[top]
000
FXUS66 KPDT 082336 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
337 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON BLUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TONIGHT
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE IDAHO...MONTANA AREA. AT
THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO SOUTHWEST...WITH WAA INCREASING SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH MID WEEK. MAIN CONCERN FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 3500. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON AND OFF AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR ALL AREAS...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
WEBER
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE IN
BRINGING A FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH THEY DISAGREE SOMEWHAT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM. IN A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... THE GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW AND MOVES IT THROUGH THE AREA MORE SLOWLY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS A WEAKER OPEN TROUGH AND MOVES IT THROUGH FASTER. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND GIVEN THE AREA RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS WANTS TO BRING COLD
AIR ON A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS US IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF BUT IN EITHER CASE THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE APPROACHING AND PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS
AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM MOVING IN SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
WARM FRONT PROVIDING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN AND SNOW TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN ABOVE 5000 FEET AGL
THROUGH 09/15Z. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE CASCADES AFTER 09/18Z...AFFECTING KDLS AND
KYKM. CEILINGS MAY APPROACH MVFR LEVELS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS NEAR
KDLS AND KYKM. OTHERWISE BROKEN SKIES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE 5000 FEET
AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERRY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 33 54 38 53 / 10 10 40 20
ALW 35 54 41 54 / 20 10 30 20
PSC 33 50 36 54 / 10 10 50 10
YKM 31 47 35 51 / 10 20 30 10
HRI 30 51 38 55 / 10 10 30 10
ELN 30 46 34 49 / 20 30 40 10
RDM 25 47 34 51 / 10 10 50 20
LGD 29 51 36 52 / 0 10 30 20
GCD 27 52 36 52 / 0 10 30 20
DLS 34 46 38 55 / 10 40 30 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
89/83/83
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000
FXUS66 KPQR 082238
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
238 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. THEN A RATHER STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...AND BRISK WINDS.
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED MID WEEK AND BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOOKING MORE
OROGRAPHIC AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS
AHEAD OF THE THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL CANCEL THE CASCADE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW.
THIS NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AND LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE
MON MORNING...THEN E OF THE AREA BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
BIT OF A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE IN THE GFS...WITH ONE WEAK JET POINTED
TOWARD NORTHERN CA....WHILE THE OTHER SEGMENT IS POINTED TO VANCOUVER
ISLAND MON MORNING. THIS WEAK SPLIT MAY SERVE TO HOLD S-SE COASTAL
WINDS BELOW HIGH WIND LEVELS AT THE HEADLANDS EARLY MON. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL RISE ABOVE THE PASSES LATER TONIGHT AND ON MON... THEN
FALL BACK TO NEAR THE PASSES LATE MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THE HIGHER CASCADES OR THE SKI RESORTS COULD GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY TOTALS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AT THE PASSES. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT DO NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD
OR INTENSE AS THIS WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
INTO THE REGION ON WED...FOR ADDITIONAL VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. RW
.LONG TERM...MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE OF
THE REGION THU...BRINGING SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN
3000 AND 4000 FT. EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A POTENTIAL BREAK
IN THE WEATHER FROM LATE THU INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING AS A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ANOTHER PAC SYSTEM
MOVING IN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM THIS
SOLUTION SHOWING A BIT MORE RIDGING...WHICH WOULD HOLD THE STORM
TRACK A LITTLE TO THE N IF IT VERIFIES. RW
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CONTINUE NEAR THE PORTLAND METRO AREA...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT
OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SMALL HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES EARLY MON MORNING...CAUSING S WINDS TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY TO
MVFR/LOCAL IFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST...WITH AREAS OF
MVFR DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...AREAS OF MVFR ARE LINGERING AROUND THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE CIGS SHOULD LIFT
BREAK UP OR LIFT TO VFR BY 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
THE SHOWER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING S-SE WINDS
AND AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN DEVELOPING MON MORNING. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL BUOYS REPORTING 13-16 FT SEAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10-12 FT BY TUE MORNING. ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE FOR GALES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...GALE WARNING FOR CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM
THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
000
FXUS66 KMFR 082230
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VIS SHOWS CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND
WILL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN THE ILLINOIS VALLEY. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG
THE COAST AND IN NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING
WILL BUILD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONTO THIS EVENING KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL END UP COOLER WITH SOME
AREAS GETTING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE ROGUE VALLEY.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE NEXT FRONT REACHING THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AT THE
COAST...EXCEPT FOR CAPE BLANCO WHERE WINDS COULD PUSH 40+ MPH. THE
ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HINT AT A WAVE
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. SNOW
LEVELS MONDAY WILL START OUT AROUND 6500 FEET...THEN LOWERING TO
5500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL GENERALLY MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000
FEET NORTH AND 5000 FEET SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A INCH OR
TWO OF ACCUMULATION ALONG HWY 140 AND THE SISKIYOU SUMMIT BY TUESDAY
MORNING DEPENDING ON PRECIP INTENSITY AND DURATION.
A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
OFF AND ON SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS START
OUT AT AROUND 5000 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN LOWERING TO 4000
FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SUPPORT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT THEY VARY WIDELY ON THE TIMING OF INCOMING
SYSTEMS...SOMETIMES 180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE. WILL GO WITH A
GENERALLY WET FORECAST FROM THURSDAY ON...BUT WILL SMOOTH OUT
VARIATION IN THE POPS TO REFLECT THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NONE OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE INLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 15Z OR
SO IN THE ROGUE VALLEY IF THE CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE. MEANWHILE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AT
THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CIGS WILL
LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR NEAR KOTH AFTER 14Z.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-
ORZ022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM
THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ370-PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST
MONDAY FOR PZZ370.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ370-PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ376.
$$
PETRUCELLI
000
FXUS66 KPDT 082228
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
228 PM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON BLUE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. TONIGHT
A WEAK RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE IDAHO...MONTANA AREA. AT
THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT TO SOUTHWEST...WITH WAA INCREASING SNOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH MID WEEK. MAIN CONCERN FOR SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE WASHINGTON
CASCADE CREST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES AND SNOW LEVELS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 3500. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ON AND OFF AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR ALL AREAS...WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
WEBER
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE IN
BRINGING A FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH THEY DISAGREE SOMEWHAT AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM. IN A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS... THE GFS DEVELOPS A
CLOSED LOW AND MOVES IT THROUGH THE AREA MORE SLOWLY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS A WEAKER OPEN TROUGH AND MOVES IT THROUGH FASTER. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND GIVEN THE AREA RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW ABOVE 2500 TO 3000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT WHILE THE MOUNTAINS CONTINUE TO SEE A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS WANTS TO BRING COLD
AIR ON A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF HAS US IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AGAIN LEANED MORE
TOWARDS THE ECMWF BUT IN EITHER CASE THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL SEE WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL GIVE THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
BE APPROACHING AND PUT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS
AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE A FEW UPSLOPE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM MOVING IN SUNDAY LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG WITH THE
WARM FRONT PROVIDING SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT SUNDAY WITH MORE RAIN AND SNOW TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AND MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY
&&
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR WILL BE PREVALENT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH KDLS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS
OCCASIONALLY THROUGH 08/21Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS AND KPDT.
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY BROKEN ABOVE 5000 FT AGL THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT UNTIL 09/12 WHEN CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 33 54 38 53 / 10 10 40 20
ALW 35 54 41 54 / 20 10 30 20
PSC 33 50 36 54 / 10 10 50 10
YKM 31 47 35 51 / 10 20 30 10
HRI 30 51 38 55 / 10 10 30 10
ELN 30 46 34 49 / 20 30 40 10
RDM 25 47 34 51 / 10 10 50 20
LGD 29 51 36 52 / 0 10 30 20
GCD 27 52 36 52 / 0 10 30 20
DLS 34 46 38 55 / 10 40 30 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
89/83/83
[top]
000
FXUS65 KBOI 082158
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
255 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
DATA INDICATED THAT THE SHORTWAVE IS INDEED PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
AS PROGGED BY ALL THE MODELS. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
FOR SOME SHALLOW MOUNTAIN CU IN THE NORTH. THOSE CLOUDS WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AROUND BAKER AND
MCCALL. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ON MONDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COAST. THIS
WILL CAUSE GUSTY S-SE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN THE TREASURE VALLEY. THIS COULD HELP PUSH TEMPS UP EVEN FURTHER
THAN SHOWN IN THE GUIDANCE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. WITHOUT A
CLEAR-CUT WINNER...DECIDED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WITH THE FRONT INITIALLY LOOKS GOOD...BUT BY THE TIME IT
REACHES US IT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT. SO...AT THIS POINT QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WENT WITH MID-RANGE POPS WITH THIS
EVENT...GENERALLY IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE...MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OFF THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY AND PASS THROUGH IDAHO ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. DETAILS ON THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAVE BEEN QUITE VARIABLE FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE
NEXT. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH MAY EVOLVE
INTO A RATHER DEEP CLOSED LOW THAT WILL LINGER DIRECTLY OVER IDAHO
INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPEN
WAVE WHICH WOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OUR FORECAST
SHOWS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING IN THE OREGON ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE WET AND
COLD IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL IDAHO WHERE SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE VALLEYS. THE COLD SHOWERY PATTERN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT
MILDER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR
KMYL AND KBKE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST IN THE OREGON ZONES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB/JT
AVIATION.....JB
000
FXUS66 KPDT 081759
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
958 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.UPDATE...TODAY...SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
OREGON BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAINSHADOWING WILL KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES DRY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
MOVE NORTHEAST...SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDRETHS
OVER THE BASIN. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE AND TEMPS MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON. OTHERWISE MIN TS
LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WEBER
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH KDLS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY
THROUGH 08/21Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALL TAF LOCATIONS EXCEPT KDLS AND KPDT. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL BE GENERALLY BROKEN ABOVE 5000 FT AGL THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN
BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT UNTIL 09/12 WHEN CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE LESS THAN 15 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WEATHER DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND INTO THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
NEAR 3000 FEET...RISING TO NEAR 4000 FEET. AS SUCH...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES. DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN THE CASCADES GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON BY LATE
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...SEVERAL
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...WHILE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET MAY RECEIVE 1
TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. 82
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A SLOW EXIT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH. AS SUCH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WILL HAVE A LONGER DURATION
OF PRECIP. A DRIER BUT COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW IT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT CONTINUING UP
SLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON WEST
AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
WITH YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE MODELS THAT FAR OUT IN
TIME BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY SO WILL GO MAINLY CLIMO AT THAT
TIME WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD TO BEGIN WITH...BUT WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER BY THE
END OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
AND THE UPPER POLAR JET STREAM SAGS SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 34 54 36 / 10 10 10 40
ALW 57 37 54 40 / 20 10 10 50
PSC 56 35 52 38 / 20 0 10 50
YKM 46 32 48 33 / 30 10 20 30
HRI 54 33 53 37 / 10 0 10 40
ELN 45 33 46 34 / 40 10 30 40
RDM 51 22 47 29 / 10 10 10 30
LGD 49 28 51 37 / 10 0 10 30
GCD 49 29 52 40 / 10 0 10 30
DLS 48 35 48 38 / 30 10 30 30
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
89/83/83
000
FXUS66 KPQR 081657
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
857 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF COOL SHOWERY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY...WITH A THREAT OF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
THEN A RATHER STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN
SNOW...AND BRISK WINDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED MID WEEK AND
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY AS RADAR AND MODELS SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING INLAND. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME TENDENCY
FOR THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE OFF OF NORTH BEND HAS BEEN DETECTED SINCE 15Z BUT
THE COLD TOPPED CLOUDS OFFSHORE SHOW THAT THE THREAT SHOWN IN MODELS
REMAINS TODAY. HEAVY SHOWERS ON RADAR MOVING INTO THE N OREGON
CASCADES SUPPORTS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE S WA/N
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
AXIS OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BEING FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COAST UP
THROUGH THE S WA/N OREGON CASCADES.
THE SHOWERS DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. IT MOVES THROUGH MON AND EARLY MON NIGHT WITH MORE
RAIN...SNOW UP IN THE CASCADES...AND BRISK WINDS. THE COAST MAY GET
CLOSE TO HIGH WIND BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY JUST BELOW...AND ANALYZE
FURTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE ABOVE THE
PASSES LATER TONIGHT AND ON MON...THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR THE PASSES
MON NIGHT AND TUE. IT IS POSSIBLE THE HIGHER CASCADES OR THE SKI
RESORTS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY TOTALS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AT THE
PASSES. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT
DO NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE AS THIS WEEKEND. RW/TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COOL UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND THU. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERY WEATHER
WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT. EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM LATE THU INTO AT LEAST
FRI MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER PAC SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. RW
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...MVFR MAINLY IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY. SHOWERS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...AREAS OF MVFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING
GENERALLY VFR BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING AGAIN TODAY. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL BUOYS REPORTING 14-17 FT SEAS THIS MORNING...BELOW
OUR HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO 10-12 FT BY TUE MORNING. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEAGLE/WOLFE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...GALE WARNING FOR CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60
NM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE OUT 60 NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES TODAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 081655
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
855 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.UPDATE...TODAY...SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
OREGON BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS ALONG THE CASCADE
CREST WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAINSHADOWING WILL KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES DRY TODAY.
HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND
MOVE NORTHEAST...SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A COUPLE OF HUNDRETHS
OVER THE BASIN. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE AND TEMPS MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OREGON. OTHERWISE MIN TS
LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. WEBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WEATHER DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND INTO THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
NEAR 3000 FEET...RISING TO NEAR 4000 FEET. AS SUCH...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES. DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN THE CASCADES GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON BY LATE
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...SEVERAL
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...WHILE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET MAY RECEIVE 1
TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. 82
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A SLOW EXIT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH. AS SUCH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WILL HAVE A LONGER DURATION
OF PRECIP. A DRIER BUT COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW IT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT CONTINUING UP
SLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON WEST
AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
WITH YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE MODELS THAT FAR OUT IN
TIME BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY SO WILL GO MAINLY CLIMO AT THAT
TIME WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD TO BEGIN WITH...BUT WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER BY THE
END OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
AND THE UPPER POLAR JET STREAM SAGS SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. 88
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES SUCH AS DLS...YKM PSC AND ALW. RDM
AND PDT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 15 KTS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 34 54 36 / 10 10 10 40
ALW 57 37 54 40 / 20 10 10 50
PSC 56 35 52 38 / 20 0 10 50
YKM 46 32 48 33 / 30 10 20 30
HRI 54 33 53 37 / 10 0 10 40
ELN 45 33 46 34 / 40 10 30 40
RDM 51 22 47 29 / 10 10 10 30
LGD 49 28 51 37 / 10 0 10 30
GCD 49 29 52 40 / 10 0 10 30
DLS 48 35 48 38 / 30 10 30 30
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
89/83/83
000
FXUS65 KBOI 081654
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE BULK OF SE
OREGON/SW IDAHO THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WERE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY
SHOWERS WITH THESE CLOUDS AND WILL THUS LOWER THE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN WESTERN
WA/OR...IS STILL PROGGED TO TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH. ALONG WITH
LOWER POPS...THE MORNING UPDATE WILL INCLUDE LESS CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO TODAY WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. A FEW PATCHES OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA BY LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
LIKELY EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR KMYL AND KBKE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS PASSED EWD ACROSS
OUR NRN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...NOW GOING INTO WRN MONTANA. ANOTHER
DISORGANIZED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS WAS MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS OREGON AT 09Z. PROGS EXPECT THE LATTER WAVE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES FURTHER ENEWD...WITH ONLY SMALL POPS AGAIN FOR OUR NRN ZONES
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN ALL ZONES TONIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE COMES INTO SRN OREGON. CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BECOME
COLDER THAN THIS NIGHT...TEENS IN HIGHER MOUNTAINS...20S ELSEWHERE
...EXCEPT NEAR 30 AROUND BOI. COLD AIR WILL CONDENSE OUT PATCHY FOG
AROUND MYL AND BKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SHORT WAVE
RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR IDAHO ZONES MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 3-5F BELOW NORMAL...RISING TO NEAR NORMAL
MONDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE OREGON ZONES AND
IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO ON TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
AMPLIFIES AND TAPS INTO MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH DECREASING POPS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....CD
000
FXUS66 KMFR 081634
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER
THE CWA WITH ANY SHOWERS MOSTLY CONFINED TO COOS AND NORTHWEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. THE NAM AND
GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE NEXT FRONT TO THE COAST
MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AT THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK THEN WILL
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND
THEN STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN IS STILL IN THE WORKS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS IN THE ROGUE
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z. FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP IN THE UMPQUA BASIN WITH REDUCED VIS BETWEEN NOW AND
18Z...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO SCATTERED WITH VFR
CIGS. AT THE COAST VFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED...BUT THERE IS
CONCERN THAT CIGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR ALONG WITH REDUCED VIS IN
SHOWERS. VFR EXPECTED DURING THE DAY IN THE KLAMATH BASIN.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-
ORZ022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 AM TO
10 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ376.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-
PZZ370-PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-
PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350-
PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370.
$$
PETRUCELLI
000
FXUS66 KPQR 081059
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF COOL SHOWERY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY...WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
THEN A RATHER STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN... MOUNTAIN
SNOW...AND BRISK WINDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED MID WEEK AND
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH. WE STILL ARE SEEING LIGHTNING OFF THE
COAST AND ALONG THE COAST INTO THE COAST RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS CONTINUE TO
HAVE SOME MORE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE
AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH WHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
FOR QPF...WILL REISSUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES FOR TODAY...BUT NOT THE
LANE COUNTY CASCADES. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
AXIS OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BEING FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COAST UP
THROUGH THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
THE SHOWERS DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. IT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
MORE RAIN...SNOW UP IN THE CASCADES...AND BRISK WINDS. THE COAST MAY
GET CLOSE TO HIGH WIND BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY JUST BELOW. THE SNOW
LEVEL WILL RISE ABOVE THE PASSES LATER TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY...THEN
FALL BACK TO NEAR THE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE HIGHER CASCADES OR THE SKI RESORTS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
TOTALS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AT THE PASSES. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT PROBABLY NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE AS THIS WEEKEND. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COOL UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND THU. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERY WEATHER
WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT. EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM LATE THU INTO AT LEAST
FRI MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER PAC SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. RW
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...MVFR MAINLY IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH PROBABLY NOT INLAND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. A LOT OF SHOWERS TODAY
POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR. GOOD THREAT FOR MVFR BETWEEN
11-15Z. WOLFE
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT 19-22 FT SEAS. A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS SHOULD DROP TO 12 FT
BY TUE MORNING. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR GALES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...GALE WARNING FOR CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60
NM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE OUT 60 NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES TODAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 081026
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WEATHER DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AND INTO THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN BY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE
NEAR 3000 FEET...RISING TO NEAR 4000 FEET. AS SUCH...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES. DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...BUT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST IN THE CASCADES GIVEN MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORECAST
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON BY LATE
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...SEVERAL
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES...WHILE THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 5000 FEET MAY RECEIVE 1
TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. 82
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A SLOW EXIT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH. AS SUCH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WILL HAVE A LONGER DURATION
OF PRECIP. A DRIER BUT COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FOLLOW IT BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT CONTINUING UP
SLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON WEST
AND NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
WITH YET ANOTHER QUICK MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE MODELS THAT FAR OUT IN
TIME BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY SO WILL GO MAINLY CLIMO AT THAT
TIME WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD TO BEGIN WITH...BUT WILL TURN A LITTLE COOLER BY THE
END OF THE COMING WEEK AS THE OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST
AND THE UPPER POLAR JET STREAM SAGS SOUTHWARD BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. 88
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES SUCH AS DLS...YKM PSC AND ALW. RDM
AND PDT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 15 KTS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE LOCALLY BREEZY
WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 53 34 54 36 / 10 10 10 40
ALW 55 37 54 40 / 20 10 10 50
PSC 53 35 52 38 / 30 0 10 50
YKM 48 32 48 33 / 30 10 20 30
HRI 55 33 53 37 / 20 0 10 40
ELN 45 33 46 34 / 40 10 30 40
RDM 49 22 47 29 / 10 10 10 30
LGD 49 28 51 37 / 10 0 10 30
GCD 47 29 52 40 / 10 0 10 30
DLS 50 35 48 38 / 30 10 30 30
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
82/88/88
000
FXUS65 KBOI 081007
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
307 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SNOW SHOWERS PASSED EWD ACROSS
OUR NRN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT...NOW GOING INTO WRN MONTANA. ANOTHER
DISORGANIZED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH MORE CLOUDS WAS MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS OREGON AT 09Z. PROGS EXPECT THE LATTER WAVE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FURTHER ENEWD...WITH ONLY SMALL POPS AGAIN FOR OUR NRN
ZONES THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN ALL ZONES TONIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE COMES INTO SRN OREGON. CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO BECOME COLDER THAN THIS NIGHT...TEENS IN HIGHER MOUNTAINS...20S
ELSEWHERE ...EXCEPT NEAR 30 AROUND BOI. COLD AIR WILL CONDENSE OUT
PATCHY FOG AROUND MYL AND BKE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR IDAHO ZONES MONDAY WITH
SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE 3-5F BELOW NORMAL...RISING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AS THE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE OREGON ZONES AND
IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO ON TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
AMPLIFIES AND TAPS INTO MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE EAST OF
THE AREA WITH DECREASING POPS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING NORTH OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM BURNS TO BOISE. OTHERWISE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PRESS EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION.....CD
000
FXUS66 KMFR 081006
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
200 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...A COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL WEAKEN TODAY. THE NEXT
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN
MOVE INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS STORM WILL NOT
PRODUCE AS MUCH WIND AS THE PREVIOUS STORM...BUT SHOULD STILL
PROVIDE A HEALTHY SHOT OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST. ON TUESDAY BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF HOLD THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST WITH A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TUESDAY LOOK
PRETTY LIGHT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG SHORT WAVE.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
MAINTAIN A DEEP 500MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNSETTLED FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
LOCAL AREAS MVFR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR
ORZ021-ORZ022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
$$
RH/SN
000
FXUS66 KPDT 080522 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
922 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
AS SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES EAST INTO THE
BASIN. WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY VCSH FOR
KDLS AND KALW THROUGH 08/09Z. MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL RAISE AND WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH MOSTLY
WASHINGTON ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
KDLS AND KYKM AFTER 08/15Z. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN EASTWARD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND THE CASCADE CREST. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIP
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW NIGHT. FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS A BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE IDAHO...MONTANA
AREA MONDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WAA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN OREGON AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
CASCADES LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO. WEBER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONT WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE CASCADES AND 4500 FEET IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WEDNESDAY DOWN TO
3000 TO 3500 FEET AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WHOLE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
COLD AIR AND THE CASCADES WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 2000 TO 2500
FEET WHICH WOULD IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
BRIEF RIDGING WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION ASIDE FROM LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 37 53 37 55 / 50 10 10 10
ALW 41 53 38 54 / 60 20 10 10
PSC 39 54 36 53 / 60 20 0 10
YKM 32 49 32 47 / 40 20 10 20
HRI 37 53 36 54 / 50 10 0 10
ELN 31 46 32 46 / 40 20 10 20
RDM 30 49 30 52 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 36 48 32 50 / 40 10 0 10
GCD 28 47 32 51 / 40 10 0 10
DLS 37 51 35 49 / 40 20 10 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
84
000
FXUS66 KMFR 080455
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT WILL
AGAIN KEEP SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL AREA AS WELL IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. FROM COOS COUNTY EAST INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY THE AIR
MASS IS STILL UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AT 500HPA AND SHOWERS
MAY LINGER THERE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THE COAST...DOWN TO AROUND GOLD
BEACH...DOUGLAS COUNTY AND CASCADES...DOWN TO AROUND CRATER
LAKE...WILL BE THE ONLY PLACE IN OUR FORECAST AREA THAT COULD SEE
SHOWERS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE SUNDAY AND WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST ON
MONDAY. THIS IS ON TRACK WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST THOUGHT AND NO
UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST TONIGHT WITH LCL IFR
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK. MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSCURED
OVERNIGHT BUT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WHERE CIGS COULD DROP INTO MVFR. CONDITIONS INLAND IMPROVE
TO VFR WITH LESS CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL BUOYS ARE STILL REPORTING SWELLS AROUND 20 FEET
AT 16 TO 16 SECONDS. AS A RESULT BOTH THE HIGH SURF WARNING AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO
END SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
$$
08/99/99
000
FXUS66 KPQR 080424
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
825 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
SOME ON SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH...WHILE A WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MORE
RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BRISK WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFF
WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT THIS EVENING. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOWFALL TOTALS AT
CASCADE SNOTEL SITES AND AVALANCHE CENTER SITES SUGGEST TOTALS
AROUND 6 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY PAST WITH THE FRONT AND THE H8 FLOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND
BACKS SOME...WILL LET THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW EXPIRE AT 10 PM.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUCKLE SUN AND MON AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS SAY SOME SORT OF
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OUR AREA
SUN...WITH LOCAL MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF INCH
INDICATED IN THE GFS AND NAM. THIS COULD REQUIRE ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE S WA CASCADES SUN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DRY
OUT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SECTOR...THEN
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN MON AFTERNOON AND MOVE
E MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL
STRIP...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INLAND. SNOW LEVELS LIFT SOME AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY LOWER SOON ENOUGH TO GET
ENOUGH SNOW FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE CASCADES.
RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING RATHER IFFY.
GFS SHOWS DRYING AGAIN ON TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS FASTER TIMING WITH A MINIMAL PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
RW
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COOL UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND THU. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERY WEATHER
WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT. EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM LATE THU INTO AT LEAST
FRI MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER PAC SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. RW
&&
.AVIATION...VFR/ OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORSMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMA
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS THIS EVENING...BUT
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. YET ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR/ LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. BRIEF
SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MORE RAIN EXPECTED SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT 19-22 FT SEAS. A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR GALES ANTICIPATED
EARLY MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
OUT 60 NM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE OUT 60 NM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 080415
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
815 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
AS SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES EAST INTO THE
BASIN. WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE
WASHINGTON COLUMBIA BASIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN EASTWARD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND THE CASCADE CREST. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIP
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW NIGHT. FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS A BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE IDAHO...MONTANA
AREA MONDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WAA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN OREGON AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
CASCADES LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO. WEBER
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONT WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE CASCADES AND 4500 FEET IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WEDNESDAY DOWN TO
3000 TO 3500 FEET AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WHOLE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
COLD AIR AND THE CASCADES WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 2000 TO 2500
FEET WHICH WOULD IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
BRIEF RIDGING WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION ASIDE FROM LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY PREVALENT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 08/12Z.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS THROUGH 08/05Z THEN DROP TO BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. PERRY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 37 53 37 55 / 50 10 10 10
ALW 41 53 38 54 / 60 20 10 10
PSC 39 54 36 53 / 60 20 0 10
YKM 32 49 32 47 / 40 20 10 20
HRI 37 53 36 54 / 50 10 0 10
ELN 31 46 32 46 / 40 20 10 20
RDM 30 49 30 52 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 36 48 32 50 / 40 10 0 10
GCD 28 47 32 51 / 40 10 0 10
DLS 37 51 35 49 / 40 20 10 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
84
000
FXUS65 KBOI 080347
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
847 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...RAIN
BELOW 3-4K FEET MSL...EXPECTED ACROSS BAKER COUNTY UNTIL 7Z...AND
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 9-10Z...AS THE GREATER LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN THE BLUES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF
SNOW POSSIBLE SNOWIEST PLACES UNDER WESTERLY FLOW INCLUDING
BRUNDAGE MTN. GUSTY WINDS SW TO W TO 30 MPH FAR NORTH AS THIS
QUICK MOVING MOIST TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY
LEADS TO CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS
SUPPORTS PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES VS. TODAY LOOK
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY EXCEPT WITH MILDER SW FLOW WEST
OF THE STEENS AND FAR SOUTHERN IDAHO MOUNTAINS...IN THE WAKE OF
THE WAVE THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS MILDER BY
4-8 DEGREES EVERYWHERE...AND DRY. NO UPDATES PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS TO ONTARIO EAST. AREAS
OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NORTH OF THIS LINE ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE LINE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON SUNDAY EXPECT SOME MVFR AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TO PERSIST IN THE NORTH...OTHERWISE VFR CAN BE
EXPECTED. MODERATE WEST WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE
WHICH ENTERED WESTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON WILL TRACK E-NE AND BRUSH
BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL STAY
NORTH...BUT THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMES OFF THE PACIFIC AND TRACKS THROUGH THE
ID PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTH ON
SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PACNW.
DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS LATE SUN NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY GRADIENT
DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHEAST WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE WINDS WILL COME
A MILDER AIRMASS FOR MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
OREGON ZONES AND IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH DECREASING
POPS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....PF
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JB/JT
000
FXUS66 KPDT 072355 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
355 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN EASTWARD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND THE CASCADE CREST. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIP
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW NIGHT. FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS A BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE IDAHO...MONTANA
AREA MONDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WAA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN OREGON AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
CASCADES LOWERING THE SNOW LEVELS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
CASCADE CREST SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO. WEBER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONT WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE CASCADES AND 4500 FEET IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WEDNESDAY DOWN TO
3000 TO 3500 FEET AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WHOLE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
COLD AIR AND THE CASCADES WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 2000 TO 2500
FEET WHICH WOULD IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
BRIEF RIDGING WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION ASIDE FROM LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY PREVALENT
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 08/12Z.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS THROUGH 08/05Z THEN DROP TO BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. PERRY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 37 53 37 55 / 50 10 10 10
ALW 41 53 38 54 / 60 20 10 10
PSC 39 54 36 53 / 60 20 0 10
YKM 32 49 32 47 / 40 20 10 20
HRI 37 53 36 54 / 50 10 0 10
ELN 31 46 32 46 / 40 20 10 20
RDM 30 49 30 52 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 36 48 32 50 / 40 10 0 10
GCD 28 47 32 51 / 40 10 0 10
DLS 37 51 35 49 / 40 20 10 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
89/83/83
000
FXUS66 KMFR 072255
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
255 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF CLOUDS
RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEAR PORTLAND. THIS IS DUE TO A
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS APPROACHING THE OREGON COAST ALONG WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS HAS LEAD TO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT A FEW STRIKES HAVE SHOWN UP ABOUT 38 MILES
NORTHWEST OF NORTH BEND. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
REACH THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -28 C
WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS. IN ADDITION 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL
ALLOW SOME OF THESE STORMS TO MIGRATE INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR 43N AND 135 W WILL REACH THE COAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND BRING INCREASING SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
A MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
MOST SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES AND ALSO MOSTLY CONFINED
TO NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4000 AND 4500 FEET. SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW
AND MIDNIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES ABOVE 6000 FEET.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH
OF THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING WHICH IF CORRECT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
SHOWERS CONFINED TO COOS AND NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED EAST. AT THE SAME TIME BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWEST TOWARDS
VANCOUVER ISLAND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE SKY COVER OR LACK THEREOF
WHICH COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON MIN TEMPERATURES.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
END UP DELAYING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AT THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OF ON THE POPS FOR MONDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN IS LIKELY TO
STALL OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUPPORT
THIS IDEA.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE JET STREAM
SINKING INTO CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. MODEL
SURFACE PROJECTIONS ARE SLOWER THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THIS
PATTERN IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE COAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE...THEREFORE...MAINTAINED HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD THAN THE MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MODELS ARE NOW QUITE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING
THE PRIMARY FRONT THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERY AND COOL CONDITIONS
AS COLDER PORTION OF THE TROUGH ROTATES IN. MODELS ARE STILL
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE COLD CORE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACTS OF SIGNIFICANCE TO WATCH
IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW REACHING MANY OF THE EAST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS. THIS WILL
OCCUR IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTHEAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THESE AREAS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS VALLEYS LIKELY WILL SEE
LITTLE ACCUMULATION FOCUSED MAINLY IN AND AROUND THURSDAY. THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS...WILL LIKELY
SEE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY WARRANT ADVISORIES. WITH THE MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK OF THE COLD CORE...THE GREATEST ACCUMULATING SNOW THREAT IS
FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH...IN THE CRATER AND DIAMOND LAKE AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR IN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER IF ENOUGH CLEARING DEVELOPS IN THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND ROGUE VALLEY...IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 9 AND
12Z. MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY AT THE KLAMATH BASIN...BUT CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED AFTER DARK RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-
PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM
PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
99/99/99
000
FXUS66 KPQR 072248
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
248 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER UNSTABLE FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH...WHILE A
WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAIN. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BRISK WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A COOL UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
FOR TSTMS NEAR THE COAST. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN INLAND AREAS SHOULD PUSH
INTO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING...AND THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY IN THE N WILL LIKELY END. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE CASCADES CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH THE 10 PM TERMINATION
TIME AS THE SLUG OF PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY
AROUND 3500 TONIGHT.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUCKLE SUN AND MON AS THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS SAY SOME SORT
OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MAY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OUR
AREA SUN...WITH LOCAL MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF INCH
INDICATED IN THE GFS AND NAM. THIS COULD REQUIRE ANOTHER WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE S WA CASCADES SUN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DRY
OUT SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SECTOR...THEN
THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN MON AFTERNOON AND MOVE
E MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL
STRIP...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INLAND. SNOW LEVELS LIFT SOME AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY LOWER SOON ENOUGH TO GET
ENOUGH SNOW FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE CASCADES.
RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING RATHER IFFY.
GFS SHOWS DRYING AGAIN ON TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS FASTER TIMING WITH A MINIMAL PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
RW
.LONG TERM...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COOL UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING SE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT. EXTENDED
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM LATE
THU INTO AT LEAST FRI MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH.
ANOTHER PAC SYSTEM LOOKS LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. RW
&&
.AVIATION...TWO ORGANIZED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST
LINE IS CREATING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WITH LOCAL IFR EMBEDDED IN
THE HEAVIER AREAS OF RAIN. A SECOND LINE OF STORMS...CURRENTLY
WEAKER THAN THE FIRST...IS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR ASTORIA. THIS LINE
WILL LIKELY SPREAD MORE SHOWERS ONSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
OVERALL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON. YET ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. BRIEF SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
CELLS. SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. MORE RAIN EXPECTED SUN MORNING...POSSIBLY
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR.WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...COASTAL BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT 20-22 FT SEAS...SLIGHTLY
DOWN FROM THE EARLIER PEAK AROUND 23-27 FT. SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEREFORE WILL
REPLACE THE HIGH SURF WARNING WITH AN ADVISORY. ONE MORE ORGANIZED
ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY BRING SOME LIGHTNING AND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE
FORCE...BUT MOST OF THE GALES ARE DONE FOR NOW...PUSHED SOUTH OF
FLORENCE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR GALES
WITH A STRONGER FRONT ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
OUT 60 NM THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE OUT 60 NM THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 072230 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
230 PM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN EASTWARD. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND THE CASCADE CREST. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIP
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW NIGHT. FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM
WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS A BRIEF RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE IDAHO...MONTANA
AREA MONDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MAX AND MIN TS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THE NEXT WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH
WAA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN
OREGON AND A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AT THE SAME
TIME...COLDER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CASCADES LOWERING THE SNOW
LEVELS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE CASCADE CREST SHOULD BE AN
INCH OR TWO. WEBER
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FRONT WILL ARRIVE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET IN
THE CASCADES AND 4500 FEET IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WEDNESDAY DOWN TO
3000 TO 3500 FEET AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE WHOLE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
COLD AIR AND THE CASCADES WILL SEE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 2000 TO 2500
FEET WHICH WOULD IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
BRIEF RIDGING WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIPITATION ASIDE FROM LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. PERRY
&&
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 08/12Z. LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOWERED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THROUGH 08/06Z.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 15 KTS AFTER 08/06Z. PERRY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 37 53 37 55 / 50 10 10 10
ALW 41 53 38 54 / 60 20 10 10
PSC 39 54 36 53 / 60 20 0 10
YKM 32 49 32 47 / 40 20 10 20
HRI 37 53 36 54 / 50 10 0 10
ELN 31 46 32 46 / 40 20 10 20
RDM 30 49 30 52 / 20 10 10 10
LGD 36 48 32 50 / 40 10 0 10
GCD 28 47 32 51 / 40 10 0 10
DLS 37 51 35 49 / 40 20 10 20
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
89/83/83
000
FXUS65 KBOI 072149
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE
WHICH ENTERED WESTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON WILL TRACK E-NE AND BRUSH
BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL STAY
NORTH...BUT THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMES OFF THE PACIFIC AND TRACKS THROUGH THE
ID PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY...BUT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTREME NORTH ON
SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PACNW.
DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS LATE SUN NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY GRADIENT
DEVELOPS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHEAST WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE WINDS WILL COME
A MILDER AIRMASS FOR MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S ON MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND WEAK BANDS OF MOISTURE INLAND ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
OREGON ZONES AND IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF IDAHO ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INLAND ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WITH DECREASING
POPS AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KBKE AND KMYL TONIGHT WITH MTNS
OBSCURED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF
SOUTHERN OREGON AND SOUTHERN IDAHO TONIGHT WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS AND MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB/JT
AVIATION.....JB
000
FXUS66 KPDT 071749 AAA
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
950 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST TRACK...SO HAVE BUMPED MOST OF THE
AREA TO UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS ALONG LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT WAVE COMING
IN OFF THE COAST. QPF HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN NORTHEAST
OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AREA. AND HAVE DECREASED QPF
ALONG THE OCHOCOS AND JOHN DAY AREA AS CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS FURTHER NORTH. QPF CHANGE HAS NOT MADE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON PREVIOUS FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS. WEBER
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 08/12Z.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WINDS OF 10
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS THROUGH 08/06Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO BELOW 15 KTS AFTER 08/06Z. PERRY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND SUBSEQUENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. A SECOND MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN
TO ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET.
BREEZY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE SYSTEM PASSAGE. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME WEAK
RIDGING AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS A STRONGER FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEREFORE...THE AREA SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADE
CREST AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 82
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION AS THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT. HOWEVER THE COLD
FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING SO THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT. VERTICAL MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER AND WETTER AS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL BE LONGER WITH
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONG RANGE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY FRIDAY OR A MOIST AND UNSETTLED
FRIDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE FRIDAY`S FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AND LEAVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 56 38 54 33 / 30 50 10 10
ALW 56 41 55 36 / 50 60 20 10
PSC 60 38 56 33 / 20 60 10 0
YKM 51 32 51 30 / 20 40 10 10
HRI 59 38 55 32 / 20 50 10 0
ELN 49 30 49 30 / 20 40 10 10
RDM 46 31 49 26 / 20 20 10 10
LGD 48 34 50 31 / 30 40 10 0
GCD 46 28 50 32 / 20 40 10 0
DLS 51 38 54 34 / 40 40 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
89/83/83
000
FXUS66 KMFR 071714
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
914 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA
TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RELATIVE DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SHOWERS. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGEST MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FLOW IS FROM WEST TO EAST. IN
ADDITION COLD AIR ALOFT WILL REACH THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
500 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -26 AND -28 C. THEREFORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AND COAST. A FEW STRIKES ARE
ALREADY BEING OBSERVED ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF LINCOLN CITY. MOIST
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS
AGAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO WEST OF THE CASCADES.
&&
.AVIATION...AT THIS TIME VFR CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER THEY WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR AFTER
21Z AT THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN DUE TO INCREASING SHOWERS.
VISIBILITY WILL ALSO TEMPORALLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BETWEEN
21Z SATURDAY AND 02Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AND KLAMATH BASIN TODAY. HOWEVER MTNS
WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME OBSCURED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER 22Z.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-PZZ370.
$$
PETRUCELLI
000
FXUS66 KPQR 071659
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
859 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER UNSTABLE FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ON
SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH...WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN
AREAS. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BRISK WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A COOL UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES ENHANCING THE SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE LEADING PORTION OF
ONE SUCH BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE COAST WITH TSTMS SHOWING
ON LIGHTNING DETECTORS...RADAR AND THE ASTORIA METAR. SHEAR PROFILES
LOOK SIMILAR TO OVERNIGHT...NOT A LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT GOOD
SPEED SHEAR...AND THUS THE TSTMS NEAR THE COAST TODAY COULD AGAIN BE
ON THE STRONGER SIDE. THIS DISTURBANCE TRAILS OFF TO THE SW AND DOES
NOT APPEAR TO CLEAR OUR FORECAST AREA UNTIL SOME TIME THIS
EVENING...AFTER WHICH THE SHOWERS SHOULD EASE. AS A RESULT...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD
THROUGH THE 10 PM TERMINATION TIME. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3000
TO 3500 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE AND BACK SUN AND MON AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS SAY SOME SORT
OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT AT LEAST THE NW PART OF
OUR AREA SUN...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR
THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY THEN LIFTS N SUN NIGHT FOR DRYING. THE
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN MON AFTERNOON AND MOVE E
MON NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE GALES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INLAND.
SNOW LEVELS LIFT SOME AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THEY LOWER SOON ENOUGH TO GET ENOUGH SNOW FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THE CASCADES. RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING RATHER IFFY.
RW/TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SNOW LEVELS
WILL START FALLING AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN BEHIND IT. SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE REPLACE BY A RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF THIS
TREND HOLDS TRUE DRIER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
RUTHFORD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THIS FRONT IS ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE AT KAST AND WILL MOVE
SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT
ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STRONGEST CELLS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE PDX AREA BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z...AS COLD FRONT PRESENTLY NEAR KAST MOVES SLOWLY MOVES SE
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. BRIEF SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
HEAVIER CELLS.WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY LARGE SEAS AND GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SQUALLY WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS OF 23-27 FT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING BRIEF GALES TODAY.
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR GALES WITH A STRONGER FRONT ANTICIPATED LATE
SUN NIGHT/MON.WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM
TODAY.
HIGH SURF WARNING SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 071657
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
857 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUES THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING
MUCH QUICKER THAN THE FORECAST TRACK...SO HAVE BUMPED MOST OF THE
AREA TO UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS ALONG LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT WAVE COMING
IN OFF THE COAST. QPF HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN NORTHEAST
OREGON AND THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AREA. AND HAVE DECREASED QPF
ALONG THE OCHOCOS AND JOHN DAY AREA AS CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS FURTHER NORTH. QPF CHANGE HAS NOT MADE A MAJOR
IMPACT ON PREVIOUS FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS. WEBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND SUBSEQUENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. A SECOND MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN
TO ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET.
BREEZY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE SYSTEM PASSAGE. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME WEAK
RIDGING AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS A STRONGER FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEREFORE...THE AREA SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADE
CREST AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 82
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION AS THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT. HOWEVER THE COLD
FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING SO THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT. VERTICAL MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER AND WETTER AS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL BE LONGER WITH
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONG RANGE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY FRIDAY OR A MOIST AND UNSETTLED
FRIDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE FRIDAY`S FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AND LEAVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 88
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND CAUSE SOME SHOWERS TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A
RESULT OF THIS DUE TO DECREASED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY IN ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS TO
35 KTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
TONIGHT...THOUGH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 56 38 54 33 / 30 50 10 10
ALW 56 41 55 36 / 50 60 20 10
PSC 60 38 56 33 / 20 60 10 0
YKM 51 32 51 30 / 20 40 10 10
HRI 59 38 55 32 / 20 50 10 0
ELN 49 30 49 30 / 20 40 10 10
RDM 46 31 49 26 / 20 20 10 10
LGD 48 34 50 31 / 30 40 10 0
GCD 46 28 50 32 / 20 40 10 0
DLS 51 38 54 34 / 40 40 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
89/83/83
000
FXUS65 KBOI 071647
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
945 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND MOVING
SLOWLY OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH LIGHT PRECIP OCCASIONALLY BEING
RECORDED AT TWIN FALLS ASOS AND JEROME ASOS. MODELS INDICATE FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE BAND AFTER 18Z SO WILL FORECAST LOWER POPS THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN THE
BOISE/WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT ALL INDICATIONS WERE THAT THE
PRECIP IS VERY LIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
SUPPORT LOW-END POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHEASTERN OREGON WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. HOWEVER...LINGERING CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE IDAHO-NEVADA BORDER WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND WILL OBSCURE MOUNTAIN TOPS AT
TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...AT 09Z KCBX RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS CONTINUING IN A BAND
EXTENDING FROM THE SW CORNER OF IDAHO NEWD TO SRN CAMAS
COUNTY...PARALLEL TO THE REMAINS OF FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT WHICH WAS
NEAR THE SRN IDAHO BORDER. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO OUR CWA BUT SO FAR OTHER SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN HARD TO FIND. SAPIX SHOWED NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE
PACIFIC ALONG THE CASCADES AT 09Z AND MOVING RAPIDLY EAST...FOR A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR ZONES LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT VERY LOW MOS POPS SUGGEST THEY WON/T HAPPEN. WE THINK
THEY WILL. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL DUE TO CONTINUING MIXING WINDS
AND CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE 4000 FT
MSL BUT LITTLE CHANGE BELOW 4000 FEET UNDER STABLE INVERSION. A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH FOR HIGHER POPS TUESDAY...AND SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO AROUND 5K FEET MSL BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED MODELS REGARDING
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS THE GFS GIVES A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS SLOWER TIMING BUT PAINTS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THE
NATIONAL GUIDANCE PREFERRED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH THIS RESULTS IN ABOVE CLIMO POPS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JB
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....CD
000
FXUS66 KPQR 071059 CCA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
CORRECTED ADVISORY SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE THROUGH IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE A BIT UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BUCKLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...BRUSHING
THE AREA WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE
RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BRISK WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ONE SHORT WAVE IN
THIS FLOW CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. ONE STRONG STORM
CAME THROUGH THE NORTH LINCOLN CITY AND ROADS END AREA AROUND 930 PM
AND APPARENTLY DID SOME DAMAGE. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE MOSTLY EAST
OF OUR AREA BY SUNRISE.
A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS JUST NOW CROSSING 130W AND WILL REACH THE
COAST THIS MORNING AND PUSH INLAND IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS AGAIN. IT SHOULD
ALSO BE A BIT UNSTABLE WITH THIS BAND...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST BUT
POSSIBLY INLAND AGAIN AS WELL. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TO
OVERNIGHT...NOT A LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT GOOD SPEED SHEAR...AND
THUS THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST TODAY COULD AGAIN BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE. THIS SHORT WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO CLEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA UNTIL SOME TIME TONIGHT...AFTER WHICH THE SHOWERS SHOULD EASE.
AS A RESULT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES CONTINUES
TO LOOK GOOD INTO TONIGHT AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3000 TO
3500 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
WITH THE SHOWERS.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE AND BACK SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS SAY SOME SORT
OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT PART OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE GALES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL STRIP...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INLAND. SNOW LEVELS LIFT SOME
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY LOWER SOON
ENOUGH TO GET ENOUGH SNOW FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE
CASCADES. RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING RATHER IFFY. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SNOW LEVELS
WILL START FALLING AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN BEHIND IT. SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE REPLACE BY A RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF THIS
TREND HOLDS TRUE DRIER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
RUTHFORD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE SE
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 20Z-07Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY LARGE SEAS AND HIGH
WINDS. SEAS OF 23-27 FT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING BRIEF GALES TODAY.
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR GALES WITH A STRONGER FRONT ANTICIPATED SUN
NIGHT/MON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TODAY.
HIGH SURF WARNING SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
CONTINUES THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 071042
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
245 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND SUBSEQUENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER
WEATHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. A SECOND MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN
TO ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET.
BREEZY WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE SYSTEM PASSAGE. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SOME WEAK
RIDGING AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS A STRONGER FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THEREFORE...THE AREA SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR UPSLOPE SHOWERS INTO THE CASCADE
CREST AND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED BY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND WILL STAY MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 82
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION AS THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT. HOWEVER THE COLD
FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING SO THE DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT. VERTICAL MIXING WITH THE COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WHICH WILL DIMINISH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE
STRONGER AND WETTER AS A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH A MORE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL BE LONGER WITH
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONG RANGE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY FRIDAY OR A MOIST AND UNSETTLED
FRIDAY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT CHANGE FRIDAY`S FORECAST AT
THIS TIME AND LEAVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 88
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND CAUSE SOME SHOWERS TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A
RESULT OF THIS DUE TO DECREASED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY IN ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS TO
35 KTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
TONIGHT...THOUGH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. 88
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 52 35 54 33 / 30 40 10 10
ALW 53 39 55 36 / 50 60 20 10
PSC 54 36 56 33 / 20 50 10 0
YKM 49 31 51 30 / 20 40 10 10
HRI 54 35 55 32 / 20 40 10 0
ELN 48 32 49 30 / 20 50 10 10
RDM 45 27 49 26 / 20 20 10 10
LGD 47 35 50 31 / 30 30 10 0
GCD 45 35 50 32 / 20 20 10 0
DLS 50 37 54 34 / 40 40 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
82/88/88
000
FXUS66 KPQR 071030
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COOL SHOWERY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES
MOVE THROUGH IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
BE A BIT UNSTABLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BUCKLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY...BRUSHING
THE AREA WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE
RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BRISK WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ONE SHORT WAVE IN
THIS FLOW CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD RAIN
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. ONE STRONG STORM
CAME THROUGH THE NORTH LINCOLN CITY AND ROADS END AREA AROUND 930 PM
AND APPARENTLY DID SOME DAMAGE. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE MOSTLY EAST
OF OUR AREA BY SUNRISE.
A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS JUST NOW CROSSING 130W AND WILL REACH THE
COAST THIS MORNING AND PUSH INLAND IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL PRODUCE A GOOD BAND OF SHOWERS AGAIN. IT SHOULD
ALSO BE A BIT UNSTABLE WITH THIS BAND...ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST BUT
POSSIBLY INLAND AGAIN AS WELL. SHEAR PROFILES LOOK SIMILAR TO
OVERNIGHT...NOT A LOT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BUT GOOD SPEED SHEAR...AND
THUS THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST TODAY COULD AGAIN BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE. THIS SHORT WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR TO CLEAR OUR FORECAST
AREA UNTIL SOME TIME TONIGHT...AFTER WHICH THE SHOWERS SHOULD EASE.
AS A RESULT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CASCADES CONTINUES
TO LOOK GOOD INTO TONIGHT AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 3000 TO
3500 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
WITH THE SHOWERS.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE AND BACK SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS SAY SOME SORT
OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT PART OF OUR AREA
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD PRODUCE GALES AGAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL STRIP...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INLAND. SNOW LEVELS LIFT SOME
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THEY LOWER SOON
ENOUGH TO GET ENOUGH SNOW FOR ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE
CASCADES. RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING RATHER IFFY. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SNOW LEVELS
WILL START FALLING AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN BEHIND IT. SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE REPLACE BY A RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF THIS
TREND HOLDS TRUE DRIER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
RUTHFORD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR TODAY EXCEPT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE SE
ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 20Z-07Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE VERY LARGE SEAS AND HIGH
WINDS. SEAS OF 23-27 FT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING BRIEF GALES TODAY.
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR GALES WITH A STRONGER FRONT ANTICIPATED SUN
NIGHT/MON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE TODAY.
HIGH SURF WARNING SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KMFR 071008
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
200 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...A STRONG 500MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
WEAKENS SUNDAY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME AND THIS HAS INCREASED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NORTHWEST OREGON. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. LIKE PREVIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING ONSHORE...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OREGON. ON SUNDAY THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WEAKENS...SO EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND OUR REGION.
FOR MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT TO
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS IT MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE. BOTH THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE GRADIENTS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...SO NOT EXPECTING HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND INLAND OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST INCREASING THE THREAT
OF RAIN AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND INLAND VICINITY OF ROSEBURG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
$$
RH/SN
000
FXUS65 KBOI 070951
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
251 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SHORT TERM...AT 09Z KCBX RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS CONTINUING IN A BAND
EXTEMDING FROM THE SW CORNER OF IDAHO NEWD TO SRN CAMAS COUNTY...
PARALLEL TO THE REMAINS OF FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT WHICH WAS NEAR THE
SRN IDAHO BORDER. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT COOL AND
UNSTABLE AIR INTO OUR CWA BUT SO FAR OTHER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HARD TO
FIND. SAPIX SHOWED NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC ALONG
THE CASCADES AT 09Z AND MOVING RAPIDLY EAST...FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR ZONES LATER THIS MORNING...BUT VERY LOW MOS
POPS SUGGEST THEY WON/T HAPPEN. WE THINK THEY WILL. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH MIN TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL DUE TO CONTINUING MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS ABOVE 4000 FT
MSL BUT LITTLE CHANGE BELOW 4000 FEET UNDER STABLE INVERSION. A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MOIST PACIFIC TROUGH FOR HIGHER POPS TUESDAY...AND SNOW LEVELS
FALLING TO AROUND 5K FEET MSL BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED MODELS REGARDING
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
BASED ON THE 00Z RUNS THE GFS GIVES A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS SLOWER TIMING BUT PAINTS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY. WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY THE
NATIONAL GUIDANCE PREFERRED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. FOLLOWING
CLOSELY WITH THIS RESULTS IN ABOVE CLIMO POPS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...LOCAL MVFR/MTN OBSCURATION OVER THE IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF KBOI.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT
SOUTHWEST 30 KTS WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION.....CD
000
FXUS66 KMFR 070459
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF OREGON THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT
EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMING ASHORE WITH
OCCASIONAL BREAKS. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SIDES OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGE WILL SEE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVEL HOVERING AROUND 4500 FEET. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LATEST MODEL RUN STILL
INDICATES THAT SUNDAY COULD BE A DRY DAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
ARRIVES ON MONDAY EVENING. MID SHIFT MAY HAVE TO PARE DOWN INLAND
POPS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IN ON TRACK ON THE SHORT TERM AND NO UPDATE WILL
BE ISSUED THIS EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST WITH AREAS OF MVFR
IN SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
INLAND OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN SHOWERS AREA. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
$$
08/99/08
000
FXUS65 KBOI 070434
AFDBOI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
934 PM MST FRI NOV 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...WILL LOWER POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY...DRIER FORECAST FROM THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST WITH THE NEXT
WEAK IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
WILL ALSO LOWER SKY COVER AND QPF SLIGHTLY. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SW IDAHO
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS CONCENTRATED NEAR AND EAST OF KBOI THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE
MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. FOG DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY DUE
TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS. SE OREGON TO REMAIN VFR UNDER SCT-BKN SKIES
THROUGH 20Z SATURDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SE OREGON/SW IDAHO...THE CENTER OF WHICH
EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM STANLEY TO BOISE IN IDAHO...AND ROME IN SE
OREGON. THE SFC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS BAND...BASICALLY
IN A W-E ORIENTATION FROM SOUTH OF ROME TO SOUTH OF TWIN FALLS. BOTH
THE FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH...BUT MODELS
INDICATE THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN. THE UPPER JET RUNS
BASICALLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...HENCE THE SLOW MOVEMENT. SNOW
LEVELS ARE BETWEEN 6000 AND 6500 FEET BASED ON OBSERVED TEMPS AND
WEBCAMS. ALL MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIP BAND TO MAINTAIN ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME POSITION AS IT IS NOW...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT...THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST HIGHER POPS/QPF
BETWEEN BOISE AND TWIN FALLS WHERE THE BAND WILL SET UP...WITH BOISE
ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE BAND WEAKENS WITH A
DRIER TREND HEADED INTO SUNDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
BASICALLY DRY ASIDE FROM A LOW THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER. TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE...WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA MON/TUE WILL BRING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS TO THE MTNS WITH
LESS WARMING IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS WITH INVERSION DEVELOPING.
RIDGE EXITS LATE TUESDAY AS TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PAC MOVES INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 5K
FEET MSL BY WED...WITH COOLER TEMPS. LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE PAC NW THROUGH FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON DETAILS OF
TIMING ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AFTER TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....DG/JT
000
FXUS66 KPQR 070433
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
825 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SAT. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES IN THE
CASCADES. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT A BIT SUNDAY...BUT WET WEATHER
RETURNS FOR MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...KRTX RADAR INDICATES AN ENHANCED BATCH OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO
THE NORTH OREGON COAST RANGE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY
STILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SAT EVENING. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS...AND EVEN A COUPLE BANDS OF STEADY
PRECIP...ARRIVING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE ENHANCED
BAND CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE COAST MOVING THROUGH LATER TONIGHT
WITH A STRONGER BAND LATE SAT OR SAT EVENING WHICH MAY GIVE A PERIOD
OF STEADY PRECIP.
SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 3500 AND 4000 FEET THROUGH SAT...THEN
POSSIBLY DROP SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE. WITH PLENTY
OF PRECIP AND FAVORABLE W 850 MB FLOW...2 TO 3 FT OF NEW SNOW SEEMS
REASONABLE BETWEEN NOW AND LATE SAT NIGHT FOR THE CASCADES. CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OKAY RATHER THAN WINTER STORM WARNING DUE TO
FACT THAT THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE BUT MAINLY SPREAD OUT
OVER TIME.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER STRONG LOW SPINNING UP IN THE E GULF
OF ALASKA ON SUN AND MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME RIDGING OVER PAC
NW LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...
WILL BE A SHORT LIVED BREAK AS THAT SYSTEM WILL SEND A FRONT INTO
PAC NW ON MON.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SNOW LEVELS
WILL START FALLING AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES IN BEHIND IT. SHOWERY WEATHER WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXTENDED MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENING OUT ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE REPLACE BY A RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IF THIS
TREND HOLDS TRUE DRIER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
RUTHFORD.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE SE ACROSS THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY BETWEEN 05Z-09Z. YET ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONSHORE WITH MORE SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SAT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MAINLY VFR...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH PDX METRO
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.
&&
.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE VERY LARGE SEAS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE SWELLS WERE
GENERATED BY A STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. W-NW SWELLS OF
23-27 FT WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...THEN
VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT SAT AFTERNOON MAY BRING BRIEF GALES...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
GALES WITH A STRONGER FRONT ANTICIPATED SUN NIGHT/MON.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH SURF WARNING SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL
OREGON COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR THE CASCADES OF SOUTH
WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CONTINUES THROUGH
SAT NIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
000
FXUS66 KPDT 070344
AFDPDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
744 PM PST FRI NOV 6 2009
.UPDATE...ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION EXITED THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF MAINLY RAIN WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN LATE SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE SATURDAY EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THIS
SCENARIO HANDLED RATHER WELL. THE EVENING ZONE FORECAST UPDATE JUST
ISSUED CONTAINED ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WINDS AND SKY COVER FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. 78
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
WILL CARRY VCSH OR -RA AT ALL SITES FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY MORNING
AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AS TWO IMPULSES WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE AREA. COULD BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT KPSC...KPDT...AND KDLS
BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CEILINGS AT VFR
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET AGL...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST AREAS OF RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 37 56 36 53 / 10 30 40 10
ALW 40 57 39 53 / 10 50 50 20
PSC 40 58 37 55 / 10 20 30 10
YKM 33 53 32 52 / 20 20 30 10
HRI 37 58 35 55 / 10 20 30 10
ELN 34 51 32 49 / 20 20 40 10
RDM 28 50 27 50 / 20 20 30 10
LGD 35 50 35 49 / 10 30 30 10
GCD 34 49 33 50 / 10 30 40 10
DLS 38 54 38 54 / 20 40 40 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
THREAT INDEX
SATURDAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN
GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
78/78/78
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