[top]
000
FXUS63 KUNR 222138 RRA
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
238 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO FAST APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO A TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING SFC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN MOVES OVER THE AREA LEADING TO DRY WEATHER ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL INTRODUCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
GR/JW
000
FXUS63 KUNR 222138
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
238 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO FAST APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW/UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WHERE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO A TIGHT SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING SFC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN MOVES OVER THE AREA LEADING TO DRY WEATHER ON
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER
THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 50S. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY
AS A TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL INTRODUCE POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
GR/JW
[top]
000
FXUS63 KABR 222125
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING
LATER TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE ROCKIES. WILL
BEGIN TO SEE SOME ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH REACH THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT. THE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE PLAINS
ON MONDAY...WITH THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN KANSAS. THE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE MAIN LOW
CENTER SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST EAST OF THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...WITH WEAK RIDGING PUSHING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER SASK.
THIS TROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING....THEN LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS SOME
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...MAY
SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SISSETON HILLS. THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS GOING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THOSE
AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT ALL THE PRECIPITATION
MENTION AS RAIN AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM THE
SURFACE TO 800 MB THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
H85 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE FALLING BELOW ZERO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...STILL EXPERIENCING THE
EFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DIVING INTO THE BACK-SIDE OF
A LONGWAVE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. STEEP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN SUB-FREEZING
AIR...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AS IT DIVES
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON ITS WAY TOWARD THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL REMAIN
COOL /CLOSE TO NORMAL/ RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY WITH COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WORKS INTO THE REGION...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SIGNALING THE START OF A MODEST WARM UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT FORECAST TO WORK
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL CANADIAN/US BORDER DURING THE WEEKEND
/DAY 6 AND 7 TIMEFRAME/. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO WORK
THROUGH IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF JET ENERGY IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
AND...CURRENTLY THE ONLY WX IMPACTS FROM THIS LOW AS IT PASSES BY
TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA IS A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE DEGREE
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE FROPA REMAINS THE BIG QUESTION
MARK. SOME OF THE MOST RECENT GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SUPPORTING A
NOTABLE COOL DOWN BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF
MODEL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SOMEWHAT WARMER SCENARIO HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE VFR AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD STAY
THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. HOWEVER...IFR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ARE NOT FAR AWAY...LESS THAN 100 MILES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE KATY TERMINAL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PRESSURE PATTERN FORECAST
TO SET UP TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST
AND DRAW SOME OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE AIR /INCLUDING THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG/ NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS FORECAST AREA...IN
PARTICULAR INTO THE KATY TERMINAL AGAIN. SOME FORM OF IFR FLYING
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE KATY TERMINAL
TONIGHT...LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...VFR FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AT THE KMBG...KPIR AND KABR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH...THE
KPIR AND KABR TERMINALS APPEAR TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF WHERE THIS
LOW LEVEL MOIST AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE TO OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR OR IFR GROUND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING AT THESE TWO
TERMINALS...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A FEW HOURS TO BURN OFF MONDAY
MORNING.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TO BECOME NORTHERLY
WINDS ON MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON MONDAY AT KATY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KUNR 221738
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1038 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE
TROUGH EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
RAISE WIND SPEEDS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND TO LOWER CLOUD
COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN
WY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN
ND INTO SOUTHWEST KS. WEAK RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE CWA. UPPER
TROUGH SLIPPING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF MT/WY/CO...WITH 90KT
JET STREAK CREATING SOME RETURNS ON KUDX WSR-88D. GIVEN SURFACE
T/TD SPREADS AND 00Z KUNR SOUNDING...LITTLE IF ANYTHING REACHING
GROUND. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST.
TONIGHT...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH RACES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH MAIN JET STREAM STARTING TO FORM MAIN WAVE IN SOUTHERN WY/NE.
COULD BE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST.
MONDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER SOUTHERN NE.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES
WEST TO EAST. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH BEST
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/MOISTURE COMBINE.
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO IA/SD/NE BORDER.
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDY AREAS BEHIND THE LOW.
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TAIL END OF WAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING
SMALL CHANCES FOR -SHSN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KABR 221716 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1116 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE FOG THAT FORMED
OVER THE EASTERN CWA HAS PRETTY MUCH BURNED OFF. DID INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER SOME ACROSS THE EAST AS THICKER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THAT PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. NO CHANGES TO
WINDS OR TEMPERATURES. NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOG HAS FORMED IN THE JAMES VALLEY AS THIS AREA HAS BEEN
IN THE TROUGH AXIS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. STRONG
INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED AND THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
LEFT IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4SM AT ABR
AND HON BUT FOG IS VERY SHALLOW. EXPECTING IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS IN LEOLA AND FAULKTON ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LESS THAN AIR
TEMPS AND THIS DRIER AIR IS MOVING EAST. THE LOWER CLOUDS MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS HAVE MATERIALIZED ACROSS MN AND FAR
EASTERN SD. CIGS AT 600FT IN ATY AND BKX. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST.
LOW PRESSURE STILL SET TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING EAST INTO IOWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF RAIN...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THERMAL
PROFILES THROUGHOUT THIS STORM SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST...A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
TIMES WITH ALL SNOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
IT APPEARS FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF LONG TERM MODEL RUNS THAT A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR EXCEPT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONE DECENT WAVE
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS BOTH PERIODS. AFTER THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SLOW WARM-UP LATER IN THE WEEK.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS AIR MOSTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN DOMINATES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FLYING WEATHER AT KATY...VFR
FLYING WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.
LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN PLUNGE INTO IFR FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS MAY RETURN ACROSS THE REGION...IN PARTICULAR AT
KATY AGAIN. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT WITH THE NEXT FEW TAF
ISSUANCES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY RE-SET TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
[top]
000
FXUS63 KFSD 221540 RRA
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
945 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FRONT BETWEEN KMHE AND KFSD AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE EAST.
QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL IT GO. MODELS BRING IT THROUGH KFSD
BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER TO THE EAST AND RIGHT NOW THAT SEEMS PRETTY
REASONABLE. WITH THIS IN MIND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD...GOING
FORECAST OF SKY CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPS LOOK OK. WOULDN`T EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE MUCH WITH SOUNDING PROFILE. WESTERN CWA TO SEE MORE
SUN BUT CAA WILL MINIMIZE TEMP RISE IN THOSE AREAS. IF CLOUDS BREAK
IN EASTERN CWA...WHICH I DONT EXPECT TO OCCUR MUCH AT ALL...TEMPS
WOULD TAKE A JUMP. ATTM I AM CONTINUING WITH MID SHIFTS LINE OF
THINKING. ALREADY UPDATED A FEW OF THE GRID FIELDS AND MAY HAVE TO
TWEAK A FEW MORE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS EAST OF
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A SLOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN
VSBYS AND EVEN CIGS OVER ROUTES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TO THE EAST
OF KFSD...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS DRIER AIR WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING THOSE LOCATIONS. EVEN HAVE A
QUESTION OF WHETHER OR NOT DRIER AIR BEHIND FROTN WILL MAKE TO KFSD
BY 22Z. FRONT BETWEEN KMHE AND KFSD BUT DRIER AIR STILL WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVELANT THROUGH 19Z
BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR AFTER THAT TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS AND 3-5SM FOG EXTENDING FROM YANKTON TO
BROOKINGS AND AREAS TO THE EAST. ALSO SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
FUNNELING DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
RADIATIONAL FOG TO LIFT AND GRADUALLY CLEAR AS FRONT SHIFTS EAST AND
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...EXPECT THE LOW LYING CLOUDS TO REMAIN QUITE STUBBORN...AND AS
A RESULT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE A LOT. FOR
HIGHS...UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY BUT WENT A LITTLE BIT WARMER
THAN THE COOL MET.
MODELS ARE AGAIN PAINTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THINK IT MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH LOW
CLOUDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST
AREA. REDUCED POPS TONIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO
TAKE MENTION OUT WITH FUTURE PACKAGES. WITH FAIRLY WARM MOIST AIR
MASS LINGERING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...HAVE RAISED LOWS A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SIDED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. REALLY NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE ON MONDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CWA...AND HAVE BEGUN THE
TREND OF LOWERING POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT THERE. DYNAMICS
REMAIN FAIRLY BROAD AND UNFOCUSED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CWA WIDE. BY MONDAY NIGHT....FORECAST AREA
BECOMES POSITIONED IN THE LEFT FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
AND WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH...MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION TRY TO
WORK IN THE CWA. NEAR THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE AIR IS COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...NOT SURE IT IS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
AND BY THE TIME IT DOES...THE DYNAMICS HAVE PULLED WAY OFF TO THE
EAST. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS AT THAT POINT ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FOCUS FURTHER TO THE EAST...SO ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. AS COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CHANGE OVER TO HUG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...AIR MASS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD BE A STRUGGLE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AND ONLY HAVE A RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW MENTION WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NAM IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF ON TUESDAY...BUT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT QUICKLY DIE AWAY WITH LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS
QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUIT. MAY SEE SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...AND
WITH VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SNOW EXPECTED...HAVE WARMED HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH ALONG BACK EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DOWN A SHORT LIVED SHOT OF COOLER AIR. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILL READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S...A STARK CONTRAST TO THE MILD READINGS WE HAVE
SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 221026
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
425 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS AND 3-5SM FOG EXTENDING FROM YANKTON TO
BROOKINGS AND AREAS TO THE EAST. ALSO SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
FUNNELING DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
RADIATIONAL FOG TO LIFT AND GRADUALLY CLEAR AS FRONT SHIFTS EAST AND
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...EXPECT THE LOW LYING CLOUDS TO REMAIN QUITE STUBBORN...AND AS
A RESULT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE A LOT. FOR
HIGHS...UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY BUT WENT A LITTLE BIT WARMER
THAN THE COOL MET.
MODELS ARE AGAIN PAINTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THINK IT MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH LOW
CLOUDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST
AREA. REDUCED POPS TONIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO
TAKE MENTION OUT WITH FUTURE PACKAGES. WITH FAIRLY WARM MOIST AIR
MASS LINGERING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...HAVE RAISED LOWS A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SIDED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. REALLY NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE ON MONDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CWA...AND HAVE BEGUN THE
TREND OF LOWERING POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT THERE. DYNAMICS
REMAIN FAIRLY BROAD AND UNFOCUSED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CWA WIDE. BY MONDAY NIGHT....FORECAST AREA
BECOMES POSITIONED IN THE LEFT FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
AND WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH...MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION TRY TO
WORK IN THE CWA. NEAR THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE AIR IS COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...NOT SURE IT IS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
AND BY THE TIME IT DOES...THE DYNAMICS HAVE PULLED WAY OFF TO THE
EAST. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS AT THAT POINT ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FOCUS FURTHER TO THE EAST...SO ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. AS COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CHANGE OVER TO HUG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...AIR MASS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD BE A STRUGGLE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AND ONLY HAVE A RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW MENTION WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NAM IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF ON TUESDAY...BUT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT QUICKLY DIE AWAY WITH LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS
QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUIT. MAY SEE SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...AND
WITH VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SNOW EXPECTED...HAVE WARMED HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH ALONG BACK EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DOWN A SHORT LIVED SHOT OF COOLER AIR. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILL READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S...A STARK CONTRAST TO THE MILD READINGS WE HAVE
SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE PROBLEMATIC AVN WISE THIS MORNING...WITH A WIDE
VARIETY OF CIGS AND VIS. IN GENERAL...THERE WL BE A LOT OF IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS MORNING TO CONTEND WITH. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT OBS...UPSTREAM OBS...AND NAM/GFS LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS. STRATUS WL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP NWD...BASICALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A TYNDALL SD...TO BROOKINGS SD LINE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER EVEN WEST OF THIS LINE...LOCAL VLIFR CONDS WL BE FOUND IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH RADIATIONAL FOG PROBLEMS...AS THERE IS
ONLY CIRRUS COVERING THOSE LOCATIONS. SINCE THE RADIATIONAL FOG IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW...IT SHOULD BE A MEMORY BY MID MORNING IN THE JAMES.
THIS AFTERNOON...RH FIELDS SUGGEST PRIMARILY VFR CONDS IN THE SIOUX
FALLS FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING MVFR CONDS.
HOWEVER TONIGHT...ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDS TO REDEVELOP. /MJF
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 221026 RRA
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
425 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS AND 3-5SM FOG EXTENDING FROM YANKTON TO
BROOKINGS AND AREAS TO THE EAST. ALSO SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
FUNNELING DOWN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
RADIATIONAL FOG TO LIFT AND GRADUALLY CLEAR AS FRONT SHIFTS EAST AND
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...EXPECT THE LOW LYING CLOUDS TO REMAIN QUITE STUBBORN...AND AS
A RESULT TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GOING TO MOVE A LOT. FOR
HIGHS...UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY BUT WENT A LITTLE BIT WARMER
THAN THE COOL MET.
MODELS ARE AGAIN PAINTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THINK IT MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH LOW
CLOUDS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...THOUGH THE
BULK OF THE FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST
AREA. REDUCED POPS TONIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AND MAY BE ABLE TO
TAKE MENTION OUT WITH FUTURE PACKAGES. WITH FAIRLY WARM MOIST AIR
MASS LINGERING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29...HAVE RAISED LOWS A
FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SIDED WITH A BLEND OF
THE NAM...ECMWF AND GEM FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. REALLY NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY TO SPEAK OF IN TERMS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE ON MONDAY...THOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 AS
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF DYNAMICS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CWA...AND HAVE BEGUN THE
TREND OF LOWERING POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT THERE. DYNAMICS
REMAIN FAIRLY BROAD AND UNFOCUSED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE CWA WIDE. BY MONDAY NIGHT....FORECAST AREA
BECOMES POSITIONED IN THE LEFT FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
AND WITH UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH...MAY SEE SOME PRECIPITATION TRY TO
WORK IN THE CWA. NEAR THE SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH TYPE FEATURE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE AIR IS COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...NOT SURE IT IS COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
AND BY THE TIME IT DOES...THE DYNAMICS HAVE PULLED WAY OFF TO THE
EAST. EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY EVENING. DYNAMICS AT THAT POINT ARE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A FOCUS FURTHER TO THE EAST...SO ANY SNOW
THAT FALLS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. AS COLD AIR SHIFTS EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT CHANGE OVER TO HUG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER TO THE
EAST...AIR MASS REMAINS WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD BE A STRUGGLE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AND ONLY HAVE A RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW MENTION WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NAM IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF ON TUESDAY...BUT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT QUICKLY DIE AWAY WITH LOWER LEVEL DYNAMICS
QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUIT. MAY SEE SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...AND
WITH VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SNOW EXPECTED...HAVE WARMED HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY OUT WEST.
SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH ALONG BACK EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DOWN A SHORT LIVED SHOT OF COOLER AIR. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILL READINGS
DOWN INTO THE 20S...A STARK CONTRAST TO THE MILD READINGS WE HAVE
SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE PROBLEMATIC AVN WISE THIS MORNING...WITH A WIDE
VARIETY OF CIGS AND VIS. IN GENERAL...THERE WL BE A LOT OF IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS MORNING TO CONTEND WITH. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY CURRENT OBS...UPSTREAM OBS...AND NAM/GFS LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS. STRATUS WL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP NWD...BASICALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A TYNDALL SD...TO BROOKINGS SD LINE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER EVEN WEST OF THIS LINE...LOCAL VLIFR CONDS WL BE FOUND IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH RADIATIONAL FOG PROBLEMS...AS THERE IS
ONLY CIRRUS COVERING THOSE LOCATIONS. SINCE THE RADIATIONAL FOG IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW...IT SHOULD BE A MEMORY BY MID MORNING IN THE JAMES.
THIS AFTERNOON...RH FIELDS SUGGEST PRIMARILY VFR CONDS IN THE SIOUX
FALLS FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING MVFR CONDS.
HOWEVER TONIGHT...ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO
MVFR CONDS TO REDEVELOP. /MJF
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KUNR 221002
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
302 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN
ND INTO SOUTHWEST KS. WEAK RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE CWA. UPPER
TROUGH SLIPPING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF MT/WY/CO...WITH 90KT
JET STREAK CREATING SOME RETURNS ON KUDX WSR-88D. GIVEN SURFACE
T/TD SPREADS AND 00Z KUNR SOUNDING...LITTLE IF ANYTHING REACHING
GROUND. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST.
TONIGHT...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH RACES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH MAIN JET STREAM STARTING TO FORM MAIN WAVE IN SOUTHERN WY/NE.
COULD BE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST.
MONDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS UPPER LOW CLOSING OVER SOUTHERN NE.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES
WEST TO EAST. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH BEST
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/MOISTURE COMBINE.
SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO IA/SD/NE BORDER.
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDY AREAS BEHIND THE LOW.
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST AS YET ANOTHER WAVE
DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TAIL END OF WAVE/TROUGH WILL BRING
SMALL CHANCES FOR -SHSN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED...QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE INTO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE AREA. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR...THOUGH SOME LCL MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN
WY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
HELGESON/SCHILD
000
FXUS63 KABR 220958
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
358 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOG HAS FORMED IN THE JAMES VALLEY AS THIS AREA HAS BEEN
IN THE TROUGH AXIS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. STRONG
INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED AND THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
LEFT IN THE VERY LOWEST LEVELS. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED TO 1/4SM AT ABR
AND HON BUT FOG IS VERY SHALLOW. EXPECTING IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS IN LEOLA AND FAULKTON ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LESS THAN AIR
TEMPS AND THIS DRIER AIR IS MOVING EAST. THE LOWER CLOUDS MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS HAVE MATERIALIZED ACROSS MN AND FAR
EASTERN SD. CIGS AT 600FT IN ATY AND BKX. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS THE DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST.
LOW PRESSURE STILL SET TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...MOVING EAST INTO IOWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF RAIN...DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THERMAL
PROFILES THROUGHOUT THIS STORM SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST...A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
TIMES WITH ALL SNOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BUT...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
IT APPEARS FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF LONG TERM MODEL RUNS THAT A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...AND SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART THE MODELS
ARE SIMILAR EXCEPT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. ONE DECENT WAVE
DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH COLD AIR ALOFT COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS BOTH PERIODS. AFTER THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A SLOW WARM-UP LATER IN THE WEEK.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS AIR MOSTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN DOMINATES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SLOW MOVING SFC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST THIS
MORNING...WITH IFR CIGS AND OR VSBYS IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER BY
LATE MORNING THOSE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD HAVE LIFTED...GIVING
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KFSD 220306
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
850 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGE TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE EXTENT OF STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY SITUATED OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF THE FEATURE...EVIDENCED BY RISING DEWPOINTS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A WEAK INVERSION IN PLACE...EXPECTING LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RATHER SLOW TO FALL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
WINDS NOT FALLING OFF AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...BUT WITH
EXPECTATION OF SLOWLY DECREASING WINDS WITH DECOUPLING AND A
LESSENING GRADIENT IN THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH...STILL THINK
THAT LOWS ARE ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. MINOR UPDATES OUT. /JM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION ON
STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PATCHES OF STRATOCU PUSHING NORTH A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SOME OF THE LEADING STRATOCU
MAY STILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH MORE WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
STRATUS WORKING INTO FAR SOUTHERN CWA BY 03Z-04Z. AREAS DRIZZLE/FOG
STILL SEEM A DECENT POSSIBILITY OVER EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS BENEATH LAYER OF WEAK LIFT/WARM
ADVECTION. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDING NORTH INTO THE AREA...THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
JAMES VALLEY BY 12Z...AND HAVE BUMPED LOWS UP CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE
VALUES. /JH
WEAKENING CDFNT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD INTO CWA SUN WITH SSWLY FLOW OF
RELATIVELY MILD MOIST AIR AHEAD OF IT...SO KEPT THE LWR CLOUDS AND
SMALL CHC OF -RA/DZ IN THE SERN HLF OF CWA INTO THE AFTN. STG UPR
TROF DIGS INTO RCKYS MON DRIVEN BY STG JET ON BACKSIDE...AND WILL
PROBABLY BE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...CLOSER TO ECMWF AND
CANADIAN. GFS ALSO TOO FAR NORTH WITH UPR LVL CYCLOGENESIS THRU MON
NGT AND TUE. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BACK UP TO THE NW THRU MON AS
INVERTED SFC TROF DVLPS FM ERN SD TO ERN NE THRU MON NGT. CHC OF -RA
MAINLY NERN HLF CWA LATER SUN NGT THRU MON MRNG WITH WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE RETURN. MAIN RAIN SHOULD DVLP WEST OF INVERTED TROF IN
WRN CWA MON AFTN AND SPREAD EAST AT NIGHT. DYNAMIC COOLING FROM
ALOFT WILL LIKELY CHANGE RAIN TO WET SNOW JAMES VALLEY WEST MON NGT
SPREADING EAST AS FAR AS I29...THEN MOVG EWD THRU TUE WITH UPR LOW.
SPEEDED UP TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER BASED ON FASTER MODELS.
POTENTIAL THERE FOR SOME HEAVY WET SNOW ESP FM LOWER JAMES VALLEY
NEWD THRU SERN SD TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN MN THRU TUE AND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HPC SEEMS TO HAVE A LIT BIT OF A EAST BIAS ATTM
AS MAIN WRAPAROUND AND COOLING STILL APPEARS TO BE WEST. ANOTHER
WAVE WITH BRING A CHC -SHSN MAIN ERN CWA WED WITH FURTHER COLD
ADVECTION...SO KEPT IT ON THE COLD SIDE WED THRU THU. NIGHTTIME LOWS
SHOULD BE PRETTY COLD WRN CWA WED NGT AND NRN AND ERN CWA THU NGT
WITH OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING NEAR APPROACHING COLD AND DRY SFC
RIDGE. AIR MASS SHOULD MODIFY WITH RETURN SLY FLOW REST OF EXTD./ RSR
&&
.AVIATION...
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR-LOCALLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED INTO KSUX AREA AFTER 04Z...SPREADING
NORTH ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CIGS LIKELY
TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY
EAST OF KMML-KFSD-KYKN LINE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH AREAS
MVFR-LOCALLY IFR VSBYS IN -DZ/BR. /JH
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KABR 220246
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
846 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FROM THE JAMES RIVER EAST. THIS IS THE AREA
WITH A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED WIND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
MIXED. OVER NIGHT LOW STILL LOOKS GOOD SO NO CHANGES OTHER THAN
ADJUSTMENTS TO RATE OF FALL WILL LIKELY BE MADE TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS WORKING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST ZONES. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH
WINDS HAVE BEEN COMBINING WITH THE NOVEMBER SUNSHINE TO PUMP UP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...RELAXING SURFACE WINDS...WHILE TURNING THEM AROUND TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN UPPER LOW OF INTEREST IN
THE SHORT RANGE OF THE FORECAST IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
PAC NW ON SUNDAY. SO...THOSE NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND HEAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. DURING THIS TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES
TO THE PLAINS STATES...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN. WHILE DOING SO...THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO SATURATE ENOUGH
TO GET SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. MAINTAINED THE LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST ZONES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD...BUT THEN INCREASED THEM TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND FORCING WILL MAKE IT ALOT EASIER TO
PRODUCE FULL SATURATION AND GROUND-REACHING PRECIPITATION. THAT
EMPHASIS ON PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
FORECAST ZONES APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINED NOW BY JUST ABOUT ALL THE
MODELS. AGAIN...THE THERMAL PROFILE SEEMS TO SUPPORT A MAINLY RAIN
EVENT...PERHAPS STARTING OUT AS A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SNOW OUT WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND BEFORE IT CAN EFFECTIVELY WORK TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. BY MONDAY...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IS DEFINITELY SWITCHING OVER TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH RAIN THE PRIMARY P-TYPE. MONDAY NIGHT...AS
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WORK SOUTH AND EAST OUT
OF THIS AREA...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND MAY SWITCH
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IN SPOTS. CURRENTLY MAINTAINING UP TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOW
GRIDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA /APPX THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION/. TEMPERATURES WILL SWITCH OVER TO
COOLER READINGS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE AND
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY...THEN A SECONDARY
LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS HOLDS ENERGY MORE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MOVES
THE WAVE OUT ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG
RIDGING THAT WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT AT THIS POINT AS THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES
A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS DIFFER ON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO AS HIGH AS 800 MB...AND THE GFS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FALLING BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR
THAT REASON...WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AS A MENTION
OF RAIN OR SNOW. WILL KEEP A SCHC POP FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME...A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AROUND...SO WILL NOT MENTION
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
NOSE BACK OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT ON SATURDAY.
H85 TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WHEN WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IS
SHOWING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH BUT THEY ARE MORE THAN 12K FT AGL. VISIBILITY IS
UNRESTRICTED AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KEEFE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...KEEFE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KUNR 212251
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
248 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A LEADING N/S ORIENTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
CROSSING WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SFC
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE
PRESENT TO INCLUDE LOW POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR GUIDANCE.
ON MONDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN MODEL HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. 00Z NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTH AND EAST...WITH
THE GFS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WILL GO WITH
MODEL TRENDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WILL KEEP BEST PRECIPITATION AWAY
FROM THE CWA...BUT WILL STILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
ZONES.
EXTENDED...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA. GEM AND ECMWF
ALSO LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EXPECT RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT
WEEK. RMOP INDICATES HIGH PREDICTABILITY WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 212221
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
420 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO THE REGION ON
STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PATCHES OF STRATOCU PUSHING NORTH A BIT FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SOME OF THE LEADING STRATOCU
MAY STILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH MORE WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT
STRATUS WORKING INTO FAR SOUTHERN CWA BY 03Z-04Z. AREAS DRIZZLE/FOG
STILL SEEM A DECENT POSSIBILITY OVER EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS BENEATH LAYER OF WEAK LIFT/WARM
ADVECTION. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EXPANDING NORTH INTO THE AREA...THINK TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
JAMES VALLEY BY 12Z...AND HAVE BUMPED LOWS UP CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE
VALUES. /JH
WEAKENING CDFNT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD INTO CWA SUN WITH SSWLY FLOW OF
RELATIVELY MILD MOIST AIR AHEAD OF IT...SO KEPT THE LWR CLOUDS AND
SMALL CHC OF -RA/DZ IN THE SERN HLF OF CWA INTO THE AFTN. STG UPR
TROF DIGS INTO RCKYS MON DRIVEN BY STG JET ON BACKSIDE...AND WILL
PROBABLY BE STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN GFS...CLOSER TO ECMWF AND
CANADIAN. GFS ALSO TOO FAR NORTH WITH UPR LVL CYCLOGENESIS THRU MON
NGT AND TUE. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BACK UP TO THE NW THRU MON AS
INVERTED SFC TROF DVLPS FM ERN SD TO ERN NE THRU MON NGT. CHC OF -RA
MAINLY NERN HLF CWA LATER SUN NGT THRU MON MRNG WITH WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE RETURN. MAIN RAIN SHOULD DVLP WEST OF INVERTED TROF IN
WRN CWA MON AFTN AND SPREAD EAST AT NIGHT. DYNAMIC COOLING FROM
ALOFT WILL LIKELY CHANGE RAIN TO WET SNOW JAMES VALLEY WEST MON NGT
SPREADING EAST AS FAR AS I29...THEN MOVG EWD THRU TUE WITH UPR LOW.
SPEEDED UP TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER BASED ON FASTER MODELS.
POTENTIAL THERE FOR SOME HEAVY WET SNOW ESP FM LOWER JAMES VALLEY
NEWD THRU SERN SD TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN MN THRU TUE AND WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED. HPC SEEMS TO HAVE A LIT BIT OF A EAST BIAS ATTM
AS MAIN WRAPAROUND AND COOLING STILL APPEARS TO BE WEST. ANOTHER
WAVE WITH BRING A CHC -SHSN MAIN ERN CWA WED WITH FURTHER COLD
ADVECTION...SO KEPT IT ON THE COLD SIDE WED THRU THU. NIGHTTIME LOWS
SHOULD BE PRETTY COLD WRN CWA WED NGT AND NRN AND ERN CWA THU NGT
WITH OPTIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING NEAR APPROACHING COLD AND DRY SFC
RIDGE. AIR MASS SHOULD MODIFY WITH RETURN SLY FLOW REST OF EXTD./ RSR
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF MVFR STRATOCU MOVING THORUGH SOUTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR-LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED INTO KSUX AREA
AFTER 02Z/03Z...SPREADING NORTH ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29
THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF KMML-KFSD-KYKN LINE THROUGH
00Z MONDAY...WITH AREAS MVFR-LOCALLY IFR VSBYS IN -DZ/BR. /JH
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KUNR 212148
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
248 PM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A LEADING N/S ORIENTED TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
CROSSING WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SFC
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE
PRESENT TO INCLUDE LOW POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR GUIDANCE.
ON MONDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN MODEL HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. 00Z NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTH AND EAST...WITH
THE GFS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WILL GO WITH
MODEL TRENDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WILL KEEP BEST PRECIPITATION AWAY
FROM THE CWA...BUT WILL STILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
ZONES.
EXTENDED...UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAN AND SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA. GEM AND ECMWF
ALSO LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EXPECT RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATE NEXT
WEEK. RMOP INDICATES HIGH PREDICTABILITY WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KABR 212042
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
242 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS WORKING SLOWLY INTO THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST ZONES. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH
WINDS HAVE BEEN COMBINING WITH THE NOVEMBER SUNSHINE TO PUMP UP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THIS COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...RELAXING SURFACE WINDS...WHILE TURNING THEM AROUND TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN UPPER LOW OF INTEREST IN
THE SHORT RANGE OF THE FORECAST IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
PAC NW ON SUNDAY. SO...THOSE NW WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THEY WILL RESIDE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND HEAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. DURING THIS TRANSITION FROM THE ROCKIES
TO THE PLAINS STATES...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN. WHILE DOING SO...THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO SATURATE ENOUGH
TO GET SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND OUT ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. MAINTAINED THE LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST ZONES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD...BUT THEN INCREASED THEM TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF
MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND FORCING WILL MAKE IT ALOT EASIER TO
PRODUCE FULL SATURATION AND GROUND-REACHING PRECIPITATION. THAT
EMPHASIS ON PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
FORECAST ZONES APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINED NOW BY JUST ABOUT ALL THE
MODELS. AGAIN...THE THERMAL PROFILE SEEMS TO SUPPORT A MAINLY RAIN
EVENT...PERHAPS STARTING OUT AS A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING RAIN OR
SNOW OUT WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND BEFORE IT CAN EFFECTIVELY WORK TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. BY MONDAY...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IS DEFINITELY SWITCHING OVER TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH RAIN THE PRIMARY P-TYPE. MONDAY NIGHT...AS
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WORK SOUTH AND EAST OUT
OF THIS AREA...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND MAY SWITCH
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW
IN SPOTS. CURRENTLY MAINTAINING UP TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE SNOW
GRIDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA /APPX THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION/. TEMPERATURES WILL SWITCH OVER TO
COOLER READINGS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE AND
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY...THEN A SECONDARY
LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS HOLDS ENERGY MORE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MOVES
THE WAVE OUT ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. STRONG
RIDGING THAT WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES SLIDES OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT AT THIS POINT AS THE GFS DROPS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES
A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL TIME SECTIONS DIFFER ON
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH THE NAM KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO AS HIGH AS 800 MB...AND THE GFS SHOWING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FALLING BELOW FREEZING ON TUESDAY. FOR
THAT REASON...WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AS A MENTION
OF RAIN OR SNOW. WILL KEEP A SCHC POP FOR SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS THE SECONDARY UPPER WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.
THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO BROADEN EASTWARD
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGH REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. AT THAT TIME...A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AROUND...SO WILL NOT MENTION
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
NOSE BACK OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT ON SATURDAY.
H85 TEMPS REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY WHEN WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. GENERALLY LOOKING AT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST
DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET. MAY SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS STREAM OVER THE
FAR EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY
AFFECTING KATY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KUNR 211746
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1046 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A LEADING TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A COOL FRONT EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NEAR KGCC IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. A BAND
OF CIRRUS WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
FRONT HAS CREATED WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND TO ADJUST THE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
WY. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT NEAR LOW WITH GUSTY WINDS IN WY AND
PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS ABOVE THE INVERSION. WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 600 AM. FOR TODAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST DRAGGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...WASHING
OUT LATE. MOST HIGHS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH SLIPS THROUGH.
HAVE DROPPED POPS GIVEN DRY NATURE OF LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
SUNDAY...VERY TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL GIVE WAY
TO FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS
SOUTH WITH RETURN FLOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DRY
DURING THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE PRESENT FOR LOW POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
MONDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
00Z NAM/ECMWF/GEM TRENDING SOUTH AND EAST. 00Z GFS MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. WILL GO WITH MODEL TRENDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WILL KEEP
BEST PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE CWA.
EXTENDED...AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS DEPARTURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. GFS BRINGS NEXT WAVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED LOW POPS
TO THE EASTERN/NRN CWFA. RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN FOR MID-WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 211603
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1002 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. VALLEY AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST
CWA SLOWER TO SEE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS
HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS. LOWEST VISIBILITY FOG JUST SKIRTED BY THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. ANOTHER AREA OF FOG IN WESTERN IOWA
TRYING TO WORK NORTH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST CORNER...THOUGH NOW FIGHTING
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH FULL SUNSHINE SO THINK IT WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY MAKING ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS. STRATUS FARTHER WEST WILL
BE STREAMING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FASTER PROGRESS OF THIS INTO SOUTHERN CWA. SIMILAR TO THE FOG
THOUGH...NORTHERN END SEEMS TO BE ERODING A BIT SO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK. HOWEVER...IF STRATUS DOES
WORK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS...COULD HAVE DIFFICULTY REACHING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S. WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF INCREASED MIXING HELPS
OVERCOME...BUT NO UPDATES TO GOING ZFP PLANNED FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY...CONDS WL BE VFR THRU TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET...WITH MVFR-LOCALLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED
INTO KSUX AREA AFTER 02Z/03Z...SPREADING NORTH ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 THROUGH 09Z. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF KMML-KFSD-KYKN
LINE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPLIT JET ACROSS
THE US. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS POISED JUST SOUTH
OF FORECAST AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
IOWA. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE...EXPECT MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. WITH 925 HPA TEMP
WARMING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. COULD SEE A FEW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HAZE THIS AFTERNOON
TRICKLE INTO NORTHWEST IOWA WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT DO NOT
THINK THIS WILL HAMPER WARMING TOO MUCH. WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY FUELS...WILL ISSUE
RANGE LAND FIRE STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS BECOMES SATURATED FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS IOWA EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND 900 MB OR SO...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA EXPAND NORTH AND WEST
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE...BUT WITH LACK OF
STRONG LIFT AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ABOVE THE SATURATED
LAYER....KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...EASTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN RIGHT REAR OF UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. WHILE THE JET STREAK IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. FLOW
REALLY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO SHAKE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE ISOTHERMAL FROM 925 MB IN THE EAST...WHILE
EXPECT DEEPER MIXING TO THE WEST.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH TO SET UP AND AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP IN
TERMS OF A TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...00Z NAM...00Z ECMWF
AND 00Z CANADIAN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING THIS SYSTEM
WEST OF UPPER MIDWEST TAKING THE CRUX OF THE WAVE SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. GFS IS NOT AS QUICK TO DIG THE SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT BRINGS
THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW..SIDED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN. MODELS PORTEND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. NOT REALLY A GREAT
FOCUSING MECHANISM...SO FOR NOW...JUST LEFT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE.
AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...EXPECT A WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES AND AS A RESULT IN
PRECIP TYPES. APPEARS AS THOUGH BEST DYNAMICS MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND BEHIND OF INVERTED TROUGH...AND HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS THERE.
TRIED TO USE TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM THE NAM IN A TOP DOWN
FORECASTING METHOD OF PRECIP TYPE...HOWEVER...THAT RESULTED IN A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE ONE
CAN NOT RULE OUT FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SET UP...BELIEVE IT WOULD
BE MORE OF A TRANSITIONARY PRECIP TYPE AS OPPOSED TO A PREDOMINANT
TYPE AND THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTERS ASSESSMENT THAT BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SHIFTING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. /BT
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
JH
000
FXUS63 KABR 211554 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
954 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.UPDATE...
JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A 250HPA JET-STREAK STREAMING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE
TODAY PERIOD FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR SOME
OF THIS THICKER CIRRUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND TODAY...AND TO
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO ENSURE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUST TO 40 MPH WORDING SHOWED UP...SINCE THE RUC SHOWS 35 TO 40
KNOT WINDS AT APPX 1000FT OFF THE SURFACE. WOULD THINK THAT
DAYTIME MIXING AND THE FORMIDABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA WOULD BEGIN TAPPING INTO SOME OF THOSE STRONG WINDS BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TODAY WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 925/850
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
BE THIS HIGH. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. AFTER MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S TODAY...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK DOWN
INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY BUT BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION
IN MN SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WHICH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GFS REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH OF ALL
MODELS AND IS QUICKER...BUT HAS SHOWN A NOTICEABLE TREND TO THE
SOUTH...TRYING TO COME IN LINE MORE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT EC
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE ALWAYS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH. THE
NEW 00Z EC IS EVEN A TAD FURTHER SOUTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN BUT
WHATS INTERESTING IS THAT IT HAS DEVELOPED A MORE PRONOUNCED
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH NOSES NORTHWARD ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER. THIS
COULD SPELL OUT DECENT PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR NORTH...EVEN THOUGH
MAIN SFC LOW IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN TO
START OFF...THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE NOT MADE REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
WX/POPS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN STILL APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE LONG TERM. ALL MODELS STILL PRODUCE A DECENT LOOKING YET
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH OF ALL
DETERMINISTIC 00Z RUNS. MEANWHILE THE GEM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
GFS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...FELT THAT THE BEST
POLICY WAS TO STAY SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE INHERITED SOLUTION. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST PCPN PROBABILITIES WILL
EXIST OVER THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY/SISSETON HILLS WHERE AN INVERTED
TROF MAY HANG OUT FOR 24 HOURS OR MORE. TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY
MODIFIED SLIGHTLY AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST LONG RANGE TEMP PROGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15K
FEET STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL BE COMMON DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO
LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KFSD 211015
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
410 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPLIT JET ACROSS
THE US. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE RESULTING IN FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FAIRLY MOIST AIR MASS POISED JUST SOUTH
OF FORECAST AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
IOWA. AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE...EXPECT MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 29. WITH 925 HPA TEMP
WARMING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. COULD SEE A FEW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR HAZE THIS AFTERNOON
TRICKLE INTO NORTHWEST IOWA WITH INCREASE IN MOISTURE...BUT DO NOT
THINK THIS WILL HAMPER WARMING TOO MUCH. WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY FUELS...WILL ISSUE
RANGE LAND FIRE STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY.
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS BECOMES SATURATED FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS IOWA EXPANDING BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT.
SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO AROUND 900 MB OR SO...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA EXPAND NORTH AND WEST
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE...BUT WITH LACK OF
STRONG LIFT AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ABOVE THE SATURATED
LAYER....KEPT POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY...EASTERN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN RIGHT REAR OF UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. WHILE THE JET STREAK IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INDUCE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. FLOW
REALLY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY...AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...MAY BE A STRUGGLE TO SHAKE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE ISOTHERMAL FROM 925 MB IN THE EAST...WHILE
EXPECT DEEPER MIXING TO THE WEST.
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH TO SET UP AND AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE MAP IN
TERMS OF A TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...00Z NAM...00Z ECMWF
AND 00Z CANADIAN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING THIS SYSTEM
WEST OF UPPER MIDWEST TAKING THE CRUX OF THE WAVE SOUTH OF FORECAST
AREA. GFS IS NOT AS QUICK TO DIG THE SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT BRINGS
THE SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW..SIDED CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN. MODELS PORTEND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. NOT REALLY A GREAT
FOCUSING MECHANISM...SO FOR NOW...JUST LEFT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE.
AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...EXPECT A WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES AND AS A RESULT IN
PRECIP TYPES. APPEARS AS THOUGH BEST DYNAMICS MAY BE FOCUSED ALONG
AND BEHIND OF INVERTED TROUGH...AND HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS THERE.
TRIED TO USE TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM THE NAM IN A TOP DOWN
FORECASTING METHOD OF PRECIP TYPE...HOWEVER...THAT RESULTED IN A
FAIR AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE ONE
CAN NOT RULE OUT FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SET UP...BELIEVE IT WOULD
BE MORE OF A TRANSITIONARY PRECIP TYPE AS OPPOSED TO A PREDOMINANT
TYPE AND THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTERS ASSESSMENT THAT BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SHIFTING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. /BT
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY...CONDS WL BE VFR THRU TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE
EXCEPTION WL BE THIS MORNING...WHERE AREAS OF MVFR VIS WL OCCUR THRU
15Z MOSTLY EAST OF I 29. WATCHING THE MORE DENSE FOG LIFT NORTH TO
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING FM SW IA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS AROUND STORM LAKE IA MAY GET CLIPPED WITH CONDS OF LIFR EARLY
TODAY. BUT AGAIN...IF THOSE CONDS OCCUR...THEY SHOULD BE CONFINED
ONLY TO THE SE CORNER OF THE FSD FORECAST AREA. /MJF
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KABR 210950
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
350 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
TODAY WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 925/850
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
BE THIS HIGH. THE COLD FRONT TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. AFTER MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 50S TODAY...HIGHS WILL DROP BACK DOWN
INTO THE 40S FOR SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY BUT BEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION
IN MN SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WHICH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GFS REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH OF ALL
MODELS AND IS QUICKER...BUT HAS SHOWN A NOTICEABLE TREND TO THE
SOUTH...TRYING TO COME IN LINE MORE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT EC
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE ALWAYS BEEN FURTHER SOUTH. THE
NEW 00Z EC IS EVEN A TAD FURTHER SOUTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN BUT
WHATS INTERESTING IS THAT IT HAS DEVELOPED A MORE PRONOUNCED
INVERTED TROUGH WHICH NOSES NORTHWARD ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER. THIS
COULD SPELL OUT DECENT PRECIP CHANCES THIS FAR NORTH...EVEN THOUGH
MAIN SFC LOW IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. THERMAL PROFILES STILL SUGGEST MOSTLY RAIN TO
START OFF...THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE NOT MADE REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
WX/POPS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN STILL APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE LONG TERM. ALL MODELS STILL PRODUCE A DECENT LOOKING YET
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH OF ALL
DETERMINISTIC 00Z RUNS. MEANWHILE THE GEM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE
GFS. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...FELT THAT THE BEST
POLICY WAS TO STAY SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE INHERITED SOLUTION. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST PCPN PROBABILITIES WILL
EXIST OVER THE BIG SIOUX VALLEY/SISSETON HILLS WHERE AN INVERTED
TROF MAY HANG OUT FOR 24 HOURS OR MORE. TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY
MODIFIED SLIGHTLY AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST LONG RANGE TEMP PROGS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH TODAY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH BLUSTERY WINDS
WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KUNR 210943
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN
WY. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT NEAR LOW WITH GUSTY WINDS IN WY AND
PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS ABOVE THE INVERSION. WILL LEAVE
ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 600 AM. FOR TODAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST DRAGGING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...WASHING
OUT LATE. MOST HIGHS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING WITH WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH SLIPS THROUGH.
HAVE DROPPED POPS GIVEN DRY NATURE OF LOWER TROPOSPHERE.
SUNDAY...VERY TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA WILL GIVE WAY
TO FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS
SOUTH WITH RETURN FLOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DRY
DURING THE DAY...BUT ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE PRESENT FOR LOW POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE.
MONDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODEL HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
00Z NAM/ECMWF/GEM TRENDING SOUTH AND EAST. 00Z GFS MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. WILL GO WITH MODEL TRENDS AT THIS POINT...WHICH WILL KEEP
BEST PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE CWA.
EXTENDED...AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS DEPARTURE ON
TUESDAY...WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. GFS BRINGS NEXT WAVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. THEREFORE...HAVE LIMITED LOW POPS
TO THE EASTERN/NRN CWFA. RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN FOR MID-WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NRN AND NERN FOOTHILLS OF
THE BLKHLS AND OVER NERN WY WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN
FOOT HILLS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
HELGESON/SCHILD
000
FXUS63 KUNR 210339
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
839 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE. OVERALL...FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AS CIRRUS
SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS...AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. INVERSION WILL KEEP THE
WINDS FROM AFFECTING SFC WINDS AT KRAP...THOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ADDED TO TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 40KT WINDS AT 2000FT AGL. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009/
DISCUSSION...21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LEE SIDE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER ALBERTA INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND
EASTERN COLORADO. UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH
MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TONIGHT.
FORECAST WINDS ALOFT SHOW THAT GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLACK HILLS
TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY MIDDAY...THEN CROSSING THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS IN THE WEST NEAREST BEST
FORCING.
ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW IN THE
WEST. NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE REGION FOR LOW POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER SUNDAY...A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED...GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON SWINGING
TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA ON MONDAY. ECMWF AND GEM OPERATIONAL RUNS
ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THESE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF AND GEM RUNS DIVERGE
FROM GFS GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WRAPPING UP AN UPPER LOW ALONG
THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. RMOP INDICATING LOWER PREDICTABILITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ATTM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS DOWN
ACROSS THE CWA UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. NEITHER GEM NOR ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.
SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINTING TO THIS SOLUTION...SO WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT THE CWA WILL
BE DRY GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS63 KFSD 210241
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
830 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY IN OUR EAST THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS NEARLY CALM...AND HAD TO DROP MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADY OUT OR EVEN A RISE
A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS PICKING UP IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...AND
HIGH TO MID CLOUDS ROUNDING THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. MINOR UPDATES
OUT WITH NO CHANGE TO ZFP. /JM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST. WENT
WITH NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER AS
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE STEADILY. EVEN HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING
A LITTLE TOWARDS 12Z IN THE FAR EAST. OTHERWISE...DECREASED LOWS A
LITTLE FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 29 EAST WITH LIGHT FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 TO THE LOWER 30S WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
SATURDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE A MILD BUT BREEZY DAY AS WINDS INCREASE
TO SOMETHING AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH ON A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT.
MOISTURE ALSO SET TO INCREASE ALONG INCOMING LLJ SO HAVE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUIET A BIT OF
MOISTURE RETURN JUST OFF THE SFC AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
HIGHER DEW POINT AIR IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
ENTRANCE REGION TO A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON BETTER CHANCES UNTIL SUNDAY. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AS THE UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES THE DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. LOWS WILL BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE...AND SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN NW IA TO
30 TO 35 IN CENTRAL SD.
AS STATED EARLIER...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOWER END POPS IN THE EAST
FOR A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH INCOMING WEAK ENTRANCE REGION AND WEAK
MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT DECREASE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. A
LITTLE COOLER BUT A LOT LESS WIND SO STILL MILD...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. /08
HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER SOME HINT OF A DYNAMIC DOWNTIME
AFTER WAVE SHEARS BY TO THE NORTHEAST...THE TRAILING SYSTEM STARTS
TO INCREASE LOW LVL FLOW AGAIN WITH ISENTROPIC TRANSPORT INCREASING
THRU THE CWA FROM S TO N. A LITTLE LOWER TO MID LVL CONVERGENCE
AXIS LOOKS TO SET UP FROM SW TO NE ACRS THE AREA LIFTING SLOWLY
NE...AND ENOUGH TO PERHAPS FOCUS A SMALL POP LATER IN THE NIGHT.
THE INCREASING SELY FLOW...CLOUDS...AND MOISTURE LKLY TO KEEP TMPS
WARM ENOUGH AT TIME OF PCPN THREAT FOR ALL RAIN...BUT ANY QUICKER
APPROACH WOULD PERHAPS BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE MIX.
MONDAY GETS SOME BETTER DIV Q IN THE MIX ADVANCING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. MAIN MID LVL
BNDRY/CONVERGENCE STARTS TO LOCK INTO THE NRN/SWRN CWA...AND WOULD
SEEM TO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS FOR MID TO HIGH CHC POPS. START
TO LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE SOMEWHAT MORE WITH HIGH AMT OF CLDS.
FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE /MON NIGHT THRU FRI/ ALMOST FUNNY HOW CHANGES
IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING THE START OF THE
PERIOD...WAS PREDICTABLE. FOR THE MOST PART THE VARIOUS CAMPS HAVE
NOT ABANDONED THEIR RESPECTIVE SLNS...WITH GFS CONTINUING AS THE
PROGRESSIVE POSTER CHILD...BUT THE CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET ALL ON THE
SLOW AND DIGGY SIDE...WITH 12Z RUNS OF THE FORMER PAIR EVEN MORESO.
ENCOURAGING WAS GFS HALF STEP BACK TOWARD MORE DIGGING. THEREFORE...
HARD TO DENY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT WINDOW /ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
TRENDS WOULD PERHAPS PUSH BACK A PERIOD OR SO FOR BEST FORCING/.
INTRODUCED SOME LKLY POPS THRU THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE
MOMENT...TAPERING OFF SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FAR SE. WRAPPED UP LOWS
NOTORIOUS FOR SLOW PROGRESSION AND LOOKS TO BE ONE WHERE AN EVENTUAL
TROWAL STRUCTURE IS PROBABLE...ALONG WITH A HEALTHY INVERTED
TROUGH...FAVORING PCPN ALG/BEHIND. THESE TYPES OF SYSTEM ALSO SEEM
TO HAVE A TENDENCY TO BRING UP WARMER AND MOIST AIR...WRAPPING WELL
WESTWARD FOR A WHILE. CERTAINLY THE BETTER OF THE SNOW THREAT WOULD
BE BACK ALG/W OF THE INVERTED TROUGH...AND DO NOT HAVE SUGGESTIONS
OF A DRIER ELY TRAJECTORY TO HELP WET BULB THINGS. THEREFORE...KEPT
ANY SNOW MENTION LIMITED TO THE EXTREME WEST...WITH MIX TOWARD THE
JAMES VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ON A BIT EASTWARD TUE...BEFORE
STARTING A WHOLE SCALE CHANGEOVER TUE NIGHT. SOME LINGERING POPS
CONTINUED THRU THE NE/E ON WEDNESDAY.
THE END OF THE WEEK IS FEATURED DRY AT THIS POINT AS RIDGING
REBOUNDS THRU THE NRN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE MOVING OVER THU INTO EARLY
FRI COULD LEAD TO SOME CHILLY LOWS...ESPLY IF WRN AREAS HAVE ANY
DECENT SNOWCOVER. SOME COLD AIR SC MAY BE AROUND ON THU THRU ERN
CWA...BUT MAINLY CLEAR TO MO CLR EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT/FRI. FOR
NOW...DID NOT FULLY ACCEPT THE RAPIDITY OF THE WARMUP ON FRIDAY...
BUT WL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR ONCE THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY TO
MID WEEK SYSTEM IS DEFINED. /CHAPMAN
&&
.AVIATION...
PRETTY MUCH VFR THROUGH 0Z SUNDAY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE
SOME VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL. WE
WILL SEE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS AT SUX...AND POSSIBLY FSD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
$$
000
FXUS63 KABR 210206
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
806 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. TEMPERATURES WERE QUICK
TO FALL INITIALLY AS USUAL UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE ALRIGHT AS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALSO AS WIND STAYS
RATHER STRONG TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CONTINUE TO FALL AS
QUICKLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THIS CWA
IS CLAIMING RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE SUNNY SKY AND LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WORKING INTO THE UPPER 40S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ALREADY NUDGING UP INTO THE LOW 50S.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND PERSISTS RIGHT ON
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE TO 925HPA WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE IN THE 15
TO 30 KNOT RANGE...SO BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS STILL ON COURSE.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WORKS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. THIS FIRST LOW WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE REGION...MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS CLOUD FORMATION ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
FORECAST AREA /KATY AND K8D3 AND KETH AND KVVV/ SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE /THE ONE BEING WATCHED
CLOSELY/ STARTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE CWA AND THE SHORT RANGE
FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SATURATION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN REALLY GETTING GOING SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE WORKED TO
COORDINATE APPX THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA IN RATHER LOW-END POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THE WINT WX TYPES PROCEDURE TO DETERMINE
P-TYPE...SUNDAY NIGHT TURNS OUT TO BE A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN/FRZNG
RAIN AND/OR SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST
ZONES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO SHOWCASE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY WHILE THOSE STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES DRAW
WARMER AIR INTO THE CWA BEFORE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPENDING STORM MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS AROUND TUESDAY. THERE IS LITTLE CONSENSUS ON
TIMING. EC HAS SLOWED DOWN EVEN MORE...BRINGING THE MAIN BRUNT OF
THE SYSTEM INTO THE STATE TUE NIGHT/WED. GFS IS STILL THE
FASTER...MORE NORTHERLY (BUT SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS) OUTLIER. CANADIAN IS TRYING TO STRIKE A BALANCE BUT COULD
EASILY BE A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES (OR MORE) OFF OF FINAL
SOLUTION. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED TOWARD HPC SOLUTION FOR NOW.
WITH THAT IN MIND...KEPT POPS LIMITED TO LESS THAN 40 (LESS THAN
30 WHERE IT PLAYED WELL WITH OTHERS). PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN
THEN GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MON WILL LEND THEMSELVES TO AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IF NOT ALL SNOW. AFTER FROPA ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD
ENOUGH AIR TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MAY DROP DOWN TUE NIGHT/WED
AFTER THE MAIN SYSTEM EXITS EAST BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS OUT WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...
GOOD VFR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH BLUSTERY WINDS WILL
ARRIVE TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KEEFE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...KEEFE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
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