
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHEARS OUT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS REGION.
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST IS INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. MODEL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE BUT WILL NOT GO THAT FAR
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST WITH A DRY PERIOD LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. MODEL
THICKNESS STILL SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LOWER FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A MIX FOR FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW BUT NEW RUN OF ECMWF AGREES WITH GFS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MEX MOS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH BASED ON MODEL THICKNESS
AND 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KFKL/KDUJ...WITH CIGS HOVERING
AROUND 3-4KFT OTHERWISE. TEMPO GROUPS ARE FCST FOR KFKL/KDUJ FOR CIGS
DROPPING TO LIFR-IFR LEVELS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. WITH CLEARING
AT KZZV...VSBYS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING AS RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMES CENTERD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KILN 220927
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUING TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD. SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE WEAK LIFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN GOOD 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE RAISE POPS
CONSIDERABLY. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A NARROWER DIURNAL
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS GUIDANCE WITH
WARMER LOWS AND COOLER HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TRACKING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THE TREND IS FOR A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER
SOLUTION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THIS
PASSES THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW SHOWERS. COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
UNTIL A RIDGE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE TAF SITES. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING BELIEVE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS
BAD TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES HOWEVER STILL INCLUDED MVFR VISBYS
OVERNIGHT AT TAF SITES. WENT LOWER AT KLUK WITH VISBYS AS EASTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER IN ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK

000
FXUS61 KCLE 220924
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
424 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY AS IT
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
DURING THAT TIME. A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY.
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING QUITE A CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED TO GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS IN WEST WITH TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WHILE LOWER 40S HANGING ON IN EAST. GIVEN CURRENT OBS MOST
LOCATIONS HAVING VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES.
MENTIONED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PREDOMINATE. EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY DRIFTING
CLOUDS EASTWARD THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL TREND FOR TODAY WILL SHOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT FOR FAR EASTERN SPOTS
SUCH AS IN NW PA CAN SEE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUNNY BREAKS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TEMPS WILL CLIMB
QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST WITH SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE...BUT THEY ARE ALSO STARTING
OFF MUCH WARMER. BASICALLY BY END OF THE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP IN MID 50S GENERALLY. WENT LOWER 50S FOR NW PA
WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING AND UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT WITH
A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. BOTH GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA BUT THINKING ANY INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT ANY RADIATING LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM
REASONABLE.

CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO
HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED
UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS.
TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT.

KEPT POPS LOW ON TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH A BREAK
IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY AND
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. DID NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE POPS WITH
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. MOS GUIDANCE
SIMILAR WITH POPS THEN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SLGT CHC.

GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE WITH SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAYTIME.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TO HIGH CHC. ECMWF NOT QUITE
AS ROBUST ON BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA SO WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A BIT MORE SIMILARITY BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS
WHICH ARE ADVERTISED BY GFS.

THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR THE REGION. TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR BECOMING EVEN MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. LEANED ON COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BIG TROUGH
PROGGED TO ROLL ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AS IT CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF TAKES
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. GFS
CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM BUT KEEPS IT MOVING. GEM IS FARTHER NORTH AND
FASTER BUT SEEMS TO BE MISSING THE STRONG JET THAT THE OTHER MODELS
PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.

A COMPROMISE IN SPEED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTH WOULD SEEM CLIMATOLOGICALLY REASONABLE. THIS WILL PUT THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE
TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND PROBABLY PERSIST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ALL THE MODELS SHOW WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING
QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS IS NOT PROGGED TO BE
UNUSUALLY COLD BUT WITH ENOUGH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THERE COULD BE
SOME DECENT SHOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT A CLASSIC SET UP
FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WOULD EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO DRY OUT BY SATURDAY.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DEW DEGREES BELOW MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
MVFR CIGS HANGING ON IN THE EAST BUT ITS CLEAR ELSEWHERE. ASIDE
FROM CLE AND ERI...I EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF IFR FOG AT ALL SITES
OVERNIGHT. TOOK ALL SITES DOWN TO 1 OR 2SM BUT IT COULD
CONCEIVABLY GO LOWER FOR A TIME. FOG WILL LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FLOW
WILL VEER MORE FROM THE EAST BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THE WIND/WAVES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY. SOUTH FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SOME TIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON AFTER AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WINDS TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KCLE 220921
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
421 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY AS IT
SLIDE TO NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIRMASS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION TODAY.
SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING QUITE A CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN
2/3 OF FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED TO GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS IN WEST WITH TEMPS DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S WHILE LOWER 40S HANGING ON IN EAST. GIVEN CURRENT OBS MOST
LOCATIONS HAVING VISIBILITIES RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES.
MENTIONED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE QUARTER MILE OR LESS
CONDITIONS ARE NOT PREDOMINATE. EASTERLY FLOW SLOWLY DRIFTING
CLOUDS EASTWARD THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL TREND FOR TODAY WILL SHOW
CLOUDS DISSIPATING THROUGH THE MORNING BUT FOR FAR EASTERN SPOTS
SUCH AS IN NW PA CAN SEE CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUNNY BREAKS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TEMPS WILL CLIMB
QUICKLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST WITH SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE
EASTERN AREAS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE...BUT THEY ARE ALSO STARTING
OFF MUCH WARMER. BASICALLY BY END OF THE AFTERNOON MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP IN MID 50S GENERALLY. WENT LOWER 50S FOR NW PA
WITH THE SLOWER CLEARING AND UPPER 50S FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WENT WITH
A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE. BOTH GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA BUT THINKING ANY INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT ANY RADIATING LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SEEM
REASONABLE.

CLOUDS ADVANCING THROUGH AREA ON MONDAY BUT WENT A BIT SLOWER IN
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTHEAST WILL
ATTEMPT TO KEEP MID LEVELS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY SO
HELD BACK POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING COME MONDAY NIGHT SO RAMPED
UP POPS A BIT FOR THEN. FOR NOW STILL WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE WITH CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIP COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREAS.
TEMPS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT.

KEPT POPS LOW ON TUESDAY AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH A BREAK
IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY AND
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. DID NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE POPS WITH
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. MOS GUIDANCE
SIMILAR WITH POPS THEN JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SLGT CHC.

GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE WITH SOLUTION OF BRINGING LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DAYTIME.
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TO HIGH CHC. ECMWF NOT QUITE
AS ROBUST ON BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA SO WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A BIT MORE SIMILARITY BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS
WHICH ARE ADVERTISED BY GFS.

THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE THE TRANSITIONAL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR THE REGION. TRANSITIONED TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND THEN TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR BECOMING EVEN MORE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. LEANED ON COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE BIG TROUGH
PROGGED TO ROLL ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF
REMAINS THE SLOWEST AS IT CUTS OFF THE UPPER LOW. THE ECMWF TAKES
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND TO MOVE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. GFS
CUTS OFF THE SYSTEM BUT KEEPS IT MOVING. GEM IS FARTHER NORTH AND
FASTER BUT SEEMS TO BE MISSING THE STRONG JET THAT THE OTHER MODELS
PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.

A COMPROMISE IN SPEED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTH WOULD SEEM CLIMATOLOGICALLY REASONABLE. THIS WILL PUT THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW VEERS MORE
TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND PROBABLY PERSIST INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH ALL THE MODELS SHOW WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING
QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS IS NOT PROGGED TO BE
UNUSUALLY COLD BUT WITH ENOUGH DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THERE COULD BE
SOME DECENT SHOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT A CLASSIC SET UP
FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WOULD EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO DRY OUT BY SATURDAY.

FORECAST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DEW DEGREES BELOW MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AS CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
MVFR CIGS HANGING ON IN THE EAST BUT ITS CLEAR ELSEWHERE. ASIDE
FROM CLE AND ERI...I EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF IFR FOG AT ALL SITES
OVERNIGHT. TOOK ALL SITES DOWN TO 1 OR 2SM BUT IT COULD
CONCEIVABLY GO LOWER FOR A TIME. FOG WILL LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FLOW
WILL VEER MORE FROM THE EAST BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT THE WIND/WAVES WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY. SOUTH FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SOME TIME WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOON AFTER AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WINDS TO
APPROACH GALE FORCE BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220820
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
320 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH EARLY MORNING
CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BEGINNING TO
BREAK ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE PAST DAYBREAK. AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY CLOUDS WILL BREAK ACROSS CWA WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES BEING
THE LAST TO CLEAR. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHEARS OUT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES PUSHING MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST IS INCREASE IN POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE. MODEL POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE BUT WILL NOT GO THAT FAR
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND CHANCE NORTH. LEFTOVER SHOWERS
EARLY TUESDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST WITH A DRY PERIOD LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSED LOW WILL BE
APPROACHING LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP AND COLD CLOSED LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. MODEL
THICKNESS STILL SHOWS TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THEN LOWER FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A MIX FOR FRIDAY. LEFT SATURDAY DRY FOR
NOW BUT NEW RUN OF ECMWF AGREES WITH GFS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. WILL LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE SNOW CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AND MEX MOS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH BASED ON MODEL THICKNESS
AND 850MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KFKL/KDUJ...WITH CIGS HOVERING
AROUND 3-4KFT OTHERWISE. TEMPO GROUPS ARE FCST FOR KFKL/KDUJ FOR CIGS
DROPPING TO LIFR-IFR LEVELS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. WITH CLEARING
AT KZZV...VSBYS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING AS RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMES CENTERD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 220802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TODAY. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS IMPACT
REGION THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. COLD AND CLOUDY FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  MODELS SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED THIS THINKING.  HOWEVER...
MODELS HAVE NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THESE CLOUDS SINCE
YESTERDAY.

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...APPEARS UPPER LOW OVER LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST.  THIS MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST OF THE
REGION DRY FOR ONE MORE DAY.  EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH LATE TODAY...SPREADING NORTH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OHIO ON MONDAY.  COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA.

TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO LATEST GUIDANCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.  SEE NO
REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH JUST SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE PUSHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...SO WILL
EXPAND POPS FURTHER TO THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS INTO TUESDAY BUT
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS INTO
TUESDAY...BUT NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHTS MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR MID
WEEK...PUSHING IT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NOW. WILL ADJUST TIMING...BUT
NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC DUE TO MODEL VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
AREA OF LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF PA AND
NORTHEAST OH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THAT PART OF THE REGION UNTIL 18Z...BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...PATCHY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE MVFR MIST AFT 06Z. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD IFR FOG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD LOCATIONS IN FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

THE FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

THE GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN....WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFT 00Z
MON.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/SL/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220552
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1252 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE COMING EASTWARD FROM
THE ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACRE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MILDER THAN NORMALS USING CLOSE TO
RECENT BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES ALONG WITH SREF MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL SHOWERS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES CAN BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST...THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH WILL COME TO AN END.

EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EACH NIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEN FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE LOW
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HRS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT KFKL/KDUJ...WITH CIGS HOVERING
AROUND 3-4KFT OTHERWISE. TEMPO GROUPS ARE FCST FOR KFKL/KDUJ FOR CIGS
DROPPING TO LIFR-IFR LEVELS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. WITH CLEARING
AT KZZV...VSBYS WILL REDUCE TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING AS RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMES CENTERD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WILL DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL RETURN
THE CHANCE FOR REDUCED CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KILN 220542
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1242 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...AND A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE E OVERNIGHT..BUT WILL STAY IN
CONTROL. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN IN THE RURAL
AREAS ACROSS THE NRN HALF. DROPPED TEMPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS A
CATEGORY.

LOWERED SKY COVER ALSO TO GO JUST CLEAR. CI IS NT WORK N AS
QUICKLY AS MODELS ORIGINALLY HAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
TODAY...MATCHING GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WILL SEE WINDS START TO COME IN
FROM THE EAST...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPS STICKING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMED TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION GOING INTO MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT GFS RUNS SHOWED PRECIP OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE 12Z HAS ALSO SHIFTED MORE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL INDEED BE SOME MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH.
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGHER SKY GRIDS...BUT WAS NOT SOLD ON
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW (GENERALLY
BETWEEN 850-700MB) AND FOUND VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT ANY FORCING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500MB INDICATED BY THE GFS SHOULD HELP THE
CLOUDS...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TEMPS IN THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EACH HAVING THEIR TYPICAL
THERMAL PROFILE BIASES.

AN UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
WESTERN/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW WILL BE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF AFOREMENTIONED FIRST LOW AS
IT DIVES SE FROM S CNTRL CANADA TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL EJECT THE FIRST UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE SECOND LOW WILL ALSO BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS LOW HAVING MORE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WITH LOWERING CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND FREEZING LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH A WARM
GROUND AND PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY IN NATURE...AM
NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN EXITING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NOT TRENDED THIS WAY
YET. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. READINGS WILL COOL TO BELOW
NORMAL READINGS...AT LEAST FOR HIGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL READINGS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE TAF SITES. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING BELIEVE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS
BAD TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES HOWEVER STILL INCLUDED MVFR VISBYS
OVERNIGHT AT TAF SITES. WENT LOWER AT KLUK WITH VISBYS AS EASTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM
THE EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER IN ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK

000
FXUS61 KRLX 220518
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1218 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS NOT HANDING PATCHY STRATOCU DECKS AROUND THE AREA BUT IT
APPEARS THIS CLOUD WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FCST...OTHER THAN
THEIR EXODUS FROM THE FCST FOR TONIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES...WILL ADJUST AT LEAST TO THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG BY DAWN SUN...ESPECIALLY MTN
RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART BUT ALSO ALONG THE OHIO AGAIN.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BEGINNING SUN W/R UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.  BELIEVE S/W CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AT BAY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z SUN.  WITH
THIS...TOGETHER WITH SLOWER OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT...MOST
MODELS INCLUDING MOST SREF MEMBERS KEEP FCST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z
MON.  OPTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY KNOCK BACK...BUT ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE
POPS...FOR SE PORTION OF FCST AREA SUN...AS E COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO SET UP.

WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR SUN...IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OR TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NAM DAMPENS OUT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST A BIT MORE THAN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. NAM ALSO DRAGS
IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LEAVES THE CWA ONLY AFFECTED BY THE WELL
DEPICTED SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. NOT SOLD ON
THE NAM AT THIS POINT TAKING THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS DOES OVER DO THE CLOUD FORECAST
IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A CAREFUL EYE IS NEEDED FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHICH
OF THESE ACTUALLY PREVAILS WITH CONSISTENCY. POPS REMAIN HIGHEST IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND
HAVE REDUCED CONSIDERABLY THE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH AN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHER
THAN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE LOWLANDS ON
MONDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
MAY END UP WITH A SITUATION WHERE THE MAX T FORECASTS LOWERS EVEN
MORE WITH A SMALL DIURNAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
AREA OF LOW VFR/MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF PA AND
NORTHEAST OH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THAT PART OF THE REGION UNTIL 18Z...BEFORE
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS...PATCHY MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM NORTHEAST FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE MVFR MIST AFT 06Z. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD IFR FOG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLD LOCATIONS IN FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

THE FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

THE GULF COAST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN....WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTH ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFT 00Z
MON.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KCLE 220420
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1120 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE QUESTION IS WILL THE CLOUDS GO AWAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
AND WILL DENSE FOG DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE AREAS WHERE
THE SKIES CLEAR. WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS GOING IN THE EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
COULD DEVELOP THERE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. THE DEW POINTS DID DROP
A LITTLE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BUT SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE IT. WILL UPDATE THE HWO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
TALK ABOUT DENSE FOG. THIS TIME OF YEAR THE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
BURN OFF SUNDAY MORNING. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WENT A LITTLE LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MORNING FOG SUNDAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
SOME SUN THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD. IF THE FOG STAYS TOO
LONG TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RECOVER AS MUCH AS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME CIRRUS IN THE AREA. COULD
BE A LITTLE WIND...NOT FORECASTING DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES/GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. WENT WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DON`T AGREE WITH THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS DRY MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT QPF WITH A WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW KEPT THE POPS
IN THE 20% RANGE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE BETTER. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT...NONE THE LESS WILL HAVE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS.

WENT WARMER FOR MONDAY THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT IF THE NAM IS CORRECT AND THERE AREN`T MANY CLOUDS IT
WILL BE COOLER. USING THE OTHER MODELS SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MOS
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE THE HPC/GRIDDED MOST GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS THE BEST AS
THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND EVEN WITH THE MODELS HAVING DIFFERENT
TIMING. EVEN WITH THE FASTER GFS IT WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN.

GOODBYE FALL...HELLO WINTER.  THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE THE
TRANSITION FROM THE FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO WHERE WE SHOULD BE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN ON THURSDAY
BUT 1000 TO 850 MB THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1300
AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE REGION...FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ALIGNED FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WEATHER SHOULD BE GOOD
FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADING HOME ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
MVFR CIGS HANGING ON IN THE EAST BUT ITS CLEAR ELSEWHERE. ASIDE
FROM CLE AND ERI...I EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF IFR FOG AT ALL SITES
OVERNIGHT. TOOK ALL SITES DOWN TO 1 OR 2SM BUT IT COULD
CONCEIVABLY GO LOWER FOR A TIME. FOG WILL LIFT AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  NEXT TROUBLE
WILL COME FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED ONCE AGAIN.  WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE WEATHER FEATURES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS BY WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220341
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1041 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF SHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE COMING EASTWARD FROM
THE ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACRE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MILDER THAN NORMALS USING CLOSE TO
RECENT BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES ALONG WITH SREF MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL SHOWERS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES CAN BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST...THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH WILL COME TO AN END.

EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EACH NIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEN FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE LOW
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE 3KFT MARK AT ALL TAF
SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY
SUNSET...WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BRING IN DRIER
AIR. MVFR CIGS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT FAVORED
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 220252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
850 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS NOT HANDING PATCHY STRATOCU DECKS AROUND THE AREA BUT IT
APPEARS THIS CLOUD WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FCST...OTHER THAN
THEIR EXODUS FROM THE FCST FOR TONIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES...WILL ADJUST AT LEAST TO THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG BY DAWN SUN...ESPECIALLY MTN
RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART BUT ALSO ALONG THE OHIO AGAIN.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BEGINNING SUN W/R UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.  BELIEVE S/W CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AT BAY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z SUN.  WITH
THIS...TOGETHER WITH SLOWER OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT...MOST
MODELS INCLUDING MOST SREF MEMBERS KEEP FCST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z
MON.  OPTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY KNOCK BACK...BUT ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE
POPS...FOR SE PORTION OF FCST AREA SUN...AS E COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO SET UP.

WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR SUN...IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OR TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NAM DAMPENS OUT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST A BIT MORE THAN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. NAM ALSO DRAGS
IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LEAVES THE CWA ONLY AFFECTED BY THE WELL
DEPICTED SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. NOT SOLD ON
THE NAM AT THIS POINT TAKING THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS DOES OVER DO THE CLOUD FORECAST
IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A CAREFUL EYE IS NEEDED FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHICH
OF THESE ACTUALLY PREVAILS WITH CONSISTENCY. POPS REMAIN HIGHEST IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND
HAVE REDUCED CONSIDERABLY THE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH AN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHER
THAN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE LOWLANDS ON
MONDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
MAY END UP WITH A SITUATION WHERE THE MAX T FORECASTS LOWERS EVEN
MORE WITH A SMALL DIURNAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
MVFR MIST WITH ISOLD IFR FOG IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR
THE TAF SITES...EKN WILL LIKELY BE THE LONE SITE TO GO IFR BEFORE
DAWN SUNDAY.  THE FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

A SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HI
LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY...WITH AT MOST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA BY 18Z SUN.

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ

000
FXUS61 KILN 220245
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
945 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...AND A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE E OVERNIGHT..BUT WILL STAY IN
CONTROL. SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPS HAVE FALLEN IN THE RURAL
AREAS ACROSS THE NRN HALF. DROPPED TEMPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS A
CATEGORY.

LOWERED SKY COVER ALSO TO GO JUST CLEAR. CI IS NT WORK N AS
QUICKLY AS MODELS ORIGINALLY HAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
TODAY...MATCHING GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WILL SEE WINDS START TO COME IN
FROM THE EAST...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPS STICKING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMED TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION GOING INTO MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT GFS RUNS SHOWED PRECIP OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE 12Z HAS ALSO SHIFTED MORE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL INDEED BE SOME MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH.
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGHER SKY GRIDS...BUT WAS NOT SOLD ON
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW (GENERALLY
BETWEEN 850-700MB) AND FOUND VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT ANY FORCING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500MB INDICATED BY THE GFS SHOULD HELP THE
CLOUDS...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TEMPS IN THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EACH HAVING THEIR TYPICAL
THERMAL PROFILE BIASES.

AN UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
WESTERN/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW WILL BE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF AFOREMENTIONED FIRST LOW AS
IT DIVES SE FROM S CNTRL CANADA TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL EJECT THE FIRST UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE SECOND LOW WILL ALSO BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS LOW HAVING MORE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WITH LOWERING CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND FREEZING LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH A WARM
GROUND AND PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY IN NATURE...AM
NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN EXITING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NOT TRENDED THIS WAY
YET. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. READINGS WILL COOL TO BELOW
NORMAL READINGS...AT LEAST FOR HIGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL READINGS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AS CENTER OF SFC HIGH SLIDES E. MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TNGT...BUT IT SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WENT AHEAD
AND PUT KLUK DOWN TO 1/4SM FG DUE TO THE ELY FLOW. EXPECT SOME CI
TO BEGIN TO WORK IN TOMORROW AHEAD OF H5 S/W EJECTING FROM THE
LOWER MS VLY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES

000
FXUS61 KILN 212344
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...AND A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP CONTROL OF THINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP AGAIN. WITH A
WARMER STARTING POINT WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE OBSERVED LOWS
LAST NIGHT...BUT BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO STICK AROUND TOO LONG TONIGHT SO WENT KEPT THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
TODAY...MATCHING GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WILL SEE WINDS START TO COME IN
FROM THE EAST...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPS STICKING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMED TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION GOING INTO MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT GFS RUNS SHOWED PRECIP OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE 12Z HAS ALSO SHIFTED MORE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL INDEED BE SOME MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH.
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGHER SKY GRIDS...BUT WAS NOT SOLD ON
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW (GENERALLY
BETWEEN 850-700MB) AND FOUND VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT ANY FORCING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500MB INDICATED BY THE GFS SHOULD HELP THE
CLOUDS...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TEMPS IN THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EACH HAVING THEIR TYPICAL
THERMAL PROFILE BIASES.

AN UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
WESTERN/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW WILL BE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF AFOREMENTIONED FIRST LOW AS
IT DIVES SE FROM S CNTRL CANADA TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL EJECT THE FIRST UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE SECOND LOW WILL ALSO BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS LOW HAVING MORE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WITH LOWERING CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND FREEZING LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH A WARM
GROUND AND PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY IN NATURE...AM
NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN EXITING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NOT TRENDED THIS WAY
YET. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. READINGS WILL COOL TO BELOW
NORMAL READINGS...AT LEAST FOR HIGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL READINGS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AS CENTER OF SFC HIGH SLIDES E. MVFR FOG
POSSIBLE AGAIN TNGT...BUT IT SHOULDNT BE AS WIDESPREAD. WENT AHEAD
AND PUT KLUK DOWN TO 1/4SM FG DUE TO THE ELY FLOW. EXPECT SOME CI
TO BEGIN TO WORK IN TOMORROW AHEAD OF H5 S/W EJECTING FROM THE
LOWER MS VLY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES

000
FXUS61 KCLE 212322
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
622 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE QUESTION IS WILL THE CLOUDS GO AWAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
AND WILL DENSE FOG DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE AREAS WHERE
THE SKIES CLEAR. WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS GOING IN THE EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
COULD DEVELOP THERE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. THE DEW POINTS DID DROP
A LITTLE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BUT SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE IT. WILL UPDATE THE HWO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
TALK ABOUT DENSE FOG. THIS TIME OF YEAR THE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
BURN OFF SUNDAY MORNING. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WENT A LITTLE LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MORNING FOG SUNDAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
SOME SUN THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD. IF THE FOG STAYS TOO
LONG TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RECOVER AS MUCH AS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME CIRRUS IN THE AREA. COULD
BE A LITTLE WIND...NOT FORECASTING DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES/GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. WENT WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DON`T AGREE WITH THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS DRY MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT QPF WITH A WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW KEPT THE POPS
IN THE 20% RANGE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE BETTER. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT...NONE THE LESS WILL HAVE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS.

WENT WARMER FOR MONDAY THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT IF THE NAM IS CORRECT AND THERE AREN`T MANY CLOUDS IT
WILL BE COOLER. USING THE OTHER MODELS SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MOS
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE THE HPC/GRIDDED MOST GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS THE BEST AS
THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND EVEN WITH THE MODELS HAVING DIFFERENT
TIMING. EVEN WITH THE FASTER GFS IT WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN.

GOODBYE FALL...HELLO WINTER.  THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE THE
TRANSITION FROM THE FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO WHERE WE SHOULD BE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN ON THURSDAY
BUT 1000 TO 850 MB THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1300
AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE REGION...FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ALIGNED FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WEATHER SHOULD BE GOOD
FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADING HOME ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST...MEANWHILE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE LINGERING IN THE EAST. LATEST SATELLITE LOOP
REVEALS SOME LOW CLOUD COVER RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST...WHILE
CLE APPEARED TO BE ON THEIR WAY TO A CLEAR NIGHT A FEW HOURS
AGO...NOW IM NOT SO SURE. I WILL HANG ONTO 3500FT CIGS THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN CLEAR THINGS OUT. ELSEWHERE AT CAK YNG
AND ERI...I THINK MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MID
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE SOME IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT
YNG/CAK AS WELL.

I AM CONCERNED THAT GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT
WEST...THERE COULD BE SOME IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT. I STUCK WITH THE
SAME IDEA FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...I JUST BUMPED BACK THE
TIMING A BIT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO BURN
OFF. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL SITES UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  NEXT TROUBLE
WILL COME FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED ONCE AGAIN.  WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE WEATHER FEATURES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS BY WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 212041
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
341 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS
COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
BRING SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES
BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. THE CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW THE CLOUDS ERODING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL HYDROLAPSE /VERTICAL HUMIDITY
PROFILE/ SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT...SUBSEQUENT
NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO FOG PATCHES BY EARLY
MORNING.

DURING DAYTIME SUNDAY...EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CLOUDS AND HENCE
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO BE MILDER THAN NORMALS USING CLOSE TO
RECENT BLEND OF GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES ALONG WITH SREF MODEL
OUTPUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NEAR
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS FROM A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO REMAIN DRY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INITIAL SHOWERS
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES CAN BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST...THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH WILL COME TO AN END.

EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THE MODELS. NEVERTHELESS...OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT EACH NIGHT RAIN
MAY MIX WITH SNOW...BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY
PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHEN FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS
TO DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SEASONABLE LOW
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE 3KFT MARK AT ALL TAF
SITES. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY
SUNSET...WITH ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BRING IN DRIER
AIR. MVFR CIGS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AT FAVORED
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.


&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCLE 212034
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
334 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE QUESTION IS WILL THE CLOUDS GO AWAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
AND WILL DENSE FOG DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE AREAS WHERE
THE SKIES CLEAR. WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS GOING IN THE EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
COULD DEVELOP THERE. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. THE DEW POINTS DID DROP
A LITTLE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO BUT SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO ISSUE IT. WILL UPDATE THE HWO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
TALK ABOUT DENSE FOG. THIS TIME OF YEAR THE FOG WILL BE SLOW TO
BURN OFF SUNDAY MORNING. OVER NORTHWEST OHIO WENT A LITTLE LOWER
THAN GUIDANCE WITH THE DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MORNING FOG SUNDAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
SOME SUN THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD. IF THE FOG STAYS TOO
LONG TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RECOVER AS MUCH AS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME CIRRUS IN THE AREA. COULD
BE A LITTLE WIND...NOT FORECASTING DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES/GRIDS AT
THIS TIME. WENT WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE.

THE MODELS DON`T AGREE WITH THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS DRY MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT QPF WITH A WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME WITH CONFIDENCE LOW KEPT THE POPS
IN THE 20% RANGE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE BETTER. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT...NONE THE LESS WILL HAVE THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS.

WENT WARMER FOR MONDAY THAN THE GUIDANCE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT IF THE NAM IS CORRECT AND THERE AREN`T MANY CLOUDS IT
WILL BE COOLER. USING THE OTHER MODELS SO WENT WITH THE WARMER MOS
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE THE HPC/GRIDDED MOST GUIDANCE WAS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS THE BEST AS
THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND EVEN WITH THE MODELS HAVING DIFFERENT
TIMING. EVEN WITH THE FASTER GFS IT WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN.

GOODBYE FALL...HELLO WINTER.  THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL SEE THE
TRANSITION FROM THE FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO WHERE WE SHOULD BE THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN ON THURSDAY
BUT 1000 TO 850 MB THICKNESS VALUES EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1300
AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST INTO THE REGION...FLOW WILL BECOME WELL ALIGNED FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT REGION OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WEATHER SHOULD BE GOOD
FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS HEADING HOME ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT IN THE WEST AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE EAST. CLEARING
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST AND BE AT ERIE BY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAIN PROBLEMS OF THE DAY ARE THE HEIGHT OF THE LOW CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AS WELL THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER PROBLEM IS DIRTY AIR MASS IN PLACE. A LOT
OF HAZE PRESENT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 5 MILES IN
MANY PLACES. I THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE
EAST...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST 2 MILES AT TOLEDO
AND FINDLAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME BUT WILL STICK WITH THE 2 MILES FOR NOW AS WIND
FLOW REMAINS LIGHT BUT SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING.

NOTICED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING THROUGH EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THIS IS LIMITING PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.  NEXT TROUBLE
WILL COME FRIDAY AS WINDS PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED ONCE AGAIN.  WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THESE WEATHER FEATURES FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING WINDS BY WEEKS END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY

000
FXUS61 KILN 212023
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
323 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE APPALACHIANS ON
MONDAY...AND A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP CONTROL OF THINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETTING UP AGAIN. WITH A
WARMER STARTING POINT WENT A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE OBSERVED LOWS
LAST NIGHT...BUT BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS. CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO STICK AROUND TOO LONG TONIGHT SO WENT KEPT THINGS MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
TODAY...MATCHING GUIDANCE CLOSELY. WILL SEE WINDS START TO COME IN
FROM THE EAST...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A TROUGH LIFTING UP THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY LEAD TO TEMPS STICKING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMED TO FAVOR A DRIER SOLUTION GOING INTO MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT GFS RUNS SHOWED PRECIP OVER THE
AREA...BUT THE 12Z HAS ALSO SHIFTED MORE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION.
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL INDEED BE SOME MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH.
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR SOME HIGHER SKY GRIDS...BUT WAS NOT SOLD ON
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW (GENERALLY
BETWEEN 850-700MB) AND FOUND VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT ANY FORCING.
WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500MB INDICATED BY THE GFS SHOULD HELP THE
CLOUDS...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

TEMPS IN THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE BASICALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH EACH HAVING THEIR TYPICAL
THERMAL PROFILE BIASES.

AN UPR LVL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE
WESTERN/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW WILL BE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF AFOREMENTIONED FIRST LOW AS
IT DIVES SE FROM S CNTRL CANADA TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL EJECT THE FIRST UPR LVL
CLOSED LOW NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE SECOND LOW WILL ALSO BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH THIS LOW HAVING MORE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. AGAIN...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. WITH LOWERING CRITICAL THICKNESSES
AND FREEZING LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WITH A WARM
GROUND AND PCPN NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY IN NATURE...AM
NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER IN EXITING UPR LVL CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NOT TRENDED THIS WAY
YET. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. READINGS WILL COOL TO BELOW
NORMAL READINGS...AT LEAST FOR HIGHS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL READINGS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OHIO. A FEW FAIR WX CU WILL POP FROM
2500`-3500` TODAY AND QUICKLY DIE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NEITHER BE AS WIDESPREAD NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS IT WAS EARLIER
THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING UNDER THE EASTERLY WINDS. CI
MAY SPILL INTO SW CWA TOMORROW...BUT EVEN THIS IS IN QUESTION. IT
MAY HANG ON THE HORIZON AND NEVER MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT AS UPPER
FLOW IS STILL PULLING IN DRIER AIR ON NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...FRANKS

000
FXUS61 KRLX 212002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS NOT HANDING PATCHY STRATOCU DECKS AROUND THE AREA BUT IT
APPEARS THIS CLOUD WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FCST...OTHER THAN
THEIR EXODUS FROM THE FCST FOR TONIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES...WILL ADJUST AT LEAST TO THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG BY DAWN SUN...ESPECIALLY MTN
RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART BUT ALSO ALONG THE OHIO AGAIN.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BEGINNING SUN W/R UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.  BELIEVE S/W CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AT BAY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z SUN.  WITH
THIS...TOGETHER WITH SLOWER OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT...MOST
MODELS INCLUDING MOST SREF MEMBERS KEEP FCST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z
MON.  OPTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY KNOCK BACK...BUT ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE
POPS...FOR SE PORTION OF FCST AREA SUN...AS E COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO SET UP.

WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR SUN...IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OR TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NAM DAMPENS OUT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST A BIT MORE THAN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. NAM ALSO DRAGS
IT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LEAVES THE CWA ONLY AFFECTED BY THE WELL
DEPICTED SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. NOT SOLD ON
THE NAM AT THIS POINT TAKING THE SYSTEM COMPLETELY EAST OF THE
CWA...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS DOES OVER DO THE CLOUD FORECAST
IN NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A CAREFUL EYE IS NEEDED FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHICH
OF THESE ACTUALLY PREVAILS WITH CONSISTENCY. POPS REMAIN HIGHEST IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE AREAS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...AND
HAVE REDUCED CONSIDERABLY THE POPS FOR THE LOWLANDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH AN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OTHER
THAN A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER THAN THE LOWLANDS ON
MONDAY UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.
MAY END UP WITH A SITUATION WHERE THE MAX T FORECASTS LOWERS EVEN
MORE WITH A SMALL DIURNAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN
OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THIS
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT UPSLOPE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SNOW OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE 2500
FEET ELEV LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THE REAL COOL DOWN WILL
BEGIN ON THANKSGIVING...AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DIGS
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION...AND USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY MORNING
MUCH OF SE OHIO...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE WV LOWLANDS EXPERIENCING A RAIN SNOW MIX.
MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 4500-5500 FT AGL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BY AND LARGE
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET OF NOT EARLIER THIS AFTN.

LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MVFR MIST WITH ISOLD IFR FOG IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR THE TAF SITES...EKN WILL LIKELY
BE THE LONE SITE TO GO IFR BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY.  THE FOG/MIST SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

A SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HI
LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY...WITH AT MOST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA BY 18Z SUN.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KRLX 211805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
106 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS NOT HANDING PATCHY STRATOCU DECKS AROUND THE AREA BUT IT
APPEARS THIS CLOUD WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FCST...OTHER THAN
THEIR EXODUS FROM THE FCST FOR TONIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES...WILL ADJUST AT LEAST TO THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
THIS RAISES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG BY DAWN SUN...ESPECIALLY MTN
RIVER VALLEYS LIKE THE TYGART BUT ALSO ALONG THE OHIO AGAIN.

MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BEGINNING SUN W/R UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM.  BELIEVE S/W CURRENTLY CROSSING THE AREA WILL KEEP
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AT BAY AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z SUN.  WITH
THIS...TOGETHER WITH SLOWER OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT...MOST
MODELS INCLUDING MOST SREF MEMBERS KEEP FCST AREA DRY THROUGH 00Z
MON.  OPTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY KNOCK BACK...BUT ALTOGETHER ELIMINATE
POPS...FOR SE PORTION OF FCST AREA SUN...AS E COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO SET UP.

WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST FOR SUN...IT APPEARS PRUDENT TO RAISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OR TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING BIG TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM
LAST NIGHTS RUNS...AND SERIOUS TIMING QUESTIONS REMAIN. WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE REGION...AND
LINGER POPS LONGER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SAME BASIC TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THE FASTEST
IN THE COOL DOWN...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SLOWER.

MAIN THEME IN OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL COOL
DOWN...WITH NO SUDDEN OR SHARP CHANGE.  ALSO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD...GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS.

LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARMING IN LOW
LEVELS THOUGHT WE COULD KEEP POP AOB 14 PCT 00Z TUESDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY.

LEFT OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT.  LULL IN POPS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO OUR CHANCE POP RANGE WITH
MID/UPPER AIR TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID HAVE A SMALL
LIKELY POP AREA AROUND ELKINS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FIGURING ON LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING SOUTHWEST. I AM A BIT WARMER THAN MY NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...STILL HAVE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THINKING SOME OF THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.  IF SO...WOULD BE THEIR FIRST
FLAKES.  THIS IS UNUSUALLY LATE FOR THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 4500-5500 FT AGL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BY AND LARGE
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET OF NOT EARLIER THIS AFTN.

LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MVFR MIST WITH ISOLD IFR FOG IN
FAVORED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR THE TAF SITES...EKN WILL LIKELY
BE THE LONE SITE TO GO IFR BEFORE DAWN SUNDAY.  THE FOG/MIST SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z SUN LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
DAY SUN THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

A SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HI
LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY...WITH AT MOST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA BY 18Z SUN.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY THE E TO SE FACING SLOPES...SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS...PRIMARILY ON CIGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KCLE 211752
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1252 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADD A LITTLE MORE SUN TO NORTHWEST OHIO FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA AND THE QUESTION IS WILL THE CLOUDS
DECREASE ANY AND WILL THE SPRINKLES CONTINUE. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. INCLUDED THAT IN
THE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS. ELSEWHERE CONTINUED WITH THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND THE TEMPERATURES LOOK OK. CONTINUED THE THREAT OF
SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS PER THE
RADAR UPSTREAM AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WOULD BE MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH GFS A BIT STRONGER WITH POPS
COMPARED WITH NAM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS
LOWER POPS THEN WITH SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL HELP SUPPORT DRIER AIR AT
THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL PA.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL COME TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE RANGING FROM
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH QUICKER. WITH CONTINUED
TIMING DISCREPANCIES WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE THEM
AT A PARTICULAR PERIOD THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH. TROUGH ACTUALLY IS CARVED OUT IN TWO
PHASES...THE FIRST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE LATER
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER
LOW WITH BOTH SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT YET CLEAR AND
WHERE AND HOW DEEP THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAT THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL COME WITH THE SECOND WAVE BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER WARM (+7C) THANKSGIVING MORNING SO
DO NOT WANT TO RUSH THE COLD AIR. WILL MENTION RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS BOUND TO BE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE EFFECT
WILL BE... WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS OFTEN ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOMINATES. THE WIND
BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS
STARTING TO LIFT OUT. DO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO 40-60
PERCENT WHICH IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE HAVE TO KEEP INCREASING THE CHANCE AS WE GET CLOSER. FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH
SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS
REALLY COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING
JUST LEFT IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR OUT IN THE WEST AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES EAST THROUGH THE AREA. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER IN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE EAST. CLEARING
SHOULD WORK ITS WAY EAST AND BE AT ERIE BY TOMORROW MORNING.

MAIN PROBLEMS OF THE DAY ARE THE HEIGHT OF THE LOW CEILINGS AROUND
2500 FEET IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AS WELL THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. OTHER PROBLEM IS DIRTY AIR MASS IN PLACE. A LOT
OF HAZE PRESENT REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 5 MILES IN
MANY PLACES. I THINK THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE
EAST...VISIBILITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST 2 MILES AT TOLEDO
AND FINDLAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME BUT WILL STICK WITH THE 2 MILES FOR NOW AS WIND
FLOW REMAINS LIGHT BUT SHIFTS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING.

NOTICED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING THROUGH EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THIS IS LIMITING PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ALMOST OVERHEAD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND THE LAKE WILL SETTLE DOWN. WINDS WILL VEER FROM A WEST
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST TO EAST BY SUNDAY BUT THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...RATHER UNUSUAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THAT WILL END BY MID WEEK AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION AND A
DECENT SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORECAST
WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KILN 211726
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1226 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT CONTINUE
TO EXTEND BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK NE OF FCST AREA WILL HANG TOUGH AS CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE
AXIS OF COOLER AIR ALONG A NW/SE BISECTION OF THE STATE. AREA OF
STRATUS RUNNING FROM CINCY METRO AREA NW INTO RICHMOND AND ECNTL
INDIANA SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXES A BIT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE THICKNESS SUPPORTED AT 21Z FROM THE
NAM THIS MORNING SO THERE WERE LITTLE CHANGES OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
CLOUD COVER AND LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
STILL LINGERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL SHORT
WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL
STAY SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSEQUENT SHORT
WAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT ONLY FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED. GENERALLY WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
READINGS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z GFS...GEFS AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A SLOW
OUTLIER. WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE 00Z ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THERE
WILL BE A FURTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW. LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A DRIER BUT COOL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OHIO. A FEW FAIR WX CU WILL POP FROM
2500`-3500` TODAY AND QUICKLY DIE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF MVFR VSBYS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL
NEITHER BE AS WIDESPREAD NOR AS LONG IN DURATION AS IT WAS EARLIER
THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE IS DRYING UNDER THE EASTERLY WINDS. CI
MAY SPILL INTO SW CWA TOMORROW...BUT EVEN THIS IS IN QUESTION. IT
MAY HANG ON THE HORIZON AND NEVER MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT AS UPPER
FLOW IS STILL PULLING IN DRIER AIR ON NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS

000
FXUS61 KCLE 211716
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1216 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED TO ADD A LITTLE MORE SUN TO NORTHWEST OHIO FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA AND THE QUESTION IS WILL THE CLOUDS
DECREASE ANY AND WILL THE SPRINKLES CONTINUE. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. INCLUDED THAT IN
THE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS. ELSEWHERE CONTINUED WITH THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND THE TEMPERATURES LOOK OK. CONTINUED THE THREAT OF
SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS PER THE
RADAR UPSTREAM AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WOULD BE MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH GFS A BIT STRONGER WITH POPS
COMPARED WITH NAM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS
LOWER POPS THEN WITH SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL HELP SUPPORT DRIER AIR AT
THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL PA.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL COME TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE RANGING FROM
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH QUICKER. WITH CONTINUED
TIMING DISCREPANCIES WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE THEM
AT A PARTICULAR PERIOD THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH. TROUGH ACTUALLY IS CARVED OUT IN TWO
PHASES...THE FIRST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE LATER
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER
LOW WITH BOTH SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT YET CLEAR AND
WHERE AND HOW DEEP THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAT THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL COME WITH THE SECOND WAVE BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER WARM (+7C) THANKSGIVING MORNING SO
DO NOT WANT TO RUSH THE COLD AIR. WILL MENTION RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS BOUND TO BE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE EFFECT
WILL BE... WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS OFTEN ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOMINATES. THE WIND
BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS
STARTING TO LIFT OUT. DO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO 40-60
PERCENT WHICH IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE HAVE TO KEEP INCREASING THE CHANCE AS WE GET CLOSER. FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH
SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS
REALLY COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING
JUST LEFT IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY MINOR AVIATION ISSUES AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH A FEW IFR PATCHES OF STRATUS DOWN WIND OF
LAKE ERIE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.
CLEAR PATCHES OF SKY ACROSS NW OHIO SHOULD FILL BACK IN THIS
MORNING. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND DEWPOINTS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPING. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON HOW DENSE THE FOG MIGHT BE
BUT IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY TR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ALMOST OVERHEAD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND THE LAKE WILL SETTLE DOWN. WINDS WILL VEER FROM A WEST
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST TO EAST BY SUNDAY BUT THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...RATHER UNUSUAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THAT WILL END BY MID WEEK AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION AND A
DECENT SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORECAST
WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KCLE 211546
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1046 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA AND THE QUESTION IS WILL THE CLOUDS
DECREASE ANY AND WILL THE SPRINKLES CONTINUE. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. INCLUDED THAT IN
THE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS. ELSEWHERE CONTINUED WITH THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND THE TEMPERATURES LOOK OK. CONTINUED THE THREAT OF
SPRINKLES MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS PER THE
RADAR UPSTREAM AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WOULD BE MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH GFS A BIT STRONGER WITH POPS
COMPARED WITH NAM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS
LOWER POPS THEN WITH SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL HELP SUPPORT DRIER AIR AT
THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL PA.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL COME TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE RANGING FROM
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH QUICKER. WITH CONTINUED
TIMING DISCREPANCIES WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE THEM
AT A PARTICULAR PERIOD THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH. TROUGH ACTUALLY IS CARVED OUT IN TWO
PHASES...THE FIRST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE LATER
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER
LOW WITH BOTH SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT YET CLEAR AND
WHERE AND HOW DEEP THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAT THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL COME WITH THE SECOND WAVE BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER WARM (+7C) THANKSGIVING MORNING SO
DO NOT WANT TO RUSH THE COLD AIR. WILL MENTION RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS BOUND TO BE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE EFFECT
WILL BE... WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS OFTEN ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOMINATES. THE WIND
BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS
STARTING TO LIFT OUT. DO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO 40-60
PERCENT WHICH IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE HAVE TO KEEP INCREASING THE CHANCE AS WE GET CLOSER. FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH
SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS
REALLY COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING
JUST LEFT IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY MINOR AVIATION ISSUES AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH A FEW IFR PATCHES OF STRATUS DOWN WIND OF
LAKE ERIE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.
CLEAR PATCHES OF SKY ACROSS NW OHIO SHOULD FILL BACK IN THIS
MORNING. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND DEWPOINTS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPING. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON HOW DENSE THE FOG MIGHT BE
BUT IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY TR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ALMOST OVERHEAD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND THE LAKE WILL SETTLE DOWN. WINDS WILL VEER FROM A WEST
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST TO EAST BY SUNDAY BUT THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...RATHER UNUSUAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THAT WILL END BY MID WEEK AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION AND A
DECENT SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORECAST
WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KILN 211442
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
942 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT CONTINUE
TO EXTEND BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS DECK NE OF FCST AREA WILL HANG TOUGH AS CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING THE
AXIS OF COOLER AIR ALONG A NW/SE BISECTION OF THE STATE. AREA OF
STRATUS RUNNING FROM CINCY METRO AREA NW INTO RICHMOND AND ECNTL
INDIANA SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXES A BIT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE THICKNESS SUPPORTED AT 21Z FROM THE
NAM THIS MORNING SO THERE WERE LITTLE CHANGES OTHER THAN TO TWEAK
CLOUD COVER AND LOWER DEWPOINTS OVER MUCH OF CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
STILL LINGERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL SHORT
WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL
STAY SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSEQUENT SHORT
WAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT ONLY FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED. GENERALLY WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
READINGS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z GFS...GEFS AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A SLOW
OUTLIER. WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE 00Z ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THERE
WILL BE A FURTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW. LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A DRIER BUT COOL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.  FOG WILL BURN
OFF THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. THIS WILL EDGE INTO KLUK AND KILN TAF
SITES AND THEREFORE HAVE PUT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS. EXPECT A RETURN
TO VFR BY 15Z. CU WILL STICK AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN TAF
SITES FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL
OVER FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK

000
FXUS61 KCLE 211206
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
706 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY DUE TO A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN OHIO TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN PART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. FOR
THIS MORNING THOUGH DID MENTION A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NE
OH AND NW PA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY COMING OFF THE LAKE
AT THIS TIME. CONCERNED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS. LOOKS AS
THOUGH ANY SHOWERS WOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MOVING FURTHER INLAND SO
JUST WENT WITH SPRINKLES THROUGH MIDDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV
AND MET TEMPS WITH AROUND 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO LOW 50S ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH GFS A BIT STRONGER WITH POPS
COMPARED WITH NAM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS
LOWER POPS THEN WITH SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL HELP SUPPORT DRIER AIR AT
THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL PA.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL COME TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE RANGING FROM
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH QUICKER. WITH CONTINUED
TIMING DISCREPANCIES WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE THEM
AT A PARTICULAR PERIOD THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH. TROUGH ACTUALLY IS CARVED OUT IN TWO
PHASES...THE FIRST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE LATER
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER
LOW WITH BOTH SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT YET CLEAR AND
WHERE AND HOW DEEP THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAT THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL COME WITH THE SECOND WAVE BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER WARM (+7C) THANKSGIVING MORNING SO
DO NOT WANT TO RUSH THE COLD AIR. WILL MENTION RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS BOUND TO BE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE EFFECT
WILL BE... WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS OFTEN ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOMINATES. THE WIND
BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS
STARTING TO LIFT OUT. DO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO 40-60
PERCENT WHICH IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE HAVE TO KEEP INCREASING THE CHANCE AS WE GET CLOSER. FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH
SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS
REALLY COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING
JUST LEFT IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY MINOR AVIATION ISSUES AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. MVFR STRATOCUMULUS WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA WITH A FEW IFR PATCHES OF STRATUS DOWN WIND OF
LAKE ERIE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW SPRINKLES.
CLEAR PATCHES OF SKY ACROSS NW OHIO SHOULD FILL BACK IN THIS
MORNING. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND SKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND DEWPOINTS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THERE WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPING. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON HOW DENSE THE FOG MIGHT BE
BUT IFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MOST SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR DEVELOPING TUESDAY TR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ALMOST OVERHEAD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND THE LAKE WILL SETTLE DOWN. WINDS WILL VEER FROM A WEST
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST TO EAST BY SUNDAY BUT THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...RATHER UNUSUAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THAT WILL END BY MID WEEK AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION AND A
DECENT SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORECAST
WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 211132
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
632 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW
MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH  BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A
COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONCERN TODAY AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
AT KPIT...KBVI...AND KHLG WILL LIFT TO VFR WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AT
KDUJ AND KFKL LIFTING TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH CIGS BREAKING AT
KMGW/KZZV THIS AFTN. FURTHER NORTHWARD...CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
3-4KFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KDUJ AND
KFKL THIS AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KILN 211126
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
626 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT CONTINUE
TO EXTEND BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND ALSO IN
INDIANA NORTH OF I-70. EXPECT THIS LATTER AREA TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASE LATER IN
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS FAR THERE HAS ONLY BEEN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
FOG MAY REMAIN ONLY PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH WITH HEATING. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
STILL LINGERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL SHORT
WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL
STAY SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSEQUENT SHORT
WAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT ONLY FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED. GENERALLY WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
READINGS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z GFS...GEFS AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A SLOW
OUTLIER. WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE 00Z ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THERE
WILL BE A FURTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW. LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A DRIER BUT COOL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.  FOG WILL BURN
OFF THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS
INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. THIS WILL EDGE INTO KLUK AND KILN TAF
SITES AND THEREFORE HAVE PUT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS. EXPECT A RETURN
TO VFR BY 15Z. CU WILL STICK AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN TAF
SITES FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL
OVER FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK

000
FXUS61 KRLX 210950
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
450 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME CLOUDS AROUND SOME CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FT AGL
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ATTM.  THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE RATHER THIN...SO SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS AT 2 AM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST WITH TIME...IMPACTING THE REGION.  LATEST MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY.  IN FACT...THE NAM12
SUGGESTS REGION WILL GENERALLY BE DRY INTO MONDAY.

NAM12 IS MUCH SLOWER THAN GFS AND ENSEMBLES...SO WILL GENERALLY
TWEAK PREVIOUS POPS TOWARD THE GFS TIMING TO REFLECT SLOWER
TREND.

END RESULT OF THIS NEW TIMING WILL BE CLOUD THICKENING
TONIGHT...SPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO OUR VA
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST...MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.

MADE FEW CHANGES TO HIGH TODAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE WAS VERY SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LOOKS BELIEVABLE.  LOWS TONIGHT WERE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS.  ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY TWEAKED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING BIG TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM
LAST NIGHTS RUNS...AND SERIOUS TIMING QUESTIONS REMAIN. WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE REGION...AND
LINGER POPS LONGER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAME BASIC TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THE FASTEST
IN THE COOL DOWN...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SLOWER.

MAIN THEME IN OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL COOL
DOWN...WITH NO SUDDEN OR SHARP CHANGE.  ALSO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD...GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS.

LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARMING IN LOW
LEVELS THOUGHT WE COULD KEEP POP AOB 14 PCT 00Z TUESDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY.

LEFT OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT.  LULL IN POPS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO OUR CHANCE POP RANGE WITH
MID/UPPER AIR TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID HAVE A SMALL
LIKELY POP AREA AROUND ELKINS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FIGURING ON LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING SOUTHWEST. I AM A BIT WARMER THAN MY NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...STILL HAVE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THINKING SOME OF THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.  IF SO...WOULD BE THEIR FIRST
FLAKES.  THIS IS UNUSUALLY LATE FOR THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 3500-4500 FT AGL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. MODELS
INDICATE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

SOME LOCAL VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/MIST WITH
ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. THE FOG/MIST SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 14Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

A SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MID AND HI
LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA BY 12Z SUN

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AS WELL AS THE WV
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KILN 210946
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
446 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT CONTINUE
TO EXTEND BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND ALSO IN
INDIANA NORTH OF I-70. EXPECT THIS LATTER AREA TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASE LATER IN
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS FAR THERE HAS ONLY BEEN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
FOG MAY REMAIN ONLY PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME CUMULUS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH WITH HEATING. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
STILL LINGERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL SHORT
WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL
STAY SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSEQUENT SHORT
WAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT ONLY FELT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED. GENERALLY WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
READINGS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z GFS...GEFS AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A SLOW
OUTLIER. WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE 00Z ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THERE
WILL BE A FURTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW. LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD
AIR FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY
BRINGING A DRIER BUT COOL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES. VISBYS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY WITH VISBYS RETURNING TO VFR BY 15Z.
SOME CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND BECOME EASTERLY BY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK

000
FXUS61 KCLE 210917
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THEN MOVE TO NEW
ENGLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY DUE TO A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN OHIO TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN PART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. FOR
THIS MORNING THOUGH DID MENTION A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR NE
OH AND NW PA. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY COMING OFF THE LAKE
AT THIS TIME. CONCERNED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE LAKE THIS MORNING WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SHOWERS. LOOKS AS
THOUGH ANY SHOWERS WOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MOVING FURTHER INLAND SO
JUST WENT WITH SPRINKLES THROUGH MIDDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV
AND MET TEMPS WITH AROUND 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO LOW 50S ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH GFS A BIT STRONGER WITH POPS
COMPARED WITH NAM ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. LEANED TOWARDS
LOWER POPS THEN WITH SURFACE HIGH STILL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
RIDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL HELP SUPPORT DRIER AIR AT
THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO CENTRAL PA.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL COME TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE RANGING FROM
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH QUICKER. WITH CONTINUED
TIMING DISCREPANCIES WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE THEM
AT A PARTICULAR PERIOD THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RELATIVELY DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH. TROUGH ACTUALLY IS CARVED OUT IN TWO
PHASES...THE FIRST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND WAVE LATER
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER
LOW WITH BOTH SYSTEMS ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE NOT YET CLEAR AND
WHERE AND HOW DEEP THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAT THE ECMWF. IT APPEARS THAT THE COLDEST
AIR WILL COME WITH THE SECOND WAVE BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT. MODELS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER RATHER WARM (+7C) THANKSGIVING MORNING SO
DO NOT WANT TO RUSH THE COLD AIR. WILL MENTION RAIN MIXED WITH
SNOW LATER IN THE DAY. THERE IS BOUND TO BE PLENTY OF LEFTOVER
CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW ORGANIZED THE LAKE EFFECT
WILL BE... WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM THERE IS OFTEN ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THAT THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT DOMINATES. THE WIND
BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS
STARTING TO LIFT OUT. DO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO 40-60
PERCENT WHICH IS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WE HAVE TO KEEP INCREASING THE CHANCE AS WE GET CLOSER. FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WITH
SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS
REALLY COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING
JUST LEFT IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. MY DILEMMA THIS
EVENING IS HOW TO HANDLE CLOUD COVER AS A QUICK GLANCE AT THE
SATELLITE REVEALS THAT IT MAY TRY AND CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. I THINK
FDY MAY CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN I HAD THOUGHT...BUT I STILL THINK
THAT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE ON THE
WAY...MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON AT ALL MOST SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I WENT OPTIMISTIC AT FDY AND IMPROVED
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ALMOST OVERHEAD TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND THE LAKE WILL SETTLE DOWN. WINDS WILL VEER FROM A WEST
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST TO EAST BY SUNDAY BUT THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...RATHER UNUSUAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
THAT WILL END BY MID WEEK AS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BY WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY. WITH PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION AND A
DECENT SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORECAST
WINDS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KRLX 210733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
230 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER.
UPPER LEVEL LOW IMPACTS REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL SOME CLOUDS AROUND SOME CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FT AGL
MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ATTM.  THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST TODAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE...ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE RATHER THIN...SO SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS AT 2 AM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND THEN
NORTHEAST WITH TIME...IMPACTING THE REGION.  LATEST MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY.  IN FACT...THE NAM12
SUGGESTS REGION WILL GENERALLY BE DRY INTO MONDAY.

NAM12 IS MUCH SLOWER THAN GFS AND ENSEMBLES...SO WILL GENERALLY
TWEAK PREVIOUS POPS TOWARD THE GFS TIMING TO REFLECT SLOWER
TREND.

END RESULT OF THIS NEW TIMING WILL BE CLOUD THICKENING
TONIGHT...SPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION-FREE.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO OUR VA
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST...MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES DURING THE DAY.

MADE FEW CHANGES TO HIGH TODAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE WAS VERY SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LOOKS BELIEVABLE.  LOWS TONIGHT WERE
TWEAKED DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS.  ON SUNDAY...GENERALLY TWEAKED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR
TWO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING BIG TIME ON WHAT TO DO WITH SYSTEM MOVING OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FROM
LAST NIGHTS RUNS...AND SERIOUS TIMING QUESTIONS REMAIN. WILL
THEREFORE LOWER POPS OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE REGION...AND
LINGER POPS LONGER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM IS VERY LOW.

MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAME BASIC TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THE FASTEST
IN THE COOL DOWN...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SLOWER.

MAIN THEME IN OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL COOL
DOWN...WITH NO SUDDEN OR SHARP CHANGE.  ALSO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD...GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS.

LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARMING IN LOW
LEVELS THOUGHT WE COULD KEEP POP AOB 14 PCT 00Z TUESDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY.

LEFT OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT.  LULL IN POPS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO OUR CHANCE POP RANGE WITH
MID/UPPER AIR TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID HAVE A SMALL
LIKELY POP AREA AROUND ELKINS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FIGURING ON LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING SOUTHWEST. I AM A BIT WARMER THAN MY NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...STILL HAVE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THINKING SOME OF THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.  IF SO...WOULD BE THEIR FIRST
FLAKES.  THIS IS UNUSUALLY LATE FOR THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 3500-4500 FT AGL
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
MODELS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THAT REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS POSSIBLE PRODUCING IFR
VISIBILITIES AT CRW...HTS AND EKN. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
LIFT/DISSIPATE AFT 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND SOUTHERN WV ON
SUNDAY IN RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210723
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
223 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK TRAPPED UNDER SURFACE HIGH HANGING OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS WILL OPEN AT TIMES. PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK GOOD. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN EARLY THEN THEN BEGIN TO
BREAK ALLOWING FOR COLDER READINGS AND DROP MIN TEMPS TOWARD NEW
MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE
SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
MONDAY. GFS AND NEW ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE FROM SYSTEM WORKING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO CLEAR AND SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH  BEGINS TO DOMINATE THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL LEAD TO
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MODELS ALSO COMING INTO LINE FOR A BIT OF A
COLDER SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE TIME RANGE IS SO FAR OUT DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING NOW LOOKS TO BE MORE DEFINITE AT NIGHT AND MAY
NEED TO ADD SNOW TO THANKSGIVING DAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS TAF SITES NORTH OF KPIT. WITH KZZV
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BREAKING
CIGS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KDUJ AND KFKL BY 17Z SAT.

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 210544
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MAY SPREAD SHOWERS
TO COMMUNITIES NEAR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLEND OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
THE CURRENT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HANGING OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY COULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. STILL HOLDING OUT FOR PERHAPS SOME
SUNNY BREAKS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ON SAT BASED ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE COMING
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE I-79
CORRIDOR.

HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE VIRGINIA COAST MONDAY. SREF MODEL OUTPUT
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SHOWERS FROM THAT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD AS
FAR WEST AS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR COMMUNITIES NEAR THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THAT PERIOD.

FORECASTED TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD CLOSE TO BLEND OF RECENT GFS
AND NAM MOS AND SREF VALUES...WHICH MAINTAIN MILD TEMPERATURES...6-10
DEG F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
MODELS SHOW UPPER OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THEN UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A COOLING TREND.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FROM
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR THAT IS PROGGED TO FILTER IN
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A COOLING TREND BY THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKSGIVING DAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE PRECIP TYPE TO INCLUDE SOME SNOW BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 3-4KFT CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS ACROSS TAF SITES NORTH OF KPIT. WITH KZZV
ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...BREAKING
CIGS ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS WITH CIGS LIFTING TO VFR EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT KDUJ AND KFKL BY 17Z SAT.

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KDUJ AND
KFKL WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL FINALLY ERODE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH REDUCED CEILINGS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A KMGW-KLBE LINE. REDUCED
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KILN 210538
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1238 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 30S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE WORKING THRU NOW WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP FOR A FEW HOURS. LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVER NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.


WITH THE COOLER TEMPS PUSHING THRU THE AFTN TD...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASED THE FOG COVERAGE FROM PATCHY. MIGHT NEED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CUMULUS ON SATURDAY...WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS. NEXT NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL ROLL THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING TRYING TO
PULL UP FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM AND TAKING IT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THIS
CALLED FOR A LOWERING OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ILN CWA...AND HAVE
SHAVED BACK TO 20-30 POPS FOR BASICALLY JUST THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST PORTIONS. VERTICAL PROFILES OF MOISTURE ARE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD...BUT
WENT A LITTLE BELOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXPECTED CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND RELIED ON
THESE SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
GEFS. AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE ABLE REASSERT ITSELF ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF IT. STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON THANKSGIVING AND THERMAL PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES. VISBYS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY WITH VISBYS RETURNING TO VFR BY 15Z.
SOME CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL GENERALLY
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AND BECOME EASTERLY BY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK

000
FXUS61 KRLX 210521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1221 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST DOWN TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WV...AND UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS INCLUDING PKB...CKB
AND EKN DUE TO MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS
OF THE AREA WILL LOWER INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S AS GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS...BUT SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE RADIATIONAL COOLING
MUCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE REST OF THE AREA...ALREADY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
FOR THE NEAR TERM...CREATING DRY CONDITIONS. MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS DISSIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED CU CONTINUES TO REMAIN.
ALSO...MUCH OF THE CU THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
LOWLANDS HAS MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT.
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STILL THINKING SOME LIGHT PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MORNING IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP...AS TEMPS NOT EXPECTED NOT TO COOL TO FORECAST
DEW PTS. ALTHOUGH CIRRUS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY...SHOULD BE
THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH WAA WILL ALLOW FOR A NICE WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE WESTERN GULF SYSTEM...AND
HAVE IT WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK A BIT LESS ORGANIZED...WARRANTING A DECREASE OF
THE POPS IN THE LOWLANDS. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE STILL LOOKS TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WHERE WE WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST POPS...AND COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. THIS WILL NOT NECESSARILY EQUATE TO A CLEAR SKY HOWEVER.
WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RESULT OF THE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SAME BASIC TRENDS AS YESTERDAY WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THE FASTEST
IN THE COOL DOWN...WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SLOWER.

MAIN THEME IN OUR FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE GRADUAL COOL
DOWN...WITH NO SUDDEN OR SHARP CHANGE.  ALSO NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD...GOOD NEWS FOR TRAVELERS.

LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WARMING IN LOW
LEVELS THOUGHT WE COULD KEEP POP AOB 14 PCT 00Z TUESDAY TO 12Z
TUESDAY.

LEFT OUR MEDIUM RANGE HPC LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT.  LULL IN POPS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO OUR CHANCE POP RANGE WITH
MID/UPPER AIR TROF WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  DID HAVE A SMALL
LIKELY POP AREA AROUND ELKINS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
FIGURING ON LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
REMAINING SOUTHWEST. I AM A BIT WARMER THAN MY NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...STILL HAVE THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THINKING SOME OF THE WESTERN LOWLANDS...AT LEAST HAVE A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY.  IF SO...WOULD BE THEIR FIRST
FLAKES.  THIS IS UNUSUALLY LATE FOR THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS MONTH HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 3 TO 4 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOUT 3500-4500 FT AGL
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.
MODELS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTIONUE INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SATURDAY ACROSS THAT REGION.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS POSSIBLE PRODUCING IFR
VISIBILITIES AT CRW...HTS AND EKN. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
LIFT/DISSIPATE AFT 13Z WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND SOUTHERN WV ON
SUNDAY IN RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH

000
FXUS61 KCLE 210433
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1133 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE COMING FOR MINOR CHANGES. WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES...BUT
NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS IN THIS
EVENING. MODELS KEEP FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
12Z. THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. WILL NOT CHANGE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS BUT IF
CLEARING DOES OCCUR...TEMPS COULD GET CHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORNING WILL START CLOUDY BUT THEN WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE
AFTERNOON IS TOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA SO THE SUBSIDENCE MAY TRY TO EAT AWAY AT THE CLOUDS. AT THIS
TIME AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT WE DEFINITELY MAY HAVE
SOME AFTERNOON SUN. WITH MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN GOING WITH THE LOWER
MOS GUIDANCE.

PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE LOWS AND HIGHS
LOOK REASONABLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS HAVE AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE NAM IS DRY WITH THIS
FEATURE WHILE THE GFS AND SREF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.
DELAYED THE THREAT BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS OF MOST MODELS. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SEEM OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
WITH SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS REALLY
COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST LEFT
IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE MODELS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOVE THROUGH AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS. THIS MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS WILL GRADUALLY MIX THE RAIN WITH SNOW WET SNOW ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY ALL SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW I WOULD THINK THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE SOME
ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. MY DILEMMA THIS
EVENING IS HOW TO HANDLE CLOUD COVER AS A QUICK GLANCE AT THE
SATELLITE REVEALS THAT IT MAY TRY AND CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. I THINK
FDY MAY CLEAR OUT EARLIER THAN I HAD THOUGHT...BUT I STILL THINK
THAT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE ON THE
WAY...MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON AT ALL MOST SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. I WENT OPTIMISTIC AT FDY AND IMPROVED
CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR BEFORE DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ON AND OFF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON LAKE ERIE FOR THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE WEST FLOW DIMINISHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
RELATIVE LIGHT FLOW UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AND
AN EAST WIND INCREASES ENOUGH TO PROBABLY BRING BACK A MARGINAL SCA
FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTH
AND DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT WILL END THE SCA FOR A WHILE LATER SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE BUT AN INCREASING SW FLOW WED LOOKS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AGAIN AT SOME POINT. RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT TIME FRAME SO NOT CONFIDENT AS TO WHEN THE SCA MAY AGAIN BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...BC/KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...ADAMS

000
FXUS61 KILN 210327
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1027 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TEMPS HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 30S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE WORKING THRU NOW WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPS UP FOR A FEW HOURS. LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVER NIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.


WITH THE COOLER TEMPS PUSHING THRU THE AFTN TD...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TONIGHT. INCREASED THE FOG COVERAGE FROM PATCHY. MIGHT NEED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CUMULUS ON SATURDAY...WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS. NEXT NOTABLE SHORTWAVE WILL ROLL THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING TRYING TO
PULL UP FROM THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
SLOWING THIS SYSTEM AND TAKING IT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THIS
CALLED FOR A LOWERING OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ILN CWA...AND HAVE
SHAVED BACK TO 20-30 POPS FOR BASICALLY JUST THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST PORTIONS. VERTICAL PROFILES OF MOISTURE ARE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH HAD LITTLE SPREAD...BUT
WENT A LITTLE BELOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXPECTED CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND RELIED ON
THESE SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
GEFS. AFTER SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE ABLE REASSERT ITSELF ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF IT. STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON THANKSGIVING AND THERMAL PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATED
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE FOG/STRATUS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR A REPEAT OF THE MIST/FOG
FORMATION. THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA WILL BE HOW LOW WILL VSBYS DROP
WITH MIST/FOG. WHEN FOG/STRATUS IS FAIRLY LOW ON THE FIRST
NIGHT...OFTEN IT IS NOT AS BAD THE SECOND NIGHT AROUND...ESPECIALLY
IF SOME DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE DURING THE DAY. SO...WILL NOT GO
REALLY LOW WITH VSBYS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT AT THE NORMALLY FOGGY SPOTS
OF KLUK AND KILN. EXPECT VSBYS WILL DROP INTO THE HIGH END IFR WITH
KLUK/KILN LIKELY FALLING INTO THE LIFR/VLIFR CATEGORY. WITH SUNSHINE
EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING...ALL MIST/FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 16Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...

000
FXUS61 KCLE 210242
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
942 PM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE COMING FOR MINOR CHANGES. WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRAY SPRINKLES...BUT
NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. CLEARING CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS IN THIS
EVENING. MODELS KEEP FAIRLY HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
12Z. THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. WILL NOT CHANGE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS BUT IF
CLEARING DOES OCCUR...TEMPS COULD GET CHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORNING WILL START CLOUDY BUT THEN WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE
AFTERNOON IS TOUGH THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA SO THE SUBSIDENCE MAY TRY TO EAT AWAY AT THE CLOUDS. AT THIS
TIME AM LEANING TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT WE DEFINITELY MAY HAVE
SOME AFTERNOON SUN. WITH MORE CLOUDS THEN SUN GOING WITH THE LOWER
MOS GUIDANCE.

PARTLY CLOUDY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUIDANCE LOWS AND HIGHS
LOOK REASONABLE.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS HAVE AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE NAM IS DRY WITH THIS
FEATURE WHILE THE GFS AND SREF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.
DELAYED THE THREAT BASED ON THE 12Z RUNS OF MOST MODELS. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SEEM OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
WITH SOME SHOWERS...THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS REALLY
COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF QUICKLY...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING JUST LEFT
IT AS RAIN AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE MODELS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE THE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOVE THROUGH AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHC
OF RAIN SHOWERS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS. THIS MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS WILL GRADUALLY MIX THE RAIN WITH SNOW WET SNOW ON THANKSGIVING
DAY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY ALL SNOW THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW I WOULD THINK THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...EXCEPT NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE SOME
ACCUMULATING AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AT ALL SITES AT THE MOMENT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
AND I WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY. MVFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ON AND OFF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON LAKE ERIE FOR THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE WEST FLOW DIMINISHES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
RELATIVE LIGHT FLOW UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE SUNDAY AND
AN EAST WIND INCREASES ENOUGH TO PROBABLY BRING BACK A MARGINAL SCA
FOR AT LEAST THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTH
AND DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT WILL END THE SCA FOR A WHILE LATER SUN
NIGHT THROUGH TUE BUT AN INCREASING SW FLOW WED LOOKS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AGAIN AT SOME POINT. RIGHT NOW THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FOR THE TUE THROUGH WED
NIGHT TIME FRAME SO NOT CONFIDENT AS TO WHEN THE SCA MAY AGAIN BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...BC/KIELTYKA
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...ADAMS