000
FXUS61 KCLE 082354
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
654 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
DAY BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. A
FEW LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT RECORD LEVELS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
MAY ACTUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH BEFORE THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVES SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CALL A FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. IN
ANY EVENT THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE BACK VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL EXIST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROTECT THE AREA FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/TROPICAL LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
GRADUALLY WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR AND ALL HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IN TURN SLOWS DOWN THE NEXT FRONT AND SEEMS
REASONABLE. AIRMASS WILL WARM UP SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT ONE AS THE
SOUTH FLOW WILL TAKE UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO GET GOING...BUT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW NIGHTS NEAR NORMAL...TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WILL
DELAY THE NEXT FRONT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY 11/15.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY CIRRUS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWED BY MORE DENSE CIRRUS FOR MONDAY. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
FOG WITH SOME INCREASING WIND. AT THIS TIME I DON`T THINK THE FOG
WILL BE AS DENSE AS LAST NIGHT NEAR TOL BECAUSE OF SOME WIND
OVERNIGHT...THE SREF MODEL DISAGREES WITH THIS. MAINLY AREAS OF
MVFR BR BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY
EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILING MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONT MAY HAVE DISSIPATED. WITH THE GRADIENT BEING LIGHT THE
WIND FIELD OVER THE LAKE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY ONSHORE FLOW. THE
SOUTH FLOW WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AIRMASS SO WARM...THE
BEST WIND WILL NOT MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. NONETHELESS MONDAY
WILL BE BREEZIER AND MORE CHOPPY THAN TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FLOW SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTH BY
TUESDAY. WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES... WOULD EXPECT THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASE
ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KILN 082330
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
630 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE FA WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING. GIVEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUED TREND OF GOING WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT IN TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN DUE TO REMAINS OF IDA AND WHAT HAPPENS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE REMAINS OF IDA GO. SOUTHERN
SYSTEM OR REMAINS OF IDA WILL TRY TO ROB COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM OF
MOISTURE. KEPT CHANCE PRECIP ON TUESDAY AND TAPERED PRECIP OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND PUSH SYSTEM
TO THE EAST. FOR MONDAY WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. TUESDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE RETURNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
BUT THEN WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN MILD DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG
AT KLUK...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

000
FXUS61 KRLX 082323
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY.  MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BENIGN FCST PER HIGH PRESSURE.  LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS THIS AFTN AND MON COMPARED WITH SAT HAS LESSENED THE FIRE
THREAT.

WITH THE LIGHTER FLOW AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE SFC...UPSLOPE
STRATOCU OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT BE REPEATED TONIGHT.  HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN MON AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS STAGE
E...GIVING WAY TO S FLOW.

LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
OR NO WIND GIVEN HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  HIGHS MON
WERE ON HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL LOWER THAN HIGHS TODAY.
OUTCOME WILL BE A FUNCTION OF HIGH THICK THE HIGH CLOUDS GET AND HOW
QUICKLY...GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BATTLE OF THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. FOR OUR
AREA...HPC CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM SCENARIO...AND MAINTAIN SEPARATION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...UNTIL THEY FINALLY PHASE ALONG THE
MIDATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS SOLUTION IS
CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF. THIS ACCEPTED SCENARIO PUTS OUR AREA IN A
TIGHT GRADIENT FOR POPS...AND ENDS PRECIP EARLIER (ECMWF) THAN SOME
OF THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS AND GEM) INDICATE. LOOKS LIKE
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY GET VERY LITTLE IF ANY...WHILE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. THUS...HAVE RAISED
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW
POPS FAR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE OF THE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

MAX TEMPS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
NORTHWEST THAN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IN ANY
EVENT...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL
SETTLE BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY WITH
COLD ADVECTION. GOING FOR PRECIP TO END AS RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR WORKS
IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE IDA. 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...AS IT INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SE U.S....AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO
INDICATED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION...BUT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF NOW SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z NAM...TRENDING
TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINS OVER THE SE U.S....BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
LATE WED. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THAT OF
HPC...ECMWF...AND NAM...WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST REGION DRY FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT OR CALM WIND. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT FOG IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS 06Z-12Z INCLUDING EKN.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MDP

000
FXUS61 KCLE 082049
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
349 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN THE
DAY BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES. A
FEW LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN AT RECORD LEVELS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
MAY ACTUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH BEFORE THE COOLER AIR
ARRIVES SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO CALL A FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME. IN
ANY EVENT THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE BACK VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE OHIO INTO NW PA WHERE THE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL EXIST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PROTECT THE AREA FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE/TROPICAL LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
GRADUALLY WARMING IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR AND ALL HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IN TURN SLOWS DOWN THE NEXT FRONT AND SEEMS
REASONABLE. AIRMASS WILL WARM UP SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT ONE AS THE
SOUTH FLOW WILL TAKE UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO GET GOING...BUT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW NIGHTS NEAR NORMAL...TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WILL
DELAY THE NEXT FRONT UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY 11/15.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL
PERSIST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING EAST OF CLEVELAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO LIGHT I WILL JUST INDICATE
"VARIABLE" WINDS AT KERI. AM GUESSING THE LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT
MAKE IT TO KCLE. DEWPOINTS ARE UP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THE
SOUTH GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT KEEPING ANY FOG TO A
MINIMUM. MORE OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AND MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONT MAY HAVE DISSIPATED. WITH THE GRADIENT BEING LIGHT THE
WIND FIELD OVER THE LAKE IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY ONSHORE FLOW. THE
SOUTH FLOW WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AIRMASS SO WARM...THE
BEST WIND WILL NOT MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE. NONETHELESS MONDAY
WILL BE BREEZIER AND MORE CHOPPY THAN TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND THE FLOW SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTH BY
TUESDAY. WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES... WOULD EXPECT THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASE
ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES
OVERHEAD.



&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK

000
FXUS61 KILN 082039
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
339 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE FA WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING. GIVEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUED TREND OF GOING WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON PRECIP CHANCES ON TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
SOMEWHAT IN TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT HAS SLOWED DOWN DUE TO REMAINS OF IDA AND WHAT HAPPENS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE REMAINS OF IDA GO. SOUTHERN
SYSTEM OR REMAINS OF IDA WILL TRY TO ROB COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM OF
MOISTURE. KEPT CHANCE PRECIP ON TUESDAY AND TAPERED PRECIP OFF
TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND PUSH SYSTEM
TO THE EAST. FOR MONDAY WENT WITH WARMER GUIDANCE VALUES. TUESDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE RETURNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
BUT THEN WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN MILD DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SSW WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081951 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RATHER DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
THROUGH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS TRIES TO BRING
IDA REMNANTS NORTH AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF TO CREATE A
CLOSED LOW WELL INLAND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NAM KEEPS IDA
REMAINS SUPPRESSED FAR SOUTH, WITH OTHER MODELS HAVING VARIOUS
SCENARIOS BUT NONE AS EXTREME AS THE GFS. WHILE DEALING WITH
TROPICAL REMAINS IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC, WILL NOT FOLLOW GFS AND
WILL KEEP WITH A SOLUTION NEARER THE NAM, AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH HPC THINKING AS WELL. AS SUCH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH FRONT
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY.
BEGINNING OF FCST IS CLOSEST TO A NAM/EMCWF BLEND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE TROF AXIS. BEHIND THE TROF...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FASTER IN BUILDING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR THE LATE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.

LATE ON SATURDAY...A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM ITS ASSOCD SFC LOW INTO THE THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CHC OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING WILL RETURN AS
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY LATE ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE A FRONT BOUNDARY PASSING LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCHC POPS SATURDAY AND CHC POPS INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...KEEPING
THE TERMINALS IN A WEAK SRLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO ADVECT NEWD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. REDUCED CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCD PRECIP
WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081946
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RATHER DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
THROUGH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS TRIES TO BRING
IDA REMNANTS NORTH AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF TO CREATE A
CLOSED LOW WELL INLAND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NAM KEEPS IDA
REMAINS SUPPRESSED FAR SOUTH, WITH OTHER MODELS HAVING VARIOUS
SCENARIOS BUT NONE AS EXTREME AS THE GFS. WHILE DEALING WITH
TROPICAL REMAINS IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC, WILL NOT FOLLOW GFS AND
WILL KEEP WITH A SOLUTION NEARER THE NAM, AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH HPC THINKING AS WELL. AS SUCH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH FRONT
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY.
BEGINNING OF FCST IS CLOSEST TO A NAM/EMCWF BLEND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE TROF AXIS. BEHIND THE TROF...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FASTER IN BUILDING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR THE LATE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.

LATE ON SATURDAY...A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM ITS ASSOCD SFC LOW INTO THE THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CHC OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING WILL RETURN AS
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY LATE ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE A FRONT BOUNDARY PASSING LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCHC POPS SATURDAY AND CHC POPS INTO
SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 081942
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
213 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY.  MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BENIGN FCST PER HIGH PRESSURE.  LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS THIS AFTN AND MON COMPARED WITH SAT HAS LESSENED THE FIRE
THREAT.

WITH THE LIGHTER FLOW AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE SFC...UPSLOPE
STRATOCU OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT BE REPEATED TONIGHT.  HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN MON AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS STAGE
E...GIVING WAY TO S FLOW.

LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
OR NO WIND GIVEN HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  HIGHS MON
WERE ON HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL LOWER THAN HIGHS TODAY.
OUTCOME WILL BE A FUNCTION OF HIGH THICK THE HIGH CLOUDS GET AND HOW
QUICKLY...GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BATTLE OF THE MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. FOR OUR
AREA...HPC CONSENSUS IS TO MAINTAIN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM SCENARIO...AND MAINTAIN SEPARATION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...UNTIL THEY FINALLY PHASE ALONG THE
MIDATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. LOOKS LIKE THIS SOLUTION IS
CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF. THIS ACCEPTED SCENARIO PUTS OUR AREA IN A TIGHT
GRADIENT FOR POPS...AND ENDS PRECIP EARLIER (ECMWF) THAN SOME OF THE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS (GFS AND GEM) INDICATE. LOOKS LIKE THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MAY GET VERY LITTLE IF ANY...WHILE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A GOOD SLUG OF RAIN. THUS...HAVE RAISED POPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWERED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO GO WITH LOW
POPS FAR EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE OF THE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

MAX TEMPS THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE
NORTHWEST THAN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IN ANY
EVENT...TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL
SETTLE BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY WITH
COLD ADVECTION. GOING FOR PRECIP TO END AS RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE COLDER AIR WORKS
IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE IDA. 12Z NAM APPEARS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THURSDAY...AS IT INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SE U.S....AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE IDA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY. 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO
INDICATED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION...BUT WOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF NOW SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z NAM...TRENDING
TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINS OVER THE SE U.S....BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
LATE WED. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THAT OF
HPC...ECMWF...AND NAM...WHICH KEEPS THE FORECAST REGION DRY FOR
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FCST GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE.  WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS...MVFR LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTN VALLEYS TONIGHT
INCLUDING EKN.  FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SW SFC AND ALOFT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL/JMV
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KRLX 081746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1247 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY.  MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BENIGN FCST PER HIGH PRESSURE.  LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS THIS AFTN AND MON COMPARED WITH SAT HAS LESSENED THE FIRE
THREAT.

WITH THE LIGHTER FLOW AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE ABOVE THE SFC...UPSLOPE
STRATOCU OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL NOT BE REPEATED TONIGHT.  HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN MON AS UPPER RIDGE EXITS STAGE
E...GIVING WAY TO S FLOW.

LOWERED LOWS TONIGHT TO REFLECT LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
OR NO WIND GIVEN HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  HIGHS MON
WERE ON HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE BUT STILL LOWER THAN HIGHS TODAY.
OUTCOME WILL BE A FUNCTION OF HIGH THICK THE HIGH CLOUDS GET AND HOW
QUICKLY...GIVEN THE LOWER SUN ANGLE OF THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE MORE MOISTURE FROM EXTRATROPICAL REMAINS OF
IDA FURTHER N...INTO FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DELAYED UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z NAM DID NOT JOIN THE
GROUP...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SE.  HOWEVER...IT WAS THE
SLOWEST IN DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.  DELAYED THE WIND
SHIFT TO N UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION.  SO INCREASED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.  BUT THE COLDER AIR SHOULD BE COMING IN FROM THE N BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. ACTUALLY DECREASED SOME MAXIMUM READINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FIGURING 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR ZERO FOR A BRIEF TIME THEN.

WITH THE RIGHT REAR OF A 250 MB/UPPER JET ALSO HELPING IN
LIFT...INCREASED POPS FOR OUR S AND SE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DELAYING THE CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY.  KEPT
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS...TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER...IF NEED BE.

BACK TO MONDAY...WAS GUN SHY TO GO MUCH ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE...THINKING CIRRUS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.  WITH
THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EVEN CIRRUS CAN BE A FACTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FCST GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE.  WITH LIGHT FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEW POINTS...MVFR LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MTN VALLEYS TONIGHT
INCLUDING EKN.  FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SW SFC AND ALOFT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/KTB
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM

000
FXUS61 KCLE 081742
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1242 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MODIFY
SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMING UP A LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE FAIRLY
DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL APPEARS A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL MAKE A RUN AT RECORD LEVELS.

RECORDS FOR TODAY:

TOL 73 IN 1945    FDY 74 IN 1945
CLE 72 IN 1945    MFD 70 IN 1945
CAK 71 IN 1916    YNG 78 IN 1938
ERI 71 IN 1945

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. CANNOT SEE WHY IT
WON`T BE AS WARM TOMORROW AS IT WILL BE TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD HOLD THINGS BACK WOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS.
STILL...GIVEN A WARM START TOMORROW MORNING THINK MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 70. NEW 00Z MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. MODELS
TRYING TO BRING THE REMNANTS OF IDA UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL
SLOW THE FRONT DOWN SOME. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST FOR NOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN NE OH AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE COMES
IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS BRINGING THE HIGH IN. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT
THE NUMBERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AND WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THEN THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF AND GFSENS
HOLD THE FRONT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...HOLDING OFF THE PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT BUT INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL
PERSIST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING EAST OF CLEVELAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO LIGHT I WILL JUST INDICATE
"VARIABLE" WINDS AT KERI. AM GUESSING THE LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT
MAKE IT TO KCLE. DEWPOINTS ARE UP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THE
SOUTH GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT KEEPING ANY FOG TO A
MINIMUM. MORE OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AND MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE LAKE BUT SHOULD
FAVOR A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY BUT A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP THE LAKE FAIRLY CHOPPY
UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...RANDEL

000
FXUS61 KILN 081710
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE EAST COAST. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SUGGESTS CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK...WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST...SO SENT AN
UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO KEEP SKIES SKC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES A LTL EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CONTD TREND GOING ABOVE GUID
FOR LOWS.

ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE MID/UPR LEVEL MSTR TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN ON MONDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUID ENVELOPE FOR HIGHS MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/W TO SHARPEN UP AND DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/TUE NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NRN OHIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO SRN OHIO BY TUE AFTN. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLN/S TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH MAY BE DUE
TO INTERACTION DUE TO IDA COMING INTO THE GULF STATES. BASED ON
SLOWER FROPA WL INCREASE CLDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TREND LOWS ABOVE
GUIDANCE. FOR TUESDAY WL SHOW AN INCREASE TO CHC POPS DURG THE AFTN
WITH POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY
TUE NIGHT AND CLDS DECREASING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FROM MID WEEK ON. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SSW WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY
MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081624
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1124 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL CLOUDS FROM GRIDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
LEVELS...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 70S FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD. EXPECT MILD
MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH GFS/NAM DEPICT THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WELL TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR SO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WITH 60-65 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY
RESIDUAL SHWRS ENDING EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRING SHWRS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCLE 081622
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1122 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MODIFY
SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMING UP A LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE FAIRLY
DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL APPEARS A FEW LOCATIONS
WILL MAKE A RUN AT RECORD LEVELS.

RECORDS FOR TODAY:

TOL 73 IN 1945    FDY 74 IN 1945
CLE 72 IN 1945    MFD 70 IN 1945
CAK 71 IN 1916    YNG 78 IN 1938
ERI 71 IN 1945

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. CANNOT SEE WHY IT
WON`T BE AS WARM TOMORROW AS IT WILL BE TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD HOLD THINGS BACK WOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS.
STILL...GIVEN A WARM START TOMORROW MORNING THINK MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 70. NEW 00Z MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. MODELS
TRYING TO BRING THE REMNANTS OF IDA UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL
SLOW THE FRONT DOWN SOME. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST FOR NOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN NE OH AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE COMES
IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS BRINGING THE HIGH IN. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT
THE NUMBERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AND WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THEN THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF AND GFSENS
HOLD THE FRONT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...HOLDING OFF THE PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT BUT INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MAINLY FOR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG DEVELOPED OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
THERE WAS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE THAT WILL HAVE
LITTLE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREAS WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST DOMINATES. OTHER THAN THE EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY GOOD
VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BELIEVE
WINDS SHOULD BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING ON
MONDAY AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE LAKE BUT SHOULD
FAVOR A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY BUT A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP THE LAKE FAIRLY CHOPPY
UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...RANDEL

000
FXUS61 KILN 081440
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
940 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE EAST COAST. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SUGGESTS CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPS ARE ON TRACK...WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST...SO SENT AN
UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO KEEP SKIES SKC THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES A LTL EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CONTD TREND GOING ABOVE GUID
FOR LOWS.

ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE MID/UPR LEVEL MSTR TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN ON MONDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUID ENVELOPE FOR HIGHS MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/W TO SHARPEN UP AND DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/TUE NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NRN OHIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO SRN OHIO BY TUE AFTN. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLN/S TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH MAY BE DUE
TO INTERACTION DUE TO IDA COMING INTO THE GULF STATES. BASED ON
SLOWER FROPA WL INCREASE CLDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TREND LOWS ABOVE
GUIDANCE. FOR TUESDAY WL SHOW AN INCREASE TO CHC POPS DURG THE AFTN
WITH POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY
TUE NIGHT AND CLDS DECREASING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FROM MID WEEK ON. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT LUK
WHERE FOG WILL LOWER VISIBILITY UNTIL 14Z AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z.
SKIES WILL BE SKC EARLY WITH BKN CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE. WINDS
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081258
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIDGES...AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THERE SEEMS TO BE
SOME LIMITED BUILDING OF THESE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
SOME CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS GREENE/MARION COUNTIES DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
INVERSION DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM LEVELS...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 70S FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT MILD MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH GFS/NAM DEPICT THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WELL TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR SO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WITH 60-65 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY
RESIDUAL SHWRS ENDING EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRING SHWRS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCLE 081148
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
648 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPS TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE WEST AND 3 OR 4 DEGREES WARMER
IN THE EAST THAN SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
YDAY...STILL THINK HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. WILL
GO WITH LOW 70S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. NW PA WILL REMAIN THE
COOLEST...BUT EVEN THERE IT SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE DAY
WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS. DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. CANNOT SEE WHY IT
WON`T BE AS WARM TOMORROW AS IT WILL BE TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD HOLD THINGS BACK WOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS.
STILL...GIVEN A WARM START TOMORROW MORNING THINK MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 70. NEW 00Z MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. MODELS
TRYING TO BRING THE REMNANTS OF IDA UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL
SLOW THE FRONT DOWN SOME. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST FOR NOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN NE OH AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE COMES
IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS BRINGING THE HIGH IN. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT
THE NUMBERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AND WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THEN THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF AND GFSENS
HOLD THE FRONT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...HOLDING OFF THE PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT BUT INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR MAINLY FOR VISIBILITIES WITH FOG DEVELOPED OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING.
THERE WAS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE THAT WILL HAVE
LITTLE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREAS WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST DOMINATES. OTHER THAN THE EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY GOOD
VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BELIEVE
WINDS SHOULD BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING ON
MONDAY AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE LAKE BUT SHOULD
FAVOR A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY BUT A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP THE LAKE FAIRLY CHOPPY
UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...RANDEL

000
FXUS61 KILN 081134
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES BUILDING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT NORTH
WITH A SWRLY FLOW ACROSS ILN/S FA. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH MAINLY THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS HAVE
OPTED TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES A LTL EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CONTD TREND GOING ABOVE GUID
FOR LOWS.

ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE MID/UPR LEVEL MSTR TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN ON MONDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUID ENVELOPE FOR HIGHS MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/W TO SHARPEN UP AND DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/TUE NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NRN OHIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO SRN OHIO BY TUE AFTN. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLN/S TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH MAY BE DUE
TO INTERACTION DUE TO IDA COMING INTO THE GULF STATES. BASED ON
SLOWER FROPA WL INCREASE CLDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TREND LOWS ABOVE
GUIDANCE. FOR TUESDAY WL SHOW AN INCREASE TO CHC POPS DURG THE AFTN
WITH POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY
TUE NIGHT AND CLDS DECREASING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FROM MID WEEK ON. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT LUK
WHERE FOG WILL LOWER VISIBILITY UNTIL 14Z AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z.
SKIES WILL BE SKC EARLY WITH BKN CIRRUS MOVING IN LATE. WINDS
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KRLX 081040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
540 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEAUTIFUL RUN OF FALL WEATHER CONTINUES. STRATOCU DID MANAGE TO FORM
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING.  MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN MAXING OUT THE H850 MOISTURE AT 09Z AND THEN
DRYING IT UP...SO PLAYED SKY GRIDS TO THAT THINKING.  EXPECTING
SCATTERED CLOUDS REMAINING AT BEST BY SUNRISE.

ONCE THOSE CLOUDS GO AWAY...NO OTHERS WILL TAKE THEIR PLACE TODAY AS
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT LESS TODAY.
WHILE MIN RH VALUES STILL DIP INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY.

WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 00Z TONIGHT...COULD SEE
SOME CIRRUS TRY TO STREAK IN LATE TONIGHT.

GOT BURNED GOING CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS YESTERDAY.  WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN H850 TEMPS TODAY...WENT WITH HIGHS A TOUCH ABOVE
THOSE OF YESTERDAY...WHICH IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS...OR EVEN
ABOVE.  WENT WITH MORE OF A BLEND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE MORE MOISTURE FROM EXTRATROPICAL REMAINS OF
IDA FURTHER N...INTO FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DELAYED UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z NAM DID NOT JOIN THE
GROUP...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SE.  HOWEVER...IT WAS THE
SLOWEST IN DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.  DELAYED THE WIND
SHIFT TO N UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION.  SO INCREASED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.  BUT THE COLDER AIR SHOULD BE COMING IN FROM THE N BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. ACTUALLY DECREASED SOME MAXIMUM READINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FIGURING 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR ZERO FOR A BRIEF TIME THEN.

WITH THE RIGHT REAR OF A 250 MB/UPPER JET ALSO HELPING IN
LIFT...INCREASED POPS FOR OUR S AND SE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DELAYING THE CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY.  KEPT
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS...TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER...IF NEED BE.

BACK TO MONDAY...WAS GUN SHY TO GO MUCH ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE...THINKING CIRRUS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.  WITH
THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EVEN CIRRUS CAN BE A FACTOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REMAINING STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  AFTER THAT...P6SM SKC WITH LIGHT
WINDS AREAWIDE.  AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...SOME
CIRRUS MAY MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT VFR CONTINUES.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL

000
FXUS61 KRLX 080921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE INCREASES
TUESDAY FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND FROM FRONT TO THE WEST.
COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BEAUTIFUL RUN OF FALL WEATHER CONTINUES. STRATOCU DID MANAGE TO FORM
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING.  MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT IN MAXING OUT THE H850 MOISTURE AT 09Z AND THEN
DRYING IT UP...SO PLAYED SKY GRIDS TO THAT THINKING.  EXPECTING
SCATTERED CLOUDS REMAINING AT BEST BY SUNRISE.

ONCE THOSE CLOUDS GO AWAY...NO OTHERS WILL TAKE THEIR PLACE TODAY AS
COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT LESS TODAY.
WHILE MIN RH VALUES STILL DIP INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY.

WITH H500 RIDGE AXIS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 00Z TONIGHT...COULD SEE
SOME CIRRUS TRY TO STREAK IN LATE TONIGHT.

GOT BURNED GOING CLOSER TO MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS YESTERDAY.  WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN H850 TEMPS TODAY...WENT WITH HIGHS A TOUCH ABOVE
THOSE OF YESTERDAY...WHICH IS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS...OR EVEN
ABOVE.  WENT WITH MORE OF A BLEND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE MORE MOISTURE FROM EXTRATROPICAL REMAINS OF
IDA FURTHER N...INTO FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT DELAYED UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z NAM DID NOT JOIN THE
GROUP...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SE.  HOWEVER...IT WAS THE
SLOWEST IN DRYING OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY.  DELAYED THE WIND
SHIFT TO N UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL CIRCULATION.  SO INCREASED THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT.  BUT THE COLDER AIR SHOULD BE COMING IN FROM THE N BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. ACTUALLY DECREASED SOME MAXIMUM READINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FIGURING 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR ZERO FOR A BRIEF TIME THEN.

WITH THE RIGHT REAR OF A 250 MB/UPPER JET ALSO HELPING IN
LIFT...INCREASED POPS FOR OUR S AND SE COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...DELAYING THE CLEARING UNTIL WEDNESDAY.  KEPT
POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY IN OUR SE COUNTIES. HAVE PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS...TO INCREASE POPS HIGHER...IF NEED BE.

BACK TO MONDAY...WAS GUN SHY TO GO MUCH ABOVE MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE...THINKING CIRRUS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH.  WITH
THE LOW SUN ANGLE...EVEN CIRRUS CAN BE A FACTOR.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT SSW WINDS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.


AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/JS/JMV/RPY
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL

000
FXUS61 KILN 080920
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE BACK IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE
UNITED STATES BUILDING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT NORTH
WITH A SWRLY FLOW ACROSS ILN/S FA. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
WITH MAINLY THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS HAVE
OPTED TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR TODAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES A LTL EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE
IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CONTD TREND GOING ABOVE GUID
FOR LOWS.

ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE MID/UPR LEVEL MSTR TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN ON MONDAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE WARM
SIDE OF GUID ENVELOPE FOR HIGHS MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/W TO SHARPEN UP AND DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/TUE NIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH INTO
NRN OHIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO SRN OHIO BY TUE AFTN. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLN/S TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH MAY BE DUE
TO INTERACTION DUE TO IDA COMING INTO THE GULF STATES. BASED ON
SLOWER FROPA WL INCREASE CLDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TREND LOWS ABOVE
GUIDANCE. FOR TUESDAY WL SHOW AN INCREASE TO CHC POPS DURG THE AFTN
WITH POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY
TUE NIGHT AND CLDS DECREASING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FROM MID WEEK ON. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS
POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT LUK
WHERE FOG MAY LOWER VISIBILITY TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILING FORMATION TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
MOISTURE AT AROUND 2500 FT. CIRRUS DECK WILL MOVE IN AROUND 00Z. WINDS
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KCLE 080824
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
324 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO RECORD TEMPS TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE WEST AND 3 OR 4 DEGREES WARMER
IN THE EAST THAN SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
YDAY...STILL THINK HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. WILL
GO WITH LOW 70S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. NW PA WILL REMAIN THE
COOLEST...BUT EVEN THERE IT SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE DAY
WILL START OUT CLEAR WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS. DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE A LAKE BREEZE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. CANNOT SEE WHY IT
WON`T BE AS WARM TOMORROW AS IT WILL BE TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT
COULD HOLD THINGS BACK WOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS.
STILL...GIVEN A WARM START TOMORROW MORNING THINK MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 70. NEW 00Z MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. MODELS
TRYING TO BRING THE REMNANTS OF IDA UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL
SLOW THE FRONT DOWN SOME. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST FOR NOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN NE OH AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE COMES
IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS BRINGING THE HIGH IN. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT
THE NUMBERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AND WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THEN THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF AND GFSENS
HOLD THE FRONT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...HOLDING OFF THE PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT BUT INCLUDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT SOME MVFR BR TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A SHORT
TIME BUT MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM
MID MORNING ON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...SOME MVFR BR MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE
LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE LAKE BUT SHOULD
FAVOR A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY BUT A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP THE LAKE FAIRLY CHOPPY
UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...RANDEL

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080647
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIDGES...AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THERE SEEMS TO BE
SOME LIMITED BUILDING OF THESE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
SOME CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS GREENE/MARION COUNTIES DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
INVERSION DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM LEVELS...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 70S FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT MILD MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH GFS/NAM DEPICT THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WELL TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR SO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WITH 60-65 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY
RESIDUAL SHWRS ENDING EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRING SHWRS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR VFR CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FKL-DUJ. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE MVFR VIS IN
FOG THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ZZV/FKL. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 080540
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF NAM AND GFS HAD 850 MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA BUT NEW RUN OF GFS CUTS WAY BACK ON MOISTURE SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS OVER NIGHT.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST.  SUNDAY FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND NO WIND ISSUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. EVEN THE STUBBORN OUTLIER CANADIAN
MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT MORE SEPARATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT THE
GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GO MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF POPS AND MINIMIZE QPF.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HOLDING OFF
TIL TUESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

FRONT PUSHES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FEW STRATOCUMULUS ARE FORMING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...AND WILL
AFFECT EKN...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CKB THROUGH SUNRISE.  THINK CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR BUT RANGE FROM 3500-4000 FEET. 25-30 KNOT WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.  THIS
SHOULD LESSEN BY 10Z OR SO.

MOISTURE DRIES UP BY SUNRISE...WITH SKC AREAWIDE FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE DAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS.


AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/JS/JMV/RPY
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL

000
FXUS61 KILN 080537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1237 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
TAKEN A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM AND IT SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME MORE ON THE 925 MB MOISTURE FOR LATER TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER LYING AREAS AS
THEY SHOULD HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND APPROACHING SYSTEM
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN TODAYS HIGH TEMPS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT DUE TO REMAINS OF IDA. WITH THE
SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH ITS
PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY IDA...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL ALSO ROB THE COLD
FRONT OF MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE. SO ONLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT LUK
WHERE FOG MAY LOWER VISIBILITY TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILING FORMATION TONIGHT BUT IT APPEARS MODELS HAVE OVERDONE
MOISTURE AT AROUND 2500 FT. CIRRUS DECK WILL MOVE IN AROUND 00Z. WINDS
WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KCLE 080456
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1156 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PASSES MAINLY EAST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE DID
CAUSE SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT THEY WERE IN WESTERN NEW YORK.
SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO FORECAST CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS MOMENT LEANING AWAY FROM THAT AND WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME
FOG WILL FORM BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE ZONES/GRIDS. MADE
SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKE AS THE WINDS WILL DECREASE...WENT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AND THE TRAILING END OF THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. NOTHING TO THE WEST BUT A DRY AND WARM
AIRMASS. GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE IS WARM SUNDAY AND I BELIEVE EVERY
DEGREE OF IT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. THE
SOUTH WIND MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING AGAIN ACROSS NW PA AND
THE WIND MAY COME ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WHERE TEMPS MAY BE SUPPRESSED A FEW DEGREES.

TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
SO WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY BUT NO REASON TO THINK IT WILL NOT
BE AS WARM ON MONDAY AS SUNDAY...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
FORECAST WILL BE A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH
TENDS TO GET PULLED DOWN BY CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS VARY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE NAM/WRF IS
GETTING FASTER BY THE MINUTE BRINGING THE FRONT IN EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS NW OHIO BEFORE 12Z
TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT
SO VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS VERY LOW POP GUIDANCE FOR
TUESDAY BUT ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT BRIEFLY GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH FLOW TRYING TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
WE TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY WITH
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AND
WE WILL ABRUPTLY FIND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL
PROBABLY FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. ECMWF SLIGHTLY QUICKER
BUT EITHER WAY LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AT MOST CAN
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND DEPARTING CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OH
AND NW PA DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY...BUT CAN SEE
THEM CLOSER TO OR EVEN A FEW ABOVE 60. GUIDANCE APPEARING TO DIVERGE
FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE WITH
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW INDICATED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WITH
TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES. EXPECT SOME MVFR BR TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A SHORT
TIME BUT MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM
MID MORNING ON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...SOME MVFR BR MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL
TURN WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY
HEADLINES WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR QUIETER CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ABE

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080252
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SKIES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD DAWN AS RECENT NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW LIFTING NEAR THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LAYER THAT COULD
INDUCE CLOUDS TO FORM THEN. ONCE THE WARM FRONTAL TYPE INVERSION
BREAKS MID MORNING...THE CLOUDS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE.

RAISED FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON
WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT CLOUDS TO
THWART NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. TWEAKED FORECASTED HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY UP BY A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S AND RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED MAINLY AT
RELATIVELY NEW STATIONS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING, MAGNITUDE
OF COLD AIR, AND DEPTH OF UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.  EARLY
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL THUS BE OF GENERAL
PERSISTENCE WITH DECLINING PRECIP PROBABILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THEREAFTER, QUICK MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO, THEN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IS EXPECTED WITH FLAT RIDGE PROJECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY.  THAT RIDGE, WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES TO RETARD SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, WILL
PROVIDE A DRY CLOSE TO THE WORK-WEEK.

BY SATURDAY, NEXT LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE APPROACH SO PRECIP
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...HEDGED BY GOING WITH MVFR STRATUS AND
FOG FOR TAF SITES NORTH OF THE KZZV-KPIT CORRIDOR WHILE
MAINTAINING CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS SOUTH.

EXPECT AS WARM FRONTAL INVERSION BREAKS BY MID MORNING FOR ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH 4-6 KTS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS MOVES THROUGH FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCLE 080226
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
926 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PASSES MAINLY EAST OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE DID
CAUSE SOME CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT THEY WERE IN WESTERN NEW YORK.
SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO FORECAST CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS MOMENT LEANING AWAY FROM THAT AND WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME
FOG WILL FORM BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE ZONES/GRIDS. MADE
SOME TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOWS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
LAKE AS THE WINDS WILL DECREASE...WENT COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AND THE TRAILING END OF THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. NOTHING TO THE WEST BUT A DRY AND WARM
AIRMASS. GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE IS WARM SUNDAY AND I BELIEVE EVERY
DEGREE OF IT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. THE
SOUTH WIND MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING AGAIN ACROSS NW PA AND
THE WIND MAY COME ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WHERE TEMPS MAY BE SUPPRESSED A FEW DEGREES.

TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
SO WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY BUT NO REASON TO THINK IT WILL NOT
BE AS WARM ON MONDAY AS SUNDAY...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
FORECAST WILL BE A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH
TENDS TO GET PULLED DOWN BY CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS VARY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE NAM/WRF IS
GETTING FASTER BY THE MINUTE BRINGING THE FRONT IN EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS NW OHIO BEFORE 12Z
TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT
SO VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS VERY LOW POP GUIDANCE FOR
TUESDAY BUT ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT BRIEFLY GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH FLOW TRYING TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
WE TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY WITH
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AND
WE WILL ABRUPTLY FIND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL
PROBABLY FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. ECMWF SLIGHTLY QUICKER
BUT EITHER WAY LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AT MOST CAN
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND DEPARTING CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OH
AND NW PA DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY...BUT CAN SEE
THEM CLOSER TO OR EVEN A FEW ABOVE 60. GUIDANCE APPEARING TO DIVERGE
FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE WITH
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW INDICATED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WITH
TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME MVFR BR TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
FROM MID MORNING ON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...SOME MVFR BR MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL
TURN WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON
MONDAY. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY
HEADLINES WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR QUIETER CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ABE

000
FXUS61 KILN 080222
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
922 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES ARE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE
TAKEN A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM AND IT SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF
SOME MORE ON THE 925 MB MOISTURE FOR LATER TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOWER LYING AREAS AS
THEY SHOULD HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND APPROACHING SYSTEM
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN TODAYS HIGH TEMPS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT DUE TO REMAINS OF IDA. WITH THE
SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH ITS
PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY IDA...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL ALSO ROB THE COLD
FRONT OF MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE. SO ONLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IS PROVIDING FOR CLEAR
SKIES ATTM. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND 925 MB.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A
BIT FROM WHAT WAS SHOWN BY THE 12Z RUNS. AS A RESULT...STILL DO NOT
HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY CLOUDS WILL
FORM. WILL THEREFORE JUST ALLOW FOR SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

000
FXUS61 KILN 072349
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE INDICATING STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE NOT
TOTALLY BOUGHT INTO THIS AS MODELS WERE ALSO INDICATING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED. HAVE ADDED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN FA CLOSER TO FRONT THAT WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WITH WAA WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND APPROACHING SYSTEM
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN TODAYS HIGH TEMPS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT DUE TO REMAINS OF IDA. WITH THE
SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH ITS
PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY IDA...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL ALSO ROB THE COLD
FRONT OF MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE. SO ONLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IS PROVIDING FOR CLEAR
SKIES ATTM. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND 925 MB.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE 18Z MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A
BIT FROM WHAT WAS SHOWN BY THE 12Z RUNS. AS A RESULT...STILL DO NOT
HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER OR NOT ANY CLOUDS WILL
FORM. WILL THEREFORE JUST ALLOW FOR SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

000
FXUS61 KRLX 072328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
628 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF NAM AND GFS HAD 850 MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA BUT NEW RUN OF GFS CUTS WAY BACK ON MOISTURE SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS OVER NIGHT.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST.  SUNDAY FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND NO WIND ISSUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. EVEN THE STUBBORN OUTLIER CANADIAN
MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT MORE SEPARATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT THE
GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GO MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF POPS AND MINIMIZE QPF.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HOLDING OFF
TIL TUESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

FRONT PUSHES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT SSW WINDS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.


AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/JS/JMV/RPY
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JS

000
FXUS61 KCLE 072327
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
627 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PASSES MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO WEATHER...NOT EVEN CLOUDS...WITH THE
FRONT. WIND WILL BE LIGHTENING UP TONIGHT SO A WIND SHIFT MAY NOT
OCCUR AS THE WIND MAY JUST BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE
TONIGHT. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE I DOUBT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL NEAR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO I SUPPOSE PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE BUT PROBABLY NOT DENSE...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN
THE PUBLIC ZONE/TEXT/GRAPHICAL FORECAST. VERY WARM AIR TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH AND AS LONG AS THE WIND STAYS UP TONIGHT THE TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL MUCH AFTER THE INITIAL DROP AFTER SUNSET. WIND WILL
PROBABLY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS INLAND NW OHIO FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONIGHT AND PROTECTED AREAS WILL GET
COOLER OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD UP IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
WITH LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AND THE TRAILING END OF THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. NOTHING TO THE WEST BUT A DRY AND WARM
AIRMASS. GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE IS WARM SUNDAY AND I BELIEVE EVERY
DEGREE OF IT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. THE
SOUTH WIND MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING AGAIN ACROSS NW PA AND
THE WIND MAY COME ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WHERE TEMPS MAY BE SUPPRESSED A FEW DEGREES.

TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
SO WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY BUT NO REASON TO THINK IT WILL NOT
BE AS WARM ON MONDAY AS SUNDAY...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
FORECAST WILL BE A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH
TENDS TO GET PULLED DOWN BY CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS VARY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE NAM/WRF IS
GETTING FASTER BY THE MINUTE BRINGING THE FRONT IN EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS NW OHIO BEFORE 12Z
TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT
SO VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS VERY LOW POP GUIDANCE FOR
TUESDAY BUT ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT BRIEFLY GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH FLOW TRYING TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
WE TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY WITH
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AND
WE WILL ABRUPTLY FIND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL
PROBABLY FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. ECMWF SLIGHTLY QUICKER
BUT EITHER WAY LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AT MOST CAN
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND DEPARTING CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OH
AND NW PA DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY...BUT CAN SEE
THEM CLOSER TO OR EVEN A FEW ABOVE 60. GUIDANCE APPEARING TO DIVERGE
FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE WITH
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW INDICATED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WITH
TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME MVFR BR TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK FOR A
SHORT TIME BUT MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. EXPECT VFR CONDTIONS
FROM MID MORNING ON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...SOME MVFR BR MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW WAVES TO COME DOWN ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL TURN
WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON MONDAY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY HEADLINES
WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR QUIETER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ABE

000
FXUS61 KCLE 072046
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PASSES MAINLY NORTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS AS IF IT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
TONIGHT. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO WEATHER...NOT EVEN CLOUDS...WITH THE
FRONT. WIND WILL BE LIGHTENING UP TONIGHT SO A WIND SHIFT MAY NOT
OCCUR AS THE WIND MAY JUST BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE
TONIGHT. WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE I DOUBT
THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL NEAR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO I SUPPOSE PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE BUT PROBABLY NOT DENSE...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN
THE PUBLIC ZONE/TEXT/GRAPHICAL FORECAST. VERY WARM AIR TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH AND AS LONG AS THE WIND STAYS UP TONIGHT THE TEMPS WILL
NOT FALL MUCH AFTER THE INITIAL DROP AFTER SUNSET. WIND WILL
PROBABLY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS INLAND NW OHIO FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATER TONIGHT AND PROTECTED AREAS WILL GET
COOLER OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD UP IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
WITH LOWER 50S NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AND THE TRAILING END OF THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. NOTHING TO THE WEST BUT A DRY AND WARM
AIRMASS. GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE IS WARM SUNDAY AND I BELIEVE EVERY
DEGREE OF IT WITH MID AND UPPER 60S LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. THE
SOUTH WIND MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING AGAIN ACROSS NW PA AND
THE WIND MAY COME ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST LAKESHORE EAST OF
CLEVELAND WHERE TEMPS MAY BE SUPPRESSED A FEW DEGREES.

TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
SO WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY BUT NO REASON TO THINK IT WILL NOT
BE AS WARM ON MONDAY AS SUNDAY...IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
FORECAST WILL BE A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH
TENDS TO GET PULLED DOWN BY CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS VARY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE NAM/WRF IS
GETTING FASTER BY THE MINUTE BRINGING THE FRONT IN EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS NW OHIO BEFORE 12Z
TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT
SO VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS VERY LOW POP GUIDANCE FOR
TUESDAY BUT ONE WOULD HAVE TO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
IT BRIEFLY GETS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WITH FLOW TRYING TO BECOME ANTICYCLONIC
WE TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE MUCH LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY WITH
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AND
WE WILL ABRUPTLY FIND TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL
PROBABLY FEEL A LITTLE CHILLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. ECMWF SLIGHTLY QUICKER
BUT EITHER WAY LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AT MOST CAN
SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND DEPARTING CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OH
AND NW PA DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS
SHOULD WARM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR FRIDAY...BUT CAN SEE
THEM CLOSER TO OR EVEN A FEW ABOVE 60. GUIDANCE APPEARING TO DIVERGE
FOR THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE WITH
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION. ECMWF SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW INDICATED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS WITH
TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE
INDICATING HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH RADIATING CONDITIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER OVERNIGHT.
IF WINDS DO CONTINUE AROUND 5KT OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. MENTIONED MAINLY MVFR VIS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
CONFIDENT FOR IFR AT FDY. SITES FURTHER EAST MENTIONED SOME SCT
LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH POSSIBLE GOING BKN LATE CREATING MVFR
CIGS. EXPECTING ANY MVFR CONDITIONS TO END BY 14Z SUN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS /VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW WAVES TO COME DOWN ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER THE LAKE SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT LOCATED NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL TURN
WINDS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON MONDAY.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY HEADLINES
WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR QUIETER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...ABE

000
FXUS61 KILN 072037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
337 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE INDICATING STRATUS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE NOT
TOTALLY BOUGHT INTO THIS AS MODELS WERE ALSO INDICATING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED. HAVE ADDED A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN FA CLOSER TO FRONT THAT WILL BE POSITIONED
OVER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. WITH WAA WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND APPROACHING SYSTEM
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ESPECIALLY GIVEN TODAYS HIGH TEMPS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT DUE TO REMAINS OF IDA. WITH THE
SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN...PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH ITS
PROGRESS MAY BE SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY IDA...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL ALSO ROB THE COLD
FRONT OF MUCH OF ITS MOISTURE. SO ONLY CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN AND MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS BUT PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE
OCCLY TO 20-25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDING. ALL
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT WITH
MVFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE
NEAREST SUCH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
DISSIPATING. STILL...WITH ALL 3 MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON LOW
CLOUDS...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KCVG...WHICH MAY BE SOUTH OF THE THICKEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL

000
FXUS61 KRLX 071942
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF NAM AND GFS HAD 850 MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA BUT NEW RUN OF GFS CUTS WAY BACK ON MOISTURE SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS OVER NIGHT.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST.  SUNDAY FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND NO WIND ISSUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO
SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. EVEN THE STUBBORN OUTLIER CANADIAN
MODEL SUGGESTS A BIT MORE SEPARATION THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT THE
GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GO MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF POPS AND MINIMIZE QPF.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 70S MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT PRECIP HOLDING OFF
TIL TUESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

FRONT PUSHES THRU TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXITING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AAR/JMV/RPY
NEAR TERM...AAR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...AAR

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071830
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WENT JUST
UNDER MOS TONIGHT AS WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLE DECOUPLING
MAY BE ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN A BIT. NEAR WARM MOS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S AND RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED MAINLY AT
RELATIVELY NEW STATIONS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING, MAGNITUDE
OF COLD AIR, AND DEPTH OF UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.  EARLY
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL THUS BE OF GENERAL
PERSISTENCE WITH DECLINING PRECIP PROBABILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THEREAFTER, QUICK MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO, THEN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IS EXPECTED WITH FLAT RIDGE PROJECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY.  THAT RIDGE, WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES TO RETARD SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, WILL
PROVIDE A DRY CLOSE TO THE WORK-WEEK.

BY SATURDAY, NEXT LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE APPROACH SO PRECIP
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
CANADA.  RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS HAS/WILL
GENERATE AFTERNOON  WIND OF APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
SLIGHTLY OVER 20KTS.

WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES AND AS SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY IN THE EARLY MORNING OF SUNDAY.  HAVE THUS FORECAST SOME
VFR CEILINGS AT FKL AND DUJ AS PER EXPECTED PROGRESS OF THAT
WEAKENING FRONT, WHICH SHOULD WASH OUT RAPIDLY AS SUNDAY MORNING
PROGRESSES.

GENERAL VFR IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO VFR WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KCLE 071748
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1248 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE. NICE LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. UPWARD MOTION IS LOSING OUT TO
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND JUST NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB THAT WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP. I THINK THAT IT WILL
BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE TO WORRY ABOUT AND WILL GO WITH "MOSTLY
SUNNY" FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND WARM
ADVECTION RAISED MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 60S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LESS WARM THOUGH
BUT NOT BAD AT ALL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD ENJOY LOT`S OF
SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. READINGS COULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK EVERY PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT TIMING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NW OH BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE EAST. WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED TO GO WITH
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS FOR TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AROUND A 50
POP MOST AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
ALL AREAS. TEMPS MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH SEASONABLE
READINGS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODELS THEN SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS BRINGS FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT
WHILE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WOULD KEEP
FRIDAY DRY. THIS RUN OF THE GFS IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY`S
12Z RUN AND THE 00Z GFSENS KEEPS THE FRONT BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. IT SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE
INDICATING HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH RADIATING CONDITIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES OR LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER OVERNIGHT.
IF WINDS DO CONTINUE AROUND 5KT OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY. MENTIONED MAINLY MVFR VIS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH MOST
CONFIDENT FOR IFR AT FDY. SITES FURTHER EAST MENTIONED SOME SCT
LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH POSSIBLE GOING BKN LATE CREATING MVFR
CIGS. EXPECTING ANY MVFR CONDITIONS TO END BY 14Z SUN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS /VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. WITH THIS FLOW WAVES CLOSE
TO SHORE SHOULDN`T  BE TOO HIGH BUT RISING TO 3 TO 5 FEET FURTHER
OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK IN. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE  TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
PROVIDING FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TO
SEE THE WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...RANDEL

000
FXUS61 KILN 071740
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1240 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM UP CONTINUES TODAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE IS SOME LIMITED 850
HPA MOISTURE...MID AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS FEW
IF ANY...SO UPDATED FORECAST TO GO SUNNY AREA WIDE. 12Z ILN
SOUNDING SUGGESTS MAX TEMP OF 68 TODAY. THIS SEEMS A BIT
HIGH...BUT GIVEN FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE...TWEAKED TEMPS UPWARD
SLIGHTLY IN SEVERAL SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS ARE SIMILAR WITH FLOW AMPLIFYING AND RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EAST. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ACRS
THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. GIVEN SRLY
FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME SCTD CLDS HAVE TRENDED TONIGHTS LOWS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WITH THE HIGH REESTABLISHING ITSELF ON SUNDAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA EXPECT 8H TEMPS TO WARM UP TO
BETWEEN 13C AND 14.5 C ACRS ILN/S FA. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS ABOVE GUID
TEMPS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

FLOW BEGINS TO BACK ON MONDAY WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. DURING THE DAY ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLDS.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND SREF MEAN HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE FAR NW TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL WILL PASS THRU ON TUESDAY. RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
AND WITH THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IT IS RUNNING THROUGH...THIS
TREND/SOLUTION APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AIRMASS WITH
SEASONAL HIGHS AND COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS.

TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IN THE PLAINS FOR MID
WEEK...MINIMUM TEMPS WED AND THURS MORNINGS COULD BE A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO CONTINUE
OCCLY TO 20-25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDING. ALL
MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT WITH
MVFR CIGS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH GIVEN THE
NEAREST SUCH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
DISSIPATING. STILL...WITH ALL 3 MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON LOW
CLOUDS...DECIDED TO INTRODUCE MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KCVG...WHICH MAY BE SOUTH OF THE THICKEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...HAWBLITZEL

000
FXUS61 KRLX 071720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1128 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS THE RULE THROUGH SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF NAM AND GFS HAD 850 MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA BUT NEW RUN OF GFS CUTS WAY BACK ON MOISTURE SO
HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS OVER NIGHT.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
FORECAST.  SUNDAY FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVED WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS AND NO WIND ISSUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARING ON ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP
MOISTURE STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY WITH SOUTHERN MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STILL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF US SUNDAY...HERALDING THE
WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE IS SO MARGINAL WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY. BIG
QUESTION IS HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS WITH THIS FRONT.  GFS SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.

HARD TO BELIEVE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS FAST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS.
INCREASED POPS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN KEPT CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LOWERED POPS FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END ACROSS THAT AREA BY NOON ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL

000
FXUS61 KRLX 071634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1128 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK VORT OVER IL/IN ATTM GENERATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME. UPDATED
DEWPOINTS...WIND..RH AND SKY TO KEEP IN LINE WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTED AND TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY GOOD. MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
TOO HIGH AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN LOWER SO HAVE MIN TEMPS BELOW
MAV. CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO DRY WITH DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOME WIND CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RAISE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARING ON ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP
MOISTURE STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY WITH SOUTHERN MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STILL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF US SUNDAY...HERALDING THE
WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE IS SO MARGINAL WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON THE MODELS FOR SATURDAY HOWEVER...SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIRRUS OVERHEAD AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.  ANOTHER
RIPPLE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY.  THIS ONE WILL SERVE TO
BUMP UP WIND GUSTS...UP TO 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS LATER TODAY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PROVIDED FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY FORMING A BORDERLINE MVFR CEILING
ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...CL

000
FXUS61 KCLE 071544
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1044 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
PROVIDE A WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OUT THERE. NICE LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD
OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. UPWARD MOTION IS LOSING OUT TO
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND JUST NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY ALTHOUGH
THERE IS ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION AROUND 850 MB THAT WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP. I THINK THAT IT WILL
BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE TO WORRY ABOUT AND WILL GO WITH "MOSTLY
SUNNY" FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND WARM
ADVECTION RAISED MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY...MOSTLY IN THE LOWER AND
MID 60S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LESS WARM THOUGH
BUT NOT BAD AT ALL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD ENJOY LOT`S OF
SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. READINGS COULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK EVERY PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT TIMING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NW OH BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE EAST. WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED TO GO WITH
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS FOR TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AROUND A 50
POP MOST AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
ALL AREAS. TEMPS MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH SEASONABLE
READINGS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODELS THEN SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS BRINGS FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT
WHILE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WOULD KEEP
FRIDAY DRY. THIS RUN OF THE GFS IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY`S
12Z RUN AND THE 00Z GFSENS KEEPS THE FRONT BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. IT SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY...THEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL LIKELY FORM. FOR NOW JUST CARRIED MVFR VSBYS IN THE FOG
AFTER 06Z MOST AREAS...THOUGH SREF AND SOME OF THE MAV/MET MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING NW OHIO GOING IFR IN BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE 12KT TO
18KT WITH GUSTS OF 25KT TO 30KT. DIDN`T INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ENOUGH
AND EXPECTING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE RATHER THAN LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS /VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. WITH THIS FLOW WAVES CLOSE
TO SHORE SHOULDN`T  BE TOO HIGH BUT RISING TO 3 TO 5 FEET FURTHER
OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK IN. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE  TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
PROVIDING FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TO
SEE THE WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...RANDEL

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071543
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE DEGREES AS MORNING
IS OFF TO A WARMER START. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-70 REACHING THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MID
CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED
TO CLIP THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...DURING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KILN 071511
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1011 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM UP CONTINUES TODAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE IS SOME LIMITED 850
HPA MOISTURE...MID AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS FEW
IF ANY...SO UPDATED FORECAST TO GO SUNNY AREA WIDE. 12Z ILN
SOUNDING SUGGESTS MAX TEMP OF 68 TODAY. THIS SEEMS A BIT
HIGH...BUT GIVEN FULL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE...TWEAKED TEMPS UPWARD
SLIGHTLY IN SEVERAL SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS ARE SIMILAR WITH FLOW AMPLIFYING AND RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EAST. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ACRS
THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. GIVEN SRLY
FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME SCTD CLDS HAVE TRENDED TONIGHTS LOWS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WITH THE HIGH REESTABLISHING ITSELF ON SUNDAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA EXPECT 8H TEMPS TO WARM UP TO
BETWEEN 13C AND 14.5 C ACRS ILN/S FA. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS ABOVE GUID
TEMPS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

FLOW BEGINS TO BACK ON MONDAY WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. DURING THE DAY ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLDS.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND SREF MEAN HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE FAR NW TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL WILL PASS THRU ON TUESDAY. RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
AND WITH THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IT IS RUNNING THROUGH...THIS
TREND/SOLUTION APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AIRMASS WITH
SEASONAL HIGHS AND COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS.

TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IN THE PLAINS FOR MID
WEEK...MINIMUM TEMPS WED AND THURS MORNINGS COULD BE A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT LUK AFTER
06Z. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND NEW
GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS WELL OVER 20 KNOTS. SKY COVER WILL BE
SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KCLE 071141
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. CURRENTLY QUITE A BIT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A BACK EDGE TO THIS CLOUDINESS AND EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO
ENJOY A LOT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA.  THIS SHOULD NOT BE A
BIG DEAL AND CAN PROBABLY GET AWAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS TODAY.
PRETTY GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND READINGS SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP AND IT
SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD ENJOY LOT`S OF
SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. READINGS COULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK EVERY PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT TIMING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NW OH BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE EAST. WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED TO GO WITH
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS FOR TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AROUND A 50
POP MOST AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
ALL AREAS. TEMPS MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH SEASONABLE
READINGS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODELS THEN SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS BRINGS FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT
WHILE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WOULD KEEP
FRIDAY DRY. THIS RUN OF THE GFS IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY`S
12Z RUN AND THE 00Z GFSENS KEEPS THE FRONT BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. IT SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 06Z SUNDAY...THEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL LIKELY FORM. FOR NOW JUST CARRIED MVFR VSBYS IN THE FOG
AFTER 06Z MOST AREAS...THOUGH SREF AND SOME OF THE MAV/MET MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING NW OHIO GOING IFR IN BOTH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE 12KT TO
18KT WITH GUSTS OF 25KT TO 30KT. DIDN`T INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ENOUGH
AND EXPECTING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE RATHER THAN LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

OUTLOOK... MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS /VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. WITH THIS FLOW WAVES CLOSE
TO SHORE SHOULDN`T  BE TOO HIGH BUT RISING TO 3 TO 5 FEET FURTHER
OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK IN. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE  TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
PROVIDING FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TO
SEE THE WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...RANDEL
MARINE...RANDEL

000
FXUS61 KILN 071133
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
633 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WESTERLIES SUPPRESS NRN PORTION OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST
WITH SFC GRADIENT INCREASING ACRS OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH WIND GUST UP TO 30 MPH.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT PARALLEL
TO THE UPR LEVEL FLOW...TO OUR NORTH ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WL SHIFT EAST AND THIN TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
RESULTS IN SOME INCREASE IN RH AROUND 8H BUT PDEFS STAY HIGH.
THEREFORE..A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. IN GOOD WAA PATTERN
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A LTL ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS ARE SIMILAR WITH FLOW AMPLIFYING AND RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EAST. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ACRS
THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. GIVEN SRLY
FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME SCTD CLDS HAVE TRENDED TONIGHTS LOWS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WITH THE HIGH REESTABLISHING ITSELF ON SUNDAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA EXPECT 8H TEMPS TO WARM UP TO
BETWEEN 13C AND 14.5 C ACRS ILN/S FA. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS ABOVE GUID
TEMPS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

FLOW BEGINS TO BACK ON MONDAY WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. DURING THE DAY ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLDS.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND SREF MEAN HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE FAR NW TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL WILL PASS THRU ON TUESDAY. RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
AND WITH THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IT IS RUNNING THROUGH...THIS
TREND/SOLUTION APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AIRMASS WITH
SEASONAL HIGHS AND COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS.

TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IN THE PLAINS FOR MID
WEEK...MINIMUM TEMPS WED AND THURS MORNINGS COULD BE A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT LUK AFTER
06Z. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND NEW
GUIDANCE INDICATES GUSTS WELL OVER 20 KNOTS. SKY COVER WILL BE
SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KRLX 071050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK VORT OVER IL/IN ATTM GENERATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME. UPDATED
DEWPOINTS...WIND..RH AND SKY TO KEEP IN LINE WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTED AND TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY GOOD. MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
TOO HIGH AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN LOWER SO HAVE MIN TEMPS BELOW
MAV. CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO DRY WITH DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOME WIND CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RAISE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARING ON ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP
MOISTURE STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY WITH SOUTHERN MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STILL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF US SUNDAY...HERALDING THE
WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE IS SO MARGINAL WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY. BIG
QUESTION IS HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS WITH THIS FRONT.  GFS SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.

HARD TO BELIEVE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS FAST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS.
INCREASED POPS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN KEPT CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LOWERED POPS FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END ACROSS THAT AREA BY NOON ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIRRUS OVERHEAD AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES BY.  ANOTHER
RIPPLE CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY.  THIS ONE WILL SERVE TO
BUMP UP WIND GUSTS...UP TO 20 KNOTS IN SOME LOCATIONS LATER TODAY.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PROVIDED FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS TONIGHT...POSSIBLY FORMING A BORDERLINE MVFR CEILING
ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...CL

000
FXUS61 KILN 070920
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES EAST TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WESTERLIES SUPPRESS NRN PORTION OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST
WITH SFC GRADIENT INCREASING ACRS OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS
WITH WIND GUST UP TO 30 MPH.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT PARALLEL
TO THE UPR LEVEL FLOW...TO OUR NORTH ACRS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WL SHIFT EAST AND THIN TODAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
RESULTS IN SOME INCREASE IN RH AROUND 8H BUT PDEFS STAY HIGH.
THEREFORE..A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED. IN GOOD WAA PATTERN
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS A LTL ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS ARE SIMILAR WITH FLOW AMPLIFYING AND RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EAST. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ACRS
THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. GIVEN SRLY
FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME SCTD CLDS HAVE TRENDED TONIGHTS LOWS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WITH THE HIGH REESTABLISHING ITSELF ON SUNDAY EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA EXPECT 8H TEMPS TO WARM UP TO
BETWEEN 13C AND 14.5 C ACRS ILN/S FA. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS ABOVE GUID
TEMPS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY.

FLOW BEGINS TO BACK ON MONDAY WITH THE MID/UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING
EAST. DURING THE DAY ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLDS.

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND SREF MEAN HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF
PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE FAR NW TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL WILL PASS THRU ON TUESDAY. RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
AND WITH THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IT IS RUNNING THROUGH...THIS
TREND/SOLUTION APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AIRMASS WITH
SEASONAL HIGHS AND COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS.

TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IN THE PLAINS FOR MID
WEEK...MINIMUM TEMPS WED AND THURS MORNINGS COULD BE A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT LUK.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF OVERCAST CIRRUS EARLY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS OCCURRING AFTER 13Z.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KCLE 070802
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
302 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TODAY.
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. CURRENTLY QUITE A BIT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A BACK EDGE TO THIS CLOUDINESS AND EXPECT THE ENTIRE AREA TO
ENJOY A LOT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE COULD BE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. BEST CHANCES
FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NE OH AND NW PA.  THIS SHOULD NOT BE A
BIG DEAL AND CAN PROBABLY GET AWAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS TODAY.
PRETTY GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TODAY AND READINGS SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP AND IT
SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY AS WELL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD ENJOY LOT`S OF
SUNSHINE AND MILD WEATHER. READINGS COULD PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S
ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
BUT PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK EVERY PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS
NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT TIMING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NW OH BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP MENTION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE EAST. WILL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED TO GO WITH
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS FOR TUESDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AROUND A 50
POP MOST AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD END BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
ALL AREAS. TEMPS MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH SEASONABLE
READINGS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS SHOWING A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVING IT OFF TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. MODELS THEN SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH AT THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS BRINGS FRONT
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT
WHILE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WOULD KEEP
FRIDAY DRY. THIS RUN OF THE GFS IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY`S
12Z RUN AND THE 00Z GFSENS KEEPS THE FRONT BACK FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. IT SHOULD BE
SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THE NEXT 18 HOURS IS LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THE WINDS HAD DECOUPLED AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AFTER 05Z 45 KNOTS AT ABOUT 1800 FEET WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT START TO GET
GUSTY AND THE LLWS WILL TURN INTO MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. OVER NORTHWEST
OHIO IT WILL BE AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR CLE INCLUDED LLWS LATER AS THE
STRONGEST WINDS WONT BE IN THE CLE AREA AFTER 08Z AND ON THE EDGE
HOW QUICKLY CLE WILL START MIXING. NOT REAL CONFIDENCE IN LLWS AT
CLE. LEFT LLWS OUT OF CAK AND YNG AS THE WINDS WONT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO MEET THE NWS LLWS CRITERIA. ALSO LEFT LLWS OUT OF ERI AS
THEY WILL MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

VFR FOR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES FOR THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF MID
CLOUDS WAS DECREASING AS IT WAS MOVING THROUGH AND SOME CIRRUS IS
MOVING IN QUICKLY. THE MODELS ARE MIXED ABOUT A DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET. THE GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
ABOUT THIS...WENT WITH THAT TREND BASED ON A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...MVFR
CEILINGS /VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. WITH THIS FLOW WAVES CLOSE
TO SHORE SHOULDN`T  BE TOO HIGH BUT RISING TO 3 TO 5 FEET FURTHER
OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK IN. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE  TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
PROVIDING FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TO
SEE THE WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...RANDEL

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070701
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK WAVES
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PIT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...RESULTING IN A NICE
WARMUP FROM THIS MORNINGS COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. FOR TNGT...A FEW CLOUDS AND A MILDER AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-70 REACHING THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MID
CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED
TO CLIP THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...DURING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KRLX 070547
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1247 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WEAK VORT OVER IL/IN ATTM GENERATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME. UPDATED
DEWPOINTS...WIND..RH AND SKY TO KEEP IN LINE WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTED AND TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY GOOD. MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
TOO HIGH AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN LOWER SO HAVE MIN TEMPS BELOW
MAV. CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO DRY WITH DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOME WIND CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RAISE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARING ON ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP
MOISTURE STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY WITH SOUTHERN MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STILL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF US SUNDAY...HERALDING THE
WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE IS SO MARGINAL WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY. BIG
QUESTION IS HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS WITH THIS FRONT.  GFS SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.

HARD TO BELIEVE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS FAST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS.
INCREASED POPS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN KEPT CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LOWERED POPS FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END ACROSS THAT AREA BY NOON ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY.  NOT CALLING FOR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THIS POINT AS EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TO MIX AS
CLOUDS PASS...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.  LIGHT FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE
IN A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR SUNRISE.  FEW CU POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
THIS AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT...POCKET OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU AFTER 03Z
OR SO.

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/AAR/JMV
NEAR TERM...AAR/JS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...CL

000
FXUS61 KILN 070537
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1237 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST...DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE FA WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION.  ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WIND AND TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
WAA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR FOR SATURDAY AS THEY DRAG A CDFNT FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRINGS AN AREA OF H8 MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FNT. THREW IN WINDS GUSTS NR 30 KTS DURING SAT AFTN.

HIGH REINSTATES ITSELF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPS. EXPECT SOME GUSTS
ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAYS.

GFS AND NAM MOS HIGHS LOOKED REASONABLE...SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR.
FOR LOWS LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. SINCE THIS HIGH WILL HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WILL LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN AND WITH
THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IT IS RUNNING THROUGH...THIS
TREND/SOLUTION APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AIRMASS WITH
SEASONAL HIGHS AND COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS.

TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IN THE PLAINS FOR MID
WEEK...MINIMUM TEMPS WED AND THURS MORNINGS COULD BE A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE FOG AT LUK.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF OVERCAST CIRRUS EARLY WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS OCCURRING AFTER 13Z.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

000
FXUS61 KCLE 070448
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1148 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE
GULF COAST STATES. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND A WARMER SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SOME CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
PATCH OF DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION ALTOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
OUT BUT DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MORE ALTOCUMULUS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. DEWPOINTS ARE LOW. WIND WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW OHIO...ALONG THE
LAKESHORE...AND IN THE PREFERRED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS MUCH DESPITE THE LOW DEWPOINTS. INLAND
LOCATIONS SOUTH TOWARD CANTON AND MILLERSBURG WHERE THE WIND IS
LIGHTER WILL GET COLDER. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY ACROSS NW PA EARLY
TONIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RISE LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
NICE LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH WARM
ADVECTION SO WE SHOULD SEE AN EXPANSION OF THE ALTOCUMULUS AND
CIRRUS. CAN NOT RULE OUT VIRGA OR A SPRINKLE BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE
BREAKS AND THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS. CLOUD COVER WILL CAP THE
TEMPERATURE RISE BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE TEMPS RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...TO AROUND 60. IF WE WERE TO GET MORE SUNSHINE WE WOULD BE
IN THE LOWER OR MID 60S. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL
ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD
COVER ON SUNDAY. THEN NAM/WRF IS MOSTLY CLEAR WHEREAS THE GFS IS
MOSTLY CLOUDY. DO NOT THINK THERE WOULD BE A LOT OF LEFTOVER CLOUDS
BUT "PARTLY CLOUDY" IS PROBABLY A REASONABLE FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN
THE MORE SUNSHINE THE WARMER THE TEMPERATURES. BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE
A BIT LIGHTER ON SUNDAY AND LIKE TO SEE A GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW FOR A REALLY WARM DAY BUT IT WILL STILL TAKE A RUN...ESPECIALLY
BY MONDAY. MY FIRST IMPRESSION WAS THAT WE WILL SEE 70F IN MANY
PLACES BEFORE ALL WAS SAID AND DONE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF
AND WILL KEEP IT SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME AND FORECAST
UPPER 60S...NOT BAD FOR NOVEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STARTING OFF A BIT INCONSISTENT TOWARDS MIDWEEK WITH
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF A BIT SLOWER IN DEPARTING FEATURE
WHILE GFS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE SHOWING CHANCE POPS SO ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS BY LOWER POPS OUT WEST A BIT WHILE KEEPING THE CHANCE
POPS FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS IN ERN OH AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH DRY CONDITIONS WED AND THU. BOTH MODELS AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR FRI/SAT PERIOD.
FOR NOW DON/T HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT POPS IN FORECAST GIVEN TIMING
ISSUES SO FAR OUT IN PERIOD. DID MENTION BUILDING CLOUDS HOWEVER
WITH THIS FEATURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. LEANED TOWARDS
COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS WITH POSSIBILITY OF GOOD RADIATING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THE NEXT 18 HOURS IS LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) AND GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND THE WINDS HAD DECOUPLED AT MOST
LOCATIONS. AFTER 05Z 45 KNOTS AT ABOUT 1800 FEET WILL BE OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL IT START TO GET
GUSTY AND THE LLWS WILL TURN INTO MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. OVER NORTHWEST
OHIO IT WILL BE AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR CLE INCLUDED LLWS LATER AS THE
STRONGEST WINDS WONT BE IN THE CLE AREA AFTER 08Z AND ON THE EDGE
HOW QUICKLY CLE WILL START MIXING. NOT REAL CONFIDENCE IN LLWS AT
CLE. LEFT LLWS OUT OF CAK AND YNG AS THE WINDS WONT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO MEET THE NWS LLWS CRITERIA. ALSO LEFT LLWS OUT OF ERI AS
THEY WILL MIX DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

VFR FOR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES FOR THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF MID
CLOUDS WAS DECREASING AS IT WAS MOVING THROUGH AND SOME CIRRUS IS
MOVING IN QUICKLY. THE MODELS ARE MIXED ABOUT A DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET. THE GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
ABOUT THIS...WENT WITH THAT TREND BASED ON A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...MVFR
CEILINGS /VISIBILITIES WITH SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP JUST ABOVE THE LAKE
LATE TONIGHT WITH 40 KNOTS INDICATED AT ABOUT 1000 FEET ABOVE THE
LAKE SURFACE FROM THE NAM AND GFS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BASIN. EXPECT SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO MIX TO THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY
FROM 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z WITH WINDS OF 18 TO 23 KNOTS EXPECTED
IN THE NEARSHORE. CONSEQUENTLY WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FROM 09Z SATURDAY UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY WHICH BY THEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HAVE RELAXED ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE WINDS BELOW
CRITERIA. WITH THE SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING SATURDAY THE LARGEST WAVES
WILL BE OFFSHORE. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WEAK SURFACE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...REL

000
FXUS61 KRLX 070217
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
917 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO MONDAY.  FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK VORT OVER IL/IN ATTM GENERATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. THIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME. UPDATED
DEWPOINTS...WIND..RH AND SKY TO KEEP IN LINE WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REPORTED AND TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY GOOD. MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK
TOO HIGH AS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN LOWER SO HAVE MIN TEMPS BELOW
MAV. CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO DRY WITH DEW POINTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOME WIND CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RAISE THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTHWARD...AND THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES BY END OF THIS
PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO APPEARING ON ALL BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT NOT ONLY WILL THE GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AND ITS DEEP
MOISTURE STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION...BUT MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY AND ITS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AT THE
END OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THUS...MAJORITY OF MODELS STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY WITH SOUTHERN MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT STILL TO THE WEST
AND NORTH.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND...LOOK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 70S IN SOME SPOTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST OF US SUNDAY...HERALDING THE
WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE IS SO MARGINAL WILL MINIMIZE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS REGION ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY. BIG
QUESTION IS HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS WITH THIS FRONT.  GFS SUGGESTS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...WHILE ECMWF BRINGS MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD.

HARD TO BELIEVE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS FAST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS.
INCREASED POPS EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN KEPT CHC POPS INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LOWERED POPS FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END ACROSS THAT AREA BY NOON ON
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND FEW CLOUDS.  FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS TO THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FEEL MEX NUMBERS ARE GENERALLY TOO WARM...SO HAVE GONE WITH HPC
NUMBERS WITH SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDTIONS THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. SOME LLWS BTW 09Z-15Z AS AIR MASS DECOUPLES.

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/AAR/JMV
NEAR TERM...AAR/JS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JS

000
FXUS61 KILN 070205
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
905 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST...DOMINATING THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE FA WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION.  ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WIND AND TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
WAA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL STAY UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR FOR SATURDAY AS THEY DRAG A CDFNT FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRINGS AN AREA OF H8 MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA.
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES DURING THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FNT. THREW IN WINDS GUSTS NR 30 KTS DURING SAT AFTN.

HIGH REINSTATES ITSELF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPS. EXPECT SOME GUSTS
ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAYS.

GFS AND NAM MOS HIGHS LOOKED REASONABLE...SO DIDNT STRAY TOO FAR.
FOR LOWS LEANED TOWARDS THE COOLER GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
MONDAY. SINCE THIS HIGH WILL HAVE BEEN ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THIS WILL LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN AND WITH
THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS IT IS RUNNING THROUGH...THIS
TREND/SOLUTION APPEARS TO MAKE SENSE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER IN THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY AIRMASS WITH
SEASONAL HIGHS AND COOL NIGHTTIME LOWS.

TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE REGION
OF THE AIRMASS WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH IN THE PLAINS FOR MID
WEEK...MINIMUM TEMPS WED AND THURS MORNINGS COULD BE A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE TAF SITES WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLUK. EXPECT VISBYS AT KLUK
TO BE BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE DUE TO
SOME CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME CU WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY WITH THIS BEING MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF BY SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070123
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
823 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTBOUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM
NORTH DAKOTA WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
COLDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY WITH
SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES
UNDERCUT MOS. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY BRING A FEW MID CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT STILL MOSTLY SUNNY.
MILDER AS FLOW TURNS SOUTH ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH.

UPDATED OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TO TIME THE
WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE SURFACE
AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF
RIDGE AT TIMES WILL BRING SCATTERED MID CLOUDS THROUGH PERIOD BUT
SKIES OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
IDA. FOR NOW WILL ASSUME THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY
SOUTH AND WILL KEEP ONLY SCATTERED POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY FRIDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS PERIOD AS NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW TH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
EAST TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PROVIDING A DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
LAYER INTO MONDAY.

DESPITE A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION SATURDAY MORNING...FOG WILL
ONLY BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF WATER BODIES...WHICH SHOULD NOT
AFFECT TAF SITES.

SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH NEAR 3 KTS...THEN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST 10-15 KTS DAYTIME SATURDAY...6-10 KTS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST A WARM
FRONT CAN PRODUCE VFR STRATOCUMULUS/CEILINGS 050-070 HFT/ SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO GO SCATTERED DAYTIME SUNDAY AND REMAIN SO
INTO MONDAY.

RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM THE DAKOTAS
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY DAYTIME TUESDAY WHICH COULD
SPAWN A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCUMULUS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
HOWEVER VFR SHOULD BE PREVALENT AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070047 AAA
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
747 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY WITH
SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND CLEAR SKIES
UNDERCUT MOS. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY BRING A FEW MID CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT STILL MOSTLY SUNNY.
MILDER AS FLOW TURNS SOUTH ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH.

UPDATED OVERNIGHT SKY GRIDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TO TIME THE
WAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE TO SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AS RIDGE SURFACE
AND ALOFT REMAINS IN CONTROL. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER TOP OF
RIDGE AT TIMES WILL BRING SCATTERED MID CLOUDS THROUGH PERIOD BUT
SKIES OVERALL MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
IDA. FOR NOW WILL ASSUME THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY
SOUTH AND WILL KEEP ONLY SCATTERED POPS FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY FRIDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$