[top]
000
FXUS61 KCTP 090259
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
959 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SAG THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS OR A SPRINKLE.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MAY PLAY A ROLL IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL
DEVELOP...AND HAS BEEN ADDED TO GRIDS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY REGION...PER CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...A
PRETTY UNEVENTFUL PATTERN EXCEPT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SW BREEZE. HIGHS WILL EQUAL OR EXCEED
TODAY`S VALUES...WHICH MEANS HIGHS AVERAGING 10-15 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
OTHER THAN PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT...NO WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
TO START THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC AND UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE EAST A BIT LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TEENS WITH 5H HGHTS RISING TO 585DAM. MAXES TUES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S POSSIBLE IN THE SRN TIER TUE. EXPECT M50S
N AND M/U60S BY WED AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH PA. TIMING
ON THE WEAK FRONT VARIES A BIT AT THIS RANGE...BUT MOST MEMBERS
PUT IT INTO OUR NWRN COS BY 18Z TUES. PWATS BARELY GET TO AN INCH
AND LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO LOW CHC POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD
DIE/DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER 30-40 POPS IN THE N/NW TUES.
NOW FOR TUES NIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE FM HRCN IDA WILL PROBABLY
ADVECT NE THROUGH THE SERN STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPCHG 5H
TROF MOVING THRU THE MS/OH VLYS. MOST MED RANGE MDLS/MEMBERS SHOW
THAT THE BULK OF THE MSTR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE S/E OF THE CWA.
PER PLUMES...VERY FEW GEFS MEMBERS MAKE MEAS PCPN IN LNS/MDT TUES
NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES NIGHT AREA
WIDE WITH THE FRONT AND TROP MSTR PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON US.
LATEST GFS IS FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT SFC DEVELOPMENT AS IDA
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROF...LEADING TO A MAJOR CYCLONE
AFFECTING THE SE COAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AT
THIS TIME.
ANOTHER MASSIVE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO SHUNT ANY TROP MSTR
TO OUR EAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH FRI.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE
PD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
I DID KEEP FOG IN MDT LATER TONIGHT...AS THEY WILL LEAST LIKELY
TO GET BACK INTO THE GRADIENT. I LEFT IPT OUT FOR NOW...THINKING
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO PREVENT
FOG. HOWEVER...THE INVERSION IS QUITE STRONG...AND IT IS NOT
THAT HARD TO FORM A THIN LAYER OF FOG AND HZ TOWARD SUNRISE
MOST MORNINGS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH CLDS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY. STILL THINK THE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE REMAINS OF IDA. THE
GFS BRINGS THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO S PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR...BUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG EARLY.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...JUNG/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPHI 090052
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
JUST PASSING EAST AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A DECENT
RADIATING NIGHT AS WE EXPECT TO DECOUPLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT FLOW OFF THE SURFACE. DEW POINTS AT MOST LOCATIONS START
FROM A RELATIVELY HIGH PLACE /NOT SO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST/, BUT
THE NIGHTS ARE PRETTY LONG NOW AND THEY SHOULD START TO DROP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE REGARDING MINS. FOR THE SHORT TERM UPDATES, WE HAVE BEEN
EDGING MIN TEMPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH EACH ISSUANCE.
AS FOR IDA AND MODEL VERIFICATION, USING THE VORT MAX FIELDS, A
CONSENSUS ECMWF/WRF-NMM/GFS SOLUTION WOULD WORK BETTER VS ANY
INDIVIDUAL MODEL ON THEIR RESPECTIVE 6 OR 12 HOUR FORECAST. THE
WRF APPEARS TOO FAR SW, GFS TOO FAR SE AND ECMWF TOO FAR W.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING FRONT, TOMORROW SHOULD FEATURE ANOTHER DAY
OF SUNSHINE /PERHAPS THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS/ WITH TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE TODAY. THESE ARE NOT RECORD
MAXES, BUT THEY ARE WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF RECORDS. WE
EXPECT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST BETWEEN INLAND MAXES AND
COASTAL ONES AS ANOTHER SEA BREEZE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CLOUDINESS OR WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT IT`S DIFFICULT TO FORECAST COMPLETE RADIATING AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING FRONT AND SO WE`VE JUST LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE
COOLER GUIDANCE.
FOR TUESDAY, GUIDANCE STILL IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE DESPITE FAIR DYNAMICS AND FRONTOGENESIS, AND SO WE
HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ON POPS. WE`VE ACCEPTED
THE MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHWEST AND RAISED IT A BIT
IN THE SOUTHEAST PER THE 12Z ECMWF H925 TEMPERATURE PROG.
WHATEVER MOISTURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT /MAINLY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT/ PER THE
00Z AND 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION IN THAT IT IS BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL MANIFESTATION OF
IDA CLOSE ENOUGH TO US TO BRING SOME DYNAMICS AND SOME I300
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH SOME PRETTY ROBUST MOISTURE INTO AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS
SOLUTION FOR NOW, AND WE ARE JUST CARRYING CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THAT PUTS US CLOSER TO THE MET POPS. WE ALSO HAVE
ACCEPTED MET GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAV VALUES BECAUSE OF
OUR DECISION ON THE MODELS OF CHOICE.
WE CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY JUST IN CASE THE CORRECT
SOLUTION TO THE TRACK OF IDA EVEN REMOTELY RESEMBLES THE 12Z GFS,
BUT BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE AREA AND SHUNTING IDA TO THE SOUTH AND SO THOSE CHANCE
POPS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC /THE MEAN TRACK OF THE TROPICAL MODELS
SEEMS TO TAKE IDA OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AN EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY/. THE ONLY THE NAM AND THE ECMWF DO SHOW IS A FAIR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. WE FAVOR HPC GUIDANCE
ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES OVER THE COLDER MEX VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW CONFIDENCE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP, AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
PESSIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA IN BRINGING THE TROPICAL LOW FURTHER NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH THE SOLUTION, BOTH FOR THE SURFACE AND AT UPPER
LEVELS. HPC SEEMS TO SIDE MORE WITH THE GFS. AT THIS TIME,
CONTINUITY FROM THE SHORT TERM WAS FOLLOWED FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOUTH AND CENTRAL, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURROUNDING OFFICES LIKED THE IDEA OF NO WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS DRAG THE SYSTEM AWAY, AND THIS THEME WAS ADOPTED FOR THURSDAY
FOR NOW. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE BUILT BY THE MODELS AND
HPC FOR SUCCEEDING TIME PERIODS, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEIGHBORS BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE OHIO
VALLEY WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WE JUST BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HPC TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO WORK WELL WITH THE FORECAST AIRMASS
TYPES, MORE HUMID TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THEN DRYING OUT WITH
TIME UNTIL A SOUTHERLY FLOW REASSERTS ITSELF FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH BENIGN RESULTS FOR THE TAF SITES. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT
MARGINAL VFR FOG COULD OCCUR AT THE MORE RURAL TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT; THE GFS MOS WAS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC ON THIS THAN
THE NAM MOS.
AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A CALM TO LIGHT WIND
WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES A BIT FARTHER TO OUR EAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CLOUD POTENTIAL, THEREFORE JUST SOME HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE TIME FRAME FROM
ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS MOISTURE COULD CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LEFTOVERS
OF NOW HURRICANE IDA, SO STAY TUNED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY WIND. FOR NOW, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
HOWEVER AS IT MOVES THROUGH DURING TUESDAY A WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEN, LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FROM
ABOUT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT REGARDING ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES IN
TIMING AND OVERALL SOLUTIONS AS TO WHAT HAPPENS WITH ENERGY FROM
CURRENT-HURRICANE IDA, THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST AND STRONG,
AND TOO FAR NORTH. SO, THE OVERDONE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED
DOWNWARD WITH CONTINUITY TO EDGE THE SEAS UP BY ABOUT 3 OR 4 FEET.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
PROBABLY PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT,
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK TO ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EITHER LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT OR DURING WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE PRESSURE
PATTERN, EVEN THE WEAKER AND MORE SUPPRESSED NAM/WRF INDICATES
LOW-END GALES FOR A TIME. AS A RESULT, WINDS WERE CAPPED AT 35 KNOTS
FOR NOW, TO AT LEAST INDICATE THE GALE POTENTIAL. THEN, HPC WAS
CLOSELY FOLLOWED, WHICH BRINGS HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR AREA DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS A SIDE NOTE, THE FORECAST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME TIDAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM.../
AVIATION...GORSE/
MARINE...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 082325
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
625 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SAG THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS OR A SPRINKLE.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MAY PLAY A ROLL IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MAX TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 70S OVER
THE SERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL PATTERN EXCEPT THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SW BREEZE. HIGHS WILL EQUAL OR EXCEED
TODAY`S VALUES...WHICH MEANS HIGHS AVERAGING 10-15 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
OTHER THAN PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT...NO WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
TO START THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC AND UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE EAST A BIT LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TEENS WITH 5H HGHTS RISING TO 585DAM. MAXES TUES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S POSSIBLE IN THE SRN TIER TUE. EXPECT M50S
N AND M/U60S BY WED AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH PA. TIMING
ON THE WEAK FRONT VARIES A BIT AT THIS RANGE...BUT MOST MEMBERS
PUT IT INTO OUR NWRN COS BY 18Z TUES. PWATS BARELY GET TO AN INCH
AND LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO LOW CHC POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD
DIE/DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER 30-40 POPS IN THE N/NW TUES.
NOW FOR TUES NIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE FM HRCN IDA WILL PROBABLY
ADVECT NE THROUGH THE SERN STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPCHG 5H
TROF MOVING THRU THE MS/OH VLYS. MOST MED RANGE MDLS/MEMBERS SHOW
THAT THE BULK OF THE MSTR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE S/E OF THE CWA.
PER PLUMES...VERY FEW GEFS MEMBERS MAKE MEAS PCPN IN LNS/MDT TUES
NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES NIGHT AREA
WIDE WITH THE FRONT AND TROP MSTR PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON US.
LATEST GFS IS FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT SFC DEVELOPMENT AS IDA
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROF...LEADING TO A MAJOR CYCLONE
AFFECTING THE SE COAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AT
THIS TIME.
ANOTHER MASSIVE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO SHUNT ANY TROP MSTR
TO OUR EAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH FRI.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE
PD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
I DID KEEP FOG IN MDT LATER TONIGHT...AS THEY WILL LEAST LIKELY
TO GET BACK INTO THE GRADIENT. I LEFT IPT OUT FOR NOW...THINKING
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO PREVENT
FOG. HOWEVER...THE INVERSION IS QUITE STRONG...AND IT IS NOT
THAT HARD TO FORM A THIN LAYER OF FOG AND HZ TOWARD SUNRISE
MOST MORNINGS THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...JUST A FEW MID AND HIGH CLDS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY. STILL THINK THE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE REMAINS OF IDA. THE
GFS BRINGS THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO S PA.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR...BUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG EARLY.
WED-FRI...MAINLY VFR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 082049
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AS TROPICAL SYSTEM IDA
PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
JUST PASSING EAST AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR A DECENT
RADIATING NIGHT AS WE EXPECT TO DECOUPLE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT FLOW OFF THE SURFACE. DEW POINTS AT MOST LOCATIONS START
FROM A RELATIVELY HIGH PLACE /NOT SO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST/, BUT
THE NIGHTS ARE PRETTY LONG NOW AND THEY SHOULD START TO DROP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE REGARDING MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRIOR TO THE ADVANCING FRONT, TOMORROW SHOULD FEATURE ANOTHER DAY
OF SUNSHINE /PERHAPS THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS/ WITH TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY WERE TODAY. THESE ARE NOT RECORD
MAXES, BUT THEY ARE WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF RECORDS. WE
EXPECT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CONTRAST BETWEEN INLAND MAXES AND
COASTAL ONES AS ANOTHER SEA BREEZE SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.
MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CLOUDINESS OR WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, BUT IT`S DIFFICULT TO FORECAST COMPLETE RADIATING AHEAD OF
AN ADVANCING FRONT AND SO WE`VE JUST LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE
COOLER GUIDANCE.
FOR TUESDAY, GUIDANCE STILL IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE DESPITE FAIR DYNAMICS AND FRONTOGENESIS, AND SO WE
HAVEN`T GONE ANY HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE ON POPS. WE`VE ACCEPTED
THE MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHWEST AND RAISED IT A BIT
IN THE SOUTHEAST PER THE 12Z ECMWF H925 TEMPERATURE PROG.
WHATEVER MOISTURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT /MAINLY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT/ PER THE
00Z AND 12Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z NAM. THE 12Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION IN THAT IT IS BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL MANIFESTATION OF
IDA CLOSE ENOUGH TO US TO BRING SOME DYNAMICS AND SOME I300
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH SOME PRETTY ROBUST MOISTURE INTO AT
LEAST OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS
SOLUTION FOR NOW, AND WE ARE JUST CARRYING CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. THAT PUTS US CLOSER TO THE MET POPS. WE ALSO HAVE
ACCEPTED MET GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAV VALUES BECAUSE OF
OUR DECISION ON THE MODELS OF CHOICE.
WE CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO WEDNESDAY JUST IN CASE THE CORRECT
SOLUTION TO THE TRACK OF IDA EVEN REMOTELY RESEMBLES THE 12Z GFS,
BUT BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE
INTO THE AREA AND SHUNTING IDA TO THE SOUTH AND SO THOSE CHANCE
POPS MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC /THE MEAN TRACK OF THE TROPICAL MODELS
SEEMS TO TAKE IDA OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH AN EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY/. THE ONLY THE NAM AND THE ECMWF DO SHOW IS A FAIR
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. WE FAVOR HPC GUIDANCE
ON WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES OVER THE COLDER MEX VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW CONFIDENCE PERIOD IS SHAPING UP, AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
PESSIMISTIC FOR OUR AREA IN BRINGING THE TROPICAL LOW FURTHER NORTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z HIGH-RESOLUTION ECMWF IS MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH THE SOLUTION, BOTH FOR THE SURFACE AND AT UPPER
LEVELS. HPC SEEMS TO SIDE MORE WITH THE GFS. AT THIS TIME,
CONTINUITY FROM THE SHORT TERM WAS FOLLOWED FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOUTH AND CENTRAL, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURROUNDING OFFICES LIKED THE IDEA OF NO WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS DRAG THE SYSTEM AWAY, AND THIS THEME WAS ADOPTED FOR THURSDAY
FOR NOW. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE SEEMS TO BE BUILT BY THE MODELS AND
HPC FOR SUCCEEDING TIME PERIODS, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEIGHBORS BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE OHIO
VALLEY WARM FRONT SATURDAY. WE JUST BROUGHT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
HPC TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO WORK WELL WITH THE FORECAST AIRMASS
TYPES, MORE HUMID TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THEN DRYING OUT WITH
TIME UNTIL A SOUTHERLY FLOW REASSERTS ITSELF FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE KPHL TERMINAL RADAR DATA INDICATED THAT THE
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING SINCE THIS MORNING.
THIS ALLOWED THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND EVEN BE
MORE VARIABLE AT TIMES. OVERALL, A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL GO
EITHER VARIABLE OR CALM BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, A LIGHT SEA/BAY BREEZE MAY AFFECT KACY AND KILG THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE, JUST A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY AT TIMES. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS UP THOUGH TONIGHT, COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS, SOME FOG LOOKS TO FORM LATE. SOME WAS
AROUND EARLIER THIS MORNING, THEREFORE WILL EXPAND THE FOG MENTION
/3-5SM AT THIS TIME/ TO ALL OUR TERMINALS EXCEPT KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN. WE PLACED THIS MENTION IN TOWARD MORNING FOR NOW.
AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A CALM TO LIGHT WIND
WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER TO OUR EAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CLOUD POTENTIAL, THEREFORE WILL JUST INCLUDE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED. THE TIME FRAME FROM
ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS MOISTURE COULD CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LEFTOVERS
OF NOW HURRICANE IDA. STAY TUNED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY WIND. AS OF NOW, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NEARBY THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT REALLY IMPACT THE WINDS MUCH INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERALL, A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEARSHORE, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK. SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
HOWEVER AS IT MOVES THROUGH DURING TUESDAY A WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BE SLIDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE FROM ABOUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT REGARDING
ENERGY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. WHILE THE COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES IN TIMING AND OVERALL SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
ENERGY FROM CURRENTLY HURRICANE IDA, THE GFS APPEARS TO BE TO
FAST AND WAY TO STRONG. THIS INFLUENCES THE WAVEWATCH DATA SINCE IT
IS DERIVED FROM THE GFS. AS A RESULT, WE DID NOT GO 100 PERCENT WITH
THE 12Z WAVEWATCH DATA, BUT ONLY BLENDED IN A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF IT
TO CONTINUITY TO EDGE THE SEAS UP ABOUT 3 TO 4 FEET. THIS IS MOSTLY
DUE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A POTENTIALLY PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT, ADVISORY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO ARRIVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EITHER LATER TUESDAY NIGHT OR DURING
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE PRESSURE PATTERN, EVEN THE WEAKER
AND MORE SUPPRESSED NAM/WRF INDICATES LOW-END GALES FOR A TIME. AS A
RESULT, WE CAPPED WINDS AT 35 KNOTS FOR NOW TO AT LEAST INDICATE THE
GALE POTENTIAL. WE THEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO HPC, WHICH BRINGS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.
AS A SIDE NOTE, THE FORECAST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW FROM ABOUT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME TIDAL FLOODING
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 082041
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
341 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SAG THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS OR A SPRINKLE.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MAY PLAY A ROLL IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MAX TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 70S OVER
THE SERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL PATTERN EXCEPT THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SW BREEZE. HIGHS WILL EQUAL OR EXCEED
TODAY`S VALUES...WHICH MEANS HIGHS AVERAGING 10-15 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
OTHER THAN PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT...NO WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
TO START THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC AND UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE EAST A BIT LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TEENS WITH 5H HGHTS RISING TO 585DAM. MAXES TUES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 60S POSSIBLE IN THE SRN TIER TUE. EXPECT M50S
N AND M/U60S BY WED AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH PA. TIMING
ON THE WEAK FRONT VARIES A BIT AT THIS RANGE...BUT MOST MEMBERS
PUT IT INTO OUR NWRN COS BY 18Z TUES. PWATS BARELY GET TO AN INCH
AND LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO LOW CHC POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD
DIE/DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER 30-40 POPS IN THE N/NW TUES.
NOW FOR TUES NIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE FM HRCN IDA WILL PROBABLY
ADVECT NE THROUGH THE SERN STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPCHG 5H
TROF MOVING THRU THE MS/OH VLYS. MOST MED RANGE MDLS/MEMBERS SHOW
THAT THE BULK OF THE MSTR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE S/E OF THE CWA.
PER PLUMES...VERY FEW GEFS MEMBERS MAKE MEAS PCPN IN LNS/MDT TUES
NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES NIGHT AREA
WIDE WITH THE FRONT AND TROP MSTR PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON US.
LATEST GFS IS FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT SFC DEVELOPMENT AS IDA
INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROF...LEADING TO A MAJOR CYCLONE
AFFECTING THE SE COAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE AND PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT NAM AT
THIS TIME.
ANOTHER MASSIVE AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO SHUNT ANY TROP MSTR
TO OUR EAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH FRI.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE
PD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE NEXT 24HRS OVER THE FCST
AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
SURROUNDING SUNRISE AS PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR CHC MVFR CIGS. MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
WED-THU...VFR PATCHY MVFR CIGS. ISO SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
[top]
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081951 AAA
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RATHER DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
THROUGH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS TRIES TO BRING
IDA REMNANTS NORTH AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF TO CREATE A
CLOSED LOW WELL INLAND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NAM KEEPS IDA
REMAINS SUPPRESSED FAR SOUTH, WITH OTHER MODELS HAVING VARIOUS
SCENARIOS BUT NONE AS EXTREME AS THE GFS. WHILE DEALING WITH
TROPICAL REMAINS IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC, WILL NOT FOLLOW GFS AND
WILL KEEP WITH A SOLUTION NEARER THE NAM, AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH HPC THINKING AS WELL. AS SUCH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH FRONT
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY.
BEGINNING OF FCST IS CLOSEST TO A NAM/EMCWF BLEND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE TROF AXIS. BEHIND THE TROF...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FASTER IN BUILDING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR THE LATE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
LATE ON SATURDAY...A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM ITS ASSOCD SFC LOW INTO THE THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CHC OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING WILL RETURN AS
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY LATE ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE A FRONT BOUNDARY PASSING LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCHC POPS SATURDAY AND CHC POPS INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...KEEPING
THE TERMINALS IN A WEAK SRLY FLOW WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO ADVECT NEWD INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. REDUCED CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCD PRECIP
WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAIN REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081946
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
246 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME RATHER DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES IN MODELS
THROUGH THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. GFS TRIES TO BRING
IDA REMNANTS NORTH AND PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF TO CREATE A
CLOSED LOW WELL INLAND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NAM KEEPS IDA
REMAINS SUPPRESSED FAR SOUTH, WITH OTHER MODELS HAVING VARIOUS
SCENARIOS BUT NONE AS EXTREME AS THE GFS. WHILE DEALING WITH
TROPICAL REMAINS IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC, WILL NOT FOLLOW GFS AND
WILL KEEP WITH A SOLUTION NEARER THE NAM, AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH HPC THINKING AS WELL. AS SUCH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH FRONT
TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY COOL DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY.
BEGINNING OF FCST IS CLOSEST TO A NAM/EMCWF BLEND WITH THE LOCATION
OF THE TROF AXIS. BEHIND THE TROF...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
IS FASTER IN BUILDING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FOR THE LATE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING...DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS.
LATE ON SATURDAY...A TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SWWD FROM ITS ASSOCD SFC LOW INTO THE THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CHC OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING WILL RETURN AS
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWRLY LATE ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE...WITH A LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE
MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THE A FRONT BOUNDARY PASSING LATE NEXT
WEEKEND...THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCHC POPS SATURDAY AND CHC POPS INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 081932
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SAG THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS OR A SPRINKLE.
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IDA MAY PLAY A ROLL IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAX TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 70S OVER
THE SERN ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A PRETTY UNEVENTFUL PATTERN EXCEPT THAT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST-SW BREEZE. HIGHS WILL EQUAL OR EXCEED
TODAY`S VALUES...WHICH MEANS HIGHS AVERAGING 10-15 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
OTHER THAN PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT...NO WEATHER TO SPEAK OF
TO START THE WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC AND UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE EAST A BIT ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS GET INTO THE LOWER TEENS
AND 5H HGHTS RISE TO 585DAM. MAXES ON MON AND TUES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMALS WITH 60S AND EVEN A FEW 70F READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
SRN TIER MON. EXPECT M50S N AND M/U60S ON TUES. TIMING ON THE
WEAK FRONT VARIES A BIT AT THIS RANGE...BUT MOST MEMBERS PUT IT
INTO OUR NWRN COS BY 18Z TUES. PWATS BARELY GET TO AN INCH AND
LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO LOW CHC POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD
DIE/DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER 30-40 POPS IN THE N/NW TUES.
NOW FOR TUES NIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE FM HURR IDA WILL PROBABLY
ADVECT NE THROUGH THE SERN STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPCHG 5H
TROF MOVING THRU THE MS/OH VLYS. MOST MED RANGE MDLS/MEMBERS SHOW
THAT THE BULK OF THE MSTR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE S/E OF THE CWA.
PER PLUMES...VERY FEW GEFS MEMBERS MAKE MEAS PCPN IN LNS/MDT TUES
NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES NIGHT
AREA WIDE WITH THE FRONT AND TROP MSTR PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON US.
ANOTHER MASSIVE/DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO SHUNT ANY TROP MSTR TO OUR
EAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NCENT US
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH FRI.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE
PD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE NEXT 24HRS OVER THE FCST
AREA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
SURROUNDING SUNRISE AS PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR CHC MVFR CIGS. MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
WED-THU...VFR PATCHY MVFR CIGS. ISO SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
000
FXUS61 KPHI 081752
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1252 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY, AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS
OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS
AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70, EVEN POSSIBLY SOME MID 70S
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.
GIVEN THOSE HIGHS TODAY AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES THAT GENERALLY
ARE IN THE 50S, WE THOUGHT THAT A SEA/BAY BREEZE MIGHT KICK IN.
THAT WOULD MAKE TEMPS NEAR THE COAST A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF
I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT`S CENTER
AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES
CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT MIGHT
WELL TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE
GET INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY
WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
I`M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW
WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF
COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF
THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND
HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE
CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS
OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE KPHL TERMINAL RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND EVEN BE MORE VARIABLE AT TIMES. OVERALL, A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
WILL GO EITHER VARIABLE OR CALM BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, A SEA/BAY BREEZE MAY AFFECT KACY AND KILG THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE, JUST A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY AT TIMES. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS UP THOUGH TONIGHT, COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS, SOME FOG LOOKS TO FORM LATE. SOME WAS
AROUND EARLIER THIS MORNING, THEREFORE WILL EXPAND THE FOG MENTION
/3-5SM AT THIS TIME/ TO ALL OUR TERMINALS EXCEPT KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN. WE PLACED THIS MENTION IN TOWARD MORNING FOR NOW.
AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A CALM TO LIGHT WIND
WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER TO OUR EAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CLOUD POTENTIAL, THEREFORE WILL JUST INCLUDE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED. THE TIME FRAME FROM
ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS MOISTURE COULD CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LEFTOVERS
OF NOW HURRICANE IDA. STAY TUNED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY WIND. AS OF NOW, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM
HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, MAY OR MAY
NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD GET STUCK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY,
I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT
WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...DELISI/EBERWINE/GIGI
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...RPW
000
FXUS61 KPHI 081738
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY, AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS
OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS
AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY IN THE 60S, WITH LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE
40S.
GIVEN THOSE HIGHS TODAY AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES THAT GENERALLY
ARE IN THE 50S, WE THOUGHT THAT A SEA/BAY BREEZE MIGHT KICK IN.
THAT WOULD MAKE TEMPS NEAR THE COAST A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF
I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT`S CENTER
AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES
CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT MIGHT
WELL TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE
GET INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY
WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
I`M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW
WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF
COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF
THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND
HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE
CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS
OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE KPHL TERMINAL RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
AND EVEN BE MORE VARIABLE AT TIMES. OVERALL, A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
WILL GO EITHER VARIABLE OR CALM BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, A SEA/BAY BREEZE MAY AFFECT KACY AND KILG THIS
AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE, JUST A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY AT TIMES. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEPS UP THOUGH TONIGHT, COUPLED WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS AND LACK OF CLOUDS, SOME FOG LOOKS TO FORM LATE. SOME WAS
AROUND EARLIER THIS MORNING, THEREFORE WILL EXPAND THE FOG MENTION
/3-5SM AT THIS TIME/ TO ALL OUR TERMINALS EXCEPT KPHL, KPNE AND
KTTN. WE PLACED THIS MENTION IN TOWARD MORNING FOR NOW.
AFTER ANY FOG BURNS OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, A CALM TO LIGHT WIND
WILL TEND TO SHIFT TO A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER TO OUR EAST. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A CLOUD POTENTIAL, THEREFORE WILL JUST INCLUDE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT, HOWEVER SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED. THE TIME FRAME FROM
ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CARRIES LOW CONFIDENCE
AS MOISTURE COULD CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LEFTOVERS
OF NOW HURRICANE IDA. STAY TUNED. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY WIND. AS OF NOW, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A
POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM
HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, MAY OR MAY
NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD GET STUCK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY,
I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT
WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS
WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...DELISI/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...RPW
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081624
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1124 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING UPDATE TO REMOVE ALL CLOUDS FROM GRIDS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
LEVELS...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 70S FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD. EXPECT MILD
MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH GFS/NAM DEPICT THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WELL TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR SO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WITH 60-65 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY
RESIDUAL SHWRS ENDING EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRING SHWRS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 081317
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
817 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY, AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS
OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS
AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
GENERALLY IN THE 60S, WITH LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE
40S.
GIVEN THOSE HIGHS TODAY AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES THAT GENERALLY
ARE IN THE 50S, WE THOUGHT THAT A SEA/BAY BREEZE MIGHT KICK IN.
THAT WOULD MAKE TEMPS NEAR THE COAST A BIT COOLER THAN INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF
I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT`S CENTER
AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES
CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT MIGHT
WELL TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE
GET INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY`S TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY
WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
I`M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW
WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF
COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF
THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND
HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE
CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS
OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WE CAN LOOK FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. THE FEW SC TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR TAF SITES. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PREDAWN FOG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS, MAINLY NW OR THE PHILLY METRO AREA.
OUTLOOK...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT AT 44009 EARLY THIS MORNING
AND NEVER REACHED 5 FT AT 44065. THEREFORE, WILL DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY
MORNING PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL
BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY
FROM HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN,
MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD
GET STUCK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE/DELISI
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/MEOLA
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081258
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
758 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIDGES...AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THERE SEEMS TO BE
SOME LIMITED BUILDING OF THESE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
SOME CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS GREENE/MARION COUNTIES DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
INVERSION DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM LEVELS...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 70S FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT MILD MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH GFS/NAM DEPICT THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WELL TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR SO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WITH 60-65 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY
RESIDUAL SHWRS ENDING EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRING SHWRS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 081143
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
643 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU TODAY.
CHALLENGES FOR TODAY RESIDE ARND DEW PT AND MAX TEMPS. A SLUG OF
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAURELS/ALLEGHENIES SHUD
QUICKLY SCOUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SUSQ-VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION. LLVL/S REMAIN DRY WITH
FURTHER SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED ARND 18Z...AS MIXED LYR INCREASES TO
ARND 2KFT AGL. AS A RESULT OF THE EFFICIENT SOLAR HEATING...DRY
BNDRY LYR...MAX TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ- VALLEY TO
SEE 70 FOR SOME SITES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
CONTINUED DRY WX OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING EAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LGT FROM THE SOUTH. ATMOS PARCELS WILL REMAIN
PARCHED...DECENT NOCTURNAL RADIATION WILL BE IN STORE OVERNIGHT.
STILL ANTICIPATE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT COMPARED TO CLIMO...ATTM
EXPECT U30S-L40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC AND UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE EAST A BIT ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS GET INTO THE LOWER TEENS
AND 5H HGHTS RISE TO 585DAM. MAXES ON MON AND TUES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMALS WITH 60S AND EVEN A FEW 70F READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
SRN TIER MON. EXPECT M50S N AND M/U60S ON TUES. TIMING ON THE
WEAK FRONT VARIES A BIT AT THIS RANGE...BUT MOST MEMBERS PUT IT
INTO OUR NWRN COS BY 18Z TUES. PWATS BARELY GET TO AN INCH AND
LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO LOW CHC POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD
DIE/DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER 30-40 POPS IN THE N/NW TUES.
NOW FOR TUES NIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE FM HURR IDA WILL PROBABLY
ADVECT NE THROUGH THE SERN STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPCHG 5H
TROF MOVING THRU THE MS/OH VLYS. MOST MED RANGE MDLS/MEMBERS SHOW
THAT THE BULK OF THE MSTR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE S/E OF THE CWA.
PER PLUMES...VERY FEW GEFS MEMBERS MAKE MEAS PCPN IN LNS/MDT TUES
NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES NIGHT
AREAWIDE WITH THE FRONT AND TROP MSTR PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON US.
ANOTHER MASSIVE/DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO SHUNT ANY TROP MSTR TO OUR
EAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NCENT US
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH FRI.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE
PD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU NEXT 24HRS AT MOST PA AIRFIELDS.
ANY CLOUDS ACROSS NW FROM A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE ABV 5KFT
AGL. THEN LGT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC CONTINUES THRU OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME CIRRUS FLOATING IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS NW MTNS
AIRFIELDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR CHC MVFR CIGS. LATE TUE ISO SHRA.
WED-THU...VFR PATCHY MVFR CIGS. ISO SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...BEACHLER
SHORT TERM...BEACHLER
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER
000
FXUS61 KCTP 080827
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
327 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...LEADING
TO THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU TODAY.
CHALLENGES FOR TODAY RESIDE ARND DEW PT AND MAX TEMPS. A SLUG OF
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAURELS/ALLEGHENIES SHUD
QUICKLY SCOUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SUSQ-VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION. LLVL/S REMAIN DRY WITH
FURTHER SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED ARND 18Z...AS MIXED LYR INCREASES TO
ARND 2KFT AGL. AS A RESULT OF THE EFFICIENT SOLAR HEATING...DRY
BNDRY LYR...MAX TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ- VALLEY TO
SEE 70 FOR SOME SITES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
CONTINUED DRY WX OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING EAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LGT FROM THE SOUTH. ATMOS PARCELS WILL REMAIN
PARCHED...DECENT NOCTURNAL RADIATION WILL BE IN STORE OVERNIGHT.
STILL ANTICIPATE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT COMPARED TO CLIMO...ATTM
EXPECT U30S-L40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC AND UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SLIDES TO THE EAST A BIT ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WHILE A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 8H TEMPS GET INTO THE LOWER TEENS
AND 5H HGHTS RISE TO 585DAM. MAXES ON MON AND TUES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMALS WITH 60S AND EVEN A FEW 70F READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
SRN TIER MON. EXPECT M50S N AND M/U60S ON TUES. TIMING ON THE
WEAK FRONT VARIES A BIT AT THIS RANGE...BUT MOST MEMBERS PUT IT
INTO OUR NWRN COS BY 18Z TUES. PWATS BARELY GET TO AN INCH AND
LITTLE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO LOW CHC POPS. THE FRONT SHOULD
DIE/DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE DAY TUE SOMEWHERE OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER 30-40 POPS IN THE N/NW TUES.
NOW FOR TUES NIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE FM HURR IDA WILL PROBABLY
ADVECT NE THROUGH THE SERN STATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPCHG 5H
TROF MOVING THRU THE MS/OH VLYS. MOST MED RANGE MDLS/MEMBERS SHOW
THAT THE BULK OF THE MSTR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE S/E OF THE CWA.
PER PLUMES...VERY FEW GEFS MEMBERS MAKE MEAS PCPN IN LNS/MDT TUES
NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES NIGHT
AREAWIDE WITH THE FRONT AND TROP MSTR PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON US.
ANOTHER MASSIVE/DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO SHUNT ANY TROP MSTR TO OUR
EAST. GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE NCENT US
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH FRI.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE
PD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS SHUD DOMINATE AIRFIELDS THRU 12Z...HOWEVER SOME ISO MVFR
CIGS COULD RESULT ACROSS LOWER SUSQ-VALLEY FROM NARROW STRATUS
DECK. THEN VFR CONDS RETURN TO ALL AIRFIELDS FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ANY CLOUDS ACROSS NW FROM A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE ABV
5KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR CHC MVFR CIGS. LATE TUE ISO SHRA.
WED-THU...VFR PATCHY MVFR CIGS. ISO SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...BEACHLER
SHORT TERM...BEACHLER
LONG TERM...DANGELO/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER/MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 080757
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
257 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST, AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS
OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE
COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF FROST
TO SCRAPE OFF. TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN 40S MONDAY MORNING.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF
I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A
HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT`S CENTER
AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA`S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES
CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO
SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT JUST WELL
TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE GET
INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY
WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
I`M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW
WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF
COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF
THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN
OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND
HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE
CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS
OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WE CAN LOOK FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM
TIME TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. THE FEW SC TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR TAF SITES. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PREDAWN FOG WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS, MAINLY NW OR THE PHILLY METRO AREA.
OUTLOOK...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY INTO
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.MARINE...
WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT AT 44009 EARLY THIS MORNING
AND NEVER REACHED 5 FT AT 44065. THEREFORE, WILL DROP THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY
MORNING PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL
BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND A POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY
FROM HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN,
MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD
GET STUCK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE.
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW
MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/MEOLA
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW
000
FXUS61 KCTP 080742
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
242 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THRU TODAY.
CHALLENGES FOR TODAY RESIDE ARND DEW PT AND MAX TEMPS. A SLUG OF
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LAURELS/ALLEGHENIES SHUD
QUICKLY SCOUR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SUSQ-VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST OF THE REGION. LLVL/S REMAIN DRY WITH
FURTHER SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED ARND 18Z...AS MIXED LYR INCREASES TO
ARND 2KFT AGL. AS A RESULT OF THE EFFICIENT SOLAR HEATING...DRY
BNDRY LYR...MAX TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S IN MANY
LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED. IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ- VALLEY TO
SEE 70 FOR SOME SITES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
CONTINUED DRY WX OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING EAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LGT FROM THE SOUTH. ATMOS PARCELS WILL REMAIN
PARCHED...DECENT NOCTURNAL RADIATION WILL BE IN STORE OVERNIGHT.
STILL ANTICIPATE A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT COMPARED TO CLIMO...ATTM
EXPECT U30S-L40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
SFC/UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MINS EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45F WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BALMY MID AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. THE LONE
ELEMENT THAT COULD TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F WILL BE A POTENTIAL
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ADVECTING NE THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TS IDA (AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER JETLET). ALL MODELS (NAM/GFS/EC) AND
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUES/TUES NIGHT (CHANGING TO
ISOLATED SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS) AS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN THE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PD...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS SHUD DOMINATE AIRFIELDS THRU 12Z...HOWEVER SOME ISO MVFR
CIGS COULD RESULT ACROSS LOWER SUSQ-VALLEY FROM NARROW STRATUS
DECK. THEN VFR CONDS RETURN TO ALL AIRFIELDS FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ANY CLOUDS ACROSS NW FROM A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE ABV
5KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR CHC MVFR CIGS. LATE TUE ISO SHRA.
WED-THU...VFR PATCHY MVFR CIGS. ISO SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...BEACHLER
SHORT TERM...BEACHLER
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER/MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080647
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
147 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE RIDGES...AS SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THERE SEEMS TO BE
SOME LIMITED BUILDING OF THESE CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WITH
SOME CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS GREENE/MARION COUNTIES DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
INVERSION DISSIPATES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM LEVELS...WITH HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 70S FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD.
EXPECT MILD MID/UPPER 40S FOR LOWS TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. BOTH GFS/NAM DEPICT THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WELL TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. WILL USE CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...WITH GENERALLY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TENTH INCH OR SO. WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WITH 60-65 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE COAST WEDNESDAY...WITH ANY
RESIDUAL SHWRS ENDING EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE WEEK FOR DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BRING SHWRS
TO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE ALONG THE RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR VFR CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...FKL-DUJ. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD ALSO SEE MVFR VIS IN
FOG THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ZZV/FKL. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 080549
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1249 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED WAA PRODUCING STRATOCU SHIELD
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS LK ONTARIO ATTM. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRATOCU WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
THE CHILLIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE WINDS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING CALM. ELSEWHERE
A LIGHT WEST TO SW FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MINS WELL ABV THOSE OBSERVED
LAST NIGHT. SOME RADIATION FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE NR DAWN OVR THE
SUSQ VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTION
IN GRIDS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WX
SUNDAY. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SUSQ VALLEY FOG OR
MTN STRATOCU SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...LEAVING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. 18Z NAEFS DATA SUGGEST HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH SHOULD FEEL QUITE WARM GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
SFC/UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MINS EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45F WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BALMY MID AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. THE LONE
ELEMENT THAT COULD TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F WILL BE A POTENTIAL
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ADVECTING NE THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TS IDA (AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER JETLET). ALL MODELS (NAM/GFS/EC) AND
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUES/TUES NIGHT (CHANGING TO
ISOLATED SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS) AS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN THE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PD...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS SHUD DOMINATE AIRFIELDS THRU 12Z...HOWEVER SOME ISO MVFR
CIGS COULD RESULT ACROSS LOWER SUSQ-VALLEY FROM NARROW STRATUS
DECK. THEN VFR CONDS RETURN TO ALL AIRFIELDS FOR REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ANY CLOUDS ACROSS NW FROM A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY WILL BE ABV
5KFT AGL.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE...VFR CHC MVFR CIGS. LATE TUE ISO SHRA.
WED-THU...VFR PATCHY MVFR CIGS. ISO SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...BEACHLER/MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 080252
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
952 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT SKIES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARD DAWN AS RECENT NAM MODEL
PROFILES SHOW LIFTING NEAR THE TOP OF THE SURFACE LAYER THAT COULD
INDUCE CLOUDS TO FORM THEN. ONCE THE WARM FRONTAL TYPE INVERSION
BREAKS MID MORNING...THE CLOUDS WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE.
RAISED FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON
WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT CLOUDS TO
THWART NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. TWEAKED FORECASTED HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY UP BY A DEGREE OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S AND RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED MAINLY AT
RELATIVELY NEW STATIONS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING, MAGNITUDE
OF COLD AIR, AND DEPTH OF UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. EARLY
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL THUS BE OF GENERAL
PERSISTENCE WITH DECLINING PRECIP PROBABILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THEREAFTER, QUICK MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO, THEN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IS EXPECTED WITH FLAT RIDGE PROJECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT RIDGE, WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES TO RETARD SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, WILL
PROVIDE A DRY CLOSE TO THE WORK-WEEK.
BY SATURDAY, NEXT LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE APPROACH SO PRECIP
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH RECENT NAM MODEL PROFILES AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...HEDGED BY GOING WITH MVFR STRATUS AND
FOG FOR TAF SITES NORTH OF THE KZZV-KPIT CORRIDOR WHILE
MAINTAINING CLEAR TO SCATTERED CLOUDS SOUTH.
EXPECT AS WARM FRONTAL INVERSION BREAKS BY MID MORNING FOR ANY
REMAINING CLOUDS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH 4-6 KTS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS MOVES THROUGH FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 080128
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
828 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER INFLUENCE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOW FOR THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR CWA AND IN SPITE OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT, THEY HAVE NEARLY DECOUPLED. WE ARE SEEING SOME SC AND AC
DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE AND WESTERN NY, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
WINDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING NVA AFTER ABT 03Z SHOULD
HELP FIGHT THE CLOUDS TRYING TO ENTER OUR CWA. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS WEAKER ALONG OUR BORDERS WITH BGM AND OKX, WE HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND WIND DOWNWARD AS PER CURRENT OBS AND THE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC 18Z MODEL DATA.
THEREFORE, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT UNDER, PERHAPS, SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS /NOT A GREAT
DEAL, AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE WAY NORTH/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN RESPONSE. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO, SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BE A FAIR RADIATING NIGHT /THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHOICE REGARDING
MINS BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV AND THE WARMER MET/. THAT SAID, THE
GENERAL TENOR IS FOR DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS THAT MAY EVENTUALLY
HAVE US REFERRING TO INDIAN SUMMER.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ONCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, AND
FOR NOW WE`VE GONE WITH THE TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF OVER THE
ATYPICALLY QUICKER 12Z NAM OR THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS PUSH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MOISTURE
FROM IDA OUT OF OUR AREA, AND THE FRONT WOULD NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT ENDS UP BEING CORRECT.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE ALSO MAY BE AN
UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDING SUPPORT, AND WE WON`T YET DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS KEEP THE IDA MOISTURE TOO FAR SOUTH, SO
WE`LL GO A BIT HIGHER WITH POPS ON TUESDAY THAN HPC IS GOING. WITH
THE ADVANCING FRONT, WE`LL LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH WE WON`T OVERDO IT AS THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG. CONTINUITY WAS FOLLOWED FOR TUESDAY
AS IT SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH OUR TIMING OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY, STAYING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG
AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING US HIGH AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE KINK IN THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IN THE GULF MAKING ITS WAY UP NORTH. THE GFS
TAKES THE REMNANT SYSTEM AND THEN MOVES IT UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME
DECENT RAIN TOT HE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER SOLUTION IN WHICH THE HIGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE AND KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH. THE CANADIAN MODEL
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE AND KEEP THE REMNANT LOW FROM PUSHING NORTHWARD THUS
KEEPING THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIGHTER SUNDAY
AND WITH MILDER AIR ARRIVING, THE SURFACE WINDS MAY TURN SOUTH OR
EVEN SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY AT KILG AND KACY DUE TO A POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE FROM NEARBY WATER.
OTHERWISE, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS RATHER LOW. WHILE A TOUCH OF RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KRDG, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ONTO THE
AIRFIELD /IF IT DOES INDEED DEVELOP/, THEREFORE IT WAS LEFT OUT AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A POSSIBLE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO
HIGH PRESSURE GETTING CLOSER INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
BRING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO OUR WATERS. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH, THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SOME RELATED TO A LOW-LEVEL JET.
AS A RESULT OF THIS JET AND SOME VERTICAL MIXING, SEAS HAVE RISEN
TO 5 FT AT BUOY 44009 THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GUSTING UP NEAR 25
KNOTS. WE HAVE THEREFORE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OCEAN FRONT IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHICH MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT FOR A TIME TO THE WEST. THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A POSSIBLE STORM IS TO OUR
EAST. THIS COUPLED WITH CAA WILL COMBINE FOR MORE EFFICIENT VERTICAL
MIXING AND AN INCREASED CHC OF WINDS/SEAS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN/, MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED OR IT COULD
JUST GET STUCK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE DID NOT GO WITH THE 12Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE /GFS
DRIVEN/ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS OVERDONE
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KCTP 080104
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
804 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKING
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED WAA PRODUCING STRATOCU SHIELD
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS LK ONTARIO ATTM. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRATOCU WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN PA OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PA...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
THE CHILLIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE WINDS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING CALM. ELSEWHERE
A LIGHT WEST TO SW FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MINS WELL ABV THOSE OBSERVED
LAST NIGHT. SOME RADIATION FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE NR DAWN OVR THE
SUSQ VALLEY...BUT PROBABLY NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTION
IN GRIDS AT THIS POINT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND WARM WX
SUNDAY. ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SUSQ VALLEY FOG OR
MTN STRATOCU SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...LEAVING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. 18Z NAEFS DATA SUGGEST HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH SHOULD FEEL QUITE WARM GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
SFC/UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MINS EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45F WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BALMY MID AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. THE LONE
ELEMENT THAT COULD TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F WILL BE A POTENTIAL
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ADVECTING NE THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TS IDA (AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER JETLET). ALL MODELS (NAM/GFS/EC) AND
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUES/TUES NIGHT (CHANGING TO
ISOLATED SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS) AS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN THE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PD...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDTIONS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE BFD...GIVEN THE 18Z TAF AND THE
CURRENT TAF FOR JHW. I DID SLOW TIMING OF LOWER SC DOWN SOME.
MAIN THINGS GOING FOR LOWER SC IS THE GROWING AREA OF CLDS
NORTH OF LAKE ONT...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORKING NE FROM
THE OH VLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT BREEZE AND THE LOCATION OF COLD
FRONT NOT THE BEST FOR THIS. ALSO CIGS NORTH OF LAKE ONT NOT
THAT LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
SO NOT EXPECTING LLWS TO BE AN ISSUE THIS FAR SOUTH. DID
LEAVE WINDS UP SOME AT IPT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AS SE TO EAST
FLOW CAN BE GUSTY IN THE EVENING.
DECENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUE. THE ONLY THING MAY
BE SOME FOG AT SOME SITES NEAR SUNRISE AFTER SUNDAY...AS
DEWPOINTS COME UP MORE...AND WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG
AT NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO EARLY WED.
THU NOT LOOKING THAT BAD AT THE CURRENT TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY MOISTURE WORKING NE FROM THE REMAINS OF IDA.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS SOME VLY FOG IN THE MORNING.
ALSO BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHWRS
ASSOC WITH FROPA LATER TUE INTO EALRY WED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KPHI 080044
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
744 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER INFLUENCE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOW FOR THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS OUR CWA AND IN SPITE OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT, THEY HAVE NEARLY DECOUPLED. WE ARE SEEING SOME SC AND AC
DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE AND WESTERN NY, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST
WINDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING NVA AFTER ABT 03Z SHOULD
HELP FIGHT THE CLOUDS TRYING TO ENTER OUR CWA. SO WHILE CONFIDENCE
IS WEAKER ALONG OUR BORDERS WITH BGM AND OKX, WE HAVE TRENDED
TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND WIND DOWNWARD AS PER CURRENT OBS AND THE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC 18Z MODEL DATA.
THEREFORE, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A DRY AND MILDER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT UNDER, PERHAPS, SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS /NOT A GREAT
DEAL, AND PERHAPS A BIT MORE WAY NORTH/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN RESPONSE. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO, SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BE A FAIR RADIATING NIGHT /THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHOICE REGARDING
MINS BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV AND THE WARMER MET/. THAT SAID, THE
GENERAL TENOR IS FOR DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS THAT MAY EVENTUALLY
HAVE US REFERRING TO INDIAN SUMMER.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ONCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, AND
FOR NOW WE`VE GONE WITH THE TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF OVER THE
ATYPICALLY QUICKER 12Z NAM OR THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS PUSH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MOISTURE
FROM IDA OUT OF OUR AREA, AND THE FRONT WOULD NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT ENDS UP BEING CORRECT.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE ALSO MAY BE AN
UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDING SUPPORT, AND WE WON`T YET DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS KEEP THE IDA MOISTURE TOO FAR SOUTH, SO
WE`LL GO A BIT HIGHER WITH POPS ON TUESDAY THAN HPC IS GOING. WITH
THE ADVANCING FRONT, WE`LL LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH WE WON`T OVERDO IT AS THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG. CONTINUITY WAS FOLLOWED FOR TUESDAY
AS IT SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH OUR TIMING OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY, STAYING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG
AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING US HIGH AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE KINK IN THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IN THE GULF MAKING ITS WAY UP NORTH. THE GFS
TAKES THE REMNANT SYSTEM AND THEN MOVES IT UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME
DECENT RAIN TOT HE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER SOLUTION IN WHICH THE HIGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE AND KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH. THE CANADIAN MODEL
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE AND KEEP THE REMNANT LOW FROM PUSHING NORTHWARD THUS
KEEPING THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD EVENING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIGHTER SUNDAY
AND WITH MILDER AIR ARRIVING, THE SURFACE WINDS MAY TURN SOUTH OR
EVEN SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY AT KILG AND KACY DUE TO A POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE FROM NEARBY WATER.
OTHERWISE, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS RATHER LOW. WHILE A TOUCH OF RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KRDG, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ONTO THE
AIRFIELD /IF IT DOES INDEED DEVELOP/, THEREFORE IT WAS LEFT OUT AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A POSSIBLE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO
HIGH PRESSURE GETTING CLOSER INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER WITH IT MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT, A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT FOR A TIME TO THE
WEST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SOME RELATED TO A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS IS WITHIN A WAA
REGIME, THEREFORE IT IS MOSTLY A QUESTION OF VERTICALLY MIXING THIS
WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT TENDS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DO THIS
IN WAA PATTERNS AND THIS LATEST ONE LOOKS MORE MARGINAL. SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEING REACHED, WE OPTED TO NOT HOIST THE ADVISORY AND GO WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR NOW. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A POSSIBLE STORM IS TO OUR
EAST. THIS COUPLED WITH CAA WILL COMBINE FOR MORE EFFICIENT VERTICAL
MIXING AND AN INCREASED CHC OF WINDS/SEAS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN/, MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED OR IT COULD
JUST GET STUCK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE DID NOT GO WITH THE 12Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE /GFS
DRIVEN/ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS OVERDONE
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI/GIGI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KCTP 072322
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
622 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO SCATTERED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES
OFF TO OUR EAST. SW GRADIENT SHUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A GUSTY
BREEZE DEVELOPING AS THE MORNING INVERSIONS START TO MIX OUT. THIS
WILL LEAD TEMPS TO SPIKE AS THE WIND SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR. AFTER THE CHILLY START...WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES WITH A
DIMINISHING WIND. THE CHILLIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER SERN PA WHERE
WHERE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING
CALM. ELSEWHERE A LIGHT WEST TO SW FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MINS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT.
LOOKS PRETTY UNEVENTFUL OVERALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE THE GEFS AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PATCHY OF THIN
ALTO CU AND CIRRUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS WILL BE A HEFTY 10 DEG OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
SFC/UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MINS EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45F WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BALMY MID AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. THE LONE
ELEMENT THAT COULD TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F WILL BE A POTENTIAL
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ADVECTING NE THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TS IDA (AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER JETLET). ALL MODELS (NAM/GFS/EC) AND
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUES/TUES NIGHT (CHANGING TO
ISOLATED SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS) AS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN THE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PD...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY LOOKING AT CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDTIONS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE BFD...GIVEN THE 18Z TAF AND THE
CURRENT TAF FOR JHW. I DID SLOW TIMING OF LOWER SC DOWN SOME.
MAIN THINGS GOING FOR LOWER SC IS THE GROWING AREA OF CLDS
NORTH OF LAKE ONT...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WORKING NE FROM
THE OH VLY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT BREEZE AND THE LOCATION OF COLD
FRONT NOT THE BEST FOR THIS. ALSO CIGS NORTH OF LAKE ONT NOT
THAT LOW AT THE CURRENT TIME. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...
SO NOT EXPECTING LLWS TO BE AN ISSUE THIS FAR SOUTH. DID
LEAVE WINDS UP SOME AT IPT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AS SE TO EAST
FLOW CAN BE GUSTY IN THE EVENING.
DECENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUE. THE ONLY THING MAY
BE SOME FOG AT SOME SITES NEAR SUNRISE AFTER SUNDAY...AS
DEWPOINTS COME UP MORE...AND WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG
AT NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATER TUE INTO EARLY WED.
THU NOT LOOKING THAT BAD AT THE CURRENT TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY MOISTURE WORKING NE FROM THE REMAINS OF IDA.
OUTLOOK...
MON-THU...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS SOME VLY FOG IN THE MORNING.
ALSO BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHWRS
ASSOC WITH FROPA LATER TUE INTO EALRY WED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
000
FXUS61 KCTP 072018
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
318 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO SCATTERED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES
OFF TO OUR EAST. SW GRADIENT SHUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A GUSTY
BREEZE DEVELOPING AS THE MORNING INVERSIONS START TO MIX OUT. THIS
WILL LEAD TEMPS TO SPIKE AS THE WIND SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR. AFTER THE CHILLY START...WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES WITH A
DIMINISHING WIND. THE CHILLIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER SERN PA WHERE
WHERE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING
CALM. ELSEWHERE A LIGHT WEST TO SW FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MINS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT.
LOOKS PRETTY UNEVENTFUL OVERALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE THE GEFS AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PATCHY OF THIN
ALTO CU AND CIRRUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS WILL BE A HEFTY 10 DEG OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
SFC/UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MINS EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45F WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BALMY MID AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. THE LONE
ELEMENT THAT COULD TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F WILL BE A POTENTIAL
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ADVECTING NE THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TS IDA (AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER JETLET). ALL MODELS (NAM/GFS/EC) AND
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUES/TUES NIGHT (CHANGING TO
ISOLATED SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS) AS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN THE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PD...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY SW FLOW OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN 2/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY MID WEEK WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND MOISTURE
SPREADING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TAKE AIM AT THE EASTERN US.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...BCMG MVFR/IFR IN SHWRS ASSOC WITH FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 072013
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
INFLUENCE INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOW FOR
THE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE MAY KEEP
TONIGHT FROM BEING THE WHOLESALE RADIATING NIGHT THAT LAST NIGHT
WAS. WE GENERALLY HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
WHERE THERE IS A DIFFERENCE. ALSO, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BRING SOME
MOISTURE IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, WITH THE NAM GENERALLY BEING
MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT THIS THAN THE GFS, AND BOTH DEFINITELY BEING
MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT IT UP NORTH THAN DOWN SOUTH. THEREFORE, WE
EXPECT A DRY AND NOTICEABLY MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT UNDER,
PERHAPS, SOME DEVELOPING CLOUDS /NOT A GREAT DEAL SOUTH, AND PERHAPS
A BIT MORE NORTH/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OFF THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD IN RESPONSE. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS ALOFT FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT EXPECT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALSO, SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BE A FAIR RADIATING NIGHT /THERE CERTAINLY IS A CHOICE REGARDING
MINS BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV AND THE WARMER MET/. THAT SAID, THE
GENERAL TENOR IS FOR DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS THAT MAY EVENTUALLY
HAVE US REFERRING TO INDIAN SUMMER.
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ONCE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, AND
FOR NOW WE`VE GONE WITH THE TIMING OF THE 00Z ECMWF OVER THE
ATYPICALLY QUICKER 12Z NAM OR THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS PUSH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MOISTURE
FROM IDA OUT OF OUR AREA, AND THE FRONT WOULD NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IF THAT ENDS UP BEING CORRECT.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS SOME FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE AND
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE ALSO MAY BE AN
UPPER LEVEL JET PROVIDING SUPPORT, AND WE WON`T YET DISMISS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE MODELS KEEP THE IDA MOISTURE TOO FAR SOUTH, SO
WE`LL GO A BIT HIGHER WITH POPS ON TUESDAY THAN HPC IS GOING. WITH
THE ADVANCING FRONT, WE`LL LEAN TOWARD THE MILDER GUIDANCE ON MONDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH WE WON`T OVERDO IT AS THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE
NOT PROGGED TO BE THAT STRONG. CONTINUITY WAS FOLLOWED FOR TUESDAY
AS IT SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH OUR TIMING OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON TUESDAY, STAYING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN GIVE WAY TO A VERY STRONG
AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HIGH LOOKS TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING US HIGH AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE KINK IN THIS FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IN THE GULF MAKING ITS WAY UP NORTH. THE GFS
TAKES THE REMNANT SYSTEM AND THEN MOVES IT UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME
DECENT RAIN TOT HE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF HAS A DRIER SOLUTION IN WHICH THE HIGH IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS THE MOISTURE AND KEEP IT TO OUR SOUTH. THE CANADIAN MODEL
HAS SHIFTED BACK TO LOOK MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE HIGH WILL
DOMINATE AND KEEP THE REMNANT LOW FROM PUSHING NORTHWARD THUS
KEEPING THE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AND HAVE
KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH HAS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE LATEST DATA INDICATES SOME 25 KNOTS OF WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. MOST OF THIS WILL NOT MIX DOWN INTO THIS
EVENING DUE TO THE AIR MASS MODERATING, ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE
SURFACE, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUSTAINED WINDS,
THEREFORE WE JUST BUMPED UP THE SUSTAINED WINDS A BIT THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, THE VERTICAL
MIXING WILL QUICKLY WANE THEREFORE THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT ARE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO SOME WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY OF
10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD EVENING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIGHTER SUNDAY AND WITH
MILDER AIR ARRIVING, THE SURFACE WINDS MAY TURN SOUTH OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY AT KILG AND KACY DUE TO A POSSIBLE INFLUENCE
FROM NEARBY WATER.
OTHERWISE, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS RATHER LOW. WHILE A TOUCH OF RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KRDG, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ONTO THE
AIRFIELD /IF IT DOES INDEED DEVELOP/, THEREFORE IT WAS LEFT OUT AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A POSSIBLE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO
HIGH PRESSURE GETTING CLOSER INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER WITH IT MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT, A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT. THERE WILL BE A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT FOR A TIME TO THE
WEST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, THE WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN SOME RELATED TO A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS IS WITHIN A WAA
REGIME, THEREFORE IT IS MOSTLY A QUESTION OF VERTICALLY MIXING THIS
WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT TENDS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DO THIS
IN WAA PATTERNS AND THIS LATEST ONE LOOKS MORE MARGINAL. SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BEING REACHED, WE OPTED TO NOT HOIST THE ADVISORY AND GO WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR NOW. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE ON
SUNDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.
THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO CROSS THE AREA MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A POSSIBLE STORM IS TO OUR
EAST. THIS COUPLED WITH CAA WILL COMBINE FOR MORE EFFICIENT VERTICAL
MIXING AND AN INCREASED CHC OF WINDS/SEAS REACHING ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN/, MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED OR IT COULD
JUST GET STUCK IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BASED ON THE
UNCERTAINTY, WE DID NOT GO WITH THE 12Z WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE /GFS
DRIVEN/ TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS OVERDONE
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH A
RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071830
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
130 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD UNDER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WENT JUST
UNDER MOS TONIGHT AS WITH LOW DEW POINTS AND POSSIBLE DECOUPLING
MAY BE ABLE TO RADIATE DOWN A BIT. NEAR WARM MOS SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH INTO THE 70S AND RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED MAINLY AT
RELATIVELY NEW STATIONS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TUESDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY OR
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING, MAGNITUDE
OF COLD AIR, AND DEPTH OF UPPER/MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. EARLY
PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL THUS BE OF GENERAL
PERSISTENCE WITH DECLINING PRECIP PROBABILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THEREAFTER, QUICK MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO, THEN ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES IS EXPECTED WITH FLAT RIDGE PROJECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT RIDGE, WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES TO RETARD SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, WILL
PROVIDE A DRY CLOSE TO THE WORK-WEEK.
BY SATURDAY, NEXT LOW/COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE APPROACH SO PRECIP
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A DECLINE IN
TEMPERATURE.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
CANADA. RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS HAS/WILL
GENERATE AFTERNOON WIND OF APPROXIMATELY 10 TO 12 KTS WITH GUSTS
SLIGHTLY OVER 20KTS.
WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES AND AS SURFACE
TROUGH/WEAK FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THAT
BOUNDARY IN THE EARLY MORNING OF SUNDAY. HAVE THUS FORECAST SOME
VFR CEILINGS AT FKL AND DUJ AS PER EXPECTED PROGRESS OF THAT
WEAKENING FRONT, WHICH SHOULD WASH OUT RAPIDLY AS SUNDAY MORNING
PROGRESSES.
GENERAL VFR IS THEN EXPECTED UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO VFR WITH MID WEEK HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KPHI 071737
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1237 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TODAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS THEN ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN INTO THE TWENTIES THIS MORNING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON ENDED TWO DAYS AGO ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MORNING CHILL IN THE AIR
WILL TURN INTO A NICE SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING BY TONIGHT WITH
A FEW CLOUDS WELL NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ABOUT 5 OR 6 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CAN`T HELP BUT NOTICE THE HUGE OUTFLOW FROM T.S. IDA WHICH IS TAKING
UP THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MOISTURE FROM T.S. IDA AND THE APPROACHING FRONT
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT WILL NOT REACH US LATE THIS
PERIOD. SUNDAY AND MONDAY`S HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST MODELS KEEP THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THEN
SWEEP IT OFFSHORE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE GEM ON THE OTHER
HAND SHOWS A LOW FORMING IN THE TENNESSEE WITH THE MOISTURE FROM
THE T.S. MOVING NORTHEAST.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT IT STARTS OUT RELATIVELY BENIGN. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE EARLY ON AND A DRY FCST
IS IN STORE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN, THINGS GET MORE MUDDLED.
A SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACRS ERN CANADA ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CDFNT
THROUGH THE MID-ATLC. THE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THAT
OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER, THEN THE DIFFS SET IN. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH
WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SERN CONUS.
HOW THIS INTERACTS WITH THE CDFNT AND WHERE IT MOVES IS THE MAJOR
QUESTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A VERY STRONG HIGH PRES SYS
OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS HIGH HELPS
SUPPRESS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE TO THE S OF OUR REGION. THE GFS
IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS SO AND IS ALSO
STRONGER WITH THE H5 TROF BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY
BE A PLAYER AS WELL. THE CMC IS LESS HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND THE MOISTURE, WHICH BRINGS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE UP
OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES. THE CMC IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER, BUT IT
HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THE EXTENDD PORTION OF THE FCST OF LATE.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS MOISTURE AND FRONT, ALL MDL
INDICATE THAT BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND DRY WX. DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVENT, WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHNGS TO THE
FCST. ATTM, WILL FOLLOW GUID TEMPS AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH HAS
BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE LATEST DATA INDICATES SOME 20 KNOTS OF WIND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IT IS BELIEVED THAT MOST OF THIS WILL NOT
MIX DOWN DUE TO THE AIR MASS MODERATING, ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE COME UP A LITTLE BIT MORE,
THEREFORE WE BUMPED UP THE SUSTAINED WINDS A BIT THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONCE WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING, THE VERTICAL MIXING
WILL QUICKLY WANE THEREFORE THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR THOSE TERMINALS THAT ARE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO SOME WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL HAVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
LATE. ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY OF
10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARD EVENING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO LIGHTER SUNDAY AND WITH
MILDER AIR ARRIVING, THE SURFACE WINDS MAY TURN SOUTH OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY AT KILG AND KACY DUE TO A POSSIBLE INFLUENCE
FROM NEARBY WATER.
OTHERWISE, SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. ANY STRATOCUMULUS THAT FORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT LATER TONIGHT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THE FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS RATHER LOW. WHILE A TOUCH OF RIVER FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KRDG, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ONTO THE
AIRFIELD /IF IT DOES INDEED DEVELOP/, THEREFORE IT WAS LEFT OUT AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A POSSIBLE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO
HIGH PRESSURE GETTING CLOSER INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
SMALL SEAS TO OUR WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND/OR SEAS COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE HIGH REACHES OUR AREA AND BRINGS A RETURN
TO MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...RPW
000
FXUS61 KCTP 071638
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1138 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO SCATTERED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES
OFF TO OUR EAST. SW GRADIENT SHUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A GUSTY
BREEZE DEVELOPING AS THE MORNING INVERSIONS START TO MIX OUT. THIS
WILL LEAD TEMPS TO SPIKE AS THE WIND SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR. AFTER THE CHILLY START...WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES WITH A
DIMINISHING WIND. THE CHILLIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER SERN PA WHERE
WHERE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING
CALM. ELSEWHERE A LIGHT WEST TO SW FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MINS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT.
LOOKS PRETTY UNEVENTFUL OVERALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE THE GEFS AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PATCHY OF THIN
ALTO CU AND CIRRUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS WILL BE A HEFTY 10 DEG OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
SFC/UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MINS EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45F WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BALMY MID AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. THE LONE
ELEMENT THAT COULD TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F WILL BE A POTENTIAL
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ADVECTING NE THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TS IDA (AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER JETLET). ALL MODELS (NAM/GFS/EC) AND
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUES/TUES NIGHT (CHANGING TO
ISOLATED SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS) AS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN THE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GUSTY SW FLOW OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN 2/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY MID WEEK WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND MOISTURE
SPREADING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TAKE AIM AT THE EASTERN US.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...BCMG MVFR/IFR IN SHWRS ASSOC WITH FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 071543
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1043 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE DEGREES AS MORNING
IS OFF TO A WARMER START. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...A FEW CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-70 REACHING THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MID
CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED
TO CLIP THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...DURING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 071145
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS ABOUT A 300MI WIDE BAND OF LYRD ALTO CU AND
CIRRUS MOVG ACROSS WCENT PENN EARLY THIS MORNG...IN ASSOC WITH A
WEAK SHRTWV/VORT MAX PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GRT LKS INTO
THE UPR OH VLY. MAIN SENSIBLE WX IMPACT HAS BEEN ON TEMPS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN COMING UP SEVERAL DEGS AS THE
CLDS MOVE OVERHEAD. SFC ANAL SHOWS BROAD SFC HIGH ALONG/EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS GRADUALLY SLIPPING SEWD TWD THE
CAROLINAS...YIELDING SOMEWHAT TO DEVELOPING WAA REGIME AHEAD OF
UPPER PLAINS/MIDWEST FNTL SYS. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID AND UPR LVL CLOUD BAND SUGGESTS SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
AFTN TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ZONES WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SSWLY WINDS/WAA WILL BE. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO STAYED SEVERAL DEGS WARMER (OVERNIGHT) GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ABOUT A 5-8DEG HEAD START
DIURNALLY...WHEN COMPARED TO ERN AREAS WHICH HAVE COOLED SEVERAL
DEGS LOWER UNDER A MAINLY CLR SKY. FURTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 50S WHICH IS ABOUT AN EVEN DOUBLE OF CURRENT
/RATHER CHILLY/ READINGS IN THE MID 20S. OVERALL...A COLD START
BUT A NICE REBOUND IN AFTN TEMPS TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
/EVEN SEVERAL DEGS ABV NORMAL IN THE SOUTH/WEST ZNS/ FOR THE FIRST
SATURDAY OF NOVEMBER...NOT TO MENTION THE FIRST DRY
SATURDAY/WEEKEND FOR SOME TIME.
THE WEAK MIDWEST FNTL SYS WILL PUSH SEWD FM THE LWR GRT LKS TNT
BCMG NEARLY STNRY NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WWD BACK INTO THE OH VLY.
MAIN CHALLENGE OVRNGT WILL BE CLOUDS AS GUID SUGGESTS SOME
SHALLOW MSTR WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
(INVERSION) IN THE WAKE OF THE DIFFUSE FNTL PASSAGE. BUFKIT
PROFILES/SNDGS SHOW THIS QUITE WELL...WITH ANY PCPN TAKING THE
FORM OF A VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SPIT OF DRIZZLE IF THAT...AS
SATURATION IS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KFT AGL. CLD COVER COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR MINS AS AREAS THAT REMAIN CLR FOR ANY EXTNDD PD
OF TIME WILL SEE TEMPS DROP OFF QUICKLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE THE GEFS AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PATCHY OF THIN
ALTO CU AND CIRRUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS WILL BE A HEFTY 10 DEG OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
SFC/UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MINS EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45F WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER BALMY MID AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. THE LONE
ELEMENT THAT COULD TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F WILL BE A POTENTIAL
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ADVECTING NE THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TS IDA (AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER JETLET). ALL MODELS (NAM/GFS/EC) AND
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUES/TUES NIGHT (CHANGING TO
ISOLATED SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS) AS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN THE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO SIG CHANGES MADE TO THE PREV TAF PACKAGE.
SFC HIGH PRES NOW CENTERED OVER THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY SLIP
SEWD THIS WEEKEND...AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. MAINLY VFR
CONDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER POST-FNTL
CIGS PSBL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY ESP ACROSS THE NRN
TERMINALS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS /BFD-JST-IPT/. INC SSWLY GRADIENT
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL BLYR MIXING
AND RESULT IN OCNL 15-20KT GUSTS. MORNG CLDS WILL BE SCT-BKN BTWN
10-25KFT...INDICATIVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATM. THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STNRY NEAR THE PA/MD LINE EARLY SUN...THEN LIFT NWD AS A WARM FNT
SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. BY MID WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FNTL BNDRY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL TRY TO INTERACT
WITH REMNANT MSTR STREAMING NWD FROM THE GOMEX ASSOC TC
IDA...WHICH MAY BRING PDS OF LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS TUE/WED IN
SHWRS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...BCMG MVFR/IFR IN SHWRS ASSOC WITH FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 070950
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS ABOUT A 300MI WIDE BAND OF LYRD ALTO CU AND
CIRRUS MOVG ACROSS WCENT PENN EARLY THIS MORNG...IN ASSOC WITH A
WEAK SHRTWV/VORT MAX PUSHING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GRT LKS INTO
THE UPR OH VLY. MAIN SENSIBLE WX IMPACT HAS BEEN ON TEMPS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN COMING UP SEVERAL DEGS AS THE
CLDS MOVE OVERHEAD. SFC ANAL SHOWS BROAD SFC HIGH ALONG/EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS GRADUALLY SLIPPING SEWD TWD THE
CAROLINAS...YIELDING SOMEWHAT TO DEVELOPING WAA REGIME AHEAD OF
UPPER PLAINS/MIDWEST FNTL SYS. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID AND UPR LVL CLOUD BAND SUGGESTS SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY.
AFTN TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE FAR WRN
ZONES WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT SSWLY WINDS/WAA WILL BE. THIS
AREA HAS ALSO STAYED SEVERAL DEGS WARMER (OVERNIGHT) GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ABOUT A 5-8DEG HEAD START
DIURNALLY...WHEN COMPARED TO ERN AREAS WHICH HAVE COOLED SEVERAL
DEGS LOWER UNDER A MAINLY CLR SKY. FURTHER EAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE MID 50S WHICH IS ABOUT AN EVEN DOUBLE OF CURRENT
/RATHER CHILLY/ READINGS IN THE MID 20S. OVERALL...A COLD START
BUT A NICE REBOUND IN AFTN TEMPS TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
/EVEN SEVERAL DEGS ABV NORMAL IN THE SOUTH/WEST ZNS/ FOR THE FIRST
SATURDAY OF NOVEMBER...NOT TO MENTION THE FIRST DRY
SATURDAY/WEEKEND FOR SOME TIME.
THE WEAK MIDWEST FNTL SYS WILL PUSH SEWD FM THE LWR GRT LKS TNT
BCMG NEARLY STNRY NEAR THE PA/MD BORDER WWD BACK INTO THE OH VLY.
MAIN CHALLENGE OVRNGT WILL BE CLOUDS AS GUID SUGGESTS SOME
SHALLOW MSTR WILL BE TRAPPED BENEATH THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
(INVERSION) IN THE WAKE OF THE DIFFUSE FNTL PASSAGE. BUFKIT
PROFILES/SNDGS SHOW THIS QUITE WELL...WITH ANY PCPN TAKING THE
FORM OF A VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR SPIT OF DRIZZLE IF THAT...AS
SATURATION IS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW KFT AGL. CLD COVER COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR MINS AS AREAS THAT REMAIN CLR FOR ANY EXTNDD PD
OF TIME WILL SEE TEMPS DROP OFF QUICKLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE THE GEFS AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PATCHY OF THIN
ALTO CU AND CIRRUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS WILL BE A HEFTY 10 DEG OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
SFC/UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MINS EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45F WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER BALMY MID AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. THE LONE
ELEMENT THAT COULD TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F WILL BE A POTENTIAL
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ADVECTING NE THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TS IDA (AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER JETLET). ALL MODELS (NAM/GFS/EC) AND
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUES/TUES NIGHT (CHANGING TO
ISOLATED SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS) AS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN THE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SLIP SEWD TWD THE
SRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND...AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY. XPC MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOWER POST-FNTL CIGS PSBL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
ESP ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS /BFD-JST/. INC SSWLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL BLYR
MIXING AND RESULT IN OCNL 15-20KT GUSTS. MORNG CLDS WILL BE SCT-
BKN BTWN 10-25KFT...INDICATIVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATM. THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WILL LIFT
NWD AS A WARM FNT SUN NGT INTO MONDAY. BY MID WEEK...ANOTHER COLD
FNTL BNDRY APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL TRY
TO INTERACT WITH REMNANT MSTR STREAMING NWD FROM THE GOMEX ASSOC
TC IDA...WHICH MAY BRING PDS OF LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS TUE/WED IN
SHWRS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...BCMG MVFR/IFR IN SHWRS ASSOC WITH FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KCTP 070805
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
305 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND CENTER ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH DURING MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE PRODUCING THE CLEAR SKIES/LGT WIND AND DRY AIRMASS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING. BAND OF
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE OVR THE MIDWEST NOT LIKELY
TO REACH CENTRAL PA UNTIL ARND DAWN. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S
IN THE COLDEST POCKETS ATTM...AND EARLY MORNING HOURLY
READINGS/MINS WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEG F (MAINLY OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST.
WARMEST LOCATIONS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND URBAN AREAS OF THE
LOWER SUSQ SHOULD GET DOWN TO ARND 30F. ALTHOUGH NOT PICKED UP BY
MOS...CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEP
RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80...BASED ON COLD TEMPS/CALM WIND
AND RELATIVELY WARM WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT ON SATURDAY...AS PATCH OF THIN
CIRRUS OVR MIDWEST IS LIKELY TO PASS OVR OUR AREA BTWN 12Z-18Z.
RETURN SW FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW
MUCH MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTER THE CHILLY START...AFTN
READINGS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE E AND SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE W. BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS AFTN WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 20KTS OVR THE NW MTNS.
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH
MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MINS ARND 40F. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP EXPECTED...AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND LG SCALE FORCING
WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT OVR THE N MTNS.
ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND OLD
FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING A MSUNNY AND WARM
AFTN ACROSS PA. NAEFS DATA SUPPORTS HIGHS CLOSE TO 10F ABV NORMAL
WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GENERAL...LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
THAT MOVES OUT ON MONDAY IS SOON REPLACED BY A SECOND SFC HIGH
FORMING ALONG UPPER CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS ONLY
REAL THREATS OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE WITH WEAK FROPA ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS TRENDING TOWARDS DOWNPLAYING THIS
THREAT...AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER WEAK FROPA
ON FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...SUGGESTING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IDA IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
MODELS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
AS SHE MOVES INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS OF IDA TO EFFECT THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE SFC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND IF THIS CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION BEFORE IDA MAKES LANDFALL.
IF THIS OCCURS AS THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS...THEN ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH IDA WILL BE KEPT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THIS SOLUTION SEEMS
THE MOST LIKELY AT THIS POINT...IF THE RIDGE IS SLOW TO
DEVELOP/ IDA IS QUICK TO MAKE LANDFALL...THEN...AT THE VERY
LEAST...IT COULD DRASTICALLY ALTER THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EWD OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
XPC MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOWER POST-FNTL CIGS PSBL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
ESP ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS /BFD-JST/. INC SSWLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
BLYR MIXING AND RESULT IN OCNL 15-20KT GUSTS. CLDS WILL GNRLY BE
SCT-BKN BTWN 10-25KFT...INDICATIVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATM. A WARM FNT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. BY MID WEEK...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FNTL BNDRY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL TRY TO INTERACT
WITH REMNANT MSTR STREAMING NWD FROM THE GOMEX ASSOC TC
IDA...WHICH MAY BRING PDS OF LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS TUE/WED IN
SHWRS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MVFR/IFR IN SHWRS ASSOC WITH FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ONDREJIK/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...ONDREJIK/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/DICKEY
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
000
FXUS61 KPHI 070758
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TODAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST LATE TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS THEN ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE TEMPERATURES ARE DOWN INTO THE TWENTIES THIS MORNING BUT THE GROWING
SEASON ENDED TWO DAYS AGO ACROSS OUR CWA. THE MORNING CHILL IN THE AIR
WILL TURN INTO A NICE SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING BY TONIGHT WITH
A FEW CLOUDS WELL NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT ABOUT 5 OR 6 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CAN`T HELP BUT NOTICE THE HUGE OUTFLOW FROM T.S. IDA WHICH IS TAKING
UP THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MOISTURE FROM T.S. IDA AND THE APPROACHING FRONT
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT WILL NOT REACH US LATE THIS
PERIOD. SUNDAY AND MONDAY`S HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST MODELS KEEP THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THEN
SWEEP IT OFFSHORE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE GEM ON THE OTHER
HAND SHOWS A LOW FORMING IN THE TENNESSEE WITH THE MOISTURE FROM
THE T.S. MOVING NORTHEAST.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT IT STARTS OUT RELATIVELY BENIGN. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE EARLY ON AND A DRY FCST
IS IN STORE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN, THINGS GET MORE MUDDLED.
A SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACRS ERN CANADA ON TUESDAY BRINGING A CDFNT
THROUGH THE MID-ATLC. THE MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THAT
OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER, THEN THE DIFFS SET IN. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH
WHAT IS CURRENTLY TD IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SERN CONUS.
HOW THIS INTERACTS WITH THE CDFNT AND WHERE IT MOVES IS THE MAJOR
QUESTION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A VERY STRONG HIGH PRES SYS
OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS HIGH HELPS
SUPPRESS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE TO THE S OF OUR REGION. THE GFS
IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS SO AND IS ALSO
STRONGER WITH THE H5 TROF BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY
BE A PLAYER AS WELL. THE CMC IS LESS HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND THE MOISTURE, WHICH BRINGS THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE UP
OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES. THE CMC IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER, BUT IT
HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN THE EXTENDD PORTION OF THE FCST OF LATE.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS MOISTURE AND FRONT, ALL MDL
INDICATE THAT BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND DRY WX. DUE TO ALL THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS POTENTIAL EVENT, WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHNGS TO THE
FCST. ATTM, WILL FOLLOW GUID TEMPS AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME THIN CI
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME S 5 TO 10 KT TODAY AND
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
&&
.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND
SMALL SEAS TO OUR WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS AND/OR SEAS COULD
APPROACH OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE HIGH REACHES OUR AREA AND BRINGS A RETURN
TO MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 070701
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
201 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK WAVES
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PIT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP...RESULTING IN A NICE
WARMUP FROM THIS MORNINGS COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. FOR TNGT...A FEW CLOUDS AND A MILDER AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-70 REACHING THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT KEEPING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MID
CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM PROGGED
TO CLIP THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A MINOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...DURING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. VFR
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCTP 070622
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
122 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND CENTER ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH DURING MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM THIS MORNING/...
SFC RIDGE PRODUCING THE CLEAR SKIES/LGT WIND AND DRY AIRMASS
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. BAND OF CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE OVR THE MIDWEST NOT LIKELY TO REACH
CENTRAL PA UNTIL ARND DAWN. TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO THE U20S IN THE
COLDEST FROST POCKETS...WHERE READINGS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE
L20S LATER TONIGHT. WARMEST LOCATIONS OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND
URBAN AREAS OF THE LOWER SUSQ SHOULD GET DOWN TO ARND 30F.
ALTHOUGH NOT PICKED UP BY MOS...CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY
FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80...BASED ON COLD
TEMPS/CALM WIND AND RELATIVELY WARM WATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /3 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT ON SATURDAY...AS PATCH OF THIN
CIRRUS OVR MIDWEST IS LIKELY TO PASS OVR OUR AREA BTWN 12Z-18Z.
RETURN SW FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW
MUCH MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA. AFTER THE CHILLY START...AFTN
READINGS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE E AND SEVERAL DEG
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE W. BUFKIT DATA SUGGESTS AFTN WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 20KTS OVR THE NW MTNS.
A DYING COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH
MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MINS ARND 40F. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP EXPECTED...AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND LG SCALE FORCING
WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF PA. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE PRESENT OVR THE N MTNS.
ANY LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT LATER SUNDAY MORNING AND OLD
FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...LEAVING A MSUNNY AND WARM
AFTN ACROSS PA. NAEFS DATA SUPPORTS HIGHS CLOSE TO 10F ABV NORMAL
WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN GENERAL...LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
THAT MOVES OUT ON MONDAY IS SOON REPLACED BY A SECOND SFC HIGH
FORMING ALONG UPPER CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS ONLY
REAL THREATS OF RAIN APPEAR TO BE WITH WEAK FROPA ON
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GFS TRENDING TOWARDS DOWNPLAYING THIS
THREAT...AND THEN AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER WEAK FROPA
ON FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...SUGGESTING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IDA IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
MODELS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN
AS SHE MOVES INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINING FACTOR IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMNANTS OF IDA TO EFFECT THE CWA WILL DEPEND ON
HOW QUICKLY THE SFC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND IF THIS CAN MOVE INTO THE REGION BEFORE IDA MAKES LANDFALL.
IF THIS OCCURS AS THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS...THEN ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH IDA WILL BE KEPT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THIS SOLUTION SEEMS
THE MOST LIKELY AT THIS POINT...IF THE RIDGE IS SLOW TO
DEVELOP/ IDA IS QUICK TO MAKE LANDFALL...THEN...AT THE VERY
LEAST...IT COULD DRASTICALLY ALTER THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EWD OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY.
XPC MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS...WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOWER POST-FNTL CIGS PSBL VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
ESP ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS /BFD-JST/. INC SSWLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTN COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL
BLYR MIXING AND RESULT IN OCNL 15-20KT GUSTS. CLDS WILL GNRLY BE
SCT-BKN BTWN 10-25KFT...INDICATIVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATM. A WARM FNT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. BY MID WEEK...ANOTHER WEAK COLD FNTL BNDRY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL TRY TO INTERACT
WITH REMNANT MSTR STREAMING NWD FROM THE GOMEX ASSOC TC
IDA...WHICH MAY BRING PDS OF LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS TUE/WED IN
SHWRS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...MVFR/IFR IN SHWRS ASSOC WITH FROPA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ONDREJIK/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...ONDREJIK/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/DICKEY
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
|
