000
FXUS61 KBOX 082026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
326 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT S OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH SW FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
STORM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THIS HIGH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.  LOW
TEMPS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE GREATEST.  MAV GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL SO USED A 2:1
BLEND OF MAV AND MILDER MET TO DERIVE MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...ANOTHER SPECTACULAR NOVEMBER DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.  THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.  DEVELOPING SW
FLOW WILL ADVECT EVEN MILDER AIRMASS INTO SNE.  DEPTH OF MIXING
LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT 950 MB TEMPS REACH +15 TO +16C WHICH
SUPPORT TEMPS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IT WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST SW LLJ DEVELOPS.

FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE LATE.  AS WAS THE CASE
WITH LAST NIGHTS FRONT...MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS WILL BE A DRY
FROPA BUT RH TIME SECTIONS DO INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST LARGELY BASED ON HPC GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF. THE 12Z GFS WAS DISREGARDED FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE AS IT IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER.

OVERALL...FOR NOW...THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET WITH TEMPS AVERAGING NORMAL
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE DAYTIME...ALONG WITH WITH
CHILLY NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR TUESDAY...WE ARE LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH MAXES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES MAY CLOUD UP
FOR A TIME WITH COLD FRONT...BUT WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED...NORTHERLY BREEZE COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
COOL CANADIAN AIR GETS USHERED INTO SNE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SUNNY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WHICH MEANS PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE ON IDA IN THE GULF AND HOW IT MAY INTERACT
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FOR MIDWEEK...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS BE LESS OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER AS IT REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR SKC. ISOLATED GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR...HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT.  INCREASING SW FLOW MON INTO MON
NIGHT.  DEVELOPING SW LLJ 35-40 KT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS LATE MON AND MON EVENING...MAINLY TO EAST COASTAL MA
WATERS.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LIMIT GUSTS
JUST BELOW 25 KT.  NO SCA.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS DOWNWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS IT LOOKS
LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THAN
WHATEVER HAPPENS WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
THAT IT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. WE CANNOT RULE
OUT THE SCENARIO CHANGING...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROB OCCURRENCE
AT THIS TIME. KEPT WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE WINDIEST PERIOD WED INTO EARLY THURS. CUT WAY BACK ON WNA
GUIDANCE. IF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS CONTINUE WITHOUT MUCH
WAVERING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF OF IT/S
BULLISH SOLUTION...THEN WINDS AND SEAS MAY NEED TO BE CUT BACK EVEN
FURTHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
207 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT S OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH SW FLOW OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THIS HIGH WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND
BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.  LOW
TEMPS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE GREATEST.  MAV GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL SO USED A 2:1
BLEND OF MAV AND MILDER MET TO DERIVE MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...ANOTHER SPECTACULAR NOVEMBER DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.  THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE.  DEVELOPING SW
FLOW WILL ADVECT EVEN MILDER AIRMASS INTO SNE.  DEPTH OF MIXING
LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW BUT 950 MB TEMPS REACH +15 TO +16C WHICH
SUPPORT TEMPS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST AND
HIGHER TERRAIN.  IT WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST SW LLJ DEVELOPS.

FORECAST TEMPS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SNE LATE.  AS WAS THE CASE
WITH LAST NIGHTS FRONT...MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS WILL BE A DRY
FROPA BUT RH TIME SECTIONS DO INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF ENERGY FROM
IDA MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. THE GGEM IS THE SLOWEST OF THIS CAMP TO DO SO...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE QUICKEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY 2
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING IT. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY TO NOT BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE END OF
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR SKC. ISOLATED GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR...HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT.  INCREASING SW FLOW MON INTO MON
NIGHT.  DEVELOPING SW LLJ 35-40 KT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS LATE MON AND MON EVENING...MAINLY TO EAST COASTAL MA
WATERS.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PROBABLY LIMIT GUSTS
JUST BELOW 25 KT.  NO SCA.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF NOW HURRICANE IDA. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. CANNOT YET IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE TRENDED WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK
MARINE...KJC/BELK
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081505
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS.
WEAK FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. 2M TEMPS
SUGGEST TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...MILDEST CT AND INTERIOR
RI/E MA. LLJ MOVES OFFSHORE SO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS OVER
CAPE/ISLANDS AND SHIFT TO W/NW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS.

MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED
TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF ENERGY FROM
IDA MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. THE GGEM IS THE SLOWEST OF THIS CAMP TO DO SO...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE QUICKEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY 2
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING IT. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY TO NOT BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE END OF
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
INLAND.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR 5 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF BID-MVY. A FEW G25 KT ACK SOUND AND
ADJACENT E WATERS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ MOVES
OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
NOW HURRICANE IDA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND STRONGER
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CANNOT YET IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY...
SO HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
     FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/BELK/STRAUSS
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KBOX 081227
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
727 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AROUND
DAYBREAK. A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WAS
TRANSPORTING MILDER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. OVERALL THERE WILL BE
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE TODAY FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
YESTERDAYS. H925 TEMPS AROUND +10 CELSIUS WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT LEVEL SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS.

MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED
TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF ENERGY FROM
IDA MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. THE GGEM IS THE SLOWEST OF THIS CAMP TO DO SO...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE QUICKEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY 2
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING IT. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY TO NOT BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE END OF
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
INLAND.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
NOW HURRICANE IDA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND STRONGER
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CANNOT YET IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY...
SO HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
     FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS/BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/BELK
MARINE...STRAUSS/BELK
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 080934
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
434 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NEW YORK STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS TRANSPORTING
MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WERE CROSSING THE AREA DUE TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING BUT
OVERALL THERE WILL BE LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE TODAY FROM JUST PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
YESTERDAYS. H925 TEMPS AROUND +10 CELSIUS WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT LEVEL SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS.

MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED
TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z
GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF ENERGY FROM
IDA MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT
STORM. THE GGEM IS THE SLOWEST OF THIS CAMP TO DO SO...WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS THE QUICKEST.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY 2
MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING IT. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS
FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY TO NOT BE A
MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE END OF
THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. LEFTOVER BKN ALTOCUMULUS AROUND 8000 FT THROUGH 12Z.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
INLAND.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN STORM
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
NOW HURRICANE IDA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND STRONGER
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CANNOT YET IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY...
SO HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY
     FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STRAUSS/BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/BELK
MARINE...STRAUSS/BELK
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 080852
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER
WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER
LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NEW YORK STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS TRANSPORTING
MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WERE CROSSING THE AREA DUE TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING BUT
OVERALL THERE WILL BE LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE TODAY FROM JUST PRIOR
TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES MILDER THAN
YESTERDAYS. H925 TEMPS AROUND +10 CELSIUS WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT LEVEL SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE
60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN
CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS.

MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED
TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF.

IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A COUPLE
OF FANTASTIC NOVEMBER DAYS FEATURING DRY MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE A LITTLE BIT UNSURE OF THE EXACT
TIMING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS NEAR 70
IN A LOT OF PLACES TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. I WOULDN/T BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD-
FREE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT DOESN/T COME THROUGH
AS FAST AS THE NAM IS SHOWING.

WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
FROM NW-SE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF AS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE
OVERAMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND THEN MERGES
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WITH THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
FOR THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTS IN A MONSTER COASTAL STORM
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND BLINDING SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS BEING
DISCOUNTED.

INSTEAD...WE GO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME. A BRIEF COLD SHOT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN FOR THE THE OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WE ARE PLAYING THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED-SAT
PERIOD.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE MIDWEEK FORECAST...AS MORE
AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN A MORE INTERESTING
SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE GOING...BUT NOT LIKELY TO THE
EXTREME AS THE 12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...VFR. LEFTOVER BKN ALTOCUMULUS AROUND 8000 FT THROUGH 12Z.

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
INLAND.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH.

TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED
25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4
FT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY SCA
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORESEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH A CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN SUBSIDE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE

BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...EKSTER/STRAUSS
CLIMATE...STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 080227
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
927 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS WERE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR
MINIMUMS OR WILL BE SHORTLY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND WINDS
INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISC...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA
WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT THROUGH SNE LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
SO THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA WITH MAIN EFFECT TO BRING A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING SE US MID LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  IT
WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND WHICH
BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.  TEMPS
WERE A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF.

IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A COUPLE
OF FANTASTIC NOVEMBER DAYS FEATURING DRY MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE A LITTLE BIT UNSURE OF THE EXACT
TIMING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS NEAR 70
IN A LOT OF PLACES TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. I WOULDN/T BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD-
FREE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT DOESN/T COME THROUGH
AS FAST AS THE NAM IS SHOWING.

WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
FROM NW-SE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF AS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE
OVERAMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND THEN MERGES
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WITH THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
FOR THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTS IN A MONSTER COASTAL STORM
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND BLINDING SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS BEING
DISCOUNTED.

INSTEAD...WE GO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME. A BRIEF COLD SHOT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN FOR THE THE OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WE ARE PLAYING THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED-SAT
PERIOD.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE MIDWEEK FORECAST...AS MORE
AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN A MORE INTERESTING
SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE GOING...BUT NOT LIKELY TO THE
EXTREME AS THE 12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LOW PROB OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR FOG CT VLY. LOW PROB LLWS COASTAL
TERMINALS AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND CAPE COD BAY.

A PERIOD OF G25 KT LIKELY AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN BUT
SHOULD SEE A FEW G25 KT. WE TRIMMED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO NORMAL
HIGH BIAS IN SW FLOW EVENTS.

SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT.
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY SCA
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORESEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH A CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN SUBSIDE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/BELK
NEAR TERM...KJC/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 072053
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH SNE LATE TONIGHT.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS
WILL BE A DRY FROPA WITH MAIN EFFECT TO BRING A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED...WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING SE US MID LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  IT
WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND WHICH
BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.  TEMPS
WERE A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED
FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF.

IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A COUPLE
OF FANTASTIC NOVEMBER DAYS FEATURING DRY MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE A LITTLE BIT UNSURE OF THE EXACT
TIMING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIT AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS NEAR 70
IN A LOT OF PLACES TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. I WOULDN/T BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD-
FREE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT DOESN/T COME THROUGH
AS FAST AS THE NAM IS SHOWING.

WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT
FROM NW-SE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WE PREFERRED THE
ECMWF AS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE
OVERAMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND THEN MERGES
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WITH THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
FOR THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTS IN A MONSTER COASTAL STORM
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND BLINDING SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS BEING
DISCOUNTED.

INSTEAD...WE GO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME. A BRIEF COLD SHOT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN FOR THE THE OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WE ARE PLAYING THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED-SAT
PERIOD.

WE WILL STILL KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE MIDWEEK FORECAST...AS MORE
AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN A MORE INTERESTING
SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE GOING...BUT NOT LIKELY TO THE
EXTREME AS THE 12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR.  LOW PROB OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR FOG CT VLY.  LOW PROB
LLWS COASTAL TERMINALS AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE ISSUED SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXCEPT BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND CAPE COD BAY.  A PERIOD OF G25 KT
LIKELY AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.  LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN BUT SHOULD
SEE A FEW G25 KT.  WE TRIMMED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO NORMAL HIGH
BIAS IN SW FLOW EVENTS.

SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT.
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY SCA
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORESEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED WITH A CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS
THEN SUBSIDE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ232>235-237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/MLE
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER

000
FXUS61 KBOX 071936
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ALONG THIS COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING EAST ACROSS SE CANADA WILL SEND A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH SNE LATE TONIGHT.  MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO THIS
WILL BE A DRY FROPA WITH MAIN EFFECT TO BRING A PERIOD OF MID
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.  MAV TEMPS ACCEPTED...WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SNE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING SE US MID LEVEL
RIDGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  IT
WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY SUNDAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  USED A MAV/MET BLEND WHICH
BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.  TEMPS
WERE A MAV/MET BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE.

PROBLEMS START TO ARISE AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND GGEM SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION HAS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING...WILL STAY THE COURSE. THE REMNANTS OF
IDA MAY BE A FACTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF BKN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR.  LOW PROB OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR FOG CT VLY.  LOW PROB
LLWS COASTAL TERMINALS AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING WED...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE ISSUED SCA FOR MOST WATERS EXCEPT BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND CAPE COD BAY.  A PERIOD OF G25 KT
LIKELY AS 35-40 KT LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.  LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN BUT SHOULD
SEE A FEW G25 KT.  WE TRIMMED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO NORMAL HIGH
BIAS IN SW FLOW EVENTS.

SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 15 KT.
LINGERING 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE OVER OUTER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE
ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
      FOR ANZ232>235-237-250-251-254>256.


&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/BELK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK
MARINE...KJC/BELK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 071518
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...
POSSIBLY YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE IN DEVELOPING WAA
PATTERN...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY. SW FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS
SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST. TEMPS MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE.

PROBLEMS START TO ARISE AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND GGEM SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION HAS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING...WILL STAY THE COURSE. THE REMNANTS OF
IDA MAY BE A FACTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AS A SW
40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORNING DRY COLD FROPA WITH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING WED...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LATEST BUOYS STILL SHOW 5-7 FT SEAS OVER WATERS EAST AND SE
OF ACK. WNA/SWAN INDICATE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON
SO WE WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE. WINDS BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY LATE IN THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER NEARSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...A 35-45 KT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENT VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET IN SPOTS. SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS.

SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A LEFTOVER
SCA FOR 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCA 5 FT SEAS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. THEN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...KJC/STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/STRAUSS
MARINE...KJC/BELK/STRAUSS

000
FXUS61 KBOX 071207
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...
POSSIBLY YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WAS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS NOW WELL EAST OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE.

PROBLEMS START TO ARISE AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND GGEM SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION HAS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING...WILL STAY THE COURSE. THE REMNANTS OF
IDA MAY BE A FACTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AS A SW
40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORNING DRY COLD FROPA WITH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING WED...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE EASTERN WATERS FOR
SEAS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...A 35-45 KT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENT VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET IN SPOTS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MARGINAL SCA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW SO THE DAY SHIFT CAN RE-ASSESS AND SINCE
THERE ARE STILL LEFTOVER HEADLINES FOR ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THE
MARITIME LOW.

SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A LEFTOVER
SCA FOR 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCA 5 FT SEAS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. THEN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/BELK
MARINE...STRAUSS/BELK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 070910
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ALONG THIS COLD FRONT...
POSSIBLY YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WAS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISPERSE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL FILTER
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH BY DAYBREAK. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED CLOUDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP OFF THE COAST IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED
BY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 60 TO 65 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE.

PROBLEMS START TO ARISE AMONGST THE 00Z MODELS WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND GGEM SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION HAS THIS COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TIMING...WILL STAY THE COURSE. THE REMNANTS OF
IDA MAY BE A FACTOR AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...BUT GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WOULD PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW.

LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD ONTO THE IDEA OF A DRY FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC...BUT THE TIMING OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD
CHANGE THIS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO START NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...VFR.

TONIGHT...VFR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AROUND 06Z AS A SW
40 KT LLJ CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORNING DRY COLD FROPA WITH SHIFTING WINDS TO NW.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPING WED...WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE EASTERN WATERS FOR
SEAS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 5 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...A 35-45 KT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENT VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FEET IN SPOTS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE A MARGINAL SCA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW SO THE DAY SHIFT CAN RE-ASSESS AND SINCE
THERE ARE STILL LEFTOVER HEADLINES FOR ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY THE
MARITIME LOW.

SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A LEFTOVER
SCA FOR 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCA 5 FT SEAS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. THEN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ254-
     255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...STRAUSS/BELK
MARINE...STRAUSS/BELK

000
FXUS61 KBOX 070403
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1103 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING MILD WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.  A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ON THIS COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUICKLY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WORCESTER COUNTY AND NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT
WHERE SKIES ARE ALMOST CLOUD FREE AND WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE NECESSARY
AT THIS TIME

PREVIOUS DISC...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROMOTE TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND SET THE STAGE FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR BID/NEWPORT AND
BRISTOL COUNTIES OF RI. IN MA THIS WILL INCLUDE NANTUCKET AND THE
OUTER CAPE. THESE ARE THE ONLY LOCATIONS IN THE AREA THAT HAVE NOT
YET EXPERIENCED A KILLING FROST OR FREEZE. ELSEWHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
NICE DAY SHAPING UP WITH RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS. THUS LOTS OF
SUNSHINE /OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS/. AFTER A CHILLY/FROSTY START TEMPS
WILL REBOUND AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE PROMOTING SOUTHWEST WIND
GRADIENT AND EVENTUAL WARMING OF THE COLUMN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MILDER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT DURING THE
EVENING WITH TEMPS RISING THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEW POINTS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.  MODELS SUGGESTING SOME
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF AND ALSO
WEAK FRONTAL SCALE FORCING WITH THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED SO PRECIP IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH MOISTURE OR LIFT SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LATER SUNDAY THEN THROUGH
MONDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES ON WEATHER FEATURES. GFS ONLY SHOWS A WEAK
UPPER TROF DEVELOPMENT WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
FOR TUE. ECMWF IS FAR MORE ROBUST WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN A SLOWER PROGRESSION...AND AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT DRAWING SOME MOISTURE FROM IDA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. GEM ALSO SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BUT SURFACE FEATURES
DIFFER. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE OPTED
TO GO PRIMARILY WITH CONTINUITY /PREV FCST/ THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THIS INCLUDES CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN TUE THRU WED.  12Z ECMWF COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW MAYBE WED NIGHT BUT WOULD VERY MUCH LIKE TO SEE
SOME CLOSER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE MOVING IN A DIRECTION OTHER THAN
PREV FCST.

AT THIS TIME CONTINUING DRY FORECAST FOR THU AND FRI...AGAIN MODELS
VARY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 050 DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. SW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT LIKELY.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH SUN THRU MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT ON WED WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
NNW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN MA WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SEAS WILL
REMAIN LARGE AND STEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY A FEW HOURS MOST AREAS AS
FAIRLY STEEP WAVES GENERATED BY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN WATERS. BUOY 013
RECENTLY REPORTED 7 FOOT SEAS. THE TREND WILL BE FOR SEAS TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...
QUIET MARINE WEATHER WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD THEN SLIPPING OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY.

SAT NIGHT...
SW WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCA 5 FT SEAS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. THEN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...NOCERA/STRAUSS/JFP/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/STRAUSS/NMB

000
FXUS61 KBOX 070248
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
948 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING MILD WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING MIDWEEK...INTRODUCING COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.  A COASTAL LOW MAY FORM ON THIS COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
YIELDING MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT IS IN PROGRESS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUICKLY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WORCESTER COUNTY AND NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT
WHERE SKIES ARE ALMOST CLOUD FREE AND WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGE NECESSARY
AT THIS TIME

PREVIOUS DISC...
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL
PROMOTE TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND SET THE STAGE FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR BID/NEWPORT AND
BRISTOL COUNTIES OF RI. IN MA THIS WILL INCLUDE NANTUCKET AND THE
OUTER CAPE. THESE ARE THE ONLY LOCATIONS IN THE AREA THAT HAVE NOT
YET EXPERIENCED A KILLING FROST OR FREEZE. ELSEWHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
NICE DAY SHAPING UP WITH RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS. THUS LOTS OF
SUNSHINE /OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS/. AFTER A CHILLY/FROSTY START TEMPS
WILL REBOUND AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE PROMOTING SOUTHWEST WIND
GRADIENT AND EVENTUAL WARMING OF THE COLUMN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MILDER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT DURING THE
EVENING WITH TEMPS RISING THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
CLOUDS...DEW POINTS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS.  MODELS SUGGESTING SOME
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF AND ALSO
WEAK FRONTAL SCALE FORCING WITH THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED SO PRECIP IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT
MUCH MOISTURE OR LIFT SO ONLY SOME CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LATER SUNDAY THEN THROUGH
MONDAY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH AS WELL. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES ON WEATHER FEATURES. GFS ONLY SHOWS A WEAK
UPPER TROF DEVELOPMENT WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
FOR TUE. ECMWF IS FAR MORE ROBUST WITH A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN A SLOWER PROGRESSION...AND AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT DRAWING SOME MOISTURE FROM IDA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. GEM ALSO SHOWS UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BUT SURFACE FEATURES
DIFFER. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE OPTED
TO GO PRIMARILY WITH CONTINUITY /PREV FCST/ THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THIS INCLUDES CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN TUE THRU WED.  12Z ECMWF COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW MAYBE WED NIGHT BUT WOULD VERY MUCH LIKE TO SEE
SOME CLOSER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE MOVING IN A DIRECTION OTHER THAN
PREV FCST.

AT THIS TIME CONTINUING DRY FORECAST FOR THU AND FRI...AGAIN MODELS
VARY BUT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 050 DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. SW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT LIKELY.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR THROUGH SUN THRU MON NIGHT...EXCEPT ISOLATED IFR IN VALLEY FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPMENT ON WED WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...
NNW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN MA WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SEAS WILL
REMAIN LARGE AND STEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS MOST OF THE
NIGHT.

EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY A FEW HOURS MOST AREAS AS
FAIRLY STEEP WAVES GENERATED BY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE EASTERN WATERS. BUOY 013
RECENTLY REPORTED 7 FOOT SEAS. THE TREND WILL BE FOR SEAS TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...
QUIET MARINE WEATHER WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD THEN SLIPPING OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY.

SAT NIGHT...
SW WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SCA 5 FT SEAS AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KTS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. THEN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON WED IF COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MAZ022-024.
NH...NONE.
RI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...NOCERA/STRAUSS/JFP/NMB
MARINE...NOCERA/STRAUSS/NMB