000
FXUS63 KFSD 090301
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
900 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS FALLING LIKE A ROCK WITH CLRG AND DECOUPLING IN NWRN CWA THIS
EVE...AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EWD OVER SD TNGT. WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
TEMPS FASTER THAN PREV FCST...AND MAY HAVE TO LWR LOWS SOME IN THE
TYPICAL LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER. 00Z ABR SOUNDING WOULD EVEN SUPPORT
SOME PATCHY GF ARND SR IN THE JAMES VALLEY WITH MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING. NEXT BATCH OF CIRRUS SHOULD MOVE INTO SWRN CWA LATE TNGT...
BUT IN THE MEANTIME MAY ALSO HAVE TO UPDATE ZFP FOR MORE CLRG TNGT./
RYRHOLM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SHUD CONT ACROSS ALL OF FCST AREA THRU 10/06Z. LOW AND MID LVL
MOISTURE VALUES QUITE LOW WITH DRYING LO LVL NWRLY FLOW TNGT AHD OF
SFC HIGH MOVG IN 12Z-10/00Z. NO WINDS INCLUDG GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20
KTS./WILLIAMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
THE REAL PBLM FOR TONIGHT IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER WILL PULL AWAY
AND SKIES CLEAR OUT ACRS CWA. THICKER CI W OF I29 HAS BEEN SHIFTING
EWD THRU THE AFTN AND WUD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EVE. SO WL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS EVE...GRADUALLY
CLEARING FM THE W OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY NW IA PC BUT SHUD SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY LATE AFTN. COOLEST LOWS TONIGHT WL BE ACRS WRN
CWA WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT THE SOONEST. OTHERWISE EXPECTING LOWS
GENLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NW.  /

SKIES WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO CLOUD BACK UP ON MONDAY AS
TRAILING WAVE MOVES QUICKLY NE INTO THE PLAINS. BULK OF THE HIGH LVL
CLDS WL AFFECT SERN 3/4 OF THE CWA...THICKEST S OF I90. WITH LOW SUN
ANGLE...WL CERTAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TENDENCY
FOR FLOW WKNG THRU THE DAY AS SFC RIDGE CNTR BUILDS INTO FAR WRN MN
BY EVNG.  HOWEVER...FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN LIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW DWPTS
MONDAY AND AGAIN THRU THE E ON TUE. FORTUNATELY...NOT A GREAT DEAL
OF WIND FOR MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF SFC RIDGE...WITH A STRONGER
GRADIENT OVER THE WEST ON TUESDAY.  ANY GREATER MIXING THAN MODELS
SUGGEST WL GET QUITE A BANG FOR THE BUCK AS FAR AS CRASHING DWPTS.

SKIES WL CLEAR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS WAVE PASSES BY...
AND WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOWS TO BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE RANGE. WL STILL BE DEALING WITH MIXING OF DRY AIR
OUT OF RETREATING/ LINGERING SFC RIDGE...SO KNOCKED DWPTS BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES THRU ERN HALF OF AREA. TUE SHUD BE THE SUNNIEST DAY
OF THE WK...SO LOOKING FOR DECENT WARMING WITH THE DRY AIR MASS...
ESPLY WHERE GRADIENT IS STRONGER THRU W.

AMOUNT OF CI SHUD BE INCREASING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...FIRST AS WAVE PUSHES THRU DEVELOPING MID LVL RIDGING TUE
NIGHT...AND PERIODICALLY THICKENING AND THINNING WITH WK IMPULSES
THURSDAY. WL BE BREEZY ESPLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUE NIGHT AND OVR
MUCH OF THE AREA WED BEFORE WNDS DECOUPLE...AS PREFRONTAL
GRADIENT/LLJ INCREASE WITH EACH WAVE MOVING THRU UPR RIDGE.
CONTINUED SLOW WARMING OF AIRMASS SHUD KEEP TMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INCREASING INVERSION/ADVECTION INCREASES DWPTS.

SPLIT FLOW PLAGUES THE FCST IN THE LONGER RANGE...AND DIFFICULTY
WHICH MDLS TYPICALLY HAVE WITH SPLIT FLOW CERTAINLY IN PLAY.
VARIATION IN GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE REALLY STARTING TO
BORDER ON THE RIDICULOUS...WITH 12Z GFS ONE OF THE LARGEST RUN TO
RUN CHANGES BY SAT/EARLY SUN AS HAVE EVER SEEN. THIS SOLUTION WAS
NOT EVEN HINTED AT BY EARLIER ENSEMBLE SETS...BUT SEEMS SOMEWHAT
MORE LKLY THAN OTHER NRN STREAM DOMINANT SLNS GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN DUMPING ENERGY INTO THE SWRN US...IF NOT ONLY A BIT TOO
QUICK WITH LARGE SCALE WAVE EJECTION. CONSIDERING LARGER COMMUNITY
OF SLNS...VARIATION OF 48H IN BNDRY PASSAGE /LTR THU TO LATE SAT/
AND HUGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN NRN STREAM ENERGY...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW AND SUGGESTS CAUTION. A CONTINUED BREEZY THURSDAY IS
A COMMON STARTING POINT...AND CONTINUATION OF PLENTY OF CI WITH
A MORE SLY THAN SW FLOW SHUD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WARMING SOMEWHAT
WITHIN VERY WARM DEEP ATMOSPHERE. APPROACH OF WRN TROUGH WL BRING
FIRST CHC FOR PCPN...AND KEPT IN A LOW CHC POP FROM THU NIGHT INTO
SAT WORKING SWRD WITH LOWER TO MID LVL BNDRY. FOR THE MOMENT...
RUNNING A DRY FCST SUNDAY...BUT ANYTHING SUGGESTING A DRIFT TOWARD
THE 12Z GFS AND ITS DEEP CLOSED SYSTEM LIFTING NWRD THRU PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND WOULD NECESSITATE WHOLESCALE CHANGES...INCLUDING
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AHEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
 /CHAPMAN

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 090132
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
732 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.UPDATE...
SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING ACROSS THE STATE...AND GOING SKY/MIN
TEMPERATURE GRIDS REFLECT THAT WELL. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
BELOW.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM..TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MONDAY
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND INCREASES
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE GRIDS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE NEXT 2 DAYS
WILL BE DRY WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.


.MID TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE MID TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAST MOVING WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL BE BE MOVING OVER THE AREA BRINGING ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE CWA. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US FROM THE PACIFIC AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND AFFECT THE CWA COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ONWARD. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES IN...KEEPING WARMER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS PRESSURES FALL OUT WEST IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE MID TERM.

.LONG TERM....FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM SET TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF STILL DISAGREE ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ...AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. GFS
PUSHES SYSTEM COMPLETELY THROUGH BY SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF HAS A
SLOWER SOLUTION. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THEREFORE...LEFT SLIGHT POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BOTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES RAPIDLY CLEARING FOR KATY...WHILE REST OF SITES ARE SKC.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GENERALLY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWING AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SCARLETT
LONG TERM...MOHR/GIONTA
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 082124
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
323 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE REAL PBLM FOR TONIGHT IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER WILL PULL AWAY
AND SKIES CLEAR OUT ACRS CWA. THICKER CI W OF I29 HAS BEEN SHIFTING
EWD THRU THE AFTN AND WUD EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EVE. SO WL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS EVE...GRADUALLY
CLEARING FM THE W OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY NW IA PC BUT SHUD SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY LATE AFTN. COOLEST LOWS TONIGHT WL BE ACRS WRN
CWA WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT THE SOONEST. OTHERWISE EXPECTING LOWS
GENLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NW.  /

SKIES WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO CLOUD BACK UP ON MONDAY AS
TRAILING WAVE MOVES QUICKLY NE INTO THE PLAINS. BULK OF THE HIGH LVL
CLDS WL AFFECT SERN 3/4 OF THE CWA...THICKEST S OF I90. WITH LOW SUN
ANGLE...WL CERTAINLY IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TENDENCY
FOR FLOW WKNG THRU THE DAY AS SFC RIDGE CNTR BUILDS INTO FAR WRN MN
BY EVNG.  HOWEVER...FOR THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN LIES WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LOW DWPTS
MONDAY AND AGAIN THRU THE E ON TUE. FORTUNATELY...NOT A GREAT DEAL
OF WIND FOR MONDAY WITH APPROACH OF SFC RIDGE...WITH A STRONGER
GRADIENT OVER THE WEST ON TUESDAY.  ANY GREATER MIXING THAN MODELS
SUGGEST WL GET QUITE A BANG FOR THE BUCK AS FAR AS CRASHING DWPTS.

SKIES WL CLEAR QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS WAVE PASSES BY...
AND WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOWS TO BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE RANGE. WL STILL BE DEALING WITH MIXING OF DRY AIR
OUT OF RETREATING/ LINGERING SFC RIDGE...SO KNOCKED DWPTS BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES THRU ERN HALF OF AREA. TUE SHUD BE THE SUNNIEST DAY
OF THE WK...SO LOOKING FOR DECENT WARMING WITH THE DRY AIR MASS...
ESPLY WHERE GRADIENT IS STRONGER THRU W.

AMOUNT OF CI SHUD BE INCREASING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...FIRST AS WAVE PUSHES THRU DEVELOPING MID LVL RIDGING TUE
NIGHT...AND PERIODICALLY THICKENING AND THINNING WITH WK IMPULSES
THURSDAY. WL BE BREEZY ESPLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUE NIGHT AND OVR
MUCH OF THE AREA WED BEFORE WNDS DECOUPLE...AS PREFRONTAL
GRADIENT/LLJ INCREASE WITH EACH WAVE MOVING THRU UPR RIDGE.
CONTINUED SLOW WARMING OF AIRMASS SHUD KEEP TMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...AND INCREASING INVERSION/ADVECTION INCREASES DWPTS.

SPLIT FLOW PLAGUES THE FCST IN THE LONGER RANGE...AND DIFFICULTY
WHICH MDLS TYPICALLY HAVE WITH SPLIT FLOW CERTAINLY IN PLAY.
VARIATION IN GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE REALLY STARTING TO
BORDER ON THE RIDICULOUS...WITH 12Z GFS ONE OF THE LARGEST RUN TO
RUN CHANGES BY SAT/EARLY SUN AS HAVE EVER SEEN. THIS SOLUTION WAS
NOT EVEN HINTED AT BY EARLIER ENSEMBLE SETS...BUT SEEMS SOMEWHAT
MORE LKLY THAN OTHER NRN STREAM DOMINANT SLNS GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN DUMPING ENERGY INTO THE SWRN US...IF NOT ONLY A BIT TOO
QUICK WITH LARGE SCALE WAVE EJECTION. CONSIDERING LARGER COMMUNITY
OF SLNS...VARIATION OF 48H IN BNDRY PASSAGE /LTR THU TO LATE SAT/
AND HUGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN NRN STREAM ENERGY...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY LOW AND SUGGESTS CAUTION. A CONTINUED BREEZY THURSDAY IS
A COMMON STARTING POINT...AND CONTINUATION OF PLENTY OF CI WITH
A MORE SLY THAN SW FLOW SHUD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR WARMING SOMEWHAT
WITHIN VERY WARM DEEP ATMOSPHERE. APPROACH OF WRN TROUGH WL BRING
FIRST CHC FOR PCPN...AND KEPT IN A LOW CHC POP FROM THU NIGHT INTO
SAT WORKING SWRD WITH LOWER TO MID LVL BNDRY. FOR THE MOMENT...
RUNNING A DRY FCST SUNDAY...BUT ANYTHING SUGGESTING A DRIFT TOWARD
THE 12Z GFS AND ITS DEEP CLOSED SYSTEM LIFTING NWRD THRU PLAINS
DURING THE WEEKEND WOULD NECESSITATE WHOLESCALE CHANGES...INCLUDING
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AHEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
 /CHAPMAN

&&

.AVIATION...
GENLY VFR ACRS CWA WITH SOME AREAS OF CIGS BKN030-040 THRU 03Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 082054
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
154 PM MST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES TROF INTO EASTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES NEAR
GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL RESULT IN MILD LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY AROUND 15F ABOVE AVERAGE.

EXTENDED...MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES REMAIN BETWEEN
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES COULD BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR AVERAGE
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&


.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 082030
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
230 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM..TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ALSO SETTLE INTO THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MONDAY
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND INCREASES
TUESDAY AS GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE GRIDS AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE NEXT 2 DAYS
WILL BE DRY WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.

.MID TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE MID TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE MODELS SHOW DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAST MOVING WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL BE BE MOVING OVER THE AREA BRINGING ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE CWA. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US FROM THE PACIFIC AND
INTENSIFYING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND AFFECT THE CWA COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND
ONWARD. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -RA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN STEADY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES IN...KEEPING WARMER
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. IT COULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS PRESSURES FALL OUT WEST IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE MID TERM.

.LONG TERM....FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM SET TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF STILL DISAGREE ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW ...AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. GFS
PUSHES SYSTEM COMPLETELY THROUGH BY SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF HAS A
SLOWER SOLUTION. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THEREFORE...LEFT SLIGHT POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BOTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OF ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BY EARLY EVENING AS THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES BY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SCARLETT
LONG TERM...MOHR/GIONTA
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 081543
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
940 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF CI WL CONT TO SPREAD NEWD THRU THE AFTN WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF CLOUD COVER OVR THE WRN CWA WITH MORE SUN EAST. SFC
LOW OVR NERN NEB AT 15Z WL CONT TO MOVE NEWD THIS AFTN. NO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS LOW WL BE THE
WINDS GOING FM ESE TO NNW AS THE LOW PASSES BY. WARMEST TEMPS THIS
AFTN SHUD BE ACRS NW IA WHERE MORE SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH WARMER
925 TEMPS. SO ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO FCST FOR THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ACRS THE CWA THRU 12Z MON. HIGH CLOUDS WL CONT TO STREAM NEWD
ACRS CWA THRU 00Z. ALSO WEAK SFC LOW OVER NERN NEB AT 15Z WL MOVE
NEWD INTO MN THRU THE AFTN. ESE SFCS WNDS AHEAD OF THIS LOW WL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NNW THRU THE AFTN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES BY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CNTRL AND
NE SD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N THIS MORNING...AS AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT PUSHES INTO ND. MIDLEVELS DRY OUT APPRECIABLY BEHIND THE
ADVECTION BAND THIS MORNING...AND LOOKING AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT RH
VALUES FROM 800 MB TO 400 MB ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. PROVIDED SUCH
DRY AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...BROAD WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT
REAR OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND STRENGHTENING MIDLEVEL BNDRY IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOULD SEE THICKER CIRRUS
THROUGH...OF WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME...BUT STILL A
NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES INTO NW
IA WITH LESS CIRRUS. STILL WAITING TO SEE SIGNS OF STRATUS THAT THE
MODELS ARE SO GUNG HO IN DEVELOPING. SHOULD STRATUS DEVELOP...IT
WILL BE ALONG A TIGHTENING FRONTAL BNDRY ALONG AND E OF I 29 LATE
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SHAVING A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGHS.

COLD FRONTAL BNDRY TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THUS FASTER CLEARING OF CLOUD
COVER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 20S INTO THE WEST. IN
GENERAL...HAVE LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR
STRONGER RADIATIVE PROCESSES.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA ON MON...SO
THE NICE WEATHER THEME CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND VERY
LITTLE WIND. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE...SOME HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO
SPILL INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. LOW TO MID LEVELS VERY DRY...SO ALMOST ZERO CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN AND THEREFORE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DROPPED
DEW POINTS MON AND TUE BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIODS AS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. DEW POINTS IN THE 20S MAY
NOT HOLD DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF MIXING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN MON PROVIDED LITTLE WIND...BUT TUE COULD BE A
DIFFERENT STORY AS SRLY WINDS BEGIN TO KICK IN TUE.

OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY.
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT WORTH WRITING HOME ABOUT AT THIS
POINT. 97

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 081522
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
922 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS STATE THIS MORNING...SHOWING UP
NICELY AS A BAROCLINIC LEAF ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. RADAR SHOWING
RETURNS IN THE EAST AS WELL AS ANOTHER BAND MOVING IN FROM THE
WESTERN SD. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS...AND CURRENT REPORT FROM SISSETON ONLY INDICATING
SPRINKLES FALLING FROM STRONGER ECHOES. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
INCLUDE SPRINKLES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS LOOK
OK...THOUGH 06Z GUIDANCE CAME IN MUCH COOLER FOR TODAY...BUT
TEMPS ALREADY WITHIN 5-10 DEGREES OF FCST HIGHS. WILL MAKE A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS PROJECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF...WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SPRINKLES.
SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE AOA
7K FT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR BELOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
RATHER DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. WILL
USE THE ADJMAV AS THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO STRAY AWAY FROM IT.
IN FACT...AFTER LOOKING AT THE ADJMAV OVER THE PAST SEVEN
DAYS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE BIAS AT ANY GIVEN FORECAST POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...WITH TEMPS AT H85
FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. MODELS SEEM TO
DEPICT THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING UP THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE THETA-E ADVECTION BROADENS MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL INITIALLY FALL AFTER SUNSET...WITH TEMPS BECOMING STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS AT H85 WARMING TO +7C ACROSS THE
CWA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD AIDE IN A WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE
EAST...TO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD OPENS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BUT WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IT WILL BRING MAYBE A FEW
CLOUDS. ALOFT THE H5 UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE AXIS FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
WILL BE RATHER QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE. BY
WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES INDUCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH
THAT THEN MOVES EAST. EARLY THURSDAY THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING ONSHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SET UP WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
AREA AND MORE MOISTURE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY A STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 7000 FEET TO
ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
FOR ABR AND ATY. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS WILL COME VIRGA/SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS AS THE LIFT IS STRONG AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY DRY.
WILL PUT IN SOME VICINITY SHRAS IN ALL TAF SITES. THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MOVES IN BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 080948
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
248 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS RESULTING FROM
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA...BUT
WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVEL EXPECT ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE
ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS. AN UPPER RIDGDE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MORE DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS CROSSES
THE REGION.

EXTENDED...MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME TIMING AND TRACK ISSUES REMAIN BETWEEN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES COULD BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR AVERAGE
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 080948
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO IS PROJECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF...WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SPRINKLES.
SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE AOA
7K FT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR BELOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
RATHER DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DUE TO THE AMPLE CLOUD COVER. WILL
USE THE ADJMAV AS THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO STRAY AWAY FROM IT.
IN FACT...AFTER LOOKING AT THE ADJMAV OVER THE PAST SEVEN
DAYS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE BIAS AT ANY GIVEN FORECAST POINT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...WITH TEMPS AT H85
FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. MODELS SEEM TO
DEPICT THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING UP THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE THETA-E ADVECTION BROADENS MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL INITIALLY FALL AFTER SUNSET...WITH TEMPS BECOMING STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH TEMPS AT H85 WARMING TO +7C ACROSS THE
CWA. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD AIDE IN A WELL MIXED
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE
EAST...TO THE MID 60S IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD OPENS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BUT WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IT WILL BRING MAYBE A FEW
CLOUDS. ALOFT THE H5 UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
RIDGE AXIS FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
WILL BE RATHER QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE. BY
WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES INDUCES A LEE SIDE TROUGH
THAT THEN MOVES EAST. EARLY THURSDAY THE TROUGH MOVES OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING ONSHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SET UP WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
AREA AND MORE MOISTURE. DURING THE DAY THURSDAY A STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WSR-88D IS DEPICTING
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM.
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO WORK WITH SO JUST EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...KEEFE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 080920
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
320 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NARROW BAND OF WARM ADVECTION SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CNTRL AND
NE SD WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N THIS MORNING...AS AN ELEVATED WARM
FRONT PUSHES INTO ND. MIDLEVELS DRY OUT APPRECIABLY BEHIND THE
ADVECTION BAND THIS MORNING...AND LOOKING AT 30 TO 50 PERCENT RH
VALUES FROM 800 MB TO 400 MB ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. PROVIDED SUCH
DRY AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...BROAD WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT
REAR OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND STRENGHTENING MIDLEVEL BNDRY IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOULD SEE THICKER CIRRUS
THROUGH...OF WHICH WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME...BUT STILL A
NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WARMEST TEMPERATURES INTO NW
IA WITH LESS CIRRUS. STILL WAITING TO SEE SIGNS OF STRATUS THAT THE
MODELS ARE SO GUNG HO IN DEVELOPING. SHOULD STRATUS DEVELOP...IT
WILL BE ALONG A TIGHTENING FRONTAL BNDRY ALONG AND E OF I 29 LATE
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST...OTHER THAN SHAVING A FEW DEGREES OFF
OF HIGHS.

COLD FRONTAL BNDRY TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH IS
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THUS FASTER CLEARING OF CLOUD
COVER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 20S INTO THE WEST. IN
GENERAL...HAVE LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TONIGHT FOR
STRONGER RADIATIVE PROCESSES.

CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA ON MON...SO
THE NICE WEATHER THEME CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND VERY
LITTLE WIND. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE...SOME HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO
SPILL INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. LOW TO MID LEVELS VERY DRY...SO ALMOST ZERO CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN AND THEREFORE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. DROPPED DEW
POINTS MON AND TUE BELOW GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIODS AS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. DEW POINTS IN THE 20S MAY
NOT HOLD DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF MIXING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN MON PROVIDED LITTLE WIND...BUT TUE COULD BE A
DIFFERENT STORY AS SRLY WINDS BEGIN TO KICK IN TUE.

OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY.
SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK AND EARLY INTO
THE WEEKEND...BUT EVEN THAT IS NOT WORTH WRITING HOME ABOUT AT THIS
POINT. 97

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 18Z MONDAY BUT A STRATOCU DECK COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 2500 FEET...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FSD AND SUX AREAS.
OTHERWISE...A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KFSD 080326
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
925 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
DVLPG SSWLY INFLOW AOB 700 MB FM NEB NWD INTO DVLPG E/W MID LVL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN SD ATTM. MID LVL CONVERGENCE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SPARKING OFF SPKLS/ISOLD -SHRA AND EVEN AN ISOLD -TSRA
IN SCNTRL SD LAST HOUR. THIS MID LVL LIFT AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD
DVLP NEWD FM WRN TO THE NRN CWA REST OF NGT...BUT ONLY WENT 20 POP
DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS IN LWR LVLS. RIGHT NOW PRETTY GOOD
DISCONNECT BTWN MID LVL BOUNDARY AND LWR LVL MOISTURE POOLING ALG
AND SOUTH OF SFC WMFNT IN SRN NEB. THIS MOISTURE AND PSBL LWR CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE NWD REST OF NIGHT AND AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF I90 BY MRNG.
IF THIS MOISTURE WERE TO ADVECT NWD ISENTROPICALLY IT COULD
THEORETICALLY BE USED AT SOME POINT SUN MRNG...ESP IN SWRN MN WHERE
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SURPRISE SHWRS/ISOLD TSRA. FOR
TNGT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING ENEWD OVER CWA SHOULD PREVENT MUCH
FURTHER TEMP DROP AT SOME POINT...AND FINE TUNED GRIDS FOR TEMPS AND
SKY BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. /RYRHOLM

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU 10Z. ISOLD HI BASED SHWRS INCLUDG A TSTM OR TWO WILL BE
FEEING OFF GNLY DRY AIR EVEN AT MID LVLS...WILL CONT TO WATCH BUT
FOR NOW THINK THEY WILL STAY A LOW HAZARD DUE TO ISOLD NATURE AS
THEY MOVE ACRS WRN TO FAR NRN FCST AREA. MVFR CIG HAZARD EXISTS SERN
FCST AREA...MAINLY SUX TO SPW...10Z-18Z. DRYNESS OF AIR NEAR SFC
SHUD KEEP ANY CIGS NO WORSE THAN 2K FT. AFT 18Z AND THRU 09/06Z
EXPECT GNLY VFR CONDS WITH PSL ISOL -SHRA MAINLY ERN PART OF FCST
AREA. WITH SFC TROF MOVG UP TO SRN FCST AREA DURG PD AND THEN
EWD...THE DRY LO LVL AIR SEEMS TO PRECLUDE MORE WDSPRD LWRG OF CONDS
BLO VFR...SUCH AS WUD OTRW OCCUR WITH THIS TYPE OF SYS./WILLIAMS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST PBLM FOR TONIGHT WL BE LOW TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER.
CURRENTLY ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD ACRS CWA ATTM. BOTH
GFS AND NAM PROG HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND
SPREAD NEWD ACRS CWA TONIGHT...WITH MAIN IMPACT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACRS
WRN INTO NRN CWA. BASED ON SAT...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. SO WL GIVE
HIGHEST HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE TO THOSE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE NW IA WL REMAIN MOCLR THRU MOST OF NIGHT AND THIS AREA LIKELY
TO SEE COOLEST LOWS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HWVR...BY LATE
TONIGHT...LLM INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO BNDRY LIFTING NWD INTO NEB AND
IA. TIME SECTIONS OF BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW POT FOR STRATUS FORMING
LATE TONIGHT AS LLM GETS TRAPPED BLO H85 INVERSION. WITH ELY FLOW
DEVELOPING CAN NOT RULE OUT STRATUS ACRS FAR SRN CWA LATE TONIGHT
AND THUS WL INCREASE CLOUDS ACRS NW IA AND FAR SERN SD AFTER 09Z.
BELIEVE LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS WL BE BEFORE 08Z AND THEN SLOWLY RISE
AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER.

TIME SECTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT AT LEAST SOME STRATUS WL
BE AN ISSUE LIFTING NWRD WITH LOW LVL WARM FRONTAL BNDRY THRU NW IA
AND SWRN MN...SPREADING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WWRD THRU PARTS OF FAR
SERN SE/NERN NEBRASKA. IN FACT...SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR TOWARD
TOP OF STABLE LAYER IS PRESENT...AND IF JUST A BIT DRIER ALFT WOULD
HAVE TO REALLY CONSIDER SOME AREAS OF DZ/FG...ESPLY FROM SPW/SHL
AREAS NWRD THROUGH THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE LTR MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTN. SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH THREAT TO NOT MENTION
AT THIS TIME IN FCST...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. TRACK RECORD ON
HANDLING THE LOW LVL RH HAS NOT BEEN GOOD IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY WARM
PATTERN OF LATE...REFERENCE TO PAST THU NIGHT/FRIDAY OVERFORECAST.
ON THE GRAND SCHEME...DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM ARE NOT VERY FORMIDABLE
DOWN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...FOCUSED PRIMARILY WELL TO NORTH OF AREA.
STILL...WITH AT LEAST WK DIV Q SLIDING BY DURING AFTN/EARLY EVNG
AND WITH SOME MID BASED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS MID LVL FRONTAL BNDRY
SLIPS SEWRD WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE CLOSER TO NEUTRALITY IN TERMS OF
STABILITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR
AREAS E OF I29 AND TOWARD THE IA GREAT LAKES. EVEN IF NOT A MAJOR
STRATUS EVENT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO AFFECT TMPS
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ELY FLOW EXPECTED INTO MIDDAY. WL PLAY QUITE
CONSERVATIVE THRU SWRN MN AND NRN PORTIONS OF NW IA...BUT ALLOW
A DECENT MIXING THRU FAR SRN CWA...AND ALSO IN WRN AREAS WHERE FLOW
SHUD TURN TO A DRIER N/NW DURING THE AFTN.

MID LVL FRONTAL BNDRY WL CONTINUE TO WORK SWRD SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WL LKLY STALL SOMEWHAT FOR A TIME MONDAY AS ALL MDLS
INDICATE ANOTHER WAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW SLIDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO
IA. AT THE SAME TIME...GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR WL UNDERCUT IN THE
LOWER LVLS AS STRONG RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO ERN SD
THRU THE DAY. THIS SHUD KEEP THREAT OF PCPN CLEAR OF AREA...BUT
WOULD STILL EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO BE QUITE PREVALENT THRU THE
AFTN MONDAY IN AT LEAST THE SERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. EVEN IF CLDS END
UP SLIPPING A BIT MORE SWRD...THE LOW SUN ANGLE WL MAKE TMPS TO THE
NORTH SUFFER. RAPID CLEARING IN ORDER ON MONDAY EVENING...AND WITH
LITTLE REASON TO EXPECT AIR MASS TO BE MUCH MORE MOIST THAN CURRENT
SFC RIDGE /LOTS OF 20S DWPTS/ WITH POTENTIAL EXCEPTION OF LESS MIXED
AND CLOUDY SRN CWA...LIGHT GRADIENT SHUD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE TEMP PLUNGE.

TUESDAY...INCREASING RETURN FLOW AS RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO E...BUT SOME
CAUTION TO SPEED AS MAY BE DEALING WITH A TEMPORARY PATTERN SLOWDOWN
IF REMNANTS OF IDA KICK UP SOME BETTER NEGATIVE PV INTO ERN RIDGING.
TMPS FAVOR TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF SHALLOW MIXING...AWAY FROM COOLER
GFS POTENTIAL. SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN BY LATE DAY THRU W.
SMALL WINDOW AGAIN FOR SOME BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING FOR FAR ERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE /WED THRU SAT/ PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN CONFINES OF GREATER
ENSEMBLE SET...AND EVEN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF EC/CANADIAN DO NOT
LEND MUCH TO LATCH ON TO.  FOR MOST PART...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE HPC NUMBERS...WITH EXCEPTION OF INCREASING
POPS SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT OF DEVIANT ENSEMBLE NUMBERS.

EXPECT AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH TROUGH DIGGING THRU W AND RIDGING
SHIFTING INTO THE MS VALLEY THRU WED WL PRODUCE A BREEZY TO WINDY
PERIOD WED INTO THU ACRS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARMER THAN
NORMAL. IF NOT FOR THREAT FOR SOME FAIRLY THICK CI...WOULD LKLY HAVE
GONE SOMEWHAT WARMER. VARIOUS TIMING/CONFIGURATION OF TROUGHING...
RANGING FROM A MASSIVE CLOSED LOW LIFTING THRU WRN PLAINS ON A FEW
PRIOR RUNS...TO MORE NRN STREAM DOMINANT 12Z SLNS...SO SETTLED
MAINLY FOR LOW CHC FOR PCPN THU THRU SAT...AND ALLOWED FOR TMPS TO
SLIDE DOWN WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN THREAT. FOR NOW...DID NOT BRING
TMPS DOWN ENOUGH TO MENTION MIX WITH SNOW. /CHAPMAN

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 080234
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
734 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRA ACRS
SCNTRL SD THROUGH THE NIGHT. KUNR 00Z SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME
MINIMAL INSTABILITY ABOVE 700MB...AND WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ALOFT SOME ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP FROM THE NEB
PANHANDLE THROUGH SCNTRL SD. EVEN THOUGH AMS IS QUITE DRY...THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SPRINKLES (AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE WEST
OF WHITE RIVER). REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH STILL A POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW -SHRA ACRS NWRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WEAK TROF ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ND ON SUNDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LIFT/MARGINAL QPF ACROSS NW SD TONIGHT...SO
WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

EXTENDED...MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER
TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL GFS DIFFERS FROM
ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND LATEST EC WITH TIMING OF THIS TROF. OP GFS
BRINGS TROF THROUGH MUCH EARLIER...WHILE OTHER SOLNS KEEP RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL SIDE WITH SLOWER
SOLN FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR AVERAGE LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$
JOHNSON

000
FXUS63 KABR 080232
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
832 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.UPDATE...
CIGS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN AOA 12KFT...AND ANY ECHOS ON RADAR ARE
UNLIKELY TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500/600 HPA...ABOUT 40J/KG CAPE...HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME OBSERVED LIGHTNING SOUTH OF THE WHITE RIVER.
THEREFORE...AMENDED FORECAST FOR MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN
UNCHANGED. NO CHANGES TO AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPS MILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO ONLY BRING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL VERY MILD. GFS/NAM MOSTLY
DRY WITH SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.


MID-TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BASED MORE OFF THE 12Z GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
/EITHER ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE/ IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WORKING
SEWD THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CAA FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS
TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED...AS BY TUESDAY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
SET BACK UP ACROSS THE CWA...STARTING OUT WEST FIRST...AND THEN
SPREADING FURTHER EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
SOUTHERLY 925HPA WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND 850HPA WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP BEING A
RATHER BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL...IT STILL
APPEARS AS THOUGH PRETTY MUCH EVERY FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM SET TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THIS TIME AS WELL. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
GFS SEEMS FASTER WHILE ECMWF SEEMS DEEPER. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
SLIGHT POPS THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. AS MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE.





&&

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY
NORTH.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SCARLETT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 072138
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FCST PBLM FOR TONIGHT WL BE LOW TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER.
CURRENTLY ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD ACRS CWA ATTM. BOTH
GFS AND NAM PROG HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONT TO INCREASE AND
SPREAD NEWD ACRS CWA TONIGHT...WITH MAIN IMPACT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACRS
WRN INTO NRN CWA. BASED ON SAT...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. SO WL GIVE
HIGHEST HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE TO THOSE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE NW IA WL REMAIN MOCLR THRU MOST OF NIGHT AND THIS AREA LIKELY
TO SEE COOLEST LOWS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HWVR...BY LATE
TONIGHT...LLM INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO BNDRY LIFTING NWD INTO NEB AND
IA. TIME SECTIONS OF BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW POT FOR STRATUS FORMING
LATE TONIGHT AS LLM GETS TRAPPED BLO H85 INVERSION. WITH ELY FLOW
DEVELOPING CAN NOT RULE OUT STRATUS ACRS FAR SRN CWA LATE TONIGHT
AND THUS WL INCREASE CLOUDS ACRS NW IA AND FAR SERN SD AFTER 09Z.
BELIEVE LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS WL BE BEFORE 08Z AND THEN SLOWLY RISE
AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER.

TIME SECTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT AT LEAST SOME STRATUS WL
BE AN ISSUE LIFTING NWRD WITH LOW LVL WARM FRONTAL BNDRY THRU NW IA
AND SWRN MN...SPREADING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WWRD THRU PARTS OF FAR
SERN SE/NERN NEBRASKA. IN FACT...SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR TOWARD
TOP OF STABLE LAYER IS PRESENT...AND IF JUST A BIT DRIER ALFT WOULD
HAVE TO REALLY CONSIDER SOME AREAS OF DZ/FG...ESPLY FROM SPW/SHL
AREAS NWRD THROUGH THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE LTR MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTN. SEEMS A LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH THREAT TO NOT MENTION
AT THIS TIME IN FCST...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. TRACK RECORD ON
HANDLING THE LOW LVL RH HAS NOT BEEN GOOD IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY WARM
PATTERN OF LATE...REFERENCE TO PAST THU NIGHT/FRIDAY OVERFORECAST.
ON THE GRAND SCHEME...DYNAMICS WITH SYSTEM ARE NOT VERY FORMIDABLE
DOWN INTO THE NRN PLAINS...FOCUSED PRIMARILY WELL TO NORTH OF AREA.
STILL...WITH AT LEAST WK DIV Q SLIDING BY DURING AFTN/EARLY EVNG
AND WITH SOME MID BASED MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS MID LVL FRONTAL BNDRY
SLIPS SEWRD WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE CLOSER TO NEUTRALITY IN TERMS OF
STABILITY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET A PASSING SPRINKLE FOR
AREAS E OF I29 AND TOWARD THE IA GREAT LAKES. EVEN IF NOT A MAJOR
STRATUS EVENT...SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO AFFECT TMPS
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ELY FLOW EXPECTED INTO MIDDAY. WL PLAY QUITE
CONSERVATIVE THRU SWRN MN AND NRN PORTIONS OF NW IA...BUT ALLOW
A DECENT MIXING THRU FAR SRN CWA...AND ALSO IN WRN AREAS WHERE FLOW
SHUD TURN TO A DRIER N/NW DURING THE AFTN.

MID LVL FRONTAL BNDRY WL CONTINUE TO WORK SWRD SUN NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...AND WL LKLY STALL SOMEWHAT FOR A TIME MONDAY AS ALL MDLS
INDICATE ANOTHER WAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW SLIDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO
IA. AT THE SAME TIME...GOOD PUSH OF DRIER AIR WL UNDERCUT IN THE
LOWER LVLS AS STRONG RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO ERN SD
THRU THE DAY. THIS SHUD KEEP THREAT OF PCPN CLEAR OF AREA...BUT
WOULD STILL EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO BE QUITE PREVALENT THRU THE
AFTN MONDAY IN AT LEAST THE SERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. EVEN IF CLDS END
UP SLIPPING A BIT MORE SWRD...THE LOW SUN ANGLE WL MAKE TMPS TO THE
NORTH SUFFER. RAPID CLEARING IN ORDER ON MONDAY EVENING...AND WITH
LITTLE REASON TO EXPECT AIR MASS TO BE MUCH MORE MOIST THAN CURRENT
SFC RIDGE /LOTS OF 20S DWPTS/ WITH POTENTIAL EXCEPTION OF LESS MIXED
AND CLOUDY SRN CWA...LIGHT GRADIENT SHUD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIVE TEMP PLUNGE.

TUESDAY...INCREASING RETURN FLOW AS RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO E...BUT SOME
CAUTION TO SPEED AS MAY BE DEALING WITH A TEMPORARY PATTERN SLOWDOWN
IF REMNANTS OF IDA KICK UP SOME BETTER NEGATIVE PV INTO ERN RIDGING.
TMPS FAVOR TOWARD WARMER SIDE OF SHALLOW MIXING...AWAY FROM COOLER
GFS POTENTIAL. SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN BY LATE DAY THRU W.
SMALL WINDOW AGAIN FOR SOME BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING FOR FAR ERN CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED RANGE /WED THRU SAT/ PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN CONFINES OF GREATER
ENSEMBLE SET...AND EVEN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF EC/CANADIAN DO NOT
LEND MUCH TO LATCH ON TO.  FOR MOST PART...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE HPC NUMBERS...WITH EXCEPTION OF INCREASING
POPS SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT OF DEVIANT ENSEMBLE NUMBERS.

EXPECT AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH TROUGH DIGGING THRU W AND RIDGING
SHIFTING INTO THE MS VALLEY THRU WED WL PRODUCE A BREEZY TO WINDY
PERIOD WED INTO THU ACRS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS REMAINING WARMER THAN
NORMAL. IF NOT FOR THREAT FOR SOME FAIRLY THICK CI...WOULD LKLY HAVE
GONE SOMEWHAT WARMER. VARIOUS TIMING/CONFIGURATION OF TROUGHING...
RANGING FROM A MASSIVE CLOSED LOW LIFTING THRU WRN PLAINS ON A FEW
PRIOR RUNS...TO MORE NRN STREAM DOMINANT 12Z SLNS...SO SETTLED
MAINLY FOR LOW CHC FOR PCPN THU THRU SAT...AND ALLOWED FOR TMPS TO
SLIDE DOWN WITH MORE CLOUDS/PCPN THREAT. FOR NOW...DID NOT BRING
TMPS DOWN ENOUGH TO MENTION MIX WITH SNOW. /CHAPMAN


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU 12Z SUN. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z SUN S OF I90
AS LOW LEVEL MOSITURE INCREASES BLO INVERSION. IF STRATUS CAN FORM
IT WL BE AOB OVC020.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KUNR 072056
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
156 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WEAK TROF ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ND ON SUNDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LIFT/MARGINAL QPF ACROSS NW SD TONIGHT...SO
WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

EXTENDED...MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER
TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL GFS DIFFERS FROM
ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND LATEST EC WITH TIMING OF THIS TROF. OP GFS
BRINGS TROF THROUGH MUCH EARLIER...WHILE OTHER SOLNS KEEP RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL SIDE WITH SLOWER
SOLN FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR AVERAGE LATE
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&




&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 072001
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
201 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPS MILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO ONLY BRING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL VERY MILD. GFS/NAM MOSTLY
DRY WITH SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.

.MID-TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BASED MORE OFF THE 12Z GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
/EITHER ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE/ IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WORKING
SEWD THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CAA FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS
TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED...AS BY TUESDAY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
SET BACK UP ACROSS THE CWA...STARTING OUT WEST FIRST...AND THEN
SPREADING FURTHER EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
SOUTHERLY 925HPA WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND 850HPA WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP BEING A
RATHER BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL...IT STILL
APPEARS AS THOUGH PRETTY MUCH EVERY FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM SET TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THIS TIME AS WELL. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
GFS SEEMS FASTER WHILE ECMWF SEEMS DEEPER. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
SLIGHT POPS THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. AS MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY
NORTH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SCARLETT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 071617
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1015 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED ACRS CWA. ANOTHER MILD DAY. SFC HIGH OVR
SCNTRL SD THIS AM WL DRIFT EWD THIS AFTN. WNDS SHUD ACTUALLY BECOME
LIGHTER. WEAK CAA ACRS NRN CWA WL PBLY KEEPS HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN
FRI BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORM. SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST TEMP GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTN ATTM.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU 12Z SUN. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z SUN S OF I90
AS LLM INCREASE FM THE S.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW MAKING FOR ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF NICE DAYS TODAY. COLD
FRONT WHICH ATTM IS PUSHING ACROSS THE SRN CWA WILL COOL THINGS OFF
SOME FROM YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN NW IA WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WILL START THE MORNING OFF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES...BUT THEN WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN AS A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
WAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG AND EAST OF
I29. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL COOLING AND CONVERGENCE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF MOISTURE. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
VERY LOW...SO ONLY HAVE MENTION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS INTO SW MN
SUN AFTERNOON AND DRY ELSEWHERE. SUN SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER SUN
DESPITE SRLY RETURN FLOW...AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER HOLDS
TEMPERATURES DOWN.

NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MON...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT
MAY BE ABLE TO RING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MO
VALLEY...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MIDLEVEL FRONT. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NO MENTION OF POPS AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MIDLEVEL
BNDRY WILL SIT JUST S INTO NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA MON NIGHT...SO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE. SHOULD BE A MAX RADIATION TYPE NIGHT...THUS HAVE LOW
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

DRY ZONAL FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...SO LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND BUT STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FLOW PATTERN AT THAT POINT. 97

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 071459
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
859 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ALL DAY.
LACK OF GOOD MIXING MAY KEEP TEMPS A DEGREE OR 2 BELOW FORECAST
HIGHS...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CHANGE. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT PACKAGE FOR TODAY.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER DAY. A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S...OR SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. A LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MIXING WINDS...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE WARMER AIR LOCKED IN
THE INVERSION.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL
INTERACT WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A SCHC FOR RAIN IN
THE NW CWA. OVERALL SUPPORT IS LACKING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. PER TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SPRINKLES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER WARM
NOVEMBER DAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE WELL ON A QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL H5 PACIFIC TROUGH OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
MINOR TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT SETS UP A WEAK
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT LASTS UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE WESTERN
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAVE STUCK WITH DRY GRIDS. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURE
GRIDS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KUNR 071038
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
340 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
LATE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVED IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST
TODAY...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE MORE SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED...MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR AVERAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KABR 070938
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER NICE NOVEMBER DAY. A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY IN THE FORM OF A WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S...OR SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. A LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MIXING WINDS...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE WARMER AIR LOCKED IN
THE INVERSION.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS...WHICH WILL
INTERACT WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A SCHC FOR RAIN IN
THE NW CWA. OVERALL SUPPORT IS LACKING AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. PER TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED SPRINKLES ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER WARM
NOVEMBER DAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE WELL ON A QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL H5 PACIFIC TROUGH OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A
MINOR TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT SETS UP A WEAK
BLOCKING PATTERN THAT LASTS UNTIL ABOUT WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE WESTERN
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAVE STUCK WITH DRY GRIDS. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURE
GRIDS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THE RULE ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT HAS
PASSED MUCH OF THE REGION BUT CONDITIONS ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT FEW
CLOUDS ARE NOTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...KEEFE
AVIATION...KEEFE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

000
FXUS63 KFSD 070934
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
834 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW MAKING FOR ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF NICE DAYS TODAY. COLD
FRONT WHICH ATTM IS PUSHING ACROSS THE SRN CWA WILL COOL THINGS OFF
SOME FROM YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN NW IA WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WILL START THE MORNING OFF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES...BUT THEN WILL SEE SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

INCREASING CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO SUN AS A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
WAVE SLIPS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED
BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG AND EAST OF
I29. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL COOLING AND CONVERGENCE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A BIT OF MOISTURE. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
VERY LOW...SO ONLY HAVE MENTION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS INTO SW MN
SUN AFTERNOON AND DRY ELSEWHERE. SUN SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER SUN
DESPITE SRLY RETURN FLOW...AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER HOLDS
TEMPERATURES DOWN.

NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MON...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY...BUT
MAY BE ABLE TO RING OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MO
VALLEY...DEPENDING ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A MIDLEVEL FRONT. AT
THIS TIME HAVE NO MENTION OF POPS AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MIDLEVEL
BNDRY WILL SIT JUST S INTO NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE CWA MON NIGHT...SO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
THE RULE. SHOULD BE A MAX RADIATION TYPE NIGHT...THUS HAVE LOW
TEMPERATURES A GOOD 3 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

DRY ZONAL FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...SO LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND BUT STILL A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FLOW PATTERN AT THAT POINT. 97

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$