000
FXUS64 KOUN 090427
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1027 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009


.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
MONDAY AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UP SLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTH. COINCIDENTALLY MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOG TO
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  52  66 /  10  30  20  10
HOBART OK         56  72  49  68 /  10  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  77  51  71 /  10  20  20  10
GAGE OK           50  62  43  65 /  30  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  67  47  67 /  20  40  30  10
DURANT OK         57  75  52  74 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09

000
FXUS64 KTSA 090305
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COMPACT BUNDLE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER MID TEXAS
HEADED ENE. JUST ENOUGH LIFT OVERNIGHT FOR CHANCE
LIGHT SHOWERS..OR SPRINKLES NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TSA FORECAST AREA. CURRENTLY
CLOUDS ABOVE ASOS LEVEL..BUT SHOWING ON SATELLITE
AND IN RWR PRODUCTS.  INCREASED SKY GRID COVERAGE.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IMPACTS OF EARLIER LOWER CEILINGS HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH MID CLOUD BLANKET OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
POINTS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LOWER CEILINGS TO REFORM LATER
TONIGHT IS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN REGION OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN.
SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ANY
PERSISTENT LOWER CEILINGS GRAVITATING NEARER THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU DECK HAS FILLED IN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES UNDER THE
DEEP SWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE NOTED A FEW MID-LEVEL ECHOES ON AREA
RADARS...BUT NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SERN NE INTO SWRN KS WILL SLOWLY DIP
INTO OK...EVENTUALLY STALLING AS AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS PARTS OF
NCNTRL/NERN OK. QPF FROM VARIOUS MODELS CONSISTENT THAT BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND TO THE
NW/N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE OK FOR
OUR AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OR GET ABSORBED IN THE
GENERAL FLOW AROUND THE REMAINS OF IDA ON TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING NLY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT A COOL MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY...AND MORE SEASONABLY AFTERNOON TEMPS...AS SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF UPPER TROF OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
SURFACE FRONT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF...SO HAVE LEFT POPS ON THE LOW END THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  73  50  67 /  10  20  20  20
FSM   54  73  53  73 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   57  74  51  72 /  20  20  10  20
BVO   55  74  48  66 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   52  72  47  67 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   51  70  48  66 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   54  74  51  70 /  10  20  20  20
MIO   55  72  49  65 /  10  20  20  20
F10   56  73  50  70 /  10  20  20  20
HHW   56  76  54  74 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21

000
FXUS64 KOUN 090302
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
902 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.UPDATE...
HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE FA THIS EVENING.  EXPECT THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS
LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM/MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH LOW EAST OF SAN ANGELO HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. NAM TRACKS
LOW/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OK TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS. WILL MENTION
SLIGHT CHANCE RW ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK BUT BULK OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH.

EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL LIMIT EVEN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS INTO FA TONIGHT. HOWEVER SLIGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS MAY ADVECT INTO WESTERN PARTS OF AREA WHICH MAY RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT. WILL MENTION FOG ALL AREAS BUT BETTER CHANCE
APPEARS ACROSS WESTERN 1/2 OR 1/3 OF FA. OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR OK
AS WELL AS POPS.


&&

SIX


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH STILL MILD...MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS
HELPED HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD FROM MEX INTO SOUTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF IDA AND SUBSEQUENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GULF WILL LIMIT RETURN OF GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE W THEN SWLY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT WEST. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  52  66 /  10  30  20  10
HOBART OK         56  72  49  68 /  10  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  77  51  71 /  10  20  20  10
GAGE OK           50  62  43  65 /  30  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  67  47  67 /  20  40  30  10
DURANT OK         57  75  52  74 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KTSA 082325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
IMPACTS OF EARLIER LOWER CEILINGS HAVE DIMINISHED WITHIN THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH MID CLOUD BLANKET OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST
POINTS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LOWER CEILINGS TO REFORM LATER
TONIGHT IS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN REGION OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN.
SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ANY
PERSISTENT LOWER CEILINGS GRAVITATING NEARER THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU DECK HAS FILLED IN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES UNDER THE
DEEP SWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE NOTED A FEW MID-LEVEL ECHOES ON AREA
RADARS...BUT NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SERN NE INTO SWRN KS WILL SLOWLY DIP
INTO OK...EVENTUALLY STALLING AS AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS PARTS OF
NCNTRL/NERN OK. QPF FROM VARIOUS MODELS CONSISTENT THAT BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND TO THE
NW/N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE OK FOR
OUR AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OR GET ABSORBED IN THE
GENERAL FLOW AROUND THE REMAINS OF IDA ON TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING NLY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT A COOL MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY...AND MORE SEASONABLY AFTERNOON TEMPS...AS SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF UPPER TROF OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
SURFACE FRONT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF...SO HAVE LEFT POPS ON THE LOW END THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  73  50  67 /  10  20  20  20
FSM   53  73  53  73 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   56  74  51  72 /  10  20  10  20
BVO   54  74  48  66 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   51  72  47  67 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   50  70  48  66 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   53  74  51  70 /  10  20  20  20
MIO   54  72  49  65 /  10  20  20  20
F10   55  73  50  70 /  10  20  20  20
HHW   55  76  54  74 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KTSA 082040
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU DECK HAS FILLED IN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES UNDER THE
DEEP SWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE NOTED A FEW MID-LEVEL ECHOES ON AREA
RADARS...BUT NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SERN NE INTO SWRN KS WILL SLOWLY DIP
INTO OK...EVENTUALLY STALLING AS AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS PARTS OF
NCNTRL/NERN OK. QPF FROM VARIOUS MODELS CONSISTENT THAT BEST CHANCES
OF PRECIP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND TO THE
NW/N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS NE OK FOR
OUR AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SURFACE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OR GET ABSORBED IN THE
GENERAL FLOW AROUND THE REMAINS OF IDA ON TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING NLY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT A COOL MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY...AND MORE SEASONABLY AFTERNOON TEMPS...AS SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS.

EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF UPPER TROF OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
SURFACE FRONT POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF...SO HAVE LEFT POPS ON THE LOW END THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  73  50  67 /  10  20  20  20
FSM   53  73  53  73 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   56  74  51  72 /  10  20  10  20
BVO   54  74  48  66 /  10  30  20  20
FYV   51  72  47  67 /  10  10  20  20
BYV   50  70  48  66 /  10  10  20  20
MKO   53  74  51  70 /  10  20  20  20
MIO   54  72  49  65 /  10  20  20  20
F10   55  73  50  70 /  10  20  20  20
HHW   55  76  54  74 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....18

000
FXUS64 KOUN 082039
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
239 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH STILL MILD...MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS
HELPED HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE PRECIP
WITH SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD FROM MEX INTO SOUTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF IDA AND SUBSEQUENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GULF WILL LIMIT RETURN OF GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE W THEN SWLY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OUT WEST. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  72  52  66 /  20  30  20  10
HOBART OK         56  72  49  68 /  10  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  77  51  71 /  10  20  20  10
GAGE OK           50  62  43  65 /  20  30  20  10
PONCA CITY OK     56  67  47  67 /  30  40  30  10
DURANT OK         57  75  52  74 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02

000
FXUS64 KOUN 081734 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO AFTERNOON AS MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES. EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT MOST SITES BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. EXPECT LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT APPROACHING
NW OK. WILL TAKE CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR LATE TONIGHT IN MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT LIFR CONDITIONS SHOWN ON THE MAV
GUIDANCE WILL DEVELOP. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER IN ADVANCE OF APCHG
FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

.UPDATE...
UPDATED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. FOG HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... 500-M WINDS AGAIN AROUND 50 KT THIS MORNING OVER N OK
RESULTING IN LLWS FOR A FEW MORE HRS WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN
BACKED/LIGHT. OTHERWISE TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE VARIABILITY IN CIG/VSBY LIKELY. PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING BRINGING A FEW AREAS DOWN TO LIFR BUT INCREASING
WINDS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP PREVAILING VSBYS UP IN MVFR
RANGE. LOWER CIGS HARD TO COME BY SO FAR BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE
COMMON TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS INCREASING MOISTURE SPREADS
N FROM TX. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN
MANY AREAS LATE TONIGHT. WHILE POSSIBLE... THIS GUIDANCE DID NOT
CATCH THE EXISTING FOG AND GENERALLY HAS NOT DONE WELL IN SEVERAL
OTHER RECENT EVENTS. WE WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN BOTH CIG AND VSBY
AT MOST SITES TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD PREVAILING CONDITIONS
AT MVFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FOR OK AND N TX... PRIMARY ROLE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW
APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA IS LIKELY TO BE TO DEPRIVE US OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR A HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE ALSO WILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG
AND PERHAPS SOME STRATUS/STRATOCU... BUT A LOT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AT MID LEVELS. IN ANY CASE
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT TODAY
RELATIVE TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD GAGE
BELOW 90 TODAY. TURNING COOLER MONDAY IN THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT REST OF THE AREA SHOULD GET ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY.
TEMPS DROP BACK CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY... BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. DRY/WARMER WED WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT... THEN BECOMING WINDY THU AS SFC HIGH MOVES E AND S WINDS
PICK UP.

GENERAL TREND TOWARD END OF THE WEEK IS FOR LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OUT W WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MUCH STRONGER WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
SAT/SUN... AND WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEKEND FOR THE
PLAINS. BUT ECMWF IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER AT PRESENT AND SO IT IS
MUCH TOO SOON TO BUY INTO ITS SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  57  69  49 /   0  20  20  20
HOBART OK         76  54  69  48 /   0  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  56  75  50 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           77  49  60  39 /   0  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     74  55  69  46 /  10  30  40  30
DURANT OK         74  57  74  53 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02

000
FXUS64 KTSA 081701
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

PATCHY MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY ACRS ERN OK/NWRN AR AND COULD AFFECT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS PERIODICALLY. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY
WHEN...BUT WILL CARRY SCT AT MVFR HEIGHTS THRU TMRW MRNG AT ALL
SITES BEFORE GOING WITH A PREVAILING MVFR CIG AT ALL SITES BY 15Z
TMRW AS FNT APPROACHES. MVFR VSBYS COULD AGAIN BE PSBL AT ALL
SITES...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAPPENED IN WRN/CNTRL OK THIS MRNG. LOWER
VSBYS COULD OCCUR AT FYV/XNA...BUT WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING...AND WITH IT COMES THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...SO BIG CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS
TO INCREASE SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LEAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW SINCE TRENDS HAVE INDICATED STEADY
WARMING SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT IF CLOUD COVER INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

LATEST MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME MOISTURE STARVATION IN ADVANCE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME...SO
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK UNLIKELY. 88D MOSAIC HAS
SHOWN SOME MID LEVEL ECHOES THIS MORNING...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS
WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...22

000
FXUS64 KOUN 081623 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. FOG HAS
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY
GRIDS TO CURRENT TRENDS. WILL SEND UPDATES SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... 500-M WINDS AGAIN AROUND 50 KT THIS MORNING OVER N OK
RESULTING IN LLWS FOR A FEW MORE HRS WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN
BACKED/LIGHT. OTHERWISE TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE VARIABILITY IN CIG/VSBY LIKELY. PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING BRINGING A FEW AREAS DOWN TO LIFR BUT INCREASING
WINDS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP PREVAILING VSBYS UP IN MVFR
RANGE. LOWER CIGS HARD TO COME BY SO FAR BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE
COMMON TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS INCREASING MOISTURE SPREADS
N FROM TX. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN
MANY AREAS LATE TONIGHT. WHILE POSSIBLE... THIS GUIDANCE DID NOT
CATCH THE EXISTING FOG AND GENERALLY HAS NOT DONE WELL IN SEVERAL
OTHER RECENT EVENTS. WE WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN BOTH CIG AND VSBY
AT MOST SITES TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD PREVAILING CONDITIONS
AT MVFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FOR OK AND N TX... PRIMARY ROLE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW
APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA IS LIKELY TO BE TO DEPRIVE US OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR A HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE ALSO WILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG
AND PERHAPS SOME STRATUS/STRATOCU... BUT A LOT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AT MID LEVELS. IN ANY CASE
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT TODAY
RELATIVE TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD GAGE
BELOW 90 TODAY. TURNING COOLER MONDAY IN THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT REST OF THE AREA SHOULD GET ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY.
TEMPS DROP BACK CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY... BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. DRY/WARMER WED WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT... THEN BECOMING WINDY THU AS SFC HIGH MOVES E AND S WINDS
PICK UP.

GENERAL TREND TOWARD END OF THE WEEK IS FOR LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OUT W WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MUCH STRONGER WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
SAT/SUN... AND WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEKEND FOR THE
PLAINS. BUT ECMWF IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER AT PRESENT AND SO IT IS
MUCH TOO SOON TO BUY INTO ITS SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  57  69  49 /   0  20  20  20
HOBART OK         76  54  69  48 /   0  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  56  75  50 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           77  49  60  39 /   0  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     74  55  69  46 /  10  30  40  30
DURANT OK         74  57  74  53 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/02

000
FXUS64 KTSA 081601
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1001 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING...AND WITH IT COMES THE LOWER CLOUDS. EXPECT THAT
CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...SO BIG CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS
TO INCREASE SKY COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LEAVE MAX
TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW SINCE TRENDS HAVE INDICATED STEADY
WARMING SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT IF CLOUD COVER INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.

LATEST MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME MOISTURE STARVATION IN ADVANCE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME...SO
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK UNLIKELY. 88D MOSAIC HAS
SHOWN SOME MID LEVEL ECHOES THIS MORNING...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS
WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18

000
FXUS64 KTSA 081134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL 15Z THEN
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL AFTER 09Z TONIGHT WHEN ONCE
AGAIN PATCHY MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS IN LIGHT
FOG/STRATUS WILL FORM.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FINE DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA TODAY. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
SEVERAL DAYS THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND... SLIGHTLY COOLER
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES... AND A LITTLE LESS WIND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

AN AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS... KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MINIMAL ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES AND THE TROPICAL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION VERY LOW.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK DRAGGING A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY...
MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN PATTERN
SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WOULD PROVIDE FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...15

000
FXUS64 KOUN 081115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... 500-M WINDS AGAIN AROUND 50 KT THIS MORNING OVER N OK
RESULTING IN LLWS FOR A FEW MORE HRS WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN
BACKED/LIGHT. OTHERWISE TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE VARIABILITY IN CIG/VSBY LIKELY. PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING BRINGING A FEW AREAS DOWN TO LIFR BUT INCREASING
WINDS AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP PREVAILING VSBYS UP IN MVFR
RANGE. LOWER CIGS HARD TO COME BY SO FAR BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE
COMMON TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS INCREASING MOISTURE SPREADS
N FROM TX. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING IN
MANY AREAS LATE TONIGHT. WHILE POSSIBLE... THIS GUIDANCE DID NOT
CATCH THE EXISTING FOG AND GENERALLY HAS NOT DONE WELL IN SEVERAL
OTHER RECENT EVENTS. WE WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN BOTH CIG AND VSBY
AT MOST SITES TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD PREVAILING CONDITIONS
AT MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FOR OK AND N TX... PRIMARY ROLE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW
APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA IS LIKELY TO BE TO DEPRIVE US OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR A HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE ALSO WILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG
AND PERHAPS SOME STRATUS/STRATOCU... BUT A LOT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AT MID LEVELS. IN ANY CASE
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT TODAY
RELATIVE TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD GAGE
BELOW 90 TODAY. TURNING COOLER MONDAY IN THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT REST OF THE AREA SHOULD GET ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY.
TEMPS DROP BACK CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY... BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. DRY/WARMER WED WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT... THEN BECOMING WINDY THU AS SFC HIGH MOVES E AND S WINDS
PICK UP.

GENERAL TREND TOWARD END OF THE WEEK IS FOR LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OUT W WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MUCH STRONGER WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
SAT/SUN... AND WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEKEND FOR THE
PLAINS. BUT ECMWF IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER AT PRESENT AND SO IT IS
MUCH TOO SOON TO BUY INTO ITS SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  57  69  49 /   0  20  20  20
HOBART OK         76  54  69  48 /   0  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  56  75  50 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           77  49  60  39 /   0  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     74  55  69  46 /  10  30  40  30
DURANT OK         74  57  74  53 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/24/24

000
FXUS64 KTSA 080907
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FINE DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA TODAY. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
SEVERAL DAYS THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND... SLIGHTLY COOLER
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES... AND A LITTLE LESS WIND.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

AN AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER MOISTURE RETURN TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS... KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MINIMAL ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES AND THE TROPICAL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND KEEP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION VERY LOW.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE
NEXT WEEK DRAGGING A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY...
MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN PATTERN
SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WOULD PROVIDE FOR A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  58  73  50 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   77  55  75  53 /   0  10  10  20
MLC   76  56  74  54 /   0  10  10  20
BVO   77  55  72  46 /   0  10  20  30
FYV   74  51  73  47 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   74  53  73  50 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   77  57  73  50 /   0  10  10  20
MIO   76  58  72  50 /   0  10  20  30
F10   77  57  73  52 /   0  10  20  20
HHW   77  58  75  55 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....06

000
FXUS64 KOUN 080907
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
307 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FOR OK AND N TX... PRIMARY ROLE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM NOW
APPROACHING THE BIG BEND AREA IS LIKELY TO BE TO DEPRIVE US OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED FOR A HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW- AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE ALSO WILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG
AND PERHAPS SOME STRATUS/STRATOCU... BUT A LOT OF THE CLOUD COVER
LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AT MID LEVELS. IN ANY CASE
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT TODAY
RELATIVE TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD GAGE
BELOW 90 TODAY. TURNING COOLER MONDAY IN THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT REST OF THE AREA SHOULD GET ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY.
TEMPS DROP BACK CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY... BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. DRY/WARMER WED WITH RIDGING SFC AND
ALOFT... THEN BECOMING WINDY THU AS SFC HIGH MOVES E AND S WINDS
PICK UP.

GENERAL TREND TOWARD END OF THE WEEK IS FOR LONGWAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OUT W WITH PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES TOWARD THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MUCH STRONGER WITH A SYSTEM MOVING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
SAT/SUN... AND WOULD INDICATE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEKEND FOR THE
PLAINS. BUT ECMWF IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER AT PRESENT AND SO IT IS
MUCH TOO SOON TO BUY INTO ITS SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  73  57  69  49 /   0  20  20  20
HOBART OK         76  54  69  48 /   0  10  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  56  75  50 /   0  10  10  20
GAGE OK           77  49  60  39 /   0  20  30  20
PONCA CITY OK     74  55  69  46 /  10  30  40  30
DURANT OK         74  57  74  53 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/24

000
FXUS64 KTSA 080547
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD IS LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THE MORE PREVALENT CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE LOOK TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...THUS WILL CONTINUE VFR
FORECASTS ASIDE FROM THE RIVER VALLEY HAZE OVER KFSM THROUGH EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SOME MIN TEMPERATURE
DIFFICULTIES AT LOCATIONS WHERE THE WIND QUIT. LAST
MESONET AT 925 PM SHOWED ANTLERS AT 51 DEGREES WITH
NO WIND AND MOST OTHER PLACES IN THE UPPER 50S LOWER
60S. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN TEMP / WIND
TWEAKS...NO GRID CHANGES.
GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNSET...WITH AXIS
OF LOW CLOUD POSSIBLY APPROACHING KMLC TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA WIDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM NOVEMBER DAY UNDERWAY...WITH CURRENT
TEMPS RANGING FROM 75-80 DEGREES. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK THAT SPREAD
ACROSS SE OK EARLIER HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND WON`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT...PER 12Z LOW-LEVEL RH FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY MIXING OUT LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED NE TO SW ACROSS KS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND SLIDE GRADUALLY SE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE MONDAY. WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED...THE PRESENCE OF IDA IN THE GULF WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE
CONFINED WELL TO OUR S AND SE. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET
CAUGHT IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND IDA...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NLY/NWLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER...BUT SEASONAL...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SURFACE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE S BY THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING
TROF ACROSS THE WRN STATES. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER BY LATE WEEK IN THE
HANDLING OF THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  74 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   48  77  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   56  76  55  74 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   51  78  55  73 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   51  75  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   51  75  52  71 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   53  78  54  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   55  77  55  72 /   0   0  10  20
F10   55  77  54  71 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   54  76  56  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KOUN 080433
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1033 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTH AND ALSO FORM
OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODERATE LLJ OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND THIS SEEM REASONABLE.
DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RUNNING
5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S. STRATUS DECK WHICH DEVELOPED AS
FAR NORTH AS NORTH TEXAS LAST NIGHT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRHTR
NORTH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAIN PRECIP THREAT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FA. NORTHERN BRANCH S/W
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. CIRCULATION AROUND IDA OR ITS REMNANTS IN THE GULF WILL
GREATLY LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE FROM GREAT LAKES INTO S TX ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MID
PART OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS RETURN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  73  55  71 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         56  76  52  69 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  75  56  73 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           50  76  48  60 /   0   0  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     57  73  55  68 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         54  75  56  75 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/09/09

000
FXUS64 KOUN 080351
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
951 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODERATE LLJ OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH FIELDS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST AND THIS SEEM REASONABLE.
DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS RUNNING
5 TO 7 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S. STRATUS DECK WHICH DEVELOPED AS
FAR NORTH AS NORTH TEXAS LAST NIGHT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRHTR
NORTH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAIN PRECIP THREAT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FA. NORTHERN BRANCH S/W
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. CIRCULATION AROUND IDA OR ITS REMNANTS IN THE GULF WILL
GREATLY LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE FROM GREAT LAKES INTO S TX ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MID
PART OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS RETURN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  73  55  71 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         56  76  52  69 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  75  56  73 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           50  76  48  60 /   0   0  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     57  73  55  68 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         54  75  56  75 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

01/01

000
FXUS64 KTSA 080337
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SOME MIN TEMPERATURE
DIFFICULTIES AT LOCATIONS WHERE THE WIND QUIT. LAST
MESONET AT 925 PM SHOWED ANTLERS AT 51 DEGREES WITH
NO WIND AND MOST OTHER PLACES IN THE UPPER 50S LOWER
60S. TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER
THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. OTHER THAN TEMP / WIND
TWEAKS...NO GRID CHANGES.
GW



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNSET...WITH AXIS
OF LOW CLOUD POSSIBLY APPROACHING KMLC TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREA WIDE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM NOVEMBER DAY UNDERWAY...WITH CURRENT
TEMPS RANGING FROM 75-80 DEGREES. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK THAT SPREAD
ACROSS SE OK EARLIER HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND WON`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT...PER 12Z LOW-LEVEL RH FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY MIXING OUT LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED NE TO SW ACROSS KS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND SLIDE GRADUALLY SE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE MONDAY. WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED...THE PRESENCE OF IDA IN THE GULF WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE
CONFINED WELL TO OUR S AND SE. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET
CAUGHT IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND IDA...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NLY/NWLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER...BUT SEASONAL...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SURFACE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE S BY THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING
TROF ACROSS THE WRN STATES. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER BY LATE WEEK IN THE
HANDLING OF THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  57  74 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   48  77  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   56  76  55  74 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   51  78  55  73 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   51  75  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   51  75  52  71 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   53  78  54  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   55  77  55  72 /   0   0  10  20
F10   55  77  54  71 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   54  76  56  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21

000
FXUS64 KTSA 072323
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
523 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER SUNSET...WITH AXIS
OF LOW CLOUD POSSIBLY APPROACHING KMLC TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREAWIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM NOVEMBER DAY UNDERWAY...WITH CURRENT
TEMPS RANGING FROM 75-80 DEGREES. SHALLOW STRATUS DECK THAT SPREAD
ACROSS SE OK EARLIER HAS SINCE DISSIPATED...AND WON`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT...PER 12Z LOW-LEVEL RH FORECAST.
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN GRIDS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY MIXING OUT LATER SUNDAY MORNING.

SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED NE TO SW ACROSS KS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND SLIDE GRADUALLY SE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE MONDAY. WHILE SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED...THE PRESENCE OF IDA IN THE GULF WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE
CONFINED WELL TO OUR S AND SE. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET
CAUGHT IN THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND IDA...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NLY/NWLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER...BUT SEASONAL...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. SURFACE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY RETURN TO THE S BY THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING
TROF ACROSS THE WRN STATES. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER BY LATE WEEK IN THE
HANDLING OF THE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...AND HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF FOR NOW...WITH LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  79  57  74 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   50  77  54  76 /   0   0  10  10
MLC   58  76  55  74 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   51  78  55  73 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   52  75  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   53  75  52  71 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   54  78  54  74 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   57  77  55  72 /   0   0  10  20
F10   56  77  54  71 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   55  76  56  73 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07

000
FXUS64 KOUN 072026
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
226 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA
WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S. STRATUS DECK WHICH DEVELOPED AS
FAR NORTH AS NORTH TEXAS LAST NIGHT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRHTR
NORTH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MAIN PRECIP THREAT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FA. NORTHERN BRANCH S/W
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. CIRCULATION AROUND IDA OR ITS REMNANTS IN THE GULF WILL
GREATLY LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THUS WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE FROM GREAT LAKES INTO S TX ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE MID
PART OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS RETURN IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  54  73  55  71 /   0  10  10  20
HOBART OK         56  76  52  69 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  75  56  73 /   0  10  10  10
GAGE OK           50  76  48  60 /   0   0  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     57  73  55  68 /   0  10  10  20
DURANT OK         54  75  56  75 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/02

000
FXUS64 KOUN 071842
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT ST DECK WHICH DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER TX TO
SPREAD NWWD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. RH PROGS WOULD IMPLY
TRAJECTORY MORE INTO WRN OK/N TX THEN SPREADING NEWD NEAR OR AFTER
SUNRISE. WILL GO WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT COULD SEE SOME
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN OK BRIEFLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

.DISCUSSION...
MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE PACKAGE THIS MORNING... MAINLY
WITH SKY COVER. THE OPAQUE CIRRUS IS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA... WHILE THE CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... 500-M WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY OVER KS BUT
PROFILERS AND 12Z OUN RAOB STILL HAVE THEM STRONG ENOUGH AND
VEERED ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN FOR A COUPLE HRS
THIS MORNING. STRATUS/FOG OVER TX IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT TO ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO DO SO LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MOIST LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY
SHALLOW SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR VSBY IN FOG AND SCT TO OCNL BKN
STRATUS/STRATOCU FROM N TX INTO SW/CENTRAL OK TOWARD END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E AND WILL TRACK TO OUR S
SUN-MON. THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL ROB US OF MUCH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN... PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME ST/SC BY SUNDAY
BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND LIMIT THEM TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MON AND MON NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME ANOTHER BALMY DAY FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN IN SOME AREAS...
MAINLY OUT W. FRIDAY`S HIGH OF 90 AT GAGE IS A NEW RECORD THERE FOR
NOVEMBER. HIGHS LIKELY TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS AND LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE SFC WIND COMPONENT. FOLLOWING THE
EARLY-WEEK SYSTEM... GULF WILL BE CHOKED OFF BY COMBINED EFFECTS
OF A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TROPICAL STORM IDA - OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS. THAT
AND THE RETURN OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN THE
MILD AND DRY PATTERN INTO TUE-WED. S WINDS WILL INCREASE THU IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED TROFFING OUT W. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY... WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS A MORE FAVORABLE
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM. THUS WE
WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY.

STILL NO SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT BUILD-UP OF REALLY COLD AIR FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS... AT LEAST NOT ANYWHERE THAT IT WOULD BE
POISED TO HEAD THIS WAY. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT WE WILL GET WELL
INTO NOVEMBER - THANKSGIVING OR BEYOND - WITHOUT A WIDESPREAD
KILLING FREEZE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  53  72  57 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         79  54  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  55  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           81  49  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  56  73  58 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         77  55  72  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KOUN 071706
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1106 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATION TO THE PACKAGE THIS MORNING... MAINLY
WITH SKY COVER. THE OPAQUE CIRRUS IS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA... WHILE THE CLOUDS
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... 500-M WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY OVER KS BUT
PROFILERS AND 12Z OUN RAOB STILL HAVE THEM STRONG ENOUGH AND
VEERED ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN FOR A COUPLE HRS
THIS MORNING. STRATUS/FOG OVER TX IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT TO ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO DO SO LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MOIST LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY
SHALLOW SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR VSBY IN FOG AND SCT TO OCNL BKN
STRATUS/STRATOCU FROM N TX INTO SW/CENTRAL OK TOWARD END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E AND WILL TRACK TO OUR S
SUN-MON. THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL ROB US OF MUCH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN... PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME ST/SC BY SUNDAY
BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND LIMIT THEM TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MON AND MON NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME ANOTHER BALMY DAY FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN IN SOME AREAS...
MAINLY OUT W. FRIDAY`S HIGH OF 90 AT GAGE IS A NEW RECORD THERE FOR
NOVEMBER. HIGHS LIKELY TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS AND LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE SFC WIND COMPONENT. FOLLOWING THE
EARLY-WEEK SYSTEM... GULF WILL BE CHOKED OFF BY COMBINED EFFECTS
OF A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TROPICAL STORM IDA - OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS. THAT
AND THE RETURN OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN THE
MILD AND DRY PATTERN INTO TUE-WED. S WINDS WILL INCREASE THU IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED TROFFING OUT W. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY... WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS A MORE FAVORABLE
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM. THUS WE
WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY.

STILL NO SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT BUILD-UP OF REALLY COLD AIR FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS... AT LEAST NOT ANYWHERE THAT IT WOULD BE
POISED TO HEAD THIS WAY. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT WE WILL GET WELL
INTO NOVEMBER - THANKSGIVING OR BEYOND - WITHOUT A WIDESPREAD
KILLING FREEZE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  78  53  72  57 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         79  54  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  55  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           81  49  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  56  73  58 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         77  55  72  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS64 KTSA 071702
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1102 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

IMMEDIATE CONCERNS ARE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25
KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TUL/XNA COULD HAVE A FEW
CLOSER TO 30 KTS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL MARGINALLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT TUL /AT THE
VERY LEAST/. CURRENT STRATOCU DECK IN SE OK NOT HANDLED REALLY
WELL BY MODELS SO DO NOT BELIEVE THAT POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS TMRW
ARE HANDLED WELL EITHER. WILL HINT AT SOME NEAR IFR CLOUDS AT MLC
AND FSM TOWARD TMRW MRNG...BEING THAT THESE ARE CLOSEST TO THE
CURRENT DECK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY DAY TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE AND WILL
REMAIN CLOUD FREE...ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. UPDATE WILL REFLECT THESE CLOUDS
AND ALSO THEIR EXPECTED THINNING/DISSIPATION INTO MID AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST ACROSS PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES
MAINLY...BUT UPPER 70S SHOULD STILL BE REALIZED. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS LOOKED LARGELY ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22

000
FXUS64 KTSA 071529
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY DAY TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE AND WILL
REMAIN CLOUD FREE...ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. UPDATE WILL REFLECT THESE CLOUDS
AND ALSO THEIR EXPECTED THINNING/DISSIPATION INTO MID AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS SHOULD ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST ACROSS PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES
MAINLY...BUT UPPER 70S SHOULD STILL BE REALIZED. OTHER FORECAST
ELEMENTS LOOKED LARGELY ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS FORTHCOMING.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18

000
FXUS64 KTSA 071123
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
523 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BRISK SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. LOWER WIND SPEEDS IN THE ARKANSAS
VALLEY WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY IN HAZE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS VALLEY
LOCATIONS.




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... TODAY
WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER. IN FACT... THE NEXT 3 DAYS APPEAR TO CONTINUE THE RECENT
TREND. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION... BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW AS WELL AS EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

MILD WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
COOLER... TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA JUST PAST
THE TIME RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...15

000
FXUS64 KOUN 071119
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
519 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... 500-M WINDS ARE DECREASING QUICKLY OVER KS BUT
PROFILERS AND 12Z OUN RAOB STILL HAVE THEM STRONG ENOUGH AND
VEERED ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN FOR A COUPLE HRS
THIS MORNING. STRATUS/FOG OVER TX IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT TO ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING BUT ARE MORE LIKELY TO DO SO LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MOIST LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY
SHALLOW SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR VSBY IN FOG AND SCT TO OCNL BKN
STRATUS/STRATOCU FROM N TX INTO SW/CENTRAL OK TOWARD END OF
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E AND WILL TRACK TO OUR S
SUN-MON. THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL ROB US OF MUCH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN... PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME ST/SC BY SUNDAY
BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND LIMIT THEM TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MON AND MON NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME ANOTHER BALMY DAY FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN IN SOME AREAS...
MAINLY OUT W. FRIDAY`S HIGH OF 90 AT GAGE IS A NEW RECORD THERE FOR
NOVEMBER. HIGHS LIKELY TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS AND LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE SFC WIND COMPONENT. FOLLOWING THE
EARLY-WEEK SYSTEM... GULF WILL BE CHOKED OFF BY COMBINED EFFECTS
OF A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TROPICAL STORM IDA - OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS. THAT
AND THE RETURN OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN THE
MILD AND DRY PATTERN INTO TUE-WED. S WINDS WILL INCREASE THU IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED TROFFING OUT W. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY... WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS A MORE FAVORABLE
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM. THUS WE
WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY.

STILL NO SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT BUILD-UP OF REALLY COLD AIR FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS... AT LEAST NOT ANYWHERE THAT IT WOULD BE
POISED TO HEAD THIS WAY. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT WE WILL GET WELL
INTO NOVEMBER - THANKSGIVING OR BEYOND - WITHOUT A WIDESPREAD
KILLING FREEZE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  53  72  57 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         79  54  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  55  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           81  49  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  56  73  58 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         77  55  72  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/24/24

000
FXUS64 KTSA 070900
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
300 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... TODAY
WILL BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY... WITH TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER. IN FACT... THE NEXT 3 DAYS APPEAR TO CONTINUE THE RECENT
TREND. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION... BUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW AS WELL AS EXPECTED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

MILD WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
COOLER... TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SIGNAL A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA JUST PAST
THE TIME RANGE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  58  79  56 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   80  51  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   80  59  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   80  52  80  54 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   76  52  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   79  54  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   80  57  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   78  58  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
F10   81  58  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   82  58  78  55 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....06

000
FXUS64 KOUN 070836
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
236 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY E AND WILL TRACK TO OUR S
SUN-MON. THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL ROB US OF MUCH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN... PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME ST/SC BY SUNDAY
BUT WE WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE AND LIMIT THEM TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE MON AND MON NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME ANOTHER BALMY DAY FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN IN SOME AREAS...
MAINLY OUT W. FRIDAY`S HIGH OF 90 AT GAGE IS A NEW RECORD THERE FOR
NOVEMBER. HIGHS LIKELY TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS AND LESS OF A DOWNSLOPE SFC WIND COMPONENT. FOLLOWING THE
EARLY-WEEK SYSTEM... GULF WILL BE CHOKED OFF BY COMBINED EFFECTS
OF A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH OVER THE E CONUS AND THE CIRCULATION
AROUND TROPICAL STORM IDA - OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS. THAT
AND THE RETURN OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH OR MAINTAIN THE
MILD AND DRY PATTERN INTO TUE-WED. S WINDS WILL INCREASE THU IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASED TROFFING OUT W. GFS BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY... WHILE ECMWF DEPICTS A MORE FAVORABLE
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM. THUS WE
WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS BEGINNING FRIDAY.

STILL NO SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT BUILD-UP OF REALLY COLD AIR FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS... AT LEAST NOT ANYWHERE THAT IT WOULD BE
POISED TO HEAD THIS WAY. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT WE WILL GET WELL
INTO NOVEMBER - THANKSGIVING OR BEYOND - WITHOUT A WIDESPREAD
KILLING FREEZE OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  53  72  57 /   0   0  10  10
HOBART OK         79  54  73  55 /   0   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  83  55  77  55 /   0   0  10  10
GAGE OK           81  49  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     77  56  73  58 /   0   0  10  10
DURANT OK         77  55  72  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/24

000
FXUS64 KTSA 070501
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
AGAIN BY MID SATURDAY MORNING. CALM WINDS WITHIN THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY WILL YIELD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KFSM. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM CST FRI NOV 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
SFC WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN AT MANY OK OBSERVING SITES
BETWEEN 10-20 MPH...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.
HAVE OPTED TO RAISE MINIMUMS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MOST OF ERN OK.
OTHERWISE FORECAST TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK...AS DO THE REST OF THE
1ST PERIOD ELEMENTS.

UPDATED ZFP/PFM/AFM OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  81  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   49  78  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   55  78  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   52  81  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   51  76  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   52  75  54  76 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   52  80  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  78  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
F10   54  79  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   50  77  53  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07