[top]
000
FXUS61 KBOX 242028
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
328 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THROUGH THE MARITIMES TONIGHT WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REDEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVES UP THE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...PASSING CAPE COD FRIDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
MASSACHUSETTS BAY CONTINUES TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD KEEP A MOIST FLOW
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NAM-GEM-ECMWF SUPPORT THIS IDEA BY SHOWING
80%+ RH AT 850 MB AND 85%+ RH AT 925 MB WHILE THE GFS DRIES THIS
LAYER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS WEST OF THE
BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELDS BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER US. SO THE
FORECAST WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF FOG.
CONTINUED GUSTY ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS EVENING BUT WITH THE LOW
MOVING OFF AND WITH WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ALSO
FORECAST TO DIMINISH THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SURFACE WINDS TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN THE GFS MOS
GUIDENCE...WE USED A BLEND THAT FAVORED THE WARMER NAM MOS. MAY STILL
BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COLD IN THE NORTHWEST BUT A GENERAL RANGE OF
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S LOOKS FINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP INVERSION UNDER THE RIDGE WITH A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW
UNDERNEATH. GFS MOS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE CT VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN NH. BUT WHILE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS WITHIN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY...LOWER SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE
MOIST FLOW FAVOR THE MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST. WE WILL GO WITH
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY.
UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE CLOUDS.
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING JET PASS NORTHWEST OF US DURING THE
NIGHT AND COMBINE WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS.
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS NEW YORK AND VT/NH. FOR NOW WE WILL USE
20-24 PERCENT POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE IN
NORTHWEST MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH.
TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF THE NAM MOS AND GEM VALUES. THIS IS COOLER THAN
GFS MOS DURING THE DAY AND NOT AS COLD AS GFS MOS AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DYNAMIC UPPER TROF AND POSSIBLE VIGOROUS AND INTENSIFYING COASTAL
SURFACE LOW PRES FRI...FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY SAT.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLE INVERSION ON THANKSGIVING DAY
SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF INCREASING ALOFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THU NIGHT AND FRI BECOME MORE INTERESTING. CONSENSUS OF ALL MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOWS DEEPENING 500 MB CLOSED LOW PASSING IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALL MODELS ALSO INDICATE
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES
BEING A PRODUCT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...THE TIMING OF THE PHASING CAN HAVE CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. GEM IS THE LEAST IMPRESSIVE BUT STILL FORMS A
CLOSED...ALBEIT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MOST ROBUST WITH A DEEPER AND
FURTHER SOUTH UPPER LOW AND MORE INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THE
ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AND SEEMS TO BE REASONABLY IN CONCERT
WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...BUT WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS. WITH ALL THAT
STATED...HAVE GONE HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CAT POPS FOR LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE NORTHERN ZONES AND
THAT FITS WITH GYX THINKING. TOTAL TOTALS ARE HIGH ON THE GFS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 56. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY IF UPPER LOW CENTER DOES INDEED DEEPEN AS IT
TRACK ACROSS REGION. QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE VARIABLE GIVEN WHAT
ANTICIPATE TO BE SHOWERY NATURE TO PRECIPITATION.
PTYPE IS NOT AN ISSUE UNTIL FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN
DROPPING TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF WET SNOW
MIXED WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SW NH. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXPECT SAT TO BE BLUSTERY AND SHOULD FEEL
NOTICABLY COLDER THAN OTHER DAYS THIS MONTH. NW WIND GUSTS MAY
SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCES IN A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A GALE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN MID/UPPER 40S ON SAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS...AIR MASS BEGINS TO RECOVER FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUN BUT A
CHILLY START AND SHORT DAYLIGHT MAY DAMPEN RECOVERY OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. CONCERNED THOUGH THAT PREDICTED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
BE TOO COOL FOR SUN.
NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE OH
VALLEY MON NIGHT OR TUE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CAT FOR
MON. THIS IS RATHER FAR OUT AND THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS DOES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING KBOS-KBDL-KMHT BUT WILL
LOWER BACK TO IFR TONIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT N FLOW WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. IFR/LIFR EXPECTED KPVD TO KFMH/KHYA/KACK WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF WED...THOUGH KBDL/KBAF
COULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. IFR CIGS ACROSS RI AND SE MA SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR WED AFTERNOON.
KBOS...CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR BUT BELOW 1500 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL CHANCE CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LIFT TO 2000 FT BEFORE 23Z
BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY BASED UPON SATELLITE TRENDS. CIGS 005-010
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE S OF KBOS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THU...MVFR CIGS.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...VFR BUT STRONG SURFACE WINDS G25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT AND
ASSOCIATED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
SUN...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS GUSTING NEAR GALE AT NANTUCKET AIRPORT BUT BUOYS AND OTHER
MARINE SOURCES ARE MAINLY AROUND 30-32 KNOTS. WITH THE GALE CENTER
NOW PULLING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND WITH WINDS AT 2000-4000 FEET
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALSO START
TRENDING TO LOWER VALUES. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25 KNOTS DURING
THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET ON THE SOUNDS DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS 5 FEET OR HIGHER SHOULD
CONTINUE ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALL WATERS WILL START THE FORECAST WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WILL LOSE THE HEADLINE THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH. THE OTHER INNER BAYS AND SOUNDS WILL ALSO
LOSE THE 25 KNOT WINDS BUT MAINTAIN ROUGH SEAS UNTIL SUNRISE...SO
CONTINUE HEADLINES THERE OVERNIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER ON THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE
EXTENDED TO COVER THROUGH THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW THU...INCREASING FROM NE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. HOW STRONG THE
NE WINDS WILL BE DEPENDS UPON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THAT NOW. THERE IS RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...OF A NW GALE DEVELOPING LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ME. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE STORM FORCE GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT DEEPENS OVER THE GULF
OF ME AND MARITIMES. THE WNA GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT
STRAYED FROM IT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 6 TO 10
FEET MOST OF THIS WEEK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. WE
COULD SEE A SURGE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FT BUT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE QUITE LOW.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER/JWD
MARINE...WTB/THOMPSON
000
FXUS61 KBOX 241920
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
220 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE
SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...THEN SPIN AWAY
INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
MASSACHUSETTS BAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING THE
ENVIRONMENT MOIST ALOFT. WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH AREAS OF FOG. AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AS WELL. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
ON TARGET AND WERE NOT CHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COULD NOT BUY INTO THE DRYING OF THE 00Z/24 GFS. SREF POPS AND COMBINED
NAM/RGEM/GGEM/UKMET CUES SUGGEST THAT ANY CLEARING IF IT OCCURS THIS
EVENING WOULD PERMIT QUICK RADIATION FOG/ST FORMING. SO THE FCST
DECISION WAS TO STAY MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS. THAT NARROWS THE
FORECAST DIURNAL TEMPS...INCREASES SFC TDS AND MEANS MORE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF T TO .01 R-/L-.
BASICALLY NOT A LOT OF CLEARING FCST...THO ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
WILL BE MORE THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE NEW UPCOMING 4 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND DEPARTURE FROM MOS IS AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DYNAMIC UPPER TROF AND POSSIBLE VIGOROUS AND INTENSIFYING COASTAL
SURFACE LOW PRES FRI...FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY SAT.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLE INVERSION ON THANKSGIVING DAY
SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF INCREASING ALOFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THU NIGHT AND FRI BECOME MORE INTERESTING. CONSENSUS OF ALL MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOWS DEEPENING 500 MB CLOSED LOW PASSING IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALL MODELS ALSO INDICATE
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES
BEING A PRODUCT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...THE TIMING OF THE PHASING CAN HAVE CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. GEM IS THE LEAST IMPRESSIVE BUT STILL FORMS A
CLOSED...ALBEIT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MOST ROBUST WITH A DEEPER AND
FURTHER SOUTH UPPER LOW AND MORE INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THE
ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AND SEEMS TO BE REASONABLY IN CONCERT
WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...BUT WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS. WITH ALL THAT
STATED...HAVE GONE HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CAT POPS FOR LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE NORTHERN ZONES AND
THAT FITS WITH GYX THINKING. TOTAL TOTALS ARE HIGH ON THE GFS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 56. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY IF UPPER LOW CENTER DOES INDEED DEEPEN AS IT
TRACK ACROSS REGION. QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE VARIABLE GIVEN WHAT
ANTICIPATE TO BE SHOWERY NATURE TO PRECIPITATION.
PTYPE IS NOT AN ISSUE UNTIL FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN
DROPPING TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF WET SNOW
MIXED WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SW NH. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXPECT SAT TO BE BLUSTERY AND SHOULD FEEL
NOTICABLY COLDER THAN OTHER DAYS THIS MONTH. NW WIND GUSTS MAY
SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCES IN A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A GALE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN MID/UPPER 40S ON SAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS...AIR MASS BEGINS TO RECOVER FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUN BUT A
CHILLY START AND SHORT DAYLIGHT MAY DAMPEN RECOVERY OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. CONCERNED THOUGH THAT PREDICTED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
BE TOO COOL FOR SUN.
NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE OH
VALLEY MON NIGHT OR TUE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CAT FOR
MON. THIS IS RATHER FAR OUT AND THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS DOES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING KBOS-KBDL-KMHT BUT WILL
LOWER BACK TO IFR TONIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT N FLOW WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. IFR/LIFR EXPECTED KPVD TO KFMH/KHYA/KACK WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS.
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF WED...THOUGH KBDL/KBAF
COULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. IFR CIGS ACROSS RI AND SE MA SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR WED AFTERNOON.
KBOS...CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR BUT BELOW 1500 FT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL CHANCE CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LIFT TO 2000 FT BEFORE 23Z
BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY BASED UPON SATELLITE TRENDS. CIGS 005-010
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE S OF KBOS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THU...MVFR CIGS.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...VFR BUT STRONG SURFACE WINDS G25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT AND
ASSOCIATED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED AT 2 PM TO REMOVE GALES FROM THE REMAINING WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 5 PM AND FOR ALL BUT
BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRA BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE GALE
CENTER IS AT ITS CLOSEST POINT AND WILL NOW MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THE
REMANIDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OBSERVED WINDS AT THE BUOYS
ARE 25-30 KNOTS...32 KNOTS AT HORSESHOE SHOAL.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW THU...INCREASING FROM NE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. HOW STRONG THE
NE WINDS WILL BE DEPENDS UPON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THAT NOW. THERE IS RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...OF A NW GALE DEVELOPING LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ME. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE STORM FORCE GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT DEEPENS OVER THE GULF
OF ME AND MARITIMES. THE WNA GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT
STRAYED FROM IT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 6 TO 10
FEET MOST OF THIS WEEK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. WE
COULD SEE A SURGE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FT BUT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE QUITE LOW.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TDWR TBOS CONT OTS.
44020 ACK SOUND BUOY CONT OTS. NDBC MAINTENANCE HAS STATUS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...WTB/EKSTER/JWD
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 241904
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE
SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...THEN SPIN AWAY
INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
MASSACHUSETTS BAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING THE
ENVIRONMENT MOIST ALOFT. WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH AREAS OF FOG. AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AS WELL. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
ON TARGET AND WERE NOT CHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COULD NOT BUY INTO THE DRYING OF THE 00Z/24 GFS. SREF POPS AND COMBINED
NAM/RGEM/GGEM/UKMET CUES SUGGEST THAT ANY CLEARING IF IT OCCURS THIS
EVENING WOULD PERMIT QUICK RADIATION FOG/ST FORMING. SO THE FCST
DECISION WAS TO STAY MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS. THAT NARROWS THE
FORECAST DIURNAL TEMPS...INCREASES SFC TDS AND MEANS MORE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF T TO .01 R-/L-.
BASICALLY NOT A LOT OF CLEARING FCST...THO ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
WILL BE MORE THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE NEW UPCOMING 4 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND DEPARTURE FROM MOS IS AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DYNAMIC UPPER TROF AND POSSIBLE VIGOROUS AND INTENSIFYING COASTAL
SURFACE LOW PRES FRI...FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY SAT.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLE INVERSION ON THANKSGIVING DAY
SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF INCREASING ALOFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THU NIGHT AND FRI BECOME MORE INTERESTING. CONSENSUS OF ALL MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOWS DEEPENING 500 MB CLOSED LOW PASSING IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALL MODELS ALSO INDICATE
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES
BEING A PRODUCT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...THE TIMING OF THE PHASING CAN HAVE CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. GEM IS THE LEAST IMPRESSIVE BUT STILL FORMS A
CLOSED...ALBEIT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MOST ROBUST WITH A DEEPER AND
FURTHER SOUTH UPPER LOW AND MORE INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THE
ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AND SEEMS TO BE REASONABLY IN CONCERT
WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...BUT WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS. WITH ALL THAT
STATED...HAVE GONE HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CAT POPS FOR LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE NORTHERN ZONES AND
THAT FITS WITH GYX THINKING. TOTAL TOTALS ARE HIGH ON THE GFS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 56. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY IF UPPER LOW CENTER DOES INDEED DEEPEN AS IT
TRACK ACROSS REGION. QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE VARIABLE GIVEN WHAT
ANTICIPATE TO BE SHOWERY NATURE TO PRECIPITATION.
PTYPE IS NOT AN ISSUE UNTIL FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN
DROPPING TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF WET SNOW
MIXED WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SW NH. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXPECT SAT TO BE BLUSTERY AND SHOULD FEEL
NOTICABLY COLDER THAN OTHER DAYS THIS MONTH. NW WIND GUSTS MAY
SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCES IN A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A GALE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN MID/UPPER 40S ON SAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS...AIR MASS BEGINS TO RECOVER FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUN BUT A
CHILLY START AND SHORT DAYLIGHT MAY DAMPEN RECOVERY OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. CONCERNED THOUGH THAT PREDICTED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
BE TOO COOL FOR SUN.
NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE OH
VALLEY MON NIGHT OR TUE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CAT FOR
MON. THIS IS RATHER FAR OUT AND THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS DOES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TODAY...IFR CIGS. VSBY OCCASIONALLY 2-5 MI THIS MORNING IN R/DRIZZLE
EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 1/4SM IN FOG KORH EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 6+ THIS AFTN AS CIGS RISE 200 FT FROM CURRENT 08Z OBS.
NE GUSTS 15-20 KTS ALL MASS RI N CT TAF SITES TODAY EXCEPT 25-35KT
HYA FMH AND ACK THRU 20Z TODAY.
PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS. IF IT CLEARS INTERIOR THEN LIFR ST/FOG
WOULD BE DEVELOPING CT RVR VALLEY. WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE
NORTHERLY ALONG THE COAST....GUSTS 20-25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE KACK AND
KHYA EARLY.
WED...LOOKS LIKE MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
COAST. BAF/BDL MIGHT IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THU...MVFR CIGS.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...VFR BUT STRONG SURFACE WINDS G25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT AND
ASSOCIATED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST UPDATED AT 2 PM TO REMOVE GALES FROM THE REMAINING WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 5 PM AND FOR ALL BUT
BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRA BAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE GALE
CENTER IS AT ITS CLOSEST POINT AND WILL NOW MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THE
REMANIDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OBSERVED WINDS AT THE BUOYS
ARE 25-30 KNOTS...32 KNOTS AT HORSESHOE SHOAL.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW THU...INCREASING FROM NE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. HOW STRONG THE
NE WINDS WILL BE DEPENDS UPON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THAT NOW. THERE IS RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...OF A NW GALE DEVELOPING LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ME. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE STORM FORCE GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT DEEPENS OVER THE GULF
OF ME AND MARITIMES. THE WNA GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT
STRAYED FROM IT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 6 TO 10
FEET MOST OF THIS WEEK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. WE
COULD SEE A SURGE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FT BUT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE QUITE LOW.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TDWR TBOS CONT OTS.
44020 ACK SOUND BUOY CONT OTS. NDBC MAINTENANCE HAS STATUS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DRAG/THOMPSON
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 241548
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE
SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...THEN SPIN AWAY
INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
MASSACHUSETTS BAY CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING THE
ENVIRONMENT MOIST ALOFT. WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH AREAS OF FOG. AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL HILLS WILL BE
SUBJECT TO OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AS WELL. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPS LOOK
ON TARGET AND WERE NOT CHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COULD NOT BUY INTO THE DRYING OF THE 00Z/24 GFS. SREF POPS AND COMBINED
NAM/RGEM/GGEM/UKMET CUES SUGGEST THAT ANY CLEARING IF IT OCCURS THIS
EVENING WOULD PERMIT QUICK RADIATION FOG/ST FORMING. SO THE FCST
DECISION WAS TO STAY MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS. THAT NARROWS THE
FORECAST DIURNAL TEMPS...INCREASES SFC TDS AND MEANS MORE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF T TO .01 R-/L-.
BASICALLY NOT A LOT OF CLEARING FCST...THO ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
WILL BE MORE THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE NEW UPCOMING 4 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND DEPARTURE FROM MOS IS AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DYNAMIC UPPER TROF AND POSSIBLE VIGOROUS AND INTENSIFYING COASTAL
SURFACE LOW PRES FRI...FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY SAT.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLE INVERSION ON THANKSGIVING DAY
SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF INCREASING ALOFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THU NIGHT AND FRI BECOME MORE INTERESTING. CONSENSUS OF ALL MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOWS DEEPENING 500 MB CLOSED LOW PASSING IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALL MODELS ALSO INDICATE
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES
BEING A PRODUCT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...THE TIMING OF THE PHASING CAN HAVE CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. GEM IS THE LEAST IMPRESSIVE BUT STILL FORMS A
CLOSED...ALBEIT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MOST ROBUST WITH A DEEPER AND
FURTHER SOUTH UPPER LOW AND MORE INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THE
ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AND SEEMS TO BE REASONABLY IN CONCERT
WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...BUT WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS. WITH ALL THAT
STATED...HAVE GONE HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CAT POPS FOR LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE NORTHERN ZONES AND
THAT FITS WITH GYX THINKING. TOTAL TOTALS ARE HIGH ON THE GFS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 56. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY IF UPPER LOW CENTER DOES INDEED DEEPEN AS IT
TRACK ACROSS REGION. QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE VARIABLE GIVEN WHAT
ANTICIPATE TO BE SHOWERY NATURE TO PRECIPITATION.
PTYPE IS NOT AN ISSUE UNTIL FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN
DROPPING TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF WET SNOW
MIXED WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SW NH. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXPECT SAT TO BE BLUSTERY AND SHOULD FEEL
NOTICABLY COLDER THAN OTHER DAYS THIS MONTH. NW WIND GUSTS MAY
SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCES IN A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A GALE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN MID/UPPER 40S ON SAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS...AIR MASS BEGINS TO RECOVER FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUN BUT A
CHILLY START AND SHORT DAYLIGHT MAY DAMPEN RECOVERY OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. CONCERNED THOUGH THAT PREDICTED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
BE TOO COOL FOR SUN.
NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE OH
VALLEY MON NIGHT OR TUE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CAT FOR
MON. THIS IS RATHER FAR OUT AND THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS DOES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...IFR CIGS. VSBY OCCASIONALLY 2-5 MI THIS MORNING IN R/DRIZZLE
EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 1/4SM IN FOG KORH EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 6+ THIS AFTN AS CIGS RISE 200 FT FROM CURRENT 08Z OBS.
NE GUSTS 15-20 KTS ALL MASS RI N CT TAF SITES TODAY EXCEPT 25-35KT
HYA FMH AND ACK THRU 20Z TODAY.
PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS. IF IT CLEARS INTERIOR THEN LIFR ST/FOG
WOULD BE DEVELOPING CT RVR VALLEY. WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE
NORTHERLY ALONG THE COAST....GUSTS 20-25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE KACK AND
KHYA EARLY.
WED...LOOKS LIKE MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
COAST. BAF/BDL MIGHT IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THU...MVFR CIGS.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...VFR BUT STRONG SURFACE WINDS G25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT AND
ASSOCIATED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
TRIMMED THE GALE TO NR AND SE OF KACK BASED ON 00Z/24 GFS BUFKIT
OUTPUT. SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY WED OUTER WATERS.
NE SCA TODAY WITH SPOTTY GALE NR AND SE OF KACK THIS MORNING.
10 TO 13 FT OPEN WATERS SEAS E OF MASSACHUSETTS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE WED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW THU...INCREASING FROM NE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. HOW STRONG THE
NE WINDS WILL BE DEPENDS UPON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THAT NOW. THERE IS RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...OF A NW GALE DEVELOPING LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ME. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE STORM FORCE GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT DEEPENS OVER THE GULF
OF ME AND MARITIMES. THE WNA GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT
STRAYED FROM IT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 6 TO 10
FEET MOST OF THIS WEEK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. WE
COULD SEE A SURGE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FT BUT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE QUITE LOW.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TDWR TBOS CONT OTS.
44020 ACK SOUND BUOY CONT OTS. NDBC MAINTENANCE HAS STATUS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DRAG/THOMPSON
MARINE...DRAG/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240926
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE
SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...THEN SPIN AWAY
INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR STP IS MUCH TOO HIGH BUZZARDS BAY SOUTHWARD...OTRW OK IN SNE.
LEFTOVER LIGHT LOW TOP R/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTN...SHRINKING FROM ITS 3AM COVERAGE TO MOSTLY E MASS BY
FORENOON.
TEMPS ARE THE COLDER NAM/UK/RGEM IDEA VS THE MILDER LESS RESOLVED GFS.
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE A 60/40 BLEND OF 00Z/24 NAM/GFS MOS WINDS.
GUSTS WERE DERIVED FROM THE 00Z/24 BUFKIT. GFS GUSTS FOR 06Z
VERIFIED AS BETTER PREDICTOR INITIALLY.
CLOUD COVER FAVORED THE MORE ROBUST BL RH OF THE NAM WITH RGEM
SKYCOVER SUPPORT. 06Z NAM CONTS TO SUPPORT. LOTS OF LINGERING NE TOP
OF THE BL FLOW.
POPS FCST WAS THE 21Z SREF SUPPORTED BY ITS 03Z/24 VSN AND ALSO THE
RGEM/GGEM/UK SPITTING OUT MEAGER AMTS OF NUISANCE R/DRIZZLE-GENERALLY
UNDER .10 INCHES AFTER 09Z TODAY....NOT THE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SHOWERS
OF THE PAST 12 HOURS WHEN WIDESPREAD .25 TO .75 INCHES OCCURRED S OF THE
MA PIKE.
SURGE GUIDANCE IS MISSING THE HALF A FOOT DEPARTURE AT 3AM BOS/ACK/PVD.
THE TWL PRODUCT WAS UPDATED WITH A NEW STORM TIDE SUM BASED ON SURGE
ADJUSTMENTS THRU ABOUT 20Z TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS AVG OR ABV AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COULD NOT BUY INTO THE DRYING OF THE 00Z/24 GFS. SREF POPS AND COMBINED
NAM/RGEM/GGEM/UKMET CUES SUGGEST THAT ANY CLEARING IF IT OCCURS THIS
EVENING WOULD PERMIT QUICK RADIATION FOG/ST FORMING. SO THE FCST
DECISION WAS TO STAY MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS. THAT NARROWS THE
FORECAST DIURNAL TEMPS...INCREASES SFC TDS AND MEANS MORE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF T TO .01 R-/L-.
BASICALLY NOT A LOT OF CLEARING FCST...THO ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
WILL BE MORE THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE NEW UPCOMING 4 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND DEPARTURE FROM MOS IS AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DYNAMIC UPPER TROF AND POSSIBLE VIGOROUS AND INTENSIFYING COASTAL
SURFACE LOW PRES FRI...FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY SAT.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND PROBABLE INVERSION ON THANKSGIVING DAY
SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS WITH HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGE AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROF INCREASING ALOFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...INCREASING TO CHANCE WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THU NIGHT AND FRI BECOME MORE INTERESTING. CONSENSUS OF ALL MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOWS DEEPENING 500 MB CLOSED LOW PASSING IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALL MODELS ALSO INDICATE
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES
BEING A PRODUCT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE...THE TIMING OF THE PHASING CAN HAVE CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. GEM IS THE LEAST IMPRESSIVE BUT STILL FORMS A
CLOSED...ALBEIT PROGRESSIVE...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE FRI. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MOST ROBUST WITH A DEEPER AND
FURTHER SOUTH UPPER LOW AND MORE INTENSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THE
ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN AND SEEMS TO BE REASONABLY IN CONCERT
WITH GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS...BUT WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE GFS. WITH ALL THAT
STATED...HAVE GONE HIGH LIKELY TO LOW CAT POPS FOR LATE THU NIGHT
AND FRI. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE NORTHERN ZONES AND
THAT FITS WITH GYX THINKING. TOTAL TOTALS ARE HIGH ON THE GFS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PEAKING AROUND 56. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY IF UPPER LOW CENTER DOES INDEED DEEPEN AS IT
TRACK ACROSS REGION. QPF AMOUNTS MAY BE VARIABLE GIVEN WHAT
ANTICIPATE TO BE SHOWERY NATURE TO PRECIPITATION.
PTYPE IS NOT AN ISSUE UNTIL FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING WHEN
DROPPING TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF WET SNOW
MIXED WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW MA AND SW NH. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXPECT SAT TO BE BLUSTERY AND SHOULD FEEL
NOTICABLY COLDER THAN OTHER DAYS THIS MONTH. NW WIND GUSTS MAY
SUPPORT WIND ADVISORY ISSUANCES IN A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A GALE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES IN MID/UPPER 40S ON SAT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS...AIR MASS BEGINS TO RECOVER FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SUN BUT A
CHILLY START AND SHORT DAYLIGHT MAY DAMPEN RECOVERY OF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. CONCERNED THOUGH THAT PREDICTED MAX TEMPERATURES MAY
BE TOO COOL FOR SUN.
NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE OH
VALLEY MON NIGHT OR TUE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CAT FOR
MON. THIS IS RATHER FAR OUT AND THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED SYSTEM THAN THE GFS DOES WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...IFR CIGS. VSBY OCCASIONALLY 2-5 MI THIS MORNING IN R/DRIZZLE
EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 1/4SM IN FOG KORH EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 6+ THIS AFTN AS CIGS RISE 200 FT FROM CURRENT 08Z OBS.
NE GUSTS 15-20 KTS ALL MASS RI N CT TAF SITES TODAY EXCEPT 25-35KT
HYA FMH AND ACK THRU 20Z TODAY.
PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS. IF IT CLEARS INTERIOR THEN LIFR ST/FOG
WOULD BE DEVELOPING CT RVR VALLEY. WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE
NORTHERLY ALONG THE COAST....GUSTS 20-25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE KACK AND
KHYA EARLY.
WED...LOOKS LIKE MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
COAST. BAF/BDL MIGHT IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THU...MVFR CIGS.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING TO VFR BY SAT MORNING.
SAT...VFR BUT STRONG SURFACE WINDS G25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT AND
ASSOCIATED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
TRIMMED THE GALE TO NR AND SE OF KACK BASED ON 00Z/24 GFS BUFKIT
OUTPUT. SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY WED OUTER WATERS.
NE SCA TODAY WITH SPOTTY GALE NR AND SE OF KACK THIS MORNING.
10 TO 13 FT OPEN WATERS SEAS E OF MASSACHUSETTS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE WED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...RELATIVE LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW THU...INCREASING FROM NE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. HOW STRONG THE
NE WINDS WILL BE DEPENDS UPON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THAT NOW. THERE IS RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...OF A NW GALE DEVELOPING LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF ME. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE STORM FORCE GUSTS ON THE BACKSIDE AS IT DEEPENS OVER THE GULF
OF ME AND MARITIMES. THE WNA GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT
STRAYED FROM IT FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 6 TO 10
FEET MOST OF THIS WEEK COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. WE
COULD SEE A SURGE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FT BUT ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE QUITE LOW.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TDWR TBOS CONT OTS.
44020 ACK SOUND BUOY CONT OTS. NDBC MAINTENANCE HAS STATUS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...THOMPSON
AVIATION...DRAG/THOMPSON
MARINE...DRAG/THOMPSON
EQUIPMENT...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240836
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE
SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...THEN SPIN AWAY
INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR STP IS MUCH TOO HIGH BUZZARDS BAY SOUTHWARD...OTRW OK IN SNE.
LEFTOVER LIGHT LOW TOP R/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTN...SHRINKING FROM ITS 3AM COVERAGE TO MOSTLY E MASS BY
FORENOON.
TEMPS ARE THE COLDER NAM/UK/RGEM IDEA VS THE MILDER LESS RESOLVED GFS.
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE A 60/40 BLEND OF 00Z/24 NAM/GFS MOS WINDS.
GUSTS WERE DERIVED FROM THE 00Z/24 BUFKIT. GFS GUSTS FOR 06Z
VERIFIED AS BETTER PREDICTOR INITIALLY.
CLOUD COVER FAVORED THE MORE ROBUST BL RH OF THE NAM WITH RGEM
SKYCOVER SUPPORT. 06Z NAM CONTS TO SUPPORT. LOTS OF LINGERING NE TOP
OF THE BL FLOW.
POPS FCST WAS THE 21Z SREF SUPPORTED BY ITS 03Z/24 VSN AND ALSO THE
RGEM/GGEM/UK SPITTING OUT MEAGER AMTS OF NUISANCE R/DRIZZLE-GENERALLY
UNDER .10 INCHES AFTER 09Z TODAY....NOT THE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SHOWERS
OF THE PAST 12 HOURS WHEN WIDESPREAD .25 TO .75 INCHES OCCURRED S OF THE
MA PIKE.
SURGE GUIDANCE IS MISSING THE HALF A FOOT DEPARTURE AT 3AM BOS/ACK/PVD.
THE TWL PRODUCT WAS UPDATED WITH A NEW STORM TIDE SUM BASED ON SURGE
ADJUSTMENTS THRU ABOUT 20Z TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS AVG OR ABV AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COULD NOT BUY INTO THE DRYING OF THE 00Z/24 GFS. SREF POPS AND COMBINED
NAM/RGEM/GGEM/UKMET CUES SUGGEST THAT ANY CLEARING IF IT OCCURS THIS
EVENING WOULD PERMIT QUICK RADIATION FOG/ST FORMING. SO THE FCST
DECISION WAS TO STAY MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS. THAT NARROWS THE
FORECAST DIURNAL TEMPS...INCREASES SFC TDS AND MEANS MORE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF T TO .01 R-/L-.
BASICALLY NOT A LOT OF CLEARING FCST...THO ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
WILL BE MORE THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE NEW UPCOMING 4 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND DEPARTURE FROM MOS IS AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LEANING MORE TOWARD AN
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 23/12Z MODELS.
THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN FROM THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE. IF WE GET TOO MUCH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTED NORTH...COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF MARINE STRATUS
INSTEAD.
THINKING WEDNESDAY...AND AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY. A LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SO THINKING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RISK FOR RAINFALL
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY POSES ANOTHER PROBLEM...WITH THE GFS
MERGING THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS MERGER RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT TO SAY MUCH MORE THAN THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS NOTED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENERGETIC
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...BUT AT THIS POINT REMAIN A LOW PROBABILITY.
THINKING THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT THE 23/12Z ECMWF HAS A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE
WINDS FOR NOW SINCE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THIS SOLUTION
TO PLAY OUT.
THIS STORM MODELED TO DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT US
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10 FEET
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY...COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...IFR CIGS. VSBY OCCASIONALLY 2-5 MI THIS MORNING IN R/DRIZZLE
EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 1/4SM IN FOG KORH EARLY THIS MORNING. VSBY SHOULD
IMPROVE TO 6+ THIS AFTN AS CIGS RISE 200 FT FROM CURRENT 08Z OBS.
NE GUSTS 15-20 KTS ALL MASS RI N CT TAF SITES TODAY EXCEPT 25-35KT
HYA FMH AND ACK THRU 20Z TODAY.
PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS. IF IT CLEARS INTERIOR THEN LIFR ST/FOG
WOULD BE DEVELOPING CT RVR VALLEY. WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE
NORTHERLY ALONG THE COAST....GUSTS 20-25 KTS STILL POSSIBLE KACK AND
KHYA EARLY.
WED...LOOKS LIKE MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
COAST. BAF/BDL MIGHT IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS MIDDAY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO START.
PATCHY IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THOUGH THE
DAY...BUT MAINLY AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS. BRF ENE
G25 KTS POSSIBLE MA COAST THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI.
SATURDAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. W WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SNE...POSSIBLY HIGHER
VCNTY KACK.
&&
.MARINE...
TRIMMED THE GALE TO NR AND SE OF KACK BASED ON 00Z/24 GFS BUFKIT
OUTPUT. SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY WED OUTER WATERS.
NE SCA TODAY WITH SPOTTY GALE NR AND SE OF KACK THIS MORNING.
10 TO 13 FT OPEN WATERS SEAS E OF MASSACHUSETTS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE WED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS CANNOT YET BE RULED
OUT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TDWR TBOS CONT OTS.
44020 ACK SOUND BUOY CONT OTS. NDBC MAINTENANCE HAS STATUS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/BELK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...DRAG/BELK
MARINE...DRAG/BELK
EQUIPMENT...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240821
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE
SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...THEN SPIN AWAY
INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
RADAR STP IS MUCH TOO HIGH BUZZARDS BAY SOUTHWARD...OTRW OK IN SNE.
LEFTOVER LIGHT LOW TOP R/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTN...SHRINKING FROM ITS 3AM COVERAGE TO MOSTLY E MASS BY
FORENOON.
TEMPS ARE THE COLDER NAM/UK/RGEM IDEA VS THE MILDER LESS RESOLVED GFS.
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE A 60/40 BLEND OF 00Z/24 NAM/GFS MOS WINDS.
GUSTS WERE DERIVED FROM THE 00Z/24 BUFKIT. GFS VERIFIED BETTER
INITIALLY.
CLOUD COVER FAVORED THE MORE ROBUST BL RH OF THE NAM WITH RGEM
SKYCOVER SUPPORT.
POPS FCST WAS THE 21Z SREF SUPPORTED BY ITS 03Z/24 VSN AND ALSO THE
RGEM/GGEM/UK SPITTING OUT MEAGER AMTS OF NUISANCE R/DRIZZLE-GENERALLY
UNDER .10 INCHES AFTER 09Z TODAY....NOT THE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER SHOWERS
OF THE PAST 12 HOURS WHEN WIDESPREAD .25 TO .75 INCHES OCCURRED S OF THE
MA PIKE.
SURGE GUIDANCE IS MISSING THE HALF A FOOT DEPARTURE AT 3AM BOS/ACK/PVD.
THE TWL PRODUCT WAS UPDATED WITH A NEW STORM TIDE SUM BASED ON SURGE
ADJUSTMENTS THRU ABOUT 20Z TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS AVG OR ABV AVG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
COULD NOT BUY INTO THE DRYING OF THE 00Z/24 GFS. SREF POPS AND COMBINED
NAM/RGEM/GGEM/UKMET CUES SUGGEST THAT ANY CLEARING IF IT OCCURS THIS
EVENING WOULD PERMIT QUICK RADIATION FOG/ST FORMING. SO THE FCST
DECISION WAS TO STAY MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS. THAT NARROWS THE
DIURNAL TEMPS...INCREASES SFC TDS AND MEANS MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A COUPLE OF POCKETS OF T TO .01 R-/L-.
BASICALLY NOT A LOT OF CLEARING FCST...THO ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
WILL BE MORE THAN INDICATED WITHIN THE NEW UPCOMING 4 AM FCST.
CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AND DEPARTURE FROM MOS IS AVG.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LEANING MORE TOWARD AN
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 23/12Z MODELS.
THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN FROM THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE. IF WE GET TOO MUCH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTED NORTH...COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF MARINE STRATUS
INSTEAD.
THINKING WEDNESDAY...AND AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY. A LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SO THINKING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RISK FOR RAINFALL
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY POSES ANOTHER PROBLEM...WITH THE GFS
MERGING THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS MERGER RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT TO SAY MUCH MORE THAN THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS NOTED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENERGETIC
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...BUT AT THIS POINT REMAIN A LOW PROBABILITY.
THINKING THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT THE 23/12Z ECMWF HAS A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE
WINDS FOR NOW SINCE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THIS SOLUTION
TO PLAY OUT.
THIS STORM MODELED TO DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT US
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10 FEET
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY...COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...IFR CIGS. VSBY OCCASIONALLY 2-5 MI IN R/DRIZZLE EXCEPT
OCCASIONALLY 1/4SM IN FOG KORH. NE GUSTS 15-20 KTS ALL MASS RI N CT
TAF SITES EXCEPT 25-35KT HYA FMH AND ACK THRU 20Z TODAY.
PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS. IF IT CLEARS INTERIOR THEN LIFR ST/FOG
WOULD BE DEVELOPING CT RVR VALLEY. WINDS DIMINISH AND TURN MORE
NORTHERLY ALONG THE COAST.
WED...MVFR OR VFR CIGS?
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO START.
PATCHY IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THOUGH THE
DAY...BUT MAINLY AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS. BRF ENE
G25 KTS POSSIBLE MA COAST THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI.
SATURDAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. W WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SNE...POSSIBLY HIGHER
VCNTY KACK.
&&
.MARINE...
TRIMMED THE GALE TO NR AND SE OF KACK BASED ON 00Z/24 GFS BUFKIT
OUTPUT. SCA EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY WED OUTER WATERS.
NE SCA TODAY WITH SPOTTY GALE NR AND SE OF KACK THIS MORNING.
10 TO 13 FT OPEN WATERS SEAS E OF MASSACHUSETTS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE WED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS CANNOT YET BE RULED
OUT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TDWR TBOS CONT OTS.
44020 ACK SOUND BUOY CONT OTS. NDBC MAINTENANCE HAS STATUS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/BELK 320A
NEAR TERM...DRAG 320A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 320A
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...DRAG/BELK 320A
MARINE...DRAG/BELK 320A
EQUIPMENT...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240421
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1121 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS NC AT 10 PM WILL MOVE NE PASSING WELL EAST
OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR STP IS MUCH TOO HIGH BUZZARDS BAY SOUTHWARD...OTRW OK IN SNE.
MINOR FCST ADJUSTMENTS IN THE 1030PM PACKAGE...HIGHER POPS WHERE ITS
RAINING NOW AND E COASTAL MASS WED MORNING 7AM-11A EST FOR LEFTOVER
ONSHORE LOW TOP MEASURABLE R/DRIZZLE.
NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL.
TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. THIS MOVES THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS. THE GFS DRIES OUT THE SUB-850 MB LAYER FAST...BUT
THE NAM HOLDS ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...THE GLOBAL STARTS
DRYING OUT THIS LAYER AFTER 18Z. WE HAVE AGREED WITH THE SLOW
CLEARING MOSTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STIFF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING AND MIDDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
GFS FORECASTS 950 MB WINDS AT 40-45 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE NAM
HAS 35 KNOTS AND MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE TO BRING THE
WIND TO THE SURFACE. WILL BRING CAPE/IDS WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
BUT KEEP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT.
TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LEANING MORE TOWARD AN
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 23/12Z MODELS.
THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN FROM THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE. IF WE GET TOO MUCH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTED NORTH...COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF MARINE STRATUS
INSTEAD.
THINKING WEDNESDAY...AND AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY. A LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SO THINKING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RISK FOR RAINFALL
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY POSES ANOTHER PROBLEM...WITH THE GFS
MERGING THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS MERGER RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT TO SAY MUCH MORE THAN THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS NOTED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENERGETIC
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...BUT AT THIS POINT REMAIN A LOW PROBABILITY.
THINKING THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT THE 23/12Z ECMWF HAS A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE
WINDS FOR NOW SINCE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THIS SOLUTION
TO PLAY OUT.
THIS STORM MODELED TO DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT US
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10 FEET
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY...COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...IFR CIGS...EXCEPT VARIABLE TO MVFR CIGS KBAF/KBDL. VSBY
OCCASIONALLY 2-5 MI IN R/DRIZZLE EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY 1/4SM IN FOG
KORH. PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS. 06Z TAFS WILL BE GENERATED FROM AVN
GRIDS AS DEVELOPED FROM KBOX USING MATCH LAV ANS REF PROBS FOR
CIGS/VSBYS.
NE GUSTS TO 30 KTS ANTICIPATED KACK LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...LINGERING IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE MORNING. MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG EARLY. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS EARLY AT
HYA/FMH/ACK.
TUE NIGHT...SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W TO E OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PATCHY
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THOUGH THE
DAY...BUT MAINLY AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS. BRF ENE
G25 KTS POSSIBLE MA COAST THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI.
SATURDAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. W WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SNE...POSSIBLY HIGHER
VCNTY KACK.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES A LITTLE. MODELS SHOW 30-35 KNOTS /ECMWF AND NAM/
OR 40-45 KNOTS /GFS/ AT 950 MB...WITHIN RANGE OF BEING BROUGHT TO THE
SURFACE IN A HEAVIER BURST OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD CARRY ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
NANTUCKET SOUND...THE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
ALL OTHER ZONES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS AND/OR 5 FOOT
SEAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OTHER WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS. THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS CANNOT YET BE RULED
OUT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TDWR TBOS CONT OTS.
44020 ACK SOUND BUOY CONT OTS. NDBC MAINTENANCE HAS STATUS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DRAG/BELK 1121P
NEAR TERM...WTB/DRAG 1121P
SHORT TERM...WTB/DRAG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/BELK/NMB 1121P
MARINE...WTB/DRAG/BELK
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 1121P
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240130
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
830 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE HATTERAS NC AT 8 PM WILL MOVE NE PASSING EAST OF
NANTUCKET TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
RADAR STP IS MUCH TOO HIGH BUZZARDS BAY SOUTHWARD...OTRW OK IN SNE.
GOING FCST AS OF 0120Z LOOKS DECENT.
NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL.
TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. THIS MOVES THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS. THE GFS DRIES OUT THE SUB-850 MB LAYER FAST...BUT
THE NAM HOLDS ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...THE GLOBAL STARTS
DRYING OUT THIS LAYER AFTER 18Z. WE HAVE AGREED WITH THE SLOW
CLEARING MOSTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STIFF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING AND MIDDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
GFS FORECASTS 950 MB WINDS AT 40-45 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE NAM
HAS 35 KNOTS AND MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE TO BRING THE
WIND TO THE SURFACE. WILL BRING CAPE/IDS WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
BUT KEEP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT.
TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LEANING MORE TOWARD AN
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 23/12Z MODELS.
THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN FROM THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE. IF WE GET TOO MUCH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTED NORTH...COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF MARINE STRATUS
INSTEAD.
THINKING WEDNESDAY...AND AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY. A LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SO THINKING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RISK FOR RAINFALL
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY POSES ANOTHER PROBLEM...WITH THE GFS
MERGING THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS MERGER RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT TO SAY MUCH MORE THAN THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS NOTED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENERGETIC
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...BUT AT THIS POINT REMAIN A LOW PROBABILITY.
THINKING THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT THE 23/12Z ECMWF HAS A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE
WINDS FOR NOW SINCE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THIS SOLUTION
TO PLAY OUT.
THIS STORM MODELED TO DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT US
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10 FEET
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY...COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY ON...THEN CIGS DETERIORATE TO IFR
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS
ANTICIPATED HYA/FMH/ACK LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...LINGERING IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE MORNING. MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG EARLY. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS EARLY AT
HYA/FMH/ACK.
TUE NIGHT...SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W TO E OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PATCHY
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THOUGH THE
DAY...BUT MAINLY AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS. BRF ENE
G25 KTS POSSIBLE MA COAST.
SATURDAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. W WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS ACROSS ALL OF SNE...POSSIBLY HIGHER
VCNTY KACK.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES A LITTLE. MODELS SHOW 30-35 KNOTS /ECMWF AND NAM/
OR 40-45 KNOTS /GFS/ AT 950 MB...WITHIN RANGE OF BEING BROUGHT TO THE
SURFACE IN A HEAVIER BURST OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD CARRY ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
NANTUCKET SOUND...THE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
ALL OTHER ZONES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS AND/OR 5 FOOT
SEAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OTHER WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS. THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS CANNOT YET BE RULED
OUT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK 829P
NEAR TERM...WTB/DRAG 829P
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG/BELK/NMB 829P
MARINE...WTB/BELK
000
FXUS61 KBOX 232351
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
651 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOISTENED THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...MOST OF THE ACTION TOOK PLACE IN CONNECTICUT WHERE
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN WAS MEASURED. THIS MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR SHOWS MORE RAIN MOVING NORTH TOWARD
RI/EASTERN MASS AND A SECOND AREA MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARD
CONNECTICUT. WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MOS POPS...HAND-ADJUSTED UP ABOUT
5 PERCENT. CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND LIKELY POPS
NORTHWEST.
NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL.
TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. THIS MOVES THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS. THE GFS DRIES OUT THE SUB-850 MB LAYER FAST...BUT
THE NAM HOLDS ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...THE GLOBAL STARTS
DRYING OUT THIS LAYER AFTER 18Z. WE HAVE AGREED WITH THE SLOW
CLEARING MOSTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STIFF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING AND MIDDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
GFS FORECASTS 950 MB WINDS AT 40-45 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE NAM
HAS 35 KNOTS AND MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE TO BRING THE
WIND TO THE SURFACE. WILL BRING CAPE/IDS WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
BUT KEEP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT.
TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LEANING MORE TOWARD AN
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 232/12Z MODELS.
THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN FROM THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE. IF WE GET TOO MUCH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTED NORTH...COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF MARINE STRATUS
INSTEAD.
THINKING WEDNESDAY...AND AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY. A LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SO THINKING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RISK FOR RAINFALL
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY POSES ANOTHER PROBLEM...WITH THE GFS
MERGING THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS MERGER RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT TO SAY MUCH MORE THAN THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS NOTED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENERGETIC
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...BUT AT THIS POINT REMAIN A LOW PROBABILITY.
THINKING THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT THE 23/12Z ECMWF HAS A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE
WINDS FOR NOW SINCE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THIS SOLUTION
TO PLAY OUT.
THIS STORM MODELED TO DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT US
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10 FEET
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY...COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY ON...THEN CIGS DETERIORATE TO IFR
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS
ANTICIPATED HYA/FMH/ACK LATE TONIGHT.
TUESDAY...LINGERING IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE MORNING. MVFR
VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG EARLY. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KTS EARLY AT
HYA/FMH/ACK.
TUE NIGHT...SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W TO E OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PATCHY
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THOUGH THE
DAY...BUT MAINLY AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS.
SATURDAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES A LITTLE. MODELS SHOW 30-35 KNOTS /ECMWF AND NAM/
OR 40-45 KNOTS /GFS/ AT 950 MB...WITHIN RANGE OF BEING BROUGHT TO THE
SURFACE IN A HEAVIER BURST OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD CARRY ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
NANTUCKET SOUND...THE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
ALL OTHER ZONES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS AND/OR 5 FOOT
SEAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OTHER WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS. THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS CANNOT YET BE RULED
OUT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/NMB
MARINE...WTB/BELK
000
FXUS61 KBOX 232129
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOISTENED THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...MOST OF THE ACTION TOOK PLACE IN CONNECTICUT WHERE
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN WAS MEASURED. THIS MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR SHOWS MORE RAIN MOVING NORTH TOWARD
RI/EASTERN MASS AND A SECOND AREA MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARD
CONNECTICUT. WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MOS POPS...HAND-ADJUSTED UP ABOUT
5 PERCENT. CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND LIKELY POPS
NORTHWEST.
NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL.
TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. THIS MOVES THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS. THE GFS DRIES OUT THE SUB-850 MB LAYER FAST...BUT
THE NAM HOLDS ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...THE GLOBAL STARTS
DRYING OUT THIS LAYER AFTER 18Z. WE HAVE AGREED WITH THE SLOW
CLEARING MOSTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STIFF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING AND MIDDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
GFS FORECASTS 950 MB WINDS AT 40-45 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE NAM
HAS 35 KNOTS AND MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE TO BRING THE
WIND TO THE SURFACE. WILL BRING CAPE/IDS WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
BUT KEEP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT.
TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LEANING MORE TOWARD AN
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 232/12Z MODELS.
THE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN FROM THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE. IF WE GET TOO MUCH OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WITH THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTED NORTH...COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF MARINE STRATUS
INSTEAD.
THINKING WEDNESDAY...AND AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY. A LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO START MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY...SO THINKING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RISK FOR RAINFALL
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY POSES ANOTHER PROBLEM...WITH THE GFS
MERGING THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS MERGER RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT TO SAY MUCH MORE THAN THAT IS THE MOST LIKELY
DAY FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AS NOTED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ENERGETIC
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...BUT AT THIS POINT REMAIN A LOW PROBABILITY.
THINKING THE GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE...BUT THE 23/12Z ECMWF HAS A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE
WINDS FOR NOW SINCE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN FOR THIS SOLUTION
TO PLAY OUT.
THIS STORM MODELED TO DEPART FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT US
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10 FEET
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY...COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR THIS EVENING MOST
TERMINALS...THEN REMAINING IFR OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN RAIN
AND FOG.
TUESDAY...WEST OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS /IN RAIN
AND FOG/ IN THE MORNING. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...IFR CONDITIONS LINGER DURING THE
DAY.
TUE NIGHT...SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W TO E OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PATCHY
IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG POSSIBLE AT NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS.
THURSDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR THOUGH THE
DAY...BUT MAINLY AT NIGHT. TIMING OF THIS CHANGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS.
SATURDAY...IFR CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES A LITTLE. MODELS SHOW 30-35 KNOTS /ECMWF AND NAM/
OR 40-45 KNOTS /GFS/ AT 950 MB...WITHIN RANGE OF BEING BROUGHT TO THE
SURFACE IN A HEAVIER BURST OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD CARRY ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
NANTUCKET SOUND...THE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
ALL OTHER ZONES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS AND/OR 5 FOOT
SEAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OTHER WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS. THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS OF MA
AND RI WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS CANNOT YET BE RULED
OUT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/BELK
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK/NMB
MARINE...WTB/BELK
000
FXUS61 KBOX 232031
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
331 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOISTENED THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...MOST OF THE ACTION TOOK PLACE IN CONNECTICUT WHERE
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN WAS MEASURED. THIS MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR SHOWS MORE RAIN MOVING NORTH TOWARD
RI/EASTERN MASS AND A SECOND AREA MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARD
CONNECTICUT. WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MOS POPS...HAND-ADJUSTED UP ABOUT
5 PERCENT. CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND LIKELY POPS
NORTHWEST.
NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. THIS MOVES THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS. THE GFS DRIES OUT THE SUB-850 MB LAYER FAST...BUT
THE NAM HOLDS ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...THE GLOBAL STARTS
DRYING OUT THIS LAYER AFTER 18Z. WE HAVE AGREED WITH THE SLOW
CLEARING MOSTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STIFF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING AND MIDDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
GFS FORECASTS 950 MB WINDS AT 40-45 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE NAM
HAS 35 KNOTS AND MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE TO BRING THE
WIND TO THE SURFACE. WILL BRING CAPE/IDS WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
BUT KEEP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT.
TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WED-THU MORNING LEADS TO A BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
ON FCST DETAILS THIS PERIOD THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COMBINED GREAT
LAKES COASTAL MERGER THU NIGHT OR FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
A DEVELOPING BLUSTERY WEEKEND.
WED-THU...MAINTAINED CONSIDERABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE 4PM SUNDAY KBOX
FCST DUE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS. PROBABLY DRY WED INTO EARLY
THU BUT AM UNCERTAIN DUE THE RESULTANT SFC WX BEING DEPENDENT ON
SUBTLE BL WIND DIRECTION/ASSOCIATED TERRAIN LIFT. THE 00Z GFS MOS WAS
NOT HEAVILY WEIGHTED...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLEARING AND THE
OUTPUT OF THE NAM AND GGEM TEMP FIELDS.
LATE THU INTO THE WKND...BLV MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SOME SORT OF LOW PRES
MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT DID NOT FCST IN THE GRIDS OR WRITE INTO THE HWO AS ITS DAY 5.
FOR THE COAST THIS COULD BE EITHER OR BOTH A BRIEF ELY GALE FRI
FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY WKND WITH POCKETS OF WLY GALE FORCE GUSTS.
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AT NIGHT...UPWARD DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING AND THE
00Z/23 GFS MOS.
EROSION...CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE ELY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10
FEET TUE INTO WED AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI. WE CANT FCST THE EXTENT OF
EROSION BUT IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR THIS EVENING MOST
TERMINALS...THEN REMAINING IFR OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN RAIN
AND FOG.
TUESDAY...WEST OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS /IN RAIN
AND FOG/ IN THE MORNING. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...IFR CONDITIONS LINGER DURING THE
DAY.
TUE NIGHT...SKY CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM W TO E OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT. LOCAL IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED
AND EARLY THU.
ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A PERIOD
OF GUSTY E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONGIHT...CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES A LITTLE. MODELS SHOW 30-35 KNOTS /ECMWF AND NAM/
OR 40-45 KNOTS /GFS/ AT 950 MB...WITHIN RANGE OF BEING BROUGHT TO THE
SURFACE IN A HEAVIER BURST OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD CARRY ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
NANTUCKET SOUND...THE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
ALL OTHER ZONES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS AND/OR 5 FOOT
SEAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OTHER WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THEOUTER
WATERS. THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND THU IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN
ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 232025
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
325 PM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TONIGHT
AND PASS EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVED NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOISTENED THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...MOST OF THE ACTION TOOK PLACE IN CONNECTICUT WHERE
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF RAIN WAS MEASURED. THIS MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR SHOWS MORE RAIN MOVING NORTH TOWARD
RI/EASTERN MASS AND A SECOND AREA MOVING UP THE COAST TOWARD
CONNECTICUT. WE WILL USE A BLEND OF MOS POPS...HAND-ADJUSTED UP ABOUT
5 PERCENT. CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...AND LIKELY POPS
NORTHWEST.
NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY. THIS MOVES THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROF MOVES ACROSS. THE GFS DRIES OUT THE SUB-850 MB LAYER FAST...BUT
THE NAM HOLDS ONTO THIS MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY...THE GLOBAL STARTS
DRYING OUT THIS LAYER AFTER 18Z. WE HAVE AGREED WITH THE SLOW
CLEARING MOSTLY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
STIFF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TUESDAY
MORNING AND MIDDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH.
GFS FORECASTS 950 MB WINDS AT 40-45 KNOTS 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE NAM
HAS 35 KNOTS AND MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE TO BRING THE
WIND TO THE SURFACE. WILL BRING CAPE/IDS WINDS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
BUT KEEP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL.
SKIES CLEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT.
TEMPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WED-THU MORNING LEADS TO A BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
ON FCST DETAILS THIS PERIOD THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COMBINED GREAT
LAKES COASTAL MERGER THU NIGHT OR FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
A DEVELOPING BLUSTERY WEEKEND.
WED-THU...MAINTAINED CONSIDERABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE 4PM SUNDAY KBOX
FCST DUE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS. PROBABLY DRY WED INTO EARLY
THU BUT AM UNCERTAIN DUE THE RESULTANT SFC WX BEING DEPENDENT ON
SUBTLE BL WIND DIRECTION/ASSOCIATED TERRAIN LIFT. THE 00Z GFS MOS WAS
NOT HEAVILY WEIGHTED...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLEARING AND THE
OUTPUT OF THE NAM AND GGEM TEMP FIELDS.
LATE THU INTO THE WKND...BLV MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SOME SORT OF LOW PRES
MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT DID NOT FCST IN THE GRIDS OR WRITE INTO THE HWO AS ITS DAY 5.
FOR THE COAST THIS COULD BE EITHER OR BOTH A BRIEF ELY GALE FRI
FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY WKND WITH POCKETS OF WLY GALE FORCE GUSTS.
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AT NIGHT...UPWARD DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING AND THE
00Z/23 GFS MOS.
EROSION...CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE ELY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10
FEET TUE INTO WED AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI. WE CANT FCST THE EXTENT OF
EROSION BUT IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR MIDDAY EXCEPT AN AREA OF HIGHER CIGS OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND FOG.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WED THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED
AND EARLY THU.
ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A PERIOD
OF GUSTY E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONGIHT...CAROLINA LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES A LITTLE. MODELS SHOW 30-35 KNOTS /ECMWF AND NAM/
OR 40-45 KNOTS /GFS/ AT 950 MB...WITHIN RANGE OF BEING BROUGHT TO THE
SURFACE IN A HEAVIER BURST OF RAIN. THIS SHOULD CARRY ENOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND
NANTUCKET SOUND...THE AREAS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
ALL OTHER ZONES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT WINDS AND/OR 5 FOOT
SEAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OTHER WATERS.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THEOUTER
WATERS. THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND THU IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN
ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-
233>235-237-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...WTB/DRAG
MARINE...WTB/DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231528
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1028 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS MOVING UP IN A ZONE ACROSS RI AND EASTERN CT BUT NOT FARTHER
EAST. MOST REPORTS SO FAR ARE OF TRACE LEVEL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BUT
THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LIFT GENERATES MORE
PRECIP AND THE LOWER AIRMASS MOISTENS. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY A LITTLE EARLIER ALONG THE RI COAST AND AROUND BUZZARDS
BAY...AND BLENDED THIS INTO THE ORIGINAL TIMING FOR ONSET.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST...A
FEW SCATTERED MINOR DIFFERENCES. WINDS ARE A FEW KNOTS
STRONGER...THIS UPDATE BUMPS SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE MID 20S ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS BASED IN PART ON OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE LOCKING IN ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING LOW. APPEARS THE GFS AND RGEM WERE
OUTLIERS AS COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS ENSEMBLES WITH A LITTLE
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SREF. APPEARS THE LOW WILL PASS SE OF
NANTUCKET TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY-CATEGORICAL
POPS TONIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...
FEEL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOME HEAVIER
RAINS MAY CLIP THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS DID NOT HANDLE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WELL AT ALL CONSIDERING THE
ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...SO LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER READINGS. KEPT TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD
OVER S NH /MID-UPPER 30S FORECAST FOR NOW/. AS FOR MONDAY...LEANED
TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS WHICH TEND
TO REMOVE THE MOS SEASONAL EFFECTS. WENT WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S.
ONLY OTHER PROBLEM COULD BE A BRIEF WIND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE
THE LOW IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WELL AS MOVES
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING LEADS TO A BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
ON FCST DETAILS THIS PERIOD THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COMBINED GREAT
LAKES COASTAL MERGER THU NIGHT OR FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
A DEVELOPING BLUSTERY WEEKEND.
TUE NIGHT-THU...MAINTAINED CONSIDERABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE 4PM SUNDAY
KBOX FCST DUE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS. OVERALL..LEFTOVER R OR
DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT. PROBABLY DRY WED INTO EARLY THU BUT AM UNCERTAIN
DUE THE RESULTANT SFC WX BEING DEPENDENT ON SUBTLE BL WIND
DIRECTION/ASSOCIATED TERRAIN LIFT. THE 00Z GFS MOS WAS NOT HEAVILY
WEIGHTED...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLEARING AND THE OUTPUT OF
THE NAM AND GGEM TEMP FIELDS.
LATE THU INTO THE WKND...BLV MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SOME SORT OF LOW PRES
MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT DID NOT FCST IN THE GRIDS OR WRITE INTO THE HWO AS ITS DAY 5.
FOR THE COAST THIS COULD BE EITHER OR BOTH A BRIEF ELY GALE FRI
FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY WKND WITH POCKETS OF WLY GALE FORCE GUSTS.
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AT NIGHT...UPWARD DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING AND THE
00Z/23 GFS MOS.
EROSION...CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE ELY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10
FEET TUE INTO WED AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI. WE CANT FCST THE EXTENT OF
EROSION BUT IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR MIDDAY EXCEPT AN AREA OF HIGHER CIGS OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND FOG.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED
AND EARLY THU.
ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A PERIOD
OF GUSTY E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...E-NE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES BETTER. THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS RUNNING
A FOOT OR SO TOO LOW THIS MORNING. BUOY 008 WELL SE OF NANTUCKET UP
TO 10 FEET ALREADY AT 09Z AND BUOY 018 UP TO 7 FEET. HAVE INCREASED
THE SEAS ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE LOW PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET LATE
TONIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS AS WELL AS NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY. HAVE PUT UP A
GALE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. WAVEWATCH HAS ALSO FORECASTED SEAS UP TO 13 FEET ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER SCA CONDS TUE EVENING SHIFT TO HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND THU
IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWS BOSTON-TAUNTON POINT AND CLICK HAS DELAYS IN UPDATING BY ABOUT 45
MINUTES- A CONTINUING RECENT PROBLEM.
TDWR IN THE BOSTON AREA CONTS OTS UFN.
44020...ANY PROBLEM WITH THIS NANTUCKET SOUND BUOY WILL PROBABLY BE
UPDATED ON ITS MAINTENANCE LINK BY NDBC LATER TODAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT/WTB
MARINE...DRAG/EVT/WTB
EQUIPMENT...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231023
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
523 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES HAS MADE ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...
TRACKING NE DURING THE DAY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEVELOPING LOW AND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE E-NE WINDS TO PICK UP MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
NOTING NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP REMAINING WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND ON
THE NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AT 09Z...AND REMAINING OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. FEEL SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TRYING TO BRING PRECIP INTO
THE REGION TOO QUICKLY...THOUGH MIGHT SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE STEADY ONSHORE WIND. DID NOT MENTION
IN THE ZONES OR GRIDS FOR NOW...NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT OF THIS RIGHT
NOW. HOWEVER...DID BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS BY
MIDDAY...REACHING S NH BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE TEMP PROFILE WELL AT ALL...AT LEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE NON-DIURNAL STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS
SO FAR. BY MIDDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 50 DEGREES...AND
MAYBE THE MID 50S ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS E-NE WINDS
FRESHEN. KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-AROUND 50 INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE LOCKING IN ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING LOW. APPEARS THE GFS AND RGEM WERE
OUTLIERS AS COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS ENSEMBLES WITH A LITTLE
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SREF. APPEARS THE LOW WILL PASS SE OF
NANTUCKET TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY-CATEGORICAL
POPS TONIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...
FEEL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOME HEAVIER
RAINS MAY CLIP THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS DID NOT HANDLE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WELL AT ALL CONSIDERING THE
ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...SO LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER READINGS. KEPT TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD
OVER S NH /MID-UPPER 30S FORECAST FOR NOW/. AS FOR MONDAY...LEANED
TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS WHICH TEND
TO REMOVE THE MOS SEASONAL EFFECTS. WENT WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S.
ONLY OTHER PROBLEM COULD BE A BRIEF WIND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE
THE LOW IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WELL AS MOVES
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING LEADS TO A BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE
ON FCST DETAILS THIS PERIOD THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COMBINED GREAT
LAKES COASTAL MERGER THU NIGHT OR FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
A DEVELOPING BLUSTERY WEEKEND.
TUE NIGHT-THU...MAINTAINED CONSIDERABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE 4PM SUNDAY
KBOX FCST DUE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS. OVERALL..LEFTOVER R OR
DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT. PROBABLY DRY WED INTO EARLY THU BUT AM UNCERTAIN
DUE THE RESULTANT SFC WX BEING DEPENDENT ON SUBTLE BL WIND
DIRECTION/ASSOCIATED TERRAIN LIFT. THE 00Z GFS MOS WAS NOT HEAVILY
WEIGHTED...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLEARING AND THE OUTPUT OF
THE NAM AND GGEM TEMP FIELDS.
LATE THU INTO THE WKND...BLV MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SOME SORT OF LOW PRES
MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
BUT DID NOT FCST IN THE GRIDS OR WRITE INTO THE HWO AS ITS DAY 5.
FOR THE COAST THIS COULD BE EITHER OR BOTH A BRIEF ELY GALE FRI
FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY WKND WITH POCKETS OF WLY GALE FORCE GUSTS.
TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AT NIGHT...UPWARD DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING AND THE
00Z/23 GFS MOS.
EROSION...CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE ELY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10
FEET TUE INTO WED AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI. WE CANT FCST THE EXTENT OF
EROSION BUT IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED. MAY SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS MOVING INTO S
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG. LOW CHANCE OF LOCAL DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED
AND EARLY THU.
ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A PERIOD
OF GUSTY E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...E-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...THOUGH MAY REACH THE S SOUNDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. NOTED THE
WNA WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS RUNNING A FOOT OR SO TOO LOW THIS MORNING.
BUOY 008 WELL SE OF NANTUCKET UP TO 10 FEET ALREADY AT 09Z AND BUOY
018 UP TO 7 FEET. HAVE INCREASED THE SEAS ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE LOW PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET LATE
TONIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS AS WELL AS NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY. HAVE PUT UP A
GALE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. WAVEWATCH HAS ALSO FORECASTED SEAS UP TO 13 FEET ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER SCA CONDS TUE EVENING SHIFT TO HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND THU
IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWS BOSTON-TAUNTON POINT AND CLICK HAS DELAYS IN UPDATING BY ABOUT 45
MINUTES- A CONTINUING RECENT PROBLEM.
TDWR IN THE BOSTON AREA CONTS OTS UFN.
44020...ANY PROBLEM WITH THIS NANTUCKET SOUND BUOY WILL PROBABLY BE
UPDATED ON ITS MAINTENANCE LINK BY NDBC LATER TODAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG 518A
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
EQUIPMENT...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231007
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE
COD LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
COVERS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES HAS MADE ITS WAY TO NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST...
TRACKING NE DURING THE DAY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEVELOPING LOW AND THE HIGH WILL CAUSE E-NE WINDS TO PICK UP MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
NOTING NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP REMAINING WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND ON
THE NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AT 09Z...AND REMAINING OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. FEEL SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TRYING TO BRING PRECIP INTO
THE REGION TOO QUICKLY...THOUGH MIGHT SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE DAY WITH THE STEADY ONSHORE WIND. DID NOT MENTION
IN THE ZONES OR GRIDS FOR NOW...NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT OF THIS RIGHT
NOW. HOWEVER...DID BRING IN CHANCE POPS TO SOUTH COASTAL AREAS BY
MIDDAY...REACHING S NH BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
MODELS NOT HANDLING THE TEMP PROFILE WELL AT ALL...AT LEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH THE NON-DIURNAL STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING READINGS
SO FAR. BY MIDDAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH AROUND 50 DEGREES...AND
MAYBE THE MID 50S ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS E-NE WINDS
FRESHEN. KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S-AROUND 50 INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE LOCKING IN ON TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING LOW. APPEARS THE GFS AND RGEM WERE
OUTLIERS AS COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS ENSEMBLES WITH A LITTLE
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SREF. APPEARS THE LOW WILL PASS SE OF
NANTUCKET TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY-CATEGORICAL
POPS TONIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW...
FEEL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOME HEAVIER
RAINS MAY CLIP THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
MODELS DID NOT HANDLE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WELL AT ALL CONSIDERING THE
ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...SO LEANED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER READINGS. KEPT TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD
OVER S NH /MID-UPPER 30S FORECAST FOR NOW/. AS FOR MONDAY...LEANED
TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS WHICH TEND
TO REMOVE THE MOS SEASONAL EFFECTS. WENT WITH READINGS IN THE
LOWER-MID 50S.
ONLY OTHER PROBLEM COULD BE A BRIEF WIND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE
THE LOW IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WELL AS MOVES
A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...
BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED. MAY SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS MOVING INTO S
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG. LOW CHANCE OF LOCAL DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST.
TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED
AND EARLY THU.
ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A
PERIOD OF E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN
ALONG WITH IMPROVING CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...E-NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...THOUGH MAY REACH THE S SOUNDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. NOTED THE
WNA WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS RUNNING A FOOT OR SO TOO LOW THIS MORNING.
BUOY 008 WELL SE OF NANTUCKET UP TO 10 FEET ALREADY AT 09Z AND BUOY
018 UP TO 7 FEET. HAVE INCREASED THE SEAS ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE LOW PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET LATE
TONIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS AS WELL AS NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY. HAVE PUT UP A
GALE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. WAVEWATCH HAS ALSO FORECASTED SEAS UP TO 13 FEET ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER SCA CONDS TUE EVENING SHIFT TO HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND
THU IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWS BOSTON-TAUNTON POINT AND CLICK HAS DELAYS IN UPDATING BY ABOUT
45 MINUTES-A CONTINUING RECENT PROBLEM.
TDWR IN THE BOSTON AREA CONTS OTS UFN.
44020...PROBLEM WILL UPDATED BY NDBC LATER TODAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG EXPECT AROUND 520 AM
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 5A
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231001
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
501 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES PUSHES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND
AT 04Z. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MAY WORK ASHORE
ACROSS THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL WORK N OVERNIGHT. NOTING SOME RADAR RETURNS ON THE NE MOSAIC
RADAR...BUT REMAINS WELL S OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND FOR NOW.
NOTED THAT TEMPS WERE MILDER WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD ALREADY REACHED...
WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS N CENTRAL MA/S NH WHERE SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH IN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES STARTED OFF CLEAR. NE WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...
ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST
ERROR. 22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THAT SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...
BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST NOTED ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED
AND EARLY THU.
ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A PERIOD
OF E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN ALONG WITH
IMPROVING CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...E-NE WINDS CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. NOTED
THE FERRY ON THE NANTUCKET SOUND CROSSING HAD GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH
SEAS UP TO 4 FT. BROUGHT THE SMALL CRAFTS UP FOR THE S SOUNDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER SCA CONDS TUE EVENING SHIFT TO HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND
THU IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWS BOSTON-TAUNTON POINT AND CLICK HAS DELAYS IN UPDATING BY ABOUT 45
MINUTES- A CONTINUING RECENT PROBLEM.
TDWR IN THE BOSTON AREA CONTS OTS UFN.
44020...PROBLEM WILL UPDATED BY NDBC LATER TODAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG EXPECT AROUND 520 AM
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 5A
000
FXUS61 KBOX 230958
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
458 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES PUSHES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND
AT 04Z. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MAY WORK ASHORE
ACROSS THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL WORK N OVERNIGHT. NOTING SOME RADAR RETURNS ON THE NE MOSAIC
RADAR...BUT REMAINS WELL S OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND FOR NOW.
NOTED THAT TEMPS WERE MILDER WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD ALREADY REACHED...
WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS N CENTRAL MA/S NH WHERE SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH IN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES STARTED OFF CLEAR. NE WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...
ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST
ERROR. 22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THAT SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...
BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST NOTED ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE.
GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED
AND EARLY THU.
ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR
CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A PERIOD
OF E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN ALONG WITH
IMPROVING CONDS.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...E-NE WINDS CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. NOTED
THE FERRY ON THE NANTUCKET SOUND CROSSING HAD GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH
SEAS UP TO 4 FT. BROUGHT THE SMALL CRAFTS UP FOR THE S SOUNDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER SCA CONDS TUE EVENING SHIFT TO HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND
THU IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT LONG TERM 458AM
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 230950
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES PUSHES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND
AT 04Z. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MAY WORK ASHORE
ACROSS THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL WORK N OVERNIGHT. NOTING SOME RADAR RETURNS ON THE NE MOSAIC
RADAR...BUT REMAINS WELL S OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND FOR NOW.
NOTED THAT TEMPS WERE MILDER WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD ALREADY REACHED...
WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS N CENTRAL MA/S NH WHERE SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH IN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES STARTED OFF CLEAR. NE WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...
ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST
ERROR. 22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THAT SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...
BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST NOTED ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...E-NE WINDS CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. NOTED
THE FERRY ON THE NANTUCKET SOUND CROSSING HAD GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH
SEAS UP TO 4 FT. BROUGHT THE SMALL CRAFTS UP FOR THE S SOUNDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEFTOVER SCA CONDS TUE EVENING SHIFT TO HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND
THU IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT LONG TERM PORTION 449A
000
FXUS61 KBOX 230946
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
446 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS HIGH PRES PUSHES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND
AT 04Z. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MAY WORK ASHORE
ACROSS THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL WORK N OVERNIGHT. NOTING SOME RADAR RETURNS ON THE NE MOSAIC
RADAR...BUT REMAINS WELL S OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND FOR NOW.
NOTED THAT TEMPS WERE MILDER WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD ALREADY REACHED...
WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS N CENTRAL MA/S NH WHERE SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH IN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES STARTED OFF CLEAR. NE WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...
ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST
ERROR. 22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THAT SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...
BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST NOTED ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...E-NE WINDS CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. NOTED
THE FERRY ON THE NANTUCKET SOUND CROSSING HAD GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH
SEAS UP TO 4 FT. BROUGHT THE SMALL CRAFTS UP FOR THE S SOUNDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY
OF GALES FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-
236.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT 446A
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/EVT
MARINE...DRAG/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 230510
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1210 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH FROM EASTERN MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK INTO
NOVA SCOTIA BY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS HIGH PRES PUSHES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT...LOW OCEAN CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD. FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS ALL THE WAY TO THE BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL LONG ISLAND
AT 04Z. MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAT MAY WORK ASHORE
ACROSS THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT MORE CLOUDS
WILL WORK N OVERNIGHT. NOTING SOME RADAR RETURNS ON THE NE MOSAIC
RADAR...BUT REMAINS WELL S OF NANTUCKET AND LONG ISLAND FOR NOW.
NOTED THAT TEMPS WERE MILDER WHERE THE CLOUDS HAD ALREADY REACHED...
WITH COOLER READINGS ACROSS N CENTRAL MA/S NH WHERE SKIES WERE
MAINLY CLEAR. HOWEVER...AS THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH IN...
EXPECT TEMPS TO EITHER REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WHERE
SKIES STARTED OFF CLEAR. NE WINDS WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...
ALONG WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST
ERROR. 22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THAT SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR...
BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST NOTED ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...E-NE WINDS CONTINUE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT. NOTED
THE FERRY ON THE NANTUCKET SOUND CROSSING HAD GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH
SEAS UP TO 4 FT. BROUGHT THE SMALL CRAFTS UP FOR THE S SOUNDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD.
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY
OF GALES FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/EVT/NMB
MARINE...BELK/EVT/NMB
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222341
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
641 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS INITIALLY OVER BOS TO PVD AND SE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS NW MA/FAR SW NH...WHILE CONDITIONS LOWER TO
MVFR-IFR CIGS TO THE S AND E. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY RAIN
WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS...LOWERING TO IFR EASTERN SECTIONS. AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG...ALSO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY OF
GALES FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222145
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NAM
INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2 PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT
LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS
POSSIBLE WITH A SHORT WAVE. SO KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
FORECAST. BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD. AREAS MVFR CIGS EAST OF
THAT LINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLWM-KPVD-KMVY...DUE TO MARINE STRATUS
MOVING ONSHORE.
TONIGHT...BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN
AND FOG...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY OF
GALES FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222125
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH OUR REGION MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
UP THE COAST LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEHIND THE LOW ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER WEATHER FINISHING OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST BY DAYBREAK. CURRENTLY WATCHING AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MARINE STRATUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND GEORGES
BANK. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE DIURNAL
IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. EXPECTING THESE LOWER
CLOUDS TO COME BACK LATE THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL.
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM TO MINIMIZE FORECAST ERROR.
22/15Z SREF MEAN IS EVEN SLOWER AND WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN THAT
SOLUTION.
MOST 22/12Z MODELS BRING SOME RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TIMING...DID TREND THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
PRECIPITATION FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. THINKING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE ONCE MORE FOR TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CENTER PROBABLY NEAR/SOUTH OF NANTUCKET 12Z
TUE THEN TRACKS GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. NAM IS
A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN THE OTHER MODELS...TAKING LOW
OVER THE CAPE. FOR THIS PACKAGE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM. STARTED OFF WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL OPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. QUITE
A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NAM AND GFS AS NAM INDICATES A LAYER OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR THESE 2
PERIODS...GFS MUCH DRIER. THINK THAT AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER...AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FORECAST...ALSO KEEPING IN MIND GFS INDICATES A
SHORT WAVE. BUT LOW LEVEL LAYER LIKELY TOO THIN FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MOS. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT WED WILL BE COOL AND RAW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES/CHANCE
POPS DUE TO COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY FLOW AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS...AND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT WITH HPC GUIDANCE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING OUR AREA. MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST...AS ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT GGEM KEEPS
CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT AT THIS TIME HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS SEEM PRUDENT FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI. POSSIBILITY THAT
PRECIP COULD END AS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FRI NIGHT IN INTERIOR AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA.
SATURDAY...POTENTIAL FOR BLUSTERY AND CHILLY WEATHER AS TIGHT
GRADIENT LINGERS WHILE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A COLD POOL ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEND ITSELF TO SOME SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS ARE QUITE LOW...IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT CAN/T RULE OUT A
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR INTERIOR...BUT IT WOULD BE TOO WARM AT
THE SURFACE FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD. AREAS MVFR CIGS EAST OF
THAT LINE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF KLWM-KPVD-KMVY...DUE TO MARINE STRATUS
MOVING ONSHORE.
TONIGHT...BRIEF VFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ACROSS EASTERN MA
AND RI. MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...EXPECT VFR CIGS MAINLY N OF ROUTE 2 ACROSS N MA...WHILE
CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR-IFR CIGS S OF THERE. LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG
THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
RAIN WILL APPROACH N CT/RI/SE MA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR. AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN
AND FOG...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY HAVE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
DEVELOPING LATER WED/WED NIGHT.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF MA AND RI. A LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY INCREASE WINDS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT...SCA WINDS/SEAS LINGER TUE AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA. WINDS DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. POSSIBILITY OF
GALES FRI.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB
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